Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 24 50.0% 17.75 2.545 33.33% 0.201 0.3814
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 11 18.18% 15.82 -5.319 27.27% -0.205 -0.0755
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 14 42.86% 16.07 -4.369 21.43% -0.449 -0.0049
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 5 40.0% 12.6 0.0 20.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 5 60.0% 19.0 21.333 20.0% 0.149 0.8287
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 12 41.67% 18.17 -1.658 8.33% -0.155 1.7959
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 244 50.82% 27.14 -4.536 50.41% -0.348 0.1177
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 137 56.93% 32.4 3.794 53.28% 0.414 0.3404
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 74 64.86% 34.08 0.0 43.24%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 70 61.43% 26.39 0.0 27.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 33 90.91% 37.85 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 183 87.43% 24.69 0.0 1.64%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 32 65.63% 38.22 1.558 18.75% -0.268 1.4466
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 460 57.61% 27.05 -1.645 55.43% -0.254 0.0968
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 448 60.27% 29.49 7.223 54.91% 0.4 0.4211
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 265 61.51% 37.7 0.0 60.75%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 137 73.72% 42.91 0.0 55.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 122 69.67% 41.24 -11.424 45.08% -0.42 -0.2038
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 90.0% 47.9 0.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 57 56.14% 25.26 -1.658 14.04% -0.155 1.1907
The Kingdom of England 0 1 427 56.44% 25.94 -1.5 49.65% -0.135 0.0681
The Kingdom of England 1 3 226 61.95% 35.05 -8.998 56.64% -0.339 -0.0167
The Kingdom of England 2 4 216 64.81% 28.0 -0.428 35.65% 0.015 0.5809
The Kingdom of England 3 6 87 68.97% 31.25 -7.311 31.03% -0.455 0.8203
The Kingdom of England 4 7 124 81.45% 29.66 16.015 18.55% 0.288 1.2424
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 0.0 20.83%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 139 71.94% 28.32 0.0 7.19%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 413 62.71% 27.04 -0.63 45.04% -0.342 0.124
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 247 72.87% 28.14 -11.277 37.65% -0.469 0.4111
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 127 61.9% 29.64 -8.547 27.56% -0.277 0.7183
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 132 62.12% 30.33 -7.702 20.45% -0.183 1.1368
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 193 69.43% 35.21 0.0 16.06%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 111 75.68% 37.05 0.0 13.51%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 92 70.65% 35.14 0.0 11.96%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 100 38.0% 17.09 0.084 34.0% 0.234 0.2605
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 48 39.58% 20.71 6.686 31.25% 0.158 0.6796
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 51 45.1% 16.63 -6.908 21.57% -0.282 0.4231
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 34 52.94% 23.62 -9.148 23.53% -0.541 -0.3563
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 35 62.86% 27.83 0.0 34.29%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 16.67% 24.67 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 58 32.76% 16.52 1.283 6.9% -0.25 0.9489
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 398 56.53% 26.71 4.264 54.27% 0.406 0.5841
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 369 57.99% 28.47 -9.364 52.57% -0.93 -0.8001
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 261 60.92% 31.43 -4.246 50.57% -0.759 -0.5532
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 115 60.0% 33.71 0.0 46.09%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 124 76.61% 33.37 -7.933 33.87% -0.412 0.1642
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 83 65.06% 37.31 0.0 39.76%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 106 79.25% 33.76 -7.293 28.3% -0.176 0.6196
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 199 50.75% 27.89 2.203 58.29% 0.247 0.491
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 108 63.89% 26.77 -6.149 38.89% -0.248 0.3215
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 102 57.84% 25.36 2.654 33.33% -0.021 0.3675
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 43.75% 18.33 0.0 16.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 42 61.9% 27.05 6.27 21.43% -0.06 0.6842
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 87 29.89% 17.7 -4.388 6.9% -0.082 1.5822

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6043 62.7 27.45 53.17% 0.595 0.7985 0.391
1 Thematic 1701 65.02 33.56 42.33% -0.347 0.2625 0.121
2 Archipelago 32 25.0 12.78 12.5% -0.727
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1131 60.92 27.35 52.96% -0.313 -0.2324 -0.471
2 Coastline 125 67.74 26.5 60.0% 0.128 0.0327
2 Fragment 35 94.29 27.26 37.14%
2 Heart 18 88.89 32.28 55.56% 0.158 -0.303
2 Opposite Shores 187 70.65 31.41 65.24% -0.047 0.085 -0.097
2 Thematic 391 60.87 30.31 41.43% -0.055 0.3038 0.221
2 Top to Top 26 65.38 33.96 80.77%
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 27.5 0.0% -0.028
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0%
3 Other 12 58.33 33.42 75.0%
3 Round (Default) 457 65.86 30.04 52.74% -0.069 -0.0637 0.643
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0%
3 Thematic 83 49.4 27.99 38.55% -0.127 -0.5583 -0.204
4 Other 11 63.64 26.55 54.55% 0.54
4 Thematic 48 47.92 29.98 50.0%
4 Trapezoid (Default) 173 59.88 32.16 57.8%
5 Other 15 26.67 16.67 20.0% -0.079
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0%
6 Other 5 20.0 39.0 80.0% 0.074 0.035
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 37 40.54 23.84 27.03% -0.009 0.2395 -0.141
6 Two Centers (Default) 25 12.0 15.32 32.0% -0.184
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 598 30.89 46.99% 0.354 0.5029 -0.132
Aid From Lesser Spirits 436 35.33 57.34% 0.295 0.1818 0.182
All Things Weaken 283 27.99 44.17% 0.288 0.6626 0.518
Attenuated Essence 46 26.28 52.17% -0.317 -0.1914 0.665
Back Against the Wall 441 32.2 50.79% 0.095 0.1357 -0.191
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 27.4 52.08% 0.194 0.3998 0.75
Burn Brightest Before the End 38 32.03 60.53% 0.477
Disintegrating Ecosystem 585 26.76 44.1% -0.912 -0.4145 0.089
Downward Spiral 673 29.27 51.11% 0.071 0.3206 0.369
Erosion of Will 573 28.79 42.93% 0.638 0.8955 -0.122
Intensifying Exploitation 67 29.45 52.24% 0.833
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 89 36.54 76.4% 0.498 0.1121
Memory Fades to Dust 675 28.05 44.3% -0.906 -0.7006 0.197
Power Corrodes the Spirit 319 29.58 47.34% -0.083 0.1154 -0.191
Promising Farmlands 498 29.59 49.2% 0.424 0.7805 0.2
Shattered Fragments of Power 42 32.55 59.52% 0.286 0.5036
Slow Dissolution of Will 58 26.47 46.55% -0.254 0.1757 0.386
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 70 35.17 75.71% 0.074 -0.5504
The Border of Life and Death 21 31.81 66.67% 0.196 -0.1239 -0.186
Thriving Communities 298 28.57 48.99% -0.469 -0.1491 0.724
Thriving Crops 22 27.05 59.09% -0.056
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33%
Unnatural Proliferation 304 30.09 48.68% 0.791 0.8801 -0.276
Untended Land Crumbles 277 29.19 45.85% 0.223 0.4479 -0.272

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1668 62.21% 26.88 50.78% 0.515 1.3144 0.233
B 1728 63.6% 27.55 51.68% -0.23 0.5 -0.105
C 1755 60.58% 28.29 57.15% 0.12 0.7241 0.472
D 1526 63.59% 26.88 51.38% -0.214 0.5428 0.664
E 987 57.51% 28.64 57.35% -0.396 0.1884 -0.222
F 1377 59.45% 28.58 54.47% 0.098 0.8007 0.357
G 1278 66.56% 27.24 48.67% 0.464 1.2209 -0.702
H 1306 59.37% 29.3 54.75% 0.327 0.958 -0.391
East 1317 57.78% 34.35 47.76% -0.438 0.3453 -0.71
Northeast 704 57.1% 35.18 49.01% -0.19 0.5712 0.641
Northwest 515 64.47% 33.17 44.85% -0.245 0.5975 0.237
Southeast 273 49.82% 27.49 41.39% 0.339 0.9788 -0.409
Southwest 421 64.61% 23.77 22.33% -0.253 0.7924 -0.665
West 1287 66.05% 29.94 35.35% -0.104 0.6714 0.011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 105 67.65% 27.39 53.33% -0.256 0.1212
Skip Initial Invader Actions 289 22.38% 50.38 85.81% 0.019 -0.2719 -0.038
Start of Game Growth 367 25.0% 44.67 77.11% 0.019 -0.5373 -0.038
Unlimited Undo 579 44.17% 25.76 45.25% -0.798 -0.7349 -0.653
Using Tokens but Not Events 885 55.84% 27.21 57.18% 0.379 0.252 -0.568

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3480 12.44 3.94%
II 3115 29.94 54.51%
III 2754 34.9 84.28%
IV 1225 38.84 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.423 Win Model: 0.359
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7924 62.56% 28.54 50.14%
2 1812 64.78% 28.92 53.86%
3 537 64.62% 30.36 52.14%
4 215 58.88% 32.44 58.6%
5 26 46.15% 21.62 11.54%
6 60 15.0% 20.73 38.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 136
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2292
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1688
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1216
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1867
Lose: Invader deck ran out 71
Lose: Adversary condition 659
Win: Sacrifice victory 49
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2355
Lose: Spirit destroyed 241

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)