Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 27.33 100.0% 0.261 0.0591 0.0
Blitz 0 139 43.88% 32.58 70.5% 0.097 0.354 -0.381
Dahan Insurrection 4 764 22.91% 76.67 78.27% 0.402 0.8148 0.857
Despicable Theft 2 54 51.85% 39.48 75.93% 0.014 0.4603 0.022
Elemental Invocation 1 104 49.04% 31.32 64.42% -0.651 -0.1656 -0.328
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1450 12.58% 58.05 83.45% -0.57 -0.2641 -0.143
Powers Long Forgotten 1 162 52.47% 36.8 66.05% 0.539 0.7207 0.52
Rituals of Terror 3 92 53.26% 51.75 68.48% -0.586 -0.4652 0.352
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 44 77.27% 35.84 50.0% 0.0 0.4151 -0.214
Second Wave 0 880 34.48% 28.46 76.93% -0.72 -0.1542 -1.431
The Great River 3 51 52.94% 31.75 43.14% -0.939 0.4588 -0.356
Varied Terrains 2 6 50.0% 44.5 66.67% 0.108 0.634 -0.211
Ward the Shores 2 114 39.47% 37.89 69.3% -0.768 0.3936 -1.365

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19701 48.26% 37.6 66.39% -0.208 0.8079 0.164
1 Thematic 768 52.04% 35.52 61.98% -0.068 1.1045 0.97
2 Archipelago 31 67.74% 52.52 48.39% 0.238 1.2211 -1.321
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 5419 44.2% 38.11 75.46% -0.11 0.6416 -0.06
2 Coastline 663 38.3% 36.18 79.49% 0.358 0.9604 -0.214
2 Fragment 139 56.52% 38.74 71.22% -0.005 0.4422 0.593
2 Heart 95 37.89% 42.09 51.58% -0.109 0.4293 -1.749
2 Opposite Shores 1044 35.77% 33.06 77.97% -0.091 0.9008 -0.729
2 Thematic 297 41.41% 36.69 67.34% -0.25 0.448 -1.026
2 Top to Top 164 41.1% 40.18 73.17% 0.043 0.5535 -0.487
3 Archipelago 11 45.45% 41.09 72.73% -0.822 -0.6486 0.459
3 Coastline 25 28.0% 41.8 96.0% 0.887 0.104 0.653
3 Other 186 34.41% 34.77 85.48% 0.74 0.7044 -0.075
3 Round (Default) 3053 40.37% 39.94 75.83% -0.444 0.1508 -0.822
3 Sunrise 19 52.63% 38.26 89.47% 0.074 0.1111 0.192
3 Thematic 132 34.85% 61.59 75.0% -0.244 -0.282 -0.125
4 Archipelago 17 52.94% 43.06 70.59% 0.13 -0.5807 -0.287
4 Coastline 13 7.69% 41.92 76.92% -0.47 -0.3532 0.348
4 Leaf 14 42.86% 45.43 85.71% 0.052 0.6148 -0.253
4 Other 213 23.94% 46.28 84.98% 0.011 -0.2429 -0.581
4 Thematic 607 18.95% 65.06 89.95% 0.197 0.7265 -0.366
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2007 32.08% 42.79 82.01% -0.182 -0.2087 -1.309
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 59.75 75.0% -0.27 -0.8487 0.119
5 Coastline 7 0.0% 34.14 100.0% 0.335 -0.2297 0.053
5 Other 141 23.57% 42.77 88.65% -0.814 -0.6461 -0.627
5 Thematic 55 41.82% 55.35 61.82% -0.93 -1.2066 -0.861
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 35.83 100.0% 0.063 -0.1922 0.019
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0% 0.03 -0.5586 0.0
6 Other 50 20.41% 42.08 84.0% -1.23 -0.421 -1.517
6 Star 27 48.15% 42.22 77.78% -0.484 0.2996 -1.683
6 Thematic 82 30.49% 45.79 84.15% -0.611 -0.8895 -1.123
6 Two Centers (Default) 229 23.14% 62.48 89.08% -0.873 -0.9671 -1.636
7 Archipelago 7 28.57% 68.29 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0
7 Other 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.361 -0.7912 -1.373

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1098 34.4 46.36% -1.863 0.0402 -1.124
Aid From Lesser Spirits 998 37.05 49.8% -0.872 0.8581 -0.958
All Things Weaken 1312 32.16 42.45% -1.424 0.5618 -1.204
Back Against the Wall 1095 36.53 50.5% -1.641 0.1753 -0.919
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1044 32.13 46.55% -1.928 0.1226 -1.108
Downward Spiral 1168 32.79 48.37% -1.54 0.4529 -1.066
Erosion of Will 1104 33.87 44.66% -1.626 0.4573 -1.274
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 437 42.23 76.89% 0.342 0.7829 -0.125
Memory Fades to Dust 1243 33.7 49.4% -1.759 0.3251 -1.009
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1152 31.86 47.48% -1.076 0.8618 -1.353
Promising Farmlands 1045 32.75 42.58% -1.55 0.496 -1.298
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 316 42.27 82.59% -0.493 -0.0679 0.179
Thriving Communities 1135 34.35 48.19% -1.325 0.6587 -0.908
Unnatural Proliferation 1220 34.69 44.84% -1.45 0.5142 -1.133
Untended Land Crumbles 1184 30.18 41.98% -1.639 0.3542 -1.357

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7742 41.27% 38.33 73.95% 0.188 0.9858 0.538
B 7709 41.1% 39.3 73.98% 0.137 0.8805 0.855
C 8849 41.12% 40.68 74.52% 0.358 0.926 0.936
D 6729 40.63% 38.5 74.39% 0.162 0.9581 0.809
E 7953 41.33% 40.11 74.48% 0.62 1.2676 0.895
F 6323 43.0% 39.09 72.64% 0.083 0.8076 0.778
G 5574 42.29% 38.76 73.84% -0.033 0.6985 0.831
H 5663 42.37% 39.55 74.4% -0.046 0.6666 1.002
East 1417 31.97% 53.24 77.35% -0.49 0.2785 -0.819
Northeast 862 29.7% 56.19 80.28% -0.371 0.4894 -0.654
Northwest 655 32.26% 54.09 77.56% -1.312 -0.2357 -0.826
Southeast 534 29.4% 52.62 79.03% -0.861 -0.1551 -0.542
Southwest 477 29.98% 49.41 80.92% 0.832 1.9572 -0.709
West 1267 31.36% 53.33 77.82% 0.296 1.2502 0.128

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 155 0.0% 22.25 69.68% -0.647 1.4824 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 287 32.06% 31.39 82.23% 0.427 0.6018 -0.369
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1191 12.99% 60.26 90.01% 1.195 1.0526 0.534
Start of Game Growth 1461 15.91% 57.23 88.84% 0.324 -0.436 0.558
Unlimited Undo 4077 35.54% 49.23 83.17% 1.09 0.4856 1.204
Using Tokens but Not Events 3232 25.98% 34.46 81.93% 0.291 0.1348 0.191

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2246 100.0% 49.19 100.0% 0.516 0.4012 0.396
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 548 100.0% 36.59 100.0% -0.251 -0.1555 0.004
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 541 100.0% 32.58 100.0% -0.194 -0.3551 -0.524
Downpour Drenches the World 85 100.0% 53.71 100.0% 0.131 0.3833 -0.181
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1475 100.0% 39.57 100.0% -0.087 -0.525 0.16
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 571 100.0% 36.83 100.0% -0.061 -0.5492 0.086
Finder of Paths Unseen 75 100.0% 59.77 100.0% 0.782 1.1455 0.97
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 299 100.0% 38.12 100.0% -0.15 -0.1815 -0.31
Heart of the Wildfire 719 100.0% 38.09 100.0% 0.271 0.4454 0.201
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1684 100.0% 44.67 100.0% -0.503 -0.9589 0.323
Lightning's Swift Strike 328 294.28% 32.76 151.52% 0.852 1.1262 0.508
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 18 33.33% 49.61 94.44% 0.596 -0.1803 0.539
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 496 38.71% 40.7 83.27% 0.177 -0.4659 0.569
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 504 34.2% 45.25 83.13% 0.855 0.5887 0.643
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1388 100.0% 44.4 100.0% -0.105 -0.3713 0.568
Many Minds Move as One 812 100.0% 38.97 100.0% -0.253 -0.8554 0.598
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1009 100.0% 43.18 100.0% 0.66 0.4748 -0.021
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 595 100.0% 36.07 100.0% 0.345 0.3653 0.479
River Surges in Sunlight 957 141.86% 46.88 110.24% -0.695 -0.7292 0.599
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 537 30.6% 48.16 82.87% -0.264 0.167 0.133
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 42 30.95% 49.98 85.71% 0.484 0.1835 0.46
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2353 100.0% 55.72 100.0% 0.288 0.2348 0.453
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 120 379.51% 28.39 216.67% -0.032 0.3782 -0.795
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 13 38.46% 24.69 76.92% -0.237 -0.2303 -0.495
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 7 57.14% 35.43 85.71% 0.207 -0.1395 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 337 41.07% 36.94 76.85% -0.269 -0.25 -0.286
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 233 43.1% 33.33 75.11% 0.202 0.385 -0.923
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 719 100.0% 43.0 100.0% 0.047 -0.2399 -0.01
Shifting Memory of Ages 776 100.0% 51.02 100.0% -0.298 -0.2234 -0.563
Shroud of Silent Mist 419 100.0% 37.42 100.0% 0.517 0.7534 -0.613
Starlight Seeks its Form 752 100.0% 46.71 100.0% 0.469 0.3292 -0.201
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1199 100.0% 38.19 100.0% -0.799 -0.9812 -0.373
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 603 100.0% 40.78 100.0% -0.842 -0.6577 0.589
Thunderspeaker 1071 100.0% 41.61 100.0% -0.341 -0.2766 -0.269
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 707 100.0% 36.01 100.0% 0.287 0.1968 0.028
Vital Strength of the Earth 381 149.34% 35.01 132.02% -0.853 -0.044 -0.888
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 60 35.0% 57.88 65.0% -0.332 0.0547 -0.348
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 276 46.01% 34.45 63.41% 0.027 1.2016 -0.957
Volcano Looming High 760 100.0% 38.76 100.0% -0.807 -0.8118 0.007

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Absolute Stasis 94.79%
Blur the Arc of Years 94.32%
Pour Time Sideways 32.69%
The Past Returns Again 71.49%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5628 22.56 24.0%
II 14183 30.98 69.23%
III 11318 34.53 86.22%
IV 4117 37.77 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1326
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9544
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9117
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4049
Lose: Invader deck ran out 790
Lose: Adversary condition 3248
Win: Sacrifice victory 322
Lose: Scenario condition 192
Win: Scenario condition 675
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5187
Lose: Spirit destroyed 796

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.171 Win Model: -0.126

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.311 Win Model: 0.387
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 20584 48.42% 37.59 66.03%
2 7871 42.67% 37.24 75.67%
3 3425 39.75% 40.8 76.79%
4 2864 28.27% 48.21 84.43%
5 108 21.3% 32.76 83.33%
6 394 25.7% 54.91 88.07%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)