Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Rituals of the Destroying Flame

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Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	651	61.98%	37.48	1.688	71.89%	0.443	0.5473
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	323	82.35%	33.14	-0.361	52.63%	-0.101	0.0972
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	320	71.88%	37.37	0.784	59.69%	0.097	-0.0163
Eyes Watch From the Trees	336	70.27%	39.95	2.528	65.77%	0.706	0.3019
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	316	64.33%	40.5	2.538	71.52%	0.442	0.1362
Fractured Days Split the Sky	38	76.32%	36.76	1.13	52.63%	-0.376	-0.0278
Heart of the Wildfire	535	91.73%	26.81	-3.678	38.5%	-0.729	-0.4102
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	2035	69.69%	32.29	-0.406	64.91%	0.27	-0.0724
Lightning's Swift Strike	457	82.6%	34.0	-0.357	50.77%	-0.279	-0.0534
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	98	74.49%	35.58	0.718	69.39%	0.229	-0.0577

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	107	72.9%	36.63	1.539	65.42%	-0.107	0.1827
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	73	71.23%	42.25	3.218	68.49%	-0.032	0.3815
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	36	72.22%	43.58	5.289	55.56%	-0.635	0.2484
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	20	90.0%	40.5	4.071	40.0%	-0.728	0.5144
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	17	94.12%	40.53	4.964	35.29%	-0.94	0.5569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	176	90.34%	25.32	-2.438	1.14%	-3.462	-1.5234
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	16	68.75%	42.75	3.152	25.0%	-2.139	-0.0957
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	343	72.59%	33.17	0.005	67.93%	0.059	0.1004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	282	76.16%	34.96	0.957	64.89%	-0.071	-0.0889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	160	69.38%	47.33	7.096	77.5%	0.435	0.4481

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	3907	73.34	31.77	-1.269	60.38%	-0.083	0.0038
1	Thematic	1380	74.2	37.5	1.48	44.49%	-0.03	0.2467
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	752	74.7	34.66	0.487	66.22%	0.015	0.0407
2	Coastline	70	69.57	32.9	-0.302	72.86%	0.005	-0.0196
2	Fragment	23	100.0	28.57	-2.76	34.78%	-0.754	-0.5316
2	Heart	26	100.0	29.0	-2.088	23.08%	-0.408	-0.3078
2	Opposite Shores	155	71.05	33.39	0.059	65.16%	-0.05	0.0158
2	Thematic	257	80.16	38.14	0.718	51.36%	0.285	0.2183
2	Top to Top	23	82.61	37.78	2.215	69.57%	0.689	0.6199
3	Coastline	2	100.0	39.0	2.431	50.0%	0.004	-0.146

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	559	31.18	-2.301	45.97%	-1.954	0.1153
Aid From Lesser Spirits	391	34.71	-0.364	55.75%	-1.474	0.4393
All Things Weaken	156	29.25	-3.188	44.23%	-2.109	0.0507
Back Against the Wall	392	32.88	-1.501	50.0%	-1.839	0.2476
Disintegrating Ecosystem	529	28.2	-3.924	44.23%	-2.156	0.0665
Downward Spiral	618	29.75	-2.757	51.29%	-1.808	0.2133
Erosion of Will	519	28.82	-3.506	40.46%	-2.256	-0.0487
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	45	37.71	0.565	73.33%	-0.768	-0.0891
Memory Fades to Dust	635	29.09	-3.065	46.93%	-1.984	0.2309
Power Corrodes the Spirit	186	30.15	-2.465	45.7%	-1.864	0.1575
Promising Farmlands	418	29.96	-2.89	45.45%	-2.01	0.1976
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	34	37.32	1.39	76.47%	-0.367	0.0443
Thriving Communities	178	30.25	-2.724	50.0%	-1.804	0.2843
Tipping Point	279	28.51	-3.808	35.48%	-2.332	-0.1077
Unnatural Proliferation	172	29.63	-2.575	41.28%	-2.01	0.0704
Untended Land Crumbles	159	30.73	-2.553	44.65%	-1.897	0.2056

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	1231	73.71%	32.24	-0.691	60.84%	0.175	-0.513
B	1310	74.5%	32.34	-0.687	59.39%	0.159	-0.6245
C	1399	71.05%	33.35	0.179	68.12%	0.592	-0.421
D	1230	75.12%	32.7	-0.263	61.3%	0.34	-0.4375
E	347	71.68%	36.27	0.929	69.45%	0.524	-0.3701
East	519	73.99%	39.86	1.767	52.02%	0.084	-0.4926
F	655	69.88%	34.65	0.255	63.21%	0.307	-0.5337
G	632	79.56%	33.17	-0.3	54.59%	0.256	-0.5759
H	658	69.11%	35.66	0.849	62.61%	0.51	-0.3288
Northeast	522	70.31%	41.68	2.514	55.94%	0.29	-0.2351
Northwest	426	79.58%	38.05	0.486	48.36%	0.019	-0.5761
Southeast	110	67.27%	39.45	0.906	62.73%	0.064	-0.565
Southwest	248	83.47%	27.23	-3.073	18.15%	-0.76	-0.9586
West	483	79.5%	36.7	0.005	40.99%	-0.301	-0.6278

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	21	0.0%	30.76	-4.275	71.43%	-1.677	0.3761
Not Using Events or Tokens	101	80.0%	30.41	-1.006	56.44%	-0.07	0.1448
Skip Initial Invader Actions	202	23.71%	57.64	7.423	94.06%	1.18	0.4933
Start of Game Growth	223	27.7%	55.96	6.737	92.38%	1.015	0.5457
Unlimited Undo	229	69.12%	37.32	0.104	65.07%	-0.016	-0.4392
Using Tokens but Not Events	587	68.43%	32.1	-0.768	66.1%	0.007	-0.0443

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	1610	22.37	6.27%
II	2419	30.88	52.09%
III	2146	34.39	83.13%
IV	975	37.55	100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.193 Win Model: -0.017

Num.	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
1	5304	73.59%	33.31	56.3%
2	1297	76.09%	34.75	61.99%
3	352	74.15%	36.06	59.38%
4	197	68.21%	37.93	61.42%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	574
Lose: Blight pool ran out	2124
Lose: Invader deck ran out	69
Lose: Spirit destroyed	263
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	81
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	977
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	1344
Win: Sacrifice victory	32
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	734

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)