Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 128 73.44% 36.65 1.269 66.41% -0.359 0.149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 86 69.77% 44.37 6.762 72.09% -0.212 0.1916
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 75.61% 44.22 9.56 56.1% 0.114 1.292
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 32 90.63% 39.31 0.0 37.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 90.0% 41.15 0.0 35.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 0.0 1.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 64.71% 42.71 0.0 23.53%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 303 72.94% 33.3 -8.935 67.66% -0.495 -0.542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 284 72.89% 34.92 1.91 64.44% 0.118 -0.114
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 162 67.9% 46.65 2.715 75.93% -0.338 -0.1484
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 103 79.61% 47.38 7.684 59.22% 0.044 0.4102
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 81 79.01% 48.35 0.0 53.09%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 26 88.46% 49.81 3.972 30.77% -0.273 1.1738
The Kingdom of England 0 1 277 69.31% 31.27 -3.874 59.93% -0.5 0.0576
The Kingdom of England 1 3 150 72.67% 41.18 0.0 66.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 128 80.47% 37.53 -2.026 48.44% -0.422 0.7315
The Kingdom of England 3 6 47 93.62% 37.38 0.0 31.91%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 92 89.13% 34.88 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 75.0% 42.35 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 101 92.08% 34.74 -2.67 7.92% -0.232 2.3315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 278 76.62% 33.75 1.042 55.76% 0.007 0.6802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 174 81.61% 34.27 0.0 45.98%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 81 68.75% 37.56 16.557 34.57% 0.185 2.3003
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 88 77.27% 36.93 15.981 23.86% 0.184 2.3144
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 185 70.81% 36.09 -1.095 16.76% -1.578 0.767
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 103 77.67% 37.83 0.0 12.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 68 80.88% 40.51 0.0 14.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 9 66.67% 41.0 1.593 88.89% 0.275 0.1813
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 56.5 5.328 100.0% 0.044 0.935
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 100.0% 37.5 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 33.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 48.0 3.671 66.67% -0.213 1.0041
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 75.0% 72.0 15.21 50.0% 0.226 1.7833
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 251 66.14% 32.45 -6.481 65.34% -0.45 -0.2791
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 219 72.6% 35.96 4.143 64.38% 0.396 0.6157
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 169 70.41% 38.33 0.0 61.54%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 58 81.03% 45.98 0.0 62.07%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 91 87.91% 40.27 0.0 39.56%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 50 76.0% 46.08 1.544 46.0% -0.663 0.3775
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 91.55% 41.11 0.0 33.8%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 103 65.05% 38.11 2.421 79.61% 0.357 -0.0954
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 66 83.33% 36.26 -5.685 51.52% -0.388 0.4146
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 40 72.5% 37.7 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 60.0% 45.4 10.556 50.0% 0.127 1.3665
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 85.71% 41.86 13.065 35.71% 0.14 1.2827
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 90.0% 67.1 3.972 20.0% -0.273 1.6979

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3701 71.46 32.98 62.09% -0.31 0.3527 -0.692
1 Thematic 1280 73.83 37.75 45.31% -0.316 0.7411 0.049
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 71.33 66.67% -0.003
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 673 73.69 34.74 67.31% 0.467 0.9847 -0.224
2 Coastline 65 73.44 30.95 69.23% 0.233 0.4339 0.888
2 Fragment 24 100.0 27.92 33.33% 0.718
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.495
2 Opposite Shores 129 66.67 33.7 68.22% 0.305
2 Thematic 234 80.77 39.72 53.42% 0.31 1.0919 -0.486
2 Top to Top 15 73.33 36.07 86.67% -0.268
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.527
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% -0.082
3 Round (Default) 269 77.32 35.66 59.48% 0.554 0.8583 -0.115
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.052
3 Thematic 48 75.0 41.85 56.25% 0.489
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 100.0% 0.605
4 Thematic 30 60.0 40.23 70.0% -0.273 -0.1689 -0.309
4 Trapezoid (Default) 105 62.5 38.35 67.62% -0.6 -0.5218 -0.185
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 100.0% 0.423
6 Thematic 3 66.67 44.0 0.0% -0.05 0.1911 -0.014
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 50.0 55.5 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 471 31.65 46.28% 0.214 2.1851 -0.624
Aid From Lesser Spirits 349 35.63 55.87% -0.006 1.772 0.164
All Things Weaken 195 29.39 44.62% -0.635 1.4138 -0.988
Back Against the Wall 347 32.96 50.43% -0.477 1.4617 -0.569
Disintegrating Ecosystem 442 28.98 45.7% -0.677 1.4514 -0.587
Downward Spiral 512 31.05 52.34% 0.099 2.0601 -0.411
Erosion of Will 447 29.58 41.83% 0.106 2.1873 -0.553
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 38.84 79.37% 0.422 0.9236 -0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 523 29.72 45.7% -0.821 1.32 -0.421
Power Corrodes the Spirit 240 30.34 46.67% -0.498 1.4827 -0.613
Promising Farmlands 373 30.68 48.26% -1.025 0.9972 -0.558
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 44 38.59 79.55% 0.346 0.843 -0.182
Thriving Communities 221 29.81 48.87% -0.036 2.0232 -0.698
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% -0.085
Unnatural Proliferation 215 30.16 45.58% -0.337 1.6201 -0.509
Untended Land Crumbles 195 30.87 46.67% -0.396 1.6374 -0.678

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 984 72.32% 33.15 61.38% -0.483 0.2531 0.296
B 1041 73.4% 33.78 61.77% 0.974 1.6709 0.058
C 1058 70.37% 33.87 67.49% -0.55 -0.0798 0.564
D 895 74.89% 33.29 62.68% -0.484 0.2251 0.258
E 471 68.51% 36.24 71.13% 0.282 0.826 0.5
F 825 68.69% 34.84 65.33% -0.421 0.2405 0.479
G 783 79.28% 33.33 57.09% 0.589 1.2203 0.568
H 808 68.53% 35.72 64.85% 0.446 1.1108 0.478
East 873 70.68% 41.9 57.04% 0.184 0.8458 0.422
Northeast 452 69.47% 42.75 59.07% -0.676 -0.0157 0.567
Northwest 343 76.97% 39.41 52.19% -0.097 0.5135 0.008
Southeast 134 68.66% 38.79 56.72% -0.32 0.2107 0.532
Southwest 276 82.97% 28.39 21.01% 0.043 1.0115 -2.462
West 905 78.9% 35.28 39.12% -0.22 0.5852 -0.426

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 32.9 80.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 78 80.0% 30.56 57.69% -0.459
Skip Initial Invader Actions 212 21.78% 57.73 96.23% 0.299 -0.6815 0.903
Start of Game Growth 252 27.92% 55.17 93.25% -0.236 -0.6927 1.592
Unlimited Undo 250 70.46% 39.61 68.8% 0.232 -0.3195 -0.235
Using Tokens but Not Events 527 65.69% 33.45 68.31% 0.978 1.1331 -0.954

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1413 22.65 7.01%
II 2270 31.08 53.88%
III 2016 34.66 83.23%
IV 914 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.403 Win Model: -0.461
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5014 72.18% 34.29 57.76%
2 1133 74.67% 35.13 64.34%
3 323 77.09% 36.29 59.13%
4 136 61.48% 39.01 69.12%
5 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
6 5 40.0% 48.8 80.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 98
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1656
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1216
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 908
Lose: Invader deck ran out 62
Lose: Adversary condition 574
Win: Sacrifice victory 36
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1862
Lose: Spirit destroyed 201

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)