Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 48 25.0% 29.48 81.25% 0.208 0.7041 0.137
Blitz 0 794 46.82% 32.08 68.89% 0.027 0.4702 -1.467
Dahan Insurrection 4 1130 23.83% 59.72 82.48% -0.014 0.0829 0.558
Despicable Theft 2 425 40.47% 34.78 81.41% -0.382 0.1164 -0.4
Elemental Invocation 1 601 50.42% 33.49 72.55% -0.067 0.4785 -1.4
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5625 18.3% 50.94 81.01% -0.051 0.1804 0.224
Powers Long Forgotten 1 231 65.37% 29.57 61.9% -1.518 -1.1109 -0.32
Rituals of Terror 3 202 52.57% 36.94 73.27% -0.167 -0.403 -0.68
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 142 70.42% 36.61 71.13% 0.085 0.3111 0.529
Second Wave 0 2579 44.33% 30.18 79.06% -0.566 0.1265 -0.596
The Great River 3 1005 62.57% 32.36 63.38% -0.372 1.2094 -1.744
Varied Terrains 2 83 48.19% 31.78 75.9% -0.555 0.2315 -0.946
Ward the Shores 2 282 25.18% 33.07 73.4% -0.513 0.368 -1.739

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 57804 51.19% 38.64 74.15% -0.043 0.6195 0.542
1 Thematic 2129 43.59% 35.84 73.79% -0.068 0.9888 -0.305
2 Archipelago 84 30.95% 37.07 88.1% 0.177 0.648 -0.805
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12915 52.67% 35.93 74.07% 0.065 0.5827 0.118
2 Coastline 2561 46.97% 34.94 77.2% -0.262 -0.0611 0.233
2 Fragment 421 59.29% 39.7 74.82% 0.621 0.919 1.122
2 Heart 215 56.34% 34.11 71.16% -0.295 0.1657 0.285
2 Opposite Shores 3968 40.81% 34.4 79.64% -0.214 0.3251 -0.123
2 Thematic 1069 48.54% 35.28 69.88% -0.638 0.1439 0.004
2 Top to Top 505 47.91% 37.27 73.47% -0.178 -0.0502 -0.059
3 Archipelago 80 27.5% 48.83 95.0% 0.863 0.6449 0.777
3 Coastline 190 61.38% 37.07 73.68% 0.887 0.38 0.608
3 Other 458 32.6% 32.34 90.17% 0.009 -0.655 0.781
3 Round (Default) 8708 42.9% 37.39 78.12% 0.077 0.3816 0.071
3 Sunrise 26 50.0% 35.04 80.77% 0.34 0.7995 0.662
3 Thematic 340 52.07% 37.35 71.76% -0.139 0.069 -0.074
4 Archipelago 61 26.67% 40.16 83.61% -1.155 -1.1919 -0.021
4 Coastline 97 37.23% 35.46 86.6% 0.191 0.1542 0.088
4 Leaf 29 58.62% 38.97 75.86% 0.247 0.145 -1.148
4 Other 314 33.76% 34.05 89.49% 0.56 -0.154 1.083
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1298 30.91% 51.63 80.2% -0.13 -0.0262 -0.656
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5233 36.02% 36.39 80.28% -0.239 -0.1609 -0.298
5 Archipelago 11 63.64% 41.91 81.82% 0.367 0.2697 0.0
5 Coastline 8 12.5% 36.63 87.5% 0.033 -0.5549 0.139
5 Other 318 32.34% 38.33 83.02% -0.035 -0.5519 0.327
5 Thematic 44 25.0% 50.64 86.36% -0.437 -0.7239 -0.309
6 Archipelago 29 13.79% 39.52 89.66% 0.127 -0.0197 -0.401
6 Coastline 5 60.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.056 -0.5783 0.0
6 Other 211 25.36% 32.22 76.3% -0.462 -0.4168 -0.994
6 Star 120 25.0% 33.78 70.0% -0.869 -0.099 -1.087
6 Thematic 490 28.07% 44.2 78.78% -0.078 0.1627 -0.83
6 Two Centers (Default) 584 23.32% 40.1 83.39% 0.288 0.4797 -0.84
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Other 10 11.11% 39.0 100.0% 0.276 -0.2076 1.108

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3366 35.99 55.53% -2.253 -0.2819 -1.498
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3002 37.22 58.59% -1.75 0.0275 -1.253
All Things Weaken 3767 33.5 50.31% -2.404 -0.3552 -1.818
Back Against the Wall 2788 36.05 56.03% -2.064 -0.1253 -1.4
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3199 32.43 52.11% -2.008 0.1198 -1.723
Downward Spiral 3737 34.61 59.08% -1.707 0.2545 -1.47
Erosion of Will 3471 34.78 51.4% -2.099 -0.0169 -1.725
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1480 40.5 83.51% -0.399 0.103 -0.625
Memory Fades to Dust 3851 34.43 55.28% -1.808 0.3332 -1.597
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3805 33.84 54.88% -1.918 0.0629 -1.677
Promising Farmlands 3207 33.56 51.92% -1.525 0.4966 -1.755
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 945 42.72 88.04% -0.193 0.3041 -0.021
Thriving Communities 3756 32.81 52.53% -2.047 0.0127 -1.751
Unnatural Proliferation 4004 34.96 53.27% -1.71 0.2468 -1.659
Untended Land Crumbles 3798 33.37 53.9% -1.983 0.0506 -1.661

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 21596 46.01% 36.8 76.38% 0.151 0.8875 -0.01
B 24157 47.3% 37.73 76.19% 0.324 1.0212 0.158
C 21579 45.37% 36.54 77.23% 0.356 0.8258 -0.124
D 18397 45.31% 35.48 76.54% 0.017 0.7262 -0.237
E 24923 46.58% 39.98 76.6% 0.239 0.7837 0.272
F 17387 44.71% 36.79 76.93% 0.053 0.7144 -0.111
G 14605 46.11% 35.8 75.94% 0.014 0.6446 -0.239
H 15393 45.03% 37.17 77.47% 0.07 0.7346 -0.055
East 4048 39.18% 42.89 76.06% -0.382 0.2796 -0.154
Northeast 2398 37.33% 44.22 76.27% -0.399 0.2613 -0.09
Northwest 2033 37.45% 44.04 75.5% -0.679 -0.0689 -0.175
Southeast 1781 35.88% 43.2 76.92% -0.096 0.4355 -0.238
Southwest 1893 36.55% 41.06 77.23% 0.062 1.0307 0.082
West 3994 39.2% 41.7 75.06% 0.003 0.8088 -0.361

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 618 0.0% 30.24 89.16% -1.016 1.2127 0.228
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 51.72% 24.74 82.86% 0.0 0.2266 -0.366
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2274 13.76% 48.28 93.01% 1.252 0.2717 -0.474
Start of Game Growth 4550 19.11% 51.04 90.09% 0.613 0.1565 1.169
Unlimited Undo 9109 37.55% 40.96 84.71% 0.449 -0.1027 0.76
Using Tokens but Not Events 10303 32.11% 35.33 85.04% -0.042 0.1136 -0.402

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 4565 100.0% 37.18 100.0% 0.251 0.1757 0.321
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1075 100.0% 32.75 100.0% -0.253 -0.1741 -0.398
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1772 100.0% 33.55 100.0% -0.576 -0.8004 0.0
Downpour Drenches the World 474 100.0% 39.81 100.0% 0.135 0.3999 0.48
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2780 100.0% 37.06 100.0% -0.632 -1.1351 0.14
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2493 100.0% 37.7 100.0% -0.184 -0.7704 -0.453
Finder of Paths Unseen 396 100.0% 38.41 100.0% 0.029 0.3843 0.83
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1486 100.0% 44.08 100.0% -0.312 -0.23 0.766
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1328 100.0% 36.65 100.0% -0.443 -0.5378 0.312
Heart of the Wildfire 1618 100.0% 33.71 100.0% -0.011 0.3939 -0.39
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7478 100.0% 39.9 100.0% 0.13 -0.4734 0.147
Lightning's Swift Strike 1216 218.09% 33.93 138.16% -0.113 0.252 -0.46
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 182 40.33% 43.99 73.63% 0.36 -0.3889 0.074
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 733 38.0% 37.79 81.72% 0.177 -0.3868 0.726
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1432 37.66% 44.67 80.31% 1.043 0.5485 0.952
Many Minds Move as One 3162 100.0% 37.58 100.0% 0.473 -0.1132 0.557
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6431 100.0% 36.61 100.0% -0.225 -0.3952 0.15
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1659 100.0% 34.59 100.0% -0.275 -0.3311 -0.239
River Surges in Sunlight 2201 134.96% 38.04 115.36% 0.307 0.2325 0.166
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1152 43.49% 36.34 74.22% 0.328 0.7541 -0.514
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 217 42.4% 42.97 81.11% 0.925 0.5842 0.341
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3064 100.0% 41.67 100.0% -0.246 -0.4395 -0.072
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 305 302.55% 31.89 190.49% -0.76 -0.2855 -1.027
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 69 38.24% 41.96 84.06% 0.28 0.4598 0.321
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 62 45.0% 39.1 79.03% 0.44 0.4953 -0.454
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 572 48.6% 32.42 74.13% -0.186 -0.2088 -0.356
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 483 44.05% 33.25 78.47% 0.504 0.6194 -0.255
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3777 100.0% 41.36 100.0% 0.04 -0.1508 0.3
Shifting Memory of Ages 1264 100.0% 35.16 100.0% -0.439 -0.2242 0.039
Shroud of Silent Mist 1216 100.0% 31.43 100.0% 0.301 0.435 -0.054
Starlight Seeks its Form 1392 100.0% 38.76 100.0% -0.002 -0.1165 0.025
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3848 100.0% 38.85 100.0% -0.107 -0.3461 0.181
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2171 100.0% 39.35 100.0% 0.101 0.2315 0.768
Thunderspeaker 2302 100.0% 37.8 100.0% 0.376 0.3588 -0.068
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1825 100.0% 32.9 100.0% -0.226 -0.4419 -0.231
Vital Strength of the Earth 733 144.82% 30.38 122.92% -0.367 0.5313 -0.964
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 108 42.59% 36.37 63.89% -0.467 -0.0445 -1.025
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 481 44.38% 32.77 73.18% 0.129 1.2432 -0.563
Volcano Looming High 2969 100.0% 34.8 100.0% -0.543 -0.5635 -0.035

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 80.83%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.91%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.32%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.93%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8908 22.65 17.71%
II 45070 31.08 69.69%
III 36566 34.66 89.97%
IV 9802 37.91 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1578
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32415
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30618
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9709
Lose: Invader deck ran out 579
Lose: Adversary condition 7055
Win: Sacrifice victory 197
Lose: Scenario condition 979
Win: Scenario condition 1139
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15632
Lose: Spirit destroyed 445

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.125 Win Model: -0.276

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.015 Win Model: 0.032
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 60111 50.98% 38.54 74.08%
2 21797 49.54% 35.68 75.5%
3 9721 42.93% 37.13 78.31%
4 7051 34.59% 39.19 81.14%
5 231 25.11% 35.97 82.25%
6 1435 25.12% 39.81 79.93%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)