Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Heart of the Wildfire

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
161599	66.81%	27.57	63.9%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	57315	53.76%	18.54	0.000	78.92%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1088	60.37%	26.25	2.22	76.38%	0.679	1.2167
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	780	60.77%	31.07	3.552	77.56%	0.277	0.8734
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	1185	75.36%	33.12	1.904	61.52%	-0.922	0.159
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	1094	78.42%	33.66	3.461	55.03%	-0.886	0.4894
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	1267	86.06%	37.06	7.029	47.59%	-0.77	0.9352
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	473	88.37%	34.08	8.048	34.04%	-0.703	0.8567
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	2925	89.91%	35.75	6.234	30.43%	-1.757	0.4015
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	4909	57.87%	21.78	-1.097	75.94%	-0.233	0.0841
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	3620	64.5%	25.18	0.201	72.98%	-0.025	-0.286

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	18	66.67%	29.83	83.33%	0.404	0.4553	0.314
Blitz	0	1146	71.0%	19.22	49.56%	-0.041	0.201	-1.84
Dahan Insurrection	4	2207	36.6%	58.06	79.2%	0.909	1.1994	1.272
Despicable Theft	2	131	65.65%	30.32	61.07%	-0.497	-0.2132	-0.087
Elemental Invocation	1	205	72.2%	25.67	57.56%	-0.924	-0.2342	-1.158
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	5948	32.04%	47.54	79.4%	0.877	1.0227	1.358
Powers Long Forgotten	1	590	68.99%	32.37	60.17%	0.062	0.4474	-0.331
Rituals of Terror	3	390	76.17%	31.75	48.72%	-0.664	-0.9788	-0.031
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	379	91.76%	27.12	39.05%	0.012	0.5149	-0.309
Second Wave	0	4494	63.55%	23.82	60.99%	-0.679	-0.2253	-0.133
The Great River	3	313	79.23%	28.5	55.91%	-0.083	1.4078	-0.455
Varied Terrains	2	25	80.0%	33.12	60.0%	-0.294	0.243	-0.281
Ward the Shores	2	451	79.5%	25.87	32.37%	-2.439	-1.218	-1.275

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
1	Single Board	93485	72.29%	24.42	60.78%	-0.053	0.3222	0.248
1	Thematic	4969	78.48%	27.82	45.24%	0.388	0.8726	-0.677
2	Archipelago	46	52.17%	36.2	84.78%	0.626	0.9718	1.071
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	25468	64.32%	29.86	67.29%	-0.485	-0.1566	0.471
2	Coastline	2601	65.2%	29.34	71.59%	-0.116	-0.1246	0.596
2	Fragment	666	68.67%	24.3	57.81%	-0.061	-0.0548	0.223
2	Heart	324	70.29%	23.72	59.88%	-0.727	-0.3512	-0.124
2	Opposite Shores	4870	63.48%	29.59	67.13%	-0.136	0.2167	-0.457
2	Thematic	2313	64.82%	33.77	56.81%	0.063	0.5295	-0.509
2	Top to Top	618	63.7%	27.97	66.02%	-0.033	0.2261	0.395

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	8868	26.63	49.27%	-2.045	-0.1988	-0.638
Aid From Lesser Spirits	6802	28.67	52.84%	-1.932	-0.3106	-0.412
All Things Weaken	3440	25.99	47.09%	-2.222	-0.2501	-0.76
Back Against the Wall	6474	27.17	49.03%	-1.746	0.1485	-0.632
Disintegrating Ecosystem	8195	22.17	41.82%	-2.308	-0.3203	-0.942
Downward Spiral	17419	22.4	54.77%	-2.081	-0.1516	-0.683
Erosion of Will	8691	25.24	46.35%	-2.226	-0.1743	-0.823
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1075	34.03	85.3%	0.05	0.6526	-0.046
Memory Fades to Dust	17255	21.88	50.66%	-2.105	-0.1052	-0.879
Power Corrodes the Spirit	3386	26.04	50.53%	-1.704	0.1932	-0.779
Promising Farmlands	8445	23.07	43.28%	-2.456	-0.3469	-1.114
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	594	34.83	89.39%	0.18	0.6507	0.637
Thriving Communities	3120	23.47	42.56%	-2.405	-0.4182	-1.067
Tipping Point	4075	24.81	47.95%	0.311	0.7898	-0.711
Unnatural Proliferation	3566	23.8	37.97%	-2.844	-0.935	-0.929
Untended Land Crumbles	3276	24.88	46.34%	-2.113	-0.0913	-0.84

Results using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	40816	64.41%	27.33	64.88%	-0.227	0.5525	-0.202
B	50094	61.91%	28.6	67.91%	-0.088	0.5983	-0.144
C	43429	63.74%	28.21	66.63%	-0.121	0.4537	0.042
D	43621	59.88%	28.95	69.87%	0.143	0.9393	0.078
E	11327	66.22%	29.64	64.08%	0.142	0.7462	-0.02
F	18142	60.56%	30.97	69.53%	-0.186	0.5151	0.416
G	18113	62.12%	30.39	68.38%	-0.052	0.6738	0.2
H	15687	64.34%	29.19	65.78%	-0.232	0.4858	-0.01
Northeast	5292	53.28%	42.67	64.47%	-0.267	0.436	0.094
Northwest	4775	52.51%	43.1	65.13%	-0.43	0.5642	0.004
Southeast	1190	53.04%	37.71	66.81%	-0.144	0.5165	0.285
Southwest	1053	53.63%	36.81	67.62%	0.206	1.2162	0.031
East	7903	56.35%	40.23	62.51%	-0.114	0.4782	0.712
West	7639	57.9%	39.15	59.75%	-0.813	0.2163	-0.511

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	4908	0.0%	15.38	58.6%	-2.213	-0.177	-1.011
Not Using Events or Tokens	21368	68.72%	20.75	64.97%	-0.273	-0.059	-0.396
Skip Initial Invader Actions	4062	33.9%	37.06	85.01%	0.11	-0.0661	-0.555
Start of Game Growth	5353	37.78%	36.41	82.46%	0.43	-0.2136	0.42
Unlimited Undo	15595	59.68%	30.34	73.13%	0.552	-0.1394	0.678
Using Tokens but Not Events	14862	56.24%	26.86	75.11%	-0.258	-0.2605	0.237

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	14087	100.0%	38.89	100.0%	0.98	0.8708	0.686
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	4246	100.0%	27.85	100.0%	0.333	0.383	-0.35
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	2791	100.0%	31.87	100.0%	0.176	0.0054	-0.106
Downpour Drenches the World	161	100.0%	35.22	100.0%	-0.191	0.1877	-0.082
Eyes Watch From the Trees	2979	100.0%	33.67	100.0%	0.494	0.0674	-0.143
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	2711	100.0%	32.49	100.0%	-0.148	-0.6938	-0.356
Finder of Paths Unseen	112	100.0%	35.18	100.0%	0.097	0.4531	-0.058
Fractured Days Split the Sky	734	100.0%	38.01	100.0%	0.551	0.5935	0.736
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	476	100.0%	31.99	100.0%	0.86	0.8154	-0.532
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	8493	100.0%	33.87	100.0%	0.567	-0.0118	0.1

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	5661	4.107	29.845	69.53%
Animated Wrackroot	8317	4.41	31.764	71.08%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	313	3.968	32.997	74.12%
Birds Cry Warning	657	5.265	34.709	67.12%
Blood Draws Predators	1801	4.598	30.778	67.02%
Call of the Dahan Ways	2033	2.845	27.387	69.95%
Call To Bloodshed	3884	3.404	28.499	71.34%
Call to Ferocity	2641	4.652	32.624	69.1%
Call to Guard	1885	4.975	32.261	66.47%
Call To Isolation	3196	4.474	33.034	72.43%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	1109	3.264	27.988	71.42%
Angry Bears	341	4.167	29.226	65.69%
Bargains of Power and Protection	143	4.643	28.65	56.64%
Blazing Renewal	3725	4.358	28.611	64.11%
Bloodwrack Plague	659	4.636	29.211	58.73%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	322	3.755	26.208	59.94%
Cleansing Floods	893	2.764	23.649	62.6%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	821	4.491	31.769	68.21%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	737	3.773	26.11	63.36%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	220	5.018	27.136	55.0%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke	93.78%
Flame's Fury	95.19%
Flash-Fires	81.87%
Threatening Flames	92.01%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	44043	22.61	34.62%
II	80184	31.03	67.99%
III	30987	34.6	87.61%
IV	6385	37.84	99.4%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	8035
Lose: Blight pool ran out	47432
Lose: Invader deck ran out	638
Lose: Scenario condition	1226
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1005
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	15126
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	51509
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	25980
Win: Sacrifice victory	1720
Win: Scenario condition	2667
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	6261

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.96 Win Model: -0.211

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	1600	31.13%	24.02	85.56%	90.38%
-2	744	22.73%	25.24	89.52%	88.38%
-1	1067	39.35%	21.45	80.41%	86.02%
0	50982	54.73%	17.77	78.74%	83.29%
1	12648	57.93%	20.98	75.59%	80.14%
2	8924	61.63%	25.02	75.75%	76.56%
3	8159	69.4%	26.67	67.77%	72.56%
4	9789	68.73%	30.04	65.29%	68.16%
5	8394	69.53%	34.15	64.62%	63.41%
6	11969	77.64%	32.32	53.58%	58.39%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.466 Win Model: 0.154

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	98562	72.62%	24.6	59.97%
2	37045	64.5%	29.85	66.52%
3	13254	53.79%	33.16	72.7%
4	12241	43.01%	38.26	77.41%
5	71	52.86%	30.59	70.42%
6	426	34.52%	35.73	81.92%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.