Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 206 56.8% 31.16 -3.419 51.94% -0.656 -0.2113
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 136 50.74% 40.52 -5.873 63.24% -0.161 0.1463
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 64 65.63% 40.81 -12.793 54.69% -0.336 0.4392
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 62 64.52% 39.47 4.996 43.55% 0.301 1.2681
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 27 59.26% 51.89 10.048 55.56% -0.174 1.2528
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 19 78.95% 45.05 4.708 21.05% -0.233 1.2023
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 172 26.9% 72.62 6.771 39.53% -1.137 0.9599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 629 41.63% 32.62 -3.537 65.02% -0.265 -0.0257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 498 46.37% 33.85 -4.132 62.65% -0.649 -0.5339
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 371 56.6% 41.95 0.442 63.07% -0.287 -0.179
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 160 61.25% 42.36 -4.276 51.88% -0.843 -0.62
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 157 52.87% 50.57 -4.109 57.96% -0.686 -0.3975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 68 64.71% 58.13 -13.767 50.0% -0.377 0.217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 340 60.0% 71.9 4.27 41.47% -1.027 0.4593
The Kingdom of England 0 1 653 45.13% 30.94 -0.18 59.88% 0.026 0.3536
The Kingdom of England 1 3 342 42.52% 32.27 -5.073 50.29% -0.87 -0.5671
The Kingdom of England 2 4 243 60.49% 34.36 -0.93 41.98% -0.223 0.5054
The Kingdom of England 3 6 173 69.77% 34.75 -1.834 29.48% -0.704 0.4913
The Kingdom of England 4 7 151 64.24% 37.7 -2.593 29.14% -1.003 0.2143
The Kingdom of England 5 9 74 79.73% 82.95 16.095 55.41% 0.088 1.76
The Kingdom of England 6 11 746 64.1% 100.64 14.189 58.04% -0.678 1.3822
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 417 46.04% 32.88 -10.151 56.59% -1.272 -0.7169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 249 65.06% 34.29 -6.118 45.38% -0.456 0.2259
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 214 48.6% 41.8 -0.349 46.26% -0.869 0.2325
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 168 60.84% 38.52 -3.781 29.76% -0.903 0.4886
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 95 49.47% 43.12 0.0 29.47%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 96 46.88% 46.78 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 329 45.59% 71.02 6.274 39.82% -0.871 0.5488
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 85 20.0% 24.26 -5.878 49.41% -0.556 -0.3103
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 19 31.58% 24.63 -4.459 42.11% -0.85 -0.2193
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 23 52.17% 21.91 -12.044 34.78% -1.471 -1.0093
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 28 21.43% 24.75 -10.338 28.57% -0.51 -0.0441
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 20 45.0% 30.95 2.632 35.0% -0.66 0.1404
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 26.2 1.403 20.0% -0.404 0.1598
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 131 53.44% 81.21 21.637 50.38% 0.078 1.0447
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 559 42.7% 30.81 -0.261 62.97% 0.036 0.2405
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 406 46.55% 36.18 3.095 68.47% 0.421 0.4571
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 341 54.41% 35.05 -3.512 55.13% -0.563 -0.3489
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 247 53.04% 38.78 1.785 53.44% 0.097 0.4563
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 144 75.69% 33.83 -0.392 34.03% -0.48 0.2186
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 123 65.04% 36.5 -5.789 33.33% -1.471 -0.6747
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 355 49.01% 28.0 -8.422 19.15% -2.733 -1.6268
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 208 36.76% 31.91 -4.268 66.83% -0.183 -0.0132
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 107 59.81% 33.89 -12.674 51.4% -0.519 0.321
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 82 57.32% 32.89 -10.837 42.68% -0.799 -0.5798
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 49 67.35% 32.45 -9.043 26.53% -0.176 0.9199
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 49 57.14% 28.71 1.532 28.57% -0.119 0.8566
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 93.33% 34.07 0.0 13.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 856 53.15% 116.06 13.261 66.0% -0.343 1.3251

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7730 46.32 31.95 60.71% -0.029 0.0019 -0.595
1 Thematic 1823 51.99 39.68 49.15% -0.033 0.3987 -0.614
2 Archipelago 42 61.9 93.31 59.52% 0.357 0.8495 0.593
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1533 45.42 36.76 68.23% -0.567 -0.6162 0.046
2 Coastline 172 40.7 42.64 77.91% 0.168 0.0675 0.728
2 Fragment 34 73.53 33.82 52.94% -0.424 -0.8365 -0.727
2 Heart 20 27.78 40.1 85.0% -0.16
2 Opposite Shores 256 35.25 38.76 80.86% 0.464 0.2847 0.188
2 Thematic 1029 57.8 79.28 59.77% -0.175 0.0116 0.005
2 Top to Top 33 27.27 41.79 81.82% 0.567
3 Archipelago 35 71.43 118.34 74.29% 0.297 -0.8235 0.585
3 Coastline 3 100.0 65.67 66.67% 0.626
3 Other 24 29.17 42.46 66.67% -0.416
3 Round (Default) 686 37.0 36.87 70.26% 0.005 -0.261 0.085
3 Sunrise 11 45.45 42.91 81.82% 0.291 0.8022 0.48
3 Thematic 360 31.39 88.12 66.39% -0.699 -1.1458 -0.482
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 99.6 80.0% 0.783
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.103
4 Other 6 60.0 19.83 50.0%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 177 24.57 99.14 79.1% 0.799 1.0024 0.196
4 Trapezoid (Default) 243 47.68 36.97 67.49% -0.305 0.0352 0.222
5 Other 19 36.84 25.37 36.84% -0.006 -0.7276 -1.048
5 Thematic 14 42.86 89.86 57.14% -0.117 0.0429 0.107
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0% -0.13
6 Thematic 17 29.41 39.88 52.94% -0.327
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 10.0 16.4 40.0% -0.516
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.201
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.109

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 429 35.73 43.36% -1.202 -1.0636 -0.371
Aid From Lesser Spirits 325 37.83 49.54% 0.317 0.258 -0.423
All Things Weaken 249 45.58 49.0% -0.55 -0.1953 0.061
Attenuated Essence 24 38.92 50.0% 0.266 0.3765 -0.044
Back Against the Wall 320 31.86 40.0% -0.64 -0.5638 -0.889
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 23 45.43 47.83% 0.379 0.5901 0.64
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 50.59 40.91% 0.25 0.3709 0.25
Disintegrating Ecosystem 420 30.51 35.48% -0.092 0.2771 -0.755
Downward Spiral 1121 32.78 40.32% -0.496 -0.2993 -0.181
Erosion of Will 413 31.14 34.62% -0.579 -0.312 -0.679
Intensifying Exploitation 39 52.08 48.72% 0.103 0.3728 0.124
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 108 68.38 85.19% 0.686 0.1752 1.338
Memory Fades to Dust 1225 32.9 41.8% -0.522 -0.21 -0.168
Power Corrodes the Spirit 265 46.2 47.55% -0.243 0.0518 -0.071
Promising Farmlands 434 32.87 35.94% -0.381 -0.0446 -0.544
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 35.11 57.89% 0.436 0.5452 -0.428
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 38.29 50.0% -0.268 0.132 0.009
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 77 74.64 85.71% 0.627 0.014 0.845
The Border of Life and Death 10 77.5 80.0% 0.44 0.1478 0.733
Thriving Communities 251 47.26 47.01% 0.356 0.689 -0.098
Thriving Crops 15 83.6 66.67% 0.282 0.1954 0.666
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.245
Unnatural Proliferation 306 45.41 47.39% 0.15 0.2975 -0.144
Untended Land Crumbles 285 41.36 44.56% -1.029 -0.7223 -0.269

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2837 44.26% 32.8 58.58% -0.439 0.4658 -0.399
B 2514 44.11% 35.95 66.43% -0.124 0.7043 -0.159
C 2663 43.0% 35.68 67.44% 0.116 0.7961 -0.319
D 2318 46.26% 34.93 62.99% -0.174 0.6798 -0.242
E 1014 43.09% 36.34 67.46% 0.602 1.3037 -0.692
F 1410 44.6% 37.15 68.94% 0.141 0.9222 -0.163
G 1329 47.18% 37.37 67.19% 0.046 0.8181 -0.105
H 1333 45.17% 36.78 65.42% 0.326 1.0944 -0.473
East 2423 48.59% 68.03 59.72% 0.507 1.3684 0.064
Northeast 1302 41.4% 71.79 63.44% 0.609 1.3559 0.123
Northwest 937 47.05% 62.77 60.09% 0.004 0.8376 -0.095
Southeast 327 49.85% 49.74 55.05% 0.085 0.8609 -0.103
Southwest 256 52.96% 34.73 42.19% -0.983 0.3362 -0.885
West 2137 49.69% 66.47 56.06% -0.095 0.9113 -0.138

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 269 0.0% 33.94 82.16% -0.024 0.8067 -0.758
Not Using Events or Tokens 2798 48.94% 31.45 55.58% -0.115 0.3262 -0.326
Skip Initial Invader Actions 613 23.53% 47.48 79.61% -1.202 -1.7637 0.114
Start of Game Growth 657 20.54% 47.6 82.8% 0.758 0.2196 0.652
Unlimited Undo 959 48.01% 34.82 60.79% -0.672 -0.6313 -0.09
Using Tokens but Not Events 1713 36.64% 55.12 76.71% 1.637 1.6138 0.091

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5308 16.23 39.85%
II 3921 30.54 61.97%
III 2529 34.77 67.93%
IV 2535 38.37 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.456 Win Model: -0.091
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 10276 48.83% 37.58 58.07%
2 2638 41.47% 47.03 71.34%
3 993 36.68% 49.68 70.69%
4 332 47.06% 41.37 67.47%
5 24 25.0% 28.54 33.33%
6 30 33.33% 37.7 50.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2092
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1699
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2417
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1879
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1387
Lose: Invader deck ran out 289
Lose: Adversary condition 890
Win: Sacrifice victory 711
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2469
Lose: Spirit destroyed 460

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)