Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.246 0.6864 0.0
Blitz 0 111 58.33% 24.69 64.86% -0.289 -0.0327 -0.517
Dahan Insurrection 4 118 36.75% 49.25 70.34% -0.264 0.0377 -0.272
Despicable Theft 2 56 41.07% 33.38 73.21% -0.708 -0.1633 0.522
Elemental Invocation 1 59 66.1% 30.07 71.19% 0.324 0.9355 -0.318
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 758 27.78% 44.17 72.16% -0.013 0.1812 0.851
Powers Long Forgotten 1 56 80.36% 27.21 57.14% 0.639 0.884 0.525
Rituals of Terror 3 52 61.54% 39.83 69.23% -0.258 -1.0945 -0.025
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 31 74.19% 36.19 64.52% 0.49 1.015 -0.498
Second Wave 0 417 50.99% 27.58 70.5% 0.063 0.6357 0.241
The Great River 3 52 65.38% 26.06 40.38% -0.475 1.1638 -0.477
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 27.5 75.0% -0.287 0.4585 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 69 71.93% 32.26 62.32% 0.0 1.0547 -0.171

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6305 59.13% 28.71 71.2% 0.222 0.6676 -0.419
1 Thematic 272 61.98% 30.58 62.13% -0.421 0.2107 -0.206
2 Archipelago 17 35.29% 33.59 76.47% 0.0 0.0128 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1775 58.09% 30.43 73.46% -0.27 0.0744 0.236
2 Coastline 233 50.43% 29.31 77.25% -0.227 -0.1437 0.541
2 Fragment 44 55.81% 31.68 68.18% 0.0 0.088 0.638
2 Heart 15 46.67% 30.47 73.33% 0.0 0.6116 0.606
2 Opposite Shores 448 45.41% 27.5 81.03% 0.454 0.8321 -0.444
2 Thematic 144 63.64% 34.82 63.89% -0.136 0.3811 -0.114
2 Top to Top 52 64.0% 26.73 67.31% -0.229 -0.0896 -0.079
3 Archipelago 12 58.33% 31.42 66.67% -0.444 -1.4211 -0.698
3 Coastline 23 65.22% 35.52 56.52% 0.166 -0.4831 -0.394
3 Other 53 47.17% 31.55 84.91% 0.147 -0.9242 0.051
3 Round (Default) 989 52.46% 31.36 72.7% 0.281 0.4735 0.133
3 Sunrise 4 75.0% 17.0 75.0% 0.0 0.3199 0.0
3 Thematic 63 77.78% 31.35 47.62% -0.134 -0.3796 0.47
4 Archipelago 16 68.75% 27.31 25.0% -0.517 -0.919 -1.279
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 33.86 71.43% 0.0 0.1977 0.749
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 18.5 25.0% 0.0 0.4908 -0.546
4 Other 45 46.67% 28.78 71.11% 0.042 -0.4986 -0.669
4 Thematic 160 29.75% 47.81 81.88% 0.0 0.0058 -0.785
4 Trapezoid (Default) 808 32.81% 34.19 84.65% 0.943 0.8018 0.636
5 Archipelago 3 33.33% 35.33 66.67% 0.065 -0.2523 0.0
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2575 0.0
5 Other 47 30.43% 32.89 91.49% 0.12 -0.0555 0.629
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.88 87.5% 0.0 -0.0346 0.0
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 28.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.7508 0.0
6 Other 21 9.52% 25.05 80.95% -0.064 0.6327 -0.121
6 Star 6 40.0% 28.67 100.0% 0.129 0.6611 0.197
6 Thematic 42 21.95% 35.74 88.1% -0.151 0.3478 0.544
6 Two Centers (Default) 60 28.81% 30.97 90.0% 0.18 0.406 0.534
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.0
7 Other 4 100.0% 20.25 0.0% -0.166 -0.938 -0.216

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 438 31.21 57.99% -0.652 1.2572 0.104
Aid From Lesser Spirits 384 31.77 63.28% -0.718 0.967 0.019
All Things Weaken 471 26.85 48.2% -1.002 0.9982 -0.25
Back Against the Wall 381 31.32 51.44% -0.827 1.121 -0.007
Disintegrating Ecosystem 418 25.94 49.04% -1.449 0.6168 -0.562
Downward Spiral 539 26.74 60.85% -0.775 1.1878 -0.593
Erosion of Will 441 27.9 51.47% -0.082 2.0256 -0.152
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 182 31.29 88.46% -0.584 0.032 -0.115
Memory Fades to Dust 546 27.99 54.58% -0.978 1.0796 -0.379
Power Corrodes the Spirit 464 27.6 55.82% -0.882 1.0969 -0.418
Promising Farmlands 396 26.47 47.98% -1.439 0.6632 -0.681
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 129 32.02 89.92% 0.434 0.7639 0.92
Thriving Communities 472 25.04 52.33% -0.629 1.4202 -0.851
Unnatural Proliferation 522 28.59 53.45% -0.949 0.9948 -0.394
Untended Land Crumbles 495 26.88 54.55% -0.523 1.5032 -0.392

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2534 50.2% 30.04 75.1% 0.116 0.8756 -0.306
B 2614 53.36% 30.02 74.41% 0.384 1.0609 -0.343
C 2894 49.68% 31.3 76.85% -0.113 0.4119 0.108
D 2453 50.97% 29.89 74.56% 0.062 0.789 -0.081
E 2562 52.77% 31.02 74.82% 0.306 0.8663 0.182
F 2124 50.6% 30.2 74.72% 0.046 0.7356 -0.193
G 1947 52.08% 29.89 74.52% 0.145 0.8402 0.001
H 1978 50.96% 30.97 76.04% 0.464 1.1245 0.048
East 497 48.98% 38.78 70.42% -0.351 0.3282 0.197
Northeast 297 51.36% 38.84 70.03% -0.05 0.52 0.924
Northwest 271 51.31% 39.65 71.59% -0.303 0.5388 0.153
Southeast 191 33.33% 38.76 75.92% -0.191 0.3354 -0.919
Southwest 171 39.29% 36.77 73.68% 0.166 1.1067 0.145
West 474 50.85% 37.96 68.99% -0.113 0.8869 -0.589

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 296 0.0% 21.74 79.73% 0.445 2.5642 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 363 41.39% 22.57 78.24% 0.316 0.5566 0.575
Skip Initial Invader Actions 428 15.23% 36.32 93.46% 0.167 -0.2015 0.679
Start of Game Growth 520 22.05% 37.19 92.5% 0.206 -0.4165 1.152
Unlimited Undo 1015 46.24% 31.56 80.3% 0.28 -0.3507 0.58
Using Tokens but Not Events 1445 35.96% 26.34 87.61% 1.336 1.3801 0.458

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 447 100.0% 32.82 100.0% 0.593 0.5453 0.221
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 295 100.0% 30.33 100.0% -0.008 0.0563 -0.005
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 322 100.0% 29.29 100.0% -0.396 -0.6343 -0.385
Downpour Drenches the World 17 100.0% 22.94 100.0% -1.103 -0.7117 -0.589
Eyes Watch From the Trees 370 100.0% 31.88 100.0% 0.931 0.5159 -0.315
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 331 100.0% 30.69 100.0% -0.774 -1.3691 -0.265
Finder of Paths Unseen 7 100.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.386 0.7901 0.384
Fractured Days Split the Sky 235 100.0% 33.24 100.0% 0.186 0.2278 -0.461
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 131 100.0% 30.72 100.0% 0.54 0.5227 0.047
Heart of the Wildfire 219 100.0% 29.04 100.0% 0.006 0.335 -0.266
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 469 100.0% 36.25 100.0% 0.287 -0.347 -0.35
Lightning's Swift Strike 200 296.21% 28.83 155.0% 0.104 0.3776 0.319
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 8 37.5% 30.63 87.5% -0.255 -1.088 -0.249
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 312 41.88% 34.51 83.33% 0.825 0.2532 0.882
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 375 37.5% 32.96 84.8% 0.556 0.1309 0.694
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 477 100.0% 33.34 100.0% -0.488 -0.6952 -0.354
Many Minds Move as One 238 100.0% 34.01 100.0% 0.765 0.2525 0.408
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 471 100.0% 35.55 100.0% -0.867 -1.1494 0.499
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 285 100.0% 28.2 100.0% -0.579 -0.5466 -0.303
River Surges in Sunlight 288 170.19% 37.89 135.76% -0.141 -0.1353 0.31
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 422 44.07% 30.6 75.83% -0.385 0.0591 -0.71
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 13 30.77% 28.31 92.31% 0.361 0.1184 0.432
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 294 100.0% 38.62 100.0% -0.165 -0.3084 0.117
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 280 100.0% 40.48 100.0% 0.686 0.4243 -0.163
Shifting Memory of Ages 160 100.0% 30.84 100.0% 0.441 0.4634 -0.261
Shroud of Silent Mist 225 100.0% 26.11 100.0% 0.041 0.286 0.108
Starlight Seeks its Form 97 100.0% 31.84 100.0% -1.001 -1.2122 -0.41
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 285 100.0% 31.49 100.0% 0.169 -0.0008 0.01
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 339 100.0% 37.63 100.0% -0.54 -0.4296 0.337
Thunderspeaker 305 100.0% 35.9 100.0% -0.267 -0.3621 0.024
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 239 100.0% 28.33 100.0% 0.206 0.1085 0.44
Vital Strength of the Earth 203 192.89% 27.44 133.99% -0.764 0.1184 0.136
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.276 0.6766 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 346 42.01% 27.71 80.06% 0.214 1.2565 -0.102
Volcano Looming High 239 100.0% 29.06 100.0% 0.402 0.3864 -0.066

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.31%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.89%
Favors Called Due 88.12%
Mantle of Dread 88.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 869 22.62 13.12%
II 3873 31.05 54.69%
III 4998 34.62 87.35%
IV 1949 37.86 99.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 114
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4285
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2038
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1928
Lose: Invader deck ran out 33
Lose: Adversary condition 764
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Scenario condition 160
Win: Scenario condition 126
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2118
Lose: Spirit destroyed 80

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.308 Win Model: -0.238

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.033 Win Model: 0.263
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6603 59.2% 28.81 70.83%
2 2748 56.02% 30.05 74.02%
3 1116 53.04% 31.35 72.04%
4 1056 33.63% 36.05 82.95%
5 33 25.0% 30.0 87.88%
6 133 26.15% 30.62 85.71%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)