Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 108 44.34% 27.96 -1.193 78.7% -0.4 0.1658
Dahan Insurrection 4 137 27.01% 49.5 9.02 72.99% -0.863 -0.4625
Despicable Theft 2 164 52.44% 30.61 1.279 77.44% -0.568 -0.2939
Elemental Invocation 1 114 58.77% 27.53 -1.566 67.54% -0.789 -0.2862
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 598 19.39% 43.8 4.841 76.42% -0.468 -0.1027
Powers Long Forgotten 1 37 72.97% 26.46 -1.182 59.46% -0.769 -0.323
Rituals of Terror 3 29 96.55% 23.24 -2.126 31.03% -1.678 -1.0334
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 90.0% 25.2 -1.106 30.0% -0.984 -0.3377
Second Wave 0 335 55.59% 25.5 -1.955 69.55% -0.951 -0.5208
The Great River 3 27 66.67% 27.37 -0.065 48.15% -1.704 -0.2313
Ward the Shores 2 47 65.96% 30.49 0.141 48.94% -1.138 -0.106

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 11410 65.24% 28.0 -0.541 69.67% 0.059 0.1453
1 Thematic 300 60.54% 27.68 -1.067 56.67% -0.68 -0.4026
2 Archipelago 14 35.71% 32.43 2.115 78.57% -0.1 -0.0933
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2889 56.16% 30.44 0.255 72.31% 0.137 0.1625
2 Coastline 308 52.3% 31.69 0.846 77.6% 0.436 0.4114
2 Fragment 76 65.33% 22.43 -3.085 61.84% -0.74 -0.5175
2 Heart 32 50.0% 28.31 -0.622 75.0% -0.059 0.0406
2 Opposite Shores 747 43.9% 28.41 -0.485 80.59% 0.163 0.2285
2 Thematic 155 55.48% 31.21 0.409 79.35% 0.05 -0.0166
2 Top to Top 84 48.19% 30.69 0.515 75.0% 0.231 0.162
3 Archipelago 2 50.0% 20.0 -4.474 50.0% -0.34 0.4644
3 Coastline 8 37.5% 29.0 -0.754 87.5% 0.42 0.2699
3 Other 58 43.86% 31.4 0.652 87.93% 0.59 0.7623
3 Round (Default) 1392 51.26% 32.83 0.707 75.5% 0.184 0.1449
3 Sunrise 6 33.33% 38.5 2.926 100.0% 0.63 0.37
3 Thematic 49 51.02% 36.02 1.02 69.39% -0.404 -0.7697
4 Archipelago 16 75.0% 23.88 -3.345 31.25% -0.691 -0.1431
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 24.71 -5.373 42.86% -1.383 -1.2629
4 Leaf 7 42.86% 35.29 0.374 57.14% -0.477 -0.4048
4 Other 34 52.94% 34.15 0.466 82.35% 0.463 0.3937
4 Thematic 211 22.75% 51.2 5.488 82.94% 0.085 -0.9121
4 Trapezoid (Default) 856 36.43% 32.76 0.039 83.53% 0.206 0.214
5 Archipelago 4 25.0% 24.75 -3.3 50.0% -1.122 0.0374
5 Other 27 36.0% 45.15 6.096 100.0% 1.737 1.2766
5 Thematic 6 33.33% 56.5 8.152 100.0% 0.638 -1.7536

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 814 28.54 -0.947 55.53% -1.669 0.4003
Aid From Lesser Spirits 716 31.13 0.243 61.03% -1.449 0.464
All Things Weaken 893 29.46 -0.371 59.91% -1.515 0.6443
Back Against the Wall 703 29.05 -0.806 54.48% -1.74 0.3469
Disintegrating Ecosystem 729 25.29 -2.759 48.01% -1.999 0.2233
Downward Spiral 922 27.0 -1.332 63.12% -1.499 0.5229
Erosion of Will 746 29.1 -0.677 56.97% -1.599 0.6087
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 304 30.82 0.458 81.91% -0.448 0.2311
Memory Fades to Dust 919 26.56 -1.531 61.92% -1.613 0.6017
Power Corrodes the Spirit 819 27.51 -1.333 54.7% -1.704 0.3175
Promising Farmlands 686 27.44 -1.673 53.79% -1.746 0.4619
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 208 31.13 0.398 82.69% -0.495 -0.0832
Thriving Communities 863 27.7 -1.271 56.32% -1.678 0.4097
Unnatural Proliferation 912 28.61 -0.839 55.15% -1.726 0.3552
Untended Land Crumbles 779 27.19 -1.656 53.27% -1.759 0.3429

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2548 59.49% 27.51 -0.703 72.21% -0.035 -0.7232
B 2293 57.72% 28.57 -0.285 72.22% -0.011 -0.7945
C 2758 60.72% 29.13 0.015 72.66% 0.1 -0.9131
D 2047 60.89% 28.58 -0.32 70.74% 0.001 -0.7767
E 2790 60.87% 31.47 0.875 70.07% 0.134 -0.7604
F 1954 62.13% 29.07 -0.157 69.91% -0.047 -0.8876
G 1826 58.91% 29.82 0.301 75.36% 0.209 -0.6228
H 1761 58.51% 28.34 -0.39 72.63% -0.006 -0.8455
East 200 44.22% 41.44 3.462 76.0% 0.323 -0.2534
Northeast 148 41.89% 37.41 1.896 75.68% 0.084 -0.4404
Northwest 90 50.0% 34.02 1.087 73.33% -0.068 -0.6632
Southeast 89 43.82% 33.49 0.139 66.29% -0.149 -0.7783
Southwest 98 61.22% 28.02 -2.21 50.0% -0.459 -0.6572
West 96 50.0% 35.77 1.404 72.92% -0.041 -0.3684

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 181 0.0% 24.49 -2.436 83.43% -1.768 0.2847
Not Using Events or Tokens 350 59.94% 22.73 -1.968 94.0% 0.912 1.1264
Skip Initial Invader Actions 464 16.79% 41.46 3.332 91.81% 0.382 -0.3045
Start of Game Growth 653 21.38% 40.38 3.35 90.66% 0.805 0.3365
Unlimited Undo 1838 47.76% 32.62 1.253 83.73% 0.482 0.0593
Using Tokens but Not Events 1570 41.57% 24.39 -2.379 83.12% -0.179 -0.2297

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1041 30.97% 34.77 1.661 87.03% 0.53 0.6348
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 438 57.8% 30.2 -0.323 71.46% -0.324 -0.1264
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 343 46.93% 33.74 1.272 83.38% 0.422 0.308
Eyes Watch From the Trees 536 38.26% 33.07 1.107 84.51% 0.388 -0.0162
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 356 45.53% 32.83 0.765 81.74% 0.194 -0.1118
Fractured Days Split the Sky 245 40.33% 40.76 2.845 77.96% -0.073 0.2758
Heart of the Wildfire 278 63.0% 30.26 -0.862 64.39% -0.318 0.0006
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 685 42.65% 34.49 1.338 82.48% 0.329 -0.0139
Lightning's Swift Strike 483 52.99% 31.79 0.295 75.98% -0.06 0.1654
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 667 49.55% 32.83 0.075 72.71% -0.28 -0.5664
Many Minds Move as One 317 44.66% 34.28 1.608 80.13% 0.317 -0.216
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 592 47.22% 34.77 1.47 78.55% 0.197 -0.0275
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 340 46.13% 29.35 -0.456 77.94% -0.082 -0.0675
River Surges in Sunlight 613 47.6% 34.84 1.015 77.49% -0.053 0.0681
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 476 39.37% 37.52 1.933 74.16% -0.121 -0.0179
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 331 53.5% 28.19 -1.255 75.83% -0.17 0.2348
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 290 41.67% 35.44 1.206 81.38% 0.274 0.1619
Shifting Memory of Ages 346 63.77% 28.24 -1.387 58.09% -0.709 -0.5849
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 470 48.04% 30.91 -0.315 76.38% 0.068 0.0085
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 347 39.23% 34.67 1.785 83.29% 0.525 0.6854
Thunderspeaker 361 40.06% 34.15 0.709 78.39% -0.207 -0.1828
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 318 64.65% 29.1 -0.756 72.01% -0.047 -0.0749
Vital Strength of the Earth 266 44.27% 28.75 -1.085 75.19% -0.385 0.4595
Volcano Looming High 644 59.31% 29.26 -0.967 70.34% -0.349 -0.3385

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.45%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.69%
The Fog Closes In 97.57%
Unnerving Pall 97.86%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1594 22.37 4.83%
II 4425 30.88 35.68%
III 6633 34.39 86.63%
IV 6046 37.55 99.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 77
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5666
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1522
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6016
Lose: Invader deck ran out 35
Lose: Adversary condition 1638
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Lose: Scenario condition 132
Win: Scenario condition 123
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3376
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.06 Win Model: -0.274

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.417 Win Model: 0.101
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 11719 65.13% 28.0 69.31%
2 4328 53.66% 30.11 74.47%
3 1498 50.87% 32.8 75.57%
4 1153 34.43% 36.36 82.74%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)