Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 34 17.65% 30.82 91.18% 0.354 0.2754 0.252
Blitz 0 68 19.7% 33.85 79.41% 0.589 0.7361 0.747
Dahan Insurrection 4 94 31.91% 51.61 55.32% -0.249 -0.4563 -0.454
Despicable Theft 2 15 40.0% 26.47 46.67% -0.777 -0.0946 -0.603
Elemental Invocation 1 19 42.11% 24.53 42.11% -0.477 0.2545 -0.294
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 490 17.59% 44.36 68.78% 0.293 -0.3139 0.294
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 22.92 50.0% -0.392 0.0962 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 22 54.55% 38.82 40.91% -0.376 -0.2711 -0.476
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 87.5% 31.63 75.0% 0.428 1.4204 0.0
Second Wave 0 261 25.3% 36.87 79.31% 0.292 0.3551 0.535
The Great River 3 10 20.0% 26.2 60.0% -0.045 1.3035 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 54 53.7% 27.85 50.0% -0.179 0.3835 -0.858
Ward the Shores 2 15 33.33% 23.53 33.33% -0.818 0.3914 -0.201

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3186 46.38% 26.65 58.88% -0.331 -0.1211 -0.355
1 Thematic 117 31.62% 33.6 50.43% -0.11 0.4888 -0.515
2 Archipelago 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.122 0.2348 -0.219
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1031 44.97% 31.92 66.34% 0.121 0.2809 0.281
2 Coastline 156 37.01% 32.59 73.72% 0.316 0.3763 1.16
2 Fragment 21 33.33% 39.24 90.48% 0.533 0.4693 1.471
2 Heart 21 57.14% 40.57 61.9% 0.929 0.691 0.688
2 Opposite Shores 257 35.41% 29.59 70.43% 0.121 0.2547 -0.692
2 Thematic 52 49.02% 35.17 51.92% -0.135 0.5009 0.551
2 Top to Top 55 61.82% 34.02 63.64% -0.931 -0.8906 0.925
3 Archipelago 5 40.0% 39.6 80.0% 0.0 -1.0866 -0.258
3 Coastline 8 12.5% 31.38 87.5% 0.89 0.3916 0.795
3 Other 43 34.88% 26.26 48.84% -0.155 -0.0458 0.179
3 Round (Default) 891 36.69% 39.31 74.52% 0.201 0.1599 -0.158
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1962 0.0
3 Thematic 22 13.64% 35.05 68.18% -0.677 -0.6408 0.511
4 Archipelago 6 66.67% 40.83 100.0% 0.196 -0.0184 0.703
4 Coastline 4 50.0% 24.75 50.0% 0.0 0.1222 0.417
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 55.25 75.0% 0.21 -0.165 -0.056
4 Other 21 19.05% 37.33 90.48% 0.732 -0.1178 0.772
4 Snake 2 0.0% 40.0 50.0% 0.034 0.0137 -0.292
4 Thematic 63 42.86% 43.25 68.25% 0.715 0.6981 0.194
4 Trapezoid (Default) 400 33.84% 38.16 71.0% -0.227 -0.4138 -0.2
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0% 0.0 -1.2256 -0.44
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.368 0.3249 0.0
5 Other 67 33.33% 42.21 59.7% -0.048 -0.5559 -1.13
5 Thematic 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.33 -0.046
6 Archipelago 3 0.0% 17.67 66.67% -0.36 -0.665 -0.674
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.208 -0.4359 0.0
6 Other 56 32.14% 33.95 66.07% 0.336 -0.0584 -1.673
6 Star 28 39.29% 25.93 50.0% -0.879 -0.4038 -1.718
6 Thematic 156 25.0% 41.01 57.05% -1.461 -1.0622 -0.88
6 Two Centers (Default) 117 24.35% 37.5 82.05% -0.54 -0.496 0.221
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5893 0.106
7 Other 3 66.67% 29.67 100.0% 0.077 -0.6954 0.296

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 185 33.94 52.97% 0.741 1.0126 0.334
Aid From Lesser Spirits 195 36.7 57.95% 0.287 0.3258 0.667
All Things Weaken 176 30.12 47.73% -0.224 0.2366 -0.566
Attenuated Essence 21 30.67 57.14% 0.041 0.2463 -0.537
Back Against the Wall 151 35.91 52.32% 0.12 0.282 0.149
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 25 22.12 28.0% -0.873 -0.4584 -0.53
Burn Brightest Before the End 19 26.37 47.37% -0.326 -0.0209 -1.011
Disintegrating Ecosystem 221 29.34 41.18% -0.818 -0.2912 -0.476
Downward Spiral 200 29.13 51.5% -0.414 -0.0612 -0.463
Erosion of Will 204 30.76 41.67% -0.313 0.0953 0.001
Intensifying Exploitation 27 23.07 25.93% -0.86 -0.4734 -0.059
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 78 32.26 62.82% -0.133 -0.6586 -0.705
Memory Fades to Dust 220 28.28 45.0% -0.757 -0.2758 -0.322
Power Corrodes the Spirit 187 31.95 47.59% -0.445 -0.1402 0.368
Promising Farmlands 203 31.03 44.83% -0.431 0.1549 0.082
Shattered Fragments of Power 26 36.04 73.08% 0.863 1.0418 0.31
Slow Dissolution of Will 19 31.84 57.89% 0.247 0.7809 0.265
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 65 38.12 67.69% 0.696 0.0179 0.815
The Border of Life and Death 5 19.2 80.0% 0.589 0.4594 -0.227
Thriving Communities 187 29.02 44.39% -0.354 0.1392 -0.317
Thriving Crops 12 21.08 33.33% -0.547 -0.4594 -0.372
Unnatural Proliferation 214 32.17 43.46% -0.685 -0.3879 -0.076
Untended Land Crumbles 172 30.95 45.93% -0.188 0.1701 -0.027

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1647 37.99% 32.85 66.55% -0.103 0.7367 -0.175
B 1836 39.91% 33.32 67.16% 0.292 1.0707 -0.192
C 1952 37.57% 33.81 69.26% 0.379 1.0334 0.197
D 1518 38.01% 34.08 70.49% 0.361 1.1599 0.357
E 1638 40.04% 33.65 67.09% 0.254 0.8831 0.238
F 1386 41.84% 33.15 65.44% 0.164 0.8834 0.047
G 1170 41.2% 32.21 67.78% -0.188 0.554 -0.098
H 1250 41.25% 33.3 66.48% 0.52 1.1678 -0.225
East 364 30.22% 39.24 58.52% 0.155 0.7596 -0.087
Northeast 255 29.02% 39.96 59.22% 0.2 1.0812 -0.222
Northwest 244 30.86% 40.43 57.38% -0.856 -0.1829 0.247
Southeast 224 28.13% 39.57 59.38% -0.16 0.4761 0.643
Southwest 205 29.76% 38.97 56.1% -1.584 -0.4195 -0.433
West 309 33.44% 39.09 56.63% 0.576 1.5406 -0.334

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 102 0.0% 21.46 47.06% -1.418 -0.5347 -0.09
Not Using Events or Tokens 124 34.83% 17.15 57.26% -0.677 -0.3454 -0.41
Skip Initial Invader Actions 296 7.14% 42.36 81.42% 0.903 0.3676 -0.128
Start of Game Growth 341 10.24% 40.98 80.06% -0.001 -0.3317 0.266
Unlimited Undo 736 35.13% 31.98 68.34% -0.085 -0.1069 0.542
Using Tokens but Not Events 727 22.42% 30.85 70.7% 0.073 0.0195 -1.069

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 665 100.0% 40.38 100.0% 0.203 0.0441 0.437
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 56 100.0% 27.05 100.0% -0.618 -0.4966 -0.712
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 141 100.0% 27.45 100.0% -0.955 -1.1226 -1.138
Downpour Drenches the World 416 100.0% 36.69 100.0% -0.186 -0.0072 0.198
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 101 100.0% 36.69 100.0% 0.768 0.0468 -0.196
Eyes Watch From the Trees 170 100.0% 34.44 100.0% 0.008 -0.5812 0.164
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 134 100.0% 33.22 100.0% 0.279 -0.192 -0.142
Finder of Paths Unseen 172 100.0% 34.68 100.0% -0.085 0.6089 0.137
Fractured Days Split the Sky 189 100.0% 47.68 100.0% -0.621 0.0636 -0.122
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 120 100.0% 33.58 100.0% -0.318 -0.4187 -0.257
Heart of the Wildfire 118 100.0% 35.08 100.0% 0.114 0.3584 0.156
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 360 100.0% 38.51 100.0% 0.179 -0.271 1.047
Lightning's Swift Strike 73 508.25% 33.18 328.77% 0.829 1.0327 -0.204
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 424 35.07% 37.69 73.82% 0.024 -0.6725 -0.749
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 67 37.31% 36.85 79.1% 0.847 0.6074 0.307
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 146 35.42% 37.68 71.23% 0.474 0.3145 0.091
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 182 100.0% 34.1 100.0% -0.162 -0.3074 -0.861
Many Minds Move as One 77 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 0.546 0.3246 0.694
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 220 100.0% 40.47 100.0% 0.512 0.5026 0.757
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 145 100.0% 32.59 100.0% 0.401 0.2593 -0.071
River Surges in Sunlight 81 551.69% 29.89 325.93% -0.3 -0.2969 0.412
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 169 13.77% 33.38 50.3% -0.995 -0.7251 -0.792
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 398 34.18% 37.33 75.13% -0.303 -0.4318 0.149
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 404 100.0% 44.71 100.0% 0.438 0.2249 0.297
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 14 1040.91% 18.57 657.14% -0.888 -0.452 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 116 28.57% 28.06 78.45% -0.01 -0.0105 0.197
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 162 38.13% 33.75 74.07% 0.216 0.2076 0.069
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 27 23.08% 31.3 81.48% 0.38 0.3081 0.095
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 17 50.0% 29.65 64.71% -0.108 -0.0495 0.714
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 177 115.25% 40.32 110.73% -0.72 -0.8487 0.24
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 46 41.3% 30.76 58.7% 0.167 -0.1963 -0.853
Shifting Memory of Ages 335 100.0% 37.12 100.0% -0.753 -0.3459 -0.336
Shroud of Silent Mist 63 100.0% 26.32 100.0% -0.21 0.1044 0.188
Starlight Seeks its Form 349 100.0% 41.45 100.0% 0.817 0.5445 0.593
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 226 100.0% 38.36 100.0% 0.258 -0.2366 -0.054
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 109 100.0% 35.18 100.0% -0.216 -0.1855 -0.014
Thunderspeaker 148 115.33% 36.85 110.81% 0.147 0.128 0.619
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 31 20.69% 25.45 48.39% -0.157 -0.2201 -0.915
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 88 100.0% 33.03 100.0% -0.197 -0.136 -0.021
Volcano Looming High 156 100.0% 34.87 100.0% 0.354 0.364 0.199

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 78.22%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 83.62%
Guard the Healing Land 85.06%
Rituals of Destruction 85.25%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1646 21.03 12.64%
II 2150 31.04 66.47%
III 2182 34.74 87.35%
IV 825 38.02 99.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 208
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1887
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1386
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 815
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 489
Lose: Invader deck ran out 217
Lose: Adversary condition 792
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 90
Win: Scenario condition 57
Lose: Blight pool ran out 820
Lose: Spirit destroyed 32

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.331 Win Model: -0.148

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.308 Win Model: 0.172
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3315 45.93% 26.84 58.46%
2 1591 43.14% 32.06 67.76%
3 965 36.03% 38.54 73.37%
4 514 36.09% 39.57 69.07%
5 61 23.33% 35.97 68.85%
6 357 27.32% 38.05 67.79%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)