Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 33 27.27% 31.06 87.88% 0.975 0.7886 0.042
Blitz 0 55 25.93% 27.69 61.82% -0.799 -0.6682 0.319
Dahan Insurrection 4 56 8.93% 25.02 33.93% -1.135 -1.3904 0.058
Despicable Theft 2 18 16.67% 27.28 72.22% 0.052 0.5929 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 40 45.0% 21.0 52.5% -0.525 0.3317 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 326 13.8% 48.76 86.5% 1.699 0.9279 1.24
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 36.36% 22.05 54.55% -0.582 0.3527 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 15 33.33% 31.67 53.33% 0.159 0.2551 0.298
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 57.14% 30.79 64.29% 0.489 1.6861 0.489
Second Wave 0 149 42.76% 27.56 66.44% 0.12 0.2062 0.662
The Great River 3 13 38.46% 24.92 46.15% 0.503 1.8645 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 45 57.78% 24.22 55.56% -0.22 0.5685 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 17 35.29% 17.47 35.29% -0.431 0.601 -0.1

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3236 49.11% 26.36 62.58% -0.097 0.0941 -0.336
1 Thematic 103 49.51% 24.18 39.81% -0.494 0.1512 -0.774
2 Archipelago 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.363 0.7944 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 842 46.93% 27.12 63.9% 0.141 0.1376 0.461
2 Coastline 140 43.8% 32.35 72.14% -0.045 0.0104 0.233
2 Fragment 21 66.67% 28.24 52.38% -0.551 -0.8173 -0.342
2 Heart 28 71.43% 31.18 46.43% -0.794 -0.8329 0.926
2 Opposite Shores 207 31.88% 32.23 80.19% 0.794 0.8084 0.258
2 Thematic 58 29.63% 26.03 56.9% -0.258 -0.0614 -0.501
2 Top to Top 39 69.23% 33.59 66.67% 0.067 -0.0306 0.316
3 Archipelago 7 57.14% 42.29 71.43% 0.0 -0.4467 0.574
3 Coastline 3 33.33% 34.67 100.0% 0.0 -1.0241 0.385
3 Other 32 31.25% 26.03 78.13% 1.0 0.6076 -0.304
3 Round (Default) 618 40.75% 32.61 72.49% 0.36 0.0247 -0.131
3 Sunrise 6 16.67% 29.33 83.33% 0.0 0.2427 0.0
3 Thematic 25 40.0% 26.96 52.0% 0.044 -0.2402 0.492
4 Archipelago 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.157 0.0
4 Coastline 2 0.0% 13.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.9386 0.0
4 Leaf 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.247 0.0984 0.0
4 Other 17 52.94% 29.41 88.24% 0.0 -1.3295 -0.091
4 Thematic 21 42.86% 37.62 52.38% 1.033 0.9537 -0.32
4 Trapezoid (Default) 277 35.32% 31.52 71.12% 0.396 0.2396 -0.232
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.0 0.6745 0.0
5 Coastline 1 100.0% 7.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.9121 0.225
5 Other 48 25.0% 28.81 64.58% 0.293 -0.7814 0.992
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0068 0.0
6 Archipelago 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0% -0.622 -1.9212 0.0
6 Coastline 2 50.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.748 0.0
6 Other 31 32.26% 28.97 77.42% 0.453 0.2501 -0.1
6 Star 24 37.5% 28.83 58.33% -0.587 -0.4872 -0.618
6 Thematic 69 20.29% 22.33 37.68% -0.558 0.091 -0.479
6 Two Centers (Default) 71 22.86% 25.76 56.34% -1.168 -1.5026 -0.372
7 Other 3 0.0% 16.33 33.33% 0.0 0.3961 -0.292

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 163 31.75 54.6% -0.41 -0.2802 0.519
Aid From Lesser Spirits 140 31.51 58.57% 0.499 0.3808 0.607
All Things Weaken 180 26.42 51.67% 0.034 0.3418 -0.057
Attenuated Essence 50 23.54 44.0% -0.3 -0.2683 -0.651
Back Against the Wall 143 37.29 65.03% 1.11 1.14 0.897
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 44 24.89 47.73% 0.009 0.1952 0.138
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 29.07 45.45% 0.358 0.4283 0.427
Disintegrating Ecosystem 180 29.28 51.67% -0.178 0.1978 0.204
Downward Spiral 204 26.84 62.25% 0.437 0.6029 0.184
Erosion of Will 150 28.88 52.0% 0.004 0.2183 -0.183
Intensifying Exploitation 47 26.7 51.06% -0.023 0.2184 -0.094
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 75 36.24 84.0% 0.254 -0.3274 0.528
Memory Fades to Dust 229 27.89 60.7% 0.097 0.3901 -0.326
Power Corrodes the Spirit 173 31.76 56.07% -0.04 0.1215 -0.076
Promising Farmlands 169 27.65 50.89% -0.182 0.114 -0.229
Shattered Fragments of Power 41 24.76 43.9% -0.048 0.04 -0.162
Slow Dissolution of Will 44 21.5 40.91% -0.424 -0.0311 -0.516
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 32.67 71.74% -0.649 -1.3605 0.271
The Border of Life and Death 8 21.75 50.0% -0.582 -1.0617 -0.17
Thriving Communities 154 27.48 48.7% -0.13 0.17 0.233
Thriving Crops 17 26.53 64.71% 0.44 0.3383 -0.374
Unnatural Proliferation 176 32.61 56.25% -0.115 0.0539 0.01
Untended Land Crumbles 175 24.41 49.14% -0.547 -0.2885 -1.004

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1393 40.19% 28.88 66.12% -0.293 0.8498 0.184
B 1454 43.13% 28.47 66.44% 0.285 1.34 -0.021
C 1612 41.1% 30.08 69.35% -0.086 0.802 0.235
D 1340 39.68% 28.56 66.87% 0.02 1.0744 0.412
E 1263 42.98% 29.51 68.01% -0.032 0.8725 0.685
F 1081 43.8% 27.52 65.77% -0.349 0.6556 0.23
G 931 46.67% 28.98 65.31% 0.305 1.2731 -0.125
H 976 44.69% 28.61 65.98% 0.401 1.3933 -0.046
East 220 31.48% 26.08 46.36% 0.346 1.3344 -0.309
Northeast 148 29.66% 24.17 42.57% -0.708 0.2416 -0.277
Northwest 133 32.31% 26.92 45.86% -0.192 0.8491 -0.249
Southeast 117 21.37% 25.15 47.86% 0.209 1.1271 0.42
Southwest 106 26.42% 22.94 43.4% 0.076 1.5329 -0.5
West 200 35.2% 25.54 46.0% 0.036 1.1428 -0.667

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 100 0.0% 9.0 35.0% -1.18 -0.5163 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 163 38.38% 12.77 47.24% -0.482 0.0117 -0.186
Skip Initial Invader Actions 129 12.07% 37.99 79.07% 0.006 -0.6169 -0.477
Start of Game Growth 188 14.71% 34.76 73.94% 0.655 0.2431 0.041
Unlimited Undo 515 45.68% 30.36 64.66% -0.346 -0.4409 0.252
Using Tokens but Not Events 635 26.04% 25.7 69.45% -0.132 -0.0568 -0.819

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 237 24.26% 28.78 78.48% 0.906 0.8703 0.451
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 181 35.0% 27.19 65.75% -0.007 0.1516 -0.699
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence 24 29.17% 25.13 50.0% 0.042 -0.9708 0.111
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 115 40.74% 22.97 60.0% 0.032 -0.1803 -0.508
Downpour Drenches the World 207 41.18% 29.66 63.29% 0.315 0.5624 0.101
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 77 37.66% 26.64 58.44% -0.28 -0.8428 0.067
Eyes Watch From the Trees 164 31.68% 28.58 67.68% 0.345 -0.1344 -0.125
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 159 32.9% 24.59 59.75% -1.078 -1.4838 -1.65
Finder of Paths Unseen 115 38.6% 31.17 70.43% 0.303 1.0647 0.349
Fractured Days Split the Sky 71 39.44% 25.27 54.93% -0.032 0.6302 -0.176
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 100 39.0% 29.04 68.0% -0.326 -0.3288 0.201
Heart of the Wildfire 97 54.74% 25.62 52.58% -0.751 -0.3814 -0.741
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 189 36.56% 31.98 69.84% -0.618 -1.044 -0.042
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds — Spreading Hostility 24 8.33% 7.17 16.67% -0.992 -1.4848 -0.548
Lightning's Swift Strike 64 46.67% 22.0 59.38% -0.532 -0.3192 -0.087
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 202 37.56% 31.09 75.25% -0.064 -0.6796 -0.1
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 89 36.36% 32.45 76.4% -0.364 -0.65 0.275
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 129 36.72% 32.48 66.67% -0.046 -0.1483 0.576
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 173 36.26% 27.53 56.07% -0.425 -0.6716 -0.757
Many Minds Move as One 79 32.91% 28.42 63.29% -0.038 -0.199 0.269
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 322 31.25% 38.03 72.98% 0.238 0.2719 1.155
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 108 34.0% 23.44 60.19% -0.206 -0.3727 -0.405
River Surges in Sunlight 51 42.55% 27.24 72.55% 1.121 1.1484 0.731
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 118 20.87% 30.98 64.41% 0.185 0.5245 -0.004
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 282 39.56% 36.79 76.24% 0.701 0.6699 0.607
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 92 31.11% 25.79 57.61% -0.254 -0.3645 -0.345
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 113 38.74% 38.96 76.11% 0.574 0.5528 0.818
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 55 23.64% 25.78 70.91% 0.604 0.2719 0.039
Shifting Memory of Ages 125 43.2% 26.37 64.0% -0.021 0.2599 -0.192
Shroud of Silent Mist 103 47.57% 26.1 62.14% 0.687 0.96 0.475
Starlight Seeks its Form 120 43.33% 29.6 70.83% -0.054 -0.2737 0.463
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 126 41.6% 34.86 64.29% 0.882 0.4346 0.285
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 138 31.58% 29.84 63.04% -0.314 -0.1922 0.692
Thunderspeaker 93 42.39% 32.58 75.27% 0.442 0.4602 0.259
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 53 30.19% 20.77 49.06% -0.407 -0.2024 0.246
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 66 50.77% 30.11 65.15% 0.694 0.8684 0.134
Vital Strength of the Earth 38 32.35% 16.61 47.37% 0.168 0.7397 -0.243
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 221 35.16% 29.89 67.87% -0.841 -0.4598 -0.425
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 37 42.86% 20.89 70.27% 0.168 0.9258 -0.298
Volcano Looming High 95 57.89% 30.09 63.16% -0.508 -0.5346 -0.279
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium 22 18.18% 20.09 54.55% -0.328 -0.8615 -0.519

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 80.41%
Crops Wither and Fade 89.03%
Favors Called Due 89.85%
Mantle of Dread 89.52%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1081 16.77 3.52%
II 1555 30.59 46.82%
III 2248 34.74 89.15%
IV 1058 38.3 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 38
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1982
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 713
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1048
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 941
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11
Lose: Adversary condition 368
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 744
Lose: Spirit destroyed 25

Difficulty

Score Model: 0.888 Win Model: -0.171

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.027 Win Model: -0.061
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3352 49.08% 26.27 61.78%
2 1335 44.97% 28.79 66.89%
3 687 40.15% 32.34 71.76%
4 311 36.63% 31.35 71.06%
5 53 24.53% 28.53 66.04%
6 204 24.14% 25.71 54.9%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)