Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 35 34.29% 35.03 0.559 74.29% -0.632 -0.3486
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 11 63.64% 38.82 3.131 72.73% -0.251 0.1597
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 11 63.64% 44.45 5.398 63.64% -0.818 0.0588
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 60.0% 40.4 4.308 60.0% -0.307 0.939
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4 75.0% 33.0 1.461 25.0% -0.779 0.723
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 23.67 -4.066 0.0% -1.263 0.6908
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 51.0 9.632 50.0% -0.307 1.7356
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 46 39.13% 32.2 -0.646 80.43% -0.228 -0.1858
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 39 35.9% 41.56 3.588 97.44% 1.208 1.1894
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 22 59.09% 47.77 7.099 86.36% 0.212 0.2247
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 22 72.73% 39.86 3.486 50.0% -1.243 -0.9551
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8 75.0% 44.88 6.132 50.0% -0.613 -0.246
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 59.0 11.638 66.67% -0.255 0.5716
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12 91.67% 42.25 4.576 25.0% -1.151 0.0873
The Kingdom of England 0 1 40 47.5% 32.35 -0.394 77.5% -0.215 0.1167
The Kingdom of England 1 3 26 57.69% 34.81 1.073 61.54% -0.733 -0.2194
The Kingdom of England 2 4 21 80.95% 34.14 0.508 52.38% -0.946 0.0221
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 50.0% 45.0 4.633 50.0% -0.951 0.6279
The Kingdom of England 4 7 6 100.0% 36.0 2.682 33.33% -0.835 0.6633
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 29.0 -1.255 0.0% -0.565 1.5085
The Kingdom of England 6 11 27 70.37% 52.52 8.537 48.15% -1.728 0.5202
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 30 53.33% 33.1 -0.102 66.67% -0.601 -0.0876
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 30 50.0% 35.13 0.932 60.0% -0.864 0.0351
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 30 70.0% 38.93 3.778 53.33% -0.965 1.1782
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 50.0% 46.3 6.846 50.0% -1.272 0.9246
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 66.67% 32.17 0.999 16.67% -1.362 0.7962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 61.75 12.805 75.0% -0.587 1.23
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 81.82% 56.18 9.374 45.45% -1.295 0.8025
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 20 35.0% 33.4 -0.088 85.0% 0.063 0.1487
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 23 60.87% 32.04 -1.237 65.22% -0.796 -0.7626
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 25 68.0% 36.52 2.097 76.0% -0.051 0.1837
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 22 63.64% 37.36 2.66 50.0% -0.969 -0.6821
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 71.43% 48.71 6.819 71.43% -0.01 0.7732
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 100.0% 44.67 7.115 66.67% -0.067 1.0993
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 88.89% 56.67 11.951 77.78% 0.203 1.3274
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 32 34.38% 32.56 -0.76 81.25% -0.435 -0.537
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 66.67% 37.07 2.221 66.67% -0.169 0.6104
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 68.75% 39.19 2.524 62.5% -0.732 -0.3127
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 75.0% 43.63 4.961 50.0% -1.131 0.1223
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 33.33% 65.33 14.686 100.0% 0.166 1.2826
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 56.33 12.927 33.33% -0.352 1.5261

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 852 44.25 34.02 -0.22 81.1% 0.651 0.8234
1 Thematic 94 52.13 38.6 1.007 65.96% -0.05 0.3123
2 Archipelago 1 100.0 27.0 -0.437 0.0% -0.17 0.0571
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 141 48.23 34.1 -0.48 75.18% 0.032 0.0836
2 Coastline 55 41.82 33.95 -0.306 80.0% 0.176 0.1829
2 Fragment 8 50.0 26.5 -3.411 50.0% -0.671 -0.4149
2 Opposite Shores 65 52.31 37.85 0.779 67.69% 0.013 0.104
2 Thematic 18 61.11 38.78 0.832 72.22% -0.148 -0.1899
2 Top to Top 10 40.0 38.7 1.126 90.0% 0.253 0.2223
3 Coastline 3 66.67 43.0 4.066 100.0% 0.492 0.2941
3 Round (Default) 78 42.31 33.0 -0.567 78.21% -0.257 -0.3309
3 Thematic 6 83.33 55.67 5.217 66.67% -0.113 -0.5145
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 -1.783 66.67% -0.436 -0.5502
4 Thematic 3 33.33 45.0 2.58 100.0% 0.267 -0.8178
4 Trapezoid (Default) 45 40.0 34.49 -0.132 84.44% -0.238 -0.3241
5 Other 2 0.0 52.0 7.9 100.0% 0.215 -0.3885

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 57 29.07 -3.672 52.63% -1.844 0.2289
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36 42.81 2.51 83.33% -0.355 1.5635
All Things Weaken 48 29.9 -3.33 62.5% -1.618 0.5521
Back Against the Wall 43 31.63 -3.223 46.51% -2.154 -0.0631
Disintegrating Ecosystem 43 25.72 -5.358 48.84% -2.056 0.1689
Downward Spiral 49 27.22 -4.538 51.02% -2.058 -0.0355
Erosion of Will 43 29.26 -3.975 44.19% -2.092 0.1176
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 33.76 -0.926 94.12% 0.215 0.9012
Memory Fades to Dust 37 30.46 -2.75 67.57% -1.578 0.6404
Power Corrodes the Spirit 55 27.02 -4.666 52.73% -2.169 -0.1452
Promising Farmlands 41 28.83 -3.887 58.54% -1.711 0.5029
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 38.53 0.534 94.12% 0.112 0.5218
Thriving Communities 50 26.2 -4.886 56.0% -2.123 -0.0287
Unnatural Proliferation 54 29.96 -3.046 55.56% -1.815 0.2713
Untended Land Crumbles 41 31.59 -2.5 60.98% -1.452 0.6542

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 288 43.4% 34.01 -0.242 80.9% 0.001 -0.7589
B 245 44.9% 33.76 -0.481 77.14% -0.22 -1.077
C 274 40.51% 34.76 0.193 80.66% -0.044 -1.1327
D 250 42.0% 33.13 -0.653 78.4% -0.327 -1.1771
E 244 42.62% 35.03 0.173 82.79% 0.153 -0.8119
F 194 51.55% 34.16 -0.214 73.71% -0.235 -1.1491
G 161 49.07% 35.14 0.085 72.67% -0.331 -1.2359
H 201 45.77% 34.84 0.093 82.59% 0.004 -0.9101
East 32 53.13% 45.91 3.598 71.88% -0.037 -0.6866
Northeast 29 58.62% 44.07 2.834 72.41% 0.465 -0.1342
Northwest 26 50.0% 41.77 2.486 80.77% 0.378 -0.2917
Southeast 21 57.14% 36.57 -0.344 66.67% -0.153 -0.8591
Southwest 19 57.89% 31.58 -2.239 68.42% 0.174 -0.0994
West 33 60.61% 41.36 1.083 60.61% -0.444 -0.8422

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 32.4 -1.357 80.0% -0.206 0.0097
Skip Initial Invader Actions 23 13.04% 45.35 3.621 100.0% 0.54 -0.1471
Start of Game Growth 32 15.63% 42.63 2.716 100.0% 1.042 0.5719
Unlimited Undo 48 52.08% 36.65 0.427 85.42% 0.227 -0.1933
Using Tokens but Not Events 135 23.7% 34.62 -0.105 88.89% 0.178 0.1256

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 144 22.35 37.5%
II 582 30.84 74.4%
III 477 34.35 87.63%
IV 181 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.039 Win Model: 0.381
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 949 44.99% 34.47 79.56%
2 297 49.16% 35.17 73.4%
3 87 44.83% 34.62 79.31%
4 51 37.25% 35.78 86.27%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 54
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 416
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 431
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 180
Lose: Invader deck ran out 52
Lose: Adversary condition 62
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 174
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)