Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 17.24% 33.03 96.55% 0.736 0.2888 0.27
Blitz 0 54 21.15% 35.43 81.48% 0.538 0.9943 -0.12
Dahan Insurrection 4 63 30.16% 61.52 68.25% 0.449 0.4685 -0.43
Despicable Theft 2 12 50.0% 33.08 58.33% -0.803 -0.2901 -0.412
Elemental Invocation 1 14 50.0% 25.29 42.86% -0.795 -0.096 -0.429
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 365 17.86% 49.35 76.99% 0.359 0.3997 0.257
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 70.0% 27.5 60.0% 0.462 1.024 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 13 53.85% 50.31 53.85% 0.215 -0.0726 -0.879
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 83.33% 26.17 66.67% -0.413 0.0169 0.0
Second Wave 0 206 28.0% 36.83 80.58% 0.027 0.4891 0.476
The Great River 3 3 33.33% 28.0 66.67% 0.0 1.7665 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 47 55.32% 29.19 51.06% -1.012 -0.1838 -0.579
Ward the Shores 2 9 55.56% 30.78 33.33% -0.742 0.0016 -0.118

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2530 48.37% 28.94 63.6% 0.036 0.5858 -0.288
1 Thematic 75 33.33% 37.03 57.33% -0.408 0.5901 -0.501
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 811 47.24% 34.03 69.05% 0.094 0.5041 0.186
2 Coastline 117 36.75% 35.04 79.49% 0.09 0.2259 0.999
2 Fragment 19 31.58% 40.05 94.74% 0.771 0.7658 1.259
2 Heart 17 58.82% 42.06 58.82% -0.176 0.2987 0.449
2 Opposite Shores 209 35.41% 30.51 73.21% -0.426 -0.0727 -0.498
2 Thematic 39 50.0% 37.72 53.85% 0.131 1.0604 0.526
2 Top to Top 47 57.45% 35.62 70.21% -0.073 0.054 1.056
3 Archipelago 4 25.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.222 0.4007 -0.349
3 Coastline 5 20.0% 34.6 80.0% 0.075 -0.3421 0.681
3 Other 31 48.39% 31.19 54.84% 0.862 0.1431 0.19
3 Round (Default) 698 37.8% 41.14 77.65% -0.084 0.1094 -0.128
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 16 18.75% 44.25 87.5% 0.296 0.3113 0.451
4 Archipelago 6 66.67% 40.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.4195 0.654
4 Coastline 4 50.0% 24.75 50.0% 0.0 -0.0727 0.441
4 Leaf 3 100.0% 58.33 66.67% 0.042 -0.0546 0.012
4 Other 15 13.33% 39.2 93.33% 0.627 0.0114 0.645
4 Thematic 41 41.46% 43.78 70.73% -0.106 0.1765 -0.198
4 Trapezoid (Default) 298 32.53% 42.3 77.85% -0.671 -0.4836 -0.197
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.3838 -0.489
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.029 0.1362 0.0
5 Other 49 39.58% 46.59 61.22% 0.338 -0.2927 -1.284
5 Thematic 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.9744 -0.083
6 Other 47 34.04% 34.0 61.7% 0.322 0.0801 -2.111
6 Star 20 40.0% 30.75 55.0% -0.583 -0.037 -1.665
6 Thematic 89 26.97% 56.75 82.02% -0.65 -0.6045 -0.263
6 Two Centers (Default) 90 29.55% 39.7 86.67% -0.731 -0.2679 0.179
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.221 0.088
7 Other 2 50.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3606 0.197

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 163 33.58 51.53% -0.974 0.7562 0.063
Aid From Lesser Spirits 168 37.45 57.74% -0.43 1.1452 0.336
All Things Weaken 161 31.06 49.69% -1.073 0.8044 -0.625
Back Against the Wall 134 36.37 52.24% -0.911 0.7258 -0.214
Disintegrating Ecosystem 195 29.88 41.54% -1.578 0.2644 -0.757
Downward Spiral 158 31.44 58.23% -0.504 1.1944 -0.6
Erosion of Will 165 31.89 41.82% -0.792 1.1081 -0.221
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 62 35.32 66.13% -0.982 -0.4816 -0.851
Memory Fades to Dust 194 29.21 46.91% -1.681 0.1952 -0.524
Power Corrodes the Spirit 167 32.8 47.9% -1.044 0.6606 0.203
Promising Farmlands 180 31.14 45.56% -1.388 0.4879 -0.081
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 43.0 100.0% 0.38 1.8508 0.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 57 38.28 68.42% 0.02 0.2302 0.908
Thriving Communities 155 29.2 43.87% -0.92 0.9504 -0.472
Unnatural Proliferation 184 33.05 45.11% -0.976 0.7783 -0.268
Untended Land Crumbles 143 31.34 46.15% -1.018 0.796 -0.454

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1258 40.88% 35.19 70.59% -0.069 0.7088 -0.098
B 1460 42.05% 35.27 70.0% 0.136 0.8395 -0.222
C 1548 40.12% 35.84 72.16% 0.234 0.7621 0.033
D 1185 38.65% 36.4 74.51% 0.164 0.8989 0.471
E 1259 41.69% 36.36 71.33% 0.228 0.8122 0.117
F 1068 43.42% 35.2 69.1% -0.024 0.6829 0.032
G 895 42.31% 35.31 74.08% -0.344 0.2983 0.076
H 976 41.87% 35.46 69.57% 0.437 1.0823 -0.381
East 231 30.74% 46.61 70.56% -0.156 0.4359 -0.459
Northeast 158 31.01% 48.78 72.78% -0.691 -0.0145 -0.197
Northwest 148 33.33% 50.68 73.65% -0.11 0.3281 0.064
Southeast 138 29.71% 50.74 79.71% -0.304 0.3593 0.665
Southwest 121 33.06% 52.36 79.34% 0.063 1.2343 0.038
West 192 37.17% 48.36 72.4% 0.461 1.2787 -0.18

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 71 0.0% 27.52 56.34% -2.366 -0.2904 -0.148
Not Using Events or Tokens 82 35.94% 21.99 75.61% 0.511 0.683 -0.53
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 7.82% 46.33 89.4% 0.946 -0.1134 0.649
Start of Game Growth 248 10.0% 45.63 89.52% 0.533 0.1112 0.909
Unlimited Undo 525 37.67% 34.61 77.14% 0.41 -0.0058 0.598
Using Tokens but Not Events 514 23.21% 33.54 77.04% 0.232 0.3472 -0.819

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 471 100.0% 44.61 100.0% 0.183 0.0043 0.519
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 39 100.0% 31.21 100.0% -0.655 -0.6402 -0.421
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 107 100.0% 30.39 100.0% -0.02 -0.2653 -1.033
Downpour Drenches the World 335 100.0% 40.48 100.0% -0.055 0.3322 0.092
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 4 100.0% 36.75 100.0% 0.435 0.6706 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 143 100.0% 35.57 100.0% 0.136 -0.3367 -0.035
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 111 100.0% 34.11 100.0% -0.548 -0.9945 -0.432
Finder of Paths Unseen 142 100.0% 36.17 100.0% 0.57 0.9333 0.083
Fractured Days Split the Sky 146 100.0% 56.0 100.0% -1.071 -0.9668 -0.381
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 95 100.0% 36.54 100.0% -0.165 -0.2292 0.066
Heart of the Wildfire 90 100.0% 37.17 100.0% -0.201 0.0579 0.403
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 269 100.0% 42.52 100.0% 0.474 -0.1087 0.966
Lightning's Swift Strike 60 480.25% 35.12 291.67% -0.142 0.1256 -0.188
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 356 36.12% 37.63 75.28% -0.562 -1.3766 -1.01
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 52 30.77% 39.19 84.62% 0.921 0.3788 0.378
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 96 39.58% 42.39 80.21% 0.408 -0.0698 -0.243
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 135 100.0% 37.16 100.0% 0.464 0.3429 -1.059
Many Minds Move as One 54 100.0% 36.98 100.0% -0.367 -0.9896 0.43
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 155 100.0% 47.19 100.0% 0.044 -0.0833 0.821
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 105 100.0% 34.7 100.0% 0.366 0.2824 -0.076
River Surges in Sunlight 51 596.49% 32.12 290.2% 0.334 0.1419 0.145
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 94 18.28% 47.07 70.21% -0.132 0.1556 -0.663
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 328 35.91% 38.75 78.96% 0.298 -0.0645 -0.001
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 288 100.0% 53.14 100.0% 0.407 0.2333 0.433
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10 1307.14% 24.8 650.0% -0.303 0.0896 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 97 28.42% 30.04 82.47% -0.978 -0.8809 0.082
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 140 40.29% 34.94 75.0% -0.214 -0.1397 0.09
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 20 25.0% 32.1 90.0% 0.287 0.2512 0.063
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 8 57.14% 30.5 87.5% 0.228 0.2315 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 160 100.0% 42.31 100.0% 0.094 -0.1057 0.562
Shifting Memory of Ages 238 100.0% 44.41 100.0% -0.516 -0.2867 -0.356
Shroud of Silent Mist 44 100.0% 29.82 100.0% 0.053 0.2368 0.059
Starlight Seeks its Form 275 100.0% 43.6 100.0% 0.193 0.0363 0.552
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 174 100.0% 40.07 100.0% -0.121 -0.3846 -0.015
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 82 100.0% 39.17 100.0% -0.052 0.0109 0.077
Thunderspeaker 117 100.0% 39.56 100.0% 0.034 -0.0427 0.545
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 62 100.0% 35.76 100.0% 0.563 0.3011 0.116
Volcano Looming High 129 100.0% 35.45 100.0% -0.053 -0.057 -0.148

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 77.03%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 83.02%
Guard the Healing Land 84.35%
Rituals of Destruction 84.82%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1038 22.63 16.86%
II 1742 31.12 67.68%
III 1815 34.7 87.38%
IV 692 37.97 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 175
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1569
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1147
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 686
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 21
Lose: Invader deck ran out 179
Lose: Adversary condition 659
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 62
Win: Scenario condition 46
Lose: Blight pool ran out 707
Lose: Spirit destroyed 29

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.839 Win Model: -0.231

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.387 Win Model: 0.364
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2616 48.0% 29.11 63.26%
2 1256 44.52% 34.03 71.02%
3 749 37.76% 40.59 76.77%
4 379 35.39% 43.28 74.67%
5 44 30.23% 38.23 72.73%
6 243 30.29% 45.26 79.42%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)