Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 482 47.18% 30.8 1.14 69.5% -0.384 -0.0384
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1127 48.0% 31.9 -0.602 67.88% -0.942 -0.6214
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 714 57.24% 35.45 6.921 58.68% 0.161 1.0151
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 405 55.47% 36.23 6.945 53.58% -0.259 0.6946
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 260 68.99% 37.97 -0.547 43.85% -1.337 -0.001
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 94 58.51% 40.18 0.0 44.68%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 135 55.56% 41.01 -4.275 37.78% -0.674 1.3132
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1224 50.0% 25.6 0.525 71.65% -0.138 0.0984
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4823 39.85% 30.88 2.077 78.33% -0.07 0.0224
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4248 47.06% 37.45 6.659 73.68% 0.229 0.3191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3130 52.39% 42.34 5.835 69.49% -0.5 -0.3086
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1993 52.37% 44.67 5.739 68.09% -0.715 -0.4011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1129 61.1% 47.45 8.967 59.52% -0.47 0.0168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 908 70.09% 43.96 5.458 45.37% -0.787 0.5308
The Kingdom of England 0 1 851 45.88% 25.57 -0.489 62.51% -0.829 -0.3595
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2767 44.51% 32.13 0.625 67.62% -0.67 -0.3498
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1779 56.75% 30.71 2.016 53.68% -0.425 0.2093
The Kingdom of England 3 6 900 56.31% 34.91 3.16 47.0% -1.189 -0.0666
The Kingdom of England 4 7 502 52.02% 37.43 7.812 45.22% -0.708 0.4064
The Kingdom of England 5 9 212 66.35% 35.95 3.112 29.72% -1.193 0.3278
The Kingdom of England 6 11 371 60.38% 39.77 5.592 33.96% -0.839 1.1482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 658 53.07% 27.22 1.63 58.97% -0.783 -0.3316
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1557 56.73% 29.97 1.065 60.57% -0.488 0.1799
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 918 42.86% 32.73 3.382 39.43% -0.987 -0.0204
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 582 49.13% 34.84 5.336 32.65% -1.189 0.0848
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 330 51.38% 40.41 7.831 38.79% -0.689 0.602
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 189 59.04% 39.11 3.514 30.69% -0.979 -0.1024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 629 60.1% 45.35 10.434 34.66% -1.074 0.3776
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 210 41.41% 31.19 4.095 65.24% 0.01 0.24
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 423 37.68% 31.2 -0.569 64.3% -0.956 -0.5349
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 378 32.44% 36.69 6.793 70.63% 0.153 0.5571
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 344 34.71% 44.51 11.372 68.9% -0.064 0.3082
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 271 44.61% 43.76 10.047 63.84% -0.163 0.4739
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 140 51.43% 46.32 3.801 62.14% -1.343 -0.8061
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 300 65.67% 47.23 10.066 53.0% -0.513 0.5612
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 884 56.1% 25.43 -2.805 70.7% -0.415 -0.116
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2422 44.11% 29.52 0.676 76.18% -0.181 -0.1085
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2082 53.59% 30.86 1.368 70.12% -0.248 -0.1338
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1447 62.53% 34.8 3.233 61.78% -0.58 -0.2386
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 881 70.58% 34.87 5.482 54.48% -0.395 0.2352
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 328 67.58% 36.43 -3.086 51.22% -1.384 -0.2892
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 822 79.56% 37.09 2.837 46.72% -0.944 0.0215
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 402 48.26% 31.51 2.71 70.15% -0.265 -0.1666
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 818 53.06% 30.04 0.187 62.96% -0.783 0.1014
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 494 49.39% 36.09 1.705 70.45% -0.476 0.0327
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 336 66.67% 35.6 9.454 49.7% 0.138 1.0897
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 192 59.16% 45.69 16.435 60.42% 0.509 1.3658
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 111 75.68% 39.25 25.574 32.43% 0.312 1.691
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 125 72.8% 49.88 6.843 42.4% -0.634 1.1253

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 66718 41.66 27.49 72.7% -0.211 0.1409 -0.267
1 Thematic 3535 51.69 25.94 63.39% 0.156 0.6502 -0.515
2 Archipelago 51 29.41 33.02 88.24% 0.017 0.5184 -0.565
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11387 45.78 30.04 74.22% 0.105 0.3795 0.174
2 Coastline 2134 40.52 30.23 77.37% 0.166 0.2101 0.681
2 Fragment 428 46.48 27.18 71.5% 0.437 0.1951 -0.706
2 Heart 502 40.44 26.97 77.89% 0.148 0.0078 -0.274
2 Opposite Shores 3282 35.5 29.37 80.47% 0.26 0.3306 -0.975
2 Thematic 1812 53.87 31.08 62.64% -0.443 -0.1931 0.485
2 Top to Top 577 41.71 30.88 77.82% 0.316 0.3844 0.437
3 Archipelago 52 32.69 31.17 94.23% -0.086 -0.8341
3 Coastline 219 21.56 28.42 89.5% 0.639 0.0328 0.549
3 Other 848 37.26 27.09 82.43% 0.169 -0.3787 -0.624
3 Round (Default) 6018 38.82 32.91 78.7% 0.029 -0.0927 0.273
3 Sunrise 34 52.94 22.26 70.59%
3 Thematic 337 43.62 29.38 72.4% 0.964 0.432 1.001
4 Archipelago 40 32.5 32.0 87.5% 0.169 0.7215
4 Coastline 173 9.25 27.45 94.22% -0.012 -0.5426
4 Leaf 32 50.0 26.06 78.13% -0.196 -0.6108
4 Other 585 31.62 29.76 85.81% 0.568 0.4759 0.475
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 632 37.03 30.63 74.37% -0.39 -0.3948 -0.417
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3881 30.35 29.18 84.02% -0.051 0.1422 0.33
5 Archipelago 11 27.27 30.55 81.82% 0.143 -0.0098
5 Coastline 79 7.59 25.48 89.87%
5 Other 842 18.76 28.04 90.97% -0.423 -0.8233 0.239
5 Thematic 110 30.0 27.73 87.27% -0.02 -0.5855 -0.195
6 Archipelago 11 27.27 33.73 100.0% 0.024 -0.6945
6 Coastline 7 14.29 24.71 71.43% -0.528 -1.3819
6 Other 192 29.32 24.35 83.33% 0.158 0.7525 -0.185
6 Star 43 46.51 26.58 76.74% -0.114 0.3276 0.113
6 Thematic 128 35.16 24.29 67.19% -0.428 -0.3043 -0.26
6 Two Centers (Default) 392 23.21 27.7 80.1% 0.017 -0.1389 0.5
7 Other 31 29.03 22.77 80.65% -0.201 -1.4132 -0.661

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3275 22.33 45.56% -0.956 -0.8151 -0.76
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2731 23.63 47.31% -1.046 -1.1408 -0.7
All Things Weaken 1932 21.11 42.96% -1.865 -1.5502 -0.327
Attenuated Essence 203 22.06 47.29% -1.145 -1.1192 -1.171
Back Against the Wall 2617 23.16 46.27% -1.051 -1.0064 -0.764
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 182 20.27 43.41% -0.62 -0.3931 -0.42
Burn Brightest Before the End 180 23.7 53.89% -0.336 -0.1467 -0.169
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3154 19.79 43.98% -1.316 -0.9063 -1.1
Downward Spiral 5193 21.22 52.47% -0.657 -0.6058 -0.707
Erosion of Will 3284 21.18 43.64% -0.963 -0.6984 -0.869
Intensifying Exploitation 240 21.67 50.83% -0.684 -0.373 -0.255
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 745 30.42 85.77% -0.635 -1.1131 -0.259
Memory Fades to Dust 5174 20.73 49.57% -1.285 -1.0645 -0.559
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2039 21.83 48.65% -0.806 -0.6194 -0.539
Promising Farmlands 3141 20.89 46.13% -1.019 -0.723 -0.653
Shattered Fragments of Power 148 23.72 41.22% -1.318 -1.1048 -0.754
Slow Dissolution of Will 209 18.03 40.67% -0.808 -0.4285 -1.3
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 399 31.28 86.72% 0.531 -0.2304 -0.253
The Border of Life and Death 38 21.5 65.79% -0.307 -0.8588 -0.317
Thriving Communities 2130 21.16 47.89% -1.613 -1.3 -0.564
Thriving Crops 90 25.38 71.11% -0.649 -0.5984 -0.702
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.53
Unnatural Proliferation 2127 24.48 49.18% -1.195 -1.0118 -0.384
Untended Land Crumbles 2026 22.06 49.56% -0.884 -0.5215 -0.659

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 21453 40.24% 28.42 75.46% -0.154 0.6975 -0.327
B 21670 41.04% 29.21 75.3% -0.093 0.7273 0.259
C 25352 38.27% 29.0 77.22% 0.146 0.8261 0.097
D 23394 39.58% 28.63 76.4% -0.111 0.7159 0.01
E 14511 35.24% 28.35 79.08% 0.236 0.9231 0.182
F 16010 39.22% 28.99 76.36% -0.087 0.7158 0.275
G 15091 39.88% 28.74 76.13% -0.157 0.6977 0.025
H 16271 38.0% 29.23 77.86% 0.005 0.7701 0.076
East 4375 48.25% 29.31 65.53% -1.445 -0.5695 -0.474
Northeast 2228 50.16% 31.24 64.68% 0.771 1.6161 0.088
Northwest 1594 50.35% 30.91 64.05% -0.33 0.5516 -0.693
Southeast 1619 35.29% 27.54 75.73% 0.133 0.979 -0.186
Southwest 1043 40.17% 26.77 71.81% -0.782 0.4955 0.083
West 3294 50.53% 28.78 63.33% -0.41 0.6244 -0.156

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3241 0.0% 24.56 73.31% -0.262 0.4595 -0.434
Not Using Events or Tokens 3969 51.33% 21.7 64.75% -0.538 -0.1057 -0.136
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7229 19.0% 34.95 86.79% 0.023 -0.5855 0.229
Start of Game Growth 11108 17.97% 33.61 87.48% 1.028 0.4048 0.607
Unlimited Undo 10480 31.35% 31.51 80.64% -0.759 -0.7529 0.078
Using Tokens but Not Events 17763 26.01% 29.41 84.11% 0.566 0.5825 0.229

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14412 15.54 8.34%
II 30352 30.46 65.16%
III 37999 34.79 90.64%
IV 22440 38.44 99.93%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.083 Win Model: 0.078
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 70933 42.15% 27.44 72.31%
2 20103 44.05% 29.92 74.83%
3 7344 38.16% 31.98 79.03%
4 5332 30.14% 29.3 83.72%
5 829 17.37% 26.45 87.82%
6 662 28.59% 26.09 77.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1198
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 34300
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19725
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22317
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3340
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1090
Lose: Adversary condition 3371
Win: Sacrifice victory 307
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18622
Lose: Spirit destroyed 933

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-11 06:22:48 (Pacific Time)