Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 256 42.52% 24.23 -4.141 54.3% -1.104 -0.6601
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 192 54.69% 26.99 -1.44 50.0% -0.443 -0.1356
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 130 61.54% 33.68 3.074 50.0% 0.011 0.7857
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 117 64.1% 29.09 -2.205 35.9% -0.728 0.2397
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 51 70.59% 27.8 -7.797 25.49% -0.689 0.7377
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 31 70.97% 27.45 -7.931 19.35% -0.805 0.6303
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 104 51.92% 44.41 -0.304 50.0% -0.235 1.8614
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 540 49.17% 25.61 0.13 67.04% 0.211 0.4506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 566 51.41% 27.66 1.905 64.13% 0.332 0.4476
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 426 54.12% 36.51 7.109 67.61% 0.534 0.6427
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 273 63.0% 40.51 4.789 63.0% 0.521 0.7437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 150 65.33% 40.34 -0.325 56.0% -0.286 0.003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 106 69.81% 44.9 9.774 50.0% 0.185 0.7787
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 136 85.07% 35.01 0.997 22.06% -0.452 1.0342
The Kingdom of England 0 1 515 44.27% 26.05 -1.057 66.41% -0.056 0.272
The Kingdom of England 1 3 380 56.46% 31.4 5.986 59.74% 0.953 1.2563
The Kingdom of England 2 4 329 65.85% 27.12 -5.821 44.07% -1.469 -0.741
The Kingdom of England 3 6 194 69.59% 30.15 4.605 33.51% -0.22 0.9754
The Kingdom of England 4 7 146 71.92% 31.23 0.193 28.08% -0.276 0.9417
The Kingdom of England 5 9 76 80.26% 31.55 -6.251 18.42% -0.88 0.7927
The Kingdom of England 6 11 178 85.88% 30.74 -5.927 10.67% -0.27 1.7903
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1692 16.57% 50.14 1.059 88.83% 0.001 0.5552
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 486 59.47% 27.04 0.199 48.15% -0.307 0.3749
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 398 50.5% 33.28 4.966 40.95% -0.468 0.6342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 217 60.37% 35.91 2.647 36.87% -0.021 1.3709
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 134 58.96% 36.03 0.105 28.36% -0.748 0.7185
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 115 53.04% 42.45 16.054 32.17% 0.441 1.5123
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 232 53.02% 41.13 -0.854 26.29% -1.085 0.3354
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 98 23.47% 9.78 -1.647 21.43% 0.097 0.3431
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 64 31.25% 16.5 -3.898 23.44% -0.857 -0.2263
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 50 36.0% 13.18 6.015 22.0% 0.254 0.7163
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 24 45.83% 32.92 8.74 50.0% -0.039 0.4263
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 18 55.56% 23.61 -2.615 16.67% -0.054 0.7462
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 19 52.63% 27.32 11.111 36.84% 0.466 1.03
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 50.0% 29.75 -6.694 33.33% -0.101 0.8657
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 459 45.53% 25.49 -0.713 67.54% 0.057 0.2621
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 436 52.29% 28.42 -1.019 64.91% -0.458 -0.4217
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 389 60.93% 27.79 -4.231 53.47% -0.779 -0.5653
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 270 72.59% 35.6 -11.566 55.93% -0.353 0.0069
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 176 72.16% 33.84 -1.981 45.45% -0.569 0.1289
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 69 81.16% 33.62 -6.287 39.13% -0.246 0.55
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 177 70.86% 33.73 -0.323 31.07% -0.321 0.7849
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 200 41.5% 22.21 -4.864 57.5% -0.746 -0.5757
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 171 51.46% 24.88 -1.759 47.37% -0.191 0.6489
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 149 53.02% 29.56 -6.357 52.35% -1.407 -1.1884
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 86 51.16% 31.01 6.585 38.37% 0.085 1.1809
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 36 58.33% 24.61 -7.417 22.22% -0.192 0.7842
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 30 83.33% 22.0 3.206 3.33% -0.432 1.2358
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 66.67% 23.08 0.0 8.33%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7472 49.53 27.9 62.41% 0.222 0.2531 0.367
1 Thematic 2095 56.4 31.32 51.98% -0.551 -0.1192 -0.004
2 Archipelago 10 80.0 17.5 10.0% -0.58 -0.0869 -0.397
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1587 51.95 28.76 63.14% 0.337 0.2881 0.065
2 Coastline 205 49.01 28.03 68.29% 0.876 0.7753 -0.4
2 Fragment 52 68.63 25.96 55.77% 0.152
2 Heart 28 71.43 29.57 78.57% 0.197 0.1076 0.341
2 Opposite Shores 258 51.97 27.06 70.93% 0.415 0.2355 -0.06
2 Thematic 533 50.56 30.71 53.47% -0.28 -0.0938 -0.391
2 Top to Top 58 51.72 29.29 65.52% 0.872 0.6722 0.312
3 Archipelago 2 0.0 46.0 100.0% 0.494 -0.6272
3 Coastline 6 66.67 18.83 33.33% -0.768 -1.43
3 Other 20 55.0 34.8 80.0% 0.35 0.0159
3 Round (Default) 737 58.94 28.8 58.89% -0.796 -1.0617 0.537
3 Sunrise 3 100.0 25.33 100.0%
3 Thematic 112 56.25 30.39 47.32% 0.545 0.0981 -0.688
4 Archipelago 4 75.0 22.75 25.0% -0.106
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Leaf 2 100.0 14.5 0.0%
4 Other 7 57.14 42.14 71.43% -0.065
4 Thematic 1235 4.86 57.71 95.71% -0.075 0.1285 -0.109
4 Trapezoid (Default) 340 51.34 28.98 58.82% -0.455 -0.1152 -0.298
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.054
5 Other 18 22.22 25.06 44.44% -0.39 -1.1115 -0.229
5 Thematic 8 50.0 30.63 37.5% 0.237
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.061
6 Other 3 0.0 20.33 66.67%
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.216 0.0824
6 Thematic 16 31.25 21.38 50.0% -0.217 -0.1919
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 20.0 17.8 40.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 607 26.55 44.65% -0.843 -0.7041 -0.107
Aid From Lesser Spirits 550 27.14 47.27% -0.054 -0.1135 -0.376
All Things Weaken 316 26.27 45.25% 0.366 0.7208 -1.421
Attenuated Essence 34 21.24 44.12% 0.135 0.2456 -0.466
Back Against the Wall 509 28.16 45.38% 0.779 0.8554 -0.338
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 30 19.03 36.67% -0.842 -0.631 0.259
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 27.43 42.86% 0.782 0.9022 -0.084
Disintegrating Ecosystem 569 24.27 44.82% 0.298 0.6664 -0.338
Downward Spiral 786 26.92 50.64% 0.399 0.596 0.223
Erosion of Will 591 26.66 44.33% 0.246 0.5127 -0.312
Intensifying Exploitation 22 22.55 40.91% 0.812 1.0818 -0.502
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 107 37.45 87.85% 0.152 -0.3587 0.834
Memory Fades to Dust 827 26.41 48.25% -0.11 0.2017 -0.363
Power Corrodes the Spirit 275 24.51 43.27% 0.698 0.9923 -0.8
Promising Farmlands 584 23.95 43.32% 1.194 1.5298 -0.838
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 26.26 47.37% 0.312 0.421 -0.347
Slow Dissolution of Will 31 23.13 51.61% 0.157 0.5567 0.496
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 71 33.59 85.92% 0.533 -0.08 0.393
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 288 24.66 43.4% 0.747 1.0795 0.101
Thriving Crops 4 16.25 50.0%
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.617
Unnatural Proliferation 328 26.07 43.29% -0.781 -0.6336 -0.318
Untended Land Crumbles 312 25.46 44.55% 0.229 0.5364 -0.056

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2517 51.18% 28.67 63.81% -0.038 0.8672 -0.131
B 2276 52.83% 28.09 62.17% -0.503 0.3249 -0.535
C 2463 49.92% 28.1 64.27% -0.127 0.5533 -0.417
D 2282 50.6% 28.42 63.37% -0.464 0.3897 -0.132
E 1218 49.01% 26.84 57.47% -0.827 -0.1261 0.202
F 1743 52.0% 27.43 59.21% -0.367 0.4139 -0.409
G 1655 55.08% 28.7 58.37% -0.248 0.5235 -0.101
H 1699 52.17% 28.62 62.15% -0.198 0.5702 -0.403
East 2954 33.34% 42.85 70.75% 0.372 1.2341 -0.066
Northeast 2095 25.27% 47.54 78.19% -0.334 0.4127 -0.194
Northwest 1821 22.54% 48.49 79.9% 0.046 0.8791 -0.388
Southeast 400 47.5% 28.75 52.0% -0.139 0.637 -0.624
Southwest 323 47.68% 24.76 50.46% -0.138 1.1812 0.074
West 2648 32.31% 42.63 71.37% -0.889 0.1175 -0.632

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 90 0.0% 27.06 77.78% -0.045 0.7859 -0.053
Not Using Events or Tokens 295 44.79% 28.34 72.88% -0.343 0.0982 0.292
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1511 4.64% 57.02 96.36% 0.956 0.3934 0.32
Start of Game Growth 1660 7.45% 54.85 94.22% 1.055 0.5164 -0.417
Unlimited Undo 1041 39.3% 29.85 63.98% -0.421 -0.3804 0.118
Using Tokens but Not Events 1339 39.97% 28.55 70.87% -0.425 -0.4484 -1.975

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4179 16.23 24.86%
II 5025 30.54 65.19%
III 3809 34.77 85.11%
IV 1825 38.37 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.536 Win Model: 0.384
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9707 51.01% 28.45 59.49%
2 2624 52.14% 29.48 64.29%
3 862 58.97% 29.46 58.82%
4 1599 15.61% 51.23 87.24%
5 12 16.67% 13.25 16.67%
6 34 23.53% 19.71 47.06%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1038
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3219
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3267
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1814
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1368
Lose: Invader deck ran out 88
Lose: Adversary condition 994
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2866
Lose: Spirit destroyed 140

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)