Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 47 23.4% 26.77 70.21% 0.193 0.6348 0.0
Blitz 0 3563 39.75% 32.57 71.09% 0.218 0.6412 -0.128
Dahan Insurrection 4 6513 30.36% 55.58 77.03% 0.334 0.4807 0.429
Despicable Theft 2 264 44.7% 35.37 80.3% 0.557 1.0327 0.227
Elemental Invocation 1 219 55.25% 32.3 64.84% 0.198 0.7448 -1.093
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9789 12.25% 45.6 80.42% -0.263 -0.0565 0.561
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2171 34.21% 43.24 80.06% -0.488 -0.0989 -0.719
Rituals of Terror 3 1626 48.97% 55.44 73.55% 0.343 0.0474 0.867
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 429 77.57% 35.39 51.75% -0.136 0.0619 -0.439
Second Wave 0 6601 48.99% 28.78 71.03% -0.683 -0.0004 -0.736
The Great River 3 306 58.03% 31.98 55.88% -0.512 1.0932 -1.715
Varied Terrains 2 23 60.87% 24.35 47.83% -1.103 -0.3052 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 1388 48.2% 36.15 64.91% -0.226 0.6321 -0.409

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 198898 51.25% 26.57 73.66% -0.013 0.6742 -0.421
1 Thematic 7703 56.68% 36.03 58.06% -0.444 0.6535 -0.308
2 Archipelago 67 46.27% 55.49 79.1% -0.136 0.1507 0.218
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 55152 43.34% 32.04 75.51% -0.242 0.2893 0.189
2 Coastline 9178 41.29% 31.91 77.06% -0.088 0.1206 -0.163
2 Fragment 1467 49.24% 26.56 70.48% 0.295 0.6116 0.12
2 Heart 725 50.96% 26.65 71.17% -0.105 0.3295 -0.153
2 Opposite Shores 12575 43.25% 34.58 76.32% -0.393 0.1498 -0.079
2 Thematic 4631 45.57% 44.9 64.56% 0.082 0.9576 -0.021
2 Top to Top 2673 43.26% 34.46 77.37% 1.401 1.5693 0.124
3 Archipelago 45 35.56% 39.73 93.33% 0.186 -0.0288 -0.176
3 Coastline 336 23.4% 46.34 89.29% -0.434 -0.8321 1.023
3 Other 1213 39.34% 32.68 79.31% 0.138 -0.5734 0.133
3 Round (Default) 26485 36.35% 35.14 80.32% 0.059 0.3532 -0.32
3 Sunrise 119 40.35% 33.07 82.35% -0.572 -0.1069 0.045
3 Thematic 1035 45.73% 40.82 62.13% -0.481 -0.3615 -0.227
4 Archipelago 46 31.11% 44.07 93.48% -0.158 -0.115 0.014
4 Coastline 229 20.44% 50.7 82.53% 0.11 0.0475 0.784
4 Leaf 108 32.69% 35.5 83.33% 0.429 0.5798 -0.14
4 Other 821 33.29% 36.44 82.34% 0.236 -0.6266 -0.299
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.338
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 5302 28.54% 51.8 77.69% 1.38 1.5339 -0.184
4 Trapezoid (Default) 22877 28.83% 37.23 83.37% 0.218 0.2648 -0.161
5 Archipelago 11 18.18% 44.91 90.91% 0.174 0.0655 0.022
5 Coastline 79 7.89% 64.8 100.0% 0.204 -0.3962 0.798
5 Other 359 32.01% 44.09 89.97% -0.364 -0.8665 0.188
5 Thematic 37 27.03% 58.22 83.78% 0.086 -0.2391 1.054
6 Archipelago 38 12.9% 48.21 86.84% -0.995 -1.0551 -0.453
6 Coastline 35 10.53% 48.49 97.14% 0.184 -0.5439 0.148
6 Other 249 19.49% 40.4 80.32% 0.351 0.2872 -1.079
6 Star 74 20.55% 40.15 77.03% -0.521 0.2196 -1.514
6 Thematic 347 23.34% 40.3 76.95% -0.651 -0.3288 -0.677
6 Two Centers (Default) 529 17.75% 34.04 91.3% -0.222 -0.0573 -0.76
7 Archipelago 8 37.5% 35.88 87.5% 0.03 0.1869 -0.734
7 Other 8 33.33% 42.75 50.0% 0.0 -0.4207 -0.365

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 7799 32.58 53.6% -2.172 -0.2054 -0.523
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6886 34.59 56.58% -2.196 -0.414 -0.29
All Things Weaken 2762 34.8 54.78% -1.846 0.1953 -0.458
Back Against the Wall 6688 32.64 50.9% -2.184 -0.2435 -0.819
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7237 29.43 47.87% -2.237 -0.102 -0.7
Downward Spiral 28606 25.22 54.44% -2.442 -0.4728 -0.67
Erosion of Will 7461 30.98 48.93% -2.236 -0.158 -0.646
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1218 42.08 79.89% -0.232 0.2315 0.069
Memory Fades to Dust 29021 24.66 50.34% -2.681 -0.5314 -0.78
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2522 32.61 51.31% -2.183 -0.2067 -0.702
Promising Farmlands 7416 29.44 46.76% -2.032 -0.0111 -0.943
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 753 42.08 85.26% -0.754 -0.2596 0.324
Thriving Communities 2599 31.93 49.33% -2.403 -0.3387 -0.686
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 0.0 -0.72
Unnatural Proliferation 2853 34.32 51.7% -2.303 -0.3486 -0.685
Untended Land Crumbles 2669 33.12 51.63% -2.045 -0.0179 -0.631

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 119893 40.52% 31.77 75.25% -0.27 0.4577 0.523
B 94161 40.6% 31.24 75.31% -0.291 0.3978 0.46
C 150710 41.45% 29.68 81.9% 0.809 1.2807 0.327
D 92512 40.9% 30.71 74.2% -0.514 0.2038 0.337
E 16437 44.19% 36.54 76.27% -0.169 0.3687 0.549
F 25936 42.09% 34.85 76.04% -0.244 0.4198 0.391
G 26257 40.78% 36.92 78.17% -0.059 0.5751 1.196
H 26493 40.51% 36.07 77.32% -0.234 0.4339 0.834
East 15221 42.42% 45.37 66.86% -0.767 -0.1191 -0.42
Northeast 9283 37.99% 46.93 70.02% -0.88 -0.2647 -0.107
Northwest 7960 34.83% 48.03 72.19% 0.33 0.9256 -0.448
Southeast 1435 38.85% 41.21 70.66% 0.397 0.9037 -1.305
Southwest 1226 37.66% 39.58 70.47% 0.068 1.0467 0.355
West 12218 38.76% 45.92 68.96% 0.824 1.6072 0.248

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 87032 0.0% 22.23 78.93% -2.175 0.0517 -1.042
Not Using Events or Tokens 163494 45.62% 24.44 77.19% 0.17 0.397 -0.265
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13009 9.22% 38.72 91.7% 1.191 0.2456 0.064
Start of Game Growth 19061 11.17% 37.13 90.2% -0.098 -0.5556 0.045
Unlimited Undo 35964 31.86% 33.22 83.43% 0.454 -0.1009 0.931
Using Tokens but Not Events 29582 33.31% 33.68 80.31% -0.039 0.1113 0.237

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 22127 100.0% 37.52 100.0% 0.087 0.0311 0.271
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6561 100.0% 31.88 100.0% 0.013 0.0767 -0.673
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4252 100.0% 32.99 100.0% -0.093 -0.3447 -0.274
Downpour Drenches the World 262 100.0% 34.61 100.0% -0.638 -0.3636 -0.594
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7546 100.0% 37.73 100.0% 0.305 -0.1944 0.086
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4424 100.0% 34.41 100.0% 0.195 -0.3744 -0.405
Finder of Paths Unseen 117 100.0% 36.43 100.0% -0.012 0.326 0.922
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1012 100.0% 46.92 100.0% 0.201 0.2553 0.476
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 717 100.0% 44.5 100.0% -0.262 -0.382 -0.468
Heart of the Wildfire 7345 100.0% 37.94 100.0% -0.23 0.1687 0.508
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15659 100.0% 41.19 100.0% 0.703 0.1053 0.167
Lightning's Swift Strike 33975 105.47% 33.66 101.14% -0.005 0.3474 0.423
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 58 35.71% 34.57 81.03% -0.221 -0.9713 0.027
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 959 40.67% 49.41 85.09% 0.946 0.3812 1.073
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1919 34.07% 55.01 87.81% 1.351 0.8708 1.089
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2199 100.0% 38.04 100.0% -0.065 -0.2066 -0.363
Many Minds Move as One 1143 100.0% 38.74 100.0% 0.958 0.392 0.482
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 46012 100.0% 39.06 100.0% 0.413 0.2336 0.446
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4917 100.0% 37.8 100.0% -0.499 -0.5297 0.085
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9399 100.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.045 -0.1682 -0.17
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10594 103.27% 26.18 101.32% -0.915 -0.4376 -0.331
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 24 8.33% 32.88 95.83% 0.194 0.3116 0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 14 53.85% 31.79 71.43% 0.007 0.0356 0.673
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 312 46.1% 36.84 75.64% -1.283 -1.3215 -0.658
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 294 46.5% 37.98 79.93% 0.663 0.8428 0.28
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7229 100.0% 39.36 100.0% 0.009 -0.1802 0.32
Shifting Memory of Ages 615 100.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.605 0.8199 -0.174
Shroud of Silent Mist 663 100.0% 34.36 100.0% -0.305 -0.1547 -0.542
Starlight Seeks its Form 746 100.0% 38.14 100.0% -0.071 -0.1921 -0.017
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2944 100.0% 36.99 100.0% -0.759 -0.9787 -0.398
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5681 100.0% 38.6 100.0% -0.33 -0.1955 0.17
Thunderspeaker 19158 100.0% 36.96 100.0% -0.075 -0.0772 -0.31
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1346 100.0% 33.65 100.0% -0.114 -0.3153 -0.548
Vital Strength of the Earth 18745 100.98% 27.82 100.42% -0.338 0.5608 -0.657
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 46 27.27% 32.96 89.13% 0.628 1.0664 0.709
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 244 34.63% 30.7 70.08% -0.498 0.5556 -1.524
Volcano Looming High 1238 100.0% 37.42 100.0% -0.418 -0.429 -0.071

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 69.6%
Flash Floods 94.59%
River's Bounty 94.96%
Wash Away 88.3%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 81913 22.65 43.26%
II 188338 31.08 83.46%
III 67579 34.66 84.23%
IV 15707 37.91 98.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 35423
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 54877
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 149911
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15162
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6643
Lose: Adversary condition 18025
Win: Sacrifice victory 836
Lose: Scenario condition 2408
Win: Scenario condition 8844
Lose: Blight pool ran out 58322
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3086

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.124 Win Model: -0.098

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.325 Win Model: 0.277
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 206983 51.59% 27.02 73.06%
2 86419 43.33% 32.87 75.23%
3 29140 36.61% 35.34 79.78%
4 29462 28.75% 39.97 82.38%
5 254 22.22% 48.19 91.73%
6 1279 19.46% 38.26 84.28%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-18 02:29:18 (Pacific Time)