Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 863 9.27% 33.25 -3.316 76.83% -0.247 0.1361
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 557 11.78% 32.99 -2.07 63.73% -0.621 -0.3737
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 916 13.54% 42.59 1.115 71.18% -0.854 0.0445
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 901 18.59% 44.41 -4.078 66.15% -1.448 -0.4978
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 569 26.01% 49.13 3.703 60.81% -1.008 0.4393
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 206 31.55% 40.61 2.227 36.89% -0.724 0.8517
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2790 30.04% 48.59 2.295 44.27% -1.897 0.1399
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2372 8.46% 29.77 -4.41 82.72% -0.384 -0.1466
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2276 10.31% 35.74 -3.676 79.79% -0.607 -0.5199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3318 10.58% 45.59 5.3 85.17% 0.49 0.6306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3777 12.34% 50.17 5.961 82.76% 0.327 0.5133
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2695 13.22% 53.62 6.56 86.68% 0.001 0.3549
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1786 16.67% 59.75 7.719 86.0% -0.083 0.3845
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4588 36.26% 55.05 4.959 68.64% -0.627 0.7137
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2540 10.31% 31.4 -1.71 83.5% 0.034 0.4079
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1743 11.31% 36.86 -0.038 76.13% -0.202 0.1364
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2540 13.76% 38.51 1.042 73.03% -0.12 0.5434
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2499 20.42% 40.72 -0.694 59.14% -1.048 0.0782
The Kingdom of England 4 7 6723 8.91% 53.23 0.361 80.11% -1.052 0.1777
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1408 19.07% 51.89 1.992 58.17% -1.207 0.4043
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18439 22.37% 54.53 4.592 54.65% -1.541 0.4743
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1520 12.06% 33.73 -1.346 81.18% -0.083 0.3648
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1142 23.33% 33.68 -3.049 71.98% -0.579 0.1227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1582 18.26% 40.22 -1.008 65.61% -0.934 0.0692
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1542 21.65% 49.96 2.98 71.73% -0.78 0.4971
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1269 18.47% 52.43 10.743 67.53% 0.269 1.6728
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2421 32.76% 63.13 11.817 83.19% 0.04 0.983
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10007 27.85% 61.7 8.543 67.74% -0.873 0.5623
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 194 11.34% 28.28 -6.619 70.1% -0.521 -0.2868
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 203 11.33% 29.28 -5.173 56.16% -1.149 -0.6691
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 289 17.65% 32.92 -2.561 57.09% -0.867 -0.305
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 389 18.56% 41.17 0.492 58.35% -0.868 -0.4564
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 486 21.81% 48.11 1.383 73.25% -0.731 -0.0504
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1380 28.33% 50.63 7.233 66.38% -0.626 -0.0967
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2194 40.95% 45.89 5.205 40.84% -1.341 -0.2768
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2127 8.48% 29.06 -4.509 79.17% -0.472 -0.2404
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1739 11.24% 35.03 2.267 75.91% 0.087 0.1501
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2020 18.44% 33.26 -3.728 68.81% -0.932 -0.7847
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2019 23.26% 41.78 -1.421 73.8% -0.698 -0.3343
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1203 24.71% 42.66 -0.138 67.83% -1.019 -0.3778
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 805 28.04% 47.4 -5.489 69.44% -1.233 -0.2637
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8078 23.55% 53.82 8.328 73.46% -0.106 0.9488
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 693 10.82% 30.39 -2.582 80.81% -0.386 -0.2817
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 530 21.02% 35.17 -1.584 73.4% -0.193 0.6921
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 718 24.79% 40.81 -1.244 78.27% -0.532 -0.0249
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 877 34.44% 46.55 4.633 74.69% -0.116 0.952
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 703 26.46% 51.97 4.465 73.97% -0.64 0.2937
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 568 32.75% 55.2 7.053 64.61% -0.526 0.8842
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2641 45.15% 49.72 -3.263 42.82% -2.468 -0.7321

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 71086 21.92 43.36 72.26% 0.048 0.3078 -0.381
1 Thematic 11508 22.78 44.69 64.31% -0.147 0.3184 -0.636
2 Archipelago 107 23.36 39.2 52.34% -0.413 0.0608 -0.892
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9750 8.18 40.7 79.5% -0.584 -0.3985 -0.077
2 Coastline 1947 23.97 38.83 63.17% 0.108 0.0919 -1.308
2 Fragment 312 16.88 38.51 71.79% 0.646 0.3292 0.031
2 Heart 188 18.09 38.74 77.66% 0.575 0.4812 -0.837
2 Opposite Shores 5891 14.69 42.27 77.93% 0.501 0.462 -0.552
2 Thematic 2897 12.0 51.26 67.07% 0.044 0.3307 0.245
2 Top to Top 253 12.7 40.53 73.52% 0.296 0.2519 0.037
3 Archipelago 55 32.73 58.89 80.0% -0.238 -1.3779 -0.09
3 Coastline 38 8.11 42.11 78.95% 0.398 -0.3514 1.154
3 Other 412 7.77 26.91 54.85% 0.634 0.1712 -0.136
3 Round (Default) 9521 17.43 45.44 73.01% -0.074 -0.2935 -0.237
3 Sunrise 54 11.11 60.72 85.19% 0.91
3 Thematic 475 15.82 44.2 72.84% 0.086 -0.2061 0.487
4 Archipelago 56 19.64 46.02 64.29% 0.209 0.4023 -0.924
4 Coastline 6 0.0 62.0 83.33% 0.466
4 Leaf 32 18.75 40.0 59.38% -1.122
4 Other 266 15.04 54.13 93.23% -0.34 -0.5963 1.213
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2834 8.62 64.22 84.51% -0.671 -0.4186 0.722
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8293 9.26 50.68 80.56% -0.062 0.1526 0.333
5 Archipelago 10 20.0 57.4 80.0% 0.177 0.4502 0.256
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.211
5 Other 206 19.42 44.31 73.3% -0.748 -1.3137 0.43
5 Thematic 92 5.43 69.68 84.78% 0.152 -0.2685 1.685
6 Archipelago 176 3.41 63.68 76.14% -0.033 -0.9657 -1.112
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 173 0.58 54.54 76.3% 0.125 0.551 -0.596
6 Star 112 5.36 35.87 63.39% 0.383 0.4962 -0.314
6 Thematic 810 2.47 48.11 59.88% -0.13 -0.029 0.035
6 Two Centers (Default) 598 2.68 40.03 61.04% -1.238 -1.4954 -1.615
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 49.33 33.33% 0.533
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% 0.319 -0.6966 -0.232

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1682 42.31 58.09% 0.537 0.7121 -0.487
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1413 43.96 58.46% 0.004 -0.0506 -0.502
All Things Weaken 1243 41.34 55.51% -0.663 -0.3693 -0.673
Attenuated Essence 196 40.65 57.65% -0.288 -0.204 -0.579
Back Against the Wall 1388 42.65 55.98% -0.568 -0.521 -0.542
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 137 37.2 48.18% 0.103 0.3066 -0.864
Burn Brightest Before the End 124 37.46 44.35% -0.928 -0.74 -0.666
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1543 38.03 52.3% -0.038 0.3706 -0.909
Downward Spiral 3086 39.1 59.14% 0.007 0.135 -0.508
Erosion of Will 1531 39.76 53.3% -0.29 -0.007 -0.766
Intensifying Exploitation 160 38.36 52.5% 0.012 0.26 -0.729
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 680 45.26 69.26% 0.856 0.3407 -0.259
Memory Fades to Dust 2946 38.64 57.09% 0.079 0.316 -0.614
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1184 43.06 59.71% 0.346 0.5638 -0.478
Promising Farmlands 1475 37.15 46.92% -0.497 -0.2025 -0.997
Shattered Fragments of Power 131 41.43 50.38% -0.595 -0.3935 -0.814
Slow Dissolution of Will 151 35.62 41.72% -0.467 -0.0825 -1.002
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 477 47.76 77.57% 0.748 0.1668 0.15
The Border of Life and Death 53 39.43 67.92% 0.363 -0.1545 0.014
Thriving Communities 1149 38.07 46.91% -0.069 0.2699 -0.922
Thriving Crops 84 35.05 48.81% -0.591 -0.6335 -0.847
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.003
Unnatural Proliferation 1194 40.41 51.68% -0.422 -0.2813 -0.77
Untended Land Crumbles 1204 41.68 57.72% -0.248 0.2009 -0.604

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 30348 16.26% 45.08 75.07% -0.133 0.7293 -0.432
B 30758 15.83% 45.09 76.07% -0.257 0.5602 -0.269
C 30624 13.9% 44.33 76.8% -0.536 0.1429 -0.332
D 22514 15.66% 42.29 74.57% -0.335 0.4694 -0.448
E 14001 16.34% 45.31 72.52% -0.242 0.4263 -0.369
F 18388 17.92% 45.76 73.6% -0.201 0.5979 -0.411
G 17023 18.8% 43.96 71.14% -0.483 0.3433 -0.609
H 16928 15.73% 45.38 73.57% -0.365 0.4082 -0.365
East 12813 15.34% 51.06 69.75% -0.58 0.2662 -0.31
Northeast 7813 14.55% 52.32 69.27% -0.219 0.5517 -0.398
Northwest 6284 15.15% 53.12 70.91% -0.195 0.6121 -0.293
Southeast 3232 8.52% 50.3 71.94% -0.614 0.2556 -0.333
Southwest 3058 11.37% 47.43 68.54% -0.424 0.8575 -0.988
West 11263 15.63% 50.77 70.02% -0.476 0.5197 -0.411

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1061 0.0% 34.24 83.69% -0.624 0.1718 -0.239
Not Using Events or Tokens 12641 16.25% 38.08 67.26% -0.413 -0.0256 -0.171
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8778 5.27% 59.62 85.27% 0.83 0.2151 0.9
Start of Game Growth 12476 5.78% 57.53 83.03% 0.371 -0.2106 -0.641
Unlimited Undo 10962 12.71% 48.75 82.42% 0.284 0.3279 0.608
Using Tokens but Not Events 17989 11.41% 45.52 84.32% 0.419 0.3612 0.529

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 47638 15.74 46.95%
II 57264 30.48 85.64%
III 19260 34.79 93.1%
IV 4047 38.41 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.082 Win Model: 0.335
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 83256 22.05% 43.51 71.07%
2 20962 12.1% 42.48 75.9%
3 10429 16.9% 44.77 72.61%
4 11562 9.21% 54.23 81.79%
5 152 13.16% 34.34 53.29%
6 1847 2.71% 47.44 64.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 22341
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17853
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 48939
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4002
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5193
Lose: Invader deck ran out 398
Lose: Adversary condition 4727
Win: Sacrifice victory 249
Lose: Scenario condition 19871
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4483
Lose: Spirit destroyed 153

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)