Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1373 65.77% 22.77 -0.063 55.43% -0.713 -0.14
Dahan Insurrection 4 1539 41.17% 47.56 -0.023 65.69% -0.596 -0.1951
Elemental Invocation 1 37 52.78% 28.16 0.007 72.97% -0.276 0.1888
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6686 25.53% 41.48 0.014 68.97% -0.095 0.2804
Powers Long Forgotten 1 902 61.45% 32.37 -0.038 63.64% -0.476 -0.0295
Rituals of Terror 3 559 73.59% 31.53 -0.107 45.97% -1.063 -0.4415
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 365 81.64% 34.48 -0.039 58.36% -0.332 0.2923
Second Wave 0 4240 59.48% 26.38 -0.022 68.28% -0.674 -0.2553
The Great River 3 35 62.86% 28.54 -0.113 48.57% -1.464 0.0205
Ward the Shores 2 504 67.14% 29.24 -0.108 45.83% -1.184 -0.1538

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 66583 63.46% 23.28 -0.006 64.91% -0.614 -0.2588
1 Thematic 3402 67.52% 31.55 -0.037 55.5% -0.564 -0.0665
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 19278 59.18% 25.57 -0.002 67.63% -0.388 -0.1988
2 Coastline 2184 56.83% 26.8 -0.005 66.44% -0.386 -0.2514
2 Fragment 631 61.52% 24.89 -0.015 65.13% -0.572 -0.146
2 Heart 242 62.93% 21.03 -0.024 64.46% -0.741 -0.4499
2 Opposite Shores 3161 51.26% 27.29 0.015 73.62% -0.337 -0.1106
2 Thematic 1574 58.85% 34.59 -0.023 60.99% -0.323 -0.2788
2 Top to Top 461 61.99% 26.78 0.0 66.38% -0.236 -0.1198
3 Coastline 46 52.38% 32.5 -0.032 58.7% -0.313 -0.3505
3 Other 284 47.58% 24.93 0.008 75.0% -0.334 0.068
3 Round (Default) 8544 47.46% 29.02 0.016 74.68% -0.073 -0.0416
3 Sunrise 40 46.15% 28.4 0.072 87.5% 0.746 0.4928
3 Thematic 464 51.51% 37.25 -0.033 61.21% -0.343 -0.6821
4 Coastline 11 36.36% 31.36 0.016 81.82% -0.128 -0.0053
4 Leaf 34 25.81% 27.47 0.043 85.29% 0.123 0.2027
4 Other 201 39.59% 32.06 0.021 81.09% 0.208 0.2889
4 Reverse Snake 4 66.67% 35.5 0.078 100.0% 0.431 -0.3612
4 Snake 2 100.0% 49.5 0.151 100.0% 0.526 0.6519
4 Thematic 1836 36.58% 43.61 0.011 76.85% 0.207 -0.8706
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6995 39.11% 30.84 0.032 81.13% 0.324 0.2914
5 Other 49 39.58% 36.71 0.092 91.84% 1.334 1.1169
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 44.5 0.131 100.0% 1.259 -1.5081

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3729 26.07 -0.111 48.22% -2.317 -0.2486
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3184 28.46 -0.084 54.3% -2.082 -0.1655
All Things Weaken 982 25.98 -0.132 43.99% -2.523 -0.3629
Back Against the Wall 3103 27.67 -0.105 49.95% -2.258 -0.1663
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3478 23.56 -0.119 46.87% -2.422 -0.2009
Downward Spiral 14816 20.82 -0.076 58.27% -2.194 -0.1801
Erosion of Will 3619 25.83 -0.113 48.22% -2.362 -0.1507
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 322 31.86 0.038 80.75% -0.751 -0.0393
Memory Fades to Dust 14980 20.13 -0.105 52.67% -2.447 -0.2311
Power Corrodes the Spirit 986 26.31 -0.094 52.23% -2.193 -0.1727
Promising Farmlands 3607 24.43 -0.116 47.63% -2.376 -0.1616
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 225 32.48 0.056 84.0% -0.405 0.0116
Thriving Communities 986 24.68 -0.111 48.58% -2.346 -0.2392
Tipping Point 2283 24.68 -0.105 49.5% -2.267 -0.0508
Unnatural Proliferation 1031 27.64 -0.1 49.85% -2.178 -0.098
Untended Land Crumbles 993 26.18 -0.101 50.35% -2.24 -0.145

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 21498 59.84% 23.02 -0.009 65.69% 0.141 -0.9324
B 21748 60.86% 23.57 -0.007 66.09% 0.19 -0.9739
C 25731 59.03% 26.03 0.011 68.68% 0.39 -1.0063
D 21576 56.77% 24.69 0.013 69.62% 0.375 -0.7829
E 3296 56.43% 30.32 0.019 70.45% 0.551 -0.7062
F 4969 59.2% 27.03 0.002 67.84% 0.293 -0.9328
G 4632 59.02% 27.17 -0.006 66.19% 0.201 -1.0115
H 4626 56.92% 27.26 0.006 68.98% 0.307 -0.9142
East 1577 59.56% 35.57 -0.031 60.18% -0.227 -1.1627
Northeast 1787 55.79% 36.4 -0.027 61.5% -0.226 -1.0954
Northwest 1598 55.71% 36.76 -0.013 64.64% -0.049 -0.9946
Southeast 215 48.36% 36.09 0.02 72.56% 0.191 -0.7917
Southwest 186 64.32% 26.78 -0.07 52.15% -0.611 -1.2361
West 1686 55.75% 36.26 -0.026 62.34% -0.227 -0.8924

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 16836 0.0% 15.56 -0.08 57.18% -2.372 -0.3331
Not Using Events or Tokens 45417 64.19% 19.75 -0.015 65.17% -0.24 -0.0201
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5057 20.14% 33.79 0.074 89.86% 0.85 0.1439
Start of Game Growth 6548 21.49% 33.43 0.076 88.88% 0.827 0.368
Unlimited Undo 10493 47.88% 28.23 0.034 78.02% 0.294 -0.1086
Using Tokens but Not Events 10064 47.41% 24.97 0.037 78.8% 0.114 0.0683

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 5976 43.04% 29.67 0.029 77.83% 0.085 0.2316
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4790 59.55% 27.99 -0.001 70.92% -0.155 0.0819
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1503 46.14% 29.47 0.007 73.85% -0.141 -0.2273
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2026 41.38% 31.36 0.038 80.06% 0.241 -0.1282
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1712 43.71% 30.75 0.02 76.46% 0.02 -0.2126
Fractured Days Split the Sky 421 43.23% 33.91 0.014 73.4% -0.094 0.2397
Heart of the Wildfire 3171 61.24% 29.23 -0.012 67.87% -0.13 0.218
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4532 47.11% 33.18 0.016 73.85% 0.04 -0.2576
Lightning's Swift Strike 8993 47.44% 26.26 0.008 73.42% -0.157 0.1118
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 447 51.01% 32.49 0.011 73.6% 0.033 -0.3277
Many Minds Move as One 490 46.2% 33.76 0.04 80.41% 0.42 -0.0936
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6617 45.89% 35.39 0.048 79.36% 0.553 0.3563
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1434 48.15% 29.21 0.006 72.66% -0.157 -0.1098
River Surges in Sunlight 8756 47.49% 27.63 0.002 72.5% -0.213 -0.0462
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3532 47.48% 33.95 0.015 74.46% 0.077 0.2259
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3680 45.3% 33.16 0.013 74.59% -0.051 -0.1157
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 946 52.23% 31.25 0.004 70.3% -0.03 -0.0491
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1449 44.9% 33.75 0.021 75.36% 0.093 0.3079
Thunderspeaker 5166 48.97% 30.17 0.01 73.5% -0.079 -0.0192
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 679 60.21% 29.05 -0.015 67.01% -0.242 -0.2059
Vital Strength of the Earth 7204 44.73% 24.5 -0.003 71.86% -0.355 0.5092
Volcano Looming High 119 53.78% 32.21 0.018 73.11% 0.193 0.0921

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.83%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.14%
Favors Called Due 87.63%
Mantle of Dread 85.42%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8800 22.34 8.64%
II 40520 30.71 47.8%
III 46879 34.23 81.51%
IV 19836 37.48 99.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 513
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24157
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11896
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12802
Lose: Invader deck ran out 261
Lose: Adversary condition 5621
Win: Sacrifice victory 639
Lose: Scenario condition 1451
Win: Scenario condition 1242
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29516
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1144

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.179 Win Model: -0.165

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.008
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 69987 63.69% 23.68 64.45%
2 27562 58.13% 26.35 67.76%
3 9377 47.67% 29.3 73.99%
4 9109 38.51% 33.48 80.36%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.079 Win Model: -0.749
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 99286 27.36 69.31%
Power Progression 16749 14.74 55.11%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)