Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 820 35.33% 34.35 -1.664 71.83% -0.599 -0.026
Dahan Insurrection 4 536 35.45% 49.04 6.585 60.82% -0.883 -0.4827
Despicable Theft 2 38 44.74% 33.74 0.893 68.42% -0.778 -0.4952
Elemental Invocation 1 253 49.8% 33.5 -1.088 65.61% -0.554 -0.1147
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3771 19.6% 47.08 4.454 74.41% -0.238 0.1275
Powers Long Forgotten 1 245 61.48% 30.64 -1.46 62.45% -0.69 -0.2492
Rituals of Terror 3 258 37.5% 42.23 3.387 68.6% -0.887 -0.2432
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 363 70.44% 37.16 1.945 69.15% -0.613 0.0285
Second Wave 0 2464 40.77% 28.5 -2.422 77.92% -0.675 -0.2466
The Great River 3 130 47.69% 30.2 -1.339 60.0% -1.787 -0.3276
Ward the Shores 2 297 39.72% 32.43 -0.731 62.96% -1.463 -0.4262

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 48309 37.7% 37.06 0.615 75.52% -1.625 -1.2924
1 Thematic 2217 39.71% 36.1 0.16 69.69% -1.546 -1.0474
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11118 52.64% 32.84 -0.78 70.01% -1.028 -0.8274
2 Coastline 1554 48.51% 33.54 -0.571 72.65% -0.931 -0.7768
2 Fragment 320 61.01% 35.35 0.246 70.0% -0.786 -0.3903
2 Heart 231 51.08% 31.97 -1.3 68.4% -1.494 -1.1715
2 Opposite Shores 2448 49.63% 29.49 -2.403 67.03% -1.315 -1.086
2 Thematic 881 54.66% 32.01 -0.9 63.79% -0.81 -0.7485
2 Top to Top 357 48.18% 33.51 -0.699 69.19% -1.199 -1.067
3 Coastline 72 40.85% 35.92 1.008 72.22% 0.104 0.0656
3 Other 415 48.43% 33.95 -0.342 78.31% -0.184 0.2363
3 Round (Default) 6474 44.92% 34.7 -0.041 75.32% 0.075 0.1312
3 Sunrise 26 53.85% 38.69 2.18 80.77% 0.7 0.5059
3 Thematic 265 55.68% 33.37 -0.516 68.3% 0.28 -0.0489
4 Coastline 26 42.31% 38.69 2.429 80.77% 1.169 1.2943
4 Leaf 22 52.38% 30.64 -2.663 50.0% -0.109 -0.0622
4 Other 376 40.37% 34.93 0.269 80.32% 0.811 0.9237
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 28.0 1.124 100.0% 0.126 -0.6562
4 Thematic 1081 37.07% 42.86 2.576 76.41% 1.578 0.5542
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4500 39.91% 35.66 -0.007 76.24% 0.898 0.9327
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 4.199 100.0% 0.312 0.1834
5 Other 155 38.06% 38.77 2.015 90.97% 2.09 1.8348
5 Thematic 36 41.67% 53.03 7.313 94.44% 2.788 -0.1548

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2406 32.95 -2.085 54.53% -1.378 0.6949
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2035 35.33 -0.816 60.44% -1.11 0.8095
All Things Weaken 2580 31.58 -2.589 53.37% -1.477 0.6817
Back Against the Wall 2108 34.3 -1.333 56.26% -1.294 0.7997
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2244 30.03 -3.559 52.32% -1.472 0.7521
Downward Spiral 2590 32.42 -2.121 59.96% -1.145 0.8763
Erosion of Will 2230 32.71 -2.253 52.87% -1.427 0.7822
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1211 37.49 0.374 75.89% -0.378 0.315
Memory Fades to Dust 2517 31.66 -2.471 56.58% -1.319 0.8999
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2522 32.93 -1.99 58.45% -1.22 0.8008
Promising Farmlands 2181 31.47 -2.853 53.05% -1.426 0.7888
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 855 38.32 0.955 82.22% -0.029 0.3821
Thriving Communities 2572 30.84 -2.977 54.35% -1.404 0.6889
Unnatural Proliferation 2777 34.43 -1.22 60.03% -1.167 0.9224
Untended Land Crumbles 2560 29.95 -3.399 50.94% -1.584 0.5218

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 9631 41.1% 35.18 -0.323 75.28% 0.354 -0.758
B 10560 42.12% 34.45 -0.602 73.58% 0.299 -0.9089
C 14018 39.66% 37.87 0.813 74.9% 0.441 -0.9982
D 9012 43.71% 33.48 -0.967 72.97% 0.275 -0.927
E 9000 41.13% 35.77 0.003 74.89% 0.411 -0.901
F 9346 40.13% 36.92 0.422 75.69% 0.413 -0.8525
G 7602 41.41% 36.05 0.122 74.05% 0.389 -0.8678
H 7591 44.11% 35.73 0.085 73.55% 0.39 -0.8754
East 750 46.04% 39.46 1.273 67.87% -0.513 -1.4939
Northeast 838 45.94% 37.67 1.07 71.96% -0.232 -1.1636
Northwest 790 39.8% 36.87 0.634 69.87% -0.379 -1.3783
Southeast 615 39.58% 36.41 0.073 72.2% -0.4 -1.4252
Southwest 477 40.46% 32.41 -1.382 72.12% -0.511 -1.1312
West 656 44.34% 36.06 -0.088 64.94% -0.866 -1.5904

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 572 0.0% 21.22 -6.677 85.84% -1.241 0.8136
Not Using Events or Tokens 40 51.52% 24.3 -3.527 87.5% 0.331 0.5487
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2952 10.25% 50.25 4.705 91.63% 0.88 0.1863
Start of Game Growth 4311 13.44% 48.06 4.071 89.56% 0.48 0.0167
Unlimited Undo 8226 30.72% 41.04 1.753 83.13% 0.334 -0.0869
Using Tokens but Not Events 7782 29.85% 30.6 -2.657 82.09% -0.168 -0.22

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 4241 37.08% 36.41 0.564 75.69% 0.056 0.1887
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 929 53.85% 31.1 -1.28 70.61% -0.248 -0.0199
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1548 45.06% 32.71 -0.777 73.26% -0.131 -0.217
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2074 37.22% 35.25 0.32 78.69% 0.111 -0.262
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1725 38.99% 34.75 -0.01 76.06% -0.026 -0.2865
Fractured Days Split the Sky 741 38.73% 38.32 1.223 75.3% -0.065 0.3032
Heart of the Wildfire 3382 59.84% 32.06 -1.435 65.05% -0.331 0.0188
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4860 39.1% 37.83 1.146 77.41% 0.273 -0.0308
Lightning's Swift Strike 2266 48.43% 33.38 -0.52 71.45% -0.208 0.0518
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2100 42.6% 39.41 1.286 77.67% 0.348 0.0746
Many Minds Move as One 1635 39.19% 35.82 0.547 81.04% 0.308 -0.2068
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2427 41.94% 36.87 0.452 75.73% 0.02 -0.1757
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1687 45.69% 34.24 -0.084 75.22% 0.067 0.1132
River Surges in Sunlight 2640 43.91% 35.58 0.247 73.26% -0.098 0.054
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2254 43.28% 36.86 0.155 73.69% -0.183 -0.0384
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1143 51.94% 31.51 -1.147 71.22% -0.221 0.2203
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1950 36.58% 39.68 1.567 80.0% 0.333 0.2616
Shroud of Silent Mist 339 48.95% 30.72 -1.84 75.52% -0.173 -0.193
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1675 38.39% 35.14 0.276 80.06% 0.306 0.5089
Thunderspeaker 1596 42.26% 34.44 -0.202 74.12% -0.148 -0.0963
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 5209 64.37% 29.42 -2.432 65.52% -0.325 -0.3171
Vital Strength of the Earth 1487 43.07% 29.88 -2.188 69.8% -0.515 0.355
Volcano Looming High 1394 48.13% 34.32 -0.811 71.81% -0.079 -0.1026

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Jagged Shards Push From the Earth 85.67%
Plows Shatter On Rocky Ground 70.42%
Scarred and Stony Land 90.95%
Stubborn Solidity 92.45%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10796 22.34 8.29%
II 31067 30.81 73.34%
III 27733 34.31 90.38%
IV 11290 37.5 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 893
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24669
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22368
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11147
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1251
Lose: Adversary condition 9734
Win: Sacrifice victory 409
Lose: Scenario condition 856
Win: Scenario condition 513
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8847
Lose: Spirit destroyed 199

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.449 Win Model: -0.227

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.124 Win Model: -0.856
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 50830 37.76% 37.03 75.33%
2 16827 52.25% 32.37 69.39%
3 7212 45.46% 34.66 75.19%
4 6017 39.27% 36.98 76.58%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)