Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2788 52.82% 26.85 -0.047 64.24% -0.712 -0.1399
Dahan Insurrection 4 2847 34.57% 54.05 -0.007 73.59% -0.319 0.0817
Elemental Invocation 1 83 49.4% 30.75 -0.005 74.7% -0.458 0.0073
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8948 18.28% 43.42 -0.02 70.91% -0.891 -0.5157
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1070 48.96% 37.32 -0.035 70.0% -0.564 -0.1165
Rituals of Terror 3 836 59.76% 36.45 -0.066 59.33% -0.82 -0.1975
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 414 82.28% 34.28 -0.091 50.97% -0.769 -0.1446
Second Wave 0 6769 50.68% 28.34 -0.023 72.2% -0.713 -0.2942
The Great River 3 369 45.63% 33.08 -0.051 67.75% -1.383 0.1018
Ward the Shores 2 1056 47.22% 36.46 -0.052 64.87% -0.909 0.1215

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 113174 50.84% 25.71 -0.012 68.87% -1.201 -0.8459
1 Thematic 4999 59.16% 33.66 -0.039 59.81% -1.321 -0.8235
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 37457 45.75% 29.72 0.008 74.52% -0.483 -0.2934
2 Coastline 5388 40.97% 32.74 0.02 77.54% -0.34 -0.2055
2 Fragment 1165 48.04% 26.59 -0.017 69.53% -0.802 -0.3765
2 Heart 511 53.83% 25.48 -0.004 71.82% -0.614 -0.3232
2 Opposite Shores 7566 40.9% 35.35 0.021 78.22% -0.354 -0.1278
2 Thematic 2659 48.8% 40.65 -0.023 64.46% -0.595 -0.551
2 Top to Top 1308 40.8% 32.08 0.021 77.98% -0.372 -0.2551
3 Coastline 235 24.03% 48.51 0.028 85.53% 0.129 0.0915
3 Other 667 37.9% 28.55 -0.007 75.71% -0.359 0.043
3 Round (Default) 17126 39.16% 32.84 0.013 78.54% 0.123 0.1543
3 Sunrise 87 47.62% 41.64 0.043 82.76% 0.644 0.3908
3 Thematic 698 47.46% 38.98 -0.027 66.05% -0.164 -0.5031
4 Coastline 94 21.28% 46.8 0.016 85.11% 0.193 0.3155
4 Leaf 71 34.33% 30.49 -0.006 77.46% 0.309 0.389
4 Other 516 35.04% 35.79 0.005 81.01% 0.362 0.4425
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 40.67 0.027 100.0% 0.384 -0.4078
4 Snake 9 77.78% 31.44 -0.089 55.56% 0.052 0.1779
4 Thematic 2789 33.36% 46.53 -0.024 71.17% 0.254 -0.8239
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15265 30.21% 34.78 0.018 82.63% 0.69 0.6577
5 Coastline 2 50.0% 54.5 0.096 100.0% 0.246 0.1958
5 Other 91 42.7% 37.95 0.08 93.41% 1.964 1.7472
5 Thematic 7 57.14% 58.14 0.173 100.0% 1.785 -0.9826

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 5553 30.1 -0.126 50.48% -2.397 -0.3289
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4908 32.64 -0.104 55.26% -2.204 -0.2874
All Things Weaken 1648 29.94 -0.134 48.54% -2.482 -0.3215
Back Against the Wall 4954 31.27 -0.118 52.81% -2.349 -0.2568
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5219 27.37 -0.139 48.02% -2.528 -0.3063
Downward Spiral 20440 21.89 -0.117 54.93% -2.488 -0.4735
Erosion of Will 5427 28.52 -0.143 47.25% -2.575 -0.3639
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 592 39.32 0.025 82.26% -0.781 -0.0694
Memory Fades to Dust 20695 21.57 -0.136 51.19% -2.653 -0.4377
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1598 30.62 -0.121 51.19% -2.339 -0.3187
Promising Farmlands 5477 26.82 -0.151 46.07% -2.656 -0.4416
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 417 39.24 0.05 87.77% -0.351 0.0655
Thriving Communities 1637 29.94 -0.124 50.52% -2.37 -0.2628
Tipping Point 3210 27.36 -0.146 46.67% -2.592 -0.3762
Unnatural Proliferation 1679 31.53 -0.133 48.24% -2.427 -0.3468
Untended Land Crumbles 1609 30.84 -0.12 50.96% -2.315 -0.2197

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 39405 47.93% 25.69 -0.007 70.78% -0.276 -1.3497
B 41879 45.61% 27.54 -0.001 72.42% -0.25 -1.4144
C 46428 46.29% 29.57 0.011 73.3% -0.023 -1.4195
D 37129 44.94% 26.93 0.002 72.88% -0.216 -1.3741
E 5585 48.96% 34.35 0.007 73.09% -0.067 -1.3241
F 9559 45.23% 32.75 0.006 74.23% -0.151 -1.3766
G 10853 44.85% 34.33 0.007 73.68% -0.108 -1.3206
H 8724 46.72% 31.71 0.004 73.75% -0.173 -1.3941
East 2291 49.69% 40.78 -0.029 63.86% -0.455 -1.3905
Northeast 2563 53.52% 38.33 -0.033 61.96% -0.488 -1.3576
Northwest 2924 42.6% 42.86 -0.018 69.02% -0.413 -1.3578
Southeast 313 47.57% 36.72 -0.015 69.01% -0.5 -1.4828
Southwest 292 59.66% 31.02 -0.052 58.56% -0.739 -1.3644
West 2282 51.29% 36.26 -0.052 59.9% -0.799 -1.4644

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 28447 0.0% 16.24 -0.095 57.93% -2.366 -0.3273
Not Using Events or Tokens 82273 45.98% 21.35 -0.01 70.17% -0.184 0.0358
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9326 10.28% 37.93 0.078 93.9% 1.363 0.6571
Start of Game Growth 12099 14.47% 37.28 0.067 91.11% 0.762 0.3028
Unlimited Undo 24845 32.52% 31.25 0.049 84.47% 0.494 0.092
Using Tokens but Not Events 19469 33.8% 30.77 0.028 81.52% 0.094 0.0482

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 17847 31.83% 32.34 0.014 79.95% -0.135 0.0114
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5222 50.72% 29.12 -0.015 72.42% -0.352 -0.1155
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3575 34.7% 34.9 0.016 80.25% 0.033 -0.0538
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3913 31.94% 34.67 0.029 83.67% 0.167 -0.2019
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3269 37.03% 35.15 0.015 78.65% 0.106 -0.1273
Fractured Days Split the Sky 747 37.5% 40.86 0.029 81.79% 0.135 0.4688
Heart of the Wildfire 4673 55.3% 31.64 -0.014 71.69% -0.13 0.2176
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12032 37.22% 40.86 0.027 80.1% 0.301 0.0035
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 942 43.79% 38.47 0.015 78.03% 0.196 -0.1652
Many Minds Move as One 800 39.37% 35.2 0.033 83.88% 0.295 -0.2188
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 13919 38.44% 37.73 0.026 79.81% 0.299 0.1015
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3238 40.21% 33.42 0.007 77.61% -0.076 -0.0287
River Surges in Sunlight 26483 34.82% 34.67 0.02 79.43% 0.05 0.2173
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 8443 36.64% 38.24 0.017 79.08% 0.117 0.2666
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8993 47.44% 26.26 -0.011 73.42% -0.281 0.1687
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5509 33.48% 36.42 0.013 79.83% -0.096 -0.1606
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1845 49.89% 33.45 -0.018 70.51% -0.313 -0.332
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2546 35.9% 35.76 0.014 80.16% -0.054 0.1614
Thunderspeaker 9980 40.79% 34.36 -0.004 74.68% -0.17 -0.1099
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 998 62.64% 31.23 -0.028 67.23% -0.234 -0.1972
Vital Strength of the Earth 14877 35.1% 25.37 -0.012 75.16% -0.497 0.368
Volcano Looming High 247 50.0% 36.84 0.021 79.35% 0.168 0.0675

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 95.19%
Lightning's Boon 87.58%
Raging Storm 87.89%
Shatter Homesteads 98.72%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 30843 22.34 32.93%
II 110147 30.71 72.05%
III 55824 34.23 86.5%
IV 15078 37.48 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6631
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32420
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 52116
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11086
Lose: Invader deck ran out 763
Lose: Adversary condition 9993
Win: Sacrifice victory 614
Lose: Scenario condition 2038
Win: Scenario condition 2779
Lose: Blight pool ran out 44871
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1427

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.569 Win Model: -0.132

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: -0.417
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 118183 51.24% 26.05 68.49%
2 56099 44.76% 31.24 74.79%
3 18831 39.26% 33.18 78.13%
4 18779 30.85% 36.59 80.88%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.11 Win Model: -1.237
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 183863 31.19 74.95%
Power Progression 28029 14.61 53.49%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)