Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 33.33% 35.06 0.643 75.0% -0.592 -0.3024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 14 64.29% 38.43 3.193 71.43% -0.237 0.1768
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 11 63.64% 44.45 5.509 63.64% -0.797 0.086
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 60.0% 40.4 4.228 60.0% -0.342 0.9002
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 29.17 -0.915 16.67% -1.187 0.3093
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 23.67 -3.746 0.0% -1.226 0.7132
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 51.0 10.028 50.0% -0.208 1.8346
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 48 37.5% 32.31 -0.591 81.25% -0.217 -0.1754
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 43 37.21% 40.3 2.966 93.02% 0.759 0.741
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 24 62.5% 47.83 7.212 87.5% 0.33 0.3433
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 24 75.0% 41.33 4.32 54.17% -1.061 -0.7775
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8 75.0% 44.88 6.381 50.0% -0.543 -0.1839
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 59.0 11.91 66.67% -0.248 0.5771
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 84.62% 44.62 6.076 30.77% -1.015 0.2245
The Kingdom of England 0 1 44 45.45% 33.64 0.189 79.55% -0.112 0.2182
The Kingdom of England 1 3 28 57.14% 34.46 0.99 60.71% -0.753 -0.2358
The Kingdom of England 2 4 21 80.95% 34.14 0.603 52.38% -0.896 0.0773
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 60.0% 39.5 2.604 40.0% -1.235 0.3452
The Kingdom of England 4 7 6 100.0% 36.0 2.037 33.33% -0.937 0.5583
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 29.0 -1.654 0.0% -0.554 1.5164
The Kingdom of England 6 11 32 75.0% 48.88 7.065 40.63% -1.841 0.4025
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 32 53.13% 32.63 -0.37 65.63% -0.694 -0.1824
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 32 50.0% 34.88 0.978 59.38% -0.854 0.0488
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 35 68.57% 39.37 4.029 54.29% -0.913 1.2281
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 54.55% 47.55 7.597 54.55% -1.096 1.102
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 66.67% 32.17 1.059 16.67% -1.33 0.8303
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 61.75 12.988 75.0% -0.58 1.2373
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13 84.62% 56.85 9.488 46.15% -1.264 0.8274
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 24 29.17% 34.04 0.115 87.5% 0.129 0.2176
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 27 59.26% 32.33 -1.256 66.67% -0.727 -0.6914
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 27 66.67% 37.22 2.545 77.78% 0.079 0.3163
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 22 63.64% 37.36 2.678 50.0% -0.952 -0.6621
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 75.0% 44.63 5.075 62.5% -0.287 0.4945
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 100.0% 44.67 7.172 66.67% -0.073 1.0957
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10 90.0% 54.1 10.823 70.0% 0.059 1.1811
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 33 36.36% 32.03 -0.929 78.79% -0.484 -0.5727
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 66.67% 37.07 2.271 66.67% -0.149 0.6305
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 17 70.59% 37.65 1.971 58.82% -0.854 -0.4426
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 75.0% 43.63 5.106 50.0% -1.092 0.1524
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 50.0% 64.75 15.058 100.0% 0.289 1.3971
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 56.33 12.997 33.33% -0.346 1.5255

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 919 43.96 33.88 -0.278 80.74% 0.499 0.5853
1 Thematic 101 53.47 38.16 0.999 65.35% -0.03 0.2468
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 40.5 5.757 50.0% 0.155 0.1615
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 149 47.65 34.29 -0.352 75.84% -0.024 0.0019
2 Coastline 56 41.07 33.8 -0.347 80.36% 0.071 0.0465
2 Fragment 8 50.0 26.5 -3.378 50.0% -0.719 -0.4966
2 Opposite Shores 70 55.71 37.23 0.176 62.86% -0.303 -0.2374
2 Thematic 21 57.14 40.29 1.563 76.19% 0.066 -0.0005
2 Top to Top 10 40.0 38.7 1.132 90.0% 0.193 0.124
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 87.0 23.556 100.0% 0.448 1.2521
3 Coastline 3 66.67 43.0 4.394 100.0% 0.455 0.3044
3 Round (Default) 82 42.68 33.34 -0.472 76.83% -0.405 -0.4435
3 Thematic 6 83.33 55.67 5.292 66.67% 0.0 -0.3658
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 39.0 1.712 100.0% 0.081 0.6286
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 -1.728 66.67% -0.479 -0.548
4 Thematic 4 50.0 41.5 0.847 75.0% 0.019 -0.9779
4 Trapezoid (Default) 49 42.86 33.73 -0.423 85.71% -0.218 -0.21
5 Other 2 0.0 52.0 8.178 100.0% 0.209 -0.2519

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 60 28.42 -4.041 50.0% -1.982 0.0869
Aid From Lesser Spirits 40 41.75 1.923 77.5% -0.604 1.3091
All Things Weaken 50 29.06 -3.668 60.0% -1.795 0.3639
Back Against the Wall 47 31.47 -3.248 44.68% -2.209 -0.1215
Disintegrating Ecosystem 43 25.72 -5.231 48.84% -2.054 0.1679
Downward Spiral 53 27.96 -4.28 50.94% -2.037 -0.0156
Erosion of Will 46 29.11 -4.143 41.3% -2.157 0.0506
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19 32.95 -1.268 94.74% 0.245 0.9232
Memory Fades to Dust 41 29.8 -3.15 63.41% -1.737 0.4776
Power Corrodes the Spirit 57 27.0 -4.668 54.39% -2.091 -0.0695
Promising Farmlands 45 30.78 -3.199 60.0% -1.651 0.557
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 38.53 0.738 94.12% 0.144 0.5555
Thriving Communities 53 27.08 -4.358 56.6% -2.047 0.0415
Unnatural Proliferation 61 29.95 -3.018 57.38% -1.803 0.2778
Untended Land Crumbles 48 30.88 -2.933 62.5% -1.484 0.6178

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 301 43.52% 34.09 -0.133 80.73% 0.043 -0.6453
B 260 45.0% 33.88 -0.396 77.31% -0.133 -0.9169
C 294 41.84% 34.67 0.149 79.25% -0.045 -1.0577
D 271 42.44% 33.17 -0.62 79.7% -0.206 -0.9834
E 261 43.68% 34.92 0.134 81.99% 0.162 -0.7319
F 206 50.97% 34.13 -0.225 73.3% -0.195 -1.0355
G 182 48.9% 35.13 0.011 72.53% -0.273 -1.1047
H 218 44.95% 34.74 0.048 82.11% -0.034 -0.8731
East 35 48.57% 46.03 3.931 74.29% 0.018 -0.5581
Northeast 31 58.06% 43.87 2.888 70.97% 0.412 -0.1122
Northwest 28 53.57% 41.68 2.503 78.57% 0.375 -0.2203
Southeast 24 62.5% 36.38 -0.073 66.67% -0.005 -0.6338
Southwest 21 61.9% 32.71 -1.777 66.67% 0.105 -0.0933
West 38 60.53% 39.84 0.403 57.89% -0.727 -1.0545

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 16.67% 34.5 -0.146 83.33% -0.161 0.0539
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 12.5% 45.08 3.957 100.0% 0.501 -0.1848
Start of Game Growth 37 18.92% 40.89 1.913 100.0% 1.098 0.6293
Unlimited Undo 54 50.0% 37.11 0.854 87.04% 0.344 -0.0791
Using Tokens but Not Events 149 21.48% 34.62 -0.033 88.59% 0.095 0.044

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 158 22.37 37.34%
II 628 30.88 73.57%
III 506 34.39 87.94%
IV 196 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.039 Win Model: 0.307
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1024 44.92% 34.31 79.2%
2 314 49.36% 35.25 72.93%
3 92 45.65% 35.42 78.26%
4 58 39.66% 35.09 86.21%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 59
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 443
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 460
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 195
Lose: Invader deck ran out 57
Lose: Adversary condition 70
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 189
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)