Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 30.0% 23.6 40.0% -1.147 -0.7066 0.0
Blitz 0 204 47.5% 26.33 68.63% -0.815 -0.5587 -0.606
Dahan Insurrection 4 267 31.09% 48.07 70.04% -1.187 -0.8851 0.106
Despicable Theft 2 202 53.47% 31.16 75.74% -0.723 -0.1784 -0.268
Elemental Invocation 1 166 59.64% 26.66 69.88% 0.752 1.3637 -1.532
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 960 19.69% 42.33 76.04% -0.119 0.075 0.903
Powers Long Forgotten 1 78 73.08% 28.82 62.82% 0.219 0.4645 0.13
Rituals of Terror 3 63 83.87% 31.71 46.03% -0.249 -1.0853 -0.246
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 21 90.48% 30.76 33.33% -0.134 0.391 -0.759
Second Wave 0 870 51.51% 26.28 72.99% -0.172 0.4003 0.425
The Great River 3 50 66.0% 25.92 42.0% -0.418 1.2212 -0.824
Varied Terrains 2 23 69.57% 23.91 47.83% -0.602 0.1438 -0.489
Ward the Shores 2 103 65.05% 31.85 58.25% 0.042 1.0969 -0.692

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18520 64.56% 27.13 68.9% -0.244 0.2018 0.065
1 Thematic 511 62.33% 28.54 57.53% 0.302 0.9335 -0.874
2 Archipelago 35 57.14% 28.91 71.43% 0.0 0.0128 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5297 59.45% 29.55 69.42% -0.06 0.2844 -0.198
2 Coastline 578 49.3% 31.4 78.72% -0.005 0.0782 0.876
2 Fragment 159 60.76% 24.29 66.67% 0.487 0.5755 -0.696
2 Heart 80 58.75% 30.06 75.0% -0.609 0.0024 0.791
2 Opposite Shores 1170 46.68% 28.66 78.97% 0.698 1.0765 -0.493
2 Thematic 286 58.66% 31.51 73.43% -0.031 0.486 -0.117
2 Top to Top 153 52.63% 30.48 75.82% -0.791 -0.652 0.182
3 Archipelago 14 85.71% 34.64 64.29% 0.0 -0.9775 0.463
3 Coastline 26 60.0% 27.31 73.08% 0.448 -0.2006 0.579
3 Other 110 49.07% 29.44 84.55% 0.932 -0.1388 1.034
3 Round (Default) 2640 52.26% 31.63 74.7% 0.045 0.2375 -0.053
3 Sunrise 16 50.0% 31.56 81.25% -0.467 -0.1469 0.0
3 Thematic 98 59.18% 33.34 66.33% -0.324 -0.5699 -0.783
4 Archipelago 33 69.7% 28.88 60.61% 0.0 -0.4019 0.0
4 Coastline 12 50.0% 25.67 58.33% 0.208 0.4061 -0.495
4 Leaf 10 50.0% 31.8 70.0% 0.022 0.5126 0.0
4 Other 64 46.88% 31.61 82.81% 0.203 -0.338 -0.116
4 Thematic 304 26.32% 45.93 78.29% -0.571 -0.565 -0.233
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1524 37.14% 32.35 83.53% 0.269 0.1278 -0.101
5 Archipelago 7 42.86% 31.86 57.14% 0.0 -0.3169 -0.383
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.2575 0.0
5 Other 116 36.79% 37.2 85.34% -0.949 -1.1245 1.063
5 Thematic 18 38.89% 36.89 77.78% -0.418 -0.4523 -0.247
6 Archipelago 10 10.0% 34.3 100.0% 0.0 -0.7508 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.7077 0.0
6 Other 53 28.85% 28.42 84.91% 0.205 0.9017 -0.018
6 Star 25 24.0% 29.44 76.0% 0.29 0.822 -0.206
6 Thematic 92 41.76% 34.71 66.3% 0.067 0.566 -0.718
6 Two Centers (Default) 152 30.46% 32.22 88.82% 0.179 0.4048 0.458
7 Other 6 60.0% 43.0 83.33% 0.167 -0.6047 0.191

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1363 28.16 54.37% -1.108 0.8019 0.066
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1213 30.23 57.96% -1.548 0.1366 0.189
All Things Weaken 1519 28.08 57.27% -1.501 0.4983 0.238
Back Against the Wall 1181 28.84 53.43% -1.051 0.8973 0.009
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1242 24.81 49.03% -1.643 0.4225 -0.408
Downward Spiral 1556 26.7 61.7% -1.18 0.7825 0.031
Erosion of Will 1304 27.16 52.68% -2.088 0.0189 -0.161
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 505 30.76 81.58% -0.35 0.2663 0.07
Memory Fades to Dust 1546 26.1 59.31% -1.338 0.7196 -0.101
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1456 26.68 55.43% -1.31 0.6691 -0.31
Promising Farmlands 1259 26.82 53.3% -1.295 0.8074 -0.252
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 348 30.64 83.33% -0.428 -0.0981 0.638
Thriving Communities 1462 26.18 53.56% -1.445 0.6047 -0.005
Unnatural Proliferation 1536 28.21 55.6% -1.253 0.6911 -0.064
Untended Land Crumbles 1389 26.09 53.35% -1.573 0.4538 -0.341

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6939 55.82% 28.7 73.48% 0.083 0.8422 0.082
B 6662 54.49% 29.14 73.49% 0.179 0.8555 0.195
C 7609 55.65% 29.43 73.08% 0.034 0.5591 0.062
D 6271 55.23% 29.12 73.47% -0.053 0.6733 0.017
E 6926 56.37% 30.34 72.31% -0.061 0.4991 0.122
F 5828 56.63% 29.8 72.91% 0.107 0.7967 0.261
G 5231 54.9% 29.41 73.73% 0.15 0.8456 0.197
H 5205 54.87% 29.58 73.87% -0.006 0.6549 0.118
East 1008 47.46% 36.45 70.54% -0.165 0.5141 0.599
Northeast 575 42.13% 37.83 72.87% -0.093 0.4771 -0.763
Northwest 478 43.04% 38.24 71.13% -0.464 0.3781 -1.037
Southeast 399 43.47% 35.96 70.68% -0.036 0.4904 -1.022
Southwest 362 46.11% 33.68 65.47% 0.401 1.342 -0.73
West 873 46.54% 36.23 69.3% -0.618 0.3817 -0.018

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 334 0.0% 26.92 82.34% -1.468 0.6513 0.678
Not Using Events or Tokens 458 59.76% 22.04 90.83% -0.407 -0.1663 0.153
Skip Initial Invader Actions 802 18.4% 39.24 90.65% 0.424 0.0555 0.404
Start of Game Growth 1113 22.16% 39.0 90.48% 0.525 -0.098 0.552
Unlimited Undo 3043 47.34% 31.74 82.62% 0.329 -0.3015 1.021
Using Tokens but Not Events 2928 40.2% 24.0 83.13% -0.083 -0.0393 0.044

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1833 100.0% 33.58 100.0% -0.575 -0.6226 0.731
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 804 100.0% 29.79 100.0% -0.487 -0.4235 -0.101
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 656 100.0% 31.36 100.0% 0.558 0.3195 0.183
Downpour Drenches the World 164 100.0% 32.21 100.0% -0.558 -0.1668 0.231
Eyes Watch From the Trees 986 100.0% 31.87 100.0% 0.451 0.0362 0.384
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 676 100.0% 33.02 100.0% 0.945 0.3505 0.023
Finder of Paths Unseen 74 100.0% 32.47 100.0% 0.446 0.8504 0.251
Fractured Days Split the Sky 442 100.0% 37.73 100.0% 1.215 1.2573 0.144
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 509 100.0% 30.16 100.0% -0.247 -0.264 -0.258
Heart of the Wildfire 559 100.0% 29.9 100.0% -1.007 -0.6782 -0.104
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1127 100.0% 34.09 100.0% 0.143 -0.491 0.386
Lightning's Swift Strike 343 178.06% 29.65 136.44% 0.295 0.5685 -0.392
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 26 53.85% 33.77 92.31% 1.102 0.269 -0.026
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 240 52.14% 33.3 82.08% 0.254 -0.3178 0.105
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 287 47.37% 30.54 72.13% 0.964 0.5395 -0.204
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1167 100.0% 31.39 100.0% 0.04 -0.1665 0.043
Many Minds Move as One 650 100.0% 32.78 100.0% -0.402 -0.9142 0.904
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1103 100.0% 34.11 100.0% 0.384 0.1012 0.331
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 692 100.0% 29.99 100.0% -0.607 -0.5748 -0.679
River Surges in Sunlight 645 137.02% 34.41 120.93% 0.529 0.5347 -0.159
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 392 46.11% 31.4 70.41% -0.764 -0.3192 -0.566
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 63 47.62% 38.89 69.84% -0.23 -0.4731 -0.033
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 908 100.0% 34.32 100.0% -0.693 -0.8368 0.058
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 159 263.98% 25.49 177.36% -0.403 0.0992 -0.57
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 17 52.94% 26.35 64.71% -0.875 -0.7359 -0.407
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 28 67.86% 36.14 85.71% 0.308 0.2308 0.736
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 268 50.0% 29.57 79.1% 0.34 0.3382 0.141
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 225 49.33% 26.11 74.67% 0.034 0.103 0.175
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 602 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.021 -0.2831 -0.192
Shifting Memory of Ages 1008 100.0% 28.86 100.0% 0.333 0.3552 -1.077
Starlight Seeks its Form 416 100.0% 31.25 100.0% 0.17 -0.0417 -0.231
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 903 100.0% 30.33 100.0% -0.033 -0.2025 -0.197
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 652 100.0% 33.9 100.0% -0.274 -0.1631 0.377
Thunderspeaker 657 100.0% 33.28 100.0% 0.199 0.104 0.735
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 623 100.0% 28.37 100.0% -0.132 -0.2295 0.376
Vital Strength of the Earth 335 134.03% 26.37 119.7% -0.663 0.2199 -0.267
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 33 42.42% 28.85 69.7% -0.571 -0.1705 0.196
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 185 48.65% 27.49 69.73% -0.097 0.9449 -0.711
Volcano Looming High 1020 100.0% 29.04 100.0% 0.011 -0.0044 -0.158

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dissolving Vapors 94.24%
Flowing and Silent Forms Dart By 93.14%
The Fog Closes In 97.47%
Unnerving Pall 97.58%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2895 22.62 4.63%
II 7682 31.05 35.43%
III 11313 34.62 86.01%
IV 10235 37.86 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 134
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9584
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2603
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10180
Lose: Invader deck ran out 64
Lose: Adversary condition 2864
Win: Sacrifice victory 48
Lose: Scenario condition 216
Win: Scenario condition 246
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6053
Lose: Spirit destroyed 133

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.92 Win Model: -0.272

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.266 Win Model: 0.137
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 19076 64.53% 27.19 68.55%
2 7788 56.66% 29.57 71.91%
3 2853 52.31% 31.52 75.01%
4 1979 35.99% 34.52 82.31%
5 99 39.56% 33.23 78.79%
6 330 31.6% 32.31 82.42%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)