Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 26 15.38% 27.96 88.46% -0.077 -0.2184 0.0
Blitz 0 2536 56.29% 26.0 63.05% -0.676 -0.3379 -0.942
Dahan Insurrection 4 2296 33.69% 55.51 73.04% 0.419 0.1794 0.401
Despicable Theft 2 105 49.52% 31.16 68.57% 0.19 0.7896 -1.838
Elemental Invocation 1 207 61.35% 27.29 64.25% -0.475 0.3566 -0.817
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7050 18.43% 43.61 69.86% 0.126 -0.2402 -0.23
Powers Long Forgotten 1 806 50.75% 36.65 68.24% 0.072 0.5384 -0.589
Rituals of Terror 3 654 56.14% 36.93 64.07% -0.673 -0.9466 -0.5
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 307 82.24% 34.58 51.79% -0.107 0.5878 -0.143
Second Wave 0 5584 50.08% 27.33 72.44% 0.044 0.2311 -0.528
The Great River 3 686 53.97% 30.62 66.33% -1.103 0.4684 -1.243
Varied Terrains 2 22 50.0% 33.45 77.27% -0.579 0.0275 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 794 44.69% 37.45 65.62% 0.228 1.088 -0.558

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 148708 51.47% 23.76 67.5% 0.502 0.7662 0.023
1 Thematic 6076 59.96% 32.65 59.13% -0.485 0.1582 -0.161
2 Archipelago 40 50.0% 34.45 87.5% -0.462 0.4994 0.797
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 47768 46.0% 28.19 73.55% 0.331 0.5393 0.432
2 Coastline 6895 41.21% 30.49 76.49% 0.629 0.7774 0.085
2 Fragment 1471 46.19% 23.64 69.68% 0.781 0.7374 0.484
2 Heart 667 52.32% 24.05 69.72% -0.458 -0.5396 0.919
2 Opposite Shores 9101 40.96% 33.22 77.18% 0.089 0.2523 0.687
2 Thematic 3347 46.36% 42.66 65.28% 0.205 0.8577 0.581
2 Top to Top 1627 41.89% 29.87 76.09% 0.417 0.5864 0.389
3 Archipelago 15 20.0% 36.07 100.0% 0.175 -0.0582 0.0
3 Coastline 193 32.26% 37.44 81.35% 0.359 0.0493 0.329
3 Other 900 35.66% 27.59 76.67% 0.356 -0.2695 0.264
3 Round (Default) 21563 37.6% 32.13 79.61% 0.209 0.165 0.233
3 Sunrise 101 37.63% 36.13 87.13% 0.081 -0.1077 1.17
3 Thematic 802 45.43% 39.5 67.96% -0.222 -0.1524 -0.272
4 Archipelago 23 44.44% 35.3 82.61% 0.0 0.3569 0.849
4 Coastline 92 33.33% 29.24 70.65% -0.06 -0.5055 -1.027
4 Leaf 90 33.33% 30.43 78.89% -0.358 -0.7412 0.05
4 Other 537 36.51% 31.49 77.84% 0.222 -0.4988 0.019
4 Reverse Snake 8 14.29% 37.13 100.0% 0.0 -0.144 0.0
4 Snake 7 71.43% 32.43 42.86% 0.0 0.5153 0.0
4 Thematic 3117 31.89% 47.33 71.67% -0.263 -0.2744 -1.121
4 Trapezoid (Default) 19158 29.57% 34.16 83.07% 0.175 0.03 -0.078
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.067 -0.6752 0.0
5 Coastline 3 33.33% 31.67 100.0% 0.141 -0.1973 0.172
5 Other 247 38.21% 35.87 86.64% 0.176 -0.4146 -0.239
5 Thematic 30 26.67% 51.57 83.33% -0.339 -0.6434 -0.209
6 Archipelago 19 16.67% 34.74 89.47% 0.227 0.3923 -0.755
6 Coastline 27 20.0% 29.33 96.3% 0.411 -0.3386 -0.339
6 Other 79 28.57% 40.61 86.08% 0.542 0.1646 -0.258
6 Star 31 10.0% 30.81 83.87% 0.1 0.7412 -0.349
6 Thematic 206 19.9% 43.85 86.41% -1.038 -0.9578 -1.165
6 Two Centers (Default) 412 15.67% 28.39 90.53% -1.478 -1.0484 -1.661
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 33.67 100.0% 0.025 -0.9821 0.412
7 Other 4 33.33% 44.5 75.0% -0.7 -0.9993 0.113

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6526 28.34 49.45% -1.266 -0.2948 -1.032
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5718 31.02 53.88% -0.888 -0.1027 -0.738
All Things Weaken 1979 25.38 42.75% -1.062 0.0257 -1.382
Attenuated Essence 7 19.29 28.57% -1.15 -0.2632 -0.858
Back Against the Wall 5808 29.81 51.72% -1.245 -0.416 -0.946
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 24.67 16.67% -1.194 0.0567 -0.955
Burn Brightest Before the End 15 19.47 46.67% -1.06 -0.1189 -0.977
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6145 25.63 46.44% -1.198 -0.0785 -1.106
Downward Spiral 28057 20.9 54.27% -1.202 -0.2395 -1.056
Erosion of Will 6330 27.03 46.56% -1.457 -0.3411 -1.131
Intensifying Exploitation 6 27.17 33.33% -0.704 0.3703 -0.142
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 679 34.52 81.89% 0.398 0.2824 -0.475
Memory Fades to Dust 28406 20.63 50.51% -1.265 -0.1524 -1.131
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1934 25.95 45.5% -1.109 -0.1526 -1.33
Promising Farmlands 6372 25.43 44.68% -1.112 0.0237 -1.287
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 14.25 25.0% -2.232 -1.3096 -0.481
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 19.71 42.86% -0.974 0.2952 -0.315
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 455 35.12 87.47% -0.068 -0.3558 -0.374
The Border of Life and Death 4 32.5 50.0% -0.417 -0.0047 -0.481
Thriving Communities 1898 24.72 44.1% -1.948 -0.8007 -1.354
Thriving Crops 6 4.17 16.67% -1.377 -0.501 0.0
Tipping Point 3211 27.35 46.65% 0.0 -0.0581 -1.015
Unnatural Proliferation 2044 27.46 42.76% -1.789 -0.8232 -1.181
Untended Land Crumbles 1950 25.7 45.85% -1.103 -0.0704 -1.374

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 89379 43.53% 27.16 73.16% -0.586 0.2834 0.137
B 91414 42.08% 27.99 74.32% -0.566 0.2008 0.276
C 94518 42.93% 28.86 74.53% -0.246 0.3496 0.875
D 83355 41.45% 27.73 74.66% -0.443 0.3771 0.15
E 12297 45.19% 30.65 74.98% -0.294 0.3585 0.031
F 21962 42.32% 31.56 76.5% -0.425 0.3067 0.157
G 22841 42.52% 32.11 75.47% -0.457 0.2591 0.319
H 21414 42.03% 31.95 76.6% -0.413 0.2839 0.005
East 9926 45.11% 41.89 66.08% -0.694 -0.0331 0.286
Northeast 6961 41.96% 43.5 67.95% -0.615 0.2499 0.295
Northwest 5926 40.56% 43.27 68.98% -0.055 0.5301 0.262
Southeast 941 39.96% 38.77 72.37% -0.828 -0.1369 0.444
Southwest 890 39.32% 36.9 70.22% -0.112 1.13 -0.394
West 8956 44.51% 40.9 65.79% -0.077 0.9387 0.269

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 42196 0.0% 15.86 56.92% -2.083 -0.5954 -1.066
Not Using Events or Tokens 122764 45.76% 21.26 69.57% -0.066 0.1254 -0.693
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12449 10.29% 37.1 93.68% 1.454 0.738 0.458
Start of Game Growth 16084 14.77% 36.37 90.77% 0.37 -0.1017 0.791
Unlimited Undo 33705 32.29% 30.85 84.52% 0.605 0.3537 0.93
Using Tokens but Not Events 24965 33.77% 30.77 81.21% 0.222 0.223 -0.319

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 23313 100.0% 31.95 100.0% 0.471 0.3175 -0.453
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6401 100.0% 27.74 100.0% -0.207 -0.1558 -0.203
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4690 100.0% 32.67 100.0% 0.125 -0.0818 0.049
Downpour Drenches the World 181 100.0% 31.64 100.0% 0.101 0.4462 0.868
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 50 100.0% 26.76 100.0% 0.247 0.0337 -0.838
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5163 100.0% 32.44 100.0% 0.453 -0.0619 0.191
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4523 100.0% 36.43 100.0% 0.197 -0.2244 0.035
Finder of Paths Unseen 107 100.0% 28.18 100.0% -0.883 -0.3628 -0.531
Fractured Days Split the Sky 372 100.0% 31.62 100.0% -0.669 -0.3439 0.622
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 331 100.0% 28.44 100.0% -0.574 -0.691 0.246
Heart of the Wildfire 5299 100.0% 31.12 100.0% 0.092 0.2933 -0.071
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13440 100.0% 40.06 100.0% 0.439 -0.1635 0.757
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1290 100.0% 33.68 100.0% -0.02 -0.1803 -0.433
Many Minds Move as One 919 100.0% 32.41 100.0% 0.149 -0.2786 -0.026
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 17687 100.0% 37.48 100.0% 0.606 0.4909 0.942
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4072 100.0% 31.88 100.0% -0.027 -0.0911 -0.169
River Surges in Sunlight 34750 100.98% 33.53 100.49% 0.137 0.0514 0.699
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 538 44.81% 30.13 72.3% -0.186 -0.0466 -1.782
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 137 47.73% 40.82 84.67% 0.809 0.5459 0.965
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9799 100.0% 37.72 100.0% 0.259 0.1113 0.646
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10795 102.09% 24.2 100.86% -0.424 -0.0194 0.014
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 30 51.85% 27.6 63.33% -0.494 -0.4432 0.046
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 20 31.58% 27.55 70.0% -0.879 -0.8544 -0.16
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 173 40.48% 28.49 79.19% 0.444 0.389 -0.352
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 210 39.16% 29.01 80.95% 0.671 0.7795 0.681
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6310 100.06% 35.94 100.05% 0.34 0.1484 0.398
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 6 33.33% 15.33 50.0% -0.467 -0.431 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 448 100.0% 29.85 100.0% 0.191 0.4663 -0.348
Shroud of Silent Mist 403 100.0% 28.62 100.0% -0.475 -0.2215 -0.202
Starlight Seeks its Form 546 100.0% 31.83 100.0% 0.492 0.3098 0.274
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1964 100.0% 32.01 100.0% -0.035 -0.4799 -0.407
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3329 100.0% 33.33 100.0% -0.49 -0.3998 0.254
Thunderspeaker 12628 100.02% 33.93 100.03% 0.403 0.3501 0.014
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 7 71.43% 29.29 42.86% -0.631 -0.3813 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 969 100.0% 28.68 100.0% 0.152 0.0288 -0.176
Vital Strength of the Earth 20124 100.71% 24.87 100.34% -0.355 0.2851 -0.377
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 61 33.9% 35.02 78.69% 0.752 1.1298 -0.136
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 202 45.55% 26.84 72.28% -0.331 0.696 -0.785
Volcano Looming High 588 100.0% 29.46 100.0% -0.191 -0.1957 -0.071

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.74%
Lightning's Boon 86.13%
Raging Storm 88.62%
Shatter Homesteads 98.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 42285 22.19 32.5%
II 147983 31.1 72.57%
III 68668 34.71 86.19%
IV 14472 37.97 99.37%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13740
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57927
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 104649
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14223
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 911
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1031
Lose: Adversary condition 11543
Win: Sacrifice victory 832
Lose: Scenario condition 2303
Win: Scenario condition 3333
Lose: Blight pool ran out 61094
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1822

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.429 Win Model: -0.084

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.396 Win Model: 0.221
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 154875 51.86% 24.12 67.17%
2 70943 44.84% 29.64 73.86%
3 23570 37.7% 32.29 79.22%
4 23070 30.13% 35.86 81.36%
5 168 33.57% 33.09 82.74%
6 782 18.14% 34.5 89.13%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)