Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 273 33.21% 34.99 -1.411 78.02% -0.833 -0.2519
Dahan Insurrection 4 229 19.21% 51.19 7.354 72.93% -1.618 -1.2141
Despicable Theft 2 20 30.0% 40.6 2.499 90.0% -0.14 0.2097
Elemental Invocation 1 59 42.37% 34.15 -0.816 77.97% -0.448 -0.0758
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1304 11.46% 46.99 3.959 85.2% -0.27 0.0945
Powers Long Forgotten 1 149 53.69% 34.79 -0.787 72.48% -0.95 -0.5093
Rituals of Terror 3 116 46.02% 39.41 2.299 73.28% -1.134 -0.5
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 64 56.25% 44.69 4.361 81.25% -0.39 0.2511
Second Wave 0 1275 32.41% 33.01 -1.243 85.33% -0.752 -0.3282
The Great River 3 73 39.73% 34.49 -1.219 53.42% -2.828 -1.4069
Ward the Shores 2 137 39.26% 35.92 0.159 71.53% -1.312 -0.2708

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 17540 29.84% 39.39 0.704 87.77% -0.363 -0.0359
1 Thematic 923 33.81% 39.84 0.864 81.58% -0.545 -0.0714
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5685 40.4% 36.33 -0.571 83.22% -0.379 -0.1826
2 Coastline 732 34.66% 36.97 -0.417 84.97% -0.337 -0.1857
2 Fragment 150 44.97% 31.51 -2.395 82.67% -0.494 -0.0898
2 Heart 82 52.5% 28.74 -3.351 79.27% -0.53 -0.2179
2 Opposite Shores 1083 36.27% 33.88 -1.539 83.93% -0.481 -0.2576
2 Thematic 437 40.5% 36.53 -0.34 79.86% -0.466 -0.4375
2 Top to Top 146 36.55% 36.14 -0.499 84.93% -0.263 -0.1231
3 Coastline 33 45.45% 44.91 3.362 81.82% 0.734 0.6874
3 Other 139 31.88% 36.51 -0.223 84.89% -0.224 0.2149
3 Round (Default) 2833 44.32% 36.29 -0.352 80.62% -0.029 0.0287
3 Sunrise 14 38.46% 22.93 -4.585 100.0% 0.596 0.3991
3 Thematic 132 47.73% 37.52 0.237 75.76% -0.011 -0.3721
4 Coastline 15 20.0% 35.93 -0.046 73.33% -0.038 0.1327
4 Leaf 13 53.85% 40.08 1.222 92.31% 0.582 0.6455
4 Other 118 35.59% 35.03 -0.508 85.59% 0.198 0.3295
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 -3.991 100.0% 0.055 0.2103
4 Thematic 424 31.59% 41.38 1.602 80.9% 0.344 -0.716
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1888 34.54% 35.44 -0.458 82.63% 0.124 0.1619
5 Other 43 28.57% 35.91 0.539 90.7% 0.785 0.5857
5 Thematic 4 25.0% 50.75 6.097 100.0% 0.78 -2.1763

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 768 37.95 -1.013 66.54% -1.521 0.5493
Aid From Lesser Spirits 730 38.5 -0.699 67.67% -1.562 0.3599
All Things Weaken 810 37.5 -1.198 66.3% -1.584 0.5694
Back Against the Wall 690 36.78 -1.26 66.38% -1.622 0.4741
Disintegrating Ecosystem 749 35.1 -2.4 63.68% -1.718 0.5078
Downward Spiral 845 37.42 -1.298 71.36% -1.393 0.6259
Erosion of Will 786 37.17 -1.509 62.98% -1.746 0.4643
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 376 40.78 0.737 89.1% -0.242 0.4513
Memory Fades to Dust 893 36.74 -1.38 69.65% -1.451 0.764
Power Corrodes the Spirit 805 36.03 -1.671 68.07% -1.556 0.4613
Promising Farmlands 752 37.89 -1.186 68.62% -1.449 0.7649
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 269 40.61 0.937 91.08% 0.008 0.4384
Thriving Communities 814 37.38 -1.174 69.41% -1.427 0.6689
Tipping Point 1 2.0 -16.316 0.0% -0.909 1.3119
Unnatural Proliferation 883 37.13 -1.361 64.55% -1.727 0.3591
Untended Land Crumbles 830 36.37 -1.696 67.59% -1.551 0.5446

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 4216 33.91% 36.65 -0.632 85.27% 0.094 -1.0076
B 4482 33.64% 38.0 -0.071 85.16% 0.184 -1.0125
C 4972 34.15% 38.59 0.148 85.48% 0.237 -1.1918
D 3551 34.45% 36.9 -0.381 85.33% 0.123 -1.0681
E 4029 34.57% 39.03 0.369 85.85% 0.307 -0.9922
F 3400 33.7% 37.84 -0.061 86.32% 0.252 -1.0018
G 3063 33.48% 38.52 0.261 85.83% 0.285 -0.9569
H 3006 34.27% 37.45 -0.15 86.19% 0.272 -0.9854
East 336 29.55% 41.25 1.951 82.44% -0.417 -1.3773
Northeast 274 36.63% 39.36 1.055 79.56% -0.427 -1.3284
Northwest 235 42.74% 40.51 1.447 79.15% -0.257 -1.2322
Southeast 236 36.17% 38.85 1.038 84.75% 0.042 -0.9627
Southwest 311 31.61% 36.4 -0.817 78.14% -0.426 -1.0259
West 324 40.43% 41.25 1.498 78.7% -0.229 -0.9285

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 196 0.0% 24.26 -5.151 91.84% -1.479 0.5693
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 100.0% 19.83 -5.927 83.33% -0.185 0.0353
Skip Initial Invader Actions 849 12.09% 42.81 1.549 94.23% 0.25 -0.4549
Start of Game Growth 1391 14.07% 43.67 2.396 93.46% 0.568 0.1162
Unlimited Undo 3404 28.55% 41.17 1.241 90.25% 0.447 0.0302
Using Tokens but Not Events 3010 15.45% 31.69 -2.682 93.52% 0.054 0.0029

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1105 31.84% 35.39 -0.637 83.8% 0.011 0.1466
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 638 46.06% 34.81 -0.844 81.97% -0.044 0.1875
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 663 40.12% 32.71 -1.65 79.49% -0.348 -0.4348
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1018 31.36% 37.71 0.494 87.52% 0.359 -0.011
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 663 35.55% 35.74 -0.455 84.16% 0.115 -0.1408
Fractured Days Split the Sky 485 37.27% 38.16 0.42 81.65% -0.091 0.2708
Heart of the Wildfire 553 59.09% 34.54 -1.213 74.68% -0.097 0.2526
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1592 36.02% 37.97 0.251 82.98% 0.17 -0.1319
Lightning's Swift Strike 942 39.96% 34.9 -0.787 83.33% 0.045 0.3068
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1347 43.57% 38.37 0.528 81.81% 0.227 -0.0629
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1199 40.32% 38.52 0.389 80.98% 0.039 -0.1568
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 694 37.99% 34.36 -0.902 83.86% 0.06 0.1048
River Surges in Sunlight 890 43.78% 38.13 0.594 81.46% 0.173 0.3258
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 830 39.35% 39.07 0.623 79.76% 0.015 0.1588
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 588 46.31% 33.65 -1.177 81.8% -0.027 0.415
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3863 32.34% 36.84 -0.144 85.04% 0.153 0.0813
Shroud of Silent Mist 155 44.08% 34.6 -0.926 80.65% -0.038 -0.0611
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1529 39.53% 35.65 -0.921 81.16% -0.047 -0.068
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 667 36.86% 35.82 -0.36 82.16% -0.035 0.1737
Thunderspeaker 916 33.55% 36.35 -0.486 82.53% -0.106 -0.0518
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 866 58.24% 33.14 -1.683 77.48% -0.081 -0.0677
Vital Strength of the Earth 534 40.38% 30.56 -2.54 76.78% -0.507 0.3611
Volcano Looming High 315 44.23% 33.3 -1.736 78.41% -0.323 -0.3515

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.47%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 90.85%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 85.2%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.67%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.44%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1034 22.33 7.83%
II 4749 30.75 46.66%
III 12244 34.25 90.03%
IV 14408 37.47 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 81
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10828
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2130
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14330
Lose: Invader deck ran out 59
Lose: Adversary condition 1910
Win: Sacrifice victory 51
Lose: Scenario condition 233
Win: Scenario condition 265
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2449
Lose: Spirit destroyed 99

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.852 Win Model: -0.252

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.283 Win Model: -0.338
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 18469 30.04% 39.41 87.46%
2 8343 39.43% 35.92 83.29%
3 3160 44.03% 36.41 80.76%
4 2463 33.92% 36.4 82.46%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)