Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 95 52.69% 30.31 -0.125 71.58% -0.367 -0.0861
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 87 71.26% 31.79 1.059 60.92% -0.37 0.0195
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 67 70.15% 39.73 3.916 59.7% -0.74 0.1302
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 52 71.15% 39.71 4.559 55.77% -0.842 0.4148
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 90.48% 32.38 1.294 23.81% -1.799 -0.2707
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 48.63 9.146 50.0% -0.747 1.2787
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 68.57% 42.54 6.909 42.86% -1.632 0.4378
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 473 52.02% 28.99 -1.071 77.38% -0.041 -0.0027
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 395 60.41% 31.44 0.388 71.9% -0.159 -0.1896
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 363 61.88% 40.11 4.845 75.48% -0.017 -0.0127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 212 70.28% 44.47 6.813 66.51% -0.373 -0.0813
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 154 70.13% 45.3 7.724 63.64% -0.605 -0.2438
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 79 78.48% 47.99 9.048 53.16% -0.769 0.0597
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 95 85.11% 40.47 5.425 31.58% -1.693 -0.4487
The Kingdom of England 0 1 413 48.43% 28.17 -1.457 73.37% -0.409 -0.0778
The Kingdom of England 1 3 362 61.77% 32.89 1.275 62.98% -0.646 -0.1459
The Kingdom of England 2 4 254 74.7% 30.34 0.213 48.43% -1.16 -0.1909
The Kingdom of England 3 6 191 83.77% 32.48 1.346 35.08% -1.574 0.0052
The Kingdom of England 4 7 127 74.8% 35.7 2.258 33.07% -2.023 -0.5215
The Kingdom of England 5 9 45 82.22% 38.89 3.921 26.67% -1.958 0.1115
The Kingdom of England 6 11 168 82.74% 34.51 2.573 15.48% -3.146 -0.8943
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1339 18.1% 50.8 2.599 90.89% -0.091 0.4337
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 383 66.58% 30.74 0.025 53.26% -1.024 -0.1306
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 405 54.95% 34.41 1.723 41.73% -2.169 -0.0396
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 209 64.11% 38.67 3.83 39.23% -2.031 0.1553
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 115 61.74% 37.44 3.63 28.7% -2.609 -0.4668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 118 49.15% 41.08 4.696 27.12% -2.885 -1.0623
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 192 53.65% 44.65 6.491 29.17% -2.958 -0.8428
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 366 51.09% 28.97 -1.29 76.23% -0.11 -0.021
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 325 63.38% 29.81 -0.555 66.15% -0.439 -0.419
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 353 65.44% 31.92 0.609 63.46% -0.509 -0.2864
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 250 75.2% 39.15 4.396 62.8% -0.459 -0.1737
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 159 76.1% 36.45 3.274 47.8% -1.153 -0.3851
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 64 84.38% 40.56 5.193 51.56% -0.796 0.3642
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 132 80.0% 39.03 4.124 40.91% -1.337 -0.2042
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 71 52.11% 27.72 -1.546 76.06% -0.129 -0.2487
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 56 66.07% 27.41 -1.543 46.43% -1.255 -0.5362
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 53 66.04% 40.13 4.088 71.7% -0.114 0.3279
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 39 64.1% 37.44 3.458 46.15% -1.461 -0.2104
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 69.23% 33.62 2.189 30.77% -1.612 -0.4886
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 100.0% 25.5 -1.125 0.0% -1.982 0.0647
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 28.5 -1.763 0.0% -1.655 0.2789

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5564 55.49 30.24 -0.888 68.22% 0.058 0.3856
1 Thematic 1756 62.11 35.05 0.911 56.55% -0.308 0.1661
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1264 59.47 31.76 -0.068 70.33% 0.3 0.4968
2 Coastline 149 56.16 31.05 -0.677 74.5% 0.368 0.5187
2 Fragment 40 72.5 27.5 -2.122 62.5% 0.046 0.4498
2 Heart 20 70.0 23.9 -3.125 65.0% -0.212 0.1004
2 Opposite Shores 226 58.37 29.99 -0.849 69.03% 0.059 0.2822
2 Thematic 431 59.53 35.97 -0.041 59.16% -0.484 -0.4554
2 Top to Top 35 57.14 31.46 -0.173 68.57% 0.14 0.2802
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.584 50.0% -0.394 -0.4407
3 Other 17 52.94 34.12 0.68 82.35% 0.295 0.7337
3 Round (Default) 624 64.11 31.76 -0.326 63.94% 0.068 0.126
3 Thematic 103 66.02 34.96 -1.045 54.37% -0.199 -0.56
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 -6.445 50.0% -0.413 -0.2419
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.869 83.33% 0.811 0.9421
4 Thematic 1004 6.98 57.27 2.379 95.12% -0.255 -1.3145
4 Trapezoid (Default) 318 55.52 32.31 -0.63 65.41% -0.256 -0.2182
5 Other 6 33.33 40.67 1.63 66.67% -0.266 -0.4646
5 Thematic 3 66.67 56.33 9.086 100.0% 0.668 -2.2882

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 599 27.41 -3.633 47.25% -2.454 -0.3835
Aid From Lesser Spirits 502 28.0 -3.195 49.0% -2.315 -0.3933
All Things Weaken 165 28.16 -3.19 47.88% -2.234 -0.0808
Back Against the Wall 463 27.81 -3.446 45.79% -2.327 -0.2305
Disintegrating Ecosystem 520 24.82 -5.023 44.23% -2.463 -0.2369
Downward Spiral 801 26.9 -3.626 52.18% -2.183 -0.164
Erosion of Will 585 27.19 -3.772 47.01% -2.348 -0.1373
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 45 36.53 1.214 86.67% -0.19 0.5037
Memory Fades to Dust 836 25.94 -4.172 48.56% -2.4 -0.1846
Power Corrodes the Spirit 152 24.78 -4.934 44.08% -2.509 -0.4916
Promising Farmlands 588 24.03 -5.234 42.52% -2.628 -0.4142
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 33 32.82 -0.539 84.85% -0.541 -0.1112
Thriving Communities 171 24.19 -5.075 43.27% -2.524 -0.4281
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -3.988 49.12% -2.272 -0.0503
Unnatural Proliferation 180 25.61 -4.219 41.67% -2.614 -0.5273
Untended Land Crumbles 175 26.13 -3.978 41.71% -2.509 -0.4129

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2268 56.81% 31.11 -0.451 69.31% 0.096 -1.0051
B 2190 58.31% 31.39 -0.292 69.04% 0.115 -1.0808
C 2335 57.16% 30.77 -0.599 70.15% 0.165 -1.2639
D 2172 57.24% 30.83 -0.503 68.14% 0.088 -1.1032
E 520 60.39% 31.7 -0.141 65.58% 0.122 -1.1773
F 915 58.78% 30.93 -0.616 65.68% -0.044 -1.2986
G 975 59.71% 30.91 -0.611 61.23% -0.084 -1.3267
H 975 59.33% 31.2 -0.428 65.95% 0.046 -1.2116
East 1699 29.46% 48.98 2.145 80.87% 0.324 -0.6359
Northeast 1720 28.81% 48.65 1.99 79.13% 0.087 -0.8138
Northwest 1521 26.66% 49.45 1.6 81.53% 0.133 -0.8414
Southeast 197 59.9% 35.42 0.796 64.47% 0.306 -0.6978
Southwest 157 59.87% 30.69 -2.331 61.15% -0.268 -0.8673
West 1647 28.68% 48.46 1.389 78.99% -0.029 -0.7286

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 90 0.0% 26.66 -4.437 72.22% -2.475 -0.4266
Not Using Events or Tokens 285 54.48% 29.22 -0.931 70.53% -0.047 0.174
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1237 5.54% 57.13 4.976 96.69% 1.024 0.3187
Start of Game Growth 1344 8.28% 55.41 4.274 95.54% 0.567 0.1152
Unlimited Undo 675 48.89% 35.99 0.734 74.07% 0.123 -0.2941
Using Tokens but Not Events 1068 46.95% 31.02 -0.511 75.19% 0.184 0.1331

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2480 22.33 32.46%
II 4445 30.75 66.01%
III 3139 34.25 84.74%
IV 1516 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.405 Win Model: -0.046
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7325 57.09% 31.4 65.43%
2 2163 59.46% 32.18 68.01%
3 747 63.99% 32.26 63.05%
4 1345 19.43% 51.07 87.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 553
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1966
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2007
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1111
Lose: Invader deck ran out 77
Lose: Adversary condition 850
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2584
Lose: Spirit destroyed 154

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)