Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 214 53.74% 28.2 -2.088 52.34% -0.537 -0.1987
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 117 61.54% 35.65 -10.582 58.12% -0.366 -0.0029
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 68.42% 35.91 -2.788 45.61% -0.557 0.0338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 -6.801 26.23% -0.356 0.4477
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 -7.097 32.26% -0.117 1.453
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 413 61.74% 28.57 -1.363 58.35% -0.141 0.0247
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 383 63.97% 31.21 4.224 57.7% 0.29 0.323
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 230 61.3% 39.37 7.388 63.91% 0.556 0.6957
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 126 74.6% 43.51 -6.863 55.56% -0.11 0.1814
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 104 73.08% 43.68 -5.37 48.08% -0.861 -0.5985
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 48 60.42% 28.6 -3.294 16.67% -0.654 0.5903
The Kingdom of England 0 1 382 60.47% 27.55 -0.614 52.62% -0.141 0.2474
The Kingdom of England 1 3 196 65.31% 36.61 5.383 59.18% 0.186 0.7461
The Kingdom of England 2 4 191 68.06% 29.95 -4.808 38.22% -0.52 0.0824
The Kingdom of England 3 6 73 79.45% 34.6 15.149 34.25% 0.318 1.4464
The Kingdom of England 4 7 109 84.4% 31.59 25.512 20.18% 0.416 1.3812
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 65.22% 36.83 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 128 77.34% 29.21 -11.429 7.03% -0.386 1.4912
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 367 64.85% 28.23 -3.459 46.87% -0.546 -0.0378
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 223 76.23% 30.07 3.276 40.36% 0.068 0.8781
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 111 65.45% 31.93 -7.717 29.73% -0.623 0.5751
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 123 64.23% 31.52 0.916 21.14% -0.537 0.6974
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 191 70.16% 35.58 0.0 16.23%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 86 73.26% 35.62 0.0 11.63%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 75 38.67% 17.52 -4.125 34.67% -0.464 -0.1304
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 30 33.33% 19.57 -1.305 33.33% -0.126 0.1531
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 33 54.55% 19.24 -2.318 24.24% -0.252 0.0305
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 52.17% 26.26 0.949 26.09% -0.482 -0.2038
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 22 72.73% 34.36 10.543 45.45% 0.084 0.9687
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 14.4 -10.686 20.0% -0.313 0.23
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 -7.816 14.81% -0.309 0.8369
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 350 58.86% 28.1 0.024 56.86% -0.249 -0.0342
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 324 61.42% 29.87 -2.625 54.94% -0.477 -0.3102
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 230 63.48% 33.05 -1.841 53.48% -0.372 -0.1341
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 101 62.38% 35.52 6.119 48.51% 0.14 0.611
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 112 79.46% 34.53 -7.111 33.93% -0.225 0.5295
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 73 65.75% 38.4 -7.808 39.73% -0.229 0.7657
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 93 86.02% 35.29 4.826 27.96% -0.065 0.9458
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 170 52.35% 29.27 2.25 61.18% -0.086 0.1175
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 93 67.74% 29.19 -7.953 41.94% -0.626 0.1181
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 74 56.76% 24.72 9.51 32.43% 0.523 1.0381
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 37 51.35% 21.51 0.0 18.92%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 27 62.96% 25.67 0.0 18.52%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 60.0% 45.2 0.0 40.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 51 39.22% 22.0 -2.499 7.84% -0.345 1.5152

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5270 65.21 28.7 55.2% -0.097 0.2552 -0.421
1 Thematic 1556 67.16 34.59 43.12% 0.821 1.5282 0.262
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.132
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 998 62.74 28.64 55.21% -0.534 -0.3789 -0.586
2 Coastline 112 66.67 26.13 58.04% 0.009 -0.2023 1.083
2 Fragment 31 93.55 27.23 32.26% 0.541
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.3
2 Opposite Shores 164 67.7 31.98 67.68% 0.357 0.5022 0.599
2 Thematic 331 68.58 33.1 45.32% 0.298 1.063 -0.23
2 Top to Top 22 68.18 32.36 77.27% -0.202
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.235
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.067
3 Round (Default) 373 69.97 32.1 55.76% 0.246 0.2446 0.015
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.038
3 Thematic 70 54.29 30.44 41.43% -0.48 -0.507 0.179
4 Other 8 62.5 32.75 62.5% 0.142
4 Thematic 45 46.67 29.02 48.89% -0.24 -0.1206 -0.84
4 Trapezoid (Default) 154 61.44 33.27 59.09% 0.301 0.3019 -0.137
5 Other 12 25.0 15.25 16.67% -0.156 -0.4142 -0.249
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.193
6 Other 3 0.0 43.0 66.67% 0.299 0.2478 0.315
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 27 44.44 23.3 22.22% -0.068
6 Two Centers (Default) 12 16.67 18.5 33.33% -0.309 0.1112 -0.419
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.295

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 554 31.16 46.03% 0.12 0.2443 -0.116
Aid From Lesser Spirits 408 35.13 56.37% 0.445 0.3475 0.652
All Things Weaken 256 28.0 44.53% -0.308 -0.0901 -0.326
Attenuated Essence 24 24.67 45.83% -0.251 -0.1622 0.737
Back Against the Wall 414 32.3 50.72% 0.376 0.3796 0.009
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 28 26.04 50.0% 0.061 0.2452 0.423
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 31.59 68.18% 0.509 0.6059 -0.242
Disintegrating Ecosystem 539 27.36 44.53% 0.74 1.0612 -0.126
Downward Spiral 629 29.64 51.67% 1.055 1.1712 0.116
Erosion of Will 531 29.3 42.94% 0.025 0.2273 -0.117
Intensifying Exploitation 46 29.76 54.35% 0.356 0.5781 0.856
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 79 35.73 74.68% -0.137 -0.5381 -0.174
Memory Fades to Dust 629 28.57 44.83% 0.075 0.324 0.039
Power Corrodes the Spirit 291 29.86 47.08% 0.354 0.4523 -0.165
Promising Farmlands 463 29.25 47.95% 0.152 0.5189 -0.241
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 32.54 60.0% 0.902 1.0332 0.79
Slow Dissolution of Will 34 25.03 50.0% -0.008 0.5132 -0.232
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 60 35.35 73.33% 0.628 0.0445 0.502
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.31 68.75% 0.05 -0.3667
Thriving Communities 269 28.38 47.96% 0.793 1.0831 -0.353
Thriving Crops 16 26.25 56.25% -0.396 -0.583 0.649
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.35
Unnatural Proliferation 270 30.04 47.04% 0.341 0.4917 -0.303
Untended Land Crumbles 253 29.6 45.85% 0.675 0.9176 0.059

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1430 64.54% 28.08 52.8% -0.322 0.6327 -0.198
B 1506 65.69% 28.84 53.78% 0.324 1.1949 -0.448
C 1501 63.39% 29.84 59.96% -0.247 0.4738 -0.207
D 1324 65.91% 28.16 53.25% -0.493 0.3869 -0.15
E 807 59.31% 30.16 59.98% 0.539 1.2242 0.103
F 1195 62.4% 30.01 56.9% 0.055 0.8413 0.123
G 1099 70.31% 28.63 50.5% -0.178 0.6296 -0.08
H 1119 62.42% 31.21 57.82% 0.462 1.2262 -0.118
East 1167 60.84% 35.82 49.7% 0.02 0.9014 -0.154
Northeast 625 59.36% 36.31 50.88% -0.574 0.0763 0.043
Northwest 460 69.13% 34.75 46.74% 0.736 1.6309 -0.328
Southeast 226 53.54% 29.58 43.81% 0.352 1.0206 -0.009
Southwest 370 69.46% 25.01 21.62% -0.616 0.7452 -2.706
West 1155 70.04% 31.32 36.19% -0.904 -0.1498 -0.863

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.366 0.1242 -0.656
Skip Initial Invader Actions 254 22.31% 53.6 90.55% 0.323 -0.2593 0.861
Start of Game Growth 307 26.71% 49.94 85.34% 0.111 -0.4105 1.282
Unlimited Undo 448 48.51% 28.1 48.66% -1.479 -1.5292 -0.077
Using Tokens but Not Events 790 57.53% 27.68 57.72% 0.184 0.0365 -1.158

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2788 14.32 4.52%
II 2841 30.31 54.31%
III 2484 34.84 83.98%
IV 1122 38.61 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.151 Win Model: 0.008
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6941 65.31% 29.91 52.04%
2 1595 66.52% 30.2 55.92%
3 449 68.37% 32.0 54.12%
4 192 59.69% 33.53 59.9%
5 22 45.45% 22.5 9.09%
6 36 13.89% 21.22 36.11%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2059
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1535
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1114
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1226
Lose: Invader deck ran out 66
Lose: Adversary condition 631
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2205
Lose: Spirit destroyed 230

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-18 03:11:59 (Pacific Time)