Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 31.03% 29.38 86.21% 0.146 0.0058 0.056
Blitz 0 49 27.08% 30.69 69.39% 0.016 0.1268 0.601
Dahan Insurrection 4 50 10.0% 27.6 38.0% -0.848 -1.0831 0.124
Despicable Theft 2 15 20.0% 27.6 73.33% -0.333 0.3098 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 39 43.59% 21.54 53.85% -0.655 0.1469 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 311 14.15% 48.66 86.17% 1.693 0.9191 1.17
Powers Long Forgotten 1 18 44.44% 25.5 61.11% 0.492 1.2643 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 12 41.67% 33.5 50.0% 0.0 0.0161 0.313
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 13 61.54% 30.23 61.54% -0.08 0.9769 0.453
Second Wave 0 136 43.94% 27.14 66.18% -0.283 -0.2021 0.475
The Great River 3 9 55.56% 21.67 33.33% -0.244 0.8849 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 43 60.47% 25.35 58.14% 0.366 1.0578 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 15 33.33% 19.8 40.0% -0.547 0.3165 -0.026

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2973 49.57% 27.03 63.47% 0.0 0.2009 -0.302
1 Thematic 93 50.54% 25.81 41.94% -0.466 0.254 -0.676
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 760 46.87% 27.7 65.13% 0.553 0.5606 0.468
2 Coastline 124 45.9% 35.03 75.81% 0.018 -0.1871 0.246
2 Fragment 18 66.67% 31.5 61.11% -0.164 -0.4418 -0.339
2 Heart 24 70.83% 32.96 50.0% -0.236 -0.456 0.914
2 Opposite Shores 191 32.46% 32.52 79.58% -0.298 -0.2411 0.244
2 Thematic 49 33.33% 24.88 59.18% 0.254 0.7058 -0.599
2 Top to Top 30 70.0% 34.6 73.33% -0.348 -0.4452 0.276
3 Archipelago 7 57.14% 42.29 71.43% 0.0 -0.7914 0.561
3 Coastline 3 33.33% 34.67 100.0% 0.306 -0.2611 0.378
3 Other 28 35.71% 25.29 75.0% 0.312 0.2827 -0.326
3 Round (Default) 556 40.18% 33.73 73.92% 0.348 0.1221 -0.077
3 Sunrise 6 16.67% 29.33 83.33% 0.604 -0.3809 0.0
3 Thematic 23 39.13% 29.3 56.52% -0.397 -0.2005 0.47
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.1858 0.0
4 Coastline 2 0.0% 13.5 50.0% -0.489 -1.0752 0.0
4 Leaf 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.336 -0.3626 0.0
4 Other 17 52.94% 29.41 88.24% 0.66 -0.6979 -0.157
4 Thematic 19 47.37% 39.05 47.37% 0.234 0.0352 -0.329
4 Trapezoid (Default) 253 33.47% 31.79 72.33% -0.09 -0.3335 -0.306
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.0 0.3165 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.0 0.1933 0.199
5 Other 44 22.73% 30.39 68.18% -0.249 -1.3061 0.954
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4784 0.0
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0% -0.338 -1.0742 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2405 0.0
6 Other 30 33.33% 29.93 80.0% 0.055 -0.6821 -0.05
6 Star 24 37.5% 28.83 58.33% -0.787 -0.8438 -0.671
6 Thematic 62 19.35% 24.45 41.94% 0.026 0.7803 -0.419
6 Two Centers (Default) 61 25.0% 28.84 62.3% -0.384 -0.9632 -0.189
7 Other 3 0.0% 16.33 33.33% 0.549 0.137 -0.297

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 157 32.22 55.41% -0.455 -0.2953 0.571
Aid From Lesser Spirits 123 32.11 57.72% 0.758 0.6722 0.71
All Things Weaken 160 27.16 51.88% -0.085 0.2566 -0.203
Attenuated Essence 41 24.24 46.34% -0.679 -0.6053 -0.443
Back Against the Wall 134 37.28 64.18% 0.622 0.6973 0.667
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 38 25.87 50.0% 1.079 1.2702 0.088
Burn Brightest Before the End 36 29.53 47.22% 0.283 0.4067 0.288
Disintegrating Ecosystem 168 29.99 51.79% -0.062 0.3104 0.165
Downward Spiral 190 27.32 63.16% 0.51 0.6466 -0.044
Erosion of Will 131 30.34 53.44% -0.275 0.0198 -0.145
Intensifying Exploitation 41 26.37 48.78% -0.157 0.0813 -0.139
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 70 37.63 85.71% 0.516 -0.0156 0.479
Memory Fades to Dust 207 28.52 61.84% 0.496 0.7769 -0.362
Power Corrodes the Spirit 164 31.88 56.1% -0.071 0.0817 -0.312
Promising Farmlands 155 28.34 50.97% -0.113 0.2336 -0.313
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 24.92 42.11% 0.278 0.4732 -0.14
Slow Dissolution of Will 36 22.42 44.44% 0.486 0.9375 -0.606
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 45 33.4 73.33% -0.215 -0.9559 0.195
The Border of Life and Death 7 24.86 57.14% -0.045 -0.4778 -0.187
Thriving Communities 143 27.52 48.25% 0.071 0.3695 0.093
Thriving Crops 15 26.4 60.0% 0.345 0.2426 -0.415
Unnatural Proliferation 167 33.11 56.89% 0.355 0.4999 -0.134
Untended Land Crumbles 163 25.21 50.31% 0.236 0.5355 -1.046

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1269 40.16% 29.72 67.77% 0.094 1.0884 0.151
B 1324 43.45% 29.03 66.77% 0.013 0.9307 -0.127
C 1495 41.34% 30.91 70.7% 0.27 1.013 0.248
D 1196 39.38% 29.63 69.23% -0.145 0.8062 0.507
E 1146 42.92% 30.57 69.98% 0.359 1.1398 0.689
F 976 43.39% 28.41 67.83% -0.301 0.5915 0.339
G 852 46.12% 29.4 65.85% -0.051 0.8043 -0.204
H 888 45.14% 29.45 67.12% 0.119 0.9668 -0.078
East 195 32.98% 27.43 49.23% 0.47 1.2391 -0.318
Northeast 129 30.95% 25.9 46.51% -0.774 0.0136 -0.245
Northwest 118 32.17% 28.75 48.31% 0.572 1.5557 -0.266
Southeast 106 21.7% 26.54 50.94% 0.064 0.9384 0.401
Southwest 95 26.32% 24.17 46.32% -0.341 0.8667 -0.442
West 177 35.84% 26.73 47.46% -0.34 0.5943 -0.684

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 93 0.0% 9.34 35.48% -1.832 -1.2026 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 138 34.62% 12.9 47.83% -0.543 -0.0371 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 122 12.73% 38.62 80.33% 1.332 0.6969 -0.523
Start of Game Growth 173 16.03% 34.91 74.57% 0.17 -0.2197 -0.013
Unlimited Undo 486 46.52% 31.15 65.64% 0.11 0.154 0.201
Using Tokens but Not Events 573 27.04% 26.71 72.08% -0.205 -0.2317 -0.817

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 217 100.0% 29.29 100.0% 1.16 1.037 0.373
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 174 107.47% 27.67 104.6% -0.259 -0.0186 -0.536
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence 18 27.78% 28.11 55.56% -0.015 -1.0157 0.26
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 101 100.0% 24.34 100.0% 0.449 0.2226 -0.41
Downpour Drenches the World 188 100.0% 30.48 100.0% -0.303 0.0224 0.074
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 68 100.0% 27.71 100.0% 0.146 -0.3531 0.054
Eyes Watch From the Trees 136 100.0% 29.79 100.0% 0.205 -0.2561 -0.23
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 152 100.0% 25.06 100.0% 0.225 -0.204 -1.688
Finder of Paths Unseen 110 100.0% 31.91 100.0% -0.596 0.2272 0.384
Fractured Days Split the Sky 63 100.0% 26.81 100.0% -0.066 0.5308 -0.159
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 90 100.0% 31.44 100.0% 0.319 0.3183 0.376
Heart of the Wildfire 82 100.0% 26.41 100.0% -0.794 -0.4092 -0.601
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 177 105.08% 33.05 105.65% 0.067 -0.4278 -0.076
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds — Spreading Hostility 10 10.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.428 -1.9745 -0.444
Lightning's Swift Strike 51 539.29% 22.61 286.27% 0.07 0.253 -0.279
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 189 35.48% 32.05 78.31% 0.516 -0.0207 -0.172
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 84 34.94% 33.92 79.76% 0.577 0.2857 0.419
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 114 36.28% 33.61 67.54% -0.262 -0.4097 0.598
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 163 100.0% 28.48 100.0% -0.038 -0.2893 -0.754
Many Minds Move as One 68 100.0% 31.22 100.0% 0.196 0.039 0.384
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 299 100.0% 38.79 100.0% 0.299 0.31 1.108
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 96 100.0% 23.31 100.0% -0.219 -0.365 -0.416
River Surges in Sunlight 47 498.31% 26.77 306.38% 0.693 0.7306 0.518
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 108 22.86% 31.54 66.67% 0.664 0.9238 -0.006
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 261 38.89% 37.31 76.63% 0.332 0.2818 0.448
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 74 100.0% 26.91 100.0% -0.037 -0.2113 -0.313
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 109 133.94% 39.64 112.84% 0.077 0.1565 0.814
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 48 22.92% 25.9 70.83% -0.285 -0.6071 -0.018
Shifting Memory of Ages 114 100.0% 26.4 100.0% 0.039 0.3044 -0.479
Shroud of Silent Mist 94 100.0% 25.37 100.0% -0.454 -0.0863 0.272
Starlight Seeks its Form 112 100.0% 30.54 100.0% -0.83 -1.0577 0.466
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 115 100.0% 37.03 100.0% 0.13 -0.2267 0.428
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 128 100.0% 30.71 100.0% -0.002 0.1307 0.689
Thunderspeaker 85 135.29% 33.42 125.88% -0.19 -0.161 0.277
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 45 33.33% 21.82 51.11% -1.246 -1.0064 -0.111
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 57 100.0% 32.35 100.0% 0.752 0.9423 0.189
Vital Strength of the Earth 31 522.86% 16.35 316.13% -0.524 0.0335 -0.249
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 202 34.5% 31.37 71.78% -0.186 0.2237 -0.349
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 32 43.33% 20.47 68.75% 0.489 1.2168 -0.333
Volcano Looming High 87 100.0% 31.56 100.0% -0.096 -0.0766 -0.083
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium 13 100.0% 21.69 100.0% 0.449 -0.1448 -0.267

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 80.18%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.72%
Favors Called Due 89.77%
Mantle of Dread 89.64%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 927 17.67 3.88%
II 1423 30.7 47.72%
III 2106 34.75 89.32%
IV 957 38.22 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 36
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1859
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 664
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 952
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 771
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11
Lose: Adversary condition 341
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 27
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 688
Lose: Spirit destroyed 24

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.285 Win Model: -0.134

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.083 Win Model: 0.035
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3078 49.54% 26.97 62.74%
2 1196 45.34% 29.54 68.48%
3 618 39.87% 33.46 73.14%
4 288 35.0% 31.54 71.88%
5 49 22.45% 29.92 69.39%
6 184 25.14% 27.72 58.7%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)