Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 39 33.33% 23.95 61.54% -0.62 -0.8973 -1.063
Blitz 0 1685 32.53% 29.87 77.92% 0.109 0.287 -0.059
Dahan Insurrection 4 1147 30.88% 51.43 68.7% -0.219 -0.613 0.385
Despicable Theft 2 139 45.32% 32.47 71.22% -0.492 0.3039 0.16
Elemental Invocation 1 272 50.55% 31.35 72.43% -0.257 0.4617 -0.786
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5543 13.94% 46.5 80.43% 0.803 0.1627 0.763
Powers Long Forgotten 1 601 55.39% 31.6 64.56% -0.677 -0.0395 -0.137
Rituals of Terror 3 512 45.28% 41.78 69.14% -1.2 -1.048 0.077
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 407 73.4% 35.97 55.04% -1.105 -0.0255 0.017
Second Wave 0 6505 38.11% 29.82 78.63% 0.082 0.1488 -0.276
The Great River 3 296 49.49% 29.62 61.49% -1.985 -0.7361 -0.52
Varied Terrains 2 83 38.55% 29.75 59.04% -0.973 -0.3402 -0.784
Ward the Shores 2 694 41.46% 35.37 65.27% -0.646 0.4432 -0.312

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 61951 40.78% 30.16 76.47% 0.064 0.1597 0.111
1 Thematic 3762 42.2% 35.91 69.43% -0.206 0.3031 0.426
2 Archipelago 31 48.39% 35.71 80.65% -0.196 0.083 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 20202 44.1% 31.05 76.08% 0.109 0.2076 0.177
2 Coastline 2728 39.17% 33.17 80.61% 0.293 0.1624 0.313
2 Fragment 549 43.94% 28.73 78.51% -0.003 -0.2585 -0.12
2 Heart 360 48.7% 27.13 76.11% 0.307 0.0201 -0.734
2 Opposite Shores 3902 36.13% 30.58 78.55% 0.162 0.2019 -0.514
2 Thematic 1785 44.14% 34.24 62.8% -0.225 0.189 -0.147
2 Top to Top 516 44.02% 32.88 78.29% 0.423 0.277 0.525
3 Archipelago 26 26.92% 35.92 92.31% 0.417 -1.1679 0.236
3 Coastline 109 43.93% 28.24 72.48% 0.634 0.0732 0.81
3 Other 461 36.4% 31.61 85.68% 0.313 0.8673 0.346
3 Round (Default) 10713 39.63% 33.34 78.4% 0.173 0.0477 0.04
3 Sunrise 67 32.81% 30.1 86.57% 0.092 0.3626 -0.286
3 Thematic 485 47.31% 35.85 67.22% 0.105 0.1753 -0.166
4 Archipelago 34 37.5% 36.35 88.24% 0.348 -0.2249 0.398
4 Coastline 68 25.0% 27.93 76.47% -0.422 -0.2312 -0.07
4 Leaf 48 52.08% 34.13 79.17% 0.482 0.1099 -0.184
4 Other 315 34.63% 33.78 84.13% 0.215 -0.8439 0.922
4 Reverse Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 66.67% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 -0.3595 0.0
4 Thematic 1421 34.51% 42.54 75.16% -0.665 -0.9662 0.169
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7997 32.09% 36.12 81.22% -0.075 -0.2101 0.08
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 27.38 75.0% 0.0 -1.1464 0.0
5 Coastline 19 5.26% 30.58 89.47% 0.361 -0.3187 0.0
5 Other 388 29.92% 32.15 84.54% -0.258 -0.5222 0.362
5 Thematic 40 22.5% 38.42 92.5% -1.064 -0.9762 0.965
6 Archipelago 26 12.5% 35.5 84.62% -0.859 -0.5106 0.0
6 Coastline 32 0.0% 28.5 96.88% -0.066 -0.7772 0.0
6 Other 207 16.75% 37.63 78.74% 0.155 -0.2589 -0.688
6 Star 91 28.57% 26.59 72.53% -1.133 -1.2122 -1.612
6 Thematic 292 31.62% 32.28 72.6% -0.911 -0.6485 0.105
6 Two Centers (Default) 490 17.77% 27.31 82.45% -0.429 -0.3481 -1.198
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.0811 0.0
7 Other 17 41.18% 25.82 52.94% -0.4 -1.0559 -1.047

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3614 30.84 55.95% -0.184 0.0462 -0.257
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3240 32.94 60.77% -0.094 -0.1534 -0.065
All Things Weaken 1980 29.18 50.96% -0.517 -0.1393 -0.59
Attenuated Essence 41 26.0 48.78% 0.028 0.1082 -0.445
Back Against the Wall 3087 31.27 55.39% -0.209 -0.1596 -0.311
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 71 31.54 43.66% 0.031 0.2278 -0.864
Burn Brightest Before the End 55 30.38 52.73% 0.153 0.3461 -0.28
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3466 28.71 55.65% -0.04 0.3729 -0.31
Downward Spiral 6294 26.52 61.07% -0.51 -0.267 -0.401
Erosion of Will 3547 29.17 52.55% -0.396 -0.0875 -0.554
Intensifying Exploitation 66 28.71 56.06% -0.009 0.2699 0.259
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 861 35.75 79.67% 1.08 0.5739 0.198
Memory Fades to Dust 6262 26.08 56.87% -0.595 -0.2515 -0.414
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2116 29.83 55.01% -0.27 -0.0343 -0.487
Promising Farmlands 3410 28.73 54.02% -0.094 0.3597 -0.714
Shattered Fragments of Power 66 34.35 54.55% 0.288 0.3406 0.031
Slow Dissolution of Will 48 26.52 43.75% -0.525 -0.135 -0.972
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 576 35.41 84.38% 0.939 0.2289 0.308
The Border of Life and Death 27 35.33 77.78% 0.726 0.3494 1.015
Thriving Communities 1983 29.94 56.08% -0.072 0.2752 -0.289
Thriving Crops 35 32.91 57.14% 0.243 0.0418 0.631
Tipping Point 1071 29.83 54.25% 0.0 0.0 -0.527
Unnatural Proliferation 2221 32.82 58.67% -0.293 -0.0984 -0.233
Untended Land Crumbles 1941 29.24 54.97% -0.416 -0.149 -0.517

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25717 39.85% 31.45 77.05% -0.247 0.5107 0.037
B 29764 38.41% 32.41 78.02% -0.101 0.6379 0.181
C 28261 37.69% 32.66 79.0% -0.023 0.5645 0.232
D 25230 37.92% 32.04 78.77% -0.053 0.6625 0.172
E 14010 40.88% 32.43 77.04% -0.042 0.533 0.171
F 23800 38.72% 31.87 78.5% -0.114 0.5621 0.228
G 24659 39.92% 31.77 77.67% -0.263 0.3962 0.253
H 22773 39.0% 31.3 77.71% -0.157 0.419 0.175
East 5232 40.27% 37.74 69.02% -0.702 -0.1396 -0.431
Northeast 3555 39.53% 37.86 69.06% -0.489 0.1769 -0.713
Northwest 3461 38.74% 38.15 70.59% -0.355 0.4594 -0.813
Southeast 1132 38.65% 35.24 73.14% -0.251 0.4723 -0.294
Southwest 1115 39.55% 32.89 69.96% -0.734 0.2696 -0.279
West 5300 40.33% 37.03 68.42% -0.436 0.4858 -0.93

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4800 0.0% 19.11 73.33% -1.089 -0.3191 -0.563
Not Using Events or Tokens 13442 35.09% 24.39 78.77% -0.218 0.1572 -0.197
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3998 11.32% 36.94 93.55% 0.739 0.1007 -0.3
Start of Game Growth 5901 15.4% 37.67 91.14% 0.116 -0.1953 0.834
Unlimited Undo 11375 33.1% 32.95 83.75% 0.154 0.1307 0.628
Using Tokens but Not Events 16289 23.73% 29.18 85.77% 0.282 0.2753 -0.18

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6732 100.0% 36.47 100.0% 0.371 0.2261 0.507
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2130 100.0% 30.7 100.0% -0.271 -0.1382 -0.25
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7539 100.0% 31.22 100.0% -0.228 -0.3672 -0.324
Downpour Drenches the World 362 100.0% 27.96 100.0% -0.242 -0.0552 -0.062
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 341 100.0% 30.61 100.0% 0.626 -0.1559 0.286
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7190 100.0% 32.2 100.0% 0.289 -0.3014 -0.043
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 6345 100.0% 31.52 100.0% 0.155 -0.3382 -0.318
Finder of Paths Unseen 329 100.0% 34.52 100.0% -0.052 0.6176 0.37
Fractured Days Split the Sky 724 100.0% 34.56 100.0% -0.803 -0.2138 0.527
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 790 100.0% 34.37 100.0% 0.206 0.1255 0.019
Heart of the Wildfire 2807 100.0% 32.25 100.0% 0.12 0.3554 -0.162
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5555 100.0% 37.21 100.0% 0.239 -0.1997 0.334
Lightning's Swift Strike 4236 119.82% 31.48 106.87% 0.0 0.1953 -0.043
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 179 33.52% 41.56 81.56% 1.113 0.6131 0.651
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 511 36.95% 36.33 79.26% -0.721 -0.8937 0.919
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 689 37.74% 34.78 77.94% -0.015 -0.12 0.508
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1910 100.0% 33.59 100.0% -0.36 -0.4963 -0.562
Many Minds Move as One 1282 100.0% 33.11 100.0% -0.158 -0.369 0.291
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4672 100.0% 39.78 100.0% 0.076 0.0381 0.856
River Surges in Sunlight 5205 111.33% 37.29 104.42% -0.119 -0.0506 0.358
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 683 36.17% 29.84 77.89% 0.001 0.2936 0.504
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 257 34.78% 32.67 69.26% -0.144 -0.2802 -0.765
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3904 100.0% 36.25 100.0% -0.124 -0.3469 0.226
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1711 125.46% 27.46 113.97% -0.312 0.2004 -0.486
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 86 48.19% 32.1 73.26% 0.176 0.1037 0.099
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 51 37.5% 28.71 70.59% -0.412 -0.4947 -0.658
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 396 45.83% 30.6 73.74% 0.959 0.9426 -0.608
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 324 48.24% 27.95 70.06% 0.026 0.1877 -0.461
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3403 101.44% 37.08 100.5% -0.198 -0.3846 0.254
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 73 32.88% 29.18 76.71% 0.514 0.1028 0.263
Shifting Memory of Ages 753 100.0% 30.42 100.0% 0.02 0.3679 -0.073
Shroud of Silent Mist 848 100.0% 29.64 100.0% 0.323 0.5721 -0.668
Starlight Seeks its Form 710 100.0% 33.83 100.0% 0.582 0.3323 0.384
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2548 100.0% 33.49 100.0% -0.433 -0.9248 -0.194
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5338 100.0% 33.41 100.0% -0.201 -0.1269 0.656
Thunderspeaker 3169 100.73% 34.42 100.54% -0.079 -0.1115 0.246
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 36 34.29% 21.97 52.78% -0.006 -0.0671 -1.287
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1634 100.0% 30.64 100.0% -0.238 -0.1583 -0.148
Vital Strength of the Earth 3144 110.83% 27.87 105.66% -0.293 0.2281 -0.361
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 167 44.72% 32.08 70.66% 0.149 0.4077 -0.147
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 435 40.89% 28.81 70.34% -0.891 -0.0631 -0.68
Volcano Looming High 1345 100.0% 31.75 100.0% 0.361 0.3245 0.158

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call on Herders for Aid 82.67%
Gift of Searing Heat 84.26%
Stinging Sandstorm 90.89%
Sweltering Exhaustion 97.2%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15992 20.44 23.47%
II 48107 31.01 76.18%
III 42087 34.76 90.51%
IV 12991 38.06 99.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3753
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 37482
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 35821
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12833
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1790
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1261
Lose: Adversary condition 8727
Win: Sacrifice victory 301
Lose: Scenario condition 912
Win: Scenario condition 1239
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14634
Lose: Spirit destroyed 424

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.236 Win Model: -0.156

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.15 Win Model: 0.037
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 65867 40.9% 30.49 76.02%
2 30084 42.61% 31.33 76.21%
3 11818 39.76% 33.32 78.32%
4 9945 32.48% 36.92 80.53%
5 327 27.39% 29.82 82.57%
6 1136 21.78% 30.52 78.79%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)