Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 43 32.56% 25.21 67.44% 0.401 0.1456 -0.93
Blitz 0 34 21.21% 37.26 58.82% -1.344 -1.1472 -0.656
Dahan Insurrection 4 73 29.17% 41.25 64.38% 0.105 -0.3377 0.225
Despicable Theft 2 49 40.82% 22.92 57.14% 0.272 1.0838 -0.421
Elemental Invocation 1 29 41.38% 25.62 58.62% -0.478 0.2249 -0.962
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 597 14.84% 44.62 76.05% 1.264 0.6194 0.517
Powers Long Forgotten 1 36 38.89% 14.14 27.78% -1.379 -0.7436 -1.146
Rituals of Terror 3 32 40.63% 39.16 62.5% -0.489 -0.388 -0.437
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 20 45.0% 19.0 30.0% -0.849 0.1598 -1.397
Second Wave 0 245 35.39% 27.1 73.47% 0.762 0.8282 -0.728
The Great River 3 23 60.87% 31.52 43.48% -1.017 0.2001 -1.129
Varied Terrains 2 78 56.41% 27.9 52.56% 0.2 0.8234 -0.963
Ward the Shores 2 39 43.59% 30.67 66.67% 0.42 1.5043 -0.232

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4835 56.47% 21.64 50.69% -0.592 -0.5377 -0.079
1 Thematic 132 53.79% 29.95 53.79% -0.327 0.1504 -1.023
2 Archipelago 47 27.66% 36.34 65.96% -0.607 -0.5029 0.768
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2320 44.75% 30.63 65.39% -0.049 0.0335 0.124
2 Coastline 528 37.9% 29.62 70.45% -0.057 -0.2111 0.451
2 Fragment 63 68.25% 29.02 58.73% 0.144 -0.1052 0.811
2 Heart 42 66.67% 27.38 57.14% 0.874 0.5873 -0.242
2 Opposite Shores 818 35.37% 27.46 68.34% 0.183 0.2062 -0.859
2 Thematic 120 36.67% 27.77 55.83% -0.275 0.1284 1.245
2 Top to Top 141 41.73% 32.38 64.54% -0.563 -0.7287 0.026
3 Archipelago 32 37.5% 51.53 87.5% 1.236 -0.3131 0.153
3 Coastline 21 42.86% 30.71 71.43% 0.661 0.1471 0.424
3 Other 35 50.0% 29.0 60.0% 0.482 1.0227 1.169
3 Round (Default) 1373 39.14% 31.9 69.99% -0.075 -0.1905 -0.436
3 Sunrise 2 50.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.0 0.2798 0.0
3 Thematic 43 32.56% 42.53 81.4% -0.355 -0.2748 1.026
4 Archipelago 38 44.74% 45.03 73.68% 0.066 -0.6089 0.63
4 Coastline 5 20.0% 40.6 80.0% 0.053 0.2842 0.341
4 Leaf 3 0.0% 33.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.3433 0.0
4 Other 38 42.11% 28.11 84.21% 0.489 -0.5953 -0.237
4 Thematic 61 39.34% 35.82 50.82% -0.335 -0.597 -0.766
4 Trapezoid (Default) 655 33.33% 31.76 70.69% -0.515 -0.5979 -0.483
5 Archipelago 8 25.0% 47.13 75.0% 0.551 -0.3653 -0.492
5 Coastline 3 33.33% 34.0 100.0% 0.099 -0.5529 0.35
5 Other 96 32.29% 28.34 75.0% -0.513 -0.798 -0.431
5 Thematic 19 42.11% 37.0 57.89% -0.552 -0.6454 -0.221
6 Archipelago 41 12.2% 57.29 78.05% -0.623 -0.4715 -1.301
6 Coastline 5 20.0% 34.4 60.0% -0.036 -0.8374 -0.822
6 Other 79 26.58% 38.82 82.28% 0.226 -0.0066 -1.737
6 Star 27 29.63% 48.56 88.89% 1.169 1.1561 0.516
6 Thematic 220 53.3% 44.99 69.09% -0.453 -0.0322 -0.401
6 Two Centers (Default) 196 21.03% 41.53 74.49% -1.296 -1.1918 -0.975
7 Archipelago 11 27.27% 56.64 54.55% -0.595 -0.6141 -0.737
7 Other 9 33.33% 20.0 66.67% -0.266 -0.8787 -0.303

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 385 28.65 46.75% 0.562 0.804 -0.342
Aid From Lesser Spirits 327 30.86 58.1% 1.066 0.9886 0.499
All Things Weaken 373 27.83 45.58% -0.406 -0.013 -0.019
Attenuated Essence 56 24.55 50.0% 0.658 0.765 -0.994
Back Against the Wall 348 30.8 56.32% 0.779 0.837 0.065
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 51 21.88 37.25% 0.102 0.3035 -0.535
Burn Brightest Before the End 42 27.93 40.48% 0.094 0.3048 -0.333
Disintegrating Ecosystem 363 27.09 48.48% 0.363 0.7865 0.044
Downward Spiral 454 26.35 47.8% 0.333 0.5686 -0.136
Erosion of Will 402 27.17 43.78% 0.382 0.6914 -0.299
Intensifying Exploitation 54 25.69 38.89% -0.004 0.2832 -0.039
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 128 33.42 78.13% 0.882 0.3877 0.613
Memory Fades to Dust 462 25.74 48.7% -0.271 0.0653 0.356
Power Corrodes the Spirit 341 25.31 48.97% -0.157 0.0631 -0.389
Promising Farmlands 346 27.48 47.69% 0.211 0.6646 -0.007
Shattered Fragments of Power 53 23.38 33.96% -0.1 -0.0488 -0.252
Slow Dissolution of Will 51 22.02 31.37% -0.091 0.3084 -0.599
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 101 33.93 82.18% 1.291 0.5807 0.343
The Border of Life and Death 20 24.55 45.0% 0.462 0.1263 0.168
Thriving Communities 379 25.72 43.8% 0.455 0.8176 -0.499
Thriving Crops 38 22.84 52.63% 0.618 0.4198 -0.37
Unnatural Proliferation 429 28.83 51.75% 0.595 0.8104 -0.21
Untended Land Crumbles 396 26.62 47.47% 0.711 0.9929 -0.305

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3166 40.87% 30.09 66.2% 0.184 0.9239 0.1
B 3126 41.98% 30.29 66.38% 0.373 1.0986 0.066
C 3498 43.28% 30.08 65.49% 0.055 0.637 0.244
D 2735 40.97% 29.05 64.13% 0.213 0.9239 -0.11
E 2928 41.22% 30.77 65.74% 0.237 0.8023 -0.044
F 2658 41.7% 30.88 66.85% 0.109 0.7792 -0.335
G 2267 39.8% 29.9 64.71% 0.145 0.7968 -0.431
H 2378 41.8% 29.23 64.47% 0.238 0.8082 -0.17
East 496 46.11% 38.66 64.11% 0.022 0.5611 0.141
Northeast 360 47.16% 40.52 65.56% -0.222 0.413 0.779
Northwest 379 47.71% 40.18 62.8% 0.033 0.8425 -0.593
Southeast 322 48.09% 41.89 68.32% -1.154 -0.448 0.15
Southwest 301 51.54% 41.09 67.44% -0.038 0.9519 0.416
West 490 47.1% 37.85 62.45% -0.23 0.6733 -0.244

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 86 0.0% 12.06 41.86% -0.763 0.0137 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 160 45.03% 15.64 56.25% 0.325 0.7044 0.854
Skip Initial Invader Actions 398 15.19% 47.53 82.91% 0.287 -0.331 1.709
Start of Game Growth 519 18.5% 43.93 80.92% 0.145 -0.2036 -0.406
Unlimited Undo 1339 35.92% 33.99 68.04% -0.055 -0.0614 0.705
Using Tokens but Not Events 1204 28.31% 25.41 68.94% 0.307 0.2971 0.436

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 692 100.0% 40.29 100.0% 0.527 0.3789 0.659
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 211 100.0% 30.6 100.0% -0.379 -0.2487 -0.297
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 225 100.0% 26.98 100.0% -0.11 -0.2549 -0.164
Downpour Drenches the World 1036 100.0% 33.1 100.0% -0.049 0.1307 0.373
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 496 100.0% 26.65 100.0% 0.277 -0.4882 -0.462
Eyes Watch From the Trees 265 100.0% 29.99 100.0% 0.082 -0.5064 0.442
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 201 100.0% 30.45 100.0% 0.253 -0.2437 -0.528
Fractured Days Split the Sky 377 100.0% 44.98 100.0% 0.049 0.635 0.449
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 194 100.0% 34.27 100.0% -0.163 -0.2575 0.239
Heart of the Wildfire 312 100.0% 29.34 100.0% -0.963 -0.7219 -0.228
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 884 100.0% 35.45 100.0% 0.552 0.11 0.516
Lightning's Swift Strike 131 286.67% 25.2 193.89% -0.959 -0.776 -0.798
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 258 42.52% 38.05 76.36% 0.149 -0.3378 0.71
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 46 36.96% 27.7 65.22% -0.231 -0.3985 0.294
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 133 42.11% 39.96 65.41% -0.588 -0.7012 0.145
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 642 100.0% 34.24 100.0% 0.115 -0.0174 -0.012
Many Minds Move as One 245 100.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.623 0.4021 0.711
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 945 100.0% 32.41 100.0% -0.07 -0.1123 0.065
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 331 100.0% 34.37 100.0% 0.401 0.2232 -0.046
River Surges in Sunlight 194 234.18% 32.62 170.1% -0.364 -0.294 0.022
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 66 21.54% 25.8 62.12% -0.193 0.1172 -1.102
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 356 40.28% 38.33 68.82% 0.336 0.2225 0.257
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 421 100.0% 37.54 100.0% -0.402 -0.639 -0.4
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 23 575.0% 21.52 317.39% -0.823 -0.2938 -0.625
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 61 39.34% 29.56 78.69% 0.66 0.5847 0.338
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 85 41.67% 35.46 76.47% 0.143 0.0377 0.373
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 18 27.78% 21.39 66.67% 0.344 0.3254 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 24 37.5% 21.29 54.17% -1.096 -0.9196 0.255
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 255 111.76% 36.27 106.27% 0.517 0.3274 -0.472
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 44 31.82% 29.32 63.64% 0.734 0.3531 -0.228
Shifting Memory of Ages 298 100.0% 34.18 100.0% 0.043 0.3964 -0.568
Shroud of Silent Mist 172 100.0% 28.79 100.0% -0.378 -0.1276 -0.166
Starlight Seeks its Form 612 100.0% 42.73 100.0% 0.5 0.2391 0.772
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 589 100.0% 35.88 100.0% 0.401 -0.0766 0.225
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 191 100.0% 32.78 100.0% 0.281 0.3442 0.235
Thunderspeaker 334 110.15% 34.71 108.38% -0.088 -0.1223 0.213
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 49 29.17% 22.24 42.86% -0.14 -0.1791 -0.191
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 275 100.0% 31.9 100.0% -0.356 -0.2633 -0.171
Vital Strength of the Earth 74 267.53% 25.58 204.05% 0.361 0.8856 0.285
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 194 47.4% 34.63 70.1% 0.519 0.7795 -0.053
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 44 34.88% 24.52 56.82% -0.544 0.2321 -0.808
Volcano Looming High 809 100.0% 33.54 100.0% 0.288 0.2448 0.101

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Circuitous and Wending Journey 80.28%
Aid From the Spirit-Speakers 85.34%
Offer Passage Between Worlds 87.64%
Paths Tied by Nature 78.02%
Traveler's Boon 72.3%
Ways of Shore and Heartland 76.5%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3908 20.4 15.17%
II 4176 31.01 73.9%
III 3093 34.76 90.62%
IV 908 38.07 99.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 590
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2724
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3001
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 883
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1703
Lose: Invader deck ran out 206
Lose: Adversary condition 788
Win: Sacrifice victory 117
Lose: Scenario condition 81
Win: Scenario condition 73
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1650
Lose: Spirit destroyed 269

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.5 Win Model: -0.069

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.775 Win Model: 0.224
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 5033 56.5% 21.87 50.9%
2 4065 41.9% 29.97 66.27%
3 1490 39.11% 32.46 70.74%
4 806 33.79% 32.45 70.35%
5 106 35.85% 31.5 71.7%
6 585 34.03% 44.41 74.36%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)