Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 27 3.7% 25.74 -5.258 66.67% -0.368 -0.4
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 29 6.9% 32.34 -1.377 72.41% 0.055 -0.4011
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 22 13.64% 35.82 -0.688 68.18% -0.202 -0.3
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 31 9.68% 33.32 -1.052 58.06% -0.687 -0.8226
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 36 36.11% 34.94 0.043 47.22% -1.143 -0.687
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 19 36.84% 44.58 4.779 47.37% -0.804 0.0203
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 92 42.39% 27.47 -4.269 27.17% -2.301 -0.5931
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 996 8.84% 33.01 -5.112 75.4% -0.595 -0.2044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 628 11.4% 32.72 -3.018 62.42% -0.59 -0.2398
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1007 13.31% 42.44 4.204 70.71% -0.164 0.3334
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 967 18.35% 43.64 0.608 64.74% -0.696 0.2157
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 647 26.43% 49.18 7.742 60.43% -0.367 1.2797
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 237 29.11% 40.41 -5.121 36.71% -0.449 1.3602
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3139 28.64% 47.49 -0.803 43.13% -2.037 -0.0269
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2505 8.65% 29.36 -6.364 81.56% -0.451 -0.2544
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2577 10.67% 35.55 -0.371 78.15% -0.047 -0.0279
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3760 10.06% 45.61 2.548 84.47% 0.161 0.2725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4311 13.04% 50.04 2.743 81.0% -0.142 0.1349
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2915 13.29% 53.45 7.652 85.83% 0.163 0.5056
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2132 15.27% 59.96 8.539 86.49% 0.029 0.4308
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5055 35.41% 53.67 2.434 66.82% -0.997 0.3019
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2742 10.43% 31.03 -3.861 82.02% -0.065 0.2362
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1939 11.32% 35.92 -2.367 73.85% -0.505 -0.0923
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2773 14.44% 37.81 -2.578 71.15% -0.67 -0.0774
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2694 20.0% 40.42 1.236 58.2% -0.804 0.3392
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8109 8.21% 51.72 4.655 77.8% -0.467 0.5724
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1567 18.15% 51.0 -0.586 57.37% -1.732 -0.1033
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20082 21.69% 53.96 5.41 54.33% -0.967 0.93
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1594 12.08% 33.35 -2.976 79.74% -0.37 0.0794
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1255 22.98% 33.24 -2.193 70.92% -0.415 0.3858
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1728 18.39% 39.9 0.212 64.99% -0.182 1.0485
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1703 21.63% 48.89 0.059 69.64% -0.979 0.3505
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1344 18.48% 52.1 1.582 66.96% -0.688 0.6435
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2771 33.53% 62.48 9.712 81.38% -0.219 0.7621
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10884 27.55% 61.1 8.553 67.1% -0.67 0.8256
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 252 11.9% 28.4 -1.446 68.65% 0.035 0.3021
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 312 13.14% 29.68 -4.253 56.73% -0.75 -0.4256
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 386 18.65% 32.74 -1.686 56.22% -0.715 -0.3731
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 580 18.83% 40.72 1.975 56.03% -0.508 -0.2892
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 584 23.12% 47.4 4.081 70.38% -0.364 0.3522
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1855 29.16% 49.44 3.38 63.83% -0.622 -0.0043
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2791 37.52% 44.28 -0.88 40.24% -1.795 -0.7249
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2248 8.6% 28.59 -5.529 77.76% -0.504 -0.2569
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2073 10.02% 37.45 -1.608 74.92% -0.601 -0.4557
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2244 18.53% 33.19 -0.865 68.09% 0.015 0.3021
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2285 23.84% 41.3 3.936 72.39% 0.41 0.7524
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1314 24.22% 42.3 2.433 67.05% -0.432 0.3492
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 888 27.66% 46.77 0.248 68.69% -0.859 0.3557
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9103 23.34% 53.17 6.4 72.4% -0.206 0.876
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 795 10.71% 29.96 -2.255 78.74% -0.071 0.197
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 618 21.1% 34.12 -4.88 70.39% -0.799 0.0294
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 820 24.15% 40.21 -4.022 76.46% -0.851 -0.5414
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 973 34.94% 45.8 -0.474 72.66% -0.606 0.2444
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 790 26.71% 51.4 1.841 72.15% -0.985 0.1753
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 635 31.65% 55.19 4.883 65.04% -0.747 1.1226
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2930 44.92% 48.59 -0.463 41.98% -2.037 -0.4309

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 79033 21.37 42.85 71.38% 0.168 0.4476 -0.349
1 Thematic 12944 22.61 44.41 63.16% -0.181 0.3945 -0.657
2 Archipelago 150 26.67 36.5 47.33% -0.408 0.2465 -1.05
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10496 8.18 40.16 78.17% -0.337 -0.255 -0.119
2 Coastline 2190 22.17 38.52 64.25% 0.56 0.3253 -1.241
2 Fragment 344 17.06 37.9 72.09% 0.772 0.6232 -0.071
2 Heart 201 18.41 38.1 77.61% 0.351 -0.0326 -0.804
2 Opposite Shores 6633 14.48 41.77 77.36% 0.753 0.7479 -0.48
2 Thematic 3170 12.05 49.97 65.52% 0.144 0.5775 0.254
2 Top to Top 267 12.4 40.45 74.16% 0.85 0.6316 0.088
3 Archipelago 70 30.0 58.6 80.0% 0.854 0.1514 0.29
3 Coastline 42 7.32 40.67 73.81% -0.241 -1.2894 1.011
3 Other 425 7.76 26.88 55.29% 0.48 -0.2719 -0.029
3 Round (Default) 10671 17.84 44.87 71.91% -0.344 -0.4483 -0.224
3 Sunrise 55 12.73 60.22 85.45% 0.154 -0.2309 0.934
3 Thematic 516 17.86 43.36 72.09% -0.097 -0.3097 0.515
4 Archipelago 67 20.9 43.93 61.19% -0.266 -0.6339 -0.983
4 Coastline 7 0.0 57.0 71.43% -0.302 -0.3544 0.094
4 Leaf 35 17.14 40.86 60.0% 0.531 0.9911 -0.884
4 Other 270 14.81 54.09 92.59% 0.226 -0.4761 1.048
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2980 8.87 62.88 82.68% -0.306 -0.292 0.667
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8921 9.22 50.2 79.68% 0.181 -0.03 0.243
5 Archipelago 12 16.67 53.67 75.0% -0.239 0.7909 0.447
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.221
5 Other 236 18.64 43.69 71.19% 0.892 0.4465 0.457
5 Thematic 98 6.12 69.33 83.67% -0.578 -0.5933 1.922
6 Archipelago 373 2.95 66.5 77.21% -0.351 -1.2881 -1.015
6 Coastline 2 0.0 15.5 50.0%
6 Other 230 0.87 47.5 67.39% -1.193 -1.5447 -0.908
6 Star 146 4.79 34.16 61.64% -0.555 0.0719 -0.789
6 Thematic 1113 2.79 46.65 57.5% -0.322 -0.4127 -0.009
6 Two Centers (Default) 675 2.67 37.22 58.81% -0.963 -0.7124 -1.754
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 49.33 33.33% 0.759
7 Other 6 0.0 25.33 33.33% -0.633 -1.6086 -0.326

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1789 42.3 58.41% 0.025 0.0332 -0.429
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1503 44.31 59.21% 0.815 0.6976 -0.426
All Things Weaken 1343 40.84 54.65% 0.011 0.1726 -0.654
Attenuated Essence 272 40.87 57.72% 0.161 0.1078 -0.446
Back Against the Wall 1469 42.76 56.3% 0.199 0.1944 -0.485
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 203 38.8 51.72% 0.126 0.231 -0.67
Burn Brightest Before the End 175 39.2 45.71% 0.195 0.1925 -0.785
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1650 37.77 52.06% -0.152 0.0372 -0.867
Downward Spiral 3324 38.96 59.06% 0.517 0.5725 -0.427
Erosion of Will 1631 40.05 53.83% -0.214 -0.0838 -0.695
Intensifying Exploitation 236 39.41 54.66% 0.531 0.6464 -0.536
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 743 44.96 69.04% 0.647 0.0583 -0.172
Memory Fades to Dust 3201 38.67 56.7% -0.359 -0.1544 -0.526
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1291 42.67 58.87% -0.073 0.0424 -0.437
Promising Farmlands 1582 36.97 47.09% -0.766 -0.5764 -0.96
Shattered Fragments of Power 188 40.6 48.4% -0.183 -0.1878 -0.762
Slow Dissolution of Will 233 36.64 46.35% 0.109 0.4046 -0.819
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 509 47.3 76.23% 0.05 -0.6518 0.098
The Border of Life and Death 81 37.43 60.49% 0.299 -0.1223 -0.555
Thriving Communities 1265 37.82 46.48% -0.546 -0.4311 -0.892
Thriving Crops 126 35.23 48.41% -0.18 -0.4835 -0.576
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -0.975
Unnatural Proliferation 1318 40.3 51.75% -0.532 -0.4564 -0.706
Untended Land Crumbles 1310 41.45 57.1% -0.678 -0.5047 -0.536

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33561 15.93% 44.58 74.24% -1.021 -0.0613 -0.631
B 34158 15.67% 44.64 75.07% -1.137 -0.2659 -0.438
C 34106 13.76% 43.91 75.72% -1.169 -0.4781 -0.521
D 24931 15.53% 41.69 73.07% -1.311 -0.4333 -0.668
E 15785 16.06% 44.55 71.41% -1.074 -0.3851 -0.543
F 20551 17.46% 45.05 72.49% -0.883 -0.0843 -0.631
G 18741 18.48% 43.64 70.53% -1.075 -0.3083 -0.809
H 18873 15.58% 45.06 72.59% -1.011 -0.2532 -0.566
East 14478 15.48% 50.01 67.66% -1.236 -0.5017 -0.5
Northeast 8918 14.95% 51.16 67.13% -0.96 -0.0953 -0.625
Northwest 6989 14.96% 51.74 68.81% -1.06 -0.3549 -0.507
Southeast 3908 8.48% 48.97 68.45% -0.557 0.3727 -0.586
Southwest 3619 11.02% 46.11 66.1% -1.182 0.11 -1.244
West 12449 15.58% 49.65 68.41% -1.235 -0.2845 -0.59

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1155 0.0% 33.11 81.13% -0.057 0.5801 -0.418
Not Using Events or Tokens 14108 16.27% 37.07 65.48% -0.994 -0.5374 -0.176
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9672 5.38% 58.83 83.54% 1.624 0.8208 0.688
Start of Game Growth 13668 5.91% 56.96 81.5% -0.099 -0.5389 -0.47
Unlimited Undo 11997 13.39% 47.67 79.94% -0.523 -0.5495 0.449
Using Tokens but Not Events 20867 10.92% 45.1 81.98% 0.359 0.2825 0.402

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 54331 13.93 45.48%
II 62718 30.23 85.5%
III 20959 34.83 93.04%
IV 4443 38.62 99.98%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.292 Win Model: 1.154
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 92853 21.56% 42.99 70.06%
2 22904 11.94% 42.03 75.35%
3 11635 17.4% 44.27 71.59%
4 12355 9.25% 53.49 80.63%
5 198 12.12% 37.79 54.55%
6 2505 2.8% 46.65 62.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24683
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19417
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 53512
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4393
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 8289
Lose: Invader deck ran out 428
Lose: Adversary condition 5038
Win: Sacrifice victory 271
Lose: Scenario condition 21452
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4800
Lose: Spirit destroyed 168

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-05 10:04:38 (Pacific Time)