Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1421 65.85% 22.71 -0.063 55.45% -0.715 -0.1379
Dahan Insurrection 4 1590 41.24% 47.57 -0.022 65.91% -0.595 -0.1941
Despicable Theft 2 4 25.0% 31.25 -0.012 75.0% -0.418 0.011
Elemental Invocation 1 70 49.28% 29.57 0.011 74.29% -0.325 0.0565
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6907 25.46% 41.55 0.014 69.06% -0.095 0.2709
Powers Long Forgotten 1 924 62.38% 32.18 -0.039 63.1% -0.473 -0.0317
Rituals of Terror 3 579 73.77% 31.49 -0.108 45.77% -1.076 -0.4482
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 370 81.62% 34.5 -0.039 58.38% -0.328 0.322
Second Wave 0 4372 59.57% 26.36 -0.022 68.34% -0.671 -0.2546
The Great River 3 59 66.1% 26.46 -0.146 40.68% -1.902 -0.4304
Ward the Shores 2 528 67.89% 28.98 -0.113 44.51% -1.22 -0.1831

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 69438 63.43% 23.29 -0.007 64.83% -0.665 -0.3065
1 Thematic 3552 67.49% 31.25 -0.038 55.49% -0.724 -0.22
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 20152 58.93% 25.65 -0.001 67.83% -0.383 -0.1875
2 Coastline 2251 56.58% 26.69 -0.005 66.64% -0.387 -0.244
2 Fragment 645 61.78% 24.76 -0.017 64.81% -0.603 -0.1808
2 Heart 247 63.81% 21.02 -0.024 64.37% -0.738 -0.4452
2 Opposite Shores 3314 50.93% 27.25 0.016 74.02% -0.34 -0.1149
2 Thematic 1609 58.88% 34.53 -0.023 61.09% -0.417 -0.3723
2 Top to Top 475 62.53% 26.69 0.002 66.74% -0.222 -0.0875
3 Coastline 48 54.55% 32.63 -0.028 58.33% -0.115 -0.1488
3 Other 295 49.03% 25.04 0.01 75.25% -0.249 0.1661
3 Round (Default) 8848 47.28% 29.07 0.016 74.74% -0.029 0.0097
3 Sunrise 41 47.5% 28.24 0.061 85.37% 0.599 0.3757
3 Thematic 479 51.77% 36.96 -0.034 60.96% -0.408 -0.7645
4 Coastline 13 30.77% 30.0 -0.002 76.92% -0.415 -0.2565
4 Leaf 38 34.29% 28.89 0.053 86.84% 0.406 0.434
4 Other 208 39.71% 31.53 0.017 80.29% 0.201 0.3139
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 0.077 100.0% 0.45 -0.3384
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 0.151 100.0% 0.555 0.6788
4 Thematic 1897 36.35% 43.51 0.011 76.75% 0.198 -0.8886
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7254 39.34% 30.82 0.031 81.09% 0.413 0.3965
5 Other 49 39.58% 36.71 0.091 91.84% 1.403 1.1849
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 44.5 0.132 100.0% 1.287 -1.5412

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3885 26.15 -0.11 48.49% -2.303 -0.2331
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3305 28.44 -0.085 54.01% -2.087 -0.1688
All Things Weaken 1085 26.04 -0.129 44.61% -2.491 -0.3367
Back Against the Wall 3223 27.68 -0.104 50.02% -2.254 -0.1582
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3596 23.51 -0.119 46.86% -2.42 -0.1958
Downward Spiral 15353 20.77 -0.077 57.98% -2.206 -0.1896
Erosion of Will 3751 25.88 -0.113 48.17% -2.356 -0.146
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 356 32.14 0.04 81.18% -0.707 -0.0029
Memory Fades to Dust 15568 20.11 -0.106 52.5% -2.453 -0.2381
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1083 26.29 -0.092 52.63% -2.177 -0.1565
Promising Farmlands 3727 24.42 -0.116 47.6% -2.374 -0.1615
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 251 32.88 0.054 83.67% -0.436 -0.0001
Thriving Communities 1078 24.82 -0.108 49.26% -2.317 -0.219
Tipping Point 2283 24.68 -0.105 49.5% -2.266 -0.0474
Unnatural Proliferation 1126 27.69 -0.102 49.56% -2.186 -0.108
Untended Land Crumbles 1077 26.07 -0.102 50.23% -2.246 -0.1471

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 22293 59.94% 23.0 -0.01 65.48% 0.132 -0.9574
B 22565 60.99% 23.57 -0.006 66.12% 0.193 -0.9924
C 26717 58.83% 26.0 0.012 68.76% 0.388 -1.0267
D 22413 56.82% 24.66 0.012 69.42% 0.368 -0.8092
E 3597 55.99% 30.25 0.019 70.64% 0.544 -0.733
F 5287 59.28% 27.02 0.002 67.88% 0.284 -0.9592
G 4930 58.8% 27.31 -0.004 66.57% 0.213 -1.0172
H 4910 56.5% 27.32 0.007 69.35% 0.317 -0.9234
East 1614 59.43% 35.55 -0.032 60.16% -0.138 -1.0889
Northeast 1844 56.11% 36.2 -0.028 61.28% -0.139 -1.0286
Northwest 1640 55.62% 36.79 -0.013 64.82% 0.05 -0.9145
Southeast 231 48.47% 36.25 0.016 71.86% 0.204 -0.7976
Southwest 192 63.35% 26.64 -0.072 52.08% -0.565 -1.1736
West 1725 55.63% 36.09 -0.027 62.2% -0.141 -0.8274

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 17482 0.0% 15.54 -0.08 57.19% -2.38 -0.3359
Not Using Events or Tokens 47306 64.16% 19.76 -0.015 65.08% -0.228 -0.0094
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5215 20.22% 33.73 0.074 89.93% 0.844 0.1401
Start of Game Growth 6781 21.36% 33.39 0.076 88.95% 0.842 0.3873
Unlimited Undo 10921 47.6% 28.23 0.036 78.36% 0.31 -0.102
Using Tokens but Not Events 10413 47.22% 24.97 0.038 78.97% 0.124 0.0761

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 6162 43.1% 29.64 0.029 77.8% 0.082 0.2285
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4961 59.62% 28.04 -0.001 70.79% -0.148 0.0889
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1574 46.04% 29.41 0.007 74.02% -0.14 -0.226
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2128 41.13% 31.38 0.038 80.22% 0.243 -0.1225
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1807 43.43% 30.83 0.021 76.7% 0.022 -0.2222
Fractured Days Split the Sky 447 44.07% 34.35 0.02 74.5% 0.025 0.3702
Heart of the Wildfire 3241 61.35% 29.19 -0.012 67.85% -0.128 0.222
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4671 46.96% 33.13 0.015 73.73% 0.033 -0.2666
Lightning's Swift Strike 9365 47.54% 26.28 0.008 73.51% -0.151 0.1174
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 565 50.97% 32.56 0.007 72.92% -0.018 -0.3376
Many Minds Move as One 536 46.43% 33.62 0.044 81.34% 0.466 -0.0541
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6811 45.64% 35.31 0.047 79.39% 0.543 0.3487
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1511 48.48% 29.13 0.004 72.4% -0.164 -0.1151
River Surges in Sunlight 9037 47.48% 27.6 0.002 72.48% -0.22 -0.0585
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3611 47.14% 34.01 0.016 74.66% 0.078 0.2273
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3788 45.07% 33.32 0.014 74.87% -0.043 -0.1108
Shroud of Silent Mist 27 40.74% 28.0 0.017 74.07% -0.207 -0.2514
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1007 51.8% 31.38 0.005 70.41% -0.023 -0.0419
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1524 44.81% 33.53 0.02 75.33% 0.08 0.2961
Thunderspeaker 5307 49.14% 30.15 0.01 73.45% -0.076 -0.0185
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 722 59.94% 29.1 -0.014 67.31% -0.239 -0.2188
Vital Strength of the Earth 7458 44.9% 24.43 -0.002 72.06% -0.348 0.5221
Volcano Looming High 204 54.68% 32.02 0.018 73.04% 0.235 0.1734

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.71%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.07%
Favors Called Due 87.62%
Mantle of Dread 85.32%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9174 22.34 8.73%
II 42159 30.75 47.69%
III 48846 34.26 81.54%
IV 20689 37.47 99.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 554
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25737
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 12614
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13642
Lose: Invader deck ran out 269
Lose: Adversary condition 5921
Win: Sacrifice victory 661
Lose: Scenario condition 1508
Win: Scenario condition 1283
Lose: Blight pool ran out 30704
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1182

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.166 Win Model: -0.167

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.059
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 72994 63.67% 23.67 64.38%
2 28725 57.93% 26.38 67.98%
3 9708 47.56% 29.34 74.02%
4 9441 38.67% 33.42 80.29%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.079 Win Model: -0.754
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 103448 27.35 69.29%
Power Progression 17420 14.74 55.13%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)