Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 51 25.49% 29.51 82.35% 0.314 0.2752 0.139
Blitz 0 804 46.98% 32.24 69.03% -0.181 0.3776 -1.423
Dahan Insurrection 4 1152 23.54% 59.62 82.73% 0.528 0.6114 0.561
Despicable Theft 2 432 40.97% 34.82 81.25% -0.192 0.3757 -0.398
Elemental Invocation 1 607 50.58% 33.57 72.49% -0.418 0.1609 -1.345
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5706 18.36% 50.97 80.93% -0.246 -0.0565 0.216
Powers Long Forgotten 1 239 65.69% 29.68 61.09% -0.748 -0.2337 -0.531
Rituals of Terror 3 203 52.27% 37.0 73.4% -0.247 -0.491 -0.672
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 143 70.63% 36.5 70.63% -0.668 -0.4113 0.518
Second Wave 0 2628 44.42% 30.15 79.11% -0.474 0.0832 -0.595
The Great River 3 1013 62.48% 32.35 63.28% -0.452 1.2772 -1.775
Varied Terrains 2 88 48.86% 31.95 77.27% 0.276 0.984 -0.945
Ward the Shores 2 283 25.09% 33.07 73.5% -0.678 0.1273 -1.732

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3426 36.0 55.52% -1.891 0.0847 -1.512
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3047 37.18 58.45% -1.594 0.1477 -1.257
All Things Weaken 3823 33.44 50.2% -2.399 -0.33 -1.822
Back Against the Wall 2844 36.01 55.94% -1.957 -0.0396 -1.413
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3261 32.41 51.92% -1.931 0.1506 -1.729
Downward Spiral 3805 34.59 59.0% -1.604 0.2762 -1.473
Erosion of Will 3528 34.69 51.25% -2.053 0.0345 -1.729
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1503 40.49 83.37% -0.61 -0.0932 -0.618
Memory Fades to Dust 3903 34.43 55.34% -1.644 0.4335 -1.584
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3872 33.83 55.01% -1.839 0.0612 -1.666
Promising Farmlands 3266 33.55 51.99% -1.308 0.725 -1.756
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 963 42.74 88.27% 0.592 1.0578 0.0
Thriving Communities 3812 32.83 52.49% -2.002 0.0448 -1.744
Unnatural Proliferation 4055 34.95 53.14% -1.718 0.2114 -1.655
Untended Land Crumbles 3860 33.35 53.78% -1.901 0.0982 -1.66

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 21965 45.93% 36.81 76.42% 0.115 0.8606 -0.012
B 24584 47.22% 37.75 76.24% 0.417 1.1124 0.152
C 21986 45.22% 36.54 77.26% 0.256 0.7418 -0.132
D 18753 45.24% 35.48 76.47% -0.146 0.5664 -0.25
E 25402 46.57% 39.94 76.54% 0.2 0.7616 0.266
F 17735 44.64% 36.8 76.98% 0.177 0.8471 -0.11
G 14868 46.0% 35.84 76.02% 0.14 0.7416 -0.234
H 15660 44.95% 37.13 77.47% 0.253 0.916 -0.053
East 4138 39.34% 42.82 75.93% -0.531 0.0721 -0.19
Northeast 2453 37.31% 44.19 76.36% -0.583 0.0833 -0.12
Northwest 2081 37.36% 44.05 75.78% -0.239 0.2871 -0.18
Southeast 1833 36.06% 43.13 76.65% -0.559 0.175 -0.257
Southwest 1941 36.52% 41.1 77.28% -0.093 0.8007 0.075
West 4073 39.17% 41.7 75.18% 0.297 1.0658 -0.366

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 624 0.0% 30.33 88.94% -1.765 0.4097 0.327
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 51.72% 24.74 82.86% 0.0 0.2352 -0.363
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2323 13.69% 48.48 93.11% 2.186 1.0028 -0.363
Start of Game Growth 4652 19.17% 51.18 90.11% 0.555 0.1236 1.146
Unlimited Undo 9272 37.53% 40.98 84.62% 0.207 -0.2748 0.759
Using Tokens but Not Events 10475 32.08% 35.4 85.16% 0.298 0.4483 -0.385

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 80.77%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.89%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.32%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.92%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9085 22.67 17.71%
II 45883 31.11 69.71%
III 37139 34.68 89.94%
IV 9981 37.94 99.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1609
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32919
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31174
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9887
Lose: Invader deck ran out 596
Lose: Adversary condition 7180
Win: Sacrifice victory 199
Lose: Scenario condition 997
Win: Scenario condition 1161
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15913
Lose: Spirit destroyed 453

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.024 Win Model: 0.117
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 61081 50.95% 38.5 74.03%
2 22189 49.51% 35.7 75.48%
3 9913 42.86% 37.15 78.39%
4 7156 34.65% 39.14 81.09%
5 239 24.78% 36.4 82.43%
6 1510 24.68% 40.01 80.4%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)