Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 14 50.0% 28.93 0.855 85.71% 0.372 0.6526
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 8 62.5% 34.25 3.649 87.5% 0.443 0.8166
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 92.31% 31.46 2.884 53.85% -0.541 0.3067
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 83.33% 26.0 -0.508 25.0% -1.797 -0.5598
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 66.67% 33.17 3.796 33.33% -1.029 0.4934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 64.5 11.019 100.0% 0.197 2.2249
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 38.1 4.123 30.0% -1.788 0.3041
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 36 38.89% 26.17 -0.692 75.0% -0.331 -0.284
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 16 43.75% 32.94 2.534 93.75% 0.618 0.59
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 38 60.53% 34.32 3.454 68.42% -0.567 -0.5695
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 68.75% 37.56 5.304 62.5% -0.381 -0.0966
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 12 41.67% 47.33 9.108 83.33% -0.018 0.3599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 75.0% 35.25 3.546 25.0% -1.088 -0.2548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 35.0 3.947 25.0% -1.214 0.0355
The Kingdom of England 0 1 12 25.0% 26.58 -1.049 83.33% -0.117 0.216
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 33.33% 34.67 2.236 83.33% -0.098 0.3844
The Kingdom of England 2 4 14 85.71% 29.93 1.123 57.14% -0.497 0.4608
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 55.56% 39.0 4.698 55.56% -0.882 0.6956
The Kingdom of England 4 7 20 75.0% 40.55 6.217 55.0% -0.918 0.6038
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 60.0 18.044 100.0% 0.28 2.3435
The Kingdom of England 6 11 25 80.0% 44.0 7.657 36.0% -1.641 0.6143
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 14 69.23% 22.93 -2.554 50.0% -1.134 -0.61
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 100.0% 30.0 0.893 75.0% 0.008 0.899
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 20 30.0% 29.9 0.052 30.0% -2.525 -0.397
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 12 83.33% 29.83 1.546 25.0% -1.57 0.616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 47.71 8.4 57.14% -1.111 1.0342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 50.0% 48.25 10.147 50.0% -0.68 1.1383
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 45.45% 47.27 8.701 36.36% -1.776 0.3594
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 13 76.92% 17.46 -4.596 53.85% -0.445 -0.3601
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 71.43% 29.86 1.304 85.71% 0.231 0.2402
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 71.43% 32.86 2.507 85.71% 0.184 0.4014
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 20 55.0% 48.45 9.487 100.0% 1.287 1.5712
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 50.33 12.288 100.0% 0.524 1.3015
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 100.0% 33.67 2.865 33.33% -0.486 0.6792
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 69.23% 40.77 6.944 53.85% -0.822 0.3106
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 17 41.18% 24.47 -2.362 82.35% -0.234 -0.3511
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 33.33% 34.0 3.125 66.67% -0.207 0.4814
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 37.5% 42.0 5.885 87.5% 0.115 0.551
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 83.33% 49.17 9.583 83.33% 0.142 1.4168
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 24.0 -0.401 0.0% -0.36 1.6758
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 87.5% 36.25 3.976 12.5% -1.842 0.1071

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 488 50.31 29.13 -0.211 74.59% 0.118 0.4731
1 Thematic 33 51.52 29.27 0.201 54.55% -0.589 -0.0921
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 95 56.84 28.32 -0.704 71.58% -0.096 0.0935
2 Coastline 16 62.5 23.94 -1.395 75.0% 0.366 0.5009
2 Fragment 5 80.0 25.8 -0.211 80.0% 0.182 0.6081
2 Heart 2 0.0 39.0 3.697 100.0% 0.207 0.498
2 Opposite Shores 22 40.91 27.64 -1.156 59.09% -0.609 -0.3828
2 Thematic 25 75.0 35.04 1.309 56.0% -0.577 -0.5331
2 Top to Top 4 50.0 35.75 2.638 100.0% 0.462 0.578
3 Other 4 0.0 41.0 5.492 100.0% 0.38 0.7824
3 Round (Default) 65 58.46 31.85 0.285 67.69% -0.209 -0.178
3 Thematic 4 75.0 38.75 3.297 75.0% 0.291 -0.0479
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 6.084 100.0% 0.089 0.1685
4 Other 5 60.0 35.2 2.912 80.0% 0.229 0.3096
4 Thematic 19 26.32 31.21 -0.542 73.68% 0.121 -0.9573
4 Trapezoid (Default) 33 45.45 35.61 0.719 75.76% -0.369 -0.4013
5 Other 1 0.0 66.0 7.464 100.0% 0.025 -0.1919

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 25 27.36 -2.211 44.0% -1.55 0.5181
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 28.87 -1.452 60.0% -0.79 1.1267
All Things Weaken 29 21.83 -3.936 37.93% -1.922 0.2378
Back Against the Wall 26 32.04 -0.234 69.23% -0.825 1.2673
Disintegrating Ecosystem 33 24.73 -2.905 63.64% -0.896 1.3258
Downward Spiral 39 23.38 -3.651 53.85% -1.558 0.4565
Erosion of Will 35 22.77 -4.294 48.57% -1.736 0.4754
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 34.5 0.768 62.5% -0.762 -0.0498
Memory Fades to Dust 28 25.0 -2.429 67.86% -0.858 1.3573
Power Corrodes the Spirit 46 28.35 -1.266 65.22% -0.947 1.0728
Promising Farmlands 37 25.59 -3.756 51.35% -1.557 0.6577
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 36.0 0.752 100.0% 0.269 0.6864
Thriving Communities 36 25.22 -3.04 47.22% -1.676 0.4314
Unnatural Proliferation 27 23.89 -2.998 44.44% -1.43 0.6502
Untended Land Crumbles 35 25.14 -2.846 45.71% -1.456 0.6393

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 156 54.19% 27.56 -1.439 69.87% -0.261 -1.3342
B 167 47.31% 30.47 0.205 73.65% 0.291 -0.8733
C 167 58.68% 31.49 0.573 70.06% 0.157 -1.2397
D 171 57.31% 28.38 -0.568 71.93% 0.264 -0.8942
E 151 50.33% 30.85 0.453 74.83% 0.204 -1.0525
F 115 50.43% 32.13 0.82 70.43% 0.143 -1.0824
G 105 44.76% 31.11 0.148 80.95% 0.49 -0.7226
H 112 43.75% 33.75 1.16 78.57% 0.288 -0.9337
East 41 35.0% 33.85 1.847 73.17% 0.683 -0.2527
Northeast 29 42.86% 35.76 1.734 75.86% -0.086 -0.9557
Northwest 30 50.0% 31.33 -0.828 60.0% -0.445 -1.3903
Southeast 18 61.11% 33.11 1.187 61.11% -0.01 -0.9928
Southwest 19 68.42% 30.74 -0.706 52.63% -0.055 -0.6805
West 34 50.0% 29.71 -1.087 58.82% -0.475 -1.1402

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 25.5 -3.548 50.0% -0.525 1.5142
Not Using Events or Tokens 8 50.0% 21.0 -4.287 62.5% -0.564 -0.3436
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 11.54% 47.59 5.309 85.19% 0.091 -0.6148
Start of Game Growth 54 20.75% 44.33 4.555 87.04% 0.654 0.195
Unlimited Undo 58 50.88% 35.5 1.265 68.97% -0.113 -0.5158
Using Tokens but Not Events 66 40.63% 26.62 -1.358 83.33% 0.203 0.1571

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 148 22.34 25.0%
II 307 30.71 72.31%
III 246 34.23 87.4%
IV 121 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.165 Win Model: 0.035
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 525 50.19% 29.17 73.52%
2 167 57.83% 29.26 68.86%
3 73 57.53% 32.26 69.86%
4 57 38.6% 34.74 75.44%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 37
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 208
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 219
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 117
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 62
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 138
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)