Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 214 48.13% 31.52 -3.103 69.16% -0.827 -0.2602
Dahan Insurrection 4 232 29.31% 58.06 9.931 78.88% -0.316 0.083
Elemental Invocation 1 44 36.36% 31.34 -2.083 88.64% 0.007 0.6491
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1608 20.1% 51.87 5.382 84.27% 0.105 0.4872
Powers Long Forgotten 1 65 64.62% 31.78 -2.017 64.62% -0.816 -0.3652
Rituals of Terror 3 60 48.89% 39.02 1.031 76.67% -0.954 -0.3328
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 39 82.05% 35.69 0.601 61.54% -0.652 -0.0235
Second Wave 0 373 53.64% 29.98 -3.206 76.14% -0.885 -0.4603
The Great River 3 479 61.43% 33.42 -1.532 63.67% -1.689 -0.2076
Ward the Shores 2 66 34.85% 31.08 -3.088 63.64% -2.217 -1.1886

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 18218 50.42% 40.27 0.715 75.96% -0.159 0.1985
1 Thematic 551 49.36% 35.5 -1.497 70.78% -0.759 -0.2632
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3117 51.69% 37.31 -0.285 76.36% -0.221 -0.0358
2 Coastline 632 50.32% 35.0 -1.048 76.11% -0.149 -0.0247
2 Fragment 104 58.65% 42.6 1.187 75.96% -0.026 0.4121
2 Heart 32 40.63% 31.78 -2.511 81.25% -0.031 0.2557
2 Opposite Shores 1077 37.49% 32.81 -2.194 82.82% -0.241 -0.0192
2 Thematic 262 45.21% 36.74 -0.596 73.66% -0.642 -0.5997
2 Top to Top 108 42.59% 38.56 -0.401 69.44% -0.826 -0.709
3 Coastline 81 63.75% 38.27 1.735 72.84% 0.51 0.449
3 Other 110 48.15% 36.21 -0.379 86.36% 0.485 0.9006
3 Round (Default) 1965 44.23% 36.46 -0.678 78.12% -0.118 -0.0973
3 Sunrise 9 44.44% 40.67 0.348 77.78% -0.133 -0.3903
3 Thematic 57 54.39% 39.6 0.662 70.18% -0.354 -0.6949
4 Coastline 37 51.43% 39.76 2.52 83.78% 0.683 0.8974
4 Leaf 4 25.0% 44.0 2.707 100.0% 0.487 0.5304
4 Other 98 31.63% 36.87 -0.77 92.86% 0.617 0.6903
4 Thematic 314 27.16% 53.55 4.67 83.44% 0.133 -0.9603
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1361 32.59% 38.59 -0.333 81.12% -0.219 -0.2659
5 Other 33 33.33% 42.7 2.465 93.94% 0.803 0.5551
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 59.0 8.41 100.0% 0.228 -2.4792

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 951 38.22 -1.476 60.25% -1.845 0.2199
Aid From Lesser Spirits 837 38.89 -0.86 62.6% -1.763 0.1536
All Things Weaken 1077 34.16 -3.477 51.81% -2.343 -0.1832
Back Against the Wall 751 37.13 -1.766 58.99% -1.986 0.1107
Disintegrating Ecosystem 916 33.66 -3.77 55.13% -2.171 0.0514
Downward Spiral 1024 35.96 -2.387 59.57% -1.882 0.1309
Erosion of Will 1004 35.18 -3.077 52.49% -2.256 -0.0468
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 441 41.26 0.598 85.03% -0.592 0.1233
Memory Fades to Dust 1034 35.77 -2.698 56.96% -2.027 0.1868
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1036 35.48 -2.845 58.49% -2.006 0.0089
Promising Farmlands 884 34.63 -3.353 52.94% -2.177 0.0396
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 274 43.73 1.477 87.23% -0.435 -0.005
Thriving Communities 1069 33.83 -3.54 53.88% -2.202 -0.0879
Unnatural Proliferation 1156 36.01 -2.508 54.93% -2.114 -0.0301
Untended Land Crumbles 1086 34.27 -3.349 54.79% -2.153 -0.0609

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3898 48.77% 38.72 -0.218 76.45% 0.16 -0.9079
B 4273 50.81% 39.18 0.091 76.53% 0.211 -0.9478
C 3471 48.3% 37.1 -0.848 76.63% 0.068 -1.3252
D 2645 48.02% 35.67 -1.386 75.05% -0.142 -1.2953
E 5118 48.82% 43.9 2.05 77.98% 0.402 -0.8435
F 2803 47.12% 38.44 -0.291 77.17% 0.06 -1.1579
G 2244 48.63% 37.02 -0.913 76.2% -0.004 -1.2141
H 2530 46.94% 38.82 -0.109 77.71% 0.092 -1.1254
East 213 37.09% 47.36 2.232 80.75% 0.109 -0.8237
Northeast 256 49.41% 40.43 0.988 74.22% 0.044 -0.8227
Northwest 183 41.21% 40.44 0.212 71.58% -0.361 -1.2997
Southeast 136 41.91% 39.93 0.346 75.74% -0.048 -1.0328
Southwest 183 46.41% 37.72 -0.65 74.86% 0.023 -0.5967
West 225 39.46% 38.29 -0.441 72.44% -0.581 -1.2403

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 184 0.0% 28.13 -5.318 91.3% -1.454 0.5795
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 25.0% 25.0 -2.663 100.0% 0.344 0.5694
Skip Initial Invader Actions 710 16.59% 50.5 2.695 94.51% 0.525 -0.1835
Start of Game Growth 1340 22.51% 51.95 4.957 91.27% 0.765 0.3072
Unlimited Undo 2532 37.11% 43.53 1.438 86.93% 0.512 0.1145
Using Tokens but Not Events 2877 34.77% 35.51 -1.831 84.39% -0.054 -0.1023

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1059 32.29% 37.48 -0.222 85.84% 0.407 0.5586
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 239 48.1% 32.78 -2.258 73.64% -0.443 -0.2035
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 427 40.85% 33.72 -1.628 78.45% -0.068 -0.1525
Eyes Watch From the Trees 578 35.94% 38.5 0.229 80.28% 0.111 -0.2568
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 547 38.93% 35.94 -1.195 76.42% -0.19 -0.4136
Fractured Days Split the Sky 480 33.47% 44.76 2.163 82.08% 0.105 0.4344
Heart of the Wildfire 421 63.57% 33.94 -2.005 67.22% -0.309 0.0414
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1701 38.68% 40.35 0.559 81.19% 0.183 -0.1125
Lightning's Swift Strike 824 42.46% 38.93 0.544 79.49% 0.269 0.5414
Many Minds Move as One 806 42.36% 38.77 0.374 81.64% 0.193 -0.3225
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1808 37.88% 36.57 -0.446 82.74% 0.158 -0.0378
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 407 46.55% 34.86 -1.189 74.94% -0.046 0.0089
River Surges in Sunlight 843 44.19% 36.93 -0.685 75.68% -0.254 -0.0832
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 813 35.79% 44.76 1.507 78.72% -0.167 -0.0129
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 363 48.76% 33.16 -2.029 76.86% -0.166 0.2878
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 840 39.93% 41.11 0.627 82.86% 0.214 0.1515
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1011 40.48% 39.85 0.124 81.01% 0.252 0.2387
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 569 45.95% 39.52 0.575 79.61% 0.288 0.5083
Thunderspeaker 485 43.27% 36.69 -0.751 75.26% -0.325 -0.2615
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 475 65.12% 34.02 -1.947 66.32% -0.293 -0.2464
Vital Strength of the Earth 299 38.18% 31.42 -2.865 77.93% -0.329 0.5376
Volcano Looming High 270 53.33% 35.33 -1.079 77.41% 0.295 0.1387

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Untamed Wild 83.2%
Perils of the Deepest Island 91.55%
Softly Beckon Ever Inward 94.19%
Swallowed by the Wilderness 99.03%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2183 22.32 18.42%
II 12990 30.66 71.29%
III 10354 34.18 89.99%
IV 2651 37.44 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 402
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9202
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9119
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2625
Lose: Invader deck ran out 168
Lose: Adversary condition 1825
Win: Sacrifice victory 48
Lose: Scenario condition 267
Win: Scenario condition 225
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4181
Lose: Spirit destroyed 116

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.688 Win Model: -0.241

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.131 Win Model: -0.081
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 18779 50.39% 40.13 75.82%
2 5360 48.28% 36.22 77.43%
3 2212 45.22% 36.53 78.12%
4 1827 31.72% 41.21 82.38%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-05 01:48:39 (Pacific Time)