Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 478 47.27% 32.26 -2.704 69.87% -0.716 -0.1499
Dahan Insurrection 4 596 25.67% 61.17 11.56 83.39% 0.016 0.4165
Despicable Theft 2 246 41.46% 34.19 -0.288 80.49% -0.512 -0.2382
Elemental Invocation 1 425 52.94% 34.0 -1.642 70.35% -0.512 -0.0093
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3579 18.23% 51.48 5.382 83.91% 0.012 0.3767
Powers Long Forgotten 1 167 65.87% 29.76 -2.558 63.47% -0.998 -0.5514
Rituals of Terror 3 144 54.47% 36.86 0.634 73.61% -1.013 -0.3679
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 98 74.49% 35.58 1.174 69.39% -0.506 0.1404
Second Wave 0 1325 45.4% 30.26 -2.896 77.89% -0.815 -0.3848
The Great River 3 803 61.17% 32.54 -1.394 63.89% -1.617 -0.1436
Ward the Shores 2 120 35.83% 31.78 -2.649 62.5% -2.081 -1.0488

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 36790 50.5% 39.2 0.69 75.34% 0.436 0.5225
1 Thematic 1239 47.12% 35.82 -1.047 70.86% -0.042 0.2349
2 Archipelago 32 31.25% 41.28 1.835 93.75% 0.921 0.9277
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7932 53.28% 35.97 -0.577 73.47% -0.094 -0.0687
2 Coastline 1622 47.37% 34.55 -1.124 76.45% -0.001 -0.0258
2 Fragment 264 61.22% 41.11 0.973 73.86% 0.131 0.3535
2 Heart 105 52.38% 33.1 -1.372 77.14% 0.215 0.3153
2 Opposite Shores 2376 39.62% 33.03 -1.994 81.02% -0.037 0.0279
2 Thematic 615 46.64% 35.47 -1.083 69.76% -0.545 -0.6122
2 Top to Top 282 42.55% 39.15 0.261 75.53% -0.266 -0.3347
3 Archipelago 23 17.39% 64.7 11.246 91.3% 0.217 1.0215
3 Coastline 138 63.5% 38.33 1.768 71.74% 0.218 0.067
3 Other 250 39.68% 34.31 -0.973 90.0% 0.684 0.857
3 Round (Default) 4987 42.99% 36.83 -0.319 78.02% -0.323 -0.3617
3 Sunrise 12 50.0% 37.42 -0.666 66.67% -0.61 -0.8705
3 Thematic 177 57.71% 37.87 0.114 67.8% -0.635 -1.0009
4 Archipelago 13 53.85% 44.08 3.551 69.23% -0.223 0.3245
4 Coastline 63 44.26% 39.68 2.219 85.71% 0.233 0.3523
4 Leaf 12 58.33% 44.83 4.047 83.33% 0.304 0.3756
4 Other 215 35.35% 36.4 -0.372 89.77% 0.125 0.0557
4 Thematic 968 26.27% 54.03 4.644 82.95% -0.621 -1.6177
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3514 37.33% 37.18 -0.616 79.2% -0.868 -0.8595
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 51.5 8.283 50.0% -0.167 0.993
5 Other 77 40.0% 43.34 2.723 92.21% 0.544 0.0828
5 Thematic 22 18.18% 57.82 6.266 95.45% 0.263 -2.1292
6 Archipelago 1 100.0% 34.0 1.254 100.0% 0.045 0.4108
6 Other 1 0.0% 57.0 7.501 100.0% 0.007 -0.1707

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2078 37.12 -1.534 58.47% -1.881 0.1889
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1857 37.17 -1.288 58.64% -1.909 0.0034
All Things Weaken 2369 33.56 -3.319 50.74% -2.333 -0.1734
Back Against the Wall 1732 36.36 -1.696 57.39% -1.993 0.0943
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1948 32.75 -3.714 53.03% -2.168 0.0537
Downward Spiral 2262 34.66 -2.517 59.11% -1.881 0.1405
Erosion of Will 2173 35.0 -2.713 52.65% -2.181 0.0266
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 941 40.96 0.808 83.32% -0.679 -0.0
Memory Fades to Dust 2335 34.44 -2.845 55.55% -2.066 0.1484
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2301 34.03 -3.017 56.15% -2.087 -0.0655
Promising Farmlands 2000 33.41 -3.392 52.2% -2.17 0.038
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 570 42.4 1.349 87.37% -0.381 0.03
Thriving Communities 2320 32.76 -3.569 53.15% -2.189 -0.1013
Unnatural Proliferation 2482 35.25 -2.376 53.63% -2.154 -0.0728
Untended Land Crumbles 2331 33.64 -3.186 54.7% -2.144 -0.0417

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8103 48.79% 37.6 -0.243 75.93% 0.155 -0.5327
B 9509 51.17% 38.77 0.321 75.38% 0.25 -0.5342
C 7548 48.71% 36.18 -0.859 75.64% 0.076 -0.9367
D 5961 48.89% 34.89 -1.312 74.9% -0.083 -0.86
E 10860 48.06% 42.3 1.815 77.13% 0.389 -0.5056
F 6216 47.26% 37.15 -0.433 76.16% 0.075 -0.7659
G 4960 49.22% 35.96 -0.937 74.98% 0.001 -0.8313
H 5550 47.83% 37.92 -0.074 76.9% 0.112 -0.7273
East 540 41.12% 45.1 2.067 76.67% 0.038 -0.5377
Northeast 589 43.0% 41.5 1.127 73.34% -0.129 -0.6535
Northwest 479 36.06% 44.77 1.643 75.99% -0.187 -0.7817
Southeast 350 44.93% 39.62 0.338 72.57% -0.171 -0.7997
Southwest 500 43.43% 38.55 -0.394 74.0% -0.095 -0.2941
West 573 36.94% 41.02 0.413 74.35% -0.366 -0.6928

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 412 0.0% 30.0 -4.201 89.81% -1.433 0.6201
Not Using Events or Tokens 18 53.33% 22.89 -4.961 83.33% -0.266 -0.0508
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1520 14.74% 49.71 2.719 93.42% 0.434 -0.2525
Start of Game Growth 2814 19.5% 51.4 4.758 90.8% 0.691 0.2216
Unlimited Undo 5654 37.67% 42.32 1.517 85.5% 0.522 0.0985
Using Tokens but Not Events 6175 32.66% 35.15 -1.643 85.7% -0.009 -0.0598

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 2588 36.1% 37.8 0.059 82.77% 0.36 0.4643
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 639 50.71% 33.1 -1.672 75.43% -0.138 0.0597
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1014 41.45% 34.3 -1.162 78.21% -0.008 -0.1212
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1468 35.01% 38.22 0.33 83.86% 0.353 -0.0515
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1419 38.11% 37.31 -0.35 78.01% -0.016 -0.3214
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1001 32.16% 45.45 2.428 82.02% 0.132 0.4802
Heart of the Wildfire 1019 59.01% 33.54 -1.904 68.69% -0.26 0.0584
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4468 42.55% 39.71 0.464 76.01% 0.06 -0.2822
Lightning's Swift Strike 1999 42.65% 38.1 0.347 77.79% 0.095 0.3209
Many Minds Move as One 1897 41.34% 38.44 0.427 82.45% 0.312 -0.2213
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3781 40.2% 36.28 -0.412 80.69% 0.101 -0.1232
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 926 44.52% 34.47 -1.22 76.46% -0.091 -0.0766
River Surges in Sunlight 1907 43.67% 37.29 -0.283 76.25% -0.154 -0.0328
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1804 36.25% 43.75 1.458 78.49% -0.049 0.0533
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 925 47.56% 33.2 -1.894 75.57% -0.224 0.181
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2145 38.38% 42.04 0.991 82.66% 0.234 0.122
Shifting Memory of Ages 407 44.83% 36.78 -0.57 79.85% 0.198 0.322
Shroud of Silent Mist 667 49.55% 32.83 -2.299 72.71% -0.458 -0.4012
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2405 42.7% 39.13 -0.035 77.21% 0.154 0.0941
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1366 42.76% 39.81 0.913 81.7% 0.384 0.5446
Thunderspeaker 1272 41.99% 37.54 -0.413 76.97% -0.211 -0.1875
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1156 62.62% 33.49 -1.883 66.44% -0.253 -0.281
Vital Strength of the Earth 712 40.59% 31.72 -2.45 76.83% -0.237 0.6067
Volcano Looming High 1792 49.72% 35.37 -1.032 74.44% -0.022 -0.0117

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 81.82%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.85%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.18%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.95%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5288 22.37 17.93%
II 27925 30.88 70.43%
III 22520 34.39 89.94%
IV 6005 37.55 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 948
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20006
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19270
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5944
Lose: Invader deck ran out 350
Lose: Adversary condition 4313
Win: Sacrifice victory 112
Lose: Scenario condition 566
Win: Scenario condition 572
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9378
Lose: Spirit destroyed 279

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.589 Win Model: -0.244

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.096 Win Model: 0.326
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 38107 50.44% 39.07 75.14%
2 13282 49.53% 35.51 75.39%
3 5552 43.77% 36.78 78.01%
4 4797 34.72% 40.78 80.8%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)