Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 142 55.63% 26.72 60.56% -0.024 0.2337 -0.798
Dahan Insurrection 4 190 27.37% 53.77 72.11% 0.382 0.795 0.638
Despicable Theft 2 45 55.56% 32.33 66.67% -0.135 0.3114 -0.202
Elemental Invocation 1 74 47.95% 31.84 74.32% 0.0 0.4858 -0.885
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1023 23.38% 46.63 76.54% 0.242 0.5478 1.114
Powers Long Forgotten 1 94 65.96% 30.6 61.7% 0.143 0.3249 -0.543
Rituals of Terror 3 33 71.88% 38.64 75.76% 0.0 0.1212 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 31 64.52% 36.9 67.74% -0.32 0.095 0.118
Second Wave 0 601 48.2% 27.89 75.21% 0.398 0.9635 -0.521
The Great River 3 34 58.82% 29.82 38.24% -0.556 0.8419 -0.786
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 53.5 100.0% 0.419 0.945 0.434
Ward the Shores 2 61 70.0% 26.8 39.34% 0.111 1.2725 -0.266

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8198 47.48% 31.49 75.81% 0.835 1.8511 0.277
1 Thematic 414 56.9% 32.55 60.14% -0.004 1.1683 -0.505
2 Archipelago 15 33.33% 50.4 100.0% 0.0 0.9835 0.618
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2527 50.37% 31.95 73.96% 0.221 0.9722 0.281
2 Coastline 426 54.12% 32.8 55.16% -1.26 -0.6573 -0.66
2 Fragment 54 50.94% 31.13 88.89% 0.107 0.5544 0.033
2 Heart 53 56.6% 23.7 64.15% 0.113 0.6516 -0.086
2 Opposite Shores 513 34.38% 31.98 83.24% -0.096 0.8962 -0.252
2 Thematic 157 58.97% 34.38 68.15% 0.205 0.9034 0.35
2 Top to Top 65 56.92% 33.32 67.69% 0.19 0.6999 -0.404
3 Archipelago 9 55.56% 33.89 66.67% 0.0 0.1732 0.0
3 Coastline 11 36.36% 37.0 72.73% 0.24 -0.5426 -0.091
3 Other 50 44.0% 32.02 84.0% 0.413 0.3777 -0.366
3 Round (Default) 1384 46.8% 35.1 76.95% -0.363 0.2316 0.23
3 Sunrise 6 16.67% 31.67 100.0% 0.047 0.084 0.0
3 Thematic 55 58.18% 35.58 72.73% 0.125 0.0878 0.38
4 Archipelago 8 37.5% 23.0 75.0% 0.235 -0.4764 -0.146
4 Coastline 7 28.57% 25.14 42.86% -0.556 -0.4392 0.0
4 Leaf 10 60.0% 31.1 80.0% 0.0 0.5626 0.0
4 Other 42 52.38% 33.98 83.33% 0.023 -0.2309 0.0
4 Thematic 161 36.65% 42.63 73.29% 0.063 0.5917 -0.313
4 Trapezoid (Default) 809 40.7% 32.94 77.13% -0.062 -0.0888 0.542
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5788 0.0
5 Other 33 43.75% 30.33 78.79% -0.411 -0.2424 0.157
5 Thematic 7 28.57% 32.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.2767 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2557 0.0
6 Other 20 15.0% 25.4 95.0% 0.113 0.9223 -0.286
6 Star 3 33.33% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 0.7835 0.247
6 Thematic 38 31.58% 28.68 81.58% 0.008 -0.2702 -0.338
6 Two Centers (Default) 54 25.93% 34.11 85.19% 0.405 0.3107 0.305
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.008 -1.1444 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 532 32.22 54.32% -0.101 1.8017 0.04
Aid From Lesser Spirits 475 32.46 53.26% -1.212 0.5182 0.167
All Things Weaken 576 30.08 53.13% -1.503 0.4822 -0.101
Back Against the Wall 394 30.62 50.0% -1.536 0.2802 -0.514
Disintegrating Ecosystem 493 28.3 50.1% -1.657 0.3933 -0.881
Downward Spiral 549 30.15 58.29% -0.602 1.3909 -0.339
Erosion of Will 489 31.04 54.81% -1.25 0.8335 -0.088
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 185 32.35 80.0% -0.526 -0.0854 0.344
Memory Fades to Dust 568 30.49 57.92% -0.667 1.4171 -0.162
Power Corrodes the Spirit 574 29.7 55.75% -1.349 0.5898 0.012
Promising Farmlands 455 30.07 52.97% -0.997 1.0488 -0.14
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 130 36.33 87.69% -0.076 0.349 0.269
Thriving Communities 528 29.59 53.6% -0.949 1.0347 -0.071
Unnatural Proliferation 576 31.49 56.08% -1.406 0.5587 0.224
Untended Land Crumbles 561 30.05 57.04% -1.468 0.5252 0.155

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3226 46.31% 32.19 74.71% -0.246 0.5511 -0.298
B 3222 48.85% 31.93 74.21% 0.628 1.3717 -0.65
C 3833 44.88% 33.53 76.86% -0.265 0.3036 0.148
D 3003 45.55% 32.17 76.39% -0.27 0.5261 0.092
E 3177 45.85% 33.18 75.57% 0.271 0.9183 0.069
F 2737 45.45% 32.24 76.69% 0.167 0.8915 -0.312
G 2487 46.81% 31.96 75.07% 0.233 0.9647 -0.136
H 2449 47.34% 32.26 76.03% 0.351 1.0629 -0.198
East 564 49.56% 36.95 69.5% 0.271 1.04 0.481
Northeast 335 47.76% 37.49 68.36% -0.219 0.6407 0.254
Northwest 273 46.15% 37.73 67.4% 0.121 1.1978 0.131
Southeast 194 43.01% 34.76 76.29% 0.743 1.4496 1.531
Southwest 193 53.37% 28.89 60.1% -0.725 0.4001 -0.532
West 516 50.39% 34.61 65.12% 0.206 1.1598 -0.549

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 203 0.0% 22.15 85.71% 0.427 2.5564 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 69 62.5% 19.78 76.81% 0.251 0.4265 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 432 11.66% 37.41 93.06% 0.478 0.3359 -0.227
Start of Game Growth 559 16.35% 38.69 91.95% 1.101 0.341 0.882
Unlimited Undo 1275 44.7% 32.98 78.9% -0.487 -1.0909 0.106
Using Tokens but Not Events 1866 25.93% 27.98 89.92% 1.09 0.9339 0.534

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 474 100.0% 34.52 100.0% 0.201 0.0862 0.251
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 422 100.0% 30.09 100.0% 0.456 0.5521 -0.777
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 338 100.0% 31.0 100.0% -0.298 -0.4596 0.293
Downpour Drenches the World 11 100.0% 33.18 100.0% 0.358 0.6106 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 440 100.0% 33.95 100.0% 0.756 0.3185 -0.2
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 358 100.0% 31.42 100.0% -0.48 -0.9681 -0.103
Finder of Paths Unseen 5 100.0% 22.6 100.0% -0.215 0.1484 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 337 100.0% 36.94 100.0% -0.094 -0.0375 0.544
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 228 100.0% 36.92 100.0% -0.343 -0.3744 0.097
Heart of the Wildfire 271 100.0% 30.36 100.0% -0.108 0.0663 -1.084
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 625 100.0% 36.61 100.0% -0.234 -0.6903 -0.187
Lightning's Swift Strike 163 494.48% 28.76 265.03% 0.46 0.7345 -0.182
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 9 55.56% 34.22 77.78% -0.064 -0.8408 0.052
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 798 43.2% 37.63 80.2% -0.111 -0.7543 0.84
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 465 42.58% 34.14 76.56% 0.048 -0.2182 0.787
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 546 100.0% 32.8 100.0% -0.221 -0.4875 -0.114
Many Minds Move as One 253 100.0% 32.49 100.0% 0.644 0.0415 0.861
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 448 100.0% 35.44 100.0% 0.371 0.186 0.234
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 351 100.0% 30.82 100.0% -0.338 -0.3176 -0.227
River Surges in Sunlight 297 203.58% 37.4 149.16% -0.055 -0.0895 -0.13
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 559 43.17% 30.7 74.06% 0.063 0.494 -0.696
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 9 33.33% 31.0 88.89% 0.141 -0.1597 0.434
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 288 100.0% 36.52 100.0% 0.354 0.301 -0.136
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 316 100.0% 36.06 100.0% 0.147 -0.1398 0.593
Shifting Memory of Ages 131 100.0% 30.18 100.0% -1.212 -1.1374 -0.113
Shroud of Silent Mist 258 100.0% 29.68 100.0% -0.273 -0.0368 0.639
Starlight Seeks its Form 89 100.0% 37.51 100.0% 1.228 1.089 1.08
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 400 100.0% 34.99 100.0% -0.708 -0.8905 -0.166
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 308 100.0% 35.72 100.0% -0.632 -0.4475 0.716
Thunderspeaker 358 100.0% 32.49 100.0% 0.057 0.1212 0.01
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 314 100.0% 31.71 100.0% 0.282 0.1916 -0.289
Vital Strength of the Earth 161 217.68% 27.18 143.48% -0.24 0.5682 -0.939
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 6 16.67% 32.67 100.0% 0.418 0.8048 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 325 41.61% 28.1 78.46% 0.376 1.5507 -0.715
Volcano Looming High 262 100.0% 31.1 100.0% -0.343 -0.3474 -1.172

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 70.42%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.03%
Favors Called Due 88.04%
Mantle of Dread 88.65%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 877 22.56 6.27%
II 4011 30.98 48.47%
III 6485 34.53 86.23%
IV 3763 37.77 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 55
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5497
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1854
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3717
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47
Lose: Adversary condition 1306
Win: Sacrifice victory 57
Lose: Scenario condition 185
Win: Scenario condition 161
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2167
Lose: Spirit destroyed 90

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.206 Win Model: -0.326

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.05 Win Model: 0.423
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 8635 47.92% 31.55 75.08%
2 3812 49.27% 32.12 72.9%
3 1507 46.83% 35.02 77.11%
4 1047 40.56% 34.32 76.5%
5 19 36.84% 28.47 84.21%
6 116 25.0% 30.74 86.21%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)