Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1354 69.63% 19.05 -3.999 49.63% -0.958 -0.3851
Dahan Insurrection 4 2576 40.51% 56.79 11.795 76.48% 0.272 0.6717
Despicable Theft 2 54 72.22% 29.81 1.205 59.26% -0.702 -0.4195
Elemental Invocation 1 109 69.72% 25.8 -1.031 66.06% -0.107 0.3326
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7241 31.66% 47.16 7.876 80.03% 0.681 1.0471
Powers Long Forgotten 1 853 66.04% 33.31 1.182 61.2% -0.309 0.1326
Rituals of Terror 3 478 74.42% 31.64 2.372 47.7% -0.881 -0.2369
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 525 91.76% 26.86 0.157 38.48% -1.018 -0.3761
Second Wave 0 5549 64.74% 24.23 -1.713 60.89% -0.838 -0.41
The Great River 3 210 78.1% 27.92 0.717 52.86% -0.998 0.4617
Ward the Shores 2 574 76.51% 26.07 -1.189 35.02% -1.459 -0.4218

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 75823 72.12% 24.32 -1.148 60.87% -0.926 -0.5932
1 Thematic 4277 79.13% 27.87 -0.277 43.37% -1.432 -0.9337
2 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 -0.381 100.0% 0.018 -0.0428
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 20745 64.36% 29.75 0.661 67.5% -0.286 -0.0854
2 Coastline 2158 63.9% 29.54 0.483 72.66% -0.049 0.1053
2 Fragment 534 67.46% 24.25 -1.784 59.55% -0.852 -0.4557
2 Heart 268 69.88% 23.25 -1.958 60.45% -0.551 -0.2286
2 Opposite Shores 3895 63.64% 29.87 0.22 67.32% -0.37 -0.1411
2 Thematic 1968 66.29% 33.53 0.907 55.54% -0.951 -0.8895
2 Top to Top 508 61.32% 27.83 -0.231 67.52% -0.444 -0.3122
3 Coastline 81 65.43% 33.63 1.316 66.67% 0.429 0.3909
3 Other 325 59.18% 28.78 -0.873 67.69% -0.185 0.2353
3 Round (Default) 9957 53.03% 33.22 0.945 73.33% 0.244 0.2999
3 Sunrise 57 55.36% 32.89 0.984 71.93% 0.253 0.0587
3 Thematic 496 53.23% 36.04 1.284 62.1% -0.618 -0.947
4 Coastline 34 38.24% 32.71 0.404 94.12% 1.506 1.6314
4 Leaf 51 54.0% 32.0 -1.008 72.55% 0.163 0.2093
4 Other 383 42.15% 40.36 2.252 80.42% 0.669 0.7809
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 3.96 100.0% 0.439 -0.3433
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 -2.31 45.45% -0.239 -0.0843
4 Thematic 2532 37.92% 51.5 4.96 74.29% 0.114 -0.91
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7524 44.93% 33.57 0.27 77.47% 0.571 0.6056
5 Other 69 52.24% 36.83 2.493 89.86% 1.877 1.6222
5 Thematic 17 41.18% 50.12 6.588 94.12% 1.515 -1.428

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7374 26.61 -1.501 49.09% -2.32 -0.2463
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5698 28.65 -0.641 52.9% -2.202 -0.2827
All Things Weaken 2259 25.73 -1.879 45.51% -2.455 -0.2967
Back Against the Wall 5368 27.12 -1.543 48.99% -2.433 -0.3392
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6833 22.21 -3.73 42.16% -2.667 -0.4429
Downward Spiral 14775 22.41 -2.664 55.32% -2.251 -0.2295
Erosion of Will 7187 25.18 -2.145 46.33% -2.466 -0.2571
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 721 33.49 1.961 85.85% -0.586 0.1071
Memory Fades to Dust 14586 21.77 -3.006 50.77% -2.466 -0.2472
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2266 25.66 -1.929 49.43% -2.315 -0.2943
Promising Farmlands 7061 23.08 -3.288 43.27% -2.617 -0.403
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 405 35.23 2.432 87.16% -0.408 0.0036
Thriving Communities 2022 23.36 -3.133 41.94% -2.629 -0.5361
Tipping Point 4071 24.8 -2.486 47.9% -2.395 -0.1692
Unnatural Proliferation 2317 23.79 -2.876 37.46% -2.873 -0.7832
Untended Land Crumbles 2169 25.28 -2.149 46.75% -2.433 -0.3271

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 20539 71.28% 24.43 -1.269 59.51% -0.256 -1.3681
B 28216 65.46% 27.0 -0.032 65.54% 0.042 -1.1659
C 22419 69.16% 25.99 -0.513 63.21% -0.082 -1.521
D 23831 62.16% 27.86 0.497 69.04% 0.136 -1.0656
E 4239 72.05% 27.95 -0.044 58.88% -0.056 -1.368
F 8308 63.61% 29.75 0.967 68.36% 0.207 -1.0588
G 8597 65.76% 29.03 0.503 66.23% 0.138 -1.1188
H 6672 71.75% 26.44 -0.676 60.21% -0.206 -1.4717
East 2414 47.84% 46.76 4.826 68.89% 0.245 -0.7356
Northeast 1811 70.71% 32.79 1.073 49.36% -0.144 -1.0749
Northwest 1965 66.96% 33.81 0.659 54.76% -0.069 -1.0683
Southeast 344 65.41% 31.21 0.538 61.92% 0.317 -0.7084
Southwest 298 62.75% 26.84 -2.121 56.71% -0.054 -0.6735
West 2066 69.13% 33.23 0.617 47.24% -0.157 -0.8822

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4009 0.0% 14.89 -5.455 57.75% -2.94 -0.8861
Not Using Events or Tokens 17568 69.48% 20.19 -2.586 64.56% -0.245 -0.0271
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3448 32.93% 37.5 3.309 85.27% 1.024 0.3301
Start of Game Growth 4392 36.78% 36.86 2.799 82.29% 0.114 -0.3487
Unlimited Undo 12736 59.19% 30.36 1.267 73.45% 0.398 -0.0227
Using Tokens but Not Events 12525 55.99% 27.06 -0.311 75.74% 0.179 0.1266

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 11583 49.7% 38.61 3.433 78.5% 0.641 0.7737
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3776 63.89% 27.99 -1.148 65.68% -0.335 -0.1061
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2216 53.21% 32.52 0.524 72.52% 0.048 -0.0383
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2427 52.39% 33.75 1.294 74.99% 0.188 -0.1853
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2210 49.11% 32.03 0.504 75.07% 0.107 -0.1529
Fractured Days Split the Sky 507 45.42% 40.42 3.012 77.32% 0.121 0.4886
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7370 50.77% 33.59 0.646 73.46% 0.039 -0.2649
Lightning's Swift Strike 5009 55.45% 31.6 0.37 71.71% 0.019 0.2779
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 848 59.22% 33.2 0.322 67.57% -0.205 -0.4786
Many Minds Move as One 585 59.45% 34.56 1.513 74.02% 0.337 -0.1776
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7448 51.45% 37.61 2.237 74.93% 0.253 0.0571
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2083 55.48% 33.29 0.788 71.53% 0.065 0.1105
River Surges in Sunlight 6498 50.29% 37.26 1.911 73.41% -0.093 0.0599
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6137 53.55% 32.08 0.142 70.23% -0.177 -0.0324
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3373 61.49% 29.14 -0.619 67.89% -0.185 0.2555
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4038 48.3% 35.44 1.058 72.68% -0.14 -0.2114
Shroud of Silent Mist 202 63.5% 31.33 -0.173 64.36% -0.203 -0.2227
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3382 59.84% 32.06 0.057 65.05% -0.156 -0.1758
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2084 48.47% 37.44 2.272 76.73% 0.29 0.4925
Thunderspeaker 4340 52.6% 33.46 0.952 70.14% -0.065 -0.0137
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2172 70.63% 29.17 -1.34 60.36% -0.333 -0.3249
Vital Strength of the Earth 4810 52.38% 27.23 -1.512 68.19% -0.462 0.4086
Volcano Looming High 568 60.0% 31.36 -0.272 66.37% -0.114 -0.1378

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.97%
Flame's Fury 95.04%
Flash-Fires 81.83%
Threatening Flames 92.16%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 35971 22.34 34.93%
II 65250 30.81 67.94%
III 25273 34.31 87.56%
IV 5225 37.5 99.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8409
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14241
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 28448
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3403
Lose: Invader deck ran out 516
Lose: Adversary condition 6496
Win: Sacrifice victory 1382
Lose: Scenario condition 1041
Win: Scenario condition 2168
Lose: Blight pool ran out 38604
Lose: Spirit destroyed 848

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.067 Win Model: -0.181

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.667 Win Model: -0.297
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 80106 72.51% 24.51 59.93%
2 30123 64.41% 29.82 66.88%
3 10927 53.35% 33.25 72.64%
4 10563 43.09% 38.11 76.87%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)