Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 25 40.0% 26.28 68.0% -0.56 -0.1199 -0.591
Blitz 0 8 57.14% 27.63 75.0% 0.588 0.8436 -0.525
Dahan Insurrection 4 26 34.62% 52.08 84.62% -0.183 0.1194 0.738
Despicable Theft 2 23 47.83% 27.43 69.57% -0.021 0.5239 -0.582
Elemental Invocation 1 13 46.15% 33.38 76.92% 0.329 0.9401 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 272 13.7% 46.88 80.51% -0.155 0.0386 -0.416
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 75.0% 29.63 75.0% -0.006 0.2397 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 20 55.0% 46.2 75.0% 0.528 -0.3085 -0.142
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 88.89% 29.56 33.33% -0.223 0.3024 -0.296
Second Wave 0 108 37.38% 28.28 75.0% -0.379 0.1931 -0.87
The Great River 3 12 66.67% 30.83 58.33% -1.123 0.5162 -0.557
Varied Terrains 2 40 70.0% 28.77 60.0% -0.38 0.3655 0.052
Ward the Shores 2 19 26.32% 31.95 78.95% -0.756 0.2984 0.272

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2640 60.25% 25.89 61.93% -0.538 -0.092 -0.377
1 Thematic 45 64.44% 31.8 64.44% 0.856 1.4881 -0.451
2 Archipelago 13 30.77% 43.15 100.0% 0.116 0.1286 0.282
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1208 50.33% 36.17 75.17% -0.18 0.1644 0.169
2 Coastline 285 41.05% 34.99 80.35% 0.076 0.1592 0.559
2 Fragment 27 59.26% 30.41 66.67% 0.647 0.7352 0.13
2 Heart 20 65.0% 25.3 60.0% -0.862 -0.25 -0.633
2 Opposite Shores 383 37.17% 28.16 77.28% -0.435 -0.0567 -1.257
2 Thematic 51 56.86% 33.2 58.82% -0.753 -0.2354 1.146
2 Top to Top 71 44.29% 40.41 78.87% 0.256 0.3947 0.619
3 Archipelago 10 40.0% 37.4 90.0% 0.298 -0.6791 0.0
3 Coastline 14 42.86% 26.36 78.57% 0.008 -0.6406 0.108
3 Other 18 61.11% 34.56 66.67% 0.302 -0.7689 0.583
3 Round (Default) 725 38.95% 34.7 80.28% 0.132 0.3243 -0.156
3 Sunrise 2 50.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.0 0.3199 0.0
3 Thematic 31 38.71% 48.74 90.32% 1.201 0.9559 1.187
4 Archipelago 8 25.0% 52.63 100.0% 1.0 0.5981 0.356
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.062 0.2601 0.35
4 Leaf 2 0.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.169 0.6601 0.0
4 Other 18 44.44% 27.83 88.89% 0.233 -0.3077 -0.022
4 Thematic 17 47.06% 32.59 64.71% -0.141 -0.1355 0.012
4 Trapezoid (Default) 294 37.54% 38.01 84.69% -0.125 -0.2657 -0.128
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.063 -0.2537 0.01
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2575 0.0
5 Other 31 35.48% 27.52 77.42% -0.306 -0.4817 -0.168
5 Thematic 5 40.0% 47.0 60.0% -0.557 -0.5911 -0.246
6 Archipelago 3 0.0% 64.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7508 0.017
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 41.0 50.0% 0.042 -0.6659 -0.662
6 Other 38 26.32% 38.13 73.68% -0.999 -0.3025 -1.981
6 Star 9 55.56% 38.78 77.78% -0.548 -0.0157 0.516
6 Thematic 61 31.15% 50.38 78.69% -1.241 -0.742 -1.47
6 Two Centers (Default) 78 26.92% 57.76 93.59% -0.161 0.065 -0.015
7 Archipelago 2 100.0% 100.0 50.0% 0.102 -0.6327 -0.278
7 Other 5 40.0% 28.6 100.0% 0.382 -0.3894 0.014

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 233 28.38 49.79% -1.445 0.4649 -0.754
Aid From Lesser Spirits 196 30.42 56.12% -1.298 0.3865 -0.046
All Things Weaken 226 29.57 50.44% -1.339 0.6611 -0.415
Back Against the Wall 210 29.42 53.33% -1.196 0.7518 -0.709
Disintegrating Ecosystem 207 27.07 50.24% -1.653 0.4125 -0.757
Downward Spiral 265 27.94 50.94% -1.33 0.6328 -0.859
Erosion of Will 232 27.13 43.1% -1.71 0.397 -1.052
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 75 34.89 81.33% -0.402 0.214 0.442
Memory Fades to Dust 272 28.61 55.51% -1.342 0.7155 0.104
Power Corrodes the Spirit 212 26.22 54.25% -1.761 0.218 -0.72
Promising Farmlands 207 27.47 48.31% -1.899 0.2027 -0.889
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 62 32.08 82.26% 0.006 0.3355 -0.423
Thriving Communities 210 26.91 47.62% -1.919 0.1301 -1.147
Unnatural Proliferation 269 28.85 53.9% -1.244 0.7 -1.112
Untended Land Crumbles 217 26.61 47.93% -1.533 0.4939 -0.919

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1543 44.37% 33.78 76.67% 0.24 0.9992 0.275
B 1553 45.59% 34.25 77.08% 0.145 0.8217 0.109
C 1751 45.76% 33.46 75.73% 0.35 0.8749 0.292
D 1301 45.86% 33.25 73.56% 0.101 0.8274 0.112
E 1465 45.83% 34.68 73.99% -0.066 0.4944 -0.025
F 1324 46.44% 34.71 77.19% 0.133 0.8228 -0.286
G 1092 46.56% 33.08 73.72% -0.087 0.6084 -0.334
H 1179 47.06% 32.76 74.81% -0.12 0.5405 -0.337
East 172 44.77% 42.2 73.84% -0.49 0.1898 -0.139
Northeast 119 42.02% 43.28 74.79% 0.147 0.7169 -0.085
Northwest 126 39.68% 44.47 71.43% -0.094 0.7481 -0.041
Southeast 101 38.61% 46.14 79.21% -0.453 0.0731 0.499
Southwest 93 39.78% 45.24 78.49% 0.498 1.439 0.029
West 171 43.27% 41.31 71.35% -0.242 0.7582 -0.084

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 20.55 79.31% -0.606 1.5131 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 61 53.33% 21.34 77.05% -0.321 -0.0808 0.798
Skip Initial Invader Actions 183 10.37% 48.99 91.26% 0.997 0.6283 0.824
Start of Game Growth 264 17.14% 44.92 90.15% -0.661 -1.2835 -0.153
Unlimited Undo 659 38.47% 40.78 79.21% 0.565 -0.0655 1.251
Using Tokens but Not Events 526 31.33% 29.4 83.27% 0.075 0.1191 0.499

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 288 100.0% 42.67 100.0% 0.326 0.2781 0.513
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 96 100.0% 35.15 100.0% 0.072 0.1362 -0.264
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 95 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.252 -0.4902 0.138
Downpour Drenches the World 647 100.0% 35.15 100.0% -0.072 0.3192 0.362
Eyes Watch From the Trees 139 100.0% 30.9 100.0% 0.858 0.4429 -0.449
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 86 100.0% 32.71 100.0% -0.431 -1.0255 -0.479
Fractured Days Split the Sky 137 100.0% 56.21 100.0% 0.175 0.2173 0.669
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 77 100.0% 36.3 100.0% -0.512 -0.5285 -0.235
Heart of the Wildfire 131 100.0% 35.66 100.0% -0.229 0.0996 -0.648
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 447 100.0% 33.41 100.0% 0.161 -0.473 -0.056
Lightning's Swift Strike 65 268.18% 34.57 158.46% -1.037 -0.7636 -1.169
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 137 50.0% 39.54 81.02% 0.477 -0.3557 0.195
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 23 39.13% 33.35 95.65% 0.217 -0.3549 0.842
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 45 35.56% 44.96 75.56% 0.01 -0.4142 -0.08
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 335 100.0% 38.36 100.0% 0.009 -0.1976 0.505
Many Minds Move as One 93 100.0% 42.31 100.0% -0.02 -0.5323 0.29
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 473 100.0% 39.67 100.0% -0.263 -0.5455 -0.005
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 138 100.0% 36.17 100.0% -0.15 -0.1178 -0.446
River Surges in Sunlight 100 213.0% 35.93 136.0% 0.532 0.5382 0.818
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 23 26.09% 38.61 95.65% 0.937 1.3809 0.209
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 174 44.83% 43.74 79.89% 0.359 0.1161 0.483
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 181 100.0% 44.88 100.0% 0.236 0.0925 -0.172
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 4 1625.0% 32.5 525.0% -0.135 0.3672 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 40 45.0% 32.55 87.5% 0.688 0.8262 1.2
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 57 47.37% 36.58 82.46% 0.214 0.1367 0.071
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 5 20.0% 22.6 80.0% 0.0 -0.002 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 7 28.57% 32.0 85.71% 0.159 0.228 0.401
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 102 100.0% 38.74 100.0% 0.476 0.2145 -0.17
Shifting Memory of Ages 107 100.0% 39.67 100.0% -0.134 -0.112 -0.67
Shroud of Silent Mist 74 100.0% 32.47 100.0% 0.389 0.6342 -0.365
Starlight Seeks its Form 259 100.0% 46.73 100.0% 0.166 -0.0456 1.099
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 295 100.0% 38.61 100.0% -0.131 -0.3003 0.312
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 81 100.0% 36.22 100.0% -0.473 -0.3627 -0.354
Thunderspeaker 164 100.0% 36.78 100.0% -0.235 -0.33 -0.418
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 104 100.0% 32.82 100.0% 0.023 -0.074 0.141
Vital Strength of the Earth 35 297.14% 30.11 202.86% -0.222 0.6609 0.434
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 106 45.28% 36.28 71.7% -1.294 -0.8928 -0.91
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 20 45.0% 27.7 70.0% -0.466 0.5763 -0.8
Volcano Looming High 390 100.0% 35.43 100.0% -0.267 -0.2825 -0.647

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Circuitous and Wending Journey 77.08%
Aid From the Spirit-Speakers 83.97%
Offer Passage Between Worlds 86.12%
Paths Tied by Nature 75.13%
Traveler's Boon 67.36%
Ways of Shore and Heartland 73.51%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1368 22.62 25.22%
II 2431 31.05 76.47%
III 1778 34.62 90.33%
IV 558 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 343
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1560
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1813
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 541
Lose: Invader deck ran out 124
Lose: Adversary condition 442
Win: Sacrifice victory 74
Lose: Scenario condition 47
Win: Scenario condition 37
Lose: Blight pool ran out 992
Lose: Spirit destroyed 162

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.913 Win Model: -0.146

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.654 Win Model: 0.227
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2716 60.48% 26.0 62.19%
2 2058 46.64% 34.53 75.8%
3 786 38.85% 35.07 81.04%
4 346 37.68% 37.46 84.1%
5 33 42.42% 31.42 75.76%
6 196 29.08% 51.27 84.69%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)