Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 163 51.55% 32.12 1.834 72.39% 0.245 0.8126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 123 70.73% 32.03 -3.047 58.54% -0.683 0.0054
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 95 69.47% 39.83 4.132 62.11% 0.118 1.1648
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 88 73.86% 34.8 0.0 43.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 87.1% 36.68 16.619 32.26% 0.026 1.7298
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 81.82% 41.45 0.0 36.36%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 97 52.58% 45.94 0.0 51.55%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 394 52.67% 28.59 -4.138 75.38% -0.395 -0.1073
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 396 57.07% 31.92 1.015 74.49% 0.432 0.2153
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 339 57.1% 40.74 9.751 76.4% 0.781 0.9932
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 186 68.82% 44.64 4.698 67.74% -0.208 0.2888
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 121 73.55% 44.75 -3.458 61.98% -0.491 0.0461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 85 75.29% 47.66 15.558 51.76% 0.168 1.3474
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 119 89.83% 37.91 18.129 24.37% 0.522 2.0947
The Kingdom of England 0 1 397 50.13% 29.05 0.21 74.81% -0.061 0.3545
The Kingdom of England 1 3 292 61.86% 33.18 6.861 63.7% 0.556 1.2693
The Kingdom of England 2 4 262 74.33% 30.62 -0.91 50.0% -0.846 0.1822
The Kingdom of England 3 6 148 76.35% 33.17 -2.211 36.49% -1.242 0.416
The Kingdom of England 4 7 112 77.68% 34.9 11.502 31.25% 0.085 1.7034
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 86.21% 37.38 2.932 24.14% -0.943 1.1115
The Kingdom of England 6 11 165 87.88% 32.21 5.028 11.52% -0.333 2.0724
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1357 17.42% 50.88 1.702 90.42% 0.428 1.2307
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 353 65.44% 31.18 2.592 55.24% 0.061 0.9339
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 335 53.43% 34.78 5.656 42.69% -0.485 1.7855
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 187 62.57% 37.57 -5.252 37.43% -0.61 1.7225
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 110 60.91% 37.89 0.0 29.09%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 94 51.06% 43.37 -2.292 31.91% -1.176 0.6873
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 185 52.97% 44.37 13.31 28.65% -0.107 2.2074
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 9 55.56% 24.33 -2.962 44.44% -0.759 -0.9105
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 66.67% 23.67 -2.164 33.33% -0.501 0.3854
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 18.0 -5.156 0.0% -0.411 0.5646
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4 50.0% 57.25 11.724 100.0% 0.409 1.1281
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 39.0 -4.338 50.0% -0.479 0.8137
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 26.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 26.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 352 51.42% 28.68 -1.271 76.7% -0.248 -0.1157
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 330 57.58% 30.92 1.066 70.61% 0.411 0.3713
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 289 65.4% 30.91 -3.193 60.21% -0.679 -0.1999
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 235 75.74% 38.2 4.977 60.0% 0.053 0.3252
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 147 75.51% 36.99 5.665 49.66% -0.068 0.7694
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 49 83.67% 38.78 14.715 48.98% 0.098 0.9711
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 135 79.7% 37.93 12.265 34.07% 0.046 1.2659
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 118 52.54% 29.3 0.0 77.97%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 104 62.5% 30.34 3.723 55.77% 0.356 1.1337
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 98 66.33% 38.41 3.886 67.35% -0.176 0.3012
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 60 65.0% 37.42 3.441 46.67% -0.082 1.0959
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 23 78.26% 33.96 0.0 30.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 100.0% 28.38 0.0 6.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 35.0 0.0 14.29%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5631 54.16 30.9 68.74% -0.149 0.2981 0.35
1 Thematic 1690 61.22 34.93 57.34% 0.22 0.8229 -0.209
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 20.5 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1189 58.61 31.86 69.72% -0.169 0.2228 0.27
2 Coastline 150 53.06 30.03 73.33% 0.093 0.1814 -0.825
2 Fragment 38 76.32 26.21 55.26% 0.196
2 Heart 20 70.0 27.35 75.0% 0.186 0.4577 -0.074
2 Opposite Shores 183 52.51 29.64 75.96% 0.234 0.727 -0.277
2 Thematic 369 57.34 36.14 62.06% -0.548 -0.08 -0.574
2 Top to Top 37 48.65 30.46 70.27% 0.129 0.4107 0.284
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 16 56.25 35.5 81.25%
3 Round (Default) 555 64.61 32.11 65.95% -0.082 0.1868 0.707
3 Sunrise 2 100.0 25.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 88 68.18 34.67 53.41% -0.773
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Other 6 66.67 49.17 83.33% -0.031
4 Thematic 994 5.44 57.93 95.98% 0.145 0.2409 0.216
4 Trapezoid (Default) 262 52.87 31.15 62.98% -0.24 -0.3775 -0.41
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.036
5 Other 10 40.0 41.2 70.0% -0.095
5 Thematic 6 66.67 40.83 50.0% 0.473
6 Thematic 10 40.0 28.5 70.0% 0.005 0.3682
6 Two Centers (Default) 5 60.0 36.8 80.0% -0.168 0.2101

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 520 27.32 46.54% -1.434 0.3975 -0.27
Aid From Lesser Spirits 464 27.51 47.84% 0.628 2.2826 -0.656
All Things Weaken 251 26.84 46.22% -1.799 0.1772 -1.435
Back Against the Wall 430 28.26 45.58% -0.925 0.934 -0.603
Disintegrating Ecosystem 467 25.44 47.11% -1.038 0.9369 -0.585
Downward Spiral 685 27.42 51.53% -0.792 1.1103 -0.273
Erosion of Will 513 27.17 44.44% -0.848 1.1961 -0.725
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 79 37.73 91.14% 0.34 0.9119 1.249
Memory Fades to Dust 711 26.95 48.66% -1.313 0.6667 -0.824
Power Corrodes the Spirit 219 25.05 44.29% -0.751 1.1406 -1.167
Promising Farmlands 508 24.36 42.72% -0.388 1.6508 -1.056
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 61 34.11 88.52% 0.532 0.9723 0.011
Thriving Communities 238 24.48 43.7% 0.257 2.2215 -0.75
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.321
Unnatural Proliferation 264 26.39 44.32% -0.765 1.1407 -0.211
Untended Land Crumbles 257 25.35 44.36% -1.291 0.7431 -0.354

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1842 55.79% 31.31 69.98% -0.453 0.3154 -0.049
B 1716 57.65% 30.9 67.95% -0.14 0.553 -0.523
C 1817 54.53% 31.2 71.33% 0.068 0.6327 -0.274
D 1721 55.12% 31.49 70.19% 0.124 0.8919 -0.064
E 815 57.39% 31.63 68.1% -0.511 0.0883 0.582
F 1296 58.22% 30.99 66.05% -0.55 0.16 -0.26
G 1273 59.4% 31.3 62.61% -0.18 0.5461 -0.003
H 1324 56.2% 31.49 67.67% 0.222 0.9127 -0.464
East 2319 36.31% 45.55 74.64% 0.177 0.7993 0.093
Northeast 1678 27.33% 49.27 80.75% 0.19 0.8708 -0.041
Northwest 1448 24.55% 50.31 82.67% -0.345 0.7217 -0.206
Southeast 269 58.36% 34.71 62.08% -0.708 0.0198 -0.293
Southwest 215 60.0% 31.23 63.26% 0.382 1.3522 0.755
West 2093 35.58% 45.26 75.49% 0.04 1.0432 -0.493

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 85 0.0% 27.85 78.82%
Not Using Events or Tokens 233 50.66% 30.31 73.82% -0.449 -0.2342 0.23
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1227 4.9% 57.51 97.15% 0.529 0.4351 -0.167
Start of Game Growth 1342 8.11% 55.66 95.53% 0.719 0.0112 -0.792
Unlimited Undo 699 47.4% 35.16 75.39% 0.233 -0.4662 0.604
Using Tokens but Not Events 1039 42.59% 31.73 78.63% 0.361 0.3155 -1.869

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2421 22.6 34.53%
II 4145 31.02 65.74%
III 3187 34.59 84.91%
IV 1522 37.83 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.187 Win Model: 0.162
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7363 55.97% 31.83 65.94%
2 1955 57.19% 32.21 69.67%
3 662 64.59% 32.51 64.65%
4 1277 16.16% 52.08 88.65%
5 3 66.67% 40.0 33.33%
6 15 46.67% 31.27 73.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 835
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2687
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2718
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1511
Lose: Invader deck ran out 79
Lose: Adversary condition 862
Win: Sacrifice victory 38
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2421
Lose: Spirit destroyed 124

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)