Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 40 17.5% 22.1 62.5% -0.244 -0.3221 -0.895
Blitz 0 145 30.34% 38.34 62.76% -0.523 -0.3765 0.042
Dahan Insurrection 4 78 28.21% 50.23 61.54% -0.323 -0.53 -0.061
Despicable Theft 2 27 18.52% 23.63 55.56% -0.902 -0.219 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 42 26.19% 27.48 69.05% -0.314 0.4175 -0.729
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 767 18.28% 43.73 65.58% 0.433 -0.1734 0.747
Powers Long Forgotten 1 35 31.43% 31.49 85.71% 0.443 0.9315 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 23 21.74% 37.04 60.87% -0.379 -0.2741 0.688
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 20 55.0% 25.9 60.0% -0.935 0.0568 -0.637
Second Wave 0 175 32.76% 28.68 74.29% -0.14 -0.0772 -1.122
The Great River 3 57 31.58% 29.35 56.14% -1.117 0.2317 -1.486
Varied Terrains 2 90 34.44% 30.92 63.33% -0.681 -0.1183 -0.19
Ward the Shores 2 62 24.19% 15.53 33.87% -1.477 -0.2673 -1.054

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 13296 34.05% 34.68 68.65% 0.669 0.8782 0.347
1 Thematic 335 33.43% 37.13 58.81% 0.442 1.0409 -0.393
2 Archipelago 21 33.33% 33.29 66.67% -0.045 0.3117 -0.241
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2248 37.18% 32.89 68.33% 0.369 0.529 0.012
2 Coastline 392 29.85% 30.05 70.41% 0.384 0.445 0.338
2 Fragment 67 47.76% 32.09 61.19% 0.437 0.3736 0.455
2 Heart 94 65.22% 36.3 52.13% 0.225 -0.0128 0.2
2 Opposite Shores 652 31.34% 30.68 64.42% 0.096 0.2292 -0.27
2 Thematic 242 26.86% 22.17 40.91% -0.891 -0.2543 -0.036
2 Top to Top 103 43.56% 32.6 64.08% 0.309 0.3499 -0.06
3 Archipelago 14 50.0% 38.71 78.57% 0.544 -0.5427 0.213
3 Coastline 10 30.0% 35.3 50.0% 0.827 0.3294 0.684
3 Other 134 16.67% 13.84 34.33% -1.076 -0.9665 0.247
3 Round (Default) 1491 36.77% 32.58 65.93% 0.108 0.0669 -0.356
3 Sunrise 4 50.0% 34.0 75.0% 0.024 0.2205 0.0
3 Thematic 30 36.67% 30.37 73.33% 0.248 0.2839 0.504
4 Archipelago 13 38.46% 34.62 84.62% 0.702 0.4876 0.0
4 Coastline 4 25.0% 27.0 75.0% 0.517 0.6393 0.0
4 Leaf 12 66.67% 25.92 75.0% -0.228 -0.6033 0.0
4 Other 25 52.0% 24.12 64.0% 0.126 -0.7239 1.309
4 Thematic 40 42.5% 29.02 55.0% -0.353 -0.3703 0.053
4 Trapezoid (Default) 490 38.24% 31.65 68.98% 0.017 -0.1695 -0.428
5 Archipelago 5 0.0% 34.0 60.0% 0.439 -0.7861 -0.069
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 36.75 50.0% -0.216 -0.2585 0.353
5 Other 67 43.28% 22.67 56.72% -0.567 -1.0749 0.143
5 Thematic 2 50.0% 67.5 100.0% 0.766 0.4356 0.0
6 Archipelago 9 11.11% 40.44 55.56% 0.005 -0.3001 -0.515
6 Coastline 4 50.0% 34.75 75.0% 0.139 -0.5043 0.339
6 Other 39 51.28% 29.33 69.23% -0.428 -0.822 -0.535
6 Star 31 41.94% 21.77 54.84% -0.964 -0.4886 -1.038
6 Thematic 135 39.37% 32.73 54.07% -0.91 -0.5115 0.251
6 Two Centers (Default) 118 16.95% 28.0 67.8% -0.561 -0.5175 -1.353
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.812 -1.4016 0.0
7 Other 9 11.11% 22.44 55.56% -0.332 -1.1053 -0.179

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 325 34.98 55.08% -0.205 0.0658 0.095
Aid From Lesser Spirits 270 41.41 65.19% 0.273 0.3117 0.365
All Things Weaken 373 32.61 49.87% -0.412 0.0483 -0.239
Attenuated Essence 331 34.88 57.4% -0.056 0.1492 -0.003
Back Against the Wall 261 37.5 60.15% -0.14 0.0215 0.114
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 318 34.52 52.83% -0.195 0.2194 -0.05
Burn Brightest Before the End 322 34.75 50.93% -0.462 -0.1574 -0.179
Disintegrating Ecosystem 363 33.67 54.55% -0.28 0.2461 -0.101
Downward Spiral 368 38.59 64.67% 0.287 0.6399 0.553
Erosion of Will 373 35.83 55.76% -0.203 0.2051 0.057
Intensifying Exploitation 381 31.62 49.34% -0.399 -0.0121 -0.193
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 133 34.21 66.17% 0.08 -0.4458 0.011
Memory Fades to Dust 372 32.49 51.34% -0.346 0.1352 -0.041
Power Corrodes the Spirit 344 36.51 54.65% -0.107 0.1976 0.215
Promising Farmlands 323 32.41 46.75% -0.58 0.0059 -0.186
Shattered Fragments of Power 288 37.31 56.94% -0.154 0.0243 0.253
Slow Dissolution of Will 325 36.23 51.08% -0.324 0.2101 0.096
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 108 34.49 69.44% 0.337 -0.3408 0.677
The Border of Life and Death 86 39.77 74.42% 0.53 0.4008 0.638
Thriving Communities 372 33.16 51.08% -0.326 0.1671 -0.116
Thriving Crops 186 34.47 61.29% -0.142 -0.0537 -0.153
Unnatural Proliferation 377 35.71 53.58% -0.271 0.0264 -0.199
Untended Land Crumbles 342 33.44 54.39% -0.153 0.2049 -0.23

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4293 34.92% 32.69 68.58% 0.104 0.9442 -0.003
B 4028 34.14% 32.48 67.11% 0.127 0.9059 0.07
C 4763 33.13% 33.62 68.13% 0.233 0.887 0.008
D 3331 35.21% 31.95 66.86% -0.032 0.7668 -0.278
E 3679 35.08% 32.27 65.48% 0.09 0.719 0.016
F 3104 36.3% 32.86 67.07% 0.043 0.7623 0.021
G 2941 36.7% 32.24 65.32% 0.005 0.7472 -0.157
H 3098 35.68% 33.87 67.33% 0.14 0.7878 -0.081
East 519 33.27% 32.29 54.34% -0.101 0.5035 -0.222
Northeast 323 34.29% 29.91 53.25% -0.263 0.6178 -0.394
Northwest 276 39.93% 29.66 50.36% -0.095 0.5779 0.124
Southeast 231 36.32% 35.48 56.28% 0.337 0.9735 0.519
Southwest 333 33.54% 29.62 51.95% -0.19 0.9743 0.262
West 547 33.95% 29.0 51.19% -0.387 0.5776 0.09

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 86 0.0% 20.86 68.6% -0.838 0.0452 -0.227
Not Using Events or Tokens 8 100.0% 38.25 100.0% 0.987 1.3194 0.779
Skip Initial Invader Actions 444 6.68% 48.89 83.11% 1.05 0.5149 1.653
Start of Game Growth 802 12.42% 45.0 77.68% 0.544 0.2135 -0.484
Unlimited Undo 2330 27.65% 34.39 68.8% -0.101 -0.1232 0.105
Using Tokens but Not Events 2103 17.43% 28.68 69.19% -0.227 -0.2806 -0.688

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 614 100.0% 30.32 100.0% 0.184 0.0246 0.232
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 133 100.0% 32.26 100.0% 0.143 0.2649 0.171
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 252 100.0% 27.72 100.0% -0.364 -0.5318 -0.202
Downpour Drenches the World 436 100.0% 28.34 100.0% -0.226 -0.0473 -0.183
Eyes Watch From the Trees 352 100.0% 28.45 100.0% 0.079 -0.5097 -0.916
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 215 100.0% 31.56 100.0% 0.376 -0.0952 -0.178
Finder of Paths Unseen 386 100.0% 26.32 100.0% -0.512 0.1827 -0.166
Fractured Days Split the Sky 149 100.0% 27.34 100.0% -0.449 0.2353 0.176
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 294 100.0% 31.76 100.0% -0.004 -0.1055 0.067
Heart of the Wildfire 180 100.0% 26.39 100.0% -0.424 -0.1795 -0.309
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 943 100.0% 34.82 100.0% 0.282 -0.168 0.042
Lightning's Swift Strike 131 374.07% 28.52 281.68% 0.528 0.7311 -0.026
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 185 46.45% 35.77 64.32% 0.352 -0.3449 0.007
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 184 16.85% 19.64 40.76% -0.929 -1.1689 -0.039
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 166 27.44% 34.49 62.05% 0.001 -0.1586 0.236
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 665 100.0% 29.93 100.0% -0.247 -0.3921 -0.389
Many Minds Move as One 203 100.0% 31.15 100.0% 0.115 -0.1058 0.467
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 364 100.0% 32.04 100.0% 0.075 0.0658 -0.13
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 233 100.0% 32.18 100.0% 0.149 0.0075 0.325
River Surges in Sunlight 221 201.8% 30.11 158.37% -0.157 -0.1546 -0.516
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 67 33.33% 30.27 68.66% -0.097 0.1727 0.588
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 274 33.58% 32.89 60.58% -0.018 -0.1472 -0.176
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 301 100.0% 32.33 100.0% 0.245 0.0312 -0.141
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 26 373.08% 18.23 242.31% 0.109 0.5449 -0.313
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 34 44.12% 33.15 79.41% 0.517 0.5167 0.639
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 35 37.14% 30.31 68.57% -0.016 -0.0248 -0.131
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 41 39.02% 26.15 65.85% 0.205 0.1326 0.819
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 15 66.67% 25.8 66.67% -0.253 -0.1949 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 182 319.13% 33.01 189.01% 0.102 -0.0259 -0.063
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 608 33.94% 34.53 73.36% 0.405 0.042 0.388
Shifting Memory of Ages 300 100.0% 24.74 100.0% -0.195 0.212 -0.398
Shroud of Silent Mist 147 100.0% 26.76 100.0% -0.229 0.0855 -0.346
Starlight Seeks its Form 637 100.0% 32.97 100.0% 0.149 -0.1237 -0.049
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 425 100.0% 33.84 100.0% 0.367 -0.1283 0.364
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 217 100.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.251 0.2812 0.19
Thunderspeaker 149 277.48% 28.09 185.91% -0.082 -0.1013 0.267
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 417 35.42% 31.7 69.3% -0.003 -0.0665 0.441
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 159 100.0% 31.03 100.0% -0.199 -0.1376 0.163
Vital Strength of the Earth 91 186.81% 22.42 149.45% -0.063 0.4898 -0.645
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 101 44.55% 36.69 73.27% 0.582 0.8375 -0.141
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 38 39.47% 22.47 52.63% -0.666 0.2302 -0.024
Volcano Looming High 334 100.0% 31.69 100.0% 0.003 0.0131 0.153

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4686 21.03 13.98%
II 8473 31.04 75.73%
III 5685 34.74 91.15%
IV 1297 38.02 99.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 655
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5153
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6363
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1292
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3676
Lose: Invader deck ran out 131
Lose: Adversary condition 1165
Win: Sacrifice victory 18
Lose: Scenario condition 80
Win: Scenario condition 69
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1518
Lose: Spirit destroyed 21

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.619 Win Model: -0.188

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.305 Win Model: 0.095
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 13664 34.06% 34.73 68.38%
2 3810 35.76% 31.62 65.56%
3 1665 35.12% 31.07 63.54%
4 585 39.38% 31.18 68.72%
5 76 40.79% 24.32 51.32%
6 341 31.83% 29.89 61.58%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)