Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 241 43.93% 25.26 -4.83 56.43% -1.554 -1.1737
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 177 58.19% 27.93 -2.101 51.41% -0.432 -0.155
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 125 64.0% 34.54 0.088 51.2% -0.485 0.2742
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 112 65.18% 30.04 -2.41 37.5% -0.468 0.6519
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 48 75.0% 29.54 1.398 27.08% -0.699 0.6575
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 29 75.86% 29.34 -1.294 20.69% -0.773 0.5222
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 103 51.46% 44.61 -9.286 50.49% -0.673 1.2758
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 524 49.71% 25.74 -2.483 67.56% -0.621 -0.4141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 540 52.78% 28.0 2.187 65.0% 0.441 0.4506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 420 54.42% 36.59 0.125 67.62% -0.301 -0.274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 264 63.64% 40.83 -1.406 63.26% -0.97 -0.6826
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 146 66.44% 41.05 -3.536 56.85% -0.834 -0.5366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 100 70.0% 44.97 3.346 50.0% 0.09 0.6929
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 135 85.71% 35.27 0.901 22.22% -1.167 0.2267
The Kingdom of England 0 1 487 45.79% 26.63 -1.735 67.76% -0.476 -0.1526
The Kingdom of England 1 3 369 56.79% 31.54 3.844 60.16% 0.738 1.0333
The Kingdom of England 2 4 320 67.4% 27.82 -5.377 45.31% -1.621 -0.8974
The Kingdom of England 3 6 187 70.59% 30.29 2.6 33.16% -0.512 0.7234
The Kingdom of England 4 7 143 72.03% 31.48 -0.563 27.97% -1.117 0.064
The Kingdom of England 5 9 71 84.51% 33.45 -2.875 19.72% -0.969 0.6053
The Kingdom of England 6 11 175 86.29% 31.26 -0.112 10.86% -0.387 1.5541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1666 16.41% 50.5 5.081 89.32% 0.871 1.3528
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 470 59.57% 27.3 0.522 48.51% -0.26 0.5765
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 392 51.02% 33.39 2.305 41.07% -1.477 -0.4464
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 214 60.75% 36.1 -0.028 36.92% -0.69 0.7151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 132 59.09% 36.08 -3.131 28.03% -1.532 -0.1112
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 112 52.68% 42.08 12.182 31.25% -0.157 0.6903
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 228 52.63% 41.73 2.368 26.75% -1.105 0.2818
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 81 28.4% 8.79 -4.536 17.28% -0.986 -0.7006
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 60 33.33% 17.08 -3.956 25.0% -1.076 -0.5959
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 45 28.89% 11.47 -1.448 20.0% -0.154 0.1235
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 22 40.91% 32.59 0.205 50.0% -0.588 -0.1762
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 17 58.82% 25.0 -6.012 17.65% -0.159 0.7272
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 17 58.82% 26.71 7.64 35.29% 0.23 1.039
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 45.45% 32.45 -8.406 36.36% -0.934 0.0865
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 447 46.09% 25.62 -0.711 68.01% 0.081 0.2305
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 422 53.32% 28.8 -2.825 66.11% -0.734 -0.6067
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 377 61.8% 28.39 0.648 54.64% -0.408 -0.2099
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 269 72.49% 35.74 -3.095 56.13% -0.653 -0.2357
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 170 72.35% 34.4 -4.546 46.47% -0.625 0.0792
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 69 81.16% 33.62 -2.658 39.13% -0.411 0.5235
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 171 72.19% 34.22 -5.746 30.99% -1.44 -0.4492
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 186 44.09% 23.66 -3.889 61.29% -0.661 -0.5618
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 160 52.5% 26.01 -1.662 49.38% -0.463 0.4852
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 141 56.03% 31.24 -1.686 55.32% -0.386 -0.105
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 83 53.01% 31.18 -3.593 38.55% -0.813 0.2972
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 36 58.33% 24.61 -2.788 22.22% -0.575 0.4339
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 28 82.14% 21.79 -10.973 3.57% -0.538 1.1285
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 66.67% 23.08 -6.972 8.33% -0.613 1.196

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7254 50.19 28.25 63.1% 0.148 0.3393 0.28
1 Thematic 2039 57.26 31.72 52.67% -0.427 0.2179 -0.092
2 Archipelago 8 75.0 18.13 12.5% -0.759 -0.3275 -0.368
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1517 52.58 29.25 64.27% -0.213 -0.2169 0.06
2 Coastline 198 49.74 28.15 68.18% 0.557 0.6126 -0.345
2 Fragment 52 68.63 25.96 55.77% 0.164
2 Heart 28 71.43 29.57 78.57% 0.4 0.3612 0.246
2 Opposite Shores 255 51.79 27.23 71.37% 0.99 1.0038 -0.131
2 Thematic 511 51.57 31.36 54.4% 0.059 0.2564 -0.329
2 Top to Top 55 54.55 29.18 63.64% 0.336 0.238 0.307
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 18 61.11 33.11 77.78% 0.315 -0.0775
3 Round (Default) 713 59.1 29.55 60.45% 0.122 -0.2137 0.577
3 Sunrise 3 100.0 25.33 100.0%
3 Thematic 107 58.88 30.58 46.73% -0.366 -0.65 -0.689
4 Archipelago 4 75.0 22.75 25.0% -0.456 -0.6135 -0.138
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Leaf 2 100.0 14.5 0.0% -0.153 -0.3014
4 Other 7 57.14 42.14 71.43% -0.056
4 Thematic 1227 4.81 57.8 95.84% 0.438 0.3585 -0.075
4 Trapezoid (Default) 329 52.6 29.37 59.57% 0.199 0.0421 -0.169
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.033
5 Other 15 26.67 30.07 53.33% -0.153 -1.2276 -0.226
5 Thematic 8 50.0 30.63 37.5% -0.102 -0.1083 0.252
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.073
6 Other 3 0.0 20.33 66.67% 0.162 -0.0414
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.182 -0.0824
6 Thematic 15 33.33 22.8 53.33% -0.366 0.2831
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 20.0 17.8 40.0% -0.556 -0.891

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 599 26.66 45.08% -0.05 0.0791 -0.151
Aid From Lesser Spirits 543 27.2 47.51% 0.16 0.0415 -0.412
All Things Weaken 304 26.6 45.39% 0.641 0.9486 -1.368
Attenuated Essence 26 20.23 46.15% -0.043 -0.0112
Back Against the Wall 497 28.17 45.27% 0.392 0.4217 -0.435
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 26 20.58 42.31% -0.581 -0.3944 0.298
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 25.0 36.36% 0.147 0.2177 0.113
Disintegrating Ecosystem 559 24.31 44.72% -0.768 -0.3918 -0.364
Downward Spiral 776 26.91 50.77% -0.66 -0.494 0.079
Erosion of Will 581 26.87 44.58% 0.371 0.5855 -0.363
Intensifying Exploitation 21 21.71 38.1% 0.344 0.5856 -0.45
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 103 37.44 88.35% 0.306 -0.2752 0.763
Memory Fades to Dust 820 26.5 48.54% -0.123 0.1696 -0.466
Power Corrodes the Spirit 268 24.38 43.28% 0.37 0.5306 -0.837
Promising Farmlands 579 23.88 43.01% 0.117 0.4129 -0.87
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 25.5 44.44% -0.696 -0.6079 -0.375
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 23.04 52.0% 0.428 0.8212 0.483
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 71 33.59 85.92% 0.867 0.1558 0.385
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 283 24.63 43.11% 0.824 1.1243 0.082
Thriving Crops 4 16.25 50.0% -0.116 -0.2178
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.58
Unnatural Proliferation 323 26.27 43.96% 0.233 0.402 -0.359
Untended Land Crumbles 307 25.39 44.3% -0.562 -0.3038 -0.1

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2413 52.09% 29.1 64.77% -0.026 1.1163 -0.118
B 2199 53.16% 28.48 63.03% -0.145 0.9102 -0.526
C 2392 50.3% 28.41 64.97% -0.381 0.5073 -0.396
D 2211 51.39% 28.83 64.31% -0.316 0.7376 -0.084
E 1157 50.57% 27.64 59.12% -0.656 0.248 0.331
F 1684 52.57% 27.9 60.1% -0.495 0.5091 -0.315
G 1608 55.83% 29.03 58.89% 0.121 1.0893 -0.036
H 1651 52.42% 29.03 62.99% 0.111 1.104 -0.417
East 2893 33.56% 43.27 71.41% 0.017 1.0054 -0.031
Northeast 2068 25.36% 47.84 78.68% 0.103 1.0527 -0.162
Northwest 1801 22.46% 48.71 80.23% -0.461 0.58 -0.379
Southeast 379 49.08% 29.03 52.24% -0.418 0.4999 -0.718
Southwest 306 49.67% 25.34 51.31% -1.509 -0.0523 0.23
West 2599 32.54% 43.1 72.1% -0.088 1.0191 -0.544

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 89 0.0% 27.36 78.65% -0.015
Not Using Events or Tokens 289 45.39% 28.72 73.7% 0.291 0.7853 0.33
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1502 4.53% 57.15 96.54% 1.178 0.5556 0.361
Start of Game Growth 1646 7.33% 55.04 94.41% 0.986 0.5737 -0.399
Unlimited Undo 999 40.36% 30.6 65.37% -0.22 -0.3154 0.261
Using Tokens but Not Events 1295 40.89% 29.1 72.28% -0.177 -0.1017 -1.879

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3944 16.77 26.19%
II 4926 30.59 65.29%
III 3742 34.74 85.03%
IV 1787 38.3 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.563 Win Model: 0.234
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9420 51.78% 28.84 60.23%
2 2526 52.63% 29.86 65.08%
3 831 59.49% 29.96 59.81%
4 1579 15.67% 51.54 87.71%
5 10 20.0% 15.9 20.0%
6 33 24.24% 20.3 48.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1032
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3160
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3207
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1776
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1158
Lose: Invader deck ran out 85
Lose: Adversary condition 981
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2819
Lose: Spirit destroyed 138

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)