Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1608 66.09% 22.91 -0.064 55.72% -0.712 -0.1464
Dahan Insurrection 4 1814 40.55% 47.66 -0.024 66.43% -0.632 -0.2318
Despicable Theft 2 82 56.1% 31.0 -0.024 67.07% -0.589 -0.3153
Elemental Invocation 1 130 56.59% 28.74 0.008 71.54% -0.167 0.3359
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7825 26.02% 41.89 0.015 69.51% -0.088 0.2773
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1006 62.36% 31.91 -0.043 62.52% -0.51 -0.0634
Rituals of Terror 3 654 73.79% 31.56 -0.106 46.64% -1.06 -0.4148
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 411 80.05% 34.91 -0.036 59.61% -0.32 0.3267
Second Wave 0 4885 58.49% 26.25 -0.024 68.45% -0.709 -0.2796
The Great River 3 87 66.67% 26.43 -0.154 39.08% -1.975 -0.5015
Ward the Shores 2 592 69.43% 28.59 -0.117 44.26% -1.256 -0.224

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 80419 63.05% 23.35 -0.007 65.18% -0.688 -0.6017
1 Thematic 4090 67.57% 31.02 -0.039 55.89% -0.809 -0.5321
2 Archipelago 11 45.45% 45.55 0.111 90.91% 0.684 0.6913
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 23132 58.7% 25.72 -0.0 68.39% -0.343 -0.3169
2 Coastline 2633 55.63% 26.81 -0.006 66.81% -0.386 -0.4103
2 Fragment 719 62.15% 24.4 -0.018 64.67% -0.566 -0.3431
2 Heart 285 59.92% 21.39 -0.023 65.61% -0.763 -0.6628
2 Opposite Shores 3866 50.08% 27.12 0.017 74.83% -0.305 -0.2395
2 Thematic 1817 58.11% 35.04 -0.02 62.03% -0.42 -0.4869
2 Top to Top 540 62.32% 26.46 -0.001 66.48% -0.228 -0.2973
3 Archipelago 3 66.67% 23.33 -0.165 33.33% -0.656 0.1487
3 Coastline 56 54.9% 32.13 -0.025 58.93% 0.026 -0.1246
3 Other 342 48.3% 25.43 0.009 75.44% -0.216 -0.0434
3 Round (Default) 10140 47.02% 29.11 0.017 75.36% 0.059 0.0197
3 Sunrise 47 46.51% 27.74 0.052 85.11% 0.512 0.2519
3 Thematic 537 53.45% 36.86 -0.033 61.45% -0.349 -0.7147
4 Archipelago 14 78.57% 22.29 -0.21 21.43% -1.428 -0.88
4 Coastline 21 23.81% 29.33 0.039 85.71% 0.117 0.2366
4 Leaf 42 36.84% 28.95 0.061 88.1% 0.718 0.7898
4 Other 256 41.39% 30.36 0.005 77.73% 0.133 0.0639
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 0.077 100.0% 0.5 -0.3022
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 0.151 100.0% 0.599 0.7246
4 Thematic 2078 36.59% 43.2 0.014 77.67% 0.314 -0.6828
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8322 39.18% 30.63 0.029 80.94% 0.481 0.4895
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 0.138 100.0% 0.254 1.4136
5 Other 59 46.55% 36.83 0.08 89.83% 1.336 0.8749
5 Thematic 15 26.67% 43.07 0.097 93.33% 1.259 -1.1327
6 Other 1 0.0% 40.0 0.05 100.0% 0.011 -0.1662

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4355 26.25 -0.11 48.82% -2.307 -0.2381
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3762 28.71 -0.084 54.57% -2.069 -0.1557
All Things Weaken 1481 25.81 -0.129 45.24% -2.513 -0.3534
Back Against the Wall 3633 27.68 -0.104 50.51% -2.258 -0.1706
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4075 23.57 -0.119 47.09% -2.418 -0.1955
Downward Spiral 17318 20.74 -0.076 58.47% -2.211 -0.1897
Erosion of Will 4260 25.86 -0.113 48.62% -2.362 -0.154
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 479 31.65 0.042 82.46% -0.714 -0.0354
Memory Fades to Dust 17626 20.09 -0.106 52.89% -2.463 -0.2479
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1483 26.69 -0.088 53.81% -2.13 -0.1093
Promising Farmlands 4231 24.55 -0.116 48.03% -2.37 -0.1619
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 331 32.35 0.058 85.2% -0.397 0.0147
Thriving Communities 1435 25.02 -0.109 49.41% -2.312 -0.2238
Tipping Point 2284 24.68 -0.107 49.52% -2.283 -0.0579
Unnatural Proliferation 1541 27.98 -0.099 50.68% -2.167 -0.0863
Untended Land Crumbles 1497 25.92 -0.101 50.84% -2.243 -0.1406

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 25361 59.83% 22.98 -0.011 65.57% 0.118 -0.5694
B 25765 61.1% 23.5 -0.009 65.96% 0.17 -0.6136
C 30409 58.26% 25.98 0.012 69.24% 0.382 -0.6306
D 25439 56.72% 24.59 0.012 69.79% 0.363 -0.4139
E 4765 55.2% 30.14 0.02 71.52% 0.517 -0.3777
F 6557 58.45% 27.05 0.002 68.43% 0.267 -0.5743
G 6089 58.14% 27.35 -0.001 67.79% 0.226 -0.6064
H 6036 56.13% 27.43 0.009 70.33% 0.337 -0.5025
East 1786 60.03% 35.52 -0.031 60.69% -0.078 -0.6545
Northeast 2075 56.62% 36.31 -0.027 61.73% -0.084 -0.609
Northwest 1782 55.08% 36.58 -0.014 65.26% 0.07 -0.5253
Southeast 298 47.64% 36.3 0.02 72.82% 0.316 -0.3127
Southwest 260 65.89% 25.53 -0.087 48.46% -0.654 -0.853
West 1921 55.24% 36.27 -0.022 63.61% -0.056 -0.3832

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20115 0.0% 15.45 -0.084 56.87% -2.427 -0.3742
Not Using Events or Tokens 54409 63.71% 19.73 -0.016 65.32% -0.227 -0.0125
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5905 19.37% 33.44 0.074 90.4% 0.87 0.184
Start of Game Growth 7701 21.17% 33.02 0.076 89.22% 0.865 0.3959
Unlimited Undo 12711 47.93% 28.0 0.036 78.55% 0.318 -0.1048
Using Tokens but Not Events 11940 46.16% 25.1 0.038 79.68% 0.127 0.0757

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 6884 43.29% 29.41 0.028 78.18% 0.076 0.1803
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5573 59.83% 28.23 0.001 71.42% -0.098 0.0994
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1849 46.85% 29.38 0.008 74.63% -0.112 -0.2259
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2567 40.91% 30.97 0.039 81.18% 0.25 -0.154
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2146 44.35% 30.59 0.015 75.54% -0.045 -0.3501
Fractured Days Split the Sky 555 43.68% 34.6 0.022 75.86% 0.039 0.3872
Heart of the Wildfire 3489 61.48% 29.09 -0.013 67.87% -0.148 0.1705
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5156 47.0% 33.14 0.015 74.09% 0.037 -0.3058
Lightning's Swift Strike 10833 46.97% 26.33 0.008 73.84% -0.161 0.0648
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 925 47.56% 33.2 0.017 75.57% 0.105 -0.1815
Many Minds Move as One 687 45.96% 33.39 0.041 81.22% 0.429 -0.1041
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7640 45.64% 35.09 0.046 79.63% 0.524 0.3
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1807 47.63% 29.0 0.003 72.72% -0.206 -0.1919
River Surges in Sunlight 10336 47.12% 27.47 0.001 72.67% -0.229 -0.1087
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3921 46.93% 34.0 0.016 74.93% 0.078 0.1808
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4089 44.59% 33.29 0.014 75.4% -0.054 -0.1659
Shifting Memory of Ages 133 60.77% 31.16 0.018 72.18% 0.239 0.3633
Shroud of Silent Mist 331 53.5% 28.19 0.017 75.83% -0.069 -0.0127
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1210 51.71% 31.57 0.008 71.82% 0.028 -0.0316
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1798 44.61% 33.39 0.019 75.64% 0.056 0.2169
Thunderspeaker 5821 48.89% 30.02 0.01 73.78% -0.078 -0.054
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 935 59.12% 28.88 -0.024 65.88% -0.388 -0.4155
Vital Strength of the Earth 8502 44.44% 24.27 -0.002 72.48% -0.349 0.4954
Volcano Looming High 399 53.4% 30.9 0.004 72.18% -0.08 -0.0693

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.67%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.05%
Favors Called Due 87.5%
Mantle of Dread 85.39%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10293 22.37 9.09%
II 48292 30.88 47.67%
III 56627 34.39 81.72%
IV 24241 37.55 99.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 689
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32041
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15437
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17100
Lose: Invader deck ran out 323
Lose: Adversary condition 6685
Win: Sacrifice victory 785
Lose: Scenario condition 1697
Win: Scenario condition 1467
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35118
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1318

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.192 Win Model: -0.165

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.103
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 84526 63.31% 23.73 64.74%
2 33040 57.5% 26.45 68.57%
3 11115 47.38% 29.36 74.61%
4 10772 38.72% 33.09 80.26%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.08 Win Model: -0.754
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 119347 27.37 69.76%
Power Progression 20106 14.72 55.0%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)