Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 55 21.82% 12.64 4.056 32.73% 0.499 0.828
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 32 31.25% 18.56 -3.596 31.25% -0.343 -0.3276
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 36 19.44% 13.39 1.235 25.0% 0.092 0.4682
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 30 33.33% 15.43 -4.723 23.33% -0.811 -0.4376
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 18 44.44% 23.33 11.842 33.33% 0.381 1.1514
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 15 53.33% 14.93 -0.241 6.67% -0.297 0.7924
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 12 50.0% 15.42 -1.619 8.33% -0.571 1.5111
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 358 39.66% 20.54 2.155 47.49% 0.38 0.9637
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 250 42.8% 21.69 -4.437 40.0% -0.263 -0.3059
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 177 57.06% 21.95 -6.521 32.2% -0.909 -0.3245
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 217 61.29% 26.04 0.562 26.73% -0.766 0.0351
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 75 50.67% 24.29 6.412 21.33% 0.248 1.5885
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 68 45.59% 19.56 0.62 11.76% -1.059 0.471
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 169 61.45% 30.14 -0.396 16.57% -0.174 1.5593
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 446 32.74% 21.23 -1.917 57.4% 0.043 0.3285
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 473 35.81% 22.54 -3.415 57.72% -0.431 -0.3806
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 396 48.74% 28.86 -5.356 56.57% -0.505 -0.4664
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 245 61.63% 30.36 5.075 47.35% 0.198 0.5211
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 159 49.69% 32.96 3.597 52.2% -0.252 -0.0663
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 74 63.51% 22.08 8.157 16.22% -0.005 0.3889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 126 68.25% 27.95 3.492 13.49% 0.157 1.4884
The Kingdom of England 0 1 352 36.65% 19.26 -4.836 50.85% -0.346 -0.0862
The Kingdom of England 1 3 256 40.63% 23.69 0.695 52.34% 0.611 0.8879
The Kingdom of England 2 4 294 49.66% 22.64 -1.969 39.12% -0.647 -0.1551
The Kingdom of England 3 6 212 57.55% 25.38 -3.99 30.19% -0.72 0.5777
The Kingdom of England 4 7 162 61.73% 29.64 7.675 35.8% -0.12 0.9654
The Kingdom of England 5 9 86 53.49% 22.24 0.0 13.95%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 244 66.24% 32.06 15.345 15.57% 0.125 2.0589
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 354 43.34% 17.95 -5.247 39.27% -0.932 -0.6544
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 220 50.45% 17.59 0.0 29.55%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 238 41.18% 25.11 6.41 31.93% 0.051 0.9761
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 168 48.21% 32.3 0.521 39.88% -0.255 0.9992
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 101 42.57% 26.84 -6.274 16.83% -0.734 0.5962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 56.82% 31.72 12.531 19.32% -0.179 0.5389
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 405 57.96% 36.55 0.0 14.81%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 191 17.8% 17.6 -6.411 43.46% -0.541 -0.488
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 182 37.91% 21.44 -1.09 41.21% -0.457 0.0073
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 141 32.62% 21.83 3.806 41.13% 0.006 0.5676
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 124 42.74% 30.82 5.385 47.58% 0.389 0.4832
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 71 47.89% 25.31 -2.378 36.62% -0.159 0.5801
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 75 64.0% 21.97 1.875 18.67% -0.24 0.3703
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 219 66.82% 31.02 -2.962 6.85% -0.468 0.7287
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 300 35.67% 18.52 -2.662 51.33% -0.141 0.1164
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 313 42.49% 17.62 -5.615 42.81% -0.942 -0.8181
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 315 47.62% 23.77 3.41 52.06% 0.597 0.8158
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 227 64.76% 27.21 -4.472 40.97% -0.066 0.2017
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 148 67.57% 20.62 -1.295 26.35% -0.317 0.1931
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 65 58.46% 23.08 0.0 23.08%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 180 67.6% 28.43 1.637 28.89% -0.305 0.3623
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 316 30.38% 19.99 -2.289 53.8% -0.282 0.0969
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 215 48.84% 20.61 -2.83 40.0% -0.27 0.4704
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 233 44.64% 24.87 8.586 47.21% 0.718 1.1077
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 160 60.0% 27.02 4.706 35.63% 0.013 0.8389
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 99 43.43% 34.4 15.318 50.51% 0.495 1.2461
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 72 61.11% 16.0 0.0 5.56%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 174 78.03% 30.14 -3.902 12.07% -0.713 0.8775

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7045 44.79 22.96 51.48% -0.95 -0.5572 0.401
1 Thematic 1209 46.44 19.52 34.24% -1.031 -0.2941 -0.352
2 Archipelago 25 84.0 31.76 60.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1373 43.59 22.05 48.07% -0.152 0.111 -1.309
2 Coastline 337 39.88 29.55 72.4% 1.304 1.4008 0.167
2 Fragment 57 76.79 26.77 61.4% 0.127 0.618 0.727
2 Heart 33 69.7 22.94 42.42%
2 Opposite Shores 342 51.75 27.41 59.06% 0.728 0.939 0.638
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 395 45.43 20.15 32.41% -0.093 0.4644 -0.399
2 Top to Top 44 47.73 27.5 65.91%
3 Archipelago 6 100.0 42.67 83.33%
3 Coastline 7 57.14 33.86 71.43% 0.143 -0.7311
3 Other 41 55.0 28.27 70.73% 0.472 0.2603
3 Round (Default) 962 42.62 27.86 58.84% 0.069 0.2814 0.15
3 Sunrise 3 33.33 29.0 66.67%
3 Thematic 130 51.54 25.85 34.62% 0.273 0.0887 -0.066
4 Archipelago 15 6.67 29.53 80.0%
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 2 0.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Other 25 60.0 18.84 40.0% -0.215 -0.6145
4 Thematic 139 40.29 32.02 69.78% 0.044 0.233
4 Trapezoid (Default) 285 48.77 29.6 59.65% -0.155 0.1085 0.54
5 Archipelago 3 66.67 19.67 66.67%
5 Other 37 51.35 25.95 37.84% -0.159 -0.4189
5 Thematic 6 16.67 33.0 83.33%
6 Archipelago 10 20.0 34.9 100.0%
6 Other 15 6.67 17.73 46.67%
6 Star 5 40.0 38.8 40.0%
6 Thematic 52 17.31 18.71 38.46% -0.141 0.1216 -0.064
6 Two Centers (Default) 37 21.62 13.49 32.43% -0.249 0.8305 -0.393
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 3 0.0 18.0 33.33% -0.056

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 356 25.72 41.57% 0.788 0.8601 -0.42
Aid From Lesser Spirits 300 29.31 48.0% 0.664 0.6175 0.371
All Things Weaken 396 24.49 39.65% 0.613 0.9824 0.373
Attenuated Essence 109 22.42 45.87% -0.256 -0.2279 -0.353
Back Against the Wall 262 28.46 51.53% -0.66 -0.7413 0.366
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 105 22.48 30.48% 0.175 0.378 0.182
Burn Brightest Before the End 76 26.42 40.79% -0.366 -0.265 -0.092
Disintegrating Ecosystem 353 23.52 44.48% 0.089 0.4505 -0.473
Downward Spiral 444 24.42 44.82% -0.18 0.0223 0.233
Erosion of Will 317 25.0 39.43% 0.874 1.2 0.346
Intensifying Exploitation 106 18.96 36.79% -0.728 -0.4106 -0.297
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 156 31.49 66.67% -0.182 -0.7011 -0.314
Memory Fades to Dust 408 23.89 46.08% 0.199 0.4753 0.006
Power Corrodes the Spirit 400 25.56 43.0% -1.194 -0.9961 -0.047
Promising Farmlands 353 23.48 41.08% 0.359 0.73 -0.367
Shattered Fragments of Power 83 26.47 49.4% 0.421 0.6123 0.965
Slow Dissolution of Will 112 23.4 37.5% 0.521 0.8966 0.677
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 99 30.06 71.72% -0.026
The Border of Life and Death 27 24.93 70.37% -0.299 -0.9591
Thriving Communities 358 24.33 40.78% -0.461 -0.2395 -0.361
Thriving Crops 38 22.42 44.74% -0.094
Unnatural Proliferation 408 28.71 45.59% 0.754 0.8508 1.401
Untended Land Crumbles 406 23.4 40.64% -0.409 -0.2092 -0.405

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2270 45.78% 24.31 54.01% -0.232 0.6759 -0.543
B 2280 45.93% 24.93 54.21% 0.778 1.6081 0.629
C 2343 44.08% 24.48 55.91% -0.026 0.7255 -0.303
D 2157 45.45% 24.85 55.17% -0.11 0.7609 -0.149
E 2112 45.23% 25.74 55.49% 0.456 1.1592 0.942
F 1870 44.33% 23.74 49.63% -0.189 0.6229 -0.016
G 1725 42.19% 24.21 52.58% 0.46 1.2809 0.389
H 1726 42.46% 24.92 54.63% 0.212 0.9703 -0.237
East 1208 43.83% 23.0 40.98% 0.052 0.9722 -0.55
Northeast 567 42.93% 23.23 43.21% -0.245 0.4783 -0.242
Northwest 544 40.81% 21.29 38.79% -0.28 0.7034 -0.342
Southeast 457 40.04% 22.79 42.23% -0.203 0.6489 -0.285
Southwest 441 45.23% 18.77 34.24% -0.584 0.693 -0.306
West 1202 46.21% 20.77 36.19% 0.192 0.8834 -0.007

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 22.67 33.33% -0.132
Not Using Events or Tokens 79 33.77% 14.38 44.3% -0.126 0.2615 -0.016
Skip Initial Invader Actions 517 16.73% 42.12 75.63% 0.853 0.1293 -0.032
Start of Game Growth 908 22.71% 39.65 71.92% 0.613 0.1256 0.342
Unlimited Undo 1164 29.82% 26.23 55.33% -0.862 -0.7814 -0.342
Using Tokens but Not Events 1090 39.91% 23.25 51.28% 0.87 0.826 -0.593

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4928 12.37 6.49%
II 3302 29.93 62.69%
III 2950 34.92 85.8%
IV 1470 38.86 99.93%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.861 Win Model: -0.061
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8513 44.82% 22.09 48.01%
2 2435 46.81% 25.14 53.96%
3 1090 44.63% 28.07 57.98%
4 454 44.71% 30.08 63.66%
5 35 45.71% 23.83 42.86%
6 123 18.7% 19.17 43.09%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 319
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2499
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2051
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1453
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3037
Lose: Invader deck ran out 141
Lose: Adversary condition 1072
Win: Sacrifice victory 68
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1861
Lose: Spirit destroyed 149

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-25 23:57:52 (Pacific Time)