Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 37 35.14% 24.7 62.16% -0.661 -0.8851 -0.623
Blitz 0 1674 32.61% 29.96 78.02% 0.172 0.3179 -0.078
Dahan Insurrection 4 1135 30.77% 51.67 69.16% -0.06 -0.3122 0.398
Despicable Theft 2 133 46.62% 33.58 73.68% -0.353 0.4172 0.346
Elemental Invocation 1 268 51.31% 31.55 72.39% -0.451 0.307 -0.798
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5517 13.97% 46.51 80.44% 0.861 0.2343 0.74
Powers Long Forgotten 1 599 55.41% 31.69 64.77% -0.889 -0.3684 -0.14
Rituals of Terror 3 507 45.73% 42.03 69.43% -0.886 -0.8362 0.077
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 407 73.4% 35.97 55.04% -1.161 -0.1545 0.011
Second Wave 0 6454 38.15% 29.87 78.73% 0.178 0.2369 -0.25
The Great River 3 290 49.83% 29.88 62.07% -1.889 -0.5411 -0.445
Varied Terrains 2 74 36.49% 31.36 62.16% -0.546 -0.02 -0.831
Ward the Shores 2 688 41.38% 35.42 65.12% -0.994 0.1563 -0.323

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 61406 40.83% 30.24 76.66% 0.104 0.307 0.017
1 Thematic 3741 42.22% 35.98 69.53% -0.02 0.5921 0.316
2 Archipelago 30 50.0% 36.9 83.33% 0.116 0.453 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 20016 44.14% 31.1 76.21% 0.067 0.2078 0.135
2 Coastline 2689 39.11% 33.28 80.96% 0.527 0.5278 0.242
2 Fragment 544 43.98% 28.83 78.31% -0.004 -0.0936 -0.158
2 Heart 358 48.69% 27.08 75.98% 0.05 -0.2974 -0.774
2 Opposite Shores 3861 36.29% 30.68 78.79% 0.254 0.3383 -0.554
2 Thematic 1747 44.7% 34.48 62.97% -0.312 0.3405 -0.203
2 Top to Top 513 44.29% 32.91 78.36% 0.003 -0.0309 0.466
3 Archipelago 26 26.92% 35.92 92.31% 0.391 -1.0338 0.231
3 Coastline 103 43.56% 28.89 73.79% 0.132 -0.3894 0.42
3 Other 458 36.64% 31.71 85.81% 0.313 0.5334 0.326
3 Round (Default) 10600 39.6% 33.4 78.5% 0.167 0.0332 0.042
3 Sunrise 67 32.81% 30.1 86.57% -0.048 0.0111 -0.286
3 Thematic 478 47.17% 35.91 67.57% 0.041 0.0639 -0.099
4 Archipelago 33 38.71% 35.61 87.88% 0.0 -0.5952 0.403
4 Coastline 67 25.37% 27.93 76.12% -0.555 -0.2775 -0.056
4 Leaf 48 52.08% 34.13 79.17% 0.692 0.011 -0.163
4 Other 315 34.63% 33.78 84.13% 0.616 -0.4334 0.933
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4597 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 -0.4042 0.0
4 Thematic 1411 34.4% 42.62 75.48% -0.567 -0.6697 0.203
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7950 32.08% 36.18 81.37% -0.027 -0.2575 0.146
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 27.38 75.0% 0.0 -1.0355 0.0
5 Coastline 18 5.56% 30.72 88.89% 0.209 -0.0109 0.0
5 Other 378 29.36% 32.57 86.24% 0.101 -0.4568 0.423
5 Thematic 40 22.5% 38.42 92.5% -0.435 -0.4918 0.99
6 Archipelago 25 13.33% 36.92 88.0% -0.205 0.0638 0.0
6 Coastline 32 0.0% 28.5 96.88% 0.174 -0.5762 0.0
6 Other 199 16.4% 36.72 77.89% -0.076 -0.4938 -0.64
6 Star 89 29.21% 26.74 71.91% -1.558 -1.5281 -1.533
6 Thematic 283 31.56% 32.48 73.5% -0.985 -0.5624 0.166
6 Two Centers (Default) 464 17.46% 27.57 83.41% -0.533 -0.5787 -1.063
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.3521 0.0
7 Other 15 40.0% 27.53 53.33% 0.0 -0.9717 -0.688

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3592 30.8 55.96% -0.213 -0.0231 -0.295
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3221 32.95 60.79% -0.092 -0.1462 -0.09
All Things Weaken 1966 29.21 50.97% -0.55 -0.1498 -0.606
Attenuated Essence 32 26.72 46.88% -0.048 0.0738 -0.372
Back Against the Wall 3072 31.32 55.37% -0.219 -0.1303 -0.337
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 56 30.04 41.07% -0.255 0.0535 -0.881
Burn Brightest Before the End 46 30.63 54.35% 0.032 0.2531 -0.051
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3446 28.73 55.72% 0.056 0.4898 -0.332
Downward Spiral 6254 26.55 61.21% -0.55 -0.2885 -0.423
Erosion of Will 3528 29.21 52.72% -0.367 -0.0344 -0.582
Intensifying Exploitation 50 25.4 50.0% -0.506 -0.1814 -0.385
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 849 35.77 79.86% 0.876 0.3465 0.215
Memory Fades to Dust 6228 26.14 56.94% -0.695 -0.2899 -0.44
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2097 29.84 55.03% -0.186 0.0572 -0.52
Promising Farmlands 3377 28.75 53.95% -0.323 0.1864 -0.738
Shattered Fragments of Power 59 34.27 52.54% 0.121 0.2097 -0.124
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 25.65 43.24% -0.483 -0.0381 -0.882
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 572 35.38 84.27% 0.461 -0.177 0.291
The Border of Life and Death 25 34.52 76.0% 0.675 0.3436 0.992
Thriving Communities 1958 30.07 56.28% 0.013 0.3923 -0.316
Thriving Crops 32 33.03 56.25% 0.308 0.2807 0.738
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 54.25% 0.0 -0.1662 -0.553
Unnatural Proliferation 2200 32.86 58.77% -0.194 0.024 -0.258
Untended Land Crumbles 1922 29.26 55.05% -0.38 -0.0973 -0.55

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25458 39.86% 31.52 77.23% -0.076 0.7734 0.034
B 29488 38.44% 32.47 78.16% 0.006 0.8206 0.186
C 27997 37.72% 32.71 79.14% 0.075 0.7584 0.228
D 25000 37.96% 32.12 78.91% 0.116 0.9388 0.177
E 13796 40.97% 32.56 77.33% 0.1 0.7462 0.194
F 23558 38.72% 31.97 78.71% 0.123 0.869 0.232
G 24416 39.97% 31.84 77.87% -0.106 0.6541 0.264
H 22559 39.09% 31.36 77.88% -0.031 0.6543 0.183
East 5159 40.36% 37.89 69.3% -0.563 0.0787 -0.383
Northeast 3496 39.68% 38.08 69.39% -0.476 0.3269 -0.692
Northwest 3405 38.91% 38.36 71.01% -0.209 0.5454 -0.805
Southeast 1117 38.72% 35.32 73.32% -0.287 0.4516 -0.283
Southwest 1097 39.84% 33.11 70.37% -0.424 0.6587 -0.226
West 5231 40.48% 37.19 68.69% -0.318 0.6304 -0.939

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4764 0.0% 19.19 73.59% -1.122 -0.2951 -0.602
Not Using Events or Tokens 13342 35.14% 24.47 79.04% -0.067 0.2652 -0.198
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3969 11.27% 37.0 93.63% 0.491 -0.0878 -0.23
Start of Game Growth 5850 15.39% 37.78 91.32% 0.299 0.0253 0.866
Unlimited Undo 11238 33.13% 33.09 84.08% 0.144 0.1337 0.649
Using Tokens but Not Events 16118 23.77% 29.21 85.91% 0.24 0.1712 -0.162

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6679 100.0% 36.48 100.0% 0.272 0.1221 0.47
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2109 100.0% 30.83 100.0% -0.28 -0.1668 -0.275
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7483 100.0% 31.31 100.0% -0.265 -0.4346 -0.357
Downpour Drenches the World 343 100.0% 27.86 100.0% -0.349 -0.1538 -0.061
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 291 100.0% 31.43 100.0% 0.806 0.0056 0.245
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7123 100.0% 32.26 100.0% 0.34 -0.2452 -0.078
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 6301 100.0% 31.55 100.0% 0.159 -0.3268 -0.346
Finder of Paths Unseen 303 100.0% 34.7 100.0% -0.25 0.4229 0.346
Fractured Days Split the Sky 719 100.0% 34.58 100.0% -0.957 -0.3103 0.48
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 768 100.0% 34.37 100.0% 0.1 0.0124 0.042
Heart of the Wildfire 2790 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.029 0.2795 -0.189
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5510 100.0% 37.28 100.0% 0.236 -0.1871 0.311
Lightning's Swift Strike 4206 119.59% 31.55 106.63% -0.09 0.1391 -0.074
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 168 33.93% 40.9 82.14% 1.354 0.693 0.687
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 506 36.51% 36.37 79.45% -0.83 -1.0512 0.92
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 675 37.58% 35.21 78.52% 0.179 0.0355 0.503
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1876 100.0% 33.67 100.0% -0.54 -0.681 -0.581
Many Minds Move as One 1266 100.0% 33.27 100.0% -0.231 -0.4171 0.365
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4631 100.0% 39.86 100.0% 0.414 0.4143 0.85
River Surges in Sunlight 5161 111.07% 37.38 104.3% -0.027 0.0199 0.329
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 671 35.87% 29.95 77.79% -0.127 0.1483 0.468
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 236 34.91% 32.67 69.07% -0.38 -0.4926 -0.836
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3870 100.0% 36.35 100.0% -0.263 -0.4772 0.218
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1680 125.69% 27.61 114.05% 0.033 0.5199 -0.378
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 86 48.19% 32.1 73.26% 0.096 0.0713 0.153
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 49 36.96% 29.33 73.47% 0.192 0.1407 -0.606
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 392 45.79% 30.68 73.47% 0.31 0.24 -0.649
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 321 48.06% 27.96 70.09% 0.105 0.1761 -0.465
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3378 101.15% 37.17 100.24% -0.369 -0.4825 0.259
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 57 31.58% 31.51 85.96% 1.081 0.6429 0.613
Shifting Memory of Ages 742 100.0% 30.42 100.0% -0.051 0.3382 -0.11
Shroud of Silent Mist 831 100.0% 29.65 100.0% 0.398 0.6996 -0.712
Starlight Seeks its Form 683 100.0% 33.89 100.0% 0.245 -0.0172 0.298
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2510 100.0% 33.62 100.0% -0.446 -0.9469 -0.19
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5299 100.0% 33.49 100.0% -0.193 -0.136 0.634
Thunderspeaker 3143 100.67% 34.51 100.48% -0.0 -0.0139 0.22
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 33 34.38% 22.55 54.55% 0.028 -0.091 -1.307
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1616 100.0% 30.75 100.0% -0.159 -0.112 -0.183
Vital Strength of the Earth 3120 110.47% 27.99 105.42% -0.023 0.5293 -0.381
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 153 44.9% 32.24 70.59% 0.238 0.51 -0.102
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 426 41.05% 29.0 70.89% -1.217 -0.3293 -0.61
Volcano Looming High 1314 100.0% 31.74 100.0% 0.419 0.4285 0.148

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.63%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.22%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.89%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.19%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15643 20.77 23.81%
II 47729 31.02 76.25%
III 41765 34.74 90.51%
IV 12911 38.04 99.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3724
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 37196
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 35569
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12753
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1473
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1254
Lose: Adversary condition 8680
Win: Sacrifice victory 300
Lose: Scenario condition 906
Win: Scenario condition 1231
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14540
Lose: Spirit destroyed 422

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.32 Win Model: -0.154

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.097 Win Model: 0.025
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 65296 40.95% 30.57 76.2%
2 29769 42.7% 31.4 76.37%
3 11693 39.73% 33.39 78.44%
4 9886 32.46% 36.97 80.7%
5 315 26.82% 30.35 84.76%
6 1089 21.6% 30.58 79.25%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-04 02:47:44 (Pacific Time)