Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 33.33% 34.0 100.0% 0.43 0.04 0.0
Blitz 0 163 44.44% 32.37 69.33% -1.076 -0.5885 -0.494
Dahan Insurrection 4 1013 22.41% 81.06 78.48% 2.263 2.3432 1.085
Despicable Theft 2 64 50.0% 39.0 73.44% -0.237 0.2194 0.058
Elemental Invocation 1 114 49.12% 31.05 62.28% -0.853 -0.2024 -0.651
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1545 12.91% 57.64 83.04% -0.064 0.0555 -0.128
Powers Long Forgotten 1 168 52.38% 36.71 65.48% -0.879 -0.2817 0.543
Rituals of Terror 3 103 54.37% 53.07 67.96% -0.23 -0.3481 0.787
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 48 79.17% 37.23 50.0% -0.243 0.1022 -0.695
Second Wave 0 1030 33.14% 28.98 77.96% 0.128 0.6397 -1.46
The Great River 3 55 54.55% 31.62 43.64% 0.0 1.7098 -0.338
Varied Terrains 2 17 58.82% 41.41 70.59% -0.563 0.2288 -0.214
Ward the Shores 2 122 40.98% 37.52 68.85% 0.047 0.7672 -1.292

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 21607 48.12% 38.1 66.56% -0.411 0.261 0.119
1 Thematic 840 53.18% 35.36 60.36% -0.134 1.0605 0.871
2 Archipelago 39 69.23% 53.36 48.72% -0.352 0.7032 -1.334
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5973 43.85% 38.2 75.61% -0.056 0.4526 -0.178
2 Coastline 732 38.57% 36.44 79.37% 0.338 0.5481 -0.218
2 Fragment 158 57.96% 37.61 67.09% -0.02 0.1844 0.248
2 Heart 106 42.45% 41.85 53.77% 0.357 0.9722 -1.723
2 Opposite Shores 1148 35.76% 33.42 77.61% -0.537 -0.0449 -0.715
2 Thematic 326 41.41% 37.38 67.79% 0.525 1.6243 -0.6
2 Top to Top 181 40.0% 40.4 74.59% 0.248 0.4291 -0.565
3 Archipelago 15 40.0% 46.2 80.0% 0.388 0.9532 0.462
3 Coastline 28 32.14% 39.18 89.29% 0.217 0.2594 0.341
3 Other 199 36.18% 34.53 84.42% 0.285 -0.5543 0.077
3 Round (Default) 3391 40.22% 40.27 76.35% -0.095 0.1809 -0.924
3 Sunrise 20 55.0% 37.45 90.0% 0.0 0.2245 0.049
3 Thematic 148 35.81% 61.51 73.65% 0.506 0.9764 -0.015
4 Archipelago 19 52.63% 45.63 73.68% 0.09 0.0226 -0.264
4 Coastline 21 10.0% 36.86 80.95% 0.172 -0.288 0.418
4 Leaf 16 43.75% 47.38 81.25% -0.81 -0.5038 -0.793
4 Other 226 24.78% 45.53 84.96% -0.076 -0.7219 -0.773
4 Thematic 636 19.97% 64.76 87.26% -0.652 -0.2494 -0.764
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2207 32.75% 43.32 81.56% -0.675 -0.4404 -1.449
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 61.78 77.78% 0.153 -0.1141 0.107
5 Coastline 11 0.0% 39.18 100.0% 0.366 -0.3842 0.21
5 Other 197 25.0% 42.97 82.23% -0.594 -1.3102 -1.281
5 Thematic 63 49.21% 57.51 58.73% -0.416 -1.279 -0.933
6 Archipelago 26 11.54% 58.12 88.46% -0.695 -0.8702 -0.856
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.8727 0.0
6 Other 90 20.22% 44.03 88.89% 0.381 -0.3015 -2.124
6 Star 32 43.75% 42.97 71.88% -0.16 0.3494 -2.064
6 Thematic 130 27.69% 48.08 74.62% -0.455 -0.3932 -2.164
6 Two Centers (Default) 331 21.21% 59.78 89.73% -0.809 -0.2116 -1.304
7 Archipelago 9 22.22% 67.89 100.0% 0.012 0.3095 0.021
7 Other 4 25.0% 32.75 75.0% 0.295 -0.063 -1.245

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1215 35.05 47.33% -0.969 0.9795 -1.073
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1100 37.47 49.91% -1.979 -0.1853 -0.963
All Things Weaken 1421 32.45 42.86% -1.635 0.4492 -1.202
Back Against the Wall 1197 36.73 50.63% -1.586 0.2961 -0.95
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1148 32.57 46.25% -1.868 0.2039 -1.13
Downward Spiral 1286 32.83 47.36% -2.136 -0.2554 -1.131
Erosion of Will 1223 34.28 44.48% -1.88 0.2083 -1.279
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 479 42.26 76.83% -0.737 -0.1291 -0.228
Memory Fades to Dust 1352 33.84 49.78% -0.813 1.2432 -1.006
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1274 31.86 46.86% -2.168 -0.2489 -1.404
Promising Farmlands 1146 33.05 42.93% -1.644 0.3959 -1.308
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 348 43.22 82.47% 0.47 0.9094 0.151
Thriving Communities 1266 34.6 47.55% -2.339 -0.2642 -0.982
Unnatural Proliferation 1346 34.87 44.8% -1.633 0.3228 -1.165
Untended Land Crumbles 1305 30.36 42.15% -1.712 0.297 -1.363

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8650 40.82% 38.72 74.17% 0.108 0.9263 0.578
B 8546 41.03% 39.54 74.1% -0.195 0.566 0.859
C 9977 40.53% 41.83 74.95% 0.476 1.029 1.078
D 7511 40.36% 38.91 74.64% 0.012 0.7787 0.867
E 8867 40.88% 40.43 74.76% 0.342 0.9683 0.92
F 7055 42.49% 39.39 72.67% -0.052 0.6693 0.812
G 6194 42.07% 39.09 73.99% 0.271 0.9529 0.821
H 6333 42.06% 39.73 74.44% 0.082 0.763 1.004
East 1573 32.93% 53.15 75.33% -0.612 -0.0056 -0.877
Northeast 970 30.82% 56.19 77.11% 0.042 0.7353 -0.73
Northwest 771 34.16% 53.13 72.37% -0.903 -0.4243 -0.83
Southeast 631 30.9% 52.17 75.91% 0.008 0.692 -0.767
Southwest 548 30.29% 49.26 77.74% 0.078 1.1163 -1.019
West 1425 33.15% 52.74 74.25% 0.761 1.599 -0.447

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 243 0.0% 23.88 72.84% -1.622 0.5907 -0.685
Not Using Events or Tokens 325 30.17% 32.24 82.46% -0.035 0.1652 -0.313
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1268 12.98% 59.95 89.67% 0.738 -0.5053 0.209
Start of Game Growth 1582 15.91% 56.4 88.31% 0.48 0.1021 -0.108
Unlimited Undo 4516 35.17% 48.81 83.1% 0.807 0.3308 1.118
Using Tokens but Not Events 3650 26.19% 34.37 81.12% -0.524 -0.3506 -0.032

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2560 100.0% 49.5 100.0% 0.316 0.1885 0.511
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 587 100.0% 36.69 100.0% -0.735 -0.6684 0.179
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 592 100.0% 33.09 100.0% 0.099 -0.1604 -0.368
Downpour Drenches the World 244 100.0% 52.94 100.0% -0.293 0.0751 -0.006
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1598 100.0% 40.08 100.0% 1.578 1.079 0.193
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 626 100.0% 36.59 100.0% 0.275 -0.2034 -0.007
Finder of Paths Unseen 215 100.0% 55.54 100.0% 1.182 1.5417 1.428
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 390 100.0% 38.94 100.0% -0.416 -0.4602 -0.622
Heart of the Wildfire 776 100.0% 37.69 100.0% -0.262 0.0532 -0.137
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1863 100.0% 44.73 100.0% 0.409 -0.1452 0.325
Lightning's Swift Strike 355 300.0% 32.41 152.39% -0.585 -0.2527 0.281
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 75 33.78% 57.68 92.0% 1.193 0.3103 0.735
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 509 39.1% 40.8 83.1% 0.143 -0.3423 0.667
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 546 33.39% 45.64 82.78% 0.092 -0.4286 0.699
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1522 100.0% 44.26 100.0% -0.142 -0.2189 0.432
Many Minds Move as One 903 100.0% 38.97 100.0% 0.377 -0.2461 0.554
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1138 100.0% 43.88 100.0% -0.015 -0.1452 -0.072
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 667 100.0% 36.09 100.0% -0.297 -0.3007 0.34
River Surges in Sunlight 1020 145.74% 46.83 112.35% -0.218 -0.3726 0.491
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 549 30.29% 47.91 83.06% -0.078 0.3353 0.187
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 138 38.41% 55.47 76.09% -0.022 -0.4325 0.14
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2673 100.0% 55.76 100.0% 0.561 0.4494 0.33
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 129 375.94% 28.78 216.28% -0.38 0.0588 -0.783
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 25 37.5% 31.4 76.0% -0.355 -0.3671 -0.228
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 14 57.14% 35.86 78.57% 0.555 0.643 0.278
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 352 40.57% 36.89 76.99% -0.225 -0.2432 -0.327
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 241 42.5% 33.38 75.1% 0.036 0.0716 -0.92
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 799 100.0% 42.52 100.0% -0.002 -0.1662 -0.015
Shifting Memory of Ages 997 100.0% 50.76 100.0% -0.437 -0.2653 -0.481
Shroud of Silent Mist 470 100.0% 37.35 100.0% -0.639 -0.4371 -0.56
Starlight Seeks its Form 1067 100.0% 46.87 100.0% -0.082 -0.1672 -0.144
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1327 100.0% 38.3 100.0% -0.644 -0.8482 -0.424
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 665 100.0% 40.93 100.0% -0.035 0.0889 0.667
Thunderspeaker 1249 100.0% 42.32 100.0% -0.465 -0.546 -0.323
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 775 100.0% 36.19 100.0% -0.561 -0.8143 -0.027
Vital Strength of the Earth 420 156.67% 34.99 136.9% 0.075 0.9314 -0.811
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 137 43.07% 57.77 62.77% -0.822 -0.277 -0.763
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 293 45.39% 34.85 64.51% 0.284 1.5022 -0.853
Volcano Looming High 853 100.0% 38.9 100.0% 0.602 0.5993 0.038

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.69%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.37%
Pour Time Sideways 32.79%
The Past Returns Again 71.31%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6267 22.69 23.81%
II 15638 31.12 69.55%
III 12503 34.69 86.27%
IV 4561 37.96 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1465
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10543
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9979
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4488
Lose: Invader deck ran out 851
Lose: Adversary condition 3638
Win: Sacrifice victory 351
Lose: Scenario condition 210
Win: Scenario condition 877
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5707
Lose: Spirit destroyed 860

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.754 Win Model: -0.083

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.156 Win Model: 0.125
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 22593 48.36% 38.07 66.14%
2 8680 42.46% 37.42 75.7%
3 3806 39.91% 41.13 76.9%
4 3105 29.17% 48.24 83.54%
5 173 21.39% 36.25 79.77%
6 612 23.28% 54.6 86.6%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)