Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1418 44.17% 27.96 -3.394 72.43% -0.571 0.0059
Dahan Insurrection 4 1121 35.38% 52.62 8.326 73.42% -0.462 -0.061
Despicable Theft 2 8 25.0% 36.38 0.559 87.5% -0.339 0.0897
Elemental Invocation 1 75 45.33% 31.85 -1.615 85.33% 0.215 0.5958
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9321 9.81% 51.68 5.878 84.35% -0.221 0.1445
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1207 37.93% 43.2 2.225 77.63% -0.423 0.0183
Rituals of Terror 3 634 47.94% 40.6 3.134 73.82% -0.376 0.2526
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 292 77.05% 35.84 1.239 52.05% -0.762 -0.112
Second Wave 0 5743 42.71% 30.61 -1.714 76.25% -0.616 -0.2
The Great River 3 128 39.06% 35.48 0.274 73.44% -1.383 0.0888
Ward the Shores 2 853 39.83% 38.21 1.004 65.18% -0.998 0.0383

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 65246 36.23% 36.71 0.386 80.1% -0.768 -0.4097
1 Thematic 4086 40.33% 37.97 0.602 71.83% -1.103 -0.5998
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 19156 42.95% 34.13 -0.743 77.9% -0.402 -0.2058
2 Coastline 2012 43.12% 33.79 -0.95 80.17% -0.251 -0.1089
2 Fragment 663 41.85% 33.2 -1.27 76.47% -0.473 -0.0506
2 Heart 285 53.21% 29.26 -2.639 70.18% -0.837 -0.5446
2 Opposite Shores 3523 39.55% 34.15 -0.979 78.57% -0.453 -0.2285
2 Thematic 2029 48.3% 36.36 -0.263 67.23% -0.745 -0.7006
2 Top to Top 577 42.23% 36.06 -0.184 76.95% -0.439 -0.3043
3 Coastline 54 50.0% 37.13 0.894 77.78% 0.389 0.3556
3 Other 372 36.31% 32.88 -1.512 79.84% -0.278 0.1376
3 Round (Default) 10825 34.97% 34.89 -0.495 80.53% 0.093 0.1323
3 Sunrise 101 31.68% 46.69 2.774 83.17% 0.386 0.1629
3 Thematic 516 49.81% 36.58 -0.383 66.67% -0.258 -0.6145
4 Coastline 46 13.04% 37.22 0.104 89.13% 0.593 0.7517
4 Leaf 40 52.5% 32.13 -1.953 62.5% -0.005 0.0224
4 Other 255 25.69% 34.85 -0.877 89.8% 0.781 0.8945
4 Reverse Snake 4 25.0% 37.75 1.68 100.0% 0.469 -0.3193
4 Snake 3 66.67% 40.33 1.868 100.0% 0.715 0.839
4 Thematic 3082 22.41% 51.09 3.729 79.79% 0.277 -0.8095
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8835 29.32% 38.32 -0.049 81.17% 0.417 0.3997
5 Other 68 50.0% 40.51 2.406 95.59% 2.227 2.0088
5 Thematic 6 0.0% 51.0 3.382 100.0% 0.436 -2.3918

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4674 31.08 -3.771 54.6% -2.377 -0.3067
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4038 32.94 -2.838 56.51% -2.244 -0.3252
All Things Weaken 1118 33.37 -2.859 55.01% -2.303 -0.1485
Back Against the Wall 3864 31.92 -3.304 55.31% -2.34 -0.2439
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3939 28.53 -5.123 51.23% -2.523 -0.299
Downward Spiral 5281 29.14 -4.269 58.76% -2.272 -0.2547
Erosion of Will 4304 29.61 -4.54 51.07% -2.554 -0.3442
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 460 40.43 0.737 84.35% -0.729 -0.0248
Memory Fades to Dust 5211 29.13 -4.342 56.96% -2.363 -0.1475
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1066 31.8 -3.433 56.75% -2.284 -0.2642
Promising Farmlands 4205 28.84 -4.856 52.15% -2.504 -0.2915
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 296 40.7 0.906 90.2% -0.24 0.1958
Thriving Communities 1026 31.46 -3.69 54.0% -2.339 -0.2411
Tipping Point 2827 25.01 -6.828 37.32% -3.172 -0.9542
Unnatural Proliferation 1115 34.4 -2.398 55.78% -2.221 -0.1438
Untended Land Crumbles 1022 31.23 -3.882 51.66% -2.444 -0.3454

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 19644 38.02% 33.86 -0.968 78.81% -0.028 -1.118
B 26615 34.69% 38.38 0.67 80.38% 0.167 -1.0179
C 19857 37.22% 34.79 -0.57 79.88% 0.058 -1.3573
D 18055 37.1% 34.25 -0.764 79.56% 0.015 -1.1619
E 5368 38.64% 40.88 1.796 80.59% 0.395 -0.8817
F 8351 38.76% 37.15 0.284 79.68% 0.166 -1.0775
G 6536 39.46% 35.11 -0.495 79.59% 0.077 -1.1536
H 7855 37.27% 37.05 0.206 79.81% 0.096 -1.144
East 1415 46.03% 37.16 0.179 65.37% -0.426 -1.3762
Northeast 2935 32.97% 43.65 2.302 77.48% -0.025 -0.9153
Northwest 1246 44.77% 37.48 0.315 66.77% -0.316 -1.2811
Southeast 398 34.42% 38.0 0.448 79.4% 0.125 -0.8768
Southwest 675 30.21% 40.42 -0.111 78.37% -0.106 -0.7138
West 2835 33.91% 45.29 2.172 73.3% -0.148 -0.8343

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1727 0.0% 26.58 -4.806 81.7% -2.093 -0.0491
Not Using Events or Tokens 118 50.0% 19.58 -5.843 67.8% -0.895 -0.6764
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3875 9.81% 46.81 3.232 93.45% 0.791 0.0867
Start of Game Growth 5871 11.45% 47.64 3.144 90.63% 0.172 -0.2821
Unlimited Undo 12122 27.48% 40.14 1.27 86.22% 0.331 -0.0816
Using Tokens but Not Events 13746 23.38% 31.96 -1.788 87.77% 0.002 -0.0457

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 8337 27.72% 36.22 -0.272 82.9% -0.002 0.1439
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3084 49.14% 32.47 -1.428 73.83% -0.141 0.0956
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2364 33.7% 37.26 -0.07 79.23% -0.067 -0.1529
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3005 31.21% 37.67 0.42 83.63% 0.226 -0.1386
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2656 31.88% 37.34 -0.319 79.37% -0.138 -0.3831
Fractured Days Split the Sky 385 33.51% 41.09 1.213 80.0% -0.005 0.3411
Heart of the Wildfire 3832 48.76% 35.38 -0.937 72.31% -0.124 0.2261
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13585 29.51% 39.5 0.66 82.05% 0.074 -0.2257
Lightning's Swift Strike 5671 33.52% 36.39 -0.325 79.76% -0.051 0.2173
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1211 39.42% 40.92 0.959 82.41% 0.285 -0.034
Many Minds Move as One 3556 32.05% 36.87 0.149 85.1% 0.262 -0.2581
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6490 37.35% 40.52 1.395 79.58% 0.206 0.012
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2258 36.91% 38.32 0.295 79.98% 0.082 0.1309
River Surges in Sunlight 6158 35.72% 39.14 0.607 78.74% -0.065 0.0969
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5027 36.6% 36.76 -0.5 74.82% -0.319 -0.169
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3788 45.07% 33.32 -1.347 74.87% -0.185 0.2643
Shroud of Silent Mist 32 40.63% 36.81 -1.099 81.25% 0.066 0.0217
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1695 37.27% 39.62 0.173 79.06% 0.038 0.0185
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2148 34.96% 37.72 0.232 81.52% 0.063 0.2793
Thunderspeaker 7874 27.09% 39.26 0.746 81.94% -0.045 0.0124
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1102 53.59% 34.75 -1.504 71.23% -0.185 -0.1652
Vital Strength of the Earth 4350 37.25% 32.36 -1.76 74.62% -0.421 0.4493
Volcano Looming High 269 45.86% 38.6 -0.007 78.81% 0.047 -0.0152

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Prey on the Builders 90.47%
Teeth Gleam from Darkness 94.49%
Terrifying Chase 72.69%
Too Near the Jungle 91.66%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17277 22.34 43.2%
II 50188 30.75 76.79%
III 40704 34.26 90.79%
IV 13616 37.47 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4776
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24264
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24607
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9238
Lose: Invader deck ran out 820
Lose: Adversary condition 6234
Win: Sacrifice victory 312
Lose: Scenario condition 1280
Win: Scenario condition 1379
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14526
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2419

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.807 Win Model: -0.193

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: -0.351
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 69348 36.48% 36.78 79.62%
2 28286 42.98% 34.25 77.26%
3 11862 35.7% 35.01 79.94%
4 12289 27.56% 41.43 81.01%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)