Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 188 56.91% 29.16 -8.116 53.72% -1.009 -0.6257
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 110 65.45% 37.92 0.716 61.82% -0.065 0.1824
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 54 68.52% 36.76 -4.6 46.3% -0.436 0.4622
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 55 70.91% 29.4 -6.704 29.09% -0.42 0.5299
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 92.0% 39.88 0.0 32.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 180 88.33% 24.76 0.0 1.11%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 37.44 3.909 18.52% -0.356 1.6815
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 377 64.19% 29.65 3.535 60.48% 0.487 0.7245
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 351 65.24% 31.63 1.087 58.69% 0.117 0.2041
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 215 62.33% 40.29 -0.365 65.12% -0.51 -0.3686
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 125 75.2% 43.86 11.528 56.0% 0.571 0.7578
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 94 75.53% 46.79 0.0 52.13%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 91.53% 48.71 0.0 42.37%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 69.23% 33.95 0.0 20.51%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 350 62.86% 28.26 -1.856 54.0% -0.082 0.2912
The Kingdom of England 1 3 181 66.85% 37.72 4.28 60.77% 0.635 0.9733
The Kingdom of England 2 4 176 71.59% 31.34 -7.498 39.77% -0.887 -0.2236
The Kingdom of England 3 6 66 81.82% 33.33 -8.046 31.82% -1.141 -0.0156
The Kingdom of England 4 7 105 85.71% 31.76 4.996 20.0% -0.153 1.0766
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 65.22% 36.83 0.0 21.74%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 122 79.51% 29.43 -7.304 6.56% -0.638 1.3776
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 343 67.35% 29.08 -1.311 48.1% -0.255 0.1931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 214 77.57% 30.58 -0.199 41.12% -0.043 0.659
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 100 66.67% 34.62 1.593 33.0% -0.169 0.8342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 107 71.03% 33.12 10.819 21.5% 0.099 1.3758
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 191 70.16% 35.58 4.624 16.23% -0.846 0.5583
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 110 76.36% 37.39 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 84 75.0% 36.46 -7.057 11.9% -0.179 1.2567
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 57 42.11% 18.75 0.444 36.84% 0.283 0.5168
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 20 35.0% 20.1 -1.033 35.0% -0.179 0.3014
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 23 60.87% 22.13 4.948 26.09% 0.341 0.9033
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 58.33% 27.17 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 13 76.92% 24.38 -3.449 30.77% -0.426 0.2543
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 24 50.0% 33.33 1.028 16.67% -0.09 0.9741
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 320 60.31% 28.84 1.114 58.44% 0.636 0.8678
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 296 64.53% 30.79 2.692 56.08% 0.672 0.7344
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 219 66.21% 34.18 -2.775 55.25% -0.196 -0.0486
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 90 65.56% 37.26 6.803 51.11% 0.327 0.6905
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 109 81.65% 35.48 4.468 34.86% 0.161 0.8023
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 66 66.67% 38.29 -5.488 37.88% -0.098 0.8711
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90 86.67% 36.19 0.0 28.89%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 153 53.59% 30.9 -4.77 64.71% -0.62 -0.516
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 84 72.62% 31.52 -7.655 45.24% -0.317 0.5673
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 61 57.38% 26.28 -2.727 34.43% -0.385 0.1222
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 34 47.06% 22.09 -4.678 20.59% -0.518 0.5506
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 24 62.5% 27.21 -4.327 20.83% -0.936 -0.0023
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 66.0 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 41 46.34% 26.17 -2.537 9.76% -0.5 1.2356

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4864 66.79 29.59 56.7% 0.021 0.2813 -0.623
1 Thematic 1474 68.86 35.26 43.35% -0.238 0.2282 0.088
2 Archipelago 4 50.0 53.5 50.0% 0.079
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 910 64.97 29.56 57.14% 0.045 0.2302 -0.699
2 Coastline 100 68.69 26.75 58.0% 0.114 0.0974 1.297
2 Fragment 31 93.55 27.23 32.26% 0.467 0.1511 0.515
2 Heart 14 85.71 32.79 50.0% -0.406
2 Opposite Shores 151 66.89 32.63 67.55% 0.002 -0.0374 0.503
2 Thematic 305 71.8 34.39 46.23% -0.096 0.1904 -0.299
2 Top to Top 20 70.0 31.75 75.0% -0.228
3 Coastline 2 100.0 39.0 50.0% -0.091
3 Other 10 70.0 32.4 80.0% 0.253 -0.2102 -0.077
3 Round (Default) 335 71.64 32.41 55.52% -0.309 -0.5285 -0.131
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 23.0 0.0% -0.046
3 Thematic 64 57.81 32.83 45.31% -0.077 -0.3692 0.226
4 Other 8 62.5 32.75 62.5% -0.718 -0.9744 0.207
4 Thematic 37 51.35 32.62 56.76% -0.468
4 Trapezoid (Default) 142 61.7 34.51 61.27% 1.03 1.2449 -0.224
5 Other 10 30.0 18.3 20.0% -0.42 -0.9853 -0.215
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 75.0 50.0% -0.203
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 23 52.17 22.04 13.04% -0.09 0.0114 -0.145
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 20.0 22.2 40.0% -0.142
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.066

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 535 31.13 45.79% 0.251 0.4267 -0.258
Aid From Lesser Spirits 398 34.93 55.53% 0.77 0.7158 0.556
All Things Weaken 236 28.37 43.64% 0.693 0.9867 -0.342
Attenuated Essence 20 23.1 40.0% 0.313 0.3969 0.705
Back Against the Wall 395 32.35 50.38% 0.064 0.1114 -0.044
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 22.67 44.44% -0.578 -0.3748 -0.016
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 34.29 76.47% 0.832 1.0195 -0.245
Disintegrating Ecosystem 505 27.65 44.36% -0.825 -0.4163 -0.222
Downward Spiral 602 30.02 52.16% 0.958 1.0861 0.072
Erosion of Will 512 29.35 42.77% 1.653 1.9357 -0.162
Intensifying Exploitation 33 30.97 57.58% 0.562 0.8097 -0.059
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 74 36.53 75.68% -0.164
Memory Fades to Dust 614 28.65 44.95% 0.465 0.7021 -0.001
Power Corrodes the Spirit 274 29.83 46.72% 0.13 0.3484 -0.222
Promising Farmlands 436 29.7 48.17% 0.384 0.6783 -0.24
Shattered Fragments of Power 26 28.12 50.0% 0.391 0.5921 0.131
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 25.56 52.0% 0.274 0.6581 -0.56
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 53 37.0 75.47% 0.669 0.0879 0.64
The Border of Life and Death 10 38.6 80.0% 0.175 -0.3418
Thriving Communities 264 28.48 47.73% -0.427 -0.0881 -0.434
Thriving Crops 7 32.43 71.43% 0.685 0.6429
Tipping Point 150 30.87 39.33% 0.292
Unnatural Proliferation 254 29.89 46.46% 0.583 0.723 -0.21
Untended Land Crumbles 244 29.36 44.67% -0.238 0.211 0.012

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1297 65.45% 28.8 53.82% -0.277 0.585 -0.088
B 1379 67.61% 29.91 55.47% 0.121 0.9383 -0.318
C 1380 65.48% 30.82 61.59% 0.171 0.85 0.035
D 1204 67.59% 28.93 54.57% -0.203 0.6018 -0.025
E 719 61.0% 30.92 61.06% 0.128 0.7964 0.051
F 1097 64.05% 30.68 58.25% -0.302 0.496 0.199
G 1005 73.51% 29.77 52.34% 0.193 1.0183 0.13
H 1033 64.33% 32.1 59.15% 0.431 1.2036 -0.008
East 1082 63.12% 37.02 50.74% -0.431 0.4153 0.064
Northeast 572 62.24% 37.73 52.27% 0.091 0.8614 0.146
Northwest 423 72.34% 35.98 47.75% -0.572 0.2352 -0.212
Southeast 205 55.61% 30.23 43.41% -0.623 0.2467 0.163
Southwest 350 72.86% 25.49 20.86% 0.508 1.7895 -2.598
West 1085 72.72% 32.18 36.5% -0.174 0.8223 -0.753

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 32.17 78.26%
Not Using Events or Tokens 97 71.28% 28.55 55.67% -0.657
Skip Initial Invader Actions 242 21.74% 54.78 92.98% 0.596 -0.0186 1.068
Start of Game Growth 288 27.47% 52.1 89.24% 0.128 -0.454 1.408
Unlimited Undo 380 52.59% 30.67 53.68% -0.651 -0.6067 -0.114
Using Tokens but Not Events 718 59.46% 28.6 59.05% -0.487 -0.5449 -1.14

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2417 15.74 4.96%
II 2696 30.48 54.08%
III 2344 34.79 83.58%
IV 1063 38.41 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.061 Win Model: -0.103
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6423 67.05% 30.83 53.28%
2 1474 68.12% 30.93 56.85%
3 400 71.25% 32.95 55.25%
4 179 59.55% 34.44 61.45%
5 20 50.0% 24.75 10.0%
6 24 20.83% 19.0 29.17%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 119
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1933
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1450
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1056
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 891
Lose: Invader deck ran out 65
Lose: Adversary condition 617
Win: Sacrifice victory 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2123
Lose: Spirit destroyed 224

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)