Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 95 53.68% 36.36 -0.54 63.16% -0.605 -0.3221
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 88 47.73% 44.88 2.615 72.73% -0.313 0.0813
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 35 71.43% 46.0 5.565 65.71% -0.122 0.739
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 37 75.68% 41.38 2.035 40.54% -1.349 -0.0986
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 76.92% 49.08 6.344 46.15% -1.081 0.4533
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 36.57 1.681 14.29% -0.779 1.2893
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 15 35.71% 70.4 12.839 66.67% -1.08 0.9978
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 512 45.79% 35.65 -0.699 71.68% -0.169 -0.1266
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 351 46.13% 38.72 0.921 72.08% -0.238 -0.2636
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 257 58.43% 45.89 4.695 68.48% -0.219 -0.2192
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 139 65.47% 49.99 6.423 63.31% -0.433 -0.1398
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 124 59.68% 55.91 9.105 66.13% -0.373 -0.0024
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 57 75.44% 55.91 9.583 50.88% -0.628 0.2097
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 148 90.54% 44.26 4.186 23.65% -1.919 -0.6704
The Kingdom of England 0 1 551 48.36% 34.08 -1.35 64.97% -0.525 -0.1947
The Kingdom of England 1 3 262 54.2% 41.78 2.189 63.74% -0.528 -0.0388
The Kingdom of England 2 4 182 61.33% 39.14 1.287 48.9% -1.277 -0.3125
The Kingdom of England 3 6 125 70.97% 41.92 2.75 42.4% -1.48 0.1002
The Kingdom of England 4 7 116 68.97% 44.1 3.17 34.48% -1.979 -0.4643
The Kingdom of England 5 9 41 80.49% 55.29 9.644 43.9% -0.891 1.1796
The Kingdom of England 6 11 135 60.45% 62.57 11.919 42.96% -1.648 0.6094
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 350 52.57% 35.84 -0.687 60.29% -0.78 -0.2544
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 200 64.5% 36.42 -0.374 50.5% -1.04 -0.1519
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 190 51.05% 42.47 2.909 46.32% -1.715 0.4124
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 128 63.49% 41.02 2.077 29.69% -2.414 -0.23
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 117 46.15% 39.45 0.799 20.51% -3.22 -1.0693
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 46.59% 41.3 1.854 17.05% -3.205 -1.3784
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 211 50.71% 46.11 3.121 21.8% -3.48 -1.3524
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 438 46.4% 35.35 -0.904 73.74% -0.039 0.0494
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 292 44.18% 39.95 1.319 75.0% -0.044 -0.0327
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 246 55.92% 41.01 1.806 65.04% -0.349 -0.1292
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 193 63.73% 47.9 5.941 65.8% -0.196 0.0866
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 99 85.86% 37.44 1.095 35.35% -1.328 -0.5572
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 89 70.79% 43.94 3.886 42.7% -1.254 -0.0867
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 133 84.21% 40.09 2.053 30.08% -1.758 -0.6261
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 77 42.47% 36.68 -0.594 76.62% 0.081 -0.0413
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 46 56.52% 42.61 1.984 65.22% -0.447 0.2682
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 31 54.84% 40.58 1.651 51.61% -1.235 -0.7971
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 16 68.75% 42.19 2.955 43.75% -1.165 0.094
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 82.35% 40.0 2.359 35.29% -1.459 -0.319
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 9 100.0% 30.67 -2.413 0.0% -1.711 0.3498
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 90.0% 32.8 -0.794 0.0% -2.276 -0.3407

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5041 50.13 35.36 -1.634 66.63% -0.239 0.1198
1 Thematic 1557 54.82 43.2 1.518 51.45% -0.385 0.1189
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1166 48.4 39.28 0.627 72.73% 0.211 0.4068
2 Coastline 98 41.84 42.74 1.495 81.63% 0.389 0.532
2 Fragment 28 57.14 35.46 -1.379 60.71% -0.112 0.3107
2 Heart 23 38.1 40.17 0.642 69.57% -0.093 0.2
2 Opposite Shores 180 37.82 39.93 -0.173 83.89% 0.084 0.3089
2 Thematic 389 54.92 45.32 1.811 61.18% 0.012 0.0564
2 Top to Top 30 30.0 40.23 0.011 80.0% -0.117 0.0173
3 Coastline 1 100.0 86.0 22.815 100.0% 0.645 0.6111
3 Other 17 41.18 45.0 1.978 88.24% 0.444 0.8596
3 Round (Default) 521 40.08 40.19 0.444 78.69% 0.192 0.2306
3 Sunrise 7 42.86 41.71 0.93 71.43% -0.389 -0.6122
3 Thematic 126 56.35 47.62 1.816 58.73% 0.189 -0.1675
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 15.773 100.0% 0.017 0.0449
4 Other 7 57.14 35.14 -2.615 57.14% -0.547 -0.434
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0 55.0 3.341 100.0% 0.024 -0.7645
4 Thematic 71 46.38 47.3 -0.371 67.61% -0.297 -1.3835
4 Trapezoid (Default) 219 46.48 39.53 -0.107 70.32% -0.434 -0.4514
5 Other 1 100.0 61.0 13.235 100.0% 0.437 0.2185

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 356 32.99 -3.913 41.29% -2.205 -0.1347
Aid From Lesser Spirits 292 34.63 -3.151 47.95% -2.002 -0.0839
All Things Weaken 109 30.98 -4.537 44.04% -2.2 -0.0449
Back Against the Wall 295 32.79 -4.118 42.37% -2.352 -0.256
Disintegrating Ecosystem 370 29.23 -5.688 38.38% -2.347 -0.1236
Downward Spiral 850 30.45 -4.839 43.18% -2.178 -0.1612
Erosion of Will 343 30.54 -5.219 37.32% -2.44 -0.2301
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 44.53 1.823 81.58% -0.327 0.3776
Memory Fades to Dust 933 31.14 -4.546 42.23% -2.187 0.0283
Power Corrodes the Spirit 97 33.05 -3.514 52.58% -1.746 0.2742
Promising Farmlands 358 29.45 -5.778 34.92% -2.624 -0.4115
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 43.78 1.843 82.61% -0.042 0.3933
Thriving Communities 110 30.89 -4.66 42.73% -2.134 -0.0362
Tipping Point 225 29.1 -5.859 32.0% -2.623 -0.4048
Unnatural Proliferation 125 32.18 -4.051 40.0% -2.231 -0.1532
Untended Land Crumbles 105 30.22 -5.035 40.0% -2.355 -0.2561

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2009 48.88% 37.14 -0.398 70.63% 0.16 -0.9299
B 1993 45.25% 37.68 -0.25 71.1% 0.072 -1.1137
C 2145 44.05% 37.99 0.075 74.08% 0.307 -1.1081
D 1988 50.28% 36.87 -0.392 67.15% 0.106 -1.0714
E 380 49.86% 36.94 -0.791 71.58% 0.015 -1.2615
F 756 47.4% 38.92 0.154 72.88% 0.209 -1.0345
G 683 48.96% 38.99 0.135 71.3% 0.237 -0.9933
H 703 45.93% 39.16 0.032 72.12% 0.046 -1.1944
East 729 53.26% 46.69 2.392 58.85% 0.135 -0.8162
Northeast 690 53.07% 47.45 2.758 61.3% 0.324 -0.566
Northwest 617 54.9% 45.18 1.644 56.73% 0.116 -0.8494
Southeast 140 53.57% 41.49 0.465 61.43% -0.073 -1.0749
Southwest 118 59.13% 33.32 -3.711 51.69% -0.567 -1.1748
West 696 55.35% 42.12 -0.036 48.56% -0.483 -1.1685

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 212 0.0% 36.53 -3.953 88.21% -1.417 0.6268
Not Using Events or Tokens 1842 54.63% 35.64 -0.884 63.63% -0.294 -0.0751
Skip Initial Invader Actions 489 13.66% 51.14 4.288 88.14% 0.561 -0.1429
Start of Game Growth 522 15.43% 50.73 4.089 87.74% 0.779 0.3247
Unlimited Undo 633 51.49% 38.64 -0.971 69.83% -0.179 -0.5914
Using Tokens but Not Events 756 31.01% 41.05 0.43 84.66% 0.439 0.391

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3065 22.34 47.28%
II 3033 30.75 64.36%
III 1930 34.26 72.07%
IV 1457 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.436 Win Model: 0.051
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6611 51.2% 37.22 63.09%
2 1906 48.5% 40.71 71.67%
3 670 42.96% 41.84 75.37%
4 298 46.55% 41.65 69.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1113
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 967
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1455
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 877
Lose: Invader deck ran out 220
Lose: Adversary condition 710
Win: Sacrifice victory 253
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1938
Lose: Spirit destroyed 368

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)