Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 43 2.33% 24.05 -5.402 60.47% -0.347 -0.1813
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 40 7.5% 32.8 -2.192 72.5% -0.207 -0.3446
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 37 10.81% 30.95 -3.982 56.76% -0.823 -0.7665
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 73 12.33% 34.92 0.305 60.27% -0.277 -0.2759
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 57 29.82% 33.47 -1.31 42.11% -1.425 -1.0619
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 38 26.32% 46.32 5.06 55.26% -0.783 -0.0052
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 143 46.85% 28.24 -2.769 26.57% -2.057 -0.3688
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1012 8.99% 32.87 -7.472 75.2% -0.826 -0.4161
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 643 11.29% 32.66 -1.216 62.21% -0.345 -0.0502
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1034 13.35% 42.17 2.232 70.12% -0.393 0.141
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 983 18.46% 43.51 -1.551 64.39% -1.602 -0.5732
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 651 26.57% 49.29 8.841 60.52% -0.09 1.3661
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 243 28.4% 40.71 6.359 37.45% -0.559 1.3623
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3172 28.72% 47.29 -1.345 43.0% -1.931 -0.0991
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2531 8.64% 29.3 -4.899 81.35% -0.236 -0.0501
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2631 10.8% 35.59 0.443 78.15% 0.288 0.3498
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3828 9.99% 45.6 2.739 84.33% 0.093 0.1535
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4348 13.07% 50.07 5.638 80.98% 0.27 0.5049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2949 13.37% 53.41 6.389 85.69% -0.033 0.2773
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2204 15.05% 60.01 9.731 86.52% 0.097 0.497
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5136 35.36% 53.58 4.965 66.74% -0.923 0.3669
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2769 10.4% 30.95 -4.057 81.87% -0.031 0.2885
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1969 11.3% 35.78 -3.292 73.59% -0.74 -0.4841
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2808 14.76% 37.77 -1.704 70.98% -0.558 -0.0101
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2722 19.94% 40.3 -1.902 58.01% -1.241 -0.1454
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8319 8.13% 51.66 5.073 77.73% -0.515 0.4722
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1598 17.99% 50.94 1.112 57.01% -1.931 -0.2581
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20380 21.6% 53.84 4.121 54.23% -1.288 0.6454
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1602 12.08% 33.25 -5.501 79.46% -1.074 -0.6736
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1266 22.86% 33.14 -3.731 70.7% -0.618 0.0971
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1761 18.62% 39.96 0.832 64.96% -0.682 0.5027
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1729 21.59% 48.78 -1.579 69.35% -1.617 -0.3142
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1351 18.38% 52.09 6.623 66.99% -0.147 1.1445
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2844 33.54% 62.37 9.384 81.05% -0.698 0.4952
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10995 27.52% 61.04 8.69 67.02% -0.69 0.6883
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 266 12.41% 28.26 -3.171 68.05% -0.153 0.1116
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 329 13.07% 29.51 -5.187 56.53% -1.017 -0.5804
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 403 18.86% 32.98 -0.229 57.07% -0.37 -0.0315
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 592 18.95% 40.82 3.521 56.42% -0.078 -0.1111
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 612 23.04% 46.8 0.911 69.12% -0.803 -0.2067
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1952 29.41% 49.32 5.14 63.73% -0.384 0.1445
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2855 37.1% 44.19 -0.573 40.21% -1.827 -0.7819
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2280 8.57% 28.38 -7.603 77.06% -1.026 -0.7101
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2133 9.83% 38.04 1.65 75.06% -0.083 0.0112
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2290 18.42% 33.15 -0.483 67.95% -0.007 0.2132
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2317 23.98% 41.24 2.206 72.25% -0.034 0.2619
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1343 23.99% 42.01 -0.335 66.64% -0.627 0.192
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 896 27.64% 46.86 5.975 68.86% -0.036 1.0877
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9222 23.36% 53.08 4.558 72.26% -0.631 0.3428
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 809 10.77% 29.78 -7.242 78.24% -0.756 -0.5404
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 644 21.65% 33.49 -6.614 68.63% -0.971 -0.1699
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 838 23.99% 39.89 -3.44 75.78% -0.922 -0.6775
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 984 34.86% 45.74 -0.3 72.56% -0.621 0.409
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 806 26.67% 51.34 2.017 71.84% -1.014 0.0451
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 648 31.02% 55.26 8.0 65.28% -0.352 1.1664
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2961 44.65% 48.32 -4.3 41.81% -2.346 -0.7197

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 80234 21.34 42.76 71.23% 0.38 0.6487 -0.324
1 Thematic 13119 22.58 44.33 63.01% 0.026 0.5794 -0.632
2 Archipelago 161 28.57 36.57 46.58% -0.243 0.4319 -1.086
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10660 8.18 40.08 77.91% -0.272 -0.185 -0.124
2 Coastline 2235 22.13 38.51 64.38% 0.612 0.4486 -1.21
2 Fragment 345 17.3 37.92 72.17% 0.865 0.6513 0.001
2 Heart 205 18.05 37.84 77.07% -0.139 -0.558 -0.78
2 Opposite Shores 6778 14.51 41.77 77.56% 0.855 0.917 -0.466
2 Thematic 3263 12.1 49.62 64.54% -0.025 0.3457 0.186
2 Top to Top 275 12.03 40.1 73.45% 0.213 0.0454 0.101
3 Archipelago 71 29.58 58.45 80.28% 0.509 -0.4211 0.283
3 Coastline 42 7.32 40.67 73.81% 0.512 -0.0898 0.99
3 Other 425 7.76 26.88 55.29% 0.081 -0.5737 -0.046
3 Round (Default) 10897 17.77 44.8 71.91% 0.179 0.0658 -0.23
3 Sunrise 55 12.73 60.22 85.45% 0.918
3 Thematic 529 17.99 42.93 70.89% -0.571 -0.6499 0.42
4 Archipelago 67 20.9 43.93 61.19% 0.324 0.0807 -1.005
4 Coastline 7 0.0 57.0 71.43% -0.31 -0.436 0.065
4 Leaf 35 17.14 40.86 60.0% -0.899
4 Other 270 14.81 54.09 92.59% 0.707 -0.142 1.027
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 3006 8.99 62.68 82.47% -0.612 -0.7716 0.689
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9072 9.12 50.0 79.41% -0.457 -0.6416 0.198
5 Archipelago 15 13.33 42.93 60.0% -1.055 -0.862 0.461
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.24
5 Other 252 17.86 43.29 70.63% 0.778 0.1354 0.399
5 Thematic 98 6.12 69.33 83.67% 1.959
6 Archipelago 421 2.61 66.62 77.67% -0.385 -1.3446 -1.005
6 Coastline 2 0.0 15.5 50.0%
6 Other 232 0.86 47.21 67.24% -0.772 -1.0349 -0.939
6 Star 147 4.76 34.46 61.9% -0.7 -0.6184 -0.742
6 Thematic 1144 3.06 47.04 57.95% -0.164 -0.0637 0.02
6 Two Centers (Default) 686 2.62 36.74 58.16% -1.03 -0.5681 -1.802
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 49.33 33.33% 0.503 0.2943 0.889
7 Other 7 0.0 21.71 28.57% -0.31 -0.9675 -0.358

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1806 42.17 58.14% -0.44 -0.2782 -0.433
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1520 44.43 59.34% 0.802 0.7122 -0.395
All Things Weaken 1365 40.69 54.51% -0.333 -0.0426 -0.643
Attenuated Essence 284 40.28 57.39% -0.287 -0.3034 -0.409
Back Against the Wall 1481 42.79 56.25% 0.443 0.5009 -0.482
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 213 39.6 53.05% 0.154 0.3298 -0.623
Burn Brightest Before the End 184 39.01 45.11% -0.491 -0.494 -0.812
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1673 37.75 52.06% -0.446 -0.188 -0.848
Downward Spiral 3358 38.89 59.02% 0.32 0.4126 -0.43
Erosion of Will 1654 39.97 53.63% -0.68 -0.4378 -0.678
Intensifying Exploitation 244 39.1 54.51% 0.534 0.7606 -0.537
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 748 44.85 68.98% 0.105 -0.4907 -0.171
Memory Fades to Dust 3238 38.55 56.52% -0.688 -0.4692 -0.531
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1311 42.44 58.5% -0.247 -0.0145 -0.442
Promising Farmlands 1603 36.96 47.1% -0.26 -0.0283 -0.957
Shattered Fragments of Power 198 40.2 47.98% -0.282 -0.1949 -0.764
Slow Dissolution of Will 249 37.32 47.39% 0.042 0.3664 -0.817
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 521 47.21 76.2% 0.875 0.2245 0.124
The Border of Life and Death 92 39.58 61.96% 0.464 -0.0745 -0.332
Thriving Communities 1284 37.9 46.65% -0.09 0.1377 -0.864
Thriving Crops 135 35.71 49.63% 0.008 -0.2584 -0.597
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -0.969
Unnatural Proliferation 1338 40.22 51.72% -0.107 0.072 -0.701
Untended Land Crumbles 1324 41.57 57.25% -0.134 0.0913 -0.508

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 34185 15.83% 44.52 74.17% -0.884 0.0936 -0.621
B 34765 15.59% 44.58 74.98% -0.956 -0.0688 -0.427
C 34784 13.72% 43.86 75.6% -1.009 -0.3068 -0.512
D 25373 15.49% 41.65 72.94% -0.959 -0.0439 -0.654
E 16130 16.05% 44.34 71.08% -1.129 -0.3587 -0.543
F 20905 17.39% 44.92 72.34% -0.815 0.0355 -0.63
G 19054 18.38% 43.57 70.38% -1.011 -0.2049 -0.809
H 19235 15.52% 44.99 72.44% -0.907 -0.0856 -0.564
East 14723 15.52% 49.86 67.29% -1.184 -0.3483 -0.545
Northeast 9073 14.98% 50.99 66.73% -0.921 -0.1403 -0.649
Northwest 7105 14.99% 51.59 68.57% -0.967 -0.1007 -0.493
Southeast 3975 8.69% 48.94 68.33% -0.468 0.3795 -0.593
Southwest 3693 11.21% 46.06 65.91% -1.191 0.0939 -1.241
West 12658 15.61% 49.52 68.15% -0.607 0.3667 -0.56

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1172 0.0% 32.92 81.06% 0.122 0.8151 -0.439
Not Using Events or Tokens 14338 16.22% 36.96 65.36% -0.678 -0.2933 -0.14
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9760 5.41% 58.76 83.47% 0.983 0.3051 0.712
Start of Game Growth 13837 5.9% 56.86 81.42% 0.436 -0.0746 -0.484
Unlimited Undo 12149 13.5% 47.54 79.75% -0.41 -0.4942 0.442
Using Tokens but Not Events 21241 10.83% 45.12 81.83% 0.117 0.1105 0.412

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 55455 13.6 45.26%
II 63607 30.16 85.49%
III 21284 34.82 93.03%
IV 4491 38.65 99.98%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.341 Win Model: 1.131
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 94264 21.53% 42.9 69.9%
2 23366 11.98% 41.96 75.12%
3 11861 17.34% 44.22 71.62%
4 12532 9.21% 53.27 80.36%
5 215 11.63% 37.77 55.35%
6 2598 2.85% 47.02 62.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25074
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19714
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 54259
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4441
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 8771
Lose: Invader deck ran out 434
Lose: Adversary condition 5098
Win: Sacrifice victory 276
Lose: Scenario condition 21748
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4848
Lose: Spirit destroyed 174

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-22 02:53:19 (Pacific Time)