Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 28 42.86% 19.5 57.14% 0.247 -0.0081 -0.23
Blitz 0 257 47.22% 25.51 63.42% -0.606 -0.4083 -0.361
Dahan Insurrection 4 322 31.37% 45.11 64.6% -0.576 -1.0182 0.152
Despicable Theft 2 221 53.39% 30.32 73.3% -0.36 0.4519 -0.518
Elemental Invocation 1 207 52.91% 25.39 64.25% -0.535 0.1682 -1.373
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1159 21.49% 40.53 71.7% 0.299 -0.3453 0.886
Powers Long Forgotten 1 95 67.37% 26.67 57.89% -0.392 0.2437 -0.031
Rituals of Terror 3 75 75.68% 30.48 46.67% -0.01 0.0909 -0.363
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 32 78.13% 24.41 28.13% -1.43 -0.4206 -0.852
Second Wave 0 1156 47.2% 25.9 72.84% 0.472 0.538 -0.027
The Great River 3 68 54.41% 21.84 35.29% -1.305 -0.0879 -0.926
Varied Terrains 2 54 66.67% 21.96 46.3% -0.237 0.3858 -0.544
Ward the Shores 2 125 61.6% 30.42 57.6% -0.312 0.7724 -0.656

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 22126 63.16% 26.16 66.74% -0.027 0.0274 -0.011
1 Thematic 607 60.2% 26.77 54.53% -0.5 -0.0219 -0.945
2 Archipelago 43 55.81% 27.16 69.77% 0.135 0.2386 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6369 58.19% 28.62 68.16% 0.321 0.4034 -0.154
2 Coastline 725 50.14% 30.12 74.21% 0.288 0.1335 0.499
2 Fragment 182 62.43% 23.91 62.09% 0.521 0.2717 -0.866
2 Heart 115 52.17% 28.95 70.43% -0.147 -0.4342 1.224
2 Opposite Shores 1408 46.53% 27.49 75.28% -0.204 -0.1814 -0.519
2 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.8237 0.0
2 Thematic 349 54.91% 29.95 69.63% -0.142 0.2614 0.011
2 Top to Top 186 50.81% 30.87 75.81% 0.687 0.5206 0.456
3 Archipelago 17 82.35% 34.12 58.82% 0.163 -1.3862 0.834
3 Coastline 27 61.54% 27.56 74.07% 0.874 0.3608 1.145
3 Other 132 48.46% 29.04 83.33% 0.246 0.7864 0.61
3 Round (Default) 3279 52.34% 30.53 71.97% 0.226 0.1106 0.069
3 Sunrise 17 47.06% 30.76 76.47% 0.0 0.2798 0.0
3 Thematic 126 56.35% 31.61 63.49% 0.261 0.3416 -1.001
4 Archipelago 42 57.14% 30.12 66.67% 0.756 0.082 0.191
4 Coastline 16 37.5% 24.5 62.5% -0.089 0.1417 -0.476
4 Leaf 11 45.45% 33.55 72.73% 0.236 -0.1068 0.0
4 Other 75 45.95% 29.91 81.33% 0.433 -0.6508 -0.018
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 328 28.05% 44.32 75.91% -0.368 -0.6306 0.05
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1835 37.69% 31.39 80.22% 0.175 0.0924 -0.019
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 30.22 55.56% 0.0 -0.9161 -0.398
5 Coastline 6 0.0% 27.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.6517 0.0
5 Other 185 35.47% 30.91 76.76% -0.61 -0.8952 0.844
5 Thematic 25 36.0% 32.44 68.0% -0.28 -0.3741 -0.225
6 Archipelago 12 16.67% 30.0 83.33% -0.689 -0.5373 0.0
6 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.67 66.67% -0.065 -0.8654 0.0
6 Other 80 30.77% 29.05 82.5% 0.477 0.2445 -0.344
6 Star 39 38.46% 25.44 64.1% -0.645 -0.6574 0.52
6 Thematic 150 32.89% 27.54 53.33% -0.656 -0.236 -1.203
6 Two Centers (Default) 243 28.15% 27.8 77.37% -0.849 -0.745 -0.022
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.384 -0.4024 0.0
7 Other 8 42.86% 32.25 62.5% -0.159 -0.7716 -0.277

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1543 27.99 54.05% 0.52 0.7621 0.343
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1390 29.62 56.47% -0.2 -0.2777 0.327
All Things Weaken 1772 27.37 56.26% 0.028 0.4209 0.391
Attenuated Essence 73 25.97 57.53% 0.77 0.8766 -0.016
Back Against the Wall 1349 28.56 53.74% 0.761 0.8182 0.118
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 74 21.18 36.49% -0.167 0.0347 -0.128
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 28.07 65.91% 0.852 1.062 0.602
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1427 24.71 49.19% 0.143 0.5665 -0.102
Downward Spiral 1818 26.44 60.62% 0.387 0.6227 0.223
Erosion of Will 1523 26.9 52.2% 0.22 0.5288 0.038
Intensifying Exploitation 68 21.65 36.76% -0.037 0.2504 -0.266
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 611 29.98 79.87% 0.629 0.1356 0.296
Memory Fades to Dust 1814 25.44 58.05% 0.219 0.5556 0.108
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1681 26.13 54.55% 0.201 0.4219 -0.097
Promising Farmlands 1454 26.55 52.75% 0.225 0.678 -0.122
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 26.72 44.19% -0.13 -0.0791 0.228
Slow Dissolution of Will 56 20.84 39.29% -0.176 0.2235 -0.65
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 409 30.17 82.64% 0.693 -0.0173 0.628
The Border of Life and Death 17 18.18 58.82% 0.426 0.0901 -0.203
Thriving Communities 1699 25.68 53.27% -0.034 0.3292 0.21
Thriving Crops 26 20.81 50.0% 0.416 0.2179 -0.085
Unnatural Proliferation 1783 27.63 54.46% 0.199 0.4139 0.062
Untended Land Crumbles 1618 25.55 52.72% 0.165 0.4472 -0.216

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8455 54.5% 27.68 70.87% 0.217 0.957 0.012
B 8178 53.57% 28.21 70.93% 0.259 0.9851 0.156
C 9280 54.66% 28.34 70.69% 0.308 0.8904 0.05
D 7703 53.9% 27.86 70.39% 0.176 0.8869 -0.054
E 8403 55.02% 29.1 70.08% 0.227 0.7925 0.05
F 7101 55.93% 28.67 70.57% 0.226 0.896 0.317
G 6431 53.73% 28.54 71.34% 0.497 1.1488 0.163
H 6384 53.83% 28.44 71.37% 0.44 1.0101 0.066
East 1226 45.95% 33.57 65.91% 0.401 0.94 0.517
Northeast 714 40.93% 34.38 66.81% -0.39 0.2451 -0.689
Northwest 603 40.07% 34.51 65.17% 0.193 1.0025 -0.985
Southeast 516 39.61% 31.9 63.95% -0.727 -0.0211 -1.35
Southwest 477 41.47% 29.9 59.12% -0.221 0.7691 -0.611
West 1074 44.25% 33.16 64.06% -0.943 -0.0392 -0.197

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 433 0.0% 24.93 76.44% -0.369 0.4073 0.869
Not Using Events or Tokens 527 57.26% 22.16 88.99% 0.148 0.5273 0.476
Skip Initial Invader Actions 966 21.52% 37.99 86.44% -0.098 -0.7159 0.99
Start of Game Growth 1305 23.29% 37.98 88.05% 0.636 0.2878 0.569
Unlimited Undo 3724 48.04% 30.33 77.93% -0.228 -0.2342 0.73
Using Tokens but Not Events 3716 39.43% 22.8 79.36% 0.022 0.0119 -0.106

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2225 100.0% 32.01 100.0% 0.139 -0.0089 0.665
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1042 100.0% 28.37 100.0% -0.483 -0.3525 0.273
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 803 100.0% 29.63 100.0% -0.19 -0.3351 0.07
Downpour Drenches the World 390 100.0% 26.76 100.0% -0.249 -0.0701 0.183
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 195 100.0% 25.96 100.0% 0.528 -0.2371 0.196
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1168 100.0% 30.91 100.0% 0.216 -0.3724 0.516
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 795 100.0% 32.09 100.0% 0.147 -0.3499 0.105
Finder of Paths Unseen 172 100.0% 28.79 100.0% -0.273 0.3911 0.563
Fractured Days Split the Sky 525 100.0% 35.35 100.0% -0.127 0.4593 0.06
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 664 100.0% 28.38 100.0% 0.036 -0.0585 0.028
Heart of the Wildfire 692 100.0% 28.02 100.0% 0.091 0.3319 0.067
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1351 100.0% 32.61 100.0% -0.147 -0.589 0.568
Lightning's Swift Strike 440 179.65% 27.8 146.59% 0.575 0.7582 -0.316
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 90 72.22% 29.06 55.56% -0.333 -0.8198 -1.014
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 290 49.65% 31.14 78.28% -0.066 -0.2336 0.22
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 352 44.54% 29.48 71.02% 0.494 0.3803 0.112
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1376 100.0% 30.32 100.0% -0.231 -0.3631 0.175
Many Minds Move as One 781 100.0% 31.76 100.0% 0.496 0.2745 0.854
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1318 100.0% 32.47 100.0% -0.344 -0.3864 0.58
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 849 100.0% 29.61 100.0% 0.474 0.2964 -0.19
River Surges in Sunlight 757 141.91% 32.79 126.29% 0.377 0.4473 -0.062
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 457 46.22% 30.96 68.71% 0.634 0.9447 -1.106
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 146 45.14% 33.34 61.64% 0.339 0.2257 -0.376
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1106 100.0% 32.36 100.0% 0.409 0.1713 0.053
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 206 253.99% 24.82 189.32% 0.276 0.8059 -0.568
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 41 52.5% 26.32 63.41% 0.431 0.3557 -0.545
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 58 50.0% 28.91 70.69% -0.061 -0.1673 0.405
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 321 50.32% 28.09 75.08% -0.612 -0.6301 -0.33
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 250 50.6% 25.28 71.2% -0.901 -0.7241 0.044
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 708 104.52% 32.5 104.38% 0.207 0.0174 0.145
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 55 41.82% 18.93 43.64% -0.077 -0.4586 -0.874
Shifting Memory of Ages 1191 100.0% 27.87 100.0% -0.05 0.3035 -0.82
Starlight Seeks its Form 570 100.0% 29.63 100.0% -0.408 -0.6698 0.181
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1074 100.0% 29.08 100.0% -0.189 -0.6667 -0.027
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 804 100.0% 32.4 100.0% 0.165 0.2281 0.328
Thunderspeaker 780 104.36% 32.79 103.97% 1.046 1.0117 0.673
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 53 35.85% 18.77 41.51% -0.81 -0.8497 -0.511
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 806 100.0% 26.73 100.0% -0.763 -0.6699 0.271
Vital Strength of the Earth 398 143.39% 24.79 124.12% -1.001 -0.476 -0.028
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 76 26.32% 26.07 69.74% 0.68 0.9401 0.225
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 220 45.62% 26.76 66.82% -0.227 0.549 -0.712
Volcano Looming High 1211 100.0% 27.81 100.0% -0.131 -0.1737 -0.016

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.03%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.12%
The Fog Closes In 97.48%
Unnerving Pall 97.58%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4428 20.4 3.61%
II 9129 31.01 34.54%
III 13332 34.76 85.83%
IV 11890 38.07 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 160
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11278
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3015
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11827
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1280
Lose: Invader deck ran out 71
Lose: Adversary condition 3269
Win: Sacrifice victory 55
Lose: Scenario condition 279
Win: Scenario condition 279
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7117
Lose: Spirit destroyed 149

Difficulty

Score Model: 0.926 Win Model: -0.19

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.132 Win Model: 0.072
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 22797 63.09% 26.18 66.36%
2 9407 55.57% 28.59 69.86%
3 3528 52.38% 30.51 72.39%
4 2360 36.57% 33.22 79.28%
5 172 36.65% 28.06 72.09%
6 515 29.45% 27.66 71.07%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)