Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 20.0% 20.2 80.0% 0.059 -0.1294 0.0
Blitz 0 1236 68.04% 21.23 50.73% -0.088 0.0962 -1.191
Dahan Insurrection 4 1135 40.52% 46.47 66.87% 0.684 0.3696 0.556
Despicable Theft 2 49 67.35% 27.82 57.14% 0.019 0.7635 -0.318
Elemental Invocation 1 58 65.52% 22.19 60.34% -0.095 0.6763 -0.127
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5174 29.83% 40.53 64.22% 0.926 0.305 1.078
Powers Long Forgotten 1 575 63.92% 30.89 60.7% -0.016 0.5268 -0.66
Rituals of Terror 3 477 75.21% 30.61 43.4% -1.173 -1.0662 0.208
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 258 78.29% 35.24 61.63% -1.05 -0.0794 0.756
Second Wave 0 2806 59.64% 25.35 67.32% 0.272 0.3403 -0.238
The Great River 3 34 58.82% 19.24 26.47% -1.247 0.051 -0.166
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 21.71 57.14% -0.316 0.258 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 353 66.29% 28.12 40.51% -0.388 0.7458 -0.87

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 87165 64.46% 21.75 62.78% 0.892 1.005 0.673
1 Thematic 4000 68.94% 30.49 54.45% 0.468 1.0324 0.982
2 Archipelago 4 50.0% 42.5 75.0% 0.0 0.3246 0.512
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24563 59.41% 24.0 65.65% 0.292 0.3865 1.214
2 Coastline 2544 56.37% 24.56 67.1% 0.478 0.4181 -0.023
2 Fragment 808 61.36% 22.17 61.26% 0.196 0.0422 0.035
2 Heart 303 63.89% 19.7 60.07% -0.382 -0.7043 -0.506
2 Opposite Shores 3753 53.18% 25.44 71.44% 0.518 0.5781 -0.037
2 Thematic 1808 56.32% 35.25 61.06% 0.179 0.7383 0.591
2 Top to Top 575 61.07% 24.88 66.61% 0.652 0.5748 0.724
3 Archipelago 7 57.14% 25.14 71.43% 0.0 -1.599 0.0
3 Coastline 52 45.45% 24.13 51.92% -0.008 -0.4533 0.761
3 Other 329 48.5% 22.48 69.3% 0.019 0.5562 0.153
3 Round (Default) 10073 46.09% 27.45 74.95% 0.623 0.463 0.314
3 Sunrise 49 48.84% 28.69 81.63% 0.0 0.1671 -0.011
3 Thematic 540 48.89% 37.38 62.04% -0.127 -0.0607 -0.922
4 Archipelago 7 66.67% 19.57 57.14% 0.11 -0.5462 0.0
4 Coastline 18 22.22% 26.22 88.89% 0.0 0.2241 0.0
4 Leaf 48 39.53% 24.08 87.5% 0.852 0.311 -0.152
4 Other 253 39.56% 26.35 73.52% -0.641 -1.7579 -0.098
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.388 0.0
4 Thematic 2011 36.58% 41.47 77.62% -0.665 -0.8389 -1.254
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8325 38.93% 29.16 79.84% -0.185 -0.3866 -0.524
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.1404 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.4388 0.0
5 Other 95 32.97% 33.8 90.53% 1.161 0.6962 0.33
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.38 100.0% 0.0 0.0241 0.489
6 Archipelago 5 20.0% 20.2 80.0% 0.244 0.6127 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 12.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6195 0.0
6 Other 16 18.75% 24.81 81.25% -1.315 -1.6834 0.0
6 Star 8 37.5% 34.63 62.5% -1.225 -1.0484 0.0
6 Thematic 44 40.91% 33.11 65.91% -0.382 0.0908 -1.666
6 Two Centers (Default) 149 13.51% 23.56 81.88% -0.724 -0.642 -1.642
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1041 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4179 25.04 48.0% 0.421 0.6199 -0.486
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3583 27.79 53.78% 0.192 0.126 -0.255
All Things Weaken 1071 22.96 42.3% -0.125 0.2423 -0.585
Attenuated Essence 17 18.53 47.06% 0.238 0.3087 0.115
Back Against the Wall 3539 26.62 50.38% -0.191 -0.1221 -0.212
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 18.22 33.33% -0.138 0.1187 -0.19
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 25.29 57.14% 0.455 0.6294 -0.16
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3952 22.61 46.36% -0.112 0.3271 -0.727
Downward Spiral 20351 20.04 57.69% 0.223 0.4694 -0.315
Erosion of Will 4140 24.77 47.32% 0.265 0.5831 -0.542
Intensifying Exploitation 14 15.64 42.86% 0.124 0.3938 -0.549
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 340 30.52 81.47% 1.126 0.6162 0.744
Memory Fades to Dust 20803 19.33 52.53% 0.115 0.4792 -0.38
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1025 24.09 50.24% 0.118 0.3543 -0.547
Promising Farmlands 4169 23.5 47.01% -0.046 0.4145 -0.539
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 15.78 27.78% -0.421 -0.3659 -0.342
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 24.73 53.33% 0.52 0.9274 -0.528
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 213 29.72 85.45% 0.97 0.328 0.124
The Border of Life and Death 5 37.6 100.0% 1.034 0.6468 0.424
Thriving Communities 1015 21.99 45.71% 0.202 0.5594 -0.827
Thriving Crops 7 10.57 28.57% -0.374 -0.4888 -0.14
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 -0.1815 -0.427
Unnatural Proliferation 1066 24.41 44.84% 0.031 0.2037 -0.745
Untended Land Crumbles 1031 22.01 45.0% -0.348 -0.0995 -0.832

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 45028 55.95% 23.09 66.59% -0.465 0.3678 0.009
B 46071 56.24% 23.69 67.18% -0.41 0.3899 -0.078
C 50011 55.33% 24.94 69.03% -0.06 0.5971 0.583
D 45035 53.52% 24.4 70.11% -0.14 0.6539 0.364
E 5385 57.52% 26.53 67.39% 0.092 0.7196 0.104
F 9845 55.15% 26.4 68.87% -0.369 0.3443 0.05
G 9460 56.05% 25.98 68.07% -0.075 0.663 -0.065
H 9480 54.05% 26.68 70.09% 0.029 0.6874 0.117
East 6086 53.04% 36.36 64.15% -0.794 -0.1855 -0.095
Northeast 4327 49.91% 37.6 66.54% 0.04 0.789 0.028
Northwest 3712 48.32% 37.97 68.27% 0.185 1.0007 -0.046
Southeast 408 46.44% 34.46 70.59% 0.498 1.2269 -0.617
Southwest 400 51.88% 30.36 63.75% -0.6 0.4649 -0.375
West 5618 52.16% 36.34 64.9% 0.143 1.0926 -0.529

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25182 0.0% 14.62 53.77% -0.983 -0.1703 -1.989
Not Using Events or Tokens 70217 62.42% 19.23 63.6% -0.267 0.0699 -0.608
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6173 21.9% 31.94 88.5% 0.506 -0.127 -0.366
Start of Game Growth 8106 22.17% 31.41 87.74% 0.672 0.382 0.684
Unlimited Undo 13473 48.11% 26.45 76.76% 0.064 0.0671 0.173
Using Tokens but Not Events 11276 50.67% 24.01 75.89% -0.246 -0.3204 0.163

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7508 100.0% 28.15 100.0% 0.313 0.1625 0.193
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5996 100.0% 27.83 100.0% -0.066 0.0569 1.189
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1722 100.0% 27.64 100.0% 0.126 -0.0299 -0.117
Downpour Drenches the World 66 100.0% 24.64 100.0% 0.639 0.8279 -0.781
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 28 100.0% 18.54 100.0% 0.26 -0.5733 -0.278
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2509 100.0% 29.44 100.0% -0.262 -0.8632 0.242
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1993 100.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.11 -0.3741 0.348
Finder of Paths Unseen 23 100.0% 21.52 100.0% -0.293 0.3761 -0.467
Fractured Days Split the Sky 142 100.0% 27.58 100.0% -0.39 0.2305 -0.109
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 105 100.0% 28.41 100.0% 0.655 0.5644 0.101
Heart of the Wildfire 3468 100.0% 28.18 100.0% -0.798 -0.5483 -0.33
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4829 100.0% 32.09 100.0% 0.367 -0.0596 -0.002
Lightning's Swift Strike 11246 100.91% 23.64 100.58% -0.291 -0.0651 0.344
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 18 72.22% 27.28 38.89% -0.367 -1.0027 -0.852
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 69 50.0% 25.94 71.01% -0.211 -0.358 0.212
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 114 43.75% 24.48 70.18% -0.436 -0.5568 0.012
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 341 100.0% 31.33 100.0% -0.063 -0.2036 -0.614
Many Minds Move as One 440 100.0% 31.15 100.0% 0.808 0.6109 0.519
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8174 100.0% 34.11 100.0% 0.522 0.5279 1.677
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1686 100.0% 27.57 100.0% -0.049 -0.19 0.21
River Surges in Sunlight 11281 100.65% 25.35 100.5% -0.478 -0.4121 0.514
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 133 51.22% 24.22 66.17% -0.174 0.0615 -0.48
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 23 38.1% 20.74 52.17% -0.821 -0.9387 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3907 100.0% 32.84 100.0% 0.3 0.0577 -0.399
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4051 100.17% 32.16 100.07% -0.294 -0.4366 0.244
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 11 36.36% 35.45 72.73% 0.872 0.4223 -0.197
Shifting Memory of Ages 135 100.0% 26.29 100.0% 0.531 0.9155 -0.062
Shroud of Silent Mist 199 100.0% 24.99 100.0% 0.614 0.8977 -0.588
Starlight Seeks its Form 143 100.0% 28.08 100.0% 0.579 0.3447 -0.197
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 854 100.0% 28.5 100.0% 0.823 0.3231 0.165
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1652 100.0% 30.78 100.0% 0.303 0.352 0.631
Thunderspeaker 6360 100.06% 28.96 100.03% 0.081 0.0733 0.116
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 8 50.0% 29.63 75.0% 0.741 0.6161 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 634 100.0% 27.2 100.0% -0.753 -0.6709 0.291
Vital Strength of the Earth 9729 100.42% 22.73 100.41% -0.163 0.3861 -0.429
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 15 42.86% 17.53 53.33% -1.059 -0.8311 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 78 53.52% 21.08 57.69% -0.276 0.5992 0.245
Volcano Looming High 194 100.0% 25.26 100.0% -0.941 -0.9577 -0.749

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 79.04%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.26%
Favors Called Due 87.27%
Mantle of Dread 84.37%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12653 20.63 7.28%
II 52463 31.02 46.82%
III 58595 34.75 80.71%
IV 23904 38.05 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 921
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 46203
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23750
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 23346
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2496
Lose: Invader deck ran out 313
Lose: Adversary condition 6059
Win: Sacrifice victory 881
Lose: Scenario condition 1644
Win: Scenario condition 1419
Lose: Blight pool ran out 39135
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1448

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.402 Win Model: -0.077

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.146 Win Model: 0.435
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 91227 64.7% 22.13 62.4%
2 34378 58.38% 24.73 66.02%
3 11040 46.25% 27.78 74.14%
4 10678 38.45% 31.4 79.39%
5 68 32.81% 32.57 89.71%
6 224 20.63% 25.87 78.13%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)