Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 618 34.52% 34.51 -1.534 73.62% -0.555 0.011
Dahan Insurrection 4 401 36.41% 49.29 6.716 59.6% -0.84 -0.4403
Elemental Invocation 1 16 43.75% 34.94 0.48 81.25% 0.293 0.9357
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3028 18.92% 45.98 4.084 73.41% -0.328 0.0547
Powers Long Forgotten 1 186 64.32% 29.56 -1.604 63.98% -0.58 -0.1289
Rituals of Terror 3 210 35.58% 44.39 3.998 70.0% -0.781 -0.1595
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 310 72.17% 37.01 1.84 65.48% -0.705 -0.0767
Second Wave 0 1787 41.36% 28.56 -2.256 78.01% -0.637 -0.213
The Great River 3 69 47.83% 28.72 -1.897 53.62% -2.028 -0.5468
Ward the Shores 2 231 40.99% 32.49 -0.671 64.07% -1.408 -0.3795

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 37867 37.96% 36.75 0.562 75.64% -1.583 -1.2258
1 Thematic 1691 39.23% 36.18 0.162 68.66% -1.616 -1.1203
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8709 52.31% 32.92 -0.647 70.17% -1.0 -0.8148
2 Coastline 1210 49.34% 33.39 -0.529 72.31% -0.924 -0.7995
2 Fragment 246 60.66% 34.89 0.086 67.48% -0.856 -0.4183
2 Heart 167 43.11% 35.09 0.163 76.65% -1.051 -0.7643
2 Opposite Shores 1961 51.26% 29.06 -2.413 65.32% -1.32 -1.0979
2 Thematic 731 54.79% 31.97 -0.726 64.84% -0.809 -0.7671
2 Top to Top 262 49.62% 32.55 -1.001 67.18% -1.234 -1.1162
3 Coastline 56 41.82% 37.05 1.465 71.43% 0.072 0.0104
3 Other 338 50.0% 34.05 -0.287 76.04% -0.26 0.1563
3 Round (Default) 4896 45.85% 34.4 -0.08 74.31% 0.013 0.034
3 Sunrise 23 52.17% 39.91 2.549 82.61% 0.714 0.4571
3 Thematic 202 55.22% 32.82 -0.685 68.81% 0.204 -0.1369
4 Coastline 13 38.46% 42.77 4.795 92.31% 1.651 1.865
4 Leaf 14 50.0% 30.21 -3.23 42.86% -0.214 -0.1704
4 Other 299 42.62% 35.65 0.61 78.26% 0.711 0.7844
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 28.0 1.015 100.0% 0.116 -0.6845
4 Thematic 774 38.08% 40.98 2.182 75.19% 1.453 0.3595
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3449 39.28% 35.64 0.05 76.46% 0.864 0.8169
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 4.122 100.0% 0.3 0.2496
5 Other 121 35.54% 39.2 2.3 91.74% 2.104 1.8564
5 Thematic 24 45.83% 51.21 7.63 91.67% 2.558 -0.1494

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1901 32.38 -2.243 53.39% -1.441 0.6237
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1609 34.6 -1.074 59.11% -1.193 0.7231
All Things Weaken 1983 31.56 -2.492 53.81% -1.481 0.6785
Back Against the Wall 1632 34.04 -1.358 56.13% -1.299 0.797
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1749 29.1 -3.885 51.29% -1.557 0.6656
Downward Spiral 2078 32.62 -1.938 60.73% -1.106 0.9068
Erosion of Will 1764 32.33 -2.332 52.61% -1.458 0.7518
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 962 37.01 0.241 74.95% -0.451 0.2649
Memory Fades to Dust 1982 31.31 -2.532 56.56% -1.34 0.874
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2004 32.25 -2.205 57.78% -1.288 0.7262
Promising Farmlands 1703 31.18 -2.9 52.85% -1.451 0.7655
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 679 38.41 1.116 82.92% 0.013 0.4426
Thriving Communities 1984 30.43 -3.03 54.03% -1.433 0.6813
Unnatural Proliferation 2167 33.99 -1.314 60.31% -1.192 0.8918
Untended Land Crumbles 1986 29.8 -3.342 51.36% -1.575 0.5168

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7532 40.7% 35.25 -0.217 75.68% 0.355 -0.7136
B 8206 42.34% 34.19 -0.604 73.74% 0.293 -0.8657
C 10856 40.27% 37.66 0.831 74.56% 0.404 -0.989
D 7008 43.67% 33.24 -0.968 73.05% 0.243 -0.9097
E 7067 41.42% 35.47 -0.056 74.2% 0.331 -0.9142
F 7230 40.45% 36.44 0.314 75.27% 0.368 -0.8498
G 5878 41.9% 35.85 0.134 74.07% 0.361 -0.85
H 6052 44.16% 35.64 0.168 73.99% 0.377 -0.8398
East 574 47.19% 38.41 1.137 67.25% -0.506 -1.4392
Northeast 630 46.83% 37.05 1.039 71.9% -0.185 -1.0517
Northwest 633 39.52% 37.0 0.689 68.56% -0.354 -1.2928
Southeast 490 39.06% 36.38 0.123 72.24% -0.323 -1.3084
Southwest 388 40.72% 31.62 -1.574 71.65% -0.46 -1.0798
West 512 44.71% 34.79 -0.32 63.67% -0.833 -1.4925

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 407 0.0% 21.45 -6.247 86.98% -1.035 0.9976
Not Using Events or Tokens 24 40.0% 22.21 -4.753 87.5% 0.006 0.2312
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2272 10.31% 51.27 5.129 92.08% 0.951 0.2419
Start of Game Growth 3319 14.26% 48.73 4.321 90.0% 0.542 0.0841
Unlimited Undo 6521 31.57% 41.1 1.762 82.03% 0.276 -0.1221
Using Tokens but Not Events 5719 31.09% 28.9 -3.213 81.64% -0.211 -0.2591

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3363 36.71% 36.4 0.642 75.83% 0.049 0.2009
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 746 54.45% 30.51 -1.488 69.03% -0.309 -0.0691
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1295 44.72% 32.61 -0.729 72.97% -0.163 -0.2477
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1685 37.49% 35.2 0.377 77.98% 0.075 -0.2926
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1414 40.27% 34.09 -0.165 74.33% -0.113 -0.3371
Fractured Days Split the Sky 496 40.73% 37.9 1.035 73.39% -0.158 0.1713
Heart of the Wildfire 2767 59.27% 32.11 -1.327 64.91% -0.317 0.0334
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3704 39.73% 37.7 1.196 76.51% 0.252 -0.0431
Lightning's Swift Strike 1781 50.11% 33.43 -0.438 70.35% -0.241 0.0318
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1011 40.48% 39.85 1.568 81.01% 0.532 0.1488
Many Minds Move as One 1280 40.31% 35.73 0.494 80.31% 0.282 -0.2331
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1954 42.2% 36.86 0.543 76.51% 0.077 -0.1193
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1405 45.43% 33.99 -0.065 75.09% 0.072 0.1274
River Surges in Sunlight 2139 43.62% 35.48 0.35 73.54% -0.084 0.0864
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1833 43.5% 36.79 0.17 73.0% -0.21 -0.0558
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 906 52.77% 31.05 -1.307 69.87% -0.299 0.1545
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1568 37.18% 39.5 1.634 78.57% 0.288 0.2256
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1388 38.78% 35.09 0.284 79.61% 0.305 0.5248
Thunderspeaker 1254 42.47% 33.91 -0.294 73.44% -0.162 -0.0981
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 4508 64.17% 29.01 -2.533 65.39% -0.347 -0.3
Vital Strength of the Earth 1131 42.23% 29.69 -2.18 70.03% -0.491 0.3754
Volcano Looming High 217 41.47% 35.5 -0.257 76.96% 0.079 -0.0765

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Jagged Shards Push From the Earth 85.81%
Plows Shatter On Rocky Ground 71.31%
Scarred and Stony Land 90.98%
Stubborn Solidity 92.49%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8416 22.32 8.29%
II 24184 30.66 73.29%
III 21730 34.18 90.14%
IV 8726 37.44 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 696
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19298
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17407
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8617
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1017
Lose: Adversary condition 7465
Win: Sacrifice victory 308
Lose: Scenario condition 709
Win: Scenario condition 387
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7012
Lose: Spirit destroyed 140

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.443 Win Model: -0.225

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.127 Win Model: -0.81
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 39797 37.98% 36.75 75.4%
2 13224 52.27% 32.32 69.26%
3 5484 46.4% 34.4 74.2%
4 4551 39.08% 36.59 76.4%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-05 01:48:39 (Pacific Time)