Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 44.44% 26.03 80.56% 0.019 0.5143 0.0
Blitz 0 2469 47.99% 32.77 68.04% 0.264 0.7073 -0.769
Dahan Insurrection 4 4252 36.48% 58.78 66.27% -0.306 -0.2086 -0.11
Despicable Theft 2 161 59.63% 31.42 63.35% -0.584 -0.0856 -0.496
Elemental Invocation 1 317 59.31% 32.39 60.57% -0.331 0.2146 -1.356
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10586 9.19% 50.79 75.56% -0.795 -0.5632 0.142
Powers Long Forgotten 1 552 53.93% 36.93 63.22% -0.336 0.0719 -0.914
Rituals of Terror 3 624 68.49% 33.49 45.51% -0.82 -1.0563 -1.15
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 352 81.25% 33.16 40.63% -1.35 -1.1241 -1.939
Second Wave 0 6849 43.79% 29.66 78.68% -0.314 0.3787 -0.288
The Great River 3 326 36.92% 36.1 61.35% -0.256 1.3255 -2.241
Varied Terrains 2 42 54.76% 37.26 69.05% -0.091 0.6956 -0.877
Ward the Shores 2 3090 58.48% 31.74 62.75% -0.809 0.0721 -0.959

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 105052 64.85% 32.61 69.69% -0.614 0.049 -0.58
1 Thematic 5865 57.5% 40.88 54.27% -0.756 0.3005 -1.236
2 Archipelago 212 56.67% 35.66 67.92% -0.459 0.0116 -1.589
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 47448 48.11% 34.59 78.12% -0.561 -0.0432 -0.215
2 Coastline 8513 49.26% 33.65 78.13% -0.161 0.0396 -0.311
2 Fragment 1305 54.49% 30.22 75.02% 0.578 0.8762 -0.177
2 Heart 712 56.13% 28.35 75.14% -0.123 0.3374 -0.635
2 Opposite Shores 14553 44.62% 32.62 78.14% -0.466 0.073 -1.002
2 Thematic 4728 40.5% 45.44 69.04% -0.339 0.4428 -0.79
2 Top to Top 2865 48.62% 35.5 77.94% 0.45 0.5784 -0.329
3 Archipelago 150 35.33% 38.6 87.33% -0.583 -0.8011 -0.813
3 Coastline 300 38.7% 36.96 76.33% -0.233 -0.7397 0.36
3 Other 1457 42.44% 36.27 81.95% -0.434 -1.098 0.042
3 Round (Default) 30681 37.49% 36.9 80.69% -0.586 -0.281 -0.678
3 Sunrise 193 41.88% 45.04 80.31% 0.303 0.7625 0.171
3 Thematic 1312 34.9% 39.43 76.07% -0.563 -0.3551 -1.011
4 Archipelago 108 29.25% 39.66 87.04% 0.273 0.2356 -1.569
4 Coastline 223 17.35% 48.06 83.41% 0.207 0.1693 0.501
4 Leaf 134 38.17% 35.57 76.87% 0.012 -0.09 -1.314
4 Other 909 37.56% 35.24 82.29% 0.3 -0.4142 -0.129
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 6306 28.06% 54.52 75.82% -0.646 -0.5418 -0.412
4 Trapezoid (Default) 22725 33.49% 38.7 81.11% -0.857 -0.7789 -0.7
5 Archipelago 45 44.44% 43.53 82.22% 0.275 0.1773 -0.922
5 Coastline 76 6.85% 65.22 98.68% 0.436 -0.1515 0.754
5 Other 541 35.38% 43.76 89.28% 0.347 -0.1689 0.122
5 Thematic 117 29.06% 63.28 87.18% -0.515 -0.8024 0.904
6 Archipelago 58 26.53% 46.62 86.21% -0.507 -0.6536 -0.893
6 Coastline 43 13.64% 45.49 97.67% 0.365 -0.269 0.372
6 Other 305 17.47% 41.28 81.64% 0.216 0.2605 -1.262
6 Star 83 35.37% 39.34 68.67% -0.832 -0.0621 -1.173
6 Thematic 423 22.75% 46.29 78.01% -0.067 0.1742 -0.345
6 Two Centers (Default) 431 24.02% 36.09 87.01% -0.464 -0.2725 -1.186
7 Archipelago 11 45.45% 38.82 81.82% -0.596 -0.4472 -0.649
7 Other 12 70.0% 41.33 66.67% 0.264 -0.2197 0.09

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9327 34.45 58.35% -1.778 0.1924 -1.175
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8126 36.89 62.08% -1.618 0.1599 -1.004
All Things Weaken 3215 30.79 49.14% -2.237 -0.188 -1.37
Back Against the Wall 6985 32.21 53.56% -1.809 0.1298 -1.444
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8877 31.91 55.72% -1.757 0.3706 -1.377
Downward Spiral 25509 28.93 64.78% -1.778 0.183 -1.11
Erosion of Will 9251 33.49 56.33% -1.832 0.2495 -1.313
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1362 38.46 81.35% -0.144 0.3578 -0.61
Memory Fades to Dust 25227 28.01 59.72% -2.049 0.0915 -1.292
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3259 30.69 54.74% -1.869 0.1117 -1.462
Promising Farmlands 9230 32.35 56.53% -1.852 0.17 -1.389
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 844 40.2 85.19% -0.343 0.1536 -0.135
Thriving Communities 3323 31.45 55.25% -1.872 0.1874 -1.279
Tipping Point 4261 33.63 58.6% 0.0 0.0 -1.196
Unnatural Proliferation 3539 33.19 56.63% -1.729 0.2281 -1.252
Untended Land Crumbles 3400 30.22 51.74% -2.081 -0.0475 -1.4

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 82368 46.04% 34.15 77.3% -0.165 0.5716 0.047
B 85153 45.72% 35.21 77.67% -0.101 0.5958 0.346
C 84682 46.3% 35.04 77.64% -0.117 0.3527 0.175
D 99437 47.06% 34.74 76.81% -0.166 0.5437 -0.012
E 19158 45.48% 37.13 77.5% -0.099 0.4451 0.031
F 30690 45.51% 37.39 77.86% -0.099 0.5622 0.052
G 29198 45.8% 37.58 78.0% -0.008 0.6224 0.109
H 29518 45.19% 37.33 78.03% 0.006 0.6706 0.123
East 15137 37.89% 48.23 69.28% -0.262 0.3998 -0.405
Northeast 10932 34.8% 50.34 71.5% -0.8 -0.1403 -0.415
Northwest 9480 31.88% 51.27 72.99% -0.064 0.5464 -0.179
Southeast 2090 41.57% 42.0 66.22% -0.56 -0.0285 -1.687
Southwest 1784 37.35% 41.46 71.52% -0.571 0.397 -0.621
West 13764 35.92% 48.58 71.03% -0.422 0.3837 -0.451

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13285 0.0% 19.66 70.64% -2.839 -0.6104 -1.087
Not Using Events or Tokens 58162 54.68% 27.51 75.36% 0.163 0.3893 0.099
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8031 16.8% 40.8 89.59% 0.401 -0.5792 0.118
Start of Game Growth 12800 19.32% 40.16 88.89% 1.109 0.6519 0.27
Unlimited Undo 23551 41.29% 37.12 81.95% 0.527 -0.0245 0.605
Using Tokens but Not Events 22225 45.75% 33.17 77.98% -0.056 0.0988 0.069

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 24841 100.0% 40.36 100.0% 0.244 0.1689 0.06
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 19086 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.137 -0.058 -0.67
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3574 100.0% 34.09 100.0% -0.698 -0.9224 -0.628
Downpour Drenches the World 593 100.0% 41.06 100.0% -0.505 -0.2402 -0.28
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6356 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 0.237 -0.2665 0.067
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4863 100.0% 36.61 100.0% -0.106 -0.6924 -0.33
Finder of Paths Unseen 587 100.0% 38.94 100.0% -0.644 -0.2881 -0.331
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1115 100.0% 43.89 100.0% -0.513 -0.4314 -0.114
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 698 100.0% 40.02 100.0% 0.207 0.1124 -0.24
Heart of the Wildfire 8871 100.0% 37.7 100.0% -0.295 0.1103 0.345
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16286 100.0% 40.48 100.0% 0.052 -0.5513 0.277
Lightning's Swift Strike 17365 112.84% 37.49 103.24% -0.023 0.3418 0.165
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 189 34.51% 42.12 82.54% -0.258 -1.0069 0.071
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 667 43.29% 42.81 79.31% -0.081 -0.645 0.291
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2583 31.17% 53.07 84.86% 0.904 0.4096 0.62
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 6431 100.0% 36.61 100.0% -0.208 -0.3595 -0.416
Many Minds Move as One 2039 100.0% 38.43 100.0% 0.358 -0.2277 0.124
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4375 100.0% 40.19 100.0% 0.438 0.3822 0.295
River Surges in Sunlight 46047 105.61% 39.06 102.19% 0.341 0.2671 0.063
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 3665 39.48% 36.67 76.86% 0.036 0.4621 -0.666
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 660 40.03% 48.65 75.76% 0.376 0.0345 -0.325
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 13952 100.0% 41.25 100.0% 0.172 -0.0219 -0.082
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7830 108.6% 34.6 102.82% -0.155 0.32 0.329
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 63 26.23% 50.95 82.54% -0.082 0.098 1.243
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 140 33.33% 46.11 89.29% 0.668 0.7231 1.488
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 469 45.28% 35.19 77.61% 0.018 -0.0045 -0.515
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 481 39.92% 35.6 81.29% -0.015 0.1007 0.338
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8376 100.0% 40.91 100.0% 0.278 0.0872 0.622
Shifting Memory of Ages 942 100.0% 36.88 100.0% -0.062 0.1526 -0.308
Shroud of Silent Mist 1147 100.0% 34.07 100.0% 0.693 0.827 -0.312
Starlight Seeks its Form 993 100.0% 39.45 100.0% -0.129 -0.2441 -0.107
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3364 100.0% 36.7 100.0% -0.705 -0.9442 -0.693
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 9866 100.0% 39.36 100.0% 0.069 0.1995 0.199
Thunderspeaker 14552 100.0% 38.06 100.0% 0.112 0.0952 -0.124
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1882 100.0% 35.94 100.0% -0.379 -0.5945 -0.124
Vital Strength of the Earth 10186 102.69% 34.1 101.23% 0.104 1.0021 0.206
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 129 27.12% 47.79 84.5% 0.209 0.6324 1.045
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 333 42.86% 32.34 68.47% -0.434 0.6802 -1.216
Volcano Looming High 1959 100.0% 36.64 100.0% -0.085 -0.1062 -0.287

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.43%
Grasping Tide 92.14%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.62%
Tidal Boon 77.35%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24296 22.65 15.83%
II 77373 31.08 59.2%
III 99736 34.66 86.63%
IV 56602 37.91 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3844
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 82983
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 42143
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55688
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1483
Lose: Adversary condition 16882
Win: Sacrifice victory 1423
Lose: Scenario condition 3421
Win: Scenario condition 6283
Lose: Blight pool ran out 42769
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1088

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.941 Win Model: -0.126

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.359 Win Model: 0.134
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 111759 64.49% 33.12 68.91%
2 80200 47.14% 34.66 77.57%
3 33836 37.44% 37.04 80.58%
4 30512 32.26% 42.03 80.15%
5 353 25.31% 44.96 87.54%
6 1347 22.94% 41.56 82.11%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)