Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 660 33.84% 34.62 -1.52 74.55% -0.542 0.0302
Dahan Insurrection 4 414 36.23% 49.07 6.553 59.18% -0.9 -0.4989
Elemental Invocation 1 70 50.0% 34.7 0.149 77.14% 0.062 0.5273
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3109 19.04% 46.09 4.138 73.46% -0.32 0.0556
Powers Long Forgotten 1 190 63.49% 29.59 -1.577 64.21% -0.572 -0.1255
Rituals of Terror 3 216 35.51% 44.12 3.91 69.91% -0.81 -0.1879
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 319 71.38% 37.18 1.936 66.46% -0.672 -0.0479
Second Wave 0 1885 41.07% 28.42 -2.326 78.41% -0.638 -0.2194
The Great River 3 77 46.75% 29.66 -1.513 58.44% -1.885 -0.4002
Ward the Shores 2 245 39.83% 32.6 -0.619 64.08% -1.415 -0.3843

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 39226 37.89% 36.74 0.562 75.75% -1.595 -1.2399
1 Thematic 1750 39.09% 36.22 0.195 69.03% -1.629 -1.1319
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9080 52.43% 32.9 -0.659 70.12% -1.005 -0.8155
2 Coastline 1264 48.49% 33.17 -0.593 72.78% -0.917 -0.7825
2 Fragment 254 61.51% 34.76 0.023 67.32% -0.864 -0.4382
2 Heart 176 43.18% 34.29 -0.217 76.14% -1.106 -0.8151
2 Opposite Shores 2042 50.79% 29.21 -2.336 66.06% -1.297 -1.0704
2 Thematic 757 55.42% 31.91 -0.782 64.2% -0.852 -0.8074
2 Top to Top 281 48.4% 32.72 -0.932 67.62% -1.25 -1.1336
3 Coastline 59 43.1% 36.59 1.323 71.19% 0.104 0.0657
3 Other 345 50.72% 34.08 -0.269 76.23% -0.225 0.1769
3 Round (Default) 5102 45.8% 34.48 -0.043 74.46% 0.032 0.0635
3 Sunrise 23 52.17% 39.91 2.552 82.61% 0.724 0.4712
3 Thematic 216 55.81% 33.42 -0.494 68.98% 0.201 -0.1377
4 Coastline 16 37.5% 45.69 5.859 93.75% 1.838 1.9608
4 Leaf 16 53.33% 29.19 -3.609 43.75% -0.327 -0.2474
4 Other 308 42.02% 35.61 0.605 78.9% 0.748 0.8293
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 28.0 1.022 100.0% 0.115 -0.6773
4 Thematic 804 38.15% 40.81 2.108 75.5% 1.432 0.3544
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3647 39.5% 35.62 0.035 76.28% 0.881 0.8486
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 4.123 100.0% 0.302 0.2521
5 Other 127 36.22% 38.96 2.184 91.34% 2.052 1.8353
5 Thematic 24 45.83% 51.21 7.62 91.67% 2.538 -0.2289

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1973 32.42 -2.228 53.52% -1.438 0.63
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1668 34.69 -1.045 59.17% -1.198 0.719
All Things Weaken 2078 31.48 -2.526 53.71% -1.496 0.6644
Back Against the Wall 1699 34.2 -1.285 56.56% -1.294 0.7986
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1813 29.35 -3.766 51.85% -1.539 0.6819
Downward Spiral 2152 32.57 -1.961 60.69% -1.119 0.895
Erosion of Will 1840 32.31 -2.34 52.72% -1.461 0.7507
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 991 37.09 0.282 75.18% -0.443 0.2689
Memory Fades to Dust 2054 31.32 -2.516 56.57% -1.348 0.8678
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2061 32.28 -2.197 57.74% -1.292 0.7277
Promising Farmlands 1775 31.26 -2.871 52.85% -1.454 0.7604
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 697 38.46 1.161 83.21% 0.03 0.4471
Thriving Communities 2064 30.4 -3.045 54.17% -1.437 0.6699
Unnatural Proliferation 2257 34.1 -1.262 60.48% -1.186 0.8943
Untended Land Crumbles 2074 29.68 -3.392 51.4% -1.587 0.5086

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7824 40.79% 35.22 -0.218 75.68% 0.344 -0.729
B 8523 42.42% 34.21 -0.592 73.81% 0.282 -0.8823
C 11317 40.21% 37.62 0.818 74.68% 0.397 -0.9996
D 7259 43.65% 33.23 -0.974 73.01% 0.229 -0.929
E 7351 41.19% 35.49 -0.033 74.55% 0.336 -0.9213
F 7532 40.44% 36.41 0.312 75.5% 0.37 -0.8564
G 6118 41.89% 35.86 0.138 74.16% 0.35 -0.8622
H 6256 44.08% 35.58 0.141 73.96% 0.359 -0.8625
East 597 47.05% 38.54 1.208 67.84% -0.462 -1.3975
Northeast 650 46.92% 37.0 1.028 71.54% -0.188 -1.0575
Northwest 658 39.51% 36.92 0.667 68.69% -0.355 -1.2999
Southeast 504 39.17% 36.59 0.229 72.62% -0.302 -1.2851
Southwest 399 41.1% 31.6 -1.611 71.18% -0.486 -1.1116
West 532 45.47% 34.6 -0.363 64.1% -0.804 -1.4689

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 414 0.0% 21.6 -6.153 87.2% -1.007 1.0323
Not Using Events or Tokens 24 40.0% 22.21 -4.746 87.5% 0.016 0.2365
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2365 10.3% 51.09 5.077 92.05% 0.939 0.2327
Start of Game Growth 3441 14.2% 48.57 4.267 90.0% 0.52 0.0613
Unlimited Undo 6722 31.41% 41.07 1.767 82.22% 0.284 -0.1181
Using Tokens but Not Events 5953 30.99% 28.8 -3.255 81.77% -0.225 -0.2707

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3501 36.95% 36.32 0.622 75.81% 0.064 0.2106
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 769 54.38% 30.64 -1.418 69.83% -0.263 -0.0267
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1333 44.65% 32.61 -0.723 73.22% -0.144 -0.23
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1730 37.51% 35.16 0.352 77.92% 0.076 -0.2929
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1450 39.82% 34.18 -0.125 74.9% -0.078 -0.3106
Fractured Days Split the Sky 530 40.94% 37.68 0.988 73.77% -0.119 0.2145
Heart of the Wildfire 2849 59.04% 32.06 -1.334 65.18% -0.301 0.0461
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3858 39.7% 37.75 1.23 76.67% 0.268 -0.0299
Lightning's Swift Strike 1845 49.89% 33.45 -0.439 70.51% -0.236 0.0321
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1203 41.33% 39.38 1.377 79.88% 0.476 0.1157
Many Minds Move as One 1337 40.01% 35.81 0.544 80.7% 0.306 -0.2076
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2016 41.95% 36.82 0.501 76.39% 0.057 -0.1404
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1440 45.37% 34.03 -0.04 75.42% 0.098 0.1451
River Surges in Sunlight 2208 43.91% 35.47 0.332 73.51% -0.078 0.0888
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1903 43.42% 36.79 0.189 73.31% -0.183 -0.0338
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 946 52.23% 31.25 -1.213 70.3% -0.248 0.2009
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1616 37.31% 39.53 1.668 78.96% 0.324 0.2598
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1442 38.65% 35.08 0.283 79.68% 0.315 0.53
Thunderspeaker 1298 42.65% 33.96 -0.291 73.57% -0.139 -0.0794
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 4614 64.2% 29.03 -2.533 65.28% -0.343 -0.3068
Vital Strength of the Earth 1167 42.3% 29.57 -2.227 70.09% -0.499 0.3655
Volcano Looming High 542 51.11% 33.8 -0.869 68.45% -0.253 -0.3543

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Jagged Shards Push From the Earth 85.69%
Plows Shatter On Rocky Ground 71.31%
Scarred and Stony Land 91.04%
Stubborn Solidity 92.47%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8687 22.34 8.4%
II 25116 30.71 73.23%
III 22620 34.23 90.23%
IV 9097 37.48 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 728
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20101
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18067
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8984
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1035
Lose: Adversary condition 7731
Win: Sacrifice victory 325
Lose: Scenario condition 727
Win: Scenario condition 402
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7267
Lose: Spirit destroyed 153

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.445 Win Model: -0.225

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.126 Win Model: -0.832
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 41224 37.92% 36.74 75.53%
2 13787 52.24% 32.31 69.36%
3 5717 46.44% 34.49 74.36%
4 4792 39.23% 36.53 76.34%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)