Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 25 20.0% 31.8 96.0% 0.199 0.6946 0.251
Blitz 0 36 14.71% 34.61 80.56% -0.152 0.2911 -0.139
Dahan Insurrection 4 43 25.58% 64.72 72.09% -0.023 0.0741 -0.254
Despicable Theft 2 10 50.0% 33.6 70.0% -0.343 0.1559 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 12 41.67% 26.08 41.67% -0.776 -0.2306 -0.486
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 304 16.5% 49.18 79.28% 0.275 0.5063 0.17
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 77.78% 27.22 55.56% 0.434 0.8421 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 50.55 54.55% 0.702 0.4662 -1.194
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 80.0% 28.6 80.0% 0.103 0.3295 0.0
Second Wave 0 155 30.07% 35.83 81.29% -0.095 0.5974 0.71
The Great River 3 3 33.33% 28.0 66.67% 0.0 1.5815 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 43 60.47% 29.02 48.84% -1.382 -0.5957 -0.983
Ward the Shores 2 8 62.5% 34.63 37.5% -0.688 0.193 -0.024

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2207 48.02% 28.93 64.75% 0.275 0.9379 -0.419
1 Thematic 50 36.0% 34.46 64.0% -0.083 0.9735 -0.191
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 698 47.38% 34.21 68.77% 0.333 0.8514 0.185
2 Coastline 99 37.37% 35.73 76.77% 0.516 0.7164 1.029
2 Fragment 15 33.33% 39.87 93.33% 0.332 0.6303 1.19
2 Heart 13 61.54% 36.31 53.85% -0.528 -0.067 0.105
2 Opposite Shores 194 34.54% 30.48 74.23% 0.138 0.6765 -0.508
2 Thematic 33 51.52% 36.88 51.52% -0.001 0.7815 0.308
2 Top to Top 44 56.82% 35.43 70.45% 0.053 0.1814 0.909
3 Archipelago 3 33.33% 36.33 66.67% 0.246 0.0273 -0.362
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0% 0.276 -0.2307 0.677
3 Other 25 56.0% 32.96 44.0% 0.862 0.1985 0.198
3 Round (Default) 576 39.35% 41.38 78.13% 0.182 0.4868 -0.111
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 14 21.43% 43.64 92.86% 0.178 0.3856 0.389
4 Archipelago 6 66.67% 40.83 100.0% 0.541 0.5036 0.59
4 Coastline 4 50.0% 24.75 50.0% 0.0 -0.0373 0.384
4 Leaf 3 100.0% 58.33 66.67% -0.026 -0.1276 0.022
4 Other 13 15.38% 37.62 92.31% 0.076 -0.6375 0.63
4 Thematic 25 36.0% 44.16 76.0% -0.313 -0.2096 0.016
4 Trapezoid (Default) 246 32.51% 43.96 80.89% -0.235 -0.1575 -0.128
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.0975 -0.552
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.015 -0.5729 0.0
5 Other 36 34.29% 46.83 63.89% 0.486 -0.0304 -1.191
5 Thematic 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.2873 -0.124
6 Other 40 35.0% 32.9 55.0% -1.291 -1.2462 -2.036
6 Star 18 38.89% 31.89 55.56% -1.422 -0.6512 -1.513
6 Thematic 76 25.0% 58.29 85.53% -0.461 -0.22 -0.169
6 Two Centers (Default) 68 29.85% 42.84 88.24% -0.208 -0.0163 0.355
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.094
7 Other 2 50.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.086 -0.3983 0.185

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 141 33.18 51.06% -1.316 0.6551 -0.071
Aid From Lesser Spirits 142 38.58 59.86% -0.531 1.2472 0.655
All Things Weaken 138 31.59 51.45% -1.195 0.8543 -0.373
Back Against the Wall 114 37.08 53.51% -1.031 0.9081 0.016
Disintegrating Ecosystem 166 30.4 43.98% -1.281 0.8473 -0.68
Downward Spiral 137 31.31 55.47% -1.043 0.9182 -0.565
Erosion of Will 146 31.49 41.1% -0.787 1.2949 -0.364
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 59 35.75 67.8% -0.785 -0.2832 -0.795
Memory Fades to Dust 167 29.39 49.7% -1.116 1.0247 -0.34
Power Corrodes the Spirit 143 32.38 47.55% -1.576 0.405 0.356
Promising Farmlands 154 31.75 47.4% -1.532 0.4892 -0.081
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 50 36.78 68.0% -1.087 -0.5907 0.543
Thriving Communities 132 27.93 43.18% -1.7 0.3592 -0.504
Unnatural Proliferation 160 32.81 45.63% -1.163 0.7943 -0.154
Untended Land Crumbles 120 31.16 47.5% -0.977 1.0567 -0.343

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1079 41.73% 35.4 71.18% 0.241 0.9773 -0.085
B 1244 42.35% 35.43 70.26% 0.2 0.8971 -0.208
C 1302 40.66% 35.91 71.97% 0.267 0.7369 -0.113
D 1004 39.02% 36.53 74.5% -0.116 0.5934 0.43
E 1088 42.32% 36.65 71.42% -0.051 0.4936 0.045
F 886 44.32% 35.73 70.77% 0.058 0.7194 0.005
G 753 42.84% 35.4 75.3% 0.248 0.8788 0.087
H 806 41.43% 35.71 68.61% -0.138 0.5269 -0.428
East 176 29.55% 47.44 75.57% -0.069 0.5922 -0.367
Northeast 127 28.35% 49.87 76.38% -0.654 0.0057 0.18
Northwest 117 30.77% 52.0 77.78% -0.157 0.4535 -0.071
Southeast 115 27.83% 51.46 82.61% 0.49 1.0215 0.717
Southwest 100 32.0% 53.55 82.0% -0.893 0.0756 -0.059
West 153 35.95% 49.08 75.16% 0.602 1.4079 -0.17

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 51 0.0% 29.86 70.59% -1.489 0.7396 -0.153
Not Using Events or Tokens 70 40.0% 20.63 75.71% -0.368 -0.1417 -0.613
Skip Initial Invader Actions 166 7.46% 45.26 90.96% 0.443 -0.5374 0.572
Start of Game Growth 194 10.43% 44.73 91.24% 0.403 -0.0542 0.849
Unlimited Undo 430 36.43% 33.81 78.14% 0.365 -0.1863 0.608
Using Tokens but Not Events 400 27.47% 33.24 76.5% -0.271 -0.116 -0.798

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 378 100.0% 44.47 100.0% 0.684 0.6087 0.527
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 21 100.0% 29.57 100.0% 0.677 0.7557 -0.077
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 88 100.0% 31.13 100.0% -0.21 -0.4346 -0.999
Downpour Drenches the World 293 100.0% 41.84 100.0% -0.147 0.118 0.192
Eyes Watch From the Trees 122 100.0% 36.31 100.0% 0.424 -0.0791 -0.204
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 93 100.0% 34.99 100.0% -0.369 -0.9553 -0.284
Finder of Paths Unseen 127 100.0% 36.69 100.0% 0.29 0.6461 0.007
Fractured Days Split the Sky 121 100.0% 59.98 100.0% 0.169 0.2504 0.103
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 80 100.0% 36.34 100.0% 0.909 0.8144 0.178
Heart of the Wildfire 67 100.0% 37.13 100.0% -0.627 -0.2217 0.274
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 220 100.0% 43.72 100.0% 0.494 -0.1092 1.092
Lightning's Swift Strike 43 542.37% 35.05 320.93% -0.904 -0.5397 -0.162
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 309 37.54% 37.28 76.38% -0.313 -1.0625 -0.964
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 43 32.56% 39.26 86.05% 0.648 0.084 -0.229
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 82 40.24% 43.15 80.49% 0.783 0.2886 -0.25
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 108 100.0% 36.37 100.0% -0.379 -0.5303 -1.137
Many Minds Move as One 44 100.0% 37.86 100.0% -0.308 -0.8942 0.117
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 129 100.0% 47.79 100.0% 0.1 -0.0695 1.094
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 82 100.0% 33.67 100.0% 0.446 0.3902 -0.209
River Surges in Sunlight 46 570.59% 32.96 291.3% 0.37 0.296 0.148
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 78 22.08% 45.6 66.67% -0.563 -0.1369 -0.565
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 293 37.72% 39.39 78.84% 0.181 -0.1606 -0.147
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 229 100.0% 55.51 100.0% 0.807 0.6134 0.244
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5 2228.57% 29.2 980.0% -0.25 0.2248 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 89 30.68% 30.13 84.27% -0.529 -0.3493 0.063
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 127 40.94% 35.81 77.95% -0.078 -0.0223 0.142
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 14 21.43% 31.86 85.71% -0.74 -0.7623 0.063
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 4 33.33% 28.75 100.0% 0.476 0.5918 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 126 100.0% 43.87 100.0% -0.583 -0.774 0.957
Shifting Memory of Ages 192 100.0% 45.84 100.0% -0.826 -0.611 -0.353
Shroud of Silent Mist 43 100.0% 30.05 100.0% -0.336 -0.2015 0.179
Starlight Seeks its Form 236 100.0% 43.96 100.0% 0.13 0.0147 0.537
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 135 100.0% 41.84 100.0% 0.069 -0.1693 0.17
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 64 100.0% 40.55 100.0% 0.096 0.2264 0.04
Thunderspeaker 94 100.0% 40.97 100.0% 0.999 0.9819 0.931
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 45 100.0% 33.07 100.0% -0.13 -0.3455 -0.792
Volcano Looming High 104 100.0% 36.56 100.0% -1.086 -1.1066 -0.341

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 77.4%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 83.18%
Guard the Healing Land 84.13%
Rituals of Destruction 84.95%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 870 22.65 17.47%
II 1480 31.08 67.64%
III 1558 34.66 88.06%
IV 607 37.91 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 152
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1357
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 979
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 602
Lose: Invader deck ran out 143
Lose: Adversary condition 567
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 47
Win: Scenario condition 34
Lose: Blight pool ran out 604
Lose: Spirit destroyed 23

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.371 Win Model: -0.196

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.751 Win Model: 0.405
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2267 47.8% 28.97 64.58%
2 1093 44.6% 34.05 70.72%
3 617 39.66% 40.94 76.66%
4 303 34.33% 44.59 78.22%
5 37 30.56% 37.62 70.27%
6 198 29.95% 47.08 79.8%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)