Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 71 21.43% 25.39 70.42% 0.363 0.1074 -1.083
Blitz 0 3825 38.8% 32.44 70.88% 0.502 0.6989 0.056
Dahan Insurrection 4 6916 29.89% 54.99 76.27% 0.656 0.2131 0.422
Despicable Theft 2 298 43.58% 33.47 75.84% -0.72 0.0919 0.066
Elemental Invocation 1 244 55.74% 32.2 65.57% 1.122 1.8248 -1.075
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10316 12.14% 45.53 80.28% 1.057 0.4122 0.625
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2281 33.8% 43.07 79.88% -0.082 0.5538 -0.729
Rituals of Terror 3 1776 49.17% 55.99 71.9% 0.918 1.0187 0.82
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 451 76.22% 34.79 51.22% -1.293 -0.284 -0.49
Second Wave 0 6926 48.62% 28.64 70.94% 0.503 0.5696 -0.696
The Great River 3 330 56.53% 30.75 53.64% -0.851 0.3664 -1.58
Varied Terrains 2 51 62.75% 22.71 45.1% -0.508 0.1152 -0.876
Ward the Shores 2 1416 47.95% 35.92 64.62% -0.06 1.0246 -0.351

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 211239 50.96% 26.1 72.37% 0.736 0.7903 -0.341
1 Thematic 7873 56.5% 35.85 57.88% 0.057 0.5348 -0.252
2 Archipelago 83 40.96% 49.47 71.08% -0.401 -0.2968 0.054
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 58491 43.12% 31.41 74.19% 0.524 0.6064 0.291
2 Coastline 9807 40.49% 31.24 75.95% 0.888 0.7343 -0.094
2 Fragment 1561 49.36% 25.86 68.99% 0.291 0.0416 0.316
2 Heart 792 50.8% 26.02 69.7% 0.544 0.2567 -0.221
2 Opposite Shores 13200 43.18% 34.01 75.3% 0.685 0.7083 -0.027
2 Thematic 4825 45.38% 45.22 63.77% -0.335 0.0687 -0.002
2 Top to Top 2801 43.2% 33.86 76.33% 0.51 0.3433 0.273
3 Archipelago 52 38.46% 39.1 90.38% 0.202 -1.3474 0.256
3 Coastline 354 24.06% 45.27 88.14% 0.643 0.1295 0.885
3 Other 1273 38.81% 32.2 78.71% 0.786 1.3265 0.25
3 Round (Default) 27910 36.07% 34.71 79.59% 0.78 0.6645 -0.219
3 Sunrise 121 39.66% 32.74 81.82% -0.415 -0.1354 0.089
3 Thematic 1066 44.95% 40.42 62.2% -0.175 -0.0952 -0.207
4 Archipelago 51 28.57% 41.51 88.24% 0.038 -0.6369 -0.62
4 Coastline 232 20.18% 50.19 81.9% -0.43 -0.1988 0.947
4 Leaf 126 36.07% 34.75 82.54% 0.707 0.3636 -0.091
4 Other 867 33.29% 35.41 80.97% 0.386 -0.6981 -0.142
4 Reverse Snake 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.321
4 Snake 5 40.0% 36.4 100.0% 0.435 0.0881 0.0
4 Thematic 5537 28.01% 51.3 76.86% -1.006 -1.2684 -0.228
4 Trapezoid (Default) 24335 28.11% 36.53 82.38% 0.622 0.5397 -0.034
5 Archipelago 13 15.38% 42.77 92.31% 0.0 -0.9161 0.04
5 Coastline 111 6.48% 59.64 90.99% 0.195 -0.4568 -0.371
5 Other 443 32.6% 42.04 87.81% 0.687 0.4025 0.329
5 Thematic 46 26.09% 55.26 82.61% -0.261 -0.3545 0.992
6 Archipelago 45 13.51% 46.27 84.44% -0.094 0.0576 -0.333
6 Coastline 67 4.55% 44.76 92.54% 0.586 -0.2148 -0.42
6 Other 349 19.33% 41.64 79.66% -0.292 -0.5251 -0.917
6 Star 85 20.24% 37.74 74.12% -1.122 -1.1345 -1.569
6 Thematic 460 22.59% 39.94 73.7% -1.194 -0.7735 -0.474
6 Two Centers (Default) 706 16.2% 31.12 84.28% -0.528 -0.4235 -1.176
7 Archipelago 10 30.0% 32.8 80.0% -0.717 -0.7356 -0.68
7 Other 9 42.86% 41.33 55.56% 0.398 -0.2149 -0.446

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8060 32.36 53.23% -0.56 -0.318 -0.441
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7124 34.39 56.51% -0.03 -0.1076 -0.207
All Things Weaken 2936 34.63 54.33% -0.393 -0.0007 -0.361
Attenuated Essence 56 32.45 46.43% -0.107 0.0002 -0.611
Back Against the Wall 6928 32.49 50.89% 0.036 0.0939 -0.738
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 74 24.32 40.54% -0.095 0.1071 -1.054
Burn Brightest Before the End 59 29.34 44.07% -0.471 -0.2609 -0.297
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7482 29.26 47.77% -0.527 -0.1031 -0.607
Downward Spiral 30060 24.94 53.93% -0.362 -0.127 -0.609
Erosion of Will 7693 30.82 48.54% -0.728 -0.419 -0.561
Intensifying Exploitation 79 30.53 45.57% -0.01 0.2779 0.243
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1281 41.84 79.94% 0.642 0.148 0.182
Memory Fades to Dust 30490 24.4 49.98% -0.4 -0.0632 -0.713
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2713 32.25 51.01% -0.228 -0.008 -0.636
Promising Farmlands 7669 29.26 46.66% -0.488 -0.0347 -0.862
Shattered Fragments of Power 55 29.62 47.27% 0.098 0.1495 -0.639
Slow Dissolution of Will 54 23.85 37.04% -0.423 -0.0238 -1.131
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 808 42.35 84.9% 1.043 0.332 0.423
The Border of Life and Death 27 37.7 66.67% 0.651 0.3158 0.826
Thriving Communities 2757 31.58 48.93% -0.607 -0.2441 -0.628
Thriving Crops 22 28.55 54.55% 0.067 -0.131 -0.735
Tipping Point 3621 29.24 46.73% 0.0 0.0 -0.633
Unnatural Proliferation 3051 34.21 51.56% -0.222 -0.0073 -0.566
Untended Land Crumbles 2834 32.76 51.24% -0.537 -0.2557 -0.552

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 126901 40.12% 31.23 74.12% -1.034 -0.2938 0.558
B 99755 40.16% 30.68 74.16% -1.08 -0.3539 0.505
C 160273 41.04% 29.13 80.52% -0.631 -0.0483 0.357
D 98048 40.47% 30.16 73.04% -1.127 -0.4156 0.361
E 18301 42.99% 35.63 75.2% -0.856 -0.291 0.538
F 27996 41.41% 34.16 75.08% -1.025 -0.3551 0.395
G 28075 40.34% 36.27 77.26% -0.864 -0.2124 1.211
H 28470 39.86% 35.5 76.62% -0.669 -0.0984 0.873
East 15901 41.84% 45.2 66.36% -0.505 0.0341 -0.266
Northeast 9751 37.24% 46.49 69.47% -0.284 0.3512 0.004
Northwest 8369 34.07% 47.56 71.53% -0.153 0.6558 -0.245
Southeast 1595 37.43% 40.89 69.91% -0.21 0.4954 -1.199
Southwest 1383 36.38% 39.33 69.49% -0.631 0.3589 0.247
West 12816 38.21% 45.77 68.34% -0.214 0.6895 0.245

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 93421 0.0% 21.67 76.96% -0.288 0.4883 -1.028
Not Using Events or Tokens 175483 45.11% 23.85 75.36% -0.328 0.0507 -0.261
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13605 9.28% 38.39 90.79% 0.775 0.1578 0.112
Start of Game Growth 19933 11.18% 36.77 89.13% -0.332 -0.6808 0.065
Unlimited Undo 37838 31.66% 32.86 82.52% 0.194 0.1878 0.928
Using Tokens but Not Events 31267 33.13% 33.46 79.56% 0.315 0.3046 0.217

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 23437 100.0% 37.08 100.0% 0.214 0.0663 0.315
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6849 100.0% 31.34 100.0% -0.491 -0.36 -0.576
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4629 100.0% 31.84 100.0% -0.269 -0.4139 -0.214
Downpour Drenches the World 404 100.0% 31.46 100.0% 0.016 0.1955 -0.565
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 264 100.0% 30.33 100.0% 0.039 -0.7259 -0.831
Eyes Watch From the Trees 8027 100.0% 37.11 100.0% 0.366 -0.2228 0.152
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4759 100.0% 34.42 100.0% 0.321 -0.1754 -0.336
Finder of Paths Unseen 194 100.0% 32.62 100.0% -0.588 0.0762 0.549
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1092 100.0% 45.83 100.0% 0.466 1.052 0.444
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 826 100.0% 42.71 100.0% 0.179 0.0846 -0.401
Heart of the Wildfire 7676 100.0% 37.49 100.0% -0.555 -0.3141 0.451
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16511 100.0% 40.73 100.0% 0.094 -0.3479 0.205
Lightning's Swift Strike 36320 105.81% 32.86 101.38% -0.185 -0.0024 0.496
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 150 38.1% 41.69 77.33% 0.367 -0.12 0.353
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 1032 40.31% 48.86 83.91% 0.591 0.4237 1.121
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2121 33.18% 53.87 85.81% 0.156 0.0422 1.088
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2437 100.0% 36.82 100.0% -1.009 -1.1408 -0.397
Many Minds Move as One 1260 100.0% 38.38 100.0% 1.029 0.8078 0.585
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 48586 100.0% 38.67 100.0% 0.254 0.2117 0.508
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 5211 100.0% 37.27 100.0% -0.03 -0.2077 0.149
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9745 100.0% 38.78 100.0% 0.157 -0.0807 -0.084
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 11445 103.43% 25.11 101.44% -0.795 -0.2658 -0.28
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 41 15.0% 29.39 85.37% -0.089 -0.1637 0.173
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 30 35.71% 28.7 73.33% -0.265 -0.3704 0.791
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 339 46.69% 36.35 76.11% 1.52 1.502 -0.601
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 315 46.58% 36.99 77.78% -0.707 -0.5301 0.367
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7444 100.47% 39.02 100.2% 0.173 -0.0175 0.393
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 50 30.0% 28.54 70.0% 0.331 -0.0499 -0.743
Shifting Memory of Ages 754 100.0% 34.35 100.0% -0.108 0.245 -0.154
Shroud of Silent Mist 757 100.0% 32.79 100.0% 0.264 0.5143 -0.524
Starlight Seeks its Form 924 100.0% 36.38 100.0% 0.066 -0.1952 0.062
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3228 100.0% 35.86 100.0% -0.17 -0.6474 -0.338
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 6016 100.0% 38.19 100.0% 0.089 0.1519 0.24
Thunderspeaker 20321 100.1% 36.45 100.07% 0.185 0.1507 -0.24
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 35 40.0% 22.77 57.14% -0.365 -0.4047 -0.784
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1400 100.0% 33.4 100.0% 0.204 0.2972 -0.457
Vital Strength of the Earth 20201 101.12% 27.09 100.56% -0.461 0.064 -0.486
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 92 39.33% 29.46 72.83% -0.226 0.0346 1.093
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 275 33.85% 29.15 67.64% -0.547 0.2286 -1.49
Volcano Looming High 1376 100.0% 37.14 100.0% 0.06 0.0168 0.098

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 70.05%
Flash Floods 94.67%
River's Bounty 95.03%
Wash Away 88.47%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 91174 20.4 40.61%
II 197026 31.01 83.35%
III 70525 34.76 84.22%
IV 16395 38.07 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 37010
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57303
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 156707
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15808
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6347
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6897
Lose: Adversary condition 18678
Win: Sacrifice victory 892
Lose: Scenario condition 2474
Win: Scenario condition 9115
Lose: Blight pool ran out 60676
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3213

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.261 Win Model: -0.032

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.208 Win Model: 0.286
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 219687 51.29% 26.55 71.81%
2 91436 43.07% 32.24 74.03%
3 30675 36.31% 34.91 79.09%
4 31224 28.1% 39.24 81.43%
5 375 23.39% 44.33 86.4%
6 1723 18.41% 37.09 80.33%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)