Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 31 29.03% 29.45 93.55% 0.181 0.1421 0.0
Blitz 0 2059 30.15% 30.27 83.83% -0.084 0.475 -0.807
Dahan Insurrection 4 1064 33.08% 47.62 61.84% -0.73 -0.6461 0.16
Despicable Theft 2 140 42.14% 33.46 74.29% 0.181 0.7487 -0.209
Elemental Invocation 1 315 53.65% 32.34 71.75% -0.203 0.3758 -0.91
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4938 13.7% 44.52 77.99% 0.024 0.214 0.706
Powers Long Forgotten 1 537 62.87% 32.32 64.62% -1.261 -0.7459 -0.732
Rituals of Terror 3 458 54.83% 38.44 65.07% 0.125 -0.1194 -0.023
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 373 72.92% 37.33 60.59% 0.641 0.8976 -0.229
Second Wave 0 7160 31.57% 31.47 85.41% -0.357 0.1998 -0.081
The Great River 3 350 54.0% 32.01 70.57% -1.022 0.7076 -1.132
Varied Terrains 2 40 52.5% 34.33 77.5% -0.861 -0.1533 -0.908
Ward the Shores 2 689 44.35% 33.2 57.91% -1.007 -0.2012 -1.397

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 64079 35.73% 31.71 81.4% 0.277 0.9053 -0.019
1 Thematic 3568 36.99% 36.87 75.28% 0.104 1.1724 0.142
2 Archipelago 40 32.5% 32.58 82.5% 0.059 1.2088 -0.391
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 18420 42.82% 31.36 78.76% -0.169 0.3183 0.092
2 Coastline 2280 38.95% 31.18 81.27% -0.021 0.1033 0.233
2 Fragment 504 45.19% 28.25 79.37% 1.07 1.292 0.552
2 Heart 275 41.89% 28.98 78.55% 0.743 1.2237 0.19
2 Opposite Shores 3667 35.79% 30.98 80.01% -0.673 -0.1873 -0.582
2 Thematic 1714 47.86% 34.67 63.65% -0.481 0.4049 -0.912
2 Top to Top 418 37.0% 31.01 81.1% 0.279 0.4677 0.466
3 Archipelago 19 57.89% 32.47 84.21% 0.126 0.1721 0.0
3 Coastline 100 53.54% 32.03 74.0% -0.431 -0.4991 -0.18
3 Other 458 33.92% 30.01 84.93% 0.608 -0.2117 -0.311
3 Round (Default) 10146 38.04% 33.57 80.0% 0.115 0.3485 -0.101
3 Sunrise 71 39.44% 42.45 81.69% 0.028 -0.1965 0.731
3 Thematic 394 47.84% 35.63 66.24% -0.016 0.4562 0.537
4 Archipelago 38 37.84% 33.29 89.47% -1.073 -0.8936 -0.379
4 Coastline 74 43.24% 30.0 74.32% -0.19 -0.7494 0.847
4 Leaf 41 50.0% 31.24 78.05% 0.055 0.1811 -0.021
4 Other 320 34.19% 31.68 87.5% 0.172 -0.3993 1.034
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 33.33% 28.67 66.67% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1284 35.16% 39.9 71.42% -0.356 -0.1579 -0.415
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7708 30.75% 33.86 82.58% -0.257 -0.0022 -0.048
5 Archipelago 5 80.0% 28.0 60.0% 0.0 -0.2003 0.0
5 Coastline 13 7.69% 39.23 100.0% 0.182 -0.487 0.0
5 Other 258 28.4% 33.54 89.53% 0.189 -0.5543 0.068
5 Thematic 31 51.61% 30.74 74.19% 0.008 -0.6102 0.727
6 Archipelago 22 0.0% 32.77 100.0% 0.042 0.3398 0.0
6 Coastline 23 33.33% 29.52 100.0% 0.075 -0.6538 0.0
6 Other 150 18.37% 25.29 91.33% 0.11 -0.2051 0.201
6 Star 85 22.35% 29.05 75.29% -1.122 -0.1207 -1.481
6 Thematic 189 32.28% 32.32 85.19% 0.403 0.4789 -0.699
6 Two Centers (Default) 447 21.04% 30.25 91.72% 0.275 0.526 -0.383
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 39.67 66.67% 0.0 0.1121 -0.26
7 Other 8 0.0% 42.75 100.0% 0.077 -0.1547 0.328

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3285 31.0 57.26% -1.683 0.2917 -0.421
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2899 32.91 58.88% -1.404 0.3377 -0.163
All Things Weaken 1891 29.69 51.35% -1.829 0.2395 -0.906
Back Against the Wall 2816 32.07 56.5% -1.598 0.3199 -0.229
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3168 28.5 55.08% -1.329 0.7528 -0.622
Downward Spiral 5635 28.04 63.62% -1.903 -0.0233 -0.384
Erosion of Will 3180 30.71 55.57% -1.498 0.5893 -0.579
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 799 34.7 80.48% -0.184 0.3333 -0.37
Memory Fades to Dust 5855 27.58 61.52% -1.883 0.1955 -0.591
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1773 29.44 54.99% -1.811 0.0891 -0.411
Promising Farmlands 3088 29.28 54.76% -1.427 0.6065 -0.76
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 516 34.62 83.72% -0.716 -0.2503 0.243
Thriving Communities 1750 29.62 56.69% -1.522 0.525 -0.391
Tipping Point 1108 30.83 52.44% 0.0 0.0 -0.56
Unnatural Proliferation 1896 30.73 54.69% -1.516 0.4134 -0.832
Untended Land Crumbles 1802 29.52 56.77% -1.338 0.6614 -0.583

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26072 36.66% 31.64 80.95% 0.22 0.966 0.947
B 28048 36.09% 32.26 80.96% -0.162 0.5335 0.727
C 27493 35.51% 33.04 81.63% 0.216 0.7021 0.774
D 23915 36.51% 31.82 81.2% 0.216 0.9284 0.616
E 12749 39.4% 32.24 80.02% 0.157 0.7182 0.758
F 23064 36.56% 32.13 81.48% -0.045 0.6245 0.942
G 22818 36.17% 32.44 80.78% 0.05 0.6515 0.681
H 22514 36.7% 31.69 80.91% 0.123 0.7868 0.691
East 5055 39.87% 37.93 71.59% 0.516 1.1193 0.368
Northeast 3375 38.38% 38.45 71.23% -0.22 0.4467 0.427
Northwest 2670 38.13% 38.09 70.07% -0.395 0.1314 -0.069
Southeast 1015 39.82% 35.06 75.57% -0.046 0.6872 0.596
Southwest 955 40.59% 32.66 73.93% 0.263 1.1568 -0.029
West 4405 40.81% 36.63 69.28% -0.456 0.3132 -0.063

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4847 0.0% 22.16 84.69% -1.635 0.5404 -0.492
Not Using Events or Tokens 14021 30.42% 26.06 86.25% 0.151 0.3864 -0.259
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4218 9.78% 38.19 95.76% 1.06 -0.1234 0.635
Start of Game Growth 5878 13.02% 38.0 93.59% 0.72 0.2885 0.507
Unlimited Undo 12206 27.3% 34.46 88.98% 0.376 -0.1057 1.006
Using Tokens but Not Events 16078 21.89% 30.46 89.26% 0.441 0.5917 -0.152

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 5600 100.0% 33.42 100.0% 0.229 0.1318 -0.024
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2102 100.0% 30.11 100.0% -1.104 -1.0242 -0.471
Downpour Drenches the World 235 100.0% 30.1 100.0% -0.816 -0.5009 -0.646
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7631 100.0% 32.36 100.0% 0.117 -0.3923 -0.005
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 6162 100.0% 31.91 100.0% 0.181 -0.3544 -0.472
Finder of Paths Unseen 129 100.0% 33.16 100.0% 0.134 0.4575 0.389
Fractured Days Split the Sky 587 100.0% 33.07 100.0% 0.197 0.1407 0.062
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 521 100.0% 33.71 100.0% -0.237 -0.3327 0.601
Heart of the Wildfire 2889 100.0% 31.82 100.0% -0.679 -0.3614 -0.095
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5158 100.0% 36.32 100.0% 0.44 -0.1012 0.373
Lightning's Swift Strike 4608 119.33% 32.87 104.93% 0.093 0.4605 0.093
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 106 33.96% 37.28 92.45% 1.535 0.7478 1.056
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 391 37.73% 36.21 83.63% 1.221 0.7034 0.786
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 916 35.04% 37.62 83.08% -0.077 -0.6098 0.561
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1815 100.0% 33.54 100.0% -0.077 -0.1708 -0.226
Many Minds Move as One 1288 100.0% 33.79 100.0% 0.167 -0.4703 -0.292
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3610 100.0% 34.07 100.0% -0.15 -0.3013 0.158
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 7051 100.0% 31.9 100.0% 0.158 0.1439 -0.23
River Surges in Sunlight 4290 110.51% 32.95 103.73% -0.343 -0.4658 0.217
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 700 38.65% 31.09 79.29% -0.13 0.249 -0.094
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 92 38.46% 39.45 83.7% 0.565 0.1931 0.023
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 3834 100.0% 36.58 100.0% 0.56 0.4232 0.187
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1625 124.64% 28.18 109.11% -0.354 0.1019 -0.516
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 39 35.9% 33.85 89.74% 0.06 0.2035 -0.297
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 31 50.0% 33.87 83.87% -0.096 0.0643 0.555
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 360 39.77% 31.14 80.56% -0.355 -0.2966 0.194
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 335 46.13% 29.26 79.4% -0.289 -0.28 0.111
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3378 100.0% 36.43 100.0% -0.337 -0.539 0.386
Shifting Memory of Ages 564 100.0% 30.56 100.0% -0.444 -0.1966 0.083
Shroud of Silent Mist 695 100.0% 31.17 100.0% -0.128 0.0419 -0.152
Starlight Seeks its Form 559 100.0% 34.16 100.0% 0.157 0.0868 0.007
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2235 100.0% 32.73 100.0% -0.358 -0.6333 -0.534
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4881 100.0% 33.15 100.0% 0.054 0.1528 0.387
Thunderspeaker 3013 100.0% 34.05 100.0% -0.027 -0.029 0.41
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1537 100.0% 31.78 100.0% 0.485 0.181 -0.092
Vital Strength of the Earth 3059 109.41% 28.16 104.71% -0.229 0.6163 -0.319
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 101 49.5% 30.7 75.25% -0.353 0.191 -0.756
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 410 40.05% 29.09 70.98% 0.53 1.6988 -0.914
Volcano Looming High 1037 100.0% 32.81 100.0% -0.112 -0.1305 -0.2

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Ferocious Rampage 97.37%
Gift of Furious Might 93.78%
Herd Towards the Lurking Maw 83.16%
Mark Territory With Scars and Teeth 96.25%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9103 22.67 20.87%
II 42608 31.11 73.11%
III 49782 34.68 91.64%
IV 15395 37.94 99.2%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1899
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 44987
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30634
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15210
Lose: Invader deck ran out 707
Lose: Adversary condition 7756
Win: Sacrifice victory 157
Lose: Scenario condition 1030
Win: Scenario condition 1057
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12889
Lose: Spirit destroyed 562

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.248 Win Model: -0.328

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.008 Win Model: 0.3
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 67742 35.82% 31.98 81.06%
2 27356 41.83% 31.43 78.25%
3 11170 38.29% 33.56 79.78%
4 9513 31.6% 34.57 81.22%
5 196 27.03% 32.63 89.8%
6 911 22.37% 29.66 89.24%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)