Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 78 47.37% 26.85 -1.784 76.92% -0.52 0.0529
Dahan Insurrection 4 101 26.73% 50.21 8.894 75.25% -0.664 -0.264
Despicable Theft 2 152 53.95% 30.97 1.22 78.29% -0.549 -0.2663
Elemental Invocation 1 87 57.47% 27.54 -1.817 64.37% -0.983 -0.5434
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 453 19.91% 46.24 5.288 77.26% -0.405 -0.0392
Powers Long Forgotten 1 24 66.67% 24.25 -2.675 50.0% -1.304 -0.8623
Rituals of Terror 3 25 96.0% 24.2 -1.831 32.0% -1.608 -0.9638
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 100.0% 28.2 -0.573 40.0% -0.674 -0.0321
Second Wave 0 245 55.6% 25.85 -2.05 70.2% -0.952 -0.5241
The Great River 3 20 70.0% 25.35 -1.107 45.0% -1.75 -0.2905
Ward the Shores 2 33 63.64% 31.18 0.534 57.58% -0.87 0.1669

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 8998 64.17% 28.37 -0.639 71.72% -0.242 0.0904
1 Thematic 212 60.19% 27.92 -1.098 59.43% -0.867 -0.3687
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1981 53.12% 31.32 0.452 76.83% 0.028 0.2281
2 Coastline 226 49.1% 32.54 0.94 79.65% 0.299 0.4536
2 Fragment 55 61.82% 23.51 -2.827 67.27% -0.727 -0.3316
2 Heart 18 50.0% 31.61 0.382 77.78% -0.012 0.3102
2 Opposite Shores 571 42.33% 29.2 -0.437 80.56% -0.093 0.1361
2 Thematic 115 53.91% 30.62 0.038 79.13% -0.043 0.0183
2 Top to Top 57 48.21% 32.21 0.924 75.44% 0.145 0.2771
3 Coastline 6 33.33% 25.83 -2.311 83.33% 0.033 -0.0052
3 Other 42 38.1% 33.26 1.089 90.48% 0.535 0.9545
3 Round (Default) 1041 50.91% 33.28 0.646 77.23% 0.123 0.1793
3 Sunrise 3 33.33% 35.33 1.662 100.0% 0.388 0.1944
3 Thematic 38 47.37% 35.55 0.491 68.42% -0.472 -0.8015
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 24.71 -5.203 42.86% -1.351 -1.2259
4 Leaf 5 40.0% 41.2 2.095 60.0% -0.095 -0.049
4 Other 28 53.57% 34.43 0.02 82.14% 0.432 0.5442
4 Thematic 160 21.88% 54.43 6.021 83.13% 0.252 -0.7725
4 Trapezoid (Default) 601 36.77% 33.6 -0.043 83.36% 0.182 0.2164
5 Other 11 40.0% 47.73 6.152 100.0% 1.156 0.9006
5 Thematic 3 0.0% 69.0 10.984 100.0% 0.357 -2.5864

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 595 29.66 -0.705 57.98% -1.627 0.4459
Aid From Lesser Spirits 519 31.57 0.241 64.55% -1.436 0.4834
All Things Weaken 671 30.15 -0.248 62.59% -1.504 0.6549
Back Against the Wall 512 29.31 -0.891 57.42% -1.736 0.358
Disintegrating Ecosystem 539 26.24 -2.543 50.83% -1.97 0.2546
Downward Spiral 706 27.34 -1.336 66.15% -1.475 0.546
Erosion of Will 541 29.33 -0.757 58.23% -1.66 0.549
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 240 31.04 0.343 82.92% -0.489 0.2033
Memory Fades to Dust 707 26.51 -1.651 64.78% -1.619 0.5998
Power Corrodes the Spirit 606 28.0 -1.306 55.61% -1.731 0.2896
Promising Farmlands 492 28.65 -1.333 57.72% -1.676 0.5382
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 160 31.57 0.362 81.25% -0.56 -0.1486
Thriving Communities 667 28.26 -1.199 59.22% -1.628 0.4649
Unnatural Proliferation 695 29.05 -0.823 56.4% -1.756 0.3332
Untended Land Crumbles 576 27.78 -1.585 55.9% -1.753 0.3527

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1916 58.76% 28.11 -0.61 75.37% 0.101 -1.011
B 1742 55.86% 29.04 -0.29 74.05% 0.006 -1.2017
C 2074 58.74% 29.43 0.029 75.7% 0.174 -1.2649
D 1523 58.72% 29.07 -0.313 73.93% 0.074 -1.1278
E 2248 60.48% 32.04 0.865 70.46% 0.129 -1.1829
F 1464 61.18% 29.42 -0.195 72.13% -0.005 -1.271
G 1377 59.74% 30.12 0.267 77.2% 0.306 -0.9513
H 1306 58.11% 28.33 -0.56 74.04% 0.013 -1.2524
East 153 40.79% 42.49 3.394 75.82% 0.167 -0.8139
Northeast 101 43.56% 38.62 1.89 75.25% -0.081 -1.0124
Northwest 78 52.56% 34.45 0.925 70.51% -0.224 -1.2233
Southeast 68 42.65% 34.71 0.199 64.71% -0.261 -1.2863
Southwest 57 57.89% 28.44 -1.996 63.16% -0.307 -0.9266
West 71 46.48% 37.15 1.47 73.24% -0.068 -0.7929

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 110 0.0% 23.17 -2.875 83.64% -1.541 0.5136
Not Using Events or Tokens 302 62.28% 22.81 -1.901 95.36% 1.137 1.3546
Skip Initial Invader Actions 344 16.4% 43.68 3.409 90.7% 0.184 -0.5095
Start of Game Growth 492 19.87% 42.48 3.611 90.04% 0.817 0.3535
Unlimited Undo 1371 47.89% 33.2 1.151 84.68% 0.469 0.0487
Using Tokens but Not Events 1204 41.64% 24.61 -2.375 83.47% -0.202 -0.2541

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 792 30.99% 35.69 1.748 87.88% 0.569 0.7019
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 319 54.86% 30.76 -0.289 73.35% -0.418 -0.1896
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 237 46.09% 34.92 1.47 83.54% 0.428 0.3422
Eyes Watch From the Trees 387 36.98% 33.65 1.061 86.3% 0.383 0.0102
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 243 47.48% 33.37 0.671 82.72% 0.181 -0.0793
Fractured Days Split the Sky 191 37.7% 42.68 2.997 81.15% -0.049 0.3186
Heart of the Wildfire 202 63.5% 31.33 -0.847 64.36% -0.467 -0.1166
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 547 41.36% 34.62 1.047 83.0% 0.224 -0.0798
Lightning's Swift Strike 343 53.59% 32.14 0.1 76.68% -0.095 0.1641
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 491 49.9% 33.31 -0.09 73.52% -0.367 -0.6399
Many Minds Move as One 236 44.59% 34.79 1.61 81.36% 0.32 -0.1946
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 440 44.42% 35.68 1.483 80.68% 0.16 -0.036
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 242 45.23% 30.34 -0.296 79.34% -0.069 -0.0235
River Surges in Sunlight 468 46.42% 35.58 0.96 78.63% -0.058 0.0939
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 334 34.53% 40.06 2.568 80.84% 0.029 0.1731
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 222 52.25% 29.22 -1.057 79.73% -0.045 0.3956
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 222 40.91% 36.54 1.197 81.08% 0.121 0.0496
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 339 48.95% 30.72 -0.808 75.52% -0.113 -0.1331
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 268 37.97% 35.48 1.894 83.96% 0.511 0.7142
Thunderspeaker 269 41.73% 34.7 0.651 78.81% -0.209 -0.1579
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 220 64.98% 30.43 -0.432 73.64% -0.074 -0.0666
Vital Strength of the Earth 194 45.6% 28.65 -1.446 73.71% -0.541 0.3291
Volcano Looming High 500 60.76% 29.94 -0.98 70.0% -0.43 -0.4536

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.6%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.7%
The Fog Closes In 97.61%
Unnerving Pall 97.94%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1084 22.34 5.35%
II 3249 30.81 37.7%
III 5086 34.31 87.44%
IV 4759 37.5 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 58
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4388
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1179
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4740
Lose: Invader deck ran out 28
Lose: Adversary condition 1155
Win: Sacrifice victory 19
Lose: Scenario condition 92
Win: Scenario condition 95
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2364
Lose: Spirit destroyed 60

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.241 Win Model: -0.265

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.457 Win Model: 0.015
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9210 64.08% 28.36 71.43%
2 3039 50.89% 30.91 77.76%
3 1120 50.09% 33.23 77.32%
4 809 34.35% 38.02 82.94%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)