Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 88 72.73% 36.4 1.377 65.91% -0.107 0.1766
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 52 63.46% 44.73 3.635 73.08% 0.032 0.4263
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 25 68.0% 47.08 6.789 64.0% -0.284 0.5772
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18 88.89% 42.83 4.933 44.44% -0.599 0.6515
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 94.12% 40.53 4.901 35.29% -0.934 0.6004
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 -2.407 1.14% -3.28 -1.2115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16 68.75% 42.75 3.095 25.0% -2.13 -0.0522
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 309 72.49% 33.25 0.028 67.64% 0.061 0.1038
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 239 76.05% 35.44 1.05 65.69% -0.005 -0.0304
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 138 68.84% 46.9 6.83 76.09% 0.389 0.3886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 106 82.08% 44.48 5.767 52.83% -0.439 -0.1459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 87 78.16% 48.66 7.662 52.87% -0.515 -0.1445
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 64 90.63% 48.83 8.385 42.19% -0.54 0.2978
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 37 94.59% 40.76 3.901 18.92% -1.541 -0.2922
The Kingdom of England 0 1 313 69.33% 32.09 -0.455 62.94% -0.177 0.1535
The Kingdom of England 1 3 161 71.43% 40.09 2.813 62.73% -0.259 0.2306
The Kingdom of England 2 4 126 80.95% 37.62 1.82 50.0% -0.731 0.234
The Kingdom of England 3 6 53 94.34% 37.51 2.164 33.96% -1.161 0.4186
The Kingdom of England 4 7 89 92.13% 35.47 1.081 22.47% -1.793 -0.2786
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 76.19% 39.62 3.335 19.05% -1.865 0.2058
The Kingdom of England 6 11 95 92.63% 36.96 1.526 12.63% -3.157 -0.9001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 277 78.7% 32.51 -0.199 51.99% -0.534 -0.0083
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 170 82.84% 32.76 -0.689 41.76% -0.943 -0.0544
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 112 74.77% 36.44 1.585 33.93% -1.592 0.5358
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 90 76.67% 38.19 2.601 26.67% -1.886 0.2979
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 143 69.23% 36.71 2.309 16.78% -2.599 -0.4479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 75.76% 38.33 2.778 13.13% -2.777 -0.9505
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 80 75.0% 37.81 2.273 11.25% -3.167 -1.0392
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 259 68.73% 31.15 -0.999 62.93% -0.217 -0.1286
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 200 69.5% 34.85 0.688 61.5% -0.202 -0.1913
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 175 73.71% 37.61 1.311 59.43% -0.481 -0.2615
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 75 86.67% 41.61 4.194 50.67% -0.424 -0.1409
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 87 87.36% 40.64 3.176 39.08% -0.888 -0.1174
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 59 79.66% 42.64 4.787 38.98% -1.058 0.1096
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 92.96% 40.27 3.686 32.39% -1.371 -0.2391
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 59 67.8% 37.66 1.937 81.36% 0.778 0.6559
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 36 77.78% 39.47 2.035 61.11% -0.268 0.4473
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 20 60.0% 46.0 5.3 65.0% -0.287 0.1514
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 50.6 7.593 60.0% -0.468 0.7914
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 88.89% 40.33 3.207 33.33% -1.221 -0.0813
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 8.18 50.0% -0.479 1.5817
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 30.0 -0.132 0.0% -0.846 1.0901

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 3416 73.47 31.79 -1.25 59.95% -0.17 0.1884
1 Thematic 1277 73.84 37.38 1.47 43.7% -0.152 0.352
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 672 75.11 34.83 0.526 66.22% 0.042 0.2382
2 Coastline 60 67.8 32.5 -0.525 70.0% -0.172 -0.029
2 Fragment 19 100.0 28.84 -2.597 31.58% -0.626 -0.2039
2 Heart 26 100.0 29.0 -2.166 23.08% -0.471 -0.1782
2 Opposite Shores 139 72.79 33.6 0.15 64.75% -0.017 0.2079
2 Thematic 235 79.57 37.68 0.492 49.36% 0.179 0.2239
2 Top to Top 21 80.95 38.05 2.275 66.67% 0.576 0.7104
3 Coastline 1 100.0 45.0 6.275 100.0% 0.264 0.2305
3 Other 6 83.33 31.67 -1.854 66.67% -0.071 0.3448
3 Round (Default) 270 74.81 35.02 0.182 58.52% -0.157 -0.1177
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 -3.774 0.0% -0.227 -0.4504
3 Thematic 57 73.68 39.11 -0.523 52.63% -0.185 -0.5417
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 6.348 100.0% 0.471 0.5846
4 Thematic 59 79.66 38.29 -1.191 44.07% 0.158 -0.9288
4 Trapezoid (Default) 127 63.2 37.45 1.124 67.72% -0.163 -0.1802
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 27.204 100.0% 0.746 0.5273

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 508 31.27 -2.276 45.67% -1.915 0.155
Aid From Lesser Spirits 352 34.19 -0.618 53.41% -1.531 0.3872
All Things Weaken 125 30.18 -2.777 45.6% -1.932 0.2224
Back Against the Wall 354 33.11 -1.424 49.72% -1.792 0.3038
Disintegrating Ecosystem 479 28.46 -3.799 44.05% -2.106 0.1178
Downward Spiral 554 29.71 -2.747 50.72% -1.784 0.2332
Erosion of Will 487 28.66 -3.62 39.43% -2.277 -0.0672
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33 36.24 -0.195 63.64% -1.031 -0.3264
Memory Fades to Dust 577 29.11 -3.066 46.45% -1.969 0.2458
Power Corrodes the Spirit 164 29.91 -2.525 44.51% -1.813 0.2071
Promising Farmlands 365 29.61 -3.021 44.11% -2.008 0.2051
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 37.19 1.378 78.13% -0.211 0.2248
Thriving Communities 142 30.68 -2.619 50.7% -1.692 0.4056
Tipping Point 279 28.51 -3.82 35.48% -2.321 -0.1032
Unnatural Proliferation 132 29.91 -2.458 38.64% -2.002 0.0752
Untended Land Crumbles 132 31.05 -2.355 43.94% -1.797 0.3014

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1132 73.53% 32.39 -0.649 60.95% 0.273 -0.8163
B 1182 74.53% 32.35 -0.705 58.71% 0.224 -0.9618
C 1272 71.17% 33.39 0.178 67.77% 0.666 -0.7486
D 1128 75.71% 32.89 -0.179 60.99% 0.446 -0.7314
E 270 72.12% 36.89 1.004 69.63% 0.556 -0.721
F 540 70.5% 34.69 0.227 62.22% 0.379 -0.864
G 545 79.6% 33.22 -0.363 53.03% 0.29 -0.9402
H 585 70.22% 35.8 0.922 61.71% 0.633 -0.6074
East 486 73.87% 39.56 1.66 50.82% 0.175 -0.7754
Northeast 483 69.98% 41.37 2.426 55.07% 0.397 -0.4928
Northwest 403 78.66% 38.15 0.57 48.14% 0.133 -0.8322
Southeast 99 65.66% 39.39 0.775 61.62% 0.12 -0.882
Southwest 234 83.76% 27.03 -3.184 15.81% -0.89 -1.4981
West 444 79.28% 36.4 -0.146 39.41% -0.234 -0.9195

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 30.5 -4.72 70.0% -1.778 0.2659
Not Using Events or Tokens 91 78.89% 30.04 -1.184 54.95% -0.14 0.0794
Skip Initial Invader Actions 194 22.58% 58.11 7.524 93.81% 1.267 0.5624
Start of Game Growth 212 26.24% 56.44 6.804 91.98% 0.872 0.4173
Unlimited Undo 198 66.67% 37.89 0.312 65.66% 0.028 -0.3846
Using Tokens but Not Events 516 69.22% 32.12 -0.88 65.31% -0.003 -0.051

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1496 22.34 6.15%
II 2144 30.75 51.63%
III 1879 34.26 83.24%
IV 871 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.185 Win Model: -0.14
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4700 73.57% 33.35 55.6%
2 1168 76.53% 34.8 61.13%
3 334 74.85% 35.78 57.78%
4 188 68.28% 38.0 60.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 72
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 824
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 631
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 542
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1906
Lose: Spirit destroyed 243

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)