Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 110 53.64% 36.18 -0.508 63.64% -0.646 -0.3635
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 106 49.06% 43.21 2.049 67.92% -0.554 -0.1477
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 70.73% 44.54 4.842 60.98% -0.392 0.4829
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 44 70.45% 44.32 3.463 47.73% -1.157 0.0907
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 76.92% 49.08 6.418 46.15% -1.098 0.403
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 36.57 1.722 14.29% -0.823 1.1292
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 35.71% 70.4 13.105 66.67% -1.07 0.9723
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 580 44.39% 35.67 -0.665 71.9% -0.249 -0.2079
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 413 49.15% 38.03 0.755 69.98% -0.354 -0.3721
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 289 58.54% 45.29 4.496 67.13% -0.326 -0.3151
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 147 65.31% 50.08 6.516 63.95% -0.466 -0.1787
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 142 61.27% 54.34 8.594 62.68% -0.538 -0.1705
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 74.58% 55.17 9.235 49.15% -0.786 0.0393
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 164 90.85% 44.9 4.371 24.39% -1.918 -0.6794
The Kingdom of England 0 1 607 49.09% 33.58 -1.446 63.92% -0.592 -0.2603
The Kingdom of England 1 3 281 54.09% 41.78 2.301 64.06% -0.542 -0.0298
The Kingdom of England 2 4 203 61.88% 38.94 1.297 48.28% -1.355 -0.3887
The Kingdom of England 3 6 137 71.32% 41.88 2.959 42.34% -1.485 0.0941
The Kingdom of England 4 7 122 68.03% 44.54 3.455 35.25% -2.003 -0.5067
The Kingdom of England 5 9 41 80.49% 55.29 9.695 43.9% -0.935 1.1365
The Kingdom of England 6 11 159 61.39% 62.71 12.19 44.03% -1.606 0.6418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 388 51.29% 36.07 -0.587 61.08% -0.822 -0.3084
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 223 66.37% 35.62 -0.604 48.43% -1.137 -0.2357
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 203 51.72% 42.42 3.055 46.31% -1.746 0.3948
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 135 63.16% 41.23 2.25 30.37% -2.449 -0.2528
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 118 46.61% 39.77 1.029 21.19% -3.239 -1.0806
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 89 47.19% 41.24 1.907 16.85% -3.289 -1.4753
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 215 51.16% 46.64 3.498 22.79% -3.451 -1.3544
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 476 46.7% 34.99 -0.987 72.9% -0.128 -0.0434
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 343 46.06% 39.47 1.159 74.05% -0.134 -0.1008
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 279 57.19% 40.13 1.613 62.72% -0.441 -0.2069
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 200 63.0% 47.76 5.888 65.5% -0.273 0.0141
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 104 85.58% 37.56 1.182 35.58% -1.379 -0.597
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 95 71.58% 43.26 3.695 41.05% -1.346 -0.1807
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 138 83.33% 41.21 2.596 31.88% -1.704 -0.5799
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 104 41.0% 36.6 -0.579 77.88% -0.032 -0.136
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 62 58.06% 40.47 1.256 62.9% -0.644 0.1333
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 43 60.47% 38.4 1.263 48.84% -1.187 -0.77
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 18 72.22% 42.56 3.175 44.44% -1.071 0.1876
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 22 77.27% 45.59 5.258 45.45% -1.138 -0.0235
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 31.1 -1.894 0.0% -1.859 0.1379
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 83.33% 38.5 1.83 8.33% -2.21 -0.3301

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5710 49.77 35.26 -1.593 66.69% -0.262 -0.078
1 Thematic 1709 55.39 42.57 1.365 51.14% -0.433 -0.0591
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1298 48.79 39.29 0.674 73.19% 0.21 0.2701
2 Coastline 121 42.15 41.32 1.008 80.17% 0.255 0.2698
2 Fragment 32 56.25 34.63 -1.728 59.38% -0.31 -0.0441
2 Heart 24 40.91 40.13 0.659 70.83% -0.025 0.1282
2 Opposite Shores 203 35.75 39.85 -0.152 84.73% 0.152 0.2513
2 Thematic 418 53.98 45.79 2.112 62.68% 0.069 0.0359
2 Top to Top 33 33.33 41.45 0.545 78.79% 0.096 0.077
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 36.0 -0.7 0.0% -0.099 0.9582
3 Coastline 2 100.0 98.5 28.325 100.0% 1.014 0.812
3 Other 19 47.37 44.68 2.103 89.47% 0.573 0.7596
3 Round (Default) 579 38.99 40.5 0.514 79.45% 0.212 0.144
3 Sunrise 7 42.86 41.71 0.988 71.43% -0.367 -0.6342
3 Thematic 131 56.49 46.98 1.556 58.02% 0.115 -0.283
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 15.617 100.0% 0.015 -0.0096
4 Other 7 57.14 35.14 -2.744 57.14% -0.536 -0.6363
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0 55.0 3.213 100.0% 0.022 -0.8297
4 Thematic 74 44.44 47.76 -0.217 68.92% -0.301 -1.3798
4 Trapezoid (Default) 245 48.12 39.01 -0.201 69.8% -0.413 -0.4955
5 Other 3 100.0 67.0 12.279 66.67% 0.043 -0.566

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 386 32.78 -3.948 41.71% -2.258 -0.1847
Aid From Lesser Spirits 318 34.25 -3.31 46.86% -2.12 -0.201
All Things Weaken 132 31.08 -4.403 43.94% -2.25 -0.0797
Back Against the Wall 324 32.0 -4.435 41.05% -2.466 -0.3747
Disintegrating Ecosystem 401 28.86 -5.792 38.15% -2.441 -0.2149
Downward Spiral 949 30.12 -4.961 42.15% -2.252 -0.2298
Erosion of Will 377 30.52 -5.141 38.2% -2.453 -0.2438
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 50 43.2 1.656 82.0% -0.355 0.332
Memory Fades to Dust 1046 31.12 -4.546 41.97% -2.237 -0.0186
Power Corrodes the Spirit 125 30.41 -4.632 46.4% -2.161 -0.1386
Promising Farmlands 384 29.24 -5.803 35.16% -2.671 -0.4578
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 42.56 1.303 84.38% -0.081 0.3294
Thriving Communities 134 30.93 -4.636 42.54% -2.171 -0.0757
Tipping Point 225 29.1 -5.847 32.0% -2.675 -0.4483
Unnatural Proliferation 151 32.03 -3.946 40.4% -2.254 -0.1674
Untended Land Crumbles 138 29.43 -5.287 40.58% -2.393 -0.2858

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2265 49.23% 37.1 -0.381 70.29% 0.087 -0.6959
B 2191 45.54% 37.54 -0.221 71.15% 0.054 -0.8259
C 2377 44.39% 37.9 0.074 74.08% 0.263 -0.8487
D 2206 49.58% 37.0 -0.271 67.95% 0.086 -0.787
E 491 49.02% 37.02 -0.718 70.88% -0.141 -1.1289
F 868 46.38% 38.81 0.161 72.93% 0.136 -0.8015
G 784 49.09% 38.9 0.211 71.56% 0.201 -0.7262
H 816 45.69% 38.99 0.065 72.92% 0.016 -0.9206
East 777 52.93% 46.68 2.458 59.07% 0.084 -0.5885
Northeast 751 53.15% 47.26 2.754 61.52% 0.28 -0.3438
Northwest 657 54.45% 44.95 1.657 57.08% 0.082 -0.6106
Southeast 167 52.1% 41.37 0.692 62.87% 0.038 -0.6913
Southwest 137 61.94% 31.45 -4.261 47.45% -0.746 -1.0417
West 738 55.45% 41.82 -0.038 48.78% -0.528 -0.9493

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 229 0.0% 35.98 -4.076 86.9% -1.585 0.4718
Not Using Events or Tokens 2120 54.22% 35.58 -0.901 63.16% -0.336 -0.1203
Skip Initial Invader Actions 519 14.96% 50.69 4.214 87.48% 0.427 -0.2614
Start of Game Growth 557 17.33% 50.32 4.071 87.25% 0.897 0.4278
Unlimited Undo 682 51.08% 38.57 -0.939 70.23% -0.164 -0.5835
Using Tokens but Not Events 919 30.18% 40.53 0.404 84.87% 0.426 0.3737

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3443 22.35 48.24%
II 3343 30.84 63.75%
III 2177 34.35 72.03%
IV 1656 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.463 Win Model: 0.035
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7433 51.05% 36.94 63.14%
2 2122 48.36% 40.74 72.38%
3 735 42.16% 41.88 76.05%
4 329 47.66% 41.42 69.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1324
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1141
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1633
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1056
Lose: Invader deck ran out 250
Lose: Adversary condition 760
Win: Sacrifice victory 278
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2187
Lose: Spirit destroyed 406

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)