Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 39 23.08% 27.72 79.49% -0.253 -0.1443 0.0
Blitz 0 755 47.66% 31.94 67.95% -0.079 0.188 -1.669
Dahan Insurrection 4 1079 23.65% 59.86 82.67% -0.716 -0.3828 0.616
Despicable Theft 2 403 40.94% 34.85 81.14% -0.006 0.2442 -0.383
Elemental Invocation 1 572 50.17% 33.28 72.38% -0.791 -0.1424 -1.453
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5262 18.1% 50.86 81.34% -0.114 0.052 0.272
Powers Long Forgotten 1 218 65.14% 30.14 63.76% -0.492 -0.1665 -0.274
Rituals of Terror 3 196 53.25% 37.03 72.96% 0.149 0.0398 -0.695
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 140 71.43% 36.37 70.71% 0.052 0.7087 0.511
Second Wave 0 2363 44.33% 30.15 79.22% -0.75 -0.2789 -0.549
The Great River 3 976 62.28% 32.34 63.32% -1.128 0.373 -1.644
Varied Terrains 2 54 48.15% 30.78 75.93% -0.991 -0.4557 -0.446
Ward the Shores 2 274 25.55% 33.02 72.99% -0.936 0.2513 -1.78

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 54069 51.24% 38.72 74.35% 0.151 0.5984 0.533
1 Thematic 1970 44.54% 35.82 73.3% -0.302 0.3008 -0.273
2 Archipelago 76 32.89% 37.62 86.84% -0.555 0.1105 -0.843
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12063 52.8% 35.93 74.03% 0.125 0.5164 0.1
2 Coastline 2411 46.7% 34.99 77.44% 0.581 0.6688 0.205
2 Fragment 398 59.7% 39.9 74.12% 0.277 0.343 1.119
2 Heart 180 52.51% 33.78 74.44% -0.931 -0.6588 0.505
2 Opposite Shores 3713 41.22% 34.11 79.8% -0.003 0.4893 -0.12
2 Thematic 1001 49.05% 35.53 69.83% 0.351 0.8188 0.01
2 Top to Top 457 45.93% 37.67 74.62% 0.055 0.3368 -0.021
3 Archipelago 63 28.57% 49.75 93.65% 0.41 0.0268 0.461
3 Coastline 185 60.87% 37.22 72.97% 0.403 -0.236 0.449
3 Other 422 32.54% 32.34 90.76% 0.492 -0.5977 0.687
3 Round (Default) 8083 42.76% 37.31 78.21% 0.224 0.4923 0.014
3 Sunrise 24 50.0% 35.04 79.17% 0.052 -0.1672 0.632
3 Thematic 314 52.24% 37.19 71.66% 0.04 -0.1831 0.027
4 Archipelago 52 31.37% 42.31 84.62% 0.176 -0.6752 -0.063
4 Coastline 91 38.64% 35.87 85.71% -0.651 -0.6435 0.09
4 Leaf 27 59.26% 40.0 74.07% -0.474 -0.2337 -1.185
4 Other 297 34.01% 34.41 89.23% 0.538 0.0921 1.193
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1267 30.93% 51.87 80.35% -0.348 -0.2515 -0.783
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4958 36.22% 36.51 80.27% 0.172 0.035 -0.333
5 Archipelago 8 75.0% 44.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.4166 0.0
5 Coastline 7 14.29% 37.57 85.71% 0.009 -0.5033 0.139
5 Other 275 33.21% 38.59 82.55% -0.067 0.202 0.487
5 Thematic 42 23.81% 52.05 88.1% -0.46 -0.567 -0.376
6 Archipelago 25 16.0% 36.6 88.0% 0.423 -0.0923 -0.384
6 Coastline 4 75.0% 26.5 100.0% 0.463 0.0229 0.0
6 Other 169 24.4% 30.98 79.29% -0.533 0.3552 -0.542
6 Star 95 26.32% 33.16 70.53% -0.332 0.5622 -0.744
6 Thematic 392 26.67% 41.56 79.85% -0.737 -0.3736 -0.869
6 Two Centers (Default) 488 23.4% 40.53 82.58% -0.567 -0.1888 -0.992
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.8404 0.0
7 Other 8 14.29% 41.5 100.0% 1.09 0.1547 0.879

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3131 36.21 56.5% -1.815 0.0163 -1.459
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2832 37.26 58.86% -1.949 -0.2943 -1.273
All Things Weaken 3516 33.56 50.97% -2.094 -0.1171 -1.826
Back Against the Wall 2620 36.02 56.68% -2.361 -0.5025 -1.368
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2972 32.37 52.25% -2.014 -0.04 -1.729
Downward Spiral 3467 34.55 59.33% -1.396 0.506 -1.465
Erosion of Will 3285 34.8 51.63% -1.99 0.0539 -1.743
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1379 40.61 83.54% -0.36 0.2126 -0.637
Memory Fades to Dust 3590 34.41 55.26% -2.16 -0.181 -1.628
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3547 33.85 55.34% -1.952 -0.0599 -1.675
Promising Farmlands 3011 33.41 51.61% -1.984 0.0544 -1.802
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 891 42.64 88.33% 0.186 0.6272 -0.025
Thriving Communities 3510 32.84 52.88% -1.883 0.0813 -1.761
Unnatural Proliferation 3745 34.94 53.14% -1.982 -0.0762 -1.679
Untended Land Crumbles 3551 33.42 54.04% -2.029 0.0059 -1.653

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 19994 46.13% 36.8 76.68% 0.251 1.0192 0.041
B 22469 47.37% 37.75 76.29% 0.25 0.9431 0.167
C 20078 45.55% 36.44 77.08% 0.146 0.7103 -0.136
D 17119 45.46% 35.51 76.68% 0.085 0.8532 -0.203
E 23152 46.77% 40.12 76.74% 0.465 1.0646 0.316
F 16222 44.88% 36.78 76.88% 0.151 0.861 -0.087
G 13625 46.35% 35.84 75.99% 0.009 0.735 -0.218
H 14362 45.26% 37.25 77.59% 0.322 1.0124 -0.026
East 3756 39.4% 42.93 76.28% -0.792 -0.1699 -0.144
Northeast 2218 37.6% 44.0 76.38% -0.231 0.4504 -0.067
Northwest 1868 37.57% 43.74 75.59% -0.588 0.4786 -0.14
Southeast 1620 36.3% 42.74 76.91% 0.725 1.4526 -0.219
Southwest 1705 37.26% 40.53 76.95% -0.097 0.8732 -0.045
West 3709 39.5% 41.68 74.98% -0.59 0.413 -0.287

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 590 0.0% 30.21 89.49% 0.557 2.5686 0.05
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 51.72% 24.74 82.86% -0.348 -0.1337 -0.368
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2137 13.88% 47.94 93.03% 0.543 0.4498 -0.563
Start of Game Growth 4240 19.0% 50.88 90.26% 0.701 -0.0071 1.207
Unlimited Undo 8495 37.25% 41.07 85.03% 0.481 -0.219 0.805
Using Tokens but Not Events 9495 31.95% 35.3 85.43% 0.005 -0.0408 -0.361

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 4239 100.0% 37.09 100.0% 0.026 -0.1081 0.28
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 987 100.0% 32.74 100.0% 0.144 0.1897 -0.423
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1647 100.0% 33.76 100.0% -0.173 -0.2926 -0.009
Downpour Drenches the World 306 100.0% 39.75 100.0% 0.503 0.8519 0.6
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2575 100.0% 37.24 100.0% 0.373 -0.0479 0.21
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2297 100.0% 37.7 100.0% -0.163 -0.7246 -0.515
Finder of Paths Unseen 281 100.0% 38.17 100.0% 0.332 0.7337 1.164
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1419 100.0% 44.43 100.0% 0.209 0.2637 0.856
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1190 100.0% 36.54 100.0% 0.14 0.1318 0.415
Heart of the Wildfire 1507 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.322 -0.0959 -0.369
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6948 100.0% 39.72 100.0% 0.48 -0.0421 0.131
Lightning's Swift Strike 1130 216.83% 33.96 137.96% 0.043 0.2864 -0.506
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 95 44.68% 38.88 69.47% -0.084 -0.9374 -0.339
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 703 37.63% 37.68 81.51% 0.466 -0.1438 0.647
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1351 37.17% 44.45 80.01% 0.263 -0.114 0.819
Many Minds Move as One 2944 100.0% 37.63 100.0% 0.253 -0.2859 0.536
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6018 100.0% 36.58 100.0% 0.365 0.0479 0.182
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1527 100.0% 34.67 100.0% -0.072 -0.0882 -0.217
River Surges in Sunlight 2076 132.6% 37.99 114.98% -0.556 -0.5032 0.156
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1074 44.05% 36.23 73.56% 0.041 0.3986 -0.468
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 134 38.81% 42.3 79.85% -0.11 -0.3404 -0.283
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2892 100.0% 41.88 100.0% -0.1 -0.134 -0.142
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 297 295.39% 32.07 188.22% -0.182 0.2851 -1.041
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 41 40.0% 39.85 82.93% 0.279 0.3764 0.402
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 39 35.9% 41.46 76.92% -0.533 -0.7086 0.009
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 548 48.53% 32.75 74.09% 0.044 -0.0158 -0.36
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 475 43.95% 33.32 78.11% -0.534 -0.3738 -0.246
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3497 100.0% 41.35 100.0% 0.114 -0.1887 0.344
Shifting Memory of Ages 1141 100.0% 35.26 100.0% -0.045 -0.0061 0.173
Shroud of Silent Mist 1136 100.0% 31.43 100.0% -0.468 -0.1435 -0.085
Starlight Seeks its Form 1163 100.0% 38.61 100.0% 0.205 0.0002 -0.224
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3580 100.0% 38.61 100.0% 0.062 -0.1244 0.187
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2027 100.0% 39.19 100.0% 0.069 0.1535 0.754
Thunderspeaker 2115 100.0% 37.79 100.0% -0.079 -0.1098 -0.127
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1721 100.0% 32.99 100.0% -0.452 -0.4959 -0.261
Vital Strength of the Earth 693 142.22% 30.34 120.49% 0.288 1.0831 -1.06
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 59 42.37% 36.98 72.88% -0.162 0.2899 -0.373
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 464 44.06% 32.87 72.84% -0.494 0.5375 -0.706
Volcano Looming High 2789 100.0% 34.88 100.0% -0.193 -0.167 -0.062

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 81.0%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.89%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.31%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 98.94%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8223 22.6 17.65%
II 42044 31.02 69.78%
III 34215 34.59 90.02%
IV 9162 37.83 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1451
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 30341
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 28580
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9074
Lose: Invader deck ran out 538
Lose: Adversary condition 6536
Win: Sacrifice victory 182
Lose: Scenario condition 913
Win: Scenario condition 1092
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14526
Lose: Spirit destroyed 411

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.264 Win Model: -0.258

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: 0.049
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 56204 51.06% 38.61 74.25%
2 20349 49.6% 35.65 75.59%
3 9026 42.87% 37.08 78.34%
4 6706 34.75% 39.47 81.14%
5 189 25.7% 35.7 82.01%
6 1170 24.72% 38.81 80.43%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)