Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 131 73.28% 36.79 1.404 67.18% 0.307 0.6764
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 86 69.77% 44.37 5.328 72.09% -0.284 0.0592
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 75.61% 44.22 14.714 56.1% 0.301 1.283
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 33 87.88% 38.12 -16.351 36.36% -0.606 0.7145
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 -0.843 32.0% -1.228 0.1472
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 0.0 1.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 18 61.11% 44.78 13.368 27.78% 0.187 2.4773
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 307 72.64% 33.43 2.507 68.08% 0.505 0.3865
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 286 73.08% 34.99 1.423 64.69% 0.228 0.0749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 163 67.48% 46.7 2.256 76.07% -0.299 -0.1896
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 103 79.61% 47.38 5.328 59.22% -0.284 0.1158
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 81 79.01% 48.35 0.0 53.09%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 27 85.19% 47.96 -3.073 29.63% -0.516 0.9504
The Kingdom of England 0 1 282 69.15% 31.26 -1.003 59.93% 0.008 0.3688
The Kingdom of England 1 3 151 72.85% 41.26 3.985 66.23% 0.135 0.6914
The Kingdom of England 2 4 131 80.15% 37.69 0.437 48.85% -0.188 0.8461
The Kingdom of England 3 6 47 93.62% 37.38 0.0 31.91%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 92 89.13% 34.88 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 75.0% 42.35 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 101 92.08% 34.74 0.0 7.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 281 76.16% 33.8 0.91 55.87% -0.285 0.2977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 183 82.51% 33.51 -6.19 44.26% -1.342 -0.2745
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 82 69.14% 37.76 8.45 35.37% 0.113 2.0184
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 88 77.27% 36.93 17.852 23.86% 0.447 2.5794
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 185 70.81% 36.09 -1.541 16.76% -1.39 0.4395
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 103 77.67% 37.83 0.0 12.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 70 81.43% 40.57 -5.749 14.29% -0.73 1.3899
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 12 66.67% 38.67 0.064 83.33% -0.007 -0.0923
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 56.5 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 31.67 -8.18 33.33% -0.511 0.4864
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 33.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 48.0 13.73 66.67% 0.225 1.2148
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 7 85.71% 64.86 5.977 42.86% -0.067 1.5816
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 253 66.01% 32.34 -4.892 65.22% -0.104 -0.0164
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 225 72.89% 35.53 -3.523 63.11% -0.988 -0.951
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 173 71.1% 38.44 4.104 61.85% 0.093 0.3335
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 65 81.54% 46.89 9.025 64.62% 0.416 0.8129
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 91 87.91% 40.27 0.0 39.56%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 51 76.47% 45.78 2.551 45.1% -0.69 0.5936
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 72 90.28% 40.54 -11.192 33.33% -0.238 0.8287
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 107 66.36% 37.99 1.06 79.44% 0.154 -0.1978
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 67 83.58% 36.45 8.313 52.24% 0.219 0.9883
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 40 72.5% 37.7 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11 54.55% 47.27 15.5 54.55% 0.288 1.6041
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 85.71% 41.86 0.0 35.71%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 90.0% 67.1 5.082 20.0% -0.278 1.7004

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3776 71.53 33.01 62.21% 0.144 0.6943 -0.659
1 Thematic 1288 73.68 37.74 45.42% -0.368 0.6296 0.063
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 71.33 66.67% 0.033
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 683 73.64 34.69 67.35% 0.41 0.8202 -0.216
2 Coastline 65 73.44 30.95 69.23% 0.25 0.3856 0.919
2 Fragment 24 100.0 27.92 33.33% 0.717
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.488
2 Opposite Shores 131 66.41 33.52 67.94% -0.128 0.2254 0.311
2 Thematic 235 80.43 39.89 53.62% 0.348 1.2774 -0.462
2 Top to Top 15 73.33 36.07 86.67% -0.272
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.023 -0.4393 -0.342
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% -0.082
3 Round (Default) 271 77.49 35.57 59.41% 0.212 0.4053 -0.152
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.055
3 Thematic 48 75.0 41.85 56.25% 0.437
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 100.0% 0.59
4 Thematic 30 60.0 40.23 70.0% -0.278 0.0044 -0.322
4 Trapezoid (Default) 111 63.64 38.59 65.77% -0.531 -0.3437 -0.42
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 100.0% 0.435
6 Thematic 4 75.0 46.75 25.0% -0.02 0.0255 -0.015
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 50.0 55.5 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 477 31.83 46.54% -0.06 1.6706 -0.599
Aid From Lesser Spirits 354 35.54 55.65% -0.526 1.0499 0.158
All Things Weaken 199 29.22 44.22% -0.854 1.0241 -1.008
Back Against the Wall 353 32.8 50.14% -0.897 0.7399 -0.572
Disintegrating Ecosystem 449 28.85 45.43% -1.169 0.6739 -0.64
Downward Spiral 520 31.21 52.88% 0.618 2.316 -0.434
Erosion of Will 453 29.72 42.38% 0.1 1.9998 -0.568
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 64 38.73 79.69% 0.333 0.8329 -0.045
Memory Fades to Dust 533 29.78 45.97% -0.51 1.3663 -0.43
Power Corrodes the Spirit 248 30.63 47.58% -0.145 1.56 -0.69
Promising Farmlands 378 30.84 48.68% -0.658 1.2172 -0.566
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 45 39.47 80.0% 0.252 0.4625 0.112
Thriving Communities 224 29.79 49.11% -0.089 1.7813 -0.693
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% -0.1
Unnatural Proliferation 215 30.16 45.58% -0.015 1.7393 -0.509
Untended Land Crumbles 201 30.43 45.27% -1.334 0.4802 -0.709

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1004 72.47% 33.19 61.16% -0.472 0.3056 0.261
B 1059 73.29% 33.76 61.85% -0.036 0.6671 0.021
C 1069 70.3% 33.89 67.54% -0.188 0.3394 0.511
D 919 75.11% 33.19 62.24% -0.339 0.3954 0.276
E 487 68.52% 36.38 71.05% 0.538 1.122 0.391
F 844 68.68% 34.81 65.52% -0.153 0.5536 0.443
G 795 79.6% 33.35 56.98% -0.174 0.4678 0.531
H 815 68.56% 35.73 64.91% 0.475 1.1201 0.442
East 877 70.47% 41.97 57.24% -0.299 0.2931 0.399
Northeast 455 69.23% 42.87 59.34% 0.099 0.7762 0.553
Northwest 350 76.57% 39.51 52.57% -0.134 0.3037 -0.011
Southeast 136 68.38% 39.02 57.35% 0.177 0.8407 0.526
Southwest 278 83.09% 28.43 21.22% -0.453 0.7184 -2.511
West 913 78.75% 35.32 39.32% -0.299 0.519 -0.455

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 32.9 80.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 84 76.54% 30.61 59.52% 0.076 0.2471 -0.465
Skip Initial Invader Actions 215 22.44% 57.63 96.28% 0.468 -0.5915 0.885
Start of Game Growth 255 28.4% 55.11 93.33% 0.468 0.0455 1.6
Unlimited Undo 253 70.0% 39.68 69.17% -0.099 -0.5141 -0.236
Using Tokens but Not Events 537 65.77% 33.53 68.72% 0.786 0.9012 -0.972

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1435 22.63 7.04%
II 2306 31.12 54.03%
III 2051 34.7 83.37%
IV 926 37.97 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.181 Win Model: -0.423
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5097 72.18% 34.3 57.92%
2 1147 74.54% 35.1 64.34%
3 327 77.06% 36.2 59.02%
4 139 62.32% 39.37 68.35%
5 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
6 6 50.0% 49.83 83.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 100
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1688
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1239
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 920
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3
Lose: Invader deck ran out 62
Lose: Adversary condition 577
Win: Sacrifice victory 36
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1890
Lose: Spirit destroyed 203

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)