Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 57 35.09% 31.89 94.74% 1.25 1.1713 0.413
Blitz 0 46 41.3% 30.48 67.39% -0.531 -0.3844 -1.137
Dahan Insurrection 4 33 45.45% 50.85 69.7% -0.227 -0.4339 -0.215
Despicable Theft 2 15 46.67% 36.53 73.33% -0.52 0.1626 0.466
Elemental Invocation 1 59 66.1% 33.78 44.07% -0.82 -0.089 -1.824
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 944 31.46% 52.32 66.31% 0.269 -0.3377 -0.226
Powers Long Forgotten 1 14 71.43% 23.57 42.86% -1.356 -0.8677 -0.358
Rituals of Terror 3 16 43.75% 32.38 56.25% -1.655 -1.5494 0.16
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 16 75.0% 28.69 56.25% -1.257 -0.2651 0.062
Second Wave 0 264 32.81% 38.48 80.3% -0.274 -0.211 0.317
The Great River 3 129 58.91% 34.22 37.98% -1.936 -0.5881 -1.693
Varied Terrains 2 67 56.72% 33.51 68.66% -0.53 0.0328 -1.142
Ward the Shores 2 37 54.05% 33.24 56.76% -0.774 0.4353 -1.033

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8414 60.7% 40.98 69.18% 0.427 0.637 -0.138
1 Thematic 195 44.85% 40.31 67.18% 0.443 1.0418 -0.477
2 Archipelago 12 8.33% 40.67 83.33% -0.314 0.0434 0.288
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1318 52.25% 38.49 73.44% -0.189 -0.0286 -0.702
2 Coastline 294 50.34% 39.14 76.53% -0.271 -0.2106 -0.449
2 Fragment 45 64.44% 44.78 71.11% 0.688 0.625 0.542
2 Heart 97 76.29% 34.34 40.21% 0.351 0.1131 -1.383
2 Opposite Shores 539 36.92% 33.99 72.91% -0.091 0.0422 -1.01
2 Thematic 85 45.24% 33.62 68.24% -0.589 0.0477 -0.404
2 Top to Top 66 52.31% 38.42 75.76% -0.225 -0.1844 -0.383
3 Archipelago 8 50.0% 51.25 100.0% 0.0 -1.0866 0.265
3 Coastline 14 42.86% 33.86 64.29% 0.35 -0.1481 -0.029
3 Other 46 23.91% 27.96 65.22% -0.108 0.0014 0.012
3 Round (Default) 1156 46.88% 38.33 70.59% -0.849 -0.8905 -1.557
3 Thematic 21 52.38% 45.71 95.24% 0.65 0.6858 1.312
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 34.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.2146 -0.268
4 Coastline 9 22.22% 24.11 77.78% -0.272 -0.1494 0.0
4 Leaf 8 87.5% 47.88 87.5% -0.337 -0.7118 0.242
4 Other 27 22.22% 24.81 88.89% 0.14 -0.7093 0.215
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3842 0.228
4 Thematic 26 46.15% 36.58 53.85% -0.731 -0.7483 -0.137
4 Trapezoid (Default) 400 37.89% 35.28 71.5% -0.612 -0.7984 -1.732
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.574 -0.6518 0.33
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0429 0.0
5 Other 44 34.09% 32.02 72.73% -0.135 -0.6438 -0.914
5 Thematic 3 100.0% 37.0 66.67% 0.283 -0.0474 -0.241
6 Archipelago 13 15.38% 75.15 100.0% 0.574 0.2689 0.344
6 Other 50 22.0% 45.76 74.0% -0.452 -0.8465 -1.261
6 Star 18 38.89% 27.39 72.22% -1.049 -0.5739 -1.599
6 Thematic 121 21.85% 46.73 68.6% -1.848 -1.4487 -1.326
6 Two Centers (Default) 98 24.49% 44.68 79.59% -1.359 -1.3152 -0.136
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.634 0.0449 0.439
7 Other 8 37.5% 40.63 100.0% -0.313 -1.0856 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 528 39.65 54.92% -0.494 -0.2227 -0.939
Aid From Lesser Spirits 385 44.63 63.12% -0.098 -0.0589 -0.389
All Things Weaken 497 40.3 55.13% -0.63 -0.1697 -0.767
Attenuated Essence 56 41.2 66.07% 0.1 0.3057 0.331
Back Against the Wall 389 41.99 61.7% 0.159 0.321 -0.512
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 54 38.0 53.7% -0.229 0.1859 -0.253
Burn Brightest Before the End 36 35.86 52.78% -0.145 0.16 -0.673
Disintegrating Ecosystem 486 37.9 55.97% -0.47 0.0571 -0.929
Downward Spiral 568 38.69 59.68% -0.496 -0.1434 -0.784
Erosion of Will 464 37.74 48.28% -0.931 -0.5224 -1.049
Intensifying Exploitation 57 37.75 61.4% -0.182 0.2052 -0.523
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 190 48.15 81.58% 0.164 -0.3615 0.257
Memory Fades to Dust 538 40.07 59.29% -0.407 0.0745 -0.652
Power Corrodes the Spirit 522 40.38 59.39% -0.082 0.2229 -0.635
Promising Farmlands 513 39.51 54.0% -0.635 -0.0492 -0.789
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 40.45 68.42% 0.079 0.2576 0.302
Slow Dissolution of Will 68 36.79 50.0% -0.446 0.0877 -0.518
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 133 45.19 79.7% -0.2 -0.8779 -0.089
The Border of Life and Death 15 28.07 60.0% 0.007 -0.1227 -0.766
Thriving Communities 580 37.42 53.28% -0.443 0.0503 -0.926
Thriving Crops 34 32.94 55.88% -0.44 -0.3521 -0.377
Unnatural Proliferation 562 40.62 56.58% -0.2 0.097 -0.791
Untended Land Crumbles 493 40.02 59.23% -0.551 -0.1928 -0.629

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2607 50.92% 39.14 71.31% 0.166 1.006 0.247
B 2841 50.49% 38.35 70.05% 0.141 0.9194 0.031
C 3318 53.49% 39.53 70.13% 0.162 0.816 0.117
D 2328 47.75% 38.43 72.81% 0.21 1.0096 0.337
E 2507 51.5% 39.26 71.88% 0.257 0.8854 0.185
F 2280 52.36% 38.37 65.66% 0.256 0.975 -0.364
G 1999 51.51% 39.16 72.19% 0.173 0.9153 0.346
H 1924 49.61% 39.5 74.69% 0.453 1.101 0.386
East 334 37.95% 41.54 70.36% 0.549 1.1528 -0.439
Northeast 215 33.33% 43.33 70.23% -0.529 0.3523 0.429
Northwest 211 34.3% 43.27 66.35% -0.378 0.2949 -0.028
Southeast 189 32.09% 42.66 68.25% -0.591 0.0449 -0.741
Southwest 180 31.46% 43.24 68.33% 0.281 1.4456 0.109
West 324 38.75% 40.89 66.36% -1.123 -0.1592 -0.603

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 137 0.0% 34.04 72.99% -1.287 -0.4034 0.363
Not Using Events or Tokens 94 50.67% 22.7 73.4% -0.549 -0.2175 0.404
Skip Initial Invader Actions 563 15.54% 56.27 89.17% 0.81 0.275 -0.606
Start of Game Growth 825 22.18% 57.65 88.36% 1.013 0.6832 0.951
Unlimited Undo 1412 55.31% 47.5 78.75% 0.052 0.0297 0.561
Using Tokens but Not Events 1134 30.41% 32.51 79.37% -0.048 -0.1015 -0.674

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 550 100.0% 42.83 100.0% -0.0 -0.1597 0.465
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 104 100.0% 32.95 100.0% -0.142 -0.0202 0.788
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 151 100.0% 34.58 100.0% -0.059 -0.2265 0.52
Downpour Drenches the World 394 100.0% 36.95 100.0% 0.575 0.7538 0.645
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 185 100.0% 35.77 100.0% 0.351 -0.3702 0.076
Eyes Watch From the Trees 202 100.0% 34.01 100.0% -0.45 -1.0394 0.621
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 273 100.0% 44.49 100.0% 0.081 -0.3906 0.514
Finder of Paths Unseen 245 100.0% 39.27 100.0% -0.144 0.5503 0.955
Fractured Days Split the Sky 147 100.0% 48.49 100.0% -0.198 0.4865 -0.469
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 116 100.0% 38.89 100.0% 0.881 0.7796 0.557
Heart of the Wildfire 130 100.0% 30.65 100.0% -0.391 -0.1472 -0.087
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 740 100.0% 42.12 100.0% 0.088 -0.3621 0.174
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 305 100.0% 40.67 100.0% -0.175 -0.3201 -0.117
Many Minds Move as One 82 100.0% 31.35 100.0% -0.145 -0.3655 -0.237
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 337 100.0% 37.33 100.0% -0.284 -0.293 -0.219
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 152 100.0% 40.53 100.0% 0.961 0.8189 0.965
River Surges in Sunlight 121 296.83% 40.8 209.09% 0.499 0.5019 0.472
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 100 37.0% 32.4 52.0% -0.169 0.1009 -1.517
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 324 42.01% 35.0 74.07% 0.022 -0.1069 -0.433
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 427 100.0% 39.04 100.0% 0.366 0.1529 0.01
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 11 1528.57% 26.18 654.55% -0.198 0.2375 -0.748
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 117 41.38% 31.9 82.91% 0.19 0.1895 -0.416
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 142 34.04% 34.21 83.1% 0.156 0.1476 -0.461
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 49 47.92% 35.43 77.55% 0.747 0.6743 0.678
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 21 33.33% 28.05 71.43% 0.078 0.1361 0.151
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 180 125.0% 46.17 111.11% 0.234 0.1055 -0.269
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 66 31.82% 35.95 69.7% 0.31 -0.0527 0.337
Shifting Memory of Ages 447 100.0% 41.04 100.0% -0.214 0.1934 0.364
Shroud of Silent Mist 63 100.0% 30.86 100.0% -0.19 0.1254 -0.775
Starlight Seeks its Form 342 100.0% 40.53 100.0% 0.158 -0.1146 -0.138
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 253 100.0% 43.06 100.0% 0.295 -0.2004 0.277
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 143 100.0% 32.36 100.0% -0.57 -0.5394 -0.191
Thunderspeaker 176 114.77% 37.96 110.8% -0.856 -0.8746 -0.805
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 44 40.91% 29.16 56.82% -0.197 -0.2597 0.511
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 108 100.0% 36.36 100.0% 0.057 0.118 0.749
Vital Strength of the Earth 66 414.61% 26.06 289.39% -0.64 -0.0877 -1.532
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 424 35.07% 37.69 73.82% -0.206 0.0498 -0.649
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 46 57.78% 30.0 69.57% -0.463 0.4337 -0.612
Volcano Looming High 224 100.0% 35.3 100.0% -0.198 -0.1883 0.001

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 54.75%
Lightning's Boon 31.22%
Raging Storm 50.93%
Shatter Homesteads 71.32%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2477 21.03 13.73%
II 5864 31.04 74.42%
III 3729 34.74 92.38%
IV 1106 38.02 99.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 340
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3386
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4306
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1085
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 592
Lose: Invader deck ran out 35
Lose: Adversary condition 1105
Win: Sacrifice victory 94
Lose: Scenario condition 188
Win: Scenario condition 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1938
Lose: Spirit destroyed 64

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.222 Win Model: -0.191

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.089 Win Model: 0.185
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 8716 60.36% 41.04 69.26%
2 2393 48.91% 37.23 72.38%
3 1243 45.87% 38.02 70.96%
4 471 39.0% 35.09 71.76%
5 50 36.0% 31.2 70.0%
6 303 23.59% 46.03 75.91%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)