Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 34 35.29% 26.09 70.59% 0.084 -0.3624 -0.739
Blitz 0 25 29.17% 49.92 80.0% -0.717 -0.2598 -0.691
Dahan Insurrection 4 42 36.59% 51.48 76.19% 0.354 0.3741 0.221
Despicable Theft 2 30 43.33% 30.0 73.33% 0.395 0.9076 -0.455
Elemental Invocation 1 19 47.37% 32.53 73.68% 0.033 0.7325 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 421 14.63% 48.99 80.29% 0.205 0.2462 -0.498
Powers Long Forgotten 1 14 71.43% 30.64 64.29% -0.195 0.3672 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 24 45.83% 48.29 75.0% -0.367 -0.6548 -0.549
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 12 75.0% 31.67 50.0% 0.491 0.9217 -0.382
Second Wave 0 168 34.13% 29.29 77.38% -0.173 0.2885 -0.996
The Great River 3 15 53.33% 38.0 66.67% 0.169 1.9356 -0.508
Varied Terrains 2 47 65.96% 29.21 57.45% -0.482 0.3459 0.175
Ward the Shores 2 31 45.16% 32.0 67.74% -0.494 0.2501 -0.265

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3344 61.58% 25.97 61.24% -0.182 0.3678 -0.238
1 Thematic 95 60.0% 34.95 66.32% -0.715 0.2828 -0.362
2 Archipelago 28 32.14% 51.18 92.86% 0.405 1.0221 0.578
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1654 48.9% 35.29 73.82% -0.185 0.2247 0.212
2 Coastline 380 37.99% 34.45 78.95% -0.214 -0.078 0.495
2 Fragment 39 58.97% 30.97 71.79% 0.677 0.6723 0.178
2 Heart 27 70.37% 25.85 55.56% -0.654 -0.1795 -0.797
2 Opposite Shores 510 41.26% 30.71 75.88% 0.058 0.4119 -0.769
2 Thematic 78 48.72% 35.18 69.23% 1.113 2.0426 1.378
2 Top to Top 103 44.12% 39.12 75.73% -0.458 -0.3311 0.479
3 Archipelago 16 31.25% 47.13 87.5% 0.303 0.4818 -0.286
3 Coastline 16 37.5% 32.94 81.25% 0.053 -0.3633 0.123
3 Other 22 59.09% 33.64 72.73% 0.814 0.0952 0.702
3 Round (Default) 972 40.52% 35.81 78.6% -0.298 -0.1046 -0.189
3 Sunrise 2 50.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 35 34.29% 48.8 91.43% 0.194 0.2095 1.19
4 Archipelago 14 35.71% 57.64 100.0% 0.625 0.206 0.457
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.153 0.0802 0.309
4 Leaf 3 0.0% 33.33 100.0% 0.027 -0.0692 0.0
4 Other 26 34.62% 31.58 92.31% 0.59 -0.0262 0.299
4 Thematic 41 39.02% 40.34 58.54% -0.982 -0.6997 -1.005
4 Trapezoid (Default) 441 34.8% 36.45 82.31% -0.847 -0.6589 -0.304
5 Archipelago 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0% 0.232 -0.1522 0.088
5 Coastline 3 33.33% 34.0 100.0% 0.051 0.158 0.0
5 Other 61 34.43% 32.85 81.97% -0.338 -0.9685 -0.425
5 Thematic 11 63.64% 50.45 81.82% 0.383 -0.591 -0.143
6 Archipelago 22 13.64% 61.68 86.36% -0.946 -1.0161 0.122
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.9494 -0.595
6 Other 63 25.4% 38.14 84.13% 0.512 0.2698 -2.221
6 Star 14 42.86% 39.07 85.71% 0.029 0.5751 0.342
6 Thematic 110 46.23% 50.42 77.27% -1.401 -1.3554 -0.988
6 Two Centers (Default) 116 24.14% 55.54 94.83% -0.035 0.4285 -0.036
7 Archipelago 4 50.0% 83.25 75.0% 0.076 -0.1448 -0.4
7 Other 5 40.0% 28.6 100.0% 0.105 -0.2553 0.019

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 303 29.16 47.52% -1.463 0.2676 -0.976
Aid From Lesser Spirits 266 30.69 57.89% -0.832 0.7439 0.017
All Things Weaken 292 30.29 49.66% -1.554 0.3234 -0.401
Back Against the Wall 285 31.6 56.84% -0.677 0.9601 -0.692
Disintegrating Ecosystem 289 28.33 50.87% -1.505 0.3374 -0.795
Downward Spiral 348 28.09 50.57% -1.44 0.2584 -0.633
Erosion of Will 326 27.7 42.64% -1.754 0.1464 -0.866
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 106 35.63 82.08% -0.483 0.0173 0.437
Memory Fades to Dust 344 28.35 55.81% -1.046 0.8303 -0.104
Power Corrodes the Spirit 269 27.54 55.76% -0.667 1.0381 -0.536
Promising Farmlands 283 28.41 48.41% -0.845 1.0311 -0.617
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 45.75 100.0% 0.401 1.5564 0.389
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 62.0 100.0% 0.064 1.5353 0.149
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 81 34.43 83.95% 0.172 0.3822 -0.348
The Border of Life and Death 1 14.0 100.0% 0.298 0.0375 0.0
Thriving Communities 290 26.71 45.17% -1.915 -0.0444 -1.255
Unnatural Proliferation 355 29.46 53.24% -1.302 0.4518 -0.845
Untended Land Crumbles 305 27.53 48.52% -1.483 0.3316 -0.921

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2142 43.71% 34.39 76.52% 0.165 0.9423 0.194
B 2120 44.89% 34.28 75.24% 0.057 0.7602 0.179
C 2418 46.36% 34.17 75.06% 0.296 0.8233 0.404
D 1839 44.1% 33.53 73.95% -0.009 0.7263 0.118
E 1984 45.36% 35.14 74.09% 0.0 0.5844 -0.048
F 1813 45.14% 35.4 76.56% 0.298 1.0052 -0.317
G 1540 43.76% 34.46 74.55% 0.284 0.9256 -0.483
H 1608 45.26% 33.79 75.25% 0.388 1.033 -0.14
East 306 47.35% 43.74 73.86% -0.534 0.0579 -0.402
Northeast 211 45.41% 45.92 76.3% 0.713 1.3901 -0.033
Northwest 218 45.79% 45.52 72.48% -0.518 -0.0804 -0.595
Southeast 181 45.76% 47.24 78.45% -0.015 0.6489 0.736
Southwest 163 49.06% 45.96 77.3% -0.907 0.2648 -0.195
West 293 47.4% 42.85 72.7% -0.148 0.67 0.558

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 62 0.0% 15.97 53.23% -2.77 -0.6941 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 82 52.5% 21.12 76.83% 0.203 0.375 0.761
Skip Initial Invader Actions 334 17.05% 52.2 90.72% 0.577 -0.482 1.521
Start of Game Growth 428 20.4% 48.36 89.49% 0.914 0.4921 -0.101
Unlimited Undo 947 37.91% 40.24 79.73% 0.477 0.0615 1.031
Using Tokens but Not Events 737 31.76% 29.58 79.51% -0.28 -0.1641 0.835

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 463 100.0% 43.93 100.0% 0.444 0.2646 0.874
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 152 100.0% 35.68 100.0% -0.102 -0.0879 -0.829
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 136 100.0% 32.45 100.0% 0.605 0.3591 0.098
Downpour Drenches the World 816 100.0% 36.12 100.0% -0.279 0.1081 0.167
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 20 100.0% 25.5 100.0% -0.461 -0.2257 0.264
Eyes Watch From the Trees 189 100.0% 31.93 100.0% 0.444 -0.0295 -0.131
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 137 100.0% 33.23 100.0% -0.292 -0.739 -0.843
Fractured Days Split the Sky 222 100.0% 54.52 100.0% 0.636 0.7394 0.951
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 122 100.0% 38.61 100.0% 0.077 0.0126 -0.103
Heart of the Wildfire 209 100.0% 34.54 100.0% -0.399 -0.1396 -0.4
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 646 100.0% 36.45 100.0% 0.852 0.2685 0.36
Lightning's Swift Strike 98 257.0% 30.15 152.04% -0.033 0.235 -1.157
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 191 47.62% 41.73 82.72% 0.598 -0.2159 0.24
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 28 42.86% 34.07 85.71% -1.201 -1.7437 0.035
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 76 44.74% 47.61 81.58% 0.735 0.2576 0.174
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 448 100.0% 38.83 100.0% 0.767 0.6459 0.417
Many Minds Move as One 160 100.0% 42.27 100.0% 0.136 -0.4874 0.892
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 683 100.0% 38.53 100.0% -0.174 -0.3015 -0.197
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 216 100.0% 38.52 100.0% -0.216 -0.2994 -0.388
River Surges in Sunlight 135 226.47% 35.75 149.63% 0.076 -0.1164 0.885
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 39 25.64% 35.72 79.49% -1.254 -0.9661 -0.745
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 254 43.48% 43.04 76.77% -0.16 -0.5228 0.242
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 281 100.0% 43.35 100.0% -0.335 -0.5079 -0.35
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 11 845.45% 24.73 327.27% -0.616 -0.2231 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 49 42.86% 30.84 81.63% -0.586 -0.4894 0.512
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 66 43.94% 38.42 84.85% 0.501 0.5758 0.187
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 11 27.27% 25.18 72.73% -0.506 -0.5425 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 15 40.0% 29.47 80.0% -0.609 -0.6051 0.401
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 158 100.0% 39.84 100.0% 0.222 0.0222 0.035
Shifting Memory of Ages 165 100.0% 41.5 100.0% 0.014 0.2428 -0.469
Shroud of Silent Mist 109 100.0% 34.68 100.0% -0.06 0.1241 -0.078
Starlight Seeks its Form 398 100.0% 47.18 100.0% 0.746 0.5897 1.081
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 427 100.0% 39.29 100.0% 0.647 0.3841 0.131
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 125 100.0% 35.37 100.0% 0.14 0.2025 -0.064
Thunderspeaker 256 100.0% 37.82 100.0% 0.759 0.6823 -0.002
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 167 100.0% 34.33 100.0% -0.664 -0.9258 -0.049
Vital Strength of the Earth 45 291.3% 30.84 202.22% -0.842 -0.0885 -0.038
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 142 48.94% 36.17 73.24% 0.326 0.9038 -0.512
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 28 42.86% 29.75 71.43% 0.214 1.3636 -0.893
Volcano Looming High 559 100.0% 37.18 100.0% 0.063 0.0597 -0.312

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Circuitous and Wending Journey 78.08%
Aid From the Spirit-Speakers 84.33%
Offer Passage Between Worlds 86.36%
Paths Tied by Nature 75.49%
Traveler's Boon 68.47%
Ways of Shore and Heartland 74.07%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1876 22.63 25.21%
II 3254 31.12 75.66%
III 2412 34.7 90.8%
IV 738 37.97 99.86%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 470
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2402
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 718
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 44
Lose: Invader deck ran out 162
Lose: Adversary condition 603
Win: Sacrifice victory 94
Lose: Scenario condition 67
Win: Scenario condition 53
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1328
Lose: Spirit destroyed 214

Difficulty

Score Model: 3.038 Win Model: -0.093

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.734 Win Model: 0.281
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3483 61.67% 26.2 61.5%
2 2811 45.92% 34.62 74.92%
3 1050 40.17% 36.26 79.52%
4 536 34.22% 36.74 81.53%
5 67 41.79% 37.52 80.6%
6 333 32.22% 50.96 86.49%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)