Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 17 29.41% 29.71 88.24% 0.04 -0.407 0.418
Blitz 0 23 40.91% 28.13 78.26% -0.313 0.1434 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 13 15.38% 46.38 69.23% -0.809 -0.7895 -0.238
Despicable Theft 2 9 22.22% 31.89 100.0% 0.152 0.6647 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 20 50.0% 28.8 75.0% 0.849 1.5478 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 181 17.13% 49.48 88.4% 0.131 0.1724 0.929
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 33.33% 39.33 100.0% 0.0 0.5618 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 47.29 71.43% 0.075 -0.2132 0.016
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 100.0% 31.33 66.67% 0.0 0.4303 0.0
Second Wave 0 70 47.83% 28.77 74.29% -0.425 0.0371 0.296
The Great River 3 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0% -0.534 1.2321 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 32 65.63% 28.72 62.5% -0.642 0.1862 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 8 37.5% 29.25 62.5% 0.268 1.0118 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1596 52.05% 31.49 74.94% 0.297 0.8469 -0.445
1 Thematic 32 65.63% 32.81 40.63% -1.026 -0.0282 -0.989
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 345 50.3% 33.29 77.97% 0.897 1.3072 -0.004
2 Coastline 74 45.95% 40.62 79.73% 0.347 0.4828 -0.103
2 Fragment 10 80.0% 34.4 70.0% 0.0 -0.0049 0.0
2 Heart 17 76.47% 33.53 47.06% -0.35 0.125 0.787
2 Opposite Shores 97 41.24% 32.73 85.57% 0.178 0.5316 0.431
2 Thematic 21 35.29% 30.24 61.9% -0.945 -0.0153 0.0
2 Top to Top 21 71.43% 36.43 90.48% 0.31 0.4371 0.526
3 Archipelago 5 60.0% 43.6 80.0% 0.066 0.2448 0.133
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 34.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.4167 0.309
3 Other 19 42.11% 27.58 84.21% 0.043 -0.6758 -0.616
3 Round (Default) 301 39.87% 38.03 82.39% 0.064 0.2573 -0.607
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 6 83.33% 36.0 66.67% -0.173 -0.1585 0.0
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4195 0.0
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0727 0.0
4 Other 9 33.33% 29.44 88.89% 0.298 -0.3185 0.132
4 Thematic 8 62.5% 61.88 87.5% 0.435 0.7172 0.521
4 Trapezoid (Default) 136 34.11% 38.26 81.62% -0.061 0.1264 0.288
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3838 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.152 0.2593 0.0
5 Other 17 29.41% 40.41 94.12% -0.312 -0.9424 0.556
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.109 -0.8655 0.0
6 Archipelago 2 0.0% 43.0 100.0% 0.038 -0.0324 0.0
6 Other 14 50.0% 35.86 85.71% 0.109 -0.1333 -0.213
6 Star 12 66.67% 46.25 75.0% 0.0 0.5458 -0.74
6 Thematic 17 17.65% 46.41 88.24% -0.209 -0.1635 -0.23
6 Two Centers (Default) 24 34.78% 42.21 87.5% -0.235 0.228 0.246
7 Other 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3606 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 105 34.55 58.1% -0.635 1.0953 0.393
Aid From Lesser Spirits 79 34.68 64.56% -0.918 0.658 0.333
All Things Weaken 96 30.06 56.25% -0.432 1.4455 -0.439
Back Against the Wall 94 37.06 64.89% -1.237 0.3999 -0.086
Disintegrating Ecosystem 105 32.45 57.14% -1.171 0.6718 -0.104
Downward Spiral 113 30.26 67.26% -1.074 0.6244 0.073
Erosion of Will 83 32.25 55.42% -1.795 0.105 -0.257
Intensifying Exploitation 1 12.0 0.0% -0.671 0.2176 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 48 39.83 89.58% -0.549 -0.0488 0.277
Memory Fades to Dust 117 30.54 62.39% -0.237 1.6394 -0.796
Power Corrodes the Spirit 99 32.75 58.59% -0.275 1.43 -0.711
Promising Farmlands 86 30.5 55.81% -0.916 0.9592 -0.378
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 27 37.33 85.19% 0.637 0.8468 -0.041
Thriving Communities 96 30.2 54.17% -0.596 1.2745 -0.037
Unnatural Proliferation 107 35.84 59.81% -1.034 0.72 -0.651
Untended Land Crumbles 100 26.29 50.0% -1.386 0.4285 -1.278

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 657 46.15% 34.92 76.1% 0.008 0.7857 -0.219
B 663 47.09% 34.42 79.34% 0.679 1.3823 -0.092
C 807 45.35% 35.43 80.05% 0.034 0.5618 -0.042
D 613 39.97% 35.07 81.24% 0.141 0.8755 0.525
E 588 45.83% 36.09 81.97% 0.494 1.0779 0.515
F 484 47.5% 34.61 80.37% 0.058 0.7656 0.159
G 420 49.16% 35.04 78.33% 0.454 1.096 0.081
H 483 48.2% 34.09 77.43% -0.028 0.6175 -0.246
East 69 49.23% 39.12 66.67% -0.305 0.2865 0.092
Northeast 39 38.89% 42.1 76.92% -0.742 -0.0654 0.0
Northwest 42 35.9% 42.33 71.43% 0.298 0.7353 -0.202
Southeast 31 25.81% 40.74 83.87% -0.278 0.3858 -0.05
Southwest 28 28.57% 42.25 89.29% -0.481 0.6908 -0.539
West 62 43.1% 40.63 74.19% -0.302 0.5157 0.0

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 26 0.0% 17.38 65.38% -1.361 0.7141 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 38 31.25% 23.55 84.21% 0.293 0.4642 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 67 14.29% 41.63 92.54% 0.087 -0.9721 0.035
Start of Game Growth 96 16.67% 40.65 88.54% 0.311 -0.1111 -0.015
Unlimited Undo 270 51.55% 37.27 80.0% -0.217 -0.632 0.226
Using Tokens but Not Events 271 29.88% 29.39 87.45% 0.277 0.3922 -0.555

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 102 100.0% 32.71 100.0% -0.14 -0.3197 0.317
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 85 100.0% 35.22 100.0% 0.548 0.5619 -0.434
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 35 100.0% 32.11 100.0% 0.178 -0.0673 0.341
Downpour Drenches the World 116 100.0% 35.9 100.0% -0.288 0.0999 -0.13
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 4 100.0% 23.75 100.0% 0.336 0.5718 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 68 100.0% 33.51 100.0% -0.659 -1.1322 -0.56
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 66 100.0% 34.58 100.0% -0.476 -0.9225 -0.914
Finder of Paths Unseen 66 100.0% 38.42 100.0% 0.553 0.9161 0.273
Fractured Days Split the Sky 14 100.0% 35.86 100.0% 0.191 0.2948 -0.063
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 36 100.0% 40.11 100.0% 0.83 0.7651 0.044
Heart of the Wildfire 37 100.0% 38.38 100.0% -0.203 0.0563 -0.632
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 96 100.0% 37.75 100.0% 0.181 -0.4017 -0.624
Lightning's Swift Strike 19 790.0% 29.0 268.42% -0.529 -0.2609 -0.378
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 126 34.4% 34.21 84.13% -0.288 -1.102 -0.967
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 43 37.21% 43.0 90.7% -0.136 -0.6783 0.365
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 53 45.28% 46.28 84.91% 0.332 -0.1453 0.602
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 67 100.0% 40.21 100.0% 0.407 0.2856 -0.416
Many Minds Move as One 26 100.0% 35.27 100.0% 0.281 -0.3415 0.308
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 157 100.0% 45.74 100.0% 0.226 0.099 1.27
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 37 100.0% 30.3 100.0% 0.212 0.129 -0.579
River Surges in Sunlight 20 540.74% 34.0 280.0% 0.461 0.2689 0.063
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 31 28.57% 34.35 80.65% 0.34 0.628 0.461
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 174 41.76% 41.7 82.76% 0.227 -0.1355 -0.504
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 23 100.0% 31.0 100.0% -0.679 -0.8528 0.65
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 72 100.0% 45.67 100.0% -0.421 -0.6214 0.483
Shifting Memory of Ages 57 100.0% 29.37 100.0% 0.281 0.5095 -0.832
Shroud of Silent Mist 40 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.232 0.4159 0.35
Starlight Seeks its Form 54 100.0% 39.48 100.0% 0.355 0.1983 1.318
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 71 100.0% 44.89 100.0% -0.11 -0.3739 0.259
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 59 100.0% 39.59 100.0% -0.954 -0.8911 0.55
Thunderspeaker 47 108.51% 38.04 102.13% -0.501 -0.5774 0.309
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 4 0.0% 18.0 75.0% -0.48 -0.2754 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 27 100.0% 38.7 100.0% -0.117 -0.3793 0.036
Vital Strength of the Earth 8 1077.78% 21.38 550.0% -0.52 0.2332 -0.361
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 140 40.29% 34.94 75.0% -0.381 0.1969 -0.269
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 9 44.44% 23.33 88.89% -0.155 0.9951 0.0
Volcano Looming High 51 100.0% 37.39 100.0% 0.919 0.9156 0.021

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 77.81%
Crops Wither and Fade 87.72%
Favors Called Due 89.69%
Mantle of Dread 89.51%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 182 22.63 10.44%
II 769 31.12 54.88%
III 1278 34.7 89.59%
IV 565 37.97 99.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1132
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 415
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 561
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 204
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 15
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 401
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.966 Win Model: -0.272

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.027 Win Model: 0.083
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1634 52.37% 31.55 74.3%
2 587 49.65% 34.11 78.53%
3 327 41.28% 37.91 81.96%
4 154 34.69% 38.08 82.47%
5 23 30.43% 36.39 86.96%
6 69 36.76% 43.17 86.96%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)