Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.06 -0.3864 0.0
Blitz 0 1177 69.28% 21.5 51.23% -0.986 -0.5291 -1.283
Dahan Insurrection 4 1091 40.69% 46.82 67.19% 0.227 0.2473 0.495
Despicable Theft 2 44 70.45% 28.98 59.09% -0.153 0.3597 -0.3
Elemental Invocation 1 50 66.0% 22.34 62.0% -0.084 0.6153 -0.134
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5042 29.85% 40.77 64.34% 0.101 0.1424 1.004
Powers Long Forgotten 1 559 64.5% 31.27 61.18% 0.201 0.7624 -0.676
Rituals of Terror 3 456 76.06% 31.1 44.74% -1.325 -1.6123 0.094
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 254 79.53% 35.8 62.6% 0.039 0.4691 0.704
Second Wave 0 2736 59.85% 25.53 67.69% -1.308 -0.8464 -0.256
The Great River 3 23 69.57% 25.3 34.78% 0.0 1.7665 -0.167
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 23.67 66.67% 0.157 0.9848 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 342 66.67% 28.33 40.35% -0.164 0.5802 -0.931

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 83894 64.96% 22.13 63.74% 0.457 1.0071 0.316
1 Thematic 3909 69.37% 30.63 54.8% -0.169 0.829 0.647
2 Archipelago 4 50.0% 42.5 75.0% 0.0 0.6175 0.503
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 23468 60.02% 24.6 67.22% 0.151 0.561 1.076
2 Coastline 2468 57.04% 24.96 67.91% 0.039 0.1751 -0.209
2 Fragment 772 62.27% 22.82 62.44% 0.217 0.2119 0.045
2 Heart 291 64.73% 20.26 61.86% 0.103 0.5778 -0.263
2 Opposite Shores 3567 53.19% 26.07 73.0% 0.961 1.3149 -0.271
2 Thematic 1767 56.64% 35.46 61.57% -0.933 -0.0032 0.328
2 Top to Top 549 61.7% 25.54 67.58% 0.308 0.435 0.598
3 Archipelago 5 40.0% 30.8 60.0% -0.234 -0.0556 0.0
3 Coastline 43 48.57% 27.42 58.14% 0.067 -0.3492 0.744
3 Other 312 49.6% 23.11 71.15% -1.265 -1.9837 0.117
3 Round (Default) 9725 46.35% 27.8 75.66% 0.889 1.0821 0.335
3 Sunrise 49 48.84% 28.69 81.63% 0.0 0.1488 -0.085
3 Thematic 527 49.72% 37.89 62.81% 0.454 0.4688 -0.972
4 Archipelago 5 80.0% 27.4 80.0% 0.0 -0.4195 0.0
4 Coastline 18 22.22% 26.22 88.89% 0.026 -0.0463 0.0
4 Leaf 42 35.14% 25.76 85.71% -0.735 -0.831 -0.132
4 Other 230 38.57% 28.23 77.83% -0.441 -1.057 -0.022
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.0
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.0 0.5654 0.0
4 Thematic 1970 36.81% 42.01 78.48% 0.345 0.6273 -1.104
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8014 39.39% 29.74 81.42% 0.398 0.5861 -0.097
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3838 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.0 0.1073 0.0
5 Other 77 32.88% 32.31 88.31% 0.553 -0.0776 0.43
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.9744 0.48
6 Archipelago 4 25.0% 19.0 75.0% -0.889 -0.9592 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 12.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.9494 0.0
6 Other 14 21.43% 27.21 92.86% 0.571 0.3289 0.0
6 Star 4 25.0% 40.5 100.0% 0.015 0.5611 0.0
6 Thematic 42 40.48% 34.69 69.05% -0.526 -0.4803 -1.124
6 Two Centers (Default) 108 15.74% 26.69 92.59% -0.153 0.3098 -1.386
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.221 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4109 25.08 47.94% -2.215 -0.4848 -0.618
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3527 27.88 53.87% -1.279 0.297 -0.386
All Things Weaken 1019 23.19 42.69% -0.887 0.9911 -0.712
Back Against the Wall 3476 26.8 50.55% -1.743 -0.1068 -0.318
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3892 22.73 46.48% -1.148 0.6954 -0.826
Downward Spiral 19734 20.21 58.16% -1.863 -0.1649 -0.429
Erosion of Will 4064 24.87 47.22% -1.395 0.505 -0.691
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 321 30.86 81.93% 0.322 0.8226 0.681
Memory Fades to Dust 20153 19.5 52.9% -2.13 -0.2538 -0.516
Power Corrodes the Spirit 979 24.32 50.66% -1.881 -0.1759 -0.566
Promising Farmlands 4105 23.59 47.04% -2.05 -0.1746 -0.687
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 205 30.1 85.85% 0.377 0.5868 0.036
Thriving Communities 967 22.19 45.71% -2.099 -0.2288 -0.937
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 0.0 -0.543
Unnatural Proliferation 1011 24.73 45.1% -1.734 0.0201 -0.83
Untended Land Crumbles 997 22.23 45.34% -2.218 -0.4041 -0.911

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 43149 56.6% 23.61 67.96% -0.365 0.4128 0.038
B 44198 56.73% 24.23 68.56% 0.038 0.7417 -0.086
C 48239 55.83% 25.38 70.07% 0.003 0.5308 0.588
D 43223 53.97% 24.9 71.36% 0.144 0.8793 0.359
E 5054 58.44% 27.06 68.28% 0.263 0.8466 0.135
F 9382 55.81% 26.94 70.11% -0.294 0.413 0.047
G 9019 56.59% 26.4 68.99% 0.489 1.1313 -0.075
H 9052 54.54% 27.13 71.06% 0.07 0.7154 0.085
East 5924 53.49% 36.78 64.87% -0.658 -0.0663 -0.035
Northeast 4201 50.35% 38.08 67.34% 0.47 1.1467 0.02
Northwest 3637 48.64% 38.33 68.85% -0.593 -0.1553 -0.096
Southeast 404 46.65% 34.7 71.04% 0.0 0.6635 -0.6
Southwest 394 51.91% 30.77 64.72% 0.0 1.1714 -0.426
West 5509 52.42% 36.65 65.46% -0.048 0.7696 -0.479

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23873 0.0% 15.09 55.51% -2.231 -0.1555 -2.12
Not Using Events or Tokens 66588 63.36% 19.71 65.19% -0.265 -0.0937 -0.606
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5987 21.65% 32.38 89.53% 1.644 0.5853 -0.204
Start of Game Growth 7880 21.98% 31.81 88.65% -0.395 -0.8173 0.585
Unlimited Undo 13011 48.39% 26.85 77.91% 0.382 -0.0338 0.306
Using Tokens but Not Events 10913 50.79% 24.35 77.02% -0.291 -0.1751 0.312

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7221 100.0% 28.63 100.0% 0.634 0.4552 0.176
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5803 100.0% 28.19 100.0% 0.52 0.5347 1.207
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1650 100.0% 28.12 100.0% 0.556 0.3108 -0.292
Downpour Drenches the World 29 100.0% 28.07 100.0% 0.257 0.6446 -0.585
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 1 100.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.046 0.2812 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2414 100.0% 29.89 100.0% 0.083 -0.3906 0.083
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1920 100.0% 29.9 100.0% 0.754 0.3071 0.236
Finder of Paths Unseen 11 100.0% 24.73 100.0% -0.284 0.0794 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 131 100.0% 28.58 100.0% -0.189 -0.0856 -0.19
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 85 100.0% 29.84 100.0% 0.239 0.1742 -0.114
Heart of the Wildfire 3395 100.0% 28.52 100.0% -0.012 0.2469 -0.402
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4740 100.0% 32.32 100.0% 0.705 0.1219 -0.143
Lightning's Swift Strike 10697 100.82% 24.34 100.44% 0.07 0.3374 0.176
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 8 75.0% 26.63 62.5% -0.325 -1.1392 -0.288
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 64 50.79% 26.13 71.88% 0.0 -0.5423 0.135
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 103 45.54% 26.17 74.76% -0.945 -1.4226 -0.016
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 317 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.812 -0.9335 -0.73
Many Minds Move as One 415 100.0% 31.7 100.0% -0.398 -1.0214 0.381
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7910 100.0% 34.58 100.0% 0.742 0.6145 1.649
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1617 100.0% 28.08 100.0% -0.278 -0.3614 0.075
River Surges in Sunlight 10747 100.59% 26.14 100.39% -0.068 -0.2604 0.42
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 122 50.89% 24.84 68.03% -0.241 0.0465 -0.389
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 13 25.0% 30.0 76.92% -0.38 -0.7428 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3794 100.0% 33.26 100.0% -0.259 -0.4326 -0.207
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3950 100.0% 32.55 100.0% 0.887 0.6875 0.507
Shifting Memory of Ages 117 100.0% 27.23 100.0% 0.16 0.3889 -0.184
Shroud of Silent Mist 180 100.0% 25.46 100.0% 0.516 0.6999 -0.653
Starlight Seeks its Form 121 100.0% 28.98 100.0% -0.561 -0.7177 -0.154
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 820 100.0% 28.6 100.0% -0.246 -0.5098 -0.069
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1589 100.0% 31.1 100.0% -0.199 -0.136 0.558
Thunderspeaker 6160 100.0% 29.42 100.0% 0.097 0.0207 0.04
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 615 100.0% 27.66 100.0% -0.683 -0.9448 0.215
Vital Strength of the Earth 9181 100.36% 23.51 100.23% -0.216 0.5374 -0.425
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 10 40.0% 24.8 80.0% -0.247 0.3307 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 58 50.91% 24.98 67.24% 0.03 1.1803 0.135
Volcano Looming High 161 100.0% 26.52 100.0% 0.062 0.0582 -0.693

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.65%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.09%
Favors Called Due 87.09%
Mantle of Dread 84.15%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10476 22.63 8.69%
II 50861 31.12 47.14%
III 57191 34.7 80.79%
IV 23396 37.97 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 910
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 45143
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23179
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22849
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 50
Lose: Invader deck ran out 310
Lose: Adversary condition 5972
Win: Sacrifice victory 868
Lose: Scenario condition 1617
Win: Scenario condition 1388
Lose: Blight pool ran out 38224
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1414

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.411 Win Model: -0.134

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.297 Win Model: 0.071
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 87848 65.2% 22.51 63.34%
2 32905 58.92% 25.32 67.45%
3 10647 46.54% 28.16 74.93%
4 10300 38.82% 32.06 80.85%
5 50 32.61% 29.84 86.0%
6 174 22.99% 28.79 86.78%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)