Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 30.0% 24.9 70.0% 0.018 -0.1658 -0.954
Blitz 0 172 42.11% 31.83 66.86% -0.244 0.0463 -0.429
Dahan Insurrection 4 1058 22.68% 79.3 76.28% 1.785 1.6064 1.082
Despicable Theft 2 75 46.67% 35.73 66.67% -0.997 -0.3417 0.013
Elemental Invocation 1 121 47.93% 29.45 58.68% -1.705 -0.8785 -0.61
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1576 12.91% 57.12 82.68% 0.868 0.3678 0.032
Powers Long Forgotten 1 178 51.12% 36.15 64.04% -0.095 0.3147 0.176
Rituals of Terror 3 105 53.85% 52.06 66.67% -0.393 -0.5089 0.682
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 75.0% 34.96 46.15% -0.945 -0.1701 -0.716
Second Wave 0 1056 32.86% 28.85 77.65% 0.908 1.0242 -1.364
The Great River 3 59 50.85% 30.68 42.37% -0.646 0.7926 -0.314
Varied Terrains 2 20 60.0% 36.35 60.0% -0.364 0.1288 -0.216
Ward the Shores 2 127 42.52% 37.44 68.5% 0.486 1.3993 -1.258

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 22335 47.44% 37.37 65.27% 0.076 0.314 0.102
1 Thematic 856 52.53% 35.03 59.81% 0.046 0.6384 0.885
2 Archipelago 49 57.14% 43.1 40.82% -1.055 -0.2308 -1.28
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6167 43.74% 37.71 74.57% 0.344 0.5306 -0.167
2 Coastline 756 38.13% 35.66 78.04% 0.29 0.4316 -0.138
2 Fragment 159 57.59% 37.38 66.67% 0.303 0.2303 0.315
2 Heart 108 42.59% 41.64 53.7% 0.726 0.547 -1.557
2 Opposite Shores 1189 35.06% 32.75 76.45% 0.182 0.3108 -0.694
2 Thematic 358 39.66% 35.88 63.13% -0.665 -0.0879 -0.952
2 Top to Top 188 41.71% 40.01 73.4% 0.159 0.37 -0.539
3 Archipelago 15 40.0% 46.2 80.0% 0.537 0.005 0.513
3 Coastline 32 29.03% 37.91 84.38% 0.289 -0.1528 0.455
3 Other 207 35.75% 33.94 82.13% 0.192 -0.4368 0.147
3 Round (Default) 3478 40.14% 40.0 75.79% 0.546 0.5076 -0.834
3 Sunrise 20 55.0% 37.45 90.0% 0.0 -0.4777 0.088
3 Thematic 153 36.6% 61.12 73.86% 1.205 0.9132 0.16
4 Archipelago 25 52.0% 43.44 68.0% -0.317 -0.2472 -0.537
4 Coastline 21 10.0% 36.86 80.95% -0.225 -0.232 0.462
4 Leaf 16 43.75% 47.38 81.25% -0.62 -0.7073 -0.695
4 Other 228 25.0% 45.3 85.09% 0.502 -0.1806 -0.689
4 Thematic 652 20.09% 63.48 85.74% -0.8 -0.9393 -0.786
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2289 32.3% 42.68 80.82% 0.041 -0.1724 -1.329
5 Archipelago 12 41.67% 52.42 66.67% 0.147 -1.0462 -0.759
5 Coastline 12 0.0% 35.92 91.67% 0.024 -0.1222 0.227
5 Other 217 25.23% 41.84 78.34% -0.585 -1.114 -1.477
5 Thematic 65 47.69% 57.29 58.46% -0.031 -0.3712 -0.752
6 Archipelago 32 12.5% 54.81 81.25% -0.944 -0.8331 -2.25
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5965 0.0
6 Other 104 21.36% 43.8 86.54% -0.196 -0.6198 -2.221
6 Star 34 44.12% 40.44 67.65% -0.852 -0.2625 -2.007
6 Thematic 152 27.81% 43.49 67.11% -2.092 -1.8592 -2.214
6 Two Centers (Default) 387 19.43% 54.59 82.95% -1.302 -0.8289 -1.906
7 Archipelago 9 22.22% 67.89 100.0% 0.268 -0.789 0.083
7 Other 7 14.29% 18.71 42.86% -1.126 -1.851 -1.335

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1237 34.93 46.97% -0.077 0.588 -0.989
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1126 37.63 50.0% -0.142 0.3223 -0.799
All Things Weaken 1445 32.43 42.98% -0.147 0.6653 -1.064
Attenuated Essence 16 29.0 31.25% -0.828 -0.1822 -0.882
Back Against the Wall 1209 36.59 50.29% -0.539 0.0077 -0.817
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 23.69 38.46% -0.511 0.408 -0.822
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 27.73 36.36% -0.562 0.2306 -0.915
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1169 32.42 45.94% -0.618 0.2383 -1.022
Downward Spiral 1317 32.81 47.38% -0.395 0.2843 -0.995
Erosion of Will 1243 34.25 44.41% -0.242 0.5649 -1.151
Intensifying Exploitation 12 33.08 41.67% -0.118 0.8259 0.004
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 492 41.86 76.02% 0.381 0.1275 -0.066
Memory Fades to Dust 1365 33.79 49.67% 0.329 1.1559 -0.889
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1293 31.81 46.71% -0.566 0.0724 -1.258
Promising Farmlands 1166 33.07 42.62% -0.296 0.5992 -1.187
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 25.18 18.18% -1.164 -0.5157 -0.847
Slow Dissolution of Will 11 18.91 27.27% -0.848 0.1339 -0.971
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 353 43.04 82.15% 1.645 1.1528 0.305
The Border of Life and Death 4 11.25 50.0% 0.133 0.3387 0.0
Thriving Communities 1291 34.36 47.33% -0.551 0.3306 -0.866
Thriving Crops 3 17.0 33.33% -0.3 0.2522 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 1369 34.66 44.41% -0.33 0.3372 -1.054
Untended Land Crumbles 1324 30.35 42.07% 0.212 0.9444 -1.236

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9035 40.16% 37.93 72.77% 0.126 1.0311 0.52
B 8865 40.44% 38.87 72.93% 0.092 0.89 0.827
C 10387 39.9% 41.02 73.6% 0.205 0.8546 1.055
D 7823 39.9% 38.24 73.23% -0.05 0.8005 0.761
E 9198 40.28% 39.77 73.51% 0.402 1.0998 0.893
F 7343 41.85% 38.79 71.47% 0.057 0.8269 0.773
G 6425 41.69% 38.56 72.95% 0.437 1.2098 0.763
H 6593 41.61% 39.06 73.12% 0.261 0.9823 0.966
East 1654 32.61% 51.56 72.91% -0.449 0.3321 -0.992
Northeast 1014 30.8% 54.57 74.95% -0.93 0.0247 -0.745
Northwest 810 33.91% 51.51 70.25% -0.1 0.51 -0.698
Southeast 686 30.36% 49.57 71.43% -0.169 0.5006 -0.914
Southwest 590 29.88% 46.71 73.73% -0.673 0.6103 -0.978
West 1491 32.84% 51.29 72.37% -0.016 1.0882 -0.309

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 291 0.0% 21.64 64.95% -0.73 0.4718 -0.644
Not Using Events or Tokens 344 29.35% 31.4 80.52% 0.748 0.9924 -0.303
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1309 12.91% 58.96 88.24% -0.421 -0.9986 -0.173
Start of Game Growth 1636 15.84% 55.42 86.92% 0.692 0.2327 -0.173
Unlimited Undo 4645 34.96% 48.13 81.72% 0.425 0.2474 1.104
Using Tokens but Not Events 3847 25.74% 33.41 78.97% -0.048 -0.0874 -0.128

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2657 100.0% 48.79 100.0% 0.106 -0.0061 0.473
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 607 100.0% 35.98 100.0% -0.611 -0.5569 0.237
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 613 100.0% 32.59 100.0% -0.03 -0.1807 -0.305
Downpour Drenches the World 292 100.0% 49.15 100.0% 0.691 0.9363 0.092
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 83 100.0% 25.18 100.0% -0.386 -0.7906 -0.519
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1632 100.0% 39.75 100.0% 0.601 0.0816 0.215
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 648 100.0% 35.85 100.0% 0.465 0.0225 0.061
Finder of Paths Unseen 266 100.0% 49.06 100.0% -0.205 0.419 0.866
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 410 100.0% 38.12 100.0% 0.094 -0.0519 -0.529
Heart of the Wildfire 799 100.0% 37.14 100.0% -0.223 -0.0195 -0.164
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1921 100.0% 44.13 100.0% 0.313 -0.231 0.359
Lightning's Swift Strike 375 300.0% 31.46 157.33% -0.21 0.0587 0.319
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 104 33.01% 53.48 81.73% 0.633 -0.1343 0.268
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 522 38.39% 39.93 81.61% -0.76 -1.1287 0.71
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 559 32.97% 45.55 82.11% 0.607 0.3572 0.69
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1569 100.0% 43.73 100.0% 0.304 0.1183 0.452
Many Minds Move as One 927 100.0% 38.64 100.0% 0.3 -0.0511 0.744
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1165 100.0% 43.21 100.0% 0.243 0.1695 -0.002
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 693 100.0% 35.29 100.0% 0.012 -0.102 0.353
River Surges in Sunlight 1036 147.59% 46.41 113.8% 0.644 0.5826 0.57
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 557 30.58% 47.58 82.94% 1.322 1.4921 0.358
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 166 34.55% 50.14 71.08% -0.325 -0.5575 0.11
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2809 100.0% 54.61 100.0% 0.152 -0.0191 0.394
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 137 360.84% 28.12 216.79% 0.161 0.5702 -0.691
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 28 44.44% 34.14 75.0% 0.095 0.1089 0.281
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 16 50.0% 31.38 68.75% -0.452 -0.4315 -0.065
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 354 40.46% 36.69 76.55% -0.093 -0.1663 -0.231
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 248 42.68% 32.75 73.79% -0.357 -0.2317 -0.826
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 812 102.09% 42.37 100.49% 0.173 -0.0096 0.107
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 18 5.56% 31.72 77.78% 0.675 0.5936 -0.03
Shifting Memory of Ages 1106 100.0% 48.09 100.0% -0.312 -0.045 -0.496
Shroud of Silent Mist 497 100.0% 36.18 100.0% -0.565 -0.2521 -0.593
Starlight Seeks its Form 1159 100.0% 45.44 100.0% 0.194 0.0145 -0.073
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1377 100.0% 37.81 100.0% -0.088 -0.6118 -0.307
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 707 100.0% 39.23 100.0% -0.411 -0.3312 0.487
Thunderspeaker 1299 100.77% 41.82 100.69% 0.492 0.4302 -0.142
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 15 33.33% 20.87 40.0% -0.568 -0.4698 -0.664
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 801 100.0% 35.56 100.0% -0.413 -0.4247 0.006
Vital Strength of the Earth 435 160.92% 34.16 143.22% -0.247 0.3464 -0.7
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 172 43.02% 51.17 55.23% -1.385 -1.0852 -0.705
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 303 44.88% 34.2 63.37% -0.562 0.4071 -0.724
Volcano Looming High 880 100.0% 38.54 100.0% 0.246 0.2487 0.134

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.75%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.35%
Pour Time Sideways 33.65%
The Past Returns Again 71.58%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7021 21.84 21.62%
II 15978 31.08 69.28%
III 12741 34.71 86.27%
IV 4628 37.98 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1489
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10745
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10155
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4555
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 683
Lose: Invader deck ran out 866
Lose: Adversary condition 3723
Win: Sacrifice victory 358
Lose: Scenario condition 212
Win: Scenario condition 892
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5814
Lose: Spirit destroyed 876

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.762 Win Model: -0.031

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.298 Win Model: 0.304
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 23368 47.67% 37.34 64.83%
2 8968 42.18% 36.86 74.61%
3 3910 39.81% 40.79 76.24%
4 3214 29.1% 47.51 82.55%
5 196 20.1% 35.34 76.02%
6 712 22.14% 50.3 80.2%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)