Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 195 49.74% 29.23 -2.129 65.64% -0.26 0.0035
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 146 64.38% 30.23 -0.564 55.48% -0.385 -0.0386
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 111 67.57% 37.13 -2.928 55.86% -0.754 0.0757
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 99 70.71% 32.03 -3.962 39.39% -1.133 -0.1413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 37 81.08% 34.54 2.631 32.43% -0.129 1.1905
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 21 80.95% 32.52 0.503 23.81% -0.537 1.1251
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 98 53.06% 46.18 0.0 52.04%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 455 52.86% 27.93 -1.981 73.85% -0.359 -0.2736
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 441 57.6% 31.0 -1.82 71.66% -0.636 -0.7309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 371 57.03% 39.55 -2.656 73.32% -1.272 -1.2834
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 207 66.18% 42.58 -0.674 64.25% -0.748 -0.5504
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 135 69.63% 44.08 -2.817 61.48% -0.94 -0.7375
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 90 73.33% 47.17 -9.323 52.22% -0.379 0.1823
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 122 90.0% 37.32 -5.675 23.77% -0.255 1.0833
The Kingdom of England 0 1 431 48.96% 28.45 0.091 72.85% 0.285 0.5508
The Kingdom of England 1 3 326 60.0% 32.29 1.532 61.04% 0.088 0.2719
The Kingdom of England 2 4 290 71.28% 29.76 -1.576 48.97% -0.67 0.0671
The Kingdom of England 3 6 168 75.6% 31.87 -0.029 34.52% -0.842 0.297
The Kingdom of England 4 7 122 73.77% 33.84 -3.331 31.15% -0.775 0.271
The Kingdom of England 5 9 60 85.0% 36.63 -2.142 23.33% -0.536 1.1039
The Kingdom of England 6 11 167 87.43% 32.03 -2.241 11.38% -0.631 1.4107
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1547 16.63% 51.28 3.306 90.5% 0.074 0.4761
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 401 63.09% 29.87 -1.645 53.37% -0.698 0.2571
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 353 52.69% 34.85 6.008 43.06% -0.276 0.7974
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 197 61.93% 37.69 -0.624 38.07% -0.49 0.7979
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 118 61.86% 38.61 9.097 30.51% -0.189 1.2126
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 101 52.48% 43.01 10.884 31.68% -0.179 0.7498
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 208 51.44% 43.26 -2.377 28.37% -1.104 0.24
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 27 40.74% 15.67 -5.797 29.63% -1.269 -1.2519
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 16 37.5% 28.0 -2.949 43.75% -1.159 -0.729
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 16 31.25% 12.0 -5.08 18.75% -0.846 -0.4044
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 13 46.15% 40.23 2.668 61.54% -0.152 0.2332
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 11 72.73% 34.18 -6.156 27.27% -0.708 -0.089
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 71.43% 33.29 -9.955 42.86% -0.883 -0.0991
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 46.5 10.055 50.0% 0.118 1.3939
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 385 49.35% 27.67 -2.796 74.03% -0.337 -0.1566
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 368 56.52% 30.74 1.689 70.65% 0.206 0.2324
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 324 64.2% 30.53 3.426 59.88% 0.6 0.823
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 249 73.9% 37.08 -1.499 58.23% -0.795 -0.3676
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 155 75.48% 36.37 0.91 49.03% -0.004 0.6041
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 58 84.48% 37.69 5.397 44.83% 0.047 1.0566
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 143 76.6% 36.36 -10.672 32.87% -0.821 0.0662
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 135 52.59% 27.58 -2.7 71.85% -0.377 -0.2555
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 126 58.73% 29.85 3.333 56.35% 0.299 0.9392
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 118 61.02% 35.12 -0.44 61.86% -0.083 0.3432
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 68 61.76% 35.07 -4.495 42.65% -1.248 -0.1338
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 71.43% 30.71 1.376 28.57% 0.142 1.0462
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 88.89% 25.22 -8.685 5.56% -0.289 1.2065
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 88.89% 30.78 -8.337 11.11% -0.907 0.9331

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6293 52.99 30.1 67.28% 0.16 0.2139 0.283
1 Thematic 1806 60.44 34.23 56.48% 0.183 0.6604 -0.134
2 Archipelago 3 66.67 13.67 33.33% -0.06 0.0438
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1324 56.61 31.05 67.98% 0.393 0.4748 0.059
2 Coastline 161 53.16 29.88 72.67% -0.467 -0.6209 -0.104
2 Fragment 46 73.91 25.57 54.35% -0.234 -0.4831 0.168
2 Heart 24 75.0 28.25 75.0% 0.623 0.336 0.183
2 Opposite Shores 207 52.71 29.54 76.33% 1.003 1.0257 -0.133
2 Thematic 431 53.95 34.09 59.63% -0.587 -0.1831 -0.477
2 Top to Top 43 53.49 29.58 67.44% -0.377 -0.5429 0.235
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 16 56.25 35.5 81.25%
3 Round (Default) 609 63.31 31.44 64.86% 0.691 0.5759 0.495
3 Sunrise 2 100.0 25.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 97 64.95 32.75 49.48% -0.482 -0.4016 -0.725
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 33.5 50.0% 0.474 -0.2008 -0.21
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Other 6 66.67 49.17 83.33% 0.439 -0.6452 -0.048
4 Thematic 1158 4.84 58.11 96.29% 0.356 0.0941 0.071
4 Trapezoid (Default) 290 51.74 30.77 62.07% -0.88 -0.9624 -0.282
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.053
5 Other 12 33.33 34.33 58.33% -0.369 -0.6536 -0.213
5 Thematic 7 57.14 35.0 42.86% -0.062 -0.1553 0.212
6 Coastline 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.292 -1.0933 -0.11
6 Other 1 0.0 26.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 13 30.77 26.31 61.54% -0.223 0.1972
6 Two Centers (Default) 9 33.33 24.22 55.56% -0.684 -0.5803

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 560 26.95 45.89% 0.699 0.941 -0.237
Aid From Lesser Spirits 497 27.35 47.69% -0.279 -0.3567 -0.618
All Things Weaken 272 26.76 45.22% 0.673 1.0657 -1.415
Attenuated Essence 7 20.14 28.57% -0.289 -0.1821
Back Against the Wall 461 28.09 45.12% 0.09 0.1475 -0.513
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 32.67 50.0% 0.54 0.7415 0.162
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 31.0 50.0% -0.539 -0.3287 0.292
Disintegrating Ecosystem 506 24.94 46.64% -0.271 0.1523 -0.496
Downward Spiral 731 27.28 51.85% 0.421 0.6565 -0.193
Erosion of Will 547 27.21 45.7% 0.591 0.9006 -0.64
Intensifying Exploitation 6 17.17 33.33% -0.089 0.1984
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 92 38.16 89.13% -0.119 -0.6126 0.659
Memory Fades to Dust 761 26.94 49.15% 0.254 0.5902 -0.649
Power Corrodes the Spirit 245 24.72 44.08% 0.75 0.9709 -0.983
Promising Farmlands 539 24.25 43.41% -0.336 0.1176 -1.015
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 25.09 54.55% 0.002 0.0532 -0.387
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 21.75 62.5% 0.211 0.6102
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 34.73 89.06% 0.05
Thriving Communities 259 24.41 42.86% -0.235 0.1276 -0.361
Thriving Crops 2 19.5 50.0% -0.075 -0.273
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.404
Unnatural Proliferation 302 26.56 44.04% 0.464 0.6787 -0.434
Untended Land Crumbles 281 25.56 44.84% 0.202 0.4842 -0.237

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2060 55.0% 30.8 68.93% 0.179 0.9196 -0.165
B 1909 55.93% 30.23 66.89% -0.152 0.5734 -0.626
C 2047 53.55% 30.4 69.57% -0.149 0.4332 -0.398
D 1916 54.01% 30.6 68.27% -0.649 0.0622 -0.137
E 935 55.35% 30.72 66.1% -0.5 0.0659 0.367
F 1434 55.95% 30.19 64.64% -0.526 0.1448 -0.28
G 1423 57.55% 30.39 61.42% -0.513 0.1388 -0.101
H 1453 54.98% 30.54 66.07% -0.888 -0.3173 -0.521
East 2627 34.45% 45.15 74.31% -0.062 0.4765 -0.145
Northeast 1913 25.33% 49.07 80.66% -0.603 0.032 -0.308
Northwest 1655 22.32% 50.29 82.84% -0.555 0.2539 -0.445
Southeast 310 55.81% 32.95 58.71% -0.773 -0.0677 -0.698
Southwest 242 56.2% 29.9 61.16% -0.718 0.2721 0.625
West 2355 33.23% 45.27 75.71% 0.053 0.9572 -0.648

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 86 0.0% 27.52 77.91% -0.255 0.5213 -0.018
Not Using Events or Tokens 257 48.22% 29.75 74.71% -0.013 0.3659 0.291
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1399 4.5% 57.67 97.21% 0.182 -0.4359 0.354
Start of Game Growth 1524 7.46% 55.86 95.54% 1.379 1.0306 -0.445
Unlimited Undo 790 44.3% 33.4 72.28% -0.551 -0.5575 0.487
Using Tokens but Not Events 1139 42.1% 31.17 77.09% 0.138 0.128 -1.903

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2933 20.4 33.04%
II 4521 31.01 65.98%
III 3464 34.76 84.9%
IV 1656 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.383 Win Model: 0.327
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8174 54.78% 30.94 64.51%
2 2185 55.64% 31.54 68.47%
3 717 63.25% 31.81 63.74%
4 1470 14.93% 52.36 88.98%
5 6 33.33% 20.0 16.67%
6 22 31.82% 26.64 63.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 968
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2919
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2976
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1645
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 292
Lose: Invader deck ran out 83
Lose: Adversary condition 912
Win: Sacrifice victory 41
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2607
Lose: Spirit destroyed 131

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)