Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 40.0% 26.27 66.67% -0.166 0.33 -0.742
Blitz 0 19 33.33% 51.26 84.21% 0.181 0.6239 -0.474
Dahan Insurrection 4 36 36.11% 50.83 75.0% -0.442 -0.3449 0.158
Despicable Theft 2 25 44.0% 30.2 72.0% 0.733 1.2314 -0.489
Elemental Invocation 1 16 43.75% 33.38 75.0% 0.135 0.6805 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 369 13.39% 48.02 79.67% -0.219 0.0125 -0.645
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 75.0% 30.75 66.67% -0.012 0.3952 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 23 47.83% 49.13 78.26% 0.241 0.0053 -0.163
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 11 72.73% 32.09 45.45% -0.11 0.1165 -0.498
Second Wave 0 139 34.78% 29.24 76.26% -0.286 0.4066 -0.955
The Great River 3 15 53.33% 38.0 66.67% -0.614 0.9677 -0.511
Varied Terrains 2 43 69.77% 29.26 58.14% -0.664 0.1222 0.209
Ward the Shores 2 22 36.36% 34.64 77.27% -0.059 0.8223 0.354

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 266 28.7 48.12% -1.684 0.2864 -0.862
Aid From Lesser Spirits 238 31.08 57.98% -0.798 0.98 0.015
All Things Weaken 268 30.6 51.87% -1.22 0.8288 -0.383
Back Against the Wall 242 30.4 54.96% -0.659 1.2803 -0.751
Disintegrating Ecosystem 255 28.25 51.37% -1.818 0.3097 -0.62
Downward Spiral 313 28.17 50.16% -1.683 0.2781 -0.767
Erosion of Will 276 27.51 43.12% -1.727 0.3542 -1.04
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 91 35.69 83.52% 0.483 0.9849 0.515
Memory Fades to Dust 306 28.54 55.56% -1.247 0.8937 -0.034
Power Corrodes the Spirit 238 27.14 54.62% -1.808 0.1731 -0.606
Promising Farmlands 256 28.03 48.44% -1.927 0.0945 -0.769
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 71 33.87 83.1% 0.01 0.5069 -0.501
Thriving Communities 246 26.99 47.56% -1.688 0.3717 -1.135
Unnatural Proliferation 314 29.05 52.87% -1.562 0.3949 -0.923
Untended Land Crumbles 264 27.48 48.48% -1.533 0.5003 -0.971

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1850 43.35% 34.47 77.19% 0.248 0.9845 0.266
B 1855 45.05% 34.32 75.9% 0.23 0.9274 0.162
C 2128 46.12% 34.16 75.75% 0.406 0.8756 0.399
D 1580 44.71% 33.79 74.3% 0.052 0.761 0.075
E 1753 45.55% 35.15 74.16% 0.196 0.7404 -0.02
F 1605 44.72% 35.51 77.57% 0.238 0.8994 -0.253
G 1341 44.42% 34.35 74.27% -0.027 0.6037 -0.389
H 1415 45.87% 33.84 75.83% 0.37 1.0345 -0.256
East 244 44.26% 44.55 73.36% -0.072 0.5897 -0.22
Northeast 165 42.42% 45.91 74.55% 0.202 0.8614 -0.068
Northwest 175 42.29% 45.21 70.29% -0.974 -0.3633 -0.798
Southeast 147 40.82% 48.18 78.91% -0.595 -0.0642 0.617
Southwest 131 43.51% 46.41 77.86% -0.781 0.187 -0.197
West 246 45.12% 42.35 70.73% 0.584 1.3892 0.661

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 43 0.0% 18.74 65.12% -2.844 -0.6153 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 67 53.03% 21.63 77.61% 0.448 0.6742 0.787
Skip Initial Invader Actions 297 15.02% 52.15 91.58% 1.409 0.4291 1.625
Start of Game Growth 381 19.05% 48.69 90.29% 0.151 -0.3062 -0.122
Unlimited Undo 829 36.89% 41.0 80.34% 0.365 -0.1867 1.305
Using Tokens but Not Events 627 30.26% 30.01 82.78% 0.368 0.5232 0.548

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Circuitous and Wending Journey 77.78%
Aid From the Spirit-Speakers 84.43%
Offer Passage Between Worlds 86.56%
Paths Tied by Nature 75.11%
Traveler's Boon 67.99%
Ways of Shore and Heartland 73.8%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1625 22.65 25.85%
II 2901 31.08 76.39%
III 2117 34.66 90.55%
IV 646 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 417
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1858
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2165
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 628
Lose: Invader deck ran out 141
Lose: Adversary condition 527
Win: Sacrifice victory 87
Lose: Scenario condition 64
Win: Scenario condition 44
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1165
Lose: Spirit destroyed 193

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.698 Win Model: 0.105
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3113 60.95% 26.45 62.29%
2 2466 46.28% 34.73 75.43%
3 932 39.53% 36.23 80.58%
4 461 34.73% 37.29 82.21%
5 51 41.18% 35.63 80.39%
6 266 29.7% 51.91 86.09%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)