Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 102 72.55% 36.23 1.297 64.71% -0.158 0.1203
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 62 69.35% 43.69 3.537 70.97% 0.063 0.4567
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 28 67.86% 47.57 6.866 64.29% -0.375 0.5029
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18 88.89% 42.83 4.997 44.44% -0.586 0.6656
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 94.12% 40.53 4.973 35.29% -0.909 0.6125
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 -2.403 1.14% -3.358 -1.3812
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16 68.75% 42.75 3.144 25.0% -2.135 -0.0857
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 333 72.37% 33.26 0.027 68.17% 0.066 0.1064
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 271 76.67% 34.99 0.944 64.94% -0.054 -0.0834
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 155 70.32% 46.95 6.938 76.77% 0.431 0.4354
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 109 82.57% 44.76 5.88 53.21% -0.414 -0.1254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 92 79.35% 47.59 7.187 51.09% -0.613 -0.2461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 65 90.77% 48.48 8.215 41.54% -0.553 0.276
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 37 94.59% 40.76 3.885 18.92% -1.544 -0.3024
The Kingdom of England 0 1 331 69.18% 32.22 -0.39 63.44% -0.178 0.1542
The Kingdom of England 1 3 172 72.67% 39.97 2.817 62.79% -0.237 0.2667
The Kingdom of England 2 4 133 81.95% 37.62 1.896 50.38% -0.676 0.2927
The Kingdom of England 3 6 56 92.86% 36.75 1.687 32.14% -1.28 0.2981
The Kingdom of England 4 7 96 91.67% 35.14 0.997 21.88% -1.83 -0.3317
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 76.19% 39.62 3.328 19.05% -1.886 0.1809
The Kingdom of England 6 11 96 92.71% 36.96 1.475 12.5% -3.209 -0.9538
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 296 78.04% 32.44 -0.247 51.69% -0.57 -0.0548
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 186 83.78% 33.41 -0.359 43.55% -0.871 0.0247
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 117 75.0% 36.05 1.451 33.33% -1.619 0.5181
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 98 77.55% 37.61 2.283 25.51% -2.007 0.178
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 148 68.92% 36.91 2.413 17.57% -2.542 -0.3951
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 75.76% 38.33 2.719 13.13% -2.838 -1.0177
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 81 74.07% 37.78 2.292 11.11% -3.182 -1.0751
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 277 67.51% 31.57 -0.831 63.9% -0.197 -0.1125
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 218 70.18% 35.72 1.118 64.22% -0.082 -0.0615
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 181 73.48% 37.87 1.456 60.22% -0.448 -0.2164
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 77 87.01% 42.13 4.456 51.95% -0.385 -0.0988
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 88.04% 39.79 2.793 38.04% -0.944 -0.167
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 80.0% 43.0 4.994 40.0% -0.99 0.1675
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 73 91.78% 40.75 3.943 32.88% -1.363 -0.2312
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 67 65.67% 38.34 2.172 83.58% 0.822 0.7161
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 48 83.33% 38.4 1.815 58.33% -0.274 0.4691
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 27 70.37% 41.37 3.536 55.56% -0.499 -0.0672
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 50.6 7.571 60.0% -0.465 0.7837
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 88.89% 40.33 3.24 33.33% -1.226 -0.0993
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 8.338 50.0% -0.473 1.5462
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 31.33 0.485 0.0% -1.085 0.8205

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 3724 73.42 31.84 -1.236 60.34% -0.197 0.1357
1 Thematic 1341 74.12 37.52 1.488 44.44% -0.154 0.3437
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 722 74.62 34.79 0.522 66.9% 0.021 0.2216
2 Coastline 65 68.75 32.46 -0.471 72.31% -0.08 0.0747
2 Fragment 22 100.0 27.64 -3.196 31.82% -0.867 -0.4711
2 Heart 26 100.0 29.0 -2.105 23.08% -0.462 -0.1393
2 Opposite Shores 152 71.14 33.07 -0.098 64.47% -0.128 0.1012
2 Thematic 251 80.48 37.78 0.555 50.2% 0.204 0.2649
2 Top to Top 23 82.61 37.78 2.19 69.57% 0.646 0.7781
3 Coastline 1 100.0 45.0 6.403 100.0% 0.281 0.2431
3 Other 7 71.43 33.29 -0.849 71.43% -0.05 0.37
3 Round (Default) 282 74.47 35.16 0.251 59.57% -0.156 -0.1
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 -3.908 0.0% -0.225 -0.4189
3 Thematic 59 72.88 39.36 -0.4 54.24% -0.129 -0.4581
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 6.393 100.0% 0.49 0.6024
4 Thematic 60 80.0 38.42 -1.178 45.0% 0.239 -0.7851
4 Trapezoid (Default) 132 63.85 37.15 1.028 68.18% -0.172 -0.1369
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 27.476 100.0% 0.765 0.5106

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 541 31.26 -2.297 45.84% -1.949 0.1249
Aid From Lesser Spirits 375 34.35 -0.528 54.67% -1.506 0.4136
All Things Weaken 144 30.0 -2.884 45.83% -1.977 0.182
Back Against the Wall 379 33.03 -1.424 50.4% -1.803 0.2913
Disintegrating Ecosystem 505 28.34 -3.872 44.55% -2.13 0.0946
Downward Spiral 596 29.9 -2.668 51.68% -1.769 0.2516
Erosion of Will 507 28.74 -3.541 40.24% -2.253 -0.0443
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 44 37.8 0.551 72.73% -0.789 -0.0962
Memory Fades to Dust 619 29.11 -3.062 46.53% -1.985 0.2333
Power Corrodes the Spirit 174 30.29 -2.375 45.98% -1.821 0.1994
Promising Farmlands 400 29.88 -2.92 45.25% -2.005 0.2092
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 37.32 1.397 76.47% -0.35 0.0607
Thriving Communities 165 30.76 -2.602 50.91% -1.759 0.3346
Tipping Point 279 28.51 -3.816 35.48% -2.326 -0.1001
Unnatural Proliferation 157 29.71 -2.537 41.4% -1.997 0.0923
Untended Land Crumbles 150 30.52 -2.698 43.33% -1.953 0.1533

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1197 73.47% 32.32 -0.682 61.15% 0.277 -0.8353
B 1268 74.52% 32.35 -0.685 59.38% 0.26 -0.9482
C 1355 70.99% 33.39 0.187 68.34% 0.701 -0.7388
D 1192 75.34% 32.81 -0.225 61.49% 0.45 -0.7521
E 319 71.07% 36.66 1.041 70.85% 0.642 -0.6704
F 610 70.28% 34.53 0.16 62.62% 0.371 -0.8949
G 595 79.97% 33.16 -0.337 54.12% 0.35 -0.9067
H 632 70.06% 35.6 0.82 61.87% 0.607 -0.6585
East 507 74.36% 39.62 1.641 51.28% 0.163 -0.8174
Northeast 508 69.88% 41.58 2.523 55.91% 0.41 -0.5208
Northwest 420 79.29% 38.11 0.535 48.33% 0.128 -0.8715
Southeast 107 66.36% 39.83 0.989 63.55% 0.158 -0.8679
Southwest 244 84.02% 27.11 -3.172 17.21% -0.768 -1.3885
West 468 79.7% 36.59 -0.064 40.6% -0.207 -0.9321

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 30.76 -4.256 71.43% -1.643 0.4117
Not Using Events or Tokens 98 80.41% 30.45 -1.014 56.12% -0.085 0.1324
Skip Initial Invader Actions 198 23.16% 57.76 7.395 93.94% 1.198 0.5046
Start of Game Growth 217 27.05% 56.21 6.801 92.17% 0.991 0.5278
Unlimited Undo 216 67.65% 37.21 0.005 64.81% -0.072 -0.4929
Using Tokens but Not Events 559 69.02% 32.14 -0.806 65.65% -0.003 -0.0549

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1566 22.34 6.32%
II 2304 30.81 52.0%
III 2062 34.31 83.22%
IV 940 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.182 Win Model: -0.161
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5074 73.62% 33.38 56.21%
2 1256 76.18% 34.72 61.86%
3 348 74.43% 35.93 58.91%
4 194 68.75% 37.82 61.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 79
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1276
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 915
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 699
Lose: Invader deck ran out 67
Lose: Adversary condition 563
Win: Sacrifice victory 32
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2034
Lose: Spirit destroyed 255

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)