Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 40 27.5% 25.75 65.0% -0.55 -0.4562 0.0
Blitz 0 3452 39.92% 32.34 70.86% -0.092 0.1515 -0.24
Dahan Insurrection 4 6345 30.62% 55.54 76.88% -0.21 0.0741 0.44
Despicable Theft 2 256 44.92% 35.34 79.69% -1.747 -1.531 0.213
Elemental Invocation 1 213 54.93% 32.39 64.32% -0.182 0.4225 -1.098
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9545 12.27% 45.65 80.38% -0.245 -0.0717 0.57
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2054 36.0% 42.43 79.11% 0.176 0.4692 -0.713
Rituals of Terror 3 1582 48.36% 54.57 73.64% 0.822 0.7947 0.835
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 422 77.43% 35.34 51.66% 0.745 1.322 -0.441
Second Wave 0 6489 48.93% 28.83 71.12% -0.645 -0.1829 -0.767
The Great River 3 291 56.55% 32.18 56.36% -0.963 0.5034 -1.667
Varied Terrains 2 16 56.25% 25.81 56.25% -1.027 -0.4741 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 1358 48.43% 36.16 64.51% -0.259 0.9314 -0.406

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 193570 51.18% 26.6 73.67% -0.001 0.4429 -0.427
1 Thematic 7616 56.67% 36.01 58.08% -0.186 0.3899 -0.31
2 Archipelago 62 48.39% 55.44 79.03% 0.515 1.1495 0.168
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 53888 43.36% 32.09 75.57% -0.037 0.3357 0.197
2 Coastline 8946 41.33% 32.01 77.04% -0.01 0.0732 -0.153
2 Fragment 1429 49.1% 26.62 70.26% -0.207 -0.1973 0.136
2 Heart 705 50.82% 26.65 70.92% -0.059 0.1947 -0.152
2 Opposite Shores 12317 43.15% 34.71 76.46% 0.165 0.6402 -0.057
2 Thematic 4575 45.45% 44.58 64.5% 0.401 0.7854 0.004
2 Top to Top 2623 43.12% 34.3 77.09% 0.342 0.6443 0.083
3 Archipelago 42 38.1% 39.29 92.86% 0.145 -0.3417 -0.167
3 Coastline 331 23.69% 46.7 89.43% 0.684 0.1294 1.023
3 Other 1181 39.14% 32.88 79.25% 0.483 -0.5525 0.134
3 Round (Default) 25916 36.43% 35.18 80.2% 0.531 0.8236 -0.306
3 Sunrise 117 39.82% 32.93 82.91% -0.372 -0.5983 -0.169
3 Thematic 1020 45.92% 40.77 62.06% -0.303 -0.6936 -0.15
4 Archipelago 42 31.71% 45.38 95.24% 0.287 -0.5691 0.15
4 Coastline 222 19.63% 51.5 82.88% 0.319 0.2215 0.899
4 Leaf 106 33.01% 35.73 83.02% 0.0 0.2397 -0.131
4 Other 810 33.16% 36.63 82.35% -0.28 -0.7261 -0.265
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.225
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 5148 29.19% 51.57 77.04% 0.301 0.3364 -0.137
4 Trapezoid (Default) 22297 29.07% 37.36 83.22% 0.028 -0.1279 -0.148
5 Archipelago 9 11.11% 46.56 88.89% 0.004 -0.4144 0.0
5 Coastline 60 8.62% 65.08 100.0% 0.319 -0.2025 1.045
5 Other 331 31.27% 44.21 90.63% 0.067 0.4148 0.267
5 Thematic 35 28.57% 58.06 82.86% -0.353 -0.4727 1.081
6 Archipelago 26 18.18% 46.77 92.31% 0.386 -0.1308 0.047
6 Coastline 30 5.56% 50.7 96.67% -0.505 -0.9626 0.151
6 Other 212 21.67% 38.24 78.77% -0.752 0.0367 -1.176
6 Star 63 20.97% 39.57 77.78% 0.131 0.8629 -1.39
6 Thematic 301 22.26% 37.54 77.74% -0.966 -0.7882 -0.915
6 Two Centers (Default) 452 19.41% 34.65 90.49% -0.193 0.1697 -0.706
7 Archipelago 7 28.57% 36.71 85.71% 0.0 -0.8359 -0.799
7 Other 8 33.33% 42.75 50.0% -0.303 -1.055 -0.329

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 7655 32.63 53.57% -1.81 0.018 -0.528
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6757 34.65 56.62% -1.387 0.256 -0.27
All Things Weaken 2658 34.87 54.63% -1.539 0.439 -0.45
Back Against the Wall 6581 32.64 50.83% -2.303 -0.4517 -0.822
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7109 29.49 47.83% -2.344 -0.3652 -0.692
Downward Spiral 27913 25.27 54.44% -2.15 -0.25 -0.655
Erosion of Will 7315 31.02 48.82% -1.837 0.2439 -0.635
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1183 42.08 79.8% 0.74 1.2786 0.072
Memory Fades to Dust 28262 24.7 50.38% -2.322 -0.3427 -0.784
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2432 32.51 51.15% -2.132 -0.2414 -0.727
Promising Farmlands 7288 29.43 46.67% -2.495 -0.4865 -0.951
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 726 42.31 85.54% -0.378 0.0673 0.376
Thriving Communities 2503 32.03 49.46% -1.943 0.0287 -0.695
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 0.4835 -0.716
Unnatural Proliferation 2751 34.39 51.65% -2.224 -0.332 -0.686
Untended Land Crumbles 2560 33.2 51.37% -2.911 -0.8879 -0.632

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 116903 40.59% 31.82 75.25% -0.052 0.7228 0.551
B 91974 40.65% 31.3 75.28% -0.254 0.449 0.469
C 146757 41.55% 29.71 81.84% 0.505 1.0698 0.346
D 90294 41.02% 30.75 74.18% -0.436 0.3291 0.35
E 15717 44.49% 36.67 76.06% -0.406 0.2003 0.587
F 25138 42.13% 34.92 75.98% 0.013 0.7195 0.415
G 25501 40.89% 37.02 78.03% -0.047 0.6827 1.219
H 25710 40.52% 36.15 77.29% -0.239 0.4353 0.856
East 14888 42.72% 45.12 66.57% -0.576 0.0842 -0.438
Northeast 9036 38.47% 46.71 69.62% -0.193 0.5098 -0.093
Northwest 7737 35.37% 47.75 71.67% -0.384 0.6754 -0.461
Southeast 1367 39.4% 40.6 70.3% -0.806 -0.0627 -1.307
Southwest 1155 37.99% 38.76 70.13% 0.062 1.0714 0.359
West 11931 39.11% 45.59 68.55% 0.667 1.7353 0.238

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 84371 0.0% 22.25 79.01% -1.565 0.4517 -1.088
Not Using Events or Tokens 158593 45.59% 24.46 77.23% 0.088 0.3067 -0.268
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12656 9.32% 38.55 91.66% 0.296 0.1843 0.125
Start of Game Growth 18611 11.27% 37.0 90.2% 0.365 -0.3363 0.068
Unlimited Undo 35133 31.83% 33.25 83.38% 0.101 -0.5935 0.937
Using Tokens but Not Events 28815 33.35% 33.67 80.35% 0.581 0.5231 0.264

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 21476 100.0% 37.55 100.0% -0.066 -0.2008 0.251
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6457 100.0% 31.88 100.0% -0.383 -0.3504 -0.642
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4127 100.0% 33.12 100.0% -0.105 -0.2425 -0.25
Downpour Drenches the World 173 100.0% 33.96 100.0% -0.5 -0.1667 -0.296
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7374 100.0% 37.83 100.0% 0.106 -0.313 0.1
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4295 100.0% 34.27 100.0% 0.21 -0.3713 -0.426
Finder of Paths Unseen 83 100.0% 33.82 100.0% 0.9 1.2917 0.616
Fractured Days Split the Sky 967 100.0% 46.77 100.0% -0.572 -0.5277 0.516
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 672 100.0% 44.59 100.0% -0.108 -0.1125 -0.451
Heart of the Wildfire 7222 100.0% 37.88 100.0% -0.178 0.0624 0.531
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15274 100.0% 41.07 100.0% 0.564 0.0475 0.151
Lightning's Swift Strike 33032 105.35% 33.8 101.13% 0.42 0.6546 0.421
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 32 33.33% 34.81 84.38% 0.296 -0.5662 0.455
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 920 41.16% 49.04 85.0% 0.282 -0.3156 1.075
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1847 34.2% 54.91 87.49% 0.879 0.5412 1.054
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2073 100.0% 38.01 100.0% -0.143 -0.3662 -0.337
Many Minds Move as One 1094 100.0% 38.6 100.0% 0.561 -0.0212 0.469
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 44984 100.0% 39.04 100.0% 0.674 0.3734 0.444
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4760 100.0% 37.98 100.0% -0.109 -0.118 0.069
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9184 100.0% 38.78 100.0% 0.422 0.4043 -0.148
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10360 103.22% 26.32 101.27% -0.168 0.276 -0.302
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 18 11.11% 33.11 94.44% 0.13 0.2312 0.162
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 11 40.0% 30.55 72.73% -0.747 -0.926 0.563
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 299 45.42% 37.36 76.59% 0.021 -0.0058 -0.587
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 287 45.88% 37.81 79.79% -0.176 0.024 0.241
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7134 100.0% 39.39 100.0% 0.479 0.2013 0.315
Shifting Memory of Ages 569 100.0% 35.99 100.0% 0.05 0.0757 -0.161
Shroud of Silent Mist 632 100.0% 34.35 100.0% -0.969 -0.7055 -0.629
Starlight Seeks its Form 670 100.0% 38.73 100.0% 0.177 -0.0156 -0.017
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2873 100.0% 37.0 100.0% -0.008 -0.1803 -0.392
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5504 100.0% 38.75 100.0% 0.36 0.4658 0.19
Thunderspeaker 18646 100.0% 36.89 100.0% -0.04 -0.0735 -0.312
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1319 100.0% 33.6 100.0% -0.003 -0.0446 -0.56
Vital Strength of the Earth 18129 100.9% 27.8 100.4% -0.393 0.3969 -0.722
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 27 19.23% 29.89 88.89% -0.291 0.1675 0.286
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 229 34.26% 31.0 69.87% -0.597 0.4516 -1.452
Volcano Looming High 1177 100.0% 37.51 100.0% -0.85 -0.8356 -0.054

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 69.65%
Flash Floods 94.58%
River's Bounty 94.96%
Wash Away 88.3%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 79961 22.6 43.19%
II 183284 31.02 83.45%
III 65949 34.58 84.27%
IV 15359 37.82 98.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34525
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 53564
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 145823
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14841
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6463
Lose: Adversary condition 17697
Win: Sacrifice victory 800
Lose: Scenario condition 2376
Win: Scenario condition 8680
Lose: Blight pool ran out 56761
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3023

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.894 Win Model: -0.122

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.337 Win Model: 0.225
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 201517 51.52% 27.04 73.06%
2 84522 43.33% 32.93 75.26%
3 28515 36.69% 35.38 79.66%
4 28707 29.04% 40.03 82.15%
5 203 21.98% 47.59 92.12%
6 1089 20.15% 37.22 83.93%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)