Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 85 74.12% 35.98 1.14 64.71% -0.141 0.1394
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 49 65.31% 44.76 3.51 73.47% 0.031 0.4042
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 24 70.83% 46.63 6.448 62.5% -0.319 0.5283
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 13 100.0% 43.08 4.762 46.15% -0.441 0.7967
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 94.12% 40.53 4.891 35.29% -0.921 0.6013
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 15 100.0% 37.0 2.695 13.33% -1.035 0.9934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 73.33% 43.47 3.254 26.67% -1.977 0.1156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 306 72.22% 33.12 -0.113 67.32% 0.026 0.0737
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 237 75.85% 35.46 0.991 65.82% -0.029 -0.0579
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 135 68.89% 46.62 6.63 75.56% 0.34 0.3372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 104 82.69% 44.07 5.488 51.92% -0.49 -0.2056
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 87 78.16% 48.66 7.549 52.87% -0.549 -0.1709
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 63 90.48% 48.38 8.097 41.27% -0.594 0.2393
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 37 94.59% 40.76 3.86 18.92% -1.545 -0.2961
The Kingdom of England 0 1 311 69.13% 32.04 -0.552 62.7% -0.203 0.1301
The Kingdom of England 1 3 160 71.88% 40.06 2.702 62.5% -0.287 0.1961
The Kingdom of England 2 4 125 80.8% 37.78 1.848 50.4% -0.717 0.2401
The Kingdom of England 3 6 53 94.34% 37.51 2.074 33.96% -1.18 0.397
The Kingdom of England 4 7 89 92.13% 35.47 0.998 22.47% -1.812 -0.2902
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 76.19% 39.62 3.256 19.05% -1.869 0.1945
The Kingdom of England 6 11 94 92.55% 37.01 1.516 12.77% -3.126 -0.8708
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 269 79.55% 32.42 -0.331 52.04% -0.548 -0.0237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 164 82.21% 33.05 -0.654 42.07% -0.943 -0.0517
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 108 74.77% 36.56 1.558 34.26% -1.564 0.5639
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 85 75.29% 38.81 2.834 28.24% -1.833 0.353
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 140 68.57% 36.64 2.187 16.43% -2.637 -0.4919
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 75.76% 38.33 2.697 13.13% -2.774 -0.956
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 80 75.0% 37.81 2.206 11.25% -3.172 -1.037
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 249 67.87% 31.3 -1.031 63.45% -0.23 -0.1448
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 191 68.06% 35.56 0.895 63.35% -0.156 -0.1464
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 172 73.26% 37.62 1.223 59.3% -0.506 -0.2888
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 68 85.29% 40.75 3.72 48.53% -0.546 -0.2613
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 86 87.21% 40.37 2.942 38.37% -0.947 -0.1701
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 55 78.18% 44.38 5.411 41.82% -0.998 0.167
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 92.96% 40.27 3.639 32.39% -1.371 -0.2385
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 56 66.07% 37.48 1.613 80.36% 0.631 0.5135
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 35 77.14% 40.26 2.254 62.86% -0.234 0.4544
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 57.89% 47.47 5.881 68.42% -0.153 0.2833
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 50.6 7.431 60.0% -0.471 0.8033
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 88.89% 40.33 3.1 33.33% -1.24 -0.0829
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 8.163 50.0% -0.475 1.5612
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 100.0% 29.0 0.282 0.0% -0.409 1.5408

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 3309 73.39 31.76 -1.406 59.9% -0.19 0.1651
1 Thematic 1088 71.42 39.36 1.8 50.09% -0.139 0.3587
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 648 74.65 35.05 0.569 66.67% 0.061 0.2501
2 Coastline 59 68.97 32.41 -0.709 69.49% -0.215 -0.0803
2 Fragment 19 100.0 28.84 -2.595 31.58% -0.604 -0.1785
2 Heart 26 100.0 29.0 -2.238 23.08% -0.473 -0.1827
2 Opposite Shores 137 73.13 33.66 0.08 64.23% -0.055 0.1718
2 Thematic 234 79.49 37.78 0.584 49.57% 0.193 0.2375
2 Top to Top 21 80.95 38.05 2.258 66.67% 0.572 0.6883
3 Coastline 1 100.0 45.0 6.295 100.0% 0.261 0.223
3 Other 6 83.33 31.67 -1.908 66.67% -0.065 0.337
3 Round (Default) 263 74.9 35.06 0.166 58.17% -0.155 -0.1241
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 -3.83 0.0% -0.226 -0.4791
3 Thematic 57 73.68 39.11 -0.42 52.63% -0.166 -0.5054
4 Other 2 100.0 50.0 8.967 100.0% 0.474 0.5551
4 Thematic 59 79.66 38.29 -0.963 44.07% 0.186 -0.8918
4 Trapezoid (Default) 126 63.71 37.48 1.11 67.46% -0.149 -0.1815
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 26.887 100.0% 0.717 0.4996

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 485 31.5 -2.304 47.01% -1.897 0.171
Aid From Lesser Spirits 339 34.17 -0.73 53.69% -1.546 0.3705
All Things Weaken 110 31.02 -2.802 50.91% -1.912 0.2476
Back Against the Wall 343 33.03 -1.568 49.85% -1.795 0.2976
Disintegrating Ecosystem 458 28.77 -3.791 45.2% -2.084 0.1379
Downward Spiral 528 29.91 -2.782 52.27% -1.768 0.2463
Erosion of Will 461 28.81 -3.7 40.35% -2.262 -0.0508
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33 36.24 -0.208 63.64% -1.008 -0.2964
Memory Fades to Dust 558 29.21 -3.138 47.13% -1.958 0.2576
Power Corrodes the Spirit 135 30.96 -2.377 51.11% -1.719 0.3008
Promising Farmlands 349 29.67 -3.138 44.99% -1.999 0.216
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 27 38.04 1.581 81.48% -0.227 0.1898
Thriving Communities 117 31.91 -2.484 55.56% -1.671 0.4362
Tipping Point 279 28.51 -3.888 35.48% -2.306 -0.0903
Unnatural Proliferation 108 30.2 -2.63 40.74% -2.019 0.0617
Untended Land Crumbles 110 32.63 -1.943 50.91% -1.659 0.4364

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1102 73.45% 32.54 -0.64 61.16% 0.256 -0.8174
B 1152 74.65% 32.36 -0.766 58.59% 0.195 -0.969
C 1237 70.84% 33.42 0.136 67.74% 0.637 -0.7598
D 1103 75.89% 32.89 -0.241 60.92% 0.427 -0.7314
E 250 73.09% 37.22 1.066 70.0% 0.571 -0.6856
F 527 70.53% 34.75 0.214 62.05% 0.363 -0.8628
G 519 79.34% 33.1 -0.47 52.79% 0.24 -0.9721
H 574 70.35% 35.87 0.91 61.32% 0.606 -0.6156
East 484 73.76% 39.68 1.577 51.03% 0.147 -0.7892
Northeast 470 69.57% 41.41 2.261 55.11% 0.354 -0.5151
Northwest 398 78.64% 38.2 0.454 47.99% 0.116 -0.8295
Southeast 97 65.98% 39.28 0.52 61.86% 0.076 -0.9075
Southwest 72 70.83% 33.43 -2.984 51.39% -0.516 -1.1414
West 437 79.41% 36.49 -0.32 39.59% -0.27 -0.9353

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 30.5 -4.756 70.0% -1.776 0.263
Not Using Events or Tokens 87 77.91% 30.41 -1.006 56.32% -0.088 0.1321
Skip Initial Invader Actions 192 22.28% 58.22 7.503 93.75% 1.258 0.5522
Start of Game Growth 210 26.0% 56.53 6.78 91.9% 0.868 0.4089
Unlimited Undo 194 67.03% 37.67 0.174 64.95% -0.002 -0.4042
Using Tokens but Not Events 508 68.71% 32.17 -0.913 65.35% -0.005 -0.0507

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1312 22.34 6.94%
II 2070 30.71 51.88%
III 1831 34.23 83.18%
IV 844 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.201 Win Model: -0.135
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4403 72.89% 33.68 57.53%
2 1141 76.41% 34.96 61.26%
3 327 74.92% 35.83 57.49%
4 186 69.02% 38.02 60.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 71
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1084
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 791
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 604
Lose: Invader deck ran out 63
Lose: Adversary condition 430
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1799
Lose: Spirit destroyed 233

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)