Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 38 50.0% 35.08 1.353 76.32% 0.037 0.6029
Dahan Insurrection 4 62 50.0% 46.42 6.365 54.84% -0.855 -0.4543
Despicable Theft 2 16 68.75% 31.13 0.145 62.5% -0.659 -0.3848
Elemental Invocation 1 34 61.76% 29.82 -1.738 64.71% -0.529 -0.026
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 409 16.71% 42.17 2.61 73.11% -0.825 -0.4605
Powers Long Forgotten 1 19 84.21% 27.63 -1.383 52.63% -0.768 -0.322
Rituals of Terror 3 8 37.5% 38.5 3.354 62.5% -0.733 -0.0883
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 32.22 2.198 55.56% -0.608 0.039
Second Wave 0 56 50.94% 26.88 -2.259 73.21% -0.849 -0.4191
The Great River 3 17 47.06% 29.53 0.014 35.29% -2.113 -0.6404
Ward the Shores 2 28 50.0% 35.79 -1.01 46.43% -1.434 -0.4024

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 4936 58.22% 28.99 -1.363 69.27% -0.301 -0.2145
1 Thematic 73 69.86% 23.56 -3.632 50.68% -1.012 -0.7352
2 Archipelago 50 64.0% 36.56 2.994 84.0% 0.491 0.4975
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1724 55.09% 35.2 0.931 71.23% -0.081 -0.0557
2 Coastline 313 45.83% 34.32 0.614 79.23% 0.195 0.1702
2 Fragment 59 67.86% 36.93 1.494 67.8% -0.069 0.1533
2 Heart 43 57.14% 37.14 2.003 76.74% 0.208 0.3078
2 Opposite Shores 439 42.2% 28.88 -1.625 74.94% -0.293 -0.2275
2 Thematic 65 55.38% 29.48 -1.349 72.31% -0.252 -0.319
2 Top to Top 76 50.0% 34.97 0.94 78.95% 0.205 0.1363
3 Archipelago 30 46.67% 34.33 0.256 60.0% -1.161 -0.3564
3 Coastline 12 75.0% 33.0 -0.757 66.67% -0.211 -0.361
3 Other 162 48.45% 40.2 2.608 87.04% 0.768 0.9402
3 Round (Default) 719 48.82% 36.51 0.755 72.88% -0.237 -0.2755
3 Sunrise 5 40.0% 40.0 3.9 100.0% 0.603 0.3433
3 Thematic 20 55.0% 38.3 0.811 55.0% -0.711 -1.0774
4 Archipelago 38 68.42% 33.92 0.233 52.63% -0.562 -0.0146
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 38.0 1.937 100.0% 0.555 0.6747
4 Leaf 3 33.33% 43.67 -2.65 33.33% -0.807 -0.735
4 Other 61 57.38% 41.75 2.358 80.33% 0.14 0.0703
4 Thematic 99 28.28% 57.88 6.001 81.82% 0.246 -0.7511
4 Trapezoid (Default) 405 36.88% 38.04 0.632 80.74% -0.068 -0.0598
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 47.0 5.539 88.89% 0.412 1.5714
5 Other 42 47.62% 47.02 4.488 88.1% 0.591 0.1304
5 Thematic 17 58.82% 51.59 5.949 76.47% 0.462 -1.9293
6 Archipelago 4 75.0% 55.25 9.851 100.0% 0.463 0.8287
6 Other 5 40.0% 53.6 5.907 100.0% 0.456 0.2785
6 Thematic 1 0.0% 37.0 -0.162 100.0% 0.027 -0.1778

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 358 32.18 -0.569 57.82% -1.365 0.7041
Aid From Lesser Spirits 327 33.72 0.025 57.49% -1.433 0.4794
All Things Weaken 389 30.1 -1.465 48.33% -1.77 0.3891
Back Against the Wall 292 32.35 -0.684 54.45% -1.546 0.5407
Disintegrating Ecosystem 342 29.4 -2.072 53.22% -1.663 0.5594
Downward Spiral 422 29.25 -1.68 58.53% -1.476 0.5457
Erosion of Will 369 29.25 -1.773 53.39% -1.678 0.5292
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 161 35.36 1.224 81.99% -0.095 0.5835
Memory Fades to Dust 404 31.54 -0.652 60.15% -1.357 0.8584
Power Corrodes the Spirit 423 30.18 -1.389 54.61% -1.578 0.4429
Promising Farmlands 333 30.02 -1.524 55.26% -1.51 0.6981
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 89 38.39 2.496 83.15% 0.01 0.4212
Thriving Communities 364 29.65 -1.782 54.67% -1.587 0.5009
Unnatural Proliferation 415 31.94 -0.612 53.25% -1.637 0.4437
Untended Land Crumbles 400 30.25 -1.402 58.0% -1.503 0.5988

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1250 57.22% 30.99 -0.623 69.2% 0.06 -0.6275
B 1375 53.59% 32.73 0.512 73.89% 0.303 -0.4804
C 1412 52.91% 32.13 0.112 71.39% 0.216 -0.7963
D 1022 56.71% 30.96 -0.49 72.5% 0.157 -0.6206
E 1150 54.81% 32.13 0.053 72.26% 0.186 -0.7082
F 1048 54.69% 32.82 0.264 71.18% 0.181 -0.6594
G 941 54.12% 31.43 -0.388 71.41% 0.058 -0.7739
H 940 52.25% 32.51 0.071 71.28% 0.134 -0.7051
East 70 37.14% 51.17 2.814 71.43% -0.3 -0.8757
Northeast 57 47.37% 40.05 2.239 70.18% -0.17 -0.6947
Northwest 47 61.7% 35.11 0.351 68.09% -0.138 -0.7335
Southeast 30 43.33% 41.5 2.185 80.0% 0.496 -0.1328
Southwest 21 47.62% 29.62 -2.896 52.38% -0.979 -1.1776
West 50 62.0% 33.28 0.225 66.0% -0.15 -0.4773

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 56 0.0% 18.45 -5.661 73.21% -1.781 0.2719
Not Using Events or Tokens 117 31.48% 23.37 -2.436 87.18% 0.023 0.2377
Skip Initial Invader Actions 230 20.19% 48.33 4.281 87.39% 0.35 -0.3367
Start of Game Growth 325 21.78% 46.36 4.003 86.77% 0.797 0.328
Unlimited Undo 874 47.9% 37.0 1.682 80.09% 0.563 0.1403
Using Tokens but Not Events 766 38.39% 25.61 -2.935 80.29% -0.312 -0.3626

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 452 39.56% 37.12 -0.02 75.66% -0.224 -0.1198
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 73 58.9% 32.48 -1.261 72.6% -0.227 -0.0293
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 138 38.97% 31.23 -1.27 76.81% -0.308 -0.4217
Eyes Watch From the Trees 175 37.71% 34.71 0.466 84.57% 0.395 -0.0093
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 184 36.07% 35.04 0.502 83.7% 0.282 -0.0236
Fractured Days Split the Sky 211 40.76% 51.06 4.77 75.36% 0.054 0.4018
Heart of the Wildfire 151 72.85% 30.68 -1.565 60.26% -0.332 -0.0132
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 526 36.76% 37.24 0.759 82.89% 0.394 0.0513
Lightning's Swift Strike 338 43.88% 37.54 1.332 80.18% 0.242 0.4674
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 407 44.83% 36.78 0.696 79.85% 0.239 -0.0477
Many Minds Move as One 115 37.39% 36.4 0.707 78.26% -0.203 -0.7362
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 244 48.15% 38.56 1.203 75.0% 0.088 -0.1362
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 167 49.7% 32.84 -0.582 79.04% 0.124 0.1384
River Surges in Sunlight 308 49.03% 35.47 0.064 72.4% -0.203 -0.0822
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 976 45.18% 46.48 5.002 76.23% 0.484 0.5869
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 133 60.77% 31.16 -0.905 72.18% -0.049 0.3561
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 196 44.1% 39.22 1.783 82.14% 0.452 0.3397
Shroud of Silent Mist 346 63.77% 28.24 -2.621 58.09% -0.786 -0.7292
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 228 47.58% 33.34 -0.955 73.68% -0.195 -0.2543
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 163 40.49% 36.45 1.376 85.89% 0.725 0.8852
Thunderspeaker 173 41.86% 36.53 1.128 78.61% 0.029 0.0525
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 131 70.0% 30.69 -1.658 61.83% -0.267 -0.2948
Vital Strength of the Earth 152 48.0% 33.3 -1.041 69.74% -0.401 0.4434
Volcano Looming High 260 60.77% 32.47 -0.83 66.54% -0.225 -0.214

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Ancient Memories 84.17%
Elemental Teachings 96.04%
Share Secrets of Survival 95.44%
Study the Invaders' Fears 85.41%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1246 22.37 8.11%
II 2832 30.88 58.16%
III 3543 34.39 90.38%
IV 1792 37.55 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 99
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1581
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1755
Lose: Invader deck ran out 81
Lose: Adversary condition 920
Win: Sacrifice victory 145
Lose: Scenario condition 86
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1533
Lose: Spirit destroyed 54

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.476 Win Model: -0.235

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.725 Win Model: 0.143
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 5208 58.68% 29.08 69.22%
2 2772 51.71% 34.69 73.52%
3 824 48.72% 36.53 73.67%
4 609 37.5% 41.94 80.3%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)