Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 20.0% 28.6 86.67% 0.032 -0.1696 0.0
Blitz 0 736 47.89% 32.02 67.39% -0.121 0.136 -1.678
Dahan Insurrection 4 1052 23.22% 60.07 83.75% -0.119 0.2944 0.717
Despicable Theft 2 394 40.36% 34.95 81.22% 0.099 0.5447 -0.363
Elemental Invocation 1 565 50.44% 33.29 72.21% -0.893 -0.4069 -1.43
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5126 18.09% 50.79 81.37% -0.419 -0.1139 0.272
Powers Long Forgotten 1 214 65.89% 30.04 63.55% -0.43 -0.2479 -0.261
Rituals of Terror 3 194 53.89% 36.88 72.68% -0.388 -0.267 -0.7
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 140 71.43% 36.37 70.71% -0.391 0.0239 0.512
Second Wave 0 2276 44.35% 30.07 79.22% -0.71 -0.1443 -0.55
The Great River 3 966 62.2% 32.38 63.56% -1.243 0.1549 -1.593
Varied Terrains 2 39 43.59% 32.74 82.05% -0.376 0.1499 -0.428
Ward the Shores 2 267 26.22% 32.92 72.66% -1.786 -0.6242 -1.686

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 52631 51.26% 38.74 74.36% 0.124 1.14 0.501
1 Thematic 1891 44.9% 35.89 73.72% -0.467 0.7059 -0.324
2 Archipelago 75 33.33% 37.63 86.67% -0.37 0.6135 -0.86
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11694 52.79% 35.96 73.96% 0.003 0.7545 0.105
2 Coastline 2343 46.58% 34.87 77.29% 0.12 0.7223 0.176
2 Fragment 395 59.39% 40.01 74.43% 0.615 1.0625 1.106
2 Heart 174 52.6% 34.0 75.29% 0.28 0.8185 0.478
2 Opposite Shores 3578 41.27% 33.97 79.68% -0.148 0.8443 -0.133
2 Thematic 972 48.34% 35.4 70.06% 0.086 0.7841 -0.113
2 Top to Top 446 45.27% 37.87 75.11% -0.127 0.3829 0.018
3 Archipelago 61 27.87% 50.31 93.44% 0.163 0.3358 0.455
3 Coastline 184 60.66% 37.24 73.37% 0.308 -0.4748 0.418
3 Other 406 33.0% 32.59 90.89% 0.563 0.5272 0.602
3 Round (Default) 7854 42.71% 37.19 78.1% 0.072 0.6665 0.016
3 Sunrise 23 52.17% 35.61 78.26% -0.238 -0.2009 0.639
3 Thematic 301 53.18% 37.37 71.43% 0.375 0.3377 -0.013
4 Archipelago 48 34.04% 40.48 83.33% 0.07 -0.6415 -0.1
4 Coastline 88 39.53% 36.3 86.36% 0.104 0.2208 0.09
4 Leaf 26 61.54% 40.46 73.08% -0.857 -0.2949 -1.161
4 Other 295 33.9% 34.5 89.15% -0.126 -0.3795 1.212
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1249 30.82% 52.0 80.62% -0.611 -0.0822 -0.73
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4835 36.37% 36.45 80.08% 0.197 0.1702 -0.319
5 Archipelago 8 75.0% 44.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.5788 0.0
5 Coastline 6 0.0% 42.67 100.0% 0.256 -0.309 0.145
5 Other 258 33.47% 39.01 82.95% 0.243 0.4113 0.468
5 Thematic 41 21.95% 52.76 90.24% 0.11 -0.1664 -0.377
6 Archipelago 21 14.29% 35.19 85.71% 0.118 -0.1376 -0.708
6 Coastline 4 75.0% 26.5 100.0% 0.584 -0.0049 0.0
6 Other 156 24.52% 31.5 78.21% -0.911 -0.1014 -0.421
6 Star 89 25.84% 33.61 69.66% -0.202 0.5818 -0.543
6 Thematic 342 27.06% 40.25 80.99% -1.039 -1.3174 -0.575
6 Two Centers (Default) 445 23.3% 40.62 82.47% -0.183 -0.2769 -0.96
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0
7 Other 7 16.67% 43.86 100.0% 0.895 -0.2567 0.909

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3029 36.27 56.62% -1.902 0.001 -1.456
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2752 37.23 58.94% -1.742 -0.0124 -1.277
All Things Weaken 3434 33.52 50.99% -2.035 -0.0492 -1.827
Back Against the Wall 2553 36.13 56.99% -2.329 -0.5123 -1.352
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2885 32.26 52.27% -2.232 -0.1818 -1.735
Downward Spiral 3375 34.49 59.05% -1.65 0.343 -1.482
Erosion of Will 3190 34.73 51.79% -2.04 0.0432 -1.742
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1345 40.62 83.57% 0.047 0.4883 -0.625
Memory Fades to Dust 3483 34.44 55.27% -2.04 0.0437 -1.633
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3459 33.86 55.28% -2.003 -0.0644 -1.673
Promising Farmlands 2925 33.37 51.32% -2.07 -0.0243 -1.802
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 859 42.69 88.13% 0.087 0.512 -0.04
Thriving Communities 3414 32.74 52.84% -2.026 -0.0422 -1.762
Unnatural Proliferation 3629 34.87 52.99% -2.056 -0.0912 -1.692
Untended Land Crumbles 3458 33.4 54.02% -1.969 0.0242 -1.658

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 19358 46.18% 36.78 76.57% 0.083 0.8803 0.019
B 21772 47.42% 37.72 76.23% 0.1 0.8435 0.164
C 19487 45.68% 36.43 77.02% -0.018 0.5504 -0.147
D 16615 45.44% 35.53 76.7% -0.029 0.7666 -0.2
E 22481 46.81% 40.12 76.73% 0.27 0.9176 0.318
F 15755 44.99% 36.73 76.75% -0.038 0.6861 -0.101
G 13216 46.47% 35.82 75.83% -0.062 0.6694 -0.244
H 13948 45.26% 37.23 77.48% -0.018 0.6943 -0.051
East 3617 39.47% 42.91 76.5% -0.527 0.2415 -0.165
Northeast 2108 37.84% 44.01 76.71% -0.151 0.7088 -0.04
Northwest 1784 37.66% 43.66 75.84% -0.506 0.571 -0.077
Southeast 1544 36.4% 42.53 77.2% 0.027 0.7328 -0.264
Southwest 1626 37.54% 40.32 77.12% -0.184 0.9412 -0.008
West 3566 39.57% 41.73 75.46% -0.284 0.6702 -0.234

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 569 0.0% 30.12 89.1% -0.14 1.9896 0.051
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 51.72% 24.74 82.86% -0.332 -0.1574 -0.362
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2076 14.01% 47.81 92.97% 0.036 -0.1066 -0.582
Start of Game Growth 4090 19.16% 50.78 90.22% 1.055 0.2943 1.183
Unlimited Undo 8234 37.14% 41.12 85.11% 0.61 0.006 0.835
Using Tokens but Not Events 9174 32.13% 35.31 85.37% 0.184 0.0275 -0.343

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 4090 100.0% 37.1 100.0% 0.349 0.2337 0.263
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 952 100.0% 32.76 100.0% 0.308 0.4039 -0.422
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1593 100.0% 33.75 100.0% -0.349 -0.5104 0.0
Downpour Drenches the World 229 100.0% 37.87 100.0% 0.244 0.4968 0.746
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2482 100.0% 37.3 100.0% 0.123 -0.3149 0.273
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2212 100.0% 37.65 100.0% -0.372 -0.8598 -0.477
Finder of Paths Unseen 219 100.0% 38.75 100.0% 0.614 0.9779 1.163
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1388 100.0% 44.4 100.0% 0.307 0.3626 0.882
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1114 100.0% 36.49 100.0% -0.032 -0.0637 0.393
Heart of the Wildfire 1463 100.0% 33.39 100.0% -0.687 -0.5127 -0.385
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6740 100.0% 39.61 100.0% 0.233 -0.2231 0.121
Lightning's Swift Strike 1104 215.7% 34.05 137.41% 0.451 0.7255 -0.51
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 59 51.72% 32.8 66.1% -0.479 -1.2555 -0.253
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 689 37.66% 37.49 81.57% 0.431 -0.212 0.654
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1333 37.08% 44.19 80.05% 0.173 -0.0935 0.841
Many Minds Move as One 2854 100.0% 37.6 100.0% 0.42 -0.1829 0.565
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 5837 100.0% 36.55 100.0% 0.067 -0.1184 0.175
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1478 100.0% 34.57 100.0% -0.134 -0.1133 -0.22
River Surges in Sunlight 2023 130.94% 38.13 114.88% -0.28 -0.3143 0.187
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1043 44.69% 36.12 73.25% 0.306 0.7369 -0.452
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 95 42.11% 40.55 76.84% 0.013 -0.2879 -0.653
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2802 100.0% 42.01 100.0% -0.09 -0.1424 -0.104
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 291 294.63% 32.2 186.94% 0.032 0.4418 -1.097
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 30 44.83% 39.43 83.33% 0.853 0.8596 0.588
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 33 36.36% 42.24 78.79% 0.206 -0.1403 -0.048
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 546 48.53% 32.8 73.99% -0.432 -0.4123 -0.358
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 469 43.44% 33.37 78.89% 0.094 0.2769 -0.16
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3370 100.0% 41.29 100.0% 0.051 -0.2357 0.361
Shifting Memory of Ages 1105 100.0% 35.1 100.0% -0.182 -0.1067 0.199
Shroud of Silent Mist 1099 100.0% 31.5 100.0% -0.732 -0.4955 -0.032
Starlight Seeks its Form 1064 100.0% 38.44 100.0% -0.209 -0.3488 -0.306
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3491 100.0% 38.49 100.0% -0.083 -0.265 0.216
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1967 100.0% 39.3 100.0% 0.198 0.3832 0.758
Thunderspeaker 2034 100.0% 37.68 100.0% -0.133 -0.0685 -0.173
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1688 100.0% 33.07 100.0% -0.565 -0.6557 -0.253
Vital Strength of the Earth 676 141.65% 30.42 119.97% 0.136 0.9449 -1.021
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 43 44.19% 37.07 74.42% 0.049 0.4358 -0.74
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 460 43.79% 32.87 73.04% -0.783 0.391 -0.649
Volcano Looming High 2722 100.0% 34.89 100.0% -0.129 -0.1335 -0.058

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 81.01%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.84%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.29%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.93%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7970 22.56 17.5%
II 40892 30.98 69.8%
III 33206 34.53 90.0%
IV 8888 37.77 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29442
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 27794
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8803
Lose: Invader deck ran out 528
Lose: Adversary condition 6349
Win: Sacrifice victory 169
Lose: Scenario condition 891
Win: Scenario condition 1075
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14107
Lose: Spirit destroyed 403

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.226 Win Model: -0.273

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.083 Win Model: 0.059
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 54680 51.1% 38.63 74.27%
2 19732 49.54% 35.64 75.54%
3 8759 42.85% 36.98 78.27%
4 6558 34.9% 39.48 80.99%
5 172 24.07% 36.23 84.3%
6 1055 24.81% 38.46 80.38%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)