Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 66.67% 29.83 83.33% 0.509 0.6177 0.333
Blitz 0 1144 71.0% 19.22 49.48% -0.152 0.1155 -1.839
Dahan Insurrection 4 2205 36.64% 58.06 79.23% 1.044 1.3764 1.279
Despicable Theft 2 128 65.63% 30.1 60.16% -0.768 -0.5175 -0.378
Elemental Invocation 1 201 71.64% 25.96 58.21% -0.586 0.0622 -1.151
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5923 31.94% 47.53 79.39% 0.743 0.9089 1.359
Powers Long Forgotten 1 589 68.94% 32.39 60.1% 0.117 0.4425 -0.332
Rituals of Terror 3 389 76.36% 31.65 48.59% -0.965 -1.0745 -0.085
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 378 91.73% 27.1 38.89% -0.585 0.0721 -0.306
Second Wave 0 4477 63.62% 23.83 60.96% -0.793 -0.3223 -0.171
The Great River 3 311 79.1% 28.53 55.95% 0.032 1.5324 -0.452
Varied Terrains 2 23 78.26% 32.26 56.52% -0.445 0.0901 -0.28
Ward the Shores 2 450 79.45% 25.88 32.44% -2.402 -1.2152 -1.274

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 93101 72.31% 24.42 60.76% -0.314 0.1335 0.213
1 Thematic 4959 78.5% 27.81 45.19% -0.068 0.5347 -0.713
2 Archipelago 46 52.17% 36.2 84.78% 0.624 1.2895 1.07
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25385 64.32% 29.86 67.29% -0.62 -0.2287 0.453
2 Coastline 2595 65.2% 29.33 71.56% -0.319 -0.2311 0.556
2 Fragment 662 68.63% 24.27 57.85% 0.059 0.1251 0.205
2 Heart 320 69.9% 23.67 60.62% -0.407 -0.1346 -0.05
2 Opposite Shores 4849 63.49% 29.6 67.17% -0.299 0.1936 -0.479
2 Thematic 2308 64.83% 33.76 56.89% 0.047 0.5149 -0.51
2 Top to Top 615 63.52% 27.94 66.02% -0.251 0.0309 0.368
3 Archipelago 17 41.18% 32.53 82.35% 0.118 -0.2655 -0.059
3 Coastline 108 66.67% 33.82 69.44% 0.792 0.1533 -0.001
3 Other 392 58.79% 28.34 67.86% 0.3 -0.7887 -0.25
3 Round (Default) 12104 53.93% 33.04 72.75% -0.282 -0.014 0.383
3 Sunrise 65 59.38% 33.08 73.85% 0.613 0.3932 -0.017
3 Thematic 662 55.0% 36.03 59.06% 0.517 0.2937 -0.542
4 Archipelago 22 66.67% 32.5 54.55% 0.0 -0.8515 0.421
4 Coastline 43 39.53% 31.35 90.7% 0.17 0.1781 0.0
4 Leaf 61 56.67% 30.89 72.13% 0.0 0.2406 -0.996
4 Other 427 42.69% 39.17 80.8% 1.14 0.6941 0.398
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 45.45% 0.0 0.0 -0.266
4 Thematic 2898 37.37% 52.53 75.81% -1.239 -1.1432 -0.324
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8722 44.86% 33.54 77.7% -0.052 -0.1893 0.143
5 Archipelago 11 63.64% 32.0 72.73% 0.0 -0.4166 -0.107
5 Coastline 4 25.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.227 -0.2855 0.0
5 Other 140 54.74% 35.18 78.57% 0.216 0.485 0.208
5 Thematic 27 55.56% 44.63 81.48% 0.3 0.193 -0.337
6 Archipelago 9 22.22% 27.89 77.78% 0.02 -0.495 0.0
6 Coastline 2 100.0% 26.5 100.0% 0.106 -0.3334 0.0
6 Other 33 38.71% 24.3 72.73% -0.31 0.5783 -1.585
6 Star 40 42.5% 36.73 65.0% -0.522 0.3723 0.562
6 Thematic 139 35.29% 40.56 76.98% -1.352 -0.9889 -0.556
6 Two Centers (Default) 198 32.32% 34.12 89.39% -0.099 0.2796 0.472
7 Other 3 100.0% 60.67 100.0% 0.016 -0.9197 0.53

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8834 26.62 49.24% -2.193 -0.3614 -0.633
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6785 28.69 52.87% -1.837 -0.1828 -0.402
All Things Weaken 3408 25.98 47.1% -2.301 -0.3245 -0.758
Back Against the Wall 6451 27.17 49.03% -1.677 0.1821 -0.631
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8170 22.17 41.85% -2.222 -0.2472 -0.943
Downward Spiral 17365 22.4 54.78% -1.972 -0.0696 -0.678
Erosion of Will 8664 25.25 46.36% -2.181 -0.1375 -0.816
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1065 34.11 85.35% 0.023 0.5957 -0.031
Memory Fades to Dust 17213 21.87 50.65% -1.985 -0.0056 -0.873
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3366 26.01 50.36% -1.843 0.0491 -0.794
Promising Farmlands 8423 23.08 43.3% -2.4 -0.3607 -1.105
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 590 34.77 89.32% 0.107 0.5481 0.628
Thriving Communities 3100 23.45 42.55% -2.347 -0.3829 -1.068
Tipping Point 4075 24.81 47.95% 0.254 0.7429 -0.708
Unnatural Proliferation 3544 23.79 37.9% -2.937 -1.0307 -0.916
Untended Land Crumbles 3255 24.89 46.36% -2.082 -0.0473 -0.838

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 40694 64.43% 27.33 64.86% -0.261 0.5071 -0.198
B 49962 61.91% 28.6 67.9% -0.142 0.551 -0.141
C 43297 63.72% 28.21 66.63% -0.163 0.4016 0.047
D 43490 59.89% 28.95 69.87% 0.179 0.9474 0.083
E 11242 66.24% 29.65 64.02% 0.131 0.7305 -0.02
F 18059 60.62% 30.97 69.51% -0.241 0.4687 0.422
G 18017 62.08% 30.39 68.4% -0.145 0.5806 0.192
H 15593 64.34% 29.21 65.82% -0.193 0.4975 -0.002
East 7881 56.37% 40.23 62.49% -0.236 0.3863 0.708
Northeast 5278 53.29% 42.68 64.46% -0.53 0.1511 0.097
Northwest 4763 52.54% 43.12 65.13% -0.442 0.6253 -0.001
Southeast 1185 53.09% 37.72 66.84% -0.101 0.6272 0.21
Southwest 1050 53.68% 36.84 67.71% 0.271 1.2418 0.075
West 7624 57.95% 39.16 59.75% -0.758 0.2454 -0.522

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4884 0.0% 15.38 58.6% -1.846 0.1653 -1.007
Not Using Events or Tokens 21317 68.73% 20.74 64.94% -0.42 -0.2054 -0.404
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4053 33.9% 37.08 85.02% 0.054 -0.0395 -0.551
Start of Game Growth 5341 37.79% 36.42 82.46% 0.452 -0.2555 0.422
Unlimited Undo 15556 59.67% 30.35 73.13% 0.453 -0.2469 0.679
Using Tokens but Not Events 14768 56.38% 26.89 75.03% -0.356 -0.4013 0.238

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 14048 100.0% 38.89 100.0% 0.837 0.7027 0.671
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4235 100.0% 27.84 100.0% -0.072 -0.026 -0.374
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2786 100.0% 31.84 100.0% 0.198 0.0785 -0.111
Downpour Drenches the World 151 100.0% 35.45 100.0% 0.064 0.4127 -0.09
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2973 100.0% 33.66 100.0% 0.35 -0.0707 -0.149
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2705 100.0% 32.47 100.0% -0.094 -0.6561 -0.359
Finder of Paths Unseen 106 100.0% 35.35 100.0% 0.182 0.5833 0.276
Fractured Days Split the Sky 732 100.0% 37.99 100.0% 0.589 0.6435 0.733
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 466 100.0% 31.85 100.0% 0.23 0.2211 -0.575
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8474 100.0% 33.86 100.0% 0.721 0.1982 0.098
Lightning's Swift Strike 5164 106.48% 31.23 103.16% 0.266 0.5093 0.001
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 37 66.67% 35.86 75.68% 0.023 -0.8303 0.53
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 278 51.26% 37.21 74.82% -0.278 -0.8877 0.27
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 388 51.17% 37.39 78.35% -0.039 -0.4166 0.001
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1507 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.486 -0.704 -0.444
Many Minds Move as One 875 100.0% 33.64 100.0% 0.283 -0.2557 0.462
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8643 100.0% 37.69 100.0% 0.276 -0.0412 0.739
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2557 100.0% 32.81 100.0% -0.366 -0.3822 0.012
River Surges in Sunlight 7224 103.33% 37.88 103.1% -0.009 0.0433 0.599
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 544 59.21% 30.36 61.95% -0.361 -0.0037 -0.191
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 48 50.0% 31.13 64.58% -0.863 -1.0931 -1.092
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7049 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.096 -0.13 0.167
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3339 106.16% 28.58 105.12% -0.387 0.0804 -0.574
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 16 43.75% 27.38 50.0% -1.417 -1.3191 -0.172
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 17 23.53% 40.76 82.35% -0.386 -0.5609 -0.451
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 276 60.89% 30.35 65.94% 0.027 -0.0323 -1.216
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 214 63.38% 29.17 69.16% -0.037 0.1236 0.174
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4576 100.0% 35.39 100.0% 0.188 -0.1145 0.371
Shifting Memory of Ages 426 100.0% 29.5 100.0% -0.233 -0.1944 0.499
Shroud of Silent Mist 524 100.0% 30.34 100.0% -0.25 0.0744 0.122
Starlight Seeks its Form 495 100.0% 34.68 100.0% -0.157 -0.3615 -0.411
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4368 100.0% 32.07 100.0% -0.235 -0.4213 -0.058
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2513 100.0% 36.67 100.0% 0.688 0.7727 0.741
Thunderspeaker 4985 100.0% 33.35 100.0% 0.172 0.1415 0.271
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2827 100.0% 28.7 100.0% -0.502 -0.5456 -0.701
Vital Strength of the Earth 5199 102.6% 27.22 102.27% -0.17 0.6243 -0.38
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 38 47.37% 38.34 86.84% 1.112 1.564 0.947
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 312 62.9% 30.96 63.78% -0.375 0.6558 -0.148
Volcano Looming High 1248 100.0% 30.68 100.0% 0.564 0.5896 -0.041

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.78%
Flame's Fury 95.19%
Flash-Fires 81.87%
Threatening Flames 92.01%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43887 22.6 34.63%
II 79889 31.02 67.98%
III 30860 34.59 87.6%
IV 6360 37.83 99.4%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15075
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25868
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 51302
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6237
Lose: Invader deck ran out 636
Lose: Adversary condition 8006
Win: Sacrifice victory 1717
Lose: Scenario condition 1226
Win: Scenario condition 2666
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47264
Lose: Spirit destroyed 999

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.041 Win Model: -0.202

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.445 Win Model: 0.086
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 98163 72.64% 24.59 59.95%
2 36920 64.48% 29.85 66.53%
3 13204 53.8% 33.15 72.71%
4 12220 43.05% 38.25 77.39%
5 70 52.17% 30.23 70.0%
6 419 34.38% 35.91 81.86%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)