Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 106 73.58% 36.42 1.446 65.09% -0.111 0.1726
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 69 71.01% 43.78 3.826 72.46% 0.165 0.5754
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 35 71.43% 44.06 5.596 57.14% -0.557 0.3198
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 20 90.0% 40.5 4.058 40.0% -0.731 0.5145
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 94.12% 40.53 4.954 35.29% -0.925 0.5767
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 -2.399 1.14% -3.391 -1.4375
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16 68.75% 42.75 3.137 25.0% -2.133 -0.09
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 342 72.51% 33.15 -0.019 67.84% 0.057 0.0988
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 280 76.34% 35.0 0.965 65.0% -0.058 -0.0767
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 159 69.81% 47.23 7.06 77.36% 0.442 0.455
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 111 81.98% 44.68 5.857 53.15% -0.424 -0.1366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 92 79.35% 47.59 7.184 51.09% -0.619 -0.2521
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 65 90.77% 48.48 8.218 41.54% -0.556 0.2704
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 38 94.74% 40.55 3.76 18.42% -1.597 -0.3592
The Kingdom of England 0 1 334 69.46% 32.16 -0.387 63.47% -0.164 0.1681
The Kingdom of England 1 3 174 72.41% 40.12 2.902 63.22% -0.218 0.2957
The Kingdom of England 2 4 135 82.22% 37.64 1.901 50.37% -0.673 0.2944
The Kingdom of England 3 6 56 92.86% 36.75 1.694 32.14% -1.277 0.3022
The Kingdom of England 4 7 97 90.72% 35.09 0.924 21.65% -1.904 -0.4053
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 76.19% 39.62 3.328 19.05% -1.877 0.1959
The Kingdom of England 6 11 96 92.71% 36.96 1.483 12.5% -3.208 -0.9597
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 302 77.81% 32.45 -0.24 51.66% -0.58 -0.0665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 188 83.96% 33.23 -0.429 43.09% -0.889 0.0106
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 120 75.63% 36.35 1.648 34.17% -1.563 0.5798
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 100 78.0% 37.32 2.229 25.0% -2.017 0.1797
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 150 68.67% 37.16 2.546 18.0% -2.519 -0.3611
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 75.76% 38.33 2.73 13.13% -2.847 -1.0296
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 81 74.07% 37.78 2.308 11.11% -3.181 -1.0837
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 283 66.78% 31.66 -0.8 63.96% -0.205 -0.1202
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 228 70.61% 35.33 0.956 63.16% -0.138 -0.1048
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 188 72.87% 37.79 1.456 60.11% -0.468 -0.2328
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 78 85.9% 42.38 4.481 52.56% -0.381 -0.0946
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 88.04% 39.79 2.774 38.04% -0.959 -0.1762
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 80.0% 43.0 4.985 40.0% -0.999 0.1679
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 76 92.11% 41.17 4.175 34.21% -1.31 -0.1858
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 73 64.38% 37.79 2.021 82.19% 0.72 0.6188
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 53 84.91% 37.06 1.263 54.72% -0.446 0.3327
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 28 71.43% 40.43 3.194 53.57% -0.555 -0.1354
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 50.6 7.57 60.0% -0.473 0.7811
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 90.91% 42.0 4.404 36.36% -1.046 0.0705
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 8.217 50.0% -0.492 1.5065
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 31.33 0.466 0.0% -1.095 0.7835

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 3849 73.35 31.79 -1.257 60.35% -0.086 0.0869
1 Thematic 1354 74.0 37.49 1.482 44.53% -0.041 0.3213
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 749 74.6 34.67 0.482 66.36% 0.015 0.0669
2 Coastline 68 70.15 32.68 -0.358 72.06% -0.014 -0.0069
2 Fragment 23 100.0 28.57 -2.787 34.78% -0.765 -0.5085
2 Heart 26 100.0 29.0 -2.07 23.08% -0.405 -0.2634
2 Opposite Shores 154 71.52 33.33 0.035 64.94% -0.053 0.0377
2 Thematic 256 80.47 38.07 0.693 51.17% 0.277 0.2356
2 Top to Top 23 82.61 37.78 2.2 69.57% 0.671 0.64
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 2.485 50.0% 0.001 -0.1969
3 Other 8 62.5 33.38 -0.884 75.0% -0.004 0.1705
3 Round (Default) 287 74.22 35.27 0.304 59.93% -0.206 -0.2792
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 -4.076 0.0% -0.249 -0.5257
3 Thematic 60 73.33 39.72 -0.307 55.0% -0.149 -0.5509
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 6.412 100.0% 0.506 0.3925
4 Thematic 60 80.0 38.42 -1.236 45.0% 0.088 -0.9961
4 Trapezoid (Default) 134 63.64 37.34 1.055 68.66% -0.303 -0.3894
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 27.406 100.0% 0.744 0.1409

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 558 31.21 -2.295 46.06% -1.951 0.1222
Aid From Lesser Spirits 385 34.48 -0.457 55.32% -1.492 0.4262
All Things Weaken 153 29.29 -3.194 43.79% -2.112 0.0585
Back Against the Wall 387 32.82 -1.53 49.87% -1.849 0.2426
Disintegrating Ecosystem 521 28.41 -3.831 44.91% -2.129 0.0956
Downward Spiral 608 29.77 -2.754 51.32% -1.805 0.2176
Erosion of Will 516 28.71 -3.551 40.31% -2.266 -0.0573
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 45 37.71 0.557 73.33% -0.764 -0.0772
Memory Fades to Dust 630 29.07 -3.066 46.83% -1.98 0.2384
Power Corrodes the Spirit 182 30.33 -2.381 46.15% -1.833 0.1911
Promising Farmlands 410 29.9 -2.919 45.37% -2.014 0.1998
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 37.32 1.392 76.47% -0.359 0.0508
Thriving Communities 176 30.34 -2.72 50.0% -1.813 0.2813
Tipping Point 279 28.51 -3.815 35.48% -2.332 -0.1056
Unnatural Proliferation 162 29.94 -2.44 41.98% -1.975 0.1114
Untended Land Crumbles 156 30.71 -2.544 44.87% -1.871 0.2344

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1222 73.68% 32.26 -0.693 60.88% 0.186 -0.5747
B 1296 74.61% 32.32 -0.702 59.34% 0.166 -0.6913
C 1383 71.22% 33.37 0.191 68.19% 0.61 -0.4782
D 1217 75.1% 32.79 -0.223 61.54% 0.367 -0.4835
E 341 71.47% 36.38 0.948 69.5% 0.528 -0.4374
F 650 69.8% 34.62 0.239 63.08% 0.314 -0.5997
G 625 79.65% 33.18 -0.316 54.72% 0.271 -0.6343
H 654 69.38% 35.62 0.821 62.39% 0.514 -0.4003
East 515 74.17% 39.75 1.704 51.84% 0.088 -0.5612
Northeast 511 70.06% 41.69 2.552 56.16% 0.323 -0.276
Northwest 423 79.43% 38.14 0.53 48.46% 0.034 -0.6361
Southeast 108 66.67% 39.91 1.082 63.89% 0.112 -0.5938
Southwest 246 83.74% 27.13 -3.148 17.48% -0.823 -1.0962
West 477 79.45% 36.66 -0.029 41.09% -0.293 -0.6913

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 30.76 -4.275 71.43% -1.656 0.4001
Not Using Events or Tokens 99 79.59% 30.53 -0.954 56.57% -0.062 0.1544
Skip Initial Invader Actions 200 23.44% 57.77 7.41 94.0% 1.169 0.482
Start of Game Growth 220 27.14% 56.15 6.757 92.27% 1.007 0.5367
Unlimited Undo 225 68.54% 37.39 0.1 64.89% -0.036 -0.4562
Using Tokens but Not Events 579 68.52% 32.13 -0.777 65.8% -0.009 -0.0618

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1595 22.35 6.27%
II 2377 30.84 52.04%
III 2121 34.35 83.26%
IV 965 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.19 Win Model: -0.042
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5218 73.54% 33.32 56.31%
2 1292 76.23% 34.73 61.92%
3 352 74.15% 36.06 59.38%
4 196 68.56% 37.95 61.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 80
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1326
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 954
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 724
Lose: Invader deck ran out 69
Lose: Adversary condition 570
Win: Sacrifice victory 32
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2090
Lose: Spirit destroyed 261

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)