Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 178 46.07% 29.65 1.317 77.53% -0.198 0.0825
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 593 48.31% 33.05 3.001 73.02% -0.511 -0.1208
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 383 57.07% 36.93 4.954 62.66% -1.015 -0.1449
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 204 56.16% 37.15 5.113 55.39% -1.532 -0.2748
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 125 75.0% 36.02 5.13 40.0% -1.668 -0.139
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 40 65.0% 35.08 4.443 32.5% -2.276 -0.2498
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 74 55.41% 44.26 8.856 43.24% -2.185 -0.1144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1011 54.3% 24.46 -0.75 74.18% -0.032 0.0057
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4046 44.06% 31.58 2.415 80.52% 0.1 0.0697
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3280 48.9% 38.37 6.003 74.97% -0.206 -0.2017
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2226 54.21% 43.28 8.567 70.04% -0.397 -0.1058
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1447 52.95% 46.29 9.984 70.49% -0.42 -0.0591
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 801 63.36% 49.96 12.068 63.42% -0.545 0.2831
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 671 71.15% 46.18 9.977 47.54% -1.343 -0.0982
The Kingdom of England 0 1 615 47.64% 22.72 -1.914 63.74% -1.012 -0.6805
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2226 48.56% 32.38 2.805 67.74% -0.796 -0.2961
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1310 60.49% 31.19 2.488 53.59% -1.28 -0.3108
The Kingdom of England 3 6 598 62.58% 34.94 4.327 45.99% -1.759 -0.1806
The Kingdom of England 4 7 324 61.3% 36.36 4.83 40.74% -2.236 -0.7345
The Kingdom of England 5 9 128 66.93% 37.86 5.613 28.91% -2.748 -0.6779
The Kingdom of England 6 11 273 54.98% 49.05 10.729 45.79% -2.321 -0.0696
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 514 58.95% 25.46 -0.425 60.89% -0.882 -0.3573
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1351 58.01% 30.42 1.912 61.36% -0.896 -0.003
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 686 46.42% 33.19 2.94 41.98% -2.778 -0.649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 474 55.6% 34.82 4.019 31.65% -3.053 -0.8662
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 274 59.12% 38.03 5.744 32.85% -2.849 -0.7071
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 152 60.93% 39.18 6.204 28.95% -3.019 -1.1962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 492 59.96% 47.33 10.072 35.98% -2.855 -0.7392
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 615 59.84% 23.34 -1.292 71.71% -0.033 0.0552
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1985 47.93% 29.61 1.336 75.97% -0.174 -0.154
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1519 54.85% 31.52 2.477 71.03% -0.301 -0.0782
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1020 63.69% 36.23 5.052 63.04% -0.579 -0.2937
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 625 73.92% 36.22 5.269 55.68% -0.73 0.0375
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 259 71.04% 38.63 6.302 51.74% -0.97 0.1907
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 632 79.08% 40.27 7.185 49.37% -0.976 0.1567
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 104 55.77% 26.71 0.174 79.81% 0.174 0.054
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 377 52.27% 31.76 2.293 67.11% -0.872 -0.1537
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 218 45.41% 38.52 5.54 77.52% -0.31 0.1316
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 153 66.67% 35.43 4.524 49.02% -1.48 -0.2289
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 81 64.2% 43.05 8.154 56.79% -1.016 0.1074
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 50 84.0% 39.7 6.835 34.0% -1.679 0.3676
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 69 75.36% 52.78 13.208 44.93% -1.389 0.5456

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 46822 44.79 27.62 -0.586 73.4% -0.614 -0.2869
1 Thematic 2667 57.46 26.86 -0.534 59.51% -0.947 -0.4737
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8372 48.38 30.79 0.659 74.87% -0.088 0.1085
2 Coastline 1427 45.8 30.52 0.482 76.8% -0.099 0.0519
2 Fragment 300 48.49 26.94 -1.578 69.33% -0.703 -0.2985
2 Heart 232 48.7 27.25 -0.761 76.29% -0.336 -0.0237
2 Opposite Shores 2199 45.88 29.67 -0.08 76.81% -0.108 0.1151
2 Thematic 1140 56.15 32.55 1.09 64.82% -0.345 -0.3165
2 Top to Top 409 45.32 31.87 0.921 78.48% 0.064 0.204
3 Coastline 56 42.86 36.41 2.727 80.36% 0.708 0.6611
3 Other 315 43.49 30.64 0.15 81.59% -0.093 0.3457
3 Round (Default) 4158 42.67 31.97 0.765 78.79% 0.207 0.2654
3 Sunrise 25 52.0 31.84 0.791 84.0% 0.399 0.2017
3 Thematic 164 53.66 33.92 0.689 61.59% -0.468 -0.8286
4 Coastline 19 15.79 31.79 0.32 89.47% -0.324 -0.1526
4 Leaf 15 46.67 30.4 -0.307 80.0% 0.186 0.2489
4 Other 221 39.37 35.1 1.807 84.62% 0.26 0.391
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0 43.8 4.415 100.0% 0.358 -0.4216
4 Snake 1 100.0 20.0 -7.595 0.0% -0.286 -0.131
4 Thematic 516 41.83 34.77 0.954 73.84% 0.327 -0.7332
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3204 32.05 30.9 0.139 86.52% 0.503 0.5411
5 Other 135 25.19 31.64 0.465 97.78% 1.172 0.9733
5 Thematic 23 21.74 32.91 1.127 100.0% 0.881 -2.0759

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2978 22.57 -4.442 46.07% -3.177 -1.1063
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2386 23.47 -4.01 46.73% -3.2 -1.2778
All Things Weaken 853 20.98 -5.096 43.38% -3.321 -1.1675
Back Against the Wall 2281 22.88 -4.293 45.2% -3.255 -1.159
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2588 20.33 -5.671 43.89% -3.271 -1.0449
Downward Spiral 4713 20.87 -4.739 53.13% -2.89 -0.8712
Erosion of Will 2855 21.03 -5.17 42.56% -3.363 -1.1528
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 320 31.43 0.057 88.44% -0.893 -0.1996
Memory Fades to Dust 4442 20.69 -4.944 50.34% -3.073 -0.8572
Power Corrodes the Spirit 875 21.13 -4.881 48.46% -3.097 -1.0802
Promising Farmlands 2657 20.99 -5.19 45.84% -3.198 -0.9843
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 174 32.84 0.495 89.08% -0.874 -0.444
Thriving Communities 911 21.0 -5.073 46.32% -3.202 -1.1058
Tipping Point 1584 21.71 -4.844 45.08% -3.158 -0.9372
Unnatural Proliferation 972 24.25 -3.565 48.66% -3.018 -0.932
Untended Land Crumbles 929 22.5 -4.344 50.7% -3.015 -0.919

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 17007 44.75% 28.92 -0.136 75.59% 0.824 -0.278
B 17390 44.75% 29.47 0.189 75.53% 0.831 -0.3647
C 19757 43.09% 29.49 0.37 76.68% 0.943 -0.4856
D 18523 44.4% 29.16 0.177 76.45% 0.943 -0.2475
E 4699 41.59% 29.9 0.283 78.48% 0.927 -0.3719
F 7985 41.51% 29.89 0.165 77.5% 0.833 -0.4209
G 7652 41.96% 29.56 0.018 77.21% 0.789 -0.4538
H 8139 40.36% 30.14 0.33 78.5% 0.891 -0.366
East 1653 54.82% 31.99 0.604 63.76% 0.737 -0.2232
Northeast 1707 54.0% 32.62 1.114 64.15% 0.761 -0.1403
Northwest 1261 55.56% 32.61 0.787 63.36% 0.771 -0.2039
Southeast 739 38.35% 28.11 0.063 77.67% 1.107 0.1025
Southwest 539 42.86% 27.94 -0.545 75.88% 1.008 0.4088
West 1464 53.52% 31.44 0.258 62.64% 0.463 -0.2364

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2662 0.0% 24.15 -3.035 74.0% -2.746 -0.6975
Not Using Events or Tokens 3333 54.39% 21.94 -2.583 68.23% -0.318 -0.097
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5840 22.54% 34.89 2.323 86.7% 0.475 -0.2296
Start of Game Growth 8009 20.81% 34.58 2.338 87.83% 0.6 0.1482
Unlimited Undo 7656 34.54% 32.69 1.093 80.66% 0.105 -0.3117
Using Tokens but Not Events 10239 32.59% 27.65 -0.517 83.33% 0.163 0.1124

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9277 22.33 10.33%
II 21741 30.75 63.94%
III 26019 34.25 90.06%
IV 15388 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.298 Win Model: -0.91
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 49752 45.47% 27.6 72.71%
2 14006 48.34% 30.63 74.6%
3 4673 43.06% 32.08 78.3%
4 3994 33.19% 31.46 85.03%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 653
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 18174
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10300
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12031
Lose: Invader deck ran out 773
Lose: Adversary condition 2315
Win: Sacrifice victory 210
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14819
Lose: Spirit destroyed 837

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)