Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 33 27.27% 26.39 93.94% 0.249 0.7452 -0.405
Blitz 0 1158 40.07% 32.54 65.46% -0.895 -0.4517 -1.16
Dahan Insurrection 4 761 36.81% 48.9 60.32% -0.33 -0.2332 -0.495
Despicable Theft 2 114 50.88% 33.96 64.91% -0.118 0.3802 -0.117
Elemental Invocation 1 503 50.3% 32.57 59.44% -0.786 -0.24 -0.921
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5425 19.56% 47.66 73.07% -0.251 -0.0192 -0.123
Powers Long Forgotten 1 360 57.1% 33.33 63.89% 0.234 0.6419 -0.262
Rituals of Terror 3 512 35.56% 67.92 70.7% 2.749 2.513 0.323
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 475 69.83% 36.47 68.84% -0.278 -0.0519 -0.832
Second Wave 0 3832 38.49% 28.41 78.94% -0.362 0.3306 0.011
The Great River 3 185 45.41% 30.73 57.84% -0.264 1.3173 -1.785
Varied Terrains 2 61 50.82% 31.57 65.57% -0.211 0.5752 -0.495
Ward the Shores 2 396 41.04% 32.15 61.11% -0.669 0.2122 -0.96

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 72287 38.31% 37.48 73.67% 0.014 0.6771 -0.703
1 Thematic 2929 39.47% 35.01 69.89% -0.384 0.6732 -0.788
2 Archipelago 39 41.03% 35.41 79.49% 0.132 0.6027 -0.321
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 16129 51.56% 33.05 71.04% -0.339 0.1792 -0.774
2 Coastline 2360 47.27% 33.6 72.71% 0.038 0.2383 -0.661
2 Fragment 515 56.73% 37.4 72.04% 0.104 0.4022 0.395
2 Heart 307 52.12% 32.12 68.08% -0.525 -0.0648 -0.613
2 Opposite Shores 3629 48.01% 30.06 68.7% -0.319 0.2194 -1.481
2 Thematic 1164 53.18% 33.57 64.69% -0.855 -0.0726 -1.009
2 Top to Top 561 48.84% 34.12 70.05% 0.416 0.5435 -0.803
3 Archipelago 30 36.67% 32.43 83.33% 0.588 0.3699 -0.819
3 Coastline 98 40.21% 35.55 73.47% 0.094 -0.4135 -0.23
3 Other 578 43.77% 33.03 78.2% 0.542 -0.1219 -0.579
3 Round (Default) 9879 45.25% 35.08 75.06% -0.577 -0.2726 -0.561
3 Sunrise 33 54.55% 41.61 78.79% 0.0 0.46 0.908
3 Thematic 423 49.53% 44.62 69.5% -0.566 -0.3582 -0.114
4 Archipelago 40 39.47% 36.95 82.5% -0.101 -0.138 0.642
4 Coastline 41 36.59% 38.29 87.8% 0.096 0.0586 0.456
4 Leaf 31 53.33% 31.32 54.84% 0.15 0.0482 -0.459
4 Other 459 40.48% 34.54 81.26% 0.318 -0.3964 -0.048
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 24.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1467 33.33% 48.14 78.12% 0.101 0.2048 0.462
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6133 39.57% 35.46 76.5% -0.083 -0.0052 -0.482
5 Archipelago 13 69.23% 35.08 76.92% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Coastline 9 22.22% 60.78 100.0% 0.228 -0.3597 1.107
5 Other 338 36.8% 36.11 86.39% -0.243 -0.7598 0.277
5 Thematic 67 38.81% 51.13 88.06% -0.001 -0.2884 1.385
6 Archipelago 22 27.27% 43.32 95.45% 0.092 -0.0547 0.065
6 Coastline 11 18.18% 55.64 100.0% 0.455 -0.1792 0.936
6 Other 105 34.95% 33.53 78.1% -0.064 -0.0192 -0.653
6 Star 81 24.69% 35.85 79.01% 0.237 1.0071 -0.171
6 Thematic 335 22.46% 44.73 80.0% -0.702 -0.4611 0.537
6 Two Centers (Default) 284 35.34% 36.31 85.21% 0.137 0.3286 -0.338
7 Archipelago 10 40.0% 55.3 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 9 33.33% 36.78 100.0% 0.279 -0.2048 0.331

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3486 33.74 54.48% -1.113 0.8577 -0.669
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2989 36.03 58.92% -1.124 0.6537 -0.504
All Things Weaken 3811 32.5 53.29% -1.309 0.7395 -0.716
Back Against the Wall 3123 34.63 54.98% -1.583 0.3563 -0.54
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3294 30.69 51.31% -1.556 0.5718 -0.853
Downward Spiral 3831 32.89 58.42% -1.255 0.7063 -0.608
Erosion of Will 3376 33.03 52.13% -1.629 0.4526 -0.87
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1786 37.98 74.64% 0.041 0.5425 -0.112
Memory Fades to Dust 3785 32.26 55.72% -1.236 0.9051 -0.749
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3746 32.84 56.03% -1.904 0.0771 -0.681
Promising Farmlands 3291 31.73 52.26% -1.4 0.6219 -0.814
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1330 38.82 80.0% -0.43 0.0668 0.229
Thriving Communities 3808 31.46 53.39% -1.499 0.5603 -0.733
Unnatural Proliferation 4112 35.18 59.05% -1.222 0.7349 -0.43
Untended Land Crumbles 3834 30.33 49.97% -1.377 0.6564 -0.905

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 23280 43.42% 34.83 74.1% -0.013 0.7235 -0.004
B 25280 42.78% 34.6 73.44% 0.086 0.7832 -0.116
C 31449 40.78% 37.37 74.3% 0.305 0.7745 0.001
D 22291 44.78% 33.82 73.19% -0.158 0.5518 -0.14
E 22080 42.64% 35.6 74.38% 0.351 0.895 0.07
F 21907 42.23% 36.13 74.67% 0.491 1.1524 0.08
G 18795 42.85% 35.3 73.84% 0.042 0.6734 0.07
H 18588 43.56% 35.41 73.92% 0.019 0.6841 0.006
East 4446 40.13% 41.36 72.47% -0.462 0.1995 -0.898
Northeast 2572 38.78% 44.51 73.6% 0.857 1.5167 -0.199
Northwest 2295 36.71% 43.28 73.81% 0.0 0.6105 -0.731
Southeast 1780 35.72% 39.57 74.72% -0.714 -0.1824 -0.58
Southwest 1692 35.94% 38.27 73.35% -0.467 0.5015 -0.951
West 4209 39.46% 40.66 71.25% 0.324 1.1295 -0.969

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 848 0.0% 24.32 85.14% -0.274 1.9551 -0.386
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 41.67% 25.63 83.93% 0.0 0.2266 1.01
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3907 10.47% 48.48 90.53% 0.524 -0.4562 0.266
Start of Game Growth 6195 14.16% 47.26 87.39% 0.132 -0.3243 0.074
Unlimited Undo 11681 30.86% 40.7 83.32% 0.72 0.1681 0.431
Using Tokens but Not Events 12228 28.87% 31.54 80.9% -0.548 -0.3927 -0.41

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6255 100.0% 38.24 100.0% 0.267 0.192 0.271
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1366 100.0% 36.14 100.0% -0.432 -0.3531 -0.328
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2205 100.0% 32.81 100.0% -0.153 -0.3771 -0.38
Downpour Drenches the World 308 100.0% 36.6 100.0% 0.005 0.2694 -0.056
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2990 100.0% 35.56 100.0% 0.038 -0.4646 -0.038
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2437 100.0% 35.82 100.0% 0.089 -0.4974 0.171
Finder of Paths Unseen 364 100.0% 39.28 100.0% 0.652 1.0082 1.057
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1304 100.0% 38.39 100.0% 0.179 0.2607 -0.06
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 794 100.0% 33.61 100.0% -0.077 -0.1717 -0.152
Heart of the Wildfire 4545 100.0% 32.15 100.0% 0.102 0.5072 -0.269
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6991 100.0% 38.12 100.0% 0.817 0.2135 0.277
Lightning's Swift Strike 1885 147.15% 32.16 123.08% -0.272 0.0933 -0.268
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 164 44.51% 45.74 73.78% 0.091 -0.6579 -0.222
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 654 39.57% 40.0 78.75% 0.413 -0.1508 0.629
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 826 50.43% 32.78 69.37% -0.864 -1.358 0.152
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3848 100.0% 38.85 100.0% 0.113 -0.0382 0.122
Many Minds Move as One 2359 100.0% 38.32 100.0% 0.23 -0.3565 0.571
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3364 100.0% 36.7 100.0% -0.194 -0.3637 0.031
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2335 100.0% 34.19 100.0% 0.359 0.3025 -0.077
River Surges in Sunlight 2944 117.26% 36.99 109.31% -0.497 -0.571 0.111
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 747 44.43% 33.92 71.62% -0.016 0.4108 -0.473
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 208 51.44% 43.55 70.19% 0.538 0.197 0.395
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3103 100.0% 36.58 100.0% -0.093 -0.2868 -0.212
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 801 153.91% 28.64 126.72% 0.849 1.324 -0.219
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 49 44.9% 35.82 71.43% -0.534 -0.3542 0.349
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 66 56.06% 45.76 78.79% 0.074 0.1291 0.435
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 427 44.34% 34.94 74.0% -0.629 -0.6516 -0.411
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 288 50.52% 31.45 73.96% -0.35 -0.2341 -0.079
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2870 100.0% 40.61 100.0% 0.102 -0.0891 0.467
Shifting Memory of Ages 986 100.0% 32.31 100.0% -0.453 -0.2384 -0.074
Shroud of Silent Mist 937 100.0% 30.32 100.0% -0.301 -0.1673 -0.234
Starlight Seeks its Form 1147 100.0% 36.96 100.0% 0.419 0.304 0.546
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2270 100.0% 35.19 100.0% 0.35 0.4799 0.334
Thunderspeaker 2366 100.0% 34.8 100.0% -0.175 -0.1922 -0.181
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 6546 100.0% 29.67 100.0% 0.018 -0.1975 -0.517
Vital Strength of the Earth 1559 126.2% 28.29 115.59% -0.228 0.6702 -0.93
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 135 33.33% 41.84 75.56% -0.212 0.2105 0.15
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 613 47.79% 35.32 65.74% -0.169 0.9455 -0.736
Volcano Looming High 2846 100.0% 34.09 100.0% -0.142 -0.1627 -0.391

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Jagged Shards Push From the Earth 85.6%
Plows Shatter On Rocky Ground 68.71%
Scarred and Stony Land 90.84%
Stubborn Solidity 92.43%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16945 22.65 7.67%
II 46339 31.08 73.17%
III 40505 34.66 90.35%
IV 16658 37.91 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1297
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 36017
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 33327
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16401
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2019
Lose: Adversary condition 15339
Win: Sacrifice victory 667
Lose: Scenario condition 1262
Win: Scenario condition 700
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13080
Lose: Spirit destroyed 338

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.523 Win Model: -0.202

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.014 Win Model: -0.003
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 75719 38.36% 37.38 73.55%
2 24586 50.93% 32.96 70.56%
3 10986 45.06% 35.69 75.2%
4 8121 38.53% 36.88 77.02%
5 194 34.2% 33.79 84.54%
6 841 28.67% 39.82 82.16%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)