Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 60.0% 30.0 80.0% -0.064 -0.143 0.0
Blitz 0 125 60.66% 24.47 64.8% 0.448 0.5949 -0.626
Dahan Insurrection 4 132 34.35% 47.96 69.7% 0.362 0.1549 -0.131
Despicable Theft 2 69 43.48% 31.28 69.57% -0.095 0.5881 -0.134
Elemental Invocation 1 69 63.77% 29.16 68.12% -0.5 0.2313 -0.234
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 864 30.05% 44.45 70.95% 1.374 0.7672 1.005
Powers Long Forgotten 1 59 77.97% 26.22 55.93% -0.666 -0.1779 0.542
Rituals of Terror 3 55 58.18% 38.38 67.27% -0.272 -0.1664 -0.145
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 39 66.67% 33.62 61.54% -0.983 0.0084 -0.619
Second Wave 0 452 51.02% 27.79 70.13% 0.049 0.1119 0.23
The Great River 3 58 65.52% 24.57 37.93% -1.057 0.2911 -0.428
Varied Terrains 2 5 80.0% 26.8 60.0% -0.265 0.2978 -0.302
Ward the Shores 2 69 71.93% 32.26 62.32% 0.0 1.2095 -0.247

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6957 58.41% 28.58 70.55% 0.523 0.7326 -0.506
1 Thematic 291 61.35% 30.24 61.17% -0.214 0.3843 -0.291
2 Archipelago 22 40.91% 28.27 63.64% -0.451 -0.0939 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1963 57.5% 30.05 72.44% 0.452 0.6119 0.298
2 Coastline 245 50.41% 29.15 77.14% 0.144 0.2048 0.599
2 Fragment 47 54.35% 31.4 68.09% -0.253 -0.3162 0.776
2 Heart 18 55.56% 28.44 72.22% 0.086 -0.1524 0.55
2 Opposite Shores 468 45.39% 27.33 80.34% -0.007 0.1264 -0.397
2 Thematic 164 62.58% 34.16 62.8% 0.033 0.6688 -0.18
2 Top to Top 56 62.96% 26.11 66.07% -0.429 -0.3886 -0.09
3 Archipelago 13 53.85% 29.0 61.54% -0.264 -1.3511 -0.966
3 Coastline 28 67.86% 31.68 50.0% -0.595 -1.0927 -0.367
3 Other 55 47.27% 31.78 85.45% 0.495 0.6044 0.031
3 Round (Default) 1102 50.83% 30.59 70.78% -0.576 -0.6177 0.103
3 Sunrise 4 75.0% 17.0 75.0% 0.0 0.1962 0.0
3 Thematic 69 75.36% 30.23 46.38% -0.102 -0.0662 0.615
4 Archipelago 18 61.11% 28.44 33.33% 0.088 -0.1265 -1.078
4 Coastline 7 57.14% 33.86 71.43% 0.0 0.1222 0.788
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 18.5 25.0% 0.0 -0.3753 -0.555
4 Other 49 46.94% 28.61 73.47% 0.451 -0.3981 -0.602
4 Thematic 168 30.12% 46.84 80.95% 0.36 0.3431 -0.694
4 Trapezoid (Default) 853 32.68% 33.68 84.06% 0.995 0.8081 0.752
5 Archipelago 5 60.0% 31.0 60.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0429 0.0
5 Other 52 31.37% 32.56 90.38% 0.864 0.3557 0.475
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 40.88 87.5% 0.0 -0.33 0.0
6 Archipelago 4 25.0% 21.5 50.0% -0.57 -0.8749 0.0
6 Other 28 17.86% 27.04 82.14% 0.311 -0.0837 -0.057
6 Star 8 28.57% 27.25 100.0% 0.0 0.4753 0.183
6 Thematic 54 18.87% 32.74 81.48% -0.486 -0.0875 0.276
6 Two Centers (Default) 82 30.86% 27.88 78.05% -0.552 -0.5086 0.448
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5893 0.0
7 Other 4 100.0% 20.25 0.0% 0.0 -0.7729 -0.115

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 465 31.32 57.85% 0.448 0.7195 0.208
Aid From Lesser Spirits 405 31.66 62.96% 0.151 0.1892 0.104
All Things Weaken 519 26.78 47.4% -0.949 -0.4883 -0.183
Attenuated Essence 11 30.91 54.55% 0.205 0.4102 0.497
Back Against the Wall 402 31.5 52.49% 1.009 1.1705 0.124
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8 29.13 50.0% 0.067 0.481 0.149
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 15.6 20.0% -0.553 -0.2486 -0.382
Disintegrating Ecosystem 456 25.94 48.68% 0.085 0.6112 -0.44
Downward Spiral 598 26.89 61.71% 0.536 0.8887 -0.561
Erosion of Will 467 27.83 51.82% -0.034 0.3747 -0.146
Intensifying Exploitation 4 13.25 0.0% -1.557 -1.1705 -0.369
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 189 31.45 88.89% 0.796 0.271 -0.131
Memory Fades to Dust 601 27.86 54.24% -0.556 -0.0744 -0.346
Power Corrodes the Spirit 512 27.72 56.05% -0.714 -0.4089 -0.261
Promising Farmlands 414 26.78 48.55% 0.373 0.9586 -0.614
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 24.7 40.0% -0.368 -0.1891 0.142
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 10.75 25.0% -0.772 -0.2387 -0.218
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 145 32.06 87.59% 0.229 -0.4491 0.887
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.323 -0.4523 0.0
Thriving Communities 507 25.03 51.68% -0.128 0.3648 -0.859
Thriving Crops 12 30.25 58.33% 0.378 0.466 0.171
Unnatural Proliferation 558 28.32 53.23% -0.56 -0.2634 -0.351
Untended Land Crumbles 530 27.12 53.77% -0.428 -0.0703 -0.264

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2816 49.93% 29.72 73.86% 0.207 1.047 -0.088
B 2849 53.21% 29.47 72.87% 0.125 0.9042 -0.355
C 3182 49.69% 30.84 75.49% 0.097 0.7505 0.144
D 2699 50.59% 29.54 73.69% 0.082 0.8808 -0.153
E 2846 51.61% 30.61 74.14% 0.45 1.0793 0.135
F 2341 49.78% 29.66 73.56% 0.105 0.8243 -0.157
G 2135 50.86% 29.44 73.58% -0.246 0.4963 -0.026
H 2163 49.98% 30.36 74.53% -0.212 0.4358 0.032
East 550 48.44% 37.44 68.73% -0.505 0.0995 0.262
Northeast 326 49.85% 37.45 68.4% 0.002 0.8833 0.953
Northwest 289 49.12% 38.8 70.93% 0.363 1.0356 0.233
Southeast 225 34.08% 36.47 72.44% 0.474 1.1099 -1.047
Southwest 200 39.59% 34.79 70.0% -0.566 0.5982 -0.267
West 519 49.71% 36.99 67.63% -0.178 0.7861 -0.407

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 324 0.0% 20.8 76.54% -1.43 -0.5466 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 403 43.28% 22.57 76.43% -0.101 0.2311 0.639
Skip Initial Invader Actions 450 16.3% 35.8 92.0% 0.119 -0.4164 0.219
Start of Game Growth 553 22.98% 36.67 91.14% 0.97 0.6396 0.945
Unlimited Undo 1153 47.28% 30.72 78.14% -0.217 -0.2391 0.337
Using Tokens but Not Events 1703 36.72% 26.31 85.79% 1.224 1.1702 0.517

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 495 100.0% 32.34 100.0% 0.953 0.7942 0.323
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 328 100.0% 29.84 100.0% -0.436 -0.3146 0.141
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 372 100.0% 28.64 100.0% -0.091 -0.2592 -0.513
Downpour Drenches the World 36 100.0% 23.75 100.0% 1.457 1.6361 -0.703
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 15 100.0% 25.8 100.0% -0.212 -0.9335 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 416 100.0% 30.72 100.0% -0.269 -0.8578 -0.186
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 359 100.0% 30.58 100.0% 0.149 -0.3224 -0.172
Finder of Paths Unseen 23 100.0% 22.22 100.0% -0.899 -0.2051 0.334
Fractured Days Split the Sky 256 100.0% 31.73 100.0% -1.177 -0.4926 -0.939
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 157 100.0% 30.43 100.0% 0.105 0.0042 0.084
Heart of the Wildfire 240 100.0% 28.36 100.0% -0.397 -0.153 -0.274
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 513 100.0% 35.35 100.0% -0.294 -0.7443 -0.342
Lightning's Swift Strike 220 289.66% 28.23 157.73% 0.576 0.779 0.471
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 21 33.33% 28.05 71.43% 0.256 -0.4405 -0.346
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 329 43.08% 33.86 82.07% 0.313 0.0736 0.951
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 395 37.73% 32.68 84.3% 0.646 0.4864 0.648
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 506 100.0% 32.8 100.0% 0.111 -0.0336 -0.376
Many Minds Move as One 251 100.0% 33.35 100.0% -1.693 -1.9141 0.512
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 507 100.0% 34.63 100.0% -0.083 -0.0923 0.521
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 319 100.0% 28.06 100.0% 0.351 0.2088 -0.264
River Surges in Sunlight 312 174.06% 37.2 141.03% 0.363 0.3656 0.459
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 457 42.89% 29.3 73.09% -0.228 0.0416 -1.131
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 25 36.0% 30.72 80.0% -0.808 -0.9375 0.674
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 322 100.0% 37.6 100.0% 0.937 0.7237 0.194
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 299 102.68% 39.99 100.33% 0.826 0.6971 -0.039
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 9 11.11% 31.0 88.89% 1.063 0.6998 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 174 100.0% 30.16 100.0% -0.692 -0.2847 -0.066
Shroud of Silent Mist 244 100.0% 25.54 100.0% -0.64 -0.325 -0.041
Starlight Seeks its Form 123 100.0% 29.53 100.0% -0.4 -0.6728 -0.577
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 310 100.0% 31.3 100.0% 0.33 -0.1655 0.128
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 366 100.0% 36.64 100.0% 0.222 0.2525 0.357
Thunderspeaker 324 101.85% 35.23 100.62% 0.305 0.2861 0.131
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 8 25.0% 27.0 75.0% 0.67 0.6068 -0.422
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 252 100.0% 27.56 100.0% -0.498 -0.4363 0.4
Vital Strength of the Earth 226 194.89% 26.96 140.71% 0.276 0.8285 -0.008
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 17 50.0% 29.65 64.71% -0.559 -0.3032 0.325
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 379 42.05% 27.05 77.31% -0.019 0.8774 0.042
Volcano Looming High 257 100.0% 28.88 100.0% -0.465 -0.4553 -0.263

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.61%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.1%
Favors Called Due 88.22%
Mantle of Dread 88.06%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1083 21.03 11.54%
II 4272 31.04 54.54%
III 5397 34.74 87.42%
IV 2102 38.02 99.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4631
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2243
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2080
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 174
Lose: Invader deck ran out 39
Lose: Adversary condition 822
Win: Sacrifice victory 47
Lose: Scenario condition 180
Win: Scenario condition 135
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2293
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.277 Win Model: -0.156

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.2 Win Model: 0.04
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 7288 58.47% 28.66 70.14%
2 2992 55.68% 29.69 73.03%
3 1244 51.63% 30.58 70.18%
4 1114 33.64% 35.47 82.41%
5 40 25.64% 30.65 87.5%
6 176 26.59% 28.33 78.41%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)