Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 42.86% 24.48 80.95% 0.232 0.0296 0.0
Blitz 0 2280 49.16% 31.97 66.97% -0.624 -0.3665 -0.841
Dahan Insurrection 4 4007 36.43% 58.56 66.56% -0.717 -0.3037 -0.09
Despicable Theft 2 147 60.54% 31.1 62.59% -0.381 0.0647 -0.307
Elemental Invocation 1 297 59.26% 32.01 60.27% -0.474 0.0116 -1.466
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10054 9.25% 50.79 75.63% -1.067 -0.7618 0.197
Powers Long Forgotten 1 535 53.21% 36.87 63.18% -0.788 -0.6066 -1.063
Rituals of Terror 3 585 69.47% 32.82 44.79% -1.477 -1.3562 -1.231
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 317 80.76% 33.61 43.22% -0.442 -0.0271 -1.853
Second Wave 0 6482 44.0% 29.47 78.54% -0.534 0.0319 -0.361
The Great River 3 312 36.01% 35.74 60.9% -0.096 1.3014 -2.233
Varied Terrains 2 22 59.09% 38.36 63.64% -0.47 0.0562 -0.4
Ward the Shores 2 2949 58.71% 31.77 62.53% -1.044 0.1179 -0.959

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 100118 64.87% 32.47 69.74% -0.424 0.5919 -0.382
1 Thematic 5666 57.47% 40.92 54.34% -0.121 1.0512 -1.105
2 Archipelago 175 58.38% 35.33 66.29% -1.498 -0.514 -1.398
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 45565 48.15% 34.55 78.15% -0.074 0.6774 0.035
2 Coastline 8168 49.3% 33.61 78.06% -0.228 0.3742 -0.123
2 Fragment 1262 54.48% 30.07 74.56% 0.869 1.3171 -0.071
2 Heart 678 56.12% 28.16 75.22% 0.152 0.6903 -0.625
2 Opposite Shores 13931 44.44% 32.55 78.24% -0.446 0.5461 -0.778
2 Thematic 4573 40.35% 45.33 68.9% -0.372 0.3267 -0.679
2 Top to Top 2744 48.41% 35.52 77.92% -0.038 0.4723 -0.121
3 Archipelago 122 36.89% 39.48 87.7% -0.354 -0.1812 -0.718
3 Coastline 282 38.55% 37.1 76.24% 0.489 -0.2938 0.537
3 Other 1415 42.07% 36.58 82.19% -0.129 -0.1648 0.167
3 Round (Default) 29217 37.4% 36.72 80.69% -0.318 0.2768 -0.456
3 Sunrise 191 41.27% 45.22 80.63% -0.161 -0.1246 0.359
3 Thematic 1261 35.45% 39.09 75.73% 0.248 0.2101 -0.883
4 Archipelago 96 31.91% 40.76 86.46% 0.046 -0.6654 -1.295
4 Coastline 211 17.79% 49.07 82.94% 0.355 0.4715 0.584
4 Leaf 130 39.37% 35.48 76.15% 0.117 0.6796 -1.162
4 Other 873 37.81% 35.49 81.9% -1.051 -1.3046 0.035
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 6172 28.19% 54.55 75.78% -0.952 -0.4229 -0.212
4 Trapezoid (Default) 21903 33.67% 38.64 81.08% -0.401 -0.4277 -0.457
5 Archipelago 41 43.9% 44.17 80.49% 0.009 -0.5701 -0.961
5 Coastline 49 4.26% 64.22 100.0% 0.631 0.066 1.008
5 Other 453 36.92% 44.42 89.18% -0.107 0.0615 0.487
5 Thematic 107 24.3% 64.25 90.65% -0.432 -0.7086 1.313
6 Archipelago 39 35.14% 44.77 87.18% 0.173 -0.0831 -0.68
6 Coastline 29 10.0% 51.93 96.55% -0.161 -0.7498 0.32
6 Other 217 19.05% 40.49 81.11% -0.391 0.4188 -0.991
6 Star 67 34.85% 38.63 67.16% -0.329 0.4543 -1.081
6 Thematic 305 21.05% 43.62 79.67% -1.23 -1.5086 -0.365
6 Two Centers (Default) 313 24.17% 36.25 85.94% -1.015 -1.1087 -1.096
7 Archipelago 9 33.33% 42.78 88.89% 0.1 -0.4776 -0.707
7 Other 7 60.0% 49.0 71.43% 0.551 -0.6007 0.43

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8959 34.37 58.3% -1.446 0.4569 -1.172
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7826 36.81 62.0% -1.381 0.3488 -0.997
All Things Weaken 2938 30.63 49.12% -1.891 0.0948 -1.376
Back Against the Wall 6705 32.15 53.51% -1.821 -0.0045 -1.438
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8544 31.86 55.65% -1.907 0.1431 -1.37
Downward Spiral 24581 28.86 64.87% -1.735 0.2585 -1.082
Erosion of Will 8853 33.42 56.25% -1.608 0.4753 -1.306
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1231 38.17 81.15% -0.274 0.1667 -0.597
Memory Fades to Dust 24213 27.97 59.66% -1.987 0.0967 -1.291
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2988 30.54 54.82% -1.832 0.1058 -1.449
Promising Farmlands 8875 32.3 56.5% -1.899 0.1468 -1.372
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 759 39.83 85.24% -0.23 0.195 -0.11
Thriving Communities 3028 31.44 55.55% -1.701 0.2823 -1.208
Tipping Point 4261 33.63 58.6% 0.042 -0.0759 -1.184
Unnatural Proliferation 3219 32.87 56.29% -1.886 0.0788 -1.27
Untended Land Crumbles 3133 29.99 51.61% -1.833 0.1604 -1.392

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 78964 46.12% 34.04 77.25% -0.43 0.3674 0.008
B 81821 45.8% 35.15 77.65% -0.274 0.4697 0.315
C 81384 46.33% 34.96 77.62% -0.292 0.2768 0.116
D 95444 47.14% 34.62 76.82% -0.261 0.5346 -0.048
E 17491 45.68% 36.98 77.3% 0.211 0.8576 -0.033
F 28777 45.66% 37.34 77.79% -0.354 0.3702 0.002
G 27395 45.86% 37.59 78.07% -0.118 0.6134 0.07
H 27568 45.17% 37.23 78.09% -0.169 0.5433 0.079
East 14559 37.79% 48.24 69.34% -0.639 0.1295 -0.38
Northeast 10497 34.73% 50.36 71.64% -0.73 0.1303 -0.35
Northwest 9156 32.02% 51.24 72.9% -0.4 0.6764 -0.188
Southeast 1881 42.21% 41.26 65.71% -1.328 -0.6214 -1.718
Southwest 1585 38.11% 40.52 70.91% -0.362 0.7633 -0.618
West 13283 36.06% 48.52 70.89% -0.428 0.526 -0.424

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12693 0.0% 19.67 70.95% -2.486 -0.357 -0.957
Not Using Events or Tokens 55887 54.65% 27.43 75.43% 0.031 0.2059 0.075
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7683 16.82% 40.61 89.56% 0.516 0.3737 -0.199
Start of Game Growth 12211 19.37% 39.69 88.8% 0.661 -0.099 0.2
Unlimited Undo 22401 41.29% 36.88 81.86% 0.344 -0.2598 0.567
Using Tokens but Not Events 21116 46.04% 33.16 78.03% 0.231 0.0749 0.1

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 23845 100.0% 40.27 100.0% 0.476 0.3614 0.037
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 18471 100.0% 32.82 100.0% -0.583 -0.4872 -0.665
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3431 100.0% 34.1 100.0% -0.622 -0.7833 -0.639
Downpour Drenches the World 298 100.0% 40.54 100.0% -0.309 -0.0562 -0.078
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6022 100.0% 36.98 100.0% 0.044 -0.3933 0.061
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4598 100.0% 36.56 100.0% -0.028 -0.5155 -0.364
Finder of Paths Unseen 339 100.0% 39.83 100.0% -0.1 0.2633 0.041
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1009 100.0% 43.18 100.0% 0.45 0.5056 -0.092
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 571 100.0% 39.1 100.0% 0.046 0.0145 -0.312
Heart of the Wildfire 8584 100.0% 37.68 100.0% -0.251 -0.0769 0.342
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15611 100.0% 40.4 100.0% 0.05 -0.4066 0.331
Lightning's Swift Strike 16899 111.95% 37.44 102.93% 0.208 0.4821 0.156
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 80 33.33% 41.54 85.0% 0.281 -0.4961 0.806
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 627 43.04% 42.95 78.95% 0.892 0.2489 0.297
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2367 30.65% 52.92 85.17% 0.232 -0.0341 0.656
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 5837 100.0% 36.55 100.0% -0.251 -0.5176 -0.405
Many Minds Move as One 1899 100.0% 38.32 100.0% 0.303 -0.2996 0.078
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4166 100.0% 40.15 100.0% -0.045 -0.0242 0.272
River Surges in Sunlight 44592 104.67% 39.03 101.9% -0.153 -0.1869 0.048
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 3259 40.11% 36.6 76.22% 0.125 0.5566 -0.652
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 269 43.35% 44.25 73.61% -0.351 -0.6514 -0.54
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 13515 100.0% 41.2 100.0% -0.16 -0.2124 -0.096
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7657 107.47% 34.62 102.57% 0.83 1.2396 0.269
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 32 25.0% 48.0 81.25% 0.093 0.1003 1.313
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 54 33.33% 43.26 90.74% 0.605 0.2587 0.69
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 448 45.17% 35.44 77.23% 0.13 0.1493 -0.53
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 457 40.09% 35.79 81.62% 0.284 0.4666 0.393
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8084 100.0% 40.86 100.0% 1.052 0.7656 0.624
Shifting Memory of Ages 780 100.0% 37.36 100.0% -0.114 -0.0392 -0.168
Shroud of Silent Mist 1015 100.0% 34.03 100.0% -0.467 -0.2302 -0.346
Starlight Seeks its Form 768 100.0% 40.1 100.0% -0.385 -0.524 -0.056
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3157 100.0% 36.6 100.0% -0.075 -0.2575 -0.68
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 9314 100.0% 39.24 100.0% 0.134 0.3186 0.146
Thunderspeaker 13962 100.0% 38.02 100.0% -0.122 -0.0576 -0.106
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1774 100.0% 36.08 100.0% -0.6 -0.6903 -0.082
Vital Strength of the Earth 9866 102.12% 34.04 101.06% -0.578 0.2302 0.133
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 54 28.3% 47.46 87.04% 0.435 0.8214 0.743
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 309 43.93% 32.77 68.28% -0.329 0.8457 -1.187
Volcano Looming High 1759 100.0% 36.51 100.0% -0.945 -0.9497 -0.368

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.61%
Grasping Tide 92.25%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.68%
Tidal Boon 77.36%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23075 22.56 15.66%
II 73904 30.98 59.19%
III 95304 34.53 86.59%
IV 54147 37.77 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3610
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 79258
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 40222
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 53273
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1419
Lose: Adversary condition 16076
Win: Sacrifice victory 1341
Lose: Scenario condition 3288
Win: Scenario condition 6038
Lose: Blight pool ran out 40872
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1033

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.76 Win Model: -0.139

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.554 Win Model: 0.324
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 106459 64.5% 32.98 68.94%
2 77030 47.15% 34.62 77.56%
3 32240 37.38% 36.88 80.58%
4 29503 32.41% 42.05 80.09%
5 230 24.53% 44.56 86.96%
6 968 22.67% 40.64 82.13%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)