Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3728 38.62% 32.23 -0.013 71.03% -0.33 0.2467
Dahan Insurrection 4 7985 31.21% 53.8 0.014 76.68% 0.011 0.4113
Despicable Theft 2 35 48.57% 33.71 0.042 82.86% 0.137 0.5659
Elemental Invocation 1 148 48.65% 31.11 -0.051 63.51% -0.813 -0.4322
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 11892 12.7% 43.75 0.016 79.83% -0.265 0.1009
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2361 42.69% 39.64 -0.002 76.11% -0.137 0.3046
Rituals of Terror 3 1635 45.53% 43.51 0.007 73.27% 0.122 0.7501
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 602 79.26% 34.39 -0.095 48.34% -0.719 -0.0694
Second Wave 0 7834 50.15% 28.93 -0.024 70.33% -0.576 -0.1596
The Great River 3 236 48.73% 32.49 -0.125 52.97% -1.97 -0.4984
Ward the Shores 2 1815 47.98% 36.17 -0.052 62.87% -0.786 0.2506

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 146995 51.03% 26.69 -0.011 73.05% -1.735 -1.3758
1 Thematic 6274 55.78% 36.92 -0.049 58.03% -1.71 -1.2059
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 42674 43.38% 32.16 0.008 75.58% -0.736 -0.5401
2 Coastline 6930 41.51% 31.86 0.008 76.19% -0.765 -0.622
2 Fragment 1126 48.81% 26.46 -0.021 70.69% -1.134 -0.712
2 Heart 566 50.0% 27.3 -0.007 72.79% -0.977 -0.6848
2 Opposite Shores 10053 41.28% 34.91 0.013 76.96% -0.711 -0.4858
2 Thematic 3869 44.17% 41.17 -0.031 64.33% -0.855 -0.8103
2 Top to Top 1984 42.26% 33.61 0.017 77.07% -0.611 -0.4763
3 Coastline 283 24.1% 46.96 0.049 87.63% 0.613 0.5793
3 Other 970 41.02% 32.74 0.008 77.73% -0.126 0.2899
3 Round (Default) 20847 37.2% 34.93 0.018 79.29% 0.186 0.2253
3 Sunrise 102 44.0% 31.79 0.02 80.39% 0.123 -0.1003
3 Thematic 849 48.68% 39.78 -0.048 60.42% -0.157 -0.5141
4 Coastline 140 21.9% 45.76 0.011 78.57% 0.666 0.8245
4 Leaf 96 35.11% 34.17 0.006 80.21% 0.532 0.5595
4 Other 697 34.93% 36.92 0.023 82.64% 0.858 0.9708
4 Reverse Snake 7 0.0% 38.14 0.049 100.0% 0.452 -0.3359
4 Snake 4 25.0% 34.75 0.064 100.0% 0.294 0.4179
4 Thematic 4370 31.64% 49.37 -0.006 74.58% 0.852 -0.2341
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18063 30.32% 37.12 0.021 82.41% 1.008 0.9912
5 Coastline 3 33.33% 63.33 0.107 100.0% 0.429 0.3478
5 Other 136 31.85% 42.32 0.084 94.85% 2.364 2.1457
5 Thematic 17 29.41% 56.18 0.118 100.0% 1.875 -0.9525

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6289 32.39 -0.112 53.04% -1.932 0.1378
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5579 34.43 -0.097 56.28% -1.806 0.1126
All Things Weaken 1834 32.87 -0.107 53.27% -1.867 0.2879
Back Against the Wall 5484 32.52 -0.124 50.88% -2.044 0.0525
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5848 29.28 -0.138 47.54% -2.171 0.0525
Downward Spiral 21674 25.49 -0.122 53.99% -2.179 -0.1618
Erosion of Will 6023 30.75 -0.136 48.31% -2.167 0.0421
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 770 39.96 0.009 78.05% -0.665 0.0392
Memory Fades to Dust 21977 24.8 -0.143 49.91% -2.364 -0.1487
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1754 31.08 -0.122 50.4% -2.015 0.0055
Promising Farmlands 6091 29.11 -0.146 46.49% -2.265 -0.0528
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 497 40.1 0.033 83.5% -0.362 0.0739
Thriving Communities 1752 30.37 -0.138 47.15% -2.191 -0.0935
Tipping Point 3618 29.24 -0.144 46.74% -2.241 -0.0224
Unnatural Proliferation 1995 32.87 -0.117 51.38% -1.977 0.1008
Untended Land Crumbles 1771 31.85 -0.122 50.03% -2.018 0.0811

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 62559 41.89% 31.37 -0.002 73.67% 0.611 -0.4788
B 38243 45.39% 28.95 -0.015 71.56% 0.455 -0.73
C 77763 46.61% 27.79 0.042 81.94% 1.325 -0.09
D 38123 47.0% 27.96 -0.028 69.12% 0.325 -0.8517
E 4952 52.13% 33.52 -0.008 70.34% 0.642 -0.6345
F 9161 49.7% 32.01 -0.013 70.55% 0.522 -0.7205
G 9525 44.8% 34.84 0.001 73.46% 0.669 -0.5618
H 10379 43.94% 35.22 0.005 74.34% 0.701 -0.5385
East 7235 43.3% 43.24 -0.028 66.08% 0.127 -0.8241
Northeast 2229 54.49% 37.46 -0.053 57.34% 0.05 -0.8396
Northwest 1826 48.93% 38.75 -0.039 60.68% 0.142 -0.8229
Southeast 360 45.96% 38.64 -0.026 64.44% 0.175 -0.8263
Southwest 278 46.21% 33.35 -0.032 62.23% 0.106 -0.5026
West 2850 39.68% 47.53 -0.034 66.98% 0.069 -0.6173

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 61260 0.0% 22.26 -0.014 78.8% -1.506 0.5382
Not Using Events or Tokens 115505 45.85% 24.49 0.004 76.9% -0.039 0.1797
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10647 9.92% 38.68 0.046 91.51% 0.786 0.0823
Start of Game Growth 15217 11.38% 37.08 0.048 90.0% 0.375 -0.0796
Unlimited Undo 28073 31.25% 33.23 0.03 83.08% 0.282 -0.1298
Using Tokens but Not Events 23611 34.14% 32.86 0.021 79.56% 0.102 0.0545

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 16766 28.73% 37.2 0.018 81.09% -0.054 0.0925
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5485 50.22% 32.5 -0.019 71.69% -0.417 -0.1806
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3127 35.25% 33.66 0.016 80.04% 0.0 -0.0854
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5455 28.92% 37.65 0.028 82.86% 0.137 -0.2282
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3379 35.37% 34.08 0.014 79.46% -0.052 -0.2969
Fractured Days Split the Sky 747 36.79% 43.08 0.044 84.07% 0.465 0.8102
Heart of the Wildfire 6151 50.16% 37.27 -0.002 73.34% -0.063 0.2871
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13007 35.55% 40.4 0.03 81.26% 0.267 -0.0329
Lightning's Swift Strike 27660 34.77% 34.76 0.017 79.52% 0.072 0.3409
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1147 45.25% 36.47 0.003 74.98% -0.099 -0.4188
Many Minds Move as One 823 43.4% 38.47 0.038 81.77% 0.408 -0.1124
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 35774 38.57% 38.62 0.029 79.18% 0.393 0.1986
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3531 35.29% 37.56 0.019 79.24% 0.104 0.1531
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7914 35.51% 38.22 0.003 76.21% -0.163 -0.0131
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9037 47.48% 27.6 -0.024 72.48% -0.476 -0.026
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6158 35.72% 39.14 0.014 78.74% 0.03 -0.0374
Shroud of Silent Mist 68 47.76% 31.0 0.019 79.41% 0.155 0.1113
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2328 43.66% 35.56 -0.002 73.5% -0.211 -0.2304
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4087 31.05% 38.66 0.026 82.09% 0.055 0.2711
Thunderspeaker 14923 37.12% 36.8 0.003 77.03% -0.183 -0.1251
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1161 62.94% 33.32 -0.029 66.41% -0.328 -0.3077
Vital Strength of the Earth 14350 30.66% 28.13 -0.018 75.85% -0.695 0.1754
Volcano Looming High 506 52.8% 36.49 0.002 73.12% 0.006 -0.0563

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 66.52%
Flash Floods 94.29%
River's Bounty 94.77%
Wash Away 87.83%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 62797 22.34 42.53%
II 139518 30.75 82.81%
III 52253 34.26 84.46%
IV 12488 37.47 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18068
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28898
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 77737
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8122
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5084
Lose: Adversary condition 14491
Win: Sacrifice victory 523
Lose: Scenario condition 2079
Win: Scenario condition 7261
Lose: Blight pool ran out 44235
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2452

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.621 Win Model: -0.15

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.008 Win Model: -0.575
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 153301 51.3% 27.11 72.44%
2 67337 43.06% 32.99 75.17%
3 23007 37.57% 35.12 78.63%
4 23411 30.61% 39.47 80.97%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.013 Win Model: -0.386
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 205992 32.88 73.4%
Power Progression 61064 21.91 77.8%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)