Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 152 32.24% 26.13 -3.095 53.29% -0.84 -0.4429
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 97 42.27% 26.66 -2.4 49.48% -0.593 -0.305
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 63 55.56% 27.81 -3.987 38.1% -0.98 -0.1234
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 19 57.89% 31.16 -6.828 42.11% -0.213 0.7874
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 29 65.52% 26.79 9.895 24.14% -0.083 1.3707
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 72.73% 27.45 -7.71 18.18% -0.217 1.3358
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 30 86.67% 33.53 -10.092 16.67% -0.421 1.6243
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 202 30.69% 26.99 1.372 63.86% 0.237 0.5019
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 188 37.23% 29.04 -0.374 61.7% -0.109 -0.0322
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 103 52.43% 37.23 1.268 64.08% -0.134 0.0281
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 108 57.41% 39.84 8.923 52.78% 0.34 0.5333
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 42 54.76% 39.29 0.0 47.62%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 9 44.44% 40.78 0.0 44.44%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 31 61.29% 36.48 0.0 25.81%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 184 31.52% 24.77 -4.017 55.98% -1.026 -0.6509
The Kingdom of England 1 3 129 41.09% 27.7 -4.245 46.51% -0.896 -0.5498
The Kingdom of England 2 4 62 56.45% 22.87 -8.142 32.26% -0.588 0.139
The Kingdom of England 3 6 48 52.08% 24.83 -7.304 25.0% -0.536 0.6215
The Kingdom of England 4 7 29 48.28% 23.34 -4.163 27.59% -0.733 0.4997
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19 84.21% 30.84 -7.725 21.05% -0.416 1.2397
The Kingdom of England 6 11 53 55.77% 36.53 0.0 26.42%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 127 40.16% 25.72 1.383 50.39% 0.139 0.6158
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 106 41.51% 25.93 -1.617 44.34% -0.288 0.3927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 132 53.79% 30.98 -7.046 33.33% -0.213 0.7611
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 41 46.34% 36.71 -5.206 39.02% -0.243 1.0643
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 27 33.33% 26.67 -10.107 18.52% -0.604 0.8221
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 17 47.06% 34.53 -7.079 35.29% -0.468 0.4394
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 43 67.44% 47.42 11.744 32.56% -0.088 1.3684
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 86 18.6% 15.27 -1.904 32.56% -0.37 -0.0691
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 69 43.48% 21.78 0.727 31.88% -0.058 0.4458
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 47 46.81% 21.7 -2.111 17.02% -0.604 0.0002
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 20 30.0% 35.15 16.892 45.0% 0.673 1.1151
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 19 36.84% 18.37 -5.399 15.79% -0.264 0.4744
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 28 71.43% 22.5 5.488 14.29% -0.203 0.3696
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 59.09% 35.68 3.003 36.36% -0.542 0.5356
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 153 27.45% 20.78 -3.889 50.33% -0.708 -0.4673
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 136 41.91% 25.71 -3.324 52.21% -0.77 -0.6978
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 145 47.59% 27.46 -1.243 52.41% -0.72 -0.5295
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 77 58.44% 36.27 2.093 51.95% 0.093 0.4618
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 27 55.56% 36.44 -5.123 48.15% -0.281 0.3729
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 25 48.0% 29.4 7.202 36.0% -0.022 1.0457
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 68 58.82% 29.26 10.912 29.41% 0.422 1.4573
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 168 30.95% 23.18 -4.919 50.6% -1.142 -1.0186
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 115 46.09% 21.97 -2.629 35.65% -0.671 0.2543
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 74 60.81% 35.84 3.295 54.05% -0.31 0.1723
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 28 53.57% 36.32 17.065 46.43% 0.534 1.5578
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 37 56.76% 31.08 -2.559 35.14% -0.371 0.5358
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 17 52.94% 34.76 -2.082 29.41% -0.627 0.9491
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 13 50.0% 35.77 -3.793 23.08% -0.098 1.6427

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3358 39.43 28.16 63.88% 0.327 0.5487 0.138
1 Thematic 435 40.92 28.88 48.05% -0.368 0.1051 0.441
2 Archipelago 7 28.57 17.57 28.57%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 640 42.81 27.33 55.63% 0.075 0.2097 -0.255
2 Coastline 133 41.35 28.53 66.17% -0.187 -0.2664 0.145
2 Fragment 19 52.63 22.63 42.11% 0.473 0.1658
2 Heart 4 75.0 36.75 50.0%
2 Opposite Shores 176 50.57 31.8 61.36% 0.512 0.437 -0.681
2 Thematic 162 36.42 25.91 44.44% -0.838 -0.577 -0.879
2 Top to Top 20 50.0 32.0 70.0% 0.503
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 43.5 50.0% 0.325
3 Coastline 8 37.5 36.75 100.0%
3 Other 4 100.0 22.75 75.0%
3 Round (Default) 275 39.78 30.38 64.36% -0.008 -0.2415 0.481
3 Thematic 35 54.29 28.43 37.14% -0.47 -0.7204 -0.187
4 Archipelago 4 0.0 28.5 75.0% -0.029 0.2248
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 66.67% 0.884
4 Snake 3 0.0 46.0 100.0% 0.708 -0.398
4 Thematic 18 27.78 28.94 50.0% 0.504 0.6655 -0.435
4 Trapezoid (Default) 133 32.58 24.74 57.89% -0.924 -0.6397 -1.525
5 Other 11 18.18 17.45 36.36% -0.179 -0.6265 0.083
5 Thematic 4 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.37 -0.6191 -0.258
6 Other 2 50.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 12 33.33 26.08 50.0% 0.442 0.5643 0.731
6 Two Centers (Default) 11 27.27 10.82 18.18% -0.33 -0.5604 -0.138

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 158 28.45 50.0% 0.538 0.7056 -0.384
Aid From Lesser Spirits 114 32.54 57.02% -0.268 -0.3035 0.951
All Things Weaken 174 28.21 48.85% 0.676 0.994 -0.021
Attenuated Essence 21 21.43 42.86% 0.025 0.127 -0.432
Back Against the Wall 115 31.61 47.83% 1.065 1.1312 0.528
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24 21.54 37.5% -0.065 0.1264 -0.106
Burn Brightest Before the End 19 25.53 47.37% 1.035 1.2366 -0.034
Disintegrating Ecosystem 138 26.02 42.03% 0.272 0.6607 0.078
Downward Spiral 163 28.06 46.63% -0.259 -0.1238 -0.064
Erosion of Will 137 26.71 39.42% 0.302 0.5969 0.278
Intensifying Exploitation 21 24.38 42.86% 0.66 0.905 -0.204
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 59 32.92 83.05% -0.187 -0.6715 0.3
Memory Fades to Dust 161 28.25 50.93% -0.101 0.1482 -0.317
Power Corrodes the Spirit 167 27.26 53.89% -0.349 -0.0988 -0.221
Promising Farmlands 150 28.18 50.0% 0.587 0.9073 -0.246
Shattered Fragments of Power 22 29.09 45.45% 0.211 0.4314 0.395
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 36.45 60.0% 0.009 0.3788 0.451
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 45 33.84 84.44% -0.733 -1.3283 0.854
The Border of Life and Death 7 26.57 71.43% 0.363 -0.1205 -0.237
Thriving Communities 154 25.95 42.21% -0.207 0.1324 -0.311
Thriving Crops 13 30.69 76.92% 0.418 0.3849
Unnatural Proliferation 174 30.46 54.02% 0.578 0.7063 0.628
Untended Land Crumbles 143 27.22 55.24% -0.108 0.306 0.442

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 992 38.14% 28.23 64.01% -0.14 0.7308 0.171
B 948 42.6% 27.91 60.86% -0.742 0.0924 -0.114
C 1059 39.17% 28.02 61.19% 0.02 0.725 -0.088
D 835 39.86% 27.08 61.8% -0.263 0.5566 -0.688
E 898 39.84% 27.74 60.47% -0.76 -0.0693 -0.282
F 806 40.12% 29.02 61.66% 0.321 1.1235 0.228
G 690 42.17% 27.61 57.39% 0.048 0.8896 -0.358
H 696 38.51% 28.38 61.64% -0.29 0.4955 0.134
East 415 38.55% 30.64 50.6% 0.116 0.946 0.974
Northeast 185 44.32% 31.24 50.81% -0.285 0.5022 0.362
Northwest 169 46.75% 27.02 43.79% 0.168 1.018 -0.322
Southeast 147 36.73% 26.77 44.9% -0.125 0.6847 -0.009
Southwest 137 36.5% 18.73 36.5% 0.249 1.5125 -0.75
West 388 42.01% 24.16 41.24% -0.757 0.2509 -0.777

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 34.4 60.0% 0.342
Not Using Events or Tokens 42 35.71% 24.21 59.52% 0.197 0.5884 0.158
Skip Initial Invader Actions 68 13.85% 39.03 82.35% -0.426 -1.0621 0.342
Start of Game Growth 150 18.37% 37.32 83.33% 1.372 0.833 0.5
Unlimited Undo 358 31.55% 22.72 44.97% -0.271 -0.2228 0.323
Using Tokens but Not Events 497 24.8% 27.49 67.0% -0.579 -0.6249 -0.47

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1499 15.81 12.41%
II 1918 30.49 66.89%
III 1500 34.78 85.47%
IV 564 38.41 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.122 Win Model: 0.159
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3881 39.5% 28.0 61.22%
2 1092 44.51% 28.87 58.42%
3 314 39.94% 29.73 62.1%
4 159 30.38% 26.69 61.01%
5 10 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
6 25 32.0% 19.56 36.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 185
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1272
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1274
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 561
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1044
Lose: Invader deck ran out 209
Lose: Adversary condition 221
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Blight pool ran out 658
Lose: Spirit destroyed 34

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-30 06:17:40 (Pacific Time)