Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1588 66.21% 22.88 -0.065 55.42% -0.719 -0.15
Dahan Insurrection 4 1796 40.39% 47.69 -0.023 66.48% -0.623 -0.2251
Despicable Theft 2 78 56.41% 30.71 -0.026 66.67% -0.638 -0.3684
Elemental Invocation 1 125 54.84% 29.13 0.013 72.8% -0.101 0.3638
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7745 26.02% 41.89 0.015 69.45% -0.082 0.2846
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1003 62.25% 31.95 -0.042 62.61% -0.503 -0.0584
Rituals of Terror 3 647 73.7% 31.67 -0.105 46.83% -1.044 -0.399
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 406 80.3% 34.95 -0.035 59.85% -0.301 0.3443
Second Wave 0 4839 58.58% 26.26 -0.024 68.42% -0.704 -0.2751
The Great River 3 85 65.88% 26.55 -0.151 40.0% -1.966 -0.5025
Ward the Shores 2 588 69.39% 28.56 -0.118 44.05% -1.263 -0.2294

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 79294 63.1% 23.34 -0.007 65.13% -0.663 -0.4902
1 Thematic 4044 67.61% 31.03 -0.039 55.79% -0.79 -0.4282
2 Archipelago 5 60.0% 34.6 0.049 80.0% 0.013 0.2395
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 22824 58.68% 25.68 -0.0 68.32% -0.326 -0.2749
2 Coastline 2591 55.86% 26.86 -0.006 66.62% -0.371 -0.3634
2 Fragment 710 61.82% 24.37 -0.018 64.65% -0.561 -0.3045
2 Heart 282 60.66% 21.18 -0.024 65.25% -0.75 -0.6076
2 Opposite Shores 3798 50.19% 27.11 0.017 74.7% -0.291 -0.2005
2 Thematic 1794 58.19% 34.95 -0.02 61.98% -0.408 -0.4498
2 Top to Top 535 62.97% 26.42 -0.002 66.17% -0.211 -0.2414
3 Archipelago 3 66.67% 23.33 -0.165 33.33% -0.651 0.4305
3 Coastline 54 53.06% 32.63 -0.016 61.11% 0.1 -0.0979
3 Other 339 48.11% 25.38 0.009 75.52% -0.206 -0.0313
3 Round (Default) 10015 47.09% 29.1 0.017 75.31% 0.067 -0.0064
3 Sunrise 47 46.51% 27.74 0.052 85.11% 0.525 0.2486
3 Thematic 533 53.28% 36.86 -0.033 61.35% -0.354 -0.7559
4 Archipelago 10 90.0% 22.5 -0.247 10.0% -1.172 -0.6638
4 Coastline 20 25.0% 29.65 0.033 85.0% 0.079 0.1296
4 Leaf 42 36.84% 28.95 0.061 88.1% 0.72 0.6918
4 Other 254 41.32% 30.45 0.006 77.95% 0.165 0.0509
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 0.077 100.0% 0.498 -0.3566
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 0.151 100.0% 0.601 0.6554
4 Thematic 2051 36.54% 43.25 0.013 77.52% 0.297 -0.7877
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8209 39.11% 30.63 0.029 81.0% 0.49 0.4032
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 0.138 100.0% 0.253 1.1292
5 Other 58 45.61% 37.29 0.088 91.38% 1.511 0.9075
5 Thematic 15 26.67% 43.07 0.097 93.33% 1.264 -1.4986
6 Other 1 0.0% 40.0 0.048 100.0% 0.011 -0.1515

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4300 26.23 -0.11 48.93% -2.3 -0.2268
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3721 28.67 -0.084 54.53% -2.066 -0.1481
All Things Weaken 1427 25.7 -0.13 44.92% -2.522 -0.3516
Back Against the Wall 3587 27.7 -0.104 50.52% -2.249 -0.1578
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4015 23.53 -0.119 47.07% -2.413 -0.1883
Downward Spiral 17139 20.74 -0.076 58.39% -2.209 -0.1862
Erosion of Will 4209 25.89 -0.112 48.68% -2.351 -0.1416
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 468 31.67 0.041 82.26% -0.722 -0.0355
Memory Fades to Dust 17407 20.08 -0.106 52.82% -2.459 -0.2402
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1435 26.56 -0.088 53.8% -2.134 -0.1102
Promising Farmlands 4186 24.52 -0.116 47.97% -2.367 -0.1525
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 327 32.47 0.059 85.32% -0.37 0.0394
Thriving Communities 1382 24.97 -0.109 49.42% -2.319 -0.2247
Tipping Point 2284 24.68 -0.106 49.52% -2.275 -0.0487
Unnatural Proliferation 1491 27.99 -0.098 50.7% -2.16 -0.0736
Untended Land Crumbles 1459 25.93 -0.099 51.2% -2.23 -0.124

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 25064 59.88% 22.97 -0.011 65.55% 0.116 -0.6444
B 25420 61.05% 23.49 -0.008 66.0% 0.168 -0.689
C 30018 58.37% 25.98 0.012 69.12% 0.378 -0.7107
D 25145 56.71% 24.58 0.012 69.74% 0.358 -0.4924
E 4628 55.27% 30.13 0.02 71.59% 0.521 -0.4439
F 6431 58.35% 27.03 0.002 68.43% 0.261 -0.6529
G 5971 58.19% 27.36 -0.002 67.66% 0.219 -0.6865
H 5918 56.27% 27.42 0.009 70.13% 0.325 -0.5891
East 1764 59.99% 35.52 -0.031 60.6% -0.078 -0.7273
Northeast 2056 56.67% 36.25 -0.028 61.48% -0.089 -0.6881
Northwest 1766 55.09% 36.6 -0.013 65.23% 0.077 -0.5931
Southeast 292 47.24% 36.36 0.02 72.95% 0.315 -0.3909
Southwest 250 65.46% 25.61 -0.086 48.4% -0.652 -0.9251
West 1903 55.45% 36.22 -0.022 63.53% -0.05 -0.449

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 19892 0.0% 15.43 -0.083 56.81% -2.419 -0.3627
Not Using Events or Tokens 53743 63.79% 19.72 -0.016 65.23% -0.226 -0.0101
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5824 19.53% 33.47 0.074 90.3% 0.86 0.1728
Start of Game Growth 7612 21.25% 33.04 0.076 89.16% 0.868 0.3978
Unlimited Undo 12504 47.9% 28.0 0.036 78.52% 0.314 -0.1055
Using Tokens but Not Events 11781 46.29% 25.09 0.038 79.59% 0.13 0.0781

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 6804 43.22% 29.45 0.029 78.15% 0.076 0.1902
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5515 59.9% 28.24 0.001 71.35% -0.099 0.1069
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1827 46.67% 29.41 0.008 74.49% -0.118 -0.2239
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2523 41.08% 30.94 0.039 81.01% 0.24 -0.1529
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2115 44.22% 30.61 0.014 75.41% -0.055 -0.3455
Fractured Days Split the Sky 544 43.46% 34.52 0.022 75.92% 0.027 0.3806
Heart of the Wildfire 3458 61.53% 29.08 -0.013 67.9% -0.144 0.184
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5096 46.89% 33.15 0.015 74.04% 0.03 -0.3001
Lightning's Swift Strike 10680 46.97% 26.31 0.009 73.84% -0.158 0.078
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 871 47.18% 33.18 0.018 75.89% 0.084 -0.2032
Many Minds Move as One 669 45.85% 33.4 0.043 81.76% 0.453 -0.0778
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7537 45.71% 35.08 0.047 79.59% 0.527 0.3127
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1776 47.73% 28.91 0.003 72.69% -0.206 -0.182
River Surges in Sunlight 10238 47.14% 27.46 0.001 72.63% -0.23 -0.0993
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3881 46.94% 34.0 0.015 74.88% 0.073 0.1875
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4062 44.59% 33.28 0.014 75.36% -0.056 -0.1529
Shifting Memory of Ages 101 59.6% 31.33 0.02 72.28% 0.248 0.3385
Shroud of Silent Mist 306 54.75% 28.22 0.019 76.14% -0.03 -0.0003
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1192 51.69% 31.41 0.007 71.48% -0.0 -0.0487
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1772 44.33% 33.44 0.02 75.73% 0.061 0.2349
Thunderspeaker 5759 48.95% 30.03 0.01 73.71% -0.08 -0.0477
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 916 59.58% 28.95 -0.023 65.94% -0.363 -0.3811
Vital Strength of the Earth 8397 44.46% 24.25 -0.002 72.44% -0.35 0.504
Volcano Looming High 379 52.52% 30.98 0.007 72.82% -0.073 -0.0917

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.69%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.06%
Favors Called Due 87.51%
Mantle of Dread 85.38%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10172 22.35 9.1%
II 47678 30.84 47.65%
III 55797 34.35 81.67%
IV 23889 37.52 99.31%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 679
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 31348
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15138
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16751
Lose: Invader deck ran out 319
Lose: Adversary condition 6600
Win: Sacrifice victory 777
Lose: Scenario condition 1682
Win: Scenario condition 1453
Lose: Blight pool ran out 34689
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1307

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.195 Win Model: -0.165

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.094
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 83351 63.35% 23.71 64.68%
2 32578 57.54% 26.41 68.47%
3 10981 47.41% 29.36 74.58%
4 10626 38.66% 33.11 80.29%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.08 Win Model: -0.76
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 117661 27.36 69.72%
Power Progression 19875 14.68 54.88%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)