Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 872 35.97% 30.04 -0.026 77.64% -0.704 -0.1311
Dahan Insurrection 4 1301 24.57% 55.02 -0.027 75.33% -0.52 -0.1188
Elemental Invocation 1 26 30.77% 31.85 -0.01 80.77% -0.44 0.0253
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5334 11.75% 47.23 0.008 82.75% -0.141 0.234
Powers Long Forgotten 1 581 56.3% 32.74 -0.074 63.17% -0.895 -0.4477
Rituals of Terror 3 438 38.1% 42.35 -0.031 76.48% -0.724 -0.1018
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 270 63.06% 41.24 -0.034 72.59% -0.518 0.1066
Second Wave 0 4399 30.68% 32.87 0.001 85.45% -0.674 -0.255
The Great River 3 113 41.59% 36.7 -0.038 76.99% -1.344 0.1405
Ward the Shores 2 593 38.01% 37.53 -0.06 69.81% -1.166 -0.1356

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 40264 32.33% 35.13 0.01 83.36% -0.972 -0.6178
1 Thematic 2624 38.26% 41.25 -0.023 73.74% -1.0 -0.5026
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12282 39.07% 33.48 -0.004 80.26% -0.536 -0.3464
2 Coastline 1496 38.42% 33.05 0.005 82.22% -0.502 -0.3667
2 Fragment 382 36.68% 31.94 -0.001 81.15% -0.549 -0.1232
2 Heart 214 42.38% 29.44 -0.009 79.91% -1.038 -0.7471
2 Opposite Shores 2348 33.2% 33.34 -0.009 79.9% -0.774 -0.5472
2 Thematic 1174 45.98% 37.59 -0.055 65.67% -0.851 -0.8062
2 Top to Top 317 43.09% 31.58 -0.033 73.19% -1.041 -0.9249
3 Coastline 47 38.3% 41.13 0.017 82.98% 0.595 0.557
3 Other 454 42.09% 38.55 0.027 84.14% 0.365 0.7673
3 Round (Default) 6383 35.67% 33.91 -0.0 80.07% 0.108 0.1394
3 Sunrise 50 34.0% 32.06 -0.02 76.0% -0.306 -0.5589
3 Thematic 312 43.73% 36.63 -0.057 65.06% -0.326 -0.6649
4 Coastline 9 33.33% 42.0 0.093 100.0% 1.356 1.478
4 Leaf 30 27.59% 28.0 -0.031 76.67% -0.225 -0.1456
4 Other 218 37.56% 34.55 0.031 85.78% 0.95 1.0314
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 31.0 0.076 100.0% 0.276 -0.516
4 Snake 1 100.0% 50.0 0.144 100.0% 0.492 0.6177
4 Thematic 1084 31.8% 43.46 0.008 77.77% 1.103 0.0252
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4780 29.73% 33.4 -0.002 80.21% 0.568 0.535
5 Other 74 32.43% 37.09 0.081 94.59% 2.221 2.0035
5 Thematic 12 50.0% 33.08 0.075 91.67% 1.104 -1.6634

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2087 34.23 -0.105 59.99% -1.715 0.3531
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1913 34.91 -0.105 60.17% -1.71 0.2068
All Things Weaken 795 32.22 -0.141 51.82% -2.07 0.0904
Back Against the Wall 1795 33.38 -0.128 55.43% -1.942 0.1497
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2027 30.76 -0.137 53.63% -2.025 0.1966
Downward Spiral 3486 31.53 -0.102 63.28% -1.832 0.182
Erosion of Will 2061 32.7 -0.129 55.65% -1.98 0.2309
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 361 35.76 -0.025 77.56% -0.918 -0.2063
Memory Fades to Dust 3598 31.47 -0.119 59.84% -1.975 0.2403
Power Corrodes the Spirit 813 33.69 -0.106 58.92% -1.707 0.3131
Promising Farmlands 2018 30.37 -0.147 51.68% -2.146 0.068
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 227 38.18 -0.01 80.62% -0.659 -0.2416
Thriving Communities 837 31.77 -0.122 55.91% -1.879 0.2279
Tipping Point 992 33.38 -0.118 57.46% -1.784 0.4318
Unnatural Proliferation 893 33.08 -0.118 56.44% -1.852 0.2286
Untended Land Crumbles 817 31.49 -0.128 54.47% -1.932 0.1635

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 9492 35.06% 33.39 0.002 82.11% 0.235 -0.8382
B 9721 33.9% 34.44 0.001 81.94% 0.214 -0.9501
C 12761 33.58% 36.39 0.005 81.92% 0.383 -1.0133
D 8686 32.45% 34.24 0.005 83.23% 0.272 -0.8866
E 3549 37.13% 35.89 0.005 81.01% 0.39 -0.8665
F 7859 33.37% 33.38 0.001 82.76% 0.173 -1.0529
G 8585 34.44% 33.62 -0.003 81.23% 0.183 -1.0298
H 8919 33.86% 34.34 0.002 82.22% 0.266 -0.9555
East 1554 37.85% 43.96 -0.02 73.17% -0.027 -0.9626
Northeast 1151 37.69% 43.02 -0.017 74.11% -0.157 -1.0264
Northwest 771 40.19% 38.78 -0.037 69.91% -0.392 -1.3371
Southeast 268 39.55% 36.71 -0.016 75.75% -0.387 -1.3703
Southwest 261 39.62% 34.33 -0.024 74.71% -0.493 -1.1182
West 984 43.69% 38.23 -0.053 65.85% -0.57 -1.2353

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2629 0.0% 23.77 -0.021 88.17% -1.553 0.4855
Not Using Events or Tokens 8910 22.91% 30.64 0.026 90.19% 0.179 0.3988
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2443 7.42% 41.33 0.041 95.66% 0.864 0.1583
Start of Game Growth 3603 9.94% 41.5 0.035 93.14% 0.473 0.0135
Unlimited Undo 6840 28.51% 37.2 0.023 87.73% 0.466 0.064
Using Tokens but Not Events 9922 20.78% 32.83 0.024 89.08% 0.109 0.0627

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3108 29.8% 33.78 -0.013 78.06% -0.302 -0.155
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1288 48.74% 31.58 -0.02 74.92% -0.257 -0.0201
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3984 31.31% 32.59 0.004 82.38% -0.023 -0.1096
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4789 26.61% 33.91 0.017 85.38% 0.218 -0.1514
Fractured Days Split the Sky 250 34.94% 36.51 0.012 81.6% 0.215 0.5485
Heart of the Wildfire 1882 50.83% 32.19 -0.019 73.91% -0.102 0.2452
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4171 31.11% 39.75 0.017 83.1% 0.312 0.0144
Lightning's Swift Strike 3269 37.03% 35.15 -0.004 78.65% 0.024 0.2928
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 647 38.65% 35.97 -0.009 77.9% -0.041 -0.4022
Many Minds Move as One 548 36.63% 35.1 0.025 84.31% 0.426 -0.0876
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3137 37.26% 36.46 0.003 79.15% 0.156 -0.0411
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3846 34.4% 31.83 -0.008 79.75% -0.239 -0.1921
River Surges in Sunlight 3235 34.9% 33.93 -0.008 79.23% -0.211 -0.0444
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2246 34.58% 35.27 -0.017 76.18% -0.238 -0.0885
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1712 43.71% 30.75 -0.02 76.46% -0.376 0.0735
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2498 32.7% 37.24 -0.004 79.62% -0.119 -0.1831
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1450 39.82% 34.18 -0.015 74.9% -0.139 -0.1575
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3065 31.43% 33.93 0.012 83.72% 0.137 0.3518
Thunderspeaker 2550 35.52% 36.57 -0.013 77.06% -0.122 -0.0621
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1046 55.24% 30.72 -0.041 67.5% -0.352 -0.3162
Vital Strength of the Earth 1978 32.29% 30.21 -0.009 79.88% -0.31 0.5549
Volcano Looming High 143 39.44% 36.44 0.031 84.62% 0.69 0.5888

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Tangled Growth 77.58%
Foul Vapors and Fetid Muck 83.94%
Intractable Thickets and Thorns 98.19%
Open Shifting Waterways 90.98%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5878 22.34 18.8%
II 27332 30.71 75.79%
III 31717 34.23 92.42%
IV 9634 37.48 99.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1104
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28709
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19838
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9490
Lose: Invader deck ran out 420
Lose: Adversary condition 4962
Win: Sacrifice victory 168
Lose: Scenario condition 789
Win: Scenario condition 1394
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7527
Lose: Spirit destroyed 160

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.383 Win Model: -0.284

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.563
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 43103 32.76% 35.53 82.79%
2 18185 38.81% 33.54 79.31%
3 7162 36.33% 34.34 79.66%
4 6111 30.1% 35.15 80.04%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.005 Win Model: -0.743
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 70249 35.51 81.13%
Power Progression 4312 24.91 86.06%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)