Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 70 22.86% 27.34 90.0% 0.745 0.5703 -0.538
Blitz 0 1791 27.74% 31.73 79.96% -0.565 -0.2735 -0.962
Dahan Insurrection 4 5985 16.18% 62.27 81.74% 0.02 -0.2232 0.46
Despicable Theft 2 227 25.99% 38.38 87.22% -0.742 -0.118 0.469
Elemental Invocation 1 255 33.73% 33.6 81.18% 0.342 1.1652 -0.667
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5257 11.32% 43.46 77.69% 0.134 -0.3771 0.09
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1332 39.94% 35.8 80.03% -0.473 -0.087 -0.395
Rituals of Terror 3 1009 43.17% 48.91 75.32% 1.17 0.9687 0.107
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 418 67.47% 39.38 65.55% -0.68 0.1314 -1.644
Second Wave 0 9084 26.77% 33.51 87.82% -0.076 0.0625 0.256
The Great River 3 158 34.81% 30.73 52.53% -2.069 -0.5678 -1.205
Varied Terrains 2 62 45.16% 36.47 83.87% 0.043 0.5546 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 830 37.7% 34.81 65.42% -1.014 -0.0801 -0.799

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 90735 24.82% 37.21 86.39% 0.543 0.8557 0.158
1 Thematic 5154 29.33% 45.05 78.33% 0.16 0.8286 -0.134
2 Archipelago 91 21.11% 68.09 94.51% 0.863 1.7398 0.845
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 26386 34.58% 33.98 83.24% 0.108 0.3591 -0.017
2 Coastline 4125 25.24% 35.05 88.15% 0.594 0.7811 0.31
2 Fragment 694 32.08% 29.54 84.87% -0.189 -0.1708 -0.208
2 Heart 411 34.52% 29.4 83.21% 0.804 0.7152 0.258
2 Opposite Shores 5227 30.11% 33.91 84.56% 0.461 0.679 -0.427
2 Thematic 2099 43.89% 42.75 71.27% -0.144 0.5245 -0.45
2 Top to Top 790 29.47% 36.9 85.57% -0.136 0.1201 0.004
3 Archipelago 57 40.35% 46.14 85.96% 0.162 -0.2411 -0.675
3 Coastline 157 24.68% 40.23 89.81% 0.133 -0.18 1.21
3 Other 692 29.33% 31.2 87.43% 0.066 -0.4799 -0.168
3 Round (Default) 14534 31.31% 33.99 83.73% 0.164 0.1832 -0.236
3 Sunrise 62 32.26% 32.97 79.03% 0.099 -0.5058 -0.141
3 Thematic 516 40.39% 36.37 74.42% -1.194 -1.4032 -0.504
4 Archipelago 43 24.39% 38.58 93.02% -0.511 -0.3429 0.444
4 Coastline 76 18.42% 35.45 80.26% 0.009 0.0148 1.346
4 Leaf 71 31.88% 31.38 85.92% 0.519 0.0561 0.5
4 Other 410 36.23% 35.27 86.59% -0.093 -0.78 0.062
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.1864 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% -0.479 0.0186 -0.608
4 Thematic 1578 38.73% 41.22 74.02% -0.693 -0.7304 -0.289
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9462 27.48% 36.12 84.66% -0.172 -0.3208 -0.035
5 Archipelago 11 45.45% 44.0 90.91% 0.171 -0.7468 0.413
5 Coastline 31 9.68% 55.26 93.55% -0.055 -0.2407 0.711
5 Other 445 22.55% 33.27 90.11% 0.338 -0.0972 0.189
5 Thematic 54 44.44% 38.5 81.48% -0.506 -0.8964 0.079
6 Archipelago 20 10.0% 40.7 90.0% -0.639 -0.3974 0.03
6 Coastline 11 0.0% 63.18 100.0% 0.0 -0.6256 0.616
6 Other 148 21.38% 34.61 81.76% -0.445 -0.8049 0.028
6 Star 86 20.93% 33.87 86.05% -0.145 0.4934 -0.012
6 Thematic 362 28.61% 33.99 79.83% -0.083 0.0957 -1.309
6 Two Centers (Default) 675 19.22% 34.72 86.22% -0.458 0.0558 -0.118
7 Archipelago 7 57.14% 51.29 71.43% 0.32 -1.0503 -0.139
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 7 14.29% 28.71 85.71% 0.826 0.1812 -0.242

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3423 35.92 61.32% -0.719 0.0071 -0.82
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3138 37.46 63.61% -0.589 -0.0728 -0.541
All Things Weaken 2005 35.45 57.96% -0.93 -0.0861 -1.031
Attenuated Essence 21 26.76 57.14% -0.689 0.0245 -0.945
Back Against the Wall 3127 36.05 60.83% -0.574 0.02 -0.718
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 11 32.45 45.45% -1.134 -0.095 0.0
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 33.5 50.0% -0.886 -0.0609 0.114
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3295 33.7 59.64% -0.789 0.1356 -0.878
Downward Spiral 5993 34.3 67.46% -0.408 0.3335 -0.895
Erosion of Will 3488 35.2 60.21% -0.73 0.1299 -0.902
Intensifying Exploitation 14 31.07 57.14% -0.339 0.6648 -1.266
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 982 40.6 78.11% 0.015 -0.183 -0.251
Memory Fades to Dust 5997 33.81 64.37% -0.839 0.0469 -0.92
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2022 36.11 61.03% -0.761 -0.0646 -0.936
Promising Farmlands 3324 34.0 60.65% -0.78 0.1692 -1.046
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 38.47 80.0% 0.458 1.1398 0.442
Slow Dissolution of Will 18 25.39 44.44% -1.325 -0.2625 -1.721
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 704 40.48 85.65% 0.155 -0.2913 0.234
The Border of Life and Death 2 9.5 50.0% -0.136 0.1065 -0.606
Thriving Communities 1950 35.67 60.51% -0.374 0.554 -0.965
Thriving Crops 13 30.15 61.54% -0.347 0.2517 -1.236
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 -0.0768 -0.788
Unnatural Proliferation 2101 36.54 59.07% -0.843 -0.1256 -0.96
Untended Land Crumbles 1986 35.02 58.66% -0.969 -0.1808 -1.004

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33721 28.67% 34.67 84.79% -0.123 0.7779 -0.068
B 39712 29.44% 35.86 84.63% 0.059 0.8616 0.287
C 36772 27.99% 35.54 85.42% 0.095 0.7429 0.15
D 33043 27.83% 34.95 85.72% -0.018 0.8371 0.161
E 21505 29.71% 36.78 83.92% 0.412 1.1061 0.116
F 34056 27.57% 35.35 85.42% -0.082 0.6969 0.079
G 29063 30.24% 34.29 84.17% -0.117 0.6437 -0.118
H 34042 27.66% 36.57 85.84% 0.205 0.9228 0.363
East 6665 35.97% 42.37 75.06% -0.093 0.7268 -0.326
Northeast 4278 35.29% 41.44 75.78% -0.41 0.5146 -0.369
Northwest 3190 37.35% 40.38 74.29% -0.089 0.527 -0.906
Southeast 1501 33.78% 38.78 78.01% -0.051 0.6602 -0.53
Southwest 1328 41.39% 33.77 70.11% -0.414 0.8587 -0.895
West 5908 37.11% 43.23 74.53% -0.144 0.9532 0.554

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5442 0.0% 24.5 90.21% -1.237 0.0136 -0.633
Not Using Events or Tokens 20530 18.68% 31.77 91.23% 0.172 0.4055 0.041
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4070 8.34% 38.4 93.91% 0.299 -0.3066 -0.087
Start of Game Growth 6610 11.74% 39.42 91.35% -0.165 -0.6206 -0.036
Unlimited Undo 16201 22.04% 35.92 89.78% -0.039 -0.2307 0.556
Using Tokens but Not Events 23096 16.85% 35.51 89.9% 0.353 0.3169 0.304

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6006 100.0% 34.51 100.0% 0.351 0.2231 -0.066
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3425 100.0% 32.23 100.0% -0.096 -0.0544 -0.029
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7856 100.0% 32.05 100.0% -0.198 -0.3472 -0.275
Downpour Drenches the World 391 100.0% 32.13 100.0% 0.054 0.3309 0.087
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 142 100.0% 29.94 100.0% 0.101 -0.2759 -0.663
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7756 100.0% 33.27 100.0% -0.001 -0.4448 -0.256
Finder of Paths Unseen 209 100.0% 31.25 100.0% 0.222 0.8405 0.121
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1630 100.0% 39.76 100.0% 0.213 0.7089 0.198
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 919 100.0% 36.7 100.0% 0.112 -0.0271 0.225
Heart of the Wildfire 3159 100.0% 33.45 100.0% 0.008 0.1934 -0.386
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9258 100.0% 36.43 100.0% 0.194 -0.3679 0.272
Lightning's Swift Strike 5193 121.42% 32.37 105.55% -0.19 0.0767 0.065
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 176 36.21% 35.06 81.25% -0.132 -0.9022 0.494
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 733 35.0% 39.19 84.58% -0.086 -0.4735 0.705
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 830 33.21% 38.54 82.89% -0.716 -0.9729 0.418
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2907 100.0% 36.76 100.0% -0.117 -0.3086 -0.191
Many Minds Move as One 2106 100.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.571 0.2186 0.287
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6575 100.0% 36.91 100.0% -0.008 -0.0925 0.324
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6904 100.0% 32.47 100.0% 0.205 0.1075 -0.441
River Surges in Sunlight 7781 116.65% 37.52 103.05% 0.488 0.4061 0.15
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1364 20.56% 31.63 87.98% 0.646 0.8121 -0.251
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 401 36.68% 45.24 81.8% 0.217 -0.0191 0.259
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4509 100.0% 36.97 100.0% 0.248 0.0842 -0.13
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2446 124.76% 29.75 107.81% -0.449 -0.032 -0.287
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 51 26.0% 34.06 92.16% 0.433 0.4989 0.345
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 72 38.57% 33.25 77.78% -0.545 -0.5368 -0.156
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 491 38.36% 33.1 82.69% -0.356 -0.4081 -0.331
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 403 37.82% 31.11 78.66% -0.637 -0.4996 -0.338
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4355 100.67% 36.86 100.3% 0.132 -0.0592 0.309
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 41 29.27% 24.46 68.29% -0.45 -0.5033 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 753 100.0% 33.63 100.0% 0.343 0.6041 -0.169
Shroud of Silent Mist 1088 100.0% 31.73 100.0% 0.49 0.7723 0.041
Starlight Seeks its Form 987 100.0% 36.65 100.0% 0.031 -0.1476 -0.049
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3096 100.0% 35.42 100.0% 0.058 -0.4532 -0.299
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5759 100.0% 36.06 100.0% -0.088 -0.0168 0.341
Thunderspeaker 8067 100.31% 38.39 100.12% 0.365 0.3059 0.17
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 37 32.43% 27.57 72.97% -0.091 0.054 0.344
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1652 100.0% 33.43 100.0% -0.376 -0.3964 0.055
Vital Strength of the Earth 3119 111.33% 30.6 103.66% -0.223 0.3846 -0.78
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 153 34.87% 35.2 75.16% -0.132 0.1848 0.088
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 405 32.9% 31.63 81.23% -0.933 0.0371 -0.266
Volcano Looming High 1531 100.0% 35.04 100.0% 0.282 0.278 0.04

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.09%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.54%
Mysterious Abductions 85.46%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.9%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7138 21.93 8.17%
II 39920 31.09 69.09%
III 75508 34.71 92.49%
IV 42710 37.98 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 583
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 68137
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23824
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 42116
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 588
Lose: Invader deck ran out 756
Lose: Adversary condition 10491
Win: Sacrifice victory 258
Lose: Scenario condition 1410
Win: Scenario condition 5435
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11327
Lose: Spirit destroyed 351

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.326 Win Model: -0.182

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.311 Win Model: -0.01
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 96200 25.16% 37.73 85.91%
2 39754 33.28% 34.32 83.48%
3 15951 31.41% 34.03 83.63%
4 11689 29.21% 36.75 83.42%
5 397 18.37% 33.39 88.66%
6 1285 21.95% 34.43 84.12%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-15 02:23:33 (Pacific Time)