Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 22.0% 27.2 72.0% 0.204 -0.2426 0.0
Blitz 0 3636 39.65% 32.71 71.45% 0.658 1.1151 -0.071
Dahan Insurrection 4 6619 30.19% 55.69 77.23% 0.614 0.6344 0.438
Despicable Theft 2 269 44.61% 35.62 80.67% 0.499 1.0114 0.263
Elemental Invocation 1 231 55.84% 32.21 64.5% -0.557 0.1418 -1.091
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9945 12.17% 45.68 80.58% 0.284 0.325 0.562
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2211 33.86% 43.41 80.37% 0.149 0.711 -0.682
Rituals of Terror 3 1662 49.24% 55.82 73.47% 0.714 0.4257 0.859
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 437 77.52% 35.68 52.4% 0.595 1.0257 -0.438
Second Wave 0 6681 48.89% 28.77 71.1% -0.472 -0.0102 -0.737
The Great River 3 311 58.06% 31.72 54.98% -1.555 0.2111 -1.759
Varied Terrains 2 25 60.0% 24.52 48.0% -0.679 0.1489 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 1394 48.35% 36.14 64.92% -0.507 0.237 -0.402

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 201531 51.21% 26.57 73.69% 0.301 0.8509 -0.393
1 Thematic 7742 56.66% 36.03 58.11% -0.203 0.7947 -0.285
2 Archipelago 67 46.27% 55.49 79.1% -0.144 0.4732 0.241
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 55935 43.29% 32.02 75.54% 0.089 0.4994 0.214
2 Coastline 9298 41.28% 31.84 77.04% 0.112 0.248 -0.144
2 Fragment 1484 49.57% 26.54 70.42% 0.228 0.2233 0.124
2 Heart 740 50.86% 26.5 71.08% -0.049 0.4264 -0.139
2 Opposite Shores 12693 43.33% 34.55 76.25% -0.188 0.1659 -0.079
2 Thematic 4684 45.55% 45.14 64.52% -0.239 0.6903 0.004
2 Top to Top 2716 43.4% 34.35 77.25% 0.173 0.2992 0.161
3 Archipelago 51 37.25% 38.57 90.2% -0.639 -0.4604 -0.174
3 Coastline 342 23.12% 46.01 89.47% -0.101 -0.5177 1.046
3 Other 1230 38.86% 32.62 79.51% 0.327 -0.3917 0.145
3 Round (Default) 26797 36.3% 35.16 80.42% 0.742 0.9359 -0.3
3 Sunrise 119 40.35% 33.07 82.35% 0.0 0.1488 0.048
3 Thematic 1044 45.82% 40.82 62.45% 0.17 0.1851 -0.227
4 Archipelago 46 31.11% 44.07 93.48% 0.04 -0.3797 -0.008
4 Coastline 231 20.26% 50.41 82.25% -0.289 -0.3614 0.777
4 Leaf 114 35.45% 35.69 83.33% -0.327 -0.4231 -0.144
4 Other 830 33.17% 36.36 82.41% 0.422 -0.1939 -0.296
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.335
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 0.5654 0.0
4 Thematic 5372 28.28% 51.93 77.87% 0.022 0.3044 -0.195
4 Trapezoid (Default) 23312 28.63% 37.19 83.48% 0.538 0.7259 -0.159
5 Archipelago 12 16.67% 44.25 91.67% 0.275 -0.1088 0.016
5 Coastline 94 7.69% 63.29 96.81% -0.64 -0.5324 0.341
5 Other 370 31.36% 44.01 90.0% -0.586 -1.2165 0.204
5 Thematic 41 29.27% 56.88 85.37% 0.246 -0.7289 1.068
6 Archipelago 42 14.71% 48.98 88.1% -0.426 -0.4967 -0.449
6 Coastline 43 10.0% 45.81 97.67% 0.362 -0.5869 0.139
6 Other 277 18.9% 40.82 81.95% 0.25 0.0083 -1.035
6 Star 79 21.79% 39.43 77.22% -0.525 0.0207 -1.556
6 Thematic 378 22.73% 41.52 77.51% -0.397 -0.3516 -0.446
6 Two Centers (Default) 572 17.25% 33.63 91.08% -0.274 0.1896 -0.789
7 Archipelago 9 33.33% 36.44 88.89% 0.019 -0.2017 -0.732
7 Other 9 42.86% 41.33 55.56% 0.026 -0.3342 -0.383

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 7869 32.57 53.64% -1.833 -0.1024 -0.516
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6965 34.55 56.67% -1.979 -0.403 -0.296
All Things Weaken 2808 34.87 54.81% -1.862 0.0162 -0.446
Back Against the Wall 6766 32.62 50.87% -2.085 -0.4483 -0.82
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7309 29.45 48.01% -1.844 -0.0012 -0.695
Downward Spiral 28964 25.22 54.48% -2.015 -0.3172 -0.682
Erosion of Will 7528 30.96 48.87% -2.202 -0.3016 -0.648
Intensifying Exploitation 1 16.0 0.0% -0.864 0.0252 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1235 42.09 80.08% 0.301 0.8013 0.069
Memory Fades to Dust 29401 24.67 50.45% -2.137 -0.2614 -0.789
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2580 32.63 51.43% -1.779 -0.0739 -0.705
Promising Farmlands 7481 29.44 46.85% -1.526 0.3494 -0.935
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 13.33 33.33% -1.442 0.0286 0.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 772 42.13 85.36% 0.302 0.5117 0.355
Thriving Communities 2657 31.87 49.34% -2.147 -0.2763 -0.703
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 0.0 -0.722
Unnatural Proliferation 2911 34.32 51.8% -1.9 -0.1458 -0.671
Untended Land Crumbles 2723 33.15 51.78% -1.687 0.1272 -0.624

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 121481 40.44% 31.77 75.3% -0.032 0.745 0.525
B 95497 40.5% 31.24 75.39% -0.218 0.4854 0.456
C 152828 41.36% 29.67 81.93% 0.553 1.0807 0.33
D 93768 40.82% 30.71 74.25% -0.493 0.242 0.339
E 16914 43.93% 36.48 76.43% -0.211 0.3733 0.536
F 26462 41.95% 34.82 76.19% -0.187 0.5203 0.392
G 26744 40.66% 36.87 78.23% -0.118 0.5244 1.186
H 27039 40.29% 36.05 77.5% 0.238 0.8828 0.835
East 15405 42.24% 45.52 67.02% -0.067 0.525 -0.413
Northeast 9414 37.72% 47.07 70.27% -0.858 -0.1813 -0.097
Northwest 8084 34.54% 48.19 72.41% 0.048 0.4862 -0.438
Southeast 1479 38.48% 41.51 70.99% -0.395 0.2686 -1.365
Southwest 1269 37.37% 39.94 70.76% 0.148 1.3191 0.278
West 12398 38.59% 46.1 69.11% 0.573 1.3903 0.261

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 88199 0.0% 22.23 78.92% -1.691 0.3845 -1.043
Not Using Events or Tokens 165869 45.59% 24.45 77.2% 0.136 0.3071 -0.264
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13184 9.28% 38.82 91.68% 1.005 -0.0545 0.085
Start of Game Growth 19310 11.2% 37.22 90.17% -0.024 -0.4463 0.041
Unlimited Undo 36512 31.87% 33.23 83.48% 0.516 0.101 0.923
Using Tokens but Not Events 29969 33.3% 33.7 80.33% 0.101 0.2162 0.251

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 22494 100.0% 37.56 100.0% 0.223 0.0435 0.298
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6639 100.0% 31.83 100.0% -0.452 -0.4371 -0.65
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4330 100.0% 32.86 100.0% -0.326 -0.5713 -0.265
Downpour Drenches the World 301 100.0% 33.72 100.0% -0.421 -0.0329 -0.648
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 9 100.0% 12.33 100.0% -1.87 -1.6351 -0.879
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7681 100.0% 37.67 100.0% 0.542 0.069 0.092
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4505 100.0% 34.59 100.0% 0.196 -0.2504 -0.367
Finder of Paths Unseen 135 100.0% 35.75 100.0% 0.002 0.3658 1.236
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1022 100.0% 46.77 100.0% -0.384 -0.2802 0.473
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 737 100.0% 44.42 100.0% -0.238 -0.3022 -0.454
Heart of the Wildfire 7436 100.0% 38.02 100.0% 0.223 0.4823 0.528
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15902 100.0% 41.19 100.0% 0.768 0.185 0.19
Lightning's Swift Strike 34492 105.58% 33.65 101.16% 0.105 0.3733 0.454
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 71 39.13% 37.58 83.1% 0.495 -0.3191 0.145
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 976 40.68% 49.55 85.04% 1.001 0.4588 1.092
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1985 33.65% 55.0 87.81% 0.796 0.3179 1.093
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2262 100.0% 38.04 100.0% -0.151 -0.2726 -0.377
Many Minds Move as One 1190 100.0% 38.76 100.0% 0.821 0.1978 0.523
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 46796 100.0% 39.08 100.0% 0.293 0.1657 0.469
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4996 100.0% 37.73 100.0% -0.185 -0.2683 0.09
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9503 100.0% 39.05 100.0% 0.362 0.1883 -0.154
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10747 103.35% 26.14 101.37% -0.71 -0.3165 -0.306
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 27 11.11% 32.89 96.3% 0.527 0.6237 0.162
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 20 47.37% 34.0 80.0% 0.638 0.7132 0.676
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 317 45.51% 36.58 75.39% -0.681 -0.7169 -0.657
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 305 47.14% 37.62 79.02% -0.769 -0.7654 0.308
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7299 100.0% 39.32 100.0% 1.126 0.9265 0.335
Shifting Memory of Ages 647 100.0% 35.63 100.0% -0.206 0.0235 -0.157
Shroud of Silent Mist 694 100.0% 33.74 100.0% -0.841 -0.657 -0.554
Starlight Seeks its Form 800 100.0% 37.76 100.0% -0.2 -0.3558 0.014
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2996 100.0% 36.87 100.0% -0.444 -0.7078 -0.386
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5789 100.0% 38.63 100.0% 0.328 0.3911 0.191
Thunderspeaker 19507 100.0% 36.95 100.0% 0.255 0.1787 -0.296
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1367 100.0% 33.59 100.0% -0.137 -0.3991 -0.517
Vital Strength of the Earth 19058 101.01% 27.87 100.44% -0.357 0.3959 -0.597
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 51 27.08% 32.12 88.24% 0.133 0.711 0.634
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 254 34.44% 30.36 69.69% -1.115 0.0348 -1.548
Volcano Looming High 1273 100.0% 37.54 100.0% 0.76 0.7557 -0.016

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 69.62%
Flash Floods 94.6%
River's Bounty 94.97%
Wash Away 88.32%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 83030 22.63 43.37%
II 190919 31.12 83.48%
III 68531 34.7 84.27%
IV 15925 37.97 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 35998
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 55689
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 152030
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15371
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 110
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6729
Lose: Adversary condition 18177
Win: Sacrifice victory 850
Lose: Scenario condition 2425
Win: Scenario condition 8943
Lose: Blight pool ran out 58966
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3117

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.225 Win Model: -0.1

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.3 Win Model: 0.14
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 209700 51.55% 27.02 73.09%
2 87551 43.32% 32.84 75.23%
3 29485 36.53% 35.35 79.88%
4 29986 28.55% 39.94 82.5%
5 281 20.72% 48.37 91.46%
6 1402 19.25% 38.48 84.81%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)