Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 6 50.0% 20.83 -2.825 83.33% 0.035 0.6119
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 57.33 12.406 83.33% 0.482 0.8828
Despicable Theft 2 67 44.78% 28.7 0.758 73.13% -0.714 -0.2848
Elemental Invocation 1 17 64.71% 23.0 -1.981 76.47% -0.12 0.2608
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 77 30.26% 39.74 3.278 64.94% -0.798 -0.4318
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 22.5 -1.464 50.0% -0.383 0.2456
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 26.0 -4.641 0.0% -0.467 0.1825
Second Wave 0 8 37.5% 21.88 -2.746 75.0% -0.686 -0.2695
The Great River 3 2 50.0% 26.5 -3.604 50.0% -0.846 0.6254

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1954 62.74% 26.44 -0.966 75.64% -0.293 0.066
1 Thematic 41 39.02% 29.71 0.338 70.73% -0.712 -0.2083
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 323 51.08% 31.91 1.197 80.5% 0.202 0.398
2 Coastline 43 47.5% 34.26 2.264 88.37% 0.745 0.8872
2 Fragment 7 100.0% 24.29 -2.256 71.43% -0.327 0.0957
2 Heart 2 50.0% 42.0 5.708 100.0% 0.37 0.6625
2 Opposite Shores 72 37.5% 25.49 -1.406 77.78% -0.569 -0.3441
2 Thematic 8 62.5% 34.63 1.986 87.5% 0.452 0.4971
2 Top to Top 12 50.0% 32.17 0.952 66.67% -0.105 0.0294
3 Coastline 1 0.0% 43.0 4.266 100.0% 0.053 0.02
3 Other 8 62.5% 32.0 0.923 87.5% 0.249 0.6649
3 Round (Default) 151 42.38% 32.13 0.542 76.82% -0.072 -0.0333
3 Thematic 1 100.0% 29.0 1.378 100.0% 0.331 -0.0254
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 34.0 -0.464 100.0% 0.015 0.1737
4 Other 5 40.0% 27.8 -0.352 80.0% 0.073 0.1864
4 Thematic 16 12.5% 53.63 5.092 75.0% -0.195 -1.281
4 Trapezoid (Default) 41 24.39% 30.88 -0.851 78.05% -0.385 -0.4019
5 Other 2 0.0% 48.0 3.486 100.0% 0.186 -0.0327

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 124 27.9 -0.502 61.29% -1.477 0.5928
Aid From Lesser Spirits 92 29.35 -0.27 67.39% -1.244 0.6745
All Things Weaken 116 28.36 0.074 69.83% -1.126 1.0292
Back Against the Wall 90 24.43 -2.434 56.67% -1.887 0.2087
Disintegrating Ecosystem 122 24.62 -2.554 51.64% -1.978 0.2457
Downward Spiral 126 24.9 -1.681 69.05% -1.384 0.6328
Erosion of Will 101 27.84 -0.684 59.41% -1.503 0.7068
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 45 29.64 0.507 82.22% -0.341 0.3634
Memory Fades to Dust 136 25.25 -1.696 63.24% -1.687 0.5276
Power Corrodes the Spirit 107 26.03 -1.399 60.75% -1.679 0.3411
Promising Farmlands 102 26.95 -1.272 57.84% -1.536 0.6766
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 25.73 -0.731 80.0% -0.526 -0.0903
Thriving Communities 120 26.49 -0.728 69.17% -1.27 0.8273
Unnatural Proliferation 125 28.08 -0.412 64.0% -1.39 0.6871
Untended Land Crumbles 103 28.03 -0.164 73.79% -0.983 1.1155

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 393 60.61% 26.14 -0.738 78.37% 0.06 -1.0293
B 352 55.39% 26.97 -0.34 77.84% -0.025 -1.2103
C 423 57.14% 29.35 0.74 78.01% 0.254 -1.1604
D 275 61.54% 27.24 -0.414 74.18% -0.1 -1.2773
E 381 58.36% 28.31 0.334 73.23% -0.118 -1.3946
F 244 64.02% 28.23 0.088 72.13% -0.122 -1.3654
G 299 58.45% 27.96 0.049 79.6% 0.192 -1.038
H 255 52.96% 27.02 -0.275 78.82% 0.002 -1.2385
East 23 21.74% 45.7 6.233 86.96% 0.24 -0.7104
Northeast 10 50.0% 38.8 2.622 70.0% 0.061 -0.8285
Northwest 4 25.0% 32.25 0.312 100.0% 0.433 -0.532
Southeast 8 37.5% 35.88 -0.021 62.5% -0.222 -1.223
Southwest 12 33.33% 22.92 -4.043 58.33% -0.494 -1.102
West 9 66.67% 28.0 -1.027 66.67% -0.142 -0.8281

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 30 0.0% 16.27 -4.45 83.33% -1.123 0.9206
Not Using Events or Tokens 61 53.33% 22.2 -1.228 95.08% 1.048 1.2672
Skip Initial Invader Actions 54 10.0% 40.98 3.503 92.59% 0.286 -0.4178
Start of Game Growth 83 13.92% 40.72 3.683 90.36% 0.442 -0.0119
Unlimited Undo 238 46.58% 32.39 1.856 86.55% 0.725 0.3123
Using Tokens but Not Events 244 41.86% 23.43 -1.805 86.89% 0.08 0.0321

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 123 24.39% 32.24 1.269 90.24% 0.338 0.4845
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 42 42.86% 27.26 -1.676 59.52% -1.236 -0.9988
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 28 64.29% 37.32 3.044 85.71% 0.909 0.8239
Eyes Watch From the Trees 49 26.53% 32.37 0.937 85.71% 0.077 -0.2884
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 25 60.0% 30.72 0.337 84.0% 0.209 -0.0356
Fractured Days Split the Sky 16 18.75% 41.0 4.175 93.75% 0.606 0.9513
Heart of the Wildfire 19 52.63% 27.68 -1.631 63.16% -0.834 -0.4832
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 70 38.57% 34.83 1.739 85.71% 0.73 0.4306
Lightning's Swift Strike 40 52.63% 31.13 0.615 80.0% 0.141 0.4099
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 81 50.62% 30.67 -0.749 66.67% -0.761 -1.0801
Many Minds Move as One 26 38.46% 36.08 2.279 84.62% 0.379 -0.1417
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 45 44.44% 39.29 2.911 80.0% 0.163 -0.0319
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 29 37.93% 25.79 -2.272 75.86% -0.508 -0.4588
River Surges in Sunlight 68 47.76% 31.0 0.191 79.41% 0.163 0.3253
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 32 31.25% 40.59 3.346 81.25% 0.204 0.3538
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 27 40.74% 28.0 -0.577 74.07% -0.133 0.317
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 32 40.63% 36.81 1.448 81.25% 0.275 0.2072
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 52 44.23% 31.52 -0.343 75.0% -0.19 -0.209
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 43 34.88% 31.49 0.419 76.74% -0.274 -0.0578
Thunderspeaker 30 36.67% 32.43 -0.097 83.33% 0.07 0.1278
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 20 75.0% 34.35 1.764 70.0% 0.054 0.0737
Vital Strength of the Earth 12 41.67% 28.58 -0.762 75.0% -0.266 0.6049
Volcano Looming High 72 54.17% 31.36 0.037 75.0% -0.131 -0.1933

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 95.07%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.58%
The Fog Closes In 98.08%
Unnerving Pall 97.97%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 178 22.34 6.18%
II 576 30.75 39.76%
III 964 34.26 88.07%
IV 970 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 11
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 844
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 221
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 968
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 178
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 18
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 422
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.169 Win Model: -0.281

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.478 Win Model: 0.008
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1995 62.25% 26.51 75.54%
2 469 49.57% 31.24 80.6%
3 160 43.75% 31.88 77.5%
4 64 20.31% 36.75 78.13%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)