Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 9 77.78% 21.67 -0.011 33.33% -0.161 0.0764
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 0.0% 0.0 -9.132 0.0% -0.398 -0.5215
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 100.0% 50.0 12.698 100.0% 0.343 0.4151
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -13.158 0.0% -0.51 -0.4924
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 100.0% 21.0 2.263 0.0% -0.193 0.1626
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 223 52.91% 27.52 -2.661 51.12% -0.315 0.0774
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 60.0% 34.76 -7.071 56.67% -0.36 -0.0562
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 58 68.97% 36.5 23.646 46.55% 0.535 1.051
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 26.51 0.0 26.23%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 38.03 0.0 32.26%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 182 87.91% 24.82 0.0 1.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 429 60.14% 27.91 -4.591 57.11% -0.741 -0.5601
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 409 61.37% 30.55 1.888 56.48% 0.354 0.3981
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 240 60.83% 38.81 2.228 62.92% -0.326 -0.3005
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 128 74.22% 43.86 20.653 56.25% 0.693 0.8976
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 106 73.58% 43.73 9.594 48.11% -0.425 -0.1363
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 52 57.69% 27.17 -1.718 15.38% -0.456 0.8037
The Kingdom of England 0 1 400 58.75% 27.09 -1.938 51.75% -0.389 -0.0746
The Kingdom of England 1 3 207 63.29% 35.84 0.613 57.97% -0.094 0.1604
The Kingdom of England 2 4 199 66.33% 29.18 -2.478 37.19% -0.751 -0.2295
The Kingdom of England 3 6 75 78.67% 33.97 -1.168 33.33% -0.187 0.8721
The Kingdom of England 4 7 111 83.78% 31.23 -1.47 19.82% -0.487 0.4897
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 35.29 -9.839 20.83% -0.387 1.2173
The Kingdom of England 6 11 132 75.0% 28.33 -6.244 6.82% -0.52 1.397
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 382 63.35% 27.85 2.968 46.34% 0.141 0.5047
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 234 74.79% 28.99 -5.82 38.89% -0.857 -0.2004
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 115 65.79% 31.57 -0.945 29.57% -0.657 0.5063
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 126 64.29% 31.21 0.356 20.63% -0.699 0.5982
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 192 69.79% 35.39 0.0 16.15%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 90 71.11% 34.96 1.766 12.22% -0.277 1.0955
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 82 39.02% 17.22 -0.42 34.15% -0.102 0.1498
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 37 35.14% 18.43 -3.927 29.73% -0.772 -0.3263
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 36 52.78% 19.14 -0.408 25.0% -0.03 0.3353
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 28 57.14% 28.68 9.591 28.57% 0.027 -0.0075
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 70.83% 35.58 13.255 45.83% 0.148 0.6807
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 14.4 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 48.15% 31.11 0.0 14.81%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 361 58.17% 27.71 -5.779 55.96% -0.599 -0.2956
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 342 60.53% 29.62 2.085 54.68% 0.06 0.1392
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 245 62.04% 32.37 -0.752 52.24% -0.463 -0.2281
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 104 62.5% 35.3 3.037 48.08% -0.138 0.1421
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 113 79.65% 34.75 19.39 34.51% 0.469 1.2749
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 75 65.33% 38.27 18.953 40.0% 0.345 1.4285
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 93 86.02% 35.29 0.0 27.96%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 181 51.93% 28.73 -0.294 60.22% -0.088 0.1189
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 97 67.01% 28.09 -7.021 40.21% -0.782 0.0124
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 86 58.14% 25.13 4.24 32.56% -0.308 -0.0816
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 40 47.5% 19.9 -5.936 17.5% -0.399 0.6638
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 35 65.71% 23.8 -2.747 14.29% -1.463 -0.4188
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 50.0% 37.67 -6.629 33.33% -0.22 1.2766
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 51 39.22% 22.0 0.0 7.84%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5529 64.39 28.2 54.4% 0.116 0.3696 -0.391
1 Thematic 1598 66.4 34.35 42.99% 0.368 0.9658 0.315
2 Archipelago 5 60.0 53.4 60.0% 0.147
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1039 62.38 28.33 54.96% 0.466 0.5499 -0.598
2 Coastline 114 67.26 26.36 58.77% 0.62 0.4772 1.115
2 Fragment 33 93.94 27.52 36.36% 0.327 0.0595 0.58
2 Heart 17 88.24 30.88 52.94% -0.264
2 Opposite Shores 168 68.48 31.67 67.26% -0.029 0.016 0.638
2 Thematic 352 66.19 32.29 44.03% -0.763 -0.2846 -0.116
2 Top to Top 22 68.18 32.36 77.27% -0.208
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.053 -0.8525 -0.412
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.211
3 Other 11 63.64 36.45 81.82% -0.061
3 Round (Default) 394 68.02 31.18 54.31% -0.357 -0.4662 0.058
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 11.5 0.0% -0.277 -0.5632 -0.04
3 Thematic 75 52.0 29.48 40.0% -0.423 -0.3745 0.194
4 Other 10 60.0 29.2 60.0% -0.154 -0.9298 0.127
4 Thematic 46 47.83 29.78 50.0% 0.21 0.1816 -0.951
4 Trapezoid (Default) 159 60.76 33.31 59.12% 0.096 -0.0497 -0.075
5 Other 13 23.08 14.08 15.38% -0.252 -0.8709 -0.233
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.176
6 Other 4 0.0 41.0 75.0% 0.259 -0.0036 0.313
6 Star 2 0.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 28 42.86 24.61 25.0% 0.207 0.4946 -0.077
6 Two Centers (Default) 17 11.76 17.59 35.29% -0.386 0.0949 -0.414
7 Other 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.298

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 574 31.0 46.52% 1.115 1.2921 -0.128
Aid From Lesser Spirits 418 34.97 56.46% 0.486 0.4066 0.664
All Things Weaken 266 27.97 44.74% 0.164 0.4436 -0.3
Attenuated Essence 30 22.87 43.33% -0.128 -0.1185 0.706
Back Against the Wall 420 32.35 50.95% 0.823 0.8645 0.03
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 32 25.03 46.88% -0.162 0.0355 0.229
Burn Brightest Before the End 27 32.7 66.67% 0.726 0.7728 0.203
Disintegrating Ecosystem 558 27.29 44.98% 0.898 1.1709 -0.1
Downward Spiral 639 29.64 51.64% 0.442 0.5392 0.116
Erosion of Will 541 29.18 42.7% -0.141 0.116 -0.135
Intensifying Exploitation 53 28.64 50.94% -0.269 -0.0331 0.907
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 35.72 74.07% 0.181 -0.4347 -0.17
Memory Fades to Dust 646 28.43 44.74% 0.567 0.8006 0.041
Power Corrodes the Spirit 297 30.09 47.81% 1.094 1.3195 -0.135
Promising Farmlands 476 29.55 49.16% 1.632 1.8644 -0.166
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 32.24 57.89% 0.01 0.1104 1.0
Slow Dissolution of Will 41 25.22 48.78% -0.076 0.2681 -0.241
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 63 34.67 73.02% 0.592 -0.0974 0.518
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.31 68.75%
Thriving Communities 277 28.35 48.38% 0.65 0.8795 -0.342
Thriving Crops 18 26.94 61.11% 0.358 0.0792 0.669
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.387
Unnatural Proliferation 281 29.98 47.33% 0.653 0.8381 -0.336
Untended Land Crumbles 263 29.51 46.01% 0.39 0.6275 0.019

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1500 63.52% 27.56 52.0% -0.255 0.7321 -0.289
B 1560 65.14% 28.53 53.4% -0.213 0.6788 -0.453
C 1574 62.03% 29.31 59.21% -0.128 0.5765 -0.249
D 1388 64.88% 27.72 52.74% -0.192 0.7345 -0.216
E 870 59.03% 29.55 59.08% 0.033 0.8032 0.125
F 1255 61.4% 29.42 55.94% -0.404 0.4529 0.075
G 1152 69.16% 28.18 50.09% -0.245 0.5704 -0.093
H 1180 61.39% 30.57 56.95% -0.017 0.803 -0.208
East 1216 59.87% 35.56 49.34% 0.033 0.8467 -0.146
Northeast 651 58.83% 36.06 50.38% 0.113 0.8418 -0.017
Northwest 479 67.64% 34.13 46.14% -0.013 0.8303 -0.38
Southeast 233 52.36% 29.46 43.78% 0.263 1.0873 -0.035
Southwest 379 68.07% 24.63 21.37% -0.935 0.3154 -2.758
West 1192 68.71% 30.89 35.91% 0.195 1.1428 -0.867

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 69.39% 27.94 54.46% -0.644
Skip Initial Invader Actions 262 21.6% 53.06 90.08% 0.838 0.1917 0.993
Start of Game Growth 323 25.32% 48.5 83.28% -0.189 -0.7082 1.085
Unlimited Undo 483 46.6% 27.59 48.65% 0.241 0.1489 -0.045
Using Tokens but Not Events 819 56.57% 27.44 57.26% -0.13 -0.1357 -1.114

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2993 13.57 4.34%
II 2929 30.15 54.18%
III 2572 34.83 84.21%
IV 1157 38.65 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.269 Win Model: 0.293
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7253 64.48% 29.43 51.41%
2 1659 66.0% 29.87 55.58%
3 475 66.53% 31.21 52.84%
4 198 59.39% 33.53 60.1%
5 23 43.48% 21.52 8.7%
6 43 11.63% 21.77 39.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 129
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2138
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1579
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1149
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1415
Lose: Invader deck ran out 70
Lose: Adversary condition 639
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2253
Lose: Spirit destroyed 234

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-24 03:18:25 (Pacific Time)