Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 199 45.73% 29.32 1.155 76.38% -0.301 -0.0116
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 693 48.12% 33.11 3.055 73.02% -0.533 -0.1192
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 444 57.11% 36.66 4.899 61.49% -1.087 -0.2035
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 231 56.52% 36.94 5.065 54.98% -1.554 -0.3121
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 148 72.11% 37.47 5.86 43.92% -1.564 -0.0675
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 47 61.7% 37.53 5.763 38.3% -2.051 -0.1124
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 83 56.63% 42.72 8.154 39.76% -2.389 -0.3462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1094 54.2% 24.41 -0.787 73.67% -0.077 -0.0362
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4401 43.87% 31.57 2.425 80.62% 0.093 0.0751
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3561 49.37% 38.29 5.997 74.89% -0.2 -0.1865
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2416 54.88% 43.09 8.526 69.62% -0.398 -0.1143
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1547 53.15% 46.13 9.941 70.14% -0.441 -0.082
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 868 64.35% 49.37 11.826 62.21% -0.591 0.2336
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 735 70.94% 46.34 10.131 47.89% -1.322 -0.0831
The Kingdom of England 0 1 664 47.89% 22.63 -1.931 63.4% -1.032 -0.7019
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2538 46.76% 32.84 3.048 69.15% -0.766 -0.2493
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1498 58.63% 31.68 2.759 55.01% -1.254 -0.2806
The Kingdom of England 3 6 683 60.79% 35.31 4.549 46.85% -1.791 -0.2111
The Kingdom of England 4 7 370 62.33% 36.31 4.932 41.62% -2.15 -0.6551
The Kingdom of England 5 9 143 68.31% 38.15 5.863 30.07% -2.608 -0.5379
The Kingdom of England 6 11 293 56.7% 48.28 10.472 44.37% -2.339 -0.0949
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 542 59.23% 25.42 -0.429 61.07% -0.878 -0.3666
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1417 57.85% 30.29 1.884 60.97% -0.927 -0.0243
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 725 47.1% 32.95 2.892 41.38% -2.796 -0.6547
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 504 56.46% 34.5 3.92 30.95% -3.092 -0.8931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 290 58.28% 38.37 5.869 33.45% -2.879 -0.7188
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 164 61.96% 38.99 6.199 28.66% -3.017 -1.2
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 532 60.9% 47.11 10.03 35.71% -2.857 -0.7656
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 659 59.48% 23.21 -1.348 71.32% -0.079 0.0099
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2145 47.85% 29.58 1.36 75.99% -0.173 -0.1382
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1659 55.52% 31.29 2.429 70.58% -0.302 -0.0649
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1089 64.8% 35.65 4.843 61.62% -0.626 -0.3354
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 668 73.95% 36.3 5.339 55.99% -0.716 0.0649
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 278 70.86% 38.87 6.456 52.52% -0.953 0.2155
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 663 79.15% 40.2 7.232 49.32% -0.978 0.1444
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 123 53.66% 26.32 0.007 78.86% 0.067 -0.022
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 445 54.18% 31.34 2.239 66.29% -0.826 -0.0468
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 255 48.24% 38.37 5.614 77.25% -0.221 0.1905
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 171 69.01% 34.92 4.421 47.95% -1.463 -0.2189
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 90 64.44% 42.03 7.766 54.44% -1.145 -0.0374
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 55 83.64% 38.38 6.282 30.91% -1.896 0.0879
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 72 76.39% 51.68 12.763 43.06% -1.427 0.4454

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 51766 44.61 27.61 -0.561 73.54% -0.649 -0.563
1 Thematic 2929 57.08 26.52 -0.632 59.58% -1.03 -0.753
2 Archipelago 8 37.5 26.38 -0.554 75.0% -0.079 -0.0718
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9140 47.59 30.76 0.647 75.34% -0.084 -0.0583
2 Coastline 1584 45.04 30.75 0.593 77.21% -0.075 -0.1
2 Fragment 314 47.6 27.32 -1.359 70.38% -0.667 -0.4448
2 Heart 288 48.6 27.79 -0.448 76.04% -0.261 -0.1613
2 Opposite Shores 2625 41.85 29.4 -0.247 78.63% -0.133 -0.0679
2 Thematic 1245 57.28 32.56 1.145 64.66% -0.385 -0.4516
2 Top to Top 440 45.85 31.87 0.98 78.18% 0.049 -0.0201
3 Coastline 57 42.11 36.19 2.649 80.7% 0.756 0.6056
3 Other 356 42.42 30.64 0.205 81.74% -0.099 0.0734
3 Round (Default) 4495 42.24 31.91 0.753 79.02% 0.24 0.2011
3 Sunrise 25 52.0 31.84 0.874 84.0% 0.438 0.1776
3 Thematic 180 52.78 34.06 0.836 62.78% -0.501 -0.8668
4 Archipelago 7 42.86 44.43 5.172 71.43% 0.199 0.7468
4 Coastline 21 14.29 32.95 0.623 90.48% -0.265 -0.1456
4 Leaf 17 47.06 29.94 -0.281 82.35% 0.354 0.4257
4 Other 246 38.21 35.11 1.832 84.96% 0.31 0.2407
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0 43.8 4.59 100.0% 0.376 -0.4262
4 Snake 1 100.0 20.0 -7.538 0.0% -0.273 -0.1473
4 Thematic 578 40.63 34.35 0.877 75.09% 0.279 -0.7179
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3602 32.29 30.88 0.158 86.48% 0.567 0.5756
5 Other 149 26.17 31.72 0.599 96.64% 1.056 0.5953
5 Thematic 36 16.67 32.42 0.635 97.22% 0.592 -1.8
6 Thematic 1 0.0 37.0 -0.3 100.0% 0.001 -0.203

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3183 22.4 -4.498 45.49% -3.209 -1.14
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2589 23.51 -3.98 46.93% -3.206 -1.2936
All Things Weaken 1040 20.85 -5.114 43.56% -3.331 -1.1715
Back Against the Wall 2480 22.83 -4.296 45.16% -3.277 -1.19
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2807 20.17 -5.729 43.53% -3.3 -1.0783
Downward Spiral 5079 20.85 -4.766 53.0% -2.911 -0.8894
Erosion of Will 3074 21.1 -5.107 42.84% -3.356 -1.1485
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 401 30.99 -0.093 87.28% -1.01 -0.3313
Memory Fades to Dust 4839 20.67 -4.959 50.36% -3.086 -0.8709
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1058 21.08 -4.909 48.58% -3.111 -1.0901
Promising Farmlands 2865 20.89 -5.203 45.62% -3.216 -1.0084
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 205 32.81 0.563 90.73% -0.697 -0.2857
Thriving Communities 1089 20.97 -5.07 46.37% -3.208 -1.1204
Tipping Point 1584 21.71 -4.816 45.08% -3.166 -0.941
Unnatural Proliferation 1171 23.93 -3.666 47.91% -3.056 -0.9747
Untended Land Crumbles 1092 22.17 -4.452 50.64% -3.038 -0.9361

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18520 44.28% 28.89 -0.131 75.9% 0.822 0.1347
B 18823 44.6% 29.47 0.205 75.61% 0.835 0.0518
C 21743 42.46% 29.44 0.357 77.07% 0.943 -0.0693
D 20115 44.03% 29.15 0.178 76.63% 0.938 0.1608
E 5788 40.98% 29.83 0.267 78.78% 0.931 0.0365
F 9225 40.75% 29.77 0.136 77.79% 0.828 -0.0131
G 8613 41.57% 29.49 0.017 77.46% 0.793 -0.0389
H 9174 39.94% 30.1 0.331 78.73% 0.885 0.0464
East 1829 54.36% 31.93 0.629 64.57% 0.759 0.1826
Northeast 1864 53.74% 32.42 1.087 64.7% 0.803 0.2789
Northwest 1368 54.79% 32.39 0.755 64.04% 0.792 0.1965
Southeast 906 36.91% 28.14 0.139 78.15% 1.171 0.5419
Southwest 595 42.86% 27.98 -0.568 75.29% 0.964 0.7651
West 1598 53.23% 31.31 0.267 63.33% 0.518 0.1913

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2920 0.0% 24.37 -2.925 74.97% -2.723 -0.6704
Not Using Events or Tokens 3587 54.77% 22.08 -2.52 68.19% -0.321 -0.1058
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6360 22.14% 34.56 2.271 87.03% 0.461 -0.2257
Start of Game Growth 9080 19.91% 34.07 2.161 88.43% 0.604 0.1349
Unlimited Undo 8633 33.46% 32.25 0.933 81.29% 0.087 -0.3356
Using Tokens but Not Events 11760 31.73% 28.08 -0.293 83.67% 0.177 0.1265

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10121 22.37 10.43%
II 24086 30.88 64.38%
III 28857 34.39 90.0%
IV 17051 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.291 Win Model: -0.95
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 54997 45.27% 27.58 72.86%
2 15571 47.15% 30.59 75.26%
3 5049 42.58% 32.02 78.47%
4 4498 33.15% 31.41 85.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 751
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20701
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11902
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13688
Lose: Invader deck ran out 877
Lose: Adversary condition 2535
Win: Sacrifice victory 230
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16220
Lose: Spirit destroyed 898

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)