Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 119 3.36% 24.15 -0.401 55.46% 0.135 0.4643
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 115 6.09% 32.22 -4.65 68.7% -0.447 -0.4316
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 136 17.65% 34.85 -3.075 58.82% -0.511 -0.135
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 157 14.65% 33.29 -6.122 55.41% -1.074 -0.7007
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 180 21.11% 37.24 1.842 53.89% -0.565 0.2053
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 212 26.89% 42.99 6.756 50.47% -0.427 0.6625
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 435 40.46% 31.37 -5.355 28.28% -1.998 0.0839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1111 9.09% 32.4 -0.861 73.9% -0.046 0.5372
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 749 10.89% 31.63 -2.307 58.61% -0.561 -0.6039
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1133 12.97% 41.86 -2.578 68.93% -0.934 -0.3495
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1102 18.37% 42.51 0.532 62.16% -0.763 0.0383
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 712 26.12% 48.39 -2.332 59.13% -1.692 -0.3508
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 286 27.62% 40.51 1.677 38.46% -0.968 0.5612
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3459 27.87% 46.96 -0.398 42.87% -1.349 0.3843
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2682 8.56% 28.89 -4.541 79.9% -0.361 -0.0756
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2904 11.0% 35.51 -1.167 77.58% 0.129 0.1796
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4331 9.86% 45.57 4.432 83.91% 0.489 0.5271
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4755 13.11% 49.43 3.307 79.31% -0.22 0.1032
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3120 13.48% 53.09 7.339 84.74% 0.526 0.7117
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2602 14.17% 60.39 12.138 87.16% 0.735 1.1289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5950 35.38% 52.7 1.35 64.39% -1.208 0.1241
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3094 10.79% 31.2 -3.798 81.22% -0.07 0.1895
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2175 11.19% 35.04 -0.812 72.18% -0.137 0.1404
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2992 14.92% 37.48 -2.189 70.39% -0.586 -0.0943
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3030 19.22% 40.23 -0.119 57.03% -0.593 0.7049
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9090 8.14% 51.12 -2.812 76.77% -1.262 -0.1762
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1688 18.04% 50.11 -3.6 55.81% -1.665 -0.2844
The Kingdom of England 6 11 22803 21.19% 52.73 3.923 53.11% -1.095 0.839
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1705 12.35% 32.65 -2.253 77.95% 0.083 0.3609
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1381 22.13% 32.66 -3.114 69.51% -0.353 0.4514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1907 18.56% 39.74 3.662 64.29% 0.174 1.0993
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1872 21.57% 48.2 7.943 68.11% 0.467 1.7214
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1468 18.14% 51.98 6.627 66.89% -0.402 0.9285
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3140 32.36% 62.19 7.676 80.25% -0.084 0.6344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11999 27.27% 59.86 1.794 65.36% -1.148 0.1367
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 312 11.54% 27.31 -7.888 65.71% -0.725 -0.6728
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 411 12.41% 28.32 -2.391 53.77% 0.085 0.549
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 540 17.22% 33.1 0.486 56.85% -0.259 0.3021
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 723 17.04% 41.01 -0.105 57.68% -0.735 -0.6409
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 737 21.57% 46.42 -0.525 67.57% -1.097 -0.3582
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2402 29.27% 48.86 5.416 61.95% -0.542 0.0678
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3754 33.77% 43.51 3.57 40.52% -1.137 0.0595
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2415 8.51% 27.98 -5.794 75.65% -0.662 -0.4047
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2440 9.21% 39.21 1.306 74.47% -0.733 -0.6095
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2468 18.18% 33.07 -0.231 67.3% -0.38 -0.1613
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2544 23.78% 40.74 1.882 71.07% -0.091 0.1768
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1477 23.64% 41.35 1.081 65.34% -0.422 0.0881
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1118 24.01% 46.99 5.917 70.39% 0.188 0.8309
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10225 23.15% 52.71 5.891 71.82% 0.052 0.72
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 894 10.19% 29.69 -3.979 77.18% -0.178 0.2009
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 754 21.94% 32.61 -5.017 66.18% -0.735 0.005
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 904 23.89% 39.45 6.637 74.67% 0.869 1.2595
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1064 34.68% 44.99 4.948 70.68% -0.109 0.7163
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 880 27.05% 51.0 15.799 71.48% 0.519 1.2706
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 764 30.5% 54.26 3.162 64.14% -1.156 0.7214
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3242 43.94% 47.48 1.571 41.18% -1.645 -0.0545

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 89496 21.07 42.19 69.89% 0.49 0.8826 0.024
1 Thematic 14299 22.62 43.84 62.06% 0.395 1.1323 -0.76
2 Archipelago 174 28.74 36.37 47.13% 0.63 0.4938 -0.471
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11541 8.25 39.48 76.8% -0.293 -0.03 -0.533
2 Coastline 2492 21.01 38.41 64.73% -0.009 0.0876 -0.265
2 Fragment 379 16.8 37.03 72.3% 0.275 0.766 0.968
2 Heart 247 16.26 36.54 74.09% 0.302 0.0337 1.148
2 Opposite Shores 7719 13.97 41.37 77.04% 0.094 0.3059 -0.038
2 Thematic 3625 11.98 49.01 62.65% -0.206 0.3514 -0.017
2 Top to Top 315 12.13 39.12 71.43% 0.328 0.2044 -0.624
3 Archipelago 85 24.71 56.41 81.18% 0.208 0.6337 0.517
3 Coastline 45 6.82 38.16 68.89% 0.072 -0.8019 0.651
3 Other 445 8.31 27.33 54.38% 0.967 0.7551 -0.624
3 Round (Default) 12357 17.34 44.04 70.44% -0.693 -0.4806 -0.156
3 Sunrise 58 12.07 58.31 84.48% -0.22
3 Thematic 620 19.39 40.74 66.45% 0.012 -0.1723 -1.081
4 Archipelago 75 18.67 43.25 62.67% 0.36 -0.2721 0.492
4 Coastline 7 0.0 57.0 71.43% 0.406
4 Leaf 36 16.67 40.72 58.33% -0.265
4 Other 277 14.8 53.66 92.06% -0.454 -0.8536 -0.09
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 3208 9.97 61.3 80.3% 0.269 0.4581 -0.036
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9803 9.25 49.42 78.83% -0.541 -0.2773 0.056
5 Archipelago 15 13.33 42.93 60.0% 0.19
5 Coastline 2 0.0 52.0 50.0% 0.076 -0.7603 -0.302
5 Other 316 17.09 43.44 69.3% 0.502 0.2416 1.814
5 Thematic 108 5.56 68.58 81.48% -0.355 -0.5614 0.25
6 Archipelago 568 2.11 68.68 79.93% 0.213 -0.5176 0.21
6 Coastline 2 0.0 15.5 50.0%
6 Other 265 2.26 44.62 64.53% 0.571 0.5716 -1.059
6 Star 209 5.74 33.87 56.46% -0.397
6 Thematic 1357 3.17 48.24 58.66% -0.095 0.1675 0.306
6 Two Centers (Default) 876 2.63 33.68 53.31% -1.878 -0.7984 -1.942
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 49.33 33.33%
7 Other 9 0.0 20.89 33.33% 0.144 0.1829 0.821

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1922 42.11 58.06% -0.096 -0.0234 -0.103
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1623 44.36 59.15% -0.43 -0.4764 -0.09
All Things Weaken 1489 40.54 54.06% 0.131 0.4997 -0.109
Attenuated Essence 386 39.84 55.7% -0.656 -0.6279 0.32
Back Against the Wall 1578 42.47 55.83% -0.478 -0.5591 -0.24
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 314 39.21 52.23% 0.078 0.2807 0.027
Burn Brightest Before the End 253 39.02 47.43% 0.09 0.1906 0.112
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1791 37.58 52.09% 0.093 0.4547 -0.148
Downward Spiral 3632 38.41 58.37% -0.633 -0.4307 -0.518
Erosion of Will 1768 40.07 53.79% 0.263 0.5887 -0.05
Intensifying Exploitation 350 37.33 52.57% -0.787 -0.469 -0.5
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 820 44.4 67.8% -0.149 -0.6684 -0.013
Memory Fades to Dust 3505 37.93 55.44% -0.748 -0.472 -0.721
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1429 41.82 57.45% 0.045 0.2432 -0.292
Promising Farmlands 1737 36.56 46.75% -0.508 -0.1368 -0.213
Shattered Fragments of Power 279 39.98 51.61% -0.098 0.0941 0.432
Slow Dissolution of Will 358 37.59 46.65% -0.325 0.0506 -0.328
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 570 47.03 75.44% -0.353 -0.9363 0.288
The Border of Life and Death 128 38.55 58.59% 0.927 0.2667 -0.034
Thriving Communities 1423 37.68 46.24% -0.691 -0.47 -0.612
Thriving Crops 195 33.49 44.62% -0.882 -0.9892 -0.755
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14%
Unnatural Proliferation 1473 39.75 51.19% -0.145 -0.0484 -0.728
Untended Land Crumbles 1452 41.14 56.75% -0.334 -0.1341 -0.284

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 38485 15.52% 44.2 73.25% 0.092 0.9998 -0.075
B 38662 15.39% 44.08 73.97% -0.046 0.7837 0.151
C 38449 13.6% 43.5 74.61% -0.263 0.4885 -0.045
D 28496 15.38% 40.81 70.82% -0.53 0.3414 -0.417
E 18559 15.68% 43.34 69.54% 0.004 0.7071 -0.103
F 23201 17.16% 44.01 70.97% -0.051 0.7608 -0.496
G 21191 18.0% 42.96 69.2% -0.087 0.7338 -0.226
H 21474 15.22% 44.26 71.21% -0.313 0.4456 -0.362
East 16258 15.75% 49.14 65.75% -0.757 0.1636 -0.566
Northeast 10024 15.08% 50.33 65.34% -0.144 0.5793 0.259
Northwest 7787 14.91% 50.97 67.38% -0.776 0.2077 -0.334
Southeast 4527 9.31% 48.61 66.67% -0.254 0.5978 -0.342
Southwest 4179 11.6% 45.79 64.44% -0.29 0.9867 -0.324
West 13867 15.84% 48.82 66.69% -0.208 0.483 0.214

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1264 0.0% 32.76 79.19% -1.769 -0.8602 -0.277
Not Using Events or Tokens 15843 16.07% 36.29 64.09% 0.148 0.5363 0.277
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10964 5.36% 58.04 81.95% -0.354 -1.0776 -0.35
Start of Game Growth 15380 5.82% 56.35 80.2% 1.291 0.8033 0.866
Unlimited Undo 13477 13.27% 47.45 78.7% 0.427 0.5077 0.603
Using Tokens but Not Events 23521 10.84% 45.45 80.7% -0.051 -0.0948 0.266

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 63169 12.37 43.43%
II 69546 29.93 85.15%
III 23431 34.92 93.02%
IV 4975 38.86 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.225 Win Model: 0.429
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 104854 21.29% 42.32 68.63%
2 25854 11.8% 41.51 74.25%
3 13414 17.04% 43.48 70.06%
4 13471 9.48% 52.48 79.44%
5 346 9.83% 43.07 55.49%
6 3181 3.05% 46.57 61.96%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 27408
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21699
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 59089
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4922
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 12248
Lose: Invader deck ran out 491
Lose: Adversary condition 5484
Win: Sacrifice victory 300
Lose: Scenario condition 24041
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5257
Lose: Spirit destroyed 182

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-25 23:57:52 (Pacific Time)