Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Heart of the Wildfire

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
138570	66.64%	27.54	64.0%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	49071	53.71%	18.55	0.000	78.82%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	849	60.4%	25.75	-0.025	77.03%	-0.165	0.1238
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	585	60.17%	30.83	2.412	78.12%	-0.004	0.4105
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	936	75.21%	32.96	3.33	61.86%	-0.775	0.108
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	864	79.77%	32.99	3.557	54.51%	-1.081	0.1609
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	1009	86.18%	36.59	5.041	47.27%	-1.361	0.1358
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	380	87.63%	33.54	3.4	32.63%	-2.154	-0.2155
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	2127	89.27%	35.41	4.873	30.32%	-2.198	-0.1547
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	4330	57.3%	21.63	-1.737	76.03%	-0.208	-0.1668
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	3108	65.59%	24.92	-0.07	72.39%	-0.179	-0.1969

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	1394	69.93%	19.07	-4.01	49.57%	-0.968	-0.4028
Dahan Insurrection	4	2701	40.41%	56.93	11.809	76.71%	0.283	0.6834
Despicable Theft	2	75	72.0%	29.48	1.079	60.0%	-0.62	-0.3459
Elemental Invocation	1	142	73.24%	26.2	-1.091	59.86%	-0.303	0.1995
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	7502	31.8%	47.11	7.865	80.11%	0.679	1.0436
Powers Long Forgotten	1	876	66.44%	33.24	1.192	61.53%	-0.28	0.1662
Rituals of Terror	3	505	75.0%	31.32	2.248	47.33%	-0.901	-0.2563
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	535	91.73%	26.81	0.131	38.5%	-1.031	-0.3842
Second Wave	0	5718	64.32%	24.22	-1.721	61.02%	-0.842	-0.4123
The Great River	3	235	77.45%	28.26	0.81	52.77%	-1.037	0.4358
Ward the Shores	2	593	76.25%	26.13	-1.156	35.41%	-1.455	-0.4231

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	79850	72.05%	24.34	-1.148	60.97%	-0.596	-0.5093
1	Thematic	4466	78.93%	27.83	-0.312	43.95%	-1.062	-0.7848
2	Archipelago	22	54.55%	35.14	3.079	77.27%	-0.066	-0.0591
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	21829	64.26%	29.82	0.693	67.56%	-0.16	-0.1345
2	Coastline	2268	64.74%	29.59	0.503	72.0%	0.062	0.0374
2	Fragment	555	67.93%	24.06	-1.861	58.74%	-0.747	-0.5248
2	Heart	280	70.74%	23.26	-1.949	59.64%	-0.441	-0.3414
2	Opposite Shores	4164	63.3%	29.63	0.12	67.34%	-0.258	-0.1928
2	Thematic	2056	66.13%	33.52	0.898	55.54%	-0.788	-0.8543
2	Top to Top	531	61.8%	27.88	-0.198	67.23%	-0.293	-0.3619

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	7695	26.61	-1.489	49.12%	-2.33	-0.2608
Aid From Lesser Spirits	5965	28.69	-0.616	53.11%	-2.206	-0.2937
All Things Weaken	2525	25.85	-1.816	46.26%	-2.445	-0.2856
Back Against the Wall	5602	27.09	-1.549	49.11%	-2.444	-0.3574
Disintegrating Ecosystem	7122	22.18	-3.733	42.02%	-2.685	-0.463
Downward Spiral	15414	22.39	-2.669	55.15%	-2.268	-0.2459
Erosion of Will	7519	25.25	-2.114	46.42%	-2.472	-0.2646
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	805	33.88	2.079	85.09%	-0.652	0.0269
Memory Fades to Dust	15242	21.83	-2.98	50.68%	-2.474	-0.2593
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2497	25.94	-1.823	49.9%	-2.313	-0.2923
Promising Farmlands	7362	23.07	-3.285	43.24%	-2.629	-0.4212
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	450	34.92	2.308	87.56%	-0.413	-0.0017
Thriving Communities	2274	23.26	-3.178	42.08%	-2.641	-0.5528
Tipping Point	4074	24.8	-2.475	47.94%	-2.404	-0.1794
Unnatural Proliferation	2581	23.97	-2.794	38.4%	-2.852	-0.7708
Untended Land Crumbles	2419	25.17	-2.204	46.84%	-2.457	-0.3544

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	21430	71.34%	24.41	-1.278	59.54%	-0.235	-0.9232
B	29334	65.35%	27.0	-0.031	65.7%	0.063	-0.7203
C	23492	69.24%	25.96	-0.53	63.08%	-0.066	-1.0788
D	24793	62.17%	27.84	0.489	68.96%	0.152	-0.625
E	4766	71.69%	27.95	-0.033	59.55%	-0.019	-0.9131
East	2530	47.68%	47.25	4.941	69.6%	0.246	-0.3302
F	8955	63.72%	29.83	1.017	68.34%	0.236	-0.605
G	9308	65.86%	28.98	0.484	66.27%	0.159	-0.6727
H	7216	71.53%	26.41	-0.672	60.48%	-0.179	-1.0185
Northeast	1870	70.26%	32.82	1.069	49.89%	-0.165	-0.6896
Northwest	2021	67.02%	33.75	0.643	54.92%	-0.096	-0.6909
Southeast	372	64.78%	31.25	0.529	62.63%	0.288	-0.3412
Southwest	346	63.77%	26.8	-2.151	56.07%	-0.12	-0.3183
West	2137	68.83%	33.28	0.618	47.5%	-0.19	-0.5171

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	4201	0.0%	14.95	-5.464	57.96%	-2.95	-0.8975
Not Using Events or Tokens	18559	69.39%	20.37	-2.516	64.46%	-0.247	-0.0319
Skip Initial Invader Actions	3632	33.84%	37.33	3.253	84.91%	0.97	0.2833
Start of Game Growth	4657	37.31%	36.74	2.794	82.46%	0.173	-0.2958
Unlimited Undo	13416	59.14%	30.4	1.285	73.52%	0.399	-0.0245
Using Tokens but Not Events	13069	56.01%	26.99	-0.334	75.75%	0.178	0.1269

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	12154	49.52%	38.67	3.478	78.62%	0.66	0.7646
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	3880	63.86%	27.93	-1.171	65.67%	-0.328	-0.1307
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	2331	53.36%	32.47	0.514	72.5%	0.054	-0.06
Eyes Watch From the Trees	2565	52.69%	33.85	1.353	75.4%	0.241	-0.1628
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	2323	49.24%	32.19	0.543	75.25%	0.129	-0.1764
Fractured Days Split the Sky	567	46.98%	39.97	2.907	76.72%	0.111	0.4598
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	7649	50.77%	33.68	0.682	73.71%	0.064	-0.2789
Lightning's Swift Strike	5188	55.59%	31.65	0.378	71.67%	0.031	0.2567
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1019	59.01%	33.54	0.523	68.69%	-0.121	-0.4077
Many Minds Move as One	647	58.39%	34.48	1.531	74.65%	0.36	-0.1729

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	4626	4.134	30.1	69.65%
Animated Wrackroot	6840	4.444	32.068	71.26%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	230	3.935	32.3	73.48%
Birds Cry Warning	452	5.332	34.418	65.93%
Blood Draws Predators	1316	4.629	30.859	66.72%
Call of the Dahan Ways	1654	2.778	27.27	70.25%
Call To Bloodshed	3163	3.412	28.558	71.36%
Call to Ferocity	2171	4.69	33.037	69.51%
Call to Guard	1357	5.057	32.957	67.43%
Call To Isolation	2561	4.528	33.076	72.16%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	932	3.328	27.931	71.03%
Angry Bears	266	4.15	28.504	63.91%
Bargains of Power and Protection	108	4.5	28.111	54.63%
Blazing Renewal	3099	4.341	28.807	64.6%
Bloodwrack Plague	558	4.647	29.672	59.68%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	270	3.689	26.237	60.0%
Cleansing Floods	740	2.724	23.554	62.57%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	704	4.47	31.815	68.47%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	606	3.769	26.574	64.69%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	166	5.036	27.072	54.22%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke	93.96%
Flame's Fury	95.07%
Flash-Fires	81.91%
Threatening Flames	92.17%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	37869	22.37	34.96%
II	68660	30.88	68.08%
III	26550	34.39	87.56%
IV	5491	37.55	99.34%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	6821
Lose: Blight pool ran out	40558
Lose: Invader deck ran out	543
Lose: Scenario condition	1077
Lose: Spirit destroyed	887
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	9077
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	30724
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	15312
Win: Sacrifice victory	1464
Win: Scenario condition	2279
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	3665

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.068 Win Model: -0.182

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	1403	31.46%	24.02	85.1%	86.79%
-2	679	22.34%	25.23	89.1%	84.56%
-1	886	39.2%	20.93	78.89%	82.04%
0	43691	54.67%	17.81	78.73%	79.2%
1	11246	57.92%	21.0	75.46%	76.05%
2	7817	61.55%	25.07	75.64%	72.58%
3	6818	69.58%	26.67	67.63%	68.82%
4	8381	68.98%	29.98	64.99%	64.79%
5	7363	69.43%	34.17	64.54%	60.55%
6	10095	77.98%	32.33	53.5%	56.13%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.668 Win Model: -0.104

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	84338	72.43%	24.52	60.06%
2	31751	64.35%	29.85	66.89%
3	11440	53.76%	33.17	72.4%
4	11041	43.14%	38.16	77.08%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.