Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 60 13.33% 18.12 1.467 33.33% -0.141 0.1879
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 34 17.65% 18.97 -8.161 38.24% -0.473 -0.4573
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 18 27.78% 16.89 8.515 33.33% 0.187 0.5628
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 13 23.08% 20.46 0.0 30.77%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 15 40.0% 17.13 4.522 20.0% -0.068 0.702
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 33.33% 8.33 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 27.67 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 222 30.63% 22.52 1.528 45.05% -0.236 0.3472
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 149 36.91% 23.78 0.631 44.3% -0.115 -0.1575
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 109 54.13% 24.79 -3.873 34.86% -0.698 -0.1129
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 39 53.85% 29.33 21.154 41.03% 0.469 1.2697
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 60.0% 24.12 0.0 20.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 64.29% 31.86 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 36 77.78% 27.94 -14.106 13.89% -0.467 1.2657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 328 29.88% 24.27 0.438 56.71% -0.016 0.2693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 277 35.38% 26.83 -4.143 57.4% -0.234 -0.1834
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 159 49.06% 34.4 4.116 59.12% -0.053 -0.0149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 146 60.96% 37.41 8.812 50.0% 0.24 0.5626
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 59 52.54% 36.42 14.013 47.46% 0.332 0.5175
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 13 46.15% 38.38 0.0 38.46%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 53.85% 31.74 -10.801 20.51% -0.348 0.9834
The Kingdom of England 0 1 314 28.03% 20.84 -5.47 46.5% -0.715 -0.4549
The Kingdom of England 1 3 211 39.34% 26.29 8.911 44.08% 0.756 1.0335
The Kingdom of England 2 4 107 43.93% 21.49 9.974 32.71% 0.494 0.9854
The Kingdom of England 3 6 69 46.38% 23.36 -13.711 23.19% -0.728 0.569
The Kingdom of England 4 7 50 44.0% 24.48 -10.952 28.0% -0.341 0.7449
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 70.83% 26.29 0.0 16.67%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 65 54.69% 35.08 -0.757 24.62% -0.696 1.2383
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 198 34.34% 23.92 0.368 46.97% 0.023 0.3009
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 172 40.12% 24.31 -5.578 41.86% -0.867 -0.0628
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 181 49.72% 28.66 -0.418 30.39% -0.253 0.672
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 55 41.82% 34.78 -8.863 40.0% -0.452 0.8021
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 39 33.33% 27.0 12.557 20.51% -0.179 1.1508
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 20 45.0% 34.45 0.0 35.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 69 62.32% 41.25 13.676 24.64% 0.021 1.3062
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 171 17.54% 17.36 -10.291 39.77% -0.991 -0.9384
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 125 37.6% 22.44 1.42 36.0% 0.119 0.583
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 75 42.67% 17.87 -4.877 14.67% -0.805 -0.2436
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 45 37.78% 28.0 8.142 33.33% 0.31 0.4039
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 45 31.11% 17.31 0.0 15.56%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 44 65.91% 21.45 -13.285 18.18% -0.321 0.2886
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 28 57.14% 40.39 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 250 28.0% 18.74 -2.57 43.6% -0.227 0.031
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 220 37.27% 22.57 -3.334 45.91% -0.591 -0.4668
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 240 46.25% 25.51 4.922 48.33% 0.418 0.6364
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 113 51.33% 29.85 -13.028 44.25% -0.431 -0.1633
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 49 53.06% 30.24 0.0 38.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 50 50.0% 25.8 -8.678 30.0% -0.304 0.3395
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 95 61.05% 28.6 12.845 28.42% 0.43 1.0975
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 300 27.0% 19.69 -0.707 44.0% -0.101 0.2776
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 174 41.38% 19.76 -9.612 33.33% -0.652 0.0886
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 111 50.45% 29.15 2.274 44.14% 0.253 0.6436
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 60 43.33% 28.92 0.845 35.0% -0.265 0.561
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 53 49.06% 24.3 0.0 26.42%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 28 60.71% 32.54 0.148 25.0% -0.595 1.2823
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 17 50.0% 30.82 0.0 17.65%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5020 37.53 25.76 58.15% -0.024 0.3687 0.148
1 Thematic 730 36.58 25.39 42.33% -0.029 0.7081 0.081
2 Archipelago 12 33.33 27.58 50.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 977 38.19 24.51 50.15% -0.256 0.0071 -0.037
2 Coastline 183 39.89 28.35 65.03% 0.35 0.4461
2 Fragment 26 50.0 22.96 42.31%
2 Heart 6 66.67 40.83 66.67% 0.463
2 Opposite Shores 263 47.53 29.36 57.41% -0.819 -0.6079 -0.204
2 Thematic 273 28.21 20.28 35.9% 0.013 0.5698 -0.767
2 Top to Top 28 53.57 27.36 57.14%
3 Archipelago 3 66.67 49.0 66.67%
3 Coastline 8 37.5 36.75 100.0%
3 Other 7 71.43 19.43 57.14%
3 Round (Default) 447 39.01 28.51 60.63% 0.688 0.9008 0.111
3 Thematic 52 44.23 23.1 30.77% -0.55 -0.7336 -0.095
4 Archipelago 5 20.0 32.8 80.0% 0.187 -0.4455
4 Leaf 5 80.0 44.6 100.0% 0.465 0.1914
4 Other 4 25.0 22.5 50.0%
4 Snake 3 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 27 29.63 26.74 44.44%
4 Trapezoid (Default) 170 34.91 23.77 54.12% 0.956 1.22 -0.237
5 Other 18 16.67 22.39 38.89%
5 Thematic 6 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Other 15 26.67 9.73 26.67% -0.976 -0.9753
6 Star 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 14 28.57 22.36 42.86% -0.069
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 26.67 14.8 26.67%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.074

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 215 27.4 47.91% -0.477 -0.4047 -0.385
Aid From Lesser Spirits 149 31.54 52.35% -0.59 -0.6371 0.35
All Things Weaken 220 28.06 49.55% -0.644 -0.2756 -0.32
Attenuated Essence 65 24.86 47.69% 0.328 0.3559 0.121
Back Against the Wall 151 31.82 49.67% 0.568 0.4874 0.839
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 62 24.13 48.39% 0.149 0.3518
Burn Brightest Before the End 45 30.29 53.33% -0.149 -0.0485 1.264
Disintegrating Ecosystem 176 25.15 43.75% 0.038 0.4004 -0.165
Downward Spiral 221 28.15 51.58% -0.238 -0.0354 0.233
Erosion of Will 195 26.75 42.56% -0.162 0.164 0.659
Intensifying Exploitation 60 23.8 45.0% 0.448 0.7659 -0.04
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 78 31.08 75.64% 0.239 -0.2801 -0.14
Memory Fades to Dust 229 27.56 50.22% 0.505 0.7811 -0.284
Power Corrodes the Spirit 231 26.59 52.38% -0.342 -0.1437 -0.031
Promising Farmlands 198 27.66 51.01% 0.213 0.5844 0.88
Shattered Fragments of Power 50 28.0 42.0% 0.397
Slow Dissolution of Will 66 29.39 50.0% -0.361 0.0152 0.013
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 54 33.72 81.48% -0.07
The Border of Life and Death 16 28.19 62.5%
Thriving Communities 200 24.64 39.5% -0.234 -0.0127 -0.063
Thriving Crops 30 26.87 56.67% -0.111
Unnatural Proliferation 209 30.64 54.07% -0.487 -0.39 0.238
Untended Land Crumbles 209 26.06 49.76% 0.271 0.47 -0.107

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1500 35.47% 25.72 58.07% 0.285 1.1925 -1.046
B 1452 41.82% 25.98 55.44% 0.389 1.219 0.324
C 1553 37.96% 25.97 57.12% -0.348 0.404 -0.062
D 1275 37.06% 25.29 56.86% 0.327 1.198 -0.223
E 1312 37.4% 25.32 54.88% 0.353 1.0558 0.193
F 1211 38.6% 27.07 56.98% -0.149 0.6626 -0.159
G 1072 39.5% 25.26 53.45% 0.271 1.092 0.208
H 1058 36.77% 26.24 57.18% 0.039 0.7968 0.225
East 655 32.82% 26.07 43.05% -0.556 0.3643 -0.402
Northeast 286 38.11% 26.48 43.36% -0.411 0.313 -0.214
Northwest 286 38.11% 23.76 39.86% -0.0 0.9835 -0.508
Southeast 227 29.96% 22.77 39.21% -0.136 0.716 -0.103
Southwest 240 30.0% 16.13 32.5% -0.42 0.8563 -0.721
West 657 35.62% 20.92 36.23% -0.129 0.5622 -0.202

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 27.8 50.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 77 30.26% 19.34 48.05%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 106 11.11% 33.11 68.87% -0.158 -0.8812
Start of Game Growth 193 18.28% 34.49 74.61% -0.41 -0.8975 0.51
Unlimited Undo 574 27.72% 19.61 38.68% -1.026 -0.9447 0.03
Using Tokens but Not Events 700 25.62% 26.38 63.43% 0.217 0.1724 -0.464

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2765 12.37 8.61%
II 2703 29.93 65.41%
III 2096 34.92 86.02%
IV 760 38.86 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.073 Win Model: 0.003
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5926 37.07% 25.33 55.05%
2 1627 40.46% 26.47 53.84%
3 495 39.07% 28.03 58.99%
4 211 33.81% 25.77 57.35%
5 19 5.26% 11.11 15.79%
6 46 26.09% 15.48 32.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 237
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1790
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1756
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 755
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2222
Lose: Invader deck ran out 295
Lose: Adversary condition 313
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Blight pool ran out 876
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-25 23:57:52 (Pacific Time)