Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Lightning's Swift Strike

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
257512	46.34%	29.13	72.33%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	126090	34.68%	19.83	0.000	78.27%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	943	37.91%	29.8	0.039	84.94%	-0.275	0.0145
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	654	40.74%	34.11	0.03	82.87%	-0.335	0.0792
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	751	63.86%	37.48	-0.017	71.24%	-0.757	0.1264
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	875	69.26%	36.94	-0.063	61.71%	-1.233	0.009
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	363	91.16%	36.94	-0.133	45.18%	-1.604	-0.1079
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	160	94.38%	34.48	-0.195	31.25%	-2.059	-0.1204
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1174	92.83%	31.84	-0.249	20.87%	-2.845	-0.802
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	8578	40.57%	24.25	0.034	82.28%	-0.155	-0.1142
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	5506	45.68%	28.5	0.03	81.18%	-0.137	-0.155

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	3316	53.25%	26.73	-0.047	64.48%	-0.693	-0.1273
Dahan Insurrection	4	3405	33.84%	54.29	-0.009	73.77%	-0.361	0.0395
Despicable Theft	2	88	44.32%	35.47	0.024	81.82%	-0.144	0.1296
Elemental Invocation	1	297	51.18%	29.08	-0.031	68.35%	-0.729	-0.2267
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	10590	18.3%	43.7	-0.022	70.91%	-0.9	-0.5352
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1227	49.38%	36.72	-0.036	69.68%	-0.568	-0.1218
Rituals of Terror	3	968	57.99%	36.57	-0.059	61.67%	-0.782	-0.1365
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	457	82.6%	34.0	-0.094	50.77%	-0.797	-0.1507
Second Wave	0	8020	49.84%	28.49	-0.022	72.82%	-0.705	-0.2752
The Great River	3	693	49.13%	32.08	-0.056	66.52%	-1.399	0.0746
Ward the Shores	2	1204	46.39%	36.69	-0.053	65.2%	-0.944	0.0876

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	138396	50.85%	26.0	-0.012	69.05%	-1.24	-1.1538
1	Thematic	6019	58.83%	33.03	-0.039	60.29%	-1.462	-1.1855
2	Archipelago	22	36.36%	37.0	0.055	90.91%	0.139	0.1454
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	45027	45.82%	29.68	0.007	74.61%	-0.504	-0.4781
2	Coastline	6820	40.48%	32.9	0.019	77.7%	-0.387	-0.4119
2	Fragment	1370	48.37%	26.44	-0.018	69.71%	-0.836	-0.6135
2	Heart	613	52.43%	25.8	-0.006	71.94%	-0.676	-0.576
2	Opposite Shores	9022	41.06%	34.6	0.019	78.28%	-0.392	-0.3267
2	Thematic	3071	48.96%	40.4	-0.021	65.22%	-0.687	-0.7541
2	Top to Top	1567	41.13%	31.93	0.018	77.47%	-0.427	-0.4961

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	6624	30.24	-0.125	50.98%	-2.405	-0.3357
Aid From Lesser Spirits	5828	32.92	-0.103	55.83%	-2.194	-0.2814
All Things Weaken	2477	30.12	-0.131	49.78%	-2.478	-0.3183
Back Against the Wall	5861	31.48	-0.117	53.37%	-2.349	-0.2623
Disintegrating Ecosystem	6255	27.54	-0.139	48.35%	-2.534	-0.3121
Downward Spiral	24259	21.74	-0.118	54.89%	-2.498	-0.4762
Erosion of Will	6426	28.8	-0.141	48.09%	-2.559	-0.3518
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	916	40.15	0.028	83.41%	-0.749	-0.0698
Memory Fades to Dust	24635	21.53	-0.137	51.25%	-2.657	-0.4426
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2368	30.46	-0.125	50.89%	-2.386	-0.3651
Promising Farmlands	6462	27.12	-0.149	46.75%	-2.647	-0.439
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	623	39.55	0.052	88.76%	-0.322	0.0897
Thriving Communities	2421	29.81	-0.122	51.47%	-2.379	-0.2912
Tipping Point	3211	27.35	-0.148	46.65%	-2.616	-0.3909
Unnatural Proliferation	2535	31.42	-0.132	49.43%	-2.448	-0.3668
Untended Land Crumbles	2407	30.59	-0.124	50.98%	-2.376	-0.2737

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	46973	48.08%	25.68	-0.008	70.71%	-0.289	-0.9771
B	49872	45.68%	27.54	-0.001	72.49%	-0.261	-1.0446
C	55997	46.23%	29.78	0.011	73.53%	-0.029	-1.0418
D	44068	44.92%	27.0	0.001	72.86%	-0.228	-1.0056
E	8295	48.04%	34.35	0.008	74.09%	-0.085	-0.9797
East	2624	49.57%	40.69	-0.029	64.29%	-0.405	-0.9812
F	12549	45.22%	32.71	0.006	74.59%	-0.172	-1.0128
G	14281	44.86%	34.02	0.005	73.7%	-0.149	-0.9808
H	11444	46.56%	31.77	0.006	74.59%	-0.169	-1.0076
Northeast	3034	52.51%	38.91	-0.029	63.25%	-0.382	-0.9069
Northwest	3294	43.03%	43.06	-0.019	69.13%	-0.35	-0.9451
Southeast	404	46.62%	36.05	-0.025	67.08%	-0.576	-1.205
Southwest	382	57.26%	30.75	-0.055	59.16%	-0.757	-0.9553
West	2630	51.22%	36.27	-0.051	60.65%	-0.723	-1.0502

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	34600	0.0%	16.23	-0.095	58.09%	-2.357	-0.3044
Not Using Events or Tokens	99074	46.03%	21.35	-0.011	69.99%	-0.201	0.0135
Skip Initial Invader Actions	11015	10.15%	37.6	0.077	93.85%	1.331	0.6452
Start of Game Growth	14416	14.61%	37.01	0.066	91.07%	0.759	0.2905
Unlimited Undo	30125	33.2%	31.6	0.05	84.66%	0.542	0.1193
Using Tokens but Not Events	23776	33.01%	30.7	0.03	82.28%	0.113	0.0616

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	20864	31.8%	32.37	0.015	80.3%	-0.124	-0.0193
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	6018	51.03%	28.82	-0.016	72.65%	-0.357	-0.1587
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4484	34.15%	34.38	0.016	81.11%	0.011	-0.1023
Eyes Watch From the Trees	4947	32.05%	34.23	0.031	84.6%	0.21	-0.1937
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	4174	36.7%	35.52	0.018	80.0%	0.152	-0.1531
Fractured Days Split the Sky	1045	38.43%	40.91	0.028	82.2%	0.201	0.5496
Heart of the Wildfire	5188	55.59%	31.65	-0.015	71.67%	-0.141	0.1773
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	14150	36.37%	41.23	0.027	80.59%	0.288	-0.0547
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1999	42.65%	38.1	0.009	77.79%	0.042	-0.2452
Many Minds Move as One	1148	40.04%	35.06	0.03	83.45%	0.279	-0.2542

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	986	3.584	29.675	69.47%
Animated Wrackroot	5749	4.978	39.908	82.59%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	1346	4.156	35.247	79.42%
Birds Cry Warning	802	4.54	36.405	77.56%
Blood Draws Predators	2727	5.235	40.334	81.41%
Call of the Dahan Ways	6349	2.446	28.849	77.35%
Call To Bloodshed	35153	1.06	21.686	66.08%
Call to Ferocity	5344	5.651	42.434	81.94%
Call to Guard	2727	5.078	39.924	81.7%
Call To Isolation	6295	3.629	33.77	81.19%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	1548	1.79	23.663	71.96%
Angry Bears	398	3.593	32.899	79.15%
Bargains of Power and Protection	147	5.293	38.469	71.43%
Blazing Renewal	1940	4.269	30.168	65.62%
Bloodwrack Plague	452	4.124	33.237	70.35%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	460	3.785	31.55	72.39%
Cleansing Floods	1234	2.127	23.081	63.7%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	847	3.237	29.687	73.79%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	1708	2.948	26.338	69.96%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	226	4.907	32.146	63.72%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning	95.14%
Lightning's Boon	87.54%
Raging Storm	88.0%
Shatter Homesteads	98.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	36705	22.37	32.48%
II	132375	30.88	71.95%
III	68655	34.39	86.53%
IV	19777	37.55	99.48%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	12058
Lose: Blight pool ran out	54153
Lose: Invader deck ran out	952
Lose: Scenario condition	2431
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1668
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	8395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	67608
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	43339
Win: Sacrifice victory	743
Win: Scenario condition	3296
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	15715

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.636 Win Model: -0.127

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	5986	6.83%	29.14	95.74%	85.52%
-2	1954	7.85%	26.53	93.55%	83.88%
-1	3422	18.89%	23.15	86.09%	82.08%
0	110804	35.78%	18.75	76.82%	80.13%
1	19174	39.83%	23.99	82.62%	78.03%
2	11733	41.7%	28.31	82.77%	75.77%
3	10716	46.87%	31.28	76.75%	73.35%
4	12447	50.52%	34.96	75.4%	70.79%
5	8160	50.84%	38.79	72.63%	68.09%
6	13976	61.26%	38.15	65.12%	65.27%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: -0.442

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	144449	51.23%	26.3	68.69%
2	67571	44.78%	31.11	74.94%
3	22889	38.51%	33.54	78.98%
4	22603	30.91%	36.82	81.03%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.11 Win Model: -1.241

Power Progression?	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
Power Progression	34165	14.6	53.56%
Standard	223347	31.35	75.2%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.