Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 95 35.79% 34.63 -1.49 72.63% 0.081 0.6505
Dahan Insurrection 4 446 15.92% 79.82 18.029 90.81% 0.931 1.329
Despicable Theft 2 36 55.56% 40.44 1.961 77.78% 0.134 0.4036
Elemental Invocation 1 70 48.57% 32.04 -2.333 62.86% -0.733 -0.2691
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1053 11.14% 58.48 5.097 86.61% -0.134 0.2328
Powers Long Forgotten 1 126 53.17% 35.68 -0.547 61.9% -0.744 -0.2992
Rituals of Terror 3 56 51.79% 41.84 2.656 69.64% -0.467 0.1779
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 36 77.78% 37.14 2.538 52.78% -0.204 0.441
Second Wave 0 504 38.88% 28.59 -3.893 72.62% -0.661 -0.2327
The Great River 3 37 54.05% 33.05 -0.408 45.95% -1.652 -0.189
Ward the Shores 2 85 41.18% 37.35 -0.739 64.71% -0.895 0.1387

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14370 48.74% 37.04 -0.174 65.71% -0.44 -0.2677
1 Thematic 592 49.74% 35.56 -0.813 65.03% -0.397 -0.0347
2 Archipelago 1 0.0% 35.0 0.401 100.0% 0.064 0.2911
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3753 44.81% 37.99 -0.048 74.98% -0.12 -0.0686
2 Coastline 453 37.86% 37.16 -0.5 80.79% 0.061 0.0681
2 Fragment 115 60.53% 39.69 0.802 73.04% 0.311 0.5673
2 Heart 45 44.44% 37.44 -0.338 73.33% -0.03 0.1117
2 Opposite Shores 732 31.19% 32.26 -2.689 79.51% -0.321 -0.2305
2 Thematic 217 41.01% 35.7 -1.349 71.43% -0.302 -0.3435
2 Top to Top 97 42.71% 40.71 0.282 70.1% -0.396 -0.4266
3 Coastline 19 31.58% 45.58 2.822 94.74% 0.665 0.4662
3 Other 143 34.97% 35.27 -1.745 84.62% 0.183 0.3577
3 Round (Default) 2116 38.81% 40.27 0.074 77.74% -0.226 -0.2992
3 Sunrise 15 53.33% 40.8 0.61 86.67% 0.729 0.4531
3 Thematic 92 32.61% 71.86 8.021 81.52% -0.054 -0.4562
4 Archipelago 9 55.56% 48.44 3.118 66.67% -0.374 0.1346
4 Coastline 8 12.5% 49.25 2.077 87.5% -0.385 -0.3353
4 Leaf 8 62.5% 45.0 1.8 75.0% -0.079 -0.1067
4 Other 169 21.89% 47.73 1.801 88.17% -0.092 -0.2055
4 Thematic 527 15.94% 66.43 4.846 92.41% 0.347 -0.7373
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1446 30.82% 41.93 0.09 83.61% -0.258 -0.3443
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 45.0 2.206 50.0% 0.008 0.8849
5 Other 55 32.73% 54.56 4.048 90.91% 0.534 -0.0692
5 Thematic 14 35.71% 64.0 6.111 85.71% 0.558 -2.2043
6 Other 2 0.0% 64.5 6.627 100.0% 0.051 -0.1116

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 808 33.68 -3.339 45.54% -2.184 -0.1107
Aid From Lesser Spirits 695 35.95 -2.293 48.06% -2.046 -0.128
All Things Weaken 951 32.1 -3.951 43.32% -2.281 -0.1112
Back Against the Wall 770 35.64 -2.517 49.87% -2.006 0.0856
Disintegrating Ecosystem 747 31.84 -4.191 46.45% -2.12 0.1043
Downward Spiral 837 32.02 -3.757 48.03% -2.057 -0.0344
Erosion of Will 791 34.29 -3.132 45.26% -2.104 0.1055
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 306 41.09 0.567 76.14% -0.775 -0.0884
Memory Fades to Dust 877 33.0 -3.504 49.03% -2.097 0.1217
Power Corrodes the Spirit 808 30.74 -4.371 47.15% -2.175 -0.1515
Promising Farmlands 736 32.06 -4.226 42.8% -2.272 -0.058
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 199 42.19 1.241 84.92% -0.242 0.1676
Thriving Communities 822 33.12 -3.512 46.35% -2.125 -0.0298
Unnatural Proliferation 896 33.29 -3.412 42.97% -2.302 -0.2152
Untended Land Crumbles 818 29.86 -4.911 42.18% -2.367 -0.2611

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3237 44.42% 35.91 -0.939 70.99% 0.158 -0.6028
B 3204 45.1% 37.4 -0.297 70.1% 0.169 -0.6882
C 3784 45.07% 39.4 0.518 70.06% 0.197 -0.8916
D 2676 44.75% 36.54 -0.569 69.66% 0.101 -0.7496
E 3524 43.56% 38.71 0.363 72.5% 0.304 -0.661
F 2699 46.69% 38.3 0.076 69.36% 0.171 -0.7435
G 2275 46.36% 37.11 -0.409 69.71% 0.15 -0.7553
H 2349 46.38% 38.27 0.098 71.22% 0.268 -0.6465
East 211 34.12% 47.17 1.629 78.67% -0.206 -0.8554
Northeast 261 35.25% 46.22 1.517 79.31% 0.042 -0.5565
Northwest 227 30.09% 57.58 3.225 78.41% -0.318 -0.9873
Southeast 119 34.45% 42.9 -0.038 73.95% -0.129 -0.835
Southwest 145 34.48% 44.7 -1.111 73.1% -0.561 -0.834
West 289 23.88% 62.1 4.319 83.74% -0.306 -0.7051

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 126 0.0% 22.26 -7.87 70.63% -2.081 -0.0251
Not Using Events or Tokens 181 37.89% 32.14 -2.811 79.56% 0.106 0.3216
Skip Initial Invader Actions 925 12.94% 60.39 4.591 89.41% 0.352 -0.3351
Start of Game Growth 1119 15.25% 57.17 3.526 88.38% 0.104 -0.3663
Unlimited Undo 2764 34.22% 46.73 2.559 83.76% 0.77 0.3505
Using Tokens but Not Events 2398 25.83% 33.76 -1.686 82.19% -0.037 -0.089

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1518 27.09% 48.79 1.79 84.39% 0.174 0.2882
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 411 47.54% 37.04 -1.271 73.48% -0.231 -0.0254
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 393 45.01% 33.22 -2.255 75.83% -0.192 -0.2974
Eyes Watch From the Trees 983 29.59% 39.85 0.677 85.66% 0.396 0.0034
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 396 34.95% 36.97 -0.681 82.58% 0.233 -0.058
Heart of the Wildfire 553 46.17% 40.31 -0.448 77.22% 0.05 0.3779
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1207 30.48% 44.16 1.13 83.26% 0.232 -0.0983
Lightning's Swift Strike 1017 38.21% 40.71 0.501 82.01% 0.286 0.5219
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 969 31.68% 45.53 0.982 82.35% 0.068 -0.2195
Many Minds Move as One 577 36.24% 39.12 -0.279 83.02% 0.196 -0.3352
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 739 35.1% 43.2 0.123 78.62% -0.207 -0.4219
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 420 40.19% 36.73 -0.473 82.38% 0.29 0.3142
River Surges in Sunlight 1064 33.99% 46.74 2.097 84.4% 0.269 0.3995
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1584 25.33% 55.24 4.352 83.33% 0.132 0.2467
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 544 43.46% 34.52 -1.926 75.92% -0.165 0.2518
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 534 29.21% 44.05 0.681 82.77% 0.074 -0.0236
Shifting Memory of Ages 146 39.73% 52.21 2.316 76.03% -0.15 -0.0589
Shroud of Silent Mist 230 38.86% 40.86 -1.277 78.7% -0.267 -0.2376
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 798 38.6% 38.09 -1.277 75.31% -0.3 -0.3486
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 446 29.5% 41.99 0.911 87.44% 0.57 0.7446
Thunderspeaker 744 37.3% 40.58 -0.364 76.61% -0.261 -0.2281
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 505 56.57% 36.8 -1.436 71.29% -0.153 -0.1706
Vital Strength of the Earth 489 38.32% 34.75 -2.446 70.35% -0.683 0.1711
Volcano Looming High 473 44.37% 40.44 -0.737 74.84% -0.137 -0.156

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.89%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.42%
Pour Time Sideways 32.3%
The Past Returns Again 71.99%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3881 22.35 24.84%
II 10082 30.84 68.55%
III 8063 34.35 85.48%
IV 2974 37.52 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 952
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6747
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6440
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2922
Lose: Invader deck ran out 598
Lose: Adversary condition 2257
Win: Sacrifice victory 211
Lose: Scenario condition 119
Win: Scenario condition 460
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3721
Lose: Spirit destroyed 573

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.061 Win Model: -0.135

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.37 Win Model: 0.262
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 14987 48.83% 36.96 65.67%
2 5456 42.43% 37.23 75.99%
3 2387 37.84% 41.45 78.51%
4 2170 26.82% 48.66 86.18%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)