Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 388 47.42% 31.87 4.522 74.23% 0.442 0.7051
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 986 49.7% 32.83 2.009 70.18% -0.443 -0.0965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 620 58.58% 36.17 3.094 60.16% -0.792 0.038
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 335 55.56% 36.97 4.412 54.93% -0.354 0.6369
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 225 71.88% 39.01 2.118 46.22% -1.053 0.2669
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 60.53% 39.83 11.771 43.42% -0.275 1.3872
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 119 56.3% 43.72 11.284 41.18% 0.252 2.2654
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1048 50.57% 25.8 -0.453 74.24% 0.097 0.1819
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4199 41.67% 31.76 1.659 80.83% -0.119 -0.2142
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3664 47.98% 38.44 5.031 75.74% -0.02 -0.0311
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2671 53.02% 43.47 9.08 71.32% 0.2 0.3968
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1734 52.14% 45.78 7.581 69.95% -0.541 -0.3383
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 973 62.47% 48.77 8.025 61.36% -0.861 -0.2998
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 783 69.64% 44.7 3.892 45.85% -1.559 -0.221
The Kingdom of England 0 1 727 46.62% 25.57 1.231 64.79% -0.381 -0.1155
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2480 44.75% 33.0 0.14 69.6% -0.773 -0.5896
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1548 57.52% 31.23 0.217 54.52% -1.11 -0.3738
The Kingdom of England 3 6 749 58.26% 35.15 0.08 46.86% -1.748 -0.6087
The Kingdom of England 4 7 412 53.64% 37.51 4.87 44.9% -1.063 -0.017
The Kingdom of England 5 9 184 66.67% 37.72 5.086 31.52% -0.712 0.9282
The Kingdom of England 6 11 309 62.17% 42.9 -1.787 37.22% -2.08 -0.038
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 588 55.1% 27.31 1.76 60.37% -0.374 0.0289
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1354 57.48% 30.75 1.607 62.63% -0.603 0.3527
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 765 43.36% 33.22 6.57 40.78% -0.899 0.1741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 495 50.51% 34.41 3.771 30.71% -1.3 -0.0125
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 279 56.47% 39.58 5.635 36.56% -1.155 0.2462
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 168 60.48% 39.81 1.632 31.55% -0.856 0.0722
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 550 60.73% 46.59 5.748 35.45% -1.658 -0.3144
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 101 41.58% 33.97 0.607 73.27% -0.122 -0.1057
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 239 37.39% 35.01 3.782 73.22% -0.093 0.3371
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 179 35.23% 36.45 2.444 68.72% -0.717 -0.2762
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 143 37.59% 45.12 11.305 69.23% 0.149 0.5347
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 92 40.22% 45.1 6.96 65.22% -0.876 -0.2575
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 54 42.59% 46.7 11.258 61.11% -0.027 0.7568
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 139 66.91% 47.52 5.604 52.52% -1.138 0.1375
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 743 55.85% 24.85 -3.591 71.06% -0.856 -0.6764
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2140 45.08% 30.21 1.954 77.94% 0.047 0.0733
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1797 54.12% 31.45 2.249 71.79% -0.114 0.1096
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1224 65.17% 35.47 1.768 62.91% -0.542 -0.1139
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 720 73.71% 35.03 -1.515 54.31% -1.332 -0.7237
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 277 67.51% 38.4 7.639 53.79% -0.054 0.9559
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 677 81.54% 38.01 1.339 46.68% -0.927 -0.0401
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 317 49.53% 32.13 -0.421 74.13% -0.413 -0.2922
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 684 53.67% 31.66 2.49 66.81% -0.143 0.4979
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 407 48.4% 37.47 2.987 73.46% -0.476 -0.05
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 279 66.67% 36.75 2.786 51.25% -0.872 0.2427
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 152 60.26% 46.3 10.327 61.84% -0.182 0.722
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 98 76.53% 39.84 14.488 32.65% -0.205 1.291
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 109 72.48% 51.71 14.716 44.04% -0.97 0.8707

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 56557 42.65 28.08 74.12% -0.582 -0.5281 -0.438
1 Thematic 3086 53.59 26.35 62.99% -0.9 -0.422 -0.617
2 Archipelago 30 36.67 30.97 80.0% 0.344 0.4482
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9754 45.91 30.35 75.43% -0.47 -0.3883 -0.005
2 Coastline 1802 40.22 31.15 78.58% -0.428 -0.5819 0.466
2 Fragment 355 47.03 27.7 72.11% 0.101 -0.1479 -0.645
2 Heart 416 44.04 27.62 78.61% 0.323 0.0357 -0.06
2 Opposite Shores 2831 35.44 29.7 81.81% 0.213 0.2363 -0.703
2 Thematic 1498 53.54 32.34 66.36% -0.392 0.0116 0.27
2 Top to Top 492 40.78 31.16 80.49% 0.29 0.1241 0.554
3 Archipelago 37 32.43 30.59 94.59%
3 Coastline 155 24.03 29.83 91.61% 0.268 -0.2451 0.467
3 Other 667 37.63 28.48 84.56% 0.538 1.0784 -0.335
3 Round (Default) 4872 38.8 32.46 80.15% 0.094 -0.0216 0.175
3 Sunrise 27 55.56 23.37 74.07%
3 Thematic 296 41.22 30.1 75.68% 0.815 0.8954 0.759
4 Archipelago 37 29.73 32.59 89.19%
4 Coastline 118 8.47 28.14 95.76% 0.391 0.6221
4 Leaf 24 45.83 25.83 79.17% -0.51 -0.8529
4 Other 482 32.16 30.49 86.1% 0.67 -0.4141 -0.0
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 557 37.16 32.48 78.28% 0.001 -0.2618 -0.487
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3348 31.92 30.01 86.44% 0.17 0.0873 0.462
5 Archipelago 9 22.22 30.56 77.78% -0.847 -1.7629
5 Coastline 55 5.45 26.69 94.55% 0.271 -0.3805
5 Other 613 18.76 28.77 94.29% 0.125 -0.1595 -0.369
5 Thematic 106 29.25 27.89 87.74% -0.116 -0.2096
6 Archipelago 8 25.0 33.88 100.0% -0.853 -0.7018
6 Coastline 2 50.0 27.0 100.0% 0.291 -0.5101
6 Other 113 30.36 25.96 89.38% 0.142 -0.0907 -0.276
6 Star 27 44.44 29.89 85.19% -0.118 -0.1309 -0.1
6 Thematic 95 42.11 27.06 77.89% -0.329 0.0913
6 Two Centers (Default) 210 23.33 31.97 88.1% 0.065 0.1688 0.341
7 Other 18 38.89 24.11 94.44% -0.298 -0.9107 0.213

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2911 22.6 46.2% -1.355 -1.113 -0.919
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2450 23.68 47.76% -1.074 -1.1517 -0.751
All Things Weaken 1676 21.5 44.09% -1.54 -1.1477 -0.517
Attenuated Essence 43 22.42 46.51% -1.077 -0.9705 -0.451
Back Against the Wall 2325 23.27 46.41% -0.976 -0.9182 -1.047
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 53 16.43 37.74% -1.839 -1.6372 -0.804
Burn Brightest Before the End 40 21.93 52.5% -1.273 -1.0622
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2805 20.05 44.06% -1.435 -1.0112 -1.188
Downward Spiral 4541 21.38 53.09% -1.227 -0.9914 -0.915
Erosion of Will 2949 21.44 43.78% -1.4 -1.0904 -0.924
Intensifying Exploitation 65 18.43 47.69% -1.198 -0.9106 -0.157
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 632 31.02 87.97% 0.209 -0.2844 -0.607
Memory Fades to Dust 4554 21.05 50.9% -1.117 -0.781 -0.731
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1714 21.42 48.37% -1.341 -1.1204 -1.01
Promising Farmlands 2818 21.15 46.88% -1.313 -0.8599 -0.866
Shattered Fragments of Power 50 26.12 42.0% -1.146 -1.0952 -0.161
Slow Dissolution of Will 65 18.29 44.62% -1.402 -1.0025 -0.588
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 336 31.97 89.88% 0.307 -0.4035 0.013
The Border of Life and Death 11 21.0 63.64% -0.268 -0.603 -0.305
Thriving Communities 1812 21.19 47.85% -1.565 -1.2023 -0.36
Thriving Crops 30 26.4 76.67% 0.175 -0.0227
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.551
Unnatural Proliferation 1796 24.61 49.28% -1.093 -0.8778 -0.54
Untended Land Crumbles 1767 21.9 50.08% -1.376 -1.094 -0.939

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 17981 41.11% 28.93 76.96% -0.318 0.4219 -0.217
B 18135 41.64% 29.68 77.08% -0.248 0.4782 0.388
C 21730 38.93% 29.53 78.9% 0.054 0.6365 0.204
D 19582 40.52% 29.15 77.97% -0.18 0.5318 0.0
E 10855 37.35% 29.13 79.96% -0.065 0.5001 0.199
F 13549 39.76% 29.41 77.93% -0.289 0.3813 0.309
G 12692 40.44% 29.17 77.77% -0.195 0.457 0.069
H 13738 38.88% 29.55 79.23% -0.066 0.5049 0.287
East 3640 49.22% 30.53 67.5% 0.224 0.7632 -0.555
Northeast 1870 51.61% 32.46 65.88% -0.834 -0.1995 0.011
Northwest 1333 51.59% 32.24 65.87% -0.015 0.7944 -0.484
Southeast 1325 36.1% 28.82 78.11% 0.101 0.807 0.165
Southwest 891 41.08% 28.2 75.98% -0.104 0.8857 0.524
West 2771 50.8% 30.09 66.51% -1.162 -0.2587 0.082

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2672 0.0% 24.36 74.55% -0.983 -0.2073 -0.496
Not Using Events or Tokens 3240 51.79% 23.0 68.8% -0.118 0.2615 -0.026
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6219 19.86% 34.74 87.62% 0.425 -0.1927 0.455
Start of Game Growth 9527 18.64% 33.79 88.41% -0.062 -0.4107 0.613
Unlimited Undo 8891 31.86% 31.63 81.99% 0.048 0.0413 0.096
Using Tokens but Not Events 14185 27.08% 29.29 84.76% 0.527 0.5171 0.461

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10882 20.4 9.44%
II 25940 31.01 65.6%
III 32615 34.76 90.68%
IV 19311 38.07 99.98%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.166 Win Model: 0.091
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 60183 43.21% 28.02 73.63%
2 17117 44.06% 30.37 76.29%
3 5924 38.26% 31.87 80.57%
4 4566 31.27% 30.21 85.98%
5 578 17.47% 27.06 91.35%
6 380 32.19% 29.37 86.05%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1023
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29454
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16973
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19215
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 784
Lose: Invader deck ran out 930
Lose: Adversary condition 2919
Win: Sacrifice victory 262
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16385
Lose: Spirit destroyed 803

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)