Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 302 48.01% 32.19 -2.826 68.54% -0.798 -0.2215
Dahan Insurrection 4 336 30.06% 58.44 10.326 80.06% -0.126 0.2746
Despicable Theft 2 40 35.0% 33.63 -0.798 87.5% -0.371 0.0582
Elemental Invocation 1 202 48.02% 34.56 -1.055 82.18% -0.038 0.3435
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2263 19.75% 51.78 5.59 83.87% 0.134 0.4995
Powers Long Forgotten 1 92 68.48% 30.63 -2.407 64.13% -0.868 -0.427
Rituals of Terror 3 86 56.72% 37.84 0.599 74.42% -0.948 -0.32
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 57 73.68% 36.42 1.13 66.67% -0.578 0.0716
Second Wave 0 652 50.41% 30.34 -2.978 75.92% -0.852 -0.4362
The Great River 3 599 60.8% 33.4 -1.284 65.11% -1.55 -0.0791
Ward the Shores 2 87 29.89% 32.05 -2.606 67.82% -2.102 -1.0658

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 24137 50.6% 39.96 0.734 75.41% -0.4 -0.0413
1 Thematic 769 51.59% 36.29 -1.127 67.23% -0.967 -0.4636
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4475 53.8% 36.44 -0.483 74.17% -0.41 -0.2146
2 Coastline 884 49.26% 34.48 -1.153 75.9% -0.325 -0.1826
2 Fragment 138 57.97% 41.32 0.883 76.81% -0.154 0.2686
2 Heart 45 44.44% 30.64 -2.829 82.22% 0.083 0.3759
2 Opposite Shores 1438 38.77% 33.37 -1.913 82.06% -0.327 -0.1026
2 Thematic 360 46.37% 37.07 -0.545 71.94% -0.789 -0.7446
2 Top to Top 160 45.0% 39.34 0.192 72.5% -0.679 -0.5446
3 Coastline 100 64.65% 37.69 1.509 70.0% 0.368 0.3345
3 Other 141 45.32% 36.26 -0.095 87.94% 0.507 0.9226
3 Round (Default) 2846 43.02% 36.52 -0.46 78.25% -0.114 -0.0748
3 Sunrise 9 44.44% 40.67 0.494 77.78% -0.131 -0.3544
3 Thematic 94 60.64% 38.59 0.74 69.15% -0.207 -0.5638
4 Coastline 48 54.35% 38.67 2.244 83.33% 0.916 1.0745
4 Leaf 8 50.0% 46.25 4.435 100.0% 0.776 0.8039
4 Other 135 30.37% 35.97 -0.841 91.85% 0.688 0.8007
4 Thematic 520 27.94% 51.3 3.867 80.58% -0.021 -1.1074
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2069 36.68% 37.19 -0.617 78.49% -0.201 -0.2179
5 Other 43 37.21% 43.14 2.486 95.35% 1.093 0.8749
5 Thematic 5 0.0% 65.8 8.385 100.0% 0.375 -2.4532

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1322 37.41 -1.692 58.25% -1.91 0.1604
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1140 37.78 -1.221 59.74% -1.852 0.0664
All Things Weaken 1523 34.08 -3.364 50.69% -2.338 -0.1832
Back Against the Wall 1045 36.75 -1.722 58.85% -1.955 0.1407
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1255 33.14 -3.856 52.83% -2.204 0.0199
Downward Spiral 1413 35.08 -2.599 58.74% -1.9 0.1168
Erosion of Will 1371 35.07 -2.956 52.3% -2.242 -0.0328
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 597 41.3 0.744 84.59% -0.607 0.0976
Memory Fades to Dust 1434 35.27 -2.796 55.65% -2.059 0.1561
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1438 34.82 -2.915 57.02% -2.043 -0.0228
Promising Farmlands 1221 33.92 -3.46 51.76% -2.194 0.0188
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 351 43.02 1.349 86.04% -0.501 -0.0656
Thriving Communities 1498 33.45 -3.515 53.74% -2.182 -0.084
Unnatural Proliferation 1543 35.7 -2.476 53.99% -2.128 -0.0507
Untended Land Crumbles 1484 34.05 -3.243 54.99% -2.142 -0.0433

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5173 48.73% 38.08 -0.326 75.84% 0.154 -0.9359
B 5770 51.62% 38.97 0.181 75.82% 0.256 -0.9289
C 4731 48.9% 36.89 -0.791 76.2% 0.113 -1.3022
D 3636 48.99% 35.08 -1.441 74.67% -0.098 -1.2751
E 6987 48.61% 43.47 2.044 77.23% 0.411 -0.8656
F 3865 46.94% 38.18 -0.239 76.38% 0.08 -1.163
G 3083 49.61% 36.5 -0.966 74.31% -0.038 -1.269
H 3427 48.21% 38.07 -0.197 76.89% 0.124 -1.1165
East 304 40.53% 45.68 2.047 76.64% -0.025 -0.9757
Northeast 343 47.65% 40.09 0.598 70.26% -0.198 -1.0877
Northwest 280 41.01% 43.4 1.396 74.29% -0.087 -1.0523
Southeast 209 46.12% 39.71 0.247 70.33% -0.233 -1.2345
Southwest 271 49.63% 38.37 -0.425 72.69% 0.09 -0.518
West 351 39.19% 39.34 -0.124 70.66% -0.511 -1.1965

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 251 0.0% 29.37 -4.584 89.64% -1.42 0.6236
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 40.0% 27.43 -2.058 100.0% 0.414 0.633
Skip Initial Invader Actions 930 16.1% 50.43 2.918 94.09% 0.606 -0.0984
Start of Game Growth 1754 21.8% 51.8 4.95 90.82% 0.697 0.2427
Unlimited Undo 3369 38.3% 42.94 1.468 86.11% 0.552 0.1401
Using Tokens but Not Events 3842 34.82% 35.14 -1.794 84.59% -0.012 -0.0597

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1551 35.76% 37.4 -0.051 84.27% 0.486 0.6323
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 374 48.66% 32.82 -1.787 76.2% -0.168 0.0683
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 586 42.69% 33.73 -1.476 76.79% -0.06 -0.1456
Eyes Watch From the Trees 834 35.11% 38.0 0.301 82.01% 0.278 -0.0874
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 801 38.94% 36.88 -0.691 77.78% 0.025 -0.2193
Fractured Days Split the Sky 635 33.65% 43.93 1.995 81.26% 0.154 0.5
Heart of the Wildfire 600 61.54% 33.12 -2.102 66.33% -0.323 0.027
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2480 41.27% 39.32 0.314 77.5% 0.106 -0.1941
Lightning's Swift Strike 1142 44.84% 37.94 0.241 75.31% 0.087 0.3554
Many Minds Move as One 1118 43.19% 38.5 0.447 82.29% 0.337 -0.183
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2367 38.67% 36.68 -0.314 81.79% 0.198 0.0039
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 563 44.92% 34.3 -1.261 75.84% -0.013 0.0356
River Surges in Sunlight 1147 45.25% 36.47 -0.686 74.98% -0.183 -0.0212
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1120 36.07% 43.47 1.349 78.04% -0.094 0.0558
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 565 50.97% 32.56 -2.282 72.92% -0.31 0.1391
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1211 39.42% 40.92 0.631 82.41% 0.241 0.1739
Shroud of Silent Mist 81 50.62% 30.67 -3.245 66.67% -0.912 -0.9562
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1479 41.53% 39.27 0.061 78.57% 0.223 0.2042
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 798 44.92% 39.65 0.857 80.08% 0.38 0.5962
Thunderspeaker 729 42.5% 36.84 -0.554 76.27% -0.228 -0.1705
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 705 65.15% 32.83 -2.184 65.11% -0.262 -0.2421
Vital Strength of the Earth 419 41.06% 31.68 -2.6 76.13% -0.255 0.6157
Volcano Looming High 976 50.21% 34.93 -1.179 73.77% 0.034 -0.0283

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 82.65%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.65%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.31%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.97%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3175 22.34 17.54%
II 17629 30.75 70.45%
III 13980 34.26 89.82%
IV 3646 37.47 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 557
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12384
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 12215
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3609
Lose: Invader deck ran out 210
Lose: Adversary condition 2622
Win: Sacrifice victory 73
Lose: Scenario condition 366
Win: Scenario condition 328
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5888
Lose: Spirit destroyed 178

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.619 Win Model: -0.243

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.161 Win Model: -0.222
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 24918 50.64% 39.85 75.17%
2 7540 49.87% 35.79 75.9%
3 3175 44.23% 36.56 78.14%
4 2797 34.85% 39.94 79.8%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)