Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 187 44.92% 29.8 1.356 78.07% -0.203 0.0746
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 659 48.78% 33.05 3.01 72.99% -0.521 -0.1269
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 419 56.46% 37.03 5.025 62.77% -1.032 -0.1538
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 219 56.42% 36.95 5.017 54.79% -1.556 -0.3049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 133 72.73% 36.62 5.402 41.35% -1.692 -0.1708
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 41 63.41% 35.83 4.84 34.15% -2.213 -0.2357
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 77 55.84% 43.49 8.528 41.56% -2.27 -0.2206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1053 53.94% 24.49 -0.761 74.07% -0.056 -0.0154
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4248 43.97% 31.57 2.417 80.58% 0.098 0.0685
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3442 49.27% 38.31 5.991 74.93% -0.196 -0.1916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2335 54.6% 43.12 8.518 69.68% -0.402 -0.1133
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1501 53.38% 46.08 9.908 69.95% -0.444 -0.0763
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 826 63.99% 49.82 12.029 63.2% -0.538 0.2915
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 705 71.26% 46.27 10.075 47.8% -1.319 -0.0781
The Kingdom of England 0 1 640 47.81% 22.65 -1.909 63.75% -0.997 -0.6644
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2397 47.26% 32.72 2.981 68.88% -0.765 -0.2614
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1401 59.56% 31.38 2.596 54.03% -1.285 -0.3172
The Kingdom of England 3 6 643 61.62% 35.28 4.519 46.81% -1.751 -0.1728
The Kingdom of England 4 7 352 62.68% 36.61 5.039 42.05% -2.104 -0.6059
The Kingdom of England 5 9 138 67.88% 38.14 5.786 29.71% -2.662 -0.595
The Kingdom of England 6 11 281 55.91% 48.55 10.544 44.84% -2.353 -0.0984
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 526 59.13% 25.46 -0.402 61.03% -0.863 -0.3481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1382 58.01% 30.31 1.88 61.07% -0.913 -0.0168
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 701 46.57% 33.12 2.932 41.8% -2.783 -0.6464
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 485 56.2% 34.68 3.988 31.34% -3.057 -0.8715
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 279 58.42% 38.27 5.847 33.33% -2.858 -0.7115
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 160 61.64% 39.11 6.216 28.75% -3.016 -1.1955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 512 61.13% 47.54 10.227 36.52% -2.781 -0.6738
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 636 59.43% 23.24 -1.338 71.54% -0.059 0.0254
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2068 47.6% 29.68 1.38 76.31% -0.164 -0.1429
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1594 55.15% 31.39 2.439 70.7% -0.309 -0.0776
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1053 64.07% 36.04 4.989 62.68% -0.589 -0.3032
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 649 73.65% 36.33 5.335 56.09% -0.716 0.0611
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 272 70.59% 39.02 6.506 52.94% -0.932 0.2255
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 651 79.23% 40.17 7.191 49.31% -0.974 0.157
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 117 53.85% 26.41 0.039 79.49% 0.106 0.0001
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 412 53.66% 31.56 2.288 66.75% -0.831 -0.088
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 235 45.96% 38.46 5.546 77.45% -0.287 0.1449
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 159 67.92% 34.91 4.353 47.8% -1.509 -0.2602
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 82 63.41% 43.28 8.283 57.32% -1.008 0.1189
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 52 84.62% 39.17 6.63 32.69% -1.733 0.2856
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 71 76.06% 52.04 12.902 43.66% -1.408 0.4974

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 49327 44.66 27.61 -0.578 73.5% -0.644 -0.3109
1 Thematic 2810 56.96 26.74 -0.565 59.93% -0.987 -0.489
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8874 47.85 30.79 0.649 75.3% -0.096 0.1045
2 Coastline 1528 45.05 30.75 0.572 77.16% -0.1 0.055
2 Fragment 307 48.04 27.14 -1.465 70.03% -0.697 -0.3011
2 Heart 258 47.66 27.69 -0.527 77.13% -0.274 0.0482
2 Opposite Shores 2381 44.17 29.59 -0.156 77.45% -0.142 0.0867
2 Thematic 1204 56.91 32.64 1.141 64.7% -0.373 -0.3116
2 Top to Top 427 45.37 31.85 0.914 78.45% 0.024 0.156
3 Coastline 57 42.11 36.19 2.637 80.7% 0.715 0.6773
3 Other 337 42.43 30.63 0.175 81.9% -0.111 0.3088
3 Round (Default) 4317 42.29 31.92 0.754 79.04% 0.206 0.2617
3 Sunrise 25 52.0 31.84 0.842 84.0% 0.406 0.2122
3 Thematic 175 52.57 34.11 0.803 62.86% -0.491 -0.8208
4 Coastline 21 14.29 32.95 0.596 90.48% -0.312 -0.1868
4 Leaf 16 43.75 30.0 -0.421 81.25% 0.196 0.2421
4 Other 236 38.56 34.96 1.781 85.17% 0.288 0.4003
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0 43.8 4.5 100.0% 0.358 -0.4237
4 Snake 1 100.0 20.0 -7.539 0.0% -0.281 -0.1266
4 Thematic 552 41.82 34.43 0.864 74.46% 0.302 -0.7217
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3438 32.47 30.83 0.13 86.21% 0.491 0.5258
5 Other 144 25.69 32.07 0.702 97.92% 1.29 1.035
5 Thematic 32 15.63 32.78 0.871 100.0% 0.883 -2.0604

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3079 22.44 -4.494 45.73% -3.203 -1.1295
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2502 23.46 -4.013 46.84% -3.21 -1.291
All Things Weaken 951 21.01 -5.069 43.32% -3.336 -1.1768
Back Against the Wall 2383 22.88 -4.289 45.32% -3.265 -1.1712
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2702 20.28 -5.7 43.78% -3.291 -1.0664
Downward Spiral 4910 20.86 -4.754 53.08% -2.899 -0.8782
Erosion of Will 2968 21.11 -5.116 42.99% -3.351 -1.1421
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 360 31.1 -0.051 87.78% -0.993 -0.3006
Memory Fades to Dust 4652 20.72 -4.938 50.45% -3.074 -0.8552
Power Corrodes the Spirit 980 21.31 -4.831 48.37% -3.101 -1.0797
Promising Farmlands 2755 20.95 -5.187 45.81% -3.206 -0.9913
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 189 33.05 0.62 89.95% -0.798 -0.3867
Thriving Communities 989 21.19 -4.986 46.61% -3.2 -1.1072
Tipping Point 1584 21.71 -4.834 45.08% -3.166 -0.9402
Unnatural Proliferation 1081 24.08 -3.622 48.47% -3.037 -0.9476
Untended Land Crumbles 1009 22.36 -4.401 50.35% -3.038 -0.9325

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 17762 44.63% 28.88 -0.143 75.7% 0.846 -0.266
B 18105 44.59% 29.48 0.199 75.6% 0.858 -0.3498
C 20808 42.7% 29.47 0.366 76.94% 0.97 -0.4691
D 19445 44.17% 29.17 0.181 76.59% 0.967 -0.2351
E 5283 41.35% 29.92 0.276 78.71% 0.954 -0.3583
F 8602 41.03% 29.86 0.157 77.75% 0.861 -0.405
G 8215 41.69% 29.49 -0.008 77.43% 0.816 -0.4405
H 8724 39.95% 30.12 0.329 78.71% 0.911 -0.355
East 1753 54.77% 31.98 0.615 64.29% 0.762 -0.2191
Northeast 1795 53.8% 32.48 1.072 64.57% 0.803 -0.1285
Northwest 1318 55.21% 32.5 0.761 63.73% 0.794 -0.205
Southeast 852 37.96% 28.25 0.152 77.93% 1.166 0.1408
Southwest 576 42.53% 28.18 -0.506 76.22% 1.029 0.4089
West 1546 53.4% 31.39 0.266 63.26% 0.523 -0.2017

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2799 0.0% 24.25 -2.991 74.46% -2.735 -0.6804
Not Using Events or Tokens 3456 54.77% 22.0 -2.559 67.94% -0.33 -0.1119
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6124 22.03% 34.7 2.277 86.97% 0.484 -0.2097
Start of Game Growth 8487 20.3% 34.34 2.248 88.11% 0.592 0.1294
Unlimited Undo 8111 33.69% 32.49 1.005 81.1% 0.091 -0.3297
Using Tokens but Not Events 11052 32.05% 27.94 -0.377 83.52% 0.169 0.1169

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9697 22.34 10.37%
II 22965 30.81 64.21%
III 27539 34.31 90.05%
IV 16271 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.292 Win Model: -0.94
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 52420 45.32% 27.59 72.83%
2 14905 47.66% 30.66 75.03%
3 4857 42.59% 32.02 78.55%
4 4290 33.47% 31.38 84.94%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 701
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19535
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11143
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12911
Lose: Invader deck ran out 835
Lose: Adversary condition 2413
Win: Sacrifice victory 219
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15536
Lose: Spirit destroyed 866

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)