Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 14.29% 28.79 92.86% 0.084 -0.118 0.0
Blitz 0 2368 56.11% 26.33 62.96% -0.6 -0.3429 -0.895
Dahan Insurrection 4 2175 34.7% 55.22 72.41% -1.111 -0.6979 0.371
Despicable Theft 2 92 53.26% 31.01 66.3% -1.304 -0.8578 -1.896
Elemental Invocation 1 185 59.46% 27.23 63.24% -0.725 -0.2394 -0.874
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6751 18.56% 43.64 69.62% -0.726 -0.4204 -0.289
Powers Long Forgotten 1 776 51.17% 36.63 68.04% -0.09 0.0915 -0.589
Rituals of Terror 3 612 56.55% 36.82 64.05% -0.852 -0.7306 -0.512
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 294 82.13% 34.36 51.36% -0.221 0.1943 -0.207
Second Wave 0 5306 50.08% 27.54 72.77% -0.452 0.114 -0.413
The Great River 3 614 53.37% 30.7 66.78% -0.383 1.0149 -1.207
Varied Terrains 2 7 42.86% 31.86 85.71% -0.178 0.3479 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 762 44.88% 37.56 64.96% -0.84 0.3221 -0.58

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 140460 51.53% 23.93 67.83% -0.081 0.9353 0.023
1 Thematic 5923 59.92% 32.83 59.34% -0.408 0.7647 -0.217
2 Archipelago 36 50.0% 34.83 91.67% 0.623 1.6069 0.807
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 45268 46.0% 28.4 73.88% 0.013 0.7645 0.42
2 Coastline 6503 41.34% 30.72 76.36% 0.533 1.1354 -0.006
2 Fragment 1382 46.44% 23.8 69.61% -0.147 0.3003 0.397
2 Heart 622 52.21% 24.41 70.42% -0.489 0.0494 0.935
2 Opposite Shores 8712 40.95% 33.64 77.66% 0.06 1.052 0.785
2 Thematic 3231 46.92% 42.65 65.43% 0.192 0.8904 0.563
2 Top to Top 1557 41.94% 30.07 76.24% 0.657 1.1676 0.332
3 Archipelago 11 27.27% 36.45 100.0% 0.044 0.2174 0.0
3 Coastline 171 31.33% 38.23 80.12% -0.14 -0.9232 0.22
3 Other 851 35.21% 27.92 76.85% -0.668 -0.7036 0.288
3 Round (Default) 20385 37.6% 32.2 79.8% -0.059 0.536 0.255
3 Sunrise 98 36.67% 36.6 86.73% 0.044 0.0806 1.163
3 Thematic 766 45.88% 39.13 67.49% 0.948 0.9105 -0.503
4 Archipelago 18 46.67% 36.39 88.89% 0.0 -0.7111 0.479
4 Coastline 79 31.17% 29.27 70.89% 0.071 0.1879 -0.937
4 Leaf 86 32.1% 31.09 79.07% 0.038 0.6009 0.128
4 Other 517 36.81% 31.91 78.14% 0.016 -0.2377 -0.058
4 Reverse Snake 8 14.29% 37.13 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 7 71.43% 32.43 42.86% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 3061 31.98% 47.42 71.58% 0.386 0.9148 -1.102
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18193 29.77% 34.3 83.09% 0.205 0.1778 -0.03
5 Archipelago 3 66.67% 30.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.5788 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 183 40.13% 37.36 87.43% -0.572 -0.4037 -0.196
5 Thematic 25 28.0% 52.04 84.0% -0.529 -0.8061 0.049
6 Archipelago 11 16.67% 36.36 81.82% 0.062 -0.1938 -0.754
6 Coastline 15 33.33% 29.13 93.33% -0.186 -0.7746 -0.275
6 Other 50 29.55% 39.48 82.0% -0.341 0.4686 -0.376
6 Star 28 11.11% 32.04 85.71% 0.087 0.8702 -0.276
6 Thematic 135 20.0% 39.45 88.89% -0.922 -1.2011 -0.956
6 Two Centers (Default) 276 16.67% 29.3 93.48% -0.371 -0.4655 -1.379
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.415 -0.1625 0.433
7 Other 1 0.0% 96.0 100.0% 0.095 -1.0576 0.131

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6255 28.47 49.4% -2.429 -0.5257 -1.067
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5462 31.09 53.77% -2.396 -0.6661 -0.785
All Things Weaken 1835 25.4 42.62% -2.753 -0.7679 -1.389
Back Against the Wall 5591 29.88 51.8% -2.344 -0.5277 -0.977
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5895 25.72 46.55% -2.728 -0.6775 -1.122
Downward Spiral 26623 20.99 54.41% -2.809 -0.8164 -1.071
Erosion of Will 6082 27.09 46.48% -2.908 -0.8247 -1.169
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 621 34.57 81.8% -0.189 0.2518 -0.561
Memory Fades to Dust 26919 20.72 50.63% -3.002 -0.9178 -1.17
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1795 26.14 45.68% -2.798 -0.8593 -1.371
Promising Farmlands 6140 25.48 44.59% -2.609 -0.5635 -1.334
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 396 35.76 89.39% -0.03 0.3944 -0.187
Thriving Communities 1732 25.09 44.8% -3.074 -1.0902 -1.358
Tipping Point 3211 27.35 46.65% 0.0 -0.1175 -1.054
Unnatural Proliferation 1891 27.41 42.83% -2.81 -0.8459 -1.226
Untended Land Crumbles 1780 25.91 45.39% -2.476 -0.4832 -1.383

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 84491 43.66% 27.35 73.43% 0.055 0.852 0.137
B 86659 42.18% 28.17 74.62% 0.223 0.9669 0.269
C 89694 43.15% 29.01 74.64% 0.293 0.8616 0.895
D 78996 41.57% 27.9 74.93% 0.221 1.0172 0.168
E 11048 45.6% 30.96 74.96% 0.019 0.6658 -0.015
F 20441 42.21% 31.82 76.72% 0.19 0.9138 0.162
G 21384 42.54% 32.38 75.55% 0.316 1.0477 0.312
H 19989 42.09% 32.23 76.79% 0.171 0.883 0.036
East 9566 45.44% 41.94 66.06% -0.123 0.6454 0.435
Northeast 6716 42.28% 43.52 67.82% 0.429 1.2888 0.326
Northwest 5705 41.02% 43.17 68.78% -0.473 0.6033 0.284
Southeast 840 41.08% 37.94 71.9% -0.372 0.3338 0.467
Southwest 793 40.86% 35.7 69.36% -0.886 0.2397 -0.394
West 8626 44.99% 40.83 65.71% 0.139 1.0928 0.287

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 39390 0.0% 16.08 57.68% -3.415 -1.286 -0.961
Not Using Events or Tokens 115003 45.88% 21.39 69.99% 0.034 0.2091 -0.72
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11805 10.23% 37.16 93.88% 0.777 0.6351 0.347
Start of Game Growth 15190 14.77% 36.46 91.17% 1.206 0.4451 0.84
Unlimited Undo 31875 32.31% 30.98 84.71% 1.037 0.4327 0.888
Using Tokens but Not Events 23699 33.98% 30.9 81.38% 0.476 0.3198 -0.292

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 22046 100.0% 31.98 100.0% -0.047 -0.1617 -0.553
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6102 100.0% 27.95 100.0% -0.773 -0.6772 -0.281
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4417 100.0% 33.02 100.0% -0.204 -0.3649 0.004
Downpour Drenches the World 69 100.0% 33.45 100.0% 0.525 0.7779 0.582
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4850 100.0% 32.7 100.0% 0.001 -0.4369 0.166
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4235 100.0% 36.53 100.0% 0.547 0.0592 -0.001
Finder of Paths Unseen 38 100.0% 28.05 100.0% -0.675 -0.3114 -0.795
Fractured Days Split the Sky 328 100.0% 32.76 100.0% 0.593 0.6486 0.889
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 243 100.0% 29.29 100.0% -0.496 -0.5282 0.331
Heart of the Wildfire 5127 100.0% 31.18 100.0% 0.33 0.5044 -0.079
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12939 100.0% 40.12 100.0% 0.006 -0.4501 0.742
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1104 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.004 -0.2628 -0.476
Many Minds Move as One 843 100.0% 32.83 100.0% 0.095 -0.5076 -0.057
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 16899 100.0% 37.44 100.0% 0.301 0.1155 0.918
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3792 100.0% 32.16 100.0% -0.561 -0.5401 -0.056
River Surges in Sunlight 32700 100.76% 33.77 100.41% 0.084 0.0494 0.621
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 465 45.97% 29.96 71.4% 0.338 0.7688 -1.539
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 36 41.67% 43.75 97.22% 1.191 0.8901 1.106
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9505 100.0% 37.86 100.0% 0.021 -0.0313 0.605
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10213 101.89% 24.39 100.75% -0.326 0.0839 -0.019
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 9 75.0% 35.67 55.56% 0.367 0.3736 0.085
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 7 42.86% 33.29 85.71% 0.184 -0.1628 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 163 40.51% 28.76 79.14% 0.466 0.4857 -0.328
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 199 39.74% 28.86 80.9% -0.065 0.1179 0.492
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6073 100.0% 36.0 100.0% -0.101 -0.3879 0.303
Shifting Memory of Ages 357 100.0% 30.55 100.0% -0.302 -0.2273 -0.285
Shroud of Silent Mist 325 100.0% 29.78 100.0% -0.688 -0.4519 0.175
Starlight Seeks its Form 379 100.0% 31.6 100.0% 0.094 -0.0457 0.39
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1811 100.0% 32.28 100.0% 0.245 0.0629 -0.386
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3124 100.0% 33.62 100.0% 0.11 0.2945 0.218
Thunderspeaker 12105 100.0% 33.9 100.0% -0.07 -0.0054 -0.012
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 924 100.0% 28.8 100.0% -0.255 -0.3453 -0.196
Vital Strength of the Earth 18816 100.53% 25.02 100.28% -0.397 0.4115 -0.352
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 18 29.41% 34.33 83.33% -0.371 0.0159 -0.737
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 177 48.21% 27.87 72.32% -0.051 1.1231 -0.786
Volcano Looming High 477 100.0% 29.04 100.0% 0.029 0.0242 -0.49

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.77%
Lightning's Boon 86.13%
Raging Storm 88.56%
Shatter Homesteads 98.71%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 39312 22.56 33.08%
II 140238 30.98 72.61%
III 65314 34.53 86.23%
IV 13821 37.77 99.36%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13001
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 55110
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 99208
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13579
Lose: Invader deck ran out 964
Lose: Adversary condition 11073
Win: Sacrifice victory 782
Lose: Scenario condition 2240
Win: Scenario condition 3205
Lose: Blight pool ran out 57804
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1719

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.735 Win Model: -0.116

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.462 Win Model: 0.287
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 146439 51.92% 24.3 67.49%
2 67336 44.89% 29.89 74.14%
3 22284 37.71% 32.36 79.34%
4 22011 30.33% 36.06 81.33%
5 97 34.62% 34.24 82.47%
6 518 18.95% 33.66 90.73%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)