Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 4 75.0% 21.25 -2.667 25.0% -0.617 -0.6903
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 -9.595 0.0% -0.544 -0.9655
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -7.909 0.0% -0.264 -0.4625
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 215 53.95% 28.25 1.593 52.56% 0.155 0.5081
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 60.0% 34.76 -7.222 56.67% -0.662 -0.2257
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 68.42% 35.91 -13.012 45.61% -0.551 -0.0945
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 -2.849 26.23% -0.074 0.7912
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 0.0 32.26%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 419 60.86% 28.26 -1.932 57.76% -0.304 -0.084
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 394 62.94% 30.72 1.827 56.85% 0.076 0.0764
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 234 61.11% 39.21 4.381 63.68% 0.168 0.284
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 126 74.6% 43.51 0.0 55.56%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 104 73.08% 43.68 -2.652 48.08% -0.566 -0.2483
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 49 59.18% 28.02 -3.598 16.33% -0.686 0.5979
The Kingdom of England 0 1 387 59.95% 27.45 -4.217 52.45% -0.771 -0.4384
The Kingdom of England 1 3 199 65.33% 36.59 3.482 59.3% 0.042 0.5245
The Kingdom of England 2 4 194 67.01% 29.49 -8.119 37.63% -0.891 -0.2892
The Kingdom of England 3 6 75 78.67% 33.97 12.148 33.33% 0.325 1.4205
The Kingdom of England 4 7 109 84.4% 31.59 30.625 20.18% 0.758 1.8058
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 -8.16 20.83% -0.359 1.1994
The Kingdom of England 6 11 129 76.74% 28.98 -10.699 6.98% -0.417 1.4841
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 373 63.81% 27.77 -6.118 46.11% -1.139 -0.6318
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 226 75.22% 29.67 -2.423 39.82% -0.236 0.6365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 111 65.45% 31.93 0.0 29.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 123 64.23% 31.52 -2.849 21.14% -0.074 1.2205
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 192 69.79% 35.39 -5.234 16.15% -0.182 1.1697
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 89 70.79% 34.42 -8.062 11.24% -0.598 0.9016
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 78 39.74% 17.56 4.915 34.62% 0.632 0.9156
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 33 33.33% 18.24 -0.112 30.3% -0.254 0.0694
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 33 54.55% 19.24 0.877 24.24% -0.012 0.3299
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 26 57.69% 27.42 7.178 26.92% -0.012 0.2426
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 22 72.73% 34.36 18.224 45.45% 0.356 1.1006
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 14.4 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 -5.399 14.81% -0.249 0.8233
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 357 58.26% 27.84 0.442 56.3% -0.256 -0.011
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 330 60.91% 29.75 -0.343 54.85% -0.06 0.1328
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 236 63.56% 32.82 0.626 52.97% -0.265 0.0292
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 102 62.75% 35.71 16.857 49.02% 0.648 1.0276
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 112 79.46% 34.53 -6.362 33.93% -0.208 0.5235
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 75 65.33% 38.27 0.018 40.0% -0.18 0.9433
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 93 86.02% 35.29 0.0 27.96%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 172 52.33% 28.93 -6.223 60.47% -0.982 -0.721
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 94 68.09% 28.99 -7.386 41.49% -0.701 0.0123
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 76 56.58% 24.32 7.677 31.58% 0.234 0.606
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 39 48.72% 20.41 -6.265 17.95% -0.325 0.494
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 64.29% 25.61 2.816 17.86% -0.18 0.8852
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 60.0% 45.2 0.0 40.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 51 39.22% 22.0 -2.06 7.84% -0.299 1.3363

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5356 64.89 28.52 54.97% 0.001 0.3359 -0.401
1 Thematic 1569 66.92 34.49 43.02% 0.602 1.2212 0.289
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.15
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1019 62.52 28.41 55.05% -0.278 -0.1343 -0.6
2 Coastline 113 66.96 26.27 58.41% 0.142 -0.0584 1.101
2 Fragment 33 93.94 27.52 36.36% 0.54 0.448 0.542
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.292
2 Opposite Shores 164 67.7 31.98 67.68% 0.359 0.4104 0.605
2 Thematic 334 68.26 32.95 45.21% -0.216 0.2891 -0.224
2 Top to Top 22 68.18 32.36 77.27% -0.203
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.22
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.068
3 Round (Default) 384 68.75 31.56 54.69% -0.672 -0.7087 0.004
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.04
3 Thematic 72 52.78 29.6 40.28% -0.353 -0.6618 0.16
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% 0.086 -0.6315 0.108
4 Thematic 45 46.67 29.02 48.89% -0.191 -0.1635 -0.85
4 Trapezoid (Default) 155 61.04 33.06 58.71% 0.453 0.3438 -0.151
5 Other 12 25.0 15.25 16.67% -0.26
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.184
6 Other 3 0.0 43.0 66.67% 0.202 0.0274 0.305
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 27 44.44 23.3 22.22% -0.069
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 15.38 17.08 30.77% -0.609 -0.3433 -0.429
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.288

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 560 31.09 46.25% 0.866 0.9104 -0.095
Aid From Lesser Spirits 414 35.0 56.76% 0.928 0.7925 0.674
All Things Weaken 259 28.03 44.79% -0.19 -0.0566 -0.308
Attenuated Essence 28 23.32 42.86% -0.456 -0.455 0.749
Back Against the Wall 415 32.32 50.84% 0.89 0.8676 0.031
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 31 25.84 48.39% 0.098 0.2633 0.429
Burn Brightest Before the End 23 31.26 65.22% -0.465 -0.4356 -0.415
Disintegrating Ecosystem 542 27.38 44.65% 0.432 0.6383 -0.103
Downward Spiral 633 29.73 51.97% 1.16 1.208 0.141
Erosion of Will 534 29.29 42.88% -0.138 0.0356 -0.118
Intensifying Exploitation 48 28.52 52.08% -0.157 -0.0374 0.875
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 80 35.29 73.75% -0.222 -0.7536 -0.164
Memory Fades to Dust 632 28.55 44.94% 0.783 0.9747 0.059
Power Corrodes the Spirit 294 29.98 47.28% -0.074 0.0122 -0.143
Promising Farmlands 466 29.31 48.28% 0.765 0.9909 -0.221
Shattered Fragments of Power 37 32.59 59.46% 0.224 0.2838 0.974
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 24.95 48.65% 0.169 0.5284 -0.224
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 61 35.23 73.77% 0.988 0.3003 0.519
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.31 68.75% -0.051 -0.4837
Thriving Communities 271 28.31 47.97% 0.581 0.7889 -0.34
Thriving Crops 18 26.94 61.11% 0.278 0.0087 0.665
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.373
Unnatural Proliferation 275 29.99 47.27% 0.296 0.3336 -0.287
Untended Land Crumbles 255 29.63 45.88% 0.383 0.6067 0.08

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1459 63.94% 27.77 52.23% -0.948 -0.0009 -0.232
B 1524 65.57% 28.71 53.67% 0.245 1.1083 -0.461
C 1526 62.87% 29.62 59.7% 0.127 0.8239 -0.234
D 1355 65.58% 27.98 53.21% 0.079 0.938 -0.17
E 836 58.68% 29.74 59.33% 0.123 0.8089 0.074
F 1216 62.14% 29.79 56.41% -0.185 0.6016 0.11
G 1117 69.98% 28.38 50.22% -0.424 0.3414 -0.096
H 1133 62.09% 30.99 57.55% 0.129 0.8699 -0.135
East 1180 60.59% 35.72 49.58% 0.644 1.438 -0.143
Northeast 629 59.3% 36.23 50.72% -0.422 0.4045 0.013
Northwest 464 68.75% 34.45 46.34% -1.064 -0.3207 -0.34
Southeast 228 53.07% 29.32 43.42% 0.387 1.2699 -0.016
Southwest 373 68.9% 24.8 21.45% -0.661 0.6565 -2.722
West 1164 69.67% 31.12 36.0% -0.538 0.3844 -0.871

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.432 0.0477 -0.649
Skip Initial Invader Actions 255 22.22% 53.56 90.59% 0.909 0.1283 0.853
Start of Game Growth 309 26.53% 49.76 85.11% 0.194 -0.2269 1.285
Unlimited Undo 455 47.96% 27.95 48.57% -0.612 -0.6466 -0.07
Using Tokens but Not Events 793 57.44% 27.69 57.76% -0.187 -0.2918 -1.156

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2866 14.03 4.5%
II 2864 30.25 54.33%
III 2514 34.83 84.09%
IV 1134 38.62 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.161 Win Model: 0.219
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7046 64.97% 29.72 51.82%
2 1617 66.54% 30.12 56.03%
3 462 67.1% 31.42 53.03%
4 194 59.59% 33.34 59.79%
5 22 45.45% 22.5 9.09%
6 37 13.51% 20.65 35.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 128
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2087
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1548
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1126
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1298
Lose: Invader deck ran out 67
Lose: Adversary condition 634
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2216
Lose: Spirit destroyed 230

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-01 17:07:50 (Pacific Time)