Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 61 22.95% 26.98 75.41% -0.027 -0.2828 -0.142
Blitz 0 172 23.75% 38.59 65.7% -0.287 -0.0897 -0.204
Dahan Insurrection 4 215 16.74% 46.58 65.12% 0.177 -0.2652 0.323
Despicable Theft 2 38 39.47% 27.05 57.89% -0.694 0.1184 -0.033
Elemental Invocation 1 63 24.19% 23.44 61.9% -0.479 0.2238 -1.197
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 772 12.56% 42.46 63.34% 0.138 -0.5064 0.34
Powers Long Forgotten 1 32 37.5% 25.16 50.0% -0.285 0.3502 -0.55
Rituals of Terror 3 41 19.51% 42.37 78.05% -0.54 -0.4389 0.691
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 64.29% 29.07 50.0% -0.649 0.3601 -0.123
Second Wave 0 495 28.33% 28.06 76.97% 0.112 0.1779 0.367
The Great River 3 37 48.65% 27.97 35.14% -1.066 0.1518 -1.173
Varied Terrains 2 157 47.13% 28.13 59.24% -0.355 0.2682 -0.443
Ward the Shores 2 57 42.86% 28.95 57.89% -0.644 0.4399 -0.526

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 11236 35.4% 29.02 62.66% 0.16 0.2145 0.374
1 Thematic 301 40.2% 30.17 50.17% -0.123 0.3544 0.088
2 Archipelago 29 31.03% 24.9 48.28% -0.626 -0.5219 -0.744
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3402 39.12% 31.69 70.08% 0.445 0.5269 0.468
2 Coastline 545 32.53% 32.83 73.94% 0.517 0.3627 1.048
2 Fragment 106 51.92% 31.73 67.92% 0.66 0.4112 1.459
2 Heart 85 54.12% 32.44 50.59% 0.15 -0.1374 0.19
2 Opposite Shores 852 32.47% 31.05 70.07% 0.13 0.1532 -0.099
2 Thematic 219 30.73% 31.6 64.84% 0.334 0.7376 0.556
2 Top to Top 195 34.36% 36.72 72.31% 1.064 0.8978 0.907
3 Archipelago 19 36.84% 36.53 68.42% 1.148 -0.4009 -0.055
3 Coastline 29 34.48% 24.31 68.97% 0.095 -0.4181 -0.004
3 Other 73 29.17% 25.21 65.75% 0.164 0.7049 0.866
3 Round (Default) 2290 34.24% 33.72 73.62% 0.199 0.0839 0.197
3 Sunrise 7 42.86% 25.57 42.86% -0.979 -0.6992 0.0
3 Thematic 70 38.57% 36.53 68.57% 0.506 0.586 0.171
4 Archipelago 21 33.33% 45.29 52.38% -1.029 -1.7037 0.08
4 Coastline 10 10.0% 33.5 90.0% -0.068 0.1634 0.595
4 Leaf 7 28.57% 28.29 85.71% -0.027 -0.3699 0.0
4 Other 46 34.78% 26.5 84.78% 0.825 -0.2584 0.686
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.31
4 Thematic 113 36.28% 39.63 51.33% 0.12 -0.1419 -0.652
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1317 34.85% 36.52 66.29% -0.5 -0.5825 -0.964
5 Archipelago 3 33.33% 26.67 100.0% 0.0 -0.9161 0.05
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 40.25 100.0% 0.0 -0.6517 -0.613
5 Other 159 19.35% 31.19 78.62% -0.383 -0.6675 -0.633
5 Thematic 19 52.63% 44.95 57.89% -0.394 -0.4875 -0.662
6 Archipelago 9 25.0% 45.22 88.89% 0.068 0.2195 0.157
6 Coastline 9 16.67% 35.56 88.89% 0.188 -0.6133 0.143
6 Other 106 31.73% 35.25 70.75% -0.063 -0.2957 -1.726
6 Star 94 30.85% 35.93 68.09% -0.52 -0.5329 -1.017
6 Thematic 270 21.29% 35.87 50.74% -1.794 -1.3731 -1.856
6 Two Centers (Default) 283 19.86% 42.45 75.97% -1.075 -0.9714 -1.023
7 Archipelago 8 12.5% 61.38 62.5% -0.853 -0.8721 -0.582
7 Other 8 25.0% 27.0 87.5% 0.632 0.0199 -0.345

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 501 33.97 51.7% 0.318 0.5603 0.015
Aid From Lesser Spirits 484 34.76 55.37% 0.301 0.2238 -0.082
All Things Weaken 513 32.88 49.51% -0.603 -0.2103 0.023
Attenuated Essence 70 23.4 35.71% -0.073 0.0342 -0.944
Back Against the Wall 489 35.86 56.03% -0.051 0.0065 0.189
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 76 24.51 30.26% -0.815 -0.6131 -1.082
Burn Brightest Before the End 66 27.38 37.88% -0.326 -0.1159 -0.732
Disintegrating Ecosystem 508 29.35 45.28% -0.876 -0.4526 -0.335
Downward Spiral 578 31.68 50.52% 0.271 0.5066 -0.0
Erosion of Will 519 31.83 44.12% -0.42 -0.1104 -0.365
Intensifying Exploitation 97 29.05 43.3% 0.294 0.5813 -0.464
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 214 35.95 69.63% 0.327 -0.1673 0.143
Memory Fades to Dust 558 28.19 48.03% -0.297 0.0397 -0.451
Power Corrodes the Spirit 545 30.6 48.62% 0.121 0.3416 -0.358
Promising Farmlands 518 31.14 47.88% -0.106 0.3477 -0.115
Shattered Fragments of Power 59 29.85 37.29% -0.144 -0.093 -0.572
Slow Dissolution of Will 69 24.33 28.99% -0.354 0.0454 -0.913
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 176 35.19 73.3% 1.237 0.526 0.506
The Border of Life and Death 18 19.33 55.56% -0.374 -0.7097 -1.195
Thriving Communities 510 29.74 48.04% 0.168 0.5308 -0.311
Thriving Crops 54 33.56 48.15% 0.237 0.0389 -0.516
Unnatural Proliferation 540 34.52 52.96% 0.445 0.6601 -0.079
Untended Land Crumbles 490 29.0 43.47% -0.303 -0.0212 -0.377

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5978 35.49% 32.91 67.7% 0.348 1.0884 0.43
B 4978 34.2% 32.58 67.7% -0.031 0.6948 0.271
C 6319 34.77% 32.5 67.64% 0.234 0.8167 0.286
D 4675 31.71% 31.21 68.47% 0.052 0.7633 -0.004
E 4492 34.34% 32.84 68.72% 0.158 0.7229 0.388
F 4144 36.33% 32.4 68.27% 0.016 0.6865 0.284
G 3746 34.47% 32.21 69.43% 0.13 0.7814 0.277
H 3881 33.59% 31.96 69.72% 0.406 0.976 0.376
East 823 31.78% 35.52 56.14% -0.215 0.324 -0.578
Northeast 546 29.55% 35.62 53.48% -0.261 0.3738 0.467
Northwest 474 28.69% 35.28 52.53% 0.186 0.9949 -0.743
Southeast 477 30.43% 35.97 52.83% -0.001 0.7049 -0.447
Southwest 427 26.19% 34.59 55.5% -0.591 0.3993 -0.66
West 717 30.7% 33.9 54.95% -0.469 0.4347 -0.394

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 243 0.0% 17.55 57.61% -1.331 -0.5545 -0.547
Not Using Events or Tokens 397 21.6% 21.62 64.99% -0.042 0.3369 -0.294
Skip Initial Invader Actions 630 12.0% 45.95 78.57% 1.245 0.6272 1.928
Start of Game Growth 852 15.08% 41.85 73.24% -0.257 -0.6052 -0.965
Unlimited Undo 2534 29.53% 34.01 68.51% -0.077 -0.0837 0.559
Using Tokens but Not Events 2092 15.93% 25.59 74.19% 0.275 0.2644 0.235

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1527 100.0% 36.28 100.0% 0.249 0.1009 0.558
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 289 100.0% 27.04 100.0% -1.138 -1.0078 -0.402
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 356 100.0% 27.62 100.0% 0.115 -0.0297 -0.546
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 538 100.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.262 -0.5036 -0.234
Eyes Watch From the Trees 514 100.0% 30.76 100.0% 0.38 -0.2088 0.081
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 427 100.0% 30.66 100.0% 0.203 -0.2941 -0.2
Finder of Paths Unseen 1036 100.0% 33.1 100.0% -0.432 0.232 0.689
Fractured Days Split the Sky 398 100.0% 44.71 100.0% -0.109 0.477 0.122
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 427 100.0% 31.72 100.0% 0.373 0.2784 -0.141
Heart of the Wildfire 545 100.0% 27.23 100.0% -0.461 -0.2198 -0.669
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1176 100.0% 35.8 100.0% 0.31 -0.132 0.679
Lightning's Swift Strike 277 321.8% 27.83 215.16% 0.081 0.2639 0.569
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 417 42.12% 36.43 78.66% 0.377 -0.1097 0.35
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 136 24.44% 33.96 72.06% -0.09 -0.2577 0.55
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 528 42.42% 48.16 63.64% 0.225 0.1121 0.669
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 815 100.0% 34.73 100.0% -0.025 -0.1578 -0.344
Many Minds Move as One 366 100.0% 36.23 100.0% 0.419 0.1978 0.095
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1001 100.0% 36.23 100.0% -0.034 -0.0767 0.181
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 362 100.0% 27.96 100.0% -0.116 -0.2934 -0.071
River Surges in Sunlight 404 273.32% 31.46 191.09% 0.161 0.2308 -0.426
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 295 21.92% 32.42 66.44% -0.663 -0.3529 0.716
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 848 41.24% 44.51 68.28% -0.106 -0.2197 -0.096
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 861 100.0% 37.89 100.0% -0.175 -0.4129 -0.138
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 67 374.32% 24.63 247.76% -0.003 0.5266 -1.075
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 110 37.61% 30.55 80.91% 0.729 0.6539 0.372
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 148 45.89% 32.49 67.57% -0.271 -0.3771 -0.125
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 56 40.0% 28.25 71.43% 0.086 0.0673 -0.266
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 39 36.11% 21.92 64.1% 0.272 0.4486 -1.057
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 382 114.92% 35.87 106.54% 0.129 -0.0611 0.547
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 76 25.0% 34.88 67.11% 0.695 0.3135 0.663
Shifting Memory of Ages 488 100.0% 33.33 100.0% -0.363 -0.0102 -0.501
Shroud of Silent Mist 390 100.0% 26.76 100.0% -0.679 -0.4285 -0.264
Starlight Seeks its Form 1268 100.0% 41.84 100.0% 0.307 0.0455 0.301
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 553 100.0% 33.35 100.0% 0.468 -0.0089 -0.08
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 303 100.0% 33.54 100.0% 0.188 0.2512 0.667
Thunderspeaker 391 111.25% 34.98 108.95% -0.087 -0.1213 0.388
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 76 42.11% 24.33 53.95% 0.33 0.2905 -0.759
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 330 100.0% 32.64 100.0% -0.26 -0.1667 0.208
Vital Strength of the Earth 132 356.2% 26.39 244.7% 0.036 0.5608 0.704
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 459 29.82% 35.6 62.96% -0.142 0.1189 -0.058
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 57 43.64% 24.63 63.16% -0.451 0.3255 -1.039
Volcano Looming High 628 100.0% 32.04 100.0% -0.4 -0.4425 -0.146

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dark Skies Loose a Stinging Rain 87.58%
Foundations Sink Into Mud 92.49%
Gift of Abundance 90.51%
Unbearable Deluge 96.61%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4629 20.4 5.53%
II 6442 31.01 64.68%
III 6762 34.76 87.81%
IV 4116 38.07 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 256
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5882
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4031
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4093
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2166
Lose: Invader deck ran out 424
Lose: Adversary condition 2595
Win: Sacrifice victory 34
Lose: Scenario condition 170
Win: Scenario condition 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1999
Lose: Spirit destroyed 126

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.112 Win Model: -0.143

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.254 Win Model: 0.35
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 11572 35.52% 29.02 62.29%
2 5443 37.47% 31.96 70.02%
3 2470 34.27% 33.4 72.96%
4 1521 34.18% 36.4 66.34%
5 165 20.5% 31.07 70.3%
6 778 23.85% 39.07 67.22%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)