Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 28 46.43% 24.57 78.57% 0.036 0.1297 0.0
Blitz 0 2348 48.82% 32.21 67.12% -0.469 -0.2254 -0.852
Dahan Insurrection 4 4057 36.25% 58.69 66.53% -0.384 -0.0998 -0.1
Despicable Theft 2 148 60.81% 31.28 62.84% 0.268 0.484 -0.311
Elemental Invocation 1 300 59.0% 32.11 60.67% -0.291 0.3133 -1.473
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10174 9.25% 50.81 75.66% -0.91 -0.7368 0.179
Powers Long Forgotten 1 539 53.37% 36.99 63.27% -0.102 0.1913 -1.034
Rituals of Terror 3 592 69.15% 33.04 45.1% -1.187 -1.2144 -1.173
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 322 81.06% 33.5 43.17% -0.737 -0.1595 -1.874
Second Wave 0 6592 43.9% 29.55 78.64% -0.264 0.1985 -0.331
The Great River 3 316 36.19% 35.73 60.76% -0.939 0.5274 -2.304
Varied Terrains 2 32 59.38% 36.38 65.63% -0.171 0.3814 -0.55
Ward the Shores 2 2983 58.58% 31.74 62.55% -1.037 0.1538 -0.968

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 101392 64.84% 32.53 69.78% -0.267 0.1765 -0.492
1 Thematic 5716 57.48% 40.91 54.43% -0.347 0.2288 -1.181
2 Archipelago 186 57.61% 35.12 66.67% -0.799 -0.1649 -1.527
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 46078 48.13% 34.59 78.18% -0.055 0.3181 -0.098
2 Coastline 8244 49.3% 33.6 78.0% -0.273 -0.19 -0.242
2 Fragment 1275 54.3% 30.15 74.75% 0.756 0.7653 -0.176
2 Heart 686 56.2% 28.27 75.07% -0.01 0.2436 -0.724
2 Opposite Shores 14112 44.54% 32.58 78.2% -0.324 0.1518 -0.893
2 Thematic 4620 40.42% 45.41 68.98% -0.134 0.25 -0.754
2 Top to Top 2780 48.52% 35.49 77.73% -0.673 -0.3715 -0.246
3 Archipelago 134 35.82% 39.26 88.06% 0.159 -0.3282 -0.969
3 Coastline 284 38.99% 37.12 76.06% 0.79 0.2354 0.477
3 Other 1428 42.11% 36.54 82.21% 0.311 -0.7243 0.102
3 Round (Default) 29612 37.35% 36.79 80.77% -0.181 0.112 -0.571
3 Sunrise 192 41.58% 45.02 80.21% -0.924 -1.151 0.251
3 Thematic 1278 35.13% 39.2 75.98% 0.954 0.5628 -0.933
4 Archipelago 99 30.93% 40.71 85.86% -0.297 -1.1537 -1.532
4 Coastline 216 17.84% 48.72 82.87% -0.097 -0.1946 0.542
4 Leaf 130 39.37% 35.48 76.15% 0.013 0.2528 -1.248
4 Other 876 37.67% 35.5 81.96% -0.293 -0.7388 -0.059
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 6196 28.2% 54.51 75.81% -0.107 -0.071 -0.32
4 Trapezoid (Default) 22119 33.61% 38.7 81.11% -0.3 -0.4559 -0.59
5 Archipelago 42 45.24% 43.93 80.95% 0.137 -0.2821 -1.027
5 Coastline 59 7.02% 64.37 98.31% 0.167 -0.3552 1.017
5 Other 473 36.24% 44.27 89.43% -0.264 0.0841 0.386
5 Thematic 108 25.0% 64.71 90.74% -0.45 -0.5696 1.257
6 Archipelago 41 35.14% 44.32 87.8% 0.085 -0.4318 -0.753
6 Coastline 35 9.52% 48.46 97.14% -0.259 -0.7167 0.283
6 Other 250 19.5% 40.04 80.0% -0.63 0.1587 -1.212
6 Star 73 34.72% 38.86 68.49% -0.824 -0.0917 -1.177
6 Thematic 333 20.78% 44.34 79.58% -1.066 -0.8887 -0.384
6 Two Centers (Default) 338 24.92% 36.28 85.5% -0.919 -0.5561 -1.272
7 Archipelago 9 33.33% 42.78 88.89% 0.0 -0.8359 -0.722
7 Other 7 60.0% 49.0 71.43% 0.347 -0.4048 0.355

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9066 34.42 58.41% -1.542 0.2862 -1.16
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7916 36.87 62.09% -1.225 0.4183 -0.994
All Things Weaken 3027 30.81 49.36% -1.727 0.2514 -1.362
Back Against the Wall 6778 32.19 53.5% -2.137 -0.2858 -1.433
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8639 31.9 55.71% -1.796 0.183 -1.37
Downward Spiral 24804 28.89 64.86% -1.92 -0.0202 -1.09
Erosion of Will 8960 33.46 56.32% -1.781 0.2996 -1.309
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1264 38.27 81.09% -0.338 0.2013 -0.607
Memory Fades to Dust 24465 28.01 59.77% -1.922 0.0578 -1.285
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3051 30.57 54.87% -1.753 0.1375 -1.452
Promising Farmlands 8970 32.33 56.58% -1.86 0.1483 -1.376
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 779 39.85 85.37% -0.373 0.0723 -0.108
Thriving Communities 3116 31.49 55.42% -1.94 0.0315 -1.236
Tipping Point 4261 33.63 58.6% 0.047 0.5308 -1.188
Unnatural Proliferation 3290 33.04 56.5% -1.655 0.2376 -1.257
Untended Land Crumbles 3189 30.07 51.83% -1.84 0.1829 -1.396

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 79870 46.08% 34.09 77.28% -0.061 0.7139 0.05
B 82721 45.76% 35.19 77.69% 0.186 0.889 0.36
C 82256 46.31% 35.0 77.65% 0.063 0.6275 0.164
D 96512 47.09% 34.66 76.85% 0.073 0.8388 -0.009
E 17921 45.66% 37.06 77.43% 0.459 1.065 0.038
F 29290 45.6% 37.39 77.84% 0.157 0.8635 0.056
G 27880 45.83% 37.63 78.08% 0.149 0.879 0.119
H 28083 45.19% 37.31 78.12% 0.321 0.9956 0.124
East 14698 37.79% 48.24 69.42% -0.262 0.3981 -0.36
Northeast 10598 34.71% 50.35 71.72% -0.062 0.6408 -0.337
Northwest 9236 32.0% 51.22 72.95% -0.329 0.73 -0.164
Southeast 1930 41.91% 41.43 65.96% -1.025 -0.2813 -1.733
Southwest 1631 37.71% 40.72 71.18% -0.262 0.747 -0.596
West 13406 36.05% 48.53 70.97% 0.08 1.1477 -0.397

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12824 0.0% 19.71 71.0% -2.72 -0.7034 -0.974
Not Using Events or Tokens 56463 54.58% 27.48 75.49% 0.153 0.3711 0.087
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7768 16.81% 40.63 89.59% 0.222 0.1106 -0.166
Start of Game Growth 12373 19.35% 39.8 88.88% 1.537 0.8364 0.243
Unlimited Undo 22708 41.35% 36.95 81.91% 0.56 -0.1338 0.577
Using Tokens but Not Events 21346 45.98% 33.17 78.05% -0.104 -0.1618 0.096

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 24133 100.0% 40.29 100.0% 0.271 0.1354 0.05
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 18623 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.64 -0.6069 -0.662
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3473 100.0% 34.16 100.0% -0.29 -0.4278 -0.631
Downpour Drenches the World 377 100.0% 41.37 100.0% -0.498 -0.1653 -0.08
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6123 100.0% 37.08 100.0% -0.382 -0.8004 0.076
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4659 100.0% 36.59 100.0% 0.108 -0.4733 -0.347
Finder of Paths Unseen 416 100.0% 39.91 100.0% -0.441 -0.0496 -0.019
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1022 100.0% 43.45 100.0% 0.027 0.0716 -0.071
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 599 100.0% 39.1 100.0% -0.342 -0.347 -0.306
Heart of the Wildfire 8639 100.0% 37.68 100.0% -0.279 -0.0395 0.359
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15772 100.0% 40.44 100.0% 0.184 -0.3328 0.333
Lightning's Swift Strike 17037 112.19% 37.49 103.0% 0.199 0.4334 0.169
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 116 30.14% 42.64 87.07% 0.549 -0.3125 0.488
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 637 42.99% 42.97 79.28% 1.214 0.6166 0.317
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2424 30.75% 52.88 84.98% 0.092 -0.2449 0.643
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 5998 100.0% 36.6 100.0% -0.124 -0.3465 -0.387
Many Minds Move as One 1942 100.0% 38.37 100.0% 0.343 -0.2385 0.116
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4221 100.0% 40.17 100.0% -0.215 -0.2245 0.287
River Surges in Sunlight 44984 104.98% 39.04 101.97% 0.134 0.1914 0.055
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 3387 39.61% 36.7 76.73% 0.509 0.8666 -0.619
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 373 41.69% 46.99 74.26% -0.252 -0.5098 -0.455
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 13614 100.0% 41.22 100.0% -0.335 -0.3531 -0.088
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7696 107.87% 34.65 102.65% 0.753 1.1966 0.299
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 49 24.49% 54.59 83.67% 0.11 0.2112 1.224
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 69 28.99% 43.23 89.86% 0.151 -0.028 0.852
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 452 45.43% 35.36 77.21% 0.134 0.1072 -0.541
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 466 39.47% 35.67 81.55% -0.51 -0.3103 0.311
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8161 100.0% 40.89 100.0% 0.516 0.2382 0.611
Shifting Memory of Ages 823 100.0% 37.09 100.0% 0.688 0.7141 -0.172
Shroud of Silent Mist 1047 100.0% 34.19 100.0% -0.094 0.1697 -0.301
Starlight Seeks its Form 807 100.0% 40.34 100.0% 0.204 0.0115 -0.046
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3212 100.0% 36.77 100.0% -0.027 -0.1994 -0.686
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 9468 100.0% 39.25 100.0% 0.362 0.4675 0.157
Thunderspeaker 14119 100.0% 38.03 100.0% 0.023 -0.0104 -0.104
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1793 100.0% 36.07 100.0% -0.519 -0.5599 -0.073
Vital Strength of the Earth 9942 102.29% 34.06 101.13% -0.626 0.1636 0.162
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 78 25.0% 49.14 85.9% 0.191 0.649 0.672
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 315 44.05% 32.57 67.94% -0.379 0.6699 -1.185
Volcano Looming High 1809 100.0% 36.59 100.0% -0.636 -0.6226 -0.342

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.55%
Grasping Tide 92.21%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.65%
Tidal Boon 77.38%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23371 22.6 15.69%
II 74794 31.02 59.28%
III 96472 34.58 86.61%
IV 54851 37.82 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3664
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 80247
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 40790
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 53971
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1432
Lose: Adversary condition 16292
Win: Sacrifice victory 1359
Lose: Scenario condition 3314
Win: Scenario condition 6092
Lose: Blight pool ran out 41283
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1044

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.933 Win Model: -0.141

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.448 Win Model: 0.257
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 107839 64.47% 33.04 68.99%
2 77897 47.15% 34.65 77.58%
3 32671 37.33% 36.95 80.66%
4 29754 32.37% 42.07 80.13%
5 261 24.38% 44.9 87.74%
6 1066 22.9% 40.71 81.8%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)