Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 67 38.81% 35.27 -1.013 73.13% 0.141 0.7138
Dahan Insurrection 4 181 20.99% 69.92 14.658 88.95% 0.681 1.0822
Elemental Invocation 1 14 50.0% 36.0 -0.82 57.14% -0.584 -0.1189
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 594 14.33% 52.44 4.691 84.01% -0.056 0.3191
Powers Long Forgotten 1 81 58.02% 35.3 -0.514 61.73% -0.726 -0.2787
Rituals of Terror 3 30 46.67% 45.67 4.208 73.33% -0.206 0.4159
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 21 85.71% 40.38 4.772 61.9% 0.298 0.9227
Second Wave 0 269 44.61% 28.32 -3.946 67.29% -0.837 -0.4181
The Great River 3 19 52.63% 35.42 0.406 47.37% -1.608 -0.1234
Ward the Shores 2 58 36.21% 36.24 -1.525 62.07% -1.251 -0.2203

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 9333 48.0% 37.16 -0.118 67.2% -0.313 0.0414
1 Thematic 295 53.74% 32.15 -1.722 60.34% -0.608 -0.1105
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2545 42.72% 37.93 0.026 76.66% -0.046 0.1431
2 Coastline 318 38.22% 38.12 -0.025 83.33% 0.33 0.4653
2 Fragment 63 59.68% 39.27 0.842 73.02% 0.39 0.8157
2 Heart 30 46.67% 36.1 -0.229 76.67% 0.039 0.3299
2 Opposite Shores 472 32.2% 32.74 -2.356 78.39% -0.332 -0.1057
2 Thematic 146 41.78% 35.56 -0.664 72.6% -0.357 -0.3124
2 Top to Top 55 43.64% 42.71 0.843 67.27% -0.387 -0.271
3 Coastline 17 35.29% 47.35 3.682 94.12% 0.631 0.5931
3 Other 74 51.35% 37.78 -0.892 78.38% 0.158 0.5597
3 Round (Default) 1379 40.06% 40.35 0.371 78.83% -0.186 -0.1549
3 Sunrise 12 58.33% 41.58 1.42 91.67% 1.082 0.829
3 Thematic 31 51.61% 49.06 2.829 64.52% -0.826 -1.1649
4 Coastline 5 0.0% 55.0 4.781 100.0% 0.12 0.2421
4 Leaf 5 80.0% 42.8 2.793 80.0% 0.227 0.3064
4 Other 114 21.05% 48.86 2.496 86.84% -0.317 -0.236
4 Thematic 194 26.29% 53.91 2.94 86.08% -0.293 -1.3712
4 Trapezoid (Default) 903 27.39% 42.43 0.428 84.27% -0.382 -0.4149
5 Other 35 28.57% 55.49 4.525 94.29% 0.467 0.2496
5 Thematic 2 100.0% 60.0 8.014 100.0% 0.635 -2.1323

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 518 33.18 -3.499 45.17% -2.243 -0.1751
Aid From Lesser Spirits 451 36.04 -2.1 50.33% -1.935 -0.018
All Things Weaken 591 32.12 -3.963 44.33% -2.279 -0.1186
Back Against the Wall 507 35.36 -2.491 52.27% -1.962 0.1303
Disintegrating Ecosystem 491 31.7 -4.259 47.25% -2.13 0.0913
Downward Spiral 524 32.15 -3.736 48.85% -2.049 -0.0344
Erosion of Will 497 34.01 -3.108 47.48% -2.061 0.1501
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 207 41.84 0.915 79.71% -0.615 0.0972
Memory Fades to Dust 553 33.14 -3.561 50.09% -2.106 0.1099
Power Corrodes the Spirit 503 31.34 -4.071 48.31% -2.156 -0.1362
Promising Farmlands 492 32.04 -4.264 42.89% -2.3 -0.0858
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 127 40.32 0.746 82.68% -0.4 0.0172
Thriving Communities 510 32.3 -3.769 46.27% -2.173 -0.0658
Unnatural Proliferation 571 33.69 -3.257 44.66% -2.254 -0.1738
Untended Land Crumbles 520 30.86 -4.393 45.58% -2.214 -0.1192

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2132 43.6% 36.02 -0.79 72.65% 0.106 -0.9672
B 1986 44.36% 38.1 -0.049 71.6% 0.116 -1.0485
C 2485 45.96% 38.36 0.152 69.66% 0.07 -1.3269
D 1725 44.26% 36.57 -0.52 71.36% 0.049 -1.1089
E 2307 43.17% 39.09 0.581 73.86% 0.259 -0.9979
F 1742 46.42% 38.86 0.329 70.21% 0.112 -1.114
G 1513 43.96% 37.32 -0.276 71.71% 0.073 -1.1393
H 1573 43.1% 38.65 0.243 73.49% 0.167 -1.0547
East 112 34.82% 40.47 0.158 74.11% -0.33 -1.2663
Northeast 127 42.52% 39.51 1.267 74.8% 0.188 -0.6815
Northwest 87 45.35% 42.24 0.647 70.11% -0.309 -1.2541
Southeast 64 35.94% 39.09 -0.309 67.19% -0.251 -1.2339
Southwest 63 50.79% 31.4 -3.128 61.9% -0.335 -0.9596
West 112 36.61% 52.99 3.474 79.46% 0.115 -0.5502

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 69 0.0% 18.72 -9.024 65.22% -2.347 -0.3081
Not Using Events or Tokens 68 45.28% 25.04 -4.888 79.41% 0.154 0.3738
Skip Initial Invader Actions 491 15.0% 55.51 4.549 86.35% 0.181 -0.5248
Start of Game Growth 627 17.79% 52.61 3.324 85.96% 0.226 -0.233
Unlimited Undo 1682 35.42% 44.79 2.579 83.53% 0.766 0.3636
Using Tokens but Not Events 1225 23.65% 31.92 -2.698 84.33% 0.042 -0.0037

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 907 29.14% 44.92 1.347 84.23% 0.147 0.2933
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 255 52.19% 36.85 -0.95 72.94% -0.229 0.0076
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 251 46.0% 33.49 -1.795 78.49% -0.014 -0.1007
Eyes Watch From the Trees 681 26.62% 39.01 0.486 87.52% 0.438 0.0686
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 250 34.94% 36.51 -0.79 81.6% 0.096 -0.1368
Heart of the Wildfire 352 45.27% 40.26 -0.15 76.42% -0.104 0.244
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 778 30.63% 42.56 0.977 82.26% 0.145 -0.1528
Lightning's Swift Strike 747 37.5% 40.86 0.619 81.79% 0.192 0.4602
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 532 33.21% 44.27 1.282 81.77% 0.101 -0.26
Many Minds Move as One 401 39.0% 37.43 -0.473 81.8% 0.151 -0.3626
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 474 34.75% 41.98 0.071 77.0% -0.321 -0.5178
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 281 43.73% 36.76 -0.397 81.14% 0.216 0.2631
River Surges in Sunlight 682 36.87% 42.49 1.385 84.02% 0.287 0.4541
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 922 27.22% 51.94 4.394 85.03% 0.357 0.5063
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 421 43.23% 33.91 -2.071 73.4% -0.32 0.1295
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 341 32.84% 41.38 0.199 81.23% 0.053 -0.0112
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 530 40.94% 37.68 -1.28 73.77% -0.371 -0.3895
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 250 28.92% 41.33 0.993 88.0% 0.625 0.8398
Thunderspeaker 472 34.89% 39.5 -0.362 77.12% -0.31 -0.2499
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 348 54.05% 37.1 -1.274 70.69% -0.193 -0.1565
Vital Strength of the Earth 339 39.23% 34.6 -2.079 71.68% -0.589 0.2752
Volcano Looming High 126 49.21% 38.35 -1.055 74.6% -0.068 -0.1689

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.94%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.32%
Pour Time Sideways 31.27%
The Past Returns Again 72.11%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2402 22.34 26.44%
II 6380 30.71 68.68%
III 5312 34.23 85.88%
IV 1934 37.48 99.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 627
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4467
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4180
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1904
Lose: Invader deck ran out 360
Lose: Adversary condition 1398
Win: Sacrifice victory 136
Lose: Scenario condition 72
Win: Scenario condition 197
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2327
Lose: Spirit destroyed 360

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.966 Win Model: -0.143

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.3 Win Model: 0.319
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9641 48.22% 37.0 66.98%
2 3658 41.19% 37.32 77.23%
3 1505 40.43% 40.68 78.74%
4 1224 26.91% 45.09 85.21%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)