Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 25 16.0% 27.84 96.0% 0.47 0.2682 -0.405
Blitz 0 1690 27.53% 31.99 80.3% -0.033 0.2245 -0.829
Dahan Insurrection 4 5656 16.38% 62.72 81.88% -1.012 -0.5991 0.449
Despicable Theft 2 186 25.27% 38.99 89.78% -0.471 -0.0248 0.675
Elemental Invocation 1 219 32.88% 33.25 80.37% -0.591 -0.1052 -0.679
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4940 11.5% 43.62 77.98% -0.606 -0.3007 0.056
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1260 41.12% 35.96 80.16% 0.25 0.4318 -0.391
Rituals of Terror 3 933 42.61% 47.6 75.56% 0.506 0.6275 -0.046
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 394 68.03% 39.67 65.23% 0.116 0.5315 -1.791
Second Wave 0 8340 26.85% 33.53 88.0% -0.521 0.0452 0.205
The Great River 3 141 36.17% 31.09 52.48% -0.501 0.8966 -1.481
Varied Terrains 2 16 37.5% 36.63 87.5% -0.303 0.2232 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 789 38.14% 35.05 65.65% -1.05 0.1116 -0.841

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 82885 24.73% 37.34 86.69% -0.307 0.7095 -0.157
1 Thematic 4919 29.66% 45.39 78.27% -0.628 0.5443 -0.454
2 Archipelago 80 20.25% 70.51 95.0% 0.813 1.7961 0.776
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24129 34.8% 34.16 83.55% -0.127 0.6242 -0.161
2 Coastline 3692 25.94% 34.97 87.92% 0.378 0.9801 0.099
2 Fragment 634 32.02% 29.59 85.17% -0.507 -0.0595 -0.451
2 Heart 368 32.95% 29.04 83.42% -0.252 0.2864 0.209
2 Opposite Shores 4738 29.16% 33.95 85.48% -0.554 0.4388 -0.545
2 Thematic 1949 43.76% 42.46 71.73% 0.457 1.1555 -0.662
2 Top to Top 714 29.44% 37.13 85.99% -0.569 -0.0592 -0.103
3 Archipelago 45 42.22% 50.96 82.22% -0.209 -0.0354 -0.777
3 Coastline 144 26.95% 41.25 90.28% 0.787 0.004 1.348
3 Other 644 29.79% 31.49 87.58% -0.513 -0.5489 -0.282
3 Round (Default) 13299 31.55% 34.1 83.87% -0.044 0.5506 -0.27
3 Sunrise 59 33.9% 33.34 77.97% 0.268 0.3052 -0.145
3 Thematic 466 39.14% 36.88 76.18% -0.125 -0.1623 -0.32
4 Archipelago 33 19.35% 37.64 96.97% 0.081 -0.6297 0.0
4 Coastline 64 20.31% 35.23 78.13% 0.254 0.3702 1.012
4 Leaf 62 28.33% 33.02 85.48% -0.662 -0.0995 0.568
4 Other 383 36.34% 36.0 87.21% 0.84 0.5859 0.049
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 8 75.0% 28.63 62.5% 0.0 0.0 -0.574
4 Thematic 1475 39.2% 41.42 74.37% -0.952 -0.4224 -0.124
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8869 27.44% 36.24 85.02% 0.561 0.5334 0.069
5 Archipelago 9 44.44% 45.44 88.89% 0.179 -0.4003 0.323
5 Coastline 20 5.0% 58.75 100.0% 0.382 -0.183 0.844
5 Other 298 27.95% 36.3 90.27% 0.607 0.7754 0.136
5 Thematic 46 43.48% 39.24 82.61% -0.462 -0.7389 0.111
6 Archipelago 14 14.29% 47.0 92.86% 0.21 -0.0459 0.082
6 Coastline 10 0.0% 66.6 100.0% 0.233 -0.3563 0.674
6 Other 91 17.78% 34.51 82.42% -0.376 0.4332 0.129
6 Star 60 21.67% 35.53 85.0% 0.37 1.1534 0.024
6 Thematic 254 26.98% 33.55 83.07% 0.259 -0.02 -0.658
6 Two Centers (Default) 429 20.57% 36.9 87.88% -0.076 -0.17 0.295
7 Archipelago 3 33.33% 43.0 66.67% -0.045 -0.6219 -0.221
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 3 33.33% 23.33 66.67% 0.416 -0.736 -0.348

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3186 35.88 61.46% -1.784 0.1192 -0.855
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2877 37.37 63.57% -1.308 0.4219 -0.52
All Things Weaken 1743 35.66 58.06% -2.081 -0.0952 -1.042
Back Against the Wall 2888 35.94 60.73% -1.847 -0.0306 -0.756
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3047 33.73 59.53% -1.427 0.6234 -0.911
Downward Spiral 5574 34.29 67.42% -1.821 0.1719 -0.925
Erosion of Will 3238 35.15 59.85% -1.508 0.5746 -0.952
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 859 40.71 78.11% -0.979 -0.5377 -0.256
Memory Fades to Dust 5581 33.91 64.54% -2.039 0.0453 -0.952
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1782 36.2 60.83% -1.283 0.6552 -1.001
Promising Farmlands 3094 33.91 60.67% -1.635 0.4107 -1.095
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 618 40.29 85.44% -0.031 0.3932 0.283
Thriving Communities 1709 35.49 60.09% -1.31 0.6738 -1.029
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 -0.1175 -0.821
Unnatural Proliferation 1842 36.37 59.34% -1.634 0.3306 -0.972
Untended Land Crumbles 1752 34.73 58.85% -1.558 0.4352 -1.069

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 30690 28.72% 34.82 85.16% 0.093 0.89 -0.107
B 36453 29.64% 36.09 84.84% 0.031 0.7741 0.218
C 33502 28.13% 35.7 85.68% 0.107 0.6754 0.062
D 30104 28.06% 35.18 85.99% -0.027 0.7683 0.111
E 18390 30.02% 36.93 84.27% 0.23 0.877 0.001
F 31091 27.69% 35.51 85.68% 0.09 0.8145 0.001
G 26563 30.32% 34.48 84.43% -0.35 0.3814 -0.19
H 31123 27.77% 36.84 86.13% -0.057 0.6551 0.304
East 6123 36.21% 42.68 75.39% -0.564 0.2047 -0.475
Northeast 3925 35.49% 41.76 76.0% -0.494 0.3662 -0.434
Northwest 2918 37.46% 40.55 74.64% -0.589 0.4881 -1.002
Southeast 1265 34.13% 39.02 78.97% -0.417 0.2895 -0.608
Southwest 1124 42.37% 34.04 70.91% -0.896 0.2289 -1.005
West 5458 37.12% 43.66 74.9% 0.498 1.4515 0.503

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5050 0.0% 24.61 90.83% -1.547 0.5826 -0.939
Not Using Events or Tokens 18856 18.91% 31.91 91.45% 0.736 0.9108 0.052
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3784 8.49% 38.57 94.48% 0.415 0.2731 -0.029
Start of Game Growth 6135 11.81% 39.77 91.88% 0.566 -0.1946 0.007
Unlimited Undo 14798 21.82% 36.09 90.32% 0.481 -0.1229 0.607
Using Tokens but Not Events 20967 16.72% 35.83 90.28% 0.406 0.2491 0.358

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5447 100.0% 34.66 100.0% 0.212 0.0972 -0.035
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3178 100.0% 32.24 100.0% -0.13 -0.034 -0.027
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7183 100.0% 32.44 100.0% -0.107 -0.2685 -0.226
Downpour Drenches the World 159 100.0% 32.35 100.0% -0.51 -0.2578 0.29
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7113 100.0% 33.44 100.0% 0.289 -0.1984 -0.203
Finder of Paths Unseen 99 100.0% 28.38 100.0% -0.713 -0.3494 -0.571
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1475 100.0% 39.57 100.0% -0.134 -0.0779 0.239
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 669 100.0% 37.65 100.0% 0.301 0.2693 0.463
Heart of the Wildfire 2955 100.0% 33.63 100.0% -0.206 -0.031 -0.317
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 8455 100.0% 36.76 100.0% 0.249 -0.2071 0.346
Lightning's Swift Strike 4850 118.84% 32.7 104.41% -0.145 0.1297 0.151
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 49 29.17% 33.67 91.84% 0.247 -0.5296 -0.081
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 647 34.75% 39.98 84.7% 0.549 -0.0942 0.668
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 716 33.48% 38.84 84.5% 0.46 0.1934 0.685
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2482 100.0% 37.3 100.0% -0.109 -0.3753 0.072
Many Minds Move as One 1840 100.0% 37.34 100.0% -0.422 -1.0246 0.283
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6022 100.0% 36.98 100.0% 0.399 0.2143 0.384
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6314 100.0% 32.53 100.0% -0.511 -0.4907 -0.446
River Surges in Sunlight 7312 112.86% 37.83 102.17% -0.29 -0.3245 0.215
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1145 22.61% 32.01 87.34% -0.335 0.0957 -0.222
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 117 25.86% 44.96 88.03% 0.773 0.4726 0.232
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4166 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.25 -0.3025 -0.116
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2304 120.96% 29.96 106.81% -0.659 -0.2493 -0.276
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 13 41.67% 32.92 92.31% 0.5 0.5071 -0.037
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 26 46.15% 34.69 84.62% 0.506 0.1593 -0.404
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 440 38.79% 33.95 82.73% 0.728 0.7473 -0.268
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 357 39.59% 31.64 78.71% -0.832 -0.6489 -0.331
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4045 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 0.162 -0.1244 0.31
Shifting Memory of Ages 575 100.0% 33.88 100.0% -0.521 -0.4461 -0.345
Shroud of Silent Mist 922 100.0% 31.92 100.0% -0.316 -0.0795 0.102
Starlight Seeks its Form 717 100.0% 37.56 100.0% -0.21 -0.3495 -0.015
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2840 100.0% 35.54 100.0% -0.687 -0.8689 -0.201
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5284 100.0% 36.57 100.0% 0.159 0.344 0.543
Thunderspeaker 7354 100.0% 38.74 100.0% 0.363 0.4272 0.215
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1510 100.0% 33.75 100.0% 0.415 0.3242 0.081
Vital Strength of the Earth 2925 108.72% 30.85 102.77% 0.412 1.2202 -0.744
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 56 41.82% 31.48 69.64% -0.583 -0.1958 -0.302
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 362 34.21% 32.12 82.32% 0.534 1.7086 -0.356
Volcano Looming High 1292 100.0% 35.01 100.0% 0.201 0.1964 -0.025

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.09%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.62%
Mysterious Abductions 85.5%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.89%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6103 22.56 8.68%
II 36443 30.98 69.3%
III 69171 34.53 92.44%
IV 39193 37.77 99.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 530
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 62336
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21690
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 38636
Lose: Invader deck ran out 700
Lose: Adversary condition 9588
Win: Sacrifice victory 240
Lose: Scenario condition 1315
Win: Scenario condition 5149
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10392
Lose: Spirit destroyed 334

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.596 Win Model: -0.29

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.265 Win Model: -0.139
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 88036 25.09% 37.89 86.18%
2 36256 33.38% 34.45 83.79%
3 14602 31.63% 34.14 83.81%
4 10951 29.3% 36.94 83.72%
5 223 21.97% 36.87 89.69%
6 842 21.73% 35.38 85.75%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)