Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 35.71% 27.36 92.86% -0.212 0.2841 0.0
Blitz 0 162 54.94% 28.7 67.28% -0.487 -0.0439 -1.06
Dahan Insurrection 4 190 24.21% 54.62 72.63% -0.96 -0.8624 -0.552
Despicable Theft 2 52 40.38% 37.71 82.69% -0.418 0.0808 0.182
Elemental Invocation 1 139 49.64% 29.61 69.06% -0.335 0.2111 -0.36
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1592 23.81% 43.36 60.11% -1.295 -1.0635 -1.635
Powers Long Forgotten 1 84 54.76% 32.88 67.86% 0.198 0.6054 -0.36
Rituals of Terror 3 55 58.18% 41.55 69.09% 0.394 0.1583 0.226
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 37 69.44% 39.81 70.27% -0.373 -0.1465 0.226
Second Wave 0 788 39.36% 33.16 81.47% -0.199 0.4931 -0.105
The Great River 3 75 40.0% 35.07 62.67% -0.237 1.3447 -1.169
Varied Terrains 2 12 41.67% 46.17 100.0% 0.119 0.9055 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 87 36.78% 33.52 72.41% 0.0 0.8809 -1.153

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18782 45.06% 42.08 78.99% 0.013 0.6755 0.018
1 Thematic 601 46.9% 34.7 71.38% -0.038 1.0187 -1.05
2 Archipelago 27 25.93% 42.74 92.59% 0.243 0.7141 0.248
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3529 46.42% 39.48 80.59% -0.154 0.3642 0.306
2 Coastline 702 37.87% 43.3 85.47% 0.694 0.8948 0.292
2 Fragment 131 54.96% 43.61 77.1% 0.293 0.5908 0.518
2 Heart 40 47.5% 32.98 85.0% 0.0 0.4606 -0.485
2 Opposite Shores 763 38.37% 38.01 85.71% -0.06 0.479 -0.062
2 Thematic 244 61.89% 36.29 60.66% -1.486 -0.7038 0.215
2 Top to Top 232 48.92% 43.81 83.62% 0.466 0.5939 -0.366
3 Archipelago 17 58.82% 39.47 76.47% 0.078 -0.1403 -0.78
3 Coastline 20 45.0% 37.45 65.0% 0.0 -0.5071 0.459
3 Other 186 17.2% 30.6 93.01% 0.589 -0.0751 0.36
3 Round (Default) 1929 44.0% 40.38 80.77% 0.153 0.4576 0.204
3 Sunrise 6 50.0% 45.67 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.462
3 Thematic 57 56.14% 38.44 75.44% 0.0 0.208 -0.009
4 Archipelago 13 38.46% 45.38 100.0% 0.311 0.2734 0.311
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 38.33 66.67% 0.0 -0.0373 0.07
4 Leaf 7 71.43% 35.0 71.43% 0.0 -0.1019 0.0
4 Other 65 30.77% 34.54 84.62% 0.038 -0.6758 0.401
4 Thematic 164 43.21% 45.15 68.9% -0.041 0.0632 0.063
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1086 34.6% 38.59 82.6% 0.176 0.2537 0.33
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 24.5 50.0% -0.14 -0.2376 0.0
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.5876 0.0
5 Other 54 41.51% 37.7 83.33% 0.103 -0.4134 0.955
5 Thematic 4 0.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.0 -0.2873 0.0
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 33.5 66.67% 0.0 -0.1464 -1.331
6 Other 19 26.32% 32.21 84.21% 0.065 0.1101 0.58
6 Star 17 17.65% 40.12 82.35% -0.372 0.3988 -0.509
6 Thematic 88 35.63% 37.51 80.68% 0.258 0.4993 -0.645
6 Two Centers (Default) 72 32.39% 33.14 77.78% -0.059 0.1319 -0.544
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 25.5 50.0% -0.615 -0.4666 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 921 40.32 63.52% -0.813 1.1576 -0.888
Aid From Lesser Spirits 806 43.33 68.86% -0.589 1.1889 -0.496
All Things Weaken 971 38.93 61.38% -1.334 0.7153 -0.821
Back Against the Wall 757 42.94 66.97% -0.813 1.1262 -0.675
Disintegrating Ecosystem 819 38.16 59.1% -2.371 -0.2428 -0.958
Downward Spiral 1008 39.12 67.06% -0.576 1.3856 -0.719
Erosion of Will 894 39.68 59.28% -1.212 0.8698 -0.902
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 422 47.36 87.2% -0.611 -0.1095 0.417
Memory Fades to Dust 974 38.11 61.19% -1.583 0.5584 -0.919
Power Corrodes the Spirit 950 38.76 61.37% -0.152 1.8284 -0.867
Promising Farmlands 903 37.98 61.57% -1.22 0.8019 -0.9
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 287 46.24 90.24% -0.279 0.2179 0.343
Thriving Communities 976 38.92 62.91% -0.952 1.1068 -0.63
Unnatural Proliferation 1007 39.7 59.88% -1.273 0.6836 -0.808
Untended Land Crumbles 994 38.29 60.76% -1.321 0.7125 -0.869

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5434 42.59% 39.89 81.05% 0.13 0.8664 0.27
B 5822 42.51% 39.39 81.36% 0.688 1.3847 0.077
C 7443 43.21% 42.9 82.65% 0.222 0.692 0.709
D 4948 42.71% 39.72 81.51% 0.192 0.9017 0.362
E 5288 43.3% 40.27 79.07% 0.172 0.7162 0.271
F 4482 42.63% 40.22 79.03% -0.064 0.5976 0.256
G 4576 42.13% 40.13 77.51% 0.121 0.7521 0.224
H 4003 44.57% 40.58 81.54% 0.15 0.815 0.506
East 759 47.75% 38.7 69.3% 0.318 0.9793 0.082
Northeast 443 47.06% 39.63 69.75% -0.772 -0.112 -0.76
Northwest 360 49.3% 38.58 66.94% -0.421 0.1894 -0.927
Southeast 277 42.7% 37.44 75.09% 0.131 0.6621 0.119
Southwest 264 45.98% 35.55 71.21% -0.318 0.6503 -0.45
West 661 52.74% 37.63 66.87% -0.244 0.5616 0.308

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 281 0.0% 24.15 74.38% -0.696 1.5334 0.417
Not Using Events or Tokens 89 59.09% 15.39 49.44% -0.858 -0.6317 -0.251
Skip Initial Invader Actions 637 13.73% 44.22 94.19% 1.014 0.0339 -0.396
Start of Game Growth 894 19.26% 44.88 91.28% 0.165 -0.2922 1.207
Unlimited Undo 2518 39.76% 44.14 88.24% 0.678 0.1266 0.945
Using Tokens but Not Events 2827 21.24% 33.38 90.56% -0.173 -0.0183 -0.099

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1029 100.0% 39.51 100.0% -0.117 -0.1923 0.048
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 448 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -1.379 -1.3008 -0.302
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 377 100.0% 36.16 100.0% -0.049 -0.2735 0.414
Downpour Drenches the World 80 100.0% 38.83 100.0% 0.686 0.9511 0.334
Eyes Watch From the Trees 705 100.0% 39.85 100.0% 0.166 -0.3375 0.18
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 455 100.0% 35.73 100.0% 0.34 -0.2461 0.112
Finder of Paths Unseen 27 100.0% 33.52 100.0% -0.612 -0.2565 -0.261
Fractured Days Split the Sky 502 100.0% 40.66 100.0% -0.452 -0.3705 0.001
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 452 100.0% 42.65 100.0% -0.562 -0.657 -0.065
Heart of the Wildfire 290 100.0% 37.31 100.0% -0.238 0.1677 -0.147
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1035 100.0% 44.45 100.0% 0.634 0.0307 0.542
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 733 100.0% 37.79 100.0% 0.149 -0.0024 0.067
Many Minds Move as One 402 100.0% 37.64 100.0% -0.135 -0.7213 0.388
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 667 100.0% 42.81 100.0% 0.048 -0.1215 0.111
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 454 100.0% 37.73 100.0% -0.274 -0.3305 0.405
River Surges in Sunlight 960 147.31% 49.42 116.88% 0.964 0.8895 0.591
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 650 40.09% 31.74 78.77% -0.269 0.1569 -0.695
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 160 43.17% 50.26 85.0% 0.83 0.4894 0.082
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 461 100.0% 39.68 100.0% 0.506 0.3122 -0.165
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 64 953.16% 26.13 451.56% -0.36 0.1143 -0.409
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 22 45.45% 33.0 86.36% 0.437 0.6165 -0.87
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 39 38.46% 44.23 89.74% 0.006 0.0615 0.682
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 817 43.3% 37.55 80.29% 0.394 0.3711 0.116
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 320 42.72% 34.04 82.19% -0.657 -0.541 0.349
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 413 100.0% 42.79 100.0% 0.428 0.2369 0.394
Shifting Memory of Ages 262 100.0% 35.73 100.0% -0.278 -0.0631 -0.174
Shroud of Silent Mist 248 100.0% 33.28 100.0% -0.048 0.0861 -0.946
Starlight Seeks its Form 207 100.0% 42.33 100.0% -0.096 -0.2108 0.422
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 654 100.0% 40.0 100.0% -0.056 -0.295 0.178
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 398 100.0% 41.27 100.0% 1.214 1.3442 0.683
Thunderspeaker 492 100.0% 39.13 100.0% 0.078 0.0603 -0.445
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 332 100.0% 32.08 100.0% -0.798 -1.0131 -0.731
Vital Strength of the Earth 229 219.33% 31.37 141.92% -0.26 0.6385 -0.358
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 43 32.56% 39.26 86.05% 0.139 0.5623 -0.065
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 437 40.42% 31.52 79.41% -0.585 0.5289 -0.552
Volcano Looming High 386 100.0% 36.14 100.0% 0.075 0.0544 0.006

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 97.87%
Lightning's Boon 93.26%
Raging Storm 84.32%
Shatter Homesteads 98.89%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1505 22.65 10.63%
II 6973 31.08 55.0%
III 10849 34.66 87.05%
IV 9554 37.91 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 160
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9338
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3717
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9506
Lose: Invader deck ran out 43
Lose: Adversary condition 2082
Win: Sacrifice victory 55
Lose: Scenario condition 416
Win: Scenario condition 201
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3263
Lose: Spirit destroyed 100

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.907 Win Model: -0.204

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.028 Win Model: -0.087
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 19437 45.15% 41.86 78.76%
2 5659 45.23% 39.85 81.18%
3 2210 41.93% 39.39 81.45%
4 1332 35.78% 39.23 81.08%
5 40 23.08% 32.9 85.0%
6 203 32.34% 35.37 79.31%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)