Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 101 51.49% 28.55 4.079 68.32% 0.711 1.2627
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 79 62.03% 31.2 0.358 63.29% -0.84 0.0379
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 60 73.33% 34.82 -1.619 58.33% -0.234 0.8848
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 78 71.79% 35.53 -1.789 47.44% -1.397 0.1334
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 36 75.0% 33.94 -1.85 27.78% -0.904 0.6837
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 18 77.78% 37.44 5.233 33.33% -0.304 1.2584
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 92 72.83% 36.2 4.852 19.57% -0.945 1.3151
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 167 42.51% 28.43 -2.913 81.44% -0.034 0.2101
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 135 50.0% 29.86 -0.238 77.78% -0.475 -0.6018
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 141 60.28% 37.16 4.541 75.18% 0.064 0.1799
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 80 71.25% 41.05 3.514 65.0% -0.238 0.136
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 41 60.98% 45.61 14.399 70.73% 0.455 0.921
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 21 85.71% 35.19 -2.609 23.81% -0.659 0.3261
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 47 82.98% 37.04 8.48 23.4% -0.954 0.6215
The Kingdom of England 0 1 112 44.64% 26.55 -0.4 77.68% -0.462 0.0543
The Kingdom of England 1 3 65 61.54% 32.11 1.587 72.31% -0.219 0.3898
The Kingdom of England 2 4 84 71.43% 29.67 -0.725 50.0% -1.095 0.0325
The Kingdom of England 3 6 87 70.11% 34.45 4.219 43.68% -0.537 1.2062
The Kingdom of England 4 7 65 75.38% 39.8 4.997 50.77% -0.866 0.7129
The Kingdom of England 5 9 16 75.0% 32.31 0.0 18.75%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 95 67.37% 42.63 6.12 31.58% -1.533 0.766
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 106 58.1% 26.47 1.618 59.43% -0.06 0.8418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 62 67.74% 29.55 1.254 56.45% -0.472 0.4187
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 101 53.47% 31.25 0.017 36.63% -0.808 1.5942
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 52 65.38% 35.75 0.934 34.62% -1.081 1.3032
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 54 50.0% 31.74 -1.767 16.67% -0.468 2.0071
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 16 68.75% 43.25 0.0 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 131 62.6% 42.04 1.939 25.19% -1.737 0.6302
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 11 9.09% 31.64 0.722 81.82% 0.078 -0.0459
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 0.0% 40.0 5.262 80.0% 0.114 0.9589
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 40.0 5.488 100.0% 0.157 0.9858
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4 75.0% 51.5 11.068 100.0% 0.812 1.6824
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 26.0 -0.882 0.0% -0.423 1.0083
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 0.0% 43.0 2.806 0.0% -0.283 1.4161
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 89 53.93% 25.4 -1.766 71.91% -0.386 -0.2191
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 81 64.2% 30.09 7.301 76.54% 0.46 0.2366
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 95 65.26% 29.48 5.377 64.21% -0.193 0.2607
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 96 70.83% 35.91 0.0 60.42%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 49 91.84% 30.47 -3.223 38.78% -1.125 -0.1727
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 18 77.78% 34.17 13.413 38.89% 0.309 1.2893
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 64 76.56% 41.88 4.497 53.13% -0.269 0.9228
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 96 40.63% 28.76 0.007 85.42% 0.421 0.3642
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 64 67.19% 29.63 -0.383 56.25% -0.152 0.6224
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 75 56.0% 37.37 7.737 72.0% 0.31 1.0207
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 64 78.13% 36.89 9.31 53.13% 0.035 1.3741
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 20 60.0% 49.75 -2.721 75.0% -0.505 0.8805
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 19 100.0% 27.58 0.0 5.26%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 92 94.57% 37.58 7.814 14.13% -0.977 1.0421

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2649 51.17 29.37 72.18% 0.267 1.2834 -0.015
1 Thematic 383 66.84 30.4 53.0% -0.258 0.9142 0.003
2 Archipelago 3 100.0 41.67 66.67%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 469 55.44 30.58 66.1% 0.716 1.4672 0.126
2 Coastline 95 60.0 24.37 73.68% -0.356 0.2463 -0.796
2 Fragment 27 70.37 29.48 77.78% -0.384
2 Heart 9 22.22 25.89 77.78% 0.639
2 Opposite Shores 154 61.04 29.49 56.49% -0.068 0.9248 0.078
2 Thematic 121 67.5 31.93 49.59% -0.217 0.4818 -0.457
2 Top to Top 19 47.37 31.0 89.47% 0.236 0.7461 -0.44
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 31.67 66.67%
3 Coastline 4 50.0 30.0 100.0%
3 Other 21 25.0 32.62 85.71% -0.308 -0.344 0.476
3 Round (Default) 269 57.99 32.02 65.06% 0.272 0.8666 0.268
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 17.5 50.0%
3 Thematic 48 70.83 32.83 45.83% -0.257 -0.2951 -0.347
4 Archipelago 8 12.5 28.5 87.5%
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0%
4 Other 10 50.0 28.0 80.0% 0.7
4 Thematic 102 38.24 32.81 72.55% 0.637 1.1659 -0.215
4 Trapezoid (Default) 146 51.37 34.73 65.75% -0.227 -0.2545 0.38
5 Archipelago 2 50.0 20.0 100.0%
5 Other 15 60.0 31.53 46.67% -0.406 -0.2373 -0.217
5 Thematic 2 0.0 41.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 5 40.0 29.6 100.0% 0.244 -0.0115
6 Other 2 0.0 34.0 50.0% -0.046 0.7631 -0.306
6 Thematic 10 20.0 29.0 70.0% -0.204 -0.4823
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 34.67 100.0%
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 54.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 177 26.24 42.37% -0.749 1.1542 0.16
Aid From Lesser Spirits 151 31.13 50.33% -1.426 0.3043 -0.327
All Things Weaken 178 25.4 42.13% -0.378 1.6073 -0.439
Back Against the Wall 136 29.69 54.41% -0.459 1.3578 0.178
Disintegrating Ecosystem 175 23.78 50.29% -0.81 1.2402 -0.339
Downward Spiral 203 25.0 48.28% -0.651 1.3417 0.637
Erosion of Will 174 26.11 45.98% 0.289 2.3722 0.118
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 66 33.27 78.79% -0.099 0.3424 0.044
Memory Fades to Dust 190 26.89 53.68% -1.531 0.5531 -0.327
Power Corrodes the Spirit 214 27.06 52.8% -1.568 0.3701 0.24
Promising Farmlands 158 27.33 50.63% 0.441 2.4872 -0.145
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 53 34.45 86.79% 0.373 0.7977 0.734
Thriving Communities 179 26.49 46.93% -0.468 1.5154 -0.08
Unnatural Proliferation 214 28.58 47.66% -0.951 1.0138 0.634
Untended Land Crumbles 204 25.09 47.06% -0.637 1.3561 -0.483

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 875 54.0% 29.91 68.0% -0.01 0.7873 0.382
B 831 53.01% 30.07 67.15% 0.111 0.8547 0.228
C 885 53.85% 29.75 68.93% -0.126 0.4429 0.68
D 771 54.23% 29.74 70.69% -0.0 0.7956 0.342
E 744 51.34% 30.79 71.37% 0.474 1.121 0.057
F 647 56.04% 31.04 65.53% -0.732 -0.0081 0.092
G 588 50.0% 30.31 70.92% 0.185 0.9164 -0.25
H 580 51.9% 31.89 72.41% -0.438 0.2745 0.53
East 457 57.68% 32.21 57.99% -0.473 0.2956 -0.471
Northeast 201 55.5% 32.7 63.18% -0.295 0.5647 -0.627
Northwest 175 57.14% 31.78 60.57% 0.059 1.1361 -0.469
Southeast 176 50.0% 32.53 60.23% 0.123 0.829 0.0
Southwest 166 60.84% 29.33 54.22% 0.554 1.679 -0.525
West 424 61.56% 30.8 55.9% -0.107 0.8472 -0.72

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 23.6 60.0% 0.177 2.3067
Not Using Events or Tokens 28 44.44% 25.21 75.0% -0.352 -0.1772
Skip Initial Invader Actions 117 24.14% 44.56 77.78% -0.456 -0.5984
Start of Game Growth 246 27.57% 44.76 83.74% 0.271 -0.4896 -0.447
Unlimited Undo 313 48.22% 33.77 73.8% -0.278 -0.8823 0.154
Using Tokens but Not Events 380 36.17% 28.43 81.58% 0.321 0.1644 -0.745

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 913 22.56 16.21%
II 1543 30.98 67.27%
III 1398 34.53 86.55%
IV 731 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.054 Win Model: -0.01
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3067 53.3% 29.48 69.61%
2 885 58.14% 30.12 64.52%
3 334 58.56% 31.72 62.57%
4 268 44.4% 33.85 70.52%
5 9 55.56% 25.67 55.56%
6 22 27.27% 31.23 81.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 147
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1189
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1024
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 720
Lose: Invader deck ran out 60
Lose: Adversary condition 474
Win: Sacrifice victory 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 856
Lose: Spirit destroyed 68

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)