Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0% -0.382 -0.4609 0.0
Blitz 0 1221 68.31% 21.23 50.86% -0.31 -0.1637 -1.211
Dahan Insurrection 4 1120 40.61% 46.69 67.14% 0.806 0.5994 0.545
Despicable Theft 2 46 67.39% 27.72 56.52% 0.074 0.7571 -0.311
Elemental Invocation 1 56 64.29% 21.93 60.71% -0.186 0.5458 -0.128
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5142 29.8% 40.57 64.27% 0.746 0.1396 1.058
Powers Long Forgotten 1 573 63.97% 30.96 60.91% 0.164 0.6519 -0.65
Rituals of Terror 3 472 75.38% 30.73 43.64% -1.231 -1.1261 0.151
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 257 78.6% 35.38 61.87% -1.116 -0.1237 0.739
Second Wave 0 2786 59.79% 25.37 67.3% -0.327 -0.2649 -0.255
The Great River 3 25 64.0% 23.28 32.0% -0.845 0.5037 -0.165
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.307 0.8698 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 350 66.57% 28.25 40.57% -0.515 0.6941 -0.881

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 86363 64.57% 21.83 63.01% 0.786 0.9955 0.535
1 Thematic 3983 69.04% 30.54 54.56% 0.535 1.1338 0.872
2 Archipelago 4 50.0% 42.5 75.0% 0.0 0.3569 0.505
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24280 59.55% 24.14 66.05% 0.239 0.3986 1.179
2 Coastline 2522 56.65% 24.68 67.37% 0.515 0.5754 -0.098
2 Fragment 794 62.05% 22.49 62.09% 0.609 0.5458 0.096
2 Heart 298 64.37% 19.94 60.74% -0.225 -0.4633 -0.434
2 Opposite Shores 3690 53.43% 25.7 72.01% 0.523 0.6564 -0.122
2 Thematic 1797 56.45% 35.24 61.1% 0.085 0.7209 0.486
2 Top to Top 568 61.08% 25.07 66.9% 0.585 0.6252 0.663
3 Archipelago 5 40.0% 30.8 60.0% 0.0 -1.0866 0.0
3 Coastline 44 47.22% 27.34 59.09% 0.418 -0.0803 0.74
3 Other 325 48.47% 22.71 70.15% 0.144 0.254 0.14
3 Round (Default) 9980 46.15% 27.54 75.17% 0.643 0.6014 0.304
3 Sunrise 49 48.84% 28.69 81.63% 0.0 0.1962 -0.032
3 Thematic 540 48.89% 37.38 62.04% -0.217 -0.1807 -0.926
4 Archipelago 7 66.67% 19.57 57.14% -0.588 -0.8022 0.0
4 Coastline 18 22.22% 26.22 88.89% 0.0 0.1222 0.0
4 Leaf 48 39.53% 24.08 87.5% 0.62 0.2452 -0.146
4 Other 244 40.64% 27.07 75.0% -0.649 -1.4986 -0.061
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.3842 0.0
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.0206 0.0
4 Thematic 2005 36.65% 41.56 77.76% -0.116 -0.1328 -1.182
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8239 39.02% 29.3 80.23% -0.051 -0.2379 -0.364
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.0429 0.0
5 Other 90 34.88% 33.7 90.0% 1.312 0.8034 0.368
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.33 0.488
6 Archipelago 5 20.0% 20.2 80.0% -0.361 -0.666 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 12.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6437 0.0
6 Other 15 20.0% 26.47 86.67% -0.93 -1.3247 0.0
6 Star 8 37.5% 34.63 62.5% -1.261 -0.7861 0.0
6 Thematic 44 40.91% 33.11 65.91% -1.097 -0.6981 -1.51
6 Two Centers (Default) 142 14.08% 23.68 83.1% -0.21 -0.1664 -1.556
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5893 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4165 25.05 48.02% 0.129 0.3997 -0.529
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3568 27.82 53.81% 0.365 0.4036 -0.294
All Things Weaken 1055 23.02 42.65% 0.121 0.582 -0.589
Attenuated Essence 14 18.0 42.86% -0.046 0.1599 0.08
Back Against the Wall 3521 26.68 50.5% -0.105 0.0567 -0.24
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 13.83 33.33% 0.049 0.4633 -0.197
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 25.77 53.85% 0.219 0.5237 -0.163
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3939 22.65 46.41% 0.274 0.8011 -0.754
Downward Spiral 20173 20.09 57.88% 0.201 0.5534 -0.355
Erosion of Will 4130 24.78 47.31% 0.004 0.4126 -0.578
Intensifying Exploitation 12 14.83 41.67% -0.151 0.236 -0.48
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 334 30.58 81.44% 0.844 0.3187 0.708
Memory Fades to Dust 20624 19.36 52.58% -0.109 0.3725 -0.423
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1012 24.21 50.79% 0.024 0.3287 -0.514
Promising Farmlands 4158 23.5 46.97% -0.192 0.3938 -0.578
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 15.07 26.67% -0.621 -0.4419 -0.163
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 24.73 53.33% 0.332 0.8655 -0.545
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 210 29.82 85.24% 0.814 0.1358 0.103
The Border of Life and Death 4 28.5 100.0% 0.93 0.8005 0.0
Thriving Communities 996 22.15 45.78% 0.189 0.6819 -0.844
Thriving Crops 6 7.83 33.33% -0.41 -0.3221 0.0
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 -0.1422 -0.456
Unnatural Proliferation 1048 24.46 45.04% -0.015 0.2818 -0.759
Untended Land Crumbles 1023 22.07 45.16% -0.604 -0.2463 -0.86

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 44537 56.12% 23.22 66.97% -0.308 0.5324 0.035
B 45568 56.39% 23.84 67.57% -0.188 0.5907 -0.066
C 49521 55.47% 25.05 69.31% 0.124 0.7776 0.572
D 44559 53.6% 24.53 70.44% 0.015 0.8144 0.355
E 5320 57.9% 26.59 67.46% 0.002 0.631 0.096
F 9715 55.39% 26.54 69.2% -0.317 0.402 0.059
G 9352 56.16% 26.09 68.31% 0.183 0.9247 -0.069
H 9381 54.13% 26.76 70.26% 0.149 0.7967 0.095
East 6058 53.12% 36.42 64.25% -0.591 0.0136 -0.082
Northeast 4304 49.96% 37.67 66.66% -0.054 0.8265 0.031
Northwest 3696 48.39% 38.02 68.4% -0.063 0.6097 -0.088
Southeast 408 46.44% 34.46 70.59% 0.477 1.1137 -0.578
Southwest 400 51.88% 30.36 63.75% -0.573 0.5915 -0.398
West 5597 52.23% 36.39 65.0% -0.006 0.9585 -0.515

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 24887 0.0% 14.71 54.1% -0.927 -0.0438 -2.033
Not Using Events or Tokens 69289 62.64% 19.34 63.97% -0.326 0.0056 -0.607
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6111 21.77% 32.06 88.79% 0.364 -0.1712 -0.357
Start of Game Growth 8039 22.09% 31.52 88.02% 0.819 0.4882 0.651
Unlimited Undo 13357 48.18% 26.51 76.95% -0.081 -0.1033 0.221
Using Tokens but Not Events 11196 50.65% 24.09 76.15% -0.348 -0.4016 0.342

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7433 100.0% 28.26 100.0% 0.225 0.0657 0.144
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5942 100.0% 27.89 100.0% -0.195 -0.0736 1.178
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1707 100.0% 27.7 100.0% 0.204 0.0361 -0.185
Downpour Drenches the World 55 100.0% 25.58 100.0% 0.7 0.8787 -0.789
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 26 100.0% 18.23 100.0% 0.316 -0.4058 -0.286
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2495 100.0% 29.55 100.0% 0.013 -0.5755 0.185
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1977 100.0% 29.6 100.0% 0.189 -0.2821 0.315
Finder of Paths Unseen 18 100.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.836 1.5302 -0.504
Fractured Days Split the Sky 138 100.0% 27.95 100.0% -0.644 0.0405 -0.098
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 93 100.0% 29.46 100.0% 0.147 0.0461 -0.145
Heart of the Wildfire 3451 100.0% 28.25 100.0% -0.739 -0.4945 -0.334
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4800 100.0% 32.16 100.0% 0.472 0.0222 -0.056
Lightning's Swift Strike 11111 100.85% 23.82 100.51% -0.27 -0.0665 0.29
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 11 72.73% 26.18 54.55% -0.197 -0.8939 -0.388
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 66 50.77% 26.18 71.21% -0.272 -0.5118 0.203
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 111 44.95% 24.62 70.27% -1.281 -1.4412 -0.002
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 335 100.0% 31.59 100.0% 0.237 0.0918 -0.637
Many Minds Move as One 434 100.0% 31.32 100.0% 0.999 0.7781 0.478
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8100 100.0% 34.22 100.0% 0.536 0.5264 1.663
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1661 100.0% 27.74 100.0% 0.44 0.2979 0.167
River Surges in Sunlight 11134 100.61% 25.57 100.46% -0.495 -0.4919 0.488
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 127 51.28% 24.54 66.93% -0.299 -0.0292 -0.419
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 20 38.89% 22.35 55.0% -0.489 -0.6185 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3868 100.0% 32.99 100.0% 0.043 -0.1702 -0.313
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4022 100.1% 32.26 100.0% -0.072 -0.2007 0.325
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 5 20.0% 35.4 100.0% 0.72 0.3568 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 128 100.0% 26.13 100.0% -0.006 0.4009 -0.097
Shroud of Silent Mist 195 100.0% 25.14 100.0% 0.786 1.1012 -0.594
Starlight Seeks its Form 137 100.0% 28.69 100.0% 0.165 -0.1077 -0.165
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 851 100.0% 28.45 100.0% 0.649 0.1542 0.08
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1642 100.0% 30.79 100.0% 0.185 0.2153 0.603
Thunderspeaker 6302 100.05% 29.1 100.02% 0.08 0.0606 0.104
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 7 57.14% 33.86 85.71% 1.023 0.96 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 634 100.0% 27.2 100.0% -1.217 -1.1561 0.229
Vital Strength of the Earth 9599 100.37% 22.89 100.3% -0.272 0.2803 -0.391
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 14 42.86% 18.57 57.14% -0.769 -0.513 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 64 54.1% 24.02 64.06% -0.357 0.5393 0.236
Volcano Looming High 190 100.0% 25.39 100.0% -0.994 -0.9837 -0.745

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.95%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.21%
Favors Called Due 87.22%
Mantle of Dread 84.34%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12080 21.03 7.58%
II 52054 31.04 46.9%
III 58247 34.74 80.73%
IV 23783 38.02 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 916
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 45938
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23605
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 23230
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1828
Lose: Invader deck ran out 313
Lose: Adversary condition 6029
Win: Sacrifice victory 878
Lose: Scenario condition 1637
Win: Scenario condition 1411
Lose: Blight pool ran out 38944
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1435

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.694 Win Model: -0.069

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.16 Win Model: 0.372
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 90402 64.81% 22.22 62.63%
2 33972 58.56% 24.89 66.41%
3 10934 46.29% 27.89 74.39%
4 10577 38.55% 31.55 79.75%
5 63 35.59% 32.33 88.89%
6 216 21.3% 26.14 79.17%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)