Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1359 28.56% 32.09 -0.028 80.28% -0.762 -0.1926
Dahan Insurrection 4 4791 16.17% 63.24 -0.011 82.3% -0.361 0.037
Despicable Theft 2 96 26.04% 37.33 0.019 91.67% -0.053 0.2163
Elemental Invocation 1 147 35.37% 32.59 -0.027 79.59% -0.773 -0.3082
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4312 11.37% 43.55 -0.034 78.36% -0.786 -0.42
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1082 41.84% 35.97 -0.024 79.21% -0.587 -0.1424
Rituals of Terror 3 742 38.4% 40.86 -0.033 78.3% -0.823 -0.1783
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 328 70.46% 39.95 -0.065 65.55% -0.67 -0.0252
Second Wave 0 6685 27.6% 33.68 -0.002 87.91% -0.706 -0.2772
The Great River 3 87 36.78% 32.23 -0.174 52.87% -2.904 -1.4409
Ward the Shores 2 657 37.73% 35.44 -0.095 65.6% -1.591 -0.5576

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 67105 24.68% 37.62 0.008 86.89% -0.787 -0.6142
1 Thematic 4254 29.41% 45.77 -0.024 77.79% -0.987 -0.6249
2 Archipelago 27 0.0% 95.93 0.092 100.0% 0.984 1.2105
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 19461 34.87% 34.26 -0.007 83.25% -0.575 -0.5236
2 Coastline 2873 26.95% 34.9 0.009 87.43% -0.391 -0.3838
2 Fragment 537 31.35% 29.34 -0.01 84.17% -0.85 -0.594
2 Heart 297 30.45% 29.12 -0.016 83.5% -1.124 -0.9819
2 Opposite Shores 3789 28.47% 33.82 -0.001 85.85% -0.649 -0.5587
2 Thematic 1509 42.17% 40.08 -0.041 72.37% -0.776 -0.8171
2 Top to Top 560 27.81% 37.82 0.007 86.61% -0.298 -0.3291
3 Archipelago 14 28.57% 70.0 0.001 85.71% -0.005 1.0769
3 Coastline 103 24.0% 41.54 0.023 89.32% 0.559 0.3607
3 Other 487 31.8% 32.7 0.013 88.3% -0.064 0.11
3 Round (Default) 10604 32.07% 34.32 -0.001 83.75% -0.066 -0.1398
3 Sunrise 47 36.17% 32.45 -0.048 74.47% -0.964 -1.2399
3 Thematic 354 41.93% 37.18 -0.031 74.86% -0.38 -0.7816
4 Archipelago 7 14.29% 41.71 0.064 100.0% 0.669 1.1772
4 Coastline 29 17.24% 37.38 -0.003 79.31% 0.259 0.309
4 Leaf 45 30.23% 34.93 0.025 88.89% 0.816 0.7879
4 Other 319 36.42% 37.56 0.019 86.83% 0.662 0.5483
4 Reverse Snake 5 20.0% 33.6 0.061 100.0% 0.321 -0.5332
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 -0.075 62.5% -0.337 -0.283
4 Thematic 1290 37.99% 41.41 -0.017 75.43% 0.38 -0.7044
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7365 27.63% 36.33 0.003 84.44% 0.292 0.2056
5 Archipelago 2 0.0% 50.5 0.048 100.0% 0.043 0.9197
5 Other 94 35.11% 40.98 0.064 95.74% 1.722 1.1185
5 Thematic 13 53.85% 42.46 0.102 100.0% 1.385 -1.3779
6 Archipelago 1 100.0% 55.0 0.089 100.0% 0.136 0.8682

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2602 36.12 -0.11 62.53% -1.704 0.369
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2300 37.32 -0.104 63.52% -1.647 0.2714
All Things Weaken 1296 35.28 -0.133 57.48% -1.952 0.2182
Back Against the Wall 2366 36.31 -0.116 61.07% -1.746 0.3451
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2514 33.77 -0.122 59.94% -1.792 0.4329
Downward Spiral 4661 34.6 -0.093 67.65% -1.621 0.4016
Erosion of Will 2662 35.23 -0.123 59.92% -1.818 0.391
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 614 40.0 -0.035 77.52% -0.845 -0.1584
Memory Fades to Dust 4612 34.12 -0.11 64.4% -1.812 0.4065
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1315 36.09 -0.111 61.37% -1.693 0.3305
Promising Farmlands 2547 33.84 -0.118 61.05% -1.808 0.4056
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 440 40.14 0.005 86.82% -0.346 0.0641
Thriving Communities 1268 34.99 -0.118 60.25% -1.764 0.3311
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 -0.108 62.51% -1.628 0.598
Unnatural Proliferation 1326 36.07 -0.121 59.58% -1.809 0.2776
Untended Land Crumbles 1274 34.51 -0.13 57.93% -1.912 0.194

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 14040 27.29% 34.63 -0.002 85.29% 0.124 -0.6362
B 17620 29.24% 37.28 0.002 85.11% 0.29 -0.5674
C 16215 26.54% 36.02 0.004 86.48% 0.263 -0.8253
D 13975 27.04% 35.67 0.004 86.5% 0.276 -0.5737
E 8097 29.4% 38.04 0.003 84.77% 0.353 -0.612
F 15862 26.11% 36.55 0.002 86.22% 0.269 -0.645
G 12341 29.73% 34.43 -0.006 84.47% 0.087 -0.818
H 16155 26.53% 38.47 0.008 86.78% 0.425 -0.4888
East 1432 39.94% 44.99 -0.034 72.63% -0.154 -0.803
Northeast 1871 31.11% 43.0 -0.026 76.75% -0.296 -0.8947
Northwest 1059 35.57% 40.77 -0.041 73.18% -0.393 -1.0631
Southeast 472 31.49% 40.43 -0.017 78.81% -0.211 -0.9168
Southwest 332 52.87% 30.74 -0.077 62.35% -0.741 -1.0144
West 1729 32.5% 50.19 -0.02 78.6% -0.229 -0.6276

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4018 0.0% 24.61 -0.012 90.89% -1.276 0.7801
Not Using Events or Tokens 14569 19.88% 32.02 0.013 90.95% -0.059 0.1564
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3168 9.22% 39.54 0.025 94.19% 0.574 -0.1129
Start of Game Growth 5137 11.74% 40.36 0.019 91.69% 0.314 -0.1563
Unlimited Undo 12144 22.35% 36.44 0.015 89.92% 0.284 -0.1357
Using Tokens but Not Events 17270 17.23% 36.41 0.017 89.92% 0.175 0.1231

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 4238 27.01% 34.81 -0.002 84.1% -0.139 -0.025
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2656 41.18% 32.33 -0.013 81.29% -0.312 -0.1062
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 5781 28.19% 32.84 0.002 85.45% -0.05 -0.1553
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5798 26.38% 33.7 0.003 85.67% 0.004 -0.2862
Fractured Days Split the Sky 983 29.59% 39.85 0.012 85.66% 0.234 0.5877
Heart of the Wildfire 2524 52.64% 33.83 -0.027 75.16% -0.18 0.1476
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6790 27.17% 36.66 0.008 85.49% 0.153 -0.1771
Lightning's Swift Strike 4857 32.06% 34.25 -0.0 84.5% -0.042 0.194
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1380 35.38% 38.49 0.008 83.91% 0.325 0.0372
Many Minds Move as One 1313 30.07% 38.22 0.017 87.97% 0.297 -0.2335
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 4828 30.73% 37.2 0.004 83.89% 0.193 -0.0216
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 5155 30.52% 32.69 -0.006 83.53% -0.184 -0.1598
River Surges in Sunlight 6582 28.67% 37.27 -0.003 83.73% -0.089 0.0416
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3343 32.89% 37.23 -0.007 81.69% -0.038 0.0767
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2523 41.08% 30.94 -0.016 81.01% -0.385 0.0315
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3374 31.3% 37.34 0.001 83.58% 0.086 -0.0113
Shifting Memory of Ages 120 40.83% 34.52 0.012 86.67% 0.138 0.2291
Shroud of Silent Mist 486 37.92% 33.01 0.003 84.57% 0.004 0.0333
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2194 36.84% 35.37 -0.013 79.12% -0.111 -0.1594
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4146 25.66% 37.11 0.006 86.08% 0.072 0.246
Thunderspeaker 5887 31.71% 38.92 -0.001 83.27% 0.09 0.1222
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1222 54.0% 33.63 -0.017 76.68% -0.036 -0.0539
Vital Strength of the Earth 2681 30.75% 31.26 -0.02 80.64% -0.45 0.4034
Volcano Looming High 680 42.22% 35.0 -0.007 81.03% 0.003 -0.0153

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.1%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.6%
Mysterious Abductions 85.4%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.92%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4912 22.35 8.96%
II 29126 30.84 69.1%
III 55548 34.35 92.47%
IV 31614 37.52 99.1%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 440
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 50012
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17084
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 31158
Lose: Invader deck ran out 583
Lose: Adversary condition 7614
Win: Sacrifice victory 190
Lose: Scenario condition 1101
Win: Scenario condition 4374
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8362
Lose: Spirit destroyed 282

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.825 Win Model: -0.254

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.002 Win Model: -0.353
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 71425 24.98% 38.13 86.35%
2 29101 33.4% 34.52 83.58%
3 11582 32.27% 34.37 83.66%
4 9092 29.37% 37.12 83.32%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.0 Win Model: -0.63
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 115516 37.4 84.96%
Power Progression 5684 25.23 89.97%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)