Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 176 57.39% 33.43 -11.839 55.68% -1.63 -1.419
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 126 51.59% 42.26 -11.283 65.87% -0.644 -0.2094
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 70.18% 43.67 -8.972 57.89% -0.648 0.0848
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 51 72.55% 42.8 0.0 45.1%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 70.0% 51.45 0.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 92.86% 56.43 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 121 32.5% 77.32 8.869 41.32% -0.566 1.3747
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 533 43.42% 35.43 -1.082 71.11% 0.149 0.2472
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 401 49.37% 37.85 -3.235 70.57% -0.232 -0.3238
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 305 59.02% 45.51 4.83 68.52% 0.552 0.4886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 134 64.93% 46.76 -9.186 58.21% -0.656 -0.394
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 138 58.7% 53.86 0.0 60.87%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 62 67.74% 61.4 -9.577 53.23% -0.79 -0.3456
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 254 68.11% 73.11 -0.006 41.73% -0.91 0.3726
The Kingdom of England 0 1 551 47.07% 33.04 -6.879 63.52% -0.853 -0.6774
The Kingdom of England 1 3 238 51.68% 42.14 7.804 65.55% 0.691 0.9054
The Kingdom of England 2 4 185 62.16% 38.91 -1.686 48.11% -0.47 0.2835
The Kingdom of England 3 6 140 74.1% 38.16 -0.709 32.86% 0.199 1.3598
The Kingdom of England 4 7 117 70.09% 43.64 -16.961 35.04% -0.641 0.3741
The Kingdom of England 5 9 60 83.33% 82.65 13.478 55.0% -0.442 1.0999
The Kingdom of England 6 11 564 67.08% 102.35 11.674 58.69% -0.225 1.7944
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 359 49.86% 35.45 -3.107 60.72% -0.104 0.2495
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 233 66.95% 35.61 -4.252 46.78% -0.45 0.5188
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 188 49.47% 43.68 3.162 48.4% -0.448 0.6402
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 147 61.38% 40.14 -0.49 29.93% -0.393 0.9949
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 91 48.35% 43.55 14.49 29.67% -0.021 1.4125
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 51.14% 48.57 -2.246 25.0% -0.332 0.6401
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 242 51.24% 69.96 7.303 38.43% -0.324 1.0317
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 20 35.0% 24.7 -13.63 45.0% -1.598 -1.685
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 40.0% 30.2 -10.354 40.0% -0.606 -0.1724
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7 71.43% 41.0 -11.12 71.43% -0.73 -0.3253
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 33.33% 52.0 7.43 66.67% 0.214 0.5459
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 80.0% 29.6 -16.326 20.0% -0.614 -0.0498
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 51.0 -11.961 50.0% -0.434 0.3061
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 82 62.2% 83.32 3.364 51.22% -0.904 0.3732
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 449 45.07% 34.15 -7.947 70.16% -0.936 -0.786
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 329 47.42% 39.34 -6.347 74.47% -0.474 -0.4841
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 269 58.21% 39.59 -3.362 62.08% 0.171 0.4032
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 179 60.89% 47.74 -4.06 65.92% -0.608 -0.262
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 120 84.17% 37.6 15.926 37.5% 0.536 1.1528
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 95 72.63% 41.95 -0.544 38.95% -0.575 0.3728
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 183 80.87% 48.44 8.858 34.43% 0.006 0.8105
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 158 43.51% 35.34 -1.616 73.42% 0.32 0.3625
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 87 64.37% 38.13 -2.125 58.62% -0.118 0.4853
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 62 59.68% 37.58 -17.102 50.0% -0.71 -0.4171
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 37 81.08% 39.78 2.702 32.43% -0.393 0.713
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 32 75.0% 38.78 -9.632 37.5% -0.853 0.1774
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 92.31% 30.46 1.165 7.69% 0.19 1.6227
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 571 59.19% 121.59 16.384 68.13% 0.35 2.3066

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6051 50.38 35.07 65.91% 0.201 0.4103 -0.609
1 Thematic 1610 54.28 42.11 51.86% -0.545 0.0534 -0.695
2 Archipelago 39 61.54 98.49 61.54% -0.138 0.2193 0.291
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1287 48.59 39.39 71.87% 0.427 0.5868 -0.13
2 Coastline 135 42.96 46.39 83.7% 0.4 0.4603 0.732
2 Fragment 29 68.97 34.45 58.62% 0.48 0.4168 -0.501
2 Heart 20 27.78 40.1 85.0% -0.441 -0.6785 -0.257
2 Opposite Shores 198 37.63 40.01 85.35% 0.948 1.082 0.584
2 Thematic 788 61.07 82.64 63.83% -0.535 0.1015 -0.058
2 Top to Top 27 29.63 42.44 85.19% 0.279 0.3191 0.406
3 Archipelago 14 85.71 112.71 71.43% 0.527 -0.5596 0.299
3 Coastline 3 100.0 65.67 66.67% 0.625
3 Other 17 41.18 38.0 76.47% -0.338 -0.2283 -0.128
3 Round (Default) 565 39.75 40.69 77.17% -0.412 -0.4536 -0.002
3 Sunrise 9 33.33 41.78 77.78% 0.298
3 Thematic 236 41.95 79.16 66.53% -0.78 -0.7441 -0.51
4 Archipelago 3 100.0 150.33 100.0% 0.661
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.126
4 Other 2 50.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 143 27.66 101.81 84.62% 0.451 0.4334 0.585
4 Trapezoid (Default) 198 47.67 38.43 69.7% -0.252 -0.4388 0.12
5 Other 5 80.0 46.2 40.0% -0.152 -0.6607 -0.569
5 Thematic 9 55.56 108.44 55.56% -0.011
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0% -0.109
6 Thematic 10 30.0 59.2 70.0% 0.258 0.6571 -0.387
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 25.0 30.25 75.0%
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.623
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.125

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 389 36.84 44.22% 0.437 0.7082 -0.664
Aid From Lesser Spirits 301 36.92 47.51% -0.193 -0.1544 -0.941
All Things Weaken 219 43.72 48.86% 0.271 0.732 -0.345
Attenuated Essence 2 7.5 0.0% -0.372 -0.1667
Back Against the Wall 295 32.27 40.34% 0.129 0.2909 -1.179
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 0.0 0.0% -0.135 0.2793
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 45.25 25.0% -0.359 -0.0541 0.097
Disintegrating Ecosystem 377 30.75 36.07% -0.707 -0.1799 -1.153
Downward Spiral 947 33.48 41.5% -0.292 0.0612 -0.782
Erosion of Will 370 31.67 36.49% -0.42 -0.0118 -1.075
Intensifying Exploitation 5 98.4 80.0% 0.718 1.1054 0.63
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 97 66.6 84.54% 0.384 -0.1416 0.829
Memory Fades to Dust 1046 34.34 43.88% -0.224 0.2568 -0.672
Power Corrodes the Spirit 236 44.21 47.88% -0.053 0.2515 -0.535
Promising Farmlands 389 32.77 35.48% -1.286 -0.7 -0.954
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 25.67 33.33% -0.044 0.1346
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 39.0 37.5% -0.268 0.2655 0.269
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 71.12 83.33% 0.761 0.0834 0.204
The Border of Life and Death 1 155.0 100.0% 0.325 0.1951 0.244
Thriving Communities 221 45.69 46.15% -0.348 0.1449 -0.448
Thriving Crops 2 19.5 50.0% 0.23 0.3181
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.509
Unnatural Proliferation 268 44.94 47.39% -0.138 0.1588 -0.553
Untended Land Crumbles 244 42.45 45.49% -0.381 -0.0225 -0.577

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2093 49.66% 38.39 68.42% 0.178 1.018 -0.123
B 2030 46.42% 38.91 72.22% 0.077 0.8556 0.029
C 2174 46.26% 38.34 71.53% 0.044 0.6978 -0.211
D 1859 49.59% 37.63 67.51% 0.179 0.9779 -0.196
E 743 48.58% 38.17 69.31% -0.082 0.5464 -0.57
F 1166 47.14% 38.38 71.87% 0.035 0.7542 -0.218
G 1088 49.3% 38.9 69.85% -0.168 0.5743 -0.075
H 1113 47.95% 38.41 68.91% -0.074 0.5739 -0.498
East 1902 52.41% 67.84 62.67% 0.222 0.826 0.133
Northeast 1000 46.83% 70.65 66.1% 0.047 0.9284 0.116
Northwest 807 50.5% 65.12 63.2% -0.632 0.0413 -0.078
Southeast 257 53.7% 53.0 60.7% 0.601 1.2371 -0.217
Southwest 198 62.56% 40.57 48.99% -0.877 0.288 -0.456
West 1723 54.43% 66.35 58.56% 0.034 0.9985 -0.206

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 245 0.0% 35.76 87.35% -1.086 -0.2029 -0.541
Not Using Events or Tokens 2121 52.87% 36.19 63.22% -0.308 0.0242 -0.122
Skip Initial Invader Actions 548 17.43% 50.21 86.31% 0.444 -0.0914 -0.003
Start of Game Growth 604 20.35% 49.65 86.09% 0.671 0.3403 0.687
Unlimited Undo 761 51.59% 38.82 69.38% -0.749 -0.7709 -0.21
Using Tokens but Not Events 1311 40.8% 57.49 79.63% 0.124 0.0704 0.268

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3683 21.03 47.76%
II 3393 31.04 63.01%
III 2226 34.74 68.24%
IV 2111 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.211 Win Model: -0.066
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8195 52.62% 40.61 62.45%
2 2104 45.16% 46.34 74.9%
3 817 40.15% 52.81 76.62%
4 273 46.99% 43.39 70.7%
5 6 50.0% 62.0 33.33%
6 18 44.44% 55.67 66.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1738
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1507
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2126
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1604
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 192
Lose: Invader deck ran out 264
Lose: Adversary condition 811
Win: Sacrifice victory 552
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2209
Lose: Spirit destroyed 410

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)