Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 46 28.26% 29.61 76.09% -0.179 0.317 -0.081
Blitz 0 89 26.58% 43.65 73.03% 0.626 1.0691 -0.292
Dahan Insurrection 4 113 17.7% 55.85 78.76% 0.16 0.2574 0.531
Despicable Theft 2 19 42.11% 39.53 94.74% 0.073 0.5718 0.703
Elemental Invocation 1 27 22.22% 29.81 85.19% -0.09 0.4554 -1.071
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 500 11.0% 46.62 72.8% -0.561 -0.3295 -0.09
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 41.67% 27.5 58.33% 0.343 0.751 -0.512
Rituals of Terror 3 27 25.93% 50.0 88.89% 1.541 1.3045 0.23
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.89 55.56% 0.307 0.5336 0.167
Second Wave 0 249 24.15% 30.51 83.53% -0.162 0.5307 -0.082
The Great River 3 23 52.17% 32.74 34.78% -1.082 0.4994 -1.513
Varied Terrains 2 93 48.39% 31.55 66.67% -0.702 0.0843 0.263
Ward the Shores 2 31 43.33% 35.35 67.74% -0.336 0.5446 -0.127

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7622 36.86% 32.42 70.11% -0.062 0.601 -0.012
1 Thematic 158 35.44% 35.89 68.99% -0.106 0.951 0.254
2 Archipelago 17 41.18% 32.94 70.59% 0.08 0.5505 -0.9
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2007 41.95% 34.97 75.83% 0.099 0.617 0.244
2 Coastline 343 30.61% 35.81 80.76% 0.619 0.8195 0.831
2 Fragment 63 49.21% 37.3 73.02% 0.229 0.5271 1.414
2 Heart 39 56.41% 31.59 56.41% 0.057 0.5181 -0.194
2 Opposite Shores 525 33.78% 33.65 79.05% 0.054 0.5932 -0.484
2 Thematic 136 29.63% 34.86 74.26% -0.264 0.5182 -0.177
2 Top to Top 126 34.92% 37.79 72.22% 0.421 0.5487 0.556
3 Archipelago 10 50.0% 38.3 50.0% 0.329 0.1107 -0.185
3 Coastline 19 42.11% 27.21 73.68% 0.34 -0.1676 0.766
3 Other 43 32.56% 28.7 72.09% 0.559 -0.105 0.601
3 Round (Default) 1405 35.18% 36.31 80.93% -0.202 0.102 0.268
3 Sunrise 5 20.0% 29.4 60.0% 0.137 0.5974 0.0
3 Thematic 45 31.11% 39.67 77.78% -0.145 0.0627 0.535
4 Archipelago 14 28.57% 55.86 71.43% 0.069 0.032 -0.042
4 Coastline 5 0.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0373 0.215
4 Leaf 4 50.0% 24.75 100.0% 0.061 -0.0411 0.0
4 Other 27 25.93% 28.56 92.59% 0.767 0.0527 0.251
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.461
4 Thematic 56 26.79% 40.05 53.57% -0.938 -0.8347 -1.237
4 Trapezoid (Default) 686 39.64% 44.3 78.43% -0.347 -0.2695 -0.619
5 Archipelago 2 50.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.115 0.0171 0.031
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.026 -0.5619 -0.611
5 Other 85 25.0% 35.62 88.24% 0.848 0.3319 -0.517
5 Thematic 11 81.82% 57.82 63.64% 0.17 -0.1175 -0.449
6 Archipelago 6 20.0% 54.0 100.0% 0.071 -0.0757 0.224
6 Coastline 6 0.0% 42.83 100.0% 0.038 -0.596 0.252
6 Other 69 29.41% 39.59 69.57% -1.038 -0.9929 -1.614
6 Star 54 29.63% 38.22 68.52% -1.048 -0.2777 -1.156
6 Thematic 133 25.56% 53.03 72.93% -0.817 -0.5758 -1.14
6 Two Centers (Default) 139 27.94% 52.82 90.65% -0.436 -0.2445 0.081
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 100.5 100.0% 0.036 0.1853 0.099
7 Other 6 16.67% 31.67 100.0% -0.233 -0.7173 -0.075

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 365 35.15 51.23% -1.483 0.4877 -0.391
Aid From Lesser Spirits 352 36.04 57.1% -1.075 0.703 -0.476
All Things Weaken 371 35.5 53.1% -1.016 1.0326 -0.342
Back Against the Wall 361 36.26 58.17% -1.482 0.457 -0.482
Disintegrating Ecosystem 347 31.12 49.57% -1.602 0.5261 -0.597
Downward Spiral 435 33.12 51.49% -1.444 0.5175 -0.469
Erosion of Will 378 34.11 46.3% -1.304 0.7776 -0.844
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 145 38.72 72.41% 0.783 1.2851 -0.223
Memory Fades to Dust 379 31.49 54.09% -1.432 0.7085 -0.733
Power Corrodes the Spirit 369 32.0 49.59% -1.714 0.2662 -0.849
Promising Farmlands 389 33.38 52.19% -1.389 0.6328 -0.543
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 115 35.84 74.78% -0.57 -0.0733 0.072
Thriving Communities 333 31.4 48.65% -1.315 0.744 -0.871
Unnatural Proliferation 375 35.24 53.07% -1.055 0.9023 -0.65
Untended Land Crumbles 357 30.08 45.1% -1.866 0.1667 -0.808

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3621 37.11% 36.44 75.06% 0.425 1.161 0.36
B 3067 36.89% 36.04 75.29% 0.161 0.8578 0.191
C 3935 37.74% 36.11 74.56% 0.273 0.7422 0.241
D 2809 33.71% 35.16 76.33% 0.156 0.8653 -0.017
E 2733 36.04% 36.48 77.02% 0.283 0.8276 0.549
F 2465 38.21% 36.45 76.96% 0.209 0.8705 0.303
G 2246 35.73% 35.85 76.94% 0.445 1.0762 0.228
H 2340 36.22% 35.41 76.11% 0.236 0.9006 0.336
East 458 29.54% 42.56 70.09% -0.805 -0.1431 -0.495
Northeast 303 31.13% 44.94 66.34% -0.794 -0.1345 -0.023
Northwest 245 32.65% 47.22 69.39% -0.916 -0.3053 -0.857
Southeast 238 28.99% 46.42 71.85% 0.709 1.2399 0.355
Southwest 215 28.37% 46.16 75.35% 0.084 1.0525 -0.623
West 369 31.44% 42.67 70.73% -0.379 0.4271 -0.571

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 128 0.0% 22.95 80.47% -1.654 0.5748 0.152
Not Using Events or Tokens 175 28.66% 25.06 80.57% 0.099 0.3251 -0.437
Skip Initial Invader Actions 433 13.79% 48.17 84.76% 1.696 0.7158 1.204
Start of Game Growth 530 14.77% 45.8 83.77% -0.43 -0.8864 -0.355
Unlimited Undo 1498 32.05% 39.81 80.44% 0.626 0.0743 0.802
Using Tokens but Not Events 1211 15.17% 28.13 83.15% -0.065 0.0905 0.099

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 811 100.0% 40.79 100.0% 0.138 0.0623 0.449
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 167 100.0% 34.65 100.0% -0.072 0.0064 0.248
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 217 100.0% 30.22 100.0% -1.051 -1.2756 -0.878
Eyes Watch From the Trees 309 100.0% 33.22 100.0% -0.202 -0.7046 -0.013
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 260 100.0% 32.45 100.0% 0.256 -0.3303 -0.187
Finder of Paths Unseen 754 100.0% 36.35 100.0% -0.259 0.0969 0.586
Fractured Days Split the Sky 209 100.0% 53.18 100.0% 0.35 0.4318 0.333
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 272 100.0% 35.53 100.0% -0.278 -0.3733 -0.369
Heart of the Wildfire 255 100.0% 33.27 100.0% -0.917 -0.5118 -0.923
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 731 100.0% 38.6 100.0% 0.561 -0.0426 0.547
Lightning's Swift Strike 137 364.34% 34.3 195.62% 0.254 0.6189 0.429
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 294 43.75% 37.65 82.31% 0.987 0.238 -0.02
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 80 23.75% 38.83 86.25% 1.06 0.4963 0.178
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 288 46.18% 59.35 76.39% 0.873 0.3791 0.539
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 474 100.0% 39.81 100.0% -0.042 -0.1932 -0.057
Many Minds Move as One 188 100.0% 38.56 100.0% -0.264 -0.8495 0.377
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 593 100.0% 41.06 100.0% -0.393 -0.563 0.057
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 194 100.0% 31.13 100.0% -0.253 -0.3092 -0.556
River Surges in Sunlight 264 256.62% 34.52 154.55% -0.232 -0.3058 -0.951
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 163 22.09% 40.62 85.89% 1.046 1.4723 1.328
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 547 44.53% 51.11 77.88% 0.757 0.4159 0.163
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 425 100.0% 46.56 100.0% 0.04 -0.1534 -0.042
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 19 700.0% 29.32 378.95% -0.279 0.1957 -0.704
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 77 46.75% 31.68 81.82% -0.524 -0.3449 0.449
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 107 50.0% 36.05 76.64% 0.095 0.1501 0.237
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 31 35.48% 30.52 74.19% -0.512 -0.535 -0.265
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 21 40.0% 25.71 71.43% 0.216 0.3321 -0.799
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 236 100.0% 39.07 100.0% -0.103 -0.294 0.357
Shifting Memory of Ages 270 100.0% 38.97 100.0% -0.73 -0.5153 -0.516
Shroud of Silent Mist 217 100.0% 31.85 100.0% -0.127 0.0066 -0.208
Starlight Seeks its Form 796 100.0% 47.34 100.0% -0.047 -0.1623 0.272
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 308 100.0% 36.6 100.0% -0.059 -0.2974 -0.227
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 199 100.0% 35.55 100.0% -0.28 -0.1502 0.578
Thunderspeaker 238 100.0% 38.83 100.0% -0.217 -0.2342 -0.312
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 195 100.0% 39.94 100.0% 0.299 0.0835 0.482
Vital Strength of the Earth 64 412.31% 29.13 242.19% -0.387 0.5114 0.395
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 293 35.96% 41.84 71.67% -0.2 0.2231 -0.127
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 32 50.0% 29.59 75.0% 0.532 1.6465 -0.291
Volcano Looming High 361 100.0% 36.3 100.0% 0.211 0.1905 -0.221

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dark Skies Loose a Stinging Rain 87.27%
Foundations Sink Into Mud 91.95%
Gift of Abundance 89.98%
Unbearable Deluge 96.61%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2005 22.65 9.58%
II 4342 31.08 69.14%
III 4641 34.66 88.67%
IV 2886 37.91 99.97%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 192
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4081
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2916
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2874
Lose: Invader deck ran out 284
Lose: Adversary condition 1825
Win: Sacrifice victory 21
Lose: Scenario condition 112
Win: Scenario condition 110
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1374
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.684 Win Model: -0.209

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.5 Win Model: 0.334
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 7795 36.87% 32.48 70.07%
2 3264 39.01% 35.05 76.44%
3 1521 35.26% 36.02 80.01%
4 800 37.09% 43.13 78.25%
5 80 30.38% 38.54 78.75%
6 414 27.34% 48.98 79.95%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)