Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 40 45.0% 25.52 82.5% 0.197 -0.2496 0.0
Blitz 0 2577 47.73% 32.97 68.8% 0.406 0.8631 -0.686
Dahan Insurrection 4 4373 36.13% 58.93 66.43% -0.29 -0.2697 -0.132
Despicable Theft 2 164 59.76% 31.36 62.8% -0.538 -0.0253 -0.58
Elemental Invocation 1 331 60.12% 32.44 60.73% -0.028 0.6716 -1.283
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10902 9.36% 50.86 75.41% -0.449 -0.4074 0.116
Powers Long Forgotten 1 560 54.05% 36.83 63.21% -0.425 0.1371 -0.964
Rituals of Terror 3 640 68.65% 33.68 45.31% -1.228 -1.5162 -1.149
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 353 81.3% 33.16 40.79% -1.501 -1.071 -1.958
Second Wave 0 6988 43.54% 29.75 78.73% -0.367 0.0951 -0.295
The Great River 3 333 37.05% 36.1 61.56% 0.31 2.0766 -2.239
Varied Terrains 2 47 51.06% 36.36 70.21% -0.399 0.4288 -0.885
Ward the Shores 2 3131 58.32% 31.71 62.82% -0.527 0.2174 -0.955

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 106874 64.83% 32.62 69.63% -0.564 -0.0141 -0.662
1 Thematic 5907 57.41% 40.9 54.27% -0.701 0.2969 -1.277
2 Archipelago 218 56.02% 35.66 67.89% -0.75 -0.1324 -1.791
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 48225 48.02% 34.57 78.07% -0.589 -0.1794 -0.317
2 Coastline 8648 49.1% 33.65 78.13% -0.008 0.1277 -0.391
2 Fragment 1325 54.58% 30.24 75.02% 0.65 0.6451 -0.212
2 Heart 722 56.12% 28.29 75.35% 0.173 0.6475 -0.711
2 Opposite Shores 14801 44.7% 32.66 77.91% -0.555 -0.2016 -1.126
2 Thematic 4813 40.46% 45.57 69.04% -0.177 0.7524 -0.82
2 Top to Top 2908 48.6% 35.52 77.99% -0.157 -0.0302 -0.394
3 Archipelago 155 34.19% 38.5 87.74% -0.047 0.1323 -0.876
3 Coastline 307 37.92% 36.66 76.55% -0.691 -1.108 0.233
3 Other 1477 42.2% 36.15 81.86% -0.633 -1.3518 -0.042
3 Round (Default) 31286 37.41% 37.01 80.71% -0.336 -0.1426 -0.768
3 Sunrise 194 42.19% 45.08 80.41% 0.159 0.3079 0.098
3 Thematic 1316 34.8% 39.49 76.14% 0.418 0.4327 -1.076
4 Archipelago 111 31.19% 39.86 87.39% 0.772 0.3521 -1.633
4 Coastline 223 17.35% 48.06 83.41% 0.331 0.2579 0.441
4 Leaf 135 38.64% 35.33 76.3% -0.553 -0.649 -1.37
4 Other 920 37.32% 35.09 82.39% 0.041 -0.5749 -0.212
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.0
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 100.0% 0.0 0.5654 0.0
4 Thematic 6389 27.99% 54.55 75.82% -0.673 -0.3903 -0.487
4 Trapezoid (Default) 23118 33.3% 38.67 81.17% -0.607 -0.4191 -0.795
5 Archipelago 46 43.48% 44.28 82.61% 0.397 0.0131 -0.812
5 Coastline 92 6.74% 63.64 95.65% -0.766 -0.6588 0.196
5 Other 572 34.51% 43.31 89.34% 0.361 -0.2697 0.128
5 Thematic 122 28.69% 62.84 87.7% 0.089 -0.8858 0.838
6 Archipelago 68 29.09% 46.15 86.76% -0.3 -0.3699 -0.831
6 Coastline 52 13.04% 43.56 98.08% 0.381 -0.5681 0.324
6 Other 347 17.08% 40.73 82.42% -0.169 -0.4113 -1.284
6 Star 90 35.96% 39.2 68.89% -0.495 0.0511 -1.268
6 Thematic 466 21.29% 47.53 79.18% 0.435 0.4806 -0.31
6 Two Centers (Default) 478 24.11% 35.53 86.4% -0.746 -0.2825 -1.282
7 Archipelago 15 46.67% 39.8 86.67% -0.285 -0.5061 -0.64
7 Other 13 72.73% 40.46 69.23% 0.191 -0.1694 0.02

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9464 34.43 58.35% -1.471 0.2593 -1.168
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8231 36.88 62.06% -1.613 -0.0377 -0.988
All Things Weaken 3320 30.91 49.13% -1.8 0.078 -1.345
Attenuated Essence 2 9.0 50.0% -0.178 0.6767 -0.571
Back Against the Wall 7097 32.24 53.52% -1.665 -0.0279 -1.442
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 13.0 33.33% -0.841 0.6075 -0.541
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9022 31.91 55.65% -1.563 0.2795 -1.361
Downward Spiral 25856 28.92 64.77% -1.512 0.186 -1.105
Erosion of Will 9366 33.52 56.4% -1.379 0.5212 -1.292
Intensifying Exploitation 1 16.0 0.0% -0.907 -0.0185 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1409 38.42 81.48% 0.105 0.6056 -0.612
Memory Fades to Dust 25562 28.01 59.73% -1.696 0.1802 -1.289
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3362 30.73 54.82% -1.674 0.0302 -1.436
Promising Farmlands 9350 32.34 56.4% -2.0 -0.1245 -1.389
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 16.0 100.0% 0.05 1.2053 0.0
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 36.0 66.67% -0.461 1.0096 0.182
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 874 40.21 84.78% -0.195 0.015 -0.095
Thriving Communities 3438 31.45 55.12% -1.625 0.2458 -1.275
Tipping Point 4261 33.63 58.6% 0.0 0.0 -1.184
Unnatural Proliferation 3654 33.29 56.95% -1.01 0.7438 -1.231
Untended Land Crumbles 3499 30.27 51.73% -1.709 0.1054 -1.391

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 83782 45.94% 34.17 77.29% -0.254 0.5238 0.059
B 86493 45.63% 35.22 77.65% -0.195 0.508 0.356
C 86063 46.19% 35.05 77.68% -0.031 0.497 0.18
D 101010 46.93% 34.76 76.83% -0.149 0.5854 0.003
E 19878 45.18% 37.08 77.45% -0.345 0.2393 0.001
F 31504 45.43% 37.35 77.69% -0.298 0.4089 0.027
G 29888 45.64% 37.59 78.0% 0.049 0.6912 0.127
H 30351 45.09% 37.37 78.0% -0.061 0.5845 0.129
East 15368 37.7% 48.33 69.35% -0.522 0.0699 -0.459
Northeast 11108 34.64% 50.42 71.58% -0.749 -0.0722 -0.416
Northwest 9646 31.66% 51.35 73.07% -0.176 0.2616 -0.173
Southeast 2160 40.78% 42.44 66.9% -0.539 0.1249 -1.645
Southwest 1854 36.75% 42.02 72.11% 0.771 1.9429 -0.626
West 13979 35.74% 48.7 71.11% -0.296 0.5218 -0.453

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13482 0.0% 19.65 70.52% -2.461 -0.3857 -1.129
Not Using Events or Tokens 59012 54.69% 27.52 75.32% 0.092 0.2632 0.106
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8175 16.7% 40.95 89.71% 0.462 -0.5974 0.247
Start of Game Growth 13010 19.22% 40.32 88.95% 1.376 0.9543 0.309
Unlimited Undo 23950 41.31% 37.18 81.97% 0.403 -0.0119 0.617
Using Tokens but Not Events 22709 45.5% 33.28 78.07% -0.063 0.0522 0.09

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 25284 100.0% 40.44 100.0% 0.317 0.1382 0.117
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 19288 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.102 -0.0878 -0.59
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3652 100.0% 34.01 100.0% 0.009 -0.2362 -0.535
Downpour Drenches the World 708 100.0% 41.65 100.0% -0.304 0.0831 -0.182
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 20 100.0% 28.4 100.0% -0.862 -0.6271 -0.896
Eyes Watch From the Trees 6487 100.0% 37.11 100.0% 0.214 -0.2597 0.127
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4966 100.0% 36.76 100.0% -0.277 -0.7233 -0.241
Finder of Paths Unseen 683 100.0% 38.53 100.0% -0.487 -0.123 -0.3
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1143 100.0% 43.8 100.0% 0.255 0.3585 -0.094
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 755 100.0% 40.34 100.0% 0.848 0.7835 -0.115
Heart of the Wildfire 9049 100.0% 37.82 100.0% 0.101 0.3602 0.389
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16622 100.0% 40.48 100.0% 0.338 -0.2456 0.353
Lightning's Swift Strike 17598 113.43% 37.55 103.43% 0.222 0.4901 0.244
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 245 32.14% 39.94 76.73% -0.115 -0.9294 -0.574
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 673 43.18% 42.58 78.9% -1.0 -1.5424 0.313
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 2696 30.67% 53.15 85.01% 0.965 0.4873 0.694
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 6677 100.0% 36.62 100.0% -0.407 -0.5281 -0.384
Many Minds Move as One 2107 100.0% 38.43 100.0% 0.34 -0.2828 0.222
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4468 100.0% 40.2 100.0% 0.052 -0.0318 0.356
River Surges in Sunlight 46796 105.92% 39.08 102.27% 0.381 0.1894 0.146
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 3822 39.04% 36.8 77.05% 0.07 0.3579 -0.581
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 795 39.48% 47.83 76.86% 0.447 0.0845 -0.185
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 14121 100.0% 41.19 100.0% -0.099 -0.2728 -0.028
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7910 108.82% 34.58 102.9% 0.183 0.5762 0.416
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 70 27.27% 48.27 82.86% -0.138 -0.0411 1.244
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 157 30.97% 45.74 88.54% 0.107 0.1821 1.394
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 479 45.59% 35.09 77.66% 0.482 0.4464 -0.463
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 485 40.0% 35.54 81.03% -0.518 -0.5147 0.404
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8462 100.01% 40.89 100.0% 0.187 -0.0134 0.704
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0% 0.093 0.3876 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 983 100.0% 36.48 100.0% 0.084 0.3127 -0.274
Shroud of Silent Mist 1189 100.0% 33.88 100.0% -0.354 -0.1701 -0.209
Starlight Seeks its Form 1107 100.0% 39.04 100.0% -0.315 -0.471 -0.091
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3458 100.0% 36.56 100.0% -0.858 -1.1218 -0.616
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 10067 100.0% 39.47 100.0% 0.599 0.6622 0.302
Thunderspeaker 14837 100.01% 38.07 100.01% 0.295 0.2187 -0.049
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 2 0.0% 11.5 50.0% -0.659 -0.4536 -0.645
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1913 100.0% 35.92 100.0% 0.085 -0.1773 -0.05
Vital Strength of the Earth 10318 102.88% 34.07 101.33% -0.06 0.693 0.297
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 155 30.28% 47.19 83.87% 0.558 1.1364 0.961
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 348 42.15% 32.36 67.82% -0.874 0.2765 -1.36
Volcano Looming High 2034 100.0% 36.68 100.0% 0.155 0.1509 -0.197

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.4%
Grasping Tide 92.15%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.65%
Tidal Boon 77.4%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24880 22.63 15.93%
II 78790 31.12 59.24%
III 101378 34.7 86.65%
IV 57515 37.97 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3960
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 84377
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 42927
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 56589
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 111
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1513
Lose: Adversary condition 17185
Win: Sacrifice victory 1450
Lose: Scenario condition 3505
Win: Scenario condition 6398
Lose: Blight pool ran out 43450
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1098

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.634 Win Model: -0.134

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.361 Win Model: 0.02
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 113664 64.47% 33.12 68.87%
2 81510 47.08% 34.66 77.5%
3 34473 37.34% 37.14 80.61%
4 31001 32.11% 41.99 80.19%
5 404 23.26% 44.51 87.38%
6 1511 22.7% 41.59 82.73%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)