Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 465 46.67% 30.74 2.315 70.11% 0.114 0.4973
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1106 48.19% 32.06 -0.531 68.26% -0.987 -0.6605
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 703 57.71% 35.41 5.398 58.46% -0.265 0.5167
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 399 56.06% 36.14 3.98 53.38% -0.752 0.19
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 254 69.05% 38.37 4.897 44.49% -1.265 0.1814
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 94 58.51% 40.18 6.055 44.68% -0.821 0.5983
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 133 54.89% 41.45 1.119 38.35% -1.458 0.6004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1195 50.08% 25.55 -1.489 71.88% -0.701 -0.4794
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4736 39.88% 30.91 0.08 78.51% -0.373 -0.2661
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4135 47.36% 37.47 4.25 73.71% -0.18 -0.0587
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3054 52.64% 42.51 4.801 69.81% -0.587 -0.384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1949 52.21% 44.85 5.783 68.34% -0.617 -0.3155
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1104 61.4% 47.56 4.589 59.51% -1.23 -0.6739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 894 69.73% 44.09 11.708 45.53% -0.341 1.1204
The Kingdom of England 0 1 822 45.95% 25.49 0.4 62.9% -0.729 -0.4
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2731 44.29% 32.25 0.516 67.96% -0.651 -0.3753
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1742 56.71% 30.75 1.712 53.67% -1.042 -0.3074
The Kingdom of England 3 6 872 55.95% 35.03 5.357 47.25% -0.844 0.2982
The Kingdom of England 4 7 486 52.38% 37.17 7.369 44.65% -0.882 0.3533
The Kingdom of England 5 9 207 66.5% 36.02 1.065 29.47% -1.213 0.4572
The Kingdom of England 6 11 368 60.88% 39.77 -0.119 33.97% -2.139 -0.082
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 644 53.35% 27.09 -1.351 59.01% -1.355 -0.8023
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1525 57.0% 30.09 2.229 60.92% -0.345 0.3158
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 871 42.43% 32.89 5.3 40.07% -0.779 0.2566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 563 49.19% 34.75 5.254 32.33% -1.266 0.1039
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 319 51.58% 40.4 9.434 38.56% -0.641 0.8051
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 184 59.02% 39.26 4.728 30.98% -1.396 -0.3286
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 621 60.23% 45.47 12.08 34.62% -0.994 0.4359
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 182 42.2% 31.04 -0.523 65.93% -0.812 -0.5651
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 396 38.48% 31.71 1.583 65.4% -0.309 0.3144
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 343 31.56% 36.35 5.864 69.97% 0.011 0.5185
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 312 35.6% 44.14 9.051 67.95% -0.348 0.0905
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 239 43.7% 43.44 7.619 62.76% -0.734 0.0618
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 123 47.97% 48.21 14.103 65.04% 0.009 0.4972
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 262 68.32% 47.66 11.644 53.05% -0.856 0.1146
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 871 55.9% 25.54 0.953 70.95% 0.068 0.2567
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2379 44.36% 29.57 1.236 76.38% 0.182 0.204
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2021 53.57% 30.99 2.173 70.56% 0.079 0.2589
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1409 62.99% 34.88 5.041 61.89% -0.084 0.2401
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 848 71.16% 34.84 4.529 54.36% -0.673 0.0283
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 316 68.04% 37.1 -0.6 52.22% -1.11 -0.2917
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 800 80.13% 37.26 1.928 46.88% -0.921 0.1598
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 381 48.82% 31.51 -1.163 70.87% -0.555 -0.4113
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 793 53.73% 30.17 -1.637 63.3% -1.006 -0.1952
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 473 48.2% 36.53 3.025 71.67% -0.363 -0.1249
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 326 66.26% 35.43 5.705 49.39% -0.417 0.6825
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 180 58.1% 44.83 9.784 60.0% -0.211 0.7703
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 109 77.06% 38.59 0.463 31.19% -0.67 0.953
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 118 73.73% 50.78 25.941 43.22% 0.315 2.0192

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 64995 41.85 27.56 72.85% -0.501 -0.4221 -0.289
1 Thematic 3463 51.99 26.04 63.21% 0.024 0.4788 -0.568
2 Archipelago 47 29.79 33.23 87.23% 0.361 0.8666 -0.585
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11114 45.96 30.07 74.31% -0.178 -0.1992 0.177
2 Coastline 2063 40.41 30.28 77.61% -0.529 -0.6254 0.684
2 Fragment 399 47.36 27.01 71.18% 0.145 -0.2636 -0.71
2 Heart 480 41.47 27.02 77.71% -0.692 -0.8396 -0.262
2 Opposite Shores 3228 35.48 29.44 80.58% -0.277 -0.4381 -0.883
2 Thematic 1739 53.89 31.47 64.23% -0.257 -0.0208 0.454
2 Top to Top 554 41.45 31.06 78.16% 1.157 1.0012 0.429
3 Archipelago 51 31.37 31.78 96.08% 0.059 -1.2132
3 Coastline 206 22.44 28.3 89.32% 1.221 0.4914 0.555
3 Other 795 37.61 27.42 82.89% 0.246 -0.0702 -0.548
3 Round (Default) 5803 38.54 32.92 78.98% 0.008 -0.2735 0.259
3 Sunrise 34 52.94 22.26 70.59% -0.314 -0.2865
3 Thematic 325 42.15 29.32 73.23% -0.051 -0.3843 0.885
4 Archipelago 40 32.5 32.0 87.5%
4 Coastline 164 9.15 27.04 94.51% 0.521 -0.1295
4 Leaf 31 48.39 26.9 80.65%
4 Other 566 31.45 29.94 86.22% 1.138 0.4745 0.152
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 599 37.06 31.54 76.46% 0.067 0.4751 -0.359
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3782 30.56 29.34 84.24% -0.315 -0.0168 0.421
5 Archipelago 10 30.0 30.3 80.0%
5 Coastline 77 7.79 25.77 90.91% 0.27 -0.161
5 Other 803 18.56 28.05 91.66% -0.416 -1.0211 -0.088
5 Thematic 108 29.63 27.94 87.96% 0.273 0.5621
6 Archipelago 10 30.0 33.3 100.0%
6 Coastline 6 16.67 28.83 83.33% -0.239 -0.5869
6 Other 181 28.89 24.33 83.43% -0.063 0.2805 -0.176
6 Star 41 43.9 27.34 78.05% 0.165
6 Thematic 119 36.13 25.5 70.59% -0.296 -0.3042 -0.258
6 Two Centers (Default) 365 23.56 27.67 80.55% 0.04 -0.0493 0.558
7 Other 29 27.59 22.52 82.76% -0.637 -2.194 -0.412

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3236 22.31 45.55% -1.311 -1.1165 -0.775
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2685 23.69 47.3% -1.18 -1.1885 -0.665
All Things Weaken 1879 21.28 43.27% -1.616 -1.2627 -0.357
Attenuated Essence 174 21.68 48.28% -1.304 -1.153 -1.486
Back Against the Wall 2568 23.14 46.22% -0.768 -0.6754 -0.784
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 166 20.34 42.77% -0.865 -0.6467 -0.322
Burn Brightest Before the End 154 23.44 51.95% -0.812 -0.6341 -0.509
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3095 19.85 44.1% -1.259 -0.8701 -1.037
Downward Spiral 5083 21.22 52.43% -0.827 -0.6344 -0.708
Erosion of Will 3213 21.18 43.51% -1.367 -1.0654 -0.867
Intensifying Exploitation 207 21.27 50.72% -0.464 -0.1777 -0.154
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 727 30.51 86.24% -0.251 -0.8119 -0.281
Memory Fades to Dust 5059 20.79 49.73% -1.139 -0.8101 -0.573
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1970 21.82 48.58% -0.932 -0.623 -0.561
Promising Farmlands 3087 20.92 46.26% -1.291 -0.93 -0.677
Shattered Fragments of Power 125 23.76 40.0% -0.769 -0.6254 -0.634
Slow Dissolution of Will 188 18.19 39.36% -1.118 -0.6664 -1.076
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 390 31.2 86.67% -0.308 -0.8645 -0.251
The Border of Life and Death 36 21.83 66.67% -1.027 -1.3212 -0.321
Thriving Communities 2078 21.24 48.22% -0.985 -0.6573 -0.474
Thriving Crops 82 25.83 74.39% 0.544 0.5012 -0.572
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.533
Unnatural Proliferation 2066 24.54 49.42% -1.072 -0.8849 -0.363
Untended Land Crumbles 1984 21.93 49.5% -1.321 -0.9916 -0.609

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 20745 40.45% 28.48 75.64% 0.07 0.964 -0.3
B 21121 41.06% 29.26 75.51% 0.084 0.9056 0.327
C 24739 38.32% 29.04 77.4% 0.031 0.7006 0.146
D 22776 39.65% 28.72 76.59% 0.09 0.9186 0.059
E 13850 35.59% 28.43 79.16% 0.415 1.1078 0.225
F 15573 39.27% 29.03 76.64% 0.151 0.9296 0.289
G 14655 40.06% 28.82 76.32% 0.174 0.9383 0.029
H 15801 38.12% 29.26 78.03% 0.186 0.9436 0.102
East 4190 48.42% 29.67 66.4% -0.576 0.2708 -0.306
Northeast 2156 50.26% 31.56 65.4% 0.946 1.6216 0.182
Northwest 1546 50.23% 31.3 64.81% -0.598 0.2157 -0.708
Southeast 1526 35.67% 28.03 76.61% 0.394 1.0797 0.09
Southwest 1009 40.44% 27.22 73.14% -0.418 0.959 0.236
West 3174 50.43% 29.2 64.68% -0.53 0.4273 -0.137

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3141 0.0% 24.29 73.48% -1.063 -0.2241 -0.427
Not Using Events or Tokens 3851 50.86% 21.89 65.28% -0.312 0.1375 -0.153
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7102 19.15% 34.88 86.93% -0.006 -0.5731 0.219
Start of Game Growth 10822 18.17% 33.67 87.62% 1.014 0.4939 0.659
Unlimited Undo 10239 31.32% 31.55 81.02% -0.154 -0.1155 0.024
Using Tokens but Not Events 17014 26.23% 29.38 84.25% 0.627 0.5941 0.25

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13813 16.17 8.43%
II 29580 30.54 65.21%
III 37032 34.77 90.67%
IV 21875 38.39 99.94%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.012 Win Model: -0.145
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 69100 42.35% 27.51 72.45%
2 19567 44.13% 29.98 75.09%
3 7055 37.96% 32.03 79.32%
4 5175 30.26% 29.53 84.19%
5 784 16.96% 26.46 88.65%
6 619 28.8% 26.3 78.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1161
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 33436
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19240
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 21754
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2898
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1056
Lose: Adversary condition 3294
Win: Sacrifice victory 301
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18238
Lose: Spirit destroyed 922

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-16 05:27:44 (Pacific Time)