Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1381 44.04% 27.81 -3.451 72.34% -0.576 -0.0036
Dahan Insurrection 4 1094 35.06% 52.73 8.397 73.58% -0.45 -0.049
Elemental Invocation 1 31 38.71% 32.23 -1.066 90.32% 0.428 0.893
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8994 9.79% 51.56 5.851 84.32% -0.227 0.1486
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1119 39.39% 42.42 2.077 76.68% -0.422 0.0255
Rituals of Terror 3 612 46.74% 40.79 3.238 74.84% -0.356 0.2659
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 286 77.27% 35.88 1.247 51.75% -0.763 -0.1384
Second Wave 0 5553 42.7% 30.62 -1.693 76.12% -0.621 -0.2017
The Great River 3 97 40.21% 35.92 0.545 72.16% -1.453 0.0314
Ward the Shores 2 837 39.4% 38.29 1.028 65.23% -0.996 0.0342

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 62731 36.24% 36.66 0.377 80.05% -0.773 -0.4185
1 Thematic 3915 40.28% 38.17 0.679 71.37% -1.084 -0.5863
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18490 42.99% 34.13 -0.732 77.86% -0.383 -0.1933
2 Coastline 1946 43.28% 33.87 -0.897 80.32% -0.211 -0.0761
2 Fragment 644 41.52% 33.09 -1.35 76.09% -0.495 -0.0697
2 Heart 277 52.94% 29.43 -2.571 70.04% -0.828 -0.5374
2 Opposite Shores 3422 39.77% 34.08 -0.998 78.2% -0.45 -0.2235
2 Thematic 1974 48.23% 36.39 -0.247 67.17% -0.683 -0.6383
2 Top to Top 564 41.43% 36.01 -0.202 77.13% -0.434 -0.3177
3 Coastline 50 50.0% 37.66 1.075 78.0% 0.458 0.4203
3 Other 352 36.39% 33.06 -1.41 80.4% -0.183 0.2185
3 Round (Default) 10474 34.92% 34.87 -0.476 80.53% 0.128 0.1592
3 Sunrise 100 31.0% 46.86 2.797 83.0% 0.381 0.1275
3 Thematic 503 49.3% 36.71 -0.315 66.8% -0.186 -0.5246
4 Coastline 26 19.23% 37.85 0.392 84.62% 0.219 0.3412
4 Leaf 40 52.5% 32.13 -1.951 62.5% 0.037 0.1171
4 Other 245 25.93% 34.65 -0.951 89.39% 0.786 0.8666
4 Reverse Snake 4 25.0% 37.75 1.69 100.0% 0.484 -0.3084
4 Snake 3 66.67% 40.33 1.892 100.0% 0.731 0.8571
4 Thematic 2919 22.74% 50.79 3.666 79.1% 0.349 -0.7294
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8481 29.41% 38.21 -0.051 81.17% 0.478 0.4456
5 Other 61 49.18% 41.39 2.774 95.08% 2.181 1.9636
5 Thematic 3 0.0% 31.67 -1.11 100.0% 0.235 -2.5326

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4530 31.1 -3.744 54.68% -2.372 -0.3037
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3908 32.94 -2.826 56.47% -2.244 -0.3275
All Things Weaken 1025 33.53 -2.791 55.12% -2.293 -0.1325
Back Against the Wall 3742 32.0 -3.26 55.37% -2.331 -0.2385
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3805 28.56 -5.1 51.2% -2.522 -0.3007
Downward Spiral 5125 29.05 -4.304 58.48% -2.279 -0.2643
Erosion of Will 4170 29.52 -4.567 50.74% -2.566 -0.3545
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 425 40.06 0.621 84.0% -0.765 -0.0529
Memory Fades to Dust 5052 29.09 -4.356 56.89% -2.364 -0.1478
Power Corrodes the Spirit 986 31.74 -3.444 56.9% -2.282 -0.2626
Promising Farmlands 4060 28.76 -4.888 51.92% -2.515 -0.3003
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 273 41.14 1.13 91.21% -0.113 0.3041
Thriving Communities 923 31.21 -3.787 53.74% -2.359 -0.2521
Tipping Point 2827 25.01 -6.823 37.32% -3.172 -0.9559
Unnatural Proliferation 1030 34.39 -2.411 55.63% -2.228 -0.1479
Untended Land Crumbles 938 31.14 -3.859 52.13% -2.436 -0.3411

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 19104 38.11% 33.87 -0.946 78.72% -0.008 -1.0807
B 25786 34.64% 38.35 0.684 80.38% 0.188 -0.9763
C 19251 37.28% 34.76 -0.569 79.68% 0.068 -1.3289
D 17527 37.01% 34.22 -0.759 79.55% 0.033 -1.1256
E 4911 39.15% 40.71 1.751 80.47% 0.415 -0.8416
F 7911 38.69% 37.07 0.263 79.67% 0.181 -1.0454
G 6181 39.58% 35.09 -0.474 79.76% 0.113 -1.099
H 7437 37.43% 37.1 0.242 79.8% 0.122 -1.0999
East 1375 46.14% 37.12 0.156 65.02% -0.446 -1.3815
Northeast 2783 33.41% 43.42 2.255 76.68% -0.054 -0.9236
Northwest 1225 44.81% 37.44 0.286 66.53% -0.338 -1.2835
Southeast 362 33.43% 38.02 0.376 78.18% 0.02 -0.963
Southwest 615 29.9% 40.28 -0.078 78.37% -0.088 -0.7135
West 2757 33.89% 45.34 2.217 73.27% -0.156 -0.8216

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1672 0.0% 26.44 -4.901 81.58% -2.11 -0.0712
Not Using Events or Tokens 117 49.41% 19.57 -5.837 67.52% -0.914 -0.6935
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3716 9.96% 46.65 3.234 93.33% 0.809 0.1033
Start of Game Growth 5621 11.71% 47.51 3.148 90.48% 0.168 -0.2908
Unlimited Undo 11675 27.54% 40.17 1.288 86.05% 0.318 -0.0843
Using Tokens but Not Events 13383 23.33% 31.97 -1.773 87.71% -0.006 -0.0517

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 8095 27.76% 36.2 -0.258 82.92% -0.006 0.1404
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3021 49.08% 32.49 -1.402 73.95% -0.136 0.1004
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2271 34.02% 37.3 -0.035 79.04% -0.081 -0.1676
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2900 31.3% 37.86 0.508 83.59% 0.227 -0.1421
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2498 32.7% 37.24 -0.262 79.62% -0.099 -0.3319
Fractured Days Split the Sky 341 32.84% 41.38 1.342 81.23% 0.077 0.4105
Heart of the Wildfire 3749 48.77% 35.44 -0.898 72.26% -0.126 0.2216
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13112 29.76% 39.34 0.626 81.8% 0.057 -0.2404
Lightning's Swift Strike 5509 33.48% 36.42 -0.291 79.83% -0.047 0.2218
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 961 39.79% 40.6 0.973 82.93% 0.342 -0.0189
Many Minds Move as One 3285 31.58% 36.82 0.125 85.21% 0.246 -0.2669
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6357 37.31% 40.49 1.396 79.53% 0.199 0.0021
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2158 37.04% 38.25 0.308 80.03% 0.085 0.1325
River Surges in Sunlight 5954 35.84% 38.93 0.572 78.49% -0.076 0.091
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4888 36.87% 36.59 -0.544 74.55% -0.34 -0.1906
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3680 45.3% 33.16 -1.379 74.59% -0.198 0.2516
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1616 37.31% 39.53 0.18 78.96% 0.035 0.0159
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2069 35.04% 37.74 0.25 81.49% 0.056 0.2714
Thunderspeaker 7613 27.4% 38.92 0.684 81.7% -0.055 0.0054
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1024 53.38% 34.69 -1.493 71.48% -0.181 -0.1447
Vital Strength of the Earth 4246 37.33% 32.36 -1.767 74.49% -0.434 0.4301
Volcano Looming High 158 46.5% 38.9 0.148 79.75% 0.042 -0.0585

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Prey on the Builders 90.4%
Teeth Gleam from Darkness 94.47%
Terrifying Chase 72.56%
Too Near the Jungle 91.68%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16639 22.34 42.88%
II 48375 30.71 76.75%
III 39169 34.23 90.76%
IV 13042 37.48 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4447
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22878
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23212
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8673
Lose: Invader deck ran out 808
Lose: Adversary condition 6003
Win: Sacrifice victory 303
Lose: Scenario condition 1236
Win: Scenario condition 1351
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14015
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2369

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.806 Win Model: -0.193

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.006 Win Model: -0.362
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 66662 36.48% 36.75 79.54%
2 27354 43.02% 34.25 77.18%
3 11476 35.62% 35.01 79.97%
4 11733 27.76% 41.24 80.8%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)