Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 42.86% 23.86 100.0% 0.434 0.2324 0.0
Blitz 0 226 33.19% 36.72 83.63% -0.195 0.0625 -0.134
Dahan Insurrection 4 332 74.4% 56.73 29.22% -0.805 -0.392 -0.881
Despicable Theft 2 68 61.76% 33.53 60.29% -0.402 0.0439 -0.796
Elemental Invocation 1 114 56.14% 28.61 64.91% -0.939 -0.4535 -1.121
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1077 16.93% 43.23 74.65% -0.823 -0.5178 0.095
Powers Long Forgotten 1 55 81.82% 28.51 49.09% 0.796 0.9779 -1.259
Rituals of Terror 3 58 65.52% 46.64 50.0% -0.852 -0.7307 -0.39
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 48 85.42% 33.5 62.5% -0.655 -0.2401 0.54
Second Wave 0 637 40.19% 26.47 78.96% -0.627 -0.0615 0.351
The Great River 3 50 38.0% 30.78 42.0% -1.386 0.0122 -0.946
Varied Terrains 2 15 60.0% 27.4 40.0% -1.315 -0.7895 -0.381
Ward the Shores 2 73 56.16% 31.82 47.95% -0.897 0.265 -1.021

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 10974 60.16% 27.86 68.34% -0.538 0.4784 -0.568
1 Thematic 337 65.28% 24.97 61.42% -0.281 0.8916 -0.151
2 Archipelago 96 61.46% 36.01 75.0% 0.084 1.0678 -1.056
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4550 57.34% 33.71 70.53% -0.55 0.2011 -0.619
2 Coastline 707 47.73% 33.54 76.24% -0.449 0.1535 -0.551
2 Fragment 122 64.41% 32.55 68.03% -0.228 0.2192 0.178
2 Heart 94 55.43% 32.06 74.47% 0.394 0.932 0.627
2 Opposite Shores 1210 50.33% 32.43 68.76% -0.539 0.4534 -1.508
2 Thematic 332 64.95% 32.08 48.8% -0.874 -0.1751 -0.7
2 Top to Top 203 50.25% 34.28 74.88% -0.488 0.0225 -0.95
3 Archipelago 56 53.57% 32.8 60.71% 0.123 0.2965 -1.226
3 Coastline 47 34.04% 27.64 85.11% 0.519 -0.2634 -0.391
3 Other 254 44.84% 37.1 83.07% -0.186 -0.2221 0.479
3 Round (Default) 2478 48.97% 35.1 74.46% -0.871 -0.2761 -1.062
3 Sunrise 14 28.57% 30.5 85.71% 0.086 0.1231 0.052
3 Thematic 82 51.22% 33.02 68.29% -0.285 -0.3223 0.213
4 Archipelago 48 60.42% 35.54 62.5% 0.01 -0.7012 -0.294
4 Coastline 12 8.33% 33.08 91.67% -0.117 -0.0006 0.188
4 Leaf 13 30.77% 32.46 61.54% 0.066 0.6285 -0.493
4 Other 120 52.5% 38.51 83.33% -0.49 -0.7438 0.118
4 Thematic 217 39.63% 47.72 74.19% 0.186 0.715 -1.194
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1260 37.06% 36.17 78.65% -1.016 -1.0427 -1.425
5 Archipelago 18 55.56% 46.72 94.44% 0.024 -0.5546 -0.242
5 Coastline 9 0.0% 27.11 88.89% 0.017 -0.5472 0.0
5 Other 183 31.15% 39.51 86.34% -0.895 -0.727 -0.788
5 Thematic 45 48.89% 52.36 71.11% -0.2 -0.4768 -0.543
6 Archipelago 15 53.33% 42.2 86.67% 0.0 -0.2557 -1.136
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.037 -0.5525 0.0
6 Other 77 41.56% 31.56 71.43% -1.942 -1.1325 -2.008
6 Star 41 36.59% 38.98 85.37% -0.979 -0.1958 -0.688
6 Thematic 149 20.13% 43.56 84.56% -1.056 -1.3342 -0.649
6 Two Centers (Default) 284 27.82% 52.26 85.92% -0.059 -0.1531 -1.434
7 Archipelago 4 50.0% 87.5 100.0% 0.018 -0.5592 0.157
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 2 50.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.092 -1.0603 -1.048

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 930 30.93 58.49% -0.96 0.9429 -0.312
Aid From Lesser Spirits 816 33.25 57.6% -1.474 0.2557 -0.302
All Things Weaken 989 29.99 49.75% -1.502 0.4836 -0.312
Back Against the Wall 818 32.29 54.52% -1.309 0.5076 -0.197
Disintegrating Ecosystem 894 28.49 50.67% -1.687 0.3637 -0.665
Downward Spiral 1102 29.09 55.08% -1.471 0.5221 -0.412
Erosion of Will 900 29.72 53.0% -1.291 0.7924 -0.316
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 393 34.59 79.39% -0.102 0.3387 0.568
Memory Fades to Dust 1092 30.3 54.95% -1.343 0.7416 -0.405
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1023 29.67 56.3% -1.385 0.5532 -0.331
Promising Farmlands 846 30.07 51.89% -1.406 0.6402 -0.38
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 244 34.92 83.2% -0.466 -0.0415 0.417
Thriving Communities 1022 29.08 52.84% -1.664 0.3197 -0.163
Unnatural Proliferation 1050 31.09 52.19% -1.654 0.3104 -0.352
Untended Land Crumbles 1027 29.52 54.63% -1.498 0.4951 -0.693

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5845 52.66% 33.12 71.27% 0.273 1.0702 0.391
B 5992 50.86% 33.44 74.55% 0.466 1.2098 0.498
C 6296 50.81% 32.97 73.44% 0.271 0.8393 0.276
D 5272 51.82% 33.26 73.44% 0.138 0.9332 0.143
E 5416 50.98% 33.34 72.01% 0.28 0.9272 0.283
F 4913 50.4% 33.46 72.3% 0.34 1.0642 0.259
G 4457 49.84% 33.22 74.58% 0.164 0.8951 0.242
H 4476 51.4% 34.21 71.98% 0.297 1.0095 0.347
East 893 48.99% 38.34 65.73% -0.561 0.2078 -0.617
Northeast 572 42.66% 40.65 68.71% -0.341 0.5193 -0.743
Northwest 489 42.94% 39.72 68.3% -0.374 0.7031 -0.183
Southeast 429 44.16% 39.12 66.43% 0.013 0.7192 -0.437
Southwest 398 48.11% 37.28 63.82% -0.271 0.8546 -0.267
West 853 53.76% 36.76 62.37% -0.631 0.3225 -0.197

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 145 0.0% 18.07 73.1% 0.216 2.345 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 260 33.62% 23.16 85.77% -0.064 0.1113 -1.026
Skip Initial Invader Actions 549 19.72% 49.59 88.89% 0.523 0.3811 -0.122
Start of Game Growth 781 23.67% 46.2 87.71% -0.089 -0.8498 1.321
Unlimited Undo 2201 43.44% 36.79 81.46% 0.621 0.0175 0.983
Using Tokens but Not Events 2115 38.44% 26.39 78.87% -0.519 -0.6758 -0.196

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1629 100.0% 38.32 100.0% 0.458 0.343 -0.185
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 264 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.417 -0.3207 0.006
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 459 100.0% 30.59 100.0% -0.054 -0.2153 0.121
Downpour Drenches the World 122 100.0% 37.45 100.0% -0.101 0.1516 -0.365
Eyes Watch From the Trees 575 100.0% 33.88 100.0% 0.048 -0.3893 -0.34
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 553 100.0% 32.89 100.0% 0.101 -0.3865 0.064
Finder of Paths Unseen 61 100.0% 40.07 100.0% 0.383 0.7465 0.379
Fractured Days Split the Sky 776 100.0% 51.02 100.0% 0.193 0.2489 0.048
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 772 100.0% 33.39 100.0% -0.432 -0.4635 0.044
Heart of the Wildfire 412 100.0% 29.37 100.0% -0.089 0.0854 0.378
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1437 100.0% 36.33 100.0% 0.446 -0.0105 0.176
Lightning's Swift Strike 357 205.54% 30.55 134.17% -0.481 -0.2066 -0.217
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 119 46.22% 45.26 79.83% 0.776 -0.0011 0.856
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 232 41.13% 35.73 81.03% 0.143 -0.4996 0.403
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 319 42.72% 38.7 83.07% 0.746 0.4795 0.725
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1105 100.0% 35.1 100.0% -0.279 -0.546 0.012
Many Minds Move as One 446 100.0% 32.79 100.0% 0.748 0.1451 -0.553
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 780 100.0% 37.36 100.0% 0.52 0.3353 0.304
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 515 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.552 -0.5308 0.477
River Surges in Sunlight 560 140.93% 35.96 117.5% -0.898 -0.9323 0.285
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 336 38.32% 40.77 74.4% 0.11 0.5415 0.058
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 41 41.46% 37.51 70.73% -0.658 -0.9586 0.077
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2592 100.0% 45.6 100.0% 0.348 0.2955 0.793
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 98 251.49% 27.57 187.76% 0.249 0.6593 -0.351
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 17 64.71% 35.0 64.71% 0.367 0.3741 -0.33
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 24 29.17% 28.29 87.5% 0.063 -0.2839 0.036
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 131 44.53% 30.18 72.52% -0.85 -0.831 -0.181
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 146 59.59% 30.49 71.92% -0.269 -0.0865 -0.085
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 592 100.0% 35.88 100.0% 0.622 0.3351 0.385
Shroud of Silent Mist 956 100.0% 28.86 100.0% 0.074 0.3102 -1.309
Starlight Seeks its Form 902 100.0% 40.44 100.0% -0.132 -0.271 0.134
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 833 100.0% 32.05 100.0% -0.11 -0.2919 -0.011
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 492 100.0% 34.19 100.0% 0.223 0.4079 0.343
Thunderspeaker 580 100.0% 35.92 100.0% 0.165 0.2291 0.247
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 405 100.0% 29.45 100.0% -0.228 -0.3189 -0.55
Vital Strength of the Earth 368 135.33% 34.09 120.65% -0.496 0.3125 -0.309
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 85 34.12% 46.93 71.76% 0.01 0.3972 -0.196
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 156 52.56% 31.69 66.67% -0.026 1.1481 -0.644
Volcano Looming High 748 100.0% 31.05 100.0% -0.504 -0.5088 -0.445

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Ancient Memories 84.93%
Elemental Teachings 95.94%
Share Secrets of Survival 95.1%
Study the Invaders' Fears 84.73%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3455 22.56 7.73%
II 7165 30.98 58.91%
III 9047 34.53 90.12%
IV 4418 37.77 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 255
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7925
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3998
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4322
Lose: Invader deck ran out 211
Lose: Adversary condition 2333
Win: Sacrifice victory 418
Lose: Scenario condition 236
Win: Scenario condition 132
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4080
Lose: Spirit destroyed 175

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.328 Win Model: -0.202

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.65 Win Model: 0.282
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 11854 60.92% 28.43 67.36%
2 7071 54.3% 33.15 71.74%
3 2799 48.42% 34.81 74.63%
4 1668 37.17% 38.45 79.02%
5 143 23.08% 30.92 86.01%
6 550 29.09% 46.38 84.0%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)