Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 42 33.33% 25.81 69.05% 0.66 0.5819 -1.032
Blitz 0 29 25.0% 43.03 68.97% -0.374 -0.2278 -0.819
Dahan Insurrection 4 54 33.96% 48.22 72.22% 0.821 0.614 0.276
Despicable Theft 2 46 39.13% 23.39 58.7% 0.096 0.7783 -0.497
Elemental Invocation 1 22 45.45% 30.09 68.18% -0.477 0.2544 -0.509
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 522 14.86% 46.55 76.63% 1.263 0.6564 0.296
Powers Long Forgotten 1 29 48.28% 17.55 34.48% -1.495 -1.007 -1.011
Rituals of Terror 3 29 44.83% 41.62 65.52% -0.753 -0.6483 -0.462
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 19 47.37% 20.0 31.58% -1.179 -0.1874 -1.408
Second Wave 0 214 34.74% 27.94 74.77% 0.649 0.7112 -0.807
The Great River 3 19 63.16% 33.16 52.63% -0.934 0.4146 -0.552
Varied Terrains 2 62 56.45% 28.27 54.84% 0.248 0.8105 -0.497
Ward the Shores 2 38 44.74% 30.71 65.79% 0.1 1.3095 -0.322

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4383 57.89% 22.54 52.59% -0.62 -0.4108 -0.204
1 Thematic 110 54.55% 32.88 61.82% -0.056 0.543 -0.289
2 Archipelago 38 31.58% 43.82 78.95% -0.063 0.2942 0.84
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2108 45.46% 32.06 68.26% 0.279 0.4387 0.173
2 Coastline 471 38.03% 31.06 72.4% -0.089 -0.0278 0.376
2 Fragment 57 64.91% 28.77 59.65% 0.309 0.2451 0.595
2 Heart 38 63.16% 25.79 57.89% 0.509 0.2715 -0.327
2 Opposite Shores 740 35.99% 28.46 69.86% 0.325 0.4582 -0.862
2 Thematic 105 40.0% 30.17 60.95% 0.345 0.9808 1.173
2 Top to Top 121 40.34% 36.43 71.07% -0.247 -0.2066 0.526
3 Archipelago 25 40.0% 47.96 88.0% 0.905 -0.182 0.065
3 Coastline 20 45.0% 31.05 70.0% 0.35 -0.1475 0.371
3 Other 29 57.14% 25.66 55.17% -0.42 -0.3107 0.919
3 Round (Default) 1234 39.9% 33.14 72.53% -0.003 -0.0441 -0.53
3 Sunrise 2 50.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.0 0.1962 0.0
3 Thematic 38 31.58% 45.87 86.84% -0.107 -0.0713 1.071
4 Archipelago 30 43.33% 51.4 83.33% 0.649 0.4341 0.767
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.184 0.3064 0.456
4 Leaf 3 0.0% 33.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.3753 0.0
4 Other 34 35.29% 26.76 82.35% 0.626 -0.2238 -0.28
4 Thematic 54 38.89% 35.93 51.85% -0.49 -0.5074 -0.779
4 Trapezoid (Default) 582 34.27% 32.52 72.68% -0.678 -0.8646 -0.581
5 Archipelago 8 25.0% 47.13 75.0% 0.054 -1.1718 -0.566
5 Coastline 3 33.33% 34.0 100.0% 0.669 0.6263 0.369
5 Other 91 34.07% 29.01 76.92% -0.275 -0.7833 -0.392
5 Thematic 17 41.18% 37.12 58.82% -0.626 -0.9557 -0.307
6 Archipelago 37 13.51% 57.86 78.38% -0.779 -1.0836 -1.314
6 Coastline 4 25.0% 43.0 75.0% 0.304 -0.3393 -0.464
6 Other 71 28.17% 39.58 83.1% 0.131 -0.263 -1.948
6 Star 20 35.0% 39.8 85.0% 0.155 0.6305 0.416
6 Thematic 184 51.14% 43.58 66.85% -1.062 -0.6627 -0.734
6 Two Centers (Default) 171 22.22% 43.9 78.95% -1.143 -1.0992 -0.585
7 Archipelago 6 33.33% 55.5 50.0% -0.329 -0.9178 -0.155
7 Other 9 33.33% 20.0 66.67% -0.211 -0.984 -0.467

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 358 28.75 46.65% 0.12 0.3912 -0.469
Aid From Lesser Spirits 309 30.85 58.25% 1.013 1.0515 0.366
All Things Weaken 344 28.41 47.09% -0.155 0.3052 -0.155
Attenuated Essence 42 25.33 50.0% 0.372 0.5774 -0.966
Back Against the Wall 331 31.29 57.1% 0.919 1.0807 -0.047
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 37 19.78 32.43% -0.151 0.2634 -0.665
Burn Brightest Before the End 25 30.84 48.0% 0.367 0.6721 0.1
Disintegrating Ecosystem 337 27.08 48.66% -0.031 0.4953 -0.308
Downward Spiral 400 27.11 47.75% -0.262 0.091 -0.248
Erosion of Will 379 27.28 43.27% 0.453 0.861 -0.409
Intensifying Exploitation 38 25.66 39.47% 0.165 0.5519 0.047
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 123 34.2 78.86% 0.627 0.1018 0.663
Memory Fades to Dust 417 26.22 50.36% -0.173 0.3081 0.124
Power Corrodes the Spirit 328 25.91 50.0% -0.078 0.2264 -0.536
Promising Farmlands 321 27.64 47.66% -0.047 0.5391 -0.262
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 22.97 34.21% -0.112 0.0671 -0.253
Slow Dissolution of Will 40 21.98 30.0% -0.461 0.0732 -0.597
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 98 34.3 82.65% 1.543 0.8653 0.233
The Border of Life and Death 14 28.93 50.0% 0.36 0.2309 0.596
Thriving Communities 356 25.71 43.54% 0.076 0.569 -0.734
Thriving Crops 27 20.52 48.15% 0.199 0.2874 -0.339
Unnatural Proliferation 406 29.04 52.22% 0.636 0.9328 -0.379
Untended Land Crumbles 370 26.47 46.76% 0.24 0.5982 -0.482

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2823 41.49% 31.16 68.93% 0.377 1.2166 0.201
B 2803 42.76% 31.12 68.36% 0.365 1.1441 0.091
C 3160 44.39% 31.05 67.82% 0.163 0.8166 0.377
D 2461 42.38% 29.99 66.27% 0.281 1.0801 -0.011
E 2626 41.87% 31.53 67.44% 0.325 0.954 -0.061
F 2380 42.67% 31.92 69.03% 0.068 0.7874 -0.279
G 2017 40.91% 31.17 67.33% 0.282 1.0239 -0.364
H 2125 43.07% 30.34 66.87% 0.104 0.7525 -0.121
East 431 45.63% 38.92 65.2% -0.147 0.4573 -0.14
Northeast 308 46.33% 40.46 66.23% -0.199 0.682 0.524
Northwest 314 46.73% 40.63 64.33% -0.177 0.4959 -0.736
Southeast 278 46.3% 41.08 67.63% -0.518 0.1183 0.142
Southwest 257 49.8% 40.03 66.54% -0.505 0.6594 0.276
West 416 46.08% 38.17 64.18% -0.45 0.5139 0.071

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 80 0.0% 12.59 42.5% -1.611 -0.7278 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 113 50.0% 18.1 65.49% 0.6 0.9319 0.83
Skip Initial Invader Actions 374 16.18% 48.44 85.29% 0.481 -0.0537 1.387
Start of Game Growth 478 19.23% 45.17 84.31% 0.472 0.1422 0.018
Unlimited Undo 1230 36.07% 34.67 69.92% -0.131 -0.1531 0.643
Using Tokens but Not Events 1067 29.38% 26.11 70.67% 0.289 0.2346 0.5

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 598 100.0% 40.74 100.0% 0.016 -0.1435 0.751
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 191 100.0% 31.08 100.0% -0.127 -0.0052 -0.449
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 190 100.0% 28.62 100.0% -0.541 -0.7088 0.111
Downpour Drenches the World 954 100.0% 33.79 100.0% -0.188 -0.009 0.322
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 386 100.0% 26.32 100.0% 0.137 -0.5848 -0.799
Eyes Watch From the Trees 244 100.0% 29.59 100.0% 0.292 -0.2965 -0.023
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 190 100.0% 30.53 100.0% 0.13 -0.3411 -0.508
Fractured Days Split the Sky 325 100.0% 45.89 100.0% -0.388 0.2963 0.57
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 181 100.0% 34.13 100.0% -0.022 -0.1228 0.153
Heart of the Wildfire 271 100.0% 30.65 100.0% -0.208 0.0366 -0.068
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 808 100.0% 35.26 100.0% 0.538 0.0881 0.458
Lightning's Swift Strike 123 276.38% 25.98 178.05% -0.263 -0.0595 -0.865
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 245 43.15% 39.27 79.18% 0.645 -0.0521 0.654
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 42 40.48% 28.52 69.05% -0.499 -0.7389 0.134
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 108 42.59% 41.57 70.37% 0.061 -0.0987 0.227
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 585 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 0.041 -0.1037 0.037
Many Minds Move as One 213 100.0% 38.13 100.0% 0.998 0.7766 0.958
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 858 100.0% 33.65 100.0% -0.256 -0.2648 -0.009
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 274 100.0% 36.64 100.0% 0.368 0.2258 0.129
River Surges in Sunlight 174 226.14% 33.08 160.92% -0.144 -0.1411 0.207
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 54 26.42% 29.17 66.67% -0.535 -0.2648 -0.804
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 313 41.35% 39.9 71.88% 0.185 0.0555 0.28
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 362 100.0% 39.33 100.0% -0.118 -0.3317 -0.482
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 18 647.37% 26.0 350.0% 0.292 0.7277 -0.572
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 58 41.38% 29.43 77.59% 0.121 0.1202 0.423
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 78 42.86% 35.99 79.49% 0.108 0.0999 0.168
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 16 25.0% 21.5 62.5% -0.192 -0.2638 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 23 39.13% 22.22 56.52% -0.759 -0.7005 0.189
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 232 109.48% 36.58 105.17% 0.018 -0.1109 -0.664
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 33 33.33% 29.67 63.64% 0.364 0.0013 -0.345
Shifting Memory of Ages 257 100.0% 35.33 100.0% -0.264 0.143 -0.512
Shroud of Silent Mist 150 100.0% 29.59 100.0% -0.547 -0.2321 -0.118
Starlight Seeks its Form 530 100.0% 43.67 100.0% 0.567 0.294 0.901
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 538 100.0% 36.55 100.0% 0.112 -0.3832 0.213
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 163 100.0% 33.53 100.0% 0.464 0.4944 0.188
Thunderspeaker 302 108.25% 34.97 105.63% 0.267 0.248 0.051
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 35 26.47% 23.86 51.43% 0.027 -0.0358 0.408
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 243 100.0% 32.19 100.0% -0.46 -0.399 -0.196
Vital Strength of the Earth 70 258.33% 25.29 194.29% -0.101 0.4519 0.187
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 172 47.65% 34.68 70.93% 0.078 0.3342 -0.219
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 40 37.5% 25.6 60.0% 0.01 0.9069 -0.757
Volcano Looming High 726 100.0% 34.59 100.0% 0.047 0.0571 0.033

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Circuitous and Wending Journey 79.7%
Aid From the Spirit-Speakers 85.03%
Offer Passage Between Worlds 87.3%
Paths Tied by Nature 77.5%
Traveler's Boon 71.41%
Ways of Shore and Heartland 75.79%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3263 21.03 16.64%
II 3881 31.04 74.41%
III 2870 34.74 90.59%
IV 850 38.02 99.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 540
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2527
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2817
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 828
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1181
Lose: Invader deck ran out 193
Lose: Adversary condition 735
Win: Sacrifice victory 104
Lose: Scenario condition 75
Win: Scenario condition 64
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1551
Lose: Spirit destroyed 249

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.904 Win Model: -0.054

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.643 Win Model: 0.244
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4552 57.91% 22.81 52.97%
2 3663 42.47% 31.43 68.99%
3 1335 39.83% 33.46 72.96%
4 716 34.28% 33.17 72.49%
5 98 37.76% 33.0 74.49%
6 500 33.94% 44.29 75.2%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)