Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 91 20.88% 25.59 83.52% 0.232 -0.0518 -0.914
Blitz 0 1842 27.62% 31.49 79.42% -0.504 -0.3433 -0.86
Dahan Insurrection 4 6178 15.95% 61.81 81.52% -0.009 -0.3892 0.503
Despicable Theft 2 246 25.61% 37.1 84.15% -0.811 -0.0441 0.37
Elemental Invocation 1 286 33.22% 32.26 78.32% -0.708 0.017 -0.77
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5372 11.4% 43.33 77.48% 0.234 -0.3977 0.141
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1367 39.65% 35.36 79.01% -0.984 -0.3765 -0.398
Rituals of Terror 3 1033 43.23% 48.53 74.54% -0.84 -0.6798 0.136
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 427 66.27% 39.0 64.87% -1.177 -0.1148 -1.556
Second Wave 0 9429 26.8% 33.39 87.61% 0.319 0.396 0.288
The Great River 3 169 34.32% 29.47 49.7% -2.494 -1.2701 -1.288
Varied Terrains 2 74 40.54% 35.2 81.08% -0.418 0.2055 -0.485
Ward the Shores 2 856 37.72% 34.5 65.07% -0.359 0.684 -0.847

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 94278 24.8% 36.95 85.78% 0.47 0.5756 0.188
1 Thematic 5230 29.22% 44.88 78.24% 0.088 0.617 -0.083
2 Archipelago 96 22.11% 66.74 93.75% 0.878 1.1728 0.914
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27539 34.33% 33.63 82.42% 0.171 0.2772 -0.056
2 Coastline 4362 24.99% 34.66 87.02% 0.363 0.2763 0.197
2 Fragment 713 32.46% 29.31 84.15% -0.254 -0.4512 -0.19
2 Heart 430 34.62% 29.42 83.02% 0.758 0.4719 0.512
2 Opposite Shores 5433 30.2% 33.74 83.91% 0.351 0.4043 -0.431
2 Thematic 2195 43.29% 42.17 70.52% -0.295 0.1549 -0.427
2 Top to Top 822 30.41% 36.66 84.79% 0.523 0.4299 -0.084
3 Archipelago 61 37.7% 46.61 86.89% 0.588 -1.0194 -0.666
3 Coastline 163 23.75% 39.58 87.73% 0.513 0.0015 1.235
3 Other 733 28.99% 30.56 85.27% -0.445 0.1272 -0.19
3 Round (Default) 15190 31.42% 33.75 83.05% 0.249 0.135 -0.266
3 Sunrise 63 33.33% 32.7 77.78% -0.295 -0.0124 -0.142
3 Thematic 540 39.7% 35.76 73.33% -0.798 -0.7932 -0.634
4 Archipelago 45 27.91% 39.62 93.33% -0.165 -0.8829 0.427
4 Coastline 78 17.95% 35.17 80.77% 0.113 0.3324 1.397
4 Leaf 74 30.56% 30.8 83.78% -0.212 -0.5857 0.46
4 Other 417 36.1% 35.17 86.33% 0.55 -0.493 0.065
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% 0.0 -0.35 -0.596
4 Thematic 1597 38.77% 41.19 74.01% -0.19 -0.4393 -0.337
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9774 27.4% 35.73 83.96% -0.252 -0.3789 -0.102
5 Archipelago 12 41.67% 40.33 83.33% -0.823 -1.9862 0.455
5 Coastline 33 9.09% 53.52 93.94% -0.24 -1.0115 0.68
5 Other 509 22.91% 32.25 89.19% 0.558 0.2531 0.336
5 Thematic 57 42.11% 38.7 80.7% -0.273 -0.216 0.076
6 Archipelago 24 12.5% 37.71 83.33% -0.672 -0.3784 0.015
6 Coastline 13 7.69% 55.38 92.31% 0.062 -0.6335 0.366
6 Other 167 21.34% 33.53 80.84% -0.424 -0.8413 0.01
6 Star 105 24.76% 31.88 86.67% 0.73 0.7524 -0.035
6 Thematic 418 28.85% 32.36 75.6% -0.946 -0.6506 -1.445
6 Two Centers (Default) 781 19.17% 33.96 84.25% -0.242 -0.1486 -0.082
7 Archipelago 8 50.0% 44.88 62.5% -0.5 -0.5845 -0.184
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 12 16.67% 19.25 58.33% -0.38 -0.9403 -0.259

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3523 35.79 61.11% -0.269 -0.0393 -0.735
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3228 37.32 63.54% 0.177 0.1026 -0.462
All Things Weaken 2082 35.18 57.35% -0.685 -0.3171 -0.961
Attenuated Essence 74 29.12 50.0% -0.206 -0.1153 -1.309
Back Against the Wall 3207 36.0 60.71% -0.224 -0.1721 -0.637
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 68 29.37 41.18% -0.427 -0.2096 -1.51
Burn Brightest Before the End 72 34.69 52.78% -0.358 -0.1888 -0.42
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3381 33.69 59.6% -0.045 0.3586 -0.789
Downward Spiral 6156 34.14 67.07% -0.408 -0.1669 -0.83
Erosion of Will 3561 35.08 60.15% -0.111 0.1927 -0.806
Intensifying Exploitation 70 28.19 45.71% -0.307 -0.0286 -1.353
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1034 40.26 77.85% 0.736 0.247 -0.223
Memory Fades to Dust 6183 33.6 64.06% -0.599 -0.2594 -0.868
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2105 35.9 60.67% -0.432 -0.2088 -0.849
Promising Farmlands 3423 33.95 60.56% -0.175 0.2834 -0.944
Shattered Fragments of Power 55 30.93 56.36% -0.169 -0.1356 -1.003
Slow Dissolution of Will 72 29.56 41.67% -0.419 -0.0235 -1.477
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 724 40.63 85.64% 1.422 0.7318 0.335
The Border of Life and Death 14 38.36 78.57% 0.743 0.41 -0.697
Thriving Communities 2044 35.43 59.98% -0.384 -0.0398 -0.907
Thriving Crops 35 33.03 62.86% 0.322 0.135 0.077
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 -0.1755 -0.704
Unnatural Proliferation 2191 36.48 58.92% -0.342 -0.164 -0.854
Untended Land Crumbles 2079 34.75 58.35% -0.486 -0.2254 -0.979

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 35174 28.56% 34.37 84.07% -0.43 0.3423 -0.103
B 41360 29.4% 35.53 83.95% -0.541 0.2135 0.25
C 38351 27.98% 35.22 84.78% -0.287 0.3172 0.083
D 34449 27.81% 34.64 85.0% -0.341 0.387 0.105
E 22856 29.5% 36.34 82.9% -0.157 0.439 0.094
F 35558 27.45% 35.02 84.67% -0.235 0.4234 0.031
G 30317 30.12% 33.96 83.4% -0.438 0.243 -0.142
H 35426 27.69% 36.23 85.1% -0.171 0.4238 0.307
East 6899 35.72% 41.93 74.49% -0.208 0.3742 -0.341
Northeast 4434 35.01% 41.04 75.21% 0.133 0.8174 -0.381
Northwest 3311 37.07% 39.85 73.63% -0.618 0.2117 -0.969
Southeast 1604 33.29% 37.75 76.06% -0.735 0.0144 -0.596
Southwest 1426 40.23% 32.92 68.86% -0.58 0.4145 -1.008
West 6100 36.88% 42.73 74.0% -0.148 0.8026 0.508

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5622 0.0% 24.28 89.17% -1.062 -0.2763 -0.511
Not Using Events or Tokens 21259 18.72% 31.55 90.55% 0.085 0.4421 0.044
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4212 8.21% 38.17 93.26% 0.688 0.0511 0.054
Start of Game Growth 6859 11.64% 38.97 90.42% -0.322 -0.6186 -0.143
Unlimited Undo 16848 21.96% 35.56 88.79% -0.214 -0.2325 0.489
Using Tokens but Not Events 24207 16.83% 35.18 89.34% 0.449 0.403 0.302

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6233 100.0% 34.3 100.0% 0.509 0.3551 0.021
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3554 100.0% 31.86 100.0% -0.212 -0.0764 0.031
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 8167 100.0% 31.73 100.0% -0.024 -0.1543 -0.21
Downpour Drenches the World 507 100.0% 30.85 100.0% 0.123 0.3121 -0.019
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 479 100.0% 28.56 100.0% 0.331 -0.4649 -0.857
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 8045 100.0% 33.04 100.0% -0.056 -0.5542 -0.152
Finder of Paths Unseen 258 100.0% 30.02 100.0% -0.126 0.5459 0.353
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1696 100.0% 39.25 100.0% -0.0 0.5719 0.338
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1024 100.0% 35.53 100.0% 0.136 0.0503 0.203
Heart of the Wildfire 3293 100.0% 33.05 100.0% -0.026 0.2152 -0.413
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9606 100.0% 36.1 100.0% 0.11 -0.3316 0.329
Lightning's Swift Strike 5431 121.95% 31.88 106.24% -0.388 -0.1826 0.152
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 222 37.73% 33.77 75.68% -0.114 -0.6092 0.15
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 781 35.81% 38.22 82.84% -0.331 -0.4896 0.759
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 867 32.54% 38.16 82.58% 0.328 0.2058 0.49
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3116 100.0% 36.11 100.0% 0.058 -0.0803 -0.171
Many Minds Move as One 2201 100.0% 36.52 100.0% 0.178 -0.0224 0.27
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6821 100.0% 36.58 100.0% 0.23 0.2036 0.364
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 7183 100.0% 32.22 100.0% 0.129 -0.0348 -0.313
River Surges in Sunlight 8017 118.34% 37.14 103.79% 0.265 0.3344 0.225
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1455 20.67% 31.36 87.08% 0.11 0.3948 -0.204
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 543 33.33% 43.12 78.64% 0.576 0.4452 0.138
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4638 100.0% 36.75 100.0% 0.169 -0.087 -0.044
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2517 126.6% 29.42 109.02% -0.837 -0.3359 -0.24
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 70 31.34% 31.96 82.86% 0.095 0.0233 -0.022
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 93 31.87% 31.94 75.27% 0.07 0.0101 -0.166
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 521 38.07% 32.56 81.38% -0.338 -0.3848 -0.478
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 426 37.16% 30.63 77.7% -0.482 -0.2847 -0.178
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4473 101.65% 36.49 100.67% -0.27 -0.4484 0.338
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 107 30.84% 28.4 71.96% 0.323 -0.0981 -0.475
Shifting Memory of Ages 828 100.0% 32.75 100.0% -0.111 0.2523 -0.015
Shroud of Silent Mist 1163 100.0% 31.02 100.0% -0.258 -0.0066 0.125
Starlight Seeks its Form 1116 100.0% 35.97 100.0% 0.339 0.0812 -0.12
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3235 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 0.472 -0.0134 -0.228
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5970 100.0% 35.61 100.0% -0.112 -0.049 0.396
Thunderspeaker 8365 100.65% 38.05 100.37% 0.28 0.2636 0.209
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 86 37.21% 28.76 63.95% -0.203 -0.2868 0.035
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1714 100.0% 33.11 100.0% -0.246 -0.1654 0.086
Vital Strength of the Earth 3208 112.18% 30.38 104.3% -0.083 0.4502 -0.726
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 189 34.05% 33.27 72.49% -0.425 -0.1738 0.078
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 428 32.67% 30.99 79.91% -0.465 0.366 -0.28
Volcano Looming High 1648 100.0% 34.7 100.0% 0.212 0.1768 0.167

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.11%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.57%
Mysterious Abductions 85.53%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.95%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8453 20.49 7.1%
II 41636 31.02 68.82%
III 77967 34.76 92.44%
IV 43976 38.06 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 600
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 70321
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24793
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 43363
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1959
Lose: Invader deck ran out 774
Lose: Adversary condition 10843
Win: Sacrifice victory 265
Lose: Scenario condition 1442
Win: Scenario condition 5593
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11715
Lose: Spirit destroyed 364

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.541 Win Model: -0.163

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.269 Win Model: -0.035
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 99852 25.12% 37.46 85.33%
2 41511 33.09% 33.99 82.67%
3 16677 31.47% 33.75 82.87%
4 12032 29.11% 36.43 82.87%
5 467 19.09% 31.89 87.37%
6 1493 22.31% 33.16 81.45%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)