Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 34 29.41% 27.5 70.59% -0.091 -0.2081 -0.343
Blitz 0 1191 46.91% 32.68 54.32% -0.579 -0.3777 -0.964
Dahan Insurrection 4 1378 36.78% 52.07 54.43% -1.316 -1.5639 -0.18
Despicable Theft 2 46 43.48% 35.09 69.57% -0.296 0.4111 -0.411
Elemental Invocation 1 510 47.04% 28.64 71.18% -0.655 0.1261 -1.343
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8926 13.75% 48.24 71.9% -0.018 -0.7514 0.316
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1068 27.53% 47.0 81.84% -0.118 0.4076 -0.453
Rituals of Terror 3 544 52.04% 40.13 66.36% -0.038 -0.0779 -0.226
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 347 65.42% 37.29 62.25% -0.562 0.4949 -0.641
Second Wave 0 4853 39.29% 30.05 78.14% 0.183 0.2964 0.018
The Great River 3 131 35.88% 33.27 63.36% -1.664 -0.2633 -0.535
Varied Terrains 2 45 53.33% 31.29 60.0% -0.097 0.5234 -0.86
Ward the Shores 2 952 33.65% 34.96 64.92% -1.957 -0.8389 -0.566

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 48662 40.94% 34.18 75.35% -0.14 0.7464 -0.133
B 51352 40.65% 34.46 75.28% 0.116 0.8924 -0.212
C 53284 39.7% 34.73 75.64% 0.297 0.9258 -0.057
D 48058 39.7% 34.33 75.81% 0.072 0.9023 -0.106
E 16080 40.18% 37.45 75.26% 0.36 1.0036 0.001
F 22376 40.53% 36.43 74.79% 0.194 0.9315 0.009
G 20926 39.59% 36.61 75.87% 0.345 1.1115 0.0
H 21137 40.07% 36.67 75.28% 0.046 0.7317 -0.035
East 10212 34.74% 45.66 70.62% -0.364 0.3521 0.502
Northeast 7623 31.89% 47.97 72.48% -0.205 0.6895 -0.318
Northwest 6905 29.95% 48.37 73.41% -0.124 0.5004 -0.326
Southeast 1696 33.39% 43.81 72.64% 0.103 0.7855 -0.356
Southwest 1623 33.48% 41.75 70.86% 0.188 1.4717 -0.571
West 9717 33.77% 45.66 70.58% 0.034 1.0568 -0.747

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3674 0.0% 20.13 73.84% -0.646 0.18 0.141
Not Using Events or Tokens 16914 40.18% 26.04 78.1% -0.069 0.2474 -0.092
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6826 11.57% 47.16 87.81% 0.714 0.1592 -1.101
Start of Game Growth 10359 14.2% 45.15 85.53% 0.025 -0.4062 0.669
Unlimited Undo 19176 34.06% 43.18 83.74% 0.134 0.0172 1.796
Using Tokens but Not Events 14193 32.15% 29.32 80.43% 0.049 -0.0306 -0.244

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.03%
Elemental Aegis 98.28%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.88%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.43%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22553 21.5 5.95%
II 35217 31.06 53.61%
III 59703 34.72 93.18%
IV 38533 38.0 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1336
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 54085
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18249
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 37686
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1026
Lose: Invader deck ran out 778
Lose: Adversary condition 15946
Win: Sacrifice victory 1024
Lose: Scenario condition 3061
Win: Scenario condition 1788
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17954
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3073

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.099 Win Model: 0.345
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 71326 45.32% 32.38 70.08%
2 39254 45.87% 32.75 73.04%
3 21341 38.13% 36.47 77.18%
4 22096 31.19% 42.27 79.23%
5 395 25.7% 33.3 78.99%
6 1594 22.56% 43.07 76.73%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-21 03:39:51 (Pacific Time)