Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.342 0.1403 0.0
Blitz 0 155 44.44% 25.05 50.32% -0.645 -0.3877 -0.032
Dahan Insurrection 4 102 38.24% 44.2 53.92% -0.338 0.0754 -0.064
Despicable Theft 2 32 50.0% 29.66 50.0% -0.088 0.3584 -0.259
Elemental Invocation 1 68 57.35% 30.82 44.12% -0.231 0.2548 -0.224
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 794 24.06% 40.64 60.58% -0.327 -0.0212 0.294
Powers Long Forgotten 1 82 58.54% 28.18 48.78% 0.701 0.883 0.121
Rituals of Terror 3 50 34.0% 36.4 62.0% 0.118 0.2396 0.599
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 66 62.12% 29.0 46.97% 0.722 1.1374 -0.219
Second Wave 0 678 37.46% 25.79 72.12% 0.647 1.2125 -0.284
The Great River 3 37 37.84% 23.65 16.22% -0.639 0.7582 -0.357
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 30.75 75.0% -0.323 0.203 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 59 57.63% 28.56 49.15% 0.52 1.6815 -0.499

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6473 45.79% 25.26 53.24% -0.368 0.6484 -0.13
1 Thematic 372 52.03% 25.58 41.67% 0.224 1.3963 -0.468
2 Archipelago 13 38.46% 26.31 76.92% 0.0 0.9835 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2043 50.13% 28.53 66.28% -0.301 0.4501 0.369
2 Coastline 266 47.35% 26.34 62.78% -0.118 0.4849 -0.884
2 Fragment 48 47.92% 29.0 77.08% 0.315 0.7627 0.52
2 Heart 32 50.0% 25.63 68.75% 0.087 0.6255 0.956
2 Opposite Shores 349 41.91% 27.8 71.63% 0.717 1.7093 0.038
2 Thematic 225 55.41% 31.12 52.89% -0.373 0.3259 -0.801
2 Top to Top 59 47.37% 28.51 74.58% 0.269 0.7791 -0.317
3 Archipelago 7 42.86% 37.14 71.43% 0.0 0.1732 0.0
3 Coastline 10 60.0% 28.6 60.0% 0.0 -0.7829 0.306
3 Other 70 39.13% 29.34 68.57% 0.048 0.0128 -0.019
3 Round (Default) 1369 47.24% 32.73 72.39% 0.191 0.7853 0.255
3 Sunrise 4 25.0% 23.25 100.0% 0.031 0.0676 0.0
3 Thematic 65 52.31% 32.62 67.69% -0.311 -0.3491 -0.391
4 Archipelago 7 50.0% 25.43 28.57% 0.0 -0.7111 0.0
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67% 0.0 0.1166 0.0
4 Leaf 8 62.5% 23.25 50.0% 0.033 0.5956 0.0
4 Other 38 29.73% 34.92 94.74% 0.097 -0.1568 0.221
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 139 40.44% 39.96 79.14% 0.0 0.5291 0.057
4 Trapezoid (Default) 896 39.33% 33.5 74.55% 0.369 0.3421 -0.354
5 Other 45 51.11% 32.09 86.67% -0.111 0.0575 0.315
5 Thematic 15 42.86% 33.27 80.0% 0.01 -0.2671 0.241
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.2557 -0.444
6 Other 18 5.56% 36.06 88.89% 0.0 0.8094 0.25
6 Star 10 40.0% 36.2 100.0% 0.1 0.8836 0.0
6 Thematic 32 32.26% 35.88 96.88% -0.222 -0.5004 -0.207
6 Two Centers (Default) 51 32.0% 30.1 78.43% -0.203 -0.2975 -0.236
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.012 -0.5651 -0.213
7 Other 2 50.0% 27.0 50.0% 0.0 -1.1521 -0.343

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 373 26.6 37.8% -1.634 0.2688 -0.259
Aid From Lesser Spirits 406 30.91 54.43% -0.169 1.5612 0.512
All Things Weaken 400 25.49 36.0% -1.262 0.7238 -0.2
Back Against the Wall 363 29.0 46.28% -0.456 1.3601 0.161
Disintegrating Ecosystem 369 25.77 39.02% -0.871 1.1798 0.271
Downward Spiral 474 24.65 34.81% -1.475 0.5177 0.073
Erosion of Will 447 26.08 40.49% -0.756 1.3275 -0.448
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 176 28.69 53.41% 0.147 0.5882 0.187
Memory Fades to Dust 430 24.32 39.77% -1.596 0.4879 0.032
Power Corrodes the Spirit 443 23.96 37.7% -1.836 0.1025 -0.41
Promising Farmlands 383 26.03 38.9% -0.91 1.1355 0.201
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 127 28.87 61.42% -0.059 0.3657 -0.198
Thriving Communities 427 25.23 35.83% -1.107 0.8771 0.172
Unnatural Proliferation 468 27.56 41.03% -0.505 1.4591 0.336
Untended Land Crumbles 468 24.93 33.76% -0.92 1.0736 0.091

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2777 45.69% 29.05 64.6% 0.164 0.9611 -0.021
B 2735 45.28% 28.77 65.63% 0.45 1.1932 0.051
C 3293 42.89% 28.96 67.45% 0.125 0.6935 -0.006
D 2683 46.04% 28.96 65.75% 0.127 0.9226 -0.043
E 2917 44.36% 29.62 65.99% 0.501 1.1478 0.385
F 2469 45.54% 29.29 65.29% 0.274 0.9983 -0.434
G 2130 45.78% 29.36 64.37% -0.119 0.613 -0.218
H 2149 46.78% 30.04 66.68% 0.523 1.2356 -0.308
East 579 46.23% 33.51 59.93% -0.276 0.4922 -0.643
Northeast 348 45.45% 34.34 61.78% -0.994 -0.1337 -0.434
Northwest 263 51.35% 33.41 62.74% 0.08 1.1565 0.338
Southeast 191 41.49% 35.31 72.25% -0.55 0.1564 -0.072
Southwest 190 48.13% 31.08 66.32% 0.236 1.3609 -0.039
West 505 53.11% 31.5 59.01% 0.832 1.7859 -0.584

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 232 0.0% 15.42 58.62% -1.049 1.0808 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 310 42.51% 16.82 51.29% -0.258 -0.0835 -0.398
Skip Initial Invader Actions 317 17.84% 30.69 76.34% 0.313 0.1712 -0.183
Start of Game Growth 425 25.0% 30.5 72.94% -0.119 -0.8798 -0.473
Unlimited Undo 1069 38.2% 27.36 66.7% 0.689 0.0853 0.283
Using Tokens but Not Events 1283 24.87% 23.7 69.06% 0.195 0.0381 -0.32

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 691 100.0% 35.38 100.0% 0.188 0.0733 0.726
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 184 100.0% 28.63 100.0% -0.033 0.0631 0.251
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 379 100.0% 28.93 100.0% -0.048 -0.2094 -0.578
Downpour Drenches the World 14 100.0% 23.71 100.0% -0.311 -0.0579 -0.392
Eyes Watch From the Trees 362 100.0% 32.12 100.0% 1.187 0.7489 0.411
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 324 100.0% 28.93 100.0% -0.146 -0.6341 -0.566
Finder of Paths Unseen 9 100.0% 28.22 100.0% -0.851 -0.488 -0.329
Fractured Days Split the Sky 276 100.0% 34.45 100.0% 0.322 0.3775 0.261
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 99 100.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.659 -0.6913 -0.695
Heart of the Wildfire 304 100.0% 30.82 100.0% 0.125 0.2996 0.008
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 594 100.0% 37.5 100.0% -0.073 -0.5291 0.144
Lightning's Swift Strike 177 365.64% 27.87 216.95% -0.025 0.2493 -0.499
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 13 46.15% 31.15 84.62% 0.697 -0.0798 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 422 39.95% 31.78 80.33% 0.511 -0.1321 0.914
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 464 42.2% 29.91 73.71% -0.305 -0.5718 0.034
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 460 100.0% 32.87 100.0% -1.08 -1.3465 0.086
Many Minds Move as One 246 100.0% 32.57 100.0% 0.186 -0.4166 0.47
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 309 100.0% 32.77 100.0% 0.103 -0.0818 0.123
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 349 100.0% 30.87 100.0% -0.557 -0.5358 -0.025
River Surges in Sunlight 224 241.28% 31.0 163.39% -0.692 -0.7262 -0.178
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 547 38.43% 29.12 74.04% 0.61 1.0412 0.026
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 3 33.33% 27.67 100.0% 0.569 0.2684 0.0
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 406 100.0% 35.68 100.0% 0.202 0.1488 0.35
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 52 716.13% 24.56 363.46% 0.186 0.5957 0.411
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 1 100.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.28 0.2864 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 3 33.33% 24.67 100.0% 0.363 0.0166 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 325 41.61% 28.1 78.46% 0.621 0.6401 -0.311
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 336 41.64% 27.7 80.06% 0.667 0.8502 0.667
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 334 100.0% 34.06 100.0% 0.589 0.3023 -1.008
Shifting Memory of Ages 156 100.0% 31.69 100.0% 0.339 0.4139 -0.274
Shroud of Silent Mist 181 100.0% 27.4 100.0% -0.809 -0.5726 -0.142
Starlight Seeks its Form 100 100.0% 34.61 100.0% -0.157 -0.2965 0.125
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 585 100.0% 35.65 100.0% -0.445 -0.6272 0.004
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 271 100.0% 30.56 100.0% 0.717 0.9018 0.148
Thunderspeaker 340 100.0% 33.01 100.0% -0.893 -0.8285 0.011
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 265 100.0% 30.08 100.0% -0.697 -0.7876 0.292
Volcano Looming High 271 100.0% 29.83 100.0% -0.182 -0.1863 -0.227

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 81.16%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 67.81%
Guard the Healing Land 85.56%
Rituals of Destruction 70.34%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2221 22.56 4.55%
II 3194 30.98 43.96%
III 4490 34.53 76.06%
IV 2774 37.77 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 100
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3367
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1359
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2745
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1094
Lose: Adversary condition 1680
Win: Sacrifice victory 25
Lose: Scenario condition 158
Win: Scenario condition 83
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2017
Lose: Spirit destroyed 51

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.996 Win Model: -0.249

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.371 Win Model: 0.512
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6867 46.14% 25.26 52.6%
2 3059 49.31% 28.52 66.03%
3 1500 46.75% 32.54 72.53%
4 1113 39.87% 34.24 75.29%
5 22 40.91% 27.95 90.91%
6 118 26.72% 33.47 85.59%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)