Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 44.44% 32.06 94.44% 0.223 -0.2234 0.164
Blitz 0 166 54.82% 28.61 66.87% -0.708 -0.2513 -1.163
Dahan Insurrection 4 194 24.23% 54.79 72.68% -0.774 -0.7543 -0.516
Despicable Theft 2 54 40.74% 38.0 81.48% -0.553 -0.0406 0.309
Elemental Invocation 1 141 49.65% 29.5 68.79% -1.018 -0.3187 -0.336
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1622 23.8% 43.27 60.17% -1.14 -1.099 -1.648
Powers Long Forgotten 1 84 54.76% 32.88 67.86% 0.0 0.5618 -0.354
Rituals of Terror 3 55 58.18% 41.55 69.09% 0.0 -0.2878 0.212
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 38 70.27% 39.74 71.05% 0.274 0.7043 0.226
Second Wave 0 806 39.48% 33.06 81.39% -0.318 0.1435 -0.139
The Great River 3 77 40.26% 35.21 63.64% 0.242 2.0082 -1.131
Varied Terrains 2 15 40.0% 42.67 93.33% -0.266 0.5621 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 88 36.36% 33.48 72.73% 0.087 0.8306 -1.139

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19236 45.16% 42.08 78.91% 0.01 0.5599 -0.014
1 Thematic 612 46.22% 34.82 71.73% 0.809 1.8068 -1.029
2 Archipelago 27 25.93% 42.74 92.59% 0.057 0.6741 0.225
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3641 46.36% 39.43 80.66% -0.004 0.4057 0.285
2 Coastline 720 37.95% 43.22 85.42% 0.518 0.6536 0.281
2 Fragment 134 55.97% 43.1 76.87% -0.329 -0.3336 0.517
2 Heart 42 45.24% 33.69 85.71% 0.127 0.6024 -0.519
2 Opposite Shores 782 37.95% 38.02 85.42% -0.526 -0.1726 -0.063
2 Thematic 251 62.55% 36.02 59.76% -1.101 -0.1714 0.2
2 Top to Top 238 49.37% 44.05 83.61% 0.122 0.2486 -0.321
3 Archipelago 17 58.82% 39.47 76.47% 0.0 0.1788 -0.778
3 Coastline 20 45.0% 37.45 65.0% 0.429 0.0119 0.448
3 Other 190 16.84% 30.37 92.63% -0.285 -1.0042 0.346
3 Round (Default) 1983 43.97% 40.37 80.74% 0.246 0.4392 0.174
3 Sunrise 6 50.0% 45.67 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.459
3 Thematic 57 56.14% 38.44 75.44% 0.0 0.015 -0.037
4 Archipelago 13 38.46% 45.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.4195 0.328
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 -0.0727 0.071
4 Leaf 7 71.43% 35.0 71.43% 0.054 -0.0422 0.0
4 Other 65 30.77% 34.54 84.62% 0.0 -0.6161 0.431
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.138 0.0926 0.0
4 Thematic 164 43.21% 45.15 68.9% -0.404 -0.1216 0.069
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1116 34.21% 38.52 82.53% -0.137 0.0512 0.355
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 24.5 50.0% 0.215 -0.1687 0.0
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.0 0.1073 0.0
5 Other 55 40.74% 37.56 83.64% -0.25 -0.8807 0.97
5 Thematic 4 0.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 -0.9744 0.0
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 33.5 66.67% 0.0 -0.0703 -1.291
6 Other 22 27.27% 31.77 81.82% -0.244 -0.4859 0.6
6 Star 17 17.65% 40.12 82.35% 0.0 0.5458 -0.523
6 Thematic 90 34.83% 37.34 81.11% 0.407 0.4525 -0.646
6 Two Centers (Default) 80 35.9% 32.67 78.75% 0.524 0.9873 -0.528
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 25.5 50.0% -0.432 -0.6534 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3606 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 951 40.52 64.14% -0.497 1.2333 -0.87
Aid From Lesser Spirits 822 43.31 68.61% -0.597 0.9782 -0.512
All Things Weaken 993 38.83 61.13% -1.273 0.6043 -0.814
Back Against the Wall 780 42.73 66.79% -1.422 0.2144 -0.693
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 67.0 100.0% 0.061 1.5086 0.122
Disintegrating Ecosystem 844 38.14 59.12% -1.809 0.0341 -0.953
Downward Spiral 1029 39.02 66.67% -1.131 0.5673 -0.734
Erosion of Will 911 39.72 59.39% -1.384 0.5165 -0.898
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 432 47.45 87.27% -0.233 0.2669 0.449
Memory Fades to Dust 1000 38.16 61.0% -1.266 0.6097 -0.935
Power Corrodes the Spirit 978 38.69 61.55% -0.412 1.2924 -0.876
Promising Farmlands 924 37.99 61.58% -1.127 0.7491 -0.872
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 26.0 0.0% -0.829 0.6421 -0.764
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 295 46.61 90.51% 0.205 0.4155 0.352
Thriving Communities 999 38.72 62.26% -1.735 0.1357 -0.648
Unnatural Proliferation 1047 39.89 60.17% -1.184 0.5701 -0.805
Untended Land Crumbles 1009 38.29 60.85% -1.329 0.4851 -0.891

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5573 42.6% 39.87 80.98% -0.055 0.7223 0.259
B 5980 42.61% 39.28 81.24% -0.092 0.6113 0.056
C 7648 43.18% 42.92 82.65% 0.087 0.6146 0.698
D 5089 42.75% 39.71 81.45% -0.191 0.5439 0.338
E 5427 43.22% 40.16 78.9% -0.207 0.3766 0.259
F 4601 42.63% 40.17 79.09% 0.124 0.831 0.257
G 4703 42.17% 40.09 77.59% 0.074 0.7162 0.228
H 4123 44.47% 40.56 81.54% 0.386 1.0306 0.519
East 774 47.6% 38.65 69.25% 0.046 0.6373 0.092
Northeast 450 46.99% 39.55 69.78% 0.576 1.2533 -0.783
Northwest 368 49.32% 38.45 66.85% -0.433 0.005 -0.929
Southeast 282 42.29% 37.45 75.18% 0.111 0.7747 0.414
Southwest 267 45.45% 35.46 71.54% -0.166 1.0052 -0.42
West 674 52.61% 37.49 66.77% 0.22 1.0378 0.322

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 299 0.0% 23.64 72.58% -2.405 -0.3294 0.4
Not Using Events or Tokens 92 59.09% 14.93 47.83% -1.075 -0.9031 -0.24
Skip Initial Invader Actions 664 14.31% 43.78 94.13% 0.815 -0.2437 -0.76
Start of Game Growth 923 19.36% 44.5 91.12% 0.179 -0.2435 1.146
Unlimited Undo 2630 40.64% 44.29 88.14% 0.787 0.3713 0.973
Using Tokens but Not Events 2910 21.48% 33.35 90.34% 0.382 0.498 -0.037

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1056 100.0% 39.38 100.0% 0.325 0.1456 0.008
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 468 100.0% 37.07 100.0% -0.532 -0.5176 -0.243
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 396 100.0% 36.08 100.0% 0.844 0.5989 0.416
Downpour Drenches the World 97 100.0% 38.65 100.0% -0.056 0.3316 0.451
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 1 100.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.107 0.3425 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 717 100.0% 39.64 100.0% 0.311 -0.1624 0.164
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 474 100.0% 35.59 100.0% 0.123 -0.324 0.105
Finder of Paths Unseen 28 100.0% 34.07 100.0% -0.655 -0.2914 -0.268
Fractured Days Split the Sky 509 100.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.197 0.3003 0.024
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 474 100.0% 42.09 100.0% -0.421 -0.4852 -0.103
Heart of the Wildfire 297 100.0% 37.23 100.0% -0.41 -0.1507 -0.229
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1057 100.0% 44.41 100.0% 0.515 -0.0684 0.558
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 749 100.0% 37.72 100.0% 0.543 0.4219 0.024
Many Minds Move as One 416 100.0% 37.61 100.0% -0.503 -1.1257 0.426
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 673 100.0% 42.58 100.0% -0.978 -1.1053 0.065
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 473 100.0% 37.58 100.0% -0.223 -0.3066 0.346
River Surges in Sunlight 976 148.45% 49.55 117.11% 0.787 0.5953 0.607
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 658 39.97% 31.75 78.88% -0.957 -0.669 -0.697
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 186 42.68% 50.75 84.95% 0.378 0.0156 0.083
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 472 100.0% 39.56 100.0% 0.152 -0.0212 -0.177
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 64 969.62% 26.13 453.13% 0.0 0.393 -0.39
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 27 44.44% 30.7 85.19% -0.001 0.0963 -0.903
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 43 37.21% 43.0 90.7% -0.307 -0.232 0.665
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 828 43.33% 37.59 80.56% 0.893 0.8567 0.14
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 323 42.95% 34.02 82.35% -0.476 -0.4729 0.33
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 425 100.0% 42.71 100.0% 0.154 -0.0459 0.372
Shifting Memory of Ages 278 100.0% 35.18 100.0% -0.654 -0.4245 -0.158
Shroud of Silent Mist 257 100.0% 32.93 100.0% 0.003 0.1873 -1.069
Starlight Seeks its Form 220 100.0% 42.11 100.0% -0.369 -0.5252 0.281
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 674 100.0% 40.07 100.0% -0.142 -0.405 0.179
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 412 100.0% 40.91 100.0% -0.331 -0.2686 0.685
Thunderspeaker 501 100.2% 38.98 100.0% 0.529 0.4525 -0.456
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.107 0.3123 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 342 100.0% 32.34 100.0% 0.295 0.0331 -0.757
Vital Strength of the Earth 235 220.49% 31.11 141.7% -0.523 0.2299 -0.353
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 52 30.77% 39.19 84.62% 0.501 1.0793 0.267
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 442 40.42% 31.55 79.64% -0.159 0.991 -0.485
Volcano Looming High 396 100.0% 35.83 100.0% 0.788 0.7842 0.012

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 97.83%
Lightning's Boon 93.23%
Raging Storm 84.24%
Shatter Homesteads 98.9%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1567 22.63 10.47%
II 7123 31.12 54.86%
III 11095 34.7 87.08%
IV 9833 37.97 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 164
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9553
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3788
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9784
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 8
Lose: Invader deck ran out 44
Lose: Adversary condition 2128
Win: Sacrifice victory 56
Lose: Scenario condition 423
Win: Scenario condition 205
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3359
Lose: Spirit destroyed 106

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.993 Win Model: -0.144

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.156 Win Model: -0.105
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 19903 45.23% 41.86 78.7%
2 5826 45.21% 39.8 81.14%
3 2269 41.9% 39.38 81.4%
4 1363 35.33% 39.12 81.07%
5 41 22.5% 32.83 85.37%
6 216 33.33% 34.98 79.63%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)