Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.082 0.4384 0.0
Blitz 0 1169 69.24% 21.53 51.24% -0.478 0.0203 -1.277
Dahan Insurrection 4 1081 40.97% 46.78 66.98% 0.213 0.3331 0.505
Despicable Theft 2 40 75.0% 28.0 57.5% 0.0 0.5077 -0.303
Elemental Invocation 1 47 63.83% 22.49 59.57% -0.982 -0.3728 -0.142
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5012 29.85% 40.81 64.33% -0.07 0.1535 1.012
Powers Long Forgotten 1 556 64.31% 31.21 61.15% -0.541 -0.0615 -0.864
Rituals of Terror 3 456 76.06% 31.1 44.74% -1.129 -1.3549 0.095
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 254 79.53% 35.8 62.6% 0.083 0.2796 0.719
Second Wave 0 2719 59.82% 25.54 67.86% -0.873 -0.282 -0.228
The Great River 3 23 69.57% 25.3 34.78% 0.0 1.6854 -0.162
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 23.67 66.67% 0.1 0.8408 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 340 66.76% 28.35 40.29% -0.373 0.5181 -0.919

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4092 25.11 48.0% -1.922 0.0713 -0.61
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3505 27.87 53.75% -2.221 -0.4459 -0.384
All Things Weaken 1002 23.02 42.22% -1.337 0.7229 -0.727
Back Against the Wall 3464 26.78 50.49% -1.984 -0.049 -0.335
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3872 22.69 46.31% -1.816 0.2639 -0.847
Downward Spiral 19534 20.2 58.23% -2.158 -0.2339 -0.431
Erosion of Will 4047 24.88 47.22% -1.375 0.7162 -0.666
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 318 30.86 81.76% 0.355 0.855 0.689
Memory Fades to Dust 19952 19.51 52.95% -2.395 -0.2847 -0.507
Power Corrodes the Spirit 969 24.41 50.88% -2.29 -0.3417 -0.556
Promising Farmlands 4087 23.61 47.0% -2.154 -0.1444 -0.675
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 198 30.15 85.35% 0.049 0.5191 0.046
Thriving Communities 954 22.17 45.39% -2.534 -0.4682 -0.928
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 0.0 -0.533
Unnatural Proliferation 1001 24.71 44.96% -2.028 -0.0858 -0.814
Untended Land Crumbles 987 22.26 45.49% -2.385 -0.3476 -0.898

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 42766 56.56% 23.63 68.0% -0.379 0.3125 0.035
B 43835 56.73% 24.24 68.53% -0.26 0.4038 -0.09
C 47822 55.84% 25.39 70.07% -0.175 0.261 0.588
D 42870 53.99% 24.92 71.38% 0.034 0.71 0.341
E 4986 58.68% 27.08 68.05% 0.26 0.7522 0.14
F 9279 55.9% 26.96 70.04% -0.469 0.1752 0.042
G 8925 56.67% 26.4 68.82% 0.05 0.6236 -0.067
H 8934 54.62% 27.15 70.96% -0.444 0.1768 0.086
East 5897 53.52% 36.81 64.9% -0.762 -0.1884 -0.035
Northeast 4179 50.38% 38.12 67.38% 0.179 0.7729 0.018
Northwest 3615 48.64% 38.41 68.96% -0.047 0.4828 -0.097
Southeast 402 46.63% 34.71 71.14% -0.139 0.5125 -0.562
Southwest 392 51.92% 30.77 64.8% 0.034 0.9447 -0.419
West 5481 52.42% 36.7 65.54% 0.016 0.775 -0.48

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23613 0.0% 15.09 55.49% -2.783 -0.5903 -2.121
Not Using Events or Tokens 65808 63.32% 19.71 65.25% -0.047 0.1962 -0.592
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5946 21.77% 32.37 89.52% 1.353 0.3184 -0.229
Start of Game Growth 7829 22.1% 31.83 88.71% -0.255 -0.7733 0.618
Unlimited Undo 12914 48.35% 26.86 77.93% 0.676 0.1623 0.283
Using Tokens but Not Events 10837 50.84% 24.36 77.04% -0.028 0.1389 0.3

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.66%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.1%
Favors Called Due 87.09%
Mantle of Dread 84.17%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10364 22.67 8.74%
II 50451 31.1 47.15%
III 56704 34.68 80.79%
IV 23210 37.93 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 906
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 44758
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22990
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22669
Lose: Invader deck ran out 300
Lose: Adversary condition 5951
Win: Sacrifice victory 857
Lose: Scenario condition 1611
Win: Scenario condition 1378
Lose: Blight pool ran out 37908
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1401

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.243 Win Model: 0.077
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 87092 65.16% 22.52 63.36%
2 32654 58.94% 25.34 67.48%
3 10566 46.53% 28.16 74.86%
4 10230 38.73% 32.07 80.85%
5 39 34.29% 30.08 84.62%
6 148 26.35% 29.68 85.81%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-25 02:29:02 (Pacific Time)