Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 52 44.23% 23.77 73.08% -0.293 -0.4762 0.0
Blitz 0 2653 47.39% 32.74 68.83% 0.798 1.0881 -0.639
Dahan Insurrection 4 4480 35.64% 57.98 65.18% -0.547 -0.7259 -0.169
Despicable Theft 2 180 57.22% 29.67 59.44% -1.427 -0.7713 -0.571
Elemental Invocation 1 333 60.06% 32.32 60.36% -0.04 0.7864 -1.284
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 11057 9.37% 50.75 75.27% 0.631 0.1315 0.165
Powers Long Forgotten 1 567 54.27% 36.69 63.49% 0.204 0.614 -0.954
Rituals of Terror 3 649 68.16% 33.54 45.3% -0.998 -1.1145 -1.136
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 356 80.9% 33.14 41.01% -1.04 -0.2651 -1.971
Second Wave 0 7069 43.66% 29.71 78.53% 0.096 0.212 -0.278
The Great River 3 341 36.18% 35.49 60.7% -0.483 0.9555 -2.16
Varied Terrains 2 54 46.3% 32.78 62.96% -0.523 -0.0307 -0.844
Ward the Shores 2 3179 58.47% 31.47 62.25% -0.754 0.1598 -0.951

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 108110 64.71% 32.45 69.3% -0.408 -0.1699 -0.619
1 Thematic 5948 57.23% 40.82 54.19% -0.461 0.1316 -1.203
2 Archipelago 245 51.85% 32.62 62.04% -1.407 -0.582 -2.169
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 48833 47.94% 34.4 77.69% -0.398 -0.2114 -0.276
2 Coastline 8854 48.77% 33.19 77.05% -0.69 -0.5489 -0.461
2 Fragment 1347 54.63% 30.01 74.39% 0.208 0.1355 -0.153
2 Heart 735 56.3% 28.3 75.37% 0.578 0.399 -0.595
2 Opposite Shores 15005 44.64% 32.54 77.56% -0.385 -0.2558 -1.101
2 Thematic 4868 40.14% 45.41 68.82% -0.028 0.5492 -0.75
2 Top to Top 2952 48.31% 35.21 77.37% -0.716 -0.5053 -0.361
3 Archipelago 160 33.75% 38.33 88.13% 0.95 0.4181 -0.827
3 Coastline 311 37.75% 36.27 75.88% -0.378 -0.8198 0.265
3 Other 1489 42.21% 36.01 81.67% 0.015 -0.6137 0.039
3 Round (Default) 31709 37.32% 36.88 80.42% -0.036 -0.0751 -0.717
3 Sunrise 196 41.75% 44.76 80.1% -0.399 -0.8772 0.124
3 Thematic 1331 34.63% 39.22 75.73% -0.664 -0.9564 -0.982
4 Archipelago 113 30.63% 39.45 86.73% 0.205 0.2746 -1.569
4 Coastline 224 17.27% 47.85 83.04% -0.126 -0.1324 0.519
4 Leaf 136 38.35% 35.07 75.74% -1.044 -1.1314 -1.33
4 Other 932 37.5% 34.92 81.97% 0.143 -0.5395 -0.162
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2088 0.0
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 100.0% 0.0 0.4394 0.0
4 Thematic 6465 27.93% 54.18 75.31% -0.581 -0.7203 -0.439
4 Trapezoid (Default) 23340 33.18% 38.55 81.02% -0.053 -0.2655 -0.742
5 Archipelago 46 43.48% 44.28 82.61% 0.349 -0.8439 -0.737
5 Coastline 101 6.12% 60.52 91.09% -0.724 -0.8708 -0.453
5 Other 601 33.75% 42.32 88.35% 0.297 -0.2314 0.112
5 Thematic 129 27.91% 60.5 85.27% -0.455 -0.7955 0.81
6 Archipelago 71 27.59% 44.68 84.51% -0.192 -0.0808 -0.856
6 Coastline 57 14.29% 42.16 94.74% -0.409 -1.0058 -0.083
6 Other 372 17.29% 39.81 80.65% -0.602 -1.0252 -1.267
6 Star 98 36.08% 37.81 68.37% -0.745 -0.1553 -1.216
6 Thematic 528 19.77% 43.89 72.92% -0.964 -0.7311 -0.633
6 Two Centers (Default) 540 22.75% 33.69 82.59% -1.091 -0.6176 -1.223
7 Archipelago 15 46.67% 39.8 86.67% 0.377 -0.6807 -0.613
7 Other 14 66.67% 37.57 64.29% -0.217 -0.9421 -0.371

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9527 34.37 58.26% -0.36 0.3055 -1.1
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8274 36.83 61.94% -0.434 0.0296 -0.931
All Things Weaken 3363 30.83 48.97% -0.622 0.1908 -1.281
Attenuated Essence 27 31.81 62.96% 0.403 1.0484 -0.857
Back Against the Wall 7150 32.2 53.45% -0.51 0.0367 -1.379
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 16.7 35.0% -0.889 0.0299 -1.91
Burn Brightest Before the End 16 38.31 75.0% 0.641 1.4331 0.694
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9091 31.83 55.56% -0.6 0.2566 -1.295
Downward Spiral 26073 28.84 64.69% -0.234 0.4447 -1.049
Erosion of Will 9445 33.48 56.32% -0.194 0.6128 -1.221
Intensifying Exploitation 29 31.03 58.62% -0.174 0.7697 -0.779
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1433 38.29 81.23% 0.782 0.5283 -0.534
Memory Fades to Dust 25788 27.94 59.66% -0.326 0.5009 -1.227
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3410 30.57 54.49% -0.51 0.1282 -1.375
Promising Farmlands 9416 32.27 56.31% -0.8 0.0954 -1.323
Shattered Fragments of Power 37 34.16 54.05% -0.221 0.4267 -1.115
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 32.24 43.24% -0.554 0.4277 -0.911
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 888 39.93 84.01% -0.064 -0.5558 -0.095
The Border of Life and Death 8 29.88 62.5% 0.079 0.2849 0.013
Thriving Communities 3498 31.35 54.95% -0.501 0.3812 -1.209
Thriving Crops 10 27.5 60.0% -0.079 0.4728 -0.434
Tipping Point 4261 33.63 58.6% 0.0 -0.0878 -1.12
Unnatural Proliferation 3708 33.15 56.63% -0.069 0.5981 -1.172
Untended Land Crumbles 3554 30.18 51.86% -0.271 0.4617 -1.325

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 84815 45.78% 34.0 76.97% -0.446 0.4588 0.073
B 87542 45.52% 35.05 77.32% -0.369 0.4297 0.366
C 87110 46.05% 34.89 77.38% -0.288 0.3617 0.197
D 102265 46.78% 34.58 76.46% -0.342 0.5086 0.006
E 20414 44.78% 36.68 76.71% -0.432 0.2648 -0.047
F 32079 45.21% 37.14 77.3% -0.337 0.4336 0.05
G 30381 45.53% 37.37 77.62% -0.078 0.6946 0.134
H 30930 44.95% 37.11 77.47% -0.146 0.5744 0.13
East 15595 37.4% 47.94 68.84% -0.875 -0.0939 -0.482
Northeast 11282 34.34% 49.96 70.98% -0.747 0.2082 -0.417
Northwest 9799 31.36% 50.9 72.49% -0.664 -0.054 -0.213
Southeast 2261 39.59% 41.37 65.28% -0.574 0.0959 -1.605
Southwest 1955 35.73% 40.91 70.03% -0.196 1.0877 -0.545
West 14196 35.46% 48.33 70.6% -0.583 0.5212 -0.458

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13670 0.0% 19.49 70.03% -1.099 0.1019 -1.071
Not Using Events or Tokens 59752 54.57% 27.36 74.97% -0.002 0.2423 0.125
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8273 16.68% 40.77 89.33% -0.117 -0.6942 0.241
Start of Game Growth 13143 19.2% 40.18 88.67% 1.097 0.6376 0.342
Unlimited Undo 24271 41.07% 36.99 81.61% 0.219 0.0416 0.609
Using Tokens but Not Events 23083 45.17% 33.12 77.75% 0.162 0.1224 0.099

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 25640 100.0% 40.19 100.0% 0.107 -0.0045 0.118
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 19489 100.0% 32.66 100.0% -0.34 -0.2863 -0.539
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3727 100.0% 33.71 100.0% 0.045 -0.1064 -0.493
Downpour Drenches the World 781 100.0% 40.01 100.0% 0.018 0.2633 -0.156
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 211 100.0% 32.71 100.0% 0.119 -0.286 -0.794
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6582 100.0% 36.9 100.0% 0.303 -0.2159 0.201
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5052 100.0% 36.55 100.0% 0.112 -0.3312 -0.227
Finder of Paths Unseen 760 100.0% 35.89 100.0% -0.41 0.2139 -0.42
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1165 100.0% 43.21 100.0% 0.183 0.7548 -0.015
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 793 100.0% 39.62 100.0% 0.602 0.4566 -0.017
Heart of the Wildfire 9160 100.0% 37.6 100.0% -0.035 0.1685 0.389
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16817 100.0% 40.32 100.0% 0.552 0.0082 0.393
Lightning's Swift Strike 17779 113.84% 37.43 103.81% 0.218 0.4873 0.297
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 271 31.98% 38.22 72.69% -0.172 -0.9384 -0.601
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 700 42.22% 41.58 77.0% -1.305 -1.6737 0.308
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2771 30.46% 52.48 84.01% 0.562 0.3122 0.695
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 6860 100.0% 36.25 100.0% -0.11 -0.2957 -0.323
Many Minds Move as One 2161 100.0% 38.17 100.0% 0.466 0.1148 0.264
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4520 100.0% 40.03 100.0% 0.35 0.2361 0.398
River Surges in Sunlight 47270 106.17% 38.93 102.45% 0.41 0.3484 0.202
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 3922 38.49% 36.43 76.36% -0.041 0.1285 -0.534
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 890 39.0% 45.95 74.16% 0.258 0.026 -0.09
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 14237 100.0% 41.05 100.0% 0.039 -0.1321 0.037
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7997 109.03% 34.41 103.04% -0.054 0.3553 0.474
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 76 26.39% 47.14 81.58% 0.033 0.0472 1.287
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 176 30.46% 43.6 83.52% -0.24 -0.22 1.207
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 483 45.83% 35.15 77.85% 0.988 0.9149 -0.33
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 490 39.58% 35.58 81.02% 0.003 0.1276 0.476
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8515 100.41% 40.77 100.2% -0.043 -0.2261 0.754
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 51 31.37% 30.65 66.67% 0.21 0.1283 -0.647
Shifting Memory of Ages 1030 100.0% 35.48 100.0% -0.453 -0.1855 -0.292
Shroud of Silent Mist 1217 100.0% 33.32 100.0% -0.96 -0.6471 -0.188
Starlight Seeks its Form 1183 100.0% 37.95 100.0% -0.293 -0.4726 -0.07
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3534 100.0% 36.14 100.0% -0.332 -0.8556 -0.563
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 10193 100.0% 39.27 100.0% 0.384 0.463 0.347
Thunderspeaker 15087 100.11% 37.76 100.11% 0.085 0.0228 -0.082
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 27 38.46% 21.78 37.04% -0.846 -0.7475 -1.283
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1942 100.0% 35.67 100.0% -0.101 -0.1131 0.014
Vital Strength of the Earth 10463 103.1% 33.84 101.44% -0.234 0.3588 0.378
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 178 27.27% 45.8 81.46% 0.814 1.1136 0.836
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 356 41.76% 31.96 66.85% -0.784 0.1843 -1.262
Volcano Looming High 2079 100.0% 36.31 100.0% -0.106 -0.1031 -0.167

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.46%
Grasping Tide 92.18%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.79%
Tidal Boon 77.48%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 26228 21.84 15.3%
II 79613 31.08 59.13%
III 102245 34.71 86.63%
IV 57929 37.98 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4011
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 85095
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 43313
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 56995
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1394
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1523
Lose: Adversary condition 17338
Win: Sacrifice victory 1463
Lose: Scenario condition 3534
Win: Scenario condition 6425
Lose: Blight pool ran out 43809
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1115

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.242 Win Model: -0.085

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.303 Win Model: 0.041
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 114975 64.33% 32.96 68.54%
2 82678 46.96% 34.46 77.05%
3 34924 37.25% 36.99 80.32%
4 31315 32.01% 41.82 79.95%
5 451 22.43% 42.16 84.26%
6 1672 21.72% 39.56 79.07%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)