Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2422 51.43% 31.14 -2.18 66.72% -0.688 -0.1144
Dahan Insurrection 4 4093 37.5% 57.35 9.158 66.11% -0.691 -0.2912
Despicable Theft 2 69 57.97% 30.9 -1.123 68.12% -0.784 -0.5012
Elemental Invocation 1 174 57.47% 32.34 -2.267 55.75% -1.024 -0.5845
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 11306 9.91% 48.6 4.771 75.81% -0.768 -0.402
Powers Long Forgotten 1 779 53.56% 38.06 0.547 66.62% -0.585 -0.1442
Rituals of Terror 3 626 64.34% 34.49 0.915 51.44% -1.232 -0.5878
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 434 83.83% 33.55 -0.571 45.85% -1.073 -0.4317
Second Wave 0 7372 46.54% 29.81 -1.824 76.97% -0.462 -0.0338
The Great River 3 204 35.29% 35.07 -0.102 58.33% -1.939 -0.4798
Ward the Shores 2 3480 57.13% 32.16 -0.709 63.48% -0.8 0.2374

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 82573 65.14% 32.7 -0.844 69.75% -1.822 -1.4888
1 Thematic 4759 55.32% 41.73 1.542 57.68% -2.086 -1.5881
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 37188 47.96% 34.59 0.132 78.12% -0.7 -0.4995
2 Coastline 6607 49.52% 33.57 -0.229 78.33% -0.672 -0.5174
2 Fragment 1032 54.52% 30.24 -1.541 74.71% -0.9 -0.5042
2 Heart 550 55.73% 28.56 -2.152 75.82% -0.874 -0.5522
2 Opposite Shores 11275 43.91% 32.41 -0.849 78.69% -0.751 -0.5215
2 Thematic 3783 41.45% 44.71 2.454 68.01% -1.205 -1.1444
2 Top to Top 2286 47.47% 35.34 0.366 78.17% -0.546 -0.4145
3 Coastline 217 36.49% 37.21 0.178 76.5% 0.035 -0.0032
3 Other 1141 42.84% 37.12 0.696 81.86% 0.068 0.4883
3 Round (Default) 23499 37.36% 36.21 0.145 80.72% 0.176 0.2317
3 Sunrise 159 39.24% 47.62 3.995 79.87% 0.656 0.4622
3 Thematic 1054 34.23% 39.14 0.087 75.9% -0.307 -0.6364
4 Coastline 164 18.63% 47.59 3.4 80.49% 0.693 0.8182
4 Leaf 105 41.18% 34.67 -1.372 76.19% 0.518 0.5639
4 Other 704 37.75% 35.93 -0.574 81.53% 0.693 0.805
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 35.4 -0.672 100.0% 0.216 -0.5658
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 -3.183 100.0% 0.387 0.5422
4 Thematic 5385 28.32% 54.5 4.462 75.1% 0.68 -0.3437
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18065 34.45% 38.43 0.233 80.67% 0.841 0.8753
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 77.0 15.224 100.0% 0.597 0.4691
5 Other 230 38.33% 44.74 2.745 93.48% 2.116 1.8609
5 Thematic 72 20.83% 67.13 9.912 98.61% 2.848 -0.0957

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7527 34.54 -1.929 58.43% -1.92 0.1535
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6511 36.84 -0.895 61.71% -1.797 0.1225
All Things Weaken 1980 29.97 -3.527 48.69% -2.292 -0.1333
Back Against the Wall 5614 32.12 -2.89 53.3% -2.141 -0.0475
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7131 32.14 -3.166 56.01% -1.991 0.2335
Downward Spiral 20593 28.94 -3.132 65.05% -1.772 0.2494
Erosion of Will 7366 33.5 -2.426 56.3% -2.021 0.188
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 804 38.39 0.396 81.59% -0.7 -0.007
Memory Fades to Dust 20308 28.01 -3.551 59.9% -2.011 0.2077
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2012 30.57 -3.245 55.62% -1.973 0.0482
Promising Farmlands 7452 32.34 -2.96 56.7% -1.998 0.2166
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 500 40.32 1.349 85.6% -0.303 0.1077
Thriving Communities 2015 31.73 -2.795 56.23% -1.928 0.1655
Tipping Point 4259 33.63 -2.453 58.61% -1.864 0.3619
Unnatural Proliferation 2174 33.01 -2.017 57.91% -1.89 0.1989
Untended Land Crumbles 2074 29.94 -3.556 51.93% -2.13 -0.0242

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 31475 53.61% 31.76 -1.094 74.02% -0.077 -1.1895
B 34324 52.96% 34.51 -0.197 75.27% -0.003 -1.2114
C 33047 53.95% 33.73 -0.278 74.91% 0.028 -1.4115
D 51180 51.25% 33.95 -0.372 75.19% 0.037 -1.1644
E 4933 52.49% 34.28 -0.446 73.89% 0.053 -1.2597
F 10884 51.18% 37.53 0.636 75.69% 0.051 -1.2142
G 10024 53.3% 37.14 0.577 75.5% 0.092 -1.1654
H 10293 51.6% 36.42 0.374 76.26% 0.135 -1.1308
East 3345 35.5% 47.78 3.152 69.6% -0.049 -1.03
Northeast 3881 39.03% 50.16 3.85 68.77% 0.123 -0.8077
Northwest 3188 36.51% 50.37 4.011 70.36% 0.138 -0.8616
Southeast 458 52.3% 36.13 -1.136 63.76% -0.195 -1.221
Southwest 362 49.31% 36.77 -1.152 67.96% -0.118 -0.7382
West 3472 44.97% 44.17 1.84 64.52% -0.14 -0.8649

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 10396 0.0% 19.59 -6.179 70.69% -2.202 -0.148
Not Using Events or Tokens 45992 55.12% 27.48 -3.087 75.48% -0.029 0.1884
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6588 16.69% 41.08 2.262 89.31% 0.372 -0.3215
Start of Game Growth 10167 19.52% 39.88 1.935 88.78% 0.612 0.1493
Unlimited Undo 18372 42.22% 36.98 0.897 81.43% 0.293 -0.1277
Using Tokens but Not Events 17079 48.07% 32.21 -1.442 77.37% 0.043 -0.0098

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 19287 30.87% 40.18 1.351 81.71% 0.093 0.2255
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 15782 52.07% 33.0 -1.162 73.65% -0.323 -0.0941
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2711 37.03% 34.6 -1.184 78.27% -0.236 -0.3222
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4557 30.83% 37.41 0.283 83.54% 0.118 -0.2548
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3665 37.33% 36.4 -0.284 79.81% -0.096 -0.3564
Fractured Days Split the Sky 676 34.18% 43.3 2.036 78.55% -0.23 0.138
Heart of the Wildfire 7448 51.45% 37.61 -0.09 74.93% -0.027 0.3232
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13177 39.64% 40.0 0.962 80.48% 0.151 -0.1532
Lightning's Swift Strike 15823 37.85% 38.07 0.848 80.19% -0.038 0.2209
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3188 39.99% 36.23 -0.089 81.09% 0.073 -0.2005
Many Minds Move as One 1317 40.35% 38.42 0.69 80.64% 0.124 -0.3912
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3296 34.73% 40.17 1.023 81.98% 0.146 0.1922
River Surges in Sunlight 38939 38.44% 38.56 1.2 79.25% -0.039 0.1133
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 11600 34.64% 41.2 1.072 77.89% -0.168 -0.0242
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7299 45.78% 35.2 -0.142 79.39% -0.074 0.3667
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6886 37.2% 40.51 1.027 79.89% 0.009 -0.0628
Shroud of Silent Mist 440 44.42% 35.68 -0.29 80.68% 0.088 0.0679
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2427 41.94% 36.87 -0.455 75.73% -0.247 -0.2675
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 7283 33.34% 39.7 1.27 83.14% 0.254 0.4564
Thunderspeaker 11678 36.61% 37.71 0.356 78.87% -0.162 -0.111
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1365 61.27% 36.81 -0.29 72.01% -0.023 -0.0152
Vital Strength of the Earth 8445 33.15% 34.07 -1.118 78.79% -0.294 0.5761
Volcano Looming High 868 45.68% 38.71 0.517 78.69% 0.163 0.1401

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.37%
Grasping Tide 92.23%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.63%
Tidal Boon 77.23%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 18710 22.34 15.63%
II 60198 30.81 59.08%
III 77893 34.31 86.49%
IV 44065 37.5 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2083
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 46307
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23339
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 30617
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1179
Lose: Adversary condition 12984
Win: Sacrifice victory 1107
Lose: Scenario condition 2739
Win: Scenario condition 4897
Lose: Blight pool ran out 33398
Lose: Spirit destroyed 878

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.095 Win Model: -0.11

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.429 Win Model: -0.667
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 87705 64.6% 33.23 69.15%
2 62694 47.03% 34.6 77.58%
3 25938 37.3% 36.43 80.54%
4 24529 33.01% 42.03 79.55%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)