Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 41.67% 25.75 100.0% 0.322 0.7625 0.0
Blitz 0 266 32.2% 36.82 83.08% -0.024 0.2324 -0.434
Dahan Insurrection 4 349 73.07% 56.88 29.23% -1.362 -1.0601 -1.001
Despicable Theft 2 78 61.54% 32.9 57.69% -0.864 -0.3191 -1.011
Elemental Invocation 1 128 56.25% 29.05 64.84% -0.415 0.1968 -1.173
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1164 17.04% 42.69 74.14% -0.925 -0.7313 0.067
Powers Long Forgotten 1 59 83.05% 28.97 50.85% 0.114 0.3593 -1.271
Rituals of Terror 3 65 67.69% 45.28 49.23% -1.04 -1.8761 -0.689
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 54 85.19% 33.39 61.11% -0.504 0.0213 0.815
Second Wave 0 737 39.94% 26.62 78.83% -0.873 -0.3002 0.157
The Great River 3 50 38.0% 30.78 42.0% 0.0 1.6389 -0.993
Varied Terrains 2 29 75.86% 25.93 34.48% -1.217 -0.4719 -1.123
Ward the Shores 2 83 57.83% 30.72 46.99% -1.559 -0.5042 -1.026

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 11826 59.97% 27.72 68.47% -0.662 -0.2166 -0.687
1 Thematic 363 64.46% 25.31 61.98% -0.345 0.287 -0.21
2 Archipelago 99 61.62% 36.9 75.76% 0.786 0.7989 -0.617
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4972 56.89% 33.83 71.16% -0.556 -0.2118 -0.694
2 Coastline 792 47.02% 33.42 76.26% -0.177 -0.094 -0.487
2 Fragment 134 63.08% 32.65 70.15% 0.13 0.2185 0.175
2 Heart 108 55.66% 30.62 75.93% -0.441 0.1702 0.305
2 Opposite Shores 1274 50.39% 32.36 69.15% -0.543 -0.165 -1.493
2 Thematic 356 64.51% 32.45 50.56% -0.288 0.2289 -0.567
2 Top to Top 220 50.91% 34.05 75.45% -0.024 0.1148 -0.938
3 Archipelago 56 53.57% 32.8 60.71% 0.0 -0.9775 -1.263
3 Coastline 52 33.33% 27.27 86.54% 0.602 -0.0466 -0.644
3 Other 261 45.17% 36.94 83.14% 1.014 -0.0569 0.46
3 Round (Default) 2720 48.78% 35.11 74.38% -0.87 -0.6774 -1.187
3 Sunrise 14 28.57% 30.5 85.71% 0.078 0.3975 0.041
3 Thematic 88 50.0% 33.78 70.45% 0.601 0.355 0.247
4 Archipelago 50 58.0% 35.02 64.0% 0.086 -0.3158 -0.321
4 Coastline 16 12.5% 30.81 93.75% 0.162 0.3602 0.202
4 Leaf 14 35.71% 31.57 57.14% -0.743 -0.2525 -0.532
4 Other 123 51.22% 38.19 83.74% -0.427 -0.9683 -0.003
4 Thematic 236 40.25% 47.29 74.15% -0.418 -0.4123 -1.154
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1369 37.87% 36.73 78.67% -0.619 -0.7598 -1.507
5 Archipelago 18 55.56% 46.72 94.44% 0.0 -0.3169 -0.275
5 Coastline 10 0.0% 26.8 90.0% 0.197 -0.0607 0.094
5 Other 214 32.71% 40.33 81.78% -0.856 -1.0316 -0.901
5 Thematic 47 48.94% 51.96 70.21% -0.233 -0.2678 -0.582
6 Archipelago 16 50.0% 41.69 87.5% 0.022 -0.7292 -1.223
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7077 0.0
6 Other 106 36.79% 31.99 72.64% -1.535 -0.8381 -2.291
6 Star 49 34.69% 38.82 85.71% 0.159 0.6913 -0.715
6 Thematic 173 19.65% 43.42 83.82% -0.579 -0.0804 -0.678
6 Two Centers (Default) 327 28.75% 51.4 85.32% -0.907 -0.6815 -1.827
7 Archipelago 4 50.0% 87.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.136
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 4 75.0% 31.25 50.0% 0.0 -0.7711 -1.078

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1001 30.91 58.64% -1.235 0.674 -0.35
Aid From Lesser Spirits 889 33.54 59.06% -0.729 0.9555 -0.245
All Things Weaken 1068 30.2 50.47% -1.326 0.6735 -0.184
Back Against the Wall 870 32.23 54.83% -1.415 0.5325 -0.238
Disintegrating Ecosystem 965 28.48 51.19% -1.44 0.6253 -0.686
Downward Spiral 1187 28.8 55.1% -1.473 0.4902 -0.478
Erosion of Will 986 29.74 53.75% -1.472 0.6354 -0.326
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 424 34.53 80.19% 0.611 1.2275 0.583
Memory Fades to Dust 1190 29.99 55.46% -1.397 0.6607 -0.392
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1092 29.62 56.32% -1.523 0.4553 -0.34
Promising Farmlands 918 30.03 52.18% -1.597 0.5055 -0.431
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 275 35.81 83.27% 0.477 0.8062 0.669
Thriving Communities 1101 29.22 52.77% -1.642 0.4071 -0.223
Unnatural Proliferation 1135 31.01 52.69% -1.537 0.4071 -0.363
Untended Land Crumbles 1111 29.39 54.64% -1.537 0.4895 -0.679

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6357 52.51% 33.09 71.34% 0.125 0.8847 0.34
B 6579 50.45% 33.51 74.66% 0.33 1.0061 0.455
C 6848 50.65% 32.99 73.53% 0.169 0.694 0.283
D 5708 51.51% 33.31 73.7% 0.267 0.9932 0.116
E 5901 50.58% 33.37 72.21% 0.246 0.8061 0.266
F 5382 50.34% 33.47 72.28% 0.08 0.7693 0.219
G 4850 49.69% 33.33 74.66% 0.142 0.8373 0.216
H 4918 51.22% 34.33 72.31% 0.3 0.9606 0.351
East 976 48.0% 38.41 66.7% -0.169 0.5105 -0.623
Northeast 628 41.88% 40.59 69.27% -0.542 0.0283 -0.793
Northwest 544 42.46% 39.73 68.75% -0.489 0.3527 -0.21
Southeast 476 42.74% 39.3 67.86% -0.56 -0.0332 -0.55
Southwest 442 46.49% 37.51 65.61% 0.876 1.8174 -0.01
West 935 53.0% 37.0 63.53% -0.208 0.7925 -0.097

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 155 0.0% 18.25 73.55% -1.345 0.7738 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 280 33.33% 22.95 86.07% 0.439 0.6799 -1.062
Skip Initial Invader Actions 597 18.97% 48.93 89.28% 0.848 0.4794 0.045
Start of Game Growth 851 23.52% 45.47 87.9% 0.067 -0.5556 1.278
Unlimited Undo 2367 43.15% 36.61 81.54% 0.213 -0.4178 0.95
Using Tokens but Not Events 2283 38.95% 26.61 78.14% -0.265 -0.221 -0.494

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1769 100.0% 38.74 100.0% 0.129 0.0812 -0.096
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 292 100.0% 31.33 100.0% -0.128 -0.0636 -0.006
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 513 100.0% 30.63 100.0% -0.159 -0.3972 0.086
Downpour Drenches the World 221 100.0% 37.27 100.0% -0.948 -0.5566 -0.706
Eyes Watch From the Trees 628 100.0% 33.85 100.0% -0.225 -0.6404 -0.235
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 601 100.0% 32.81 100.0% -0.15 -0.7443 -0.024
Finder of Paths Unseen 107 100.0% 39.67 100.0% -0.29 0.1149 0.245
Fractured Days Split the Sky 869 100.0% 51.22 100.0% 0.616 0.6583 0.092
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 841 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.129 -0.1459 0.1
Heart of the Wildfire 437 100.0% 29.42 100.0% -0.975 -0.6462 0.315
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1566 100.0% 36.45 100.0% 0.031 -0.6034 0.185
Lightning's Swift Strike 392 208.08% 30.3 135.97% 0.003 0.276 -0.168
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 171 49.12% 46.36 80.7% 1.13 0.2978 0.9
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 253 42.06% 35.99 81.42% 0.921 0.3487 0.441
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 344 42.82% 38.76 82.27% 0.051 -0.3737 0.615
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1182 100.0% 35.22 100.0% 0.134 -0.0727 0.007
Many Minds Move as One 480 100.0% 33.17 100.0% 0.528 0.0154 -0.613
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 861 100.0% 36.92 100.0% 0.418 0.1354 0.32
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 551 100.0% 31.02 100.0% -0.307 -0.2748 0.283
River Surges in Sunlight 589 143.82% 35.94 118.0% 0.703 0.709 0.373
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 365 38.84% 40.43 75.34% 0.54 0.9843 0.086
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 64 42.19% 40.19 75.0% 0.063 -0.1804 0.152
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2856 100.0% 45.53 100.0% 0.168 0.0246 0.758
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 104 257.94% 27.43 189.42% -0.949 -0.4473 -0.531
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 24 58.33% 34.5 62.5% -0.082 0.057 -0.424
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 32 31.25% 30.13 87.5% 0.606 0.529 0.088
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 139 45.59% 29.81 74.1% 0.536 0.5339 -0.157
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 160 60.62% 30.84 72.5% 0.032 0.1014 -0.002
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 643 100.0% 35.8 100.0% 0.104 -0.1578 0.458
Shroud of Silent Mist 1008 100.0% 28.86 100.0% 0.006 0.2507 -1.305
Starlight Seeks its Form 1022 100.0% 40.52 100.0% 0.0 -0.2113 0.302
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 916 100.0% 32.28 100.0% 0.241 0.0717 0.056
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 552 100.0% 34.05 100.0% -0.723 -0.6125 0.439
Thunderspeaker 658 100.0% 35.36 100.0% 0.156 0.0605 0.115
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 447 100.0% 30.17 100.0% -0.019 -0.1167 -0.18
Vital Strength of the Earth 389 144.73% 33.48 128.79% -0.81 0.072 -0.359
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 160 40.0% 46.31 63.75% -0.812 -0.4113 -0.344
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 163 52.15% 32.09 66.87% 0.118 1.1604 -0.543
Volcano Looming High 820 100.0% 31.28 100.0% -0.294 -0.3094 -0.462

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Ancient Memories 84.98%
Elemental Teachings 95.91%
Share Secrets of Survival 95.05%
Study the Invaders' Fears 84.58%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3736 22.62 7.63%
II 7706 31.05 59.17%
III 9865 34.62 90.24%
IV 4854 37.86 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 272
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8651
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4323
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4749
Lose: Invader deck ran out 227
Lose: Adversary condition 2538
Win: Sacrifice victory 455
Lose: Scenario condition 258
Win: Scenario condition 141
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4357
Lose: Spirit destroyed 190

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.403 Win Model: -0.217

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.672 Win Model: 0.298
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 12787 60.68% 28.26 67.63%
2 7678 54.01% 33.27 72.23%
3 3062 48.28% 34.85 74.66%
4 1803 37.79% 38.7 78.7%
5 177 24.29% 32.72 84.18%
6 654 29.2% 45.59 83.03%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)