Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 920 36.87% 29.86 -0.031 76.41% -0.738 -0.1609
Dahan Insurrection 4 1348 24.61% 54.72 -0.03 75.0% -0.581 -0.1799
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 35.0 0.072 100.0% 0.026 0.4551
Elemental Invocation 1 44 34.09% 32.14 -0.015 79.55% -0.611 -0.2296
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5855 11.78% 48.19 0.011 83.31% -0.085 0.2808
Powers Long Forgotten 1 610 56.18% 33.11 -0.072 63.77% -0.854 -0.4121
Rituals of Terror 3 451 37.64% 42.48 -0.029 76.94% -0.703 -0.0744
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 277 64.0% 41.08 -0.037 71.84% -0.544 0.1061
Second Wave 0 4609 30.59% 32.74 0.0 85.4% -0.684 -0.2677
The Great River 3 139 41.73% 36.58 -0.044 75.54% -1.429 0.0425
Ward the Shores 2 615 38.45% 37.46 -0.059 70.08% -1.147 -0.1104

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 42712 31.94% 35.33 0.01 83.63% -1.019 -0.6605
1 Thematic 2763 38.53% 40.95 -0.023 74.01% -1.118 -0.6142
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12995 38.8% 33.41 -0.004 80.42% -0.543 -0.3474
2 Coastline 1556 38.34% 32.96 0.004 82.01% -0.53 -0.3875
2 Fragment 408 37.56% 32.2 -0.001 80.88% -0.503 -0.0804
2 Heart 227 41.44% 29.44 -0.007 80.62% -1.014 -0.7214
2 Opposite Shores 2462 32.72% 33.39 -0.008 80.38% -0.763 -0.5379
2 Thematic 1208 46.26% 37.54 -0.055 65.81% -0.934 -0.8889
2 Top to Top 331 43.69% 31.25 -0.033 73.41% -1.049 -0.9149
3 Coastline 54 35.19% 39.91 0.016 83.33% 0.598 0.5643
3 Other 490 42.27% 38.25 0.027 84.69% 0.373 0.7888
3 Round (Default) 6705 35.61% 33.89 -0.002 80.06% 0.136 0.1748
3 Sunrise 50 34.0% 32.06 -0.021 76.0% -0.278 -0.5012
3 Thematic 325 44.14% 36.6 -0.054 65.85% -0.337 -0.6939
4 Coastline 12 25.0% 38.75 0.046 91.67% 1.04 1.1983
4 Leaf 31 26.67% 27.97 -0.028 77.42% -0.136 -0.1085
4 Other 230 36.0% 34.31 0.032 86.52% 1.032 1.1447
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 31.0 0.075 100.0% 0.297 -0.4912
4 Snake 1 100.0% 50.0 0.145 100.0% 0.519 0.6431
4 Thematic 1154 31.33% 43.65 0.007 77.82% 1.081 -0.005
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5071 29.49% 33.6 -0.001 80.34% 0.656 0.6389
5 Other 81 33.33% 36.89 0.081 95.06% 2.334 2.1153
5 Thematic 15 40.0% 40.53 0.083 93.33% 1.239 -1.5888

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2169 34.31 -0.105 60.3% -1.721 0.3488
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1996 34.97 -0.105 60.22% -1.723 0.1949
All Things Weaken 850 32.03 -0.145 51.41% -2.129 0.026
Back Against the Wall 1884 33.29 -0.129 55.31% -1.967 0.1296
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2116 30.82 -0.137 53.83% -2.033 0.1905
Downward Spiral 3643 31.58 -0.102 63.52% -1.841 0.1757
Erosion of Will 2161 32.73 -0.13 55.67% -1.991 0.2188
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 385 36.58 -0.021 78.7% -0.854 -0.1493
Memory Fades to Dust 3757 31.58 -0.118 60.18% -1.977 0.2376
Power Corrodes the Spirit 877 33.72 -0.107 59.18% -1.728 0.2917
Promising Farmlands 2119 30.35 -0.147 52.1% -2.156 0.0564
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 244 38.04 -0.01 80.74% -0.666 -0.2302
Thriving Communities 906 31.64 -0.125 55.63% -1.915 0.183
Tipping Point 992 33.38 -0.12 57.46% -1.803 0.4157
Unnatural Proliferation 958 33.28 -0.119 56.47% -1.857 0.2204
Untended Land Crumbles 881 31.83 -0.125 55.28% -1.91 0.1885

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 10026 34.68% 33.5 0.001 82.31% 0.194 -0.8956
B 10275 33.63% 34.66 0.001 82.06% 0.178 -1.0072
C 13409 33.29% 36.36 0.005 82.21% 0.343 -1.0723
D 9174 32.21% 34.38 0.006 83.54% 0.252 -0.9252
E 3908 36.72% 36.02 0.004 80.91% 0.319 -0.9582
F 8353 33.07% 33.46 0.0 82.81% 0.124 -1.1194
G 9086 33.96% 33.77 -0.002 81.64% 0.156 -1.0744
H 9446 33.53% 34.48 0.003 82.5% 0.234 -1.0059
East 1617 37.86% 43.97 -0.02 73.16% -0.004 -0.9552
Northeast 1211 37.55% 43.18 -0.016 74.73% -0.102 -0.9918
Northwest 801 40.56% 38.65 -0.04 69.41% -0.361 -1.3261
Southeast 290 40.34% 37.01 -0.014 76.21% -0.267 -1.2686
Southwest 271 39.26% 34.37 -0.023 74.91% -0.457 -1.0648
West 1020 44.11% 38.08 -0.052 66.37% -0.515 -1.2011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2747 0.0% 23.64 -0.022 87.91% -1.571 0.4726
Not Using Events or Tokens 9771 22.17% 31.05 0.026 90.42% 0.189 0.4074
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2533 7.46% 41.1 0.039 95.54% 0.796 0.0922
Start of Game Growth 3749 9.85% 41.52 0.034 93.06% 0.468 0.0132
Unlimited Undo 7385 28.2% 38.21 0.027 88.12% 0.562 0.1501
Using Tokens but Not Events 10346 20.71% 32.86 0.022 89.05% 0.082 0.0348

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3272 29.38% 33.7 -0.014 77.96% -0.316 -0.1701
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1343 48.22% 31.68 -0.019 75.2% -0.242 -0.0051
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4166 30.89% 32.46 0.003 82.48% -0.022 -0.1074
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4983 26.57% 33.85 0.017 85.51% 0.234 -0.1314
Fractured Days Split the Sky 288 36.24% 36.18 0.009 81.25% 0.169 0.5146
Heart of the Wildfire 2035 48.83% 32.0 -0.016 75.09% -0.086 0.2646
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4418 30.77% 39.89 0.017 83.18% 0.32 0.0204
Lightning's Swift Strike 3504 36.77% 35.34 -0.004 78.97% 0.045 0.3137
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 801 38.94% 36.88 -0.008 77.78% -0.01 -0.3296
Many Minds Move as One 591 35.82% 35.0 0.023 84.09% 0.402 -0.1187
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3263 37.12% 36.4 0.003 79.41% 0.165 -0.0298
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4009 34.19% 31.87 -0.008 79.9% -0.226 -0.177
River Surges in Sunlight 3379 35.37% 34.08 -0.007 79.46% -0.164 -0.0016
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2358 34.2% 35.41 -0.016 76.63% -0.198 -0.0485
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1807 43.43% 30.83 -0.02 76.7% -0.358 0.0916
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2656 31.88% 37.34 -0.006 79.37% -0.159 -0.2265
Shroud of Silent Mist 25 60.0% 30.72 0.016 84.0% 0.09 0.0462
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1518 39.48% 34.46 -0.014 75.23% -0.106 -0.1247
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3189 31.44% 33.85 0.011 83.63% 0.134 0.3506
Thunderspeaker 2672 35.25% 36.55 -0.013 77.25% -0.113 -0.055
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1092 55.2% 30.94 -0.04 67.95% -0.304 -0.2837
Vital Strength of the Earth 2076 32.2% 30.19 -0.01 79.87% -0.303 0.5679
Volcano Looming High 257 40.63% 36.16 0.006 79.38% 0.33 0.2676

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Tangled Growth 77.72%
Foul Vapors and Fetid Muck 84.14%
Intractable Thickets and Thorns 98.21%
Open Shifting Waterways 91.08%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6195 22.34 19.66%
II 29069 30.75 76.22%
III 33505 34.26 92.48%
IV 10118 37.47 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1217
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 30359
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21251
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9961
Lose: Invader deck ran out 437
Lose: Adversary condition 5137
Win: Sacrifice victory 176
Lose: Scenario condition 845
Win: Scenario condition 1442
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7893
Lose: Spirit destroyed 169

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.422 Win Model: -0.28

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.624
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 45702 32.41% 35.69 83.06%
2 19161 38.61% 33.5 79.52%
3 7531 36.26% 34.3 79.71%
4 6493 29.79% 35.36 80.18%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.007 Win Model: -0.784
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 74318 35.63 81.38%
Power Progression 4569 24.72 85.86%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)