Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 19 47.37% 26.11 57.89% -0.642 -0.5337 0.0
Blitz 0 1495 33.33% 30.35 78.06% -0.237 0.0297 -0.152
Dahan Insurrection 4 1047 32.41% 52.54 68.96% -0.765 -0.4321 0.374
Despicable Theft 2 105 44.76% 34.65 80.0% 0.843 1.094 -0.117
Elemental Invocation 1 218 52.07% 33.08 74.31% -0.479 0.169 -0.726
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5112 13.89% 46.52 80.91% -0.355 -0.1895 0.629
Powers Long Forgotten 1 533 58.37% 32.81 66.79% 0.206 0.5316 -0.232
Rituals of Terror 3 470 45.06% 42.48 70.21% 0.636 0.5265 0.042
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 376 75.2% 37.01 55.59% -0.396 0.2612 -0.019
Second Wave 0 5878 38.67% 30.06 79.07% -0.426 0.045 -0.305
The Great River 3 250 51.41% 31.89 66.8% -0.629 0.8715 -0.419
Varied Terrains 2 21 47.62% 38.67 80.95% -0.216 0.3191 1.03
Ward the Shores 2 639 42.25% 36.25 66.04% -1.24 -0.0524 -0.234

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3340 30.93 56.2% -1.638 0.1939 -0.459
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2965 33.08 61.21% -1.504 0.1502 -0.268
All Things Weaken 1711 29.25 51.72% -2.29 -0.3135 -0.732
Back Against the Wall 2821 31.35 55.3% -1.803 0.0553 -0.442
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3169 28.83 55.7% -1.714 0.2605 -0.503
Downward Spiral 5708 26.66 61.76% -1.763 0.1392 -0.613
Erosion of Will 3211 29.31 52.76% -1.311 0.7329 -0.768
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 743 35.63 79.68% -0.977 -0.4046 0.104
Memory Fades to Dust 5733 26.33 57.47% -1.798 0.1813 -0.59
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1817 30.16 55.31% -1.987 -0.0953 -0.618
Promising Farmlands 3114 28.86 53.92% -2.015 0.0235 -0.908
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 500 36.23 84.8% 0.443 0.8838 0.189
Thriving Communities 1677 29.96 56.35% -1.552 0.4124 -0.413
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 54.25% 0.0 0.489 -0.707
Unnatural Proliferation 1947 32.87 59.42% -1.42 0.4855 -0.452
Untended Land Crumbles 1666 29.5 55.7% -1.815 0.2196 -0.733

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 22764 40.14% 31.9 78.16% -0.051 0.7171 0.059
B 26484 38.62% 32.95 79.22% 0.198 0.8903 0.25
C 24989 37.88% 33.08 80.2% 0.338 0.9025 0.275
D 22346 38.09% 32.56 79.96% 0.015 0.7832 0.212
E 11510 42.05% 33.0 78.58% 0.004 0.6033 0.237
F 21020 38.98% 32.34 79.65% 0.08 0.7899 0.308
G 21930 40.02% 32.29 78.93% 0.037 0.7626 0.354
H 20084 39.31% 31.77 78.95% -0.203 0.4877 0.227
East 4604 40.63% 38.8 71.0% 0.147 0.7698 -0.298
Northeast 3145 40.2% 39.04 70.75% -0.697 -0.0153 -0.585
Northwest 3050 39.32% 39.0 72.16% -0.534 0.5329 -0.699
Southeast 920 39.69% 36.37 75.76% 0.185 0.9131 -0.238
Southwest 901 41.58% 34.08 72.7% 0.702 1.6731 -0.059
West 4663 40.88% 37.84 70.23% -0.869 0.1343 -1.03

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4256 0.0% 19.46 75.35% -2.023 -0.0118 -0.935
Not Using Events or Tokens 12004 35.63% 24.76 80.11% -0.077 0.1373 -0.149
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3579 11.08% 37.53 94.5% 0.198 0.1045 -0.398
Start of Game Growth 5297 15.17% 38.51 92.18% 0.965 0.2576 0.732
Unlimited Undo 9960 33.31% 33.54 85.53% 0.652 -0.0478 0.767
Using Tokens but Not Events 14166 23.78% 29.53 87.24% 0.142 0.0961 0.05

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.54%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.15%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.83%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.15%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12989 22.6 26.08%
II 43157 31.02 76.62%
III 37944 34.59 90.53%
IV 11715 37.83 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3387
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 33791
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 32308
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11574
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1138
Lose: Adversary condition 7805
Win: Sacrifice victory 269
Lose: Scenario condition 834
Win: Scenario condition 1142
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13161
Lose: Spirit destroyed 396

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.077 Win Model: 0.278
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 58791 41.19% 30.92 77.29%
2 26629 43.18% 31.78 77.26%
3 10404 39.34% 33.76 79.63%
4 9155 32.0% 37.4 81.58%
5 190 23.33% 31.29 91.58%
6 636 24.84% 31.42 82.86%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)