Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 20 20.0% 29.7 95.0% 0.465 0.2626 0.104
Blitz 0 10 11.11% 30.5 90.0% -0.03 0.227 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 68.42 75.0% 0.077 0.4904 -0.033
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 35.5 75.0% -0.197 0.2487 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 6 50.0% 20.17 33.33% -1.258 -0.7725 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 161 13.75% 47.66 79.5% 0.238 0.5438 -0.327
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 22.5 50.0% -0.152 0.0297 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 5 40.0% 41.8 20.0% -1.039 -0.9175 -1.006
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 100.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.29 0.7053 0.0
Second Wave 0 51 32.0% 28.59 76.47% -0.569 -0.003 0.093
The Great River 3 2 50.0% 34.5 100.0% 0.073 1.4703 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 26 53.85% 29.27 57.69% -0.928 -0.402 -0.612
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0% -0.495 0.6672 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1263 47.85% 28.89 66.67% 0.186 1.2026 -0.482
1 Thematic 13 46.15% 27.15 61.54% -0.144 1.0285 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 345 46.2% 33.62 69.57% 0.021 0.772 0.165
2 Coastline 48 27.08% 31.63 77.08% 0.049 0.6511 0.011
2 Fragment 9 33.33% 44.11 100.0% 1.137 1.5845 1.178
2 Heart 6 66.67% 51.5 66.67% 0.575 1.1138 0.734
2 Opposite Shores 127 29.92% 27.62 74.8% -0.52 0.4727 -0.685
2 Thematic 14 42.86% 27.57 35.71% -1.135 -0.4367 0.489
2 Top to Top 23 47.83% 34.91 78.26% 0.103 0.6134 0.349
3 Archipelago 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0% -0.292 -0.1191 -0.197
3 Other 19 42.11% 32.11 36.84% -0.119 -0.1544 -0.522
3 Round (Default) 263 41.47% 40.24 79.09% -0.193 0.4022 -0.29
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.081 0.1173 0.0
3 Thematic 9 22.22% 41.89 88.89% 0.293 0.2551 -0.132
4 Archipelago 4 75.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.433 -0.2782 0.0
4 Coastline 2 50.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.704 0.8204 0.319
4 Other 4 25.0% 40.5 100.0% 0.779 0.5246 0.848
4 Thematic 6 50.0% 47.83 66.67% -0.038 0.4912 -0.266
4 Trapezoid (Default) 120 32.5% 43.73 86.67% -0.007 -0.0341 0.329
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0% -0.189 -0.7679 -0.528
5 Other 18 29.41% 41.94 72.22% -0.581 -0.4129 -1.148
6 Other 14 42.86% 32.86 64.29% -1.423 -0.6138 -0.992
6 Star 10 40.0% 29.1 70.0% -0.798 -0.0147 -1.129
6 Thematic 38 21.05% 60.08 86.84% 0.062 -0.2169 -0.106
6 Two Centers (Default) 29 34.48% 42.52 93.1% -0.122 -0.2164 0.934
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.042 -0.5357 0.148
7 Other 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.005 -1.1469 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 76 31.96 50.0% -0.97 0.9331 0.061
Aid From Lesser Spirits 80 35.56 58.75% -0.746 0.9843 0.163
All Things Weaken 64 31.84 57.81% -1.006 0.9797 -0.48
Back Against the Wall 61 39.03 52.46% -0.843 0.9731 0.252
Disintegrating Ecosystem 80 28.94 46.25% -1.316 0.734 -0.984
Downward Spiral 73 33.58 58.9% -0.861 1.1324 -0.208
Erosion of Will 88 29.39 34.09% -1.814 0.2693 -0.939
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33 35.42 78.79% -0.027 0.4141 -0.793
Memory Fades to Dust 92 27.63 48.91% -1.302 0.7818 -0.67
Power Corrodes the Spirit 78 33.21 50.0% -0.923 1.0153 0.089
Promising Farmlands 83 32.29 54.22% -0.851 1.1948 -0.441
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 24 36.88 79.17% 0.018 0.4423 -0.002
Thriving Communities 66 29.17 51.52% -1.091 0.8931 -0.171
Unnatural Proliferation 80 31.51 45.0% -1.292 0.6722 -0.179
Untended Land Crumbles 63 30.16 50.79% -0.959 1.034 0.023

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 556 38.87% 33.75 73.56% 0.042 0.8391 -0.186
B 653 44.2% 35.08 71.06% 0.142 0.885 -0.286
C 639 42.5% 34.64 71.83% 0.174 0.7424 0.056
D 481 40.93% 34.78 77.55% 0.345 1.1411 0.418
E 557 41.83% 35.2 73.97% 0.327 0.9743 0.046
F 475 41.14% 35.21 76.21% 0.098 0.8221 0.39
G 411 42.2% 35.09 76.64% 0.157 0.8883 0.289
H 406 43.07% 34.6 71.18% -0.267 0.4453 -0.728
East 78 30.77% 46.35 73.08% -0.5 0.2689 0.0
Northeast 60 30.0% 50.38 76.67% -0.313 0.5465 0.142
Northwest 52 28.85% 55.6 82.69% -0.075 1.0018 -0.193
Southeast 53 22.64% 51.49 83.02% 0.185 0.8913 0.0
Southwest 47 25.53% 54.64 80.85% -0.034 1.0909 0.351
West 63 31.75% 51.02 76.19% -0.225 0.7287 -0.315

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 14 0.0% 27.36 85.71% -0.911 1.2182 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 38 32.35% 21.11 89.47% 0.282 0.4565 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 56 4.26% 38.36 96.43% 0.845 0.703 0.087
Start of Game Growth 86 12.16% 37.47 91.86% 0.523 -0.2373 0.521
Unlimited Undo 266 34.87% 34.41 79.7% 0.531 -0.0734 0.511
Using Tokens but Not Events 138 15.63% 28.02 84.78% -0.027 -0.1832 0.131

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 160 100.0% 41.44 100.0% 0.509 0.3942 0.762
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6 100.0% 20.0 100.0% -0.166 -0.0701 -0.182
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 33 100.0% 29.0 100.0% -0.116 -0.2778 -1.027
Downpour Drenches the World 185 100.0% 39.66 100.0% -0.158 0.0942 0.236
Eyes Watch From the Trees 56 100.0% 31.48 100.0% -0.442 -0.8793 -0.914
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 38 100.0% 38.68 100.0% 0.887 0.3996 0.14
Finder of Paths Unseen 70 100.0% 35.8 100.0% -0.005 0.3583 0.209
Fractured Days Split the Sky 60 100.0% 57.88 100.0% 0.057 0.1133 -0.098
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 33 100.0% 36.3 100.0% 0.521 0.4893 -0.183
Heart of the Wildfire 27 100.0% 37.59 100.0% 0.408 0.5826 0.887
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 98 100.0% 42.55 100.0% 0.933 0.477 0.922
Lightning's Swift Strike 18 722.73% 34.33 405.56% -0.03 0.2441 -0.692
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 176 38.95% 33.65 75.57% -0.113 -0.8892 -0.686
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 28 39.29% 38.61 89.29% 0.412 -0.2305 -0.305
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 32 53.13% 35.5 71.88% -0.142 -0.4083 -0.325
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 43 100.0% 37.07 100.0% -0.569 -0.8355 -1.051
Many Minds Move as One 16 100.0% 37.88 100.0% -0.07 -0.673 -0.18
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 54 100.0% 47.46 100.0% 0.904 0.7189 0.98
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 26 100.0% 35.77 100.0% -0.152 -0.1317 0.09
River Surges in Sunlight 21 736.36% 31.1 342.86% -0.557 -0.5911 0.076
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 45 17.78% 42.56 55.56% -1.602 -1.1708 -0.613
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 162 36.02% 39.29 80.86% -0.181 -0.4816 -0.032
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 105 100.0% 54.52 100.0% 0.225 0.1722 0.303
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 59 30.51% 31.63 89.83% 0.195 0.202 0.106
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 94 39.36% 35.26 80.85% -0.028 -0.3746 0.119
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 6 16.67% 32.67 100.0% 0.326 0.3456 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 51 100.0% 48.02 100.0% 0.307 0.0205 1.277
Shifting Memory of Ages 85 100.0% 46.93 100.0% 0.028 0.1032 -0.18
Shroud of Silent Mist 15 100.0% 28.4 100.0% -0.478 -0.2419 0.381
Starlight Seeks its Form 103 100.0% 42.74 100.0% 0.051 -0.0878 0.379
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 60 100.0% 44.67 100.0% -0.174 -0.3562 0.494
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 28 100.0% 40.79 100.0% 0.525 0.7098 0.143
Thunderspeaker 32 100.0% 40.72 100.0% 0.218 0.2824 0.721
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 19 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.769 -0.8595 -1.121
Volcano Looming High 44 100.0% 41.05 100.0% -0.241 -0.2455 -0.374

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 76.51%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 83.24%
Guard the Healing Land 83.54%
Rituals of Destruction 83.62%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 442 22.56 18.55%
II 751 30.98 68.71%
III 869 34.53 88.15%
IV 327 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 82
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 758
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 513
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 325
Lose: Invader deck ran out 86
Lose: Adversary condition 271
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 22
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 309
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.234 Win Model: -0.262

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.691 Win Model: 0.57
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1280 47.76% 28.83 66.64%
2 572 40.95% 32.51 71.5%
3 290 41.75% 39.78 76.21%
4 141 34.75% 44.62 83.69%
5 17 25.0% 30.47 76.47%
6 89 30.34% 47.93 86.52%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)