Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 720 34.68% 34.34 -1.664 72.5% -0.622 -0.0448
Dahan Insurrection 4 457 35.67% 49.1 6.583 59.3% -0.899 -0.4985
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 37.0 2.336 50.0% -0.435 -0.0066
Elemental Invocation 1 119 47.9% 32.72 -0.798 77.31% -0.069 0.3122
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3279 19.27% 46.15 4.162 73.53% -0.31 0.0562
Powers Long Forgotten 1 219 61.47% 30.81 -1.295 63.01% -0.631 -0.1893
Rituals of Terror 3 223 36.65% 43.58 3.694 69.06% -0.847 -0.2191
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 332 71.3% 37.02 1.874 66.87% -0.668 -0.0183
Second Wave 0 2042 40.74% 28.53 -2.308 78.6% -0.636 -0.2194
The Great River 3 87 47.13% 29.75 -1.344 60.92% -1.762 -0.2907
Ward the Shores 2 264 41.34% 32.11 -0.844 62.12% -1.465 -0.4285

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 41696 38.08% 36.74 0.562 75.67% -1.617 -1.258
1 Thematic 1852 39.83% 36.26 0.245 69.22% -1.56 -1.0563
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9701 52.6% 32.85 -0.68 70.14% -1.03 -0.8338
2 Coastline 1326 48.6% 33.08 -0.629 72.78% -0.938 -0.7955
2 Fragment 274 61.4% 34.6 0.002 68.25% -0.864 -0.4416
2 Heart 186 44.62% 33.67 -0.369 75.27% -1.167 -0.874
2 Opposite Shores 2152 50.63% 29.46 -2.269 66.22% -1.31 -1.0855
2 Thematic 785 55.23% 32.03 -0.735 64.59% -0.779 -0.7347
2 Top to Top 293 47.78% 33.04 -0.799 68.26% -1.25 -1.1157
3 Coastline 61 41.67% 36.26 1.086 72.13% 0.065 0.032
3 Other 371 50.4% 33.88 -0.322 77.09% -0.221 0.1943
3 Round (Default) 5477 45.42% 34.47 -0.058 74.6% 0.007 0.0456
3 Sunrise 23 52.17% 39.91 2.552 82.61% 0.703 0.4795
3 Thematic 225 56.25% 33.28 -0.516 69.33% 0.264 -0.0925
4 Coastline 17 35.29% 44.35 5.258 94.12% 1.791 1.9495
4 Leaf 18 47.06% 30.56 -2.801 50.0% -0.229 -0.2017
4 Other 323 41.61% 35.23 0.442 78.95% 0.712 0.8248
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 28.0 1.055 100.0% 0.115 -0.6735
4 Thematic 869 38.75% 40.87 2.115 75.03% 1.453 0.3668
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3908 39.4% 35.64 0.034 75.97% 0.834 0.817
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 4.128 100.0% 0.292 0.2102
5 Other 138 36.96% 39.16 2.178 90.58% 1.988 1.7694
5 Thematic 28 46.43% 51.96 7.589 92.86% 2.648 -0.1799

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2096 32.6 -2.164 53.96% -1.423 0.6467
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1772 34.85 -0.983 59.59% -1.171 0.747
All Things Weaken 2249 31.53 -2.521 53.53% -1.486 0.6685
Back Against the Wall 1801 34.13 -1.32 56.64% -1.299 0.7975
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1935 29.48 -3.712 52.04% -1.526 0.6976
Downward Spiral 2287 32.61 -1.935 60.6% -1.117 0.8996
Erosion of Will 1935 32.43 -2.297 52.97% -1.453 0.7568
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1045 37.11 0.293 75.02% -0.438 0.2664
Memory Fades to Dust 2189 31.38 -2.514 56.24% -1.348 0.8667
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2194 32.46 -2.114 57.93% -1.264 0.7559
Promising Farmlands 1898 31.28 -2.841 53.16% -1.441 0.7716
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 742 38.2 1.028 82.61% -0.017 0.4189
Thriving Communities 2217 30.32 -3.096 53.95% -1.443 0.6545
Unnatural Proliferation 2416 34.23 -1.204 60.39% -1.172 0.9059
Untended Land Crumbles 2233 29.66 -3.415 51.19% -1.598 0.5009

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8359 41.16% 35.14 -0.254 75.37% 0.361 -0.7285
B 9121 42.58% 34.2 -0.605 73.5% 0.3 -0.8855
C 12070 40.23% 37.71 0.853 74.76% 0.437 -0.9777
D 7760 43.79% 33.27 -0.95 73.21% 0.284 -0.8934
E 7791 41.28% 35.55 -0.003 74.6% 0.38 -0.8969
F 8005 40.45% 36.37 0.304 75.53% 0.404 -0.8391
G 6494 41.75% 35.82 0.108 73.96% 0.373 -0.8571
H 6617 44.26% 35.54 0.121 74.07% 0.4 -0.8405
East 630 46.96% 38.98 1.316 67.94% -0.493 -1.4436
Northeast 688 48.11% 37.01 1.015 71.66% -0.225 -1.1147
Northwest 685 39.76% 36.81 0.65 69.2% -0.399 -1.3638
Southeast 533 39.66% 36.63 0.274 73.17% -0.329 -1.3306
Southwest 416 40.87% 31.41 -1.693 70.67% -0.554 -1.1624
West 557 45.59% 34.7 -0.355 63.91% -0.869 -1.5552

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 474 0.0% 20.92 -6.32 86.5% -1.075 0.9687
Not Using Events or Tokens 25 40.0% 21.72 -4.832 88.0% 0.07 0.2886
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2544 10.18% 50.73 4.965 91.98% 0.894 0.1899
Start of Game Growth 3667 13.89% 48.37 4.202 90.16% 0.546 0.092
Unlimited Undo 7135 31.45% 40.88 1.752 82.42% 0.301 -0.1109
Using Tokens but Not Events 6389 31.69% 28.82 -3.243 81.2% -0.246 -0.2933

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3720 37.01% 36.28 0.608 75.67% 0.073 0.2195
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 819 54.05% 30.77 -1.381 70.09% -0.257 -0.0202
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1386 44.67% 32.46 -0.792 73.38% -0.121 -0.2062
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1823 36.97% 35.24 0.386 78.33% 0.111 -0.2541
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1518 39.48% 34.46 -0.048 75.23% -0.047 -0.2922
Fractured Days Split the Sky 581 40.1% 37.46 0.98 74.53% -0.098 0.2479
Heart of the Wildfire 2987 59.43% 31.96 -1.399 64.85% -0.31 0.0404
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4088 40.14% 37.63 1.189 76.52% 0.272 -0.0279
Lightning's Swift Strike 1957 49.35% 33.34 -0.484 70.77% -0.226 0.0425
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1479 41.53% 39.27 1.334 78.57% 0.393 0.0735
Many Minds Move as One 1423 39.49% 35.83 0.578 81.1% 0.339 -0.1818
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2138 41.7% 36.91 0.511 75.87% 0.037 -0.1572
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1518 45.94% 34.2 -0.007 75.1% 0.098 0.1469
River Surges in Sunlight 2328 43.66% 35.56 0.367 73.5% -0.056 0.1061
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2024 43.47% 36.68 0.157 73.17% -0.177 -0.0274
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1007 51.8% 31.38 -1.159 70.41% -0.232 0.218
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1695 37.27% 39.62 1.691 79.06% 0.331 0.2641
Shroud of Silent Mist 52 44.23% 31.52 -1.424 75.0% -0.232 -0.2757
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1513 38.16% 34.99 0.242 79.64% 0.306 0.5226
Thunderspeaker 1396 42.37% 34.04 -0.252 73.78% -0.123 -0.0657
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 4790 64.24% 29.11 -2.499 65.28% -0.325 -0.3049
Vital Strength of the Earth 1250 42.41% 29.34 -2.329 69.52% -0.522 0.3487
Volcano Looming High 833 50.43% 33.19 -1.018 70.59% -0.145 -0.2071

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Jagged Shards Push From the Earth 85.62%
Plows Shatter On Rocky Ground 71.2%
Scarred and Stony Land 91.07%
Stubborn Solidity 92.45%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9245 22.34 8.27%
II 26693 30.75 73.14%
III 24111 34.26 90.28%
IV 9677 37.47 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 763
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21432
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19171
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9555
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1096
Lose: Adversary condition 8233
Win: Sacrifice victory 350
Lose: Scenario condition 763
Win: Scenario condition 435
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7754
Lose: Spirit destroyed 174

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.431 Win Model: -0.226

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.127 Win Model: -0.84
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 43809 38.12% 36.74 75.46%
2 14654 52.36% 32.31 69.43%
3 6118 46.04% 34.46 74.53%
4 5145 39.22% 36.57 76.07%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)