Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Rituals of Terror

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Difficulty	Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
3	10702	49.89%	38.18	66.03%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	1495	36.55%	41.13	1.117	77.53%	0.358	0.4683
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	542	75.93%	30.51	-3.537	41.33%	-0.798	-0.5965
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	394	56.17%	38.2	-0.465	63.96%	0.016	-0.094
Eyes Watch From the Trees	742	38.4%	40.86	1.084	78.3%	0.53	0.1313
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	492	37.21%	42.5	1.432	77.85%	0.44	0.1431
Fractured Days Split the Sky	58	53.45%	42.24	1.424	70.69%	0.118	0.4742
Heart of the Wildfire	502	75.05%	31.29	-2.958	47.21%	-0.239	0.0858
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	983	39.42%	44.5	2.491	79.04%	0.903	0.5675
Lightning's Swift Strike	955	58.16%	36.5	-0.928	61.26%	0.04	0.2719
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	141	54.17%	36.77	-0.542	73.76%	0.235	-0.0521

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	111	54.05%	36.26	-0.474	63.96%	-0.62	-0.336
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	108	50.0%	42.84	1.899	66.67%	-0.623	-0.2128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	41	70.73%	44.54	4.852	60.98%	-0.391	0.493
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	44	70.45%	44.32	3.46	47.73%	-1.158	0.0891
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	13	76.92%	49.08	6.393	46.15%	-1.103	0.3997
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	7	100.0%	36.57	1.708	14.29%	-0.841	1.1124
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	15	35.71%	70.4	13.168	66.67%	-1.036	1.0096
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	582	44.58%	35.69	-0.656	71.99%	-0.249	-0.207
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	414	49.03%	38.04	0.755	70.05%	-0.36	-0.3772
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	295	59.39%	45.16	4.449	66.78%	-0.334	-0.3195

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	5754	49.85	35.23	-1.603	66.65%	-0.12	0.045
1	Thematic	1724	55.55	42.56	1.347	51.1%	-0.288	0.0657
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	1301	48.76	39.28	0.665	73.25%	0.251	0.2978
2	Coastline	125	43.2	41.78	1.091	78.4%	0.22	0.2198
2	Fragment	32	56.25	34.63	-1.749	59.38%	-0.29	-0.0433
2	Heart	24	40.91	40.13	0.663	70.83%	0.022	0.1522
2	Opposite Shores	208	35.87	40.16	0.01	84.62%	0.203	0.2907
2	Thematic	425	54.74	45.75	2.117	62.59%	0.104	0.0556
2	Top to Top	34	35.29	41.41	0.592	79.41%	0.191	0.1473
3	Archipelago	1	100.0	36.0	-0.666	0.0%	-0.086	0.8264

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	389	32.75	-3.962	41.65%	-2.268	-0.195
Aid From Lesser Spirits	319	34.2	-3.326	46.71%	-2.125	-0.2077
All Things Weaken	135	31.04	-4.458	43.7%	-2.269	-0.0976
Back Against the Wall	325	32.04	-4.409	41.23%	-2.459	-0.3677
Disintegrating Ecosystem	404	28.92	-5.757	38.12%	-2.44	-0.2141
Downward Spiral	959	30.18	-4.957	42.02%	-2.259	-0.2359
Erosion of Will	379	30.48	-5.162	37.99%	-2.471	-0.2619
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	50	43.2	1.658	82.0%	-0.361	0.3287
Memory Fades to Dust	1061	31.24	-4.488	42.04%	-2.24	-0.0228
Power Corrodes the Spirit	128	30.77	-4.493	46.09%	-2.16	-0.1366
Promising Farmlands	387	29.31	-5.767	35.4%	-2.662	-0.4491
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	32	42.56	1.317	84.38%	-0.082	0.3351
Thriving Communities	135	30.96	-4.654	42.22%	-2.186	-0.0918
Tipping Point	225	29.1	-5.831	32.0%	-2.673	-0.4462
Unnatural Proliferation	155	31.75	-4.06	40.0%	-2.281	-0.1946
Untended Land Crumbles	142	30.04	-4.985	42.25%	-2.324	-0.2204

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	2279	49.33%	37.14	-0.362	70.21%	-0.006	-0.718
B	2207	45.62%	37.58	-0.197	71.18%	-0.03	-0.8385
C	2395	44.27%	37.95	0.101	74.15%	0.174	-0.8663
D	2218	49.77%	36.94	-0.295	67.76%	-0.014	-0.8155
E	497	49.25%	36.92	-0.761	70.62%	-0.243	-1.1606
East	785	53.28%	46.64	2.46	59.11%	-0.004	-0.6045
F	875	46.47%	38.75	0.139	72.8%	0.038	-0.8263
G	786	48.96%	38.9	0.21	71.63%	0.111	-0.7459
H	821	45.66%	38.94	0.051	72.96%	-0.077	-0.9432
Northeast	763	53.76%	47.19	2.705	61.07%	0.159	-0.3889
Northwest	661	54.73%	44.91	1.653	57.03%	-0.008	-0.6268
Southeast	171	52.63%	41.39	0.709	63.16%	-0.021	-0.6746
Southwest	139	61.76%	31.8	-4.111	48.2%	-0.808	-1.0332
West	740	55.57%	41.9	0.007	48.92%	-0.615	-0.9656

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	229	0.0%	35.98	-4.031	86.9%	-1.551	0.505
Not Using Events or Tokens	2140	54.47%	35.62	-0.906	63.04%	-0.339	-0.1227
Skip Initial Invader Actions	526	16.38%	50.6	4.151	86.5%	0.349	-0.3349
Start of Game Growth	564	18.59%	50.24	4.019	86.35%	0.887	0.4171
Unlimited Undo	684	51.08%	38.54	-0.918	70.18%	-0.139	-0.5606
Using Tokens but Not Events	935	30.08%	40.44	0.374	84.81%	0.417	0.3658

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	3474	22.36	48.27%
II	3365	30.85	63.6%
III	2192	34.37	71.99%
IV	1671	37.54	100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.463 Win Model: 0.216

Num.	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
1	7502	51.19%	36.94	63.06%
2	2133	48.4%	40.73	72.43%
3	737	42.18%	41.93	76.12%
4	330	47.52%	41.44	69.39%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	768
Lose: Blight pool ran out	2207
Lose: Invader deck ran out	251
Lose: Spirit destroyed	410
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	1340
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	1642
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	1151
Win: Sacrifice victory	279
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	1070

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-06 02:37:51 (Pacific Time)