Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2294 51.24% 31.35 -2.137 66.39% -0.698 -0.1207
Dahan Insurrection 4 3684 38.43% 57.14 9.045 65.69% -0.689 -0.288
Despicable Theft 2 12 58.33% 28.42 -2.858 75.0% -0.443 -0.0143
Elemental Invocation 1 102 53.92% 32.9 -2.093 60.78% -0.857 -0.4756
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10548 10.12% 48.03 4.576 75.6% -0.783 -0.4173
Powers Long Forgotten 1 755 53.54% 38.19 0.548 66.75% -0.584 -0.142
Rituals of Terror 3 575 63.96% 34.81 0.97 51.65% -1.224 -0.596
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 414 84.02% 33.49 -0.667 45.17% -1.084 -0.4347
Second Wave 0 6791 46.68% 29.87 -1.812 76.9% -0.46 -0.0438
The Great River 3 154 33.77% 35.8 0.037 57.79% -2.039 -0.5671
Ward the Shores 2 3251 57.26% 32.22 -0.71 63.15% -0.795 0.242

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 75806 65.25% 32.71 -0.857 69.57% -1.727 -1.3682
1 Thematic 4359 54.96% 42.38 1.783 57.54% -1.945 -1.4411
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 34208 47.74% 34.77 0.179 78.1% -0.633 -0.4373
2 Coastline 6004 49.4% 33.56 -0.247 78.41% -0.604 -0.4619
2 Fragment 938 53.32% 30.35 -1.511 74.84% -0.848 -0.4257
2 Heart 510 56.6% 28.1 -2.392 74.9% -0.874 -0.5813
2 Opposite Shores 10198 43.9% 32.3 -0.911 78.53% -0.695 -0.4706
2 Thematic 3485 41.88% 44.43 2.364 68.03% -1.119 -1.0741
2 Top to Top 2128 47.06% 35.47 0.388 77.82% -0.493 -0.3585
3 Coastline 194 36.17% 37.61 0.257 75.77% 0.027 -0.0069
3 Other 1005 44.36% 36.74 0.533 81.19% 0.1 0.5152
3 Round (Default) 21439 37.55% 36.12 0.111 80.38% 0.195 0.2336
3 Sunrise 153 38.82% 48.58 4.359 80.39% 0.739 0.516
3 Thematic 1013 34.0% 39.07 0.127 76.31% -0.229 -0.5856
4 Coastline 130 18.9% 44.77 2.115 77.69% 0.528 0.6863
4 Leaf 99 40.63% 34.65 -1.467 74.75% 0.434 0.4613
4 Other 616 37.81% 35.76 -0.707 80.19% 0.612 0.7254
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 35.4 -0.7 100.0% 0.217 -0.5712
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 -3.169 100.0% 0.392 0.5157
4 Thematic 5012 28.77% 54.14 4.392 74.82% 0.7 -0.3861
4 Trapezoid (Default) 16483 34.59% 38.42 0.252 80.6% 0.849 0.8323
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 75.0 14.333 100.0% 0.311 0.2291
5 Other 192 39.15% 45.74 3.162 92.19% 1.946 1.7271
5 Thematic 54 25.93% 67.93 10.379 98.15% 2.738 -0.0896

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6994 34.65 -1.91 58.31% -1.913 0.1569
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6024 36.91 -0.89 61.67% -1.781 0.1373
All Things Weaken 1643 29.58 -3.744 47.17% -2.34 -0.1852
Back Against the Wall 5176 32.27 -2.85 53.3% -2.126 -0.0302
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6643 32.25 -3.148 55.91% -1.979 0.2447
Downward Spiral 19089 28.94 -3.147 64.91% -1.77 0.247
Erosion of Will 6803 33.46 -2.459 56.03% -2.019 0.1905
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 661 38.61 0.47 81.69% -0.68 0.0242
Memory Fades to Dust 18796 28.09 -3.535 59.91% -2.002 0.2131
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1656 30.6 -3.258 55.31% -1.963 0.0569
Promising Farmlands 6952 32.28 -3.017 56.1% -2.004 0.2084
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 389 41.0 1.597 84.83% -0.297 0.1386
Thriving Communities 1667 31.5 -2.874 55.67% -1.927 0.1704
Tipping Point 4259 33.63 -2.456 58.61% -1.853 0.3653
Unnatural Proliferation 1761 32.84 -2.101 57.47% -1.887 0.1904
Untended Land Crumbles 1713 29.73 -3.687 51.14% -2.149 -0.05

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 29115 53.51% 31.85 -1.084 73.97% -0.076 -1.1659
B 31776 52.83% 34.52 -0.203 75.22% -0.002 -1.1875
C 30570 53.85% 33.72 -0.297 74.76% 0.022 -1.3925
D 47184 51.43% 33.9 -0.412 74.9% 0.027 -1.1498
E 4033 53.23% 34.31 -0.402 73.49% 0.065 -1.2115
F 9609 51.59% 37.8 0.737 75.6% 0.063 -1.1803
G 8904 53.88% 37.38 0.65 74.99% 0.087 -1.1433
H 9176 51.59% 36.65 0.444 76.16% 0.138 -1.1021
East 3111 35.35% 47.65 3.155 69.98% -0.06 -1.0107
Northeast 3586 39.7% 49.75 3.696 67.93% 0.063 -0.827
Northwest 3014 36.73% 50.38 4.024 70.57% 0.122 -0.8425
Southeast 379 52.91% 36.79 -0.844 66.23% -0.081 -1.0829
Southwest 309 50.0% 36.67 -1.151 68.28% -0.115 -0.723
West 3276 45.35% 43.88 1.721 64.19% -0.184 -0.8703

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9492 0.0% 19.6 -6.217 70.2% -2.221 -0.177
Not Using Events or Tokens 42160 55.03% 27.51 -3.09 75.48% -0.021 0.1978
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6150 16.9% 41.31 2.348 89.4% 0.416 -0.288
Start of Game Growth 9427 19.56% 40.06 1.969 88.69% 0.591 0.1363
Unlimited Undo 16865 42.6% 37.09 0.921 81.13% 0.292 -0.1204
Using Tokens but Not Events 15657 49.14% 32.03 -1.504 76.86% 0.046 -0.0011

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 17618 30.96% 40.29 1.378 81.52% 0.087 0.233
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 14686 52.02% 32.94 -1.206 73.5% -0.319 -0.0822
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2474 37.83% 34.58 -1.186 77.97% -0.216 -0.3019
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3982 31.93% 37.51 0.298 82.6% 0.089 -0.2763
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3263 37.12% 36.4 -0.314 79.41% -0.098 -0.343
Fractured Days Split the Sky 539 35.82% 41.58 1.548 76.81% -0.325 0.0203
Heart of the Wildfire 7077 51.24% 37.7 -0.051 74.99% -0.011 0.3398
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12160 40.01% 39.73 0.885 80.29% 0.158 -0.1416
Lightning's Swift Strike 14519 38.19% 37.84 0.754 79.92% -0.044 0.2246
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2367 38.67% 36.68 0.049 81.79% 0.117 -0.2028
Many Minds Move as One 1105 40.18% 38.63 0.817 80.63% 0.169 -0.3514
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2981 34.91% 39.93 0.962 82.09% 0.175 0.2235
River Surges in Sunlight 35774 38.57% 38.62 1.259 79.18% -0.02 0.1418
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 10899 34.95% 40.92 0.987 77.52% -0.172 -0.0226
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6811 45.64% 35.31 -0.126 79.39% -0.06 0.3897
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6490 37.35% 40.52 1.027 79.58% 0.012 -0.0553
Shroud of Silent Mist 45 44.44% 39.29 0.818 80.0% 0.131 0.0868
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2138 41.7% 36.91 -0.426 75.87% -0.238 -0.2571
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 6627 33.24% 39.88 1.31 82.84% 0.252 0.4686
Thunderspeaker 10881 36.78% 37.68 0.333 78.68% -0.157 -0.0997
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1216 60.66% 36.96 -0.24 72.53% 0.019 0.0383
Vital Strength of the Earth 7918 33.17% 34.02 -1.099 78.72% -0.279 0.5915
Volcano Looming High 537 45.11% 38.34 0.164 76.54% 0.023 -0.0388

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.24%
Grasping Tide 92.15%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.7%
Tidal Boon 77.07%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17286 22.34 15.5%
II 55277 30.75 58.97%
III 71193 34.26 86.36%
IV 40286 37.47 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1839
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 40673
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20599
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 26910
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1095
Lose: Adversary condition 11984
Win: Sacrifice victory 1015
Lose: Scenario condition 2554
Win: Scenario condition 4457
Lose: Blight pool ran out 30763
Lose: Spirit destroyed 815

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.082 Win Model: -0.111

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.424 Win Model: -0.64
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 80471 64.69% 33.27 68.97%
2 57459 46.89% 34.69 77.53%
3 23688 37.53% 36.34 80.2%
4 22424 33.24% 41.98 79.33%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)