Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 92 3.26% 23.91 -7.858 55.43% -0.889 -0.4857
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 75 6.67% 33.67 -2.135 70.67% -0.068 -0.0023
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 108 14.81% 35.27 -3.257 61.11% -0.935 -0.5415
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 131 12.98% 33.0 -2.812 54.96% -0.531 -0.3398
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 141 22.7% 35.96 -6.776 51.06% -1.381 -0.6152
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 158 29.11% 42.77 5.266 49.37% -0.684 0.4836
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 324 45.37% 30.65 0.463 27.78% -1.691 0.2101
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1083 9.23% 32.59 -6.564 74.42% -0.59 -0.2095
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 720 10.91% 31.91 -7.351 59.17% -1.463 -1.0667
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1085 12.9% 42.13 1.689 69.77% -0.153 0.6279
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1061 18.61% 43.02 -1.552 63.34% -1.131 -0.0813
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 684 26.17% 48.55 7.256 59.36% 0.265 1.7486
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 274 28.47% 40.73 2.436 39.05% -0.757 0.838
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3363 28.07% 47.12 3.039 42.88% -1.541 0.1911
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2631 8.61% 28.99 -3.767 80.24% 0.19 0.4495
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2804 10.92% 35.61 -1.339 77.82% 0.045 0.0158
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4073 9.88% 45.51 4.789 83.89% 0.819 0.786
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4619 13.0% 49.55 1.881 79.71% 0.086 0.5298
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3054 13.55% 53.12 3.674 84.94% -0.235 0.019
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2483 14.49% 60.18 12.032 86.87% 1.372 1.9248
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5622 35.28% 53.12 5.701 65.62% -0.74 0.5431
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2888 10.62% 30.58 -0.631 80.85% 0.18 0.4769
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2094 11.1% 35.24 -2.136 72.49% -0.165 0.3247
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2925 14.97% 37.47 1.775 70.36% 0.317 0.8553
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2933 19.35% 40.23 -0.395 57.21% -0.946 0.3094
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8985 8.11% 51.26 4.143 76.99% -0.292 0.697
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1650 18.03% 50.59 0.401 56.42% -1.286 0.2726
The Kingdom of England 6 11 21757 21.24% 53.13 3.802 53.48% -1.014 0.867
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1665 12.28% 32.96 -4.794 78.62% -0.315 0.1682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1340 22.34% 32.82 -4.593 69.78% -0.51 0.2191
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1834 18.59% 39.84 -6.184 64.72% -1.398 -0.2678
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1831 21.66% 48.42 -2.042 68.54% -1.427 -0.0413
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1428 18.16% 52.07 7.732 67.02% 0.321 1.7162
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3044 32.72% 62.42 8.947 80.78% 0.17 1.2665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11565 27.27% 60.49 7.783 66.36% -0.406 0.9892
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 294 12.24% 27.51 -4.955 65.99% -0.277 -0.2287
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 373 12.87% 28.75 -6.978 54.96% -1.274 -1.027
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 482 17.22% 32.79 0.178 56.64% -0.085 0.4125
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 663 17.98% 41.22 5.746 57.77% 0.359 0.5551
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 699 22.03% 46.9 4.308 68.53% -0.391 0.2664
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2257 29.82% 48.97 5.717 62.38% -0.352 0.0869
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3302 35.19% 43.62 2.842 40.01% -1.227 -0.0658
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2358 8.46% 28.14 -6.751 76.25% -0.434 -0.3089
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2320 9.47% 38.7 -0.187 74.74% -0.327 -0.1928
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2397 18.22% 33.11 -1.281 67.71% -0.225 0.053
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2457 24.08% 40.89 3.027 71.35% 0.339 0.6491
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1422 23.64% 41.81 0.836 66.24% -0.215 0.5607
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 996 26.06% 47.02 2.622 69.58% -0.477 0.4331
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9810 23.19% 52.93 6.31 72.11% 0.022 0.9765
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 866 10.4% 29.77 -1.576 77.48% 0.278 0.3492
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 708 22.38% 33.03 -7.217 67.09% -0.969 -0.2327
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 877 24.29% 39.44 -1.403 74.69% -0.504 -0.0031
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1038 34.87% 45.19 0.652 71.19% -0.366 0.6793
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 846 26.6% 51.1 5.781 71.39% -0.065 0.7685
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 720 30.69% 55.04 5.155 65.14% -0.763 0.9253
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3150 44.17% 47.79 3.622 41.37% -1.575 -0.1129

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 85721 21.11 42.39 70.34% -0.13 0.3517 -0.44
1 Thematic 13798 22.62 44.09 62.51% -0.5 0.3487 -0.711
2 Archipelago 172 29.07 36.42 46.51% -0.663 0.0354 -1.18
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11267 8.27 39.74 77.15% -0.258 0.0455 -0.267
2 Coastline 2378 21.43 38.53 64.72% -0.189 -0.0582 -1.278
2 Fragment 372 17.12 36.98 71.77% -0.269 -0.2831 0.013
2 Heart 229 17.11 36.93 74.24% 1.069 0.8289 -0.365
2 Opposite Shores 7422 14.15 41.55 77.31% 0.07 0.3319 -0.569
2 Thematic 3528 12.11 49.2 63.15% -0.369 0.4168 0.083
2 Top to Top 297 12.15 39.16 71.38% -0.666 -0.5583 -0.094
3 Archipelago 80 26.25 57.61 81.25% 0.299
3 Coastline 44 6.98 38.82 70.45% -0.557 -1.0476 1.002
3 Other 439 7.74 27.27 54.9% 1.021 0.4064 -0.378
3 Round (Default) 11821 17.56 44.34 70.98% -0.569 -0.5785 -0.337
3 Sunrise 56 12.5 59.14 83.93% -0.301 -0.4051 0.715
3 Thematic 579 18.34 41.53 67.01% -0.094 0.1752 -0.007
4 Archipelago 70 20.0 43.46 61.43% -0.395 -1.3513 -1.018
4 Coastline 7 0.0 57.0 71.43% 0.15 -0.2504 0.129
4 Leaf 36 16.67 40.72 58.33% -0.977
4 Other 274 14.6 54.09 92.7% 0.885 0.0115 1.047
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 49.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 3176 10.0 61.57 80.67% 0.459 0.7905 0.619
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9542 9.19 49.61 78.94% 0.126 0.0426 0.131
5 Archipelago 15 13.33 42.93 60.0% 0.244 -0.8839 0.447
5 Coastline 2 0.0 52.0 50.0% -0.044
5 Other 304 17.43 43.85 70.07% 0.202 -0.5429 0.566
5 Thematic 107 5.61 68.92 82.24% 0.895 0.3813 1.953
6 Archipelago 503 2.19 68.24 79.52% 0.612 -0.2228 -0.897
6 Coastline 2 0.0 15.5 50.0%
6 Other 252 2.38 45.92 65.08% -0.897 -0.6666 -0.922
6 Star 176 5.11 33.97 60.8% -0.279 0.0086 -0.642
6 Thematic 1274 3.22 47.64 58.24% -1.035 -0.6559 0.286
6 Two Centers (Default) 792 2.78 35.02 55.05% -0.442 -0.0112 -1.997
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 49.33 33.33% 0.894
7 Other 8 0.0 19.0 25.0% 0.286 0.4133 0.102

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1884 42.24 58.33% 0.207 0.3836 -0.392
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1591 44.43 59.27% -0.086 -0.1901 -0.358
All Things Weaken 1455 40.62 54.3% 0.432 0.661 -0.592
Attenuated Essence 344 40.42 57.27% 0.586 0.6205 -0.336
Back Against the Wall 1531 42.73 56.3% 0.615 0.5936 -0.444
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 274 39.43 52.19% 0.307 0.4121 -0.525
Burn Brightest Before the End 216 38.92 45.37% -0.365 -0.2249 -0.748
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1753 37.64 52.14% 0.168 0.5271 -0.805
Downward Spiral 3508 38.63 58.89% -0.291 -0.2079 -0.416
Erosion of Will 1733 40.2 53.84% -0.472 -0.2175 -0.624
Intensifying Exploitation 301 38.02 52.16% -0.295 -0.038 -0.57
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 793 44.56 67.97% 0.122 -0.2802 -0.176
Memory Fades to Dust 3371 38.25 56.13% -0.612 -0.333 -0.521
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1392 42.09 57.9% -0.075 0.1966 -0.426
Promising Farmlands 1681 36.68 46.88% -0.385 -0.0928 -0.898
Shattered Fragments of Power 252 40.3 50.4% -0.192 -0.0575 -0.55
Slow Dissolution of Will 321 37.87 47.35% -0.114 0.2475 -0.829
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 550 47.24 76.18% 0.722 0.1627 0.191
The Border of Life and Death 112 37.73 58.04% 0.119 -0.2471 -0.395
Thriving Communities 1364 37.97 46.7% -0.374 -0.0557 -0.818
Thriving Crops 174 34.65 45.98% -0.532 -0.6547 -0.739
Tipping Point 350 36.95 47.14% -0.932
Unnatural Proliferation 1412 40.1 51.56% -0.509 -0.4192 -0.684
Untended Land Crumbles 1399 41.44 57.18% 0.164 0.4323 -0.48

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 36828 15.56% 44.35 73.59% -0.091 1.0577 -0.601
B 37220 15.46% 44.28 74.36% -0.084 0.9846 -0.393
C 37096 13.66% 43.68 74.97% -0.081 0.8378 -0.503
D 27286 15.51% 41.18 71.73% -0.416 0.647 -0.664
E 17545 15.78% 43.67 70.02% -0.266 0.6879 -0.55
F 22329 17.21% 44.34 71.42% -0.197 0.806 -0.629
G 20354 18.16% 43.12 69.51% -0.492 0.4767 -0.783
H 20668 15.3% 44.53 71.6% -0.267 0.6915 -0.568
East 15696 15.7% 49.44 66.31% -0.183 0.8208 -0.557
Northeast 9686 15.08% 50.54 65.73% -0.474 0.3936 -0.666
Northwest 7573 14.95% 51.15 67.64% 0.32 1.1615 -0.511
Southeast 4324 9.26% 48.75 67.21% -0.068 0.9892 -0.698
Southwest 4010 11.6% 45.82 64.74% -0.828 0.5605 -1.253
West 13471 15.83% 49.08 67.06% -0.185 1.0285 -0.569

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1237 0.0% 32.7 79.63% -0.788 -0.0063 -0.439
Not Using Events or Tokens 15286 15.94% 36.49 64.58% -0.475 -0.1532 -0.114
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10421 5.35% 58.4 82.59% 0.421 -0.2206 0.625
Start of Game Growth 14758 5.83% 56.57 80.65% 0.869 0.2901 -0.377
Unlimited Undo 12963 13.3% 47.48 79.14% 0.552 0.3391 0.452
Using Tokens but Not Events 22688 10.65% 45.4 81.21% 0.231 0.1475 0.389

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 60280 12.75 44.03%
II 67275 30.01 85.33%
III 22537 34.87 93.07%
IV 4739 38.76 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.066 Win Model: 0.297
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 100511 21.34% 42.54 69.08%
2 25052 11.87% 41.7 74.51%
3 12853 17.19% 43.77 70.57%
4 13179 9.46% 52.73 79.6%
5 303 10.89% 42.22 56.77%
6 2932 3.07% 46.79 62.31%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 26519
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20884
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 57280
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4686
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 10873
Lose: Invader deck ran out 469
Lose: Adversary condition 5308
Win: Sacrifice victory 292
Lose: Scenario condition 23250
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5089
Lose: Spirit destroyed 181

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)