Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 41.0 3.33 100.0% 0.092 0.3748
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 57.0 12.273 100.0% 0.181 1.0419
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 54.0 11.228 100.0% 0.088 1.3383
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 28.57% 27.57 -1.28 71.43% -0.179 -0.1365
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 66.67% 42.67 5.046 100.0% 0.238 0.2125
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 36.0 1.418 66.67% -0.413 -0.4127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 88.89% 23.56 -3.259 11.11% -2.367 -2.0743
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 33.33% 38.0 0.759 100.0% 0.104 0.4352
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 100.0% 16.5 -6.397 0.0% -1.005 -0.5149
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 100.0% 60.0 14.334 100.0% 0.112 1.6266
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 44.0 4.602 100.0% 0.228 0.7531
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 57.5 11.008 100.0% 0.208 2.3357
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 64.0 17.555 100.0% 0.325 2.5096
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 26.0 -0.94 0.0% -0.513 1.6374
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 50.0% 36.5 1.244 100.0% 0.138 0.2264
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 100.0% 44.0 5.798 100.0% 0.049 0.0596
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 40.0 5.183 100.0% 0.333 0.552
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 37.25 2.864 50.0% -0.643 -0.36
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 32.5 0.845 50.0% -0.565 -0.6878
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 52.0 7.822 100.0% 0.185 0.6234
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 100.0% 20.0 -2.872 0.0% -0.466 0.7928

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 131 35.11 33.14 -0.347 87.02% -0.352 0.0064
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25 40.0 31.08 -0.626 68.0% -0.622 -0.4267
2 Coastline 4 75.0 45.75 5.349 100.0% 0.401 0.5433
2 Opposite Shores 7 28.57 38.86 3.091 100.0% 0.551 0.7756
2 Top to Top 5 40.0 36.8 2.536 100.0% 0.526 0.66
3 Round (Default) 12 41.67 26.67 -2.052 66.67% -0.41 -0.3715
3 Thematic 1 100.0 55.0 3.85 100.0% 0.054 -0.3028
4 Other 1 0.0 34.0 3.736 100.0% 0.22 0.333
4 Thematic 1 0.0 32.0 0.336 100.0% 0.15 -0.9362
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4 0.0 27.5 -2.406 50.0% -0.627 -0.644
5 Other 1 0.0 26.0 -1.482 100.0% 0.122 -0.0962

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7 33.43 -0.49 85.71% 0.299 2.3695
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 26.0 -3.517 50.0% -0.747 1.171
All Things Weaken 6 22.5 -4.69 50.0% -0.818 1.3365
Back Against the Wall 7 25.0 -3.636 42.86% -0.759 1.3368
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 21.33 -5.622 33.33% -1.388 0.836
Downward Spiral 4 32.25 -3.455 50.0% -0.849 1.1682
Erosion of Will 3 19.33 -5.549 33.33% -0.575 1.6345
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 29.5 -2.98 100.0% 0.199 0.9033
Memory Fades to Dust 5 33.4 -1.192 100.0% 0.224 2.4392
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6 32.33 -1.594 83.33% -0.166 1.8537
Promising Farmlands 3 32.0 -2.784 66.67% -0.366 1.847
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 39.5 2.231 100.0% 0.161 0.5968
Thriving Communities 5 21.2 -7.079 40.0% -1.439 0.6588
Unnatural Proliferation 5 28.2 -2.072 80.0% -0.289 1.7882
Untended Land Crumbles 2 14.5 -7.362 0.0% -0.929 1.1691

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 53 24.53% 34.26 0.345 86.79% -0.005 -1.0947
B 30 33.33% 34.97 1.052 86.67% 0.378 -0.8071
C 34 23.53% 32.18 -0.097 82.35% -0.133 -1.5479
D 39 38.46% 30.77 -0.653 76.92% -0.115 -1.2926
E 45 24.44% 32.36 -0.239 86.67% 0.17 -1.1073
F 28 57.14% 32.14 -0.278 71.43% -0.319 -1.562
G 16 50.0% 29.69 -0.715 68.75% -0.398 -1.6288
H 29 48.28% 29.28 -0.987 72.41% -0.469 -1.7087
East 2 50.0% 43.5 2.104 100.0% 0.204 -0.7467
Northeast 1 100.0% 55.0 3.85 100.0% 0.054 -0.836
Northwest 1 100.0% 55.0 3.85 100.0% 0.054 -0.9109
Southeast 1 0.0% 32.0 0.336 100.0% 0.15 -0.8514
Southwest 1 0.0% 32.0 0.336 100.0% 0.15 -0.4581
West 1 0.0% 32.0 0.336 100.0% 0.15 -0.5358

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 0.0% 43.5 2.513 100.0% 0.165 -0.5388
Start of Game Growth 4 0.0% 43.5 2.513 100.0% 0.165 -0.289
Unlimited Undo 4 50.0% 39.25 0.667 75.0% -0.461 -0.8728
Using Tokens but Not Events 24 16.67% 37.63 2.182 91.67% 0.388 0.3405

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28 22.34 57.14%
II 80 30.75 86.25%
III 63 34.26 87.3%
IV 21 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.269 Win Model: -0.38
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 133 34.59% 33.29 87.22%
2 39 43.59% 34.08 79.49%
3 13 46.15% 28.85 69.23%
4 7 0.0% 28.86 71.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 16
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 54
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 68
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 21
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 2
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)