Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 23.75 75.0% -0.367 -0.5692 0.0
Blitz 0 418 36.06% 33.95 78.47% -0.967 -0.71 -0.738
Dahan Insurrection 4 329 20.97% 51.06 71.12% -1.478 -1.0654 -0.202
Despicable Theft 2 97 34.02% 37.87 83.51% -0.722 -0.2758 -0.691
Elemental Invocation 1 158 44.3% 34.27 77.22% -0.136 0.3498 -0.436
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1841 12.48% 46.98 84.08% -0.611 -0.3052 0.232
Powers Long Forgotten 1 204 53.92% 35.09 74.51% -0.405 -0.2234 0.21
Rituals of Terror 3 195 42.71% 55.52 76.92% 0.643 0.7638 0.306
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 87 58.62% 44.64 78.16% 0.015 0.4306 -1.073
Second Wave 0 2254 31.38% 32.43 86.29% -0.486 0.0798 0.188
The Great River 3 105 39.05% 33.67 49.52% 0.255 1.6532 -0.263
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 36.4 80.0% -0.11 0.4162 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 216 39.25% 37.44 74.07% 0.339 1.501 -0.786

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 26457 30.59% 39.01 87.19% 0.242 1.2582 0.316
1 Thematic 1358 33.7% 39.03 82.11% 0.237 1.4092 0.351
2 Archipelago 31 45.16% 36.68 96.77% 0.404 1.3877 0.332
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8935 41.95% 36.1 82.52% -0.233 0.5181 -0.011
2 Coastline 1186 36.96% 36.86 84.49% -0.17 0.4327 0.058
2 Fragment 246 46.53% 31.97 81.3% -0.895 -0.4478 -0.306
2 Heart 121 48.74% 30.59 80.17% 0.471 1.0097 -0.502
2 Opposite Shores 1738 37.13% 33.84 84.0% -0.413 0.5791 -0.388
2 Thematic 733 45.89% 36.74 74.22% -0.289 0.4092 -0.11
2 Top to Top 258 37.35% 36.5 84.88% 0.399 0.9097 -0.127
3 Archipelago 18 55.56% 36.17 88.89% 0.418 0.591 0.0
3 Coastline 61 39.34% 39.69 78.69% 0.76 -0.023 -0.125
3 Other 229 36.4% 34.73 82.97% -0.424 -0.4595 0.309
3 Round (Default) 4644 42.93% 36.08 81.27% -0.119 0.4756 -0.214
3 Sunrise 19 38.89% 26.53 94.74% -0.319 -0.2824 -0.186
3 Thematic 232 41.48% 45.61 78.88% 0.287 0.2494 0.543
4 Archipelago 25 32.0% 39.32 88.0% 0.48 -0.2314 0.304
4 Coastline 52 7.69% 30.83 86.54% -0.524 -0.4076 0.167
4 Leaf 26 53.85% 35.0 88.46% -0.123 0.4395 -0.716
4 Other 194 30.93% 33.23 88.66% -0.183 -0.4369 0.034
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 2 50.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 620 35.71% 40.72 79.52% 0.08 0.609 -0.286
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3081 33.69% 35.9 83.19% 0.763 0.736 -0.421
5 Archipelago 18 38.89% 49.0 88.89% 0.082 -0.4972 -0.294
5 Coastline 14 0.0% 39.21 92.86% 0.228 -0.3368 0.142
5 Other 168 32.93% 31.87 88.1% 0.391 0.5596 -0.455
5 Thematic 28 17.86% 35.07 96.43% 0.218 -0.0592 0.422
6 Archipelago 13 46.15% 36.23 92.31% 0.177 -0.0791 0.035
6 Coastline 3 0.0% 69.33 100.0% 0.222 -0.3667 0.081
6 Other 52 21.15% 38.63 88.46% -0.109 0.7008 0.26
6 Star 32 31.25% 33.94 71.88% -0.863 -0.079 -0.197
6 Thematic 109 39.81% 32.83 85.32% -0.544 -0.8223 0.52
6 Two Centers (Default) 166 26.83% 36.39 86.75% -0.341 -0.435 -0.144
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.042 -0.5355 0.616
7 Other 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0% 0.271 -0.881 -0.699

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1220 37.92 65.98% -1.59 0.3126 -0.692
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1161 38.31 66.58% -0.711 1.0187 -0.402
All Things Weaken 1311 36.48 64.3% -2.147 -0.1614 -0.731
Back Against the Wall 1100 36.98 64.64% -1.339 0.4773 -0.714
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1221 35.18 64.62% -1.513 0.5376 -0.822
Downward Spiral 1362 37.24 70.41% -0.868 1.1251 -0.567
Erosion of Will 1260 37.23 63.41% -1.057 1.0261 -0.864
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 643 40.54 88.65% 0.743 1.1843 0.514
Memory Fades to Dust 1409 36.71 70.19% -1.432 0.6521 -0.68
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1255 36.19 67.41% -1.322 0.6166 -0.706
Promising Farmlands 1156 37.46 68.34% -1.13 0.9156 -0.629
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 468 39.32 89.74% -0.177 0.2482 0.104
Thriving Communities 1305 36.32 67.74% -1.566 0.4178 -0.577
Tipping Point 1 2.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.1175 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 1423 37.41 65.57% -1.278 0.6863 -0.774
Untended Land Crumbles 1345 35.67 67.14% -1.514 0.4789 -0.677

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 11143 36.47% 36.21 84.0% -0.009 0.788 0.299
B 11896 36.19% 36.88 84.15% 0.069 0.8126 0.286
C 12639 35.77% 37.43 84.71% 1.004 1.5727 0.433
D 10222 36.17% 35.9 84.06% 0.366 1.1615 0.372
E 10811 36.94% 37.54 83.81% 0.238 0.8846 0.38
F 9481 36.64% 36.68 84.29% -0.051 0.6736 0.316
G 8436 36.2% 36.76 84.55% 0.475 1.2066 0.542
H 8379 36.39% 36.61 84.41% 0.387 1.099 0.315
East 2011 37.7% 40.33 79.71% 0.57 1.3392 0.08
Northeast 1042 39.05% 41.58 80.23% -0.02 0.8399 -0.376
Northwest 866 40.6% 39.4 79.79% -0.512 0.5648 -1.035
Southeast 881 39.29% 37.36 77.87% -0.093 0.6134 0.574
Southwest 956 39.24% 36.17 75.52% -0.142 0.983 -1.038
West 2016 39.67% 39.22 77.23% 0.185 1.1385 -0.612

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 321 0.0% 24.01 90.97% 0.291 2.4204 -0.465
Not Using Events or Tokens 28 63.64% 21.68 78.57% 0.0 0.175 -0.456
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1261 12.36% 41.71 94.37% -0.225 -0.3674 0.673
Start of Game Growth 2029 14.61% 42.34 93.35% 0.281 -0.4791 0.236
Unlimited Undo 5264 28.25% 40.02 90.63% 0.547 -0.0566 0.457
Using Tokens but Not Events 4752 17.15% 31.55 92.87% 0.202 0.0459 -0.058

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1831 100.0% 35.53 100.0% 0.468 0.3531 0.047
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 927 100.0% 34.36 100.0% -0.26 -0.1646 0.159
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1183 100.0% 33.9 100.0% -0.445 -0.606 -0.636
Downpour Drenches the World 84 100.0% 38.46 100.0% -0.124 0.129 0.104
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1840 100.0% 37.34 100.0% -0.48 -0.9177 -0.016
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1101 100.0% 34.74 100.0% -0.318 -0.8057 0.359
Finder of Paths Unseen 52 100.0% 42.13 100.0% 0.273 0.6362 1.557
Fractured Days Split the Sky 812 100.0% 38.97 100.0% -0.369 -0.3134 0.459
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 454 100.0% 35.44 100.0% 0.061 0.0296 0.25
Heart of the Wildfire 864 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.322 -0.1478 -0.087
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2488 100.0% 38.13 100.0% -0.04 -0.4963 0.306
Lightning's Swift Strike 843 152.66% 32.83 112.81% -0.128 0.1466 -0.328
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 17 35.29% 31.94 88.24% 0.199 -0.5774 -0.38
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 368 37.98% 38.26 85.6% 0.743 0.1003 0.649
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 331 36.78% 37.6 83.99% 0.017 -0.2498 0.853
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2854 100.0% 37.6 100.0% 0.268 0.001 0.039
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1899 100.0% 38.32 100.0% 0.356 0.1708 0.176
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1075 100.0% 33.94 100.0% 0.038 0.0587 0.003
River Surges in Sunlight 1083 120.74% 38.56 107.39% -0.043 -0.0768 0.56
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 353 40.74% 33.67 79.04% 0.026 0.457 -0.639
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 30 43.33% 43.63 80.0% -0.001 -0.3016 -0.298
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1469 100.0% 38.36 100.0% -0.2 -0.2524 -0.393
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 393 172.54% 32.06 121.12% -0.159 0.251 -0.179
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 10 60.0% 36.3 80.0% -0.243 -0.2361 -0.385
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 8 37.5% 36.25 75.0% -0.456 -0.8026 -0.291
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 253 39.04% 32.49 86.17% 0.38 0.3992 0.082
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 231 44.98% 34.06 80.95% 0.135 0.3176 0.335
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6140 100.0% 36.32 100.0% 0.189 -0.0974 -0.23
Shifting Memory of Ages 446 100.0% 32.79 100.0% 0.304 0.3785 -0.768
Shroud of Silent Mist 590 100.0% 33.23 100.0% -0.265 -0.0285 0.242
Starlight Seeks its Form 410 100.0% 37.68 100.0% -0.241 -0.3804 -0.337
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2195 100.0% 37.25 100.0% 0.845 0.6629 0.108
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 966 100.0% 36.05 100.0% 0.007 0.1917 0.496
Thunderspeaker 1525 100.0% 36.06 100.0% 0.487 0.5509 0.163
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1285 100.0% 33.2 100.0% 0.489 0.3984 -0.411
Vital Strength of the Earth 609 122.59% 29.74 109.52% -0.628 0.1802 -0.635
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 16 18.75% 37.88 81.25% -0.289 0.0977 -0.135
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 246 48.77% 32.57 77.64% 0.141 1.3153 -0.435
Volcano Looming High 841 100.0% 32.04 100.0% -0.473 -0.4778 -0.3

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Dreadful Tide of Scurrying Flesh 94.42%
Boon of Swarming Bedevilment 90.55%
Ever-Multiplying Swarm 84.97%
Guide the Way on Feathered Wings 95.7%
Pursue with Scratches, Pecks, and Stings 93.3%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1749 22.56 6.75%
II 7451 30.98 45.19%
III 19225 34.53 90.08%
IV 22454 37.77 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17044
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3222
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22293
Lose: Invader deck ran out 92
Lose: Adversary condition 3120
Win: Sacrifice victory 120
Lose: Scenario condition 349
Win: Scenario condition 394
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3949
Lose: Spirit destroyed 178

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.036 Win Model: -0.209

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.136 Win Model: 0.006
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 27875 30.78% 39.02 86.92%
2 13290 41.11% 35.95 82.53%
3 5177 42.74% 36.02 81.21%
4 4039 33.39% 36.41 83.19%
5 129 24.81% 29.5 89.15%
6 369 31.15% 35.98 85.37%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)