Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 26 34.62% 29.08 73.08% -0.337 -0.3306 0.0
Blitz 0 1158 47.46% 33.03 54.32% -0.662 -0.1665 -1.039
Dahan Insurrection 4 1340 36.85% 52.67 55.37% -0.784 -0.7163 -0.234
Despicable Theft 2 44 43.18% 35.98 70.45% 0.0 0.4679 -0.416
Elemental Invocation 1 489 47.42% 29.01 71.57% -0.64 -0.0954 -1.318
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8590 13.91% 48.6 72.42% -0.521 -0.329 0.087
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1037 27.97% 47.19 82.06% 0.907 1.3393 -0.46
Rituals of Terror 3 521 52.32% 40.6 66.41% 0.508 0.26 -0.174
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 343 65.6% 37.33 62.39% -0.268 -0.1658 -0.565
Second Wave 0 4704 39.58% 30.03 78.19% -0.288 0.281 -0.031
The Great River 3 125 37.6% 34.58 65.6% -0.732 0.9809 -0.462
Varied Terrains 2 34 58.82% 34.47 58.82% -0.412 0.3269 -0.552
Ward the Shores 2 932 33.94% 35.34 65.88% -0.492 0.3315 -0.625

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 64902 45.38% 32.24 70.54% -0.03 0.4964 -0.375
1 Thematic 3451 47.53% 33.49 62.53% -0.237 0.6882 -0.734
2 Archipelago 68 52.24% 33.57 52.94% -2.009 -1.0254 -1.833
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25125 46.6% 33.01 74.13% -0.192 0.2158 -0.422
2 Coastline 3536 41.45% 33.44 78.48% 0.842 0.8879 -0.093
2 Fragment 741 49.09% 30.97 72.33% 0.337 0.4821 0.077
2 Heart 537 48.5% 37.72 79.89% -0.258 0.1838 0.293
2 Opposite Shores 5258 44.57% 31.43 72.31% -0.258 0.1331 -0.771
2 Thematic 2258 51.13% 37.14 61.03% -0.498 0.3248 -0.845
2 Top to Top 891 43.18% 36.25 78.79% -0.603 -0.5891 -0.013
3 Archipelago 36 33.33% 38.86 72.22% 0.09 -0.3545 -1.702
3 Coastline 104 31.63% 33.37 80.77% 0.302 0.0775 0.487
3 Other 1068 43.74% 34.92 83.9% 0.334 -0.5634 0.713
3 Round (Default) 18673 38.16% 36.36 77.66% -0.581 -0.4368 -0.261
3 Sunrise 76 31.08% 39.37 81.58% 0.135 -0.1275 0.115
3 Thematic 927 39.93% 41.46 71.95% -0.309 0.0574 -0.206
4 Archipelago 43 37.21% 34.7 72.09% 0.085 0.3114 -1.525
4 Coastline 79 14.1% 32.53 91.14% 0.621 0.1623 0.647
4 Leaf 84 45.78% 33.8 79.76% -0.29 -0.4086 -0.602
4 Other 920 37.91% 38.72 85.76% 0.092 -0.5131 0.792
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 41.83 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 7 57.14% 40.57 85.71% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 4918 23.67% 53.54 77.27% -0.181 -0.083 -0.621
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15498 33.52% 39.23 79.73% -0.821 -0.6573 -0.587
5 Archipelago 10 50.0% 45.7 70.0% 0.128 -0.0959 -0.454
5 Coastline 10 0.0% 30.3 100.0% 0.123 -0.5429 0.226
5 Other 690 33.04% 41.85 88.99% -0.043 -0.7273 0.025
5 Thematic 155 31.61% 61.39 87.1% 0.307 -0.2655 0.435
6 Archipelago 32 25.81% 43.66 96.88% -0.425 -0.2175 -0.288
6 Coastline 3 66.67% 38.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.7468 0.0
6 Other 170 30.18% 37.11 80.0% -0.345 -0.5906 -0.962
6 Star 95 25.26% 38.46 83.16% -0.414 0.7933 -1.0
6 Thematic 347 25.36% 46.13 78.39% -0.106 0.0509 -0.403
6 Two Centers (Default) 651 20.31% 49.16 82.03% -0.653 -0.4439 -1.412
7 Archipelago 10 50.0% 68.9 90.0% 0.124 0.2263 0.035
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 7 42.86% 29.57 85.71% -0.584 -0.8291 -0.256

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5142 32.75 54.76% -1.279 0.7123 -0.538
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4707 35.82 59.29% -0.659 1.108 -0.114
All Things Weaken 1967 32.25 50.28% -1.201 0.8704 -0.645
Back Against the Wall 4763 34.82 55.95% -1.396 0.5377 -0.49
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4968 30.94 53.82% -1.375 0.7222 -0.625
Downward Spiral 9286 28.76 60.92% -1.451 0.4584 -0.397
Erosion of Will 5107 31.68 51.32% -1.478 0.6165 -0.773
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 891 38.55 77.33% -0.417 0.1102 0.108
Memory Fades to Dust 9236 28.16 57.99% -1.534 0.5709 -0.465
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2008 33.41 55.93% -1.143 0.7846 -0.575
Promising Farmlands 5266 31.3 53.76% -1.162 0.8649 -0.661
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 591 39.53 80.54% 0.549 1.0544 -0.12
Thriving Communities 2026 33.52 54.24% -1.695 0.3696 -0.562
Tipping Point 2495 27.31 40.04% 0.0 0.0 -1.199
Unnatural Proliferation 2167 36.05 57.96% -1.441 0.4946 -0.46
Untended Land Crumbles 2069 32.91 53.75% -1.409 0.6229 -0.602

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 47344 41.22% 34.4 75.89% 0.119 0.8039 -0.11
B 49958 40.88% 34.68 75.75% 0.16 0.8191 -0.199
C 51827 39.92% 34.9 76.03% 0.338 0.7734 -0.053
D 46800 39.93% 34.53 76.24% 0.15 0.8217 -0.098
E 15179 40.53% 37.86 76.01% 0.276 0.7718 -0.014
F 21361 40.87% 36.76 75.5% 0.164 0.7904 0.03
G 20046 39.77% 36.88 76.49% 0.359 0.9141 -0.005
H 20267 40.4% 36.96 75.92% 0.108 0.7264 -0.027
East 9912 34.96% 46.09 71.19% 0.139 0.6944 0.418
Northeast 7412 32.04% 48.46 73.11% -0.185 0.4198 -0.442
Northwest 6715 30.09% 48.8 73.94% -0.672 -0.1971 -0.472
Southeast 1550 34.13% 45.24 74.97% -0.062 0.5793 -0.479
Southwest 1475 33.97% 43.08 73.22% -0.085 0.7894 -0.754
West 9431 34.0% 46.06 71.06% -0.254 0.4934 -0.932

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3550 0.0% 20.35 74.45% -2.253 -0.0485 -0.142
Not Using Events or Tokens 16429 40.51% 26.23 78.56% 0.174 0.4058 -0.163
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6597 11.71% 47.41 88.72% 0.184 -0.9442 -0.444
Start of Game Growth 10072 14.33% 45.34 86.29% 0.23 -0.2067 0.623
Unlimited Undo 18692 34.38% 43.45 84.45% 0.823 0.3212 1.808
Using Tokens but Not Events 13760 32.61% 29.48 80.87% 0.375 0.5266 -0.22

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 24937 100.0% 38.5 100.0% 0.346 0.2415 0.169
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5369 100.0% 34.48 100.0% 0.208 0.2687 -0.353
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3829 100.0% 36.58 100.0% 0.274 0.0658 -0.175
Downpour Drenches the World 470 100.0% 45.95 100.0% -0.296 0.0364 0.111
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4425 100.0% 37.07 100.0% -0.059 -0.564 -0.006
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3469 100.0% 36.37 100.0% 0.945 0.3803 -0.22
Finder of Paths Unseen 246 100.0% 43.85 100.0% -0.494 -0.1865 0.407
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2638 100.0% 55.78 100.0% 0.354 0.3158 0.565
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 627 100.0% 37.97 100.0% 0.059 -0.0305 0.257
Heart of the Wildfire 7222 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.649 -0.3027 -0.061
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12540 100.0% 39.72 100.0% -0.351 -0.8966 0.15
Lightning's Swift Strike 9717 111.43% 37.81 103.38% -0.018 0.3518 0.458
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 253 30.68% 41.76 81.82% 0.315 -0.4666 0.475
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 464 36.85% 39.69 82.54% 0.555 0.0482 0.452
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1016 36.43% 46.59 80.22% 0.779 0.2389 0.556
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3109 100.0% 41.68 100.0% -0.253 -0.3314 -0.163
Many Minds Move as One 1571 100.0% 38.35 100.0% -0.029 -0.6713 -0.222
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 14030 100.0% 41.24 100.0% 0.0 -0.1402 0.475
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3678 100.0% 36.89 100.0% 0.063 0.0545 -0.071
River Surges in Sunlight 9453 107.96% 39.04 102.77% -0.091 -0.2158 0.079
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 991 31.85% 43.35 77.7% -0.732 -0.3316 -0.461
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 154 47.4% 46.77 73.38% 0.015 -0.3403 -0.005
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3773 110.03% 33.25 103.98% -0.078 0.3409 -0.719
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 37 41.67% 37.35 70.27% 0.135 0.3119 0.469
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 21 31.58% 31.57 76.19% -1.553 -1.408 0.422
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 310 47.08% 36.37 77.74% 1.081 1.0784 -0.335
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 306 40.13% 38.19 78.76% -0.424 -0.3186 0.026
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6351 100.0% 38.06 100.0% 0.423 0.2242 0.135
Shifting Memory of Ages 3123 100.0% 45.59 100.0% 0.069 0.3062 0.169
Shroud of Silent Mist 955 100.0% 33.99 100.0% -0.513 -0.3788 -0.526
Starlight Seeks its Form 1332 100.0% 45.12 100.0% -0.122 -0.1899 0.168
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3130 100.0% 36.6 100.0% -0.309 -0.5823 -0.462
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2863 100.0% 38.34 100.0% 0.214 0.2881 0.479
Thunderspeaker 8199 100.0% 38.1 100.0% 0.116 0.1209 -0.316
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1926 100.0% 34.75 100.0% -0.251 -0.4833 -0.616
Vital Strength of the Earth 7491 105.35% 38.23 102.52% -0.317 0.551 0.016
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 253 33.07% 54.17 70.75% 0.134 0.577 -0.397
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 435 46.19% 36.11 73.56% 0.067 1.2354 -0.523
Volcano Looming High 1373 100.0% 36.22 100.0% 0.666 0.6443 -0.261

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 93.99%
Elemental Aegis 98.28%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.79%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.38%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21188 22.67 6.15%
II 34318 31.1 53.68%
III 58263 34.68 93.18%
IV 37662 37.94 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1296
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 52759
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17797
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 36825
Lose: Invader deck ran out 762
Lose: Adversary condition 15590
Win: Sacrifice victory 1008
Lose: Scenario condition 3011
Win: Scenario condition 1776
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17575
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3032

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.638 Win Model: -0.185

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.436 Win Model: 0.341
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 69389 45.51% 32.52 70.42%
2 38093 46.17% 32.96 73.45%
3 20725 38.35% 36.63 77.58%
4 21628 31.1% 42.51 79.64%
5 321 24.69% 35.05 83.49%
6 1275 23.74% 46.25 81.96%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-27 02:54:44 (Pacific Time)