Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1129 68.87% 21.57 51.2% -0.06 0.1973 -1.234
Dahan Insurrection 4 1050 41.81% 46.44 66.19% 0.068 0.4815 0.484
Despicable Theft 2 40 75.0% 28.0 57.5% 0.148 0.5944 -0.297
Elemental Invocation 1 40 57.5% 22.6 67.5% -0.154 0.3313 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4848 30.16% 40.79 63.84% -0.444 -0.139 1.001
Powers Long Forgotten 1 540 63.99% 31.4 61.3% -0.503 -0.3208 -0.839
Rituals of Terror 3 441 76.16% 31.27 44.9% -1.029 -0.9073 0.101
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 246 79.67% 35.84 61.79% -0.545 -0.1301 0.74
Second Wave 0 2645 59.58% 25.58 68.05% -0.619 -0.0537 -0.252
The Great River 3 23 69.57% 25.3 34.78% 0.0 1.3977 -0.164
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 23.0 50.0% -0.312 0.2143 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 335 67.46% 28.31 39.7% -0.54 0.6217 -0.914

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 80145 64.89% 22.19 63.78% 0.088 1.104 -0.041
1 Thematic 3830 69.34% 30.71 54.83% -0.461 0.7114 0.271
2 Archipelago 4 50.0% 42.5 75.0% 0.0 0.9835 0.462
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 22497 60.16% 24.64 67.26% -0.046 0.7054 0.928
2 Coastline 2378 56.65% 25.2 68.08% 0.171 0.7735 -0.33
2 Fragment 740 61.83% 22.98 62.84% -0.268 0.1797 -0.144
2 Heart 274 64.35% 20.31 62.77% -0.726 -0.1882 -0.322
2 Opposite Shores 3461 53.1% 26.15 72.81% 0.193 1.1849 -0.525
2 Thematic 1722 56.74% 35.46 61.85% -0.457 0.242 0.154
2 Top to Top 524 62.28% 25.66 67.18% 0.382 0.892 0.534
3 Archipelago 3 33.33% 35.0 66.67% 0.0 0.1732 0.0
3 Coastline 42 50.0% 27.52 57.14% 0.146 -0.6369 0.748
3 Other 302 48.98% 23.33 71.85% -1.319 -1.3547 0.117
3 Round (Default) 9392 46.48% 27.83 75.51% 0.011 0.6058 0.474
3 Sunrise 48 48.84% 29.13 83.33% 0.0 0.0368 -0.059
3 Thematic 507 50.69% 37.58 61.93% 0.042 0.0041 -1.078
4 Archipelago 5 80.0% 27.4 80.0% 0.142 -0.5689 0.0
4 Coastline 14 28.57% 25.29 85.71% 0.0 0.1166 0.0
4 Leaf 39 31.43% 26.85 89.74% 0.135 0.6976 -0.125
4 Other 225 38.35% 28.51 78.22% 0.629 0.3748 0.135
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1920 36.87% 42.18 78.33% -0.117 0.4118 -0.785
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7743 39.11% 29.82 81.48% 0.149 0.1217 0.179
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5788 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 60 35.09% 32.22 86.67% 0.181 0.3491 0.563
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.38 100.0% 0.002 -0.2747 0.556
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 25.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.2557 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 12.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5891 0.0
6 Other 10 20.0% 27.3 100.0% 0.008 0.8169 0.0
6 Star 3 33.33% 47.0 100.0% 0.0 0.7835 0.0
6 Thematic 37 40.54% 35.59 72.97% -0.647 -0.9259 -0.655
6 Two Centers (Default) 64 20.31% 27.09 92.19% 0.382 0.2882 -1.091
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4012 25.08 47.73% -1.765 0.1382 -0.601
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3441 27.88 53.73% -2.237 -0.5067 -0.36
All Things Weaken 959 23.06 42.02% -2.501 -0.5151 -0.742
Back Against the Wall 3393 26.81 50.4% -1.959 -0.1423 -0.335
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3784 22.66 46.06% -2.15 -0.0997 -0.878
Downward Spiral 18807 20.23 58.25% -2.402 -0.4088 -0.409
Erosion of Will 3965 24.83 46.91% -2.252 -0.1693 -0.7
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 302 30.87 81.46% -0.27 0.1714 0.667
Memory Fades to Dust 19135 19.53 52.97% -2.448 -0.3641 -0.511
Power Corrodes the Spirit 925 24.47 51.35% -1.791 0.1472 -0.531
Promising Farmlands 3999 23.68 47.01% -2.36 -0.314 -0.651
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 192 30.42 84.9% 0.244 0.6687 0.033
Thriving Communities 905 22.33 45.97% -2.175 -0.1912 -0.893
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 -0.1175 -0.516
Unnatural Proliferation 954 24.9 45.18% -1.943 0.0212 -0.842
Untended Land Crumbles 924 22.59 46.21% -2.111 -0.1176 -0.9

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 41419 56.53% 23.7 68.01% -0.497 0.2999 0.0
B 42451 56.67% 24.29 68.58% -0.368 0.376 -0.137
C 46230 55.81% 25.48 70.19% -0.21 0.3584 0.565
D 41558 53.97% 24.99 71.44% -0.114 0.6818 0.329
E 4747 59.14% 27.1 67.75% -0.438 0.2092 0.109
F 8960 56.16% 26.94 69.78% 0.042 0.7661 0.033
G 8589 56.5% 26.44 68.68% -0.742 -0.0105 -0.081
H 8581 54.67% 27.25 71.01% -0.019 0.6933 0.078
East 5772 53.68% 36.83 64.8% 0.035 0.8042 -0.068
Northeast 4081 50.49% 38.16 67.29% -0.026 0.8339 0.051
Northwest 3540 48.7% 38.48 68.95% -0.484 0.5929 -0.104
Southeast 388 46.77% 34.93 71.39% 0.224 0.9306 -0.465
Southwest 381 52.11% 30.91 65.09% -0.367 0.7586 -0.361
West 5362 52.56% 36.73 65.44% -0.016 0.9376 -0.476

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 22676 0.0% 15.17 55.79% -3.186 -1.0565 -2.106
Not Using Events or Tokens 62823 63.33% 19.7 65.35% 0.416 0.5911 -0.599
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5782 21.65% 32.41 89.61% -0.068 -0.2106 -0.404
Start of Game Growth 7600 21.98% 31.91 88.83% 1.463 0.7021 0.658
Unlimited Undo 12488 48.62% 26.84 77.72% 0.756 0.152 0.197
Using Tokens but Not Events 10565 50.95% 24.41 77.15% 0.927 0.7705 0.245

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6915 100.0% 28.73 100.0% 0.225 0.1101 0.203
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5621 100.0% 28.17 100.0% -0.151 -0.0554 1.159
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1576 100.0% 28.28 100.0% 0.046 -0.1152 -0.296
Downpour Drenches the World 7 100.0% 28.14 100.0% -0.427 -0.1747 -0.428
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2304 100.0% 29.96 100.0% -0.077 -0.5148 0.066
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1851 100.0% 29.99 100.0% -0.128 -0.6159 0.275
Finder of Paths Unseen 3 100.0% 37.67 100.0% 0.132 0.4954 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 120 100.0% 28.39 100.0% -0.062 -0.0058 -0.107
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 69 100.0% 31.26 100.0% 0.239 0.2072 -0.015
Heart of the Wildfire 3323 100.0% 28.6 100.0% -0.604 -0.429 -0.364
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4629 100.0% 32.31 100.0% 0.359 -0.0971 -0.216
Lightning's Swift Strike 10213 100.76% 24.39 100.39% -0.205 0.0693 0.048
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 3 66.67% 22.33 100.0% 0.352 -0.4251 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 62 49.18% 26.61 72.58% -0.544 -1.1865 0.13
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 91 48.89% 26.37 74.73% -0.447 -0.7139 -0.049
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 291 100.0% 32.2 100.0% -0.43 -0.6964 -0.622
Many Minds Move as One 393 100.0% 32.06 100.0% 0.102 -0.5007 0.388
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7657 100.0% 34.62 100.0% 1.132 0.9473 1.607
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1545 100.0% 28.29 100.0% 0.097 0.1178 0.09
River Surges in Sunlight 10279 100.49% 26.34 100.34% -0.188 -0.2225 0.46
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 106 51.52% 24.73 66.98% -0.367 0.064 -0.494
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 3 33.33% 25.0 100.0% 0.299 -0.0019 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3704 100.0% 33.22 100.0% 0.183 0.1306 -0.321
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3871 100.0% 32.42 100.0% -0.934 -1.2204 0.246
Shifting Memory of Ages 98 100.0% 27.57 100.0% 0.141 0.2162 0.061
Shroud of Silent Mist 154 100.0% 25.37 100.0% -0.386 -0.1494 -0.656
Starlight Seeks its Form 83 100.0% 28.39 100.0% 0.849 0.7093 -0.814
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 780 100.0% 28.65 100.0% 0.027 -0.1553 -0.07
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1527 100.0% 31.18 100.0% -0.448 -0.263 0.544
Thunderspeaker 5958 100.0% 29.44 100.0% -0.136 -0.0716 -0.013
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 597 100.0% 27.59 100.0% 0.635 0.5446 0.389
Vital Strength of the Earth 8778 100.26% 23.64 100.21% 0.122 0.9303 -0.364
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 52 53.06% 24.56 65.38% 0.422 1.5967 0.151
Volcano Looming High 149 100.0% 26.93 100.0% 0.392 0.3875 -0.745

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.66%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.05%
Favors Called Due 87.16%
Mantle of Dread 84.33%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10094 22.56 8.81%
II 48728 30.98 47.21%
III 54686 34.53 80.82%
IV 22515 37.77 99.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 889
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43172
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22231
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 21983
Lose: Invader deck ran out 285
Lose: Adversary condition 5849
Win: Sacrifice victory 831
Lose: Scenario condition 1585
Win: Scenario condition 1346
Lose: Blight pool ran out 36489
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1363

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.378 Win Model: -0.138

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.323 Win Model: 0.304
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 84001 65.14% 22.58 63.37%
2 31621 58.97% 25.39 67.49%
3 10282 46.71% 28.17 74.78%
4 9968 38.61% 32.18 80.89%
5 32 37.93% 28.31 81.25%
6 119 27.73% 30.18 87.39%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)