Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1534 66.11% 22.84 -0.063 55.48% -0.708 -0.1344
Dahan Insurrection 4 1709 41.05% 47.78 -0.023 66.18% -0.602 -0.2019
Despicable Theft 2 60 56.67% 31.0 -0.02 68.33% -0.594 -0.3119
Elemental Invocation 1 113 52.68% 29.61 0.009 72.57% -0.21 0.2298
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7462 25.81% 41.81 0.015 69.34% -0.08 0.2856
Powers Long Forgotten 1 981 62.22% 32.07 -0.04 63.0% -0.484 -0.0432
Rituals of Terror 3 628 73.91% 31.52 -0.108 46.18% -1.072 -0.4279
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 397 81.11% 34.76 -0.037 59.19% -0.313 0.3284
Second Wave 0 4730 58.68% 26.33 -0.023 68.54% -0.692 -0.2639
The Great River 3 76 64.47% 26.28 -0.155 39.47% -2.02 -0.5602
Ward the Shores 2 570 69.12% 28.51 -0.121 43.33% -1.304 -0.2665

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 75994 63.19% 23.3 -0.007 65.08% -0.749 -0.4159
1 Thematic 3927 67.84% 31.1 -0.039 55.61% -0.871 -0.3729
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 22025 58.7% 25.64 -0.001 68.23% -0.413 -0.2133
2 Coastline 2461 55.78% 26.7 -0.006 66.8% -0.454 -0.2989
2 Fragment 692 62.44% 24.51 -0.018 64.6% -0.635 -0.2393
2 Heart 270 61.64% 20.98 -0.029 64.07% -0.865 -0.5423
2 Opposite Shores 3628 50.31% 27.21 0.018 74.75% -0.356 -0.1269
2 Thematic 1739 58.45% 34.89 -0.021 61.64% -0.488 -0.4265
2 Top to Top 515 62.91% 26.29 -0.002 66.21% -0.303 -0.1709
3 Coastline 51 55.32% 32.51 -0.026 58.82% -0.037 -0.0754
3 Other 327 48.58% 25.19 0.009 75.54% -0.267 0.1527
3 Round (Default) 9673 47.09% 29.09 0.017 75.22% -0.007 0.0488
3 Sunrise 44 45.24% 28.25 0.061 86.36% 0.625 0.4307
3 Thematic 517 53.58% 36.8 -0.033 61.32% -0.416 -0.7458
4 Coastline 18 22.22% 28.67 0.016 83.33% -0.321 -0.1955
4 Leaf 41 35.14% 29.0 0.06 87.8% 0.624 0.6707
4 Other 243 40.6% 30.83 0.01 79.01% 0.143 0.2553
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 0.077 100.0% 0.477 -0.3049
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 0.152 100.0% 0.584 0.7384
4 Thematic 2010 36.59% 43.33 0.012 77.16% 0.21 -0.814
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7910 39.28% 30.69 0.03 81.09% 0.443 0.4778
5 Other 54 43.4% 36.43 0.093 92.59% 1.542 1.2875
5 Thematic 14 21.43% 44.5 0.12 100.0% 1.377 -1.5661

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4160 26.25 -0.109 48.97% -2.292 -0.219
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3593 28.55 -0.084 54.49% -2.073 -0.154
All Things Weaken 1311 25.72 -0.129 45.16% -2.518 -0.3589
Back Against the Wall 3460 27.52 -0.105 50.17% -2.265 -0.1706
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3861 23.58 -0.119 47.11% -2.41 -0.186
Downward Spiral 16591 20.74 -0.077 58.29% -2.211 -0.1902
Erosion of Will 4052 25.9 -0.111 48.86% -2.342 -0.1334
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 435 31.8 0.044 82.76% -0.674 0.0187
Memory Fades to Dust 16822 20.06 -0.106 52.61% -2.466 -0.2472
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1329 26.51 -0.087 53.88% -2.119 -0.0981
Promising Farmlands 4045 24.45 -0.116 47.91% -2.368 -0.154
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 298 32.61 0.06 85.57% -0.347 0.0642
Thriving Communities 1257 24.97 -0.107 49.8% -2.298 -0.205
Tipping Point 2284 24.68 -0.106 49.52% -2.271 -0.0451
Unnatural Proliferation 1363 27.68 -0.099 50.55% -2.176 -0.0871
Untended Land Crumbles 1335 25.91 -0.099 51.16% -2.23 -0.1244

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 24173 59.93% 22.94 -0.011 65.47% 0.119 -0.9934
B 24519 60.99% 23.51 -0.007 66.13% 0.181 -1.0268
C 28931 58.48% 25.96 0.012 69.1% 0.386 -1.0537
D 24269 56.59% 24.59 0.012 69.75% 0.362 -0.8403
E 4296 55.26% 30.19 0.021 71.67% 0.54 -0.7722
F 6044 58.96% 26.96 0.001 68.25% 0.271 -0.9949
G 5634 58.28% 27.31 -0.002 67.41% 0.218 -1.039
H 5553 56.3% 27.4 0.008 69.94% 0.323 -0.9429
East 1719 60.27% 35.49 -0.032 60.21% -0.08 -1.0608
Northeast 2002 56.68% 36.33 -0.027 61.49% -0.075 -1.0064
Northwest 1736 55.2% 36.72 -0.013 65.15% 0.094 -0.9053
Southeast 279 47.65% 36.29 0.017 72.04% 0.284 -0.7413
Southwest 239 65.97% 25.85 -0.085 48.54% -0.604 -1.2244
West 1856 55.8% 36.09 -0.024 63.04% -0.062 -0.7866

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 19142 0.0% 15.48 -0.082 57.02% -2.409 -0.3544
Not Using Events or Tokens 51744 63.9% 19.73 -0.016 65.23% -0.221 -0.0032
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5667 19.7% 33.52 0.074 90.24% 0.871 0.1779
Start of Game Growth 7394 21.28% 33.06 0.075 89.06% 0.852 0.3888
Unlimited Undo 12069 47.79% 28.08 0.035 78.41% 0.306 -0.115
Using Tokens but Not Events 11348 46.73% 25.0 0.038 79.35% 0.127 0.075

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 6605 43.04% 29.53 0.029 78.15% 0.078 0.2103
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5333 59.48% 28.1 0.0 71.24% -0.131 0.0971
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1748 46.32% 29.41 0.008 74.66% -0.122 -0.208
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2401 40.86% 31.15 0.039 81.01% 0.247 -0.1262
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2025 43.88% 30.67 0.015 75.6% -0.047 -0.3079
Fractured Days Split the Sky 526 44.0% 34.31 0.021 75.67% 0.028 0.3964
Heart of the Wildfire 3373 61.49% 29.14 -0.013 67.89% -0.144 0.2058
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4962 46.83% 33.12 0.015 74.04% 0.024 -0.2802
Lightning's Swift Strike 10282 47.12% 26.26 0.009 73.89% -0.158 0.1017
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 789 49.05% 32.91 0.016 75.41% 0.1 -0.1733
Many Minds Move as One 639 46.6% 33.52 0.043 81.53% 0.453 -0.0617
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7299 45.78% 35.2 0.046 79.39% 0.524 0.3289
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1696 47.97% 28.99 0.003 72.58% -0.203 -0.1571
River Surges in Sunlight 9907 47.35% 27.49 0.002 72.78% -0.221 -0.0687
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3785 47.0% 33.98 0.015 74.8% 0.06 0.2045
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3971 44.74% 33.31 0.015 75.35% -0.047 -0.1183
Shroud of Silent Mist 222 52.25% 29.22 0.032 79.73% 0.111 0.0915
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1143 51.94% 31.51 0.006 71.22% -0.001 -0.0209
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1705 44.23% 33.53 0.021 75.78% 0.076 0.2793
Thunderspeaker 5624 48.99% 30.04 0.01 73.56% -0.091 -0.0397
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 874 60.39% 28.91 -0.024 65.33% -0.366 -0.3582
Vital Strength of the Earth 8122 44.85% 24.26 -0.001 72.49% -0.344 0.526
Volcano Looming High 329 53.82% 31.48 0.01 72.95% 0.032 0.009

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.64%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.1%
Favors Called Due 87.53%
Mantle of Dread 85.37%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9853 22.34 9.03%
II 45875 30.81 47.73%
III 53556 34.31 81.66%
IV 22876 37.5 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 643
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29555
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14349
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15779
Lose: Invader deck ran out 301
Lose: Adversary condition 6366
Win: Sacrifice victory 748
Lose: Scenario condition 1625
Win: Scenario condition 1378
Lose: Blight pool ran out 33365
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1258

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.185 Win Model: -0.165

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.098
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 79927 63.46% 23.68 64.62%
2 31363 57.61% 26.37 68.38%
3 10613 47.45% 29.35 74.5%
4 10257 38.7% 33.21 80.38%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.08 Win Model: -0.761
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 113091 27.34 69.64%
Power Progression 19069 14.71 54.99%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)