Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 139 70.5% 36.19 3.918 66.19% 0.27 0.5333
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 88 70.45% 43.36 -11.636 70.45% -0.651 -0.3047
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 46 73.91% 41.28 -0.919 52.17% -0.436 0.3937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 38 81.58% 36.55 4.401 36.84% 0.123 1.1146
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 0.0 32.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 0.0 1.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 20 65.0% 41.6 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 329 69.0% 31.8 -1.887 64.74% -0.225 -0.1403
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 299 70.9% 34.18 0.976 63.21% 0.046 -0.0496
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 171 67.25% 45.08 -4.51 73.68% -0.471 -0.4826
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 107 78.5% 46.42 1.747 57.94% -0.189 0.0081
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 84 78.57% 48.65 18.271 53.57% 0.458 0.6606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 79.31% 44.66 -7.0 27.59% -0.39 0.9486
The Kingdom of England 0 1 297 67.68% 30.46 -2.114 58.25% -0.455 -0.1893
The Kingdom of England 1 3 156 71.79% 40.92 6.127 66.03% 0.508 0.6914
The Kingdom of England 2 4 140 80.0% 37.03 4.452 47.86% -0.275 0.4616
The Kingdom of England 3 6 49 91.84% 38.45 22.762 34.69% 1.012 2.1514
The Kingdom of England 4 7 96 88.54% 33.75 -9.562 20.83% -0.558 0.4882
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 75.0% 42.35 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 107 87.85% 32.79 -7.238 7.48% -0.744 1.2982
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 295 72.88% 32.24 -6.339 53.22% -1.191 -0.7889
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 190 81.58% 32.78 -2.125 43.68% -0.105 0.8501
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 85 67.86% 36.66 -4.88 34.12% -0.452 0.6216
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 89 77.53% 36.85 3.663 23.6% -0.27 1.0178
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 185 70.81% 36.09 0.0 16.76%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 104 77.88% 37.74 3.156 12.5% -0.455 0.4741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 70 81.43% 40.57 0.0 14.29%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 24 62.5% 28.96 0.736 58.33% -0.297 -0.2808
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 60.0% 32.8 -8.993 60.0% -0.48 -0.0496
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 22.4 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 33.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 100.0% 40.8 -9.268 60.0% -0.353 0.266
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 0.0 1.528 0.0% -0.02 0.7636
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 9 66.67% 50.44 -7.413 33.33% -0.363 0.9128
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 262 64.12% 31.8 0.737 64.12% 0.112 0.2917
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 239 70.29% 34.16 -1.403 61.09% -0.176 -0.1499
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 183 69.4% 37.4 3.444 60.66% 0.717 0.9404
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 68 80.88% 46.24 2.106 63.24% -0.413 0.0148
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 95 86.32% 38.58 -6.755 37.89% -0.431 0.1771
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 54 72.22% 43.24 -3.161 42.59% -0.214 0.7952
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 75 88.0% 39.21 -2.155 32.0% -0.491 0.3959
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 114 64.91% 36.81 -0.609 76.32% -0.481 -0.3594
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 70 80.0% 36.06 15.667 51.43% 0.54 1.1805
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 44 68.18% 34.66 -1.291 45.45% -0.307 0.1187
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13 46.15% 40.0 -5.055 46.15% -0.268 0.8465
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 39.07 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 24.644 66.67% 0.31 1.8062
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 17 52.94% 39.47 -8.077 11.76% -1.15 0.6901

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3992 70.54 32.21 61.07% 0.04 0.0946 -0.594
1 Thematic 1326 72.4 37.08 44.8% -0.541 -0.0631 0.135
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 71.33 66.67% 0.069
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 740 71.06 33.11 64.19% -0.228 -0.1461 -0.331
2 Coastline 68 74.63 31.15 69.12% 0.554 0.4002 0.862
2 Fragment 26 96.15 28.31 34.62% -0.031 -0.2804 0.754
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.499
2 Opposite Shores 133 66.92 33.57 68.42% 0.284 0.3067 0.3
2 Thematic 250 78.8 38.73 52.4% 0.021 0.4249 -0.563
2 Top to Top 15 73.33 36.07 86.67% -0.267
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.218
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% -0.072
3 Round (Default) 280 75.71 34.84 58.57% 0.006 -0.1092 -0.19
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.05
3 Thematic 54 66.67 38.07 51.85% 0.08 0.16 0.187
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 100.0% 0.587
4 Thematic 32 56.25 37.72 65.63% -0.118 -0.3805 -0.329
4 Trapezoid (Default) 123 62.3 36.41 62.6% -0.092 -0.1751 -0.401
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 100.0% 0.399
6 Thematic 4 75.0 46.75 25.0% -0.01
6 Two Centers (Default) 5 40.0 44.4 80.0% -0.064 0.0405 -0.054
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.212 -0.8243 -0.084

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 483 31.81 46.79% 0.717 0.9595 -0.438
Aid From Lesser Spirits 368 35.52 56.25% 0.591 0.5134 0.279
All Things Weaken 208 29.48 45.19% 0.996 1.3884 -0.829
Attenuated Essence 2 5.0 0.0% -0.396 -0.2888
Back Against the Wall 359 32.74 50.14% 0.45 0.5073 -0.423
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 21.0 60.0% 0.569 0.7712
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 22.25 50.0% 0.397 0.6071
Disintegrating Ecosystem 462 28.61 45.02% 0.194 0.6181 -0.482
Downward Spiral 536 31.02 52.99% 1.046 1.2818 -0.287
Erosion of Will 467 29.53 42.4% 0.387 0.6964 -0.461
Intensifying Exploitation 2 40.0 100.0% 0.192 0.4799
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 66 37.56 77.27% -0.18 -0.6741 -0.287
Memory Fades to Dust 548 29.66 46.17% 0.753 1.0894 -0.316
Power Corrodes the Spirit 252 30.6 47.62% 0.404 0.624 -0.526
Promising Farmlands 389 30.53 48.59% 0.208 0.661 -0.438
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 22.0 33.33% 0.166 0.2174
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 30.2 80.0% 0.78 1.1792
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 39.37 80.43% 0.319 -0.392 0.22
The Border of Life and Death 3 36.0 100.0% 0.651 0.3159
Thriving Communities 236 29.31 48.31% -0.241 0.1224 -0.593
Thriving Crops 4 35.5 75.0% 0.777 0.5787
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.027
Unnatural Proliferation 229 29.67 45.41% -0.099 0.1161 -0.349
Untended Land Crumbles 208 30.16 44.71% 0.618 0.8996 -0.461

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1069 70.68% 32.09 59.4% -0.53 0.2101 0.169
B 1123 71.59% 32.62 59.93% -0.364 0.3621 -0.148
C 1127 69.25% 33.17 66.37% 0.249 0.8315 0.364
D 978 73.43% 32.08 60.43% -0.065 0.646 0.192
E 533 66.17% 34.82 68.48% 0.069 0.6343 0.418
F 890 67.6% 33.95 64.27% 0.233 0.9033 0.392
G 837 78.47% 32.45 55.56% -0.409 0.2427 0.414
H 867 67.32% 34.66 63.32% -0.2 0.3703 0.205
East 916 68.67% 40.75 55.68% -0.645 -0.1057 0.257
Northeast 474 67.93% 42.04 58.44% 0.251 0.886 0.439
Northwest 367 75.48% 38.82 52.32% 0.476 1.2849 -0.085
Southeast 148 64.19% 36.3 53.38% -0.472 0.2337 0.163
Southwest 286 80.77% 27.93 20.98% -0.144 0.8463 -2.592
West 950 76.95% 34.56 38.84% -0.198 0.7054 -0.57

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 32.9 80.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 85 75.61% 30.25 58.82% -0.23 0.1496 -0.443
Skip Initial Invader Actions 219 22.49% 57.14 95.89% 0.665 0.0469 0.926
Start of Game Growth 260 28.63% 54.65 92.69% 0.665 0.316 1.604
Unlimited Undo 285 63.6% 36.28 63.51% -0.807 -0.8133 -0.153
Using Tokens but Not Events 576 63.69% 32.68 67.53% 0.68 0.6699 -1.087

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1632 20.4 6.43%
II 2384 31.01 54.15%
III 2107 34.76 83.48%
IV 960 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.217 Win Model: -0.052
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5365 71.01% 33.47 56.91%
2 1216 73.01% 34.09 62.66%
3 340 74.71% 35.16 57.65%
4 152 60.93% 37.29 65.13%
5 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
6 8 37.5% 37.38 62.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 104
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1735
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1283
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 953
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 180
Lose: Invader deck ran out 62
Lose: Adversary condition 586
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1935
Lose: Spirit destroyed 205

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)