Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1196 34.17% 30.9 -0.011 77.51% -0.382 0.1907
Dahan Insurrection 4 890 32.13% 52.85 -0.046 67.53% -0.628 -0.2277
Despicable Theft 2 35 31.43% 35.8 0.028 88.57% -0.093 0.1897
Elemental Invocation 1 117 50.0% 34.34 0.004 78.63% -0.044 0.3955
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3997 13.51% 46.21 0.012 81.04% -0.131 0.2347
Powers Long Forgotten 1 455 58.93% 33.04 -0.052 65.93% -0.615 -0.1742
Rituals of Terror 3 401 43.32% 42.16 -0.044 68.83% -0.642 0.0014
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 312 74.28% 36.93 -0.095 53.53% -0.786 -0.1442
Second Wave 0 4646 39.19% 30.23 -0.013 78.86% -0.69 -0.2617
The Great River 3 150 50.67% 32.33 -0.073 65.33% -1.295 0.1644
Ward the Shores 2 515 42.86% 36.51 -0.072 64.27% -1.068 -0.0307

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 41332 41.21% 30.61 0.002 77.74% -0.69 -0.3574
1 Thematic 2802 41.96% 36.8 -0.027 69.38% -0.444 0.0538
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 13837 44.92% 31.63 -0.004 76.58% -0.416 -0.2155
2 Coastline 1672 43.05% 31.77 0.01 80.32% -0.294 -0.1393
2 Fragment 369 41.29% 29.11 0.007 80.49% -0.355 0.0404
2 Heart 237 51.54% 26.9 -0.021 73.42% -0.764 -0.4422
2 Opposite Shores 2676 35.51% 31.14 0.001 79.75% -0.544 -0.3152
2 Thematic 1208 43.02% 35.63 -0.038 67.38% -0.311 -0.2501
2 Top to Top 316 42.02% 32.65 0.005 79.43% -0.316 -0.1844
3 Coastline 50 45.83% 32.5 -0.01 76.0% -0.281 -0.3191
3 Other 311 38.96% 33.9 0.026 85.53% 0.003 0.4229
3 Round (Default) 7254 38.51% 33.97 0.007 79.72% -0.05 0.0056
3 Sunrise 43 35.71% 30.3 0.005 81.4% -0.177 -0.3711
3 Thematic 353 44.03% 36.24 -0.036 67.71% -0.031 -0.3599
4 Coastline 32 21.88% 31.69 0.006 81.25% -0.182 -0.0565
4 Leaf 26 34.62% 38.12 0.036 84.62% 0.547 0.593
4 Other 227 36.49% 36.34 0.025 83.7% 0.38 0.4922
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 0.096 100.0% 0.308 -0.4741
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 -0.02 66.67% -0.008 0.1463
4 Thematic 1151 33.89% 43.97 -0.0 75.41% 0.626 -0.3985
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5840 31.46% 36.33 0.012 81.47% 0.162 0.197
5 Other 74 33.33% 40.14 0.078 94.59% 1.514 1.2586
5 Thematic 14 21.43% 35.57 0.113 100.0% 1.382 -1.5614

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2560 30.92 -0.115 55.74% -1.824 0.2492
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2323 33.05 -0.089 61.34% -1.594 0.3254
All Things Weaken 1151 29.26 -0.137 51.69% -2.099 0.0593
Back Against the Wall 2222 31.35 -0.12 54.91% -1.865 0.2294
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2469 28.92 -0.118 55.29% -1.855 0.3694
Downward Spiral 4397 26.7 -0.099 61.38% -1.778 0.2435
Erosion of Will 2464 29.15 -0.136 51.87% -2.059 0.1499
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 505 35.4 -0.007 79.01% -0.715 -0.0222
Memory Fades to Dust 4486 26.39 -0.123 56.82% -2.013 0.205
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1173 29.69 -0.114 55.92% -1.854 0.1674
Promising Farmlands 2461 29.04 -0.12 54.57% -1.863 0.3517
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 323 34.96 0.013 83.28% -0.468 -0.0574
Thriving Communities 1105 30.33 -0.113 56.11% -1.834 0.2589
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 -0.121 54.25% -1.817 0.4087
Unnatural Proliferation 1331 32.48 -0.098 58.98% -1.69 0.399
Untended Land Crumbles 1098 29.38 -0.12 54.74% -1.924 0.1819

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 9563 42.82% 30.1 -0.009 76.12% 0.182 -0.9297
B 11515 39.71% 32.83 0.004 78.48% 0.376 -0.8321
C 11272 39.06% 31.8 0.008 79.57% 0.442 -0.9968
D 9732 39.4% 31.55 0.003 78.84% 0.341 -0.8608
E 4174 44.98% 32.6 0.001 77.1% 0.404 -0.9082
F 9248 40.37% 31.45 0.006 79.03% 0.445 -0.8202
G 10267 41.42% 32.01 0.003 78.11% 0.41 -0.8471
H 8820 40.32% 31.13 0.0 77.79% 0.335 -0.9308
East 909 41.52% 40.23 -0.025 69.86% -0.358 -1.3388
Northeast 1106 43.97% 37.92 -0.037 66.91% -0.492 -1.4231
Northwest 1592 35.68% 39.6 -0.014 73.43% -0.351 -1.3502
Southeast 288 42.71% 35.09 -0.024 71.53% -0.476 -1.5016
Southwest 300 45.0% 31.84 -0.032 69.33% -0.494 -1.1135
West 1043 43.06% 37.63 -0.051 64.81% -0.711 -1.4357

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3265 0.0% 19.53 -0.05 76.32% -1.7 0.3541
Not Using Events or Tokens 8860 36.03% 24.78 0.003 79.81% -0.164 0.0541
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2825 11.01% 38.36 0.05 94.3% 0.866 0.172
Start of Game Growth 4177 14.5% 39.13 0.049 92.2% 0.764 0.3008
Unlimited Undo 7495 34.01% 34.01 0.025 84.87% 0.346 -0.0743
Using Tokens but Not Events 10474 24.89% 29.29 0.034 87.04% 0.227 0.1745

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 4591 27.95% 36.99 0.022 83.21% 0.178 0.311
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1593 51.06% 31.41 -0.027 71.69% -0.352 -0.1232
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 5116 39.31% 32.32 -0.008 76.66% -0.147 -0.2333
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4907 30.47% 32.75 0.019 83.64% 0.132 -0.2409
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4388 33.97% 31.78 0.006 80.56% -0.043 -0.3033
Fractured Days Split the Sky 391 41.97% 36.91 0.023 82.1% 0.321 0.6891
Heart of the Wildfire 2083 55.48% 33.29 -0.02 71.53% -0.114 0.2363
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4040 35.36% 37.88 0.016 80.84% 0.202 -0.1019
Lightning's Swift Strike 3719 40.21% 33.26 -0.002 77.79% -0.076 0.1832
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 783 44.56% 34.2 -0.004 76.76% -0.069 -0.3422
Many Minds Move as One 748 38.46% 34.33 0.026 84.09% 0.337 -0.1775
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3296 34.73% 40.17 0.025 81.98% 0.428 0.2326
River Surges in Sunlight 3970 34.47% 37.5 0.005 79.42% -0.032 0.1205
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2845 38.98% 37.31 0.002 77.19% 0.083 0.2268
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1696 47.97% 28.99 -0.029 72.58% -0.501 -0.0605
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2469 36.29% 38.02 0.01 80.28% 0.074 0.0023
Shroud of Silent Mist 242 45.23% 30.34 0.005 79.34% 0.031 0.0114
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1687 45.69% 34.24 -0.006 75.22% -0.063 -0.0831
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3586 32.7% 34.44 0.02 83.74% 0.178 0.3811
Thunderspeaker 2205 40.29% 35.65 0.001 77.46% 0.054 0.1047
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1125 62.53% 30.56 -0.039 67.11% -0.369 -0.3612
Vital Strength of the Earth 2372 34.2% 29.15 -0.017 76.43% -0.491 0.379
Volcano Looming High 446 51.36% 33.29 -0.006 74.89% 0.017 -0.0064

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.52%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.24%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.8%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9937 22.34 26.01%
II 32400 30.81 76.3%
III 28624 34.31 90.39%
IV 8868 37.5 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2585
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25428
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24109
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8755
Lose: Invader deck ran out 878
Lose: Adversary condition 5979
Win: Sacrifice victory 193
Lose: Scenario condition 654
Win: Scenario condition 930
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10002
Lose: Spirit destroyed 316

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.534 Win Model: -0.22

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.003 Win Model: -0.166
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 44157 41.26% 31.0 77.21%
2 20352 43.37% 31.75 76.88%
3 8014 38.8% 34.05 79.4%
4 7306 31.87% 37.52 80.7%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.056 Win Model: -1.048
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 75865 32.8 78.03%
Power Progression 3964 18.54 70.74%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)