Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 338 47.04% 31.53 2.253 74.85% -0.08 0.4708
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 887 50.45% 32.93 3.733 70.91% -0.304 0.5739
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 553 58.7% 36.67 6.295 61.66% -0.207 0.9123
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 294 56.85% 36.73 3.044 54.08% -1.329 0.2022
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 191 71.58% 38.34 6.509 45.03% -1.125 0.4622
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 62 58.06% 39.89 8.063 43.55% -0.87 0.6931
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 111 56.76% 43.27 6.19 39.64% -1.369 0.8912
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 933 50.48% 25.82 2.06 75.13% -0.238 0.0063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3835 42.22% 31.87 2.317 81.2% 0.296 0.1692
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3275 47.72% 38.81 6.044 76.61% 0.13 0.246
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2304 53.28% 43.62 8.42 71.48% -0.064 0.3106
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1486 52.97% 46.2 8.631 70.66% -0.403 0.0631
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 820 63.65% 49.66 9.493 63.05% -0.978 0.0074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 657 71.8% 46.15 9.972 47.79% -0.93 0.6449
The Kingdom of England 0 1 622 46.29% 24.86 -1.868 64.95% -0.943 -0.4273
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2250 44.86% 33.32 2.227 70.53% -0.845 -0.2353
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1373 58.57% 31.7 1.58 55.5% -1.022 0.1049
The Kingdom of England 3 6 665 61.14% 35.41 0.322 47.37% -2.215 -0.4717
The Kingdom of England 4 7 359 55.71% 37.53 8.291 44.85% -1.137 0.4422
The Kingdom of England 5 9 151 68.67% 37.45 -0.75 28.48% -1.893 -0.156
The Kingdom of England 6 11 244 65.84% 43.9 9.439 37.7% -0.67 1.6286
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 484 58.06% 26.42 0.968 60.74% -0.65 0.2524
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1224 57.99% 30.98 3.533 63.07% -0.319 0.5716
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 659 46.27% 32.38 4.019 39.0% -1.687 0.7159
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 409 53.3% 33.39 1.552 28.12% -2.198 0.1858
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 240 57.08% 39.28 12.652 35.42% -0.498 1.9771
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 153 60.53% 40.43 9.517 32.03% -0.825 1.2531
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 496 62.3% 47.18 2.511 36.29% -2.26 0.1076
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 37 32.43% 36.62 1.993 75.68% -0.336 -0.4602
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 99 37.37% 34.46 3.172 73.74% -0.384 0.4603
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 60 31.67% 38.75 4.871 71.67% -0.735 0.0934
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 52 44.23% 40.4 6.219 55.77% -1.301 -0.4305
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 45.83% 47.96 9.711 70.83% -0.459 0.7768
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 15 40.0% 44.67 7.769 53.33% -1.266 0.1649
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 24 62.5% 49.38 11.494 54.17% -0.782 0.9165
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 655 56.79% 24.9 1.466 71.91% -0.857 -0.6901
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1865 45.99% 30.04 2.821 77.59% 0.729 0.5056
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1539 55.17% 31.4 3.553 71.8% 0.357 0.8104
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1036 65.73% 35.74 4.374 62.84% -0.378 -0.0681
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 631 75.12% 35.14 2.139 53.88% -0.946 0.0063
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 248 68.55% 38.49 8.553 52.82% -0.293 0.688
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 599 82.14% 38.63 -1.324 46.91% -1.869 -0.6776
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 255 54.51% 30.15 1.349 73.73% -0.714 -0.7701
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 586 55.14% 31.65 2.42 66.55% -0.522 0.2524
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 336 48.81% 37.98 4.006 75.0% -0.921 -0.21
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 226 67.26% 36.93 6.326 51.33% -0.581 0.7572
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 129 62.5% 45.08 12.986 59.69% -0.308 1.0772
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 80 80.0% 38.51 20.424 30.0% 0.053 1.9902
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 87 78.16% 50.2 12.303 40.23% -0.387 1.6323

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 49473 42.78 28.24 74.85% 0.118 1.1347 -0.563
1 Thematic 2849 55.03 26.58 62.51% 0.482 1.6549 -0.705
2 Archipelago 21 42.86 29.67 76.19%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8432 46.58 30.44 76.15% 0.076 0.8277 0.156
2 Coastline 1583 40.91 31.64 79.47% -0.117 0.4857 0.449
2 Fragment 314 46.47 27.97 72.61% -0.278 0.1698 -0.934
2 Heart 337 46.41 27.45 77.45% 0.035 0.5729 -0.488
2 Opposite Shores 2432 37.06 29.42 81.46% -0.089 0.9035 -0.529
2 Other 3 33.33 29.67 66.67%
2 Thematic 1308 54.9 32.42 67.13% -0.675 0.024 0.302
2 Top to Top 407 41.69 30.89 81.08% 0.204 0.7147 0.366
3 Archipelago 13 46.15 33.77 92.31% 0.428 0.6012
3 Coastline 114 27.19 31.58 90.35% 0.697 -0.0863 0.235
3 Other 490 37.55 30.12 85.51% 0.836 0.8002 -0.484
3 Round (Default) 4148 41.26 31.72 79.94% -0.153 0.4413 0.434
3 Sunrise 23 60.87 24.22 78.26% 0.111 0.1482
3 Thematic 247 42.51 30.12 76.11% -0.156 -0.1938 0.376
4 Archipelago 23 39.13 35.78 82.61% 0.015 -0.6959
4 Coastline 78 6.41 29.04 96.15% 0.096 0.2127
4 Leaf 22 40.91 26.68 81.82%
4 Other 357 33.05 32.27 86.83% 0.079 -0.1744 0.335
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0 32.67 100.0%
4 Thematic 524 36.64 32.76 79.01% -0.415 0.1146 -0.013
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3133 31.53 29.96 86.72% 0.226 0.1985 0.563
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 34.38 87.5% 0.012 -0.5664
5 Coastline 28 0.0 28.0 100.0% 0.056 -0.5092
5 Other 412 19.17 29.39 95.39% -0.253 -0.085 -0.351
5 Thematic 94 28.72 27.17 89.36% 0.336 0.0593
6 Archipelago 7 28.57 34.0 100.0%
6 Other 42 33.33 24.67 88.1% -0.529 0.2807
6 Star 17 52.94 34.47 88.24% -0.116 0.6673 -0.015
6 Thematic 65 41.54 27.82 83.08% 0.043 -0.2353
6 Two Centers (Default) 104 27.88 34.3 94.23% -0.172 -0.2656 0.307
7 Other 4 25.0 24.25 100.0% 0.283 -0.8696

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2645 22.77 46.47% -2.204 -0.3014 -1.016
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2231 23.67 47.78% -2.582 -0.8524 -0.877
All Things Weaken 1411 21.49 44.79% -2.629 -0.6438 -0.587
Back Against the Wall 2107 22.99 45.85% -2.445 -0.6282 -1.081
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2526 20.09 44.26% -2.601 -0.551 -1.407
Downward Spiral 4098 21.41 53.44% -2.057 -0.0639 -0.982
Erosion of Will 2655 21.54 44.03% -2.654 -0.5709 -1.063
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 522 30.93 87.93% -0.457 -0.0163 -1.046
Memory Fades to Dust 4127 21.11 50.96% -2.357 -0.2728 -0.786
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1422 21.29 48.38% -2.45 -0.5121 -1.042
Promising Farmlands 2504 21.27 46.88% -2.532 -0.4856 -1.062
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 284 32.18 90.49% 0.617 1.0418 0.001
Thriving Communities 1541 21.25 48.54% -2.0 -0.0163 -0.498
Tipping Point 870 22.79 47.13% -0.617
Unnatural Proliferation 1527 24.48 49.71% -2.057 -0.0929 -0.535
Untended Land Crumbles 1478 21.97 50.68% -2.288 -0.2952 -0.788

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 15618 41.79% 28.85 77.44% 0.068 0.8658 -0.15
B 15669 42.34% 29.65 77.64% 0.11 0.8539 0.443
C 18784 39.8% 29.47 79.08% 0.184 0.7526 0.348
D 17091 41.28% 29.18 78.42% 0.215 1.0102 0.097
E 8467 39.55% 29.5 79.98% 0.57 1.2168 0.202
F 11723 40.17% 29.59 78.52% 0.13 0.8541 0.436
G 11028 40.88% 29.36 78.19% 0.216 0.9478 0.222
H 11778 39.4% 29.82 79.48% 0.085 0.7978 0.477
East 3208 50.42% 30.79 67.61% -0.588 0.1811 -0.416
Northeast 1659 52.51% 32.91 66.31% -0.232 0.6276 0.127
Northwest 1184 52.21% 32.63 66.72% 0.101 1.1775 -0.346
Southeast 1103 36.48% 28.76 78.79% 0.267 0.9732 0.381
Southwest 732 42.08% 28.71 76.64% 0.632 1.757 0.486
West 2446 52.1% 30.51 66.8% -0.243 0.7106 0.287

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2373 0.0% 24.51 75.81% -1.456 0.6734 -0.53
Not Using Events or Tokens 2871 52.7% 23.36 70.08% -0.117 0.0577 0.091
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5430 20.66% 33.87 88.42% -0.205 -0.3471 0.574
Start of Game Growth 8402 19.1% 33.22 89.31% 0.573 -0.1874 0.789
Unlimited Undo 8005 32.46% 31.57 82.64% 0.879 0.2745 0.192
Using Tokens but Not Events 11676 28.44% 28.96 84.83% 0.245 0.0888 0.533

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9075 22.56 9.87%
II 22597 30.98 65.57%
III 28478 34.53 90.76%
IV 16970 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.075 Win Model: 0.018
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 52696 43.43% 28.18 74.26%
2 14782 45.1% 30.44 76.69%
3 4944 40.42% 31.55 80.44%
4 4161 31.23% 30.34 86.25%
5 338 16.27% 27.31 93.79%
6 199 36.68% 30.5 88.94%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 892
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25745
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14778
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16891
Lose: Invader deck ran out 803
Lose: Adversary condition 2522
Win: Sacrifice victory 222
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14558
Lose: Spirit destroyed 709

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)