Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 10 10.0% 15.2 -3.302 30.0% -0.233 0.2119
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 6 33.33% 28.17 0.852 50.0% 0.214 0.1655
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 33.33% 0.0 -11.818 0.0% -0.205 -0.0681
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 66.67% 61.0 5.413 100.0% 0.175 0.2205
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 33.33% 26.0 2.551 33.33% -0.141 0.273
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -0.57 0.0% -0.117 0.7637
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 48 35.42% 76.56 8.935 54.17% -0.051 1.7183
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 243 52.26% 28.89 -12.903 48.97% -0.808 -0.3828
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 166 48.19% 38.28 0.998 59.64% -0.011 0.2571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 78 62.82% 37.15 4.268 48.72% -0.097 0.4324
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 70 64.29% 37.37 -3.874 40.0% -0.603 0.3672
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 33 51.52% 42.45 -9.865 45.45% -0.268 1.0764
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 68.18% 38.91 0.0 18.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 242 24.07% 76.18 3.497 42.98% -0.518 1.3094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 741 40.46% 30.67 -1.957 61.4% 0.188 0.3838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 608 43.64% 32.23 0.388 59.21% 0.139 0.0844
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 468 52.14% 39.7 3.506 60.68% 0.334 0.3355
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 191 61.78% 39.94 0.113 48.69% 0.007 0.199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 186 48.92% 46.43 -16.156 53.76% -0.632 -0.3992
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 100 53.0% 42.04 -4.29 35.0% -0.422 -0.0209
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 453 50.55% 68.32 9.735 39.96% -0.464 0.7599
The Kingdom of England 0 1 761 43.31% 28.89 -2.404 55.19% -0.23 0.0711
The Kingdom of England 1 3 382 42.26% 31.8 -4.33 49.74% -0.426 -0.1673
The Kingdom of England 2 4 306 56.07% 31.16 -4.0 37.91% -1.011 -0.5487
The Kingdom of England 3 6 202 66.67% 32.97 -3.048 28.22% -0.723 0.2986
The Kingdom of England 4 7 177 58.19% 34.51 -3.487 26.55% -0.359 0.5952
The Kingdom of England 5 9 102 63.73% 64.9 1.351 42.16% -0.063 1.5071
The Kingdom of England 6 11 973 57.95% 96.11 15.351 56.12% 0.234 2.0703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 483 44.51% 31.33 0.343 54.24% 0.181 0.5268
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 274 62.41% 32.8 -5.562 43.43% -0.661 0.1662
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 235 47.23% 39.91 -1.065 44.26% -0.096 1.04
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 195 58.55% 37.9 10.921 30.26% 0.033 1.2132
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 109 49.54% 40.64 0.0 25.69%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 98 46.94% 46.23 0.744 24.49% -0.3 0.9441
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 434 39.03% 76.04 1.203 43.32% -1.288 0.0846
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 129 23.26% 23.33 -5.667 47.29% -0.088 0.1844
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 38 31.58% 25.63 -8.83 39.47% -0.671 -0.204
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 43 46.51% 21.35 -4.404 27.91% -1.043 -0.7189
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 40 20.0% 28.6 9.675 30.0% -0.149 -0.1764
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 32 46.88% 24.81 3.906 28.13% 0.074 0.5729
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 13 30.77% 19.46 -13.943 7.69% -0.362 0.1016
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 213 44.6% 76.18 -6.648 46.48% -1.321 -0.2725
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 658 40.52% 28.54 -3.412 58.36% -0.312 -0.0578
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 520 46.35% 32.34 -5.159 60.19% -0.613 -0.5901
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 394 50.77% 33.42 -3.209 53.3% 0.066 0.2621
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 310 58.71% 34.88 2.543 44.84% 0.525 0.7475
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 167 70.06% 31.48 -8.348 31.14% -1.143 -0.3936
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 147 61.9% 31.93 -12.303 28.57% -1.396 -0.3804
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 437 48.05% 29.6 7.293 19.91% -0.257 0.6447
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 269 33.58% 29.15 -7.325 59.85% -0.502 -0.2683
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 133 54.14% 29.57 -9.203 43.61% -1.5 -0.7005
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 108 50.0% 28.94 -11.419 38.89% -0.362 -0.1058
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 58 63.79% 28.64 -8.609 22.41% -0.566 0.5199
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 65 55.38% 27.35 -3.457 26.15% -0.879 0.0732
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 87.5% 31.94 0.0 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1181 46.1% 112.86 17.109 64.78% -0.146 1.4091

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9215 44.76 30.6 58.42% 0.147 0.4796 -0.645
1 Thematic 2056 50.71 37.43 46.79% -0.847 -0.1615 -0.717
2 Archipelago 50 62.0 85.3 58.0% 0.024 0.6312 0.604
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1779 43.0 35.05 65.15% 0.151 0.2707 0.105
2 Coastline 221 39.82 39.6 71.49% -0.626 -0.6977 0.876
2 Fragment 35 74.29 34.06 54.29% -0.64
2 Heart 25 34.78 39.36 84.0% 1.112 0.9545 0.094
2 Opposite Shores 355 36.44 34.7 70.42% 0.466 0.6176 -0.02
2 Thematic 1283 54.3 76.93 57.52% -0.339 0.1685 -0.115
2 Top to Top 48 29.17 40.48 75.0% 0.658 0.5997 0.098
3 Archipelago 62 64.52 113.05 69.35% -0.315 -1.2672 0.57
3 Coastline 4 66.67 57.25 75.0% 0.441 0.0315 0.743
3 Other 26 30.77 41.04 65.38% 0.175 -0.5966 -0.292
3 Round (Default) 817 35.47 34.41 65.36% 0.008 -0.0831 0.309
3 Sunrise 11 45.45 42.91 81.82% 0.651
3 Thematic 579 22.15 93.82 67.18% 0.284 0.3043 -0.325
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 99.6 80.0% 0.952
4 Leaf 3 0.0 55.67 100.0% 0.152
4 Other 8 57.14 19.88 50.0% -0.134 -0.8451 -0.082
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 238 20.34 87.55 69.33% -0.207 -0.084 0.142
4 Trapezoid (Default) 365 35.93 27.52 49.86% -0.881 -0.884 -0.047
5 Other 21 33.33 22.95 33.33% -0.091 -0.6046 -0.777
5 Thematic 15 46.67 87.87 53.33% 0.084
6 Other 3 66.67 23.33 66.67% -0.166
6 Star 8 50.0 9.88 0.0% -0.776
6 Thematic 21 33.33 39.86 47.62% 0.173 0.4588 -0.28
6 Two Centers (Default) 14 14.29 14.21 35.71% -0.204 0.3286 -0.496
7 Archipelago 6 66.67 99.5 50.0% 0.04
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.046

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 471 34.34 42.25% -0.1 0.1512 -0.168
Aid From Lesser Spirits 346 38.14 49.71% 0.526 0.4677 -0.056
All Things Weaken 283 45.27 48.06% -0.602 -0.2673 0.23
Attenuated Essence 43 39.65 41.86% -0.511 -0.4774 0.12
Back Against the Wall 345 32.82 41.74% 0.508 0.5425 -0.439
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 43.33 45.83% 0.435 0.6522 0.763
Burn Brightest Before the End 36 45.58 50.0% 0.142 0.1524 0.756
Disintegrating Ecosystem 463 30.31 34.99% 0.097 0.4416 -0.556
Downward Spiral 1348 31.3 38.72% -0.285 -0.1678 0.096
Erosion of Will 451 31.42 34.37% -0.158 0.1166 -0.565
Intensifying Exploitation 59 48.76 47.46% -0.377 -0.1655 0.349
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 118 68.63 82.2% 0.298 -0.275 1.329
Memory Fades to Dust 1410 32.1 39.72% -0.461 -0.2091 0.149
Power Corrodes the Spirit 301 44.61 47.18% 0.441 0.645 0.101
Promising Farmlands 478 33.19 36.82% 0.042 0.2959 -0.317
Shattered Fragments of Power 39 35.18 51.28% 0.221 0.2949 0.066
Slow Dissolution of Will 47 42.66 46.81% 0.301 0.6818 -0.063
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 88 74.69 84.09% -0.027 -0.7005 1.073
The Border of Life and Death 23 65.87 73.91% -0.235 -0.8356 0.712
Thriving Communities 292 45.9 46.58% -0.246 0.0358 0.165
Thriving Crops 31 65.45 70.97% -0.457 -0.5975 0.428
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.041
Unnatural Proliferation 343 45.26 46.65% 0.272 0.476 0.049
Untended Land Crumbles 315 42.23 43.17% -0.4 -0.2102 -0.116

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3538 41.32% 30.76 55.31% -0.402 0.596 -0.509
B 3138 41.3% 32.98 60.61% -0.198 0.7237 -0.225
C 3348 40.93% 32.87 61.38% 0.01 0.7385 -0.394
D 2874 43.15% 32.21 58.11% -0.196 0.763 -0.263
E 1225 41.74% 35.04 64.73% -0.072 0.7467 -0.562
F 1652 43.37% 36.24 66.16% -0.19 0.6917 -0.172
G 1530 45.63% 35.55 63.07% -0.105 0.7206 -0.208
H 1535 43.54% 36.12 63.26% 0.057 0.8954 -0.434
East 3063 44.12% 68.52 57.95% -0.091 0.784 0.006
Northeast 1714 35.01% 73.02 61.55% 0.122 0.8737 0.113
Northwest 1107 43.25% 59.39 56.28% -0.635 0.2567 -0.129
Southeast 394 46.7% 47.93 52.28% -0.275 0.5635 -0.195
Southwest 314 48.87% 33.52 40.76% -0.173 1.1313 -0.727
West 2697 44.68% 67.25 54.8% 0.588 1.5381 -0.044

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 302 0.0% 32.29 76.49% -0.088 0.6407 -0.307
Not Using Events or Tokens 3552 47.01% 28.0 49.27% -0.438 -0.0921 -0.519
Skip Initial Invader Actions 647 24.37% 46.6 77.9% 0.123 -0.48 0.243
Start of Game Growth 698 19.14% 46.54 81.38% 0.051 -0.4532 0.601
Unlimited Undo 1100 44.13% 33.27 58.09% 0.245 0.1375 -0.14
Using Tokens but Not Events 2168 32.88% 53.41 75.14% 0.577 0.5477 0.119

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6894 13.42 35.42%
II 4451 30.13 60.68%
III 2880 34.83 67.71%
IV 3054 38.67 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.618 Win Model: 0.195
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 12175 47.19% 36.02 55.84%
2 3354 37.97% 48.86 67.95%
3 1189 34.4% 47.41 66.86%
4 487 35.77% 31.14 51.13%
5 28 28.57% 30.14 32.14%
6 46 36.96% 28.91 36.96%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2418
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1929
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2687
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2171
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2545
Lose: Invader deck ran out 318
Lose: Adversary condition 993
Win: Sacrifice victory 942
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2757
Lose: Spirit destroyed 519

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)