Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 89 21.35% 25.46 83.15% -0.005 -0.2707 -0.889
Blitz 0 1832 27.6% 31.55 79.59% -0.355 -0.1984 -0.919
Dahan Insurrection 4 6134 16.05% 61.84 81.45% -0.081 -0.3485 0.491
Despicable Theft 2 242 25.62% 37.71 85.54% -0.596 0.1662 0.36
Elemental Invocation 1 278 33.81% 32.66 79.14% -0.487 0.2737 -0.779
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5347 11.36% 43.4 77.59% 0.441 -0.1922 0.132
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1361 39.68% 35.39 79.13% -1.177 -0.6433 -0.391
Rituals of Terror 3 1027 43.39% 48.58 74.68% -0.409 -0.3069 0.138
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 426 66.43% 38.92 64.79% -1.145 -0.1395 -1.613
Second Wave 0 9368 26.81% 33.41 87.66% 0.259 0.3253 0.275
The Great River 3 168 34.52% 29.64 50.0% -2.486 -1.1632 -1.255
Varied Terrains 2 70 42.86% 35.49 81.43% -0.547 0.0317 -0.487
Ward the Shores 2 852 37.78% 34.55 65.02% -0.597 0.5581 -0.855

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 93628 24.8% 36.98 85.89% 0.349 0.5185 0.203
1 Thematic 5212 29.29% 44.9 78.28% 0.086 0.6759 -0.073
2 Archipelago 96 22.11% 66.74 93.75% 1.408 1.7839 0.942
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27336 34.35% 33.7 82.62% 0.162 0.2748 -0.043
2 Coastline 4326 25.1% 34.71 87.19% 0.282 0.2483 0.22
2 Fragment 710 32.45% 29.35 84.08% -0.157 -0.2733 -0.187
2 Heart 426 34.72% 29.5 83.33% 1.058 0.7103 0.508
2 Opposite Shores 5394 30.18% 33.77 84.04% 0.238 0.3068 -0.406
2 Thematic 2172 43.43% 42.37 70.86% -0.172 0.4209 -0.412
2 Top to Top 815 30.05% 36.74 84.79% 0.163 0.1112 -0.078
3 Archipelago 59 38.98% 45.81 86.44% 0.308 -1.1132 -0.661
3 Coastline 162 23.9% 39.66 87.65% 0.07 -0.4033 1.006
3 Other 724 28.94% 30.79 85.91% -0.399 -0.128 -0.185
3 Round (Default) 15072 31.41% 33.81 83.26% 0.291 0.134 -0.243
3 Sunrise 63 33.33% 32.7 77.78% -0.097 -0.1697 -0.144
3 Thematic 533 39.66% 35.87 73.55% -0.919 -0.8862 -0.665
4 Archipelago 45 27.91% 39.62 93.33% -0.206 -0.8604 0.423
4 Coastline 78 17.95% 35.17 80.77% 0.023 0.1982 1.395
4 Leaf 74 30.56% 30.8 83.78% 0.106 -0.6059 0.464
4 Other 417 36.1% 35.17 86.33% 0.518 -0.5773 0.051
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% 0.0 -0.4083 -0.595
4 Thematic 1593 38.74% 41.2 73.95% -0.418 -0.5774 -0.333
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9732 27.41% 35.78 84.06% -0.114 -0.3522 -0.104
5 Archipelago 12 41.67% 40.33 83.33% -0.783 -1.8337 0.47
5 Coastline 33 9.09% 53.52 93.94% -0.246 -0.5414 0.686
5 Other 500 22.31% 32.36 89.0% 0.423 -0.1375 0.305
5 Thematic 56 42.86% 38.98 80.36% -0.533 -0.652 0.103
6 Archipelago 24 12.5% 37.71 83.33% -0.849 -0.6677 0.025
6 Coastline 13 7.69% 55.38 92.31% 0.158 -0.6024 0.366
6 Other 164 21.74% 33.29 80.49% -0.548 -0.9463 0.025
6 Star 103 24.27% 32.16 86.41% 0.478 0.5108 -0.043
6 Thematic 412 28.78% 32.43 75.73% -0.737 -0.3262 -1.457
6 Two Centers (Default) 759 19.47% 34.15 84.72% -0.222 -0.2593 -0.095
7 Archipelago 8 50.0% 44.88 62.5% -0.4 -1.0012 -0.107
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 12 16.67% 19.25 58.33% 0.037 -0.9349 -0.253

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3503 35.8 61.18% -0.239 -0.0491 -0.755
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3207 37.38 63.64% 0.149 0.0845 -0.48
All Things Weaken 2072 35.2 57.38% -0.667 -0.2804 -0.977
Attenuated Essence 59 28.81 49.15% -0.204 -0.0984 -1.454
Back Against the Wall 3197 36.0 60.74% -0.06 0.0027 -0.65
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 56 28.77 41.07% -0.623 -0.34 -2.035
Burn Brightest Before the End 67 35.69 53.73% -0.382 -0.1909 -0.34
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3366 33.72 59.66% -0.036 0.3956 -0.796
Downward Spiral 6125 34.19 67.23% -0.297 -0.0362 -0.833
Erosion of Will 3551 35.12 60.21% -0.103 0.2263 -0.818
Intensifying Exploitation 59 27.07 42.37% -0.517 -0.2189 -1.864
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1027 40.38 78.29% 0.816 0.3174 -0.187
Memory Fades to Dust 6159 33.66 64.05% -0.627 -0.2329 -0.881
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2090 35.82 60.57% -0.698 -0.4531 -0.872
Promising Farmlands 3409 33.92 60.52% -0.281 0.206 -0.966
Shattered Fragments of Power 48 30.67 56.25% -0.034 0.0431 -0.82
Slow Dissolution of Will 58 28.86 43.1% -0.585 -0.1509 -1.582
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 723 40.63 85.62% 1.118 0.4855 0.319
The Border of Life and Death 13 37.69 76.92% 0.788 0.4273 -0.736
Thriving Communities 2020 35.6 60.25% -0.253 0.1249 -0.918
Thriving Crops 31 34.61 64.52% 0.365 0.3083 0.079
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 -0.1719 -0.72
Unnatural Proliferation 2172 36.51 58.98% -0.387 -0.1871 -0.86
Untended Land Crumbles 2059 34.83 58.62% -0.451 -0.1811 -0.973

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 34910 28.58% 34.42 84.24% -0.407 0.4546 -0.098
B 41082 29.4% 35.57 84.06% -0.506 0.3213 0.256
C 38069 28.0% 35.29 84.92% -0.234 0.4545 0.102
D 34210 27.79% 34.69 85.14% -0.262 0.5659 0.114
E 22623 29.55% 36.41 83.08% -0.099 0.5596 0.088
F 35302 27.5% 35.06 84.8% -0.239 0.5137 0.04
G 30117 30.09% 34.02 83.56% -0.381 0.389 -0.143
H 35180 27.69% 36.29 85.25% -0.111 0.5783 0.316
East 6852 35.77% 42.02 74.61% -0.231 0.4157 -0.331
Northeast 4409 35.05% 41.08 75.3% -0.147 0.6869 -0.402
Northwest 3292 37.13% 39.96 73.75% -0.463 0.3294 -0.948
Southeast 1582 33.31% 37.95 76.42% -0.663 0.1016 -0.589
Southwest 1408 40.31% 33.01 68.82% -0.502 0.583 -1.003
West 6062 36.93% 42.82 74.07% -0.25 0.7047 0.51

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5584 0.0% 24.34 89.42% -0.976 -0.1505 -0.529
Not Using Events or Tokens 21128 18.72% 31.59 90.7% 0.093 0.4298 0.048
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4192 8.24% 38.19 93.25% 0.452 -0.1556 0.02
Start of Game Growth 6810 11.61% 39.07 90.62% -0.307 -0.5849 -0.104
Unlimited Undo 16737 21.96% 35.63 88.98% -0.27 -0.2694 0.496
Using Tokens but Not Events 24030 16.8% 35.22 89.43% 0.459 0.3886 0.298

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6181 100.0% 34.36 100.0% 0.438 0.2833 0.005
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3532 100.0% 31.97 100.0% -0.104 0.0164 0.043
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 8109 100.0% 31.81 100.0% -0.104 -0.2598 -0.217
Downpour Drenches the World 492 100.0% 31.14 100.0% 0.295 0.4954 -0.03
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 433 100.0% 27.98 100.0% 0.35 -0.4652 -0.929
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7993 100.0% 33.11 100.0% -0.009 -0.4928 -0.164
Finder of Paths Unseen 248 100.0% 29.44 100.0% -0.396 0.2852 0.159
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1687 100.0% 39.27 100.0% -0.223 0.423 0.312
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1008 100.0% 35.57 100.0% 0.11 0.0246 0.253
Heart of the Wildfire 3280 100.0% 33.05 100.0% -0.074 0.1751 -0.415
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9533 100.0% 36.17 100.0% -0.006 -0.431 0.317
Lightning's Swift Strike 5389 121.94% 32.03 106.11% -0.227 -0.001 0.148
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 210 36.54% 34.08 78.1% -0.2 -0.8416 0.388
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 778 35.82% 38.31 82.9% -0.217 -0.4323 0.743
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 862 32.58% 38.2 82.6% 0.128 -0.0257 0.485
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3084 100.0% 36.23 100.0% -0.015 -0.1447 -0.151
Many Minds Move as One 2184 100.0% 36.62 100.0% 0.258 0.0736 0.273
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6793 100.0% 36.65 100.0% 0.201 0.2018 0.356
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 7131 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.05 -0.088 -0.324
River Surges in Sunlight 7985 117.97% 37.18 103.68% 0.326 0.3765 0.216
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1439 20.53% 31.38 87.21% 0.132 0.3884 -0.222
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 513 34.77% 43.1 78.56% 0.348 0.2354 0.074
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4615 100.0% 36.82 100.0% 0.307 0.0823 -0.053
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2506 126.29% 29.45 108.86% -0.905 -0.4064 -0.251
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 68 30.3% 31.74 83.82% 0.275 0.2413 0.018
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 93 31.87% 31.94 75.27% 0.0 -0.0185 -0.163
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 513 38.48% 32.68 81.68% -0.417 -0.4942 -0.432
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 421 37.38% 30.66 77.67% -0.538 -0.445 -0.186
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4446 101.6% 36.53 100.67% -0.318 -0.435 0.338
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 104 31.73% 28.07 71.15% 0.242 -0.2051 -0.47
Shifting Memory of Ages 817 100.0% 32.83 100.0% -0.119 0.266 0.027
Shroud of Silent Mist 1155 100.0% 31.17 100.0% -0.008 0.2785 0.108
Starlight Seeks its Form 1098 100.0% 36.2 100.0% 0.381 0.1261 -0.145
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3203 100.0% 35.24 100.0% 0.355 -0.1426 -0.204
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5937 100.0% 35.68 100.0% -0.077 -0.0176 0.392
Thunderspeaker 8311 100.6% 38.12 100.34% 0.347 0.3351 0.213
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 79 36.71% 28.0 64.56% -0.027 -0.1665 0.037
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1707 100.0% 33.11 100.0% -0.336 -0.2824 0.07
Vital Strength of the Earth 3199 112.1% 30.43 104.1% -0.129 0.4182 -0.729
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 183 34.81% 33.91 73.22% -0.206 0.0458 0.14
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 423 32.17% 31.28 80.61% -0.416 0.4641 -0.219
Volcano Looming High 1628 100.0% 34.76 100.0% 0.399 0.3926 0.14

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.11%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.57%
Mysterious Abductions 85.51%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.94%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8190 20.73 7.28%
II 41311 31.02 68.87%
III 77559 34.75 92.45%
IV 43763 38.04 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 596
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 69961
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24622
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 43154
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1695
Lose: Invader deck ran out 770
Lose: Adversary condition 10774
Win: Sacrifice victory 263
Lose: Scenario condition 1433
Win: Scenario condition 5550
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11646
Lose: Spirit destroyed 359

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.587 Win Model: -0.162

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.289 Win Model: -0.085
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 99180 25.13% 37.5 85.43%
2 41196 33.12% 34.06 82.86%
3 16544 31.45% 33.82 83.09%
4 11985 29.13% 36.47 82.95%
5 459 18.32% 32.0 87.15%
6 1459 22.49% 33.28 81.63%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)