Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 485 9.9% 31.93 -5.306 78.14% -0.976 -0.6923
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 298 14.68% 33.71 -4.28 68.12% -1.468 -1.0572
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 534 13.29% 43.48 0.78 77.34% -1.078 -0.2015
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 519 17.74% 44.22 0.934 70.71% -1.403 -0.1573
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 274 23.72% 47.87 2.17 62.77% -1.846 -0.3444
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 117 26.5% 42.13 -0.558 41.03% -2.746 -0.7929
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1296 29.32% 48.63 2.659 46.68% -2.628 -0.5852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2319 7.78% 30.81 -5.443 87.75% -0.18 -0.1384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1466 11.16% 33.02 -4.012 80.42% -0.629 -0.6476
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2656 9.57% 44.09 1.194 87.69% -0.193 -0.1794
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2863 11.42% 51.47 4.996 89.66% -0.088 0.2003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2122 11.62% 53.82 6.163 89.07% -0.116 0.2512
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1158 19.88% 59.74 8.679 85.75% -0.414 0.4122
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3860 39.48% 54.95 7.263 69.38% -1.287 -0.0491
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2280 8.94% 30.55 -5.587 86.49% -0.288 0.0437
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1267 12.22% 37.65 -1.687 79.08% -0.692 -0.1783
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2274 14.48% 38.72 -1.348 74.8% -1.088 -0.1198
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2138 20.53% 40.62 -0.564 59.92% -1.895 -0.3162
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5074 10.07% 53.54 4.969 80.17% -1.195 0.3029
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1055 22.01% 51.35 3.475 56.59% -2.216 -0.143
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13833 23.57% 54.45 6.373 53.88% -2.166 0.0817
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1700 11.43% 34.45 -3.722 85.82% -0.45 0.0641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 864 26.25% 33.83 -3.838 70.95% -1.168 -0.2687
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1439 19.36% 41.05 -0.217 69.01% -1.378 0.7649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1522 20.45% 50.29 4.401 73.52% -1.208 0.9885
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1189 19.58% 54.08 6.051 71.83% -1.329 0.8292
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1511 31.77% 62.94 10.155 83.45% -0.372 1.4449
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7518 28.46% 61.87 10.117 69.46% -1.463 0.6343
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2058 7.85% 30.07 -5.825 84.35% -0.49 -0.4043
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1227 14.24% 32.17 -4.483 77.59% -0.772 -0.7386
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1744 16.29% 33.47 -3.952 72.48% -1.106 -0.8709
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1776 22.38% 43.42 1.173 79.22% -0.762 -0.4756
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1099 24.34% 43.72 1.084 70.7% -1.25 -0.4663
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 751 24.43% 47.76 2.975 70.31% -1.215 -0.0482
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5481 20.87% 53.79 5.736 77.49% -1.08 0.0447
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 358 9.5% 29.99 -6.356 89.66% -0.109 -0.2106
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 209 21.15% 36.33 -2.802 82.78% -0.62 0.1594
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 342 23.1% 42.93 0.211 87.43% -0.271 0.1484
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 511 32.68% 48.46 3.288 80.43% -0.824 0.4302
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 302 32.12% 52.26 4.631 78.48% -0.953 0.1633
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 224 40.63% 55.44 6.765 64.73% -1.648 0.3507
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1060 46.93% 56.84 6.285 53.02% -2.452 -0.5741

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 52349 21.62 43.41 -0.422 74.5% -0.404 -0.232
1 Thematic 7843 23.23 45.25 0.837 69.59% -0.662 -0.3004
2 Archipelago 9 11.11 34.67 -3.988 77.78% -0.713 -0.4863
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8736 8.39 40.96 -0.68 82.8% -0.211 -0.159
2 Coastline 1602 22.06 40.76 -1.837 67.67% -0.643 -0.6353
2 Fragment 291 12.41 38.74 -2.266 74.91% -0.458 -0.2018
2 Heart 154 16.23 42.34 -0.354 85.71% -0.097 0.0453
2 Opposite Shores 4357 15.81 42.04 -1.027 79.07% -0.246 -0.1552
2 Thematic 2660 14.51 48.39 0.479 66.05% -0.503 -0.5449
2 Top to Top 212 16.1 41.49 -1.253 73.58% -0.464 -0.4949
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 34.0 -3.054 100.0% 0.096 1.1773
3 Coastline 39 7.89 49.59 0.956 84.62% -0.147 -0.3456
3 Other 206 10.19 40.77 -1.642 76.21% -0.45 -0.2756
3 Round (Default) 7356 16.18 44.42 -0.434 73.69% -0.219 -0.293
3 Sunrise 53 13.21 61.23 4.652 83.02% 0.177 -0.0994
3 Thematic 418 14.35 43.9 -2.246 72.97% -0.215 -0.6165
4 Archipelago 4 0.0 45.0 1.921 100.0% 0.325 0.8337
4 Coastline 27 7.41 35.3 -5.331 33.33% -0.788 -0.7382
4 Leaf 25 16.0 41.64 -1.507 68.0% 0.047 0.0191
4 Other 250 12.8 52.2 3.258 92.4% 1.101 0.987
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 5.66 100.0% 0.296 -0.5589
4 Snake 1 0.0 54.0 3.436 100.0% 0.074 0.1277
4 Thematic 3132 7.32 66.0 3.533 85.95% 1.316 0.232
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7066 9.47 50.08 1.273 80.2% 0.243 0.1568
5 Archipelago 1 0.0 13.0 -14.611 0.0% -0.91 -0.0332
5 Other 58 25.86 48.62 2.218 93.1% 0.814 0.2108
5 Thematic 58 3.45 79.24 10.543 98.28% 2.574 -0.1881
6 Other 1 0.0 40.0 -0.932 100.0% 0.02 -0.1425

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1453 41.47 -2.433 58.09% -0.616 1.4567
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1194 43.99 -1.406 59.63% -0.519 1.3994
All Things Weaken 604 39.44 -3.17 56.62% -0.79 1.3803
Back Against the Wall 1180 42.79 -1.853 58.98% -0.55 1.5412
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1249 37.58 -4.318 54.92% -0.794 1.4307
Downward Spiral 2845 40.16 -2.399 62.04% -0.575 1.4482
Erosion of Will 1293 39.99 -3.21 54.68% -0.758 1.4506
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 341 44.75 -0.56 71.55% -0.162 0.5247
Memory Fades to Dust 2717 38.25 -3.245 58.08% -0.775 1.4436
Power Corrodes the Spirit 568 42.63 -1.853 63.2% -0.435 1.5885
Promising Farmlands 1303 36.7 -4.697 49.65% -1.024 1.19
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 254 45.5 -0.088 77.17% 0.157 0.5668
Thriving Communities 559 36.92 -4.694 48.12% -1.127 0.9675
Tipping Point 683 39.47 -3.506 56.08% -0.703 1.5229
Unnatural Proliferation 593 39.9 -2.925 55.48% -0.803 1.2838
Untended Land Crumbles 587 40.93 -2.395 63.71% -0.47 1.6357

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 26455 16.32% 44.98 0.194 76.57% 1.062 0.3021
B 25652 15.81% 44.59 -0.02 78.08% 0.933 0.0755
C 26168 13.99% 44.16 -0.107 78.63% 1.006 -0.0829
D 20699 15.16% 42.26 -0.949 77.21% 0.903 0.0533
E 6307 17.94% 46.84 0.556 76.11% 0.967 0.0023
F 10835 17.6% 46.84 0.603 76.35% 1.034 0.1197
G 10158 18.63% 44.45 -0.494 72.6% 0.809 -0.0969
H 9844 16.2% 45.24 -0.014 75.07% 0.901 -0.013
East 6484 13.27% 56.81 2.409 77.65% 0.987 0.3378
Northeast 6129 14.67% 54.79 1.862 74.63% 0.803 0.2039
Northwest 5405 15.03% 55.73 2.021 75.82% 0.987 0.3175
Southeast 1289 7.82% 55.48 1.882 85.73% 1.232 0.5257
Southwest 1250 10.1% 51.79 -0.78 81.28% 0.554 0.2814
West 6395 12.45% 56.71 2.415 77.29% 0.942 0.5431

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1051 0.0% 34.38 -4.991 84.49% -0.639 1.4175
Not Using Events or Tokens 9637 17.8% 39.69 -1.355 69.74% -0.256 -0.0401
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5650 5.15% 58.38 4.394 89.89% 1.238 0.5511
Start of Game Growth 8634 5.38% 56.74 3.184 87.13% -0.004 -0.4742
Unlimited Undo 8644 13.99% 50.12 1.589 85.25% 0.47 0.0499
Using Tokens but Not Events 13946 13.24% 43.65 -0.477 86.4% 0.476 0.4242

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33952 22.35 51.22%
II 44524 30.84 86.27%
III 15171 34.35 93.08%
IV 3264 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.389 Win Model: -1.076
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 60355 21.83% 43.67 73.91%
2 17937 12.49% 42.21 77.76%
3 8048 15.87% 44.43 73.87%
4 10570 8.88% 54.94 82.13%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13004
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10815
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29191
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2472
Lose: Invader deck ran out 382
Lose: Adversary condition 3699
Win: Sacrifice victory 187
Lose: Scenario condition 16201
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3326
Lose: Spirit destroyed 118

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)