Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 107 49.53% 28.79 2.257 69.16% 0.293 0.8606
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 84 64.29% 30.65 -1.449 60.71% -0.91 -0.2208
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 61 73.77% 35.05 2.99 59.02% -0.38 0.6668
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 80 71.25% 35.61 0.124 47.5% -1.414 -0.0257
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 37 72.97% 33.89 0.521 27.03% -0.758 0.9453
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 18 77.78% 37.44 0.563 33.33% -0.25 1.349
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 93 72.04% 36.11 4.761 19.35% -1.084 1.1067
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 174 42.53% 28.37 -2.692 81.03% -0.406 -0.1183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 143 50.7% 29.65 0.659 76.92% -0.201 -0.4184
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 145 58.62% 37.39 7.352 75.86% 0.704 0.9164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 81 71.6% 41.17 13.543 65.43% 0.535 1.0319
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 43 60.47% 46.09 13.981 72.09% 0.433 0.9701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 24 87.5% 35.38 2.802 25.0% -0.804 0.3748
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 48 83.33% 37.13 2.074 22.92% -0.805 0.7679
The Kingdom of England 0 1 120 45.83% 26.33 -1.737 75.83% -0.45 -0.0346
The Kingdom of England 1 3 66 62.12% 31.88 -0.359 71.21% -0.732 -0.0186
The Kingdom of England 2 4 87 72.41% 29.78 0.892 50.57% -0.532 0.4967
The Kingdom of England 3 6 91 69.23% 34.43 1.175 43.96% -0.885 0.7736
The Kingdom of England 4 7 66 75.76% 40.09 7.31 51.52% -0.477 1.1414
The Kingdom of England 5 9 16 75.0% 32.31 0.0 18.75%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 96 67.71% 42.61 4.896 31.25% -0.81 1.5959
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 107 58.49% 26.34 2.671 58.88% 0.341 1.1433
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 64 68.75% 29.34 -0.909 56.25% -0.525 0.3482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 104 52.88% 31.78 3.075 38.46% -0.385 1.8856
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 54 64.81% 36.02 2.721 35.19% -1.218 1.114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 55 50.91% 31.78 -1.414 16.36% -1.149 1.2577
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 17 70.59% 44.88 21.127 41.18% 0.374 2.2365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 133 63.16% 41.92 1.546 24.81% -2.002 0.3121
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 16 18.75% 32.31 2.307 81.25% 0.681 0.5294
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 8 37.5% 37.0 4.001 75.0% -0.197 0.689
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 80.0% 28.8 2.836 60.0% 0.228 1.2035
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 75.0% 44.0 6.963 75.0% 0.449 1.1678
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 42.5 7.072 50.0% -0.311 1.084
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 0.0% 43.0 3.997 0.0% -0.365 1.2746
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 91 53.85% 25.31 -3.484 71.43% -0.823 -0.6907
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 84 64.29% 30.23 5.49 77.38% 0.816 0.7769
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 96 65.63% 29.58 3.756 64.58% -0.151 0.3275
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 102 72.55% 35.23 -0.781 58.82% -0.766 -0.4934
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 51 92.16% 30.59 -2.512 39.22% -1.11 -0.2724
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 18 77.78% 34.17 0.0 38.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 67 76.12% 41.45 4.199 52.24% -0.425 0.7945
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 100 42.0% 28.43 -2.198 84.0% -0.167 -0.3015
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 67 67.16% 29.13 -3.662 53.73% -1.068 -0.2904
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 75 56.0% 37.37 9.05 72.0% 0.324 0.8013
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 65 78.46% 37.09 9.485 53.85% 0.177 1.3551
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 20 60.0% 49.75 -1.197 75.0% -0.399 0.9363
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 100.0% 27.9 3.474 5.0% -0.283 1.5673
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 92 94.57% 37.58 11.975 14.13% -0.294 1.6165

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2734 51.37 29.33 72.09% 0.574 1.021 0.028
1 Thematic 398 67.59 30.1 52.51% -0.444 0.1583 0.005
2 Archipelago 3 100.0 41.67 66.67%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 490 55.71 30.84 65.92% 0.33 0.7211 -0.01
2 Coastline 98 60.2 24.24 73.47% -0.184 -0.0962 -0.794
2 Fragment 28 71.43 28.71 75.0% -0.364 -0.2984 -0.369
2 Heart 9 22.22 25.89 77.78% 0.678
2 Opposite Shores 155 60.65 29.47 56.77% -0.149 0.3442 0.101
2 Thematic 124 68.29 31.69 48.39% -0.416 0.0518 -0.463
2 Top to Top 19 47.37 31.0 89.47% 0.23 0.5117 -0.443
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 31.67 66.67%
3 Coastline 4 50.0 30.0 100.0%
3 Other 21 25.0 32.62 85.71% 0.146 -0.9433 0.494
3 Round (Default) 279 58.06 31.86 65.59% 0.173 0.4414 0.219
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 17.5 50.0%
3 Thematic 50 68.0 33.2 48.0% -0.114 -0.3372 -0.36
4 Archipelago 8 12.5 28.5 87.5%
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0%
4 Other 10 50.0 28.0 80.0% 0.711
4 Thematic 104 37.5 32.88 73.08% 0.645 0.7408 -0.217
4 Trapezoid (Default) 152 51.97 34.72 67.11% 0.372 0.2345 0.353
5 Archipelago 2 50.0 20.0 100.0%
5 Other 15 60.0 31.53 46.67% -0.151 0.1184 -0.222
5 Thematic 2 0.0 41.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 5 40.0 29.6 100.0%
6 Other 2 0.0 34.0 50.0% -0.365 0.5233 -0.28
6 Thematic 11 18.18 29.64 72.73% -0.253 0.1097
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 34.67 100.0%
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 54.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 182 26.42 42.31% -1.04 0.7914 0.194
Aid From Lesser Spirits 161 31.37 52.17% -0.811 0.8436 -0.197
All Things Weaken 182 25.37 43.41% 0.384 2.3607 -0.403
Back Against the Wall 145 29.03 52.41% -1.235 0.6234 0.143
Disintegrating Ecosystem 182 23.65 49.45% -1.094 0.8806 -0.312
Downward Spiral 213 24.85 48.36% -0.636 1.266 0.656
Erosion of Will 178 26.19 46.07% -0.543 1.5005 0.127
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 67 33.39 77.61% -0.699 -0.127 -0.069
Memory Fades to Dust 199 26.48 53.27% -1.544 0.4351 -0.258
Power Corrodes the Spirit 218 26.82 51.83% -2.018 -0.1259 0.252
Promising Farmlands 164 27.69 50.61% -0.177 1.8623 -0.13
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 54 34.17 87.04% 0.455 0.8959 0.718
Thriving Communities 186 26.39 46.77% -0.739 1.2257 -0.127
Unnatural Proliferation 221 28.69 48.42% -1.038 0.8675 0.631
Untended Land Crumbles 211 25.19 46.92% -0.898 1.1361 -0.236

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 901 54.22% 29.94 68.04% -0.142 0.6259 0.371
B 866 53.41% 30.09 67.55% 0.334 1.0265 0.236
C 914 54.22% 29.79 69.26% 0.063 0.6276 0.641
D 798 54.02% 29.83 71.18% 0.188 0.9563 0.29
E 767 52.02% 30.64 71.06% 0.02 0.6194 0.115
F 657 56.1% 30.95 65.3% -0.286 0.4235 0.088
G 611 50.08% 30.25 70.54% -0.197 0.529 -0.377
H 597 51.93% 31.94 72.7% -0.184 0.5062 0.6
East 468 57.39% 32.25 58.33% -0.612 0.0103 -0.487
Northeast 206 55.12% 32.77 63.59% 0.038 0.7194 -0.613
Northwest 182 58.24% 31.36 59.34% -0.196 0.8708 -0.46
Southeast 182 49.45% 32.6 60.99% -0.099 0.6286 -0.014
Southwest 175 60.57% 29.17 54.29% 0.019 0.9897 -0.573
West 444 61.94% 30.49 55.18% 0.292 1.295 -0.723

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 23.6 60.0% 0.106 2.1179
Not Using Events or Tokens 29 42.86% 26.0 75.86% -0.151 0.0637
Skip Initial Invader Actions 117 24.14% 44.56 77.78% -0.719 -0.8124
Start of Game Growth 252 27.71% 44.78 83.73% 0.055 -0.6529 -0.436
Unlimited Undo 324 49.06% 33.86 74.07% -0.178 -0.8772 0.138
Using Tokens but Not Events 399 38.23% 28.17 79.95% 0.052 0.0068 -0.797

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 946 22.6 16.07%
II 1585 31.02 67.26%
III 1447 34.59 86.52%
IV 757 37.83 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.192 Win Model: 0.108
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3174 53.64% 29.39 69.38%
2 908 58.21% 30.25 64.43%
3 345 58.14% 31.66 63.48%
4 276 44.57% 33.88 71.38%
5 9 55.56% 25.67 55.56%
6 23 26.09% 31.43 82.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 151
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1230
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1052
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 746
Lose: Invader deck ran out 64
Lose: Adversary condition 484
Win: Sacrifice victory 48
Lose: Blight pool ran out 889
Lose: Spirit destroyed 71

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)