Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
85731	40.65%	32.08	77.7%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	30798	26.71%	20.96	0.000	89.24%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	629	32.48%	30.0	0.05	90.14%	0.088	0.377
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	482	38.46%	34.01	0.027	85.27%	-0.308	0.1058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	603	55.67%	38.21	-0.007	77.11%	-0.757	0.1259
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	650	62.69%	38.25	-0.048	68.15%	-1.207	0.0354
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	417	85.58%	37.94	-0.128	49.4%	-1.686	-0.1898
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	160	84.38%	38.48	-0.172	40.63%	-2.096	-0.1574
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	795	88.66%	37.8	-0.21	33.21%	-2.46	-0.4173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2767	29.19%	25.48	0.048	90.64%	0.031	0.0722
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	2077	30.3%	30.21	0.044	89.89%	-0.003	-0.0214

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	1257	33.74%	30.79	-0.009	78.04%	-0.351	0.2144
Dahan Insurrection	4	926	31.53%	52.73	-0.042	68.57%	-0.601	-0.2004
Despicable Theft	2	57	40.35%	35.05	0.009	82.46%	-0.261	0.0133
Elemental Invocation	1	143	52.82%	33.86	0.002	78.32%	-0.051	0.451
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	4270	13.43%	46.28	0.012	81.24%	-0.122	0.2433
Powers Long Forgotten	1	478	59.02%	32.96	-0.053	65.69%	-0.616	-0.1696
Rituals of Terror	3	419	43.86%	41.97	-0.044	68.74%	-0.643	0.0019
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	326	74.77%	36.85	-0.09	54.6%	-0.749	-0.1022
Second Wave	0	4858	39.17%	30.16	-0.015	78.59%	-0.71	-0.2797
The Great River	3	185	47.83%	32.1	-0.073	65.95%	-1.347	0.126
Ward the Shores	2	544	42.41%	36.51	-0.069	64.89%	-1.049	-0.0169

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	44399	41.18%	30.6	0.001	77.72%	-0.564	-0.4778
1	Thematic	2972	42.12%	36.52	-0.026	69.58%	-0.501	-0.2243
2	Archipelago	6	66.67%	48.0	0.129	100.0%	0.724	0.7306
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	14914	44.7%	31.71	-0.004	76.69%	-0.363	-0.337
2	Coastline	1825	42.67%	31.84	0.008	79.95%	-0.277	-0.302
2	Fragment	395	41.21%	29.12	0.007	80.51%	-0.33	-0.1073
2	Heart	254	51.64%	26.91	-0.019	74.02%	-0.677	-0.5771
2	Opposite Shores	2881	35.98%	30.88	0.0	79.73%	-0.489	-0.4239
2	Thematic	1272	43.69%	35.56	-0.04	67.06%	-0.466	-0.5322
2	Top to Top	345	41.19%	32.92	0.011	80.58%	-0.177	-0.246

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	2737	30.79	-0.117	55.54%	-1.837	0.2324
Aid From Lesser Spirits	2462	33.12	-0.089	61.29%	-1.585	0.3278
All Things Weaken	1269	29.44	-0.134	52.25%	-2.074	0.085
Back Against the Wall	2354	31.49	-0.117	55.48%	-1.836	0.251
Disintegrating Ecosystem	2634	29.0	-0.116	55.62%	-1.832	0.3897
Downward Spiral	4719	26.69	-0.1	61.24%	-1.784	0.2377
Erosion of Will	2625	29.09	-0.135	52.11%	-2.05	0.158
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	568	35.56	-0.005	79.4%	-0.673	0.0055
Memory Fades to Dust	4771	26.46	-0.122	56.99%	-2.004	0.2107
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1305	29.98	-0.113	56.09%	-1.847	0.1744
Promising Farmlands	2601	28.94	-0.122	54.36%	-1.883	0.3254
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	360	35.08	0.01	82.78%	-0.523	-0.1112
Thriving Communities	1225	30.25	-0.115	55.67%	-1.841	0.2475
Tipping Point	1071	29.83	-0.121	54.25%	-1.815	0.4096
Unnatural Proliferation	1488	32.51	-0.101	58.33%	-1.707	0.3733
Untended Land Crumbles	1232	29.54	-0.12	54.87%	-1.915	0.1871

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	10243	42.7%	30.14	-0.008	76.22%	0.109	-0.5791
B	12358	39.66%	32.85	0.003	78.51%	0.294	-0.4898
C	12065	39.04%	31.83	0.008	79.54%	0.362	-0.6504
D	10446	39.23%	31.55	0.004	79.18%	0.275	-0.5026
E	4640	44.44%	32.72	0.002	77.28%	0.335	-0.5596
East	962	41.52%	40.0	-0.025	69.85%	-0.273	-0.8488
F	9934	40.47%	31.45	0.005	78.79%	0.353	-0.488
G	11081	41.39%	32.05	0.004	78.19%	0.332	-0.5003
H	9469	40.49%	30.97	-0.001	77.52%	0.235	-0.6044
Northeast	1149	44.33%	37.75	-0.038	66.84%	-0.396	-0.9203
Northwest	1664	36.33%	39.44	-0.013	73.56%	-0.221	-0.8165
Southeast	311	43.09%	35.09	-0.019	72.67%	-0.311	-0.9401
Southwest	315	45.08%	31.63	-0.037	68.25%	-0.448	-0.6467
West	1094	43.25%	37.69	-0.048	65.54%	-0.578	-0.9049

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	3516	0.0%	19.58	-0.051	76.11%	-1.703	0.3498
Not Using Events or Tokens	9684	35.68%	24.91	0.003	79.9%	-0.162	0.0532
Skip Initial Invader Actions	2999	10.92%	38.17	0.05	94.46%	0.902	0.2156
Start of Game Growth	4421	14.31%	38.97	0.049	92.26%	0.728	0.2587
Unlimited Undo	8079	33.97%	33.84	0.026	85.0%	0.357	-0.0658
Using Tokens but Not Events	11312	24.56%	29.41	0.035	87.17%	0.222	0.1712

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	4904	27.78%	37.15	0.022	83.28%	0.18	0.2841
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	1670	50.77%	31.41	-0.026	72.16%	-0.349	-0.1514
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	5443	39.62%	32.29	-0.008	76.8%	-0.127	-0.2403
Eyes Watch From the Trees	5249	30.37%	32.69	0.018	83.56%	0.108	-0.2959
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	4679	34.1%	31.87	0.006	80.7%	-0.015	-0.3206
Fractured Days Split the Sky	435	40.19%	36.8	0.02	81.61%	0.245	0.5934
Heart of the Wildfire	2186	55.55%	33.22	-0.02	71.59%	-0.116	0.2023
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	4243	35.15%	37.8	0.016	81.03%	0.206	-0.1371
Lightning's Swift Strike	3977	40.14%	33.2	-0.001	78.02%	-0.059	0.1673
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	926	44.52%	34.47	-0.005	76.46%	-0.097	-0.3839

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	1266	3.176	30.548	79.15%
Animated Wrackroot	2001	3.832	35.257	84.61%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	425	3.325	32.544	81.88%
Birds Cry Warning	551	5.004	36.083	73.87%
Blood Draws Predators	1363	4.377	35.7	81.58%
Call of the Dahan Ways	2179	2.847	30.445	79.99%
Call To Bloodshed	3980	3.733	34.532	84.35%
Call to Ferocity	5228	4.82	38.941	83.78%
Call to Guard	2317	4.767	37.287	80.28%
Call To Isolation	2726	4.55	36.612	80.92%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	987	1.933	26.129	80.45%
Angry Bears	586	3.771	32.652	79.52%
Bargains of Power and Protection	222	4.423	33.459	70.72%
Blazing Renewal	3081	4.495	32.978	75.27%
Bloodwrack Plague	1176	3.579	29.997	73.47%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	568	2.63	28.363	77.64%
Cleansing Floods	857	2.03	26.678	79.0%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	716	2.668	29.134	80.17%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	832	3.175	29.222	76.44%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	273	4.256	32.121	76.56%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Call on Herders for Aid	82.52%
Gift of Searing Heat	84.23%
Stinging Sandstorm	90.79%
Sweltering Exhaustion	97.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	10653	22.37	26.07%
II	34830	30.88	76.33%
III	30724	34.39	90.4%
IV	9524	37.55	99.51%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	6426
Lose: Blight pool ran out	10713
Lose: Invader deck ran out	943
Lose: Scenario condition	695
Lose: Spirit destroyed	338
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2777
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	25933
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	27304
Win: Sacrifice victory	210
Win: Scenario condition	986
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	9406

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.537 Win Model: -0.22

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	1506	9.32%	28.06	96.02%	94.78%
-2	464	5.32%	27.81	95.91%	93.58%
-1	882	17.73%	24.38	93.42%	92.13%
0	26775	27.5%	20.05	88.74%	90.38%
1	6912	28.76%	24.56	89.8%	88.29%
2	5047	32.49%	28.9	88.77%	85.81%
3	4419	40.1%	31.79	82.44%	82.92%
4	5356	39.64%	36.88	82.97%	79.58%
5	4310	42.29%	38.68	74.34%	75.77%
6	6727	50.22%	40.1	72.8%	71.51%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.003 Win Model: -0.099

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	47408	41.26%	30.97	77.2%
2	21926	43.26%	31.78	76.96%
3	8542	38.95%	34.03	79.42%
4	7855	31.76%	37.53	80.93%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.057 Win Model: -1.046

Power Progression?	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
Power Progression	4272	18.38	70.53%
Standard	81459	32.8	78.08%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.