Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 89 54.02% 30.24 -0.191 70.79% -0.359 -0.0758
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 83 72.29% 31.3 0.878 59.04% -0.4 -0.0057
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 61 70.49% 39.97 3.832 59.02% -0.773 0.0882
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 49 71.43% 39.49 4.41 55.1% -0.852 0.3982
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 90.48% 32.38 1.297 23.81% -1.782 -0.2478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 71.43% 51.29 10.55 57.14% -0.585 1.4834
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 68.57% 42.54 6.947 42.86% -1.624 0.4538
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 459 52.08% 29.09 -1.052 77.78% 0.003 0.0462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 379 60.05% 31.45 0.365 71.77% -0.161 -0.1867
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 353 61.93% 40.24 4.888 75.64% 0.016 0.0162
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 203 70.44% 44.59 6.843 66.5% -0.352 -0.0595
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 148 70.27% 45.37 7.72 63.51% -0.609 -0.2384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 79 78.48% 47.99 9.051 53.16% -0.753 0.0856
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 95 85.11% 40.47 5.419 31.58% -1.676 -0.4279
The Kingdom of England 0 1 397 48.36% 28.25 -1.429 73.55% -0.383 -0.0527
The Kingdom of England 1 3 355 61.3% 32.86 1.247 62.54% -0.651 -0.1612
The Kingdom of England 2 4 248 74.09% 30.68 0.35 49.6% -1.097 -0.1319
The Kingdom of England 3 6 186 83.33% 32.25 1.186 34.41% -1.61 -0.0301
The Kingdom of England 4 7 125 74.4% 35.94 2.348 33.6% -1.995 -0.4805
The Kingdom of England 5 9 45 82.22% 38.89 3.908 26.67% -1.95 0.1212
The Kingdom of England 6 11 164 82.93% 34.45 2.511 15.24% -3.144 -0.8863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1307 18.31% 50.73 2.572 90.82% -0.071 0.4538
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 366 66.94% 30.45 -0.125 52.19% -1.059 -0.1702
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 401 55.25% 34.56 1.77 42.14% -2.119 0.0085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 205 63.9% 38.77 3.874 39.51% -2.005 0.1791
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 113 61.95% 36.88 3.338 27.43% -2.654 -0.5036
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 117 49.57% 40.79 4.543 26.5% -2.887 -1.0612
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 187 53.48% 44.77 6.493 29.41% -2.951 -0.8234
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 352 50.57% 29.17 -1.215 76.42% -0.092 -0.0035
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 315 63.49% 29.64 -0.63 65.71% -0.438 -0.4272
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 340 66.47% 31.78 0.556 62.94% -0.498 -0.2785
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 245 75.1% 39.15 4.386 62.86% -0.446 -0.1633
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 153 75.82% 36.88 3.477 49.02% -1.063 -0.2922
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 64 84.38% 40.56 5.187 51.56% -0.778 0.3897
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 129 79.53% 39.05 4.112 41.09% -1.326 -0.1948
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 62 53.23% 27.39 -1.673 75.81% -0.093 -0.2155
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 50 68.0% 26.58 -1.872 44.0% -1.228 -0.5125
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 51 64.71% 41.14 4.526 74.51% 0.026 0.4641
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 39 64.1% 37.44 3.478 46.15% -1.431 -0.1724
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 75.0% 30.33 0.824 25.0% -1.664 -0.5241
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 25.3 -1.287 0.0% -1.841 0.2193
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 28.33 -2.42 0.0% -1.514 0.422

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5374 55.55 30.25 -0.902 67.92% 0.054 0.4128
1 Thematic 1703 62.34 35.05 0.909 56.14% -0.294 0.2101
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1212 59.46 31.9 -0.037 70.54% 0.307 0.5029
2 Coastline 143 57.14 31.1 -0.677 74.13% 0.37 0.5128
2 Fragment 37 70.27 28.03 -2.057 62.16% 0.027 0.4489
2 Heart 20 70.0 23.9 -3.109 65.0% -0.232 0.061
2 Opposite Shores 213 59.62 29.78 -0.97 68.08% 0.013 0.2376
2 Thematic 421 60.24 35.85 -0.086 58.91% -0.463 -0.4181
2 Top to Top 35 57.14 31.46 -0.165 68.57% 0.146 0.2803
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.574 50.0% -0.402 -0.4356
3 Other 16 50.0 35.56 1.253 87.5% 0.551 0.9663
3 Round (Default) 605 64.48 31.9 -0.313 63.8% 0.038 0.0765
3 Thematic 99 65.66 34.62 -1.264 52.53% -0.271 -0.6279
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 -6.466 50.0% -0.457 -0.2985
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.818 83.33% 0.775 0.8883
4 Thematic 979 6.95 57.28 2.377 95.1% -0.282 -1.368
4 Trapezoid (Default) 306 55.08 32.56 -0.533 66.99% -0.257 -0.2743
5 Other 6 33.33 40.67 1.668 66.67% -0.268 -0.4864
5 Thematic 3 66.67 56.33 9.075 100.0% 0.673 -2.1551

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 586 27.4 -3.653 46.93% -2.453 -0.3829
Aid From Lesser Spirits 486 28.1 -3.183 49.18% -2.29 -0.3719
All Things Weaken 151 28.15 -3.206 46.36% -2.257 -0.1024
Back Against the Wall 447 27.8 -3.479 45.64% -2.332 -0.2357
Disintegrating Ecosystem 508 25.04 -4.937 44.49% -2.428 -0.204
Downward Spiral 776 26.97 -3.606 51.93% -2.173 -0.156
Erosion of Will 564 27.31 -3.744 46.63% -2.338 -0.1284
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 37.56 1.559 87.8% -0.153 0.5518
Memory Fades to Dust 817 25.9 -4.196 48.47% -2.384 -0.1692
Power Corrodes the Spirit 143 24.58 -5.109 42.66% -2.548 -0.5278
Promising Farmlands 568 24.14 -5.185 42.61% -2.601 -0.3883
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 33.87 -0.166 90.0% -0.174 0.2615
Thriving Communities 162 24.42 -4.89 43.83% -2.46 -0.362
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -3.998 49.12% -2.261 -0.0432
Unnatural Proliferation 169 25.34 -4.331 40.24% -2.618 -0.5401
Untended Land Crumbles 168 25.65 -4.209 40.48% -2.55 -0.4517

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2197 56.69% 31.23 -0.42 69.28% 0.09 -0.9992
B 2133 58.04% 31.55 -0.251 69.39% 0.133 -1.0519
C 2247 57.4% 30.81 -0.608 70.23% 0.166 -1.2487
D 2121 57.34% 30.86 -0.52 68.22% 0.087 -1.0905
E 479 62.05% 31.62 -0.15 64.51% 0.111 -1.166
F 859 58.66% 31.06 -0.605 65.31% -0.065 -1.3079
G 931 60.39% 30.98 -0.584 60.69% -0.078 -1.3089
H 936 59.24% 31.36 -0.388 66.24% 0.077 -1.1633
East 1659 29.63% 48.94 2.143 80.71% 0.33 -0.6206
Northeast 1671 28.76% 48.7 2.001 78.99% 0.069 -0.8211
Northwest 1480 26.93% 49.39 1.541 81.35% 0.132 -0.8328
Southeast 187 60.43% 35.44 0.801 63.64% 0.288 -0.7133
Southwest 150 59.33% 30.62 -2.35 60.0% -0.308 -0.9165
West 1610 28.65% 48.4 1.364 78.82% -0.048 -0.7341

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 90 0.0% 26.66 -4.473 72.22% -2.462 -0.4179
Not Using Events or Tokens 282 54.35% 29.26 -0.916 70.57% -0.033 0.1855
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1211 5.49% 57.15 5.01 96.78% 1.049 0.345
Start of Game Growth 1313 8.09% 55.47 4.301 95.66% 0.574 0.1198
Unlimited Undo 646 48.58% 36.2 0.79 74.15% 0.124 -0.2884
Using Tokens but Not Events 1028 46.93% 31.04 -0.512 74.9% 0.187 0.139

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2421 22.34 32.63%
II 4300 30.75 65.84%
III 3018 34.26 84.66%
IV 1453 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.416 Win Model: 0.032
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7081 57.21% 31.41 65.09%
2 2080 59.72% 32.26 67.93%
3 723 64.19% 32.36 62.79%
4 1308 19.22% 51.19 88.15%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 538
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1861
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1904
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1048
Lose: Invader deck ran out 77
Lose: Adversary condition 827
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2510
Lose: Spirit destroyed 149

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)