Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 172 45.35% 24.72 -0.574 59.3% -0.466 -0.1191
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 129 55.81% 24.36 -5.037 45.74% -1.525 -1.2475
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 94 68.09% 28.46 -5.433 44.68% -1.473 -0.6613
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 127 66.14% 30.18 -6.313 33.07% -1.117 -0.1182
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 46 67.39% 29.7 -3.312 21.74% -0.559 0.8232
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 30 50.0% 26.43 -6.247 20.0% -0.567 0.7303
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 118 65.22% 35.99 6.371 19.49% -1.053 0.878
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 247 37.25% 25.55 -2.334 71.66% -0.427 -0.2114
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 240 45.61% 27.35 -1.986 70.42% -1.171 -1.2406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 213 49.77% 32.21 -2.12 64.32% -0.924 -1.0074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 146 70.55% 37.53 8.168 58.22% 0.597 0.8126
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 64 56.25% 40.95 -0.146 62.5% -0.395 -0.1707
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 47 72.34% 26.6 -0.527 17.02% -0.48 0.1919
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 66 77.27% 35.23 11.199 21.21% -0.371 0.9856
The Kingdom of England 0 1 171 40.94% 23.89 -2.299 64.91% -0.306 -0.0961
The Kingdom of England 1 3 129 53.49% 25.6 -0.942 54.26% -0.665 -0.3778
The Kingdom of England 2 4 165 57.58% 25.3 0.924 43.03% -0.828 -0.0946
The Kingdom of England 3 6 119 70.59% 32.06 -1.1 37.82% -1.564 -0.3453
The Kingdom of England 4 7 88 70.45% 37.65 -4.757 47.73% -1.004 0.2761
The Kingdom of England 5 9 45 77.78% 27.93 -2.39 13.33% -1.53 -0.0394
The Kingdom of England 6 11 182 72.0% 36.76 9.693 18.13% -0.818 1.1767
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 168 51.5% 21.7 -2.286 47.02% -0.59 -0.1763
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 106 57.55% 21.67 -5.096 40.57% -0.701 0.1062
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 134 50.0% 29.43 2.555 36.57% -0.261 0.8424
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 69 60.87% 32.7 1.296 30.43% -0.527 0.8701
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 63 50.79% 32.11 -0.493 19.05% -0.466 1.0478
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 40 57.5% 34.88 -3.113 22.5% -1.141 -0.357
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 272 66.91% 40.87 10.594 18.75% -0.605 0.8718
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 69 15.94% 23.06 -0.618 62.32% 0.024 0.2353
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 53 37.74% 23.49 3.346 47.17% -0.201 0.1839
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 52 46.15% 20.1 -2.85 36.54% -0.831 -0.4527
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 33 42.42% 34.58 8.186 57.58% -0.097 0.1754
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 20 50.0% 33.85 7.357 50.0% 0.319 1.1801
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 24 62.5% 33.71 -6.367 29.17% -1.215 -0.5199
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 108 70.37% 32.82 3.646 5.56% -0.468 0.6732
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 157 45.22% 23.44 2.343 64.97% 0.604 0.7995
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 139 56.12% 25.52 0.862 63.31% 0.286 0.3814
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 133 60.15% 26.41 -0.365 58.65% 0.057 0.166
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 165 69.7% 30.14 -2.721 44.24% -0.575 -0.1075
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 74 81.08% 27.09 1.953 35.14% -0.002 0.6176
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 31 64.52% 28.35 5.595 32.26% -0.516 0.4708
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 135 75.56% 33.29 0.5 36.3% -0.836 0.1614
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 159 39.62% 26.19 2.558 74.21% 0.839 0.9297
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 117 60.68% 23.29 -3.159 43.59% -0.618 0.0417
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 127 49.61% 28.54 -1.923 55.12% -0.677 -0.2832
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 80 72.5% 32.76 -5.873 47.5% -1.119 -0.0877
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 38 52.63% 41.74 -0.004 63.16% -0.947 0.0117
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 35 82.86% 21.66 -3.809 5.71% -1.684 0.0337
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 115 83.48% 34.5 0.454 13.04% -0.489 1.4929

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3998 50.46 26.89 61.91% 0.301 0.5014 -0.204
1 Thematic 630 56.35 25.49 43.81% -0.088 0.6315 -0.313
2 Archipelago 9 100.0 33.33 55.56% -0.707 -0.4526
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 750 50.53 27.17 59.6% 0.226 0.2337 -0.077
2 Coastline 141 50.0 24.67 74.47% 0.908 0.7025 -0.267
2 Fragment 33 69.7 29.27 72.73% -0.436 -0.7129 -0.41
2 Heart 20 60.0 26.1 50.0% 0.772
2 Opposite Shores 202 60.89 29.71 59.9% 1.368 1.4249 0.193
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 202 58.21 25.71 38.12% -0.232 0.2194 -0.103
2 Top to Top 32 53.13 30.56 75.0% -0.189 -0.287 -0.357
3 Archipelago 4 100.0 45.5 75.0% 0.238
3 Coastline 4 50.0 30.0 100.0%
3 Other 27 34.62 29.59 77.78% 0.242 0.2129 0.578
3 Round (Default) 523 48.37 29.08 60.99% -0.547 -0.7728 0.221
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 17.5 50.0%
3 Thematic 77 63.64 31.18 37.66% 0.066 0.2622 -0.489
4 Archipelago 9 11.11 29.44 88.89%
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 2 0.0 37.0 100.0%
4 Other 11 45.45 28.36 81.82% 0.708
4 Thematic 127 39.37 32.41 70.87% -0.212 -0.4104 -0.301
4 Trapezoid (Default) 197 52.28 31.81 60.41% 0.038 -0.2058 0.038
5 Archipelago 3 66.67 19.67 66.67%
5 Other 23 60.87 30.78 43.48% -0.465 -1.522 -0.507
5 Thematic 4 0.0 39.5 100.0%
6 Archipelago 10 20.0 34.9 100.0% 0.151 -0.5857
6 Other 3 0.0 33.67 66.67% -0.198
6 Star 4 25.0 42.75 50.0% -0.109
6 Thematic 29 24.14 20.21 44.83% -0.135 0.6187 -0.0
6 Two Centers (Default) 12 16.67 20.08 50.0% -0.31 -0.8897 -0.072
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 23.0 100.0%
7 Other 2 0.0 27.0 50.0% -0.057

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 248 27.17 43.95% 0.051 0.2103 0.274
Aid From Lesser Spirits 196 30.62 51.02% 0.063 -0.0236 0.673
All Things Weaken 244 25.39 41.39% -0.131 0.2108 0.005
Attenuated Essence 27 20.52 33.33% -0.208 -0.1341 -0.461
Back Against the Wall 189 28.96 52.38% 0.334 0.4087 0.473
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 22.1 23.81% 0.991 1.1818 -0.327
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 25.83 38.89% 0.325 0.4487 -0.253
Disintegrating Ecosystem 242 24.39 47.11% 0.244 0.6171 0.055
Downward Spiral 281 24.66 46.26% 0.419 0.5558 0.841
Erosion of Will 225 25.12 41.33% 0.171 0.466 0.143
Intensifying Exploitation 31 15.19 25.81% 0.637 0.8752 -0.305
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 105 34.95 73.33% 0.518 -0.0141 0.89
Memory Fades to Dust 282 26.18 48.94% 1.012 1.2928 -0.289
Power Corrodes the Spirit 296 26.9 45.95% 0.314 0.4667 0.465
Promising Farmlands 229 26.22 45.85% -0.128 0.2183 -0.106
Shattered Fragments of Power 24 24.75 58.33% 0.267 0.4624 -0.254
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 28.65 46.15% 0.047 0.4979 0.283
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 76 31.63 75.0% 0.239 -0.5016 0.621
The Border of Life and Death 9 24.89 66.67% 0.754 0.3212 -0.099
Thriving Communities 251 26.17 43.03% 0.389 0.6871 -0.017
Thriving Crops 12 23.83 58.33% 0.562 0.4599
Unnatural Proliferation 294 28.98 44.9% 0.838 0.9828 0.896
Untended Land Crumbles 295 25.19 44.07% -0.13 0.1694 0.417

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1337 51.69% 27.78 60.88% -0.093 0.9007 0.106
B 1291 49.49% 27.9 62.12% -0.208 0.7105 0.119
C 1348 49.59% 27.33 63.5% -0.324 0.4188 0.364
D 1185 51.44% 27.76 64.3% -0.313 0.639 0.167
E 1198 51.42% 28.53 61.77% 0.309 1.09 -0.172
F 1013 53.12% 27.96 57.55% -0.347 0.546 -0.216
G 960 47.71% 28.04 61.35% -0.35 0.5058 -0.168
H 932 46.24% 28.57 63.73% -0.083 0.7651 0.186
East 714 51.75% 28.16 48.74% -0.794 -0.0245 -0.473
Northeast 347 50.29% 27.46 50.14% -0.312 0.475 -0.446
Northwest 300 49.33% 26.77 48.33% -0.621 0.3622 -0.65
Southeast 263 47.15% 28.38 52.09% -0.08 0.7949 -0.362
Southwest 256 55.08% 25.02 45.7% -0.206 1.0012 -0.502
West 669 54.86% 26.6 46.49% -0.004 0.9304 -0.757

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 18 0.0% 16.06 33.33% -0.591 0.0382
Not Using Events or Tokens 39 43.24% 22.72 69.23% -0.092 0.4139
Skip Initial Invader Actions 238 20.54% 42.22 80.25% 1.864 1.2286 1.444
Start of Game Growth 409 25.19% 42.4 81.17% 0.888 0.4985 0.694
Unlimited Undo 610 36.26% 27.11 61.15% -0.956 -0.9114 0.004
Using Tokens but Not Events 654 43.26% 26.85 60.4% -0.024 -0.0512 -2.125

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2061 17.67 10.0%
II 2114 30.7 64.9%
III 1915 34.75 85.69%
IV 1003 38.22 99.9%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.168 Win Model: 0.341
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4714 51.31% 26.52 58.89%
2 1348 54.01% 27.92 59.87%
3 611 50.0% 29.41 59.74%
4 340 45.59% 32.17 67.06%
5 19 52.63% 28.53 52.63%
6 61 21.31% 25.0 57.38%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 205
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1617
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1356
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 989
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 700
Lose: Invader deck ran out 93
Lose: Adversary condition 732
Win: Sacrifice victory 54
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1245
Lose: Spirit destroyed 102

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)