Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 682 10.12% 33.87 -4.68 79.33% -0.241 0.2667
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 413 13.48% 34.69 -1.929 69.25% -0.16 0.2437
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 752 13.57% 44.08 0.569 74.47% -0.996 0.1815
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 687 19.41% 45.3 2.256 69.0% -0.801 0.6244
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 391 24.81% 48.78 1.17 62.66% -1.586 -0.0057
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 143 30.07% 42.8 6.844 39.86% -0.438 1.4985
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2030 32.02% 48.88 -0.475 42.41% -2.714 -0.4428
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2026 8.45% 30.83 -4.232 86.62% 0.187 0.1396
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1699 10.53% 37.05 3.032 83.17% 1.013 0.7808
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2551 10.42% 45.35 0.284 86.95% -0.407 -0.2173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2802 11.01% 52.28 4.276 89.58% -0.482 -0.1157
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2163 12.7% 54.43 5.621 89.51% -0.196 0.1622
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1246 19.16% 61.06 9.799 88.04% -0.063 1.104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3524 38.25% 56.62 6.99 69.69% -0.885 0.5618
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1961 9.85% 31.1 -6.639 86.13% -0.75 -0.193
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1317 11.47% 38.53 -0.982 80.03% -0.157 0.5207
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2034 14.69% 39.2 -0.75 74.53% -0.408 0.7459
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2020 21.14% 42.06 0.221 61.39% -1.093 0.5842
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5537 9.33% 55.1 5.08 83.19% -0.344 1.1229
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1070 19.87% 53.47 1.354 60.19% -2.585 -0.5418
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14973 23.44% 56.03 5.84 55.79% -2.025 0.5387
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1331 11.89% 34.74 -2.399 84.52% 0.219 0.8919
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 855 24.5% 35.17 -1.643 75.09% 0.189 1.2616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1294 19.47% 41.68 -1.048 68.32% -0.979 1.1362
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1272 22.3% 50.49 5.402 72.72% -0.529 1.6016
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1043 18.16% 53.42 3.189 69.8% -1.126 1.2193
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1797 31.83% 63.33 9.134 84.08% -0.406 1.659
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7935 28.62% 63.03 8.764 69.38% -1.408 0.7668
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 68 10.29% 33.15 -5.634 85.29% 0.056 -0.0376
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 51 7.84% 35.84 -3.041 72.55% -0.543 0.3477
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 78 11.54% 39.95 -3.126 78.21% -0.998 0.2039
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 108 16.67% 46.52 -0.011 70.37% -1.186 -0.3273
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 231 19.48% 51.33 4.776 80.95% -0.27 0.948
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 254 42.13% 55.86 4.904 72.44% -0.901 0.3373
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 799 42.05% 47.75 2.094 38.3% -2.174 -0.6165
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1806 8.38% 30.26 -4.109 83.33% 0.409 0.5795
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1220 13.06% 33.15 -4.136 79.34% -0.052 0.1678
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1572 17.46% 34.38 -2.334 72.58% 0.085 0.3648
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1668 24.19% 43.43 -0.137 77.64% -0.741 -0.2895
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 957 24.05% 44.34 2.16 72.31% 0.016 1.016
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 668 25.53% 49.55 3.601 74.4% -0.308 0.7333
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5869 23.46% 54.79 5.334 75.11% -0.721 0.4379
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 536 11.38% 31.25 -4.082 85.82% 0.328 -0.1243
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 372 21.29% 37.41 -4.499 79.84% -0.79 0.013
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 522 25.48% 43.42 1.783 83.52% 0.471 0.9076
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 704 34.52% 47.86 2.342 77.7% -0.752 0.4869
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 470 27.23% 53.68 0.842 78.72% -1.671 -0.5276
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 357 33.89% 60.12 10.804 70.03% -0.771 1.364
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1811 48.01% 56.07 4.036 48.15% -2.17 -0.1989

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 55271 22.33 44.3 74.04% 0.056 0.7192 -0.379
1 Thematic 7690 22.46 46.0 69.31% -0.421 0.6358 -0.593
2 Archipelago 76 19.74 43.67 60.53% -0.857 -0.386 -0.548
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7862 7.99 42.26 83.11% -0.137 0.381 0.037
2 Coastline 1642 24.8 40.45 64.43% -0.582 -0.3812 -1.284
2 Fragment 285 17.38 39.76 72.63% 0.692 0.9904 0.017
2 Heart 141 18.44 43.36 82.98% -1.491 -1.0303 -0.741
2 Opposite Shores 4730 15.4 42.5 78.94% -0.135 0.4034 -0.537
2 Thematic 2298 12.21 53.52 70.41% 0.651 1.4336 0.003
2 Top to Top 196 12.3 42.88 75.0% 0.26 0.3882 -0.123
3 Archipelago 33 33.33 57.73 81.82% 0.45 0.2312 -0.386
3 Coastline 33 6.25 46.82 87.88% 0.191 -0.3161 1.438
3 Other 257 10.51 39.61 80.16% -0.003 -0.6672 -0.078
3 Round (Default) 7436 17.21 46.07 74.44% 0.188 0.4928 -0.168
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.997
3 Thematic 350 17.77 46.96 78.29% 0.537 0.7445 0.285
4 Archipelago 33 24.24 45.73 57.58% -0.537 -0.5745 -1.705
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.138 0.1009 0.355
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% 0.161 0.0594 -1.085
4 Other 256 15.63 54.18 93.36% 0.837 0.1228 0.971
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2591 6.72 66.36 87.3% -1.208 -1.1047 0.477
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7004 9.39 51.95 82.01% 0.09 0.1674 0.324
5 Archipelago 3 33.33 43.33 66.67% 0.148 0.0503 0.124
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.349
5 Other 154 24.03 50.25 80.52% 0.351 -0.1657 0.233
5 Thematic 78 6.41 75.31 93.59% 1.677
6 Archipelago 24 0.0 58.46 75.0% -0.667 -0.8138 -0.225
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 92 1.09 52.61 75.0% 0.59 0.6352 -0.377
6 Star 69 7.25 36.7 65.22% -1.182 -0.4112 -0.399
6 Thematic 303 3.63 63.42 80.86% 0.258 0.499 0.313
6 Two Centers (Default) 346 3.47 52.59 76.3% -0.187 0.0039 -0.453
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 0.151 0.2997 0.017
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% 0.426 -0.058 -0.374

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1425 42.17 57.26% -0.284 1.6867 -0.629
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1174 43.95 58.09% -0.537 1.241 -0.585
All Things Weaken 943 41.65 57.16% -0.504 1.545 -0.745
Back Against the Wall 1159 42.23 55.57% -0.688 1.2516 -0.649
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1262 38.35 53.49% -0.467 1.6614 -1.031
Downward Spiral 2519 39.61 59.63% -0.376 1.5854 -0.619
Erosion of Will 1273 39.8 52.87% -0.392 1.6892 -0.853
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 533 45.94 69.79% 0.062 0.5642 -0.32
Memory Fades to Dust 2405 38.9 57.59% -0.478 1.6632 -0.731
Power Corrodes the Spirit 938 43.66 60.77% 0.203 2.1838 -0.516
Promising Farmlands 1225 37.53 47.59% -0.567 1.4542 -1.026
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 373 46.85 77.48% 0.397 0.8933 0.025
Thriving Communities 902 37.5 45.45% -1.065 0.9944 -1.133
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.074
Unnatural Proliferation 961 40.54 52.86% -0.926 1.0315 -0.89
Untended Land Crumbles 947 41.92 59.56% -0.307 1.7266 -0.674

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 24496 16.53% 46.18 76.61% -0.331 0.4051 -0.156
B 24263 16.1% 46.28 78.45% -0.051 0.6465 0.008
C 23980 13.91% 45.64 79.91% -0.269 0.2011 -0.013
D 17847 15.74% 43.51 77.32% -0.187 0.5221 -0.128
E 10052 17.61% 47.52 75.53% -0.207 0.337 -0.075
F 14745 18.32% 47.2 75.67% -0.184 0.478 -0.155
G 13610 19.07% 45.03 72.69% -0.121 0.5097 -0.33
H 13213 16.07% 46.4 75.99% 0.055 0.7199 -0.058
East 9165 14.35% 54.68 76.29% -0.116 0.546 0.173
Northeast 5630 13.81% 56.4 76.13% -0.156 0.5039 0.115
Northwest 4780 14.37% 57.11 76.99% -0.109 0.5019 0.054
Southeast 1971 7.87% 56.23 83.16% 0.249 0.7803 0.05
Southwest 1934 11.2% 52.84 78.9% -0.453 0.5152 -0.699
West 8407 14.68% 54.21 75.76% -0.21 0.596 0.077

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 925 0.0% 34.92 84.97% 0.391 2.6198 -0.291
Not Using Events or Tokens 9304 16.98% 40.47 70.52% -0.099 0.1272 -0.162
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6843 5.35% 61.08 89.1% 1.384 0.4037 1.494
Start of Game Growth 9907 5.68% 58.72 86.44% -0.193 -0.6501 -1.069
Unlimited Undo 9132 13.03% 50.43 85.98% 0.426 -0.125 0.848
Using Tokens but Not Events 14138 11.9% 46.28 88.24% 0.931 1.086 0.639

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 34887 22.65 51.55%
II 45638 31.08 86.02%
III 15558 34.66 92.91%
IV 3281 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.132 Win Model: 0.041
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 63343 22.36% 44.52 73.46%
2 17031 12.37% 43.62 78.2%
3 8072 16.99% 45.98 75.1%
4 10012 8.86% 55.89 83.63%
5 68 22.06% 48.75 73.53%
6 837 3.47% 55.35 76.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 17968
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14390
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 39185
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3243
Lose: Invader deck ran out 334
Lose: Adversary condition 3964
Win: Sacrifice victory 192
Lose: Scenario condition 16331
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3634
Lose: Spirit destroyed 123

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)