Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 16.67% 30.25 91.67% -0.256 -0.512 0.258
Blitz 0 76 21.62% 33.8 77.63% 0.636 0.833 0.939
Dahan Insurrection 4 107 31.78% 47.49 50.47% -0.742 -1.1843 -0.541
Despicable Theft 2 18 44.44% 25.28 38.89% -1.196 -0.3837 -0.594
Elemental Invocation 1 23 47.83% 21.61 34.78% -1.233 -0.5297 -0.412
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 533 18.05% 43.4 66.42% 0.467 -0.1776 0.475
Powers Long Forgotten 1 14 71.43% 22.07 42.86% -0.963 -0.3277 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 23 52.17% 40.26 43.48% -0.384 -0.2832 -0.094
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 87.5% 31.63 75.0% 0.517 1.5267 0.0
Second Wave 0 296 23.96% 36.64 78.04% 0.116 0.1826 0.661
The Great River 3 11 27.27% 26.73 63.64% 0.327 1.5439 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 61 55.74% 25.23 44.26% -1.467 -0.8438 -0.878
Ward the Shores 2 20 45.0% 24.15 35.0% -0.363 0.7216 -0.078

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3520 46.68% 25.99 56.79% -0.414 -0.3601 -0.324
1 Thematic 139 31.65% 33.09 46.04% -0.229 0.2487 -0.464
2 Archipelago 4 25.0% 23.75 75.0% 0.33 0.4342 -0.23
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1166 43.16% 31.44 65.78% 0.112 0.1937 0.312
2 Coastline 169 35.93% 32.07 74.56% 0.594 0.4401 1.182
2 Fragment 22 31.82% 40.73 90.91% 1.206 0.9568 1.639
2 Heart 25 48.0% 36.6 64.0% 0.603 0.3157 0.688
2 Opposite Shores 281 38.08% 29.86 69.4% 0.16 0.183 -0.477
2 Thematic 61 48.33% 35.13 50.82% -0.049 0.3543 0.395
2 Top to Top 57 59.65% 32.82 61.4% -0.824 -0.9906 0.947
3 Archipelago 5 40.0% 39.6 80.0% 0.0 -1.549 -0.258
3 Coastline 9 22.22% 31.44 88.89% 0.895 0.381 0.845
3 Other 55 34.62% 25.91 56.36% 0.17 0.7108 0.265
3 Round (Default) 976 36.78% 39.01 73.16% 0.088 -0.0278 -0.217
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.0 0.2798 0.0
3 Thematic 26 19.23% 32.15 61.54% -0.551 -0.4705 0.549
4 Archipelago 6 66.67% 40.83 100.0% 0.22 -0.4545 0.71
4 Coastline 4 50.0% 24.75 50.0% 0.115 0.3465 0.404
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 55.25 75.0% 0.203 -0.14 -0.074
4 Other 25 20.0% 32.28 80.0% 0.506 -0.5774 0.848
4 Snake 2 0.0% 40.0 50.0% 0.189 -0.1571 -0.251
4 Thematic 72 44.44% 41.47 65.28% -0.109 -0.3716 0.207
4 Trapezoid (Default) 446 34.02% 36.6 68.39% -0.251 -0.3333 -0.211
5 Archipelago 2 50.0% 67.5 50.0% 0.346 -0.5704 -0.411
5 Coastline 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0% 0.511 -0.1411 0.0
5 Other 76 32.0% 40.67 61.84% -0.304 -0.5889 -1.136
5 Thematic 3 33.33% 18.0 0.0% -0.014 -0.1076 -0.418
6 Archipelago 5 0.0% 15.2 60.0% -0.984 -0.8331 -0.621
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.263 -0.5376 0.0
6 Other 63 30.16% 33.13 65.08% -0.287 -0.5196 -1.552
6 Star 40 42.5% 25.82 60.0% -0.756 -0.769 -1.78
6 Thematic 184 25.0% 37.79 53.26% -1.201 -0.7801 -0.93
6 Two Centers (Default) 132 25.38% 36.55 79.55% -0.566 -0.4616 -0.003
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0189 0.082
7 Other 3 66.67% 29.67 100.0% 0.022 -0.5909 0.244

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 194 34.02 52.58% 0.666 0.9085 0.468
Aid From Lesser Spirits 209 36.39 56.94% 0.42 0.3424 0.734
All Things Weaken 199 29.4 44.72% -0.952 -0.5598 -0.565
Attenuated Essence 34 32.35 52.94% 0.145 0.2521 -0.639
Back Against the Wall 162 35.41 51.23% -0.092 -0.0341 0.233
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 33 23.18 27.27% -0.719 -0.5177 -0.258
Burn Brightest Before the End 26 27.62 42.31% -0.326 -0.1155 -0.983
Disintegrating Ecosystem 234 28.76 40.17% -0.822 -0.3979 -0.4
Downward Spiral 222 28.9 51.8% -0.209 0.0267 -0.348
Erosion of Will 214 30.32 42.06% 0.013 0.3222 0.067
Intensifying Exploitation 37 24.11 29.73% -0.529 -0.2419 -0.094
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 87 32.55 63.22% 0.335 -0.1587 -0.639
Memory Fades to Dust 239 28.65 46.44% 0.384 0.7205 -0.184
Power Corrodes the Spirit 202 31.38 46.53% 0.16 0.3803 0.339
Promising Farmlands 224 30.58 44.2% 0.261 0.7138 0.11
Shattered Fragments of Power 42 33.74 71.43% 0.855 0.906 0.289
Slow Dissolution of Will 39 27.36 38.46% -0.394 0.0049 -0.274
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 70 37.53 68.57% 0.735 0.0242 0.889
The Border of Life and Death 14 19.43 50.0% 0.025 -0.3108 -0.215
Thriving Communities 205 28.24 41.95% -0.93 -0.5672 -0.303
Thriving Crops 18 23.28 38.89% -0.364 -0.5614 -0.088
Unnatural Proliferation 233 32.07 43.35% -0.553 -0.3376 0.009
Untended Land Crumbles 188 30.13 43.62% -0.182 0.0998 0.076

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1848 38.15% 31.87 64.88% 0.101 0.8407 -0.176
B 2055 39.33% 32.8 66.47% 0.349 1.0748 -0.16
C 2171 37.07% 33.05 67.76% 0.464 1.0468 0.296
D 1691 37.64% 33.11 68.95% 0.312 1.0236 0.414
E 1835 39.93% 32.91 65.56% 0.309 0.8746 0.278
F 1568 42.04% 32.63 64.35% 0.075 0.7456 0.08
G 1306 41.2% 31.56 66.31% -0.002 0.65 -0.031
H 1379 40.9% 32.7 65.77% 0.538 1.1084 -0.079
East 432 30.56% 36.89 54.4% 0.553 1.0915 0.021
Northeast 302 29.47% 37.18 56.29% -0.099 0.5362 -0.308
Northwest 287 32.17% 37.74 54.36% -0.502 0.3071 0.308
Southeast 267 26.59% 36.63 53.93% 0.016 0.7219 0.394
Southwest 240 29.58% 36.09 52.08% -1.933 -0.9434 -0.533
West 364 33.88% 36.72 52.75% -0.188 0.716 -0.543

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 116 0.0% 20.53 47.41% -0.32 0.4558 -0.072
Not Using Events or Tokens 142 32.67% 15.44 51.41% -1.279 -0.8996 -0.335
Skip Initial Invader Actions 330 8.07% 42.57 79.7% 0.781 0.1634 -0.309
Start of Game Growth 386 11.11% 40.51 77.98% -0.162 -0.5103 0.127
Unlimited Undo 817 34.23% 31.88 67.93% -0.242 -0.2482 0.622
Using Tokens but Not Events 820 22.42% 29.95 68.29% -0.221 -0.2317 -1.251

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 769 100.0% 38.67 100.0% 0.196 0.0481 0.376
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 64 100.0% 26.64 100.0% -0.208 -0.0773 -0.659
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 161 100.0% 26.61 100.0% -0.771 -0.9162 -0.892
Downpour Drenches the World 459 100.0% 35.6 100.0% -0.235 -0.0559 0.197
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 145 100.0% 34.17 100.0% 0.444 -0.3212 -0.181
Eyes Watch From the Trees 193 100.0% 33.36 100.0% 0.344 -0.2448 0.045
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 148 100.0% 32.89 100.0% 0.333 -0.1634 0.034
Finder of Paths Unseen 194 100.0% 34.63 100.0% 0.278 0.9425 0.256
Fractured Days Split the Sky 207 100.0% 45.18 100.0% -0.706 -0.1198 -0.169
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 137 100.0% 33.81 100.0% 0.337 0.2419 -0.163
Heart of the Wildfire 131 100.0% 33.77 100.0% 0.226 0.4676 0.029
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 410 100.0% 37.21 100.0% -0.054 -0.4956 0.987
Lightning's Swift Strike 97 466.12% 29.54 291.75% -0.55 -0.3668 -0.212
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 451 34.73% 37.61 73.39% 0.344 -0.1423 -0.728
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 71 35.21% 37.35 80.28% 0.711 0.5427 0.307
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 177 33.14% 36.5 70.62% 0.491 0.3778 0.307
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 200 100.0% 32.79 100.0% -0.467 -0.5994 -0.856
Many Minds Move as One 83 100.0% 37.59 100.0% 0.905 0.6839 0.501
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 245 100.0% 38.38 100.0% 0.302 0.2595 0.776
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 167 100.0% 32.08 100.0% 0.182 0.0043 -0.027
River Surges in Sunlight 92 549.5% 29.46 331.52% -0.389 -0.3187 0.696
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 198 15.31% 31.26 48.48% -0.805 -0.4942 -0.958
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 439 33.33% 36.59 74.72% 0.044 -0.0693 0.128
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 487 100.0% 41.75 100.0% 0.139 -0.0984 0.407
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 15 1039.13% 17.53 660.0% -0.987 -0.4576 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 121 28.21% 27.92 78.51% 0.293 0.2177 0.182
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 166 37.8% 33.23 73.49% 0.097 -0.0091 0.054
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 29 28.57% 30.93 75.86% -0.121 -0.1394 -0.237
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 21 50.0% 30.62 66.67% -0.151 0.0256 0.778
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 192 116.67% 39.83 114.06% 0.389 0.1994 0.328
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 58 44.83% 29.24 53.45% -0.088 -0.4691 -1.035
Shifting Memory of Ages 372 100.0% 35.48 100.0% -0.782 -0.4287 -0.385
Shroud of Silent Mist 76 100.0% 26.07 100.0% 0.495 0.745 -0.031
Starlight Seeks its Form 377 100.0% 41.04 100.0% 0.457 0.1956 0.593
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 246 100.0% 37.73 100.0% -0.008 -0.4853 -0.156
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 128 100.0% 33.41 100.0% -0.319 -0.2559 0.096
Thunderspeaker 169 116.37% 35.87 112.43% -0.176 -0.2103 0.65
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 42 30.0% 26.64 50.0% 0.178 0.1391 -0.849
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 102 100.0% 31.94 100.0% -0.373 -0.2801 -0.058
Volcano Looming High 186 100.0% 34.03 100.0% 0.207 0.1638 0.232

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 78.81%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 83.74%
Guard the Healing Land 85.49%
Rituals of Destruction 85.52%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1926 20.4 11.27%
II 2391 31.01 65.29%
III 2388 34.76 87.27%
IV 883 38.07 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 217
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2061
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1518
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 873
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 699
Lose: Invader deck ran out 249
Lose: Adversary condition 852
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 97
Win: Scenario condition 61
Lose: Blight pool ran out 913
Lose: Spirit destroyed 38

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.037 Win Model: -0.146

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.266 Win Model: 0.197
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3675 46.12% 26.2 56.24%
2 1782 42.21% 31.66 67.12%
3 1063 36.21% 38.2 72.44%
4 575 36.16% 37.7 66.26%
5 73 22.22% 35.19 69.86%
6 420 27.75% 35.94 65.48%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)