Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 6.67% 26.8 86.67% 0.353 0.7337 0.248
Blitz 0 454 34.81% 34.76 79.52% 0.202 0.5489 -0.59
Dahan Insurrection 4 350 21.14% 50.73 69.71% -1.742 -1.4921 -0.299
Despicable Theft 2 105 34.29% 38.24 82.86% -0.425 0.1539 -0.686
Elemental Invocation 1 174 42.53% 34.89 78.16% -0.031 0.6254 -0.53
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1941 12.87% 46.83 83.87% -0.648 -0.4124 0.217
Powers Long Forgotten 1 211 54.03% 35.27 74.41% -0.517 -0.1139 0.215
Rituals of Terror 3 226 39.01% 65.24 78.32% 1.209 0.8916 0.504
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 93 56.99% 44.58 77.42% -1.055 -1.0005 -1.126
Second Wave 0 2437 31.65% 32.55 86.29% -0.431 0.2067 0.257
The Great River 3 109 37.61% 33.72 50.46% -0.616 1.0034 -0.274
Varied Terrains 2 18 50.0% 36.28 77.78% -0.891 -0.0963 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 223 38.91% 37.42 74.89% 0.47 1.4344 -0.782

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1298 38.13 66.26% -0.766 1.2015 -0.66
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1229 38.36 66.56% -1.314 0.4293 -0.404
All Things Weaken 1409 36.43 64.66% -1.233 0.7614 -0.744
Back Against the Wall 1166 37.07 64.15% -2.031 -0.0782 -0.737
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1305 35.13 64.14% -1.938 0.2145 -0.811
Downward Spiral 1443 37.33 70.41% -1.313 0.6712 -0.535
Erosion of Will 1336 37.5 63.92% -0.867 1.2171 -0.822
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 686 40.62 88.34% -0.332 0.1929 0.469
Memory Fades to Dust 1496 36.93 70.45% -0.709 1.4275 -0.674
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1326 36.07 67.42% -1.056 0.9114 -0.749
Promising Farmlands 1241 37.65 68.82% -0.881 1.2006 -0.587
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 489 39.31 89.78% -0.067 0.3898 0.106
Thriving Communities 1406 36.38 67.35% -1.528 0.5236 -0.597
Tipping Point 1 2.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 1512 37.4 66.07% -0.915 1.0305 -0.739
Untended Land Crumbles 1432 35.37 66.83% -1.571 0.4711 -0.711

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 11943 36.25% 36.25 84.17% 0.067 0.7676 0.292
B 12754 36.1% 36.89 84.15% -0.112 0.5428 0.26
C 13547 35.72% 37.41 84.71% -0.026 0.4143 0.432
D 10959 35.97% 35.87 84.1% -0.264 0.4188 0.315
E 11588 36.82% 37.53 83.93% 0.293 0.7954 0.374
F 10163 36.38% 36.72 84.3% -0.336 0.3226 0.322
G 9021 36.02% 36.69 84.56% 0.284 0.9264 0.529
H 8973 36.13% 36.63 84.31% -0.245 0.3978 0.307
East 2188 36.84% 41.29 80.26% 0.126 0.7931 0.123
Northeast 1157 37.59% 43.39 81.33% 0.185 0.7726 -0.399
Northwest 950 39.53% 39.51 80.53% 0.087 0.7171 -0.91
Southeast 965 38.46% 37.5 78.45% 0.074 0.6278 0.456
Southwest 1033 39.12% 36.13 75.9% -0.802 0.1089 -1.223
West 2180 39.16% 39.86 77.61% -0.078 0.7578 -0.628

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 340 0.0% 23.89 91.18% -0.341 1.8979 -0.475
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 56.0% 21.94 80.65% 0.133 0.3322 -0.442
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1335 12.19% 41.85 94.46% 0.862 0.0478 1.113
Start of Game Growth 2132 14.48% 42.31 93.39% 0.563 0.0627 0.316
Unlimited Undo 5676 27.9% 39.79 90.63% 0.404 -0.2104 0.433
Using Tokens but Not Events 5086 17.05% 31.53 92.8% -0.089 0.0403 -0.094

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.41%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 90.5%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 84.89%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.69%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.29%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1874 22.64 6.46%
II 7973 31.06 45.39%
III 20512 34.65 90.12%
IV 23934 37.9 99.69%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 121
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 18200
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3468
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 23737
Lose: Invader deck ran out 94
Lose: Adversary condition 3344
Win: Sacrifice victory 150
Lose: Scenario condition 375
Win: Scenario condition 411
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4202
Lose: Spirit destroyed 191

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.118 Win Model: 0.065
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 29617 30.74% 39.05 86.91%
2 14210 40.98% 36.11 82.42%
3 5534 42.82% 35.98 81.13%
4 4274 33.02% 36.34 83.55%
5 157 23.57% 29.66 88.54%
6 501 29.12% 36.74 86.83%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-13 03:07:46 (Pacific Time)