Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 125 73.6% 36.66 0.603 66.4% -0.2 0.3281
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 83 69.88% 43.86 0.0 72.29%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 40 75.0% 43.67 0.0 55.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 32 90.63% 39.31 0.719 37.5% -0.148 1.295
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 90.0% 41.15 0.0 35.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 0.0 1.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 64.71% 42.71 0.0 23.53%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 300 73.0% 33.23 -0.567 67.67% -0.186 0.0762
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 276 73.19% 34.84 0.012 64.13% -0.101 -0.2828
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 157 68.79% 46.66 -0.047 75.8% -0.987 -0.7944
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 98 80.61% 46.86 6.532 58.16% -0.439 0.0501
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 81 79.01% 48.35 0.0 53.09%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 25 88.0% 49.52 17.505 32.0% 0.077 1.6345
The Kingdom of England 0 1 272 69.85% 31.26 -4.319 59.93% -0.725 -0.2877
The Kingdom of England 1 3 150 72.67% 41.18 6.167 66.0% 0.18 0.8642
The Kingdom of England 2 4 123 80.49% 37.33 0.647 47.97% -0.34 0.7254
The Kingdom of England 3 6 47 93.62% 37.38 -1.285 31.91% -0.377 1.2863
The Kingdom of England 4 7 92 89.13% 34.88 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 75.0% 42.35 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 100 92.0% 34.8 -1.046 8.0% -0.502 1.887
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 272 76.47% 33.59 2.955 55.15% 0.472 1.2829
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 174 81.61% 34.27 5.679 45.98% 0.132 1.0024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 80 68.35% 37.09 0.0 33.75%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 87 77.01% 36.59 20.249 22.99% 0.2 2.5076
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 155 68.39% 37.21 0.0 18.06%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 103 77.67% 37.83 0.0 12.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 68 80.88% 40.51 0.0 14.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 57.14% 40.86 3.241 85.71% 0.337 0.1444
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 100.0% 37.5 5.404 50.0% 0.311 1.2468
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 33.33 -3.816 33.33% -0.204 0.5426
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 246 65.85% 32.76 6.293 66.26% 0.382 0.5287
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 216 72.22% 35.74 -4.012 63.89% -0.984 -1.0298
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 169 70.41% 38.33 4.945 61.54% 0.225 0.6736
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 58 81.03% 45.98 12.061 62.07% 0.202 0.4618
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 91 87.91% 40.27 14.204 39.56% 0.572 1.4399
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 47 74.47% 46.43 -1.889 46.81% -0.182 0.7079
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 91.55% 41.11 0.0 33.8%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 97 65.98% 37.93 1.718 79.38% 0.071 -0.044
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 64 82.81% 36.98 12.63 53.13% 0.237 1.0233
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 40 72.5% 37.7 -6.596 50.0% -0.854 -0.3324
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 62.5% 46.38 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 92.31% 39.46 0.0 30.77%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 88.89% 68.22 0.0 22.22%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3587 71.62 32.93 62.09% 0.781 1.2254 -0.671
1 Thematic 1270 73.86 37.72 45.2% -1.093 -0.5167 0.056
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 71.33 66.67% 0.027
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 651 74.03 34.63 66.82% 0.532 0.9045 -0.228
2 Coastline 64 74.6 30.95 68.75% -0.823 -0.7398 0.865
2 Fragment 24 100.0 27.92 33.33% 0.734
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.541
2 Opposite Shores 129 66.67 33.7 68.22% 0.239 0.7149 0.384
2 Thematic 228 80.26 39.25 52.63% 0.549 0.9331 -0.836
2 Top to Top 15 73.33 36.07 86.67% -0.284
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.505
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% -0.083
3 Round (Default) 263 77.95 35.5 58.56% -0.508 -0.2158 -0.065
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.051
3 Thematic 48 75.0 41.85 56.25% 0.513
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 100.0% 0.641
4 Thematic 29 58.62 39.66 72.41% -0.184
4 Trapezoid (Default) 99 61.22 39.04 68.69% 0.268 0.1116 -0.149
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 100.0% 0.412
6 Thematic 2 100.0 55.0 0.0% -0.009
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 50.0 55.5 100.0% 0.06 0.4225

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 464 31.57 45.91% -0.505 1.3237 -0.575
Aid From Lesser Spirits 341 35.62 55.72% -0.277 1.3655 0.209
All Things Weaken 186 29.24 44.62% -0.903 1.0748 -1.002
Back Against the Wall 341 33.01 50.73% -0.573 1.2785 -0.483
Disintegrating Ecosystem 434 28.96 45.62% -0.381 1.5979 -0.572
Downward Spiral 501 30.91 51.7% -0.967 0.9328 -0.391
Erosion of Will 436 29.41 41.74% -0.55 1.5307 -0.564
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 58 38.91 77.59% 0.201 0.7403 0.004
Memory Fades to Dust 515 29.71 45.63% -0.464 1.5154 -0.467
Power Corrodes the Spirit 233 30.23 46.78% -0.172 1.7187 -0.496
Promising Farmlands 364 30.87 48.63% -0.463 1.5453 -0.496
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 41 37.54 78.05% 0.109 0.5542 -0.104
Thriving Communities 219 29.65 48.86% -1.058 0.9139 -0.591
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% -0.058
Unnatural Proliferation 209 30.33 45.93% -0.218 1.6744 -0.408
Untended Land Crumbles 184 30.6 46.2% -0.808 1.2158 -0.625

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 939 72.27% 33.17 62.51% 0.78 1.5541 0.429
B 1017 73.56% 33.72 61.16% -0.229 0.4732 0.144
C 1035 70.68% 33.81 67.44% 0.14 0.7051 0.633
D 867 75.03% 33.24 62.28% -0.254 0.5117 0.336
E 455 69.38% 36.15 70.99% -0.1 0.5058 0.488
F 798 69.01% 34.84 65.04% 0.072 0.7787 0.574
G 766 79.35% 33.35 56.66% 0.707 1.4371 0.635
H 786 68.54% 35.64 64.25% -0.533 0.1415 0.502
East 859 70.43% 41.85 57.16% 0.22 0.8807 0.505
Northeast 442 69.23% 42.72 59.5% 0.097 0.8002 0.615
Northwest 340 77.06% 39.27 52.35% -0.182 0.8771 0.136
Southeast 131 68.7% 38.87 57.25% -0.499 0.245 0.426
Southwest 269 83.64% 27.96 19.7% 0.153 1.1622 -2.848
West 895 78.99% 35.1 38.77% 0.216 1.284 -0.276

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 32.53 78.95%
Not Using Events or Tokens 78 80.0% 30.56 57.69% 0.335 0.5527 -0.462
Skip Initial Invader Actions 207 21.72% 57.98 96.62% 0.367 0.2555 0.765
Start of Game Growth 246 27.66% 55.49 93.9% 0.317 -0.3843 1.576
Unlimited Undo 238 72.12% 39.06 68.07% -0.075 -0.7694 -0.384
Using Tokens but Not Events 510 65.99% 33.32 67.65% 0.221 0.1636 -0.906

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1387 22.6 6.92%
II 2206 31.02 53.72%
III 1966 34.58 83.21%
IV 887 37.82 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.141 Win Model: 0.409
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4888 72.3% 34.28 57.67%
2 1106 74.86% 34.91 63.74%
3 316 77.53% 36.1 58.54%
4 130 60.47% 39.57 70.0%
5 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
6 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 95
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1615
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1178
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 881
Lose: Invader deck ran out 61
Lose: Adversary condition 563
Win: Sacrifice victory 35
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1818
Lose: Spirit destroyed 200

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)