Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 30.0% 20.73 60.0% 0.353 0.324 0.0
Blitz 0 199 54.36% 20.18 54.27% -0.041 0.2019 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 201 31.5% 40.32 59.2% -0.509 -0.4959 0.108
Despicable Theft 2 107 38.32% 26.64 60.75% 0.0 0.7661 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 121 52.07% 22.37 51.24% 0.0 0.753 -0.029
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1363 33.87% 43.1 66.69% 0.815 0.2184 0.38
Powers Long Forgotten 1 155 52.26% 17.76 36.77% 0.0 0.7478 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 85 51.76% 31.16 51.76% -0.39 0.0889 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 54 57.41% 31.57 57.41% 0.0 0.6877 0.897
Second Wave 0 594 50.52% 25.93 65.99% 0.412 0.4078 0.0
The Great River 3 84 52.38% 20.94 30.95% 0.0 1.1295 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 35 54.29% 17.89 37.14% 0.0 0.7799 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 113 56.44% 25.04 46.9% -0.008 0.8611 0.0

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 616 29.66 56.17% -0.169 -0.0202 -0.412
Aid From Lesser Spirits 531 31.29 61.21% 0.659 0.5465 -0.106
All Things Weaken 747 25.79 46.32% -0.364 0.0108 0.946
Attenuated Essence 123 25.05 43.9% -0.405 -0.2792 -0.54
Back Against the Wall 521 31.01 52.98% 0.356 0.3968 -0.092
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 108 25.38 40.74% -0.463 -0.2569 -0.396
Burn Brightest Before the End 75 23.04 38.67% -0.433 -0.3883 -0.048
Disintegrating Ecosystem 642 25.21 47.04% 1.158 1.6554 -0.58
Downward Spiral 836 25.35 59.21% -0.216 0.0339 0.927
Erosion of Will 611 26.55 48.77% -0.41 -0.1521 0.691
Intensifying Exploitation 118 23.38 44.92% -0.822 -0.6029 -0.387
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 278 28.39 82.37% -0.389 -0.7748 -0.233
Memory Fades to Dust 850 26.32 52.12% 0.486 0.6908 1.369
Power Corrodes the Spirit 721 25.64 53.26% 0.583 0.7811 -0.687
Promising Farmlands 568 25.18 46.3% -0.466 -0.1103 0.148
Shattered Fragments of Power 101 24.68 37.62% 0.42 0.6378 0.623
Slow Dissolution of Will 124 20.34 29.03% 0.237 0.6669 -0.411
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 192 30.85 85.42% 0.591 -0.0337 0.0
The Border of Life and Death 30 27.07 53.33% -0.163 -0.4833 -0.13
Thriving Communities 671 23.39 49.03% -0.109 0.2107 0.409
Thriving Crops 62 25.89 51.61% -0.278 -0.3963 -0.164
Unnatural Proliferation 769 26.35 49.28% -0.572 -0.4819 -0.551
Untended Land Crumbles 734 26.22 50.82% 0.192 0.4175 0.052

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4443 47.52% 26.13 65.92% -0.253 0.5465 -0.208
B 4456 49.28% 26.07 65.22% -0.21 0.5207 -0.094
C 4955 47.59% 27.06 67.02% 0.128 0.7324 -0.301
D 4160 46.8% 26.07 66.3% 0.654 1.4105 -0.835
E 4485 48.9% 27.01 66.82% 0.654 1.2383 0.55
F 3620 47.51% 26.35 65.69% -0.065 0.6377 -0.3
G 3249 48.45% 26.37 66.48% -0.234 0.5228 0.619
H 3240 48.17% 27.06 67.44% -0.187 0.4437 0.562
East 869 44.2% 31.8 59.49% 0.389 1.1725 0.245
Northeast 539 44.19% 31.29 58.07% -0.085 0.6768 0.0
Northwest 466 42.17% 31.86 59.87% 0.0 0.8422 -0.059
Southeast 372 30.16% 29.83 61.83% -0.906 -0.2669 -0.056
Southwest 342 35.31% 27.07 55.85% 0.137 1.1819 -0.137
West 819 44.88% 30.74 57.26% -0.007 0.7691 0.0

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 590 0.0% 15.67 58.81% 0.533 1.4062 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 742 40.91% 17.48 59.84% -0.739 -0.3616 -0.056
Skip Initial Invader Actions 583 16.91% 33.16 84.56% -0.249 -0.5403 0.679
Start of Game Growth 737 22.87% 32.65 82.09% -0.131 -0.6878 0.679
Unlimited Undo 1758 44.17% 26.41 68.15% -0.134 -0.0702 0.988
Using Tokens but Not Events 2723 36.96% 23.33 76.35% 0.194 0.0664 0.809

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 80.06%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.91%
Favors Called Due 88.69%
Mantle of Dread 88.21%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3126 12.44 5.25%
II 6333 29.94 50.81%
III 7589 34.9 86.65%
IV 2880 38.84 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 164
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6457
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3106
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2843
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2185
Lose: Invader deck ran out 49
Lose: Adversary condition 1200
Win: Sacrifice victory 77
Lose: Scenario condition 265
Win: Scenario condition 172
Lose: Unique spirit condition 0
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3291
Lose: Spirit destroyed 119

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.243 Win Model: 0.008
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 11452 55.98% 25.83 61.91%
2 4539 52.68% 26.31 65.68%
3 1935 47.64% 27.95 67.7%
4 1509 32.56% 31.23 75.22%
5 87 30.59% 26.37 71.26%
6 406 23.31% 21.06 59.36%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)