Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 40.0% 29.5 73.33% 0.318 -0.1286 0.0
Blitz 0 232 40.61% 32.18 81.47% -0.072 0.3848 -0.397
Dahan Insurrection 4 238 36.55% 58.24 74.79% -0.616 -0.5958 0.599
Despicable Theft 2 141 55.32% 31.86 54.61% -1.374 -0.8613 -2.086
Elemental Invocation 1 152 53.29% 33.66 67.76% 0.056 0.7548 0.354
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1649 20.02% 45.98 71.98% -0.675 -0.6335 -0.324
Powers Long Forgotten 1 60 63.33% 33.38 71.67% 0.06 0.6218 -0.329
Rituals of Terror 3 43 48.78% 42.4 72.09% 0.163 -0.1244 0.335
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 35 88.57% 31.97 60.0% -0.387 0.0433 -1.103
Second Wave 0 869 40.35% 28.43 78.48% -0.08 0.3818 -0.295
The Great River 3 84 71.43% 27.63 40.48% -2.11 -0.3432 -1.628
Varied Terrains 2 46 60.87% 38.91 69.57% 0.019 0.8472 -0.307
Ward the Shores 2 82 59.76% 35.07 58.54% 0.211 0.9545 -0.295

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 23348 50.62% 35.63 74.37% 0.186 0.7357 0.249
1 Thematic 591 47.1% 35.33 66.67% -0.283 0.7148 -0.475
2 Archipelago 55 60.0% 33.31 70.91% -0.531 0.0869 -0.216
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5054 51.02% 36.64 75.01% 0.31 0.72 0.106
2 Coastline 636 52.36% 35.89 71.38% 0.359 0.4948 0.27
2 Fragment 170 55.88% 43.23 80.0% 0.617 0.6117 1.312
2 Heart 66 56.06% 36.67 72.73% -0.402 0.0728 0.614
2 Opposite Shores 905 44.97% 33.16 77.57% 0.381 0.7348 -0.212
2 Thematic 251 48.4% 34.98 75.7% -0.269 0.6601 0.12
2 Top to Top 146 54.48% 41.56 80.82% -0.192 -0.0652 0.547
3 Archipelago 30 50.0% 35.93 76.67% 0.215 0.3942 -0.492
3 Coastline 25 64.0% 29.96 56.0% 1.036 0.6194 -0.827
3 Other 93 43.01% 30.24 80.65% 0.091 -0.6278 1.2
3 Round (Default) 2372 52.03% 36.05 74.92% 0.167 0.3611 0.021
3 Sunrise 4 50.0% 43.5 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 128 64.06% 33.35 46.88% 0.392 0.4068 -1.856
4 Archipelago 23 27.27% 38.13 86.96% 0.012 -0.407 -0.342
4 Coastline 15 40.0% 29.87 66.67% -0.015 -0.0875 0.347
4 Leaf 17 58.82% 27.35 82.35% 0.062 -0.0341 -0.369
4 Other 71 30.99% 31.42 84.51% 0.219 -0.3972 0.861
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.073 0.028 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0% -0.783 -0.2171 0.0
4 Thematic 236 42.98% 43.08 79.24% -0.138 0.1451 0.032
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1260 38.59% 37.97 80.4% -0.118 0.0697 -0.122
5 Archipelago 5 60.0% 42.8 80.0% -0.283 -0.6663 0.471
5 Coastline 7 0.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.06 0.1669 0.0
5 Other 152 37.33% 31.51 81.58% -0.027 -0.6573 0.49
5 Thematic 16 56.25% 27.31 81.25% 0.255 -0.7191 0.935
6 Archipelago 7 0.0% 40.57 100.0% 0.02 -0.0503 0.0
6 Other 67 23.88% 32.61 86.57% -0.559 -0.8009 0.44
6 Star 45 28.89% 37.0 82.22% -0.347 0.1987 -0.385
6 Thematic 219 31.19% 40.74 76.71% 0.268 0.3136 -1.248
6 Two Centers (Default) 260 31.01% 37.47 82.31% -0.726 -0.2632 -0.224
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 52.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.221 -0.402
7 Other 7 42.86% 27.71 57.14% 0.016 -0.3441 -0.839

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1277 33.76 55.83% -1.734 -0.0037 -1.115
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1086 36.18 58.29% -1.784 -0.208 -0.755
All Things Weaken 1430 33.78 54.69% -2.353 -0.4754 -0.878
Attenuated Essence 1 21.0 100.0% 0.021 0.8754 0.0
Back Against the Wall 1116 34.48 54.3% -1.585 0.052 -0.966
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 68.0 100.0% 0.121 1.1296 0.0
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1180 31.89 54.24% -1.868 -0.025 -1.044
Downward Spiral 1405 32.62 57.01% -1.888 -0.1903 -1.113
Erosion of Will 1255 33.37 52.67% -2.151 -0.2513 -1.09
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 552 39.59 86.41% -0.389 0.111 0.096
Memory Fades to Dust 1363 32.22 55.69% -1.637 0.2385 -1.148
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1391 32.58 56.43% -1.534 0.1703 -1.242
Promising Farmlands 1225 31.98 52.98% -1.785 0.0909 -1.229
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 13.0 0.0% -0.762 0.394 0.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 384 40.13 90.63% 0.102 0.3126 0.24
Thriving Communities 1375 31.55 54.47% -1.751 0.1192 -1.327
Thriving Crops 1 48.0 100.0% 0.069 1.0237 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 1510 32.42 51.32% -2.155 -0.4013 -1.274
Untended Land Crumbles 1397 31.85 52.97% -1.97 -0.156 -1.271

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7068 49.61% 35.69 74.66% 0.129 0.9067 -0.409
B 7551 48.78% 36.91 76.04% -0.02 0.6831 -0.326
C 9030 46.66% 35.69 77.08% -0.049 0.4791 -0.319
D 6558 46.74% 35.58 77.02% -0.203 0.532 -0.409
E 6601 48.4% 36.47 75.41% -0.052 0.5318 -0.271
F 6028 50.38% 35.82 74.92% 0.089 0.7958 -0.411
G 5572 48.74% 36.05 75.47% -0.261 0.3805 -0.526
H 5459 49.23% 35.47 75.12% -0.071 0.5744 -0.231
East 1055 43.62% 38.57 73.08% 0.262 0.8537 -0.196
Northeast 684 42.94% 38.99 72.37% 0.179 0.8563 -0.306
Northwest 541 42.75% 39.63 74.31% 0.468 0.9056 0.069
Southeast 543 41.59% 38.25 69.24% 0.334 0.9972 -0.404
Southwest 479 41.72% 37.94 73.49% -0.649 0.5221 -0.899
West 975 45.88% 38.3 71.28% -0.507 0.3108 -0.756

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 210 0.0% 23.67 79.52% -3.272 -1.1968 0.33
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 66.67% 23.4 80.0% 0.443 0.6145 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 789 15.92% 39.95 92.65% 1.028 -0.0311 0.829
Start of Game Growth 1094 21.58% 41.68 89.31% 0.785 0.3632 0.347
Unlimited Undo 3670 41.22% 40.06 83.6% 0.225 -0.1907 0.65
Using Tokens but Not Events 3688 25.98% 31.55 88.02% 0.552 0.6674 -0.067

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 969 100.0% 36.47 100.0% -0.143 -0.3218 0.353
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 340 100.0% 32.74 100.0% -0.61 -0.596 -0.15
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 538 100.0% 33.75 100.0% -0.202 -0.4478 0.383
Downpour Drenches the World 315 100.0% 35.61 100.0% -0.063 0.3241 -0.208
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 7 100.0% 36.86 100.0% 0.49 0.7256 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 880 100.0% 37.15 100.0% -0.093 -0.5658 0.201
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 610 100.0% 34.21 100.0% 0.815 0.3687 0.14
Finder of Paths Unseen 122 100.0% 38.61 100.0% 0.051 0.4141 0.604
Fractured Days Split the Sky 392 100.0% 38.93 100.0% -0.007 0.0971 -0.356
Heart of the Wildfire 566 100.0% 32.56 100.0% -0.124 0.1351 -0.554
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1330 100.0% 39.21 100.0% 0.012 -0.5711 0.297
Lightning's Swift Strike 320 233.85% 28.53 147.81% -1.495 -1.2272 0.072
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 82 52.44% 42.33 78.05% -0.264 -1.0784 0.238
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 474 43.97% 42.09 80.17% -0.524 -1.0665 0.534
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 238 46.41% 42.72 82.77% 0.639 0.1616 0.897
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1411 100.0% 36.57 100.0% 0.032 -0.0889 0.097
Many Minds Move as One 597 100.0% 35.59 100.0% 0.001 -0.6216 0.477
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 755 100.0% 40.34 100.0% 1.026 0.8989 0.077
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 670 100.0% 35.86 100.0% 0.256 0.173 -0.016
River Surges in Sunlight 737 148.58% 44.42 119.54% -0.087 -0.2786 -0.324
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 276 50.36% 32.87 67.03% -0.507 -0.2196 -1.246
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 310 28.06% 53.8 82.9% 0.75 0.387 0.182
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 655 100.0% 37.86 100.0% 0.616 0.4429 0.267
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 85 395.35% 29.84 236.47% -0.132 0.2609 -0.371
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 45 48.89% 48.02 80.0% 0.294 0.3905 0.467
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 36 38.89% 40.11 91.67% 0.838 0.9129 0.121
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 281 50.53% 36.72 75.8% 0.383 0.3472 -0.187
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 148 52.38% 30.86 75.68% 0.011 0.0141 0.417
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 942 100.11% 39.64 100.11% -0.252 -0.4518 0.766
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.627 -0.3322 -0.459
Shifting Memory of Ages 956 100.0% 33.56 100.0% -0.079 0.1502 -0.226
Shroud of Silent Mist 555 100.0% 30.31 100.0% 0.329 0.5126 -0.549
Starlight Seeks its Form 1231 100.0% 36.21 100.0% -0.462 -0.6178 0.018
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 841 100.0% 33.48 100.0% -0.548 -0.8111 -0.325
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 527 100.0% 39.45 100.0% 0.605 0.6676 0.74
Thunderspeaker 801 100.12% 38.0 100.12% 0.321 0.2448 -0.309
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 1 0.0% 32.0 0.0% -0.51 -0.3045 -0.482
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 580 100.0% 34.32 100.0% 0.312 0.0497 -0.018
Vital Strength of the Earth 292 140.75% 29.1 116.44% -0.585 0.1681 -0.702
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 95 40.0% 36.54 86.32% -0.05 0.5285 0.135
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 122 49.18% 30.98 71.31% 0.168 1.3177 -0.804
Volcano Looming High 787 100.0% 34.37 100.0% -0.473 -0.4765 -0.063

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Impersonate Authority 94.47%
Incite the Mob 95.3%
Overenthusiastic Arson 68.62%
Unexpected Tigers 67.98%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3608 22.63 23.84%
II 14176 31.12 67.46%
III 12798 34.7 86.08%
IV 5703 37.97 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 860
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10880
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9394
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5653
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 25
Lose: Invader deck ran out 289
Lose: Adversary condition 2281
Win: Sacrifice victory 117
Lose: Scenario condition 367
Win: Scenario condition 226
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5780
Lose: Spirit destroyed 413

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.062 Win Model: -0.255

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.16 Win Model: 0.183
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 24022 50.63% 35.63 74.11%
2 7328 50.68% 36.26 74.81%
3 2553 51.47% 35.79 75.36%
4 1642 38.86% 38.15 80.09%
5 140 31.88% 29.68 86.43%
6 600 30.15% 38.16 81.0%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)