Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 37.5% 24.13 56.25% 0.271 -0.1759 0.0
Blitz 0 216 46.92% 26.52 69.91% 0.927 1.3833 -0.322
Dahan Insurrection 4 284 30.99% 47.75 69.72% -0.144 -0.1244 0.111
Despicable Theft 2 209 54.07% 31.34 76.08% 0.567 1.0797 -0.27
Elemental Invocation 1 175 57.71% 26.91 69.71% -0.797 -0.0977 -1.283
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1059 21.44% 41.59 73.75% -0.254 -0.2127 0.736
Powers Long Forgotten 1 83 74.7% 28.86 62.65% -1.076 -0.5145 0.073
Rituals of Terror 3 65 82.81% 32.28 47.69% 0.357 0.0689 -0.208
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 92.0% 31.24 36.0% -0.541 -0.1109 -0.746
Second Wave 0 1006 49.55% 26.35 73.76% -0.17 0.2921 0.002
The Great River 3 51 66.67% 26.2 43.14% 0.047 1.8136 -0.749
Varied Terrains 2 36 69.44% 23.83 47.22% -1.082 -0.2535 -0.495
Ward the Shores 2 109 64.22% 31.67 58.72% 0.013 0.7566 -0.742

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20018 64.08% 27.02 68.94% 0.019 0.569 0.061
1 Thematic 546 62.36% 28.43 57.51% -0.92 0.0779 -0.894
2 Archipelago 36 58.33% 28.47 69.44% 0.0 0.6175 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5702 59.4% 29.53 69.69% 0.12 0.5297 -0.151
2 Coastline 653 51.56% 31.24 76.11% 0.226 0.3616 0.606
2 Fragment 165 61.59% 24.41 64.85% -0.48 -0.4848 -0.825
2 Heart 98 55.1% 29.77 73.47% -0.36 0.1151 0.83
2 Opposite Shores 1260 47.01% 28.6 78.73% 0.241 0.5947 -0.353
2 Thematic 312 58.9% 31.43 73.4% 0.41 1.3398 -0.095
2 Top to Top 169 51.79% 31.43 76.33% 0.415 0.5419 0.45
3 Archipelago 15 86.67% 33.8 60.0% 0.0 0.1788 0.454
3 Coastline 26 60.0% 27.31 73.08% 0.176 -0.2404 0.649
3 Other 120 48.31% 29.29 85.83% 0.789 0.0695 1.064
3 Round (Default) 2867 52.47% 31.63 74.68% 0.19 0.3838 0.106
3 Sunrise 17 47.06% 30.76 76.47% -0.858 -0.7096 0.0
3 Thematic 102 58.82% 33.25 66.67% 0.1 0.1154 -0.749
4 Archipelago 34 67.65% 29.32 61.76% 0.103 -0.3164 0.0
4 Coastline 15 40.0% 26.13 66.67% 0.0 -0.0727 -0.48
4 Leaf 10 50.0% 31.8 70.0% 0.0 -0.0965 0.0
4 Other 69 44.93% 30.9 82.61% 0.523 -0.0929 -0.042
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.142 0.0967 0.0
4 Thematic 310 27.1% 45.92 78.06% -0.014 0.2687 -0.143
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1652 37.62% 32.21 83.17% 0.031 0.2188 -0.063
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 30.22 55.56% -0.227 -0.6109 -0.382
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.0 0.1073 0.0
5 Other 140 38.76% 35.14 85.0% 1.015 0.3838 0.916
5 Thematic 20 45.0% 37.9 80.0% 0.315 -0.6597 -0.24
6 Archipelago 11 18.18% 32.73 90.91% -0.422 -0.4926 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.9494 0.0
6 Other 63 29.51% 29.84 84.13% -0.053 -0.2945 -0.343
6 Star 27 22.22% 28.74 77.78% 0.14 0.6859 -0.173
6 Thematic 107 41.51% 34.58 65.42% -1.553 -1.507 -0.881
6 Two Centers (Default) 192 30.85% 31.85 87.5% -0.016 0.4469 0.431
7 Other 6 60.0% 43.0 83.33% 0.0 -0.3606 0.222

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1450 28.08 54.14% -1.728 0.0023 0.029
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1306 30.07 57.66% -1.431 0.1449 0.103
All Things Weaken 1647 27.87 57.32% -1.495 0.3825 0.184
Back Against the Wall 1258 28.85 53.5% -1.3 0.3362 -0.092
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 13.0 0.0% -0.665 0.3434 0.0
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1334 24.99 49.33% -1.261 0.5816 -0.339
Downward Spiral 1669 26.67 61.17% -1.918 -0.2197 -0.025
Erosion of Will 1427 27.07 52.49% -1.645 0.2555 -0.189
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 558 30.8 81.36% -0.501 -0.001 0.136
Memory Fades to Dust 1665 25.99 59.4% -1.5 0.3763 -0.097
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1562 26.48 55.38% -1.718 -0.0137 -0.326
Promising Farmlands 1354 26.75 53.1% -1.494 0.3813 -0.343
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 381 30.74 83.73% 0.681 0.8911 0.479
Thriving Communities 1573 26.2 54.1% -1.138 0.7327 -0.042
Unnatural Proliferation 1666 27.91 54.8% -2.048 -0.294 -0.128
Untended Land Crumbles 1494 26.04 53.21% -1.537 0.2772 -0.429

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7566 55.78% 28.58 73.2% 0.065 0.8427 0.068
B 7268 54.47% 29.19 73.57% 0.38 1.0829 0.155
C 8227 55.41% 29.38 73.3% 0.23 0.7572 0.067
D 6811 55.07% 29.02 73.43% 0.084 0.8187 -0.014
E 7511 56.03% 30.16 72.28% 0.028 0.6118 0.087
F 6344 56.51% 29.7 72.97% 0.28 0.9869 0.216
G 5709 54.74% 29.48 73.73% 0.528 1.1702 0.174
H 5678 54.67% 29.45 73.81% 0.054 0.699 0.064
East 1076 47.99% 36.17 70.35% -0.105 0.4871 0.606
Northeast 611 43.26% 37.72 73.0% -0.211 0.4662 -0.707
Northwest 511 43.79% 38.14 71.04% 0.122 0.5593 -1.014
Southeast 439 43.15% 35.4 70.16% -0.797 -0.1337 -1.072
Southwest 395 46.06% 33.57 65.82% 0.053 1.224 -0.754
West 933 47.2% 36.01 69.13% -0.723 0.0946 -0.062

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 388 0.0% 25.94 79.64% -2.767 -0.6911 0.64
Not Using Events or Tokens 488 60.05% 22.13 90.37% 0.356 0.5271 0.098
Skip Initial Invader Actions 866 19.12% 39.32 90.65% 0.147 -0.9118 0.923
Start of Game Growth 1200 22.58% 39.03 90.83% 1.666 1.2442 0.59
Unlimited Undo 3307 47.73% 31.74 82.13% 0.393 -0.0227 0.902
Using Tokens but Not Events 3248 39.76% 23.91 82.97% 0.125 0.2401 -0.042

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2002 100.0% 33.32 100.0% 0.012 -0.1676 0.709
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 905 100.0% 29.97 100.0% 0.263 0.277 -0.012
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 710 100.0% 31.07 100.0% 0.773 0.5272 0.086
Downpour Drenches the World 240 100.0% 31.58 100.0% -0.406 -0.0181 0.186
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 5 100.0% 36.6 100.0% 0.494 0.7297 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1073 100.0% 31.75 100.0% 0.185 -0.2881 0.355
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 728 100.0% 32.95 100.0% 0.953 0.5067 0.054
Finder of Paths Unseen 109 100.0% 34.68 100.0% -0.41 -0.0468 0.533
Fractured Days Split the Sky 472 100.0% 37.25 100.0% -0.596 -0.4924 0.037
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 555 100.0% 30.31 100.0% 0.329 0.2647 -0.127
Heart of the Wildfire 611 100.0% 29.48 100.0% -0.339 -0.0803 0.007
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1221 100.0% 34.0 100.0% -0.01 -0.593 0.485
Lightning's Swift Strike 387 176.07% 29.31 134.88% -0.319 -0.0514 -0.215
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 42 57.14% 33.14 85.71% 0.699 -0.1153 0.005
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 257 51.2% 32.93 81.71% 0.187 -0.355 0.068
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 309 47.06% 30.87 73.46% 0.597 0.119 0.066
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1252 100.0% 31.4 100.0% -0.222 -0.3436 0.026
Many Minds Move as One 708 100.0% 32.49 100.0% 0.03 -0.593 0.803
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1189 100.0% 33.88 100.0% -0.217 -0.344 0.473
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 740 100.0% 30.37 100.0% 0.67 0.5868 -0.417
River Surges in Sunlight 694 138.89% 33.74 123.63% -0.705 -0.8969 -0.153
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 426 46.67% 31.51 69.25% 0.334 0.6216 -1.292
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 96 47.87% 36.91 65.63% -0.976 -1.3385 -0.39
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 969 100.0% 33.95 100.0% 0.599 0.4252 0.022
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 180 254.05% 25.46 178.89% 0.63 1.0225 -0.574
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 27 53.85% 26.15 66.67% -0.41 -0.3131 -0.624
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 40 62.5% 34.05 85.0% 0.245 0.32 0.736
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 292 50.69% 29.1 77.4% -0.641 -0.6765 -0.301
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 234 50.43% 26.3 73.93% -0.362 -0.3585 0.092
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 659 100.0% 33.1 100.0% 0.388 0.1885 0.088
Shifting Memory of Ages 1063 100.0% 28.95 100.0% 0.704 0.9335 -0.924
Starlight Seeks its Form 477 100.0% 31.47 100.0% 0.288 0.132 -0.118
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 970 100.0% 30.08 100.0% 0.127 -0.1364 -0.182
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 706 100.0% 33.84 100.0% -0.422 -0.3593 0.313
Thunderspeaker 715 100.7% 33.41 100.28% 0.325 0.2481 0.778
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 5 0.0% 20.4 60.0% -0.921 -0.716 -0.145
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 690 100.0% 28.53 100.0% -0.216 -0.4778 0.238
Vital Strength of the Earth 359 137.22% 25.89 119.78% -1.023 -0.2701 0.057
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 44 38.64% 29.82 72.73% -0.004 0.5742 0.239
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 200 46.23% 28.05 70.5% -0.156 0.9941 -0.805
Volcano Looming High 1103 100.0% 28.71 100.0% -0.454 -0.4575 -0.037

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.09%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.09%
The Fog Closes In 97.47%
Unnerving Pall 97.55%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3162 22.63 4.65%
II 8271 31.12 35.45%
III 12303 34.7 86.03%
IV 11043 37.97 99.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 147
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10428
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2806
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10987
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 29
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 3053
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Scenario condition 245
Win: Scenario condition 261
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6568
Lose: Spirit destroyed 140

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.021 Win Model: -0.26

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.217 Win Model: 0.075
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 20617 64.06% 27.07 68.58%
2 8423 56.78% 29.57 71.87%
3 3090 52.46% 31.5 74.98%
4 2128 36.45% 34.25 82.05%
5 128 43.7% 32.64 79.69%
6 393 31.43% 31.99 81.68%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)