Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 16.67% 26.56 94.44% 0.382 0.4755 -0.513
Blitz 0 1709 27.47% 31.96 80.34% -0.184 0.0593 -0.859
Dahan Insurrection 4 5708 16.37% 62.68 81.74% -1.328 -1.0442 0.434
Despicable Theft 2 197 25.38% 39.08 89.85% -0.364 -0.1483 0.617
Elemental Invocation 1 224 33.48% 33.2 80.36% -0.238 0.3663 -0.678
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4987 11.53% 43.6 77.94% -0.639 -0.4656 0.067
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1271 41.0% 35.89 80.09% -0.504 -0.2105 -0.389
Rituals of Terror 3 945 42.71% 47.92 75.34% 0.016 -0.011 -0.034
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 395 67.86% 39.68 65.32% 0.108 0.6848 -1.783
Second Wave 0 8464 26.87% 33.53 87.98% -0.597 -0.135 0.25
The Great River 3 141 36.17% 31.09 52.48% -0.227 1.2399 -1.473
Varied Terrains 2 19 36.84% 36.74 89.47% -0.42 0.132 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 795 37.97% 35.03 65.66% -1.295 -0.1039 -0.868

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 84049 24.73% 37.33 86.69% 0.022 0.466 0.037
1 Thematic 4947 29.7% 45.35 78.27% -0.318 0.258 -0.236
2 Archipelago 83 19.51% 69.12 93.98% 0.529 1.1637 0.715
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24459 34.72% 34.16 83.58% -0.023 0.3496 -0.065
2 Coastline 3752 25.83% 35.0 87.93% -0.043 0.0406 0.195
2 Fragment 641 31.98% 29.58 85.18% 0.113 0.1229 -0.318
2 Heart 371 33.24% 29.05 83.29% -0.043 0.2107 0.373
2 Opposite Shores 4803 29.29% 33.95 85.43% -0.242 0.2335 -0.443
2 Thematic 1977 44.0% 42.59 71.62% 0.395 0.7788 -0.538
2 Top to Top 728 29.56% 37.1 85.71% -0.831 -0.5293 -0.084
3 Archipelago 45 42.22% 50.96 82.22% -0.584 -1.071 -0.736
3 Coastline 144 26.95% 41.25 90.28% 0.183 -0.3717 1.376
3 Other 647 29.81% 31.5 87.64% 0.587 -0.4488 -0.198
3 Round (Default) 13480 31.51% 34.11 83.89% -0.094 0.1991 -0.271
3 Sunrise 61 32.79% 33.07 78.69% 0.438 0.2111 -0.146
3 Thematic 476 39.37% 36.89 75.84% -0.361 -0.7514 -0.304
4 Archipelago 34 18.75% 37.74 97.06% 0.069 -0.787 0.0
4 Coastline 67 20.9% 35.3 79.1% 0.297 0.1995 0.991
4 Leaf 62 28.33% 33.02 85.48% 0.053 0.293 0.519
4 Other 387 36.22% 35.91 87.08% 0.603 0.1566 0.037
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 62.5% 0.0 0.0 -0.607
4 Thematic 1488 39.19% 41.42 74.33% -0.885 -0.8488 -0.224
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8972 27.44% 36.29 85.03% 0.267 0.1106 -0.026
5 Archipelago 9 44.44% 45.44 88.89% 0.018 -0.4004 0.313
5 Coastline 22 4.55% 59.68 100.0% 0.353 -0.1683 0.887
5 Other 329 25.91% 35.81 90.58% 0.417 0.7653 0.286
5 Thematic 47 44.68% 40.83 82.98% -0.598 -0.7181 0.135
6 Archipelago 18 11.11% 43.89 94.44% 0.103 -0.4132 0.014
6 Coastline 10 0.0% 66.6 100.0% 0.056 -0.4019 0.614
6 Other 101 20.0% 34.57 83.17% -0.276 0.5131 0.014
6 Star 64 21.88% 35.5 85.94% 0.42 1.1515 -0.167
6 Thematic 272 27.04% 33.74 82.35% -0.345 -0.1672 -1.198
6 Two Centers (Default) 472 21.72% 36.9 87.71% -0.766 -0.4031 -0.058
7 Archipelago 4 50.0% 69.25 75.0% 0.492 -0.3437 0.06
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 3 33.33% 23.33 66.67% 0.222 -0.5299 -0.454

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3220 35.95 61.46% -1.499 0.3297 -0.841
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2917 37.5 63.63% -1.213 0.4302 -0.52
All Things Weaken 1791 35.67 58.18% -1.808 0.1697 -1.035
Back Against the Wall 2925 35.94 60.65% -1.892 -0.0403 -0.762
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3094 33.71 59.57% -1.56 0.4184 -0.905
Downward Spiral 5639 34.33 67.42% -1.686 0.2137 -0.916
Erosion of Will 3281 35.16 59.92% -1.408 0.6727 -0.947
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 876 40.73 78.31% -1.006 -0.4672 -0.268
Memory Fades to Dust 5647 33.88 64.44% -1.978 0.0021 -0.952
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1819 36.15 60.86% -1.489 0.4014 -0.999
Promising Farmlands 3123 34.01 60.71% -1.627 0.3814 -1.075
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 632 40.47 85.76% -0.149 0.2963 0.33
Thriving Communities 1739 35.5 60.15% -1.528 0.4436 -1.036
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 0.4835 -0.817
Unnatural Proliferation 1869 36.49 59.55% -1.143 0.749 -0.963
Untended Land Crumbles 1784 34.74 58.97% -1.248 0.7756 -1.057

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 31125 28.65% 34.86 85.2% 0.436 1.2108 -0.082
B 36956 29.57% 36.09 84.88% 0.165 0.8676 0.232
C 34023 28.13% 35.72 85.67% -0.04 0.5245 0.074
D 30537 28.05% 35.17 85.99% -0.177 0.5887 0.119
E 18854 29.98% 36.95 84.35% 0.335 0.9409 0.029
F 31536 27.65% 35.52 85.69% 0.134 0.8408 0.015
G 26957 30.34% 34.49 84.43% -0.278 0.4513 -0.18
H 31580 27.76% 36.81 86.13% -0.184 0.4908 0.312
East 6208 36.33% 42.65 75.32% -0.511 0.1498 -0.462
Northeast 3987 35.54% 41.73 75.95% -0.143 0.5601 -0.455
Northwest 2962 37.49% 40.62 74.51% -0.62 0.4392 -0.99
Southeast 1301 34.26% 39.01 78.71% 0.03 0.7741 -0.558
Southwest 1152 42.04% 34.1 71.09% -1.35 -0.341 -1.011
West 5524 37.17% 43.67 74.86% -0.219 0.8497 0.493

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5115 0.0% 24.61 90.87% -1.219 0.7982 -0.941
Not Using Events or Tokens 19126 18.83% 31.9 91.43% 0.346 0.5645 0.057
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3819 8.48% 38.61 94.53% 1.103 0.9916 0.07
Start of Game Growth 6196 11.81% 39.79 91.91% 0.268 -0.4336 0.007
Unlimited Undo 14960 21.84% 36.1 90.35% 0.744 0.0496 0.609
Using Tokens but Not Events 21278 16.67% 35.8 90.3% 0.614 0.5568 0.355

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5542 100.0% 34.66 100.0% -0.161 -0.2959 -0.079
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3213 100.0% 32.25 100.0% -0.033 0.0004 -0.061
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7286 100.0% 32.4 100.0% -0.169 -0.3069 -0.275
Downpour Drenches the World 197 100.0% 32.7 100.0% -0.651 -0.3182 0.06
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7223 100.0% 33.4 100.0% -0.147 -0.7285 -0.242
Finder of Paths Unseen 124 100.0% 30.73 100.0% -0.462 -0.0702 -0.049
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1509 100.0% 39.71 100.0% 0.22 0.2647 0.219
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 707 100.0% 37.64 100.0% 0.715 0.7105 0.486
Heart of the Wildfire 2970 100.0% 33.66 100.0% -0.214 0.0255 -0.358
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8576 100.0% 36.77 100.0% -0.015 -0.5312 0.311
Lightning's Swift Strike 4895 119.22% 32.71 104.49% 0.21 0.4449 0.121
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 57 33.93% 34.46 92.98% 0.513 -0.3486 0.342
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 661 34.92% 39.98 85.02% 0.846 0.2484 0.675
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 742 33.65% 38.97 84.23% 0.416 0.0789 0.536
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2570 100.0% 37.24 100.0% -0.035 -0.2576 -0.031
Many Minds Move as One 1876 100.0% 37.34 100.0% -0.631 -1.2128 0.244
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6123 100.0% 37.08 100.0% -0.062 -0.363 0.335
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6409 100.0% 32.59 100.0% -0.102 -0.1113 -0.473
River Surges in Sunlight 7374 113.81% 37.83 102.35% -0.127 -0.0696 0.177
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1187 22.22% 32.02 87.45% -0.353 0.0044 -0.167
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 178 28.25% 47.4 86.52% 0.46 0.2029 0.145
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4228 100.0% 37.15 100.0% -0.194 -0.2116 -0.137
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2321 121.7% 29.97 106.81% -0.787 -0.3426 -0.293
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 21 35.0% 37.76 95.24% 0.941 1.0419 0.346
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 32 46.88% 35.13 87.5% 0.756 0.5768 -0.123
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 447 38.62% 33.81 82.77% 0.241 0.2142 -0.307
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 366 39.14% 31.8 79.23% 0.102 0.3012 -0.283
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4099 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 0.221 -0.0575 0.273
Shifting Memory of Ages 599 100.0% 34.0 100.0% -0.161 -0.1352 -0.282
Shroud of Silent Mist 950 100.0% 31.93 100.0% -0.74 -0.4767 0.062
Starlight Seeks its Form 754 100.0% 37.65 100.0% -0.072 -0.2647 -0.012
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2886 100.0% 35.62 100.0% -0.635 -0.8074 -0.231
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5366 100.0% 36.49 100.0% -0.233 -0.1275 0.506
Thunderspeaker 7459 100.0% 38.71 100.0% 0.394 0.3608 0.184
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1531 100.0% 33.66 100.0% 0.092 0.051 0.054
Vital Strength of the Earth 2952 109.15% 30.8 102.91% -0.494 0.2955 -0.779
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 68 38.81% 32.16 70.59% -0.472 -0.014 -0.574
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 371 34.19% 31.99 82.21% 0.048 1.0966 -0.444
Volcano Looming High 1330 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 0.786 0.7999 0.015

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.1%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.59%
Mysterious Abductions 85.49%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.88%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6193 22.6 8.74%
II 36944 31.02 69.3%
III 70191 34.58 92.44%
IV 39721 37.82 99.15%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 541
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 63262
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22018
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 39160
Lose: Invader deck ran out 714
Lose: Adversary condition 9722
Win: Sacrifice victory 243
Lose: Scenario condition 1329
Win: Scenario condition 5188
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10532
Lose: Spirit destroyed 340

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.62 Win Model: -0.276

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.141 Win Model: 0.091
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 89240 25.09% 37.88 86.18%
2 36763 33.35% 34.45 83.8%
3 14797 31.6% 34.16 83.81%
4 11074 29.27% 36.97 83.75%
5 255 20.39% 36.85 89.8%
6 920 22.53% 35.58 85.76%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)