Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1189 47.44% 31.08 -1.776 58.96% -0.732 -0.1667
Dahan Insurrection 4 1559 36.01% 51.47 7.575 57.6% -1.043 -0.6425
Despicable Theft 2 22 50.0% 35.5 1.46 63.64% -0.666 -0.3917
Elemental Invocation 1 313 46.79% 29.15 -2.411 72.52% -0.531 -0.0281
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10530 15.25% 46.68 4.174 69.43% -0.501 -0.1362
Powers Long Forgotten 1 971 36.36% 42.84 2.43 75.9% -0.515 -0.0682
Rituals of Terror 3 678 53.79% 38.07 3.002 61.8% -0.652 -0.0066
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 463 66.88% 36.42 2.273 61.77% -0.529 0.1175
Second Wave 0 5561 42.37% 30.0 -1.333 75.98% -0.629 -0.1988
The Great River 3 87 33.33% 34.97 1.208 67.82% -1.481 -0.0081
Ward the Shores 2 1023 40.41% 34.36 -0.291 59.73% -1.249 -0.2175

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 53417 44.87% 31.85 -0.706 71.07% -2.798 -2.7118
1 Thematic 2970 49.07% 33.74 -0.162 61.04% -2.781 -2.5045
2 Archipelago 9 55.56% 34.11 0.876 66.67% -1.578 -1.5714
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 20941 46.26% 32.76 -0.316 74.09% -1.297 -1.2716
2 Coastline 2929 41.37% 33.09 -0.479 78.56% -1.238 -1.2631
2 Fragment 622 48.25% 30.47 -1.479 71.38% -1.582 -1.359
2 Heart 438 48.27% 38.41 1.802 81.51% -1.232 -1.1322
2 Opposite Shores 4327 45.03% 30.93 -1.413 71.67% -1.483 -1.4174
2 Thematic 1978 51.57% 36.96 0.267 61.07% -1.385 -1.452
2 Top to Top 708 42.63% 36.44 0.956 80.08% -1.167 -1.2356
3 Archipelago 10 40.0% 41.4 1.021 60.0% -0.895 -0.0902
3 Coastline 78 30.14% 34.56 -0.514 82.05% 0.046 -0.1049
3 Other 938 43.84% 35.23 0.161 84.75% -0.018 0.1549
3 Round (Default) 15275 38.06% 35.87 0.181 77.21% 0.212 0.1734
3 Sunrise 61 28.33% 41.93 2.625 81.97% 0.586 0.3261
3 Thematic 745 43.17% 41.07 1.27 68.59% 0.258 -0.108
4 Archipelago 17 52.94% 36.65 -1.17 52.94% -0.368 0.1803
4 Coastline 58 13.79% 34.53 -0.715 93.1% 1.731 1.851
4 Leaf 68 41.79% 34.88 -0.853 80.88% 1.611 1.6833
4 Other 795 37.8% 39.7 1.196 87.04% 1.644 1.5749
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 46.0 2.213 100.0% 0.453 -0.3487
4 Snake 7 57.14% 40.57 1.527 85.71% 1.15 1.2766
4 Thematic 4294 24.32% 53.6 4.416 76.8% 1.838 0.8414
4 Trapezoid (Default) 13325 33.07% 39.11 0.733 79.57% 1.588 1.5959
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 43.25 0.154 50.0% 0.093 1.2523
5 Other 378 38.61% 45.54 3.204 94.18% 3.109 2.6486
5 Thematic 102 25.49% 65.61 9.068 93.14% 3.163 0.7716
6 Archipelago 1 100.0% 95.0 24.287 100.0% 0.613 0.979
6 Other 5 40.0% 57.0 6.443 100.0% 0.8 0.6225
6 Thematic 1 0.0% 90.0 23.368 100.0% 0.506 0.3013

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4354 32.16 -2.097 54.57% -1.615 0.4541
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3948 35.42 -0.564 59.68% -1.338 0.5752
All Things Weaken 1330 31.5 -2.42 50.45% -1.771 0.3885
Back Against the Wall 3944 34.42 -1.103 56.09% -1.499 0.5885
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4132 30.87 -2.812 54.16% -1.556 0.666
Downward Spiral 7856 28.44 -2.727 61.25% -1.438 0.5835
Erosion of Will 4280 31.44 -2.43 51.68% -1.71 0.4971
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 620 37.43 0.38 76.13% -0.553 0.1254
Memory Fades to Dust 7881 27.88 -2.969 58.1% -1.611 0.6038
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1404 32.6 -1.923 55.48% -1.558 0.463
Promising Farmlands 4388 30.75 -2.682 54.19% -1.595 0.613
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 384 37.94 0.712 79.43% -0.276 0.1359
Thriving Communities 1398 32.91 -1.909 54.65% -1.503 0.5846
Tipping Point 2495 27.31 -4.275 40.04% -2.231 -0.0059
Unnatural Proliferation 1511 35.04 -0.732 58.11% -1.41 0.6706
Untended Land Crumbles 1430 32.41 -2.142 52.66% -1.606 0.4964

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 20573 44.21% 32.57 -0.568 73.62% 0.223 -0.4651
B 21077 43.54% 32.56 -0.566 73.83% 0.203 -0.581
C 23941 41.12% 33.62 -0.118 74.6% 0.29 -0.7227
D 20684 41.06% 33.09 -0.338 74.47% 0.239 -0.5382
E 5034 44.41% 35.99 0.323 73.2% 0.244 -0.6501
F 8042 44.49% 35.33 0.331 74.24% 0.288 -0.553
G 7541 41.86% 35.3 0.24 74.46% 0.259 -0.5734
H 7776 42.73% 35.11 0.15 73.43% 0.245 -0.5943
East 2672 33.33% 51.56 4.574 71.52% 0.025 -0.5511
Northeast 2221 41.24% 40.9 1.618 67.18% -0.293 -0.8174
Northwest 1771 42.55% 39.21 0.95 67.31% -0.263 -0.8586
Southeast 368 43.21% 39.88 0.622 70.38% -0.182 -0.8116
Southwest 365 37.26% 36.98 -1.649 66.3% -0.703 -0.9014
West 2443 37.27% 43.95 1.738 66.76% -0.495 -0.822

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3082 0.0% 20.5 -5.661 74.08% -1.847 0.206
Not Using Events or Tokens 13735 40.67% 25.99 -3.061 78.33% -0.228 -0.0131
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5489 12.32% 46.53 2.98 88.56% 0.425 -0.261
Start of Game Growth 8147 14.26% 44.07 2.191 86.67% 0.302 -0.167
Unlimited Undo 15725 34.16% 42.97 3.732 84.03% 0.898 0.4751
Using Tokens but Not Events 11563 33.55% 29.41 -2.29 80.57% -0.02 -0.071

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 20788 31.83% 38.3 0.997 79.68% 0.095 0.1994
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4729 47.76% 34.28 -0.699 72.19% -0.342 -0.1444
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3129 36.36% 37.19 0.377 78.04% -0.051 -0.165
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3413 32.93% 37.24 0.743 81.75% 0.169 -0.235
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2824 34.59% 36.47 -0.052 77.83% -0.183 -0.4887
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1645 25.12% 55.4 6.665 83.47% 0.479 0.8273
Heart of the Wildfire 6349 53.63% 32.11 -1.642 70.23% -0.356 -0.0372
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 10522 35.54% 39.15 0.673 76.71% -0.043 -0.3856
Lightning's Swift Strike 9684 36.64% 38.51 1.147 79.52% 0.153 0.3784
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1804 36.25% 43.75 1.729 78.49% 0.067 -0.2196
Many Minds Move as One 1146 37.07% 39.75 1.098 81.76% 0.113 -0.4204
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 12001 34.72% 41.25 1.681 77.87% 0.104 -0.1206
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3020 39.21% 37.49 0.47 77.45% 0.022 0.0364
River Surges in Sunlight 8837 34.96% 38.71 0.838 77.06% -0.167 -0.0461
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3921 46.93% 34.0 -0.723 74.93% -0.197 0.208
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5479 36.21% 37.31 0.05 75.47% -0.204 -0.3164
Shifting Memory of Ages 976 45.18% 46.48 3.955 76.23% 0.255 0.3798
Shroud of Silent Mist 476 39.37% 37.52 0.025 74.16% -0.122 -0.0653
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2437 43.83% 36.77 -0.768 73.41% -0.323 -0.3828
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2333 35.7% 38.61 1.06 81.05% 0.185 0.346
Thunderspeaker 6911 36.35% 37.57 0.542 77.12% -0.043 -0.0191
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1465 54.4% 35.35 -0.946 69.83% -0.257 -0.2845
Vital Strength of the Earth 6960 31.67% 38.31 0.233 75.99% -0.3 0.5444
Volcano Looming High 734 50.0% 36.7 -0.923 70.03% -0.333 -0.3228

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.17%
Elemental Aegis 98.33%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.85%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.66%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17121 22.37 5.69%
II 28338 30.88 53.53%
III 47908 34.39 93.06%
IV 31141 37.55 99.38%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 716
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29977
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10002
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 21609
Lose: Invader deck ran out 652
Lose: Adversary condition 12525
Win: Sacrifice victory 831
Lose: Scenario condition 2593
Win: Scenario condition 1498
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14444
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2616

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.708 Win Model: -0.187

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.478 Win Model: -1.2
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 57160 45.11% 32.16 70.85%
2 31753 46.03% 32.7 73.36%
3 16955 38.31% 36.18 77.24%
4 18640 31.04% 42.56 79.36%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)