Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 51.72% 23.14 72.41% -0.962 -1.0278 0.235
Blitz 0 1212 70.38% 19.0 49.26% -0.56 -0.3845 -1.631
Dahan Insurrection 4 2467 34.74% 56.79 77.79% 0.307 0.1359 1.231
Despicable Theft 2 155 63.23% 28.73 59.35% -0.823 -0.1528 -0.111
Elemental Invocation 1 234 70.51% 25.99 57.26% -0.402 0.2802 -0.967
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6459 32.64% 47.44 78.7% 1.541 0.9191 1.387
Powers Long Forgotten 1 619 67.97% 31.88 59.94% -0.323 0.1375 -0.45
Rituals of Terror 3 414 75.61% 31.48 48.31% -0.851 -0.9097 -0.031
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 412 90.46% 26.53 38.83% -1.189 -0.2436 -0.315
Second Wave 0 4818 63.04% 23.71 60.92% -0.406 -0.3387 0.093
The Great River 3 366 77.05% 27.86 54.92% -0.771 0.5804 -0.403
Varied Terrains 2 53 73.58% 30.87 58.49% -0.353 0.1999 -0.29
Ward the Shores 2 468 78.51% 25.78 32.69% -0.86 0.3499 -1.11

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 99775 72.16% 24.23 60.19% 0.664 0.9128 0.237
1 Thematic 5183 77.85% 27.76 45.36% 0.089 0.746 -0.692
2 Archipelago 56 55.36% 33.0 78.57% 0.399 0.8839 1.181
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27005 64.07% 29.63 66.77% 0.845 1.0303 0.492
2 Coastline 2791 64.72% 28.85 70.83% 0.489 0.5497 0.618
2 Fragment 699 68.17% 24.01 57.22% -0.065 -0.1548 0.44
2 Heart 364 71.35% 24.32 59.34% 0.991 0.7675 0.384
2 Opposite Shores 5236 62.62% 29.24 66.73% 0.389 0.5645 -0.361
2 Thematic 2424 64.62% 33.48 56.02% -0.232 0.3777 -0.438
2 Top to Top 674 63.6% 28.16 65.73% 0.829 0.9098 0.425
3 Archipelago 24 41.67% 33.13 87.5% 0.212 -0.7405 0.02
3 Coastline 123 65.04% 33.2 68.29% 0.411 0.0433 0.033
3 Other 417 58.6% 28.0 67.39% 0.844 0.7274 -0.12
3 Round (Default) 13124 53.98% 32.89 72.03% 0.635 0.6358 0.427
3 Sunrise 66 58.46% 33.42 74.24% 0.0 0.2778 0.066
3 Thematic 694 53.9% 36.04 59.65% 0.346 0.303 -0.566
4 Archipelago 33 50.0% 29.76 60.61% -0.233 -0.2117 0.44
4 Coastline 50 42.0% 28.7 82.0% -0.856 -0.6611 0.0
4 Leaf 69 54.41% 28.81 69.57% 0.339 0.058 -1.064
4 Other 440 42.53% 38.76 80.0% 0.512 -0.3883 0.457
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.3473 0.0
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 45.45% 0.0 0.0269 -0.283
4 Thematic 3102 36.65% 52.01 74.47% -0.534 -0.5124 -0.571
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9190 44.89% 33.18 77.01% 0.264 0.0779 0.175
5 Archipelago 12 58.33% 31.42 75.0% 0.246 -0.9292 -0.128
5 Coastline 5 20.0% 26.4 100.0% 0.515 0.398 0.465
5 Other 194 53.16% 34.38 78.87% 0.959 0.4919 0.889
5 Thematic 32 56.25% 41.53 78.13% 0.2 -0.2713 -0.309
6 Archipelago 14 14.29% 35.64 71.43% -0.76 -1.1643 -0.814
6 Coastline 5 80.0% 28.6 80.0% -0.358 -1.065 0.0
6 Other 60 32.76% 26.93 78.33% -0.515 -0.9991 -1.81
6 Star 60 43.33% 34.82 70.0% 0.638 1.0344 0.419
6 Thematic 225 31.53% 34.43 64.0% -1.93 -1.4814 -1.142
6 Two Centers (Default) 307 30.69% 29.76 79.48% -0.741 -0.5914 0.279
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.048 -1.5935 0.041
7 Other 6 40.0% 34.67 66.67% 0.458 -0.413 0.571

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9308 26.59 49.18% -0.108 0.1892 -0.455
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7138 28.76 53.08% 0.057 0.1589 -0.217
All Things Weaken 3886 25.89 46.35% -0.41 0.0867 -0.569
Attenuated Essence 69 24.0 40.58% -0.167 0.1627 -0.773
Back Against the Wall 6782 27.21 49.13% 0.105 0.3347 -0.437
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 19.79 33.33% -0.679 -0.1517 -0.384
Burn Brightest Before the End 37 22.65 40.54% -0.341 0.025 -0.574
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8560 22.04 41.72% -0.732 -0.1488 -0.799
Downward Spiral 18265 22.33 54.56% -0.033 0.3488 -0.514
Erosion of Will 9112 25.15 46.24% -0.36 0.1326 -0.637
Intensifying Exploitation 61 18.57 29.51% -0.761 -0.2911 -0.676
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1216 33.47 84.79% 1.146 0.6757 0.062
Memory Fades to Dust 18154 21.79 50.5% -0.139 0.3718 -0.679
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3782 25.71 49.5% -0.419 -0.0752 -0.683
Promising Farmlands 8854 22.96 43.17% -0.609 0.0284 -0.954
Shattered Fragments of Power 45 25.18 48.89% -0.208 0.0633 -0.011
Slow Dissolution of Will 59 17.05 22.03% -0.896 -0.2997 -1.967
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 675 34.2 88.74% 1.113 0.4258 0.648
The Border of Life and Death 16 18.44 50.0% 0.332 0.2802 -0.607
Thriving Communities 3498 23.37 42.2% -0.418 0.1307 -0.936
Thriving Crops 19 14.89 47.37% -0.105 0.1081 -0.88
Tipping Point 4075 24.81 47.95% 0.0 -0.1286 -0.539
Unnatural Proliferation 4004 23.66 37.36% -0.758 -0.405 -0.772
Untended Land Crumbles 3683 24.59 45.18% -0.315 0.0868 -0.759

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 43274 64.06% 27.12 64.38% -0.801 0.0558 -0.212
B 52840 61.7% 28.38 67.42% -0.473 0.3069 -0.066
C 46087 63.47% 27.98 66.07% -0.738 -0.0825 0.059
D 46025 59.79% 28.75 69.4% -0.383 0.4248 0.127
E 12892 65.43% 29.28 63.4% -0.462 0.173 0.054
F 20109 60.27% 30.45 68.2% -0.201 0.5234 0.365
G 19859 61.93% 30.03 67.61% -0.248 0.5037 0.22
H 17199 63.99% 28.8 65.06% -0.468 0.1977 -0.044
East 8414 55.34% 39.87 61.79% -0.482 0.1488 0.68
Northeast 5656 52.1% 42.24 63.67% -0.334 0.5385 0.236
Northwest 5119 51.14% 42.53 64.11% -0.752 -0.1237 0.167
Southeast 1378 50.73% 36.62 64.3% -0.444 0.2332 0.395
Southwest 1244 51.65% 35.47 63.83% -0.613 0.5647 0.128
West 8143 56.84% 38.74 58.98% -0.257 0.6971 -0.32

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5242 0.0% 15.17 57.36% -1.511 -0.5798 -0.788
Not Using Events or Tokens 22708 68.26% 20.57 64.4% -0.187 0.1241 -0.414
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4251 33.84% 36.95 84.45% 0.262 -0.2627 -0.553
Start of Game Growth 5626 37.74% 36.23 81.96% 0.664 0.31 0.648
Unlimited Undo 16385 59.63% 30.11 72.58% 0.028 -0.0053 0.663
Using Tokens but Not Events 16164 57.09% 26.38 72.65% -0.179 -0.2427 0.018

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 14963 100.0% 38.59 100.0% 0.227 0.0808 0.713
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4437 100.0% 27.46 100.0% -0.873 -0.7795 -0.134
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2984 100.0% 31.52 100.0% 0.438 0.2576 -0.017
Downpour Drenches the World 442 100.0% 28.82 100.0% 0.126 0.3212 -0.482
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 167 100.0% 26.14 100.0% 0.2 -0.4819 0.057
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3237 100.0% 33.14 100.0% 0.514 -0.0702 -0.063
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2897 100.0% 32.22 100.0% -0.292 -0.7417 -0.204
Finder of Paths Unseen 269 100.0% 30.81 100.0% -0.306 0.3993 0.971
Fractured Days Split the Sky 813 100.0% 36.84 100.0% -0.332 0.3767 0.375
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 628 100.0% 31.73 100.0% 0.542 0.4472 -0.231
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8878 100.0% 33.63 100.0% -0.104 -0.5719 0.23
Lightning's Swift Strike 5363 107.82% 31.06 104.51% 0.613 0.8215 0.057
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 126 61.29% 30.93 62.7% 0.277 -0.4341 0.323
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 307 53.77% 36.71 73.29% -0.171 -0.4977 0.373
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 474 50.75% 36.3 76.16% 0.713 0.5237 0.164
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1819 100.0% 32.72 100.0% -0.167 -0.3373 -0.374
Many Minds Move as One 980 100.0% 32.97 100.0% 0.392 0.1467 0.52
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 9292 100.0% 37.41 100.0% -0.072 -0.0955 0.678
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2756 100.0% 32.38 100.0% -0.006 -0.136 0.135
River Surges in Sunlight 7571 104.3% 37.69 103.91% -0.14 -0.1493 0.621
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 637 58.01% 30.05 61.38% 0.098 0.3416 -0.274
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 131 49.21% 31.5 61.83% 0.387 0.2381 -0.496
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7411 100.0% 31.87 100.0% 0.439 0.2275 0.216
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3447 107.52% 28.26 106.41% -1.034 -0.5926 -0.447
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 45 39.53% 25.47 55.56% 0.127 0.1183 -0.183
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 50 50.0% 33.3 64.0% 0.03 0.0542 -0.264
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 305 59.87% 29.83 65.9% -0.056 -0.0985 -1.015
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 240 62.34% 28.36 67.08% -0.554 -0.4829 0.095
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4753 100.38% 35.2 100.4% 0.317 0.1735 0.503
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 34 47.06% 25.44 44.12% -0.281 -0.6067 -0.697
Shifting Memory of Ages 566 100.0% 27.23 100.0% -0.54 -0.1693 0.179
Shroud of Silent Mist 658 100.0% 28.54 100.0% -0.131 0.1975 0.145
Starlight Seeks its Form 687 100.0% 33.21 100.0% -0.104 -0.3743 0.088
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4820 100.0% 31.6 100.0% -0.132 -0.6172 0.003
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2729 100.0% 36.22 100.0% -0.1 -0.0539 0.865
Thunderspeaker 5203 100.35% 33.19 100.31% 0.561 0.5289 0.3
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 27 33.33% 20.15 40.74% -0.267 -0.2781 -1.716
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 3135 100.0% 28.08 100.0% -0.371 -0.3254 -0.636
Vital Strength of the Earth 5372 103.72% 27.02 103.13% -0.702 -0.1436 -0.27
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 117 42.98% 35.26 71.79% 0.332 0.5674 0.199
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 358 61.97% 30.33 62.29% 0.166 1.0722 -0.261
Volcano Looming High 1511 100.0% 30.32 100.0% 0.459 0.4809 0.04

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.73%
Flame's Fury 95.27%
Flash-Fires 81.86%
Threatening Flames 92.04%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 47926 21.2 33.43%
II 85037 31.05 67.91%
III 32832 34.73 87.66%
IV 6717 38.01 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15892
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27560
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 54525
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6589
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1394
Lose: Invader deck ran out 687
Lose: Adversary condition 8633
Win: Sacrifice victory 1820
Lose: Scenario condition 1312
Win: Scenario condition 2845
Lose: Blight pool ran out 50197
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1058

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.146 Win Model: -0.157

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.194 Win Model: 0.222
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 105100 72.45% 24.41 59.43%
2 39389 64.16% 29.59 66.01%
3 14290 53.77% 32.98 72.03%
4 12936 42.84% 37.87 76.5%
5 123 49.59% 31.5 73.98%
6 674 31.93% 31.67 73.15%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-26 03:47:51 (Pacific Time)