Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 31 22.58% 30.03 83.87% 0.369 -0.0139 0.0
Blitz 0 1197 44.3% 28.97 72.1% -0.746 -0.2574 -1.329
Dahan Insurrection 4 894 33.86% 53.43 74.5% -0.561 -0.4211 0.379
Despicable Theft 2 142 40.14% 37.89 78.87% -0.514 -0.0676 -0.29
Elemental Invocation 1 266 48.12% 32.89 71.8% -0.75 -0.1121 -1.081
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9229 10.5% 54.18 84.91% 0.103 0.2701 0.581
Powers Long Forgotten 1 927 35.61% 43.88 78.21% -0.696 -0.0855 -1.512
Rituals of Terror 3 584 52.29% 40.03 68.66% -1.004 -1.1546 -0.924
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 260 75.77% 36.78 53.46% -0.181 0.1459 -0.967
Second Wave 0 6003 40.07% 30.56 78.71% -0.378 0.1292 -0.826
The Great River 3 221 38.46% 35.1 69.23% -0.929 0.8015 -1.25
Varied Terrains 2 33 48.48% 36.21 84.85% 0.541 1.3008 1.139
Ward the Shores 2 698 42.92% 37.16 65.19% -1.147 -0.3481 -1.063

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 91592 37.01% 36.94 80.04% 0.13 0.8019 0.837
1 Thematic 5210 39.71% 37.3 72.61% 0.22 1.3304 0.412
2 Archipelago 43 32.56% 45.72 97.67% 0.263 1.4335 0.903
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 26301 43.3% 34.2 78.53% -0.076 0.4475 0.563
2 Coastline 2943 43.31% 33.89 79.54% 0.107 0.3395 0.349
2 Fragment 886 43.3% 34.05 77.43% 0.133 0.3618 1.188
2 Heart 389 53.79% 30.47 72.24% -0.348 0.2965 0.706
2 Opposite Shores 5065 37.64% 33.91 79.66% -0.072 0.44 0.075
2 Thematic 2638 47.15% 36.34 68.46% 0.188 1.1872 -0.246
2 Top to Top 812 44.1% 36.19 76.97% 0.028 0.2675 0.652
3 Archipelago 39 41.03% 35.9 87.18% -0.587 -0.2171 0.238
3 Coastline 104 40.38% 34.3 80.77% 0.118 0.1306 0.657
3 Other 591 33.73% 32.88 83.76% 0.974 0.2707 0.101
3 Round (Default) 14862 35.92% 35.73 80.97% 0.011 0.2687 0.039
3 Sunrise 118 27.97% 44.42 83.9% 0.0 -0.0721 0.088
3 Thematic 717 48.12% 36.41 70.43% -0.31 0.1922 -0.809
4 Archipelago 35 20.0% 44.63 91.43% 0.354 0.8301 0.245
4 Coastline 77 10.39% 33.32 87.01% 0.0 -0.483 -0.077
4 Leaf 60 50.0% 32.6 70.0% 0.21 0.5336 -1.08
4 Other 385 27.49% 33.92 90.13% 0.342 -0.1931 0.798
4 Reverse Snake 4 25.0% 37.75 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 40.33 100.0% 0.0 0.6131 0.0
4 Thematic 3895 23.44% 51.13 79.92% -0.388 -0.2581 -1.205
4 Trapezoid (Default) 12034 29.0% 39.35 82.31% -0.44 -0.1562 -0.414
5 Archipelago 25 48.0% 47.36 88.0% 0.034 -0.2681 -0.007
5 Coastline 14 14.29% 33.29 100.0% 0.074 -0.5953 0.047
5 Other 262 37.31% 35.79 89.69% 0.941 0.2492 -0.317
5 Thematic 47 23.4% 46.43 91.49% 0.26 -0.1478 -0.739
6 Archipelago 29 20.69% 46.21 100.0% 0.26 0.1272 0.084
6 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.8385 0.0
6 Other 107 23.36% 33.01 85.98% 0.117 -0.4883 -1.071
6 Star 59 22.03% 35.86 86.44% -0.804 -0.1926 -0.401
6 Thematic 368 17.71% 50.47 85.87% -0.72 -0.8509 -0.895
6 Two Centers (Default) 379 21.18% 36.14 82.59% -0.93 -0.4275 -1.61
7 Archipelago 3 33.33% 47.67 66.67% 0.12 0.4574 -0.445
7 Other 5 0.0% 34.0 80.0% -0.485 -0.8515 -0.63

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6220 31.36 55.08% -1.995 -0.0469 -1.372
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5418 33.45 57.27% -2.156 -0.3866 -1.179
All Things Weaken 2195 33.81 55.13% -1.941 0.1361 -1.308
Back Against the Wall 5251 32.35 55.65% -1.905 -0.017 -1.225
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5335 28.61 51.15% -2.27 -0.1822 -1.615
Downward Spiral 7008 29.37 59.16% -1.989 -0.1063 -1.388
Erosion of Will 5853 30.06 51.87% -2.445 -0.3443 -1.601
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 897 40.73 84.62% -0.41 0.1743 -0.164
Memory Fades to Dust 7062 29.42 57.56% -2.216 -0.1436 -1.308
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2065 32.6 56.76% -2.304 -0.3846 -1.424
Promising Farmlands 5623 29.48 53.26% -2.316 -0.2673 -1.691
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 626 41.6 89.78% -1.117 -0.7144 0.11
Thriving Communities 2072 32.03 54.2% -2.135 -0.0859 -1.424
Tipping Point 2827 25.01 37.32% 0.0 0.0 -2.406
Unnatural Proliferation 2272 35.03 57.83% -2.026 -0.0557 -1.364
Untended Land Crumbles 2082 31.6 52.31% -2.062 -0.042 -1.46

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 45537 36.46% 35.13 79.84% -0.109 0.639 -0.29
B 53906 35.73% 36.99 80.46% 0.266 0.973 -0.064
C 47014 36.0% 35.92 80.59% 0.149 0.6266 -0.254
D 41763 37.12% 34.52 79.86% -0.194 0.484 -0.106
E 17190 36.6% 40.69 82.09% 0.508 1.071 0.279
F 22203 38.02% 36.97 80.39% 0.132 0.7808 -0.139
G 18765 38.45% 36.13 80.04% -0.105 0.5097 -0.216
H 20911 36.64% 37.46 81.11% 0.376 1.0021 -0.037
East 9665 33.94% 43.75 75.65% 0.315 0.8616 -0.959
Northeast 6651 32.08% 45.32 77.03% -0.588 0.0865 0.078
Northwest 5436 31.58% 46.24 76.18% -0.354 0.1163 -0.708
Southeast 1970 28.0% 44.71 80.86% 0.108 0.8123 -0.394
Southwest 2066 29.73% 42.86 79.38% -0.214 0.7874 -0.33
West 9199 34.36% 43.26 74.73% -0.017 0.7658 -0.158

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2139 0.0% 25.89 80.93% -2.642 -0.4134 1.241
Not Using Events or Tokens 148 50.44% 19.07 66.22% 0.016 0.2257 -0.457
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5283 9.26% 46.65 93.09% 0.867 -0.3791 -0.043
Start of Game Growth 7996 11.31% 47.7 90.38% 0.286 -0.1389 0.277
Unlimited Undo 17045 28.47% 40.22 86.76% 0.589 0.1005 0.546
Using Tokens but Not Events 18354 23.62% 32.05 87.83% -0.201 -0.0395 -0.154

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 10436 100.0% 36.42 100.0% -0.172 -0.2858 0.126
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3809 100.0% 32.89 100.0% 0.385 0.4492 0.157
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3390 100.0% 36.41 100.0% 0.086 -0.1237 -0.022
Downpour Drenches the World 277 100.0% 38.99 100.0% -0.417 -0.0617 0.393
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4293 100.0% 37.03 100.0% 0.536 0.0401 0.252
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3959 100.0% 38.11 100.0% -0.01 -0.5093 -0.339
Finder of Paths Unseen 148 100.0% 40.37 100.0% 0.409 0.7856 0.112
Fractured Days Split the Sky 795 100.0% 42.56 100.0% -0.39 -0.3363 0.009
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 922 100.0% 39.77 100.0% 0.092 0.0285 0.453
Heart of the Wildfire 4687 100.0% 35.37 100.0% -0.029 0.2754 0.111
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 18094 100.0% 40.21 100.0% 0.222 -0.3271 0.196
Lightning's Swift Strike 6275 112.02% 35.97 103.67% -0.34 -0.0126 0.116
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 147 27.54% 48.15 75.51% -0.892 -1.7183 -0.838
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 421 42.58% 42.74 81.24% 0.381 -0.0836 0.703
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 642 35.0% 43.8 82.09% 0.009 -0.5685 0.595
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3900 100.0% 41.37 100.0% 0.188 0.1101 -0.022
Many Minds Move as One 6726 100.0% 36.36 100.0% 0.413 -0.1782 -0.029
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8442 100.0% 40.9 100.0% -0.16 -0.296 0.965
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3275 100.0% 37.52 100.0% -0.177 -0.2004 0.108
River Surges in Sunlight 7280 107.58% 39.34 102.43% 0.798 0.6628 0.252
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 694 36.38% 41.95 78.53% -0.429 0.0125 -0.41
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 175 34.3% 48.43 84.0% 0.272 -0.1057 0.435
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6382 100.0% 38.05 100.0% 0.613 0.5091 0.045
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3941 111.47% 32.52 103.35% 0.632 1.0955 -0.097
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 36 30.3% 47.97 72.22% -0.562 -0.5714 -0.539
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 72 35.71% 45.67 86.11% -0.609 -0.4858 0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 345 38.01% 35.92 81.74% 0.218 0.1605 0.046
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 295 40.96% 40.15 83.39% 0.789 0.8555 -0.023
Shifting Memory of Ages 705 100.0% 35.38 100.0% -0.629 -0.4585 -0.243
Shroud of Silent Mist 650 100.0% 33.18 100.0% 0.212 0.4091 -0.433
Starlight Seeks its Form 842 100.0% 40.66 100.0% -0.513 -0.5889 -0.217
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2947 100.0% 40.67 100.0% -0.118 -0.3543 -0.008
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3184 100.0% 37.6 100.0% 0.477 0.5663 0.209
Thunderspeaker 10388 100.0% 40.04 100.0% 0.313 0.2469 -0.113
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1715 100.0% 35.57 100.0% -0.396 -0.6623 -0.335
Vital Strength of the Earth 4989 106.3% 31.98 102.63% -0.68 0.1785 -0.436
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 155 34.25% 42.43 80.65% -0.276 0.262 0.509
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 363 39.17% 33.6 72.18% -0.261 0.9359 -1.661
Volcano Looming High 1215 100.0% 37.26 100.0% 0.032 -0.0039 0.167

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Prey on the Builders 90.64%
Teeth Gleam from Darkness 94.15%
Terrifying Chase 72.93%
Too Near the Jungle 91.42%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23556 22.68 44.04%
II 69993 31.11 76.88%
III 57197 34.69 90.89%
IV 19367 37.96 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 10373
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 51009
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 52791
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19133
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1098
Lose: Adversary condition 8635
Win: Sacrifice victory 453
Lose: Scenario condition 1703
Win: Scenario condition 1702
Lose: Blight pool ran out 20293
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2923

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.821 Win Model: -0.202

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.012 Win Model: 0.097
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 96903 37.18% 36.96 79.63%
2 39154 42.96% 34.31 78.0%
3 16365 36.23% 35.7 80.75%
4 16569 27.7% 41.98 81.95%
5 190 23.4% 31.73 90.0%
6 932 20.22% 41.7 84.76%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-02 02:08:43 (Pacific Time)