Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3273 53.22% 26.59 -0.047 64.34% -0.708 -0.1383
Dahan Insurrection 4 3348 34.09% 54.22 -0.009 73.54% -0.366 0.032
Despicable Theft 2 83 42.17% 35.71 0.024 81.93% -0.161 0.1082
Elemental Invocation 1 290 51.03% 29.2 -0.032 68.28% -0.742 -0.2773
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10419 18.33% 43.69 -0.022 70.93% -0.903 -0.5361
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1217 49.3% 36.73 -0.036 69.68% -0.573 -0.1282
Rituals of Terror 3 947 58.33% 36.5 -0.061 61.14% -0.799 -0.1543
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 455 82.96% 33.96 -0.094 50.77% -0.793 -0.1481
Second Wave 0 7918 49.76% 28.5 -0.022 72.86% -0.703 -0.2738
The Great River 3 669 48.5% 32.34 -0.054 67.12% -1.39 0.0739
Ward the Shores 2 1191 46.31% 36.57 -0.052 65.24% -0.943 0.0907

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 136251 50.89% 25.96 -0.012 69.05% -1.359 -1.1862
1 Thematic 5951 58.92% 33.02 -0.04 60.23% -1.578 -1.2167
2 Archipelago 17 41.18% 33.94 0.042 88.24% -0.06 0.167
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 44391 45.76% 29.64 0.007 74.57% -0.549 -0.498
2 Coastline 6702 40.48% 32.89 0.019 77.69% -0.429 -0.4213
2 Fragment 1349 48.47% 26.35 -0.018 69.61% -0.88 -0.6238
2 Heart 605 52.94% 25.82 -0.006 71.9% -0.706 -0.5644
2 Opposite Shores 8894 41.0% 34.6 0.019 78.27% -0.436 -0.3458
2 Thematic 3025 48.91% 40.5 -0.021 65.26% -0.719 -0.7605
2 Top to Top 1549 41.13% 31.88 0.017 77.4% -0.474 -0.5044
3 Archipelago 10 30.0% 41.5 -0.018 70.0% -0.389 0.6924
3 Coastline 285 26.15% 46.95 0.031 85.96% 0.279 0.0805
3 Other 863 34.92% 29.32 -0.001 77.98% -0.302 -0.1281
3 Round (Default) 20360 38.62% 33.21 0.015 79.35% 0.197 0.1229
3 Sunrise 98 44.68% 40.11 0.039 83.67% 0.607 0.3304
3 Thematic 790 47.75% 38.91 -0.021 67.72% -0.098 -0.4995
4 Archipelago 5 60.0% 42.8 -0.076 60.0% 0.089 0.5975
4 Coastline 165 18.18% 51.32 0.023 86.67% 0.372 0.422
4 Leaf 85 36.25% 31.39 0.003 80.0% 0.659 0.631
4 Other 670 33.18% 35.16 0.012 82.84% 0.554 0.44
4 Reverse Snake 7 0.0% 38.43 0.035 100.0% 0.46 -0.3946
4 Snake 9 77.78% 31.44 -0.09 55.56% 0.135 0.189
4 Thematic 3238 33.2% 46.98 -0.023 71.4% 0.319 -0.7658
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18047 30.44% 34.86 0.017 82.6% 0.807 0.7205
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 35.0 0.049 100.0% 0.049 0.9253
5 Coastline 5 20.0% 69.6 0.089 100.0% 0.424 0.225
5 Other 128 45.53% 39.18 0.062 89.84% 1.744 1.1406
5 Thematic 17 41.18% 62.29 0.103 94.12% 1.829 -0.9337
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 0.076 100.0% 0.037 0.7694

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6526 30.25 -0.125 50.98% -2.403 -0.3295
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5751 32.88 -0.103 55.75% -2.199 -0.2809
All Things Weaken 2391 29.99 -0.132 49.56% -2.489 -0.3186
Back Against the Wall 5785 31.49 -0.117 53.41% -2.347 -0.2561
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6144 27.52 -0.139 48.37% -2.534 -0.3088
Downward Spiral 23976 21.72 -0.117 54.95% -2.497 -0.4739
Erosion of Will 6345 28.77 -0.141 48.07% -2.562 -0.3531
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 888 40.09 0.03 83.78% -0.723 -0.0367
Memory Fades to Dust 24296 21.49 -0.137 51.24% -2.658 -0.4397
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2295 30.53 -0.123 51.11% -2.375 -0.3513
Promising Farmlands 6390 27.03 -0.15 46.57% -2.654 -0.4397
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 606 39.52 0.052 88.78% -0.318 0.0915
Thriving Communities 2343 29.78 -0.122 51.52% -2.376 -0.2811
Tipping Point 3211 27.35 -0.148 46.65% -2.616 -0.3896
Unnatural Proliferation 2441 31.27 -0.132 49.32% -2.457 -0.3704
Untended Land Crumbles 2308 30.5 -0.123 51.0% -2.373 -0.2677

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 46367 48.12% 25.65 -0.008 70.7% -0.29 -1.0502
B 49153 45.66% 27.51 -0.001 72.5% -0.263 -1.1203
C 55128 46.26% 29.75 0.011 73.52% -0.03 -1.1186
D 43513 44.91% 26.97 0.001 72.86% -0.228 -1.0786
E 8012 47.84% 34.29 0.009 74.14% -0.087 -1.0525
F 12276 45.3% 32.69 0.006 74.63% -0.168 -1.0819
G 13976 44.97% 34.01 0.005 73.68% -0.15 -1.0549
H 11203 46.72% 31.72 0.006 74.5% -0.169 -1.0832
East 2599 49.69% 40.69 -0.029 64.33% -0.403 -1.0528
Northeast 2990 52.7% 38.81 -0.029 63.18% -0.39 -0.9886
Northwest 3266 42.93% 43.06 -0.019 69.17% -0.351 -1.0211
Southeast 393 46.39% 36.21 -0.021 67.94% -0.535 -1.2406
Southwest 375 57.8% 30.76 -0.056 58.93% -0.76 -1.0332
West 2605 51.03% 36.26 -0.052 60.54% -0.736 -1.1351

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 34188 0.0% 16.23 -0.094 58.13% -2.355 -0.2984
Not Using Events or Tokens 97746 46.07% 21.33 -0.011 69.99% -0.204 0.0119
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10844 10.23% 37.63 0.077 93.89% 1.337 0.6497
Start of Game Growth 14183 14.58% 37.01 0.066 91.08% 0.758 0.2879
Unlimited Undo 29590 33.22% 31.55 0.049 84.59% 0.534 0.1143
Using Tokens but Not Events 23375 33.13% 30.65 0.03 82.22% 0.111 0.0591

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 20584 31.81% 32.33 0.015 80.31% -0.122 -0.0079
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5952 50.99% 28.87 -0.015 72.7% -0.355 -0.1487
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4389 34.02% 34.49 0.017 81.29% 0.029 -0.0768
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4857 32.06% 34.25 0.031 84.5% 0.198 -0.195
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4090 36.74% 35.48 0.018 79.98% 0.147 -0.1439
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1017 38.21% 40.71 0.028 82.01% 0.18 0.5339
Heart of the Wildfire 5140 55.61% 31.64 -0.015 71.65% -0.141 0.187
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13982 36.45% 41.18 0.027 80.55% 0.286 -0.044
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1874 43.37% 37.68 0.008 77.64% 0.051 -0.2368
Many Minds Move as One 1117 40.34% 35.02 0.03 83.44% 0.276 -0.2543
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 16423 37.62% 38.17 0.027 80.31% 0.301 0.0868
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3897 40.13% 33.16 0.006 78.09% -0.096 -0.0723
River Surges in Sunlight 31461 34.63% 34.74 0.019 79.46% 0.043 0.1739
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9570 36.53% 38.43 0.017 79.5% 0.122 0.2371
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10680 46.97% 26.31 -0.01 73.84% -0.271 0.146
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6162 33.84% 36.43 0.011 79.8% -0.106 -0.2035
Shifting Memory of Ages 246 44.44% 37.68 0.017 78.86% 0.075 0.1659
Shroud of Silent Mist 451 53.09% 32.12 0.0 76.27% -0.122 -0.0923
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2420 48.34% 33.69 -0.016 71.82% -0.286 -0.3347
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3135 35.88% 35.82 0.017 81.21% 0.008 0.1818
Thunderspeaker 11393 40.41% 34.31 -0.005 74.87% -0.179 -0.1466
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1267 60.94% 31.52 -0.026 68.27% -0.223 -0.2409
Vital Strength of the Earth 17416 35.38% 25.29 -0.013 74.84% -0.507 0.3466
Volcano Looming High 738 46.41% 36.73 0.016 79.0% 0.106 0.0868

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 95.13%
Lightning's Boon 87.5%
Raging Storm 88.01%
Shatter Homesteads 98.71%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36177 22.35 32.45%
II 130474 30.84 71.97%
III 67534 34.35 86.56%
IV 19336 37.52 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8213
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 42407
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 66309
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15280
Lose: Invader deck ran out 937
Lose: Adversary condition 11828
Win: Sacrifice victory 734
Lose: Scenario condition 2394
Win: Scenario condition 3238
Lose: Blight pool ran out 53376
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1651

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.633 Win Model: -0.127

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: -0.518
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 142229 51.27% 26.26 68.68%
2 66594 44.75% 31.08 74.91%
3 22427 38.6% 33.49 79.04%
4 22271 30.93% 36.76 80.98%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.11 Win Model: -1.242
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 219825 31.31 75.2%
Power Progression 33696 14.57 53.52%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)