Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 40.0% 29.6 80.0% 0.303 0.7433 0.0
Blitz 0 160 44.3% 25.14 50.63% -0.286 -0.03 -0.1
Dahan Insurrection 4 102 38.24% 44.2 53.92% 0.0 0.3019 -0.081
Despicable Theft 2 33 51.52% 29.45 51.52% 0.098 0.6424 -0.26
Elemental Invocation 1 70 58.57% 30.46 42.86% -0.572 0.039 -0.245
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 824 24.03% 40.5 59.83% -0.456 -0.262 0.284
Powers Long Forgotten 1 85 57.65% 28.34 50.59% 0.425 0.6701 0.112
Rituals of Terror 3 53 35.85% 36.25 62.26% 0.288 -0.548 0.6
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 66 62.12% 29.0 46.97% 0.0 0.5254 -0.225
Second Wave 0 703 36.97% 25.71 72.12% -0.188 0.3848 -0.401
The Great River 3 37 37.84% 23.65 16.22% -0.698 0.9409 -0.36
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 33.4 80.0% 0.294 1.0398 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 63 55.56% 28.71 52.38% 1.009 2.064 -0.502

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6711 45.7% 25.26 53.2% 0.088 0.5333 -0.229
1 Thematic 380 52.25% 25.49 41.58% 0.087 0.7189 -0.546
2 Archipelago 13 38.46% 26.31 76.92% 0.0 0.0128 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2141 50.44% 28.52 66.0% 0.201 0.5453 0.262
2 Coastline 277 46.55% 26.22 62.82% -0.551 -0.4684 -0.927
2 Fragment 48 47.92% 29.0 77.08% 0.057 0.1448 0.494
2 Heart 35 51.52% 26.43 68.57% 0.222 0.8336 0.898
2 Opposite Shores 360 42.3% 27.71 71.39% -0.002 0.3765 -0.025
2 Thematic 232 55.46% 31.21 52.59% 0.188 0.7057 -0.796
2 Top to Top 60 46.55% 28.6 75.0% 0.071 0.21 -0.36
3 Archipelago 7 42.86% 37.14 71.43% 0.0 -0.9775 0.0
3 Coastline 10 60.0% 28.6 60.0% 0.054 -0.5954 0.249
3 Other 71 38.57% 29.28 69.01% 0.426 -0.6456 0.252
3 Round (Default) 1398 47.34% 32.8 72.68% 1.133 1.3249 0.259
3 Sunrise 4 25.0% 23.25 100.0% 0.0 0.3199 0.0
3 Thematic 66 53.03% 32.33 66.67% -0.975 -1.2209 -0.365
4 Archipelago 8 57.14% 23.88 25.0% -0.57 -0.9721 0.0
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67% 0.0 0.1977 0.0
4 Leaf 8 62.5% 23.25 50.0% 0.0 0.4908 0.0
4 Other 38 29.73% 34.92 94.74% -0.272 -0.8127 0.605
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 142 39.57% 39.85 79.58% 0.138 0.144 0.058
4 Trapezoid (Default) 914 39.1% 33.68 74.62% 0.023 -0.1181 -0.411
5 Other 49 51.02% 31.29 85.71% -0.101 -0.2763 0.269
5 Thematic 16 46.67% 34.38 81.25% 0.593 0.5589 0.18
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.7508 -0.446
6 Other 23 4.35% 32.83 91.3% 0.048 0.7455 0.25
6 Star 12 33.33% 33.83 100.0% 0.037 0.569 0.0
6 Thematic 36 28.57% 35.06 97.22% 0.049 0.5477 -0.204
6 Two Centers (Default) 67 30.3% 29.46 82.09% -0.369 -0.1435 -0.217
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.7346 -0.219
7 Other 2 50.0% 27.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.7715 -0.309

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 386 26.81 38.6% -0.027 1.8829 -0.207
Aid From Lesser Spirits 423 30.76 53.66% -0.919 0.7656 0.408
All Things Weaken 414 25.45 35.99% -0.727 1.2732 -0.193
Back Against the Wall 380 29.22 46.32% -0.921 1.0268 0.123
Disintegrating Ecosystem 376 25.8 39.1% -0.532 1.5338 0.21
Downward Spiral 493 24.55 34.69% -1.265 0.6976 0.084
Erosion of Will 465 25.93 39.78% -1.139 0.9684 -0.536
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 182 28.59 53.3% -0.411 0.2057 0.127
Memory Fades to Dust 449 24.67 40.98% 0.167 2.2246 0.046
Power Corrodes the Spirit 454 24.19 38.11% -0.814 1.1647 -0.327
Promising Farmlands 395 26.05 38.99% -0.992 1.1104 0.157
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 28.76 60.31% -0.685 -0.3557 -0.318
Thriving Communities 447 25.28 36.24% -0.501 1.5484 0.153
Unnatural Proliferation 488 27.43 40.57% -1.414 0.5298 0.285
Untended Land Crumbles 478 24.79 33.47% -1.202 0.8244 0.078

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2876 45.38% 28.99 64.6% 0.341 1.1008 0.012
B 2846 45.48% 28.71 65.6% -0.364 0.3129 0.09
C 3424 43.04% 29.04 67.41% 0.094 0.6193 0.011
D 2794 45.87% 28.92 65.96% 0.141 0.8677 -0.015
E 3036 44.31% 29.61 66.07% 0.358 0.9176 0.433
F 2556 45.12% 29.29 65.45% -0.228 0.4617 -0.366
G 2199 45.36% 29.3 64.71% 0.184 0.8792 -0.205
H 2236 46.72% 30.04 66.77% -0.051 0.6101 -0.252
East 596 45.92% 33.42 60.23% 0.183 0.8625 -0.653
Northeast 361 44.92% 34.15 62.05% -0.698 -0.1284 -0.445
Northwest 277 50.92% 33.32 62.82% 0.042 0.8835 0.279
Southeast 199 40.82% 35.21 73.37% 0.795 1.3219 -0.085
Southwest 198 47.18% 30.96 66.67% -0.509 0.4318 -0.058
West 526 52.69% 31.37 58.75% 0.268 1.2679 -0.58

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 239 0.0% 15.36 59.0% -0.054 2.0648 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 329 43.96% 16.62 50.76% -0.601 -0.3607 -0.428
Skip Initial Invader Actions 330 17.06% 30.62 77.27% 0.77 0.4009 -0.179
Start of Game Growth 442 24.0% 30.5 73.98% 1.362 0.7395 -0.476
Unlimited Undo 1094 37.96% 27.37 67.0% -0.073 -0.7038 0.256
Using Tokens but Not Events 1360 24.92% 23.89 69.19% -0.089 -0.0454 -0.319

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 713 100.0% 35.36 100.0% -0.171 -0.2189 0.743
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 190 100.0% 28.53 100.0% -0.852 -0.7882 0.19
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 395 100.0% 28.88 100.0% -0.207 -0.4455 -0.596
Downpour Drenches the World 25 100.0% 27.88 100.0% -0.1 0.2919 -0.466
Eyes Watch From the Trees 376 100.0% 31.9 100.0% -0.004 -0.4189 0.337
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 342 100.0% 28.87 100.0% 0.162 -0.4328 -0.559
Finder of Paths Unseen 20 100.0% 27.7 100.0% -0.419 -0.0145 -0.325
Fractured Days Split the Sky 286 100.0% 34.71 100.0% 0.077 0.1194 0.283
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 110 100.0% 29.95 100.0% -0.043 -0.0598 -0.429
Heart of the Wildfire 318 100.0% 30.72 100.0% -0.877 -0.5481 -0.047
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 606 100.0% 37.48 100.0% 0.942 0.3081 0.2
Lightning's Swift Strike 186 357.07% 27.62 213.98% -0.257 0.0165 -0.529
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 19 52.63% 30.21 84.21% 0.329 -0.5039 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 425 40.14% 31.8 80.24% 0.148 -0.4245 0.908
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 476 42.27% 29.73 73.74% -0.441 -0.8658 0.032
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 472 100.0% 32.8 100.0% -0.136 -0.3426 0.016
Many Minds Move as One 254 100.0% 32.59 100.0% 0.427 -0.0849 0.454
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 326 100.0% 32.38 100.0% -0.372 -0.6553 0.099
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 364 100.0% 30.8 100.0% -0.155 -0.1225 -0.031
River Surges in Sunlight 235 241.06% 31.06 161.28% 0.587 0.5925 -0.181
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 557 37.91% 29.16 74.51% 0.397 0.8411 0.031
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 12 33.33% 30.25 83.33% -0.459 -0.702 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 420 100.0% 36.12 100.0% 0.922 0.7783 0.454
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 53 725.0% 24.55 377.36% 0.28 0.7815 0.329
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 19 63.16% 32.32 57.89% -0.093 0.0455 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 4 25.0% 24.75 100.0% 0.108 0.0302 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 331 40.85% 28.07 78.85% 0.746 0.7437 -0.292
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 346 42.01% 27.71 80.06% -0.048 0.0207 0.666
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 346 100.0% 33.74 100.0% -0.437 -0.6988 -1.005
Shifting Memory of Ages 163 100.0% 32.09 100.0% 0.402 0.4243 -0.217
Shroud of Silent Mist 185 100.0% 27.49 100.0% -0.086 0.1585 -0.2
Starlight Seeks its Form 110 100.0% 33.73 100.0% -0.601 -0.8127 0.045
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 602 100.0% 35.4 100.0% -0.152 -0.3215 -0.038
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 287 100.0% 30.6 100.0% 0.142 0.2522 0.266
Thunderspeaker 355 100.0% 32.97 100.0% -0.279 -0.374 -0.015
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 275 100.0% 29.95 100.0% 0.769 0.6719 0.317
Volcano Looming High 286 100.0% 29.81 100.0% 0.36 0.3448 -0.217

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 81.37%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 67.9%
Guard the Healing Land 85.62%
Rituals of Destruction 70.52%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2301 22.62 4.69%
II 3319 31.05 43.9%
III 4647 34.62 75.96%
IV 2881 37.86 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 107
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3480
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1409
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2852
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1139
Lose: Adversary condition 1753
Win: Sacrifice victory 26
Lose: Scenario condition 163
Win: Scenario condition 87
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2081
Lose: Spirit destroyed 51

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.808 Win Model: -0.234

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.326 Win Model: 0.601
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 7120 46.06% 25.25 52.56%
2 3190 49.5% 28.51 65.8%
3 1531 46.85% 32.59 72.76%
4 1135 39.63% 34.36 75.33%
5 28 42.86% 27.79 89.29%
6 144 24.65% 32.15 87.5%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)