Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 114 50.89% 30.9 0.026 71.93% -0.416 -0.1334
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 96 71.88% 31.6 1.014 60.42% -0.415 -0.0089
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 73 68.49% 39.66 3.984 60.27% -0.713 0.1623
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 63 73.02% 37.68 3.781 50.79% -1.004 0.2434
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 24 91.67% 34.46 2.533 29.17% -1.559 -0.0577
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 48.63 9.209 50.0% -0.747 1.2059
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 39 66.67% 44.1 7.701 46.15% -1.502 0.5403
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 499 50.91% 29.1 -1.039 77.76% -0.058 -0.0165
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 440 59.0% 31.53 0.452 72.27% -0.182 -0.2003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 393 61.99% 39.88 4.763 74.81% -0.057 -0.046
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 223 69.96% 44.42 6.844 66.82% -0.364 -0.0767
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 161 69.57% 45.66 7.864 64.6% -0.591 -0.2237
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 86 79.07% 47.66 8.93 52.33% -0.818 0.0074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 105 84.62% 39.77 5.102 29.52% -1.851 -0.6127
The Kingdom of England 0 1 443 48.31% 28.28 -1.4 73.59% -0.413 -0.0812
The Kingdom of England 1 3 376 61.33% 32.79 1.243 62.77% -0.681 -0.1679
The Kingdom of England 2 4 270 75.84% 30.23 0.225 48.52% -1.137 -0.171
The Kingdom of England 3 6 202 82.67% 32.27 1.274 34.65% -1.642 -0.0636
The Kingdom of England 4 7 130 75.38% 35.93 2.392 33.85% -1.984 -0.4882
The Kingdom of England 5 9 62 87.1% 34.79 2.346 19.35% -2.305 -0.233
The Kingdom of England 6 11 172 83.14% 34.4 2.506 15.12% -3.186 -0.9376
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1477 17.42% 51.13 2.565 91.06% -0.137 0.3762
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 404 66.58% 30.75 -0.02 53.22% -1.043 -0.1424
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 420 54.89% 34.31 1.677 41.43% -2.208 -0.0669
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 222 63.51% 38.67 3.833 39.19% -2.095 0.102
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 120 62.5% 38.0 3.929 30.0% -2.528 -0.37
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 120 50.0% 41.53 4.905 28.33% -2.859 -1.0452
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 201 54.73% 44.92 6.685 29.85% -2.923 -0.8267
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 388 50.77% 28.99 -1.267 77.06% -0.071 0.0141
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 351 62.96% 29.66 -0.62 65.53% -0.503 -0.4707
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 369 66.12% 31.47 0.453 62.33% -0.56 -0.3259
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 270 75.56% 38.86 4.271 62.22% -0.492 -0.2053
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 171 75.44% 36.71 3.424 48.54% -1.138 -0.3559
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 66 84.85% 40.47 5.177 51.52% -0.799 0.367
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 139 80.29% 38.58 3.968 39.57% -1.397 -0.273
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 85 55.29% 28.48 -1.126 77.65% 0.075 -0.0286
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 66 60.61% 28.11 -1.218 50.0% -1.242 -0.465
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 68 64.71% 39.88 4.307 72.06% -0.112 0.3048
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 49 63.27% 36.55 3.231 44.9% -1.546 -0.2879
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 71.43% 32.64 1.708 28.57% -1.69 -0.5754
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 14 100.0% 25.79 -1.057 0.0% -2.114 -0.1171
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 35.83 2.574 16.67% -1.395 0.4847

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6035 55.47 30.23 -0.881 68.17% 0.139 0.3227
1 Thematic 1854 61.9 34.96 0.867 56.9% -0.169 0.2046
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1357 59.3 31.74 -0.073 70.52% 0.31 0.3701
2 Coastline 170 55.69 31.41 -0.518 75.29% 0.394 0.409
2 Fragment 46 73.91 26.65 -2.368 60.87% 0.001 0.2666
2 Heart 21 66.67 25.29 -2.628 66.67% -0.106 0.0476
2 Opposite Shores 241 57.63 29.67 -1.03 68.05% 0.004 0.1028
2 Thematic 457 58.99 35.82 -0.118 59.74% -0.359 -0.3918
2 Top to Top 38 57.89 31.13 -0.438 65.79% 0.05 0.0312
3 Coastline 4 50.0 23.75 -3.655 50.0% -0.416 -0.6179
3 Other 18 55.56 35.44 1.291 83.33% 0.447 0.6341
3 Round (Default) 660 63.64 31.98 -0.237 64.7% 0.032 -0.0359
3 Thematic 106 66.04 35.36 -0.901 55.66% -0.049 -0.4468
4 Coastline 4 100.0 20.0 -6.577 50.0% -0.489 -0.4355
4 Other 12 66.67 44.08 3.826 83.33% 0.749 0.6488
4 Thematic 1114 6.38 57.61 2.42 95.6% -0.128 -1.2073
4 Trapezoid (Default) 341 54.71 32.23 -0.724 64.81% -0.442 -0.5243
5 Other 6 33.33 40.67 1.624 66.67% -0.26 -0.8692
5 Thematic 4 75.0 47.0 4.887 75.0% 0.321 -2.5591

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 638 27.16 -3.742 46.71% -2.494 -0.4202
Aid From Lesser Spirits 542 27.98 -3.206 49.08% -2.341 -0.4217
All Things Weaken 193 27.71 -3.354 47.15% -2.302 -0.1311
Back Against the Wall 487 27.63 -3.529 45.17% -2.368 -0.2767
Disintegrating Ecosystem 553 25.03 -4.935 44.12% -2.479 -0.253
Downward Spiral 856 26.73 -3.742 51.75% -2.248 -0.2254
Erosion of Will 623 27.35 -3.665 47.03% -2.354 -0.1449
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 53 37.21 1.524 88.68% -0.105 0.5814
Memory Fades to Dust 889 26.02 -4.116 48.26% -2.43 -0.2109
Power Corrodes the Spirit 171 24.86 -4.826 44.44% -2.488 -0.4649
Promising Farmlands 622 23.93 -5.25 42.93% -2.636 -0.4228
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 37 32.57 -0.531 86.49% -0.48 -0.0703
Thriving Communities 193 24.19 -5.063 43.52% -2.524 -0.4288
Tipping Point 340 26.96 -3.991 49.12% -2.294 -0.068
Unnatural Proliferation 201 25.93 -4.044 41.29% -2.641 -0.5548
Untended Land Crumbles 193 25.52 -4.225 41.97% -2.55 -0.4433

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2421 56.63% 31.1 -0.465 69.27% 0.006 -0.7773
B 2341 58.17% 31.38 -0.304 69.07% 0.045 -0.8357
C 2474 57.13% 30.82 -0.583 70.09% 0.079 -1.0324
D 2307 56.77% 30.81 -0.519 68.36% 0.014 -0.8592
E 620 58.85% 31.47 -0.237 65.65% -0.004 -0.9922
F 1008 58.43% 30.9 -0.615 66.17% -0.115 -1.0528
G 1051 59.67% 31.02 -0.545 61.66% -0.148 -1.075
H 1082 59.06% 31.28 -0.371 65.8% -0.027 -0.9643
East 1837 28.17% 49.44 2.139 81.65% 0.16 -0.5127
Northeast 1869 27.64% 49.1 2.037 80.31% -0.019 -0.6423
Northwest 1656 25.51% 49.92 1.627 82.49% 0.004 -0.6888
Southeast 213 59.62% 35.36 0.774 63.85% 0.149 -0.5796
Southwest 169 59.17% 30.98 -2.072 62.13% -0.31 -0.6056
West 1799 27.75% 48.81 1.416 79.82% -0.16 -0.5815

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 103 0.0% 26.92 -4.035 75.73% -2.265 -0.2084
Not Using Events or Tokens 309 52.81% 29.35 -0.875 71.84% -0.017 0.1981
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1362 5.4% 57.17 4.81 96.77% 0.958 0.2698
Start of Game Growth 1472 8.04% 55.55 4.168 95.65% 0.562 0.0933
Unlimited Undo 728 49.41% 35.6 0.624 74.04% 0.094 -0.3257
Using Tokens but Not Events 1151 46.02% 30.92 -0.549 75.76% 0.172 0.1201

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2688 22.35 34.04%
II 4755 30.84 65.97%
III 3408 34.35 84.42%
IV 1637 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.422 Win Model: 0.095
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7902 57.04% 31.35 65.49%
2 2322 59.04% 32.15 68.35%
3 786 63.61% 32.44 63.74%
4 1478 18.43% 51.47 88.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 663
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2181
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2210
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1231
Lose: Invader deck ran out 89
Lose: Adversary condition 905
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2764
Lose: Spirit destroyed 164

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)