Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1284 30.91% 31.02 0.007 84.27% -0.242 0.3303
Dahan Insurrection 4 744 35.98% 46.56 -0.105 57.93% -1.521 -1.1207
Elemental Invocation 1 55 54.55% 32.04 -0.075 61.82% -0.776 -0.3106
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3455 13.17% 44.55 -0.006 77.97% -0.329 0.0463
Powers Long Forgotten 1 394 61.07% 32.89 -0.065 64.72% -0.848 -0.4009
Rituals of Terror 3 343 55.76% 38.8 -0.074 63.85% -0.969 -0.3469
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 282 70.92% 37.61 -0.079 58.87% -0.754 -0.1301
Second Wave 0 4470 33.84% 32.18 0.004 84.56% -0.517 -0.098
The Great River 3 105 45.71% 34.66 -0.008 81.9% -0.908 0.5773
Ward the Shores 2 500 43.64% 34.23 -0.109 57.2% -1.518 -0.487

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 38638 35.34% 32.27 0.008 81.75% -0.267 0.0873
1 Thematic 2364 36.53% 38.01 -0.015 75.38% -0.678 -0.1805
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11494 42.42% 31.83 -0.008 78.08% -0.245 -0.0557
2 Coastline 1308 38.64% 31.4 0.002 81.35% -0.238 -0.103
2 Fragment 301 42.46% 27.94 -0.009 78.74% -0.401 0.0244
2 Heart 162 37.42% 27.8 -0.005 80.25% -0.399 -0.1084
2 Opposite Shores 2274 35.61% 31.54 -0.005 79.68% -0.295 -0.0682
2 Thematic 1195 47.14% 35.38 -0.062 62.68% -0.884 -0.8393
2 Top to Top 228 40.28% 28.56 -0.017 77.63% -0.546 -0.4296
3 Coastline 41 45.0% 37.32 0.004 80.49% 0.103 0.0648
3 Other 270 35.82% 31.39 0.016 84.81% 0.012 0.4139
3 Round (Default) 6272 38.33% 34.05 0.003 78.97% 0.149 0.1804
3 Sunrise 55 36.36% 43.0 0.017 78.18% 0.325 0.0724
3 Thematic 263 47.33% 35.95 -0.06 61.98% -0.675 -1.014
4 Coastline 28 50.0% 33.07 0.033 85.71% 0.434 0.5568
4 Leaf 24 43.48% 35.08 0.052 87.5% 1.05 1.1295
4 Other 198 36.27% 33.16 0.025 85.86% 0.392 0.4729
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 37.5 0.084 100.0% 0.369 -0.4234
4 Snake 2 50.0% 31.5 -0.104 50.0% -0.118 0.0076
4 Thematic 978 34.22% 40.59 -0.016 70.14% -0.03 -1.1083
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4941 30.58% 34.04 0.011 81.68% 0.244 0.211
5 Other 52 34.0% 36.79 0.069 94.23% 1.128 0.9105
5 Thematic 6 66.67% 39.67 0.062 83.33% 0.623 -2.144

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2045 31.78 -0.107 58.68% -1.74 0.3282
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1860 33.21 -0.103 58.76% -1.662 0.2545
All Things Weaken 913 29.29 -0.147 49.18% -2.08 0.0803
Back Against the Wall 1789 32.24 -0.119 55.84% -1.839 0.2531
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2064 28.93 -0.127 54.41% -1.923 0.2979
Downward Spiral 3624 28.7 -0.095 63.69% -1.705 0.3097
Erosion of Will 2015 31.14 -0.121 55.53% -1.861 0.35
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 369 35.5 -0.0 81.57% -0.496 0.2154
Memory Fades to Dust 3755 27.94 -0.109 60.99% -1.869 0.3469
Power Corrodes the Spirit 789 29.96 -0.11 57.41% -1.786 0.2342
Promising Farmlands 1962 29.55 -0.126 55.05% -1.945 0.2699
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 252 34.62 0.008 84.52% -0.461 -0.0435
Thriving Communities 863 29.19 -0.113 57.24% -1.863 0.244
Tipping Point 1106 30.83 -0.136 52.44% -1.931 0.2855
Unnatural Proliferation 863 30.03 -0.133 52.84% -2.019 0.0612
Untended Land Crumbles 824 29.7 -0.114 56.55% -1.824 0.2713

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 9653 36.76% 31.47 0.001 80.57% 0.059 -1.014
B 9849 36.02% 32.19 0.002 80.86% 0.062 -1.1025
C 10564 35.41% 33.97 0.01 81.97% 0.243 -1.154
D 8439 36.62% 31.77 0.004 81.14% 0.099 -1.0591
E 3264 41.43% 32.81 -0.002 78.06% 0.14 -1.1171
F 8308 36.91% 32.19 0.003 81.13% 0.093 -1.1328
G 8389 35.77% 33.16 -0.001 80.33% 0.047 -1.1654
H 8037 37.68% 31.69 -0.001 80.09% 0.04 -1.1817
East 927 42.45% 39.02 -0.036 68.82% -0.166 -1.1019
Northeast 1233 38.01% 39.53 -0.023 70.72% 0.025 -0.8445
Northwest 1052 34.2% 38.75 -0.029 70.53% -0.182 -1.1274
Southeast 254 39.76% 36.92 -0.02 72.83% 0.006 -0.9771
Southwest 252 42.63% 32.42 -0.02 73.41% -0.126 -0.7511
West 875 43.48% 37.26 -0.042 67.66% -0.287 -0.9525

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2977 0.0% 22.55 -0.025 85.93% -1.478 0.5606
Not Using Events or Tokens 8035 30.5% 25.8 0.014 86.11% -0.084 0.1362
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2685 9.21% 39.6 0.045 95.68% 1.018 0.312
Start of Game Growth 3662 11.61% 39.55 0.041 93.45% 0.732 0.2733
Unlimited Undo 7374 28.34% 35.33 0.024 87.77% 0.344 -0.0583
Using Tokens but Not Events 9644 23.49% 31.14 0.028 88.68% 0.139 0.0929

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3478 31.55% 34.06 0.008 80.97% 0.087 0.2332
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1395 50.26% 30.82 -0.033 70.82% -0.389 -0.1527
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4580 28.78% 32.72 0.02 84.89% 0.244 -0.1255
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3984 31.31% 32.59 0.01 82.38% 0.122 -0.1111
Fractured Days Split the Sky 251 46.0% 33.49 0.003 78.49% 0.058 0.3921
Heart of the Wildfire 1990 53.21% 32.83 -0.02 72.26% -0.049 0.2987
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3426 34.67% 36.76 0.008 79.66% 0.174 -0.1235
Lightning's Swift Strike 3575 34.7% 34.9 0.008 80.25% 0.232 0.5002
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 490 41.36% 33.88 0.002 77.76% 0.129 -0.2322
Many Minds Move as One 584 40.96% 32.83 0.003 78.77% -0.006 -0.5197
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2397 37.93% 34.68 -0.001 77.76% 0.077 -0.1197
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4527 39.13% 32.69 -0.011 76.54% -0.088 -0.0403
River Surges in Sunlight 2997 35.23% 33.69 -0.001 79.98% -0.06 0.1075
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2441 38.0% 37.13 -0.002 76.16% 0.152 0.3015
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1503 46.14% 29.47 -0.027 73.85% -0.408 0.0415
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2271 34.02% 37.3 0.005 79.04% 0.138 0.0736
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1333 44.65% 32.61 -0.014 73.22% -0.103 -0.1219
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3043 29.83% 34.67 0.016 83.54% 0.227 0.4425
Thunderspeaker 1931 40.39% 34.62 -0.009 75.71% -0.021 0.0388
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 923 61.83% 30.97 -0.033 67.71% -0.148 -0.112
Vital Strength of the Earth 2112 34.79% 29.16 -0.016 77.84% -0.459 0.406
Volcano Looming High 142 42.96% 31.42 -0.012 75.35% -0.109 -0.2103

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Ferocious Rampage 97.46%
Gift of Furious Might 93.64%
Herd Towards the Lurking Maw 83.05%
Mark Territory With Scars and Teeth 96.23%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5827 22.34 21.07%
II 25713 30.71 72.9%
III 30338 34.23 91.71%
IV 9218 37.48 99.02%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1227
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27375
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18424
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9093
Lose: Invader deck ran out 445
Lose: Adversary condition 4888
Win: Sacrifice victory 89
Lose: Scenario condition 710
Win: Scenario condition 717
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7735
Lose: Spirit destroyed 393

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.304 Win Model: -0.281

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.0 Win Model: -0.148
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 41011 35.41% 32.6 81.38%
2 16985 41.5% 31.87 77.5%
3 6912 38.66% 34.13 78.53%
4 6188 31.37% 35.04 80.12%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.018 Win Model: -0.828
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 67358 33.37 79.94%
Power Progression 3738 22.26 82.32%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)