Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 38.1% 29.1 71.43% -0.054 0.0543 0.0
Blitz 0 1102 48.19% 32.55 54.81% -0.024 0.2431 -1.015
Dahan Insurrection 4 1281 36.76% 52.37 55.74% -0.914 -0.581 -0.204
Despicable Theft 2 42 40.48% 36.29 71.43% 0.381 0.6313 -0.399
Elemental Invocation 1 463 47.07% 28.99 71.92% 0.076 0.7247 -1.282
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8256 13.84% 48.68 72.58% -0.58 -0.4137 0.125
Powers Long Forgotten 1 905 31.05% 45.67 79.89% -0.698 -0.3725 -0.447
Rituals of Terror 3 494 53.56% 40.51 65.79% 0.29 0.1802 -0.115
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 336 65.18% 37.15 62.8% 0.042 0.6988 -0.543
Second Wave 0 4498 39.72% 29.9 78.03% -0.411 0.0596 -0.034
The Great River 3 121 36.36% 34.31 65.29% -1.003 0.4981 -0.333
Varied Terrains 2 23 56.52% 35.61 52.17% -0.53 0.0058 -0.526
Ward the Shores 2 913 34.1% 35.34 65.83% -0.679 0.5079 -0.607

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 62774 45.35% 32.18 70.49% -0.183 0.2638 -0.458
1 Thematic 3344 47.92% 33.46 62.29% 0.032 0.6349 -0.822
2 Archipelago 51 56.0% 36.12 62.75% 0.1 0.766 -0.169
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24320 46.65% 32.93 73.92% -0.614 -0.2226 -0.442
2 Coastline 3402 41.49% 33.21 78.25% 0.122 0.2098 -0.153
2 Fragment 720 49.21% 31.02 72.5% 1.348 1.4141 -0.081
2 Heart 496 47.45% 37.59 81.85% 0.801 1.073 0.806
2 Opposite Shores 5063 44.91% 31.33 71.89% -0.503 -0.0103 -0.783
2 Thematic 2204 50.84% 37.1 61.16% -0.545 -0.0766 -0.852
2 Top to Top 849 43.44% 36.35 79.27% -0.067 0.2152 0.052
3 Archipelago 32 34.38% 39.66 68.75% 0.0 -0.383 -1.704
3 Coastline 100 31.58% 33.17 80.0% 0.573 -0.0661 0.475
3 Other 1051 44.17% 34.96 83.92% 0.956 -0.133 0.65
3 Round (Default) 17898 38.0% 36.21 77.79% -0.108 0.1606 -0.16
3 Sunrise 74 29.17% 39.39 81.08% 0.0 -0.2196 0.146
3 Thematic 896 40.43% 41.45 71.65% 0.353 0.1289 -0.157
4 Archipelago 39 41.03% 35.54 69.23% 0.143 -0.7081 -1.518
4 Coastline 73 15.07% 33.19 90.41% 0.692 0.7001 0.621
4 Leaf 80 45.57% 34.35 80.0% -0.429 -0.1885 -0.261
4 Other 901 37.82% 38.9 85.79% -0.672 -1.1173 0.91
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 41.83 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 7 57.14% 40.57 85.71% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 4747 24.19% 53.38 76.79% -0.535 -0.4394 -0.485
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15087 33.41% 39.17 79.66% -0.618 -0.7548 -0.439
5 Archipelago 10 50.0% 45.7 70.0% -0.094 -0.5109 -0.435
5 Coastline 9 0.0% 30.44 100.0% 0.113 -0.3988 0.212
5 Other 627 32.05% 41.75 90.11% -1.065 -0.7961 0.153
5 Thematic 150 30.0% 62.12 87.33% 0.224 0.1176 0.595
6 Archipelago 26 32.0% 37.15 100.0% 0.058 -0.4574 0.2
6 Coastline 3 66.67% 38.67 100.0% 0.162 -0.2781 0.0
6 Other 133 26.32% 35.28 78.95% -1.326 -0.438 -0.781
6 Star 75 24.0% 38.57 85.33% -0.021 0.8737 -0.556
6 Thematic 296 22.97% 45.36 77.03% -1.268 -0.9051 -0.413
6 Two Centers (Default) 527 20.11% 50.31 81.59% -1.228 -0.8496 -1.29
7 Archipelago 8 50.0% 77.75 87.5% -0.085 -0.9249 0.054
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 4 0.0% 32.5 75.0% -0.212 -1.1475 0.034

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4994 32.59 54.63% -1.187 0.6444 -0.513
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4564 35.57 58.9% -1.151 0.5031 -0.114
All Things Weaken 1815 31.61 49.42% -1.294 0.6829 -0.731
Back Against the Wall 4612 34.78 55.66% -1.035 0.8235 -0.483
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4808 30.91 53.72% -1.635 0.3391 -0.61
Downward Spiral 9043 28.74 60.89% -1.477 0.4245 -0.355
Erosion of Will 4956 31.53 51.09% -1.33 0.7138 -0.784
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 826 38.38 77.12% -0.438 0.134 0.085
Memory Fades to Dust 9000 28.09 57.94% -1.324 0.6559 -0.431
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1877 33.18 55.62% -1.095 0.7966 -0.554
Promising Farmlands 5115 31.09 53.53% -1.577 0.4615 -0.673
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 544 39.36 80.15% -0.085 0.3558 -0.179
Thriving Communities 1900 33.44 54.47% -1.531 0.4331 -0.509
Tipping Point 2495 27.31 40.04% 0.0 0.489 -1.176
Unnatural Proliferation 2031 35.93 58.05% -0.903 1.0031 -0.434
Untended Land Crumbles 1934 32.87 53.93% -1.283 0.752 -0.57

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 45896 41.2% 34.33 75.82% 0.34 1.1079 -0.098
B 48478 40.89% 34.62 75.69% 0.123 0.816 -0.198
C 50206 39.94% 34.81 76.0% 0.278 0.8422 -0.032
D 45454 39.91% 34.47 76.2% -0.176 0.5919 -0.083
E 14067 40.57% 37.79 75.94% 0.628 1.2275 0.006
F 20239 40.82% 36.68 75.56% 0.612 1.3218 0.075
G 19041 39.79% 36.76 76.3% 0.144 0.8702 0.007
H 19308 40.37% 36.88 75.84% 0.329 1.0196 -0.033
East 9557 35.26% 45.97 70.82% 0.19 0.8121 0.437
Northeast 7125 32.43% 48.33 72.65% -0.051 0.6305 -0.438
Northwest 6448 30.42% 48.68 73.46% -0.618 0.449 -0.446
Southeast 1446 33.4% 45.13 74.97% -0.177 0.5513 -0.342
Southwest 1380 33.26% 42.99 72.83% -0.373 0.5973 -0.78
West 9083 34.32% 45.94 70.64% -0.71 0.2929 -0.925

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3424 0.0% 20.46 74.68% -1.153 0.8585 0.033
Not Using Events or Tokens 15899 40.63% 26.15 78.49% -0.044 0.17 -0.164
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6331 11.92% 47.23 88.6% -0.094 -0.1876 -0.433
Start of Game Growth 9692 14.35% 45.16 86.43% 0.688 -0.02 0.701
Unlimited Undo 18173 34.34% 43.48 84.39% 1.296 0.5961 1.819
Using Tokens but Not Events 13266 32.93% 29.47 80.7% -0.106 -0.1512 -0.198

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 24193 100.0% 38.42 100.0% 0.268 0.1334 0.164
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5246 100.0% 34.41 100.0% -0.198 -0.1519 -0.357
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3699 100.0% 36.66 100.0% -0.11 -0.2295 -0.197
Downpour Drenches the World 275 100.0% 46.76 100.0% 0.138 0.4868 0.427
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4232 100.0% 37.14 100.0% 0.097 -0.3242 -0.037
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3357 100.0% 36.35 100.0% 0.038 -0.5242 -0.234
Finder of Paths Unseen 156 100.0% 45.58 100.0% 0.336 0.7371 0.407
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2431 100.0% 55.73 100.0% 0.49 0.5437 0.612
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 535 100.0% 37.97 100.0% -0.177 -0.1852 0.339
Heart of the Wildfire 7049 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.306 -0.079 -0.051
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12062 100.0% 39.49 100.0% 0.162 -0.3603 0.171
Lightning's Swift Strike 9554 110.02% 37.85 103.02% -0.032 0.2112 0.457
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 105 34.29% 46.83 80.95% 0.434 -0.4202 1.268
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 450 36.67% 39.56 82.0% -0.206 -0.8151 0.448
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 944 35.81% 46.42 80.08% 0.219 -0.1582 0.55
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2892 100.0% 41.88 100.0% -0.294 -0.5121 -0.193
Many Minds Move as One 1489 100.0% 38.3 100.0% -0.223 -0.7621 -0.185
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 13621 100.0% 41.22 100.0% -0.076 -0.393 0.487
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3554 100.0% 36.91 100.0% 0.119 0.1027 -0.051
River Surges in Sunlight 9190 107.17% 38.78 102.45% 0.503 0.5553 0.069
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 914 32.45% 43.67 78.01% 0.26 0.6179 -0.406
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 82 45.12% 47.0 70.73% -0.069 -0.2996 0.005
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3720 109.29% 33.24 103.74% -0.212 0.2552 -0.735
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 20 50.0% 32.95 55.0% -0.623 -0.5259 -0.19
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 11 36.36% 33.0 90.91% -0.037 -0.2127 0.38
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 292 46.21% 36.54 77.05% 0.191 0.1318 -0.357
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 292 40.34% 38.6 78.77% -0.442 -0.2817 0.102
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6175 100.0% 37.96 100.0% 0.214 -0.0888 0.103
Shifting Memory of Ages 2725 100.0% 45.57 100.0% 0.25 0.2891 0.24
Shroud of Silent Mist 884 100.0% 34.41 100.0% -0.618 -0.2932 -0.484
Starlight Seeks its Form 1064 100.0% 45.77 100.0% -0.088 -0.292 0.079
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3002 100.0% 36.69 100.0% -0.269 -0.4549 -0.44
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2753 100.0% 38.35 100.0% -0.604 -0.5191 0.432
Thunderspeaker 7902 100.0% 37.73 100.0% 0.186 0.1551 -0.313
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1823 100.0% 34.65 100.0% 0.296 0.2523 -0.686
Vital Strength of the Earth 7384 104.4% 38.25 102.15% 0.28 1.0743 0.017
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 144 31.25% 53.89 66.67% -0.216 0.2364 -0.671
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 411 44.74% 35.89 72.99% 0.778 1.8096 -0.693
Volcano Looming High 1240 100.0% 36.01 100.0% -0.258 -0.2323 -0.402

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absorb Essence 94.02%
Elemental Aegis 98.26%
Gift of Flowing Power 68.9%
Gift of the Primordial Deeps 73.5%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 20395 22.6 5.85%
II 33172 31.02 53.47%
III 56154 34.59 93.13%
IV 36389 37.83 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1186
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 50819
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17122
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 35570
Lose: Invader deck ran out 735
Lose: Adversary condition 15066
Win: Sacrifice victory 974
Lose: Scenario condition 2921
Win: Scenario condition 1735
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17040
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2942

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.531 Win Model: -0.198

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.47 Win Model: 0.295
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 67070 45.5% 32.45 70.36%
2 36828 46.24% 32.89 73.3%
3 19909 38.25% 36.5 77.67%
4 21016 31.16% 42.44 79.5%
5 257 21.48% 33.86 82.88%
6 1030 22.06% 46.23 81.36%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)