Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 195 55.9% 31.97 -1.922 53.33% -0.401 -0.0213
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 135 50.37% 40.82 -13.543 63.7% -0.504 -0.2266
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 63 66.67% 41.46 1.807 55.56% -0.119 0.6406
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 63.93% 39.13 5.307 42.62% 0.042 1.1617
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 23 65.22% 51.35 23.261 52.17% 0.478 1.8341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 19 78.95% 45.05 -5.905 21.05% -0.407 0.888
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 167 26.51% 73.8 4.912 40.12% -1.032 0.917
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 613 41.73% 33.01 -3.791 65.74% -0.697 -0.49
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 490 46.93% 34.22 -6.155 63.27% -1.835 -1.8255
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 358 55.87% 42.59 -1.009 64.53% -0.593 -0.5659
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 155 61.94% 43.0 -8.884 52.9% -1.25 -0.9621
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 151 54.97% 51.07 2.767 58.28% -0.251 0.0464
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 68 64.71% 58.13 -10.143 50.0% -0.783 -0.1802
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 322 60.87% 72.94 10.52 42.24% -0.611 0.7822
The Kingdom of England 0 1 637 44.85% 31.14 -2.474 60.28% -0.564 -0.2405
The Kingdom of England 1 3 336 42.69% 32.57 -0.591 50.89% -0.561 -0.2664
The Kingdom of England 2 4 239 61.09% 34.73 -0.23 42.26% -0.885 -0.1616
The Kingdom of England 3 6 165 70.73% 35.4 0.199 29.7% -0.828 0.4079
The Kingdom of England 4 7 148 64.86% 38.47 -1.999 29.73% -1.281 -0.0999
The Kingdom of England 5 9 72 79.17% 81.89 10.985 54.17% -0.687 0.887
The Kingdom of England 6 11 720 64.25% 100.18 10.791 57.64% -0.832 1.1097
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 407 46.93% 33.29 -2.919 57.49% -0.49 -0.0088
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 247 64.78% 34.56 -4.407 45.75% -0.476 0.3608
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 210 48.1% 42.06 -1.435 46.67% -0.989 0.0418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 157 60.65% 39.85 7.233 30.57% -0.271 1.1342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 95 49.47% 43.12 -4.147 29.47% -0.507 0.9142
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 96 46.88% 46.78 -0.251 25.0% -0.16 0.6874
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 316 45.89% 70.71 -2.04 39.24% -1.838 -0.4515
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 79 18.99% 24.87 -0.041 50.63% 0.106 0.3917
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 15 33.33% 26.8 1.287 46.67% -0.258 0.2219
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 19 52.63% 25.58 -12.562 42.11% -0.793 -0.5149
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 27 18.52% 25.67 0.486 29.63% -0.196 0.2157
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 17 47.06% 34.24 8.409 41.18% 0.078 0.9639
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 26.2 -3.505 20.0% -0.767 0.0419
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 127 55.12% 80.45 13.325 49.61% -0.696 0.325
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 539 42.99% 31.14 -0.38 63.64% -0.178 -0.0291
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 394 46.19% 36.19 0.053 68.27% -0.293 -0.1654
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 334 54.65% 35.26 -4.538 55.39% -1.162 -0.9639
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 235 53.62% 39.91 -3.797 54.89% -1.519 -1.1013
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 136 78.68% 35.17 -0.794 35.29% -0.323 0.3816
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 118 67.8% 38.04 -3.17 34.75% -1.394 -0.4592
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 351 49.57% 27.95 -8.244 19.09% -3.301 -2.3101
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 199 37.44% 31.82 0.019 66.83% -0.204 -0.1048
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 106 60.38% 34.21 -3.778 51.89% -0.57 0.3784
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 81 56.79% 33.06 -2.058 43.21% -0.639 -0.3583
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 68.75% 33.13 -1.0 27.08% -0.49 0.6205
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 48 56.25% 27.69 -7.045 27.08% -1.335 -0.3256
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 93.33% 34.07 24.32 13.33% 0.472 2.1387
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 813 53.51% 116.51 15.852 66.05% 0.393 2.2021

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7478 46.62 32.19 61.09% 0.177 0.3683 -0.598
1 Thematic 1795 52.19 39.8 49.14% -0.546 0.0994 -0.632
2 Archipelago 42 61.9 93.31 59.52% -0.325 0.1073 0.561
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1496 45.68 37.25 69.12% 0.096 0.0924 0.015
2 Coastline 166 42.17 43.17 78.31% -0.177 -0.1213 0.679
2 Fragment 33 72.73 34.3 54.55% -0.279 -0.5452 -0.692
2 Heart 20 27.78 40.1 85.0% -0.163
2 Opposite Shores 248 35.17 39.04 81.45% 0.709 0.7228 0.174
2 Thematic 1007 57.87 79.38 59.78% -0.07 0.1271 -0.006
2 Top to Top 33 27.27 41.79 81.82% -0.585 -0.6827 0.547
3 Archipelago 24 75.0 119.38 75.0% 0.704 0.2577 0.629
3 Coastline 3 100.0 65.67 66.67% 0.623
3 Other 24 29.17 42.46 66.67% 0.362 -0.0305 -0.446
3 Round (Default) 664 37.78 37.43 71.23% 0.114 -0.2213 0.119
3 Sunrise 9 33.33 41.78 77.78% 0.465
3 Thematic 336 32.74 88.78 67.26% 0.402 0.1183 -0.449
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 99.6 80.0% -0.243 -0.4003 0.784
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.111
4 Other 6 60.0 19.83 50.0%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 175 24.86 98.49 78.86% 0.19 0.1101 0.221
4 Trapezoid (Default) 236 46.75 37.11 67.37% 0.183 0.0261 0.229
5 Other 16 37.5 28.69 43.75% 0.26 -0.815 -0.942
5 Thematic 12 41.67 92.0 58.33% 0.486 0.4794 0.104
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0% -0.116
6 Thematic 17 29.41 39.88 52.94% -0.922 -0.2733 -0.333
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 10.0 16.4 40.0% -0.513 -0.8473 -0.517
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.271
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.101

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 424 35.83 43.87% 0.406 0.5354 -0.366
Aid From Lesser Spirits 319 37.84 49.22% 0.236 0.1177 -0.45
All Things Weaken 243 44.99 48.97% -0.204 0.1039 0.102
Attenuated Essence 21 40.14 47.62% 0.099 0.1311 -0.069
Back Against the Wall 318 31.98 40.25% -0.213 -0.1836 -0.908
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 42.52 47.62% 0.514 0.7003 0.568
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 50.17 38.89% 0.436 0.5061 0.125
Disintegrating Ecosystem 407 30.16 35.38% 0.107 0.4828 -0.864
Downward Spiral 1100 32.89 40.36% -0.727 -0.5607 -0.227
Erosion of Will 402 31.11 34.58% -1.006 -0.792 -0.718
Intensifying Exploitation 31 53.26 45.16% -0.458 -0.2164 0.153
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 107 67.56 85.05% 1.23 0.6489 1.315
Memory Fades to Dust 1197 33.04 42.02% -0.98 -0.6868 -0.219
Power Corrodes the Spirit 262 46.14 47.33% -0.481 -0.3198 -0.099
Promising Farmlands 428 32.93 35.51% -0.225 0.0712 -0.552
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 36.29 58.82% 0.622 0.7104 -0.433
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 38.96 50.0% 0.028 0.4206 0.004
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 75 72.44 85.33% 1.256 0.544 0.76
The Border of Life and Death 8 77.88 87.5% 0.772 0.2923 0.572
Thriving Communities 242 46.57 45.87% 0.281 0.5806 -0.114
Thriving Crops 14 87.64 71.43% 0.471 0.3688 0.659
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.259
Unnatural Proliferation 297 45.49 47.14% 0.379 0.5486 -0.163
Untended Land Crumbles 276 42.0 45.65% 0.182 0.4405 -0.209

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2727 44.59% 33.3 59.37% -0.684 0.4582 -0.365
B 2441 44.44% 36.33 67.27% 0.182 1.2375 -0.095
C 2572 43.58% 36.02 67.96% 0.262 1.15 -0.251
D 2238 46.76% 35.04 63.54% 0.024 1.078 -0.217
E 979 42.89% 36.61 67.62% 0.569 1.4734 -0.67
F 1371 44.55% 36.75 68.93% -0.135 0.8692 -0.214
G 1280 46.71% 37.6 67.81% 0.263 1.2309 -0.1
H 1306 45.11% 36.5 65.77% 0.097 1.0902 -0.503
East 2358 48.96% 67.93 59.71% 0.55 1.538 0.081
Northeast 1257 42.01% 71.83 63.64% 0.43 1.3794 0.15
Northwest 923 47.44% 63.02 60.35% -0.383 0.6581 -0.095
Southeast 313 50.48% 49.61 55.27% -0.946 -0.0278 -0.183
Southwest 249 53.66% 34.87 42.97% -1.003 0.4541 -0.786
West 2090 50.24% 66.41 56.17% -0.47 0.6372 -0.143

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 264 0.0% 34.25 82.95% -0.057 0.6069 -0.635
Not Using Events or Tokens 2701 49.5% 31.98 56.35% -0.174 0.3205 -0.269
Skip Initial Invader Actions 599 22.22% 48.07 80.97% -1.201 -1.8232 0.238
Start of Game Growth 647 20.96% 47.7 83.0% 0.063 -0.3498 0.503
Unlimited Undo 929 48.07% 35.29 61.79% -0.537 -0.6322 -0.073
Using Tokens but Not Events 1645 37.55% 55.29 76.47% 0.662 0.7373 0.081

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5087 16.77 40.42%
II 3830 30.59 62.11%
III 2483 34.74 67.82%
IV 2466 38.3 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.296 Win Model: 0.098
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9982 49.1% 37.84 58.3%
2 2548 41.84% 46.97 72.1%
3 960 37.32% 50.27 71.46%
4 326 46.23% 41.17 67.18%
5 20 25.0% 33.1 40.0%
6 30 33.33% 37.7 50.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2033
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1665
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2367
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1828
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1233
Lose: Invader deck ran out 282
Lose: Adversary condition 882
Win: Sacrifice victory 692
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2429
Lose: Spirit destroyed 455

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)