Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 41 24.39% 31.05 97.56% -0.314 0.1818 0.344
Blitz 0 33 39.39% 30.67 72.73% -0.977 -0.5339 -1.382
Dahan Insurrection 4 17 23.53% 55.24 76.47% -0.53 -0.4327 0.074
Despicable Theft 2 12 58.33% 39.25 75.0% -0.29 0.2083 0.329
Elemental Invocation 1 17 52.94% 37.76 76.47% -0.472 0.0736 -0.174
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 628 34.87% 52.62 64.65% 0.407 0.6386 -0.719
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 87.5% 29.0 50.0% -0.474 -0.0663 -0.381
Rituals of Terror 3 8 37.5% 49.13 87.5% 0.098 -0.1379 0.145
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 80.0% 42.2 80.0% 0.241 0.4672 -0.08
Second Wave 0 154 40.14% 37.79 85.71% 0.13 0.8224 0.683
The Great River 3 111 62.16% 35.79 37.84% -0.866 0.7151 -1.899
Varied Terrains 2 38 63.16% 40.24 78.95% -0.037 0.749 -0.457
Ward the Shores 2 16 50.0% 40.56 75.0% 0.424 1.3053 -0.443

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5727 61.09% 42.26 73.09% -0.33 0.3329 -0.257
1 Thematic 68 55.22% 37.09 72.06% -0.069 0.9873 -0.591
2 Archipelago 6 0.0% 56.5 100.0% 0.018 0.4893 0.266
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 810 53.85% 41.5 80.0% -0.254 0.2639 -0.467
2 Coastline 202 46.53% 41.68 86.63% 0.599 0.8 -0.092
2 Fragment 26 76.92% 45.27 73.08% 0.002 0.3 0.787
2 Heart 70 78.57% 33.89 40.0% -0.609 -0.1483 -1.289
2 Opposite Shores 372 37.1% 35.4 74.73% -0.207 0.3319 -1.117
2 Thematic 48 39.58% 38.48 83.33% 0.283 1.0647 -0.035
2 Top to Top 50 51.02% 41.98 82.0% 0.652 0.7804 -0.09
3 Archipelago 7 57.14% 54.14 100.0% 0.077 -0.1412 0.226
3 Coastline 7 42.86% 40.71 71.43% -0.198 -0.7052 -0.375
3 Other 30 23.33% 26.47 56.67% 0.641 -0.0226 0.083
3 Round (Default) 657 46.14% 41.2 80.97% -0.392 -0.0876 -0.897
3 Thematic 12 58.33% 40.75 100.0% 0.485 0.6933 0.689
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 34.0 75.0% -0.141 -0.1787 -0.321
4 Coastline 6 33.33% 26.17 83.33% 0.008 -0.0289 0.0
4 Leaf 3 66.67% 49.33 100.0% 0.326 0.2245 0.349
4 Other 14 21.43% 25.57 85.71% 0.739 0.0247 0.5
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.41
4 Thematic 18 50.0% 40.78 61.11% -0.155 -0.0507 -0.368
4 Trapezoid (Default) 232 35.56% 37.28 74.57% -1.539 -1.461 -1.398
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.001 -0.5868 0.0
5 Other 28 35.71% 32.5 75.0% -0.721 -1.2372 -0.653
5 Thematic 2 100.0% 44.5 50.0% -0.109 -0.3958 -0.349
6 Archipelago 2 0.0% 48.0 100.0% 0.029 -0.1176 0.185
6 Other 24 37.5% 33.58 66.67% -0.688 -0.6428 -0.883
6 Star 13 53.85% 32.77 76.92% -0.308 0.4621 -1.13
6 Thematic 69 17.39% 53.93 79.71% -0.958 -0.7173 -0.411
6 Two Centers (Default) 55 32.73% 50.62 94.55% 0.679 0.8701 1.39
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Other 4 50.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.125 -0.3585 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 361 41.53 61.22% -1.538 0.433 -1.314
Aid From Lesser Spirits 286 45.19 64.34% -1.101 0.6772 -0.924
All Things Weaken 358 41.25 59.22% -1.35 0.6985 -1.182
Back Against the Wall 277 41.73 61.73% -1.442 0.4966 -1.227
Disintegrating Ecosystem 323 39.57 58.51% -1.488 0.6402 -1.469
Downward Spiral 390 39.8 64.36% -1.147 0.8138 -1.25
Erosion of Will 325 39.18 51.38% -1.756 0.3258 -1.501
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 132 48.1 87.12% -0.374 0.1274 -0.008
Memory Fades to Dust 359 41.16 61.84% -1.572 0.5689 -1.166
Power Corrodes the Spirit 388 40.5 61.08% -1.382 0.5991 -1.251
Promising Farmlands 348 39.84 56.9% -1.695 0.3266 -1.327
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 94 46.73 87.23% -0.433 0.0633 -0.076
Thriving Communities 391 37.64 56.01% -1.768 0.2912 -1.444
Unnatural Proliferation 412 40.92 58.98% -1.403 0.5538 -1.31
Untended Land Crumbles 328 41.7 64.02% -1.318 0.7157 -0.941

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1735 52.89% 40.21 73.26% -0.046 0.6904 -0.043
B 1877 52.81% 40.3 74.05% -0.069 0.6284 -0.031
C 2124 55.16% 41.1 74.53% -0.115 0.355 0.095
D 1482 49.12% 40.29 78.48% 0.136 0.8455 0.204
E 1559 52.25% 41.33 79.22% 0.547 1.0914 0.331
F 1313 51.57% 40.67 75.4% -0.061 0.6004 0.04
G 1299 52.55% 41.1 76.6% 0.29 0.9204 0.314
H 1184 52.21% 41.07 78.97% -0.083 0.5816 0.198
East 173 36.42% 44.68 77.46% -1.48 -0.8183 -0.254
Northeast 118 32.2% 47.45 77.97% 0.134 0.7943 0.395
Northwest 113 33.93% 48.17 76.11% 0.36 0.9706 -0.396
Southeast 98 24.49% 49.02 79.59% 0.464 0.9952 -0.505
Southwest 104 27.88% 48.57 77.88% -0.074 0.8948 0.115
West 166 38.79% 44.75 77.71% 0.072 0.8776 -0.421

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 103 0.0% 38.89 78.64% -1.869 0.3597 0.117
Not Using Events or Tokens 66 35.19% 23.86 81.82% -0.75 -0.5229 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 338 14.23% 56.77 92.9% 0.381 -0.5988 -0.31
Start of Game Growth 537 23.86% 58.48 91.06% 1.174 0.717 0.436
Unlimited Undo 969 60.17% 49.75 82.77% 0.272 -0.2794 0.717
Using Tokens but Not Events 695 34.77% 32.75 81.44% -0.795 -0.6404 -1.135

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 298 100.0% 43.18 100.0% 0.383 0.3079 0.536
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 49 100.0% 36.9 100.0% -0.228 -0.1497 0.032
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 98 100.0% 36.89 100.0% 1.753 1.5287 0.728
Downpour Drenches the World 294 100.0% 37.65 100.0% 0.745 1.0096 0.156
Eyes Watch From the Trees 119 100.0% 36.17 100.0% 0.659 0.1557 0.802
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 144 100.0% 46.57 100.0% 1.106 0.5191 1.007
Finder of Paths Unseen 168 100.0% 41.13 100.0% 0.163 0.5192 0.762
Fractured Days Split the Sky 58 100.0% 54.19 100.0% 0.513 0.5953 0.779
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 69 100.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.218 0.1227 0.297
Heart of the Wildfire 65 100.0% 34.57 100.0% -0.081 0.324 -0.403
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 429 100.0% 46.22 100.0% 0.333 -0.2704 0.39
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 182 100.0% 43.99 100.0% 0.146 -0.006 0.232
Many Minds Move as One 42 100.0% 28.88 100.0% -1.195 -1.7811 -0.808
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 189 100.0% 42.12 100.0% -0.046 -0.2156 0.479
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 86 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 1.056 1.0 0.33
River Surges in Sunlight 59 390.32% 34.41 257.63% -0.259 -0.333 -0.389
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 72 43.06% 33.65 47.22% -0.82 -0.394 -1.327
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 238 40.85% 36.58 76.89% -0.046 -0.3867 -0.81
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 228 100.0% 42.44 100.0% 0.095 -0.0988 0.406
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7 1912.5% 27.71 685.71% 0.21 0.685 -0.818
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 92 43.48% 33.54 85.87% 0.138 0.3179 -0.134
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 117 36.21% 35.22 84.62% -0.796 -0.741 -0.366
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 30 56.67% 35.63 70.0% -0.091 -0.1133 0.288
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 10 40.0% 31.7 90.0% -0.34 -0.2238 -0.56
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 127 100.0% 47.82 100.0% -1.131 -1.3223 -0.345
Shifting Memory of Ages 260 100.0% 45.51 100.0% 0.266 0.4805 0.162
Shroud of Silent Mist 36 100.0% 31.94 100.0% -0.087 0.0476 -0.32
Starlight Seeks its Form 225 100.0% 42.16 100.0% 0.198 0.0828 -0.223
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 164 100.0% 45.74 100.0% 0.152 -0.0865 -0.101
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 91 100.0% 35.71 100.0% -0.771 -0.6404 -0.079
Thunderspeaker 122 100.0% 42.6 100.0% 0.419 0.4014 0.008
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 66 100.0% 36.94 100.0% -0.356 -0.5713 0.222
Vital Strength of the Earth 36 475.0% 33.58 316.67% -1.303 -0.4051 -0.826
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 309 37.54% 37.28 76.38% -0.539 -0.1159 -0.547
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 27 55.56% 30.41 81.48% -0.386 0.7284 -0.023
Volcano Looming High 126 100.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.284 -0.305 0.383

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 54.16%
Lightning's Boon 28.64%
Raging Storm 49.5%
Shatter Homesteads 72.82%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1211 22.65 18.33%
II 4005 31.08 75.66%
III 2591 34.66 92.63%
IV 784 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 222
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2357
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2996
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 769
Lose: Invader deck ran out 24
Lose: Adversary condition 588
Win: Sacrifice victory 68
Lose: Scenario condition 149
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1357
Lose: Spirit destroyed 37

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.117 Win Model: -0.273

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.044 Win Model: -0.13
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 5866 61.05% 42.28 73.18%
2 1544 49.25% 39.63 78.11%
3 713 45.09% 40.63 80.65%
4 274 37.45% 37.02 74.09%
5 30 33.33% 30.87 73.33%
6 164 28.66% 48.05 83.54%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)