Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 57 49.12% 27.75 -0.292 68.42% -0.851 -0.5678
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 43 60.47% 29.81 0.804 65.12% -0.752 -0.3411
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 38 71.05% 36.05 4.368 63.16% -0.68 0.1965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 57 75.44% 34.82 3.167 47.37% -1.475 -0.2294
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 18 72.22% 38.78 5.367 44.44% -1.377 0.125
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 40.33 4.7 44.44% -1.181 0.7728
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 59 84.75% 34.37 3.57 22.03% -2.322 -0.2792
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 106 33.02% 28.42 -0.377 85.85% 0.061 0.1031
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 78 55.84% 30.15 0.943 82.05% 0.138 0.1196
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 92 63.04% 35.21 3.599 69.57% -0.651 -0.6378
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 47 70.21% 42.94 7.183 74.47% -0.304 -0.0156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 29 51.72% 46.17 8.637 75.86% -0.277 0.0904
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 80.0% 39.9 5.951 40.0% -1.309 -0.4825
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 25 76.0% 35.28 2.673 24.0% -2.361 -1.1234
The Kingdom of England 0 1 72 43.06% 26.43 -1.257 80.56% -0.349 -0.0177
The Kingdom of England 1 3 44 56.82% 31.14 1.024 72.73% -0.617 -0.1028
The Kingdom of England 2 4 53 64.15% 32.77 1.459 60.38% -1.026 -0.0587
The Kingdom of England 3 6 57 66.67% 34.95 2.554 47.37% -1.836 -0.2575
The Kingdom of England 4 7 44 72.73% 42.95 6.986 61.36% -0.901 0.5972
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 66.67% 30.44 1.17 11.11% -2.171 -0.0976
The Kingdom of England 6 11 65 64.62% 43.8 7.256 35.38% -2.157 0.0907
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 61.02% 25.2 -1.653 56.67% -1.171 -0.6568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 34 64.71% 27.97 0.134 55.88% -1.022 -0.1227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 61 44.26% 33.38 1.745 44.26% -2.316 -0.1732
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 31 77.42% 37.03 4.384 41.94% -1.572 0.6245
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 45 48.89% 32.2 1.269 17.78% -3.141 -0.9826
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 62.5% 53.75 13.006 62.5% -0.37 1.4475
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 87 64.37% 41.53 6.368 26.44% -2.747 -0.6498
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 39 51.28% 24.79 -1.637 76.92% -0.044 0.041
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 45 71.11% 29.16 0.756 75.56% -0.099 -0.0655
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 45 66.67% 28.4 0.04 68.89% -0.379 -0.1444
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 49 55.1% 45.02 7.536 89.8% 0.535 0.8217
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 20 95.0% 29.35 1.154 40.0% -1.129 -0.3461
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 13 84.62% 30.92 1.436 30.77% -1.297 -0.1301
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 46 71.74% 41.91 6.555 54.35% -1.105 0.0188
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 58 37.93% 28.78 -0.346 91.38% 0.588 0.486
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 29 65.52% 28.59 0.387 55.17% -1.063 -0.2836
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 42 50.0% 37.48 3.842 73.81% -0.511 -0.0918
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 36 80.56% 37.64 4.5 55.56% -1.168 0.0856
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 68.75% 48.81 9.146 75.0% -0.131 0.9862
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 100.0% 28.77 0.861 7.69% -1.992 0.007
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 80 93.75% 36.13 3.664 10.0% -2.906 -1.0277

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1630 50.86 29.72 -0.14 73.87% 0.205 0.3774
1 Thematic 233 66.52 30.11 0.139 53.65% -0.402 -0.0404
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 32.5 2.658 50.0% 0.152 0.3785
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 309 55.99 30.6 0.104 66.99% -0.211 -0.1597
2 Coastline 74 58.11 23.65 -2.634 75.68% 0.012 0.019
2 Fragment 23 69.57 31.65 1.072 78.26% 0.473 0.7288
2 Heart 6 16.67 27.33 -0.95 83.33% -0.14 0.0019
2 Opposite Shores 113 59.29 27.49 -1.462 51.33% -0.527 -0.4365
2 Thematic 77 67.11 33.13 1.168 50.65% -0.077 -0.1182
2 Top to Top 9 44.44 35.67 2.527 100.0% 1.012 0.9816
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 -9.177 0.0% -0.784 0.2977
3 Coastline 4 50.0 30.0 1.114 100.0% 0.716 0.5174
3 Other 15 7.14 34.0 2.604 86.67% 0.19 0.3648
3 Round (Default) 179 55.31 32.26 0.497 64.8% -0.342 -0.4154
3 Thematic 39 76.92 32.56 0.559 41.03% -0.415 -0.8165
4 Coastline 1 0.0 19.0 -4.033 100.0% 0.023 0.0733
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 6.737 100.0% 0.038 0.0094
4 Other 8 50.0 28.5 -1.015 75.0% -0.031 -0.1446
4 Thematic 82 40.24 32.3 -0.139 68.29% 0.198 -0.8859
4 Trapezoid (Default) 114 50.88 35.77 1.091 69.3% -0.419 -0.5058
5 Other 2 50.0 60.5 8.192 100.0% 0.292 -0.311
5 Thematic 2 0.0 41.0 -0.825 100.0% 0.066 -2.6959

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 107 27.22 -2.311 45.79% -1.946 0.1274
Aid From Lesser Spirits 90 30.92 -0.499 53.33% -1.368 0.5504
All Things Weaken 125 24.82 -3.486 39.2% -2.196 -0.026
Back Against the Wall 88 29.47 -1.016 53.41% -1.521 0.5705
Disintegrating Ecosystem 113 23.19 -3.96 52.21% -1.718 0.5067
Downward Spiral 128 24.71 -3.261 50.0% -1.892 0.1308
Erosion of Will 113 25.61 -3.075 48.67% -1.852 0.3571
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 40 32.95 0.484 67.5% -0.638 0.0488
Memory Fades to Dust 109 26.39 -2.172 56.88% -1.45 0.769
Power Corrodes the Spirit 137 28.5 -1.522 59.12% -1.46 0.5636
Promising Farmlands 111 27.26 -2.597 49.55% -1.621 0.5926
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 36.25 1.638 89.29% 0.338 0.7477
Thriving Communities 118 27.25 -2.273 47.46% -1.762 0.3326
Unnatural Proliferation 131 29.56 -1.065 48.85% -1.687 0.4
Untended Land Crumbles 131 25.87 -2.914 47.33% -1.819 0.2866

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 531 51.32% 29.8 -0.473 68.74% -0.117 -0.8778
B 548 52.29% 30.51 -0.065 67.15% -0.031 -0.8878
C 578 54.15% 30.47 0.001 68.69% 0.182 -0.9072
D 496 53.64% 29.78 -0.285 72.98% 0.275 -0.5748
E 486 51.23% 31.04 0.264 70.37% 0.123 -0.8426
F 412 56.2% 32.1 0.581 68.2% 0.143 -0.7706
G 387 51.42% 30.97 0.181 72.61% 0.154 -0.7517
H 367 50.95% 31.99 0.693 74.39% 0.263 -0.6512
East 207 56.31% 32.7 0.882 56.52% -0.232 -0.8809
Northeast 136 58.52% 32.91 0.746 64.71% 0.098 -0.5011
Northwest 112 58.04% 32.8 0.858 64.29% 0.076 -0.5942
Southeast 120 52.5% 32.82 0.846 55.0% 0.101 -0.6054
Southwest 112 65.18% 28.6 -2.061 46.43% -0.416 -0.6888
West 155 53.55% 31.45 -0.117 58.06% -0.3 -0.6983

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 23.75 -4.468 50.0% -1.219 0.8374
Not Using Events or Tokens 19 42.11% 23.79 -2.581 73.68% -0.474 -0.2581
Skip Initial Invader Actions 91 22.22% 46.05 3.751 76.92% -0.736 -1.4226
Start of Game Growth 183 26.52% 46.23 6.018 84.15% 1.388 0.9175
Unlimited Undo 197 48.45% 34.13 1.246 71.57% 0.118 -0.3015
Using Tokens but Not Events 232 37.28% 27.14 -1.299 81.9% 0.099 0.0472

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 586 22.35 16.21%
II 981 30.84 69.01%
III 896 34.35 87.61%
IV 461 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.157 Win Model: 0.172
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1879 52.74% 29.75 71.42%
2 611 58.2% 29.82 64.16%
3 231 57.83% 31.83 60.61%
4 203 44.83% 34.63 70.94%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 95
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 770
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 671
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 456
Lose: Invader deck ran out 29
Lose: Adversary condition 304
Win: Sacrifice victory 26
Lose: Blight pool ran out 529
Lose: Spirit destroyed 44

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)