Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 75 37.33% 34.17 -1.438 72.0% 0.007 0.584
Dahan Insurrection 4 247 17.0% 74.21 15.584 90.28% 0.781 1.1816
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 38.0 1.423 100.0% 0.051 0.4802
Elemental Invocation 1 31 51.61% 35.42 -1.175 58.06% -0.782 -0.4012
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 648 13.45% 52.64 4.555 84.26% -0.076 0.2897
Powers Long Forgotten 1 92 58.7% 34.63 -0.993 59.78% -0.832 -0.3907
Rituals of Terror 3 41 51.22% 42.8 2.85 68.29% -0.47 0.1582
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 24 83.33% 40.79 4.96 62.5% 0.336 0.9853
Second Wave 0 323 42.55% 28.03 -4.098 69.04% -0.797 -0.3805
The Great River 3 25 48.0% 35.16 0.31 48.0% -1.683 -0.2113
Ward the Shores 2 63 36.51% 36.65 -1.312 61.9% -1.226 -0.1895

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 10481 48.36% 37.07 -0.17 66.56% -0.404 -0.0453
1 Thematic 390 48.33% 32.07 -1.74 64.1% -0.675 -0.171
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2805 43.66% 38.06 0.098 76.72% -0.027 0.1686
2 Coastline 345 38.12% 37.92 -0.15 82.61% 0.253 0.3954
2 Fragment 76 57.33% 40.46 1.318 76.32% 0.464 0.8868
2 Heart 35 48.57% 39.0 0.868 77.14% 0.247 0.5395
2 Opposite Shores 530 32.33% 32.95 -2.214 79.62% -0.248 -0.0231
2 Thematic 158 41.77% 35.47 -0.784 72.15% -0.51 -0.4651
2 Top to Top 64 42.19% 42.33 0.621 67.19% -0.507 -0.3729
3 Coastline 18 33.33% 47.06 3.522 94.44% 0.678 0.645
3 Other 83 49.4% 36.99 -1.102 80.72% 0.208 0.6233
3 Round (Default) 1610 39.99% 40.3 0.225 77.39% -0.23 -0.1912
3 Sunrise 12 58.33% 41.58 1.37 91.67% 1.04 0.8167
3 Thematic 56 32.14% 72.66 8.888 76.79% -0.708 -1.0649
4 Coastline 7 14.29% 45.29 0.717 85.71% -0.429 -0.2711
4 Leaf 5 80.0% 42.8 2.6 80.0% 0.192 0.2198
4 Other 129 20.93% 48.09 2.147 86.82% -0.26 -0.1469
4 Thematic 235 24.26% 55.01 3.019 88.09% -0.147 -1.2336
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1021 28.53% 42.28 0.319 83.45% -0.357 -0.374
5 Other 38 28.95% 56.89 5.13 94.74% 0.762 0.5433
5 Thematic 2 100.0% 60.0 7.593 100.0% 0.689 -2.1387

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 588 33.56 -3.39 45.41% -2.242 -0.1716
Aid From Lesser Spirits 506 35.9 -2.183 50.4% -1.953 -0.0347
All Things Weaken 669 32.21 -3.907 44.54% -2.252 -0.0975
Back Against the Wall 583 35.86 -2.303 52.32% -1.943 0.1536
Disintegrating Ecosystem 555 32.08 -4.099 47.03% -2.105 0.1188
Downward Spiral 595 31.89 -3.807 48.24% -2.066 -0.0489
Erosion of Will 577 34.62 -2.867 47.31% -2.059 0.1506
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 230 41.43 0.765 78.7% -0.666 0.0387
Memory Fades to Dust 625 33.05 -3.545 49.76% -2.105 0.1099
Power Corrodes the Spirit 575 31.12 -4.19 47.83% -2.168 -0.1475
Promising Farmlands 540 32.02 -4.264 42.96% -2.28 -0.0673
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 141 40.96 0.876 82.98% -0.376 0.059
Thriving Communities 579 32.78 -3.548 46.98% -2.106 -0.008
Unnatural Proliferation 660 33.38 -3.362 43.94% -2.277 -0.1993
Untended Land Crumbles 587 30.37 -4.626 43.78% -2.276 -0.1771

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2380 43.91% 36.13 -0.795 72.1% 0.07 -1.02
B 2250 44.48% 38.24 0.032 71.47% 0.087 -1.0983
C 2791 46.39% 38.49 0.246 69.69% 0.062 -1.3526
D 1955 44.75% 36.36 -0.609 70.43% -0.003 -1.1799
E 2578 43.52% 39.13 0.563 73.43% 0.217 -1.0597
F 1959 46.41% 38.53 0.17 70.04% 0.068 -1.1745
G 1696 44.85% 37.16 -0.363 70.46% 0.005 -1.2258
H 1764 43.94% 38.53 0.205 72.39% 0.114 -1.1259
East 135 33.33% 40.69 0.027 74.81% -0.288 -1.239
Northeast 166 38.55% 38.18 0.771 77.71% 0.25 -0.6404
Northwest 105 40.38% 42.17 0.893 72.38% -0.23 -1.1945
Southeast 77 32.47% 39.91 -0.09 71.43% -0.132 -1.1337
Southwest 79 49.37% 30.11 -3.643 63.29% -0.322 -0.9301
West 165 29.7% 60.58 5.008 82.42% 0.132 -0.5536

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 82 0.0% 20.18 -8.415 64.63% -2.306 -0.2616
Not Using Events or Tokens 85 44.78% 26.42 -4.568 78.82% 0.06 0.2789
Skip Initial Invader Actions 527 15.21% 55.65 4.452 85.96% 0.135 -0.5688
Start of Game Growth 673 18.08% 52.69 3.283 85.59% 0.212 -0.2419
Unlimited Undo 1845 35.44% 44.55 2.482 83.41% 0.78 0.3682
Using Tokens but Not Events 1415 25.61% 32.09 -2.53 82.33% -0.055 -0.1023

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1057 28.88% 46.17 1.577 83.35% 0.139 0.285
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 301 50.84% 36.2 -1.45 69.77% -0.433 -0.1964
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 287 45.45% 33.25 -1.986 76.66% -0.123 -0.2081
Eyes Watch From the Trees 750 27.14% 39.43 0.602 87.07% 0.382 0.0168
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 288 36.24% 36.18 -0.914 81.25% 0.072 -0.1723
Heart of the Wildfire 398 44.92% 41.03 0.134 77.89% 0.043 0.3934
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 863 31.44% 42.74 0.991 82.16% 0.136 -0.1641
Lightning's Swift Strike 811 38.31% 41.22 0.732 81.63% 0.211 0.4798
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 635 33.65% 43.93 0.912 81.26% 0.025 -0.2943
Many Minds Move as One 435 38.25% 37.53 -0.452 82.3% 0.181 -0.3394
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 539 35.82% 41.58 -0.004 76.81% -0.313 -0.5073
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 315 43.41% 36.77 -0.376 81.59% 0.23 0.2789
River Surges in Sunlight 747 36.79% 43.08 1.6 84.07% 0.289 0.4509
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1106 26.61% 52.32 4.118 82.73% 0.104 0.2534
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 447 44.07% 34.35 -1.882 74.5% -0.265 0.1851
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 385 33.51% 41.09 0.07 80.0% -0.039 -0.1063
Shroud of Silent Mist 16 18.75% 41.0 0.105 93.75% 0.463 0.4191
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 581 40.1% 37.46 -1.273 74.53% -0.362 -0.3813
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 298 30.98% 41.43 0.992 87.92% 0.622 0.8384
Thunderspeaker 537 35.58% 40.07 -0.176 77.47% -0.264 -0.2061
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 378 55.05% 37.07 -1.304 70.37% -0.225 -0.205
Vital Strength of the Earth 369 39.67% 34.72 -2.134 71.54% -0.601 0.2694
Volcano Looming High 234 47.86% 38.93 -0.747 75.64% -0.001 -0.0626

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.93%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.34%
Pour Time Sideways 31.23%
The Past Returns Again 72.28%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2715 22.34 25.71%
II 7257 30.75 68.25%
III 5930 34.26 85.73%
IV 2198 37.47 99.86%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 688
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4974
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4688
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2161
Lose: Invader deck ran out 428
Lose: Adversary condition 1600
Win: Sacrifice victory 157
Lose: Scenario condition 81
Win: Scenario condition 262
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2654
Lose: Spirit destroyed 407

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.009 Win Model: -0.137

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.32 Win Model: 0.303
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 10886 48.39% 36.89 66.46%
2 4043 41.87% 37.45 77.42%
3 1779 39.62% 41.46 77.8%
4 1392 27.38% 45.17 84.84%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)