Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 32 34.38% 26.94 78.13% -0.645 -0.847 -0.602
Blitz 0 32 37.93% 32.13 71.88% -0.368 -0.1104 -0.833
Dahan Insurrection 4 42 9.52% 55.29 92.86% 0.237 0.6505 0.69
Despicable Theft 2 7 28.57% 32.71 100.0% 0.519 0.9652 0.0
Elemental Invocation 1 15 26.67% 29.27 93.33% 0.345 0.8308 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 285 9.47% 45.68 75.09% -0.457 -0.151 -0.157
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 50.0% 20.25 37.5% -1.651 -1.4693 -0.475
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 42.22 66.67% -0.276 -0.1552 -0.741
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 66.67% 35.17 50.0% -0.695 -0.2803 0.183
Second Wave 0 105 27.0% 30.26 82.86% -0.491 0.0745 -0.578
The Great River 3 10 50.0% 30.9 40.0% -1.694 -0.2959 -0.47
Varied Terrains 2 62 53.23% 29.69 67.74% -0.818 -0.2925 0.542
Ward the Shores 2 15 35.71% 34.73 80.0% -0.522 0.6393 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4864 35.91% 32.54 71.16% 0.416 1.4321 -0.192
1 Thematic 56 39.29% 30.16 69.64% 0.232 1.4047 -0.541
2 Archipelago 15 46.67% 31.27 66.67% -0.407 0.5763 -1.124
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1148 42.59% 35.29 76.74% 0.457 1.2084 -0.011
2 Coastline 196 32.65% 37.7 78.57% 0.624 1.2267 0.581
2 Fragment 35 48.57% 37.97 71.43% 0.573 1.0201 0.611
2 Heart 20 55.0% 29.5 55.0% -0.007 0.5311 0.047
2 Opposite Shores 323 30.96% 30.44 80.5% 0.13 1.1223 -0.731
2 Thematic 75 28.38% 35.83 85.33% 0.719 1.4178 0.431
2 Top to Top 71 38.03% 36.86 67.61% 0.22 0.7301 0.416
3 Archipelago 5 100.0% 27.2 20.0% -1.051 -0.8773 -0.205
3 Coastline 8 50.0% 23.0 75.0% 0.277 -0.5056 0.3
3 Other 25 28.0% 31.4 80.0% -0.0 -0.0359 0.86
3 Round (Default) 716 33.71% 33.91 81.98% 0.069 0.6642 0.141
3 Sunrise 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0% -0.519 -0.4822 0.0
3 Thematic 19 42.11% 33.89 78.95% 0.071 0.0335 0.524
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.75 75.0% -0.11 -0.8209 0.0
4 Coastline 4 0.0% 35.5 100.0% 0.051 0.1678 0.0
4 Leaf 1 100.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.175 0.7377 0.0
4 Other 11 27.27% 21.36 90.91% -0.024 -0.2777 -0.224
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.349 0.1619 0.357
4 Thematic 19 42.11% 31.47 52.63% -1.789 -1.2595 0.0
4 Trapezoid (Default) 296 35.25% 42.16 81.76% -0.208 -0.2348 -0.87
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.054 -0.5247 0.0
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.005 -0.5602 0.0
5 Other 34 23.53% 29.15 85.29% -0.516 -0.3476 -0.593
6 Coastline 3 0.0% 56.67 100.0% 0.115 -0.4736 0.228
6 Other 29 31.03% 42.48 82.76% -0.906 -0.0968 0.156
6 Star 18 33.33% 36.5 66.67% -1.582 -0.7985 -1.351
6 Thematic 59 28.81% 53.02 77.97% -0.5 -0.7783 -1.173
6 Two Centers (Default) 70 30.43% 58.56 92.86% 0.153 0.0585 0.018
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0% 0.065 -0.5121 0.099
7 Other 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.14 -1.0125 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 217 34.58 53.46% -1.335 0.5681 -0.588
Aid From Lesser Spirits 192 33.94 56.77% -1.237 0.4926 -0.344
All Things Weaken 215 34.1 52.56% -1.377 0.6088 -0.338
Back Against the Wall 207 36.97 63.29% -1.08 0.7364 -0.219
Disintegrating Ecosystem 209 30.11 48.8% -1.565 0.4857 -0.746
Downward Spiral 248 32.44 51.61% -1.458 0.5348 -0.566
Erosion of Will 216 33.4 43.52% -1.722 0.3613 -0.967
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 76 36.89 67.11% -0.68 -0.2393 -0.114
Memory Fades to Dust 203 30.42 52.71% -1.475 0.6091 -0.741
Power Corrodes the Spirit 227 32.34 53.74% -1.415 0.523 -0.674
Promising Farmlands 229 33.81 54.59% -1.315 0.7307 -0.641
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 72 34.46 76.39% -0.389 0.0359 0.115
Thriving Communities 193 31.56 47.67% -1.51 0.4732 -0.683
Unnatural Proliferation 229 33.06 49.78% -1.522 0.4427 -0.777
Untended Land Crumbles 199 29.57 46.73% -1.748 0.2453 -0.723

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2055 37.33% 35.18 75.18% 0.097 0.8947 0.083
B 1655 37.44% 34.84 75.65% 0.087 0.8306 -0.07
C 2231 36.82% 35.24 74.94% 0.376 0.9444 0.092
D 1518 32.12% 34.19 77.8% 0.043 0.8388 -0.129
E 1584 34.84% 35.46 77.15% 0.282 0.9295 0.365
F 1317 38.0% 35.29 78.74% 0.262 0.9863 0.244
G 1238 35.64% 34.91 77.63% 0.106 0.8376 -0.137
H 1261 35.26% 34.98 77.56% 0.065 0.7769 0.298
East 200 33.67% 39.26 75.5% -0.124 0.6451 0.281
Northeast 127 33.33% 42.31 74.02% -0.232 0.6278 -0.136
Northwest 97 29.9% 45.71 78.35% 0.441 1.5178 0.431
Southeast 100 36.0% 44.62 76.0% 0.205 0.9108 0.005
Southwest 93 33.33% 44.32 77.42% -0.649 0.4762 -0.854
West 154 31.82% 40.49 77.92% -0.907 0.0472 -0.485

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 61 0.0% 21.7 86.89% -0.643 1.4863 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 61 26.79% 21.46 80.33% -0.598 -0.4227 -0.221
Skip Initial Invader Actions 171 10.56% 48.59 84.8% 0.101 -0.0411 0.587
Start of Game Growth 217 11.64% 46.04 85.25% 0.699 -0.0613 -0.434
Unlimited Undo 885 32.63% 39.94 79.32% 0.321 -0.2829 0.604
Using Tokens but Not Events 652 14.93% 26.68 83.13% -0.306 -0.4628 0.374

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 403 100.0% 40.85 100.0% 0.192 0.0776 0.373
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 73 100.0% 36.68 100.0% 0.135 0.2308 0.668
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 97 100.0% 27.58 100.0% -0.789 -0.9501 -1.441
Eyes Watch From the Trees 159 100.0% 32.35 100.0% -0.106 -0.544 0.033
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 122 100.0% 30.66 100.0% -0.233 -0.7207 -0.247
Finder of Paths Unseen 445 100.0% 35.02 100.0% 0.146 0.5091 0.929
Fractured Days Split the Sky 85 100.0% 53.71 100.0% 0.491 0.5468 0.099
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 133 100.0% 33.93 100.0% -0.201 -0.2333 -0.372
Heart of the Wildfire 124 100.0% 36.2 100.0% 0.093 0.268 -0.568
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 354 100.0% 38.36 100.0% 0.444 -0.0121 0.56
Lightning's Swift Strike 69 354.05% 33.45 194.2% 0.896 1.1699 0.468
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 190 44.86% 35.54 81.05% 0.278 -0.4985 -0.059
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 43 23.26% 35.44 86.05% -0.123 -0.7662 -0.234
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 97 45.36% 57.78 76.29% 1.158 0.8919 0.361
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 229 100.0% 37.87 100.0% 0.167 -0.0997 0.066
Many Minds Move as One 84 100.0% 38.46 100.0% 0.167 -0.4364 0.378
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 298 100.0% 40.54 100.0% 0.14 -0.0452 0.011
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 89 100.0% 28.11 100.0% -0.566 -0.5457 -1.08
River Surges in Sunlight 131 281.06% 31.9 154.2% -0.639 -0.6728 -0.382
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 99 20.2% 37.06 81.82% -0.186 0.2452 0.796
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 262 38.7% 46.26 79.77% 0.406 0.1058 0.241
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 197 100.0% 47.12 100.0% 0.302 0.2493 0.413
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7 987.5% 28.14 528.57% -0.255 0.1552 -0.533
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 56 51.79% 29.59 82.14% 0.264 0.2706 0.054
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 69 52.17% 34.13 75.36% 0.081 -0.2654 0.365
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 11 27.27% 33.18 90.91% 0.269 0.2884 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 8 57.14% 20.38 75.0% -0.485 -0.3021 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 97 100.0% 38.21 100.0% 0.426 0.1393 0.471
Shifting Memory of Ages 122 100.0% 37.45 100.0% -0.156 -0.0815 -0.42
Shroud of Silent Mist 92 100.0% 32.28 100.0% -0.014 0.2224 -0.605
Starlight Seeks its Form 365 100.0% 46.38 100.0% 0.277 0.1376 0.35
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 155 100.0% 35.54 100.0% -0.394 -0.5761 -0.428
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 95 100.0% 30.95 100.0% -0.2 -0.0154 0.165
Thunderspeaker 86 100.0% 35.34 100.0% -0.356 -0.2916 -0.038
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 117 100.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.312 0.221 0.474
Vital Strength of the Earth 33 469.7% 29.27 260.61% -0.352 0.4567 0.5
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 185 37.84% 39.66 74.05% -0.31 0.0772 -0.093
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 14 50.0% 23.71 64.29% -0.767 0.4077 -0.711
Volcano Looming High 181 100.0% 35.43 100.0% -0.098 -0.1026 -0.268

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dark Skies Loose a Stinging Rain 88.21%
Foundations Sink Into Mud 92.47%
Gift of Abundance 90.01%
Unbearable Deluge 97.15%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1130 22.56 9.03%
II 2563 30.98 70.74%
III 2731 34.53 88.43%
IV 1710 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 102
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2399
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1772
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1706
Lose: Invader deck ran out 171
Lose: Adversary condition 1032
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 51
Lose: Blight pool ran out 778
Lose: Spirit destroyed 54

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.521 Win Model: -0.253

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.443 Win Model: 0.467
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4927 35.95% 32.52 71.12%
2 1883 39.2% 34.74 77.22%
3 774 34.42% 33.64 81.27%
4 333 35.24% 40.65 80.78%
5 39 20.51% 31.77 82.05%
6 178 29.55% 52.25 85.39%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)