Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 66.67% 28.43 85.71% 0.351 0.8468 0.308
Blitz 0 1174 70.96% 19.17 49.49% -1.108 -0.6644 -1.661
Dahan Insurrection 4 2275 36.12% 58.16 79.47% 0.403 0.4998 1.283
Despicable Theft 2 139 64.75% 30.11 61.87% 0.193 0.6912 -0.087
Elemental Invocation 1 218 71.56% 26.31 57.8% -0.542 0.0037 -1.003
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6155 32.41% 47.51 79.03% 0.846 1.0778 1.333
Powers Long Forgotten 1 597 69.19% 32.41 60.3% 0.452 0.8594 -0.339
Rituals of Terror 3 402 76.13% 31.86 48.76% -0.457 -0.6927 -0.054
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 391 91.24% 27.22 39.9% -0.095 0.1311 -0.258
Second Wave 0 4627 63.42% 23.89 61.25% -0.159 0.533 0.131
The Great River 3 331 78.85% 28.66 56.8% -0.122 1.4599 -0.453
Varied Terrains 2 32 81.25% 33.38 65.63% 0.533 1.3194 -0.272
Ward the Shores 2 457 79.1% 26.1 32.82% -0.13 0.7513 -1.145

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9058 26.62 49.24% -2.157 -0.1864 -0.641
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6943 28.71 53.02% -1.546 0.2321 -0.406
All Things Weaken 3655 26.04 46.68% -1.982 0.0664 -0.766
Back Against the Wall 6605 27.2 49.04% -2.028 -0.0893 -0.627
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8347 22.17 41.91% -2.237 -0.1087 -0.954
Downward Spiral 17774 22.4 54.6% -1.972 -0.0109 -0.692
Erosion of Will 8869 25.23 46.33% -2.245 -0.163 -0.836
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1139 33.95 85.34% -0.143 0.3585 -0.024
Memory Fades to Dust 17627 21.86 50.48% -2.266 -0.1249 -0.874
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3572 25.88 49.83% -2.235 -0.2547 -0.83
Promising Farmlands 8617 23.09 43.31% -2.286 -0.2644 -1.106
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 625 34.52 89.44% 0.296 0.7923 0.611
Thriving Communities 3294 23.45 42.32% -2.15 -0.0908 -1.12
Tipping Point 4075 24.81 47.95% 0.0 0.0 -0.716
Unnatural Proliferation 3784 23.78 37.58% -2.389 -0.4324 -0.956
Untended Land Crumbles 3481 24.74 45.45% -2.433 -0.3999 -0.881

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 41716 64.4% 27.33 64.84% -0.302 0.4338 -0.24
B 51110 61.93% 28.58 67.82% -0.193 0.5046 -0.161
C 44398 63.72% 28.21 66.6% -0.178 0.2921 0.014
D 44477 59.9% 28.95 69.85% 0.187 0.8964 0.055
E 11953 65.92% 29.71 64.13% -0.092 0.4523 -0.013
F 18833 60.62% 30.89 69.26% -0.123 0.5383 0.369
G 18772 62.29% 30.34 68.15% 0.177 0.8082 0.177
H 16297 64.48% 29.14 65.5% -0.226 0.4383 -0.08
East 8062 56.2% 40.3 62.64% 0.076 0.7376 0.668
Northeast 5398 53.18% 42.77 64.62% 0.054 0.7144 0.072
Northwest 4871 52.29% 43.22 65.28% -0.587 0.0237 -0.018
Southeast 1255 52.76% 37.71 66.69% -0.708 -0.177 0.314
Southwest 1120 53.45% 36.74 66.79% -0.698 0.2707 -0.1
West 7796 57.73% 39.2 59.81% 0.123 0.9285 -0.49

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5016 0.0% 15.41 58.55% -2.573 -0.3444 -0.958
Not Using Events or Tokens 21735 68.8% 20.76 64.95% -0.141 0.0856 -0.385
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4124 33.89% 37.15 85.09% 0.849 -0.1314 -0.332
Start of Game Growth 5455 37.84% 36.46 82.57% 0.918 0.4608 0.408
Unlimited Undo 15900 59.71% 30.33 73.14% 0.466 -0.085 0.666
Using Tokens but Not Events 15540 57.19% 26.66 73.51% -0.646 -0.4904 0.012

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.73%
Flame's Fury 95.21%
Flash-Fires 81.81%
Threatening Flames 92.01%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 45285 22.65 34.39%
II 82217 31.08 67.97%
III 31765 34.66 87.61%
IV 6511 37.91 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15446
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26640
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 52794
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6384
Lose: Invader deck ran out 661
Lose: Adversary condition 8360
Win: Sacrifice victory 1760
Lose: Scenario condition 1260
Win: Scenario condition 2731
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48714
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1028

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.504 Win Model: 0.031
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 101228 72.66% 24.58 59.83%
2 37870 64.52% 29.85 66.46%
3 13636 53.83% 33.19 72.7%
4 12445 43.01% 38.25 77.33%
5 91 53.33% 32.19 71.43%
6 508 33.27% 35.7 81.69%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)