Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 25.0% 20.75 58.33% -0.641 -0.7029 -0.857
Blitz 0 184 39.89% 30.48 64.67% 0.126 0.2655 -0.502
Dahan Insurrection 4 1077 22.28% 78.42 75.67% 0.666 0.4932 1.141
Despicable Theft 2 79 45.57% 34.2 63.29% -0.745 -0.078 0.008
Elemental Invocation 1 130 48.46% 28.83 55.38% -1.311 -0.5799 -0.498
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1605 12.8% 56.72 82.18% 0.42 -0.213 0.201
Powers Long Forgotten 1 184 50.0% 35.6 63.59% 0.441 0.9117 -0.181
Rituals of Terror 3 108 54.21% 51.19 65.74% -0.622 -0.6098 0.722
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 57 68.42% 33.07 43.86% -0.816 0.1324 -0.976
Second Wave 0 1100 33.03% 28.7 77.27% 0.892 0.9686 -1.136
The Great River 3 62 50.0% 29.19 40.32% -0.885 0.4817 -0.581
Varied Terrains 2 28 46.43% 31.71 53.57% -0.449 0.1205 -1.494
Ward the Shores 2 131 41.22% 37.03 67.94% 0.608 1.8426 -1.323

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 23031 47.02% 36.78 64.34% 0.084 0.318 0.039
1 Thematic 883 51.37% 34.24 58.44% -0.066 0.5605 0.84
2 Archipelago 50 56.0% 43.04 42.0% -0.901 -0.5121 -1.319
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6332 43.65% 37.34 73.82% 0.315 0.4926 -0.189
2 Coastline 780 37.52% 35.06 76.67% -0.157 -0.0929 -0.131
2 Fragment 165 56.71% 36.52 65.45% 0.381 0.2941 0.323
2 Heart 112 43.75% 40.7 52.68% 0.252 0.0663 -1.53
2 Opposite Shores 1226 34.65% 32.35 75.53% 0.218 0.3801 -0.654
2 Thematic 368 38.86% 35.1 61.68% -0.295 0.3113 -0.959
2 Top to Top 198 41.62% 39.74 73.23% 0.71 0.771 -0.475
3 Archipelago 17 41.18% 41.29 70.59% -0.656 -1.6569 0.517
3 Coastline 34 30.3% 36.15 79.41% -0.304 -0.724 0.545
3 Other 212 35.85% 33.56 82.08% 0.574 0.3781 0.153
3 Round (Default) 3617 40.14% 39.6 74.9% 0.286 0.2684 -0.863
3 Sunrise 21 57.14% 39.0 90.48% 0.0 0.2286 0.127
3 Thematic 161 35.4% 59.19 72.05% 0.31 0.3274 0.12
4 Archipelago 26 50.0% 41.77 65.38% -0.188 -0.3747 -0.462
4 Coastline 21 10.0% 36.86 80.95% -0.126 0.0349 0.49
4 Leaf 16 43.75% 47.38 81.25% 0.0 -0.364 -0.717
4 Other 231 24.68% 45.05 85.28% 0.798 -0.0605 -0.606
4 Thematic 658 20.06% 63.19 85.41% -0.551 -0.54 -0.774
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2350 32.07% 42.24 80.26% 0.209 0.0259 -1.285
5 Archipelago 13 46.15% 56.0 69.23% -0.006 -1.1968 -0.75
5 Coastline 13 0.0% 33.15 84.62% -0.285 -0.2958 0.223
5 Other 227 24.11% 40.82 77.53% -0.365 -0.8267 -1.434
5 Thematic 67 46.27% 56.37 58.21% 0.048 -0.3547 -0.803
6 Archipelago 39 10.26% 57.72 82.05% -0.416 -0.6658 -2.19
6 Coastline 4 0.0% 30.5 75.0% -0.091 -0.7798 -0.749
6 Other 107 20.75% 43.07 85.05% -0.689 -1.1522 -2.292
6 Star 41 36.59% 36.27 63.41% -1.248 -0.7629 -1.987
6 Thematic 167 27.11% 41.65 64.67% -1.523 -1.0739 -2.159
6 Two Centers (Default) 480 18.37% 51.33 76.88% -1.378 -1.2718 -2.282
7 Archipelago 9 22.22% 67.89 100.0% 0.569 -0.0206 0.125
7 Other 11 18.18% 14.64 36.36% -1.176 -1.8559 -1.719

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1259 34.67 46.86% 0.133 0.4053 -0.901
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1139 37.53 49.87% 0.53 0.5941 -0.723
All Things Weaken 1466 32.32 42.84% -0.123 0.3465 -0.977
Attenuated Essence 35 25.46 31.43% -0.272 -0.0123 -1.174
Back Against the Wall 1228 36.54 50.24% -0.41 -0.2279 -0.71
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 28 22.5 28.57% -0.469 -0.0057 -1.626
Burn Brightest Before the End 27 30.85 40.74% -0.059 0.2651 -1.421
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1193 32.34 45.77% -0.272 0.2726 -0.915
Downward Spiral 1338 32.59 47.09% -0.1 0.2567 -0.91
Erosion of Will 1263 34.17 44.1% -0.188 0.2659 -1.069
Intensifying Exploitation 20 27.25 30.0% -0.217 0.1914 -0.659
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 503 41.46 75.15% 0.347 -0.1652 -0.009
Memory Fades to Dust 1382 33.65 49.42% 0.111 0.6112 -0.808
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1324 31.59 46.37% -0.217 0.0931 -1.182
Promising Farmlands 1195 32.75 42.26% -0.249 0.3364 -1.136
Shattered Fragments of Power 22 28.55 36.36% -0.194 0.0091 -0.287
Slow Dissolution of Will 23 20.43 30.43% -0.551 0.0101 -1.218
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 369 42.23 80.76% 0.753 0.0308 0.231
The Border of Life and Death 11 18.45 45.45% -0.111 -0.2192 -0.389
Thriving Communities 1312 34.14 46.95% -0.332 0.175 -0.802
Thriving Crops 17 41.0 70.59% 0.903 1.0207 0.065
Unnatural Proliferation 1398 34.4 44.13% -0.324 -0.0054 -0.962
Untended Land Crumbles 1352 30.3 41.72% 0.016 0.3963 -1.168

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9428 39.74% 37.48 71.72% 0.215 1.0857 0.515
B 9205 39.76% 38.38 71.99% 0.041 0.8442 0.807
C 10777 39.42% 40.43 72.58% 0.146 0.8265 1.045
D 8145 39.51% 37.75 72.04% 0.059 0.8891 0.708
E 9551 39.92% 39.26 72.48% 0.382 1.0379 0.862
F 7630 41.16% 38.32 70.63% 0.084 0.8281 0.779
G 6713 41.26% 38.07 71.82% 0.364 1.1447 0.759
H 6856 41.01% 38.56 72.13% 0.287 0.9747 0.964
East 1706 32.08% 50.56 71.63% -0.219 0.4033 -0.976
Northeast 1048 30.37% 53.59 73.85% -0.546 0.3627 -0.833
Northwest 840 33.29% 50.51 69.17% -0.12 0.5527 -0.692
Southeast 715 29.83% 48.16 69.51% -1.003 -0.3063 -1.055
Southwest 619 29.29% 45.31 71.73% -0.147 1.0539 -0.985
West 1544 32.23% 50.13 70.92% -0.042 0.9404 -0.24

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 296 0.0% 21.46 64.53% -1.303 -0.3968 -0.623
Not Using Events or Tokens 357 28.26% 31.44 80.95% 1.081 1.3967 -0.327
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1393 12.96% 57.65 85.79% 0.145 -0.4161 -0.705
Start of Game Growth 1750 15.81% 53.86 84.17% 0.208 -0.1034 -0.019
Unlimited Undo 4838 34.71% 47.26 79.89% -0.08 -0.1057 1.109
Using Tokens but Not Events 3935 25.59% 33.16 78.5% 0.191 0.1259 -0.145

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2801 100.0% 48.47 100.0% 0.626 0.4743 0.558
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 640 100.0% 35.13 100.0% 0.02 0.1289 0.143
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 627 100.0% 32.07 100.0% -0.321 -0.4808 -0.18
Downpour Drenches the World 341 100.0% 46.36 100.0% 0.299 0.4806 0.241
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 146 100.0% 27.75 100.0% 0.151 -0.5652 -0.047
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1660 100.0% 39.42 100.0% 0.239 -0.3454 0.305
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 666 100.0% 35.49 100.0% 0.238 -0.2408 0.18
Finder of Paths Unseen 322 100.0% 45.92 100.0% -0.354 0.3491 0.941
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 444 100.0% 36.9 100.0% 0.232 0.1354 -0.317
Heart of the Wildfire 821 100.0% 36.9 100.0% -0.045 0.2132 -0.028
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1992 100.0% 43.84 100.0% 0.468 0.0133 0.341
Lightning's Swift Strike 387 303.31% 31.14 165.63% -0.273 -0.0704 0.432
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 143 40.14% 49.12 68.53% 0.334 -0.3745 -0.243
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 532 38.04% 39.53 80.83% -0.866 -1.1751 0.79
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 574 32.46% 45.01 81.36% 0.378 0.2026 0.748
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1633 100.0% 43.22 100.0% 0.246 0.0903 0.436
Many Minds Move as One 951 100.0% 38.42 100.0% 0.162 -0.0558 0.896
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1212 100.0% 42.35 100.0% -0.118 -0.1367 0.038
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 703 100.0% 35.13 100.0% -0.056 -0.192 0.479
River Surges in Sunlight 1052 149.24% 46.06 114.64% 0.376 0.3809 0.618
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 569 29.93% 47.12 82.78% 1.25 1.5045 0.564
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 183 33.52% 47.76 69.4% -0.08 -0.2121 0.051
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2955 100.0% 53.84 100.0% 0.356 0.1441 0.442
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 138 367.36% 27.95 223.19% -0.064 0.3844 -0.635
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 29 42.86% 34.86 75.86% 0.394 0.3744 0.441
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 20 50.0% 26.15 60.0% -0.316 -0.3006 -0.56
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 364 40.72% 36.29 76.37% 0.17 0.1123 -0.135
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 252 42.0% 32.23 72.62% -0.338 -0.2704 -0.895
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 826 103.75% 42.07 101.45% 0.482 0.3539 0.203
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 32 3.13% 26.38 62.5% 0.603 0.2556 -1.738
Shifting Memory of Ages 1182 100.0% 46.47 100.0% -0.493 -0.124 -0.37
Shroud of Silent Mist 511 100.0% 35.57 100.0% -0.528 -0.2131 -0.535
Starlight Seeks its Form 1291 100.0% 44.24 100.0% 0.445 0.1783 0.018
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1434 100.0% 37.44 100.0% 0.213 -0.2748 -0.242
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 731 100.0% 38.45 100.0% -0.442 -0.4026 0.517
Thunderspeaker 1332 101.35% 41.61 101.28% 0.539 0.5115 -0.055
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 27 33.33% 17.96 37.04% -0.235 -0.2813 -0.76
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 867 100.0% 35.47 100.0% -0.101 -0.0409 -0.124
Vital Strength of the Earth 445 163.6% 33.61 145.62% -0.96 -0.3983 -0.693
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 188 39.89% 47.93 53.19% -1.032 -0.7755 -0.715
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 307 44.63% 33.85 62.54% -0.788 0.0963 -0.612
Volcano Looming High 919 100.0% 37.79 100.0% -0.481 -0.4569 -0.06

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.77%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.32%
Pour Time Sideways 34.16%
The Past Returns Again 71.73%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7671 21.09 20.19%
II 16341 31.04 69.07%
III 13007 34.73 86.26%
IV 4709 38.01 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1520
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10970
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10358
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4636
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1260
Lose: Invader deck ran out 886
Lose: Adversary condition 3796
Win: Sacrifice victory 366
Lose: Scenario condition 216
Win: Scenario condition 902
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5923
Lose: Spirit destroyed 895

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.645 Win Model: -0.069

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.422 Win Model: 0.303
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 24106 47.22% 36.74 63.88%
2 9223 41.97% 36.45 73.77%
3 4064 39.77% 40.34 75.37%
4 3283 28.96% 47.07 82.06%
5 211 19.62% 34.57 74.88%
6 841 20.64% 47.92 75.51%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)