Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.116 -0.3307 0.0
Blitz 0 153 57.52% 26.78 60.78% -0.518 -0.0614 -0.836
Dahan Insurrection 4 202 25.74% 53.74 73.76% 0.514 0.5338 0.662
Despicable Theft 2 48 54.17% 32.38 66.67% -0.382 0.1306 -0.226
Elemental Invocation 1 81 50.0% 31.53 72.84% -0.186 0.5131 -1.007
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1118 23.0% 47.4 77.28% 0.597 0.6383 1.185
Powers Long Forgotten 1 100 68.0% 29.97 59.0% -1.235 -0.6731 -0.509
Rituals of Terror 3 36 71.43% 38.19 75.0% -0.213 -0.501 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 34 61.76% 38.12 70.59% 0.321 0.7512 0.075
Second Wave 0 655 47.41% 28.11 74.96% -0.124 0.3383 -0.978
The Great River 3 35 57.14% 30.11 40.0% 0.038 1.8042 -0.773
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 40.4 90.0% 0.184 1.0123 0.609
Ward the Shores 2 62 70.49% 27.03 40.32% 0.037 0.7814 -0.299

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9035 47.29% 31.56 75.64% 0.501 1.0514 0.428
1 Thematic 459 54.37% 33.29 62.53% 0.187 1.1854 -0.394
2 Archipelago 15 33.33% 50.4 100.0% 0.0 0.6175 0.645
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2764 50.13% 31.89 74.49% 0.059 0.4688 0.431
2 Coastline 461 55.0% 32.52 56.62% 0.172 0.3077 -0.594
2 Fragment 62 54.1% 30.23 82.26% -0.546 -0.5513 -0.358
2 Heart 65 53.85% 24.98 64.62% -0.039 0.4355 -0.359
2 Opposite Shores 575 35.19% 32.17 83.13% -0.023 0.3303 -0.176
2 Thematic 175 60.34% 34.62 66.29% -0.486 0.4437 0.347
2 Top to Top 75 58.67% 32.15 66.67% 0.457 0.5832 -0.402
3 Archipelago 14 35.71% 33.43 78.57% 0.026 0.2049 0.0
3 Coastline 12 33.33% 35.75 75.0% 0.122 -0.2951 -0.063
3 Other 52 44.23% 31.44 84.62% 0.858 0.1386 -0.384
3 Round (Default) 1487 47.19% 34.79 77.2% 0.306 0.4993 0.321
3 Sunrise 7 28.57% 30.43 85.71% -0.408 -0.2594 0.0
3 Thematic 58 58.62% 35.03 70.69% -0.248 -0.2328 0.369
4 Archipelago 9 44.44% 23.44 66.67% 0.0 -0.4195 -0.259
4 Coastline 8 37.5% 25.13 37.5% 0.0 -0.0727 -0.082
4 Leaf 11 63.64% 30.27 81.82% 0.278 0.1819 0.0
4 Other 47 55.32% 33.17 82.98% 0.0 -0.6161 -0.141
4 Thematic 167 38.32% 41.98 73.05% -0.287 -0.0038 -0.342
4 Trapezoid (Default) 869 40.47% 32.9 77.68% 0.474 0.6616 0.603
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3838 0.0
5 Other 45 41.86% 26.73 77.78% -0.75 -1.3809 0.328
5 Thematic 7 28.57% 32.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.9744 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0703 0.0
6 Other 23 13.04% 25.22 95.65% 0.338 0.0956 -0.239
6 Star 4 25.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.0 0.5458 0.3
6 Thematic 44 31.82% 29.16 77.27% 0.154 0.1999 -0.508
6 Two Centers (Default) 79 25.97% 32.78 86.08% -0.461 0.0025 0.498
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.221 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3606 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 572 32.08 54.02% -1.183 0.5474 -0.007
Aid From Lesser Spirits 518 32.21 53.67% -0.766 0.8095 0.067
All Things Weaken 633 29.99 53.24% -1.225 0.6525 -0.165
Back Against the Wall 434 30.84 50.92% -1.002 0.6344 -0.468
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 22.0 0.0% -0.619 0.8291 -0.219
Disintegrating Ecosystem 548 28.13 49.82% -1.142 0.7007 -0.968
Downward Spiral 596 30.15 59.06% -0.146 1.5525 -0.258
Erosion of Will 536 30.9 55.04% -0.778 1.1226 -0.08
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 209 32.09 78.47% 0.19 0.6903 -0.011
Memory Fades to Dust 620 30.68 58.23% -1.156 0.7203 -0.161
Power Corrodes the Spirit 623 29.68 55.22% -2.026 -0.3213 0.035
Promising Farmlands 501 30.28 52.89% -0.199 1.6764 -0.156
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 146 36.0 89.04% 0.766 0.9757 0.513
Thriving Communities 590 29.34 52.71% -1.25 0.6202 -0.231
Unnatural Proliferation 629 31.36 57.07% -0.856 0.8979 0.114
Untended Land Crumbles 617 29.83 57.21% -0.968 0.8462 0.221

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3529 46.34% 32.02 75.01% -0.306 0.4715 -0.305
B 3522 48.82% 31.82 74.5% 0.575 1.2783 -0.613
C 4221 44.85% 33.37 77.19% 0.059 0.5863 0.172
D 3341 45.21% 32.08 76.5% 0.099 0.8339 0.001
E 3502 46.27% 32.92 75.79% 0.436 1.0197 0.047
F 3014 45.23% 32.12 77.07% 0.388 1.0947 -0.319
G 2722 46.42% 31.9 75.09% -0.25 0.3922 -0.067
H 2692 47.13% 32.17 76.11% 0.107 0.7526 -0.22
East 622 49.28% 36.98 69.13% -0.472 0.1199 0.228
Northeast 377 48.01% 37.29 68.17% -0.345 0.3318 0.304
Northwest 294 47.28% 37.26 66.67% 0.339 0.777 0.254
Southeast 211 42.86% 35.04 75.83% 0.271 0.9347 1.736
Southwest 206 53.88% 28.64 59.71% -0.353 0.8182 -0.552
West 554 50.54% 34.42 65.16% -0.363 0.4546 -0.642

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 220 0.0% 21.91 84.55% -1.036 1.0392 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 75 62.5% 19.48 76.0% -1.068 -0.8959 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 488 11.68% 37.15 93.03% 0.572 -0.4874 -0.4
Start of Game Growth 641 15.54% 38.12 92.2% 0.327 -0.0951 0.849
Unlimited Undo 1414 44.08% 32.98 79.28% -0.291 -0.7065 0.152
Using Tokens but Not Events 2045 26.16% 27.86 89.58% -0.058 0.0578 0.512

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 531 100.0% 34.01 100.0% 0.24 0.0612 0.394
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 470 100.0% 30.44 100.0% 1.296 1.3101 -0.568
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 366 100.0% 31.04 100.0% -0.214 -0.4594 0.39
Downpour Drenches the World 39 100.0% 29.85 100.0% -0.447 -0.0597 -0.548
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 3 100.0% 10.67 100.0% -0.228 0.0075 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 489 100.0% 33.21 100.0% 0.044 -0.4297 -0.157
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 386 100.0% 31.29 100.0% 0.386 -0.061 -0.093
Finder of Paths Unseen 11 100.0% 25.18 100.0% -0.625 -0.2616 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 353 100.0% 36.79 100.0% -0.034 0.0693 0.555
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 281 100.0% 36.72 100.0% 0.228 0.1639 0.243
Heart of the Wildfire 293 100.0% 30.41 100.0% -0.091 0.1683 -0.818
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 687 100.0% 36.31 100.0% 0.439 -0.1442 -0.053
Lightning's Swift Strike 172 499.48% 28.5 263.95% 0.515 0.7829 -0.222
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 40 52.5% 36.65 77.5% 0.801 -0.0128 0.566
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 828 43.33% 37.59 80.56% 1.022 0.4792 0.945
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 493 42.06% 34.06 77.28% 0.561 0.0829 0.789
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 581 100.0% 32.3 100.0% -0.343 -0.4646 -0.074
Many Minds Move as One 288 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.454 -1.077 0.656
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 479 100.0% 35.09 100.0% 0.5 0.3724 0.305
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 377 100.0% 30.54 100.0% -0.325 -0.4082 0.014
River Surges in Sunlight 317 205.45% 36.58 150.16% -0.293 -0.4847 -0.177
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 589 42.81% 30.47 74.36% 0.001 0.289 -0.682
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 30 37.93% 31.0 73.33% -0.578 -0.9407 -0.425
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 316 100.0% 36.2 100.0% 1.404 1.2302 0.08
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 348 100.0% 35.7 100.0% -0.14 -0.3397 0.613
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 1 100.0% 9.0 100.0% 0.119 0.4138 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 157 100.0% 29.04 100.0% -0.681 -0.4518 -0.309
Shroud of Silent Mist 292 100.0% 29.1 100.0% -0.873 -0.6891 0.153
Starlight Seeks its Form 114 100.0% 35.34 100.0% -0.499 -0.6554 1.004
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 433 100.0% 34.84 100.0% -1.076 -1.3397 -0.131
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 336 100.0% 35.31 100.0% 0.489 0.5517 0.757
Thunderspeaker 378 100.0% 32.75 100.0% -0.562 -0.6386 0.059
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 340 100.0% 31.61 100.0% 0.174 -0.0884 -0.116
Vital Strength of the Earth 189 210.82% 26.79 139.15% -0.112 0.6414 -1.25
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 20 25.0% 32.1 90.0% 0.218 0.7961 0.112
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 340 40.3% 27.79 78.82% -0.431 0.7187 -0.658
Volcano Looming High 301 100.0% 30.87 100.0% -0.309 -0.3123 -1.187

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 70.4%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.77%
Favors Called Due 87.99%
Mantle of Dread 88.42%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 959 22.63 6.78%
II 4432 31.12 48.74%
III 7141 34.7 86.3%
IV 4108 37.97 99.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 65
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6061
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2061
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4061
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9
Lose: Invader deck ran out 51
Lose: Adversary condition 1421
Win: Sacrifice victory 61
Lose: Scenario condition 192
Win: Scenario condition 174
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2388
Lose: Spirit destroyed 96

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.193 Win Model: -0.277

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.226 Win Model: 0.16
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9524 47.63% 31.64 75.0%
2 4196 49.38% 32.07 73.28%
3 1621 47.18% 34.64 77.3%
4 1117 40.74% 34.11 76.81%
5 31 36.67% 23.97 80.65%
6 151 24.83% 30.58 85.43%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)