Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 42 16.67% 26.05 95.24% 0.051 0.5796 -0.543
Blitz 0 1744 27.76% 31.9 80.1% -0.6 -0.3133 -1.043
Dahan Insurrection 4 5787 16.34% 62.6 81.68% -0.944 -0.682 0.435
Despicable Theft 2 200 26.0% 39.13 90.0% 0.027 0.6894 0.634
Elemental Invocation 1 230 34.35% 33.3 80.43% -0.126 0.4467 -0.664
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5049 11.45% 43.57 77.92% -1.176 -1.0064 0.069
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1292 40.56% 35.88 80.26% -0.802 -0.47 -0.397
Rituals of Terror 3 960 42.66% 48.04 75.42% 1.534 0.7981 -0.007
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 404 68.08% 39.53 65.35% -0.559 0.0341 -1.769
Second Wave 0 8642 26.82% 33.56 87.93% -0.592 0.0232 0.254
The Great River 3 144 35.42% 31.82 53.47% 0.075 1.7867 -1.234
Varied Terrains 2 30 46.67% 34.37 86.67% 0.028 0.7612 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 802 37.89% 34.97 65.71% -1.281 -0.2305 -0.875

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 85975 24.77% 37.33 86.65% 0.222 0.6206 0.053
1 Thematic 4999 29.69% 45.24 78.32% -0.123 0.5692 -0.209
2 Archipelago 86 20.0% 68.34 94.19% -0.121 -0.4803 0.742
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24927 34.71% 34.15 83.66% 0.083 0.3953 -0.068
2 Coastline 3857 25.62% 35.16 88.13% 0.316 0.2991 0.2
2 Fragment 658 32.07% 29.76 85.41% 0.688 0.8429 -0.254
2 Heart 383 33.79% 29.09 83.29% 0.147 0.6074 0.261
2 Opposite Shores 4909 29.56% 33.96 84.99% -0.505 -0.1227 -0.506
2 Thematic 1999 43.81% 42.72 71.69% 0.219 0.8307 -0.523
2 Top to Top 751 29.36% 37.18 85.75% -0.156 -0.1131 -0.077
3 Archipelago 51 43.14% 48.43 84.31% 0.256 -0.7007 -0.73
3 Coastline 147 26.39% 40.92 90.48% 0.089 -0.4776 1.333
3 Other 657 30.02% 31.37 87.67% 0.038 -1.025 -0.222
3 Round (Default) 13752 31.45% 34.12 83.94% 0.066 0.2493 -0.274
3 Sunrise 61 32.79% 33.07 78.69% 0.143 0.3626 -0.159
3 Thematic 497 39.72% 36.88 75.45% -0.486 -0.695 -0.419
4 Archipelago 39 21.62% 39.82 97.44% 0.167 -0.0107 0.42
4 Coastline 70 20.0% 36.47 80.0% 0.235 0.3457 1.379
4 Leaf 63 29.51% 32.63 84.13% -0.812 -0.5924 0.5
4 Other 391 36.1% 35.78 86.96% 0.107 -0.6527 -0.0
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 62.5% 0.0 0.0 -0.62
4 Thematic 1512 38.96% 41.33 74.47% -0.519 -0.6028 -0.234
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9091 27.47% 36.29 85.01% -0.173 -0.1928 -0.055
5 Archipelago 9 44.44% 45.44 88.89% 0.119 -0.1333 0.423
5 Coastline 24 8.33% 60.29 100.0% 0.348 0.1116 0.975
5 Other 358 24.72% 35.18 90.22% -0.2 -0.4675 0.134
5 Thematic 49 44.9% 40.47 83.67% 0.438 -0.037 0.124
6 Archipelago 19 10.53% 42.84 94.74% 0.095 -0.225 0.018
6 Coastline 11 0.0% 63.18 100.0% 0.061 -0.6087 0.6
6 Other 110 19.27% 34.81 84.55% 0.129 0.8721 0.064
6 Star 71 22.54% 35.07 84.51% -0.411 0.4856 -0.019
6 Thematic 305 29.37% 34.38 80.33% -0.823 -0.0192 -1.331
6 Two Centers (Default) 514 21.7% 36.74 87.35% -0.569 -0.4998 -0.154
7 Archipelago 4 50.0% 69.25 75.0% 0.527 -0.3218 -0.015
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 4 25.0% 25.0 75.0% 0.095 -0.6484 -0.449

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3265 35.97 61.41% -1.436 0.4992 -0.844
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2986 37.5 63.76% -1.155 0.533 -0.515
All Things Weaken 1850 35.65 58.43% -1.528 0.4485 -1.01
Back Against the Wall 2993 35.94 60.61% -1.75 0.2042 -0.756
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3149 33.72 59.64% -1.491 0.5905 -0.9
Downward Spiral 5754 34.31 67.4% -1.497 0.4692 -0.921
Erosion of Will 3343 35.26 60.16% -1.123 0.9724 -0.927
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 910 40.81 78.02% -0.568 0.0394 -0.266
Memory Fades to Dust 5754 33.84 64.32% -2.07 0.0237 -0.952
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1870 36.3 61.12% -1.336 0.6067 -0.947
Promising Farmlands 3171 33.97 60.64% -1.542 0.5164 -1.069
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 659 40.65 85.89% 0.39 0.8348 0.279
Thriving Communities 1800 35.61 60.11% -1.336 0.7205 -1.021
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 0.7883 -0.82
Unnatural Proliferation 1931 36.32 59.35% -1.679 0.239 -0.958
Untended Land Crumbles 1849 34.9 59.11% -1.295 0.7057 -1.028

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 31780 28.63% 34.86 85.22% 0.204 0.9274 -0.088
B 37682 29.6% 36.07 84.85% -0.036 0.5989 0.225
C 34743 28.16% 35.73 85.68% 0.065 0.5533 0.074
D 31168 28.02% 35.16 85.96% -0.161 0.5467 0.109
E 19566 29.83% 37.01 84.36% 0.306 0.8177 0.035
F 32219 27.63% 35.55 85.74% 0.158 0.8165 0.023
G 27510 30.33% 34.48 84.45% -0.057 0.6284 -0.181
H 32217 27.78% 36.79 86.11% 0.056 0.7028 0.312
East 6334 36.32% 42.57 75.32% -0.829 -0.2253 -0.472
Northeast 4067 35.53% 41.71 76.0% 0.304 0.745 -0.457
Northwest 3028 37.57% 40.66 74.54% 0.199 0.9459 -0.984
Southeast 1369 34.31% 39.02 78.6% -0.145 0.3249 -0.598
Southwest 1207 42.19% 34.17 70.75% -0.256 0.6736 -0.986
West 5638 37.2% 43.58 74.83% -0.566 0.3734 0.476

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5206 0.0% 24.64 90.93% -0.667 1.4731 -0.841
Not Using Events or Tokens 19562 18.81% 31.89 91.45% -0.001 0.2391 0.052
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3915 8.33% 38.62 94.53% 0.871 0.4649 0.16
Start of Game Growth 6328 11.72% 39.77 91.92% 0.014 -0.6014 -0.007
Unlimited Undo 15246 21.79% 36.11 90.4% 0.919 0.269 0.61
Using Tokens but Not Events 21755 16.81% 35.75 90.17% 0.032 0.0842 0.324

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5651 100.0% 34.66 100.0% -0.382 -0.4208 -0.101
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3271 100.0% 32.33 100.0% 0.118 0.2055 -0.027
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7430 100.0% 32.38 100.0% -0.022 -0.2384 -0.292
Downpour Drenches the World 255 100.0% 33.18 100.0% -0.619 -0.2338 0.217
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7361 100.0% 33.39 100.0% -0.215 -0.8189 -0.27
Finder of Paths Unseen 145 100.0% 31.57 100.0% 0.271 0.6557 0.091
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1546 100.0% 39.83 100.0% 0.278 0.3106 0.177
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 774 100.0% 37.58 100.0% 0.356 0.2834 0.244
Heart of the Wildfire 3010 100.0% 33.64 100.0% 0.013 0.3326 -0.376
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8730 100.0% 36.74 100.0% -0.192 -0.8207 0.292
Lightning's Swift Strike 4957 119.91% 32.68 104.66% 0.031 0.3173 0.084
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 87 37.21% 35.06 89.66% 0.528 -0.2638 0.313
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 687 35.21% 40.01 85.3% 1.136 0.5335 0.673
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 766 33.51% 39.1 84.2% -0.27 -0.667 0.464
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2654 100.0% 37.21 100.0% -0.473 -0.7078 -0.064
Many Minds Move as One 1950 100.0% 37.21 100.0% -0.016 -0.5106 0.209
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6231 100.0% 37.1 100.0% 0.064 -0.2407 0.303
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6538 100.0% 32.65 100.0% -0.105 -0.1028 -0.48
River Surges in Sunlight 7464 114.75% 37.75 102.56% -0.144 -0.1656 0.159
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1236 21.48% 31.95 87.62% -0.135 0.2676 -0.23
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 238 31.22% 48.13 84.03% 0.236 0.0152 0.107
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4309 100.0% 37.13 100.0% -0.21 -0.3497 -0.137
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2351 122.51% 29.96 106.85% -0.338 0.1583 -0.305
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 28 29.63% 38.68 96.43% 0.858 0.9758 0.643
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 43 39.53% 37.44 86.05% 0.095 0.0877 0.042
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 459 38.57% 33.71 83.01% -0.102 -0.174 -0.372
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 372 39.04% 31.88 79.57% 1.173 1.3496 -0.322
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4175 100.0% 37.13 100.0% 0.345 0.1049 0.279
Shifting Memory of Ages 634 100.0% 33.8 100.0% -0.361 -0.2458 -0.342
Shroud of Silent Mist 994 100.0% 31.85 100.0% -0.317 -0.1046 0.028
Starlight Seeks its Form 825 100.0% 37.52 100.0% -0.133 -0.332 0.033
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2945 100.0% 35.67 100.0% -0.208 -0.3762 -0.269
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5469 100.0% 36.43 100.0% -0.409 -0.3063 0.478
Thunderspeaker 7612 100.0% 38.69 100.0% 0.347 0.2514 0.156
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1571 100.0% 33.6 100.0% -0.365 -0.5079 0.022
Vital Strength of the Earth 2994 109.78% 30.76 103.07% -1.233 -0.367 -0.804
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 98 41.24% 34.52 73.47% 0.173 0.5765 -0.212
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 378 33.52% 31.93 82.54% -0.064 0.9431 -0.468
Volcano Looming High 1390 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 0.503 0.5468 -0.013

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.09%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.57%
Mysterious Abductions 85.45%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.87%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6341 22.62 8.71%
II 37737 31.05 69.24%
III 71721 34.63 92.46%
IV 40583 37.87 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 552
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 64662
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22504
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 40016
Lose: Invader deck ran out 735
Lose: Adversary condition 9981
Win: Sacrifice victory 248
Lose: Scenario condition 1346
Win: Scenario condition 5254
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10742
Lose: Spirit destroyed 342

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.681 Win Model: -0.273

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.108 Win Model: 0.276
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 91231 25.14% 37.87 86.15%
2 37518 33.34% 34.47 83.84%
3 15103 31.55% 34.15 83.86%
4 11228 29.26% 36.96 83.75%
5 290 19.38% 36.13 89.66%
6 1012 23.35% 35.65 84.98%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-02 02:58:54 (Pacific Time)