Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1060 34.56% 30.98 -0.011 77.45% -0.388 0.1846
Dahan Insurrection 4 783 33.08% 52.89 -0.047 66.54% -0.604 -0.2032
Elemental Invocation 1 46 46.67% 34.96 0.003 78.26% -0.067 0.3983
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3470 13.54% 46.0 0.01 80.37% -0.172 0.2038
Powers Long Forgotten 1 395 57.47% 33.38 -0.05 66.33% -0.598 -0.151
Rituals of Terror 3 351 43.52% 42.89 -0.043 68.66% -0.619 0.0028
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 279 73.38% 37.37 -0.09 54.48% -0.749 -0.1242
Second Wave 0 3923 39.39% 30.45 -0.011 78.94% -0.678 -0.2596
The Great River 3 100 50.0% 32.99 -0.06 69.0% -1.249 0.2362
Ward the Shores 2 467 42.55% 36.76 -0.07 64.24% -1.058 -0.0275

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 34857 41.57% 30.7 0.001 77.35% -0.62 -0.2656
1 Thematic 2354 41.56% 37.87 -0.024 69.58% -0.148 0.3491
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11907 45.14% 31.84 -0.004 76.26% -0.394 -0.2046
2 Coastline 1335 41.6% 31.21 0.016 81.87% -0.242 -0.1074
2 Fragment 314 40.73% 29.55 0.002 78.98% -0.407 0.0184
2 Heart 207 51.27% 26.59 -0.031 71.5% -0.902 -0.6117
2 Opposite Shores 2284 35.11% 31.54 0.0 79.2% -0.547 -0.3204
2 Thematic 1088 42.99% 35.66 -0.043 65.99% -0.187 -0.1426
2 Top to Top 261 42.86% 32.0 0.001 78.54% -0.367 -0.2507
3 Coastline 40 44.74% 34.98 0.007 80.0% -0.119 -0.1573
3 Other 255 39.92% 34.63 0.035 87.06% 0.157 0.5593
3 Round (Default) 6228 38.42% 34.1 0.007 79.46% -0.106 -0.0752
3 Sunrise 40 33.33% 30.57 -0.001 80.0% -0.299 -0.5519
3 Thematic 319 41.82% 36.84 -0.035 68.34% 0.069 -0.2702
4 Coastline 24 20.83% 31.17 0.026 87.5% -0.035 0.0874
4 Leaf 24 33.33% 39.04 0.03 83.33% 0.34 0.4196
4 Other 192 35.83% 37.01 0.024 83.33% 0.276 0.3572
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 0.097 100.0% 0.301 -0.4914
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 -0.02 66.67% -0.058 0.0678
4 Thematic 1024 33.76% 44.54 0.002 75.59% 0.739 -0.3391
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4946 31.5% 36.33 0.012 81.32% 0.055 0.0224
5 Other 65 34.92% 39.29 0.076 93.85% 1.293 1.0763
5 Thematic 9 22.22% 35.56 0.12 100.0% 1.257 -1.5106

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2235 31.3 -0.113 55.93% -1.762 0.3058
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1999 33.19 -0.089 61.13% -1.567 0.3497
All Things Weaken 886 29.31 -0.133 52.14% -2.057 0.103
Back Against the Wall 1954 31.48 -0.121 54.25% -1.856 0.2363
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2154 29.01 -0.12 54.69% -1.854 0.3677
Downward Spiral 3792 27.0 -0.097 61.5% -1.732 0.2827
Erosion of Will 2157 29.52 -0.133 52.2% -1.997 0.2146
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 387 34.81 -0.011 77.52% -0.714 -0.002
Memory Fades to Dust 3847 26.53 -0.123 56.51% -1.984 0.2319
Power Corrodes the Spirit 931 29.81 -0.111 55.85% -1.798 0.2223
Promising Farmlands 2133 29.18 -0.12 54.38% -1.838 0.3764
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 252 36.12 0.007 81.35% -0.51 -0.0933
Thriving Communities 864 30.56 -0.11 56.6% -1.779 0.3284
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 -0.12 54.25% -1.796 0.4203
Unnatural Proliferation 1029 32.53 -0.097 58.6% -1.653 0.4269
Untended Land Crumbles 839 29.44 -0.119 54.59% -1.887 0.2082

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8143 42.89% 30.22 -0.009 75.84% 0.246 -0.8271
B 9870 39.75% 33.0 0.006 78.6% 0.469 -0.6949
C 9638 39.24% 31.88 0.007 79.06% 0.5 -0.8967
D 8331 39.63% 31.7 0.003 78.41% 0.393 -0.7651
E 3158 46.21% 32.49 -0.003 75.84% 0.435 -0.8218
F 7887 41.01% 31.63 0.006 78.69% 0.513 -0.7128
G 8681 41.5% 32.19 0.003 77.76% 0.468 -0.7445
H 7462 40.39% 31.27 0.001 77.62% 0.413 -0.8086
East 791 42.15% 40.97 -0.023 69.66% -0.406 -1.3417
Northeast 965 43.76% 38.12 -0.038 66.32% -0.615 -1.4843
Northwest 1428 34.59% 40.2 -0.011 73.74% -0.437 -1.3821
Southeast 242 43.39% 35.1 -0.027 70.25% -0.596 -1.5795
Southwest 246 42.68% 32.61 -0.024 71.14% -0.526 -1.1508
West 936 42.27% 38.14 -0.049 64.96% -0.804 -1.4694

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2780 0.0% 19.79 -0.047 76.91% -1.666 0.373
Not Using Events or Tokens 7152 36.79% 24.55 0.002 79.47% -0.178 0.0422
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2444 11.4% 39.1 0.052 94.27% 0.934 0.2279
Start of Game Growth 3586 14.92% 39.66 0.05 91.97% 0.74 0.2806
Unlimited Undo 6360 35.01% 34.21 0.024 84.29% 0.333 -0.069
Using Tokens but Not Events 8794 25.68% 29.12 0.034 86.7% 0.223 0.1767

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3894 28.38% 37.0 0.022 82.85% 0.188 0.3349
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1415 52.09% 31.83 -0.027 71.1% -0.34 -0.1039
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4527 39.13% 32.69 -0.007 76.54% -0.122 -0.2079
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4264 30.66% 32.95 0.018 83.09% 0.112 -0.2567
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3846 34.4% 31.83 0.003 79.75% -0.091 -0.3236
Fractured Days Split the Sky 281 43.73% 36.76 0.02 81.14% 0.243 0.5768
Heart of the Wildfire 1856 54.79% 33.69 -0.021 71.23% -0.132 0.215
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3476 34.05% 38.13 0.02 81.59% 0.237 -0.0611
Lightning's Swift Strike 3238 40.21% 33.42 -0.001 77.61% -0.064 0.2049
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 464 44.81% 34.65 -0.001 76.94% 0.023 -0.3378
Many Minds Move as One 574 39.23% 34.33 0.021 82.75% 0.241 -0.272
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2885 35.27% 39.93 0.026 81.87% 0.434 0.2365
River Surges in Sunlight 3383 35.49% 37.52 0.005 79.01% -0.026 0.141
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2529 38.98% 37.63 0.001 76.87% 0.081 0.23
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1434 48.15% 29.21 -0.028 72.66% -0.496 -0.0471
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2158 37.04% 38.25 0.011 80.03% 0.085 0.0208
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1440 45.37% 34.03 -0.003 75.42% -0.047 -0.0657
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3151 32.17% 34.7 0.021 83.69% 0.188 0.4028
Thunderspeaker 1910 40.67% 35.68 0.002 77.23% 0.069 0.1285
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 951 63.06% 30.13 -0.041 66.35% -0.4 -0.3638
Vital Strength of the Earth 2072 33.4% 29.34 -0.018 76.16% -0.512 0.3529
Volcano Looming High 155 48.7% 34.07 0.006 77.42% 0.174 0.0732

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.6%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.16%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.66%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.12%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8602 22.34 25.54%
II 27390 30.71 76.02%
III 24338 34.23 90.37%
IV 7448 37.48 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2197
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21617
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20275
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7360
Lose: Invader deck ran out 726
Lose: Adversary condition 5303
Win: Sacrifice victory 156
Lose: Scenario condition 578
Win: Scenario condition 821
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8478
Lose: Spirit destroyed 267

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.514 Win Model: -0.222

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.003 Win Model: -0.101
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 37229 41.57% 31.16 76.86%
2 17431 43.37% 31.91 76.5%
3 6882 38.64% 34.25 79.22%
4 6236 31.86% 37.67 80.58%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.052 Win Model: -1.01
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 64477 32.95 77.65%
Power Progression 3301 18.97 71.43%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)