Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 724 10.36% 33.55 -4.525 78.31% -0.55 -0.3066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 450 12.58% 34.15 -4.716 67.11% -1.238 -0.8295
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 799 14.03% 43.74 -0.055 73.59% -0.706 0.0523
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 773 18.67% 45.47 2.324 67.79% -0.902 0.1439
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 435 24.83% 49.29 7.107 62.3% -0.678 0.6465
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 156 30.77% 42.53 1.557 39.74% -1.244 0.471
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2215 30.88% 48.93 3.518 43.12% -1.347 0.701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2099 8.64% 30.71 -5.364 85.95% -0.595 -0.4836
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1846 11.0% 37.58 -3.153 83.21% -0.12 -0.2039
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2684 10.57% 45.39 2.455 86.48% 0.063 0.0462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3126 11.7% 51.63 1.195 86.44% -0.397 -0.1613
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2340 12.88% 54.32 6.195 88.85% 0.042 0.1263
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1368 18.91% 60.86 8.876 87.65% -0.16 0.3338
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3761 37.89% 56.38 5.498 69.4% -0.867 0.4401
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2040 9.92% 30.87 -6.142 85.29% -0.539 -0.298
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1434 11.59% 38.4 -1.633 79.57% -0.646 -0.4734
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2148 14.75% 39.12 -0.87 74.12% -0.55 0.1837
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2154 21.08% 41.78 -0.404 60.91% -1.075 0.054
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5787 9.22% 55.05 5.421 82.94% -0.72 0.279
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1129 19.71% 53.53 5.357 60.32% -1.184 0.4433
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16042 23.12% 55.69 3.599 55.41% -1.44 0.62
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1378 11.77% 34.47 -5.705 83.53% -0.678 -0.2806
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 940 24.2% 34.9 -3.749 74.68% -0.559 0.4256
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1357 19.45% 41.01 -4.766 67.06% -1.48 -0.3711
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1392 22.1% 50.41 5.557 72.49% -0.549 0.807
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1116 18.31% 52.75 1.575 68.37% -1.163 0.2727
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1904 31.99% 63.21 11.681 83.88% 0.146 1.0042
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8568 28.86% 62.65 9.286 68.76% -0.728 0.5934
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 99 11.11% 32.45 -4.888 81.82% -0.456 -0.4998
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 88 11.36% 32.52 -4.906 63.64% -0.969 -0.5501
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 138 15.22% 36.88 -2.561 63.77% -0.74 -0.3689
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 214 18.22% 43.5 1.271 62.15% -0.8 -0.4168
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 305 21.64% 50.16 3.028 77.05% -0.749 -0.1415
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 663 34.54% 49.78 3.615 64.4% -0.78 -0.0276
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1293 41.38% 46.52 1.73 39.21% -1.748 -0.4706
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1884 8.41% 29.91 -6.702 82.22% -0.622 -0.4616
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1338 12.59% 33.94 0.569 79.37% -0.226 -0.2057
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1681 18.12% 34.3 -2.78 71.33% -0.887 -0.6626
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1770 23.76% 43.02 -2.238 76.44% -1.114 -0.7007
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1035 24.66% 43.92 -0.834 70.72% -1.1 -0.5108
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 718 27.25% 49.14 0.756 73.12% -0.913 0.0036
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6540 23.81% 54.31 5.056 74.24% -0.418 0.4211
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 581 11.19% 30.89 -7.245 84.34% -0.435 -0.3224
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 409 21.32% 36.98 -4.471 77.75% -0.961 -0.4117
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 580 24.83% 42.46 -1.718 81.38% -0.451 -0.1059
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 763 34.99% 47.55 0.861 76.67% -0.869 0.2727
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 543 24.86% 53.09 3.014 77.72% -0.882 0.1237
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 402 34.08% 58.44 2.204 67.91% -1.18 0.2619
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1983 47.28% 54.58 -4.825 46.95% -2.455 -0.523

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 58849 22.38 44.12 73.67% 0.615 0.7845 -0.363
1 Thematic 9046 22.98 45.9 66.77% 0.327 0.9171 -0.605
2 Archipelago 86 23.26 43.49 58.14% 0.1 0.4765 -0.741
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8459 7.98 42.26 82.75% 0.573 0.6857 0.027
2 Coastline 1723 24.39 40.07 64.02% -0.24 -0.2744 -1.333
2 Fragment 292 16.96 39.56 72.6% 0.253 0.1365 0.05
2 Heart 152 19.08 42.08 81.58% -0.352 -0.6997 -0.564
2 Opposite Shores 5091 15.23 42.62 78.16% 0.135 0.2043 -0.636
2 Thematic 2466 12.03 53.43 69.67% 0.498 1.0914 0.131
2 Top to Top 204 12.31 42.78 75.0% -0.143 -0.1946 -0.124
3 Archipelago 44 34.09 58.36 79.55% 0.396 -1.0253 -0.418
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.425 -0.0481 1.456
3 Other 340 9.12 30.54 61.47% -2.336 -2.0647 -0.003
3 Round (Default) 8066 17.42 46.0 74.04% -0.111 -0.2688 -0.272
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.888
3 Thematic 377 17.02 46.46 76.66% -0.145 -0.1124 0.316
4 Archipelago 39 28.21 48.56 61.54% 1.164 0.51 -0.833
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.777 0.953 0.531
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.126
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.257 0.161 1.044
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2703 7.85 65.44 85.72% -0.096 -0.2551 0.562
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7338 9.37 51.6 81.56% -0.168 -0.4057 0.252
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 56.5 75.0% 0.415 -0.6355 0.156
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.051 -0.2451 0.25
5 Other 174 22.41 48.45 79.31% 0.365 -0.1955 0.304
5 Thematic 81 6.17 73.2 91.36% -0.095 -0.2136 1.902
6 Archipelago 45 6.67 58.89 73.33% -0.156 0.0249 -0.736
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 125 0.8 54.68 76.0% -0.929 -1.3269 -0.572
6 Star 77 6.49 37.29 67.53% -0.229 -0.1964 -0.472
6 Thematic 445 3.6 56.07 70.79% -0.535 -0.1244 0.133
6 Two Centers (Default) 430 3.02 46.87 70.93% -2.235 -2.2721 -1.044
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 1.052 0.4511 0.479
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.444

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1499 42.18 57.17% -0.123 0.0672 -0.593
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1257 43.88 58.0% 0.587 0.5234 -0.576
All Things Weaken 1043 41.62 56.38% -0.326 0.0604 -0.733
Attenuated Essence 41 39.68 48.78% -0.585 -0.4791 -0.97
Back Against the Wall 1224 42.6 56.21% 0.753 0.816 -0.596
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 28 33.96 39.29% -0.627 -0.3441 -0.713
Burn Brightest Before the End 30 35.3 40.0% -0.667 -0.4756 -0.595
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1340 38.23 53.06% -0.479 -0.0472 -1.007
Downward Spiral 2711 39.58 59.46% -0.107 0.1536 -0.581
Erosion of Will 1346 39.69 52.82% -0.391 -0.0618 -0.828
Intensifying Exploitation 31 35.77 51.61% -0.315 -0.0166 -0.798
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 567 46.02 68.96% -0.214 -0.7121 -0.306
Memory Fades to Dust 2557 38.94 57.25% -0.456 -0.0622 -0.67
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1023 43.37 60.22% -0.23 0.0155 -0.512
Promising Farmlands 1300 37.35 47.0% -0.48 0.0073 -1.036
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 46.78 66.67% 0.577 0.6543 -0.271
Slow Dissolution of Will 31 39.87 48.39% -0.237 0.1973 -0.755
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 400 47.08 76.75% -0.465 -1.0971 0.0
The Border of Life and Death 11 38.18 54.55% -0.035 -0.3958 -0.158
Thriving Communities 996 37.99 45.98% -0.328 0.0499 -1.022
Thriving Crops 22 30.77 45.45% -0.406 -0.4624 -0.706
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.041
Unnatural Proliferation 1039 40.49 52.36% -0.232 -0.0317 -0.859
Untended Land Crumbles 1034 42.23 59.19% -0.335 -0.0658 -0.629

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25997 16.57% 45.99 76.29% -0.286 0.5764 -0.264
B 26114 16.0% 45.97 77.82% -0.252 0.5756 -0.098
C 25854 13.98% 45.31 78.93% -0.371 0.3177 -0.15
D 19047 15.89% 43.32 76.75% -0.489 0.3391 -0.252
E 11068 17.22% 46.62 74.18% -0.565 0.0929 -0.202
F 15717 18.22% 46.81 75.12% -0.414 0.3381 -0.28
G 14485 19.0% 44.78 72.34% -0.436 0.3345 -0.438
H 14186 16.03% 46.23 75.46% -0.406 0.2836 -0.16
East 10387 15.03% 53.61 73.45% -0.743 -0.0961 -0.091
Northeast 6354 14.37% 55.02 73.12% -0.768 0.0655 -0.151
Northwest 5299 14.98% 55.87 74.43% -0.553 0.2395 -0.066
Southeast 2361 8.82% 54.62 78.99% -0.149 0.6153 -0.109
Southwest 2265 12.0% 51.05 74.92% -0.701 0.3839 -0.798
West 9359 15.47% 53.25 73.43% -0.264 0.6915 -0.183

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 952 0.0% 34.83 84.35% -1.211 -0.3854 -0.28
Not Using Events or Tokens 10111 17.12% 40.45 69.89% -0.18 0.1568 -0.154
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7358 5.38% 60.6 87.51% 1.071 0.464 1.238
Start of Game Growth 10609 5.77% 58.33 85.09% -0.1 -0.3776 -0.975
Unlimited Undo 9709 13.24% 49.93 84.39% -0.519 -0.5187 0.711
Using Tokens but Not Events 15243 11.92% 46.09 86.93% 0.376 0.3063 0.606

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 38164 20.73 50.03%
II 48863 31.02 85.9%
III 16564 34.75 92.98%
IV 3481 38.04 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.093 Win Model: 0.665
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 68343 22.48% 44.36 72.73%
2 18231 12.22% 43.6 77.75%
3 8814 17.07% 45.55 74.01%
4 10464 9.15% 55.4 82.89%
5 108 17.59% 41.09 62.96%
6 1111 3.33% 51.8 72.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19076
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15330
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41891
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3443
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1076
Lose: Invader deck ran out 350
Lose: Adversary condition 4222
Win: Sacrifice victory 207
Lose: Scenario condition 17461
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3884
Lose: Spirit destroyed 132

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)