Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 44 22.73% 31.11 97.73% 0.299 -0.1482 0.334
Blitz 0 39 41.03% 33.69 74.36% -0.654 -0.197 -0.851
Dahan Insurrection 4 24 41.67% 57.79 75.0% -0.219 -0.1993 -0.094
Despicable Theft 2 14 50.0% 39.14 78.57% 0.35 0.862 0.266
Elemental Invocation 1 25 48.0% 35.68 84.0% 0.763 1.4616 -0.247
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 762 32.55% 54.04 67.85% 0.58 0.6206 -0.432
Powers Long Forgotten 1 13 76.92% 25.38 46.15% -1.426 -0.8639 -0.513
Rituals of Terror 3 10 40.0% 51.8 90.0% 0.317 0.0292 0.398
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 75.0% 38.5 75.0% -0.289 0.1409 -0.032
Second Wave 0 205 34.02% 39.33 83.9% -1.022 -0.5597 -0.007
The Great River 3 117 60.68% 36.18 40.17% -0.524 1.2421 -1.899
Varied Terrains 2 48 60.42% 39.96 77.08% -0.367 0.4611 -0.501
Ward the Shores 2 19 47.37% 37.58 73.68% -0.131 0.6134 -0.306

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6615 60.85% 42.53 73.12% -0.413 0.1368 -0.306
1 Thematic 135 45.52% 44.62 76.3% -0.447 0.5509 -0.212
2 Archipelago 6 0.0% 56.5 100.0% 0.0 0.6175 0.264
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 993 52.08% 40.85 79.36% 0.073 0.4828 -0.632
2 Coastline 231 48.05% 41.15 84.85% -0.6 -0.4643 -0.301
2 Fragment 31 74.19% 45.61 74.19% 0.772 0.767 0.671
2 Heart 85 78.82% 34.45 35.29% -1.079 -0.6039 -1.723
2 Opposite Shores 431 35.73% 35.78 76.1% 0.09 0.4437 -1.135
2 Thematic 66 47.69% 36.47 74.24% -0.822 0.1075 -0.597
2 Top to Top 53 53.85% 40.75 77.36% -0.606 -0.4793 -0.343
3 Archipelago 8 50.0% 51.25 100.0% 0.046 0.2246 0.19
3 Coastline 7 42.86% 40.71 71.43% 0.141 -0.2757 -0.511
3 Other 36 22.22% 26.33 63.89% 0.648 -0.0717 0.122
3 Round (Default) 790 45.38% 41.63 81.01% -0.113 0.0806 -0.872
3 Thematic 14 57.14% 48.79 100.0% 0.763 0.778 0.983
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 34.0 75.0% 0.179 -0.2401 -0.224
4 Coastline 8 25.0% 27.13 87.5% 0.0 -0.0727 0.0
4 Leaf 7 85.71% 50.86 100.0% 0.0 -0.0965 0.331
4 Other 21 19.05% 25.48 90.48% 0.481 -0.1355 0.189
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.297
4 Thematic 20 50.0% 40.4 60.0% -0.451 -0.1679 -0.307
4 Trapezoid (Default) 283 37.73% 37.1 75.62% -0.297 -0.1092 -1.249
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.093 -0.2904 0.064
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1073 0.0
5 Other 32 40.63% 31.47 71.88% 0.042 -0.5888 -0.331
5 Thematic 2 100.0% 44.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.9744 -0.368
6 Archipelago 7 28.57% 72.57 100.0% 0.046 -0.0245 0.196
6 Other 32 31.25% 37.38 68.75% -0.952 -1.1936 -0.611
6 Star 14 50.0% 32.0 78.57% -0.488 0.0576 -1.469
6 Thematic 84 16.67% 52.25 75.0% -1.175 -1.1288 -0.599
6 Two Centers (Default) 73 28.77% 52.66 90.41% 0.214 0.6768 0.957
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.054 -0.1668 0.156
7 Other 5 40.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.005 -0.3554 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 411 41.7 60.1% -1.392 0.338 -1.217
Aid From Lesser Spirits 324 45.17 64.51% -0.868 0.7072 -0.815
All Things Weaken 417 41.67 59.23% -1.238 0.6393 -1.088
Attenuated Essence 2 54.0 100.0% 0.293 1.1478 0.0
Back Against the Wall 319 42.58 63.95% -0.766 0.8709 -1.057
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 38.0 50.0% -0.193 1.2547 -0.326
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 65.0 100.0% 0.199 1.207 0.236
Disintegrating Ecosystem 371 39.62 58.49% -1.064 0.7786 -1.358
Downward Spiral 456 39.93 63.6% -0.869 0.8292 -1.157
Erosion of Will 378 39.29 52.12% -1.603 0.2972 -1.322
Intensifying Exploitation 2 66.0 100.0% 0.269 1.1576 0.237
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 159 49.43 86.79% 0.279 0.7795 0.238
Memory Fades to Dust 433 41.2 63.28% -1.169 0.7066 -1.037
Power Corrodes the Spirit 436 40.96 61.7% -0.795 0.9096 -1.09
Promising Farmlands 414 40.47 57.0% -1.328 0.5476 -1.198
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 109 47.13 87.16% 0.204 0.4146 -0.086
Thriving Communities 473 37.77 55.81% -1.581 0.2897 -1.382
Unnatural Proliferation 469 41.23 59.28% -1.099 0.655 -1.195
Untended Land Crumbles 389 41.75 63.24% -1.214 0.6005 -0.972

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2040 51.41% 40.91 74.8% 0.402 1.179 0.118
B 2218 52.07% 40.48 74.53% 0.013 0.716 -0.053
C 2541 54.66% 41.46 74.26% 0.15 0.6773 0.042
D 1748 48.25% 40.57 78.6% 0.387 1.1214 0.222
E 1878 51.2% 41.47 78.54% 0.464 1.0477 0.366
F 1552 51.42% 40.43 74.61% -0.033 0.6746 -0.056
G 1525 51.91% 40.98 76.26% 0.329 0.9712 0.253
H 1420 51.45% 41.67 79.15% 0.231 0.8762 0.243
East 235 36.6% 46.24 77.02% -0.196 0.3957 -0.419
Northeast 154 32.47% 47.57 75.32% 0.255 0.9318 0.658
Northwest 150 33.11% 47.29 72.0% -0.312 0.126 -0.407
Southeast 126 26.19% 48.57 76.19% -0.245 0.4182 -0.321
Southwest 133 29.32% 47.15 72.93% -0.375 0.7964 -0.129
West 234 39.22% 44.41 73.08% -0.997 -0.1795 -0.483

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 116 0.0% 38.03 77.59% -1.961 0.1147 0.084
Not Using Events or Tokens 74 40.98% 24.32 82.43% -0.134 0.0373 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 479 16.1% 57.49 92.28% 0.178 -0.8814 -0.302
Start of Game Growth 702 22.9% 58.72 90.46% 1.032 0.61 0.523
Unlimited Undo 1163 57.13% 49.69 83.58% 0.363 -0.0528 0.711
Using Tokens but Not Events 845 32.61% 33.99 83.08% -0.135 -0.0197 -0.901

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 393 100.0% 45.35 100.0% 1.22 1.0404 0.715
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 70 100.0% 36.87 100.0% -0.683 -0.6691 0.461
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 114 100.0% 37.46 100.0% 1.227 0.982 1.019
Downpour Drenches the World 343 100.0% 37.84 100.0% 0.397 0.7849 0.29
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 18 100.0% 39.17 100.0% 0.07 0.3052 0.544
Eyes Watch From the Trees 153 100.0% 36.76 100.0% 0.159 -0.3141 1.041
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 180 100.0% 45.82 100.0% -0.453 -0.9002 0.405
Finder of Paths Unseen 191 100.0% 41.73 100.0% 0.856 1.2192 0.7
Fractured Days Split the Sky 83 100.0% 57.46 100.0% 0.632 0.7357 0.635
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 82 100.0% 42.33 100.0% -0.514 -0.578 0.269
Heart of the Wildfire 84 100.0% 34.5 100.0% -0.248 0.0113 -0.615
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 529 100.0% 46.83 100.0% 0.777 0.1941 0.393
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 225 100.0% 44.72 100.0% 0.218 0.0972 0.209
Many Minds Move as One 56 100.0% 32.0 100.0% -1.032 -1.6548 -0.35
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 245 100.0% 39.94 100.0% -0.495 -0.6227 -0.344
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 106 100.0% 38.18 100.0% 0.606 0.5224 0.637
River Surges in Sunlight 71 372.97% 37.58 245.07% 1.037 0.8452 -0.183
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 83 39.76% 34.9 54.22% 0.053 0.3409 -1.44
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 272 43.49% 36.7 76.1% 0.138 -0.2252 -0.67
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 290 100.0% 41.45 100.0% -0.33 -0.5029 0.315
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8 2011.11% 26.63 737.5% -0.33 0.0633 -0.908
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 104 42.31% 32.2 82.69% -0.891 -0.7946 -0.289
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 126 34.4% 34.21 84.13% -0.932 -0.8569 -0.477
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 40 52.5% 36.65 77.5% 0.727 0.6914 0.495
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 18 38.89% 31.56 77.78% -0.369 -0.3651 -0.254
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 153 103.92% 47.41 100.0% -0.746 -0.946 -0.671
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 6 0.0% 34.17 100.0% 0.233 0.5281 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 314 100.0% 45.32 100.0% 0.242 0.4707 0.092
Shroud of Silent Mist 42 100.0% 33.14 100.0% 0.381 0.5644 -0.222
Starlight Seeks its Form 267 100.0% 42.58 100.0% 0.142 -0.0138 -0.423
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 205 100.0% 45.36 100.0% -0.049 -0.3119 -0.113
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 106 100.0% 34.03 100.0% -0.193 -0.1304 -0.197
Thunderspeaker 136 100.0% 42.32 100.0% 0.099 0.0227 -0.203
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 80 100.0% 38.66 100.0% -0.278 -0.5396 0.726
Vital Strength of the Earth 47 435.29% 32.0 300.0% -0.207 0.546 -1.038
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 356 36.12% 37.63 75.28% -0.86 -0.2816 -0.866
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 32 56.25% 31.72 81.25% -0.566 0.5836 -0.055
Volcano Looming High 155 100.0% 38.63 100.0% -0.362 -0.3661 0.389

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 53.95%
Lightning's Boon 28.76%
Raging Storm 49.69%
Shatter Homesteads 72.51%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1461 22.63 18.82%
II 4712 31.12 76.04%
III 3029 34.7 92.51%
IV 922 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 275
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2752
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3537
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 906
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 36
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26
Lose: Adversary condition 708
Win: Sacrifice victory 81
Lose: Scenario condition 166
Win: Scenario condition 31
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1560
Lose: Spirit destroyed 46

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.007 Win Model: -0.246

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.028 Win Model: -0.251
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 6833 60.62% 42.67 73.29%
2 1848 48.59% 39.24 77.16%
3 855 44.3% 41.12 80.94%
4 340 39.39% 36.98 75.88%
5 35 40.0% 29.97 71.43%
6 213 25.82% 49.42 81.22%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)