Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 90.91% 27.45 72.73% -0.21 -0.4121 0.368
Blitz 0 1134 71.03% 19.24 49.38% -0.683 -0.4254 -1.833
Dahan Insurrection 4 2177 36.83% 58.11 79.01% 0.155 0.5683 1.297
Despicable Theft 2 123 67.48% 29.9 60.16% -1.223 -0.7766 -0.271
Elemental Invocation 1 190 70.53% 26.11 58.95% -0.079 0.4072 -1.106
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5791 31.52% 47.49 79.68% 0.486 0.7919 1.381
Powers Long Forgotten 1 581 68.86% 32.45 59.9% 0.154 0.3363 -0.322
Rituals of Terror 3 383 76.25% 31.51 48.56% -0.342 -0.2203 -0.118
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 375 91.67% 27.15 38.93% -0.307 0.1078 -0.299
Second Wave 0 4420 63.6% 23.8 60.9% -1.078 -0.5126 -0.222
The Great River 3 305 78.69% 28.64 56.07% 0.621 2.0186 -0.327
Varied Terrains 2 14 71.43% 32.86 64.29% -0.254 0.2717 -0.279
Ward the Shores 2 409 78.09% 26.15 35.45% -1.551 -0.3891 -1.27

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 91942 72.29% 24.39 60.78% -0.261 0.7555 0.264
1 Thematic 4931 78.56% 27.78 45.08% -0.463 0.7094 -0.692
2 Archipelago 45 51.11% 35.38 84.44% 0.296 1.2792 0.752
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25116 64.29% 29.85 67.35% -0.339 0.4128 0.493
2 Coastline 2573 64.96% 29.34 71.59% -0.506 0.096 0.564
2 Fragment 658 68.75% 24.3 57.9% -0.709 -0.2617 0.249
2 Heart 314 69.97% 23.64 60.83% -0.032 0.5064 -0.13
2 Opposite Shores 4799 63.56% 29.59 67.14% -0.458 0.5347 -0.425
2 Thematic 2288 64.82% 33.69 56.82% -0.106 0.5923 -0.502
2 Top to Top 609 63.48% 27.97 66.01% 0.098 0.6084 0.417
3 Archipelago 16 43.75% 30.88 81.25% 0.272 0.4451 -0.061
3 Coastline 108 66.67% 33.82 69.44% 0.447 -0.3355 -0.276
3 Other 392 58.79% 28.34 67.86% -0.038 -0.074 -0.318
3 Round (Default) 11937 53.82% 33.06 72.95% -0.075 0.52 0.429
3 Sunrise 65 59.38% 33.08 73.85% 0.662 0.6992 0.0
3 Thematic 642 55.94% 35.64 57.94% 0.025 -0.0127 -0.696
4 Archipelago 22 66.67% 32.5 54.55% 0.0 -0.7111 0.433
4 Coastline 43 39.53% 31.35 90.7% -0.296 -0.1791 0.0
4 Leaf 61 56.67% 30.89 72.13% 0.0 0.5626 -0.982
4 Other 422 42.48% 39.35 80.57% 1.26 1.0064 0.429
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 42.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 11 81.82% 28.55 45.45% 0.0 0.0 -0.261
4 Thematic 2894 37.36% 52.55 75.85% -0.748 -0.2187 -0.295
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8667 44.98% 33.5 77.62% -0.037 -0.0644 0.173
5 Archipelago 11 63.64% 32.0 72.73% 0.105 -0.4737 -0.098
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 137 55.22% 34.9 78.1% 0.187 0.3554 0.258
5 Thematic 26 53.85% 44.38 80.77% 0.0 -0.2767 -0.307
6 Archipelago 9 22.22% 27.89 77.78% 0.032 -0.2241 0.0
6 Coastline 2 100.0% 26.5 100.0% 0.043 -0.5458 0.0
6 Other 29 40.74% 24.45 72.41% -0.254 0.5551 -1.498
6 Star 38 42.11% 36.71 63.16% -1.103 -0.3199 0.626
6 Thematic 133 36.15% 39.72 77.44% -0.17 -0.4483 -0.437
6 Two Centers (Default) 175 30.86% 33.48 89.14% -0.028 -0.1217 0.528
7 Other 3 100.0% 60.67 100.0% 0.611 -0.5408 0.534

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8747 26.61 49.25% -2.204 -0.3015 -0.614
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6714 28.67 52.86% -2.134 -0.4041 -0.376
All Things Weaken 3315 25.97 47.09% -2.25 -0.2642 -0.738
Back Against the Wall 6383 27.14 48.99% -1.882 -0.065 -0.631
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8092 22.15 41.83% -2.444 -0.3939 -0.924
Downward Spiral 17205 22.39 54.82% -1.985 0.0077 -0.641
Erosion of Will 8574 25.24 46.37% -2.004 0.0791 -0.789
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1044 34.11 85.25% -0.212 0.2287 -0.024
Memory Fades to Dust 17059 21.85 50.69% -1.897 0.1868 -0.847
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3275 25.93 50.2% -2.089 -0.1508 -0.793
Promising Farmlands 8342 23.08 43.29% -2.384 -0.3385 -1.084
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 578 34.9 89.45% 0.678 1.1028 0.675
Thriving Communities 3029 23.46 42.82% -2.289 -0.3056 -1.058
Tipping Point 4075 24.81 47.95% 0.243 0.1251 -0.689
Unnatural Proliferation 3466 23.86 38.23% -2.552 -0.5874 -0.88
Untended Land Crumbles 3170 24.84 46.28% -2.16 -0.1668 -0.82

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 40267 64.4% 27.32 64.92% -0.236 0.5617 -0.254
B 49528 61.93% 28.58 67.88% -0.084 0.6599 -0.196
C 42903 63.73% 28.19 66.6% -0.149 0.4199 -0.013
D 43085 59.9% 28.92 69.85% 0.049 0.8442 0.024
E 10992 66.27% 29.6 63.88% 0.104 0.7514 -0.101
F 17753 60.59% 30.97 69.59% -0.201 0.5227 0.376
G 17687 61.98% 30.42 68.6% -0.088 0.6434 0.146
H 15319 64.28% 29.22 66.03% 0.072 0.7843 -0.06
East 7824 56.48% 40.19 62.35% -0.487 0.2816 0.665
Northeast 5238 53.39% 42.65 64.34% -0.58 0.2802 0.042
Northwest 4721 52.54% 43.13 65.16% 0.178 1.2542 -0.041
Southeast 1170 53.43% 37.61 66.75% -0.138 0.568 0.235
Southwest 1033 53.7% 36.74 67.67% 0.29 1.4155 -0.107
West 7559 57.97% 39.13 59.68% -0.724 0.2295 -0.582

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4840 0.0% 15.39 58.64% -1.647 0.4823 -0.998
Not Using Events or Tokens 21152 68.71% 20.73 64.95% -0.54 -0.3649 -0.41
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4021 33.86% 37.09 85.0% 0.044 -0.0985 -0.597
Start of Game Growth 5288 37.71% 36.45 82.49% 0.601 -0.1596 0.43
Unlimited Undo 15395 59.74% 30.34 73.13% 0.625 0.021 0.694
Using Tokens but Not Events 14544 56.17% 26.92 75.36% -0.133 -0.2896 0.276

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 13920 100.0% 38.87 100.0% 0.701 0.5861 0.67
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4211 100.0% 27.84 100.0% -0.522 -0.4257 -0.397
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2749 100.0% 31.89 100.0% 0.62 0.4588 -0.104
Downpour Drenches the World 124 100.0% 36.2 100.0% 0.098 0.3503 -0.081
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2955 100.0% 33.63 100.0% 0.285 -0.1525 -0.141
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2674 100.0% 32.46 100.0% -0.019 -0.5071 -0.325
Finder of Paths Unseen 81 100.0% 33.57 100.0% 0.006 0.3697 0.314
Fractured Days Split the Sky 719 100.0% 38.09 100.0% 0.334 0.39 0.745
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 442 100.0% 31.86 100.0% 0.072 0.0402 -0.502
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8420 100.0% 33.82 100.0% 0.463 0.0065 0.099
Lightning's Swift Strike 5127 106.22% 31.18 103.08% 0.469 0.743 0.018
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 27 65.38% 31.85 70.37% 0.007 -0.7701 0.355
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 275 51.82% 37.19 74.55% 0.417 -0.2258 0.258
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 372 51.76% 36.92 78.49% 0.188 -0.0783 0.01
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1463 100.0% 33.39 100.0% -0.835 -1.1015 -0.453
Many Minds Move as One 864 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.164 -0.7672 0.46
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8584 100.0% 37.68 100.0% 0.176 -0.0088 0.733
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2538 100.0% 32.83 100.0% -0.083 -0.0621 0.016
River Surges in Sunlight 7185 103.14% 37.89 102.51% -0.139 -0.1734 0.615
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 491 56.99% 30.78 66.19% -0.33 0.1014 -0.138
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 33 39.39% 29.94 57.58% -1.332 -1.6326 -1.257
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6995 100.0% 32.02 100.0% 0.448 0.3955 0.181
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3323 105.98% 28.6 105.06% -0.336 0.0741 -0.536
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 13 38.46% 29.77 53.85% -1.328 -1.3209 -0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 14 28.57% 38.0 78.57% -0.28 -0.6268 -0.446
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 271 60.9% 30.36 65.68% 0.017 0.0367 -1.218
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 212 63.51% 29.22 68.87% -0.199 -0.0162 0.193
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4543 100.0% 35.37 100.0% 0.253 -0.0334 0.376
Shifting Memory of Ages 412 100.0% 29.37 100.0% 0.083 0.1579 0.586
Shroud of Silent Mist 505 100.0% 30.54 100.0% 0.562 0.798 0.125
Starlight Seeks its Form 461 100.0% 34.55 100.0% 0.07 -0.0691 -0.498
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4297 100.0% 32.02 100.0% -0.249 -0.4311 -0.058
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2485 100.0% 36.68 100.0% 0.134 0.3191 0.75
Thunderspeaker 4953 100.0% 33.33 100.0% 0.388 0.4523 0.283
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2796 100.0% 28.79 100.0% -0.134 -0.225 -0.68
Vital Strength of the Earth 5180 102.47% 27.23 102.16% -0.556 0.253 -0.369
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 27 48.15% 37.59 88.89% 0.955 1.3416 0.972
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 304 62.25% 30.82 64.14% 0.084 1.2587 -0.191
Volcano Looming High 1218 100.0% 30.63 100.0% -0.324 -0.328 -0.066

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Asphyxiating Smoke 93.8%
Flame's Fury 95.17%
Flash-Fires 81.92%
Threatening Flames 92.02%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43365 22.56 34.65%
II 78970 30.98 68.0%
III 30504 34.53 87.62%
IV 6294 37.77 99.4%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14903
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25574
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 50724
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6171
Lose: Invader deck ran out 621
Lose: Adversary condition 7908
Win: Sacrifice victory 1697
Lose: Scenario condition 1211
Win: Scenario condition 2638
Lose: Blight pool ran out 46699
Lose: Spirit destroyed 987

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.147 Win Model: -0.198

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.461 Win Model: 0.083
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 96966 72.63% 24.57 59.96%
2 36508 64.43% 29.84 66.63%
3 13055 53.87% 33.11 72.63%
4 12155 43.12% 38.26 77.33%
5 65 53.13% 29.23 67.69%
6 384 34.13% 35.49 81.51%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)