Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 345 46.67% 31.61 1.344 75.07% -0.485 0.082
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 900 50.39% 32.88 2.95 70.67% -0.925 -0.2359
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 561 58.93% 36.6 7.069 61.5% 0.199 1.2454
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 300 57.05% 36.72 3.953 54.0% -1.124 0.2642
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 198 72.08% 38.52 5.816 45.45% -0.964 0.7394
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 62 58.06% 39.89 12.225 43.55% -0.14 1.459
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 111 56.76% 43.27 10.21 39.64% -0.614 1.5773
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 942 50.42% 25.87 2.427 75.16% -0.089 0.199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3862 42.18% 31.9 2.623 81.25% 0.196 -0.0211
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3306 47.85% 38.76 4.733 76.53% -0.363 -0.1502
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2335 53.3% 43.61 8.221 71.43% -0.241 0.2557
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1506 52.86% 46.2 8.187 70.65% -0.831 -0.2936
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 835 63.58% 49.61 8.419 62.87% -1.26 -0.0805
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 676 72.16% 45.96 8.363 47.34% -1.156 0.4163
The Kingdom of England 0 1 633 46.12% 25.0 1.005 65.4% -0.224 0.191
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2268 44.81% 33.3 0.918 70.41% -1.215 -0.5015
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1379 58.39% 31.76 3.112 55.69% -0.674 0.3544
The Kingdom of England 3 6 671 60.75% 35.5 1.74 47.54% -1.811 -0.1524
The Kingdom of England 4 7 369 55.28% 37.5 3.862 44.72% -2.0 -0.3815
The Kingdom of England 5 9 154 68.63% 37.72 8.906 29.22% -0.402 1.6534
The Kingdom of England 6 11 260 64.09% 44.69 12.737 39.23% -0.964 1.4411
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 492 58.33% 26.49 1.108 60.98% -0.32 0.4823
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1233 58.05% 30.99 2.522 63.18% -0.262 0.6108
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 670 45.81% 32.37 3.944 38.96% -2.066 0.2046
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 424 53.07% 33.48 2.792 28.3% -2.287 0.045
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 247 56.5% 39.08 1.629 34.82% -2.475 -0.0682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 155 60.39% 40.26 3.164 31.61% -1.436 0.427
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 505 61.58% 47.03 3.96 36.04% -2.541 -0.2269
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 48 31.25% 34.88 0.561 77.08% -0.702 -0.8535
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 122 36.07% 35.69 3.871 76.23% -0.269 0.6174
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 76 38.16% 37.3 4.074 69.74% -0.68 0.2954
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 59 40.68% 41.88 6.959 59.32% -1.122 -0.403
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 36 41.67% 49.33 9.508 75.0% -0.419 0.8729
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 19 31.58% 47.11 8.765 57.89% -1.158 0.2371
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 50 66.0% 53.38 11.917 60.0% -0.661 0.9783
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 670 56.72% 24.93 0.568 72.24% -0.45 -0.3174
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1905 46.08% 30.04 1.957 77.69% 0.604 0.565
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1566 54.86% 31.45 2.912 71.9% -0.153 0.3257
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1056 66.0% 35.7 4.54 62.88% -0.159 0.1133
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 641 75.16% 35.28 5.298 54.29% -0.348 0.4894
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 253 68.38% 38.49 7.236 52.96% -0.425 0.4487
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 609 82.43% 38.58 1.173 46.8% -1.228 -0.0086
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 268 52.99% 31.22 2.129 74.63% -0.089 -0.2226
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 596 55.05% 31.65 2.401 66.44% -0.584 0.1942
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 342 48.83% 38.16 6.467 75.44% -0.071 0.4059
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 234 66.67% 37.16 8.127 51.71% -0.209 0.9697
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 133 60.61% 45.67 13.424 60.9% -0.052 1.2834
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 84 78.57% 38.93 10.582 30.95% -0.576 1.2735
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 91 79.12% 50.34 13.213 40.66% -0.171 1.7394

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 50286 42.76 28.26 74.83% -0.057 0.3902 -0.623
1 Thematic 2902 54.67 26.53 62.92% 0.309 0.9115 -0.772
2 Archipelago 21 42.86 29.67 76.19%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8575 46.61 30.45 76.08% -0.004 0.3875 0.01
2 Coastline 1604 40.68 31.63 79.49% -0.125 -0.0365 0.479
2 Fragment 317 46.67 28.05 72.56% -0.556 -0.4902 -0.958
2 Heart 344 46.04 27.85 77.62% 0.234 0.5063 -0.181
2 Opposite Shores 2496 36.99 29.44 81.49% -0.121 0.3721 -0.582
2 Thematic 1322 54.92 32.44 67.25% -0.258 0.2099 0.305
2 Top to Top 421 41.49 30.99 80.52% -0.363 -0.081 0.461
3 Archipelago 13 46.15 33.77 92.31% 0.229 -0.1543
3 Coastline 124 26.61 31.2 91.13% 0.626 -0.0133 0.196
3 Other 516 37.79 29.81 85.27% 0.324 -0.7651 -0.49
3 Round (Default) 4204 41.09 31.76 79.97% 0.153 0.4214 0.411
3 Sunrise 26 57.69 23.58 76.92% -0.287 -0.507
3 Thematic 251 43.03 30.22 75.7% -0.082 -0.3057 0.401
4 Archipelago 23 39.13 35.78 82.61% 0.076 -0.7756
4 Coastline 90 10.0 28.77 95.56% 0.263 0.271
4 Leaf 22 40.91 26.68 81.82%
4 Other 377 33.42 32.13 86.47% -0.195 -0.6406 0.324
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 531 36.35 32.8 79.28% 0.254 0.3497 -0.001
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3161 31.66 29.99 86.78% 0.076 -0.0612 0.568
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 34.38 87.5% 0.012 -0.4051
5 Coastline 33 6.06 27.27 96.97% 0.082 -0.4304
5 Other 443 19.86 29.45 95.03% -0.572 -0.3025 -0.415
5 Thematic 95 28.42 27.22 89.47% 0.098 -0.009
6 Archipelago 7 28.57 34.0 100.0%
6 Other 59 28.81 25.05 89.83% -0.082 0.8062
6 Star 19 52.63 34.47 89.47% 0.361 1.2552 0.041
6 Thematic 70 41.43 28.94 84.29% 0.133 0.4955
6 Two Centers (Default) 115 26.09 34.24 94.78% -0.189 0.1895 0.31
7 Other 6 33.33 23.33 100.0% 0.429 -0.5073

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2692 22.73 46.36% -2.363 -0.5318 -1.014
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2260 23.65 47.74% -2.452 -0.798 -0.769
All Things Weaken 1451 21.48 44.8% -2.631 -0.6546 -0.586
Back Against the Wall 2134 23.02 45.97% -2.233 -0.3744 -1.133
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2554 20.09 44.21% -2.552 -0.5773 -1.37
Downward Spiral 4153 21.43 53.36% -2.03 -0.1279 -1.069
Erosion of Will 2700 21.61 44.15% -2.349 -0.3053 -1.034
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 535 31.12 88.22% -0.184 0.3882 -0.896
Memory Fades to Dust 4189 21.11 51.06% -2.159 -0.1796 -0.81
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1464 21.38 48.5% -2.578 -0.6861 -0.994
Promising Farmlands 2548 21.29 46.94% -2.638 -0.5989 -1.012
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 294 32.05 89.8% -0.6 -0.1595 -0.216
Thriving Communities 1566 21.36 48.79% -2.105 -0.1405 -0.461
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.641
Unnatural Proliferation 1560 24.49 49.68% -2.35 -0.4436 -0.536
Untended Land Crumbles 1519 21.93 50.56% -2.413 -0.3783 -0.797

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 15911 41.78% 28.84 77.44% 0.238 1.0059 -0.073
B 15968 42.29% 29.64 77.62% 0.22 0.9127 0.447
C 19157 39.68% 29.53 79.15% 0.549 1.1133 0.358
D 17391 41.2% 29.21 78.41% 0.349 1.1177 0.124
E 8713 39.39% 29.53 80.06% 0.706 1.3048 0.253
F 11925 40.16% 29.6 78.59% 0.397 1.1068 0.463
G 11228 40.94% 29.33 78.17% 0.358 1.0841 0.269
H 12033 39.38% 29.81 79.49% 0.181 0.8709 0.406
East 3264 50.26% 30.79 67.86% -0.418 0.204 -0.42
Northeast 1694 52.37% 32.91 66.59% 0.359 1.0405 0.135
Northwest 1195 52.15% 32.7 66.95% 0.075 1.1417 -0.326
Southeast 1135 36.24% 28.81 79.03% 0.441 1.1688 0.409
Southwest 769 41.74% 28.73 77.37% 1.443 2.4135 0.483
West 2495 51.83% 30.49 67.25% -0.055 0.9486 0.286

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2386 0.0% 24.52 75.82% -1.785 0.2269 -0.508
Not Using Events or Tokens 2898 52.69% 23.46 70.05% 0.01 0.2239 0.032
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5512 20.62% 34.07 88.35% -0.257 -0.35 0.567
Start of Game Growth 8529 19.12% 33.39 89.28% 0.66 -0.0478 0.78
Unlimited Undo 8056 32.45% 31.57 82.68% 0.715 0.0158 0.154
Using Tokens but Not Events 11878 28.32% 28.99 84.86% 0.367 0.3219 0.51

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9229 22.6 9.84%
II 22958 31.02 65.56%
III 28998 34.59 90.75%
IV 17308 37.83 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.007 Win Model: -0.224
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 53586 43.39% 28.21 74.26%
2 15054 45.03% 30.44 76.7%
3 5035 40.34% 31.55 80.42%
4 4221 31.31% 30.37 86.31%
5 373 16.89% 27.47 93.3%
6 224 35.71% 30.56 89.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 904
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26212
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15012
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17228
Lose: Invader deck ran out 819
Lose: Adversary condition 2586
Win: Sacrifice victory 227
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14780
Lose: Spirit destroyed 725

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)