Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 17 58.82% 21.59 -0.662 41.18% 0.268 0.6715
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 10 20.0% 17.4 0.0 30.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 11 45.45% 18.18 -6.944 27.27% -0.73 -0.3362
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 4 50.0% 15.75 4.993 25.0% 0.167 0.3584
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 33.33% 7.0 -11.365 0.0% -0.497 0.2687
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 -1.064 0.0% -1.006 0.895
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 238 50.42% 27.05 8.442 50.0% 1.016 1.3964
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 133 56.39% 32.23 -2.795 52.63% -0.205 0.1914
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 68 64.71% 34.56 2.741 44.12% -0.131 0.6492
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 69 62.32% 26.77 5.786 27.54% 0.258 1.3084
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 33 90.91% 37.85 23.34 33.33% 0.4 1.8832
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 183 87.43% 24.69 0.0 1.64%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 65.52% 34.86 10.372 17.24% 0.166 1.8978
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 448 58.48% 27.44 0.438 56.25% 0.185 0.4442
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 440 61.14% 29.7 -4.227 55.23% -0.651 -0.6799
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 264 61.74% 37.58 4.171 60.61% 0.15 0.1163
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 136 73.53% 43.23 2.189 55.88% 0.059 0.5024
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 114 71.93% 43.13 2.35 47.37% -0.487 -0.2327
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 90.0% 47.9 0.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 55 56.36% 26.18 -13.989 14.55% -0.642 0.6404
The Kingdom of England 0 1 420 56.67% 26.23 -5.734 50.24% -0.375 -0.0786
The Kingdom of England 1 3 218 62.39% 35.43 2.148 57.34% 0.114 0.6034
The Kingdom of England 2 4 213 64.79% 28.11 -1.067 35.68% -0.387 0.1506
The Kingdom of England 3 6 81 74.07% 32.35 5.52 32.1% 0.24 1.4947
The Kingdom of England 4 7 122 81.15% 29.37 -11.787 18.03% -0.68 0.309
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 0.0 20.83%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 135 73.33% 27.7 10.81 6.67% -0.151 1.73
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 398 62.81% 27.54 -1.638 46.23% -0.022 0.4607
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 244 72.95% 28.49 -6.463 38.11% -0.898 -0.1686
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 124 62.6% 29.85 0.001 27.42% -0.54 0.5906
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 130 63.08% 30.8 -8.115 20.77% -0.537 0.8482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 193 69.43% 35.21 0.0 16.06%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 -8.52 13.64% -0.23 0.8661
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 90 71.11% 34.96 6.698 12.22% -0.317 1.0781
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 93 39.78% 17.05 -0.754 33.33% -0.062 -0.0138
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 45 40.0% 19.67 0.148 28.89% -0.592 -0.3455
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 50 46.0% 16.96 -6.763 22.0% -0.758 -0.2602
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 32 56.25% 25.09 -9.993 25.0% -0.319 -0.122
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 32 62.5% 29.72 -6.044 37.5% -1.082 -0.4248
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 16.67% 24.67 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 55 30.91% 16.91 -6.319 7.27% -1.186 -0.0253
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 387 56.85% 26.97 -2.455 54.78% 0.046 0.1707
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 363 58.4% 28.67 4.977 52.89% 0.538 0.6724
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 257 61.09% 31.82 -7.408 51.36% -0.43 -0.152
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 113 61.06% 34.31 -3.183 46.9% -0.337 -0.0265
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 122 77.87% 33.92 0.001 34.43% -0.063 0.7134
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 83 65.06% 37.31 6.157 39.76% 0.06 0.9699
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 102 80.39% 33.68 7.777 27.45% 0.379 1.3338
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 191 50.79% 27.99 -4.093 58.64% -0.257 -0.1865
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 105 64.76% 27.53 -3.239 40.0% -0.175 0.5613
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 99 57.58% 24.94 6.378 32.32% 0.425 0.926
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 43.75% 18.33 -9.812 16.67% -0.709 0.3365
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 37 62.16% 26.3 13.612 18.92% 0.557 1.391
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 83 30.12% 14.94 1.008 4.82% -0.151 1.3106

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5889 63.17 27.6 53.39% 0.734 1.2157 -0.301
1 Thematic 1664 65.5 33.82 42.61% 0.209 1.0572 0.376
2 Archipelago 32 25.0 12.78 12.5% -1.032 -0.3333 -0.958
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1106 61.22 27.6 53.53% -0.026 0.277 -0.566
2 Coastline 121 66.67 26.68 60.33% 0.351 0.4819 1.152
2 Fragment 35 94.29 27.26 37.14% -0.287 -0.3013 0.538
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.175
2 Opposite Shores 180 70.06 31.48 66.11% 0.331 0.593 0.703
2 Thematic 380 62.63 30.61 42.11% -0.893 -0.1071 -0.007
2 Top to Top 25 68.0 33.8 80.0% -0.199
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.107 -1.341 -0.432
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.156
3 Other 12 58.33 33.42 75.0% -0.064
3 Round (Default) 446 66.14 30.09 52.91% 0.061 0.0516 0.266
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0% -0.036
3 Thematic 82 48.78 28.16 39.02% 0.93 1.1988 0.032
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% -0.101 -0.975 0.427
4 Thematic 48 47.92 29.98 50.0% -0.223 0.1094 -0.885
4 Trapezoid (Default) 172 59.65 32.34 58.14% 0.121 0.0379 -0.113
5 Other 15 26.67 16.67 20.0% -0.227
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.171
6 Other 4 0.0 41.0 75.0% 0.299
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 33 39.39 24.88 27.27% 0.132 0.5106 -0.051
6 Two Centers (Default) 25 12.0 15.32 32.0% -0.218 0.2122 -0.447
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.277

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 592 30.99 46.96% 0.696 0.8726 -0.095
Aid From Lesser Spirits 432 35.26 57.18% 0.753 0.6485 0.719
All Things Weaken 280 27.94 44.29% -0.011 0.2177 -0.29
Attenuated Essence 42 26.43 54.76% 0.601 0.6353 1.097
Back Against the Wall 434 32.24 50.92% 0.686 0.6641 0.043
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 39 26.79 51.28% 0.924 1.0286 0.718
Burn Brightest Before the End 37 31.78 59.46% 0.342 0.4818 0.124
Disintegrating Ecosystem 575 26.93 44.7% -0.165 0.1936 -0.013
Downward Spiral 663 29.33 50.98% 0.859 0.9423 0.202
Erosion of Will 563 28.77 42.63% 0.58 0.8346 -0.132
Intensifying Exploitation 63 28.84 52.38% 0.156 0.4129 0.932
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 86 36.08 75.58% 0.827 0.4245 -0.142
Memory Fades to Dust 663 28.35 44.95% -0.337 -0.0582 0.125
Power Corrodes the Spirit 316 29.74 47.47% 0.389 0.6603 -0.091
Promising Farmlands 491 29.66 49.29% 0.824 1.1167 -0.068
Shattered Fragments of Power 40 32.13 57.5% 0.317 0.4518 0.957
Slow Dissolution of Will 53 26.13 45.28% 0.731 1.0928 -0.043
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 69 35.23 75.36% 0.7 0.14 0.551
The Border of Life and Death 18 32.89 66.67% -0.329 -0.6952 -0.129
Thriving Communities 293 28.68 49.49% 1.228 1.5461 -0.052
Thriving Crops 22 27.05 59.09% -0.551 -0.6741 0.486
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.406
Unnatural Proliferation 298 29.87 47.99% 1.285 1.3751 -0.357
Untended Land Crumbles 271 29.19 45.39% 0.19 0.4584 0.043

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1629 62.48% 26.88 50.83% -0.091 1.0584 -0.216
B 1691 63.7% 27.67 51.98% -0.606 0.4626 -0.444
C 1698 60.91% 28.57 57.77% -0.442 0.4772 -0.202
D 1495 63.58% 27.02 51.51% -0.374 0.6893 -0.131
E 954 58.13% 28.98 58.18% 0.311 1.2654 0.083
F 1347 60.03% 28.78 54.79% -0.501 0.5012 0.125
G 1257 66.4% 27.26 48.69% -0.062 0.9065 -0.224
H 1274 59.29% 29.39 54.87% -0.198 0.7608 -0.204
East 1282 58.27% 34.56 48.13% 0.104 1.1074 -0.158
Northeast 684 57.31% 35.31 49.42% 0.753 1.6213 0.053
Northwest 506 65.22% 33.3 45.26% 0.645 1.4866 -0.283
Southeast 259 50.19% 27.98 42.08% -0.089 0.9682 -0.021
Southwest 410 65.37% 24.08 22.44% 0.165 1.5538 -2.793
West 1259 66.88% 30.24 35.74% -0.465 0.7484 -0.783

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 104 68.32% 27.65 53.85% -0.229 0.0924 -0.629
Skip Initial Invader Actions 283 22.14% 50.94 86.57% -0.009 -0.6502 0.751
Start of Game Growth 361 24.86% 45.02 77.56% -0.012 -0.5912 0.999
Unlimited Undo 555 44.28% 26.13 46.13% -0.354 -0.566 -0.174
Using Tokens but Not Events 867 56.55% 27.31 57.21% 0.683 0.6002 -1.166

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3343 12.75 3.98%
II 3065 30.01 54.26%
III 2704 34.87 84.32%
IV 1202 38.76 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.075 Win Model: 0.309
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7725 63.03% 28.71 50.37%
2 1769 65.17% 29.15 54.38%
3 526 64.64% 30.39 52.28%
4 213 58.49% 32.75 59.15%
5 25 44.0% 22.48 12.0%
6 56 12.5% 20.57 37.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 132
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2251
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1653
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1193
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1751
Lose: Invader deck ran out 70
Lose: Adversary condition 652
Win: Sacrifice victory 49
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2324
Lose: Spirit destroyed 239

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)