Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 20.69% 30.72 100.0% 0.866 0.6643 0.409
Blitz 0 14 35.71% 32.5 85.71% -0.085 0.1719 -0.752
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 12.5% 55.75 87.5% -0.323 0.0899 0.225
Despicable Theft 2 6 50.0% 40.0 66.67% -0.191 0.2552 0.205
Elemental Invocation 1 4 0.0% 38.75 100.0% 0.227 0.7128 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 276 31.52% 48.98 65.94% -0.063 0.2425 -0.399
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 34.25 50.0% -0.723 -0.5416 -0.398
Rituals of Terror 3 4 50.0% 49.0 75.0% 0.151 0.272 -0.055
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 33.0 50.0% 0.078 0.4932 -0.411
Second Wave 0 52 57.69% 31.35 76.92% -1.021 -0.4555 0.099
The Great River 3 18 61.11% 34.56 66.67% -1.001 0.3964 -1.078
Varied Terrains 2 25 68.0% 42.4 72.0% 0.014 0.5398 -0.466
Ward the Shores 2 5 20.0% 37.4 100.0% 0.211 1.373 0.0

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 152 41.39 63.82% -1.539 0.3638 -1.263
Aid From Lesser Spirits 111 41.56 65.77% -1.366 0.3638 -0.647
All Things Weaken 146 40.16 60.27% -1.541 0.4442 -1.009
Back Against the Wall 116 39.43 62.07% -1.59 0.2265 -0.919
Disintegrating Ecosystem 145 37.32 53.1% -1.878 0.1725 -1.432
Downward Spiral 183 38.49 65.03% -1.414 0.5791 -1.36
Erosion of Will 153 39.26 50.98% -1.799 0.2842 -1.436
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 59 45.59 89.83% 0.01 0.4506 0.064
Memory Fades to Dust 146 39.16 59.59% -1.592 0.4924 -1.135
Power Corrodes the Spirit 156 38.97 62.18% -1.612 0.3262 -1.241
Promising Farmlands 147 39.56 60.54% -1.569 0.4773 -1.117
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 44 45.36 86.36% -0.012 0.4127 -0.037
Thriving Communities 173 39.06 59.54% -1.589 0.395 -1.131
Unnatural Proliferation 166 38.21 60.84% -1.68 0.2843 -1.266
Untended Land Crumbles 154 41.16 65.58% -1.318 0.6747 -0.722

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 797 50.98% 37.95 73.78% -0.091 0.7067 -0.466
B 867 51.99% 38.66 74.51% -0.083 0.6606 -0.1
C 914 53.94% 39.6 76.48% 0.313 0.8817 0.181
D 634 47.03% 39.06 80.91% 0.338 1.1341 0.1
E 699 50.36% 39.34 78.25% 0.308 0.9553 0.002
F 583 51.2% 38.03 75.47% 0.053 0.7771 -0.452
G 564 52.14% 38.29 78.9% 0.183 0.9146 0.234
H 536 48.04% 39.29 83.77% 0.473 1.1855 0.13
East 64 43.75% 37.66 82.81% 0.17 0.9388 0.298
Northeast 37 43.24% 38.49 83.78% 0.241 1.101 0.591
Northwest 39 50.0% 39.03 76.92% -1.104 -0.027 -0.625
Southeast 35 25.71% 39.0 88.57% -0.011 0.6949 0.248
Southwest 39 30.77% 39.87 82.05% -0.853 0.2726 -0.114
West 69 47.06% 37.86 75.36% 0.133 1.0867 0.0

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 48 0.0% 38.21 85.42% -1.202 0.927 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 28.0% 25.9 83.87% -0.739 -0.5637 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 161 12.3% 53.11 91.3% 0.617 0.4743 -0.52
Start of Game Growth 191 17.69% 51.3 90.05% 0.628 -0.1321 0.037
Unlimited Undo 439 61.07% 46.53 81.09% 0.448 -0.156 0.79
Using Tokens but Not Events 269 35.68% 30.2 86.99% -0.33 -0.4868 -0.982

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 56.17%
Lightning's Boon 31.3%
Raging Storm 50.75%
Shatter Homesteads 74.86%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 502 22.56 20.92%
II 1835 30.98 76.84%
III 1149 34.53 93.73%
IV 329 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 105
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1057
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1393
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 323
Lose: Invader deck ran out 13
Lose: Adversary condition 237
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Scenario condition 56
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 577
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.102 Win Model: 0.051
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2576 58.75% 40.72 75.93%
2 746 49.06% 38.01 75.34%
3 307 42.49% 37.77 80.13%
4 110 33.94% 35.67 82.73%
5 12 41.67% 28.0 75.0%
6 64 32.81% 39.58 89.06%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)