Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 21.43% 17.79 50.0% -0.444 -0.7279 -0.944
Blitz 0 194 37.82% 28.91 61.34% -0.647 -0.4862 -0.771
Dahan Insurrection 4 1126 21.58% 78.71 75.84% 1.338 0.9581 1.198
Despicable Theft 2 83 45.78% 32.89 60.24% -0.867 -0.0997 -0.007
Elemental Invocation 1 140 47.86% 28.07 53.57% -0.872 -0.1474 -0.555
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1622 12.66% 56.43 81.75% 0.132 -0.5 0.345
Powers Long Forgotten 1 189 50.26% 35.06 62.96% -0.243 0.3644 -0.096
Rituals of Terror 3 110 53.21% 50.25 64.55% -0.719 -0.5587 0.642
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 68.33% 32.48 43.33% -0.406 0.6568 -1.16
Second Wave 0 1145 33.33% 28.69 76.86% 0.675 0.753 -1.089
The Great River 3 65 49.23% 28.17 38.46% -1.555 -0.3314 -0.835
Varied Terrains 2 38 34.21% 25.42 44.74% -0.541 0.0829 -1.769
Ward the Shores 2 133 41.35% 36.6 66.92% 0.316 1.3581 -1.264

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 23682 46.45% 36.35 63.62% 0.125 0.2304 0.115
1 Thematic 901 50.67% 33.93 57.71% -0.409 0.1193 0.918
2 Archipelago 50 56.0% 43.04 42.0% -0.648 -0.3536 -1.269
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6495 43.42% 37.04 73.24% 0.311 0.4177 -0.093
2 Coastline 807 37.38% 34.75 75.84% -0.137 -0.2241 -0.067
2 Fragment 166 56.36% 36.3 65.06% 0.245 0.0479 0.407
2 Heart 114 44.74% 40.44 53.51% 0.475 0.1891 -1.44
2 Opposite Shores 1263 34.42% 32.15 75.06% 0.161 0.2143 -0.504
2 Thematic 393 37.91% 34.18 59.8% -0.07 0.3792 -0.894
2 Top to Top 204 41.38% 39.23 72.55% 0.515 0.4226 -0.387
3 Archipelago 23 43.48% 39.04 69.57% -0.457 -2.0651 -0.234
3 Coastline 35 29.41% 35.11 77.14% -0.718 -1.2299 0.201
3 Other 220 35.0% 32.57 80.0% 0.273 0.8452 0.113
3 Round (Default) 3718 39.97% 39.27 74.39% 0.142 0.0275 -0.789
3 Sunrise 21 57.14% 39.0 90.48% 0.0 0.2827 0.112
3 Thematic 165 36.36% 58.35 70.91% 0.041 0.0458 0.002
4 Archipelago 29 44.83% 43.0 65.52% 0.194 -0.5239 -0.732
4 Coastline 21 10.0% 36.86 80.95% 0.36 0.5794 0.51
4 Leaf 16 43.75% 47.38 81.25% 0.0 -0.3733 -0.692
4 Other 237 26.16% 44.54 84.39% 0.774 -0.2699 -0.506
4 Thematic 662 20.24% 63.0 85.35% 0.036 -0.2129 -0.774
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2406 31.95% 41.82 79.55% -0.15 -0.2769 -1.278
5 Archipelago 13 46.15% 56.0 69.23% 0.62 -0.5429 -0.717
5 Coastline 15 0.0% 34.47 86.67% -0.049 -0.8204 0.247
5 Other 244 22.59% 40.08 76.64% -0.523 -0.8275 -1.534
5 Thematic 69 46.38% 54.74 56.52% -0.294 -0.2369 -0.812
6 Archipelago 43 9.3% 57.05 81.4% -0.925 -0.6323 -2.317
6 Coastline 7 0.0% 38.71 71.43% -0.083 -0.7788 -1.183
6 Other 114 21.24% 41.88 83.33% -0.579 -0.9954 -2.303
6 Star 48 33.33% 40.71 68.75% -0.47 -0.4474 -1.851
6 Thematic 186 28.65% 40.94 63.44% -1.308 -1.0122 -1.913
6 Two Centers (Default) 553 17.6% 49.15 72.69% -1.361 -1.2677 -2.538
7 Archipelago 14 21.43% 64.36 85.71% -0.364 -0.4484 -0.676
7 Other 11 18.18% 14.64 36.36% -0.806 -1.366 -1.566

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1272 34.67 46.93% 0.334 0.5639 -0.823
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1156 37.4 49.74% 0.409 0.3348 -0.675
All Things Weaken 1486 32.2 42.73% 0.0 0.3679 -0.901
Attenuated Essence 41 28.12 34.15% -0.184 -0.0935 -1.103
Back Against the Wall 1238 36.47 50.24% 0.173 0.2244 -0.655
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 27.06 35.42% -0.16 0.0573 -1.186
Burn Brightest Before the End 43 33.65 46.51% 0.179 0.3473 -0.595
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1215 32.3 46.01% 0.164 0.5682 -0.82
Downward Spiral 1366 32.29 46.85% -0.174 0.0669 -0.858
Erosion of Will 1277 34.07 44.09% -0.1 0.2043 -0.997
Intensifying Exploitation 27 25.48 29.63% -0.164 0.1144 -0.913
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 518 40.9 74.13% 0.21 -0.2791 -0.011
Memory Fades to Dust 1396 33.48 49.14% -0.501 -0.1612 -0.743
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1352 31.27 46.01% -0.282 -0.0591 -1.13
Promising Farmlands 1217 32.45 41.66% -0.909 -0.4497 -1.082
Shattered Fragments of Power 31 31.23 41.94% -0.224 -0.1903 -0.327
Slow Dissolution of Will 35 21.83 31.43% -0.435 -0.0396 -0.878
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 374 42.09 80.75% 0.642 -0.0482 0.314
The Border of Life and Death 14 26.64 57.14% 0.493 0.1601 0.005
Thriving Communities 1336 33.99 47.01% 0.123 0.4667 -0.727
Thriving Crops 22 39.95 72.73% 1.245 1.0579 -0.148
Unnatural Proliferation 1418 34.23 43.94% -0.219 -0.0418 -0.912
Untended Land Crumbles 1367 30.2 41.55% -0.392 -0.1318 -1.112

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9763 39.27% 37.07 70.92% 0.33 1.1026 0.502
B 9520 39.32% 37.96 71.18% 0.154 0.909 0.786
C 11124 38.91% 40.25 72.03% 0.394 0.9988 1.041
D 8436 38.98% 37.36 71.16% 0.127 0.8552 0.666
E 9890 39.42% 38.91 71.66% 0.342 0.9383 0.814
F 7886 40.64% 37.84 69.74% -0.02 0.6393 0.74
G 6993 40.79% 37.59 70.93% 0.427 1.1084 0.74
H 7103 40.29% 38.21 71.48% 0.416 1.0106 0.949
East 1767 32.11% 49.64 70.4% -0.485 0.0974 -1.036
Northeast 1090 30.58% 52.64 72.66% -0.41 0.2753 -0.834
Northwest 877 33.83% 49.67 68.19% 0.196 1.0257 -0.705
Southeast 752 30.23% 47.03 67.95% -1.352 -0.6031 -1.07
Southwest 651 29.54% 44.26 70.05% -0.231 0.7635 -1.042
West 1596 32.31% 49.31 69.8% 0.278 1.229 0.075

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 304 0.0% 21.36 63.49% -1.289 -0.5032 -0.316
Not Using Events or Tokens 366 28.35% 30.88 79.78% 0.777 1.1346 -0.35
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1459 12.73% 56.68 83.89% 0.355 -0.2823 -0.649
Start of Game Growth 1822 15.53% 53.11 82.6% 0.067 -0.2295 -0.189
Unlimited Undo 4988 34.15% 46.78 78.93% -0.137 -0.1556 1.128
Using Tokens but Not Events 4056 25.49% 32.69 77.49% -0.123 -0.1688 -0.193

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2911 100.0% 47.99 100.0% 0.509 0.3552 0.593
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 661 100.0% 34.46 100.0% -0.175 -0.0393 0.128
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 647 100.0% 31.83 100.0% -0.505 -0.6355 -0.103
Downpour Drenches the World 383 100.0% 45.64 100.0% 0.311 0.5 0.288
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 193 100.0% 28.66 100.0% 0.502 -0.2933 0.214
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1696 100.0% 39.25 100.0% 0.533 -0.0609 0.327
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 694 100.0% 35.07 100.0% 0.246 -0.2517 0.126
Finder of Paths Unseen 373 100.0% 45.08 100.0% -0.182 0.4893 0.752
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 480 100.0% 35.39 100.0% 0.076 -0.0092 -0.49
Heart of the Wildfire 851 100.0% 36.19 100.0% -0.263 -0.0216 -0.078
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2098 100.0% 43.47 100.0% 0.434 -0.008 0.271
Lightning's Swift Strike 396 306.2% 30.8 171.21% -0.015 0.1902 0.374
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 162 42.24% 47.73 66.05% 0.27 -0.2252 -0.203
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 541 37.41% 39.01 79.85% -0.754 -0.9126 0.785
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 594 32.09% 44.56 80.13% -0.076 -0.1987 0.777
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1679 100.0% 42.85 100.0% 0.247 0.1094 0.397
Many Minds Move as One 979 100.0% 38.43 100.0% 0.23 0.0299 0.898
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1258 100.0% 41.93 100.0% -0.142 -0.1684 0.042
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 723 100.0% 34.6 100.0% -0.52 -0.6833 0.427
River Surges in Sunlight 1091 149.22% 45.82 115.22% 0.879 0.9487 0.565
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 574 29.67% 46.77 82.23% 0.671 0.9556 0.505
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 207 34.47% 46.38 69.08% 0.281 0.1502 0.106
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3077 100.0% 53.05 100.0% 0.451 0.1945 0.416
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 143 367.11% 27.39 225.87% 0.518 1.0192 -0.6
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 30 41.38% 33.7 73.33% -0.003 -0.0745 0.501
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 26 46.15% 29.81 61.54% 0.058 -0.0018 -0.791
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 367 40.38% 36.2 76.02% 0.417 0.3703 -0.177
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 257 41.18% 31.6 71.21% -1.296 -1.0986 -1.072
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 851 104.94% 41.65 101.76% 0.226 0.0473 0.177
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 45 6.67% 32.24 66.67% 0.97 0.549 -0.979
Shifting Memory of Ages 1251 100.0% 45.58 100.0% -0.243 0.1201 -0.333
Shroud of Silent Mist 523 100.0% 35.34 100.0% -0.291 -0.0399 -0.572
Starlight Seeks its Form 1421 100.0% 43.09 100.0% 0.119 -0.1385 -0.075
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1493 100.0% 37.26 100.0% 0.364 -0.1216 -0.26
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 747 100.0% 38.3 100.0% -0.363 -0.2999 0.54
Thunderspeaker 1354 101.48% 41.26 101.33% 0.288 0.271 -0.058
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 34 41.18% 21.18 47.06% -0.077 -0.1612 -0.877
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 893 100.0% 35.47 100.0% 0.03 0.1108 -0.016
Vital Strength of the Earth 454 164.91% 33.21 147.36% -0.988 -0.4544 -0.722
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 203 38.42% 45.94 52.22% -1.002 -0.7506 -0.71
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 310 44.48% 33.52 61.94% -1.436 -0.6049 -0.63
Volcano Looming High 943 100.0% 37.84 100.0% 0.044 0.0091 -0.012

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.83%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.33%
Pour Time Sideways 34.68%
The Past Returns Again 71.84%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8257 20.49 19.07%
II 16716 31.02 69.09%
III 13231 34.76 86.29%
IV 4788 38.06 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1546
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11164
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10579
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4712
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1793
Lose: Invader deck ran out 896
Lose: Adversary condition 3846
Win: Sacrifice victory 373
Lose: Scenario condition 217
Win: Scenario condition 941
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6014
Lose: Spirit destroyed 911

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.766 Win Model: -0.057

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.427 Win Model: 0.312
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 24787 46.63% 36.3 63.15%
2 9480 41.72% 36.15 73.18%
3 4186 39.62% 39.93 74.7%
4 3348 28.99% 46.66 81.48%
5 238 19.66% 33.66 73.11%
6 953 20.13% 46.89 72.93%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)