Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 111 54.05% 36.26 -0.471 63.96% -0.62 -0.3312
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 109 49.54% 42.97 1.966 66.97% -0.618 -0.2044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 70.73% 44.54 4.847 60.98% -0.39 0.4932
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 44 70.45% 44.32 3.464 47.73% -1.155 0.0874
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 76.92% 49.08 6.402 46.15% -1.105 0.392
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 36.57 1.719 14.29% -0.834 1.1049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 35.71% 70.4 13.157 66.67% -1.047 0.9962
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 585 44.52% 35.7 -0.649 72.14% -0.242 -0.2007
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 417 48.92% 38.02 0.755 70.02% -0.361 -0.3791
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 295 59.39% 45.16 4.446 66.78% -0.333 -0.3194
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 148 65.54% 50.22 6.568 64.19% -0.45 -0.1662
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 143 60.84% 54.42 8.621 62.94% -0.54 -0.1803
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 61 75.41% 54.33 8.897 47.54% -0.818 0.0071
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 185 91.35% 43.46 3.822 22.16% -2.044 -0.8043
The Kingdom of England 0 1 616 49.84% 33.41 -1.517 63.31% -0.616 -0.2863
The Kingdom of England 1 3 286 54.2% 41.71 2.278 63.99% -0.555 -0.0385
The Kingdom of England 2 4 206 61.95% 38.86 1.259 48.06% -1.371 -0.3972
The Kingdom of England 3 6 138 71.53% 41.76 2.886 42.03% -1.515 0.0647
The Kingdom of England 4 7 122 68.03% 44.54 3.447 35.25% -2.015 -0.5207
The Kingdom of England 5 9 47 80.85% 54.21 8.526 40.43% -1.221 0.8496
The Kingdom of England 6 11 165 62.2% 62.26 12.019 43.03% -1.659 0.5844
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 392 50.77% 36.14 -0.549 61.48% -0.82 -0.3085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 224 66.52% 35.68 -0.57 48.66% -1.127 -0.2243
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 203 51.72% 42.42 3.059 46.31% -1.756 0.3855
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 137 62.96% 41.32 2.288 30.66% -2.455 -0.2566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 118 46.61% 39.77 1.019 21.19% -3.254 -1.0935
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 90 46.67% 41.72 2.106 17.78% -3.276 -1.4586
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 217 51.15% 46.82 3.603 23.04% -3.427 -1.336
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 486 47.18% 35.05 -0.974 72.63% -0.139 -0.0508
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 349 46.99% 39.37 1.14 74.21% -0.104 -0.0689
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 283 57.45% 40.04 1.566 62.54% -0.463 -0.226
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 200 63.0% 47.76 5.891 65.5% -0.28 0.0102
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 104 85.58% 37.56 1.174 35.58% -1.389 -0.6084
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 98 71.43% 43.15 3.656 40.82% -1.37 -0.2013
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 140 83.57% 40.98 2.464 31.43% -1.727 -0.6049
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 107 41.75% 36.81 -0.524 77.57% -0.061 -0.1495
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 64 59.38% 40.77 1.478 64.06% -0.556 0.2229
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 44 61.36% 38.64 1.402 50.0% -1.13 -0.7183
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 18 72.22% 42.56 3.174 44.44% -1.071 0.1732
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 22 77.27% 45.59 5.236 45.45% -1.142 -0.0345
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 31.1 -1.95 0.0% -1.866 0.1182
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14 85.71% 44.0 4.623 14.29% -2.036 -0.164

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5817 49.96 35.24 -1.602 66.53% -0.058 0.028
1 Thematic 1729 55.56 42.55 1.357 51.13% -0.223 0.054
2 Archipelago 4 75.0 39.5 -0.647 25.0% -0.195 -0.1878
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1315 48.69 39.29 0.669 73.38% 0.282 0.3074
2 Coastline 128 42.19 41.66 0.992 78.91% 0.255 0.23
2 Fragment 32 56.25 34.63 -1.766 59.38% -0.275 -0.0527
2 Heart 24 40.91 40.13 0.649 70.83% 0.043 0.1426
2 Opposite Shores 208 35.87 40.16 0.012 84.62% 0.229 0.2947
2 Thematic 426 54.85 45.7 2.104 62.44% 0.128 0.0608
2 Top to Top 34 35.29 41.41 0.586 79.41% 0.21 0.1412
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 36.0 -0.815 0.0% -0.086 0.718
3 Coastline 2 100.0 98.5 28.314 100.0% 1.021 0.8707
3 Other 19 47.37 44.68 2.097 89.47% 0.551 0.7232
3 Round (Default) 586 39.04 40.56 0.522 79.35% 0.126 0.0877
3 Sunrise 7 42.86 41.71 0.977 71.43% -0.388 -0.6486
3 Thematic 132 56.82 47.16 1.654 58.33% 0.074 -0.292
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 15.761 100.0% 0.013 0.0848
4 Other 7 57.14 35.14 -2.765 57.14% -0.607 -0.6764
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0 55.0 3.247 100.0% 0.018 -0.7838
4 Thematic 74 44.44 47.76 -0.231 68.92% -0.506 -1.5029
4 Trapezoid (Default) 249 47.74 39.14 -0.166 70.28% -0.611 -0.6027
5 Other 3 100.0 67.0 12.474 66.67% 0.036 -0.4244

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 396 32.8 -3.95 41.41% -2.273 -0.2039
Aid From Lesser Spirits 321 34.22 -3.319 46.73% -2.126 -0.2136
All Things Weaken 136 31.12 -4.449 43.38% -2.279 -0.1193
Back Against the Wall 328 32.04 -4.405 40.85% -2.469 -0.3821
Disintegrating Ecosystem 410 29.03 -5.712 37.8% -2.444 -0.2216
Downward Spiral 969 30.15 -4.96 41.9% -2.269 -0.247
Erosion of Will 382 30.47 -5.162 37.96% -2.474 -0.2661
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 51 42.98 1.521 82.35% -0.36 0.3184
Memory Fades to Dust 1073 31.25 -4.457 42.12% -2.242 -0.0267
Power Corrodes the Spirit 128 30.77 -4.509 46.09% -2.172 -0.1507
Promising Farmlands 390 29.26 -5.783 35.13% -2.675 -0.4669
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 42.56 1.318 84.38% -0.088 0.3235
Thriving Communities 136 31.09 -4.589 42.65% -2.171 -0.0829
Tipping Point 225 29.1 -5.824 32.0% -2.676 -0.4515
Unnatural Proliferation 157 31.82 -4.022 40.13% -2.276 -0.1949
Untended Land Crumbles 144 29.84 -5.085 41.67% -2.356 -0.2534

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2299 49.22% 37.19 -0.342 70.33% -0.022 -0.7098
B 2226 45.66% 37.57 -0.205 71.25% -0.048 -0.8314
C 2417 44.07% 37.99 0.11 74.31% 0.155 -0.8574
D 2240 49.73% 36.99 -0.278 67.86% -0.027 -0.8047
E 505 49.26% 37.08 -0.695 70.89% -0.243 -1.1377
F 881 46.5% 38.72 0.114 72.64% 0.012 -0.8284
G 794 49.1% 38.9 0.202 71.66% 0.095 -0.7372
H 848 46.82% 38.79 -0.002 71.34% -0.125 -0.9644
East 787 53.27% 46.62 2.455 59.09% -0.027 -0.6032
Northeast 763 53.76% 47.19 2.712 61.07% 0.143 -0.3811
Northwest 663 54.86% 44.87 1.633 56.86% -0.034 -0.6291
Southeast 171 52.63% 41.39 0.701 63.16% -0.045 -0.6741
Southwest 139 61.76% 31.8 -4.118 48.2% -0.83 -1.0283
West 743 55.62% 41.91 0.025 48.99% -0.631 -0.9579

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 231 0.0% 35.93 -4.049 87.01% -1.556 0.4974
Not Using Events or Tokens 2167 54.39% 35.61 -0.908 63.22% -0.336 -0.1215
Skip Initial Invader Actions 529 16.57% 50.62 4.183 86.58% 0.339 -0.3476
Start of Game Growth 569 18.7% 50.21 4.021 86.47% 0.919 0.4503
Unlimited Undo 689 51.07% 38.57 -0.898 70.39% -0.13 -0.553
Using Tokens but Not Events 945 29.82% 40.43 0.371 84.97% 0.42 0.3695

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3508 22.37 48.35%
II 3396 30.88 63.52%
III 2210 34.39 71.86%
IV 1686 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.468 Win Model: 0.286
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7574 51.3% 36.94 62.97%
2 2151 48.27% 40.72 72.57%
3 742 42.16% 41.98 76.15%
4 333 47.38% 41.49 69.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1359
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1161
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1659
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1084
Lose: Invader deck ran out 253
Lose: Adversary condition 769
Win: Sacrifice victory 280
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2233
Lose: Spirit destroyed 418

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)