Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 169 53.29% 31.86 -5.838 71.6% -0.695 -0.2267
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 129 70.54% 32.1 1.549 58.91% -0.216 0.0152
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 105 70.48% 38.45 0.531 58.1% -0.443 0.7397
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 88 73.86% 34.8 0.0 43.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 87.5% 36.06 0.0 31.25%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 87.5% 36.38 -1.706 25.0% -0.76 1.3934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 97 52.58% 45.94 0.0 51.55%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 421 53.81% 28.4 -3.252 75.06% -0.047 -0.1456
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 414 57.0% 31.87 -0.606 73.91% -0.139 -0.4107
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 352 57.26% 40.79 3.067 76.14% -0.488 -0.3279
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 193 68.91% 44.49 2.64 67.36% -0.424 -0.0661
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 128 71.09% 45.84 13.309 64.06% 0.349 0.687
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 88 75.0% 48.24 19.48 53.41% 0.801 1.7774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 121 90.0% 37.63 -3.733 23.97% -0.482 1.0103
The Kingdom of England 0 1 409 49.63% 29.12 0.222 74.57% -0.138 0.3193
The Kingdom of England 1 3 304 61.72% 33.12 0.775 62.83% -0.894 -0.3067
The Kingdom of England 2 4 272 74.91% 30.61 -0.426 50.0% -0.445 0.7046
The Kingdom of England 3 6 154 75.97% 33.08 -0.139 36.36% -0.797 0.8127
The Kingdom of England 4 7 114 77.19% 35.5 13.945 32.46% 0.148 1.5781
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 86.21% 37.38 0.0 24.14%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 165 87.88% 32.21 0.0 11.52%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1489 16.41% 51.54 1.668 90.93% -0.387 0.3305
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 366 65.85% 31.1 0.484 55.19% -0.008 1.1513
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 340 53.53% 34.97 3.178 43.24% -0.445 1.5616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 194 62.89% 37.8 8.534 38.14% -0.174 2.0025
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 110 60.91% 37.89 0.0 29.09%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 96 52.08% 43.13 -2.13 31.25% -0.92 0.875
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 193 52.85% 44.78 10.495 29.53% -0.343 1.8547
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 13 53.85% 27.0 -0.628 53.85% 0.015 -0.2307
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 7 42.86% 38.86 4.961 71.43% 0.241 1.1949
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 32.25 -1.042 50.0% -0.234 0.9017
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 42.86% 52.71 12.489 85.71% 0.395 1.2163
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 39.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 100.0% 58.25 16.158 75.0% 0.34 1.6441
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 100.0% 44.67 7.271 33.33% -0.327 1.3136
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 361 50.97% 28.75 0.841 77.01% 0.753 0.8098
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 346 56.65% 31.17 2.761 71.39% 0.739 0.8435
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 299 65.55% 31.07 1.203 60.87% 0.307 0.5861
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 237 75.95% 38.3 4.368 60.34% 0.17 0.5913
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 149 75.84% 37.03 0.0 49.66%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 53 84.91% 37.98 -3.009 47.17% -0.812 0.3817
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 136 79.1% 38.1 13.05 34.56% 0.151 1.2998
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 124 54.03% 28.84 -3.259 75.81% -0.548 -0.9626
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 109 61.47% 30.83 0.223 56.88% -0.265 0.3812
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 105 65.71% 38.05 0.317 66.67% -0.512 -0.0153
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 62 64.52% 37.69 7.854 46.77% -0.028 1.3844
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 23 78.26% 33.96 0.0 30.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 100.0% 28.38 0.0 6.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 35.0 0.0 14.29%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5883 54.16 30.83 68.77% 0.308 0.9364 0.294
1 Thematic 1724 61.46 34.9 57.31% -0.588 0.48 -0.287
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 20.5 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1229 58.0 32.0 69.98% -0.22 0.268 0.136
2 Coastline 154 53.64 30.27 73.38% 0.325 0.4495 -0.392
2 Fragment 42 73.81 26.71 57.14% -0.027 0.195 0.156
2 Heart 21 71.43 26.48 71.43% -0.268 0.2125 -0.1
2 Opposite Shores 190 51.61 30.17 76.32% -0.016 0.4706 -0.202
2 Thematic 380 57.52 36.5 63.16% 0.773 1.6593 -0.574
2 Top to Top 40 50.0 30.1 70.0% 0.184 0.3722 0.245
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 16 56.25 35.5 81.25%
3 Round (Default) 575 64.45 32.16 65.74% -0.996 -0.7617 0.635
3 Sunrise 2 100.0 25.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 89 67.42 34.72 53.93% 0.014 0.4863 -0.807
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Other 6 66.67 49.17 83.33% -0.031
4 Thematic 1119 4.92 58.22 96.43% 0.141 0.3393 0.196
4 Trapezoid (Default) 272 52.03 31.54 63.97% 0.382 0.6376 -0.288
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.098
5 Other 10 40.0 41.2 70.0% -0.173
5 Thematic 6 66.67 40.83 50.0% 0.504
6 Other 1 0.0 26.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 10 40.0 28.5 70.0%
6 Two Centers (Default) 6 50.0 36.33 83.33%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 540 27.13 45.56% -1.933 0.0419 -0.343
Aid From Lesser Spirits 479 27.41 47.81% -1.315 0.4271 -0.677
All Things Weaken 260 26.58 45.38% -1.24 0.8288 -1.446
Back Against the Wall 438 28.32 45.66% -0.746 1.1718 -0.642
Disintegrating Ecosystem 482 25.28 46.89% -1.048 1.0333 -0.612
Downward Spiral 712 27.36 51.69% -0.838 1.042 -0.312
Erosion of Will 528 27.17 45.08% -0.83 1.257 -0.734
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 87 39.31 90.8% -0.069 0.4477 0.82
Memory Fades to Dust 738 26.84 48.64% -1.531 0.547 -0.759
Power Corrodes the Spirit 229 24.76 44.1% -1.175 0.7252 -1.183
Promising Farmlands 523 24.42 43.21% -0.059 1.9742 -1.124
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 34.73 89.06% 0.177 0.6426 -0.02
Thriving Communities 248 24.68 43.55% -1.438 0.6097 -0.493
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.3
Unnatural Proliferation 278 26.44 44.24% -1.152 0.7775 -0.292
Untended Land Crumbles 271 25.61 45.02% -0.462 1.5374 -0.317

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1923 55.62% 31.48 70.1% -0.146 0.5999 -0.104
B 1788 57.01% 30.92 68.06% -0.035 0.6602 -0.528
C 1898 54.57% 31.2 71.18% -0.437 0.049 -0.259
D 1785 54.76% 31.47 70.14% -0.524 0.1885 -0.019
E 860 56.94% 31.72 68.49% 0.113 0.6742 0.536
F 1340 57.72% 31.15 66.57% 0.135 0.8048 -0.107
G 1320 58.94% 31.18 62.73% -0.785 -0.1838 -0.04
H 1373 56.16% 31.58 68.17% 0.486 1.1495 -0.44
East 2479 34.94% 46.2 75.84% 0.314 0.9175 0.123
Northeast 1819 25.81% 49.96 82.08% 0.523 1.1896 -0.046
Northwest 1578 22.84% 51.06 83.97% -0.37 0.1561 -0.232
Southeast 279 58.78% 34.78 61.65% -0.333 0.4005 -0.471
Southwest 220 60.0% 31.5 64.09% 0.633 1.527 0.824
West 2234 33.87% 46.08 76.86% 0.797 1.5664 -0.534

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 85 0.0% 27.85 78.82%
Not Using Events or Tokens 251 48.99% 29.92 74.9% 1.088 1.3228 0.249
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1357 4.57% 57.83 97.42% 0.373 -0.8103 0.308
Start of Game Growth 1472 7.52% 56.12 95.92% 0.373 -0.0586 -0.466
Unlimited Undo 721 47.04% 35.36 75.59% 0.434 -0.0478 0.57
Using Tokens but Not Events 1086 43.08% 31.83 78.73% 0.644 0.795 -1.823

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2555 22.67 36.28%
II 4341 31.11 65.98%
III 3311 34.68 85.02%
IV 1582 37.94 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.814 Win Model: 0.545
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7653 56.01% 31.74 65.99%
2 2024 56.72% 32.43 70.11%
3 680 64.5% 32.52 64.56%
4 1412 14.89% 52.75 89.66%
5 3 66.67% 40.0 33.33%
6 17 41.18% 31.12 76.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 926
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2794
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2857
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1571
Lose: Invader deck ran out 80
Lose: Adversary condition 888
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2508
Lose: Spirit destroyed 125

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)