Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 53 43.14% 27.74 -1.175 83.02% -0.169 0.4117
Dahan Insurrection 4 60 35.0% 52.35 9.665 71.67% -0.302 0.1015
Despicable Theft 2 131 48.85% 30.65 1.051 76.34% -0.673 -0.3231
Elemental Invocation 1 61 55.74% 27.59 -1.656 67.21% -0.826 -0.4539
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 276 22.55% 42.87 4.698 76.81% -0.219 0.1451
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 83.33% 18.17 -6.429 16.67% -1.285 -0.844
Rituals of Terror 3 14 100.0% 22.07 -2.719 21.43% -1.364 -0.7295
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 26.0 -5.717 0.0% -0.501 0.1398
Second Wave 0 119 58.47% 23.71 -3.027 63.03% -1.293 -0.8692
The Great River 3 10 60.0% 27.4 -0.214 50.0% -1.313 0.1079
Ward the Shores 2 18 61.11% 28.11 -0.75 50.0% -1.216 -0.1746

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6481 64.56% 28.11 -0.772 71.83% -0.229 0.0982
1 Thematic 143 61.27% 28.01 -0.799 62.94% -0.796 -0.3223
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1279 52.17% 31.63 0.649 77.4% 0.122 0.3188
2 Coastline 159 44.52% 32.29 0.779 80.5% 0.155 0.3061
2 Fragment 33 60.61% 23.91 -2.485 72.73% -0.352 0.0527
2 Heart 9 44.44% 33.22 0.48 77.78% -0.231 0.081
2 Opposite Shores 379 41.69% 29.56 -0.31 81.79% -0.05 0.1735
2 Thematic 64 54.69% 32.14 1.071 84.38% 0.324 0.3522
2 Top to Top 44 43.18% 32.32 0.928 75.0% -0.058 0.0822
3 Coastline 4 25.0% 29.0 -1.023 75.0% -0.084 -0.1309
3 Other 30 46.67% 35.4 2.065 93.33% 0.848 1.2867
3 Round (Default) 665 50.15% 34.38 1.106 76.09% 0.18 0.2383
3 Sunrise 1 0.0% 26.0 -2.486 100.0% 0.023 -0.1737
3 Thematic 21 42.86% 38.86 1.61 76.19% -0.306 -0.6667
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 30.0 -4.042 75.0% -0.612 -0.441
4 Leaf 1 0.0% 45.0 6.44 100.0% 0.06 0.1236
4 Other 18 55.56% 28.5 -2.239 72.22% -0.004 0.1276
4 Thematic 83 30.12% 45.75 3.547 72.29% -0.173 -1.2325
4 Trapezoid (Default) 356 36.52% 33.32 -0.104 82.3% 0.133 0.1708
5 Other 8 42.86% 50.38 7.166 100.0% 0.926 0.7274
5 Thematic 1 0.0% 33.0 2.808 100.0% 0.146 -2.8103

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 424 29.69 -0.545 57.08% -1.577 0.4938
Aid From Lesser Spirits 344 30.94 0.032 62.5% -1.453 0.4692
All Things Weaken 464 30.39 0.013 64.22% -1.381 0.7728
Back Against the Wall 353 28.54 -1.116 55.52% -1.766 0.3307
Disintegrating Ecosystem 394 25.69 -2.735 49.49% -1.96 0.2656
Downward Spiral 512 26.6 -1.473 67.58% -1.429 0.5902
Erosion of Will 364 29.48 -0.669 57.14% -1.613 0.5976
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 172 30.27 0.036 82.56% -0.456 0.2372
Memory Fades to Dust 513 26.62 -1.509 66.67% -1.522 0.6932
Power Corrodes the Spirit 405 28.44 -1.07 56.05% -1.651 0.366
Promising Farmlands 335 28.28 -1.431 57.01% -1.607 0.6066
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 112 31.3 0.224 80.36% -0.525 -0.0945
Thriving Communities 470 27.94 -1.164 60.0% -1.513 0.5823
Unnatural Proliferation 466 29.05 -0.742 57.08% -1.656 0.4301
Untended Land Crumbles 402 28.91 -0.913 59.7% -1.512 0.584

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1315 59.68% 28.26 -0.44 76.2% 0.188 -0.9134
B 1207 56.23% 27.82 -0.736 73.9% -0.068 -1.2644
C 1450 58.17% 29.6 0.232 76.48% 0.2 -1.229
D 1043 58.71% 28.81 -0.327 74.3% 0.08 -1.1114
E 1569 61.52% 32.27 1.045 69.02% 0.141 -1.1581
F 1002 61.92% 29.1 -0.28 70.46% -0.071 -1.325
G 989 60.45% 29.81 0.193 77.15% 0.292 -0.95
H 896 57.47% 28.48 -0.348 75.11% 0.068 -1.189
East 92 42.86% 39.14 3.136 78.26% 0.195 -0.7645
Northeast 51 49.02% 34.75 1.378 74.51% 0.024 -0.8773
Northwest 47 55.32% 33.96 0.879 68.09% -0.182 -1.1568
Southeast 42 50.0% 33.62 -0.398 64.29% -0.369 -1.3732
Southwest 35 60.0% 24.0 -3.733 51.43% -0.711 -1.311
West 45 53.33% 33.04 0.758 75.56% 0.239 -0.461

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 75 0.0% 21.43 -3.595 82.67% -1.457 0.5917
Not Using Events or Tokens 264 63.08% 23.14 -1.646 96.97% 1.53 1.751
Skip Initial Invader Actions 212 18.37% 39.33 2.566 87.74% -0.216 -0.9212
Start of Game Growth 310 21.33% 39.86 3.47 88.39% 0.859 0.4075
Unlimited Undo 932 50.17% 32.56 1.361 85.09% 0.624 0.2074
Using Tokens but Not Events 853 41.94% 24.59 -2.228 84.64% -0.119 -0.17

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 497 31.57% 34.12 1.373 86.32% 0.36 0.496
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 209 53.11% 31.33 -0.043 72.25% -0.427 -0.1954
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 151 45.95% 34.13 1.336 84.11% 0.529 0.4426
Eyes Watch From the Trees 261 35.0% 33.75 1.011 88.12% 0.49 0.1199
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 142 51.08% 34.35 1.177 83.1% 0.338 0.0824
Fractured Days Split the Sky 107 43.93% 36.02 1.802 81.31% 0.053 0.4142
Heart of the Wildfire 122 63.11% 32.57 -0.579 62.3% -0.474 -0.1248
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 362 40.06% 35.15 1.25 82.6% 0.248 -0.0538
Lightning's Swift Strike 208 52.24% 32.39 0.125 75.0% -0.169 0.0924
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 302 51.67% 32.71 -0.153 72.52% -0.327 -0.617
Many Minds Move as One 155 44.08% 34.6 1.461 80.65% 0.242 -0.2853
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 275 45.69% 37.16 2.048 78.91% 0.117 -0.0792
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 169 42.26% 30.14 -0.392 79.88% -0.115 -0.071
River Surges in Sunlight 302 49.83% 33.23 0.485 76.16% -0.061 0.0919
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 175 35.06% 37.53 2.081 78.86% -0.064 0.0801
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 132 53.03% 28.76 -0.888 81.06% 0.072 0.5146
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 138 35.29% 38.48 1.857 80.43% 0.033 -0.0387
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 221 48.18% 31.6 -0.345 76.02% -0.033 -0.0542
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 171 38.24% 35.53 1.96 83.63% 0.495 0.7045
Thunderspeaker 145 34.97% 36.19 1.053 77.24% -0.483 -0.4287
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 126 63.71% 30.71 -0.23 76.19% 0.034 0.0479
Vital Strength of the Earth 105 46.15% 29.13 -0.961 76.19% -0.32 0.5484
Volcano Looming High 329 62.8% 29.15 -1.346 66.57% -0.553 -0.5814

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.57%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.96%
The Fog Closes In 97.67%
Unnerving Pall 98.02%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 753 22.33 5.05%
II 2208 30.75 36.96%
III 3513 34.25 87.25%
IV 3309 37.47 99.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 38
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3031
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 791
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3296
Lose: Invader deck ran out 16
Lose: Adversary condition 806
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 51
Win: Scenario condition 52
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1639
Lose: Spirit destroyed 47

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.2 Win Model: -0.269

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.448 Win Model: 0.012
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6624 64.49% 28.11 71.63%
2 1981 49.62% 31.26 78.75%
3 711 49.3% 34.36 76.51%
4 467 35.82% 35.64 80.3%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)