Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 16 31.25% 38.81 1.653 87.5% 0.006 0.2872
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 32.0 -1.971 33.33% -1.009 -0.619
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 50.0% 49.83 7.176 83.33% -0.082 0.7879
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 53.67 9.976 100.0% 0.474 1.7309
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 46.5 5.978 50.0% -0.434 1.0948
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 67.0 16.717 100.0% 0.135 2.2051
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 30 33.33% 31.77 -0.689 80.0% -0.118 -0.0797
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 14 50.0% 43.0 4.378 100.0% 1.067 1.0367
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 50.0% 46.71 6.578 85.71% 0.09 0.0949
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15 80.0% 35.0 1.663 40.0% -1.423 -1.1316
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 100.0% 41.0 5.093 50.0% -0.197 0.1643
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 74.0 18.559 100.0% 0.151 0.9791
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 100.0% 44.67 5.121 33.33% -0.595 0.6493
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 58.82% 30.12 -1.233 64.71% -0.483 -0.1519
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 62.5% 37.75 2.365 62.5% -0.489 0.0108
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 85.71% 40.57 4.053 71.43% -0.009 0.9601
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 40.0% 41.6 2.483 40.0% -1.022 0.5567
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 100.0% 60.0 16.829 100.0% 0.338 1.8388
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 29.0 -1.856 0.0% -0.567 1.5028
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 61.54% 51.54 7.815 46.15% -1.358 0.894
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 58.33% 35.75 1.647 75.0% -0.078 0.4473
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 11 72.73% 25.27 -2.979 27.27% -1.566 -0.6726
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 55.56% 44.22 6.995 66.67% 0.038 2.167
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 60.0% 49.4 8.683 60.0% -0.627 1.5595
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 80.0% 33.0 1.361 20.0% -1.029 1.1131
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 69.0 16.49 66.67% -0.056 2.0597
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 30.0% 35.3 0.294 90.0% 0.144 0.2331
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 45.45% 34.73 0.249 72.73% -0.515 -0.4951
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 70.0% 33.8 1.386 70.0% -0.188 0.0349
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 61.54% 38.77 3.069 53.85% -0.944 -0.6586
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 50.0% 60.0 11.327 100.0% 0.517 1.2848
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 39.0 4.051 50.0% -0.386 0.7745
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3 100.0% 55.0 10.281 66.67% -0.078 1.0549
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 8.33% 33.92 -0.149 75.0% -0.762 -0.8819
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 50.0 10.86 100.0% 0.371 1.0891
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 63.64% 35.0 1.08 54.55% -0.665 -0.2233
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 66.67% 43.5 5.271 50.0% -0.857 0.3939
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 62.5 12.525 100.0% 0.145 1.2691

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 428 42.76 33.75 -0.416 80.84% 0.172 0.4997
1 Thematic 33 36.36 39.94 1.661 69.7% -0.116 0.3573
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 80 46.25 34.71 -0.281 76.25% -0.167 0.0295
2 Coastline 24 50.0 34.96 0.045 75.0% -0.152 -0.0007
2 Fragment 7 57.14 25.43 -2.56 42.86% -0.613 -0.2089
2 Opposite Shores 28 28.57 34.64 -0.159 85.71% 0.119 0.342
2 Thematic 8 50.0 46.0 3.514 87.5% 0.296 0.325
2 Top to Top 8 37.5 41.38 2.371 100.0% 0.476 0.6158
3 Coastline 2 50.0 51.5 5.142 100.0% 0.118 0.0711
3 Round (Default) 46 39.13 34.17 0.196 80.43% 0.02 0.078
3 Thematic 3 66.67 38.67 -2.625 33.33% -0.452 -0.8134
4 Other 2 0.0 37.0 0.531 100.0% 0.183 0.3142
4 Thematic 2 0.0 48.5 1.178 100.0% 0.153 -0.9067
4 Trapezoid (Default) 14 21.43 31.64 -1.473 85.71% -0.254 -0.2156
5 Other 2 0.0 52.0 7.613 100.0% 0.232 0.0327

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 28 27.43 -3.973 53.57% -1.445 0.6258
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 46.87 3.222 80.0% -0.322 1.5996
All Things Weaken 19 25.63 -4.862 52.63% -1.617 0.5361
Back Against the Wall 16 27.94 -4.131 50.0% -1.648 0.4487
Disintegrating Ecosystem 21 22.71 -6.355 42.86% -1.827 0.3983
Downward Spiral 24 25.5 -5.797 37.5% -2.169 -0.1505
Erosion of Will 22 28.82 -3.536 50.0% -1.548 0.662
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 33.22 -0.662 100.0% 0.592 1.2858
Memory Fades to Dust 18 31.67 -2.018 83.33% -0.434 1.7811
Power Corrodes the Spirit 28 28.25 -4.206 57.14% -1.81 0.2071
Promising Farmlands 20 29.05 -3.982 55.0% -1.593 0.6206
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 38.5 1.366 100.0% 0.285 0.7151
Thriving Communities 23 24.61 -5.365 56.52% -1.896 0.1993
Unnatural Proliferation 23 29.17 -3.577 56.52% -1.549 0.5378
Untended Land Crumbles 17 27.71 -4.13 58.82% -1.45 0.6463

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 154 40.26% 34.1 -0.137 83.12% 0.202 -0.899
B 128 37.5% 33.54 -0.562 79.69% -0.15 -1.3461
C 137 33.58% 35.61 0.549 82.48% 0.159 -1.27
D 119 40.34% 32.64 -0.848 76.47% -0.289 -1.4796
E 131 35.11% 34.95 0.309 84.73% 0.368 -0.9308
F 95 53.68% 33.22 -0.442 72.63% -0.051 -1.3053
G 80 48.75% 35.89 0.431 80.0% 0.301 -0.9411
H 96 41.67% 34.73 0.183 82.29% 0.246 -1.0111
East 17 52.94% 45.12 3.419 70.59% 0.111 -0.8493
Northeast 9 44.44% 38.33 0.018 55.56% -0.128 -1.0293
Northwest 9 33.33% 41.22 2.213 77.78% 0.132 -0.8428
Southeast 9 33.33% 36.78 -2.413 66.67% -0.669 -1.6736
Southwest 6 33.33% 38.83 -0.291 83.33% 0.253 -0.347
West 16 31.25% 46.44 2.577 81.25% 0.034 -0.6655

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 0.0% 43.67 2.517 100.0% 0.344 -0.3608
Start of Game Growth 20 10.0% 41.75 2.202 100.0% 0.795 0.343
Unlimited Undo 27 40.74% 39.41 1.209 88.89% 0.277 -0.1396
Using Tokens but Not Events 76 18.42% 34.84 0.183 90.79% 0.437 0.3856

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 81 22.33 44.44%
II 284 30.75 77.46%
III 232 34.25 87.07%
IV 90 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.023 Win Model: -0.012
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 463 42.12% 34.23 80.13%
2 153 44.44% 35.14 77.78%
3 52 40.38% 35.21 78.85%
4 19 15.79% 35.68 89.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 36
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 200
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 218
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 89
Lose: Invader deck ran out 22
Lose: Adversary condition 21
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 92
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)