Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 453 10.6% 31.99 -5.228 78.37% -0.948 -0.6699
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 280 14.86% 33.46 -4.377 67.14% -1.504 -1.1097
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 498 13.46% 43.86 0.958 78.51% -1.001 -0.1227
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 485 16.91% 44.57 1.069 71.55% -1.377 -0.1254
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 264 24.62% 47.79 2.264 62.88% -1.814 -0.2929
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 113 27.43% 42.58 -0.19 42.48% -2.677 -0.6995
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1209 30.02% 47.77 2.533 45.33% -2.626 -0.576
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2246 7.95% 30.8 -5.437 87.49% -0.196 -0.1551
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1394 11.23% 33.1 -3.98 80.42% -0.617 -0.6459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2573 9.64% 44.09 1.195 87.56% -0.196 -0.1912
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2719 11.48% 51.38 4.966 89.44% -0.099 0.19
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2026 11.48% 53.92 6.208 89.19% -0.094 0.2734
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1125 19.84% 59.83 8.744 85.96% -0.388 0.4412
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3745 40.06% 54.58 7.156 68.62% -1.296 -0.0549
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2189 8.89% 30.53 -5.571 86.43% -0.285 0.0474
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1215 12.15% 37.59 -1.709 78.77% -0.7 -0.1957
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2193 14.6% 38.68 -1.365 74.74% -1.082 -0.114
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2074 20.51% 40.63 -0.552 59.93% -1.882 -0.304
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4892 10.17% 53.44 4.955 80.01% -1.188 0.3095
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1027 21.93% 51.29 3.532 56.57% -2.195 -0.1278
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13188 23.45% 54.36 6.34 53.69% -2.166 0.0891
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1651 11.34% 34.54 -3.646 86.25% -0.405 0.1102
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 832 26.55% 33.78 -3.843 70.67% -1.165 -0.2689
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1410 19.43% 41.08 -0.169 69.15% -1.356 0.7808
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1489 20.36% 50.33 4.44 73.67% -1.188 0.9969
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1162 19.6% 54.19 6.119 72.03% -1.31 0.837
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1400 31.07% 62.98 10.088 83.14% -0.444 1.3757
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7147 28.69% 61.91 10.172 69.61% -1.446 0.6607
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1988 7.92% 30.1 -5.781 84.51% -0.466 -0.3817
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1165 13.88% 32.29 -4.414 77.77% -0.748 -0.7267
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1698 16.44% 33.46 -3.942 72.32% -1.096 -0.8639
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1724 22.47% 43.53 1.245 79.47% -0.736 -0.4499
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1061 24.65% 43.87 1.16 71.07% -1.218 -0.4413
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 738 24.32% 47.94 3.059 70.73% -1.19 -0.0329
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5332 20.87% 53.73 5.74 77.34% -1.079 0.0523
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 341 9.38% 29.97 -6.353 90.03% -0.062 -0.1683
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 190 20.53% 36.52 -2.754 83.16% -0.583 0.1596
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 319 23.51% 43.11 0.275 88.09% -0.21 0.2213
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 472 32.63% 48.37 3.223 80.51% -0.798 0.4515
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 286 32.87% 51.89 4.526 77.62% -0.989 0.1374
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 215 40.47% 55.04 6.565 63.72% -1.701 0.3179
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 929 48.92% 55.69 6.036 51.24% -2.489 -0.5842

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 50223 21.58 43.39 -0.408 74.52% -0.809 -0.4763
1 Thematic 7614 23.19 45.34 0.873 69.62% -1.032 -0.5343
2 Archipelago 1 0.0 31.0 -1.038 100.0% 0.108 0.0478
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8390 8.53 40.91 -0.677 82.75% -0.412 -0.2116
2 Coastline 1412 23.19 40.77 -1.909 66.43% -0.856 -0.7014
2 Fragment 281 12.14 38.6 -2.327 74.38% -0.681 -0.2852
2 Heart 151 16.56 42.48 -0.257 85.43% -0.457 -0.1351
2 Opposite Shores 4172 15.96 42.0 -1.016 79.03% -0.441 -0.2123
2 Thematic 2579 14.58 48.1 0.371 65.84% -0.655 -0.5934
2 Top to Top 207 16.0 41.77 -1.153 73.43% -0.674 -0.5416
3 Coastline 38 8.11 49.61 0.986 84.21% -0.168 -0.2064
3 Other 193 9.84 40.9 -1.53 75.13% -0.523 -0.1031
3 Round (Default) 7028 15.91 44.14 -0.513 73.53% -0.217 -0.1609
3 Sunrise 52 11.54 62.1 4.97 84.62% 0.294 0.1
3 Thematic 411 14.36 43.83 -2.238 72.75% -0.111 -0.4406
4 Coastline 27 7.41 35.3 -5.246 33.33% -0.61 -0.4848
4 Leaf 23 17.39 42.48 -1.104 69.57% 0.233 0.2792
4 Other 235 13.19 52.21 3.349 92.34% 1.249 1.3614
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 5.744 100.0% 0.334 -0.4484
4 Snake 1 0.0 54.0 3.438 100.0% 0.089 0.2435
4 Thematic 2944 7.69 65.64 3.572 85.73% 1.679 0.6554
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6783 9.5 49.95 1.263 79.94% 0.43 0.465
5 Other 50 30.0 48.8 2.252 92.0% 0.665 0.41
5 Thematic 51 3.92 79.92 10.966 98.04% 2.526 -0.4169

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1408 41.33 -2.477 57.88% -0.621 1.4525
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1139 43.83 -1.471 59.53% -0.533 1.3857
All Things Weaken 561 39.4 -3.152 57.04% -0.773 1.3853
Back Against the Wall 1126 42.63 -1.909 58.97% -0.555 1.5386
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1207 37.5 -4.359 54.93% -0.798 1.4266
Downward Spiral 2769 40.18 -2.401 61.94% -0.581 1.44
Erosion of Will 1244 40.05 -3.187 54.74% -0.763 1.4453
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 316 44.92 -0.49 71.84% -0.152 0.5404
Memory Fades to Dust 2653 38.35 -3.209 58.12% -0.771 1.4473
Power Corrodes the Spirit 522 43.09 -1.614 64.37% -0.367 1.6539
Promising Farmlands 1262 36.63 -4.722 49.6% -1.028 1.1869
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 233 44.97 -0.308 77.25% 0.149 0.5601
Thriving Communities 521 36.75 -4.715 47.98% -1.149 0.9447
Tipping Point 683 39.47 -3.508 56.08% -0.703 1.5228
Unnatural Proliferation 540 40.0 -2.82 55.74% -0.796 1.2935
Untended Land Crumbles 538 41.23 -2.281 63.38% -0.476 1.6301

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 25408 16.24% 45.01 0.248 76.66% 1.408 0.2958
B 24623 15.9% 44.49 -0.046 77.89% 1.26 0.0524
C 25124 14.1% 44.01 -0.154 78.38% 1.325 -0.114
D 20017 15.17% 42.14 -0.977 77.09% 1.23 0.0283
E 5767 18.24% 46.86 0.554 75.88% 1.303 -0.0092
F 10287 17.46% 46.81 0.615 76.3% 1.366 0.1001
G 9631 18.39% 44.55 -0.434 72.72% 1.145 -0.1123
H 9290 16.09% 45.09 -0.069 74.9% 1.221 -0.0446
East 6212 13.6% 56.4 2.397 77.38% 1.286 0.3047
Northeast 5915 14.87% 54.48 1.82 74.27% 1.089 0.1581
Northwest 5239 15.24% 55.44 2.003 75.43% 1.272 0.2726
Southeast 1161 8.07% 54.93 1.912 85.79% 1.545 0.519
Southwest 1137 10.39% 51.05 -0.882 81.44% 0.882 0.2623
West 6141 12.85% 56.26 2.375 76.91% 1.23 0.505

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 951 0.0% 34.64 -4.942 84.12% -0.658 1.3965
Not Using Events or Tokens 9308 17.89% 39.74 -1.338 69.69% -0.252 -0.0338
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5249 5.07% 57.58 4.216 90.06% 1.22 0.5264
Start of Game Growth 8101 5.31% 56.11 3.052 87.21% 0.012 -0.4506
Unlimited Undo 8323 14.23% 50.0 1.652 85.15% 0.478 0.0573
Using Tokens but Not Events 13159 13.55% 43.55 -0.518 86.06% 0.459 0.4062

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 32441 22.34 51.0%
II 42670 30.81 86.21%
III 14615 34.31 93.01%
IV 3142 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.376 Win Model: -1.568
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 57971 21.79% 43.68 73.93%
2 17111 12.62% 42.16 77.63%
3 7713 15.63% 44.18 73.65%
4 10072 9.05% 54.68 81.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12158
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10292
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 27572
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2352
Lose: Invader deck ran out 373
Lose: Adversary condition 3515
Win: Sacrifice victory 177
Lose: Scenario condition 15618
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3181
Lose: Spirit destroyed 114

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)