Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 379 47.23% 31.8 3.108 74.14% 0.076 0.3195
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 980 49.59% 32.83 1.742 70.31% -0.511 -0.1022
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 617 58.37% 36.12 2.672 59.97% -0.858 -0.0996
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 333 55.59% 37.01 3.405 54.95% -0.619 0.4276
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 223 71.62% 39.27 3.861 46.64% -0.872 0.4532
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 74 60.81% 39.05 6.834 41.89% -0.571 1.1436
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 118 56.78% 43.48 4.759 40.68% -0.002 2.046
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1036 50.68% 25.84 -0.318 74.42% 0.096 0.2071
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4162 41.71% 31.83 2.612 81.02% 0.067 -0.0171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3630 47.85% 38.54 5.818 75.98% 0.155 0.1384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2650 53.06% 43.49 8.648 71.32% 0.02 0.2552
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1711 52.26% 45.78 6.907 69.96% -0.576 -0.4914
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 956 62.33% 48.81 7.109 61.4% -0.962 -0.4688
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 773 69.76% 44.77 3.072 45.8% -1.798 -0.4904
The Kingdom of England 0 1 714 46.77% 25.42 -1.252 64.85% -0.773 -0.5327
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2458 44.74% 33.08 0.076 69.85% -0.765 -0.5921
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1536 57.84% 31.3 0.072 54.62% -1.156 -0.4224
The Kingdom of England 3 6 743 58.32% 35.29 1.19 47.11% -1.618 -0.489
The Kingdom of England 4 7 410 53.9% 37.63 5.502 45.12% -1.001 -0.0024
The Kingdom of England 5 9 180 67.04% 38.21 9.455 31.67% -0.315 1.312
The Kingdom of England 6 11 307 62.25% 42.93 -0.837 37.13% -2.051 0.0085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 577 55.11% 27.27 1.145 60.49% -0.573 -0.1761
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1350 57.5% 30.77 0.931 62.67% -0.725 0.2592
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 760 43.52% 33.08 4.037 40.39% -1.262 -0.1534
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 490 50.61% 34.5 5.018 30.82% -1.109 0.2465
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 276 56.36% 39.43 5.933 36.23% -1.03 0.405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 167 60.24% 39.89 1.178 31.74% -0.773 0.0851
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 546 60.62% 46.68 6.51 35.53% -1.728 -0.4064
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 99 41.41% 33.63 1.259 72.73% 0.053 0.0093
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 231 36.52% 34.89 3.268 73.16% -0.185 0.2349
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 171 35.12% 36.94 3.692 70.18% -0.304 0.0673
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 139 37.96% 45.05 10.231 69.06% 0.127 0.5103
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 39.53% 45.06 6.047 65.12% -1.061 -0.453
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 50 42.0% 46.32 12.408 60.0% 0.079 0.8313
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 135 65.93% 48.32 4.681 54.07% -1.356 -0.0786
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 738 56.1% 24.92 -1.931 71.41% -0.422 -0.2619
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2126 45.33% 30.17 1.973 77.85% 0.126 0.146
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1777 54.28% 31.43 3.416 71.81% 0.166 0.3905
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1209 65.15% 35.55 1.621 62.94% -0.72 -0.3062
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 713 73.88% 35.15 0.649 54.56% -0.94 -0.35
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 275 67.27% 38.4 7.034 53.82% -0.08 0.8369
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 672 81.99% 38.06 2.016 46.73% -0.811 0.0288
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 312 50.0% 32.29 2.424 74.36% -0.017 0.0956
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 679 53.62% 31.71 3.671 66.86% 0.102 0.6506
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 403 48.14% 37.55 3.635 73.7% -0.363 -0.0185
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 273 66.3% 36.76 1.167 51.28% -1.186 -0.0447
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 143 59.15% 46.76 15.63 62.94% -0.043 0.9626
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 96 76.04% 40.22 19.133 33.33% 0.044 1.4863
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 108 73.15% 52.19 17.718 44.44% -0.759 1.1732

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 55949 42.66 28.12 74.22% -0.428 -0.2593 -0.463
1 Thematic 3077 53.68 26.35 63.02% -0.784 -0.1941 -0.592
2 Archipelago 29 34.48 31.59 82.76% 0.82 1.1956
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9673 45.95 30.39 75.57% -0.324 -0.2112 0.014
2 Coastline 1791 40.14 31.19 78.67% -0.324 -0.358 0.477
2 Fragment 353 47.29 27.7 71.95% -0.032 -0.1484 -0.626
2 Heart 411 44.33 27.59 78.35% 0.502 0.154 -0.242
2 Opposite Shores 2813 35.63 29.72 81.8% 0.387 0.4564 -0.601
2 Thematic 1463 53.8 32.32 66.44% -0.594 -0.0004 0.365
2 Top to Top 487 40.58 31.21 80.7% 0.327 0.2751 0.568
3 Archipelago 37 32.43 30.59 94.59%
3 Coastline 153 24.34 29.88 91.5% 0.213 -0.2602 0.455
3 Other 657 37.44 28.59 85.08% 0.685 0.9555 -0.335
3 Round (Default) 4823 38.92 32.45 80.18% 0.121 -0.0362 0.228
3 Sunrise 27 55.56 23.37 74.07%
3 Thematic 290 41.38 30.32 76.21% 0.638 0.6708 0.461
4 Archipelago 37 29.73 32.59 89.19%
4 Coastline 116 8.62 28.27 95.69% 0.107 0.2828
4 Leaf 24 45.83 25.83 79.17% -0.022 -0.7337
4 Other 480 32.08 30.51 86.04% 0.38 -0.7156 0.049
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 555 36.94 32.41 78.2% -0.487 -0.6463 -0.336
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3327 31.82 30.04 86.53% 0.109 -0.1291 0.476
5 Archipelago 9 22.22 30.56 77.78% -0.833 -1.8839
5 Coastline 53 5.66 26.7 94.34% 0.187 -0.1089
5 Other 605 18.68 28.84 94.55% 0.256 -0.3042 -0.387
5 Thematic 106 29.25 27.89 87.74% 0.267 0.1481
6 Archipelago 8 25.0 33.88 100.0% -0.633 -0.4516
6 Coastline 2 50.0 27.0 100.0% 0.192 -0.569
6 Other 109 29.63 26.17 89.91% 0.332 -0.0663 -0.27
6 Star 27 44.44 29.89 85.19% -0.105 -0.0725 -0.08
6 Thematic 94 42.55 27.35 78.72% -0.226 0.1848
6 Two Centers (Default) 190 25.26 32.13 88.42% -0.34 -0.3765 0.332
7 Other 17 35.29 24.0 94.12% -0.496 -1.4684 0.217

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2893 22.63 46.25% -1.349 -1.1588 -0.925
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2434 23.71 47.82% -1.029 -1.0929 -0.763
All Things Weaken 1660 21.51 44.16% -1.363 -0.9759 -0.564
Attenuated Essence 30 20.4 46.67% -0.955 -0.8493 -0.264
Back Against the Wall 2310 23.2 46.32% -1.014 -0.9511 -1.106
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 16.65 41.86% -1.364 -1.0806 -0.399
Burn Brightest Before the End 36 23.03 58.33% -0.908 -0.717
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2794 20.07 44.06% -1.528 -1.0964 -1.196
Downward Spiral 4511 21.43 53.27% -0.94 -0.6796 -0.916
Erosion of Will 2925 21.45 43.83% -1.332 -1.0028 -0.959
Intensifying Exploitation 46 16.09 43.48% -1.21 -0.912 0.019
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 627 30.96 87.88% 0.355 -0.1438 -0.618
Memory Fades to Dust 4515 21.09 50.99% -1.058 -0.6643 -0.744
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1693 21.45 48.43% -1.313 -1.0676 -1.034
Promising Farmlands 2803 21.15 46.81% -1.407 -0.9204 -0.88
Shattered Fragments of Power 40 23.57 37.5% -1.258 -1.1815 -0.676
Slow Dissolution of Will 59 18.22 45.76% -1.26 -0.8256 -0.593
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 330 32.05 89.7% 0.088 -0.5445 0.017
The Border of Life and Death 10 20.8 60.0% -0.443 -0.8032 -0.32
Thriving Communities 1793 21.28 48.19% -1.432 -1.0541 -0.368
Thriving Crops 26 27.15 76.92% 0.055 -0.001
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.551
Unnatural Proliferation 1774 24.59 49.44% -0.92 -0.72 -0.548
Untended Land Crumbles 1750 21.92 50.23% -1.104 -0.8347 -0.91

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 17793 41.11% 28.97 77.06% -0.405 0.4569 -0.178
B 17990 41.67% 29.71 77.18% -0.263 0.5647 0.39
C 21501 38.98% 29.54 78.96% -0.018 0.6707 0.226
D 19345 40.6% 29.17 77.98% -0.316 0.5119 0.026
E 10689 37.47% 29.2 80.11% -0.03 0.6286 0.24
F 13419 39.8% 29.44 78.1% -0.273 0.4792 0.372
G 12558 40.49% 29.21 77.83% -0.292 0.4779 0.096
H 13634 38.88% 29.59 79.35% -0.049 0.6403 0.334
East 3592 49.37% 30.52 67.54% 0.195 0.8422 -0.608
Northeast 1847 51.71% 32.47 66.05% -0.778 0.0561 0.014
Northwest 1317 51.53% 32.27 66.14% -0.175 0.6171 -0.529
Southeast 1303 36.33% 28.81 78.2% 0.369 1.1331 0.22
Southwest 878 41.34% 28.21 75.85% -0.6 0.4852 0.514
West 2737 50.84% 30.1 66.61% -1.035 -0.0795 0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2633 0.0% 24.41 74.63% -1.15 -0.3246 -0.48
Not Using Events or Tokens 3170 52.65% 23.03 68.9% -0.192 0.1444 -0.023
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6174 19.92% 34.74 87.69% 0.809 0.2016 0.467
Start of Game Growth 9461 18.71% 33.8 88.47% -0.197 -0.4749 0.634
Unlimited Undo 8816 31.91% 31.61 82.03% -0.087 -0.0867 0.055
Using Tokens but Not Events 14008 27.16% 29.29 84.8% 0.451 0.381 0.452

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10702 20.73 9.51%
II 25671 31.02 65.64%
III 32307 34.75 90.69%
IV 19162 38.04 99.98%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.179 Win Model: 0.169
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 59559 43.22% 28.05 73.72%
2 16960 44.14% 30.4 76.4%
3 5859 38.3% 31.89 80.68%
4 4540 31.2% 30.23 86.04%
5 567 17.11% 27.17 91.71%
6 357 33.71% 29.4 86.27%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1014
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29180
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16807
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19067
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 655
Lose: Invader deck ran out 924
Lose: Adversary condition 2900
Win: Sacrifice victory 257
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16243
Lose: Spirit destroyed 795

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)