Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 37.5% 26.88 100.0% 0.408 0.206 0.0
Blitz 0 148 53.38% 28.91 66.89% 0.504 0.761 -0.973
Dahan Insurrection 4 179 24.58% 54.74 72.63% 0.527 0.9405 -0.564
Despicable Theft 2 47 38.3% 38.4 82.98% 0.09 0.5359 0.525
Elemental Invocation 1 129 48.84% 29.01 68.99% 0.274 0.7593 -0.401
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1482 24.02% 43.25 60.05% -1.075 -0.7691 -1.628
Powers Long Forgotten 1 82 54.88% 32.78 67.07% -1.209 -1.0271 -0.363
Rituals of Terror 3 52 55.77% 41.13 69.23% -0.77 -0.6486 0.109
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 35 70.59% 40.37 71.43% 0.228 0.6431 0.152
Second Wave 0 745 39.77% 32.99 81.07% -0.148 0.4178 -0.069
The Great River 3 68 41.18% 34.62 60.29% -0.38 1.0178 -0.874
Varied Terrains 2 6 0.0% 41.33 100.0% 0.271 0.7964 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 86 36.05% 33.42 72.09% -1.191 -0.0291 -1.167

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 17498 44.95% 42.23 79.04% 0.236 1.2525 -0.007
1 Thematic 576 46.68% 34.61 71.01% -0.052 1.1204 -1.072
2 Archipelago 22 31.82% 41.55 90.91% 0.085 1.0688 0.164
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3300 46.29% 39.35 80.58% 0.255 1.0069 0.29
2 Coastline 625 37.26% 42.54 84.8% 0.635 1.2379 0.215
2 Fragment 129 55.04% 43.57 76.74% -0.01 0.4379 0.46
2 Heart 39 46.15% 32.36 84.62% 0.462 0.9998 -0.538
2 Opposite Shores 711 37.66% 37.89 86.64% 0.287 1.2791 0.06
2 Thematic 210 60.48% 37.14 66.19% 0.095 0.7933 0.29
2 Top to Top 220 47.49% 43.77 84.09% 0.008 0.518 -0.355
3 Archipelago 16 56.25% 39.56 75.0% 0.0 0.1732 -0.783
3 Coastline 19 47.37% 37.63 63.16% 0.0 -0.7829 0.411
3 Other 178 16.85% 30.85 92.7% -0.43 -0.4652 0.367
3 Round (Default) 1772 43.7% 40.2 80.64% -0.544 0.0505 0.22
3 Sunrise 5 40.0% 40.0 100.0% 0.012 0.0489 0.159
3 Thematic 55 56.36% 38.27 74.55% -0.137 -0.175 0.096
4 Archipelago 10 40.0% 47.2 100.0% 0.033 -0.6778 0.29
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 38.33 66.67% 0.244 0.361 0.072
4 Leaf 7 71.43% 35.0 71.43% 0.106 0.6682 0.0
4 Other 65 30.77% 34.54 84.62% -0.863 -1.1164 0.382
4 Thematic 162 43.13% 45.47 69.14% -0.233 0.2963 0.172
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1029 34.31% 38.42 82.51% 0.389 0.3619 0.346
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 43 48.84% 38.47 86.05% 0.192 0.3602 1.585
5 Thematic 4 0.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 -0.2767 0.0
6 Archipelago 5 20.0% 28.8 60.0% 0.0 -0.2557 -1.29
6 Other 13 15.38% 35.46 92.31% 0.07 0.8793 0.593
6 Star 9 22.22% 30.89 88.89% 0.074 0.8575 -0.263
6 Thematic 65 34.38% 34.48 78.46% -0.157 -0.436 -1.234
6 Two Centers (Default) 62 31.15% 34.15 79.03% -0.21 -0.3037 -0.623
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 850 40.48 63.88% -1.461 0.4418 -0.9
Aid From Lesser Spirits 762 43.26 68.77% -0.826 0.9042 -0.505
All Things Weaken 897 38.9 61.54% -0.588 1.3973 -0.804
Back Against the Wall 694 42.81 67.15% -0.896 0.9208 -0.678
Disintegrating Ecosystem 762 38.64 59.71% -1.401 0.6494 -0.904
Downward Spiral 945 38.88 66.77% -0.816 1.1774 -0.789
Erosion of Will 824 39.57 59.22% -1.857 0.2263 -0.915
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 379 47.54 87.86% -0.554 -0.113 0.474
Memory Fades to Dust 914 38.41 61.49% -1.497 0.5875 -0.877
Power Corrodes the Spirit 879 38.48 60.41% -1.03 0.9082 -0.955
Promising Farmlands 849 37.88 61.13% -1.186 0.8596 -0.911
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 262 47.39 91.22% 0.014 0.4386 0.497
Thriving Communities 898 38.89 62.92% -1.367 0.617 -0.675
Unnatural Proliferation 925 39.88 59.78% -1.528 0.4368 -0.842
Untended Land Crumbles 922 38.69 61.28% -1.334 0.6591 -0.853

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5014 42.33% 39.78 80.97% 0.294 1.0915 0.308
B 5418 42.36% 39.34 81.41% 0.525 1.2681 0.102
C 6859 43.14% 42.96 82.68% 0.535 1.1029 0.724
D 4634 42.61% 39.76 81.57% -0.204 0.5914 0.414
E 4913 43.14% 40.26 79.3% -0.07 0.5775 0.259
F 4134 42.39% 40.22 79.22% -0.139 0.5849 0.264
G 4301 41.9% 40.2 77.4% -0.093 0.6389 0.224
H 3712 44.2% 40.54 81.68% 0.33 1.0425 0.597
East 687 46.64% 38.86 70.74% -0.034 0.7346 -0.031
Northeast 404 47.89% 39.36 69.31% 0.5 1.3599 -0.905
Northwest 322 50.47% 38.28 65.84% -0.69 0.3865 -1.096
Southeast 250 42.51% 36.8 74.4% 0.084 0.7905 0.317
Southwest 235 45.69% 34.58 69.36% 0.434 1.559 -0.474
West 592 52.12% 37.79 68.07% -0.779 0.1753 0.413

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 240 0.0% 21.04 71.25% -2.016 0.1134 0.288
Not Using Events or Tokens 81 60.0% 15.44 48.15% -0.85 -0.6749 -0.246
Skip Initial Invader Actions 580 13.63% 43.97 93.97% 0.07 -0.0728 -0.232
Start of Game Growth 808 18.79% 44.83 91.34% 0.97 0.2099 1.54
Unlimited Undo 2297 39.32% 44.16 87.9% 1.071 0.4675 0.914
Using Tokens but Not Events 2613 20.42% 33.24 90.78% 0.227 0.0705 -0.138

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 952 100.0% 39.53 100.0% -0.41 -0.5247 -0.044
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 414 100.0% 37.82 100.0% -0.704 -0.608 -0.304
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 348 100.0% 36.08 100.0% -0.101 -0.2621 0.591
Downpour Drenches the World 43 100.0% 35.44 100.0% -0.321 -0.0687 0.148
Eyes Watch From the Trees 647 100.0% 39.98 100.0% 0.416 -0.0213 0.107
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 417 100.0% 35.17 100.0% -0.376 -0.8641 0.039
Finder of Paths Unseen 12 100.0% 29.92 100.0% 0.748 1.1117 0.184
Fractured Days Split the Sky 496 100.0% 40.7 100.0% -0.15 -0.0938 -0.0
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 387 100.0% 43.05 100.0% 0.315 0.2834 -0.048
Heart of the Wildfire 275 100.0% 37.19 100.0% 0.043 0.2173 -0.093
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 958 100.0% 44.09 100.0% -0.323 -0.7793 0.484
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 689 100.0% 37.49 100.0% -0.099 -0.3657 -0.112
Many Minds Move as One 368 100.0% 38.26 100.0% 0.832 0.2292 0.57
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 627 100.0% 42.95 100.0% 0.225 0.0401 0.094
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 419 100.0% 37.75 100.0% 0.895 0.916 0.322
River Surges in Sunlight 912 145.09% 49.11 115.57% 0.285 0.2505 0.554
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 619 40.49% 32.02 78.68% 0.555 0.9861 -0.68
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 73 35.62% 48.25 86.3% 0.122 -0.1787 0.172
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 442 100.0% 39.63 100.0% -0.286 -0.3384 -0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 62 936.36% 26.61 441.94% -0.553 -0.1427 -0.431
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 7 14.29% 27.14 85.71% -0.14 -0.1336 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 19 26.32% 46.74 94.74% 0.289 -0.0574 -0.137
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 798 43.2% 37.63 80.2% -0.626 -0.607 0.034
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 307 41.58% 34.63 83.06% 0.347 0.5302 0.312
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 373 100.0% 42.23 100.0% 0.238 -0.0488 0.276
Shifting Memory of Ages 232 100.0% 35.73 100.0% -0.412 -0.3371 -0.233
Shroud of Silent Mist 229 100.0% 32.97 100.0% 0.059 0.2957 -1.013
Starlight Seeks its Form 155 100.0% 41.68 100.0% 0.401 0.2612 0.476
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 610 100.0% 39.44 100.0% -0.441 -0.6226 0.199
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 370 100.0% 41.03 100.0% 0.554 0.7391 0.635
Thunderspeaker 449 100.0% 38.59 100.0% -0.919 -0.8547 -0.582
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 312 100.0% 32.26 100.0% -0.415 -0.506 -0.684
Vital Strength of the Earth 194 230.54% 31.78 144.33% -0.563 0.2452 -0.304
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 28 39.29% 38.61 89.29% 0.125 0.5119 -0.033
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 422 39.95% 31.78 80.33% 0.362 1.5364 -0.465
Volcano Looming High 360 100.0% 35.99 100.0% 0.304 0.3 0.054

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 97.91%
Lightning's Boon 93.32%
Raging Storm 84.49%
Shatter Homesteads 98.91%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1365 22.56 10.4%
II 6468 30.98 54.89%
III 10136 34.53 87.01%
IV 8891 37.77 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 142
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8716
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3439
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8847
Lose: Invader deck ran out 42
Lose: Adversary condition 1928
Win: Sacrifice victory 51
Lose: Scenario condition 387
Win: Scenario condition 192
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3022
Lose: Spirit destroyed 94

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.609 Win Model: -0.269

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.072 Win Model: 0.322
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 18116 45.05% 42.0 78.79%
2 5251 44.84% 39.68 81.47%
3 2040 41.63% 39.18 81.27%
4 1271 35.39% 39.23 81.04%
5 29 27.59% 32.21 89.66%
6 153 30.46% 33.99 79.74%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)