Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 36.36% 23.64 54.55% -0.094 -0.173 -0.749
Blitz 0 168 44.58% 24.73 48.21% -1.102 -0.9558 -0.197
Dahan Insurrection 4 108 37.04% 43.22 52.78% -0.119 -0.326 -0.359
Despicable Theft 2 42 47.62% 27.69 45.24% -1.165 -0.4827 -0.242
Elemental Invocation 1 76 56.58% 29.64 43.42% -0.363 0.3679 -0.192
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 892 23.32% 40.14 58.52% 1.292 0.686 0.308
Powers Long Forgotten 1 92 54.35% 27.82 51.09% -0.269 0.2191 0.1
Rituals of Terror 3 54 35.19% 36.09 61.11% -0.162 -0.0564 0.608
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 75 58.67% 27.47 45.33% -0.466 0.526 -0.334
Second Wave 0 789 36.84% 25.75 70.72% 0.732 0.7947 -0.473
The Great River 3 43 34.88% 22.33 16.28% -0.541 0.8073 -0.341
Varied Terrains 2 11 72.73% 25.27 63.64% 0.161 0.7237 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 72 52.78% 29.42 52.78% 0.484 1.6936 -0.649

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7438 44.47% 24.65 51.84% -0.471 -0.2609 -0.352
1 Thematic 432 49.65% 25.18 40.28% -0.323 0.2761 -0.71
2 Archipelago 13 38.46% 26.31 76.92% 0.0 0.3569 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2399 49.63% 27.83 64.4% 0.002 0.1625 0.205
2 Coastline 318 44.62% 25.28 61.64% 0.275 0.3357 -1.019
2 Fragment 55 52.73% 26.78 69.09% -0.459 -0.5226 0.243
2 Heart 39 51.35% 27.36 69.23% 0.557 0.319 1.077
2 Opposite Shores 404 45.86% 27.33 68.81% 0.367 0.5005 -0.176
2 Thematic 269 53.38% 30.38 50.56% -0.01 0.6265 -0.392
2 Top to Top 68 48.48% 27.49 70.59% -0.534 -0.4939 -0.322
3 Archipelago 7 42.86% 37.14 71.43% 0.0 -1.0866 0.0
3 Coastline 11 54.55% 28.55 54.55% 0.0 -0.498 0.232
3 Other 82 35.8% 29.24 69.51% 0.604 0.7136 0.463
3 Round (Default) 1581 47.81% 31.88 70.46% 0.088 0.0463 0.246
3 Sunrise 4 25.0% 23.25 100.0% 0.0 0.1962 0.0
3 Thematic 85 49.41% 30.22 63.53% -0.067 -0.0309 0.145
4 Archipelago 8 57.14% 23.88 25.0% 0.0 -0.2146 0.0
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67% 0.0 0.1222 0.0
4 Leaf 9 55.56% 20.67 44.44% -0.58 -0.9555 0.0
4 Other 41 32.5% 33.8 92.68% -0.537 -1.3867 0.246
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0206 0.0
4 Thematic 152 36.91% 38.3 76.97% -0.533 -0.5502 -0.046
4 Trapezoid (Default) 973 39.44% 33.09 74.0% 0.505 0.319 -0.313
5 Other 60 45.76% 28.85 80.0% -0.159 -0.6671 0.262
5 Thematic 17 43.75% 32.35 76.47% -0.337 -0.6667 0.178
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.305 -0.435
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6437 0.0
6 Other 25 8.0% 33.36 92.0% 0.196 -0.1982 0.49
6 Star 12 33.33% 33.83 100.0% 0.0 0.4753 0.0
6 Thematic 49 27.08% 33.08 89.8% 0.147 0.5461 -0.488
6 Two Centers (Default) 92 26.67% 26.86 76.09% -0.087 -0.0435 -0.143
7 Archipelago 3 0.0% 27.33 33.33% -0.286 -0.8758 -0.184
7 Other 6 16.67% 9.0 16.67% -0.24 -1.0133 -0.918

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 421 26.53 38.95% -0.399 -0.1274 -0.131
Aid From Lesser Spirits 459 30.74 52.94% 0.38 0.4191 0.442
All Things Weaken 456 24.82 34.65% -0.593 -0.132 -0.274
Attenuated Essence 11 18.09 36.36% -0.024 0.1813 -0.178
Back Against the Wall 412 29.29 46.36% 0.141 0.303 0.298
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 11.67 11.11% -0.69 -0.2753 -0.254
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 15.67 33.33% 0.04 0.3448 -0.429
Disintegrating Ecosystem 415 25.4 37.35% -1.051 -0.5243 0.277
Downward Spiral 538 24.11 34.57% -0.511 -0.1584 0.149
Erosion of Will 492 25.59 39.84% 0.172 0.5806 -0.501
Intensifying Exploitation 14 15.79 35.71% -0.381 0.0056 -0.203
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 197 28.38 53.3% 0.538 0.0131 0.162
Memory Fades to Dust 492 24.49 40.04% 0.017 0.498 0.208
Power Corrodes the Spirit 488 23.86 37.3% -0.362 -0.0578 -0.228
Promising Farmlands 435 25.56 37.01% -0.769 -0.183 0.184
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 25.33 33.33% -0.037 0.142 0.296
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 12.5 33.33% 0.12 0.6533 -0.286
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 139 27.98 59.71% 0.334 -0.3442 -0.241
The Border of Life and Death 3 10.0 0.0% -0.762 -0.8918 -0.115
Thriving Communities 485 24.83 36.08% -0.927 -0.4335 0.302
Thriving Crops 6 17.33 16.67% -0.291 -0.2032 -0.48
Unnatural Proliferation 534 27.68 41.2% 0.383 0.6796 0.235
Untended Land Crumbles 513 24.72 34.31% 0.204 0.5619 0.221

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3214 45.05% 28.25 62.69% -0.292 0.5484 -0.081
B 3232 44.69% 27.8 63.52% 0.093 0.8717 0.055
C 3738 42.74% 28.45 66.19% 0.162 0.8163 0.018
D 3130 45.56% 27.97 63.77% -0.338 0.4612 -0.024
E 3430 43.8% 28.8 64.26% 0.264 0.8924 0.363
F 2855 44.44% 28.37 64.1% 0.279 0.9984 -0.39
G 2450 45.05% 28.55 63.14% 0.059 0.8004 -0.202
H 2474 46.09% 29.31 65.52% -0.234 0.4145 -0.317
East 700 43.21% 32.13 57.86% 0.658 1.2623 -0.643
Northeast 415 42.65% 32.85 59.76% -0.398 0.4829 -0.478
Northwest 322 47.48% 32.04 60.87% -0.028 0.6452 0.886
Southeast 246 36.63% 33.02 69.11% 0.297 0.9332 0.024
Southwest 237 45.3% 29.0 62.45% -1.089 0.076 -0.164
West 621 49.92% 29.89 55.56% -0.563 0.4015 -0.834

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 273 0.0% 14.42 54.95% -1.304 -0.4208 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 380 42.44% 15.75 49.21% -0.107 0.2253 -0.525
Skip Initial Invader Actions 361 18.98% 29.39 74.52% 0.213 -0.3216 -0.145
Start of Game Growth 479 25.0% 29.48 72.03% 0.004 -0.3264 -0.38
Unlimited Undo 1253 37.82% 26.04 63.61% -0.507 -0.5291 0.065
Using Tokens but Not Events 1578 24.19% 23.26 66.1% -0.079 -0.133 -0.372

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 790 100.0% 34.17 100.0% 0.023 -0.1363 0.697
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 205 100.0% 27.94 100.0% -0.745 -0.623 0.112
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 447 100.0% 28.11 100.0% 0.297 0.1292 -0.608
Downpour Drenches the World 51 100.0% 25.37 100.0% 0.094 0.2728 -0.254
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 38 100.0% 22.47 100.0% 0.363 -0.3588 0.691
Eyes Watch From the Trees 418 100.0% 31.51 100.0% 0.854 0.2647 0.42
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 379 100.0% 28.36 100.0% 0.159 -0.3121 -0.375
Finder of Paths Unseen 40 100.0% 25.6 100.0% 0.095 0.789 -0.11
Fractured Days Split the Sky 307 100.0% 33.85 100.0% -0.655 0.029 0.323
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 143 100.0% 28.6 100.0% -0.127 -0.228 -0.286
Heart of the Wildfire 360 100.0% 30.16 100.0% 0.154 0.3979 -0.186
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 645 100.0% 36.85 100.0% 0.258 -0.1921 0.271
Lightning's Swift Strike 221 332.65% 26.1 211.76% 0.711 0.9144 -0.576
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 46 57.78% 30.0 69.57% 0.259 -0.438 -0.048
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 451 40.27% 31.2 78.71% -0.397 -0.6371 0.855
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 506 41.67% 29.19 72.92% 0.244 0.084 -0.007
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 498 100.0% 32.55 100.0% 0.111 -0.0338 -0.02
Many Minds Move as One 283 100.0% 31.48 100.0% 0.275 0.0538 0.548
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 366 100.0% 31.65 100.0% -0.125 -0.134 -0.055
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 418 100.0% 29.44 100.0% -0.626 -0.768 -0.041
River Surges in Sunlight 272 236.84% 29.33 163.24% 0.051 0.0541 -0.252
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 604 37.39% 28.35 73.01% -0.345 -0.0753 -0.044
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 31 35.48% 27.19 70.97% 0.025 -0.1042 -0.238
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 469 100.0% 34.7 100.0% -0.168 -0.3817 0.415
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 64 651.25% 24.02 381.25% -0.373 0.0625 0.271
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 32 61.29% 29.75 59.38% 0.308 0.3074 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 13 50.0% 22.08 69.23% 0.328 0.3198 0.043
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 353 40.06% 27.71 78.19% 0.748 0.6757 -0.314
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 379 42.05% 27.05 77.31% 0.186 0.2443 0.602
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 372 101.61% 33.28 102.69% 0.38 0.2516 -1.012
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 16 62.5% 17.56 37.5% -0.227 -0.5894 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 207 100.0% 29.54 100.0% -0.182 0.2251 -0.144
Shroud of Silent Mist 214 100.0% 27.05 100.0% -0.029 0.2855 -0.323
Starlight Seeks its Form 151 100.0% 30.33 100.0% -0.294 -0.5669 -0.113
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 649 100.0% 34.62 100.0% 0.125 -0.3699 -0.017
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 311 100.0% 30.15 100.0% -0.032 -0.0014 0.141
Thunderspeaker 389 101.29% 32.1 101.29% -0.373 -0.3924 -0.131
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 8 37.5% 14.5 37.5% -0.567 -0.63 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 304 100.0% 29.14 100.0% -0.281 -0.2193 0.153
Volcano Looming High 339 100.0% 28.67 100.0% -0.492 -0.4817 -0.155

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 81.93%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 68.9%
Guard the Healing Land 86.12%
Rituals of Destruction 71.37%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2814 21.03 4.34%
II 3660 31.04 43.42%
III 5052 34.74 75.4%
IV 3151 38.02 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 121
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3754
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1538
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3122
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 308
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1256
Lose: Adversary condition 1943
Win: Sacrifice victory 27
Lose: Scenario condition 176
Win: Scenario condition 94
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2279
Lose: Spirit destroyed 59

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.242 Win Model: -0.128

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.173 Win Model: 0.016
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 7916 44.77% 24.65 51.14%
2 3588 49.14% 27.82 64.07%
3 1738 46.96% 31.7 70.66%
4 1205 39.6% 33.64 74.44%
5 40 35.9% 24.4 77.5%
6 190 23.53% 29.65 80.53%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)