Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 21 47.62% 29.33 0.666 80.95% 0.143 0.4259
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 14 71.43% 34.36 3.502 78.57% 0.195 0.5898
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 18 77.78% 34.28 3.946 61.11% -0.529 0.332
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 19 84.21% 30.21 0.887 36.84% -1.578 -0.3276
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 10 70.0% 37.9 5.413 40.0% -1.078 0.4562
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 49.67 6.131 66.67% -0.394 1.6746
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 14 64.29% 34.64 3.032 21.43% -2.267 -0.1898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 50 40.0% 26.14 -1.3 74.0% -0.552 -0.5088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 34 48.48% 32.12 2.024 88.24% 0.442 0.4164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 54 61.11% 35.0 3.449 68.52% -0.672 -0.6724
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 69.57% 40.83 6.42 69.57% -0.307 -0.0138
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 19 47.37% 48.16 9.44 84.21% 0.016 0.3864
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 7 71.43% 46.86 9.07 57.14% -0.704 0.1338
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 81.82% 36.36 3.761 27.27% -1.783 -0.5345
The Kingdom of England 0 1 35 37.14% 26.71 -1.194 80.0% -0.38 -0.0497
The Kingdom of England 1 3 18 50.0% 30.72 0.75 66.67% -0.751 -0.2611
The Kingdom of England 2 4 30 66.67% 33.0 1.971 63.33% -0.657 0.3076
The Kingdom of England 3 6 21 61.9% 38.0 3.701 57.14% -1.31 0.2697
The Kingdom of England 4 7 29 75.86% 42.1 6.865 58.62% -0.816 0.6983
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 40.0% 35.2 3.502 20.0% -1.518 0.553
The Kingdom of England 6 11 40 72.5% 44.67 8.097 37.5% -1.8 0.4576
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 26 64.0% 22.54 -2.683 42.31% -1.611 -1.0861
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 31.33 1.455 77.78% -0.14 0.7487
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 29 34.48% 32.48 1.48 37.93% -2.411 -0.2829
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 85.71% 31.64 2.206 28.57% -1.623 0.5616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 50.0% 38.44 4.202 33.33% -2.291 -0.1405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 66.67% 48.17 10.399 50.0% -0.652 1.1745
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 26 50.0% 49.12 9.307 42.31% -1.936 0.1918
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 18 61.11% 21.11 -3.111 66.67% -0.306 -0.2181
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 20 75.0% 29.3 1.036 80.0% 0.134 0.1449
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 71.43% 29.64 0.912 78.57% -0.186 0.0337
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 28 53.57% 47.68 8.754 96.43% 0.971 1.2538
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 87.5% 36.38 4.745 62.5% -0.265 0.5052
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6 83.33% 32.17 2.062 33.33% -0.955 0.2123
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 30 70.0% 42.27 7.176 56.67% -0.905 0.2267
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 25 36.0% 26.2 -1.857 88.0% -0.016 -0.139
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 40.0% 33.8 2.939 70.0% -0.468 0.2477
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 50.0% 41.14 4.872 85.71% 0.02 0.4576
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 16 68.75% 42.5 6.251 68.75% -0.545 0.7141
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 100.0% 45.33 9.425 66.67% -0.075 1.0653
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 100.0% 25.0 -1.062 0.0% -2.076 -0.0156
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 81.82% 43.73 7.127 27.27% -1.813 0.1229

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 829 49.15 29.37 -0.343 74.91% 0.087 0.4453
1 Thematic 98 63.27 29.41 0.222 62.24% -0.391 0.1125
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 135 56.3 30.78 0.145 73.33% -0.034 0.1621
2 Coastline 31 54.84 23.74 -2.654 67.74% -0.166 -0.0234
2 Fragment 11 63.64 27.55 -0.216 90.91% 0.553 0.9749
2 Heart 3 0.0 36.0 2.996 100.0% 0.272 0.5645
2 Opposite Shores 36 33.33 27.42 -1.741 63.89% -0.587 -0.362
2 Thematic 34 60.61 35.26 1.781 61.76% -0.447 -0.4022
2 Top to Top 4 50.0 35.75 2.852 100.0% 0.4 0.5345
3 Coastline 1 0.0 28.0 -0.115 100.0% 0.058 0.0249
3 Other 5 0.0 35.0 3.397 80.0% -0.054 0.3611
3 Round (Default) 100 55.0 33.64 0.781 71.0% -0.019 0.0203
3 Thematic 10 70.0 32.0 0.446 70.0% -0.057 -0.4139
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 5.775 100.0% 0.043 0.0703
4 Other 6 66.67 31.33 0.507 66.67% 0.1 0.2131
4 Thematic 41 46.34 31.0 -0.349 78.05% 0.375 -0.7114
4 Trapezoid (Default) 58 44.83 36.45 0.735 74.14% -0.327 -0.3436
5 Other 2 50.0 60.5 6.802 100.0% 0.214 -0.0046

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 49 26.96 -2.333 53.06% -1.716 0.3538
Aid From Lesser Spirits 35 32.09 -0.073 57.14% -1.163 0.755
All Things Weaken 52 25.0 -3.11 46.15% -1.944 0.2108
Back Against the Wall 34 29.35 -1.428 61.76% -1.369 0.7271
Disintegrating Ecosystem 61 23.97 -3.393 60.66% -1.311 0.9127
Downward Spiral 58 24.67 -3.195 53.45% -1.723 0.2943
Erosion of Will 60 24.7 -3.497 56.67% -1.671 0.5386
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18 33.5 0.589 77.78% -0.554 0.1502
Memory Fades to Dust 46 23.83 -3.188 56.52% -1.433 0.7818
Power Corrodes the Spirit 68 27.18 -2.008 58.82% -1.373 0.6471
Promising Farmlands 55 26.67 -3.03 56.36% -1.501 0.7115
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 38.2 2.108 100.0% 0.675 1.1108
Thriving Communities 58 28.1 -1.909 56.9% -1.406 0.6914
Unnatural Proliferation 53 28.06 -1.675 47.17% -1.662 0.416
Untended Land Crumbles 58 26.69 -2.638 50.0% -1.708 0.3909

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 233 51.72% 29.04 -0.933 69.53% -0.302 -1.3918
B 277 48.55% 30.52 -0.235 69.31% -0.108 -1.2936
C 291 52.23% 31.26 0.304 73.54% 0.226 -1.1893
D 271 54.44% 29.87 -0.295 72.69% 0.267 -0.9105
E 235 48.94% 30.65 0.174 77.87% 0.284 -0.9929
F 189 48.94% 33.24 0.69 73.02% 0.084 -1.1593
G 182 47.25% 31.74 0.317 78.57% 0.399 -0.8318
H 179 44.13% 34.86 1.518 79.33% 0.404 -0.8364
East 86 49.41% 31.97 1.074 70.93% 0.147 -0.8033
Northeast 69 58.82% 31.99 0.479 75.36% 0.022 -0.8679
Northwest 55 61.82% 31.64 0.434 70.91% 0.065 -0.8998
Southeast 37 45.95% 33.19 1.491 75.68% 0.432 -0.5692
Southwest 39 56.41% 29.95 -1.321 66.67% -0.177 -0.7851
West 74 59.46% 30.16 -0.694 62.16% -0.446 -1.1322

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 20.67 -6.038 33.33% -1.019 1.0246
Not Using Events or Tokens 11 45.45% 24.36 -2.622 72.73% -0.195 0.0244
Skip Initial Invader Actions 41 17.5% 50.02 5.415 85.37% -0.189 -0.893
Start of Game Growth 88 22.99% 46.74 5.693 88.64% 0.968 0.5133
Unlimited Undo 116 51.75% 34.82 1.455 72.41% 0.112 -0.3005
Using Tokens but Not Events 118 38.26% 26.87 -1.487 77.97% -0.021 -0.0686

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 247 22.34 24.29%
II 496 30.75 72.78%
III 437 34.26 87.41%
IV 225 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.197 Win Model: 0.071
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 931 50.54% 29.39 73.68%
2 252 52.99% 30.2 71.03%
3 117 55.17% 33.03 70.94%
4 105 45.71% 34.78 76.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 60
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 374
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 357
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 221
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 112
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 225
Lose: Spirit destroyed 28

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)