Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2233 51.09% 31.49 -2.11 66.23% -0.701 -0.1286
Dahan Insurrection 4 3544 38.47% 57.16 9.015 65.52% -0.689 -0.2887
Elemental Invocation 1 55 43.64% 33.35 -2.092 65.45% -0.787 -0.3215
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10237 9.97% 47.97 4.574 75.66% -0.778 -0.4028
Powers Long Forgotten 1 734 53.71% 38.31 0.584 66.76% -0.578 -0.1308
Rituals of Terror 3 556 63.62% 35.03 1.043 52.16% -1.212 -0.5903
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 407 83.74% 33.47 -0.699 45.21% -1.095 -0.4707
Second Wave 0 6605 46.75% 29.94 -1.791 76.9% -0.463 -0.0446
The Great River 3 140 35.0% 35.96 0.31 60.0% -1.91 -0.4249
Ward the Shores 2 3151 56.98% 32.26 -0.701 63.38% -0.792 0.2386

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 72900 65.25% 32.72 -0.863 69.57% -1.684 -1.3296
1 Thematic 4255 54.63% 42.6 1.853 57.46% -1.884 -1.3869
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 32964 47.77% 34.86 0.19 78.05% -0.613 -0.4235
2 Coastline 5791 49.18% 33.57 -0.247 78.48% -0.581 -0.4465
2 Fragment 913 52.59% 30.47 -1.467 75.36% -0.805 -0.3795
2 Heart 501 56.72% 28.14 -2.369 75.05% -0.841 -0.5505
2 Opposite Shores 9827 44.12% 32.19 -0.953 78.39% -0.677 -0.4508
2 Thematic 3405 41.94% 44.45 2.358 67.93% -1.083 -1.0389
2 Top to Top 2071 47.04% 35.53 0.432 78.08% -0.445 -0.3286
3 Coastline 188 36.26% 37.43 0.173 75.0% -0.014 -0.0522
3 Other 966 43.97% 36.95 0.63 81.57% 0.144 0.5461
3 Round (Default) 20695 37.62% 36.13 0.115 80.42% 0.206 0.237
3 Sunrise 152 39.07% 48.61 4.356 80.26% 0.745 0.4915
3 Thematic 981 33.68% 38.92 0.069 76.45% -0.217 -0.5556
4 Coastline 114 19.82% 42.97 1.394 78.07% 0.564 0.6859
4 Leaf 95 39.78% 35.04 -1.341 73.68% 0.386 0.4659
4 Other 590 37.95% 35.97 -0.632 80.51% 0.643 0.7236
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 35.4 -0.688 100.0% 0.217 -0.5749
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 -3.16 100.0% 0.391 0.5168
4 Thematic 4856 28.85% 54.01 4.343 74.57% 0.69 -0.3881
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15903 34.71% 38.35 0.244 80.61% 0.847 0.8146
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 11.427 100.0% 0.1 0.0503
5 Other 179 35.23% 45.85 3.194 92.74% 1.853 1.636
5 Thematic 49 26.53% 67.22 10.168 97.96% 2.672 -0.0954

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6781 34.63 -1.929 58.13% -1.922 0.1456
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5828 36.9 -0.904 61.5% -1.788 0.1283
All Things Weaken 1510 29.81 -3.643 47.42% -2.325 -0.1646
Back Against the Wall 5033 32.35 -2.82 53.33% -2.126 -0.0335
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6441 32.31 -3.129 55.99% -1.976 0.2458
Downward Spiral 18495 28.98 -3.139 64.93% -1.768 0.2463
Erosion of Will 6579 33.58 -2.412 56.22% -2.01 0.2015
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 602 38.97 0.591 82.06% -0.663 0.0489
Memory Fades to Dust 18137 28.12 -3.529 59.93% -2.0 0.2162
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1522 30.6 -3.291 54.73% -1.998 0.0219
Promising Farmlands 6756 32.24 -3.046 56.01% -2.012 0.203
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 348 41.15 1.687 85.34% -0.245 0.1724
Thriving Communities 1517 31.3 -2.934 55.57% -1.946 0.1608
Tipping Point 4259 33.63 -2.458 58.61% -1.854 0.3621
Unnatural Proliferation 1621 32.89 -2.06 57.62% -1.884 0.1967
Untended Land Crumbles 1582 29.79 -3.666 51.2% -2.153 -0.0574

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 28218 53.44% 31.9 -1.078 74.04% -0.068 -1.1411
B 30823 52.83% 34.52 -0.212 75.17% 0.002 -1.1625
C 29516 53.89% 33.76 -0.29 74.81% 0.032 -1.3652
D 45549 51.42% 33.86 -0.436 74.85% 0.029 -1.1294
E 3696 53.45% 34.4 -0.382 73.24% 0.06 -1.1968
F 9095 51.46% 37.91 0.772 75.71% 0.075 -1.151
G 8442 54.0% 37.45 0.664 74.99% 0.094 -1.1185
H 8739 51.65% 36.81 0.501 76.23% 0.155 -1.0666
East 3046 35.07% 47.77 3.196 70.16% -0.063 -0.9985
Northeast 3488 39.97% 49.5 3.59 67.55% 0.042 -0.827
Northwest 2943 36.73% 50.27 3.988 70.37% 0.108 -0.8371
Southeast 356 53.8% 36.25 -1.016 65.73% -0.099 -1.082
Southwest 292 49.14% 37.2 -0.928 69.18% -0.1 -0.7247
West 3207 45.37% 43.85 1.694 63.95% -0.198 -0.8632

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9051 0.0% 19.61 -6.233 69.85% -2.238 -0.1992
Not Using Events or Tokens 40435 55.02% 27.54 -3.099 75.41% -0.029 0.1917
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5994 16.84% 41.33 2.368 89.42% 0.432 -0.2736
Start of Game Growth 9172 19.43% 40.08 1.973 88.74% 0.596 0.137
Unlimited Undo 16258 42.69% 37.13 0.92 81.02% 0.286 -0.1167
Using Tokens but Not Events 15212 49.33% 31.95 -1.544 76.74% 0.041 -0.0052

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 16958 31.04% 40.36 1.391 81.41% 0.073 0.2198
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 14303 52.02% 33.0 -1.182 73.61% -0.309 -0.0729
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2397 37.93% 34.68 -1.167 77.76% -0.226 -0.3123
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3801 32.03% 37.55 0.305 82.58% 0.094 -0.2752
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3137 37.26% 36.46 -0.319 79.15% -0.114 -0.3471
Fractured Days Split the Sky 474 34.75% 41.98 1.63 77.0% -0.341 -0.0077
Heart of the Wildfire 6915 51.45% 37.67 -0.067 74.97% -0.011 0.3367
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 11809 40.01% 39.61 0.833 80.23% 0.15 -0.1483
Lightning's Swift Strike 13919 38.44% 37.73 0.708 79.81% -0.045 0.2231
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2025 38.38% 36.55 0.07 82.12% 0.13 -0.2311
Many Minds Move as One 1031 41.0% 38.47 0.789 80.7% 0.189 -0.3247
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2885 35.27% 39.93 0.963 81.87% 0.171 0.2188
River Surges in Sunlight 34652 38.51% 38.59 1.25 79.19% -0.018 0.1487
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 10635 35.11% 40.88 0.991 77.56% -0.161 -0.0113
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6617 45.89% 35.39 -0.097 79.36% -0.054 0.3949
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6357 37.31% 40.49 1.008 79.53% 0.008 -0.057
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2016 41.95% 36.82 -0.449 76.39% -0.205 -0.2244
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 6381 33.2% 39.97 1.326 82.9% 0.257 0.4725
Thunderspeaker 10605 36.76% 37.66 0.324 78.63% -0.157 -0.0968
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1146 60.86% 36.98 -0.25 72.51% 0.012 0.0478
Vital Strength of the Earth 7723 33.15% 34.07 -1.07 78.79% -0.27 0.5949
Volcano Looming High 321 46.54% 38.09 0.113 77.88% 0.135 0.0337

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.18%
Grasping Tide 92.14%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.8%
Tidal Boon 77.04%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16696 22.34 15.59%
II 53273 30.71 58.98%
III 68581 34.23 86.31%
IV 38860 37.48 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1762
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 38483
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19500
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25510
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1059
Lose: Adversary condition 11565
Win: Sacrifice victory 979
Lose: Scenario condition 2469
Win: Scenario condition 4304
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29659
Lose: Spirit destroyed 782

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.074 Win Model: -0.112

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.42 Win Model: -0.625
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 77441 64.65% 33.3 68.95%
2 55466 46.92% 34.74 77.49%
3 22868 37.58% 36.35 80.23%
4 21635 33.32% 41.9 79.29%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)