Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1222 28.91% 31.92 -0.029 79.79% -0.763 -0.1816
Dahan Insurrection 4 4268 16.52% 62.85 -0.011 81.98% -0.308 0.0954
Despicable Theft 2 42 23.81% 36.93 -0.011 85.71% -0.738 -0.3876
Elemental Invocation 1 95 31.58% 32.25 -0.019 81.05% -0.752 -0.3794
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3939 11.62% 43.74 -0.033 78.14% -0.744 -0.3798
Powers Long Forgotten 1 990 42.15% 35.96 -0.026 78.59% -0.599 -0.1577
Rituals of Terror 3 686 39.65% 41.08 -0.033 77.84% -0.814 -0.1795
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 306 70.3% 40.51 -0.062 65.69% -0.608 0.033
Second Wave 0 6028 27.98% 33.7 -0.003 87.51% -0.743 -0.3194
The Great River 3 61 34.43% 33.79 -0.177 52.46% -2.787 -1.3654
Ward the Shores 2 606 37.6% 35.3 -0.101 64.19% -1.66 -0.6185

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 60022 24.76% 37.75 0.009 86.78% -0.592 -0.2648
1 Thematic 3716 29.25% 45.29 -0.025 77.42% -0.995 -0.5218
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 17411 34.69% 34.31 -0.007 82.99% -0.422 -0.2252
2 Coastline 2492 27.3% 35.15 0.01 87.44% -0.204 -0.0535
2 Fragment 487 31.28% 29.49 -0.009 83.98% -0.689 -0.2843
2 Heart 257 29.32% 28.76 -0.01 84.82% -0.922 -0.6101
2 Opposite Shores 3313 28.93% 34.09 -0.001 85.42% -0.494 -0.2709
2 Thematic 1364 41.67% 40.28 -0.04 72.43% -0.771 -0.742
2 Top to Top 483 28.36% 37.81 0.007 86.54% -0.089 0.0514
3 Coastline 89 20.93% 42.48 0.028 91.01% 0.708 0.661
3 Other 428 32.78% 32.93 0.015 88.32% 0.092 0.5303
3 Round (Default) 9330 32.57% 34.46 -0.001 83.3% 0.063 0.1215
3 Sunrise 44 38.64% 32.02 -0.054 72.73% -0.898 -1.095
3 Thematic 327 41.72% 37.61 -0.03 74.92% -0.395 -0.7561
4 Coastline 22 13.64% 39.05 0.025 86.36% 0.482 0.6533
4 Leaf 39 29.73% 35.13 0.019 87.18% 0.733 0.7962
4 Other 298 35.62% 37.2 0.018 86.24% 0.711 0.8419
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0% 33.6 0.063 100.0% 0.345 -0.4353
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 -0.074 62.5% -0.276 -0.1206
4 Thematic 1170 37.52% 41.23 -0.017 74.96% 0.317 -0.7429
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6504 27.28% 36.25 0.002 83.79% 0.372 0.4104
5 Other 76 36.84% 41.2 0.072 96.05% 1.903 1.7042
5 Thematic 9 55.56% 42.11 0.107 100.0% 0.991 -1.966

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2341 36.13 -0.111 62.15% -1.686 0.3843
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2082 37.34 -0.104 63.54% -1.62 0.3023
All Things Weaken 1087 35.43 -0.133 57.13% -1.916 0.2371
Back Against the Wall 2167 36.21 -0.117 60.68% -1.731 0.3657
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2265 33.69 -0.123 59.56% -1.78 0.4458
Downward Spiral 4193 34.68 -0.094 67.28% -1.599 0.4199
Erosion of Will 2410 35.47 -0.122 59.75% -1.787 0.4237
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 521 40.18 -0.032 77.74% -0.782 -0.0884
Memory Fades to Dust 4127 34.32 -0.108 64.55% -1.771 0.4442
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1108 36.33 -0.111 61.1% -1.65 0.3668
Promising Farmlands 2303 33.88 -0.118 60.88% -1.78 0.4339
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 377 40.24 0.009 87.53% -0.228 0.2025
Thriving Communities 1083 35.06 -0.117 60.11% -1.734 0.3618
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 -0.108 62.51% -1.611 0.6104
Unnatural Proliferation 1122 35.41 -0.127 58.38% -1.853 0.2338
Untended Land Crumbles 1070 34.88 -0.127 58.04% -1.853 0.2426

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 12538 27.32% 34.63 -0.002 85.1% 0.049 -1.0528
B 15892 29.03% 37.48 0.003 85.14% 0.23 -0.9662
C 14393 26.68% 36.15 0.004 86.27% 0.192 -1.2367
D 12502 27.1% 35.65 0.004 86.26% 0.186 -1.0051
E 6751 30.47% 38.12 -0.0 83.69% 0.23 -1.0689
F 14137 26.17% 36.71 0.002 86.05% 0.194 -1.0601
G 10988 29.57% 34.56 -0.005 84.45% 0.02 -1.2219
H 14510 26.61% 38.52 0.008 86.53% 0.338 -0.9193
East 1312 39.29% 45.15 -0.032 72.87% -0.058 -1.0183
Northeast 1702 31.18% 43.29 -0.025 76.5% -0.192 -1.0932
Northwest 990 35.08% 40.71 -0.045 71.92% -0.342 -1.3165
Southeast 404 31.76% 40.98 -0.013 78.96% -0.057 -1.0616
Southwest 259 45.95% 32.15 -0.049 71.43% -0.525 -1.1246
West 1517 33.58% 47.89 -0.025 77.13% -0.208 -0.9078

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3533 0.0% 24.74 -0.013 90.63% -1.332 0.7164
Not Using Events or Tokens 12444 19.84% 31.72 0.013 90.91% -0.061 0.16
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2876 9.13% 39.9 0.026 94.05% 0.579 -0.1259
Start of Game Growth 4605 11.54% 40.64 0.019 91.53% 0.307 -0.1443
Unlimited Undo 10858 22.29% 36.68 0.015 89.74% 0.289 -0.128
Using Tokens but Not Events 15285 17.68% 36.79 0.017 89.48% 0.192 0.1413

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3819 27.08% 34.93 -0.002 83.66% -0.146 -0.0099
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2423 41.08% 32.45 -0.013 81.02% -0.309 -0.0779
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 5075 28.3% 32.6 0.001 85.04% -0.064 -0.1509
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5204 26.55% 33.82 0.004 85.51% 0.021 -0.2348
Fractured Days Split the Sky 832 27.99% 39.27 0.015 86.3% 0.261 0.6223
Heart of the Wildfire 2313 52.22% 33.84 -0.028 74.75% -0.194 0.1557
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6061 26.85% 36.67 0.008 85.17% 0.137 -0.1648
Lightning's Swift Strike 4384 31.83% 34.42 -0.001 84.08% -0.05 0.2112
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 992 35.23% 37.76 0.004 82.66% 0.237 -0.0532
Many Minds Move as One 1018 31.36% 37.71 0.018 87.52% 0.338 -0.1893
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4285 31.66% 37.46 0.002 82.82% 0.155 -0.0412
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4683 30.51% 32.82 -0.005 83.41% -0.165 -0.1207
River Surges in Sunlight 5812 28.88% 37.59 -0.005 82.98% -0.106 0.0462
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2934 33.53% 36.98 -0.008 80.81% -0.029 0.1155
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2280 41.37% 31.2 -0.016 80.57% -0.374 0.0678
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3125 31.26% 37.49 0.003 83.71% 0.121 0.0491
Shroud of Silent Mist 261 35.0% 33.75 0.018 88.12% 0.267 0.2441
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1946 37.41% 35.12 -0.016 78.26% -0.156 -0.1765
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3748 25.82% 37.44 0.007 85.75% 0.081 0.2906
Thunderspeaker 5302 32.24% 39.05 -0.0 82.97% 0.095 0.149
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1080 53.59% 33.35 -0.017 76.48% -0.036 -0.022
Vital Strength of the Earth 2423 30.73% 31.46 -0.021 80.07% -0.449 0.4196
Volcano Looming High 456 38.11% 34.82 -0.008 80.48% -0.017 -0.046

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.13%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.56%
Mysterious Abductions 85.35%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.9%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4526 22.33 8.79%
II 25908 30.75 68.64%
III 49374 34.25 92.5%
IV 28087 37.47 99.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 398
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 44472
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15081
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27683
Lose: Invader deck ran out 526
Lose: Adversary condition 6943
Win: Sacrifice victory 174
Lose: Scenario condition 984
Win: Scenario condition 3888
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7485
Lose: Spirit destroyed 261

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.805 Win Model: -0.255

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.326
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 63766 25.03% 38.19 86.24%
2 25861 33.4% 34.61 83.31%
3 10209 32.8% 34.54 83.26%
4 8059 29.07% 37.03 82.67%

Power Progression

Score Model: 0.001 Win Model: -0.591
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 102976 37.45 84.74%
Power Progression 4919 25.46 90.08%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)