Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1094 34.46% 30.88 -0.011 77.33% -0.39 0.1873
Dahan Insurrection 4 811 33.04% 52.78 -0.046 66.95% -0.604 -0.2034
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 40.5 0.078 100.0% 0.095 0.5238
Elemental Invocation 1 80 44.3% 37.1 0.025 83.75% 0.211 0.5924
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3631 13.71% 46.26 0.012 80.8% -0.127 0.2391
Powers Long Forgotten 1 420 58.84% 33.24 -0.053 65.24% -0.612 -0.1701
Rituals of Terror 3 369 44.93% 42.43 -0.048 67.21% -0.655 -0.0269
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 288 73.87% 37.07 -0.094 53.47% -0.772 -0.1221
Second Wave 0 4092 39.17% 30.39 -0.012 78.96% -0.684 -0.2681
The Great River 3 120 50.0% 33.17 -0.061 68.33% -1.228 0.2431
Ward the Shores 2 477 42.71% 36.71 -0.07 64.36% -1.041 -0.0043

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 36739 41.43% 30.64 0.001 77.5% -0.631 -0.2726
1 Thematic 2463 41.65% 37.56 -0.024 69.67% -0.23 0.2741
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12440 45.34% 31.74 -0.004 76.28% -0.391 -0.195
2 Coastline 1409 42.29% 31.38 0.016 81.62% -0.23 -0.0876
2 Fragment 330 41.19% 29.45 0.003 79.39% -0.377 0.0452
2 Heart 208 51.52% 26.59 -0.032 71.15% -0.909 -0.6167
2 Opposite Shores 2379 35.07% 31.48 0.001 79.53% -0.529 -0.3046
2 Thematic 1108 42.93% 35.65 -0.043 66.16% -0.24 -0.1957
2 Top to Top 274 41.89% 31.76 -0.0 78.47% -0.403 -0.2688
3 Coastline 43 43.9% 34.72 0.004 79.07% -0.111 -0.144
3 Other 280 39.57% 34.45 0.028 85.71% 0.022 0.4377
3 Round (Default) 6506 38.33% 34.05 0.006 79.34% -0.104 -0.0647
3 Sunrise 40 33.33% 30.57 -0.001 80.0% -0.283 -0.5064
3 Thematic 331 42.42% 36.57 -0.036 67.98% 0.016 -0.3404
4 Coastline 28 21.43% 31.64 0.022 85.71% -0.013 0.1452
4 Leaf 25 36.0% 38.64 0.035 84.0% 0.483 0.5105
4 Other 204 34.17% 36.98 0.027 84.31% 0.324 0.4372
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 0.098 100.0% 0.299 -0.489
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 -0.02 66.67% -0.052 0.0724
4 Thematic 1069 34.11% 44.24 0.001 75.3% 0.666 -0.4201
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5193 31.47% 36.39 0.012 81.24% 0.076 0.0588
5 Other 68 36.36% 39.5 0.077 94.12% 1.38 1.1619
5 Thematic 10 30.0% 35.6 0.12 100.0% 1.292 -1.5361

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2343 31.24 -0.112 56.04% -1.765 0.3051
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2105 33.09 -0.089 61.14% -1.574 0.3438
All Things Weaken 964 29.4 -0.135 51.56% -2.065 0.0895
Back Against the Wall 2026 31.4 -0.12 54.54% -1.851 0.2452
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2226 28.94 -0.12 54.72% -1.859 0.3649
Downward Spiral 3976 26.9 -0.098 61.32% -1.747 0.2699
Erosion of Will 2253 29.39 -0.134 52.15% -2.013 0.1967
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 415 35.02 -0.008 78.31% -0.68 0.0242
Memory Fades to Dust 4012 26.51 -0.122 56.7% -1.985 0.2296
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1003 29.71 -0.113 55.63% -1.826 0.1937
Promising Farmlands 2230 29.02 -0.12 54.44% -1.846 0.3661
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 274 35.66 0.01 82.12% -0.477 -0.0418
Thriving Communities 926 30.5 -0.11 56.48% -1.782 0.3156
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 -0.12 54.25% -1.798 0.4205
Unnatural Proliferation 1098 32.94 -0.092 59.65% -1.607 0.4709
Untended Land Crumbles 908 29.36 -0.122 53.96% -1.922 0.1767

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8520 42.74% 30.14 -0.008 76.07% 0.229 -0.8603
B 10346 40.02% 32.93 0.005 78.48% 0.44 -0.7451
C 10130 39.21% 31.85 0.008 79.27% 0.487 -0.928
D 8701 39.57% 31.65 0.003 78.55% 0.378 -0.7992
E 3451 45.55% 32.3 -0.002 76.21% 0.411 -0.8657
F 8262 40.92% 31.59 0.005 78.53% 0.476 -0.7674
G 9146 41.43% 32.15 0.003 77.76% 0.444 -0.787
H 7839 40.31% 31.23 0.001 77.74% 0.39 -0.8504
East 826 42.06% 40.6 -0.024 69.49% -0.406 -1.357
Northeast 1000 44.33% 37.95 -0.04 66.1% -0.582 -1.4715
Northwest 1467 34.91% 40.01 -0.012 73.55% -0.404 -1.3692
Southeast 248 42.34% 35.14 -0.027 70.56% -0.573 -1.5741
Southwest 255 42.75% 32.45 -0.023 71.37% -0.487 -1.0957
West 961 42.53% 38.14 -0.048 65.24% -0.746 -1.4323

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2925 0.0% 19.64 -0.049 76.51% -1.679 0.3651
Not Using Events or Tokens 7648 36.71% 24.6 0.002 79.38% -0.177 0.0416
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2541 11.43% 38.88 0.052 94.21% 0.907 0.2026
Start of Game Growth 3734 14.85% 39.5 0.049 92.02% 0.742 0.2877
Unlimited Undo 6682 34.63% 34.14 0.026 84.62% 0.353 -0.0598
Using Tokens but Not Events 9185 25.5% 29.16 0.035 86.82% 0.234 0.1864

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 4075 28.44% 37.02 0.021 82.6% 0.192 0.3382
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1465 51.67% 31.79 -0.026 71.4% -0.305 -0.0685
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4699 39.35% 32.55 -0.008 76.38% -0.108 -0.1934
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4429 30.66% 32.87 0.018 83.09% 0.141 -0.2246
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4009 34.19% 31.87 0.004 79.9% -0.054 -0.2988
Fractured Days Split the Sky 315 43.41% 36.77 0.022 81.59% 0.301 0.647
Heart of the Wildfire 1929 54.69% 33.67 -0.019 71.44% -0.083 0.2676
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3620 34.23% 38.09 0.019 81.41% 0.256 -0.0441
Lightning's Swift Strike 3371 40.15% 33.37 -0.001 77.66% -0.033 0.236
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 563 44.92% 34.3 -0.008 75.84% -0.082 -0.4018
Many Minds Move as One 631 38.56% 34.49 0.022 83.04% 0.281 -0.2391
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2981 34.91% 39.93 0.026 82.09% 0.475 0.2809
River Surges in Sunlight 3531 35.29% 37.56 0.006 79.24% 0.016 0.1781
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2607 38.98% 37.54 0.002 76.91% 0.121 0.2712
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1511 48.48% 29.13 -0.029 72.4% -0.466 -0.0163
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2258 36.91% 38.32 0.011 79.98% 0.116 0.0485
Shroud of Silent Mist 29 37.93% 25.79 -0.026 75.86% -0.455 -0.4987
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1518 45.94% 34.2 -0.005 75.1% -0.023 -0.0423
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3272 32.44% 34.51 0.02 83.44% 0.197 0.4132
Thunderspeaker 1986 40.29% 35.78 0.002 77.44% 0.106 0.1638
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1000 62.42% 30.53 -0.04 66.8% -0.352 -0.3319
Vital Strength of the Earth 2166 33.85% 29.2 -0.018 75.99% -0.478 0.3925
Volcano Looming High 258 51.17% 34.14 -0.01 73.26% 0.036 -0.0259

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.63%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.24%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.69%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.13%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8989 22.34 25.7%
II 28844 30.75 76.1%
III 25511 34.26 90.39%
IV 7808 37.47 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2310
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22665
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21385
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7711
Lose: Invader deck ran out 756
Lose: Adversary condition 5498
Win: Sacrifice victory 167
Lose: Scenario condition 595
Win: Scenario condition 850
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8934
Lose: Spirit destroyed 281

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.521 Win Model: -0.221

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.003 Win Model: -0.144
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 39220 41.45% 31.08 77.0%
2 18186 43.54% 31.84 76.57%
3 7201 38.58% 34.19 79.06%
4 6545 31.9% 37.67 80.5%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.055 Win Model: -1.05
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 67665 32.88 77.77%
Power Progression 3487 18.79 70.78%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)