Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 727 10.45% 33.47 -4.683 78.13% -0.596 -0.3337
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 451 12.56% 34.1 -4.848 66.96% -1.268 -0.9026
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 806 13.91% 43.8 1.268 73.57% -0.592 0.1701
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 775 18.75% 45.51 2.831 67.87% -0.787 0.2675
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 436 25.0% 49.38 8.699 62.39% -0.469 0.853
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 156 30.77% 42.53 1.763 39.74% -1.173 0.57
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2236 30.59% 48.96 3.025 43.29% -1.389 0.6481
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2103 8.67% 30.7 -5.333 85.88% -0.618 -0.5016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1852 10.96% 37.56 -2.858 83.21% -0.073 -0.1655
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2688 10.63% 45.42 2.776 86.5% 0.134 0.1224
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3136 11.67% 51.61 1.022 86.42% -0.439 -0.2316
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2346 12.89% 54.27 6.411 88.79% 0.104 0.2459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1372 18.86% 60.87 9.543 87.68% 0.002 0.5244
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3773 37.88% 56.32 5.203 69.36% -0.849 0.4525
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2043 9.95% 30.87 -5.795 85.27% -0.552 -0.3034
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1440 11.75% 38.38 -1.72 79.51% -0.623 -0.4568
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2155 14.75% 39.06 -1.191 73.97% -0.59 0.1272
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2156 21.11% 41.77 -0.377 60.9% -1.068 0.0608
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5813 9.23% 54.99 5.072 82.83% -0.769 0.235
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1130 19.7% 53.56 4.753 60.35% -1.301 0.3281
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16073 23.1% 55.68 3.445 55.42% -1.424 0.6337
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1382 11.81% 34.47 -5.073 83.57% -0.479 -0.0823
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 946 24.15% 34.78 -4.155 74.42% -0.658 0.2987
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1361 19.47% 40.95 -4.617 66.94% -1.466 -0.3854
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1392 22.1% 50.41 5.901 72.49% -0.465 0.8625
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1118 18.28% 52.79 2.335 68.43% -1.055 0.365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1913 31.99% 63.24 12.498 83.95% 0.464 1.3154
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8601 28.79% 62.61 9.305 68.71% -0.735 0.5741
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 101 10.89% 32.6 -4.435 82.18% -0.392 -0.4276
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 88 11.36% 32.52 -4.892 63.64% -0.978 -0.5516
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 140 15.0% 36.73 -2.69 63.57% -0.772 -0.404
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 216 18.06% 43.61 1.31 62.5% -0.77 -0.395
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 309 21.68% 50.39 4.092 77.35% -0.608 -0.0095
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 672 34.08% 49.64 3.282 64.29% -0.848 -0.0803
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1324 41.39% 46.4 1.611 39.12% -1.774 -0.5089
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1888 8.39% 29.89 -6.211 82.1% -0.503 -0.3349
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1339 12.58% 33.98 0.781 79.39% -0.198 -0.1964
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1685 18.25% 34.32 -2.283 71.34% -0.739 -0.5211
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1776 23.68% 42.94 -2.224 76.3% -1.12 -0.6902
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1035 24.66% 43.92 -0.784 70.72% -1.125 -0.5618
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 723 27.48% 48.9 -0.471 72.61% -1.185 -0.262
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6571 23.86% 54.27 5.024 74.17% -0.417 0.4289
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 582 11.17% 30.92 -7.055 84.36% -0.404 -0.286
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 410 21.27% 36.89 -5.364 77.56% -1.132 -0.5739
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 582 24.91% 42.44 -1.594 81.27% -0.491 -0.1331
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 763 34.99% 47.55 1.065 76.67% -0.824 0.3275
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 545 24.77% 53.1 3.02 77.61% -0.897 0.0984
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 402 34.08% 58.44 1.658 67.91% -1.166 0.3312
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1993 47.19% 54.55 -4.707 46.91% -2.501 -0.5842

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 59009 22.37 44.1 73.65% 0.56 0.6725 -0.369
1 Thematic 9121 22.96 45.88 66.63% 0.29 0.8547 -0.617
2 Archipelago 86 23.26 43.49 58.14% 0.633 0.9579 -0.758
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8483 7.97 42.23 82.69% 0.495 0.5892 0.024
2 Coastline 1741 24.19 39.77 63.58% -0.537 -0.5963 -1.346
2 Fragment 292 16.96 39.56 72.6% 0.189 0.0358 0.044
2 Heart 152 19.08 42.08 81.58% -0.375 -0.6967 -0.57
2 Opposite Shores 5106 15.28 42.6 78.07% -0.016 0.0442 -0.646
2 Thematic 2477 12.01 53.37 69.64% 0.522 1.0815 0.127
2 Top to Top 204 12.31 42.78 75.0% -0.141 -0.2188 -0.13
3 Archipelago 47 34.04 59.68 80.85% 0.83 -0.7685 -0.257
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.419 -0.0263 1.453
3 Other 374 8.29 27.95 56.68% -2.28 -1.7432 -0.008
3 Round (Default) 8093 17.42 46.02 74.05% -0.165 -0.3249 -0.278
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.88
3 Thematic 377 17.02 46.46 76.66% -0.085 -0.0195 0.323
4 Archipelago 40 27.5 48.88 62.5% 1.181 0.5249 -0.877
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.785 1.0091 0.538
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.126
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.249 0.1325 1.039
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2711 7.9 65.34 85.58% -0.059 -0.2327 0.549
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7346 9.4 51.6 81.57% -0.201 -0.4029 0.255
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 56.5 75.0% 0.446 -0.6943 0.12
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.039 -0.3995 0.25
5 Other 174 22.41 48.45 79.31% 0.423 -0.0423 0.295
5 Thematic 81 6.17 73.2 91.36% -0.37 -0.3459 1.909
6 Archipelago 46 6.52 59.22 73.91% 0.082 0.4505 -0.696
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 126 0.79 54.86 76.19% -1.013 -1.3811 -0.566
6 Star 77 6.49 37.29 67.53% -0.268 -0.0918 -0.475
6 Thematic 451 3.55 55.82 70.29% -0.412 0.0601 0.161
6 Two Centers (Default) 437 2.97 46.83 70.94% -2.301 -2.219 -1.065
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 0.809 0.7054 0.466
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.455

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1503 42.15 57.09% -0.306 -0.1073 -0.594
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1259 43.83 57.9% 0.405 0.3384 -0.574
All Things Weaken 1048 41.66 56.49% -0.24 0.1275 -0.72
Attenuated Essence 47 41.23 51.06% -0.425 -0.3543 -0.727
Back Against the Wall 1227 42.56 56.15% 0.655 0.7242 -0.598
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 28 33.96 39.29% -0.624 -0.3676 -0.719
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 34.9 38.71% -0.666 -0.4916 -0.639
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1344 38.23 53.05% -0.519 -0.0799 -1.004
Downward Spiral 2718 39.56 59.42% -0.125 0.1208 -0.578
Erosion of Will 1348 39.73 52.89% -0.303 0.0151 -0.821
Intensifying Exploitation 35 36.51 54.29% -0.315 -0.0459 -0.703
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 570 45.91 68.77% -0.261 -0.7703 -0.313
Memory Fades to Dust 2561 38.94 57.24% -0.393 -0.0287 -0.67
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1024 43.35 60.16% -0.21 0.0267 -0.508
Promising Farmlands 1301 37.33 46.96% -0.498 -0.0374 -1.034
Shattered Fragments of Power 37 46.95 67.57% 0.6 0.6551 -0.271
Slow Dissolution of Will 32 40.72 50.0% -0.151 0.2565 -0.629
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 401 47.11 76.81% -0.411 -1.0539 0.002
The Border of Life and Death 12 37.0 50.0% -0.162 -0.5489 -0.383
Thriving Communities 1002 37.88 45.91% -0.354 0.003 -1.019
Thriving Crops 23 31.48 47.83% -0.335 -0.4503 -0.706
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.039
Unnatural Proliferation 1042 40.54 52.4% -0.19 -0.0165 -0.856
Untended Land Crumbles 1035 42.26 59.23% -0.23 0.0182 -0.626

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26069 16.57% 45.98 76.28% -0.274 0.5591 -0.259
B 26225 15.98% 45.91 77.71% -0.283 0.5164 -0.089
C 25951 13.95% 45.24 78.78% -0.387 0.2701 -0.144
D 19106 15.9% 43.29 76.69% -0.5 0.2936 -0.251
E 11157 17.1% 46.45 73.9% -0.595 0.0327 -0.199
F 15760 18.23% 46.8 75.13% -0.411 0.302 -0.276
G 14536 19.0% 44.78 72.34% -0.38 0.3583 -0.433
H 14218 16.03% 46.22 75.45% -0.457 0.2023 -0.153
East 10449 15.01% 53.55 73.33% -0.765 -0.1573 -0.085
Northeast 6384 14.36% 54.97 73.07% -0.773 -0.0242 -0.145
Northwest 5318 15.06% 55.79 74.35% -0.553 0.2626 -0.06
Southeast 2388 8.72% 54.5 78.56% -0.185 0.5438 -0.134
Southwest 2293 11.98% 50.89 74.44% -0.805 0.2597 -0.806
West 9416 15.53% 53.15 73.25% -0.402 0.5476 -0.183

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 952 0.0% 34.83 84.35% -1.235 -0.4215 -0.28
Not Using Events or Tokens 10153 17.1% 40.41 69.83% -0.228 0.1081 -0.151
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7399 5.35% 60.6 87.44% 1.204 0.5705 1.209
Start of Game Growth 10649 5.76% 58.34 85.04% -0.15 -0.4402 -0.968
Unlimited Undo 9746 13.19% 49.95 84.34% -0.455 -0.4521 0.707
Using Tokens but Not Events 15340 11.88% 46.0 86.64% 0.377 0.3021 0.6

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 38362 20.63 49.9%
II 49017 31.02 85.89%
III 16601 34.75 92.98%
IV 3491 38.05 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.094 Win Model: 0.684
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 68581 22.47% 44.34 72.68%
2 18297 12.22% 43.55 77.65%
3 8877 16.99% 45.41 73.77%
4 10481 9.19% 55.38 82.86%
5 111 17.12% 40.29 61.26%
6 1123 3.3% 51.83 72.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19126
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15364
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 42018
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3453
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1177
Lose: Invader deck ran out 350
Lose: Adversary condition 4230
Win: Sacrifice victory 208
Lose: Scenario condition 17515
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3898
Lose: Spirit destroyed 132

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)