Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 403 9.68% 32.01 -5.125 78.66% -0.913 -0.6296
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 240 14.77% 33.73 -4.243 67.92% -1.448 -1.0535
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 447 13.36% 44.18 1.137 79.42% -0.942 -0.0808
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 432 14.79% 44.57 1.081 71.06% -1.427 -0.1765
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 217 26.73% 47.36 2.412 61.75% -1.817 -0.2823
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 101 25.74% 41.91 -0.49 40.59% -2.78 -0.7114
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1041 31.7% 46.44 2.546 43.42% -2.575 -0.4975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2079 8.0% 30.78 -5.37 87.16% -0.218 -0.1748
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1267 11.16% 33.1 -3.951 80.19% -0.639 -0.6647
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2376 9.69% 44.2 1.275 87.46% -0.198 -0.1975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2501 11.83% 51.29 5.019 89.28% -0.095 0.1984
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1848 11.27% 53.9 6.238 89.07% -0.093 0.2773
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1028 19.77% 59.83 8.818 85.8% -0.402 0.4357
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3511 40.47% 54.48 7.203 68.39% -1.291 -0.0428
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2029 8.95% 30.49 -5.533 86.25% -0.297 0.0337
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1093 12.59% 37.68 -1.66 78.77% -0.695 -0.2057
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2030 14.81% 38.59 -1.389 74.48% -1.098 -0.1332
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1933 20.49% 40.45 -0.57 59.34% -1.895 -0.3151
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4492 10.43% 53.16 4.931 79.45% -1.196 0.3186
The Kingdom of England 5 9 940 20.65% 51.92 3.844 57.98% -2.175 -0.1039
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11997 23.62% 54.03 6.285 53.24% -2.177 0.0805
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1554 11.47% 34.61 -3.55 86.29% -0.394 0.1317
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 762 27.65% 33.63 -3.846 70.08% -1.172 -0.2839
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1329 19.67% 41.0 -0.169 68.85% -1.365 0.7627
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1414 19.63% 50.22 4.461 73.27% -1.205 0.9799
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1109 19.42% 54.17 6.167 71.96% -1.311 0.8395
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1233 30.25% 62.99 10.114 82.89% -0.5 1.3258
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6487 28.36% 61.75 10.198 69.18% -1.454 0.6742
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1858 7.99% 30.05 -5.755 83.91% -0.51 -0.4221
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1090 13.54% 32.33 -4.376 77.71% -0.749 -0.7379
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1595 16.05% 33.6 -3.845 72.54% -1.08 -0.8606
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1619 22.82% 43.51 1.284 79.31% -0.735 -0.4521
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 996 24.42% 43.63 1.1 70.28% -1.247 -0.4767
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 706 24.14% 48.09 3.168 71.1% -1.168 -0.0007
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5051 20.62% 53.68 5.856 77.25% -1.077 0.0549
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 281 9.96% 29.93 -6.213 90.39% 0.011 -0.1118
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 163 20.86% 36.32 -2.781 82.21% -0.609 0.1062
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 271 22.51% 43.08 0.397 88.19% -0.189 0.2489
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 381 32.81% 48.53 3.293 80.84% -0.746 0.5128
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 240 30.83% 51.78 4.527 77.08% -1.03 0.1099
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 202 41.58% 54.57 6.344 62.87% -1.746 0.3144
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 721 53.75% 52.53 5.28 46.46% -2.565 -0.629

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 46296 21.51 43.35 -0.395 74.49% -0.755 -0.3958
1 Thematic 7028 23.33 45.53 1.034 69.59% -0.83 -0.3268
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7854 8.48 40.68 -0.709 82.58% -0.444 -0.2478
2 Coastline 1307 23.75 41.05 -1.735 66.56% -0.835 -0.6924
2 Fragment 262 10.73 38.64 -2.295 74.05% -0.701 -0.2787
2 Heart 143 16.08 42.58 -0.1 86.71% -0.404 -0.1117
2 Opposite Shores 3868 15.84 42.26 -0.852 78.7% -0.473 -0.248
2 Thematic 2403 14.94 47.47 0.268 65.5% -0.422 -0.3776
2 Top to Top 181 16.57 41.82 -1.057 73.48% -0.666 -0.5317
3 Coastline 38 8.11 49.61 1.12 84.21% -0.245 -0.2782
3 Other 180 9.44 40.91 -1.528 73.89% -0.655 -0.2398
3 Round (Default) 6408 15.39 43.57 -0.661 73.14% -0.351 -0.312
3 Sunrise 52 11.54 62.1 4.979 84.62% 0.193 -0.0304
3 Thematic 392 13.78 43.86 -2.018 72.7% 0.232 -0.1252
4 Coastline 27 7.41 35.3 -5.058 33.33% -0.749 -0.5909
4 Leaf 22 18.18 41.32 -1.548 68.18% -0.001 0.0269
4 Other 218 11.93 51.84 3.443 92.2% 1.076 1.1897
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 5.912 100.0% 0.305 -0.4831
4 Snake 1 0.0 54.0 3.551 100.0% 0.075 0.199
4 Thematic 2509 8.58 64.11 3.496 84.26% 2.004 0.9175
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6095 9.45 49.73 1.307 79.75% 0.228 0.2106
5 Other 45 26.67 48.71 2.298 95.56% 0.704 0.4859
5 Thematic 32 3.13 78.19 11.753 96.88% 2.659 -0.169

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1319 41.15 -2.557 57.54% -0.642 1.4286
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1066 44.06 -1.357 60.32% -0.512 1.4063
All Things Weaken 481 38.68 -3.409 56.76% -0.814 1.3403
Back Against the Wall 1055 42.53 -1.961 58.39% -0.584 1.5126
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1126 37.27 -4.457 54.8% -0.817 1.4067
Downward Spiral 2572 40.13 -2.39 62.01% -0.574 1.4431
Erosion of Will 1159 39.81 -3.273 54.53% -0.786 1.4235
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 261 44.14 -0.736 70.5% -0.19 0.5146
Memory Fades to Dust 2495 38.22 -3.254 57.8% -0.781 1.4338
Power Corrodes the Spirit 426 42.24 -1.803 64.55% -0.375 1.6451
Promising Farmlands 1184 36.57 -4.737 49.83% -1.024 1.1889
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 44.19 -0.627 77.16% 0.136 0.5713
Thriving Communities 443 36.62 -4.677 48.31% -1.129 0.969
Tipping Point 683 39.47 -3.515 56.08% -0.706 1.5123
Unnatural Proliferation 449 39.23 -3.096 55.23% -0.825 1.2529
Untended Land Crumbles 441 41.29 -2.167 64.17% -0.429 1.6701

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 23646 16.17% 44.96 0.324 76.55% 1.426 0.336
B 22738 15.78% 44.09 -0.168 77.51% 1.256 0.0704
C 23360 14.12% 43.76 -0.195 78.1% 1.325 -0.0897
D 18760 15.0% 41.92 -0.993 77.02% 1.238 0.0614
E 4845 18.18% 46.76 0.614 76.08% 1.329 0.0518
F 9147 17.08% 46.96 0.744 76.45% 1.382 0.1389
G 8545 18.22% 44.54 -0.355 72.93% 1.173 -0.0574
H 8356 15.84% 45.0 -0.063 74.58% 1.219 -0.0209
East 5589 14.4% 55.04 2.275 76.02% 1.139 0.1879
Northeast 5389 15.46% 53.56 1.729 73.24% 0.942 0.052
Northwest 4787 16.04% 54.33 1.859 74.39% 1.117 0.1517
Southeast 910 9.41% 52.6 1.859 84.73% 1.481 0.4791
Southwest 875 11.89% 47.57 -1.553 78.86% 0.671 0.0629
West 5502 13.5% 54.91 2.244 75.75% 1.09 0.4044

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 872 0.0% 34.18 -5.075 83.83% -0.675 1.3694
Not Using Events or Tokens 8548 18.07% 39.72 -1.344 69.55% -0.263 -0.0439
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4547 5.12% 56.17 4.071 90.1% 1.22 0.5159
Start of Game Growth 7067 5.38% 55.08 2.921 86.97% 0.018 -0.4364
Unlimited Undo 7409 14.56% 49.23 1.578 84.65% 0.467 0.0548
Using Tokens but Not Events 11874 13.84% 42.63 -0.797 85.44% 0.414 0.3669

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 29900 22.34 50.66%
II 39093 30.75 86.17%
III 13491 34.26 93.01%
IV 2879 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.34 Win Model: -1.524
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 53449 21.75% 43.66 73.9%
2 15940 12.61% 42.04 77.45%
3 7061 15.13% 43.67 73.28%
4 8912 9.25% 53.86 81.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 10760
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9251
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24472
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2089
Lose: Invader deck ran out 349
Lose: Adversary condition 3225
Win: Sacrifice victory 170
Lose: Scenario condition 14478
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2952
Lose: Spirit destroyed 101

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)