Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 439 45.33% 30.83 -3.425 70.16% -1.458 -1.0775
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1082 48.06% 32.24 1.164 68.76% -0.484 -0.2065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 690 57.99% 35.44 5.199 58.55% -0.407 0.3526
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 388 56.48% 36.03 3.206 53.09% -0.909 0.2101
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 247 69.51% 38.45 2.128 44.94% -1.29 0.0667
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 91 58.24% 40.98 17.466 46.15% 0.498 1.7934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 126 54.76% 41.79 -8.201 38.89% -1.867 0.082
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1156 50.09% 25.59 -0.728 72.75% -0.252 -0.0454
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4624 40.11% 31.1 1.776 79.09% -0.173 -0.163
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4027 47.55% 37.62 2.528 74.07% -0.41 -0.3826
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2972 52.59% 42.76 6.047 70.29% -0.344 -0.0563
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1908 52.15% 45.01 6.841 68.66% -0.488 -0.1907
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1085 61.46% 47.84 6.73 59.91% -0.834 -0.2307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 863 69.72% 43.85 6.182 44.96% -0.953 0.4405
The Kingdom of England 0 1 792 46.08% 25.35 0.76 63.38% -0.504 -0.1805
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2678 44.65% 32.42 0.984 68.26% -0.563 -0.2677
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1697 56.96% 30.79 2.336 53.8% -0.541 0.1827
The Kingdom of England 3 6 835 56.68% 34.99 3.252 46.83% -1.228 0.0079
The Kingdom of England 4 7 470 52.34% 36.96 5.338 44.47% -1.032 0.1486
The Kingdom of England 5 9 202 66.67% 36.24 -3.713 29.7% -1.479 0.0949
The Kingdom of England 6 11 360 60.85% 40.02 -2.547 34.44% -2.387 -0.4459
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 631 53.57% 26.97 -2.362 59.27% -1.29 -0.8082
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1493 57.02% 30.11 0.505 61.02% -0.616 0.2206
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 843 42.55% 32.75 0.859 39.74% -1.84 -0.8095
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 543 49.72% 34.65 8.537 31.86% -0.832 0.5739
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 310 52.43% 40.06 8.729 37.74% -1.075 0.3462
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 179 58.99% 39.32 -5.422 31.28% -1.542 -0.6946
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 597 60.97% 45.06 -4.433 33.67% -2.279 -0.8927
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 152 41.45% 30.64 -3.399 67.11% -0.81 -0.5242
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 371 37.57% 32.32 3.004 66.85% -0.23 0.2494
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 307 31.91% 36.25 5.899 69.38% -0.08 0.1975
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 265 35.36% 44.08 8.664 67.92% -0.554 -0.1427
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 208 42.31% 43.57 9.945 63.46% -0.363 0.5228
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 101 49.5% 47.52 13.336 63.37% 0.043 0.8525
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 227 68.28% 48.01 12.851 54.63% -0.145 0.8757
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 840 56.19% 25.32 0.866 71.19% 0.022 0.1714
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2305 44.44% 29.69 0.759 76.57% -0.218 -0.0905
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1956 53.79% 31.1 0.949 70.86% -0.312 -0.1133
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1364 63.56% 34.97 4.223 62.02% -0.3 0.1178
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 812 71.52% 34.79 2.562 54.19% -0.7 0.0048
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 302 67.22% 37.83 -0.984 53.31% -0.903 0.0319
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 783 80.97% 37.53 5.337 47.13% -0.364 0.6267
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 363 49.59% 31.97 0.727 72.18% -0.074 0.0248
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 767 53.46% 30.47 -3.259 64.15% -1.398 -0.4497
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 455 47.69% 36.91 3.675 72.53% -0.285 -0.0046
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 318 66.04% 35.39 -2.298 49.37% -1.461 -0.3499
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 177 59.09% 44.86 3.836 59.89% -0.767 0.242
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 107 77.57% 39.07 0.351 31.78% -0.425 1.2417
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 118 73.73% 50.78 10.016 43.22% -0.178 1.6308

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 63229 42.08 27.64 73.05% -0.386 -0.1951 -0.281
1 Thematic 3358 52.55 26.04 62.86% -0.491 0.1541 -0.526
2 Archipelago 45 26.67 32.71 86.67% -0.618
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10804 46.17 30.02 74.5% -0.123 -0.1264 0.156
2 Coastline 2005 40.67 30.44 77.91% -0.037 0.0187 0.755
2 Fragment 387 47.53 27.26 71.06% -0.308 -0.5747 -0.701
2 Heart 461 42.54 27.16 77.66% -0.857 -0.8962 -0.202
2 Opposite Shores 3119 35.11 29.5 81.12% -0.133 -0.1186 -0.849
2 Thematic 1695 53.4 31.61 64.9% -0.271 -0.0739 0.312
2 Top to Top 540 41.42 30.92 77.96% -0.099 -0.1974 0.405
3 Archipelago 51 31.37 31.78 96.08% 0.536 0.0891
3 Coastline 188 24.6 28.54 89.36% 0.551 -0.4731 0.502
3 Other 765 37.91 27.43 83.14% -0.049 -0.4418 -0.591
3 Round (Default) 5572 38.28 32.87 79.2% -0.132 -0.4674 0.26
3 Sunrise 31 54.84 23.39 70.97% -0.117 0.1259
3 Thematic 323 41.8 29.41 73.37% -0.254 -0.5377 0.919
4 Archipelago 40 32.5 32.0 87.5% 0.083 -0.0742
4 Coastline 147 8.84 27.24 94.56% 0.503 -0.4356
4 Leaf 31 48.39 26.9 80.65% 0.056 -0.0917
4 Other 543 31.86 29.87 85.82% 1.236 -0.0935 0.027
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 571 36.95 32.23 77.76% 0.573 0.494 -0.396
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3715 30.71 29.48 84.66% -0.24 -0.3964 0.58
5 Archipelago 10 30.0 30.3 80.0%
5 Coastline 72 8.33 25.68 90.28% 0.25 -0.6619
5 Other 748 18.98 28.24 92.25% -0.316 -1.3905 -0.068
5 Thematic 107 29.91 27.93 87.85%
6 Archipelago 10 30.0 33.3 100.0% 0.017 -1.2825
6 Coastline 2 50.0 27.0 100.0%
6 Other 156 30.32 24.22 84.62% -0.473 -0.676 -0.214
6 Star 41 43.9 27.34 78.05% 0.24 0.3391 0.183
6 Thematic 116 37.07 25.62 71.55% -0.129 0.5201 -0.191
6 Two Centers (Default) 337 22.55 27.46 81.01% -0.581 -0.9158 0.457
7 Other 24 33.33 22.08 87.5% 0.074 0.4703 -0.33

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3165 22.34 45.66% -1.309 -1.1799 -0.791
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2633 23.62 47.36% -0.867 -0.9857 -0.73
All Things Weaken 1837 21.23 43.49% -1.82 -1.5124 -0.427
Attenuated Essence 151 21.85 50.99% -1.13 -1.0976 -1.174
Back Against the Wall 2528 23.1 46.16% -1.158 -1.1278 -0.917
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 138 19.97 42.03% -0.825 -0.639 -0.174
Burn Brightest Before the End 139 23.53 51.08% -1.368 -1.2975 -0.352
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3041 19.94 44.23% -1.247 -0.8716 -1.051
Downward Spiral 4971 21.23 52.48% -1.067 -0.9011 -0.775
Erosion of Will 3150 21.23 43.71% -0.971 -0.7563 -0.881
Intensifying Exploitation 191 20.51 50.26% -0.934 -0.6926 -0.216
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 704 30.56 86.93% 0.102 -0.4797 -0.384
Memory Fades to Dust 4948 20.73 49.82% -1.161 -0.8678 -0.681
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1920 21.79 48.49% -0.863 -0.7022 -0.592
Promising Farmlands 3034 20.99 46.41% -1.504 -1.2083 -0.731
Shattered Fragments of Power 107 23.48 38.32% -1.153 -1.0647 -0.816
Slow Dissolution of Will 158 17.47 37.97% -1.808 -1.4147 -0.82
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 381 31.4 87.4% -0.277 -0.9887 -0.095
The Border of Life and Death 30 20.97 66.67% -0.579 -1.0582 -0.329
Thriving Communities 2015 21.22 47.89% -1.3 -1.0001 -0.461
Thriving Crops 75 25.47 73.33% 0.445 0.3429 -0.483
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.506
Unnatural Proliferation 1980 24.65 49.19% -1.284 -1.1152 -0.393
Untended Land Crumbles 1930 21.91 49.59% -1.259 -1.0011 -0.616

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 20112 40.72% 28.55 75.79% 0.161 1.3038 -0.278
B 20442 41.29% 29.28 75.78% 0.179 1.2346 0.277
C 24087 38.46% 29.11 77.66% -0.075 0.8127 0.126
D 22114 39.78% 28.79 76.91% 0.141 1.1947 0.061
E 13141 36.09% 28.51 79.17% 0.378 1.2826 0.198
F 15070 39.46% 29.02 76.82% 0.092 1.0962 0.278
G 14209 40.04% 28.87 76.61% 0.064 1.032 0.065
H 15346 38.35% 29.28 78.18% 0.021 1.0139 0.117
East 4050 48.52% 29.87 66.62% -0.687 0.3009 -0.483
Northeast 2101 50.29% 31.68 65.64% 0.477 1.4266 -0.028
Northwest 1504 50.5% 31.52 65.29% -0.014 1.0274 -0.485
Southeast 1451 35.86% 28.28 76.77% 0.68 1.5986 0.227
Southwest 981 40.67% 27.43 73.39% -0.509 0.9481 0.205
West 3074 50.51% 29.47 65.19% -0.219 0.8875 0.066

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3091 0.0% 24.04 73.57% -0.886 -0.2227 -0.444
Not Using Events or Tokens 3758 51.26% 21.97 65.49% -0.642 -0.1475 -0.093
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6962 19.24% 34.68 87.02% 0.508 -0.1149 0.119
Start of Game Growth 10536 18.39% 33.6 87.66% 0.617 0.2044 0.607
Unlimited Undo 9979 31.42% 31.47 81.18% -0.154 -0.249 0.072
Using Tokens but Not Events 16346 26.49% 29.35 84.24% 0.325 0.4007 0.262

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13208 16.77 8.62%
II 28786 30.59 65.31%
III 36009 34.74 90.63%
IV 21303 38.3 99.95%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.051 Win Model: -0.111
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 67195 42.6% 27.59 72.62%
2 19003 44.2% 30.01 75.37%
3 6775 37.85% 32.01 79.5%
4 5042 30.38% 29.69 84.57%
5 726 17.63% 26.6 89.12%
6 565 29.43% 26.25 79.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1135
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32496
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18751
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 21187
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2465
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1026
Lose: Adversary condition 3202
Win: Sacrifice victory 297
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17849
Lose: Spirit destroyed 898

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)