Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.082 0.4384 0.0
Blitz 0 1169 69.24% 21.53 51.24% -0.478 0.0203 -1.277
Dahan Insurrection 4 1081 40.97% 46.78 66.98% 0.213 0.3331 0.505
Despicable Theft 2 40 75.0% 28.0 57.5% 0.0 0.5077 -0.303
Elemental Invocation 1 47 63.83% 22.49 59.57% -0.982 -0.3728 -0.142
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5012 29.85% 40.81 64.33% -0.07 0.1535 1.012
Powers Long Forgotten 1 556 64.31% 31.21 61.15% -0.541 -0.0615 -0.864
Rituals of Terror 3 456 76.06% 31.1 44.74% -1.129 -1.3549 0.095
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 254 79.53% 35.8 62.6% 0.083 0.2796 0.719
Second Wave 0 2719 59.82% 25.54 67.86% -0.873 -0.282 -0.228
The Great River 3 23 69.57% 25.3 34.78% 0.0 1.6854 -0.162
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 23.67 66.67% 0.1 0.8408 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 340 66.76% 28.35 40.29% -0.373 0.5181 -0.919

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 83156 64.92% 22.14 63.76% 0.059 0.5625 0.21
1 Thematic 3894 69.36% 30.66 54.83% -0.668 0.211 0.544
2 Archipelago 4 50.0% 42.5 75.0% 0.0 0.8286 0.491
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 23269 60.08% 24.63 67.26% -0.057 0.337 1.022
2 Coastline 2456 56.98% 24.98 67.87% 0.036 0.1041 -0.269
2 Fragment 764 61.95% 22.88 62.57% -0.531 -0.3425 0.016
2 Heart 288 64.44% 20.26 62.15% -0.058 0.3966 -0.284
2 Opposite Shores 3552 53.16% 26.05 72.92% 0.497 0.8689 -0.36
2 Thematic 1757 56.59% 35.54 61.75% -0.436 0.2996 0.273
2 Top to Top 544 61.88% 25.63 67.65% 0.759 0.7753 0.551
3 Archipelago 5 40.0% 30.8 60.0% -0.394 -0.6696 0.0
3 Coastline 43 48.57% 27.42 58.14% 0.057 -0.2967 0.737
3 Other 310 49.6% 23.23 71.61% -0.503 -1.2831 0.106
3 Round (Default) 9647 46.34% 27.79 75.57% 0.344 0.5209 0.333
3 Sunrise 49 48.84% 28.69 81.63% -0.246 -0.2363 -0.086
3 Thematic 526 49.62% 37.91 62.93% 0.312 0.6956 -0.972
4 Archipelago 5 80.0% 27.4 80.0% 0.0 0.1503 0.0
4 Coastline 18 22.22% 26.22 88.89% 0.139 -0.0157 0.0
4 Leaf 41 33.33% 26.0 87.8% 0.011 -0.0262 -0.128
4 Other 230 38.57% 28.23 77.83% -0.09 -0.7721 0.015
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1960 36.9% 42.03 78.42% 0.287 0.294 -1.046
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7955 39.25% 29.74 81.42% 0.392 0.4846 -0.042
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2445 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.6646 0.0
5 Other 66 33.87% 32.86 87.88% 0.394 -0.216 0.546
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.2864 0.5
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 25.33 100.0% 0.0 0.1215 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 12.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.716 0.0
6 Other 12 16.67% 25.83 91.67% 0.0 -0.3627 0.0
6 Star 3 33.33% 47.0 100.0% 0.0 0.9125 0.0
6 Thematic 41 41.46% 35.27 70.73% -0.217 -0.0989 -1.026
6 Two Centers (Default) 87 19.54% 27.23 90.8% -0.535 -0.2228 -1.175
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 0.066 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4092 25.11 48.0% -1.922 0.0713 -0.61
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3505 27.87 53.75% -2.221 -0.4459 -0.384
All Things Weaken 1002 23.02 42.22% -1.337 0.7229 -0.727
Back Against the Wall 3464 26.78 50.49% -1.984 -0.049 -0.335
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3872 22.69 46.31% -1.816 0.2639 -0.847
Downward Spiral 19534 20.2 58.23% -2.158 -0.2339 -0.431
Erosion of Will 4047 24.88 47.22% -1.375 0.7162 -0.666
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 318 30.86 81.76% 0.355 0.855 0.689
Memory Fades to Dust 19952 19.51 52.95% -2.395 -0.2847 -0.507
Power Corrodes the Spirit 969 24.41 50.88% -2.29 -0.3417 -0.556
Promising Farmlands 4087 23.61 47.0% -2.154 -0.1444 -0.675
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 198 30.15 85.35% 0.049 0.5191 0.046
Thriving Communities 954 22.17 45.39% -2.534 -0.4682 -0.928
Tipping Point 2286 24.67 49.48% 0.0 0.0 -0.533
Unnatural Proliferation 1001 24.71 44.96% -2.028 -0.0858 -0.814
Untended Land Crumbles 987 22.26 45.49% -2.385 -0.3476 -0.898

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 42766 56.56% 23.63 68.0% -0.379 0.3125 0.035
B 43835 56.73% 24.24 68.53% -0.26 0.4038 -0.09
C 47822 55.84% 25.39 70.07% -0.175 0.261 0.588
D 42870 53.99% 24.92 71.38% 0.034 0.71 0.341
E 4986 58.68% 27.08 68.05% 0.26 0.7522 0.14
F 9279 55.9% 26.96 70.04% -0.469 0.1752 0.042
G 8925 56.67% 26.4 68.82% 0.05 0.6236 -0.067
H 8934 54.62% 27.15 70.96% -0.444 0.1768 0.086
East 5897 53.52% 36.81 64.9% -0.762 -0.1884 -0.035
Northeast 4179 50.38% 38.12 67.38% 0.179 0.7729 0.018
Northwest 3615 48.64% 38.41 68.96% -0.047 0.4828 -0.097
Southeast 402 46.63% 34.71 71.14% -0.139 0.5125 -0.562
Southwest 392 51.92% 30.77 64.8% 0.034 0.9447 -0.419
West 5481 52.42% 36.7 65.54% 0.016 0.775 -0.48

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23613 0.0% 15.09 55.49% -2.783 -0.5903 -2.121
Not Using Events or Tokens 65808 63.32% 19.71 65.25% -0.047 0.1962 -0.592
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5946 21.77% 32.37 89.52% 1.353 0.3184 -0.229
Start of Game Growth 7829 22.1% 31.83 88.71% -0.255 -0.7733 0.618
Unlimited Undo 12914 48.35% 26.86 77.93% 0.676 0.1623 0.283
Using Tokens but Not Events 10837 50.84% 24.36 77.04% -0.028 0.1389 0.3

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7150 100.0% 28.66 100.0% 0.702 0.6025 0.198
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5767 100.0% 28.21 100.0% -0.135 -0.0917 1.233
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1621 100.0% 28.18 100.0% -0.112 -0.3172 -0.269
Downpour Drenches the World 19 100.0% 29.32 100.0% 0.338 0.6652 -0.535
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2382 100.0% 29.96 100.0% -0.704 -1.1914 0.11
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1907 100.0% 29.9 100.0% 0.81 0.2598 0.252
Finder of Paths Unseen 9 100.0% 26.33 100.0% 0.157 0.492 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 126 100.0% 28.29 100.0% -0.247 -0.2448 -0.133
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 79 100.0% 30.16 100.0% 0.349 0.2469 -0.103
Heart of the Wildfire 3375 100.0% 28.56 100.0% 0.587 0.95 -0.387
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4715 100.0% 32.3 100.0% 0.259 -0.3234 -0.157
Lightning's Swift Strike 10601 100.81% 24.35 100.42% 0.026 0.3944 0.172
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 7 71.43% 27.71 71.43% 0.127 -0.6205 -0.275
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 64 50.79% 26.13 71.88% -0.325 -0.8627 0.129
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 101 46.46% 26.37 75.25% -0.179 -0.657 -0.018
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 307 100.0% 31.9 100.0% -0.954 -1.0552 -0.73
Many Minds Move as One 405 100.0% 31.82 100.0% -0.086 -0.7484 0.284
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7859 100.0% 34.59 100.0% 0.159 0.0142 1.657
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1588 100.0% 28.13 100.0% -0.466 -0.5187 0.088
River Surges in Sunlight 10661 100.53% 26.16 100.37% -0.46 -0.5577 0.433
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 118 51.85% 24.91 67.8% 0.267 0.6544 -0.32
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 8 28.57% 27.25 87.5% -0.133 -0.4702 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3765 100.0% 33.27 100.0% 0.5 0.3722 -0.245
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3927 100.0% 32.52 100.0% 0.136 -0.071 0.461
Shifting Memory of Ages 112 100.0% 27.57 100.0% 0.4 0.5964 -0.094
Shroud of Silent Mist 169 100.0% 25.33 100.0% 0.111 0.2414 -0.65
Starlight Seeks its Form 107 100.0% 28.85 100.0% -0.311 -0.393 -0.565
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 809 100.0% 28.59 100.0% 0.266 -0.0046 -0.05
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1570 100.0% 31.15 100.0% -0.88 -0.7805 0.573
Thunderspeaker 6118 100.0% 29.43 100.0% -0.16 -0.1666 0.037
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 614 100.0% 27.7 100.0% -0.307 -0.5185 0.233
Vital Strength of the Earth 9093 100.33% 23.55 100.21% -0.192 0.6895 -0.399
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 6 33.33% 28.33 83.33% 0.085 0.497 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 56 50.94% 24.46 67.86% 0.488 1.5981 0.145
Volcano Looming High 157 100.0% 26.39 100.0% -0.106 -0.1019 -0.682

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.66%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.1%
Favors Called Due 87.09%
Mantle of Dread 84.17%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10364 22.67 8.74%
II 50451 31.1 47.15%
III 56704 34.68 80.79%
IV 23210 37.93 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 906
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 44758
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22990
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22669
Lose: Invader deck ran out 300
Lose: Adversary condition 5951
Win: Sacrifice victory 857
Lose: Scenario condition 1611
Win: Scenario condition 1378
Lose: Blight pool ran out 37908
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1401

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.6 Win Model: -0.117

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.243 Win Model: 0.077
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 87092 65.16% 22.52 63.36%
2 32654 58.94% 25.34 67.48%
3 10566 46.53% 28.16 74.86%
4 10230 38.73% 32.07 80.85%
5 39 34.29% 30.08 84.62%
6 148 26.35% 29.68 85.81%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-25 02:29:02 (Pacific Time)