Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 301 32.11% 35.0 -1.348 78.74% -0.804 -0.231
Dahan Insurrection 4 247 20.24% 50.98 7.308 73.28% -1.571 -1.1713
Despicable Theft 2 38 23.68% 38.71 1.496 89.47% -0.254 0.0286
Elemental Invocation 1 77 44.16% 34.22 -0.763 77.92% -0.469 -0.0296
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1386 11.36% 47.28 4.072 85.43% -0.235 0.1305
Powers Long Forgotten 1 158 53.16% 34.89 -0.74 72.15% -0.964 -0.5228
Rituals of Terror 3 128 46.4% 39.67 2.398 72.66% -1.112 -0.4686
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 70 57.14% 44.36 4.301 80.0% -0.464 0.1782
Second Wave 0 1425 32.23% 33.01 -1.244 85.26% -0.756 -0.328
The Great River 3 79 40.51% 34.32 -1.253 53.16% -2.851 -1.3913
Ward the Shores 2 157 40.0% 36.06 0.375 73.89% -1.172 -0.1353

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 19050 29.98% 39.31 0.672 87.64% -0.385 -0.0521
1 Thematic 1025 33.07% 39.56 0.779 82.05% -0.568 -0.07
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6228 40.47% 36.33 -0.539 83.33% -0.369 -0.1688
2 Coastline 793 35.07% 37.22 -0.283 85.25% -0.297 -0.1422
2 Fragment 162 44.1% 31.94 -2.195 83.95% -0.433 -0.0371
2 Heart 87 50.59% 28.97 -3.148 80.46% -0.502 -0.1801
2 Opposite Shores 1199 35.96% 33.92 -1.47 84.49% -0.446 -0.2169
2 Thematic 483 40.37% 36.63 -0.246 79.71% -0.485 -0.4239
2 Top to Top 167 38.55% 36.28 -0.49 83.83% -0.288 -0.1559
3 Coastline 37 40.54% 43.95 3.088 81.08% 0.586 0.5483
3 Other 154 31.37% 36.93 -0.119 85.06% -0.236 0.1836
3 Round (Default) 3104 43.68% 36.2 -0.395 80.93% -0.03 0.0257
3 Sunrise 14 38.46% 22.93 -4.645 100.0% 0.572 0.3781
3 Thematic 140 47.14% 37.06 0.098 74.29% -0.152 -0.4818
4 Coastline 16 18.75% 36.69 0.196 75.0% -0.032 0.0931
4 Leaf 14 50.0% 40.57 1.322 92.86% 0.586 0.6326
4 Other 127 36.22% 34.54 -0.749 86.61% 0.246 0.3581
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 -3.924 100.0% 0.055 0.2095
4 Thematic 481 33.05% 41.9 1.61 79.0% 0.251 -0.7729
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2145 34.04% 35.66 -0.421 82.98% 0.121 0.1554
5 Other 51 32.0% 36.24 0.505 92.16% 0.941 0.6856
5 Thematic 8 12.5% 41.88 2.951 100.0% 0.904 -2.039

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 839 37.82 -1.066 66.39% -1.541 0.5321
Aid From Lesser Spirits 791 38.38 -0.745 67.51% -1.577 0.3417
All Things Weaken 886 37.44 -1.243 65.69% -1.617 0.5413
Back Against the Wall 756 36.62 -1.369 65.61% -1.681 0.4131
Disintegrating Ecosystem 821 35.29 -2.341 64.31% -1.715 0.5099
Downward Spiral 937 37.31 -1.324 71.61% -1.39 0.6309
Erosion of Will 847 37.12 -1.531 63.16% -1.745 0.4634
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 427 40.54 0.666 89.23% -0.207 0.4853
Memory Fades to Dust 984 36.9 -1.295 70.63% -1.401 0.8175
Power Corrodes the Spirit 863 36.27 -1.599 68.13% -1.563 0.4584
Promising Farmlands 815 37.94 -1.158 69.2% -1.442 0.7728
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 295 40.44 0.894 91.86% 0.097 0.5082
Thriving Communities 901 37.4 -1.178 69.59% -1.417 0.6758
Tipping Point 1 2.0 -16.297 0.0% -0.908 1.3174
Unnatural Proliferation 977 36.83 -1.456 64.48% -1.757 0.3328
Untended Land Crumbles 898 36.13 -1.763 67.48% -1.577 0.5292

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 4571 34.28% 36.65 -0.617 85.3% 0.115 -0.9973
B 4933 33.45% 38.0 -0.05 85.47% 0.207 -1.0005
C 5424 34.37% 38.52 0.127 85.58% 0.256 -1.1832
D 3878 34.39% 36.89 -0.367 85.33% 0.133 -1.0683
E 4423 34.47% 38.84 0.314 85.78% 0.295 -1.0172
F 3731 33.53% 37.76 -0.076 86.28% 0.252 -1.0133
G 3330 33.36% 38.5 0.269 85.8% 0.284 -0.9731
H 3305 34.29% 37.56 -0.102 85.99% 0.267 -0.9985
East 358 29.97% 41.53 2.045 82.12% -0.359 -1.3402
Northeast 295 37.07% 39.05 0.92 79.32% -0.436 -1.3669
Northwest 267 42.11% 40.33 1.442 79.78% -0.231 -1.2306
Southeast 270 36.43% 38.75 0.959 83.7% -0.018 -1.0433
Southwest 335 31.44% 36.18 -0.874 77.61% -0.453 -1.0731
West 366 39.34% 41.51 1.494 77.32% -0.276 -1.0009

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 215 0.0% 24.28 -5.161 92.09% -1.445 0.6088
Not Using Events or Tokens 18 73.33% 20.83 -5.671 83.33% -0.226 -0.0081
Skip Initial Invader Actions 926 12.79% 43.08 1.658 94.06% 0.222 -0.4713
Start of Game Growth 1490 14.28% 43.72 2.41 93.49% 0.615 0.1521
Unlimited Undo 3701 28.25% 41.04 1.217 90.35% 0.441 0.0199
Using Tokens but Not Events 3359 16.08% 31.98 -2.542 93.3% 0.049 -0.0033

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1232 31.67% 35.57 -0.549 84.25% 0.043 0.1758
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 676 45.83% 34.76 -0.855 82.1% -0.053 0.1751
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 764 38.87% 33.64 -1.361 81.02% -0.312 -0.3984
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1159 30.94% 38.1 0.626 87.75% 0.352 -0.021
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 724 35.6% 35.7 -0.477 84.12% 0.103 -0.157
Fractured Days Split the Sky 543 36.85% 39.16 0.817 82.87% 0.024 0.3922
Heart of the Wildfire 585 59.45% 34.56 -1.261 74.02% -0.144 0.2057
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1771 35.69% 38.02 0.257 83.17% 0.178 -0.1257
Lightning's Swift Strike 1036 40.0% 34.74 -0.841 83.2% 0.004 0.263
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1604 41.04% 38.28 0.514 82.73% 0.241 -0.0324
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1317 40.35% 38.42 0.323 80.64% 0.012 -0.1837
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 748 38.46% 34.33 -0.936 84.09% 0.092 0.1379
River Surges in Sunlight 975 43.14% 38.29 0.666 81.95% 0.191 0.343
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 947 38.6% 39.46 0.753 80.78% 0.019 0.1637
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 639 46.6% 33.52 -1.239 81.53% -0.05 0.3904
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4244 32.58% 36.65 -0.261 84.92% 0.115 0.0434
Shroud of Silent Mist 236 44.59% 34.79 -0.825 81.36% 0.034 0.0144
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1635 39.19% 35.82 -0.86 81.04% -0.065 -0.0849
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 713 38.05% 35.91 -0.307 82.19% 0.023 0.2258
Thunderspeaker 1019 33.73% 36.5 -0.435 82.14% -0.134 -0.0833
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 912 58.04% 33.24 -1.662 77.52% -0.089 -0.0813
Vital Strength of the Earth 583 40.07% 30.44 -2.629 76.16% -0.583 0.2871
Volcano Looming High 398 43.29% 32.99 -1.848 78.14% -0.37 -0.3934

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.46%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 90.85%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 85.22%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.7%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.42%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1140 22.34 7.72%
II 5166 30.81 46.57%
III 13413 34.31 90.0%
IV 15767 37.5 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 88
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11860
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2304
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15681
Lose: Invader deck ran out 64
Lose: Adversary condition 2106
Win: Sacrifice victory 58
Lose: Scenario condition 245
Win: Scenario condition 297
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2673
Lose: Spirit destroyed 110

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.868 Win Model: -0.252

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.268 Win Model: -0.333
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 20081 30.14% 39.32 87.36%
2 9148 39.47% 35.97 83.47%
3 3459 43.39% 36.31 80.98%
4 2798 33.75% 36.66 82.52%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)