Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 93 74.19% 35.47 0.951 63.44% -0.182 0.0989
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 56 66.07% 44.64 3.713 73.21% 0.071 0.4609
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 26 69.23% 47.81 7.02 65.38% -0.258 0.6122
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18 88.89% 42.83 4.872 44.44% -0.624 0.6327
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 94.12% 40.53 4.923 35.29% -0.914 0.6149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 90.34% 25.32 -2.398 1.14% -3.333 -1.307
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16 68.75% 42.75 3.137 25.0% -2.124 -0.0542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 324 72.84% 33.16 -0.004 67.9% 0.074 0.1115
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 253 76.19% 35.32 1.062 65.61% -0.002 -0.0326
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 146 69.18% 47.02 6.935 76.71% 0.442 0.4465
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 108 82.41% 44.49 5.76 52.78% -0.429 -0.1377
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 89 78.65% 48.04 7.35 51.69% -0.588 -0.2269
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 65 90.77% 48.48 8.213 41.54% -0.546 0.2819
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 37 94.59% 40.76 3.904 18.92% -1.532 -0.2877
The Kingdom of England 0 1 321 69.47% 32.15 -0.44 63.24% -0.172 0.159
The Kingdom of England 1 3 166 72.29% 39.98 2.761 62.65% -0.264 0.2359
The Kingdom of England 2 4 129 81.4% 37.71 1.877 50.39% -0.698 0.2714
The Kingdom of England 3 6 55 94.55% 36.96 1.87 32.73% -1.199 0.3795
The Kingdom of England 4 7 89 92.13% 35.47 1.075 22.47% -1.792 -0.291
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 76.19% 39.62 3.338 19.05% -1.869 0.2011
The Kingdom of England 6 11 96 92.71% 36.96 1.492 12.5% -3.191 -0.9399
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 282 78.37% 32.71 -0.118 52.48% -0.522 0.0033
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 178 83.62% 33.31 -0.449 43.26% -0.882 0.011
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 113 74.11% 36.31 1.524 33.63% -1.625 0.5046
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 97 77.32% 37.79 2.369 25.77% -1.975 0.2116
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 143 69.23% 36.71 2.293 16.78% -2.598 -0.4552
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 75.76% 38.33 2.75 13.13% -2.803 -0.9801
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 81 74.07% 37.78 2.275 11.11% -3.188 -1.0728
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 268 68.28% 31.39 -0.926 63.43% -0.212 -0.1231
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 210 70.0% 35.24 0.879 62.86% -0.138 -0.1183
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 176 73.86% 37.74 1.379 59.66% -0.459 -0.2362
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 76 86.84% 41.82 4.287 51.32% -0.405 -0.1195
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 87 87.36% 40.64 3.171 39.08% -0.877 -0.109
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 80.0% 43.0 4.987 40.0% -0.989 0.1709
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 73 91.78% 40.75 3.92 32.88% -1.362 -0.2297
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 64 68.75% 38.11 2.04 82.81% 0.82 0.7002
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 41 80.49% 39.59 2.268 63.41% -0.146 0.5722
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 22 63.64% 46.82 5.748 68.18% -0.17 0.2722
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 50.6 7.529 60.0% -0.477 0.7738
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 88.89% 40.33 3.218 33.33% -1.222 -0.098
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 57.5 8.33 50.0% -0.47 1.5762
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 31.33 0.434 0.0% -1.091 0.8431

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 3567 73.38 31.86 -1.223 60.33% -0.181 0.1467
1 Thematic 1305 73.95 37.48 1.48 44.14% -0.149 0.3249
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 694 75.33 34.66 0.468 66.28% 0.013 0.2097
2 Coastline 60 67.8 32.5 -0.497 70.0% -0.176 -0.0255
2 Fragment 19 100.0 28.84 -2.614 31.58% -0.663 -0.2584
2 Heart 26 100.0 29.0 -2.135 23.08% -0.477 -0.1652
2 Opposite Shores 146 72.03 33.53 0.094 65.75% -0.043 0.1807
2 Thematic 241 80.08 37.63 0.463 49.38% 0.176 0.2041
2 Top to Top 23 82.61 37.78 2.178 69.57% 0.637 0.7773
3 Coastline 1 100.0 45.0 6.207 100.0% 0.259 0.2116
3 Other 6 83.33 31.67 -1.851 66.67% -0.083 0.3556
3 Round (Default) 273 74.73 35.08 0.209 58.97% -0.178 -0.1199
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 -3.845 0.0% -0.225 -0.4219
3 Thematic 58 72.41 39.28 -0.445 53.45% -0.16 -0.5211
4 Other 3 66.67 46.33 6.396 100.0% 0.488 0.6195
4 Thematic 60 80.0 38.42 -1.097 45.0% 0.246 -0.8134
4 Trapezoid (Default) 132 63.85 37.15 1.014 68.18% -0.199 -0.1607
5 Other 1 100.0 90.0 27.138 100.0% 0.74 0.5414

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 526 31.28 -2.294 45.82% -1.944 0.1268
Aid From Lesser Spirits 369 34.19 -0.609 54.2% -1.528 0.3934
All Things Weaken 130 30.0 -2.908 44.62% -1.995 0.1584
Back Against the Wall 367 32.99 -1.473 49.59% -1.833 0.2636
Disintegrating Ecosystem 490 28.34 -3.849 44.29% -2.124 0.1018
Downward Spiral 581 29.82 -2.713 51.29% -1.781 0.2376
Erosion of Will 501 28.75 -3.558 40.12% -2.262 -0.052
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 39 37.31 0.385 69.23% -0.857 -0.1637
Memory Fades to Dust 592 29.26 -3.002 46.96% -1.967 0.248
Power Corrodes the Spirit 167 29.96 -2.537 44.91% -1.85 0.1675
Promising Farmlands 383 29.66 -2.99 44.91% -2.006 0.2074
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 37.19 1.37 78.13% -0.23 0.2004
Thriving Communities 149 31.19 -2.414 52.35% -1.683 0.413
Tipping Point 279 28.51 -3.826 35.48% -2.329 -0.108
Unnatural Proliferation 139 29.5 -2.648 38.85% -2.063 0.0235
Untended Land Crumbles 138 31.28 -2.305 44.93% -1.833 0.2628

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1168 73.58% 32.44 -0.627 61.3% 0.282 -0.8194
B 1227 74.98% 32.29 -0.721 59.09% 0.241 -0.9556
C 1313 71.0% 33.35 0.168 68.24% 0.684 -0.7448
D 1164 75.43% 32.81 -0.226 61.25% 0.436 -0.7554
E 295 70.75% 37.03 1.1 71.19% 0.618 -0.6813
F 563 70.46% 34.72 0.217 62.52% 0.373 -0.8809
G 565 79.96% 33.21 -0.357 53.63% 0.314 -0.9279
H 602 70.57% 35.62 0.836 61.3% 0.608 -0.6489
East 494 74.09% 39.72 1.719 51.21% 0.182 -0.7783
Northeast 496 69.76% 41.51 2.479 55.44% 0.39 -0.5108
Northwest 411 78.83% 38.06 0.499 48.18% 0.108 -0.8668
Southeast 102 66.67% 39.59 0.819 62.75% 0.102 -0.9026
Southwest 241 83.82% 27.15 -3.125 17.01% -0.794 -1.3932
West 451 79.38% 36.43 -0.169 39.69% -0.255 -0.9545

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 30.5 -4.66 70.0% -1.758 0.2908
Not Using Events or Tokens 93 79.35% 30.16 -1.2 54.84% -0.165 0.0557
Skip Initial Invader Actions 195 22.46% 58.06 7.45 93.85% 1.195 0.49
Start of Game Growth 214 26.47% 56.46 6.833 92.06% 0.963 0.5108
Unlimited Undo 202 66.84% 37.62 0.167 64.85% -0.043 -0.4599
Using Tokens but Not Events 531 69.53% 32.21 -0.806 65.73% 0.018 -0.0331

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1526 22.33 6.29%
II 2213 30.75 51.88%
III 1973 34.25 83.27%
IV 904 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.172 Win Model: -0.13
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4880 73.54% 33.41 56.07%
2 1204 76.65% 34.69 61.38%
3 338 74.56% 35.87 58.28%
4 194 68.75% 37.82 61.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 76
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1203
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 865
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 664
Lose: Invader deck ran out 67
Lose: Adversary condition 550
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1957
Lose: Spirit destroyed 251

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)