Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 59 13.56% 17.76 0.511 32.2% -0.185 -0.0045
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 34 17.65% 18.97 -0.933 38.24% -0.23 -0.1009
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 18 27.78% 16.89 8.803 33.33% 0.217 0.6604
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 13 23.08% 20.46 0.0 30.77%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 13 30.77% 13.85 0.0 15.38%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 33.33% 8.33 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 27.67 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 219 30.59% 22.54 11.875 45.21% 0.32 0.7857
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 148 37.16% 23.94 2.511 44.59% 0.21 0.1357
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 101 56.44% 25.42 0.0 35.64%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 38 55.26% 28.32 0.0 39.47%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 60.0% 24.12 -10.81 20.0% -0.337 0.835
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 64.29% 31.86 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 34 76.47% 29.59 0.0 14.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 326 29.45% 24.21 -2.208 56.44% -0.662 -0.3109
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 276 35.51% 26.92 3.315 57.61% 0.638 0.6589
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 155 49.68% 34.45 -0.505 59.35% -0.363 -0.2302
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 145 60.69% 37.28 13.411 49.66% 0.555 0.9169
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 58 51.72% 35.98 -2.789 46.55% -0.108 0.1085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 13 46.15% 38.38 0.0 38.46%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 53.85% 31.74 -10.946 20.51% -0.3 1.0462
The Kingdom of England 0 1 311 28.3% 21.04 -2.15 46.95% -0.708 -0.5056
The Kingdom of England 1 3 207 39.61% 26.05 2.597 43.48% 0.114 0.4363
The Kingdom of England 2 4 105 44.76% 21.43 -3.662 32.38% -0.499 0.067
The Kingdom of England 3 6 67 46.27% 24.06 0.0 23.88%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 49 44.9% 24.98 0.0 28.57%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 70.83% 26.29 4.726 16.67% -0.371 0.8121
The Kingdom of England 6 11 62 52.46% 35.45 0.0 25.81%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 195 33.33% 23.58 -4.246 46.15% -0.237 0.2287
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 170 39.41% 24.47 -7.982 42.35% -0.482 0.3978
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 180 50.0% 28.82 6.891 30.56% 0.216 1.2106
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 53 43.4% 36.09 3.021 41.51% -0.181 1.1391
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 37 32.43% 25.62 0.0 18.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 20 45.0% 34.45 0.0 35.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 68 63.24% 40.59 8.496 23.53% -0.506 0.7822
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 168 17.86% 17.67 0.39 40.48% 0.346 0.3728
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 124 37.9% 22.24 4.444 35.48% 0.182 0.7037
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 72 41.67% 17.89 -7.449 15.28% -0.193 0.5122
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 43 37.21% 27.93 0.0 32.56%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 45 31.11% 17.31 0.0 15.56%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 44 65.91% 21.45 -9.567 18.18% -0.267 0.373
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 28 57.14% 40.39 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 243 28.4% 18.72 -8.622 43.62% -0.915 -0.7368
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 213 37.09% 22.49 -8.52 45.54% -0.795 -0.6646
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 231 46.32% 25.03 1.478 47.19% -0.397 -0.1909
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 112 51.79% 30.12 8.306 44.64% 0.164 0.4252
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 49 53.06% 30.24 0.0 38.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 50 50.0% 25.8 -9.504 30.0% -0.352 0.3781
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 94 60.64% 28.27 9.853 27.66% -0.023 0.7735
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 299 26.76% 19.61 -3.697 43.81% -0.869 -0.6247
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 173 41.62% 19.88 -10.036 33.53% -0.399 0.1704
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 110 50.91% 29.42 10.268 44.55% 0.596 0.985
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 60 43.33% 28.92 -0.589 35.0% -0.559 0.2379
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 53 49.06% 24.3 0.0 26.42%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 28 60.71% 32.54 -2.342 25.0% -0.743 1.1155
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 17 50.0% 30.82 -6.219 17.65% -0.158 1.5056

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4959 37.4 25.78 58.2% 0.012 0.2158 0.0
1 Thematic 719 36.72 25.39 42.28% 0.027 0.636 -0.068
2 Archipelago 12 33.33 27.58 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 964 38.19 24.46 50.21% -0.522 -0.442 -0.117
2 Coastline 181 40.33 28.14 64.64% 0.36 0.2649
2 Fragment 26 50.0 22.96 42.31%
2 Heart 6 66.67 40.83 66.67% 0.393
2 Opposite Shores 258 46.9 29.61 58.14% -0.266 -0.1341 0.091
2 Thematic 272 28.31 20.36 36.03% -0.062 0.2963 -0.691
2 Top to Top 28 53.57 27.36 57.14% 0.263 0.1737
3 Archipelago 3 66.67 49.0 66.67%
3 Coastline 8 37.5 36.75 100.0%
3 Other 7 71.43 19.43 57.14%
3 Round (Default) 440 39.41 28.44 60.45% 0.3 0.3056 0.197
3 Thematic 49 46.94 24.51 32.65% -0.193 -0.6236 -0.069
4 Archipelago 5 20.0 32.8 80.0% 0.217 -0.0239
4 Leaf 2 50.0 42.5 100.0%
4 Other 4 25.0 22.5 50.0%
4 Snake 3 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 27 29.63 26.74 44.44%
4 Trapezoid (Default) 166 33.94 23.7 53.01% 0.403 0.5925 -0.133
5 Other 18 16.67 22.39 38.89%
5 Thematic 6 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Other 15 26.67 9.73 26.67% -0.422 -0.4607
6 Star 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 14 28.57 22.36 42.86% -0.108 0.1402 -0.07
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 26.67 14.8 26.67% -0.106
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.095

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 215 27.4 47.91% -0.693 -0.5441 -0.406
Aid From Lesser Spirits 148 31.64 52.7% -0.516 -0.6291 0.31
All Things Weaken 217 27.81 48.85% 0.016 0.3908 -0.31
Attenuated Essence 62 24.76 46.77% 0.216 0.3417 0.232
Back Against the Wall 149 31.6 48.99% -0.181 -0.14 0.43
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 61 24.03 47.54% 0.167 0.3732
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 29.64 52.27% -0.301 -0.2561 1.236
Disintegrating Ecosystem 174 25.29 43.68% -0.311
Downward Spiral 221 28.15 51.58% -0.315 -0.0652 0.265
Erosion of Will 193 26.82 42.49% -0.343 -0.0853 0.667
Intensifying Exploitation 56 22.63 42.86% -0.181 0.0379 -0.049
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 74 31.05 77.03% 0.275 -0.1112 -0.135
Memory Fades to Dust 222 27.63 49.55% 0.067 0.2724 -0.18
Power Corrodes the Spirit 227 26.72 52.42% 0.09 0.2884 -0.046
Promising Farmlands 198 27.66 51.01% 0.321 0.6772 0.87
Shattered Fragments of Power 50 28.0 42.0% -0.297 -0.0791 0.439
Slow Dissolution of Will 62 29.42 50.0% -0.353 0.0767 -0.45
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 54 33.72 81.48% -0.066
The Border of Life and Death 16 28.19 62.5%
Thriving Communities 195 24.53 39.49% -0.163 0.1563 -0.384
Thriving Crops 30 26.87 56.67% -0.117
Unnatural Proliferation 207 30.81 54.59% 0.228 0.3171 0.396
Untended Land Crumbles 206 26.04 49.51% 0.473 0.6981 0.014

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1487 35.44% 25.69 58.04% 0.264 1.0637 -0.99
B 1433 41.54% 25.92 55.34% 0.462 1.1921 0.29
C 1530 37.75% 25.94 57.06% -0.5 0.1047 0.17
D 1254 36.88% 25.17 56.78% 0.84 1.5964 -0.41
E 1290 37.42% 25.23 54.65% 0.055 0.6391 -0.047
F 1188 38.58% 27.08 56.9% -0.588 0.115 0.003
G 1060 39.28% 25.32 53.3% -0.285 0.4723 0.237
H 1041 36.31% 26.26 57.16% 0.28 0.9109 0.237
East 646 32.97% 26.33 43.5% -0.4 0.3835 -0.307
Northeast 284 38.38% 26.66 43.66% -0.165 0.5968 -0.128
Northwest 283 38.52% 23.75 39.58% -0.889 -0.0464 -0.444
Southeast 224 30.36% 23.07 39.73% 0.017 0.6564 0.004
Southwest 237 30.38% 16.33 32.91% 0.144 1.1897 -0.646
West 649 35.9% 20.86 36.06% -0.032 0.7432 -0.554

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 27.8 50.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 77 30.26% 19.34 48.05% -0.554 -0.1774
Skip Initial Invader Actions 102 11.58% 33.71 70.59% 0.445 0.1533
Start of Game Growth 186 17.88% 34.66 76.34% 0.445 -0.1121
Unlimited Undo 563 28.09% 19.8 39.08% -0.525 -0.4616 0.179
Using Tokens but Not Events 686 24.37% 26.42 63.7% 0.041 -0.0861 -0.127

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2723 12.44 8.7%
II 2673 29.94 65.25%
III 2065 34.9 86.0%
IV 753 38.84 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.167 Win Model: -0.124
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5852 36.99% 25.34 55.08%
2 1608 40.37% 26.47 53.98%
3 485 39.67% 28.14 59.18%
4 204 32.02% 25.45 55.88%
5 19 5.26% 11.11 15.79%
6 46 26.09% 15.48 32.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 236
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1763
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1732
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 748
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2184
Lose: Invader deck ran out 290
Lose: Adversary condition 311
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Blight pool ran out 870
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)