Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1080 28.45% 32.03 -0.027 80.0% -0.762 -0.1891
Dahan Insurrection 4 3756 16.98% 62.32 -0.012 81.44% -0.333 0.0676
Elemental Invocation 1 40 35.0% 30.35 -0.003 85.0% -0.518 -0.0532
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3616 11.61% 43.54 -0.034 77.85% -0.774 -0.3991
Powers Long Forgotten 1 889 42.44% 36.18 -0.026 78.29% -0.595 -0.1478
Rituals of Terror 3 648 39.75% 41.27 -0.033 77.62% -0.802 -0.1801
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 289 69.23% 40.45 -0.066 64.71% -0.666 -0.042
Second Wave 0 5462 28.37% 33.88 -0.001 87.62% -0.714 -0.2955
The Great River 3 37 37.84% 33.7 -0.167 54.05% -2.57 -1.085
Ward the Shores 2 563 37.28% 35.31 -0.102 63.94% -1.675 -0.6446

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 53452 24.98% 37.89 0.009 86.66% -0.523 -0.1684
1 Thematic 3268 29.49% 45.19 -0.026 76.65% -0.911 -0.4134
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 15491 34.95% 34.42 -0.008 82.7% -0.402 -0.2124
2 Coastline 2143 28.8% 35.84 0.009 86.93% -0.172 -0.0371
2 Fragment 429 30.27% 29.69 -0.009 83.92% -0.655 -0.2295
2 Heart 234 27.75% 29.56 -0.006 85.47% -0.812 -0.5217
2 Opposite Shores 2913 28.67% 34.09 -0.002 85.1% -0.485 -0.2585
2 Thematic 1266 42.02% 40.37 -0.042 71.88% -0.739 -0.6944
2 Top to Top 410 28.79% 37.8 0.01 86.83% -0.007 0.1091
3 Coastline 79 19.74% 44.2 0.037 93.67% 0.978 0.9403
3 Other 363 34.55% 33.2 0.013 87.33% 0.088 0.4895
3 Round (Default) 8162 33.15% 34.78 -0.002 82.92% 0.07 0.1008
3 Sunrise 40 37.5% 32.58 -0.052 72.5% -0.837 -1.0904
3 Thematic 298 41.08% 37.84 -0.03 74.5% -0.388 -0.7271
4 Coastline 16 12.5% 38.38 0.003 81.25% 0.167 0.2898
4 Leaf 38 27.78% 35.71 0.017 86.84% 0.674 0.754
4 Other 272 35.34% 37.88 0.017 85.66% 0.667 0.7478
4 Reverse Snake 3 33.33% 27.67 0.06 100.0% 0.205 -0.5869
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 -0.075 62.5% -0.306 -0.1798
4 Thematic 1080 37.47% 40.83 -0.018 74.44% 0.288 -0.7899
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5852 26.97% 36.35 0.003 83.99% 0.37 0.3379
5 Other 70 34.29% 40.49 0.068 95.71% 1.731 1.5138
5 Thematic 8 62.5% 43.38 0.111 100.0% 0.961 -1.8066

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2134 36.42 -0.111 61.9% -1.662 0.4062
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1876 37.71 -0.1 64.02% -1.554 0.3628
All Things Weaken 926 35.75 -0.13 57.45% -1.863 0.2971
Back Against the Wall 1967 36.41 -0.115 60.96% -1.701 0.3912
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2047 33.86 -0.121 59.79% -1.741 0.4805
Downward Spiral 3782 34.9 -0.092 67.35% -1.557 0.4572
Erosion of Will 2212 35.52 -0.122 59.72% -1.767 0.4442
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 431 40.24 -0.042 75.17% -0.855 -0.1432
Memory Fades to Dust 3754 34.47 -0.108 64.28% -1.734 0.4815
Power Corrodes the Spirit 924 36.32 -0.113 60.71% -1.668 0.3518
Promising Farmlands 2069 34.07 -0.118 60.66% -1.762 0.4529
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 307 40.71 0.008 86.97% -0.24 0.1773
Thriving Communities 915 35.72 -0.113 60.77% -1.656 0.451
Tipping Point 1050 35.59 -0.107 62.48% -1.593 0.6234
Unnatural Proliferation 938 35.31 -0.127 58.21% -1.84 0.2399
Untended Land Crumbles 925 35.11 -0.128 57.73% -1.825 0.2706

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 11185 27.58% 34.77 -0.003 84.68% 0.033 -1.0402
B 14310 29.37% 37.74 0.003 84.98% 0.238 -0.9266
C 12731 26.99% 36.31 0.004 86.02% 0.186 -1.2106
D 11082 27.14% 35.84 0.004 86.3% 0.19 -0.9679
E 5566 31.01% 38.56 -0.0 83.42% 0.23 -1.0269
F 12590 26.25% 36.93 0.002 85.85% 0.19 -1.0363
G 9740 29.69% 34.57 -0.004 84.36% 0.023 -1.1894
H 13077 26.95% 38.56 0.008 86.37% 0.331 -0.8904
East 1204 39.12% 45.19 -0.032 72.34% -0.074 -1.0095
Northeast 1554 31.63% 43.47 -0.026 75.87% -0.205 -1.0743
Northwest 932 35.69% 40.73 -0.044 71.57% -0.351 -1.2963
Southeast 350 30.66% 41.15 -0.012 78.86% -0.052 -1.0346
Southwest 218 44.5% 32.82 -0.036 74.31% -0.418 -1.0433
West 1357 33.83% 46.15 -0.029 75.83% -0.27 -0.9354

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3161 0.0% 24.91 -0.012 90.89% -1.32 0.7187
Not Using Events or Tokens 10394 20.55% 31.26 0.012 90.61% -0.07 0.1498
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2556 8.59% 40.06 0.028 94.68% 0.672 -0.034
Start of Game Growth 4123 11.54% 40.76 0.02 91.8% 0.345 -0.1138
Unlimited Undo 9708 22.58% 36.74 0.015 89.41% 0.259 -0.1437
Using Tokens but Not Events 13743 18.3% 37.1 0.017 89.11% 0.199 0.1532

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3380 27.23% 35.24 -0.001 83.67% -0.117 0.0293
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2215 41.48% 32.61 -0.013 80.68% -0.317 -0.0803
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4580 28.78% 32.72 0.002 84.89% -0.049 -0.1352
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4789 26.61% 33.91 0.004 85.38% 0.029 -0.2039
Fractured Days Split the Sky 681 26.62% 39.01 0.02 87.52% 0.31 0.644
Heart of the Wildfire 2143 51.87% 34.16 -0.025 75.17% -0.153 0.1947
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5363 27.41% 36.94 0.006 84.54% 0.112 -0.1859
Lightning's Swift Strike 3913 31.94% 34.67 -0.001 83.67% -0.065 0.2032
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 665 35.61% 38.29 0.002 81.65% 0.201 -0.1602
Many Minds Move as One 858 31.85% 38.11 0.017 87.06% 0.346 -0.1677
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3801 32.03% 37.55 0.002 82.58% 0.164 -0.0329
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4264 30.66% 32.95 -0.006 83.09% -0.164 -0.117
River Surges in Sunlight 5088 29.03% 37.6 -0.006 82.74% -0.125 0.0416
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2627 33.95% 37.45 -0.007 80.51% -0.002 0.147
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2026 41.38% 31.36 -0.018 80.06% -0.407 0.0424
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2900 31.3% 37.86 0.003 83.59% 0.129 0.0646
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1730 37.51% 35.16 -0.017 77.92% -0.19 -0.2093
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3464 25.49% 37.7 0.008 85.8% 0.1 0.3155
Thunderspeaker 4804 32.77% 39.25 0.0 82.72% 0.116 0.1755
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 995 53.34% 33.56 -0.017 76.28% -0.029 0.0073
Vital Strength of the Earth 2165 30.82% 31.84 -0.021 79.95% -0.45 0.4143
Volcano Looming High 210 38.76% 35.45 0.001 81.9% 0.217 0.1158

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.12%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.4%
Mysterious Abductions 85.14%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.83%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4140 22.34 8.79%
II 22978 30.71 68.07%
III 43810 34.23 92.54%
IV 24968 37.48 99.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 364
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 39472
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13281
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24603
Lose: Invader deck ran out 474
Lose: Adversary condition 6317
Win: Sacrifice victory 156
Lose: Scenario condition 899
Win: Scenario condition 3419
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6678
Lose: Spirit destroyed 233

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.792 Win Model: -0.257

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.295
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 56742 25.25% 38.31 86.08%
2 22936 33.74% 34.77 82.96%
3 8929 33.36% 34.88 82.86%
4 7289 28.81% 37.09 82.69%

Power Progression

Score Model: 0.003 Win Model: -0.531
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 91564 37.58 84.5%
Power Progression 4332 25.77 90.47%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)