Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 44.44% 26.03 80.56% 0.021 0.4495 0.0
Blitz 0 2477 47.97% 32.83 68.11% 0.206 0.6615 -0.766
Dahan Insurrection 4 4264 36.47% 58.8 66.32% -0.279 -0.1744 -0.109
Despicable Theft 2 161 59.63% 31.42 63.35% -0.485 0.0492 -0.497
Elemental Invocation 1 318 59.43% 32.46 60.69% -0.142 0.3809 -1.357
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10628 9.19% 50.79 75.53% -0.833 -0.5882 0.136
Powers Long Forgotten 1 554 53.92% 36.9 63.18% -0.481 -0.0711 -0.916
Rituals of Terror 3 624 68.49% 33.49 45.51% -0.781 -1.0511 -1.15
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 352 81.25% 33.16 40.63% -1.272 -1.0683 -1.939
Second Wave 0 6863 43.79% 29.68 78.68% -0.173 0.4503 -0.289
The Great River 3 326 36.92% 36.1 61.35% -0.242 1.3929 -2.252
Varied Terrains 2 42 54.76% 37.26 69.05% -0.08 0.6764 -0.88
Ward the Shores 2 3094 58.48% 31.72 62.7% -0.826 0.035 -0.96

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 105208 64.85% 32.62 69.69% -0.534 0.0771 -0.592
1 Thematic 5873 57.49% 40.87 54.21% -0.788 0.2361 -1.247
2 Archipelago 214 56.13% 35.58 67.29% -0.985 -0.2415 -1.738
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 47531 48.09% 34.59 78.13% -0.515 -0.0396 -0.23
2 Coastline 8528 49.24% 33.67 78.14% -0.041 0.1068 -0.318
2 Fragment 1306 54.44% 30.22 75.04% 0.746 0.9719 -0.191
2 Heart 712 56.13% 28.35 75.14% -0.087 0.372 -0.647
2 Opposite Shores 14578 44.61% 32.63 78.12% -0.47 0.0153 -1.017
2 Thematic 4732 40.49% 45.44 69.06% -0.243 0.492 -0.797
2 Top to Top 2869 48.66% 35.51 77.94% 0.421 0.4607 -0.35
3 Archipelago 150 35.33% 38.6 87.33% -0.611 -0.8053 -0.82
3 Coastline 303 38.31% 36.83 76.57% 0.014 -0.6434 0.368
3 Other 1458 42.48% 36.27 81.96% -0.391 -1.1698 0.03
3 Round (Default) 30736 37.47% 36.91 80.71% -0.555 -0.3127 -0.69
3 Sunrise 193 41.88% 45.04 80.31% 0.298 0.5604 0.161
3 Thematic 1312 34.9% 39.43 76.07% -0.702 -0.4322 -1.023
4 Archipelago 108 29.25% 39.66 87.04% 0.252 0.2064 -1.576
4 Coastline 223 17.35% 48.06 83.41% 0.223 0.1311 0.487
4 Leaf 135 38.64% 35.33 76.3% -0.567 -0.1252 -1.322
4 Other 910 37.51% 35.23 82.31% 0.254 -0.2648 -0.139
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 6317 28.06% 54.53 75.84% -0.486 -0.4689 -0.42
4 Trapezoid (Default) 22774 33.46% 38.69 81.1% -0.867 -0.8373 -0.719
5 Archipelago 45 44.44% 43.53 82.22% 0.271 0.1542 -0.925
5 Coastline 80 6.49% 65.58 98.75% 0.442 -0.1544 0.773
5 Other 543 35.24% 43.72 89.32% 0.536 -0.0438 0.111
5 Thematic 117 29.06% 63.28 87.18% -0.682 -0.8956 0.898
6 Archipelago 59 28.0% 46.12 84.75% -0.802 -0.7191 -0.897
6 Coastline 43 13.64% 45.49 97.67% 0.367 -0.2293 0.365
6 Other 308 17.63% 41.41 81.82% 0.41 0.2064 -1.272
6 Star 83 35.37% 39.34 68.67% -0.835 0.0191 -1.185
6 Thematic 426 23.06% 46.37 77.93% -0.029 0.1674 -0.333
6 Two Centers (Default) 436 24.03% 36.12 86.93% -0.428 -0.2554 -1.196
7 Archipelago 12 50.0% 40.67 83.33% -0.517 -0.4796 -0.652
7 Other 12 70.0% 41.33 66.67% 0.265 -0.2726 0.084

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9343 34.45 58.35% -1.733 0.2423 -1.178
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8135 36.9 62.09% -1.641 0.124 -1.007
All Things Weaken 3226 30.79 49.13% -2.313 -0.2542 -1.374
Back Against the Wall 6997 32.21 53.58% -1.813 0.1247 -1.447
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8888 31.91 55.69% -1.776 0.3415 -1.378
Downward Spiral 25539 28.92 64.79% -1.714 0.2307 -1.112
Erosion of Will 9267 33.5 56.37% -1.714 0.3525 -1.312
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1364 38.45 81.38% -0.129 0.3913 -0.611
Memory Fades to Dust 25261 28.01 59.72% -1.999 0.1111 -1.293
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3266 30.7 54.75% -1.822 0.1464 -1.465
Promising Farmlands 9236 32.36 56.54% -1.854 0.1482 -1.39
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 844 40.2 85.19% -0.212 0.2811 -0.137
Thriving Communities 3330 31.44 55.23% -1.849 0.2162 -1.283
Tipping Point 4261 33.63 58.6% 0.0 0.0 -1.197
Unnatural Proliferation 3552 33.22 56.76% -1.571 0.3728 -1.249
Untended Land Crumbles 3410 30.22 51.7% -2.13 -0.1121 -1.402

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 82515 46.03% 34.15 77.3% -0.165 0.5479 0.048
B 85291 45.7% 35.22 77.67% -0.107 0.57 0.347
C 84829 46.29% 35.04 77.64% -0.146 0.3119 0.173
D 99601 47.04% 34.74 76.82% -0.155 0.5383 -0.01
E 19216 45.43% 37.15 77.51% -0.133 0.3815 0.039
F 30763 45.48% 37.4 77.88% -0.137 0.5161 0.055
G 29261 45.77% 37.58 78.01% -0.091 0.5126 0.112
H 29604 45.14% 37.34 78.03% -0.009 0.6381 0.125
East 15162 37.89% 48.23 69.27% -0.285 0.3771 -0.411
Northeast 10953 34.82% 50.34 71.49% -0.835 -0.189 -0.422
Northwest 9494 31.89% 51.28 73.0% -0.036 0.4843 -0.18
Southeast 2095 41.57% 42.05 66.25% -0.689 -0.1766 -1.672
Southwest 1789 37.36% 41.53 71.55% -0.499 0.4364 -0.627
West 13781 35.92% 48.6 71.05% -0.399 0.3723 -0.45

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13297 0.0% 19.65 70.62% -2.803 -0.5878 -1.093
Not Using Events or Tokens 58232 54.69% 27.51 75.36% 0.17 0.4093 0.102
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8044 16.78% 40.81 89.59% 0.406 -0.5841 0.118
Start of Game Growth 12819 19.32% 40.18 88.89% 1.148 0.6742 0.278
Unlimited Undo 23589 41.29% 37.13 81.94% 0.521 -0.0078 0.602
Using Tokens but Not Events 22268 45.71% 33.18 77.98% -0.065 0.086 0.069

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 24884 100.0% 40.37 100.0% 0.25 0.1772 0.058
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 19108 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.107 -0.032 -0.671
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3580 100.0% 34.07 100.0% -0.594 -0.8113 -0.629
Downpour Drenches the World 608 100.0% 41.17 100.0% -0.417 -0.129 -0.263
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6369 100.0% 37.15 100.0% 0.228 -0.2587 0.065
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4874 100.0% 36.64 100.0% -0.126 -0.7027 -0.326
Finder of Paths Unseen 600 100.0% 38.73 100.0% -0.649 -0.2981 -0.336
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1118 100.0% 43.92 100.0% -0.267 -0.2086 -0.123
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 703 100.0% 40.07 100.0% 0.34 0.2643 -0.237
Heart of the Wildfire 8887 100.0% 37.71 100.0% -0.172 0.2188 0.345
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16317 100.0% 40.48 100.0% -0.005 -0.5975 0.271
Lightning's Swift Strike 17389 112.9% 37.5 103.24% -0.023 0.3496 0.166
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 191 34.72% 42.37 82.72% -0.419 -1.1752 0.131
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 667 43.29% 42.81 79.31% -0.144 -0.7231 0.289
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2601 31.14% 53.1 84.89% 0.764 0.2595 0.623
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 6449 100.0% 36.61 100.0% -0.212 -0.3372 -0.419
Many Minds Move as One 2046 100.0% 38.47 100.0% 0.364 -0.2577 0.122
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4385 100.0% 40.2 100.0% 0.431 0.3622 0.295
River Surges in Sunlight 46131 105.64% 39.06 102.2% 0.456 0.3683 0.064
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 3680 39.45% 36.69 76.96% 0.157 0.5063 -0.668
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 677 39.82% 48.4 75.63% 0.213 -0.1159 -0.326
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 13981 100.0% 41.24 100.0% 0.096 -0.0799 -0.089
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7841 108.6% 34.6 102.82% -0.13 0.3153 0.329
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 63 26.23% 50.95 82.54% -0.297 -0.0426 1.242
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 141 33.09% 46.19 89.36% 0.728 0.742 1.483
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 469 45.28% 35.19 77.61% 0.041 0.0772 -0.518
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 481 39.92% 35.6 81.29% 0.023 0.1064 0.337
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8385 100.0% 40.91 100.0% 0.407 0.2386 0.621
Shifting Memory of Ages 946 100.0% 36.82 100.0% -0.058 0.141 -0.325
Shroud of Silent Mist 1151 100.0% 34.09 100.0% 0.506 0.65 -0.296
Starlight Seeks its Form 1001 100.0% 39.54 100.0% -0.159 -0.2394 -0.122
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3374 100.0% 36.67 100.0% -0.759 -1.0088 -0.695
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 9890 100.0% 39.36 100.0% 0.179 0.3013 0.197
Thunderspeaker 14578 100.0% 38.05 100.0% 0.129 0.1198 -0.126
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1884 100.0% 35.93 100.0% -0.277 -0.5034 -0.126
Vital Strength of the Earth 10195 102.69% 34.1 101.25% 0.18 1.0706 0.213
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 130 27.12% 47.5 83.85% 0.168 0.5699 1.029
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 335 42.9% 32.34 68.36% -0.682 0.4792 -1.217
Volcano Looming High 1968 100.0% 36.66 100.0% -0.152 -0.1827 -0.287

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.43%
Grasping Tide 92.14%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.63%
Tidal Boon 77.36%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24340 22.66 15.85%
II 77524 31.08 59.21%
III 99888 34.67 86.63%
IV 56694 37.92 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3854
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 83112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 42236
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55779
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1487
Lose: Adversary condition 16905
Win: Sacrifice victory 1426
Lose: Scenario condition 3435
Win: Scenario condition 6294
Lose: Blight pool ran out 42829
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1089

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.947 Win Model: -0.125

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.356 Win Model: 0.126
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 111929 64.48% 33.12 68.91%
2 80329 47.12% 34.66 77.58%
3 33895 37.42% 37.05 80.6%
4 30574 32.24% 42.02 80.15%
5 359 24.85% 45.2 87.74%
6 1360 23.2% 41.61 82.06%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-21 02:48:00 (Pacific Time)