Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 70 21.74% 25.37 70.0% 0.165 -0.0391 -1.068
Blitz 0 3777 39.0% 32.46 70.93% 0.417 0.5698 0.024
Dahan Insurrection 4 6855 29.99% 55.09 76.4% 0.597 0.3572 0.425
Despicable Theft 2 292 43.79% 33.85 76.71% -0.94 -0.1641 0.058
Elemental Invocation 1 238 55.04% 32.07 65.13% 0.401 1.1837 -1.08
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10229 12.17% 45.58 80.35% 1.11 0.4957 0.622
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2266 33.84% 43.15 80.05% 0.49 1.0033 -0.738
Rituals of Terror 3 1758 49.16% 56.11 72.13% 1.013 1.0809 0.847
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 446 76.63% 35.08 51.57% -0.309 0.6908 -0.486
Second Wave 0 6857 48.66% 28.65 70.96% 0.444 0.5094 -0.723
The Great River 3 327 56.75% 30.8 53.52% -1.171 0.1832 -1.611
Varied Terrains 2 32 59.38% 21.75 43.75% -0.818 -0.2728 -0.296
Ward the Shores 2 1412 48.09% 35.96 64.66% -0.41 0.7406 -0.357

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 209276 51.03% 26.18 72.62% 0.693 0.9171 -0.305
1 Thematic 7838 56.53% 35.9 57.94% -0.117 0.5046 -0.226
2 Archipelago 81 41.98% 49.9 71.6% -0.533 -0.1197 0.05
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 57948 43.2% 31.53 74.46% 0.565 0.7136 0.314
2 Coastline 9721 40.61% 31.31 76.0% 0.648 0.6818 -0.081
2 Fragment 1545 49.35% 26.01 69.39% 0.54 0.4597 0.27
2 Heart 787 51.1% 26.15 70.01% 0.874 0.5203 -0.224
2 Opposite Shores 13092 43.2% 34.14 75.54% 0.744 0.8495 -0.003
2 Thematic 4792 45.38% 45.3 63.94% -0.346 0.3342 0.025
2 Top to Top 2785 43.11% 33.96 76.55% 0.502 0.4884 0.285
3 Archipelago 52 38.46% 39.1 90.38% 0.144 -1.2676 0.229
3 Coastline 351 23.68% 45.43 88.03% 0.273 -0.211 0.894
3 Other 1264 38.77% 32.26 79.11% 1.002 1.1769 0.256
3 Round (Default) 27644 36.09% 34.8 79.82% 0.892 0.7645 -0.211
3 Sunrise 121 39.66% 32.74 81.82% -0.043 0.0986 0.089
3 Thematic 1062 45.12% 40.5 62.34% -0.28 -0.249 -0.206
4 Archipelago 50 29.17% 42.34 90.0% 0.04 -0.535 -0.281
4 Coastline 232 20.18% 50.19 81.9% -0.462 -0.1525 0.939
4 Leaf 126 36.07% 34.75 82.54% 0.848 0.2219 -0.098
4 Other 859 33.42% 35.59 81.14% 0.42 -0.6436 -0.153
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.0 -0.4584 0.323
4 Snake 5 40.0% 36.4 100.0% 0.506 0.1093 0.0
4 Thematic 5495 28.01% 51.39 77.02% -1.285 -1.3625 -0.223
4 Trapezoid (Default) 24026 28.34% 36.75 82.74% 0.824 0.5772 -0.055
5 Archipelago 13 15.38% 42.77 92.31% 0.371 -0.6764 0.031
5 Coastline 104 6.93% 59.68 91.35% -0.318 -0.4283 -0.329
5 Other 427 32.91% 42.35 88.29% 0.72 0.0987 0.287
5 Thematic 45 26.67% 54.38 82.22% -0.74 -0.8618 0.965
6 Archipelago 45 13.51% 46.27 84.44% -0.385 -0.2035 -0.369
6 Coastline 57 5.88% 44.7 94.74% 0.593 -0.2556 0.01
6 Other 335 19.55% 41.68 79.7% -0.298 -0.7692 -0.991
6 Star 84 20.48% 37.69 75.0% -0.744 -0.7023 -1.571
6 Thematic 443 22.78% 39.71 73.81% -1.306 -0.9575 -0.519
6 Two Centers (Default) 667 16.72% 31.77 86.06% -0.367 -0.4749 -0.903
7 Archipelago 10 30.0% 32.8 80.0% -0.643 -1.0132 -0.7
7 Other 9 42.86% 41.33 55.56% -0.581 -1.5207 -0.761

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8033 32.41 53.34% -0.538 -0.3274 -0.454
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7091 34.42 56.56% -0.007 -0.0391 -0.226
All Things Weaken 2903 34.71 54.53% -0.314 0.0982 -0.385
Attenuated Essence 47 35.38 53.19% 0.068 0.2206 -0.415
Back Against the Wall 6898 32.5 50.88% -0.168 -0.0605 -0.751
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 62 25.29 43.55% -0.253 0.0851 -1.19
Burn Brightest Before the End 46 31.0 50.0% -0.043 0.1939 0.102
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7444 29.28 47.8% -0.476 -0.0049 -0.624
Downward Spiral 29812 24.97 54.01% -0.486 -0.1997 -0.62
Erosion of Will 7655 30.82 48.57% -1.056 -0.7076 -0.589
Intensifying Exploitation 61 32.69 47.54% -0.254 0.0922 0.285
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1273 41.91 79.89% 0.603 0.0746 0.165
Memory Fades to Dust 30263 24.45 50.05% -0.488 -0.071 -0.726
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2681 32.42 51.32% -0.043 0.2162 -0.642
Promising Farmlands 7627 29.29 46.66% -0.482 0.0365 -0.878
Shattered Fragments of Power 42 27.0 42.86% -0.456 -0.3464 -0.969
Slow Dissolution of Will 47 24.21 38.3% -0.573 -0.0995 -1.069
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 801 42.37 85.02% 0.768 0.1515 0.42
The Border of Life and Death 25 38.16 68.0% 0.491 0.1877 0.82
Thriving Communities 2736 31.65 49.12% -0.551 -0.1502 -0.632
Thriving Crops 16 30.94 56.25% 0.042 0.0147 -0.163
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 -0.1615 -0.648
Unnatural Proliferation 3016 34.33 51.62% -0.286 -0.0499 -0.584
Untended Land Crumbles 2816 32.84 51.31% -0.642 -0.341 -0.569

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 125683 40.24% 31.35 74.37% -1.226 -0.3759 0.564
B 98713 40.27% 30.8 74.44% -1.297 -0.4846 0.502
C 158670 41.16% 29.23 80.81% -0.752 -0.0682 0.362
D 97024 40.58% 30.28 73.29% -1.465 -0.6409 0.368
E 17997 43.35% 35.76 75.4% -1.101 -0.4524 0.545
F 27661 41.56% 34.31 75.33% -1.24 -0.4934 0.394
G 27774 40.41% 36.41 77.5% -1.036 -0.2696 1.215
H 28168 40.01% 35.59 76.79% -0.94 -0.2595 0.872
East 15783 41.9% 45.27 66.46% -0.523 0.1218 -0.274
Northeast 9670 37.29% 46.56 69.58% -0.563 0.256 0.005
Northwest 8299 34.14% 47.65 71.67% -0.481 0.2501 -0.274
Southeast 1563 37.68% 40.83 69.93% -0.613 0.1175 -1.261
Southwest 1353 36.6% 39.28 69.62% -0.087 1.0067 0.326
West 12720 38.28% 45.84 68.47% -0.568 0.3851 0.23

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 92443 0.0% 21.77 77.29% -0.374 0.4599 -1.04
Not Using Events or Tokens 173419 45.27% 23.96 75.71% -0.28 0.0498 -0.26
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13485 9.33% 38.52 91.01% 0.759 0.1731 0.105
Start of Game Growth 19779 11.21% 36.87 89.37% -0.311 -0.5814 0.071
Unlimited Undo 37523 31.79% 32.92 82.69% 0.185 0.1786 0.928
Using Tokens but Not Events 31010 33.15% 33.5 79.73% 0.36 0.2906 0.226

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 23189 100.0% 37.17 100.0% 0.179 0.0313 0.312
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6791 100.0% 31.47 100.0% -0.529 -0.4214 -0.581
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4557 100.0% 32.13 100.0% -0.13 -0.3003 -0.185
Downpour Drenches the World 390 100.0% 31.71 100.0% -0.138 0.0559 -0.599
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 244 100.0% 30.03 100.0% 0.128 -0.6534 -0.914
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7970 100.0% 37.2 100.0% 0.496 -0.092 0.142
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4687 100.0% 34.42 100.0% 0.059 -0.4229 -0.372
Finder of Paths Unseen 180 100.0% 32.92 100.0% -0.506 0.1785 0.661
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1069 100.0% 46.03 100.0% 0.232 0.8825 0.502
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 810 100.0% 43.05 100.0% 0.216 0.1278 -0.41
Heart of the Wildfire 7619 100.0% 37.61 100.0% -0.474 -0.22 0.457
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16342 100.0% 40.84 100.0% -0.018 -0.442 0.197
Lightning's Swift Strike 35911 105.74% 33.03 101.36% -0.294 -0.0624 0.484
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 138 39.71% 41.2 77.54% 0.548 -0.119 0.367
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 1025 40.59% 48.95 84.2% 0.587 0.3711 1.109
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2088 33.61% 53.87 85.87% -0.017 -0.1432 1.059
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2396 100.0% 37.21 100.0% -0.576 -0.7073 -0.378
Many Minds Move as One 1242 100.0% 38.48 100.0% 1.056 0.8561 0.578
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 48180 100.0% 38.72 100.0% 0.158 0.1491 0.502
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 5159 100.0% 37.39 100.0% 0.048 -0.1006 0.143
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9674 100.0% 38.83 100.0% 0.129 -0.095 -0.091
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 11200 103.42% 25.48 101.44% -0.863 -0.3975 -0.281
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 36 14.29% 31.28 88.89% 0.098 0.072 0.171
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 28 38.46% 28.96 71.43% -0.613 -0.6674 0.728
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 336 46.81% 36.23 76.19% 1.426 1.3759 -0.605
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 314 46.73% 37.11 78.03% 0.275 0.3279 0.332
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7422 100.39% 39.06 100.19% 0.109 -0.0124 0.374
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 42 30.95% 25.6 66.67% 0.124 -0.3013 -0.333
Shifting Memory of Ages 733 100.0% 34.32 100.0% -0.205 0.1822 -0.256
Shroud of Silent Mist 737 100.0% 33.0 100.0% -0.294 0.0184 -0.539
Starlight Seeks its Form 892 100.0% 36.75 100.0% 0.12 -0.139 0.054
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3144 100.0% 36.23 100.0% -0.246 -0.741 -0.352
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5958 100.0% 38.3 100.0% 0.386 0.4368 0.243
Thunderspeaker 20128 100.08% 36.55 100.06% 0.248 0.23 -0.25
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 26 38.46% 19.54 53.85% -0.394 -0.499 -0.788
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1390 100.0% 33.5 100.0% -0.176 -0.1287 -0.475
Vital Strength of the Earth 19885 101.11% 27.29 100.55% -0.578 -0.0316 -0.52
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 85 39.02% 29.58 74.12% -0.138 0.1374 1.041
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 272 33.85% 29.33 68.01% -0.541 0.3427 -1.455
Volcano Looming High 1335 100.0% 37.26 100.0% 0.359 0.3766 0.083

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 69.95%
Flash Floods 94.64%
River's Bounty 95.01%
Wash Away 88.43%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 89401 20.82 41.1%
II 195738 31.03 83.37%
III 70096 34.74 84.23%
IV 16317 38.03 98.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 36733
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 56952
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 155716
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15733
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5016
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6862
Lose: Adversary condition 18579
Win: Sacrifice victory 885
Lose: Scenario condition 2466
Win: Scenario condition 9076
Lose: Blight pool ran out 60338
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3196

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.379 Win Model: -0.03

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.181 Win Model: 0.259
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 217669 51.36% 26.64 72.05%
2 90632 43.14% 32.36 74.26%
3 30394 36.33% 35.0 79.31%
4 30864 28.28% 39.45 81.74%
5 353 23.75% 44.48 86.97%
6 1640 18.88% 37.25 81.1%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)