Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 119 49.57% 31.45 0.249 73.11% -0.392 -0.103
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 98 71.43% 31.59 0.967 60.2% -0.442 -0.0277
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 73 68.49% 39.66 3.957 60.27% -0.72 0.1634
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 80 76.25% 34.04 2.331 41.25% -1.344 -0.1016
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 24 91.67% 34.46 2.497 29.17% -1.571 -0.0741
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 48.63 9.229 50.0% -0.737 1.2024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 41 63.41% 44.15 7.664 46.34% -1.583 0.4596
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 505 50.5% 29.18 -1.017 77.82% -0.063 -0.0223
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 447 58.3% 31.69 0.489 72.71% -0.173 -0.1916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 400 61.65% 39.94 4.78 75.0% -0.054 -0.0404
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 225 70.22% 44.52 6.867 67.11% -0.346 -0.0628
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 163 69.33% 45.83 7.938 65.03% -0.572 -0.2124
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 87 78.16% 47.9 9.014 52.87% -0.814 0.0112
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 112 85.59% 39.81 5.154 29.46% -1.82 -0.5812
The Kingdom of England 0 1 449 48.33% 28.37 -1.364 73.94% -0.387 -0.057
The Kingdom of England 1 3 382 61.68% 32.63 1.158 62.3% -0.696 -0.1795
The Kingdom of England 2 4 276 75.27% 30.46 0.33 49.28% -1.115 -0.1412
The Kingdom of England 3 6 208 83.17% 32.24 1.28 34.62% -1.63 -0.05
The Kingdom of England 4 7 134 76.12% 36.12 2.533 34.33% -1.92 -0.4255
The Kingdom of England 5 9 62 87.1% 34.79 2.341 19.35% -2.303 -0.2322
The Kingdom of England 6 11 174 83.33% 34.37 2.437 14.94% -3.213 -0.9693
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1511 17.03% 51.33 2.583 91.26% -0.128 0.3831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 409 66.99% 30.76 0.0 53.55% -1.013 -0.1105
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 426 54.59% 34.27 1.63 41.08% -2.237 -0.0955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 224 62.95% 38.54 3.756 38.84% -2.129 0.0693
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 121 62.81% 37.91 3.878 29.75% -2.532 -0.3715
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 120 50.0% 41.53 4.901 28.33% -2.857 -1.04
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 210 53.81% 44.65 6.487 29.05% -2.982 -0.891
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 392 50.51% 28.98 -1.289 77.04% -0.072 0.0162
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 357 63.31% 29.69 -0.591 65.83% -0.475 -0.4404
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 371 66.04% 31.47 0.44 62.26% -0.562 -0.3246
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 271 75.65% 38.89 4.277 62.36% -0.482 -0.1921
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 173 75.72% 36.74 3.412 48.55% -1.13 -0.3493
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 67 85.07% 40.15 5.035 50.75% -0.818 0.3506
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 141 79.86% 38.71 4.005 39.72% -1.397 -0.2742
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 86 54.65% 28.55 -1.126 77.91% 0.082 -0.0069
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 69 62.32% 27.96 -1.236 49.28% -1.231 -0.4521
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 71 64.79% 39.65 4.227 71.83% -0.137 0.2743
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 50 64.0% 36.22 3.062 44.0% -1.583 -0.3386
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 71.43% 32.64 1.709 28.57% -1.686 -0.5782
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 14 100.0% 25.79 -1.069 0.0% -2.119 -0.1353
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 35.83 2.539 16.67% -1.405 0.4669

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6150 55.31 30.28 -0.866 68.15% 0.144 0.2309
1 Thematic 1879 61.71 34.93 0.821 56.68% -0.148 0.1289
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1376 59.35 31.69 -0.096 70.35% 0.298 0.3239
2 Coastline 175 55.23 31.39 -0.499 75.43% 0.422 0.3973
2 Fragment 46 73.91 26.65 -2.389 60.87% -0.015 0.2081
2 Heart 21 66.67 25.29 -2.643 66.67% -0.094 0.0058
2 Opposite Shores 250 55.51 29.71 -1.089 69.2% 0.014 0.0794
2 Thematic 462 59.44 35.92 -0.077 60.17% -0.267 -0.3341
2 Top to Top 40 57.5 31.65 -0.206 67.5% 0.141 0.0719
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.68 50.0% -0.417 -0.5672
3 Other 18 55.56 35.44 1.28 83.33% 0.454 0.6266
3 Round (Default) 669 63.53 32.06 -0.198 64.72% 0.038 -0.0008
3 Thematic 107 66.36 35.15 -1.024 55.14% 0.009 -0.3571
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 -6.585 50.0% -0.496 -0.3763
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.84 83.33% 0.751 0.6819
4 Thematic 1148 6.28 57.68 2.434 95.73% 0.037 -0.9593
4 Trapezoid (Default) 343 54.39 32.25 -0.736 65.01% -0.45 -0.4415
5 Archipelago 1 100.0 31.0 -0.629 0.0% -0.166 0.9939
5 Other 6 33.33 40.67 1.604 66.67% -0.237 -0.698
5 Thematic 5 60.0 44.0 2.769 60.0% 0.013 -2.3787

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 649 27.24 -3.694 47.0% -2.475 -0.4056
Aid From Lesser Spirits 550 27.99 -3.208 48.73% -2.343 -0.43
All Things Weaken 197 27.6 -3.389 46.7% -2.316 -0.157
Back Against the Wall 492 27.76 -3.472 45.33% -2.353 -0.266
Disintegrating Ecosystem 563 25.09 -4.893 44.23% -2.466 -0.2439
Downward Spiral 862 26.75 -3.734 51.62% -2.248 -0.2267
Erosion of Will 633 27.34 -3.677 46.76% -2.356 -0.1481
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 55 37.36 1.654 89.09% -0.07 0.6085
Memory Fades to Dust 899 26.13 -4.07 48.39% -2.424 -0.2087
Power Corrodes the Spirit 177 25.02 -4.748 44.63% -2.484 -0.4629
Promising Farmlands 627 23.94 -5.256 42.9% -2.632 -0.4237
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 37 32.57 -0.552 86.49% -0.481 -0.0699
Thriving Communities 200 24.11 -5.101 43.0% -2.519 -0.4307
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -3.995 49.12% -2.292 -0.0676
Unnatural Proliferation 207 26.04 -4.007 41.06% -2.627 -0.5461
Untended Land Crumbles 197 25.35 -4.321 41.12% -2.585 -0.4825

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2450 56.49% 31.14 -0.448 69.31% -0.049 -0.7373
B 2375 57.97% 31.33 -0.35 68.84% -0.033 -0.8163
C 2510 56.91% 30.86 -0.568 70.28% 0.029 -0.9837
D 2337 56.55% 30.83 -0.524 68.55% -0.038 -0.8158
E 639 58.82% 31.51 -0.217 65.57% -0.062 -0.9564
F 1045 58.47% 30.96 -0.601 65.65% -0.196 -1.0368
G 1069 59.41% 31.12 -0.499 61.83% -0.192 -1.0239
H 1105 58.55% 31.31 -0.363 66.06% -0.088 -0.927
East 1881 27.78% 49.52 2.096 81.61% 0.038 -0.5385
Northeast 1915 27.5% 49.21 2.051 80.52% -0.092 -0.617
Northwest 1695 25.16% 50.09 1.645 82.77% -0.092 -0.6867
Southeast 215 59.53% 35.44 0.803 63.72% 0.051 -0.5779
Southwest 174 59.77% 31.26 -1.938 62.07% -0.355 -0.554
West 1841 27.39% 48.94 1.417 80.07% -0.25 -0.5773

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 103 0.0% 26.92 -4.034 75.73% -2.283 -0.2305
Not Using Events or Tokens 312 52.61% 29.38 -0.859 72.12% -0.0 0.2147
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1398 5.26% 57.22 4.802 96.85% 0.926 0.2395
Start of Game Growth 1519 8.05% 55.5 4.134 95.66% 0.591 0.1225
Unlimited Undo 754 48.58% 35.54 0.594 74.8% 0.124 -0.2987
Using Tokens but Not Events 1172 45.4% 30.96 -0.547 76.19% 0.19 0.139

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2750 22.37 34.36%
II 4839 30.88 65.92%
III 3469 34.39 84.55%
IV 1658 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.427 Win Model: 0.179
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8045 56.85% 31.38 65.43%
2 2359 58.92% 32.13 68.5%
3 796 63.57% 32.47 63.69%
4 1516 18.1% 51.62 88.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 693
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2237
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2263
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1252
Lose: Invader deck ran out 89
Lose: Adversary condition 932
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2803
Lose: Spirit destroyed 166

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)