Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 24 25.0% 25.58 79.17% -0.601 -0.8032 0.0
Blitz 0 3381 40.21% 32.25 70.78% -0.082 0.1758 -0.245
Dahan Insurrection 4 6270 30.52% 55.55 76.95% 0.015 0.4282 0.447
Despicable Theft 2 247 43.32% 35.81 82.19% -0.119 0.3274 0.212
Elemental Invocation 1 212 55.19% 32.41 64.15% -0.333 0.1532 -1.102
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9447 12.23% 45.66 80.44% -0.112 0.1939 0.591
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2032 36.0% 42.41 79.13% -0.134 0.0484 -0.71
Rituals of Terror 3 1560 48.08% 54.26 73.78% 1.312 1.4335 0.834
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 421 77.38% 35.32 51.54% 0.01 0.4253 -0.44
Second Wave 0 6427 48.99% 28.84 71.15% -0.35 0.2159 -0.735
The Great River 3 288 56.45% 32.23 56.25% -1.728 -0.3302 -1.651
Varied Terrains 2 13 53.85% 27.08 61.54% -1.027 -0.5013 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 1349 48.45% 36.15 64.34% -0.731 0.4304 -0.415

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 191730 51.15% 26.6 73.72% -0.172 0.8438 -0.43
1 Thematic 7590 56.75% 36.0 58.02% -0.524 0.6486 -0.341
2 Archipelago 58 51.72% 56.91 77.59% 0.822 1.806 0.16
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 53439 43.37% 32.08 75.55% -0.249 0.5028 0.205
2 Coastline 8897 41.34% 32.01 77.04% -0.036 0.5664 -0.153
2 Fragment 1418 49.18% 26.63 70.17% -0.225 0.2228 0.143
2 Heart 702 50.74% 26.63 71.08% -0.637 -0.0985 -0.102
2 Opposite Shores 12226 43.01% 34.74 76.47% -0.262 0.7305 -0.044
2 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Thematic 4549 45.37% 44.42 64.52% 0.014 0.7129 -0.017
2 Top to Top 2592 43.08% 34.29 77.01% -0.225 0.2854 0.07
3 Archipelago 38 36.84% 38.84 92.11% 0.289 0.462 -0.159
3 Coastline 330 23.46% 46.7 89.39% 0.54 -0.2432 1.016
3 Other 1173 39.25% 32.88 79.11% -0.67 -0.7057 0.091
3 Round (Default) 25680 36.51% 35.15 80.1% -0.206 0.3888 -0.304
3 Sunrise 116 39.29% 33.16 83.62% 0.12 0.1568 -0.168
3 Thematic 997 46.38% 40.65 61.89% -0.523 -0.5604 -0.175
4 Archipelago 40 33.33% 45.77 95.0% 0.226 -0.4854 0.16
4 Coastline 219 19.44% 51.68 83.11% 0.489 0.6061 0.892
4 Leaf 106 33.01% 35.73 83.02% 0.0 0.5626 -0.12
4 Other 804 33.25% 36.66 82.34% -0.244 -0.4981 -0.247
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.444 0.2564 0.219
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 5129 29.26% 51.56 76.95% -0.952 -0.4231 -0.134
4 Trapezoid (Default) 22116 29.15% 37.35 83.18% -0.029 -0.0561 -0.13
5 Archipelago 9 11.11% 46.56 88.89% 0.008 -0.5712 0.0
5 Coastline 51 8.16% 63.94 100.0% 0.412 -0.1529 0.992
5 Other 320 30.87% 44.42 90.63% 0.013 0.1809 0.318
5 Thematic 34 29.41% 59.09 82.35% -0.11 -0.3864 1.1
6 Archipelago 24 14.29% 46.0 91.67% 0.048 -0.2082 -0.261
6 Coastline 25 5.56% 55.16 96.0% -0.397 -0.9857 0.184
6 Other 189 21.43% 38.01 80.42% -0.086 0.723 -1.069
6 Star 60 22.03% 39.63 76.67% 0.174 0.9572 -1.353
6 Thematic 282 21.99% 37.55 78.72% -1.308 -1.5867 -0.882
6 Two Centers (Default) 422 20.19% 35.09 90.05% -0.267 -0.3606 -0.649
7 Archipelago 7 28.57% 36.71 85.71% 0.017 -0.5606 -0.792
7 Other 6 50.0% 43.67 50.0% 0.366 -0.7857 -0.301

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 7584 32.63 53.57% -1.988 -0.085 -0.539
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6708 34.65 56.62% -1.571 0.1592 -0.272
All Things Weaken 2619 34.85 54.68% -1.948 0.0378 -0.46
Back Against the Wall 6544 32.64 50.83% -2.118 -0.3019 -0.819
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7058 29.51 47.85% -2.565 -0.5144 -0.698
Downward Spiral 27639 25.26 54.46% -2.216 -0.2234 -0.66
Erosion of Will 7263 31.0 48.77% -2.151 -0.0676 -0.638
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1167 42.04 79.69% 0.099 0.5405 0.054
Memory Fades to Dust 27979 24.69 50.37% -2.464 -0.3799 -0.793
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2400 32.54 51.21% -2.184 -0.2461 -0.719
Promising Farmlands 7230 29.45 46.75% -2.633 -0.5875 -0.951
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 711 42.25 85.94% 0.313 0.738 0.432
Thriving Communities 2469 32.05 49.53% -1.794 0.1896 -0.692
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 -0.1175 -0.725
Unnatural Proliferation 2704 34.44 51.85% -1.98 -0.016 -0.709
Untended Land Crumbles 2529 33.35 51.48% -2.717 -0.7236 -0.639

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 115824 40.6% 31.81 75.23% -0.431 0.3667 0.511
B 91186 40.67% 31.29 75.24% -0.694 0.05 0.425
C 145411 41.57% 29.71 81.86% 0.389 0.9574 0.317
D 89489 41.04% 30.74 74.16% -0.699 0.0968 0.314
E 15455 44.69% 36.7 75.93% -0.753 -0.1055 0.544
F 24853 42.18% 34.93 75.98% -0.423 0.301 0.368
G 25215 40.96% 37.07 78.02% -0.201 0.5305 1.183
H 25438 40.54% 36.16 77.26% -0.648 0.0648 0.818
East 14779 42.8% 45.08 66.53% -1.001 -0.232 -0.453
Northeast 8967 38.58% 46.73 69.59% -0.478 0.382 -0.117
Northwest 7683 35.47% 47.76 71.61% -0.241 0.8357 -0.471
Southeast 1333 39.8% 40.71 70.59% -0.575 0.1317 -1.32
Southwest 1131 38.18% 38.85 70.2% -0.131 0.9944 0.34
West 11852 39.16% 45.54 68.5% -0.291 0.6633 0.212

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 83664 0.0% 22.25 79.01% -1.929 0.2005 -1.071
Not Using Events or Tokens 157047 45.57% 24.45 77.25% 0.123 0.2976 -0.277
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12544 9.21% 38.53 91.69% 0.432 0.2895 0.082
Start of Game Growth 18444 11.25% 36.97 90.21% 0.483 -0.2778 0.098
Unlimited Undo 34823 31.83% 33.26 83.35% 0.348 -0.2562 0.935
Using Tokens but Not Events 28540 33.39% 33.66 80.31% 0.622 0.4656 0.257

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 21224 100.0% 37.56 100.0% 0.092 -0.0224 0.251
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6406 100.0% 31.84 100.0% -0.072 0.0236 -0.594
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4073 100.0% 33.16 100.0% -0.121 -0.2819 -0.243
Downpour Drenches the World 131 100.0% 31.9 100.0% -0.63 -0.3777 -0.227
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7312 100.0% 37.83 100.0% 0.196 -0.2416 0.103
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4253 100.0% 34.26 100.0% 0.209 -0.2789 -0.425
Finder of Paths Unseen 77 100.0% 32.31 100.0% 0.993 1.3569 0.482
Fractured Days Split the Sky 957 100.0% 46.88 100.0% -0.297 -0.2409 0.521
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 650 100.0% 44.68 100.0% 0.055 0.0235 -0.478
Heart of the Wildfire 7185 100.0% 37.89 100.0% -0.286 -0.1112 0.543
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15167 100.0% 41.03 100.0% 0.226 -0.2302 0.155
Lightning's Swift Strike 32700 105.29% 33.77 101.13% 0.288 0.5622 0.409
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 23 31.82% 29.13 78.26% -0.08 -0.8563 0.454
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 912 41.2% 49.11 84.87% 0.871 0.2285 1.07
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1814 34.55% 54.98 87.43% 1.022 0.7559 1.055
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2023 100.0% 38.13 100.0% -0.046 -0.3128 -0.328
Many Minds Move as One 1083 100.0% 38.56 100.0% -0.237 -0.84 0.454
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 44592 100.0% 39.03 100.0% 0.475 0.2901 0.445
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4705 100.0% 38.05 100.0% -0.102 -0.0811 0.069
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9110 100.0% 38.8 100.0% 0.557 0.5046 -0.132
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10279 103.18% 26.34 101.26% -0.214 0.1959 -0.297
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 13 7.69% 30.92 92.31% -0.19 -0.183 0.163
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 8 37.5% 31.88 75.0% -0.348 -0.6944 0.563
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 297 45.73% 37.4 76.43% -0.211 -0.1916 -0.583
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 285 45.49% 37.85 80.0% 0.217 0.3997 0.287
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7091 100.0% 39.4 100.0% 0.495 0.2087 0.314
Shifting Memory of Ages 560 100.0% 35.96 100.0% -0.605 -0.5303 -0.181
Shroud of Silent Mist 614 100.0% 34.4 100.0% -0.462 -0.2258 -0.635
Starlight Seeks its Form 644 100.0% 38.73 100.0% -0.077 -0.2159 -0.015
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2845 100.0% 37.07 100.0% 0.091 -0.0907 -0.381
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5432 100.0% 38.77 100.0% -0.134 0.0505 0.188
Thunderspeaker 18476 100.0% 36.89 100.0% -0.22 -0.1562 -0.311
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1305 100.0% 33.65 100.0% 0.281 0.1904 -0.559
Vital Strength of the Earth 17947 100.85% 27.77 100.4% -0.589 0.2194 -0.765
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 21 25.0% 31.1 90.48% 0.126 0.5126 0.299
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 224 35.07% 31.0 69.2% -0.727 0.4477 -1.457
Volcano Looming High 1163 100.0% 37.56 100.0% -0.507 -0.5109 -0.06

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 69.63%
Flash Floods 94.57%
River's Bounty 94.96%
Wash Away 88.28%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 79151 22.56 43.2%
II 181692 30.98 83.45%
III 65357 34.53 84.27%
IV 15218 37.77 98.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34184
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 53082
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 144535
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14709
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6395
Lose: Adversary condition 17517
Win: Sacrifice victory 792
Lose: Scenario condition 2362
Win: Scenario condition 8619
Lose: Blight pool ran out 56224
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2999

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.137 Win Model: -0.102

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.285 Win Model: 0.177
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 199621 51.5% 27.04 73.11%
2 83871 43.31% 32.94 75.24%
3 28243 36.76% 35.35 79.57%
4 28493 29.12% 40.04 82.11%
5 185 21.69% 46.8 91.35%
6 1005 20.33% 37.41 84.28%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)