Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2905 53.09% 26.73 -0.049 63.92% -0.726 -0.149
Dahan Insurrection 4 2940 34.77% 53.92 -0.009 73.27% -0.338 0.0625
Despicable Theft 2 9 22.22% 35.78 0.039 88.89% -0.14 0.2886
Elemental Invocation 1 156 48.08% 29.56 -0.029 69.23% -0.76 -0.3787
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9231 18.26% 43.47 -0.02 71.06% -0.89 -0.5244
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1113 48.78% 37.2 -0.035 70.08% -0.573 -0.131
Rituals of Terror 3 855 59.6% 36.41 -0.066 59.65% -0.814 -0.1857
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 426 82.31% 33.98 -0.095 50.23% -0.808 -0.1578
Second Wave 0 6983 50.71% 28.28 -0.023 72.23% -0.715 -0.299
The Great River 3 434 44.55% 32.79 -0.058 66.59% -1.479 -0.0075
Ward the Shores 2 1088 47.03% 36.31 -0.053 64.8% -0.93 0.1062

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 117949 50.82% 25.71 -0.012 68.9% -1.325 -0.9661
1 Thematic 5221 58.75% 33.5 -0.038 60.26% -1.46 -0.9558
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 39126 45.65% 29.75 0.008 74.57% -0.538 -0.3421
2 Coastline 5654 40.79% 32.81 0.019 77.36% -0.411 -0.2684
2 Fragment 1210 48.2% 26.4 -0.018 69.34% -0.874 -0.4513
2 Heart 522 53.2% 25.76 -0.004 72.03% -0.665 -0.3725
2 Opposite Shores 7838 41.03% 35.28 0.021 78.32% -0.406 -0.1813
2 Thematic 2734 48.81% 40.66 -0.021 64.89% -0.659 -0.6144
2 Top to Top 1368 40.4% 32.04 0.02 77.92% -0.446 -0.3113
3 Coastline 244 23.55% 48.0 0.03 86.07% 0.213 0.1793
3 Other 693 38.2% 28.79 -0.008 75.61% -0.348 0.0675
3 Round (Default) 17854 39.03% 32.93 0.013 78.74% 0.149 0.1879
3 Sunrise 89 46.51% 41.47 0.044 83.15% 0.653 0.4297
3 Thematic 714 47.23% 39.06 -0.026 66.53% -0.145 -0.5016
4 Coastline 118 17.8% 48.62 0.014 84.75% 0.155 0.3137
4 Leaf 73 33.33% 30.53 -0.005 78.08% 0.382 0.4095
4 Other 547 33.95% 35.35 0.006 81.17% 0.408 0.5212
4 Reverse Snake 6 0.0% 40.67 0.027 100.0% 0.401 -0.3869
4 Snake 9 77.78% 31.44 -0.09 55.56% 0.096 0.2197
4 Thematic 2891 33.27% 46.56 -0.023 71.32% 0.32 -0.7665
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15878 30.29% 34.79 0.017 82.57% 0.763 0.7465
5 Coastline 3 33.33% 63.33 0.095 100.0% 0.318 0.2366
5 Other 96 43.62% 38.66 0.082 93.75% 2.124 1.9053
5 Thematic 8 50.0% 60.0 0.17 100.0% 1.849 -0.9792

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 5756 30.11 -0.127 50.5% -2.405 -0.3344
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5076 32.64 -0.104 55.34% -2.207 -0.2886
All Things Weaken 1794 29.97 -0.134 48.61% -2.484 -0.3289
Back Against the Wall 5122 31.25 -0.119 52.75% -2.36 -0.2636
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5394 27.43 -0.139 48.11% -2.528 -0.304
Downward Spiral 21151 21.84 -0.117 54.97% -2.49 -0.4729
Erosion of Will 5622 28.57 -0.143 47.47% -2.573 -0.3637
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 650 39.12 0.024 82.31% -0.815 -0.1108
Memory Fades to Dust 21489 21.56 -0.137 51.22% -2.656 -0.4407
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1725 30.55 -0.122 51.07% -2.356 -0.3358
Promising Farmlands 5670 26.87 -0.151 46.21% -2.654 -0.441
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 464 39.26 0.053 88.36% -0.296 0.1397
Thriving Communities 1767 29.81 -0.125 50.31% -2.387 -0.2891
Tipping Point 3210 27.36 -0.147 46.67% -2.598 -0.3797
Unnatural Proliferation 1823 31.33 -0.134 48.33% -2.444 -0.366
Untended Land Crumbles 1756 30.94 -0.12 51.14% -2.316 -0.2179

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 40952 47.96% 25.67 -0.007 70.78% -0.276 -1.3659
B 43638 45.6% 27.54 -0.001 72.43% -0.248 -1.4329
C 48173 46.21% 29.59 0.01 73.32% -0.023 -1.4382
D 38490 44.84% 26.92 0.002 72.84% -0.217 -1.3937
E 6090 48.24% 34.23 0.007 73.4% -0.075 -1.3518
F 10108 45.24% 32.72 0.007 74.44% -0.14 -1.3826
G 11500 44.85% 34.32 0.008 73.88% -0.1 -1.3305
H 9240 46.78% 31.62 0.004 73.89% -0.171 -1.4115
East 2357 49.39% 40.79 -0.029 64.15% -0.441 -1.3916
Northeast 2640 53.37% 38.52 -0.032 62.35% -0.453 -1.3431
Northwest 2998 42.59% 42.78 -0.018 69.25% -0.392 -1.3572
Southeast 330 46.32% 37.2 -0.013 69.39% -0.457 -1.459
Southwest 312 58.71% 30.92 -0.051 59.29% -0.735 -1.3436
West 2354 51.18% 36.33 -0.051 60.24% -0.772 -1.4579

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 29826 0.0% 16.21 -0.095 57.99% -2.364 -0.3199
Not Using Events or Tokens 85773 45.95% 21.34 -0.01 70.12% -0.19 0.0292
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9641 10.28% 37.84 0.078 93.88% 1.356 0.6521
Start of Game Growth 12535 14.49% 37.19 0.067 91.04% 0.763 0.3092
Unlimited Undo 25729 32.54% 31.32 0.048 84.49% 0.496 0.084
Using Tokens but Not Events 20233 33.69% 30.73 0.029 81.67% 0.101 0.053

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 18481 31.77% 32.32 0.014 80.08% -0.123 0.0227
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5395 50.73% 29.1 -0.015 72.46% -0.351 -0.1139
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3753 34.29% 34.83 0.017 80.71% 0.046 -0.0394
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4117 31.62% 34.58 0.03 83.97% 0.18 -0.1854
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3504 36.77% 35.34 0.015 78.97% 0.105 -0.1393
Fractured Days Split the Sky 811 38.31% 41.22 0.029 81.63% 0.17 0.5157
Heart of the Wildfire 4767 55.28% 31.68 -0.014 71.76% -0.125 0.2255
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 12478 37.05% 40.92 0.027 80.2% 0.297 -0.0024
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1142 44.84% 37.94 0.002 75.31% -0.019 -0.3379
Many Minds Move as One 854 39.74% 35.09 0.03 83.14% 0.248 -0.2721
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 14519 38.19% 37.84 0.026 79.92% 0.299 0.1045
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3371 40.15% 33.37 0.006 77.66% -0.085 -0.036
River Surges in Sunlight 27660 34.77% 34.76 0.02 79.52% 0.059 0.221
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 8686 36.6% 38.31 0.016 79.12% 0.119 0.2689
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9365 47.54% 26.28 -0.01 73.51% -0.276 0.174
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5671 33.52% 36.39 0.012 79.76% -0.101 -0.1683
Shroud of Silent Mist 40 52.63% 31.13 0.019 80.0% 0.139 0.095
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1957 49.35% 33.34 -0.018 70.77% -0.322 -0.3415
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2652 35.76% 35.73 0.015 80.43% -0.037 0.1788
Thunderspeaker 10295 40.61% 34.33 -0.005 74.7% -0.177 -0.1195
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1058 62.45% 31.26 -0.027 67.58% -0.212 -0.1923
Vital Strength of the Earth 15435 35.2% 25.3 -0.012 75.07% -0.502 0.3689
Volcano Looming High 374 47.68% 36.89 0.017 78.61% 0.125 0.0632

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 95.16%
Lightning's Boon 87.53%
Raging Storm 87.91%
Shatter Homesteads 98.72%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31975 22.34 32.85%
II 114624 30.75 72.06%
III 58335 34.26 86.5%
IV 15913 37.47 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6977
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 34557
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 55301
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11905
Lose: Invader deck ran out 797
Lose: Adversary condition 10367
Win: Sacrifice victory 636
Lose: Scenario condition 2107
Win: Scenario condition 2858
Lose: Blight pool ran out 46712
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1476

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.586 Win Model: -0.131

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.007 Win Model: -0.486
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 123180 51.2% 26.04 68.54%
2 58500 44.69% 31.25 74.85%
3 19616 39.11% 33.26 78.34%
4 19551 30.85% 36.61 80.87%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.11 Win Model: -1.24
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 191516 31.2 75.03%
Power Progression 29331 14.6 53.49%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)