Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 51 25.49% 29.51 82.35% 0.314 0.2752 0.139
Blitz 0 804 46.98% 32.24 69.03% -0.181 0.3776 -1.423
Dahan Insurrection 4 1152 23.54% 59.62 82.73% 0.528 0.6114 0.561
Despicable Theft 2 432 40.97% 34.82 81.25% -0.192 0.3757 -0.398
Elemental Invocation 1 607 50.58% 33.57 72.49% -0.418 0.1609 -1.345
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5706 18.36% 50.97 80.93% -0.246 -0.0565 0.216
Powers Long Forgotten 1 239 65.69% 29.68 61.09% -0.748 -0.2337 -0.531
Rituals of Terror 3 203 52.27% 37.0 73.4% -0.247 -0.491 -0.672
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 143 70.63% 36.5 70.63% -0.668 -0.4113 0.518
Second Wave 0 2628 44.42% 30.15 79.11% -0.474 0.0832 -0.595
The Great River 3 1013 62.48% 32.35 63.28% -0.452 1.2772 -1.775
Varied Terrains 2 88 48.86% 31.95 77.27% 0.276 0.984 -0.945
Ward the Shores 2 283 25.09% 33.07 73.5% -0.678 0.1273 -1.732

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 58732 51.16% 38.61 74.1% -0.133 0.4953 0.481
1 Thematic 2169 43.75% 35.83 73.58% 0.049 1.1173 -0.357
2 Archipelago 85 31.76% 37.59 88.24% 0.358 1.5085 -0.513
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 13152 52.61% 35.92 74.1% -0.129 0.3589 0.072
2 Coastline 2590 46.91% 34.97 77.18% -0.091 0.0338 0.183
2 Fragment 428 59.02% 39.64 75.0% 0.564 0.786 1.098
2 Heart 218 56.94% 34.4 71.1% 0.556 1.0374 0.306
2 Opposite Shores 4048 40.83% 34.47 79.55% -0.188 0.2985 -0.161
2 Thematic 1093 48.48% 35.32 69.81% -0.867 0.0184 -0.075
2 Top to Top 514 48.24% 37.17 72.96% -0.652 -0.4637 -0.09
3 Archipelago 84 26.19% 47.96 95.24% 0.737 0.7837 0.748
3 Coastline 191 61.05% 36.95 73.3% 0.343 0.2754 0.597
3 Other 464 32.61% 32.24 90.3% 0.846 0.0263 0.83
3 Round (Default) 8884 42.83% 37.43 78.22% 0.021 0.2549 0.035
3 Sunrise 28 53.57% 35.61 82.14% 0.586 0.3618 0.658
3 Thematic 346 52.03% 37.18 71.39% -0.344 0.1289 -0.094
4 Archipelago 61 26.67% 40.16 83.61% -0.659 -0.4803 -0.027
4 Coastline 98 36.84% 35.32 86.73% 0.08 -0.4788 0.086
4 Leaf 29 58.62% 38.97 75.86% 0.149 0.2753 -1.148
4 Other 318 33.96% 34.01 89.62% 0.269 -0.3019 1.024
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1315 31.2% 51.48 80.3% 0.054 0.2523 -0.654
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5317 36.02% 36.37 80.18% -0.446 -0.1907 -0.317
5 Archipelago 11 63.64% 41.91 81.82% 0.34 0.1393 0.0
5 Coastline 8 12.5% 36.63 87.5% 0.038 -0.6311 0.14
5 Other 325 32.04% 38.59 83.08% 0.093 -0.6499 0.304
5 Thematic 45 26.67% 50.07 86.67% -0.249 -0.8664 -0.301
6 Archipelago 33 15.15% 41.91 90.91% 0.134 0.4313 -0.224
6 Coastline 5 60.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7286 0.0
6 Other 219 25.46% 32.55 76.26% -0.428 -0.7436 -0.95
6 Star 125 24.0% 33.38 71.2% -0.847 0.155 -1.112
6 Thematic 514 27.54% 44.53 79.18% -0.352 -0.2766 -0.818
6 Two Centers (Default) 616 22.75% 40.15 83.77% -0.014 0.2374 -0.794
7 Archipelago 3 0.0% 37.67 100.0% 0.011 0.1235 0.0
7 Other 11 10.0% 38.45 100.0% 0.1 -0.1314 1.081

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3426 36.0 55.52% -1.891 0.0847 -1.512
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3047 37.18 58.45% -1.594 0.1477 -1.257
All Things Weaken 3823 33.44 50.2% -2.399 -0.33 -1.822
Back Against the Wall 2844 36.01 55.94% -1.957 -0.0396 -1.413
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3261 32.41 51.92% -1.931 0.1506 -1.729
Downward Spiral 3805 34.59 59.0% -1.604 0.2762 -1.473
Erosion of Will 3528 34.69 51.25% -2.053 0.0345 -1.729
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1503 40.49 83.37% -0.61 -0.0932 -0.618
Memory Fades to Dust 3903 34.43 55.34% -1.644 0.4335 -1.584
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3872 33.83 55.01% -1.839 0.0612 -1.666
Promising Farmlands 3266 33.55 51.99% -1.308 0.725 -1.756
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 963 42.74 88.27% 0.592 1.0578 0.0
Thriving Communities 3812 32.83 52.49% -2.002 0.0448 -1.744
Unnatural Proliferation 4055 34.95 53.14% -1.718 0.2114 -1.655
Untended Land Crumbles 3860 33.35 53.78% -1.901 0.0982 -1.66

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 21965 45.93% 36.81 76.42% 0.115 0.8606 -0.012
B 24584 47.22% 37.75 76.24% 0.417 1.1124 0.152
C 21986 45.22% 36.54 77.26% 0.256 0.7418 -0.132
D 18753 45.24% 35.48 76.47% -0.146 0.5664 -0.25
E 25402 46.57% 39.94 76.54% 0.2 0.7616 0.266
F 17735 44.64% 36.8 76.98% 0.177 0.8471 -0.11
G 14868 46.0% 35.84 76.02% 0.14 0.7416 -0.234
H 15660 44.95% 37.13 77.47% 0.253 0.916 -0.053
East 4138 39.34% 42.82 75.93% -0.531 0.0721 -0.19
Northeast 2453 37.31% 44.19 76.36% -0.583 0.0833 -0.12
Northwest 2081 37.36% 44.05 75.78% -0.239 0.2871 -0.18
Southeast 1833 36.06% 43.13 76.65% -0.559 0.175 -0.257
Southwest 1941 36.52% 41.1 77.28% -0.093 0.8007 0.075
West 4073 39.17% 41.7 75.18% 0.297 1.0658 -0.366

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 624 0.0% 30.33 88.94% -1.765 0.4097 0.327
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 51.72% 24.74 82.86% 0.0 0.2352 -0.363
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2323 13.69% 48.48 93.11% 2.186 1.0028 -0.363
Start of Game Growth 4652 19.17% 51.18 90.11% 0.555 0.1236 1.146
Unlimited Undo 9272 37.53% 40.98 84.62% 0.207 -0.2748 0.759
Using Tokens but Not Events 10475 32.08% 35.4 85.16% 0.298 0.4483 -0.385

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 4678 100.0% 37.3 100.0% 0.436 0.3387 0.31
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1094 100.0% 32.8 100.0% -0.432 -0.3521 -0.365
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1815 100.0% 33.54 100.0% -0.215 -0.4118 0.021
Downpour Drenches the World 527 100.0% 39.87 100.0% -0.117 0.1985 0.4
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2827 100.0% 37.02 100.0% -0.597 -1.1064 0.11
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2556 100.0% 37.64 100.0% -0.352 -0.8871 -0.458
Finder of Paths Unseen 423 100.0% 38.81 100.0% 0.487 0.8108 0.83
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1506 100.0% 44.25 100.0% 0.338 0.2812 0.746
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1376 100.0% 36.69 100.0% -0.141 -0.2368 0.3
Heart of the Wildfire 1647 100.0% 33.84 100.0% 0.165 0.4835 -0.36
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7616 100.0% 39.95 100.0% 0.015 -0.5257 0.136
Lightning's Swift Strike 1242 218.68% 33.97 138.0% -0.438 -0.0702 -0.478
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 199 40.91% 43.9 73.87% 0.403 -0.3842 -0.006
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 747 37.69% 37.78 81.79% 0.024 -0.493 0.686
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1453 37.32% 44.73 80.45% 0.614 0.0811 0.96
Many Minds Move as One 3220 100.0% 37.46 100.0% 0.219 -0.4185 0.545
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6543 100.0% 36.62 100.0% -0.576 -0.7278 0.122
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1701 100.0% 34.55 100.0% -0.308 -0.3229 -0.346
River Surges in Sunlight 2226 135.99% 38.05 115.54% 0.322 0.1997 0.162
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1182 42.98% 36.51 74.53% 0.629 1.0083 -0.507
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 234 42.49% 42.31 80.77% 0.673 0.3012 0.382
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3115 100.0% 41.69 100.0% -0.052 -0.1892 -0.061
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 308 304.1% 31.88 190.91% -0.899 -0.4425 -1.006
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 76 37.33% 42.66 84.21% 0.32 0.4627 0.481
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 66 45.31% 40.2 80.3% 0.533 0.6929 -0.249
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 575 48.69% 32.42 73.91% -0.761 -0.7027 -0.391
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 487 43.89% 33.21 78.44% 0.153 0.1619 -0.301
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3859 100.0% 41.39 100.0% 0.343 0.1406 0.287
Shifting Memory of Ages 1306 100.0% 35.03 100.0% -0.642 -0.3949 -0.007
Shroud of Silent Mist 1234 100.0% 31.53 100.0% 0.221 0.3906 -0.045
Starlight Seeks its Form 1452 100.0% 38.7 100.0% -0.141 -0.2114 0.01
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3913 100.0% 38.88 100.0% -0.119 -0.3943 0.156
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2209 100.0% 39.34 100.0% 0.031 0.1298 0.75
Thunderspeaker 2350 100.0% 37.81 100.0% 0.3 0.2976 -0.087
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1863 100.0% 32.99 100.0% -0.235 -0.5393 -0.221
Vital Strength of the Earth 742 145.49% 30.33 123.32% 0.044 0.8892 -0.972
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 126 45.24% 37.05 65.87% 0.2 0.7447 -0.857
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 485 44.42% 32.73 73.2% 0.216 1.385 -0.582
Volcano Looming High 3011 100.0% 34.8 100.0% -0.63 -0.6492 -0.06

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 80.77%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.89%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.32%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.92%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9085 22.67 17.71%
II 45883 31.11 69.71%
III 37139 34.68 89.94%
IV 9981 37.94 99.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1609
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32919
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31174
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9887
Lose: Invader deck ran out 596
Lose: Adversary condition 7180
Win: Sacrifice victory 199
Lose: Scenario condition 997
Win: Scenario condition 1161
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15913
Lose: Spirit destroyed 453

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.176 Win Model: -0.292

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.024 Win Model: 0.117
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 61081 50.95% 38.5 74.03%
2 22189 49.51% 35.7 75.48%
3 9913 42.86% 37.15 78.39%
4 7156 34.65% 39.14 81.09%
5 239 24.78% 36.4 82.43%
6 1510 24.68% 40.01 80.4%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)