Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 185 50.27% 30.12 -2.766 68.11% -0.218 -0.0077
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 141 65.96% 31.19 -0.476 57.45% -0.303 0.1318
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 109 67.89% 37.62 -2.151 56.88% -0.373 0.3598
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 94 70.21% 32.57 -9.3 40.43% -1.208 -0.15
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 34 85.29% 33.94 -11.138 29.41% -0.606 0.6884
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 20 85.0% 34.15 1.927 25.0% -0.459 1.1354
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 98 53.06% 46.18 17.633 52.04% 0.109 2.0496
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 449 52.9% 28.03 0.415 74.16% 0.364 0.462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 437 57.67% 31.16 -1.769 72.08% -0.61 -0.7024
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 363 57.46% 40.03 -1.723 74.38% -0.88 -0.9436
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 206 66.5% 42.5 -4.118 64.08% -0.954 -0.6925
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 130 70.0% 45.13 -8.334 63.08% -0.586 -0.5228
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 90 73.33% 47.17 -8.685 52.22% -0.567 -0.123
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 122 90.0% 37.32 -7.289 23.77% -0.383 0.8992
The Kingdom of England 0 1 427 49.41% 28.72 -0.135 73.54% 0.203 0.3789
The Kingdom of England 1 3 317 61.08% 32.77 2.426 61.83% -0.181 0.0333
The Kingdom of England 2 4 283 73.05% 30.32 -1.497 49.82% -0.615 0.1382
The Kingdom of England 3 6 165 75.76% 31.83 -3.477 33.94% -1.593 -0.4321
The Kingdom of England 4 7 121 74.38% 34.12 -4.633 31.4% -0.847 0.1676
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 86.21% 37.38 0.0 24.14%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 167 87.43% 32.03 -3.938 11.38% -0.838 1.1813
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1531 16.61% 51.38 4.379 90.66% 0.291 0.6443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 384 65.1% 30.64 0.15 54.69% -0.126 0.8428
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 347 53.03% 35.14 11.26 43.52% 0.154 1.2428
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 196 62.24% 37.88 11.472 38.27% -0.302 1.0863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 116 62.07% 38.65 11.67 30.17% -0.377 1.0562
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 99 51.52% 43.33 14.852 32.32% 0.254 1.2263
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 207 51.69% 43.47 2.348 28.5% -1.407 -0.0511
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 22 45.45% 17.18 -7.702 31.82% -1.601 -1.6881
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 14 42.86% 32.0 1.92 50.0% -0.531 -0.0972
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 11 27.27% 13.55 -7.355 18.18% -0.833 -0.4284
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 54.55% 47.55 10.53 72.73% 0.58 0.912
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 87.5% 44.5 9.322 37.5% -0.127 0.4368
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 66.67% 38.83 -8.413 50.0% -0.642 0.098
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 80.0% 55.8 25.402 60.0% 0.636 1.9137
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 381 49.61% 27.94 -2.814 74.8% -0.252 -0.1024
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 361 55.96% 30.93 3.085 71.19% 0.968 0.9578
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 317 64.35% 30.8 2.167 60.25% 0.055 0.2869
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 247 74.49% 37.38 -1.125 58.7% -0.605 -0.2597
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 154 75.97% 36.6 1.521 49.35% -0.076 0.5409
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 56 85.71% 37.95 4.952 44.64% -0.476 0.472
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 142 77.14% 36.61 -9.221 33.1% -1.194 -0.3895
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 131 52.67% 28.12 -0.979 73.28% -0.156 -0.1141
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 122 59.02% 30.11 1.806 56.56% -0.005 0.5987
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 114 62.28% 35.9 -4.241 63.16% -0.609 -0.3169
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 66 62.12% 35.76 -6.532 43.94% -0.965 0.1402
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 27 74.07% 31.85 3.114 29.63% -0.014 1.0158
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 88.89% 25.22 -9.756 5.56% -0.657 0.7752
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 88.89% 30.78 -10.662 11.11% -0.96 0.9967

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6187 53.31 30.37 67.85% -0.023 0.1865 0.263
1 Thematic 1779 60.57 34.47 56.83% -0.088 0.5111 -0.179
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 13.67 33.33% -0.158 0.1986
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1295 57.27 31.42 68.8% 0.134 0.2939 0.125
2 Coastline 159 53.21 29.86 72.96% -0.264 -0.203 -0.341
2 Fragment 43 72.09 26.67 58.14% 0.289 0.2252 0.166
2 Heart 24 75.0 28.25 75.0% 0.541 0.3027 0.179
2 Opposite Shores 205 53.23 29.83 77.07% 1.056 1.1901 -0.14
2 Thematic 412 55.23 34.93 60.92% -0.255 0.3817 -0.467
2 Top to Top 43 53.49 29.58 67.44% 0.06 0.1006 0.248
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 16 56.25 35.5 81.25%
3 Round (Default) 601 63.48 31.56 65.22% 0.167 0.1259 0.592
3 Sunrise 2 100.0 25.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 97 64.95 32.75 49.48% -0.651 -0.6145 -0.726
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 33.5 50.0% 0.539 0.3244 -0.234
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Other 6 66.67 49.17 83.33% 0.282 -0.5672 -0.043
4 Thematic 1148 4.88 58.14 96.34% 0.537 0.5196 0.103
4 Trapezoid (Default) 282 51.79 31.2 62.77% -0.764 -0.9503 -0.24
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.063
5 Other 11 36.36 37.45 63.64% -0.098 -0.6068 -0.164
5 Thematic 7 57.14 35.0 42.86% -0.043 -0.3733 0.238
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.234 -0.8775 -0.093
6 Other 1 0.0 26.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 12 33.33 23.75 58.33% -0.458 -0.059
6 Two Centers (Default) 9 33.33 24.22 55.56% -0.898 -0.8543

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 557 26.99 45.96% 0.584 0.8549 -0.252
Aid From Lesser Spirits 494 27.33 47.77% 0.005 0.0435 -0.591
All Things Weaken 271 26.79 45.39% 0.085 0.5452 -1.425
Attenuated Essence 4 22.0 25.0% -0.607 -0.4018
Back Against the Wall 454 28.25 45.37% -0.322 -0.16 -0.538
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 39.25 50.0% 0.276 0.6909 0.155
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 45.5 100.0% 0.507 0.8113 0.286
Disintegrating Ecosystem 498 25.01 46.79% -0.419 0.1073 -0.515
Downward Spiral 728 27.3 51.79% 0.114 0.4667 -0.206
Erosion of Will 544 27.16 45.59% 0.255 0.6636 -0.66
Intensifying Exploitation 2 40.5 100.0% 0.715 1.1021
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 91 38.58 90.11% 0.343 -0.1822 0.662
Memory Fades to Dust 756 26.95 49.21% 0.584 1.0654 -0.636
Power Corrodes the Spirit 239 24.6 43.93% -0.185 0.1195 -1.231
Promising Farmlands 536 24.33 43.47% 0.196 0.7822 -1.037
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 21.71 57.14% 0.289 0.4675
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 33.75 100.0% 0.744 1.278
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 34.73 89.06% 0.049
Thriving Communities 255 24.53 43.14% -0.462 0.0308 -0.378
Thriving Crops 2 19.5 50.0% -0.143 -0.055
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.385
Unnatural Proliferation 295 26.29 43.39% -0.66 -0.3634 -0.385
Untended Land Crumbles 279 25.58 44.8% -0.251 0.1067 -0.236

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2025 55.31% 31.05 69.43% -0.031 0.8089 -0.153
B 1873 56.48% 30.49 67.38% -0.346 0.4322 -0.64
C 2013 53.76% 30.61 70.14% -0.092 0.5622 -0.361
D 1879 54.17% 30.92 69.08% -0.294 0.5054 -0.075
E 917 55.9% 31.04 66.85% -0.662 -0.0337 0.446
F 1411 56.44% 30.5 65.27% -0.373 0.3459 -0.262
G 1386 58.08% 30.83 62.34% -0.079 0.6632 -0.011
H 1434 55.08% 30.77 66.6% -1.049 -0.4008 -0.497
East 2579 34.55% 45.52 74.84% 0.014 0.6186 -0.1
Northeast 1878 25.43% 49.45 81.2% -0.963 -0.0819 -0.244
Northwest 1628 22.45% 50.59 83.29% -0.593 0.0799 -0.402
Southeast 301 56.81% 33.34 59.47% -0.617 0.0196 -0.689
Southwest 238 56.72% 29.98 61.34% -0.727 0.4378 0.66
West 2320 33.3% 45.49 76.03% -0.48 0.4843 -0.608

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 86 0.0% 27.52 77.91% -0.383 0.4998 -0.017
Not Using Events or Tokens 255 48.61% 29.84 74.9% 0.24 0.5717 0.297
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1386 4.47% 57.75 97.33% 1.037 0.5019 0.317
Start of Game Growth 1507 7.48% 55.95 95.69% 0.63 0.2996 -0.473
Unlimited Undo 763 45.82% 34.31 74.18% -0.173 -0.195 0.484
Using Tokens but Not Events 1126 42.24% 31.38 77.62% -0.029 -0.0829 -1.907

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2807 21.03 34.06%
II 4484 31.04 66.12%
III 3426 34.74 84.94%
IV 1641 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.312 Win Model: 0.16
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8034 55.09% 31.23 65.07%
2 2135 56.15% 31.89 69.32%
3 711 63.51% 31.86 63.85%
4 1451 14.85% 52.58 89.32%
5 6 33.33% 20.0 16.67%
6 21 33.33% 25.19 61.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 955
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2888
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2958
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1630
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 188
Lose: Invader deck ran out 83
Lose: Adversary condition 904
Win: Sacrifice victory 41
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2582
Lose: Spirit destroyed 129

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)