Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 31 48.39% 21.65 67.74% -1.143 -1.4268 -0.032
Blitz 0 1229 70.13% 18.89 49.06% -0.645 -0.4845 -1.707
Dahan Insurrection 4 2612 33.84% 55.82 77.76% 0.936 0.5558 1.259
Despicable Theft 2 157 63.69% 28.78 59.24% -0.91 -0.1422 0.13
Elemental Invocation 1 244 69.26% 25.44 56.15% -0.652 0.073 -0.951
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6610 32.67% 47.24 78.2% 1.514 0.8823 1.401
Powers Long Forgotten 1 633 67.25% 31.42 59.24% -0.765 -0.1579 -0.427
Rituals of Terror 3 426 75.12% 31.11 48.12% -0.595 -0.4355 -0.025
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 420 90.17% 26.17 38.33% -1.372 -0.3092 -0.323
Second Wave 0 4889 62.89% 23.67 60.87% -0.241 -0.164 0.116
The Great River 3 379 77.57% 27.84 54.62% -0.622 0.6021 -0.315
Varied Terrains 2 62 74.19% 28.35 54.84% -0.047 0.5774 -0.807
Ward the Shores 2 472 78.04% 25.65 32.63% -0.665 0.3774 -1.066

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 101301 72.03% 24.17 60.0% 0.293 0.3991 0.284
1 Thematic 5222 77.76% 27.67 45.17% -0.624 -0.0954 -0.631
2 Archipelago 56 55.36% 33.0 78.57% 0.044 0.3382 1.204
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27476 63.95% 29.47 66.37% 0.501 0.6074 0.457
2 Coastline 2838 64.51% 28.8 70.68% 0.662 0.5745 0.591
2 Fragment 706 68.21% 23.94 57.22% -0.081 -0.278 0.45
2 Heart 368 71.67% 24.5 59.51% 0.936 0.6499 0.482
2 Opposite Shores 5354 62.61% 29.05 66.25% 0.332 0.3861 -0.343
2 Thematic 2449 64.45% 33.31 55.82% -0.337 0.1124 -0.389
2 Top to Top 692 63.53% 27.99 65.17% 0.728 0.6347 0.483
3 Archipelago 24 41.67% 33.13 87.5% 0.325 -1.2823 0.019
3 Coastline 128 65.63% 32.71 67.19% 0.307 -0.2042 -0.051
3 Other 420 58.66% 28.0 67.38% 0.867 1.4396 -0.042
3 Round (Default) 13400 53.8% 32.73 71.63% 0.494 0.3797 0.365
3 Sunrise 66 58.46% 33.42 74.24% 0.0 0.2827 0.039
3 Thematic 704 53.7% 36.12 59.52% 0.363 0.3673 -0.53
4 Archipelago 33 50.0% 29.76 60.61% -0.026 -0.7432 0.426
4 Coastline 51 41.18% 28.14 80.39% -1.343 -1.1235 0.0
4 Leaf 70 55.07% 29.19 70.0% 0.742 0.3685 -1.072
4 Other 441 42.43% 38.71 80.05% 0.363 -0.6809 0.432
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 45.45% 0.0 -0.35 -0.315
4 Thematic 3172 36.44% 51.68 73.96% -0.084 -0.3331 -0.665
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9293 44.91% 33.05 76.8% 0.293 0.1655 0.109
5 Archipelago 12 58.33% 31.42 75.0% 0.206 -0.957 -0.122
5 Coastline 6 16.67% 26.17 100.0% 0.446 -0.3258 0.498
5 Other 201 53.81% 33.78 77.61% 0.442 0.1375 0.788
5 Thematic 32 56.25% 41.53 78.13% -0.224 -0.1675 -0.31
6 Archipelago 14 14.29% 35.64 71.43% 0.0 0.2932 -0.808
6 Coastline 6 66.67% 26.83 83.33% -0.452 -1.1473 0.0
6 Other 68 28.79% 27.13 76.47% -0.355 -0.7717 -1.475
6 Star 61 44.26% 34.84 70.49% 0.404 0.4271 0.297
6 Thematic 252 31.73% 33.22 61.51% -1.578 -1.2828 -1.345
6 Two Centers (Default) 345 29.33% 29.39 76.52% -0.532 -0.438 0.265
7 Archipelago 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.317 -1.4015 0.042
7 Other 6 40.0% 34.67 66.67% 0.45 -0.1109 0.59

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9405 26.53 49.01% -0.276 -0.0463 -0.335
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7208 28.74 53.08% 0.376 0.3017 -0.081
All Things Weaken 3955 25.93 46.5% 0.085 0.4533 -0.445
Attenuated Essence 122 22.68 38.52% 0.034 0.1247 -0.998
Back Against the Wall 6859 27.19 49.16% 0.231 0.2822 -0.326
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 93 18.42 32.26% -0.419 -0.2012 -0.542
Burn Brightest Before the End 68 24.6 39.71% -0.053 0.1158 -0.71
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8640 21.97 41.56% -0.761 -0.3565 -0.676
Downward Spiral 18478 22.29 54.46% 0.054 0.2946 -0.408
Erosion of Will 9210 25.14 46.23% -0.054 0.2496 -0.515
Intensifying Exploitation 109 18.79 29.36% -0.275 0.0038 -0.624
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1239 33.34 84.58% 0.9 0.4111 0.195
Memory Fades to Dust 18342 21.77 50.46% 0.052 0.3915 -0.555
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3853 25.7 49.44% -0.101 0.1222 -0.528
Promising Farmlands 8938 22.91 43.09% -0.42 0.039 -0.82
Shattered Fragments of Power 87 25.86 41.38% -0.094 -0.0599 -0.403
Slow Dissolution of Will 96 20.57 29.17% -0.345 0.0496 -1.358
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 692 33.93 87.86% 0.474 -0.2158 0.662
The Border of Life and Death 27 19.93 51.85% 0.425 0.0918 -0.667
Thriving Communities 3581 23.31 41.86% -0.155 0.1888 -0.829
Thriving Crops 31 18.74 45.16% 0.143 -0.0438 -0.923
Tipping Point 4075 24.81 47.95% 0.0 -0.1755 -0.421
Unnatural Proliferation 4060 23.6 37.22% -0.62 -0.4426 -0.644
Untended Land Crumbles 3752 24.5 45.15% 0.052 0.3121 -0.629

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 43958 63.9% 27.03 64.13% -0.742 0.0298 -0.213
B 53596 61.59% 28.28 67.12% -0.497 0.2575 -0.07
C 46768 63.33% 27.88 65.78% -0.67 -0.0652 0.039
D 46618 59.72% 28.67 69.19% -0.286 0.442 0.133
E 13282 65.04% 29.06 62.92% -0.483 0.1127 0.033
F 20617 60.13% 30.31 67.81% -0.115 0.5439 0.343
G 20326 61.72% 29.86 67.31% -0.192 0.4885 0.206
H 17594 63.78% 28.63 64.69% -0.589 0.0055 -0.07
East 8553 55.02% 39.71 61.52% -1.111 -0.5292 0.574
Northeast 5760 51.73% 42.05 63.33% -0.373 0.3122 0.246
Northwest 5220 50.82% 42.28 63.7% -1.037 -0.2073 0.056
Southeast 1437 50.24% 36.29 63.47% -0.725 0.0239 0.408
Southwest 1304 51.19% 34.97 62.88% -0.059 0.9358 0.121
West 8292 56.52% 38.54 58.67% -0.283 0.6683 -0.299

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5323 0.0% 15.13 57.19% -1.247 -0.4618 -0.72
Not Using Events or Tokens 23164 67.84% 20.58 64.31% -0.035 0.3223 -0.374
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4301 33.94% 36.92 84.26% 0.436 -0.2013 -0.455
Start of Game Growth 5693 37.74% 36.2 81.82% 0.26 -0.0359 0.709
Unlimited Undo 16581 59.53% 30.05 72.4% 0.217 0.198 0.694
Using Tokens but Not Events 16367 57.08% 26.29 72.35% -0.271 -0.3171 -0.026

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 15248 100.0% 38.29 100.0% 0.08 -0.0742 0.663
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4503 100.0% 27.28 100.0% -0.677 -0.5416 -0.162
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3026 100.0% 31.37 100.0% 0.059 -0.0713 -0.02
Downpour Drenches the World 541 100.0% 27.38 100.0% -0.312 -0.1228 -0.494
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 221 100.0% 26.26 100.0% 0.62 -0.1753 0.253
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3293 100.0% 33.05 100.0% 0.457 -0.1364 -0.068
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2985 100.0% 32.15 100.0% 0.078 -0.4196 -0.181
Finder of Paths Unseen 304 100.0% 29.6 100.0% -0.641 0.0311 0.883
Fractured Days Split the Sky 851 100.0% 36.19 100.0% -0.005 0.5671 0.332
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 666 100.0% 31.19 100.0% 0.336 0.2504 -0.26
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8987 100.0% 33.55 100.0% -0.037 -0.4781 0.245
Lightning's Swift Strike 5416 108.18% 30.99 104.91% 0.47 0.6755 0.073
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 139 61.31% 30.67 61.15% 0.076 -0.4191 0.395
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 320 54.09% 36.0 71.88% -0.204 -0.3623 0.286
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 501 50.2% 36.28 75.65% 0.611 0.4887 0.308
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1891 100.0% 32.57 100.0% -0.18 -0.3177 -0.401
Many Minds Move as One 1010 100.0% 32.45 100.0% 0.123 -0.0772 0.472
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 9456 100.0% 37.31 100.0% -0.048 -0.0745 0.671
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2804 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.316 0.1522 0.163
River Surges in Sunlight 7668 104.55% 37.49 104.03% -0.537 -0.4673 0.597
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 649 57.48% 29.93 61.02% -0.185 0.0996 -0.238
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 149 44.44% 32.29 62.42% 0.293 0.1622 -0.308
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7537 100.0% 31.74 100.0% 0.216 -0.0404 0.254
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3475 107.77% 28.17 106.68% -0.912 -0.4105 -0.442
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 53 44.0% 26.55 58.49% 0.541 0.4696 -0.208
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 57 45.45% 32.19 64.91% -0.244 -0.3039 -0.44
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 310 60.2% 29.76 65.81% 0.21 0.1632 -0.929
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 245 62.3% 27.86 65.71% -1.027 -0.8298 0.112
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4787 100.63% 35.16 100.52% 0.423 0.2446 0.535
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 52 42.31% 26.19 51.92% 0.505 0.0843 -0.725
Shifting Memory of Ages 587 100.0% 26.88 100.0% -0.506 -0.1425 0.105
Shroud of Silent Mist 689 100.0% 28.11 100.0% 0.184 0.4348 -0.031
Starlight Seeks its Form 732 100.0% 33.01 100.0% -0.166 -0.4233 0.117
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4927 100.0% 31.52 100.0% 0.164 -0.321 0.026
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2782 100.0% 35.97 100.0% -0.167 -0.104 0.813
Thunderspeaker 5252 100.42% 33.09 100.34% -0.037 -0.0539 0.325
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 35 37.14% 25.43 48.57% 0.129 0.0451 -1.537
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 3234 100.0% 27.93 100.0% -0.52 -0.4397 -0.728
Vital Strength of the Earth 5419 103.89% 26.96 103.27% -0.196 0.3377 -0.27
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 130 44.09% 33.93 71.54% 0.514 0.7652 0.111
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 366 61.43% 29.9 61.75% 0.124 0.9547 -0.245
Volcano Looming High 1544 100.0% 30.16 100.0% 0.238 0.2028 0.09

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.74%
Flame's Fury 95.32%
Flash-Fires 81.88%
Threatening Flames 92.09%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 49114 20.49 32.95%
II 86180 31.02 67.87%
III 33228 34.76 87.67%
IV 6806 38.06 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 16051
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27894
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 55156
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6676
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2175
Lose: Invader deck ran out 692
Lose: Adversary condition 8731
Win: Sacrifice victory 1834
Lose: Scenario condition 1335
Win: Scenario condition 2958
Lose: Blight pool ran out 50750
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1076

Difficulty

Score Model: 0.836 Win Model: -0.162

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.239 Win Model: 0.185
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 106681 72.32% 24.34 59.23%
2 40073 64.04% 29.45 65.66%
3 14581 53.62% 32.84 71.63%
4 13112 42.78% 37.73 76.22%
5 135 49.62% 30.19 71.85%
6 746 30.98% 31.1 70.91%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)