Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 45.45% 27.27 81.82% -0.213 -0.4153 0.185
Blitz 0 10 40.0% 25.5 80.0% -0.315 -0.0573 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 4 0.0% 60.75 100.0% 0.087 0.5005 0.471
Despicable Theft 2 4 25.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.298 0.7441 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 8 37.5% 24.63 75.0% -0.71 -0.2245 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 95 15.79% 49.79 91.58% 0.328 0.6339 0.202
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 33.33% 39.33 100.0% 0.294 0.4757 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.33 33.33% -0.381 -0.2599 0.036
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 25.0 50.0% -0.534 -0.1189 0.0
Second Wave 0 26 61.54% 31.73 73.08% -0.666 -0.1007 0.299
Varied Terrains 2 20 65.0% 28.8 60.0% -0.559 -0.033 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 4 50.0% 27.25 50.0% -0.921 0.2405 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 827 48.79% 31.31 79.81% -0.215 0.801 -0.789
1 Thematic 7 71.43% 32.43 71.43% -0.283 0.8899 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 169 49.7% 34.11 80.47% -0.072 0.6796 -0.008
2 Coastline 40 50.0% 35.23 72.5% -0.719 -0.1163 -0.534
2 Fragment 4 100.0% 47.5 100.0% 0.209 0.6561 0.0
2 Heart 8 75.0% 31.25 37.5% -0.473 0.0656 0.587
2 Opposite Shores 53 41.51% 31.66 92.45% 0.615 1.6071 0.284
2 Thematic 5 25.0% 33.0 60.0% -0.525 0.1739 0.0
2 Top to Top 9 55.56% 40.22 88.89% 0.69 1.2005 0.22
3 Archipelago 1 100.0% 72.0 100.0% 0.189 0.3626 0.202
3 Other 6 0.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.341 0.3058 0.0
3 Round (Default) 139 41.01% 38.98 82.01% -0.558 0.0372 -0.443
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.007 0.0438 0.0
3 Thematic 2 100.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.389 0.3515 0.0
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.01 -0.7011 0.0
4 Other 5 0.0% 27.2 100.0% 0.108 -0.1463 0.0
4 Thematic 4 50.0% 70.25 75.0% 0.335 0.8641 0.411
4 Trapezoid (Default) 55 38.18% 39.07 90.91% 0.193 0.1662 0.637
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.011 -0.5683 0.0
5 Other 5 20.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.334 0.5018 0.099
5 Thematic 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2767 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.019 -0.2362 0.0
6 Other 6 66.67% 30.67 83.33% -0.13 0.6794 -0.463
6 Star 6 66.67% 25.67 50.0% -0.609 0.175 -0.734
6 Thematic 9 0.0% 58.33 88.89% -0.151 -0.4299 0.144
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 40.0% 39.33 86.67% 0.115 0.0213 0.145
7 Other 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0% 0.011 -1.1408 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 51 33.39 62.75% -1.443 0.4601 0.194
Aid From Lesser Spirits 41 39.41 78.05% -0.455 1.2753 0.494
All Things Weaken 41 30.02 56.1% -1.647 0.3383 -0.438
Back Against the Wall 49 37.14 71.43% -1.352 0.4644 0.372
Disintegrating Ecosystem 52 32.27 61.54% -1.298 0.752 -0.622
Downward Spiral 52 31.21 76.92% -0.928 1.0653 0.195
Erosion of Will 38 33.29 57.89% -1.629 0.4543 -0.506
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18 42.17 100.0% 0.784 1.2246 0.591
Memory Fades to Dust 67 31.82 56.72% -1.675 0.4095 -0.695
Power Corrodes the Spirit 44 34.18 61.36% -1.344 0.5946 -0.531
Promising Farmlands 40 33.15 70.0% -0.937 1.1087 0.498
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 39.9 90.0% 0.04 0.4646 0.433
Thriving Communities 49 29.47 55.1% -1.893 0.0902 -0.145
Unnatural Proliferation 42 34.57 66.67% -1.349 0.616 -0.742
Untended Land Crumbles 53 26.32 54.72% -2.001 -0.0081 -0.706

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 305 44.7% 34.3 80.66% -0.152 0.6454 0.047
B 329 48.63% 33.17 80.24% 0.122 0.8658 -0.487
C 388 43.67% 35.64 85.31% 0.307 0.8751 0.36
D 297 40.34% 33.47 80.13% -0.375 0.4209 -0.206
E 290 45.17% 34.64 84.48% 0.261 0.9083 0.305
F 243 45.27% 34.37 83.13% -0.121 0.6027 -0.437
G 204 47.55% 35.8 83.33% 0.305 1.037 0.382
H 236 46.38% 34.14 80.51% -0.076 0.6365 -0.509
East 22 33.33% 49.32 81.82% 0.894 1.6626 0.411
Northeast 17 37.5% 51.88 76.47% -0.478 0.3814 0.0
Northwest 16 26.67% 54.44 75.0% -0.583 0.4936 0.0
Southeast 14 7.14% 52.0 92.86% -0.092 0.6138 0.144
Southwest 13 7.69% 53.85 92.31% 0.0 1.1253 0.0
West 24 34.78% 50.42 79.17% 0.026 0.9796 0.0

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 21.33 83.33% -0.307 1.8224 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 16 21.43% 25.19 81.25% -0.467 -0.2925 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 5.26% 38.55 100.0% 0.758 0.6162 0.0
Start of Game Growth 37 11.11% 41.49 94.59% 0.427 -0.3333 0.144
Unlimited Undo 108 52.83% 40.47 88.89% 0.555 -0.0485 0.084
Using Tokens but Not Events 91 28.74% 30.68 91.21% 0.167 0.0102 -0.753

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 59 100.0% 32.37 100.0% 0.472 0.3572 0.868
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 23 100.0% 31.22 100.0% 0.064 0.1598 0.548
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 12 100.0% 33.92 100.0% -0.543 -0.7039 0.047
Downpour Drenches the World 69 100.0% 34.13 100.0% -0.231 0.0219 -0.035
Eyes Watch From the Trees 26 100.0% 34.69 100.0% 0.203 -0.2342 -0.419
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 39 100.0% 37.0 100.0% -0.168 -0.6559 -0.618
Finder of Paths Unseen 46 100.0% 35.33 100.0% -0.179 0.1845 0.359
Fractured Days Split the Sky 7 100.0% 35.43 100.0% -0.305 -0.2486 0.0
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 13 100.0% 35.08 100.0% 0.529 0.4971 0.44
Heart of the Wildfire 14 100.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.515 -0.3404 -0.588
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 41 100.0% 39.54 100.0% -0.429 -0.8855 -0.954
Lightning's Swift Strike 7 1071.43% 33.29 257.14% 0.085 0.3597 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 72 30.56% 36.49 94.44% 1.107 0.3308 -0.783
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 19 26.32% 46.74 94.74% 0.196 -0.4464 -0.179
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 13 69.23% 33.69 53.85% -0.568 -0.8341 -0.01
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 33 100.0% 42.24 100.0% -0.514 -0.7807 0.026
Many Minds Move as One 8 100.0% 36.25 100.0% -0.164 -0.767 -0.282
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 54 100.0% 43.26 100.0% 0.884 0.6993 0.741
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 13 100.0% 31.77 100.0% 0.253 0.2735 0.0
River Surges in Sunlight 8 670.0% 31.88 362.5% -0.755 -0.7897 0.047
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 11 33.33% 27.91 72.73% -1.009 -0.5775 0.0
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 98 47.96% 41.45 81.63% 0.425 0.1244 -0.297
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 8 100.0% 35.5 100.0% 0.235 0.1822 0.341
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 34 100.0% 49.32 100.0% 0.497 0.2101 0.163
Shifting Memory of Ages 24 100.0% 28.29 100.0% 0.129 0.2042 -0.122
Shroud of Silent Mist 11 100.0% 35.18 100.0% 0.375 0.6112 0.202
Starlight Seeks its Form 24 100.0% 41.04 100.0% 0.913 0.7738 0.721
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 39 100.0% 47.82 100.0% -0.542 -0.7243 -0.102
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 22 100.0% 44.95 100.0% 0.42 0.6045 0.51
Thunderspeaker 20 100.0% 33.4 100.0% 0.593 0.6576 0.054
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 14 100.0% 37.36 100.0% -0.594 -0.6847 -0.203
Vital Strength of the Earth 3 2066.67% 40.67 700.0% -0.341 0.4676 0.326
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 94 39.36% 35.26 80.85% -0.543 -0.156 -0.041
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 3 33.33% 24.67 100.0% 0.245 1.4197 0.0
Volcano Looming High 19 100.0% 33.95 100.0% -0.175 -0.1793 -0.58

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.58%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.07%
Favors Called Due 90.96%
Mantle of Dread 90.09%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 61 22.56 6.56%
II 366 30.98 60.66%
III 665 34.53 90.68%
IV 290 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 600
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 217
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 287
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 74
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 5
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 176
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.483 Win Model: -0.292

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.294 Win Model: 0.09
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 836 49.1% 31.33 79.78%
2 286 49.12% 34.07 80.42%
3 150 41.33% 39.65 83.33%
4 64 34.38% 38.11 90.63%
5 8 12.5% 33.13 100.0%
6 38 36.84% 40.29 81.58%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)