Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1274 28.42% 32.07 -0.029 80.06% -0.762 -0.1888
Dahan Insurrection 4 4550 16.57% 62.95 -0.011 82.09% -0.336 0.0639
Despicable Theft 2 77 23.38% 37.97 0.014 90.91% -0.081 0.2016
Elemental Invocation 1 122 35.25% 33.02 -0.026 79.51% -0.753 -0.313
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4103 11.65% 43.68 -0.033 78.21% -0.762 -0.3958
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1047 41.95% 35.88 -0.025 78.89% -0.602 -0.1609
Rituals of Terror 3 716 39.1% 40.9 -0.033 78.07% -0.822 -0.1784
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 319 70.25% 40.28 -0.063 65.83% -0.625 0.0172
Second Wave 0 6457 27.73% 33.64 -0.003 87.67% -0.733 -0.3047
The Great River 3 67 35.82% 33.76 -0.172 53.73% -2.766 -1.3068
Ward the Shores 2 636 37.72% 35.47 -0.098 65.09% -1.621 -0.5842

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2470 36.14 -0.11 62.39% -1.694 0.3792
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2191 37.31 -0.104 63.58% -1.639 0.28
All Things Weaken 1207 35.31 -0.134 57.25% -1.947 0.2116
Back Against the Wall 2286 36.24 -0.117 60.85% -1.743 0.351
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2387 33.88 -0.121 60.03% -1.77 0.4544
Downward Spiral 4427 34.77 -0.093 67.61% -1.606 0.4155
Erosion of Will 2523 35.48 -0.123 59.77% -1.804 0.4047
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 571 40.2 -0.033 77.76% -0.801 -0.1084
Memory Fades to Dust 4363 34.24 -0.11 64.43% -1.798 0.42
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1221 36.31 -0.11 61.51% -1.666 0.3548
Promising Farmlands 2415 33.95 -0.117 61.2% -1.783 0.4316
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 412 40.27 0.006 86.89% -0.303 0.1081
Thriving Communities 1186 35.12 -0.118 60.2% -1.755 0.3378
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 -0.108 62.51% -1.623 0.6025
Unnatural Proliferation 1234 35.86 -0.123 59.32% -1.825 0.2641
Untended Land Crumbles 1177 34.81 -0.128 58.28% -1.875 0.2307

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 13288 27.19% 34.66 -0.002 85.23% 0.122 -0.9901
B 16752 29.12% 37.39 0.002 85.15% 0.295 -0.9134
C 15327 26.58% 36.08 0.004 86.36% 0.256 -1.1828
D 13297 27.0% 35.68 0.004 86.46% 0.27 -0.932
E 7484 29.94% 38.14 0.002 84.38% 0.338 -0.9739
F 15027 26.08% 36.68 0.002 86.19% 0.271 -0.9946
G 11718 29.71% 34.52 -0.005 84.47% 0.085 -1.1716
H 15345 26.6% 38.46 0.008 86.72% 0.42 -0.846
East 1390 39.42% 45.17 -0.033 72.81% -0.158 -1.1384
Northeast 1807 31.38% 43.04 -0.027 76.37% -0.319 -1.2505
Northwest 1032 35.63% 40.76 -0.041 72.97% -0.406 -1.4051
Southeast 446 30.86% 40.76 -0.016 78.92% -0.207 -1.2329
Southwest 273 45.96% 32.27 -0.05 71.43% -0.637 -1.257
West 1645 32.94% 49.33 -0.023 78.05% -0.273 -0.9983

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3788 0.0% 24.73 -0.012 90.89% -1.28 0.7739
Not Using Events or Tokens 13516 19.87% 31.97 0.013 90.94% -0.058 0.1594
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3066 9.24% 39.73 0.025 94.13% 0.565 -0.1287
Start of Game Growth 4934 11.62% 40.48 0.019 91.71% 0.32 -0.1428
Unlimited Undo 11570 22.26% 36.62 0.015 89.88% 0.287 -0.1337
Using Tokens but Not Events 16346 17.43% 36.63 0.017 89.75% 0.186 0.1335

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.11%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.58%
Mysterious Abductions 85.4%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.91%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4712 22.34 8.89%
II 27541 30.81 68.91%
III 52642 34.31 92.52%
IV 29936 37.5 99.11%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 419
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 47417
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16102
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 29501
Lose: Invader deck ran out 553
Lose: Adversary condition 7273
Win: Sacrifice victory 182
Lose: Scenario condition 1040
Win: Scenario condition 4149
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7923
Lose: Spirit destroyed 272

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.352
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 67795 24.97% 38.2 86.33%
2 27517 33.42% 34.59 83.48%
3 10953 32.36% 34.44 83.6%
4 8566 29.26% 37.11 83.04%

Power Progression

Score Model: 0.0 Win Model: -0.629
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 109552 37.45 84.91%
Power Progression 5279 25.32 90.0%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)