Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 105 50.49% 30.81 -0.017 71.43% -0.438 -0.1601
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 91 71.43% 31.69 1.025 60.44% -0.395 -0.0011
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 70 68.57% 39.71 3.893 60.0% -0.741 0.1375
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 56 73.21% 38.88 4.214 53.57% -0.887 0.3642
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 23 91.3% 34.96 2.663 30.43% -1.525 -0.004
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 48.63 9.157 50.0% -0.747 1.2299
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 68.57% 42.54 6.946 42.86% -1.593 0.4565
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 485 51.35% 29.11 -1.052 77.73% -0.048 -0.0069
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 419 59.81% 31.53 0.418 72.32% -0.167 -0.1961
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 374 62.2% 40.1 4.826 75.4% -0.027 -0.0218
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 220 70.0% 44.36 6.791 66.36% -0.384 -0.0953
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 160 70.0% 45.56 7.816 64.38% -0.587 -0.2201
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 82 79.27% 47.66 8.887 52.44% -0.796 0.0337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 104 84.47% 39.91 5.137 29.81% -1.831 -0.5901
The Kingdom of England 0 1 428 47.9% 28.26 -1.437 73.6% -0.415 -0.0825
The Kingdom of England 1 3 368 61.58% 32.94 1.268 63.04% -0.663 -0.1595
The Kingdom of England 2 4 265 75.38% 30.31 0.23 48.68% -1.147 -0.1792
The Kingdom of England 3 6 198 83.33% 32.19 1.21 34.34% -1.641 -0.0632
The Kingdom of England 4 7 128 75.0% 35.87 2.328 33.59% -1.999 -0.5009
The Kingdom of England 5 9 47 82.98% 38.32 3.678 25.53% -2.027 0.04
The Kingdom of England 6 11 169 82.84% 34.47 2.535 15.38% -3.157 -0.9022
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1376 18.12% 50.75 2.599 90.92% -0.098 0.4166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 396 66.92% 30.62 -0.049 53.03% -1.042 -0.1463
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 415 55.07% 34.28 1.634 41.45% -2.197 -0.0602
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 217 63.59% 38.86 3.888 39.63% -2.058 0.1276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 118 61.86% 37.92 3.855 29.66% -2.557 -0.4099
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 119 49.58% 41.29 4.793 27.73% -2.862 -1.0416
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 200 55.0% 44.73 6.587 29.5% -2.919 -0.8123
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 381 50.39% 29.02 -1.288 76.9% -0.097 -0.0118
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 338 63.02% 29.89 -0.555 66.57% -0.445 -0.4245
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 362 65.75% 31.73 0.531 62.98% -0.536 -0.3044
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 264 75.0% 39.27 4.438 63.26% -0.461 -0.1746
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 167 76.05% 36.48 3.289 47.9% -1.149 -0.3723
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 65 84.62% 40.78 5.305 52.31% -0.77 0.3872
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 139 80.29% 38.58 3.945 39.57% -1.393 -0.262
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 79 51.9% 28.29 -1.263 78.48% 0.038 -0.0677
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 64 60.94% 28.11 -1.177 50.0% -1.224 -0.481
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 58 67.24% 40.02 4.165 72.41% -0.09 0.3417
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 43 60.47% 39.35 4.41 51.16% -1.317 -0.0676
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 71.43% 32.64 1.709 28.57% -1.686 -0.559
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 100.0% 25.69 -1.094 0.0% -2.073 -0.0544
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 35.83 2.566 16.67% -1.417 0.4879

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5803 55.35 30.3 -0.876 68.33% 0.063 0.396
1 Thematic 1807 61.74 35.11 0.915 57.11% -0.285 0.2127
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1313 59.22 31.84 -0.041 70.68% 0.312 0.5124
2 Coastline 163 55.63 31.25 -0.588 74.23% 0.355 0.5092
2 Fragment 45 73.33 27.07 -2.203 62.22% 0.043 0.4394
2 Heart 20 70.0 23.9 -3.238 65.0% -0.224 0.0986
2 Opposite Shores 234 58.08 29.85 -0.945 68.38% 0.026 0.2547
2 Thematic 447 59.42 35.87 -0.092 59.28% -0.471 -0.4099
2 Top to Top 36 55.56 31.44 -0.233 69.44% 0.143 0.2754
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.597 50.0% -0.389 -0.427
3 Other 17 52.94 34.12 0.655 82.35% 0.281 0.7007
3 Round (Default) 646 63.94 31.85 -0.295 64.09% 0.058 0.1138
3 Thematic 105 65.71 35.18 -0.97 55.24% -0.162 -0.4915
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 -6.536 50.0% -0.434 -0.3082
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.875 83.33% 0.814 0.9261
4 Thematic 1025 6.93 57.32 2.402 95.22% -0.203 -1.2269
4 Trapezoid (Default) 337 54.76 32.25 -0.693 64.99% -0.33 -0.2949
5 Other 6 33.33 40.67 1.629 66.67% -0.255 -0.51
5 Thematic 3 66.67 56.33 9.05 100.0% 0.686 -2.2576

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 618 27.32 -3.709 46.76% -2.489 -0.4158
Aid From Lesser Spirits 523 28.09 -3.167 49.52% -2.322 -0.4034
All Things Weaken 183 28.14 -3.167 48.63% -2.236 -0.0771
Back Against the Wall 471 27.78 -3.476 45.65% -2.349 -0.2546
Disintegrating Ecosystem 538 25.1 -4.932 44.24% -2.478 -0.2539
Downward Spiral 829 26.85 -3.696 51.87% -2.223 -0.2015
Erosion of Will 602 27.33 -3.706 47.34% -2.348 -0.1394
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 48 36.79 1.295 87.5% -0.181 0.5121
Memory Fades to Dust 861 26.16 -4.084 48.78% -2.404 -0.1858
Power Corrodes the Spirit 162 25.16 -4.772 45.06% -2.465 -0.4441
Promising Farmlands 607 23.94 -5.298 42.67% -2.653 -0.4381
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 35 32.69 -0.548 85.71% -0.519 -0.1076
Thriving Communities 183 24.09 -5.153 43.17% -2.541 -0.4474
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -4.012 49.12% -2.298 -0.0722
Unnatural Proliferation 194 25.77 -4.14 41.24% -2.643 -0.554
Untended Land Crumbles 183 25.94 -4.066 41.53% -2.54 -0.4343

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2356 56.73% 31.18 -0.437 69.23% 0.097 -1.0157
B 2270 58.15% 31.46 -0.283 69.21% 0.126 -1.082
C 2412 56.95% 30.78 -0.621 70.11% 0.158 -1.2809
D 2247 56.88% 30.86 -0.506 68.27% 0.095 -1.1071
E 588 58.82% 31.57 -0.235 65.31% 0.05 -1.2624
F 962 58.46% 31.0 -0.604 66.01% -0.033 -1.2992
G 1017 59.5% 31.0 -0.571 61.55% -0.065 -1.3218
H 1035 59.18% 31.26 -0.4 66.28% 0.059 -1.2072
East 1737 29.51% 48.94 2.105 80.77% 0.279 -0.7019
Northeast 1761 28.6% 48.71 2.04 79.56% 0.108 -0.8228
Northwest 1555 26.53% 49.47 1.6 81.8% 0.131 -0.8687
Southeast 209 59.81% 35.39 0.767 64.11% 0.292 -0.7334
Southwest 162 59.26% 30.96 -2.14 62.35% -0.205 -0.8255
West 1688 28.75% 48.41 1.386 79.09% -0.035 -0.7604

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 91 0.0% 26.8 -4.373 72.53% -2.444 -0.3898
Not Using Events or Tokens 304 53.02% 29.29 -0.931 71.38% -0.052 0.1655
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1270 5.64% 56.96 4.893 96.54% 0.938 0.2442
Start of Game Growth 1377 8.31% 55.3 4.21 95.42% 0.54 0.0769
Unlimited Undo 700 49.08% 35.94 0.721 74.29% 0.139 -0.2818
Using Tokens but Not Events 1107 46.28% 30.96 -0.564 75.25% 0.151 0.0987

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2556 22.34 32.79%
II 4592 30.81 65.92%
III 3293 34.31 84.66%
IV 1586 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.401 Win Model: -0.031
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7615 56.88% 31.45 65.67%
2 2256 59.22% 32.19 68.17%
3 771 63.82% 32.36 63.29%
4 1385 19.52% 50.93 87.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 586
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2093
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2100
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1180
Lose: Invader deck ran out 87
Lose: Adversary condition 878
Win: Sacrifice victory 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2665
Lose: Spirit destroyed 158

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)