Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2359 51.1% 31.25 -2.143 66.77% -0.687 -0.1059
Dahan Insurrection 4 3925 37.74% 57.12 9.071 65.5% -0.709 -0.3059
Despicable Theft 2 41 48.78% 32.27 -0.591 70.73% -0.594 -0.2441
Elemental Invocation 1 145 56.55% 33.61 -1.895 57.93% -0.869 -0.4967
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10856 10.04% 48.31 4.672 75.66% -0.773 -0.408
Powers Long Forgotten 1 764 53.56% 38.16 0.565 66.75% -0.583 -0.1423
Rituals of Terror 3 596 64.05% 34.67 0.956 51.51% -1.235 -0.601
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 420 84.01% 33.4 -0.673 45.24% -1.083 -0.4424
Second Wave 0 7055 46.56% 29.86 -1.798 76.91% -0.462 -0.0378
The Great River 3 170 34.12% 35.74 0.157 60.0% -1.924 -0.5027
Ward the Shores 2 3371 57.3% 32.14 -0.729 63.25% -0.798 0.2437

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 79076 65.2% 32.72 -0.838 69.66% -1.744 -1.4165
1 Thematic 4575 55.31% 41.98 1.642 57.49% -2.007 -1.5332
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 35510 47.92% 34.65 0.147 78.03% -0.656 -0.4588
2 Coastline 6267 49.5% 33.44 -0.279 78.35% -0.625 -0.4741
2 Fragment 982 54.49% 30.33 -1.499 74.85% -0.85 -0.4457
2 Heart 530 55.76% 28.31 -2.289 75.09% -0.881 -0.569
2 Opposite Shores 10735 43.99% 32.4 -0.862 78.49% -0.71 -0.4867
2 Thematic 3598 41.64% 44.56 2.419 68.18% -1.156 -1.1277
2 Top to Top 2200 46.92% 35.35 0.358 77.95% -0.51 -0.37
3 Coastline 200 36.08% 37.63 0.316 76.5% 0.035 -0.0116
3 Other 1074 43.92% 36.71 0.529 81.19% 0.057 0.4954
3 Round (Default) 22426 37.64% 36.15 0.128 80.45% 0.181 0.2391
3 Sunrise 157 39.74% 47.89 4.107 79.62% 0.68 0.4825
3 Thematic 1032 34.09% 39.15 0.126 75.87% -0.289 -0.65
4 Coastline 146 17.48% 46.62 2.923 79.45% 0.584 0.7546
4 Leaf 100 40.21% 34.66 -1.425 75.0% 0.414 0.4772
4 Other 659 37.69% 35.99 -0.562 81.03% 0.662 0.7935
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 35.4 -0.687 100.0% 0.214 -0.5664
4 Snake 5 20.0% 28.2 -3.174 100.0% 0.386 0.5412
4 Thematic 5191 28.36% 54.32 4.426 74.86% 0.651 -0.4093
4 Trapezoid (Default) 17163 34.75% 38.4 0.234 80.49% 0.827 0.8647
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 77.0 15.298 100.0% 0.601 0.4717
5 Other 208 39.51% 44.51 2.661 92.79% 1.988 1.7891
5 Thematic 62 22.58% 69.34 10.731 98.39% 2.78 -0.1768

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7249 34.65 -1.889 58.6% -1.906 0.1648
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6257 36.78 -0.932 61.6% -1.791 0.131
All Things Weaken 1788 29.78 -3.636 47.93% -2.314 -0.1601
Back Against the Wall 5379 32.11 -2.897 53.26% -2.136 -0.0398
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6896 32.16 -3.166 55.9% -1.986 0.2393
Downward Spiral 19838 28.9 -3.158 64.88% -1.775 0.2437
Erosion of Will 7077 33.48 -2.438 56.22% -2.017 0.1931
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 736 38.35 0.397 81.52% -0.699 -0.0056
Memory Fades to Dust 19575 28.09 -3.528 59.86% -2.005 0.2102
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1824 30.58 -3.249 55.37% -1.973 0.0441
Promising Farmlands 7195 32.28 -2.995 56.47% -1.998 0.2153
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 435 40.97 1.583 84.83% -0.326 0.1043
Thriving Communities 1817 31.56 -2.853 55.7% -1.93 0.1654
Tipping Point 4259 33.63 -2.452 58.61% -1.857 0.3647
Unnatural Proliferation 1931 32.71 -2.14 57.22% -1.908 0.1786
Untended Land Crumbles 1866 29.94 -3.591 51.29% -2.143 -0.0464

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 30220 53.62% 31.8 -1.089 73.95% -0.085 -1.1862
B 32947 53.03% 34.46 -0.214 75.18% -0.01 -1.2061
C 31723 54.02% 33.69 -0.293 74.78% 0.018 -1.4104
D 49099 51.4% 33.93 -0.381 74.99% 0.025 -1.1661
E 4419 52.59% 34.27 -0.425 73.79% 0.052 -1.247
F 10207 51.47% 37.67 0.682 75.5% 0.043 -1.2116
G 9444 53.72% 37.24 0.607 75.1% 0.076 -1.1666
H 9684 51.59% 36.56 0.424 76.2% 0.13 -1.1269
East 3220 35.39% 47.69 3.143 69.63% -0.05 -1.0096
Northeast 3740 39.27% 49.96 3.776 68.21% 0.099 -0.802
Northwest 3090 36.6% 50.38 4.036 70.49% 0.144 -0.8313
Southeast 422 52.49% 36.28 -1.048 64.45% -0.157 -1.1612
Southwest 327 49.69% 36.87 -1.07 68.81% -0.067 -0.6669
West 3367 45.25% 43.98 1.781 64.42% -0.145 -0.8446

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9949 0.0% 19.57 -6.211 70.31% -2.218 -0.169
Not Using Events or Tokens 44068 55.16% 27.51 -3.084 75.4% -0.024 0.1968
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6363 16.74% 41.2 2.31 89.28% 0.396 -0.309
Start of Game Growth 9789 19.49% 39.96 1.947 88.68% 0.598 0.1467
Unlimited Undo 17567 42.54% 37.07 0.926 81.25% 0.294 -0.1229
Using Tokens but Not Events 16365 48.66% 32.05 -1.494 77.05% 0.044 -0.0066

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 18377 31.1% 40.24 1.375 81.52% 0.092 0.2282
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 15239 52.15% 32.98 -1.175 73.46% -0.32 -0.0885
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2589 37.47% 34.61 -1.188 77.87% -0.237 -0.3235
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4285 31.66% 37.46 0.291 82.82% 0.095 -0.2748
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3436 37.25% 36.42 -0.264 79.74% -0.077 -0.3326
Fractured Days Split the Sky 613 34.1% 43.13 2.023 77.98% -0.259 0.1024
Heart of the Wildfire 7242 51.46% 37.61 -0.074 74.95% -0.012 0.337
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12594 39.98% 39.82 0.91 80.26% 0.154 -0.1482
Lightning's Swift Strike 15097 38.01% 37.87 0.771 79.95% -0.048 0.2135
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2704 39.51% 36.44 -0.059 81.03% 0.062 -0.2275
Many Minds Move as One 1199 40.32% 38.52 0.816 80.98% 0.179 -0.3478
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3114 35.24% 39.89 0.94 81.79% 0.149 0.193
River Surges in Sunlight 37181 38.66% 38.54 1.216 79.08% -0.031 0.122
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 11231 34.84% 41.09 1.034 77.62% -0.169 -0.0248
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7037 45.68% 35.2 -0.154 79.34% -0.068 0.3738
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6664 37.25% 40.54 1.05 79.68% 0.013 -0.0592
Shroud of Silent Mist 275 45.69% 37.16 0.2 78.91% 0.025 0.0017
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2273 41.99% 37.03 -0.371 75.85% -0.224 -0.2443
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 6922 33.29% 39.75 1.29 82.91% 0.251 0.46
Thunderspeaker 11213 36.88% 37.65 0.331 78.67% -0.158 -0.1039
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1271 60.92% 36.79 -0.307 72.15% -0.009 0.005
Vital Strength of the Earth 8149 33.19% 34.11 -1.093 78.75% -0.28 0.5879
Volcano Looming High 690 45.52% 38.88 0.477 78.26% 0.159 0.1304

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call of the Deeps 85.31%
Grasping Tide 92.19%
Swallow the Land-Dwellers 75.63%
Tidal Boon 77.09%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17974 22.33 15.46%
II 57500 30.75 58.89%
III 74343 34.25 86.39%
IV 42092 37.47 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1937
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43287
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21761
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 28671
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1132
Lose: Adversary condition 12486
Win: Sacrifice victory 1052
Lose: Scenario condition 2635
Win: Scenario condition 4686
Lose: Blight pool ran out 32074
Lose: Spirit destroyed 850

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.085 Win Model: -0.111

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.424 Win Model: -0.64
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 83983 64.65% 33.25 69.05%
2 59810 47.01% 34.61 77.49%
3 24763 37.58% 36.38 80.26%
4 23353 33.25% 42.0 79.31%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)