Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 22 31.82% 31.64 86.36% 0.581 0.5027 0.083
Blitz 0 25 41.67% 27.48 80.0% 0.648 0.7943 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 23 8.7% 31.61 47.83% -0.708 -0.9154 -0.139
Despicable Theft 2 9 22.22% 31.89 100.0% 0.0 0.6827 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 24 41.67% 25.17 62.5% -0.199 0.5321 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 222 16.22% 49.78 87.84% 1.119 0.5126 1.182
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 33.33% 27.5 66.67% -0.183 0.3051 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 8 50.0% 41.38 62.5% -0.153 -0.0476 0.086
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 100.0% 33.0 66.67% 0.037 1.0289 0.345
Second Wave 0 85 42.86% 28.64 71.76% -0.217 -0.154 0.346
The Great River 3 2 50.0% 8.0 0.0% -0.262 1.0867 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 34 64.71% 27.88 61.76% -0.574 -0.0118 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 10 30.0% 23.4 50.0% -0.66 0.5494 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1939 50.67% 29.95 71.48% -0.256 -0.0463 -0.514
1 Thematic 49 63.27% 31.12 40.82% -0.256 0.3425 -0.747
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 451 48.16% 30.18 69.84% -0.338 -0.1775 -0.291
2 Coastline 84 48.81% 39.85 79.76% 0.308 0.3688 0.114
2 Fragment 14 78.57% 33.43 64.29% -0.193 -0.2566 -0.359
2 Heart 20 70.0% 32.2 55.0% 0.538 0.2997 1.052
2 Opposite Shores 117 36.75% 34.92 85.47% 0.917 1.0502 0.369
2 Thematic 35 29.03% 26.03 57.14% -0.333 0.3035 -0.48
2 Top to Top 23 73.91% 34.91 86.96% -0.395 -0.3543 0.61
3 Archipelago 6 66.67% 49.33 83.33% 0.497 -0.5898 0.364
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 34.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.498 0.334
3 Other 22 36.36% 26.41 81.82% -0.361 -0.251 -0.525
3 Round (Default) 364 39.12% 36.31 81.04% 0.539 0.4975 -0.512
3 Sunrise 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1962 0.0
3 Thematic 10 60.0% 32.1 60.0% 0.345 0.3808 0.4
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2146 0.0
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1222 0.0
4 Other 11 45.45% 30.0 81.82% -0.305 -1.1544 0.15
4 Thematic 12 41.67% 49.42 66.67% -0.505 -0.5226 0.549
4 Trapezoid (Default) 170 31.9% 34.4 74.71% -0.089 -0.2757 0.063
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.706 0.6627 0.122
5 Other 23 21.74% 35.57 86.96% 0.693 0.1843 0.789
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.33 0.0
6 Archipelago 2 0.0% 43.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.305 0.0
6 Coastline 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.6437 0.0
6 Other 15 53.33% 36.67 86.67% 0.374 -0.0205 -0.158
6 Star 13 61.54% 42.69 69.23% -0.448 0.0275 -0.532
6 Thematic 33 15.15% 30.36 54.55% -0.74 -0.3414 -0.851
6 Two Centers (Default) 38 27.03% 33.26 73.68% -0.415 -0.3716 0.386
7 Other 2 0.0% 24.5 50.0% -0.242 -1.0152 -0.353

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 120 34.78 58.33% 0.537 0.808 0.689
Aid From Lesser Spirits 90 32.66 58.89% -1.055 -1.0167 0.421
All Things Weaken 107 29.29 52.34% -0.926 -0.4651 0.007
Attenuated Essence 14 22.36 35.71% -0.621 -0.4149 0.0
Back Against the Wall 110 37.88 65.45% 0.823 0.9849 0.244
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 14.17 33.33% -0.682 -0.2679 -0.302
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 27.83 50.0% -0.177 0.1278 -0.168
Disintegrating Ecosystem 120 31.74 55.0% -0.949 -0.4222 0.113
Downward Spiral 128 29.05 66.41% -0.005 0.3481 0.331
Erosion of Will 90 32.03 55.56% -0.269 0.1393 -0.067
Intensifying Exploitation 14 22.93 42.86% -0.288 0.0994 -0.483
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 56 37.7 87.5% 0.675 0.15 0.173
Memory Fades to Dust 139 30.05 64.75% 0.808 1.2892 -0.629
Power Corrodes the Spirit 113 32.54 58.41% 0.096 0.4011 -0.55
Promising Farmlands 99 30.24 56.57% -0.283 0.3031 -0.033
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 18.85 23.08% -1.096 -0.9174 -0.636
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 29.88 37.5% -0.404 0.1293 -0.526
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 36.77 80.0% -0.629 -1.3067 0.114
The Border of Life and Death 3 20.0 66.67% 0.292 0.1622 -0.218
Thriving Communities 104 30.08 52.88% -0.285 0.2078 0.208
Thriving Crops 2 27.5 50.0% -0.221 -0.1327 -0.251
Unnatural Proliferation 123 34.49 59.35% -0.286 0.0106 -0.407
Untended Land Crumbles 114 25.31 47.37% -0.919 -0.5611 -1.161

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 818 43.39% 32.76 72.74% -0.124 0.7162 -0.074
B 821 45.16% 32.61 75.88% 0.428 1.207 0.132
C 977 42.96% 33.82 76.15% 0.271 0.9246 0.099
D 763 39.49% 32.62 76.15% 0.165 0.9638 0.315
E 712 43.16% 33.83 77.81% 0.476 1.1047 0.762
F 621 46.74% 32.11 76.17% 0.236 0.9553 0.293
G 535 48.49% 32.34 71.78% -0.146 0.5956 -0.27
H 584 45.26% 31.79 72.77% 0.224 0.8716 -0.148
East 114 36.36% 31.35 55.26% -0.385 0.2188 -0.322
Northeast 70 31.34% 30.81 57.14% -0.578 0.303 -0.313
Northwest 71 33.82% 32.97 53.52% 0.174 0.8473 -0.053
Southeast 56 19.64% 31.73 62.5% -0.056 0.5807 0.248
Southwest 48 22.92% 32.04 62.5% 0.218 1.3821 -0.455
West 101 36.08% 32.55 56.44% -0.863 0.1011 -0.232

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 39 0.0% 12.46 48.72% -1.08 -0.1968 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 65 29.17% 17.98 64.62% -0.838 -0.5063 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 84 12.66% 39.67 85.71% 0.966 0.431 -0.822
Start of Game Growth 115 14.81% 38.01 81.74% -0.521 -0.8515 -0.364
Unlimited Undo 327 50.97% 34.81 74.01% 0.05 0.0285 0.459
Using Tokens but Not Events 365 27.11% 28.76 80.82% 0.02 -0.0344 -0.544

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 127 100.0% 29.44 100.0% 0.605 0.4456 0.007
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 97 100.0% 32.93 100.0% 0.114 0.2362 -0.217
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 52 100.0% 25.63 100.0% -0.695 -0.8631 -0.482
Downpour Drenches the World 137 100.0% 33.0 100.0% -0.561 -0.3818 0.026
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 35 100.0% 30.31 100.0% 0.655 -0.0665 -0.116
Eyes Watch From the Trees 91 100.0% 32.07 100.0% 0.476 -0.1128 -0.247
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 88 100.0% 30.22 100.0% -0.178 -0.6495 -1.202
Finder of Paths Unseen 78 100.0% 35.99 100.0% -0.037 0.6567 0.223
Fractured Days Split the Sky 20 100.0% 26.15 100.0% -0.47 0.2144 -0.607
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 55 100.0% 35.45 100.0% -0.128 -0.2288 0.236
Heart of the Wildfire 53 100.0% 32.3 100.0% -0.542 -0.2979 -0.925
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 120 100.0% 33.34 100.0% -0.033 -0.4833 -0.44
Lightning's Swift Strike 33 582.86% 23.94 254.55% -0.006 0.1975 -0.138
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 142 34.04% 34.21 83.1% 0.84 0.1429 -0.77
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 54 37.74% 38.26 83.33% 0.695 0.4554 0.456
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 73 41.1% 39.48 75.34% -0.004 -0.1642 0.633
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 88 100.0% 35.28 100.0% -0.074 -0.2189 -0.22
Many Minds Move as One 34 100.0% 32.21 100.0% 0.222 0.0011 0.246
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 193 100.0% 42.32 100.0% 0.304 0.2948 1.153
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 45 100.0% 28.71 100.0% 0.126 -0.0157 -0.485
River Surges in Sunlight 28 529.73% 28.96 296.43% -0.251 -0.2479 0.141
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 60 26.32% 31.7 71.67% -0.246 0.0237 0.321
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 199 39.38% 40.56 80.9% 0.965 0.8354 -0.042
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 33 100.0% 30.52 100.0% 0.277 0.0635 0.266
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 77 120.78% 44.38 107.79% -0.475 -0.603 0.835
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 22 27.27% 27.82 72.73% 0.355 -0.0078 0.429
Shifting Memory of Ages 77 100.0% 26.84 100.0% -0.172 0.235 -0.793
Shroud of Silent Mist 50 100.0% 29.78 100.0% -0.403 -0.0876 0.051
Starlight Seeks its Form 67 100.0% 36.43 100.0% 0.286 0.0134 1.195
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 82 100.0% 42.56 100.0% 0.176 -0.3193 0.511
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 80 100.0% 34.38 100.0% -0.087 -0.0562 0.476
Thunderspeaker 51 129.41% 37.2 111.76% 0.18 0.1609 0.413
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 19 21.05% 24.74 68.42% 0.063 -0.0005 -0.409
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 33 100.0% 34.88 100.0% -0.628 -0.5665 0.288
Vital Strength of the Earth 16 652.63% 13.56 387.5% -0.888 -0.3356 -0.037
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 162 38.13% 33.75 74.07% -0.053 0.2034 -0.204
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 13 50.0% 22.08 69.23% -0.264 0.6331 -0.231
Volcano Looming High 66 100.0% 32.62 100.0% -0.386 -0.3765 -0.153

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 79.09%
Crops Wither and Fade 87.97%
Favors Called Due 89.67%
Mantle of Dread 89.62%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 360 21.03 6.39%
II 961 31.04 52.55%
III 1493 34.74 89.75%
IV 650 38.02 99.85%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 23
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1325
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 496
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 646
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 190
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 241
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 18
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 478
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.344 Win Model: -0.181

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.213 Win Model: -0.203
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1997 50.96% 29.96 70.66%
2 743 47.65% 32.19 73.35%
3 399 39.95% 36.21 80.45%
4 193 32.8% 34.35 74.61%
5 30 23.33% 32.27 80.0%
6 102 30.69% 34.91 70.59%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)