Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 31.25% 29.69 87.5% 0.445 0.9407 0.404
Blitz 0 19 38.89% 26.32 84.21% 0.114 0.5568 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 11 9.09% 53.0 81.82% -0.749 -0.652 0.089
Despicable Theft 2 7 28.57% 33.43 100.0% 0.0 0.4987 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 16 43.75% 26.81 68.75% 0.301 0.8467 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 156 16.67% 49.52 90.38% 0.448 0.6797 0.791
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 33.33% 39.33 100.0% 0.0 0.4076 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 47.29 71.43% 0.135 -0.1008 0.018
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 100.0% 31.33 66.67% 0.209 0.4347 0.0
Second Wave 0 55 50.0% 28.75 74.55% -0.322 0.3709 0.249
The Great River 3 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0% -0.459 1.1223 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 30 66.67% 29.27 63.33% -0.011 0.7756 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 29.17 66.67% 0.201 1.0823 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1390 50.98% 31.57 76.33% 0.435 1.0984 -0.336
1 Thematic 21 76.19% 32.05 38.1% -0.844 0.2126 -0.916
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 297 52.05% 33.47 76.09% 0.233 0.7516 0.058
2 Coastline 70 44.29% 40.6 81.43% 1.225 1.4258 -0.255
2 Fragment 10 80.0% 34.4 70.0% -0.889 -0.5905 0.0
2 Heart 15 73.33% 32.93 46.67% -0.34 0.1208 0.651
2 Opposite Shores 83 45.78% 31.86 85.54% -0.399 0.1399 0.338
2 Thematic 18 35.71% 31.67 72.22% 0.022 0.8038 0.0
2 Top to Top 21 71.43% 36.43 90.48% 1.144 1.2718 0.571
3 Archipelago 4 75.0% 42.25 75.0% -0.424 -0.6428 0.12
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 34.5 100.0% 0.159 -0.3485 0.273
3 Other 17 41.18% 29.59 88.24% 0.143 -0.5205 -0.659
3 Round (Default) 256 40.63% 38.75 83.2% -0.152 0.1521 -0.344
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 4 100.0% 37.5 75.0% -0.427 -0.2188 0.0
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0374 0.0
4 Other 8 37.5% 30.0 87.5% 0.093 -0.6209 0.162
4 Thematic 7 71.43% 65.43 85.71% 0.299 0.4025 0.501
4 Trapezoid (Default) 116 35.71% 39.05 82.76% -1.232 -1.1547 0.08
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.5876 0.0
5 Other 15 26.67% 43.6 100.0% 0.232 -0.2847 0.438
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.026 -0.2617 0.0
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Other 11 54.55% 34.09 81.82% 0.036 0.0807 -0.279
6 Star 12 66.67% 46.25 75.0% 0.061 0.8311 -0.812
6 Thematic 16 18.75% 49.31 93.75% 0.145 0.3862 0.223
6 Two Centers (Default) 22 38.1% 43.55 90.91% 0.349 0.5404 0.169
7 Other 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 93 34.96 58.06% -0.72 1.251 0.533
Aid From Lesser Spirits 70 33.66 65.71% -1.179 0.5988 0.331
All Things Weaken 84 30.49 55.95% -1.216 0.8333 -0.406
Back Against the Wall 83 37.4 66.27% -0.323 1.6166 -0.193
Disintegrating Ecosystem 91 32.69 59.34% -0.967 1.1608 -0.179
Downward Spiral 100 30.62 68.0% -1.355 0.6058 0.061
Erosion of Will 68 33.43 58.82% -0.543 1.5387 -0.383
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 40 41.05 95.0% 0.471 0.9731 0.629
Memory Fades to Dust 104 30.88 61.54% -0.501 1.6401 -0.708
Power Corrodes the Spirit 86 32.92 56.98% -0.844 1.137 -0.852
Promising Farmlands 81 30.46 56.79% -1.191 0.831 -0.409
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 24 38.0 83.33% 0.091 0.5874 -0.08
Thriving Communities 77 29.06 55.84% -0.849 1.2106 -0.291
Unnatural Proliferation 92 36.89 65.22% -0.807 1.15 -0.483
Untended Land Crumbles 86 26.62 53.49% -0.983 1.0507 -0.965

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 560 48.01% 35.3 75.89% -0.172 0.5642 0.031
B 576 48.42% 34.66 79.69% -0.041 0.6558 -0.382
C 692 46.13% 35.86 81.36% 0.172 0.6418 0.025
D 525 40.04% 35.26 81.33% 0.114 0.824 0.351
E 517 45.93% 36.47 82.98% 0.586 1.1301 0.669
F 426 47.76% 34.91 81.69% 0.041 0.7029 -0.107
G 369 49.18% 34.98 78.86% -0.272 0.3591 -0.182
H 430 48.46% 34.87 78.37% 0.388 1.053 -0.231
East 58 53.7% 41.19 72.41% 0.16 0.8211 0.132
Northeast 34 41.94% 44.62 82.35% -0.308 0.3515 0.0
Northwest 32 34.48% 45.31 78.13% -0.087 0.523 -0.24
Southeast 28 28.57% 43.54 92.86% -0.266 0.2653 -0.084
Southwest 26 26.92% 45.12 96.15% 0.0 0.9684 0.0
West 51 42.55% 42.76 80.39% -0.278 0.528 0.0

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 20.19 76.19% -0.915 1.3143 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 38.46% 23.74 83.87% -0.219 0.0073 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 55 13.73% 40.84 94.55% 0.843 -0.1373 0.024
Start of Game Growth 81 17.33% 40.17 88.89% -0.263 -0.7202 -0.059
Unlimited Undo 222 53.08% 37.78 81.08% -0.176 -0.7272 -0.038
Using Tokens but Not Events 202 32.8% 29.08 89.6% 0.691 0.8466 -0.712

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 89 100.0% 32.69 100.0% 0.195 0.1202 0.804
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 71 100.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.084 0.1628 -0.269
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 27 100.0% 32.52 100.0% 0.382 0.1576 0.015
Downpour Drenches the World 107 100.0% 36.05 100.0% -0.024 0.2407 -0.01
Eyes Watch From the Trees 58 100.0% 34.69 100.0% -1.035 -1.5377 -0.638
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 57 100.0% 34.91 100.0% 0.358 -0.2288 -0.893
Finder of Paths Unseen 61 100.0% 37.72 100.0% -0.026 0.3295 0.188
Fractured Days Split the Sky 13 100.0% 37.77 100.0% -0.175 -0.0931 -0.176
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 28 100.0% 38.61 100.0% 0.133 0.0379 0.218
Heart of the Wildfire 29 100.0% 38.86 100.0% 0.228 0.633 -0.536
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 79 100.0% 38.75 100.0% 0.729 0.1258 -0.679
Lightning's Swift Strike 15 862.5% 32.93 293.33% -0.295 0.0702 -0.279
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 117 36.21% 35.22 84.62% -0.918 -1.6669 -1.042
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 39 38.46% 44.23 89.74% 0.155 -0.4087 0.249
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 44 45.45% 44.91 84.09% 0.431 -0.0637 0.569
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 62 100.0% 39.1 100.0% 0.192 0.0408 -0.497
Many Minds Move as One 19 100.0% 36.16 100.0% -0.432 -1.0176 0.321
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 140 100.0% 46.11 100.0% 0.581 0.4118 1.262
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 31 100.0% 29.94 100.0% -0.39 -0.4461 -0.707
River Surges in Sunlight 15 542.86% 32.93 306.67% 0.021 -0.0533 0.056
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 22 42.11% 31.23 77.27% 0.4 0.8269 0.236
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 153 45.33% 42.95 83.01% 0.383 0.042 -0.618
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 19 100.0% 34.42 100.0% -0.528 -0.7218 0.545
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 64 100.0% 46.58 100.0% -0.268 -0.4597 0.306
Shifting Memory of Ages 51 100.0% 29.9 100.0% -0.261 -0.0465 -0.973
Shroud of Silent Mist 33 100.0% 35.12 100.0% -0.421 -0.2871 0.353
Starlight Seeks its Form 48 100.0% 40.04 100.0% 0.918 0.8029 1.154
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 66 100.0% 45.76 100.0% -0.15 -0.3884 0.195
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 52 100.0% 42.38 100.0% -0.653 -0.5229 0.887
Thunderspeaker 43 100.0% 37.81 100.0% 0.288 0.2704 0.201
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 23 100.0% 40.09 100.0% 0.465 0.2496 0.078
Vital Strength of the Earth 5 1680.0% 30.6 660.0% -0.437 0.4614 0.189
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 127 40.94% 35.81 77.95% -0.285 0.1381 -0.048
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 5 20.0% 23.6 100.0% 0.101 1.2152 0.0
Volcano Looming High 48 100.0% 37.19 100.0% 0.703 0.6826 -0.081

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 78.35%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.16%
Favors Called Due 89.69%
Mantle of Dread 89.69%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 154 22.65 11.04%
II 641 31.08 56.16%
III 1126 34.66 89.79%
IV 503 37.91 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 17
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 999
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 353
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 499
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 171
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 10
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 337
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.173 Win Model: -0.293

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.42 Win Model: 0.488
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1415 51.49% 31.6 75.76%
2 517 50.98% 34.2 78.14%
3 278 42.45% 38.75 83.09%
4 131 37.01% 38.94 83.21%
5 21 28.57% 38.29 90.48%
6 62 39.34% 44.19 88.71%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)