Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 88 21.59% 25.52 82.95% -0.027 -0.2313 -0.893
Blitz 0 1831 27.62% 31.53 79.57% -0.458 -0.3054 -0.946
Dahan Insurrection 4 6130 16.04% 61.86 81.48% -0.113 -0.352 0.491
Despicable Theft 2 242 25.62% 37.71 85.54% -0.645 0.1308 0.357
Elemental Invocation 1 275 33.82% 32.75 79.27% -0.391 0.3916 -0.772
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5339 11.35% 43.4 77.6% 0.422 -0.1929 0.127
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1356 39.75% 35.45 79.28% -1.135 -0.6218 -0.393
Rituals of Terror 3 1026 43.33% 48.48 74.66% -0.264 -0.1962 0.127
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 425 66.59% 39.01 64.94% -0.956 0.044 -1.618
Second Wave 0 9351 26.84% 33.42 87.68% 0.214 0.2799 0.275
The Great River 3 168 34.52% 29.64 50.0% -2.525 -1.171 -1.248
Varied Terrains 2 68 44.12% 36.01 82.35% -0.536 0.01 -0.488
Ward the Shores 2 851 37.71% 34.54 64.98% -0.613 0.5371 -0.855

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 93358 24.8% 37.0 85.93% 0.316 0.5404 0.199
1 Thematic 5209 29.28% 44.91 78.31% 0.124 0.7453 -0.075
2 Archipelago 96 22.11% 66.74 93.75% 1.403 1.8164 0.942
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27269 34.37% 33.72 82.67% 0.103 0.2512 -0.042
2 Coastline 4318 25.04% 34.71 87.22% 0.248 0.281 0.209
2 Fragment 709 32.45% 29.39 84.2% -0.132 -0.212 -0.19
2 Heart 426 34.72% 29.5 83.33% 0.988 0.6345 0.491
2 Opposite Shores 5384 30.14% 33.8 84.08% 0.189 0.2943 -0.411
2 Thematic 2168 43.46% 42.3 70.8% -0.251 0.429 -0.421
2 Top to Top 815 30.05% 36.74 84.79% 0.107 0.0928 -0.084
3 Archipelago 59 38.98% 45.81 86.44% 0.29 -1.1214 -0.666
3 Coastline 161 24.05% 39.7 87.58% -0.046 -0.53 1.0
3 Other 719 29.14% 30.92 86.23% -0.277 -0.1024 -0.189
3 Round (Default) 15028 31.39% 33.81 83.25% 0.163 0.035 -0.25
3 Sunrise 63 33.33% 32.7 77.78% -0.11 0.0308 -0.143
3 Thematic 529 39.96% 36.1 74.1% -0.599 -0.5683 -0.634
4 Archipelago 45 27.91% 39.62 93.33% -0.183 -0.7585 0.419
4 Coastline 78 17.95% 35.17 80.77% -0.084 0.225 1.39
4 Leaf 74 30.56% 30.8 83.78% 0.048 -0.578 0.461
4 Other 417 36.1% 35.17 86.33% 0.373 -0.6902 0.051
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.4584 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% 0.0 -0.3966 -0.598
4 Thematic 1593 38.74% 41.2 73.95% -0.447 -0.5247 -0.335
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9712 27.39% 35.82 84.13% -0.14 -0.3865 -0.109
5 Archipelago 12 41.67% 40.33 83.33% -0.806 -1.8539 0.469
5 Coastline 32 9.38% 54.28 93.75% -0.27 -0.3799 0.679
5 Other 495 22.54% 32.54 89.29% 0.486 -0.1358 0.303
5 Thematic 56 42.86% 38.98 80.36% -0.586 -0.7076 0.098
6 Archipelago 23 13.04% 39.35 86.96% -0.687 -0.5059 0.026
6 Coastline 13 7.69% 55.38 92.31% 0.159 -0.6888 0.368
6 Other 164 21.74% 33.29 80.49% -0.621 -1.0924 0.04
6 Star 103 24.27% 32.16 86.41% 0.377 0.4186 -0.038
6 Thematic 409 28.5% 32.56 76.04% -0.803 -0.4547 -1.423
6 Two Centers (Default) 753 19.35% 34.12 84.86% -0.239 -0.3471 -0.098
7 Archipelago 8 50.0% 44.88 62.5% -0.037 -0.4071 -0.108
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 12 16.67% 19.25 58.33% 0.04 -0.8995 -0.225

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3487 35.84 61.23% -0.205 0.0057 -0.751
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3200 37.39 63.69% 0.16 0.1283 -0.477
All Things Weaken 2065 35.19 57.38% -0.792 -0.3798 -0.981
Attenuated Essence 58 28.17 48.28% -0.266 -0.1135 -1.59
Back Against the Wall 3192 35.98 60.75% -0.245 -0.1377 -0.656
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 53 28.64 39.62% -0.7 -0.3623 -2.038
Burn Brightest Before the End 65 36.0 55.38% -0.349 -0.1111 -0.222
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3357 33.69 59.61% -0.15 0.3215 -0.8
Downward Spiral 6118 34.2 67.24% -0.299 -0.0126 -0.835
Erosion of Will 3547 35.14 60.19% -0.182 0.1667 -0.822
Intensifying Exploitation 55 25.78 40.0% -0.644 -0.2977 -2.101
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1026 40.38 78.27% 0.806 0.2781 -0.191
Memory Fades to Dust 6145 33.68 64.07% -0.561 -0.1441 -0.88
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2083 35.88 60.73% -0.543 -0.2834 -0.867
Promising Farmlands 3402 33.93 60.58% -0.327 0.192 -0.97
Shattered Fragments of Power 42 29.71 54.76% -0.124 -0.0151 -0.707
Slow Dissolution of Will 55 29.04 43.64% -0.568 -0.0943 -1.511
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 720 40.56 85.56% 1.105 0.488 0.295
The Border of Life and Death 13 37.69 76.92% 0.796 0.4924 -0.729
Thriving Communities 2012 35.59 60.19% -0.314 0.0861 -0.927
Thriving Crops 29 32.21 62.07% 0.152 0.1243 -0.116
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 -0.1615 -0.722
Unnatural Proliferation 2167 36.44 58.88% -0.44 -0.2039 -0.877
Untended Land Crumbles 2054 34.86 58.71% -0.442 -0.1404 -0.969

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 34798 28.58% 34.45 84.3% -0.34 0.51 -0.083
B 40980 29.42% 35.59 84.1% -0.499 0.3143 0.267
C 37976 27.99% 35.31 84.95% -0.242 0.4425 0.111
D 34122 27.78% 34.71 85.19% -0.216 0.6087 0.124
E 22522 29.51% 36.44 83.19% -0.051 0.5975 0.106
F 35210 27.51% 35.09 84.85% -0.159 0.5878 0.051
G 30042 30.1% 34.03 83.58% -0.396 0.3708 -0.142
H 35098 27.69% 36.31 85.29% -0.119 0.5617 0.323
East 6838 35.79% 42.04 74.67% -0.305 0.3396 -0.329
Northeast 4400 35.08% 41.12 75.36% -0.16 0.6582 -0.394
Northwest 3286 37.14% 39.99 73.8% -0.463 0.2681 -0.941
Southeast 1577 33.29% 38.04 76.6% -0.519 0.2113 -0.57
Southwest 1404 40.29% 33.07 68.95% -0.492 0.6014 -0.974
West 6051 36.95% 42.84 74.12% -0.201 0.7527 0.519

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5566 0.0% 24.37 89.51% -0.967 -0.1329 -0.528
Not Using Events or Tokens 21070 18.71% 31.6 90.74% 0.039 0.3688 0.047
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4179 8.23% 38.23 93.35% 0.595 0.0092 0.02
Start of Game Growth 6796 11.62% 39.1 90.66% -0.317 -0.5878 -0.106
Unlimited Undo 16699 21.97% 35.66 89.04% -0.288 -0.2948 0.499
Using Tokens but Not Events 23963 16.8% 35.24 89.48% 0.46 0.3903 0.297

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6168 100.0% 34.38 100.0% 0.484 0.3358 0.012
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3523 100.0% 31.97 100.0% -0.078 0.0304 0.038
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 8084 100.0% 31.82 100.0% -0.122 -0.2922 -0.223
Downpour Drenches the World 487 100.0% 31.26 100.0% 0.212 0.406 0.001
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 421 100.0% 28.25 100.0% 0.375 -0.4063 -0.985
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7973 100.0% 33.13 100.0% -0.007 -0.4886 -0.161
Finder of Paths Unseen 248 100.0% 29.44 100.0% -0.425 0.2586 0.175
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1683 100.0% 39.33 100.0% -0.212 0.4383 0.32
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 1003 100.0% 35.61 100.0% 0.073 -0.015 0.258
Heart of the Wildfire 3270 100.0% 33.1 100.0% -0.078 0.1766 -0.403
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9510 100.0% 36.18 100.0% -0.027 -0.4505 0.329
Lightning's Swift Strike 5375 121.92% 32.06 106.03% -0.207 0.0246 0.16
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 206 36.27% 33.82 78.16% -0.353 -1.0206 0.311
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 772 35.44% 38.5 83.29% -0.107 -0.3226 0.747
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 861 32.62% 38.21 82.58% 0.072 -0.054 0.488
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3077 100.0% 36.21 100.0% -0.046 -0.1776 -0.143
Many Minds Move as One 2179 100.0% 36.65 100.0% 0.312 0.1122 0.292
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6786 100.0% 36.63 100.0% 0.132 0.1227 0.358
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 7104 100.0% 32.29 100.0% 0.177 0.0285 -0.322
River Surges in Sunlight 7970 117.87% 37.2 103.59% 0.31 0.3458 0.223
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1435 20.44% 31.43 87.39% 0.247 0.5104 -0.22
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 500 34.88% 43.56 79.0% 0.351 0.2384 0.076
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4610 100.0% 36.83 100.0% 0.415 0.1916 -0.046
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2502 126.29% 29.48 108.83% -0.81 -0.3449 -0.245
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 68 30.3% 31.74 83.82% 0.27 0.2439 0.037
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 93 31.87% 31.94 75.27% 0.012 -0.0421 -0.161
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 511 38.43% 32.7 81.8% -0.275 -0.3254 -0.393
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 421 37.38% 30.66 77.67% -0.552 -0.4992 -0.171
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4441 101.55% 36.55 100.68% -0.304 -0.4253 0.342
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 102 32.35% 27.91 70.59% 0.181 -0.2441 -0.435
Shifting Memory of Ages 812 100.0% 32.91 100.0% -0.081 0.306 0.03
Shroud of Silent Mist 1147 100.0% 31.05 100.0% -0.209 0.1029 0.08
Starlight Seeks its Form 1089 100.0% 36.32 100.0% 0.432 0.1727 -0.138
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3195 100.0% 35.26 100.0% 0.325 -0.1703 -0.194
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5926 100.0% 35.72 100.0% -0.073 -0.022 0.411
Thunderspeaker 8293 100.6% 38.14 100.34% 0.372 0.3544 0.222
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 77 35.06% 27.18 63.64% -0.081 -0.1859 -0.154
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1706 100.0% 33.13 100.0% -0.297 -0.2493 0.077
Vital Strength of the Earth 3187 112.05% 30.49 104.08% -0.122 0.4241 -0.724
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 180 34.83% 33.91 72.78% -0.348 -0.0719 0.139
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 422 32.25% 31.35 80.81% -0.377 0.5076 -0.213
Volcano Looming High 1624 100.0% 34.73 100.0% 0.317 0.3347 0.148

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.11%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.56%
Mysterious Abductions 85.5%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.92%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8095 20.82 7.36%
II 41212 31.03 68.89%
III 77397 34.74 92.45%
IV 43664 38.03 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 596
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 69814
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24564
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 43055
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1592
Lose: Invader deck ran out 769
Lose: Adversary condition 10762
Win: Sacrifice victory 263
Lose: Scenario condition 1433
Win: Scenario condition 5548
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11615
Lose: Spirit destroyed 357

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.595 Win Model: -0.167

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.29 Win Model: -0.08
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 98903 25.13% 37.52 85.48%
2 41107 33.12% 34.08 82.9%
3 16491 31.46% 33.83 83.11%
4 11965 29.12% 36.5 83.0%
5 453 18.57% 32.2 87.42%
6 1449 22.37% 33.32 81.85%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)