Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1203 69.53% 18.96 -4.068 49.04% -0.968 -0.404
Dahan Insurrection 4 2278 41.01% 56.67 11.819 75.77% 0.252 0.654
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6496 31.94% 47.15 7.904 80.11% 0.723 1.108
Powers Long Forgotten 1 799 65.75% 33.49 1.204 60.95% -0.318 0.1355
Rituals of Terror 3 451 74.44% 31.67 2.317 47.01% -0.882 -0.2581
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 490 91.99% 26.92 0.109 37.55% -1.04 -0.4127
Second Wave 0 4905 64.95% 24.29 -1.695 60.31% -0.856 -0.4285
The Great River 3 105 77.14% 26.46 0.003 48.57% -1.215 0.2558
Ward the Shores 2 540 76.37% 26.21 -1.167 34.81% -1.451 -0.4254

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 65454 72.13% 24.26 -1.188 60.68% -0.807 -0.4566
1 Thematic 3659 78.77% 28.42 -0.087 43.13% -1.316 -0.8434
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18044 64.57% 29.85 0.668 67.3% -0.193 -0.008
2 Coastline 1871 62.75% 29.3 0.358 72.96% 0.023 0.1412
2 Fragment 473 66.22% 24.55 -1.64 60.25% -0.734 -0.2883
2 Heart 232 68.3% 22.98 -2.079 62.07% -0.476 -0.1839
2 Opposite Shores 3311 63.44% 30.02 0.304 67.53% -0.267 -0.0436
2 Thematic 1795 66.87% 33.34 0.814 54.71% -0.894 -0.8863
2 Top to Top 443 60.46% 27.39 -0.412 67.72% -0.384 -0.2731
3 Coastline 57 61.4% 32.88 0.984 64.91% 0.297 0.2613
3 Other 286 58.63% 28.76 -0.933 67.13% -0.12 0.3105
3 Round (Default) 8832 52.79% 33.29 0.967 73.34% 0.313 0.3397
3 Sunrise 51 52.0% 33.59 1.094 70.59% 0.103 -0.157
3 Thematic 454 51.98% 36.46 1.402 61.45% -0.599 -0.9812
4 Coastline 21 33.33% 29.29 -0.78 90.48% 0.862 1.2004
4 Leaf 47 51.06% 32.77 -0.772 72.34% 0.159 0.2212
4 Other 335 42.51% 40.13 2.104 79.1% 0.6 0.661
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 3.931 100.0% 0.439 -0.3563
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 -2.327 45.45% -0.221 -0.0942
4 Thematic 2242 38.59% 51.04 4.854 73.55% 0.122 -1.0161
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6629 45.07% 33.69 0.296 77.48% 0.609 0.5736
5 Other 60 53.45% 36.5 2.363 90.0% 1.886 1.651
5 Thematic 14 50.0% 53.79 7.515 92.86% 1.476 -1.248

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6500 26.79 -1.463 49.25% -2.289 -0.226
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5021 28.66 -0.675 52.78% -2.184 -0.2668
All Things Weaken 1575 25.74 -1.953 45.21% -2.452 -0.2898
Back Against the Wall 4678 27.1 -1.602 48.74% -2.427 -0.3318
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6041 22.35 -3.708 42.08% -2.645 -0.4221
Downward Spiral 13254 22.32 -2.711 55.22% -2.232 -0.22
Erosion of Will 6286 25.09 -2.22 45.7% -2.47 -0.2618
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 493 33.62 1.847 84.58% -0.677 0.039
Memory Fades to Dust 13126 21.73 -3.041 50.54% -2.453 -0.2374
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1586 25.81 -1.954 48.42% -2.327 -0.3198
Promising Farmlands 6244 23.17 -3.317 43.0% -2.608 -0.3902
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 292 34.89 2.162 86.99% -0.425 0.0013
Thriving Communities 1410 23.33 -3.234 40.64% -2.651 -0.5387
Tipping Point 4071 24.8 -2.508 47.9% -2.375 -0.162
Unnatural Proliferation 1605 23.86 -2.942 36.26% -2.895 -0.8141
Untended Land Crumbles 1575 25.74 -2.021 47.24% -2.363 -0.2666

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18234 70.82% 24.5 -1.247 59.58% -0.266 -1.3235
B 24974 65.57% 27.07 -0.032 65.26% 0.02 -1.1256
C 19941 68.96% 26.02 -0.509 63.26% -0.09 -1.4729
D 21184 62.36% 27.89 0.504 69.14% 0.136 -1.0068
E 3001 71.88% 28.29 0.081 58.85% -0.051 -1.2806
F 6636 63.23% 29.67 0.911 68.46% 0.189 -1.0181
G 6976 65.84% 29.18 0.527 65.75% 0.113 -1.0855
H 5383 71.7% 26.52 -0.679 59.54% -0.233 -1.4393
East 2181 48.32% 46.03 4.635 68.23% 0.242 -0.6657
Northeast 1622 70.79% 32.86 1.045 48.71% -0.158 -1.0004
Northwest 1774 66.61% 34.0 0.625 54.74% -0.074 -0.9857
Southeast 262 69.47% 31.55 0.584 59.16% 0.354 -0.6007
Southwest 228 64.47% 27.09 -1.984 55.7% 0.019 -0.5875
West 1930 69.19% 33.12 0.597 46.48% -0.145 -0.7794

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3511 0.0% 14.96 -5.441 58.02% -2.89 -0.8585
Not Using Events or Tokens 15411 70.4% 20.0 -2.681 63.92% -0.27 -0.0443
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3066 32.91% 37.61 3.339 85.13% 1.072 0.364
Start of Game Growth 3845 36.88% 36.87 2.778 81.9% 0.051 -0.4067
Unlimited Undo 10700 59.42% 30.55 1.278 73.09% 0.398 0.0026
Using Tokens but Not Events 11320 56.35% 27.03 -0.327 75.57% 0.175 0.1273

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 10377 49.98% 38.57 3.394 78.1% 0.606 0.7525
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3495 64.19% 28.03 -1.163 65.32% -0.357 -0.1233
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1933 53.07% 32.96 0.632 72.37% 0.038 -0.0569
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2075 52.05% 34.13 1.394 75.23% 0.195 -0.1807
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1795 51.78% 32.38 0.484 73.48% 0.09 -0.1383
Fractured Days Split the Sky 306 44.22% 40.39 2.966 77.12% 0.062 0.3855
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6668 50.49% 33.7 0.656 73.44% 0.033 -0.2691
Lightning's Swift Strike 4600 55.36% 31.67 0.388 71.67% 0.018 0.2848
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 375 63.9% 34.29 0.834 66.4% -0.094 -0.4936
Many Minds Move as One 451 58.48% 34.07 1.275 73.17% 0.243 -0.286
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6717 51.72% 37.45 2.189 74.81% 0.247 0.0443
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1798 54.61% 33.89 0.921 71.25% 0.039 0.0869
River Surges in Sunlight 5888 50.38% 36.99 1.847 73.03% -0.118 0.0455
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5552 53.49% 31.88 0.045 70.14% -0.195 -0.0481
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3116 61.59% 29.15 -0.646 67.52% -0.211 0.236
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3686 48.98% 35.48 1.074 72.19% -0.156 -0.2265
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2717 59.25% 32.15 0.03 64.74% -0.201 -0.2207
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1796 48.51% 38.03 2.491 77.45% 0.345 0.5628
Thunderspeaker 3983 52.76% 33.51 0.945 69.95% -0.074 -0.0176
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1744 70.11% 29.51 -1.3 60.84% -0.331 -0.2928
Vital Strength of the Earth 4456 52.32% 27.38 -1.483 67.8% -0.487 0.3703

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.97%
Flame's Fury 94.89%
Flash-Fires 81.58%
Threatening Flames 92.11%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31278 22.31 34.86%
II 56472 30.64 67.73%
III 22014 34.16 87.54%
IV 4562 37.43 99.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6764
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11494
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22678
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2751
Lose: Invader deck ran out 463
Lose: Adversary condition 5679
Win: Sacrifice victory 1189
Lose: Scenario condition 923
Win: Scenario condition 1914
Lose: Blight pool ran out 33565
Lose: Spirit destroyed 743

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.072 Win Model: -0.181

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.67 Win Model: -0.251
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 69118 72.49% 24.48 59.75%
2 26203 64.44% 29.88 66.73%
3 9690 53.01% 33.32 72.55%
4 9315 43.35% 38.09 76.63%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-10-28 01:48:28 (Pacific Time)