Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 11 63.64% 20.91 -0.367 36.36% 0.163 0.6497
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 5 20.0% 10.0 -1.393 20.0% -0.151 -0.1316
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 40.0% 32.4 3.633 60.0% 0.226 0.3794
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 33.33% 0.0 -9.158 0.0% -0.345 -0.218
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 100.0% 21.0 -5.633 0.0% -0.531 -0.0274
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.851 0.0% -0.171 1.7463
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 229 51.97% 27.26 -3.971 50.66% -0.639 -0.1652
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 60.0% 34.76 0.0 56.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 60 66.67% 36.48 12.299 46.67% 0.498 1.0401
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 0.0 26.23%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 90.63% 36.84 -3.687 31.25% -0.111 1.1677
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 434 59.68% 27.73 -2.876 56.68% -0.449 -0.2261
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 415 60.96% 30.33 3.335 56.14% 0.516 0.4829
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 247 60.73% 38.08 -0.938 61.54% -0.692 -0.6792
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 129 74.42% 43.52 10.823 55.81% 0.439 0.6807
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 107 72.9% 43.32 4.753 47.66% -0.261 -0.0656
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 90.0% 47.9 -6.687 41.67% -0.147 0.2317
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 53 58.49% 27.17 -1.176 15.09% -0.422 0.8184
The Kingdom of England 0 1 407 57.99% 26.84 -0.925 51.35% 0.103 0.412
The Kingdom of England 1 3 209 63.16% 35.73 -1.441 57.89% -0.367 -0.0469
The Kingdom of England 2 4 200 66.0% 29.04 -0.438 37.0% -0.344 0.1355
The Kingdom of England 3 6 77 76.62% 33.09 -13.483 32.47% -0.774 0.2663
The Kingdom of England 4 7 111 83.78% 31.23 -10.07 19.82% -0.332 0.6672
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 0.0 20.83%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 132 75.0% 28.33 -7.795 6.82% -0.569 1.2734
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 388 63.4% 27.82 4.644 46.39% 0.571 0.9474
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 236 74.15% 29.05 -2.828 38.98% -0.632 0.2451
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 116 66.09% 31.29 -3.293 29.31% -0.751 0.4324
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 126 64.29% 31.21 7.798 20.63% -0.124 1.0166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 193 69.43% 35.21 -5.446 16.06% -0.229 1.0807
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 90 71.11% 34.96 29.319 12.22% 0.42 1.8128
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 85 38.82% 17.22 -2.866 34.12% -0.193 0.1264
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 38 36.84% 19.32 0.856 31.58% -0.268 0.2206
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 42 47.62% 17.81 -2.589 23.81% -0.382 0.0238
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 29 55.17% 27.69 4.505 27.59% -0.065 -0.0369
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 70.83% 35.58 10.697 45.83% 0.034 0.54
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 16.67% 24.67 17.495 33.33% 0.298 0.7556
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 0.0 14.81%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 364 57.97% 27.6 -4.237 55.77% -0.662 -0.419
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 348 59.48% 29.25 -1.546 54.02% -0.349 -0.3144
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 250 61.6% 32.06 -0.123 51.6% -0.444 -0.2025
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 105 61.9% 34.96 -11.816 47.62% -0.517 -0.2662
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 114 79.82% 34.65 11.616 34.21% 0.258 1.0122
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 75 65.33% 38.27 0.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 94 85.11% 34.91 -10.904 27.66% -0.242 0.6546
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 184 52.17% 28.77 0.509 60.33% 0.085 0.3251
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 98 66.33% 27.81 -8.15 39.8% -0.741 0.0128
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 89 57.3% 24.9 2.169 32.58% -0.321 0.0472
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 44 47.73% 20.0 -0.474 18.18% -0.426 0.7435
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 35 65.71% 23.8 0.565 14.29% -1.049 -0.0926
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 53 39.62% 21.7 0.385 7.55% -0.475 1.0416

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5610 64.0 28.04 54.15% -0.124 0.4029 -0.403
1 Thematic 1611 65.98 34.13 42.71% -0.336 0.5186 0.32
2 Archipelago 6 66.67 53.17 66.67% 0.183 1.2382 0.148
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1054 62.25 28.19 54.84% 0.08 0.3578 -0.645
2 Coastline 117 68.1 26.42 59.83% 0.771 0.8733 1.094
2 Fragment 33 93.94 27.52 36.36% 0.569
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.275
2 Opposite Shores 169 68.07 31.79 67.46% 0.085 0.421 0.632
2 Thematic 361 65.1 31.74 43.49% -0.878 -0.188 -0.101
2 Top to Top 25 68.0 33.8 80.0% 0.834 1.0759 -0.209
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.072 -0.7928 -0.417
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.202
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.062
3 Round (Default) 402 67.66 31.25 54.73% -0.012 -0.0063 0.006
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0% -0.042
3 Thematic 78 50.0 28.35 38.46% -0.456 -0.3717 0.161
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% 0.298 -0.3207 0.494
4 Thematic 46 47.83 29.78 50.0% 0.305 0.5731 -0.936
4 Trapezoid (Default) 161 60.62 33.11 59.01% -0.07 0.0942 -0.116
5 Other 13 23.08 14.08 15.38% -0.457 -0.8434 -0.291
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.199
6 Other 4 0.0 41.0 75.0% 0.135 0.1044 0.312
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 29 41.38 23.76 24.14% 0.168 0.2708 -0.087
6 Two Centers (Default) 17 11.76 17.59 35.29% -0.474 0.0908 -0.444
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.316

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 577 30.94 46.45% 0.571 0.8205 -0.125
Aid From Lesser Spirits 423 35.0 56.74% 0.82 0.7012 0.657
All Things Weaken 266 27.97 44.74% -0.238 0.0996 -0.292
Attenuated Essence 33 23.21 45.45% 0.558 0.5852 0.703
Back Against the Wall 422 32.36 50.95% 0.724 0.7252 0.044
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 33 25.55 48.48% 0.106 0.3237 0.241
Burn Brightest Before the End 28 33.39 67.86% 0.885 0.8663 0.207
Disintegrating Ecosystem 562 27.14 44.66% 0.011 0.4043 -0.107
Downward Spiral 641 29.59 51.64% -0.657 -0.5487 0.124
Erosion of Will 545 29.11 42.75% -0.283 0.0696 -0.136
Intensifying Exploitation 55 29.76 52.73% 0.808 1.0534 0.925
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 35.72 74.07% -0.159
Memory Fades to Dust 649 28.46 44.99% 0.168 0.415 0.046
Power Corrodes the Spirit 299 30.03 47.83% 0.905 1.1273 -0.131
Promising Farmlands 478 29.52 48.95% 0.684 0.9671 -0.168
Shattered Fragments of Power 39 32.95 58.97% 0.419 0.4957 0.975
Slow Dissolution of Will 42 25.26 47.62% 0.162 0.5595 -0.367
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 34.86 74.24% 0.867 0.1713 0.535
The Border of Life and Death 17 34.82 70.59% 0.241 -0.3601
Thriving Communities 282 28.57 49.29% 1.304 1.6608 -0.334
Thriving Crops 19 28.26 63.16% 0.32 0.1238 0.691
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.394
Unnatural Proliferation 288 29.91 47.92% 0.456 0.6186 -0.32
Untended Land Crumbles 263 29.51 46.01% 0.448 0.6796 0.034

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1516 63.31% 27.47 51.91% 0.123 1.128 -0.303
B 1579 64.99% 28.48 53.51% -0.323 0.597 -0.44
C 1602 61.94% 29.28 59.24% 0.273 1.0079 -0.239
D 1403 64.61% 27.72 52.89% -0.08 0.8979 -0.184
E 887 59.03% 29.55 59.41% 0.72 1.5397 0.123
F 1287 60.89% 29.11 55.32% -0.409 0.4651 0.092
G 1172 68.83% 28.14 50.17% 0.054 0.8636 -0.088
H 1193 60.89% 30.38 56.58% -0.24 0.5745 -0.185
East 1231 59.3% 35.21 48.9% 0.094 0.9964 -0.145
Northeast 661 58.09% 35.59 49.77% -0.125 0.6829 -0.016
Northwest 488 66.6% 33.65 45.49% -0.142 0.7576 -0.407
Southeast 237 51.48% 28.96 43.04% -0.144 0.7066 -0.041
Southwest 386 66.84% 24.19 20.98% -0.799 0.577 -2.78
West 1209 67.99% 30.57 35.57% -0.114 0.8411 -0.868

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.634
Skip Initial Invader Actions 264 21.43% 52.66 89.39% 0.628 0.0435 1.011
Start of Game Growth 331 24.68% 47.32 81.27% -0.492 -1.0057 1.127
Unlimited Undo 502 45.6% 26.84 47.21% -0.357 -0.4668 -0.144
Using Tokens but Not Events 831 56.84% 27.47 57.64% 0.457 0.4317 -1.122

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3072 13.33 4.26%
II 2953 30.1 54.35%
III 2599 34.83 84.34%
IV 1167 38.67 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.586 Win Model: 0.38
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7352 64.04% 29.25 51.16%
2 1688 65.81% 29.74 55.57%
3 484 66.12% 31.21 53.1%
4 200 59.3% 33.37 60.0%
5 23 43.48% 21.52 8.7%
6 44 11.36% 21.27 38.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2164
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1597
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1159
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1487
Lose: Invader deck ran out 70
Lose: Adversary condition 641
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2264
Lose: Spirit destroyed 234

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)