Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 106 34.91% 31.7 -2.09 66.04% -0.522 -0.2587
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 50 54.0% 34.98 -1.493 64.0% -0.201 0.1452
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 41 70.73% 35.17 -4.654 46.34% -0.585 0.2442
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 58.33% 34.67 0.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 16 68.75% 26.69 -9.428 18.75% -1.006 0.3138
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 100.0% 37.75 0.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 89.66% 34.69 3.557 17.24% -0.221 1.7919
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 133 35.34% 30.46 -3.899 71.43% -0.174 -0.0885
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 122 40.16% 35.4 -4.885 76.23% -0.853 -0.9488
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 69 56.52% 42.52 4.614 72.46% 0.216 0.2046
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 80 60.0% 40.89 6.855 51.25% -0.285 -0.088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 30 60.0% 40.17 -1.475 46.67% -0.373 -0.1698
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 8 50.0% 45.88 5.24 50.0% 0.043 0.604
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 21 66.67% 31.76 -7.157 19.05% -0.615 0.7233
The Kingdom of England 0 1 115 40.87% 33.36 -2.05 76.52% 0.017 0.2824
The Kingdom of England 1 3 78 46.15% 35.91 5.428 62.82% 0.565 0.7486
The Kingdom of England 2 4 42 66.67% 29.02 -7.444 42.86% -1.038 -0.3016
The Kingdom of England 3 6 29 62.07% 31.38 -6.143 27.59% -1.056 0.0837
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 30.57 -8.014 35.71% -0.437 0.6094
The Kingdom of England 5 9 14 100.0% 39.93 7.526 28.57% -0.121 1.5191
The Kingdom of England 6 11 50 58.0% 38.72 -7.181 28.0% -0.849 1.1928
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 87 44.83% 31.16 -2.872 60.92% -0.531 -0.1285
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 67 49.25% 32.3 -1.168 53.73% -0.277 0.6783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 108 61.11% 35.1 5.313 38.89% -0.224 0.8492
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 30 46.67% 43.17 -9.399 50.0% -0.914 0.3741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 43.75% 37.13 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 70.0% 51.1 2.88 50.0% -0.305 0.624
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 27 70.37% 55.52 11.484 44.44% 0.107 1.4507
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 22 31.82% 22.59 -0.719 45.45% 0.003 0.0198
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 30 46.67% 29.2 -4.592 40.0% -0.714 -0.2839
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 30 56.67% 26.9 3.714 16.67% 0.132 0.5736
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 50.0% 32.38 4.081 37.5% -0.143 0.2424
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 50.0% 28.25 0.885 25.0% -0.328 0.2907
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 14 71.43% 32.29 -0.1 21.43% -0.171 0.6121
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 49.67 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 86 36.05% 28.37 -4.196 67.44% -0.366 -0.1863
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 88 48.86% 30.97 -2.931 63.64% -0.446 -0.42
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 91 56.04% 34.95 -1.642 67.03% -0.336 -0.1129
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 62 58.06% 37.56 -0.118 51.61% -0.64 -0.2126
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 22 63.64% 41.73 3.331 54.55% -0.141 0.4673
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 17 64.71% 39.47 14.37 47.06% 0.763 1.7728
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 39 74.36% 39.0 -0.606 38.46% -0.993 -0.1061
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 96 37.5% 32.86 -1.927 73.96% -0.132 -0.0107
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 68 64.71% 29.91 -5.518 45.59% -0.542 0.0986
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 51 64.71% 40.08 6.945 60.78% 0.36 0.7858
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 64.71% 48.06 -2.524 58.82% -0.981 0.1336
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 18 61.11% 46.22 -6.448 55.56% -0.38 0.5242
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 52.0 27.139 42.86% 0.52 2.016
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 80.0% 52.17 11.421 33.33% 0.116 1.9562

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2279 44.14 32.28 72.75% 0.579 0.6328 0.289
1 Thematic 267 49.44 35.88 59.93% -0.315 0.1631 0.165
2 Archipelago 6 33.33 13.5 16.67% -0.59 -0.4857
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 440 46.14 31.68 64.77% 0.265 0.3474 -0.074
2 Coastline 91 40.66 32.21 76.92% -0.049 -0.2036 0.171
2 Fragment 13 53.85 22.38 38.46% -0.54 -0.7896
2 Heart 4 75.0 36.75 50.0% 0.215 -0.0721
2 Opposite Shores 131 51.91 34.65 64.12% 0.795 0.8178 -0.835
2 Thematic 94 43.62 35.45 60.64% -0.271 0.1322 -0.701
2 Top to Top 15 46.67 37.13 80.0% 0.29 0.1238 0.447
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 87.0 100.0% 0.368
3 Coastline 4 75.0 38.0 100.0% 0.152 -0.3615
3 Other 2 100.0 26.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 191 44.21 32.91 71.2% -0.811 -0.9263 0.105
3 Thematic 21 71.43 36.76 52.38% -0.429 -0.3491 -0.049
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 66.67%
4 Thematic 15 26.67 30.53 53.33% -0.106 -0.3679 -0.039
4 Trapezoid (Default) 82 38.27 31.26 76.83% 0.148 0.0653 -0.047
5 Other 4 0.0 26.0 50.0% -0.23 -0.5153 -0.11
6 Other 2 50.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 6 33.33 34.17 83.33% 0.153 0.573 0.408
6 Two Centers (Default) 7 14.29 13.86 28.57% -0.099 0.0053 -0.122

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 125 28.32 48.0% -0.212 0.0307 -1.276
Aid From Lesser Spirits 85 35.39 62.35% -0.128 -0.2058 0.625
All Things Weaken 123 28.35 49.59% 0.221 0.6132 0.102
Attenuated Essence 5 20.4 40.0% 0.05 0.1571
Back Against the Wall 91 31.27 46.15% 0.947 1.005 0.279
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 26.0 50.0% -0.141 0.0606
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 5.0 0.0% -0.618 -0.4077
Disintegrating Ecosystem 112 27.58 43.75% -0.585 -0.1614 -0.415
Downward Spiral 133 29.47 50.38% 0.268 0.5039 0.006
Erosion of Will 115 27.9 41.74% 0.198 0.5071 0.015
Intensifying Exploitation 7 28.14 42.86% 0.388 0.6756 -0.568
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 48 34.46 89.58% 1.244 0.7501 0.497
Memory Fades to Dust 128 29.33 53.91% -0.008 0.3286 -0.328
Power Corrodes the Spirit 125 28.71 54.4% -1.061 -0.8402 -0.836
Promising Farmlands 118 28.9 51.69% 0.254 0.7074 -0.471
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 17.75 25.0% -0.552 -0.5013 -0.435
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 36.25 50.0% 0.137 0.5364 0.224
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 36 35.31 94.44% 0.761 0.0501 0.532
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 119 26.89 44.54% 0.401 0.7635 -0.983
Thriving Crops 4 24.25 75.0% 0.535 0.3377
Unnatural Proliferation 145 31.03 57.93% 0.623 0.8378 0.314
Untended Land Crumbles 116 28.98 57.76% 0.379 0.6608 0.221

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 661 40.76% 32.56 74.89% -0.061 0.6795 0.484
B 646 47.52% 31.99 69.97% -0.529 0.1971 0.184
C 710 43.93% 32.02 69.72% -0.188 0.3942 0.086
D 573 41.96% 31.56 71.9% -0.265 0.4465 -0.496
E 627 42.4% 32.07 71.45% -0.066 0.4996 -0.229
F 528 45.73% 32.58 68.94% -0.224 0.4463 -0.004
G 460 48.91% 31.59 63.7% -0.029 0.6224 -0.413
H 484 42.77% 32.01 69.21% -0.418 0.1526 0.045
East 256 46.48% 38.17 64.45% 0.386 0.9248 1.572
Northeast 115 48.7% 38.8 65.22% -0.798 -0.1628 0.445
Northwest 107 51.4% 33.83 56.07% -0.677 0.1317 -0.336
Southeast 85 48.24% 36.27 62.35% 0.371 1.0768 0.081
Southwest 79 46.84% 25.32 49.37% -0.103 0.8869 -0.423
West 230 50.43% 32.18 55.22% -0.832 0.0721 -0.434

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 43.0 75.0% 0.181 0.9574 0.488
Not Using Events or Tokens 22 40.91% 28.27 72.73% -0.435 -0.0559
Skip Initial Invader Actions 49 14.89% 44.63 93.88% 0.803 0.1856 0.488
Start of Game Growth 88 25.58% 40.03 84.09% 1.011 0.6626 0.488
Unlimited Undo 203 43.28% 30.44 59.61% -1.306 -1.3122 0.014
Using Tokens but Not Events 358 25.42% 32.02 78.77% -0.032 -0.0421 -0.757

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 631 20.4 21.24%
II 1459 31.01 69.23%
III 1162 34.76 86.14%
IV 430 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.235 Win Model: 0.08
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2577 44.7% 32.64 71.13%
2 779 47.24% 32.67 65.47%
3 208 45.41% 33.18 71.15%
4 101 34.0% 31.84 75.25%
5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
6 15 26.67% 23.93 53.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 133
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 993
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1003
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 427
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 220
Lose: Invader deck ran out 161
Lose: Adversary condition 181
Win: Sacrifice victory 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 519
Lose: Spirit destroyed 26

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)