Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 97 46.32% 27.55 -1.399 78.35% -0.429 0.1405
Dahan Insurrection 4 128 26.56% 50.02 9.175 74.22% -0.745 -0.3472
Despicable Theft 2 161 52.8% 30.7 1.293 77.64% -0.543 -0.2731
Elemental Invocation 1 111 57.66% 27.67 -1.514 68.47% -0.745 -0.2804
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 563 19.14% 44.52 4.966 77.26% -0.424 -0.0576
Powers Long Forgotten 1 30 70.0% 25.37 -1.791 56.67% -0.965 -0.5199
Rituals of Terror 3 28 96.43% 23.68 -2.02 32.14% -1.609 -0.9635
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 100.0% 23.44 -2.4 22.22% -1.126 -0.4804
Second Wave 0 306 56.62% 25.64 -1.907 69.93% -0.907 -0.4783
The Great River 3 25 64.0% 27.28 -0.067 48.0% -1.751 -0.287
Ward the Shores 2 44 65.91% 30.93 0.152 50.0% -1.05 -0.0157

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 10783 65.05% 28.16 -0.554 70.3% -0.008 0.1641
1 Thematic 263 59.16% 27.93 -0.947 60.08% -0.746 -0.384
2 Archipelago 10 30.0% 32.7 2.051 80.0% -0.075 0.1517
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2595 54.56% 30.57 0.309 74.99% 0.185 0.2365
2 Coastline 289 51.23% 31.82 0.801 78.2% 0.41 0.4177
2 Fragment 68 64.71% 22.18 -3.263 61.76% -0.831 -0.5744
2 Heart 27 48.15% 30.15 0.023 77.78% 0.12 0.262
2 Opposite Shores 696 43.48% 28.56 -0.47 81.03% 0.156 0.2467
2 Thematic 141 53.19% 30.73 0.196 79.43% 0.028 -0.0139
2 Top to Top 78 44.16% 31.28 0.733 76.92% 0.273 0.2419
3 Archipelago 2 50.0% 20.0 -4.446 50.0% -0.342 0.7394
3 Coastline 8 37.5% 29.0 -0.823 87.5% 0.468 0.2697
3 Other 51 45.1% 33.06 1.224 90.2% 0.797 0.9714
3 Round (Default) 1309 51.53% 32.77 0.607 75.4% 0.229 0.1558
3 Sunrise 5 40.0% 35.2 1.902 100.0% 0.581 0.3043
3 Thematic 48 50.0% 35.6 0.777 68.75% -0.413 -0.8149
4 Archipelago 13 76.92% 21.31 -4.779 15.38% -1.164 -0.6555
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 24.71 -5.484 42.86% -1.276 -1.2261
4 Leaf 7 42.86% 35.29 0.2 57.14% -0.442 -0.4705
4 Other 30 56.67% 33.3 -0.081 80.0% 0.442 0.328
4 Thematic 208 22.6% 51.45 5.422 82.69% 0.178 -0.906
4 Trapezoid (Default) 781 36.56% 33.05 0.083 83.61% 0.345 0.2587
5 Archipelago 4 25.0% 24.75 -3.305 50.0% -1.078 -0.2015
5 Other 20 31.58% 43.9 5.369 100.0% 1.57 0.9661
5 Thematic 6 33.33% 56.5 8.017 100.0% 0.625 -2.1378

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 757 28.74 -0.969 55.75% -1.697 0.376
Aid From Lesser Spirits 656 30.96 0.129 62.65% -1.461 0.4566
All Things Weaken 824 29.44 -0.446 60.56% -1.547 0.6231
Back Against the Wall 650 29.2 -0.786 55.54% -1.757 0.3343
Disintegrating Ecosystem 670 25.5 -2.743 48.96% -2.012 0.2132
Downward Spiral 870 27.18 -1.314 64.25% -1.497 0.526
Erosion of Will 692 29.34 -0.597 58.38% -1.589 0.6205
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 287 30.85 0.384 82.23% -0.474 0.2129
Memory Fades to Dust 864 26.5 -1.589 62.96% -1.628 0.5903
Power Corrodes the Spirit 752 27.81 -1.252 56.52% -1.682 0.3424
Promising Farmlands 630 27.54 -1.682 54.29% -1.775 0.4393
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 194 31.04 0.256 81.44% -0.595 -0.1853
Thriving Communities 805 27.88 -1.233 57.89% -1.651 0.4438
Unnatural Proliferation 848 28.74 -0.845 55.78% -1.737 0.3497
Untended Land Crumbles 723 27.53 -1.542 54.36% -1.748 0.3578

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2386 59.38% 27.53 -0.747 72.97% -0.027 -0.787
B 2146 57.75% 28.67 -0.317 72.18% -0.044 -0.9012
C 2534 59.95% 29.14 0.026 74.66% 0.126 -0.9622
D 1898 59.66% 28.8 -0.298 72.29% 0.008 -0.8424
E 2644 60.81% 31.67 0.876 70.23% 0.11 -0.8549
F 1821 61.87% 29.19 -0.166 70.46% -0.055 -0.9688
G 1709 58.84% 29.9 0.303 76.13% 0.229 -0.6767
H 1645 58.62% 28.53 -0.376 73.31% 0.011 -0.9029
East 193 42.71% 41.44 3.358 76.68% 0.348 -0.3017
Northeast 141 41.84% 37.82 1.873 75.89% 0.047 -0.5515
Northwest 88 50.0% 34.31 1.157 72.73% -0.064 -0.7336
Southeast 84 42.86% 33.9 0.11 66.67% -0.135 -0.8409
Southwest 71 56.34% 28.7 -2.053 59.15% -0.424 -0.6966
West 89 47.19% 35.88 1.281 71.91% -0.101 -0.4996

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 157 0.0% 24.55 -2.431 83.44% -1.699 0.3574
Not Using Events or Tokens 337 61.15% 22.69 -1.984 94.07% 0.919 1.1353
Skip Initial Invader Actions 430 17.51% 42.3 3.416 91.4% 0.318 -0.3689
Start of Game Growth 606 21.14% 41.19 3.472 90.43% 0.789 0.319
Unlimited Undo 1687 48.31% 33.07 1.348 84.47% 0.521 0.1007
Using Tokens but Not Events 1461 41.52% 24.49 -2.366 83.3% -0.188 -0.2406

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 972 30.67% 35.1 1.711 87.24% 0.545 0.6588
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 404 56.68% 30.55 -0.239 72.28% -0.314 -0.1076
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 318 46.2% 33.67 1.136 82.7% 0.318 0.2124
Eyes Watch From the Trees 486 37.92% 33.01 1.021 84.57% 0.347 -0.0455
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 336 46.18% 32.69 0.679 81.25% 0.153 -0.1381
Fractured Days Split the Sky 230 38.86% 40.86 2.681 78.7% -0.079 0.2749
Heart of the Wildfire 264 63.46% 30.45 -0.903 63.64% -0.369 -0.0409
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 657 43.03% 34.6 1.304 82.8% 0.334 0.004
Lightning's Swift Strike 451 53.09% 32.12 0.356 76.27% -0.046 0.1904
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 625 49.51% 32.96 0.027 72.96% -0.297 -0.5843
Many Minds Move as One 299 44.71% 34.34 1.593 80.6% 0.319 -0.2116
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 558 47.07% 34.96 1.425 77.96% 0.142 -0.0723
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 307 45.72% 29.36 -0.504 79.15% -0.05 -0.0263
River Surges in Sunlight 581 47.46% 34.81 0.9 77.45% -0.075 0.0554
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 412 35.77% 38.5 2.329 79.85% 0.05 0.1651
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 306 54.75% 28.22 -1.277 76.14% -0.124 0.2925
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 270 39.55% 35.52 1.074 81.85% 0.217 0.1195
Shifting Memory of Ages 214 56.54% 27.17 -1.742 65.42% -0.627 -0.5364
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 441 47.33% 30.77 -0.469 75.96% -0.001 -0.0494
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 323 38.99% 34.87 1.788 82.97% 0.507 0.6816
Thunderspeaker 336 40.36% 34.21 0.644 77.98% -0.214 -0.1813
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 293 66.09% 29.9 -0.428 72.7% 0.028 0.0104
Vital Strength of the Earth 242 45.38% 28.62 -1.161 74.38% -0.429 0.4247
Volcano Looming High 606 59.97% 29.36 -0.982 70.3% -0.344 -0.3625

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.53%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.65%
The Fog Closes In 97.57%
Unnerving Pall 97.86%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1426 22.35 5.12%
II 4062 30.84 36.51%
III 6237 34.35 86.85%
IV 5724 37.52 99.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 73
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5342
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1428
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5697
Lose: Invader deck ran out 32
Lose: Adversary condition 1465
Win: Sacrifice victory 25
Lose: Scenario condition 121
Win: Scenario condition 117
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3069
Lose: Spirit destroyed 80

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.134 Win Model: -0.268

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.414 Win Model: 0.022
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 11050 64.9% 28.16 70.05%
2 3930 52.23% 30.22 76.46%
3 1406 51.18% 32.73 75.39%
4 1063 34.36% 36.8 82.5%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)