Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 28 32.14% 36.46 1.245 78.57% -0.409 -0.131
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 55.56% 37.44 2.078 66.67% -0.48 -0.0863
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 55.56% 44.56 5.313 66.67% -0.765 0.1127
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 60.0% 40.4 4.32 60.0% -0.215 1.0365
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 46.5 6.309 50.0% -0.374 1.147
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 23.67 -4.033 0.0% -1.274 0.7033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 67.0 16.951 100.0% 0.106 2.1559
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 40 37.5% 32.67 -0.512 80.0% -0.238 -0.1977
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 30 36.67% 41.33 3.699 96.67% 0.987 0.9583
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 18 55.56% 45.94 6.025 83.33% -0.063 -0.0582
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 75.0% 37.95 2.532 45.0% -1.439 -1.1507
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 83.33% 43.5 5.751 50.0% -0.408 -0.0405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 74.0 18.568 100.0% 0.107 0.9359
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 90.91% 43.09 5.179 27.27% -1.055 0.1865
The Kingdom of England 0 1 32 53.13% 32.03 -0.561 75.0% -0.288 0.0448
The Kingdom of England 1 3 21 47.62% 37.67 2.349 71.43% -0.393 0.1113
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11 90.91% 34.45 0.728 54.55% -0.637 0.3308
The Kingdom of England 3 6 6 33.33% 44.83 3.952 50.0% -1.024 0.5538
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 100.0% 61.5 14.522 100.0% 0.262 1.7598
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 29.0 -0.518 0.0% -0.438 1.6292
The Kingdom of England 6 11 22 68.18% 57.77 10.809 59.09% -1.275 0.9795
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 22 59.09% 30.27 -1.199 59.09% -0.761 -0.2462
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 20 55.0% 33.25 0.103 55.0% -1.101 -0.2052
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 23 60.87% 39.22 3.762 52.17% -0.925 1.2121
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 71.43% 49.43 9.104 57.14% -0.627 1.558
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 66.67% 32.17 1.206 16.67% -1.32 0.8266
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 0.0% 55.0 9.991 50.0% -0.766 1.0538
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 5 80.0% 77.0 17.742 80.0% 0.026 2.1324
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 14 42.86% 32.29 -0.964 78.57% -0.247 -0.1618
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 18 55.56% 31.22 -1.889 61.11% -0.986 -0.9649
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 18 72.22% 36.67 2.128 72.22% -0.242 -0.01
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19 57.89% 40.58 4.103 57.89% -0.704 -0.418
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 60.0% 60.2 11.542 100.0% 0.709 1.4861
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 100.0% 44.67 7.117 66.67% -0.093 1.0644
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 85.71% 59.86 12.999 85.71% 0.289 1.4209
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 25 32.0% 32.72 -0.74 80.0% -0.414 -0.5199
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 6 50.0% 41.5 4.404 83.33% 0.404 1.1469
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 69.23% 38.23 2.231 61.54% -0.601 -0.1691
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 66.67% 43.5 5.136 50.0% -0.973 0.2757
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 62.5 13.273 100.0% 0.187 1.3135

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 692 43.21 34.1 -0.346 81.65% 0.356 0.6891
1 Thematic 64 46.88 40.2 1.666 70.31% -0.06 0.4382
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 111 49.55 34.2 -0.548 73.87% -0.172 0.0284
2 Coastline 43 32.56 34.6 -0.407 81.4% -0.147 0.0077
2 Fragment 8 50.0 26.5 -3.276 50.0% -0.634 -0.2383
2 Opposite Shores 46 43.48 37.04 1.035 71.74% 0.085 0.3137
2 Thematic 15 53.33 40.4 1.184 73.33% -0.148 -0.0868
2 Top to Top 9 33.33 39.78 1.978 100.0% 0.584 0.7158
3 Coastline 3 66.67 43.0 3.303 100.0% 0.528 0.4897
3 Round (Default) 66 37.88 33.26 -0.368 80.3% -0.076 -0.0198
3 Thematic 6 83.33 55.67 3.065 66.67% -0.321 -0.6502
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 -1.522 66.67% -0.325 -0.2126
4 Thematic 3 33.33 45.0 1.645 100.0% 0.387 -0.6371
4 Trapezoid (Default) 27 29.63 34.26 -0.576 88.89% -0.207 -0.1721
5 Other 2 0.0 52.0 7.164 100.0% 0.165 -0.0898

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 39 27.33 -4.345 51.28% -1.766 0.3071
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 42.21 2.009 79.17% -0.441 1.4784
All Things Weaken 37 32.03 -2.602 64.86% -1.349 0.8096
Back Against the Wall 30 30.03 -4.137 46.67% -2.112 -0.018
Disintegrating Ecosystem 31 23.52 -6.37 45.16% -2.167 0.0572
Downward Spiral 35 27.51 -4.603 45.71% -2.084 -0.0625
Erosion of Will 35 30.63 -3.915 45.71% -2.03 0.1785
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14 32.64 -1.485 92.86% 0.137 0.8295
Memory Fades to Dust 30 30.8 -2.516 70.0% -1.433 0.7853
Power Corrodes the Spirit 41 27.41 -4.513 58.54% -1.857 0.1643
Promising Farmlands 32 28.41 -4.243 56.25% -1.765 0.45
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11 40.64 1.675 100.0% 0.554 0.9651
Thriving Communities 41 26.61 -4.534 60.98% -1.885 0.2079
Unnatural Proliferation 42 29.52 -3.165 59.52% -1.634 0.4557
Untended Land Crumbles 33 31.91 -2.437 63.64% -1.253 0.8532

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 231 40.69% 34.09 -0.247 82.68% 0.125 -0.987
B 193 41.97% 33.85 -0.478 78.76% -0.04 -1.248
C 214 35.51% 35.35 0.283 83.18% 0.032 -1.4072
D 193 40.41% 33.37 -0.63 78.24% -0.245 -1.4471
E 191 36.65% 34.81 0.046 83.77% 0.225 -1.087
F 155 50.32% 34.01 -0.278 73.55% -0.178 -1.4438
G 131 48.09% 34.63 -0.135 74.81% -0.178 -1.435
H 155 43.87% 34.81 0.111 83.23% 0.102 -1.1641
East 28 53.57% 46.61 3.319 71.43% -0.079 -1.0601
Northeast 24 58.33% 45.21 2.785 75.0% 0.37 -0.5609
Northwest 19 47.37% 41.0 2.011 78.95% 0.3 -0.6996
Southeast 17 47.06% 38.24 -0.392 70.59% -0.159 -1.1848
Southwest 13 53.85% 33.08 -1.929 69.23% 0.158 -0.4624
West 23 52.17% 46.87 2.124 73.91% -0.36 -1.085

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Not Using Events or Tokens 4 25.0% 30.75 -2.088 75.0% -0.154 0.0638
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 10.0% 45.4 3.229 100.0% 0.484 -0.2097
Start of Game Growth 27 14.81% 42.93 2.566 100.0% 0.95 0.4868
Unlimited Undo 37 48.65% 37.22 0.25 83.78% 0.048 -0.3727
Using Tokens but Not Events 116 21.55% 35.21 0.081 89.66% 0.215 0.163

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 115 22.34 43.48%
II 449 30.81 75.72%
III 383 34.31 87.21%
IV 151 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.017 Win Model: 0.096
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 758 43.4% 34.64 80.74%
2 230 45.22% 35.12 74.78%
3 77 42.86% 35.25 79.22%
4 33 27.27% 36.3 90.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 50
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 332
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 338
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 150
Lose: Invader deck ran out 43
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 135
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)