Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 220 46.33% 27.17 -4.777 61.36% -0.904 -0.5572
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 163 59.51% 29.04 0.063 53.37% 0.046 0.3228
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 120 65.83% 35.29 -0.94 52.5% -0.591 0.2204
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 108 67.59% 30.56 -3.23 37.96% -0.479 0.52
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 46 76.09% 30.83 -0.837 28.26% -0.993 0.3887
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 27 81.48% 31.52 3.854 22.22% -0.74 0.5569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 101 52.48% 45.5 -13.226 51.49% -0.701 1.2302
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 506 50.89% 26.33 -2.539 69.17% -0.547 -0.3312
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 497 53.92% 28.71 -2.066 66.4% -0.308 -0.3783
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 406 54.81% 37.21 -0.585 68.97% -0.241 -0.3238
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 256 64.84% 41.59 9.399 64.45% 1.063 1.2782
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 140 67.86% 42.51 -6.666 59.29% -0.724 -0.499
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 98 71.43% 45.19 2.757 50.0% -0.26 0.4122
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 126 87.9% 36.33 -4.869 23.02% -0.674 0.6828
The Kingdom of England 0 1 469 46.06% 27.15 -1.503 69.3% -0.198 0.0115
The Kingdom of England 1 3 357 58.43% 32.04 5.575 60.78% 0.773 1.0606
The Kingdom of England 2 4 313 68.27% 28.33 -2.4 46.33% -0.999 -0.2663
The Kingdom of England 3 6 180 71.67% 30.63 -2.09 33.33% -0.663 0.5557
The Kingdom of England 4 7 139 71.94% 32.05 1.024 28.78% -1.094 0.1861
The Kingdom of England 5 9 71 84.51% 33.45 1.293 19.72% -1.237 0.2539
The Kingdom of England 6 11 174 86.21% 31.3 -0.336 10.92% -0.313 1.6817
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1641 16.66% 50.63 3.915 89.46% 0.571 0.9845
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 451 59.65% 27.8 -1.971 49.67% -0.74 0.0666
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 382 51.83% 33.59 1.869 41.62% -0.791 0.3123
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 210 61.43% 36.49 2.453 37.14% -0.308 1.09
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 127 60.63% 37.28 4.599 29.13% -0.5 1.0139
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 108 53.7% 41.95 -9.158 31.48% -0.4 0.3843
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 221 52.49% 42.43 2.154 27.6% -1.072 0.4044
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 62 32.26% 10.53 -3.435 20.97% -0.536 -0.3247
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 50 36.0% 18.66 -2.278 28.0% -0.928 -0.5429
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 39 28.21% 10.79 -3.445 17.95% -0.958 -0.5793
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 20 45.0% 35.85 2.853 55.0% -0.417 -0.1443
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 16 62.5% 26.56 -5.447 18.75% -0.392 0.4693
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 10 60.0% 23.3 0.0 30.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 7 71.43% 51.0 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 427 47.31% 26.16 -1.596 69.56% -0.017 0.1783
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 401 55.36% 29.73 -1.976 68.33% -0.554 -0.4581
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 363 61.71% 28.69 -1.568 55.37% -0.671 -0.5626
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 266 72.93% 36.06 5.211 56.77% 0.118 0.5854
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 165 73.94% 35.44 2.57 47.88% -0.159 0.4606
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 67 82.09% 33.85 -4.862 38.81% -0.8 0.1863
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 164 74.07% 35.37 1.796 32.32% -0.857 0.1409
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 171 46.2% 24.9 -1.997 64.33% -0.28 -0.1884
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 146 56.16% 27.42 -0.866 52.05% -0.02 0.6404
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 134 57.46% 32.42 -0.071 57.46% -0.106 0.2883
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 80 53.75% 32.35 -0.244 40.0% -0.343 0.6886
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 34 61.76% 26.06 -6.237 23.53% -0.809 0.1496
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 28 82.14% 21.79 -1.09 3.57% -1.407 0.3103
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 72.73% 25.18 -7.581 9.09% -0.398 1.5842

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6982 51.04 28.75 64.15% -0.256 -0.0551 0.141
1 Thematic 1964 58.38 32.56 54.07% -0.442 0.2775 -0.201
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 13.67 33.33%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1465 54.13 29.76 65.53% -0.268 -0.2599 -0.028
2 Coastline 181 52.25 29.02 70.72% 0.747 0.5414 -0.037
2 Fragment 52 68.63 25.96 55.77% 1.218 0.9405 0.141
2 Heart 26 69.23 28.38 76.92% 0.175
2 Opposite Shores 241 52.32 27.73 71.78% 0.117 0.1744 -0.2
2 Thematic 489 52.66 32.21 55.83% -0.676 -0.2239 -0.349
2 Top to Top 50 52.0 30.14 66.0% 0.523 0.4255 0.253
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 17 58.82 33.82 76.47% 0.378 0.349
3 Round (Default) 678 61.28 30.11 61.36% -0.347 -0.5726 0.536
3 Sunrise 3 100.0 25.33 100.0% 0.485 -0.4996
3 Thematic 105 60.0 31.16 47.62% 0.04 0.2364 -0.658
4 Archipelago 4 75.0 22.75 25.0% -0.621 -1.8063 -0.15
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Leaf 1 100.0 12.0 0.0% -0.171 -0.8697
4 Other 7 57.14 42.14 71.43% -0.218 -1.5755 -0.057
4 Thematic 1214 4.78 57.83 95.88% 0.271 0.0729 -0.009
4 Trapezoid (Default) 318 52.53 29.88 60.38% 0.22 -0.0235 -0.25
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.034
5 Other 15 26.67 30.07 53.33% -0.008 -1.065 -0.232
5 Thematic 7 57.14 35.0 42.86% 0.231
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.078
6 Other 3 0.0 20.33 66.67% 0.339 -0.3977
6 Thematic 14 28.57 24.43 57.14% -0.116 0.6386
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 23.08 16.77 38.46% -0.965 -1.5451

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 594 26.63 44.95% 0.059 0.219 -0.226
Aid From Lesser Spirits 534 27.36 47.94% 1.139 1.0523 -0.48
All Things Weaken 297 26.64 45.45% 0.292 0.6343 -1.393
Attenuated Essence 22 19.82 40.91% -0.012 0.0624
Back Against the Wall 491 28.29 45.62% 1.233 1.3084 -0.468
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 21.71 47.62% 0.046 0.2371 0.251
Burn Brightest Before the End 8 29.88 50.0% 0.67 0.7939 0.273
Disintegrating Ecosystem 544 24.65 45.4% 0.102 0.4748 -0.433
Downward Spiral 763 27.09 51.25% -0.588 -0.4511 -0.012
Erosion of Will 570 26.81 44.39% -0.858 -0.5629 -0.463
Intensifying Exploitation 19 21.53 36.84% 0.354 0.5922 -0.471
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 99 38.08 89.9% 1.165 0.6334 0.731
Memory Fades to Dust 806 26.6 48.64% -0.05 0.2304 -0.55
Power Corrodes the Spirit 261 24.39 43.3% -0.09 0.063 -0.917
Promising Farmlands 565 23.94 43.01% -0.193 0.153 -0.929
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 25.5 44.44% -0.463 -0.2683 -0.394
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 23.85 50.0% -0.559 -0.1081 0.472
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 69 33.52 85.51% -0.203 -0.9436 0.353
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 277 24.54 42.96% 0.682 0.9807 -0.078
Thriving Crops 3 21.67 66.67%
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.509
Unnatural Proliferation 316 26.42 44.3% 0.205 0.3506 -0.383
Untended Land Crumbles 301 25.55 44.85% 0.182 0.4811 -0.206

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2309 53.15% 29.55 65.7% 0.153 1.1467 -0.092
B 2104 54.33% 28.97 63.93% -0.493 0.4253 -0.512
C 2279 51.39% 29.04 66.43% -0.261 0.482 -0.344
D 2129 52.35% 29.37 65.43% -0.227 0.7251 -0.103
E 1093 52.35% 28.54 61.3% -0.128 0.6525 0.344
F 1607 53.74% 28.53 61.23% -0.337 0.5552 -0.304
G 1560 56.52% 29.35 59.42% -0.089 0.7667 -0.031
H 1599 53.13% 29.37 63.85% 0.144 0.9917 -0.474
East 2818 33.68% 43.89 72.43% 0.555 1.3243 -0.067
Northeast 2035 25.18% 48.11 79.16% 0.007 0.7949 -0.207
Northwest 1772 22.54% 49.0 80.7% -0.877 0.107 -0.379
Southeast 348 50.86% 30.87 55.46% -0.219 0.6557 -0.619
Southwest 278 51.8% 27.49 56.12% -0.353 0.8542 0.36
West 2532 32.81% 43.81 73.3% -0.397 0.5374 -0.592

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 89 0.0% 27.36 78.65% 0.409 1.0386 -0.016
Not Using Events or Tokens 280 46.52% 29.23 74.64% 1.15 1.6561 0.294
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1476 4.47% 57.35 96.75% 1.304 0.6692 0.347
Start of Game Growth 1617 7.4% 55.25 94.62% 0.6 0.211 -0.426
Unlimited Undo 951 41.39% 31.04 66.67% -0.18 -0.1352 0.415
Using Tokens but Not Events 1237 41.47% 29.96 74.37% 0.48 0.4527 -1.869

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3641 17.67 28.04%
II 4820 30.7 65.52%
III 3657 34.75 84.96%
IV 1749 38.22 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.489 Win Model: 0.146
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9055 52.74% 29.46 61.45%
2 2423 53.72% 30.35 66.2%
3 797 61.16% 30.38 60.35%
4 1554 15.41% 51.79 88.1%
5 9 22.22% 17.67 22.22%
6 29 24.14% 21.41 51.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1020
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3085
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3149
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1738
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 896
Lose: Invader deck ran out 84
Lose: Adversary condition 949
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2766
Lose: Spirit destroyed 137

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)