Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 58 24.14% 27.48 75.86% 0.187 0.1084 -0.001
Blitz 0 152 22.14% 41.41 69.74% 0.367 0.5138 -0.154
Dahan Insurrection 4 180 18.33% 49.79 68.89% -0.028 -0.2352 0.314
Despicable Theft 2 33 42.42% 29.48 63.64% -0.997 -0.3146 0.491
Elemental Invocation 1 54 24.53% 23.06 61.11% -0.914 -0.1821 -1.129
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 697 12.34% 44.48 67.0% 0.561 -0.046 0.277
Powers Long Forgotten 1 28 39.29% 26.0 53.57% -0.224 0.2641 -0.289
Rituals of Terror 3 39 20.51% 43.03 79.49% -0.262 -0.1572 0.594
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 13 69.23% 31.31 53.85% -0.265 0.7267 -0.159
Second Wave 0 443 26.64% 28.28 77.43% 0.183 0.2458 0.339
The Great River 3 34 47.06% 29.09 35.29% -1.317 0.0315 -1.241
Varied Terrains 2 135 46.67% 29.44 62.96% -0.223 0.3393 -0.408
Ward the Shores 2 50 46.94% 30.86 62.0% -0.3 0.9097 -0.646

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 10325 35.94% 29.86 64.54% -0.01 0.1992 0.192
1 Thematic 229 37.12% 31.69 59.39% -0.217 0.3813 0.568
2 Archipelago 20 40.0% 34.4 70.0% 0.073 0.4296 -0.544
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3096 39.3% 32.27 71.67% 0.354 0.5138 0.311
2 Coastline 500 32.06% 33.69 75.4% 0.506 0.5664 0.932
2 Fragment 94 51.06% 31.64 67.02% 0.177 0.1133 1.479
2 Heart 79 53.16% 32.15 49.37% 0.082 -0.1562 -0.033
2 Opposite Shores 793 33.0% 31.47 71.0% -0.022 0.1113 -0.304
2 Thematic 195 31.96% 32.83 66.67% 0.335 0.971 0.225
2 Top to Top 179 34.08% 37.09 73.18% 0.966 1.0068 0.69
3 Archipelago 18 38.89% 36.56 66.67% 0.614 -0.4724 -0.092
3 Coastline 25 36.0% 25.92 72.0% 0.079 -0.4189 0.13
3 Other 71 28.57% 24.42 64.79% -0.056 0.0537 0.588
3 Round (Default) 2045 34.63% 34.72 76.38% 0.181 0.1394 0.116
3 Sunrise 6 33.33% 26.17 50.0% -0.372 -0.1758 0.0
3 Thematic 64 32.81% 36.25 70.31% 0.42 0.4566 0.268
4 Archipelago 17 23.53% 46.0 58.82% -1.226 -1.441 -0.124
4 Coastline 10 10.0% 33.5 90.0% 0.494 0.6161 0.602
4 Leaf 6 33.33% 28.83 100.0% 0.487 0.1117 0.0
4 Other 44 36.36% 27.14 86.36% 0.785 -0.0641 0.729
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3842 0.334
4 Thematic 101 34.65% 41.05 50.5% -0.353 -0.3703 -0.612
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1174 34.92% 37.7 69.42% -0.656 -0.8421 -0.923
5 Archipelago 3 33.33% 26.67 100.0% 0.056 -1.1694 0.044
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 40.25 100.0% 0.0 -0.0429 -0.599
5 Other 142 19.42% 31.58 80.99% -0.179 -0.687 -0.226
5 Thematic 17 58.82% 50.24 64.71% 0.353 0.0234 -0.686
6 Archipelago 9 25.0% 45.22 88.89% 0.055 -0.2498 0.182
6 Coastline 9 16.67% 35.56 88.89% -0.074 -0.7177 0.169
6 Other 96 32.98% 36.93 71.88% -0.069 -0.4632 -1.634
6 Star 80 32.5% 34.15 65.0% -1.003 -0.5274 -1.147
6 Thematic 236 20.96% 38.06 52.54% -2.1 -1.7015 -1.98
6 Two Centers (Default) 253 21.86% 45.23 79.84% -0.802 -0.7586 -0.811
7 Archipelago 2 0.0% 100.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.5893 0.089
7 Other 7 14.29% 27.14 85.71% 0.451 -0.3221 -0.396

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 473 34.32 52.22% 0.467 0.7386 -0.053
Aid From Lesser Spirits 457 35.3 57.33% 0.454 0.4928 -0.161
All Things Weaken 487 33.32 50.1% -0.489 -0.0282 -0.086
Attenuated Essence 54 23.91 40.74% -0.226 -0.0199 -0.826
Back Against the Wall 461 36.43 57.05% 0.063 0.2251 0.049
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 56 23.82 32.14% -0.681 -0.2664 -1.234
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 25.98 36.36% -0.474 -0.1689 -1.328
Disintegrating Ecosystem 463 29.72 46.87% -0.894 -0.3677 -0.378
Downward Spiral 535 32.13 50.65% -0.052 0.3009 -0.135
Erosion of Will 494 32.03 44.53% -0.449 -0.0408 -0.51
Intensifying Exploitation 73 29.56 49.32% 0.054 0.4405 -0.489
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 199 36.78 70.85% 0.381 -0.1439 0.028
Memory Fades to Dust 515 29.1 50.1% -0.412 0.0697 -0.515
Power Corrodes the Spirit 512 30.73 48.83% 0.038 0.3425 -0.452
Promising Farmlands 496 31.43 48.19% -0.565 0.0206 -0.234
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 27.66 37.5% -0.308 -0.1291 -0.756
Slow Dissolution of Will 49 22.63 26.53% -0.612 -0.0781 -1.095
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 161 35.1 73.91% 0.641 -0.0364 0.515
The Border of Life and Death 14 17.71 57.14% -0.03 -0.1595 -0.812
Thriving Communities 459 30.18 47.93% -0.106 0.3869 -0.449
Thriving Crops 35 35.94 57.14% 0.222 0.3101 -0.389
Unnatural Proliferation 493 34.43 52.33% 0.132 0.4292 -0.266
Untended Land Crumbles 459 29.39 44.66% -0.263 0.0955 -0.444

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5402 35.74% 33.51 69.46% 0.269 1.1089 0.356
B 4540 34.53% 33.38 69.76% 0.054 0.8325 0.222
C 5697 35.5% 33.4 69.56% 0.289 0.943 0.242
D 4220 32.25% 32.11 70.76% 0.086 0.8852 -0.06
E 4051 34.66% 33.71 71.37% 0.388 1.0168 0.455
F 3756 37.06% 33.24 69.94% -0.065 0.6547 0.26
G 3406 34.41% 33.01 71.55% 0.073 0.8148 0.251
H 3515 33.94% 32.84 72.18% 0.437 1.0853 0.447
East 694 29.45% 37.44 59.94% -0.536 0.0685 -0.703
Northeast 476 29.27% 37.68 55.46% 0.464 1.3454 0.26
Northwest 417 29.02% 37.19 54.2% -0.029 0.6443 -0.722
Southeast 388 26.77% 38.42 58.25% 0.059 0.6953 -0.197
Southwest 371 25.55% 36.43 57.68% -0.844 0.3205 -0.407
West 632 30.72% 35.4 56.8% -0.677 0.2868 -0.448

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 233 0.0% 17.7 57.94% -1.8 -0.9165 -0.692
Not Using Events or Tokens 349 22.19% 22.03 67.91% -0.207 0.1245 -0.549
Skip Initial Invader Actions 593 12.19% 46.81 79.93% 1.233 0.6979 1.694
Start of Game Growth 779 14.84% 43.24 76.12% -0.353 -0.6829 -0.782
Unlimited Undo 2279 29.65% 35.18 71.39% -0.059 -0.0813 0.62
Using Tokens but Not Events 1906 15.48% 26.11 76.08% 0.429 0.3752 0.35

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1324 100.0% 37.28 100.0% 0.382 0.2231 0.599
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 267 100.0% 28.09 100.0% -1.136 -1.0147 -0.389
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 321 100.0% 27.66 100.0% 0.049 -0.1186 -0.815
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 436 100.0% 28.34 100.0% 0.153 -0.5688 -0.32
Eyes Watch From the Trees 467 100.0% 31.3 100.0% 0.405 -0.1839 -0.005
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 387 100.0% 31.11 100.0% 0.503 0.0315 -0.082
Finder of Paths Unseen 954 100.0% 33.79 100.0% -0.51 0.1842 0.62
Fractured Days Split the Sky 343 100.0% 46.28 100.0% -0.027 0.6574 0.151
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 391 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.137 -0.2379 -0.164
Heart of the Wildfire 479 100.0% 28.58 100.0% -0.053 0.1908 -0.637
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1081 100.0% 36.41 100.0% 0.175 -0.2747 0.655
Lightning's Swift Strike 234 332.93% 29.05 206.84% 0.456 0.6594 0.504
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 394 41.78% 36.95 80.2% 0.752 0.0553 0.258
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 124 26.02% 34.35 73.39% -0.548 -0.7875 0.523
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 452 42.7% 51.74 69.25% 0.756 0.5966 0.715
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 740 100.0% 35.37 100.0% -0.291 -0.436 -0.346
Many Minds Move as One 329 100.0% 35.95 100.0% 0.339 0.1178 0.126
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 900 100.0% 37.44 100.0% 0.158 0.1486 0.1
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 321 100.0% 27.68 100.0% -0.614 -0.7555 -0.219
River Surges in Sunlight 376 264.95% 32.13 177.39% 0.141 0.1432 -0.585
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 264 21.84% 34.53 70.08% -0.312 -0.0425 0.848
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 766 42.4% 46.71 72.32% 0.193 0.0641 -0.093
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 727 100.0% 40.17 100.0% 0.054 -0.1592 -0.074
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 55 411.48% 25.58 260.0% 0.055 0.4913 -1.118
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 106 39.05% 30.87 81.13% 0.529 0.528 0.328
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 137 45.19% 33.0 69.34% -0.764 -0.7725 -0.008
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 54 41.51% 28.78 72.22% 0.047 -0.0251 -0.275
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 36 38.24% 23.75 69.44% 0.523 0.581 -1.13
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 345 114.2% 37.06 106.09% 0.293 0.1649 0.568
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 66 25.76% 35.95 68.18% 0.858 0.4947 0.566
Shifting Memory of Ages 438 100.0% 34.04 100.0% -0.517 -0.1094 -0.575
Shroud of Silent Mist 340 100.0% 28.37 100.0% -0.394 -0.0791 -0.154
Starlight Seeks its Form 1145 100.0% 43.05 100.0% -0.082 -0.3552 0.324
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 506 100.0% 33.36 100.0% 0.209 -0.2858 -0.151
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 284 100.0% 34.07 100.0% 0.089 0.1194 0.579
Thunderspeaker 361 110.25% 36.07 108.31% 0.15 0.1307 0.421
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 65 43.08% 24.2 53.85% -0.281 -0.3442 -0.523
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 312 100.0% 33.66 100.0% -0.453 -0.3917 0.178
Vital Strength of the Earth 120 348.0% 26.49 238.33% 0.122 0.6748 0.66
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 416 30.99% 36.69 64.42% -0.156 0.1 -0.118
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 51 48.98% 25.37 64.71% -0.512 0.385 -0.302
Volcano Looming High 571 100.0% 32.94 100.0% -0.277 -0.2669 -0.207

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Dark Skies Loose a Stinging Rain 87.44%
Foundations Sink Into Mud 92.19%
Gift of Abundance 90.43%
Unbearable Deluge 96.57%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3865 21.03 6.29%
II 5942 31.04 66.07%
III 6297 34.74 88.07%
IV 3850 38.02 99.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 243
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5495
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3804
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3830
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1503
Lose: Invader deck ran out 398
Lose: Adversary condition 2413
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 149
Win: Scenario condition 155
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1812
Lose: Spirit destroyed 119

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.418 Win Model: -0.13

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.226 Win Model: 0.296
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 10582 35.97% 29.88 64.39%
2 4969 37.69% 32.58 71.5%
3 2212 34.38% 34.27 75.5%
4 1359 33.91% 37.49 69.32%
5 145 21.83% 32.28 72.41%
6 687 24.7% 40.74 69.29%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)