Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1336 30.85% 30.84 0.005 83.91% -0.275 0.3015
Dahan Insurrection 4 778 36.34% 46.35 -0.106 57.84% -1.547 -1.1467
Despicable Theft 2 6 33.33% 37.83 0.009 83.33% -0.083 0.3457
Elemental Invocation 1 88 53.41% 32.86 -0.031 71.59% -0.388 -0.0073
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3577 13.12% 44.49 -0.006 78.0% -0.344 0.0219
Powers Long Forgotten 1 407 61.58% 32.88 -0.064 64.86% -0.823 -0.3818
Rituals of Terror 3 354 55.43% 38.64 -0.076 63.56% -0.998 -0.3701
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 292 71.58% 37.32 -0.08 58.9% -0.785 -0.1351
Second Wave 0 4684 33.36% 32.13 0.004 84.74% -0.52 -0.1041
The Great River 3 138 49.28% 34.38 -0.02 78.99% -0.983 0.4882
Ward the Shores 2 522 44.49% 34.03 -0.113 56.51% -1.542 -0.505

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 40790 35.3% 32.2 0.008 81.77% -0.321 0.0379
1 Thematic 2484 36.68% 37.79 -0.015 75.48% -0.779 -0.2756
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12008 42.35% 31.77 -0.008 78.17% -0.245 -0.0488
2 Coastline 1384 39.12% 31.43 0.002 81.29% -0.235 -0.0926
2 Fragment 323 43.65% 27.71 -0.008 78.95% -0.399 0.023
2 Heart 164 37.58% 27.93 -0.004 80.49% -0.377 -0.0847
2 Opposite Shores 2369 35.57% 31.43 -0.005 79.78% -0.317 -0.0922
2 Thematic 1229 47.3% 35.35 -0.062 62.82% -0.937 -0.8921
2 Top to Top 235 40.36% 28.48 -0.016 77.87% -0.537 -0.4024
3 Coastline 45 45.45% 36.0 -0.007 77.78% -0.012 -0.0458
3 Other 291 35.64% 31.33 0.009 83.51% -0.099 0.3165
3 Round (Default) 6558 38.06% 33.99 0.004 79.29% 0.2 0.2386
3 Sunrise 56 37.5% 42.55 0.011 76.79% 0.292 0.0686
3 Thematic 272 47.97% 36.12 -0.055 62.87% -0.625 -0.9815
4 Coastline 34 44.12% 34.71 0.027 85.29% 0.383 0.5415
4 Leaf 24 43.48% 35.08 0.051 87.5% 1.119 1.1468
4 Other 208 34.98% 33.31 0.028 86.54% 0.527 0.6403
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 37.5 0.084 100.0% 0.377 -0.4115
4 Snake 2 50.0% 31.5 -0.104 50.0% -0.102 0.0219
4 Thematic 1004 34.23% 40.41 -0.016 70.22% -0.012 -1.0985
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5191 30.4% 33.93 0.011 81.62% 0.306 0.2893
5 Other 55 32.08% 36.42 0.069 94.55% 1.209 0.9908
5 Thematic 6 66.67% 39.67 0.062 83.33% 0.637 -2.1911

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2131 31.59 -0.109 58.47% -1.762 0.3081
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1948 33.14 -0.103 58.93% -1.675 0.2434
All Things Weaken 972 29.27 -0.146 49.49% -2.082 0.0724
Back Against the Wall 1872 32.19 -0.119 55.93% -1.84 0.2557
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2149 28.75 -0.129 54.07% -1.937 0.2865
Downward Spiral 3806 28.75 -0.093 63.98% -1.705 0.312
Erosion of Will 2109 31.07 -0.122 55.38% -1.862 0.3476
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 396 35.42 -0.0 81.57% -0.511 0.1935
Memory Fades to Dust 3925 28.01 -0.108 61.38% -1.867 0.3483
Power Corrodes the Spirit 863 29.81 -0.113 57.01% -1.823 0.1966
Promising Farmlands 2046 29.39 -0.128 54.79% -1.959 0.2534
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 270 34.33 0.009 84.81% -0.446 -0.0107
Thriving Communities 919 29.38 -0.113 57.34% -1.855 0.243
Tipping Point 1106 30.83 -0.136 52.44% -1.932 0.2861
Unnatural Proliferation 924 30.08 -0.132 52.92% -2.021 0.0567
Untended Land Crumbles 894 29.87 -0.113 56.94% -1.819 0.2801

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 10145 36.59% 31.39 0.002 80.73% 0.043 -1.0465
B 10288 35.91% 32.1 0.002 80.98% 0.038 -1.1473
C 11095 35.49% 33.9 0.009 81.95% 0.218 -1.1964
D 8842 36.56% 31.69 0.003 81.03% 0.065 -1.1119
E 3572 41.26% 32.74 -0.003 78.11% 0.112 -1.1646
F 8754 36.74% 32.17 0.003 81.24% 0.079 -1.1636
G 8810 35.71% 33.06 -0.001 80.43% 0.025 -1.2057
H 8477 37.53% 31.63 -0.001 80.19% 0.018 -1.2223
East 949 42.56% 39.04 -0.036 69.02% -0.124 -1.0745
Northeast 1284 38.44% 39.43 -0.023 70.79% 0.06 -0.83
Northwest 1080 34.05% 38.8 -0.027 71.02% -0.126 -1.0909
Southeast 263 40.68% 36.6 -0.022 72.24% 0.033 -0.9688
Southwest 267 42.86% 32.39 -0.024 72.66% -0.144 -0.7522
West 908 43.56% 37.09 -0.04 67.95% -0.246 -0.9315

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3130 0.0% 22.33 -0.028 85.21% -1.542 0.5016
Not Using Events or Tokens 8701 30.41% 26.04 0.014 86.09% -0.073 0.1461
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2835 9.33% 39.54 0.045 95.59% 0.98 0.2756
Start of Game Growth 3840 11.6% 39.5 0.041 93.52% 0.78 0.3253
Unlimited Undo 7780 28.14% 35.26 0.024 87.87% 0.351 -0.0613
Using Tokens but Not Events 10034 23.29% 31.1 0.028 88.82% 0.156 0.1086

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3634 31.38% 33.88 0.006 80.82% 0.013 0.1589
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1442 50.32% 30.62 -0.034 70.8% -0.46 -0.2235
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4789 28.41% 32.61 0.019 84.97% 0.179 -0.1858
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4166 30.89% 32.46 0.01 82.48% 0.062 -0.1825
Fractured Days Split the Sky 287 45.45% 33.25 -0.005 76.66% -0.077 0.2689
Heart of the Wildfire 2047 52.88% 32.76 -0.02 72.4% -0.109 0.2413
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3565 34.71% 36.75 0.008 79.72% 0.132 -0.1679
Lightning's Swift Strike 3753 34.29% 34.83 0.009 80.71% 0.199 0.4678
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 586 42.69% 33.73 -0.002 76.79% 0.007 -0.3127
Many Minds Move as One 610 41.02% 32.78 0.003 79.02% -0.05 -0.5699
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2474 37.83% 34.58 -0.0 77.97% 0.043 -0.1516
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4699 39.35% 32.55 -0.012 76.38% -0.159 -0.1099
River Surges in Sunlight 3127 35.25% 33.66 -0.001 80.04% -0.11 0.0523
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2539 37.44% 37.07 -0.001 76.6% 0.115 0.2649
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1574 46.04% 29.41 -0.027 74.02% -0.457 -0.0071
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2364 33.7% 37.26 0.006 79.23% 0.098 0.0303
Shroud of Silent Mist 28 64.29% 37.32 0.058 85.71% 1.041 0.9971
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1386 44.67% 32.46 -0.014 73.38% -0.139 -0.1586
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3166 29.74% 34.59 0.017 83.67% 0.182 0.3982
Thunderspeaker 1996 40.32% 34.62 -0.008 75.95% -0.055 0.003
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 971 61.35% 31.05 -0.032 68.07% -0.188 -0.1681
Vital Strength of the Earth 2210 34.45% 29.06 -0.016 78.1% -0.493 0.3774
Volcano Looming High 232 42.42% 32.6 -0.002 78.02% 0.029 -0.0329

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Ferocious Rampage 97.47%
Gift of Furious Might 93.7%
Herd Towards the Lurking Maw 83.17%
Mark Territory With Scars and Teeth 96.23%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6082 22.34 21.13%
II 27048 30.75 73.0%
III 31931 34.26 91.72%
IV 9673 37.47 99.02%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1284
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28819
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19411
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9542
Lose: Invader deck ran out 463
Lose: Adversary condition 5096
Win: Sacrifice victory 95
Lose: Scenario condition 740
Win: Scenario condition 745
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8136
Lose: Spirit destroyed 403

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.3 Win Model: -0.281

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.0 Win Model: -0.144
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 43283 35.38% 32.52 81.41%
2 17738 41.51% 31.81 77.62%
3 7232 38.46% 34.05 78.79%
4 6481 31.14% 34.91 80.14%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.019 Win Model: -0.844
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 70799 33.3 80.05%
Power Progression 3935 22.05 81.88%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)