Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 33.33% 29.83 83.33% 0.217 0.7124 0.0
Blitz 0 162 44.38% 25.14 50.0% -0.956 -0.5131 -0.131
Dahan Insurrection 4 105 38.1% 43.72 53.33% -0.497 -0.3993 -0.325
Despicable Theft 2 34 50.0% 29.53 52.94% 0.532 1.0305 -0.25
Elemental Invocation 1 70 58.57% 30.46 42.86% 0.0 0.5458 -0.259
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 852 23.71% 40.21 58.69% -0.677 -0.4457 0.2
Powers Long Forgotten 1 88 56.82% 28.22 51.14% 0.241 0.6486 0.068
Rituals of Terror 3 53 35.85% 36.25 62.26% 0.035 -0.2006 0.596
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 67 62.69% 28.79 46.27% -0.536 -0.3103 -0.231
Second Wave 0 725 37.15% 25.86 72.0% 0.101 0.7938 -0.481
The Great River 3 39 38.46% 24.15 17.95% -0.285 1.2962 -0.354
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 33.4 80.0% 0.0 0.7865 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 64 56.25% 28.58 51.56% 0.348 1.229 -0.489

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6871 45.29% 25.24 53.28% -0.036 0.6273 -0.335
1 Thematic 390 52.45% 25.47 41.28% -0.372 0.6844 -0.613
2 Archipelago 13 38.46% 26.31 76.92% 0.0 0.4709 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2202 50.28% 28.51 66.03% 0.22 0.7378 0.161
2 Coastline 285 45.94% 26.22 63.51% 0.293 0.4941 -0.981
2 Fragment 48 47.92% 29.0 77.08% 0.179 0.477 0.814
2 Heart 36 50.0% 26.39 69.44% 0.223 0.684 0.858
2 Opposite Shores 371 42.66% 27.89 71.16% 0.014 0.5524 -0.178
2 Thematic 244 55.19% 31.02 51.23% -0.308 0.4743 -0.344
2 Top to Top 61 45.76% 28.59 75.41% 0.132 0.2596 -0.394
3 Archipelago 7 42.86% 37.14 71.43% 0.0 -0.2184 0.0
3 Coastline 11 54.55% 28.55 54.55% -0.548 -1.0555 0.227
3 Other 72 39.44% 29.64 69.44% 0.707 0.0431 0.206
3 Round (Default) 1443 47.6% 32.83 72.56% 0.22 0.5243 0.261
3 Sunrise 4 25.0% 23.25 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 67 53.73% 31.94 65.67% -0.265 -0.0574 -0.375
4 Archipelago 8 57.14% 23.88 25.0% -0.392 -0.4292 0.0
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67% 0.0 -0.0373 0.0
4 Leaf 8 62.5% 23.25 50.0% 0.0 -0.1019 0.0
4 Other 38 29.73% 34.92 94.74% -0.712 -1.4263 0.554
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 145 38.73% 39.52 79.31% -0.091 0.0124 -0.021
4 Trapezoid (Default) 933 39.27% 33.52 74.6% 0.242 0.3202 -0.414
5 Other 52 50.0% 31.77 86.54% -0.223 -0.7397 0.256
5 Thematic 16 46.67% 34.38 81.25% 0.0 -0.2873 0.207
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.1464 -0.432
6 Other 23 4.35% 32.83 91.3% 0.251 0.2953 0.491
6 Star 12 33.33% 33.83 100.0% 0.0 0.7704 0.0
6 Thematic 41 27.5% 34.56 95.12% -0.003 0.2381 -0.492
6 Two Centers (Default) 74 28.77% 29.0 82.43% 0.132 0.3233 -0.23
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.0 0.1488 -0.181
7 Other 2 50.0% 27.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.4839 -0.327

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 396 27.01 38.89% -0.747 1.2238 -0.158
Aid From Lesser Spirits 433 30.71 53.58% -0.793 0.9849 0.392
All Things Weaken 428 25.31 35.51% -1.931 0.1182 -0.291
Back Against the Wall 386 29.45 47.15% -0.234 1.705 0.144
Disintegrating Ecosystem 383 25.64 38.64% -1.434 0.694 0.214
Downward Spiral 502 24.73 34.86% -0.914 1.0474 0.134
Erosion of Will 471 25.92 40.13% -0.651 1.4309 -0.529
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 183 28.58 53.01% 0.022 0.5241 0.111
Memory Fades to Dust 456 24.67 40.57% -0.43 1.7108 0.08
Power Corrodes the Spirit 464 24.07 37.72% -1.094 0.8868 -0.338
Promising Farmlands 403 26.02 38.71% -1.452 0.5701 0.15
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 133 28.57 60.15% -0.229 0.2672 -0.29
Thriving Communities 456 25.31 36.84% -0.788 1.2711 0.188
Unnatural Proliferation 507 27.54 41.22% -0.933 1.0242 0.223
Untended Land Crumbles 488 24.8 33.61% -1.118 0.9155 0.1

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2959 45.4% 29.0 64.48% -0.423 0.3135 -0.046
B 2938 45.16% 28.66 65.72% -0.332 0.3651 0.061
C 3491 42.92% 29.07 67.57% 0.203 0.6726 0.014
D 2873 45.9% 28.92 66.03% 0.033 0.742 0.04
E 3125 44.13% 29.55 66.08% -0.053 0.4914 0.383
F 2627 45.02% 29.19 65.4% 0.052 0.7136 -0.369
G 2259 45.21% 29.28 64.85% 0.293 0.9236 -0.216
H 2293 46.47% 30.04 66.99% -0.086 0.5787 -0.283
East 623 45.69% 33.15 59.55% -0.942 -0.2809 -0.681
Northeast 376 44.99% 33.89 61.44% 0.157 0.8173 -0.511
Northwest 288 50.0% 33.22 62.85% 0.49 1.1003 0.6
Southeast 209 39.81% 34.84 73.21% 0.641 1.172 -0.126
Southwest 206 46.31% 30.78 66.5% -0.903 0.0657 -0.188
West 548 52.21% 31.17 58.03% -0.655 0.1506 -0.604

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 248 0.0% 15.25 58.47% -0.792 1.4365 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 342 43.55% 16.51 50.88% -0.367 -0.1404 -0.53
Skip Initial Invader Actions 335 17.19% 30.79 77.31% 0.654 -0.3257 -0.165
Start of Game Growth 449 24.23% 30.57 73.94% 0.333 -0.1238 -0.424
Unlimited Undo 1120 37.93% 27.34 66.96% 0.305 -0.2469 0.277
Using Tokens but Not Events 1414 25.26% 23.91 68.74% -0.488 -0.3325 -0.396

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 733 100.0% 35.37 100.0% 0.29 0.2146 0.727
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 195 100.0% 28.42 100.0% -0.265 -0.1866 0.131
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 404 100.0% 28.87 100.0% 0.245 0.0203 -0.621
Downpour Drenches the World 32 100.0% 29.59 100.0% 0.576 0.8412 -0.242
Eyes Watch From the Trees 393 100.0% 31.89 100.0% 0.118 -0.3855 0.382
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 353 100.0% 29.07 100.0% 0.369 -0.2179 -0.462
Finder of Paths Unseen 25 100.0% 28.56 100.0% -0.523 -0.1672 -0.319
Fractured Days Split the Sky 287 100.0% 34.68 100.0% -0.119 -0.0372 0.265
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 116 100.0% 30.68 100.0% 0.608 0.5134 -0.222
Heart of the Wildfire 327 100.0% 30.58 100.0% -0.525 -0.1198 -0.07
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 616 100.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.379 -0.2242 0.243
Lightning's Swift Strike 193 353.05% 27.3 214.51% 0.075 0.4394 -0.532
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 27 55.56% 30.41 81.48% 0.081 -0.6677 0.191
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 437 40.42% 31.52 79.41% -0.571 -1.1352 0.768
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 482 42.25% 29.63 73.86% -0.29 -0.7846 -0.008
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 481 100.0% 32.77 100.0% 0.194 0.0422 0.038
Many Minds Move as One 257 100.0% 32.63 100.0% 0.475 -0.1114 0.398
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 333 100.0% 32.34 100.0% -0.313 -0.4832 -0.007
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 384 100.0% 30.35 100.0% -0.35 -0.4058 -0.095
River Surges in Sunlight 244 241.96% 30.7 161.89% -0.171 -0.2456 -0.27
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 572 37.79% 28.96 74.3% -0.401 0.0253 0.024
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 20 35.0% 29.7 80.0% -0.286 -0.6273 -0.239
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 433 100.0% 36.06 100.0% 0.082 -0.1113 0.434
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 56 714.93% 24.46 373.21% 0.462 0.9367 0.323
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 20 65.0% 32.75 60.0% -0.303 -0.1236 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 5 20.0% 23.6 100.0% 0.067 0.122 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 335 40.36% 27.99 79.1% 0.49 0.4669 -0.258
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 358 42.0% 27.49 79.05% 0.053 0.1686 0.75
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 354 100.0% 33.79 100.0% -0.061 -0.2522 -1.017
Shifting Memory of Ages 173 100.0% 32.17 100.0% -0.259 -0.0438 -0.117
Shroud of Silent Mist 195 100.0% 27.91 100.0% -0.47 -0.3362 -0.439
Starlight Seeks its Form 121 100.0% 33.17 100.0% -0.558 -0.6725 -0.014
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 613 100.0% 35.32 100.0% 0.118 -0.1204 -0.078
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 297 100.0% 30.61 100.0% 0.482 0.612 0.425
Thunderspeaker 363 100.0% 33.04 100.0% 0.547 0.5294 -0.036
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 282 100.0% 29.91 100.0% 0.396 0.1807 0.241
Volcano Looming High 297 100.0% 29.91 100.0% -0.234 -0.255 -0.079

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 81.54%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 68.01%
Guard the Healing Land 85.72%
Rituals of Destruction 70.75%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2369 22.65 4.73%
II 3393 31.08 43.97%
III 4776 34.66 75.96%
IV 2959 37.91 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 111
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3578
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1443
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2930
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1169
Lose: Adversary condition 1806
Win: Sacrifice victory 26
Lose: Scenario condition 168
Win: Scenario condition 88
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2123
Lose: Spirit destroyed 55

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.08 Win Model: -0.206

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.31 Win Model: 0.427
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 7293 45.7% 25.23 52.6%
2 3281 49.33% 28.52 65.8%
3 1580 47.1% 32.61 72.59%
4 1156 39.69% 34.19 75.26%
5 31 41.94% 28.94 90.32%
6 156 24.03% 31.77 87.18%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)