Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Rituals of Terror

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Difficulty	Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
3	10800	49.94%	38.18	65.99%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	1507	36.6%	41.15	1.123	77.57%	0.345	0.449
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	546	75.93%	30.47	-3.547	41.39%	-0.814	-0.6159
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	394	56.17%	38.2	-0.475	63.96%	0.001	-0.1131
Eyes Watch From the Trees	745	38.24%	40.94	1.129	78.39%	0.529	0.1252
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	494	37.26%	42.49	1.44	77.94%	0.439	0.1334
Fractured Days Split the Sky	59	52.54%	43.08	1.815	71.19%	0.166	0.5144
Heart of the Wildfire	505	75.0%	31.32	-2.954	47.33%	-0.255	0.0637
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	987	39.47%	44.5	2.495	79.13%	0.898	0.5552
Lightning's Swift Strike	968	57.99%	36.57	-0.881	61.67%	0.043	0.2685
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	144	54.47%	36.86	-0.539	73.61%	0.222	-0.0651

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	111	54.05%	36.26	-0.471	63.96%	-0.62	-0.3312
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	109	49.54%	42.97	1.966	66.97%	-0.618	-0.2044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	41	70.73%	44.54	4.847	60.98%	-0.39	0.4932
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	44	70.45%	44.32	3.464	47.73%	-1.155	0.0874
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	13	76.92%	49.08	6.402	46.15%	-1.105	0.392
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	7	100.0%	36.57	1.719	14.29%	-0.834	1.1049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	15	35.71%	70.4	13.157	66.67%	-1.047	0.9962
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	585	44.52%	35.7	-0.649	72.14%	-0.242	-0.2007
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	417	48.92%	38.02	0.755	70.02%	-0.361	-0.3791
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	295	59.39%	45.16	4.446	66.78%	-0.333	-0.3194

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	5817	49.96	35.24	-1.602	66.53%	-0.058	0.028
1	Thematic	1729	55.56	42.55	1.357	51.13%	-0.223	0.054
2	Archipelago	4	75.0	39.5	-0.647	25.0%	-0.195	-0.1878
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	1315	48.69	39.29	0.669	73.38%	0.282	0.3074
2	Coastline	128	42.19	41.66	0.992	78.91%	0.255	0.23
2	Fragment	32	56.25	34.63	-1.766	59.38%	-0.275	-0.0527
2	Heart	24	40.91	40.13	0.649	70.83%	0.043	0.1426
2	Opposite Shores	208	35.87	40.16	0.012	84.62%	0.229	0.2947
2	Thematic	426	54.85	45.7	2.104	62.44%	0.128	0.0608
2	Top to Top	34	35.29	41.41	0.586	79.41%	0.21	0.1412

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	396	32.8	-3.95	41.41%	-2.273	-0.2039
Aid From Lesser Spirits	321	34.22	-3.319	46.73%	-2.126	-0.2136
All Things Weaken	136	31.12	-4.449	43.38%	-2.279	-0.1193
Back Against the Wall	328	32.04	-4.405	40.85%	-2.469	-0.3821
Disintegrating Ecosystem	410	29.03	-5.712	37.8%	-2.444	-0.2216
Downward Spiral	969	30.15	-4.96	41.9%	-2.269	-0.247
Erosion of Will	382	30.47	-5.162	37.96%	-2.474	-0.2661
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	51	42.98	1.521	82.35%	-0.36	0.3184
Memory Fades to Dust	1073	31.25	-4.457	42.12%	-2.242	-0.0267
Power Corrodes the Spirit	128	30.77	-4.509	46.09%	-2.172	-0.1507
Promising Farmlands	390	29.26	-5.783	35.13%	-2.675	-0.4669
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	32	42.56	1.318	84.38%	-0.088	0.3235
Thriving Communities	136	31.09	-4.589	42.65%	-2.171	-0.0829
Tipping Point	225	29.1	-5.824	32.0%	-2.676	-0.4515
Unnatural Proliferation	157	31.82	-4.022	40.13%	-2.276	-0.1949
Untended Land Crumbles	144	29.84	-5.085	41.67%	-2.356	-0.2534

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	2299	49.22%	37.19	-0.342	70.33%	-0.022	-0.7098
B	2226	45.66%	37.57	-0.205	71.25%	-0.048	-0.8314
C	2417	44.07%	37.99	0.11	74.31%	0.155	-0.8574
D	2240	49.73%	36.99	-0.278	67.86%	-0.027	-0.8047
E	505	49.26%	37.08	-0.695	70.89%	-0.243	-1.1377
East	787	53.27%	46.62	2.455	59.09%	-0.027	-0.6032
F	881	46.5%	38.72	0.114	72.64%	0.012	-0.8284
G	794	49.1%	38.9	0.202	71.66%	0.095	-0.7372
H	848	46.82%	38.79	-0.002	71.34%	-0.125	-0.9644
Northeast	763	53.76%	47.19	2.712	61.07%	0.143	-0.3811
Northwest	663	54.86%	44.87	1.633	56.86%	-0.034	-0.6291
Southeast	171	52.63%	41.39	0.701	63.16%	-0.045	-0.6741
Southwest	139	61.76%	31.8	-4.118	48.2%	-0.83	-1.0283
West	743	55.62%	41.91	0.025	48.99%	-0.631	-0.9579

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	231	0.0%	35.93	-4.049	87.01%	-1.556	0.4974
Not Using Events or Tokens	2167	54.39%	35.61	-0.908	63.22%	-0.336	-0.1215
Skip Initial Invader Actions	529	16.57%	50.62	4.183	86.58%	0.339	-0.3476
Start of Game Growth	569	18.7%	50.21	4.021	86.47%	0.919	0.4503
Unlimited Undo	689	51.07%	38.57	-0.898	70.39%	-0.13	-0.553
Using Tokens but Not Events	945	29.82%	40.43	0.371	84.97%	0.42	0.3695

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	3508	22.37	48.35%
II	3396	30.88	63.52%
III	2210	34.39	71.86%
IV	1686	37.55	100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.468 Win Model: 0.286

Num.	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
1	7574	51.3%	36.94	62.97%
2	2151	48.27%	40.72	72.57%
3	742	42.16%	41.98	76.15%
4	333	47.38%	41.49	69.67%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	769
Lose: Blight pool ran out	2233
Lose: Invader deck ran out	253
Lose: Spirit destroyed	418
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	1359
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	1659
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	1161
Win: Sacrifice victory	280
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	1084

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)