Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 124 3.23% 23.6 -14.694 54.84% -1.122 -0.5519
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 122 6.61% 32.38 -0.446 68.85% 0.05 0.1775
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 144 16.67% 34.53 -5.617 58.33% -0.908 -0.3035
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 171 14.62% 33.27 -1.692 56.14% -0.434 -0.2236
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 193 20.73% 37.68 1.152 54.4% -0.886 -0.5775
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 228 25.44% 42.9 0.1 50.44% -1.228 -0.0055
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 471 40.13% 32.3 0.799 29.51% -1.881 0.2015
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1129 9.21% 32.29 -6.187 73.6% -0.861 -0.4573
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 765 10.66% 31.42 -7.467 58.3% -1.179 -0.796
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1150 13.04% 41.79 -0.99 68.61% -0.983 -0.4465
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1110 18.24% 42.44 -0.666 62.07% -0.636 0.3242
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 727 25.72% 48.6 8.433 59.56% -0.25 0.8254
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 296 28.04% 40.36 -0.015 38.51% -1.038 0.4891
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3501 27.99% 46.92 2.062 42.79% -1.269 0.0446
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2709 8.55% 28.82 -6.315 79.7% -0.191 -0.0289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2931 10.96% 35.51 -2.936 77.48% -0.319 -0.1838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4425 9.86% 45.65 3.65 83.98% 0.627 0.5758
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4847 13.17% 49.5 6.617 79.12% 0.785 1.0824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3151 13.48% 53.07 5.738 84.67% 0.271 0.4538
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2656 14.15% 60.29 6.471 86.82% 0.131 0.5282
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6048 35.29% 52.51 0.601 64.15% -1.102 0.1377
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3133 10.72% 31.33 1.418 81.23% 0.229 0.5962
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2196 11.09% 35.0 -2.668 72.13% -0.282 0.0943
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3021 14.91% 37.47 0.516 70.34% 0.089 0.6677
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3053 19.15% 40.26 3.427 57.16% -0.106 1.0304
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9133 8.18% 51.08 2.041 76.69% -0.857 0.163
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1717 18.37% 49.96 0.627 55.56% -1.561 -0.0976
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23236 21.26% 52.59 2.092 53.01% -1.546 0.1802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1721 12.52% 32.59 -6.395 77.75% -0.676 -0.2196
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1395 21.97% 32.67 -1.807 69.53% -0.217 0.4873
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1931 18.69% 39.68 -0.281 64.11% -0.496 0.4082
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1887 21.5% 48.28 9.55 68.26% 0.379 1.7164
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1480 18.0% 52.06 11.036 67.03% 0.552 1.8193
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3217 32.14% 62.07 6.324 80.11% 0.053 0.9755
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12151 27.28% 59.72 5.244 65.11% -0.898 0.4039
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 322 11.18% 27.51 -1.783 66.15% 0.366 0.6074
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 426 12.44% 28.18 -5.616 53.76% -0.539 -0.2175
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 563 17.23% 33.06 -2.671 56.84% -0.801 -0.5914
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 753 16.78% 41.13 2.11 58.17% -0.334 -0.265
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 764 21.34% 46.53 5.428 67.8% -0.049 0.5051
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2425 29.24% 48.88 6.734 62.1% 0.228 0.7096
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3871 33.39% 43.45 1.17 40.66% -1.323 -0.2417
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2428 8.46% 27.95 -5.17 75.58% 0.031 0.2993
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2501 9.07% 39.65 2.998 74.53% 0.134 0.2162
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2497 18.05% 33.01 -4.64 67.16% -0.675 -0.5112
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2570 23.62% 40.69 -0.578 71.01% -0.384 -0.1674
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1495 23.49% 41.32 2.248 65.42% 0.202 0.7506
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1143 23.57% 47.14 4.615 70.87% 0.143 0.6238
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10408 23.08% 52.75 7.87 71.99% 0.445 1.1305
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 902 10.21% 29.62 -6.571 77.05% -0.142 0.2926
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 767 22.22% 32.57 1.373 66.23% 0.699 1.5627
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 915 23.72% 39.51 2.252 74.75% 0.299 0.7801
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1083 34.35% 44.64 -6.916 70.08% -1.488 -0.5014
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 893 27.32% 51.1 8.098 71.67% 0.285 1.1175
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 774 30.1% 54.43 11.807 64.34% -0.186 1.1313
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3275 44.02% 47.32 -2.804 41.01% -1.796 0.0117

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 90954 21.07 42.15 69.78% -0.376 -0.1518 -0.146
1 Thematic 14486 22.58 43.87 62.05% -0.528 0.0222 -0.848
2 Archipelago 179 27.93 36.63 48.6% 0.802 0.4479 -0.591
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11636 8.26 39.44 76.71% -0.272 -0.1611 -0.539
2 Coastline 2529 20.74 38.5 65.01% 0.736 0.6471 -0.214
2 Fragment 381 16.71 37.01 72.44% 0.514 0.1754 1.002
2 Heart 251 16.8 36.83 74.5% 0.79 0.4623 1.46
2 Opposite Shores 7823 13.95 41.31 76.94% -0.05 -0.0131 -0.151
2 Thematic 3660 12.05 48.86 62.51% -0.417 0.112 -0.159
2 Top to Top 318 12.66 39.33 71.7% 0.789 0.5824 0.19
3 Archipelago 85 24.71 56.41 81.18% 0.495
3 Coastline 45 6.82 38.16 68.89% 0.467
3 Other 446 8.3 27.27 54.26% -0.434 -1.1765 -0.704
3 Round (Default) 12541 17.33 44.05 70.39% -0.352 -0.4485 -0.204
3 Sunrise 58 12.07 58.31 84.48% -0.236
3 Thematic 625 19.23 40.77 66.72% 0.937 1.1785 -0.954
4 Archipelago 76 18.42 43.57 63.16% 0.17 0.2505 0.488
4 Coastline 7 0.0 57.0 71.43% 0.393
4 Leaf 38 18.42 40.47 57.89% -0.172 -0.7265 0.248
4 Other 280 14.64 53.52 91.79% -0.243 -0.7907 -0.406
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 3225 9.94 61.15 80.12% -0.252 0.2214 -0.034
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9894 9.31 49.37 78.81% -0.033 -0.2222 -0.094
5 Archipelago 15 13.33 42.93 60.0% 0.238
5 Coastline 2 0.0 52.0 50.0% -0.299
5 Other 316 17.09 43.44 69.3% 0.255 -0.0711 1.787
5 Thematic 109 5.5 68.23 80.73% -0.11 -0.6005 -0.066
6 Archipelago 610 1.97 69.13 80.33% 0.3 -0.6257 0.333
6 Coastline 2 0.0 15.5 50.0%
6 Other 271 2.58 44.24 63.84% -0.497 -0.2273 -0.665
6 Star 215 5.58 33.73 56.28% -0.123 0.6729 -0.438
6 Thematic 1388 3.1 48.32 58.5% -0.456 0.1246 0.474
6 Two Centers (Default) 888 2.59 33.9 53.6% 0.799 0.7762 -2.318
7 Archipelago 16 31.25 48.88 18.75% -0.506 -0.1 -0.174
7 Other 11 0.0 17.09 27.27% -0.719 -0.974 0.725

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1950 42.02 58.05% -0.072 0.2384 -0.15
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1639 44.27 58.94% -0.217 -0.2034 -0.232
All Things Weaken 1511 40.47 53.81% -0.308 0.1656 -0.252
Attenuated Essence 403 39.93 56.33% 0.257 0.4034 0.173
Back Against the Wall 1592 42.45 55.84% -0.191 -0.0616 -0.11
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 326 39.29 52.45% 0.298 0.6176 0.21
Burn Brightest Before the End 261 38.97 48.28% -0.087 0.0897 0.143
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1810 37.47 51.77% -0.984 -0.6033 -0.245
Downward Spiral 3662 38.37 58.19% -0.666 -0.473 -0.396
Erosion of Will 1789 40.12 53.94% 0.353 0.6912 -0.02
Intensifying Exploitation 366 37.17 52.46% -0.452 -0.0991 -0.68
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 837 44.34 67.5% -0.119 -0.4819 -0.172
Memory Fades to Dust 3537 37.94 55.44% 0.108 0.4375 -0.598
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1445 41.78 57.51% 0.552 0.8184 -0.277
Promising Farmlands 1770 36.43 46.44% -0.784 -0.3369 -0.51
Shattered Fragments of Power 288 40.29 52.43% 0.252 0.2517 0.335
Slow Dissolution of Will 370 37.36 46.76% -0.231 0.1804 -0.047
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 580 47.06 75.17% 0.301 -0.2574 0.123
The Border of Life and Death 132 38.93 59.85% 0.773 0.5277 0.156
Thriving Communities 1449 37.78 46.38% 0.163 0.4403 -0.399
Thriving Crops 205 33.84 45.37% -0.163 -0.2588 -0.902
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14%
Unnatural Proliferation 1501 39.94 51.63% 0.698 0.9024 -0.412
Untended Land Crumbles 1479 40.89 56.25% -0.926 -0.6264 -0.377

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 39105 15.53% 44.21 73.17% -0.344 0.6473 -0.069
B 39203 15.41% 44.08 73.88% -0.272 0.5931 0.05
C 38988 13.6% 43.46 74.52% -0.235 0.5167 -0.093
D 28974 15.4% 40.82 70.67% -0.282 0.6628 -0.373
E 18886 15.73% 43.36 69.47% -0.214 0.5405 -0.18
F 23501 17.18% 43.94 70.82% -0.473 0.4017 -0.619
G 21500 18.0% 43.0 69.2% -0.134 0.7283 -0.261
H 21765 15.19% 44.28 71.16% -0.35 0.4574 -0.351
East 16474 15.73% 49.08 65.65% -0.538 0.2076 -0.764
Northeast 10170 15.03% 50.25 65.21% -0.325 0.568 0.401
Northwest 7862 14.83% 50.9 67.27% -0.206 0.537 -0.686
Southeast 4594 9.26% 48.61 66.57% -0.279 0.7296 -0.513
Southwest 4232 11.63% 45.78 64.27% -0.989 0.168 -0.44
West 13994 15.81% 48.75 66.59% -0.508 0.4747 0.354

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1291 0.0% 32.65 78.47% -1.725 -1.0054 -0.256
Not Using Events or Tokens 15983 16.02% 36.25 63.95% -0.443 0.0316 0.198
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11158 5.31% 57.94 81.84% 0.7 -0.1052 -0.448
Start of Game Growth 15611 5.79% 56.3 80.13% 0.791 0.2239 0.861
Unlimited Undo 13653 13.27% 47.4 78.51% -0.1 -0.0731 0.723
Using Tokens but Not Events 23859 10.85% 45.48 80.62% 0.707 0.6794 0.207

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 64156 12.25 43.28%
II 70467 29.91 85.11%
III 23770 34.94 93.02%
IV 5078 38.9 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.364 Win Model: 0.132
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 106524 21.29% 42.28 68.53%
2 26118 11.78% 41.49 74.22%
3 13605 17.03% 43.49 70.03%
4 13584 9.51% 52.39 79.36%
5 358 9.5% 42.89 54.47%
6 3281 3.14% 46.94 62.05%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 27738
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22014
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 59845
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5024
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 12676
Lose: Invader deck ran out 497
Lose: Adversary condition 5545
Win: Sacrifice victory 306
Lose: Scenario condition 24321
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5321
Lose: Spirit destroyed 184

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)