Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 4 75.0% 21.25 -2.269 25.0% -0.668 -0.7922
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 -10.564 0.0% -0.521 -1.0186
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 214 53.74% 28.2 -0.481 52.34% -0.211 0.2004
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 118 61.02% 35.35 -7.702 57.63% -0.305 0.1237
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 68.42% 35.91 -1.31 45.61% -0.382 0.1502
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 -5.516 26.23% -0.181 0.659
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 -6.278 32.26% -0.083 1.5123
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 416 61.3% 28.47 -1.916 58.17% -0.332 -0.1468
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 386 63.99% 31.12 2.843 57.51% 0.084 0.1217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 232 61.21% 39.24 4.998 63.79% 0.205 0.372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 126 74.6% 43.51 -6.777 55.56% -0.2 0.0739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 104 73.08% 43.68 -1.922 48.08% -0.501 -0.2078
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 48 60.42% 28.6 -3.167 16.67% -0.608 0.6388
The Kingdom of England 0 1 384 60.42% 27.52 -2.348 52.6% -0.423 -0.0272
The Kingdom of England 1 3 197 65.48% 36.68 4.805 59.39% 0.027 0.6251
The Kingdom of England 2 4 192 67.71% 29.8 -4.646 38.02% -0.667 -0.0479
The Kingdom of England 3 6 74 78.38% 34.14 16.111 33.78% 0.38 1.4859
The Kingdom of England 4 7 109 84.4% 31.59 26.868 20.18% 0.563 1.5703
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 65.22% 36.83 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 128 77.34% 29.21 0.0 7.03%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 371 64.15% 27.92 -4.129 46.36% -0.858 -0.2969
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 226 75.22% 29.67 -0.245 39.82% -0.112 0.7898
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 111 65.45% 31.93 -9.954 29.73% -0.348 0.8517
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 123 64.23% 31.52 0.118 21.14% -0.296 0.9769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 192 69.79% 35.39 -5.375 16.15% -0.277 1.1227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 86 73.26% 35.62 0.0 11.63%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 76 38.16% 17.29 -1.506 34.21% -0.187 0.1737
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 30 33.33% 19.57 1.992 33.33% 0.085 0.386
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 33 54.55% 19.24 -0.428 24.24% -0.047 0.2995
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 52.17% 26.26 -0.984 26.09% -0.141 0.1344
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 22 72.73% 34.36 17.035 45.45% 0.431 1.2784
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 14.4 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 -5.818 14.81% -0.24 0.8785
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 357 58.26% 27.84 0.15 56.3% -0.295 -0.0422
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 325 61.23% 29.92 -2.682 55.08% -0.363 -0.1365
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 233 63.52% 32.99 -3.404 53.22% -0.925 -0.6598
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 101 62.38% 35.52 10.607 48.51% 0.075 0.5084
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 112 79.46% 34.53 -5.618 33.93% -0.173 0.6076
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 74 64.86% 37.88 -8.223 39.19% -0.409 0.7408
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 93 86.02% 35.29 2.142 27.96% -0.122 0.9161
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 171 52.63% 29.1 -0.574 60.82% -0.389 -0.0836
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 94 68.09% 28.99 -7.775 41.49% -0.899 -0.1439
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 75 56.0% 24.39 7.726 32.0% 0.217 0.7246
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 38 50.0% 20.95 -5.82 18.42% -0.165 0.6556
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 27 62.96% 25.67 0.0 18.52%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 60.0% 45.2 0.0 40.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 51 39.22% 22.0 -2.69 7.84% -0.368 1.3645

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5304 65.05 28.64 55.13% 0.023 0.4152 -0.414
1 Thematic 1563 66.92 34.48 42.99% 0.456 1.1538 0.272
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.14
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1008 62.81 28.6 55.36% -0.013 0.1772 -0.596
2 Coastline 112 66.67 26.13 58.04% 0.117 -0.0744 1.09
2 Fragment 31 93.55 27.23 32.26% 0.541
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.3
2 Opposite Shores 164 67.7 31.98 67.68% 0.365 0.4913 0.6
2 Thematic 333 68.47 33.05 45.35% 0.143 0.7539 -0.23
2 Top to Top 22 68.18 32.36 77.27% -0.204
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.221
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.067
3 Round (Default) 374 69.79 32.01 55.61% 0.119 0.1047 0.008
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.039
3 Thematic 71 53.52 30.01 40.85% -0.294 -0.5066 0.173
4 Other 8 62.5 32.75 62.5% 0.142
4 Thematic 45 46.67 29.02 48.89% -0.223 -0.1878 -0.846
4 Trapezoid (Default) 154 61.44 33.27 59.09% 0.095 0.1264 -0.147
5 Other 12 25.0 15.25 16.67% -0.131 -0.4181 -0.258
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.19
6 Other 3 0.0 43.0 66.67% 0.239 0.1421 0.316
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 27 44.44 23.3 22.22% -0.067
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 15.38 17.08 30.77% -0.414 0.0057 -0.425
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.294

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 560 31.09 46.25% 0.754 0.8222 -0.109
Aid From Lesser Spirits 411 35.01 56.45% 0.407 0.2673 0.659
All Things Weaken 257 28.05 44.75% -0.634 -0.451 -0.319
Attenuated Essence 25 25.24 48.0% 0.058 0.1012 0.738
Back Against the Wall 415 32.32 50.84% 0.632 0.5798 0.018
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 28 26.04 50.0% 0.085 0.2482 0.425
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 31.59 68.18% 0.158 0.1877 -0.241
Disintegrating Ecosystem 541 27.37 44.55% 0.249 0.556 -0.117
Downward Spiral 630 29.67 51.75% 0.83 0.9042 0.125
Erosion of Will 532 29.33 43.05% 0.287 0.4442 -0.108
Intensifying Exploitation 46 29.76 54.35% 0.098 0.252 0.863
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 79 35.73 74.68% -0.176 -0.6407 -0.164
Memory Fades to Dust 630 28.52 44.76% 0.076 0.2866 0.048
Power Corrodes the Spirit 291 29.86 47.08% -0.111 -0.0171 -0.157
Promising Farmlands 464 29.3 48.06% 0.216 0.5583 -0.234
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 31.64 58.33% 0.53 0.6123 0.793
Slow Dissolution of Will 36 25.22 50.0% 0.139 0.5809 -0.228
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 61 35.23 73.77% 0.89 0.2299 0.507
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.31 68.75% -0.113 -0.5633
Thriving Communities 269 28.38 47.96% 0.774 0.9797 -0.348
Thriving Crops 17 26.82 58.82% -0.118 -0.3204 0.649
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.358
Unnatural Proliferation 270 30.04 47.04% 0.211 0.2873 -0.296
Untended Land Crumbles 253 29.6 45.85% 0.363 0.56 0.068

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1439 64.41% 27.98 52.61% -0.902 0.0373 -0.218
B 1512 65.56% 28.78 53.7% 0.103 0.9641 -0.45
C 1507 63.33% 29.81 59.99% -0.102 0.6016 -0.207
D 1336 65.91% 28.13 53.37% -0.311 0.5502 -0.152
E 819 59.05% 30.05 59.83% 0.556 1.2369 0.074
F 1205 62.04% 29.9 56.76% 0.017 0.8024 0.119
G 1103 70.24% 28.56 50.41% -0.214 0.5623 -0.079
H 1123 62.38% 31.16 57.79% 0.356 1.0862 -0.121
East 1172 60.67% 35.76 49.66% 0.436 1.2894 -0.158
Northeast 626 59.27% 36.35 50.96% 0.134 0.8427 0.04
Northwest 464 68.75% 34.45 46.34% -0.488 0.3684 -0.333
Southeast 227 53.3% 29.44 43.61% 0.079 0.9273 -0.012
Southwest 372 69.09% 24.87 21.51% -0.672 0.7226 -2.711
West 1163 69.73% 31.15 36.03% -0.523 0.3643 -0.866

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.287 0.1998 -0.65
Skip Initial Invader Actions 255 22.22% 53.56 90.59% 0.846 0.1176 0.857
Start of Game Growth 308 26.62% 49.93 85.39% 0.205 -0.2448 1.287
Unlimited Undo 451 48.17% 28.01 48.56% -1.339 -1.37 -0.074
Using Tokens but Not Events 793 57.44% 27.69 57.76% -0.485 -0.6272 -1.158

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2818 14.19 4.54%
II 2847 30.29 54.34%
III 2497 34.84 83.98%
IV 1129 38.62 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.301 Win Model: 0.15
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6984 65.13% 29.83 51.95%
2 1605 66.6% 30.2 56.07%
3 451 68.07% 31.86 53.88%
4 192 59.69% 33.53 59.9%
5 22 45.45% 22.5 9.09%
6 37 13.51% 20.65 35.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 127
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2070
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1539
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1121
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1253
Lose: Invader deck ran out 66
Lose: Adversary condition 632
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2209
Lose: Spirit destroyed 230

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-25 06:09:35 (Pacific Time)