Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 651 10.29% 33.57 -2.741 78.65% -0.384 0.1673
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 384 13.98% 34.37 -2.152 67.97% -0.854 0.0242
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 708 13.71% 43.91 1.302 74.58% -0.698 0.4214
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 660 19.3% 44.75 5.788 68.48% -0.435 1.0958
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 371 25.07% 48.39 1.982 62.8% -1.172 0.4149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 136 26.47% 41.54 -0.653 38.24% -1.533 0.0296
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1764 29.54% 49.73 1.799 44.84% -2.365 -0.1049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1953 8.31% 30.84 -5.901 86.84% -0.185 0.0594
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1530 10.38% 34.96 1.18 81.96% 0.842 0.7154
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2432 10.27% 45.24 3.66 87.29% 0.37 0.4857
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2683 10.87% 52.09 5.128 89.94% 0.304 0.6787
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2059 12.85% 54.28 5.787 89.56% 0.188 0.6543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1140 19.54% 60.75 11.255 87.89% 0.929 1.9148
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3292 38.09% 56.56 4.922 69.96% -1.356 0.2194
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1893 9.99% 31.12 -5.114 86.58% -0.583 -0.0669
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1239 11.71% 38.36 -0.55 79.66% -0.127 0.4818
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1965 14.49% 39.13 -0.859 74.45% -1.049 0.0785
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1936 21.01% 41.93 1.865 61.16% -1.843 -0.0994
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5271 9.49% 54.99 6.429 83.0% -0.048 1.5306
The Kingdom of England 5 9 983 20.1% 53.13 7.147 60.33% -1.01 0.7277
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14159 23.42% 55.86 6.428 55.82% -1.891 0.4078
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1304 11.75% 34.62 -6.802 84.36% -1.397 -0.4944
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 794 25.25% 34.79 -1.096 73.8% 0.503 1.3933
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1244 19.61% 41.65 -0.249 68.33% -1.432 0.9706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1203 21.75% 50.68 4.02 73.48% -0.811 1.5733
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1001 17.72% 53.6 6.581 70.23% -0.889 1.5862
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1688 31.75% 63.21 10.016 84.24% 0.045 2.1225
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7299 28.54% 63.0 9.762 69.82% -0.84 1.5268
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 41 4.88% 33.56 -5.966 87.8% -0.053 -0.1773
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 30 6.67% 36.0 -3.514 76.67% -0.725 0.1194
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 38 15.79% 38.47 -1.486 76.32% -0.354 0.4741
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 43 18.6% 44.42 0.802 65.12% -0.987 -0.1166
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 139 17.99% 51.42 5.238 82.73% -0.286 0.9496
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 57 40.35% 54.58 5.987 71.93% -0.661 0.7699
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 278 39.93% 46.6 1.996 35.25% -2.428 -0.729
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1749 8.31% 30.17 -5.999 83.3% -0.599 -0.4323
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1130 13.31% 32.96 -2.597 78.76% 0.248 0.0248
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1505 17.77% 34.24 -3.322 72.23% -0.816 -0.3626
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1580 24.21% 43.46 0.925 77.85% -0.352 -0.0419
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 919 24.07% 44.05 1.752 71.71% -0.346 0.6065
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 635 25.28% 49.63 5.378 74.49% 0.201 1.1821
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5131 22.7% 54.96 6.536 76.85% -0.489 0.7031
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 507 11.24% 31.12 -4.916 85.8% -0.328 -0.3841
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 340 22.12% 37.56 -2.026 80.29% -0.546 0.2285
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 508 25.79% 43.31 0.414 83.07% -0.395 0.3161
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 666 33.93% 47.8 1.507 77.93% -0.631 0.7072
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 424 28.77% 53.55 3.64 79.01% -0.452 0.933
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 326 34.66% 58.77 11.922 69.02% 0.236 2.1737
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1576 46.79% 56.57 4.738 49.11% -2.109 -0.0898

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 51349 21.88 44.11 74.46% 0.497 1.5137 -0.229
1 Thematic 7182 22.14 45.49 69.58% -0.049 1.1233 -0.468
2 Archipelago 53 20.75 37.45 58.49% -0.913 0.0704 -0.138
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7439 8.0 42.04 83.06% 0.311 1.062 0.115
2 Coastline 1517 23.79 40.6 65.59% 0.344 0.9469 -1.156
2 Fragment 280 17.69 39.84 72.14% -0.468 -0.0206 0.081
2 Heart 130 19.23 44.25 85.38% 0.538 1.0762 -0.818
2 Opposite Shores 4435 15.7 42.07 78.87% 0.197 1.1894 -0.432
2 Thematic 2227 12.33 53.3 70.23% 0.118 0.8169 0.049
2 Top to Top 188 11.73 43.1 75.0% 0.657 1.1671 -0.02
3 Archipelago 24 45.83 59.17 75.0% -0.225 -0.0516 -0.459
3 Coastline 33 6.25 46.82 87.88% -0.18 -0.9631 1.445
3 Other 252 10.71 39.0 80.16% -1.253 -1.2885 -0.038
3 Round (Default) 7035 17.29 45.79 74.07% -0.12 0.4747 -0.118
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 1.04
3 Thematic 313 18.59 45.2 75.72% 0.096 0.0587 0.059
4 Archipelago 26 30.77 44.62 53.85% 0.046 -0.6655 -1.831
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% -0.874 -0.7578 0.287
4 Leaf 30 16.67 40.4 60.0% 0.086 0.6485 -1.085
4 Other 255 15.29 54.12 93.33% 0.093 -0.1613 0.911
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2553 6.55 66.64 87.78% -0.477 0.0518 0.536
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6722 9.32 51.93 81.85% -0.001 -0.0281 0.342
5 Archipelago 3 33.33 43.33 66.67%
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.147 -0.4173 0.368
5 Other 137 24.82 51.31 81.75% 0.637 0.8056 0.169
5 Thematic 78 6.41 75.31 93.59% -0.453 -0.7298 1.615
6 Archipelago 7 0.0 51.71 57.14% -0.284
6 Other 72 0.0 50.19 72.22% -0.387 0.4228 -0.372
6 Star 58 6.9 35.03 65.52% -0.777 0.0065 -0.268
6 Thematic 191 2.09 62.63 82.72% -0.089 -0.3673 0.554
6 Two Centers (Default) 271 2.58 55.9 77.12% 0.157 0.0627 -0.5
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 0.152 -0.4253 0.006
7 Other 1 0.0 30.0 0.0% 0.224 -0.9277 -0.439

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1313 41.82 56.89% -0.535 1.3676 -0.66
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1089 44.2 58.95% -0.324 1.4062 -0.56
All Things Weaken 847 41.43 57.73% -0.24 1.7451 -0.771
Back Against the Wall 1084 42.04 55.81% -0.72 1.0968 -0.683
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1162 38.13 53.87% -0.795 1.2558 -1.049
Downward Spiral 2352 39.5 59.91% -0.762 1.2314 -0.608
Erosion of Will 1182 39.74 52.88% -1.413 0.6703 -0.843
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 478 45.62 69.67% -0.506 -0.0653 -0.378
Memory Fades to Dust 2243 38.53 57.82% -0.779 1.3049 -0.756
Power Corrodes the Spirit 825 43.04 60.61% -1.019 0.9194 -0.567
Promising Farmlands 1130 37.4 48.23% -1.094 0.9523 -1.024
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 339 46.73 77.58% 0.744 1.1685 -0.058
Thriving Communities 809 37.01 45.74% -1.601 0.3827 -1.117
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.079
Unnatural Proliferation 860 40.73 54.19% -0.977 0.9879 -0.836
Untended Land Crumbles 844 41.75 61.26% -0.942 1.0517 -0.627

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 23126 16.4% 46.11 76.82% -0.78 0.017 -0.106
B 22613 15.95% 46.09 78.61% -0.432 0.3117 0.079
C 22519 13.69% 45.48 80.12% -0.617 -0.0487 0.039
D 16808 15.52% 43.39 77.41% -0.861 -0.0653 -0.089
E 9217 17.67% 47.45 75.74% -0.657 -0.0101 -0.015
F 13805 18.0% 47.13 75.86% -0.799 -0.0751 -0.119
G 12807 18.68% 44.91 72.82% -0.886 -0.1544 -0.3
H 12365 16.03% 46.16 75.86% -0.56 0.1528 -0.031
East 8647 14.42% 54.35 76.33% -1.225 -0.4558 0.295
Northeast 5291 13.98% 55.93 76.0% -0.467 0.3925 0.087
Northwest 4515 13.99% 57.11 77.23% -0.67 0.4066 0.129
Southeast 1770 7.69% 55.86 83.95% -0.845 -0.1384 0.048
Southwest 1703 10.13% 52.7 80.86% -0.742 0.3834 -0.551
West 7931 14.13% 54.29 76.33% -0.282 0.6719 0.135

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 896 0.0% 34.87 85.16% -0.469 1.6605 -0.271
Not Using Events or Tokens 8717 16.79% 40.09 70.46% -0.148 0.0266 -0.184
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6476 5.41% 60.75 89.3% 0.341 0.1989 1.504
Start of Game Growth 9400 5.66% 58.4 86.59% 0.75 -0.0104 -1.043
Unlimited Undo 8772 12.99% 50.63 86.06% 0.445 -0.1588 0.886
Using Tokens but Not Events 13456 11.81% 45.99 88.21% 0.404 0.2478 0.604

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 32422 22.56 51.9%
II 42806 30.98 86.11%
III 14604 34.53 93.03%
IV 3099 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.306 Win Model: 0.836
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 58869 21.94% 44.3 73.86%
2 16093 12.38% 43.39 78.23%
3 7632 17.1% 45.69 74.69%
4 9686 8.74% 56.02 83.69%
5 51 23.53% 51.12 74.51%
6 599 2.5% 55.35 76.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 16815
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13531
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 36790
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3063
Lose: Invader deck ran out 302
Lose: Adversary condition 3621
Win: Sacrifice victory 174
Lose: Scenario condition 15208
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3316
Lose: Spirit destroyed 111

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)