Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 36.36% 26.91 100.0% 0.426 0.8661 0.0
Blitz 0 153 53.59% 28.78 66.67% -0.521 -0.2653 -1.056
Dahan Insurrection 4 182 24.73% 54.88 73.08% 0.052 0.3539 -0.59
Despicable Theft 2 51 41.18% 38.02 82.35% -0.174 0.3702 0.187
Elemental Invocation 1 133 48.12% 29.16 69.92% 0.662 1.2731 -0.389
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1554 23.75% 43.39 60.1% -0.652 -0.458 -1.641
Powers Long Forgotten 1 82 54.88% 32.78 67.07% 0.0 0.2453 -0.35
Rituals of Terror 3 55 58.18% 41.55 69.09% -0.64 -1.4766 0.207
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 37 69.44% 39.81 70.27% -0.352 0.1738 0.156
Second Wave 0 772 39.54% 33.07 81.48% 0.251 0.8235 -0.063
The Great River 3 71 39.44% 34.86 61.97% 0.144 1.7833 -0.893
Varied Terrains 2 10 30.0% 47.2 100.0% 0.319 1.0641 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 87 36.78% 33.52 72.41% 0.251 1.3056 -1.166

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18260 45.02% 42.13 78.94% -0.289 0.1568 0.015
1 Thematic 590 46.93% 34.73 71.19% -0.151 0.4811 -1.024
2 Archipelago 25 28.0% 42.76 92.0% 0.081 0.094 0.249
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3422 46.38% 39.37 80.68% 0.135 0.4797 0.289
2 Coastline 673 38.32% 43.09 84.84% 0.275 0.3579 0.251
2 Fragment 131 54.96% 43.61 77.1% 0.603 0.6915 0.51
2 Heart 40 47.5% 32.98 85.0% 0.099 0.7108 -0.524
2 Opposite Shores 748 38.2% 37.96 85.96% -0.092 0.2859 -0.078
2 Thematic 218 59.63% 36.98 65.6% -0.97 -0.4526 0.261
2 Top to Top 228 48.02% 43.62 83.77% -0.022 0.1169 -0.395
3 Archipelago 16 56.25% 39.56 75.0% 0.0 -0.9775 -0.788
3 Coastline 20 45.0% 37.45 65.0% 0.04 -0.6089 0.419
3 Other 184 16.85% 30.68 92.93% -0.119 -1.19 0.347
3 Round (Default) 1870 43.57% 40.44 80.91% -0.028 0.1643 0.216
3 Sunrise 6 50.0% 45.67 100.0% 0.346 0.6657 0.467
3 Thematic 57 56.14% 38.44 75.44% -0.141 -0.3862 0.034
4 Archipelago 12 41.67% 45.5 100.0% 0.202 -0.1997 0.293
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 0.1977 0.069
4 Leaf 7 71.43% 35.0 71.43% 0.0 0.4908 0.0
4 Other 65 30.77% 34.54 84.62% 0.112 -0.4293 0.391
4 Thematic 162 43.13% 45.47 69.14% -0.141 -0.1356 0.066
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1055 34.26% 38.48 82.75% 0.229 0.0882 0.313
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.2575 0.0
5 Other 50 42.86% 38.88 88.0% 0.279 0.1039 1.562
5 Thematic 4 0.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 -0.0346 0.0
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 33.5 66.67% 0.384 -0.3672 -1.331
6 Other 19 26.32% 32.21 84.21% -0.54 0.1574 0.559
6 Star 16 18.75% 39.63 81.25% -0.456 0.0768 -0.484
6 Thematic 80 34.18% 36.01 80.0% 0.536 1.035 -1.08
6 Two Centers (Default) 67 30.3% 33.4 79.1% -0.672 -0.4465 -0.601
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.063 -0.7087 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 888 40.39 63.85% -1.435 0.4749 -0.905
Aid From Lesser Spirits 787 43.22 68.61% -1.227 0.4574 -0.502
All Things Weaken 940 38.95 61.38% -1.378 0.6218 -0.82
Back Against the Wall 726 42.87 67.08% -0.994 0.9539 -0.681
Disintegrating Ecosystem 797 38.57 60.1% -1.138 0.9278 -0.911
Downward Spiral 986 38.94 66.53% -1.276 0.687 -0.767
Erosion of Will 861 39.61 59.23% -1.419 0.6886 -0.902
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 400 47.93 87.75% -0.482 0.1345 0.427
Memory Fades to Dust 949 38.23 61.43% -1.413 0.6446 -0.911
Power Corrodes the Spirit 919 38.55 60.72% -1.003 0.9759 -0.937
Promising Farmlands 886 37.97 61.63% -1.022 1.0802 -0.9
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 276 46.7 90.58% -0.56 -0.2306 0.458
Thriving Communities 941 38.94 62.91% -1.182 0.8675 -0.686
Unnatural Proliferation 973 39.83 59.71% -1.346 0.5978 -0.827
Untended Land Crumbles 966 38.37 60.97% -1.655 0.3711 -0.867

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5259 42.31% 39.89 81.06% 0.131 0.8903 0.309
B 5655 42.41% 39.39 81.36% 0.082 0.7586 0.076
C 7197 43.18% 42.96 82.73% 0.457 0.9822 0.727
D 4819 42.67% 39.7 81.66% 0.128 0.855 0.382
E 5133 43.07% 40.27 79.27% -0.033 0.5266 0.278
F 4359 42.39% 40.23 79.08% -0.097 0.5928 0.253
G 4456 42.0% 40.15 77.49% -0.045 0.6505 0.219
H 3892 44.33% 40.59 81.76% 0.24 0.901 0.554
East 718 46.43% 38.92 70.75% 0.012 0.6914 0.058
Northeast 429 47.2% 39.41 69.46% -0.297 0.2724 -0.822
Northwest 345 49.42% 38.41 66.67% -0.54 0.3021 -1.077
Southeast 267 42.42% 37.1 74.91% -0.229 0.2977 0.239
Southwest 254 45.82% 35.04 70.87% 0.286 1.2268 -0.447
West 622 51.7% 37.84 68.65% -0.098 0.9018 0.365

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 261 0.0% 22.97 73.18% -1.105 1.0144 0.399
Not Using Events or Tokens 86 59.09% 15.74 50.0% -1.12 -0.8793 -0.261
Skip Initial Invader Actions 611 13.32% 43.94 94.11% 0.472 0.1034 -0.206
Start of Game Growth 848 18.73% 44.68 91.39% 0.054 -0.5686 1.507
Unlimited Undo 2423 39.27% 44.16 88.2% 1.102 0.4717 0.923
Using Tokens but Not Events 2719 20.7% 33.34 90.66% 0.08 0.1239 -0.158

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 999 100.0% 39.55 100.0% -0.146 -0.1934 -0.023
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 431 100.0% 37.58 100.0% -0.657 -0.5936 -0.277
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 369 100.0% 36.08 100.0% -0.547 -0.7851 0.372
Downpour Drenches the World 62 100.0% 35.24 100.0% -0.466 -0.0743 -0.075
Eyes Watch From the Trees 683 100.0% 40.08 100.0% 1.199 0.7838 0.161
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 440 100.0% 35.31 100.0% -0.1 -0.6945 0.019
Finder of Paths Unseen 23 100.0% 33.35 100.0% 0.235 0.6397 0.587
Fractured Days Split the Sky 499 100.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.383 0.4251 0.01
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 422 100.0% 43.0 100.0% 0.154 0.137 -0.037
Heart of the Wildfire 284 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.689 -0.3604 -0.138
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1002 100.0% 44.38 100.0% -0.021 -0.6552 0.487
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 719 100.0% 37.65 100.0% 0.113 -0.0938 -0.038
Many Minds Move as One 392 100.0% 37.74 100.0% -0.782 -1.2944 0.463
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 651 100.0% 42.93 100.0% 0.484 0.2014 0.086
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 442 100.0% 37.81 100.0% -0.234 -0.2012 0.35
River Surges in Sunlight 930 147.47% 49.01 116.67% 0.118 0.1238 0.553
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 636 39.72% 31.97 79.09% 0.401 0.8455 -0.687
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 135 42.98% 49.55 83.7% 0.095 -0.1481 -0.015
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 457 100.0% 39.78 100.0% -0.052 -0.1953 -0.201
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 62 962.34% 26.61 445.16% 0.0 0.5018 -0.421
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 14 35.71% 35.86 92.86% 0.627 0.7651 0.247
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 31 29.03% 48.77 96.77% 0.882 0.8047 0.296
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 810 43.18% 37.66 80.25% -0.379 -0.3807 0.064
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 312 41.88% 34.51 83.33% 0.421 0.4899 0.298
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 401 100.0% 42.51 100.0% -0.043 -0.3046 0.319
Shifting Memory of Ages 253 100.0% 35.99 100.0% 0.556 0.5777 -0.208
Shroud of Silent Mist 240 100.0% 33.3 100.0% -0.342 -0.0977 -1.004
Starlight Seeks its Form 183 100.0% 43.05 100.0% 0.438 0.2264 0.428
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 639 100.0% 39.69 100.0% -0.206 -0.3749 0.179
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 393 100.0% 41.19 100.0% 0.495 0.6056 0.628
Thunderspeaker 469 100.0% 38.6 100.0% 0.031 -0.0645 -0.542
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 326 100.0% 32.29 100.0% -0.834 -0.9316 -0.756
Vital Strength of the Earth 204 228.17% 31.78 144.12% -0.084 0.7981 -0.358
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 36 33.33% 37.78 83.33% -0.883 -0.4819 -0.317
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 425 40.14% 31.8 80.24% -0.391 0.6516 -0.483
Volcano Looming High 378 100.0% 35.96 100.0% 0.198 0.1826 -0.003

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 97.89%
Lightning's Boon 93.28%
Raging Storm 84.36%
Shatter Homesteads 98.88%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1454 22.62 10.52%
II 6759 31.05 55.1%
III 10554 34.62 87.04%
IV 9278 37.86 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 153
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9080
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3611
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9233
Lose: Invader deck ran out 43
Lose: Adversary condition 2015
Win: Sacrifice victory 53
Lose: Scenario condition 404
Win: Scenario condition 196
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3160
Lose: Spirit destroyed 97

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.571 Win Model: -0.261

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.041 Win Model: 0.012
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 18898 45.12% 41.91 78.71%
2 5476 45.05% 39.77 81.45%
3 2149 41.53% 39.42 81.57%
4 1298 35.38% 39.26 81.28%
5 36 22.86% 34.0 91.67%
6 188 30.65% 34.86 79.79%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)