Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 23 13.04% 9.91 -3.75 17.39% -0.627 -0.1409
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 15 26.67% 14.53 -4.421 20.0% -0.626 -0.6065
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 14 7.14% 4.29 -3.486 7.14% -0.32 -0.1659
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 8 50.0% 17.25 -6.274 25.0% -1.01 -0.8824
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 10 60.0% 14.6 -0.211 0.0% -0.855 -0.3519
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 33.33% 7.67 -7.795 0.0% -0.512 0.4613
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 -5.029 0.0% -0.107 1.8106
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 343 37.24% 21.37 -3.537 47.52% -1.052 -0.5784
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 247 50.2% 25.71 -1.302 48.18% -0.473 -0.182
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 152 59.21% 30.96 -5.615 46.05% -1.179 -0.6363
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 157 56.05% 25.06 -3.398 31.21% -1.098 -0.1521
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 64 70.31% 27.61 -2.742 26.56% -0.334 0.9439
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 64.1% 24.9 0.0 17.95%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 109 51.38% 42.38 -7.834 47.71% -0.281 1.5171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 621 47.58% 24.05 0.044 62.96% 0.088 0.3105
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 681 46.99% 25.68 -3.163 59.47% -0.586 -0.6194
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 515 51.75% 33.52 0.447 62.33% 0.213 0.2257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 333 57.66% 37.08 2.714 57.06% -0.481 -0.2396
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 172 65.7% 38.79 4.224 53.49% 0.413 0.6086
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 117 69.23% 42.9 0.304 47.01% -0.277 0.1014
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 149 81.63% 33.89 -7.548 22.15% -0.206 1.035
The Kingdom of England 0 1 610 41.97% 24.38 0.605 61.97% 0.452 0.7614
The Kingdom of England 1 3 453 53.32% 29.63 6.696 56.51% 0.796 1.116
The Kingdom of England 2 4 420 61.81% 24.45 2.162 39.76% 0.071 0.5496
The Kingdom of England 3 6 234 64.1% 27.09 -2.368 29.49% -0.595 0.4444
The Kingdom of England 4 7 162 69.14% 29.68 0.119 27.16% -0.573 0.427
The Kingdom of England 5 9 92 72.83% 28.36 -7.164 17.39% -0.33 1.1804
The Kingdom of England 6 11 200 79.8% 29.39 27.039 11.5% 0.791 2.6336
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2065 15.32% 49.16 3.087 86.59% 0.086 0.4626
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 557 57.27% 25.9 4.055 46.5% 0.279 1.1566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 459 49.46% 31.19 -0.821 37.69% -1.281 -0.0976
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 234 59.83% 35.79 8.006 37.18% 0.127 1.2676
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 148 56.08% 34.51 -8.399 27.7% -0.541 0.7682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 132 53.03% 40.72 4.874 31.82% -0.438 0.8347
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 259 51.35% 37.85 -5.484 23.94% -1.022 0.371
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 156 21.79% 10.55 0.378 25.0% 0.143 0.462
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 119 34.45% 18.09 3.622 25.21% 0.306 0.7947
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 106 33.02% 14.79 -0.31 24.53% -0.407 -0.0006
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 60 41.67% 25.37 3.084 33.33% -0.017 0.0109
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 32 62.5% 20.5 3.472 15.63% 0.005 0.5114
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 26 53.85% 27.19 24.083 34.62% 0.55 1.0072
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 31 35.48% 14.74 -5.838 16.13% -0.734 0.3459
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 546 43.41% 23.68 -4.505 62.09% -0.592 -0.3497
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 549 47.54% 25.42 1.247 57.92% 0.5 0.5348
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 488 54.51% 25.07 -4.61 48.16% -0.973 -0.732
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 300 71.33% 33.52 -2.459 51.67% -0.225 0.0258
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 211 67.3% 30.04 -4.861 40.28% -0.859 -0.1049
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 84 76.19% 30.45 -5.145 35.71% -0.494 0.6047
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 211 66.03% 30.11 -2.855 27.96% -0.733 0.1629
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 283 36.04% 19.8 -0.792 51.24% 0.058 0.2984
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 229 46.72% 21.42 -0.28 40.17% 0.014 0.7679
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 190 47.37% 26.82 -3.863 46.84% -1.254 -0.8857
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 115 46.96% 26.31 -5.172 33.04% -1.0 0.1703
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 40 52.5% 22.15 -5.193 20.0% -0.253 0.7038
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 39 71.79% 21.46 1.668 7.69% -0.61 0.9704
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 27 37.04% 10.26 0.0 3.7%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8886 47.2 26.14 58.65% 0.336 0.8621 0.348
1 Thematic 2449 52.94 29.16 48.88% -0.152 0.7025 -0.015
2 Archipelago 16 87.5 24.88 37.5% 0.316 1.3706 -0.258
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1917 48.76 26.3 57.69% -0.165 0.1129 0.042
2 Coastline 248 47.95 26.87 65.73% 0.486 0.5887 -0.509
2 Fragment 65 65.63 26.26 55.38% 0.523 0.5364 0.116
2 Heart 30 70.0 29.57 76.67% 0.663 0.7747 0.331
2 Opposite Shores 316 51.28 25.71 67.41% 0.241 0.5773 0.177
2 Thematic 660 44.98 27.64 48.33% 0.083 0.7731 -0.271
2 Top to Top 64 51.56 28.81 64.06% -0.607 -0.3648 0.265
3 Archipelago 7 57.14 27.14 57.14% -0.073
3 Coastline 9 66.67 23.78 44.44%
3 Other 23 52.17 31.22 73.91%
3 Round (Default) 939 54.5 25.74 53.04% -0.166 -0.1602 0.472
3 Sunrise 5 100.0 29.2 80.0%
3 Thematic 153 51.63 27.03 42.48% -0.34 -0.2551 -0.459
4 Archipelago 6 50.0 15.17 16.67% -0.247 -0.096 -0.153
4 Coastline 5 80.0 16.0 40.0% -0.132
4 Leaf 3 100.0 11.67 0.0% -0.211 -0.0739
4 Other 9 55.56 43.11 77.78% -0.135
4 Snake 1 0.0 41.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1504 4.46 57.44 95.41% 0.832 1.0999 -0.232
4 Trapezoid (Default) 403 50.13 26.54 53.6% -0.623 -0.4585 -0.077
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.022
5 Other 25 20.0 18.8 32.0% -0.034 -0.4198 -0.186
5 Thematic 10 40.0 24.5 30.0% 0.297
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 15.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.012
6 Other 9 33.33 15.44 55.56% 0.278 0.2477
6 Star 2 50.0 37.5 50.0% 0.438 0.4211
6 Thematic 30 23.33 16.97 40.0% -0.462 -0.3586 -0.11
6 Two Centers (Default) 35 14.29 10.51 25.71% -0.709 -0.1446 -0.267
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 672 26.14 43.9% 0.04 0.2892 0.15
Aid From Lesser Spirits 596 27.45 47.99% 0.956 0.8382 -0.166
All Things Weaken 348 26.04 45.11% 0.523 0.8606 -1.302
Attenuated Essence 61 24.92 49.18% 0.568 0.5952 -0.489
Back Against the Wall 555 27.75 45.23% -0.058 -0.0568 -0.111
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 55 20.91 45.45% -0.301 -0.0833 0.08
Burn Brightest Before the End 38 26.71 47.37% 0.981
Disintegrating Ecosystem 637 24.25 45.05% 0.264 0.6571 0.074
Downward Spiral 882 26.41 50.68% 0.24 0.3481 0.524
Erosion of Will 663 26.09 44.04% 0.039 0.3915 -0.17
Intensifying Exploitation 57 19.77 31.58% -1.167 -0.9216 -0.719
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 124 35.76 82.26% -0.198 -0.7219 0.478
Memory Fades to Dust 909 25.99 47.52% 1.472 1.7196 -0.121
Power Corrodes the Spirit 321 24.4 43.61% 0.962 1.1841 -0.61
Promising Farmlands 646 23.07 41.64% -1.344 -1.061 -0.67
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 21.09 42.86% -0.037 0.0399 -0.31
Slow Dissolution of Will 60 19.68 40.0% -0.156 0.2413 1.094
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 85 32.53 82.35% 0.6 -0.0949 0.739
The Border of Life and Death 8 16.25 37.5% 0.129 -0.4718 -0.277
Thriving Communities 336 24.26 44.35% -0.175 0.1818 0.227
Thriving Crops 14 31.5 78.57% 0.349 0.1523
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.757
Unnatural Proliferation 373 26.74 45.31% 1.231 1.3928 0.139
Untended Land Crumbles 358 24.56 41.9% -0.631 -0.3999 0.04

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3043 48.53% 26.62 59.71% -0.302 0.7025 -0.184
B 2758 50.46% 26.0 57.65% -0.228 0.6916 -0.565
C 2989 47.99% 25.77 58.75% -0.033 0.7012 -0.546
D 2717 48.42% 26.55 59.26% -0.322 0.6559 -0.284
E 1607 45.99% 24.42 53.08% 0.152 0.9714 -0.193
F 2139 48.38% 25.04 54.28% -0.334 0.5392 -0.554
G 2023 51.0% 26.25 53.68% 0.029 0.8382 -0.237
H 2042 49.73% 26.14 56.42% -0.655 0.1598 -0.433
East 3565 30.55% 41.33 68.67% 0.04 0.9427 0.05
Northeast 2543 22.72% 46.12 76.17% -0.94 -0.1323 -0.226
Northwest 2204 20.07% 47.64 78.77% -0.129 0.7709 -0.52
Southeast 509 43.42% 26.42 48.33% 0.087 0.9378 -0.139
Southwest 458 41.27% 21.39 43.89% -0.615 0.7612 -0.419
West 3224 29.55% 41.13 69.14% 0.131 1.086 -0.622

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 95 0.0% 26.22 75.79% -0.054
Not Using Events or Tokens 359 42.05% 26.28 68.8% 1.19 1.5578 0.063
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1809 4.2% 56.41 95.19% 1.289 0.7038 0.465
Start of Game Growth 1983 6.69% 54.01 92.39% 0.256 -0.258 -0.373
Unlimited Undo 1264 35.86% 26.46 56.65% -0.84 -0.949 0.039
Using Tokens but Not Events 1545 38.23% 27.03 67.44% 0.318 0.2924 -2.105

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5863 13.33 21.39%
II 5673 30.1 64.82%
III 4268 34.83 85.36%
IV 2037 38.67 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.403 Win Model: 0.123
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 11577 48.22% 26.48 55.65%
2 3130 49.69% 27.64 60.42%
3 1103 54.64% 26.28 52.77%
4 1933 14.78% 50.68 86.19%
5 23 13.04% 7.74 8.7%
6 75 22.67% 14.75 36.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1253
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3618
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3667
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2023
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2732
Lose: Invader deck ran out 100
Lose: Adversary condition 1092
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3154
Lose: Spirit destroyed 152

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)