Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 27.59% 26.52 82.76% 0.345 0.2666 -0.53
Blitz 0 176 54.55% 28.38 67.61% 0.666 0.813 -0.941
Dahan Insurrection 4 206 25.73% 54.33 72.33% 0.35 0.143 -0.297
Despicable Theft 2 56 41.07% 37.8 80.36% -0.322 0.3611 0.329
Elemental Invocation 1 149 48.32% 28.6 66.44% -1.04 -0.3086 -0.339
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1721 23.01% 41.61 58.34% -0.29 -0.8964 -1.556
Powers Long Forgotten 1 91 52.75% 31.52 64.84% -1.273 -0.7848 -0.417
Rituals of Terror 3 56 57.14% 41.59 69.64% 0.156 0.2615 0.288
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 38 70.27% 39.74 71.05% 0.0 0.9919 0.227
Second Wave 0 831 39.5% 32.93 80.99% 0.012 0.0743 -0.085
The Great River 3 82 37.8% 33.59 60.98% -0.805 0.5435 -1.105
Varied Terrains 2 19 36.84% 39.16 84.21% 0.296 0.8583 -0.457
Ward the Shores 2 118 30.51% 26.4 57.63% -1.676 -0.4666 -1.114

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19917 45.18% 41.72 78.36% 0.271 0.4804 0.074
1 Thematic 621 46.52% 34.56 71.34% 0.021 0.6196 -0.91
2 Archipelago 28 25.0% 42.21 92.86% 0.195 0.5522 0.293
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3850 45.98% 38.73 79.38% 0.051 0.2115 0.28
2 Coastline 785 35.93% 41.73 83.31% 0.288 0.3484 0.292
2 Fragment 145 53.79% 42.28 76.55% 0.3 0.2368 0.35
2 Heart 44 45.45% 33.25 84.09% 0.223 -0.0147 -0.526
2 Opposite Shores 828 38.5% 37.34 83.45% -0.013 0.1206 0.01
2 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.457 0.7862 0.0
2 Thematic 279 59.86% 35.16 58.42% -0.351 0.2852 0.349
2 Top to Top 255 49.21% 43.58 82.75% 0.73 0.7709 -0.212
3 Archipelago 17 58.82% 39.47 76.47% 0.0 -1.0866 -0.758
3 Coastline 21 42.86% 35.67 61.9% -0.525 -1.0235 0.468
3 Other 280 14.29% 22.19 66.07% -1.998 -1.8886 0.3
3 Round (Default) 2103 43.31% 39.68 79.51% 0.229 0.188 0.141
3 Sunrise 6 50.0% 45.67 100.0% 0.0 0.1962 0.46
3 Thematic 59 54.24% 37.66 74.58% 0.085 0.1213 -0.23
4 Archipelago 13 38.46% 45.38 100.0% 0.0 -0.2146 0.349
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 28.75 50.0% -0.133 -0.0111 0.08
4 Leaf 7 71.43% 35.0 71.43% 0.114 -0.2617 0.0
4 Other 67 29.85% 33.51 82.09% -0.001 -0.8505 0.487
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.267 -0.1175 0.0
4 Thematic 166 42.68% 44.61 68.07% -0.869 -0.8861 -0.003
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1181 34.19% 37.5 80.02% -0.582 -0.7689 0.082
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 24.5 50.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.0
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.947 0.9037 0.477
5 Other 61 37.29% 36.41 81.97% 0.425 -0.0838 0.934
5 Thematic 6 0.0% 23.17 66.67% -0.45 -0.7804 -0.272
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 33.5 66.67% 0.0 -0.305 -1.261
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 35.0 50.0% -0.266 -0.9098 0.0
6 Other 25 32.0% 30.92 84.0% 0.749 0.3547 0.551
6 Star 20 15.0% 35.2 75.0% -0.05 0.4254 -0.514
6 Thematic 103 34.31% 35.45 76.7% 0.236 0.6348 -0.582
6 Two Centers (Default) 93 31.87% 31.18 76.34% -0.134 -0.0903 -0.386
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 25.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.5893 0.0
7 Other 2 0.0% 14.0 50.0% -0.097 -0.8694 -0.318

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 977 40.29 63.97% 0.07 0.3408 -0.775
Aid From Lesser Spirits 845 43.24 68.4% -0.065 -0.026 -0.446
All Things Weaken 1032 38.58 60.27% -0.762 -0.3013 -0.801
Attenuated Essence 27 31.89 40.74% -0.905 -0.6995 -0.726
Back Against the Wall 801 42.49 66.67% -0.329 -0.1672 -0.594
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 22 40.68 63.64% -0.126 0.2885 -1.229
Burn Brightest Before the End 10 38.8 60.0% -0.241 0.0638 -0.589
Disintegrating Ecosystem 877 37.81 58.61% -0.833 -0.3061 -0.871
Downward Spiral 1054 38.83 66.22% -0.69 -0.337 -0.655
Erosion of Will 936 39.64 59.29% -0.431 -0.0226 -0.826
Intensifying Exploitation 27 40.7 66.67% 0.122 0.509 -0.919
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 448 46.57 86.38% -0.142 -0.6672 0.479
Memory Fades to Dust 1026 37.88 60.62% -0.412 0.0688 -0.856
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1002 38.56 61.48% -0.288 0.0163 -0.788
Promising Farmlands 945 37.8 60.95% -0.985 -0.3986 -0.805
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 41.12 70.59% 0.274 0.4532 -0.444
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 30.6 33.33% -0.796 -0.2625 -0.928
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 302 46.6 90.07% 0.758 0.0798 0.435
The Border of Life and Death 10 25.3 50.0% -0.399 -0.5283 -0.682
Thriving Communities 1031 38.37 61.69% -0.762 -0.2688 -0.586
Thriving Crops 13 27.08 46.15% -0.497 -0.4089 -0.829
Unnatural Proliferation 1078 39.68 60.11% -0.136 0.1606 -0.719
Untended Land Crumbles 1047 37.99 60.65% -0.219 0.1391 -0.821

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5894 42.28% 39.11 79.52% -0.333 0.5074 0.207
B 6393 41.52% 38.09 78.98% -0.186 0.5927 0.052
C 8125 42.52% 41.74 80.62% -0.013 0.6408 0.689
D 5345 42.7% 39.1 80.11% -0.09 0.7092 0.294
E 5789 42.52% 39.01 76.89% 0.294 0.9224 0.242
F 4829 42.27% 39.6 78.03% 0.041 0.7604 0.265
G 4909 41.97% 39.71 76.94% 0.4 1.1415 0.209
H 4316 43.9% 39.99 80.51% -0.05 0.598 0.448
East 820 47.0% 37.9 68.05% 0.015 0.6195 -0.014
Northeast 479 45.82% 38.46 68.27% 0.286 1.1666 -0.853
Northwest 392 47.83% 37.21 64.8% -0.772 -0.0992 -0.764
Southeast 303 41.67% 36.27 72.94% -0.18 0.4559 0.36
Southwest 291 43.75% 34.05 68.73% -0.177 0.9871 -0.499
West 720 51.05% 36.47 65.0% -0.499 0.4648 0.245

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 311 0.0% 23.08 71.06% -1.338 -0.4551 0.474
Not Using Events or Tokens 99 54.17% 14.47 47.47% -0.473 -0.1409 -0.253
Skip Initial Invader Actions 694 13.96% 43.08 93.66% 0.691 0.1563 -0.717
Start of Game Growth 964 19.41% 43.72 90.35% 0.379 0.0489 1.171
Unlimited Undo 2769 41.02% 43.75 86.78% 0.242 0.2202 0.905
Using Tokens but Not Events 3186 20.68% 32.06 86.75% 0.085 0.0314 -0.132

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1116 100.0% 38.52 100.0% 0.485 0.3257 0.104
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 494 100.0% 36.19 100.0% -0.136 -0.014 -0.138
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 420 100.0% 35.69 100.0% 0.868 0.6999 0.165
Downpour Drenches the World 124 100.0% 34.35 100.0% -0.252 -0.0729 0.143
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 184 100.0% 19.64 100.0% 0.18 -0.5415 -0.589
Eyes Watch From the Trees 759 100.0% 38.68 100.0% 0.569 -0.02 0.153
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 493 100.0% 35.14 100.0% -0.113 -0.5837 0.146
Finder of Paths Unseen 42 100.0% 28.52 100.0% -0.758 -0.0635 -0.254
Fractured Days Split the Sky 532 100.0% 39.53 100.0% -0.502 0.1822 0.061
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 520 100.0% 40.65 100.0% -0.054 -0.1554 -0.098
Heart of the Wildfire 309 100.0% 36.47 100.0% 0.061 0.3052 -0.244
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1099 100.0% 43.63 100.0% 0.145 -0.305 0.418
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 799 100.0% 36.73 100.0% -0.147 -0.2925 -0.035
Many Minds Move as One 436 100.0% 36.97 100.0% -0.051 -0.2721 0.503
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 721 100.0% 40.96 100.0% -0.932 -0.9417 0.063
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 495 100.0% 36.62 100.0% -0.621 -0.7631 0.465
River Surges in Sunlight 1017 151.43% 49.0 120.55% 0.537 0.5399 0.603
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 679 39.38% 31.51 78.35% -0.024 0.2459 -0.637
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 243 40.91% 45.18 74.49% -0.167 -0.2964 -0.06
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 500 100.0% 38.58 100.0% 0.539 0.3252 -0.044
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 66 961.45% 26.18 471.21% -0.083 0.3529 -0.334
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 35 40.0% 29.31 82.86% 0.539 0.5387 -0.895
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 54 37.74% 38.26 83.33% 0.442 0.4338 0.506
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 853 43.4% 37.35 79.95% 0.504 0.432 0.204
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 329 43.08% 33.86 82.07% -0.063 -0.0044 0.469
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 436 105.28% 42.04 102.98% -0.13 -0.2585 0.496
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 25 8.0% 19.76 48.0% -0.367 -0.73 0.556
Shifting Memory of Ages 361 100.0% 28.38 100.0% -1.009 -0.6014 -0.207
Shroud of Silent Mist 277 100.0% 31.89 100.0% -0.129 0.1861 -0.895
Starlight Seeks its Form 251 100.0% 40.5 100.0% 0.444 0.1714 0.302
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 712 100.0% 39.24 100.0% 0.336 -0.1593 0.111
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 445 100.0% 39.53 100.0% -0.382 -0.3519 0.609
Thunderspeaker 521 101.54% 38.67 100.77% 0.851 0.8317 -0.341
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 11 27.27% 17.73 63.64% 0.21 0.1469 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 359 100.0% 31.6 100.0% -0.438 -0.3762 -0.612
Vital Strength of the Earth 255 215.91% 29.27 143.14% -1.024 -0.4716 -0.382
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 67 37.31% 36.85 79.1% 0.64 0.8956 -0.082
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 451 40.27% 31.2 78.71% -0.827 0.0692 -0.408
Volcano Looming High 423 100.0% 35.74 100.0% 0.658 0.6684 0.135

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 97.8%
Lightning's Boon 93.28%
Raging Storm 84.33%
Shatter Homesteads 98.9%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1983 21.03 9.03%
II 7455 31.04 54.65%
III 11462 34.74 87.02%
IV 10116 38.02 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 179
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9863
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3945
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10064
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 428
Lose: Invader deck ran out 44
Lose: Adversary condition 2207
Win: Sacrifice victory 59
Lose: Scenario condition 430
Win: Scenario condition 217
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3470
Lose: Spirit destroyed 110

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.167 Win Model: -0.081

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.73 Win Model: -0.176
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 20597 45.25% 41.5 78.15%
2 6205 44.64% 39.03 79.68%
3 2483 40.17% 37.52 77.61%
4 1433 35.07% 38.15 78.86%
5 47 20.0% 31.04 80.85%
6 251 31.85% 33.06 76.1%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)