Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 663 10.26% 33.71 -3.978 79.03% -0.501 0.0271
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 388 14.1% 34.34 -4.178 68.04% -0.521 0.1878
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 711 13.65% 43.86 0.417 74.4% -0.826 0.24
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 666 19.42% 45.16 10.08 68.77% -0.279 1.1645
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 373 24.93% 48.42 -1.944 62.73% -1.49 0.1979
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 137 27.01% 41.92 2.915 38.69% -1.091 0.5299
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1909 31.38% 49.06 -2.119 42.95% -2.734 -0.5387
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1975 8.47% 30.78 -7.608 86.73% -0.512 -0.25
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1592 10.61% 35.82 1.054 82.41% 0.81 0.6278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2468 10.24% 45.33 1.762 87.32% -0.116 0.0768
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2712 10.86% 52.1 4.023 89.93% 0.292 0.7807
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2100 12.84% 54.33 4.275 89.52% -0.247 0.2697
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1176 19.11% 60.93 9.384 88.01% 0.307 1.4754
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3377 38.1% 56.51 4.807 69.62% -1.198 0.3595
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1904 9.93% 31.13 -7.303 86.61% -0.99 -0.5534
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1267 11.77% 38.42 -2.119 79.72% -0.496 0.1882
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1978 14.39% 39.16 -1.437 74.57% -0.249 0.8156
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1965 20.97% 42.04 0.59 61.27% -1.673 -0.0095
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5365 9.53% 54.97 4.446 82.95% -0.585 1.0264
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1008 19.9% 53.3 5.471 60.52% -1.19 0.8173
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14444 23.46% 55.95 5.328 55.82% -2.068 0.3213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1308 11.79% 34.62 -5.877 84.4% -0.903 -0.0919
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 805 25.41% 34.85 -3.145 74.04% -0.005 0.8652
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1254 19.45% 41.67 -0.15 68.26% -1.246 1.0373
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1221 22.0% 50.75 5.445 73.63% -0.114 2.1931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1008 17.79% 53.66 5.756 70.34% -0.789 1.641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1709 31.77% 63.26 9.791 84.26% -0.263 1.5669
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7483 28.69% 63.05 9.402 69.68% -0.864 1.4494
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 49 10.2% 33.37 -6.498 83.67% -0.979 -1.1721
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 33 6.06% 36.52 -2.853 78.79% 0.093 0.9531
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 42 19.05% 39.38 -1.734 78.57% -0.274 0.6618
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 55 21.82% 45.91 0.291 69.09% -0.705 0.041
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 173 20.23% 51.33 3.967 82.08% -0.402 0.8605
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 104 44.23% 54.6 4.611 74.04% -0.523 0.8639
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 424 43.4% 47.6 0.896 35.85% -2.478 -0.8452
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1768 8.28% 30.17 -8.117 83.26% -0.831 -0.6843
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1147 13.29% 33.03 -2.978 78.81% -0.007 -0.0522
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1513 17.68% 34.25 -3.184 72.11% -0.743 -0.2942
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1602 24.19% 43.44 -1.189 77.65% -0.951 -0.6909
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 934 24.22% 44.18 1.759 71.95% -0.186 0.6819
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 640 25.24% 49.64 2.547 74.53% -0.292 0.5982
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5423 23.09% 54.79 4.548 75.47% -0.649 0.5844
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 518 11.58% 31.18 -6.3 85.71% -0.469 -0.5837
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 350 21.49% 37.58 -4.233 80.29% -1.103 -0.3166
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 512 25.78% 43.31 2.564 83.2% 1.247 1.7679
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 671 34.28% 47.84 2.651 78.09% -0.014 1.1505
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 440 28.18% 53.78 5.615 79.55% 0.121 1.4261
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 340 33.82% 59.44 11.04 70.0% -0.048 1.8233
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1637 47.43% 56.46 4.419 48.75% -2.24 -0.337

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 52601 22.12 44.19 74.19% -0.295 0.1487 -0.289
1 Thematic 7270 22.2 45.72 69.75% -0.427 0.1491 -0.487
2 Archipelago 55 20.0 37.95 60.0% -0.533 0.1014 -0.148
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7526 8.0 42.14 83.06% 0.034 0.4072 0.096
2 Coastline 1523 23.9 40.58 65.66% 0.083 0.1662 -1.202
2 Fragment 283 17.5 39.8 72.44% -0.633 -0.6238 0.035
2 Heart 131 19.08 44.63 85.5% 0.021 0.2746 -0.681
2 Opposite Shores 4537 15.52 42.24 78.91% 0.117 0.5928 -0.487
2 Thematic 2249 12.3 53.35 70.3% 0.148 0.5323 0.037
2 Top to Top 189 11.67 43.12 75.13% 0.563 0.8652 -0.051
3 Archipelago 25 44.0 58.32 76.0% 0.057 -0.4297 -0.497
3 Coastline 33 6.25 46.82 87.88% 0.624 0.0692 1.47
3 Other 253 10.67 39.0 80.24% 0.415 -0.6209 -0.077
3 Round (Default) 7149 17.31 45.89 74.21% 0.082 0.3747 -0.125
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 1.027
3 Thematic 332 18.43 46.18 77.11% 0.928 0.5374 0.212
4 Archipelago 30 26.67 46.8 60.0% 0.484 -0.3724 -1.743
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% -0.807 -0.9042 0.285
4 Leaf 30 16.67 40.4 60.0% 0.043 0.2826 -1.081
4 Other 256 15.63 54.18 93.36% 0.002 -0.4437 0.942
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2560 6.53 66.61 87.77% 0.018 0.054 0.531
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6799 9.3 51.94 81.91% 0.064 -0.0928 0.349
5 Archipelago 3 33.33 43.33 66.67%
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.218 -0.3037 0.36
5 Other 140 25.0 51.11 81.43% -0.251 0.0972 0.174
5 Thematic 78 6.41 75.31 93.59% -0.316 -0.4352 1.619
6 Archipelago 8 0.0 49.5 62.5% 0.062 -0.4548 -0.309
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0% 0.055 -0.4032
6 Other 75 1.33 50.89 73.33% -0.05 0.7391 -0.292
6 Star 61 6.56 35.03 67.21% -0.575 0.1565 -0.243
6 Thematic 226 2.21 62.74 80.97% -0.714 -0.5367 0.376
6 Two Centers (Default) 298 3.02 54.59 76.85% -0.48 -0.1177 -0.41
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% -0.066
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% 0.062 -0.6903 -0.413

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1357 41.99 57.04% -0.434 1.3945 -0.635
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1117 44.05 58.46% -0.717 0.9262 -0.599
All Things Weaken 879 41.38 57.0% -0.609 1.369 -0.781
Back Against the Wall 1107 42.13 55.74% -0.651 1.2007 -0.668
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1194 38.12 53.52% -0.958 1.0211 -1.059
Downward Spiral 2404 39.52 59.65% -0.735 1.165 -0.621
Erosion of Will 1211 39.85 52.85% -0.795 1.2858 -0.838
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 492 45.7 69.31% -0.291 0.2475 -0.377
Memory Fades to Dust 2297 38.66 57.68% -0.675 1.3046 -0.75
Power Corrodes the Spirit 860 43.23 60.35% -0.76 1.1311 -0.569
Promising Farmlands 1166 37.39 47.77% -1.417 0.5922 -1.023
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 348 46.78 77.3% 0.509 0.9545 -0.026
Thriving Communities 840 37.23 45.6% -1.426 0.5458 -1.132
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.075
Unnatural Proliferation 884 40.56 53.28% -1.338 0.5544 -0.894
Untended Land Crumbles 873 41.69 60.25% -1.251 0.7721 -0.678

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 23515 16.46% 46.18 76.81% -0.45 0.3243 -0.078
B 23083 16.08% 46.13 78.4% -0.491 0.2117 0.058
C 22941 13.77% 45.53 80.07% -0.294 0.2713 0.053
D 17125 15.67% 43.43 77.35% -0.696 0.0699 -0.077
E 9466 17.69% 47.45 75.66% -0.493 0.1127 -0.003
F 14074 18.08% 47.23 75.87% -0.428 0.2783 -0.096
G 13028 18.83% 44.94 72.71% -0.7 0.03 -0.286
H 12601 16.08% 46.2 75.82% -0.431 0.2439 -0.014
East 8787 14.39% 54.54 76.47% -0.433 0.2276 0.288
Northeast 5401 13.94% 56.2 76.23% 0.204 0.9071 0.146
Northwest 4585 13.95% 57.17 77.32% -0.621 0.4379 0.114
Southeast 1813 7.62% 55.99 83.67% -0.58 0.1638 0.094
Southwest 1755 10.17% 52.77 80.28% -1.486 -0.4773 -0.614
West 8034 14.15% 54.32 76.34% -0.219 0.8489 0.145

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 910 0.0% 34.88 84.73% -0.866 1.1512 -0.303
Not Using Events or Tokens 8893 16.91% 40.29 70.45% -0.614 -0.3955 -0.182
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6611 5.46% 60.94 89.28% 0.971 0.8595 1.492
Start of Game Growth 9582 5.73% 58.57 86.57% 0.248 -0.4535 -1.05
Unlimited Undo 8891 12.99% 50.59 86.05% 0.337 -0.3571 0.899
Using Tokens but Not Events 13648 11.82% 46.12 88.2% 0.441 0.3831 0.635

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33194 22.6 51.76%
II 43607 31.02 86.07%
III 14852 34.58 93.01%
IV 3141 37.82 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.151 Win Model: 0.49
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 60219 22.15% 44.39 73.64%
2 16310 12.32% 43.49 78.3%
3 7767 17.11% 45.82 74.87%
4 9772 8.74% 56.0 83.72%
5 54 24.07% 50.61 74.07%
6 671 2.84% 55.06 76.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 17166
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13758
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 37463
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3105
Lose: Invader deck ran out 315
Lose: Adversary condition 3728
Win: Sacrifice victory 177
Lose: Scenario condition 15556
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3413
Lose: Spirit destroyed 113

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)