Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 24 41.67% 29.83 66.67% 0.379 0.0247 0.0
Blitz 0 1583 33.15% 30.34 78.46% -0.249 0.2757 -0.073
Dahan Insurrection 4 1089 31.8% 52.53 69.7% 0.325 0.4493 0.393
Despicable Theft 2 116 47.41% 34.26 77.59% -1.111 -0.6098 0.1
Elemental Invocation 1 236 53.19% 33.0 75.42% 0.489 1.1011 -0.74
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5316 13.96% 46.59 80.89% 0.12 0.2863 0.653
Powers Long Forgotten 1 552 57.8% 32.8 66.85% -0.741 -0.1686 -0.11
Rituals of Terror 3 492 45.9% 42.72 70.53% -0.387 -0.561 0.045
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 388 75.45% 37.07 56.44% 0.502 0.7496 -0.043
Second Wave 0 6160 38.34% 30.07 79.03% -0.726 -0.2061 -0.349
The Great River 3 259 51.94% 32.19 67.18% -0.412 1.274 -0.422
Varied Terrains 2 40 52.5% 37.8 77.5% -0.183 0.5475 0.426
Ward the Shores 2 660 42.24% 36.15 66.36% -0.328 0.516 -0.305

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 58274 41.06% 30.64 77.69% 0.245 0.915 0.159
1 Thematic 3595 42.41% 36.26 70.43% 0.06 1.1225 0.364
2 Archipelago 27 51.85% 37.93 85.19% -0.247 0.935 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18914 44.32% 31.53 77.12% 0.018 0.5473 0.176
2 Coastline 2527 39.83% 33.38 81.52% 0.8 1.0356 0.238
2 Fragment 511 43.09% 29.0 79.45% 0.21 0.3834 0.033
2 Heart 336 49.53% 27.4 76.79% -0.197 0.41 -0.886
2 Opposite Shores 3674 36.51% 31.0 79.34% -0.529 -0.0151 -0.551
2 Thematic 1625 45.23% 35.31 64.55% -0.904 0.083 -0.201
2 Top to Top 486 43.76% 33.13 79.84% -0.023 0.219 0.598
3 Archipelago 24 29.17% 36.17 91.67% 0.256 0.5476 0.212
3 Coastline 92 44.44% 31.45 81.52% 0.496 0.6452 0.252
3 Other 440 36.55% 32.12 86.59% 0.291 -0.4166 0.241
3 Round (Default) 9939 39.23% 33.8 79.64% -0.034 0.252 0.068
3 Sunrise 64 32.79% 30.38 87.5% 0.0 -0.0658 -0.29
3 Thematic 450 46.55% 36.54 68.0% -0.395 0.1193 -0.209
4 Archipelago 33 38.71% 35.61 87.88% 0.031 0.2369 0.387
4 Coastline 62 24.19% 29.37 80.65% 0.572 0.0552 0.261
4 Leaf 44 47.73% 31.89 77.27% 0.0 0.1492 -0.189
4 Other 305 35.45% 34.26 84.92% 0.84 0.3937 0.888
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1380 34.67% 43.1 76.3% 0.546 0.704 0.113
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7655 31.86% 36.48 82.19% -0.336 -0.064 0.094
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 27.38 75.0% 0.0 -0.2769 0.0
5 Coastline 15 6.67% 35.27 100.0% 0.052 -0.6173 0.0
5 Other 296 29.75% 34.73 90.2% 0.202 -0.4235 0.617
5 Thematic 35 25.71% 40.63 100.0% 0.219 -0.2222 1.16
6 Archipelago 22 7.69% 38.5 90.91% -0.392 -0.4139 0.0
6 Coastline 23 0.0% 29.13 100.0% 0.198 -0.6075 0.0
6 Other 150 17.12% 34.75 78.67% -0.481 -0.7569 -0.802
6 Star 72 27.78% 29.69 79.17% -1.385 -0.7297 -1.467
6 Thematic 230 32.75% 34.63 79.57% -0.409 -0.5168 0.606
6 Two Centers (Default) 365 19.53% 30.08 89.59% 0.052 0.5171 -1.183
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.0 0.3537 0.0
7 Other 15 40.0% 27.53 53.33% 0.131 -0.1993 -0.715

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3485 31.01 56.13% -1.336 0.6116 -0.452
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3112 33.13 61.15% -1.02 0.7263 -0.228
All Things Weaken 1853 29.49 51.65% -1.982 0.0914 -0.723
Back Against the Wall 2945 31.45 55.48% -0.94 0.9647 -0.459
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3299 28.85 55.74% -1.742 0.3538 -0.504
Downward Spiral 5996 26.69 61.71% -1.481 0.393 -0.571
Erosion of Will 3386 29.42 52.98% -1.502 0.6215 -0.74
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 804 36.08 79.73% -0.494 0.0703 0.069
Memory Fades to Dust 5986 26.34 57.43% -1.736 0.3282 -0.573
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1963 30.25 55.27% -1.564 0.3463 -0.686
Promising Farmlands 3268 28.91 54.01% -1.512 0.5119 -0.897
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 540 35.81 84.63% -0.375 0.0064 0.132
Thriving Communities 1835 30.15 56.29% -1.502 0.5501 -0.433
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 54.25% 0.0 0.0 -0.705
Unnatural Proliferation 2084 32.99 59.36% -1.125 0.8205 -0.415
Untended Land Crumbles 1804 29.54 55.76% -1.536 0.4764 -0.73

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 24003 40.01% 31.9 78.22% 0.111 0.831 0.033
B 27897 38.56% 32.93 79.14% -0.039 0.6416 0.236
C 26471 37.84% 33.11 80.17% 0.075 0.5369 0.261
D 23609 38.07% 32.52 79.93% 0.063 0.7322 0.202
E 12619 41.54% 33.16 78.75% 0.263 0.8018 0.269
F 22265 38.84% 32.38 79.69% 0.16 0.7917 0.279
G 23123 40.08% 32.3 78.96% 0.244 0.8262 0.331
H 21266 39.24% 31.79 78.97% 0.215 0.8354 0.201
East 4851 40.59% 38.76 70.85% -0.028 0.5639 -0.284
Northeast 3299 40.05% 38.99 70.96% -0.085 0.5803 -0.541
Northwest 3225 39.26% 39.11 72.31% -0.259 0.2118 -0.708
Southeast 996 39.31% 36.42 75.8% -0.473 0.2529 -0.117
Southwest 988 41.0% 34.14 72.77% 0.047 1.0331 -0.144
West 4951 40.86% 37.87 70.01% -0.067 0.6633 -0.998

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4493 0.0% 19.5 75.05% -2.148 0.045 -0.881
Not Using Events or Tokens 12687 35.44% 24.82 80.03% -0.059 0.1717 -0.204
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3765 11.29% 37.5 94.56% 0.787 -0.419 -0.228
Start of Game Growth 5571 15.36% 38.33 92.17% 0.971 0.5411 0.754
Unlimited Undo 10556 33.21% 33.59 85.48% 0.304 -0.1752 0.734
Using Tokens but Not Events 15128 23.85% 29.54 87.02% 0.053 0.2009 -0.065

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6330 100.0% 36.8 100.0% -0.387 -0.5049 0.437
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2022 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.974 -0.902 -0.324
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7082 100.0% 31.9 100.0% 0.507 0.2992 -0.285
Downpour Drenches the World 220 100.0% 30.92 100.0% -0.418 -0.0731 -0.501
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6749 100.0% 32.6 100.0% 0.292 -0.212 -0.175
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5996 100.0% 31.8 100.0% 0.328 -0.1692 -0.397
Finder of Paths Unseen 207 100.0% 38.5 100.0% 0.214 0.5944 0.356
Fractured Days Split the Sky 664 100.0% 36.07 100.0% -0.311 -0.2661 0.543
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 661 100.0% 35.92 100.0% 0.46 0.3872 -0.021
Heart of the Wildfire 2652 100.0% 32.75 100.0% -0.706 -0.3908 -0.17
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5277 100.0% 37.61 100.0% 0.157 -0.3802 0.297
Lightning's Swift Strike 4016 117.41% 32.04 105.35% -0.457 -0.1194 -0.139
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 98 39.8% 36.95 84.69% 0.79 -0.027 0.447
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 467 37.72% 37.73 82.44% -0.177 -0.6715 0.945
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 608 38.23% 35.95 80.59% 0.402 -0.1751 0.431
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1709 100.0% 34.55 100.0% -0.093 -0.1658 -0.63
Many Minds Move as One 1183 100.0% 34.03 100.0% -0.036 -0.6435 0.406
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4438 100.0% 40.19 100.0% 0.357 0.2275 0.816
River Surges in Sunlight 4971 109.61% 37.73 103.18% -0.122 -0.2412 0.283
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 620 36.29% 30.67 79.19% -0.091 0.3409 0.486
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 149 38.51% 39.01 80.54% 0.148 -0.2519 -0.231
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3698 100.0% 36.88 100.0% 0.253 0.1484 0.228
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1598 124.08% 28.12 112.95% -0.656 -0.1972 -0.4
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 52 46.0% 37.31 76.92% -0.64 -0.5982 0.524
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 36 45.45% 29.61 77.78% 0.396 0.5023 -0.597
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 374 45.33% 30.67 73.26% 0.019 0.0355 -0.69
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 297 48.6% 27.99 70.71% 0.159 0.1461 -0.501
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3274 100.0% 37.52 100.0% -0.087 -0.2853 0.243
Shifting Memory of Ages 621 100.0% 31.33 100.0% 0.386 0.5735 -0.176
Shroud of Silent Mist 734 100.0% 30.47 100.0% 0.425 0.6222 -0.719
Starlight Seeks its Form 550 100.0% 35.08 100.0% -0.198 -0.2569 0.26
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2377 100.0% 34.16 100.0% 0.106 -0.153 -0.231
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4991 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.749 0.8196 0.651
Thunderspeaker 3005 100.0% 34.98 100.0% 0.258 0.1959 0.183
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1550 100.0% 31.0 100.0% -0.098 -0.3708 -0.272
Vital Strength of the Earth 2961 109.46% 28.47 104.09% -0.277 0.578 -0.408
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 96 42.39% 33.71 78.13% -0.419 0.1353 0.056
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 393 41.09% 30.46 74.55% -0.478 0.7074 -0.689
Volcano Looming High 1193 100.0% 32.19 100.0% 0.322 0.2938 0.104

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.56%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.14%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.85%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.15%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13750 22.68 26.01%
II 45556 31.11 76.62%
III 40044 34.69 90.53%
IV 12362 37.95 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3575
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 35667
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 34108
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12213
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1205
Lose: Adversary condition 8293
Win: Sacrifice victory 283
Lose: Scenario condition 868
Win: Scenario condition 1195
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13894
Lose: Spirit destroyed 411

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.498 Win Model: -0.24

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.115 Win Model: 0.169
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 61994 41.18% 30.97 77.23%
2 28109 42.93% 31.8 77.26%
3 10979 39.37% 33.8 79.56%
4 9531 32.32% 37.32 81.51%
5 236 26.91% 33.07 90.68%
6 863 23.2% 32.02 84.13%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-01 02:38:30 (Pacific Time)