Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 50.0% 22.5 75.0% -0.414 -0.8612 0.0
Blitz 0 116 60.18% 24.72 63.79% -0.046 0.4103 -0.699
Dahan Insurrection 4 123 36.07% 49.02 70.73% -0.334 -0.3141 -0.339
Despicable Theft 2 62 43.55% 32.58 72.58% 0.04 0.5521 0.539
Elemental Invocation 1 62 64.52% 29.69 70.97% -0.19 0.5095 -0.305
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 816 29.48% 44.21 71.08% -0.0 0.0407 0.849
Powers Long Forgotten 1 57 80.7% 27.14 57.89% 0.313 0.8747 0.486
Rituals of Terror 3 52 61.54% 39.83 69.23% 0.0 -0.2878 -0.09
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 35 71.43% 37.46 68.57% 0.269 0.6996 -0.507
Second Wave 0 438 51.05% 27.72 70.32% -0.64 -0.1781 0.228
The Great River 3 53 66.04% 26.21 41.51% 0.141 1.9075 -0.462
Varied Terrains 2 5 80.0% 26.8 60.0% -0.224 0.6038 -0.316
Ward the Shores 2 69 71.93% 32.26 62.32% 0.0 0.744 -0.236

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6642 58.99% 28.76 71.14% -0.115 0.4349 -0.47
1 Thematic 277 61.94% 30.68 62.45% 0.126 1.1237 -0.166
2 Archipelago 18 38.89% 32.44 72.22% -0.208 0.4092 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1870 57.73% 30.42 73.64% -0.272 0.1381 0.251
2 Coastline 240 50.21% 29.41 77.92% 0.565 0.7009 0.506
2 Fragment 46 55.56% 32.09 69.57% 0.206 0.2008 0.78
2 Heart 17 52.94% 28.94 70.59% 0.0 0.4749 0.594
2 Opposite Shores 457 46.07% 27.53 80.53% -0.642 -0.2889 -0.464
2 Thematic 154 64.71% 35.08 64.29% 0.205 1.1348 -0.165
2 Top to Top 53 62.75% 26.74 67.92% 0.039 0.1654 -0.089
3 Archipelago 12 58.33% 31.42 66.67% 0.0 0.1788 -0.719
3 Coastline 24 66.67% 35.46 58.33% 0.141 -0.2757 -0.383
3 Other 53 47.17% 31.55 84.91% 0.0 -0.7192 0.032
3 Round (Default) 1031 51.97% 31.54 73.13% 0.366 0.5591 0.182
3 Sunrise 4 75.0% 17.0 75.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 64 76.56% 31.34 48.44% 0.061 0.0757 0.485
4 Archipelago 17 64.71% 28.12 29.41% 0.062 -0.3573 -1.204
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 33.86 71.43% 0.0 -0.0727 0.761
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 18.5 25.0% 0.0 -0.0965 -0.542
4 Other 47 46.81% 28.81 72.34% 0.137 -0.479 -0.666
4 Thematic 163 29.81% 47.51 81.6% -0.275 0.0073 -0.819
4 Trapezoid (Default) 837 32.79% 33.92 84.35% -0.379 -0.191 0.579
5 Archipelago 5 60.0% 31.0 60.0% -0.19 -0.5739 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1073 0.0
5 Other 49 33.33% 32.65 89.8% -0.182 -0.8123 0.489
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.88 87.5% 0.0 -0.9744 0.0
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 28.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.0703 0.0
6 Other 24 8.33% 26.58 83.33% 0.096 -0.1463 -0.099
6 Star 8 28.57% 27.25 100.0% 0.046 0.5921 0.176
6 Thematic 48 21.28% 35.44 87.5% -0.102 -0.0558 0.565
6 Two Centers (Default) 71 32.86% 30.59 87.32% 0.337 0.8005 0.576
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.221 0.0
7 Other 4 100.0% 20.25 0.0% 0.0 -0.3606 -0.192

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 454 31.19 57.71% -0.852 0.8781 0.089
Aid From Lesser Spirits 397 31.77 63.73% 0.268 1.8433 -0.011
All Things Weaken 501 27.0 48.1% -1.383 0.4946 -0.24
Back Against the Wall 395 31.27 51.9% -0.821 0.8161 -0.059
Disintegrating Ecosystem 442 25.9 48.19% -1.732 0.1106 -0.654
Downward Spiral 575 26.87 61.57% -1.229 0.4689 -0.665
Erosion of Will 460 27.92 51.74% -0.888 1.0122 -0.253
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 185 31.33 88.65% 0.188 0.6887 -0.182
Memory Fades to Dust 575 27.9 54.43% -1.628 0.248 -0.452
Power Corrodes the Spirit 492 27.98 56.91% 0.184 1.8888 -0.379
Promising Farmlands 409 26.5 48.17% -0.551 1.3246 -0.782
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 139 32.29 88.49% -0.386 -0.1754 0.719
Thriving Communities 490 24.94 51.63% -1.351 0.52 -1.005
Unnatural Proliferation 545 28.45 53.21% -1.772 -0.0183 -0.466
Untended Land Crumbles 514 27.1 53.89% -1.283 0.5309 -0.392

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2673 50.31% 30.14 75.35% 0.322 1.0998 -0.236
B 2738 53.61% 29.99 74.07% -0.46 0.2429 -0.396
C 3034 49.95% 31.17 76.53% -0.135 0.393 0.059
D 2574 50.82% 30.0 75.06% 0.597 1.3323 -0.044
E 2702 52.46% 31.0 74.87% -0.131 0.4529 0.143
F 2228 50.07% 30.08 74.64% -0.093 0.6138 -0.188
G 2051 51.67% 29.93 74.74% 0.186 0.8282 0.018
H 2058 50.57% 30.9 75.95% -0.19 0.4548 0.041
East 518 48.93% 38.62 70.66% 0.061 0.6524 0.138
Northeast 309 50.65% 38.68 70.55% -0.092 0.5845 0.898
Northwest 280 50.36% 39.41 71.79% 0.407 0.8447 0.121
Southeast 205 33.99% 38.4 75.61% 0.269 0.9322 -0.95
Southwest 185 40.66% 36.44 72.97% -0.728 0.4437 0.145
West 494 50.82% 37.82 69.03% 0.098 0.9162 -0.452

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 312 0.0% 21.4 78.85% -1.539 0.5363 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 384 42.8% 23.09 78.39% 0.155 0.3266 0.811
Skip Initial Invader Actions 437 15.53% 36.39 93.59% 0.574 -0.4847 0.642
Start of Game Growth 536 22.53% 37.2 92.35% 0.337 -0.0848 1.265
Unlimited Undo 1085 47.53% 31.67 80.28% 0.181 -0.2348 0.464
Using Tokens but Not Events 1551 36.9% 26.48 87.11% 0.412 0.5274 0.63

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 470 100.0% 32.82 100.0% 0.543 0.3638 0.253
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 317 100.0% 30.67 100.0% 0.042 0.0564 0.097
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 344 100.0% 29.21 100.0% 0.147 -0.0983 -0.387
Downpour Drenches the World 27 100.0% 23.15 100.0% -0.656 -0.2686 -0.828
Eyes Watch From the Trees 391 100.0% 31.64 100.0% 0.198 -0.2756 -0.269
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 347 100.0% 30.97 100.0% 1.025 0.5782 -0.288
Finder of Paths Unseen 15 100.0% 29.47 100.0% -0.151 0.2127 0.384
Fractured Days Split the Sky 242 100.0% 33.29 100.0% -0.716 -0.6125 -0.55
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 148 100.0% 30.86 100.0% 0.324 0.259 0.072
Heart of the Wildfire 229 100.0% 29.0 100.0% -0.5 -0.241 -0.276
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 490 100.0% 36.06 100.0% 0.401 -0.1826 -0.33
Lightning's Swift Strike 205 298.61% 29.0 158.05% 0.129 0.397 0.328
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 18 38.89% 31.56 77.78% -0.156 -0.9699 -0.358
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 323 42.95% 34.02 82.35% -0.469 -1.0109 0.892
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 386 37.73% 33.01 84.97% 0.271 -0.2067 0.647
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 491 100.0% 33.24 100.0% 0.548 0.4269 -0.35
Many Minds Move as One 244 100.0% 34.21 100.0% -0.186 -0.8094 0.556
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 485 100.0% 35.54 100.0% -0.095 -0.2227 0.502
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 299 100.0% 27.98 100.0% 0.474 0.3904 -0.34
River Surges in Sunlight 305 169.41% 37.62 135.41% -0.77 -0.962 0.41
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 434 44.11% 30.27 75.58% -0.8 -0.5122 -0.705
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 21 38.1% 33.33 90.48% 0.32 -0.0432 0.625
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 306 100.0% 38.19 100.0% -0.089 -0.2619 0.083
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 298 100.0% 40.12 100.0% 0.625 0.4251 -0.026
Shifting Memory of Ages 166 100.0% 30.82 100.0% 0.064 0.2929 -0.238
Shroud of Silent Mist 234 100.0% 26.3 100.0% -0.266 -0.0821 -0.08
Starlight Seeks its Form 112 100.0% 31.54 100.0% -0.127 -0.283 -0.512
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 298 100.0% 31.73 100.0% 0.095 -0.168 -0.015
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 349 100.0% 37.4 100.0% 0.514 0.5767 0.339
Thunderspeaker 315 100.0% 35.87 100.0% -0.17 -0.2466 0.054
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 244 100.0% 28.07 100.0% -0.889 -1.1511 0.421
Vital Strength of the Earth 213 194.59% 27.51 136.15% 0.45 1.2029 0.119
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 8 57.14% 30.5 87.5% 0.086 0.6637 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 364 41.85% 27.41 79.12% -0.553 0.5968 -0.042
Volcano Looming High 245 100.0% 29.24 100.0% 0.371 0.3668 -0.099

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.28%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.96%
Favors Called Due 88.1%
Mantle of Dread 87.98%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 909 22.63 12.98%
II 4076 31.12 54.59%
III 5230 34.7 87.5%
IV 2049 37.97 99.37%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4493
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2141
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2028
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1
Lose: Invader deck ran out 36
Lose: Adversary condition 796
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Scenario condition 171
Win: Scenario condition 130
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2224
Lose: Spirit destroyed 81

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.566 Win Model: -0.17

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.042 Win Model: 0.053
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6953 59.05% 28.86 70.79%
2 2867 56.02% 30.07 74.12%
3 1161 52.53% 31.52 72.52%
4 1092 33.75% 35.75 82.69%
5 37 27.78% 30.62 86.49%
6 154 27.15% 30.43 85.06%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)