Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 370 46.76% 31.82 -2.9 74.59% -0.542 -0.1208
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 947 49.84% 33.04 3.344 70.86% -0.497 -0.1898
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 591 58.74% 36.37 1.066 60.58% -1.388 -0.2581
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 317 55.87% 37.2 7.601 55.21% -0.675 0.638
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 215 71.5% 39.48 12.334 46.98% -0.189 1.1401
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 69 62.32% 39.29 2.419 42.03% -0.759 1.2576
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 116 56.03% 43.7 -2.732 40.52% -1.48 0.8235
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 997 50.65% 26.04 0.003 74.92% -0.047 -0.1975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4025 42.12% 31.94 2.318 81.34% 0.495 0.1988
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3487 47.94% 38.7 4.773 76.25% -0.396 -0.2939
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2497 53.07% 43.67 7.256 71.53% -0.696 -0.3928
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1606 52.43% 46.25 9.303 70.61% -0.735 -0.3279
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 894 62.96% 49.47 9.071 62.3% -1.124 -0.1779
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 723 72.03% 45.63 7.979 46.61% -1.106 0.3828
The Kingdom of England 0 1 676 46.14% 25.59 0.224 65.98% -0.551 -0.0731
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2364 44.76% 33.44 4.663 70.64% 0.029 0.601
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1452 58.23% 31.72 1.47 55.51% -1.431 -0.3243
The Kingdom of England 3 6 700 59.63% 35.7 3.245 47.71% -1.855 -0.2734
The Kingdom of England 4 7 382 54.45% 37.65 5.338 45.03% -1.101 0.3597
The Kingdom of England 5 9 168 67.66% 37.91 10.472 29.76% -1.115 1.0367
The Kingdom of England 6 11 283 63.83% 44.61 6.577 38.87% -1.628 0.7938
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 555 56.4% 27.21 0.261 60.72% -0.87 -0.1703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1313 57.98% 30.91 1.012 62.99% -0.809 0.3604
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 733 44.03% 33.04 3.729 40.38% -1.925 0.1372
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 465 51.19% 34.41 5.65 30.32% -1.826 0.4168
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 261 56.54% 39.6 6.671 36.02% -1.249 0.725
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 161 60.62% 40.35 7.138 31.68% -1.082 0.6832
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 527 60.91% 46.94 5.731 35.86% -2.138 0.0607
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 79 40.51% 35.58 2.675 75.95% 0.236 0.0647
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 189 37.23% 36.05 3.62 75.66% -0.426 0.5367
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 140 34.06% 38.06 3.801 72.14% -0.899 0.1547
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 111 37.27% 44.8 9.877 67.57% 0.012 0.7913
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 60 38.33% 47.65 8.828 71.67% -0.847 0.231
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 38 44.74% 46.03 8.502 57.89% -0.943 0.354
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 108 66.67% 52.72 10.364 61.11% -1.208 0.4913
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 710 56.06% 25.16 -1.74 72.25% -0.228 -0.1436
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2060 45.67% 30.26 1.59 78.11% -0.047 -0.0022
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1705 54.64% 31.46 2.451 71.96% -0.044 0.2235
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1145 65.38% 35.92 5.844 63.49% -0.055 0.2856
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 691 74.78% 35.37 4.365 54.7% -0.587 0.3983
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 268 67.91% 38.57 4.937 53.73% -0.155 1.1068
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 641 82.53% 38.62 6.796 46.8% -0.618 0.4757
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 299 51.51% 32.31 3.853 74.92% 0.29 -0.1349
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 635 54.5% 31.78 4.021 66.77% 0.137 0.8294
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 370 50.0% 37.89 2.519 74.32% -0.285 0.112
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 244 66.8% 37.83 13.803 53.28% 0.417 1.7466
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 139 60.14% 46.43 17.866 62.59% 0.235 1.377
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 91 78.02% 38.84 22.307 30.77% 0.312 2.1884
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 95 80.0% 50.55 0.998 41.05% -0.441 1.5697

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 53286 42.75 28.33 74.74% -0.394 0.2784 -0.505
1 Thematic 3030 53.99 26.47 63.2% -0.941 0.2537 -0.655
2 Archipelago 21 42.86 29.67 76.19%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9156 46.29 30.62 76.2% -0.096 0.412 0.015
2 Coastline 1685 40.83 31.49 79.47% 0.147 0.3574 0.467
2 Fragment 328 47.24 28.3 72.56% -0.293 -0.0888 -0.684
2 Heart 380 44.27 27.47 77.89% 0.202 0.8171 -0.291
2 Opposite Shores 2651 36.56 29.54 81.67% -0.21 0.2824 -0.574
2 Thematic 1360 54.57 32.67 67.72% 0.599 1.6982 0.313
2 Top to Top 449 40.45 31.02 81.29% 0.138 0.3193 0.497
3 Archipelago 37 32.43 30.59 94.59% -0.327 0.2377
3 Coastline 145 25.0 30.37 91.72% -0.098 -0.0552 0.231
3 Other 580 37.59 29.43 85.69% 0.769 -0.0698 -0.218
3 Round (Default) 4518 39.96 32.25 80.32% -0.017 0.2587 0.197
3 Sunrise 27 55.56 23.37 74.07% -0.859 -0.6346
3 Thematic 271 42.07 30.25 76.01% 0.203 0.6739 0.394
4 Archipelago 37 29.73 32.59 89.19% 0.188 0.1208
4 Coastline 109 9.17 28.53 95.41% 0.504 0.0444
4 Leaf 22 40.91 26.68 81.82%
4 Other 424 32.08 31.62 87.26% -0.207 -0.8532 0.367
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 544 37.13 32.69 79.23% 0.068 0.4708 -0.106
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3270 31.58 30.11 86.85% 0.046 0.2806 0.497
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 34.38 87.5% 0.101 -0.1661
5 Coastline 49 6.12 27.78 97.96% 0.182 -0.568
5 Other 512 19.34 29.46 95.31% 0.867 0.1504 -0.464
5 Thematic 101 29.7 27.46 89.11% 0.042 -0.8212
6 Archipelago 7 28.57 34.0 100.0%
6 Coastline 1 0.0 29.0 100.0%
6 Other 89 23.86 27.09 92.13% 0.373 -0.3093 -0.275
6 Star 22 50.0 31.73 86.36% -0.633 -0.1237 -0.108
6 Thematic 79 44.3 28.52 82.28% 0.033 0.0955
6 Two Centers (Default) 159 25.16 34.21 93.08% -0.681 -0.0831 0.337
7 Other 14 35.71 25.5 100.0% 0.025 -0.3332 0.26

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2811 22.77 46.39% -2.162 -0.2134 -0.991
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2365 23.72 47.86% -2.205 -0.4111 -0.788
All Things Weaken 1579 21.4 44.46% -2.602 -0.5179 -0.608
Back Against the Wall 2233 23.12 46.26% -2.214 -0.3328 -1.181
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2682 20.18 44.44% -2.446 -0.3733 -1.181
Downward Spiral 4348 21.5 53.31% -2.112 -0.2315 -0.962
Erosion of Will 2847 21.58 43.94% -2.344 -0.2551 -1.022
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 594 30.96 88.05% -0.906 -0.2987 -0.849
Memory Fades to Dust 4380 21.19 51.0% -2.055 0.0009 -0.823
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1587 21.51 48.77% -2.238 -0.3183 -1.041
Promising Farmlands 2698 21.29 46.96% -2.248 -0.2075 -0.959
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 315 32.03 90.48% 0.479 0.9184 -0.23
Thriving Communities 1692 21.63 48.52% -2.115 -0.04 -0.36
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.613
Unnatural Proliferation 1691 24.58 49.38% -2.286 -0.3298 -0.48
Untended Land Crumbles 1666 21.93 50.42% -2.409 -0.3996 -0.873

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 16899 41.43% 29.1 77.61% -0.147 0.6707 -0.131
B 17013 42.03% 29.87 77.7% -0.13 0.6309 0.468
C 20402 39.38% 29.66 79.28% 0.226 0.779 0.264
D 18443 40.86% 29.34 78.52% -0.065 0.701 0.051
E 9772 38.28% 29.46 80.54% 0.019 0.6457 0.292
F 12678 39.91% 29.64 78.62% -0.02 0.7015 0.383
G 11921 40.57% 29.48 78.34% 0.175 0.8574 0.162
H 12895 38.96% 29.79 79.7% 0.134 0.8149 0.374
East 3435 49.83% 30.7 68.18% 0.313 0.9186 -0.494
Northeast 1767 52.35% 32.86 66.89% 0.534 1.2274 0.076
Northwest 1246 52.31% 32.68 67.17% -0.628 -0.1493 -0.441
Southeast 1229 36.07% 28.74 79.01% 0.392 1.0758 0.445
Southwest 815 41.72% 28.75 77.55% 0.664 1.7018 0.489
West 2595 51.63% 30.51 67.55% 0.274 1.1121 0.183

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2488 0.0% 24.63 75.36% -1.803 0.4095 -0.504
Not Using Events or Tokens 3006 52.92% 23.39 69.63% -0.728 -0.5275 -0.051
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5800 20.37% 34.6 88.33% -0.12 -1.3633 0.728
Start of Game Growth 8950 19.05% 33.8 89.16% 0.392 0.0132 0.64
Unlimited Undo 8305 32.49% 31.61 82.69% -0.086 -0.5618 0.121
Using Tokens but Not Events 13012 27.6% 29.36 85.13% 0.48 0.6526 0.446

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9754 22.69 9.8%
II 24386 31.12 65.64%
III 30856 34.69 90.74%
IV 18401 37.96 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.146 Win Model: 0.061
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 56786 43.34% 28.26 74.21%
2 15966 44.67% 30.56 76.91%
3 5464 39.09% 31.87 80.91%
4 4418 31.18% 30.4 86.46%
5 463 16.41% 27.87 93.74%
6 300 33.78% 30.82 89.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 952
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27888
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15964
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 18312
Lose: Invader deck ran out 883
Lose: Adversary condition 2777
Win: Sacrifice victory 246
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15609
Lose: Spirit destroyed 766

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)