Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 26.67% 25.63 80.0% -0.355 -0.6106 -0.552
Blitz 0 181 54.7% 28.41 68.51% 1.073 1.2707 -0.922
Dahan Insurrection 4 215 25.12% 54.5 72.09% 0.701 0.2585 -0.362
Despicable Theft 2 58 41.38% 37.6 79.31% -0.624 0.188 0.089
Elemental Invocation 1 154 48.7% 28.27 66.23% -0.757 -0.0542 -0.5
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1819 22.1% 39.89 55.96% -0.512 -1.1565 -1.528
Powers Long Forgotten 1 95 54.74% 31.28 64.21% -0.531 0.1044 -0.266
Rituals of Terror 3 56 57.14% 41.59 69.64% 0.206 0.3073 0.303
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 43 73.81% 40.51 74.42% 1.476 2.4853 0.226
Second Wave 0 844 39.85% 32.89 80.81% -0.207 -0.1404 0.009
The Great River 3 84 38.1% 33.06 59.52% -1.529 -0.312 -1.241
Varied Terrains 2 22 40.91% 42.0 81.82% 0.217 0.8399 -0.156
Ward the Shores 2 120 30.83% 26.38 57.5% -1.694 -0.6101 -1.101

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20345 45.1% 41.54 78.07% 0.618 0.6716 -0.015
1 Thematic 629 47.04% 34.48 70.91% -0.115 0.3628 -0.912
2 Archipelago 30 26.67% 42.03 86.67% -0.628 -0.5244 -0.255
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3970 45.77% 38.46 78.77% 0.052 0.134 0.211
2 Coastline 821 35.06% 40.9 81.61% 0.381 0.2272 0.104
2 Fragment 146 54.11% 42.45 76.71% 0.207 -0.0422 0.319
2 Heart 47 44.68% 33.62 82.98% -0.026 -0.3129 -0.259
2 Opposite Shores 841 38.86% 37.24 83.12% -0.055 -0.0317 -0.093
2 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.8237 0.0
2 Thematic 292 59.93% 34.56 57.19% -0.268 0.1352 0.263
2 Top to Top 263 49.24% 43.68 82.51% 1.265 1.0992 -0.225
3 Archipelago 18 55.56% 41.5 77.78% 0.643 -0.9062 -0.245
3 Coastline 21 42.86% 35.67 61.9% -0.407 -0.9205 0.487
3 Other 353 12.75% 18.48 53.54% -1.81 -1.2689 0.175
3 Round (Default) 2165 43.29% 39.47 78.94% 0.145 0.0295 0.054
3 Sunrise 6 50.0% 45.67 100.0% 0.0 0.2798 0.436
3 Thematic 59 54.24% 37.66 74.58% 0.061 0.1408 -0.208
4 Archipelago 13 38.46% 45.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.6745 0.307
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 28.75 50.0% -0.073 0.1581 0.08
4 Leaf 7 71.43% 35.0 71.43% 0.0 -0.3433 0.0
4 Other 67 29.85% 33.51 82.09% -0.281 -1.3645 0.512
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 167 42.42% 44.56 68.26% -0.069 -0.3318 -0.057
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1206 33.81% 37.24 79.35% -0.687 -0.7699 0.031
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 24.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.9161 0.0
5 Coastline 5 0.0% 25.8 80.0% 0.18 -0.4721 0.442
5 Other 65 41.27% 37.49 83.08% 0.484 0.1987 0.897
5 Thematic 6 0.0% 23.17 66.67% -0.095 -0.1884 -0.311
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 33.5 66.67% 0.0 0.1512 -1.13
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 35.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.8009 0.0
6 Other 28 28.57% 28.79 78.57% 0.057 -0.1759 0.538
6 Star 21 19.05% 34.33 76.19% -0.177 -0.1899 -0.473
6 Thematic 107 33.02% 34.5 74.77% -0.103 0.3175 -0.671
6 Two Centers (Default) 102 33.0% 30.65 75.49% 0.156 0.26 -0.371
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 25.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.0189 0.0
7 Other 2 0.0% 14.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.6126 -0.223

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 995 40.17 63.62% -0.29 -0.0472 -0.753
Aid From Lesser Spirits 855 43.23 68.42% 0.167 0.0894 -0.391
All Things Weaken 1049 38.53 60.34% -0.406 -0.0134 -0.766
Attenuated Essence 39 34.21 46.15% -0.607 -0.5 -0.275
Back Against the Wall 814 42.42 66.71% 0.294 0.3515 -0.56
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 32 36.44 56.25% -0.157 0.0448 -1.55
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 39.57 64.29% 0.22 0.4304 -0.454
Disintegrating Ecosystem 891 37.59 58.14% -1.079 -0.6558 -0.864
Downward Spiral 1076 38.71 66.26% 0.183 0.4187 -0.637
Erosion of Will 949 39.53 59.22% -0.544 -0.2351 -0.792
Intensifying Exploitation 41 37.8 65.85% 0.251 0.5384 -0.92
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 457 46.43 85.78% -0.248 -0.7417 0.527
Memory Fades to Dust 1052 37.64 60.46% -0.391 -0.0547 -0.833
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1021 38.47 61.41% 0.008 0.228 -0.765
Promising Farmlands 969 37.71 60.68% -0.843 -0.3895 -0.766
Shattered Fragments of Power 23 42.96 69.57% 0.619 0.6697 -0.576
Slow Dissolution of Will 19 27.89 31.58% -0.645 -0.2456 -0.915
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 306 46.46 89.87% 0.456 -0.2549 0.484
The Border of Life and Death 18 40.06 72.22% 0.185 -0.1503 -0.07
Thriving Communities 1044 38.17 61.4% -0.872 -0.5091 -0.56
Thriving Crops 16 27.56 50.0% -0.362 -0.5597 -0.839
Unnatural Proliferation 1095 39.53 60.0% -0.209 0.0061 -0.684
Untended Land Crumbles 1067 37.93 60.54% -0.254 0.0278 -0.785

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6062 42.09% 38.91 79.08% -0.053 0.6872 0.192
B 6624 41.12% 37.54 77.73% -0.073 0.6529 0.016
C 8398 42.21% 41.2 79.46% -0.021 0.5616 0.656
D 5485 42.42% 38.96 79.71% 0.104 0.8158 0.274
E 6022 41.98% 38.3 75.52% 0.39 0.9552 0.198
F 4945 42.23% 39.29 77.51% -0.096 0.5739 0.219
G 5039 42.02% 39.49 76.52% -0.039 0.6129 0.196
H 4427 43.65% 39.76 80.01% 0.017 0.5873 0.396
East 841 47.14% 37.5 67.18% -0.346 0.193 0.116
Northeast 492 45.62% 37.92 67.48% 0.218 0.8532 -0.911
Northwest 404 47.39% 36.7 64.11% -0.448 0.3615 -0.775
Southeast 310 41.69% 35.72 71.94% 0.085 0.7913 0.378
Southwest 300 44.11% 33.51 67.67% 0.025 1.0153 -0.461
West 743 51.08% 35.99 64.06% -0.126 0.7781 0.299

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 325 0.0% 22.84 69.85% -1.06 -0.2834 -0.038
Not Using Events or Tokens 106 54.17% 14.21 47.17% -0.082 0.2975 -0.262
Skip Initial Invader Actions 727 13.86% 42.62 93.12% 0.695 0.077 -0.379
Start of Game Growth 1002 19.02% 43.28 89.92% 0.201 -0.1474 1.212
Unlimited Undo 2834 40.85% 43.34 86.2% -0.1 -0.1067 0.862
Using Tokens but Not Events 3351 20.17% 31.11 84.03% -0.193 -0.2034 -0.241

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1149 100.0% 37.91 100.0% 0.105 -0.0432 0.135
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 509 100.0% 36.02 100.0% 0.3 0.4309 -0.093
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 431 100.0% 35.52 100.0% 0.538 0.3932 0.185
Downpour Drenches the World 136 100.0% 33.96 100.0% -0.03 0.1498 0.032
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 233 100.0% 20.12 100.0% 0.262 -0.5027 -0.426
Eyes Watch From the Trees 782 100.0% 38.2 100.0% 0.032 -0.5568 0.152
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 509 100.0% 34.95 100.0% 0.604 0.1071 0.146
Finder of Paths Unseen 46 100.0% 27.7 100.0% -0.718 -0.0537 0.004
Fractured Days Split the Sky 544 100.0% 38.89 100.0% -0.287 0.2993 0.025
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 548 100.0% 40.28 100.0% -0.207 -0.3016 -0.12
Heart of the Wildfire 320 100.0% 36.0 100.0% -0.306 -0.0652 -0.399
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1118 100.0% 43.46 100.0% 0.259 -0.1827 0.448
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 823 100.0% 36.41 100.0% -0.337 -0.469 -0.1
Many Minds Move as One 447 100.0% 36.83 100.0% 0.104 -0.1178 0.415
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 745 100.0% 40.36 100.0% -0.741 -0.7838 0.035
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 513 100.0% 36.26 100.0% -0.503 -0.6808 0.504
River Surges in Sunlight 1032 152.82% 48.86 121.22% 0.335 0.4053 0.608
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 687 39.06% 31.4 78.17% 0.371 0.6812 -0.618
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 266 39.67% 45.33 74.06% -0.054 -0.1677 0.081
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 503 100.0% 38.53 100.0% 0.697 0.46 -0.016
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 69 944.19% 25.94 466.67% -0.114 0.4157 -0.334
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 38 42.11% 31.11 84.21% 1.262 1.1864 -0.56
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 59 37.93% 37.08 81.36% -0.208 -0.3136 0.498
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 861 43.23% 37.18 79.67% 0.054 0.0351 0.215
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 332 43.29% 33.77 81.63% -0.258 -0.0816 0.518
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 445 107.19% 41.83 103.37% -0.04 -0.2304 0.413
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 40 20.0% 30.5 62.5% 0.227 -0.1537 0.554
Shifting Memory of Ages 472 100.0% 23.22 100.0% -1.371 -1.018 -0.781
Shroud of Silent Mist 290 100.0% 31.14 100.0% -0.181 0.0696 -0.916
Starlight Seeks its Form 290 100.0% 36.6 100.0% -0.039 -0.3006 0.356
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 730 100.0% 38.8 100.0% -0.119 -0.596 0.03
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 461 100.0% 38.97 100.0% -0.192 -0.1287 0.579
Thunderspeaker 530 102.08% 38.4 100.75% 0.658 0.6241 -0.342
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 14 21.43% 23.14 71.43% 0.489 0.4496 0.168
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 371 100.0% 31.54 100.0% -0.02 0.0733 -0.591
Vital Strength of the Earth 258 216.85% 29.21 143.41% -0.565 -0.0405 -0.39
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 71 35.21% 37.35 80.28% 0.644 0.9044 -0.132
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 455 40.36% 31.12 78.46% -1.034 -0.2583 -0.399
Volcano Looming High 437 100.0% 35.83 100.0% 0.416 0.3734 0.07

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 97.8%
Lightning's Boon 93.36%
Raging Storm 84.42%
Shatter Homesteads 98.9%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2214 20.4 8.63%
II 7645 31.01 54.41%
III 11667 34.76 86.92%
IV 10308 38.07 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 191
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10029
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4023
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10255
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 664
Lose: Invader deck ran out 44
Lose: Adversary condition 2258
Win: Sacrifice victory 62
Lose: Scenario condition 443
Win: Scenario condition 224
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3527
Lose: Spirit destroyed 114

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.096 Win Model: -0.061

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.685 Win Model: 0.053
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 21035 45.19% 41.33 77.86%
2 6401 44.46% 38.72 78.93%
3 2619 39.28% 36.49 75.18%
4 1459 34.72% 37.92 78.34%
5 52 26.0% 32.69 82.69%
6 268 31.7% 32.14 74.63%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)