Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 138 48.55% 26.94 -1.636 65.22% -0.025 0.2385
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 104 60.58% 28.51 -2.262 55.77% -0.648 -0.3019
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 80 70.0% 31.11 -5.425 50.0% -1.506 -0.6759
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 120 69.17% 31.01 -0.688 34.17% -2.186 -1.1943
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 38 71.05% 33.92 9.494 26.32% -0.171 1.1488
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 23 65.22% 34.48 -9.204 26.09% -0.54 1.1223
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 107 68.22% 36.86 6.405 19.63% -0.316 1.6968
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 213 41.78% 27.38 -1.147 77.0% -0.163 -0.0782
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 182 51.93% 28.8 0.238 76.37% 0.601 0.5058
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 178 56.74% 35.44 0.673 70.79% -0.345 -0.3567
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 130 71.54% 38.55 6.475 60.0% -0.113 0.0846
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 54 61.11% 44.91 -4.512 68.52% -0.872 -0.6691
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 40 77.5% 29.1 -2.559 17.5% -0.555 0.006
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 62 80.65% 35.94 0.824 20.97% -0.369 0.9687
The Kingdom of England 0 1 155 43.87% 25.14 -3.927 68.39% -0.485 -0.2193
The Kingdom of England 1 3 95 60.0% 29.84 0.465 65.26% -0.216 -0.0321
The Kingdom of England 2 4 123 63.41% 28.52 1.841 50.41% -0.169 0.5672
The Kingdom of England 3 6 104 71.15% 33.89 3.002 42.31% -0.115 1.0245
The Kingdom of England 4 7 77 72.73% 40.55 -1.532 53.25% -0.633 0.4136
The Kingdom of England 5 9 31 74.19% 31.16 2.292 16.13% -0.951 0.6894
The Kingdom of England 6 11 126 69.92% 40.08 3.916 24.6% -0.957 1.0849
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 135 55.97% 24.37 -1.34 53.33% -0.458 -0.0551
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 88 64.77% 25.36 -7.11 47.73% -2.014 -1.059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 122 51.64% 30.57 -1.544 37.7% -0.61 0.4631
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 61 62.3% 34.46 0.421 31.15% -1.003 0.2851
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 58 51.72% 32.71 23.995 17.24% 0.282 1.6835
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 32 65.63% 41.63 -0.768 28.13% -0.891 0.0379
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 245 69.39% 41.51 6.765 18.37% -1.102 0.2422
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 43 23.26% 27.65 -3.375 74.42% 0.01 0.027
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 33 33.33% 26.52 -3.438 57.58% -0.773 -0.3431
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 31 61.29% 25.42 0.898 48.39% -0.027 0.4142
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 43.48% 33.91 -6.872 56.52% -0.556 -0.1705
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 13 38.46% 34.69 7.092 46.15% 0.037 0.6553
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 17 70.59% 44.18 0.61 41.18% -0.238 0.5454
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 83 80.72% 35.65 5.317 2.41% -0.86 0.4152
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 119 49.58% 24.13 -4.229 67.23% -0.343 -0.163
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 106 63.21% 27.75 1.647 69.81% 0.315 0.3413
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 118 61.86% 27.63 -6.399 61.02% -1.267 -1.0439
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 147 71.43% 32.03 0.62 46.94% -1.159 -0.7308
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 63 84.13% 29.54 0.966 38.1% -0.613 -0.0045
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 71.43% 33.14 -2.456 38.1% -0.484 0.5259
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 99 74.75% 39.63 -0.533 46.46% -0.784 0.1034
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 121 40.5% 27.57 -0.183 79.34% 0.331 0.4526
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 92 61.96% 27.34 -0.559 52.17% -0.196 0.4452
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 95 56.84% 33.89 -0.562 65.26% -0.259 0.1664
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 69 76.81% 36.74 -7.671 53.62% -0.227 0.8877
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 26 53.85% 48.96 -6.358 73.08% -0.236 0.6684
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 24 95.83% 27.75 2.855 8.33% -0.808 0.6875
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 97 93.81% 37.68 7.441 13.4% -0.124 1.7165

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3431 52.35 28.46 66.34% 0.091 0.1456 -0.208
1 Thematic 510 62.94 28.19 47.84% -0.6 -0.122 -0.074
2 Archipelago 4 100.0 45.0 75.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 624 53.04 29.76 65.06% 0.058 0.1405 -0.147
2 Coastline 127 52.38 24.31 73.23% 1.01 0.8564 -0.313
2 Fragment 29 72.41 29.0 75.86% -0.39
2 Heart 11 27.27 29.55 81.82% 0.467 0.1797 0.697
2 Opposite Shores 181 61.88 30.17 58.56% 0.193 0.2164 0.084
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 167 62.05 28.33 41.92% -0.604 -0.2008 -0.351
2 Top to Top 24 50.0 32.83 83.33% -0.26 -0.426 -0.273
3 Archipelago 4 100.0 45.5 75.0% 0.29
3 Coastline 4 50.0 30.0 100.0%
3 Other 24 30.43 30.5 79.17% 0.506
3 Round (Default) 402 52.74 30.66 65.92% 0.517 0.4016 0.177
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 17.5 50.0%
3 Thematic 58 67.24 32.78 46.55% -0.57 -0.4901 -0.428
4 Archipelago 9 11.11 29.44 88.89% 0.064 -0.6102
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 2 0.0 37.0 100.0% 0.324 -0.0194
4 Other 11 45.45 28.36 81.82% 0.56 -0.5239 0.706
4 Thematic 119 36.97 32.38 73.11% 0.561 0.2983 -0.238
4 Trapezoid (Default) 172 52.33 33.69 64.53% -0.734 -0.8166 0.16
5 Archipelago 3 66.67 19.67 66.67%
5 Other 19 57.89 33.16 52.63% -0.373
5 Thematic 2 0.0 41.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 6 33.33 31.5 100.0%
6 Other 3 0.0 33.67 66.67% -0.234
6 Star 4 25.0 42.75 50.0% -0.089
6 Thematic 17 17.65 25.94 58.82% -0.322 0.0981
6 Two Centers (Default) 10 20.0 24.1 60.0% -0.77 -0.6658 -0.134
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 54.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 223 27.28 44.84% -0.003 0.239 0.31
Aid From Lesser Spirits 181 31.27 52.49% 0.809 0.7319 0.437
All Things Weaken 223 25.84 41.26% -0.284 0.1089 -0.07
Attenuated Essence 10 21.8 50.0% 0.624 0.7312 -0.26
Back Against the Wall 175 29.17 53.71% 0.489 0.5463 0.32
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 16.4 10.0% -0.978 -0.7766 -0.16
Burn Brightest Before the End 10 19.2 30.0% -0.363 -0.1524 -0.273
Disintegrating Ecosystem 223 25.04 49.33% 0.183 0.607 -0.068
Downward Spiral 257 24.88 47.47% -0.554 -0.3185 0.675
Erosion of Will 206 25.44 42.72% -0.833 -0.5233 0.065
Intensifying Exploitation 14 14.71 7.14% -0.575 -0.2872 -0.375
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 90 36.06 76.67% 1.315 0.8208 0.588
Memory Fades to Dust 259 26.44 49.42% -0.015 0.3218 -0.482
Power Corrodes the Spirit 264 26.89 47.73% -0.505 -0.2849 0.297
Promising Farmlands 192 27.56 50.52% 0.544 0.9977 -0.13
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 26.0 57.14% 0.715 0.7659 -0.053
Slow Dissolution of Will 10 28.8 60.0% 0.733 1.1323 -0.185
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 67 33.46 80.6% 0.231 -0.4793 0.782
The Border of Life and Death 4 14.0 50.0% 0.112 -0.223
Thriving Communities 235 26.74 44.26% -0.49 -0.1274 -0.123
Thriving Crops 3 13.0 66.67% 0.344 0.1465
Unnatural Proliferation 267 29.05 46.44% -0.215 -0.0 0.635
Untended Land Crumbles 262 25.36 45.42% -0.44 -0.1577 0.064

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1158 53.64% 28.95 63.73% 0.173 0.9135 0.146
B 1096 51.42% 29.39 65.97% -0.111 0.6147 0.153
C 1152 51.87% 28.98 67.1% 0.387 0.9695 0.495
D 992 52.98% 29.29 68.45% -0.013 0.6985 0.121
E 980 51.73% 29.77 66.84% 0.012 0.5776 -0.056
F 855 54.87% 29.86 62.81% 0.016 0.6861 -0.217
G 801 50.94% 30.07 66.29% 0.335 0.9871 0.022
H 752 49.47% 30.91 69.81% 0.018 0.5889 0.219
East 588 55.03% 30.33 53.4% -0.341 0.1982 -0.476
Northeast 280 53.76% 30.51 56.43% -0.695 -0.0597 -0.189
Northwest 236 53.39% 29.07 55.08% -0.902 -0.0928 -0.419
Southeast 212 48.11% 30.81 56.6% -1.043 -0.337 -0.31
Southwest 211 56.87% 27.09 49.76% -0.21 0.7796 -0.597
West 550 58.18% 28.68 51.45% -0.021 0.8827 -1.021

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 11 0.0% 15.82 45.45% -0.916 -0.1399
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 42.42% 24.4 74.29% -0.596 -0.2171
Skip Initial Invader Actions 176 25.44% 43.8 78.98% 0.824 0.2065 1.415
Start of Game Growth 328 27.9% 44.4 82.93% 0.238 -0.1106 0.586
Unlimited Undo 454 43.69% 30.79 69.16% -0.286 -0.293 -0.012
Using Tokens but Not Events 593 44.69% 27.95 62.56% -0.36 -0.3708 -2.182

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1456 20.4 12.36%
II 1898 31.01 66.33%
III 1726 34.76 86.1%
IV 903 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.59 Win Model: 0.231
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4001 53.79% 28.32 63.61%
2 1139 55.76% 29.52 63.48%
3 477 53.78% 31.03 64.15%
4 311 44.37% 33.03 70.1%
5 13 53.85% 29.85 61.54%
6 42 21.43% 29.05 66.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 179
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1464
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1243
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 890
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 243
Lose: Invader deck ran out 85
Lose: Adversary condition 643
Win: Sacrifice victory 52
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1100
Lose: Spirit destroyed 84

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)