Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 376 46.81% 31.83 1.747 74.47% -0.09 0.1208
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 973 49.74% 32.87 1.928 70.4% -0.446 -0.0118
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 611 58.62% 36.18 2.975 59.9% -1.036 -0.3036
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 331 55.62% 37.03 4.501 54.98% -0.532 0.5261
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 220 71.23% 39.21 5.169 46.36% -0.924 0.3697
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 73 60.27% 39.3 6.447 42.47% -0.547 1.0473
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 118 56.78% 43.48 3.204 40.68% -0.456 1.4845
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1031 50.73% 25.82 -0.001 74.3% -0.13 -0.0327
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4139 41.65% 31.88 2.76 81.15% 0.117 0.0256
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3604 47.94% 38.56 5.759 76.03% 0.11 0.0474
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2615 53.08% 43.48 8.038 71.28% -0.128 0.1336
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1690 52.31% 45.76 6.182 69.88% -0.76 -0.6971
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 941 62.37% 48.95 7.538 61.64% -0.898 -0.4542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 767 70.18% 44.78 2.748 45.76% -1.699 -0.4159
The Kingdom of England 0 1 707 47.23% 25.26 -1.974 64.78% -0.657 -0.4811
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2443 44.81% 33.13 1.361 69.91% -0.654 -0.44
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1524 57.91% 31.34 0.215 54.66% -1.187 -0.4333
The Kingdom of England 3 6 740 58.15% 35.32 1.203 47.16% -1.705 -0.544
The Kingdom of England 4 7 408 53.92% 37.64 5.466 45.1% -1.01 0.0053
The Kingdom of England 5 9 176 66.86% 38.3 12.378 31.25% -0.195 1.3474
The Kingdom of England 6 11 303 62.75% 43.19 -0.832 37.62% -1.873 0.146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 572 55.59% 27.03 -1.081 60.14% -0.778 -0.4242
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1346 57.6% 30.77 1.302 62.63% -0.688 0.2816
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 755 43.68% 33.03 3.539 40.26% -1.425 -0.3367
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 484 50.41% 34.42 2.966 30.58% -1.636 -0.2483
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 275 56.57% 39.3 5.376 36.0% -1.13 0.3034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 165 59.76% 39.52 -11.062 30.91% -1.566 -0.5932
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 542 60.89% 46.69 5.786 35.42% -1.98 -0.6241
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 94 40.43% 34.01 1.142 73.4% 0.134 0.0474
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 218 35.48% 35.35 2.663 74.31% -0.465 -0.0316
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 167 35.37% 36.86 3.586 70.06% -0.467 -0.0631
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 133 38.93% 44.78 9.719 68.42% 0.019 0.3508
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 85 40.0% 44.8 7.825 64.71% -0.848 -0.2843
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 50 42.0% 46.32 10.887 60.0% -0.352 0.3875
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 134 65.67% 48.68 5.595 54.48% -1.537 -0.2602
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 734 55.99% 24.96 -2.177 71.53% -0.464 -0.3143
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2113 45.37% 30.19 2.833 77.9% 0.208 0.1974
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1764 54.46% 31.44 3.754 71.77% 0.052 0.2839
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1198 65.41% 35.54 2.807 62.94% -0.533 -0.1875
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 707 74.08% 35.26 3.658 54.74% -0.606 0.011
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 275 67.27% 38.4 5.893 53.82% -0.001 0.9466
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 671 82.12% 38.12 2.112 46.8% -0.983 -0.1777
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 309 50.16% 32.39 2.094 74.43% -0.223 -0.1812
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 672 53.58% 31.73 3.51 66.96% -0.052 0.5514
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 395 47.59% 37.68 3.474 73.92% -0.44 -0.1473
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 269 66.54% 36.8 1.269 51.3% -1.268 -0.1623
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 143 59.15% 46.76 15.164 62.94% -0.13 0.9002
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 96 76.04% 40.22 18.643 33.33% 0.007 1.4393
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 106 74.53% 52.4 19.045 44.34% -0.702 1.2543

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 55433 42.64 28.16 74.33% -0.511 -0.301 -0.464
1 Thematic 3074 53.67 26.36 63.08% -0.914 -0.3151 -0.594
2 Archipelago 27 37.04 31.37 81.48% 0.639 0.9958
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9591 45.98 30.4 75.63% -0.372 -0.2124 0.015
2 Coastline 1772 40.29 31.18 78.61% -0.604 -0.5435 0.469
2 Fragment 350 47.13 27.87 72.29% -0.133 -0.1962 -0.637
2 Heart 405 44.25 27.68 78.52% 0.74 0.5022 -0.257
2 Opposite Shores 2798 35.82 29.69 81.7% 0.284 0.4172 -0.609
2 Thematic 1443 53.85 32.42 66.6% -0.524 0.1126 0.359
2 Top to Top 480 40.76 31.04 80.83% 0.342 0.3826 0.525
3 Archipelago 37 32.43 30.59 94.59% -0.345 -1.4316
3 Coastline 150 24.16 30.21 92.0% 0.414 -0.0839 0.218
3 Other 650 37.54 28.7 85.23% 0.654 0.7641 -0.355
3 Round (Default) 4753 39.33 32.38 80.1% 0.153 0.1115 0.21
3 Sunrise 27 55.56 23.37 74.07%
3 Thematic 287 41.46 30.31 76.31% 0.752 0.7877 0.463
4 Archipelago 37 29.73 32.59 89.19%
4 Coastline 113 8.85 28.38 95.58% 0.255 0.377
4 Leaf 24 45.83 25.83 79.17% -0.091 -0.4659
4 Other 474 32.07 30.67 86.29% 0.224 -0.6255 0.394
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 554 37.0 32.41 78.34% -0.575 -0.5924 -0.304
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3306 31.75 30.04 86.57% -0.135 -0.3218 0.458
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 34.38 87.5% 0.238 -0.9876
5 Coastline 50 6.0 27.22 96.0%
5 Other 595 18.82 28.94 94.62% 0.263 -0.2449 -0.391
5 Thematic 105 28.57 27.97 88.57% 0.158 -0.172
6 Archipelago 8 25.0 33.88 100.0% -0.63 -0.9346
6 Coastline 2 50.0 27.0 100.0% 0.145 -0.4991
6 Other 103 29.41 26.23 89.32% 0.114 -0.2804 -0.28
6 Star 26 46.15 30.04 84.62% -0.266 0.2092 -0.1
6 Thematic 92 42.39 27.36 79.35% -0.071 0.3279
6 Two Centers (Default) 183 24.04 32.45 89.62% -0.282 -0.2388 0.34
7 Other 17 35.29 24.0 94.12% -0.569 -1.3419 0.225

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2880 22.64 46.32% -1.235 -0.9637 -0.937
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2415 23.74 47.83% -1.352 -1.3136 -0.775
All Things Weaken 1651 21.43 44.09% -1.657 -1.1963 -0.579
Attenuated Essence 23 19.83 47.83% -0.978 -0.772 -0.272
Back Against the Wall 2298 23.1 46.21% -1.238 -1.0757 -1.118
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 29 17.97 48.28% -1.2 -0.7858 -0.404
Burn Brightest Before the End 33 23.55 60.61% -0.971 -0.6664
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2786 20.02 43.97% -1.852 -1.3249 -1.211
Downward Spiral 4476 21.47 53.28% -1.15 -0.7977 -0.93
Erosion of Will 2905 21.46 43.72% -1.727 -1.3185 -0.971
Intensifying Exploitation 38 18.11 50.0% -1.012 -0.6249 -0.016
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 624 30.98 87.98% 0.399 -0.1262 -0.625
Memory Fades to Dust 4474 21.09 50.96% -1.186 -0.7044 -0.786
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1672 21.39 48.33% -1.628 -1.3234 -1.046
Promising Farmlands 2786 21.19 46.91% -1.415 -0.8293 -0.892
Shattered Fragments of Power 33 24.36 36.36% -1.42 -1.2416 -0.664
Slow Dissolution of Will 50 19.46 50.0% -1.269 -0.7354 -0.604
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 326 32.12 90.18% 0.499 -0.1788 -0.028
The Border of Life and Death 10 20.8 60.0% -0.504 -0.6334 -0.305
Thriving Communities 1774 21.34 48.03% -1.653 -1.1598 -0.398
Thriving Crops 24 25.75 75.0% -0.158 -0.0697
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.566
Unnatural Proliferation 1756 24.63 49.43% -1.109 -0.8118 -0.535
Untended Land Crumbles 1743 21.93 50.37% -1.065 -0.7072 -0.928

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 17637 41.17% 28.99 77.12% -0.351 0.489 -0.141
B 17819 41.75% 29.72 77.22% -0.275 0.5036 0.428
C 21286 39.03% 29.55 78.99% -0.037 0.6169 0.258
D 19174 40.68% 29.19 78.04% -0.316 0.4833 0.05
E 10528 37.7% 29.24 80.18% 0.008 0.6364 0.257
F 13273 39.82% 29.47 78.2% -0.28 0.4394 0.386
G 12437 40.51% 29.25 77.95% -0.16 0.5818 0.114
H 13483 38.87% 29.64 79.43% 0.016 0.664 0.36
East 3565 49.38% 30.56 67.66% 0.344 0.9482 -0.58
Northeast 1838 51.74% 32.49 66.16% -0.798 0.0827 0.042
Northwest 1311 51.62% 32.32 66.36% 0.016 0.689 -0.507
Southeast 1289 36.1% 28.8 78.36% 0.276 0.9122 0.243
Southwest 866 40.99% 28.32 76.33% -0.525 0.6394 0.527
West 2714 50.87% 30.18 66.84% -0.955 0.0089 0.144

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2578 0.0% 24.43 74.71% -1.027 -0.1434 -0.492
Not Using Events or Tokens 3107 52.85% 23.13 69.07% -0.476 -0.1445 -0.019
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6090 20.06% 34.69 87.72% 0.575 0.0403 0.742
Start of Game Growth 9352 18.83% 33.79 88.56% -0.005 -0.3349 0.689
Unlimited Undo 8685 32.02% 31.6 82.07% -0.28 -0.3023 0.066
Using Tokens but Not Events 13806 27.27% 29.28 84.85% 0.432 0.3785 0.452

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10532 21.03 9.5%
II 25420 31.04 65.63%
III 32041 34.74 90.7%
IV 19029 38.02 99.99%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.096 Win Model: 0.085
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 59027 43.22% 28.1 73.82%
2 16810 44.22% 30.41 76.44%
3 5781 38.63% 31.85 80.66%
4 4510 31.17% 30.25 86.08%
5 550 17.09% 27.36 92.18%
6 344 33.24% 29.58 86.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 997
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28945
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16641
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 18937
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 533
Lose: Invader deck ran out 912
Lose: Adversary condition 2888
Win: Sacrifice victory 255
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16126
Lose: Spirit destroyed 788

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)