Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 159 59.12% 35.47 -2.432 58.49% -0.15 0.3713
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 123 52.85% 42.84 -7.094 66.67% 0.097 0.4505
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 53 69.81% 45.4 0.0 60.38%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 51 72.55% 42.8 13.239 45.1% 0.116 1.5142
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 19 73.68% 50.32 19.281 47.37% 0.143 1.7257
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 92.86% 56.43 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 105 33.65% 75.8 2.093 40.95% -1.05 1.1303
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 503 43.94% 36.1 0.537 72.56% 0.551 0.547
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 381 49.87% 38.49 0.261 71.92% 0.47 0.1828
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 291 61.51% 45.74 3.404 68.38% 0.454 0.6433
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 127 66.93% 48.08 -4.775 59.84% -0.435 -0.0366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 138 58.7% 53.86 11.982 60.87% 0.27 0.6488
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 67.8% 62.81 11.781 54.24% 0.131 1.2872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 228 71.05% 74.61 9.13 42.98% -0.767 0.6736
The Kingdom of England 0 1 515 47.25% 34.22 -3.803 65.83% -0.084 0.4481
The Kingdom of England 1 3 228 52.63% 42.02 2.743 64.91% 0.22 0.8842
The Kingdom of England 2 4 178 63.48% 39.37 0.435 48.88% -0.044 1.0787
The Kingdom of England 3 6 137 73.53% 37.73 -3.892 32.12% -0.951 0.7322
The Kingdom of England 4 7 115 69.57% 44.19 -6.468 35.65% -0.99 0.473
The Kingdom of England 5 9 49 85.71% 76.78 28.14 53.06% 0.156 2.2233
The Kingdom of England 6 11 493 68.9% 102.77 14.025 58.62% -0.716 1.8514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 344 50.58% 35.89 -14.778 61.34% 0.047 0.7395
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 224 66.96% 36.18 -3.833 47.32% -0.563 0.4754
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 177 50.85% 43.8 10.862 48.59% 0.385 2.498
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 140 61.59% 40.91 0.0 30.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 89 48.31% 43.3 0.0 29.21%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 86 51.16% 48.36 18.597 24.42% 0.163 2.2314
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 217 53.46% 68.85 13.746 37.79% -0.549 1.6308
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 10 50.0% 45.0 -0.197 80.0% 0.176 0.2169
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 0.0% 57.5 5.373 100.0% 0.14 1.0542
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 51.67 4.604 100.0% 0.263 1.2813
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 66.67% 57.0 -4.699 66.67% -0.232 0.6269
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 35.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 102.0 21.69 100.0% 0.205 1.4424
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 48 64.58% 87.35 5.481 54.17% -0.705 0.792
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 429 45.77% 35.13 -6.301 72.26% -0.698 -0.5485
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 312 47.76% 40.17 -2.796 75.64% -0.368 -0.1959
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 257 58.98% 40.12 -3.142 63.04% -0.479 -0.175
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 169 60.95% 48.17 0.0 66.27%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 117 85.47% 36.99 0.0 35.9%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 90 72.22% 42.71 -6.622 40.0% -0.69 0.3333
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 168 82.74% 46.01 2.98 32.74% -0.414 0.7011
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 136 46.21% 36.41 -1.502 75.74% 0.088 -0.3989
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 77 64.94% 39.75 -13.173 62.34% 0.272 1.0388
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 60 61.67% 38.83 0.064 51.67% 0.152 0.5404
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 35 80.0% 40.63 9.674 34.29% 0.25 1.4948
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 78.57% 44.32 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 31.1 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 473 61.95% 123.4 18.178 68.08% -0.441 1.5218

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5730 51.09 35.54 66.63% -0.248 0.4525 -0.647
1 Thematic 1550 54.94 42.93 52.77% 0.06 1.1272 -0.811
2 Archipelago 37 62.16 98.16 62.16% 0.285 0.1244 0.249
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1194 48.52 39.62 72.86% 0.063 0.6044 -0.158
2 Coastline 129 41.86 47.26 84.5% 0.339 0.6087 0.76
2 Fragment 27 70.37 34.19 55.56% -0.454
2 Heart 19 29.41 42.21 89.47% 0.06 0.5913 -0.241
2 Opposite Shores 189 37.85 40.07 85.19% -0.485 0.0842 0.557
2 Thematic 676 62.46 82.27 65.68% 0.074 0.9312 -0.038
2 Top to Top 26 30.77 42.46 84.62% 0.398
3 Archipelago 8 87.5 101.88 62.5% 0.1 -0.0699 0.318
3 Coastline 2 100.0 98.5 100.0% 0.695
3 Other 15 46.67 43.07 86.67% -0.071
3 Round (Default) 537 39.4 41.16 78.77% -0.053 0.2685 0.026
3 Sunrise 9 33.33 41.78 77.78% 0.323
3 Thematic 208 46.63 75.3 66.83% 0.167 0.2222 -0.557
4 Archipelago 3 100.0 150.33 100.0% 0.444 0.5268 0.677
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.13
4 Other 2 50.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 134 25.76 103.23 86.57% 0.0 -0.0111 0.746
4 Trapezoid (Default) 184 49.16 38.84 71.2% -0.316 -0.2722 0.029
5 Other 4 100.0 57.75 50.0% -0.359
5 Thematic 9 55.56 108.44 55.56% 0.043 -0.1555 -0.026
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0% -0.157 -0.0586 -0.148
6 Thematic 9 22.22 58.89 66.67% -0.444
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 25.0 30.25 75.0% -0.238 -0.1182
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.774
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.129 -0.7954 -0.158

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 374 36.18 43.58% -0.543 1.4438 -0.853
Aid From Lesser Spirits 293 36.69 47.44% -0.536 1.2479 -0.988
All Things Weaken 208 42.28 48.56% -0.652 1.3617 -0.473
Back Against the Wall 277 32.33 40.07% -1.065 0.8637 -1.352
Disintegrating Ecosystem 360 30.64 36.39% -1.569 0.5566 -1.223
Downward Spiral 895 32.96 41.56% -1.237 0.7585 -0.967
Erosion of Will 358 31.58 36.87% -1.346 0.7196 -1.076
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 89 66.83 85.39% 0.286 0.8119 0.804
Memory Fades to Dust 1001 34.06 43.86% -1.489 0.6684 -0.81
Power Corrodes the Spirit 220 43.4 48.64% -0.778 1.1981 -0.605
Promising Farmlands 382 32.89 35.86% -0.924 1.1555 -1.053
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 56 62.3 82.14% -0.342 0.1681 -0.042
Thriving Communities 212 46.13 45.75% -0.356 1.6974 -0.573
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.609
Unnatural Proliferation 252 44.72 47.22% -0.564 1.3972 -0.574
Untended Land Crumbles 229 42.13 45.41% -0.691 1.34 -0.594

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1974 50.26% 38.75 69.2% -0.639 0.0825 -0.119
B 1911 46.78% 39.25 73.21% -0.073 0.598 0.014
C 2041 46.14% 38.79 72.76% -0.893 -0.4362 -0.245
D 1770 49.89% 38.01 68.19% -0.419 0.2842 -0.2
E 683 49.07% 38.46 71.01% 0.596 1.1221 -0.624
F 1106 47.91% 38.78 72.51% -0.08 0.5927 -0.173
G 1017 49.45% 38.91 71.19% -0.37 0.2821 -0.113
H 1045 48.64% 38.76 69.76% -0.475 0.201 -0.537
East 1717 53.13% 66.89 63.89% 0.044 0.6969 0.215
Northeast 927 48.32% 69.69 66.77% 0.448 1.0509 0.115
Northwest 772 51.37% 65.92 64.51% 0.183 0.8078 -0.046
Southeast 236 55.51% 53.06 61.44% 0.237 0.7846 -0.589
Southwest 186 64.48% 42.27 50.54% 0.593 1.5363 -0.262
West 1580 55.56% 65.2 59.49% -0.584 0.2159 -0.216

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 239 0.0% 36.13 88.7% 0.22 2.4688 -0.187
Not Using Events or Tokens 2006 53.17% 36.81 64.51% 0.096 0.2936 -0.059
Skip Initial Invader Actions 528 17.56% 50.48 87.12% 0.195 -0.6281 -0.036
Start of Game Growth 582 20.16% 49.96 86.94% 0.157 -0.339 0.687
Unlimited Undo 718 53.6% 39.45 71.17% -0.39 -0.9919 -0.243
Using Tokens but Not Events 1187 39.81% 56.23 81.89% 0.368 0.5074 0.171

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3381 22.64 49.87%
II 3252 31.07 63.16%
III 2111 34.65 68.64%
IV 1972 37.9 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.616 Win Model: 0.38
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7718 53.24% 40.74 63.24%
2 1942 45.79% 45.57 75.85%
3 777 39.84% 53.49 78.38%
4 257 48.4% 44.28 71.98%
5 4 50.0% 77.5 25.0%
6 18 44.44% 55.67 66.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1665
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1437
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2042
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1533
Lose: Invader deck ran out 257
Lose: Adversary condition 777
Win: Sacrifice victory 484
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2129
Lose: Spirit destroyed 392

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-15 03:07:34 (Pacific Time)