Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 48 50.0% 27.35 -0.379 66.67% -0.847 -0.5692
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 34 58.82% 30.68 1.155 70.59% -0.606 -0.2124
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 31 70.97% 36.29 4.63 64.52% -0.591 0.2873
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 41 70.73% 36.17 3.536 51.22% -1.433 -0.1819
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 16 68.75% 38.56 5.345 43.75% -1.337 0.1841
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 66.67% 48.83 8.008 66.67% -0.513 1.4641
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 72.41% 37.48 4.679 31.03% -2.054 -0.0042
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 90 34.44% 28.21 -0.455 84.44% 0.03 0.0703
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 60 50.85% 31.37 1.417 86.67% 0.337 0.3083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 79 62.03% 35.33 3.68 69.62% -0.6 -0.5949
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 40 70.0% 43.17 7.285 75.0% -0.256 0.033
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 27 55.56% 45.22 8.245 74.07% -0.297 0.0701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 9 77.78% 42.11 7.047 44.44% -1.066 -0.2365
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 24 75.0% 35.83 2.905 25.0% -2.316 -1.0743
The Kingdom of England 0 1 66 43.94% 26.36 -1.333 80.3% -0.324 0.0086
The Kingdom of England 1 3 38 55.26% 30.58 0.8 71.05% -0.594 -0.09
The Kingdom of England 2 4 45 62.22% 33.4 1.682 64.44% -0.865 0.1031
The Kingdom of England 3 6 49 65.31% 34.61 2.293 46.94% -1.84 -0.2619
The Kingdom of England 4 7 41 70.73% 43.05 6.94 60.98% -0.954 0.5442
The Kingdom of England 5 9 7 57.14% 33.29 2.22 14.29% -1.984 0.0823
The Kingdom of England 6 11 64 65.63% 44.03 7.351 35.94% -2.1 0.1548
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 46 64.44% 24.41 -2.015 52.17% -1.236 -0.7213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 24 62.5% 29.08 0.59 62.5% -0.78 0.1163
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 48 45.83% 34.19 2.224 45.83% -2.091 0.0463
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 28 78.57% 35.82 3.912 39.29% -1.662 0.5233
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 28 46.43% 35.11 2.444 25.0% -2.638 -0.4911
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 62.5% 53.75 12.884 62.5% -0.349 1.4709
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 81 64.2% 41.46 6.269 25.93% -2.742 -0.6349
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 34 47.06% 24.74 -1.714 76.47% -0.123 -0.0377
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 34 73.53% 28.18 0.218 70.59% -0.261 -0.24
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 37 75.68% 27.81 -0.246 67.57% -0.412 -0.1808
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 57.5% 45.02 7.48 90.0% 0.429 0.7151
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 16 93.75% 30.13 1.546 43.75% -0.971 -0.1939
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10 80.0% 33.9 2.847 40.0% -1.015 0.1416
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 43 74.42% 40.67 6.106 51.16% -1.173 -0.0417
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 50 40.0% 27.96 -0.642 92.0% 0.633 0.5267
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 27 62.96% 28.85 0.417 55.56% -1.073 -0.3304
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 37 51.35% 37.97 4.149 75.68% -0.346 0.0859
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 26 73.08% 41.23 6.2 65.38% -0.75 0.4989
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 69.23% 49.38 9.464 76.92% -0.11 1.0172
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 100.0% 28.83 0.758 8.33% -2.038 -0.0196
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 78 93.59% 36.29 3.69 10.26% -2.928 -1.0229

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1420 50.42 29.7 -0.275 74.01% -0.098 0.2343
1 Thematic 187 65.78 31.01 0.496 57.22% -0.438 0.06
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 255 55.69 30.66 0.015 69.8% -0.398 -0.1982
2 Coastline 55 56.36 24.65 -2.343 74.55% -0.106 0.049
2 Fragment 21 66.67 32.14 1.405 85.71% 0.658 1.0534
2 Heart 5 0.0 31.8 0.941 100.0% 0.292 0.6143
2 Opposite Shores 79 51.9 27.27 -1.586 59.49% -0.568 -0.3386
2 Thematic 69 67.65 33.32 1.028 47.83% -0.332 -0.2714
2 Top to Top 7 57.14 34.57 2.39 100.0% 0.88 1.012
3 Coastline 3 33.33 34.67 3.004 100.0% 0.542 0.504
3 Other 12 9.09 34.83 2.941 83.33% -0.11 0.3095
3 Round (Default) 165 55.76 32.56 0.47 64.24% -0.411 -0.3549
3 Thematic 33 72.73 33.12 0.385 42.42% -0.346 -0.675
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 -3.915 100.0% 0.026 0.1515
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 6.786 100.0% 0.047 0.0935
4 Other 8 50.0 28.5 -1.077 75.0% -0.057 0.0551
4 Thematic 72 44.44 32.03 -0.336 65.28% 0.46 -0.5642
4 Trapezoid (Default) 97 50.52 35.76 0.971 69.07% -0.396 -0.3618
5 Other 2 50.0 60.5 8.057 100.0% 0.382 0.1272

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 87 27.62 -2.1 49.43% -1.76 0.3132
Aid From Lesser Spirits 76 31.72 -0.142 57.89% -1.182 0.7373
All Things Weaken 103 24.39 -3.832 37.86% -2.261 -0.1021
Back Against the Wall 73 29.66 -0.958 57.53% -1.349 0.7445
Disintegrating Ecosystem 101 23.97 -3.743 52.48% -1.656 0.5687
Downward Spiral 107 25.44 -3.042 49.53% -1.849 0.1719
Erosion of Will 102 25.17 -3.385 49.02% -1.868 0.3406
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 32 34.09 0.673 68.75% -0.6 0.0932
Memory Fades to Dust 90 25.2 -2.823 56.67% -1.512 0.7063
Power Corrodes the Spirit 116 27.77 -1.897 57.76% -1.492 0.5292
Promising Farmlands 95 27.78 -2.454 52.63% -1.428 0.7862
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 35.0 0.986 90.91% 0.351 0.762
Thriving Communities 100 27.54 -2.29 48.0% -1.676 0.417
Unnatural Proliferation 108 30.25 -0.829 50.93% -1.585 0.5047
Untended Land Crumbles 108 26.96 -2.62 49.07% -1.708 0.3974

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 449 51.12% 29.56 -0.622 68.82% -0.034 -1.1467
B 464 50.54% 30.84 -0.045 68.1% 0.083 -1.125
C 490 54.08% 30.57 -0.033 71.02% 0.33 -1.1096
D 441 53.53% 29.91 -0.275 72.56% 0.378 -0.8237
E 414 50.97% 30.82 0.091 72.71% 0.205 -1.1074
F 343 53.8% 32.53 0.521 69.68% 0.145 -1.1202
G 322 50.0% 31.29 0.25 72.67% 0.25 -1.0065
H 319 49.84% 33.15 1.144 76.18% 0.513 -0.7531
East 174 57.23% 33.1 0.981 54.6% -0.054 -1.0345
Northeast 113 57.14% 33.41 0.784 67.26% 0.139 -0.7923
Northwest 92 57.61% 33.76 1.313 69.57% 0.336 -0.6633
Southeast 101 54.46% 33.0 0.888 52.48% 0.125 -0.9006
Southwest 96 66.67% 28.55 -2.161 43.75% -0.415 -1.0345
West 136 58.82% 30.76 -0.614 53.68% -0.432 -1.1572

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 23.75 -4.311 50.0% -1.092 0.9623
Not Using Events or Tokens 18 44.44% 23.39 -2.82 72.22% -0.447 -0.2291
Skip Initial Invader Actions 82 24.69% 45.54 3.704 74.39% -0.681 -1.3743
Start of Game Growth 162 27.5% 45.77 5.765 82.72% 1.335 0.872
Unlimited Undo 178 47.43% 33.86 0.965 70.22% -0.04 -0.4606
Using Tokens but Not Events 195 36.13% 26.84 -1.415 81.54% 0.076 0.024

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 480 22.34 18.33%
II 849 30.81 69.73%
III 771 34.31 87.16%
IV 392 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.137 Win Model: -0.06
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1616 52.11% 29.86 72.22%
2 490 56.65% 30.14 66.73%
3 211 57.14% 32.28 61.14%
4 175 46.86% 34.4 69.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 88
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 661
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 587
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 387
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26
Lose: Adversary condition 235
Win: Sacrifice victory 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 446
Lose: Spirit destroyed 41

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)