Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 20.0% 29.2 100.0% 0.149 0.6443 0.0
Blitz 0 155 44.16% 31.75 69.68% -0.933 -0.4903 -0.499
Dahan Insurrection 4 934 23.02% 79.04 77.09% 0.96 1.0568 0.963
Despicable Theft 2 64 50.0% 39.0 73.44% -0.194 0.3049 0.043
Elemental Invocation 1 113 48.67% 31.23 62.83% -0.692 -0.1464 -0.655
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1523 12.5% 57.71 83.19% -0.052 0.1798 -0.107
Powers Long Forgotten 1 167 52.1% 36.87 65.87% -0.383 0.0241 0.554
Rituals of Terror 3 103 54.37% 53.07 67.96% 0.171 -0.0645 0.748
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 45 77.78% 36.02 51.11% 0.0 0.2262 -0.252
Second Wave 0 999 33.06% 28.84 77.58% -0.299 0.3934 -1.459
The Great River 3 55 54.55% 31.62 43.64% 0.097 1.6786 -0.356
Varied Terrains 2 12 58.33% 45.58 83.33% 0.304 1.0906 -0.137
Ward the Shores 2 119 40.34% 37.58 68.91% -0.068 0.8126 -1.305

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 21202 48.19% 37.91 66.49% -0.108 0.5551 0.097
1 Thematic 828 53.11% 35.23 60.39% -0.166 0.8907 0.835
2 Archipelago 38 71.05% 51.03 47.37% -0.68 -0.2087 -1.393
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5863 44.03% 38.21 75.51% 0.183 0.7015 -0.182
2 Coastline 722 38.13% 36.57 79.36% 0.49 0.6906 -0.244
2 Fragment 151 56.67% 37.72 68.87% -0.31 -0.0114 0.437
2 Heart 104 41.35% 42.29 52.88% -0.355 0.1051 -1.714
2 Opposite Shores 1124 35.37% 33.31 77.94% 0.123 0.6615 -0.741
2 Thematic 319 41.38% 37.38 67.71% 0.631 1.4131 -0.575
2 Top to Top 177 40.34% 40.44 74.01% 0.303 0.4305 -0.568
3 Archipelago 14 35.71% 42.07 78.57% 0.183 -0.0358 0.422
3 Coastline 27 29.63% 40.48 92.59% 1.067 0.5598 0.467
3 Other 198 35.86% 34.4 84.34% 0.736 0.0716 0.04
3 Round (Default) 3304 40.1% 40.17 76.3% -0.124 0.1807 -0.925
3 Sunrise 20 55.0% 37.45 90.0% 0.264 0.7237 0.033
3 Thematic 147 36.05% 61.44 73.47% -0.267 -0.0595 0.003
4 Archipelago 19 52.63% 45.63 73.68% 0.405 0.368 -0.28
4 Coastline 21 10.0% 36.86 80.95% 0.0 -0.0373 0.365
4 Leaf 14 42.86% 45.43 85.71% 0.0 -0.1019 -0.314
4 Other 225 24.89% 45.64 84.89% -0.242 -0.9562 -0.768
4 Thematic 631 19.65% 64.97 87.8% -0.284 -0.1801 -0.712
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2147 32.43% 43.27 81.97% -0.479 -0.4018 -1.408
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 59.75 75.0% 0.059 -0.0382 0.106
5 Coastline 10 0.0% 40.2 100.0% 0.072 -0.5155 0.166
5 Other 187 24.19% 42.85 82.35% -0.968 -1.4847 -1.184
5 Thematic 62 48.39% 57.31 58.06% -0.33 -0.6172 -0.95
6 Archipelago 21 9.52% 53.48 85.71% -0.948 -1.0943 -0.866
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 81 18.75% 43.62 87.65% -0.842 -0.7972 -2.126
6 Star 31 41.94% 43.58 74.19% -0.273 0.4971 -1.872
6 Thematic 126 26.98% 48.25 75.4% -0.863 -0.6218 -2.069
6 Two Centers (Default) 304 21.71% 60.07 89.47% -0.818 -0.6266 -1.318
7 Archipelago 9 22.22% 67.89 100.0% 0.147 0.2963 0.021
7 Other 4 25.0% 32.75 75.0% 0.303 -0.181 -1.221

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1189 34.89 47.1% -1.598 0.3732 -1.064
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1078 37.47 50.19% -1.147 0.6305 -0.95
All Things Weaken 1399 32.26 42.82% -1.711 0.3378 -1.208
Back Against the Wall 1179 36.77 50.81% -0.977 0.9623 -0.937
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1122 32.47 46.35% -1.592 0.5357 -1.116
Downward Spiral 1252 32.84 47.68% -1.954 0.0071 -1.095
Erosion of Will 1198 34.18 44.49% -1.766 0.3155 -1.291
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 470 42.14 76.81% -0.857 -0.3551 -0.198
Memory Fades to Dust 1332 33.81 49.32% -1.279 0.8616 -1.013
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1245 31.86 47.23% -1.918 0.0625 -1.378
Promising Farmlands 1122 33.02 42.78% -1.642 0.38 -1.294
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 339 42.86 82.01% -0.402 0.0947 0.126
Thriving Communities 1246 34.63 47.75% -1.718 0.3412 -0.964
Unnatural Proliferation 1321 34.86 44.66% -1.593 0.3642 -1.14
Untended Land Crumbles 1279 30.19 41.59% -2.245 -0.2114 -1.37

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8448 40.79% 38.63 74.21% 0.35 1.0859 0.569
B 8351 41.0% 39.48 74.1% -0.088 0.6092 0.855
C 9696 40.66% 41.4 74.77% 0.605 1.0751 1.033
D 7328 40.24% 38.86 74.71% 0.424 1.1331 0.851
E 8668 40.88% 40.33 74.65% 0.287 0.8311 0.9
F 6885 42.55% 39.25 72.68% 0.21 0.8712 0.807
G 6058 42.06% 38.98 74.02% 0.198 0.8289 0.817
H 6189 42.1% 39.64 74.36% -0.105 0.5599 0.987
East 1548 32.62% 53.27 75.58% -0.201 0.4607 -0.867
Northeast 955 30.26% 56.44 77.7% 0.399 1.059 -0.746
Northwest 755 33.82% 53.4 72.98% -0.74 -0.13 -0.772
Southeast 620 30.65% 52.25 75.97% -0.205 0.3261 -0.77
Southwest 539 29.87% 49.39 78.29% -0.442 0.5261 -0.999
West 1405 32.83% 52.92 74.66% -0.089 0.7162 -0.415

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 212 0.0% 24.32 74.53% -0.286 1.9433 -0.691
Not Using Events or Tokens 310 31.79% 31.38 81.61% -0.93 -0.7039 -0.336
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1252 13.15% 59.93 89.62% 0.425 -0.5548 0.313
Start of Game Growth 1561 15.99% 56.44 88.21% 0.154 -0.3027 -0.093
Unlimited Undo 4435 35.33% 48.88 83.09% 0.461 -0.091 1.116
Using Tokens but Not Events 3565 26.16% 34.44 81.32% -0.05 0.1049 -0.004

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2482 100.0% 49.41 100.0% 0.845 0.7695 0.519
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 581 100.0% 36.71 100.0% 0.159 0.2373 0.169
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 574 100.0% 33.02 100.0% 0.73 0.5052 -0.325
Downpour Drenches the World 209 100.0% 53.18 100.0% -0.114 0.1512 -0.027
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1575 100.0% 39.95 100.0% 0.662 0.1591 0.176
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 613 100.0% 36.56 100.0% 0.141 -0.4455 -0.005
Finder of Paths Unseen 179 100.0% 55.92 100.0% 0.582 0.9378 1.322
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 370 100.0% 38.98 100.0% -0.601 -0.6957 -0.595
Heart of the Wildfire 764 100.0% 37.84 100.0% -0.939 -0.5336 -0.131
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1807 100.0% 44.68 100.0% 0.477 -0.1263 0.336
Lightning's Swift Strike 349 297.17% 32.52 152.72% -0.864 -0.4994 0.264
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 58 36.21% 54.19 91.38% 0.802 0.0533 0.698
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 502 38.84% 40.66 83.07% -0.412 -0.9761 0.626
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 537 33.96% 45.52 82.5% -0.139 -0.633 0.679
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1486 100.0% 44.08 100.0% 0.052 -0.0996 0.449
Many Minds Move as One 883 100.0% 38.93 100.0% 0.394 -0.192 0.537
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1115 100.0% 43.89 100.0% -0.329 -0.4982 -0.046
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 653 100.0% 36.01 100.0% -0.534 -0.5899 0.368
River Surges in Sunlight 1013 144.87% 46.95 112.34% -0.108 -0.1822 0.501
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 546 30.28% 47.87 82.97% 0.159 0.5857 0.178
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 122 38.52% 55.32 73.77% -0.301 -0.6421 0.1
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2596 100.0% 55.81 100.0% 0.334 0.1401 0.344
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 125 383.46% 28.38 216.8% -0.565 -0.0902 -0.782
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 20 40.0% 31.75 75.0% 0.177 0.3567 -0.245
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 13 53.85% 37.77 76.92% -0.035 0.0203 0.279
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 347 40.75% 36.97 77.23% 0.013 -0.0097 -0.319
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 239 42.44% 33.43 75.31% -0.127 -0.0116 -0.896
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 774 100.0% 42.66 100.0% 0.283 0.0918 -0.019
Shifting Memory of Ages 949 100.0% 50.79 100.0% 0.214 0.4284 -0.455
Shroud of Silent Mist 462 100.0% 37.54 100.0% -0.101 0.0334 -0.531
Starlight Seeks its Form 996 100.0% 46.89 100.0% -0.455 -0.57 -0.175
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1304 100.0% 38.39 100.0% 0.085 -0.1543 -0.423
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 645 100.0% 40.99 100.0% 0.508 0.6386 0.673
Thunderspeaker 1223 100.0% 42.2 100.0% -0.087 -0.1038 -0.311
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 761 100.0% 36.21 100.0% -0.493 -0.7085 0.053
Vital Strength of the Earth 416 155.29% 35.02 135.1% -0.701 0.197 -0.821
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 121 40.5% 59.98 64.46% -0.09 0.3332 -0.647
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 287 44.95% 34.68 64.11% 0.383 1.4974 -0.94
Volcano Looming High 834 100.0% 38.74 100.0% 0.159 0.1382 0.002

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.7%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.35%
Pour Time Sideways 32.71%
The Past Returns Again 71.37%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6153 22.65 23.99%
II 15278 31.08 69.44%
III 12262 34.66 86.23%
IV 4473 37.91 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1449
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10336
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9787
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4402
Lose: Invader deck ran out 836
Lose: Adversary condition 3566
Win: Sacrifice victory 344
Lose: Scenario condition 207
Win: Scenario condition 800
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5592
Lose: Spirit destroyed 847

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.301 Win Model: -0.108

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.274 Win Model: 0.221
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 22170 48.42% 37.88 66.07%
2 8518 42.46% 37.43 75.69%
3 3714 39.74% 41.04 76.9%
4 3037 28.78% 48.32 84.03%
5 162 21.6% 35.69 79.01%
6 565 23.05% 54.48 86.19%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)