Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 232 30.0% 34.77 -1.331 81.03% -0.783 -0.2065
Dahan Insurrection 4 208 19.23% 50.94 7.223 72.6% -1.639 -1.2384
Despicable Theft 2 3 0.0% 37.0 1.513 100.0% 0.06 0.4892
Elemental Invocation 1 47 44.68% 34.09 -0.968 74.47% -0.585 -0.2041
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1220 11.6% 46.66 3.835 84.84% -0.302 0.064
Powers Long Forgotten 1 140 54.29% 34.62 -0.908 72.14% -0.955 -0.514
Rituals of Terror 3 106 45.63% 39.65 2.391 74.53% -1.022 -0.3935
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 55.0% 44.52 4.215 80.0% -0.508 0.142
Second Wave 0 1138 33.24% 32.9 -1.31 84.62% -0.777 -0.3606
The Great River 3 64 42.19% 34.17 -1.517 51.56% -2.871 -1.3992
Ward the Shores 2 127 39.2% 36.31 0.277 71.65% -1.302 -0.265

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 16078 29.61% 39.29 0.657 87.79% -0.364 -0.0056
1 Thematic 828 33.7% 40.51 1.129 81.52% -0.534 -0.0299
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5201 40.61% 36.44 -0.537 83.08% -0.379 -0.1836
2 Coastline 674 34.08% 37.03 -0.435 84.42% -0.392 -0.2491
2 Fragment 136 46.67% 31.85 -2.314 80.88% -0.538 -0.116
2 Heart 71 53.62% 28.23 -3.585 76.06% -0.699 -0.4062
2 Opposite Shores 977 36.32% 33.73 -1.572 83.83% -0.481 -0.2565
2 Thematic 397 38.79% 36.88 -0.102 82.12% -0.33 -0.2856
2 Top to Top 129 36.72% 36.55 -0.379 82.95% -0.376 -0.2414
3 Coastline 31 45.16% 45.81 3.72 83.87% 0.916 0.8828
3 Other 124 32.52% 37.14 0.142 86.29% -0.069 0.3461
3 Round (Default) 2565 44.39% 36.21 -0.415 80.16% -0.045 -0.0061
3 Sunrise 14 38.46% 22.93 -4.588 100.0% 0.592 0.3684
3 Thematic 120 45.83% 37.67 0.272 75.83% 0.001 -0.3554
4 Coastline 14 21.43% 35.79 -0.16 71.43% -0.103 0.0556
4 Leaf 13 53.85% 40.08 1.244 92.31% 0.588 0.6161
4 Other 108 37.04% 34.74 -0.618 86.11% 0.244 0.3572
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 -4.061 100.0% 0.054 0.1777
4 Thematic 379 32.54% 40.68 1.352 79.95% 0.288 -0.7984
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1697 33.87% 35.66 -0.39 83.03% 0.172 0.1547
5 Other 41 30.0% 35.71 0.465 90.24% 0.767 0.5487
5 Thematic 3 33.33% 56.0 7.657 100.0% 0.723 -2.1047

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 702 38.21 -0.915 66.38% -1.506 0.5637
Aid From Lesser Spirits 668 38.08 -0.858 67.22% -1.58 0.3386
All Things Weaken 725 37.48 -1.154 67.03% -1.539 0.6154
Back Against the Wall 618 36.75 -1.299 66.67% -1.622 0.4746
Disintegrating Ecosystem 682 35.34 -2.278 63.93% -1.688 0.5357
Downward Spiral 779 37.46 -1.314 70.86% -1.414 0.6028
Erosion of Will 725 37.0 -1.584 62.34% -1.771 0.4389
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 335 40.74 0.751 89.25% -0.217 0.487
Memory Fades to Dust 795 36.71 -1.39 69.43% -1.452 0.7633
Power Corrodes the Spirit 730 36.01 -1.688 67.67% -1.581 0.4386
Promising Farmlands 683 38.36 -0.977 68.96% -1.394 0.8182
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 250 40.75 1.011 91.2% 0.039 0.4748
Thriving Communities 746 36.99 -1.348 68.63% -1.475 0.6223
Tipping Point 1 2.0 -16.272 0.0% -0.907 1.3116
Unnatural Proliferation 807 37.23 -1.34 64.19% -1.731 0.3464
Untended Land Crumbles 750 36.0 -1.862 66.93% -1.573 0.5259

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3861 33.73% 36.63 -0.64 85.34% 0.097 -0.9928
B 4020 32.88% 38.01 -0.036 85.45% 0.207 -0.9787
C 4504 33.97% 38.59 0.163 85.52% 0.247 -1.1677
D 3251 34.75% 36.98 -0.358 85.11% 0.128 -1.0494
E 3700 34.38% 38.82 0.276 85.43% 0.265 -1.0121
F 3107 33.42% 37.78 -0.106 86.0% 0.214 -1.0285
G 2800 33.96% 38.71 0.344 85.96% 0.328 -0.9025
H 2774 34.32% 37.48 -0.138 86.16% 0.275 -0.9647
East 311 28.39% 41.51 2.069 83.28% -0.378 -1.3284
Northeast 252 36.9% 39.43 1.048 80.16% -0.427 -1.3173
Northwest 214 44.39% 40.78 1.418 78.5% -0.257 -1.2219
Southeast 224 35.43% 38.83 1.007 84.82% 0.04 -0.9617
Southwest 289 30.21% 36.34 -0.875 78.89% -0.436 -1.0439
West 294 39.8% 41.04 1.335 78.91% -0.269 -0.9544

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 181 0.0% 24.33 -5.151 91.71% -1.496 0.5476
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 100.0% 18.0 -6.801 77.78% -0.379 -0.1599
Skip Initial Invader Actions 777 12.48% 42.98 1.56 94.34% 0.292 -0.4118
Start of Game Growth 1297 14.4% 43.95 2.488 93.37% 0.541 0.0871
Unlimited Undo 3079 28.82% 41.2 1.233 90.26% 0.468 0.0561
Using Tokens but Not Events 2726 15.4% 31.61 -2.722 93.54% 0.057 0.0095

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1021 31.36% 35.62 -0.562 83.55% -0.016 0.1298
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 597 46.37% 34.52 -0.993 81.24% -0.115 0.1219
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 610 41.02% 32.78 -1.618 79.02% -0.34 -0.4255
Eyes Watch From the Trees 918 31.4% 37.86 0.515 87.04% 0.329 -0.036
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 591 35.82% 35.0 -0.739 84.09% 0.072 -0.1728
Fractured Days Split the Sky 435 38.25% 37.53 0.3 82.3% -0.026 0.3194
Heart of the Wildfire 512 58.74% 34.62 -1.172 74.61% -0.121 0.2291
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1480 36.38% 37.85 0.194 82.97% 0.148 -0.152
Lightning's Swift Strike 854 39.74% 35.09 -0.724 83.14% 0.03 0.2981
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1118 43.19% 38.5 0.592 82.29% 0.224 -0.0955
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1105 40.18% 38.63 0.362 80.63% 0.005 -0.1891
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 631 38.56% 34.49 -0.873 83.04% 0.008 0.057
River Surges in Sunlight 823 43.4% 38.47 0.729 81.77% 0.194 0.356
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 761 40.11% 39.13 0.637 79.63% 0.01 0.1598
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 536 46.43% 33.62 -1.217 81.34% -0.092 0.3579
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3556 32.05% 36.87 -0.133 85.1% 0.154 0.0868
Shroud of Silent Mist 26 38.46% 36.08 -0.276 84.62% 0.313 0.2685
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1423 39.49% 35.83 -0.868 81.1% -0.061 -0.0799
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 614 37.21% 35.85 -0.382 81.76% -0.059 0.1575
Thunderspeaker 844 33.65% 36.48 -0.472 82.23% -0.113 -0.055
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 816 57.99% 32.97 -1.743 77.57% -0.102 -0.0824
Vital Strength of the Earth 504 40.4% 30.79 -2.445 76.79% -0.504 0.3662
Volcano Looming High 214 43.19% 32.8 -2.016 78.5% -0.295 -0.3569

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.4%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 90.89%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 85.36%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.72%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.44%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 944 22.34 8.05%
II 4343 30.75 46.76%
III 11198 34.26 89.95%
IV 13116 37.47 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 76
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9893
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1953
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13049
Lose: Invader deck ran out 51
Lose: Adversary condition 1758
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Scenario condition 217
Win: Scenario condition 242
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2229
Lose: Spirit destroyed 88

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.838 Win Model: -0.253

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.282 Win Model: -0.323
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 16911 29.82% 39.35 87.49%
2 7611 39.47% 36.03 83.17%
3 2859 44.12% 36.34 80.41%
4 2220 33.62% 36.44 82.61%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)