Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 71 21.43% 25.39 70.42% 0.329 0.0448 -1.082
Blitz 0 3813 38.86% 32.45 70.89% 0.408 0.568 0.05
Dahan Insurrection 4 6911 29.91% 55.0 76.27% 0.503 0.1232 0.424
Despicable Theft 2 295 43.69% 33.76 76.61% -0.7 0.0678 0.063
Elemental Invocation 1 242 55.37% 32.31 65.7% 1.225 1.9495 -1.076
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10290 12.12% 45.54 80.29% 1.106 0.4746 0.625
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2275 33.84% 43.09 79.91% 0.001 0.608 -0.727
Rituals of Terror 3 1771 49.2% 55.97 71.94% 0.895 1.055 0.826
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 450 76.39% 34.86 51.33% -1.208 -0.1458 -0.488
Second Wave 0 6913 48.61% 28.63 70.9% 0.445 0.5227 -0.695
The Great River 3 330 56.53% 30.75 53.64% -0.863 0.3606 -1.597
Varied Terrains 2 49 63.27% 22.69 44.9% -0.541 0.0828 -0.882
Ward the Shores 2 1412 48.09% 35.96 64.66% 0.097 1.1391 -0.351

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 210846 50.97% 26.11 72.42% 0.664 0.7694 -0.359
1 Thematic 7865 56.52% 35.87 57.91% 0.055 0.5834 -0.265
2 Archipelago 83 40.96% 49.47 71.08% -0.477 -0.1821 0.035
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 58375 43.13% 31.43 74.23% 0.487 0.5937 0.275
2 Coastline 9785 40.52% 31.26 75.97% 0.784 0.6973 -0.107
2 Fragment 1557 49.36% 25.92 69.17% 0.401 0.2041 0.3
2 Heart 791 50.8% 26.05 69.79% 0.583 0.2978 -0.235
2 Opposite Shores 13168 43.2% 34.03 75.33% 0.676 0.7297 -0.042
2 Thematic 4817 45.37% 45.24 63.84% -0.265 0.1845 -0.014
2 Top to Top 2794 43.09% 33.9 76.38% 0.437 0.3442 0.257
3 Archipelago 52 38.46% 39.1 90.38% 0.162 -1.4461 0.266
3 Coastline 354 24.06% 45.27 88.14% 0.615 0.1039 0.877
3 Other 1273 38.81% 32.2 78.71% 0.795 1.3676 0.235
3 Round (Default) 27859 36.08% 34.74 79.64% 0.78 0.666 -0.235
3 Sunrise 121 39.66% 32.74 81.82% -0.395 -0.1119 0.081
3 Thematic 1066 44.95% 40.42 62.2% -0.091 -0.086 -0.219
4 Archipelago 51 28.57% 41.51 88.24% 0.029 -0.6882 -0.638
4 Coastline 232 20.18% 50.19 81.9% -0.393 -0.1731 0.933
4 Leaf 126 36.07% 34.75 82.54% 0.788 0.415 -0.098
4 Other 867 33.29% 35.41 80.97% 0.528 -0.5152 -0.157
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.322
4 Snake 5 40.0% 36.4 100.0% 0.466 0.1157 0.0
4 Thematic 5528 27.99% 51.3 76.88% -1.062 -1.3114 -0.242
4 Trapezoid (Default) 24288 28.15% 36.56 82.44% 0.7 0.5729 -0.051
5 Archipelago 13 15.38% 42.77 92.31% 0.344 -0.8193 0.037
5 Coastline 110 6.54% 60.18 91.82% 0.426 -0.3457 -0.284
5 Other 442 32.68% 42.0 87.78% 0.553 0.2487 0.316
5 Thematic 45 26.67% 54.38 82.22% -0.695 -0.638 0.974
6 Archipelago 45 13.51% 46.27 84.44% -0.055 0.238 -0.341
6 Coastline 64 4.88% 45.27 93.75% 0.558 -0.1374 -0.192
6 Other 347 19.44% 41.64 79.83% -0.027 -0.4434 -0.928
6 Star 85 20.24% 37.74 74.12% -1.078 -1.0553 -1.581
6 Thematic 458 22.69% 40.05 73.8% -1.169 -0.8738 -0.488
6 Two Centers (Default) 699 16.37% 31.26 84.55% -0.495 -0.4014 -1.153
7 Archipelago 10 30.0% 32.8 80.0% -0.698 -0.7822 -0.683
7 Other 9 42.86% 41.33 55.56% -0.162 -0.7221 -0.452

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8053 32.36 53.25% -0.493 -0.2627 -0.441
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7118 34.4 56.55% -0.015 -0.0886 -0.208
All Things Weaken 2928 34.61 54.37% -0.285 0.0833 -0.365
Attenuated Essence 54 32.28 46.3% -0.065 0.0253 -0.715
Back Against the Wall 6923 32.49 50.9% 0.052 0.1037 -0.737
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 71 24.11 40.85% -0.253 -0.0356 -1.257
Burn Brightest Before the End 56 29.41 44.64% -0.33 -0.1613 -0.298
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7475 29.27 47.77% -0.563 -0.1594 -0.608
Downward Spiral 30003 24.94 53.95% -0.372 -0.1314 -0.615
Erosion of Will 7679 30.82 48.53% -0.826 -0.5219 -0.567
Intensifying Exploitation 76 29.43 43.42% -0.261 0.0172 -0.011
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1279 41.85 79.91% 0.721 0.2327 0.181
Memory Fades to Dust 30440 24.42 50.01% -0.406 -0.0671 -0.718
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2707 32.28 51.02% -0.24 -0.0161 -0.637
Promising Farmlands 7660 29.27 46.66% -0.525 -0.0658 -0.863
Shattered Fragments of Power 49 27.78 42.86% -0.312 -0.278 -0.903
Slow Dissolution of Will 51 23.76 37.25% -0.45 -0.0547 -1.092
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 805 42.33 84.84% 0.919 0.2289 0.422
The Border of Life and Death 27 37.7 66.67% 0.51 0.1765 0.824
Thriving Communities 2755 31.59 48.97% -0.532 -0.1878 -0.628
Thriving Crops 20 30.0 60.0% 0.306 0.1186 -0.161
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 -0.1755 -0.634
Unnatural Proliferation 3049 34.23 51.56% -0.182 -0.0047 -0.567
Untended Land Crumbles 2830 32.79 51.24% -0.584 -0.3238 -0.554

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 126664 40.14% 31.25 74.16% -1.063 -0.2903 0.56
B 99532 40.18% 30.71 74.22% -1.12 -0.3651 0.506
C 159958 41.06% 29.15 80.58% -0.618 -0.0134 0.358
D 97843 40.48% 30.18 73.09% -1.186 -0.4575 0.366
E 18257 43.07% 35.67 75.26% -0.841 -0.2456 0.539
F 27944 41.45% 34.18 75.09% -1.044 -0.3854 0.399
G 28029 40.37% 36.29 77.29% -0.888 -0.2067 1.211
H 28412 39.87% 35.52 76.65% -0.692 -0.0975 0.871
East 15874 41.84% 45.22 66.4% -0.446 0.136 -0.269
Northeast 9733 37.23% 46.5 69.51% -0.281 0.4039 0.008
Northwest 8358 34.08% 47.56 71.54% -0.385 0.4448 -0.25
Southeast 1588 37.53% 40.91 69.96% -0.055 0.694 -1.2
Southwest 1378 36.44% 39.33 69.52% -0.727 0.2671 0.198
West 12799 38.22% 45.78 68.36% -0.431 0.5202 0.241

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 93240 0.0% 21.69 77.01% -0.299 0.4861 -1.029
Not Using Events or Tokens 175050 45.14% 23.87 75.43% -0.307 0.0503 -0.258
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13564 9.31% 38.43 90.86% 0.812 0.1749 0.108
Start of Game Growth 19888 11.2% 36.79 89.19% -0.416 -0.7123 0.065
Unlimited Undo 37774 31.69% 32.87 82.58% 0.235 0.2164 0.929
Using Tokens but Not Events 31234 33.13% 33.46 79.59% 0.348 0.3014 0.219

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 23386 100.0% 37.1 100.0% 0.242 0.0885 0.314
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6838 100.0% 31.35 100.0% -0.543 -0.4076 -0.576
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4614 100.0% 31.91 100.0% -0.274 -0.4037 -0.215
Downpour Drenches the World 398 100.0% 31.59 100.0% -0.096 0.0936 -0.57
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 263 100.0% 30.45 100.0% 0.131 -0.6645 -0.828
Eyes Watch From the Trees 8017 100.0% 37.14 100.0% 0.436 -0.1576 0.149
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4750 100.0% 34.41 100.0% 0.252 -0.2461 -0.346
Finder of Paths Unseen 190 100.0% 32.95 100.0% -0.511 0.1604 0.6
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1091 100.0% 45.82 100.0% 0.488 1.0601 0.441
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 825 100.0% 42.76 100.0% 0.245 0.1597 -0.403
Heart of the Wildfire 7668 100.0% 37.49 100.0% -0.677 -0.4352 0.45
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16483 100.0% 40.75 100.0% 0.015 -0.4262 0.206
Lightning's Swift Strike 36241 105.8% 32.89 101.37% -0.251 -0.0454 0.496
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 148 37.93% 41.27 77.03% 0.272 -0.2234 0.338
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 1031 40.35% 48.91 84.0% 0.664 0.5062 1.12
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2115 33.17% 53.92 85.86% 0.163 0.0404 1.085
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2435 100.0% 36.85 100.0% -0.832 -0.9697 -0.397
Many Minds Move as One 1257 100.0% 38.39 100.0% 0.994 0.7938 0.582
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 48504 100.0% 38.68 100.0% 0.211 0.1849 0.506
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 5200 100.0% 37.29 100.0% -0.184 -0.3473 0.142
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9732 100.0% 38.78 100.0% 0.168 -0.0881 -0.082
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 11402 103.42% 25.18 101.44% -0.833 -0.3323 -0.274
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 40 15.38% 29.23 85.0% -0.16 -0.2314 0.173
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 30 35.71% 28.7 73.33% -0.23 -0.2906 0.785
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 338 46.83% 36.28 76.04% 1.405 1.3586 -0.601
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 314 46.73% 37.11 78.03% -0.504 -0.3065 0.361
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7439 100.47% 39.03 100.2% 0.098 -0.0807 0.391
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 50 30.0% 28.54 70.0% 0.448 0.0266 -0.739
Shifting Memory of Ages 752 100.0% 34.44 100.0% -0.037 0.3263 -0.159
Shroud of Silent Mist 754 100.0% 32.76 100.0% 0.167 0.4183 -0.526
Starlight Seeks its Form 922 100.0% 36.39 100.0% -0.266 -0.5233 0.053
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3211 100.0% 35.94 100.0% -0.209 -0.694 -0.343
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 6009 100.0% 38.21 100.0% 0.097 0.1602 0.242
Thunderspeaker 20282 100.09% 36.47 100.07% 0.185 0.1683 -0.245
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 33 42.42% 21.18 54.55% -0.436 -0.5199 -0.76
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1398 100.0% 33.44 100.0% 0.438 0.5188 -0.459
Vital Strength of the Earth 20141 101.12% 27.13 100.56% -0.488 0.0452 -0.494
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 91 39.77% 29.78 73.63% -0.039 0.2124 1.102
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 275 33.85% 29.15 67.64% -0.504 0.3275 -1.495
Volcano Looming High 1369 100.0% 37.22 100.0% 0.216 0.1812 0.106

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 70.03%
Flash Floods 94.66%
River's Bounty 95.03%
Wash Away 88.46%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 90819 20.49 40.68%
II 196768 31.02 83.35%
III 70442 34.76 84.23%
IV 16375 38.06 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 36933
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57240
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 156508
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15789
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6105
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6893
Lose: Adversary condition 18656
Win: Sacrifice victory 890
Lose: Scenario condition 2472
Win: Scenario condition 9109
Lose: Blight pool ran out 60600
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3209

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.247 Win Model: -0.033

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.194 Win Model: 0.271
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 219280 51.3% 26.56 71.85%
2 91250 43.08% 32.26 74.07%
3 30625 36.32% 34.93 79.13%
4 31168 28.12% 39.27 81.47%
5 373 23.53% 44.42 86.6%
6 1708 18.58% 37.16 80.5%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)