Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 107 59.05% 24.6 64.49% 0.284 0.5415 -0.502
Dahan Insurrection 4 113 35.71% 49.78 70.8% 0.024 0.4371 -0.328
Despicable Theft 2 53 39.62% 34.21 75.47% -0.376 0.07 0.506
Elemental Invocation 1 57 66.67% 29.93 70.18% 0.0 0.4858 -0.313
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 658 23.32% 43.45 74.77% -0.966 -0.6604 0.692
Powers Long Forgotten 1 53 79.25% 27.15 54.72% -0.065 0.1166 0.525
Rituals of Terror 3 50 60.0% 40.44 72.0% -0.19 -0.0686 0.146
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 29 72.41% 35.52 62.07% -0.021 0.3939 -0.48
Second Wave 0 402 51.92% 27.41 70.15% -0.556 0.0099 0.209
The Great River 3 50 68.0% 25.68 40.0% 0.0 1.3977 -0.143
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 34.0 100.0% 0.346 0.8724 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 69 71.93% 32.26 62.32% -0.634 0.528 -0.19

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5973 59.31% 28.4 71.27% 0.457 1.4729 -0.431
1 Thematic 268 62.16% 30.72 62.31% 0.445 1.6175 -0.193
2 Archipelago 17 35.29% 33.59 76.47% 0.0 0.9835 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1720 57.95% 30.54 73.6% -0.217 0.5342 0.208
2 Coastline 230 51.1% 29.32 77.39% -0.595 0.0072 0.576
2 Fragment 44 55.81% 31.68 68.18% 0.0 0.4476 0.645
2 Heart 15 46.67% 30.47 73.33% 0.0 0.5383 0.61
2 Opposite Shores 434 45.52% 27.29 80.88% -0.51 0.4827 -0.463
2 Thematic 142 64.54% 35.04 64.08% -0.172 0.5266 -0.076
2 Top to Top 49 63.83% 26.88 67.35% 0.093 0.6034 -0.058
3 Archipelago 11 63.64% 31.64 72.73% -0.132 0.0412 -0.413
3 Coastline 22 68.18% 35.5 54.55% 0.19 -0.5927 -0.486
3 Other 53 47.17% 31.55 84.91% 0.008 -0.0279 0.019
3 Round (Default) 968 52.05% 31.33 72.62% 0.131 0.7257 0.032
3 Sunrise 4 75.0% 17.0 75.0% 0.0 0.0368 0.0
3 Thematic 60 76.67% 31.23 46.67% 0.204 0.1662 0.431
4 Archipelago 15 73.33% 27.33 26.67% 0.0 -0.7111 -1.091
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 33.86 71.43% 0.0 0.1166 0.713
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 18.5 25.0% -0.179 0.3836 -0.57
4 Other 44 47.73% 28.73 70.45% 0.023 -0.2307 -0.692
4 Thematic 160 29.75% 47.81 81.88% -0.611 -0.0817 -0.907
4 Trapezoid (Default) 793 32.54% 34.21 84.36% 0.118 0.0904 0.475
5 Archipelago 2 50.0% 33.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.5788 0.0
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 45 31.82% 33.4 93.33% 0.642 0.8105 0.577
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.88 87.5% 0.0 -0.2767 0.0
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 28.67 66.67% 0.03 -0.2255 0.0
6 Other 19 10.53% 25.0 78.95% -0.42 0.3891 0.0
6 Star 5 50.0% 30.2 100.0% 0.036 0.8192 0.173
6 Thematic 38 21.62% 35.66 89.47% -0.041 -0.3193 0.528
6 Two Centers (Default) 56 29.09% 30.91 89.29% 0.347 0.2529 0.388
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0
7 Other 2 100.0% 16.0 0.0% 0.0 -1.1521 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 414 31.01 57.97% -1.058 0.8451 0.059
Aid From Lesser Spirits 374 31.91 63.37% -0.369 1.3606 -0.009
All Things Weaken 447 26.6 47.65% -1.632 0.3535 -0.368
Back Against the Wall 368 31.18 51.36% -0.846 0.9708 -0.105
Disintegrating Ecosystem 404 25.94 49.5% -1.687 0.3639 -0.595
Downward Spiral 522 26.56 60.92% -1.332 0.6611 -0.731
Erosion of Will 430 27.84 50.93% -1.473 0.6102 -0.246
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 170 31.3 90.59% -0.119 0.3224 -0.004
Memory Fades to Dust 522 27.74 54.98% -1.274 0.8099 -0.485
Power Corrodes the Spirit 438 27.14 55.48% -1.165 0.7731 -0.544
Promising Farmlands 377 26.72 48.28% -1.064 0.9824 -0.668
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 126 31.7 89.68% 0.563 0.9878 0.785
Thriving Communities 454 24.89 51.98% -1.318 0.6654 -1.013
Unnatural Proliferation 500 28.67 53.4% -0.985 0.9799 -0.411
Untended Land Crumbles 478 26.62 53.97% -1.378 0.615 -0.463

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2444 50.13% 29.91 75.04% -0.056 0.7417 -0.378
B 2516 53.29% 29.81 74.28% 0.048 0.7914 -0.368
C 2791 49.47% 31.34 77.32% 0.326 0.8949 0.116
D 2364 50.87% 29.76 74.66% -0.205 0.5905 -0.085
E 2456 53.08% 30.99 74.67% -0.193 0.4543 0.161
F 2050 50.35% 30.18 74.93% -0.208 0.5161 -0.105
G 1882 52.04% 29.95 74.65% 0.516 1.2476 0.064
H 1912 50.99% 30.96 75.89% -0.208 0.5048 0.051
East 487 49.17% 38.93 70.43% 0.268 1.0363 0.197
Northeast 289 51.4% 38.96 69.9% -0.338 0.5218 0.865
Northwest 263 50.97% 39.85 71.86% 0.098 1.1743 0.122
Southeast 185 33.88% 39.03 76.22% -0.117 0.589 -0.921
Southwest 165 40.12% 36.98 73.94% 0.173 1.2979 0.117
West 463 50.77% 38.18 69.33% -0.257 0.6968 -0.597

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 284 0.0% 21.56 78.87% -0.303 1.8267 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 357 41.67% 22.55 78.15% 0.06 0.2352 0.567
Skip Initial Invader Actions 414 15.36% 36.53 93.48% 0.541 0.3982 0.659
Start of Game Growth 505 22.43% 37.45 92.67% 0.344 -0.4169 1.191
Unlimited Undo 972 46.94% 31.7 79.94% -0.447 -1.0509 0.594
Using Tokens but Not Events 1379 36.55% 26.24 87.24% 0.845 0.6882 0.577

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 432 100.0% 32.82 100.0% 0.934 0.8196 0.211
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 290 100.0% 30.5 100.0% -0.623 -0.5271 0.009
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 318 100.0% 29.3 100.0% -0.409 -0.5699 -0.347
Downpour Drenches the World 8 100.0% 20.38 100.0% -0.018 0.2345 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 357 100.0% 31.64 100.0% -0.345 -0.7823 -0.427
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 324 100.0% 30.9 100.0% -0.04 -0.5274 -0.264
Finder of Paths Unseen 1 100.0% 22.0 100.0% 0.046 0.4097 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 233 100.0% 33.33 100.0% 0.188 0.2439 -0.463
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 124 100.0% 30.33 100.0% 0.172 0.1402 -0.105
Heart of the Wildfire 212 100.0% 29.22 100.0% -0.785 -0.6105 -0.221
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 460 100.0% 36.25 100.0% -0.261 -0.7171 -0.311
Lightning's Swift Strike 199 294.76% 28.86 154.77% -0.271 0.0038 0.296
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 4 25.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.403 -0.374 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 307 41.58% 34.63 83.06% 0.745 0.102 0.901
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 370 36.91% 32.8 84.59% 0.208 -0.0583 0.667
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 469 100.0% 33.37 100.0% -0.16 -0.4264 -0.288
Many Minds Move as One 231 100.0% 34.06 100.0% 0.067 -0.5356 0.407
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 457 100.0% 35.79 100.0% 0.428 0.2434 0.538
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 273 100.0% 28.38 100.0% 0.146 0.1668 -0.171
River Surges in Sunlight 285 168.65% 37.85 135.09% 0.346 0.3115 0.306
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 414 43.42% 30.68 76.09% -0.584 -0.1529 -0.632
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 7 42.86% 30.57 85.71% 0.278 -0.0224 0.392
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 291 100.0% 38.49 100.0% -1.007 -1.0594 0.025
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 273 100.0% 40.47 100.0% 0.011 -0.2762 -0.259
Shifting Memory of Ages 146 100.0% 30.49 100.0% -0.104 -0.0291 -0.454
Shroud of Silent Mist 214 100.0% 26.21 100.0% 0.715 0.9512 0.137
Starlight Seeks its Form 90 100.0% 32.63 100.0% 0.411 0.2714 -0.298
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 275 100.0% 31.52 100.0% -0.779 -0.9606 -0.078
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 332 100.0% 37.89 100.0% -0.046 0.1391 0.399
Thunderspeaker 296 100.0% 36.08 100.0% -0.225 -0.1611 0.052
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 234 100.0% 28.15 100.0% 0.044 -0.0465 0.437
Vital Strength of the Earth 196 194.58% 27.19 134.18% -0.222 0.5865 -0.184
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 336 41.64% 27.7 80.06% 0.516 1.6902 -0.11
Volcano Looming High 236 100.0% 29.08 100.0% 0.439 0.4347 -0.013

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.07%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.73%
Favors Called Due 88.0%
Mantle of Dread 88.17%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 807 22.56 12.76%
II 3718 30.98 54.49%
III 4809 34.53 87.32%
IV 1881 37.77 99.36%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 103
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4121
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1948
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1861
Lose: Invader deck ran out 33
Lose: Adversary condition 736
Win: Sacrifice victory 41
Lose: Scenario condition 136
Win: Scenario condition 123
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2036
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.754 Win Model: -0.332

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.034 Win Model: 0.243
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6263 59.37% 28.53 70.89%
2 2673 56.05% 30.11 74.11%
3 1089 52.7% 31.31 71.99%
4 1038 33.53% 36.11 82.76%
5 31 26.67% 30.23 90.32%
6 121 25.42% 30.71 86.78%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)