Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 23.75 75.0% -0.543 -0.4359 0.0
Blitz 0 423 36.34% 33.93 78.49% -0.835 -0.4879 -0.735
Dahan Insurrection 4 333 20.72% 50.97 70.87% -1.473 -1.1171 -0.234
Despicable Theft 2 97 34.02% 37.87 83.51% 0.195 0.4054 -0.684
Elemental Invocation 1 162 43.21% 34.25 77.78% -0.189 0.405 -0.426
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1860 12.57% 47.0 84.14% -0.063 0.1611 0.237
Powers Long Forgotten 1 205 53.66% 35.21 74.63% -0.246 0.0428 0.201
Rituals of Terror 3 204 41.29% 58.19 77.45% 1.202 1.2197 0.409
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 89 58.43% 44.52 78.65% 0.184 0.7148 -1.063
Second Wave 0 2306 31.41% 32.49 86.34% -0.501 0.0404 0.259
The Great River 3 105 39.05% 33.67 49.52% 0.202 1.6968 -0.345
Varied Terrains 2 14 57.14% 39.93 85.71% 0.211 0.7155 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 217 39.07% 37.43 74.19% 0.172 1.3557 -0.79

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 26848 30.6% 39.04 87.21% 0.311 0.8621 0.342
1 Thematic 1378 33.58% 39.13 82.15% 0.026 0.7064 0.376
2 Archipelago 37 43.24% 40.22 94.59% 0.444 1.172 0.447
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9087 42.02% 36.1 82.44% -0.362 0.0728 -0.044
2 Coastline 1207 36.64% 36.73 84.76% 0.516 0.6573 0.047
2 Fragment 253 46.43% 32.15 81.42% -0.229 -0.2096 -0.415
2 Heart 126 47.58% 30.77 80.16% 0.397 0.7312 -0.512
2 Opposite Shores 1768 36.95% 33.86 84.05% -0.414 0.1528 -0.388
2 Thematic 745 45.69% 37.32 74.23% -0.154 0.27 -0.048
2 Top to Top 261 37.69% 36.54 85.06% 0.295 0.6055 -0.138
3 Archipelago 19 52.63% 37.84 89.47% 0.577 0.0918 0.0
3 Coastline 63 38.1% 39.22 79.37% 0.946 0.3363 0.047
3 Other 233 36.21% 34.62 82.83% 0.197 -0.6652 0.287
3 Round (Default) 4735 43.05% 36.09 81.16% -0.261 0.0549 -0.27
3 Sunrise 19 38.89% 26.53 94.74% -0.366 -0.2929 -0.207
3 Thematic 235 41.38% 46.43 78.72% -0.075 -0.4069 0.513
4 Archipelago 26 30.77% 40.19 88.46% 0.494 -0.3323 0.283
4 Coastline 57 10.53% 29.93 85.96% -0.613 -0.8968 0.153
4 Leaf 27 51.85% 34.74 88.89% -0.504 -0.2708 -0.726
4 Other 198 30.81% 33.26 88.89% 0.111 -0.2139 -0.016
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 624 35.48% 40.63 79.49% -0.142 -0.0277 -0.367
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3126 33.67% 35.95 83.27% 0.603 0.4951 -0.522
5 Archipelago 18 38.89% 49.0 88.89% 0.023 -0.4698 -0.311
5 Coastline 15 0.0% 41.4 93.33% 0.181 -0.395 0.169
5 Other 176 32.57% 31.69 87.5% 0.065 0.3762 -0.422
5 Thematic 28 17.86% 35.07 96.43% 0.113 -0.0411 0.427
6 Archipelago 14 42.86% 35.86 92.86% 0.062 -0.4805 0.044
6 Coastline 3 0.0% 69.33 100.0% 0.158 -0.3591 0.072
6 Other 59 25.42% 38.63 86.44% -0.315 0.2834 0.242
6 Star 32 31.25% 33.94 71.88% -0.982 -0.0467 -0.25
6 Thematic 118 38.46% 33.14 86.44% -0.182 -0.2617 0.453
6 Two Centers (Default) 178 25.0% 36.46 87.64% -0.062 0.2696 -0.176
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.082 -0.7569 0.583
7 Other 6 50.0% 38.67 83.33% 0.453 -0.3537 -0.365

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1244 37.89 65.76% -1.74 0.1101 -0.681
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1177 38.33 66.69% -0.728 0.9161 -0.4
All Things Weaken 1336 36.5 64.45% -1.725 0.258 -0.744
Back Against the Wall 1120 37.13 64.73% -1.185 0.664 -0.681
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1246 35.3 64.85% -1.301 0.6613 -0.832
Downward Spiral 1376 37.28 70.49% -0.799 1.1166 -0.563
Erosion of Will 1279 37.38 63.57% -1.073 0.9909 -0.848
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 654 40.52 88.53% 0.197 0.7158 0.485
Memory Fades to Dust 1436 36.72 70.19% -1.433 0.5665 -0.7
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1276 36.18 67.16% -1.366 0.5278 -0.743
Promising Farmlands 1176 37.53 68.37% -1.391 0.6037 -0.615
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 473 39.32 89.64% -0.269 0.1732 0.073
Thriving Communities 1333 36.3 67.67% -1.445 0.5039 -0.576
Tipping Point 1 2.0 0.0% 0.0 0.5049 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 1445 37.33 65.61% -1.121 0.7795 -0.776
Untended Land Crumbles 1363 35.62 67.13% -1.534 0.4609 -0.674

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 11341 36.45% 36.22 83.99% -0.146 0.6062 0.291
B 12100 36.18% 36.89 84.14% 0.104 0.7879 0.294
C 12857 35.79% 37.43 84.72% 0.852 1.3946 0.442
D 10394 36.16% 35.92 84.05% 0.32 1.0629 0.363
E 11033 36.99% 37.55 83.84% 0.364 0.9627 0.39
F 9672 36.62% 36.72 84.28% 0.096 0.7803 0.336
G 8590 36.13% 36.74 84.58% 0.41 1.1232 0.545
H 8543 36.42% 36.64 84.36% 0.239 0.8901 0.319
East 2048 37.46% 40.62 79.79% 0.593 1.2988 0.15
Northeast 1066 38.55% 42.1 80.58% -0.005 0.6704 -0.393
Northwest 883 40.16% 39.38 80.18% -0.205 0.8784 -1.041
Southeast 902 38.93% 37.33 77.94% 0.12 0.8394 0.559
Southwest 972 39.11% 36.1 75.51% -0.592 0.4106 -1.068
West 2050 39.45% 39.28 77.27% -0.326 0.7059 -0.627

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 324 0.0% 24.01 91.05% 0.298 2.3384 -0.475
Not Using Events or Tokens 28 63.64% 21.68 78.57% 0.0 0.2106 -0.45
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1276 12.38% 41.75 94.28% -0.564 -0.6576 0.669
Start of Game Growth 2052 14.6% 42.35 93.27% 0.267 -0.4532 0.231
Unlimited Undo 5374 28.17% 39.96 90.62% 0.561 -0.124 0.443
Using Tokens but Not Events 4816 17.19% 31.56 92.88% 0.3 0.2021 -0.06

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1873 100.0% 35.55 100.0% 0.603 0.491 0.098
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 952 100.0% 34.27 100.0% 0.276 0.3179 0.16
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1203 100.0% 33.78 100.0% -0.632 -0.7574 -0.652
Downpour Drenches the World 109 100.0% 37.19 100.0% -0.205 0.1074 -0.014
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1867 100.0% 37.39 100.0% -0.426 -0.8453 0.012
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1122 100.0% 34.71 100.0% -0.189 -0.7439 0.377
Finder of Paths Unseen 68 100.0% 42.16 100.0% 0.104 0.4855 1.009
Fractured Days Split the Sky 825 100.0% 38.95 100.0% -0.341 -0.3145 0.471
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 474 100.0% 35.29 100.0% -0.147 -0.1834 0.172
Heart of the Wildfire 867 100.0% 33.52 100.0% -0.482 -0.2625 -0.076
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2537 100.0% 38.21 100.0% 0.129 -0.3705 0.33
Lightning's Swift Strike 849 153.93% 32.84 113.55% -0.37 -0.1293 -0.33
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 23 39.13% 31.22 86.96% 0.27 -0.5637 -0.372
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 371 38.48% 38.14 84.91% -0.322 -0.9374 0.617
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 344 35.96% 37.72 83.72% -0.015 -0.3141 0.815
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2919 100.0% 37.61 100.0% 0.394 0.1706 0.038
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1935 100.0% 38.35 100.0% 0.24 -0.0221 0.216
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1100 100.0% 33.87 100.0% 0.046 0.0124 0.048
River Surges in Sunlight 1093 121.08% 38.62 107.5% 0.571 0.6186 0.595
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 357 40.68% 33.65 79.27% -0.174 0.1192 -0.612
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 36 41.67% 42.58 77.78% -0.173 -0.4299 -0.263
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1484 100.0% 38.33 100.0% 0.045 0.0454 -0.356
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 394 174.12% 32.05 121.57% -0.41 -0.003 -0.146
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 12 58.33% 33.92 75.0% -0.557 -0.4873 -0.382
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 10 30.0% 35.4 80.0% -0.478 -0.6916 -0.293
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 259 40.08% 32.38 86.1% 0.357 0.3354 0.015
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 234 44.4% 34.18 81.2% 0.073 0.2458 0.357
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6246 100.0% 36.35 100.0% 0.499 0.2103 -0.184
Shifting Memory of Ages 457 100.0% 33.01 100.0% 0.919 0.9643 -0.762
Shroud of Silent Mist 623 100.0% 32.94 100.0% -0.712 -0.448 0.185
Starlight Seeks its Form 452 100.0% 38.17 100.0% -0.141 -0.3153 -0.107
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2239 100.0% 37.48 100.0% 0.389 0.2285 0.118
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 977 100.0% 36.04 100.0% 0.1 0.203 0.517
Thunderspeaker 1549 100.0% 36.02 100.0% 0.288 0.2919 0.168
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1305 100.0% 33.18 100.0% 0.461 0.382 -0.377
Vital Strength of the Earth 613 123.58% 29.73 109.46% -0.628 0.1738 -0.646
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 20 15.0% 37.7 85.0% -0.105 0.355 -0.019
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 250 48.39% 32.68 78.0% 0.683 1.8217 -0.402
Volcano Looming High 862 100.0% 32.0 100.0% -0.072 -0.0305 -0.245

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.44%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 90.54%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 84.95%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.69%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.29%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1776 22.6 6.64%
II 7561 31.02 45.14%
III 19569 34.58 90.07%
IV 22823 37.82 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17349
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3267
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22650
Lose: Invader deck ran out 92
Lose: Adversary condition 3179
Win: Sacrifice victory 132
Lose: Scenario condition 352
Win: Scenario condition 397
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4013
Lose: Spirit destroyed 180

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.173 Win Model: -0.195

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.143 Win Model: -0.05
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 28292 30.79% 39.06 86.94%
2 13529 41.08% 36.0 82.5%
3 5274 42.83% 36.0 81.1%
4 4099 33.3% 36.43 83.29%
5 139 25.18% 29.47 88.49%
6 396 30.53% 36.06 85.86%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-13 02:58:21 (Pacific Time)