Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 193 56.48% 28.88 -3.541 53.37% -0.219 0.1117
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 110 65.45% 37.92 -10.225 61.82% -0.277 0.0011
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 54 68.52% 36.76 1.153 46.3% -0.197 0.6658
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 55 70.91% 29.4 -7.997 29.09% -0.442 0.489
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 0.0 32.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 181 88.4% 24.96 15.747 1.66% 0.099 1.6449
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 2.381 18.52% -0.479 1.5186
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 378 64.29% 29.67 4.454 60.58% 0.689 0.9262
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 352 65.34% 31.58 1.903 58.52% 0.157 0.2526
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 217 61.75% 39.92 -2.654 64.52% -0.91 -0.8169
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 125 75.2% 43.86 6.483 56.0% 0.153 0.3454
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 94 75.53% 46.79 0.0 52.13%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 69.23% 33.95 0.0 20.51%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 350 62.86% 28.26 -2.796 54.0% -0.239 0.2185
The Kingdom of England 1 3 184 66.85% 37.67 1.224 60.87% 0.286 0.5751
The Kingdom of England 2 4 178 70.79% 31.28 -4.153 39.89% -0.383 0.2345
The Kingdom of England 3 6 66 81.82% 33.33 -10.296 31.82% -0.429 0.6807
The Kingdom of England 4 7 105 85.71% 31.76 3.868 20.0% -0.203 0.9601
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 65.22% 36.83 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 122 79.51% 29.43 -6.977 6.56% -0.598 1.381
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 344 67.15% 29.0 -3.026 47.97% -0.489 -0.0165
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 214 77.57% 30.58 1.038 41.12% -0.101 0.5708
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 100 66.67% 34.62 13.562 33.0% 0.141 1.0899
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 108 70.37% 32.81 -0.276 21.3% -0.477 0.8041
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 191 70.16% 35.58 2.873 16.23% -0.908 0.3541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 85 74.12% 36.04 -6.268 11.76% -0.259 1.1987
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 57 42.11% 18.75 -0.789 36.84% 0.01 0.2112
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 21 33.33% 19.14 -2.875 33.33% -0.223 0.2358
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 23 60.87% 22.13 15.841 26.09% 0.342 0.8298
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 58.33% 27.17 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 13 76.92% 24.38 1.207 30.77% -0.208 0.3921
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 24 50.0% 33.33 1.841 16.67% -0.099 0.9992
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 320 60.31% 28.84 1.371 58.44% 0.71 1.0035
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 298 64.09% 30.9 5.352 56.38% 1.099 1.1402
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 219 66.21% 34.18 -0.741 55.25% -0.048 0.0866
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 90 65.56% 37.26 10.549 51.11% 0.447 0.8038
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 109 81.65% 35.48 -0.748 34.86% -0.115 0.4963
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 69 68.12% 39.32 6.455 40.58% 0.16 1.2784
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90 86.67% 36.19 0.0 28.89%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 153 53.59% 30.9 -5.657 64.71% -0.588 -0.5089
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 85 71.76% 31.15 -7.837 44.71% -0.512 0.3857
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 62 56.45% 25.85 -1.965 33.87% -0.376 0.1703
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 35 48.57% 22.2 -2.06 20.0% -0.256 0.7412
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 24 62.5% 27.21 -4.668 20.83% -1.012 -0.1679
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 41 46.34% 26.17 -2.866 9.76% -0.508 1.2675

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4896 66.66 29.52 56.6% -0.122 0.2103 -0.654
1 Thematic 1479 68.7 35.16 43.2% -0.248 0.2213 0.064
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.091
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 917 64.91 29.5 57.03% -0.493 -0.2464 -0.653
2 Coastline 101 69.0 26.85 58.42% 0.038 0.0507 1.253
2 Fragment 31 93.55 27.23 32.26% 0.558 0.2768 0.502
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.394
2 Opposite Shores 151 66.89 32.63 67.55% -0.188 -0.1265 0.489
2 Thematic 305 71.8 34.39 46.23% -0.345 -0.1054 -0.306
2 Top to Top 21 66.67 31.71 76.19% 0.546 0.5349 -0.227
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.08
3 Other 10 70.0 32.4 80.0% 0.131 -0.4386 -0.072
3 Round (Default) 342 71.35 32.69 56.43% 0.714 0.5533 0.006
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.043
3 Thematic 64 57.81 32.83 45.31% -0.012 -0.4927 0.234
4 Other 8 62.5 32.75 62.5% -0.488 -0.7666 0.231
4 Thematic 37 51.35 32.62 56.76% -0.451
4 Trapezoid (Default) 142 61.7 34.51 61.27% 0.689 0.9049 -0.18
5 Other 11 27.27 16.64 18.18% -0.694 -1.1512 -0.279
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.231
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 23 52.17 22.04 13.04% -0.099 -0.0581 -0.18
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 20.0 22.2 40.0% -0.158
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.068

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 538 31.3 46.1% 0.603 0.7356 -0.189
Aid From Lesser Spirits 399 34.98 55.64% 0.749 0.6517 0.549
All Things Weaken 236 28.37 43.64% 0.762 1.0791 -0.342
Attenuated Essence 20 23.1 40.0% -0.09 -0.0795 0.704
Back Against the Wall 396 32.36 50.51% 0.476 0.5275 -0.049
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 22.67 44.44% -0.671 -0.4782 -0.019
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 34.29 76.47% 0.61 0.7903 -0.239
Disintegrating Ecosystem 506 27.61 44.27% -0.967 -0.5572 -0.211
Downward Spiral 605 29.9 51.9% 0.683 0.7511 0.081
Erosion of Will 512 29.35 42.77% 1.44 1.7312 -0.159
Intensifying Exploitation 35 30.94 57.14% 0.481 0.7734 0.337
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 75 36.53 76.0% 0.132 -0.3389 -0.175
Memory Fades to Dust 615 28.66 45.04% 0.592 0.7988 -0.0
Power Corrodes the Spirit 276 29.82 46.74% -0.095 0.0828 -0.227
Promising Farmlands 437 29.72 48.28% 0.387 0.6885 -0.233
Shattered Fragments of Power 27 27.63 48.15% 0.355 0.5375 0.161
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 25.65 53.85% 0.345 0.717 -0.547
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 53 37.0 75.47% 0.325 -0.4124 0.627
The Border of Life and Death 12 35.5 75.0% 0.233 -0.3394
Thriving Communities 265 28.37 47.55% -0.61 -0.3072 -0.424
Thriving Crops 8 33.75 75.0% 0.736 0.7519
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.302
Unnatural Proliferation 257 29.87 46.3% 0.348 0.4917 -0.292
Untended Land Crumbles 244 29.36 44.67% -0.289 0.0545 0.026

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1313 65.42% 28.73 53.77% -0.176 0.6859 -0.105
B 1386 67.42% 29.81 55.34% -0.172 0.6484 -0.37
C 1390 65.51% 30.81 61.65% 0.532 1.2118 0.034
D 1211 67.52% 28.94 54.58% -0.442 0.3865 -0.024
E 727 61.02% 30.93 61.07% -0.007 0.6859 0.068
F 1106 63.71% 30.67 58.41% 0.201 1.0152 0.156
G 1013 73.02% 29.71 52.42% 0.023 0.8657 0.096
H 1044 64.23% 32.1 59.1% 0.712 1.4898 0.024
East 1086 62.98% 36.91 50.55% 0.006 0.8728 0.025
Northeast 574 62.02% 37.59 52.09% -0.273 0.5761 0.128
Northwest 423 72.34% 35.98 47.75% -0.586 0.282 -0.232
Southeast 205 55.61% 30.23 43.41% -0.685 0.2115 0.122
Southwest 350 72.86% 25.49 20.86% 0.451 1.7158 -2.613
West 1086 72.65% 32.15 36.46% -0.484 0.5664 -0.757

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 97 71.28% 28.55 55.67% -0.657
Skip Initial Invader Actions 242 21.74% 54.78 92.98% -0.131 -0.7323 1.03
Start of Game Growth 288 27.47% 52.1 89.24% -0.131 -0.7391 1.374
Unlimited Undo 384 53.1% 30.98 54.17% -0.396 -0.385 -0.009
Using Tokens but Not Events 726 59.49% 28.47 58.82% -0.323 -0.3173 -1.198

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2440 15.58 4.92%
II 2709 30.46 54.08%
III 2360 34.79 83.69%
IV 1065 38.44 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.307 Win Model: 0.108
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6461 66.9% 30.75 53.17%
2 1482 68.09% 30.91 56.88%
3 407 71.01% 33.17 56.02%
4 179 59.55% 34.44 61.45%
5 21 47.62% 23.57 9.52%
6 24 20.83% 19.0 29.17%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 119
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1949
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1457
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1058
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 913
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 617
Win: Sacrifice victory 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2130
Lose: Spirit destroyed 224

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-09 06:24:56 (Pacific Time)