Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 27.78% 31.42 100.0% 0.594 1.0346 0.819
Blitz 0 19 36.84% 29.95 89.47% 0.261 0.5167 -1.005
Dahan Insurrection 4 14 28.57% 56.93 78.57% -0.482 -0.1806 -0.021
Despicable Theft 2 8 50.0% 45.5 75.0% 0.066 0.6111 0.274
Elemental Invocation 1 13 46.15% 37.92 69.23% -1.279 -0.6671 -0.691
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 526 36.31% 52.16 62.55% 0.056 0.25 -0.742
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 83.33% 34.0 50.0% -0.572 -0.3264 -0.442
Rituals of Terror 3 7 42.86% 48.14 85.71% 0.159 -0.6771 0.131
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 36.33 66.67% 0.013 0.5384 -0.381
Second Wave 0 111 48.18% 33.89 83.78% -0.298 0.2743 0.558
The Great River 3 104 63.46% 35.3 34.62% -2.458 -0.8192 -1.936
Varied Terrains 2 32 62.5% 41.69 75.0% -0.515 0.2306 -0.467
Ward the Shores 2 12 58.33% 36.42 66.67% -0.554 0.5007 -0.72

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4576 60.12% 42.15 73.49% -0.554 -0.1089 -0.314
1 Thematic 48 57.45% 37.27 70.83% -0.758 -0.1256 -0.37
2 Archipelago 5 0.0% 61.6 100.0% 0.018 0.0309 0.284
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 614 54.01% 41.06 79.97% -0.285 0.0591 -0.649
2 Coastline 163 44.17% 40.86 86.5% 0.146 0.2285 -0.34
2 Fragment 22 72.73% 44.05 72.73% -0.273 -0.1846 0.236
2 Heart 53 75.47% 33.92 39.62% -1.138 -0.526 -1.078
2 Opposite Shores 298 39.93% 35.69 71.48% -0.373 0.005 -1.206
2 Thematic 45 37.78% 38.67 84.44% 0.127 0.6445 0.328
2 Top to Top 44 53.49% 41.39 79.55% 0.465 0.6037 -0.367
3 Archipelago 6 66.67% 58.5 100.0% 0.036 -0.9416 0.16
3 Coastline 4 50.0% 42.25 75.0% 0.188 -0.4612 -0.057
3 Other 23 26.09% 26.43 43.48% 0.417 -0.6546 -0.147
3 Round (Default) 507 45.7% 40.52 81.26% -0.403 -0.2113 -1.017
3 Thematic 9 66.67% 39.44 100.0% 0.327 0.0813 0.0
4 Archipelago 2 50.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4019 0.0
4 Coastline 6 33.33% 26.17 83.33% 0.04 0.2374 0.0
4 Leaf 2 50.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.0 0.4908 0.0
4 Other 8 12.5% 25.88 87.5% -0.301 -0.8422 0.49
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.253
4 Thematic 13 61.54% 38.23 61.54% 0.349 0.3546 0.044
4 Trapezoid (Default) 159 34.39% 38.87 84.28% -0.148 -0.289 -0.085
5 Other 25 36.0% 32.04 80.0% -0.493 -0.6686 -0.497
5 Thematic 2 100.0% 44.5 50.0% -0.25 -0.285 -0.493
6 Other 17 47.06% 33.06 64.71% -0.488 0.2089 -0.529
6 Star 9 44.44% 34.56 88.89% 0.065 0.5974 -0.158
6 Thematic 48 18.75% 49.75 81.25% -0.393 0.1061 -0.428
6 Two Centers (Default) 46 36.96% 48.15 93.48% 0.584 0.8098 1.517
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.0
7 Other 4 50.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.045 -0.7268 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 293 41.61 62.46% -1.468 0.4419 -1.202
Aid From Lesser Spirits 219 44.06 63.01% -1.2 0.4845 -0.875
All Things Weaken 275 41.2 60.36% -1.372 0.6273 -1.081
Back Against the Wall 227 41.54 63.0% -1.336 0.6124 -1.045
Disintegrating Ecosystem 269 38.68 56.51% -1.455 0.6106 -1.527
Downward Spiral 309 39.56 64.4% -1.266 0.6966 -1.187
Erosion of Will 256 39.73 52.73% -1.623 0.4838 -1.438
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 105 49.41 86.67% -0.061 0.5553 0.079
Memory Fades to Dust 275 41.17 62.55% -1.226 0.8312 -1.081
Power Corrodes the Spirit 296 40.2 59.8% -1.557 0.4218 -1.258
Promising Farmlands 275 40.02 57.45% -1.597 0.5055 -1.196
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 69 48.19 88.41% 0.308 0.6371 0.28
Thriving Communities 307 38.45 57.0% -1.571 0.479 -1.378
Unnatural Proliferation 305 40.21 60.0% -1.493 0.4506 -1.356
Untended Land Crumbles 260 41.66 65.0% -1.229 0.798 -0.799

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1393 53.08% 40.16 73.44% 0.056 0.8157 -0.057
B 1494 52.67% 40.57 75.17% -0.058 0.619 -0.015
C 1664 54.75% 41.13 75.24% -0.053 0.4717 0.072
D 1135 47.84% 40.16 80.26% 0.036 0.7627 0.207
E 1220 52.79% 41.02 78.52% 0.166 0.7255 0.262
F 1013 51.39% 40.59 76.7% 0.273 0.9625 0.147
G 985 53.51% 40.87 76.24% 0.106 0.8018 0.209
H 916 51.92% 40.9 80.9% 0.153 0.8136 0.146
East 129 37.98% 42.28 79.07% -0.542 0.1372 -0.118
Northeast 86 34.88% 43.85 77.91% -0.678 -0.108 0.433
Northwest 84 38.55% 44.63 76.19% -0.307 0.5344 -0.799
Southeast 73 26.03% 45.49 80.82% -0.418 0.1083 -0.376
Southwest 77 31.17% 45.95 79.22% 0.59 1.5308 -0.104
West 127 42.86% 42.37 77.95% 0.758 1.7582 0.044

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 78 0.0% 42.33 88.46% -0.052 2.067 0.266
Not Using Events or Tokens 50 32.56% 25.0 84.0% -1.238 -0.9975 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 273 14.81% 56.73 93.41% 0.942 0.5735 -0.251
Start of Game Growth 404 24.78% 57.0 91.09% 0.919 0.2966 0.39
Unlimited Undo 805 60.84% 49.51 83.23% 0.62 -0.0102 0.771
Using Tokens but Not Events 484 33.17% 32.53 85.12% -0.762 -0.7179 -1.215

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 209 100.0% 41.57 100.0% 0.205 0.157 0.595
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 39 100.0% 38.33 100.0% -0.144 -0.0798 0.323
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 77 100.0% 35.62 100.0% 0.511 0.2731 0.19
Downpour Drenches the World 262 100.0% 36.58 100.0% -0.201 0.1909 -0.083
Eyes Watch From the Trees 83 100.0% 35.47 100.0% 0.285 -0.1304 0.333
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 103 100.0% 45.25 100.0% 0.938 0.3431 0.879
Finder of Paths Unseen 137 100.0% 39.54 100.0% -0.263 0.1417 0.453
Fractured Days Split the Sky 41 100.0% 54.2 100.0% 0.523 0.5657 0.437
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 52 100.0% 40.69 100.0% 0.202 0.1851 0.267
Heart of the Wildfire 53 100.0% 35.43 100.0% -0.486 -0.1574 -0.386
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 285 100.0% 45.7 100.0% 0.151 -0.4837 0.54
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 128 100.0% 41.9 100.0% -0.51 -0.7167 0.15
Many Minds Move as One 33 100.0% 29.39 100.0% -0.911 -1.4236 -0.818
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 151 100.0% 43.43 100.0% 0.67 0.3872 0.983
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 61 100.0% 37.31 100.0% 0.09 0.1222 -0.227
River Surges in Sunlight 41 453.49% 35.68 297.56% 0.081 0.0868 0.321
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 58 43.1% 34.14 44.83% -0.081 0.3635 -1.317
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 210 42.79% 37.2 76.67% 0.242 -0.0012 -1.157
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 151 100.0% 44.7 100.0% 0.467 0.3233 0.892
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6 2133.33% 25.0 500.0% -0.38 0.1217 -0.819
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 74 40.54% 33.01 91.89% 0.283 0.4214 0.57
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 98 34.69% 35.47 85.71% -0.993 -1.0707 -0.52
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 17 47.06% 35.24 82.35% 0.016 0.0145 0.08
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 8 37.5% 30.63 87.5% -0.496 -0.4272 -0.615
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 89 100.0% 47.16 100.0% -0.155 -0.4168 -0.113
Shifting Memory of Ages 171 100.0% 46.36 100.0% 0.86 0.8817 0.51
Shroud of Silent Mist 26 100.0% 33.77 100.0% 0.951 1.1953 -0.236
Starlight Seeks its Form 186 100.0% 41.01 100.0% -0.422 -0.6337 -0.514
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 116 100.0% 44.07 100.0% -0.449 -0.6183 -0.681
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 70 100.0% 36.06 100.0% -0.009 0.101 0.136
Thunderspeaker 98 100.0% 43.09 100.0% -0.468 -0.5637 -0.423
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 54 100.0% 37.96 100.0% -0.173 -0.2704 0.29
Vital Strength of the Earth 29 469.77% 36.07 313.79% -0.45 0.4328 -0.22
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 260 39.02% 37.28 77.31% -0.197 0.2043 -0.441
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 19 52.63% 30.21 84.21% 0.055 1.0975 0.0
Volcano Looming High 95 100.0% 38.09 100.0% 0.072 0.0563 0.567

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 55.03%
Lightning's Boon 28.53%
Raging Storm 50.16%
Shatter Homesteads 73.96%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 944 22.62 18.75%
II 3138 31.05 75.91%
III 2068 34.62 92.55%
IV 628 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 177
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1879
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2355
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 616
Lose: Invader deck ran out 18
Lose: Adversary condition 460
Win: Sacrifice victory 55
Lose: Scenario condition 134
Win: Scenario condition 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1036
Lose: Spirit destroyed 29

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.128 Win Model: -0.285

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: -0.106
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4679 60.03% 42.18 73.58%
2 1214 49.75% 39.41 77.18%
3 548 45.14% 39.94 80.47%
4 190 36.7% 38.39 82.63%
5 25 36.0% 29.84 76.0%
6 122 31.97% 45.64 85.25%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)