Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 107 54.21% 36.21 -0.543 63.55% -0.629 -0.3508
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 99 46.46% 44.45 2.479 70.71% -0.438 -0.0446
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 70.73% 44.54 4.863 60.98% -0.372 0.5063
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 41 70.73% 43.56 3.236 46.34% -1.166 0.0853
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 76.92% 49.08 6.452 46.15% -1.083 0.4387
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 36.57 1.702 14.29% -0.805 1.1717
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 35.71% 70.4 13.015 66.67% -1.086 0.9639
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 565 44.33% 35.75 -0.646 72.21% -0.214 -0.1735
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 395 48.6% 38.18 0.752 70.38% -0.333 -0.3623
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 279 58.48% 45.27 4.477 67.03% -0.322 -0.3168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 143 65.73% 49.99 6.491 63.64% -0.442 -0.1536
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 133 59.4% 54.64 8.616 63.16% -0.558 -0.1902
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 57 75.44% 55.91 9.643 50.88% -0.642 0.1872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 158 90.51% 44.59 4.34 24.05% -1.892 -0.6506
The Kingdom of England 0 1 600 48.66% 33.65 -1.465 64.0% -0.599 -0.2667
The Kingdom of England 1 3 273 54.21% 41.96 2.323 64.1% -0.519 -0.015
The Kingdom of England 2 4 198 60.91% 39.01 1.281 48.48% -1.355 -0.3869
The Kingdom of England 3 6 132 70.23% 42.3 3.029 43.18% -1.486 0.0918
The Kingdom of England 4 7 122 68.03% 44.54 3.426 35.25% -1.994 -0.4961
The Kingdom of England 5 9 41 80.49% 55.29 9.658 43.9% -0.93 1.1365
The Kingdom of England 6 11 154 60.78% 62.02 11.844 42.86% -1.691 0.5642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 377 51.46% 36.03 -0.582 61.01% -0.807 -0.2923
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 218 66.06% 35.59 -0.65 48.17% -1.154 -0.2578
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 200 51.5% 42.52 3.083 46.5% -1.721 0.4156
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 132 63.08% 40.9 2.071 29.55% -2.482 -0.2967
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 117 46.15% 39.45 0.839 20.51% -3.267 -1.1205
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 46.59% 41.3 1.895 17.05% -3.267 -1.4471
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 213 50.7% 46.27 3.279 22.07% -3.5 -1.3931
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 466 46.62% 35.11 -0.973 73.18% -0.107 -0.0221
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 330 45.76% 39.62 1.205 74.55% -0.096 -0.0755
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 266 56.23% 40.7 1.726 63.91% -0.426 -0.1946
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 197 62.94% 47.97 5.985 65.99% -0.239 0.047
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 104 85.58% 37.56 1.178 35.58% -1.368 -0.5907
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 94 71.28% 43.47 3.751 41.49% -1.323 -0.1655
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 136 83.09% 41.01 2.53 31.62% -1.714 -0.5821
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 100 41.67% 36.31 -0.719 77.0% -0.054 -0.16
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 56 57.14% 41.38 1.585 64.29% -0.526 0.2175
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 37 56.76% 39.68 1.61 51.35% -1.162 -0.7307
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 70.59% 43.76 3.721 47.06% -1.011 0.2385
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 18 77.78% 41.89 3.326 38.89% -1.377 -0.2507
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 31.1 -1.967 0.0% -1.86 0.1586
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 83.33% 38.5 1.83 8.33% -2.196 -0.2913

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5526 49.73 35.29 -1.618 66.72% -0.236 0.0969
1 Thematic 1647 54.74 43.01 1.487 51.49% -0.373 0.1249
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1257 48.87 39.33 0.683 72.79% 0.195 0.3955
2 Coastline 112 40.18 41.76 1.102 81.25% 0.284 0.4389
2 Fragment 31 54.84 35.23 -1.46 61.29% -0.196 0.1996
2 Heart 24 40.91 40.13 0.669 70.83% -0.037 0.2857
2 Opposite Shores 201 36.16 39.92 -0.121 84.58% 0.14 0.3693
2 Thematic 408 54.07 45.71 2.044 62.01% 0.074 0.135
2 Top to Top 31 29.03 40.29 -0.007 80.65% -0.12 0.0118
3 Coastline 1 100.0 86.0 22.627 100.0% 0.624 0.5854
3 Other 19 47.37 44.68 2.111 89.47% 0.544 0.9641
3 Round (Default) 561 38.82 40.16 0.431 79.32% 0.178 0.2342
3 Sunrise 7 42.86 41.71 1.057 71.43% -0.371 -0.5649
3 Thematic 130 56.92 46.97 1.562 57.69% 0.148 -0.1816
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 15.843 100.0% 0.016 0.0621
4 Other 7 57.14 35.14 -2.617 57.14% -0.553 -0.4406
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0 55.0 3.334 100.0% 0.022 -0.7604
4 Thematic 72 45.71 47.28 -0.326 68.06% -0.28 -1.3038
4 Trapezoid (Default) 231 48.0 39.13 -0.188 70.13% -0.473 -0.4379
5 Other 1 100.0 61.0 13.363 100.0% 0.445 0.1902

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 378 32.74 -3.995 41.27% -2.256 -0.1827
Aid From Lesser Spirits 312 34.23 -3.364 46.79% -2.11 -0.1908
All Things Weaken 122 31.2 -4.408 45.08% -2.202 -0.0431
Back Against the Wall 316 32.01 -4.439 40.82% -2.455 -0.361
Disintegrating Ecosystem 387 29.16 -5.699 39.02% -2.386 -0.1618
Downward Spiral 903 30.17 -4.94 42.41% -2.242 -0.2205
Erosion of Will 369 30.52 -5.169 38.21% -2.446 -0.2372
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 43.33 1.566 82.61% -0.336 0.3564
Memory Fades to Dust 1010 31.08 -4.573 42.18% -2.228 -0.0096
Power Corrodes the Spirit 117 30.96 -4.432 47.01% -2.089 -0.0684
Promising Farmlands 377 29.23 -5.855 35.01% -2.671 -0.4567
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 29 42.76 1.489 86.21% 0.085 0.4957
Thriving Communities 127 30.43 -4.813 41.73% -2.179 -0.0859
Tipping Point 225 29.1 -5.868 32.0% -2.665 -0.4399
Unnatural Proliferation 141 31.44 -4.304 38.3% -2.32 -0.2305
Untended Land Crumbles 125 29.76 -5.196 40.8% -2.373 -0.2672

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2182 48.73% 37.08 -0.399 70.67% 0.157 -0.9557
B 2126 45.34% 37.6 -0.197 71.26% 0.114 -1.0936
C 2299 44.09% 37.86 0.036 74.21% 0.321 -1.1181
D 2132 49.5% 36.9 -0.33 67.82% 0.128 -1.0738
E 457 48.59% 36.71 -0.885 71.12% -0.101 -1.4136
F 838 47.11% 38.71 0.123 72.43% 0.188 -1.0781
G 759 49.26% 38.66 0.089 71.01% 0.22 -1.0371
H 785 45.58% 38.96 0.045 72.61% 0.066 -1.2003
East 761 53.12% 46.71 2.445 58.87% 0.137 -0.8441
Northeast 725 53.13% 47.27 2.725 60.97% 0.3 -0.6313
Northwest 644 54.3% 45.03 1.662 57.14% 0.127 -0.8721
Southeast 162 51.85% 41.62 0.675 62.35% 0.015 -1.0108
Southwest 126 58.54% 33.02 -3.74 50.79% -0.589 -1.209
West 716 55.48% 42.04 -0.01 48.6% -0.486 -1.2111

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 223 0.0% 36.17 -4.049 87.44% -1.548 0.5061
Not Using Events or Tokens 2024 53.83% 35.64 -0.869 63.54% -0.317 -0.0993
Skip Initial Invader Actions 506 13.86% 50.75 4.2 88.14% 0.506 -0.188
Start of Game Growth 542 15.93% 50.36 4.038 87.82% 0.835 0.3718
Unlimited Undo 669 50.6% 38.59 -0.939 70.4% -0.166 -0.5869
Using Tokens but Not Events 861 29.79% 40.99 0.574 85.48% 0.476 0.4233

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3307 22.34 48.02%
II 3258 30.81 63.9%
III 2103 34.31 72.09%
IV 1601 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.434 Win Model: 0.017
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7186 50.85% 37.07 63.26%
2 2056 48.26% 40.74 72.08%
3 716 42.16% 41.63 75.84%
4 311 47.52% 41.28 69.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1251
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1089
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1584
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1007
Lose: Invader deck ran out 238
Lose: Adversary condition 743
Win: Sacrifice victory 272
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2103
Lose: Spirit destroyed 398

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)