Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.075 0.5707 0.0
Blitz 0 1168 69.21% 21.54 51.28% -0.038 0.4055 -1.272
Dahan Insurrection 4 1075 41.2% 46.61 66.79% 0.241 0.3384 0.49
Despicable Theft 2 40 75.0% 28.0 57.5% 0.0 0.4987 -0.303
Elemental Invocation 1 46 63.04% 22.37 58.7% -1.16 -0.6142 -0.161
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4985 29.87% 40.8 64.31% 0.158 0.3893 1.022
Powers Long Forgotten 1 555 64.43% 31.22 61.08% -0.52 -0.1128 -0.851
Rituals of Terror 3 455 76.01% 31.14 44.84% -0.998 -1.2337 0.093
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 253 79.45% 35.72 62.45% 0.266 0.4922 0.74
Second Wave 0 2710 59.72% 25.53 67.86% -0.722 -0.0291 -0.195
The Great River 3 23 69.57% 25.3 34.78% 0.0 1.5815 -0.163
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 23.67 66.67% 0.132 0.9187 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 338 67.16% 28.31 39.94% -0.408 0.4733 -0.909

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 82820 64.93% 22.14 63.76% 0.026 0.6888 -0.028
1 Thematic 3889 69.35% 30.67 54.82% -0.899 0.1581 0.31
2 Archipelago 4 50.0% 42.5 75.0% 0.0 0.4709 0.466
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 23170 60.08% 24.61 67.22% -0.078 0.4406 0.934
2 Coastline 2450 57.05% 24.97 67.92% -0.099 0.1012 -0.347
2 Fragment 760 61.87% 22.87 62.63% -0.685 -0.3868 -0.063
2 Heart 288 64.44% 20.26 62.15% -0.071 0.3899 -0.332
2 Opposite Shores 3542 53.09% 26.08 72.92% 0.398 0.9365 -0.448
2 Thematic 1750 56.7% 35.45 61.71% -0.352 0.43 0.163
2 Top to Top 542 61.8% 25.63 67.53% 0.283 0.4111 0.475
3 Archipelago 5 40.0% 30.8 60.0% -0.405 -0.6237 0.0
3 Coastline 43 48.57% 27.42 58.14% 0.074 -0.4333 0.731
3 Other 310 49.6% 23.23 71.61% -0.315 -0.9786 0.1
3 Round (Default) 9618 46.34% 27.8 75.56% 0.212 0.5168 0.409
3 Sunrise 49 48.84% 28.69 81.63% -0.207 0.2535 -0.081
3 Thematic 524 49.62% 37.83 62.79% -0.196 0.0115 -1.092
4 Archipelago 5 80.0% 27.4 80.0% 0.0 -0.0374 0.0
4 Coastline 18 22.22% 26.22 88.89% 0.165 0.1275 0.0
4 Leaf 40 31.43% 26.57 90.0% 0.629 0.5276 -0.115
4 Other 228 38.46% 28.37 78.07% 0.624 -0.0898 0.111
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1952 36.9% 42.06 78.43% 0.655 0.7587 -0.839
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7915 39.24% 29.74 81.42% 0.524 0.6018 0.155
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.077 -0.5106 0.0
5 Other 66 33.87% 32.86 87.88% 0.539 0.0225 0.651
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.2873 0.546
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 25.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 12.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 12 16.67% 25.83 91.67% -0.855 -0.8107 0.0
6 Star 3 33.33% 47.0 100.0% 0.0 0.7704 0.0
6 Thematic 40 40.0% 34.77 70.0% -0.279 -0.0379 -0.76
6 Two Centers (Default) 87 19.54% 27.23 90.8% -0.435 -0.2437 -0.983
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4087 25.1 47.96% -1.791 0.18 -0.595
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3500 27.87 53.74% -2.03 -0.2523 -0.368
All Things Weaken 998 22.95 41.98% -2.183 -0.1338 -0.732
Back Against the Wall 3455 26.81 50.51% -1.58 0.3593 -0.309
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3859 22.69 46.2% -2.375 -0.2466 -0.842
Downward Spiral 19450 20.2 58.26% -2.08 -0.1193 -0.424
Erosion of Will 4042 24.87 47.15% -1.707 0.3747 -0.659
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 315 30.81 81.59% -0.189 0.3125 0.688
Memory Fades to Dust 19845 19.5 52.95% -2.409 -0.268 -0.496
Power Corrodes the Spirit 964 24.41 50.83% -2.48 -0.499 -0.542
Promising Farmlands 4077 23.61 46.95% -2.281 -0.2597 -0.659
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 198 30.15 85.35% 0.09 0.5861 0.048
Thriving Communities 948 22.2 45.36% -2.768 -0.7084 -0.915
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 0.0 -0.515
Unnatural Proliferation 998 24.71 44.89% -2.487 -0.5296 -0.802
Untended Land Crumbles 982 22.3 45.62% -1.909 0.1239 -0.885

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 42591 56.55% 23.64 68.0% -0.551 0.1855 0.027
B 43675 56.72% 24.24 68.54% -0.389 0.3079 -0.102
C 47637 55.85% 25.4 70.07% -0.32 0.1493 0.58
D 42717 54.0% 24.91 71.35% -0.165 0.5446 0.33
E 4959 58.66% 27.08 67.98% 0.076 0.6207 0.125
F 9243 56.0% 26.94 69.98% -0.761 -0.0992 0.037
G 8877 56.55% 26.39 68.85% 0.049 0.6801 -0.083
H 8892 54.62% 27.15 70.99% -0.433 0.2312 0.075
East 5882 53.55% 36.79 64.86% -0.763 -0.1016 -0.06
Northeast 4166 50.39% 38.1 67.33% -0.071 0.5885 0.043
Northwest 3599 48.64% 38.39 68.96% -0.011 0.5991 -0.126
Southeast 399 46.73% 34.73 71.18% -0.086 0.4449 -0.477
Southwest 389 52.06% 30.75 64.78% 0.026 0.994 -0.395
West 5459 52.43% 36.69 65.51% -0.165 0.641 -0.503

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23509 0.0% 15.09 55.49% -2.859 -0.63 -2.118
Not Using Events or Tokens 65443 63.32% 19.7 65.26% 0.084 0.3108 -0.587
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5909 21.82% 32.33 89.51% 0.809 -0.1711 -0.388
Start of Game Growth 7787 22.12% 31.82 88.74% 0.099 -0.3579 0.641
Unlimited Undo 12846 48.41% 26.82 77.87% 0.642 0.0902 0.226
Using Tokens but Not Events 10811 50.83% 24.36 77.06% 0.181 0.3359 0.305

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7122 100.0% 28.68 100.0% 0.571 0.4954 0.199
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5747 100.0% 28.2 100.0% -0.101 -0.0227 1.204
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1615 100.0% 28.18 100.0% 0.083 -0.141 -0.276
Downpour Drenches the World 19 100.0% 29.32 100.0% 0.044 0.3091 -0.54
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2377 100.0% 29.97 100.0% -0.155 -0.6577 0.114
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1904 100.0% 29.89 100.0% 0.527 -0.0599 0.268
Finder of Paths Unseen 8 100.0% 24.88 100.0% -0.062 0.2937 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 125 100.0% 28.38 100.0% -0.392 -0.3096 -0.114
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 77 100.0% 30.45 100.0% -0.018 -0.1129 -0.088
Heart of the Wildfire 3365 100.0% 28.56 100.0% 0.337 0.7428 -0.385
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4707 100.0% 32.29 100.0% -0.036 -0.6398 -0.186
Lightning's Swift Strike 10551 100.81% 24.33 100.43% -0.126 0.239 0.054
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 7 71.43% 27.71 71.43% 0.185 -0.564 -0.27
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 64 50.79% 26.13 71.88% -0.139 -0.7027 0.132
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 100 46.94% 25.99 75.0% -0.108 -0.6028 -0.041
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 305 100.0% 31.89 100.0% -0.273 -0.425 -0.697
Many Minds Move as One 402 100.0% 31.93 100.0% -0.316 -0.9023 0.275
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7830 100.0% 34.6 100.0% 0.359 0.1891 1.653
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1584 100.0% 28.09 100.0% -0.963 -1.019 0.082
River Surges in Sunlight 10602 100.52% 26.18 100.37% -0.432 -0.5058 0.436
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 118 51.85% 24.91 67.8% 0.184 0.6102 -0.264
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 5 25.0% 21.6 80.0% -0.593 -0.9344 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3748 100.0% 33.23 100.0% 0.508 0.3146 -0.328
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3915 100.0% 32.46 100.0% 0.399 0.2075 0.361
Shifting Memory of Ages 110 100.0% 27.67 100.0% 0.238 0.4527 -0.083
Shroud of Silent Mist 167 100.0% 25.38 100.0% 0.526 0.6598 -0.668
Starlight Seeks its Form 104 100.0% 28.36 100.0% 0.091 -0.0243 -0.427
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 801 100.0% 28.64 100.0% 1.219 0.9801 -0.06
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1569 100.0% 31.16 100.0% -0.665 -0.5348 0.559
Thunderspeaker 6098 100.0% 29.4 100.0% -0.168 -0.1855 0.021
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 610 100.0% 27.56 100.0% -0.809 -1.0248 0.267
Vital Strength of the Earth 9050 100.32% 23.56 100.21% -0.456 0.4425 -0.391
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 5 40.0% 29.2 80.0% 0.195 0.6175 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 56 50.94% 24.46 67.86% 0.416 1.53 0.153
Volcano Looming High 157 100.0% 26.39 100.0% -0.052 -0.0724 -0.706

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.68%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.08%
Favors Called Due 87.11%
Mantle of Dread 84.18%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10336 22.65 8.73%
II 50233 31.08 47.11%
III 56492 34.66 80.81%
IV 23116 37.91 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 902
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 44602
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22873
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22575
Lose: Invader deck ran out 296
Lose: Adversary condition 5942
Win: Sacrifice victory 856
Lose: Scenario condition 1605
Win: Scenario condition 1370
Lose: Blight pool ran out 37758
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1398

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.544 Win Model: -0.116

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.221 Win Model: 0.089
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 86751 65.17% 22.52 63.36%
2 32526 58.94% 25.33 67.45%
3 10535 46.53% 28.16 74.85%
4 10179 38.71% 32.08 80.86%
5 39 34.29% 30.08 84.62%
6 147 25.85% 29.51 85.71%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)