Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 196 44.9% 29.64 1.279 77.55% -0.243 0.0405
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 686 48.18% 33.09 3.038 73.03% -0.534 -0.1236
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 434 56.81% 36.9 5.005 62.44% -1.033 -0.156
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 224 56.5% 36.96 5.062 54.91% -1.546 -0.3001
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 139 73.19% 36.77 5.511 41.73% -1.65 -0.1476
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 46 63.04% 36.83 5.417 36.96% -2.087 -0.1339
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 82 57.32% 42.91 8.248 40.24% -2.333 -0.29
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1085 54.1% 24.46 -0.765 73.82% -0.068 -0.0256
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4368 43.93% 31.56 2.42 80.61% 0.096 0.0777
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3520 49.2% 38.3 5.996 74.89% -0.201 -0.1883
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2398 54.71% 43.11 8.524 69.64% -0.401 -0.1131
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1540 53.19% 46.15 9.949 70.19% -0.432 -0.0654
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 854 64.47% 49.44 11.861 62.41% -0.573 0.2537
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 729 70.83% 46.29 10.094 47.74% -1.335 -0.0968
The Kingdom of England 0 1 659 47.8% 22.64 -1.925 63.43% -1.028 -0.696
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2511 46.74% 32.86 3.06 69.26% -0.757 -0.2429
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1477 58.79% 31.69 2.767 55.11% -1.241 -0.2732
The Kingdom of England 3 6 672 60.75% 35.36 4.574 46.88% -1.778 -0.1997
The Kingdom of England 4 7 366 61.92% 36.42 4.971 41.8% -2.147 -0.649
The Kingdom of England 5 9 140 68.35% 37.95 5.729 29.29% -2.67 -0.5963
The Kingdom of England 6 11 288 56.29% 48.32 10.472 44.44% -2.35 -0.1016
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 541 59.33% 25.4 -0.438 61.0% -0.878 -0.3642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1404 57.96% 30.23 1.851 60.83% -0.929 -0.0294
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 715 47.06% 32.91 2.873 41.26% -2.795 -0.6518
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 498 56.74% 34.65 3.993 31.33% -3.049 -0.853
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 287 58.54% 38.52 5.953 33.8% -2.833 -0.6749
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 162 62.11% 38.86 6.131 28.4% -3.023 -1.2057
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 523 60.99% 47.33 10.137 36.14% -2.812 -0.7145
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 651 59.45% 23.25 -1.331 71.43% -0.075 0.01
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2128 47.76% 29.63 1.374 76.08% -0.169 -0.1355
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1644 55.42% 31.35 2.447 70.74% -0.296 -0.0609
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1076 64.56% 35.78 4.893 61.99% -0.61 -0.3232
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 661 73.98% 36.34 5.355 56.13% -0.705 0.0785
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 275 70.91% 38.81 6.42 52.36% -0.946 0.22
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 661 79.09% 40.24 7.244 49.47% -0.967 0.1571
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 121 53.72% 26.43 0.062 79.34% 0.096 -0.0057
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 430 53.74% 31.43 2.253 66.28% -0.851 -0.0725
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 249 47.79% 38.45 5.624 77.51% -0.228 0.1913
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 169 68.64% 34.91 4.385 47.93% -1.489 -0.2356
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 88 63.64% 42.53 7.986 55.68% -1.105 0.0118
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 54 83.33% 38.61 6.38 31.48% -1.844 0.1553
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 72 76.39% 51.68 12.75 43.06% -1.428 0.4502

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 51073 44.63 27.62 -0.56 73.53% -0.644 -0.4716
1 Thematic 2901 56.99 26.59 -0.614 59.7% -1.015 -0.6535
2 Archipelago 8 37.5 26.38 -0.55 75.0% -0.078 0.1486
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9068 47.61 30.76 0.641 75.35% -0.089 -0.0377
2 Coastline 1563 45.13 30.7 0.564 77.16% -0.086 -0.0789
2 Fragment 312 47.59 27.29 -1.381 70.51% -0.661 -0.4051
2 Heart 287 48.42 27.85 -0.435 76.31% -0.25 -0.1081
2 Opposite Shores 2551 42.63 29.45 -0.231 78.2% -0.141 -0.0502
2 Thematic 1227 56.98 32.68 1.177 64.79% -0.379 -0.4206
2 Top to Top 438 46.06 31.79 0.938 78.08% 0.039 0.0077
3 Coastline 57 42.11 36.19 2.649 80.7% 0.737 0.5386
3 Other 350 41.71 30.82 0.262 82.0% -0.096 0.0783
3 Round (Default) 4426 42.33 31.88 0.742 78.97% 0.219 0.1458
3 Sunrise 25 52.0 31.84 0.872 84.0% 0.428 0.1518
3 Thematic 178 52.25 34.22 0.894 63.48% -0.468 -0.8696
4 Archipelago 7 42.86 44.43 5.067 71.43% 0.133 0.6414
4 Coastline 21 14.29 32.95 0.615 90.48% -0.284 -0.2343
4 Leaf 17 47.06 29.94 -0.275 82.35% 0.342 0.3136
4 Other 244 38.52 35.03 1.828 85.25% 0.325 0.2107
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0 43.8 4.573 100.0% 0.369 -0.4855
4 Snake 1 100.0 20.0 -7.542 0.0% -0.275 -0.2216
4 Thematic 566 41.13 34.33 0.839 74.73% 0.276 -0.808
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3534 32.29 30.84 0.153 86.45% 0.543 0.4562
5 Other 148 25.68 31.75 0.618 97.3% 1.184 0.5809
5 Thematic 36 16.67 32.42 0.615 97.22% 0.585 -2.1772
6 Thematic 1 0.0 37.0 -0.95 100.0% 0.001 -0.0092

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3155 22.43 -4.496 45.55% -3.208 -1.1345
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2563 23.47 -4.003 46.82% -3.212 -1.2943
All Things Weaken 1017 20.86 -5.121 43.36% -3.338 -1.1675
Back Against the Wall 2445 22.84 -4.294 45.15% -3.273 -1.182
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2769 20.2 -5.72 43.7% -3.297 -1.0725
Downward Spiral 5028 20.86 -4.761 53.06% -2.906 -0.8829
Erosion of Will 3044 21.12 -5.109 42.9% -3.355 -1.1458
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 387 31.02 -0.054 88.11% -0.961 -0.2743
Memory Fades to Dust 4789 20.69 -4.954 50.45% -3.081 -0.8627
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1039 21.13 -4.896 48.41% -3.114 -1.0898
Promising Farmlands 2836 20.88 -5.208 45.59% -3.215 -1.0012
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 32.85 0.53 90.36% -0.77 -0.3599
Thriving Communities 1061 21.07 -5.016 46.75% -3.192 -1.0976
Tipping Point 1584 21.71 -4.824 45.08% -3.165 -0.9389
Unnatural Proliferation 1142 23.91 -3.689 47.99% -3.06 -0.9733
Untended Land Crumbles 1070 22.32 -4.405 50.56% -3.039 -0.9337

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18272 44.46% 28.86 -0.144 75.79% 0.831 0.0704
B 18603 44.57% 29.46 0.201 75.62% 0.844 -0.0128
C 21452 42.49% 29.44 0.355 77.02% 0.948 -0.1405
D 19897 44.12% 29.16 0.18 76.59% 0.947 0.0968
E 5647 41.2% 29.81 0.251 78.79% 0.936 -0.0296
F 9046 40.74% 29.82 0.152 77.88% 0.844 -0.0702
G 8477 41.67% 29.51 0.015 77.41% 0.797 -0.1086
H 9057 39.93% 30.12 0.335 78.75% 0.897 -0.0173
East 1798 54.46% 32.0 0.637 64.57% 0.765 0.1153
Northeast 1844 53.72% 32.45 1.083 64.7% 0.805 0.2059
Northwest 1341 54.93% 32.49 0.775 63.91% 0.795 0.1248
Southeast 900 36.82% 28.16 0.14 78.33% 1.18 0.4743
Southwest 586 42.49% 28.06 -0.543 75.6% 0.972 0.6986
West 1576 53.34% 31.33 0.258 63.2% 0.515 0.1159

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2897 0.0% 24.29 -2.97 74.77% -2.729 -0.6726
Not Using Events or Tokens 3561 54.85% 22.0 -2.549 68.1% -0.321 -0.1056
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6287 22.03% 34.62 2.276 87.02% 0.48 -0.2074
Start of Game Growth 8863 19.91% 34.18 2.199 88.32% 0.594 0.1243
Unlimited Undo 8437 33.42% 32.34 0.954 81.23% 0.08 -0.3396
Using Tokens but Not Events 11585 31.87% 28.06 -0.313 83.61% 0.176 0.1233

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9991 22.35 10.44%
II 23777 30.84 64.3%
III 28450 34.35 90.04%
IV 16826 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.289 Win Model: -0.929
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 54272 45.29% 27.59 72.86%
2 15380 47.28% 30.61 75.2%
3 4974 42.61% 32.0 78.47%
4 4418 33.23% 31.39 85.15%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 738
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20347
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11685
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13464
Lose: Invader deck ran out 863
Lose: Adversary condition 2490
Win: Sacrifice victory 226
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16029
Lose: Spirit destroyed 889

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)