Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 0.0% 23.2 80.0% -0.465 -0.7209 0.0
Blitz 0 168 56.55% 25.96 58.33% -1.11 -0.9129 -0.823
Dahan Insurrection 4 213 24.88% 53.02 72.77% 0.293 -0.1498 0.655
Despicable Theft 2 51 50.98% 30.47 62.75% -0.447 0.3648 -0.237
Elemental Invocation 1 84 49.4% 31.04 71.43% 0.219 0.9222 -0.984
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1156 23.02% 47.1 76.82% 0.474 -0.171 1.25
Powers Long Forgotten 1 107 66.36% 29.21 57.01% -0.816 -0.1803 -0.646
Rituals of Terror 3 40 64.1% 34.38 67.5% -0.862 -0.761 -0.373
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 35 62.86% 37.49 68.57% 0.0 1.0093 0.105
Second Wave 0 696 46.46% 28.13 74.71% -0.013 0.0533 -0.993
The Great River 3 39 51.28% 27.77 35.9% -1.024 0.1938 -0.791
Varied Terrains 2 17 41.18% 29.88 70.59% -0.406 0.2175 0.619
Ward the Shores 2 70 63.77% 24.5 37.14% -0.728 0.356 -0.269

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9706 47.0% 31.03 74.52% 0.468 0.5225 0.425
1 Thematic 484 52.8% 32.17 60.12% -1.36 -0.8824 -0.382
2 Archipelago 17 35.29% 46.47 94.12% 0.263 0.3667 0.644
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2995 49.86% 31.04 72.69% -0.136 -0.0545 0.464
2 Coastline 481 54.58% 32.04 56.76% 0.325 0.1714 -0.609
2 Fragment 65 53.13% 29.63 81.54% 0.157 -0.0918 -0.359
2 Heart 71 53.52% 24.75 66.2% 0.56 0.2731 0.129
2 Opposite Shores 613 35.62% 31.6 82.71% 0.525 0.5484 -0.176
2 Thematic 197 56.12% 33.13 64.47% 0.09 0.4938 0.384
2 Top to Top 89 57.3% 31.24 65.17% -0.0 -0.1662 -0.465
3 Archipelago 16 31.25% 29.25 68.75% -0.788 -2.3372 0.0
3 Coastline 13 30.77% 33.0 69.23% -0.141 -0.655 -0.066
3 Other 56 41.07% 30.46 80.36% -0.133 0.4081 -0.407
3 Round (Default) 1613 47.6% 34.09 75.64% 0.303 0.1872 0.225
3 Sunrise 8 37.5% 28.63 75.0% -0.239 0.0413 0.0
3 Thematic 61 57.38% 35.05 70.49% 0.081 0.1615 0.368
4 Archipelago 9 44.44% 23.44 66.67% 0.0 -0.6745 -0.256
4 Coastline 8 37.5% 25.13 37.5% 0.0 0.2312 -0.08
4 Leaf 11 63.64% 30.27 81.82% 0.0 -0.3433 0.0
4 Other 50 52.0% 31.18 78.0% -0.48 -1.5642 -0.151
4 Thematic 169 38.46% 41.74 72.78% -0.193 -0.4555 -0.324
4 Trapezoid (Default) 903 40.09% 32.38 76.85% 0.035 -0.0479 0.47
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.9161 0.0
5 Other 60 39.29% 24.87 71.67% -0.325 -0.6098 0.11
5 Thematic 7 28.57% 32.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.0937 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1512 0.0
6 Other 33 24.24% 25.18 93.94% 0.199 -0.0341 -0.261
6 Star 11 72.73% 25.45 54.55% -0.341 -0.3533 0.318
6 Thematic 50 28.0% 28.68 76.0% 0.26 0.6804 -0.554
6 Two Centers (Default) 94 26.09% 31.88 81.91% 0.212 0.3157 0.661
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0189 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6126 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 598 31.7 52.68% -0.942 -0.6997 0.062
Aid From Lesser Spirits 539 32.0 54.17% 0.191 0.1139 0.14
All Things Weaken 664 29.55 52.71% -0.207 0.1855 -0.123
Attenuated Essence 18 24.94 50.0% 0.074 0.1809 -0.558
Back Against the Wall 461 30.68 51.63% -0.004 0.0537 -0.44
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 30 27.93 46.67% -0.015 0.1869 -0.77
Burn Brightest Before the End 15 18.8 46.67% -0.788 -0.578 -0.753
Disintegrating Ecosystem 574 27.83 49.13% -0.801 -0.377 -0.864
Downward Spiral 618 30.17 59.55% 1.154 1.3891 -0.089
Erosion of Will 572 30.62 54.72% 0.063 0.3721 -0.042
Intensifying Exploitation 20 23.85 50.0% 0.031 0.3183 -0.719
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 219 31.74 77.63% 0.114 -0.3794 -0.088
Memory Fades to Dust 654 30.63 58.26% 0.153 0.4889 -0.054
Power Corrodes the Spirit 665 29.41 54.44% -0.042 0.178 0.098
Promising Farmlands 534 29.74 51.69% -0.797 -0.3438 -0.099
Shattered Fragments of Power 14 22.07 42.86% -0.525 -0.4735 0.119
Slow Dissolution of Will 14 24.43 71.43% -0.038 0.3609 0.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 157 34.94 87.26% -0.126 -0.8369 0.53
The Border of Life and Death 3 38.0 100.0% 0.645 0.3095 0.0
Thriving Communities 626 29.22 52.56% 0.195 0.5581 -0.152
Thriving Crops 11 32.64 54.55% 0.257 0.0596 -0.203
Unnatural Proliferation 657 31.4 57.08% 0.386 0.6009 0.34
Untended Land Crumbles 648 29.66 56.64% 0.139 0.4204 0.307

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3823 46.31% 31.27 73.61% 0.087 0.8268 -0.296
B 3807 48.88% 31.14 72.84% -0.166 0.5596 -0.546
C 4534 44.72% 32.64 75.85% -0.213 0.3695 0.121
D 3631 44.94% 31.45 74.94% 0.376 1.087 0.009
E 3761 46.03% 32.29 74.53% 0.288 0.8531 0.095
F 3259 45.13% 31.26 75.58% -0.195 0.4757 -0.282
G 2949 46.71% 31.22 73.45% -0.136 0.5153 -0.121
H 2900 46.52% 31.51 75.31% 0.237 0.8074 -0.179
East 661 47.58% 35.91 67.32% -0.336 0.2028 0.22
Northeast 401 45.64% 36.16 66.33% 0.179 0.814 0.296
Northwest 314 44.9% 36.05 65.29% -1.383 -0.5734 0.281
Southeast 223 41.89% 34.39 74.89% 0.304 1.0102 1.797
Southwest 220 52.27% 28.25 59.55% -0.515 0.4749 -0.562
West 594 48.82% 33.47 63.97% 0.628 1.5317 -0.686

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 245 0.0% 20.48 79.59% -0.634 0.1427 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 88 55.56% 16.9 65.91% -1.543 -1.164 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 532 13.3% 36.24 91.73% 0.095 -0.523 -0.425
Start of Game Growth 702 16.92% 37.4 91.17% 1.467 1.1188 0.952
Unlimited Undo 1546 43.76% 31.63 76.0% -1.216 -1.2223 0.08
Using Tokens but Not Events 2162 26.1% 27.34 88.34% 0.009 -0.0016 0.435

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 578 100.0% 33.25 100.0% 0.141 -0.007 0.478
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 522 100.0% 29.37 100.0% -0.809 -0.6781 -0.546
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 400 100.0% 30.46 100.0% 0.862 0.717 0.386
Downpour Drenches the World 56 100.0% 28.25 100.0% 0.122 0.3014 -0.515
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 52 100.0% 25.31 100.0% 0.458 -0.307 0.731
Eyes Watch From the Trees 524 100.0% 32.52 100.0% -0.027 -0.6154 -0.316
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 417 100.0% 30.72 100.0% 0.193 -0.3041 0.006
Finder of Paths Unseen 18 100.0% 21.39 100.0% 0.365 1.0295 0.0
Fractured Days Split the Sky 367 100.0% 36.2 100.0% 0.4 0.9856 0.581
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 336 100.0% 34.24 100.0% -0.993 -1.0877 0.226
Heart of the Wildfire 311 100.0% 29.67 100.0% -0.35 -0.109 -0.826
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 727 100.0% 35.69 100.0% -0.03 -0.4721 -0.01
Lightning's Swift Strike 189 479.52% 27.49 261.38% -0.301 -0.1184 -0.533
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 51 50.0% 35.06 74.51% 0.413 -0.0741 0.483
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 861 43.23% 37.18 79.67% 0.529 0.3612 0.992
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 503 41.41% 33.78 76.74% -0.126 -0.2397 0.848
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 607 100.0% 31.82 100.0% -0.037 -0.1688 -0.071
Many Minds Move as One 309 100.0% 31.02 100.0% 0.255 0.0335 0.608
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 513 100.0% 34.02 100.0% -0.336 -0.3786 0.337
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 396 100.0% 30.6 100.0% 1.565 1.3872 0.07
River Surges in Sunlight 339 203.11% 36.35 152.21% 1.301 1.3714 -0.061
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 599 43.17% 30.26 74.12% -0.279 0.0312 -0.644
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 54 38.46% 27.37 59.26% -0.131 -0.2448 -0.436
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 342 100.0% 35.8 100.0% 0.596 0.3582 0.173
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 360 102.5% 35.31 102.22% -0.283 -0.4731 0.4
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 24 62.5% 23.29 66.67% 0.547 0.1658 -0.326
Shifting Memory of Ages 186 100.0% 28.09 100.0% -0.374 -0.0204 -0.661
Shroud of Silent Mist 321 100.0% 28.09 100.0% -0.715 -0.4651 0.286
Starlight Seeks its Form 144 100.0% 32.62 100.0% 0.24 -0.0214 1.159
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 463 100.0% 33.5 100.0% -0.369 -0.8459 -0.061
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 362 100.0% 34.19 100.0% -0.245 -0.1817 0.844
Thunderspeaker 399 102.76% 32.11 102.51% -0.422 -0.4564 0.053
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 15 26.67% 18.33 33.33% -1.222 -1.2616 -0.1
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 360 100.0% 31.14 100.0% -0.089 0.0045 0.017
Vital Strength of the Earth 212 205.48% 26.4 140.57% -0.044 0.4802 -1.236
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 29 28.57% 30.93 75.86% -0.464 -0.2035 -0.382
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 356 39.71% 27.54 77.81% -0.023 0.7527 -0.664
Volcano Looming High 333 100.0% 30.05 100.0% -0.239 -0.2822 -1.124

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 70.81%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.78%
Favors Called Due 88.02%
Mantle of Dread 88.18%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1246 20.4 5.54%
II 4762 31.01 48.24%
III 7553 34.76 86.14%
IV 4346 38.07 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6399
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2196
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4295
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 308
Lose: Invader deck ran out 58
Lose: Adversary condition 1480
Win: Sacrifice victory 63
Lose: Scenario condition 199
Win: Scenario condition 181
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2557
Lose: Spirit destroyed 102

Difficulty

Score Model: 0.88 Win Model: -0.239

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.089 Win Model: 0.107
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 10233 47.29% 31.07 73.79%
2 4527 49.01% 31.28 72.03%
3 1756 47.42% 33.93 75.57%
4 1157 40.4% 33.55 75.89%
5 45 33.33% 22.62 73.33%
6 189 28.34% 29.48 80.95%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)