Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3316 53.25% 26.73 -0.047 64.48% -0.693 -0.1273
Dahan Insurrection 4 3405 33.84% 54.29 -0.009 73.77% -0.361 0.0395
Despicable Theft 2 88 44.32% 35.47 0.024 81.82% -0.144 0.1296
Elemental Invocation 1 297 51.18% 29.08 -0.031 68.35% -0.729 -0.2267
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10590 18.3% 43.7 -0.022 70.91% -0.9 -0.5352
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1227 49.38% 36.72 -0.036 69.68% -0.568 -0.1218
Rituals of Terror 3 968 57.99% 36.57 -0.059 61.67% -0.782 -0.1365
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 457 82.6% 34.0 -0.094 50.77% -0.797 -0.1507
Second Wave 0 8020 49.84% 28.49 -0.022 72.82% -0.705 -0.2752
The Great River 3 693 49.13% 32.08 -0.056 66.52% -1.399 0.0746
Ward the Shores 2 1204 46.39% 36.69 -0.053 65.2% -0.944 0.0876

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 138396 50.85% 26.0 -0.012 69.05% -1.24 -1.1538
1 Thematic 6019 58.83% 33.03 -0.039 60.29% -1.462 -1.1855
2 Archipelago 22 36.36% 37.0 0.055 90.91% 0.139 0.1454
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 45027 45.82% 29.68 0.007 74.61% -0.504 -0.4781
2 Coastline 6820 40.48% 32.9 0.019 77.7% -0.387 -0.4119
2 Fragment 1370 48.37% 26.44 -0.018 69.71% -0.836 -0.6135
2 Heart 613 52.43% 25.8 -0.006 71.94% -0.676 -0.576
2 Opposite Shores 9022 41.06% 34.6 0.019 78.28% -0.392 -0.3267
2 Thematic 3071 48.96% 40.4 -0.021 65.22% -0.687 -0.7541
2 Top to Top 1567 41.13% 31.93 0.018 77.47% -0.427 -0.4961
3 Archipelago 11 36.36% 45.64 -0.002 72.73% -0.106 0.698
3 Coastline 296 27.55% 46.29 0.028 84.8% 0.197 0.0467
3 Other 886 35.08% 29.26 -0.001 77.99% -0.341 -0.1679
3 Round (Default) 20772 38.49% 33.25 0.015 79.3% 0.155 0.1161
3 Sunrise 98 44.68% 40.11 0.039 83.67% 0.57 0.31
3 Thematic 794 47.63% 38.93 -0.021 67.76% -0.139 -0.5054
4 Archipelago 8 37.5% 42.38 -0.027 75.0% 0.141 0.689
4 Coastline 181 18.23% 51.27 0.02 85.64% 0.202 0.3218
4 Leaf 86 35.8% 31.88 0.005 80.23% 0.564 0.6359
4 Other 677 33.13% 35.22 0.012 82.87% 0.452 0.3828
4 Reverse Snake 7 0.0% 38.43 0.035 100.0% 0.433 -0.369
4 Snake 9 77.78% 31.44 -0.09 55.56% 0.073 0.1992
4 Thematic 3277 33.34% 47.03 -0.024 71.28% 0.199 -0.7977
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18311 30.42% 34.91 0.017 82.63% 0.694 0.7025
5 Archipelago 3 0.0% 33.67 -0.09 66.67% -0.625 0.5348
5 Coastline 5 20.0% 69.6 0.089 100.0% 0.393 0.203
5 Other 143 46.38% 42.52 0.069 90.91% 1.821 1.36
5 Thematic 17 41.18% 62.29 0.103 94.12% 1.744 -0.6478
6 Archipelago 2 50.0% 66.0 0.139 100.0% 0.618 0.9834

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6624 30.24 -0.125 50.98% -2.405 -0.3357
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5828 32.92 -0.103 55.83% -2.194 -0.2814
All Things Weaken 2477 30.12 -0.131 49.78% -2.478 -0.3183
Back Against the Wall 5861 31.48 -0.117 53.37% -2.349 -0.2623
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6255 27.54 -0.139 48.35% -2.534 -0.3121
Downward Spiral 24259 21.74 -0.118 54.89% -2.498 -0.4762
Erosion of Will 6426 28.8 -0.141 48.09% -2.559 -0.3518
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 916 40.15 0.028 83.41% -0.749 -0.0698
Memory Fades to Dust 24635 21.53 -0.137 51.25% -2.657 -0.4426
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2368 30.46 -0.125 50.89% -2.386 -0.3651
Promising Farmlands 6462 27.12 -0.149 46.75% -2.647 -0.439
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 623 39.55 0.052 88.76% -0.322 0.0897
Thriving Communities 2421 29.81 -0.122 51.47% -2.379 -0.2912
Tipping Point 3211 27.35 -0.148 46.65% -2.616 -0.3909
Unnatural Proliferation 2535 31.42 -0.132 49.43% -2.448 -0.3668
Untended Land Crumbles 2407 30.59 -0.124 50.98% -2.376 -0.2737

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 46973 48.08% 25.68 -0.008 70.71% -0.289 -0.9771
B 49872 45.68% 27.54 -0.001 72.49% -0.261 -1.0446
C 55997 46.23% 29.78 0.011 73.53% -0.029 -1.0418
D 44068 44.92% 27.0 0.001 72.86% -0.228 -1.0056
E 8295 48.04% 34.35 0.008 74.09% -0.085 -0.9797
F 12549 45.22% 32.71 0.006 74.59% -0.172 -1.0128
G 14281 44.86% 34.02 0.005 73.7% -0.149 -0.9808
H 11444 46.56% 31.77 0.006 74.59% -0.169 -1.0076
East 2624 49.57% 40.69 -0.029 64.29% -0.405 -0.9812
Northeast 3034 52.51% 38.91 -0.029 63.25% -0.382 -0.9069
Northwest 3294 43.03% 43.06 -0.019 69.13% -0.35 -0.9451
Southeast 404 46.62% 36.05 -0.025 67.08% -0.576 -1.205
Southwest 382 57.26% 30.75 -0.055 59.16% -0.757 -0.9553
West 2630 51.22% 36.27 -0.051 60.65% -0.723 -1.0502

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 34600 0.0% 16.23 -0.095 58.09% -2.357 -0.3044
Not Using Events or Tokens 99074 46.03% 21.35 -0.011 69.99% -0.201 0.0135
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11015 10.15% 37.6 0.077 93.85% 1.331 0.6452
Start of Game Growth 14416 14.61% 37.01 0.066 91.07% 0.759 0.2905
Unlimited Undo 30125 33.2% 31.6 0.05 84.66% 0.542 0.1193
Using Tokens but Not Events 23776 33.01% 30.7 0.03 82.28% 0.113 0.0616

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 20864 31.8% 32.37 0.015 80.3% -0.124 -0.0193
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6018 51.03% 28.82 -0.016 72.65% -0.357 -0.1587
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4484 34.15% 34.38 0.016 81.11% 0.011 -0.1023
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4947 32.05% 34.23 0.031 84.6% 0.21 -0.1937
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4174 36.7% 35.52 0.018 80.0% 0.152 -0.1531
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1045 38.43% 40.91 0.028 82.2% 0.201 0.5496
Heart of the Wildfire 5188 55.59% 31.65 -0.015 71.67% -0.141 0.1773
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 14150 36.37% 41.23 0.027 80.59% 0.288 -0.0547
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1999 42.65% 38.1 0.009 77.79% 0.042 -0.2452
Many Minds Move as One 1148 40.04% 35.06 0.03 83.45% 0.279 -0.2542
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 16724 37.47% 38.32 0.027 80.39% 0.307 0.0822
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3977 40.14% 33.2 0.006 78.02% -0.093 -0.0785
River Surges in Sunlight 31930 34.61% 34.79 0.019 79.45% 0.041 0.1617
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9684 36.64% 38.51 0.017 79.52% 0.131 0.2339
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 10833 46.97% 26.33 -0.01 73.84% -0.272 0.133
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6229 33.89% 36.5 0.012 79.85% -0.094 -0.2063
Shifting Memory of Ages 338 43.88% 37.54 0.021 80.18% 0.137 0.262
Shroud of Silent Mist 483 52.99% 31.79 -0.001 75.98% -0.14 -0.0838
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2491 48.02% 33.73 -0.016 72.02% -0.277 -0.3371
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3190 35.75% 35.8 0.016 81.22% 0.001 0.1617
Thunderspeaker 11540 40.44% 34.29 -0.005 74.84% -0.181 -0.1571
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1291 60.89% 31.51 -0.026 68.32% -0.223 -0.2511
Vital Strength of the Earth 17659 35.43% 25.31 -0.013 74.87% -0.502 0.3418
Volcano Looming High 772 46.83% 36.57 0.013 78.24% 0.085 0.096

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 95.14%
Lightning's Boon 87.54%
Raging Storm 88.0%
Shatter Homesteads 98.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36705 22.37 32.48%
II 132375 30.88 71.95%
III 68655 34.39 86.53%
IV 19777 37.55 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43339
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 67608
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15715
Lose: Invader deck ran out 952
Lose: Adversary condition 12058
Win: Sacrifice victory 743
Lose: Scenario condition 2431
Win: Scenario condition 3296
Lose: Blight pool ran out 54153
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1668

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.636 Win Model: -0.127

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: -0.442
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 144449 51.23% 26.3 68.69%
2 67571 44.78% 31.11 74.94%
3 22889 38.51% 33.54 78.98%
4 22603 30.91% 36.82 81.03%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.11 Win Model: -1.241
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 223347 31.35 75.2%
Power Progression 34165 14.6 53.56%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)