Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 426 10.09% 32.03 -5.168 78.64% -0.929 -0.6478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 258 14.96% 33.4 -4.406 67.05% -1.506 -1.1156
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 471 13.79% 44.0 1.061 78.98% -0.964 -0.0933
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 455 15.81% 44.6 1.075 71.43% -1.411 -0.1541
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 250 25.2% 47.61 2.239 62.4% -1.837 -0.308
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 108 26.85% 42.24 -0.325 41.67% -2.715 -0.6887
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1105 31.4% 46.85 2.561 44.07% -2.585 -0.515
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2165 7.92% 30.81 -5.399 87.3% -0.216 -0.1777
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1318 11.12% 33.05 -3.974 80.05% -0.644 -0.6742
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2465 9.62% 44.04 1.202 87.22% -0.223 -0.2183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2597 11.82% 51.3 4.991 89.3% -0.102 0.189
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1924 11.25% 53.94 6.246 89.14% -0.093 0.2676
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1072 19.79% 59.75 8.758 85.73% -0.407 0.4215
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3623 40.1% 54.54 7.195 68.51% -1.296 -0.0517
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2103 9.02% 30.47 -5.552 86.21% -0.303 0.0279
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1152 12.48% 37.55 -1.717 78.47% -0.718 -0.2176
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2101 14.84% 38.58 -1.396 74.49% -1.1 -0.1308
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2007 20.51% 40.55 -0.56 59.69% -1.894 -0.3153
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4662 10.35% 53.3 4.98 79.75% -1.188 0.3134
The Kingdom of England 5 9 955 20.74% 51.89 3.794 57.91% -2.184 -0.114
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12532 23.41% 54.39 6.396 53.8% -2.166 0.0857
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1598 11.34% 34.59 -3.581 86.3% -0.401 0.124
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 790 27.17% 33.66 -3.849 70.38% -1.178 -0.2845
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1364 19.53% 41.09 -0.136 69.13% -1.357 0.7718
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1451 20.03% 50.25 4.44 73.33% -1.208 0.9789
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1124 19.52% 54.24 6.18 72.15% -1.305 0.8374
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1306 30.47% 62.92 10.093 82.85% -0.485 1.3382
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6748 28.57% 61.95 10.246 69.62% -1.444 0.6712
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1911 8.19% 30.03 -5.77 83.99% -0.504 -0.4149
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1127 13.64% 32.29 -4.399 77.55% -0.759 -0.7391
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1644 15.99% 33.57 -3.865 72.45% -1.09 -0.8673
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1689 22.58% 43.52 1.261 79.34% -0.747 -0.4609
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1027 24.66% 43.86 1.189 70.98% -1.219 -0.4519
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 718 24.02% 48.01 3.119 70.89% -1.184 -0.024
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5184 20.75% 53.71 5.822 77.31% -1.076 0.0561
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 310 9.68% 30.08 -6.27 90.32% -0.034 -0.1537
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 171 21.05% 36.29 -2.812 82.46% -0.616 0.1028
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 295 23.73% 42.99 0.346 87.8% -0.231 0.2112
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 421 32.78% 48.52 3.294 80.76% -0.778 0.4729
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 255 31.76% 51.96 4.643 77.65% -0.98 0.1436
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 206 40.78% 54.9 6.513 63.59% -1.712 0.335
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 793 51.64% 53.54 5.479 48.05% -2.553 -0.6187

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 48022 21.48 43.39 -0.391 74.62% -0.786 -0.4585
1 Thematic 7304 23.1 45.52 0.982 69.96% -0.864 -0.39
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8126 8.57 40.78 -0.691 82.61% -0.456 -0.2591
2 Coastline 1351 23.65 41.01 -1.772 66.69% -0.865 -0.7145
2 Fragment 271 11.11 38.66 -2.267 74.54% -0.695 -0.2909
2 Heart 149 16.11 42.67 -0.145 85.91% -0.465 -0.153
2 Opposite Shores 4025 15.86 42.06 -0.948 78.83% -0.483 -0.2599
2 Thematic 2484 14.7 47.82 0.34 65.86% -0.424 -0.395
2 Top to Top 192 17.2 41.96 -1.087 72.4% -0.713 -0.5727
3 Coastline 38 8.11 49.61 1.078 84.21% -0.243 -0.29
3 Other 186 10.22 41.03 -1.455 74.19% -0.647 -0.2082
3 Round (Default) 6696 15.59 43.64 -0.649 73.06% -0.343 -0.2846
3 Sunrise 52 11.54 62.1 4.971 84.62% 0.202 0.0043
3 Thematic 404 14.36 43.85 -2.136 72.52% 0.202 -0.1587
4 Coastline 27 7.41 35.3 -5.104 33.33% -0.726 -0.5551
4 Leaf 22 18.18 41.32 -1.557 68.18% 0.024 0.087
4 Other 224 12.05 51.73 3.311 91.96% 1.056 1.1868
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 5.894 100.0% 0.309 -0.4714
4 Snake 1 0.0 54.0 3.503 100.0% 0.077 0.2326
4 Thematic 2725 8.12 64.88 3.541 85.1% 2.042 0.9823
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6379 9.63 49.69 1.265 79.7% 0.26 0.2976
5 Other 47 29.79 48.57 2.222 93.62% 0.663 0.464
5 Thematic 42 4.76 79.31 11.574 97.62% 2.819 -0.1379

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1350 41.21 -2.541 57.56% -0.643 1.4273
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1091 44.12 -1.324 60.49% -0.506 1.4157
All Things Weaken 522 39.37 -3.132 57.47% -0.775 1.3782
Back Against the Wall 1082 42.58 -1.937 58.78% -0.572 1.5245
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1164 37.37 -4.412 54.9% -0.811 1.4149
Downward Spiral 2661 40.07 -2.418 61.93% -0.58 1.4388
Erosion of Will 1190 39.93 -3.24 54.79% -0.779 1.4313
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 281 44.31 -0.628 71.53% -0.147 0.5462
Memory Fades to Dust 2576 38.3 -3.225 58.07% -0.77 1.4459
Power Corrodes the Spirit 464 43.07 -1.499 65.73% -0.32 1.6969
Promising Farmlands 1217 36.71 -4.697 49.88% -1.024 1.1899
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 215 44.36 -0.589 76.28% 0.08 0.5106
Thriving Communities 478 36.7 -4.663 48.54% -1.141 0.9548
Tipping Point 683 39.47 -3.53 56.08% -0.71 1.511
Unnatural Proliferation 490 39.33 -3.061 54.9% -0.827 1.259
Untended Land Crumbles 481 41.62 -2.027 65.07% -0.403 1.6928

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 24385 16.15% 44.93 0.277 76.63% 1.46 0.3587
B 23573 15.87% 44.19 -0.14 77.58% 1.299 0.1024
C 24112 14.09% 43.82 -0.187 78.23% 1.371 -0.0579
D 19316 15.13% 41.97 -0.989 77.04% 1.282 0.0908
E 5234 18.04% 46.76 0.578 75.95% 1.356 0.0573
F 9679 17.31% 46.8 0.667 76.35% 1.418 0.1635
G 9055 18.33% 44.53 -0.384 72.92% 1.205 -0.0376
H 8827 16.07% 44.99 -0.084 74.66% 1.259 0.0017
East 5893 14.04% 55.74 2.334 76.82% 1.192 0.2318
Northeast 5659 15.19% 54.01 1.77 73.83% 0.995 0.0941
Northwest 5021 15.6% 54.89 1.937 75.02% 1.174 0.1995
Southeast 1032 8.59% 53.8 1.887 85.66% 1.519 0.5143
Southwest 1007 10.93% 49.63 -1.138 80.64% 0.748 0.1485
West 5820 13.18% 55.6 2.312 76.43% 1.136 0.4368

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 905 0.0% 34.22 -5.083 83.87% -0.66 1.3883
Not Using Events or Tokens 8956 18.08% 39.61 -1.4 69.45% -0.276 -0.0559
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4860 4.99% 56.82 4.119 90.27% 1.231 0.5265
Start of Game Growth 7533 5.25% 55.54 2.968 87.14% 0.006 -0.4454
Unlimited Undo 7837 14.53% 49.75 1.696 84.98% 0.484 0.0675
Using Tokens but Not Events 12433 13.75% 43.0 -0.698 85.72% 0.427 0.3763

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31019 22.33 50.87%
II 40732 30.75 86.25%
III 14012 34.25 93.06%
IV 3006 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.347 Win Model: -1.562
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 55456 21.69% 43.69 74.06%
2 16518 12.65% 42.09 77.56%
3 7367 15.34% 43.73 73.19%
4 9427 9.25% 54.2 81.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 11392
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9740
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 25919
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2216
Lose: Invader deck ran out 359
Lose: Adversary condition 3316
Win: Sacrifice victory 173
Lose: Scenario condition 14997
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3036
Lose: Spirit destroyed 105

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)