Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 8 75.0% 20.13 -1.574 25.0% -0.728 -0.5989
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 0.0% 0.0 -8.386 0.0% -0.588 -0.795
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -10.962 0.0% -0.386 -0.4768
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 100.0% 21.0 3.28 0.0% -0.168 0.2373
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 222 53.15% 27.65 -2.614 51.35% -0.283 0.1551
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 60.0% 34.76 -5.833 56.67% -0.51 -0.1651
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 58 68.97% 36.5 23.628 46.55% 0.497 0.9924
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 0.0 26.23%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 0.0 32.26%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 428 60.05% 27.97 -2.651 57.24% -0.399 -0.2179
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 401 62.09% 30.62 0.436 56.61% 0.015 0.0424
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 239 60.67% 38.71 1.277 62.76% -0.434 -0.4055
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 128 74.22% 43.86 21.634 56.25% 0.748 1.008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 106 73.58% 43.73 9.627 48.11% -0.345 -0.0044
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 50 60.0% 28.26 0.504 16.0% -0.318 0.985
The Kingdom of England 0 1 396 59.34% 27.13 -2.168 51.77% -0.406 -0.0934
The Kingdom of England 1 3 204 63.73% 36.25 4.651 58.82% 0.294 0.5917
The Kingdom of England 2 4 198 66.67% 29.33 -3.655 37.37% -0.848 -0.2928
The Kingdom of England 3 6 75 78.67% 33.97 -2.439 33.33% -0.325 0.7773
The Kingdom of England 4 7 110 84.55% 31.52 0.199 20.0% -0.393 0.6068
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 -9.773 20.83% -0.439 1.2977
The Kingdom of England 6 11 129 76.74% 28.98 -8.197 6.98% -0.288 1.623
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 381 63.52% 27.92 0.567 46.46% -0.158 0.2596
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 232 75.0% 29.19 -6.146 39.22% -0.96 -0.1983
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 113 66.07% 31.58 -4.608 29.2% -0.53 0.7045
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 126 64.29% 31.21 0.545 20.63% -0.679 0.6397
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 192 69.79% 35.39 -5.684 16.15% -0.209 1.0958
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 89 70.79% 34.42 -6.836 11.24% -0.572 0.8258
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 81 39.51% 17.43 0.211 34.57% 0.032 0.2958
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 35 34.29% 17.2 -6.479 28.57% -0.712 -0.2804
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 34 55.88% 20.26 13.832 26.47% 0.313 0.5929
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 27 59.26% 27.3 7.948 25.93% -0.094 -0.0572
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 70.83% 35.58 12.905 45.83% 0.186 0.8161
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 14.4 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 0.0 14.81%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 359 58.22% 27.69 -2.919 55.99% -0.481 -0.2133
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 342 60.53% 29.62 2.546 54.68% 0.188 0.2995
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 244 62.3% 32.5 0.459 52.46% -0.431 -0.213
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 104 62.5% 35.3 3.868 48.08% 0.038 0.3453
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 113 79.65% 34.75 3.748 34.51% 0.17 0.9397
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 75 65.33% 38.27 6.667 40.0% 0.148 1.2389
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 93 86.02% 35.29 0.0 27.96%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 177 52.54% 28.85 -2.058 60.45% -0.408 -0.2113
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 97 67.01% 28.09 -6.956 40.21% -0.853 -0.0631
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 83 59.04% 24.94 2.926 32.53% -0.337 -0.1142
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 40 47.5% 19.9 -5.22 17.5% -0.507 0.4832
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 29 62.07% 24.72 -2.649 17.24% -0.448 0.6962
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 -7.462 33.33% -0.261 1.2369
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 51 39.22% 22.0 0.0 7.84%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5470 64.6 28.33 54.66% 0.196 0.5419 -0.433
1 Thematic 1593 66.54 34.38 43.0% 0.419 1.0186 0.287
2 Archipelago 5 60.0 53.4 60.0% 0.133
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1035 62.43 28.32 54.88% 0.295 0.4391 -0.654
2 Coastline 114 67.26 26.36 58.77% 0.546 0.4354 1.095
2 Fragment 33 93.94 27.52 36.36% 0.41 0.2088 0.528
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.304
2 Opposite Shores 167 68.29 31.71 67.07% -0.132 -0.0403 0.601
2 Thematic 346 67.05 32.32 43.93% -0.658 -0.266 -0.119
2 Top to Top 22 68.18 32.36 77.27% -0.208
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.21
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.07
3 Round (Default) 392 67.86 31.17 54.08% -0.434 -0.5082 -0.006
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0% -0.318 -0.5661 -0.042
3 Thematic 73 52.05 29.19 39.73% -0.448 -0.5361 0.202
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% -0.093 -0.8182 0.097
4 Thematic 45 46.67 29.02 48.89% -0.944
4 Trapezoid (Default) 156 60.65 33.28 58.97% 0.098 -0.0817 -0.11
5 Other 13 23.08 14.08 15.38% -0.289 -1.0801 -0.222
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.179
6 Other 4 0.0 41.0 75.0% 0.458 0.215 0.312
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 28 42.86 24.61 25.0% 0.276 0.3152 -0.075
6 Two Centers (Default) 16 12.5 18.69 37.5% -0.523 -0.1716 -0.436
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.289

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 568 31.02 46.3% 0.794 0.9107 -0.124
Aid From Lesser Spirits 417 34.95 56.35% 0.609 0.518 0.651
All Things Weaken 265 28.03 44.91% 0.371 0.6334 -0.313
Attenuated Essence 30 22.87 43.33% -0.063 -0.0948 0.704
Back Against the Wall 420 32.35 50.95% 0.883 0.9146 0.012
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 32 25.03 46.88% -0.122 0.029 0.219
Burn Brightest Before the End 26 30.77 65.38% 0.316 0.2764 -0.421
Disintegrating Ecosystem 554 27.32 44.95% 1.073 1.2883 -0.109
Downward Spiral 637 29.67 51.81% 0.722 0.8233 0.123
Erosion of Will 538 29.2 42.75% 0.314 0.5111 -0.134
Intensifying Exploitation 52 28.1 50.0% -0.634 -0.4546 0.917
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 35.72 74.07% 0.191 -0.4035 -0.175
Memory Fades to Dust 640 28.52 44.84% 0.468 0.6831 0.027
Power Corrodes the Spirit 296 29.98 47.64% 0.885 1.0876 -0.14
Promising Farmlands 472 29.48 48.73% 1.66 1.8794 -0.182
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 32.24 57.89% -0.066 -0.0565 0.994
Slow Dissolution of Will 41 25.22 48.78% 0.235 0.5085 -0.243
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 63 34.67 73.02% 0.529 -0.1707 0.52
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.31 68.75%
Thriving Communities 276 28.45 48.55% 0.851 1.0489 -0.347
Thriving Crops 18 26.94 61.11% 0.686 0.4003 0.669
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.366
Unnatural Proliferation 277 29.93 47.29% 0.439 0.5897 -0.29
Untended Land Crumbles 260 29.5 45.38% -0.319 -0.13 0.016

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1487 63.67% 27.67 52.12% -0.405 0.5656 -0.249
B 1545 65.32% 28.63 53.53% -0.166 0.7161 -0.438
C 1562 62.19% 29.4 59.35% 0.082 0.7763 -0.227
D 1381 64.99% 27.77 52.86% 0.09 1.0056 -0.185
E 862 58.77% 29.53 58.93% 0.043 0.8029 0.128
F 1244 61.63% 29.5 56.03% -0.428 0.4242 0.115
G 1141 69.47% 28.31 50.22% -0.234 0.5681 -0.081
H 1161 61.45% 30.74 57.28% -0.09 0.7188 -0.117
East 1207 60.07% 35.53 49.3% 0.011 0.8751 -0.141
Northeast 646 58.82% 36.0 50.31% 0.283 1.0864 -0.014
Northwest 472 68.01% 34.11 45.97% -0.665 0.1431 -0.368
Southeast 233 52.36% 29.46 43.78% 0.39 1.2695 -0.037
Southwest 378 68.25% 24.7 21.43% -0.889 0.438 -2.747
West 1182 69.04% 30.9 35.79% 0.285 1.3467 -0.846

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.652
Skip Initial Invader Actions 262 21.6% 53.06 90.08% 0.978 0.2607 0.858
Start of Game Growth 319 25.66% 48.96 84.01% -0.037 -0.5282 1.258
Unlimited Undo 476 46.87% 27.77 48.74% 0.301 0.2209 -0.019
Using Tokens but Not Events 804 57.14% 27.69 57.84% 0.437 0.405 -1.137

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2953 13.69 4.4%
II 2910 30.18 54.19%
III 2555 34.82 84.23%
IV 1148 38.64 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.076 Win Model: 0.185
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7188 64.67% 29.55 51.6%
2 1648 66.2% 29.88 55.52%
3 470 66.38% 31.1 52.55%
4 195 59.28% 33.51 60.0%
5 23 43.48% 21.52 8.7%
6 42 11.9% 22.29 40.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 129
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2124
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1569
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1140
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1379
Lose: Invader deck ran out 68
Lose: Adversary condition 636
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2242
Lose: Spirit destroyed 234

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-17 03:38:37 (Pacific Time)