Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 54 22.22% 12.33 0.249 31.48% 0.375 0.5555
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 30 33.33% 18.27 -4.228 30.0% -0.688 -0.559
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 32 21.88% 11.91 -3.306 21.88% -0.412 0.0321
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 25 36.0% 16.0 0.0 24.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 17 41.18% 21.88 12.83 29.41% -0.089 0.5908
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 12 58.33% 13.25 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 10 50.0% 15.6 2.189 10.0% -0.429 1.5226
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 357 39.78% 20.47 0.498 47.34% 0.278 0.7437
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 248 43.15% 21.86 -3.348 40.32% -0.198 -0.272
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 174 57.47% 22.22 -0.305 32.76% -0.265 0.3242
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 215 60.93% 26.09 -0.54 26.98% -0.678 0.1316
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 73 52.05% 24.11 0.0 20.55%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 66 45.45% 19.77 6.681 12.12% -0.217 0.9789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 169 61.45% 30.14 1.733 16.57% -0.714 1.001
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 441 32.88% 21.15 -4.636 57.14% -0.947 -0.5953
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 466 35.91% 22.82 -1.845 58.37% -0.439 -0.4183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 395 48.86% 28.93 0.38 56.71% -0.227 -0.0935
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 242 62.4% 30.26 -1.32 47.11% 0.179 0.5408
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 154 49.35% 33.05 2.199 52.6% -0.4 -0.1832
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 74 63.51% 22.08 8.187 16.22% 0.095 0.3631
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 125 68.0% 27.63 2.503 12.8% -0.639 0.7069
The Kingdom of England 0 1 349 36.96% 19.43 0.348 51.29% 0.282 0.4847
The Kingdom of England 1 3 253 40.32% 23.66 -0.574 52.17% -0.053 0.2697
The Kingdom of England 2 4 291 49.48% 22.66 -0.767 39.18% -0.46 0.1062
The Kingdom of England 3 6 210 58.1% 25.62 0.189 30.48% -0.951 0.3245
The Kingdom of England 4 7 158 61.39% 29.61 0.0 36.08%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 86 53.49% 22.24 0.0 13.95%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 244 66.24% 32.06 14.355 15.57% -0.015 1.8717
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 349 43.68% 18.19 -2.185 39.83% -0.522 -0.0561
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 220 50.45% 17.59 -2.703 29.55% -0.684 0.1961
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 237 41.35% 24.96 2.84 31.65% 0.015 1.0095
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 167 47.9% 32.14 -0.755 39.52% -0.382 0.9379
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 99 43.43% 27.38 11.429 17.17% -0.067 1.1833
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 86 55.81% 31.33 0.0 18.6%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 405 57.96% 36.55 1.536 14.81% -0.553 0.7354
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 190 17.89% 17.69 -3.005 43.68% -0.601 -0.5744
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 179 37.99% 21.37 -0.553 40.78% -0.519 0.0026
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 138 32.61% 21.57 1.194 40.58% -0.207 0.4978
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 123 43.09% 30.54 6.733 47.15% 0.497 0.6815
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 71 47.89% 25.31 -3.219 36.62% -0.208 0.4654
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 74 63.51% 21.96 0.0 18.92%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 218 66.67% 31.01 6.448 6.88% 0.11 1.3087
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 296 35.81% 18.58 -2.512 51.35% -0.325 -0.1467
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 309 43.04% 17.84 -4.586 43.37% -0.932 -0.8024
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 309 47.9% 23.46 3.756 51.46% 0.403 0.6087
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 227 64.76% 27.21 -5.336 40.97% -0.036 0.2256
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 147 67.35% 20.65 4.196 26.53% -0.375 0.2016
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 65 58.46% 23.08 0.0 23.08%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 176 68.0% 28.59 0.413 28.98% -0.301 0.4948
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 313 30.67% 20.03 -2.162 53.99% -0.386 -0.1419
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 212 49.06% 20.71 3.28 40.09% 0.37 0.9397
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 229 44.98% 24.61 12.193 46.72% 0.79 1.1783
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 156 60.9% 26.53 2.307 34.62% -0.482 0.3146
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 98 42.86% 34.16 14.674 50.0% 0.369 1.1129
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 72 61.11% 16.0 0.962 5.56% -0.315 1.5437
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 171 78.82% 30.5 23.049 12.28% 0.181 1.8452

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6977 44.8 23.01 51.68% -0.669 -0.4654 0.277
1 Thematic 1193 46.73 19.59 34.2% -0.905 -0.2962 -0.325
2 Archipelago 25 84.0 31.76 60.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1363 43.61 22.05 47.98% -0.42 -0.3395 -1.266
2 Coastline 330 40.73 29.26 71.82% 1.284 1.189 0.207
2 Fragment 56 76.36 26.96 60.71% 0.674
2 Heart 33 69.7 22.94 42.42% -0.264 -0.7254
2 Opposite Shores 338 52.37 27.44 58.58% 0.286 0.4179 0.546
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 391 45.64 20.18 32.23% 0.127 0.486 -0.341
2 Top to Top 44 47.73 27.5 65.91%
3 Archipelago 6 100.0 42.67 83.33%
3 Coastline 6 66.67 32.67 66.67%
3 Other 41 55.0 28.27 70.73% 0.538 0.1533
3 Round (Default) 945 43.07 27.75 58.62% 0.453 0.4585 0.24
3 Sunrise 3 33.33 29.0 66.67%
3 Thematic 128 52.34 25.35 33.59% -0.35 -0.781 -0.073
4 Archipelago 15 6.67 29.53 80.0% -0.189 -0.4294
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 2 0.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Other 25 60.0 18.84 40.0% 0.477 -0.3665
4 Thematic 138 40.58 32.25 70.29% 0.472 0.27
4 Trapezoid (Default) 280 47.86 29.85 60.36% 0.065 0.2551 0.621
5 Archipelago 3 66.67 19.67 66.67%
5 Other 37 51.35 25.95 37.84% -0.208 -0.3688
5 Thematic 6 16.67 33.0 83.33%
6 Archipelago 10 20.0 34.9 100.0%
6 Other 15 6.67 17.73 46.67%
6 Star 5 40.0 38.8 40.0%
6 Thematic 52 17.31 18.71 38.46% -0.188 0.0601 -0.065
6 Two Centers (Default) 37 21.62 13.49 32.43% -0.495 0.7061 -0.449
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 3 0.0 18.0 33.33% -0.06

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 354 25.67 41.53% 0.8 0.9484 -0.432
Aid From Lesser Spirits 298 29.18 47.65% -0.242 -0.3547 0.446
All Things Weaken 392 24.44 39.54% 0.361 0.7359 0.048
Attenuated Essence 107 22.38 45.79% -0.631 -0.5054 -0.285
Back Against the Wall 257 28.8 52.53% -0.263 -0.2221 0.317
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 104 22.13 29.81% -0.345 -0.1391 0.19
Burn Brightest Before the End 76 26.42 40.79% -0.272 -0.2271 -0.091
Disintegrating Ecosystem 351 23.54 44.73% 0.211 0.7091 -0.418
Downward Spiral 440 24.43 44.77% -0.223 0.0271 0.259
Erosion of Will 314 24.78 38.85% -0.21 0.048 -0.251
Intensifying Exploitation 103 19.02 37.86% 0.001 0.2196 -0.171
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 155 31.69 67.1% -0.11 -0.4962 -0.33
Memory Fades to Dust 405 23.94 45.93% -0.32 -0.1145 0.097
Power Corrodes the Spirit 397 25.67 43.32% -0.165 0.033 0.224
Promising Farmlands 351 23.46 41.03% 0.237 0.5937 -0.382
Shattered Fragments of Power 82 25.96 48.78% -0.4 -0.1821 0.531
Slow Dissolution of Will 108 22.69 35.19% 0.406 0.8356 0.738
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 99 30.06 71.72% -0.025
The Border of Life and Death 27 24.93 70.37% 0.071 -0.2489
Thriving Communities 358 24.33 40.78% -0.218 0.101 -0.383
Thriving Crops 38 22.42 44.74% 0.425 0.3062 -0.11
Unnatural Proliferation 404 28.7 45.3% 0.026 0.1153 1.424
Untended Land Crumbles 404 23.4 40.59% -0.506 -0.2805 -0.313

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2250 45.97% 24.34 54.09% 0.112 0.9112 -0.514
B 2262 45.94% 24.89 54.07% 0.335 1.0657 0.534
C 2323 44.07% 24.48 56.05% 0.24 0.8443 -0.555
D 2128 45.65% 24.88 55.31% 0.263 1.0201 0.1
E 2085 45.2% 25.67 55.4% -0.064 0.5201 1.242
F 1849 44.34% 23.79 49.76% 0.156 0.8581 0.098
G 1699 42.31% 24.17 52.32% 0.308 1.0654 0.015
H 1701 42.67% 24.9 54.61% 0.126 0.7575 -0.233
East 1194 44.17% 23.05 40.95% 0.205 0.9887 -0.561
Northeast 562 42.96% 23.3 43.24% 0.077 0.8383 -0.222
Northwest 539 41.0% 21.36 38.78% 0.224 1.0664 -0.338
Southeast 449 40.76% 22.79 42.09% -0.068 0.5718 -0.327
Southwest 436 45.52% 18.69 34.17% -0.598 0.4474 -0.247
West 1189 46.38% 20.74 36.0% -0.781 -0.0054 0.077

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 22.67 33.33% 0.035 0.9088 -0.105
Not Using Events or Tokens 79 33.77% 14.38 44.3% 0.019 0.3963 -0.014
Skip Initial Invader Actions 509 17.01% 41.9 75.25% 0.773 0.4814 -0.068
Start of Game Growth 895 22.82% 39.58 71.84% 1.083 0.5262 0.294
Unlimited Undo 1146 30.21% 26.16 55.24% -0.664 -0.6005 -0.338
Using Tokens but Not Events 1082 39.74% 23.27 51.2% -0.273 -0.4003 -0.317

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4866 12.44 6.54%
II 3266 29.94 62.65%
III 2921 34.9 85.69%
IV 1461 38.84 99.93%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.373 Win Model: -0.16
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8426 44.87% 22.14 48.17%
2 2412 47.05% 25.09 53.69%
3 1070 45.18% 27.91 57.66%
4 448 44.2% 30.31 64.29%
5 35 45.71% 23.83 42.86%
6 123 18.7% 19.17 43.09%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 317
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2472
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2027
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1445
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2985
Lose: Invader deck ran out 141
Lose: Adversary condition 1068
Win: Sacrifice victory 66
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1845
Lose: Spirit destroyed 148

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)