Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 114 50.89% 30.9 0.03 71.93% -0.415 -0.1318
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 97 71.13% 31.81 1.087 60.82% -0.412 -0.0015
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 73 68.49% 39.66 3.989 60.27% -0.712 0.165
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 63 73.02% 37.68 3.783 50.79% -1.005 0.2405
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 24 91.67% 34.46 2.544 29.17% -1.558 -0.0563
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 48.63 9.208 50.0% -0.748 1.2051
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 41 63.41% 44.15 7.679 46.34% -1.571 0.4716
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 501 50.7% 29.14 -1.025 77.84% -0.058 -0.0161
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 441 58.86% 31.53 0.451 72.34% -0.182 -0.2003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 393 61.99% 39.88 4.764 74.81% -0.058 -0.045
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 223 69.96% 44.42 6.845 66.82% -0.365 -0.0767
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 161 69.57% 45.66 7.867 64.6% -0.592 -0.2246
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 86 79.07% 47.66 8.931 52.33% -0.819 0.0075
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 105 84.62% 39.77 5.102 29.52% -1.851 -0.6125
The Kingdom of England 0 1 444 48.42% 28.29 -1.395 73.65% -0.406 -0.0747
The Kingdom of England 1 3 376 61.33% 32.79 1.244 62.77% -0.681 -0.1675
The Kingdom of England 2 4 270 75.84% 30.23 0.227 48.52% -1.138 -0.17
The Kingdom of England 3 6 204 82.84% 32.19 1.244 34.31% -1.653 -0.0743
The Kingdom of England 4 7 130 75.38% 35.93 2.394 33.85% -1.986 -0.4872
The Kingdom of England 5 9 62 87.1% 34.79 2.349 19.35% -2.305 -0.2319
The Kingdom of England 6 11 172 83.14% 34.4 2.507 15.12% -3.188 -0.9402
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1482 17.36% 51.15 2.569 91.09% -0.136 0.378
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 405 66.67% 30.77 -0.006 53.33% -1.038 -0.1389
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 420 54.89% 34.31 1.679 41.43% -2.209 -0.0667
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 222 63.51% 38.67 3.835 39.19% -2.096 0.1007
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 120 62.5% 38.0 3.933 30.0% -2.528 -0.3701
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 120 50.0% 41.53 4.907 28.33% -2.861 -1.0442
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 201 54.73% 44.92 6.687 29.85% -2.925 -0.8275
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 389 50.64% 29.0 -1.265 77.12% -0.07 0.0153
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 352 63.07% 29.62 -0.635 65.34% -0.51 -0.476
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 369 66.12% 31.47 0.454 62.33% -0.562 -0.3266
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 270 75.56% 38.86 4.273 62.22% -0.492 -0.2051
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 171 75.44% 36.71 3.425 48.54% -1.139 -0.3558
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 66 84.85% 40.47 5.178 51.52% -0.798 0.3686
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 139 80.29% 38.58 3.969 39.57% -1.397 -0.2724
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 85 55.29% 28.48 -1.125 77.65% 0.077 -0.0249
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 66 60.61% 28.11 -1.217 50.0% -1.244 -0.465
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 68 64.71% 39.88 4.308 72.06% -0.115 0.3044
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 49 63.27% 36.55 3.237 44.9% -1.544 -0.2902
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 71.43% 32.64 1.707 28.57% -1.692 -0.5749
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 14 100.0% 25.79 -1.057 0.0% -2.115 -0.1157
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 35.83 2.577 16.67% -1.396 0.4822

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6049 55.41 30.23 -0.881 68.19% 0.139 0.3116
1 Thematic 1857 61.8 34.97 0.87 56.97% -0.17 0.1917
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1359 59.36 31.72 -0.075 70.49% 0.31 0.3612
2 Coastline 172 55.03 31.39 -0.527 75.58% 0.395 0.4024
2 Fragment 46 73.91 26.65 -2.367 60.87% -0.002 0.2545
2 Heart 21 66.67 25.29 -2.626 66.67% -0.107 0.0353
2 Opposite Shores 241 57.63 29.67 -1.026 68.05% 0.004 0.0945
2 Thematic 458 59.08 35.82 -0.115 59.83% -0.355 -0.3968
2 Top to Top 38 57.89 31.13 -0.434 65.79% 0.052 0.0212
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.647 50.0% -0.411 -0.609
3 Other 18 55.56 35.44 1.293 83.33% 0.449 0.6231
3 Round (Default) 661 63.69 31.95 -0.243 64.6% 0.028 -0.046
3 Thematic 106 66.04 35.36 -0.9 55.66% -0.053 -0.4544
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 -6.574 50.0% -0.49 -0.4399
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.826 83.33% 0.748 0.6341
4 Thematic 1119 6.35 57.6 2.416 95.62% -0.131 -1.2154
4 Trapezoid (Default) 342 54.55 32.22 -0.725 64.91% -0.443 -0.5294
5 Other 6 33.33 40.67 1.627 66.67% -0.259 -0.8623
5 Thematic 4 75.0 47.0 4.934 75.0% 0.327 -2.4351

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 638 27.16 -3.74 46.71% -2.495 -0.4221
Aid From Lesser Spirits 542 27.98 -3.204 49.08% -2.341 -0.4232
All Things Weaken 193 27.71 -3.352 47.15% -2.301 -0.131
Back Against the Wall 488 27.64 -3.523 45.29% -2.363 -0.2716
Disintegrating Ecosystem 553 25.03 -4.932 44.12% -2.479 -0.2542
Downward Spiral 857 26.75 -3.733 51.81% -2.247 -0.2241
Erosion of Will 623 27.35 -3.663 47.03% -2.356 -0.1469
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 54 37.0 1.473 88.89% -0.091 0.5954
Memory Fades to Dust 890 26.0 -4.127 48.2% -2.435 -0.2158
Power Corrodes the Spirit 171 24.86 -4.826 44.44% -2.49 -0.4656
Promising Farmlands 623 23.92 -5.254 42.86% -2.64 -0.4255
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 37 32.57 -0.531 86.49% -0.48 -0.0705
Thriving Communities 194 24.16 -5.055 43.81% -2.511 -0.4163
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -3.99 49.12% -2.295 -0.0692
Unnatural Proliferation 202 25.88 -4.059 41.09% -2.645 -0.5586
Untended Land Crumbles 194 25.54 -4.212 41.75% -2.553 -0.4477

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2423 56.63% 31.11 -0.457 69.29% 0.009 -0.7513
B 2344 58.09% 31.37 -0.307 69.11% 0.046 -0.8108
C 2478 57.08% 30.81 -0.587 70.1% 0.079 -1.0096
D 2311 56.71% 30.8 -0.519 68.41% 0.018 -0.8327
E 624 59.12% 31.39 -0.266 65.38% -0.011 -0.9764
F 1015 58.33% 30.9 -0.614 66.11% -0.12 -1.0343
G 1053 59.56% 31.01 -0.546 61.73% -0.145 -1.0502
H 1085 58.99% 31.26 -0.376 65.81% -0.027 -0.9412
East 1843 28.14% 49.45 2.137 81.71% 0.163 -0.4864
Northeast 1876 27.53% 49.11 2.039 80.38% -0.017 -0.616
Northwest 1661 25.44% 49.94 1.625 82.54% 0.003 -0.6664
Southeast 213 59.62% 35.36 0.771 63.85% 0.149 -0.5569
Southwest 169 59.17% 30.98 -2.074 62.13% -0.312 -0.5849
West 1806 27.7% 48.82 1.418 79.9% -0.154 -0.5531

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 103 0.0% 26.92 -4.032 75.73% -2.272 -0.2155
Not Using Events or Tokens 309 52.81% 29.35 -0.872 71.84% -0.016 0.1995
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1367 5.38% 57.17 4.81 96.78% 0.957 0.2701
Start of Game Growth 1477 8.01% 55.56 4.171 95.67% 0.56 0.0895
Unlimited Undo 734 49.13% 35.58 0.622 74.25% 0.106 -0.3141
Using Tokens but Not Events 1153 46.02% 30.92 -0.545 75.8% 0.177 0.1242

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2696 22.35 34.12%
II 4763 30.84 65.99%
III 3419 34.35 84.47%
IV 1639 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.421 Win Model: 0.094
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7919 56.96% 31.35 65.53%
2 2327 59.04% 32.14 68.37%
3 787 63.66% 32.41 63.66%
4 1484 18.35% 51.48 88.21%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 668
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2192
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2216
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1233
Lose: Invader deck ran out 89
Lose: Adversary condition 906
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2768
Lose: Spirit destroyed 164

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)