Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 722 10.39% 33.53 -4.725 78.25% -0.574 -0.3922
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 448 12.64% 34.3 -3.84 67.41% -1.16 -0.7836
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 798 14.05% 43.72 -0.543 73.56% -0.72 -0.0046
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 771 18.59% 45.43 2.166 67.7% -0.913 0.1179
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 433 24.94% 49.05 5.147 62.12% -0.97 0.3653
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 154 31.17% 42.29 -1.069 38.96% -1.573 0.0469
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2195 31.03% 48.89 3.313 42.96% -1.367 0.6478
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2093 8.62% 30.73 -5.729 86.05% -0.612 -0.5023
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1838 11.04% 37.61 -3.304 83.24% -0.097 -0.1897
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2674 10.5% 45.41 2.624 86.54% 0.089 0.0473
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3113 11.62% 51.69 1.156 86.51% -0.5 -0.2784
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2329 12.89% 54.34 6.184 88.92% 0.057 0.1246
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1360 18.95% 60.91 8.665 87.79% -0.078 0.3638
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3752 37.93% 56.4 5.82 69.4% -0.827 0.46
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2037 9.93% 30.86 -6.695 85.27% -0.654 -0.4155
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1431 11.54% 38.41 -1.684 79.59% -0.626 -0.45
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2144 14.78% 39.13 -0.905 74.11% -0.551 0.1739
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2144 21.08% 41.78 -0.426 60.87% -1.083 0.0474
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5768 9.2% 55.04 5.22 82.96% -0.692 0.3043
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1127 19.75% 53.57 5.501 60.43% -1.167 0.3985
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15998 23.13% 55.71 3.637 55.43% -1.429 0.6032
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1378 11.77% 34.47 -5.711 83.53% -0.666 -0.2727
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 940 24.2% 34.9 -4.362 74.68% -0.765 0.2385
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1354 19.49% 40.99 -5.295 66.99% -1.596 -0.4925
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1387 22.11% 50.46 5.908 72.6% -0.436 0.9185
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1113 18.36% 52.82 1.95 68.46% -1.05 0.37
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1902 32.02% 63.2 11.049 83.86% -0.003 0.9054
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8546 28.86% 62.69 8.714 68.79% -0.86 0.4685
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 98 10.2% 32.73 -4.739 82.65% -0.402 -0.4656
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 88 11.36% 32.52 -5.154 63.64% -0.989 -0.6018
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 133 14.29% 37.14 -2.719 63.16% -0.828 -0.46
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 213 18.31% 43.43 1.014 61.97% -0.826 -0.4569
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 302 21.52% 50.08 2.439 76.82% -0.862 -0.2884
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 634 35.33% 49.77 3.352 64.51% -0.782 -0.0205
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1272 41.19% 46.75 2.101 39.62% -1.666 -0.4041
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1882 8.42% 29.93 -6.795 82.25% -0.629 -0.4699
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1335 12.55% 33.95 0.098 79.4% -0.296 -0.2576
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1675 17.94% 34.27 -2.955 71.34% -0.929 -0.7131
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1763 23.85% 43.02 -2.459 76.52% -1.113 -0.7525
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1033 24.71% 43.95 -0.979 70.76% -1.18 -0.6047
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 716 27.04% 49.2 1.321 73.32% -0.815 0.1108
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6518 23.83% 54.32 4.662 74.21% -0.522 0.2972
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 580 11.21% 30.94 -7.232 84.48% -0.405 -0.357
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 407 21.18% 37.05 -4.82 77.89% -1.075 -0.4964
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 580 24.83% 42.46 -1.933 81.38% -0.464 -0.1237
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 762 34.91% 47.54 0.505 76.64% -0.887 0.2246
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 539 24.86% 53.08 3.11 77.74% -0.862 0.1369
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 398 34.42% 58.4 1.182 67.84% -1.281 0.1384
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1979 47.32% 54.64 -3.855 46.99% -2.353 -0.4277

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 58668 22.38 44.13 73.69% 0.633 0.8575 -0.364
1 Thematic 8984 23.02 45.94 66.86% 0.409 1.0307 -0.606
2 Archipelago 86 23.26 43.49 58.14% 0.101 0.5138 -0.746
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8434 7.98 42.26 82.75% 0.555 0.7038 0.026
2 Coastline 1718 24.34 40.02 63.91% -0.45 -0.4167 -1.341
2 Fragment 292 16.96 39.56 72.6% 0.339 0.2585 0.056
2 Heart 152 19.08 42.08 81.58% -0.318 -0.671 -0.567
2 Opposite Shores 5062 15.07 42.62 78.35% 0.204 0.3095 -0.605
2 Thematic 2457 12.07 53.36 69.64% 0.367 1.0474 0.117
2 Top to Top 204 12.31 42.78 75.0% -0.182 -0.1959 -0.125
3 Archipelago 44 34.09 58.36 79.55% 0.465 -0.9462 -0.434
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.439 -0.0449 1.457
3 Other 325 8.92 31.87 64.31% -2.489 -2.3143 0.006
3 Round (Default) 8036 17.44 46.02 74.03% -0.091 -0.2189 -0.266
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.89
3 Thematic 372 17.25 46.38 77.15% 0.027 0.0574 0.392
4 Archipelago 39 28.21 48.56 61.54% 1.147 0.5721 -0.856
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.504 0.8137 0.418
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.119
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.348 0.2844 1.05
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2703 7.85 65.44 85.72% -0.171 -0.2488 0.537
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7331 9.38 51.63 81.61% -0.112 -0.3589 0.258
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 56.5 75.0% 0.423 -0.6245 0.137
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.04 -0.0701 0.251
5 Other 174 22.41 48.45 79.31% 0.186 -0.4352 0.312
5 Thematic 81 6.17 73.2 91.36% -0.093 -0.2147 1.888
6 Archipelago 44 6.82 58.55 72.73% -0.183 -0.0021 -0.762
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 124 0.81 55.12 76.61% -0.816 -1.2871 -0.576
6 Star 77 6.49 37.29 67.53% -0.258 -0.2165 -0.465
6 Thematic 444 3.6 56.11 70.95% -0.537 -0.1879 0.145
6 Two Centers (Default) 425 3.06 47.35 71.76% -2.014 -2.1218 -0.968
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 1.055 0.6848 0.479
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.433

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1498 42.2 57.21% -0.049 0.1621 -0.594
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1256 43.87 57.96% 0.34 0.3084 -0.576
All Things Weaken 1036 41.72 56.56% -0.108 0.3047 -0.728
Attenuated Essence 37 42.03 51.35% -0.574 -0.4216 -0.781
Back Against the Wall 1221 42.6 56.1% 0.382 0.4898 -0.597
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 25 32.2 36.0% -0.718 -0.3796 -0.713
Burn Brightest Before the End 27 36.7 44.44% -0.543 -0.3058 -0.596
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1338 38.28 53.14% -0.38 0.0916 -1.004
Downward Spiral 2700 39.58 59.41% -0.171 0.1155 -0.589
Erosion of Will 1344 39.7 52.83% -0.473 -0.1245 -0.834
Intensifying Exploitation 29 34.48 48.28% -0.509 -0.1633 -0.801
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 567 46.02 68.96% -0.181 -0.7094 -0.297
Memory Fades to Dust 2552 38.94 57.25% -0.487 -0.0696 -0.678
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1019 43.4 60.35% -0.294 -0.0345 -0.501
Promising Farmlands 1296 37.36 46.99% -0.711 -0.192 -1.037
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 47.49 68.57% 0.621 0.7305 -0.199
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 41.07 50.0% -0.186 0.2877 -0.688
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 399 47.12 76.94% 0.047 -0.5695 0.015
The Border of Life and Death 10 42.0 60.0% 0.115 -0.1883 -0.155
Thriving Communities 991 38.0 46.01% -0.385 0.0156 -1.02
Thriving Crops 21 31.19 47.62% -0.39 -0.4176 -0.662
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.041
Unnatural Proliferation 1035 40.55 52.46% -0.218 0.0183 -0.853
Untended Land Crumbles 1031 42.27 59.26% -0.425 -0.1241 -0.636

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25927 16.56% 46.02 76.33% -0.315 0.5353 -0.263
B 26025 15.99% 46.01 77.89% -0.234 0.579 -0.106
C 25753 13.98% 45.35 79.02% -0.375 0.3088 -0.153
D 18985 15.86% 43.35 76.83% -0.467 0.3581 -0.242
E 11011 17.24% 46.71 74.32% -0.545 0.1035 -0.203
F 15674 18.24% 46.85 75.14% -0.458 0.2883 -0.279
G 14443 18.99% 44.81 72.39% -0.408 0.3586 -0.439
H 14146 16.02% 46.25 75.5% -0.392 0.2888 -0.159
East 10330 15.07% 53.64 73.53% -0.771 -0.1263 -0.081
Northeast 6325 14.39% 55.1 73.25% -0.667 0.1519 -0.147
Northwest 5289 14.97% 55.91 74.49% -0.586 0.1455 -0.061
Southeast 2343 8.89% 54.55 79.04% -0.197 0.5334 -0.11
Southwest 2257 11.95% 51.07 75.01% -0.707 0.3866 -0.809
West 9331 15.45% 53.28 73.51% -0.218 0.7349 -0.172

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 952 0.0% 34.83 84.35% -1.182 -0.348 -0.293
Not Using Events or Tokens 10061 17.14% 40.48 69.93% -0.151 0.1782 -0.153
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7323 5.41% 60.61 87.61% 1.052 0.4666 1.233
Start of Game Growth 10567 5.78% 58.33 85.14% -0.191 -0.4621 -0.989
Unlimited Undo 9687 13.26% 49.94 84.41% -0.524 -0.5308 0.706
Using Tokens but Not Events 15157 11.88% 46.15 87.11% 0.438 0.3686 0.625

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37998 20.82 50.1%
II 48695 31.03 85.91%
III 16529 34.74 92.98%
IV 3474 38.03 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.041 Win Model: 0.702
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 68095 22.49% 44.37 72.75%
2 18166 12.18% 43.59 77.79%
3 8766 17.11% 45.63 74.13%
4 10457 9.16% 55.42 82.93%
5 108 17.59% 41.09 62.96%
6 1103 3.36% 52.05 72.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19020
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15297
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41754
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3436
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1011
Lose: Invader deck ran out 348
Lose: Adversary condition 4213
Win: Sacrifice victory 207
Lose: Scenario condition 17407
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3871
Lose: Spirit destroyed 132

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)