Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 56 19.64% 27.05 92.86% -0.448 -0.8373 -0.56
Blitz 0 1772 27.87% 31.89 80.25% -0.097 0.3907 -1.004
Dahan Insurrection 4 5929 16.25% 62.43 81.82% -0.592 -0.512 0.452
Despicable Theft 2 217 25.81% 39.16 89.4% -0.417 0.0393 0.566
Elemental Invocation 1 250 34.0% 33.82 81.2% 0.505 1.155 -0.669
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5205 11.3% 43.46 77.83% -1.072 -0.953 0.09
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1314 40.11% 35.99 80.59% 0.642 1.2395 -0.38
Rituals of Terror 3 986 43.06% 48.65 75.66% 1.623 1.5048 0.071
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 414 67.64% 39.52 65.7% -0.654 -0.3091 -1.634
Second Wave 0 8946 26.74% 33.6 87.98% -0.355 0.1565 0.28
The Great River 3 153 35.95% 31.73 54.25% -1.448 0.2618 -1.213
Varied Terrains 2 50 44.0% 37.66 90.0% 0.467 1.2594 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 824 37.85% 35.02 65.78% -0.945 -0.2244 -0.788

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 89236 24.89% 37.36 86.61% 0.317 0.989 0.1
1 Thematic 5106 29.47% 45.18 78.44% 0.078 1.2729 -0.165
2 Archipelago 90 20.22% 67.19 94.44% 0.218 1.2739 0.75
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25860 34.68% 34.14 83.6% -0.172 0.3361 -0.039
2 Coastline 4040 25.39% 35.19 88.37% 0.282 0.4923 0.258
2 Fragment 680 32.42% 29.82 85.44% 0.277 0.4812 -0.217
2 Heart 397 33.86% 29.23 83.38% 0.14 0.7547 0.292
2 Opposite Shores 5121 30.17% 34.06 84.83% 0.3 0.7922 -0.496
2 Thematic 2058 44.04% 42.85 71.57% 0.015 1.1147 -0.466
2 Top to Top 776 29.48% 37.07 85.82% 0.307 0.488 -0.025
3 Archipelago 57 40.35% 46.14 85.96% 0.05 0.6146 -0.693
3 Coastline 156 24.84% 40.49 90.38% -0.651 -0.6082 1.183
3 Other 677 29.56% 31.48 88.04% 1.085 0.2458 -0.159
3 Round (Default) 14255 31.38% 34.18 84.02% 0.046 0.3218 -0.258
3 Sunrise 61 32.79% 33.07 78.69% 0.0 0.2245 -0.161
3 Thematic 511 40.39% 36.57 74.95% -1.273 -0.8024 -0.422
4 Archipelago 40 21.05% 39.38 97.5% 0.106 0.0389 0.433
4 Coastline 75 18.67% 35.92 81.33% 0.02 -0.4397 1.335
4 Leaf 68 31.82% 31.74 85.29% 0.165 0.4705 0.499
4 Other 397 36.06% 35.69 87.15% 0.307 -0.3388 0.046
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% -0.596 0.0077 -0.62
4 Thematic 1546 38.49% 41.34 74.77% -0.75 -0.3466 -0.187
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9361 27.57% 36.26 84.92% -0.593 -0.3592 -0.039
5 Archipelago 11 45.45% 44.0 90.91% 0.089 -0.1789 0.385
5 Coastline 29 10.34% 59.07 100.0% 0.305 -0.4445 1.099
5 Other 406 23.19% 34.22 90.89% 0.464 -0.2529 0.139
5 Thematic 51 47.06% 39.76 84.31% 0.12 -0.7431 0.096
6 Archipelago 19 10.53% 42.84 94.74% 0.0 -0.1755 0.016
6 Coastline 11 0.0% 63.18 100.0% 0.0 -0.8727 0.6
6 Other 133 21.54% 36.09 84.96% 0.462 -0.2205 0.31
6 Star 81 20.99% 34.12 86.42% 0.199 0.7084 -0.01
6 Thematic 338 29.17% 34.61 81.36% 0.43 0.4919 -1.294
6 Two Centers (Default) 630 20.29% 35.97 88.1% -0.635 -0.0379 -0.13
7 Archipelago 6 50.0% 55.0 66.67% -0.742 -0.445 -0.152
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 6 16.67% 25.0 83.33% 0.127 -0.2305 -0.485

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3387 35.95 61.44% -1.574 0.3746 -0.843
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3096 37.52 63.73% -1.416 0.3781 -0.556
All Things Weaken 1968 35.6 58.18% -1.566 0.5178 -1.052
Back Against the Wall 3097 36.06 60.83% -1.326 0.5553 -0.744
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3254 33.78 59.56% -1.488 0.5847 -0.898
Downward Spiral 5937 34.34 67.53% -1.502 0.3788 -0.916
Erosion of Will 3447 35.27 60.2% -1.548 0.54 -0.931
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 965 40.79 78.13% -0.444 0.1632 -0.265
Memory Fades to Dust 5915 33.85 64.46% -1.507 0.5496 -0.936
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1995 36.32 61.3% -1.339 0.5802 -0.937
Promising Farmlands 3281 34.1 60.74% -1.552 0.4882 -1.064
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 695 40.58 85.76% -0.469 -0.0302 0.208
Thriving Communities 1912 35.79 60.46% -1.374 0.7009 -1.0
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 0.0 -0.814
Unnatural Proliferation 2075 36.55 58.99% -1.633 0.323 -0.986
Untended Land Crumbles 1958 35.16 58.94% -1.544 0.4649 -1.028

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33063 28.69% 34.86 85.14% -0.107 0.7112 -0.102
B 39021 29.57% 36.05 84.9% 0.501 1.2625 0.257
C 36112 28.09% 35.74 85.77% 0.524 1.0773 0.117
D 32391 27.98% 35.13 86.01% -0.043 0.7235 0.129
E 20892 29.91% 37.07 84.25% 0.534 1.1606 0.094
F 33447 27.63% 35.54 85.76% -0.091 0.6303 0.057
G 28558 30.32% 34.47 84.48% 0.179 0.8616 -0.15
H 33422 27.78% 36.75 86.14% 0.361 1.0418 0.333
East 6531 36.1% 42.58 75.53% 0.362 0.9683 -0.431
Northeast 4185 35.43% 41.67 76.25% -0.029 0.6647 -0.446
Northwest 3122 37.46% 40.56 74.76% 0.109 0.5881 -0.972
Southeast 1452 33.89% 39.21 78.99% -0.279 0.405 -0.564
Southwest 1277 41.79% 34.16 70.95% -1.234 -0.1961 -1.006
West 5800 37.17% 43.44 74.91% -0.308 0.5305 0.485

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5332 0.0% 24.68 90.87% -1.635 0.5772 -0.681
Not Using Events or Tokens 20160 18.74% 31.91 91.55% 0.537 0.7373 0.045
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4009 8.36% 38.65 94.41% 0.261 -0.9828 -0.081
Start of Game Growth 6506 11.73% 39.74 91.88% 0.267 -0.1113 -0.028
Unlimited Undo 15899 21.98% 36.13 90.36% 0.354 -0.1223 0.624
Using Tokens but Not Events 22621 16.92% 35.68 90.15% 0.408 0.5811 0.308

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5887 100.0% 34.7 100.0% 0.339 0.2112 -0.098
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3379 100.0% 32.32 100.0% -0.612 -0.5456 -0.077
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7677 100.0% 32.35 100.0% 0.023 -0.2366 -0.298
Downpour Drenches the World 360 100.0% 32.89 100.0% -0.417 -0.0488 0.068
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7637 100.0% 33.48 100.0% 0.511 0.0319 -0.274
Finder of Paths Unseen 187 100.0% 32.27 100.0% 0.623 0.9832 0.173
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1598 100.0% 40.08 100.0% 1.466 1.4821 0.205
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 875 100.0% 37.2 100.0% -0.185 -0.2289 0.223
Heart of the Wildfire 3108 100.0% 33.54 100.0% -0.445 -0.1298 -0.384
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9089 100.0% 36.63 100.0% 0.284 -0.2701 0.265
Lightning's Swift Strike 5088 120.87% 32.6 104.99% 0.037 0.3691 0.064
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 146 38.19% 37.76 88.36% 0.82 -0.0627 0.904
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 714 35.52% 39.66 85.01% -0.056 -0.5416 0.671
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 808 33.63% 39.06 83.91% -0.488 -1.0082 0.429
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2851 100.0% 37.04 100.0% -0.633 -0.7099 -0.187
Many Minds Move as One 2055 100.0% 37.21 100.0% 0.8 0.1771 0.281
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6460 100.0% 37.17 100.0% 0.242 0.1113 0.299
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6770 100.0% 32.61 100.0% -0.396 -0.3996 -0.475
River Surges in Sunlight 7659 116.27% 37.7 102.75% 0.387 0.2322 0.126
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1335 20.87% 31.79 88.09% 0.484 0.8972 -0.218
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 355 35.31% 47.46 85.35% 0.431 0.0206 0.273
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4453 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.093 -0.2038 -0.134
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2400 124.14% 29.91 107.42% -0.647 -0.2083 -0.327
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 44 30.23% 35.05 93.18% -0.249 -0.2612 0.291
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 67 36.92% 34.01 79.1% -1.157 -1.0685 -0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 482 38.81% 33.46 82.99% -0.549 -0.5673 -0.367
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 389 38.61% 31.7 79.69% 0.085 0.1201 -0.304
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4300 100.0% 37.02 100.0% -0.014 -0.1779 0.28
Shifting Memory of Ages 704 100.0% 34.08 100.0% 0.562 0.7339 -0.261
Shroud of Silent Mist 1066 100.0% 31.8 100.0% -0.076 0.1257 0.021
Starlight Seeks its Form 938 100.0% 37.29 100.0% -0.158 -0.2435 0.028
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3058 100.0% 35.55 100.0% -0.091 -0.295 -0.314
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5670 100.0% 36.26 100.0% 0.001 0.125 0.31
Thunderspeaker 7929 100.0% 38.58 100.0% 0.346 0.2656 0.15
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1624 100.0% 33.59 100.0% -0.044 -0.297 0.024
Vital Strength of the Earth 3070 111.13% 30.79 103.42% 0.02 0.8768 -0.824
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 141 35.71% 35.91 76.6% -0.35 0.1949 0.018
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 400 32.98% 31.73 82.0% -0.867 0.3506 -0.417
Volcano Looming High 1495 100.0% 35.2 100.0% 0.079 0.0764 -0.015

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.09%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.54%
Mysterious Abductions 85.41%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.89%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6572 22.69 8.72%
II 39201 31.12 69.15%
III 74414 34.69 92.49%
IV 42142 37.96 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 573
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 67135
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23385
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 41557
Lose: Invader deck ran out 749
Lose: Adversary condition 10366
Win: Sacrifice victory 254
Lose: Scenario condition 1391
Win: Scenario condition 5393
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11178
Lose: Spirit destroyed 348

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.656 Win Model: -0.294

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.22 Win Model: 0.104
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 94630 25.23% 37.89 86.12%
2 38963 33.39% 34.47 83.81%
3 15644 31.45% 34.2 83.95%
4 11547 29.26% 36.9 83.74%
5 349 18.55% 34.97 90.83%
6 1196 22.67% 35.43 85.87%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)