Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 92 53.26% 36.24 -0.604 63.04% -0.585 -0.3044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 80 43.75% 47.01 3.475 78.75% -0.024 0.3491
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 32 68.75% 46.09 5.535 65.63% -0.157 0.6905
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 34 76.47% 40.88 1.606 38.24% -1.457 -0.2189
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 76.92% 49.08 6.237 46.15% -1.106 0.4166
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 36.57 1.667 14.29% -0.767 1.2614
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 35.71% 70.4 12.766 66.67% -1.078 1.0144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 495 46.15% 35.51 -0.763 71.31% -0.168 -0.1209
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 346 46.22% 38.74 0.904 71.97% -0.224 -0.2521
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 256 58.27% 45.88 4.647 68.36% -0.225 -0.2279
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 138 65.94% 49.86 6.323 63.04% -0.43 -0.1455
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 123 59.35% 55.8 8.997 65.85% -0.383 -0.0049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 57 75.44% 55.91 9.55 50.88% -0.618 0.2156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 143 90.21% 44.83 4.384 24.48% -1.869 -0.6198
The Kingdom of England 0 1 527 48.09% 34.3 -1.302 65.65% -0.487 -0.1547
The Kingdom of England 1 3 253 52.96% 42.06 2.26 64.43% -0.507 -0.0241
The Kingdom of England 2 4 169 60.71% 39.92 1.553 50.3% -1.215 -0.258
The Kingdom of England 3 6 120 70.59% 41.65 2.555 41.67% -1.524 0.0532
The Kingdom of England 4 7 104 66.35% 45.19 3.562 36.54% -1.979 -0.4565
The Kingdom of England 5 9 41 80.49% 55.29 9.61 43.9% -0.884 1.1802
The Kingdom of England 6 11 135 60.45% 62.57 11.874 42.96% -1.64 0.6157
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 339 52.21% 35.75 -0.76 60.18% -0.776 -0.2514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 197 64.47% 36.29 -0.493 50.25% -1.056 -0.1644
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 186 51.08% 42.22 2.803 45.7% -1.701 0.4277
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 126 63.71% 40.84 1.95 29.37% -2.428 -0.2414
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 115 46.09% 39.68 0.873 20.87% -3.165 -1.0197
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 84 44.05% 41.9 1.94 17.86% -3.179 -1.3604
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 211 50.71% 46.11 3.092 21.8% -3.471 -1.3356
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 426 47.02% 35.35 -0.932 73.71% -0.012 0.0736
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 284 44.37% 40.04 1.347 75.35% -0.003 0.0061
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 244 56.38% 40.9 1.738 64.75% -0.339 -0.122
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 189 62.96% 48.25 6.059 66.67% -0.169 0.1157
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 93 84.95% 38.09 1.363 36.56% -1.253 -0.4756
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 85 69.41% 43.94 3.761 42.35% -1.309 -0.1437
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 129 83.72% 40.17 2.08 30.23% -1.767 -0.6345
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 72 43.48% 35.97 -1.001 75.0% 0.02 -0.0973
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 43 58.14% 42.77 2.015 65.12% -0.415 0.2735
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 29 51.72% 40.93 1.532 51.72% -1.352 -0.9156
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 16 68.75% 42.19 2.861 43.75% -1.167 0.108
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 82.35% 40.0 2.276 35.29% -1.487 -0.3295
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 9 100.0% 30.67 -2.501 0.0% -1.718 0.3176
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 90.0% 32.8 -0.808 0.0% -2.265 -0.3156

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 4854 50.0 35.43 -1.659 66.73% -0.237 0.1182
1 Thematic 1518 54.05 43.42 1.551 51.84% -0.387 0.1103
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1133 48.13 39.37 0.626 72.73% 0.203 0.3927
2 Coastline 96 42.71 42.9 1.528 81.25% 0.381 0.5162
2 Fragment 27 55.56 35.48 -1.401 59.26% -0.164 0.2618
2 Heart 23 38.1 40.17 0.569 69.57% -0.099 0.1919
2 Opposite Shores 174 38.67 40.13 -0.097 84.48% 0.178 0.4042
2 Thematic 380 54.91 45.37 1.785 61.05% 0.0 0.0446
2 Top to Top 30 30.0 40.23 0.002 80.0% -0.085 0.0312
3 Coastline 1 100.0 86.0 22.806 100.0% 0.643 0.605
3 Other 17 41.18 45.0 1.957 88.24% 0.456 0.8583
3 Round (Default) 508 40.32 40.06 0.366 78.35% 0.178 0.209
3 Sunrise 7 42.86 41.71 0.91 71.43% -0.39 -0.6433
3 Thematic 125 56.8 47.59 1.748 58.4% 0.169 -0.1703
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 15.617 100.0% 0.016 0.0952
4 Other 6 66.67 34.67 -2.959 50.0% -0.578 -0.4971
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0 55.0 3.277 100.0% 0.022 -0.7701
4 Thematic 70 45.59 47.77 -0.3 68.57% -0.28 -1.3582
4 Trapezoid (Default) 209 46.31 39.8 0.017 70.81% -0.395 -0.4272
5 Other 1 100.0 61.0 12.875 100.0% 0.4 0.1827

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 341 32.83 -4.001 41.06% -2.226 -0.1583
Aid From Lesser Spirits 281 34.68 -3.182 48.4% -2.006 -0.0898
All Things Weaken 102 31.0 -4.643 43.14% -2.248 -0.088
Back Against the Wall 290 32.94 -4.112 42.41% -2.353 -0.2609
Disintegrating Ecosystem 358 29.33 -5.659 38.83% -2.338 -0.1161
Downward Spiral 822 30.64 -4.796 43.43% -2.16 -0.1462
Erosion of Will 330 30.72 -5.172 37.88% -2.419 -0.208
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 34 45.53 2.013 82.35% -0.308 0.4039
Memory Fades to Dust 899 31.21 -4.565 42.16% -2.193 0.0232
Power Corrodes the Spirit 95 33.2 -3.552 52.63% -1.75 0.2702
Promising Farmlands 351 29.16 -5.939 34.19% -2.654 -0.4391
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 44.64 2.168 81.82% -0.059 0.3585
Thriving Communities 103 30.85 -4.777 41.75% -2.162 -0.0555
Tipping Point 225 29.1 -5.89 32.0% -2.621 -0.4053
Unnatural Proliferation 114 32.78 -3.811 42.11% -2.121 -0.0404
Untended Land Crumbles 96 30.81 -4.763 42.71% -2.242 -0.1467

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1953 49.03% 37.17 -0.415 70.51% 0.15 -0.9233
B 1945 45.4% 37.72 -0.272 71.0% 0.056 -1.108
C 2081 44.01% 38.02 0.056 74.0% 0.303 -1.0939
D 1922 49.97% 36.94 -0.402 67.27% 0.094 -1.0643
E 344 49.37% 37.22 -0.724 72.97% 0.023 -1.234
F 733 47.67% 38.97 0.127 72.58% 0.199 -1.0274
G 649 48.27% 39.39 0.27 72.57% 0.273 -0.9394
H 676 45.84% 39.23 0.006 71.89% 0.015 -1.2061
East 712 52.84% 46.97 2.461 59.27% 0.161 -0.775
Northeast 679 52.9% 47.45 2.691 61.27% 0.298 -0.5713
Northwest 606 54.74% 45.37 1.687 56.93% 0.134 -0.8115
Southeast 136 52.94% 41.6 0.376 61.76% -0.115 -1.0979
Southwest 112 58.72% 33.84 -3.627 52.68% -0.556 -1.1807
West 681 54.51% 42.22 -0.081 48.75% -0.526 -1.1911

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 206 0.0% 36.68 -4.024 88.35% -1.47 0.5685
Not Using Events or Tokens 1771 54.73% 35.79 -0.88 63.47% -0.303 -0.0827
Skip Initial Invader Actions 479 13.29% 51.51 4.355 88.52% 0.655 -0.0513
Start of Game Growth 513 15.65% 50.94 4.06 87.72% 0.701 0.2422
Unlimited Undo 607 51.34% 38.95 -0.922 70.68% -0.124 -0.5259
Using Tokens but Not Events 736 31.0% 41.17 0.427 84.51% 0.43 0.3837

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2978 22.34 47.45%
II 2924 30.71 64.57%
III 1867 34.23 71.99%
IV 1413 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.44 Win Model: 0.081
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6384 50.93% 37.33 63.22%
2 1856 48.4% 40.8 71.66%
3 655 43.34% 41.76 74.96%
4 287 46.24% 42.02 70.03%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1078
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 920
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1391
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 837
Lose: Invader deck ran out 210
Lose: Adversary condition 695
Win: Sacrifice victory 248
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1861
Lose: Spirit destroyed 358

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)