Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 84 38.1% 34.42 -1.459 71.43% 0.032 0.613
Dahan Insurrection 4 322 16.46% 76.47 16.441 90.68% 0.836 1.2397
Despicable Theft 2 11 63.64% 36.0 0.281 63.64% -0.35 -0.0004
Elemental Invocation 1 46 50.0% 33.24 -2.003 60.87% -0.7 -0.328
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 784 12.52% 54.89 4.642 84.57% -0.196 0.1683
Powers Long Forgotten 1 97 56.7% 35.53 -0.703 60.82% -0.811 -0.3694
Rituals of Terror 3 47 51.06% 41.96 2.507 68.09% -0.569 0.0657
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 84.0% 40.92 4.863 64.0% 0.397 1.0374
Second Wave 0 389 41.34% 28.59 -3.817 70.95% -0.709 -0.2853
The Great River 3 32 50.0% 32.47 -0.738 43.75% -1.861 -0.4395
Ward the Shores 2 66 37.88% 36.76 -1.21 63.64% -1.043 -0.002

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 11788 48.76% 36.97 -0.191 65.88% -0.398 -0.0704
1 Thematic 470 49.89% 34.54 -0.73 65.53% -0.26 0.2138
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3132 44.5% 37.77 -0.061 75.73% -0.137 0.0594
2 Coastline 378 39.04% 37.29 -0.356 80.95% 0.095 0.246
2 Fragment 96 55.79% 40.52 1.342 76.04% 0.393 0.7971
2 Heart 39 43.59% 37.74 -0.052 74.36% -0.049 0.2635
2 Opposite Shores 598 32.83% 32.71 -2.385 78.76% -0.354 -0.1303
2 Thematic 177 42.94% 35.36 -1.021 71.75% -0.195 -0.1661
2 Top to Top 76 42.67% 39.88 -0.209 65.79% -0.651 -0.5108
3 Coastline 18 33.33% 47.06 3.545 94.44% 0.651 0.6044
3 Other 97 45.36% 36.08 -1.557 80.41% 0.062 0.5004
3 Round (Default) 1768 39.24% 40.39 0.23 77.6% -0.352 -0.2942
3 Sunrise 13 53.85% 40.38 0.844 92.31% 0.971 0.7736
3 Thematic 77 28.57% 76.09 9.703 81.82% -0.277 -0.6379
4 Coastline 7 14.29% 45.29 0.492 85.71% -0.51 -0.3389
4 Leaf 6 66.67% 43.17 3.122 83.33% 0.15 0.2135
4 Other 143 22.38% 47.89 2.051 88.11% -0.199 -0.0676
4 Thematic 327 18.96% 60.76 3.912 90.52% 0.156 -0.9036
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1152 29.3% 42.09 0.179 83.51% -0.522 -0.4842
5 Other 44 34.09% 55.25 4.335 93.18% 0.616 0.4174
5 Thematic 4 75.0% 65.5 8.458 100.0% 0.841 -2.116

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 661 33.87 -3.254 45.54% -2.214 -0.1431
Aid From Lesser Spirits 580 35.45 -2.399 48.1% -2.073 -0.1513
All Things Weaken 775 32.42 -3.771 44.65% -2.246 -0.0921
Back Against the Wall 635 35.77 -2.38 51.02% -1.985 0.1115
Disintegrating Ecosystem 629 31.77 -4.201 45.15% -2.182 0.044
Downward Spiral 691 32.2 -3.665 48.05% -2.052 -0.033
Erosion of Will 651 34.08 -3.109 45.31% -2.125 0.0857
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 254 41.32 0.729 77.56% -0.72 -0.0266
Memory Fades to Dust 711 33.11 -3.526 48.8% -2.131 0.0845
Power Corrodes the Spirit 658 30.69 -4.363 47.26% -2.206 -0.189
Promising Farmlands 615 31.76 -4.301 42.93% -2.28 -0.0667
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 159 41.07 0.864 83.02% -0.409 0.0208
Thriving Communities 666 32.66 -3.615 46.1% -2.155 -0.059
Unnatural Proliferation 732 33.12 -3.448 43.03% -2.322 -0.2359
Untended Land Crumbles 669 30.26 -4.683 42.6% -2.342 -0.2459

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2688 44.29% 35.93 -0.871 71.39% 0.198 -0.9031
B 2556 45.36% 37.75 -0.127 70.34% 0.218 -0.9786
C 3112 45.98% 38.6 0.298 69.54% 0.216 -1.2128
D 2194 44.75% 36.41 -0.548 70.19% 0.156 -1.0346
E 2899 44.39% 38.97 0.502 72.58% 0.357 -0.9415
F 2229 46.51% 38.3 0.141 69.63% 0.216 -1.038
G 1878 45.64% 37.04 -0.417 69.6% 0.142 -1.1008
H 1958 44.87% 38.65 0.277 72.01% 0.297 -0.9597
East 152 34.21% 42.51 0.377 75.0% -0.466 -1.4262
Northeast 192 40.1% 39.46 0.524 76.04% -0.048 -0.9491
Northwest 144 34.97% 49.13 1.928 76.39% -0.36 -1.3347
Southeast 87 33.33% 40.55 -0.381 71.26% -0.351 -1.3557
Southwest 99 42.42% 36.32 -2.658 67.68% -0.526 -1.126
West 222 24.32% 64.74 5.283 86.04% -0.016 -0.7159

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 90 0.0% 21.07 -8.362 67.78% -2.222 -0.1732
Not Using Events or Tokens 126 43.93% 30.38 -3.488 74.6% -0.053 0.1677
Skip Initial Invader Actions 627 13.61% 58.18 4.635 87.56% 0.303 -0.402
Start of Game Growth 803 16.45% 54.62 3.409 86.67% 0.126 -0.3256
Unlimited Undo 2087 34.51% 45.41 2.497 83.66% 0.762 0.3451
Using Tokens but Not Events 1748 26.42% 32.72 -2.13 82.49% -0.04 -0.091

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1182 28.28% 47.45 1.765 83.84% 0.197 0.3331
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 339 49.4% 36.18 -1.529 71.39% -0.349 -0.1175
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 328 45.71% 33.3 -2.087 76.22% -0.12 -0.2065
Eyes Watch From the Trees 832 27.99% 39.27 0.584 86.3% 0.401 0.0311
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 317 35.35% 36.57 -0.744 82.02% 0.18 -0.0756
Heart of the Wildfire 452 44.64% 40.75 -0.265 77.65% 0.013 0.3623
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 958 31.24% 43.16 1.089 82.67% 0.212 -0.0898
Lightning's Swift Strike 870 38.26% 41.15 0.734 81.95% 0.268 0.5298
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 745 32.17% 44.45 0.79 81.61% 0.011 -0.2788
Many Minds Move as One 485 37.27% 38.16 -0.439 81.65% 0.121 -0.4063
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 613 34.1% 43.13 0.275 77.98% -0.279 -0.4748
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 351 43.06% 36.44 -0.536 81.77% 0.268 0.3125
River Surges in Sunlight 829 36.41% 43.64 1.771 84.32% 0.33 0.4825
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1286 25.45% 54.07 4.267 82.81% 0.058 0.2017
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 483 44.93% 34.07 -1.952 74.95% -0.184 0.2582
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 447 30.2% 43.11 0.402 81.43% 0.006 -0.0658
Shroud of Silent Mist 107 43.93% 36.02 -1.302 81.31% 0.043 0.0203
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 652 39.11% 37.99 -1.229 74.85% -0.327 -0.3475
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 337 32.54% 41.25 0.807 86.94% 0.602 0.811
Thunderspeaker 609 36.8% 40.22 -0.272 76.35% -0.275 -0.2212
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 413 55.85% 37.18 -1.262 70.94% -0.156 -0.1422
Vital Strength of the Earth 406 40.25% 34.85 -2.213 71.18% -0.596 0.2726
Volcano Looming High 325 46.91% 40.2 -0.643 74.15% -0.107 -0.1358

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.92%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.38%
Pour Time Sideways 31.52%
The Past Returns Again 72.22%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3114 22.33 24.95%
II 8179 30.75 68.08%
III 6637 34.25 85.35%
IV 2480 37.47 99.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 767
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5545
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5232
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2436
Lose: Invader deck ran out 477
Lose: Adversary condition 1804
Win: Sacrifice victory 170
Lose: Scenario condition 102
Win: Scenario condition 334
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3066
Lose: Spirit destroyed 477

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.997 Win Model: -0.139

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.341 Win Model: 0.351
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 12276 48.85% 36.87 65.85%
2 4530 42.57% 37.12 76.38%
3 1976 38.5% 41.85 78.34%
4 1628 27.04% 46.57 85.5%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)