Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 50.0% 31.08 83.33% 0.288 0.0858 0.0
Blitz 0 1090 48.36% 32.49 54.77% -0.465 -0.2079 -1.019
Dahan Insurrection 4 1257 36.42% 52.32 56.32% -0.75 -0.3367 -0.163
Despicable Theft 2 42 40.48% 36.29 71.43% 0.571 1.0171 -0.388
Elemental Invocation 1 457 47.03% 28.99 71.77% -0.271 0.2152 -1.237
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8154 13.89% 48.73 72.61% -0.632 -0.3263 0.123
Powers Long Forgotten 1 893 31.35% 45.54 79.62% -0.075 0.1069 -0.433
Rituals of Terror 3 486 53.83% 40.04 65.23% -0.764 -0.6427 -0.169
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 334 65.27% 37.11 62.57% -0.489 -0.0736 -0.541
Second Wave 0 4419 39.85% 29.88 77.98% -0.196 0.3695 -0.073
The Great River 3 118 36.44% 34.34 66.1% -0.778 0.62 -0.332
Varied Terrains 2 20 55.0% 37.55 55.0% -0.543 -0.0174 -0.417
Ward the Shores 2 902 34.18% 35.26 65.63% -0.835 0.3269 -0.614

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 61989 45.34% 32.15 70.51% -0.363 0.6528 -0.452
1 Thematic 3325 48.02% 33.48 62.26% -0.214 0.9587 -0.849
2 Archipelago 51 56.0% 36.12 62.75% 0.161 1.1443 -0.178
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24052 46.72% 32.92 73.94% -0.416 0.3349 -0.393
2 Coastline 3343 41.44% 33.18 78.16% -0.044 0.5585 -0.121
2 Fragment 715 49.42% 30.95 72.31% 1.573 2.021 -0.094
2 Heart 488 47.83% 37.7 81.56% -0.027 0.5112 0.799
2 Opposite Shores 5006 45.05% 31.26 71.83% -0.488 0.504 -0.74
2 Thematic 2184 50.9% 37.08 60.99% -0.744 -0.0452 -0.87
2 Top to Top 834 43.13% 36.32 79.5% 0.037 0.5478 0.081
3 Archipelago 32 34.38% 39.66 68.75% 0.17 0.343 -1.663
3 Coastline 100 31.58% 33.17 80.0% 1.073 0.2904 0.643
3 Other 1043 44.13% 34.99 83.99% 0.569 0.5337 0.621
3 Round (Default) 17688 38.0% 36.15 77.69% -0.5 0.0945 -0.082
3 Sunrise 74 29.17% 39.39 81.08% -0.396 -0.3594 0.202
3 Thematic 884 40.75% 41.32 71.38% 0.276 0.2386 -0.152
4 Archipelago 36 44.44% 35.53 66.67% 0.105 -0.6064 -1.466
4 Coastline 70 15.71% 33.54 90.0% 0.661 0.7777 0.575
4 Leaf 79 44.87% 34.28 79.75% -0.318 0.2443 -0.172
4 Other 900 37.75% 38.91 85.89% -0.533 -0.7871 0.963
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 41.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 7 57.14% 40.57 85.71% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 4717 24.15% 53.39 76.87% -1.292 -0.7626 -0.386
4 Trapezoid (Default) 14939 33.4% 39.14 79.62% -0.664 -0.6907 -0.318
5 Archipelago 10 50.0% 45.7 70.0% -0.157 -0.736 -0.407
5 Coastline 7 0.0% 30.86 100.0% 0.003 -0.5617 0.0
5 Other 611 31.74% 42.03 90.83% -0.79 -0.6222 0.307
5 Thematic 148 29.73% 62.3 87.16% 0.007 -0.2699 0.652
6 Archipelago 24 34.78% 37.42 100.0% 0.023 -0.2327 0.217
6 Coastline 3 66.67% 38.67 100.0% 0.232 -0.357 0.0
6 Other 112 25.89% 35.17 78.57% -1.568 -0.7588 -0.592
6 Star 67 23.88% 39.7 85.07% 0.223 1.0068 -0.327
6 Thematic 257 22.96% 45.1 79.77% -1.15 -1.4286 -0.23
6 Two Centers (Default) 484 19.83% 50.17 82.02% -0.602 -0.6957 -1.18
7 Archipelago 7 42.86% 67.71 85.71% -0.406 -0.983 -0.238
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 2 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.216 -0.9366 0.006

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4946 32.52 54.63% -1.176 0.7266 -0.52
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4511 35.51 58.9% -1.264 0.4655 -0.104
All Things Weaken 1781 31.36 49.24% -1.753 0.232 -0.767
Back Against the Wall 4555 34.68 55.59% -1.215 0.602 -0.489
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4767 30.89 53.85% -1.711 0.3398 -0.595
Downward Spiral 8947 28.73 60.91% -1.446 0.5468 -0.352
Erosion of Will 4903 31.52 51.11% -1.503 0.5796 -0.781
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 808 38.56 77.35% 0.191 0.6318 0.117
Memory Fades to Dust 8920 28.06 57.9% -1.297 0.7874 -0.439
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1834 33.07 55.51% -1.319 0.6192 -0.566
Promising Farmlands 5075 31.04 53.5% -1.761 0.2848 -0.675
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 526 39.2 80.23% 0.22 0.645 -0.209
Thriving Communities 1853 33.45 54.67% -1.332 0.6514 -0.512
Tipping Point 2495 27.31 40.04% 0.0 -0.1175 -1.175
Unnatural Proliferation 1978 35.76 57.99% -1.097 0.8678 -0.465
Untended Land Crumbles 1901 32.7 53.76% -1.022 0.9709 -0.578

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 45418 41.21% 34.3 75.8% 0.032 0.8291 -0.104
B 47956 40.94% 34.58 75.66% -0.1 0.6431 -0.221
C 49670 39.99% 34.78 75.97% 0.142 0.7106 -0.038
D 44967 39.91% 34.45 76.21% -0.221 0.575 -0.085
E 13729 40.71% 37.72 75.89% 0.374 1.0212 -0.006
F 19847 40.87% 36.6 75.54% 0.149 0.873 0.057
G 18720 39.83% 36.69 76.29% -0.147 0.5846 -0.003
H 18984 40.38% 36.83 75.81% 0.049 0.7618 -0.059
East 9451 35.37% 45.95 70.81% -0.705 0.0636 0.447
Northeast 7033 32.51% 48.33 72.71% -0.08 0.7798 -0.429
Northwest 6364 30.45% 48.68 73.6% -0.378 0.6987 -0.387
Southeast 1395 33.69% 45.06 75.2% -0.467 0.2389 -0.33
Southwest 1325 33.36% 42.99 73.21% -0.837 0.2882 -0.748
West 8976 34.38% 45.95 70.71% -0.649 0.3054 -0.881

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3398 0.0% 20.44 74.63% -1.267 0.8626 0.038
Not Using Events or Tokens 15720 40.73% 26.13 78.44% 0.204 0.379 -0.178
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6267 11.88% 47.16 88.61% -0.48 -0.6221 -0.382
Start of Game Growth 9585 14.34% 45.09 86.45% 1.094 0.3334 0.707
Unlimited Undo 17966 34.3% 43.44 84.35% 1.069 0.4648 1.819
Using Tokens but Not Events 13103 33.01% 29.47 80.65% 0.088 -0.0686 -0.192

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 23905 100.0% 38.39 100.0% 0.332 0.2172 0.144
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5198 100.0% 34.35 100.0% -0.121 -0.0252 -0.363
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3652 100.0% 36.64 100.0% -0.273 -0.434 -0.225
Downpour Drenches the World 197 100.0% 47.12 100.0% 0.182 0.4343 0.458
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4166 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.201 -0.6389 -0.064
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3321 100.0% 36.37 100.0% -0.129 -0.6168 -0.243
Finder of Paths Unseen 108 100.0% 45.73 100.0% 1.152 1.515 0.691
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2353 100.0% 55.72 100.0% 0.672 0.7279 0.623
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 484 100.0% 37.8 100.0% 0.499 0.467 0.209
Heart of the Wildfire 6995 100.0% 32.02 100.0% 0.191 0.3659 -0.062
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 11955 100.0% 39.47 100.0% 0.071 -0.3849 0.157
Lightning's Swift Strike 9505 109.67% 37.86 102.94% -0.029 0.2452 0.444
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 72 36.11% 46.78 79.17% 0.342 -0.4345 1.174
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 442 36.65% 39.63 82.35% 0.181 -0.4618 0.495
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 925 35.68% 46.38 79.89% -0.504 -0.7701 0.507
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2802 100.0% 42.01 100.0% -0.406 -0.6731 -0.188
Many Minds Move as One 1469 100.0% 38.36 100.0% -0.221 -0.8234 -0.2
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 13515 100.0% 41.2 100.0% 0.224 0.0392 0.471
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3501 100.0% 36.87 100.0% 0.362 0.3824 -0.073
River Surges in Sunlight 9110 106.9% 38.8 102.28% 0.187 0.1529 0.062
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 894 32.85% 43.5 78.19% 0.225 0.6562 -0.534
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 55 41.82% 45.45 76.36% -0.072 -0.3727 0.168
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3704 109.17% 33.22 103.67% -0.111 0.2989 -0.743
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 16 43.75% 34.13 62.5% -0.436 -0.4292 -0.013
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 8 37.5% 35.5 87.5% -0.055 -0.4018 0.379
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 288 46.5% 36.52 76.74% 0.52 0.5393 -0.401
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 291 40.14% 38.49 78.69% -1.245 -1.0618 0.047
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6136 100.0% 37.92 100.0% 0.154 -0.1332 0.08
Shifting Memory of Ages 2592 100.0% 45.6 100.0% 0.225 0.3 0.232
Shroud of Silent Mist 848 100.0% 34.52 100.0% 0.102 0.3382 -0.507
Starlight Seeks its Form 971 100.0% 45.69 100.0% -0.358 -0.4976 0.141
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2957 100.0% 36.64 100.0% -0.202 -0.3839 -0.467
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2713 100.0% 38.46 100.0% -0.422 -0.2369 0.402
Thunderspeaker 7829 100.0% 37.68 100.0% 0.238 0.3019 -0.343
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1790 100.0% 34.58 100.0% -0.275 -0.3658 -0.698
Vital Strength of the Earth 7337 104.05% 38.23 101.96% -0.326 0.4825 0.017
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 105 30.48% 54.52 68.57% -0.275 0.1113 -0.494
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 406 44.55% 35.68 72.66% 0.379 1.5538 -0.768
Volcano Looming High 1204 100.0% 35.85 100.0% -0.393 -0.3975 -0.463

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.01%
Elemental Aegis 98.27%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.92%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.52%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 20125 22.56 5.83%
II 32788 30.98 53.47%
III 55464 34.53 93.11%
IV 35939 37.77 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1166
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 50175
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16920
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 35131
Lose: Invader deck ran out 735
Lose: Adversary condition 14848
Win: Sacrifice victory 966
Lose: Scenario condition 2891
Win: Scenario condition 1720
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16847
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2917

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.561 Win Model: -0.207

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.417 Win Model: 0.291
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 66226 45.51% 32.42 70.37%
2 36431 46.31% 32.86 73.29%
3 19667 38.26% 36.43 77.61%
4 20839 31.15% 42.43 79.46%
5 228 19.82% 33.53 85.09%
6 925 21.86% 46.17 82.16%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)