Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 379 48.81% 32.38 -2.742 67.55% -0.764 -0.1826
Dahan Insurrection 4 397 28.46% 59.62 10.883 80.86% -0.055 0.349
Despicable Theft 2 121 33.06% 34.31 -0.364 84.3% -0.69 -0.3402
Elemental Invocation 1 287 55.05% 33.99 -1.731 71.43% -0.404 -0.0314
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2662 19.3% 51.56 5.534 83.55% 0.082 0.447
Powers Long Forgotten 1 114 64.04% 30.37 -2.388 64.91% -0.943 -0.5019
Rituals of Terror 3 104 57.65% 37.85 0.759 75.0% -0.933 -0.2987
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 72 70.83% 37.01 1.561 72.22% -0.449 0.1919
Second Wave 0 886 48.38% 30.08 -3.014 75.73% -0.892 -0.468
The Great River 3 646 61.18% 33.17 -1.252 65.17% -1.57 -0.1491
Ward the Shores 2 98 30.61% 31.19 -2.853 64.29% -2.267 -1.2259

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 27654 50.48% 39.58 0.759 75.49% -0.397 -0.0697
1 Thematic 920 50.06% 36.66 -0.876 68.26% -0.96 -0.4859
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5410 54.47% 35.84 -0.632 72.74% -0.424 -0.2271
2 Coastline 1091 48.29% 34.2 -1.182 76.54% -0.308 -0.1576
2 Fragment 179 58.66% 41.78 1.278 76.54% -0.059 0.3451
2 Heart 60 53.33% 29.12 -3.281 71.67% -0.333 -0.0213
2 Opposite Shores 1670 38.86% 33.18 -1.922 82.04% -0.279 -0.056
2 Thematic 442 46.14% 36.39 -0.877 70.81% -0.826 -0.7978
2 Top to Top 186 44.09% 38.29 -0.13 70.97% -0.749 -0.6084
3 Coastline 110 65.14% 38.13 1.743 71.82% 0.506 0.4592
3 Other 181 40.78% 35.22 -0.503 90.06% 0.666 1.1049
3 Round (Default) 3365 43.47% 36.44 -0.382 78.01% -0.06 -0.0017
3 Sunrise 9 44.44% 40.67 0.639 77.78% -0.084 -0.2811
3 Thematic 127 58.27% 37.65 0.068 66.93% -0.399 -0.7596
4 Coastline 54 50.0% 38.98 2.149 83.33% 0.845 1.0156
4 Leaf 8 50.0% 46.25 4.38 100.0% 0.747 0.8101
4 Other 149 30.87% 35.0 -1.059 89.26% 0.449 0.5801
4 Thematic 660 26.4% 52.4 4.133 81.21% 0.032 -1.0276
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2455 37.66% 36.99 -0.578 78.45% -0.071 -0.0329
5 Other 48 38.3% 43.48 2.733 93.75% 1.181 0.982
5 Thematic 11 9.09% 58.18 6.239 100.0% 0.605 -2.3512

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1540 37.01 -1.678 58.18% -1.885 0.1861
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1361 37.42 -1.204 59.07% -1.852 0.0696
All Things Weaken 1780 33.98 -3.239 50.9% -2.304 -0.1504
Back Against the Wall 1244 36.52 -1.667 58.44% -1.937 0.1593
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1442 32.75 -3.818 52.91% -2.169 0.0571
Downward Spiral 1642 34.8 -2.554 58.71% -1.868 0.1505
Erosion of Will 1586 35.19 -2.704 52.9% -2.154 0.0565
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 695 40.74 0.663 83.02% -0.679 0.0144
Memory Fades to Dust 1668 35.1 -2.684 55.94% -2.025 0.1906
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1668 34.61 -2.846 56.89% -2.019 -0.0019
Promising Farmlands 1441 33.45 -3.481 51.77% -2.166 0.0478
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 413 42.88 1.45 86.2% -0.448 -0.0177
Thriving Communities 1725 32.97 -3.562 52.75% -2.174 -0.0782
Unnatural Proliferation 1794 35.28 -2.492 53.46% -2.143 -0.0565
Untended Land Crumbles 1706 33.79 -3.228 55.16% -2.114 -0.0183

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5977 48.69% 37.75 -0.281 75.87% 0.143 -0.958
B 6694 51.6% 38.62 0.171 75.49% 0.227 -0.969
C 5497 48.86% 36.6 -0.762 76.28% 0.1 -1.3283
D 4298 48.95% 34.97 -1.338 75.13% -0.082 -1.2724
E 8020 48.77% 42.86 1.961 76.95% 0.384 -0.9149
F 4501 47.45% 37.62 -0.347 75.69% 0.036 -1.2181
G 3615 49.61% 36.06 -0.978 74.44% -0.045 -1.2869
H 4023 48.15% 37.9 -0.148 76.44% 0.092 -1.1647
East 391 40.83% 46.15 2.176 76.21% 0.071 -0.8886
Northeast 409 45.32% 40.82 0.779 70.9% -0.166 -1.0671
Northwest 340 38.76% 43.79 1.493 75.29% -0.084 -1.0584
Southeast 260 44.36% 39.68 0.281 71.15% -0.215 -1.2194
Southwest 342 46.45% 38.61 -0.334 72.51% 0.005 -0.5951
West 428 38.86% 39.91 0.052 71.26% -0.428 -1.1274

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 295 0.0% 29.53 -4.426 90.17% -1.343 0.706
Not Using Events or Tokens 8 40.0% 30.25 -0.904 100.0% 0.464 0.6843
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1106 15.45% 50.48 2.93 93.94% 0.548 -0.1564
Start of Game Growth 2046 20.61% 51.74 4.943 91.06% 0.742 0.2907
Unlimited Undo 4047 37.84% 42.77 1.561 86.16% 0.584 0.1675
Using Tokens but Not Events 4539 34.57% 35.19 -1.662 84.86% -0.011 -0.0624

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1858 36.68% 36.94 -0.192 82.62% 0.361 0.4967
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 442 50.68% 32.96 -1.699 75.34% -0.173 0.0579
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 720 42.72% 33.83 -1.392 77.08% -0.058 -0.1445
Eyes Watch From the Trees 992 35.23% 37.76 0.298 82.66% 0.283 -0.0871
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 961 38.58% 36.98 -0.464 77.63% -0.015 -0.2701
Fractured Days Split the Sky 745 32.17% 44.45 2.114 81.61% 0.095 0.4561
Heart of the Wildfire 714 59.13% 33.26 -1.961 67.93% -0.284 0.0649
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2999 42.82% 38.88 0.205 75.36% 0.024 -0.2777
Lightning's Swift Strike 1341 43.68% 37.96 0.344 76.36% 0.069 0.3303
Many Minds Move as One 1347 43.57% 38.37 0.515 81.81% 0.322 -0.2053
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2704 39.51% 36.44 -0.339 81.03% 0.106 -0.0906
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 673 44.26% 33.79 -1.405 76.52% -0.041 0.0033
River Surges in Sunlight 1338 44.64% 36.49 -0.592 75.78% -0.164 -0.0111
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1288 36.18% 43.56 1.352 77.33% -0.141 0.0034
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 657 50.53% 32.89 -2.019 73.97% -0.248 0.1945
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1430 39.5% 40.98 0.707 82.1% 0.194 0.1223
Shroud of Silent Mist 302 51.67% 32.71 -2.109 72.52% -0.334 -0.3567
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1763 43.01% 38.98 0.052 77.42% 0.193 0.1722
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 945 44.36% 39.53 0.914 80.11% 0.336 0.5447
Thunderspeaker 886 43.08% 37.48 -0.267 76.41% -0.189 -0.1354
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 825 63.79% 33.35 -1.92 66.18% -0.225 -0.2111
Vital Strength of the Earth 503 41.97% 31.38 -2.635 74.75% -0.348 0.52
Volcano Looming High 1239 49.64% 35.05 -1.156 73.93% -0.023 -0.0515

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 82.31%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.73%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.22%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.94%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3829 22.33 17.18%
II 20435 30.75 70.55%
III 16229 34.25 89.81%
IV 4302 37.47 99.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 658
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14380
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14174
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4259
Lose: Invader deck ran out 250
Lose: Adversary condition 3115
Win: Sacrifice victory 81
Lose: Scenario condition 434
Win: Scenario condition 384
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6850
Lose: Spirit destroyed 210

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.585 Win Model: -0.245

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.149 Win Model: -0.22
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 28589 50.47% 39.49 75.26%
2 9087 50.28% 35.33 74.92%
3 3772 44.4% 36.41 77.97%
4 3347 35.12% 40.15 79.77%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)