Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3166 53.14% 26.63 -0.048 64.12% -0.715 -0.1422
Dahan Insurrection 4 3199 34.3% 54.35 -0.008 73.62% -0.343 0.0567
Despicable Theft 2 60 38.33% 35.3 0.017 81.67% -0.357 -0.0749
Elemental Invocation 1 261 51.72% 28.99 -0.034 67.82% -0.768 -0.3287
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9998 18.47% 43.59 -0.022 70.67% -0.905 -0.5396
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1187 48.52% 36.9 -0.033 70.51% -0.562 -0.1207
Rituals of Terror 3 912 59.05% 36.33 -0.064 60.42% -0.819 -0.1748
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 444 82.99% 33.82 -0.095 50.45% -0.806 -0.1647
Second Wave 0 7655 50.03% 28.43 -0.023 72.65% -0.717 -0.2887
The Great River 3 596 48.06% 32.14 -0.056 66.95% -1.425 0.0341
Ward the Shores 2 1157 46.38% 36.5 -0.052 65.34% -0.947 0.0903

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 130479 50.8% 25.9 -0.012 69.05% -1.366 -1.0331
1 Thematic 5773 58.74% 33.19 -0.039 60.19% -1.57 -1.0719
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 42740 45.75% 29.64 0.007 74.54% -0.58 -0.3796
2 Coastline 6321 40.45% 32.8 0.019 77.58% -0.461 -0.3065
2 Fragment 1304 48.19% 26.43 -0.017 69.86% -0.893 -0.4975
2 Heart 581 53.17% 25.78 -0.004 72.12% -0.71 -0.3879
2 Opposite Shores 8506 41.17% 34.89 0.02 78.38% -0.453 -0.2238
2 Thematic 2935 49.01% 40.48 -0.022 64.94% -0.737 -0.6762
2 Top to Top 1485 41.1% 31.86 0.018 77.58% -0.496 -0.3635
3 Coastline 271 26.02% 47.73 0.033 86.35% 0.301 0.2632
3 Other 816 35.24% 29.21 -0.003 77.57% -0.374 0.046
3 Round (Default) 19600 38.67% 33.17 0.015 79.27% 0.148 0.2041
3 Sunrise 95 45.05% 40.57 0.044 84.21% 0.641 0.4468
3 Thematic 760 47.0% 38.9 -0.022 67.63% -0.163 -0.4921
4 Coastline 154 17.53% 51.58 0.025 87.01% 0.307 0.4319
4 Leaf 82 35.06% 30.7 0.001 79.27% 0.523 0.5692
4 Other 637 33.44% 34.68 0.01 82.42% 0.453 0.565
4 Reverse Snake 7 0.0% 38.43 0.035 100.0% 0.445 -0.3375
4 Snake 9 77.78% 31.44 -0.09 55.56% 0.096 0.2507
4 Thematic 3135 33.26% 46.75 -0.025 71.13% 0.243 -0.781
4 Trapezoid (Default) 17380 30.49% 34.75 0.017 82.59% 0.751 0.7854
5 Coastline 5 20.0% 69.6 0.091 100.0% 0.409 0.2802
5 Other 112 44.04% 38.13 0.08 93.75% 2.092 1.8374
5 Thematic 12 41.67% 65.67 0.142 100.0% 1.975 -0.9686

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6266 30.18 -0.126 50.8% -2.405 -0.3317
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5522 32.92 -0.103 55.7% -2.193 -0.2742
All Things Weaken 2161 30.16 -0.131 49.79% -2.463 -0.3038
Back Against the Wall 5560 31.47 -0.117 53.31% -2.345 -0.2507
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5884 27.53 -0.139 48.28% -2.529 -0.3043
Downward Spiral 23084 21.77 -0.117 55.02% -2.49 -0.4688
Erosion of Will 6113 28.72 -0.142 47.82% -2.568 -0.3592
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 819 39.73 0.028 83.52% -0.749 -0.056
Memory Fades to Dust 23411 21.48 -0.137 51.16% -2.661 -0.4429
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2090 30.35 -0.125 50.62% -2.387 -0.3656
Promising Farmlands 6167 26.98 -0.15 46.51% -2.654 -0.4394
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 566 39.31 0.053 88.69% -0.303 0.1085
Thriving Communities 2160 29.95 -0.121 51.57% -2.357 -0.2633
Tipping Point 3211 27.35 -0.148 46.65% -2.61 -0.3848
Unnatural Proliferation 2239 31.19 -0.135 48.82% -2.469 -0.3795
Untended Land Crumbles 2119 30.64 -0.122 51.16% -2.352 -0.2464

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 44636 48.1% 25.63 -0.007 70.73% -0.287 -1.3996
B 47394 45.57% 27.54 -0.001 72.53% -0.259 -1.4667
C 53026 46.27% 29.66 0.01 73.4% -0.033 -1.472
D 41977 44.88% 26.94 0.001 72.89% -0.225 -1.427
E 7392 47.62% 34.31 0.009 74.04% -0.079 -1.3908
F 11558 45.17% 32.75 0.007 74.7% -0.152 -1.4179
G 13114 44.82% 34.16 0.007 73.91% -0.124 -1.3809
H 10557 46.62% 31.74 0.006 74.49% -0.157 -1.4233
East 2533 49.82% 40.58 -0.031 63.76% -0.427 -1.4079
Northeast 2890 52.9% 38.57 -0.031 62.77% -0.412 -1.3427
Northwest 3190 42.69% 43.17 -0.018 69.37% -0.347 -1.346
Southeast 376 46.24% 36.63 -0.019 68.35% -0.516 -1.5417
Southwest 358 57.58% 30.64 -0.056 58.66% -0.767 -1.3874
West 2535 51.08% 36.16 -0.052 60.32% -0.745 -1.4695

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 32972 0.0% 16.26 -0.094 58.25% -2.345 -0.2911
Not Using Events or Tokens 94026 46.08% 21.33 -0.011 70.04% -0.204 0.014
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10533 10.29% 37.66 0.077 93.86% 1.344 0.6504
Start of Game Growth 13713 14.59% 37.05 0.066 91.05% 0.758 0.295
Unlimited Undo 28200 32.89% 31.46 0.049 84.55% 0.51 0.0894
Using Tokens but Not Events 22397 33.38% 30.63 0.03 82.07% 0.111 0.0582

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 19946 31.72% 32.33 0.015 80.34% -0.113 0.0195
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5781 51.0% 28.94 -0.015 72.63% -0.345 -0.1169
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4181 34.11% 34.57 0.016 80.89% 0.016 -0.0698
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4628 31.92% 34.39 0.031 84.4% 0.194 -0.1788
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3909 36.58% 35.51 0.018 79.87% 0.149 -0.1111
Fractured Days Split the Sky 962 38.07% 40.62 0.026 81.7% 0.149 0.5173
Heart of the Wildfire 5009 55.45% 31.6 -0.015 71.71% -0.136 0.2139
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13549 36.52% 41.1 0.027 80.46% 0.293 -0.0113
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1623 43.07% 37.57 0.006 77.26% 0.006 -0.267
Many Minds Move as One 1036 40.0% 34.74 0.029 83.2% 0.25 -0.2645
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 15823 37.85% 38.07 0.027 80.19% 0.306 0.1101
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3719 40.21% 33.26 0.005 77.79% -0.098 -0.052
River Surges in Sunlight 30350 34.73% 34.68 0.02 79.54% 0.058 0.2099
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9284 36.62% 38.33 0.017 79.39% 0.123 0.2668
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10282 47.12% 26.26 -0.009 73.89% -0.261 0.1796
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6040 33.68% 36.38 0.011 79.75% -0.102 -0.1734
Shroud of Silent Mist 343 53.59% 32.14 0.005 76.68% 0.004 -0.016
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2266 48.43% 33.38 -0.017 71.45% -0.304 -0.3245
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2971 35.94% 35.83 0.016 80.85% -0.004 0.1985
Thunderspeaker 11089 40.66% 34.27 -0.005 74.78% -0.171 -0.1194
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1200 61.86% 31.48 -0.028 67.58% -0.23 -0.222
Vital Strength of the Earth 16757 35.49% 25.25 -0.013 74.92% -0.5 0.3704
Volcano Looming High 644 46.51% 36.92 0.018 79.35% 0.155 0.1319

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 95.14%
Lightning's Boon 87.48%
Raging Storm 87.96%
Shatter Homesteads 98.71%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 34859 22.34 32.57%
II 125433 30.81 72.03%
III 64696 34.31 86.56%
IV 18213 37.5 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7825
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 39999
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 62842
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14187
Lose: Invader deck ran out 895
Lose: Adversary condition 11381
Win: Sacrifice victory 706
Lose: Scenario condition 2313
Win: Scenario condition 3110
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51203
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1586

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.619 Win Model: -0.128

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: -0.503
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 136265 51.18% 26.21 68.67%
2 63923 44.76% 31.1 74.87%
3 21570 38.67% 33.47 78.94%
4 21443 30.97% 36.62 80.94%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.11 Win Model: -1.252
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 210913 31.28 75.17%
Power Progression 32288 14.59 53.49%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)