Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2508 51.43% 31.12 -2.178 67.03% -0.675 -0.1091
Dahan Insurrection 4 4356 37.58% 57.33 9.158 66.18% -0.687 -0.2864
Despicable Theft 2 89 61.8% 31.04 -1.123 66.29% -0.691 -0.4174
Elemental Invocation 1 210 59.05% 31.85 -2.2 55.71% -0.954 -0.4514
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 11839 9.7% 48.74 4.833 75.96% -0.774 -0.409
Powers Long Forgotten 1 800 53.65% 37.84 0.473 66.38% -0.611 -0.1644
Rituals of Terror 3 666 64.23% 34.49 0.936 51.35% -1.234 -0.5889
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 438 83.98% 33.41 -0.6 45.66% -1.081 -0.434
Second Wave 0 7701 46.21% 29.72 -1.852 77.08% -0.467 -0.0376
The Great River 3 222 33.78% 35.37 0.015 59.91% -1.903 -0.4303
Ward the Shores 2 3636 57.18% 32.17 -0.725 63.42% -0.801 0.2308

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 86677 65.08% 32.64 -0.859 69.74% -1.445 -1.3589
1 Thematic 4953 55.95% 41.52 1.417 57.0% -1.701 -1.4238
2 Archipelago 42 54.76% 41.43 2.105 59.52% -1.34 -1.3332
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 39447 47.89% 34.57 0.129 78.18% -0.532 -0.5064
2 Coastline 6984 49.37% 33.64 -0.199 78.44% -0.498 -0.5231
2 Fragment 1080 55.01% 30.12 -1.606 74.17% -0.748 -0.5253
2 Heart 574 56.13% 28.43 -2.218 75.78% -0.7 -0.5998
2 Opposite Shores 11954 44.0% 32.35 -0.865 78.7% -0.582 -0.5168
2 Thematic 3996 40.82% 44.9 2.573 68.42% -1.006 -1.0725
2 Top to Top 2377 47.41% 35.33 0.377 78.33% -0.367 -0.4361
3 Archipelago 23 47.83% 48.52 5.295 73.91% -0.229 0.5755
3 Coastline 227 36.2% 37.64 0.372 77.09% 0.031 -0.1194
3 Other 1241 43.38% 37.14 0.652 81.71% 0.043 0.2157
3 Round (Default) 24812 37.36% 36.27 0.16 80.79% 0.13 0.0907
3 Sunrise 162 39.75% 47.26 3.874 79.63% 0.579 0.3188
3 Thematic 1104 34.99% 39.14 0.08 75.36% -0.354 -0.7202
4 Archipelago 22 31.82% 42.32 2.097 95.45% 1.162 1.7094
4 Coastline 180 17.51% 48.59 3.749 81.11% 0.472 0.5915
4 Leaf 108 41.9% 35.27 -1.2 75.93% 0.279 0.3509
4 Other 759 37.97% 36.47 -0.352 81.95% 0.517 0.4481
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 35.4 -0.672 100.0% 0.172 -0.6304
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 -3.191 100.0% 0.322 0.4476
4 Thematic 5596 28.28% 54.69 4.527 75.54% 0.463 -0.5337
4 Trapezoid (Default) 19075 34.2% 38.44 0.221 80.77% 0.575 0.5833
5 Archipelago 23 52.17% 47.78 4.1 73.91% -0.125 1.0346
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 77.0 15.146 100.0% 0.509 0.3197
5 Other 273 40.23% 45.39 3.17 91.94% 1.714 1.2534
5 Thematic 85 21.18% 67.31 9.974 97.65% 2.594 0.2025
6 Archipelago 5 80.0% 58.2 10.223 80.0% 0.42 0.7854
6 Other 1 0.0% 73.0 14.941 100.0% 0.209 0.0318

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7911 34.46 -1.946 58.44% -1.931 0.1381
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6811 36.86 -0.876 61.9% -1.798 0.1152
All Things Weaken 2220 30.0 -3.534 48.29% -2.311 -0.1518
Back Against the Wall 5864 32.19 -2.852 53.51% -2.142 -0.055
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7450 31.99 -3.211 55.89% -2.009 0.2136
Downward Spiral 21518 28.95 -3.126 65.05% -1.783 0.239
Erosion of Will 7712 33.41 -2.453 56.15% -2.038 0.1694
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 903 38.62 0.506 81.73% -0.694 -0.0156
Memory Fades to Dust 21264 27.97 -3.565 59.83% -2.024 0.1904
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2222 30.48 -3.299 55.31% -2.0 0.0213
Promising Farmlands 7784 32.29 -2.973 56.5% -2.014 0.1941
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 550 40.34 1.33 85.82% -0.297 0.1147
Thriving Communities 2266 31.44 -2.924 55.74% -1.959 0.1289
Tipping Point 4259 33.63 -2.444 58.61% -1.873 0.3516
Unnatural Proliferation 2443 33.02 -2.04 57.51% -1.92 0.1609
Untended Land Crumbles 2342 30.03 -3.506 52.09% -2.134 -0.0318

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 33017 53.54% 31.75 -1.092 74.07% -0.068 -0.7556
B 35835 52.85% 34.46 -0.202 75.35% 0.01 -0.7736
C 34735 53.84% 33.73 -0.279 74.88% 0.034 -0.9783
D 53649 51.15% 34.0 -0.348 75.27% 0.05 -0.7269
E 5540 52.31% 34.3 -0.453 73.88% 0.054 -0.8398
F 11806 51.15% 37.33 0.584 75.75% 0.065 -0.7761
G 10748 53.37% 37.08 0.574 75.59% 0.109 -0.7226
H 11110 51.45% 36.28 0.321 76.21% 0.138 -0.7008
East 3472 35.39% 47.76 3.154 69.61% -0.074 -0.65
Northeast 4083 39.64% 50.07 3.804 68.31% 0.107 -0.418
Northwest 3319 36.26% 50.58 4.079 70.62% 0.126 -0.4688
Southeast 482 52.81% 36.21 -1.069 64.11% -0.174 -0.8031
Southwest 391 49.74% 36.84 -1.193 67.01% -0.166 -0.3649
West 3611 44.64% 44.41 1.933 64.91% -0.144 -0.4714

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 10979 0.0% 19.64 -6.16 70.98% -2.212 -0.1592
Not Using Events or Tokens 48449 54.99% 27.5 -3.074 75.54% -0.026 0.1883
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6841 16.76% 40.86 2.208 89.46% 0.372 -0.3148
Start of Game Growth 10666 19.4% 39.73 1.919 88.95% 0.619 0.1504
Unlimited Undo 19421 42.03% 36.86 0.872 81.65% 0.297 -0.1264
Using Tokens but Not Events 17989 47.48% 32.42 -1.364 77.59% 0.045 -0.0055

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 20356 30.69% 40.2 1.35 81.78% 0.103 0.2072
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 16421 52.17% 32.96 -1.167 73.7% -0.311 -0.1135
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2892 36.96% 34.46 -1.212 78.53% -0.21 -0.3234
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4920 30.73% 37.13 0.208 84.0% 0.157 -0.2474
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3906 37.25% 36.33 -0.286 79.98% -0.08 -0.3851
Fractured Days Split the Sky 756 35.24% 43.05 2.02 78.7% -0.18 0.1684
Heart of the Wildfire 7687 51.47% 37.64 -0.109 74.96% -0.02 0.2983
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13749 39.41% 40.18 1.017 80.67% 0.175 -0.1672
Lightning's Swift Strike 16724 37.47% 38.32 0.948 80.39% -0.02 0.2063
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3781 40.2% 36.28 -0.133 80.69% 0.038 -0.2487
Many Minds Move as One 1452 40.49% 38.79 0.809 81.13% 0.177 -0.3557
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3536 34.36% 40.33 1.075 82.24% 0.171 0.1851
River Surges in Sunlight 41044 38.31% 38.61 1.201 79.38% -0.026 0.0946
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 12001 34.72% 41.25 1.083 77.87% -0.152 -0.0493
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7640 45.64% 35.09 -0.159 79.63% -0.056 0.3491
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7128 37.17% 40.6 1.048 80.12% 0.031 -0.0808
Shifting Memory of Ages 244 48.15% 38.56 0.411 75.0% -0.118 0.006
Shroud of Silent Mist 592 47.22% 34.77 -0.625 78.55% 0.009 0.0651
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2632 41.33% 36.92 -0.425 76.14% -0.22 -0.2799
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 7755 33.63% 39.6 1.243 83.13% 0.26 0.4203
Thunderspeaker 12242 36.29% 37.76 0.38 79.01% -0.146 -0.1223
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1468 61.72% 36.79 -0.286 71.46% -0.021 -0.0486
Vital Strength of the Earth 8860 33.34% 34.0 -1.141 78.89% -0.28 0.5638
Volcano Looming High 1075 46.6% 38.65 0.54 78.51% 0.182 0.1926

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.47%
Grasping Tide 92.25%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.6%
Tidal Boon 77.28%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19695 22.37 15.78%
II 63521 30.88 59.2%
III 82120 34.39 86.48%
IV 46462 37.55 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2267
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 49833
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 25188
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 32973
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1241
Lose: Adversary condition 13682
Win: Sacrifice victory 1175
Lose: Scenario condition 2857
Win: Scenario condition 5170
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35168
Lose: Spirit destroyed 906

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.09 Win Model: -0.111

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.438 Win Model: -0.469
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 92097 64.6% 33.16 69.1%
2 66426 46.94% 34.59 77.66%
3 27390 37.33% 36.51 80.6%
4 25885 32.84% 42.08 79.77%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)