Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 25 32.0% 29.36 72.0% -0.326 0.1147 0.0
Blitz 0 188 39.78% 30.78 81.91% -0.326 -0.0699 -0.451
Dahan Insurrection 4 202 35.64% 58.32 74.75% 0.183 0.4853 0.575
Despicable Theft 2 128 57.03% 31.55 55.47% -0.708 -0.1637 -2.318
Elemental Invocation 1 130 56.15% 31.19 65.38% -0.535 0.0763 0.086
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1395 20.09% 45.68 73.98% -1.014 -0.8201 -0.275
Powers Long Forgotten 1 51 60.78% 32.22 72.55% -0.505 -0.2599 -0.754
Rituals of Terror 3 38 50.0% 42.13 73.68% -0.248 -1.0838 0.162
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 28 89.29% 32.79 64.29% -0.625 -0.0992 -0.62
Second Wave 0 716 42.43% 28.15 77.09% -0.345 0.2271 -0.24
The Great River 3 61 67.21% 29.03 45.9% -1.031 0.6076 -1.52
Varied Terrains 2 31 54.84% 41.1 64.52% -0.282 0.4638 -0.241
Ward the Shores 2 65 63.08% 31.49 55.38% -0.446 0.609 -0.659

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20305 51.54% 35.91 74.3% -0.297 0.149 0.27
1 Thematic 488 48.45% 34.68 69.47% -0.427 0.2045 -0.411
2 Archipelago 51 58.82% 33.76 72.55% 0.234 0.247 -0.218
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4346 50.8% 36.67 75.47% 0.018 0.3625 0.176
2 Coastline 551 51.72% 36.0 72.41% 0.513 0.5957 0.299
2 Fragment 145 57.24% 45.43 80.0% -0.494 -0.4055 1.274
2 Heart 54 59.26% 38.81 74.07% -0.565 0.0469 0.594
2 Opposite Shores 783 44.83% 33.29 77.14% 0.251 0.6294 -0.358
2 Thematic 227 49.12% 34.54 75.33% -0.107 0.4107 -0.023
2 Top to Top 131 57.69% 40.69 80.15% 0.317 0.4559 0.436
3 Archipelago 21 66.67% 37.86 66.67% 0.225 -0.7526 -0.512
3 Coastline 22 63.64% 29.73 50.0% -0.004 -0.6533 -0.869
3 Other 83 42.17% 31.08 83.13% 0.102 -0.9698 1.179
3 Round (Default) 2041 52.04% 35.54 74.52% 0.243 0.4356 -0.027
3 Sunrise 4 50.0% 43.5 100.0% 0.0 0.3199 0.0
3 Thematic 123 65.85% 32.91 44.72% -0.13 -0.376 -1.703
4 Archipelago 18 35.29% 39.22 94.44% 0.278 -0.1241 -0.329
4 Coastline 12 33.33% 33.5 75.0% -0.826 -0.6278 0.0
4 Leaf 12 66.67% 30.33 75.0% -1.054 -0.5628 -0.347
4 Other 69 31.88% 31.62 84.06% 0.071 -0.4698 0.866
4 Thematic 200 42.5% 44.23 79.5% 0.435 0.4412 0.297
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1117 37.96% 37.84 80.39% 0.016 -0.1246 -0.049
5 Archipelago 3 33.33% 55.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3169 0.466
5 Coastline 5 0.0% 34.2 100.0% 0.0 -0.2575 0.0
5 Other 128 41.27% 31.66 81.25% 0.488 0.3126 0.54
5 Thematic 13 53.85% 27.0 84.62% 0.028 -0.0066 0.852
6 Archipelago 6 0.0% 37.83 100.0% 0.052 -0.6993 0.0
6 Other 53 20.75% 33.51 86.79% 0.411 1.1078 0.692
6 Star 38 28.95% 39.92 84.21% -0.174 0.3589 -0.093
6 Thematic 176 32.0% 39.16 76.7% -0.66 -0.1614 -1.475
6 Two Centers (Default) 212 32.55% 37.36 83.49% 0.315 0.5406 -0.246
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 52.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.7346 -0.427
7 Other 6 50.0% 28.0 50.0% 0.801 0.0297 -0.848

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1121 33.85 55.49% -1.506 0.4039 -1.143
Aid From Lesser Spirits 955 36.4 59.16% -1.556 0.1289 -0.784
All Things Weaken 1229 34.58 56.14% -1.815 0.1848 -0.806
Back Against the Wall 990 34.45 54.04% -1.208 0.7396 -0.973
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1034 32.1 55.13% -1.675 0.3907 -1.037
Downward Spiral 1247 33.08 57.82% -1.751 0.2115 -1.012
Erosion of Will 1100 33.39 53.18% -2.017 0.0904 -1.057
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 477 39.62 87.0% -0.966 -0.3497 0.299
Memory Fades to Dust 1199 32.31 55.71% -2.034 0.023 -1.181
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1223 32.79 56.09% -2.018 -0.0394 -1.282
Promising Farmlands 1051 31.84 52.9% -2.118 -0.0159 -1.242
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 352 39.95 90.91% 0.401 0.7302 0.243
Thriving Communities 1216 31.37 54.93% -1.92 0.1291 -1.29
Unnatural Proliferation 1334 32.47 51.5% -1.693 0.251 -1.233
Untended Land Crumbles 1233 32.14 53.45% -1.953 0.073 -1.23

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6127 50.09% 35.74 74.59% -0.027 0.7321 -0.452
B 6605 48.7% 37.0 76.29% 0.101 0.7779 -0.337
C 7710 47.76% 35.97 77.02% 0.447 0.9726 -0.242
D 5709 46.8% 35.71 77.14% 0.087 0.8141 -0.41
E 5764 49.1% 36.5 74.9% 0.117 0.677 -0.298
F 5180 50.64% 35.87 75.29% 0.102 0.7914 -0.406
G 4805 48.96% 36.15 75.75% -0.054 0.6416 -0.465
H 4711 49.91% 35.56 75.29% 0.149 0.8093 -0.214
East 919 44.37% 38.32 72.69% 0.116 0.7958 -0.339
Northeast 596 43.68% 38.47 71.31% -0.772 -0.2025 -0.173
Northwest 458 43.74% 39.12 73.58% 0.026 0.8676 0.337
Southeast 463 42.3% 37.79 68.47% 0.173 0.6992 -0.609
Southwest 382 43.31% 37.16 75.65% -0.221 0.7201 -0.603
West 798 47.48% 37.74 72.43% -0.183 0.8171 -1.075

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 170 0.0% 24.38 82.35% -1.813 0.3062 0.315
Not Using Events or Tokens 4 50.0% 24.25 75.0% 0.25 0.4905 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 650 16.41% 38.65 91.85% 0.666 0.2971 0.692
Start of Game Growth 931 22.72% 40.8 88.29% 0.868 0.2459 0.259
Unlimited Undo 3191 41.11% 40.42 83.95% 0.103 -0.528 0.682
Using Tokens but Not Events 3028 26.5% 32.3 87.88% 0.063 0.1065 0.01

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 848 100.0% 36.42 100.0% 0.388 0.3401 0.242
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 300 100.0% 32.45 100.0% -0.669 -0.6054 -0.232
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 472 100.0% 33.9 100.0% -0.087 -0.3255 0.624
Downpour Drenches the World 219 100.0% 36.03 100.0% 0.051 0.4426 -0.185
Eyes Watch From the Trees 768 100.0% 37.66 100.0% 0.541 0.126 0.157
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 524 100.0% 33.72 100.0% 0.086 -0.5083 -0.085
Finder of Paths Unseen 77 100.0% 36.3 100.0% -0.334 0.0704 0.015
Fractured Days Split the Sky 349 100.0% 38.79 100.0% -0.733 -0.6903 -0.255
Heart of the Wildfire 494 100.0% 32.26 100.0% 0.47 0.799 -0.596
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1113 100.0% 39.19 100.0% 0.258 -0.3764 0.287
Lightning's Swift Strike 280 231.91% 29.07 146.07% -0.278 -0.0044 0.159
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 52 63.46% 40.69 78.85% 0.459 -0.3738 0.275
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 422 43.47% 43.0 81.28% 0.505 -0.067 0.631
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 217 46.76% 42.22 82.03% -0.074 -0.4987 0.82
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1245 100.0% 36.67 100.0% -0.112 -0.3185 0.115
Many Minds Move as One 507 100.0% 35.31 100.0% -0.27 -0.7825 0.406
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 642 100.0% 39.63 100.0% 0.066 -0.2167 -0.109
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 585 100.0% 35.89 100.0% 0.349 0.3811 -0.032
River Surges in Sunlight 696 138.68% 44.74 116.24% -0.091 -0.0852 -0.263
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 241 48.95% 33.09 67.63% -0.519 -0.075 -1.28
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 202 26.73% 54.27 82.67% 0.993 0.7502 0.312
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 569 100.0% 38.02 100.0% -0.241 -0.3845 0.172
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 75 384.21% 30.55 241.33% -0.196 0.3061 -0.217
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 28 53.57% 45.86 78.57% 0.193 0.3314 0.765
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 22 40.91% 33.68 86.36% -0.512 -0.589 0.12
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 261 50.96% 36.82 75.1% 0.305 0.3034 -0.305
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 131 52.31% 30.72 75.57% 0.496 0.5651 0.362
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 806 100.0% 39.78 100.0% 0.446 0.1845 0.781
Shifting Memory of Ages 841 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.039 -0.0175 -0.28
Shroud of Silent Mist 509 100.0% 30.16 100.0% -0.408 -0.1628 -0.564
Starlight Seeks its Form 1018 100.0% 36.01 100.0% -0.63 -0.8416 0.319
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 738 100.0% 33.67 100.0% -0.886 -1.0557 -0.341
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 452 100.0% 38.99 100.0% 0.286 0.3968 0.553
Thunderspeaker 666 100.0% 37.72 100.0% -0.202 -0.2978 -0.542
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 503 100.0% 33.83 100.0% -0.097 -0.1938 -0.069
Vital Strength of the Earth 233 138.2% 29.75 118.03% -0.473 0.4094 -0.754
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 61 42.62% 35.97 86.89% 0.973 1.3738 0.176
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 110 50.91% 29.95 69.09% 0.292 1.3344 -0.95
Volcano Looming High 683 100.0% 34.64 100.0% -0.334 -0.3492 -0.086

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Impersonate Authority 94.51%
Incite the Mob 95.46%
Overenthusiastic Arson 69.05%
Unexpected Tigers 68.3%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3043 22.62 24.32%
II 12234 31.05 67.03%
III 11166 34.62 85.9%
IV 5001 37.86 99.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 740
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9478
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8056
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4962
Lose: Invader deck ran out 255
Lose: Adversary condition 1969
Win: Sacrifice victory 101
Lose: Scenario condition 286
Win: Scenario condition 187
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5042
Lose: Spirit destroyed 368

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.352 Win Model: -0.242

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.143 Win Model: 0.035
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 20867 51.56% 35.89 74.12%
2 6330 50.56% 36.33 75.09%
3 2204 51.91% 35.3 74.95%
4 1440 38.23% 38.37 80.21%
5 114 36.61% 29.46 87.72%
6 489 30.74% 37.79 81.39%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)