Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 11 9.09% 13.82 -3.436 27.27% -0.195 0.2918
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 6 33.33% 28.17 2.568 50.0% 0.385 0.405
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 4 25.0% 0.0 -10.121 0.0% -0.442 -0.2887
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 66.67% 61.0 5.332 100.0% 0.267 0.3948
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 33.33% 26.0 1.916 33.33% -0.241 0.2625
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.278 0.0% -0.16 0.8135
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 48 35.42% 76.56 6.951 54.17% -0.045 1.8726
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 243 52.26% 28.89 -11.722 48.97% -0.565 -0.0911
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 168 47.62% 37.83 -0.077 58.93% 0.115 0.4056
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 78 62.82% 37.15 3.728 48.72% -0.142 0.4005
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 70 64.29% 37.37 -4.268 40.0% -0.591 0.3543
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 33 51.52% 42.45 -9.484 45.45% -0.241 1.0371
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 68.18% 38.91 0.0 18.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 242 24.07% 76.18 3.517 42.98% -0.443 1.3542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 741 40.46% 30.67 0.118 61.4% 0.471 0.6937
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 609 43.73% 32.2 0.207 59.11% 0.001 -0.0323
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 471 52.23% 39.52 4.724 60.3% 0.496 0.5091
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 194 61.34% 39.52 -4.848 47.94% -0.382 -0.1406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 187 49.2% 46.18 -13.867 53.48% -0.9 -0.705
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 100 53.0% 42.04 -4.68 35.0% -0.253 0.1252
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 456 50.88% 68.02 8.324 39.69% -0.283 0.9573
The Kingdom of England 0 1 765 43.35% 28.81 -2.211 55.03% -0.267 0.0426
The Kingdom of England 1 3 384 42.56% 31.72 -6.26 49.48% -0.744 -0.4244
The Kingdom of England 2 4 307 56.21% 31.22 -2.122 38.11% -0.202 0.2767
The Kingdom of England 3 6 203 66.34% 33.13 6.604 28.57% -0.077 0.9632
The Kingdom of England 4 7 178 57.87% 34.31 -3.312 26.4% -0.164 0.8359
The Kingdom of England 5 9 102 63.73% 64.9 1.207 42.16% -0.091 1.4188
The Kingdom of England 6 11 976 57.98% 96.13 17.222 56.15% 0.261 2.1039
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 484 44.42% 31.37 0.135 54.34% -0.005 0.3718
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 276 62.32% 32.64 -4.664 43.12% -0.7 0.1774
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 236 47.46% 39.84 0.667 44.07% -0.216 0.9673
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 196 58.25% 37.71 8.416 30.1% 0.101 1.2412
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 109 49.54% 40.64 0.0 25.69%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 98 46.94% 46.23 1.47 24.49% -0.283 0.9893
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 446 38.88% 74.78 1.213 42.38% -1.352 0.0411
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 131 24.43% 23.29 -5.843 46.56% -0.215 0.1039
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 40 30.0% 24.35 -9.222 37.5% -0.967 -0.4786
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 43 46.51% 21.35 -5.97 27.91% -1.297 -0.8906
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 40 20.0% 28.6 9.705 30.0% -0.157 -0.1294
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 32 46.88% 24.81 -5.527 28.13% -0.503 0.0032
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 13 30.77% 19.46 -10.376 7.69% -0.32 0.1373
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 213 44.6% 76.18 -8.491 46.48% -1.388 -0.3082
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 660 40.4% 28.53 -3.812 58.33% -0.356 -0.1132
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 526 46.2% 32.18 -2.294 59.89% -0.244 -0.2097
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 396 50.76% 33.37 -0.741 53.28% 0.406 0.6473
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 317 58.68% 34.63 1.422 44.16% 0.394 0.6445
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 169 69.23% 31.11 -7.798 30.77% -1.047 -0.292
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 149 62.42% 31.72 -10.405 28.19% -1.305 -0.2067
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 438 47.95% 29.53 5.578 19.86% -0.461 0.4346
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 271 33.71% 29.31 -5.042 60.15% -0.129 0.1113
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 134 53.73% 29.35 -10.89 43.28% -1.64 -0.886
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 108 50.0% 28.94 -10.483 38.89% -0.309 0.0593
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 58 63.79% 28.64 -8.426 22.41% -0.547 0.6225
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 68 55.88% 26.47 -4.95 25.0% -1.159 -0.2026
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 87.5% 31.94 0.0 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1186 46.08% 112.78 18.784 64.76% -0.023 1.4934

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9286 44.74 30.5 58.22% 0.482 1.0087 -0.642
1 Thematic 2060 50.81 37.39 46.7% -0.623 0.2314 -0.7
2 Archipelago 50 62.0 85.3 58.0% 0.616
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1794 43.08 34.95 64.99% 0.203 0.4806 0.092
2 Coastline 222 39.64 39.42 71.17% -0.852 -0.7492 0.861
2 Fragment 35 74.29 34.06 54.29% -0.631
2 Heart 25 34.78 39.36 84.0% 1.045 1.1566 0.093
2 Opposite Shores 356 36.34 34.71 70.51% 0.724 1.0606 -0.012
2 Thematic 1291 54.11 76.77 57.47% -0.182 0.5072 -0.098
2 Top to Top 48 29.17 40.48 75.0% 0.269 0.5112 0.092
3 Archipelago 63 65.08 111.25 68.25% -0.22 -0.9401 0.522
3 Coastline 4 66.67 57.25 75.0% 0.382 0.0415 0.754
3 Other 26 30.77 41.04 65.38% 0.267 -0.3348 -0.3
3 Round (Default) 821 35.42 34.25 65.04% -0.632 -0.6258 0.281
3 Sunrise 11 45.45 42.91 81.82% 0.65
3 Thematic 581 22.07 93.78 67.13% 0.095 0.1793 -0.313
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 99.6 80.0% 0.947
4 Leaf 3 0.0 55.67 100.0% 0.152
4 Other 8 57.14 19.88 50.0% -0.111 -0.7302 -0.084
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 239 20.25 87.19 69.04% -0.329 -0.0613 0.131
4 Trapezoid (Default) 367 35.73 27.51 49.86% -0.49 -0.3257 -0.059
5 Other 21 33.33 22.95 33.33% -0.765
5 Thematic 15 46.67 87.87 53.33% 0.119
6 Other 3 66.67 23.33 66.67% -0.142
6 Star 8 50.0 9.88 0.0% -0.732
6 Thematic 22 31.82 40.05 50.0% 0.244 0.3474 -0.311
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 13.33 13.27 33.33% -0.298 0.2668 -0.5
7 Archipelago 6 66.67 99.5 50.0% 0.019
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.045

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 473 34.25 42.07% -0.069 0.1803 -0.154
Aid From Lesser Spirits 347 38.11 49.86% 0.673 0.5549 -0.043
All Things Weaken 284 45.23 47.89% -0.331 0.006 0.225
Attenuated Essence 43 39.65 41.86% -0.541 -0.5139 0.137
Back Against the Wall 346 32.86 41.91% 0.219 0.2203 -0.419
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 43.33 45.83% 0.507 0.7237 0.767
Burn Brightest Before the End 36 45.58 50.0% 0.262 0.2438 0.767
Disintegrating Ecosystem 465 30.33 35.05% 0.432 0.8248 -0.546
Downward Spiral 1357 31.3 38.76% -0.225 -0.1164 0.099
Erosion of Will 453 31.39 34.44% -0.083 0.2697 -0.553
Intensifying Exploitation 59 48.76 47.46% -0.308 -0.0627 0.348
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 118 68.63 82.2% 0.278 -0.2458 1.333
Memory Fades to Dust 1421 31.94 39.48% -0.411 -0.1633 0.157
Power Corrodes the Spirit 303 44.51 46.86% 0.49 0.7116 0.105
Promising Farmlands 481 33.09 36.8% 0.173 0.4562 -0.312
Shattered Fragments of Power 40 35.2 50.0% 0.197 0.2744 0.043
Slow Dissolution of Will 48 41.85 45.83% 0.313 0.7099 -0.056
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 89 74.27 84.27% 0.327 -0.3679 1.084
The Border of Life and Death 25 68.52 72.0% 0.083 -0.5181 0.817
Thriving Communities 293 45.83 46.42% -0.455 -0.0989 0.176
Thriving Crops 32 63.41 68.75% -0.37 -0.5664 0.324
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.029
Unnatural Proliferation 345 45.04 46.38% 0.178 0.34 0.06
Untended Land Crumbles 318 42.08 42.77% -0.651 -0.4194 -0.117

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3560 41.29% 30.66 55.14% -0.643 0.3619 -0.493
B 3158 41.29% 32.91 60.54% 0.007 0.9266 -0.217
C 3380 40.9% 32.71 60.98% -0.54 0.1944 -0.41
D 2894 43.13% 32.11 57.95% -0.238 0.7402 -0.272
E 1237 41.65% 34.91 64.59% 0.156 0.9759 -0.563
F 1662 43.35% 36.11 65.94% -0.109 0.7644 -0.167
G 1536 45.58% 35.48 62.96% -0.004 0.8048 -0.2
H 1547 43.59% 35.97 62.96% -0.166 0.6488 -0.428
East 3076 44.03% 68.39 57.87% -0.145 0.7578 0.002
Northeast 1722 34.91% 72.83 61.44% 0.55 1.3583 0.115
Northwest 1113 43.1% 59.18 56.15% -0.81 0.0901 -0.136
Southeast 396 46.46% 47.8 52.27% -0.429 0.422 -0.225
Southwest 316 48.88% 33.91 41.14% -0.228 1.1473 -0.67
West 2710 44.61% 67.18 54.76% 0.509 1.4642 -0.046

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 302 0.0% 32.29 76.49% -0.005 0.7029 -0.285
Not Using Events or Tokens 3579 47.08% 27.89 49.09% -0.225 0.1435 -0.525
Skip Initial Invader Actions 654 24.44% 46.27 77.37% 0.201 -0.3838 0.225
Start of Game Growth 706 19.23% 46.18 80.74% -0.082 -0.5957 0.623
Unlimited Undo 1111 43.92% 33.05 57.7% 0.282 0.1727 -0.173
Using Tokens but Not Events 2176 32.85% 53.3 75.09% 0.823 0.7977 0.123

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6956 13.33 35.21%
II 4474 30.1 60.62%
III 2891 34.83 67.59%
IV 3070 38.67 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.544 Win Model: 0.386
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 12253 47.18% 35.93 55.68%
2 3379 37.96% 48.69 67.77%
3 1194 34.34% 47.21 66.58%
4 489 35.63% 31.12 51.12%
5 28 28.57% 30.14 32.14%
6 48 35.42% 28.63 37.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2425
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1933
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2698
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2183
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2596
Lose: Invader deck ran out 320
Lose: Adversary condition 999
Win: Sacrifice victory 946
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2771
Lose: Spirit destroyed 520

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)