Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 369 46.61% 31.88 2.759 74.8% -0.184 0.3443
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 928 50.16% 32.93 2.597 70.69% -0.452 -0.0888
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 581 58.62% 36.5 2.681 61.1% -1.223 -0.1004
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 315 56.23% 37.19 8.157 55.24% -0.38 1.0406
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 208 71.5% 39.16 11.704 46.63% -0.055 1.5107
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 67 61.19% 39.81 6.979 43.28% -0.242 1.6384
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 115 56.52% 43.86 15.202 40.87% -0.079 2.1193
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 976 50.41% 25.92 -0.349 75.0% -0.113 -0.1209
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3960 42.05% 31.94 2.549 81.31% 0.451 0.1911
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3437 47.93% 38.71 4.781 76.29% -0.31 -0.1224
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2451 53.21% 43.68 8.307 71.56% -0.193 0.1862
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1576 52.54% 46.25 9.576 70.62% -0.533 -0.1662
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 876 63.0% 49.56 9.559 62.44% -1.511 -0.3654
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 712 72.02% 45.64 6.368 46.63% -1.712 -0.2708
The Kingdom of England 0 1 663 46.29% 25.46 2.149 65.76% 0.066 0.6064
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2319 44.94% 33.35 3.647 70.46% 0.023 0.6841
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1420 58.59% 31.64 -0.359 55.42% -1.318 -0.1931
The Kingdom of England 3 6 686 60.18% 35.59 2.131 47.67% -1.815 -0.1262
The Kingdom of England 4 7 380 54.47% 37.64 6.095 45.0% -1.337 0.108
The Kingdom of England 5 9 165 68.29% 37.63 4.202 29.09% -1.858 0.2277
The Kingdom of England 6 11 277 63.77% 45.01 10.419 39.71% -1.222 1.3455
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 524 56.87% 27.01 1.564 60.88% -1.054 -0.361
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1273 58.11% 30.94 0.769 63.0% -0.755 0.2963
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 702 45.06% 32.68 3.421 39.6% -1.954 0.1731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 444 52.37% 33.73 1.69 28.83% -2.712 -0.6122
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 255 56.69% 39.46 11.343 35.69% -0.539 1.8103
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 158 60.51% 40.33 8.197 31.65% -0.637 1.4159
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 519 61.08% 47.01 8.466 36.03% -1.946 0.2395
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 73 38.36% 36.42 3.899 76.71% 0.338 0.3477
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 161 36.02% 36.66 4.825 77.02% -0.097 0.824
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 111 35.45% 37.9 4.083 71.17% -0.484 0.5695
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 92 40.66% 43.5 7.406 64.13% -0.559 0.3228
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 52 40.38% 48.1 8.639 73.08% -0.298 0.9396
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 31 41.94% 45.84 8.223 58.06% -0.54 0.7061
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 95 67.37% 53.78 13.784 64.21% 0.131 1.6333
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 697 56.24% 25.21 1.449 72.45% 0.226 0.3837
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2013 45.84% 30.22 2.668 78.09% 0.606 0.775
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1665 55.11% 31.36 1.727 71.77% 0.163 0.4372
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1116 65.83% 35.77 4.88 63.08% -0.119 0.3536
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 670 75.04% 35.25 3.993 54.33% -0.604 0.4121
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 259 67.95% 38.78 10.977 53.67% 0.437 1.4198
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 630 82.54% 38.61 6.962 46.83% -0.315 0.8104
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 289 52.25% 32.11 5.074 74.74% 0.256 -0.2374
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 621 55.09% 31.61 0.706 66.18% -0.795 -0.0389
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 358 49.16% 38.14 4.551 75.14% -0.092 0.3602
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 242 66.94% 37.66 11.193 52.89% 0.334 1.5865
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 139 60.14% 46.43 16.326 62.59% 0.768 1.8003
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 91 78.02% 38.84 5.289 30.77% -1.036 1.0775
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 95 80.0% 50.55 13.027 41.05% -0.395 1.5659

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 52196 42.84 28.31 74.74% -0.121 0.5764 -0.546
1 Thematic 3020 53.92 26.48 63.31% -0.156 0.9251 -0.703
2 Archipelago 21 42.86 29.67 76.19%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8930 46.42 30.56 76.1% -0.181 0.3459 0.018
2 Coastline 1656 40.94 31.56 79.47% 0.202 0.4478 0.507
2 Fragment 324 46.89 28.18 72.84% 0.096 0.4349 -0.712
2 Heart 361 45.25 27.62 77.56% -0.2 0.3052 -0.171
2 Opposite Shores 2564 36.95 29.59 81.44% -0.214 0.3463 -0.621
2 Thematic 1344 54.77 32.58 67.49% 0.569 1.4028 0.314
2 Top to Top 439 40.92 31.05 81.09% 0.93 1.1208 0.522
3 Archipelago 34 35.29 30.59 97.06% 0.664 0.4747
3 Coastline 134 25.56 30.84 91.79% 0.687 0.2609 0.221
3 Other 560 38.39 29.51 85.36% 0.632 -0.0397 -0.296
3 Round (Default) 4372 40.68 32.03 80.03% -0.617 -0.2971 0.293
3 Sunrise 27 55.56 23.37 74.07% -0.754 -0.1912
3 Thematic 261 43.68 30.08 75.1% -0.133 -0.1442 0.374
4 Archipelago 37 29.73 32.59 89.19% 0.468 0.5243
4 Coastline 100 10.0 28.39 95.0% -0.364 -0.2496
4 Leaf 22 40.91 26.68 81.82%
4 Other 409 32.27 31.77 87.29% 0.601 -0.0434 0.31
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 542 37.08 32.71 79.15% 0.229 0.3021 -0.068
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3230 31.66 30.1 86.81% 0.299 0.3701 0.539
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 34.38 87.5%
5 Coastline 40 5.0 27.1 97.5% 0.018 -0.1815
5 Other 488 20.08 29.48 95.08% -0.095 -0.5021 -0.446
5 Thematic 99 29.29 27.46 88.89% -0.206 -0.3907
6 Archipelago 7 28.57 34.0 100.0%
6 Coastline 1 0.0 29.0 100.0% 0.006 -0.7198
6 Other 76 26.32 26.3 90.79% 0.01 0.0683 -0.27
6 Star 22 50.0 31.73 86.36% -0.601 0.0292 -0.048
6 Thematic 78 44.87 28.5 82.05% -0.26 0.1057
6 Two Centers (Default) 143 25.87 33.71 93.01% -0.661 -0.5802 0.316
7 Other 13 30.77 25.15 100.0% 0.253 -0.2154 0.199

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2774 22.75 46.25% -2.581 -0.5962 -0.991
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2318 23.68 47.8% -2.283 -0.5208 -0.774
All Things Weaken 1535 21.39 44.43% -3.022 -1.0033 -0.638
Back Against the Wall 2208 23.12 46.29% -2.161 -0.2308 -1.154
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2644 20.2 44.44% -2.443 -0.3083 -1.22
Downward Spiral 4272 21.44 53.23% -2.542 -0.5407 -1.042
Erosion of Will 2802 21.59 43.93% -2.973 -0.8935 -1.054
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 574 31.14 88.5% -0.022 0.454 -0.862
Memory Fades to Dust 4314 21.12 50.95% -2.684 -0.5264 -0.792
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1537 21.47 48.67% -2.457 -0.4807 -0.988
Promising Farmlands 2643 21.31 46.84% -2.709 -0.6578 -0.968
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 307 32.09 90.23% 0.416 0.9318 -0.244
Thriving Communities 1653 21.48 48.46% -2.782 -0.7403 -0.274
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.614
Unnatural Proliferation 1665 24.66 49.55% -2.752 -0.8018 -0.487
Untended Land Crumbles 1624 22.02 50.43% -2.665 -0.625 -0.834

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 16543 41.66% 28.97 77.51% -0.029 0.7076 -0.157
B 16666 42.27% 29.81 77.66% 0.168 0.8645 0.521
C 19953 39.6% 29.61 79.15% -0.005 0.4684 0.273
D 18038 41.06% 29.3 78.47% -0.023 0.707 0.034
E 9316 38.94% 29.52 80.29% 0.106 0.6457 0.266
F 12380 40.09% 29.64 78.55% -0.081 0.6011 0.388
G 11620 40.82% 29.41 78.18% -0.163 0.4951 0.19
H 12551 39.2% 29.81 79.53% -0.101 0.5903 0.386
East 3400 49.99% 30.65 68.03% -0.679 -0.0425 -0.492
Northeast 1748 52.69% 32.78 66.59% -0.097 0.5607 0.085
Northwest 1230 52.54% 32.66 67.07% 0.659 1.2877 -0.403
Southeast 1213 36.14% 28.73 78.9% -0.248 0.2828 0.439
Southwest 811 41.8% 28.74 77.44% 0.093 1.1087 0.481
West 2573 51.78% 30.47 67.43% -0.817 -0.0104 0.207

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2462 0.0% 24.59 75.51% -2.73 -0.4761 -0.509
Not Using Events or Tokens 2983 52.89% 23.43 69.8% 0.218 0.4229 -0.037
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5695 20.6% 34.4 88.38% 0.71 -0.1934 0.708
Start of Game Growth 8794 19.21% 33.65 89.2% 0.236 -0.2316 0.639
Unlimited Undo 8224 32.65% 31.59 82.65% 0.431 -0.1608 0.117
Using Tokens but Not Events 12529 28.05% 29.27 84.99% 0.562 0.707 0.424

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9582 22.64 9.78%
II 23834 31.07 65.52%
III 30164 34.65 90.73%
IV 17999 37.9 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.142 Win Model: 0.24
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 55658 43.44% 28.25 74.19%
2 15587 44.87% 30.54 76.79%
3 5282 39.9% 31.71 80.59%
4 4351 31.32% 30.41 86.39%
5 427 16.86% 27.76 93.21%
6 274 35.4% 30.37 89.05%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 933
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27262
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15573
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17915
Lose: Invader deck ran out 856
Lose: Adversary condition 2696
Win: Sacrifice victory 237
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15358
Lose: Spirit destroyed 749

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-16 03:17:35 (Pacific Time)