Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 60 51.67% 27.47 -0.327 68.33% -0.825 -0.5363
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 47 61.7% 30.09 1.064 65.96% -0.686 -0.2716
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 40 70.0% 35.83 4.329 62.5% -0.687 0.1957
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 75.41% 34.33 2.978 45.9% -1.549 -0.3073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 28 75.0% 34.54 2.952 28.57% -1.923 -0.4267
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 40.33 4.742 44.44% -1.226 0.7134
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 59 84.75% 34.37 3.613 22.03% -2.358 -0.3149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 108 32.41% 28.48 -0.282 86.11% 0.1 0.1414
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 79 55.13% 30.24 1.07 82.28% 0.165 0.1466
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 95 63.16% 35.35 3.762 69.47% -0.595 -0.5812
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 51 70.59% 42.08 6.822 72.55% -0.407 -0.1239
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 29 51.72% 46.17 8.722 75.86% -0.253 0.1058
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 80.0% 39.9 6.09 40.0% -1.252 -0.4274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 27 77.78% 34.44 2.291 22.22% -2.487 -1.2479
The Kingdom of England 0 1 74 43.24% 26.62 -1.034 81.08% -0.277 0.0527
The Kingdom of England 1 3 45 57.78% 31.18 1.1 73.33% -0.56 -0.0431
The Kingdom of England 2 4 55 65.45% 32.76 1.616 61.82% -0.916 0.0571
The Kingdom of England 3 6 60 66.67% 35.07 2.72 46.67% -1.811 -0.2316
The Kingdom of England 4 7 48 75.0% 41.73 6.533 58.33% -1.02 0.475
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 66.67% 30.44 1.227 11.11% -2.162 -0.0913
The Kingdom of England 6 11 66 65.15% 43.53 7.236 34.85% -2.181 0.0626
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 61 60.0% 25.31 -1.511 57.38% -1.111 -0.5992
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 36 66.67% 27.25 -0.017 52.78% -1.118 -0.2153
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 64 45.31% 33.2 1.629 43.75% -2.374 -0.2326
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 33 72.73% 36.42 4.098 39.39% -1.761 0.4375
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 46 47.83% 32.07 1.281 17.39% -3.169 -1.0079
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 66.67% 50.89 11.638 55.56% -0.647 1.1702
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 89 64.04% 41.78 6.521 26.97% -2.722 -0.6307
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 42 52.38% 24.64 -1.625 76.19% -0.067 0.0212
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 50 70.0% 28.7 0.628 74.0% -0.165 -0.13
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 46 67.39% 28.0 -0.092 67.39% -0.432 -0.1949
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 69 66.67% 36.03 3.737 63.77% -0.851 -0.5607
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 26 92.31% 27.96 0.575 34.62% -1.363 -0.5824
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 13 84.62% 30.92 1.503 30.77% -1.311 -0.1431
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 46 71.74% 41.91 6.637 54.35% -1.09 0.0328
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 59 37.29% 28.9 -0.201 91.53% 0.639 0.5503
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 32 68.75% 27.56 -0.081 50.0% -1.226 -0.4473
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 44 47.73% 37.8 4.094 75.0% -0.468 -0.0558
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 38 81.58% 37.97 4.697 57.89% -1.067 0.177
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 68.75% 48.81 9.182 75.0% -0.117 0.9911
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 100.0% 28.77 0.965 7.69% -1.963 0.0207
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 82 93.9% 35.96 3.72 9.76% -2.893 -1.0213

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1712 50.88 29.46 -0.128 73.36% 0.274 0.3599
1 Thematic 255 67.84 29.68 0.06 51.76% -0.333 -0.0557
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 3.081 50.0% 0.16 0.1668
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 327 57.8 30.2 0.002 65.14% -0.227 -0.2012
2 Coastline 75 57.33 23.64 -2.556 76.0% 0.058 0.0337
2 Fragment 24 70.83 31.33 1.038 79.17% 0.56 0.7824
2 Heart 6 16.67 27.33 -0.905 83.33% -0.101 -0.0008
2 Opposite Shores 115 60.0 27.55 -1.349 51.3% -0.476 -0.4105
2 Thematic 87 68.6 32.45 0.879 44.83% -0.23 -0.2966
2 Top to Top 9 44.44 35.67 2.758 100.0% 1.069 1.0004
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 -9.297 0.0% -0.804 0.0006
3 Coastline 4 50.0 30.0 1.157 100.0% 0.747 0.5964
3 Other 16 13.33 33.13 1.897 81.25% -0.083 0.0899
3 Round (Default) 183 55.74 32.61 0.738 65.03% -0.244 -0.2825
3 Thematic 39 76.92 32.56 0.68 41.03% -0.386 -0.7522
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 37.0 3.437 100.0% 0.024 0.5723
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 -4.142 100.0% 0.019 0.1389
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 6.682 100.0% 0.036 0.1076
4 Other 8 50.0 28.5 -0.931 75.0% -0.03 -0.0989
4 Thematic 82 40.24 32.3 -0.071 68.29% 0.192 -0.8051
4 Trapezoid (Default) 118 52.54 35.52 0.956 67.8% -0.547 -0.5392
5 Other 2 50.0 60.5 8.202 100.0% 0.29 -0.1704
5 Thematic 2 0.0 41.0 -0.928 100.0% 0.061 -2.3306

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 116 26.59 -2.546 43.1% -2.037 0.0322
Aid From Lesser Spirits 97 30.11 -0.845 51.55% -1.441 0.4718
All Things Weaken 128 24.64 -3.507 38.28% -2.196 -0.037
Back Against the Wall 91 29.42 -0.875 53.85% -1.437 0.6497
Disintegrating Ecosystem 122 23.15 -3.892 51.64% -1.734 0.4884
Downward Spiral 131 24.53 -3.259 48.85% -1.904 0.1179
Erosion of Will 122 25.43 -3.131 46.72% -1.911 0.2969
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 33.14 0.641 69.05% -0.576 0.1031
Memory Fades to Dust 117 26.16 -2.21 56.41% -1.476 0.7388
Power Corrodes the Spirit 148 28.07 -1.596 57.43% -1.51 0.5107
Promising Farmlands 114 26.96 -2.631 48.25% -1.654 0.5539
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 36.25 1.798 89.29% 0.37 0.7815
Thriving Communities 126 26.57 -2.571 45.24% -1.837 0.2507
Unnatural Proliferation 138 29.49 -0.973 48.55% -1.682 0.3986
Untended Land Crumbles 144 25.69 -2.973 46.53% -1.86 0.2423

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 560 51.7% 29.68 -0.442 67.86% -0.173 -0.8611
B 565 52.84% 30.34 -0.051 66.73% -0.046 -0.8298
C 603 54.89% 30.23 -0.012 67.99% 0.134 -0.8784
D 523 53.74% 29.62 -0.288 71.7% 0.188 -0.5895
E 509 52.46% 30.94 0.304 69.55% 0.098 -0.7961
F 424 56.5% 31.98 0.658 68.16% 0.141 -0.7001
G 404 52.23% 30.85 0.196 72.28% 0.111 -0.7209
H 378 51.59% 31.76 0.657 73.81% 0.22 -0.619
East 218 57.6% 32.46 0.8 54.13% -0.33 -0.9063
Northeast 142 59.57% 32.46 0.776 62.68% 0.126 -0.3984
Northwest 117 59.83% 32.36 0.816 62.39% 0.044 -0.5514
Southeast 124 53.23% 32.68 0.826 54.03% 0.051 -0.5781
Southwest 117 64.96% 28.28 -2.009 46.15% -0.323 -0.5221
West 166 55.42% 31.31 -0.142 54.82% -0.446 -0.7729

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 23.75 -4.329 50.0% -1.196 0.8573
Not Using Events or Tokens 19 42.11% 23.79 -2.515 73.68% -0.45 -0.2356
Skip Initial Invader Actions 92 23.08% 45.92 3.744 77.17% -0.76 -1.4466
Start of Game Growth 186 27.17% 46.1 6.193 83.87% 1.457 0.988
Unlimited Undo 207 49.51% 33.68 1.133 71.5% 0.126 -0.2968
Using Tokens but Not Events 251 38.06% 27.01 -1.233 82.47% 0.186 0.1351

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 633 22.37 16.27%
II 1030 30.88 67.86%
III 924 34.39 87.23%
IV 483 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.176 Win Model: 0.269
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1986 53.02% 29.48 70.59%
2 641 59.53% 29.58 62.4%
3 235 58.12% 32.11 60.85%
4 208 45.67% 34.52 70.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 102
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 791
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 692
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 478
Lose: Invader deck ran out 29
Lose: Adversary condition 319
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Lose: Blight pool ran out 584
Lose: Spirit destroyed 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)