Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 73 38.36% 35.99 0.878 78.08% 0.031 0.5823
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 31 58.06% 37.68 -6.129 67.74% -1.416 -0.5387
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 26 80.77% 41.58 -0.756 57.69% -0.487 0.6318
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 39.0 -4.765 57.14% -0.492 1.0391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12 83.33% 35.58 -2.651 25.0% -0.826 0.7611
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 100.0% 37.75 5.537 25.0% -0.506 1.0571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 88.89% 35.19 0.0 18.52%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 93 37.63% 32.08 -0.524 75.27% -0.462 -0.2177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 86 39.53% 38.99 0.081 86.05% -0.345 -0.4719
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 48 58.33% 47.35 5.759 83.33% 0.292 0.4079
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 39 69.23% 43.97 11.09 56.41% 0.065 0.4391
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 20 70.0% 44.5 7.411 50.0% -0.152 0.3141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 25.0% 63.5 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 87.5% 41.69 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 83 40.96% 35.45 -1.062 79.52% -0.132 0.3845
The Kingdom of England 1 3 57 54.39% 35.68 2.996 61.4% 0.187 0.7962
The Kingdom of England 2 4 29 79.31% 33.52 7.482 48.28% 0.112 1.2393
The Kingdom of England 3 6 18 66.67% 40.78 6.337 38.89% -0.219 1.5243
The Kingdom of England 4 7 7 100.0% 39.57 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 45.8 9.991 40.0% 0.113 1.8509
The Kingdom of England 6 11 40 70.0% 46.75 0.0 35.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 50.0% 32.7 -0.7 65.0% 0.196 1.0986
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 51 56.86% 33.08 -2.688 52.94% -0.378 0.5125
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 85 68.24% 35.85 1.325 38.82% -0.675 1.7275
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 19 57.89% 51.74 11.978 63.16% 0.045 2.4292
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 41.67% 41.0 7.501 33.33% -0.421 2.0542
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 57.14% 54.0 7.866 57.14% -0.662 1.4161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 22 72.73% 58.55 9.924 50.0% -0.304 2.0635
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 66.67% 25.67 -2.171 33.33% -0.231 -0.3552
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 14 64.29% 38.36 2.513 50.0% -0.157 0.6878
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 21 66.67% 23.29 -3.077 0.0% -1.579 -0.7504
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 100.0% 37.67 1.58 33.33% -0.644 0.5919
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 83.33% 31.5 -0.166 0.0% -0.88 0.5511
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 31.0 -3.707 0.0% -0.382 1.3165
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 57 38.6% 33.79 2.593 80.7% 0.171 0.3377
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 63 57.14% 35.81 3.679 74.6% 0.567 0.3433
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 62 64.52% 36.66 1.584 69.35% -0.139 0.3143
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 45 62.22% 37.82 5.813 51.11% -0.257 0.053
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 16 68.75% 43.31 0.0 56.25%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12 75.0% 38.58 -4.906 41.67% -1.158 -0.177
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 95.24% 46.24 0.0 47.62%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 66 36.36% 36.3 0.756 81.82% -0.286 -0.3429
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 50 74.0% 33.84 0.05 50.0% -0.459 0.3152
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 38 68.42% 38.84 4.221 57.89% -0.527 0.1841
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 60.0% 51.27 13.475 66.67% 0.085 1.4232
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 50.0% 53.0 -9.062 70.0% -0.365 1.0196
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 35.0 3.156 0.0% -0.27 1.6676
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 54.75 0.0 25.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1700 46.03 33.43 76.88% 0.82 1.8358 0.21
1 Thematic 190 54.74 40.09 66.84% -0.517 0.6556 0.077
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 40.5 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 300 47.33 34.15 71.0% 0.207 0.9584 -0.063
2 Coastline 76 42.11 32.67 77.63% 0.309 0.9116 -0.118
2 Fragment 11 54.55 25.09 45.45% -0.498 -0.0505
2 Heart 2 100.0 15.0 0.0% -0.429 0.1095
2 Opposite Shores 109 53.21 35.86 64.22% -0.247 0.7454 -1.125
2 Thematic 57 50.88 41.18 70.18% 0.165 0.8637 0.101
2 Top to Top 12 33.33 41.42 91.67% 0.278 0.7883 0.183
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 87.0 100.0% 0.208
3 Coastline 3 66.67 43.0 100.0%
3 Other 2 100.0 26.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 147 42.18 34.85 76.87% -0.003 0.5923 0.451
3 Thematic 12 83.33 51.42 75.0% -0.006 -0.0438 0.057
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 66.67%
4 Thematic 7 28.57 43.43 85.71% -0.055
4 Trapezoid (Default) 69 40.58 32.9 78.26% -0.099 -0.1258 -0.065
5 Other 2 0.0 52.0 100.0% 0.151
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 3 33.33 33.33 100.0% 0.041 -0.2376
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 32.33 66.67%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 105 27.57 48.57% -0.821 1.0823 -1.345
Aid From Lesser Spirits 64 37.61 68.75% -0.43 1.3004 1.155
All Things Weaken 98 28.02 50.0% -1.166 0.8192 -0.126
Back Against the Wall 78 31.04 44.87% -1.056 0.7602 0.067
Disintegrating Ecosystem 88 27.53 46.59% -0.28 1.7702 -0.799
Downward Spiral 109 28.51 49.54% -0.452 1.5407 -0.489
Erosion of Will 90 28.72 45.56% -1.069 1.0142 -0.103
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 31 34.94 93.55% 0.115 0.5565
Memory Fades to Dust 92 29.58 56.52% -0.365 1.7192 -0.343
Power Corrodes the Spirit 103 29.61 58.25% -0.49 1.4486 -0.976
Promising Farmlands 87 30.09 52.87% -0.617 1.4287 -0.575
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 37.5 95.45% 0.401
Thriving Communities 95 25.69 43.16% -1.965 0.0188 -1.139
Unnatural Proliferation 121 30.08 57.02% -0.099 1.8655 -0.105
Untended Land Crumbles 88 28.41 55.68% -1.055 0.9382 -0.156

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 489 43.35% 34.0 79.55% 0.389 1.1866 0.113
B 478 48.01% 34.03 75.94% -0.313 0.43 0.1
C 532 45.11% 34.02 74.25% -0.112 0.4568 0.071
D 443 43.79% 33.02 76.3% 0.193 0.9887 -0.57
E 453 43.49% 34.24 77.26% -0.121 0.5265 -0.217
F 390 45.64% 34.36 75.38% 0.587 1.3109 0.897
G 337 50.15% 33.71 67.36% -0.915 -0.1836 -0.026
H 386 45.08% 33.87 73.06% -0.05 0.6621 0.068
East 169 52.66% 43.37 73.37% 0.335 1.1041 1.218
Northeast 79 53.16% 45.2 77.22% 0.338 1.1982 0.655
Northwest 62 53.23% 40.27 70.97% -0.359 0.7178 -0.455
Southeast 54 55.56% 38.41 64.81% -0.285 0.4208 -0.394
Southwest 48 62.5% 32.27 60.42% -0.628 0.4969 -0.16
West 148 57.43% 38.41 66.22% 0.64 1.5943 -0.633

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.056 2.1853
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 42.86% 31.71 85.71% 0.239 0.4143
Skip Initial Invader Actions 35 14.71% 44.46 97.14% 0.567 0.4248
Start of Game Growth 70 28.99% 38.71 82.86% -0.925 -1.6854
Unlimited Undo 123 57.38% 34.44 70.73% -0.093 -0.6968 -0.358
Using Tokens but Not Events 254 23.32% 34.24 86.61% 0.222 0.0657 -0.154

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 341 22.56 31.67%
II 1113 30.98 71.16%
III 903 34.53 85.94%
IV 357 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.706 Win Model: -0.104
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1907 47.06% 34.19 75.77%
2 561 48.48% 34.74 70.23%
3 158 44.3% 36.11 77.85%
4 81 37.04% 34.44 80.25%
6 7 28.57% 33.0 85.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 107
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 771
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 790
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 354
Lose: Invader deck ran out 114
Lose: Adversary condition 148
Win: Sacrifice victory 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 400
Lose: Spirit destroyed 19

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)