Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 22 40.91% 28.68 63.64% 0.311 0.8067 0.0
Blitz 0 1559 33.13% 30.37 78.26% -0.346 0.097 -0.118
Dahan Insurrection 4 1079 32.0% 52.49 69.42% 0.015 0.1118 0.381
Despicable Theft 2 114 47.37% 34.49 78.07% -0.664 -0.1651 0.109
Elemental Invocation 1 227 53.1% 32.95 74.89% 0.612 1.1581 -0.727
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5246 13.89% 46.58 81.01% 0.312 0.5437 0.654
Powers Long Forgotten 1 542 57.94% 32.77 66.97% -0.35 0.0571 -0.172
Rituals of Terror 3 487 45.34% 42.85 70.84% 1.312 1.0765 0.065
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 383 75.39% 37.06 56.14% 0.514 0.74 -0.043
Second Wave 0 6085 38.55% 30.06 78.95% -0.887 -0.1946 -0.342
The Great River 3 257 51.95% 32.2 67.32% -0.008 1.5737 -0.42
Varied Terrains 2 35 48.57% 36.91 77.14% -0.385 0.4013 0.611
Ward the Shores 2 656 42.44% 36.16 66.16% -0.028 0.8533 -0.307

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 57458 41.07% 30.61 77.74% 0.036 0.6985 0.129
1 Thematic 3543 42.36% 36.16 70.45% -0.3 0.7572 0.331
2 Archipelago 26 53.85% 38.27 84.62% -0.82 -0.3494 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18691 44.39% 31.53 77.05% -0.153 0.3648 0.156
2 Coastline 2489 40.04% 33.44 81.32% 0.735 0.9355 0.206
2 Fragment 502 42.65% 29.09 79.28% 0.52 0.8184 0.008
2 Heart 329 50.0% 27.44 76.9% 0.015 0.4755 -0.892
2 Opposite Shores 3607 36.44% 30.98 79.65% 0.012 0.5504 -0.548
2 Thematic 1601 45.22% 35.31 64.71% -0.607 0.1752 -0.199
2 Top to Top 477 43.32% 32.83 79.87% -0.427 -0.2993 0.577
3 Archipelago 24 29.17% 36.17 91.67% -0.113 -0.3317 0.207
3 Coastline 91 44.94% 31.54 81.32% 0.509 0.0014 0.229
3 Other 437 36.81% 32.16 86.5% 0.48 -0.1841 0.24
3 Round (Default) 9793 39.28% 33.79 79.76% 0.109 0.4133 0.08
3 Sunrise 64 32.79% 30.38 87.5% 0.0 0.46 -0.286
3 Thematic 443 46.61% 36.61 67.95% 0.23 0.4383 -0.208
4 Archipelago 33 38.71% 35.61 87.88% -0.023 -0.0604 0.376
4 Coastline 62 24.19% 29.37 80.65% -0.135 -0.1721 0.277
4 Leaf 44 47.73% 31.89 77.27% 0.0 -0.1019 -0.174
4 Other 302 35.14% 34.23 84.77% 0.681 -0.0325 0.889
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1368 34.6% 43.12 76.1% -0.614 -0.5105 0.13
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7569 31.76% 36.51 82.28% -0.001 0.0769 0.126
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 27.38 75.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Coastline 10 0.0% 33.2 100.0% 0.084 -0.5035 0.0
5 Other 287 28.89% 34.75 89.9% 0.405 -0.1112 0.626
5 Thematic 34 23.53% 39.59 100.0% 0.089 -0.1983 1.155
6 Archipelago 20 7.69% 39.15 90.0% -0.004 -0.1507 0.0
6 Coastline 19 0.0% 28.84 100.0% 0.174 -0.4601 0.0
6 Other 132 16.92% 34.77 78.03% 0.25 0.2946 -0.855
6 Star 69 27.54% 29.91 79.71% -0.999 -0.2291 -1.297
6 Thematic 214 33.33% 34.29 78.97% -0.487 -0.246 0.612
6 Two Centers (Default) 335 20.06% 30.21 88.96% -0.212 -0.021 -1.189
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Other 15 40.0% 27.53 53.33% 0.219 -0.2652 -0.73

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3436 30.98 56.2% -1.535 0.4356 -0.465
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3074 33.08 61.0% -1.786 -0.008 -0.258
All Things Weaken 1811 29.56 52.02% -1.603 0.4462 -0.702
Back Against the Wall 2911 31.37 55.44% -1.465 0.4745 -0.454
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3262 28.88 55.79% -1.555 0.5728 -0.495
Downward Spiral 5932 26.66 61.75% -1.562 0.3991 -0.58
Erosion of Will 3335 29.36 52.95% -1.594 0.4879 -0.751
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 787 36.01 79.8% -0.18 0.3217 0.09
Memory Fades to Dust 5924 26.31 57.44% -1.871 0.2695 -0.576
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1919 30.19 55.34% -1.756 0.2244 -0.688
Promising Farmlands 3220 28.9 54.04% -1.455 0.5671 -0.899
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 533 35.87 84.43% -0.471 0.0254 0.117
Thriving Communities 1790 29.97 55.98% -1.969 0.0905 -0.45
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 54.25% 0.0 0.0 -0.706
Unnatural Proliferation 2049 32.95 59.49% -1.323 0.6342 -0.426
Untended Land Crumbles 1766 29.54 56.0% -1.417 0.6159 -0.716

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 23670 40.02% 31.9 78.23% 0.001 0.7377 0.045
B 27523 38.61% 32.93 79.18% -0.152 0.5456 0.227
C 26071 37.81% 33.1 80.22% 0.007 0.4765 0.253
D 23247 38.05% 32.53 79.95% 0.281 0.9903 0.203
E 12323 41.69% 33.14 78.78% 0.458 1.0027 0.279
F 21952 38.94% 32.39 79.65% -0.079 0.5827 0.277
G 22779 40.07% 32.29 78.99% 0.304 0.9349 0.341
H 20961 39.3% 31.8 78.96% 0.093 0.7579 0.213
East 4779 40.62% 38.77 70.75% -0.246 0.4153 -0.287
Northeast 3249 40.14% 39.0 70.76% -0.403 0.257 -0.537
Northwest 3169 39.26% 39.04 72.23% 0.121 0.7319 -0.736
Southeast 969 39.48% 36.35 75.64% -0.699 -0.1677 -0.159
Southwest 957 41.39% 34.01 72.62% 0.343 1.3117 -0.046
West 4866 40.83% 37.82 70.0% -0.61 0.1961 -0.994

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4450 0.0% 19.5 75.06% -2.182 0.0471 -0.897
Not Using Events or Tokens 12559 35.55% 24.82 80.01% -0.436 -0.2095 -0.173
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3716 11.23% 37.51 94.51% 1.124 0.1439 -0.171
Start of Game Growth 5498 15.33% 38.4 92.12% 0.444 -0.0124 0.764
Unlimited Undo 10387 33.18% 33.55 85.54% 0.458 -0.0939 0.751
Using Tokens but Not Events 14881 23.88% 29.56 87.07% 0.01 0.1651 -0.062

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6219 100.0% 36.83 100.0% -0.167 -0.2426 0.477
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1997 100.0% 31.17 100.0% -0.592 -0.5138 -0.351
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 6983 100.0% 31.94 100.0% 0.287 0.0628 -0.303
Downpour Drenches the World 194 100.0% 31.13 100.0% -0.243 0.0221 -0.375
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6667 100.0% 32.62 100.0% 0.358 -0.1452 -0.189
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5912 100.0% 31.76 100.0% 0.314 -0.2729 -0.422
Finder of Paths Unseen 189 100.0% 38.61 100.0% -0.007 0.349 0.36
Fractured Days Split the Sky 653 100.0% 36.01 100.0% -0.557 -0.4746 0.547
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 635 100.0% 36.18 100.0% 0.413 0.3184 -0.013
Heart of the Wildfire 2629 100.0% 32.76 100.0% -0.375 0.0306 -0.183
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5203 100.0% 37.65 100.0% 0.753 0.1495 0.342
Lightning's Swift Strike 3979 117.05% 32.1 105.18% -0.101 0.2639 -0.16
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 86 37.21% 37.12 87.21% 1.285 0.5364 0.307
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 454 37.84% 37.73 82.6% -0.154 -0.7182 0.935
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 591 37.79% 35.8 80.37% -0.138 -0.6325 0.34
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1659 100.0% 34.59 100.0% -0.35 -0.502 -0.542
Many Minds Move as One 1158 100.0% 33.91 100.0% 0.273 -0.3131 0.401
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4375 100.0% 40.19 100.0% 0.692 0.5222 0.799
River Surges in Sunlight 4918 109.35% 37.8 103.11% -0.355 -0.4288 0.262
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 605 36.03% 30.55 79.17% 0.164 0.59 0.468
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 133 38.64% 38.8 79.7% -0.195 -0.5365 -0.129
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3661 100.0% 36.91 100.0% 0.422 0.2279 0.247
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1584 123.42% 28.09 112.69% -1.185 -0.7105 -0.415
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 46 47.73% 38.22 80.43% 0.757 0.9366 0.66
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 31 42.86% 29.94 77.42% -0.313 -0.2574 -0.608
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 364 45.2% 30.71 73.08% -0.128 -0.1508 -0.694
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 293 48.94% 27.92 70.31% -1.215 -1.0995 -0.531
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3227 100.0% 37.63 100.0% 0.258 0.0666 0.22
Shifting Memory of Ages 596 100.0% 31.24 100.0% -0.086 0.1286 -0.17
Shroud of Silent Mist 714 100.0% 30.14 100.0% 0.279 0.4129 -0.841
Starlight Seeks its Form 500 100.0% 35.15 100.0% -0.364 -0.4786 0.337
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2335 100.0% 34.19 100.0% 0.215 -0.0236 -0.271
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4912 100.0% 34.07 100.0% 0.697 0.8271 0.64
Thunderspeaker 2962 100.0% 35.0 100.0% -0.112 -0.1297 0.157
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1523 100.0% 30.9 100.0% -0.56 -0.7754 -0.285
Vital Strength of the Earth 2918 109.19% 28.51 103.98% 0.289 1.1876 -0.41
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 82 43.04% 33.67 78.05% 0.251 0.6741 0.1
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 384 40.74% 30.35 74.48% -0.787 0.3271 -0.702
Volcano Looming High 1139 100.0% 32.07 100.0% 0.214 0.1934 0.122

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.53%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.13%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.82%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13521 22.65 26.08%
II 44922 31.08 76.64%
III 39471 34.66 90.51%
IV 12205 37.91 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3525
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 35144
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 33639
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12056
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1179
Lose: Adversary condition 8137
Win: Sacrifice victory 283
Lose: Scenario condition 854
Win: Scenario condition 1181
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13716
Lose: Spirit destroyed 405

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.747 Win Model: -0.195

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.153 Win Model: 0.005
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 61119 41.18% 30.94 77.28%
2 27736 42.98% 31.8 77.25%
3 10823 39.43% 33.8 79.66%
4 9429 32.24% 37.35 81.55%
5 219 24.76% 32.25 90.41%
6 793 23.73% 32.1 83.48%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)