Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.073 0.5685 0.0
Blitz 0 153 57.52% 26.78 60.78% -0.463 -0.0199 -0.854
Dahan Insurrection 4 198 26.26% 53.82 73.23% 0.332 0.4292 0.624
Despicable Theft 2 47 53.19% 32.87 68.09% 0.178 0.6765 -0.224
Elemental Invocation 1 79 50.0% 31.53 73.42% 0.193 0.7385 -0.883
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1085 23.06% 46.95 76.96% 0.524 0.7559 1.09
Powers Long Forgotten 1 98 67.35% 30.36 60.2% -0.61 -0.2022 -0.523
Rituals of Terror 3 35 73.53% 37.74 74.29% -0.393 -0.6286 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 33 63.64% 37.97 69.7% 0.309 0.535 0.105
Second Wave 0 642 47.6% 28.12 75.08% -0.586 0.1068 -0.833
The Great River 3 35 57.14% 30.11 40.0% 0.102 1.6833 -0.785
Varied Terrains 2 8 75.0% 39.13 87.5% -0.173 0.6131 0.486
Ward the Shores 2 62 70.49% 27.03 40.32% 0.063 0.9434 -0.279

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8826 47.4% 31.5 75.55% -0.138 0.5246 0.21
1 Thematic 445 54.95% 32.87 62.47% 0.623 1.6797 -0.596
2 Archipelago 15 33.33% 50.4 100.0% 0.0 0.4709 0.645
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2698 50.34% 31.95 74.35% 0.207 0.7247 0.29
2 Coastline 454 54.3% 32.5 56.39% -0.105 0.0951 -0.668
2 Fragment 55 51.85% 31.0 87.27% -0.437 -0.1384 -0.014
2 Heart 62 51.61% 24.98 66.13% -0.14 0.3203 -0.09
2 Opposite Shores 551 34.91% 32.22 83.48% 0.194 0.7327 -0.196
2 Thematic 165 59.76% 34.78 67.88% -0.264 0.5186 0.611
2 Top to Top 71 60.56% 32.55 64.79% -1.023 -0.8947 -0.428
3 Archipelago 13 38.46% 33.62 76.92% 0.179 -0.0389 0.0
3 Coastline 11 36.36% 37.0 72.73% 0.0 -0.5071 -0.092
3 Other 52 44.23% 31.44 84.62% 0.235 -0.4287 -0.399
3 Round (Default) 1451 47.05% 34.94 77.19% 0.087 0.3917 0.28
3 Sunrise 6 16.67% 31.67 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 56 58.93% 35.23 71.43% -0.388 -0.1797 0.352
4 Archipelago 9 44.44% 23.44 66.67% -0.171 -0.2087 -0.247
4 Coastline 8 37.5% 25.13 37.5% -0.311 -0.348 -0.099
4 Leaf 11 63.64% 30.27 81.82% 0.219 0.1167 0.0
4 Other 46 54.35% 33.04 82.61% -0.172 -0.8862 -0.138
4 Thematic 164 37.8% 42.24 73.17% 0.075 0.1785 -0.271
4 Trapezoid (Default) 853 40.6% 32.92 77.49% 0.383 0.4606 0.567
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Other 36 40.0% 29.75 80.56% 0.347 -0.1692 0.373
5 Thematic 7 28.57% 32.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.2873 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Other 20 15.0% 25.4 95.0% 0.0 0.0448 -0.245
6 Star 4 25.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.071 0.8411 0.249
6 Thematic 44 31.82% 29.16 77.27% -0.603 -0.362 -0.572
6 Two Centers (Default) 71 25.35% 34.07 88.73% 0.615 0.8062 0.453
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 557 32.11 53.86% -1.82 0.1507 -0.006
Aid From Lesser Spirits 507 32.17 53.25% -1.741 0.0363 0.059
All Things Weaken 616 29.85 52.92% -1.515 0.5338 -0.192
Back Against the Wall 416 30.53 50.24% -1.248 0.6909 -0.525
Disintegrating Ecosystem 539 28.19 49.91% -1.175 0.9535 -0.964
Downward Spiral 586 30.11 58.53% -1.483 0.4786 -0.352
Erosion of Will 517 31.16 54.93% -1.07 1.012 -0.058
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 202 32.23 78.71% -0.014 0.4872 0.064
Memory Fades to Dust 609 30.71 58.46% -0.984 1.1568 -0.14
Power Corrodes the Spirit 611 29.8 55.81% -1.42 0.5606 0.029
Promising Farmlands 492 30.1 52.64% -1.697 0.3244 -0.189
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 142 35.84 88.73% 0.645 1.142 0.26
Thriving Communities 578 29.43 52.94% -1.512 0.5474 -0.156
Unnatural Proliferation 609 31.47 56.65% -0.955 1.0019 0.158
Untended Land Crumbles 604 29.91 56.95% -1.132 0.9012 0.209

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3439 46.45% 32.15 75.02% -0.07 0.6663 -0.275
B 3435 48.79% 31.91 74.47% -0.155 0.5424 -0.597
C 4111 44.91% 33.4 77.04% 0.019 0.4883 0.154
D 3228 45.28% 32.11 76.43% -0.677 0.032 0.008
E 3403 46.44% 33.05 75.67% 0.592 1.1361 0.067
F 2933 45.22% 32.22 76.92% -0.137 0.525 -0.312
G 2648 46.45% 32.02 75.23% 0.369 0.9999 -0.055
H 2621 47.04% 32.3 76.31% 0.001 0.6656 -0.149
East 598 49.41% 36.81 69.57% -0.962 -0.3008 0.43
Northeast 363 47.38% 37.31 68.6% -0.639 0.0211 0.249
Northwest 289 47.06% 37.47 67.13% 0.535 1.1454 0.237
Southeast 204 43.35% 34.64 75.49% 0.24 0.7713 1.561
Southwest 202 52.97% 28.93 60.4% -0.242 0.7263 -0.59
West 542 50.18% 34.6 65.68% 0.512 1.3174 -0.664

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 210 0.0% 22.23 86.19% 0.28 2.5089 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 73 62.5% 20.0 78.08% 0.178 0.4046 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 473 11.26% 37.13 93.23% 0.47 -0.5104 -0.253
Start of Game Growth 622 15.04% 38.17 92.44% 0.138 -0.3187 0.919
Unlimited Undo 1375 44.0% 33.02 79.2% -0.06 -0.6112 0.19
Using Tokens but Not Events 2007 26.1% 27.93 89.84% 0.174 0.3288 0.514

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 512 100.0% 34.27 100.0% 0.238 0.1632 0.367
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 457 100.0% 30.39 100.0% 1.271 1.3498 -0.67
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 357 100.0% 31.17 100.0% -0.73 -0.9548 0.354
Downpour Drenches the World 31 100.0% 30.52 100.0% -0.613 -0.3486 -0.544
Eyes Watch From the Trees 467 100.0% 33.68 100.0% 0.153 -0.3505 -0.227
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 377 100.0% 31.27 100.0% 0.59 0.0031 -0.107
Finder of Paths Unseen 10 100.0% 25.0 100.0% -0.649 -0.2934 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 347 100.0% 36.97 100.0% 0.057 0.1386 0.504
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 267 100.0% 37.08 100.0% 1.007 0.9125 0.18
Heart of the Wildfire 283 100.0% 30.52 100.0% 0.341 0.7466 -0.914
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 667 100.0% 36.59 100.0% 0.108 -0.4952 -0.111
Lightning's Swift Strike 170 496.81% 28.61 265.88% -0.136 0.2283 -0.235
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 30 56.67% 35.63 70.0% -0.15 -0.8992 0.303
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 817 43.3% 37.55 80.29% -0.015 -0.5787 0.845
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 486 42.38% 34.13 76.95% 0.396 -0.0983 0.751
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 572 100.0% 32.42 100.0% -0.266 -0.4177 -0.101
Many Minds Move as One 274 100.0% 32.2 100.0% 0.264 -0.3215 0.669
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 469 100.0% 35.19 100.0% 0.207 0.0372 0.268
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 364 100.0% 30.71 100.0% 0.038 -0.0186 -0.035
River Surges in Sunlight 312 205.26% 36.84 148.4% -0.875 -0.9493 -0.16
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 584 42.93% 30.59 74.49% -0.39 0.0361 -0.703
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 20 35.0% 33.55 90.0% 0.468 0.1269 0.152
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 305 100.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.307 0.1137 0.04
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 340 100.0% 35.92 100.0% -0.156 -0.3476 0.536
Shifting Memory of Ages 141 100.0% 29.78 100.0% 0.382 0.5964 -0.129
Shroud of Silent Mist 275 100.0% 29.44 100.0% -0.264 -0.13 0.612
Starlight Seeks its Form 107 100.0% 35.6 100.0% -0.735 -0.8496 1.048
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 427 100.0% 34.94 100.0% -0.767 -1.0056 -0.157
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 328 100.0% 35.49 100.0% 0.152 0.2826 0.723
Thunderspeaker 376 100.0% 32.84 100.0% 0.001 -0.0163 0.001
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 333 100.0% 31.8 100.0% 0.367 0.1513 -0.144
Vital Strength of the Earth 178 215.47% 27.04 140.45% -0.377 0.5213 -1.222
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 14 21.43% 31.86 85.71% -0.686 -0.2633 0.075
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 335 40.36% 27.99 79.1% 0.333 1.4471 -0.647
Volcano Looming High 286 100.0% 31.28 100.0% 0.168 0.1472 -1.182

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 70.36%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.81%
Favors Called Due 88.02%
Mantle of Dread 88.47%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 932 22.65 6.76%
II 4319 31.08 48.67%
III 6962 34.66 86.25%
IV 4001 37.91 99.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 63
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5906
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2007
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3954
Lose: Invader deck ran out 50
Lose: Adversary condition 1388
Win: Sacrifice victory 58
Lose: Scenario condition 190
Win: Scenario condition 170
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2334
Lose: Spirit destroyed 94

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.867 Win Model: -0.342

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.067 Win Model: 0.071
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9300 47.76% 31.57 74.92%
2 4074 49.38% 32.14 73.29%
3 1578 46.94% 34.83 77.38%
4 1100 40.88% 34.15 76.64%
5 22 31.82% 27.77 86.36%
6 140 25.0% 31.24 86.43%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)