Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 206 56.8% 31.16 -3.537 51.94% -0.709 -0.2932
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 136 50.74% 40.52 -2.505 63.24% -0.128 0.1839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 64 65.63% 40.81 -12.575 54.69% -0.322 0.4499
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 62 64.52% 39.47 4.613 43.55% 0.241 1.2077
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 27 59.26% 51.89 9.889 55.56% -0.2 1.2323
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 19 78.95% 45.05 4.493 21.05% -0.246 1.176
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 172 26.9% 72.62 6.292 39.53% -1.204 0.8766
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 629 41.63% 32.62 -3.648 65.02% -0.356 -0.1229
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 498 46.37% 33.85 -4.051 62.65% -0.65 -0.536
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 371 56.6% 41.95 0.495 63.07% -0.293 -0.1739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 160 61.25% 42.36 -4.189 51.88% -0.867 -0.6718
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 158 52.53% 50.25 -6.42 57.59% -1.062 -0.7587
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 68 64.71% 58.13 -13.503 50.0% -0.393 0.1878
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 340 60.0% 71.9 4.359 41.47% -0.948 0.541
The Kingdom of England 0 1 654 45.06% 30.89 -0.883 59.79% -0.003 0.3359
The Kingdom of England 1 3 342 42.52% 32.27 -4.394 50.29% -0.765 -0.4813
The Kingdom of England 2 4 243 60.49% 34.36 -0.032 41.98% -0.126 0.6092
The Kingdom of England 3 6 173 69.77% 34.75 -0.483 29.48% -0.54 0.6452
The Kingdom of England 4 7 151 64.24% 37.7 -2.581 29.14% -0.981 0.2216
The Kingdom of England 5 9 74 79.73% 82.95 15.131 55.41% 0.092 1.7777
The Kingdom of England 6 11 747 64.15% 100.73 13.995 58.1% -0.714 1.3439
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 417 46.04% 32.88 -10.18 56.59% -1.288 -0.7455
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 249 65.06% 34.29 -13.128 45.38% -0.838 -0.1713
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 214 48.6% 41.8 -0.745 46.26% -0.91 0.1693
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 168 60.84% 38.52 -3.667 29.76% -0.841 0.5747
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 95 49.47% 43.12 0.0 29.47%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 96 46.88% 46.78 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 329 45.59% 71.02 8.531 39.82% -0.796 0.6188
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 85 20.0% 24.26 -6.102 49.41% -0.551 -0.307
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 19 31.58% 24.63 -2.393 42.11% -0.494 0.1178
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 23 52.17% 21.91 -12.272 34.78% -1.484 -0.989
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 28 21.43% 24.75 -10.452 28.57% -0.494 -0.0442
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 20 45.0% 30.95 2.338 35.0% -0.671 0.1213
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 20.0% 26.2 1.22 20.0% -0.419 0.1099
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 131 53.44% 81.21 21.887 50.38% 0.059 1.0166
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 559 42.7% 30.81 -1.005 62.97% -0.107 0.0969
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 407 46.44% 36.21 3.65 68.55% 0.665 0.6955
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 341 54.41% 35.05 -3.576 55.13% -0.62 -0.4339
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 247 53.04% 38.78 1.416 53.44% 0.044 0.3857
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 144 75.69% 33.83 -3.282 34.03% -0.584 0.1334
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 123 65.04% 36.5 -9.798 33.33% -1.501 -0.7231
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 355 49.01% 28.0 -8.949 19.15% -2.562 -1.4472
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 208 36.76% 31.91 -3.507 66.83% -0.072 0.0707
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 107 59.81% 33.89 -12.916 51.4% -0.532 0.2696
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 82 57.32% 32.89 -11.348 42.68% -0.869 -0.6418
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 49 67.35% 32.45 -9.341 26.53% -0.177 0.9256
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 49 57.14% 28.71 2.932 28.57% -0.124 0.867
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 93.33% 34.07 0.0 13.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 857 53.21% 116.11 13.997 66.04% -0.295 1.3937

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7733 46.31 31.94 60.71% -0.146 -0.1277 -0.595
1 Thematic 1823 51.99 39.68 49.15% 0.003 0.4177 -0.614
2 Archipelago 42 61.9 93.31 59.52% 0.332 0.8726 0.593
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1534 45.39 36.76 68.25% -0.629 -0.6937 0.045
2 Coastline 172 40.7 42.64 77.91% 0.141 0.015 0.729
2 Fragment 34 73.53 33.82 52.94% -0.405 -0.8575 -0.726
2 Heart 20 27.78 40.1 85.0% -0.159
2 Opposite Shores 256 35.25 38.76 80.86% 0.588 0.3951 0.188
2 Thematic 1030 57.84 79.36 59.81% -0.167 -0.0136 0.006
2 Top to Top 33 27.27 41.79 81.82% 0.568
3 Archipelago 35 71.43 118.34 74.29% 0.186 -1.0272 0.584
3 Coastline 3 100.0 65.67 66.67% 0.627
3 Other 24 29.17 42.46 66.67% 0.24 -0.0934 -0.416
3 Round (Default) 687 36.95 36.81 70.16% 0.1 -0.2036 0.082
3 Sunrise 11 45.45 42.91 81.82% 0.271 0.825 0.48
3 Thematic 361 31.3 87.87 66.2% -0.762 -1.1336 -0.482
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 99.6 80.0% 0.782
4 Leaf 1 0.0 97.0 100.0% 0.102
4 Other 6 60.0 19.83 50.0%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 177 24.57 99.14 79.1% 0.781 1.0721 0.195
4 Trapezoid (Default) 243 47.68 36.97 67.49% -0.374 -0.0584 0.223
5 Other 19 36.84 25.37 36.84% -0.031 -0.7129 -1.048
5 Thematic 14 42.86 89.86 57.14% -0.104 0.0109 0.107
6 Other 1 0.0 38.0 100.0% -0.13
6 Thematic 17 29.41 39.88 52.94% -0.326
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 10.0 16.4 40.0% -0.516
7 Archipelago 5 80.0 108.8 60.0% -0.201
7 Other 2 100.0 24.5 0.0% -0.109

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 429 35.73 43.36% -1.164 -1.0199 -0.372
Aid From Lesser Spirits 325 37.83 49.54% 0.292 0.2584 -0.423
All Things Weaken 250 46.04 49.2% -0.333 0.0364 0.084
Attenuated Essence 24 38.92 50.0% 0.26 0.3779 -0.044
Back Against the Wall 320 31.86 40.0% -0.63 -0.5434 -0.89
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 23 45.43 47.83% 0.301 0.5234 0.64
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 50.59 40.91% 0.507 0.6116 0.249
Disintegrating Ecosystem 420 30.51 35.48% -0.097 0.2755 -0.756
Downward Spiral 1122 32.76 40.29% -0.546 -0.3546 -0.18
Erosion of Will 413 31.14 34.62% -0.569 -0.2791 -0.679
Intensifying Exploitation 39 52.08 48.72% 0.201 0.4735 0.124
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 108 68.38 85.19% 0.68 0.1275 1.338
Memory Fades to Dust 1225 32.9 41.8% -0.422 -0.1119 -0.167
Power Corrodes the Spirit 265 46.2 47.55% -0.036 0.2669 -0.071
Promising Farmlands 434 32.87 35.94% -0.033 0.3085 -0.544
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 35.11 57.89% 0.427 0.5369 -0.427
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 38.29 50.0% -0.31 0.1144 0.009
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 77 74.64 85.71% 0.191 -0.4122 0.845
The Border of Life and Death 10 77.5 80.0% 0.396 0.1372 0.732
Thriving Communities 251 47.26 47.01% 0.316 0.6384 -0.098
Thriving Crops 15 83.6 66.67% 0.14 0.0847 0.667
Tipping Point 112 30.14 30.36% -1.245
Unnatural Proliferation 306 45.41 47.39% 0.147 0.3004 -0.144
Untended Land Crumbles 285 41.36 44.56% -1.044 -0.7351 -0.269

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2840 44.25% 32.78 58.56% -0.486 0.4074 -0.399
B 2516 44.07% 35.94 66.41% -0.214 0.5984 -0.159
C 2665 42.97% 35.67 67.43% 0.177 0.8453 -0.319
D 2319 46.24% 34.93 63.0% -0.079 0.7514 -0.242
E 1014 43.09% 36.34 67.46% 0.624 1.3114 -0.691
F 1411 44.57% 37.15 68.96% 0.203 0.9744 -0.163
G 1329 47.18% 37.37 67.19% 0.067 0.8229 -0.104
H 1333 45.17% 36.78 65.42% 0.357 1.1119 -0.472
East 2424 48.61% 68.06 59.74% 0.444 1.303 0.065
Northeast 1302 41.4% 71.79 63.44% 0.575 1.3023 0.122
Northwest 938 47.0% 62.71 60.02% -0.084 0.7199 -0.095
Southeast 327 49.85% 49.74 55.05% 0.085 0.7815 -0.105
Southwest 257 52.76% 34.59 42.02% -1.018 0.3414 -0.886
West 2139 49.69% 66.49 56.05% -0.015 0.9651 -0.136

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 269 0.0% 33.94 82.16% 0.021 0.8609 -0.757
Not Using Events or Tokens 2800 48.94% 31.43 55.54% -0.222 0.2159 -0.328
Skip Initial Invader Actions 613 23.53% 47.48 79.61% -1.159 -1.7302 0.114
Start of Game Growth 657 20.54% 47.6 82.8% 0.809 0.2636 0.653
Unlimited Undo 959 48.01% 34.82 60.79% -0.811 -0.767 -0.091
Using Tokens but Not Events 1715 36.59% 55.1 76.73% 1.721 1.6905 0.086

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5311 16.21 39.84%
II 3923 30.54 61.97%
III 2529 34.77 67.93%
IV 2537 38.38 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.369 Win Model: -0.131
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 10280 48.83% 37.59 58.07%
2 2639 41.45% 47.03 71.35%
3 995 36.6% 49.58 70.55%
4 332 47.06% 41.37 67.47%
5 24 25.0% 28.54 33.33%
6 30 33.33% 37.7 50.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2093
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1699
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2418
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1880
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1389
Lose: Invader deck ran out 289
Lose: Adversary condition 890
Win: Sacrifice victory 712
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2470
Lose: Spirit destroyed 460

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-14 05:47:50 (Pacific Time)