Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 64 21.88% 27.45 89.06% 0.425 0.2127 -0.536
Blitz 0 1779 27.81% 31.85 80.21% 0.009 0.4044 -0.981
Dahan Insurrection 4 5954 16.25% 62.37 81.81% -0.042 -0.3103 0.462
Despicable Theft 2 224 25.89% 38.61 87.95% -0.915 -0.373 0.56
Elemental Invocation 1 252 34.13% 33.83 81.35% 0.556 1.3821 -0.667
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5237 11.29% 43.46 77.77% -0.429 -0.6705 0.093
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1324 39.95% 35.84 80.21% -0.707 -0.2004 -0.394
Rituals of Terror 3 1004 43.19% 48.98 75.4% 1.453 0.934 0.103
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 415 67.48% 39.53 65.78% -0.534 0.0461 -1.64
Second Wave 0 9027 26.78% 33.54 87.87% -0.348 -0.0646 0.264
The Great River 3 157 35.03% 30.92 52.87% -1.946 -0.3812 -1.209
Varied Terrains 2 57 45.61% 36.95 85.96% 0.279 0.87 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 826 37.76% 34.94 65.62% -0.872 0.0265 -0.784

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 90009 24.85% 37.29 86.5% 0.291 0.5344 0.121
1 Thematic 5128 29.42% 45.14 78.41% 0.062 0.6862 -0.131
2 Archipelago 91 21.11% 68.09 94.51% 0.781 1.528 0.808
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 26141 34.63% 34.06 83.41% -0.116 0.0741 -0.046
2 Coastline 4089 25.28% 35.13 88.19% 0.284 0.3828 0.276
2 Fragment 687 32.07% 29.78 85.44% 0.502 0.4565 -0.243
2 Heart 407 34.1% 29.25 83.29% 0.181 0.2502 0.262
2 Opposite Shores 5177 30.09% 33.99 84.7% 0.148 0.3102 -0.477
2 Thematic 2075 44.11% 42.85 71.42% -0.108 0.5523 -0.446
2 Top to Top 784 29.57% 37.02 85.59% -0.567 -0.4382 -0.036
3 Archipelago 57 40.35% 46.14 85.96% 0.096 0.0453 -0.697
3 Coastline 157 24.68% 40.23 89.81% -0.049 -0.5127 1.174
3 Other 688 29.51% 31.28 87.5% 0.291 -0.4065 -0.151
3 Round (Default) 14401 31.36% 34.1 83.92% 0.207 0.1812 -0.268
3 Sunrise 62 32.26% 32.97 79.03% 0.022 -0.1263 -0.159
3 Thematic 514 40.55% 36.51 74.71% -1.032 -0.8204 -0.428
4 Archipelago 41 20.51% 38.41 95.12% -0.433 -0.453 0.436
4 Coastline 76 18.42% 35.45 80.26% -0.109 -0.4212 1.328
4 Leaf 70 30.88% 31.4 85.71% 0.393 0.0071 0.489
4 Other 404 36.27% 35.55 87.13% 0.246 -0.4534 0.04
4 Reverse Snake 6 33.33% 32.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.1103 0.0
4 Snake 9 77.78% 27.44 55.56% -0.447 0.0666 -0.623
4 Thematic 1564 38.75% 41.3 74.3% -0.539 -0.4107 -0.244
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9405 27.55% 36.21 84.87% -0.067 -0.1117 -0.064
5 Archipelago 11 45.45% 44.0 90.91% 0.105 -0.3465 0.397
5 Coastline 30 10.0% 57.1 96.67% 0.212 0.0298 1.085
5 Other 430 22.17% 33.51 90.47% 0.558 -0.2446 0.162
5 Thematic 53 45.28% 39.23 83.02% -0.273 -0.9881 0.084
6 Archipelago 20 10.0% 40.7 90.0% -0.726 -0.6841 0.026
6 Coastline 11 0.0% 63.18 100.0% 0.0 -0.9179 0.591
6 Other 140 21.17% 34.88 82.86% -0.036 -0.2129 0.123
6 Star 85 21.18% 33.99 85.88% -0.296 0.314 -0.029
6 Thematic 352 29.14% 34.25 80.4% 0.012 0.2688 -1.355
6 Two Centers (Default) 660 19.66% 35.03 86.82% -0.476 0.0046 -0.138
7 Archipelago 7 57.14% 51.29 71.43% 0.159 -0.7895 -0.139
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 7 14.29% 28.71 85.71% 0.305 0.1776 -0.209

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3406 35.95 61.33% -0.966 0.2184 -0.825
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3126 37.45 63.63% -0.87 0.1173 -0.55
All Things Weaken 1986 35.58 58.11% -0.935 0.3556 -1.031
Attenuated Essence 10 26.4 60.0% -0.617 0.3101 -1.653
Back Against the Wall 3113 36.07 60.87% -0.83 0.2231 -0.729
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 27.2 20.0% -1.561 -0.1333 0.0
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 38.44 55.56% -0.729 0.4644 0.311
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3271 33.75 59.55% -1.07 0.2636 -0.882
Downward Spiral 5961 34.32 67.47% -0.745 0.3982 -0.905
Erosion of Will 3469 35.22 60.16% -1.243 0.0903 -0.916
Intensifying Exploitation 10 28.0 40.0% -0.887 0.2986 -1.274
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 973 40.74 78.11% -0.183 -0.1412 -0.252
Memory Fades to Dust 5962 33.85 64.44% -0.905 0.4083 -0.922
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2006 36.23 61.22% -0.884 0.2602 -0.932
Promising Farmlands 3305 34.04 60.73% -0.91 0.4135 -1.056
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 39.0 83.33% 0.182 1.1565 0.0
Slow Dissolution of Will 9 24.11 22.22% -2.029 -0.6599 -1.269
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 702 40.43 85.61% -0.271 -0.3879 0.216
The Border of Life and Death 1 19.0 100.0% 0.06 0.5494 0.0
Thriving Communities 1930 35.75 60.41% -0.711 0.6421 -0.972
Thriving Crops 8 30.0 50.0% -0.637 0.2626 -1.045
Tipping Point 1051 35.6 62.51% 0.0 0.0 -0.796
Unnatural Proliferation 2087 36.56 58.98% -1.009 0.1525 -0.965
Untended Land Crumbles 1973 35.13 58.9% -0.925 0.3177 -1.005

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33402 28.65% 34.78 84.97% -0.169 0.6719 -0.102
B 39392 29.48% 35.96 84.79% 0.303 1.0297 0.255
C 36442 28.05% 35.65 85.63% 0.317 0.882 0.125
D 32739 27.89% 35.04 85.89% -0.006 0.7994 0.129
E 21243 29.76% 36.89 84.1% 0.468 1.0813 0.09
F 33774 27.6% 35.45 85.58% -0.039 0.6809 0.05
G 28854 30.27% 34.37 84.29% -0.054 0.6338 -0.145
H 33744 27.72% 36.67 85.99% 0.23 0.9182 0.336
East 6601 36.14% 42.51 75.29% 0.234 0.8667 -0.416
Northeast 4237 35.49% 41.56 76.0% -0.37 0.4359 -0.449
Northwest 3159 37.56% 40.5 74.52% -0.118 0.4016 -0.979
Southeast 1478 33.9% 39.01 78.42% -0.405 0.2013 -0.598
Southwest 1304 41.62% 33.94 70.48% -0.928 0.3573 -1.009
West 5856 37.24% 43.36 74.71% -0.293 0.6356 0.476

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5393 0.0% 24.57 90.52% -1.445 0.2181 -0.654
Not Using Events or Tokens 20358 18.67% 31.84 91.39% 0.15 0.3439 0.045
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4044 8.34% 38.51 94.14% 0.111 -0.6766 -0.064
Start of Game Growth 6565 11.72% 39.56 91.61% 0.019 -0.4641 -0.021
Unlimited Undo 16069 22.04% 35.99 89.99% -0.004 -0.2794 0.565
Using Tokens but Not Events 22857 16.88% 35.61 90.04% 0.372 0.4108 0.311

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5947 100.0% 34.6 100.0% 0.344 0.1808 -0.079
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3405 100.0% 32.26 100.0% -0.268 -0.2174 -0.035
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 7779 100.0% 32.18 100.0% -0.042 -0.2922 -0.282
Downpour Drenches the World 379 100.0% 32.28 100.0% -0.088 0.2485 0.16
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 79 100.0% 32.09 100.0% -0.043 -0.1379 -0.658
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 7706 100.0% 33.37 100.0% 0.1 -0.3448 -0.256
Finder of Paths Unseen 199 100.0% 31.7 100.0% -0.004 0.4607 0.101
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1608 100.0% 39.97 100.0% 0.784 1.0369 0.225
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 895 100.0% 37.07 100.0% 0.04 -0.0659 0.264
Heart of the Wildfire 3128 100.0% 33.51 100.0% -0.058 0.151 -0.366
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 9173 100.0% 36.53 100.0% 0.053 -0.5358 0.272
Lightning's Swift Strike 5146 121.17% 32.48 105.32% -0.093 0.1758 0.073
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 166 36.59% 35.63 81.93% -0.221 -0.9696 0.495
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 721 35.31% 39.53 85.02% 0.366 -0.1431 0.702
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 820 33.5% 38.82 83.41% -0.652 -1.0123 0.449
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2888 100.0% 36.82 100.0% -0.358 -0.4983 -0.185
Many Minds Move as One 2079 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 0.701 0.2463 0.314
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6522 100.0% 37.04 100.0% 0.382 0.2664 0.326
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6841 100.0% 32.56 100.0% 0.033 -0.0029 -0.457
River Surges in Sunlight 7726 116.51% 37.61 102.96% 0.549 0.4277 0.156
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1353 20.66% 31.7 88.03% 0.414 0.5935 -0.225
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 382 36.15% 45.84 82.46% -0.051 -0.3027 0.262
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4492 100.0% 37.02 100.0% 0.171 -0.0067 -0.123
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2428 124.49% 29.85 107.66% -0.637 -0.2413 -0.294
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 48 27.66% 35.31 93.75% 0.297 0.3369 0.316
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 70 38.24% 33.16 77.14% -1.015 -0.9805 -0.158
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 489 38.53% 33.21 82.82% -0.495 -0.5067 -0.339
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 398 38.32% 31.33 79.15% -0.24 -0.1673 -0.332
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4322 100.39% 36.98 100.19% 0.279 0.0378 0.309
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 26 34.62% 23.27 69.23% -0.586 -0.508 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 736 100.0% 33.73 100.0% 0.042 0.3284 -0.225
Shroud of Silent Mist 1077 100.0% 31.75 100.0% 0.194 0.4318 0.04
Starlight Seeks its Form 973 100.0% 36.78 100.0% -0.2 -0.3728 -0.085
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3077 100.0% 35.49 100.0% -0.086 -0.4743 -0.297
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 5716 100.0% 36.15 100.0% -0.065 -0.0221 0.344
Thunderspeaker 8004 100.16% 38.49 100.05% 0.563 0.5109 0.177
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 18 27.78% 34.44 77.78% 0.345 0.7105 0.352
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1641 100.0% 33.53 100.0% -0.162 -0.2784 0.051
Vital Strength of the Earth 3096 111.19% 30.69 103.49% -0.159 0.4927 -0.787
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 146 35.17% 35.77 76.71% 0.219 0.6411 0.14
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 402 32.89% 31.57 81.59% -0.863 0.1562 -0.392
Volcano Looming High 1519 100.0% 35.12 100.0% 0.369 0.3519 0.015

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Watchful Guarding 98.09%
Eerie Noises and Moving Trees 89.55%
Mysterious Abductions 85.42%
Whispered Guidance Through the Night 90.89%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6846 22.35 8.44%
II 39566 31.11 69.09%
III 75027 34.7 92.5%
IV 42438 37.97 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 578
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 67703
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23600
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 41848
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 273
Lose: Invader deck ran out 752
Lose: Adversary condition 10445
Win: Sacrifice victory 256
Lose: Scenario condition 1403
Win: Scenario condition 5413
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11256
Lose: Spirit destroyed 350

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.494 Win Model: -0.221

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.303 Win Model: -0.068
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 95436 25.19% 37.82 86.02%
2 39387 33.33% 34.4 83.64%
3 15811 31.46% 34.13 83.8%
4 11613 29.26% 36.84 83.65%
5 378 17.69% 33.88 89.42%
6 1252 22.29% 34.7 84.74%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-10 13:29:50 (Pacific Time)