Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 3 0.0% 22.0 3.717 33.33% 0.119 0.0247
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 4 25.0% 17.0 -1.052 25.0% -0.324 -0.893
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 0.0% 0.0 -8.994 0.0% -0.716 -0.8052
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 100.0% 50.0 18.903 100.0% 0.484 0.2675
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.995 0.0% -0.225 1.5228
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 312 37.42% 22.28 -3.512 50.0% -0.479 -0.0861
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 232 51.29% 26.5 1.548 50.0% 0.017 0.4416
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 143 60.14% 32.3 -4.218 48.25% -0.64 -0.0984
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 140 58.57% 26.67 -1.357 33.57% -0.466 0.3134
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 62 70.97% 28.16 -7.345 27.42% -0.251 1.2964
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 37 67.57% 26.24 -6.792 18.92% -0.261 1.1959
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 108 51.85% 42.77 -6.719 48.15% -0.139 1.8207
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 593 47.97% 24.4 -3.671 64.08% -0.517 -0.3305
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 646 48.76% 26.46 -3.581 61.3% -0.634 -0.6068
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 486 52.37% 34.33 -3.039 63.79% -0.875 -0.7289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 323 57.89% 37.78 -1.476 58.2% -0.626 -0.3631
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 166 65.66% 39.47 8.308 54.22% 0.415 0.6872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 111 68.47% 44.35 0.999 49.55% -0.266 0.038
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 147 82.76% 34.35 3.79 22.45% -0.034 1.1946
The Kingdom of England 0 1 582 42.44% 24.72 -0.508 62.89% 0.377 0.7667
The Kingdom of England 1 3 431 54.19% 29.8 0.578 56.61% -0.169 0.4193
The Kingdom of England 2 4 390 62.72% 25.12 -1.199 40.77% -0.736 -0.1233
The Kingdom of England 3 6 222 66.22% 27.93 0.32 30.63% -0.699 0.4291
The Kingdom of England 4 7 157 70.06% 30.16 -11.301 28.03% -0.261 0.7391
The Kingdom of England 5 9 89 74.16% 28.96 6.937 17.98% 0.317 1.8236
The Kingdom of England 6 11 194 81.77% 29.11 9.238 10.31% 0.079 1.9326
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1941 15.68% 49.4 2.538 87.12% -0.273 0.2548
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 531 57.82% 25.96 -1.272 46.52% -0.281 0.5765
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 434 50.0% 32.34 -0.498 39.4% -0.964 0.2654
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 228 60.09% 35.81 1.46 36.84% -0.574 0.6754
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 144 57.64% 35.31 10.656 28.47% 0.497 1.8361
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 124 52.42% 41.52 -6.822 32.26% -0.342 0.6992
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 249 52.61% 39.26 -3.596 24.9% -1.229 0.241
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 128 21.88% 9.97 -4.101 22.66% -0.29 0.0586
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 99 32.32% 17.96 1.855 25.25% -0.267 -0.001
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 90 32.22% 14.91 0.345 25.56% 0.161 0.4793
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 54 40.74% 25.44 -6.453 33.33% -0.932 -0.6464
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 58.33% 20.42 0.0 12.5%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 22 54.55% 23.59 -7.346 31.82% -0.486 0.0283
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 23 39.13% 19.87 -8.824 21.74% -0.652 0.4946
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 522 43.87% 24.5 -1.725 64.37% -0.046 0.2055
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 512 49.22% 26.05 -0.962 59.18% -0.151 0.0403
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 457 56.02% 26.37 -1.669 50.98% -0.274 -0.0562
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 292 71.58% 34.12 0.821 52.74% -0.418 0.0332
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 200 69.0% 30.59 -3.864 40.5% -0.952 -0.2077
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 77 79.22% 32.04 4.031 37.66% 0.004 1.073
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 204 67.82% 30.82 -8.481 28.43% -0.398 0.6339
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 260 37.69% 19.93 -1.871 51.54% 0.138 0.3843
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 209 48.33% 22.36 -4.265 41.63% -0.845 -0.0934
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 179 48.04% 27.72 -1.403 48.6% -0.83 -0.3448
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 107 46.73% 27.06 2.749 33.64% -0.14 0.6893
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 38 55.26% 23.32 0.0 21.05%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 32 78.13% 20.63 0.0 3.13%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16 50.0% 17.31 0.0 6.25%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8388 47.92 26.69 59.74% -0.03 0.343 0.328
1 Thematic 2317 54.36 29.98 50.06% -0.578 0.1364 -0.016
2 Archipelago 13 84.62 25.46 30.77% -0.251
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1808 49.55 26.99 59.57% 0.009 0.1706 0.014
2 Coastline 241 47.9 27.02 65.56% 0.774 0.5807 -0.538
2 Fragment 60 67.8 27.17 56.67% 0.14
2 Heart 28 71.43 29.57 78.57% 0.273
2 Opposite Shores 293 50.52 26.33 69.62% -0.282 -0.15 0.103
2 Thematic 610 47.37 28.86 50.33% 0.132 0.8521 -0.237
2 Top to Top 62 51.61 29.6 66.13% 0.25
3 Archipelago 7 57.14 27.14 57.14% 0.352 -0.1914 -0.068
3 Coastline 7 71.43 25.29 42.86%
3 Other 23 52.17 31.22 73.91%
3 Round (Default) 851 56.62 27.04 55.7% -0.418 -0.4411 0.567
3 Sunrise 5 100.0 29.2 80.0% 0.089 -0.3574
3 Thematic 135 51.85 28.45 45.19% 0.084 0.0918 -0.445
4 Archipelago 5 60.0 18.2 20.0% -0.21
4 Coastline 5 80.0 16.0 40.0% -0.164
4 Leaf 2 100.0 14.5 0.0%
4 Other 8 62.5 41.75 75.0% 0.28 -0.2883 -0.065
4 Snake 1 0.0 41.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1413 4.46 57.61 95.68% 0.812 0.8747 -0.109
4 Trapezoid (Default) 395 50.9 26.87 54.18% -0.18 -0.1752 -0.137
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.023
5 Other 23 21.74 20.43 34.78% -0.196 -0.5203 -0.164
5 Thematic 10 40.0 24.5 30.0% 0.01 -0.1331 0.234
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.025
6 Other 7 42.86 16.43 57.14% 0.198 0.153
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 22 27.27 20.14 50.0% -0.558 -0.3546 -0.149
6 Two Centers (Default) 31 16.13 11.87 29.03% -0.51 -0.036 -0.158
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 641 26.33 44.46% 0.238 0.3089 0.107
Aid From Lesser Spirits 576 27.22 47.57% 0.92 0.8104 -0.223
All Things Weaken 339 26.23 45.43% 0.015 0.1918 -1.305
Attenuated Essence 52 23.02 48.08% 0.596 0.6481 -0.424
Back Against the Wall 538 28.02 45.54% -0.172 -0.188 -0.143
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 47 19.87 44.68% 0.348 0.5319 0.03
Burn Brightest Before the End 33 27.36 45.45% 0.441 0.5278 0.899
Disintegrating Ecosystem 617 24.26 45.06% 0.081 0.3729 0.087
Downward Spiral 848 26.74 50.94% 0.839 0.945 0.501
Erosion of Will 639 26.28 44.13% 0.461 0.627 -0.179
Intensifying Exploitation 49 20.84 34.69% 1.201 1.389 -0.643
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 116 37.03 86.21% 0.31 -0.1183 0.624
Memory Fades to Dust 886 25.88 47.18% -0.249 -0.0145 -0.266
Power Corrodes the Spirit 302 24.61 43.05% 0.859 0.9551 -0.694
Promising Farmlands 619 23.58 42.81% 0.288 0.6518 -0.691
Shattered Fragments of Power 28 22.71 46.43% 1.262 1.328 -0.306
Slow Dissolution of Will 51 21.06 45.1% -0.033 0.4302 1.08
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 80 33.34 83.75% 0.378 -0.2232 0.662
The Border of Life and Death 5 16.6 40.0% -0.523 -0.9982
Thriving Communities 327 24.51 44.65% 0.695 0.9209 0.218
Thriving Crops 11 30.0 72.73% 0.735 0.5102
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.745
Unnatural Proliferation 356 26.44 44.94% 1.229 1.3507 -0.15
Untended Land Crumbles 341 24.8 42.52% -0.615 -0.3827 0.001

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2880 49.18% 27.24 60.97% -0.09 0.8282 -0.19
B 2603 51.22% 26.6 58.97% 0.322 1.1635 -0.641
C 2810 48.71% 26.37 60.28% -0.353 0.3297 -0.537
D 2574 48.94% 27.21 60.88% -0.188 0.6546 -0.232
E 1461 47.52% 25.19 54.35% -0.311 0.3411 -0.095
F 1996 49.45% 25.74 55.66% -0.093 0.667 -0.506
G 1910 52.35% 26.89 54.87% -0.295 0.4627 -0.176
H 1910 50.56% 27.09 58.8% -0.411 0.307 -0.392
East 3336 31.48% 42.11 69.9% 0.309 1.1223 -0.03
Northeast 2376 23.47% 46.95 77.57% 0.131 0.7987 -0.213
Northwest 2063 20.62% 48.16 79.64% -0.604 0.2007 -0.52
Southeast 462 45.45% 27.53 50.43% 0.659 1.3646 -0.235
Southwest 406 43.35% 22.52 46.06% -0.521 0.8691 -0.127
West 3019 30.33% 41.72 70.02% -0.091 0.7025 -0.617

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 94 0.0% 26.21 75.53% -0.051
Not Using Events or Tokens 331 43.52% 26.75 68.88% 0.236 0.7213 0.165
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1721 4.36% 56.34 95.18% 0.921 0.1897 0.389
Start of Game Growth 1881 6.95% 54.17 92.88% 0.008 -0.4381 -0.401
Unlimited Undo 1198 36.75% 27.29 58.6% -0.966 -0.9989 0.051
Using Tokens but Not Events 1483 38.75% 27.44 68.44% 0.269 0.1064 -1.98

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5270 14.25 22.43%
II 5433 30.3 65.19%
III 4108 34.84 85.22%
IV 1970 38.61 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.872 Win Model: 0.338
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 10921 49.12% 27.11 56.8%
2 2945 50.53% 28.32 62.11%
3 1002 56.37% 27.67 55.59%
4 1833 15.26% 50.64 86.2%
5 21 14.29% 8.48 9.52%
6 59 23.73% 15.69 40.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1181
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3476
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3532
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1956
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2251
Lose: Invader deck ran out 97
Lose: Adversary condition 1055
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3040
Lose: Spirit destroyed 143

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)