Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1473 65.67% 22.73 -0.063 55.53% -0.718 -0.1368
Dahan Insurrection 4 1651 41.1% 47.72 -0.022 66.08% -0.591 -0.1873
Despicable Theft 2 36 58.33% 30.72 -0.011 69.44% -0.43 -0.0806
Elemental Invocation 1 91 48.89% 30.31 0.017 74.73% -0.174 0.1987
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7162 25.66% 41.58 0.014 69.23% -0.094 0.2709
Powers Long Forgotten 1 954 62.2% 32.05 -0.039 63.1% -0.478 -0.0365
Rituals of Terror 3 598 73.42% 31.45 -0.109 45.82% -1.094 -0.46
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 381 81.63% 34.53 -0.038 58.53% -0.325 0.3161
Second Wave 0 4544 59.2% 26.32 -0.022 68.38% -0.681 -0.2573
The Great River 3 68 66.18% 26.85 -0.143 41.18% -1.843 -0.4218
Ward the Shores 2 545 68.42% 28.82 -0.115 44.4% -1.237 -0.1959

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 72489 63.35% 23.27 -0.007 64.94% -0.728 -0.4006
1 Thematic 3737 67.58% 31.16 -0.038 55.63% -0.874 -0.4007
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 21043 58.94% 25.62 -0.001 67.98% -0.395 -0.1982
2 Coastline 2347 56.53% 26.73 -0.005 66.68% -0.411 -0.2604
2 Fragment 665 61.9% 24.54 -0.019 64.36% -0.637 -0.2328
2 Heart 254 63.59% 20.98 -0.027 63.78% -0.791 -0.4787
2 Opposite Shores 3447 50.51% 27.26 0.017 74.35% -0.351 -0.1275
2 Thematic 1673 58.99% 34.73 -0.021 61.51% -0.489 -0.4606
2 Top to Top 491 62.9% 26.48 -0.0 66.4% -0.261 -0.1204
3 Coastline 49 55.56% 32.86 -0.024 59.18% -0.036 -0.0829
3 Other 311 48.53% 25.05 0.009 75.24% -0.251 0.1873
3 Round (Default) 9259 47.14% 29.03 0.017 75.12% 0.012 0.0697
3 Sunrise 41 47.5% 28.24 0.061 85.37% 0.623 0.4261
3 Thematic 499 52.3% 36.94 -0.032 61.52% -0.419 -0.7805
4 Coastline 15 26.67% 28.67 0.009 80.0% -0.356 -0.1851
4 Leaf 38 34.29% 28.89 0.053 86.84% 0.457 0.5199
4 Other 229 40.0% 30.98 0.013 79.48% 0.219 0.3505
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 0.076 100.0% 0.473 -0.3073
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 0.151 100.0% 0.583 0.7384
4 Thematic 1940 36.78% 43.27 0.01 76.75% 0.188 -0.8723
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7580 39.34% 30.75 0.03 81.02% 0.477 0.5155
5 Other 50 40.82% 36.74 0.091 92.0% 1.477 1.2782
5 Thematic 12 25.0% 46.67 0.118 100.0% 1.329 -1.6273

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4013 26.17 -0.11 48.69% -2.304 -0.2334
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3432 28.49 -0.085 54.25% -2.086 -0.1645
All Things Weaken 1189 25.83 -0.128 45.0% -2.51 -0.3567
Back Against the Wall 3335 27.63 -0.104 50.22% -2.259 -0.1625
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3721 23.54 -0.119 47.08% -2.415 -0.189
Downward Spiral 15977 20.7 -0.078 57.96% -2.221 -0.202
Erosion of Will 3908 25.88 -0.112 48.59% -2.351 -0.1408
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 396 32.0 0.045 82.83% -0.639 0.0546
Memory Fades to Dust 16128 20.05 -0.106 52.57% -2.462 -0.2466
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1198 26.35 -0.088 53.76% -2.15 -0.1332
Promising Farmlands 3890 24.43 -0.116 47.69% -2.374 -0.1609
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 270 32.76 0.057 84.44% -0.403 0.0268
Thriving Communities 1150 24.93 -0.108 49.48% -2.314 -0.2178
Tipping Point 2283 24.68 -0.105 49.5% -2.271 -0.0501
Unnatural Proliferation 1231 27.56 -0.102 49.72% -2.202 -0.1157
Untended Land Crumbles 1208 26.05 -0.101 50.66% -2.24 -0.1434

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 23203 60.03% 22.92 -0.01 65.42% 0.121 -0.9809
B 23506 60.98% 23.54 -0.007 66.14% 0.184 -1.0125
C 27691 58.59% 25.96 0.012 68.95% 0.384 -1.0444
D 23303 56.74% 24.59 0.012 69.56% 0.358 -0.8331
E 3926 55.71% 30.25 0.02 71.14% 0.536 -0.7628
F 5661 59.42% 26.97 0.002 68.15% 0.286 -0.9682
G 5252 58.75% 27.26 -0.004 66.76% 0.201 -1.0409
H 5209 56.45% 27.45 0.008 69.74% 0.323 -0.9339
East 1658 60.07% 35.44 -0.033 60.01% -0.068 -1.0275
Northeast 1925 56.76% 36.14 -0.027 61.4% -0.049 -0.9504
Northwest 1680 55.29% 36.84 -0.012 65.12% 0.128 -0.8466
Southeast 254 48.41% 36.0 0.015 71.65% 0.282 -0.7222
Southwest 209 63.46% 26.61 -0.075 51.67% -0.542 -1.1417
West 1789 55.76% 36.12 -0.025 62.66% -0.046 -0.746

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 18309 0.0% 15.54 -0.081 57.19% -2.397 -0.3483
Not Using Events or Tokens 49425 64.07% 19.71 -0.016 65.15% -0.225 -0.0042
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5439 19.94% 33.55 0.074 90.11% 0.859 0.1543
Start of Game Growth 7082 21.31% 33.15 0.076 89.04% 0.851 0.399
Unlimited Undo 11461 47.83% 28.16 0.036 78.39% 0.309 -0.1078
Using Tokens but Not Events 10861 46.98% 24.99 0.037 79.11% 0.127 0.0755

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 6361 43.24% 29.59 0.029 77.94% 0.072 0.2081
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5144 59.74% 28.06 -0.0 71.01% -0.14 0.0909
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1652 46.39% 29.38 0.006 74.03% -0.157 -0.2437
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2280 41.37% 31.2 0.038 80.57% 0.238 -0.1324
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1906 43.91% 30.72 0.02 76.44% -0.001 -0.2562
Fractured Days Split the Sky 483 44.93% 34.07 0.021 74.95% 0.021 0.3829
Heart of the Wildfire 3295 61.42% 29.13 -0.013 67.86% -0.149 0.2003
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4796 46.79% 33.19 0.015 73.85% 0.019 -0.2829
Lightning's Swift Strike 9838 47.23% 26.24 0.009 73.76% -0.161 0.1008
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 657 50.53% 32.89 0.012 73.97% 0.044 -0.2453
Many Minds Move as One 588 46.31% 33.65 0.045 81.8% 0.479 -0.0478
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7037 45.68% 35.2 0.046 79.34% 0.513 0.3169
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1611 48.35% 29.16 0.004 72.44% -0.2 -0.1557
River Surges in Sunlight 9479 47.43% 27.53 0.002 72.59% -0.235 -0.0823
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3692 47.2% 33.95 0.016 74.7% 0.064 0.2082
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3863 44.82% 33.27 0.014 75.15% -0.057 -0.1288
Shroud of Silent Mist 132 53.03% 28.76 0.042 81.06% 0.231 0.2081
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1063 51.66% 31.36 0.005 70.84% -0.029 -0.0498
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1616 44.71% 33.69 0.021 75.68% 0.089 0.2981
Thunderspeaker 5452 49.28% 30.02 0.009 73.39% -0.098 -0.0442
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 772 60.34% 28.87 -0.016 66.97% -0.288 -0.2748
Vital Strength of the Earth 7782 44.77% 24.28 -0.002 72.14% -0.366 0.5025
Volcano Looming High 271 56.13% 30.61 0.005 71.59% -0.028 -0.0564

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.71%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.12%
Favors Called Due 87.58%
Mantle of Dread 85.31%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9474 22.33 8.89%
II 43926 30.75 47.68%
III 51053 34.25 81.58%
IV 21723 37.47 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 595
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27505
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13428
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14657
Lose: Invader deck ran out 281
Lose: Adversary condition 6105
Win: Sacrifice victory 705
Lose: Scenario condition 1556
Win: Scenario condition 1333
Lose: Blight pool ran out 31991
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1227

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.177 Win Model: -0.166

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.093
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 76231 63.59% 23.66 64.49%
2 29953 57.9% 26.36 68.13%
3 10159 47.45% 29.3 74.4%
4 9833 38.76% 33.26 80.24%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.079 Win Model: -0.755
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 107929 27.32 69.45%
Power Progression 18247 14.74 55.12%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)