Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 150 60.0% 35.18 -0.008 58.67% -0.183 0.3103
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 120 51.67% 42.87 0.0 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 53 69.81% 45.4 10.722 60.38% 0.183 1.2749
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 74.0% 42.34 0.0 44.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 18 77.78% 48.78 5.345 44.44% -0.442 1.2569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 92.86% 56.43 0.213 28.57% -0.561 1.0531
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 100 35.35% 74.36 -7.246 40.0% -2.218 -0.0204
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 492 44.11% 35.93 -3.037 72.36% -0.308 -0.0389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 375 50.13% 38.4 -1.062 71.47% -0.386 -0.6072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 281 61.92% 45.38 2.463 67.62% 0.082 0.2972
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 125 67.2% 48.01 -1.752 60.0% -0.695 -0.2149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 136 58.82% 53.71 15.704 60.29% 0.091 0.5715
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 55 70.91% 58.85 0.0 50.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 214 73.36% 71.74 14.19 41.12% -0.299 1.2624
The Kingdom of England 0 1 505 47.6% 34.07 2.161 65.54% 0.765 1.1897
The Kingdom of England 1 3 227 52.42% 42.0 -11.549 64.76% -0.575 0.1472
The Kingdom of England 2 4 167 63.47% 38.8 4.062 47.9% 0.441 1.5232
The Kingdom of England 3 6 122 71.07% 39.16 24.066 35.25% 0.049 1.7129
The Kingdom of England 4 7 111 68.47% 44.88 6.391 36.94% -0.267 1.3441
The Kingdom of England 5 9 48 85.42% 75.13 14.155 52.08% -0.2 1.6458
The Kingdom of England 6 11 451 69.11% 101.44 9.399 57.87% -1.689 0.6803
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 342 50.88% 35.82 1.194 61.11% 0.337 1.1616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 214 66.36% 36.26 1.415 47.2% -0.085 0.7385
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 175 50.86% 43.39 17.823 48.0% 0.145 2.4195
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 140 61.59% 40.91 -7.425 30.0% -2.418 -0.11
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 89 48.31% 43.3 -7.318 29.21% -0.892 1.5166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 85 51.76% 47.95 20.671 23.53% 0.125 1.9755
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 206 54.37% 66.11 2.9 35.92% -1.315 0.9839
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 6 33.33% 50.67 8.138 83.33% 0.594 0.3888
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 50.0 3.829 100.0% 0.136 1.035
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 74.0 14.948 100.0% 0.392 1.1438
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 35.33 -1.177 33.33% -0.425 0.8298
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 25 64.0% 108.36 15.359 76.0% -0.338 1.298
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 409 44.58% 35.39 -2.831 73.11% 0.492 0.6211
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 297 48.15% 40.04 -3.844 76.09% 0.275 0.2006
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 252 58.57% 40.2 -4.221 63.1% -0.89 -0.4589
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 169 60.95% 48.17 -0.058 66.27% 0.053 0.2998
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 117 85.47% 36.99 0.0 35.9%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 86 72.09% 43.1 0.0 40.7%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 165 82.42% 45.67 -4.116 32.12% -1.655 -0.4167
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 134 46.92% 36.3 -2.655 75.37% 0.306 0.2133
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 76 64.47% 39.58 1.487 61.84% -0.019 0.8081
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 57 59.65% 38.89 9.928 50.88% 0.657 1.1494
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 34 79.41% 39.85 2.451 32.35% 0.001 1.2013
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 78.57% 44.32 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 31.1 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 408 64.46% 121.75 20.628 66.67% 0.82 2.736

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5573 50.89 35.61 66.68% 0.104 0.655 -0.621
1 Thematic 1520 54.83 42.67 52.3% -0.677 0.0033 -0.778
2 Archipelago 36 63.89 96.53 61.11% 0.123 0.8508 0.163
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1140 48.36 39.62 73.68% -0.046 0.3882 -0.145
2 Coastline 127 41.73 47.46 84.25% 0.388 0.5291 0.774
2 Fragment 27 70.37 34.19 55.56% -0.443
2 Heart 18 25.0 43.28 88.89% 0.183 0.5167 -0.265
2 Opposite Shores 184 37.79 40.09 85.87% -0.288 0.2786 0.653
2 Thematic 636 62.3 80.88 65.09% -0.055 0.3689 -0.007
2 Top to Top 26 30.77 42.46 84.62% 0.217 0.5274 0.365
3 Archipelago 6 83.33 101.83 66.67% 0.032 -0.4526 0.388
3 Coastline 2 100.0 98.5 100.0% 0.672
3 Other 15 46.67 43.07 86.67% -0.081
3 Round (Default) 515 39.14 41.09 79.03% -0.326 -0.01 0.059
3 Sunrise 9 33.33 41.78 77.78% 0.321
3 Thematic 178 52.25 68.07 62.92% 0.217 -0.1152 -0.702
4 Archipelago 1 100.0 155.0 100.0% 0.229 -0.5971 0.299
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.135
4 Other 2 50.0 37.0 100.0% 0.14 -0.1847
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 120 27.97 101.94 85.83% 0.64 0.754 0.893
4 Trapezoid (Default) 179 49.43 38.93 70.95% 0.084 -0.0244 0.022
5 Other 4 100.0 57.75 50.0% -0.289 0.0226 -0.366
5 Thematic 7 57.14 94.57 42.86% -0.274
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 9 22.22 58.89 66.67% -0.491 -0.5709 -0.256
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 0.0 34.33 100.0% 0.175 0.5069
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.458 -1.2978 -0.79

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 364 35.65 43.41% -1.325 0.5248 -0.877
Aid From Lesser Spirits 289 36.79 47.75% -1.627 0.0173 -0.945
All Things Weaken 198 41.88 47.98% -0.454 1.5293 -0.436
Back Against the Wall 268 32.25 40.3% -0.492 1.3573 -1.398
Disintegrating Ecosystem 350 30.41 36.57% -0.789 1.1724 -1.148
Downward Spiral 862 33.03 41.65% -1.44 0.4761 -0.95
Erosion of Will 348 31.53 36.78% -1.746 0.3176 -1.132
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 86 64.67 84.88% 0.482 1.0003 0.75
Memory Fades to Dust 967 33.92 44.05% -1.252 0.7476 -0.783
Power Corrodes the Spirit 198 41.53 47.98% -1.032 0.8612 -0.654
Promising Farmlands 370 32.07 35.68% -1.003 0.9916 -1.07
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 53 61.68 83.02% -0.273 0.1695 0.042
Thriving Communities 201 44.56 44.28% -0.376 1.572 -0.613
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.589
Unnatural Proliferation 243 45.0 46.5% -0.263 1.6375 -0.606
Untended Land Crumbles 218 41.58 44.5% -1.002 0.993 -0.626

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1907 50.13% 38.67 69.64% -0.208 0.5442 -0.043
B 1851 46.62% 39.13 73.2% -0.033 0.6506 0.042
C 1952 45.46% 38.87 74.03% -0.38 0.1631 -0.129
D 1711 49.56% 38.0 68.26% -0.705 0.0384 -0.1
E 666 48.81% 38.19 70.57% -0.079 0.5194 -0.611
F 1064 47.73% 38.71 72.46% 0.577 1.2623 -0.139
G 991 49.23% 38.81 71.24% -0.951 -0.2381 -0.01
H 1009 48.08% 38.8 70.27% 0.364 1.0155 -0.437
East 1615 54.08% 64.6 62.66% 0.307 1.0126 0.175
Northeast 863 50.29% 67.05 65.24% -0.269 0.4062 0.196
Northwest 735 52.05% 64.19 63.4% 0.142 1.2247 -0.04
Southeast 233 55.79% 52.08 60.94% -0.11 0.6096 -0.562
Southwest 182 63.69% 41.0 49.45% 0.18 1.1824 -0.324
West 1489 56.41% 62.74 58.09% -0.776 0.2561 -0.124

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 237 0.0% 36.18 88.61% -0.624 1.4161 -0.193
Not Using Events or Tokens 1927 52.98% 36.77 64.66% -0.084 0.1262 -0.079
Skip Initial Invader Actions 522 17.52% 50.33 87.16% 0.162 0.069 -0.044
Start of Game Growth 572 20.11% 49.87 87.06% 0.331 -0.3893 0.716
Unlimited Undo 702 53.61% 39.37 71.23% 0.445 -0.2401 -0.306
Using Tokens but Not Events 1134 39.67% 55.27 81.92% 0.219 0.1209 0.24

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3286 22.6 49.88%
II 3146 31.02 63.32%
III 2044 34.58 68.64%
IV 1870 37.82 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.407 Win Model: 0.447
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7499 52.99% 40.55 63.18%
2 1850 46.18% 44.46 76.05%
3 733 40.05% 52.19 78.04%
4 245 49.58% 43.26 71.02%
5 4 50.0% 77.5 25.0%
6 15 33.33% 62.33 80.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1618
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1391
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1981
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1472
Lose: Invader deck ran out 251
Lose: Adversary condition 751
Win: Sacrifice victory 442
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2060
Lose: Spirit destroyed 380

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-13 02:58:21 (Pacific Time)