Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 61 36.07% 31.23 90.16% 0.617 0.3609 0.605
Blitz 0 52 40.38% 29.58 65.38% -0.62 -0.4223 -0.934
Dahan Insurrection 4 37 40.54% 50.68 70.27% 0.012 -0.4308 -0.008
Despicable Theft 2 16 43.75% 34.25 68.75% -0.212 0.6001 0.427
Elemental Invocation 1 64 64.06% 32.19 42.19% -1.209 -0.5064 -1.785
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1048 31.11% 51.91 66.7% 0.643 -0.0014 0.019
Powers Long Forgotten 1 15 66.67% 22.0 40.0% -0.718 -0.0826 -0.35
Rituals of Terror 3 17 41.18% 30.47 52.94% -1.569 -1.468 0.228
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 19 78.95% 24.16 47.37% -1.505 -0.4955 0.054
Second Wave 0 282 31.73% 39.16 80.5% 0.28 0.3463 0.442
The Great River 3 136 56.62% 33.64 38.97% -0.954 0.2632 -1.578
Varied Terrains 2 73 57.53% 33.74 68.49% -0.281 0.3419 -0.898
Ward the Shores 2 39 56.41% 33.21 56.41% -0.483 0.6013 -0.8

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9413 59.38% 39.53 66.67% 0.295 0.3492 -0.186
1 Thematic 247 41.46% 38.46 68.02% 0.378 0.8558 -0.45
2 Archipelago 16 18.75% 40.88 81.25% 0.25 0.3543 0.543
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1481 52.08% 37.57 71.51% -0.044 0.038 -0.75
2 Coastline 324 51.85% 38.06 72.84% -0.356 -0.5103 -0.698
2 Fragment 52 67.31% 42.17 61.54% 0.196 -0.0532 0.018
2 Heart 101 77.23% 34.45 41.58% 0.591 0.3038 -1.341
2 Opposite Shores 608 39.64% 34.0 70.23% 0.02 0.0431 -0.974
2 Thematic 94 41.94% 32.9 67.02% -0.587 -0.1831 -0.271
2 Top to Top 70 50.72% 38.23 74.29% -0.386 -0.5522 -0.395
3 Archipelago 9 44.44% 54.0 100.0% 0.392 -1.1565 0.298
3 Coastline 21 47.62% 34.38 61.9% -0.332 -0.8457 -0.638
3 Other 54 27.78% 27.22 61.11% -0.207 0.3333 -0.27
3 Round (Default) 1322 47.53% 37.2 66.41% -0.945 -1.06 -1.648
3 Thematic 24 50.0% 43.25 91.67% 0.469 0.5489 0.878
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 34.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.6745 -0.158
4 Coastline 9 22.22% 24.11 77.78% -0.235 -0.0039 0.0
4 Leaf 8 87.5% 47.88 87.5% -0.309 -0.6527 0.236
4 Other 29 20.69% 23.97 86.21% 0.007 -1.0768 0.325
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.153
4 Thematic 32 40.63% 34.03 56.25% -0.633 -0.8953 0.035
4 Trapezoid (Default) 454 39.23% 35.29 70.26% -0.269 -0.3516 -1.836
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.302 -0.6144 0.461
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6517 0.0
5 Other 48 33.33% 30.35 68.75% -0.121 -0.4063 -1.254
5 Thematic 3 100.0% 37.0 66.67% 0.253 0.1595 -0.19
6 Archipelago 13 15.38% 75.15 100.0% 0.339 0.4907 0.493
6 Other 65 18.46% 47.35 75.38% -0.044 -0.2767 -0.851
6 Star 19 36.84% 30.21 73.68% -1.083 -1.0956 -1.682
6 Thematic 138 25.0% 45.87 65.94% -1.337 -0.9164 -1.164
6 Two Centers (Default) 114 26.32% 42.98 75.44% -1.852 -1.7478 -0.864
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.564 0.5446 0.562
7 Other 8 37.5% 40.63 100.0% 0.305 -0.3077 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 570 38.96 54.04% 0.008 0.2503 -0.736
Aid From Lesser Spirits 424 44.47 62.97% 0.618 0.5402 -0.169
All Things Weaken 552 39.87 52.9% -0.242 0.1501 -0.546
Attenuated Essence 86 40.64 68.6% 0.613 0.7198 0.412
Back Against the Wall 420 41.54 60.0% -0.1 -0.0421 -0.353
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 91 36.64 56.04% 0.284 0.4857 -0.182
Burn Brightest Before the End 54 35.72 48.15% -0.0 0.2103 -0.441
Disintegrating Ecosystem 523 37.81 56.21% 0.094 0.5176 -0.683
Downward Spiral 623 38.13 58.91% -0.019 0.2163 -0.574
Erosion of Will 501 37.67 48.7% -0.502 -0.1928 -0.818
Intensifying Exploitation 89 34.97 53.93% -0.209 0.0782 -0.795
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 209 47.38 80.38% 0.636 0.1421 0.412
Memory Fades to Dust 596 39.38 57.38% -0.136 0.2007 -0.44
Power Corrodes the Spirit 566 39.86 57.95% 0.247 0.467 -0.412
Promising Farmlands 557 38.84 52.78% -0.273 0.1804 -0.598
Shattered Fragments of Power 52 37.21 65.38% 0.154 0.2048 0.319
Slow Dissolution of Will 89 35.12 48.31% 0.022 0.4209 -0.4
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 146 45.07 78.08% -0.037 -0.7473 0.061
The Border of Life and Death 29 37.17 68.97% 0.377 0.0419 -0.446
Thriving Communities 617 36.67 51.54% -0.198 0.1649 -0.71
Thriving Crops 49 36.35 61.22% 0.269 0.0715 -0.295
Unnatural Proliferation 609 40.47 55.99% 0.187 0.4024 -0.503
Untended Land Crumbles 539 39.02 56.96% -0.36 -0.0779 -0.478

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2921 50.68% 38.36 69.5% 0.26 1.0001 0.257
B 3175 50.52% 37.82 68.6% 0.351 1.0766 0.1
C 3662 53.05% 38.85 68.46% 0.174 0.7568 0.143
D 2612 47.84% 37.56 70.18% -0.062 0.6489 0.27
E 2993 49.28% 36.73 65.95% 0.069 0.6342 0.061
F 2576 52.97% 37.44 62.93% 0.203 0.8729 -0.305
G 2260 51.38% 38.42 69.96% 0.222 0.8736 0.336
H 2137 49.76% 38.63 71.92% 0.261 0.832 0.309
East 400 36.93% 40.18 70.0% 0.216 0.7553 -0.234
Northeast 259 32.68% 42.2 69.88% 0.155 0.7902 0.352
Northwest 244 34.58% 42.27 65.16% -0.478 0.3312 0.098
Southeast 212 33.33% 41.9 66.98% -0.525 0.1813 -0.641
Southwest 204 32.67% 42.28 65.2% -0.299 0.6911 0.247
West 375 37.47% 39.49 64.53% -0.527 0.3764 -0.983

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 158 0.0% 30.03 65.82% -1.722 -0.9457 0.921
Not Using Events or Tokens 124 48.86% 19.09 62.1% -1.255 -0.8762 0.438
Skip Initial Invader Actions 612 15.06% 55.91 88.4% 0.647 0.029 -0.519
Start of Game Growth 933 22.09% 56.97 87.46% 1.627 1.2788 0.962
Unlimited Undo 1610 54.52% 46.54 77.27% 0.034 0.0277 0.545
Using Tokens but Not Events 1399 26.31% 29.41 69.91% -0.803 -0.813 -1.54

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 644 100.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.197 0.0496 0.481
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 120 100.0% 31.89 100.0% 0.482 0.6125 1.442
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 170 100.0% 33.58 100.0% -0.412 -0.5563 0.393
Downpour Drenches the World 417 100.0% 36.43 100.0% 0.784 0.9633 0.83
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 245 100.0% 35.49 100.0% 0.528 -0.2369 0.074
Eyes Watch From the Trees 224 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.048 -0.637 0.645
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 318 100.0% 44.15 100.0% 0.354 -0.1425 0.541
Finder of Paths Unseen 258 100.0% 38.05 100.0% -0.37 0.2943 1.158
Fractured Days Split the Sky 164 100.0% 47.35 100.0% 0.034 0.6197 -0.368
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 136 100.0% 36.54 100.0% 0.108 0.0136 0.361
Heart of the Wildfire 145 100.0% 31.04 100.0% -0.287 -0.0459 0.105
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 858 100.0% 41.13 100.0% 0.265 -0.177 0.417
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 338 100.0% 39.45 100.0% -0.664 -0.7961 -0.385
Many Minds Move as One 92 100.0% 30.85 100.0% -0.005 -0.2259 -0.306
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 386 100.0% 37.95 100.0% 0.23 0.1881 -0.067
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 180 100.0% 41.33 100.0% 0.911 0.7337 1.085
River Surges in Sunlight 150 273.08% 41.69 198.67% 0.378 0.4482 0.705
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 114 36.28% 31.08 50.88% -0.973 -0.6623 -1.461
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 341 41.07% 34.34 73.02% -0.075 -0.1888 -0.559
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 468 100.0% 38.44 100.0% 0.497 0.2599 0.173
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 24 888.89% 27.58 387.5% -0.51 0.0195 -1.266
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 124 40.65% 31.75 82.26% 0.641 0.5656 -0.305
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 153 34.87% 33.96 82.35% 0.635 0.5296 -0.321
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 51 50.0% 35.06 74.51% 0.244 0.2257 0.552
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 23 30.43% 28.83 69.57% -0.507 -0.3304 0.194
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 197 130.46% 45.47 122.84% 0.435 0.2445 -0.31
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 100 40.0% 32.9 55.0% 0.033 -0.3486 -0.229
Shifting Memory of Ages 525 100.0% 39.93 100.0% 0.09 0.4436 0.416
Shroud of Silent Mist 90 100.0% 29.06 100.0% -0.638 -0.3878 -1.337
Starlight Seeks its Form 373 100.0% 40.54 100.0% 0.496 0.2343 0.086
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 297 100.0% 41.36 100.0% 0.223 -0.2543 0.203
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 157 100.0% 31.85 100.0% -0.433 -0.3696 -0.265
Thunderspeaker 209 116.27% 36.68 111.0% -0.649 -0.6834 -0.977
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 52 34.62% 28.48 55.77% -0.492 -0.5316 0.373
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 119 100.0% 35.46 100.0% 0.224 0.3169 0.886
Vital Strength of the Earth 71 428.72% 25.34 297.18% -1.105 -0.5801 -1.396
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 451 34.73% 37.61 73.39% -0.198 0.0624 -0.482
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 62 52.46% 30.44 67.74% 0.155 0.9316 -0.988
Volcano Looming High 261 100.0% 34.49 100.0% -0.449 -0.4921 0.002

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 55.46%
Lightning's Boon 33.01%
Raging Storm 52.19%
Shatter Homesteads 71.78%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3159 20.4 11.93%
II 6448 31.01 73.85%
III 4028 34.76 92.25%
IV 1185 38.07 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 377
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3651
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4702
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1162
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1105
Lose: Invader deck ran out 38
Lose: Adversary condition 1191
Win: Sacrifice victory 99
Lose: Scenario condition 198
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2176
Lose: Spirit destroyed 74

Difficulty

Score Model: 0.919 Win Model: -0.204

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.048 Win Model: 0.152
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9775 58.95% 39.6 66.85%
2 2679 49.49% 36.54 70.1%
3 1427 46.65% 36.94 66.85%
4 533 39.62% 34.9 70.54%
5 55 34.55% 29.71 67.27%
6 351 24.64% 45.55 73.5%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)