Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 430 46.5% 32.85 -2.517 69.77% -0.698 -0.1248
Dahan Insurrection 4 478 28.03% 60.71 11.369 82.85% 0.123 0.5224
Despicable Theft 2 189 38.1% 33.88 -0.465 79.37% -0.816 -0.5338
Elemental Invocation 1 360 53.06% 34.46 -1.487 72.22% -0.394 0.0451
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3067 18.87% 51.9 5.578 83.89% 0.081 0.4468
Powers Long Forgotten 1 143 65.03% 29.97 -2.539 65.03% -0.949 -0.5077
Rituals of Terror 3 118 53.61% 37.31 0.528 75.42% -0.985 -0.3408
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 84 70.24% 36.48 1.543 72.62% -0.436 0.206
Second Wave 0 1129 46.46% 30.02 -2.998 77.06% -0.861 -0.4331
The Great River 3 736 61.72% 32.74 -1.394 64.13% -1.646 -0.186
Ward the Shores 2 103 33.01% 30.73 -2.973 64.08% -2.18 -1.143

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 31905 50.49% 39.41 0.755 75.38% -0.517 -0.1841
1 Thematic 1067 49.09% 36.31 -0.984 69.45% -1.065 -0.5669
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6495 53.95% 35.59 -0.723 72.78% -0.477 -0.2765
2 Coastline 1314 48.51% 34.65 -0.981 76.48% -0.32 -0.1648
2 Fragment 233 62.23% 41.78 1.392 75.54% -0.052 0.3435
2 Heart 84 51.19% 31.11 -2.182 76.19% -0.249 0.0734
2 Opposite Shores 1977 38.88% 33.21 -1.9 81.89% -0.34 -0.1112
2 Thematic 521 45.86% 35.89 -0.973 71.4% -0.864 -0.8033
2 Top to Top 226 41.59% 38.43 -0.112 73.01% -0.791 -0.6586
3 Coastline 128 64.57% 39.26 2.286 74.22% 0.664 0.6261
3 Other 220 38.99% 34.17 -1.039 90.0% 0.574 0.9935
3 Round (Default) 4115 42.82% 36.6 -0.344 78.35% -0.037 0.0188
3 Sunrise 11 45.45% 39.36 0.315 72.73% -0.256 -0.4495
3 Thematic 143 59.44% 36.71 -0.323 65.03% -0.571 -0.8999
4 Coastline 57 47.27% 39.05 2.216 84.21% 0.982 1.1074
4 Leaf 10 60.0% 41.6 2.9 80.0% 0.561 0.6073
4 Other 182 31.32% 34.75 -1.038 89.01% 0.509 0.6212
4 Thematic 792 25.54% 53.74 4.465 81.94% 0.085 -0.9391
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2926 37.3% 37.26 -0.537 79.43% 0.053 0.0874
5 Other 53 40.38% 44.45 3.04 94.34% 1.398 1.1427
5 Thematic 16 12.5% 55.69 5.523 100.0% 0.846 -2.0977

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1789 37.07 -1.599 58.3% -1.868 0.2052
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1569 37.11 -1.305 58.7% -1.881 0.038
All Things Weaken 2050 33.7 -3.276 51.12% -2.303 -0.1445
Back Against the Wall 1460 36.56 -1.609 58.08% -1.939 0.155
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1656 32.83 -3.72 53.2% -2.141 0.0831
Downward Spiral 1922 34.76 -2.496 59.26% -1.852 0.1692
Erosion of Will 1867 35.08 -2.698 52.6% -2.165 0.044
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 800 40.84 0.724 82.88% -0.689 0.0037
Memory Fades to Dust 1971 34.75 -2.746 56.01% -2.029 0.1892
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1942 34.28 -2.905 56.49% -2.039 -0.0179
Promising Farmlands 1719 33.43 -3.444 51.83% -2.166 0.0483
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 481 42.77 1.47 86.69% -0.403 0.0083
Thriving Communities 2012 32.91 -3.527 53.18% -2.172 -0.0792
Unnatural Proliferation 2135 35.18 -2.473 53.16% -2.156 -0.0667
Untended Land Crumbles 1953 33.57 -3.256 54.58% -2.14 -0.0343

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 6932 48.27% 37.73 -0.221 76.18% 0.162 -0.9498
B 7924 51.47% 38.67 0.239 75.44% 0.242 -0.9664
C 6415 48.89% 36.31 -0.832 76.15% 0.098 -1.341
D 5090 49.02% 34.97 -1.3 74.79% -0.094 -1.2962
E 9326 48.43% 42.58 1.897 77.02% 0.386 -0.926
F 5294 47.44% 37.3 -0.42 75.75% 0.042 -1.2242
G 4222 49.31% 35.82 -1.04 74.49% -0.042 -1.299
H 4729 48.06% 38.05 -0.041 76.78% 0.117 -1.1484
East 454 40.53% 45.64 2.122 77.31% 0.093 -0.8875
Northeast 485 43.98% 41.27 0.996 72.58% -0.127 -1.0585
Northwest 410 37.01% 44.84 1.62 74.88% -0.172 -1.1716
Southeast 307 45.07% 39.44 0.208 71.66% -0.223 -1.2488
Southwest 414 44.63% 38.84 -0.341 73.43% -0.044 -0.6635
West 479 38.27% 40.16 0.063 72.23% -0.395 -1.1196

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 346 0.0% 29.96 -4.361 90.75% -1.386 0.6687
Not Using Events or Tokens 16 46.15% 24.25 -4.393 87.5% -0.091 0.1272
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1337 14.48% 50.44 2.888 93.87% 0.503 -0.1908
Start of Game Growth 2446 19.3% 51.78 4.854 91.33% 0.74 0.2769
Unlimited Undo 4836 37.49% 43.02 1.725 86.17% 0.606 0.1852
Using Tokens but Not Events 5245 33.56% 35.23 -1.649 85.57% 0.002 -0.0504

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 2200 36.59% 37.44 -0.025 82.68% 0.36 0.4931
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 535 51.32% 33.07 -1.65 75.51% -0.172 0.0561
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 843 42.29% 33.94 -1.367 77.58% -0.059 -0.1453
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1204 35.88% 37.95 0.354 83.31% 0.323 -0.0497
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1162 38.69% 37.28 -0.334 78.49% 0.038 -0.2223
Fractured Days Split the Sky 870 31.14% 45.11 2.328 82.53% 0.122 0.4904
Heart of the Wildfire 848 59.22% 33.2 -2.067 67.57% -0.351 -0.0005
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3717 42.63% 39.08 0.241 75.25% 0.001 -0.3026
Lightning's Swift Strike 1623 43.07% 37.57 0.186 77.26% 0.056 0.3152
Many Minds Move as One 1604 41.04% 38.28 0.469 82.73% 0.309 -0.2059
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3188 39.99% 36.23 -0.4 81.09% 0.105 -0.0901
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 783 44.56% 34.2 -1.246 76.76% -0.062 -0.016
River Surges in Sunlight 1565 43.55% 36.81 -0.467 76.87% -0.155 -0.0026
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1516 35.69% 43.76 1.366 78.03% -0.139 0.0052
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 789 49.05% 32.91 -1.972 75.41% -0.237 0.2037
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1724 38.08% 41.4 0.774 82.48% 0.171 0.0991
Shroud of Silent Mist 491 49.9% 33.31 -1.992 73.52% -0.373 -0.3929
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2100 42.6% 39.41 0.12 77.67% 0.171 0.1505
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1126 43.16% 39.84 1.001 80.46% 0.315 0.5177
Thunderspeaker 1071 43.15% 37.61 -0.289 76.84% -0.191 -0.1396
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 970 62.5% 33.49 -1.865 66.91% -0.232 -0.224
Vital Strength of the Earth 613 41.45% 31.88 -2.443 76.02% -0.281 0.589
Volcano Looming High 1522 49.47% 35.15 -1.129 74.44% -0.04 -0.0637

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 82.05%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.67%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.17%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.96%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4497 22.34 17.32%
II 23830 30.81 70.53%
III 19036 34.31 89.89%
IV 5118 37.5 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 779
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 16887
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16506
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5071
Lose: Invader deck ran out 292
Lose: Adversary condition 3669
Win: Sacrifice victory 95
Lose: Scenario condition 486
Win: Scenario condition 462
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7983
Lose: Spirit destroyed 251

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.575 Win Model: -0.248

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.128 Win Model: -0.277
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 32988 50.46% 39.31 75.2%
2 10908 50.06% 35.24 74.98%
3 4599 43.64% 36.52 78.32%
4 3986 34.67% 40.62 80.58%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)