Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 66.67% 28.43 85.71% 0.351 0.8468 0.308
Blitz 0 1174 70.96% 19.17 49.49% -1.108 -0.6644 -1.661
Dahan Insurrection 4 2275 36.12% 58.16 79.47% 0.403 0.4998 1.283
Despicable Theft 2 139 64.75% 30.11 61.87% 0.193 0.6912 -0.087
Elemental Invocation 1 218 71.56% 26.31 57.8% -0.542 0.0037 -1.003
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6155 32.41% 47.51 79.03% 0.846 1.0778 1.333
Powers Long Forgotten 1 597 69.19% 32.41 60.3% 0.452 0.8594 -0.339
Rituals of Terror 3 402 76.13% 31.86 48.76% -0.457 -0.6927 -0.054
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 391 91.24% 27.22 39.9% -0.095 0.1311 -0.258
Second Wave 0 4627 63.42% 23.89 61.25% -0.159 0.533 0.131
The Great River 3 331 78.85% 28.66 56.8% -0.122 1.4599 -0.453
Varied Terrains 2 32 81.25% 33.38 65.63% 0.533 1.3194 -0.272
Ward the Shores 2 457 79.1% 26.1 32.82% -0.13 0.7513 -1.145

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 96044 72.35% 24.4 60.61% 0.015 0.678 0.208
1 Thematic 5069 78.23% 27.85 45.51% -0.112 0.9448 -0.718
2 Archipelago 51 52.94% 34.35 80.39% -0.5 -0.0289 1.095
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 26012 64.4% 29.84 67.16% -0.095 0.4235 0.458
2 Coastline 2670 65.34% 29.34 71.61% 0.294 0.4946 0.588
2 Fragment 679 68.48% 24.33 57.73% 0.066 0.3637 0.331
2 Heart 344 71.3% 24.28 59.3% 0.376 0.8362 0.27
2 Opposite Shores 4984 63.19% 29.63 67.44% 0.559 1.0976 -0.425
2 Thematic 2347 64.86% 33.78 56.67% -0.477 0.3054 -0.514
2 Top to Top 640 63.22% 28.26 66.41% 0.429 0.5573 0.383
3 Archipelago 22 45.45% 32.68 86.36% 0.769 0.5506 -0.041
3 Coastline 112 65.18% 34.02 70.54% 0.431 -0.0766 0.009
3 Other 398 58.91% 28.33 67.84% -0.172 -0.8364 -0.282
3 Round (Default) 12520 54.02% 33.08 72.69% 0.424 0.7282 0.391
3 Sunrise 66 58.46% 33.42 74.24% 0.288 0.7475 0.024
3 Thematic 670 54.64% 36.1 59.55% 0.305 0.5126 -0.537
4 Archipelago 31 53.57% 30.03 61.29% -0.181 -0.2181 0.412
4 Coastline 44 40.91% 31.57 90.91% 0.308 0.2711 0.0
4 Leaf 63 58.06% 30.1 69.84% -0.726 -0.8279 -1.015
4 Other 430 42.49% 39.17 80.7% 0.385 -0.3289 0.354
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 45.45% 0.0 0.0 -0.283
4 Thematic 2956 37.15% 52.62 75.78% -0.89 -0.7858 -0.386
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8871 44.89% 33.51 77.65% 0.062 0.1397 0.12
5 Archipelago 11 63.64% 32.0 72.73% 0.0 -0.0975 -0.138
5 Coastline 4 25.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.258 -0.3291 0.0
5 Other 161 55.7% 35.58 78.88% 0.135 -0.3816 0.712
5 Thematic 29 58.62% 44.21 79.31% -0.462 -0.7491 -0.246
6 Archipelago 13 15.38% 38.38 76.92% -0.518 -0.6647 -0.869
6 Coastline 2 100.0% 26.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 46 31.82% 24.67 80.43% 0.494 0.5391 -1.566
6 Star 46 45.65% 36.33 65.22% -0.265 0.5052 0.453
6 Thematic 165 37.04% 40.98 76.36% -0.104 0.1373 -0.439
6 Two Centers (Default) 238 29.83% 33.39 88.24% -0.657 -0.4655 0.356
7 Other 4 66.67% 52.0 100.0% 0.186 -0.2976 0.518

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9058 26.62 49.24% -2.157 -0.1864 -0.641
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6943 28.71 53.02% -1.546 0.2321 -0.406
All Things Weaken 3655 26.04 46.68% -1.982 0.0664 -0.766
Back Against the Wall 6605 27.2 49.04% -2.028 -0.0893 -0.627
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8347 22.17 41.91% -2.237 -0.1087 -0.954
Downward Spiral 17774 22.4 54.6% -1.972 -0.0109 -0.692
Erosion of Will 8869 25.23 46.33% -2.245 -0.163 -0.836
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1139 33.95 85.34% -0.143 0.3585 -0.024
Memory Fades to Dust 17627 21.86 50.48% -2.266 -0.1249 -0.874
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3572 25.88 49.83% -2.235 -0.2547 -0.83
Promising Farmlands 8617 23.09 43.31% -2.286 -0.2644 -1.106
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 625 34.52 89.44% 0.296 0.7923 0.611
Thriving Communities 3294 23.45 42.32% -2.15 -0.0908 -1.12
Tipping Point 4075 24.81 47.95% 0.0 0.0 -0.716
Unnatural Proliferation 3784 23.78 37.58% -2.389 -0.4324 -0.956
Untended Land Crumbles 3481 24.74 45.45% -2.433 -0.3999 -0.881

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 41716 64.4% 27.33 64.84% -0.302 0.4338 -0.24
B 51110 61.93% 28.58 67.82% -0.193 0.5046 -0.161
C 44398 63.72% 28.21 66.6% -0.178 0.2921 0.014
D 44477 59.9% 28.95 69.85% 0.187 0.8964 0.055
E 11953 65.92% 29.71 64.13% -0.092 0.4523 -0.013
F 18833 60.62% 30.89 69.26% -0.123 0.5383 0.369
G 18772 62.29% 30.34 68.15% 0.177 0.8082 0.177
H 16297 64.48% 29.14 65.5% -0.226 0.4383 -0.08
East 8062 56.2% 40.3 62.64% 0.076 0.7376 0.668
Northeast 5398 53.18% 42.77 64.62% 0.054 0.7144 0.072
Northwest 4871 52.29% 43.22 65.28% -0.587 0.0237 -0.018
Southeast 1255 52.76% 37.71 66.69% -0.708 -0.177 0.314
Southwest 1120 53.45% 36.74 66.79% -0.698 0.2707 -0.1
West 7796 57.73% 39.2 59.81% 0.123 0.9285 -0.49

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5016 0.0% 15.41 58.55% -2.573 -0.3444 -0.958
Not Using Events or Tokens 21735 68.8% 20.76 64.95% -0.141 0.0856 -0.385
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4124 33.89% 37.15 85.09% 0.849 -0.1314 -0.332
Start of Game Growth 5455 37.84% 36.46 82.57% 0.918 0.4608 0.408
Unlimited Undo 15900 59.71% 30.33 73.14% 0.466 -0.085 0.666
Using Tokens but Not Events 15540 57.19% 26.66 73.51% -0.646 -0.4904 0.012

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 14400 100.0% 38.93 100.0% 1.247 1.1714 0.727
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4301 100.0% 27.84 100.0% -0.095 -0.0167 -0.297
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2868 100.0% 31.8 100.0% -0.05 -0.2742 -0.091
Downpour Drenches the World 255 100.0% 33.27 100.0% -0.818 -0.5529 -0.586
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3059 100.0% 33.54 100.0% -0.091 -0.5942 -0.114
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2780 100.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.292 -0.2945 -0.355
Finder of Paths Unseen 169 100.0% 36.18 100.0% -0.029 0.3268 0.653
Fractured Days Split the Sky 764 100.0% 37.84 100.0% -0.586 -0.5044 0.431
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 525 100.0% 32.36 100.0% 0.673 0.5778 -0.383
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8645 100.0% 33.92 100.0% 0.189 -0.4147 0.155
Lightning's Swift Strike 5225 106.88% 31.19 103.66% -0.859 -0.4944 -0.018
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 65 68.75% 34.57 69.23% 0.098 -0.6505 0.015
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 290 52.6% 37.31 74.48% 0.115 -0.4487 0.226
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 422 51.55% 36.94 77.01% -0.424 -0.9188 0.069
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1618 100.0% 33.71 100.0% 0.323 0.1718 -0.496
Many Minds Move as One 923 100.0% 33.45 100.0% 0.254 -0.3322 0.51
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8871 100.0% 37.7 100.0% -0.103 -0.2723 0.715
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2629 100.0% 32.76 100.0% -0.011 -0.067 0.057
River Surges in Sunlight 7346 103.75% 37.94 103.42% 0.238 0.1634 0.599
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 591 57.86% 30.32 61.76% -0.69 -0.2632 -0.17
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 73 55.56% 32.68 65.75% 0.486 0.1451 -0.665
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7180 100.0% 32.05 100.0% -0.569 -0.7623 0.122
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3365 106.49% 28.56 105.41% 0.071 0.5455 -0.558
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 29 42.86% 26.21 55.17% -0.36 -0.1807 -0.446
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 29 46.43% 38.86 82.76% 0.777 0.8325 -0.249
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 283 61.15% 30.52 66.43% 0.833 0.8105 -1.073
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 222 63.8% 28.98 68.92% -0.118 -0.0024 0.184
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4642 100.0% 35.36 100.0% 0.042 -0.1496 0.351
Shifting Memory of Ages 467 100.0% 29.32 100.0% -0.423 -0.2082 0.295
Shroud of Silent Mist 587 100.0% 29.9 100.0% -0.586 -0.4515 0.122
Starlight Seeks its Form 574 100.0% 34.87 100.0% 0.473 0.3586 -0.107
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4545 100.0% 32.15 100.0% 0.414 0.1748 -0.048
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2592 100.0% 36.8 100.0% 1.187 1.3173 0.795
Thunderspeaker 5063 100.0% 33.34 100.0% 0.185 0.168 0.235
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2954 100.0% 28.59 100.0% -0.442 -0.6576 -0.669
Vital Strength of the Earth 5253 103.02% 27.21 102.63% -0.138 0.76 -0.395
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 67 43.08% 37.13 74.63% -0.309 0.1138 0.814
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 327 62.46% 30.58 63.0% -0.927 0.1878 -0.168
Volcano Looming High 1383 100.0% 30.72 100.0% -0.361 -0.3815 -0.05

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.73%
Flame's Fury 95.21%
Flash-Fires 81.81%
Threatening Flames 92.01%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 45285 22.65 34.39%
II 82217 31.08 67.97%
III 31765 34.66 87.61%
IV 6511 37.91 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15446
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26640
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 52794
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6384
Lose: Invader deck ran out 661
Lose: Adversary condition 8360
Win: Sacrifice victory 1760
Lose: Scenario condition 1260
Win: Scenario condition 2731
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48714
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1028

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.641 Win Model: -0.231

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.504 Win Model: 0.031
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 101228 72.66% 24.58 59.83%
2 37870 64.52% 29.85 66.46%
3 13636 53.83% 33.19 72.7%
4 12445 43.01% 38.25 77.33%
5 91 53.33% 32.19 71.43%
6 508 33.27% 35.7 81.69%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)