Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 162 62.96% 32.15 -4.951 58.64% -0.549 -0.2028
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 94 69.15% 41.67 -7.785 68.09% -0.433 -0.1556
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 49 73.47% 40.06 -11.361 51.02% -0.433 0.3789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 44 79.55% 34.75 5.465 34.09% -0.154 0.8446
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 0.0 32.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 178 89.33% 25.04 -4.453 1.12% -0.084 1.2137
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 24 70.83% 39.79 10.402 20.83% -0.531 1.3999
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 357 66.67% 30.5 -2.751 62.18% -0.569 -0.3532
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 327 66.97% 32.82 1.115 60.86% 0.111 0.0414
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 191 65.45% 43.28 4.559 70.16% 0.211 0.1277
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 113 78.76% 44.99 0.158 56.64% 0.007 0.2231
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 90 75.56% 47.59 14.333 53.33% 0.73 0.955
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 36 66.67% 36.78 -8.0 22.22% -0.84 0.5166
The Kingdom of England 0 1 326 64.72% 29.27 1.529 56.13% 0.176 0.3853
The Kingdom of England 1 3 166 69.28% 39.49 3.043 63.25% 0.096 0.383
The Kingdom of England 2 4 159 77.36% 34.58 -1.883 44.03% -1.019 -0.2855
The Kingdom of England 3 6 54 90.74% 38.46 8.418 37.04% 0.479 1.6976
The Kingdom of England 4 7 99 87.88% 33.39 -0.012 21.21% -0.255 1.026
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 71.43% 40.33 -8.992 23.81% -0.29 1.2006
The Kingdom of England 6 11 113 84.96% 31.77 3.13 7.08% -0.477 1.518
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 314 70.06% 30.48 -6.717 50.32% -1.222 -0.8089
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 198 79.8% 31.75 -4.149 42.42% -0.02 0.7872
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 88 66.67% 35.74 -6.615 32.95% -0.211 0.8916
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 97 74.23% 34.59 0.921 21.65% -0.757 0.6404
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 186 70.43% 35.89 -7.995 16.67% -0.181 1.3334
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 109 76.15% 37.48 -1.457 13.76% -0.261 0.5232
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 83 75.9% 36.9 -1.615 12.05% -1.92 -0.4439
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 43 48.84% 20.33 -6.2 39.53% -1.131 -0.9188
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 14 21.43% 13.29 -5.431 21.43% -0.314 0.0706
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 16 68.75% 20.63 -0.169 18.75% -0.17 0.2082
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 66.67% 28.89 -2.625 33.33% -0.456 -0.1835
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 85.71% 29.14 -9.95 42.86% -0.215 0.6463
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 15 46.67% 42.47 4.366 26.67% 0.0 1.1414
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 287 61.67% 30.7 -0.564 62.37% 0.072 0.2674
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 258 67.83% 32.81 -1.556 58.91% -0.027 0.069
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 197 66.5% 36.28 -1.183 59.39% -0.212 -0.1032
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 71 80.28% 44.62 -5.671 60.56% -0.17 0.2977
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 101 85.15% 37.5 -6.358 36.63% -0.936 -0.3158
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 59 67.8% 39.58 -7.54 38.98% -0.629 0.3578
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 89 87.64% 36.6 0.636 29.21% -1.321 -0.3234
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 133 57.89% 33.55 -0.361 69.92% 0.277 0.3685
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 77 77.92% 34.39 0.214 49.35% -0.311 0.3491
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 50 64.0% 30.76 -7.353 40.0% -0.567 -0.1726
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 19 47.37% 30.68 -0.54 31.58% -0.488 0.5432
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 19 68.42% 32.11 -2.804 26.32% -0.467 0.4915
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 25 44.0% 36.4 1.277 16.0% -0.109 1.8726

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4432 68.54 30.81 58.75% 0.225 0.4254 -0.647
1 Thematic 1394 70.59 36.31 44.33% 0.461 1.1809 0.109
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% -0.121 0.1335 -0.069
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 814 68.52 31.66 61.43% -0.146 -0.1385 -0.521
2 Coastline 74 75.34 31.72 68.92% 0.102 -0.1032 1.182
2 Fragment 28 96.43 28.21 32.14% -0.44 -0.7169 0.745
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.522
2 Opposite Shores 142 66.91 33.06 68.31% 0.697 0.7543 0.287
2 Thematic 271 74.17 36.4 49.45% -1.009 -0.5576 -0.467
2 Top to Top 18 77.78 35.28 83.33% 0.362 0.2644 -0.244
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.251
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% 0.524 0.4955 -0.067
3 Round (Default) 309 73.79 33.4 56.63% -0.383 -0.6091 -0.216
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.05
3 Thematic 56 64.29 36.71 50.0% -0.053 0.1436 0.294
4 Other 5 40.0 41.8 100.0% 0.585
4 Thematic 36 52.78 33.53 58.33% -0.247 -0.4456 -0.49
4 Trapezoid (Default) 132 61.83 35.02 60.61% -0.241 -0.4845 -0.419
5 Other 6 33.33 25.83 33.33% 0.119 -0.9383 0.371
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.175 -0.9116 -0.348
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.313 -0.37
6 Thematic 13 38.46 26.46 23.08% 0.099 0.8536 -0.016
6 Two Centers (Default) 7 28.57 31.71 57.14% -0.02 -0.5993 -0.086
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.085

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 507 31.58 46.35% -0.047 0.1133 -0.287
Aid From Lesser Spirits 384 35.07 55.99% 0.101 0.0149 0.446
All Things Weaken 219 28.95 44.29% -0.545 -0.2025 -0.574
Attenuated Essence 7 15.57 28.57% 0.515 0.5893 -0.138
Back Against the Wall 376 32.62 50.53% 0.603 0.6778 -0.167
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 21.69 46.15% -0.173 0.0181
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 28.33 50.0% -0.265
Disintegrating Ecosystem 484 28.36 45.45% 0.354 0.7264 -0.291
Downward Spiral 569 30.55 52.9% 0.691 0.8277 -0.079
Erosion of Will 490 29.3 42.04% 0.289 0.5841 -0.267
Intensifying Exploitation 15 28.53 40.0% -0.164 0.0741 -0.073
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 70 36.61 75.71% -0.058 -0.5898 -0.138
Memory Fades to Dust 585 29.2 45.81% -0.077 0.2034 -0.105
Power Corrodes the Spirit 265 30.23 46.79% -1.023 -0.8695 -0.313
Promising Farmlands 413 30.06 48.43% 0.219 0.5652 -0.3
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 31.5 56.25% 0.889 1.0835 0.399
Slow Dissolution of Will 13 30.85 69.23% 0.194 0.6449 -0.397
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 36.96 75.51% -0.276 -1.0167 0.305
The Border of Life and Death 6 45.17 100.0% 0.853 0.4197
Thriving Communities 251 29.02 49.0% 1.237 1.5358 -0.51
Thriving Crops 4 35.5 75.0%
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.211
Unnatural Proliferation 240 29.76 46.25% 0.995 1.1399 -0.172
Untended Land Crumbles 226 30.12 45.58% 0.354 0.6536 -0.199

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1195 67.56% 30.11 56.07% -0.366 0.6277 -0.034
B 1235 69.87% 31.43 57.81% -0.145 0.7727 -0.193
C 1247 67.47% 32.17 64.23% 0.542 1.2848 0.281
D 1089 70.61% 30.35 57.02% -0.654 0.2977 0.111
E 628 63.8% 32.8 64.97% 0.28 1.0604 0.304
F 982 65.65% 32.45 61.61% -0.335 0.5572 0.32
G 909 76.1% 31.55 54.68% 0.596 1.4518 0.369
H 954 65.58% 33.33 61.32% 0.35 1.1984 0.111
East 985 65.79% 39.1 53.6% -0.11 0.6593 0.167
Northeast 517 64.41% 40.15 55.9% -0.222 0.5657 0.291
Northwest 392 73.21% 37.29 50.51% -0.784 0.1998 -0.18
Southeast 175 57.71% 32.99 48.57% -0.797 0.0772 0.309
Southwest 317 74.76% 26.45 20.82% 0.116 1.3242 -2.55
West 1012 74.11% 33.31 37.94% -0.313 0.6212 -0.639

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 32.9 80.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 94 72.53% 29.4 57.45% -0.687 -0.181 -0.7
Skip Initial Invader Actions 234 21.88% 55.61 94.02% 1.253 0.618 1.107
Start of Game Growth 277 27.55% 53.1 90.61% 1.253 0.8635 1.373
Unlimited Undo 343 54.55% 31.93 56.27% -0.979 -0.9347 -0.128
Using Tokens but Not Events 631 62.05% 30.97 64.18% -0.091 -0.1179 -1.223

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1988 17.67 5.68%
II 2545 30.7 54.11%
III 2226 34.75 83.65%
IV 1013 38.22 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.312 Win Model: 0.064
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5887 68.92% 32.11 55.1%
2 1321 71.06% 32.91 60.64%
3 370 72.7% 33.78 55.95%
4 167 59.64% 35.35 62.28%
5 7 28.57% 43.43 28.57%
6 20 25.0% 22.8 35.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1837
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1369
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1006
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 500
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 602
Win: Sacrifice victory 41
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2026
Lose: Spirit destroyed 214

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)