Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 149 59.73% 35.07 -2.924 58.39% -0.705 -0.1533
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 51.67% 42.87 -1.609 66.67% 0.357 1.2352
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 53 69.81% 45.4 11.59 60.38% 0.195 1.3142
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 74.0% 42.34 0.0 44.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 73.33% 50.6 13.233 46.67% 0.176 1.7632
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 12 91.67% 48.75 0.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 98 36.08% 73.8 -4.702 39.8% -2.195 0.066
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 486 44.03% 36.07 0.676 72.84% 0.823 1.067
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 372 50.0% 38.41 -0.431 71.51% -0.181 -0.3075
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 279 61.65% 45.49 4.858 67.74% 0.677 0.7928
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 122 68.03% 47.9 -2.526 59.84% -1.068 -0.6935
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 135 59.26% 53.59 -7.105 60.0% -0.509 -0.0432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 55 70.91% 58.85 0.0 50.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 210 74.29% 70.15 5.671 40.0% -0.935 0.6402
The Kingdom of England 0 1 503 47.79% 34.05 1.445 65.41% 0.5 1.0161
The Kingdom of England 1 3 227 52.42% 42.0 3.867 64.76% -0.001 0.6087
The Kingdom of England 2 4 165 63.03% 38.7 4.875 47.88% 0.055 1.1824
The Kingdom of England 3 6 121 71.67% 38.65 -8.562 34.71% -0.622 1.1215
The Kingdom of England 4 7 108 69.44% 44.57 4.544 36.11% -0.271 1.3077
The Kingdom of England 5 9 48 85.42% 75.13 10.71 52.08% -0.292 1.4452
The Kingdom of England 6 11 421 69.05% 100.98 10.318 58.19% -1.876 0.423
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 340 50.88% 35.85 1.184 61.18% 0.238 1.1407
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 213 66.67% 36.15 3.243 46.95% -0.036 0.8542
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 175 50.86% 43.39 16.555 48.0% 0.083 2.4856
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 140 61.59% 40.91 -6.599 30.0% -2.204 0.1802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 89 48.31% 43.3 -2.718 29.21% -0.58 1.8954
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 84 51.19% 47.5 24.629 22.62% 0.221 2.2988
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 203 54.68% 65.95 9.372 35.96% -1.217 1.1501
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 20.0% 52.4 1.3 80.0% 0.074 -0.0501
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 6.432 100.0% 0.413 1.2574
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 50.0 3.58 100.0% 0.142 0.9704
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 74.0 14.108 100.0% 0.249 1.1192
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 35.33 -1.127 33.33% -0.423 0.812
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 19 63.16% 114.11 19.521 89.47% 0.433 2.1312
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 406 44.91% 35.25 -2.893 72.91% 0.321 0.4881
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 290 48.62% 39.93 -4.622 75.86% -0.251 -0.4746
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 250 58.23% 40.03 -4.679 62.8% -1.018 -0.5646
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 168 60.71% 48.11 -4.705 66.07% -0.588 -0.2782
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 117 85.47% 36.99 12.212 35.9% 0.079 1.0315
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 86 72.09% 43.1 -5.119 40.7% -0.883 0.0982
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 163 83.44% 44.48 -2.828 31.29% -1.533 -0.3411
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 132 46.88% 36.19 0.355 75.0% 0.539 0.4824
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 74 63.51% 39.7 -4.748 62.16% -0.383 0.3909
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 55 60.0% 38.13 0.0 49.09%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 34 79.41% 39.85 6.452 32.35% 0.092 1.4311
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 78.57% 44.32 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 31.1 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 376 64.89% 122.01 20.749 67.02% 0.625 2.6443

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5519 51.05 35.6 66.59% -0.215 0.8014 -0.622
1 Thematic 1511 54.83 42.64 52.22% -1.078 0.0946 -0.794
2 Archipelago 36 63.89 96.53 61.11% 0.586 1.5699 0.144
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1126 48.52 39.51 73.53% -0.587 0.1644 -0.13
2 Coastline 127 41.73 47.46 84.25% 0.287 0.8894 0.747
2 Fragment 27 70.37 34.19 55.56% -0.408
2 Heart 18 25.0 43.28 88.89% 0.112 0.6502 -0.288
2 Opposite Shores 182 37.65 39.97 85.71% -0.943 0.0496 0.563
2 Thematic 600 62.21 79.67 65.83% 0.48 1.1787 0.021
2 Top to Top 26 30.77 42.46 84.62% 0.342 0.8527 0.352
3 Archipelago 5 100.0 108.6 60.0% 0.359
3 Coastline 2 100.0 98.5 100.0% 0.673
3 Other 15 46.67 43.07 86.67% -0.094
3 Round (Default) 512 39.17 41.13 79.1% 0.571 1.1659 0.145
3 Sunrise 9 33.33 41.78 77.78% 0.418 0.4547 0.362
3 Thematic 172 52.91 66.61 61.63% -0.201 -0.2385 -0.768
4 Archipelago 1 100.0 155.0 100.0% 0.242 -0.4691 0.305
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.146
4 Other 2 50.0 37.0 100.0% 0.157 -0.0971
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 115 28.32 101.56 86.09% 0.597 1.1263 0.902
4 Trapezoid (Default) 179 49.43 38.93 70.95% 0.109 0.0814 0.113
5 Other 4 100.0 57.75 50.0% -0.277 -0.1085 -0.309
5 Thematic 7 57.14 94.57 42.86% -0.255
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 8 25.0 59.63 62.5% -0.306 -0.5846 -0.245
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 0.0 34.33 100.0% 0.15 0.0563
7 Archipelago 4 75.0 99.0 50.0% -0.663 -1.2407 -0.902

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 361 35.56 43.21% -1.214 0.6892 -0.868
Aid From Lesser Spirits 286 36.79 47.55% -1.768 -0.0381 -0.907
All Things Weaken 196 41.47 47.96% -0.328 1.6577 -0.477
Back Against the Wall 265 32.33 40.38% 0.134 1.9507 -1.374
Disintegrating Ecosystem 349 30.37 36.39% -1.007 1.0432 -1.138
Downward Spiral 851 32.49 41.6% -1.948 0.0454 -0.981
Erosion of Will 345 31.61 37.1% -1.686 0.3974 -1.08
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 84 62.52 84.52% 0.525 0.9664 0.659
Memory Fades to Dust 959 33.8 44.11% -1.23 0.8546 -0.806
Power Corrodes the Spirit 194 41.38 47.94% -0.836 1.1023 -0.584
Promising Farmlands 367 31.79 35.69% -1.443 0.603 -1.09
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 52 61.75 84.62% 0.271 0.6955 0.201
Thriving Communities 200 43.98 44.0% -0.816 1.1675 -0.68
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.575
Unnatural Proliferation 236 43.95 45.76% -0.457 1.5071 -0.648
Untended Land Crumbles 212 41.45 44.81% -0.841 1.1519 -0.573

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1893 50.19% 38.6 69.52% 0.065 0.8625 -0.042
B 1827 46.63% 39.03 73.13% 0.03 0.7738 0.034
C 1934 45.58% 38.76 73.99% -0.378 0.1901 -0.153
D 1696 49.64% 37.96 68.28% -0.59 0.206 -0.089
E 656 49.11% 37.94 70.27% 0.094 0.7409 -0.627
F 1056 47.8% 38.61 72.35% 0.061 0.7856 -0.116
G 982 49.17% 38.7 71.18% -0.389 0.3431 -0.032
H 1002 48.32% 38.74 70.06% 0.358 1.0707 -0.442
East 1566 54.24% 63.56 62.58% 0.138 0.9069 0.198
Northeast 838 50.84% 66.27 64.8% 0.014 0.8742 0.178
Northwest 722 52.16% 63.86 63.43% 0.174 1.2502 -0.009
Southeast 230 55.65% 51.63 60.87% -0.068 0.6378 -0.586
Southwest 180 63.84% 40.88 48.89% -0.162 0.9632 -0.342
West 1448 56.35% 61.76 58.01% -0.262 0.6914 -0.096

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 237 0.0% 36.18 88.61% -1.171 0.9582 -0.229
Not Using Events or Tokens 1901 53.35% 36.66 64.44% 0.026 0.2013 -0.073
Skip Initial Invader Actions 521 17.58% 50.11 87.14% -0.207 -0.3497 -0.043
Start of Game Growth 569 20.27% 49.67 86.99% 0.205 -0.5552 0.726
Unlimited Undo 696 53.45% 39.24 71.26% 0.212 -0.392 -0.319
Using Tokens but Not Events 1106 38.84% 54.53 82.82% 0.395 0.2383 0.377

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3248 22.56 49.69%
II 3114 30.98 63.42%
III 2022 34.53 68.74%
IV 1830 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.198 Win Model: 0.31
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7407 53.05% 40.32 63.16%
2 1823 46.32% 44.04 75.86%
3 724 40.28% 51.8 77.9%
4 243 49.58% 43.24 71.19%
5 4 50.0% 77.5 25.0%
6 13 30.77% 56.46 76.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1594
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1378
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1964
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1449
Lose: Invader deck ran out 249
Lose: Adversary condition 739
Win: Sacrifice victory 424
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2045
Lose: Spirit destroyed 372

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)