Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 466 47.2% 32.51 -2.559 70.6% -0.666 -0.0971
Dahan Insurrection 4 538 27.32% 61.45 11.563 82.71% 0.039 0.437
Despicable Theft 2 226 39.82% 34.05 -0.283 80.97% -0.575 -0.3166
Elemental Invocation 1 404 52.23% 34.37 -1.463 72.52% -0.448 0.0164
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3426 18.48% 51.62 5.438 83.98% 0.036 0.4022
Powers Long Forgotten 1 159 66.04% 29.4 -2.795 62.89% -1.068 -0.6228
Rituals of Terror 3 139 54.24% 36.89 0.605 74.1% -1.007 -0.3627
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 94 73.4% 36.2 1.433 71.28% -0.492 0.153
Second Wave 0 1267 45.64% 30.2 -2.921 77.82% -0.822 -0.3941
The Great River 3 782 61.41% 32.61 -1.397 63.94% -1.632 -0.1606
Ward the Shores 2 114 35.09% 31.89 -2.621 63.16% -2.04 -1.0063

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 35139 50.41% 39.28 0.713 75.39% -0.101 0.0824
1 Thematic 1171 47.87% 35.9 -1.069 70.62% -0.594 -0.2204
2 Archipelago 22 27.27% 37.41 0.54 95.45% 0.514 0.7298
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7528 53.44% 35.85 -0.633 73.37% -0.306 -0.2459
2 Coastline 1540 47.42% 34.49 -1.146 76.62% -0.209 -0.1934
2 Fragment 257 61.87% 41.48 1.153 73.54% -0.059 0.2074
2 Heart 100 51.0% 32.96 -1.459 77.0% -0.01 0.1434
2 Opposite Shores 2218 38.96% 33.2 -1.921 81.79% -0.212 -0.1126
2 Thematic 585 45.96% 35.58 -1.071 70.77% -0.761 -0.7945
2 Top to Top 264 41.67% 38.93 0.129 75.0% -0.542 -0.5608
3 Archipelago 16 18.75% 64.69 11.386 87.5% -0.098 0.9589
3 Coastline 130 63.57% 39.26 2.235 74.62% 0.523 0.321
3 Other 241 39.75% 34.35 -0.945 90.04% 0.635 0.8218
3 Round (Default) 4633 43.03% 36.71 -0.349 78.33% -0.176 -0.2446
3 Sunrise 12 50.0% 37.42 -0.633 66.67% -0.553 -0.8205
3 Thematic 168 57.83% 37.59 0.05 68.45% -0.517 -0.9148
4 Archipelago 11 54.55% 46.64 4.523 63.64% -0.119 0.3208
4 Coastline 59 45.61% 38.93 2.018 84.75% 0.597 0.6499
4 Leaf 12 58.33% 44.83 4.055 83.33% 0.543 0.5187
4 Other 205 34.63% 35.82 -0.613 89.76% 0.399 0.2988
4 Thematic 913 25.55% 54.08 4.655 83.13% -0.18 -1.2597
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3302 37.23% 37.23 -0.571 79.53% -0.374 -0.4563
5 Other 66 38.46% 42.73 2.498 93.94% 1.113 0.5038
5 Thematic 22 18.18% 57.82 6.249 95.45% 0.501 -2.3792
6 Other 1 0.0% 57.0 7.53 100.0% 0.011 -0.1426

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1987 37.12 -1.546 58.58% -1.875 0.1984
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1764 37.26 -1.234 58.9% -1.89 0.0293
All Things Weaken 2260 33.61 -3.303 50.8% -2.323 -0.152
Back Against the Wall 1639 36.48 -1.614 58.02% -1.952 0.1394
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1835 32.66 -3.761 52.86% -2.169 0.057
Downward Spiral 2140 34.79 -2.456 59.53% -1.853 0.1699
Erosion of Will 2078 34.96 -2.735 52.55% -2.177 0.0324
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 885 40.91 0.758 83.39% -0.672 0.0141
Memory Fades to Dust 2208 34.53 -2.808 55.89% -2.046 0.1728
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2186 34.06 -3.002 56.18% -2.071 -0.0485
Promising Farmlands 1905 33.39 -3.419 52.18% -2.166 0.0475
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 540 42.46 1.345 87.04% -0.397 0.0134
Thriving Communities 2215 32.81 -3.558 53.36% -2.176 -0.0811
Unnatural Proliferation 2355 35.25 -2.389 53.8% -2.143 -0.0568
Untended Land Crumbles 2188 33.81 -3.106 54.94% -2.12 -0.0131

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7715 48.72% 37.71 -0.217 76.18% 0.164 -0.6189
B 8970 51.18% 38.71 0.271 75.37% 0.237 -0.643
C 7167 48.57% 36.2 -0.859 75.95% 0.081 -1.0308
D 5680 48.79% 34.92 -1.308 74.95% -0.092 -0.9656
E 10297 47.99% 42.41 1.84 77.19% 0.383 -0.6049
F 5929 47.19% 37.18 -0.433 76.08% 0.059 -0.8779
G 4698 49.5% 35.92 -0.955 74.84% -0.006 -0.9334
H 5296 47.89% 38.0 -0.043 77.06% 0.118 -0.8191
East 508 40.36% 45.57 2.174 77.56% 0.063 -0.6095
Northeast 551 42.7% 41.39 1.105 74.23% -0.106 -0.7298
Northwest 460 36.03% 44.75 1.617 75.87% -0.193 -0.8854
Southeast 336 45.35% 39.51 0.238 72.02% -0.215 -0.9444
Southwest 473 43.07% 39.01 -0.229 74.63% -0.052 -0.3477
West 541 37.85% 40.58 0.231 73.57% -0.382 -0.8036

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 385 0.0% 30.28 -4.156 90.91% -1.329 0.7281
Not Using Events or Tokens 17 50.0% 23.65 -4.664 88.24% -0.004 0.2112
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1458 14.57% 50.15 2.824 93.69% 0.468 -0.2202
Start of Game Growth 2678 19.14% 51.64 4.803 91.15% 0.704 0.2349
Unlimited Undo 5399 37.61% 42.66 1.616 85.74% 0.544 0.1241
Using Tokens but Not Events 5854 32.8% 35.21 -1.634 85.96% 0.009 -0.0433

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 2451 35.91% 37.73 0.042 83.15% 0.36 0.4759
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 614 51.23% 33.05 -1.671 74.92% -0.178 0.0311
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 962 41.88% 34.24 -1.206 78.17% -0.024 -0.1274
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1370 35.49% 38.4 0.418 83.8% 0.337 -0.0536
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1316 38.18% 37.49 -0.275 78.19% -0.014 -0.3031
Fractured Days Split the Sky 966 31.57% 45.52 2.458 82.4% 0.129 0.4811
Heart of the Wildfire 964 58.94% 33.37 -2.002 68.36% -0.337 -0.0075
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4232 42.5% 39.75 0.482 76.09% 0.048 -0.2803
Lightning's Swift Strike 1858 43.54% 37.65 0.198 77.56% 0.077 0.3156
Many Minds Move as One 1791 41.03% 38.4 0.476 83.03% 0.327 -0.2019
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3555 40.14% 36.18 -0.442 81.04% 0.089 -0.1236
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 882 44.65% 34.16 -1.328 76.42% -0.112 -0.0865
River Surges in Sunlight 1774 43.22% 37.38 -0.223 77.51% -0.107 0.0251
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1699 35.79% 43.68 1.373 78.28% -0.13 -0.0122
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 865 47.39% 33.07 -1.944 75.84% -0.265 0.1543
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1992 38.02% 41.65 0.829 82.68% 0.176 0.0811
Shifting Memory of Ages 267 44.36% 36.72 -0.492 80.9% 0.304 0.3837
Shroud of Silent Mist 620 49.43% 32.91 -2.25 72.9% -0.461 -0.4385
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2312 42.82% 39.1 -0.055 77.12% 0.12 0.0748
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1293 42.63% 39.71 0.907 81.44% 0.347 0.5242
Thunderspeaker 1195 42.27% 37.64 -0.352 77.41% -0.194 -0.1596
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1087 62.45% 33.58 -1.844 67.25% -0.237 -0.2528
Vital Strength of the Earth 687 41.2% 31.74 -2.459 76.71% -0.26 0.5954
Volcano Looming High 1707 49.44% 35.35 -1.054 74.46% -0.049 -0.0687

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 81.88%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.81%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.21%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.95%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5014 22.35 17.95%
II 26538 30.84 70.55%
III 21347 34.35 90.01%
IV 5722 37.52 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 900
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 18970
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18377
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5667
Lose: Invader deck ran out 322
Lose: Adversary condition 4082
Win: Sacrifice victory 108
Lose: Scenario condition 536
Win: Scenario condition 517
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8873
Lose: Spirit destroyed 269

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.589 Win Model: -0.246

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.106 Win Model: 0.005
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 36357 50.36% 39.16 75.22%
2 12586 49.57% 35.44 75.39%
3 5161 43.82% 36.68 78.42%
4 4517 34.5% 40.78 80.94%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)