Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 709 10.16% 33.7 -5.208 78.7% -0.656 -0.4737
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 442 12.81% 34.55 -3.286 68.1% -0.985 -0.5535
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 788 13.97% 43.89 -0.305 74.11% -0.598 0.1133
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 750 18.98% 45.39 0.858 67.87% -1.034 -0.0067
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 428 25.23% 49.12 4.635 62.38% -0.87 0.2528
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 149 31.54% 42.28 -5.672 38.93% -1.356 0.1661
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2142 31.47% 48.82 2.312 42.67% -1.369 0.5575
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2081 8.62% 30.75 -5.927 86.21% -0.471 -0.4125
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1821 11.09% 37.7 -3.036 83.42% 0.122 0.0112
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2651 10.59% 45.42 2.514 86.61% 0.18 0.1011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2944 10.89% 52.34 5.216 88.89% -0.237 0.0515
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2302 12.78% 54.45 6.16 89.14% 0.095 0.115
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1322 19.2% 60.94 8.352 87.75% -0.24 0.198
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3698 38.05% 56.44 5.638 69.42% -0.863 0.4065
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2025 9.99% 30.89 -7.83 85.43% -0.797 -0.6458
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1413 11.61% 38.46 -1.717 79.69% -0.546 -0.3196
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2113 14.66% 39.14 -1.255 74.16% -0.568 0.1798
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2118 21.01% 41.84 0.005 60.95% -0.991 0.174
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5723 9.23% 55.06 4.487 82.96% -0.866 0.1424
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1122 19.75% 53.55 5.705 60.34% -1.106 0.442
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15714 23.19% 55.91 4.963 55.63% -1.359 0.6255
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1363 11.9% 34.7 -1.622 84.08% 0.064 0.3811
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 922 24.67% 34.96 -4.376 74.84% -0.634 0.3178
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1332 19.59% 41.47 -5.113 67.87% -1.519 -0.3675
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1367 22.29% 50.43 5.029 72.57% -0.536 0.9029
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1093 18.42% 53.14 4.082 69.08% -0.626 0.7421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1887 32.17% 63.2 10.534 83.84% -0.078 0.8821
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8446 28.84% 62.76 9.052 68.88% -0.796 0.6053
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 91 10.99% 33.19 -4.207 83.52% -0.356 -0.5051
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 80 11.25% 32.71 -5.641 63.75% -1.119 -0.6478
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 128 14.84% 37.39 -2.673 63.28% -0.796 -0.3936
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 194 18.56% 44.57 1.529 63.4% -0.799 -0.4745
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 283 20.49% 50.8 3.245 78.09% -0.741 -0.1746
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 531 36.53% 52.23 4.676 68.17% -0.567 0.1926
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1195 41.67% 46.98 1.664 39.5% -1.707 -0.4406
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1856 8.43% 30.21 -5.828 83.08% -0.34 -0.2272
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1311 12.7% 33.84 -0.015 79.56% 0.013 -0.0236
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1664 17.82% 34.31 -3.881 71.45% -1.066 -0.834
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1734 23.79% 43.2 -1.244 77.16% -0.72 -0.3916
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1016 24.63% 44.03 -1.646 71.06% -1.218 -0.6085
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 705 26.61% 49.36 2.148 73.62% -0.793 0.2427
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6391 23.74% 54.45 4.36 74.39% -0.588 0.1943
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 570 11.23% 30.98 -7.271 84.74% -0.432 -0.4644
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 404 21.34% 37.18 -4.183 78.22% -0.881 -0.2783
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 559 25.58% 42.67 -3.192 81.75% -0.661 -0.3428
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 746 34.99% 47.69 1.806 76.94% -0.614 0.4599
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 520 25.77% 53.35 4.054 78.27% -0.642 0.351
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 391 34.53% 58.61 0.552 68.03% -1.299 0.1266
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1956 47.31% 55.01 -0.325 47.44% -1.835 0.1061

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 57879 22.39 44.2 73.81% 0.76 1.0075 -0.281
1 Thematic 8701 23.02 46.11 67.64% 0.495 1.1468 -0.506
2 Archipelago 85 23.53 42.99 57.65% 0.104 0.6152 -0.737
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8332 7.98 42.3 82.83% 0.664 0.8508 0.096
2 Coastline 1694 24.51 40.18 64.23% -0.069 -0.0152 -1.252
2 Fragment 290 17.07 39.6 72.41% 0.012 -0.1209 0.137
2 Heart 151 18.54 41.92 81.46% -0.547 -0.7654 -0.661
2 Opposite Shores 4972 15.04 42.63 78.6% 0.546 0.7336 -0.507
2 Thematic 2425 12.15 53.53 69.94% 0.512 1.1018 0.125
2 Top to Top 203 12.37 42.67 74.88% -0.369 -0.2739 -0.05
3 Archipelago 39 33.33 56.03 76.92% -0.312 -1.258 -0.7
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.342 -0.0414 1.529
3 Other 277 10.11 37.18 75.45% -1.846 -2.1148 0.045
3 Round (Default) 7920 17.57 46.04 74.08% -0.018 -0.0206 -0.176
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 1.006
3 Thematic 367 17.49 46.66 77.66% 0.214 0.1028 0.367
4 Archipelago 36 27.78 46.56 58.33% 0.451 0.6785 -1.197
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.32
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.088
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.198 0.3382 1.038
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2678 7.66 65.72 86.18% -0.028 -0.062 0.596
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7272 9.4 51.77 81.79% -0.063 -0.233 0.338
5 Archipelago 7 14.29 50.43 71.43% 0.624 -0.5378 0.164
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.287
5 Other 171 22.81 48.33 78.95% 0.069 -0.5038 0.257
5 Thematic 79 6.33 75.05 93.67% 0.249 -0.1584 1.925
6 Archipelago 41 7.32 60.12 75.61% 0.177 -0.1953 -0.594
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 113 0.88 54.81 76.11% -0.71 -1.1888 -0.515
6 Star 75 6.67 36.91 66.67% -0.357 0.0353 -0.43
6 Thematic 407 3.44 58.51 73.96% -0.97 -0.5599 0.066
6 Two Centers (Default) 418 3.11 47.79 72.25% -1.653 -1.441 -0.934
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 1.043 0.5296 0.445
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.442

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1483 42.22 57.32% -0.112 0.203 -0.604
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1243 43.83 57.68% -0.09 0.0433 -0.599
All Things Weaken 1028 41.77 56.61% -0.346 0.1755 -0.749
Attenuated Essence 22 43.41 59.09% -0.407 -0.0461 -0.558
Back Against the Wall 1209 42.5 55.91% 0.225 0.4745 -0.611
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 32.4 35.0% -0.906 -0.3521 -0.818
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 38.11 50.0% -0.511 -0.0763 -0.153
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1326 38.31 53.17% -0.488 0.1113 -1.016
Downward Spiral 2647 39.65 59.54% -0.309 0.0966 -0.612
Erosion of Will 1333 39.8 52.96% -0.075 0.4617 -0.823
Intensifying Exploitation 22 34.09 50.0% -0.695 -0.1798 -0.997
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 563 45.98 68.92% -0.529 -0.9712 -0.329
Memory Fades to Dust 2513 38.91 57.22% -0.8 -0.2665 -0.727
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1009 43.4 60.26% -0.451 -0.0992 -0.538
Promising Farmlands 1286 37.4 46.97% -1.193 -0.5189 -1.047
Shattered Fragments of Power 25 47.4 72.0% 0.504 0.8056 -0.222
Slow Dissolution of Will 24 42.67 50.0% -0.239 0.4086 -0.75
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 396 47.08 77.02% -0.027 -0.6931 0.014
The Border of Life and Death 8 34.13 50.0% -0.274 -0.299 -0.23
Thriving Communities 972 38.02 46.3% -0.247 0.3298 -1.045
Thriving Crops 14 27.21 42.86% -0.641 -0.393 -1.119
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.049
Unnatural Proliferation 1016 40.45 52.26% -0.757 -0.38 -0.898
Untended Land Crumbles 1024 42.3 59.38% -0.487 -0.0566 -0.647

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25640 16.58% 46.06 76.36% -0.386 0.4731 -0.217
B 25588 16.05% 46.16 78.17% -0.144 0.6358 -0.051
C 25340 13.99% 45.49 79.34% -0.421 0.2314 -0.094
D 18764 15.88% 43.43 76.99% -0.313 0.5017 -0.172
E 10737 17.46% 47.08 74.93% -0.394 0.2469 -0.121
F 15498 18.25% 46.93 75.28% -0.362 0.3701 -0.22
G 14286 19.03% 44.87 72.48% -0.349 0.4082 -0.384
H 13965 16.02% 46.32 75.64% -0.349 0.3187 -0.104
East 10009 14.84% 54.14 74.57% -0.621 0.0064 -0.011
Northeast 6080 14.14% 55.83 74.61% -0.505 0.3924 0.027
Northwest 5205 15.06% 56.26 75.08% -0.508 0.1364 -0.02
Southeast 2266 8.75% 55.08 80.14% -0.144 0.538 -0.055
Southwest 2188 12.01% 51.73 76.19% -0.48 0.6996 -0.666
West 9189 15.54% 53.55 74.0% -0.269 0.7228 -0.094

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 950 0.0% 34.82 84.32% -1.036 -0.0728 -0.361
Not Using Events or Tokens 9758 16.99% 40.57 70.3% -0.119 0.1806 -0.093
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7232 5.4% 60.65 87.83% 0.618 0.0838 1.234
Start of Game Growth 10441 5.8% 58.39 85.37% -0.028 -0.3813 -0.995
Unlimited Undo 9588 13.37% 49.94 84.55% -0.615 -0.6483 0.692
Using Tokens but Not Events 14866 11.95% 46.27 87.72% 0.46 0.3979 0.657

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37245 21.26 50.61%
II 48033 31.05 85.95%
III 16334 34.73 92.97%
IV 3425 38.01 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.047 Win Model: 0.612
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 67007 22.49% 44.46 72.98%
2 17918 12.2% 43.66 77.97%
3 8594 17.31% 45.87 74.59%
4 10371 9.12% 55.59 83.16%
5 90 20.0% 46.03 71.11%
6 1056 3.32% 52.4 73.11%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18834
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15116
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41205
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3387
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 628
Lose: Invader deck ran out 345
Lose: Adversary condition 4170
Win: Sacrifice victory 202
Lose: Scenario condition 17189
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3829
Lose: Spirit destroyed 132

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-25 04:12:57 (Pacific Time)