Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.192 0.6881 0.0
Blitz 0 116 60.18% 24.72 63.79% -0.289 0.1542 -0.698
Dahan Insurrection 4 120 36.13% 49.27 70.83% -0.443 -0.3462 -0.297
Despicable Theft 2 60 43.33% 32.9 73.33% -0.639 -0.14 0.531
Elemental Invocation 1 61 65.57% 29.82 70.49% -0.096 0.4497 -0.309
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 793 28.32% 44.15 71.5% -0.258 -0.0267 0.846
Powers Long Forgotten 1 57 80.7% 27.14 57.89% 0.354 0.7619 0.486
Rituals of Terror 3 52 61.54% 39.83 69.23% 0.0 -0.236 -0.067
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 34 73.53% 37.0 67.65% 0.664 0.8906 -0.497
Second Wave 0 427 51.44% 27.58 70.26% -0.829 -0.1361 0.234
The Great River 3 53 66.04% 26.21 41.51% 0.125 1.7065 -0.477
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 27.5 75.0% 0.0 0.7865 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 69 71.93% 32.26 62.32% 0.0 0.8809 -0.239

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6479 59.07% 28.76 71.14% 0.023 0.6859 -0.458
1 Thematic 275 61.65% 30.63 62.18% -0.349 0.7079 -0.157
2 Archipelago 18 38.89% 32.44 72.22% -0.431 0.0404 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1814 57.89% 30.42 73.59% -0.238 0.2799 0.213
2 Coastline 236 49.79% 29.4 77.54% 0.435 0.6356 0.582
2 Fragment 46 55.56% 32.09 69.57% 0.327 0.6256 0.793
2 Heart 17 52.94% 28.94 70.59% -0.178 0.2824 0.584
2 Opposite Shores 452 45.68% 27.57 80.97% -0.112 0.4267 -0.469
2 Thematic 150 64.43% 34.77 64.0% 0.201 0.9835 -0.172
2 Top to Top 52 64.0% 26.73 67.31% 0.0 0.128 -0.087
3 Archipelago 12 58.33% 31.42 66.67% 0.0 -0.2184 -0.726
3 Coastline 24 66.67% 35.46 58.33% 0.125 -0.3821 -0.392
3 Other 53 47.17% 31.55 84.91% 0.243 -0.4213 0.055
3 Round (Default) 1015 52.0% 31.49 73.0% 0.13 0.4346 0.164
3 Sunrise 4 75.0% 17.0 75.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 64 76.56% 31.34 48.44% 0.142 0.3504 0.478
4 Archipelago 16 68.75% 27.31 25.0% 0.0 -0.0374 -1.24
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 33.86 71.43% 0.0 -0.0373 0.758
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 18.5 25.0% 0.0 -0.1019 -0.564
4 Other 45 46.67% 28.78 71.11% 0.099 -0.6148 -0.696
4 Thematic 162 30.0% 47.65 82.1% 0.249 0.3524 -0.819
4 Trapezoid (Default) 824 33.04% 34.0 84.34% -0.336 -0.2584 0.574
5 Archipelago 5 60.0% 31.0 60.0% -0.232 -0.3292 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5876 0.0
5 Other 47 30.43% 32.89 91.49% -0.099 -0.6157 0.594
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.88 87.5% 0.0 -0.2873 0.0
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 28.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Other 22 9.09% 26.59 81.82% 0.007 0.0517 -0.104
6 Star 7 33.33% 27.57 100.0% 0.085 0.8556 0.177
6 Thematic 44 20.93% 36.34 88.64% 0.043 0.2841 0.544
6 Two Centers (Default) 64 30.16% 30.75 89.06% -0.053 0.1387 0.56
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Other 4 100.0% 20.25 0.0% 0.0 -0.4839 -0.196

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 447 31.36 57.94% -0.795 1.1757 0.087
Aid From Lesser Spirits 390 31.75 63.33% -1.116 0.6616 -0.017
All Things Weaken 487 26.85 48.05% -1.492 0.5563 -0.249
Back Against the Wall 390 31.31 51.79% -1.016 0.9233 -0.058
Disintegrating Ecosystem 431 25.74 48.26% -1.912 0.2159 -0.666
Downward Spiral 563 26.86 61.46% -0.911 1.0499 -0.604
Erosion of Will 449 27.9 51.67% -0.23 1.8512 -0.242
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 184 31.28 88.59% -0.972 -0.4701 -0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 557 27.93 54.58% -1.154 0.9873 -0.446
Power Corrodes the Spirit 482 27.87 56.43% -0.955 1.0257 -0.357
Promising Farmlands 402 26.42 48.01% -1.414 0.6072 -0.747
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 132 32.17 90.15% 0.69 1.1864 0.907
Thriving Communities 482 24.92 51.45% -1.888 0.1708 -0.983
Unnatural Proliferation 532 28.55 53.2% -1.746 0.211 -0.443
Untended Land Crumbles 502 27.01 54.38% -0.874 1.1596 -0.365

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2604 50.46% 30.07 75.08% -0.084 0.6519 -0.242
B 2668 53.54% 29.98 74.06% -0.596 0.1014 -0.37
C 2964 49.83% 31.19 76.72% -0.038 0.4316 0.092
D 2513 50.88% 29.97 74.81% 0.358 1.0675 -0.074
E 2635 52.62% 31.03 74.84% -0.223 0.3214 0.146
F 2178 50.16% 30.15 74.66% -0.13 0.5311 -0.166
G 1997 51.9% 30.01 74.71% -0.17 0.4612 0.038
H 2021 50.56% 31.0 76.2% 0.817 1.4814 0.044
East 508 48.91% 38.69 70.67% 0.036 0.6978 0.132
Northeast 301 50.67% 38.83 70.43% 0.0 0.6599 0.888
Northwest 274 50.74% 39.66 71.9% -0.193 0.4178 0.116
Southeast 199 34.01% 38.62 75.88% 0.335 0.8659 -0.952
Southwest 179 40.91% 36.63 73.18% -0.474 0.4943 0.137
West 486 51.04% 37.93 69.14% 0.582 1.388 -0.446

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 299 0.0% 21.75 79.93% 0.227 2.4563 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 376 42.75% 23.18 78.72% 0.539 0.7656 0.803
Skip Initial Invader Actions 429 15.23% 36.29 93.47% 0.07 -0.9101 0.644
Start of Game Growth 524 21.88% 37.22 92.56% 0.046 -0.4105 1.232
Unlimited Undo 1050 46.61% 31.68 80.48% 0.708 0.1565 0.53
Using Tokens but Not Events 1492 36.61% 26.35 87.33% 0.5 0.6548 0.379

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 457 100.0% 32.93 100.0% 0.422 0.3472 0.274
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 307 100.0% 30.58 100.0% -0.11 -0.0313 0.025
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 330 100.0% 29.31 100.0% -0.136 -0.3601 -0.407
Downpour Drenches the World 21 100.0% 25.71 100.0% 0.136 0.4009 -0.595
Eyes Watch From the Trees 383 100.0% 31.77 100.0% 0.019 -0.4836 -0.277
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 340 100.0% 30.83 100.0% 0.405 -0.1817 -0.292
Finder of Paths Unseen 13 100.0% 29.77 100.0% -0.051 0.3046 0.391
Fractured Days Split the Sky 239 100.0% 33.43 100.0% -0.231 -0.1488 -0.463
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 139 100.0% 31.12 100.0% 0.338 0.2431 0.081
Heart of the Wildfire 222 100.0% 28.98 100.0% -0.259 0.1459 -0.294
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 479 100.0% 36.33 100.0% 0.743 0.1397 -0.313
Lightning's Swift Strike 204 294.42% 28.98 156.37% -0.489 -0.1237 0.323
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 10 40.0% 31.7 90.0% -0.378 -1.1267 -0.274
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 320 42.72% 34.04 82.19% -0.743 -1.3063 0.869
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 380 38.07% 33.1 85.0% 0.618 0.1237 0.66
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 483 100.0% 33.25 100.0% 0.631 0.4798 -0.376
Many Minds Move as One 241 100.0% 34.25 100.0% 0.375 -0.2114 0.554
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 481 100.0% 35.6 100.0% -0.092 -0.262 0.535
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 293 100.0% 27.92 100.0% -0.992 -1.0478 -0.345
River Surges in Sunlight 294 170.43% 37.98 136.05% 0.428 0.3537 0.371
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 430 44.19% 30.39 75.58% -0.584 -0.1579 -0.722
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 14 28.57% 30.07 92.86% 0.362 0.0211 0.472
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 303 100.0% 38.25 100.0% 0.288 0.0948 0.056
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 284 100.0% 40.55 100.0% 0.505 0.3138 -0.039
Shifting Memory of Ages 163 100.0% 30.84 100.0% 0.038 0.2525 -0.285
Shroud of Silent Mist 228 100.0% 26.23 100.0% 0.058 0.1925 0.084
Starlight Seeks its Form 105 100.0% 31.36 100.0% -1.086 -1.2005 -0.516
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 288 100.0% 31.45 100.0% -0.367 -0.6063 -0.043
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 343 100.0% 37.53 100.0% 0.447 0.577 0.329
Thunderspeaker 310 100.0% 35.89 100.0% -0.167 -0.1841 -0.008
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 240 100.0% 28.25 100.0% -0.445 -0.661 0.409
Vital Strength of the Earth 211 193.18% 27.48 135.55% 0.581 1.4793 0.102
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 4 33.33% 28.75 100.0% 0.315 0.7375 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 358 42.0% 27.49 79.05% -0.431 0.6832 -0.062
Volcano Looming High 240 100.0% 29.19 100.0% 0.198 0.1771 -0.114

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.33%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.9%
Favors Called Due 88.09%
Mantle of Dread 88.0%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 885 22.65 13.11%
II 3973 31.08 54.49%
III 5117 34.66 87.41%
IV 2005 37.91 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 116
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4391
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2083
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1984
Lose: Invader deck ran out 33
Lose: Adversary condition 777
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Scenario condition 168
Win: Scenario condition 128
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2175
Lose: Spirit destroyed 81

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.522 Win Model: -0.186

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.121 Win Model: 0.379
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6784 59.15% 28.85 70.77%
2 2801 55.96% 30.07 74.12%
3 1144 52.61% 31.47 72.38%
4 1076 33.94% 35.86 82.71%
5 35 23.53% 30.83 88.57%
6 140 26.28% 30.73 85.71%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)