Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 135 71.85% 36.03 -2.249 65.93% -0.317 -0.1065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 88 70.45% 43.36 -12.598 70.45% -0.612 -0.1777
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 43 72.09% 42.16 -7.336 53.49% -0.466 0.2664
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 35 85.71% 37.86 1.018 37.14% -0.175 0.8828
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 6.463 32.0% -0.34 0.9545
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 0.0 1.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 20 65.0% 41.6 5.248 25.0% -0.308 1.6326
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 321 70.72% 32.44 -2.448 66.04% -0.387 -0.2893
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 294 72.11% 34.62 1.433 63.95% -0.081 -0.1727
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 167 67.07% 45.84 -0.224 74.85% -0.011 -0.0738
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 104 79.81% 47.14 3.737 58.65% -0.239 0.0225
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 83 79.52% 48.36 12.894 53.01% 0.05 0.1125
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 79.31% 44.66 -5.833 27.59% -0.397 0.886
The Kingdom of England 0 1 295 67.8% 30.52 -0.682 58.31% -0.154 0.0218
The Kingdom of England 1 3 152 73.03% 41.31 13.225 66.45% 0.359 0.5733
The Kingdom of England 2 4 134 79.85% 37.36 6.392 48.51% 0.346 1.0994
The Kingdom of England 3 6 48 91.67% 38.0 23.29 33.33% 0.663 1.824
The Kingdom of England 4 7 96 88.54% 33.75 -6.033 20.83% -0.858 0.1568
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 75.0% 42.35 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 106 87.74% 33.1 -7.581 7.55% -0.703 1.3157
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 290 74.14% 32.8 -5.467 54.14% -0.893 -0.5396
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 187 81.82% 33.31 1.693 44.39% 0.526 1.4948
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 85 67.86% 36.66 0.634 34.12% -0.272 0.8161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 89 77.53% 36.85 7.319 23.6% -0.112 1.276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 185 70.81% 36.09 0.0 16.76%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 103 77.67% 37.83 0.0 12.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 70 81.43% 40.57 0.0 14.29%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 21 66.67% 27.86 -4.081 57.14% -0.944 -1.0306
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 75.0% 41.0 1.893 75.0% -0.006 0.4277
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 22.4 -4.081 20.0% -0.321 0.083
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 33.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 100.0% 40.8 2.933 60.0% -0.126 0.4378
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 0.0 2.528 0.0% -0.01 0.7297
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 8 75.0% 56.75 -6.211 37.5% -0.34 0.9375
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 261 64.37% 31.75 -1.639 63.98% -0.189 -0.0387
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 235 71.06% 34.56 -2.707 61.7% -0.71 -0.7201
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 181 70.17% 37.82 2.942 61.33% 0.673 0.9047
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 66 81.82% 46.64 11.151 63.64% 0.202 0.5477
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 86.96% 39.84 -8.547 39.13% -0.24 0.3771
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 53 73.58% 44.06 0.272 43.4% -0.298 0.6499
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 74 87.84% 39.45 -5.838 32.43% -0.507 0.2983
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 108 66.67% 38.15 7.111 79.63% 0.308 0.3502
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 69 81.16% 35.39 -2.76 50.72% -0.347 0.2567
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 44 68.18% 34.66 -3.761 45.45% -0.666 -0.3732
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13 46.15% 40.0 5.458 46.15% 0.186 1.2913
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 39.07 -6.56 33.33% -0.163 0.8672
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 24.596 66.67% 0.35 1.782
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16 56.25% 41.94 -6.011 12.5% -0.857 1.0994

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3919 70.88 32.45 61.44% 0.19 0.3997 -0.553
1 Thematic 1312 72.87 37.34 45.05% -0.274 0.3243 0.183
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 71.33 66.67% 0.067
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 726 71.88 33.39 64.74% -0.606 -0.4462 -0.331
2 Coastline 68 74.63 31.15 69.12% 0.683 0.7437 0.892
2 Fragment 24 100.0 27.92 33.33% 0.756
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.469
2 Opposite Shores 133 66.92 33.57 68.42% 0.389 0.5222 0.322
2 Thematic 245 79.59 38.96 52.24% -0.22 0.4159 -0.548
2 Top to Top 15 73.33 36.07 86.67% -0.262
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.364
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% -0.075
3 Round (Default) 279 75.63 34.84 58.42% -0.135 -0.1761 -0.204
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.051
3 Thematic 53 67.92 38.79 52.83% -0.234 -0.1978 0.176
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 100.0% 0.591
4 Thematic 32 56.25 37.72 65.63% -0.024 -0.0417 -0.326
4 Trapezoid (Default) 120 63.03 37.22 64.17% 0.184 -0.0027 -0.435
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 100.0% 0.41
6 Thematic 4 75.0 46.75 25.0% -0.011
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 50.0 55.5 100.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.348 -1.1205 -0.089

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 482 31.81 46.68% 0.808 1.0796 -0.476
Aid From Lesser Spirits 367 35.47 56.13% 0.741 0.7795 0.257
All Things Weaken 203 29.43 44.83% 0.359 0.8198 -0.832
Attenuated Essence 1 10.0 0.0% -0.18 0.0253
Back Against the Wall 357 32.82 50.14% 0.172 0.334 -0.437
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 25.33 66.67% 0.802 1.2165
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 22.25 50.0% -0.032 0.2725
Disintegrating Ecosystem 459 28.76 45.32% -0.142 0.3845 -0.519
Downward Spiral 531 31.08 52.92% 0.908 1.2611 -0.315
Erosion of Will 464 29.51 42.24% 0.112 0.5203 -0.484
Intensifying Exploitation 2 40.0 100.0% 0.436 0.8226
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 65 38.14 78.46% -0.157 -0.6823 -0.077
Memory Fades to Dust 543 29.79 46.41% 1.301 1.7823 -0.334
Power Corrodes the Spirit 250 30.43 47.2% -0.227 0.0778 -0.572
Promising Farmlands 386 30.47 48.19% 0.007 0.5927 -0.467
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 22.0 33.33% 0.202 0.3813
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 35.0 100.0% 0.974 1.5082
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 39.37 80.43% 0.718 0.0399 0.203
The Border of Life and Death 3 36.0 100.0% 0.541 0.4115
Thriving Communities 230 29.57 48.7% -0.153 0.3397 -0.604
Thriving Crops 2 39.0 100.0% 0.441 0.5295
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.001
Unnatural Proliferation 223 29.85 45.29% -0.268 0.0288 -0.385
Untended Land Crumbles 206 30.15 44.66% -0.73 -0.3719 -0.585

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1047 70.92% 32.43 59.98% -0.328 0.5125 0.158
B 1104 72.2% 32.86 60.24% -1.022 -0.2434 -0.139
C 1106 69.75% 33.36 66.73% 0.101 0.7555 0.315
D 960 74.08% 32.4 60.94% -0.027 0.7725 0.192
E 520 67.24% 35.33 69.42% 0.347 0.9762 0.434
F 875 67.85% 34.22 64.8% 0.441 1.1606 0.349
G 829 78.62% 32.67 55.97% -0.44 0.3013 0.409
H 857 67.76% 34.83 63.59% -0.055 0.593 0.222
East 902 69.29% 41.17 56.1% -0.464 0.1402 0.255
Northeast 468 68.16% 42.27 58.55% 0.326 1.2074 0.444
Northwest 362 75.69% 38.98 52.21% 0.345 1.0183 -0.102
Southeast 144 65.97% 36.97 54.17% -0.33 0.3059 0.293
Southwest 283 81.63% 27.99 20.85% -0.636 0.5289 -2.619
West 941 77.26% 34.67 38.79% -0.757 0.2073 -0.602

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 32.9 80.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 84 76.54% 30.61 59.52% -0.448
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 22.22% 57.5 96.31% 0.986 0.4514 0.926
Start of Game Growth 258 28.46% 54.93 93.02% 0.728 0.3982 1.603
Unlimited Undo 272 66.02% 37.58 65.81% -0.663 -0.6846 -0.211
Using Tokens but Not Events 563 64.47% 33.05 68.21% 0.808 0.7541 -1.081

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1570 21.03 6.62%
II 2363 31.04 54.13%
III 2089 34.74 83.39%
IV 947 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.436 Win Model: -0.206
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5271 71.46% 33.74 57.26%
2 1202 73.37% 34.23 62.81%
3 337 75.07% 35.37 57.86%
4 150 61.07% 37.7 66.0%
5 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
6 7 42.86% 42.71 71.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 103
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1719
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1271
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 941
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 122
Lose: Invader deck ran out 62
Lose: Adversary condition 583
Win: Sacrifice victory 38
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1926
Lose: Spirit destroyed 204

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)