Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 107 72.9% 36.63 1.539 65.42% -0.107 0.1827
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 73 71.23% 42.25 3.218 68.49% -0.032 0.3815
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 36 72.22% 43.58 5.289 55.56% -0.635 0.2484
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 20 90.0% 40.5 4.071 40.0% -0.728 0.5144
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 94.12% 40.53 4.964 35.29% -0.94 0.5569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 -2.438 1.14% -3.462 -1.5234
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16 68.75% 42.75 3.152 25.0% -2.139 -0.0957
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 343 72.59% 33.17 0.005 67.93% 0.059 0.1004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 282 76.16% 34.96 0.957 64.89% -0.071 -0.0889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 160 69.38% 47.33 7.096 77.5% 0.435 0.4481
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 111 81.98% 44.68 5.859 53.15% -0.429 -0.1459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 94 79.79% 47.59 7.141 51.06% -0.627 -0.2673
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 66 90.91% 49.02 8.466 42.42% -0.519 0.3056
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 94.87% 40.21 3.617 17.95% -1.643 -0.4039
The Kingdom of England 0 1 336 69.35% 32.13 -0.388 63.39% -0.173 0.1571
The Kingdom of England 1 3 175 72.57% 39.98 2.831 62.86% -0.242 0.2749
The Kingdom of England 2 4 138 82.61% 37.22 1.693 49.28% -0.725 0.2485
The Kingdom of England 3 6 57 92.98% 36.47 1.583 31.58% -1.302 0.2777
The Kingdom of England 4 7 97 90.72% 35.09 0.92 21.65% -1.92 -0.4247
The Kingdom of England 5 9 22 77.27% 41.41 4.284 22.73% -1.7 0.3706
The Kingdom of England 6 11 101 92.08% 36.76 1.382 11.88% -3.277 -1.0329
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 305 78.03% 32.42 -0.286 51.48% -0.598 -0.0865
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 190 84.13% 33.05 -0.512 42.63% -0.917 -0.0146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 121 75.83% 36.26 1.615 33.88% -1.581 0.5597
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 100 78.0% 37.32 2.218 25.0% -2.029 0.1693
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 150 68.67% 37.16 2.543 18.0% -2.526 -0.365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 75.76% 38.33 2.724 13.13% -2.858 -1.0408
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 81 74.07% 37.78 2.311 11.11% -3.184 -1.0926
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 287 66.55% 31.84 -0.708 64.46% -0.189 -0.1007
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 234 70.51% 35.38 0.99 63.25% -0.144 -0.1089
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 192 72.92% 37.66 1.431 59.9% -0.48 -0.2425
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 79 86.08% 42.67 4.611 53.16% -0.358 -0.0677
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 93 88.17% 39.57 2.653 37.63% -1.005 -0.2236
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 63 80.95% 42.95 4.882 39.68% -1.009 0.1597
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 76 92.11% 41.17 4.178 34.21% -1.316 -0.1931
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 73 64.38% 37.79 2.043 82.19% 0.712 0.623
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 53 84.91% 37.06 1.286 54.72% -0.451 0.328
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 31 74.19% 38.16 2.328 48.39% -0.732 -0.3208
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 50.6 7.612 60.0% -0.484 0.7599
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 90.91% 42.0 4.445 36.36% -1.039 0.0689
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 8.227 50.0% -0.496 1.4876
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 31.33 0.474 0.0% -1.102 0.7699

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 3907 73.34 31.77 -1.269 60.38% -0.083 0.0038
1 Thematic 1380 74.2 37.5 1.48 44.49% -0.03 0.2467
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 752 74.7 34.66 0.487 66.22% 0.015 0.0407
2 Coastline 70 69.57 32.9 -0.302 72.86% 0.005 -0.0196
2 Fragment 23 100.0 28.57 -2.76 34.78% -0.754 -0.5316
2 Heart 26 100.0 29.0 -2.088 23.08% -0.408 -0.3078
2 Opposite Shores 155 71.05 33.39 0.059 65.16% -0.05 0.0158
2 Thematic 257 80.16 38.14 0.718 51.36% 0.285 0.2183
2 Top to Top 23 82.61 37.78 2.215 69.57% 0.689 0.6199
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 2.431 50.0% 0.004 -0.146
3 Other 8 62.5 33.38 -0.907 75.0% -0.009 0.1638
3 Round (Default) 287 74.22 35.27 0.324 59.93% -0.201 -0.24
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 -4.1 0.0% -0.254 -0.5144
3 Thematic 60 73.33 39.72 -0.306 55.0% -0.154 -0.5207
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 6.422 100.0% 0.5 0.4305
4 Thematic 60 80.0 38.42 -1.248 45.0% 0.071 -0.9259
4 Trapezoid (Default) 135 63.16 37.32 1.039 68.15% -0.34 -0.3315
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 27.385 100.0% 0.745 0.2844

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 559 31.18 -2.301 45.97% -1.954 0.1153
Aid From Lesser Spirits 391 34.71 -0.364 55.75% -1.474 0.4393
All Things Weaken 156 29.25 -3.188 44.23% -2.109 0.0507
Back Against the Wall 392 32.88 -1.501 50.0% -1.839 0.2476
Disintegrating Ecosystem 529 28.2 -3.924 44.23% -2.156 0.0665
Downward Spiral 618 29.75 -2.757 51.29% -1.808 0.2133
Erosion of Will 519 28.82 -3.506 40.46% -2.256 -0.0487
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 45 37.71 0.565 73.33% -0.768 -0.0891
Memory Fades to Dust 635 29.09 -3.065 46.93% -1.984 0.2309
Power Corrodes the Spirit 186 30.15 -2.465 45.7% -1.864 0.1575
Promising Farmlands 418 29.96 -2.89 45.45% -2.01 0.1976
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 37.32 1.39 76.47% -0.367 0.0443
Thriving Communities 178 30.25 -2.724 50.0% -1.804 0.2843
Tipping Point 279 28.51 -3.808 35.48% -2.332 -0.1077
Unnatural Proliferation 172 29.63 -2.575 41.28% -2.01 0.0704
Untended Land Crumbles 159 30.73 -2.553 44.65% -1.897 0.2056

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1231 73.71% 32.24 -0.691 60.84% 0.175 -0.513
B 1310 74.5% 32.34 -0.687 59.39% 0.159 -0.6245
C 1399 71.05% 33.35 0.179 68.12% 0.592 -0.421
D 1230 75.12% 32.7 -0.263 61.3% 0.34 -0.4375
E 347 71.68% 36.27 0.929 69.45% 0.524 -0.3701
F 655 69.88% 34.65 0.255 63.21% 0.307 -0.5337
G 632 79.56% 33.17 -0.3 54.59% 0.256 -0.5759
H 658 69.11% 35.66 0.849 62.61% 0.51 -0.3288
East 519 73.99% 39.86 1.767 52.02% 0.084 -0.4926
Northeast 522 70.31% 41.68 2.514 55.94% 0.29 -0.2351
Northwest 426 79.58% 38.05 0.486 48.36% 0.019 -0.5761
Southeast 110 67.27% 39.45 0.906 62.73% 0.064 -0.565
Southwest 248 83.47% 27.23 -3.073 18.15% -0.76 -0.9586
West 483 79.5% 36.7 0.005 40.99% -0.301 -0.6278

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 30.76 -4.275 71.43% -1.677 0.3761
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 80.0% 30.41 -1.006 56.44% -0.07 0.1448
Skip Initial Invader Actions 202 23.71% 57.64 7.423 94.06% 1.18 0.4933
Start of Game Growth 223 27.7% 55.96 6.737 92.38% 1.015 0.5457
Unlimited Undo 229 69.12% 37.32 0.104 65.07% -0.016 -0.4392
Using Tokens but Not Events 587 68.43% 32.1 -0.768 66.1% 0.007 -0.0443

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1610 22.37 6.27%
II 2419 30.88 52.09%
III 2146 34.39 83.13%
IV 975 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.193 Win Model: -0.017
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5304 73.59% 33.31 56.3%
2 1297 76.09% 34.75 61.99%
3 352 74.15% 36.06 59.38%
4 197 68.21% 37.93 61.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 81
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1344
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 977
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 734
Lose: Invader deck ran out 69
Lose: Adversary condition 574
Win: Sacrifice victory 32
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2124
Lose: Spirit destroyed 263

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)