Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2548 45.28% 29.69 -3.777 64.01% -0.985 -0.4086
Dahan Insurrection 4 3382 27.12% 55.68 8.966 79.3% -0.24 0.1608
Despicable Theft 2 12 25.0% 39.5 1.923 100.0% 0.416 0.8449
Elemental Invocation 1 141 46.81% 33.6 -1.551 79.43% -0.165 0.2164
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 19846 15.63% 49.65 5.038 77.57% -0.239 0.127
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1780 38.34% 42.48 1.879 79.44% -0.483 -0.0418
Rituals of Terror 3 906 38.68% 44.4 4.565 78.81% -0.27 0.3581
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1831 70.36% 32.26 -0.285 63.63% -0.879 -0.2295
Second Wave 0 7204 47.93% 29.68 -2.579 74.51% -0.891 -0.475
The Great River 3 227 40.97% 36.67 0.167 75.77% -1.256 0.2152
Ward the Shores 2 1446 36.61% 37.98 0.71 72.27% -0.866 0.1702

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 130806 42.51% 37.69 0.225 77.88% -1.407 -1.0479
1 Thematic 6872 47.66% 37.91 0.245 67.81% -1.819 -1.315
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 30216 43.64% 35.22 -0.68 77.28% -0.841 -0.6455
2 Coastline 4885 38.96% 36.21 -0.641 79.22% -0.83 -0.687
2 Fragment 884 48.05% 32.48 -1.709 75.9% -0.98 -0.558
2 Heart 441 49.19% 30.2 -2.789 70.75% -1.254 -0.961
2 Opposite Shores 6602 39.35% 35.41 -0.927 78.01% -0.898 -0.6729
2 Thematic 3579 37.07% 40.03 0.535 74.77% -1.139 -1.0939
2 Top to Top 981 42.18% 36.74 0.002 80.43% -0.634 -0.4998
3 Coastline 198 30.3% 47.91 3.761 86.36% 0.412 0.379
3 Other 816 38.74% 37.01 -0.159 84.44% 0.051 0.4663
3 Round (Default) 18848 34.38% 36.2 -0.342 82.04% 0.028 0.0671
3 Sunrise 109 28.44% 37.45 0.076 86.24% 0.101 -0.1225
3 Thematic 934 34.98% 36.08 -0.866 76.98% -0.435 -0.7915
4 Coastline 105 22.12% 50.65 4.8 95.24% 1.668 1.8268
4 Leaf 81 43.21% 35.51 -0.541 81.48% 0.832 0.86
4 Other 717 29.93% 38.76 0.434 88.98% 1.091 1.2038
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 41.33 1.679 100.0% 0.225 -0.5637
4 Snake 11 72.73% 29.36 -3.787 45.45% -0.131 -0.0071
4 Thematic 3991 28.57% 48.46 3.086 78.58% 0.49 -0.5963
4 Trapezoid (Default) 13389 31.52% 40.1 0.521 81.18% 0.724 0.7068
5 Coastline 2 50.0% 60.5 8.299 100.0% 0.345 0.2632
5 Other 147 37.76% 41.3 2.064 95.92% 2.331 2.1128
5 Thematic 17 64.71% 48.88 5.837 94.12% 2.133 -0.6951

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 8748 35.0 -2.14 60.13% -1.627 0.4431
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7611 36.3 -1.484 60.81% -1.605 0.3129
All Things Weaken 2589 35.95 -1.962 57.44% -1.711 0.4439
Back Against the Wall 7293 35.17 -2.016 58.22% -1.715 0.381
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8159 31.41 -3.905 54.71% -1.867 0.3571
Downward Spiral 11005 33.27 -2.542 65.17% -1.505 0.5118
Erosion of Will 8412 33.15 -3.047 56.09% -1.845 0.3642
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1270 42.47 1.449 80.71% -0.488 0.216
Memory Fades to Dust 11199 32.14 -3.125 61.1% -1.728 0.4872
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2505 36.0 -1.955 58.44% -1.623 0.3972
Promising Farmlands 8741 32.22 -3.541 55.62% -1.845 0.3672
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 814 41.68 1.242 83.66% -0.355 0.081
Thriving Communities 2481 35.72 -2.043 58.89% -1.615 0.4824
Tipping Point 4892 32.58 -3.294 56.15% -1.825 0.3933
Unnatural Proliferation 2625 37.6 -1.072 60.11% -1.55 0.5279
Untended Land Crumbles 2570 35.48 -2.263 57.94% -1.662 0.4366

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 34134 44.02% 35.46 -1.117 74.82% -0.149 -1.239
B 36961 43.16% 35.92 -0.62 77.14% -0.035 -1.2202
C 46732 38.88% 38.54 0.559 80.18% 0.188 -1.2273
D 31628 40.85% 35.17 -0.755 79.26% 0.042 -1.135
E 9555 43.42% 39.55 0.661 77.94% 0.129 -1.1483
F 18337 41.55% 38.54 0.356 77.83% 0.096 -1.1473
G 13154 41.96% 37.01 -0.16 78.68% 0.072 -1.1585
H 19152 34.82% 40.79 1.444 82.93% 0.346 -0.8939
East 2625 44.31% 39.12 0.733 69.94% -0.239 -1.19
Northeast 3962 39.6% 40.97 1.22 72.89% -0.046 -0.9361
Northwest 3210 30.42% 46.03 2.567 78.66% -0.048 -1.0132
Southeast 685 38.73% 41.04 1.449 81.46% 0.449 -0.5527
Southwest 817 58.81% 30.83 -3.097 53.98% -0.444 -1.0521
West 3683 38.25% 40.96 0.741 72.74% -0.285 -0.9714

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2364 0.0% 24.16 -6.251 82.49% -2.045 -0.0009
Not Using Events or Tokens 283 40.87% 24.23 -4.355 88.69% 0.254 0.4734
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6931 7.98% 48.57 3.291 94.19% 0.885 0.1813
Start of Game Growth 9967 12.88% 48.77 3.466 91.33% 0.34 -0.1143
Unlimited Undo 23319 33.0% 43.12 2.197 85.13% 0.525 0.1128
Using Tokens but Not Events 26462 30.69% 33.07 -1.955 86.15% 0.062 0.0142

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 17241 29.53% 37.8 0.132 82.05% -0.024 0.1224
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4311 47.41% 33.6 -1.432 74.83% -0.332 -0.0956
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3565 34.71% 36.75 -0.571 79.72% -0.164 -0.2492
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5680 26.99% 36.8 -0.29 84.89% 0.065 -0.2996
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4418 30.77% 39.89 0.928 83.18% 0.152 -0.0926
Fractured Days Split the Sky 863 31.44% 42.74 1.853 82.16% 0.041 0.3867
Heart of the Wildfire 6954 50.53% 33.61 -1.704 73.48% -0.225 0.1252
Lightning's Swift Strike 12478 37.05% 40.92 1.395 80.2% 0.119 0.3879
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2480 41.27% 39.32 0.136 77.5% -0.092 -0.4115
Many Minds Move as One 1480 36.38% 37.85 0.123 82.97% 0.149 -0.371
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 12160 40.01% 39.73 0.751 80.29% 0.126 -0.0682
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3620 34.23% 38.09 0.096 81.41% 0.01 0.0592
River Surges in Sunlight 13007 35.55% 40.4 0.924 81.26% -0.033 0.1292
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 9363 36.13% 38.62 -0.239 76.14% -0.301 -0.1517
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 4671 46.96% 33.13 -1.795 73.73% -0.413 0.0363
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 13585 29.51% 39.5 0.489 82.05% -0.039 -0.1067
Shroud of Silent Mist 70 38.57% 34.83 -1.372 85.71% 0.339 0.2951
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4088 40.14% 37.63 -0.389 76.52% -0.125 -0.1445
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3401 33.13% 40.37 1.132 85.45% 0.318 0.5345
Thunderspeaker 11708 30.16% 39.52 0.732 82.04% 0.011 0.0688
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1854 53.73% 33.8 -1.708 74.76% -0.195 -0.1749
Vital Strength of the Earth 6351 33.4% 33.6 -1.657 79.26% -0.284 0.5864
Volcano Looming High 857 43.57% 39.36 0.406 81.68% 0.203 0.1409

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Growing Power 68.37%
Regrow From Roots 80.39%
Sacrosanct Wilderness 89.38%
Towering Wrath 89.02%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 40537 22.34 27.28%
II 98764 30.75 83.58%
III 65146 34.26 94.81%
IV 20188 37.47 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7727
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 42509
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 54728
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14015
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1589
Lose: Adversary condition 18249
Win: Sacrifice victory 521
Lose: Scenario condition 3292
Win: Scenario condition 3724
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24912
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1124

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.797 Win Model: -0.208

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.083 Win Model: -0.62
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 137924 42.78% 37.71 77.4%
2 47529 42.16% 35.62 77.35%
3 20870 34.43% 36.34 81.97%
4 18312 30.83% 41.92 81.05%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)