Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 9 55.56% 28.0 66.67% 0.028 -0.1737 0.0
Blitz 0 1472 33.57% 30.33 77.79% -0.051 0.2065 -0.115
Dahan Insurrection 4 1029 32.2% 52.55 69.1% -1.014 -0.6005 0.389
Despicable Theft 2 98 46.94% 34.24 78.57% 0.357 0.8027 -0.103
Elemental Invocation 1 209 51.44% 32.88 74.64% -0.613 -0.1272 -0.672
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5046 13.87% 46.49 80.96% -0.51 -0.2048 0.651
Powers Long Forgotten 1 530 58.7% 32.79 66.6% -0.495 -0.3135 -0.227
Rituals of Terror 3 464 45.43% 42.47 69.83% 0.28 0.4011 0.041
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 370 74.8% 37.15 56.22% -0.519 -0.1037 0.018
Second Wave 0 5801 38.66% 30.07 79.09% -0.527 0.0392 -0.28
The Great River 3 243 52.07% 31.84 66.26% -1.196 0.2013 -0.401
Varied Terrains 2 15 46.67% 42.07 86.67% 0.336 0.862 1.185
Ward the Shores 2 629 42.12% 36.28 65.98% -1.24 -0.0783 -0.252

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 54348 41.07% 30.55 77.81% 0.064 1.08 -0.058
1 Thematic 3405 42.32% 36.15 70.37% 0.315 1.4873 0.163
2 Archipelago 21 57.14% 38.71 90.48% -0.488 0.4955 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 17734 44.47% 31.6 77.08% 0.001 0.7528 0.062
2 Coastline 2283 41.55% 32.63 80.6% 0.503 1.1051 0.076
2 Fragment 477 41.92% 28.69 79.45% -0.063 0.3846 -0.058
2 Heart 317 50.0% 27.57 76.97% -0.064 0.4744 -0.953
2 Opposite Shores 3429 36.48% 30.9 79.64% -0.28 0.7118 -0.614
2 Other 1 100.0% 35.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Thematic 1502 45.11% 35.35 65.78% -1.105 -0.4069 -0.297
2 Top to Top 448 43.45% 32.69 80.13% 0.292 0.8026 0.494
3 Archipelago 15 20.0% 36.13 93.33% 0.082 0.2556 0.215
3 Coastline 86 46.43% 31.47 80.23% 0.34 -0.4429 0.117
3 Other 420 37.11% 32.4 86.19% 0.664 0.6286 0.346
3 Round (Default) 9247 39.25% 33.7 79.71% -0.144 0.4505 0.088
3 Sunrise 63 31.67% 30.05 87.3% 0.0 0.0368 -0.277
3 Thematic 418 45.8% 35.89 67.7% 0.682 0.6444 -0.194
4 Archipelago 26 41.67% 37.65 88.46% -0.462 -1.1732 0.422
4 Coastline 52 21.15% 30.12 80.77% -0.649 -0.5327 0.166
4 Leaf 41 43.9% 32.46 78.05% -0.131 0.4318 -0.093
4 Other 295 34.95% 34.54 85.08% 0.478 0.2243 0.603
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1341 34.85% 43.19 76.06% -0.916 -0.3869 0.253
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7246 31.43% 36.49 82.24% 0.612 0.5851 0.221
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 27.38 75.0% 0.093 -0.4862 0.0
5 Coastline 9 0.0% 33.89 100.0% 0.194 -0.3702 0.0
5 Other 243 29.26% 34.74 90.95% 0.541 0.7094 1.092
5 Thematic 32 25.0% 39.91 100.0% 0.232 -0.0446 1.195
6 Archipelago 9 14.29% 33.56 100.0% 0.034 -0.222 0.0
6 Coastline 8 0.0% 29.75 100.0% 0.115 -0.4739 0.0
6 Other 97 18.75% 32.75 73.2% -0.815 -0.006 -0.96
6 Star 53 28.3% 29.13 81.13% 0.485 1.2681 -1.036
6 Thematic 160 33.96% 33.99 80.0% -0.65 -0.9291 0.524
6 Two Centers (Default) 242 21.01% 29.85 87.6% -0.212 -0.3059 -1.178
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.016 -0.5618 0.0
7 Other 6 50.0% 27.5 33.33% 0.016 -1.1359 -0.33

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3287 30.89 56.22% -1.605 0.2983 -0.445
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2921 33.03 61.38% -1.755 -0.0251 -0.268
All Things Weaken 1672 29.34 51.97% -1.88 0.1057 -0.721
Back Against the Wall 2790 31.34 55.38% -1.465 0.3515 -0.437
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3113 28.8 55.73% -1.753 0.2972 -0.495
Downward Spiral 5631 26.65 61.8% -1.906 0.0868 -0.599
Erosion of Will 3177 29.27 52.72% -1.602 0.4814 -0.787
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 725 35.67 80.14% -0.575 -0.1344 0.146
Memory Fades to Dust 5657 26.28 57.38% -2.105 -0.0204 -0.609
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1769 30.03 55.23% -2.114 -0.1756 -0.613
Promising Farmlands 3061 28.77 54.07% -2.029 0.0167 -0.917
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 488 35.92 84.63% -0.346 0.079 0.141
Thriving Communities 1634 29.92 56.12% -1.485 0.4985 -0.418
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 54.25% 0.0 -0.1175 -0.704
Unnatural Proliferation 1904 32.89 59.4% -1.474 0.4906 -0.449
Untended Land Crumbles 1632 29.36 55.45% -1.685 0.3079 -0.752

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 22370 40.18% 31.85 78.12% -0.21 0.5878 0.033
B 26057 38.64% 32.93 79.23% -0.097 0.6464 0.237
C 24576 37.88% 33.04 80.12% -0.015 0.5537 0.25
D 21963 38.14% 32.56 79.95% -0.123 0.6731 0.197
E 11221 42.3% 32.95 78.45% -0.313 0.3336 0.206
F 20678 39.01% 32.27 79.62% -0.165 0.5594 0.272
G 21580 40.01% 32.28 78.99% -0.039 0.6925 0.332
H 19767 39.29% 31.76 78.9% -0.492 0.22 0.223
East 4534 40.54% 38.84 71.06% -0.02 0.7484 -0.325
Northeast 3099 40.25% 39.11 70.7% -0.492 0.3676 -0.593
Northwest 2989 39.32% 39.07 72.23% -0.666 0.4106 -0.669
Southeast 881 39.59% 36.49 76.05% 0.659 1.3654 -0.141
Southwest 872 41.77% 34.12 72.71% 0.627 1.7522 -0.056
West 4584 40.92% 37.88 70.22% -1.362 -0.4085 -1.039

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4195 0.0% 19.46 75.42% -1.964 0.1651 -0.936
Not Using Events or Tokens 11814 35.8% 24.73 80.06% -0.016 0.1586 -0.147
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3521 11.08% 37.48 94.55% -0.055 -0.1976 -0.401
Start of Game Growth 5215 15.23% 38.46 92.16% 1.283 0.5224 0.722
Unlimited Undo 9790 33.26% 33.5 85.49% 0.443 -0.1606 0.777
Using Tokens but Not Events 13919 23.76% 29.55 87.25% 0.411 0.2548 0.031

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5895 100.0% 36.91 100.0% 0.158 0.0436 0.453
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1917 100.0% 31.21 100.0% -0.171 -0.075 -0.296
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 6578 100.0% 31.86 100.0% 0.395 0.234 -0.314
Downpour Drenches the World 89 100.0% 28.11 100.0% -0.551 -0.2981 -0.778
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6314 100.0% 32.53 100.0% 0.003 -0.4349 -0.208
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5611 100.0% 31.69 100.0% 0.072 -0.4159 -0.41
Finder of Paths Unseen 90 100.0% 35.56 100.0% -0.119 0.2445 -0.141
Fractured Days Split the Sky 595 100.0% 36.07 100.0% 0.034 0.0895 0.66
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 511 100.0% 35.57 100.0% -0.319 -0.3505 -0.201
Heart of the Wildfire 2538 100.0% 32.83 100.0% -0.463 -0.2888 -0.168
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4932 100.0% 37.57 100.0% 0.107 -0.349 0.324
Lightning's Swift Strike 3792 115.45% 32.16 105.06% -0.404 -0.1295 -0.079
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 35 48.57% 36.54 80.0% 0.13 -0.6468 -0.464
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 419 39.32% 37.75 82.1% 1.275 0.6323 0.914
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 546 38.78% 35.37 79.85% -0.519 -0.7859 0.367
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1478 100.0% 34.57 100.0% -0.271 -0.538 -0.425
Many Minds Move as One 1075 100.0% 33.94 100.0% 0.164 -0.4388 0.455
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4166 100.0% 40.15 100.0% 0.513 0.3282 0.806
River Surges in Sunlight 4705 107.61% 38.05 102.64% -0.376 -0.4101 0.27
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 545 36.94% 30.5 78.53% -0.582 -0.151 0.486
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 34 36.36% 37.59 79.41% 0.014 -0.2861 0.209
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3501 100.0% 36.87 100.0% 0.449 0.3967 0.262
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1545 121.31% 28.29 111.78% 0.06 0.4699 -0.389
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 19 61.11% 37.11 63.16% 0.108 0.1148 0.488
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 13 25.0% 31.77 92.31% 0.254 -0.0928 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 351 45.32% 30.82 72.93% 0.043 0.0626 -0.803
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 273 50.0% 28.38 71.06% -0.009 0.1739 -0.35
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3067 100.0% 37.54 100.0% 0.604 0.3174 0.236
Shifting Memory of Ages 515 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.519 -0.4444 0.051
Shroud of Silent Mist 628 100.0% 30.08 100.0% -0.269 -0.0332 -0.942
Starlight Seeks its Form 375 100.0% 34.1 100.0% 0.04 -0.0995 0.464
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2199 100.0% 34.13 100.0% 0.362 0.1803 -0.251
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4643 100.0% 34.08 100.0% 0.027 0.212 0.697
Thunderspeaker 2799 100.0% 35.11 100.0% -0.015 0.049 0.161
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1429 100.0% 31.01 100.0% 0.242 0.1512 -0.292
Vital Strength of the Earth 2779 107.75% 28.52 103.38% 0.333 1.1415 -0.392
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 26 48.0% 35.77 76.92% 0.03 0.417 0.138
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 349 40.82% 30.87 74.79% -0.546 0.6287 -0.686
Volcano Looming High 993 100.0% 31.75 100.0% -0.234 -0.2381 0.149

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.54%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.14%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.86%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.16%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12778 22.56 26.11%
II 42470 30.98 76.64%
III 37345 34.53 90.53%
IV 11503 37.77 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3335
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 33256
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31799
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11363
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1118
Lose: Adversary condition 7665
Win: Sacrifice victory 269
Lose: Scenario condition 823
Win: Scenario condition 1124
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12952
Lose: Spirit destroyed 392

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.331 Win Model: -0.255

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.055 Win Model: 0.124
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 57847 41.19% 30.89 77.33%
2 26225 43.15% 31.74 77.28%
3 10233 39.43% 33.71 79.57%
4 9052 31.99% 37.39 81.51%
5 173 25.15% 31.55 91.91%
6 566 24.82% 31.32 82.33%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)