Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 186 57.53% 29.47 -3.066 54.3% -0.469 -0.086
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 109 66.06% 38.27 0.482 62.39% -0.39 -0.0642
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 53 67.92% 37.04 -8.287 47.17% -0.709 0.0724
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 53 73.58% 30.51 -4.815 30.19% -0.858 0.0841
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 0.0 32.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 180 88.33% 24.76 0.0 1.11%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 25 68.0% 38.2 -4.391 20.0% -0.078 1.981
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 372 65.05% 29.78 0.83 60.75% 0.184 0.4061
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 346 65.61% 31.9 -0.09 59.25% -0.077 0.0296
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 203 64.04% 41.94 2.619 67.98% 0.08 0.2016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 122 76.23% 44.32 12.704 56.56% 0.771 0.9744
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 94 75.53% 46.79 11.849 52.13% 0.247 0.5491
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 69.23% 33.95 -3.738 20.51% -0.018 1.4432
The Kingdom of England 0 1 340 62.65% 28.56 -4.664 54.71% -0.558 -0.229
The Kingdom of England 1 3 177 67.8% 38.03 2.627 61.02% 0.175 0.4508
The Kingdom of England 2 4 175 72.0% 31.52 -6.592 40.0% -1.173 -0.439
The Kingdom of England 3 6 65 83.08% 33.85 -3.556 32.31% -0.983 0.1593
The Kingdom of England 4 7 104 85.58% 31.79 -8.712 20.19% -0.629 0.606
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 65.22% 36.83 -6.158 21.74% -0.209 1.4604
The Kingdom of England 6 11 120 80.83% 29.92 -5.647 6.67% -0.823 1.2342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 333 68.17% 29.62 0.508 48.95% -0.051 0.5015
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 211 78.2% 30.69 2.199 41.23% 0.153 0.8134
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 100 66.67% 34.62 2.487 33.0% -0.165 0.8702
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 105 70.48% 33.25 9.019 21.9% 0.519 1.8888
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 188 70.21% 35.66 3.498 16.49% -0.236 1.2107
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 83 75.9% 36.9 0.0 12.05%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 52 44.23% 18.71 -0.402 36.54% -0.043 0.2031
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 19 31.58% 20.26 7.221 36.84% 0.45 1.0732
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 22 59.09% 20.5 1.026 22.73% 0.06 0.5685
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 58.33% 27.17 -0.44 33.33% -0.257 0.1816
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 12 75.0% 24.67 -2.727 33.33% -0.229 0.5672
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 0.0 -5.999 0.0% -0.131 0.357
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 50.0% 33.91 -3.332 18.18% -0.042 0.9288
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 309 59.87% 29.12 -0.73 58.9% 0.02 0.2085
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 288 64.58% 30.76 -1.46 55.56% -0.221 -0.199
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 217 66.82% 34.5 0.959 55.76% -0.23 -0.0497
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 87 66.67% 37.18 -6.664 50.57% -1.397 -1.0723
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 108 82.41% 35.81 0.618 35.19% 0.12 0.8214
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 66 66.67% 38.29 1.08 37.88% 0.064 0.8822
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90 86.67% 36.19 0.0 28.89%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 147 54.42% 31.86 -1.933 66.67% -0.114 0.0299
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 82 73.17% 32.29 0.0 46.34%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 58 56.9% 26.52 -8.022 34.48% -0.47 -0.2316
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 48.48% 22.76 -5.535 21.21% -1.069 0.0309
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 21 61.9% 29.05 -7.304 23.81% -0.481 0.5002
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 38 47.37% 26.82 -4.649 10.53% -0.696 1.0083

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4767 67.04 29.81 57.14% 0.128 0.2071 -0.569
1 Thematic 1456 69.16 35.45 43.54% 0.115 0.5696 0.093
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.087
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 895 65.39 29.8 57.65% -1.114 -1.1352 -0.683
2 Coastline 100 68.69 26.75 58.0% 0.386 0.2891 1.314
2 Fragment 30 96.67 26.87 30.0% 0.51
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.425
2 Opposite Shores 146 67.13 33.07 68.49% 1.156 0.9948 0.498
2 Thematic 301 72.43 34.85 46.84% 0.348 0.5839 -0.331
2 Top to Top 20 70.0 31.75 75.0% -0.297 -0.4529 -0.231
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.122
3 Other 10 70.0 32.4 80.0% 0.167 -0.1493 -0.074
3 Round (Default) 330 72.12 32.62 55.76% -0.185 -0.4665 -0.234
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.048
3 Thematic 62 58.06 33.16 45.16% -0.528 -0.8606 0.228
4 Other 5 40.0 41.8 100.0% 0.579
4 Thematic 37 51.35 32.62 56.76% -0.521
4 Trapezoid (Default) 140 61.87 34.24 60.71% 0.25 0.5487 -0.42
5 Other 9 33.33 20.33 22.22% -0.421 -1.0261 -0.231
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.223
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 21 52.38 21.57 14.29% -0.018 -0.0266 -0.092
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 20.0 22.2 40.0% -0.178
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.059

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 524 31.3 45.99% 0.463 0.6576 -0.256
Aid From Lesser Spirits 397 34.88 55.67% 0.956 0.9471 0.517
All Things Weaken 236 28.37 43.64% 0.47 0.8231 -0.36
Attenuated Essence 15 22.87 46.67% 0.806 0.9577 0.98
Back Against the Wall 391 32.38 50.38% -0.245 -0.1518 -0.076
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 24.0 47.06% -0.107 0.1107 -0.013
Burn Brightest Before the End 15 35.47 80.0% 1.457 1.6353 -0.261
Disintegrating Ecosystem 499 27.77 44.69% -0.675 -0.2866 -0.246
Downward Spiral 598 29.91 51.84% 0.074 0.2662 -0.004
Erosion of Will 505 29.11 42.18% 0.143 0.4443 -0.219
Intensifying Exploitation 30 30.9 56.67% 1.115 1.4013 0.017
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 74 36.53 75.68% -0.181
Memory Fades to Dust 605 28.76 45.12% 0.042 0.3717 -0.033
Power Corrodes the Spirit 272 29.94 47.06% 0.773 1.0827 -0.252
Promising Farmlands 432 29.88 48.61% 1.171 1.5317 -0.269
Shattered Fragments of Power 22 29.45 54.55% 0.591 0.7345 0.317
Slow Dissolution of Will 21 26.33 52.38% -0.477 -0.0251 -0.518
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 52 36.85 75.0% 0.618 0.0613 0.603
The Border of Life and Death 9 37.44 77.78% 0.521 0.226
Thriving Communities 260 28.79 48.46% 0.279 0.6065 -0.437
Thriving Crops 6 32.5 66.67% -0.013 -0.0562
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.26
Unnatural Proliferation 253 29.89 46.64% 1.249 1.4368 -0.209
Untended Land Crumbles 240 29.51 44.58% -0.455 -0.1257 -0.026

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1279 65.51% 28.88 54.03% -0.446 0.4481 -0.146
B 1346 68.01% 30.25 56.17% 0.265 1.0869 -0.346
C 1349 65.95% 31.08 62.27% 0.015 0.6849 0.073
D 1180 68.2% 29.16 54.92% -0.759 0.0693 -0.05
E 704 61.17% 31.11 61.51% 0.228 0.9207 0.022
F 1073 64.27% 30.91 58.9% -0.107 0.6714 0.203
G 983 73.83% 30.08 52.8% 0.33 1.0942 0.137
H 1021 64.31% 32.17 59.16% -0.295 0.4621 -0.04
East 1066 63.7% 37.3 51.03% -0.489 0.3575 0.067
Northeast 563 62.7% 37.99 52.58% -0.126 0.5495 0.159
Northwest 414 72.71% 36.25 48.31% -0.432 0.382 -0.265
Southeast 200 56.0% 30.71 44.5% 0.094 0.7795 0.175
Southwest 345 73.04% 25.68 21.16% 0.499 1.8758 -2.551
West 1069 72.87% 32.42 36.86% -0.426 0.5318 -0.738

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26% 0.716 1.5552
Not Using Events or Tokens 97 71.28% 28.55 55.67% -0.304 0.1449 -0.682
Skip Initial Invader Actions 241 21.83% 55.0 93.36% 0.96 0.3922 1.076
Start of Game Growth 287 27.57% 52.28 89.55% 0.688 0.1679 1.412
Unlimited Undo 375 52.49% 30.85 54.13% -0.331 -0.293 -0.118
Using Tokens but Not Events 706 59.62% 28.86 59.49% -0.41 -0.4432 -1.16

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2337 16.17 5.05%
II 2660 30.54 54.25%
III 2315 34.77 83.59%
IV 1053 38.39 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.177 Win Model: -0.21
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6308 67.31% 31.05 53.63%
2 1447 68.71% 31.25 57.43%
3 394 71.32% 32.92 55.08%
4 175 59.2% 34.7 62.29%
5 17 52.94% 25.94 11.76%
6 24 20.83% 19.0 29.17%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 117
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1909
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1435
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1046
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 825
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 610
Win: Sacrifice victory 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2094
Lose: Spirit destroyed 222

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-16 05:27:44 (Pacific Time)