Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 378 8.99% 32.12 -5.029 78.57% -0.91 -0.6291
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 223 15.0% 33.72 -4.223 67.26% -1.467 -1.0944
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 426 13.32% 44.43 1.335 80.28% -0.874 -0.0265
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 409 14.39% 44.29 1.024 70.17% -1.46 -0.2227
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 196 26.02% 47.03 2.251 61.22% -1.881 -0.359
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 83 27.71% 42.59 -0.068 42.17% -2.667 -0.639
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 984 31.5% 46.41 2.687 43.5% -2.543 -0.4505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2026 7.96% 30.81 -5.326 87.17% -0.22 -0.1725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1218 11.19% 33.16 -3.887 80.21% -0.629 -0.657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2277 9.71% 44.18 1.316 87.4% -0.197 -0.1995
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2384 11.74% 51.32 5.088 89.3% -0.083 0.201
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1753 11.32% 53.86 6.277 88.99% -0.092 0.2859
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 986 20.0% 59.72 8.855 85.5% -0.414 0.4199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3432 40.59% 54.35 7.216 68.07% -1.294 -0.0446
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1937 8.91% 30.43 -5.519 86.06% -0.31 0.0222
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1049 12.55% 37.67 -1.632 78.65% -0.694 -0.2107
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1932 14.63% 38.5 -1.386 74.12% -1.107 -0.1501
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1845 20.66% 40.63 -0.376 59.62% -1.864 -0.2869
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4290 10.43% 53.15 5.002 79.42% -1.188 0.3341
The Kingdom of England 5 9 906 20.98% 51.92 3.958 57.95% -2.158 -0.0943
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11507 23.81% 53.56 6.123 52.23% -2.198 0.0576
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1518 11.15% 34.58 -3.534 86.03% -0.42 0.1044
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 743 28.09% 33.5 -3.859 69.72% -1.181 -0.2898
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1306 19.4% 40.97 -0.143 68.68% -1.372 0.7566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1354 19.1% 50.41 4.598 73.63% -1.184 1.0026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1079 19.31% 54.25 6.259 72.1% -1.3 0.8451
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1181 29.72% 63.17 10.197 83.15% -0.489 1.3295
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6191 28.1% 61.51 10.126 68.58% -1.467 0.6684
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1773 8.03% 29.94 -5.773 83.7% -0.527 -0.4412
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1054 13.62% 32.4 -4.309 77.89% -0.735 -0.7252
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1535 15.76% 33.55 -3.822 72.31% -1.087 -0.8704
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1585 22.68% 43.51 1.335 79.18% -0.732 -0.4474
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 962 24.04% 43.63 1.126 70.06% -1.258 -0.4812
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 691 23.94% 48.07 3.192 70.91% -1.178 -0.0126
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 4920 20.72% 53.53 5.857 76.85% -1.092 0.0404
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 257 8.95% 29.82 -6.255 89.49% -0.094 -0.2115
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 143 18.88% 36.17 -2.951 81.82% -0.678 0.0103
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 248 22.58% 43.25 0.473 88.71% -0.153 0.2827
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 325 32.62% 49.07 3.545 82.15% -0.638 0.6364
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 217 32.72% 51.02 4.451 76.04% -1.042 0.1157
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 193 42.49% 54.34 6.21 62.18% -1.801 0.2353
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 679 54.87% 52.29 5.233 46.1% -2.577 -0.628

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 44455 21.5 43.18 -0.426 74.13% -0.759 -0.4041
1 Thematic 6794 23.25 45.64 1.102 69.46% -0.885 -0.3874
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7597 8.34 40.57 -0.687 82.73% -0.401 -0.2112
2 Coastline 1281 23.46 41.07 -1.693 66.35% -0.812 -0.6772
2 Fragment 256 10.59 38.68 -2.235 73.44% -0.682 -0.2564
2 Heart 142 15.49 42.78 0.036 86.62% -0.368 -0.0779
2 Opposite Shores 3765 16.03 42.26 -0.809 78.51% -0.438 -0.2114
2 Thematic 2343 15.15 47.43 0.276 65.22% -0.519 -0.4746
2 Top to Top 180 16.67 41.59 -1.1 73.33% -0.643 -0.527
3 Coastline 37 8.33 49.62 1.089 83.78% -0.221 -0.2588
3 Other 177 9.04 40.86 -1.511 73.45% -0.619 -0.2173
3 Round (Default) 6096 15.01 43.38 -0.667 73.2% -0.291 -0.2598
3 Sunrise 52 11.54 62.1 5.026 84.62% 0.243 -0.0098
3 Thematic 388 13.66 43.71 -2.091 72.42% 0.09 -0.2488
4 Coastline 27 7.41 35.3 -4.983 33.33% -0.663 -0.5402
4 Leaf 22 18.18 41.32 -1.477 68.18% 0.075 0.1547
4 Other 210 12.38 51.84 3.499 91.9% 1.134 1.2144
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 5.934 100.0% 0.322 -0.4697
4 Snake 1 0.0 54.0 3.689 100.0% 0.085 0.2104
4 Thematic 2380 8.71 64.07 3.522 84.24% 1.856 0.7777
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5785 9.45 49.65 1.332 79.69% 0.319 0.2861
5 Other 40 22.5 46.17 1.635 95.0% 0.748 0.5307
5 Thematic 25 4.0 78.12 12.354 96.0% 2.388 -0.3788

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1268 41.12 -2.538 56.94% -0.651 1.4173
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1027 43.92 -1.369 59.59% -0.522 1.3941
All Things Weaken 449 38.35 -3.505 56.35% -0.837 1.3231
Back Against the Wall 1022 42.54 -1.914 58.32% -0.575 1.5174
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1088 37.13 -4.476 54.32% -0.821 1.4005
Downward Spiral 2504 40.02 -2.392 61.74% -0.573 1.4411
Erosion of Will 1125 39.66 -3.291 54.22% -0.787 1.4248
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 230 43.6 -0.863 69.57% -0.2 0.5122
Memory Fades to Dust 2413 38.14 -3.265 57.19% -0.794 1.4218
Power Corrodes the Spirit 393 41.6 -2.072 62.85% -0.44 1.5795
Promising Farmlands 1141 36.52 -4.731 49.52% -1.028 1.1863
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 188 44.17 -0.557 77.66% 0.17 0.5866
Thriving Communities 402 36.01 -4.899 47.51% -1.142 0.9653
Tipping Point 683 39.47 -3.456 56.08% -0.694 1.5219
Unnatural Proliferation 398 38.32 -3.394 53.77% -0.865 1.2156
Untended Land Crumbles 398 41.24 -2.08 64.32% -0.409 1.6864

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 22899 16.14% 44.85 0.347 76.37% 1.384 0.3113
B 21846 15.59% 43.82 -0.238 77.33% 1.205 0.0402
C 22513 14.07% 43.66 -0.17 78.02% 1.287 -0.1093
D 18119 14.87% 41.83 -0.977 76.94% 1.195 0.0368
E 4438 18.26% 46.56 0.562 75.71% 1.264 0.0071
F 8650 17.06% 46.86 0.782 76.44% 1.351 0.1251
G 8091 18.13% 44.37 -0.361 72.55% 1.127 -0.0855
H 7929 15.95% 44.84 -0.064 74.3% 1.173 -0.0485
East 5396 14.53% 54.9 2.296 75.78% 1.159 0.2226
Northeast 5211 15.67% 53.46 1.717 72.92% 0.95 0.0809
Northwest 4626 16.21% 54.21 1.846 74.23% 1.129 0.1839
Southeast 828 9.87% 52.21 1.857 84.78% 1.509 0.5257
Southwest 803 11.96% 47.3 -1.498 79.08% 0.728 0.1029
West 5309 13.6% 54.73 2.245 75.53% 1.109 0.4433

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 863 0.0% 34.31 -4.893 83.78% -0.647 1.3921
Not Using Events or Tokens 8242 18.2% 39.85 -1.262 69.3% -0.252 -0.0322
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4390 5.12% 56.03 4.108 90.27% 1.238 0.5324
Start of Game Growth 6811 5.38% 54.98 2.989 87.08% 0.038 -0.4211
Unlimited Undo 6968 14.3% 48.56 1.254 84.1% 0.389 -0.0135
Using Tokens but Not Events 11473 13.68% 42.36 -0.853 85.26% 0.407 0.361

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28879 22.34 50.38%
II 37428 30.71 86.01%
III 12969 34.23 93.01%
IV 2779 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.341 Win Model: -1.463
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 51370 21.73% 43.53 73.57%
2 15488 12.63% 41.98 77.38%
3 6742 14.76% 43.5 73.3%
4 8454 9.27% 53.77 81.13%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 10164
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8767
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22979
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1992
Lose: Invader deck ran out 338
Lose: Adversary condition 3121
Win: Sacrifice victory 162
Lose: Scenario condition 14051
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2871
Lose: Spirit destroyed 94

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)