Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 67 46.27% 21.18 -0.671 46.27% -0.301 0.2695
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 165 41.21% 29.9 0.172 62.42% -0.288 -0.1609
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 134 56.39% 27.11 -3.539 52.24% -0.776 -0.1714
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 65 60.94% 23.49 11.97 40.0% 0.417 0.6274
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 60 54.24% 22.03 -2.606 26.67% -0.808 -0.4998
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 27 61.54% 31.15 -0.46 37.04% -0.55 0.6724
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 12 75.0% 22.83 -12.27 16.67% -0.616 1.4671
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 650 49.92% 29.2 0.052 63.69% -0.372 0.0316
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1316 47.41% 31.55 -2.02 66.87% -0.696 -0.3128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 855 56.42% 34.29 6.602 55.91% -0.039 0.497
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 497 56.01% 35.6 1.196 52.52% -0.653 0.3073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 315 67.42% 37.91 8.306 44.44% -0.242 0.8341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 117 61.21% 39.41 7.335 43.59% -0.465 1.0623
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 168 53.57% 39.39 0.0 35.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1492 49.53% 25.4 -1.365 69.64% -0.357 -0.1955
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5541 39.43% 30.35 1.2 76.72% 0.18 0.3149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5004 46.92% 36.68 2.588 72.04% -0.196 -0.2464
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3689 52.37% 41.29 3.876 67.77% -0.479 -0.1817
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2395 53.02% 43.26 7.994 65.89% 0.044 0.2265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1322 60.84% 46.22 7.864 58.02% -0.55 -0.1535
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1184 64.9% 44.83 6.014 46.71% -1.267 -0.0272
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1081 45.92% 24.98 0.116 60.31% -0.321 0.0453
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3242 44.27% 31.69 1.039 66.75% -0.546 -0.1696
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2151 56.36% 30.11 1.407 52.67% -0.72 -0.1417
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1124 55.2% 34.06 6.462 45.82% -0.346 0.7906
The Kingdom of England 4 7 614 52.97% 37.02 4.858 45.28% -0.587 0.4331
The Kingdom of England 5 9 273 63.97% 33.81 1.121 27.11% -0.418 1.0458
The Kingdom of England 6 11 660 54.05% 39.61 4.913 37.58% -0.504 1.2225
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 808 51.63% 26.58 3.035 56.68% -0.035 0.4222
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1889 56.15% 29.15 1.203 58.76% -0.289 0.4149
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1176 42.16% 31.91 4.961 38.18% -1.081 -0.1774
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 707 48.9% 35.12 5.145 34.79% -0.685 0.6525
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 402 49.21% 40.58 4.518 40.05% -0.56 0.7075
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 247 59.15% 40.18 18.157 33.2% 0.235 1.1576
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 722 58.03% 43.84 -7.326 33.38% -1.88 -0.5786
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 381 43.09% 27.97 -3.587 63.52% -0.628 -0.3866
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 942 36.34% 31.69 3.269 67.52% 0.026 0.3468
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 860 35.8% 36.14 6.652 68.84% 0.332 0.5421
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 710 35.03% 43.6 9.941 67.75% -0.073 -0.0038
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 510 42.65% 43.78 11.757 62.94% -0.173 0.3802
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 311 49.49% 45.12 8.102 57.56% -1.445 -0.9627
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 488 58.32% 46.25 12.344 50.82% -0.627 0.4541
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1095 54.14% 25.05 -5.951 67.85% -1.163 -0.8949
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2811 44.29% 28.97 0.556 74.49% -0.19 -0.108
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2441 52.77% 30.6 3.793 69.07% 0.426 0.5903
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1730 62.13% 34.63 5.338 61.27% 0.291 0.5078
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1063 68.36% 34.68 7.642 54.47% 0.075 0.6238
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 420 67.49% 36.75 12.04 51.43% 0.194 0.6746
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1052 75.36% 37.22 -6.413 46.48% -1.086 -0.4007
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 594 43.15% 30.78 -2.215 66.67% -0.657 -0.2222
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1041 52.22% 28.87 -2.349 60.23% -0.873 -0.0089
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 616 49.76% 34.83 6.011 67.69% 0.548 1.0284
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 436 68.28% 34.88 2.355 48.17% -0.483 0.5032
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 250 60.08% 45.41 11.034 59.2% 0.029 0.8608
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 136 74.26% 40.08 18.045 36.03% 0.283 1.6007
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 170 65.88% 47.99 0.0 41.18%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 81457 40.57 27.1 71.43% -0.023 0.2014 -0.495
1 Thematic 4265 49.98 25.41 62.74% -0.365 0.1856 -0.231
2 Archipelago 81 28.4 27.86 75.31% -0.238 -0.592 -0.421
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 13837 45.63 29.51 72.18% -0.442 -0.3304 -0.024
2 Coastline 2580 38.97 29.35 75.54% 0.096 0.0066 -0.359
2 Fragment 551 46.25 27.79 70.42% 0.436 0.0977
2 Heart 657 35.33 27.03 79.45% 0.241 -0.0861 0.184
2 Opposite Shores 4103 35.96 29.53 78.77% 0.165 0.2017 0.186
2 Thematic 2421 52.61 28.89 56.26% -0.044 0.4845 -0.499
2 Top to Top 775 40.31 30.55 77.16% 0.044 -0.1625 0.971
3 Archipelago 59 35.59 30.97 91.53%
3 Coastline 286 20.0 27.54 87.76% 0.456 -0.0647
3 Other 1024 35.84 26.38 81.15% 0.552 -0.1895 0.528
3 Round (Default) 7900 39.49 33.05 77.28% 0.191 0.0952 -0.102
3 Sunrise 38 47.37 22.58 71.05%
3 Thematic 485 47.3 28.57 70.31% 0.233 0.4748 0.001
4 Archipelago 47 31.91 33.57 87.23% -0.226 -0.1455 0.295
4 Coastline 228 9.65 26.91 92.54%
4 Leaf 37 48.65 24.89 75.68%
4 Other 753 31.08 28.4 83.53% 0.3 -0.2477 -0.61
4 Reverse Snake 4 0.0 24.5 75.0%
4 Thematic 726 39.39 29.63 71.49% -0.274 0.199 -0.141
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4493 30.22 28.59 82.24% 0.316 0.1272 0.424
5 Archipelago 14 28.57 26.79 71.43% -0.865 0.5812
5 Coastline 104 8.65 25.15 89.42%
5 Other 1121 18.91 28.21 89.3% -0.968 -1.2943 0.164
5 Thematic 123 30.89 27.15 83.74%
6 Archipelago 22 31.82 34.73 86.36% 0.451 -0.4742
6 Coastline 9 11.11 23.78 66.67%
6 Other 325 28.4 23.97 82.15% 0.461 0.7302
6 Star 59 44.07 25.29 72.88%
6 Thematic 193 35.45 22.51 59.07% -0.119 0.4618 0.287
6 Two Centers (Default) 551 21.78 25.86 73.68% -0.748 -0.7715 -0.386
7 Other 41 29.27 19.88 70.73% 0.197 -0.0589

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3776 22.25 45.29% -0.749 -0.4386 -1.009
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3209 24.01 47.49% -0.774 -0.7613 0.442
All Things Weaken 2403 21.09 42.24% -1.262 -0.7886 -1.203
Attenuated Essence 485 23.92 50.31% -1.004 -0.8579 -0.615
Back Against the Wall 2996 23.1 45.79% -1.96 -1.8306 -0.886
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 451 20.32 43.46% -0.825 -0.5051 -0.459
Burn Brightest Before the End 404 24.71 48.51% -0.248 -0.0709 0.025
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3609 19.65 43.28% -1.763 -1.3824 0.477
Downward Spiral 5978 20.91 51.29% -1.396 -1.2024 -0.741
Erosion of Will 3808 21.02 43.3% -1.227 -0.8889 -0.316
Intensifying Exploitation 567 22.09 49.74% -0.548 -0.1955 -0.318
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 909 30.09 83.5% 0.16 -0.2033 -0.018
Memory Fades to Dust 5890 20.53 48.59% -1.536 -1.207 -0.06
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2472 21.71 47.78% -0.949 -0.682 -0.788
Promising Farmlands 3622 20.7 45.53% -1.128 -0.6807 -0.75
Shattered Fragments of Power 400 23.51 43.5% -0.723 -0.7234 -0.694
Slow Dissolution of Will 481 18.42 37.63% -1.118 -0.7072 -0.899
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 520 29.8 84.23% 0.515 -0.0435 0.222
The Border of Life and Death 114 27.4 71.05% 0.026 -0.2187
Thriving Communities 2550 21.28 47.45% -1.214 -0.9366 -0.323
Thriving Crops 188 25.94 73.94% -0.486 -0.5814 -0.335
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13%
Unnatural Proliferation 2571 24.19 48.35% -0.87 -0.6651 -1.09
Untended Land Crumbles 2441 21.98 49.0% -0.905 -0.6056 -0.776

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26342 39.7% 28.09 73.84% -0.166 0.8255 0.103
B 26309 40.76% 28.77 73.54% -0.306 0.5595 0.76
C 30950 37.93% 28.51 75.32% -0.147 0.6047 0.174
D 28159 38.99% 28.22 74.68% -0.057 0.8875 -0.412
E 19919 33.0% 28.09 78.32% 0.372 1.1269 0.344
F 19913 38.79% 28.82 74.73% -0.193 0.6816 -0.087
G 18293 39.58% 28.38 74.5% -0.512 0.3502 -0.578
H 19980 37.84% 28.95 76.21% -0.058 0.749 0.495
East 5755 47.48% 27.8 62.17% -0.753 -0.0076 -0.082
Northeast 2906 49.51% 29.53 60.91% -0.341 0.5521 0.316
Northwest 2116 49.88% 29.28 60.68% 0.059 0.8024 0.071
Southeast 2132 35.59% 26.56 73.73% -0.064 0.9445 -0.068
Southwest 1330 41.06% 25.51 67.67% 0.204 1.361 0.366
West 4291 50.34% 27.37 59.43% -0.669 0.3131 -0.669

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4237 0.0% 26.2 72.27% -0.906 -0.1861
Not Using Events or Tokens 4716 51.4% 20.72 61.73% 0.108 0.5822 -0.318
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8341 19.16% 35.26 86.0% -0.022 -0.8273 0.503
Start of Game Growth 13118 18.0% 33.6 86.42% 0.708 0.141 0.959
Unlimited Undo 12607 30.88% 31.29 78.75% -0.017 0.0108 -0.642
Using Tokens but Not Events 23714 24.53% 29.64 83.1% 0.984 0.9567 1.435

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19791 12.25 7.5%
II 36694 29.91 64.6%
III 45730 34.94 90.63%
IV 27252 38.9 99.86%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.099 Win Model: 0.254
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 86666 40.98% 27.04 71.1%
2 24836 43.7% 29.38 72.47%
3 9586 38.84% 31.94 77.49%
4 6236 30.16% 28.59 81.85%
5 1154 17.59% 26.35 85.36%
6 989 27.64% 24.59 72.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1480
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 41273
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23644
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27083
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7038
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1304
Lose: Adversary condition 4248
Win: Sacrifice victory 368
Lose: Unique spirit condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21927
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1101

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)