Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1032 48.0% 30.49 -1.887 59.59% -0.731 -0.1588
Dahan Insurrection 4 1335 37.51% 50.17 7.228 55.81% -1.076 -0.675
Elemental Invocation 1 87 44.83% 30.97 -1.112 74.71% -0.378 0.0868
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9217 15.82% 45.42 3.993 68.25% -0.516 -0.1404
Powers Long Forgotten 1 704 45.22% 38.58 1.483 70.17% -0.588 -0.141
Rituals of Terror 3 618 53.02% 37.89 2.97 61.65% -0.645 -0.0229
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 430 67.6% 36.48 2.333 61.63% -0.516 0.108
Second Wave 0 5000 43.12% 30.06 -1.208 75.76% -0.604 -0.1848
The Great River 3 37 37.84% 31.19 -0.204 56.76% -1.645 -0.1605
Ward the Shores 2 900 40.6% 34.17 -0.272 59.78% -1.245 -0.214

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 45649 44.65% 31.94 -0.621 70.92% -2.817 -2.4626
1 Thematic 2579 50.1% 33.67 -0.007 59.52% -3.011 -2.5142
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 17816 46.22% 32.52 -0.316 73.87% -1.309 -1.12
2 Coastline 2417 41.56% 32.72 -0.568 78.03% -1.263 -1.1283
2 Fragment 541 47.21% 29.98 -1.537 71.35% -1.597 -1.1708
2 Heart 363 48.32% 37.67 1.587 80.44% -1.297 -1.0066
2 Opposite Shores 3661 44.79% 30.95 -1.31 71.73% -1.482 -1.2555
2 Thematic 1700 51.74% 37.28 0.56 61.24% -1.552 -1.5081
2 Top to Top 577 41.9% 36.02 0.914 80.76% -1.086 -0.9696
3 Coastline 57 26.42% 36.58 0.369 84.21% 0.271 0.233
3 Other 675 43.47% 33.01 -0.623 82.96% -0.12 0.2822
3 Round (Default) 12869 38.36% 35.66 0.22 77.05% 0.237 0.2678
3 Sunrise 56 25.0% 43.57 3.371 83.93% 0.731 0.478
3 Thematic 614 44.1% 37.52 0.259 66.94% -0.039 -0.378
4 Coastline 29 17.24% 33.48 -0.812 93.1% 1.481 1.6032
4 Leaf 54 38.89% 33.54 -1.044 81.48% 1.665 1.7448
4 Other 609 37.46% 39.0 1.048 86.54% 1.665 1.7464
4 Reverse Snake 4 0.0% 42.5 0.715 100.0% 0.329 -0.4629
4 Snake 6 66.67% 43.5 2.762 83.33% 1.148 1.2741
4 Thematic 3450 27.08% 51.1 3.965 73.28% 1.579 0.5011
4 Trapezoid (Default) 11260 33.21% 38.93 0.796 79.4% 1.633 1.6001
5 Other 264 35.91% 44.84 3.044 94.32% 3.08 2.8626
5 Thematic 49 34.69% 65.82 10.309 97.96% 3.408 0.6407

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3786 31.9 -2.155 54.36% -1.62 0.4478
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3400 35.18 -0.634 59.32% -1.347 0.57
All Things Weaken 925 31.21 -2.442 49.95% -1.779 0.381
Back Against the Wall 3405 34.16 -1.176 55.57% -1.524 0.5676
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3594 30.65 -2.866 53.7% -1.562 0.6597
Downward Spiral 6880 28.38 -2.723 61.21% -1.442 0.5721
Erosion of Will 3637 31.38 -2.409 51.5% -1.711 0.5007
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 414 37.7 0.558 75.36% -0.584 0.1274
Memory Fades to Dust 6913 27.74 -3.007 57.83% -1.617 0.5984
Power Corrodes the Spirit 968 31.73 -2.213 54.03% -1.618 0.4015
Promising Farmlands 3824 30.6 -2.719 53.79% -1.597 0.6173
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 269 38.52 1.099 79.55% -0.213 0.2043
Thriving Communities 972 32.64 -1.932 53.91% -1.513 0.5939
Tipping Point 2493 27.3 -4.275 40.03% -2.231 -0.0146
Unnatural Proliferation 1048 34.74 -0.752 58.3% -1.404 0.6764
Untended Land Crumbles 988 32.59 -1.923 52.43% -1.587 0.5086

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 17974 43.92% 32.47 -0.553 73.37% 0.122 -0.9514
B 18466 43.56% 32.55 -0.527 73.47% 0.101 -1.063
C 20833 41.24% 33.6 -0.064 74.22% 0.189 -1.2081
D 18237 41.05% 33.08 -0.293 74.28% 0.137 -1.0214
E 3427 44.89% 35.85 0.387 73.04% 0.148 -1.1083
F 6215 44.73% 35.28 0.407 74.08% 0.214 -1.0121
G 5869 42.01% 35.2 0.298 74.58% 0.19 -1.0228
H 6018 42.2% 34.9 0.17 73.11% 0.143 -1.0786
East 2197 35.86% 48.36 3.945 68.64% 0.078 -0.8574
Northeast 1764 46.17% 38.0 0.977 62.64% -0.206 -1.0751
Northwest 1615 42.05% 39.3 1.137 67.49% -0.096 -1.0413
Southeast 257 48.25% 38.01 0.488 70.04% 0.04 -0.9426
Southwest 263 41.06% 34.49 -2.119 63.5% -0.603 -1.2279
West 2166 37.51% 43.3 1.843 65.6% -0.37 -1.0351

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2705 0.0% 20.52 -5.621 73.57% -1.834 0.2049
Not Using Events or Tokens 11662 41.48% 26.04 -3.041 77.79% -0.237 -0.0171
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4441 13.36% 44.68 2.811 87.89% 0.441 -0.2644
Start of Game Growth 6504 15.53% 42.64 1.934 86.05% 0.219 -0.2405
Unlimited Undo 13344 34.04% 42.6 3.779 83.3% 0.865 0.4624
Using Tokens but Not Events 10188 33.91% 29.11 -2.325 80.19% -0.014 -0.0597

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 17811 32.13% 37.81 1.021 79.51% 0.104 0.2509
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4284 47.97% 34.23 -0.623 71.87% -0.328 -0.0916
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2441 38.0% 37.13 0.379 76.16% -0.075 -0.1618
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2627 33.95% 37.45 0.906 80.51% 0.191 -0.1782
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2246 34.58% 35.27 -0.402 76.18% -0.273 -0.506
Fractured Days Split the Sky 922 27.22% 51.94 6.283 85.03% 0.633 0.9668
Heart of the Wildfire 5664 53.51% 31.9 -1.594 70.23% -0.356 -0.0086
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8993 36.53% 38.43 0.592 75.9% -0.047 -0.3446
Lightning's Swift Strike 8443 36.64% 38.24 1.173 79.08% 0.133 0.4015
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 920 36.09% 43.91 1.893 78.91% 0.022 -0.3384
Many Minds Move as One 719 40.36% 39.25 1.077 79.55% 0.121 -0.3926
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10635 35.11% 40.88 1.735 77.56% 0.115 -0.0824
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2529 38.98% 37.63 0.598 76.87% 0.01 0.057
River Surges in Sunlight 7605 35.87% 38.06 0.765 75.99% -0.184 -0.0168
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3532 47.48% 33.95 -0.614 74.46% -0.204 0.2457
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4888 36.87% 36.59 -0.034 74.55% -0.243 -0.3076
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1903 43.42% 36.79 -0.579 73.31% -0.31 -0.3285
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1931 36.57% 39.07 1.354 80.22% 0.203 0.4184
Thunderspeaker 5958 37.78% 36.95 0.509 76.22% -0.039 0.0205
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1190 54.4% 35.39 -0.778 69.92% -0.228 -0.1919
Vital Strength of the Earth 6184 31.93% 37.82 0.269 75.5% -0.299 0.5658
Volcano Looming High 223 50.22% 35.22 -0.983 68.16% -0.25 -0.3509

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.41%
Elemental Aegis 98.36%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.4%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.47%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14599 22.34 4.87%
II 23973 30.71 53.01%
III 40652 34.23 92.96%
IV 26077 37.48 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 453
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 23344
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7640
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16643
Lose: Invader deck ran out 555
Lose: Adversary condition 10585
Win: Sacrifice victory 721
Lose: Scenario condition 2339
Win: Scenario condition 1273
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12369
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2334

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.679 Win Model: -0.186

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.437 Win Model: -1.216
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 48782 44.95% 32.22 70.58%
2 26852 45.95% 32.45 73.1%
3 14205 38.59% 35.81 77.01%
4 15462 31.88% 41.67 78.39%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)