Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 9.52% 28.67 95.24% 0.265 0.6564 0.0
Blitz 0 2460 56.09% 26.26 63.5% -0.34 0.0463 -0.92
Dahan Insurrection 4 2227 34.38% 55.42 72.79% -0.136 0.1158 0.391
Despicable Theft 2 101 49.5% 31.19 68.32% -0.282 0.2358 -1.871
Elemental Invocation 1 201 60.2% 27.53 64.68% 0.524 1.1909 -0.854
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6946 18.55% 43.65 69.85% -0.574 -0.3231 -0.257
Powers Long Forgotten 1 795 50.82% 36.57 68.3% 0.305 0.7154 -0.597
Rituals of Terror 3 637 56.62% 36.71 64.21% -0.055 -0.4182 -0.544
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 301 82.21% 34.57 51.83% -0.22 -0.1483 -0.208
Second Wave 0 5476 50.28% 27.4 72.43% -0.962 -0.2929 -0.483
The Great River 3 667 53.71% 30.79 66.87% -1.185 0.523 -1.205
Varied Terrains 2 21 47.62% 34.76 80.95% 0.045 0.7663 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 781 44.87% 37.52 65.43% 0.061 0.9349 -0.549

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 145110 51.54% 23.87 67.78% 0.166 0.8664 0.02
1 Thematic 6005 60.01% 32.78 59.42% 0.34 1.4073 -0.215
2 Archipelago 37 48.65% 35.08 91.89% 0.06 -0.1009 0.789
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 46695 45.98% 28.35 73.86% 0.086 0.6277 0.413
2 Coastline 6742 41.18% 30.62 76.61% 0.646 0.9156 0.003
2 Fragment 1439 46.26% 23.64 69.7% -0.103 0.2164 0.4
2 Heart 647 52.78% 24.23 70.17% -0.018 0.5133 0.916
2 Opposite Shores 8944 41.04% 33.44 77.53% -0.429 0.1405 0.729
2 Thematic 3306 46.51% 42.68 65.37% 0.191 1.048 0.508
2 Top to Top 1595 41.94% 30.02 76.24% -0.007 0.1738 0.352
3 Archipelago 14 21.43% 36.43 100.0% 0.161 -0.0087 0.0
3 Coastline 182 32.95% 37.97 80.77% 1.096 0.6402 0.325
3 Other 876 35.64% 27.74 76.71% -0.09 -0.7307 0.268
3 Round (Default) 21061 37.49% 32.23 79.85% -0.093 0.2283 0.241
3 Sunrise 100 38.04% 36.27 87.0% 0.491 1.06 1.144
3 Thematic 790 45.36% 39.57 68.23% 0.028 0.0834 -0.327
4 Archipelago 23 44.44% 35.3 82.61% 0.068 0.1513 0.846
4 Coastline 90 34.09% 29.42 70.0% -0.144 -0.0468 -1.032
4 Leaf 88 32.93% 30.82 79.55% 0.511 0.412 0.071
4 Other 527 36.62% 31.78 78.18% -0.102 -0.6853 -0.031
4 Reverse Snake 8 14.29% 37.13 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 7 71.43% 32.43 42.86% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 3095 32.05% 47.37 71.63% -0.271 -0.2824 -1.173
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18724 29.63% 34.23 83.18% -0.114 -0.0696 -0.085
5 Archipelago 3 66.67% 30.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.3233 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 40.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1747 0.0
5 Other 213 40.11% 37.05 87.32% 0.863 0.373 -0.29
5 Thematic 27 25.93% 52.7 85.19% 0.034 -0.1642 0.112
6 Archipelago 16 16.67% 35.25 87.5% 0.06 -0.0133 -0.762
6 Coastline 21 33.33% 29.1 95.24% 0.073 -0.615 -0.36
6 Other 67 30.36% 40.55 83.58% 0.072 0.1709 -0.353
6 Star 30 10.34% 31.07 83.33% -0.626 0.0166 -0.322
6 Thematic 172 20.93% 41.92 88.95% -0.667 -0.291 -0.978
6 Two Centers (Default) 361 16.72% 29.69 92.8% -0.994 -0.8742 -1.382
7 Archipelago 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1712 0.436
7 Other 1 0.0% 96.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.666 0.113

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6417 28.42 49.52% -2.341 -0.3542 -1.062
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5603 31.09 53.9% -1.915 -0.1314 -0.744
All Things Weaken 1922 25.2 42.61% -2.528 -0.514 -1.414
Back Against the Wall 5720 29.82 51.85% -1.94 -0.0117 -0.969
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6032 25.68 46.49% -2.657 -0.5313 -1.119
Downward Spiral 27494 20.95 54.37% -2.749 -0.7534 -1.079
Erosion of Will 6220 27.09 46.62% -2.355 -0.2893 -1.152
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 656 34.54 81.86% -0.172 0.354 -0.532
Memory Fades to Dust 27819 20.68 50.59% -2.98 -0.8232 -1.149
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1880 26.05 45.48% -2.436 -0.4597 -1.363
Promising Farmlands 6270 25.45 44.67% -2.482 -0.4025 -1.321
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 425 35.66 87.76% -1.309 -0.7986 -0.416
Thriving Communities 1828 24.91 44.64% -2.547 -0.4936 -1.372
Tipping Point 3211 27.35 46.65% 0.0 0.0 -1.038
Unnatural Proliferation 1992 27.56 43.02% -2.381 -0.4198 -1.21
Untended Land Crumbles 1873 25.83 45.65% -2.599 -0.5675 -1.392

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 87249 43.57% 27.3 73.47% -0.165 0.5566 0.14
B 89371 42.14% 28.11 74.59% -0.197 0.4744 0.285
C 92519 43.04% 28.96 74.71% 0.235 0.6913 0.895
D 81461 41.49% 27.85 74.93% -0.075 0.6281 0.153
E 11724 45.44% 30.92 75.15% -0.157 0.3693 0.025
F 21292 42.37% 31.71 76.63% -0.119 0.5528 0.158
G 22214 42.54% 32.29 75.65% 0.105 0.7567 0.32
H 20778 42.09% 32.11 76.8% 0.049 0.7254 0.031
East 9780 45.27% 41.97 66.25% -0.84 -0.1871 0.34
Northeast 6851 42.17% 43.57 68.14% -0.195 0.4072 0.339
Northwest 5826 40.85% 43.24 69.05% -0.342 0.2828 0.311
Southeast 895 40.9% 38.34 72.51% 0.63 1.1779 0.458
Southwest 844 40.29% 36.34 70.14% 0.559 1.5029 -0.373
West 8821 44.75% 40.88 65.83% -0.159 0.6409 0.321

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 40886 0.0% 16.02 57.5% -3.486 -1.2373 -0.973
Not Using Events or Tokens 119500 45.83% 21.38 69.95% 0.269 0.4662 -0.688
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12176 10.3% 37.12 93.87% 1.499 0.6755 0.424
Start of Game Growth 15659 14.77% 36.42 91.16% 0.631 0.1351 0.812
Unlimited Undo 32864 32.33% 30.97 84.76% 0.694 0.0922 0.913
Using Tokens but Not Events 24373 34.01% 30.88 81.38% 0.466 0.6061 -0.306

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 22830 100.0% 31.98 100.0% 0.338 0.2971 -0.524
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6252 100.0% 27.89 100.0% -0.84 -0.7539 -0.288
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4561 100.0% 32.93 100.0% 0.796 0.5426 -0.001
Downpour Drenches the World 134 100.0% 34.31 100.0% 0.206 0.4845 0.801
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5014 100.0% 32.64 100.0% 0.545 0.0477 0.164
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4389 100.0% 36.49 100.0% 0.716 0.1234 0.006
Finder of Paths Unseen 79 100.0% 32.61 100.0% -0.487 -0.1572 -0.421
Fractured Days Split the Sky 349 100.0% 32.52 100.0% -1.081 -0.9708 0.599
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 298 100.0% 28.88 100.0% -0.389 -0.5451 0.261
Heart of the Wildfire 5220 100.0% 31.2 100.0% -0.651 -0.3015 -0.103
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13243 100.0% 40.12 100.0% 0.793 0.1974 0.735
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1211 100.0% 33.97 100.0% -0.037 -0.213 -0.5
Many Minds Move as One 881 100.0% 32.71 100.0% 0.053 -0.4758 -0.11
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 17333 100.0% 37.48 100.0% 0.55 0.3903 0.902
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3970 100.0% 32.11 100.0% -0.263 -0.2688 -0.203
River Surges in Sunlight 33902 100.91% 33.67 100.46% 0.459 0.3661 0.637
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 508 45.81% 30.07 72.24% 0.526 0.9727 -1.6
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 99 40.63% 41.9 85.86% -0.125 -0.373 0.778
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9662 100.0% 37.83 100.0% 0.487 0.2667 0.611
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10519 102.04% 24.33 100.81% -0.076 0.3958 -0.059
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 23 52.38% 29.09 69.57% 0.292 0.4702 0.205
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 15 28.57% 32.93 80.0% -0.357 -0.2946 -0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 170 40.61% 28.61 78.82% -0.461 -0.5451 -0.38
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 204 39.13% 28.98 80.88% 0.0 0.0683 0.474
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6222 100.0% 35.97 100.0% -0.131 -0.3381 0.318
Shifting Memory of Ages 414 100.0% 29.96 100.0% -0.418 -0.2115 -0.424
Shroud of Silent Mist 357 100.0% 29.78 100.0% 0.677 0.9155 0.223
Starlight Seeks its Form 480 100.0% 32.04 100.0% -0.186 -0.3099 0.338
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1882 100.0% 32.18 100.0% -0.643 -0.8664 -0.439
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3235 100.0% 33.53 100.0% 0.358 0.4494 0.229
Thunderspeaker 12428 100.0% 33.89 100.0% -0.056 -0.0395 -0.039
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 954 100.0% 28.74 100.0% -0.342 -0.5469 -0.205
Vital Strength of the Earth 19543 100.61% 25.01 100.33% 0.165 1.078 -0.407
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 43 42.86% 35.05 72.09% -0.108 0.344 -0.179
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 190 46.67% 27.34 72.63% -0.664 0.3518 -0.807
Volcano Looming High 541 100.0% 29.34 100.0% 0.292 0.2906 -0.208

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.74%
Lightning's Boon 86.1%
Raging Storm 88.58%
Shatter Homesteads 98.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 40661 22.64 33.1%
II 144906 31.07 72.65%
III 67293 34.65 86.23%
IV 14182 37.9 99.38%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13456
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 56794
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 102585
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13937
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1008
Lose: Adversary condition 11337
Win: Sacrifice victory 813
Lose: Scenario condition 2281
Win: Scenario condition 3267
Lose: Blight pool ran out 59779
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1785

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.423 Win Model: -0.131

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.395 Win Model: 0.062
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 151185 51.93% 24.24 67.45%
2 69434 44.86% 29.81 74.14%
3 23021 37.61% 32.39 79.42%
4 22601 30.23% 35.95 81.42%
5 129 35.24% 34.5 83.72%
6 672 19.34% 34.59 90.63%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-15 03:07:34 (Pacific Time)