Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 164 58.54% 35.8 -2.636 59.76% 0.284 0.6529
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 124 52.42% 42.94 -8.763 66.94% -0.036 0.3071
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 54 70.37% 45.65 8.161 61.11% 0.115 1.0965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 51 72.55% 42.8 10.931 45.1% 0.121 1.4409
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 70.0% 51.45 8.856 50.0% 0.053 1.4286
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 92.86% 56.43 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 112 34.23% 77.58 4.203 41.96% -0.742 1.548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 510 43.73% 36.15 1.209 72.75% 0.359 0.2405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 389 49.87% 38.5 -3.345 71.98% 0.012 -0.1406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 294 60.88% 45.93 2.437 68.71% 0.257 0.3664
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 128 67.19% 48.33 6.727 60.16% 0.29 0.6895
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 138 58.7% 53.86 13.788 60.87% 0.369 0.6763
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 66.67% 63.03 11.454 55.0% 0.17 1.1096
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 244 70.08% 74.0 1.868 42.21% -1.304 0.1631
The Kingdom of England 0 1 525 47.69% 34.14 -6.189 65.71% -0.561 -0.2
The Kingdom of England 1 3 234 52.14% 42.18 1.672 65.38% 0.444 1.0003
The Kingdom of England 2 4 178 63.48% 39.37 0.0 48.88%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 139 73.91% 38.44 1.038 33.09% -0.227 1.2667
The Kingdom of England 4 7 115 69.57% 44.19 0.0 35.65%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 53 81.13% 79.26 14.642 54.72% -0.278 1.7932
The Kingdom of England 6 11 514 68.42% 103.76 16.298 59.34% -0.099 2.2123
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 351 50.71% 35.89 -5.891 61.25% -0.333 0.2488
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 226 67.26% 36.18 -3.927 47.35% -0.077 0.9903
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 186 49.46% 43.67 0.369 48.39% -0.63 1.2762
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 142 62.14% 41.02 -2.091 30.28% -0.506 1.6261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 90 48.89% 43.72 16.319 30.0% 0.146 1.9754
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 51.14% 48.57 -0.383 25.0% -0.179 1.572
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 224 53.13% 69.69 7.505 38.39% -0.775 1.3452
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 11 45.45% 44.91 1.772 81.82% 0.104 0.018
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 0.0% 57.5 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 80.0% 53.4 4.613 100.0% 0.331 1.3292
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 40.0% 62.4 9.638 80.0% 0.13 0.8149
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 35.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 102.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 64 70.31% 84.73 2.441 51.56% -0.918 0.7299
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 433 45.81% 35.12 -6.323 72.06% -0.881 -0.7929
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 319 47.96% 40.16 -1.714 75.86% 0.408 0.4451
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 263 59.16% 40.1 -4.476 62.74% -0.659 -0.4184
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 174 62.07% 48.28 2.983 66.67% 0.155 0.5522
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 119 84.87% 37.42 9.956 36.97% 0.216 1.0808
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 91 72.53% 42.51 -15.475 39.56% -0.452 0.8317
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 175 82.86% 46.87 -1.956 33.14% -0.337 0.7299
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 142 44.93% 36.73 -6.562 76.06% -0.067 -0.4189
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 78 64.1% 39.94 -0.3 62.82% 0.051 0.8206
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 60 61.67% 38.83 -3.102 51.67% 0.115 0.4132
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 37 81.08% 39.78 -9.343 32.43% -0.851 0.4654
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 78.57% 44.32 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 100.0% 36.0 12.942 9.09% 0.142 1.9128
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 497 61.17% 124.7 22.001 69.22% 0.418 2.3964

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5840 50.88 35.6 66.73% 0.465 1.0146 -0.655
1 Thematic 1558 54.91 42.97 52.95% 0.978 1.9763 -0.8
2 Archipelago 37 62.16 98.16 62.16% 0.264
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1232 48.81 39.91 72.81% 0.215 0.6255 -0.142
2 Coastline 131 41.22 47.12 84.73% 0.126 0.2615 0.745
2 Fragment 28 67.86 34.36 57.14% 0.155 0.1504 -0.483
2 Heart 19 29.41 42.21 89.47% -0.242
2 Opposite Shores 191 38.55 39.94 84.82% -0.555 -0.2012 0.559
2 Thematic 721 62.45 83.35 65.6% -0.581 0.3489 -0.011
2 Top to Top 27 29.63 42.44 85.19% 0.076 0.2029 0.402
3 Archipelago 8 87.5 101.88 62.5% -0.523 -0.3444 0.332
3 Coastline 3 100.0 65.67 66.67% 0.682
3 Other 15 46.67 43.07 86.67% -0.067
3 Round (Default) 545 39.93 41.33 78.35% -0.32 -0.1269 0.0
3 Sunrise 9 33.33 41.78 77.78% 0.314
3 Thematic 215 45.58 77.5 67.44% -0.203 -0.1878 -0.525
4 Archipelago 3 100.0 150.33 100.0% 0.159 -0.261 0.655
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.118
4 Other 2 50.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 137 25.19 103.18 86.86% -0.031 0.2515 0.75
4 Trapezoid (Default) 188 49.18 39.3 71.81% 0.566 0.7538 0.052
5 Other 4 100.0 57.75 50.0% -0.357
5 Thematic 9 55.56 108.44 55.56% 0.03 -0.9441 -0.053
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0% -0.153
6 Thematic 9 22.22 58.89 66.67% -0.461
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 25.0 30.25 75.0%
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.737
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.166

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 380 36.32 43.95% 0.003 1.7335 -0.831
Aid From Lesser Spirits 298 37.02 47.65% -0.434 1.1419 -1.03
All Things Weaken 214 43.03 48.6% -0.461 1.4166 -0.529
Back Against the Wall 284 32.2 39.79% -1.131 0.506 -1.369
Disintegrating Ecosystem 364 30.84 36.54% -1.176 0.6668 -1.206
Downward Spiral 913 33.27 41.51% -1.247 0.451 -0.949
Erosion of Will 369 31.59 36.59% -1.829 0.0714 -1.175
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 91 66.16 84.62% -0.315 0.1855 0.621
Memory Fades to Dust 1016 34.33 44.0% -0.888 0.9882 -0.795
Power Corrodes the Spirit 231 44.87 48.92% -0.847 0.8577 -0.671
Promising Farmlands 385 33.05 35.84% -0.754 1.1213 -1.05
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 59 65.42 83.05% 0.429 0.6387 0.022
Thriving Communities 217 46.25 46.54% -0.105 1.7659 -0.583
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.619
Unnatural Proliferation 257 44.69 47.47% -0.795 0.9593 -0.644
Untended Land Crumbles 236 43.12 46.19% -0.791 1.0233 -0.642

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2023 50.05% 38.87 69.2% -0.588 0.1892 -0.12
B 1950 46.9% 39.31 73.23% 0.049 0.7527 -0.007
C 2086 46.2% 38.99 72.77% -0.468 0.0593 -0.225
D 1795 50.08% 38.05 68.13% -0.277 0.458 -0.223
E 698 48.71% 38.56 71.2% -0.143 0.4408 -0.647
F 1122 47.85% 38.9 72.64% 0.497 1.204 -0.179
G 1043 49.51% 39.02 70.85% -0.355 0.2866 -0.128
H 1072 48.86% 38.85 69.78% -0.209 0.4362 -0.549
East 1777 53.08% 68.05 64.15% 0.723 1.3144 0.223
Northeast 949 47.72% 70.48 67.12% -0.053 0.6237 0.105
Northwest 784 50.83% 66.19 64.54% -0.466 -0.0286 -0.083
Southeast 243 54.73% 54.3 62.14% 0.029 0.6927 -0.436
Southwest 188 64.32% 42.14 50.53% -0.535 0.6365 -0.312
West 1628 55.52% 66.27 59.64% -0.461 0.3563 -0.228

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 242 0.0% 36.07 88.43% -0.185 1.8907 -0.229
Not Using Events or Tokens 2044 53.03% 36.86 64.33% -0.216 -0.0439 -0.114
Skip Initial Invader Actions 540 17.68% 50.67 87.04% 0.45 -0.6094 -0.018
Start of Game Growth 595 20.4% 50.1 86.72% -0.157 -0.5789 0.693
Unlimited Undo 733 53.05% 39.8 71.21% -0.08 -0.4952 -0.166
Using Tokens but Not Events 1233 40.41% 57.2 81.59% 0.18 0.2954 0.185

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3444 22.63 49.88%
II 3312 31.12 63.25%
III 2161 34.7 68.63%
IV 2029 37.97 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.928 Win Model: 0.364
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7875 53.13% 41.04 63.39%
2 2000 45.81% 45.99 75.75%
3 786 40.08% 53.58 78.12%
4 263 48.05% 44.75 72.62%
5 4 50.0% 77.5 25.0%
6 18 44.44% 55.67 66.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1697
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1471
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2083
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1565
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2
Lose: Invader deck ran out 259
Lose: Adversary condition 797
Win: Sacrifice victory 509
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2163
Lose: Spirit destroyed 400

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)