Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 24 33.33% 27.67 91.67% -0.006 0.1022 0.0
Blitz 0 1950 30.12% 30.18 83.54% -0.568 -0.3007 -0.813
Dahan Insurrection 4 1033 33.59% 47.57 61.28% 0.16 0.4927 0.184
Despicable Theft 2 130 43.08% 33.48 73.85% -0.227 0.0232 -0.22
Elemental Invocation 1 282 53.55% 31.96 71.28% -0.066 0.5826 -0.845
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4718 13.6% 44.43 78.23% -0.25 -0.0835 0.72
Powers Long Forgotten 1 520 62.62% 32.5 65.0% -0.112 0.2139 -0.713
Rituals of Terror 3 449 55.73% 38.18 64.37% 0.365 0.2549 -0.016
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 365 73.15% 37.22 60.0% 0.282 0.9392 -0.17
Second Wave 0 6816 31.64% 31.41 85.43% -0.261 0.2104 -0.143
The Great River 3 329 53.5% 31.76 70.52% -0.967 0.534 -1.042
Varied Terrains 2 21 42.86% 34.0 85.71% 0.096 0.6315 -0.226
Ward the Shores 2 664 44.14% 33.27 57.53% -0.807 0.3802 -1.396

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 61031 35.78% 31.71 81.33% 0.422 0.869 -0.094
1 Thematic 3360 37.56% 36.68 75.24% -0.002 0.6013 0.067
2 Archipelago 36 36.11% 31.92 80.56% 0.225 0.8912 -0.403
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 17561 42.88% 31.39 78.7% -0.004 0.3879 0.057
2 Coastline 2143 39.54% 30.97 80.96% 0.184 0.2721 0.137
2 Fragment 482 44.76% 28.35 79.46% 0.031 0.0971 0.416
2 Heart 251 40.91% 28.2 77.69% -0.411 -0.1385 -0.246
2 Opposite Shores 3537 35.52% 31.0 80.35% -0.102 0.3906 -0.642
2 Thematic 1664 47.83% 34.65 63.58% 0.109 0.5769 -1.039
2 Top to Top 388 38.01% 30.7 80.67% -0.296 -0.014 0.281
3 Archipelago 16 62.5% 34.69 87.5% 0.101 -0.2823 0.0
3 Coastline 96 53.68% 32.16 73.96% 0.026 -0.6128 -0.194
3 Other 440 33.72% 30.11 84.77% 0.607 -0.4822 -0.3
3 Round (Default) 9680 38.07% 33.58 79.88% 0.124 0.3921 -0.127
3 Sunrise 70 40.0% 42.77 81.43% 0.222 0.0023 0.728
3 Thematic 381 48.68% 35.5 65.62% 0.355 0.1317 0.369
4 Archipelago 29 46.43% 34.38 93.1% 0.779 -0.073 -0.364
4 Coastline 70 41.43% 30.29 75.71% -0.241 -0.2329 0.856
4 Leaf 38 48.65% 31.92 78.95% -0.403 -0.1622 -0.007
4 Other 312 34.11% 31.75 87.18% 0.525 0.0791 1.061
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 33.33% 28.67 66.67% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1252 35.18% 39.97 71.41% -1.196 -1.1 -0.444
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7464 30.76% 33.86 82.42% 0.323 0.1863 0.007
5 Archipelago 5 80.0% 28.0 60.0% 0.162 -0.2549 0.0
5 Coastline 8 12.5% 38.13 100.0% 0.411 -0.1011 0.0
5 Other 232 29.86% 33.67 90.09% 0.528 0.7973 0.418
5 Thematic 29 55.17% 30.48 72.41% 0.217 0.1103 0.739
6 Archipelago 15 0.0% 31.53 100.0% 0.11 -0.4049 0.0
6 Coastline 12 33.33% 31.42 100.0% 0.103 -0.3371 0.0
6 Other 128 20.63% 25.31 90.63% -0.474 0.4139 0.388
6 Star 64 26.56% 30.02 73.44% 0.1 0.9942 -1.212
6 Thematic 157 31.21% 31.9 86.62% -0.939 -0.5761 -0.084
6 Two Centers (Default) 350 21.53% 30.32 90.57% -0.688 -0.3101 -0.521
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 39.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.8404 -0.261
7 Other 4 0.0% 51.75 100.0% 0.128 -0.8083 0.383

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3147 31.01 57.2% -1.932 -0.101 -0.43
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2781 32.91 58.76% -1.397 0.2571 -0.168
All Things Weaken 1762 29.58 51.19% -1.685 0.2918 -0.925
Back Against the Wall 2699 32.06 56.39% -2.082 -0.2235 -0.247
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3050 28.38 54.82% -1.789 0.1856 -0.624
Downward Spiral 5410 28.07 63.77% -1.459 0.4434 -0.362
Erosion of Will 3049 30.58 55.26% -2.178 -0.1341 -0.598
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 746 34.71 80.29% -0.738 -0.1657 -0.506
Memory Fades to Dust 5624 27.61 61.65% -1.417 0.563 -0.607
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1661 29.34 54.67% -2.02 -0.1281 -0.435
Promising Farmlands 2952 29.25 54.61% -2.117 -0.0778 -0.789
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 485 34.52 83.92% -0.25 0.1909 0.078
Thriving Communities 1647 29.4 56.41% -1.561 0.4036 -0.418
Tipping Point 1108 30.83 52.44% 0.0 0.489 -0.563
Unnatural Proliferation 1781 30.57 54.52% -1.763 0.1432 -0.841
Untended Land Crumbles 1684 29.45 56.35% -1.854 0.181 -0.638

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 24822 36.76% 31.66 80.8% -0.035 0.7335 0.885
B 26754 36.08% 32.27 80.91% 0.383 1.0754 0.713
C 26194 35.58% 33.08 81.52% 0.311 0.875 0.759
D 22796 36.49% 31.87 81.06% 0.446 1.2141 0.592
E 11811 39.84% 32.3 79.84% 0.337 0.9362 0.758
F 21930 36.81% 32.13 81.36% 0.17 0.8794 0.909
G 21797 36.36% 32.45 80.64% 0.093 0.8185 0.655
H 21453 36.96% 31.7 80.67% 0.082 0.7719 0.685
East 4820 40.17% 37.89 71.29% -0.322 0.3006 0.369
Northeast 3209 38.83% 38.44 70.83% -0.137 0.5444 0.46
Northwest 2528 38.36% 38.13 70.21% -0.737 0.3301 0.039
Southeast 945 40.23% 34.95 75.45% -0.449 0.2789 0.616
Southwest 893 40.94% 32.58 73.57% 0.554 1.5244 0.01
West 4194 41.19% 36.62 69.24% -0.213 0.79 0.023

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4625 0.0% 22.09 84.76% -2.203 -0.1919 -0.321
Not Using Events or Tokens 13358 30.64% 25.99 86.17% 0.053 0.2671 -0.322
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4049 9.76% 38.26 95.73% -0.014 -0.1071 0.584
Start of Game Growth 5624 12.9% 38.07 93.51% 0.931 0.2231 0.406
Unlimited Undo 11662 26.94% 34.44 89.07% 0.818 0.1186 0.961
Using Tokens but Not Events 15144 22.14% 30.45 89.13% 0.58 0.5344 -0.139

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5333 100.0% 33.47 100.0% 0.582 0.4473 -0.002
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2013 100.0% 30.11 100.0% -0.219 -0.1734 -0.423
Downpour Drenches the World 136 100.0% 28.91 100.0% -0.862 -0.5134 -1.125
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7295 100.0% 32.4 100.0% 0.142 -0.2792 0.016
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5922 100.0% 31.98 100.0% 0.268 -0.294 -0.414
Finder of Paths Unseen 83 100.0% 33.16 100.0% -0.053 0.3479 0.563
Fractured Days Split the Sky 550 100.0% 32.75 100.0% 0.26 0.3146 0.102
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 439 100.0% 33.72 100.0% 0.389 0.3801 0.72
Heart of the Wildfire 2786 100.0% 31.84 100.0% -0.137 0.0898 -0.054
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4974 100.0% 36.36 100.0% 0.81 0.2869 0.399
Lightning's Swift Strike 4450 117.74% 32.97 104.81% -0.249 -0.0058 0.132
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 53 37.74% 35.04 86.79% 0.92 0.0658 0.697
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 354 38.29% 36.05 83.05% 0.272 -0.3376 0.944
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 862 35.77% 37.42 82.95% 0.692 0.3141 0.643
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1647 100.0% 33.76 100.0% -0.35 -0.5678 -0.177
Many Minds Move as One 1207 100.0% 33.78 100.0% -0.855 -1.3943 -0.256
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3481 100.0% 34.19 100.0% -0.076 -0.3924 0.2
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6703 100.0% 31.91 100.0% 0.231 0.2154 -0.188
River Surges in Sunlight 4130 109.82% 33.11 103.58% -0.226 -0.174 0.293
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 657 38.44% 31.07 79.3% 0.02 0.3776 -0.091
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 58 43.86% 38.17 79.31% -0.042 -0.2725 -0.555
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3699 100.0% 36.66 100.0% -0.072 -0.1058 0.226
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1588 122.57% 28.25 108.56% -0.13 0.3367 -0.493
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 19 47.37% 40.21 94.74% 0.843 0.9405 0.015
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 16 53.33% 34.25 81.25% -0.488 -0.6636 0.33
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 343 39.7% 31.03 80.76% -0.226 -0.2856 0.197
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 320 46.81% 29.37 79.38% -0.597 -0.4369 0.178
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3229 100.0% 36.53 100.0% 0.18 -0.1219 0.459
Shifting Memory of Ages 488 100.0% 30.7 100.0% 0.328 0.3673 0.12
Shroud of Silent Mist 630 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.196 0.1283 -0.056
Starlight Seeks its Form 461 100.0% 34.18 100.0% 0.459 0.2545 0.06
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2113 100.0% 32.82 100.0% -0.386 -0.5722 -0.454
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4647 100.0% 33.3 100.0% -0.209 -0.1248 0.448
Thunderspeaker 2882 100.0% 34.11 100.0% -0.163 -0.1941 0.446
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1462 100.0% 31.49 100.0% 0.554 0.5104 -0.12
Vital Strength of the Earth 2926 108.44% 28.25 104.48% -0.034 0.7609 -0.258
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 55 52.73% 30.0 74.55% -0.032 0.4203 -1.103
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 388 41.11% 28.89 69.85% -0.106 0.9248 -0.988
Volcano Looming High 930 100.0% 32.64 100.0% -1.111 -1.085 -0.212

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Ferocious Rampage 97.38%
Gift of Furious Might 93.79%
Herd Towards the Lurking Maw 83.12%
Mark Territory With Scars and Teeth 96.25%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8726 22.6 20.79%
II 40503 31.02 72.96%
III 47429 34.59 91.63%
IV 14667 37.83 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1813
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 42847
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29058
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14488
Lose: Invader deck ran out 679
Lose: Adversary condition 7410
Win: Sacrifice victory 151
Lose: Scenario condition 984
Win: Scenario condition 1015
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12335
Lose: Spirit destroyed 545

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.179 Win Model: -0.316

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.012 Win Model: 0.212
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 64459 35.91% 31.97 81.0%
2 26102 41.88% 31.42 78.19%
3 10667 38.37% 33.58 79.64%
4 9212 31.61% 34.6 81.1%
5 168 29.19% 32.3 89.88%
6 717 23.33% 29.6 88.56%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)