Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 159 50.96% 32.05 1.779 72.33% 0.205 0.7559
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 121 71.07% 32.12 -4.255 58.68% -0.682 0.1955
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 90 68.89% 40.01 2.302 62.22% -0.13 0.9891
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 88 73.86% 34.8 10.193 43.18% 0.323 1.8536
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 87.1% 36.68 16.139 32.26% 0.029 1.6159
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 81.82% 41.45 -5.106 36.36% -0.555 1.0073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 97 52.58% 45.94 0.0 51.55%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 394 52.67% 28.59 -1.322 75.38% -0.016 0.2282
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 392 57.14% 31.92 1.881 74.23% 0.227 0.1003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 338 57.27% 40.72 8.877 76.33% 0.549 0.6645
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 184 68.48% 44.66 10.417 67.93% 0.756 1.13
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 120 73.33% 44.98 0.0 62.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 85 75.29% 47.66 15.474 51.76% 0.212 1.1975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 118 89.74% 37.66 6.333 23.73% -0.369 1.2058
The Kingdom of England 0 1 394 50.0% 29.05 0.682 74.87% -0.172 0.3439
The Kingdom of England 1 3 288 62.02% 32.98 -0.448 63.19% -0.288 0.3218
The Kingdom of England 2 4 258 74.71% 30.51 -1.837 49.61% -1.011 0.1158
The Kingdom of England 3 6 147 76.19% 33.24 -0.605 36.73% -1.495 0.2483
The Kingdom of England 4 7 111 77.48% 34.66 -3.726 30.63% -0.544 1.0346
The Kingdom of England 5 9 57 87.72% 36.72 -3.653 22.81% -0.835 0.9029
The Kingdom of England 6 11 163 87.73% 32.02 -2.875 11.04% -0.342 1.957
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1338 17.22% 50.96 1.68 90.51% 0.122 1.0242
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 348 65.8% 31.1 1.275 54.89% -0.036 0.8541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 332 53.61% 34.8 10.354 42.77% 0.369 2.7714
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 187 62.57% 37.57 -5.047 37.43% -0.659 1.7248
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 110 60.91% 37.89 -3.486 29.09% -0.993 1.4831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 94 51.06% 43.37 -1.86 31.91% -1.297 0.7812
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 184 52.72% 44.21 11.63 28.26% -0.658 1.7093
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 40.0% 25.4 -2.588 60.0% -0.147 -0.2712
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 36.0 4.001 100.0% 0.205 1.0497
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 18.0 -5.396 0.0% -0.457 0.3717
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4 50.0% 57.25 13.995 100.0% 0.549 1.4191
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 39.0 5.584 50.0% -0.117 1.118
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 26.0 -2.595 0.0% -0.527 0.904
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 26.0 -5.915 0.0% -0.489 1.2098
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 347 51.59% 28.73 1.618 76.95% 0.475 0.6417
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 321 57.32% 31.05 3.916 71.03% 1.158 0.935
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 286 65.38% 30.91 -3.962 60.14% -0.847 -0.3942
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 233 75.97% 38.24 0.517 60.09% -0.585 -0.2751
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 146 75.34% 37.11 14.131 50.0% 0.343 1.295
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 49 83.67% 38.78 15.707 48.98% 0.204 1.1853
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 134 79.55% 37.71 16.18 33.58% 0.103 1.2952
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 118 52.54% 29.3 3.028 77.97% 0.622 0.5652
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 103 62.14% 30.51 4.312 56.31% 0.357 1.131
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 96 65.63% 38.42 4.098 67.71% 0.134 0.845
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 59 64.41% 37.78 13.97 47.46% 0.474 1.8123
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 23 78.26% 33.96 6.691 30.43% -0.149 1.2365
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 100.0% 28.38 0.0 6.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 35.0 0.0 14.29%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5545 54.21 30.91 68.69% 0.292 1.3084 0.547
1 Thematic 1681 61.19 34.91 57.29% -0.076 1.0965 0.011
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 20.5 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1176 58.41 31.88 69.9% 0.367 1.1181 0.373
2 Coastline 148 52.41 30.2 73.65% 0.563 1.1656 -0.79
2 Fragment 38 76.32 26.21 55.26% 0.221
2 Heart 20 70.0 27.35 75.0% 0.045 0.5831 -0.055
2 Opposite Shores 181 53.11 29.67 75.69% 0.329 1.321 -0.208
2 Thematic 366 57.53 36.01 61.75% -0.911 -0.2125 -0.451
2 Top to Top 35 51.43 30.89 68.57% -0.449 0.0614 0.323
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 50.0%
3 Other 16 56.25 35.5 81.25%
3 Round (Default) 550 64.84 32.01 65.64% -0.394 0.201 0.735
3 Sunrise 2 100.0 25.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 88 68.18 34.67 53.41% 0.231 0.193 -0.726
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 50.0%
4 Other 6 66.67 49.17 83.33% -0.035
4 Thematic 985 5.49 57.9 95.94% 0.456 0.9856 0.181
4 Trapezoid (Default) 256 53.33 31.29 62.5% 0.138 0.1113 -0.461
5 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 0.0% -0.044
5 Other 10 40.0 41.2 70.0% -0.327 -0.1586 -0.094
5 Thematic 6 66.67 40.83 50.0% 0.456
6 Thematic 10 40.0 28.5 70.0% -0.203 -0.4819
6 Two Centers (Default) 5 60.0 36.8 80.0% -0.126 -0.2197

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 518 27.36 46.72% -1.491 0.4115 -0.263
Aid From Lesser Spirits 461 27.41 47.51% -0.366 1.3643 -0.651
All Things Weaken 245 27.11 46.94% -0.96 1.0259 -1.441
Back Against the Wall 426 28.23 45.31% -1.13 0.6867 -0.608
Disintegrating Ecosystem 462 25.39 46.97% -0.965 1.0849 -0.544
Downward Spiral 678 27.53 51.62% -0.42 1.5725 -0.256
Erosion of Will 508 27.17 44.49% -0.824 1.2589 -0.713
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 78 37.86 91.03% 0.703 1.1436 1.247
Memory Fades to Dust 705 26.96 48.79% -1.53 0.5546 -0.882
Power Corrodes the Spirit 214 25.18 44.39% -0.301 1.6369 -1.163
Promising Farmlands 501 24.21 42.32% -0.714 1.3324 -1.144
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 59 33.22 88.14% 0.601 1.0254 -0.003
Thriving Communities 233 24.3 42.92% -0.934 1.0497 -0.754
Tipping Point 168 28.04 46.43% 0.332
Unnatural Proliferation 260 26.29 43.85% -0.818 1.1463 -0.212
Untended Land Crumbles 251 25.42 45.02% -1.535 0.4578 -0.466

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1811 56.08% 31.3 69.85% -0.587 0.2102 0.001
B 1692 57.88% 30.86 67.85% -0.111 0.6328 -0.412
C 1792 54.9% 31.2 71.15% 0.34 0.9082 -0.178
D 1700 55.09% 31.53 70.06% -0.271 0.5248 0.022
E 798 56.98% 31.67 68.05% -0.714 -0.0669 0.604
F 1280 58.17% 31.09 66.17% 0.037 0.761 -0.159
G 1258 59.39% 31.34 62.56% -0.264 0.4675 0.069
H 1310 56.11% 31.5 67.63% 0.641 1.3532 -0.373
East 2303 36.43% 45.5 74.51% 0.275 1.0435 0.171
Northeast 1666 27.46% 49.2 80.61% -0.222 0.638 0.021
Northwest 1437 24.67% 50.26 82.6% -0.404 0.6723 -0.151
Southeast 268 58.21% 34.81 62.31% -0.36 0.3465 -0.223
Southwest 215 60.0% 31.23 63.26% -0.191 0.9348 0.787
West 2078 35.65% 45.19 75.41% 0.302 1.2561 -0.434

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 85 0.0% 27.85 78.82%
Not Using Events or Tokens 232 50.88% 30.29 73.71% -0.349 -0.1737 0.246
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1214 4.87% 57.47 97.12% 0.621 0.4791 -0.167
Start of Game Growth 1329 8.12% 55.61 95.49% 0.623 -0.1373 -0.766
Unlimited Undo 691 47.52% 35.02 75.11% -0.167 -0.7707 0.52
Using Tokens but Not Events 1020 42.17% 31.87 78.82% 0.602 0.4451 -1.852

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2385 22.56 34.47%
II 4098 30.98 65.57%
III 3153 34.53 84.87%
IV 1501 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.228 Win Model: 0.169
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7263 55.99% 31.84 65.9%
2 1937 57.26% 32.19 69.54%
3 657 64.78% 32.43 64.38%
4 1262 16.19% 52.14 88.59%
5 3 66.67% 40.0 33.33%
6 15 46.67% 31.27 73.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 821
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2658
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2680
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1492
Lose: Invader deck ran out 79
Lose: Adversary condition 855
Win: Sacrifice victory 35
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2394
Lose: Spirit destroyed 123

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)