Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 25.0% 30.0 50.0% -0.274 -0.4758 0.0
Blitz 0 186 48.63% 26.8 68.82% -0.149 0.1084 -0.524
Dahan Insurrection 4 249 31.33% 48.35 71.49% -0.198 0.2149 0.117
Despicable Theft 2 198 53.03% 31.39 76.77% -0.079 0.3671 -0.221
Elemental Invocation 1 158 60.76% 26.57 68.35% -0.255 0.2304 -1.551
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 889 18.89% 42.57 77.28% 0.426 0.7319 0.861
Powers Long Forgotten 1 72 73.61% 27.93 61.11% -0.192 -0.0103 -0.3
Rituals of Terror 3 60 86.44% 31.73 45.0% -0.39 -0.2688 -0.172
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 19 89.47% 30.58 31.58% -0.638 -0.2231 -0.727
Second Wave 0 790 51.79% 25.88 72.03% -0.704 -0.138 0.196
The Great River 3 49 65.31% 25.78 40.82% -1.357 0.0407 -0.838
Varied Terrains 2 15 80.0% 21.53 40.0% -1.334 -0.8086 -0.468
Ward the Shores 2 97 64.95% 31.36 57.73% -0.326 0.8358 -1.016

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 17330 64.94% 27.19 69.07% 0.219 1.2347 0.035
1 Thematic 487 63.56% 28.36 56.26% -0.226 0.9462 -0.899
2 Archipelago 35 57.14% 28.91 71.43% -1.507 -0.5239 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4965 59.17% 29.63 69.51% 0.263 1.0147 -0.216
2 Coastline 549 49.63% 31.43 79.05% 1.067 1.6695 0.989
2 Fragment 153 61.18% 23.88 65.36% 0.318 0.7659 -0.53
2 Heart 73 58.9% 30.84 76.71% -0.383 0.155 0.626
2 Opposite Shores 1103 46.76% 28.66 78.51% 0.035 1.0271 -0.48
2 Thematic 268 58.11% 31.41 73.88% -0.238 0.4602 -0.112
2 Top to Top 149 52.7% 30.32 75.84% -0.002 0.5086 0.095
3 Archipelago 14 85.71% 34.64 64.29% -0.031 0.1425 0.518
3 Coastline 22 59.09% 25.55 68.18% 0.807 0.024 0.279
3 Other 102 48.0% 28.75 84.31% 0.806 0.77 0.997
3 Round (Default) 2438 52.22% 31.66 74.94% -0.159 0.4354 -0.066
3 Sunrise 13 61.54% 34.23 84.62% 0.508 0.5452 0.0
3 Thematic 90 60.0% 33.29 64.44% -0.304 -0.3416 -0.817
4 Archipelago 33 69.7% 28.88 60.61% 0.159 -0.5521 0.0
4 Coastline 10 50.0% 23.6 50.0% -0.158 -0.0409 -0.517
4 Leaf 9 55.56% 30.89 66.67% 0.0 0.5626 0.0
4 Other 63 46.03% 31.89 82.54% -0.855 -1.1093 -0.098
4 Thematic 295 26.1% 46.57 78.64% -0.833 -0.304 -0.21
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1427 36.94% 32.34 83.81% 0.38 0.3525 0.046
5 Archipelago 7 42.86% 31.86 57.14% 0.0 -0.5788 -0.3
5 Coastline 3 0.0% 29.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 103 36.17% 37.2 87.38% -0.197 -0.0292 1.025
5 Thematic 17 35.29% 37.35 82.35% 0.128 -0.1492 0.0
6 Archipelago 10 10.0% 34.3 100.0% 0.033 -0.2229 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.5891 0.0
6 Other 48 27.66% 28.73 83.33% 0.009 0.818 0.096
6 Star 22 27.27% 30.0 72.73% 0.141 0.9244 -0.192
6 Thematic 74 43.84% 33.27 63.51% -0.965 -1.2441 -0.911
6 Two Centers (Default) 122 33.06% 31.39 89.34% 0.631 0.5371 0.426
7 Other 2 100.0% 65.5 100.0% 0.411 -0.741 0.185

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1274 27.95 54.4% -1.537 0.3664 0.031
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1148 30.35 58.36% -1.556 0.1737 0.243
All Things Weaken 1426 28.14 57.64% -1.813 0.1721 0.225
Back Against the Wall 1103 28.77 53.13% -1.298 0.5186 0.042
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1178 24.95 48.81% -2.051 -0.0005 -0.335
Downward Spiral 1448 26.5 61.81% -1.592 0.401 0.051
Erosion of Will 1233 27.34 53.53% -1.671 0.4124 -0.138
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 485 30.84 81.86% 0.245 0.6856 0.149
Memory Fades to Dust 1441 26.11 59.47% -1.823 0.2608 -0.077
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1372 26.71 55.1% -1.678 0.2603 -0.26
Promising Farmlands 1183 26.87 53.09% -1.413 0.6324 -0.238
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 332 30.74 83.73% -0.8 -0.3751 0.768
Thriving Communities 1374 26.31 53.42% -1.678 0.3052 0.018
Unnatural Proliferation 1443 28.18 55.51% -1.504 0.4607 -0.051
Untended Land Crumbles 1283 26.31 53.62% -1.603 0.3903 -0.313

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6484 55.96% 28.59 73.43% 0.446 1.2437 0.059
B 6219 54.67% 29.11 73.32% 0.129 0.8726 0.178
C 7062 55.85% 29.5 73.32% 0.233 0.8017 0.08
D 5838 55.24% 29.18 73.66% -0.086 0.7093 0.015
E 6491 56.71% 30.48 72.3% 0.226 0.8729 0.106
F 5419 56.88% 29.7 72.95% -0.058 0.6657 0.225
G 4876 55.28% 29.35 73.77% 0.028 0.76 0.153
H 4819 55.0% 29.63 74.21% 0.557 1.2695 0.191
East 942 47.71% 36.63 70.06% -0.048 0.7211 0.602
Northeast 537 42.51% 37.95 72.63% -0.265 0.5954 -0.742
Northwest 450 43.05% 38.2 71.11% -1.162 -0.0855 -0.929
Southeast 354 43.91% 36.18 69.49% -0.351 0.3552 -0.954
Southwest 327 46.46% 33.74 64.22% -0.204 0.9216 -0.924
West 819 46.56% 36.37 69.11% -0.411 0.5433 -0.002

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 308 0.0% 27.09 83.12% -0.624 1.5049 0.686
Not Using Events or Tokens 442 59.1% 22.34 91.86% -0.74 -0.5646 0.116
Skip Initial Invader Actions 745 18.37% 39.08 90.47% -0.808 -0.9499 0.42
Start of Game Growth 1037 22.59% 38.92 90.45% 1.193 0.4323 0.605
Unlimited Undo 2873 47.19% 31.82 82.84% 0.799 0.1953 0.994
Using Tokens but Not Events 2733 39.94% 24.03 83.5% 0.104 -0.0523 -0.016

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1703 100.0% 33.81 100.0% 0.097 -0.0181 0.844
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 745 100.0% 29.92 100.0% -0.29 -0.1942 0.043
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 602 100.0% 31.13 100.0% -0.525 -0.6859 0.239
Downpour Drenches the World 92 100.0% 32.28 100.0% 0.284 0.5364 -0.47
Eyes Watch From the Trees 922 100.0% 31.92 100.0% 0.195 -0.2429 0.383
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 636 100.0% 33.0 100.0% -0.102 -0.59 -0.02
Finder of Paths Unseen 47 100.0% 30.55 100.0% 0.257 0.6207 -0.391
Fractured Days Split the Sky 419 100.0% 37.42 100.0% 0.694 0.7496 0.008
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 460 100.0% 29.97 100.0% -0.111 -0.1433 -0.021
Heart of the Wildfire 505 100.0% 30.54 100.0% 0.23 0.4048 -0.049
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1058 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.183 -0.2735 0.426
Lightning's Swift Strike 325 176.51% 29.78 137.23% -0.411 -0.1369 -0.347
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 10 40.0% 32.4 90.0% 0.469 -0.3077 -0.19
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 229 52.23% 32.97 81.66% 0.12 -0.5227 0.101
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 272 47.78% 29.73 71.32% -0.708 -0.9747 -0.184
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1099 100.0% 31.5 100.0% -0.331 -0.5975 0.147
Many Minds Move as One 590 100.0% 33.23 100.0% 0.39 -0.2125 0.956
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1015 100.0% 34.03 100.0% -0.075 -0.2604 0.318
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 628 100.0% 30.08 100.0% 0.207 0.2282 -0.728
River Surges in Sunlight 614 133.55% 34.4 117.92% -0.242 -0.2766 -0.23
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 361 46.76% 31.47 71.75% -0.279 0.1525 -0.512
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 33 42.42% 37.06 75.76% 0.183 -0.1171 0.063
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 848 100.0% 34.52 100.0% 0.539 0.4861 0.073
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 154 257.69% 25.37 172.73% -0.005 0.4046 -0.469
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 7 28.57% 30.43 71.43% -0.5 -0.4935 -0.357
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 11 72.73% 35.18 90.91% 0.789 0.442 0.518
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 258 48.83% 29.68 79.07% -0.215 -0.1958 0.171
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 214 50.0% 26.21 74.3% 0.587 0.7698 0.202
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 562 100.0% 32.92 100.0% -0.176 -0.4626 -0.128
Shifting Memory of Ages 956 100.0% 28.86 100.0% 0.052 0.127 -1.039
Starlight Seeks its Form 367 100.0% 30.83 100.0% 0.189 0.0499 -0.223
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 840 100.0% 30.14 100.0% -0.284 -0.4658 -0.094
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 618 100.0% 33.86 100.0% 0.356 0.5403 0.352
Thunderspeaker 622 100.0% 33.12 100.0% -0.192 -0.1274 0.769
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 580 100.0% 28.49 100.0% -0.047 -0.1372 0.476
Vital Strength of the Earth 314 133.12% 26.68 118.47% -0.642 0.1661 -0.226
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 15 20.0% 28.4 80.0% -0.133 0.2541 0.472
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 181 49.17% 27.4 69.61% -0.588 0.5866 -0.615
Volcano Looming High 973 100.0% 29.03 100.0% 0.176 0.1715 -0.145

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.33%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.25%
The Fog Closes In 97.48%
Unnerving Pall 97.59%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2673 22.56 4.75%
II 7172 30.98 35.35%
III 10609 34.53 85.94%
IV 9584 37.77 99.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 127
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8978
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2422
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9536
Lose: Invader deck ran out 58
Lose: Adversary condition 2653
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Scenario condition 192
Win: Scenario condition 233
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5672
Lose: Spirit destroyed 123

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.129 Win Model: -0.249

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.223 Win Model: 0.193
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 17857 64.92% 27.24 68.67%
2 7328 56.52% 29.62 71.92%
3 2630 52.25% 31.49 75.17%
4 1867 35.69% 34.72 82.54%
5 84 40.26% 32.58 79.76%
6 272 32.84% 31.64 81.99%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)