Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 46 17.39% 26.11 93.48% -0.203 0.2001 -0.555
Blitz 0 1756 27.76% 31.94 80.24% -0.287 0.1283 -0.985
Dahan Insurrection 4 5841 16.33% 62.54 81.73% -0.706 -0.4914 0.443
Despicable Theft 2 205 25.85% 39.18 89.76% -0.394 0.1698 0.638
Elemental Invocation 1 238 34.45% 33.73 80.67% 0.193 0.8219 -0.666
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5124 11.38% 43.49 77.81% -1.062 -0.8242 0.074
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1302 40.32% 35.95 80.41% -0.039 0.3885 -0.393
Rituals of Terror 3 970 42.74% 48.4 75.46% 1.646 1.3142 0.033
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 409 67.73% 39.57 65.53% -0.805 -0.8553 -1.696
Second Wave 0 8768 26.81% 33.6 87.98% -0.567 0.0899 0.265
The Great River 3 147 36.05% 32.04 54.42% 0.279 1.8882 -1.239
Varied Terrains 2 38 39.47% 35.74 89.47% -0.193 0.5546 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 811 37.84% 34.94 65.72% -1.308 -0.4267 -0.882

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 87521 24.83% 37.34 86.63% -0.01 0.6874 0.11
1 Thematic 5052 29.51% 45.2 78.4% -0.209 0.8726 -0.153
2 Archipelago 87 19.77% 68.02 94.25% 0.202 0.1091 0.776
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25334 34.72% 34.16 83.67% 0.012 0.5392 -0.019
2 Coastline 3927 25.47% 35.11 88.24% 0.681 0.9274 0.258
2 Fragment 668 32.4% 29.76 85.33% 0.264 0.6027 -0.212
2 Heart 389 33.78% 29.05 83.29% -0.009 0.4961 0.298
2 Opposite Shores 4993 29.97% 33.99 84.78% -0.572 -0.0121 -0.481
2 Thematic 2020 43.82% 42.81 71.73% 0.852 1.686 -0.46
2 Top to Top 765 29.48% 37.2 85.88% 0.598 0.7887 -0.016
3 Archipelago 56 41.07% 46.57 85.71% 0.421 0.2311 -0.701
3 Coastline 151 25.68% 40.81 90.07% -0.302 -0.7276 1.4
3 Other 671 29.68% 31.48 87.93% 0.49 -0.1814 -0.098
3 Round (Default) 13981 31.53% 34.15 83.96% 0.174 0.4943 -0.234
3 Sunrise 61 32.79% 33.07 78.69% 0.0 0.5632 -0.143
3 Thematic 503 39.64% 36.81 75.35% -0.62 -0.6311 -0.397
4 Archipelago 40 21.05% 39.38 97.5% 0.434 0.4905 0.433
4 Coastline 72 19.44% 36.17 80.56% 0.04 0.1546 1.351
4 Leaf 64 30.65% 32.47 84.38% -0.587 -0.6993 0.505
4 Other 392 36.01% 35.75 86.99% -0.08 -0.724 0.034
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 62.5% 0.0 0.0 -0.61
4 Thematic 1532 38.65% 41.32 74.61% -0.501 -0.4278 -0.189
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9190 27.52% 36.26 84.97% -0.279 -0.2081 -0.04
5 Archipelago 10 40.0% 44.8 90.0% 0.271 -0.0557 0.412
5 Coastline 26 7.69% 59.42 100.0% 0.273 0.0738 0.98
5 Other 378 24.2% 34.87 90.21% -0.363 -0.7702 0.041
5 Thematic 50 46.0% 40.2 84.0% 0.27 0.0851 0.109
6 Archipelago 19 10.53% 42.84 94.74% 0.005 -0.0693 -0.002
6 Coastline 11 0.0% 63.18 100.0% 0.114 -0.6121 0.576
6 Other 121 21.67% 35.71 84.3% 0.214 0.2722 0.073
6 Star 78 20.51% 34.36 85.9% 0.097 0.7267 -0.026
6 Thematic 321 29.78% 34.73 80.69% -0.596 -0.2304 -1.306
6 Two Centers (Default) 573 21.38% 36.62 87.61% -0.128 -0.0477 -0.172
7 Archipelago 5 60.0% 57.8 60.0% -0.723 -0.5664 -0.097
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 6 16.67% 25.0 83.33% 0.256 -0.2127 -0.481

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3324 35.93 61.4% -1.661 0.3233 -0.841
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3033 37.5 63.77% -1.134 0.6286 -0.54
All Things Weaken 1906 35.66 58.29% -1.327 0.6924 -1.035
Back Against the Wall 3045 36.07 60.82% -1.381 0.5492 -0.745
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3207 33.78 59.74% -1.065 1.0699 -0.897
Downward Spiral 5834 34.28 67.43% -1.668 0.3338 -0.921
Erosion of Will 3394 35.29 60.25% -1.14 0.9397 -0.917
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 928 40.84 78.13% -0.563 -0.087 -0.257
Memory Fades to Dust 5838 33.85 64.44% -1.645 0.5132 -0.947
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1926 36.34 61.32% -1.098 0.8785 -0.943
Promising Farmlands 3224 34.02 60.76% -1.411 0.6397 -1.064
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 677 40.64 85.82% -0.123 0.3932 0.216
Thriving Communities 1847 35.61 60.15% -1.267 0.7743 -1.016
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 0.0 -0.817
Unnatural Proliferation 1997 36.47 59.49% -1.666 0.2843 -0.949
Untended Land Crumbles 1892 35.02 59.04% -1.441 0.599 -1.042

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32343 28.68% 34.86 85.2% -0.119 0.6168 -0.073
B 38279 29.6% 36.07 84.86% 0.098 0.7943 0.243
C 35382 28.13% 35.72 85.73% 0.281 0.7545 0.109
D 31694 28.02% 35.15 85.99% -0.08 0.6502 0.127
E 20224 29.89% 37.08 84.26% 0.379 0.9184 0.07
F 32754 27.69% 35.52 85.74% 0.057 0.7389 0.047
G 27976 30.37% 34.48 84.46% 0.125 0.7836 -0.156
H 32741 27.82% 36.77 86.11% 0.196 0.8874 0.33
East 6430 36.12% 42.58 75.46% -0.607 0.0303 -0.442
Northeast 4127 35.42% 41.7 76.16% 0.25 0.9072 -0.45
Northwest 3074 37.49% 40.66 74.69% 0.953 1.582 -0.971
Southeast 1411 34.02% 39.14 78.74% -0.189 0.3413 -0.575
Southwest 1241 41.88% 34.3 70.91% -1.024 -0.0081 -0.969
West 5714 37.11% 43.56 74.9% -0.186 0.6205 0.49

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5269 0.0% 24.64 90.87% -1.092 1.1616 -0.804
Not Using Events or Tokens 19852 18.86% 31.87 91.47% 0.071 0.2754 0.049
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3961 8.32% 38.64 94.37% 0.474 -0.4291 -0.165
Start of Game Growth 6394 11.8% 39.76 91.82% -0.007 -0.4749 -0.043
Unlimited Undo 15496 21.74% 36.09 90.42% 0.641 0.0489 0.615
Using Tokens but Not Events 22142 16.85% 35.71 90.15% -0.004 0.1411 0.31

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5765 100.0% 34.64 100.0% -0.108 -0.1585 -0.102
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3308 100.0% 32.34 100.0% -0.057 0.0092 -0.042
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7538 100.0% 32.37 100.0% 0.319 0.0635 -0.291
Downpour Drenches the World 302 100.0% 33.29 100.0% -0.657 -0.3946 0.121
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7471 100.0% 33.38 100.0% 0.184 -0.3911 -0.275
Finder of Paths Unseen 168 100.0% 32.58 100.0% 0.615 0.9442 0.142
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1567 100.0% 39.91 100.0% 0.383 0.4873 0.165
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 812 100.0% 37.62 100.0% 0.035 -0.0937 0.292
Heart of the Wildfire 3044 100.0% 33.55 100.0% -1.23 -0.8563 -0.398
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8902 100.0% 36.68 100.0% 0.121 -0.4675 0.264
Lightning's Swift Strike 5017 120.38% 32.63 104.74% -0.176 0.179 0.073
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 112 36.04% 36.49 90.18% 0.86 0.1059 0.494
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 701 35.7% 39.92 85.02% 0.283 -0.3192 0.677
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 785 33.33% 39.29 84.46% 0.179 -0.2965 0.527
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2760 100.0% 37.12 100.0% -0.79 -0.9599 -0.139
Many Minds Move as One 2005 100.0% 37.24 100.0% 1.02 0.4737 0.259
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6340 100.0% 37.13 100.0% 0.191 0.02 0.308
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6641 100.0% 32.63 100.0% -0.247 -0.2593 -0.475
River Surges in Sunlight 7530 115.5% 37.74 102.64% -0.083 -0.1749 0.144
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1281 21.37% 31.93 87.9% 0.221 0.6628 -0.177
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 293 33.56% 48.44 84.98% 0.841 0.5507 0.247
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4375 100.0% 37.11 100.0% -0.2 -0.4105 -0.154
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2376 123.03% 29.97 106.99% -0.872 -0.4099 -0.314
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 35 32.35% 36.91 94.29% 0.372 0.5517 0.305
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 53 41.51% 36.43 83.02% -0.493 -0.4219 -0.147
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 464 38.8% 33.77 83.19% 0.35 0.2815 -0.375
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 381 38.63% 31.85 79.79% 0.226 0.3491 -0.293
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4220 100.0% 37.1 100.0% 0.446 0.2626 0.27
Shifting Memory of Ages 667 100.0% 33.99 100.0% -0.108 0.0917 -0.312
Shroud of Silent Mist 1027 100.0% 31.85 100.0% -0.262 -0.068 -0.012
Starlight Seeks its Form 872 100.0% 37.45 100.0% -0.376 -0.498 0.067
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2984 100.0% 35.58 100.0% -0.352 -0.5704 -0.291
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5564 100.0% 36.38 100.0% -0.228 -0.1325 0.412
Thunderspeaker 7750 100.0% 38.69 100.0% 0.264 0.279 0.169
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1593 100.0% 33.58 100.0% -0.088 -0.2941 0.013
Vital Strength of the Earth 3033 110.57% 30.8 103.23% -0.784 0.1219 -0.815
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 120 36.97% 36.4 76.67% 0.516 0.9766 0.057
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 393 33.33% 31.89 82.19% -0.465 0.5445 -0.409
Volcano Looming High 1435 100.0% 35.15 100.0% 0.106 0.0924 -0.024

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.09%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.53%
Mysterious Abductions 85.43%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.86%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6432 22.64 8.68%
II 38348 31.07 69.16%
III 72968 34.65 92.46%
IV 41357 37.9 99.17%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 558
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 65793
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22863
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 40785
Lose: Invader deck ran out 744
Lose: Adversary condition 10150
Win: Sacrifice victory 250
Lose: Scenario condition 1368
Win: Scenario condition 5307
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10942
Lose: Spirit destroyed 345

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.665 Win Model: -0.291

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.173 Win Model: 0.063
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 92847 25.17% 37.87 86.14%
2 38134 33.39% 34.47 83.83%
3 15351 31.59% 34.19 83.89%
4 11351 29.25% 36.92 83.74%
5 315 19.11% 35.72 89.84%
6 1107 23.43% 35.74 85.28%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-16 03:17:35 (Pacific Time)