Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0785 0.0
Blitz 0 164 56.71% 25.93 57.93% -1.21 -1.0638 -0.841
Dahan Insurrection 4 208 25.48% 53.49 73.56% 0.552 0.3447 0.662
Despicable Theft 2 51 50.98% 30.47 62.75% -1.183 -0.5005 -0.235
Elemental Invocation 1 82 49.38% 31.15 71.95% -0.002 0.7295 -0.994
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1142 22.87% 47.1 76.88% 0.76 0.1538 1.223
Powers Long Forgotten 1 105 67.62% 29.49 57.14% -1.095 -0.6067 -0.631
Rituals of Terror 3 39 65.79% 35.26 69.23% -0.648 -0.5425 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 35 62.86% 37.49 68.57% -0.683 0.3087 0.077
Second Wave 0 676 47.42% 28.01 74.56% -0.243 -0.1808 -0.998
The Great River 3 37 54.05% 28.49 37.84% -1.028 0.3199 -0.802
Varied Terrains 2 13 53.85% 36.08 84.62% -0.094 0.469 0.628
Ward the Shores 2 68 64.18% 24.65 36.76% -1.319 -0.109 -0.28

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9423 46.93% 31.14 74.97% 0.542 0.7518 0.453
1 Thematic 478 53.25% 32.52 60.67% -1.149 -0.5503 -0.363
2 Archipelago 17 35.29% 46.47 94.12% -0.208 0.1488 0.65
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2906 49.77% 31.37 73.47% 0.195 0.3546 0.433
2 Coastline 477 54.62% 32.15 56.6% -0.149 -0.0882 -0.608
2 Fragment 63 54.84% 29.84 80.95% -0.044 -0.1074 -0.371
2 Heart 70 54.29% 25.1 67.14% 0.959 0.7212 0.111
2 Opposite Shores 601 35.67% 31.7 82.7% 1.013 1.147 -0.183
2 Thematic 191 57.89% 33.78 65.45% 0.425 1.061 0.381
2 Top to Top 87 58.62% 31.95 66.67% 0.812 0.8527 -0.486
3 Archipelago 15 33.33% 31.2 73.33% -0.302 -1.3883 0.0
3 Coastline 13 30.77% 33.0 69.23% -0.093 -0.5912 -0.068
3 Other 55 41.82% 30.55 80.0% -0.377 -0.2676 -0.412
3 Round (Default) 1575 47.6% 34.24 76.13% 0.261 0.2201 0.243
3 Sunrise 8 37.5% 28.63 75.0% -0.598 -0.4015 0.0
3 Thematic 60 56.67% 34.92 70.0% -0.5 -0.4639 0.371
4 Archipelago 9 44.44% 23.44 66.67% 0.0 -0.2146 -0.276
4 Coastline 8 37.5% 25.13 37.5% 0.0 0.1222 -0.092
4 Leaf 11 63.64% 30.27 81.82% 0.0 -0.3753 0.0
4 Other 50 52.0% 31.18 78.0% -1.032 -1.882 -0.163
4 Thematic 168 38.1% 41.73 72.62% -0.152 -0.1691 -0.338
4 Trapezoid (Default) 889 40.62% 32.61 77.05% -0.019 -0.2051 0.517
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.0
5 Other 54 39.22% 25.41 74.07% -0.301 -0.809 0.256
5 Thematic 7 28.57% 32.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.33 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.305 0.0
6 Other 32 25.0% 25.03 93.75% 0.565 0.1704 -0.255
6 Star 11 72.73% 25.45 54.55% -0.192 0.2828 0.289
6 Thematic 49 28.57% 28.16 75.51% 0.01 0.4085 -0.598
6 Two Centers (Default) 90 26.14% 32.53 83.33% 0.112 0.1556 0.616
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5893 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7729 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 583 32.02 54.03% 0.126 0.3976 0.075
Aid From Lesser Spirits 531 32.08 54.05% 0.168 0.2069 0.107
All Things Weaken 650 29.56 52.77% -0.354 0.1062 -0.132
Attenuated Essence 8 22.38 50.0% 0.185 0.391 -0.159
Back Against the Wall 452 30.71 51.11% -0.016 0.146 -0.455
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 27.24 47.06% -0.202 0.212 -0.703
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 20.0 46.15% -0.441 -0.1361 -0.774
Disintegrating Ecosystem 566 27.96 49.29% -1.017 -0.4908 -0.87
Downward Spiral 609 30.27 59.61% 1.722 2.0749 -0.133
Erosion of Will 556 30.67 54.68% -0.011 0.3974 -0.034
Intensifying Exploitation 12 19.25 50.0% -0.224 0.1632 -0.591
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 215 31.82 78.14% 0.104 -0.4218 -0.07
Memory Fades to Dust 642 30.74 58.41% 0.1 0.5809 -0.062
Power Corrodes the Spirit 646 29.3 54.33% -1.02 -0.7156 0.032
Promising Farmlands 520 29.81 52.12% -0.798 -0.2116 -0.134
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 19.11 44.44% -0.506 -0.3276 0.109
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 24.38 62.5% -0.462 0.0715 0.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 155 35.21 87.74% 0.303 -0.375 0.513
The Border of Life and Death 3 38.0 100.0% 0.569 0.4399 0.0
Thriving Communities 610 29.35 52.95% 0.313 0.8058 -0.163
Thriving Crops 9 35.89 55.56% -0.27 -0.1819 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 647 31.34 57.19% 0.446 0.743 0.241
Untended Land Crumbles 633 29.68 57.19% 0.044 0.4025 0.292

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3721 46.15% 31.45 74.07% -0.075 0.7645 -0.278
B 3683 48.73% 31.35 73.66% -0.157 0.6216 -0.574
C 4438 44.84% 32.84 76.32% -0.036 0.6184 0.16
D 3543 45.11% 31.59 75.36% 0.359 1.1581 0.024
E 3671 46.2% 32.52 74.91% 0.331 0.9599 0.074
F 3173 45.34% 31.52 75.92% -0.334 0.3858 -0.275
G 2865 46.56% 31.46 74.14% -0.006 0.7355 -0.059
H 2827 46.89% 31.73 75.42% 0.021 0.6691 -0.195
East 651 48.0% 36.13 67.59% 0.289 0.8936 0.204
Northeast 394 46.19% 36.36 66.5% -0.653 0.2281 0.28
Northwest 306 45.75% 36.57 66.01% -0.898 -0.2254 0.277
Southeast 221 41.82% 34.26 74.66% 0.248 0.8845 1.786
Southwest 218 52.29% 28.14 59.17% -0.916 0.2488 -0.597
West 582 49.31% 33.82 64.43% 0.563 1.5268 -0.665

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 241 0.0% 20.5 79.67% -1.031 -0.1474 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 88 55.56% 16.9 65.91% -1.629 -1.2969 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 523 13.11% 36.34 91.78% 0.418 -0.1166 -0.408
Start of Game Growth 682 16.47% 37.36 91.2% 1.278 0.9475 0.922
Unlimited Undo 1513 43.79% 31.96 76.73% -1.059 -1.0812 0.12
Using Tokens but Not Events 2125 26.08% 27.51 88.75% -0.088 -0.142 0.527

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 565 100.0% 33.62 100.0% 0.406 0.2464 0.4
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 506 100.0% 29.68 100.0% -0.209 -0.0878 -0.571
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 385 100.0% 30.51 100.0% 0.299 0.1313 0.408
Downpour Drenches the World 54 100.0% 28.78 100.0% -0.288 -0.1091 -0.553
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 41 100.0% 26.15 100.0% 0.043 -0.6784 0.726
Eyes Watch From the Trees 509 100.0% 32.72 100.0% 0.09 -0.4988 -0.255
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 404 100.0% 31.01 100.0% 0.246 -0.2255 -0.08
Finder of Paths Unseen 16 100.0% 21.5 100.0% 0.267 0.9615 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 364 100.0% 36.29 100.0% 0.027 0.7115 0.569
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 309 100.0% 35.5 100.0% -0.885 -0.9865 0.211
Heart of the Wildfire 306 100.0% 29.73 100.0% -0.27 -0.0263 -0.87
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 713 100.0% 35.74 100.0% 0.045 -0.4045 -0.063
Lightning's Swift Strike 182 488.67% 28.07 264.29% 0.11 0.3136 -0.257
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 49 47.92% 35.43 77.55% 1.199 0.5021 0.615
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 853 43.4% 37.35 79.95% 0.89 0.6505 0.939
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 501 41.58% 33.77 76.65% -0.104 -0.2634 0.799
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 601 100.0% 31.92 100.0% 0.121 -0.0237 -0.076
Many Minds Move as One 304 100.0% 31.08 100.0% -0.312 -0.5333 0.563
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 500 100.0% 34.42 100.0% -0.159 -0.1681 0.268
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 390 100.0% 30.69 100.0% 0.659 0.5175 0.015
River Surges in Sunlight 333 203.16% 36.23 152.25% 0.686 0.6891 -0.137
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 599 43.17% 30.26 74.12% 0.064 0.3344 -0.69
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 47 42.22% 26.47 59.57% -0.809 -0.9382 -0.484
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 332 100.0% 35.93 100.0% 0.21 -0.0032 0.109
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 355 101.97% 35.4 101.97% -1.256 -1.3847 0.418
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 17 58.82% 20.47 58.82% 0.436 0.0731 -0.211
Shifting Memory of Ages 180 100.0% 28.66 100.0% -0.265 0.1422 -0.607
Shroud of Silent Mist 307 100.0% 28.82 100.0% -0.239 0.0756 0.278
Starlight Seeks its Form 138 100.0% 33.24 100.0% 0.028 -0.245 1.107
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 452 100.0% 34.1 100.0% 0.002 -0.4929 -0.118
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 354 100.0% 34.37 100.0% 0.117 0.1471 0.767
Thunderspeaker 394 101.27% 32.2 101.27% -0.324 -0.3433 0.031
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 8 37.5% 15.5 37.5% -0.69 -0.7527 0.183
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 353 100.0% 31.24 100.0% 0.119 0.1806 -0.066
Vital Strength of the Earth 209 205.56% 26.41 139.23% 0.028 0.5806 -1.314
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 27 23.08% 31.3 81.48% 0.016 0.2717 0.092
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 353 40.06% 27.71 78.19% 0.034 0.9311 -0.727
Volcano Looming High 329 100.0% 30.2 100.0% -0.266 -0.2556 -1.197

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 70.65%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.89%
Favors Called Due 87.98%
Mantle of Dread 88.34%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1159 21.03 5.87%
II 4621 31.04 48.58%
III 7404 34.74 86.25%
IV 4249 38.02 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 68
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6281
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2145
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4198
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 216
Lose: Invader deck ran out 53
Lose: Adversary condition 1458
Win: Sacrifice victory 63
Lose: Scenario condition 196
Win: Scenario condition 178
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2477
Lose: Spirit destroyed 100

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.338 Win Model: -0.189

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.076 Win Model: 0.08
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9943 47.24% 31.19 74.22%
2 4410 49.11% 31.58 72.59%
3 1716 47.42% 34.08 76.05%
4 1142 40.76% 33.73 76.01%
5 39 32.43% 23.03 76.92%
6 183 28.73% 29.61 81.42%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)