Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 25 28.0% 30.96 88.0% 0.774 0.5181 0.102
Blitz 0 33 34.38% 29.7 72.73% -0.003 0.1941 1.003
Dahan Insurrection 4 34 11.76% 31.53 44.12% -0.48 -0.9221 -0.414
Despicable Theft 2 10 30.0% 30.8 90.0% -0.202 0.6102 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 28 46.43% 24.25 64.29% 0.092 0.7951 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 244 16.39% 49.42 86.48% 1.04 0.395 1.015
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 28.57% 23.57 57.14% -0.368 0.2672 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 8 50.0% 41.38 62.5% -0.113 -0.0119 0.23
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 100.0% 33.0 66.67% -0.176 0.8329 0.387
Second Wave 0 91 41.57% 28.97 71.43% -0.488 -0.4219 0.418
The Great River 3 3 33.33% 5.33 0.0% -0.398 0.8197 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 36 61.11% 27.5 61.11% -0.214 0.4093 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 10 30.0% 23.4 50.0% -0.333 0.7509 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2157 50.7% 29.57 70.0% -0.318 -0.2641 -0.465
1 Thematic 53 60.38% 30.19 41.51% -0.248 0.2295 -0.636
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 499 46.44% 29.46 68.94% -0.423 -0.341 -0.223
2 Coastline 92 45.05% 38.63 80.43% 0.869 0.7149 0.249
2 Fragment 16 68.75% 33.44 62.5% -0.296 -0.5451 -0.376
2 Heart 20 70.0% 32.2 55.0% 0.287 -0.0006 1.173
2 Opposite Shores 135 33.33% 35.02 85.19% 1.053 1.076 0.234
2 Thematic 35 29.03% 26.03 57.14% -0.375 0.0287 -0.44
2 Top to Top 23 73.91% 34.91 86.96% 0.0 -0.1662 0.636
3 Archipelago 6 66.67% 49.33 83.33% 0.147 -1.402 0.323
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 34.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.5136 0.319
3 Other 25 32.0% 25.28 76.0% -0.999 -0.4587 -0.535
3 Round (Default) 399 40.95% 35.99 79.45% 0.238 0.1223 -0.279
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.0 0.2798 0.0
3 Thematic 11 63.64% 33.91 63.64% 0.643 0.7233 0.527
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6745 0.0
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.2312 0.0
4 Other 12 50.0% 32.33 83.33% 0.085 -0.9992 0.206
4 Thematic 17 47.06% 40.35 47.06% -0.507 -0.7696 -0.238
4 Trapezoid (Default) 180 32.95% 33.97 74.44% -0.186 -0.2684 0.034
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.9161 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.292 -0.3596 0.121
5 Other 24 20.83% 36.0 87.5% 1.194 0.9096 0.955
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0937 0.0
6 Archipelago 2 0.0% 43.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1512 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.8009 0.0
6 Other 21 38.1% 30.67 80.95% -0.221 -0.4543 -0.167
6 Star 14 57.14% 41.21 71.43% -0.22 -0.2331 -0.514
6 Thematic 39 15.38% 29.92 51.28% -0.821 -0.4 -0.431
6 Two Centers (Default) 45 29.55% 31.73 66.67% -0.156 -0.0524 -0.166
7 Other 2 0.0% 24.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.6126 -0.326

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 130 34.54 57.69% 0.445 0.6875 0.67
Aid From Lesser Spirits 94 32.03 58.51% -0.819 -0.8965 0.54
All Things Weaken 121 29.03 54.55% 0.169 0.5617 -0.056
Attenuated Essence 16 21.75 43.75% -0.208 -0.1007 0.031
Back Against the Wall 113 37.31 63.72% 0.347 0.4048 0.356
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 21.67 44.44% -0.127 0.0751 -0.134
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 31.15 46.15% -0.31 -0.0998 0.161
Disintegrating Ecosystem 130 30.78 53.08% -0.725 -0.3012 0.052
Downward Spiral 138 28.79 64.49% -0.051 0.1846 0.195
Erosion of Will 97 31.86 55.67% 0.301 0.6107 -0.061
Intensifying Exploitation 19 24.63 42.11% 0.122 0.4095 -0.617
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 59 37.8 88.14% 1.29 0.7963 0.234
Memory Fades to Dust 148 30.29 64.19% 0.497 0.8336 -0.448
Power Corrodes the Spirit 120 32.77 60.0% 0.716 0.9363 -0.477
Promising Farmlands 107 30.38 56.07% 0.05 0.503 -0.078
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 22.89 26.32% -1.131 -1.0797 -0.313
Slow Dissolution of Will 12 25.33 41.67% -0.389 0.0106 -0.571
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 37 36.05 81.08% -0.121 -0.8318 -0.019
The Border of Life and Death 4 20.75 50.0% -0.1 -0.4354 -0.214
Thriving Communities 117 29.32 49.57% -0.779 -0.4157 0.027
Thriving Crops 5 25.6 60.0% -0.321 -0.5184 -0.245
Unnatural Proliferation 137 33.79 58.39% -0.045 0.1703 -0.41
Untended Land Crumbles 121 25.25 47.93% -0.112 0.1699 -1.048

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 905 42.11% 32.17 71.71% -0.246 0.4936 -0.016
B 920 44.52% 32.12 74.46% 0.271 0.9965 0.049
C 1062 42.8% 33.55 74.95% 0.113 0.6954 0.206
D 835 40.22% 32.37 75.57% 0.54 1.2512 0.413
E 801 42.61% 32.89 76.03% 0.311 0.876 0.692
F 698 46.15% 31.09 73.5% -0.023 0.647 0.265
G 593 48.04% 31.27 69.98% -0.184 0.4675 -0.376
H 638 45.41% 31.46 72.1% 0.564 1.1341 -0.034
East 128 37.1% 30.93 53.13% 0.039 0.5782 -0.28
Northeast 83 32.5% 30.28 53.01% 0.032 0.6671 -0.201
Northwest 81 33.33% 31.93 49.38% -0.389 0.4199 -0.439
Southeast 63 20.63% 31.65 60.32% 0.035 0.7406 0.307
Southwest 57 22.81% 30.11 56.14% 0.023 1.0129 -0.076
West 114 35.45% 31.11 51.75% -1.048 -0.1444 -0.53

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 48 0.0% 13.1 50.0% -0.554 0.2227 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 72 30.0% 17.5 62.5% -0.839 -0.4595 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 94 12.5% 39.01 81.91% 0.818 0.2 -0.546
Start of Game Growth 128 15.83% 37.17 78.13% -0.388 -0.7361 -0.299
Unlimited Undo 379 50.42% 33.41 69.92% -0.432 -0.4385 0.344
Using Tokens but Not Events 405 26.65% 29.38 80.74% 0.162 0.152 -0.084

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 145 100.0% 29.41 100.0% 0.423 0.2751 0.01
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 109 100.0% 32.08 100.0% -0.023 0.1072 -0.278
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 62 100.0% 24.87 100.0% -0.424 -0.5691 -0.429
Downpour Drenches the World 148 100.0% 32.49 100.0% -0.124 0.0551 -0.056
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 50 100.0% 28.3 100.0% 0.469 -0.2956 -0.167
Eyes Watch From the Trees 94 100.0% 31.88 100.0% 0.638 0.0491 -0.207
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 99 100.0% 28.81 100.0% -1.039 -1.5355 -1.363
Finder of Paths Unseen 85 100.0% 35.46 100.0% -0.094 0.5701 0.51
Fractured Days Split the Sky 26 100.0% 29.81 100.0% 0.563 1.1494 -0.475
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 62 100.0% 34.47 100.0% -0.516 -0.6104 0.341
Heart of the Wildfire 60 100.0% 31.55 100.0% -0.213 0.0282 -0.764
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 136 100.0% 32.3 100.0% -0.488 -0.9299 -0.418
Lightning's Swift Strike 36 584.21% 22.42 261.11% 0.064 0.2473 -0.211
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 153 34.87% 33.96 82.35% 0.981 0.4938 -0.612
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 59 37.93% 37.08 81.36% 0.146 -0.0216 0.51
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 81 39.51% 38.05 75.31% -0.222 -0.3349 0.553
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 102 100.0% 32.99 100.0% 0.03 -0.1026 -0.147
Many Minds Move as One 34 100.0% 32.21 100.0% 0.479 0.2577 0.494
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 221 100.0% 41.15 100.0% 1.187 1.1447 1.248
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 54 100.0% 28.19 100.0% 0.112 -0.0659 -0.597
River Surges in Sunlight 30 551.28% 28.7 310.0% -0.218 -0.1475 0.338
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 70 25.37% 32.8 70.0% -0.516 -0.206 0.072
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 211 38.54% 39.67 80.09% 0.652 0.5389 0.185
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 40 100.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.102 -0.1358 -0.698
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 82 121.95% 43.96 107.32% 0.156 -0.0342 0.708
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 24 25.0% 27.17 75.0% 0.314 -0.0669 0.436
Shifting Memory of Ages 83 100.0% 27.4 100.0% -0.267 0.0863 -0.658
Shroud of Silent Mist 58 100.0% 28.91 100.0% -0.656 -0.406 0.336
Starlight Seeks its Form 76 100.0% 35.0 100.0% 0.529 0.2674 1.168
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 88 100.0% 41.51 100.0% 0.203 -0.2743 0.584
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 92 100.0% 34.57 100.0% 0.091 0.1538 0.398
Thunderspeaker 57 131.58% 36.47 121.05% 0.151 0.1169 0.259
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 26 30.77% 21.92 53.85% -0.602 -0.6417 -0.632
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 35 100.0% 34.4 100.0% -0.941 -0.8483 0.132
Vital Strength of the Earth 17 645.0% 15.88 388.24% -0.425 0.0995 -0.03
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 166 37.8% 33.23 73.49% 0.201 0.4613 -0.083
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 15 50.0% 21.13 66.67% -0.102 0.6738 -0.205
Volcano Looming High 70 100.0% 32.0 100.0% -0.788 -0.8312 -0.099

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 79.51%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.39%
Favors Called Due 89.87%
Mantle of Dread 89.69%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 450 20.4 6.22%
II 1048 31.01 51.72%
III 1627 34.76 89.49%
IV 714 38.07 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1437
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 531
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 709
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 277
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 258
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 520
Lose: Spirit destroyed 17

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.118 Win Model: -0.173

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.141 Win Model: -0.133
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2219 50.91% 29.58 69.27%
2 820 45.34% 31.61 72.8%
3 441 41.36% 35.77 78.23%
4 205 34.34% 33.98 74.15%
5 31 22.58% 32.71 80.65%
6 123 28.69% 32.72 66.67%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)