Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 59 3.39% 26.37 -4.075 59.32% -0.689 -0.2024
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 52 7.69% 33.65 1.79 71.15% 0.099 0.1189
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 54 14.81% 33.31 -1.94 61.11% -0.482 -0.3283
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 87 11.49% 33.15 -0.465 55.17% -0.809 -0.6811
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 87 22.99% 36.28 0.938 48.28% -1.007 -0.5039
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 48 29.17% 46.0 6.97 54.17% -0.333 0.6404
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 198 48.48% 29.08 -2.442 26.26% -2.241 -0.3233
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1030 9.22% 32.82 -4.14 75.05% -0.226 0.2478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 664 11.23% 32.49 -3.973 61.3% -1.232 -0.9407
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1054 13.19% 42.23 2.865 70.11% -0.407 0.1359
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1000 18.45% 43.33 -2.228 64.2% -1.093 -0.1468
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 660 26.52% 49.1 -0.823 60.0% -1.783 -0.5042
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 248 28.63% 40.75 6.694 37.9% -0.347 1.1206
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3205 28.58% 47.19 -2.349 42.93% -1.989 -0.1916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2551 8.58% 29.28 -3.451 81.3% 0.047 0.2695
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2679 10.94% 35.67 0.936 78.01% 0.232 0.1991
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3882 9.98% 45.55 1.832 84.21% -0.202 -0.1893
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4416 13.11% 49.94 3.706 80.64% -0.238 0.0036
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2962 13.35% 53.38 4.91 85.65% -0.085 0.1105
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2259 14.86% 59.98 11.564 86.45% 0.457 0.8355
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5253 35.47% 53.47 5.922 66.38% -0.865 0.3759
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2801 10.46% 30.89 -4.429 81.72% -0.181 0.1284
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2001 11.42% 35.66 -2.757 73.31% -0.728 -0.4077
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2833 14.88% 37.75 0.068 70.95% -0.363 0.1157
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2763 19.78% 40.3 -0.775 57.87% -1.271 -0.2313
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8472 8.04% 51.57 3.912 77.62% -0.815 0.1849
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1613 18.01% 50.69 0.471 56.6% -2.021 -0.5107
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20715 21.51% 53.65 3.501 54.02% -1.394 0.4488
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1616 12.1% 33.11 -8.823 79.08% -1.411 -1.034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1283 22.71% 32.99 -6.523 70.38% -1.145 -0.2677
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1794 18.5% 40.01 1.897 65.11% -0.7 0.4838
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1749 21.57% 48.74 3.195 69.35% -0.855 0.2854
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1373 18.16% 52.05 7.496 66.93% -0.372 0.938
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2917 33.18% 62.44 9.873 81.11% -0.442 0.8303
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11113 27.51% 60.9 6.135 66.8% -0.87 0.5228
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 271 12.92% 28.14 -5.401 67.53% -0.677 -0.3573
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 343 12.83% 29.52 -3.781 56.56% -0.875 -0.3863
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 420 18.33% 32.76 -1.501 56.67% -0.57 -0.1644
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 612 18.66% 40.55 0.922 56.05% -0.585 -0.5571
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 636 22.8% 46.53 -0.543 68.55% -1.162 -0.656
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2058 29.11% 49.08 4.94 62.93% -0.537 -0.0798
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2935 36.8% 43.92 -0.117 39.73% -2.144 -1.0644
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2298 8.5% 28.32 -7.821 76.85% -1.155 -0.9118
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2184 9.69% 38.29 2.32 75.23% 0.13 0.1643
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2314 18.27% 33.09 -2.836 67.89% -0.502 -0.2609
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2353 23.91% 41.12 -0.241 71.95% -0.753 -0.5026
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1353 23.81% 41.84 -5.837 66.37% -1.379 -0.6248
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 904 27.62% 46.55 -3.463 68.25% -1.446 -0.3476
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9341 23.32% 53.04 5.464 72.25% -0.456 0.4403
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 820 10.74% 29.86 -5.031 78.17% -0.466 -0.2255
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 678 22.49% 33.34 -4.453 67.26% -0.836 -0.0814
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 850 24.0% 39.52 -7.662 75.06% -1.747 -1.3793
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 997 34.8% 45.54 -0.579 72.12% -0.78 0.3901
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 815 26.5% 51.32 3.293 71.78% -0.766 0.1905
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 655 30.84% 55.4 11.121 65.5% -0.078 1.5032
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2997 44.49% 48.1 -3.987 41.68% -2.029 -0.5131

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 81354 21.29 42.66 71.01% 0.222 0.7484 -0.349
1 Thematic 13316 22.6 44.29 62.86% 0.039 0.8933 -0.643
2 Archipelago 161 28.57 36.57 46.58% -0.513 0.5416 -1.063
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10823 8.22 40.01 77.7% -0.067 0.2106 -0.18
2 Coastline 2268 21.94 38.57 64.55% 0.362 0.465 -1.208
2 Fragment 350 17.05 37.81 72.29% 0.609 0.6217 -0.053
2 Heart 209 18.27 37.24 75.6% -0.814 -0.7026 -0.873
2 Opposite Shores 6912 14.42 41.7 77.49% 0.645 0.9816 -0.485
2 Thematic 3319 12.11 49.6 64.36% 0.064 0.7535 0.178
2 Top to Top 280 12.18 39.77 72.86% -0.081 0.1613 -0.005
3 Archipelago 73 28.77 57.82 80.82% 0.829 0.1085 0.311
3 Coastline 42 7.32 40.67 73.81% 0.159 -0.1812 0.995
3 Other 425 7.76 26.88 55.29% 0.287 -0.3147 -0.041
3 Round (Default) 11168 17.72 44.73 71.79% 0.223 0.229 -0.244
3 Sunrise 55 12.73 60.22 85.45% 0.925
3 Thematic 543 18.45 42.46 69.61% -1.266 -1.1819 0.32
4 Archipelago 67 20.9 43.93 61.19% -0.976
4 Coastline 7 0.0 57.0 71.43% 0.068
4 Leaf 35 17.14 40.86 60.0% -0.91
4 Other 271 14.76 54.15 92.62% 1.239 0.6196 1.122
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 3047 9.17 62.39 81.92% -0.259 0.0088 0.681
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9192 9.1 49.85 79.25% -0.429 -0.2646 0.159
5 Archipelago 15 13.33 42.93 60.0% 0.049 -0.8289 0.47
5 Coastline 1 0.0 63.0 100.0% 0.241
5 Other 280 17.14 43.04 69.29% -0.062 -0.4479 0.421
5 Thematic 105 5.71 69.34 81.9% -0.137 -0.934 1.863
6 Archipelago 444 2.48 66.92 77.93% -0.214 -1.3236 -1.003
6 Coastline 2 0.0 15.5 50.0%
6 Other 237 1.27 46.71 67.09% -0.02 -0.0501 -0.949
6 Star 157 5.1 33.4 59.87% -0.788 -0.8053 -0.788
6 Thematic 1167 3.17 47.21 58.1% 0.259 0.3615 0.111
6 Two Centers (Default) 693 2.74 36.43 57.86% -1.483 -0.9185 -1.825
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 49.33 33.33% 0.353 0.2781 0.922
7 Other 7 0.0 21.71 28.57% -0.344

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1826 42.14 58.05% -0.218 0.0311 -0.426
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1539 44.5 59.52% 1.307 1.1889 -0.378
All Things Weaken 1384 40.65 54.41% -0.094 0.2433 -0.63
Attenuated Essence 296 40.29 56.76% -0.42 -0.3928 -0.421
Back Against the Wall 1491 42.77 56.2% 0.308 0.3086 -0.477
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 228 39.54 53.07% 0.301 0.5178 -0.604
Burn Brightest Before the End 195 38.58 44.1% -0.668 -0.6864 -0.794
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1690 37.73 52.01% -0.408 -0.0149 -0.845
Downward Spiral 3394 38.84 59.02% 0.072 0.1802 -0.425
Erosion of Will 1675 39.99 53.73% -0.131 0.2214 -0.656
Intensifying Exploitation 253 38.75 53.75% -0.385 -0.1394 -0.533
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 757 44.78 69.09% 0.701 0.1773 -0.153
Memory Fades to Dust 3272 38.41 56.3% -0.843 -0.5956 -0.535
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1324 42.28 58.31% -0.032 0.19 -0.443
Promising Farmlands 1617 36.9 46.94% -0.493 -0.2097 -0.946
Shattered Fragments of Power 213 40.84 49.3% -0.087 -0.0099 -0.673
Slow Dissolution of Will 271 36.51 44.65% -0.351 0.0464 -0.93
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 528 47.11 76.33% 1.1 0.4043 0.138
The Border of Life and Death 97 39.02 60.82% 0.5 -0.1011 -0.356
Thriving Communities 1299 37.84 46.5% -0.245 0.1117 -0.852
Thriving Crops 144 35.42 48.61% -0.45 -0.6461 -0.643
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -0.962
Unnatural Proliferation 1354 40.2 51.62% -0.293 -0.1311 -0.689
Untended Land Crumbles 1343 41.54 57.26% 1.061 1.2925 -0.492

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 34750 15.76% 44.45 74.01% -0.396 0.6087 -0.651
B 35359 15.6% 44.52 74.83% -0.442 0.478 -0.457
C 35352 13.74% 43.83 75.45% -0.425 0.3097 -0.547
D 25806 15.46% 41.55 72.67% -0.506 0.4717 -0.689
E 16484 15.99% 44.16 70.87% -0.606 0.2136 -0.577
F 21258 17.33% 44.78 72.15% -0.428 0.4461 -0.656
G 19358 18.31% 43.45 70.19% -0.698 0.1114 -0.837
H 19580 15.41% 44.86 72.23% -0.426 0.3887 -0.601
East 14963 15.59% 49.8 67.08% -0.522 0.3809 -0.58
Northeast 9220 15.02% 50.93 66.55% -0.605 0.2031 -0.692
Northwest 7223 15.03% 51.5 68.32% -0.348 0.5516 -0.522
Southeast 4052 8.75% 48.98 68.07% -0.52 0.331 -0.657
Southwest 3767 11.31% 45.91 65.49% -1.013 0.363 -1.254
West 12870 15.69% 49.39 67.79% -0.61 0.3452 -0.614

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1177 0.0% 32.81 80.8% -0.783 -0.075 -0.431
Not Using Events or Tokens 14511 16.17% 36.91 65.3% 0.085 0.4528 -0.119
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9880 5.42% 58.69 83.26% 0.427 -0.1572 0.679
Start of Game Growth 14016 5.89% 56.8 81.23% 0.816 0.3025 -0.466
Unlimited Undo 12315 13.47% 47.41 79.49% -0.188 -0.297 0.43
Using Tokens but Not Events 21574 10.71% 45.18 81.73% 0.504 0.4787 0.418

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 56538 13.33 44.98%
II 64467 30.1 85.42%
III 21559 34.83 93.06%
IV 4545 38.67 99.98%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.288 Win Model: 0.604
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 95601 21.49% 42.8 69.69%
2 23755 11.95% 41.91 74.99%
3 12149 17.34% 44.16 71.45%
4 12694 9.21% 53.1 80.14%
5 246 11.38% 38.13 55.28%
6 2663 2.97% 47.06 62.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25404
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19975
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 54945
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4493
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9228
Lose: Invader deck ran out 443
Lose: Adversary condition 5146
Win: Sacrifice victory 284
Lose: Scenario condition 22105
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4910
Lose: Spirit destroyed 176

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)