Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 85 38.82% 34.66 -1.399 71.76% 0.119 0.6924
Dahan Insurrection 4 392 16.33% 78.62 17.481 90.56% 0.867 1.2672
Despicable Theft 2 28 46.43% 40.75 1.995 82.14% 0.331 0.6137
Elemental Invocation 1 62 50.0% 31.77 -2.523 59.68% -0.895 -0.455
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 934 11.58% 56.96 4.943 85.65% -0.175 0.1911
Powers Long Forgotten 1 114 54.39% 36.1 -0.417 62.28% -0.729 -0.2875
Rituals of Terror 3 50 52.0% 41.58 2.312 68.0% -0.573 0.0704
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 30 80.0% 38.03 3.211 56.67% 0.045 0.6864
Second Wave 0 474 39.36% 28.67 -3.875 72.36% -0.688 -0.2594
The Great River 3 34 52.94% 32.44 -0.713 44.12% -1.759 -0.2998
Ward the Shores 2 76 40.79% 36.36 -1.231 61.84% -1.023 0.0139

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 13237 48.66% 37.01 -0.182 65.91% -0.436 -0.1028
1 Thematic 529 50.57% 34.97 -0.801 64.27% -0.353 0.1453
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3478 44.92% 37.95 -0.029 75.27% -0.164 0.0364
2 Coastline 428 37.26% 37.19 -0.485 80.61% -0.005 0.15
2 Fragment 105 56.73% 40.3 1.215 75.24% 0.337 0.7327
2 Heart 41 43.9% 38.9 0.326 75.61% -0.005 0.317
2 Opposite Shores 670 30.94% 32.62 -2.534 79.55% -0.369 -0.1402
2 Thematic 198 41.92% 35.47 -1.152 70.71% -0.306 -0.2452
2 Top to Top 88 43.68% 40.0 -0.079 69.32% -0.487 -0.355
3 Coastline 19 31.58% 45.58 2.943 94.74% 0.63 0.5921
3 Other 133 35.34% 35.48 -1.614 84.96% 0.167 0.5872
3 Round (Default) 1964 38.86% 40.33 0.149 77.6% -0.362 -0.3063
3 Sunrise 14 57.14% 39.07 0.23 85.71% 0.656 0.4619
3 Thematic 85 30.59% 73.91 8.666 82.35% -0.203 -0.5324
4 Coastline 8 12.5% 49.25 2.163 87.5% -0.434 -0.3083
4 Leaf 6 66.67% 43.17 2.897 83.33% 0.134 0.1802
4 Other 158 22.78% 47.71 1.961 88.61% -0.151 -0.0391
4 Thematic 426 17.14% 64.33 4.575 92.02% 0.284 -0.7404
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1316 30.26% 41.89 0.088 83.81% -0.457 -0.4227
5 Other 49 32.65% 54.04 3.98 93.88% 0.677 0.4222
5 Thematic 8 37.5% 69.5 7.282 100.0% 0.882 -2.0614

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 740 33.49 -3.414 45.14% -2.228 -0.1541
Aid From Lesser Spirits 634 35.62 -2.373 48.26% -2.071 -0.1522
All Things Weaken 881 32.34 -3.831 43.7% -2.276 -0.1174
Back Against the Wall 708 35.7 -2.48 50.56% -1.998 0.0958
Disintegrating Ecosystem 694 31.56 -4.314 45.39% -2.189 0.0359
Downward Spiral 778 32.1 -3.76 48.07% -2.067 -0.0457
Erosion of Will 736 34.17 -3.135 45.52% -2.128 0.0804
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 282 41.34 0.662 76.6% -0.792 -0.0995
Memory Fades to Dust 794 33.16 -3.483 49.24% -2.11 0.108
Power Corrodes the Spirit 747 30.73 -4.403 46.99% -2.211 -0.1896
Promising Farmlands 683 31.77 -4.334 42.46% -2.311 -0.0969
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 177 41.95 1.184 84.18% -0.316 0.0954
Thriving Communities 749 32.97 -3.564 46.06% -2.155 -0.0616
Unnatural Proliferation 813 33.17 -3.447 43.17% -2.324 -0.2348
Untended Land Crumbles 755 29.72 -4.945 42.12% -2.386 -0.2803

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2987 44.42% 35.94 -0.899 71.44% 0.201 -0.9116
B 2928 45.25% 37.48 -0.248 70.32% 0.205 -1.0033
C 3493 45.08% 39.06 0.43 70.03% 0.216 -1.2229
D 2453 44.45% 36.46 -0.557 70.16% 0.141 -1.0604
E 3265 43.59% 38.72 0.379 72.5% 0.323 -0.9895
F 2495 46.88% 38.33 0.103 69.34% 0.204 -1.0618
G 2088 45.89% 37.29 -0.327 70.11% 0.173 -1.0836
H 2179 45.81% 38.46 0.173 71.41% 0.291 -0.9744
East 186 33.87% 46.28 1.506 77.96% -0.24 -1.2211
Northeast 228 37.28% 44.13 1.357 78.95% 0.073 -0.8582
Northwest 185 34.78% 52.66 2.329 75.14% -0.422 -1.4216
Southeast 105 34.29% 41.92 -0.202 71.43% -0.269 -1.2946
Southwest 116 38.79% 39.03 -2.386 68.1% -0.665 -1.2853
West 252 23.41% 63.76 4.768 84.92% -0.197 -0.9216

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 105 0.0% 21.49 -8.274 68.57% -2.192 -0.1374
Not Using Events or Tokens 146 40.16% 32.9 -2.645 77.4% 0.005 0.2229
Skip Initial Invader Actions 760 12.17% 59.51 4.565 88.55% 0.296 -0.3979
Start of Game Growth 946 14.84% 56.04 3.428 87.63% 0.113 -0.3498
Unlimited Undo 2473 34.23% 45.92 2.502 83.66% 0.765 0.3443
Using Tokens but Not Events 2135 25.87% 33.38 -1.795 82.48% -0.034 -0.0865

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1360 27.74% 47.69 1.686 84.41% 0.198 0.3306
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 389 48.96% 36.66 -1.36 73.01% -0.236 -0.0072
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 367 44.93% 33.43 -2.165 76.57% -0.147 -0.2333
Eyes Watch From the Trees 920 28.57% 39.89 0.725 85.87% 0.363 -0.0097
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 369 35.89% 36.85 -0.687 82.11% 0.229 -0.0311
Heart of the Wildfire 507 45.42% 40.42 -0.445 77.32% -0.002 0.3486
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1092 31.19% 42.96 0.97 82.69% 0.192 -0.112
Lightning's Swift Strike 962 38.07% 40.62 0.5 81.7% 0.23 0.4889
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 870 31.14% 45.11 0.925 82.53% 0.048 -0.2252
Many Minds Move as One 543 36.85% 39.16 -0.234 82.87% 0.201 -0.3142
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 676 34.18% 43.3 0.147 78.55% -0.267 -0.4628
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 391 41.97% 36.91 -0.372 82.1% 0.297 0.3425
River Surges in Sunlight 950 35.03% 45.09 1.931 84.42% 0.288 0.4402
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1441 25.0% 54.82 4.33 83.76% 0.089 0.2338
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 526 44.0% 34.31 -1.991 75.67% -0.179 0.2615
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 489 29.45% 43.64 0.573 81.8% -0.005 -0.0762
Shroud of Silent Mist 191 37.7% 42.68 -0.539 81.15% -0.15 -0.1702
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 741 38.73% 38.32 -1.159 75.3% -0.295 -0.3153
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 403 29.93% 42.0 0.944 87.34% 0.562 0.7647
Thunderspeaker 683 36.97% 40.7 -0.214 76.57% -0.248 -0.1971
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 460 56.89% 37.33 -1.208 71.3% -0.13 -0.122
Vital Strength of the Earth 464 39.31% 34.93 -2.35 70.47% -0.66 0.2103
Volcano Looming High 417 45.54% 40.71 -0.588 75.06% -0.079 -0.1028

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.99%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.41%
Pour Time Sideways 31.98%
The Past Returns Again 72.12%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3508 22.34 24.74%
II 9220 30.81 68.46%
III 7458 34.31 85.33%
IV 2774 37.5 99.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 857
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6232
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5905
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2724
Lose: Invader deck ran out 552
Lose: Adversary condition 2014
Win: Sacrifice victory 189
Lose: Scenario condition 114
Win: Scenario condition 402
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3435
Lose: Spirit destroyed 536

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.033 Win Model: -0.137

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.352 Win Model: 0.332
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 13787 48.78% 36.92 65.83%
2 5047 42.39% 37.25 76.18%
3 2214 37.81% 41.57 78.55%
4 1912 26.98% 47.62 86.24%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)