Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3594 38.3% 32.36 -0.013 71.04% -0.331 0.2411
Dahan Insurrection 4 7756 31.18% 53.79 0.014 76.64% 0.017 0.4175
Elemental Invocation 1 78 46.15% 30.47 -0.048 64.1% -0.782 -0.3168
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 11536 12.58% 43.66 0.016 79.75% -0.269 0.1061
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2160 45.48% 38.34 -0.004 74.72% -0.144 0.3026
Rituals of Terror 3 1595 45.61% 43.59 0.007 73.17% 0.123 0.7455
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 594 79.32% 34.52 -0.094 48.48% -0.711 -0.0871
Second Wave 0 7580 50.33% 28.95 -0.024 70.12% -0.579 -0.1601
The Great River 3 201 49.25% 31.96 -0.132 51.24% -2.053 -0.5679
Ward the Shores 2 1758 48.0% 36.26 -0.053 62.74% -0.782 0.2487

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 140968 50.91% 26.72 -0.011 72.98% -1.688 -1.3337
1 Thematic 6032 55.76% 37.21 -0.049 57.91% -1.668 -1.171
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 41034 43.4% 32.12 0.007 75.44% -0.72 -0.5304
2 Coastline 6668 41.34% 31.84 0.009 76.35% -0.733 -0.5978
2 Fragment 1080 47.79% 26.54 -0.02 71.02% -1.107 -0.681
2 Heart 543 50.83% 27.1 -0.008 72.56% -0.966 -0.6758
2 Opposite Shores 9669 41.27% 34.88 0.014 76.92% -0.689 -0.4624
2 Thematic 3782 44.07% 41.25 -0.031 64.2% -0.843 -0.7986
2 Top to Top 1915 42.34% 33.6 0.018 77.08% -0.572 -0.4555
3 Coastline 278 24.18% 47.17 0.05 87.77% 0.644 0.6065
3 Other 910 41.06% 33.07 0.008 77.69% -0.125 0.2768
3 Round (Default) 19990 37.26% 34.96 0.018 79.29% 0.193 0.2243
3 Sunrise 100 43.88% 31.96 0.024 81.0% 0.192 -0.0611
3 Thematic 826 48.34% 39.88 -0.048 60.41% -0.16 -0.4993
4 Coastline 119 24.14% 43.13 -0.002 75.63% 0.537 0.6593
4 Leaf 93 35.16% 34.41 0.005 79.57% 0.513 0.5925
4 Other 668 35.25% 36.9 0.023 82.63% 0.85 0.9307
4 Reverse Snake 7 0.0% 38.14 0.049 100.0% 0.451 -0.3413
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 0.064 100.0% 0.29 0.4154
4 Thematic 4110 32.52% 48.99 -0.008 73.65% 0.808 -0.2698
4 Trapezoid (Default) 17406 30.22% 37.09 0.021 82.42% 0.995 0.9622
5 Coastline 2 50.0% 54.5 0.101 100.0% 0.313 0.2628
5 Other 127 26.98% 42.39 0.086 96.06% 2.362 2.1452
5 Thematic 17 29.41% 56.18 0.118 100.0% 1.863 -0.9043

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6071 32.4 -0.111 53.07% -1.931 0.1371
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5374 34.46 -0.096 56.55% -1.794 0.1223
All Things Weaken 1683 32.92 -0.108 52.94% -1.869 0.2906
Back Against the Wall 5289 32.53 -0.124 50.75% -2.046 0.0464
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5630 29.37 -0.138 47.64% -2.164 0.0572
Downward Spiral 20944 25.52 -0.122 54.02% -2.174 -0.1598
Erosion of Will 5810 30.78 -0.136 48.28% -2.165 0.0465
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 708 39.86 0.007 77.4% -0.701 0.011
Memory Fades to Dust 21162 24.8 -0.143 49.85% -2.362 -0.1467
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1615 31.12 -0.123 49.91% -2.02 -0.0001
Promising Farmlands 5890 29.13 -0.145 46.64% -2.258 -0.0435
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 444 40.14 0.03 82.66% -0.413 0.004
Thriving Communities 1618 30.21 -0.14 46.85% -2.217 -0.1103
Tipping Point 3618 29.24 -0.143 46.74% -2.239 -0.023
Unnatural Proliferation 1838 32.87 -0.118 51.09% -1.976 0.1041
Untended Land Crumbles 1628 31.78 -0.122 50.06% -2.011 0.0842

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 60204 41.86% 31.35 -0.002 73.66% 0.613 -0.4602
B 36938 45.43% 29.01 -0.015 71.54% 0.459 -0.7049
C 74541 46.46% 27.81 0.042 81.85% 1.32 -0.0767
D 36791 46.84% 28.0 -0.027 69.14% 0.327 -0.8307
E 4545 52.09% 33.59 -0.01 69.7% 0.616 -0.6406
F 8670 49.77% 32.08 -0.013 70.45% 0.529 -0.697
G 9031 44.71% 34.98 0.001 73.45% 0.677 -0.536
H 9807 43.99% 35.24 0.004 74.14% 0.695 -0.5262
East 7048 43.14% 43.32 -0.028 66.03% 0.138 -0.7982
Northeast 2157 54.47% 37.58 -0.053 57.26% 0.063 -0.8066
Northwest 1794 49.03% 38.69 -0.039 60.48% 0.147 -0.7982
Southeast 339 46.15% 38.94 -0.025 64.6% 0.191 -0.7922
Southwest 255 45.28% 33.96 -0.024 64.31% 0.146 -0.479
West 2656 41.66% 46.81 -0.037 65.25% 0.066 -0.5993

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 58432 0.0% 22.24 -0.015 78.62% -1.52 0.519
Not Using Events or Tokens 110616 45.83% 24.49 0.004 76.82% -0.042 0.178
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10270 10.03% 38.4 0.047 91.37% 0.788 0.0824
Start of Game Growth 14666 11.46% 36.91 0.048 89.9% 0.377 -0.0819
Unlimited Undo 27084 31.2% 33.25 0.029 82.96% 0.269 -0.133
Using Tokens but Not Events 22831 34.25% 32.86 0.02 79.3% 0.093 0.0468

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 16178 28.9% 37.25 0.018 80.88% -0.055 0.0915
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5345 50.07% 32.52 -0.019 71.77% -0.405 -0.1688
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2997 35.23% 33.69 0.017 79.98% 0.016 -0.0701
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5088 29.03% 37.6 0.028 82.74% 0.141 -0.2284
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3235 34.9% 33.93 0.013 79.23% -0.074 -0.3071
Fractured Days Split the Sky 682 36.87% 42.49 0.044 84.02% 0.451 0.7847
Heart of the Wildfire 6030 50.12% 37.22 -0.002 73.23% -0.059 0.2884
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12462 35.83% 40.14 0.03 81.05% 0.272 -0.0262
Lightning's Swift Strike 26483 34.82% 34.67 0.017 79.43% 0.077 0.3455
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 957 44.88% 36.83 0.005 75.13% -0.042 -0.4027
Many Minds Move as One 759 43.24% 38.3 0.039 82.08% 0.431 -0.0819
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 34652 38.51% 38.59 0.029 79.19% 0.405 0.2075
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3383 35.49% 37.52 0.019 79.01% 0.11 0.1577
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7605 35.87% 38.06 0.003 75.99% -0.155 -0.0054
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8756 47.49% 27.63 -0.024 72.5% -0.46 -0.011
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5954 35.84% 38.93 0.013 78.49% 0.032 -0.033
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2208 43.91% 35.47 -0.002 73.51% -0.193 -0.2115
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3910 30.85% 38.72 0.026 82.05% 0.064 0.2789
Thunderspeaker 14289 37.33% 36.7 0.003 76.95% -0.17 -0.1097
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1089 63.25% 33.32 -0.03 66.21% -0.329 -0.2928
Vital Strength of the Earth 13866 30.72% 28.2 -0.018 75.82% -0.678 0.1862
Volcano Looming High 334 50.15% 36.48 -0.002 72.16% -0.012 -0.1132

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 66.96%
Flash Floods 94.27%
River's Bounty 94.76%
Wash Away 87.85%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 60404 22.34 42.47%
II 133751 30.71 82.73%
III 50204 34.23 84.43%
IV 11990 37.48 98.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 17015
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27219
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 73024
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7638
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4881
Lose: Adversary condition 13998
Win: Sacrifice victory 504
Lose: Scenario condition 2012
Win: Scenario condition 7044
Lose: Blight pool ran out 42532
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2376

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.621 Win Model: -0.149

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.008 Win Model: -0.561
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 147031 51.19% 27.15 72.37%
2 64818 43.03% 32.97 75.08%
3 22056 37.64% 35.16 78.62%
4 22444 30.69% 39.32 80.83%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.013 Win Model: -0.37
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 198050 32.87 73.35%
Power Progression 58299 21.89 77.69%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)