Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1228 69.86% 19.0 -4.064 49.27% -0.955 -0.3823
Dahan Insurrection 4 2362 40.69% 56.86 11.827 76.08% 0.255 0.6556
Elemental Invocation 1 45 64.44% 27.51 -0.106 75.56% 0.043 0.5086
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6636 31.97% 47.11 7.862 80.0% 0.704 1.0791
Powers Long Forgotten 1 813 65.72% 33.47 1.195 61.13% -0.321 0.126
Rituals of Terror 3 455 74.67% 31.7 2.342 47.25% -0.869 -0.2472
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 495 92.07% 26.92 0.124 37.78% -1.028 -0.4036
Second Wave 0 5023 64.9% 24.27 -1.698 60.36% -0.856 -0.4373
The Great River 3 144 78.47% 26.81 0.114 46.53% -1.227 0.2583
Ward the Shores 2 544 76.36% 26.12 -1.205 34.56% -1.472 -0.4414

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 67212 72.19% 24.27 -1.189 60.66% -0.848 -0.4932
1 Thematic 3775 78.87% 28.34 -0.121 43.18% -1.317 -0.8195
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18597 64.44% 29.85 0.672 67.4% -0.237 -0.0473
2 Coastline 1931 63.19% 29.32 0.373 72.66% -0.014 0.1212
2 Fragment 490 66.59% 24.51 -1.64 60.82% -0.751 -0.3253
2 Heart 234 68.14% 23.0 -2.062 62.39% -0.512 -0.221
2 Opposite Shores 3403 63.38% 30.05 0.317 67.65% -0.303 -0.0765
2 Thematic 1821 66.76% 33.36 0.81 54.86% -0.899 -0.8552
2 Top to Top 455 60.63% 27.51 -0.36 67.91% -0.412 -0.2953
3 Coastline 69 63.77% 32.84 1.014 60.87% 0.285 0.247
3 Other 292 58.45% 28.69 -0.946 67.12% -0.164 0.2381
3 Round (Default) 9042 52.72% 33.29 0.955 73.35% 0.257 0.2884
3 Sunrise 53 53.85% 33.45 1.151 71.7% 0.194 -0.0591
3 Thematic 463 52.05% 36.33 1.338 61.34% -0.621 -0.9603
4 Coastline 26 38.46% 30.69 -0.024 92.31% 1.24 1.3622
4 Leaf 48 51.06% 32.65 -0.837 72.92% 0.128 0.2076
4 Other 349 42.53% 40.39 2.194 79.94% 0.614 0.6948
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 3.924 100.0% 0.427 -0.3651
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 -2.351 45.45% -0.258 -0.132
4 Thematic 2315 38.32% 51.36 4.907 73.82% 0.112 -0.9661
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6841 44.88% 33.65 0.283 77.53% 0.553 0.5203
5 Other 64 54.84% 37.36 2.709 90.63% 1.937 1.72
5 Thematic 14 50.0% 53.79 7.475 92.86% 1.465 -1.302

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6641 26.79 -1.463 49.22% -2.295 -0.2269
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5132 28.68 -0.674 52.73% -2.192 -0.2754
All Things Weaken 1718 25.57 -2.009 45.11% -2.46 -0.2999
Back Against the Wall 4795 27.17 -1.566 48.99% -2.417 -0.3251
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6203 22.38 -3.69 42.21% -2.644 -0.4221
Downward Spiral 13526 22.33 -2.71 55.25% -2.237 -0.2227
Erosion of Will 6463 25.13 -2.195 45.77% -2.469 -0.2581
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 534 33.6 1.861 84.08% -0.707 0.0048
Memory Fades to Dust 13395 21.74 -3.037 50.52% -2.459 -0.243
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1722 25.78 -1.95 48.43% -2.335 -0.3156
Promising Farmlands 6377 23.17 -3.301 43.19% -2.605 -0.3907
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 312 35.35 2.362 87.82% -0.348 0.0687
Thriving Communities 1526 23.31 -3.227 40.89% -2.648 -0.5408
Tipping Point 4071 24.8 -2.508 47.9% -2.38 -0.1637
Unnatural Proliferation 1738 23.76 -2.96 36.25% -2.891 -0.8111
Untended Land Crumbles 1678 25.52 -2.1 46.6% -2.398 -0.3024

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18637 70.89% 24.53 -1.238 59.69% -0.244 -1.3172
B 25514 65.59% 27.06 -0.039 65.25% 0.034 -1.1299
C 20367 68.97% 26.02 -0.518 63.26% -0.076 -1.4722
D 21754 62.31% 27.88 0.501 69.05% 0.148 -1.0096
E 3262 71.86% 28.3 0.102 59.01% -0.016 -1.273
F 6946 63.29% 29.69 0.918 68.36% 0.208 -1.0178
G 7245 65.86% 29.11 0.503 65.82% 0.13 -1.0829
H 5626 71.66% 26.47 -0.707 59.63% -0.217 -1.4385
East 2246 47.99% 46.49 4.741 68.61% 0.226 -0.7104
Northeast 1649 70.62% 32.98 1.073 48.82% -0.18 -1.049
Northwest 1806 66.65% 33.88 0.589 54.71% -0.101 -1.0459
Southeast 274 68.61% 31.58 0.55 59.12% 0.292 -0.6912
Southwest 236 63.14% 27.14 -1.949 56.78% 0.015 -0.6102
West 1948 69.16% 33.15 0.602 46.66% -0.164 -0.8295

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3574 0.0% 14.97 -5.441 58.0% -2.9 -0.861
Not Using Events or Tokens 15776 70.24% 20.09 -2.648 64.09% -0.261 -0.0411
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3132 33.07% 37.57 3.311 85.12% 1.043 0.3373
Start of Game Growth 3934 37.25% 36.87 2.792 81.88% 0.083 -0.3761
Unlimited Undo 10975 59.52% 30.53 1.275 73.07% 0.396 -0.006
Using Tokens but Not Events 11518 56.15% 27.04 -0.33 75.6% 0.173 0.1267

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 10618 49.85% 38.7 3.418 78.24% 0.606 0.7525
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3537 64.13% 28.06 -1.149 65.51% -0.349 -0.1127
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1990 53.21% 32.83 0.589 72.26% 0.032 -0.0548
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2143 51.87% 34.16 1.422 75.17% 0.191 -0.1784
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1882 50.83% 32.19 0.47 73.91% 0.088 -0.1445
Fractured Days Split the Sky 352 45.27% 40.26 2.958 76.42% 0.007 0.3409
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6797 50.43% 33.66 0.639 73.46% 0.025 -0.2729
Lightning's Swift Strike 4673 55.3% 31.64 0.369 71.69% 0.007 0.2754
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 494 61.99% 33.44 0.6 66.8% -0.116 -0.4766
Many Minds Move as One 477 57.81% 34.31 1.38 74.0% 0.288 -0.2254
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6915 51.45% 37.67 2.241 74.97% 0.246 0.0489
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1856 54.79% 33.69 0.862 71.23% 0.03 0.0774
River Surges in Sunlight 6030 50.12% 37.22 1.893 73.23% -0.116 0.0507
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5664 53.51% 31.9 0.051 70.23% -0.192 -0.0432
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3171 61.24% 29.23 -0.613 67.87% -0.202 0.2471
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3749 48.77% 35.44 1.054 72.26% -0.159 -0.224
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2849 59.04% 32.06 0.028 65.18% -0.176 -0.1952
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1851 48.28% 37.94 2.439 77.42% 0.331 0.5458
Thunderspeaker 4041 52.61% 33.53 0.951 70.03% -0.076 -0.0156
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1830 69.93% 29.33 -1.333 60.87% -0.336 -0.2995
Vital Strength of the Earth 4518 52.26% 27.35 -1.496 67.86% -0.489 0.3758
Volcano Looming High 252 62.3% 31.85 -0.048 66.67% 0.061 -0.0401

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.94%
Flame's Fury 94.94%
Flash-Fires 81.6%
Threatening Flames 92.12%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 32064 22.34 34.79%
II 58103 30.71 67.76%
III 22648 34.23 87.54%
IV 4695 37.48 99.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7015
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12029
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23718
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2883
Lose: Invader deck ran out 469
Lose: Adversary condition 5830
Win: Sacrifice victory 1221
Lose: Scenario condition 954
Win: Scenario condition 1984
Lose: Blight pool ran out 34466
Lose: Spirit destroyed 778

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.074 Win Model: -0.181

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.673 Win Model: -0.245
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 70992 72.55% 24.48 59.73%
2 26969 64.38% 29.89 66.83%
3 9927 53.0% 33.31 72.53%
4 9622 43.17% 38.16 76.78%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)