Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 26 34.62% 29.08 73.08% -0.152 0.3434 0.0
Blitz 0 1155 47.59% 33.04 54.29% -0.539 -0.0963 -1.038
Dahan Insurrection 4 1333 36.82% 52.68 55.51% -0.816 -0.7191 -0.23
Despicable Theft 2 44 43.18% 35.98 70.45% -0.344 0.1549 -0.407
Elemental Invocation 1 485 47.19% 29.04 71.55% -0.604 -0.0583 -1.308
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8511 13.86% 48.63 72.49% -0.638 -0.4068 0.094
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1021 28.4% 46.99 81.78% 0.703 1.111 -0.457
Rituals of Terror 3 518 52.62% 40.5 66.22% -0.46 -0.6959 -0.192
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 340 65.29% 37.17 62.65% -0.266 -0.0402 -0.514
Second Wave 0 4668 39.6% 30.0 78.19% -0.494 0.1988 -0.009
The Great River 3 125 37.6% 34.58 65.6% -0.401 1.1806 -0.463
Varied Terrains 2 33 60.61% 34.55 57.58% -0.282 0.5048 -0.56
Ward the Shores 2 931 33.98% 35.36 65.84% -0.36 0.5205 -0.628

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 64515 45.37% 32.23 70.54% -0.092 0.5708 -0.42
1 Thematic 3427 47.63% 33.46 62.59% -0.119 0.9378 -0.78
2 Archipelago 60 52.54% 34.7 58.33% -1.451 -0.9805 -0.829
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24981 46.6% 33.0 74.1% -0.168 0.3498 -0.46
2 Coastline 3514 41.46% 33.39 78.4% 0.656 0.8566 -0.142
2 Fragment 737 49.09% 31.01 72.32% 0.474 0.7722 0.019
2 Heart 523 48.46% 37.53 80.31% -0.677 -0.2165 0.364
2 Opposite Shores 5210 44.56% 31.41 72.26% -0.033 0.5062 -0.801
2 Thematic 2246 51.1% 37.18 61.22% -0.362 0.4202 -0.854
2 Top to Top 887 43.15% 36.28 78.69% -0.939 -0.8108 -0.049
3 Archipelago 36 33.33% 38.86 72.22% 0.233 0.0145 -1.715
3 Coastline 103 31.96% 33.52 80.58% 1.093 0.5858 0.539
3 Other 1065 43.87% 34.92 83.85% 0.312 -0.3518 0.671
3 Round (Default) 18525 38.23% 36.32 77.62% -0.717 -0.413 -0.282
3 Sunrise 75 30.14% 39.11 81.33% 0.144 0.6039 0.091
3 Thematic 922 39.93% 41.47 72.02% 0.006 0.2141 -0.229
4 Archipelago 43 37.21% 34.7 72.09% 0.216 0.1789 -1.539
4 Coastline 79 14.1% 32.53 91.14% 0.032 -0.0057 0.53
4 Leaf 82 46.91% 33.89 80.49% 0.081 -0.0206 -0.367
4 Other 916 37.86% 38.75 85.7% 0.088 -0.6258 0.747
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 41.83 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 7 57.14% 40.57 85.71% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 4892 23.73% 53.51 77.21% -0.403 -0.2996 -0.627
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15405 33.57% 39.24 79.73% -0.575 -0.4977 -0.594
5 Archipelago 10 50.0% 45.7 70.0% 0.101 0.0039 -0.46
5 Coastline 10 0.0% 30.3 100.0% 0.091 -0.4962 0.186
5 Other 684 32.74% 41.9 88.89% -0.226 -0.7424 0.019
5 Thematic 155 31.61% 61.39 87.1% 0.357 0.0696 0.434
6 Archipelago 32 25.81% 43.66 96.88% -0.465 -0.6117 -0.288
6 Coastline 3 66.67% 38.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 165 29.27% 36.72 79.39% -0.75 -0.7056 -0.999
6 Star 92 25.0% 38.54 82.61% -0.887 -0.1167 -0.972
6 Thematic 340 25.0% 46.16 78.24% -0.301 -0.0599 -0.379
6 Two Centers (Default) 621 20.32% 49.43 81.96% -0.459 -0.2674 -1.423
7 Archipelago 10 50.0% 68.9 90.0% 0.132 0.2808 0.046
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 6 33.33% 29.5 83.33% -0.374 -0.858 -0.245

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5115 32.73 54.76% -1.21 0.7604 -0.523
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4684 35.76 59.22% -0.56 1.2174 -0.111
All Things Weaken 1940 32.23 50.21% -1.158 0.8911 -0.632
Back Against the Wall 4733 34.82 55.88% -1.259 0.6801 -0.485
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4945 30.93 53.79% -1.474 0.6535 -0.629
Downward Spiral 9240 28.77 60.97% -1.322 0.639 -0.385
Erosion of Will 5080 31.62 51.22% -1.514 0.5677 -0.789
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 877 38.51 77.31% -0.31 0.1919 0.09
Memory Fades to Dust 9189 28.16 58.04% -1.406 0.7353 -0.456
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1983 33.31 55.77% -1.256 0.7245 -0.573
Promising Farmlands 5235 31.24 53.7% -1.285 0.7364 -0.662
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 585 39.36 80.34% 0.504 1.0011 -0.167
Thriving Communities 2006 33.51 54.29% -1.681 0.3782 -0.55
Tipping Point 2495 27.31 40.04% 0.0 0.0 -1.198
Unnatural Proliferation 2140 36.06 58.08% -1.217 0.7398 -0.446
Untended Land Crumbles 2052 32.91 53.85% -1.308 0.7257 -0.591

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 47079 41.23% 34.39 75.9% 0.038 0.7743 -0.104
B 49666 40.91% 34.67 75.73% -0.033 0.6643 -0.203
C 51500 39.94% 34.88 76.02% 0.029 0.4983 -0.051
D 46530 39.95% 34.52 76.23% 0.034 0.7435 -0.099
E 14967 40.62% 37.83 75.9% -0.003 0.5411 -0.018
F 21138 40.88% 36.75 75.49% -0.166 0.496 0.037
G 19845 39.81% 36.86 76.43% 0.031 0.6616 -0.011
H 20099 40.46% 36.96 75.87% 0.036 0.7003 -0.021
East 9845 34.97% 46.1 71.23% 0.673 1.3344 0.411
Northeast 7364 32.06% 48.48 73.11% -0.392 0.2675 -0.441
Northwest 6674 30.11% 48.8 73.91% -0.566 0.0447 -0.477
Southeast 1526 33.94% 45.26 75.23% -0.412 0.1188 -0.498
Southwest 1460 33.9% 43.11 73.22% 0.087 1.0553 -0.763
West 9377 34.03% 46.06 71.06% -0.265 0.5406 -0.935

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3521 0.0% 20.4 74.61% -2.173 0.0556 -0.135
Not Using Events or Tokens 16332 40.56% 26.22 78.59% 0.182 0.4083 -0.168
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6560 11.75% 47.34 88.69% 0.15 -0.8304 -0.426
Start of Game Growth 10020 14.33% 45.3 86.31% 0.205 -0.2517 0.624
Unlimited Undo 18606 34.39% 43.43 84.49% 0.903 0.3512 1.814
Using Tokens but Not Events 13682 32.66% 29.49 80.85% 0.378 0.5328 -0.23

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 24802 100.0% 38.49 100.0% 0.299 0.2237 0.173
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5350 100.0% 34.47 100.0% 0.043 0.1215 -0.357
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3805 100.0% 36.59 100.0% 0.019 -0.2052 -0.184
Downpour Drenches the World 425 100.0% 46.56 100.0% -0.494 -0.2294 0.116
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4395 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.217 -0.7204 -0.022
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3452 100.0% 36.38 100.0% 0.761 0.1741 -0.219
Finder of Paths Unseen 234 100.0% 43.84 100.0% -0.378 -0.0224 0.402
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2596 100.0% 55.81 100.0% 0.19 0.2719 0.581
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 613 100.0% 37.9 100.0% -0.221 -0.3159 0.232
Heart of the Wildfire 7180 100.0% 32.05 100.0% -0.903 -0.4973 -0.064
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12452 100.0% 39.7 100.0% -0.012 -0.6156 0.162
Lightning's Swift Strike 9676 111.19% 37.83 103.33% -0.24 0.1244 0.46
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 228 31.28% 42.44 82.46% 0.234 -0.5151 0.636
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 461 37.09% 39.68 82.43% 0.691 0.1269 0.454
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1008 36.62% 46.46 80.06% 0.544 0.0496 0.542
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3064 100.0% 41.67 100.0% -0.371 -0.5228 -0.182
Many Minds Move as One 1557 100.0% 38.33 100.0% 0.076 -0.5102 -0.226
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 13952 100.0% 41.25 100.0% 0.113 -0.0565 0.487
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3661 100.0% 36.91 100.0% 0.301 0.2451 -0.049
River Surges in Sunlight 9403 107.81% 39.01 102.71% 0.286 0.212 0.075
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 976 31.93% 43.46 77.87% -0.491 -0.0649 -0.441
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 145 48.97% 46.99 73.1% 0.099 -0.2422 0.026
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3748 109.97% 33.23 103.92% 0.241 0.7152 -0.736
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 35 41.18% 36.31 68.57% 0.24 0.4198 0.415
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 19 31.58% 34.42 84.21% -0.66 -0.6042 0.419
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 305 46.53% 36.5 77.38% 0.784 0.7616 -0.327
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 303 40.53% 38.25 78.88% 0.028 0.1434 0.028
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6323 100.0% 38.03 100.0% 0.141 -0.0503 0.133
Shifting Memory of Ages 3048 100.0% 45.57 100.0% 0.059 0.2737 0.18
Shroud of Silent Mist 943 100.0% 34.11 100.0% -0.538 -0.4042 -0.519
Starlight Seeks its Form 1274 100.0% 45.27 100.0% -0.15 -0.2653 0.144
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3103 100.0% 36.58 100.0% -0.296 -0.5352 -0.457
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2852 100.0% 38.31 100.0% -0.124 0.0062 0.468
Thunderspeaker 8139 100.0% 38.05 100.0% -0.024 -0.0408 -0.322
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1895 100.0% 34.75 100.0% -0.028 -0.2434 -0.614
Vital Strength of the Earth 7471 105.17% 38.25 102.44% -0.379 0.519 0.012
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 229 32.75% 55.51 70.74% 0.485 0.9081 -0.437
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 433 46.17% 36.06 73.44% -0.094 1.0206 -0.566
Volcano Looming High 1350 100.0% 36.21 100.0% 0.217 0.1962 -0.288

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.01%
Elemental Aegis 98.27%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.84%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.41%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21033 22.65 6.11%
II 34097 31.08 53.64%
III 57891 34.66 93.17%
IV 37406 37.91 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1278
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 52414
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17666
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 36569
Lose: Invader deck ran out 759
Lose: Adversary condition 15490
Win: Sacrifice victory 1007
Lose: Scenario condition 2989
Win: Scenario condition 1773
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17468
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3014

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.641 Win Model: -0.182

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.486 Win Model: 0.306
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 68956 45.52% 32.51 70.43%
2 37854 46.16% 32.94 73.45%
3 20571 38.41% 36.6 77.54%
4 21503 31.16% 42.51 79.63%
5 315 23.89% 35.03 83.17%
6 1228 23.51% 46.33 81.76%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)