Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 493 9.74% 32.02 -5.296 78.5% -0.961 -0.6721
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 301 14.53% 33.59 -4.345 67.77% -1.483 -1.0686
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 550 12.9% 43.28 0.613 76.55% -1.132 -0.2484
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 533 17.46% 44.07 0.845 70.36% -1.419 -0.1771
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 279 23.66% 48.14 2.212 63.08% -1.849 -0.3525
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 118 26.27% 41.99 -0.621 40.68% -2.757 -0.8178
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1361 29.17% 48.91 2.723 47.17% -2.621 -0.5778
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2330 7.84% 30.8 -5.471 87.73% -0.181 -0.1395
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1488 11.0% 33.06 -4.021 80.58% -0.623 -0.6411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2692 9.64% 44.1 1.177 87.7% -0.192 -0.1789
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2889 11.42% 51.47 4.966 89.62% -0.093 0.1907
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2186 11.65% 53.85 6.17 89.16% -0.111 0.2481
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1168 20.14% 59.77 8.68 85.87% -0.401 0.4241
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3932 38.99% 55.08 7.274 69.61% -1.286 -0.0469
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2288 8.95% 30.52 -5.62 86.45% -0.289 0.0412
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1294 12.28% 37.69 -1.69 79.29% -0.681 -0.164
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2304 14.51% 38.69 -1.392 74.74% -1.095 -0.1214
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2166 20.46% 40.57 -0.618 59.74% -1.906 -0.3262
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5181 9.98% 53.59 4.958 80.25% -1.196 0.2987
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1092 21.83% 51.39 3.482 56.68% -2.216 -0.1461
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14122 23.44% 54.6 6.416 54.16% -2.16 0.0834
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1712 11.35% 34.42 -3.776 85.69% -0.463 0.0483
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 878 26.18% 33.82 -3.862 70.96% -1.171 -0.2682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1449 19.65% 41.11 -0.215 69.15% -1.37 0.7713
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1534 20.68% 50.18 4.33 73.27% -1.219 0.9799
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1197 19.53% 54.05 6.018 71.76% -1.332 0.8284
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1544 31.8% 63.0 10.184 83.61% -0.348 1.4698
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7649 28.36% 61.97 10.128 69.67% -1.458 0.6328
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2081 7.86% 30.01 -5.866 84.14% -0.504 -0.4158
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1248 14.09% 32.25 -4.464 77.88% -0.759 -0.7235
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1756 16.36% 33.44 -3.983 72.38% -1.11 -0.8725
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1797 22.46% 43.33 1.118 79.08% -0.767 -0.4764
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1113 24.08% 43.74 1.072 70.71% -1.252 -0.4704
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 760 24.47% 47.69 2.935 70.13% -1.218 -0.0493
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5591 20.69% 53.93 5.783 77.84% -1.063 0.0599
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 371 9.97% 29.78 -6.455 88.41% -0.218 -0.3063
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 220 21.46% 36.53 -2.701 83.18% -0.581 0.1983
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 347 23.05% 42.86 0.179 87.32% -0.269 0.143
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 528 32.77% 48.31 3.226 80.11% -0.837 0.4075
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 311 32.8% 52.13 4.531 78.14% -0.962 0.1458
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 230 40.43% 55.87 6.909 65.65% -1.619 0.3648
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1102 46.5% 57.07 6.362 53.45% -2.438 -0.5661

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 53351 21.53 43.51 -0.413 74.58% -0.259 -0.1728
1 Thematic 7911 23.3 45.22 0.808 69.5% -0.529 -0.2521
2 Archipelago 13 23.08 40.85 -1.04 84.62% -0.223 -0.2158
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8860 8.38 41.02 -0.675 82.82% -0.157 -0.1313
2 Coastline 1619 21.95 40.77 -1.838 67.7% -0.591 -0.6159
2 Fragment 300 12.71 39.26 -2.086 75.33% -0.37 -0.1474
2 Heart 155 16.13 42.26 -0.399 85.81% 0.056 0.1561
2 Opposite Shores 4446 15.74 42.01 -1.071 78.95% -0.206 -0.1405
2 Thematic 2697 14.61 48.43 0.488 65.89% -0.464 -0.5305
2 Top to Top 217 16.19 41.65 -1.197 73.27% -0.4 -0.4688
3 Archipelago 2 0.0 32.0 -5.626 100.0% 0.118 0.9227
3 Coastline 39 7.89 49.59 0.918 84.62% -0.163 -0.3135
3 Other 215 9.77 40.29 -1.831 77.21% -0.411 -0.2382
3 Round (Default) 7485 16.21 44.5 -0.421 73.8% -0.26 -0.2989
3 Sunrise 55 12.73 61.04 4.669 83.64% 0.178 -0.0818
3 Thematic 421 14.25 44.01 -2.196 73.16% -0.267 -0.633
4 Archipelago 6 16.67 45.67 1.607 83.33% -0.246 0.3018
4 Coastline 27 7.41 35.3 -5.37 33.33% -0.906 -0.7862
4 Leaf 27 14.81 41.93 -1.404 66.67% -0.097 -0.0255
4 Other 254 13.39 52.23 3.249 92.52% 1.037 0.9679
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 5.642 100.0% 0.272 -0.5299
4 Snake 1 0.0 54.0 3.437 100.0% 0.066 0.1917
4 Thematic 3187 7.38 66.0 3.498 85.88% 1.142 0.1453
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7192 9.39 50.15 1.273 80.31% 0.114 0.122
5 Archipelago 1 0.0 13.0 -14.613 0.0% -0.903 0.2566
5 Other 67 25.37 49.81 2.748 91.04% 0.676 0.2154
5 Thematic 63 4.76 78.75 10.349 98.41% 2.613 0.2211
6 Other 2 0.0 56.5 7.163 100.0% 0.132 -0.0455

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1472 41.47 -2.465 57.88% -0.623 1.4461
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1206 44.09 -1.388 59.7% -0.515 1.3978
All Things Weaken 619 39.7 -3.096 56.87% -0.776 1.3836
Back Against the Wall 1196 42.73 -1.901 58.95% -0.557 1.5297
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1263 37.62 -4.329 55.03% -0.795 1.4275
Downward Spiral 2867 40.15 -2.435 61.91% -0.582 1.4395
Erosion of Will 1309 39.92 -3.257 54.62% -0.763 1.4445
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 351 44.99 -0.5 71.79% -0.144 0.5342
Memory Fades to Dust 2740 38.29 -3.25 58.18% -0.776 1.4393
Power Corrodes the Spirit 588 42.5 -1.933 62.93% -0.456 1.5647
Promising Farmlands 1317 36.71 -4.716 49.73% -1.022 1.186
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 265 45.24 -0.174 76.98% 0.157 0.5689
Thriving Communities 582 36.95 -4.723 48.28% -1.13 0.9577
Tipping Point 683 39.47 -3.528 56.08% -0.706 1.5185
Unnatural Proliferation 616 40.01 -2.875 55.84% -0.787 1.2933
Untended Land Crumbles 613 40.96 -2.449 63.46% -0.488 1.6145

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 26818 16.25% 45.03 0.18 76.61% 0.869 0.1809
B 26090 15.76% 44.69 -0.003 78.14% 0.742 -0.0412
C 26657 13.93% 44.22 -0.104 78.77% 0.822 -0.1907
D 20979 15.09% 42.33 -0.944 77.26% 0.713 -0.0643
E 6521 17.86% 46.95 0.578 76.18% 0.779 -0.1156
F 11096 17.6% 46.97 0.625 76.47% 0.845 0.0045
G 10405 18.65% 44.49 -0.508 72.65% 0.621 -0.2109
H 10064 16.22% 45.34 -0.009 75.19% 0.712 -0.1273
East 6580 13.3% 56.85 2.391 77.57% 0.801 0.2246
Northeast 6223 14.7% 54.81 1.856 74.53% 0.622 0.097
Northwest 5465 15.07% 55.79 2.025 75.85% 0.812 0.2166
Southeast 1319 7.87% 55.65 1.876 85.6% 1.033 0.4042
Southwest 1284 10.46% 51.91 -0.788 81.31% 0.377 0.1781
West 6475 12.48% 56.79 2.406 77.27% 0.756 0.4289

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1077 0.0% 34.41 -4.978 84.49% -0.616 1.4369
Not Using Events or Tokens 9764 17.74% 39.68 -1.374 69.71% -0.257 -0.0418
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5835 5.18% 58.62 4.455 89.89% 1.257 0.5704
Start of Game Growth 8891 5.41% 56.95 3.226 87.12% -0.011 -0.48
Unlimited Undo 8843 13.89% 50.23 1.584 85.41% 0.476 0.0534
Using Tokens but Not Events 14295 13.12% 43.79 -0.453 86.57% 0.486 0.435

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 34602 22.37 51.42%
II 45307 30.88 86.3%
III 15401 34.39 93.03%
IV 3305 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.39 Win Model: -0.813
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 61446 21.76% 43.76 73.98%
2 18208 12.49% 42.25 77.74%
3 8193 15.91% 44.49 73.98%
4 10767 8.84% 55.01 82.21%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13406
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11022
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29881
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2512
Lose: Invader deck ran out 389
Lose: Adversary condition 3753
Win: Sacrifice victory 189
Lose: Scenario condition 16451
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3375
Lose: Spirit destroyed 121

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)