Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 95 46.24% 27.65 -1.392 78.95% -0.415 0.1529
Dahan Insurrection 4 127 26.77% 50.03 9.129 74.02% -0.768 -0.3699
Despicable Theft 2 161 52.8% 30.7 1.277 77.64% -0.552 -0.2936
Elemental Invocation 1 111 57.66% 27.67 -1.537 68.47% -0.753 -0.2888
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 558 19.31% 44.63 4.982 77.24% -0.419 -0.0524
Powers Long Forgotten 1 29 68.97% 25.55 -1.789 55.17% -1.041 -0.5954
Rituals of Terror 3 28 96.43% 23.68 -2.025 32.14% -1.611 -0.9663
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 100.0% 25.38 -1.551 25.0% -0.874 -0.2294
Second Wave 0 302 56.38% 25.63 -1.929 69.87% -0.921 -0.4932
The Great River 3 25 64.0% 27.28 -0.092 48.0% -1.762 -0.2911
Ward the Shores 2 43 67.44% 30.93 0.136 48.84% -1.06 -0.0269

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 10689 64.98% 28.19 -0.552 70.48% -0.029 0.155
1 Thematic 260 59.46% 28.0 -0.925 60.38% -0.764 -0.3908
2 Archipelago 8 25.0% 34.38 2.54 87.5% 0.144 0.3592
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2555 54.29% 30.57 0.29 75.23% 0.172 0.2325
2 Coastline 288 51.06% 31.87 0.819 78.47% 0.404 0.4191
2 Fragment 67 64.18% 22.16 -3.303 61.19% -0.872 -0.6058
2 Heart 27 48.15% 30.15 0.017 77.78% 0.118 0.2716
2 Opposite Shores 686 43.09% 28.66 -0.433 81.49% 0.166 0.2647
2 Thematic 141 53.19% 30.73 0.172 79.43% 0.008 -0.0251
2 Top to Top 78 44.16% 31.28 0.72 76.92% 0.259 0.2398
3 Archipelago 2 50.0% 20.0 -4.49 50.0% -0.353 0.7047
3 Coastline 8 37.5% 29.0 -0.825 87.5% 0.475 0.273
3 Other 51 45.1% 33.06 1.215 90.2% 0.792 0.9789
3 Round (Default) 1300 51.43% 32.77 0.602 75.54% 0.24 0.1712
3 Sunrise 5 40.0% 35.2 1.86 100.0% 0.565 0.2978
3 Thematic 48 50.0% 35.6 0.773 68.75% -0.405 -0.8035
4 Archipelago 13 76.92% 21.31 -4.862 15.38% -1.172 -0.7314
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 24.71 -5.496 42.86% -1.27 -1.2169
4 Leaf 7 42.86% 35.29 0.194 57.14% -0.439 -0.4639
4 Other 30 56.67% 33.3 -0.098 80.0% 0.445 0.3445
4 Thematic 206 21.84% 51.65 5.458 83.01% 0.206 -0.873
4 Trapezoid (Default) 761 36.6% 33.15 0.088 83.18% 0.34 0.2576
5 Archipelago 3 33.33% 21.0 -5.847 33.33% -1.188 -0.283
5 Other 20 31.58% 43.9 5.348 100.0% 1.563 0.9532
5 Thematic 6 33.33% 56.5 7.988 100.0% 0.626 -2.254

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 741 28.79 -0.961 55.87% -1.707 0.3661
Aid From Lesser Spirits 643 31.07 0.17 63.14% -1.45 0.4693
All Things Weaken 813 29.56 -0.393 61.13% -1.524 0.6467
Back Against the Wall 640 29.11 -0.85 55.31% -1.773 0.3187
Disintegrating Ecosystem 662 25.63 -2.708 48.94% -2.009 0.2168
Downward Spiral 861 27.24 -1.294 64.58% -1.496 0.527
Erosion of Will 686 29.36 -0.599 58.6% -1.593 0.6161
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 284 30.93 0.401 82.04% -0.487 0.1993
Memory Fades to Dust 858 26.5 -1.599 63.17% -1.631 0.5878
Power Corrodes the Spirit 744 27.76 -1.283 56.59% -1.686 0.3371
Promising Farmlands 627 27.6 -1.667 54.55% -1.775 0.4391
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 192 31.15 0.276 81.25% -0.607 -0.1968
Thriving Communities 801 27.89 -1.246 57.8% -1.662 0.4327
Unnatural Proliferation 834 28.77 -0.846 55.88% -1.737 0.3491
Untended Land Crumbles 713 27.48 -1.573 54.42% -1.758 0.349

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2368 59.33% 27.53 -0.761 73.1% -0.026 -0.8095
B 2124 57.73% 28.74 -0.3 72.36% -0.035 -0.9157
C 2500 59.89% 29.17 0.038 74.92% 0.13 -0.982
D 1876 59.51% 28.81 -0.307 72.55% 0.008 -0.8656
E 2619 60.7% 31.73 0.878 70.41% 0.109 -0.879
F 1806 61.72% 29.17 -0.192 70.38% -0.071 -1.008
G 1687 58.66% 29.92 0.3 76.35% 0.233 -0.6941
H 1625 58.63% 28.59 -0.363 73.42% 0.013 -0.9244
East 191 42.11% 41.72 3.473 77.49% 0.39 -0.2824
Northeast 141 41.84% 37.82 1.852 75.89% 0.041 -0.5825
Northwest 87 50.57% 34.45 1.188 73.56% -0.031 -0.7231
Southeast 83 43.37% 34.01 0.095 66.27% -0.152 -0.8809
Southwest 71 56.34% 28.7 -2.072 59.15% -0.424 -0.7195
West 88 46.59% 35.7 1.185 71.59% -0.154 -0.5748

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 156 0.0% 24.69 -2.372 83.97% -1.645 0.4121
Not Using Events or Tokens 336 61.15% 22.75 -1.973 94.35% 0.954 1.1698
Skip Initial Invader Actions 429 17.55% 42.32 3.395 91.38% 0.308 -0.3803
Start of Game Growth 602 21.3% 41.27 3.486 90.37% 0.79 0.3211
Unlimited Undo 1675 48.17% 33.09 1.335 84.48% 0.512 0.0916
Using Tokens but Not Events 1445 41.72% 24.48 -2.379 83.39% -0.195 -0.2471

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 967 30.51% 35.15 1.724 87.28% 0.551 0.6671
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 395 56.71% 30.59 -0.221 72.41% -0.303 -0.094
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 315 45.67% 33.73 1.148 82.86% 0.329 0.2251
Eyes Watch From the Trees 475 37.74% 33.04 1.026 85.05% 0.38 -0.01
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 329 46.25% 32.7 0.665 81.16% 0.136 -0.1531
Fractured Days Split the Sky 228 38.77% 41.02 2.713 78.95% -0.067 0.2853
Heart of the Wildfire 260 64.06% 30.56 -0.881 63.08% -0.382 -0.0521
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 655 43.01% 34.6 1.288 82.75% 0.326 -0.0022
Lightning's Swift Strike 443 52.68% 31.84 0.204 75.85% -0.088 0.1502
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 620 49.43% 32.91 -0.01 72.9% -0.298 -0.5841
Many Minds Move as One 290 44.01% 34.32 1.553 80.69% 0.307 -0.2222
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 553 46.77% 34.97 1.407 77.76% 0.123 -0.0891
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 303 45.67% 29.43 -0.506 78.88% -0.068 -0.0431
River Surges in Sunlight 570 47.5% 34.96 0.942 77.54% -0.056 0.0759
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 407 35.47% 38.52 2.291 79.85% 0.027 0.1453
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 300 54.52% 28.27 -1.265 75.67% -0.152 0.2676
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 268 39.47% 35.5 1.046 81.72% 0.194 0.1
Shifting Memory of Ages 194 56.7% 27.44 -1.652 67.01% -0.565 -0.485
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 434 47.88% 30.85 -0.479 75.81% -0.007 -0.052
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 321 39.24% 34.9 1.791 82.87% 0.503 0.6806
Thunderspeaker 330 40.37% 34.5 0.746 78.48% -0.157 -0.1223
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 290 65.73% 29.93 -0.417 72.76% 0.022 0.0062
Vital Strength of the Earth 241 45.15% 28.66 -1.164 74.27% -0.435 0.4201
Volcano Looming High 602 59.87% 29.36 -0.994 70.27% -0.346 -0.3656

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.53%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.62%
The Fog Closes In 97.56%
Unnerving Pall 97.85%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1399 22.35 5.15%
II 4016 30.84 36.73%
III 6180 34.35 86.96%
IV 5671 37.52 99.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 72
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5301
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1421
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5644
Lose: Invader deck ran out 32
Lose: Adversary condition 1445
Win: Sacrifice victory 24
Lose: Scenario condition 120
Win: Scenario condition 115
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3013
Lose: Spirit destroyed 79

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.139 Win Model: -0.269

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.415 Win Model: 0.008
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 10953 64.84% 28.19 70.24%
2 3876 51.96% 30.25 76.73%
3 1397 51.08% 32.73 75.52%
4 1040 34.25% 36.96 82.21%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)