Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 11 63.64% 20.91 0.049 36.36% 0.066 0.4478
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 0.0% 0.0 -8.249 0.0% -0.153 -0.1975
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 66.67% 36.33 3.097 66.67% 0.289 0.4461
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 33.33% 0.0 -9.473 0.0% -0.432 -0.383
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 100.0% 21.0 -1.71 0.0% -0.355 0.0511
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 228 52.19% 27.38 -2.61 50.88% -0.442 0.018
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 60.0% 34.76 -4.054 56.67% -0.146 0.1765
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 59 67.8% 37.1 23.477 47.46% 1.04 1.5508
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 0.0 26.23%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 0.0 32.26%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 431 59.86% 27.88 -1.873 57.08% -0.129 0.0542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 411 61.31% 30.4 3.715 56.2% 0.668 0.6688
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 241 61.0% 38.65 0.415 62.66% -0.422 -0.4133
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 128 74.22% 43.86 19.843 56.25% 0.663 0.8594
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 106 73.58% 43.73 10.244 48.11% -0.268 -0.0412
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 90.0% 47.9 -5.896 41.67% -0.18 0.2265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 52 57.69% 27.17 0.301 15.38% -0.35 0.8986
The Kingdom of England 0 1 405 58.27% 26.97 -0.508 51.6% 0.008 0.3223
The Kingdom of England 1 3 208 63.46% 35.9 1.879 58.17% 0.106 0.3662
The Kingdom of England 2 4 199 66.33% 29.18 -0.902 37.19% -0.457 0.0293
The Kingdom of England 3 6 76 77.63% 33.53 -16.605 32.89% -0.453 0.6008
The Kingdom of England 4 7 111 83.78% 31.23 -2.328 19.82% -0.437 0.522
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 0.0 20.83%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 132 75.0% 28.33 -8.458 6.82% -0.607 1.239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 387 63.31% 27.9 5.743 46.51% 0.649 0.9681
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 236 74.15% 29.05 -3.223 38.98% -0.621 0.18
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 116 66.09% 31.29 -3.095 29.31% -0.729 0.4033
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 126 64.29% 31.21 0.135 20.63% -0.617 0.5663
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 193 69.43% 35.21 -3.955 16.06% -0.146 1.1687
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 90 71.11% 34.96 30.257 12.22% 0.469 1.8519
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 84 38.1% 16.81 -6.288 33.33% -0.613 -0.3495
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 37 35.14% 18.43 0.051 29.73% -0.425 0.0684
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 38 50.0% 18.13 -4.24 23.68% -0.333 0.0023
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 28 57.14% 28.68 9.452 28.57% -0.012 -0.0518
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 70.83% 35.58 12.559 45.83% 0.089 0.6135
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 16.67% 24.67 17.778 33.33% 0.316 0.813
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 0.0 14.81%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 363 58.13% 27.67 -3.589 55.92% -0.413 -0.164
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 348 59.48% 29.25 0.878 54.02% 0.094 0.1445
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 247 61.94% 32.35 1.703 52.23% -0.185 0.0077
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 105 61.9% 34.96 -5.968 47.62% -0.621 -0.3858
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 114 79.82% 34.65 10.262 34.21% 0.167 0.9309
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 75 65.33% 38.27 0.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 94 85.11% 34.91 -10.906 27.66% -0.242 0.6709
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 183 51.91% 28.64 1.993 60.11% 0.443 0.6569
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 97 67.01% 28.09 -8.678 40.21% -0.601 0.2285
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 88 57.95% 25.18 4.144 32.95% -0.295 -0.0098
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 41 46.34% 19.41 -7.08 17.07% -0.4 0.6495
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 35 65.71% 23.8 -1.095 14.29% -1.137 -0.1667
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 -7.548 33.33% -0.248 1.245
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 52 38.46% 21.58 -1.903 7.69% -0.025 1.5483

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5570 64.15 28.12 54.31% -0.051 0.292 -0.404
1 Thematic 1605 66.17 34.25 42.87% 0.041 0.7577 0.315
2 Archipelago 5 60.0 53.4 60.0% 0.148
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1051 62.33 28.23 54.9% 0.4 0.5268 -0.645
2 Coastline 116 67.83 26.37 59.48% 0.857 0.7833 1.092
2 Fragment 33 93.94 27.52 36.36% 0.576
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.268
2 Opposite Shores 168 68.48 31.67 67.26% -0.152 -0.0046 0.629
2 Thematic 359 65.46 31.92 43.73% -0.967 -0.4339 -0.102
2 Top to Top 24 70.83 33.83 79.17% 0.501 0.4831 -0.206
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.039 -0.8705 -0.423
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.204
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.06
3 Round (Default) 399 67.92 31.36 54.89% 0.103 0.0066 0.004
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0% -0.417 -0.2401 -0.041
3 Thematic 78 50.0 28.35 38.46% -0.477 -0.3385 0.159
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% 0.316 -0.4039 0.479
4 Thematic 46 47.83 29.78 50.0% 0.325 0.4246 -0.933
4 Trapezoid (Default) 161 60.62 33.11 59.01% -0.113 -0.166 -0.11
5 Other 13 23.08 14.08 15.38% -0.287 -0.9405 -0.276
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.2
6 Other 4 0.0 41.0 75.0% 0.214 0.0864 0.31
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 29 41.38 23.76 24.14% 0.159 0.5392 -0.085
6 Two Centers (Default) 17 11.76 17.59 35.29% -0.513 -0.0519 -0.441
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.321

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 576 30.97 46.53% 0.745 0.9689 -0.134
Aid From Lesser Spirits 421 35.03 56.77% 0.915 0.857 0.663
All Things Weaken 266 27.97 44.74% 0.044 0.4038 -0.304
Attenuated Essence 32 22.97 43.75% 0.321 0.341 0.694
Back Against the Wall 420 32.35 50.95% 0.427 0.4722 0.036
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 32 25.03 46.88% -0.284 -0.1006 0.226
Burn Brightest Before the End 27 32.7 66.67% 0.8 0.8041 0.2
Disintegrating Ecosystem 560 27.24 44.82% 0.615 0.9461 -0.116
Downward Spiral 640 29.59 51.56% -0.774 -0.6489 0.112
Erosion of Will 544 29.15 42.83% 0.184 0.4412 -0.147
Intensifying Exploitation 53 28.64 50.94% 0.118 0.3441 0.903
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 35.72 74.07% 0.468 -0.1287 -0.168
Memory Fades to Dust 649 28.46 44.99% 0.331 0.5906 0.036
Power Corrodes the Spirit 299 30.03 47.83% 0.881 1.0882 -0.139
Promising Farmlands 476 29.55 49.16% 1.432 1.6829 -0.166
Shattered Fragments of Power 39 32.95 58.97% 0.039 0.1386 0.959
Slow Dissolution of Will 41 25.22 48.78% 0.237 0.6299 -0.235
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 34.86 74.24% 0.659 -0.0633 0.521
The Border of Life and Death 17 34.82 70.59% 0.307 -0.2941
Thriving Communities 281 28.49 49.11% 1.19 1.4448 -0.347
Thriving Crops 18 26.94 61.11% 0.672
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.388
Unnatural Proliferation 285 29.89 47.72% 0.589 0.8105 -0.338
Untended Land Crumbles 263 29.51 46.01% 0.42 0.6114 0.021

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1511 63.39% 27.53 52.02% 0.09 1.0561 -0.29
B 1574 65.07% 28.49 53.49% -0.163 0.724 -0.448
C 1596 61.8% 29.24 59.21% 0.001 0.7046 -0.241
D 1395 64.84% 27.76 52.9% -0.204 0.7249 -0.174
E 879 59.23% 29.56 59.39% 0.396 1.1807 0.115
F 1275 61.07% 29.24 55.61% -0.282 0.5634 0.107
G 1160 69.11% 28.22 50.26% 0.149 0.9579 -0.091
H 1186 61.17% 30.53 56.83% -0.069 0.7472 -0.19
East 1227 59.49% 35.32 49.06% -0.066 0.7501 -0.147
Northeast 658 58.36% 35.76 50.0% 0.083 0.7713 -0.019
Northwest 488 66.6% 33.65 45.49% -0.268 0.5863 -0.409
Southeast 236 51.69% 29.08 43.22% 0.081 0.8594 -0.045
Southwest 383 67.36% 24.38 21.15% -0.952 0.3007 -2.762
West 1205 68.13% 30.66 35.68% 0.055 0.9586 -0.873

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.636
Skip Initial Invader Actions 263 21.51% 52.86 89.73% 0.802 0.2015 0.994
Start of Game Growth 328 24.92% 47.76 82.01% -0.448 -0.9809 1.099
Unlimited Undo 490 45.91% 27.2 47.96% -0.129 -0.2146 -0.068
Using Tokens but Not Events 827 56.88% 27.48 57.56% 0.326 0.2985 -1.131

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3035 13.46 4.32%
II 2944 30.14 54.28%
III 2589 34.84 84.28%
IV 1165 38.67 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.466 Win Model: 0.333
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7304 64.22% 29.34 51.3%
2 1681 65.91% 29.77 55.56%
3 481 66.32% 31.29 53.22%
4 200 59.3% 33.37 60.0%
5 23 43.48% 21.52 8.7%
6 44 11.36% 21.27 38.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2154
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1590
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1157
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1456
Lose: Invader deck ran out 70
Lose: Adversary condition 640
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2257
Lose: Spirit destroyed 234

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-31 04:00:51 (Pacific Time)