Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 26.0% 29.16 78.0% -0.158 -0.6047 -0.097
Blitz 0 111 26.26% 45.95 75.68% 1.062 1.5191 -0.302
Dahan Insurrection 4 137 21.9% 54.58 74.45% -0.208 -0.1878 0.304
Despicable Theft 2 26 50.0% 35.23 73.08% -1.02 -0.5075 0.696
Elemental Invocation 1 36 25.0% 28.0 75.0% -1.38 -0.6805 -1.123
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 589 12.22% 46.82 70.46% -0.418 -0.3764 -0.18
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 41.18% 32.29 58.82% 0.225 0.7869 -0.222
Rituals of Terror 3 30 26.67% 51.3 90.0% 1.117 0.8289 0.514
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 11 72.73% 33.82 54.55% 0.015 0.4452 -0.009
Second Wave 0 327 23.64% 30.46 83.79% 0.095 0.5573 -0.045
The Great River 3 25 52.0% 35.2 40.0% 0.433 2.199 -1.257
Varied Terrains 2 105 46.67% 31.56 68.57% 0.006 0.8346 0.136
Ward the Shores 2 37 41.67% 34.68 67.57% -0.632 0.1123 -0.66

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8448 36.79% 32.23 69.53% 0.175 0.7251 0.145
1 Thematic 182 36.81% 35.01 67.03% 0.145 1.1428 0.292
2 Archipelago 17 41.18% 32.94 70.59% 0.0 0.6175 -0.931
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2302 41.21% 34.92 76.46% 0.459 0.8689 0.37
2 Coastline 387 31.61% 35.22 79.07% 0.102 0.2378 0.856
2 Fragment 76 52.63% 36.83 72.37% 0.382 0.3769 1.507
2 Heart 47 55.32% 32.26 55.32% 0.183 0.6581 0.126
2 Opposite Shores 614 35.07% 34.36 77.85% 0.487 0.8406 -0.243
2 Thematic 160 32.08% 35.36 71.88% 0.077 1.0066 -0.314
2 Top to Top 142 34.51% 38.08 72.54% 0.328 0.4541 0.421
3 Archipelago 12 41.67% 37.58 58.33% 0.431 0.6094 -0.161
3 Coastline 21 38.1% 26.62 76.19% 0.232 -0.1842 0.082
3 Other 51 28.0% 27.69 72.55% 0.239 -0.4797 0.629
3 Round (Default) 1651 35.17% 36.47 80.19% 0.007 0.2005 0.24
3 Sunrise 5 20.0% 29.4 60.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 52 34.62% 38.08 71.15% -0.287 -0.2717 0.566
4 Archipelago 14 28.57% 55.86 71.43% 0.605 0.1854 -0.063
4 Coastline 8 0.0% 34.88 100.0% 0.846 0.7736 0.566
4 Leaf 4 50.0% 24.75 100.0% 0.046 -0.0503 0.0
4 Other 28 28.57% 27.96 89.29% 0.461 -0.1551 0.344
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.407
4 Thematic 74 28.38% 43.32 54.05% -0.859 -0.5765 -0.911
4 Trapezoid (Default) 851 37.74% 42.8 76.73% -0.625 -0.4371 -0.74
5 Archipelago 2 50.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.076 -0.3081 0.029
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 40.25 100.0% 0.0 0.1073 -0.625
5 Other 107 22.64% 35.27 89.72% 0.688 0.0568 -0.525
5 Thematic 12 75.0% 54.92 66.67% -0.283 -1.2579 -0.503
6 Archipelago 8 28.57% 47.63 87.5% -0.426 -0.496 0.216
6 Coastline 6 0.0% 42.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.9494 0.191
6 Other 80 26.92% 37.81 71.25% -0.424 -0.6663 -1.718
6 Star 59 28.81% 37.86 69.49% -1.149 -0.6028 -1.284
6 Thematic 156 26.32% 50.69 69.87% -0.761 -0.7154 -1.31
6 Two Centers (Default) 173 26.35% 52.13 89.6% -0.68 -0.2166 -0.095
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 100.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.221 0.087
7 Other 6 16.67% 31.67 100.0% -0.463 -0.8241 -0.053

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 412 35.06 52.18% -0.724 1.0061 -0.351
Aid From Lesser Spirits 392 36.08 56.63% -0.765 0.8109 -0.455
All Things Weaken 426 34.97 52.58% -1.14 0.7381 -0.408
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% -0.566 0.2884 -0.538
Back Against the Wall 401 37.06 59.35% -0.711 0.9256 -0.286
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 29.5 50.0% -0.292 0.7165 -0.568
Disintegrating Ecosystem 397 31.32 49.87% -1.323 0.5203 -0.625
Downward Spiral 484 32.67 51.03% -1.192 0.5066 -0.485
Erosion of Will 424 33.74 46.46% -1.142 0.7585 -0.83
Intensifying Exploitation 3 17.33 0.0% -1.016 -0.1272 -0.299
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 172 38.65 73.26% 0.546 1.0459 -0.153
Memory Fades to Dust 427 30.58 51.99% -1.663 0.2128 -0.694
Power Corrodes the Spirit 431 32.17 50.35% -1.405 0.3 -0.655
Promising Farmlands 429 32.8 50.35% -1.334 0.5416 -0.562
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 35.0 0.0% -0.419 0.7369 -0.567
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 4.0 0.0% -1.118 0.3528 -0.872
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 124 36.12 75.0% -0.224 -0.0136 0.083
Thriving Communities 377 31.54 49.34% -0.987 0.8833 -0.807
Unnatural Proliferation 422 35.36 52.61% -0.92 0.8345 -0.577
Untended Land Crumbles 401 29.89 44.89% -1.654 0.1604 -0.771

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4193 36.71% 36.15 74.58% 0.318 1.0958 0.336
B 3528 36.1% 35.96 74.77% 0.064 0.7677 0.185
C 4483 37.11% 35.94 74.37% 0.295 0.8226 0.241
D 3262 33.25% 34.93 76.12% 0.347 1.0817 0.032
E 3121 35.72% 36.5 76.67% 0.441 1.0246 0.545
F 2857 38.21% 36.28 76.3% 0.142 0.8489 0.287
G 2660 34.99% 35.8 76.58% 0.169 0.8111 0.189
H 2715 35.6% 35.24 76.1% 0.223 0.8677 0.337
East 532 30.74% 42.22 67.48% -0.574 0.0175 -0.579
Northeast 351 32.08% 44.15 63.82% -0.6 0.077 -0.118
Northwest 289 32.98% 46.25 66.78% 0.286 0.7237 -0.493
Southeast 277 29.3% 45.66 70.04% -0.525 0.1383 0.181
Southwest 260 29.3% 44.47 72.31% -0.219 0.9521 -0.711
West 450 33.41% 41.96 68.0% -0.336 0.4819 -0.46

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 160 0.0% 21.36 73.75% -2.125 -0.0494 0.117
Not Using Events or Tokens 218 30.92% 25.17 79.36% -0.073 0.0982 -0.524
Skip Initial Invader Actions 503 13.07% 49.27 84.89% 1.161 0.1023 1.6
Start of Game Growth 614 14.13% 46.77 83.71% 0.293 -0.1297 -0.369
Unlimited Undo 1702 31.63% 39.6 79.91% 0.424 0.0086 0.764
Using Tokens but Not Events 1464 15.13% 28.26 81.63% -0.08 0.0355 0.102

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 977 100.0% 41.03 100.0% 0.443 0.2641 0.545
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 205 100.0% 32.61 100.0% -1.113 -1.0982 -0.107
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 254 100.0% 30.04 100.0% -0.327 -0.5723 -0.719
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 22 100.0% 27.0 100.0% -0.576 -0.3406 -0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 369 100.0% 32.7 100.0% 0.044 -0.4294 0.029
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 305 100.0% 32.28 100.0% 0.134 -0.313 -0.233
Finder of Paths Unseen 816 100.0% 36.12 100.0% -0.055 0.309 0.591
Fractured Days Split the Sky 255 100.0% 52.16 100.0% -0.281 -0.1777 0.316
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 315 100.0% 35.61 100.0% 0.331 0.2666 -0.325
Heart of the Wildfire 329 100.0% 32.78 100.0% -0.295 -0.0364 -0.764
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 856 100.0% 38.58 100.0% 0.764 0.1811 0.623
Lightning's Swift Strike 164 369.19% 33.17 201.83% 0.23 0.4983 0.609
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 343 42.09% 37.84 82.51% 0.801 -0.0129 0.222
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 97 27.84% 38.65 83.51% 0.353 -0.1897 0.419
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 360 44.72% 57.03 74.72% 0.696 0.2179 0.586
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 567 100.0% 39.23 100.0% -0.298 -0.4195 -0.124
Many Minds Move as One 238 100.0% 38.83 100.0% 0.119 -0.5038 0.38
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 708 100.0% 41.65 100.0% 0.21 0.0826 0.231
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 231 100.0% 30.77 100.0% -0.635 -0.7184 -0.554
River Surges in Sunlight 301 260.45% 33.72 158.47% -0.1 -0.2924 -0.958
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 186 22.83% 40.83 84.95% 0.512 0.7995 1.299
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 640 43.51% 50.24 76.88% 0.492 0.1292 0.077
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 525 100.0% 45.73 100.0% 0.587 0.4136 0.072
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 29 529.41% 28.07 327.59% -0.061 0.3319 -0.825
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 86 43.02% 32.17 81.4% -0.761 -0.6642 0.248
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 116 49.12% 35.9 75.0% -0.471 -0.3963 0.153
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 39 31.58% 29.85 71.79% -0.385 -0.4206 -0.267
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 27 48.0% 23.15 62.96% -0.283 -0.2798 -1.157
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 292 100.34% 39.01 100.34% 0.306 0.106 0.368
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 4 75.0% 32.0 75.0% 0.33 0.6242 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 324 100.0% 38.26 100.0% -0.336 -0.1066 -0.719
Shroud of Silent Mist 240 100.0% 31.58 100.0% -0.141 0.043 -0.207
Starlight Seeks its Form 914 100.0% 46.84 100.0% 0.173 0.0165 0.224
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 365 100.0% 36.02 100.0% -0.304 -0.5678 -0.344
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 229 100.0% 35.81 100.0% 0.388 0.4512 0.661
Thunderspeaker 290 100.34% 38.56 100.0% -0.203 -0.2799 -0.169
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 3 66.67% 42.33 100.0% 0.649 0.8545 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 231 100.0% 38.97 100.0% 0.083 -0.1794 0.413
Vital Strength of the Earth 80 378.57% 28.29 236.25% -0.202 0.5508 0.406
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 335 34.94% 40.48 71.34% -0.228 0.3497 -0.151
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 39 52.63% 28.0 66.67% -0.465 0.6851 -0.328
Volcano Looming High 440 100.0% 36.39 100.0% 0.102 0.0983 -0.129

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dark Skies Loose a Stinging Rain 87.21%
Foundations Sink Into Mud 91.9%
Gift of Abundance 89.93%
Unbearable Deluge 96.55%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2296 22.63 9.36%
II 4912 31.12 68.36%
III 5291 34.7 88.4%
IV 3266 37.97 99.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 215
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4635
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3260
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3250
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 75
Lose: Invader deck ran out 334
Lose: Adversary condition 2057
Win: Sacrifice victory 25
Lose: Scenario condition 135
Win: Scenario condition 127
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1546
Lose: Spirit destroyed 106

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.667 Win Model: -0.178

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.367 Win Model: 0.255
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 8647 36.84% 32.29 69.46%
2 3755 39.05% 35.05 76.27%
3 1782 34.96% 36.15 79.41%
4 987 35.64% 42.13 76.39%
5 104 26.21% 37.44 81.73%
6 490 26.79% 47.78 79.18%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)