Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1104 47.38% 31.19 -1.682 58.88% -0.711 -0.1343
Dahan Insurrection 4 1389 36.84% 51.3 7.613 56.8% -1.022 -0.6212
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 26.0 -5.426 100.0% 0.007 0.4361
Elemental Invocation 1 144 44.06% 30.69 -1.256 76.39% -0.343 0.0377
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9462 15.69% 45.57 4.01 68.47% -0.51 -0.1443
Powers Long Forgotten 1 791 40.99% 40.67 2.039 73.07% -0.536 -0.0948
Rituals of Terror 3 632 53.11% 37.82 2.949 61.71% -0.647 -0.0189
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 434 67.44% 36.46 2.305 61.75% -0.518 0.1316
Second Wave 0 5111 42.87% 30.06 -1.235 75.84% -0.606 -0.1897
The Great River 3 67 29.85% 34.33 0.778 70.15% -1.446 0.0257
Ward the Shores 2 921 40.44% 34.15 -0.29 60.04% -1.243 -0.2062

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 47338 44.74% 31.96 -0.621 70.86% -2.912 -2.5535
1 Thematic 2641 49.83% 33.78 -0.045 59.75% -2.959 -2.4548
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18362 46.19% 32.53 -0.326 73.9% -1.383 -1.1868
2 Coastline 2497 41.36% 32.78 -0.55 78.25% -1.334 -1.1913
2 Fragment 556 47.0% 29.96 -1.555 71.76% -1.659 -1.2365
2 Heart 374 47.97% 37.63 1.566 80.75% -1.376 -1.0839
2 Opposite Shores 3771 44.99% 30.99 -1.307 71.76% -1.546 -1.3215
2 Thematic 1730 51.77% 37.19 0.461 61.21% -1.494 -1.4493
2 Top to Top 599 42.37% 36.18 0.957 80.97% -1.155 -1.0211
3 Coastline 61 26.32% 35.87 0.067 83.61% 0.17 0.1367
3 Other 719 44.57% 32.87 -0.668 82.48% -0.203 0.2126
3 Round (Default) 13322 38.11% 35.61 0.172 77.03% 0.175 0.2143
3 Sunrise 57 26.32% 43.33 3.301 84.21% 0.713 0.4897
3 Thematic 651 43.1% 39.76 0.94 67.43% 0.099 -0.2582
4 Coastline 53 13.21% 34.45 -0.6 92.45% 1.711 1.8697
4 Leaf 58 40.35% 33.19 -1.095 82.76% 1.694 1.7222
4 Other 645 36.76% 38.84 0.963 86.51% 1.596 1.7097
4 Reverse Snake 4 0.0% 42.5 0.649 100.0% 0.315 -0.4733
4 Snake 6 66.67% 43.5 2.761 83.33% 1.13 1.2543
4 Thematic 3644 26.35% 51.61 4.087 74.37% 1.737 0.6507
4 Trapezoid (Default) 11669 33.24% 38.96 0.778 79.23% 1.59 1.5732
5 Other 281 36.23% 44.61 2.995 94.66% 3.139 2.9208
5 Thematic 54 33.33% 66.94 10.529 98.15% 3.584 0.7558

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3899 31.9 -2.174 54.37% -1.622 0.4483
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3509 35.29 -0.591 59.39% -1.336 0.5824
All Things Weaken 985 31.31 -2.419 50.25% -1.756 0.3983
Back Against the Wall 3513 34.26 -1.162 55.57% -1.52 0.5765
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3709 30.58 -2.916 53.46% -1.569 0.6547
Downward Spiral 7067 28.37 -2.731 61.23% -1.442 0.5746
Erosion of Will 3760 31.37 -2.42 51.6% -1.705 0.5048
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 462 37.35 0.425 74.03% -0.622 0.0829
Memory Fades to Dust 7102 27.75 -3.023 57.8% -1.622 0.5934
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1046 31.85 -2.174 54.11% -1.603 0.4169
Promising Farmlands 3930 30.69 -2.694 54.02% -1.586 0.6271
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 294 38.42 1.098 79.59% -0.197 0.2381
Thriving Communities 1061 32.64 -1.994 53.44% -1.529 0.569
Tipping Point 2493 27.3 -4.285 40.03% -2.23 -0.0113
Unnatural Proliferation 1142 34.75 -0.767 58.06% -1.408 0.6697
Untended Land Crumbles 1064 32.43 -1.996 52.73% -1.581 0.5174

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18481 43.95% 32.51 -0.548 73.41% 0.198 -0.8917
B 19018 43.48% 32.56 -0.527 73.55% 0.18 -1.0051
C 21429 41.24% 33.56 -0.091 74.17% 0.26 -1.1545
D 18760 41.04% 33.09 -0.306 74.21% 0.21 -0.967
E 3763 44.7% 35.69 0.29 72.55% 0.201 -1.0761
F 6549 44.65% 35.36 0.43 74.19% 0.296 -0.9471
G 6164 42.09% 35.18 0.274 74.42% 0.255 -0.9753
H 6356 42.34% 34.93 0.161 73.13% 0.222 -1.0183
East 2288 35.48% 49.33 4.22 69.32% 0.021 -0.9296
Northeast 1884 44.16% 38.9 1.176 64.44% -0.276 -1.1655
Northwest 1638 42.07% 39.29 1.07 67.4% -0.198 -1.1632
Southeast 268 47.76% 38.02 0.303 69.78% -0.09 -1.0917
Southwest 282 40.43% 34.65 -2.255 63.12% -0.731 -1.3388
West 2214 37.24% 43.6 1.817 66.03% -0.457 -1.1434

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2786 0.0% 20.67 -5.586 73.58% -1.848 0.1956
Not Using Events or Tokens 12092 41.26% 26.08 -3.028 78.03% -0.223 -0.0042
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4652 12.85% 45.06 2.86 88.26% 0.455 -0.249
Start of Game Growth 6831 15.19% 42.88 1.979 86.08% 0.224 -0.2301
Unlimited Undo 13718 34.11% 42.69 3.788 83.5% 0.882 0.4702
Using Tokens but Not Events 10397 33.96% 29.13 -2.334 80.23% -0.012 -0.0593

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 18390 32.09% 37.92 1.031 79.5% 0.11 0.256
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4395 47.87% 34.18 -0.676 71.67% -0.342 -0.1054
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2539 37.44% 37.07 0.367 76.6% -0.054 -0.1393
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2764 33.58% 37.29 0.849 80.75% 0.197 -0.1684
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2358 34.2% 35.41 -0.367 76.63% -0.247 -0.4914
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1106 26.61% 52.32 6.317 82.73% 0.514 0.8593
Heart of the Wildfire 5791 53.54% 31.98 -1.59 70.33% -0.341 0.0098
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9363 36.13% 38.62 0.626 76.14% -0.038 -0.3372
Lightning's Swift Strike 8686 36.6% 38.31 1.175 79.12% 0.146 0.4143
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1120 36.07% 43.47 1.636 78.04% -0.059 -0.3781
Many Minds Move as One 761 40.11% 39.13 1.04 79.63% 0.125 -0.3951
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10899 34.95% 40.92 1.7 77.52% 0.111 -0.0831
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2607 38.98% 37.54 0.568 76.91% 0.021 0.0702
River Surges in Sunlight 7914 35.51% 38.22 0.783 76.21% -0.177 -0.0147
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3611 47.14% 34.01 -0.618 74.66% -0.193 0.2566
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5027 36.6% 36.76 -0.009 74.82% -0.223 -0.2901
Shroud of Silent Mist 32 31.25% 40.59 1.833 81.25% 0.102 0.0577
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2024 43.47% 36.68 -0.627 73.17% -0.311 -0.3298
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2029 36.38% 38.83 1.248 80.43% 0.199 0.4156
Thunderspeaker 6186 37.27% 37.2 0.543 76.46% -0.036 0.0215
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1243 55.14% 35.28 -0.84 69.59% -0.236 -0.2165
Vital Strength of the Earth 6352 31.81% 37.97 0.287 75.71% -0.285 0.5854
Volcano Looming High 328 51.68% 34.31 -1.381 68.6% -0.32 -0.3824

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.35%
Elemental Aegis 98.36%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.53%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.63%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15162 22.34 5.1%
II 24849 30.75 53.06%
III 42050 34.26 92.99%
IV 27033 37.47 99.37%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 516
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24623
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8084
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17588
Lose: Invader deck ran out 580
Lose: Adversary condition 11028
Win: Sacrifice victory 737
Lose: Scenario condition 2387
Win: Scenario condition 1332
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12779
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2395

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.679 Win Model: -0.187

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.441 Win Model: -1.244
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 50569 45.03% 32.25 70.55%
2 27656 45.92% 32.45 73.17%
3 14738 38.34% 35.85 76.99%
4 16131 31.68% 41.83 78.53%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)