Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4174 39.08% 31.95 -0.011 71.63% -0.284 0.282
Dahan Insurrection 4 8982 30.79% 54.13 0.013 76.86% -0.012 0.3885
Despicable Theft 2 208 42.79% 36.35 0.041 83.65% 0.222 0.4961
Elemental Invocation 1 315 53.82% 31.63 -0.065 59.05% -0.816 -0.3136
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 13599 12.6% 44.54 0.017 80.29% -0.242 0.1228
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2726 40.91% 40.47 -0.002 77.07% -0.129 0.3175
Rituals of Terror 3 1874 45.29% 43.41 0.008 73.85% 0.116 0.7609
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 639 79.37% 34.13 -0.095 48.51% -0.73 -0.0837
Second Wave 0 8935 49.75% 29.04 -0.023 70.65% -0.562 -0.1327
The Great River 3 358 55.31% 31.51 -0.118 53.63% -1.787 -0.3134
Ward the Shores 2 2001 48.4% 36.04 -0.051 63.22% -0.776 0.2557

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 171074 51.06% 26.7 -0.01 73.3% -1.4 -1.3136
1 Thematic 7321 56.31% 36.2 -0.05 58.22% -1.361 -1.0836
2 Archipelago 22 31.82% 34.91 0.084 95.45% 0.314 0.3206
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 49131 43.66% 32.0 0.006 75.49% -0.668 -0.6418
2 Coastline 8139 41.32% 31.74 0.009 76.51% -0.672 -0.6969
2 Fragment 1295 49.33% 26.42 -0.026 69.73% -1.101 -0.8788
2 Heart 663 50.93% 27.07 -0.013 71.49% -0.931 -0.8313
2 Opposite Shores 11599 41.41% 34.54 0.011 76.78% -0.662 -0.5969
2 Thematic 4251 44.73% 41.25 -0.031 64.29% -0.7 -0.7664
2 Top to Top 2288 42.21% 33.66 0.019 77.58% -0.502 -0.5706
3 Archipelago 11 27.27% 43.27 0.092 100.0% 0.705 1.5098
3 Coastline 327 25.86% 45.47 0.045 86.24% 0.386 0.2353
3 Other 1160 40.0% 33.36 0.013 79.05% -0.209 -0.0368
3 Round (Default) 24224 36.9% 34.88 0.018 79.6% 0.017 -0.0219
3 Sunrise 114 42.86% 32.12 0.019 80.7% -0.046 -0.3056
3 Thematic 952 49.47% 39.46 -0.051 59.87% -0.309 -0.6752
4 Archipelago 15 26.67% 50.47 0.094 100.0% 1.379 1.9264
4 Coastline 208 20.98% 48.49 0.029 82.21% 0.448 0.5675
4 Leaf 110 34.91% 34.35 0.005 80.0% 0.21 0.2822
4 Other 817 35.21% 37.06 0.025 83.23% 0.564 0.4944
4 Reverse Snake 8 0.0% 36.5 0.049 100.0% 0.371 -0.4307
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 0.065 100.0% 0.213 0.3395
4 Thematic 5143 30.04% 50.8 -0.002 76.26% 0.549 -0.4476
4 Trapezoid (Default) 21045 30.28% 37.11 0.02 82.46% 0.581 0.5894
5 Archipelago 16 56.25% 45.94 0.006 81.25% -0.098 1.0618
5 Coastline 5 20.0% 69.6 0.111 100.0% 0.476 0.2864
5 Other 203 33.17% 44.55 0.082 94.58% 1.951 1.4902
5 Thematic 37 21.62% 55.65 0.07 91.89% 1.295 -1.0962
6 Archipelago 3 100.0% 53.0 -0.05 66.67% -0.222 0.1434
6 Other 1 100.0% 27.0 0.093 100.0% 0.127 -0.0504
6 Thematic 1 0.0% 37.0 0.04 100.0% 0.033 -0.1715

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7143 32.31 -0.112 53.03% -1.949 0.1202
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6346 34.37 -0.097 56.35% -1.814 0.0987
All Things Weaken 2458 33.03 -0.108 53.34% -1.876 0.2836
Back Against the Wall 6235 32.49 -0.125 50.7% -2.064 0.0226
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6665 29.28 -0.137 47.91% -2.173 0.0488
Downward Spiral 24842 25.3 -0.123 54.03% -2.2 -0.1787
Erosion of Will 6876 30.8 -0.136 48.41% -2.175 0.0331
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1071 39.99 0.014 79.27% -0.612 0.0671
Memory Fades to Dust 25025 24.72 -0.143 50.12% -2.381 -0.1658
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2376 31.21 -0.123 50.59% -2.055 -0.0338
Promising Farmlands 6880 29.25 -0.144 46.93% -2.251 -0.043
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 685 39.75 0.031 82.92% -0.389 0.0227
Thriving Communities 2387 30.4 -0.133 48.64% -2.159 -0.0711
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 -0.144 46.73% -2.253 -0.0283
Unnatural Proliferation 2633 32.7 -0.118 51.61% -2.003 0.0775
Untended Land Crumbles 2412 31.62 -0.123 50.25% -2.044 0.0583

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 72130 41.85% 31.44 -0.002 73.84% 0.579 -0.1085
B 43559 45.58% 28.73 -0.017 71.45% 0.409 -0.3746
C 90283 46.54% 27.7 0.043 82.21% 1.312 0.2993
D 43191 47.05% 27.79 -0.029 69.1% 0.281 -0.4962
E 6848 51.2% 33.27 -0.007 71.1% 0.609 -0.2856
F 11400 49.44% 31.75 -0.015 70.44% 0.462 -0.3789
G 11831 45.02% 34.89 0.004 74.25% 0.671 -0.1607
H 12634 44.14% 34.77 0.004 74.59% 0.675 -0.1642
East 8122 42.95% 43.85 -0.029 66.42% 0.033 -0.5436
Northeast 2521 55.31% 37.22 -0.055 56.8% -0.033 -0.5575
Northwest 1997 49.41% 38.71 -0.038 60.79% 0.079 -0.5165
Southeast 474 44.82% 39.0 -0.021 66.03% 0.137 -0.4921
Southwest 339 48.22% 32.86 -0.039 60.77% -0.031 -0.2299
West 3286 37.84% 48.52 -0.033 68.47% -0.011 -0.3384

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 71863 0.0% 22.24 -0.014 78.87% -1.519 0.5334
Not Using Events or Tokens 134961 45.66% 24.45 0.005 77.04% -0.028 0.1864
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12127 9.7% 39.09 0.045 91.52% 0.749 0.0629
Start of Game Growth 17542 11.44% 37.35 0.048 90.15% 0.406 -0.0626
Unlimited Undo 32295 31.74% 33.25 0.029 83.03% 0.279 -0.1439
Using Tokens but Not Events 27190 33.19% 33.0 0.022 80.18% 0.114 0.0629

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 19172 28.42% 37.27 0.018 81.29% -0.042 0.0623
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6054 50.16% 32.17 -0.019 71.95% -0.391 -0.1927
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3751 35.01% 33.37 0.014 79.98% -0.022 -0.1354
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6725 28.41% 37.22 0.031 83.87% 0.187 -0.217
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4026 34.87% 34.16 0.017 80.4% 0.017 -0.2885
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1097 34.34% 46.69 0.044 84.05% 0.488 0.8363
Heart of the Wildfire 6783 50.25% 37.26 -0.003 73.24% -0.051 0.2681
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 14838 35.12% 40.94 0.03 81.62% 0.311 -0.0318
Lightning's Swift Strike 31930 34.61% 34.79 0.016 79.45% 0.085 0.3106
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1907 43.67% 37.29 0.007 76.25% -0.068 -0.3547
Many Minds Move as One 1097 42.57% 37.83 0.035 81.95% 0.397 -0.1356
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 41044 38.31% 38.61 0.029 79.38% 0.407 0.183
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4290 34.12% 37.63 0.019 79.63% 0.103 0.1172
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 8837 34.96% 38.71 0.005 77.06% -0.11 -0.0071
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10336 47.12% 27.47 -0.024 72.67% -0.454 -0.049
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6839 35.84% 39.43 0.013 78.97% 0.055 -0.0571
Shifting Memory of Ages 308 49.03% 35.47 -0.009 72.4% -0.236 -0.1118
Shroud of Silent Mist 613 47.6% 34.84 0.009 77.49% -0.016 0.0399
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2859 43.81% 35.86 -0.004 73.52% -0.191 -0.2509
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4839 31.51% 38.65 0.026 82.43% 0.112 0.2722
Thunderspeaker 17100 36.38% 37.04 0.004 77.72% -0.138 -0.1138
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1412 63.66% 33.28 -0.029 66.36% -0.268 -0.2961
Vital Strength of the Earth 16431 30.75% 27.87 -0.019 75.87% -0.673 0.1715
Volcano Looming High 987 54.72% 36.41 0.003 73.76% 0.039 0.0495

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 64.98%
Flash Floods 94.29%
River's Bounty 94.72%
Wash Away 87.74%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 72100 22.37 42.61%
II 162603 30.88 82.92%
III 60890 34.39 84.49%
IV 14595 37.55 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 22079
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 35977
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 96304
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10173
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5865
Lose: Adversary condition 16620
Win: Sacrifice victory 624
Lose: Scenario condition 2344
Win: Scenario condition 8165
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51132
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2799

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.648 Win Model: -0.149

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.008 Win Model: -0.356
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 178476 51.37% 27.09 72.67%
2 77568 43.27% 32.81 75.16%
3 26725 37.27% 35.08 78.94%
4 27419 30.18% 39.82 81.42%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.014 Win Model: -0.415
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 238463 32.87 73.63%
Power Progression 71725 21.89 77.86%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)