Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 709 10.16% 33.7 -5.042 78.7% -0.594 -0.3908
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 443 12.79% 34.48 -4.005 67.95% -1.05 -0.6109
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 788 13.97% 43.89 -0.287 74.11% -0.603 0.0924
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 751 18.95% 45.39 0.988 67.91% -1.002 0.0578
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 428 25.23% 49.12 5.131 62.38% -0.801 0.3529
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 149 31.54% 42.28 -5.444 38.93% -1.337 0.2351
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2146 31.41% 48.85 2.57 42.73% -1.335 0.5916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2082 8.62% 30.75 -5.606 86.22% -0.362 -0.2938
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1823 11.08% 37.7 -2.897 83.43% 0.136 0.031
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2654 10.58% 45.43 2.717 86.62% 0.24 0.1661
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2950 10.91% 52.32 5.084 88.88% -0.187 0.0921
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2305 12.77% 54.45 6.32 89.15% 0.14 0.167
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1325 19.15% 60.86 7.621 87.62% -0.309 0.1412
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3706 38.05% 56.42 5.339 69.43% -0.856 0.4209
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2027 9.98% 30.88 -7.775 85.4% -0.799 -0.657
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1413 11.61% 38.46 -1.659 79.69% -0.56 -0.3382
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2118 14.63% 39.15 -1.341 74.17% -0.596 0.1491
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2120 20.99% 41.82 -0.097 60.9% -1.028 0.1467
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5724 9.23% 55.06 4.498 82.97% -0.82 0.1895
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1123 19.73% 53.56 5.98 60.37% -1.071 0.4846
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15728 23.18% 55.92 5.229 55.65% -1.286 0.6942
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1368 11.86% 34.61 -3.536 83.85% -0.304 0.0327
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 926 24.57% 34.96 -4.333 74.84% -0.637 0.3157
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1333 19.58% 41.44 -5.141 67.82% -1.414 -0.2968
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1368 22.27% 50.41 4.563 72.51% -0.631 0.7742
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1097 18.36% 53.01 2.636 68.82% -0.85 0.5443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1887 32.17% 63.2 10.512 83.84% -0.109 0.8649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8455 28.86% 62.77 9.181 68.89% -0.751 0.6324
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 92 10.87% 33.15 -4.288 83.7% -0.3 -0.4128
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 81 11.11% 32.93 -5.507 64.2% -1.147 -0.6876
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 128 14.84% 37.39 -2.799 63.28% -0.824 -0.4306
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 195 18.46% 44.46 1.518 63.08% -0.789 -0.4577
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 289 20.42% 50.8 3.814 78.2% -0.607 -0.0458
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 542 36.35% 51.98 4.568 68.08% -0.577 0.1665
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1207 41.59% 46.84 1.399 39.44% -1.727 -0.4599
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1856 8.43% 30.21 -5.837 83.08% -0.361 -0.2393
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1313 12.68% 33.86 0.219 79.59% 0.075 0.0485
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1667 17.79% 34.31 -4.011 71.45% -1.071 -0.8365
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1738 23.73% 43.18 -1.857 77.1% -0.826 -0.5035
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1016 24.63% 44.03 -1.278 71.06% -1.126 -0.5339
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 707 26.53% 49.37 2.673 73.69% -0.648 0.3871
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6397 23.75% 54.45 4.416 74.38% -0.561 0.2295
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 571 11.21% 30.99 -7.356 84.76% -0.456 -0.4421
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 404 21.34% 37.18 -4.02 78.22% -0.835 -0.2131
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 561 25.49% 42.67 -2.765 81.82% -0.541 -0.2211
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 750 35.07% 47.67 2.038 76.93% -0.551 0.5092
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 520 25.77% 53.35 3.982 78.27% -0.587 0.4331
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 394 34.52% 58.47 0.506 67.77% -1.4 0.0243
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1957 47.34% 54.98 -0.757 47.42% -1.849 0.1019

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 57964 22.39 44.19 73.81% 0.777 1.0255 -0.327
1 Thematic 8718 23.03 46.13 67.63% 0.504 1.1605 -0.552
2 Archipelago 85 23.53 42.99 57.65% 0.112 0.5965 -0.757
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8340 7.97 42.29 82.83% 0.683 0.8679 0.054
2 Coastline 1696 24.48 40.15 64.15% -0.248 -0.1875 -1.294
2 Fragment 290 17.07 39.6 72.41% -0.006 -0.0964 0.101
2 Heart 151 18.54 41.92 81.46% -0.525 -0.7485 -0.691
2 Opposite Shores 4988 15.08 42.61 78.55% 0.507 0.6832 -0.557
2 Thematic 2430 12.12 53.45 69.79% 0.359 0.9686 0.093
2 Top to Top 203 12.37 42.67 74.88% -0.387 -0.3053 -0.084
3 Archipelago 40 32.5 56.4 77.5% -0.299 -1.2515 -0.722
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.349 -0.0179 1.512
3 Other 277 10.11 37.18 75.45% -1.879 -1.9953 0.011
3 Round (Default) 7929 17.56 46.03 74.08% -0.026 -0.0251 -0.211
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.983
3 Thematic 368 17.44 46.67 77.72% 0.306 0.2633 0.357
4 Archipelago 37 27.03 47.27 59.46% 0.999 1.0206 -0.965
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.314
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.113
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.211 0.3108 1.01
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2678 7.66 65.72 86.18% -0.008 0.0138 0.596
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7276 9.4 51.77 81.8% 0.002 -0.1843 0.31
5 Archipelago 7 14.29 50.43 71.43% 0.633 -0.5418 0.184
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.281
5 Other 172 22.67 48.34 79.07% 0.153 -0.3145 0.23
5 Thematic 79 6.33 75.05 93.67% 0.242 -0.2295 1.932
6 Archipelago 42 7.14 60.6 76.19% 0.268 -0.137 -0.482
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 114 0.88 54.32 75.44% -1.048 -1.5321 -0.536
6 Star 75 6.67 36.91 66.67% -0.35 0.0464 -0.441
6 Thematic 409 3.42 58.27 73.59% -0.983 -0.5342 0.083
6 Two Centers (Default) 419 3.1 47.67 72.08% -1.703 -1.5528 -0.946
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 1.018 0.4732 0.451
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.454

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1483 42.22 57.32% -0.113 0.1841 -0.604
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1244 43.85 57.72% -0.087 0.0148 -0.599
All Things Weaken 1028 41.77 56.61% -0.306 0.1905 -0.749
Attenuated Essence 26 46.54 65.38% -0.174 0.1553 -0.413
Back Against the Wall 1210 42.53 55.95% 0.439 0.6687 -0.608
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 32.19 38.1% -0.797 -0.2698 -0.815
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 38.11 50.0% -0.505 -0.1395 -0.16
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1326 38.31 53.17% -0.463 0.1207 -1.016
Downward Spiral 2650 39.65 59.55% -0.354 0.0281 -0.611
Erosion of Will 1334 39.81 53.0% -0.102 0.3911 -0.822
Intensifying Exploitation 23 33.04 47.83% -0.713 -0.243 -0.999
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 563 45.98 68.92% -0.513 -0.9828 -0.329
Memory Fades to Dust 2521 38.96 57.32% -0.708 -0.197 -0.717
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1010 43.38 60.3% -0.438 -0.0942 -0.539
Promising Farmlands 1286 37.4 46.97% -1.068 -0.4305 -1.047
Shattered Fragments of Power 25 47.4 72.0% 0.522 0.7936 -0.226
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 40.96 48.0% -0.321 0.2753 -0.75
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 396 47.08 77.02% -0.027 -0.7133 0.013
The Border of Life and Death 8 34.13 50.0% -0.285 -0.3363 -0.232
Thriving Communities 975 38.09 46.36% -0.26 0.2889 -1.043
Thriving Crops 14 27.21 42.86% -0.632 -0.4192 -1.123
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.048
Unnatural Proliferation 1017 40.41 52.21% -0.835 -0.4819 -0.903
Untended Land Crumbles 1024 42.3 59.38% -0.385 0.0171 -0.648

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25670 16.57% 46.05 76.36% -0.393 0.4636 -0.217
B 25629 16.06% 46.16 78.18% -0.125 0.6544 -0.053
C 25386 14.0% 45.48 79.33% -0.422 0.2337 -0.094
D 18786 15.87% 43.42 76.99% -0.331 0.4773 -0.174
E 10760 17.43% 47.06 74.91% -0.388 0.2464 -0.127
F 15514 18.23% 46.92 75.27% -0.363 0.3617 -0.223
G 14307 19.03% 44.86 72.45% -0.401 0.3504 -0.386
H 13978 16.02% 46.31 75.63% -0.382 0.2839 -0.104
East 10027 14.85% 54.12 74.52% -0.677 -0.046 -0.024
Northeast 6091 14.17% 55.79 74.54% -0.535 0.3372 0.019
Northwest 5212 15.04% 56.23 75.02% -0.499 0.1299 -0.028
Southeast 2271 8.78% 55.08 80.1% -0.091 0.5858 -0.059
Southwest 2191 12.04% 51.67 76.08% -0.508 0.6692 -0.673
West 9200 15.53% 53.53 73.97% -0.268 0.6869 -0.101

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 950 0.0% 34.82 84.32% -1.14 -0.2083 -0.362
Not Using Events or Tokens 9781 17.0% 40.57 70.34% -0.065 0.2463 -0.079
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7239 5.41% 60.66 87.82% 0.676 0.1515 1.233
Start of Game Growth 10450 5.8% 58.39 85.34% -0.099 -0.4528 -0.998
Unlimited Undo 9603 13.36% 49.93 84.52% -0.567 -0.601 0.688
Using Tokens but Not Events 14881 11.95% 46.29 87.72% 0.492 0.4283 0.658

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37304 21.2 50.58%
II 48109 31.05 85.95%
III 16354 34.73 92.97%
IV 3427 38.01 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.045 Win Model: 0.633
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 67111 22.49% 44.45 72.98%
2 17949 12.2% 43.64 77.93%
3 8605 17.3% 45.86 74.6%
4 10376 9.12% 55.58 83.17%
5 91 19.78% 46.08 71.43%
6 1061 3.3% 52.25 72.86%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18851
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15135
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41273
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3389
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 654
Lose: Invader deck ran out 345
Lose: Adversary condition 4175
Win: Sacrifice victory 203
Lose: Scenario condition 17207
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3830
Lose: Spirit destroyed 132

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-26 03:47:51 (Pacific Time)