Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 89 21.35% 25.46 83.15% 0.012 -0.1771 -0.91
Blitz 0 1835 27.67% 31.56 79.56% -0.423 -0.2391 -0.9
Dahan Insurrection 4 6151 16.01% 61.81 81.47% -0.04 -0.3544 0.491
Despicable Theft 2 242 25.62% 37.71 85.54% -0.587 0.1574 0.364
Elemental Invocation 1 283 33.22% 32.44 78.8% -0.509 0.2626 -0.776
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5355 11.34% 43.36 77.55% 0.413 -0.2077 0.138
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1364 39.66% 35.41 79.11% -1.089 -0.547 -0.407
Rituals of Terror 3 1029 43.3% 48.57 74.73% -0.448 -0.341 0.138
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 427 66.27% 39.0 64.87% -1.041 -0.0697 -1.564
Second Wave 0 9387 26.82% 33.41 87.64% 0.286 0.3537 0.279
The Great River 3 168 34.52% 29.64 50.0% -2.473 -1.1754 -1.26
Varied Terrains 2 71 42.25% 35.68 81.69% -0.455 0.1187 -0.488
Ward the Shores 2 855 37.76% 34.51 65.03% -0.444 0.6898 -0.852

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 93854 24.79% 36.97 85.85% 0.32 0.4325 0.202
1 Thematic 5220 29.24% 44.92 78.3% 0.04 0.604 -0.07
2 Archipelago 96 22.11% 66.74 93.75% 1.397 1.7214 0.938
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27419 34.34% 33.68 82.56% 0.137 0.2315 -0.038
2 Coastline 4338 25.03% 34.7 87.16% 0.271 0.2119 0.212
2 Fragment 712 32.5% 29.31 84.13% -0.185 -0.3385 -0.184
2 Heart 429 34.71% 29.43 82.98% 0.763 0.4411 0.522
2 Opposite Shores 5413 30.19% 33.76 83.95% 0.195 0.2551 -0.414
2 Thematic 2179 43.38% 42.27 70.77% -0.32 0.2391 -0.415
2 Top to Top 820 30.36% 36.69 84.88% 0.373 0.296 -0.076
3 Archipelago 59 38.98% 45.81 86.44% 0.3 -1.2992 -0.66
3 Coastline 162 23.9% 39.66 87.65% 0.089 -0.3569 1.004
3 Other 729 29.15% 30.69 85.6% -0.422 0.1148 -0.185
3 Round (Default) 15119 31.42% 33.79 83.19% 0.282 0.1223 -0.246
3 Sunrise 63 33.33% 32.7 77.78% -0.129 0.0386 -0.14
3 Thematic 533 39.66% 35.87 73.55% -0.96 -0.8939 -0.668
4 Archipelago 45 27.91% 39.62 93.33% -0.21 -0.8661 0.426
4 Coastline 78 17.95% 35.17 80.77% 0.035 0.2596 1.4
4 Leaf 74 30.56% 30.8 83.78% 0.09 -0.4503 0.463
4 Other 417 36.1% 35.17 86.33% 0.757 -0.3594 0.061
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% 0.0 -0.388 -0.592
4 Thematic 1597 38.77% 41.19 74.01% -0.141 -0.3144 -0.335
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9744 27.43% 35.77 84.04% -0.102 -0.3038 -0.098
5 Archipelago 12 41.67% 40.33 83.33% -0.793 -1.933 0.468
5 Coastline 33 9.09% 53.52 93.94% -0.251 -0.6901 0.686
5 Other 500 22.31% 32.36 89.0% 0.578 0.1129 0.338
5 Thematic 56 42.86% 38.98 80.36% -0.73 -0.7057 0.096
6 Archipelago 24 12.5% 37.71 83.33% -0.819 -0.4499 0.023
6 Coastline 13 7.69% 55.38 92.31% 0.129 -0.4902 0.358
6 Other 166 21.47% 33.55 80.72% -0.447 -0.8151 0.017
6 Star 104 24.04% 32.02 86.54% 0.523 0.7 -0.044
6 Thematic 415 28.81% 32.48 75.9% -0.678 -0.2059 -1.454
6 Two Centers (Default) 767 19.26% 34.04 84.62% -0.244 -0.1623 -0.083
7 Archipelago 8 50.0% 44.88 62.5% -0.445 -0.5493 -0.149
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 12 16.67% 19.25 58.33% -0.025 -0.788 -0.252

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3510 35.78 61.14% -0.324 -0.1257 -0.748
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3214 37.37 63.6% 0.207 0.1409 -0.472
All Things Weaken 2076 35.16 57.32% -0.634 -0.2667 -0.976
Attenuated Essence 64 28.17 48.44% -0.266 -0.1952 -1.453
Back Against the Wall 3199 36.0 60.74% -0.039 0.03 -0.641
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 60 29.12 41.67% -0.574 -0.3172 -1.845
Burn Brightest Before the End 69 35.07 52.17% -0.404 -0.2293 -0.438
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3368 33.71 59.65% -0.086 0.3523 -0.79
Downward Spiral 6136 34.18 67.19% -0.255 -0.0085 -0.833
Erosion of Will 3556 35.09 60.12% -0.204 0.1141 -0.817
Intensifying Exploitation 63 27.06 42.86% -0.485 -0.2153 -1.7
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1030 40.33 78.16% 0.766 0.2569 -0.193
Memory Fades to Dust 6167 33.63 64.03% -0.624 -0.2602 -0.877
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2093 35.86 60.63% -0.578 -0.3413 -0.864
Promising Farmlands 3414 33.93 60.57% -0.258 0.2028 -0.957
Shattered Fragments of Power 50 30.92 58.0% 0.005 0.0601 -0.816
Slow Dissolution of Will 63 29.38 42.86% -0.481 -0.073 -1.389
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 724 40.63 85.64% 1.314 0.672 0.324
The Border of Life and Death 14 38.36 78.57% 0.851 0.4638 -0.733
Thriving Communities 2032 35.48 59.99% -0.398 -0.0402 -0.917
Thriving Crops 32 35.31 65.63% 0.373 0.2576 0.067
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 -0.1815 -0.715
Unnatural Proliferation 2177 36.5 59.03% -0.341 -0.1681 -0.853
Untended Land Crumbles 2068 34.82 58.51% -0.455 -0.2071 -0.979

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 35004 28.57% 34.4 84.18% -0.426 0.4074 -0.1
B 41176 29.39% 35.56 84.03% -0.525 0.2748 0.252
C 38176 28.0% 35.27 84.87% -0.259 0.3978 0.095
D 34294 27.79% 34.67 85.1% -0.27 0.524 0.113
E 22712 29.53% 36.38 83.01% -0.101 0.5269 0.092
F 35403 27.48% 35.05 84.77% -0.238 0.4754 0.034
G 30194 30.12% 34.0 83.48% -0.433 0.3049 -0.146
H 35279 27.7% 36.27 85.19% -0.156 0.503 0.313
East 6870 35.74% 41.99 74.61% -0.226 0.3821 -0.33
Northeast 4418 35.0% 41.08 75.33% -0.094 0.6549 -0.389
Northwest 3299 37.08% 39.95 73.78% -0.422 0.394 -0.945
Southeast 1590 33.33% 37.92 76.48% -0.741 -0.0125 -0.586
Southwest 1415 40.4% 33.0 68.9% -0.427 0.6384 -1.006
West 6077 36.92% 42.81 74.08% -0.237 0.7126 0.514

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5599 0.0% 24.32 89.34% -1.023 -0.2096 -0.524
Not Using Events or Tokens 21185 18.71% 31.57 90.64% 0.097 0.4332 0.045
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4203 8.21% 38.17 93.24% 0.504 -0.1292 0.021
Start of Game Growth 6830 11.61% 39.04 90.59% -0.318 -0.6075 -0.105
Unlimited Undo 16791 21.94% 35.61 88.93% -0.246 -0.2432 0.494
Using Tokens but Not Events 24102 16.85% 35.2 89.39% 0.446 0.3719 0.299

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6201 100.0% 34.33 100.0% 0.436 0.2858 0.001
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3540 100.0% 31.93 100.0% -0.196 -0.0726 0.022
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 8137 100.0% 31.78 100.0% -0.034 -0.1895 -0.22
Downpour Drenches the World 496 100.0% 30.99 100.0% 0.128 0.3166 -0.04
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 449 100.0% 28.49 100.0% 0.403 -0.4299 -0.822
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 8017 100.0% 33.07 100.0% -0.085 -0.5697 -0.166
Finder of Paths Unseen 253 100.0% 29.93 100.0% -0.144 0.5245 0.282
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1692 100.0% 39.26 100.0% -0.082 0.5391 0.319
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1015 100.0% 35.57 100.0% 0.111 0.0207 0.243
Heart of the Wildfire 3290 100.0% 33.03 100.0% -0.048 0.2015 -0.429
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9560 100.0% 36.15 100.0% -0.034 -0.4601 0.313
Lightning's Swift Strike 5405 121.94% 31.98 106.11% -0.319 -0.0937 0.146
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 212 36.67% 34.19 78.3% -0.133 -0.7683 0.385
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 779 35.77% 38.27 82.8% -0.327 -0.4748 0.742
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 865 32.58% 38.22 82.66% 0.193 0.072 0.482
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3091 100.0% 36.2 100.0% 0.053 -0.0868 -0.152
Many Minds Move as One 2190 100.0% 36.57 100.0% 0.292 0.0953 0.276
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6803 100.0% 36.62 100.0% 0.202 0.2075 0.352
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 7146 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.043 -0.098 -0.328
River Surges in Sunlight 7995 118.14% 37.17 103.71% 0.318 0.3839 0.216
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1445 20.6% 31.39 87.13% 0.071 0.3063 -0.224
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 526 33.91% 43.02 78.9% 0.426 0.3078 0.08
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4623 100.0% 36.78 100.0% 0.134 -0.1085 -0.054
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2509 126.38% 29.44 108.89% -1.001 -0.4967 -0.254
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 68 30.3% 31.74 83.82% 0.285 0.2294 -0.004
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 93 31.87% 31.94 75.27% 0.107 0.0745 -0.16
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 515 38.52% 32.66 81.55% -0.257 -0.31 -0.437
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 423 37.19% 30.67 77.78% -0.562 -0.433 -0.19
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4451 101.64% 36.53 100.67% -0.335 -0.4773 0.331
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 106 31.13% 27.93 71.7% 0.204 -0.2459 -0.492
Shifting Memory of Ages 823 100.0% 32.82 100.0% -0.007 0.3771 -0.033
Shroud of Silent Mist 1159 100.0% 31.12 100.0% -0.042 0.2415 0.106
Starlight Seeks its Form 1102 100.0% 36.24 100.0% 0.358 0.1236 -0.141
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3219 100.0% 35.18 100.0% 0.385 -0.1156 -0.228
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5954 100.0% 35.64 100.0% -0.1 -0.0514 0.387
Thunderspeaker 8328 100.61% 38.1 100.36% 0.332 0.3236 0.212
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 82 37.8% 27.82 63.41% -0.09 -0.2153 0.036
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1710 100.0% 33.1 100.0% -0.364 -0.2818 0.067
Vital Strength of the Earth 3204 112.11% 30.4 104.12% -0.177 0.3726 -0.73
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 185 34.62% 33.84 73.51% -0.11 0.1178 0.14
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 424 32.17% 31.21 80.42% -0.423 0.4522 -0.219
Volcano Looming High 1637 100.0% 34.71 100.0% 0.263 0.2458 0.138

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.11%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.57%
Mysterious Abductions 85.52%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.94%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8285 20.63 7.22%
II 41430 31.02 68.85%
III 77708 34.75 92.46%
IV 43847 38.05 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 598
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 70099
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24683
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 43237
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1778
Lose: Invader deck ran out 771
Lose: Adversary condition 10807
Win: Sacrifice victory 263
Lose: Scenario condition 1434
Win: Scenario condition 5567
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11672
Lose: Spirit destroyed 361

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.555 Win Model: -0.162

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.281 Win Model: -0.089
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 99415 25.12% 37.49 85.4%
2 41326 33.11% 34.03 82.8%
3 16596 31.47% 33.8 83.01%
4 12001 29.15% 36.46 82.93%
5 459 18.32% 32.0 87.15%
6 1473 22.34% 33.26 81.67%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)