Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 214 27.83% 34.7 -1.38 82.24% -0.798 -0.225
Dahan Insurrection 4 179 18.99% 50.18 7.018 72.63% -1.677 -1.2764
Elemental Invocation 1 17 52.94% 32.06 -2.016 70.59% -0.654 -0.1885
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1157 11.36% 46.76 3.883 84.87% -0.293 0.0821
Powers Long Forgotten 1 128 53.13% 35.06 -0.54 74.22% -0.851 -0.4043
Rituals of Terror 3 96 46.24% 40.61 2.87 78.13% -0.805 -0.1829
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 53 56.6% 44.0 4.042 79.25% -0.523 0.1009
Second Wave 0 1017 33.76% 33.11 -1.185 84.37% -0.744 -0.3254
The Great River 3 49 44.9% 37.08 -0.224 57.14% -2.526 -1.0413
Ward the Shores 2 114 38.39% 36.07 0.142 70.18% -1.381 -0.3503

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14918 29.65% 39.31 0.681 87.67% -0.247 0.1073
1 Thematic 731 33.29% 40.07 0.91 81.12% -0.773 -0.2755
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4772 40.17% 36.3 -0.569 83.13% -0.272 -0.083
2 Coastline 637 33.49% 37.47 -0.255 84.77% -0.281 -0.1464
2 Fragment 121 45.83% 32.37 -2.131 80.17% -0.461 -0.035
2 Heart 69 53.73% 28.45 -3.454 75.36% -0.601 -0.3105
2 Opposite Shores 902 36.9% 33.61 -1.572 83.26% -0.386 -0.1599
2 Thematic 375 38.13% 36.72 -0.17 81.87% -0.571 -0.5265
2 Top to Top 118 35.9% 35.97 -0.538 84.75% -0.216 -0.0999
3 Coastline 31 45.16% 45.81 3.458 83.87% 0.848 0.8106
3 Other 108 31.78% 37.03 0.023 86.11% 0.037 0.4388
3 Round (Default) 2362 44.91% 36.33 -0.353 80.27% 0.075 0.1066
3 Sunrise 14 38.46% 22.93 -4.561 100.0% 0.643 0.3899
3 Thematic 113 44.25% 37.73 0.33 76.99% -0.159 -0.4982
4 Coastline 7 28.57% 41.71 1.896 71.43% -0.237 -0.1144
4 Leaf 9 44.44% 36.33 -0.619 88.89% 0.468 0.5481
4 Other 101 35.64% 35.52 -0.299 87.13% 0.34 0.4213
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 -3.985 100.0% 0.062 0.1883
4 Thematic 341 32.35% 40.67 1.308 80.35% 0.079 -0.9992
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1544 33.33% 35.55 -0.442 82.71% 0.234 0.2012
5 Other 38 32.43% 35.63 0.418 89.47% 0.794 0.5774
5 Thematic 3 33.33% 56.0 7.527 100.0% 0.657 -2.1103

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 642 38.07 -1.008 65.89% -1.551 0.5171
Aid From Lesser Spirits 615 37.86 -0.945 66.83% -1.605 0.3114
All Things Weaken 670 37.12 -1.348 65.97% -1.601 0.5595
Back Against the Wall 570 36.66 -1.375 65.96% -1.653 0.4386
Disintegrating Ecosystem 630 34.98 -2.442 63.33% -1.725 0.4961
Downward Spiral 721 37.31 -1.354 71.29% -1.411 0.6035
Erosion of Will 664 36.98 -1.605 61.75% -1.792 0.4194
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 310 40.44 0.664 89.03% -0.259 0.4525
Memory Fades to Dust 734 36.63 -1.448 68.66% -1.494 0.7215
Power Corrodes the Spirit 678 35.87 -1.77 67.55% -1.597 0.4233
Promising Farmlands 622 38.15 -1.028 68.65% -1.408 0.8065
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 235 40.79 1.025 91.91% 0.104 0.5211
Thriving Communities 692 37.01 -1.389 68.5% -1.496 0.6111
Tipping Point 1 2.0 -16.347 0.0% -0.908 1.3082
Unnatural Proliferation 729 36.97 -1.452 63.92% -1.758 0.3221
Untended Land Crumbles 689 35.59 -2.02 66.76% -1.599 0.496

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3564 33.49% 36.62 -0.637 85.47% -0.034 -1.1074
B 3698 32.82% 37.82 -0.117 85.05% 0.039 -1.125
C 4166 33.74% 38.56 0.152 85.36% 0.103 -1.2934
D 3007 34.65% 37.01 -0.335 85.13% -0.012 -1.17
E 3416 34.62% 38.78 0.257 85.39% 0.122 -1.1349
F 2853 33.5% 37.77 -0.107 86.08% 0.077 -1.1491
G 2588 33.89% 38.92 0.427 86.17% 0.215 -0.9974
H 2559 34.12% 37.49 -0.133 85.85% 0.121 -1.101
East 280 27.6% 41.42 2.13 83.57% -0.207 -1.1424
Northeast 236 36.86% 39.46 1.135 80.08% -0.234 -1.1036
Northwest 198 42.42% 41.14 1.66 80.3% 0.011 -0.9341
Southeast 209 35.58% 38.32 0.883 84.21% 0.192 -0.7912
Southwest 266 30.45% 36.01 -1.021 78.2% -0.293 -0.9178
West 275 39.64% 41.47 1.58 79.27% -0.067 -0.7325

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 159 0.0% 24.64 -5.055 91.19% -1.515 0.5241
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 100.0% 18.0 -6.764 77.78% -0.362 -0.1418
Skip Initial Invader Actions 722 12.67% 43.39 1.678 94.46% 0.427 -0.2791
Start of Game Growth 1214 14.68% 44.28 2.584 93.33% 0.476 0.0166
Unlimited Undo 2797 28.56% 40.93 1.1 90.13% 0.436 0.0337
Using Tokens but Not Events 2526 15.75% 31.61 -2.744 93.31% 0.043 -0.0036

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 938 31.04% 35.79 -0.489 83.8% 0.043 0.1895
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 536 45.32% 34.59 -0.992 80.6% -0.108 0.1283
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 584 40.96% 32.83 -1.634 78.77% -0.338 -0.4247
Eyes Watch From the Trees 858 31.85% 38.11 0.628 87.06% 0.379 0.01
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 548 36.63% 35.1 -0.67 84.31% 0.126 -0.1068
Fractured Days Split the Sky 401 39.0% 37.43 0.274 81.8% -0.044 0.2897
Heart of the Wildfire 477 57.81% 34.31 -1.306 74.0% -0.164 0.1834
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1357 36.21% 37.62 0.125 83.05% 0.149 -0.1488
Lightning's Swift Strike 800 39.37% 35.2 -0.657 83.88% 0.106 0.3748
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 920 42.33% 38.62 0.613 82.39% 0.22 -0.1409
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1031 41.0% 38.47 0.331 80.7% 0.033 -0.1641
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 574 39.23% 34.33 -0.913 82.75% 0.01 0.0578
River Surges in Sunlight 759 43.24% 38.3 0.682 82.08% 0.22 0.3869
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 719 40.36% 39.25 0.664 79.55% 0.015 0.164
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 490 46.2% 33.76 -1.191 80.41% -0.12 0.3295
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3285 31.58% 36.82 -0.149 85.21% 0.173 0.1088
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1337 40.01% 35.81 -0.906 80.7% -0.067 -0.0862
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 582 36.68% 35.99 -0.327 81.62% -0.055 0.1604
Thunderspeaker 775 33.03% 36.37 -0.477 82.45% -0.069 -0.0092
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 759 58.12% 33.06 -1.713 77.6% -0.05 -0.0141
Vital Strength of the Earth 457 39.74% 30.37 -2.599 76.59% -0.527 0.3375
Volcano Looming High 129 44.19% 33.15 -1.883 79.84% -0.298 -0.3988

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.44%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 91.0%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 85.52%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.74%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.57%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 866 22.34 8.08%
II 4030 30.71 46.87%
III 10321 34.23 89.81%
IV 12098 37.48 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 70
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9113
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1822
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12038
Lose: Invader deck ran out 48
Lose: Adversary condition 1628
Win: Sacrifice victory 38
Lose: Scenario condition 199
Win: Scenario condition 210
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2071
Lose: Spirit destroyed 78

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.828 Win Model: -0.254

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.284 Win Model: -0.333
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 15654 29.83% 39.34 87.36%
2 7015 39.13% 35.95 83.15%
3 2637 44.51% 36.46 80.58%
4 2009 33.12% 36.38 82.48%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)