Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 161 44.72% 30.22 1.576 80.12% -0.049 0.2314
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 512 49.32% 32.83 2.866 72.66% -0.518 -0.1453
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 345 57.27% 36.9 4.931 62.61% -0.998 -0.1509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 179 57.87% 37.32 5.201 55.87% -1.437 -0.1995
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 111 78.18% 35.63 4.943 39.64% -1.584 -0.0621
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 29 68.97% 33.52 3.399 27.59% -2.349 -0.3212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 56 58.93% 43.54 8.411 41.07% -2.194 -0.102
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 964 54.77% 24.54 -0.697 74.48% 0.003 0.0501
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3776 44.26% 31.55 2.4 80.43% 0.1 0.0715
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3076 48.7% 38.35 5.973 74.71% -0.229 -0.2317
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2094 54.34% 43.37 8.598 70.11% -0.39 -0.1058
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1359 53.03% 46.31 9.962 70.42% -0.423 -0.0452
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 753 63.42% 50.14 12.118 63.75% -0.536 0.2978
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 626 69.69% 46.69 10.122 48.4% -1.339 -0.0893
The Kingdom of England 0 1 562 48.58% 22.67 -1.933 63.7% -0.981 -0.6482
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2012 48.95% 32.31 2.747 67.4% -0.806 -0.3231
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1203 60.55% 31.17 2.44 53.62% -1.274 -0.3163
The Kingdom of England 3 6 549 62.96% 35.15 4.387 46.27% -1.713 -0.1362
The Kingdom of England 4 7 298 61.95% 36.71 4.964 41.28% -2.143 -0.6206
The Kingdom of England 5 9 121 65.83% 38.4 5.794 29.75% -2.723 -0.6595
The Kingdom of England 6 11 255 54.15% 49.38 10.785 46.27% -2.327 -0.0713
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 480 58.54% 25.54 -0.412 60.83% -0.896 -0.3716
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1260 58.27% 30.38 1.888 61.11% -0.903 -0.0115
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 642 46.65% 33.24 2.908 41.9% -2.789 -0.6606
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 450 56.12% 34.78 3.972 31.56% -3.048 -0.8621
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 253 58.89% 38.57 5.98 33.99% -2.786 -0.6409
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 137 61.03% 39.26 6.258 29.2% -2.955 -1.1368
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 453 59.6% 47.32 9.985 35.76% -2.897 -0.7615
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 562 60.5% 23.21 -1.362 70.82% -0.069 0.0161
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1810 48.36% 29.58 1.284 75.64% -0.195 -0.1852
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1394 55.17% 31.62 2.485 71.31% -0.278 -0.0612
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 924 63.71% 36.06 4.919 62.45% -0.615 -0.3302
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 566 74.38% 36.4 5.316 55.83% -0.708 0.0692
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 237 73.0% 38.6 6.253 50.63% -0.964 0.2009
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 561 78.57% 40.6 7.208 49.2% -0.994 0.1389
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 88 52.27% 27.09 0.243 80.68% 0.104 -0.0134
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 292 51.37% 31.89 2.251 67.47% -0.871 -0.1829
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 179 44.13% 39.07 5.72 79.33% -0.224 0.2119
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 114 69.3% 33.56 3.717 44.74% -1.518 -0.2436
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 65 61.54% 45.11 8.927 61.54% -0.862 0.2954
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 39 84.62% 38.38 6.06 30.77% -1.789 0.2474
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 46 76.09% 51.78 12.297 41.3% -1.516 0.4338

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 42841 44.93 27.57 -0.631 73.34% -0.6 -0.2449
1 Thematic 2444 58.49 27.01 -0.481 59.04% -0.849 -0.3513
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7715 48.7 30.84 0.694 74.61% -0.111 0.0787
2 Coastline 1302 46.96 30.76 0.557 76.5% -0.093 0.0421
2 Fragment 279 46.76 27.02 -1.633 70.25% -0.681 -0.2552
2 Heart 212 50.0 27.17 -0.766 75.0% -0.368 -0.0772
2 Opposite Shores 1943 47.46 29.98 0.086 75.91% -0.132 0.0942
2 Thematic 1067 56.47 32.41 1.038 64.48% -0.225 -0.181
2 Top to Top 381 44.71 32.05 0.968 79.0% 0.071 0.1879
3 Coastline 54 44.44 36.76 2.856 79.63% 0.628 0.5902
3 Other 269 44.61 30.38 -0.032 79.93% -0.23 0.1714
3 Round (Default) 3819 42.75 31.95 0.723 78.82% 0.158 0.1888
3 Sunrise 23 47.83 30.61 0.085 82.61% 0.149 -0.1042
3 Thematic 157 53.5 34.5 0.895 62.42% -0.268 -0.6072
4 Coastline 13 23.08 33.85 0.746 84.62% -0.429 -0.3065
4 Leaf 15 46.67 30.4 -0.34 80.0% 0.159 0.2385
4 Other 181 42.54 34.69 1.573 83.43% 0.192 0.2733
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0 43.8 4.214 100.0% 0.347 -0.4453
4 Snake 1 100.0 20.0 -7.671 0.0% -0.303 -0.1772
4 Thematic 486 43.8 34.78 0.937 72.84% 0.508 -0.5703
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2947 32.47 31.11 0.178 86.6% 0.464 0.432
5 Other 122 22.13 32.38 0.714 98.36% 1.222 1.0045
5 Thematic 17 29.41 32.71 1.216 100.0% 0.952 -1.8154

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2765 22.74 -4.366 46.47% -3.165 -1.0966
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2210 23.42 -4.075 46.29% -3.226 -1.309
All Things Weaken 740 21.07 -5.057 43.78% -3.316 -1.1556
Back Against the Wall 2108 23.03 -4.254 45.54% -3.254 -1.1618
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2386 20.42 -5.65 43.96% -3.264 -1.0429
Downward Spiral 4455 20.91 -4.696 53.29% -2.878 -0.8642
Erosion of Will 2670 21.0 -5.189 42.58% -3.372 -1.1604
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 272 31.26 0.058 87.87% -0.895 -0.1833
Memory Fades to Dust 4182 20.64 -4.95 50.31% -3.077 -0.8609
Power Corrodes the Spirit 729 20.83 -5.027 47.33% -3.154 -1.1345
Promising Farmlands 2474 20.87 -5.266 45.39% -3.217 -1.0028
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 142 33.69 0.805 88.73% -0.932 -0.5152
Thriving Communities 758 21.09 -5.067 46.7% -3.199 -1.0925
Tipping Point 1584 21.71 -4.863 45.08% -3.166 -0.9497
Unnatural Proliferation 796 24.44 -3.525 48.49% -3.013 -0.9328
Untended Land Crumbles 775 22.58 -4.287 50.97% -2.995 -0.8999

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 15873 44.7% 29.03 -0.094 75.74% 0.842 -0.2309
B 16171 44.85% 29.54 0.221 75.52% 0.842 -0.322
C 18365 43.49% 29.45 0.354 76.56% 0.952 -0.445
D 17212 44.7% 29.18 0.179 76.27% 0.942 -0.2159
E 3854 42.8% 29.89 0.254 77.61% 0.889 -0.3683
F 6983 41.76% 29.88 0.118 77.24% 0.814 -0.4123
G 6776 42.44% 29.69 0.064 77.18% 0.817 -0.3957
H 7234 40.48% 30.21 0.356 78.39% 0.887 -0.334
East 1565 55.57% 31.92 0.565 63.45% 0.681 -0.2544
Northeast 1609 55.14% 32.69 1.103 63.58% 0.692 -0.1772
Northwest 1209 56.22% 32.64 0.774 63.11% 0.706 -0.2388
Southeast 628 40.03% 27.87 -0.089 76.59% 0.968 -0.0153
Southwest 478 43.93% 27.81 -0.549 75.52% 0.965 0.3396
West 1379 54.65% 31.44 0.247 62.07% 0.404 -0.2608

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2419 0.0% 24.17 -3.06 74.16% -2.709 -0.67
Not Using Events or Tokens 3131 54.29% 21.87 -2.625 68.35% -0.331 -0.1104
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5292 23.19% 35.48 2.488 86.49% 0.501 -0.2045
Start of Game Growth 7209 21.29% 35.1 2.5 87.57% 0.592 0.1327
Unlimited Undo 6951 35.55% 33.04 1.182 79.99% 0.082 -0.32
Using Tokens but Not Events 9256 33.29% 27.26 -0.699 83.06% 0.141 0.0952

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8592 22.34 10.35%
II 19801 30.71 63.89%
III 23769 34.23 89.92%
IV 14131 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.31 Win Model: -0.857
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 45511 45.67% 27.57 72.63%
2 12834 48.9% 30.74 74.22%
3 4266 43.38% 32.04 78.18%
4 3682 33.75% 31.66 84.93%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 585
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 16121
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9052
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10779
Lose: Invader deck ran out 703
Lose: Adversary condition 2114
Win: Sacrifice victory 192
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13659
Lose: Spirit destroyed 775

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)