Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 720 10.42% 33.55 -5.287 78.33% -0.669 -0.4658
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 447 12.67% 34.38 -4.159 67.56% -1.226 -0.8037
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 795 13.97% 43.76 -0.914 73.58% -0.823 -0.1084
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 755 18.85% 45.43 1.465 67.81% -1.018 0.0317
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 429 25.17% 49.19 5.874 62.47% -0.733 0.5754
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 154 31.17% 42.29 -1.155 38.96% -1.571 -0.0045
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2178 31.27% 48.93 3.45 42.88% -1.405 0.56
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2087 8.6% 30.73 -5.723 86.1% -0.582 -0.4878
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1831 11.03% 37.64 -3.027 83.29% -0.004 -0.0973
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2668 10.52% 45.42 2.814 86.62% 0.232 0.1783
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2995 11.11% 52.18 3.156 88.31% -0.288 -0.0411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2317 12.79% 54.38 6.026 88.99% 0.025 0.0903
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1352 19.07% 60.89 8.182 87.72% -0.23 0.228
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3722 38.07% 56.42 5.813 69.45% -0.783 0.5025
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2032 9.96% 30.9 -6.988 85.38% -0.675 -0.48
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1422 11.61% 38.4 -1.562 79.61% -0.481 -0.2611
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2133 14.72% 39.16 -0.9 74.21% -0.515 0.2371
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2137 21.01% 41.77 -0.64 60.79% -1.173 -0.0177
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5754 9.22% 55.04 5.037 82.95% -0.752 0.2612
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1124 19.71% 53.57 5.404 60.41% -1.233 0.3227
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15831 23.14% 55.86 4.498 55.59% -1.388 0.6428
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1376 11.79% 34.49 -4.742 83.58% -0.574 -0.204
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 932 24.41% 34.97 -3.809 74.89% -0.557 0.4283
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1339 19.64% 41.39 -4.35 67.66% -1.476 -0.3638
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1383 22.1% 50.42 5.142 72.52% -0.564 0.8145
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1111 18.3% 52.78 1.187 68.41% -1.135 0.3169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1893 32.12% 63.21 11.263 83.89% 0.07 1.0239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8502 28.86% 62.71 8.718 68.83% -0.823 0.5195
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 97 10.31% 32.76 -4.267 82.47% -0.405 -0.4783
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 86 11.63% 32.53 -5.975 63.95% -1.221 -0.7809
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 130 14.62% 37.49 -2.86 63.85% -0.816 -0.4163
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 209 18.18% 43.93 1.761 62.68% -0.696 -0.3428
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 299 21.07% 50.26 3.139 77.26% -0.747 -0.1752
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 583 35.33% 50.8 3.493 66.04% -0.791 -0.0436
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1247 41.3% 46.81 1.568 39.62% -1.739 -0.4678
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1861 8.41% 30.19 -5.975 83.02% -0.33 -0.172
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1324 12.58% 33.9 0.202 79.53% -0.102 -0.1018
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1670 17.81% 34.26 -3.594 71.38% -0.972 -0.7617
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1754 23.74% 43.12 -1.663 76.8% -0.97 -0.6308
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1019 24.56% 43.97 -1.402 70.95% -1.142 -0.5363
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 712 26.77% 49.32 2.579 73.6% -0.645 0.3064
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6475 23.75% 54.38 4.751 74.32% -0.482 0.3218
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 577 11.27% 30.97 -7.116 84.4% -0.48 -0.4531
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 405 21.29% 37.23 -3.042 78.27% -0.763 -0.1608
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 575 24.87% 42.47 -2.296 81.39% -0.484 -0.1718
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 757 34.87% 47.62 1.201 76.88% -0.722 0.3758
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 531 25.24% 53.03 2.868 77.78% -0.816 0.2179
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 395 34.43% 58.49 0.677 67.85% -1.362 0.0712
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1971 47.51% 54.81 -2.392 47.18% -2.129 -0.1722

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 58348 22.38 44.16 73.76% 0.792 0.9984 -0.339
1 Thematic 8827 23.0 46.04 67.29% 0.513 1.1183 -0.575
2 Archipelago 86 23.26 43.49 58.14% 0.068 0.3915 -0.714
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8392 7.96 42.22 82.7% 0.545 0.6925 0.037
2 Coastline 1713 24.41 40.09 63.98% -0.359 -0.3238 -1.309
2 Fragment 291 17.01 39.53 72.51% 0.207 0.1392 0.081
2 Heart 152 19.08 42.08 81.58% -0.207 -0.4852 -0.568
2 Opposite Shores 5041 15.08 42.63 78.46% 0.464 0.5775 -0.587
2 Thematic 2445 12.09 53.4 69.69% 0.455 1.1013 0.086
2 Top to Top 204 12.31 42.78 75.0% -0.158 -0.1339 -0.101
3 Archipelago 44 34.09 58.36 79.55% 0.537 -0.6282 -0.429
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.318 -0.2201 1.479
3 Other 311 9.0 33.22 67.2% -2.522 -2.4277 0.014
3 Round (Default) 7995 17.52 46.03 74.06% -0.026 -0.1052 -0.248
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.944
3 Thematic 371 17.3 46.51 77.36% 0.194 0.2415 0.358
4 Archipelago 39 28.21 48.56 61.54% 1.119 0.8804 -0.845
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.536 0.5897 0.424
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.124
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.068 0.08 1.002
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2694 7.77 65.54 85.86% -0.111 -0.1454 0.532
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7310 9.37 51.69 81.7% -0.089 -0.2954 0.268
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 56.5 75.0% 0.377 -0.714 0.146
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.036 -0.0465 0.266
5 Other 174 22.41 48.45 79.31% 0.268 -0.2178 0.277
5 Thematic 80 6.25 74.11 92.5% -0.048 -0.2696 1.953
6 Archipelago 43 6.98 59.19 74.42% 0.157 0.1439 -0.666
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 120 0.83 54.93 76.67% -0.881 -1.3608 -0.546
6 Star 77 6.49 37.29 67.53% -0.294 -0.0188 -0.473
6 Thematic 417 3.36 58.0 73.38% -0.659 -0.2694 0.124
6 Two Centers (Default) 421 3.09 47.68 72.21% -1.933 -1.9128 -0.984
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 0.903 0.4258 0.442
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.464

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1492 42.17 57.17% -0.183 0.0828 -0.603
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1251 43.87 57.87% 0.204 0.2111 -0.585
All Things Weaken 1032 41.7 56.49% -0.344 0.0916 -0.744
Attenuated Essence 30 44.0 56.67% -0.468 -0.2779 -0.791
Back Against the Wall 1218 42.57 56.08% 0.378 0.5193 -0.606
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24 32.42 37.5% -0.65 -0.2658 -0.65
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 36.86 45.45% -0.534 -0.2403 -0.242
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1332 38.24 53.08% -0.557 -0.054 -1.019
Downward Spiral 2671 39.62 59.53% -0.243 0.0865 -0.603
Erosion of Will 1339 39.75 52.95% -0.057 0.3284 -0.827
Intensifying Exploitation 26 35.0 50.0% -0.524 -0.1567 -0.912
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 564 46.0 68.97% -0.18 -0.6997 -0.318
Memory Fades to Dust 2532 38.88 57.23% -0.778 -0.3124 -0.706
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1016 43.41 60.43% -0.271 0.0195 -0.515
Promising Farmlands 1294 37.37 46.99% -0.7 -0.1314 -1.04
Shattered Fragments of Power 30 48.93 70.0% 0.601 0.7541 -0.199
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 42.0 50.0% -0.204 0.299 -0.605
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 398 47.23 77.14% -0.104 -0.7564 0.033
The Border of Life and Death 10 42.0 60.0% 0.062 -0.1172 -0.15
Thriving Communities 984 37.98 46.04% -0.535 -0.0739 -1.04
Thriving Crops 18 29.61 44.44% -0.534 -0.4874 -0.872
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.043
Unnatural Proliferation 1027 40.56 52.39% -0.293 -0.0016 -0.872
Untended Land Crumbles 1026 42.28 59.36% -0.388 -0.0667 -0.637

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25817 16.58% 46.05 76.35% -0.308 0.5284 -0.23
B 25875 16.01% 46.05 77.99% -0.131 0.6489 -0.074
C 25624 14.0% 45.42 79.16% -0.271 0.3818 -0.113
D 18911 15.86% 43.38 76.92% -0.355 0.4432 -0.198
E 10905 17.28% 46.83 74.59% -0.38 0.2446 -0.148
F 15610 18.23% 46.88 75.18% -0.375 0.3442 -0.247
G 14385 19.01% 44.83 72.41% -0.333 0.4103 -0.403
H 14073 16.0% 46.28 75.58% -0.293 0.3519 -0.118
East 10140 14.92% 53.96 74.16% -0.686 -0.0905 -0.045
Northeast 6159 14.17% 55.59 74.17% -0.622 0.2369 -0.028
Northwest 5247 15.0% 56.08 74.77% -0.48 0.2185 -0.044
Southeast 2306 8.9% 54.95 79.71% -0.006 0.6527 -0.057
Southwest 2221 12.01% 51.43 75.6% -0.615 0.5342 -0.751
West 9273 15.49% 53.39 73.69% -0.227 0.7127 -0.123

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 951 0.0% 34.82 84.33% -1.072 -0.1912 -0.346
Not Using Events or Tokens 9884 17.03% 40.53 70.29% -0.1 0.2255 -0.094
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7285 5.42% 60.65 87.73% 0.936 0.3952 1.228
Start of Game Growth 10511 5.8% 58.38 85.28% -0.196 -0.5154 -0.997
Unlimited Undo 9646 13.31% 49.96 84.49% -0.51 -0.5239 0.692
Using Tokens but Not Events 15032 11.9% 46.21 87.37% 0.448 0.3907 0.65

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37676 20.97 50.34%
II 48419 31.03 85.94%
III 16466 34.74 92.97%
IV 3453 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.026 Win Model: 0.646
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 67615 22.48% 44.41 72.88%
2 18085 12.19% 43.59 77.82%
3 8712 17.19% 45.7 74.27%
4 10426 9.13% 55.5 83.03%
5 95 20.0% 46.39 71.58%
6 1080 3.24% 52.22 72.96%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18949
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15238
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41531
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3415
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 822
Lose: Invader deck ran out 345
Lose: Adversary condition 4202
Win: Sacrifice victory 205
Lose: Scenario condition 17321
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3854
Lose: Spirit destroyed 132

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)