Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 20 40.0% 26.45 70.0% -0.596 -0.7978 -0.673
Blitz 0 3 66.67% 34.33 33.33% -0.829 -0.5715 -0.515
Dahan Insurrection 4 18 27.78% 54.5 94.44% 0.571 0.9838 0.792
Despicable Theft 2 14 50.0% 27.71 64.29% -0.538 -0.0916 -0.449
Elemental Invocation 1 5 60.0% 28.0 80.0% 0.6 1.0855 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 176 12.57% 44.73 82.39% -0.36 -0.0544 -0.733
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 26.0 75.0% 0.107 0.2887 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 12 41.67% 42.58 66.67% -0.918 -0.7964 -0.467
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 80.0% 36.0 20.0% -0.796 -0.3807 -0.33
Second Wave 0 56 40.0% 28.95 73.21% -0.882 -0.3158 -0.264
The Great River 3 9 77.78% 33.56 66.67% -0.959 0.4391 -0.512
Varied Terrains 2 35 68.57% 29.31 60.0% -0.434 0.0924 0.084
Ward the Shores 2 13 15.38% 33.62 92.31% 0.329 1.4911 0.0

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 152 27.81 50.0% -1.994 -0.0914 -1.075
Aid From Lesser Spirits 129 28.57 55.81% -1.831 -0.1013 0.227
All Things Weaken 159 29.26 47.8% -2.178 -0.1921 -0.83
Back Against the Wall 138 28.8 49.28% -2.216 -0.3993 -0.951
Disintegrating Ecosystem 138 27.24 53.62% -1.972 0.0787 -0.793
Downward Spiral 175 25.31 49.71% -2.164 -0.1712 -1.065
Erosion of Will 161 25.23 39.75% -2.51 -0.427 -1.362
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 54 36.39 85.19% -0.243 0.1982 0.486
Memory Fades to Dust 190 28.44 56.84% -1.937 0.1476 -0.137
Power Corrodes the Spirit 153 25.44 58.17% -1.843 0.0954 -0.415
Promising Farmlands 146 27.0 52.05% -2.018 0.028 -0.885
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 33.28 82.61% -0.486 -0.0614 -0.286
Thriving Communities 145 26.15 51.03% -2.034 -0.05 -1.201
Unnatural Proliferation 177 28.04 52.54% -1.966 -0.0014 -1.336
Untended Land Crumbles 152 25.89 48.03% -2.171 -0.1775 -1.129

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1050 45.12% 33.6 77.24% 0.193 0.9906 0.148
B 1045 45.02% 34.38 79.14% 0.29 1.0331 -0.053
C 1199 45.23% 33.09 76.48% 0.149 0.7179 -0.112
D 867 47.04% 32.44 73.47% 0.173 0.9689 -0.027
E 1013 47.04% 34.11 74.63% 0.112 0.7589 0.052
F 887 45.88% 34.45 80.72% 0.364 1.0879 0.134
G 738 45.45% 32.49 75.61% -0.248 0.4838 -0.362
H 783 46.99% 32.04 75.86% 0.077 0.7899 -0.422
East 105 56.19% 39.75 78.1% -1.113 -0.3447 -0.299
Northeast 71 54.93% 41.97 83.1% 0.44 1.2998 0.28
Northwest 73 50.68% 41.36 72.6% -0.293 0.784 0.062
Southeast 62 50.0% 45.6 85.48% 0.239 0.9454 0.434
Southwest 57 50.88% 42.88 84.21% 0.266 1.3918 0.0
West 108 50.93% 38.02 72.22% -0.554 0.4001 0.178

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 19.71 80.95% -1.51 0.6189 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 47 48.94% 18.32 80.85% 0.499 0.6741 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 131 7.69% 50.53 93.13% 0.03 -0.1125 0.419
Start of Game Growth 198 15.22% 45.08 94.44% 1.481 0.7201 0.419
Unlimited Undo 478 37.9% 40.73 78.87% 0.246 -0.3576 1.382
Using Tokens but Not Events 363 30.12% 28.17 85.12% 0.274 0.1173 0.819

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Circuitous and Wending Journey 77.63%
Aid From the Spirit-Speakers 83.71%
Offer Passage Between Worlds 86.05%
Paths Tied by Nature 74.58%
Traveler's Boon 67.19%
Ways of Shore and Heartland 73.59%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 889 22.56 25.87%
II 1705 30.98 76.89%
III 1262 34.53 90.97%
IV 377 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 230
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1109
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1281
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 363
Lose: Invader deck ran out 87
Lose: Adversary condition 264
Win: Sacrifice victory 54
Lose: Scenario condition 25
Win: Scenario condition 29
Lose: Blight pool ran out 682
Lose: Spirit destroyed 109

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.881 Win Model: 0.259
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1883 58.86% 25.2 63.62%
2 1498 45.81% 34.47 76.9%
3 518 39.46% 34.64 81.47%
4 214 38.97% 36.5 86.45%
5 18 55.56% 36.67 83.33%
6 102 33.33% 53.34 92.16%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)