Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 23 21.74% 30.48 95.65% 0.339 0.7795 0.296
Blitz 0 20 15.79% 35.45 95.0% 0.952 1.2078 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 32 34.38% 64.84 65.63% -0.872 -0.5697 -0.52
Despicable Theft 2 10 50.0% 33.6 70.0% -0.077 0.4677 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 9 44.44% 26.67 44.44% 0.521 1.1326 -0.486
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 244 16.87% 49.0 79.51% 0.231 0.4254 0.114
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 75.0% 25.88 50.0% -0.062 0.183 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 9 44.44% 46.67 44.44% 0.166 -0.6704 -1.178
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 100.0% 29.25 75.0% -0.509 0.0159 0.0
Second Wave 0 107 33.02% 32.7 77.57% -0.35 0.2227 0.532
The Great River 3 3 33.33% 28.0 66.67% -0.618 1.0206 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 37 59.46% 29.73 54.05% -1.017 -0.2719 -0.688
Ward the Shores 2 7 71.43% 34.71 28.57% -0.436 0.6187 0.058

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1899 47.3% 28.92 65.51% -0.09 0.3554 -0.694
1 Thematic 32 37.5% 29.44 65.63% -0.187 0.4454 0.236
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 528 48.85% 34.26 69.51% 0.214 0.5582 0.254
2 Coastline 76 36.84% 36.68 81.58% 1.518 1.6008 0.986
2 Fragment 14 35.71% 39.29 92.86% 0.198 0.2861 1.071
2 Heart 9 66.67% 41.22 66.67% 0.153 0.7642 0.347
2 Opposite Shores 173 32.37% 29.76 74.57% 0.015 0.393 -0.792
2 Thematic 26 53.85% 32.38 50.0% 0.209 0.7263 -0.061
2 Top to Top 37 56.76% 34.65 70.27% -0.231 -0.0918 0.694
3 Archipelago 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.9775 -0.268
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0% 0.548 -0.1006 0.741
3 Other 23 52.17% 32.87 39.13% 0.766 -0.3053 0.116
3 Round (Default) 451 40.6% 41.33 78.94% 0.223 0.4154 -0.078
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.0 0.3199 0.0
3 Thematic 12 25.0% 45.25 91.67% 0.241 -0.0043 0.437
4 Archipelago 5 80.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.801 0.3991 0.528
4 Coastline 4 50.0% 24.75 50.0% -1.304 -1.1065 0.39
4 Leaf 2 100.0% 50.0 50.0% -0.233 0.258 -0.349
4 Other 8 25.0% 44.63 100.0% 0.643 0.1023 0.653
4 Thematic 17 41.18% 43.35 70.59% -0.444 -0.4387 -0.127
4 Trapezoid (Default) 196 32.65% 45.2 83.16% -0.259 -0.3997 0.216
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.3169 -0.473
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% -0.221 -0.4783 0.0
5 Other 34 36.36% 46.76 61.76% -0.216 -0.3918 -1.382
5 Thematic 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0% -0.189 -0.2236 -0.115
6 Other 34 32.35% 31.79 52.94% -1.804 -1.1067 -2.168
6 Star 14 35.71% 34.86 64.29% -0.704 -0.1713 -1.386
6 Thematic 62 25.81% 56.82 85.48% 0.246 0.7446 0.037
6 Two Centers (Default) 52 32.69% 45.02 90.38% -0.137 0.0892 0.777
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.129
7 Other 2 50.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.291 -0.4808 0.251

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 116 34.29 56.03% -0.713 1.1966 0.329
Aid From Lesser Spirits 113 38.45 61.06% -0.116 1.569 0.787
All Things Weaken 110 32.1 53.64% -1.424 0.5753 -0.453
Back Against the Wall 96 37.94 56.25% -0.522 1.4262 0.012
Disintegrating Ecosystem 136 30.17 45.59% -1.304 0.7612 -0.542
Downward Spiral 115 31.09 55.65% -1.056 0.9068 -0.453
Erosion of Will 129 31.36 40.31% -1.265 0.8419 -0.541
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 53 35.4 69.81% -0.291 0.3251 -0.931
Memory Fades to Dust 139 29.78 51.08% -0.966 1.0913 -0.242
Power Corrodes the Spirit 116 32.44 47.41% -1.03 0.9488 0.486
Promising Farmlands 123 31.41 49.59% -1.765 0.3369 -0.474
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 45 36.29 73.33% -0.319 0.0108 0.565
Thriving Communities 104 28.38 44.23% -1.843 0.2062 -0.58
Unnatural Proliferation 136 33.51 46.32% -1.052 0.892 -0.018
Untended Land Crumbles 100 29.08 46.0% -1.487 0.5398 -0.359

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 858 41.28% 35.17 71.21% -0.341 0.4187 -0.175
B 1027 43.28% 35.8 70.5% -0.147 0.529 -0.227
C 1063 41.01% 35.7 72.15% 0.166 0.6911 -0.134
D 799 39.41% 36.4 75.09% 0.18 0.9067 0.336
E 864 42.25% 36.85 72.57% 0.071 0.6306 0.077
F 741 44.31% 35.9 71.79% 0.153 0.8432 0.183
G 609 43.33% 36.07 77.18% 0.249 0.944 0.079
H 669 43.29% 35.68 69.81% -0.159 0.5018 -0.578
East 134 31.34% 45.99 76.12% -0.178 0.5012 -0.077
Northeast 103 32.04% 49.02 76.7% -0.052 0.5179 0.284
Northwest 92 33.7% 51.53 77.17% -0.488 0.3536 -0.308
Southeast 89 26.97% 50.17 83.15% 0.366 0.8924 0.234
Southwest 80 32.5% 52.21 81.25% -0.548 0.3932 0.478
West 117 37.61% 47.74 74.36% 0.776 1.7765 -0.203

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 33 0.0% 30.85 75.76% -0.969 1.15 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 57 36.96% 19.14 77.19% -1.016 -0.7751 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 120 6.19% 45.41 91.67% -0.057 -0.4255 0.42
Start of Game Growth 153 10.77% 44.14 91.5% 1.511 0.8884 0.792
Unlimited Undo 357 37.04% 34.29 78.43% 0.232 -0.3987 0.735
Using Tokens but Not Events 290 29.1% 32.64 77.24% -0.291 -0.2475 -0.443

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 302 100.0% 44.84 100.0% 0.621 0.5731 0.84
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 16 100.0% 26.31 100.0% 0.356 0.42 -0.381
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 63 100.0% 30.6 100.0% -0.245 -0.4831 -1.011
Downpour Drenches the World 255 100.0% 40.81 100.0% -0.571 -0.1796 0.154
Eyes Watch From the Trees 93 100.0% 34.47 100.0% 0.018 -0.3975 -0.56
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 56 100.0% 36.14 100.0% -0.001 -0.5955 -0.34
Finder of Paths Unseen 106 100.0% 36.28 100.0% -0.951 -0.5469 -0.147
Fractured Days Split the Sky 108 100.0% 59.94 100.0% 0.16 0.2022 0.15
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 61 100.0% 35.97 100.0% 0.778 0.7608 0.018
Heart of the Wildfire 49 100.0% 38.76 100.0% -0.022 0.3062 0.567
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 164 100.0% 43.45 100.0% 0.753 0.1185 1.221
Lightning's Swift Strike 31 568.89% 39.42 354.84% 1.002 1.2752 -0.074
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 260 39.02% 37.28 77.31% 0.325 -0.5076 -0.793
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 36 33.33% 37.78 83.33% -0.826 -1.3982 -0.6
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 66 43.94% 43.15 78.79% 0.837 0.4122 -0.165
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 85 100.0% 36.18 100.0% -0.956 -1.1632 -0.972
Many Minds Move as One 33 100.0% 38.45 100.0% 0.518 0.0062 0.135
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 104 100.0% 48.59 100.0% 0.655 0.372 1.025
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 58 100.0% 33.21 100.0% 0.075 0.1074 -0.178
River Surges in Sunlight 36 615.79% 32.42 319.44% -0.536 -0.5298 0.132
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 69 23.53% 43.99 63.77% -0.888 -0.4433 -0.651
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 242 40.25% 39.42 77.69% -0.246 -0.4889 -0.248
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 196 100.0% 55.6 100.0% 0.537 0.3935 0.33
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 81 30.86% 30.46 86.42% 0.079 0.2178 -0.073
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 119 43.7% 35.46 76.47% -0.549 -0.6262 0.177
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 10 10.0% 32.6 100.0% 0.185 0.1832 0.059
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.451 0.5199 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 84 100.0% 46.54 100.0% -0.033 -0.2948 0.924
Shifting Memory of Ages 160 100.0% 46.31 100.0% -0.58 -0.5576 -0.28
Shroud of Silent Mist 33 100.0% 28.85 100.0% -0.822 -0.5771 0.28
Starlight Seeks its Form 181 100.0% 44.08 100.0% 0.151 -0.061 0.455
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 102 100.0% 43.52 100.0% -0.021 -0.1903 0.77
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 52 100.0% 41.69 100.0% 0.012 0.1229 -0.288
Thunderspeaker 67 100.0% 40.51 100.0% 0.405 0.3097 1.042
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 35 100.0% 32.8 100.0% 0.269 0.1717 -1.091
Volcano Looming High 72 100.0% 37.94 100.0% -0.594 -0.6097 -0.233

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 77.28%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 83.63%
Guard the Healing Land 84.03%
Rituals of Destruction 84.52%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 692 22.62 16.62%
II 1207 31.05 68.19%
III 1316 34.62 88.22%
IV 503 37.86 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 115
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1150
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 809
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 498
Lose: Invader deck ran out 122
Lose: Adversary condition 461
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 36
Win: Scenario condition 23
Lose: Blight pool ran out 481
Lose: Spirit destroyed 17

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.403 Win Model: -0.217

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.756 Win Model: 0.393
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1938 47.22% 28.84 65.38%
2 859 44.67% 33.85 71.83%
3 489 41.35% 41.03 76.89%
4 239 35.56% 45.41 79.08%
5 33 31.25% 36.58 69.7%
6 160 30.63% 47.57 80.63%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)