Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 167 52.73% 31.95 -4.227 71.86% -0.274 0.2337
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 125 70.4% 32.14 3.756 59.2% 0.252 0.6553
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 104 71.15% 38.23 -1.36 57.69% -0.904 0.2731
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 88 73.86% 34.8 0.0 43.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 87.5% 36.06 -3.604 31.25% -0.407 1.1737
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 81.82% 41.45 0.0 36.36%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 97 52.58% 45.94 0.0 51.55%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 413 53.64% 28.59 -1.589 75.54% 0.153 0.1056
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 411 57.18% 31.81 -1.741 73.72% -0.875 -1.108
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 351 57.43% 40.75 3.715 76.07% -0.436 -0.2462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 189 68.78% 44.66 9.739 67.72% 0.062 0.4283
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 128 71.09% 45.84 12.809 64.06% 0.532 0.8908
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 87 74.71% 48.05 17.771 52.87% 0.52 1.6867
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 121 90.0% 37.63 -3.358 23.97% -0.918 0.5282
The Kingdom of England 0 1 403 49.38% 29.2 2.303 74.94% 0.199 0.7559
The Kingdom of England 1 3 298 61.62% 33.11 0.189 63.09% -0.925 -0.247
The Kingdom of England 2 4 272 74.91% 30.61 0.708 50.0% -0.373 0.7803
The Kingdom of England 3 6 151 76.82% 32.95 -3.548 35.76% -0.887 0.7896
The Kingdom of England 4 7 114 77.19% 35.5 11.825 32.46% 0.104 1.5708
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 86.21% 37.38 0.0 24.14%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 165 87.88% 32.21 0.0 11.52%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1471 16.54% 51.46 1.588 90.89% -0.236 0.4376
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 361 65.65% 31.27 2.772 55.68% 0.193 1.2649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 339 53.39% 35.04 13.759 43.36% 0.639 2.7541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 192 62.5% 37.77 5.728 38.02% -0.76 1.37
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 110 60.91% 37.89 0.0 29.09%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 94 51.06% 43.37 0.0 31.91%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 189 52.91% 44.33 3.611 28.57% -1.21 0.9651
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 13 53.85% 27.0 -0.135 53.85% -0.076 -0.1698
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 33.33% 37.33 4.0 66.67% 0.048 0.9386
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 33.33% 30.33 3.6 33.33% -0.147 1.0551
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 42.86% 52.71 10.786 85.71% 0.134 0.9927
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 39.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 100.0% 58.25 15.128 75.0% 0.376 1.6138
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 100.0% 44.67 6.585 33.33% -0.654 0.9036
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 360 51.11% 28.71 -1.401 76.94% 0.207 0.378
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 344 56.4% 31.15 1.511 71.22% 0.394 0.6139
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 296 65.54% 31.07 1.905 60.81% 0.53 0.8099
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 236 75.85% 38.27 7.165 60.17% 0.132 0.5835
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 149 75.84% 37.03 7.716 49.66% -0.067 0.9328
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 53 84.91% 37.98 -0.368 47.17% -0.701 0.3403
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 135 79.7% 37.93 0.0 34.07%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 124 54.03% 28.84 -4.929 75.81% -0.918 -1.3698
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 106 62.26% 30.77 1.903 56.6% 0.019 0.8212
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 104 66.35% 37.98 0.48 66.35% -0.595 -0.1584
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 62 64.52% 37.69 6.722 46.77% -0.19 1.0492
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 23 78.26% 33.96 0.0 30.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 100.0% 28.38 0.0 6.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 35.0 0.0 14.29%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5818 54.3 30.85 68.68% -0.2 0.4626 0.333
1 Thematic 1713 61.27 34.93 57.44% -0.509 0.548 -0.243
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 20.5 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1219 57.89 32.05 70.3% 0.577 1.0952 0.221
2 Coastline 151 53.38 30.15 73.51% 0.129 0.3297 -0.824
2 Fragment 38 76.32 26.21 55.26% 0.192
2 Heart 20 70.0 27.35 75.0% -0.097
2 Opposite Shores 187 51.37 30.12 76.47% 0.276 0.8149 -0.062
2 Thematic 377 57.45 36.4 62.86% 0.36 1.142 -0.58
2 Top to Top 40 50.0 30.1 70.0% 0.167 0.2951 0.28
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 16 56.25 35.5 81.25% 0.035 -0.6285
3 Round (Default) 571 64.37 32.13 65.85% -0.874 -0.5694 0.707
3 Sunrise 2 100.0 25.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 88 68.18 34.67 53.41% -0.79
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Other 6 66.67 49.17 83.33% -0.03
4 Thematic 1102 5.0 58.19 96.37% 0.287 0.3908 0.227
4 Trapezoid (Default) 270 52.04 31.24 63.7% -0.247 -0.1689 -0.39
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.065
5 Other 10 40.0 41.2 70.0% -0.148
5 Thematic 6 66.67 40.83 50.0% 0.483
6 Other 1 0.0 26.0 100.0% 0.012 0.0564
6 Thematic 10 40.0 28.5 70.0%
6 Two Centers (Default) 6 50.0 36.33 83.33% 0.005 0.196

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 533 27.2 45.97% -1.376 0.5949 -0.375
Aid From Lesser Spirits 476 27.39 47.69% -1.382 0.3962 -0.676
All Things Weaken 258 26.5 45.35% -1.871 0.1774 -1.449
Back Against the Wall 434 28.27 45.62% -0.366 1.573 -0.622
Disintegrating Ecosystem 478 25.28 46.65% -1.475 0.6527 -0.628
Downward Spiral 701 27.42 51.78% -0.711 1.2505 -0.311
Erosion of Will 526 27.14 44.87% -1.029 1.0524 -0.736
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 87 39.31 90.8% 0.124 0.6261 0.804
Memory Fades to Dust 729 26.92 48.7% -1.042 1.0985 -0.836
Power Corrodes the Spirit 226 24.85 44.25% -0.983 0.9975 -1.185
Promising Farmlands 521 24.45 43.38% -0.037 1.9846 -1.099
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 63 34.59 88.89% 0.204 0.7001 -0.01
Thriving Communities 246 24.46 43.5% -1.573 0.4859 -0.606
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.294
Unnatural Proliferation 275 26.43 44.36% -1.057 0.9 -0.224
Untended Land Crumbles 267 25.65 45.32% 0.367 2.4002 -0.287

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1900 55.61% 31.43 70.16% 0.008 0.7438 -0.098
B 1770 57.19% 30.95 68.08% -0.114 0.5833 -0.508
C 1874 54.47% 31.18 71.29% -0.364 0.1055 -0.335
D 1769 54.81% 31.51 70.32% -0.282 0.4278 -0.026
E 848 57.04% 31.67 68.4% -0.631 -0.087 0.502
F 1327 57.76% 31.08 66.47% 0.418 1.08 -0.187
G 1310 58.94% 31.22 62.82% -0.664 -0.0333 -0.02
H 1362 56.18% 31.57 67.99% 0.324 0.9883 -0.429
East 2449 34.91% 46.17 75.83% 0.575 1.2367 0.108
Northeast 1797 25.85% 49.9 81.91% 0.24 0.9002 -0.047
Northwest 1560 23.11% 50.97 83.78% -0.549 0.0618 -0.218
Southeast 274 58.03% 34.96 62.77% 0.228 0.7587 -0.317
Southwest 218 60.09% 31.44 63.76% 0.158 1.1263 0.769
West 2214 34.13% 45.97 76.65% 0.706 1.5121 -0.518

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 85 0.0% 27.85 78.82%
Not Using Events or Tokens 236 50.43% 30.27 73.73% -0.224 0.0026 0.241
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1340 4.63% 57.78 97.39% 0.508 -0.4724 0.323
Start of Game Growth 1455 7.61% 56.06 95.88% 0.508 0.0509 -0.47
Unlimited Undo 718 47.1% 35.38 75.63% 0.146 -0.4056 0.589
Using Tokens but Not Events 1070 42.87% 31.82 78.69% 0.555 0.7097 -1.836

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2526 22.65 36.1%
II 4297 31.08 66.0%
III 3275 34.66 85.01%
IV 1567 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.628 Win Model: 0.499
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7574 56.07% 31.77 65.95%
2 2002 56.69% 32.43 70.23%
3 676 64.43% 32.5 64.64%
4 1393 15.03% 52.63 89.52%
5 3 66.67% 40.0 33.33%
6 17 41.18% 31.12 76.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 911
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2763
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2829
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1556
Lose: Invader deck ran out 80
Lose: Adversary condition 875
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2486
Lose: Spirit destroyed 125

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)