Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Ocean's Hungry Grasp

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
208782	51.58%	35.11	74.55%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	65891	42.89%	19.45	0.000	83.28%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	729	43.6%	28.85	-1.92	81.76%	-0.255	0.0286
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	586	47.07%	33.49	0.342	83.45%	-0.017	0.3935
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	821	59.46%	37.63	2.57	71.62%	-0.718	0.1589
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	970	60.85%	38.83	2.969	66.7%	-1.082	0.1636
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	424	85.61%	34.14	1.246	37.74%	-1.927	-0.4251
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	223	80.72%	39.22	3.403	42.15%	-1.756	0.1971
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	818	85.91%	36.19	2.495	29.1%	-2.346	-0.3029
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	6462	39.72%	25.63	-3.112	87.81%	0.247	0.2886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	4600	39.61%	31.01	-0.203	89.91%	0.472	0.4535

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	2483	51.46%	31.15	-2.165	66.94%	-0.678	-0.1088
Dahan Insurrection	4	4241	37.49%	57.33	9.167	66.26%	-0.69	-0.2914
Despicable Theft	2	84	61.9%	30.45	-1.324	64.29%	-0.794	-0.525
Elemental Invocation	1	204	58.33%	32.05	-2.157	55.88%	-0.955	-0.491
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	11673	9.77%	48.68	4.816	75.94%	-0.772	-0.4053
Powers Long Forgotten	1	792	53.69%	37.85	0.476	66.29%	-0.617	-0.1717
Rituals of Terror	3	656	64.76%	34.35	0.909	51.07%	-1.238	-0.5932
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	436	83.91%	33.52	-0.56	45.87%	-1.072	-0.4265
Second Wave	0	7598	46.35%	29.71	-1.85	76.95%	-0.471	-0.0422
The Great River	3	219	33.79%	35.39	0.04	59.82%	-1.907	-0.4439
Ward the Shores	2	3600	57.22%	32.16	-0.724	63.22%	-0.805	0.2287

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	85619	65.1%	32.64	-0.852	69.74%	-1.476	-1.3035
1	Thematic	4886	55.63%	41.54	1.473	57.53%	-1.719	-1.3571
2	Archipelago	34	52.94%	42.82	2.412	58.82%	-1.359	-1.1326
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	38839	47.89%	34.56	0.13	78.14%	-0.528	-0.4763
2	Coastline	6877	49.48%	33.58	-0.215	78.3%	-0.498	-0.4905
2	Fragment	1071	54.95%	30.11	-1.595	74.32%	-0.735	-0.4788
2	Heart	570	56.18%	28.34	-2.249	75.61%	-0.705	-0.5626
2	Opposite Shores	11755	44.03%	32.36	-0.854	78.67%	-0.577	-0.4863
2	Thematic	3931	41.04%	44.86	2.551	68.25%	-1.001	-1.0423
2	Top to Top	2351	47.48%	35.29	0.364	78.18%	-0.369	-0.4003

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	7820	34.48	-1.939	58.4%	-1.93	0.1428
Aid From Lesser Spirits	6728	36.83	-0.885	61.82%	-1.799	0.1189
All Things Weaken	2159	30.0	-3.522	48.31%	-2.307	-0.1371
Back Against the Wall	5806	32.16	-2.865	53.44%	-2.142	-0.0504
Disintegrating Ecosystem	7361	31.99	-3.207	55.96%	-2.003	0.222
Downward Spiral	21252	28.94	-3.118	65.1%	-1.778	0.2451
Erosion of Will	7625	33.45	-2.433	56.17%	-2.032	0.1768
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	878	38.45	0.428	81.66%	-0.708	-0.0212
Memory Fades to Dust	20993	27.95	-3.561	59.9%	-2.02	0.1987
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2168	30.49	-3.282	55.44%	-1.988	0.036
Promising Farmlands	7696	32.28	-2.975	56.44%	-2.013	0.2013
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	535	40.1	1.246	85.61%	-0.31	0.0997
Thriving Communities	2204	31.4	-2.93	55.67%	-1.96	0.1349
Tipping Point	4259	33.63	-2.442	58.61%	-1.87	0.3559
Unnatural Proliferation	2362	33.05	-2.004	57.66%	-1.904	0.1823
Untended Land Crumbles	2260	29.93	-3.535	51.77%	-2.142	-0.0358

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	32570	53.61%	31.74	-1.092	74.05%	-0.066	-0.8261
B	35456	52.9%	34.47	-0.197	75.34%	0.011	-0.8462
C	34206	53.84%	33.7	-0.28	74.89%	0.035	-1.0532
D	52992	51.19%	33.96	-0.356	75.21%	0.049	-0.8008
E	5386	52.45%	34.26	-0.457	73.75%	0.054	-0.9115
East	3434	35.44%	47.74	3.142	69.48%	-0.082	-0.7315
F	11584	51.23%	37.32	0.587	75.7%	0.064	-0.8499
G	10568	53.41%	37.08	0.583	75.54%	0.109	-0.7966
H	10875	51.42%	36.31	0.337	76.25%	0.144	-0.7701
Northeast	4001	39.18%	50.12	3.854	68.83%	0.114	-0.4848
Northwest	3269	36.48%	50.36	4.018	70.42%	0.12	-0.5496
Southeast	480	52.61%	36.15	-1.09	63.96%	-0.187	-0.8933
Southwest	381	49.47%	36.82	-1.171	67.19%	-0.154	-0.4266
West	3580	44.64%	44.41	1.945	64.94%	-0.141	-0.5396

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	10829	0.0%	19.62	-6.163	70.84%	-2.213	-0.1564
Not Using Events or Tokens	47764	54.99%	27.47	-3.075	75.57%	-0.027	0.1886
Skip Initial Invader Actions	6765	16.72%	40.96	2.237	89.46%	0.376	-0.311
Start of Game Growth	10503	19.44%	39.79	1.945	88.93%	0.625	0.155
Unlimited Undo	19137	42.13%	36.86	0.875	81.51%	0.289	-0.1312
Using Tokens but Not Events	17684	47.63%	32.28	-1.41	77.51%	0.042	-0.0105

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	20038	30.74%	40.15	1.348	81.76%	0.11	0.2238
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	16225	52.17%	32.96	-1.157	73.69%	-0.303	-0.0969
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	2851	37.03%	34.46	-1.21	78.43%	-0.211	-0.316
Eyes Watch From the Trees	4828	30.73%	37.2	0.239	83.89%	0.155	-0.2373
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	3824	37.32%	36.34	-0.289	79.81%	-0.084	-0.375
Fractured Days Split the Sky	739	35.1%	43.2	2.07	78.62%	-0.179	0.1744
Heart of the Wildfire	7598	51.51%	37.59	-0.103	74.93%	-0.013	0.3155
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	13580	39.49%	40.12	1.01	80.65%	0.181	-0.1494
Lightning's Swift Strike	16423	37.62%	38.17	0.898	80.31%	-0.018	0.2184
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	3580	40.14%	36.18	-0.139	80.95%	0.079	-0.2085

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	2201	4.45	35.005	75.87%
Animated Wrackroot	651	3.659	34.753	80.18%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	874	4.292	35.915	76.77%
Birds Cry Warning	795	5.625	42.118	77.48%
Blood Draws Predators	1005	5.679	41.261	77.91%
Call of the Dahan Ways	16239	4.134	35.91	80.36%
Call To Bloodshed	2012	3.84	33.645	76.64%
Call to Ferocity	2027	5.891	44.624	84.21%
Call to Guard	1803	5.742	41.473	78.09%
Call To Isolation	8145	5.291	41.029	82.69%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	7505	3.541	31.058	78.95%
Angry Bears	175	4.097	34.869	78.86%
Bargains of Power and Protection	816	5.646	40.077	74.88%
Blazing Renewal	2876	4.991	33.079	67.52%
Bloodwrack Plague	5858	5.932	40.75	77.3%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	5888	4.809	36.136	77.31%
Cleansing Floods	12673	4.554	35.087	77.87%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	2910	4.674	36.88	79.38%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	2493	3.724	29.655	71.76%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	774	5.142	32.871	68.6%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Call of the Deeps	85.46%
Grasping Tide	92.26%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers	75.59%
Tidal Boon	77.25%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	19444	22.35	15.77%
II	62580	30.84	59.13%
III	80972	34.35	86.5%
IV	45786	37.52	99.46%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	13485
Lose: Blight pool ran out	34715
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1223
Lose: Scenario condition	2816
Lose: Spirit destroyed	895
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2225
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	24661
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	48890
Win: Sacrifice victory	1164
Win: Scenario condition	5067
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	32303

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.093 Win Model: -0.111

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	2777	14.36%	25.04	91.32%	87.87%
-2	849	13.95%	25.75	89.87%	86.64%
-1	2629	21.05%	23.7	88.63%	85.3%
0	55654	45.09%	18.22	82.6%	83.85%
1	15981	39.56%	24.61	86.28%	82.29%
2	11104	43.62%	28.41	84.77%	80.62%
3	8554	53.91%	30.55	77.75%	78.83%
4	10948	51.38%	35.82	80.18%	76.92%
5	7759	55.06%	36.15	66.4%	74.89%
6	14312	59.88%	39.78	70.8%	72.75%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.434 Win Model: -0.512

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	90942	64.59%	33.17	69.12%
2	65408	46.98%	34.58	77.6%
3	26960	37.33%	36.44	80.53%
4	25472	32.9%	42.04	79.76%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.