Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1283 69.98% 18.99 -4.02 49.57% -0.942 -0.3657
Dahan Insurrection 4 2410 40.38% 56.87 11.817 76.39% 0.261 0.6616
Despicable Theft 2 6 50.0% 36.33 3.266 66.67% -0.453 -0.0237
Elemental Invocation 1 61 68.85% 26.05 -0.623 70.49% -0.041 0.3399
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6818 31.93% 47.1 7.857 79.91% 0.694 1.0597
Powers Long Forgotten 1 826 65.9% 33.39 1.197 61.26% -0.31 0.1318
Rituals of Terror 3 463 74.45% 31.63 2.333 47.3% -0.882 -0.254
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 504 92.02% 26.79 0.079 37.9% -1.035 -0.3852
Second Wave 0 5154 64.83% 24.25 -1.704 60.52% -0.853 -0.4365
The Great River 3 166 77.11% 26.92 0.182 48.19% -1.194 0.2769
Ward the Shores 2 557 76.56% 26.07 -1.201 34.47% -1.473 -0.4368

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 69637 72.26% 24.26 -1.185 60.62% -0.872 -0.5129
1 Thematic 3915 78.6% 28.18 -0.142 43.55% -1.261 -0.7573
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 19262 64.28% 29.78 0.662 67.43% -0.267 -0.0708
2 Coastline 1982 63.33% 29.24 0.351 72.7% -0.042 0.1007
2 Fragment 495 66.52% 24.47 -1.649 60.81% -0.782 -0.3597
2 Heart 239 67.83% 22.92 -2.077 62.76% -0.535 -0.2422
2 Opposite Shores 3511 63.21% 30.1 0.334 67.9% -0.322 -0.0973
2 Thematic 1845 66.65% 33.42 0.843 54.96% -0.84 -0.7949
2 Top to Top 464 60.53% 27.6 -0.327 68.1% -0.433 -0.2985
3 Coastline 72 62.5% 33.14 1.192 62.5% 0.309 0.2757
3 Other 303 58.64% 28.56 -0.978 67.66% -0.189 0.2268
3 Round (Default) 9289 52.8% 33.31 0.965 73.43% 0.231 0.2703
3 Sunrise 54 54.72% 33.17 1.029 70.37% 0.136 -0.0876
3 Thematic 468 51.92% 36.22 1.292 61.32% -0.584 -0.9412
4 Coastline 31 38.71% 32.0 0.338 93.55% 1.468 1.626
4 Leaf 49 52.08% 32.57 -0.807 73.47% 0.152 0.1795
4 Other 354 42.21% 40.44 2.171 79.94% 0.555 0.6681
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 3.923 100.0% 0.414 -0.3746
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 -2.338 45.45% -0.271 -0.1468
4 Thematic 2374 38.0% 51.45 4.927 74.05% 0.16 -0.9268
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7058 44.87% 33.68 0.295 77.47% 0.512 0.4952
5 Other 67 53.85% 36.88 2.496 89.55% 1.821 1.6022
5 Thematic 14 50.0% 53.79 7.502 92.86% 1.51 -1.3173

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6859 26.73 -1.467 49.29% -2.297 -0.2269
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5287 28.65 -0.67 52.83% -2.192 -0.274
All Things Weaken 1871 25.58 -1.981 44.84% -2.463 -0.3081
Back Against the Wall 4963 27.07 -1.59 48.82% -2.429 -0.3327
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6390 22.28 -3.713 42.11% -2.651 -0.4271
Downward Spiral 13875 22.35 -2.691 55.33% -2.238 -0.2209
Erosion of Will 6670 25.15 -2.175 45.89% -2.466 -0.2565
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 572 33.61 1.899 83.92% -0.725 -0.0206
Memory Fades to Dust 13738 21.75 -3.017 50.63% -2.458 -0.2424
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1846 25.68 -1.944 48.92% -2.318 -0.2978
Promising Farmlands 6565 23.15 -3.29 43.11% -2.609 -0.3964
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 330 35.38 2.414 86.97% -0.406 0.0296
Thriving Communities 1675 23.41 -3.143 41.49% -2.618 -0.5208
Tipping Point 4071 24.8 -2.495 47.9% -2.381 -0.1632
Unnatural Proliferation 1899 23.78 -2.918 36.7% -2.872 -0.7941
Untended Land Crumbles 1822 25.3 -2.151 46.38% -2.414 -0.3154

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 19250 71.08% 24.48 -1.254 59.5% -0.208 -1.2976
B 26234 65.65% 27.04 -0.03 65.27% 0.082 -1.1036
C 20977 69.04% 25.98 -0.528 63.19% -0.037 -1.4521
D 22399 62.16% 27.89 0.518 69.11% 0.192 -0.9854
E 3495 71.71% 28.24 0.06 59.0% 0.01 -1.2668
F 7294 63.17% 29.67 0.928 68.4% 0.245 -0.9976
G 7571 65.84% 29.09 0.505 66.0% 0.175 -1.0558
H 5941 71.65% 26.43 -0.691 59.89% -0.168 -1.4079
East 2283 47.6% 46.62 4.764 68.81% 0.179 -0.7719
Northeast 1684 70.64% 32.93 1.06 48.93% -0.222 -1.1117
Northwest 1858 66.78% 33.84 0.62 54.52% -0.143 -1.1075
Southeast 287 68.64% 31.56 0.549 58.89% 0.233 -0.7689
Southwest 251 62.55% 26.83 -2.114 56.18% -0.086 -0.6939
West 1975 69.08% 33.2 0.618 46.94% -0.195 -0.8814

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3688 0.0% 14.9 -5.461 57.62% -2.923 -0.8788
Not Using Events or Tokens 16358 69.7% 20.14 -2.617 64.38% -0.253 -0.0339
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3201 33.07% 37.55 3.306 85.13% 1.026 0.3223
Start of Game Growth 4025 37.29% 36.88 2.805 81.96% 0.105 -0.3495
Unlimited Undo 11456 59.55% 30.42 1.265 73.12% 0.4 -0.0121
Using Tokens but Not Events 11759 56.0% 27.05 -0.318 75.7% 0.178 0.1305

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 10884 49.7% 38.72 3.428 78.3% 0.625 0.7707
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3603 63.93% 28.01 -1.175 65.47% -0.341 -0.1038
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2047 52.88% 32.76 0.558 72.4% 0.041 -0.0443
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2215 51.79% 34.06 1.386 74.9% 0.193 -0.1719
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2035 48.83% 32.0 0.496 75.09% 0.118 -0.127
Fractured Days Split the Sky 398 44.92% 41.03 3.338 77.89% 0.21 0.5554
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6954 50.53% 33.61 0.631 73.48% 0.044 -0.2552
Lightning's Swift Strike 4767 55.28% 31.68 0.389 71.76% 0.028 0.2967
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 600 61.54% 33.12 0.397 66.33% -0.192 -0.5114
Many Minds Move as One 512 58.74% 34.62 1.551 74.61% 0.383 -0.1369
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7077 51.24% 37.7 2.249 74.99% 0.262 0.0671
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1929 54.69% 33.67 0.872 71.44% 0.065 0.1136
River Surges in Sunlight 6151 50.16% 37.27 1.913 73.34% -0.089 0.073
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5791 53.54% 31.98 0.082 70.33% -0.165 -0.015
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3241 61.35% 29.19 -0.617 67.85% -0.181 0.2684
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3832 48.76% 35.38 1.038 72.31% -0.142 -0.2094
Shroud of Silent Mist 19 52.63% 27.68 -1.079 63.16% -0.539 -0.5828
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2987 59.43% 31.96 -0.003 64.85% -0.166 -0.1854
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1931 48.41% 37.8 2.384 77.16% 0.332 0.5478
Thunderspeaker 4122 52.68% 33.5 0.945 69.97% -0.059 -0.0014
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1918 70.16% 29.34 -1.303 61.21% -0.294 -0.2745
Vital Strength of the Earth 4600 52.19% 27.38 -1.479 68.13% -0.458 0.413
Volcano Looming High 345 60.58% 32.07 -0.08 66.96% 0.009 -0.0533

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.99%
Flame's Fury 94.94%
Flash-Fires 81.7%
Threatening Flames 92.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33167 22.34 34.78%
II 60092 30.75 67.8%
III 23386 34.26 87.53%
IV 4854 37.47 99.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7391
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12653
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 25034
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3041
Lose: Invader deck ran out 484
Lose: Adversary condition 6013
Win: Sacrifice victory 1250
Lose: Scenario condition 982
Win: Scenario condition 2032
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35659
Lose: Spirit destroyed 797

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.069 Win Model: -0.181

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.674 Win Model: -0.26
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 73557 72.6% 24.47 59.71%
2 27837 64.23% 29.84 66.92%
3 10194 53.07% 33.32 72.63%
4 9911 43.08% 38.18 76.8%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)