Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 74 39.19% 36.31 5.633 78.38% 0.565 1.1327
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 32 59.38% 37.19 -4.207 65.63% -1.102 -0.4133
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 26 80.77% 41.58 1.274 57.69% -0.248 0.7982
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 39.0 0.0 57.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12 83.33% 35.58 0.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 100.0% 37.75 3.421 25.0% -0.815 0.7841
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 28 89.29% 34.96 0.49 17.86% -0.178 2.013
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 99 36.36% 32.56 1.307 76.77% 0.277 0.5651
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 91 39.56% 39.04 1.605 86.81% -0.151 -0.3683
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 56 58.93% 45.23 3.5 76.79% -0.335 -0.1225
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 41 68.29% 44.76 12.331 58.54% 0.311 0.8081
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 21 66.67% 45.33 5.35 52.38% -0.294 0.2434
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 25.0% 63.5 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 87.5% 41.69 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 92 39.13% 35.98 2.977 81.52% 0.879 1.2937
The Kingdom of England 1 3 61 52.46% 36.36 4.483 63.93% 0.266 0.9796
The Kingdom of England 2 4 30 80.0% 33.03 0.836 46.67% -0.247 0.7816
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 68.42% 39.79 3.037 36.84% -0.556 1.1027
The Kingdom of England 4 7 7 100.0% 39.57 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 45.8 0.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 40 70.0% 46.75 0.0 35.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 63 50.79% 32.95 0.503 65.08% -0.005 0.7979
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 51 56.86% 33.08 -1.233 52.94% 0.064 0.9369
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 87 67.82% 36.38 9.892 40.23% 0.412 2.6831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 24 54.17% 49.67 5.205 58.33% -0.865 1.4674
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 41.67% 41.0 8.195 33.33% -0.268 2.1385
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 57.14% 54.0 9.483 57.14% -0.354 1.509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 22 72.73% 58.55 10.591 50.0% -0.504 1.8109
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 40.0% 32.4 0.203 60.0% 0.295 0.1437
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 15 60.0% 39.27 8.614 53.33% 0.364 1.2501
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 22 63.64% 23.64 -4.257 0.0% -1.141 -0.1659
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 100.0% 26.0 -1.103 0.0% -0.252 0.4665
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 37.67 11.547 33.33% 0.287 1.5795
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 85.71% 36.29 5.602 14.29% -0.588 0.8073
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 62 40.32% 33.71 0.136 80.65% 0.143 0.276
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 67 58.21% 35.72 1.908 73.13% 0.057 0.0178
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 63 63.49% 36.87 2.571 69.84% -0.166 0.313
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 47 63.83% 38.64 4.024 51.06% -0.427 -0.1544
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 16 68.75% 43.31 0.0 56.25%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12 75.0% 38.58 0.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 23 91.3% 47.91 14.744 52.17% 0.123 1.3425
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 69 36.23% 36.23 2.094 82.61% 0.447 0.3129
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 52 73.08% 34.25 3.3 51.92% 0.215 0.9923
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 39 66.67% 39.18 6.862 58.97% 0.053 0.5304
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 60.0% 51.27 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 58.33% 53.67 5.239 66.67% -0.055 1.2809
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 35.0 4.029 0.0% -0.168 1.6819
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 54.75 0.0 25.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1786 46.05 33.45 76.82% 0.143 0.5904 0.216
1 Thematic 195 54.36 40.3 67.69% -0.292 0.3105 0.044
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 40.5 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 312 47.12 34.1 70.51% -0.16 0.2317 -0.1
2 Coastline 81 43.21 32.53 79.01% 0.767 0.8554 -0.112
2 Fragment 11 54.55 25.09 45.45%
2 Heart 2 100.0 15.0 0.0%
2 Opposite Shores 111 54.05 36.04 64.86% 0.002 0.4947 -1.027
2 Thematic 62 51.61 41.87 70.97% 0.163 0.6308 0.112
2 Top to Top 13 38.46 39.69 84.62% -0.047 0.2354 0.19
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 87.0 100.0% 0.239
3 Coastline 3 66.67 43.0 100.0%
3 Other 2 100.0 26.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 152 42.11 35.11 76.97% -0.758 -0.4897 0.342
3 Thematic 12 83.33 51.42 75.0% 0.041 -0.1827 0.058
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 66.67%
4 Thematic 8 25.0 43.13 87.5% 0.046 0.1425 -0.054
4 Trapezoid (Default) 72 41.67 32.82 79.17% 0.101 -0.0362 -0.03
5 Other 2 0.0 52.0 100.0% 0.133
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 3 33.33 33.33 100.0% 0.013 0.3762
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 32.33 66.67%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 109 28.12 49.54% -0.094 1.7371 -1.366
Aid From Lesser Spirits 70 37.23 67.14% -0.331 1.3233 0.911
All Things Weaken 102 27.66 48.04% -1.283 0.6938 -0.181
Back Against the Wall 80 30.91 45.0% -0.906 0.9527 0.033
Disintegrating Ecosystem 93 27.31 46.24% -1.248 0.7264 -0.826
Downward Spiral 112 28.43 50.0% -0.576 1.3255 -0.523
Erosion of Will 95 28.15 44.21% -1.584 0.4599 -0.129
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33 34.52 93.94% 0.254 0.8267
Memory Fades to Dust 96 29.17 56.25% -0.487 1.4922 -0.335
Power Corrodes the Spirit 107 29.28 57.94% -1.252 0.6396 -0.97
Promising Farmlands 90 30.03 52.22% -0.559 1.4793 -0.602
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 24 37.21 95.83% 0.15 0.5911 0.362
Thriving Communities 99 26.17 43.43% -2.028 -0.0636 -0.868
Unnatural Proliferation 126 30.74 58.73% 0.022 1.9283 0.151
Untended Land Crumbles 95 28.52 57.89% -0.152 1.883 -0.174

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 510 43.33% 34.05 79.41% 0.334 1.1022 0.274
B 497 48.39% 33.89 76.26% 0.387 1.0798 0.063
C 570 45.44% 34.02 74.04% -0.633 -0.0683 0.115
D 459 44.01% 32.99 76.25% -0.447 0.3215 -0.652
E 471 43.31% 34.4 77.71% -0.038 0.5616 -0.213
F 403 46.15% 34.21 74.69% -0.053 0.6569 0.819
G 353 50.71% 33.93 68.27% 0.451 1.1765 -0.001
H 398 44.72% 33.85 73.12% -0.605 0.0856 0.004
East 178 52.25% 43.55 74.16% 0.34 0.9621 1.232
Northeast 82 51.22% 45.29 78.05% 0.151 0.8326 0.655
Northwest 66 51.52% 40.88 72.73% 0.229 1.2956 -0.438
Southeast 59 57.63% 39.22 66.1% -0.249 0.4788 -0.391
Southwest 50 62.0% 32.68 62.0% -0.095 0.8753 -0.198
West 154 56.49% 38.77 67.53% 0.046 1.049 -0.636

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 15 40.0% 32.0 86.67% 0.266 0.4803
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 16.22% 43.82 94.74% -0.253 -0.3461
Start of Game Growth 75 28.38% 39.05 82.67% 0.091 -0.6168
Unlimited Undo 127 57.94% 34.18 70.08% -0.277 -0.9763 -0.401
Using Tokens but Not Events 263 24.81% 34.23 87.07% 0.4 0.3546 -0.155

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 355 22.6 32.11%
II 1171 31.02 71.05%
III 942 34.59 86.2%
IV 371 37.83 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.186 Win Model: 0.143
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1998 47.02% 34.2 75.83%
2 586 48.81% 34.8 70.31%
3 163 44.17% 36.31 77.91%
4 85 37.65% 34.4 81.18%
6 7 28.57% 33.0 85.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 113
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 806
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 829
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 368
Lose: Invader deck ran out 119
Lose: Adversary condition 152
Win: Sacrifice victory 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 419
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)