Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 166 45.18% 29.96 1.457 78.92% -0.12 0.1629
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 548 49.36% 32.71 2.817 72.08% -0.558 -0.1635
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 363 57.18% 37.03 4.993 63.09% -0.981 -0.1199
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 189 56.91% 37.3 5.171 56.08% -1.468 -0.2175
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 119 77.12% 35.73 5.024 39.5% -1.614 -0.0798
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 36 66.67% 35.42 4.549 33.33% -2.152 -0.0842
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 67 56.72% 44.4 8.912 43.28% -2.127 -0.0496
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 977 54.35% 24.56 -0.703 74.51% -0.013 0.0297
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3892 44.19% 31.55 2.4 80.47% 0.098 0.0719
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3163 48.72% 38.35 5.986 74.83% -0.219 -0.2186
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2152 54.08% 43.42 8.626 70.31% -0.387 -0.0941
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1406 53.0% 46.28 9.966 70.34% -0.433 -0.0626
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 774 63.64% 50.11 12.127 63.7% -0.529 0.309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 642 70.46% 46.51 10.091 48.13% -1.33 -0.0816
The Kingdom of England 0 1 586 48.12% 22.81 -1.875 64.16% -0.972 -0.6416
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2114 49.1% 32.27 2.74 67.31% -0.808 -0.3189
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1247 60.58% 31.2 2.468 53.65% -1.273 -0.3087
The Kingdom of England 3 6 568 63.07% 34.93 4.298 45.77% -1.75 -0.1702
The Kingdom of England 4 7 305 61.51% 36.74 4.984 41.31% -2.173 -0.6585
The Kingdom of England 5 9 123 66.39% 38.12 5.705 29.27% -2.732 -0.6608
The Kingdom of England 6 11 259 54.09% 49.36 10.801 46.33% -2.334 -0.077
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 493 58.82% 25.54 -0.399 60.85% -0.886 -0.3603
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1303 58.0% 30.46 1.924 61.4% -0.898 -0.01
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 668 46.63% 33.11 2.883 41.62% -2.801 -0.6738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 468 55.46% 34.89 4.038 31.84% -3.049 -0.865
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 266 58.65% 37.96 5.698 32.71% -2.886 -0.7352
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 144 60.14% 39.58 6.382 29.86% -2.975 -1.1489
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 466 60.3% 47.18 9.961 35.62% -2.87 -0.7423
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 581 60.07% 23.27 -1.34 71.08% -0.063 0.0247
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1879 48.34% 29.52 1.276 75.68% -0.191 -0.1804
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1429 55.29% 31.51 2.442 71.1% -0.29 -0.0706
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 952 63.93% 35.95 4.878 62.29% -0.625 -0.3418
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 590 74.75% 36.36 5.32 55.76% -0.703 0.0676
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 241 72.61% 38.7 6.325 51.04% -0.949 0.2186
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 588 78.71% 40.72 7.329 49.66% -0.962 0.1695
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 94 52.13% 26.83 0.101 80.85% 0.127 0.0042
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 325 50.46% 31.93 2.267 67.38% -0.925 -0.2093
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 197 45.18% 38.7 5.586 78.68% -0.247 0.1906
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 131 67.18% 34.31 4.094 46.56% -1.494 -0.2352
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 73 61.64% 44.58 8.777 60.27% -0.911 0.2292
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 45 82.22% 39.44 6.596 33.33% -1.798 0.2623
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 65 75.38% 53.45 13.474 46.15% -1.333 0.6023

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 44651 44.93 27.59 -0.615 73.36% -0.64 -0.2809
1 Thematic 2513 58.27 26.92 -0.523 58.97% -0.964 -0.4602
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7960 48.6 30.87 0.707 74.59% -0.101 0.095
2 Coastline 1343 46.67 30.61 0.509 76.69% -0.087 0.0551
2 Fragment 287 47.55 27.21 -1.497 70.03% -0.67 -0.2478
2 Heart 218 49.07 27.39 -0.669 75.69% -0.35 -0.0574
2 Opposite Shores 2061 46.34 29.96 0.036 76.61% -0.111 0.1138
2 Thematic 1092 56.24 32.37 1.028 64.74% -0.338 -0.2936
2 Top to Top 393 45.13 31.87 0.907 78.88% 0.075 0.2091
3 Coastline 54 44.44 36.76 2.865 79.63% 0.694 0.6606
3 Other 295 44.75 30.38 0.017 80.68% -0.134 0.2817
3 Round (Default) 3983 42.38 31.89 0.719 79.01% 0.216 0.2547
3 Sunrise 23 47.83 30.61 0.104 82.61% 0.196 -0.0271
3 Thematic 160 53.75 34.17 0.78 61.88% -0.415 -0.7719
4 Coastline 19 15.79 31.79 0.282 89.47% -0.336 -0.1776
4 Leaf 15 46.67 30.4 -0.312 80.0% 0.213 0.2407
4 Other 195 41.54 34.29 1.416 83.59% 0.253 0.3663
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0 43.8 4.294 100.0% 0.367 -0.4218
4 Snake 1 100.0 20.0 -7.626 0.0% -0.282 -0.1575
4 Thematic 500 43.17 34.78 0.954 73.4% 0.388 -0.6984
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3048 32.05 31.05 0.176 86.65% 0.565 0.5483
5 Other 130 23.85 31.7 0.427 97.69% 1.137 0.9181
5 Thematic 17 29.41 32.71 1.207 100.0% 0.881 -1.9465

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2872 22.61 -4.419 46.38% -3.171 -1.1011
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2302 23.4 -4.057 46.57% -3.213 -1.295
All Things Weaken 788 20.88 -5.166 43.27% -3.339 -1.1841
Back Against the Wall 2184 22.94 -4.283 45.24% -3.263 -1.1668
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2464 20.44 -5.637 43.91% -3.265 -1.041
Downward Spiral 4580 20.89 -4.71 53.21% -2.887 -0.8704
Erosion of Will 2746 20.99 -5.191 42.5% -3.373 -1.1639
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 288 31.56 0.145 87.85% -0.915 -0.2103
Memory Fades to Dust 4285 20.71 -4.925 50.43% -3.073 -0.8579
Power Corrodes the Spirit 796 21.08 -4.917 48.24% -3.113 -1.0932
Promising Farmlands 2547 20.87 -5.253 45.62% -3.212 -0.9998
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 157 33.16 0.625 88.54% -0.943 -0.5074
Thriving Communities 832 20.96 -5.083 46.88% -3.188 -1.09
Tipping Point 1584 21.71 -4.854 45.08% -3.165 -0.9469
Unnatural Proliferation 870 24.41 -3.508 48.74% -3.013 -0.9355
Untended Land Crumbles 846 22.63 -4.276 50.83% -3.001 -0.9028

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 16354 44.76% 28.98 -0.109 75.68% 0.825 -0.2642
B 16730 44.75% 29.5 0.204 75.52% 0.828 -0.3573
C 18939 43.35% 29.43 0.347 76.59% 0.937 -0.4781
D 17782 44.6% 29.15 0.176 76.33% 0.935 -0.2423
E 4232 42.14% 29.94 0.299 78.21% 0.915 -0.3619
F 7424 41.49% 29.93 0.158 77.48% 0.824 -0.4187
G 7152 42.02% 29.6 0.022 77.25% 0.794 -0.4364
H 7647 40.18% 30.19 0.344 78.44% 0.873 -0.3667
East 1588 55.49% 31.85 0.545 63.48% 0.717 -0.234
Northeast 1645 54.82% 32.64 1.112 63.77% 0.745 -0.1451
Northwest 1229 56.12% 32.63 0.794 63.22% 0.76 -0.2052
Southeast 659 39.82% 27.95 -0.063 76.78% 1.026 0.0249
Southwest 499 43.29% 27.89 -0.549 75.95% 1.014 0.4059
West 1404 54.18% 31.49 0.283 62.54% 0.47 -0.2156

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2507 0.0% 24.11 -3.083 73.95% -2.739 -0.6953
Not Using Events or Tokens 3194 54.36% 21.84 -2.631 68.22% -0.326 -0.1066
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5489 22.9% 35.19 2.391 86.55% 0.492 -0.2117
Start of Game Growth 7498 21.05% 34.86 2.431 87.62% 0.594 0.14
Unlimited Undo 7209 35.23% 32.93 1.169 80.15% 0.084 -0.328
Using Tokens but Not Events 9694 32.91% 27.39 -0.623 83.26% 0.157 0.1099

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8881 22.34 10.28%
II 20663 30.75 63.89%
III 24727 34.26 90.0%
IV 14692 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.303 Win Model: -0.917
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 47409 45.64% 27.58 72.65%
2 13289 48.64% 30.73 74.38%
3 4455 42.95% 31.94 78.36%
4 3810 33.4% 31.59 85.04%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 609
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 16998
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9600
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11337
Lose: Invader deck ran out 730
Lose: Adversary condition 2212
Win: Sacrifice victory 203
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14156
Lose: Spirit destroyed 805

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)