Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 186 57.53% 29.47 -2.278 54.3% -0.318 0.1262
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 109 66.06% 38.27 2.709 62.39% -0.074 0.2335
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 53 67.92% 37.04 -7.38 47.17% -0.629 0.1457
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 53 73.58% 30.51 -2.444 30.19% -0.864 0.1037
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 0.0 32.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 180 88.33% 24.76 -4.963 1.11% -0.113 1.3229
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 25 68.0% 38.2 -4.643 20.0% -0.115 1.9818
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 372 65.05% 29.78 0.284 60.75% 0.05 0.2895
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 343 65.89% 31.89 -3.128 59.18% -0.568 -0.4529
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 201 64.18% 42.1 1.595 68.16% -0.096 0.0123
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 122 76.23% 44.32 13.496 56.56% 0.875 1.0977
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 94 75.53% 46.79 7.662 52.13% -0.216 0.0724
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 69.23% 33.95 -1.578 20.51% -0.009 1.4767
The Kingdom of England 0 1 338 63.02% 28.73 -4.037 55.03% -0.537 -0.2094
The Kingdom of England 1 3 177 67.8% 38.03 2.845 61.02% 0.249 0.5521
The Kingdom of England 2 4 173 72.83% 31.88 -6.388 40.46% -1.221 -0.4934
The Kingdom of England 3 6 65 83.08% 33.85 -3.307 32.31% -1.002 0.1925
The Kingdom of England 4 7 104 85.58% 31.79 -8.64 20.19% -0.781 0.4365
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 65.22% 36.83 -5.367 21.74% -0.153 1.5191
The Kingdom of England 6 11 120 80.83% 29.92 -5.333 6.67% -0.727 1.3336
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 331 68.28% 29.75 0.489 49.24% 0.04 0.5947
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 211 78.2% 30.69 0.736 41.23% -0.204 0.4777
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 100 66.67% 34.62 2.728 33.0% -0.214 0.8882
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 105 70.48% 33.25 7.466 21.9% 0.499 1.8905
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 188 70.21% 35.66 1.764 16.49% -0.306 1.16
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 4.738 13.64% -0.171 0.8995
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 83 75.9% 36.9 0.0 12.05%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 49 44.9% 19.06 1.245 36.73% 0.124 0.3702
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 19 31.58% 20.26 7.427 36.84% 0.433 1.0636
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 22 59.09% 20.5 -0.261 22.73% -0.034 0.4285
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 58.33% 27.17 0.614 33.33% -0.161 0.3043
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 12 75.0% 24.67 -3.195 33.33% -0.401 0.3991
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 0.0 -5.501 0.0% -0.127 0.4372
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 50.0% 33.91 -5.341 18.18% -0.057 0.91
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 309 59.87% 29.12 -2.11 58.9% -0.292 -0.087
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 288 64.58% 30.76 -1.904 55.56% -0.374 -0.3384
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 217 66.82% 34.5 0.249 55.76% -0.503 -0.2892
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 87 66.67% 37.18 -6.716 50.57% -1.483 -1.1233
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 108 82.41% 35.81 -1.251 35.19% -0.048 0.6497
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 65 67.69% 38.88 2.578 38.46% 0.071 0.8675
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90 86.67% 36.19 0.0 28.89%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 147 54.42% 31.86 -2.334 66.67% -0.151 0.019
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 82 73.17% 32.29 0.0 46.34%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 58 56.9% 26.52 -7.678 34.48% -0.809 -0.5902
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 48.48% 22.76 -5.435 21.21% -1.068 0.0286
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 20 65.0% 30.5 -9.447 25.0% -0.43 0.5461
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 38 47.37% 26.82 -4.421 10.53% -0.627 1.0411

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4752 67.12 29.84 57.18% 0.211 0.2419 -0.548
1 Thematic 1455 69.21 35.47 43.57% 0.134 0.5663 0.127
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.081
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 893 65.43 29.83 57.67% -1.082 -1.131 -0.692
2 Coastline 98 69.07 26.93 58.16% 0.629 0.5289 1.299
2 Fragment 30 96.67 26.87 30.0% 0.498
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.439
2 Opposite Shores 146 67.13 33.07 68.49% 0.887 0.7074 0.477
2 Thematic 301 72.43 34.85 46.84% 0.287 0.474 -0.319
2 Top to Top 20 70.0 31.75 75.0% -0.252 -0.4519 -0.236
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.127
3 Other 10 70.0 32.4 80.0% 0.167 -0.1667 -0.079
3 Round (Default) 329 72.34 32.72 55.93% -0.357 -0.6228 -0.284
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.052
3 Thematic 62 58.06 33.16 45.16% -0.452 -0.8987 0.228
4 Other 5 40.0 41.8 100.0% 0.572
4 Thematic 37 51.35 32.62 56.76% -0.158 0.0458 -0.526
4 Trapezoid (Default) 136 60.74 34.24 59.56% 0.293 0.6336 -0.513
5 Other 7 42.86 26.14 28.57% -0.306 -1.0275 0.054
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.255
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 21 52.38 21.57 14.29% -0.009 0.0161 -0.104
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 20.0 22.2 40.0% -0.01 0.0877 -0.207
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.072

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 524 31.3 45.99% 0.354 0.4923 -0.264
Aid From Lesser Spirits 395 34.89 55.7% 1.061 1.0017 0.513
All Things Weaken 236 28.37 43.64% 0.077 0.4314 -0.363
Attenuated Essence 15 22.87 46.67% 0.801 0.9122 0.984
Back Against the Wall 391 32.38 50.38% -0.19 -0.1138 -0.082
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 24.0 47.06% -0.013 0.1979 -0.014
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 35.21 78.57% 1.474 1.5946 -0.261
Disintegrating Ecosystem 499 27.77 44.69% -0.722 -0.3536 -0.253
Downward Spiral 597 29.88 51.76% 0.169 0.3656 -0.011
Erosion of Will 505 29.11 42.18% 0.359 0.6258 -0.224
Intensifying Exploitation 26 30.42 50.0% 1.062 1.3322 0.002
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 74 36.53 75.68% -0.183
Memory Fades to Dust 605 28.76 45.12% 0.538 0.8491 -0.043
Power Corrodes the Spirit 272 29.94 47.06% 0.456 0.7507 -0.262
Promising Farmlands 431 29.86 48.49% 1.069 1.4052 -0.277
Shattered Fragments of Power 20 29.15 50.0% -0.062 0.0471 0.319
Slow Dissolution of Will 21 26.33 52.38% -0.46 -0.0603 -0.519
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 52 36.85 75.0% 0.591 -0.0217 0.599
The Border of Life and Death 9 37.44 77.78% 0.448 0.1556
Thriving Communities 259 28.79 48.26% -0.056 0.2765 -0.443
Thriving Crops 6 32.5 66.67% 0.019 -0.0674
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.255
Unnatural Proliferation 253 29.89 46.64% 1.041 1.1886 -0.211
Untended Land Crumbles 240 29.51 44.58% -0.525 -0.2179 -0.041

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1274 65.77% 28.96 54.16% -0.504 0.4009 -0.132
B 1336 68.07% 30.28 56.06% 0.067 0.8951 -0.331
C 1343 65.94% 31.12 62.25% 0.003 0.6829 0.088
D 1175 68.41% 29.26 55.06% -0.216 0.6371 -0.053
E 698 61.41% 31.25 61.75% 0.15 0.8513 0.051
F 1067 64.17% 30.94 58.86% 0.003 0.7845 0.205
G 975 74.13% 30.23 52.92% 0.486 1.2577 0.163
H 1015 64.19% 32.17 59.01% -0.402 0.3661 -0.036
East 1065 63.76% 37.33 51.08% -0.402 0.4598 0.069
Northeast 562 62.81% 38.05 52.67% -0.197 0.5494 0.155
Northwest 414 72.71% 36.25 48.31% -0.55 0.2833 -0.27
Southeast 200 56.0% 30.71 44.5% -0.059 0.7171 0.171
Southwest 345 73.04% 25.68 21.16% 0.565 1.8844 -2.562
West 1069 72.87% 32.42 36.86% -0.691 0.3152 -0.741

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26% 0.756 1.5869
Not Using Events or Tokens 97 71.28% 28.55 55.67% -0.413 0.0281 -0.685
Skip Initial Invader Actions 241 21.83% 55.0 93.36% 0.912 0.3499 1.079
Start of Game Growth 287 27.57% 52.28 89.55% 0.754 0.2156 1.412
Unlimited Undo 373 52.5% 30.96 54.42% -0.119 -0.0783 -0.123
Using Tokens but Not Events 704 59.8% 28.94 59.66% -0.204 -0.2273 -1.167

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2324 16.23 5.08%
II 2658 30.54 54.21%
III 2305 34.77 83.56%
IV 1051 38.37 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.075 Win Model: -0.132
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6292 67.38% 31.08 53.66%
2 1443 68.76% 31.29 57.45%
3 393 71.5% 33.0 55.22%
4 171 58.24% 34.72 61.4%
5 15 60.0% 29.4 13.33%
6 24 20.83% 19.0 29.17%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 117
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1900
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1433
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1044
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 812
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 610
Win: Sacrifice victory 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2093
Lose: Spirit destroyed 222

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)