Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 40.0% 29.5 73.33% 0.56 1.0561 0.0
Blitz 0 213 40.48% 31.72 81.69% -0.357 0.0861 -0.424
Dahan Insurrection 4 224 35.27% 58.17 75.45% -0.248 -0.1512 0.569
Despicable Theft 2 133 55.64% 32.08 56.39% -0.392 0.1066 -2.037
Elemental Invocation 1 142 53.52% 32.06 66.2% -0.666 -0.1201 0.147
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1543 20.56% 45.81 72.2% -0.956 -0.725 -0.328
Powers Long Forgotten 1 53 62.26% 31.98 69.81% -0.092 0.3152 -0.852
Rituals of Terror 3 41 51.28% 41.44 70.73% -0.857 -1.0929 0.134
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 28 89.29% 32.79 64.29% -0.368 -0.1415 -0.635
Second Wave 0 785 41.49% 28.44 77.58% -0.338 0.354 -0.335
The Great River 3 72 69.44% 28.17 43.06% -1.275 0.3066 -1.487
Varied Terrains 2 37 54.05% 41.32 67.57% 0.166 0.9523 -0.288
Ward the Shores 2 79 60.76% 34.97 58.23% 0.164 1.0446 -0.214

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 21790 51.06% 35.87 74.49% -0.003 0.6602 0.247
1 Thematic 550 47.89% 35.23 67.45% -0.198 0.8584 -0.395
2 Archipelago 51 58.82% 33.76 72.55% 0.087 0.5579 -0.218
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4689 51.06% 36.68 75.22% 0.275 0.7933 0.123
2 Coastline 600 51.67% 36.3 71.67% 0.37 0.5709 0.224
2 Fragment 156 55.77% 44.15 79.49% -0.362 -0.0635 1.223
2 Heart 60 56.67% 37.13 71.67% -1.134 -0.6739 0.581
2 Opposite Shores 842 45.25% 33.31 77.2% 0.446 0.985 -0.29
2 Thematic 240 49.37% 34.49 75.0% -0.146 0.6367 -0.011
2 Top to Top 142 56.03% 41.39 80.99% 0.448 0.5762 0.61
3 Archipelago 28 53.57% 36.25 75.0% 0.593 0.3751 -0.475
3 Coastline 23 60.87% 30.13 52.17% 0.513 0.0054 -0.893
3 Other 87 42.53% 30.85 81.61% 0.149 -0.5152 1.386
3 Round (Default) 2210 52.04% 35.86 74.75% 0.442 0.747 -0.025
3 Sunrise 4 50.0% 43.5 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 126 65.08% 33.33 46.03% -0.083 0.1249 -1.78
4 Archipelago 23 27.27% 38.13 86.96% -0.517 -0.5539 -0.325
4 Coastline 13 38.46% 31.69 69.23% -0.214 -0.2509 0.0
4 Leaf 13 61.54% 29.62 76.92% -0.594 -0.6963 -0.355
4 Other 70 31.43% 31.51 84.29% 0.32 -0.394 0.871
4 Thematic 220 42.47% 43.32 79.09% 0.229 0.333 0.076
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1187 38.29% 37.96 80.54% 0.347 0.4244 -0.088
5 Archipelago 5 60.0% 42.8 80.0% -0.209 -0.3061 0.466
5 Coastline 5 0.0% 34.2 100.0% 0.0 -0.5876 0.0
5 Other 144 39.44% 31.67 81.25% 0.852 0.3352 0.47
5 Thematic 14 57.14% 26.07 78.57% -0.478 -0.7654 0.896
6 Archipelago 6 0.0% 37.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Other 56 23.21% 33.21 85.71% -0.039 0.0057 0.486
6 Star 41 29.27% 38.44 82.93% -0.557 0.2133 -0.101
6 Thematic 202 30.85% 40.3 75.74% -0.434 -0.1927 -1.259
6 Two Centers (Default) 237 30.8% 37.65 83.12% -0.193 -0.0018 -0.152
7 Archipelago 1 100.0% 52.0 0.0% 0.0 0.1488 -0.432
7 Other 7 42.86% 27.71 57.14% 0.163 -0.3213 -0.852

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1207 33.8 55.92% -1.589 0.3814 -1.131
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1007 36.34 58.79% -1.932 -0.1539 -0.799
All Things Weaken 1320 34.12 55.53% -2.124 -0.0754 -0.845
Back Against the Wall 1049 34.41 54.05% -1.608 0.3311 -1.023
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1109 32.27 55.28% -1.629 0.4992 -1.041
Downward Spiral 1328 32.86 57.61% -1.948 0.0132 -1.089
Erosion of Will 1185 33.29 53.0% -2.025 0.0571 -1.079
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 509 39.42 86.64% -0.245 0.2568 0.201
Memory Fades to Dust 1286 32.27 55.6% -2.16 -0.0195 -1.172
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1302 32.78 56.22% -1.856 0.125 -1.255
Promising Farmlands 1137 31.99 53.3% -1.796 0.2253 -1.254
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 370 40.07 90.54% 0.53 1.0269 0.256
Thriving Communities 1289 31.37 55.0% -1.83 0.229 -1.337
Unnatural Proliferation 1421 32.46 51.51% -2.017 -0.0605 -1.249
Untended Land Crumbles 1328 32.14 53.46% -1.779 0.2546 -1.224

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6619 49.92% 35.85 74.78% 0.341 1.0778 -0.413
B 7087 48.67% 37.03 76.13% 0.198 0.8951 -0.327
C 8360 47.19% 35.87 77.01% 0.015 0.4847 -0.293
D 6128 46.79% 35.74 77.22% 0.001 0.71 -0.396
E 6171 48.77% 36.62 75.32% 0.163 0.7069 -0.282
F 5582 50.45% 35.94 75.19% 0.231 0.8923 -0.384
G 5159 48.98% 36.19 75.67% -0.194 0.4369 -0.473
H 5089 49.44% 35.56 75.14% -0.056 0.6084 -0.232
East 996 43.79% 38.4 72.59% -0.075 0.5864 -0.329
Northeast 642 42.95% 38.86 71.81% -0.104 0.556 -0.186
Northwest 507 42.66% 39.51 73.57% -0.302 0.3081 0.174
Southeast 512 41.57% 37.95 68.16% 0.122 0.6529 -0.512
Southwest 444 42.31% 37.59 72.97% -0.103 0.865 -0.917
West 901 46.65% 38.09 71.03% -0.646 0.1593 -0.704

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 194 0.0% 24.71 83.51% -1.313 0.9164 0.31
Not Using Events or Tokens 4 50.0% 24.25 75.0% 0.03 0.257 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 717 16.49% 39.4 92.33% 0.556 -0.4241 0.775
Start of Game Growth 1006 22.21% 41.3 88.87% 0.871 0.4138 0.363
Unlimited Undo 3439 41.67% 40.15 83.8% 0.182 -0.3697 0.609
Using Tokens but Not Events 3357 26.26% 32.02 88.11% 0.525 0.6803 0.012

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 903 100.0% 36.38 100.0% 0.058 -0.0169 0.276
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 316 100.0% 32.68 100.0% -1.415 -1.3364 -0.183
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 505 100.0% 33.79 100.0% 0.025 -0.1998 0.477
Downpour Drenches the World 272 100.0% 35.53 100.0% -0.361 -0.0966 -0.247
Eyes Watch From the Trees 822 100.0% 37.53 100.0% 0.367 -0.1362 0.252
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 570 100.0% 34.37 100.0% 0.388 -0.1985 0.168
Finder of Paths Unseen 100 100.0% 37.3 100.0% -0.676 -0.3199 0.319
Fractured Days Split the Sky 370 100.0% 38.98 100.0% -0.395 -0.3129 -0.28
Heart of the Wildfire 525 100.0% 32.36 100.0% 0.038 0.4436 -0.597
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1225 100.0% 39.31 100.0% 0.14 -0.4631 0.17
Lightning's Swift Strike 303 231.48% 28.82 149.17% -0.973 -0.6078 0.103
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 69 57.97% 42.0 75.36% 0.04 -0.7093 0.087
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 452 43.9% 42.65 79.87% -0.421 -0.9844 0.554
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 224 46.64% 42.41 81.7% 0.107 -0.3869 0.891
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1328 100.0% 36.65 100.0% -0.105 -0.2565 0.124
Many Minds Move as One 559 100.0% 35.65 100.0% -0.155 -0.7408 0.342
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 698 100.0% 40.02 100.0% 0.478 0.3087 -0.013
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 635 100.0% 36.18 100.0% 0.349 0.2931 -0.042
River Surges in Sunlight 718 142.64% 44.52 118.11% -0.084 -0.1584 -0.377
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 262 49.23% 32.9 67.18% -0.616 -0.1895 -1.223
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 247 29.15% 53.95 82.19% 0.466 0.1248 0.126
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 613 100.0% 37.9 100.0% -0.157 -0.3502 0.199
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 77 397.44% 30.45 242.86% 0.042 0.5167 -0.374
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 34 50.0% 46.09 79.41% -0.081 0.0981 0.475
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 28 39.29% 38.61 89.29% 0.165 0.2209 0.142
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 267 50.94% 37.08 75.28% 1.023 1.0008 -0.218
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 139 51.45% 31.12 75.54% 0.467 0.5823 0.41
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 881 100.0% 39.88 100.0% 0.043 -0.1478 0.741
Shifting Memory of Ages 909 100.0% 33.68 100.0% -0.183 0.0323 -0.293
Shroud of Silent Mist 533 100.0% 30.13 100.0% 0.261 0.3953 -0.611
Starlight Seeks its Form 1135 100.0% 36.23 100.0% -0.267 -0.3821 0.168
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 794 100.0% 33.61 100.0% -0.588 -0.8268 -0.325
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 492 100.0% 39.5 100.0% 1.085 1.2149 0.635
Thunderspeaker 732 100.0% 38.06 100.0% 0.141 0.1239 -0.405
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 542 100.0% 34.08 100.0% -0.249 -0.4643 -0.065
Vital Strength of the Earth 246 142.68% 29.68 118.29% -0.107 0.7917 -0.731
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 80 41.25% 36.34 87.5% 0.991 1.4141 0.31
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 116 50.0% 30.68 69.83% 0.353 1.4673 -0.804
Volcano Looming High 731 100.0% 34.47 100.0% -0.255 -0.276 -0.038

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Impersonate Authority 94.49%
Incite the Mob 95.38%
Overenthusiastic Arson 68.97%
Unexpected Tigers 68.26%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3290 22.65 24.19%
II 13181 31.08 67.23%
III 12027 34.66 85.99%
IV 5344 37.91 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 796
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10213
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8701
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5302
Lose: Invader deck ran out 274
Lose: Adversary condition 2109
Win: Sacrifice victory 106
Lose: Scenario condition 332
Win: Scenario condition 215
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5409
Lose: Spirit destroyed 385

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.426 Win Model: -0.232

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.116 Win Model: 0.017
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 22419 51.08% 35.86 74.25%
2 6828 50.76% 36.35 74.85%
3 2378 51.52% 35.65 75.27%
4 1545 38.53% 38.22 80.06%
5 127 35.2% 29.78 86.61%
6 545 29.78% 38.24 80.73%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)