Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 33.33% 24.58 50.0% 0.216 0.7116 0.0
Blitz 0 210 47.09% 26.28 69.05% -0.357 0.0864 -0.584
Dahan Insurrection 4 274 30.66% 47.9 69.71% -1.003 -0.9059 0.055
Despicable Theft 2 205 53.66% 31.21 75.61% 0.291 0.7901 -0.278
Elemental Invocation 1 168 59.52% 26.58 69.64% -0.414 0.1317 -1.564
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1039 21.37% 41.58 73.72% -0.647 -0.4156 0.69
Powers Long Forgotten 1 82 74.39% 29.1 63.41% 0.032 0.4393 0.124
Rituals of Terror 3 64 82.54% 31.91 46.88% 0.098 -0.1382 -0.211
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 22 90.91% 31.86 36.36% 0.543 0.7694 -0.759
Second Wave 0 942 50.38% 26.32 73.14% -0.553 0.14 0.085
The Great River 3 50 66.0% 25.92 42.0% 0.0 1.5815 -0.801
Varied Terrains 2 25 72.0% 23.8 48.0% -0.521 0.2653 -0.505
Ward the Shores 2 106 64.15% 31.89 58.49% -0.346 0.5346 -0.715

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19390 64.31% 27.09 68.96% -0.05 0.6126 0.004
1 Thematic 529 62.67% 28.49 57.66% 0.316 1.3727 -0.941
2 Archipelago 36 58.33% 28.47 69.44% -0.472 -0.0015 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5515 59.36% 29.59 69.74% 0.031 0.5486 -0.216
2 Coastline 620 50.33% 31.52 76.94% 0.024 0.2246 0.629
2 Fragment 161 60.62% 24.37 66.46% 0.287 0.5852 -0.661
2 Heart 92 54.35% 29.86 77.17% 0.619 1.0799 1.133
2 Opposite Shores 1207 46.58% 28.65 79.04% 0.471 1.0096 -0.462
2 Thematic 301 58.05% 31.51 73.42% -0.287 0.495 -0.161
2 Top to Top 159 51.27% 30.72 76.73% 0.206 0.3344 0.41
3 Archipelago 15 86.67% 33.8 60.0% -0.523 -0.7414 0.443
3 Coastline 26 60.0% 27.31 73.08% 0.303 -0.2038 0.606
3 Other 115 47.79% 29.24 85.22% 0.892 0.228 1.014
3 Round (Default) 2755 52.3% 31.68 74.74% 0.155 0.4597 -0.007
3 Sunrise 17 47.06% 30.76 76.47% -0.699 -0.2391 0.0
3 Thematic 100 59.0% 33.35 67.0% 0.205 0.4129 -0.775
4 Archipelago 34 67.65% 29.32 61.76% 0.047 0.0101 0.0
4 Coastline 13 46.15% 26.0 61.54% 0.0 -0.0373 -0.49
4 Leaf 10 50.0% 31.8 70.0% 0.0 -0.1019 0.0
4 Other 68 45.59% 31.01 82.35% -0.023 -0.7366 -0.085
4 Thematic 307 26.71% 45.67 77.85% -1.346 -1.2423 -0.184
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1579 37.2% 32.4 83.66% 0.172 0.2501 -0.027
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 30.22 55.56% -0.424 -0.5219 -0.383
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.035 -0.5523 0.0
5 Other 127 36.75% 35.98 84.25% 0.196 -0.3207 0.88
5 Thematic 18 38.89% 36.89 77.78% -0.318 -0.6055 -0.2
6 Archipelago 10 10.0% 34.3 100.0% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 60 31.03% 29.4 83.33% -0.779 -0.7343 -0.288
6 Star 26 23.08% 29.08 76.92% 0.167 0.937 -0.226
6 Thematic 99 40.82% 34.57 67.68% 0.584 0.8246 -0.708
6 Two Centers (Default) 176 29.14% 32.71 89.2% 0.201 0.3922 0.45
7 Other 6 60.0% 43.0 83.33% 0.082 -0.4021 0.22

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1402 28.17 54.49% -1.633 0.3381 0.027
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1267 30.23 57.93% -1.424 0.3533 0.128
All Things Weaken 1587 27.96 57.28% -1.354 0.6948 0.213
Back Against the Wall 1219 28.82 53.4% -1.228 0.7109 -0.048
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1300 24.96 49.23% -1.428 0.6997 -0.354
Downward Spiral 1625 26.74 61.48% -1.399 0.5623 -0.003
Erosion of Will 1372 27.06 52.7% -1.971 0.1109 -0.227
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 527 30.86 81.78% 0.038 0.5393 0.133
Memory Fades to Dust 1610 26.09 59.57% -1.293 0.8475 -0.087
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1510 26.65 55.43% -1.495 0.4853 -0.334
Promising Farmlands 1315 26.8 53.38% -1.617 0.4047 -0.318
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 368 30.71 83.15% -0.266 0.2306 0.519
Thriving Communities 1523 26.24 53.78% -1.415 0.6444 -0.012
Unnatural Proliferation 1608 28.03 55.22% -1.748 0.2086 -0.093
Untended Land Crumbles 1441 26.06 53.23% -1.882 0.1511 -0.381

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7279 55.79% 28.65 73.35% 0.111 0.8473 0.051
B 7005 54.47% 29.21 73.58% 0.199 0.8966 0.168
C 7950 55.48% 29.47 73.3% 0.133 0.6026 0.07
D 6542 54.99% 29.14 73.56% 0.026 0.7354 0.007
E 7227 56.07% 30.28 72.48% 0.047 0.5914 0.115
F 6099 56.36% 29.83 73.13% 0.49 1.1511 0.241
G 5490 54.8% 29.45 73.7% 0.018 0.6489 0.141
H 5449 54.5% 29.6 74.0% 0.177 0.8421 0.101
East 1046 47.55% 36.22 70.65% -0.389 0.2723 0.645
Northeast 591 42.35% 37.7 73.27% 0.491 1.151 -0.731
Northwest 490 43.21% 38.06 71.22% 0.647 1.2574 -1.042
Southeast 423 43.13% 35.54 70.69% -0.601 -0.0694 -0.993
Southwest 382 45.26% 33.5 66.23% 0.06 1.0284 -0.743
West 902 46.6% 36.03 69.4% -1.055 -0.2496 -0.106

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 361 0.0% 26.85 82.55% -1.461 0.7683 0.632
Not Using Events or Tokens 481 60.32% 22.14 90.44% -0.2 0.0269 0.101
Skip Initial Invader Actions 837 18.61% 39.29 90.92% 1.194 0.2134 0.698
Start of Game Growth 1162 22.29% 38.97 90.79% 0.794 0.3368 0.596
Unlimited Undo 3164 47.39% 31.71 82.49% 0.26 -0.2912 0.993
Using Tokens but Not Events 3100 39.98% 24.04 83.16% -0.07 0.0847 -0.067

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1920 100.0% 33.51 100.0% 0.064 -0.011 0.767
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 856 100.0% 30.07 100.0% 0.395 0.4736 -0.019
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 679 100.0% 31.23 100.0% 0.052 -0.1729 0.115
Downpour Drenches the World 217 100.0% 31.85 100.0% -0.151 0.1134 0.277
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1034 100.0% 31.84 100.0% 0.289 -0.2137 0.378
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 700 100.0% 32.94 100.0% 1.181 0.594 0.12
Finder of Paths Unseen 90 100.0% 33.44 100.0% -0.053 0.3027 0.533
Fractured Days Split the Sky 462 100.0% 37.54 100.0% 0.161 0.2434 0.064
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 533 100.0% 30.13 100.0% 0.34 0.245 -0.261
Heart of the Wildfire 587 100.0% 29.9 100.0% -0.657 -0.2518 -0.007
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1172 100.0% 34.15 100.0% 0.068 -0.5357 0.458
Lightning's Swift Strike 357 178.9% 29.78 136.69% 0.358 0.7231 -0.229
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 36 58.33% 31.94 86.11% 0.105 -0.6443 -0.282
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 248 52.07% 33.28 81.85% 0.187 -0.3769 0.125
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 299 47.14% 30.54 72.91% 0.782 0.288 -0.054
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1216 100.0% 31.43 100.0% 0.319 0.1673 0.026
Many Minds Move as One 675 100.0% 32.7 100.0% -0.086 -0.6716 0.849
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1147 100.0% 34.07 100.0% 0.699 0.5294 0.442
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 714 100.0% 30.14 100.0% -0.087 -0.143 -0.53
River Surges in Sunlight 666 138.84% 34.32 123.57% -0.522 -0.5961 -0.144
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 419 46.49% 31.55 68.97% -0.765 -0.3388 -1.295
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 80 50.0% 37.48 66.25% -0.569 -0.9099 -0.397
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 943 100.0% 34.11 100.0% -0.444 -0.6382 0.056
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 167 264.5% 25.38 175.45% 0.444 0.9182 -0.588
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 21 52.38% 26.57 66.67% -0.345 -0.165 -0.634
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 33 60.61% 35.12 84.85% -0.296 -0.2402 0.741
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 275 48.72% 29.44 79.64% -0.448 -0.4708 0.187
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 228 49.56% 26.23 74.56% 0.064 0.18 0.209
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 626 100.0% 32.94 100.0% 0.142 -0.0488 -0.071
Shifting Memory of Ages 1040 100.0% 28.9 100.0% 0.48 0.6945 -0.975
Starlight Seeks its Form 452 100.0% 31.34 100.0% 0.183 0.0684 -0.132
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 937 100.0% 30.32 100.0% -0.052 -0.2913 -0.229
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 678 100.0% 33.93 100.0% -0.302 -0.1714 0.334
Thunderspeaker 691 100.0% 33.3 100.0% 0.002 -0.0157 0.825
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 651 100.0% 28.74 100.0% 0.104 -0.1112 0.259
Vital Strength of the Earth 345 137.68% 26.16 120.0% -1.143 -0.2447 -0.181
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 43 37.21% 30.05 74.42% 0.077 0.4995 0.237
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 195 47.18% 27.91 70.26% -0.17 0.9441 -0.799
Volcano Looming High 1052 100.0% 28.95 100.0% -0.393 -0.414 -0.049

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.21%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.1%
The Fog Closes In 97.49%
Unnerving Pall 97.58%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3054 22.65 4.65%
II 7982 31.08 35.53%
III 11853 34.66 86.13%
IV 10697 37.91 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 142
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10058
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2714
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10641
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 2963
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Scenario condition 241
Win: Scenario condition 252
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6326
Lose: Spirit destroyed 134

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.84 Win Model: -0.295

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.243 Win Model: 0.083
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 19968 64.29% 27.14 68.6%
2 8121 56.56% 29.63 72.06%
3 2973 52.28% 31.54 75.01%
4 2047 36.13% 34.44 82.32%
5 109 39.6% 32.24 77.98%
6 368 30.85% 32.62 83.15%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)