Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
263989	41.01%	37.92	78.14%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	71913	23.79%	23.03	0.000	93.25%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1115	27.99%	30.75	-2.205	89.96%	-0.407	-0.1176
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	829	41.04%	33.54	-0.459	84.44%	-0.704	-0.2898
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	1109	51.77%	38.83	2.147	76.01%	-1.231	-0.3482
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	1585	59.87%	37.78	1.67	64.92%	-1.786	-0.5436
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	894	75.59%	37.93	2.076	48.1%	-2.299	-0.8025
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	541	80.96%	34.76	0.985	29.94%	-2.654	-0.7154
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	2253	74.08%	42.4	3.923	43.01%	-2.634	-0.5915
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	5740	27.53%	26.52	-4.028	91.22%	-0.198	-0.157
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	4402	35.97%	30.38	-1.794	89.1%	-0.169	-0.1868

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	2966	45.44%	30.3	-3.743	63.86%	-0.989	-0.4234
Dahan Insurrection	4	3811	26.5%	56.38	9.196	80.22%	-0.213	0.1868
Despicable Theft	2	133	39.85%	38.64	1.601	84.21%	-0.102	0.1717
Elemental Invocation	1	315	51.11%	31.3	-2.657	68.57%	-0.697	-0.1943
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	22659	15.63%	50.07	5.039	77.96%	-0.235	0.1295
Powers Long Forgotten	1	2066	36.46%	43.19	1.841	80.54%	-0.488	-0.0413
Rituals of Terror	3	987	39.47%	44.5	4.541	79.13%	-0.249	0.3962
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	2035	69.69%	32.29	-0.45	64.91%	-0.89	-0.2429
Second Wave	0	8120	47.23%	29.58	-2.781	74.9%	-0.902	-0.4723
The Great River	3	331	43.2%	36.26	-0.051	76.44%	-1.205	0.2684
Ward the Shores	2	1614	36.24%	37.89	0.6	72.61%	-0.876	0.1559

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	154435	42.55%	38.31	0.332	77.89%	-1.207	-1.1203
1	Thematic	8057	48.85%	37.4	-0.142	66.3%	-1.622	-1.3455
2	Archipelago	35	48.57%	38.03	0.464	71.43%	-0.639	-0.6323
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	35089	44.15%	35.45	-0.731	77.15%	-0.778	-0.752
2	Coastline	5848	39.1%	36.3	-0.718	79.19%	-0.762	-0.7863
2	Fragment	1018	48.61%	33.45	-1.445	76.33%	-0.86	-0.6376
2	Heart	522	50.59%	30.78	-2.658	72.61%	-1.098	-0.9983
2	Opposite Shores	7767	38.94%	35.31	-1.097	78.4%	-0.843	-0.7771
2	Thematic	4032	37.89%	39.62	0.294	74.16%	-1.051	-1.1179
2	Top to Top	1132	42.5%	37.03	-0.0	80.48%	-0.561	-0.6301

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	9978	35.27	-2.175	60.03%	-1.627	0.4426
Aid From Lesser Spirits	8727	36.8	-1.411	61.13%	-1.578	0.3349
All Things Weaken	3609	36.52	-1.921	57.3%	-1.7	0.459
Back Against the Wall	8428	35.46	-2.065	58.15%	-1.715	0.3722
Disintegrating Ecosystem	9386	31.65	-3.965	54.73%	-1.864	0.3578
Downward Spiral	12460	33.57	-2.581	65.22%	-1.504	0.5176
Erosion of Will	9663	33.47	-3.073	56.03%	-1.841	0.3663
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1805	43.26	1.57	80.94%	-0.481	0.1974
Memory Fades to Dust	12742	32.37	-3.192	61.03%	-1.735	0.4796
Power Corrodes the Spirit	3513	36.6	-1.966	58.21%	-1.62	0.4012
Promising Farmlands	9990	32.5	-3.571	55.65%	-1.841	0.3672
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	1207	42.68	1.477	83.84%	-0.316	0.0956
Thriving Communities	3486	36.58	-1.904	58.98%	-1.59	0.4985
Tipping Point	4892	32.58	-3.404	56.15%	-1.826	0.3989
Unnatural Proliferation	3715	38.24	-1.016	59.73%	-1.559	0.5222
Untended Land Crumbles	3587	36.29	-2.106	58.6%	-1.623	0.4787

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	38578	44.29%	35.59	-1.228	74.78%	-0.124	-0.8122
B	42502	43.13%	36.56	-0.535	77.13%	0.001	-0.7824
C	52958	38.89%	38.78	0.476	80.21%	0.21	-0.8024
D	35890	41.01%	35.5	-0.786	79.33%	0.077	-0.7009
E	13413	43.33%	40.29	0.774	77.95%	0.157	-0.7374
East	2944	44.7%	39.54	0.823	70.18%	-0.235	-0.8113
F	23043	41.75%	39.01	0.369	77.94%	0.128	-0.7133
G	16231	42.3%	37.3	-0.231	78.44%	0.087	-0.745
H	23911	34.93%	41.31	1.462	83.14%	0.381	-0.4584
Northeast	4616	40.24%	40.91	1.103	71.4%	-0.113	-0.6374
Northwest	3630	29.57%	46.41	2.552	79.28%	-0.063	-0.6582
Southeast	899	38.43%	41.33	1.326	80.65%	0.366	-0.2628
Southwest	1104	55.4%	33.31	-2.627	57.97%	-0.487	-0.686
West	4270	39.47%	41.11	0.71	71.97%	-0.317	-0.6445

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	2635	0.0%	24.08	-6.406	83.0%	-2.063	-0.0098
Not Using Events or Tokens	313	40.82%	23.56	-4.686	87.54%	0.115	0.33
Skip Initial Invader Actions	8231	7.62%	49.12	3.267	94.33%	0.887	0.2011
Start of Game Growth	11941	12.24%	49.37	3.541	91.69%	0.357	-0.1124
Unlimited Undo	26800	32.76%	43.21	2.054	85.44%	0.515	0.0922
Using Tokens but Not Events	30396	30.26%	33.49	-1.972	86.6%	0.089	0.0381

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	19159	29.73%	37.98	0.081	82.08%	-0.027	0.0775
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	4682	47.09%	33.63	-1.506	75.42%	-0.315	-0.1174
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4134	35.31%	36.58	-0.657	80.19%	-0.125	-0.2386
Eyes Watch From the Trees	6888	27.19%	36.64	-0.427	85.54%	0.103	-0.3012
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	5322	30.4%	40.44	1.062	83.75%	0.197	-0.108
Fractured Days Split the Sky	1238	30.15%	44.18	2.106	83.2%	0.077	0.4253
Heart of the Wildfire	7649	50.77%	33.68	-1.76	73.71%	-0.216	0.1027
Lightning's Swift Strike	14150	36.37%	41.23	1.419	80.59%	0.135	0.3604
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	4468	42.55%	39.71	0.115	76.01%	-0.138	-0.4246
Many Minds Move as One	1943	35.95%	38.19	0.132	83.43%	0.16	-0.3726

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	16290	4.21	36.046	81.86%
Animated Wrackroot	11741	4.493	38.318	82.09%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	728	4.613	40.46	83.79%
Birds Cry Warning	2793	5.995	43.419	79.34%
Blood Draws Predators	3895	5.554	43.712	83.95%
Call of the Dahan Ways	8552	4.84	41.959	83.48%
Call To Bloodshed	6978	4.402	38.987	83.66%
Call to Ferocity	5160	5.133	41.421	82.71%
Call to Guard	7962	6.233	46.389	83.47%
Call To Isolation	9183	5.638	43.958	83.56%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	8129	4.545	36.854	82.22%
Angry Bears	1247	4.432	38.365	84.44%
Bargains of Power and Protection	1257	6.002	40.928	71.92%
Blazing Renewal	7967	6.307	41.374	76.72%
Bloodwrack Plague	5092	4.896	37.118	77.34%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	3419	4.151	34.274	81.63%
Cleansing Floods	4680	3.919	34.767	82.71%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	3878	3.915	34.713	83.29%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	1249	4.206	34.707	81.59%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	1005	5.096	34.959	76.02%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Boon of Growing Power	68.56%
Regrow From Roots	80.5%
Sacrosanct Wilderness	89.18%
Towering Wrath	89.07%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	47498	22.37	27.19%
II	115762	30.88	83.55%
III	76905	34.39	94.82%
IV	23824	37.55	99.6%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	21925
Lose: Blight pool ran out	29066
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1829
Lose: Scenario condition	3669
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1216
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	9584
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	68521
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	53483
Win: Sacrifice victory	601
Win: Scenario condition	4224
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	17626

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.84 Win Model: -0.206

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	2195	6.02%	27.85	97.04%	95.66%
-2	1107	6.73%	30.27	98.01%	94.72%
-1	1617	14.72%	26.1	93.38%	93.59%
0	61659	23.99%	22.0	93.36%	92.24%
1	17061	25.1%	27.34	91.99%	90.64%
2	12183	33.59%	29.42	89.13%	88.74%
3	12693	42.51%	32.53	83.87%	86.52%
4	16323	36.35%	36.98	83.67%	83.94%
5	12080	45.29%	39.86	76.56%	80.97%
6	20012	51.44%	41.25	74.77%	77.6%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.074 Win Model: -0.504

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	162918	42.88%	38.28	77.33%
2	55305	42.49%	35.73	77.33%
3	24201	34.32%	36.35	82.27%
4	21565	30.56%	42.57	81.69%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.