Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
94054	33.68%	35.04	82.16%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	33417	16.44%	24.01	0.000	94.87%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	660	24.73%	32.44	0.038	92.12%	-0.29	-0.0066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	511	30.0%	35.98	0.021	87.87%	-0.6	-0.1888
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	595	53.03%	39.41	-0.025	76.81%	-1.263	-0.3867
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	657	56.86%	40.05	-0.06	68.95%	-1.597	-0.3509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	423	80.61%	40.88	-0.12	54.14%	-1.998	-0.4962
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	150	92.0%	38.07	-0.185	40.0%	-2.391	-0.438
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	761	88.96%	35.66	-0.25	27.6%	-3.172	-1.1295
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2962	17.99%	28.18	0.044	94.87%	-0.031	0.0107
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	2109	25.94%	32.65	0.043	93.6%	0.017	-0.0018

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	1079	35.66%	30.0	-0.031	77.11%	-0.755	-0.1853
Dahan Insurrection	4	1549	24.93%	55.15	-0.03	75.34%	-0.56	-0.1613
Despicable Theft	2	87	52.87%	42.91	-0.012	75.86%	0.09	0.3597
Elemental Invocation	1	115	45.22%	31.6	-0.02	77.39%	-0.489	-0.025
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	6876	11.07%	48.94	0.012	84.19%	-0.089	0.2772
Powers Long Forgotten	1	665	55.52%	33.25	-0.068	65.26%	-0.821	-0.3765
Rituals of Terror	3	490	37.15%	42.54	-0.028	77.76%	-0.687	-0.0423
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	312	64.19%	40.65	-0.04	71.79%	-0.604	0.0408
Second Wave	0	5470	29.6%	32.52	0.0	85.87%	-0.68	-0.2513
The Great River	3	217	42.13%	35.55	-0.06	72.81%	-1.614	-0.1501
Ward the Shores	2	708	38.77%	37.06	-0.062	69.92%	-1.158	-0.1241

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	51083	31.37%	35.39	0.01	84.12%	-0.919	-0.7463
1	Thematic	3261	38.15%	40.66	-0.02	75.38%	-0.96	-0.5985
2	Archipelago	13	30.77%	36.15	0.002	84.62%	-0.494	-0.2669
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	15480	38.61%	33.39	-0.005	80.83%	-0.474	-0.4227
2	Coastline	1913	38.53%	32.8	-0.004	80.82%	-0.552	-0.5447
2	Fragment	473	38.51%	31.82	-0.004	80.76%	-0.48	-0.2238
2	Heart	263	39.53%	30.1	-0.006	80.99%	-0.872	-0.7302
2	Opposite Shores	3018	32.04%	33.06	-0.009	80.95%	-0.716	-0.6258
2	Thematic	1354	46.92%	37.31	-0.052	66.99%	-0.802	-0.8431
2	Top to Top	423	39.37%	32.29	-0.019	77.54%	-0.84	-0.8704

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	2499	34.0	-0.111	59.62%	-1.8	0.2726
Aid From Lesser Spirits	2317	35.07	-0.105	60.64%	-1.747	0.1714
All Things Weaken	1070	32.16	-0.143	52.62%	-2.148	0.022
Back Against the Wall	2190	33.58	-0.127	56.16%	-1.965	0.126
Disintegrating Ecosystem	2432	30.76	-0.14	53.78%	-2.07	0.1545
Downward Spiral	4214	31.71	-0.101	64.29%	-1.864	0.1593
Erosion of Will	2517	32.74	-0.129	56.18%	-2.003	0.2059
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	498	37.27	-0.021	78.92%	-0.867	-0.1803
Memory Fades to Dust	4370	31.64	-0.117	60.98%	-2.001	0.2178
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1134	32.93	-0.118	57.5%	-1.888	0.1359
Promising Farmlands	2409	30.41	-0.146	52.72%	-2.166	0.0481
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	319	37.68	-0.005	82.45%	-0.642	-0.2327
Thriving Communities	1159	31.71	-0.125	56.17%	-1.94	0.1552
Tipping Point	992	33.38	-0.121	57.46%	-1.832	0.3943
Unnatural Proliferation	1274	33.52	-0.116	57.85%	-1.858	0.2282
Untended Land Crumbles	1141	32.63	-0.124	55.83%	-1.9	0.2057

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	11895	34.08%	33.51	0.001	82.75%	0.203	-0.5578
B	12181	33.25%	34.74	0.0	82.41%	0.195	-0.6621
C	15980	33.13%	36.41	0.005	82.67%	0.374	-0.7152
D	10849	31.74%	34.54	0.006	84.05%	0.273	-0.5768
E	5131	36.37%	35.99	0.003	81.31%	0.327	-0.6378
East	1799	37.55%	43.96	-0.021	73.87%	-0.058	-0.7072
F	9998	32.66%	33.46	0.0	83.28%	0.134	-0.7803
G	10793	33.45%	33.92	-0.002	82.31%	0.178	-0.727
H	11270	33.11%	34.45	0.001	82.8%	0.229	-0.685
Northeast	1424	37.56%	43.12	-0.015	75.56%	-0.142	-0.7403
Northwest	905	40.74%	38.51	-0.038	70.83%	-0.392	-1.0615
Southeast	357	37.36%	37.03	-0.013	77.59%	-0.325	-1.0308
Southwest	322	40.31%	34.18	-0.023	75.16%	-0.421	-0.694
West	1150	44.21%	38.13	-0.046	68.43%	-0.485	-0.8841

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	3394	0.0%	23.62	-0.023	88.07%	-1.621	0.4353
Not Using Events or Tokens	12423	21.24%	31.7	0.027	91.0%	0.261	0.4773
Skip Initial Invader Actions	3005	7.99%	40.7	0.038	95.71%	0.765	0.0779
Start of Game Growth	4494	10.16%	41.19	0.035	93.55%	0.524	0.0542
Unlimited Undo	9067	28.22%	38.02	0.027	88.47%	0.583	0.1634
Using Tokens but Not Events	12510	19.98%	33.15	0.023	89.66%	0.091	0.0389

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	3788	29.28%	33.81	-0.015	78.33%	-0.336	-0.2216
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	1524	48.4%	31.66	-0.02	75.39%	-0.253	-0.0465
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4808	30.66%	32.36	0.004	83.17%	-0.01	-0.1153
Eyes Watch From the Trees	5798	26.38%	33.7	0.015	85.67%	0.184	-0.2092
Fractured Days Split the Sky	396	34.95%	36.97	0.013	82.58%	0.226	0.58
Heart of the Wildfire	2285	49.05%	32.15	-0.017	75.27%	-0.103	0.2247
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	5219	30.47%	40.39	0.016	83.71%	0.323	-0.0066
Lightning's Swift Strike	4090	36.74%	35.48	-0.001	79.98%	0.079	0.3146
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1326	38.2%	37.55	-0.007	78.28%	-0.051	-0.3382
Many Minds Move as One	788	35.62%	35.64	0.022	84.26%	0.412	-0.1188

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	1882	3.605	33.713	82.31%
Animated Wrackroot	1338	3.306	34.854	86.55%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	583	3.53	36.005	87.14%
Birds Cry Warning	393	4.463	37.702	82.7%
Blood Draws Predators	774	4.527	38.779	85.14%
Call of the Dahan Ways	10477	3.951	37.873	86.7%
Call To Bloodshed	1358	2.857	33.096	87.26%
Call to Ferocity	754	4.373	38.434	83.82%
Call to Guard	1320	4.878	39.159	82.2%
Call To Isolation	1651	4.209	36.855	83.59%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	1815	3.434	33.271	84.3%
Angry Bears	254	4.252	37.791	86.61%
Bargains of Power and Protection	381	4.501	37.538	81.63%
Blazing Renewal	1335	5.751	37.49	71.76%
Bloodwrack Plague	1852	4.426	36.008	80.08%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	1422	3.864	33.743	81.5%
Cleansing Floods	6104	2.636	31.128	85.48%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	1110	3.637	34.673	84.41%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	809	4.211	34.559	79.6%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	245	4.633	35.918	80.41%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Exaltation of Tangled Growth	77.87%
Foul Vapors and Fetid Muck	84.48%
Intractable Thickets and Thorns	98.24%
Open Shifting Waterways	91.18%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	7214	22.35	20.96%
II	34875	30.84	76.92%
III	39931	34.35	92.61%
IV	12034	37.52	99.36%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	5896
Lose: Blight pool ran out	9227
Lose: Invader deck ran out	506
Lose: Scenario condition	951
Lose: Spirit destroyed	198
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	1511
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	25767
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	36265
Win: Sacrifice victory	213
Win: Scenario condition	1662
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	11858

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.463 Win Model: -0.276

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	1322	5.82%	28.46	97.35%	97.74%
-2	481	4.99%	28.56	97.51%	97.05%
-1	955	9.46%	26.55	96.54%	96.14%
0	29053	16.53%	23.18	94.83%	94.98%
1	7389	20.01%	26.95	94.4%	93.49%
2	5270	24.9%	31.35	93.68%	91.59%
3	4893	31.18%	35.02	89.21%	89.21%
4	5732	34.7%	39.48	87.91%	86.24%
5	4220	41.23%	39.11	72.96%	82.63%
6	7071	46.75%	42.75	77.44%	78.3%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.599

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	54634	31.86%	35.73	83.59%
2	22896	38.28%	33.4	79.98%
3	8852	35.98%	34.4	80.22%
4	7672	30.29%	35.73	80.74%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.009 Win Model: -0.834

Power Progression?	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
Power Progression	5626	24.35	86.03%
Standard	88428	35.72	81.92%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.