Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.105 0.545 0.0
Blitz 0 146 56.85% 26.73 60.96% -0.245 0.0111 -0.821
Dahan Insurrection 4 193 26.94% 53.73 72.54% 0.24 0.5418 0.612
Despicable Theft 2 45 55.56% 32.33 66.67% 0.0 0.5447 -0.209
Elemental Invocation 1 77 48.68% 31.38 72.73% -0.85 -0.2387 -0.882
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1056 23.03% 46.91 76.99% 0.567 0.7608 1.109
Powers Long Forgotten 1 95 66.32% 30.48 61.05% -0.333 -0.0875 -0.529
Rituals of Terror 3 33 71.88% 38.64 75.76% 0.0 -0.8362 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 31 64.52% 36.9 67.74% 0.0 0.5254 0.108
Second Wave 0 626 48.19% 27.89 74.6% -1.04 -0.4677 -0.826
The Great River 3 34 58.82% 29.82 38.24% 0.0 1.6389 -0.783
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 42.75 100.0% 0.404 1.1498 0.489
Ward the Shores 2 61 70.0% 26.8 39.34% 0.031 1.0854 -0.271

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8580 47.44% 31.53 75.62% 0.091 0.5366 0.24
1 Thematic 440 54.67% 32.8 62.27% 0.657 1.2894 -0.527
2 Archipelago 15 33.33% 50.4 100.0% 0.0 0.0128 0.611
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2632 50.27% 31.9 74.2% 0.337 0.6819 0.27
2 Coastline 440 53.99% 32.59 55.68% -0.308 -0.2256 -0.709
2 Fragment 54 50.94% 31.13 88.89% 0.0 0.088 0.0
2 Heart 60 53.33% 25.1 65.0% -0.542 0.0692 -0.091
2 Opposite Shores 531 35.28% 32.01 83.43% 0.426 0.8038 -0.178
2 Thematic 159 58.86% 34.4 67.92% -0.276 0.2419 0.378
2 Top to Top 71 60.56% 32.55 64.79% -0.838 -0.699 -0.413
3 Archipelago 9 55.56% 33.89 66.67% 0.0 -0.9775 0.0
3 Coastline 11 36.36% 37.0 72.73% 0.0 -0.6489 -0.094
3 Other 50 44.0% 32.02 84.0% 0.165 -0.9061 -0.395
3 Round (Default) 1422 47.24% 35.03 77.0% 0.189 0.3815 0.21
3 Sunrise 6 16.67% 31.67 100.0% 0.0 0.3199 0.0
3 Thematic 56 58.93% 35.23 71.43% -0.356 -0.6019 0.371
4 Archipelago 8 37.5% 23.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.4019 -0.153
4 Coastline 7 28.57% 25.14 42.86% 0.0 0.1977 0.0
4 Leaf 10 60.0% 31.1 80.0% 0.0 0.4908 0.0
4 Other 44 54.55% 33.41 84.09% 0.436 -0.1048 0.0
4 Thematic 163 37.42% 42.41 73.62% 0.227 0.2329 -0.277
4 Trapezoid (Default) 833 40.61% 33.01 77.55% 0.093 -0.0476 0.56
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3169 0.0
5 Other 36 40.0% 29.75 80.56% 0.492 0.3163 0.396
5 Thematic 7 28.57% 32.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.0346 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7508 0.0
6 Other 20 15.0% 25.4 95.0% 0.0 0.697 -0.282
6 Star 3 33.33% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 0.5325 0.263
6 Thematic 41 34.15% 28.27 78.05% -0.763 -0.2644 -0.592
6 Two Centers (Default) 64 26.56% 33.48 87.5% 0.202 0.4276 0.385
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.001 -0.7701 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 546 32.13 53.85% -1.776 0.1332 -0.024
Aid From Lesser Spirits 498 32.26 53.41% -1.027 0.6578 0.087
All Things Weaken 598 29.99 53.18% -1.293 0.7063 -0.161
Back Against the Wall 409 30.61 50.37% -1.717 0.231 -0.502
Disintegrating Ecosystem 529 28.18 49.72% -1.397 0.6684 -0.935
Downward Spiral 569 30.21 58.52% -0.81 1.1528 -0.347
Erosion of Will 505 31.02 54.65% -1.306 0.8013 -0.114
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 194 32.16 79.38% -0.408 0.2084 0.261
Memory Fades to Dust 589 30.56 58.06% -0.96 1.0976 -0.144
Power Corrodes the Spirit 592 29.81 55.91% -1.094 0.8847 0.028
Promising Farmlands 478 30.09 52.51% -1.623 0.4791 -0.274
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 136 36.18 88.24% 0.641 0.9704 0.251
Thriving Communities 562 29.41 53.02% -1.566 0.4836 -0.103
Unnatural Proliferation 594 31.52 56.57% -0.817 1.1268 0.208
Untended Land Crumbles 588 30.06 57.14% -1.103 0.9235 0.181

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3349 46.65% 32.14 74.86% 0.089 0.848 -0.28
B 3358 48.96% 31.91 74.3% 0.087 0.7636 -0.631
C 3985 44.99% 33.4 77.01% 0.184 0.7092 0.141
D 3126 45.18% 32.17 76.74% 0.211 0.9375 0.133
E 3314 46.23% 33.12 75.47% -0.07 0.4899 0.064
F 2844 45.44% 32.24 76.83% 0.142 0.832 -0.31
G 2585 46.66% 32.0 75.05% -0.362 0.3336 -0.079
H 2550 47.21% 32.34 76.2% 0.463 1.1235 -0.17
East 587 49.15% 36.81 69.85% -0.991 -0.312 0.412
Northeast 354 47.18% 37.22 68.64% -0.033 0.5373 0.225
Northwest 283 47.0% 37.33 67.14% -0.191 0.6507 0.127
Southeast 200 43.72% 34.65 76.0% 0.201 0.727 1.511
Southwest 198 53.54% 28.72 60.1% 0.067 1.0085 -0.539
West 534 50.19% 34.48 65.54% 0.437 1.4369 -0.577

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 207 0.0% 22.19 85.99% 0.145 2.2642 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 72 62.5% 19.92 77.78% 0.131 0.3713 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 459 11.41% 37.22 93.25% 0.447 0.0783 -0.236
Start of Game Growth 601 15.26% 38.39 92.51% 1.279 0.6559 0.916
Unlimited Undo 1335 43.82% 33.02 79.33% -0.407 -1.038 0.127
Using Tokens but Not Events 1954 26.01% 27.92 89.92% 0.544 0.5873 0.494

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 498 100.0% 34.28 100.0% -0.484 -0.5319 0.317
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 437 100.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.975 1.0385 -0.765
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 349 100.0% 31.08 100.0% -0.011 -0.2494 0.356
Downpour Drenches the World 23 100.0% 27.87 100.0% -1.38 -0.9886 -0.618
Eyes Watch From the Trees 457 100.0% 33.67 100.0% -0.073 -0.4884 -0.215
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 367 100.0% 31.29 100.0% -0.136 -0.7306 -0.096
Finder of Paths Unseen 5 100.0% 22.6 100.0% 0.0 0.4044 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 342 100.0% 36.83 100.0% 0.102 0.1447 0.516
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 261 100.0% 36.82 100.0% 0.206 0.1889 0.105
Heart of the Wildfire 277 100.0% 30.31 100.0% -0.059 0.2698 -1.052
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 648 100.0% 36.61 100.0% -0.766 -1.4005 -0.117
Lightning's Swift Strike 166 497.28% 28.73 265.06% 0.058 0.3311 -0.184
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 17 47.06% 35.24 82.35% 0.553 -0.2796 0.339
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 810 43.18% 37.66 80.25% -0.174 -0.7458 0.865
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 477 42.98% 34.13 76.73% 0.278 -0.1461 0.763
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 555 100.0% 32.63 100.0% -0.239 -0.4461 -0.094
Many Minds Move as One 266 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.201 -0.3118 0.754
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 460 100.0% 35.38 100.0% 0.121 -0.162 0.247
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 360 100.0% 30.72 100.0% -0.617 -0.5845 -0.117
River Surges in Sunlight 303 204.78% 37.17 148.84% -0.125 -0.1188 -0.108
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 573 42.88% 30.7 74.52% 0.163 0.6076 -0.675
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 15 46.67% 31.33 86.67% 0.081 -0.1618 0.155
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 298 100.0% 36.43 100.0% 0.215 0.0712 -0.043
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 325 100.0% 36.03 100.0% 0.104 -0.1573 0.53
Shifting Memory of Ages 139 100.0% 29.81 100.0% 0.435 0.4569 -0.111
Shroud of Silent Mist 268 100.0% 29.57 100.0% 0.135 0.3802 0.675
Starlight Seeks its Form 100 100.0% 36.15 100.0% -0.736 -0.9474 1.043
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 410 100.0% 34.98 100.0% -0.397 -0.5661 -0.141
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 322 100.0% 35.52 100.0% 0.478 0.5883 0.709
Thunderspeaker 368 100.0% 32.57 100.0% 0.196 0.1006 0.02
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 326 100.0% 31.52 100.0% -0.461 -0.5582 -0.215
Vital Strength of the Earth 167 219.41% 27.28 141.92% 0.489 1.3715 -0.914
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 10 10.0% 32.6 100.0% 0.201 0.6021 0.076
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 331 40.85% 28.07 78.85% 0.362 1.4041 -0.682
Volcano Looming High 278 100.0% 31.41 100.0% 0.638 0.6222 -1.165

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 70.4%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.94%
Favors Called Due 88.06%
Mantle of Dread 88.53%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 911 22.62 6.48%
II 4193 31.05 48.65%
III 6774 34.62 86.2%
IV 3903 37.86 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 59
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5743
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1948
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3856
Lose: Invader deck ran out 50
Lose: Adversary condition 1357
Win: Sacrifice victory 58
Lose: Scenario condition 187
Win: Scenario condition 164
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2267
Lose: Spirit destroyed 92

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.852 Win Model: -0.338

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.039 Win Model: 0.368
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9048 47.78% 31.59 74.97%
2 3963 49.34% 32.07 73.13%
3 1545 47.23% 34.93 77.09%
4 1074 40.66% 34.3 76.91%
5 22 31.82% 27.77 86.36%
6 129 26.36% 30.51 86.05%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)