Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 21.43% 17.79 50.0% -0.734 -0.9385 -0.969
Blitz 0 187 39.25% 29.99 63.64% -0.185 -0.0321 -0.475
Dahan Insurrection 4 1081 22.2% 78.27 75.58% 0.472 0.2321 1.159
Despicable Theft 2 83 45.78% 32.89 60.24% -0.97 -0.1942 -0.019
Elemental Invocation 1 137 47.45% 28.42 54.01% -1.07 -0.2876 -0.577
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1611 12.75% 56.62 82.06% 0.444 -0.1711 0.275
Powers Long Forgotten 1 187 50.27% 35.31 63.64% 0.296 0.8085 -0.122
Rituals of Terror 3 109 53.7% 50.72 65.14% -0.729 -0.6612 0.601
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 68.33% 32.48 43.33% -0.62 0.3794 -1.262
Second Wave 0 1119 33.12% 28.67 77.12% 0.63 0.6963 -1.124
The Great River 3 64 50.0% 28.61 39.06% -1.153 0.201 -0.869
Varied Terrains 2 29 44.83% 30.62 51.72% -0.436 0.1095 -1.488
Ward the Shores 2 131 41.22% 37.03 67.94% 0.582 1.7325 -1.307

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 23274 46.85% 36.56 64.01% 0.167 0.3916 0.078
1 Thematic 885 51.25% 34.25 58.42% -0.113 0.5088 0.861
2 Archipelago 50 56.0% 43.04 42.0% -0.739 -0.3259 -1.287
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6395 43.49% 37.24 73.65% 0.37 0.5187 -0.143
2 Coastline 795 37.44% 34.87 76.1% -0.057 -0.0231 -0.068
2 Fragment 166 56.36% 36.3 65.06% 0.34 0.2596 0.356
2 Heart 114 44.74% 40.44 53.51% 0.502 0.1486 -1.482
2 Opposite Shores 1252 34.49% 32.24 75.32% 0.278 0.3834 -0.56
2 Thematic 379 38.52% 34.6 60.69% -0.281 0.3991 -0.835
2 Top to Top 199 41.92% 39.54 72.86% 0.699 0.685 -0.429
3 Archipelago 19 36.84% 41.05 68.42% -0.673 -2.0848 -0.047
3 Coastline 34 30.3% 36.15 79.41% -0.09 -0.5742 0.644
3 Other 217 35.48% 32.89 80.65% 0.168 0.3427 0.141
3 Round (Default) 3668 40.05% 39.48 74.67% 0.278 0.1499 -0.819
3 Sunrise 21 57.14% 39.0 90.48% 0.0 0.1412 0.112
3 Thematic 162 35.8% 59.23 72.22% 0.603 0.6334 0.079
4 Archipelago 27 48.15% 43.93 66.67% -0.207 -0.7821 -0.396
4 Coastline 21 10.0% 36.86 80.95% -0.077 0.2322 0.493
4 Leaf 16 43.75% 47.38 81.25% 0.0 -0.6261 -0.693
4 Other 235 25.96% 44.67 84.68% 0.754 -0.3092 -0.541
4 Thematic 659 20.03% 63.09 85.28% -0.489 -0.5663 -0.772
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2371 31.96% 42.12 80.05% 0.083 -0.164 -1.255
5 Archipelago 13 46.15% 56.0 69.23% -0.045 -1.0924 -0.724
5 Coastline 13 0.0% 33.15 84.62% -0.222 -0.3319 0.234
5 Other 234 23.48% 40.27 76.5% -0.339 -0.9607 -1.555
5 Thematic 67 46.27% 56.37 58.21% -0.214 -0.3362 -0.81
6 Archipelago 41 9.76% 56.22 80.49% -1.005 -0.824 -2.438
6 Coastline 5 0.0% 24.4 60.0% -0.402 -1.2501 -1.215
6 Other 111 20.91% 42.32 84.68% -0.629 -1.0998 -2.256
6 Star 44 34.09% 37.66 65.91% -0.773 -0.7309 -1.942
6 Thematic 177 27.84% 41.21 63.84% -1.231 -0.8822 -2.019
6 Two Centers (Default) 519 17.76% 49.9 73.99% -1.231 -1.3389 -2.443
7 Archipelago 10 20.0% 61.1 90.0% -0.046 -0.4167 0.116
7 Other 11 18.18% 14.64 36.36% -1.096 -2.0349 -1.703

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1266 34.7 46.92% 0.134 0.3448 -0.849
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1146 37.48 49.91% 0.603 0.5714 -0.689
All Things Weaken 1475 32.24 42.78% -0.02 0.392 -0.932
Attenuated Essence 39 27.03 33.33% -0.13 0.023 -1.219
Back Against the Wall 1229 36.51 50.2% -0.269 -0.1615 -0.674
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 34 22.53 26.47% -0.667 -0.3285 -1.777
Burn Brightest Before the End 35 34.14 48.57% 0.328 0.5658 -1.066
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1206 32.41 46.1% 0.096 0.5672 -0.851
Downward Spiral 1349 32.38 46.85% -0.094 0.193 -0.872
Erosion of Will 1270 34.12 44.17% 0.231 0.5797 -1.031
Intensifying Exploitation 23 26.7 30.43% -0.135 0.2108 -0.823
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 508 41.18 74.61% 0.162 -0.366 -0.011
Memory Fades to Dust 1387 33.62 49.39% -0.166 0.251 -0.767
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1339 31.44 46.15% -0.171 0.0881 -1.158
Promising Farmlands 1205 32.62 41.99% -0.328 0.1907 -1.107
Shattered Fragments of Power 24 30.63 37.5% -0.128 -0.0185 -0.356
Slow Dissolution of Will 27 21.3 33.33% -0.456 0.0169 -0.933
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 371 42.16 80.86% 0.615 -0.0022 0.262
The Border of Life and Death 12 23.42 50.0% 0.027 -0.2763 0.007
Thriving Communities 1325 34.06 47.02% -0.044 0.3564 -0.756
Thriving Crops 18 40.28 66.67% 0.872 0.8446 -0.173
Unnatural Proliferation 1406 34.31 44.17% -0.211 0.0258 -0.924
Untended Land Crumbles 1356 30.32 41.74% 0.024 0.3256 -1.127

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9575 39.46% 37.31 71.35% 0.188 1.0378 0.503
B 9356 39.57% 38.17 71.58% -0.022 0.7905 0.797
C 10905 39.24% 40.25 72.29% 0.19 0.8743 1.029
D 8275 39.25% 37.54 71.6% 0.012 0.8364 0.679
E 9705 39.63% 39.09 72.12% 0.326 0.9742 0.848
F 7741 40.88% 38.07 70.16% -0.089 0.6571 0.752
G 6849 41.03% 37.84 71.34% 0.289 1.0554 0.755
H 6963 40.66% 38.4 71.81% 0.323 1.0035 0.942
East 1729 32.06% 50.24 71.2% -0.362 0.2824 -0.963
Northeast 1065 30.55% 53.24 73.43% -0.33 0.4889 -0.824
Northwest 853 33.61% 50.25 68.82% -0.05 0.6817 -0.696
Southeast 731 29.86% 47.75 68.95% -0.969 -0.2393 -1.08
Southwest 635 29.18% 44.81 70.87% -0.213 0.8801 -1.066
West 1565 32.25% 49.78 70.42% 0.198 1.1518 -0.048

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 299 0.0% 21.62 64.21% -1.074 -0.2403 -0.338
Not Using Events or Tokens 361 28.4% 31.16 80.33% 0.996 1.3253 -0.347
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1433 12.81% 56.92 84.37% 0.057 -0.5287 -0.779
Start of Game Growth 1792 15.67% 53.34 83.04% 0.106 -0.1645 -0.041
Unlimited Undo 4899 34.48% 47.01 79.36% -0.267 -0.2742 1.116
Using Tokens but Not Events 3981 25.44% 32.97 78.07% 0.082 0.0122 -0.183

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2844 100.0% 48.24 100.0% 0.521 0.3731 0.554
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 652 100.0% 34.73 100.0% -0.008 0.0999 0.103
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 636 100.0% 31.89 100.0% -0.412 -0.5823 -0.183
Downpour Drenches the World 355 100.0% 46.08 100.0% 0.345 0.5388 0.31
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 169 100.0% 27.64 100.0% 0.26 -0.5212 -0.046
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1683 100.0% 39.33 100.0% 0.359 -0.2285 0.308
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 683 100.0% 35.41 100.0% 0.402 -0.0802 0.106
Finder of Paths Unseen 341 100.0% 45.41 100.0% -0.379 0.3046 0.943
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 459 100.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.097 0.0091 -0.426
Heart of the Wildfire 828 100.0% 36.71 100.0% -0.179 0.0756 -0.053
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2053 100.0% 43.49 100.0% 0.346 -0.0772 0.252
Lightning's Swift Strike 392 304.77% 31.0 167.86% -0.068 0.1638 0.52
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 156 41.29% 48.41 67.31% 0.358 -0.3094 -0.178
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 539 37.55% 39.15 80.15% -0.952 -1.1675 0.755
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 577 32.29% 44.96 81.28% 0.247 0.1213 0.743
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1662 100.0% 42.96 100.0% 0.281 0.1499 0.372
Many Minds Move as One 958 100.0% 38.37 100.0% 0.077 -0.1222 0.885
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1238 100.0% 42.06 100.0% -0.206 -0.2149 0.047
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 715 100.0% 34.67 100.0% -0.614 -0.7625 0.388
River Surges in Sunlight 1069 148.93% 46.03 114.69% 0.882 0.9175 0.629
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 571 29.82% 46.96 82.49% 1.042 1.3053 0.571
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 188 33.69% 47.87 69.68% 0.15 0.0372 0.062
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3019 100.0% 53.4 100.0% 0.289 0.0655 0.412
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 139 370.34% 28.02 226.62% -0.04 0.4255 -0.62
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 29 42.86% 34.86 75.86% 0.323 0.2967 0.463
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 22 50.0% 30.0 63.64% 0.053 -0.0013 -0.247
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 365 40.61% 36.19 76.16% 0.238 0.1871 -0.184
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 257 41.18% 31.6 71.21% -1.007 -0.9544 -1.108
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 835 104.43% 41.79 101.8% 0.151 0.0298 0.155
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 39 5.13% 29.0 61.54% 0.669 0.2435 -1.453
Shifting Memory of Ages 1224 100.0% 45.98 100.0% -0.261 0.126 -0.362
Shroud of Silent Mist 515 100.0% 35.55 100.0% -0.336 -0.0243 -0.553
Starlight Seeks its Form 1358 100.0% 43.58 100.0% 0.396 0.1369 -0.019
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1452 100.0% 37.38 100.0% 0.339 -0.1556 -0.264
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 738 100.0% 38.25 100.0% -0.342 -0.291 0.503
Thunderspeaker 1341 101.42% 41.48 101.34% 0.432 0.4141 -0.069
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 32 40.63% 21.19 43.75% -0.059 -0.1642 -0.779
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 877 100.0% 35.57 100.0% -0.027 0.02 -0.051
Vital Strength of the Earth 450 164.0% 33.41 146.0% -0.99 -0.444 -0.696
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 194 39.18% 47.01 52.58% -1.123 -0.8467 -0.744
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 307 44.63% 33.85 62.54% -0.703 0.1807 -0.608
Volcano Looming High 926 100.0% 37.81 100.0% -0.205 -0.1869 0.013

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.79%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.33%
Pour Time Sideways 34.36%
The Past Returns Again 71.81%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7924 20.82 19.69%
II 16483 31.03 69.06%
III 13103 34.74 86.32%
IV 4737 38.03 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1531
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11059
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10450
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4662
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1495
Lose: Invader deck ran out 889
Lose: Adversary condition 3813
Win: Sacrifice victory 370
Lose: Scenario condition 217
Win: Scenario condition 904
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5958
Lose: Spirit destroyed 899

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.59 Win Model: -0.062

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.423 Win Model: 0.317
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 24357 47.05% 36.52 63.55%
2 9339 41.82% 36.33 73.55%
3 4122 39.67% 40.19 75.11%
4 3310 28.96% 46.93 81.84%
5 221 19.27% 33.95 73.76%
6 898 20.22% 46.95 73.5%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)