Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 33.33% 24.0 58.33% 0.421 0.1651 -0.662
Blitz 0 170 44.31% 24.44 47.65% -0.862 -0.6652 -0.202
Dahan Insurrection 4 112 36.61% 42.58 51.79% -0.559 -1.0018 -0.319
Despicable Theft 2 45 44.44% 25.84 42.22% -0.877 -0.0652 -0.357
Elemental Invocation 1 78 56.41% 29.18 42.31% -0.433 0.2698 -0.142
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 908 23.02% 39.86 58.26% 1.324 0.6796 0.316
Powers Long Forgotten 1 96 54.17% 28.13 52.08% 0.581 1.2158 0.083
Rituals of Terror 3 55 34.55% 35.44 60.0% -0.283 -0.1816 0.617
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 77 57.14% 27.22 45.45% -0.4 0.6097 -0.326
Second Wave 0 804 36.82% 25.66 70.65% 0.651 0.7173 -0.466
The Great River 3 51 37.25% 20.27 15.69% -0.667 0.5499 -0.343
Varied Terrains 2 13 76.92% 25.38 61.54% 0.547 1.1701 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 73 52.05% 29.01 52.05% 0.59 1.6738 -0.644

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7600 44.22% 24.49 51.49% 0.031 0.0852 -0.364
1 Thematic 440 48.97% 24.89 39.77% -0.116 0.3621 -0.682
2 Archipelago 16 31.25% 21.38 62.5% -0.858 -0.7536 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2479 50.0% 27.62 63.37% 0.256 0.3376 0.192
2 Coastline 325 44.89% 25.29 61.23% 0.657 0.5028 -1.043
2 Fragment 57 54.39% 26.65 68.42% 0.268 0.0186 0.273
2 Heart 43 56.1% 25.14 65.12% 0.155 -0.1325 1.072
2 Opposite Shores 421 45.89% 26.91 67.93% 0.891 0.9144 -0.223
2 Thematic 275 52.57% 30.03 50.18% -0.448 -0.0449 -0.354
2 Top to Top 70 50.0% 27.56 68.57% -0.104 -0.2707 -0.374
3 Archipelago 8 37.5% 32.5 62.5% -0.223 -1.772 0.0
3 Coastline 18 50.0% 20.33 38.89% -0.105 -0.6181 0.293
3 Other 83 35.37% 29.13 68.67% 0.428 0.9687 0.493
3 Round (Default) 1613 47.44% 31.67 70.37% 0.631 0.5157 0.279
3 Sunrise 4 25.0% 23.25 100.0% 0.0 0.2798 0.0
3 Thematic 87 50.57% 30.17 63.22% 0.388 0.4685 0.103
4 Archipelago 8 57.14% 23.88 25.0% 0.0 -0.6745 0.0
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67% 0.0 0.2312 0.0
4 Leaf 9 55.56% 20.67 44.44% -0.8 -1.1434 0.0
4 Other 42 34.15% 33.14 90.48% -0.569 -1.6524 0.362
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3465 0.0
4 Thematic 153 36.67% 38.22 77.12% 0.002 -0.2606 0.027
4 Trapezoid (Default) 986 39.73% 33.05 73.94% 0.552 0.4694 -0.226
5 Other 62 44.26% 27.92 77.42% -0.34 -0.6247 -0.023
5 Thematic 17 43.75% 32.35 76.47% 0.0 -0.0937 0.276
6 Archipelago 5 0.0% 28.4 40.0% -0.338 -0.187 -0.364
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.8009 0.0
6 Other 26 7.69% 33.23 92.31% 0.115 -0.118 0.705
6 Star 12 33.33% 33.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.0127 0.0
6 Thematic 58 22.81% 28.53 75.86% -0.348 0.0721 -0.803
6 Two Centers (Default) 104 24.75% 25.63 73.08% -0.093 0.0111 -0.36
7 Archipelago 4 0.0% 20.5 25.0% -0.44 -0.4587 -0.177
7 Other 6 16.67% 9.0 16.67% 0.459 -0.1534 -0.847

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 424 26.43 38.68% -0.872 -0.6295 -0.101
Aid From Lesser Spirits 461 30.67 52.93% 0.156 0.0783 0.483
All Things Weaken 460 24.82 34.78% 0.012 0.4049 -0.247
Attenuated Essence 14 18.21 35.71% 0.159 0.2659 -0.122
Back Against the Wall 418 29.22 46.17% 0.577 0.6349 0.322
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 16 25.31 37.5% -0.049 0.1528 -0.4
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 13.6 20.0% -0.539 -0.329 -0.431
Disintegrating Ecosystem 418 25.33 37.08% -0.783 -0.3592 0.29
Downward Spiral 551 23.81 34.66% 0.154 0.3899 0.163
Erosion of Will 495 25.55 39.6% 0.062 0.3715 -0.479
Intensifying Exploitation 15 15.87 33.33% -0.126 0.1619 -0.202
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 203 28.55 53.69% 0.18 -0.3141 0.191
Memory Fades to Dust 507 24.41 39.84% 0.037 0.3737 0.213
Power Corrodes the Spirit 510 23.67 36.08% -0.7 -0.4797 -0.265
Promising Farmlands 438 25.54 36.76% -0.406 0.0473 0.193
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 26.23 30.77% -0.07 -0.0188 0.3
Slow Dissolution of Will 9 13.33 22.22% -0.763 -0.3636 -0.277
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 141 27.79 60.28% 0.318 -0.393 -0.221
The Border of Life and Death 3 10.0 0.0% -0.791 -1.126 -0.111
Thriving Communities 493 24.8 35.9% -0.366 -0.0028 0.339
Thriving Crops 9 26.56 33.33% 0.33 0.1327 0.211
Unnatural Proliferation 546 27.68 41.21% 0.51 0.7252 0.321
Untended Land Crumbles 525 24.57 33.71% -0.605 -0.3234 0.244

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3309 45.03% 27.95 62.1% -0.296 0.4446 -0.081
B 3327 44.86% 27.59 62.91% 0.312 1.0381 0.044
C 3833 42.23% 28.18 65.72% 0.488 1.0701 0.045
D 3213 45.62% 27.74 63.09% -0.293 0.4179 -0.024
E 3518 43.55% 28.63 63.7% 0.191 0.7563 0.39
F 2938 44.24% 28.09 63.51% 0.558 1.228 -0.389
G 2518 45.32% 28.28 62.35% -0.073 0.5787 -0.241
H 2541 45.72% 28.95 64.9% -0.082 0.489 -0.269
East 722 42.44% 31.53 56.79% 0.332 0.8713 -0.634
Northeast 434 41.69% 31.82 57.83% -0.44 0.1943 -0.821
Northwest 336 46.08% 31.05 58.93% -0.06 0.7492 0.912
Southeast 257 35.04% 32.12 66.93% 0.718 1.4238 0.101
Southwest 250 42.91% 27.62 59.2% -1.103 -0.113 -0.109
West 640 48.74% 29.19 54.22% 0.03 0.934 -0.779

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 292 0.0% 13.79 52.74% -0.881 -0.1048 -0.038
Not Using Events or Tokens 405 41.94% 15.09 47.9% -0.187 0.1919 -0.573
Skip Initial Invader Actions 370 19.35% 28.92 73.51% 0.133 -0.485 -0.185
Start of Game Growth 489 25.2% 29.06 71.17% 0.06 -0.2881 -0.363
Unlimited Undo 1290 37.8% 25.64 62.56% -0.705 -0.7121 0.089
Using Tokens but Not Events 1634 24.05% 23.09 65.18% -0.115 -0.1249 -0.481

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 816 100.0% 33.48 100.0% -0.51 -0.6574 0.696
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 217 100.0% 27.33 100.0% 0.302 0.4325 0.103
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 461 100.0% 27.85 100.0% -0.515 -0.66 -0.678
Downpour Drenches the World 57 100.0% 24.63 100.0% 0.259 0.4387 -0.588
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 55 100.0% 23.55 100.0% 1.05 0.2847 0.754
Eyes Watch From the Trees 431 100.0% 30.77 100.0% 0.445 -0.1437 0.405
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 390 100.0% 28.16 100.0% -0.159 -0.6555 -0.312
Finder of Paths Unseen 44 100.0% 24.52 100.0% -0.354 0.3102 -0.006
Fractured Days Split the Sky 311 100.0% 33.41 100.0% -1.405 -0.8193 0.382
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 155 100.0% 28.17 100.0% -0.503 -0.5973 -0.401
Heart of the Wildfire 366 100.0% 29.9 100.0% 0.205 0.4462 -0.117
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 653 100.0% 36.58 100.0% -0.609 -1.0509 0.373
Lightning's Swift Strike 232 328.02% 25.36 210.34% 1.069 1.2521 -0.83
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 62 52.46% 30.44 67.74% 0.443 -0.0433 -0.488
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 455 40.36% 31.12 78.46% -0.323 -0.4906 0.915
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 511 41.33% 29.19 72.99% -0.041 -0.1546 0.066
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 508 100.0% 32.33 100.0% -0.355 -0.4873 0.086
Many Minds Move as One 295 100.0% 30.84 100.0% 0.252 0.0307 0.452
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 374 100.0% 31.2 100.0% -0.228 -0.2702 -0.05
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 436 100.0% 28.83 100.0% -0.106 -0.2842 0.036
River Surges in Sunlight 275 239.93% 29.15 164.0% -0.117 -0.0471 -0.137
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 613 37.0% 28.32 73.08% -0.051 0.2596 -0.029
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 37 32.43% 27.35 70.27% 0.921 0.8079 -0.235
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 484 100.0% 33.92 100.0% -0.749 -0.986 0.434
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 79 571.58% 20.81 331.65% -0.444 0.0857 0.303
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 34 57.58% 29.74 61.76% 0.576 0.5005 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 15 50.0% 21.13 66.67% -0.005 -0.1111 0.049
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 356 39.71% 27.54 77.81% 0.113 0.095 -0.297
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 380 41.94% 27.04 77.37% 0.26 0.437 0.659
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 378 101.85% 33.29 102.91% 1.061 0.8705 -0.932
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 19 63.16% 19.53 42.11% -0.074 -0.4548 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 219 100.0% 29.04 100.0% 0.134 0.4878 -0.099
Shroud of Silent Mist 220 100.0% 26.76 100.0% 0.048 0.298 -0.238
Starlight Seeks its Form 166 100.0% 28.52 100.0% -0.325 -0.5864 -0.21
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 655 100.0% 34.39 100.0% -0.221 -0.6979 0.044
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 324 100.0% 29.69 100.0% -0.6 -0.5374 0.028
Thunderspeaker 396 101.77% 31.98 101.77% 0.198 0.1639 -0.091
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 13 46.15% 21.62 46.15% 0.139 0.1 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 313 100.0% 28.84 100.0% 0.552 0.6449 0.217
Volcano Looming High 351 100.0% 28.36 100.0% -0.152 -0.195 -0.095

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 82.21%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 69.07%
Guard the Healing Land 86.2%
Rituals of Destruction 71.53%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2992 20.4 4.24%
II 3726 31.01 43.32%
III 5136 34.76 75.39%
IV 3199 38.07 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 126
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3816
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1563
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3167
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 438
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1266
Lose: Adversary condition 1986
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Lose: Scenario condition 182
Win: Scenario condition 95
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2326
Lose: Spirit destroyed 60

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.115 Win Model: -0.146

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.173 Win Model: 0.159
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 8092 44.5% 24.47 50.74%
2 3705 49.4% 27.58 63.16%
3 1780 46.66% 31.4 70.28%
4 1220 39.85% 33.58 74.34%
5 49 29.17% 20.61 63.27%
6 207 22.17% 28.3 77.29%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)