Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 19 21.05% 28.58 78.95% -0.137 -0.0287 0.0
Blitz 0 1134 44.26% 28.55 72.4% -0.144 0.1226 -1.716
Dahan Insurrection 4 875 34.25% 53.46 74.29% -1.809 -1.476 0.394
Despicable Theft 2 124 39.52% 37.83 79.03% 1.261 1.5112 -0.321
Elemental Invocation 1 239 48.54% 32.35 72.38% -1.229 -0.5802 -0.996
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8672 10.37% 53.95 84.93% 0.116 0.2818 0.58
Powers Long Forgotten 1 909 35.43% 44.05 78.33% 0.589 0.9144 -1.509
Rituals of Terror 3 552 51.22% 40.07 70.65% -0.025 -0.1342 -0.77
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 256 75.39% 36.71 53.13% -1.054 -0.3968 -0.945
Second Wave 0 5714 40.25% 30.53 78.49% -0.402 0.0685 -0.842
The Great River 3 212 38.68% 35.17 69.34% 0.228 1.7284 -1.232
Varied Terrains 2 18 50.0% 39.22 88.89% 0.617 1.1529 1.146
Ward the Shores 2 677 42.62% 37.34 65.73% -1.174 0.013 -1.013

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 87533 36.83% 36.91 80.16% 0.267 0.7139 0.83
1 Thematic 5078 39.91% 37.23 72.45% -0.035 0.5678 0.398
2 Archipelago 35 34.29% 43.49 97.14% 0.076 0.7415 0.761
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25258 43.26% 34.2 78.58% 0.056 0.4471 0.617
2 Coastline 2835 43.2% 33.96 79.54% 0.057 0.1456 0.355
2 Fragment 849 43.3% 34.03 77.03% 0.46 0.5262 1.202
2 Heart 376 53.91% 30.6 72.07% 0.579 0.8507 0.701
2 Opposite Shores 4847 37.75% 33.89 79.7% -0.188 0.305 0.142
2 Thematic 2567 47.25% 36.24 68.13% -1.197 -0.7288 -0.327
2 Top to Top 777 43.71% 36.47 77.09% -0.797 -0.5147 0.625
3 Archipelago 21 47.62% 39.86 90.48% 0.127 -0.2557 0.258
3 Coastline 99 39.39% 34.42 80.81% 0.691 0.0516 0.635
3 Other 562 34.41% 32.77 83.27% 0.768 -0.3216 0.117
3 Round (Default) 14260 35.92% 35.65 80.9% 0.257 0.5259 0.127
3 Sunrise 118 27.97% 44.42 83.9% 0.028 -0.1914 0.16
3 Thematic 687 48.47% 36.06 70.16% -0.292 -0.5156 -0.682
4 Archipelago 28 21.43% 41.29 89.29% 0.073 -0.7789 -0.31
4 Coastline 71 11.27% 33.94 85.92% -1.256 -1.2481 -0.043
4 Leaf 57 50.88% 32.95 68.42% -0.453 -0.2121 -1.038
4 Other 372 27.57% 33.7 89.78% 0.406 -0.0395 0.861
4 Reverse Snake 4 25.0% 37.75 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 40.33 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 3858 23.32% 51.25 79.91% 0.378 0.4742 -1.116
4 Trapezoid (Default) 11552 28.98% 39.18 82.26% 0.225 0.0878 -0.328
5 Archipelago 23 52.17% 48.17 86.96% 0.315 -0.102 -0.016
5 Coastline 10 20.0% 36.4 100.0% 0.312 -0.2005 0.061
5 Other 229 37.44% 35.82 88.65% -0.067 0.2021 -0.579
5 Thematic 41 19.51% 47.93 90.24% -0.29 -0.3965 -0.716
6 Archipelago 18 22.22% 42.39 100.0% 0.356 -0.1591 0.017
6 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.4398 0.0
6 Other 80 25.0% 33.86 83.75% -0.709 0.1796 -1.1
6 Star 42 21.43% 33.48 90.48% -0.384 0.5109 -0.339
6 Thematic 254 17.39% 48.34 88.98% -0.381 -0.0176 -0.757
6 Two Centers (Default) 290 22.65% 36.58 81.72% -0.195 0.1828 -1.355
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 43.0 0.0% 0.596 -0.244 -0.396
7 Other 4 0.0% 34.25 75.0% -0.499 -1.4349 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5983 31.27 55.11% -2.093 -0.2611 -1.376
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5225 33.34 57.22% -1.619 0.0352 -1.179
All Things Weaken 2030 33.71 55.17% -1.927 0.049 -1.296
Back Against the Wall 5030 32.21 55.49% -2.161 -0.3021 -1.232
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5133 28.56 51.22% -2.472 -0.4971 -1.617
Downward Spiral 6778 29.28 59.18% -2.029 -0.127 -1.372
Erosion of Will 5606 30.06 51.96% -2.345 -0.3015 -1.581
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 827 40.86 84.52% -0.622 -0.0499 -0.09
Memory Fades to Dust 6797 29.39 57.66% -2.036 -0.0566 -1.298
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1891 32.77 57.01% -2.038 -0.1463 -1.36
Promising Farmlands 5403 29.45 53.4% -1.994 0.0449 -1.647
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 576 41.61 90.8% -0.395 0.0463 0.159
Thriving Communities 1906 31.93 54.3% -2.386 -0.4213 -1.411
Tipping Point 2827 25.01 37.32% 0.0 0.489 -2.397
Unnatural Proliferation 2107 35.18 58.23% -1.868 0.038 -1.303
Untended Land Crumbles 1900 31.64 52.47% -2.564 -0.5298 -1.413

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 43746 36.46% 35.07 79.81% -0.089 0.679 -0.217
B 51938 35.75% 36.96 80.42% 0.03 0.7225 -0.004
C 45152 35.99% 35.87 80.61% -0.178 0.3863 -0.187
D 40272 37.08% 34.52 79.89% -0.27 0.4986 -0.031
E 15779 36.88% 40.64 81.98% 0.201 0.8 0.309
F 20941 37.91% 36.97 80.44% -0.036 0.6736 -0.083
G 17735 38.23% 36.13 80.15% 0.107 0.8324 -0.172
H 19724 36.75% 37.46 81.02% 0.183 0.8733 0.014
East 9367 34.05% 43.68 75.52% 0.818 1.4404 -0.877
Northeast 6435 32.22% 45.21 76.92% 0.23 0.9111 0.117
Northwest 5244 31.75% 46.16 76.14% -0.19 0.8766 -0.646
Southeast 1779 28.19% 44.22 80.94% -0.943 -0.215 -0.461
Southwest 1871 29.99% 42.23 79.37% -0.267 0.7038 -0.372
West 8892 34.47% 43.19 74.6% -0.233 0.77 -0.06

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2013 0.0% 26.14 81.77% -1.536 0.4759 1.21
Not Using Events or Tokens 144 51.38% 18.9 65.28% -0.23 -0.0153 -0.434
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5050 9.43% 46.53 93.09% 0.332 0.2383 -0.132
Start of Game Growth 7670 11.29% 47.6 90.43% -0.305 -1.0128 0.347
Unlimited Undo 16354 28.14% 40.29 86.81% 1.021 0.3217 0.529
Using Tokens but Not Events 17547 23.67% 32.13 87.94% 0.311 0.2657 -0.138

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 10123 100.0% 36.47 100.0% 0.104 -0.0298 0.191
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3709 100.0% 32.84 100.0% 0.805 0.8509 0.192
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3229 100.0% 36.53 100.0% -0.014 -0.1343 0.002
Downpour Drenches the World 126 100.0% 37.79 100.0% -0.006 0.3427 0.13
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4103 100.0% 37.13 100.0% 0.238 -0.1832 0.214
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3749 100.0% 37.92 100.0% 0.138 -0.424 -0.405
Finder of Paths Unseen 83 100.0% 37.42 100.0% -0.381 0.0201 -0.473
Fractured Days Split the Sky 738 100.0% 42.93 100.0% 0.227 0.2809 0.049
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 770 100.0% 39.69 100.0% 0.497 0.4887 0.555
Heart of the Wildfire 4576 100.0% 35.39 100.0% -0.012 0.2147 0.146
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 17420 100.0% 40.09 100.0% -0.094 -0.6168 0.203
Lightning's Swift Strike 6137 110.43% 35.95 103.14% 0.009 0.2525 0.073
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 58 29.41% 45.52 87.93% 0.486 -0.3682 -0.454
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 386 44.27% 42.22 80.57% -0.088 -0.6977 0.64
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 601 34.72% 43.63 81.53% 1.053 0.676 0.509
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3497 100.0% 41.35 100.0% -0.167 -0.3846 0.043
Many Minds Move as One 6270 100.0% 36.36 100.0% 0.404 -0.135 -0.092
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8167 100.0% 40.89 100.0% 0.24 -0.0763 0.97
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3113 100.0% 37.57 100.0% 0.159 0.1429 0.125
River Surges in Sunlight 7140 106.45% 39.39 102.17% -0.126 -0.0738 0.253
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 638 37.22% 41.64 78.06% -0.178 0.1797 -0.403
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 88 28.41% 45.16 82.95% -0.283 -0.5134 0.155
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6175 100.0% 37.96 100.0% -0.448 -0.4826 0.014
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3887 110.13% 32.43 102.91% -0.748 -0.2814 -0.199
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 15 33.33% 47.47 80.0% -0.301 -0.203 -0.187
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 42 40.48% 50.69 92.86% 0.203 0.0281 0.203
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 321 37.42% 36.11 81.62% 0.309 0.2492 0.029
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 277 42.03% 40.57 82.67% 0.25 0.4102 -0.135
Shifting Memory of Ages 614 100.0% 35.76 100.0% -0.629 -0.5903 -0.072
Shroud of Silent Mist 582 100.0% 32.82 100.0% -0.584 -0.2596 -0.659
Starlight Seeks its Form 694 100.0% 41.37 100.0% 0.295 0.0907 -0.21
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2745 100.0% 40.17 100.0% -0.321 -0.5073 0.008
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3032 100.0% 37.62 100.0% 0.172 0.2568 0.204
Thunderspeaker 9955 100.0% 39.9 100.0% 0.119 0.0876 -0.067
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1613 100.0% 35.47 100.0% 0.116 0.0721 -0.333
Vital Strength of the Earth 4880 105.28% 32.04 102.11% -0.772 0.023 -0.355
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 72 28.57% 47.56 88.89% 0.502 0.9542 0.772
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 341 38.46% 33.88 72.14% -0.758 0.273 -1.633
Volcano Looming High 1083 100.0% 37.48 100.0% -0.297 -0.2711 0.301

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Prey on the Builders 90.62%
Teeth Gleam from Darkness 94.18%
Terrifying Chase 73.02%
Too Near the Jungle 91.49%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22517 22.6 43.97%
II 67037 31.02 76.93%
III 54785 34.59 90.93%
IV 18509 37.83 99.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9900
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 48851
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 50572
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 18281
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1046
Lose: Adversary condition 8237
Win: Sacrifice victory 437
Lose: Scenario condition 1641
Win: Scenario condition 1676
Lose: Blight pool ran out 19381
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2826

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.103 Win Model: -0.175

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.098 Win Model: 0.191
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 92698 37.02% 36.93 79.72%
2 37602 42.93% 34.31 78.01%
3 15705 36.32% 35.63 80.6%
4 16011 27.64% 41.96 81.87%
5 156 22.08% 31.11 88.46%
6 676 20.83% 40.65 85.36%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)