Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 43.75% 25.19 93.75% 0.127 0.6225 -0.315
Blitz 0 299 29.97% 37.45 83.95% 0.384 0.8274 -0.369
Dahan Insurrection 4 387 70.8% 55.84 30.23% -1.346 -1.249 -0.933
Despicable Theft 2 82 59.76% 33.09 59.76% -0.469 0.0295 -1.023
Elemental Invocation 1 150 58.67% 29.01 61.33% -0.885 -0.3395 -1.312
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1239 17.14% 42.36 73.12% -0.657 -0.425 0.027
Powers Long Forgotten 1 63 80.95% 28.65 52.38% 0.196 0.6035 -1.23
Rituals of Terror 3 70 67.14% 45.86 51.43% 0.207 -0.0288 -0.611
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 56 85.71% 33.43 62.5% 0.244 0.4705 0.853
Second Wave 0 805 39.92% 26.56 78.51% -0.865 -0.1724 0.158
The Great River 3 57 40.35% 30.67 43.86% -0.701 0.8803 -1.003
Varied Terrains 2 45 75.56% 26.84 42.22% -0.888 -0.1019 -1.186
Ward the Shores 2 92 57.61% 30.82 48.91% -0.899 -0.0179 -1.008

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 12521 59.98% 27.62 68.28% -0.432 0.2309 -0.699
1 Thematic 414 62.32% 25.79 59.66% -0.628 0.4287 -0.373
2 Archipelago 99 61.62% 36.9 75.76% 0.0 0.4709 -0.647
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5287 56.73% 33.89 71.36% -0.268 0.2503 -0.767
2 Coastline 854 47.18% 33.13 75.29% -0.374 -0.1734 -0.664
2 Fragment 144 60.0% 32.16 71.53% 0.591 0.8895 0.178
2 Heart 117 58.26% 30.52 72.65% -0.519 -0.058 0.024
2 Opposite Shores 1353 50.82% 32.4 68.88% -0.388 0.1507 -1.575
2 Thematic 369 63.59% 33.0 51.76% 0.013 0.7956 -0.624
2 Top to Top 237 51.05% 34.0 75.11% -0.04 0.0875 -0.898
3 Archipelago 57 54.39% 32.39 59.65% -0.681 -0.899 -1.266
3 Coastline 56 30.91% 27.16 87.5% 0.078 -0.4292 -0.74
3 Other 274 44.85% 36.37 83.21% 0.562 -0.1017 0.334
3 Round (Default) 2907 48.88% 35.52 74.75% -0.392 -0.0871 -1.189
3 Sunrise 14 28.57% 30.5 85.71% 0.0 0.46 -0.015
3 Thematic 94 51.06% 33.62 69.15% -0.182 0.026 0.07
4 Archipelago 52 55.77% 34.94 65.38% 0.151 0.1138 -0.369
4 Coastline 17 11.76% 31.47 94.12% 0.296 0.2589 0.178
4 Leaf 17 41.18% 33.65 58.82% -0.272 -0.3741 -0.287
4 Other 134 49.25% 37.51 84.33% -0.619 -1.3328 -0.131
4 Thematic 257 41.63% 46.46 74.32% -0.254 -0.1504 -1.247
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1479 38.45% 36.75 77.82% -0.902 -0.8243 -1.748
5 Archipelago 19 52.63% 46.32 94.74% 0.033 -0.0644 -0.301
5 Coastline 11 0.0% 26.18 90.91% 0.043 -0.5451 0.075
5 Other 231 32.03% 40.85 82.25% -0.343 -0.8591 -1.058
5 Thematic 50 50.0% 53.8 72.0% 0.586 0.2989 -0.429
6 Archipelago 18 44.44% 42.39 88.89% 0.015 -0.1317 -1.134
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 128 39.06% 32.89 71.88% -1.553 -1.5079 -2.351
6 Star 56 35.71% 37.46 78.57% -1.776 -1.0054 -1.701
6 Thematic 183 21.86% 43.11 83.06% -0.574 -0.3332 -0.724
6 Two Centers (Default) 365 28.85% 50.03 83.84% -0.94 -0.7489 -2.075
7 Archipelago 5 40.0% 77.4 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.135
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 5 60.0% 35.4 60.0% -0.647 -1.131 -1.477

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1074 31.15 58.75% -1.008 0.9624 -0.33
Aid From Lesser Spirits 943 33.6 58.85% -1.074 0.7037 -0.204
All Things Weaken 1138 29.88 50.62% -1.721 0.3278 -0.115
Back Against the Wall 915 32.53 55.3% -1.014 0.9251 -0.17
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1034 28.76 52.22% -1.231 0.8966 -0.581
Downward Spiral 1271 28.72 54.92% -1.292 0.6689 -0.427
Erosion of Will 1056 29.62 53.31% -1.565 0.5167 -0.311
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 450 34.54 80.89% 0.623 1.1249 0.644
Memory Fades to Dust 1255 29.88 54.74% -1.682 0.459 -0.352
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1154 29.47 55.72% -1.597 0.3839 -0.329
Promising Farmlands 981 29.86 51.48% -1.534 0.4872 -0.388
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 292 35.54 83.56% 0.081 0.5773 0.654
Thriving Communities 1163 29.23 52.71% -1.322 0.7371 -0.22
Unnatural Proliferation 1215 31.12 52.59% -1.398 0.5587 -0.32
Untended Land Crumbles 1188 29.47 54.8% -1.27 0.7636 -0.622

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6830 52.31% 33.21 71.41% 0.056 0.7926 0.386
B 7017 50.6% 33.54 74.32% 0.198 0.8951 0.427
C 7313 50.78% 33.0 73.24% 0.151 0.621 0.285
D 6094 51.43% 33.24 73.47% 0.317 1.0263 0.178
E 6312 50.21% 33.41 72.23% 0.258 0.8023 0.263
F 5772 49.99% 33.48 72.11% 0.228 0.8897 0.235
G 5207 49.77% 33.38 74.44% 0.302 0.933 0.287
H 5240 51.03% 34.33 72.35% 0.25 0.9147 0.366
East 1047 48.18% 38.49 67.05% 0.449 1.1111 -0.592
Northeast 675 42.81% 40.54 69.48% 0.1 0.7598 -1.017
Northwest 583 43.22% 39.62 68.78% -0.947 -0.3367 -0.25
Southeast 502 43.11% 39.11 68.13% -0.021 0.5097 -0.418
Southwest 478 46.75% 37.46 65.06% -0.076 0.8921 -0.178
West 1016 53.1% 36.91 62.99% -0.429 0.3762 -0.186

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 183 0.0% 18.95 74.86% -0.81 1.4193 0.424
Not Using Events or Tokens 303 33.46% 22.94 84.49% -0.318 -0.0919 -1.026
Skip Initial Invader Actions 620 18.75% 48.52 88.71% 0.253 -0.7276 0.109
Start of Game Growth 892 23.31% 44.99 87.67% -0.034 -0.4911 1.408
Unlimited Undo 2518 43.54% 36.39 81.33% 0.431 -0.1209 0.975
Using Tokens but Not Events 2487 39.01% 26.89 77.97% -0.097 0.0585 -0.482

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1874 100.0% 38.91 100.0% 0.576 0.5013 -0.048
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 321 100.0% 31.52 100.0% -0.203 -0.1247 -0.138
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 552 100.0% 30.65 100.0% 0.102 -0.1224 0.253
Downpour Drenches the World 270 100.0% 38.97 100.0% -0.444 -0.1792 -0.304
Eyes Watch From the Trees 675 100.0% 34.04 100.0% 0.131 -0.3723 -0.056
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 638 100.0% 32.8 100.0% 0.016 -0.5708 -0.1
Finder of Paths Unseen 136 100.0% 41.07 100.0% 0.286 0.6416 0.463
Fractured Days Split the Sky 949 100.0% 50.79 100.0% 0.358 0.4402 0.145
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 909 100.0% 33.68 100.0% -0.074 -0.1691 0.112
Heart of the Wildfire 467 100.0% 29.32 100.0% -0.457 -0.0518 0.195
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1700 100.0% 36.46 100.0% -0.021 -0.6249 0.13
Lightning's Swift Strike 420 213.88% 29.96 143.33% -0.818 -0.4534 -0.313
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 260 48.08% 45.51 73.85% 0.402 -0.347 0.515
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 262 42.69% 35.73 80.53% -0.1 -0.6642 0.483
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 356 43.34% 38.95 82.3% 0.453 -0.0418 0.64
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1264 100.0% 35.16 100.0% -0.489 -0.6407 -0.032
Many Minds Move as One 514 100.0% 33.4 100.0% 0.484 -0.1017 -0.56
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 942 100.0% 36.88 100.0% 0.38 0.2107 0.253
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 596 100.0% 31.24 100.0% -0.139 -0.1953 0.275
River Surges in Sunlight 617 147.01% 36.03 120.75% 0.747 0.673 0.447
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 396 39.09% 39.52 73.48% -0.885 -0.4583 -0.23
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 89 42.7% 41.66 74.16% -0.014 -0.3548 0.286
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3048 100.0% 45.57 100.0% 0.717 0.5231 0.782
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 110 260.18% 27.67 195.45% 0.351 0.8254 -0.526
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 34 61.76% 36.0 61.76% -0.152 0.0278 -0.335
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 51 47.06% 29.9 76.47% 0.005 0.06 -0.373
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 141 44.93% 29.78 74.47% 0.651 0.6284 -0.124
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 163 60.12% 30.84 73.01% 0.124 0.2397 0.045
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 677 100.0% 35.63 100.0% 0.256 0.0652 0.407
Shroud of Silent Mist 1040 100.0% 28.9 100.0% 0.593 0.7268 -1.197
Starlight Seeks its Form 1130 100.0% 40.29 100.0% 0.126 0.0112 0.385
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 986 100.0% 32.31 100.0% -0.345 -0.5833 0.014
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 589 100.0% 33.87 100.0% -0.178 -0.0479 0.367
Thunderspeaker 714 100.0% 35.04 100.0% -0.301 -0.3183 0.05
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 475 100.0% 30.4 100.0% 0.326 0.1104 -0.184
Vital Strength of the Earth 403 148.88% 33.61 132.51% -0.939 -0.041 -0.286
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 192 41.15% 45.84 61.46% -0.599 -0.1758 -0.329
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 173 51.45% 32.17 67.05% -0.239 0.8749 -0.341
Volcano Looming High 879 100.0% 31.18 100.0% -0.446 -0.4664 -0.482

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Ancient Memories 85.07%
Elemental Teachings 95.95%
Share Secrets of Survival 95.01%
Study the Invaders' Fears 84.53%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4013 22.65 7.65%
II 8199 31.08 59.12%
III 10499 34.66 90.23%
IV 5175 37.91 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 292
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9205
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4591
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5058
Lose: Invader deck ran out 237
Lose: Adversary condition 2710
Win: Sacrifice victory 479
Lose: Scenario condition 299
Win: Scenario condition 160
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4647
Lose: Spirit destroyed 208

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.277 Win Model: -0.216

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.699 Win Model: 0.285
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 13570 60.66% 28.17 67.41%
2 8165 53.95% 33.3 72.24%
3 3270 48.27% 35.15 74.95%
4 1949 38.36% 38.66 78.14%
5 200 24.5% 33.76 84.5%
6 732 30.23% 44.83 81.42%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)