Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 101 51.49% 36.98 -0.312 65.35% -0.582 -0.3013
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 92 48.91% 44.42 2.44 71.74% -0.339 0.0513
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 70.73% 44.54 4.8 60.98% -0.385 0.4858
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 39 74.36% 42.38 2.611 43.59% -1.223 0.034
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 76.92% 49.08 6.412 46.15% -1.063 0.4652
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 36.57 1.657 14.29% -0.813 1.2128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 35.71% 70.4 12.913 66.67% -1.072 0.9985
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 543 45.2% 35.59 -0.735 71.64% -0.209 -0.1709
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 371 46.88% 38.44 0.813 71.16% -0.299 -0.329
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 269 59.18% 45.35 4.491 67.29% -0.281 -0.2764
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 143 65.73% 49.99 6.467 63.64% -0.42 -0.1291
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 127 59.84% 55.5 9.001 65.35% -0.401 -0.0404
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 57 75.44% 55.91 9.602 50.88% -0.638 0.1907
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 155 90.32% 44.46 4.249 23.87% -1.901 -0.6567
The Kingdom of England 0 1 571 48.59% 33.89 -1.426 64.62% -0.555 -0.2233
The Kingdom of England 1 3 266 54.51% 41.73 2.184 63.53% -0.534 -0.0338
The Kingdom of England 2 4 190 60.32% 39.34 1.402 49.47% -1.288 -0.3181
The Kingdom of England 3 6 130 70.54% 41.82 2.816 42.31% -1.487 0.0922
The Kingdom of England 4 7 120 69.17% 44.3 3.337 35.0% -1.951 -0.4501
The Kingdom of England 5 9 41 80.49% 55.29 9.649 43.9% -0.904 1.1658
The Kingdom of England 6 11 146 61.38% 62.03 11.737 42.47% -1.677 0.5748
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 360 52.5% 35.91 -0.666 60.28% -0.813 -0.288
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 205 64.88% 36.16 -0.472 49.76% -1.085 -0.1917
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 198 51.52% 42.48 3.049 46.46% -1.7 0.4295
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 128 63.49% 41.02 2.084 29.69% -2.429 -0.2427
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 117 46.15% 39.45 0.822 20.51% -3.231 -1.0882
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 46.59% 41.3 1.876 17.05% -3.23 -1.4066
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 212 50.94% 46.07 3.134 21.7% -3.486 -1.3702
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 456 46.33% 35.32 -0.906 73.68% -0.059 0.0296
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 312 44.55% 39.89 1.285 75.0% -0.048 -0.0288
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 256 56.08% 40.84 1.765 64.45% -0.385 -0.1619
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 197 62.94% 47.97 5.962 65.99% -0.223 0.0632
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 102 86.27% 37.42 1.098 35.29% -1.333 -0.5658
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 92 71.74% 43.39 3.677 41.3% -1.296 -0.1355
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 136 83.09% 41.01 2.489 31.62% -1.702 -0.569
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 89 42.35% 36.09 -0.849 75.28% -0.096 -0.2157
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 49 55.1% 42.57 1.945 65.31% -0.498 0.2202
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 33 57.58% 40.09 1.599 51.52% -1.153 -0.7105
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 16 68.75% 42.19 2.993 43.75% -1.167 0.0838
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 82.35% 40.0 2.449 35.29% -1.428 -0.3041
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 9 100.0% 30.67 -2.3 0.0% -1.679 0.3676
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 83.33% 38.5 1.767 8.33% -2.198 -0.2634

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5286 50.03 35.38 -1.599 66.69% -0.223 0.1039
1 Thematic 1605 54.93 43.09 1.483 51.4% -0.383 0.0902
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1205 48.66 39.24 0.618 72.7% 0.202 0.3991
2 Coastline 104 41.35 42.13 1.265 80.77% 0.32 0.4708
2 Fragment 31 54.84 35.23 -1.445 61.29% -0.175 0.2288
2 Heart 23 38.1 40.17 0.662 69.57% -0.096 0.2163
2 Opposite Shores 187 37.42 39.99 -0.109 84.49% 0.154 0.3772
2 Thematic 397 54.57 45.66 1.975 61.71% 0.056 0.0841
2 Top to Top 30 30.0 40.23 0.045 80.0% -0.098 0.0425
3 Coastline 1 100.0 86.0 22.757 100.0% 0.642 0.5954
3 Other 17 41.18 45.0 2.058 88.24% 0.448 0.8867
3 Round (Default) 541 39.33 40.14 0.436 79.11% 0.208 0.2657
3 Sunrise 7 42.86 41.71 1.033 71.43% -0.369 -0.566
3 Thematic 129 56.59 47.19 1.661 58.14% 0.16 -0.2012
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 15.964 100.0% 0.018 0.0817
4 Other 7 57.14 35.14 -2.568 57.14% -0.523 -0.3915
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0 55.0 3.374 100.0% 0.024 -0.7564
4 Thematic 72 45.71 47.28 -0.299 68.06% -0.275 -1.3349
4 Trapezoid (Default) 224 46.79 39.2 -0.233 69.64% -0.503 -0.4649
5 Other 1 100.0 61.0 13.32 100.0% 0.445 0.2464

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 371 32.82 -3.997 41.24% -2.243 -0.1721
Aid From Lesser Spirits 301 34.58 -3.214 47.84% -2.042 -0.12
All Things Weaken 114 31.39 -4.376 45.61% -2.167 -0.0135
Back Against the Wall 303 32.46 -4.242 41.25% -2.402 -0.3054
Disintegrating Ecosystem 378 29.12 -5.712 38.36% -2.36 -0.1339
Downward Spiral 879 30.31 -4.91 42.66% -2.217 -0.1984
Erosion of Will 356 30.58 -5.197 37.64% -2.444 -0.2339
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 40 44.38 1.867 82.5% -0.31 0.3838
Memory Fades to Dust 978 31.04 -4.622 41.92% -2.226 -0.0104
Power Corrodes the Spirit 107 31.49 -4.187 48.6% -1.961 0.056
Promising Farmlands 367 29.48 -5.77 35.42% -2.629 -0.416
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 26 42.81 1.348 84.62% -0.028 0.4018
Thriving Communities 115 30.64 -4.751 41.74% -2.163 -0.0671
Tipping Point 225 29.1 -5.87 32.0% -2.642 -0.4205
Unnatural Proliferation 133 31.89 -4.191 39.1% -2.283 -0.1964
Untended Land Crumbles 118 30.2 -5.002 42.37% -2.307 -0.211

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2092 48.75% 37.08 -0.412 70.51% 0.15 -0.9516
B 2050 45.16% 37.69 -0.208 71.27% 0.096 -1.1003
C 2224 44.19% 37.87 0.028 74.01% 0.315 -1.1131
D 2054 49.95% 36.86 -0.37 67.43% 0.12 -1.0706
E 417 49.61% 36.82 -0.883 70.74% -0.097 -1.3957
F 797 47.22% 38.75 0.097 72.4% 0.173 -1.0808
G 720 49.01% 38.89 0.107 71.39% 0.213 -1.0294
H 738 45.78% 39.09 0.053 72.36% 0.063 -1.1938
East 746 53.25% 46.71 2.41 58.71% 0.132 -0.8284
Northeast 712 52.69% 47.47 2.808 61.52% 0.332 -0.5689
Northwest 631 54.79% 44.96 1.573 56.58% 0.098 -0.8773
Southeast 150 54.0% 41.78 0.711 62.67% 0.058 -0.9459
Southwest 122 58.82% 33.31 -3.708 51.64% -0.593 -1.1924
West 706 55.56% 42.06 -0.038 48.44% -0.483 -1.1827

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 217 0.0% 36.35 -4.015 87.56% -1.494 0.5541
Not Using Events or Tokens 1943 54.23% 35.67 -0.865 63.51% -0.302 -0.0811
Skip Initial Invader Actions 496 14.07% 50.9 4.2 87.9% 0.509 -0.1959
Start of Game Growth 530 15.73% 50.55 4.051 87.55% 0.786 0.3345
Unlimited Undo 649 51.03% 38.62 -0.961 70.11% -0.166 -0.5828
Using Tokens but Not Events 809 30.43% 41.17 0.578 85.17% 0.48 0.4292

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3177 22.33 47.66%
II 3153 30.75 64.1%
III 2017 34.25 71.94%
IV 1523 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.421 Win Model: 0.02
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6904 51.14% 37.18 63.17%
2 1969 48.47% 40.71 71.81%
3 693 42.4% 41.69 75.61%
4 304 46.62% 41.38 69.08%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1178
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1025
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1524
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 935
Lose: Invader deck ran out 227
Lose: Adversary condition 724
Win: Sacrifice victory 263
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2024
Lose: Spirit destroyed 386

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)