Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 5 20.0% 10.8 -3.912 20.0% -0.379 -0.4014
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 33.33% 18.33 -10.12 33.33% -0.624 -0.9877
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 2 50.0% 0.0 -9.7 0.0% -0.47 -0.5357
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 100.0% 61.5 17.67 100.0% 0.699 0.5769
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 2 50.0% 39.0 5.47 50.0% -0.07 0.3426
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 40 37.5% 78.22 8.892 55.0% -0.326 1.3516
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 238 52.94% 29.33 -4.001 49.58% -0.374 0.0193
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 160 46.88% 38.32 -4.821 59.38% -0.808 -0.4554
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 75 62.67% 37.4 0.0 49.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 69 65.22% 37.91 -4.087 40.58% -0.789 0.1779
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 33 51.52% 42.45 -11.143 45.45% -0.475 1.0829
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 68.18% 38.91 0.0 18.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 231 24.35% 76.33 4.61 42.86% -0.913 1.0376
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 729 40.58% 30.87 -3.91 61.73% -0.569 -0.3884
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 595 43.58% 32.26 -0.439 59.33% -0.458 -0.4614
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 456 52.63% 39.67 1.001 60.53% -0.149 -0.0795
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 190 62.11% 40.15 -1.567 48.95% -0.594 -0.3149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 184 49.46% 46.93 3.608 54.35% 0.308 0.6474
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 100 53.0% 42.04 -5.281 35.0% -0.658 -0.2632
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 446 51.12% 68.01 -0.528 39.69% -0.985 0.3086
The Kingdom of England 0 1 742 43.34% 29.22 -4.616 55.93% -0.603 -0.29
The Kingdom of England 1 3 377 42.29% 32.1 2.032 50.13% 0.256 0.6094
The Kingdom of England 2 4 301 56.33% 31.31 -6.942 37.87% -1.36 -0.7646
The Kingdom of England 3 6 200 66.33% 33.18 3.43 28.5% -0.562 0.5401
The Kingdom of England 4 7 173 58.96% 34.88 -12.445 26.59% -0.467 0.5659
The Kingdom of England 5 9 102 63.73% 64.9 -2.495 42.16% -0.392 1.3934
The Kingdom of England 6 11 941 58.55% 95.7 8.791 55.69% -0.252 1.6332
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 477 44.86% 31.42 -1.36 54.3% -0.28 0.18
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 270 62.59% 32.97 -8.944 43.7% -1.21 -0.421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 231 46.75% 40.16 -13.175 44.59% -0.689 0.5558
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 188 58.06% 37.29 -5.78 29.26% -0.443 0.8884
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 109 49.54% 40.64 -15.802 25.69% -0.547 0.7633
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 97 46.39% 46.3 -8.777 24.74% -0.203 0.8444
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 413 40.53% 75.62 6.909 43.1% -0.743 0.7118
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 125 22.4% 23.28 -5.048 47.2% -0.2 0.0643
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 32 25.0% 27.78 -0.27 43.75% 0.136 0.4591
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 39 51.28% 22.31 -6.952 30.77% -0.533 -0.2355
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 39 20.51% 27.41 5.763 28.21% -0.439 -0.2688
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 30 46.67% 25.63 0.611 30.0% -0.542 0.1204
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 12 25.0% 21.08 0.0 8.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 202 46.04% 77.57 0.062 47.52% -0.562 0.4886
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 643 40.53% 28.9 -3.648 59.25% -0.349 -0.0901
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 511 46.77% 32.7 -0.448 60.86% -0.131 -0.0113
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 388 50.78% 33.58 1.626 53.35% 0.393 0.659
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 307 58.96% 35.05 1.859 44.95% 0.224 0.5494
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 164 70.73% 31.64 0.246 31.71% -0.135 0.614
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 144 63.19% 32.59 -5.75 29.17% -1.228 -0.0752
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 431 48.26% 29.28 -2.722 19.72% -1.276 -0.2311
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 260 33.59% 29.68 -7.424 60.77% -1.23 -1.0205
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 125 55.2% 31.22 -2.578 46.4% -1.011 -0.3139
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 107 50.47% 29.21 -0.355 39.25% 0.027 0.264
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 57 64.91% 29.14 -10.047 22.81% -0.529 0.4228
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 62 53.23% 27.55 -14.027 27.42% -0.476 0.7448
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 87.5% 31.94 0.0 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1133 46.64% 112.66 12.347 64.52% -0.366 1.2365

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9033 44.85 30.79 58.73% -0.166 0.0942 -0.658
1 Thematic 2025 50.79 37.73 47.16% -0.677 -0.1149 -0.705
2 Archipelago 50 62.0 85.3 58.0% -0.365 0.2848 0.587
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1736 43.14 35.3 65.73% 0.261 0.2909 0.114
2 Coastline 211 38.86 40.49 73.46% 0.489 0.2309 0.947
2 Fragment 35 74.29 34.06 54.29% -0.675
2 Heart 23 28.57 40.17 82.61% 0.489 -0.0374 0.079
2 Opposite Shores 348 36.01 34.71 70.4% -0.776 -0.8215 -0.015
2 Thematic 1240 55.38 77.44 57.74% -0.557 -0.191 -0.046
2 Top to Top 45 26.67 39.24 75.56% 0.33 0.0466 0.086
3 Archipelago 57 64.91 112.95 70.18% 0.276 -0.6378 0.637
3 Coastline 4 66.67 57.25 75.0% 0.542 -0.5013 0.74
3 Other 26 30.77 41.04 65.38% -0.31
3 Round (Default) 802 35.51 34.44 65.34% 0.257 0.0581 0.249
3 Sunrise 11 45.45 42.91 81.82% 0.632
3 Thematic 547 22.53 92.81 66.91% 0.812 0.5754 -0.301
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 99.6 80.0% 0.934
4 Leaf 3 0.0 55.67 100.0% 0.151
4 Other 7 50.0 22.71 57.14%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 231 20.96 88.32 70.13% -0.206 -0.4448 0.299
4 Trapezoid (Default) 358 36.08 27.8 50.56% -0.87 -1.2421 -0.134
5 Other 21 33.33 22.95 33.33% -0.217 -0.971 -0.787
5 Thematic 15 46.67 87.87 53.33% 0.186
6 Other 3 66.67 23.33 66.67% -0.168
6 Star 8 50.0 9.88 0.0% -0.79
6 Thematic 20 35.0 33.9 45.0% -0.578
6 Two Centers (Default) 14 14.29 14.21 35.71% 0.089 0.2422 -0.504
7 Archipelago 6 66.67 99.5 50.0% 0.075
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.051

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 464 34.43 42.03% -0.494 -0.4183 -0.219
Aid From Lesser Spirits 345 38.09 49.57% 0.462 0.3812 -0.081
All Things Weaken 276 45.25 48.19% 0.073 0.3176 0.25
Attenuated Essence 41 41.05 43.9% 0.968 0.9253 0.171
Back Against the Wall 342 32.43 41.52% 0.316 0.3385 -0.478
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 42 42.83 42.86% 0.264 0.417 0.789
Burn Brightest Before the End 35 45.63 48.57% 0.337 0.3274 0.752
Disintegrating Ecosystem 460 30.23 34.57% -0.673 -0.4897 -0.577
Downward Spiral 1319 31.49 38.89% -0.073 -0.0039 0.061
Erosion of Will 447 31.39 34.45% -0.3 -0.1594 -0.612
Intensifying Exploitation 58 49.6 48.28% 0.864 0.9598 0.336
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 116 67.12 81.9% 0.389 -0.2381 1.25
Memory Fades to Dust 1383 32.14 39.99% -0.663 -0.456 0.124
Power Corrodes the Spirit 293 44.72 46.42% -0.321 -0.1674 0.05
Promising Farmlands 467 33.08 36.4% 0.045 0.2448 -0.344
Shattered Fragments of Power 37 35.43 51.35% -0.006 -0.0097 0.063
Slow Dissolution of Will 44 41.27 45.45% -0.27 0.0395 -0.176
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 86 74.64 84.88% 0.652 -0.0756 1.032
The Border of Life and Death 19 73.95 84.21% 0.254 -0.2276 1.029
Thriving Communities 285 46.47 46.67% 0.471 0.6279 0.14
Thriving Crops 30 67.63 73.33% 0.698 0.402 0.354
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.064
Unnatural Proliferation 338 45.03 46.45% 0.426 0.5286 0.026
Untended Land Crumbles 309 42.48 43.37% 0.054 0.2196 -0.131

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3467 41.19% 30.93 55.64% -0.142 0.8323 -0.535
B 3067 41.29% 33.22 61.13% -0.021 0.8664 -0.246
C 3281 40.89% 33.06 61.81% 0.243 0.9316 -0.407
D 2791 43.33% 32.42 58.58% 0.1 0.9966 -0.273
E 1195 41.54% 35.04 64.69% -0.315 0.4122 -0.624
F 1620 43.49% 36.15 66.36% -0.164 0.6604 -0.171
G 1509 45.8% 35.72 63.29% -0.257 0.5121 -0.241
H 1505 43.61% 36.0 63.39% 0.435 1.2186 -0.489
East 2975 44.92% 68.35 58.05% 0.318 1.1017 -0.039
Northeast 1654 36.1% 72.57 61.55% -0.4 0.4091 0.06
Northwest 1080 43.59% 59.62 56.76% 0.69 1.4229 -0.178
Southeast 384 47.4% 48.52 52.86% -0.338 0.5543 -0.243
Southwest 301 49.33% 32.55 40.53% -0.556 0.6991 -0.835
West 2614 45.22% 67.1 54.93% 0.109 1.0969 -0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 299 0.0% 32.43 76.59% 0.064 0.7233 -0.308
Not Using Events or Tokens 3471 47.12% 28.27 49.7% -0.859 -0.4329 -0.521
Skip Initial Invader Actions 643 24.49% 46.7 77.76% -0.318 -1.0999 0.248
Start of Game Growth 690 19.38% 46.77 81.45% 0.259 -0.156 0.594
Unlimited Undo 1074 44.66% 33.54 58.29% 0.12 0.0594 -0.134
Using Tokens but Not Events 2135 32.89% 53.53 75.32% 0.553 0.5018 0.095

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6702 13.78 36.03%
II 4387 30.2 60.77%
III 2828 34.83 67.72%
IV 2973 38.63 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.229
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 11941 47.32% 36.25 56.15%
2 3231 38.18% 48.5 68.43%
3 1168 34.51% 47.33 66.7%
4 477 36.11% 31.75 52.2%
5 27 29.63% 25.37 29.63%
6 46 36.96% 28.91 36.96%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2391
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1894
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2652
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2131
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2397
Lose: Invader deck ran out 313
Lose: Adversary condition 978
Win: Sacrifice victory 901
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2723
Lose: Spirit destroyed 510

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-12 04:24:14 (Pacific Time)