Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 33.33% 29.83 83.33% 0.0 -0.4468 0.0
Blitz 0 164 45.06% 25.13 49.39% -0.555 -0.0987 -0.206
Dahan Insurrection 4 105 38.1% 43.72 53.33% 0.149 0.1692 -0.357
Despicable Theft 2 39 51.28% 29.03 48.72% -0.977 -0.4644 -0.236
Elemental Invocation 1 71 59.15% 30.55 43.66% 0.344 1.043 -0.276
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 866 23.33% 40.24 58.55% -0.114 -0.0728 0.202
Powers Long Forgotten 1 89 56.18% 28.2 51.69% -0.091 0.4705 0.043
Rituals of Terror 3 53 35.85% 36.25 62.26% 0.0 -0.2878 0.603
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 69 62.32% 29.28 47.83% 0.42 0.8503 -0.246
Second Wave 0 752 37.14% 25.97 71.68% -0.01 0.4519 -0.47
The Great River 3 39 38.46% 24.15 17.95% 0.218 1.9848 -0.356
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 27.57 57.14% -0.833 -0.0045 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 66 54.55% 28.71 53.03% 0.261 1.0047 -0.472

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7069 45.11% 25.19 53.02% 0.341 0.8906 -0.318
1 Thematic 400 51.39% 25.6 41.5% -0.256 0.7414 -0.689
2 Archipelago 13 38.46% 26.31 76.92% 0.0 0.6175 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2263 50.28% 28.55 66.15% 0.538 0.948 0.16
2 Coastline 297 46.1% 26.01 62.29% -0.165 -0.0292 -1.025
2 Fragment 53 50.94% 27.79 71.7% -0.542 -0.547 0.526
2 Heart 37 51.43% 27.16 70.27% 0.185 0.6595 0.87
2 Opposite Shores 386 44.65% 27.72 69.69% -0.276 0.0775 -0.256
2 Thematic 253 54.0% 31.32 52.57% 0.156 1.0858 -0.4
2 Top to Top 64 46.77% 27.97 73.44% 0.106 0.2327 -0.381
3 Archipelago 7 42.86% 37.14 71.43% 0.0 0.1788 0.0
3 Coastline 11 54.55% 28.55 54.55% 0.0 -0.4167 0.209
3 Other 73 38.89% 29.81 69.86% 0.534 -0.1848 0.219
3 Round (Default) 1479 47.72% 32.78 72.21% 0.087 0.2808 0.227
3 Sunrise 4 25.0% 23.25 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 74 54.05% 32.19 64.86% -0.134 -0.1187 0.163
4 Archipelago 8 57.14% 23.88 25.0% 0.0 -0.4195 0.0
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67% 0.0 -0.0727 0.0
4 Leaf 8 62.5% 23.25 50.0% 0.0 -0.0965 0.0
4 Other 40 30.77% 34.65 95.0% -0.154 -0.7701 0.557
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.5654 0.0
4 Thematic 147 38.19% 39.31 78.91% -0.673 -0.3899 -0.124
4 Trapezoid (Default) 945 39.23% 33.48 74.71% 0.19 0.3776 -0.401
5 Other 55 49.09% 30.89 85.45% -0.404 -1.0347 0.237
5 Thematic 16 46.67% 34.38 81.25% 0.0 -0.9744 0.185
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.0703 -0.397
6 Other 25 8.0% 33.36 92.0% 0.24 -0.0024 0.539
6 Star 12 33.33% 33.83 100.0% 0.0 0.5458 0.0
6 Thematic 42 26.83% 34.38 95.24% 0.099 0.1446 -0.502
6 Two Centers (Default) 80 26.92% 28.8 82.5% -0.336 0.1267 -0.219
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.221 -0.169
7 Other 2 50.0% 27.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.3606 -0.31

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 407 26.9 38.82% -0.822 0.9089 -0.148
Aid From Lesser Spirits 447 30.81 53.47% -0.506 1.0693 0.446
All Things Weaken 440 25.16 35.23% -1.578 0.2994 -0.273
Back Against the Wall 395 29.38 46.84% -0.356 1.2809 0.22
Disintegrating Ecosystem 397 25.68 38.54% -0.957 0.886 0.266
Downward Spiral 518 24.47 34.56% -0.964 0.7346 0.142
Erosion of Will 481 25.8 40.12% -0.724 1.1759 -0.517
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 189 28.67 53.44% -0.233 0.2669 0.126
Memory Fades to Dust 476 24.77 40.13% -1.106 0.7705 0.139
Power Corrodes the Spirit 473 23.96 37.42% -1.133 0.5712 -0.349
Promising Farmlands 418 25.72 37.32% -2.166 -0.2907 0.14
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 134 28.54 59.7% -0.205 0.005 -0.273
Thriving Communities 466 25.25 36.7% -0.725 1.1452 0.257
Unnatural Proliferation 517 27.56 41.01% -0.824 0.9296 0.209
Untended Land Crumbles 498 24.83 34.14% -0.765 1.0489 0.158

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3038 45.39% 28.96 64.35% -0.191 0.5866 -0.063
B 3037 45.08% 28.55 65.23% 0.053 0.7564 0.07
C 3565 43.04% 29.05 67.55% 0.482 1.0094 0.014
D 2953 46.14% 28.83 65.63% 0.077 0.812 -0.007
E 3221 44.05% 29.54 66.04% 0.196 0.7795 0.381
F 2693 44.83% 29.08 65.28% 0.57 1.2776 -0.431
G 2334 45.21% 29.15 64.48% -0.2 0.4419 -0.266
H 2345 46.5% 29.95 66.87% -0.289 0.3559 -0.319
East 648 45.0% 33.25 59.72% -0.426 0.1654 -0.638
Northeast 388 44.62% 33.93 61.6% 0.385 1.0622 -0.499
Northwest 297 49.49% 33.26 62.96% 0.054 0.4918 0.89
Southeast 221 38.53% 34.84 72.85% 0.575 1.2383 -0.244
Southwest 213 45.24% 30.62 66.67% -0.843 0.3279 -0.153
West 565 51.52% 31.17 58.23% -0.636 0.1818 -0.614

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 251 0.0% 15.26 58.57% -1.203 0.8725 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 346 43.39% 16.53 51.16% -0.199 -0.0278 -0.521
Skip Initial Invader Actions 338 17.05% 30.78 77.22% -0.28 -1.3396 -0.167
Start of Game Growth 455 23.96% 30.58 74.07% 0.354 -0.0683 -0.379
Unlimited Undo 1157 38.47% 27.46 66.72% 0.251 -0.1647 0.264
Using Tokens but Not Events 1461 24.95% 24.0 68.79% -0.135 -0.0191 -0.491

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 748 100.0% 35.27 100.0% 0.687 0.5077 0.713
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 200 100.0% 28.49 100.0% -0.682 -0.6676 0.101
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 416 100.0% 29.09 100.0% 0.79 0.5443 -0.541
Downpour Drenches the World 39 100.0% 28.0 100.0% -0.338 0.0495 -0.255
Eyes Watch From the Trees 400 100.0% 31.73 100.0% -0.238 -0.7111 0.37
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 360 100.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.024 -0.4228 -0.448
Finder of Paths Unseen 28 100.0% 29.75 100.0% 0.161 0.5242 -0.315
Fractured Days Split the Sky 294 100.0% 34.95 100.0% 0.967 1.0707 0.385
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 122 100.0% 30.98 100.0% 0.663 0.5988 -0.206
Heart of the Wildfire 341 100.0% 30.71 100.0% -0.245 0.0136 -0.154
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 625 100.0% 37.29 100.0% -0.679 -1.262 0.27
Lightning's Swift Strike 198 350.68% 27.31 213.64% 0.767 1.0344 -0.53
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 32 56.25% 31.72 81.25% -0.125 -0.9396 0.21
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 442 40.42% 31.55 79.64% -0.537 -1.0796 0.85
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 493 42.41% 29.51 73.83% 0.078 -0.3997 -0.003
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 492 100.0% 32.66 100.0% 0.38 0.2587 0.017
Many Minds Move as One 262 100.0% 32.63 100.0% 0.043 -0.58 0.432
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 348 100.0% 32.36 100.0% -0.565 -0.6925 -0.111
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 398 100.0% 30.24 100.0% -0.343 -0.4266 -0.08
River Surges in Sunlight 254 238.72% 30.36 160.63% -0.873 -1.0645 -0.237
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 582 37.72% 28.88 74.4% -0.422 -0.1344 0.025
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 22 36.36% 29.18 77.27% -0.042 -0.4046 -0.236
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 442 100.0% 35.95 100.0% 0.669 0.496 0.471
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 58 692.96% 24.98 372.41% -0.088 0.3047 0.326
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 24 62.5% 31.67 62.5% 0.46 0.5564 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 9 44.44% 23.33 88.89% -0.071 0.0036 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 340 40.3% 27.79 78.82% -0.381 -0.4168 -0.282
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 364 41.85% 27.41 79.12% -0.093 -0.0894 0.761
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 364 100.0% 33.52 100.0% 0.223 0.0233 -1.009
Shifting Memory of Ages 179 100.0% 31.89 100.0% -0.354 -0.1246 -0.175
Shroud of Silent Mist 200 100.0% 28.05 100.0% 0.17 0.3543 -0.454
Starlight Seeks its Form 129 100.0% 33.46 100.0% -0.279 -0.4353 -0.054
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 624 100.0% 35.18 100.0% 0.337 0.0735 -0.057
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 304 100.0% 30.62 100.0% 0.765 0.8273 0.425
Thunderspeaker 372 100.0% 33.05 100.0% 0.276 0.1995 -0.034
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 286 100.0% 29.75 100.0% -0.713 -0.9751 0.204
Volcano Looming High 312 100.0% 29.53 100.0% 0.161 0.157 -0.149

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 81.52%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 68.17%
Guard the Healing Land 85.86%
Rituals of Destruction 70.81%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2459 22.63 4.76%
II 3497 31.12 43.89%
III 4883 34.7 75.75%
IV 3044 37.97 99.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 116
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3647
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1485
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3015
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1200
Lose: Adversary condition 1877
Win: Sacrifice victory 27
Lose: Scenario condition 172
Win: Scenario condition 90
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2187
Lose: Spirit destroyed 58

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.574 Win Model: -0.246

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.346 Win Model: 0.548
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 7505 45.5% 25.19 52.34%
2 3387 49.51% 28.53 65.66%
3 1621 47.21% 32.58 72.3%
4 1171 39.55% 34.1 75.32%
5 34 41.18% 27.76 88.24%
6 165 23.46% 31.64 87.27%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)