Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 17 17.65% 7.88 -4.523 11.76% -1.209 -0.9033
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 14 28.57% 13.93 -0.192 21.43% 0.003 -0.0746
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 10 10.0% 1.8 -4.128 0.0% -0.761 -0.6149
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 6 66.67% 23.0 0.329 33.33% -0.461 -0.4024
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 8 62.5% 15.5 1.497 0.0% -0.439 -0.0592
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 33.33% 7.67 -1.986 0.0% -0.536 0.3201
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 335 38.14% 21.88 0.092 48.66% -0.165 0.2325
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 246 50.0% 25.76 0.66 48.37% -0.027 0.3036
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 150 58.67% 30.99 -5.897 46.0% -1.324 -0.8024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 154 56.49% 25.44 -1.651 31.82% -0.66 0.3621
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 64 70.31% 27.61 -1.282 26.56% -0.247 1.1931
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 64.1% 24.9 -2.689 17.95% -0.19 1.509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 109 51.38% 42.38 -6.539 47.71% -0.24 1.5311
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 613 47.55% 24.09 -0.425 63.13% 0.037 0.2413
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 674 47.33% 25.88 -1.691 59.94% -0.213 -0.1765
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 511 51.96% 33.59 1.464 62.43% 0.263 0.2861
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 329 57.75% 37.26 -0.633 57.45% -0.105 0.1161
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 170 65.88% 38.93 0.485 53.53% -0.122 0.1846
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 116 68.97% 43.04 -0.657 47.41% -0.557 -0.1509
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 149 81.63% 33.89 -6.074 22.15% -0.544 0.7278
The Kingdom of England 0 1 602 42.19% 24.45 2.323 62.29% 0.781 1.1206
The Kingdom of England 1 3 450 53.45% 29.63 4.682 56.44% 0.652 0.9286
The Kingdom of England 2 4 416 62.41% 24.57 -0.07 39.9% -0.368 0.1638
The Kingdom of England 3 6 232 64.22% 27.25 -1.233 29.74% -0.851 0.2181
The Kingdom of England 4 7 159 70.44% 29.9 -2.98 27.67% -0.283 0.7047
The Kingdom of England 5 9 90 74.44% 28.99 3.487 17.78% -0.419 1.1948
The Kingdom of England 6 11 197 80.51% 28.67 -5.123 10.15% -0.466 1.4673
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2035 15.54% 49.24 4.859 86.78% 0.749 1.1073
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 549 57.74% 25.91 3.858 46.45% 0.525 1.2415
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 454 49.56% 31.44 -0.306 38.11% -0.926 0.2324
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 231 60.17% 35.71 6.178 36.8% -0.248 1.032
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 148 56.08% 34.51 -6.613 27.7% -0.495 0.8196
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 127 52.76% 41.33 8.821 32.28% 0.129 1.4151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 258 51.55% 38.0 -3.337 24.03% -1.052 0.3328
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 148 22.97% 10.64 0.427 25.0% 0.375 0.6433
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 111 35.14% 17.41 -2.084 24.32% -0.466 -0.0106
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 103 33.01% 15.02 0.406 25.24% -0.391 0.006
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 58 41.38% 25.31 -0.437 32.76% -0.458 -0.4685
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 32 62.5% 20.5 3.94 15.63% -0.09 0.4555
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 25 56.0% 25.72 26.941 32.0% 0.327 0.836
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 30 33.33% 15.23 -5.265 16.67% -0.666 0.3842
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 538 43.87% 23.87 -5.767 62.64% -1.029 -0.7394
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 539 48.05% 25.37 -0.577 57.7% 0.047 0.0949
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 480 55.21% 25.38 -3.948 48.75% -1.058 -0.8287
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 299 71.24% 33.48 -4.641 51.51% -1.118 -0.8313
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 208 67.79% 30.2 3.91 40.38% 0.155 0.9559
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 82 76.83% 30.94 0.181 36.59% -0.334 0.7491
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 209 66.18% 30.08 -6.349 27.75% -0.735 0.1997
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 281 36.3% 19.76 0.214 51.25% 0.293 0.4749
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 227 47.14% 21.61 -0.294 40.53% -0.05 0.7837
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 187 47.59% 26.92 -1.5 47.06% -0.459 -0.2395
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 112 46.43% 26.45 -1.305 33.04% -0.44 0.643
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 39 53.85% 22.72 -7.629 20.51% -0.3 0.6833
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 35 74.29% 19.6 -3.14 2.86% -0.633 0.8889
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 27 37.04% 10.26 -7.337 3.7% -1.521 0.0724

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8758 47.41 26.19 58.71% -0.047 0.2407 0.328
1 Thematic 2423 53.22 29.23 48.99% 0.336 0.9931 -0.02
2 Archipelago 14 85.71 26.36 35.71% 0.414 1.1182 -0.257
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1880 48.92 26.44 58.09% -0.527 -0.4178 -0.03
2 Coastline 246 47.93 27.02 65.85% 0.842 0.7509 -0.499
2 Fragment 64 66.67 26.2 54.69% -0.235 -0.4943 0.116
2 Heart 30 70.0 29.57 76.67% 0.556 0.2304 0.327
2 Opposite Shores 313 51.13 25.73 67.73% 0.443 0.5202 0.173
2 Thematic 645 46.03 28.06 48.99% -0.372 0.1589 -0.268
2 Top to Top 64 51.56 28.81 64.06% -0.748 -0.8213 0.281
3 Archipelago 7 57.14 27.14 57.14% -0.07
3 Coastline 9 66.67 23.78 44.44% 0.106 -0.5105
3 Other 23 52.17 31.22 73.91%
3 Round (Default) 919 55.25 26.02 53.32% -0.241 -0.3321 0.486
3 Sunrise 5 100.0 29.2 80.0%
3 Thematic 148 52.03 27.6 43.24% -0.699 -0.662 -0.481
4 Archipelago 6 50.0 15.17 16.67% -0.284 -0.6633 -0.15
4 Coastline 5 80.0 16.0 40.0% -0.136
4 Leaf 2 100.0 14.5 0.0%
4 Other 9 55.56 43.11 77.78% 0.409 -0.3102 -0.131
4 Snake 1 0.0 41.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1481 4.53 57.5 95.54% 1.261 1.359 -0.176
4 Trapezoid (Default) 400 50.51 26.74 54.0% 0.232 0.1511 -0.036
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.025
5 Other 24 20.83 19.58 33.33% -0.128 -0.7175 -0.19
5 Thematic 10 40.0 24.5 30.0% 0.279
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 15.0 0.0% -0.466 -1.3769
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.012
6 Other 9 33.33 15.44 55.56% 0.187 0.0644
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 29 24.14 17.55 41.38% -0.495 -0.0849 -0.112
6 Two Centers (Default) 33 15.15 11.15 27.27% -0.19 0.3482 -0.259
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 667 26.14 43.93% -0.184 -0.0009 0.151
Aid From Lesser Spirits 592 27.32 47.8% 0.623 0.5841 -0.144
All Things Weaken 348 26.04 45.11% 0.147 0.4283 -1.296
Attenuated Essence 58 24.12 48.28% 0.138 0.154 -0.483
Back Against the Wall 552 27.86 45.29% 0.122 0.158 -0.072
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 52 20.81 46.15% 0.276 0.4624 0.077
Burn Brightest Before the End 38 26.71 47.37% 0.402 0.4426 0.958
Disintegrating Ecosystem 633 24.26 45.18% 0.87 1.1292 0.128
Downward Spiral 871 26.44 50.52% 0.462 0.5788 0.56
Erosion of Will 656 26.16 44.05% 0.33 0.5695 -0.14
Intensifying Exploitation 56 20.13 32.14% -0.232 0.004 -0.718
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 124 35.76 82.26% -0.594 -1.2371 0.474
Memory Fades to Dust 902 25.86 47.12% 0.801 1.0448 -0.154
Power Corrodes the Spirit 315 24.46 42.86% 0.4 0.6228 -0.612
Promising Farmlands 645 23.06 41.71% -0.273 -0.0336 -0.665
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 21.81 43.75% 0.06 0.1403 -0.312
Slow Dissolution of Will 57 20.18 42.11% -0.265 0.0772 1.091
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 85 32.53 82.35% 0.642 -0.0494 0.733
The Border of Life and Death 8 16.25 37.5% 0.321 -0.2205 -0.281
Thriving Communities 332 24.26 44.28% -0.337 -0.1093 0.236
Thriving Crops 13 31.38 76.92%
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.78
Unnatural Proliferation 367 26.48 44.96% 0.92 1.1086 -0.034
Untended Land Crumbles 353 24.7 42.21% 0.3 0.5339 0.067

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2995 48.84% 26.78 59.9% -0.264 0.7128 -0.148
B 2709 50.93% 26.11 57.84% -0.183 0.6967 -0.616
C 2937 48.3% 25.91 59.07% 0.101 0.8022 -0.563
D 2673 48.77% 26.67 59.56% -0.191 0.7286 -0.254
E 1572 45.93% 24.47 53.12% 0.176 0.9425 -0.232
F 2095 48.63% 25.26 54.65% -0.094 0.7461 -0.498
G 2001 51.06% 26.31 53.82% 0.368 1.181 -0.199
H 2019 49.95% 26.27 56.66% -0.898 -0.0827 -0.391
East 3513 30.83% 41.47 68.89% 0.914 1.6701 0.071
Northeast 2505 23.02% 46.22 76.33% -1.376 -0.6582 -0.218
Northwest 2168 20.31% 47.75 78.92% -0.208 0.6086 -0.503
Southeast 500 43.8% 26.85 49.2% -0.162 0.6401 -0.162
Southwest 444 41.89% 21.76 44.82% -0.291 0.9368 -0.366
West 3175 29.85% 41.25 69.32% -0.044 0.8921 -0.606

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 95 0.0% 26.22 75.79% 0.202 0.9168 -0.059
Not Using Events or Tokens 340 42.94% 26.16 67.35% -0.678 -0.3019 0.149
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1784 4.21% 56.42 95.24% 0.652 0.0061 0.457
Start of Game Growth 1951 6.75% 54.14 92.67% 0.114 -0.4177 -0.381
Unlimited Undo 1248 36.0% 26.57 57.05% -0.689 -0.7736 0.069
Using Tokens but Not Events 1527 38.43% 27.11 67.58% 0.086 0.0803 -1.979

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5723 13.54 21.58%
II 5612 30.15 64.7%
III 4218 34.83 85.28%
IV 2017 38.66 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.375 Win Model: -0.053
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 11418 48.46% 26.55 55.73%
2 3070 49.98% 27.84 60.88%
3 1082 55.25% 26.55 53.05%
4 1907 14.93% 50.72 86.31%
5 22 13.64% 8.09 9.09%
6 71 22.54% 14.52 36.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1234
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3572
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3621
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2003
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2624
Lose: Invader deck ran out 100
Lose: Adversary condition 1082
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3133
Lose: Spirit destroyed 151

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-26 04:33:17 (Pacific Time)