Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 17 35.29% 13.18 2.802 29.41% 0.197 0.6835
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 17 35.29% 20.53 2.578 35.29% 0.153 0.1729
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 14 14.29% 7.79 -8.555 14.29% -1.014 -0.8604
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 9 33.33% 15.11 2.011 22.22% -0.152 -0.025
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 4 25.0% 6.5 -3.62 0.0% -0.656 -0.1523
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 7 57.14% 13.29 -1.675 0.0% -1.526 -0.5524
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 0.0 -2.138 0.0% -0.072 1.8456
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 307 40.39% 21.52 -0.287 49.51% -0.694 -0.221
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 227 44.49% 21.95 -2.613 39.65% -0.635 -0.3442
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 149 58.39% 23.89 -2.719 36.24% -0.969 -0.4262
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 179 59.22% 27.28 3.425 27.93% -0.807 0.1391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 67 56.72% 25.49 -3.357 20.9% -0.413 0.8653
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 45 37.78% 18.67 -7.464 13.33% -0.6 0.8676
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 149 61.64% 30.91 -4.689 16.78% -0.692 1.1054
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 371 35.04% 22.63 0.181 61.73% 0.016 0.2388
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 409 37.75% 23.69 0.978 60.88% 0.348 0.3149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 344 49.71% 29.42 2.179 57.27% -0.123 -0.11
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 225 63.56% 31.61 2.447 49.33% -0.095 0.1464
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 131 47.33% 34.65 1.994 54.96% -0.465 -0.27
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 66 63.64% 23.45 -8.25 16.67% -0.396 -0.0182
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 99 65.66% 29.13 -2.473 16.16% -0.915 0.3255
The Kingdom of England 0 1 294 39.46% 19.81 0.555 52.38% 0.036 0.3459
The Kingdom of England 1 3 223 40.36% 23.69 -4.632 51.12% -1.057 -0.7372
The Kingdom of England 2 4 268 49.63% 22.81 -1.162 39.18% -0.83 -0.351
The Kingdom of England 3 6 173 57.23% 26.36 -2.932 31.21% -0.475 0.5651
The Kingdom of England 4 7 152 61.84% 30.6 8.498 37.5% -0.292 0.7077
The Kingdom of England 5 9 75 54.67% 21.4 -7.43 12.0% -1.236 0.2748
The Kingdom of England 6 11 220 68.54% 33.29 -8.345 15.91% -0.987 0.8553
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 300 43.48% 18.7 -1.671 40.67% -0.515 -0.1386
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 195 50.26% 17.61 -3.483 30.26% -1.335 -0.4575
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 191 46.07% 26.2 -4.971 32.98% -1.196 -0.0121
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 131 50.38% 31.62 7.413 36.64% -0.063 1.0769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 92 45.65% 27.78 -6.714 17.39% -1.202 0.1074
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 64 50.0% 31.31 1.263 21.88% -0.545 0.7278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 319 60.82% 38.74 5.084 17.87% -1.309 0.0835
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 157 17.83% 18.24 -3.182 45.22% -0.223 0.0966
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 140 35.71% 23.38 2.217 47.14% -0.075 0.4132
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 124 33.06% 20.97 3.372 39.52% 0.149 0.5552
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 82 41.46% 31.24 -0.869 48.78% -0.222 -0.1937
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 56 50.0% 27.45 2.624 41.07% -0.907 -0.4002
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 69 60.87% 23.2 1.207 20.29% -0.692 -0.2347
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 147 68.03% 30.07 10.351 6.8% -0.194 0.8866
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 252 38.49% 19.88 2.166 55.16% 0.538 0.7805
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 259 46.72% 19.56 -4.806 47.88% -1.028 -0.9933
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 244 44.67% 23.36 0.692 51.64% -0.105 0.136
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 216 64.81% 27.19 -3.24 40.74% -0.833 -0.5822
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 126 67.46% 22.27 -2.547 29.37% -1.344 -0.59
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 56 66.07% 23.68 1.851 21.43% -0.724 0.3748
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 152 73.03% 30.65 -4.642 32.24% -1.577 -0.6807
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 250 34.4% 22.27 0.071 61.2% -0.092 0.1483
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 190 50.0% 20.69 0.278 40.0% -0.091 0.663
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 210 44.76% 24.07 -2.814 45.71% -0.589 -0.2215
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 131 61.83% 27.34 -1.918 35.88% -1.434 -0.2639
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 74 48.65% 37.41 19.09 55.41% 0.509 1.4657
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 61 67.21% 18.39 -7.601 6.56% -0.855 0.7262
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 155 81.29% 30.8 -8.928 10.97% -0.504 1.0126

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5993 45.44 23.64 54.23% 0.451 0.9775 -0.119
1 Thematic 995 47.94 20.89 36.58% -0.313 0.5414 0.025
2 Archipelago 25 84.0 31.76 60.0% -0.596 0.4586
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1183 44.55 22.55 49.96% -0.091 0.1864 -0.085
2 Coastline 262 43.3 28.98 73.28% 0.798 0.9009 -0.867
2 Fragment 43 69.77 28.95 72.09% 0.251 0.2639 0.339
2 Heart 30 70.0 24.47 46.67% -0.064 0.048 0.433
2 Opposite Shores 303 52.81 27.62 59.08% 0.78 1.1164 0.085
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 339 47.93 20.94 33.33% -0.738 -0.0481 -0.02
2 Top to Top 42 47.62 27.29 64.29% 0.353 0.5947 0.341
3 Archipelago 6 100.0 42.67 83.33% 0.365
3 Coastline 6 66.67 32.67 66.67% -0.432
3 Other 38 51.35 27.84 71.05% -0.463 -1.0654 0.642
3 Round (Default) 842 42.76 28.24 58.79% 0.118 0.1237 0.098
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 17.5 50.0%
3 Thematic 111 56.76 27.85 36.94% -0.147 -0.0621 -0.513
4 Archipelago 12 8.33 34.25 91.67%
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 2 0.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Other 22 59.09 19.59 45.45% 0.661
4 Thematic 135 40.0 32.44 71.11% 0.186 0.4532 -0.525
4 Trapezoid (Default) 252 50.0 30.16 58.73% 0.207 0.3713 -0.131
5 Archipelago 3 66.67 19.67 66.67%
5 Other 35 51.43 27.43 40.0% -0.584
5 Thematic 6 16.67 33.0 83.33%
6 Archipelago 10 20.0 34.9 100.0%
6 Other 12 8.33 22.17 58.33% -0.475 -0.5053 -0.166
6 Star 5 40.0 38.8 40.0% -0.103
6 Thematic 43 20.93 20.47 41.86% -0.115 -0.0119 -0.019
6 Two Centers (Default) 28 17.86 17.14 39.29% -0.159 0.4057 -0.218
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 2 0.0 27.0 50.0% -0.043

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 320 26.07 42.5% -0.082 0.1669 0.351
Aid From Lesser Spirits 265 29.78 49.43% 0.247 0.129 0.663
All Things Weaken 337 24.43 39.17% -0.303 0.0341 -0.082
Attenuated Essence 84 22.31 45.24% 0.549 0.5755 -0.525
Back Against the Wall 239 28.98 53.56% 0.311 0.3122 0.54
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 76 22.74 31.58% -0.434 -0.2167 -0.053
Burn Brightest Before the End 54 27.0 38.89% -0.175 -0.1934 0.799
Disintegrating Ecosystem 307 24.16 46.25% 0.362 0.7551 0.553
Downward Spiral 377 24.55 47.75% -0.781 -0.673 1.012
Erosion of Will 282 25.06 40.07% 0.4 0.7518 0.141
Intensifying Exploitation 79 19.84 40.51% 0.496 0.7418 -0.307
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 140 32.94 70.71% -0.193 -0.7174 0.802
Memory Fades to Dust 366 24.46 48.09% 0.35 0.5973 0.083
Power Corrodes the Spirit 356 25.82 44.1% -0.705 -0.4827 0.751
Promising Farmlands 307 23.92 42.35% 0.443 0.7263 0.021
Shattered Fragments of Power 61 26.28 54.1% -0.111 -0.0338 -0.282
Slow Dissolution of Will 82 22.98 35.37% 0.342 0.7389 0.173
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 94 29.64 71.28% 1.089 0.394 0.643
The Border of Life and Death 22 25.73 72.73% 1.141 0.5405 -0.187
Thriving Communities 322 24.8 40.99% -0.514 -0.1572 0.504
Thriving Crops 31 22.74 45.16% -0.217 -0.4136 -0.299
Unnatural Proliferation 372 28.69 44.62% -0.616 -0.4534 1.093
Untended Land Crumbles 365 23.84 41.92% -0.002 0.2299 0.413

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1958 46.83% 25.15 55.67% -0.223 0.7823 -0.123
B 1976 46.09% 25.32 55.16% -0.043 0.8768 -0.376
C 2053 44.34% 25.2 58.16% -0.171 0.5637 0.112
D 1794 46.34% 25.3 58.53% -0.154 0.8239 0.102
E 1825 45.97% 26.35 57.15% -0.015 0.8048 -0.383
F 1628 45.57% 24.52 51.17% -0.325 0.5485 -0.503
G 1489 43.35% 25.02 53.93% 0.226 1.0355 -0.33
H 1438 43.12% 25.5 56.19% 0.004 0.8194 -0.127
East 1035 46.13% 24.36 43.38% -0.855 0.0475 -0.678
Northeast 489 45.29% 24.27 44.79% 0.029 0.8365 -0.499
Northwest 464 42.24% 22.44 40.52% -0.444 0.4557 -0.655
Southeast 392 42.6% 24.56 45.92% 0.461 1.312 -0.466
Southwest 386 48.19% 20.16 37.05% -0.912 0.4632 -0.85
West 1025 47.71% 22.16 38.73% -0.452 0.5026 -0.62

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 15.21 31.58%
Not Using Events or Tokens 72 32.86% 15.1 45.83% -0.086 0.2819 -0.107
Skip Initial Invader Actions 430 15.14% 41.81 79.07% -0.492 -1.0764 0.632
Start of Game Growth 749 21.69% 39.48 74.77% 0.757 0.2433 0.528
Unlimited Undo 1005 30.7% 25.82 57.31% -0.351 -0.4601 0.343
Using Tokens but Not Events 942 39.03% 23.43 54.25% 0.296 0.2707 -1.878

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3979 13.33 7.31%
II 2880 30.1 63.89%
III 2621 34.83 85.77%
IV 1314 38.67 99.92%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.228 Win Model: 0.215
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7201 45.57% 22.87 50.73%
2 2093 48.25% 25.48 55.09%
3 955 45.49% 28.56 58.22%
4 411 45.26% 30.85 64.48%
5 33 45.45% 25.27 45.45%
6 101 19.8% 22.24 49.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 290
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2218
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1821
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1299
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2289
Lose: Invader deck ran out 123
Lose: Adversary condition 930
Win: Sacrifice victory 64
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1625
Lose: Spirit destroyed 135

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)