Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 733 10.37% 33.3 -5.945 77.63% -0.875 -0.6122
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 454 12.47% 34.14 -4.413 66.96% -1.235 -0.8887
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 811 13.82% 43.7 0.693 73.37% -0.625 0.2047
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 781 18.6% 45.49 3.16 67.86% -0.643 0.3485
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 441 24.72% 49.07 5.639 61.9% -0.914 0.4058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 159 30.19% 42.43 2.017 39.62% -1.125 0.5377
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2267 30.22% 48.94 2.056 43.41% -1.555 0.4577
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2114 8.68% 30.68 -4.668 85.76% -0.513 -0.4282
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1866 10.98% 37.52 -2.688 83.17% -0.019 -0.1143
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2703 10.65% 45.45 3.363 86.42% 0.098 0.0862
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3159 11.87% 51.54 0.753 86.17% -0.486 -0.2887
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2371 12.96% 54.23 5.07 88.74% -0.063 0.1399
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1388 18.79% 60.71 8.703 87.46% 0.005 0.5663
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3796 38.02% 56.21 4.025 69.18% -1.02 0.3179
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2049 9.97% 30.88 -4.479 85.31% -0.109 0.1565
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1449 11.75% 38.28 -2.139 79.3% -0.642 -0.4582
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2160 14.81% 39.06 -1.672 73.94% -0.722 0.0144
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2175 21.15% 41.76 -0.418 60.97% -1.123 0.0161
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5837 9.22% 54.99 4.886 82.83% -0.785 0.2614
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1139 19.54% 53.55 4.896 60.4% -1.451 0.1896
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16160 23.07% 55.69 3.416 55.43% -1.522 0.5197
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1385 11.79% 34.44 -5.831 83.54% -0.604 -0.2014
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 956 24.0% 34.71 -4.109 74.27% -0.752 0.2038
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1368 19.37% 40.93 -3.4 66.89% -1.263 -0.1891
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1398 22.15% 50.41 6.424 72.46% -0.432 0.8558
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1123 18.38% 52.79 2.606 68.39% -1.181 0.221
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1927 31.91% 63.12 10.628 83.76% 0.033 0.9614
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8670 28.75% 62.59 8.846 68.69% -0.865 0.4786
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 101 10.89% 32.6 -4.673 82.18% -0.514 -0.4976
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 91 10.99% 33.01 -4.187 64.84% -0.869 -0.4389
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 145 14.48% 36.74 -3.323 64.14% -0.86 -0.4183
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 224 17.41% 43.5 1.213 62.5% -0.81 -0.4245
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 323 21.67% 50.54 4.847 77.4% -0.4 0.2192
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 700 34.0% 49.71 2.801 64.71% -0.841 -0.0575
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1369 41.71% 46.22 1.538 39.01% -1.837 -0.5615
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1890 8.38% 29.88 -6.602 82.06% -0.669 -0.4889
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1346 12.52% 34.08 1.036 79.42% -0.096 -0.0698
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1697 18.42% 34.26 -2.395 71.24% -0.628 -0.4054
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1781 23.61% 42.9 -3.068 76.19% -1.408 -0.9808
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1046 24.69% 43.85 -0.499 70.75% -0.999 -0.3908
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 735 28.4% 48.56 -1.977 71.56% -1.516 -0.5068
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6637 23.87% 54.2 4.882 74.11% -0.425 0.4618
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 583 11.15% 30.96 -6.65 84.39% -0.337 -0.2162
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 417 21.39% 36.91 -5.889 77.46% -1.106 -0.4655
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 594 24.58% 42.48 -0.872 81.65% -0.304 0.1221
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 764 35.08% 47.57 0.777 76.7% -0.788 0.3262
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 550 24.55% 53.11 5.804 77.64% -0.473 0.4319
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 405 34.32% 58.38 4.241 67.9% -0.868 0.6275
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2005 47.16% 54.35 -7.487 46.73% -2.897 -1.0569

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 59459 22.36 44.08 73.62% 0.422 0.476 -0.37
1 Thematic 9227 23.0 45.89 66.48% 0.203 0.6805 -0.621
2 Archipelago 87 24.14 43.1 57.47% 0.249 0.3529 -0.762
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8548 7.97 42.18 82.64% 0.366 0.448 0.01
2 Coastline 1747 24.17 39.67 63.48% -0.646 -0.7997 -1.36
2 Fragment 292 16.96 39.56 72.6% 0.146 -0.1029 0.047
2 Heart 153 18.95 42.22 81.7% 0.66 0.3725 -0.576
2 Opposite Shores 5128 15.27 42.63 78.08% -0.072 -0.0485 -0.646
2 Thematic 2486 12.01 53.43 69.71% 0.529 0.9329 0.137
2 Top to Top 205 12.24 42.73 75.12% 0.102 -0.0638 -0.127
3 Archipelago 47 34.04 59.68 80.85% 0.878 -0.6711 -0.232
3 Coastline 34 6.06 46.26 88.24% 0.275 -0.2382 1.459
3 Other 380 8.16 27.66 56.05% -2.328 -1.7875 -0.156
3 Round (Default) 8151 17.44 45.98 73.91% -0.362 -0.4774 -0.284
3 Sunrise 53 11.32 61.87 86.79% 0.883
3 Thematic 377 17.02 46.46 76.66% -0.044 0.0365 0.329
4 Archipelago 41 26.83 47.68 60.98% 0.477 -0.198 -0.843
4 Coastline 4 0.0 39.5 75.0% 0.832 1.063 0.555
4 Leaf 31 19.35 41.29 61.29% -1.11
4 Other 259 15.44 54.31 93.44% 1.152 0.0686 1.057
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 2720 8.06 65.29 85.51% 0.01 -0.2526 0.559
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7355 9.4 51.58 81.52% -0.352 -0.4349 0.261
5 Archipelago 8 25.0 56.5 75.0% 0.409 -0.5075 0.127
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.047 -0.6048 0.256
5 Other 175 22.29 48.29 79.43% 0.762 0.4772 0.323
5 Thematic 81 6.17 73.2 91.36% -0.324 -0.4174 1.906
6 Archipelago 46 6.52 59.22 73.91% 0.841 0.9922 -0.675
6 Coastline 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Other 129 0.78 55.47 76.74% -1.274 -1.5073 -0.513
6 Star 78 6.41 37.35 66.67% -0.095 -0.1079 -0.666
6 Thematic 459 3.49 55.6 70.15% -0.512 -0.0913 0.168
6 Two Centers (Default) 439 2.96 46.79 70.84% -2.578 -2.4736 -1.008
7 Archipelago 2 0.0 74.0 50.0% 0.787 0.7677 0.484
7 Other 3 0.0 36.67 33.33% -0.442

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1509 42.06 56.93% -0.422 -0.1793 -0.605
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1270 43.92 58.11% 0.405 0.3271 -0.559
All Things Weaken 1056 41.66 56.44% -0.374 0.019 -0.709
Attenuated Essence 52 39.17 48.08% -0.599 -0.4926 -0.904
Back Against the Wall 1231 42.59 56.21% 0.656 0.7136 -0.594
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 37 36.38 43.24% -0.412 -0.21 -0.568
Burn Brightest Before the End 33 36.7 42.42% -0.719 -0.5089 -0.512
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1355 38.18 52.99% -0.451 -0.0273 -1.012
Downward Spiral 2729 39.57 59.47% -0.012 0.2231 -0.572
Erosion of Will 1354 39.73 52.88% -0.456 -0.1471 -0.815
Intensifying Exploitation 38 34.42 50.0% -0.487 -0.1995 -0.963
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 577 45.72 68.63% -0.161 -0.6547 -0.318
Memory Fades to Dust 2572 38.93 57.23% -0.205 0.1315 -0.667
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1033 43.4 60.21% -0.109 0.1114 -0.5
Promising Farmlands 1309 37.27 46.83% -0.762 -0.3087 -1.043
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 46.42 65.79% 0.758 0.8086 -0.364
Slow Dissolution of Will 42 37.5 40.48% -0.381 0.0185 -0.97
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 404 46.82 76.24% -0.699 -1.4093 -0.039
The Border of Life and Death 15 36.4 53.33% -0.319 -0.6542 -0.376
Thriving Communities 1007 37.85 45.88% -0.345 0.0178 -1.02
Thriving Crops 25 30.6 44.0% -0.658 -0.856 -0.919
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -1.04
Unnatural Proliferation 1053 40.46 52.04% -0.396 -0.1811 -0.866
Untended Land Crumbles 1041 42.22 58.98% -0.287 -0.0055 -0.632

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26199 16.59% 45.96 76.22% -0.268 0.4718 -0.254
B 26389 15.99% 45.88 77.65% -0.312 0.4137 -0.084
C 26105 13.95% 45.22 78.73% -0.327 0.2553 -0.14
D 19226 15.92% 43.25 76.59% -0.515 0.196 -0.241
E 11263 17.09% 46.36 73.75% -0.626 -0.061 -0.203
F 15827 18.25% 46.76 75.07% -0.285 0.3853 -0.267
G 14608 18.99% 44.75 72.28% -0.37 0.2818 -0.428
H 14319 16.02% 46.23 75.4% -0.289 0.2816 -0.144
East 10532 15.09% 53.52 73.21% -0.739 -0.2003 -0.085
Northeast 6428 14.39% 54.92 72.99% -0.799 -0.1642 -0.134
Northwest 5350 15.2% 55.77 74.32% -0.482 0.3268 -0.049
Southeast 2411 8.81% 54.45 78.47% -0.244 0.4616 -0.113
Southwest 2324 12.04% 50.8 74.27% -0.777 0.2128 -0.782
West 9487 15.61% 53.12 73.16% -0.478 0.4259 -0.184

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 953 0.0% 34.83 84.37% -1.212 -0.4353 -0.276
Not Using Events or Tokens 10233 17.04% 40.4 69.87% -0.224 0.1549 -0.146
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7465 5.35% 60.56 87.25% 1.261 0.6434 1.187
Start of Game Growth 10729 5.82% 58.3 84.85% -0.168 -0.5166 -0.978
Unlimited Undo 9789 13.13% 49.96 84.3% -0.231 -0.2377 0.707
Using Tokens but Not Events 15451 11.87% 46.0 86.53% 0.478 0.4673 0.586

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 38681 20.4 49.78%
II 49345 31.01 85.88%
III 16700 34.76 93.01%
IV 3504 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.152 Win Model: 0.637
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 69142 22.46% 44.33 72.63%
2 18398 12.2% 43.53 77.63%
3 8940 17.01% 45.36 73.61%
4 10500 9.23% 55.35 82.81%
5 112 16.96% 40.12 61.61%
6 1137 3.26% 51.82 72.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19238
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15461
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 42295
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3466
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1299
Lose: Invader deck ran out 353
Lose: Adversary condition 4251
Win: Sacrifice victory 208
Lose: Scenario condition 17604
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3922
Lose: Spirit destroyed 133

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)