Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 83 56.79% 29.76 -0.356 68.67% -0.403 -0.1222
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 78 74.36% 30.62 0.628 56.41% -0.483 -0.1096
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 58 72.41% 39.71 3.769 58.62% -0.772 0.0758
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 46 69.57% 40.96 5.123 58.7% -0.709 0.5291
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 19 89.47% 29.42 -0.162 15.79% -2.089 -0.5671
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 66.67% 48.67 8.926 50.0% -0.871 1.1566
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16 93.75% 39.25 5.195 31.25% -1.613 0.4796
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 447 53.03% 28.96 -1.051 77.18% -0.023 0.0242
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 363 60.22% 31.35 0.351 71.07% -0.207 -0.2358
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 347 62.14% 40.08 4.86 75.22% -0.007 -0.0093
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 197 70.56% 44.73 6.931 67.01% -0.347 -0.0625
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 146 70.55% 45.2 7.697 63.01% -0.625 -0.2471
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 78 79.49% 47.76 8.992 52.56% -0.756 0.0771
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 86 84.71% 40.56 5.433 31.4% -1.687 -0.4381
The Kingdom of England 0 1 383 48.04% 28.21 -1.43 73.11% -0.427 -0.094
The Kingdom of England 1 3 344 61.22% 32.79 1.277 62.5% -0.654 -0.1711
The Kingdom of England 2 4 229 74.56% 30.54 0.26 48.91% -1.132 -0.175
The Kingdom of England 3 6 176 84.09% 31.99 1.111 33.52% -1.614 -0.0369
The Kingdom of England 4 7 120 74.17% 36.17 2.461 34.17% -1.955 -0.4326
The Kingdom of England 5 9 45 82.22% 38.89 3.932 26.67% -1.955 0.1089
The Kingdom of England 6 11 162 83.33% 33.94 2.318 14.2% -3.231 -0.9758
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1150 20.3% 49.6 2.572 89.91% -0.084 0.4408
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 361 66.48% 30.45 -0.112 51.8% -1.093 -0.202
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 386 54.55% 34.67 1.836 42.23% -2.141 -0.0129
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 203 63.55% 38.74 3.887 39.41% -2.024 0.1627
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 107 60.75% 37.25 3.504 28.04% -2.646 -0.5003
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 114 49.12% 41.25 4.769 27.19% -2.849 -1.0306
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 180 52.78% 44.31 6.306 28.33% -3.021 -0.8857
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 338 49.41% 29.15 -1.199 76.33% -0.14 -0.055
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 302 63.58% 29.8 -0.513 65.89% -0.429 -0.4194
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 334 66.47% 31.82 0.615 62.87% -0.504 -0.2866
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 240 75.42% 39.3 4.495 63.33% -0.426 -0.1415
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 150 76.0% 36.97 3.554 49.33% -1.054 -0.2765
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 63 85.71% 40.32 5.088 50.79% -0.796 0.3692
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 125 80.49% 38.92 4.061 40.8% -1.339 -0.2069
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 57 54.39% 27.63 -1.492 77.19% -0.036 -0.153
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 48 66.67% 26.4 -1.866 43.75% -1.242 -0.5533
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 49 65.31% 40.76 4.445 73.47% -0.004 0.4321
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 60.61% 38.79 4.048 48.48% -1.428 -0.1532
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 81.82% 27.45 -0.405 18.18% -1.718 -0.5606
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 100.0% 25.5 -0.928 0.0% -1.641 0.3955
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 28.33 -2.722 0.0% -1.575 0.3746

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5167 55.6 30.09 -0.954 67.8% 0.055 0.4096
1 Thematic 1657 62.08 35.11 1.001 56.07% -0.263 0.2344
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1156 59.4 31.97 0.042 70.93% 0.304 0.4935
2 Coastline 142 57.55 31.08 -0.626 73.94% 0.358 0.4932
2 Fragment 35 71.43 28.6 -1.775 62.86% 0.098 0.5234
2 Heart 20 70.0 23.9 -3.121 65.0% -0.236 0.0542
2 Opposite Shores 210 60.0 29.85 -0.914 68.1% 0.004 0.2305
2 Thematic 409 60.29 35.9 0.036 58.92% -0.435 -0.3909
2 Top to Top 33 57.58 31.39 -0.077 66.67% 0.064 0.1805
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.484 50.0% -0.441 -0.4793
3 Other 15 53.33 35.4 1.229 86.67% 0.514 0.9161
3 Round (Default) 590 64.42 31.96 -0.268 63.9% -0.003 0.0285
3 Thematic 95 65.26 34.68 -1.134 52.63% -0.308 -0.6471
4 Coastline 3 100.0 22.33 -3.729 66.67% 0.015 0.1377
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.872 83.33% 0.707 0.7874
4 Thematic 829 7.97 56.71 2.344 94.33% -0.385 -1.4633
4 Trapezoid (Default) 296 54.92 32.82 -0.426 66.89% -0.337 -0.3698
5 Other 5 40.0 40.8 1.28 60.0% -0.336 -0.5531
5 Thematic 3 66.67 56.33 9.307 100.0% 0.655 -2.112

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 573 27.34 -3.638 46.95% -2.434 -0.3655
Aid From Lesser Spirits 474 28.25 -3.082 49.37% -2.264 -0.347
All Things Weaken 137 28.31 -3.109 45.99% -2.26 -0.0998
Back Against the Wall 427 27.44 -3.581 45.2% -2.344 -0.2523
Disintegrating Ecosystem 494 24.8 -5.005 44.13% -2.426 -0.2045
Downward Spiral 759 26.91 -3.571 51.65% -2.169 -0.1547
Erosion of Will 542 27.53 -3.61 47.05% -2.302 -0.091
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 39 36.46 1.031 87.18% -0.287 0.4244
Memory Fades to Dust 783 25.77 -4.211 48.15% -2.39 -0.1741
Power Corrodes the Spirit 134 24.57 -5.109 42.54% -2.553 -0.5328
Promising Farmlands 555 24.0 -5.201 42.52% -2.597 -0.3829
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 33.87 -0.144 90.0% -0.163 0.2536
Thriving Communities 152 23.93 -5.03 43.42% -2.485 -0.3782
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -3.948 49.12% -2.24 -0.0243
Unnatural Proliferation 157 25.29 -4.295 39.49% -2.641 -0.5603
Untended Land Crumbles 149 26.61 -3.685 42.95% -2.435 -0.3398

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2141 56.63% 31.27 -0.348 69.41% 0.104 -0.9689
B 2069 58.09% 31.5 -0.244 69.31% 0.124 -1.0406
C 2178 57.54% 30.79 -0.574 70.2% 0.171 -1.2255
D 2054 57.41% 30.84 -0.502 68.16% 0.085 -1.0732
E 444 62.9% 31.58 -0.154 64.19% 0.114 -1.1425
F 820 58.52% 31.12 -0.547 65.61% -0.045 -1.271
G 881 60.07% 30.98 -0.505 60.84% -0.048 -1.2609
H 883 59.63% 31.28 -0.41 65.8% 0.053 -1.1684
East 1494 32.04% 47.93 2.12 79.05% 0.318 -0.6184
Northeast 1510 31.23% 47.67 1.971 77.15% 0.064 -0.8053
Northwest 1321 29.34% 48.32 1.491 79.64% 0.135 -0.8103
Southeast 178 60.67% 35.3 0.839 62.92% 0.253 -0.7296
Southwest 136 61.76% 29.87 -2.444 58.82% -0.281 -0.9065
West 1437 30.71% 47.4 1.31 77.17% -0.062 -0.7275

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 89 0.0% 26.61 -4.548 71.91% -2.502 -0.4629
Not Using Events or Tokens 265 55.21% 29.04 -0.984 69.81% -0.039 0.1808
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1057 5.93% 56.81 5.251 96.69% 1.073 0.3672
Start of Game Growth 1159 8.75% 54.96 4.452 95.51% 0.665 0.2061
Unlimited Undo 592 47.52% 36.5 0.75 74.66% 0.079 -0.3238
Using Tokens but Not Events 1006 47.02% 31.12 -0.434 74.75% 0.209 0.1628

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2256 22.34 30.36%
II 4122 30.71 65.62%
III 2907 34.23 84.35%
IV 1396 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.402 Win Model: 0.064
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6828 57.19% 31.31 64.95%
2 2003 59.82% 32.33 68.1%
3 704 64.07% 32.41 62.93%
4 1146 21.15% 50.25 86.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 433
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1759
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1778
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 991
Lose: Invader deck ran out 75
Lose: Adversary condition 797
Win: Sacrifice victory 39
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2424
Lose: Spirit destroyed 147

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)