Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 238 46.64% 31.53 -3.083 68.91% -0.861 -0.2882
Dahan Insurrection 4 270 29.26% 58.59 10.216 79.26% -0.263 0.1374
Elemental Invocation 1 137 49.64% 33.32 -1.606 78.83% -0.274 0.191
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1862 20.09% 52.2 5.653 84.85% 0.171 0.5463
Powers Long Forgotten 1 76 65.79% 32.14 -1.829 67.11% -0.725 -0.2777
Rituals of Terror 3 70 55.56% 38.73 0.925 75.71% -0.893 -0.2712
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 43 74.42% 36.67 1.077 65.12% -0.582 0.0423
Second Wave 0 485 52.26% 29.68 -3.252 75.67% -0.914 -0.4949
The Great River 3 522 61.35% 33.3 -1.474 63.79% -1.654 -0.1692
Ward the Shores 2 77 31.17% 31.48 -2.815 66.23% -2.162 -1.1313

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 20543 50.39% 40.17 0.719 75.69% -0.352 0.0023
1 Thematic 602 48.98% 35.65 -1.329 70.93% -0.909 -0.4122
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3583 52.6% 36.81 -0.406 75.55% -0.339 -0.1501
2 Coastline 730 48.49% 34.94 -1.011 77.53% -0.193 -0.0581
2 Fragment 115 58.26% 42.93 1.386 76.52% -0.064 0.3614
2 Heart 35 42.86% 31.83 -2.359 82.86% 0.068 0.3583
2 Opposite Shores 1211 37.47% 33.2 -1.987 82.99% -0.266 -0.0398
2 Thematic 302 45.51% 36.74 -0.595 72.85% -0.751 -0.7062
2 Top to Top 128 44.53% 38.92 -0.125 71.88% -0.708 -0.5911
3 Coastline 91 64.44% 37.38 1.386 68.13% 0.393 0.3556
3 Other 118 47.41% 35.87 -0.386 86.44% 0.431 0.8327
3 Round (Default) 2333 43.79% 36.46 -0.584 78.31% -0.098 -0.0668
3 Sunrise 9 44.44% 40.67 0.371 77.78% -0.128 -0.3813
3 Thematic 68 52.94% 39.76 0.883 70.59% -0.331 -0.6701
4 Coastline 43 58.54% 38.12 1.99 81.4% 0.846 0.968
4 Leaf 4 25.0% 44.0 2.801 100.0% 0.522 0.6018
4 Other 113 32.74% 36.39 -0.774 92.04% 0.724 0.8044
4 Thematic 376 27.47% 51.98 4.196 82.71% 0.184 -0.8942
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1644 34.23% 37.9 -0.417 80.54% -0.096 -0.1287
5 Other 36 33.33% 41.64 2.177 94.44% 0.9 0.6826
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 59.0 8.396 100.0% 0.231 -2.5359

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1094 37.74 -1.627 59.23% -1.895 0.1733
Aid From Lesser Spirits 941 38.64 -0.912 61.85% -1.787 0.1292
All Things Weaken 1240 33.84 -3.533 51.05% -2.367 -0.2073
Back Against the Wall 867 36.92 -1.775 58.94% -1.989 0.1031
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1026 33.48 -3.794 54.39% -2.19 0.0314
Downward Spiral 1167 35.68 -2.457 59.13% -1.903 0.1111
Erosion of Will 1142 34.77 -3.183 51.58% -2.296 -0.0851
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 502 41.17 0.614 84.46% -0.66 0.0517
Memory Fades to Dust 1179 35.5 -2.768 56.23% -2.06 0.1556
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1191 35.0 -2.948 57.43% -2.051 -0.0312
Promising Farmlands 1013 34.26 -3.445 52.42% -2.197 0.0179
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 297 43.62 1.467 86.53% -0.488 -0.0708
Thriving Communities 1237 33.78 -3.47 54.49% -2.186 -0.0792
Unnatural Proliferation 1300 36.14 -2.393 54.69% -2.126 -0.0461
Untended Land Crumbles 1234 34.24 -3.256 55.19% -2.147 -0.0519

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 4415 48.53% 38.41 -0.287 76.29% 0.156 -0.9173
B 4822 51.06% 38.99 0.101 76.46% 0.235 -0.9289
C 3976 48.82% 36.94 -0.858 76.08% 0.077 -1.3194
D 3050 48.54% 35.29 -1.433 74.62% -0.125 -1.2835
E 5791 48.52% 43.79 2.067 77.79% 0.404 -0.8525
F 3253 46.68% 38.56 -0.21 77.04% 0.075 -1.151
G 2579 48.71% 36.87 -0.926 75.38% -0.024 -1.2369
H 2846 47.35% 38.7 -0.037 78.0% 0.16 -1.0616
East 238 37.71% 46.53 2.23 80.25% 0.055 -0.8813
Northeast 286 48.59% 39.37 0.495 71.68% -0.149 -1.0186
Northwest 207 40.0% 41.49 0.811 73.91% -0.228 -1.1729
Southeast 163 42.5% 40.45 0.615 76.07% -0.048 -1.0315
Southwest 202 46.73% 38.13 -0.529 74.26% -0.016 -0.6409
West 264 38.08% 38.32 -0.394 73.48% -0.535 -1.2003

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 216 0.0% 29.84 -4.419 90.74% -1.361 0.6776
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 25.0% 25.0 -2.674 100.0% 0.334 0.5539
Skip Initial Invader Actions 799 16.64% 50.27 2.73 94.49% 0.534 -0.1716
Start of Game Growth 1511 22.47% 51.77 5.007 91.53% 0.795 0.336
Unlimited Undo 2853 37.05% 43.09 1.384 86.89% 0.539 0.1368
Using Tokens but Not Events 3293 34.33% 35.28 -1.851 84.91% -0.019 -0.0652

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1248 32.88% 37.26 -0.22 85.5% 0.384 0.5304
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 293 48.11% 32.75 -1.964 76.11% -0.258 -0.0214
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 490 41.36% 33.88 -1.475 77.76% -0.085 -0.1709
Eyes Watch From the Trees 665 35.61% 38.29 0.326 81.65% 0.193 -0.1765
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 647 38.65% 35.97 -1.052 77.9% -0.1 -0.3327
Fractured Days Split the Sky 532 33.21% 44.27 2.116 81.77% 0.117 0.4501
Heart of the Wildfire 494 61.99% 33.44 -2.065 66.8% -0.349 -0.0017
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1924 38.69% 40.37 0.702 81.34% 0.211 -0.0871
Lightning's Swift Strike 942 43.79% 38.47 0.437 78.03% 0.196 0.4642
Many Minds Move as One 920 42.33% 38.62 0.414 82.39% 0.249 -0.2645
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2025 38.38% 36.55 -0.413 82.12% 0.123 -0.074
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 464 44.81% 34.65 -1.155 76.94% 0.012 0.0597
River Surges in Sunlight 957 44.88% 36.83 -0.636 75.13% -0.274 -0.1072
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 920 36.09% 43.91 1.385 78.91% -0.149 0.0001
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 447 51.01% 32.49 -2.335 73.6% -0.352 0.0972
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 961 39.79% 40.6 0.515 82.93% 0.192 0.1275
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1203 41.33% 39.38 0.048 79.88% 0.229 0.2099
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 669 46.26% 39.19 0.574 79.67% 0.323 0.5382
Thunderspeaker 578 42.53% 36.57 -0.706 76.47% -0.29 -0.2298
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 566 66.31% 32.94 -2.164 64.84% -0.296 -0.2597
Vital Strength of the Earth 338 39.34% 31.09 -2.894 77.51% -0.331 0.5339
Volcano Looming High 645 49.46% 34.86 -1.252 74.73% 0.041 -0.0599

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 83.02%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.59%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.24%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 99.02%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2548 22.34 18.13%
II 14777 30.71 71.16%
III 11726 34.23 89.89%
IV 3041 37.48 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 462
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10403
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10346
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3014
Lose: Invader deck ran out 182
Lose: Adversary condition 2107
Win: Sacrifice victory 58
Lose: Scenario condition 298
Win: Scenario condition 265
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4817
Lose: Spirit destroyed 140

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.672 Win Model: -0.242

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.152 Win Model: -0.179
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 21156 50.36% 40.04 75.56%
2 6134 48.67% 36.02 77.16%
3 2612 44.78% 36.5 78.14%
4 2190 33.18% 40.33 81.64%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)