Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 122 72.95% 36.65 -1.944 66.39% -0.365 0.1866
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 83 69.88% 43.86 6.212 72.29% 0.346 1.2236
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 40 75.0% 43.67 0.0 55.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 27 88.89% 40.96 0.0 40.74%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 90.0% 41.15 -3.279 35.0% -0.53 1.0575
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 0.0 1.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 64.71% 42.71 0.0 23.53%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 297 72.73% 33.3 -2.239 68.01% -0.493 -0.2492
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 274 72.99% 34.98 -1.368 64.6% -0.459 -0.5859
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 153 68.63% 47.27 4.688 77.12% 0.024 0.14
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 97 81.44% 46.68 1.321 57.73% -0.652 -0.2781
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 81 79.01% 48.35 0.0 53.09%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 24 87.5% 48.33 0.0 29.17%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 272 69.85% 31.26 -3.143 59.93% -0.858 -0.3417
The Kingdom of England 1 3 149 72.48% 41.03 1.47 65.77% -0.214 0.3953
The Kingdom of England 2 4 123 80.49% 37.33 5.904 47.97% -0.055 1.0723
The Kingdom of England 3 6 47 93.62% 37.38 -2.811 31.91% -0.363 1.3808
The Kingdom of England 4 7 92 89.13% 34.88 -2.664 21.74% -0.457 1.1213
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 75.0% 42.35 -0.844 25.0% -0.163 1.5745
The Kingdom of England 6 11 99 91.92% 34.87 4.081 8.08% -0.429 1.8702
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 270 76.67% 33.44 3.355 54.81% 0.262 1.1643
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 171 81.29% 33.94 1.436 45.61% -0.588 0.3026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 80 68.35% 37.09 -5.669 33.75% -0.496 1.9063
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 86 76.74% 36.13 0.0 22.09%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 155 68.39% 37.21 0.0 18.06%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 103 77.67% 37.83 0.0 12.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 68 80.88% 40.51 0.0 14.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 36.5 1.313 100.0% 0.37 0.2457
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 100.0% 37.5 3.838 50.0% 0.023 0.8514
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 33.33 2.388 33.33% -0.516 0.3547
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 14.821 33.33% 0.043 1.7418
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 243 65.84% 32.69 7.964 66.26% 1.053 1.2202
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 212 71.7% 35.99 0.826 64.62% -0.184 -0.4072
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 169 70.41% 38.33 6.712 61.54% 0.376 0.8291
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 58 81.03% 45.98 13.661 62.07% 0.286 0.5956
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 91 87.91% 40.27 13.246 39.56% 0.437 1.3889
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 47 74.47% 46.43 -0.226 46.81% -0.148 0.8331
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 91.55% 41.11 0.0 33.8%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 95 67.37% 37.67 0.208 78.95% 0.112 0.0557
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 63 84.13% 36.57 0.0 52.38%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 40 72.5% 37.7 -8.2 50.0% -1.004 -0.2932
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 62.5% 46.38 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 92.31% 39.46 0.0 30.77%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 88.89% 68.22 2.339 22.22% -0.577 1.4421

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3535 71.63 32.97 62.07% 0.606 1.6223 -0.65
1 Thematic 1265 73.75 37.75 45.3% -0.908 0.2645 0.103
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 71.33 66.67% 0.012
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 644 73.91 34.65 66.77% 0.385 1.1364 -0.206
2 Coastline 61 73.33 31.61 70.49% -0.364 0.2388 0.94
2 Fragment 24 100.0 27.92 33.33% 0.724
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.542
2 Opposite Shores 129 66.67 33.7 68.22% 0.061 1.0536 0.396
2 Thematic 223 80.27 39.09 52.47% 0.514 1.2124 -0.919
2 Top to Top 15 73.33 36.07 86.67% 0.22 0.7304 -0.278
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.464
3 Other 9 66.67 33.11 77.78% -0.082
3 Round (Default) 263 77.95 35.5 58.56% -0.627 -0.0319 -0.047
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.05
3 Thematic 48 75.0 41.85 56.25% 0.569
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 100.0% 0.651
4 Thematic 29 58.62 39.66 72.41% -0.195
4 Trapezoid (Default) 97 60.42 38.74 68.04% 0.215 0.1876 -0.31
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 100.0% 0.387
6 Thematic 2 100.0 55.0 0.0% -0.148 -0.4268 -0.01
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 50.0 55.5 100.0% 0.059 -0.0351

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 459 31.63 45.97% -0.862 1.0414 -0.537
Aid From Lesser Spirits 339 35.49 55.46% -0.735 0.9952 0.19
All Things Weaken 182 29.18 44.51% -0.482 1.5031 -1.213
Back Against the Wall 337 32.91 50.45% -0.982 0.8343 -0.462
Disintegrating Ecosystem 431 28.95 45.71% -0.499 1.5512 -0.543
Downward Spiral 498 30.95 51.81% -0.622 1.3713 -0.387
Erosion of Will 430 29.35 41.63% -0.55 1.5335 -0.619
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 58 38.91 77.59% 0.438 0.8787 0.016
Memory Fades to Dust 508 29.82 45.47% -1.121 0.9628 -0.447
Power Corrodes the Spirit 226 30.48 47.35% 0.37 2.3081 -0.468
Promising Farmlands 361 30.88 48.75% -0.68 1.3661 -0.47
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 40 37.52 77.5% -0.105
Thriving Communities 213 29.94 48.83% -1.039 0.9442 -0.611
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% -0.044
Unnatural Proliferation 205 30.36 45.37% -0.094 1.8706 -0.392
Untended Land Crumbles 182 30.79 46.7% -0.191 1.8026 -0.619

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 928 72.26% 33.17 62.39% 0.307 1.1042 0.416
B 1003 73.39% 33.76 61.02% -0.261 0.4821 0.09
C 1027 70.45% 33.84 67.58% 0.247 0.8158 0.594
D 858 75.0% 33.25 62.24% -0.536 0.26 0.26
E 448 68.9% 36.44 71.65% 0.505 1.1522 0.48
F 790 69.2% 34.79 64.94% 0.168 0.8926 0.503
G 761 79.21% 33.32 56.37% 0.382 1.1139 0.621
H 768 68.59% 35.7 64.19% -0.269 0.443 0.418
East 849 70.2% 41.89 57.36% 0.485 1.2537 0.415
Northeast 439 69.25% 42.73 59.45% -0.683 0.1767 0.573
Northwest 339 76.99% 39.22 52.21% -0.777 0.2996 0.094
Southeast 125 67.2% 39.35 59.2% -0.009 0.6975 0.709
Southwest 268 83.58% 27.99 19.78% 0.191 1.3165 -2.882
West 892 78.92% 35.04 38.68% 0.024 0.9775 -0.354

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 32.53 78.95%
Not Using Events or Tokens 78 80.0% 30.56 57.69% 0.342 0.5165 -0.479
Skip Initial Invader Actions 207 21.72% 57.98 96.62% 0.595 0.4525 0.783
Start of Game Growth 243 27.16% 55.58 94.24% 0.444 -0.3165 1.566
Unlimited Undo 238 72.12% 39.06 68.07% -0.363 -0.9666 -0.383
Using Tokens but Not Events 504 65.78% 33.46 67.86% 0.863 0.7065 -0.906

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1373 22.56 6.77%
II 2186 30.98 53.89%
III 1932 34.53 83.18%
IV 881 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.097 Win Model: 0.182
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4829 72.28% 34.32 57.65%
2 1093 74.75% 34.95 63.77%
3 316 77.53% 36.1 58.54%
4 128 59.84% 39.35 69.53%
5 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
6 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 92
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1587
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1171
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 875
Lose: Invader deck ran out 60
Lose: Adversary condition 561
Win: Sacrifice victory 34
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1793
Lose: Spirit destroyed 199

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)