Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 4 75.0% 21.25 0.606 25.0% -0.401 -0.4358
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 -9.133 0.0% -0.509 -0.9607
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -9.898 0.0% -0.305 -0.4213
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 100.0% 21.0 5.371 0.0% -0.152 0.2328
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 221 53.39% 27.77 -1.362 51.58% -0.295 0.1007
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 60.0% 34.76 -5.374 56.67% -0.514 -0.188
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 58 68.97% 36.5 23.923 46.55% 0.528 1.0047
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 -4.185 26.23% -0.065 0.8658
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 0.0 32.26%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 425 60.24% 28.05 -2.529 57.41% -0.389 -0.1737
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 397 62.72% 30.82 1.513 56.93% 0.064 0.0793
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 236 61.02% 39.2 5.638 63.56% 0.401 0.5003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 126 74.6% 43.51 0.0 55.56%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 104 73.08% 43.68 -8.22 48.08% -0.14 0.1976
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 50 60.0% 28.26 0.805 16.0% -0.284 1.0009
The Kingdom of England 0 1 391 60.1% 27.35 -2.558 52.17% -0.582 -0.2721
The Kingdom of England 1 3 200 65.0% 36.72 8.026 59.5% 0.418 0.7827
The Kingdom of England 2 4 195 67.18% 29.43 -7.534 37.44% -1.049 -0.4629
The Kingdom of England 3 6 75 78.67% 33.97 6.118 33.33% 0.09 1.1931
The Kingdom of England 4 7 110 84.55% 31.52 15.502 20.0% 0.402 1.4399
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 -10.24 20.83% -0.512 1.2071
The Kingdom of England 6 11 129 76.74% 28.98 -7.592 6.98% -0.269 1.6298
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 377 63.66% 27.8 -1.966 46.15% -0.691 -0.2642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 228 75.44% 29.62 -1.839 39.91% -0.378 0.4025
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 111 65.45% 31.93 0.0 29.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 125 64.0% 31.25 -3.529 20.8% -0.704 0.6402
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 192 69.79% 35.39 -5.504 16.15% -0.217 1.0779
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 89 70.79% 34.42 -7.096 11.24% -0.501 0.9754
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 80 38.75% 17.13 -1.487 33.75% -0.2 0.0452
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 33 33.33% 18.24 -0.171 30.3% -0.224 0.0775
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 33 54.55% 19.24 6.634 24.24% 0.34 0.609
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 26 57.69% 27.42 7.806 26.92% 0.06 0.2281
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 22 72.73% 34.36 0.0 45.45%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 14.4 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 0.0 14.81%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 358 58.1% 27.77 -1.087 56.15% -0.438 -0.1949
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 339 60.47% 29.66 4.146 54.87% 0.682 0.7756
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 239 63.18% 32.61 0.81 52.72% -0.134 0.1185
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 103 63.11% 35.64 9.215 48.54% 0.322 0.6569
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 112 79.46% 34.53 -6.807 33.93% -0.164 0.5853
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 75 65.33% 38.27 6.958 40.0% 0.244 1.3789
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 93 86.02% 35.29 0.0 27.96%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 176 52.84% 29.01 -2.189 60.8% -0.516 -0.3138
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 94 68.09% 28.99 -7.035 41.49% -0.577 0.166
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 82 59.76% 25.24 5.564 32.93% -0.185 0.0371
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 40 47.5% 19.9 -6.137 17.5% -0.501 0.4052
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 29 62.07% 24.72 -3.488 17.24% -0.404 0.7821
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 -7.844 33.33% -0.262 1.5213
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 51 39.22% 22.0 0.0 7.84%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5414 64.75 28.4 54.75% -0.074 0.1671 -0.455
1 Thematic 1579 66.81 34.47 43.07% 0.373 0.8989 0.275
2 Archipelago 5 60.0 53.4 60.0% 0.129
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1026 62.49 28.44 55.17% 0.259 0.2669 -0.633
2 Coastline 113 66.96 26.27 58.41% 0.202 -0.0672 1.08
2 Fragment 33 93.94 27.52 36.36% 0.583 0.2749 0.53
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.308
2 Opposite Shores 165 67.9 31.88 67.27% -0.186 -0.2548 0.589
2 Thematic 339 67.55 32.84 44.84% -0.047 0.3328 -0.113
2 Top to Top 22 68.18 32.36 77.27% -0.209
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.208
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.069
3 Round (Default) 389 68.12 31.25 54.24% -0.759 -0.9656 0.025
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0% -0.225 -0.8528 -0.041
3 Thematic 72 52.78 29.6 40.28% -0.345 -0.5729 0.216
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% -0.105 -0.8714 0.095
4 Thematic 45 46.67 29.02 48.89% -0.947
4 Trapezoid (Default) 155 61.04 33.06 58.71% 0.465 0.0882 -0.132
5 Other 12 25.0 15.25 16.67% -0.222
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.187
6 Other 3 0.0 43.0 66.67% 0.312
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 27 44.44 23.3 22.22% -0.075
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 15.38 17.08 30.77% -0.328 -0.238 -0.397
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.293

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 562 31.04 46.26% 0.754 0.7951 -0.093
Aid From Lesser Spirits 416 34.97 56.49% 0.693 0.6075 0.652
All Things Weaken 263 28.07 44.87% 0.565 0.7756 -0.303
Attenuated Essence 28 23.32 42.86% -0.359 -0.3873 0.748
Back Against the Wall 418 32.33 50.96% 1.089 1.1235 0.016
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 31 25.84 48.39% 0.059 0.2098 0.425
Burn Brightest Before the End 23 31.26 65.22% -0.187 -0.1794 -0.413
Disintegrating Ecosystem 550 27.41 45.09% 1.056 1.2337 -0.104
Downward Spiral 635 29.74 51.97% 1.062 1.126 0.125
Erosion of Will 536 29.26 42.91% -0.266 -0.1399 -0.12
Intensifying Exploitation 49 28.37 51.02% -0.205 -0.0854 0.749
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 35.72 74.07% 0.063 -0.5443 -0.163
Memory Fades to Dust 639 28.48 44.76% 0.482 0.6906 0.032
Power Corrodes the Spirit 294 29.98 47.28% 0.232 0.3543 -0.14
Promising Farmlands 469 29.42 48.61% 0.983 1.179 -0.22
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 32.24 57.89% -0.117 -0.1214 0.982
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 24.95 48.65% 0.521 0.839 -0.225
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 62 34.66 72.58% 0.759 0.0536 0.526
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.31 68.75% -0.266 -0.7305
Thriving Communities 275 28.42 48.36% 0.607 0.7457 -0.337
Thriving Crops 18 26.94 61.11% 0.392 0.116 0.666
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.366
Unnatural Proliferation 276 30.0 47.46% 0.639 0.7137 -0.29
Untended Land Crumbles 256 29.63 45.7% 0.162 0.322 0.05

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1469 63.91% 27.72 52.14% -0.97 0.004 -0.206
B 1534 65.53% 28.7 53.65% 0.231 1.1225 -0.425
C 1542 62.48% 29.4 59.27% -0.281 0.4114 -0.206
D 1367 65.37% 27.89 53.04% 0.087 0.9786 -0.159
E 852 58.87% 29.6 59.04% 0.202 0.9284 0.105
F 1227 61.91% 29.61 56.15% -0.19 0.6344 0.139
G 1125 69.75% 28.34 50.22% -0.157 0.6089 -0.077
H 1145 62.05% 30.91 57.47% 0.038 0.8138 -0.102
East 1192 60.4% 35.7 49.5% 0.147 0.8908 -0.128
Northeast 634 59.46% 36.24 50.63% -0.128 0.7159 -0.021
Northwest 465 68.82% 34.46 46.45% -0.406 0.3395 -0.358
Southeast 231 52.38% 29.2 43.29% 0.204 1.0716 -0.033
Southwest 376 68.35% 24.61 21.28% -0.955 0.341 -2.736
West 1169 69.46% 31.1 36.01% 0.384 1.3547 -0.837

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.435 -0.0047 -0.641
Skip Initial Invader Actions 256 22.13% 53.59 90.63% 0.68 -0.1177 0.856
Start of Game Growth 310 26.44% 49.8 85.16% 0.454 0.0411 1.281
Unlimited Undo 461 47.54% 27.82 48.37% -0.19 -0.236 -0.062
Using Tokens but Not Events 796 57.47% 27.65 57.66% -0.044 -0.1167 -1.149

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2909 13.84 4.47%
II 2880 30.21 54.2%
III 2537 34.83 84.15%
IV 1140 38.63 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.342 Win Model: 0.064
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7116 64.83% 29.63 51.69%
2 1630 66.38% 30.05 55.89%
3 467 66.6% 31.16 52.68%
4 194 59.59% 33.34 59.79%
5 22 45.45% 22.5 9.09%
6 37 13.51% 20.65 35.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 129
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2107
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1553
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1132
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1339
Lose: Invader deck ran out 67
Lose: Adversary condition 634
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2229
Lose: Spirit destroyed 231

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-09 16:35:15 (Pacific Time)