Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 778 35.44% 34.32 -1.655 71.34% -0.621 -0.0398
Dahan Insurrection 4 494 35.43% 49.23 6.708 60.73% -0.857 -0.4535
Despicable Theft 2 19 31.58% 35.95 1.127 68.42% -0.724 -0.3739
Elemental Invocation 1 187 50.27% 33.24 -1.106 70.05% -0.385 -0.0124
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3496 19.59% 46.53 4.322 73.86% -0.264 0.1001
Powers Long Forgotten 1 231 61.3% 30.94 -1.24 62.77% -0.633 -0.1919
Rituals of Terror 3 236 37.18% 43.11 3.609 69.07% -0.848 -0.2139
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 340 71.39% 36.99 1.896 67.65% -0.641 -0.0002
Second Wave 0 2221 40.84% 28.47 -2.344 78.07% -0.662 -0.2379
The Great River 3 100 50.0% 30.39 -0.979 64.0% -1.574 -0.1525
Ward the Shores 2 273 40.68% 32.3 -0.794 61.9% -1.491 -0.4499

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 44410 37.96% 36.79 0.583 75.69% -1.669 -1.3414
1 Thematic 2012 39.76% 36.19 0.237 69.33% -1.567 -1.0936
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10316 52.6% 32.82 -0.708 70.03% -1.056 -0.8589
2 Coastline 1410 48.93% 33.07 -0.672 72.34% -0.986 -0.8351
2 Fragment 289 61.67% 34.92 0.158 69.2% -0.826 -0.4221
2 Heart 210 49.52% 32.82 -0.919 70.48% -1.388 -1.0762
2 Opposite Shores 2310 50.2% 29.4 -2.353 66.19% -1.361 -1.1379
2 Thematic 813 54.8% 31.89 -0.848 64.21% -0.78 -0.7513
2 Top to Top 318 48.11% 32.56 -1.012 68.55% -1.288 -1.1483
3 Coastline 64 41.27% 36.17 1.105 73.44% 0.118 0.0706
3 Other 388 50.0% 33.93 -0.314 77.32% -0.233 0.2051
3 Round (Default) 5912 45.6% 34.57 -0.021 74.8% 0.037 0.0949
3 Sunrise 24 54.17% 40.42 2.857 83.33% 0.817 0.6196
3 Thematic 247 55.69% 33.38 -0.484 67.61% 0.275 -0.0864
4 Coastline 21 38.1% 41.67 3.795 90.48% 1.562 1.7329
4 Leaf 18 47.06% 30.56 -2.793 50.0% -0.195 -0.1312
4 Other 349 40.92% 35.19 0.494 79.94% 0.802 0.9329
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 28.0 1.178 100.0% 0.123 -0.6571
4 Thematic 957 37.49% 41.87 2.376 75.65% 1.582 0.5221
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4197 39.84% 35.58 -0.001 75.77% 0.863 0.9016
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 4.137 100.0% 0.303 0.1732
5 Other 146 37.67% 38.55 1.895 90.41% 2.003 1.8038
5 Thematic 31 45.16% 51.58 7.286 93.55% 2.756 -0.2005

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2234 32.82 -2.061 54.61% -1.387 0.6838
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1893 35.16 -0.829 60.27% -1.126 0.7954
All Things Weaken 2383 31.51 -2.548 53.13% -1.492 0.6618
Back Against the Wall 1945 34.1 -1.348 56.3% -1.303 0.7935
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2064 29.55 -3.689 52.13% -1.51 0.7159
Downward Spiral 2415 32.58 -1.961 60.37% -1.12 0.8985
Erosion of Will 2056 32.4 -2.325 52.63% -1.459 0.7512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1113 37.14 0.32 75.74% -0.405 0.2883
Memory Fades to Dust 2318 31.45 -2.488 56.21% -1.341 0.8743
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2349 32.71 -2.007 58.28% -1.239 0.7784
Promising Farmlands 2031 31.24 -2.884 53.03% -1.443 0.7707
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 787 38.01 0.941 82.47% -0.028 0.4023
Thriving Communities 2368 30.38 -3.099 53.8% -1.448 0.6473
Unnatural Proliferation 2584 34.18 -1.252 59.79% -1.188 0.8985
Untended Land Crumbles 2387 29.81 -3.374 51.15% -1.588 0.5085

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8903 41.09% 35.11 -0.272 75.39% 0.382 -0.7195
B 9781 42.42% 34.29 -0.581 73.49% 0.318 -0.8784
C 12939 39.99% 37.72 0.839 74.84% 0.46 -0.9688
D 8300 43.86% 33.28 -0.964 73.06% 0.294 -0.8969
E 8286 41.39% 35.56 0.005 74.84% 0.42 -0.8794
F 8524 40.52% 36.51 0.357 75.65% 0.434 -0.8197
G 6931 41.87% 35.73 0.065 73.7% 0.384 -0.8582
H 7016 44.29% 35.55 0.107 73.92% 0.417 -0.8407
East 677 47.32% 38.73 1.184 67.36% -0.528 -1.4882
Northeast 754 46.55% 37.4 1.062 71.75% -0.259 -1.1606
Northwest 722 39.53% 36.86 0.671 69.39% -0.409 -1.384
Southeast 569 39.08% 36.73 0.242 72.93% -0.375 -1.3793
Southwest 444 39.64% 32.25 -1.458 71.17% -0.569 -1.1691
West 599 45.73% 35.2 -0.271 63.94% -0.896 -1.5956

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 514 0.0% 21.09 -6.449 85.8% -1.167 0.8819
Not Using Events or Tokens 29 39.13% 21.72 -4.828 86.21% -0.035 0.1859
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2728 10.03% 50.55 4.922 91.9% 0.91 0.2049
Start of Game Growth 3963 13.59% 48.09 4.118 89.86% 0.498 0.0466
Unlimited Undo 7542 31.35% 40.84 1.747 82.63% 0.317 -0.1003
Using Tokens but Not Events 6961 30.95% 29.49 -3.002 81.5% -0.217 -0.2683

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3972 37.08% 36.39 0.618 75.58% 0.065 0.2008
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 864 53.9% 31.0 -1.258 70.83% -0.22 0.0116
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1459 45.11% 32.39 -0.831 73.13% -0.145 -0.2311
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1946 37.41% 35.12 0.323 78.26% 0.107 -0.2633
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1604 39.39% 34.71 0.051 75.56% -0.025 -0.2803
Fractured Days Split the Sky 652 39.11% 37.99 1.126 74.85% -0.089 0.2725
Heart of the Wildfire 3163 59.76% 31.94 -1.42 64.46% -0.337 0.0123
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4391 40.15% 37.67 1.179 76.59% 0.261 -0.0407
Lightning's Swift Strike 2089 49.27% 33.32 -0.496 70.85% -0.218 0.0439
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1763 43.01% 38.98 1.226 77.42% 0.351 0.0612
Many Minds Move as One 1529 39.53% 35.65 0.524 81.16% 0.328 -0.1991
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2273 41.99% 37.03 0.567 75.85% 0.044 -0.1521
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1597 45.88% 34.2 -0.046 75.02% 0.08 0.1241
River Surges in Sunlight 2475 43.77% 35.68 0.344 73.21% -0.084 0.0684
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2128 43.57% 36.78 0.176 73.12% -0.183 -0.0393
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1063 51.66% 31.36 -1.148 70.84% -0.225 0.217
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1794 37.13% 39.36 1.592 79.43% 0.33 0.2578
Shroud of Silent Mist 221 48.18% 31.6 -1.49 76.02% -0.099 -0.122
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1580 38.27% 35.03 0.26 79.81% 0.3 0.509
Thunderspeaker 1493 41.83% 34.16 -0.255 73.61% -0.165 -0.1115
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 4986 64.28% 29.21 -2.463 65.12% -0.331 -0.3176
Vital Strength of the Earth 1341 42.76% 29.18 -2.406 69.28% -0.561 0.3068
Volcano Looming High 1056 49.17% 34.11 -0.802 71.5% -0.12 -0.1489

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Jagged Shards Push From the Earth 85.6%
Plows Shatter On Rocky Ground 70.99%
Scarred and Stony Land 91.0%
Stubborn Solidity 92.45%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9891 22.33 8.33%
II 28472 30.75 73.1%
III 25695 34.25 90.32%
IV 10387 37.47 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 822
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22842
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20438
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10255
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1173
Lose: Adversary condition 8822
Win: Sacrifice victory 377
Lose: Scenario condition 803
Win: Scenario condition 469
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8257
Lose: Spirit destroyed 187

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.428 Win Model: -0.227

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.123 Win Model: -0.866
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 46704 38.01% 36.78 75.48%
2 15590 52.34% 32.27 69.26%
3 6604 46.14% 34.54 74.68%
4 5547 39.34% 36.7 76.06%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)