Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 127 33.07% 28.38 -2.874 59.06% -0.16 0.1866
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 73 47.95% 29.95 2.238 54.79% -0.028 0.2492
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 50 64.0% 33.38 -5.746 46.0% -0.938 -0.126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 13 61.54% 36.38 0.0 53.85%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 65.0% 25.45 0.456 20.0% -0.623 0.7595
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 88.89% 33.56 -12.472 22.22% -0.22 1.0778
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 89.66% 34.69 0.0 17.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 165 31.52% 27.95 -0.664 66.06% -0.143 0.0732
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 149 37.58% 31.19 -3.941 65.77% -0.816 -0.8859
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 80 53.75% 40.16 -4.384 68.75% -0.985 -1.068
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 95 61.05% 41.36 14.906 53.68% 0.942 1.1577
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 32 59.38% 39.63 -9.315 46.88% -0.349 -0.1247
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 9 44.44% 40.78 0.0 44.44%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 24 66.67% 36.17 23.773 25.0% 0.075 1.4318
The Kingdom of England 0 1 145 35.86% 28.35 -4.781 64.83% -0.832 -0.6224
The Kingdom of England 1 3 103 37.86% 30.57 -5.346 54.37% -0.892 -0.6044
The Kingdom of England 2 4 53 62.26% 26.15 -4.525 37.74% -1.201 -0.4674
The Kingdom of England 3 6 35 57.14% 27.69 0.492 25.71% -0.172 1.0464
The Kingdom of England 4 7 22 63.64% 29.14 2.211 36.36% -0.578 0.7022
The Kingdom of England 5 9 16 100.0% 36.63 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 53 55.77% 36.53 -8.083 26.42% -0.571 1.4234
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 113 40.71% 27.35 -0.336 53.1% -0.179 0.2342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 83 46.99% 29.22 0.851 49.4% -0.12 0.6869
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 123 57.72% 33.07 -0.515 35.77% -0.477 0.6266
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 38 47.37% 37.79 -1.343 39.47% -1.8 -0.4024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 44.44% 34.5 -4.607 22.22% -0.682 0.8318
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 11 72.73% 53.36 23.564 54.55% 0.216 1.0001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 29 68.97% 56.31 22.692 44.83% 0.274 1.751
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 49 22.45% 16.57 -4.303 34.69% -0.83 -0.6184
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 49 38.78% 21.9 -2.535 30.61% -0.612 -0.227
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 36 52.78% 25.86 -1.467 19.44% -0.431 -0.053
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 13 38.46% 31.85 -1.287 38.46% -0.632 -0.3595
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 12 33.33% 25.25 4.435 25.0% -0.056 0.805
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 22 72.73% 27.36 -8.128 18.18% -0.268 0.4272
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 10 70.0% 38.3 4.742 30.0% -0.785 0.3556
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 116 29.31% 23.83 -5.204 57.76% -0.753 -0.5571
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 108 44.44% 28.15 0.781 57.41% -0.279 -0.1834
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 109 55.05% 31.81 -0.868 61.47% -0.285 -0.1766
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 70 58.57% 37.49 9.893 52.86% 0.644 1.1114
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 25 60.0% 39.36 -8.333 52.0% -0.149 0.4705
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 20 60.0% 33.55 -10.984 40.0% -0.375 0.6112
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 55 61.82% 31.33 -8.963 29.09% -0.866 0.1321
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 120 34.17% 28.22 -5.621 63.33% -1.237 -1.1456
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 90 53.33% 24.16 -7.362 37.78% -1.396 -0.7357
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 62 62.9% 36.89 -0.129 54.84% -0.258 0.1365
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 23 60.87% 37.91 -5.62 47.83% -0.808 0.2237
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 26 57.69% 35.77 -0.424 42.31% -0.4 0.5586
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 60.0% 47.0 18.646 40.0% 0.295 2.0121
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 50.0% 39.36 2.364 27.27% -0.186 1.7959

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2780 41.77 29.86 67.37% -0.451 -0.2504 0.178
1 Thematic 355 44.23 31.23 52.11% 0.044 0.7639 0.528
2 Archipelago 6 33.33 13.5 16.67%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 524 45.23 29.55 60.5% -0.437 -0.4289 -0.289
2 Coastline 102 42.16 31.81 75.49% 0.455 0.2504 0.21
2 Fragment 15 46.67 19.4 33.33% -0.31 -0.5877
2 Heart 4 75.0 36.75 50.0%
2 Opposite Shores 149 49.66 33.93 65.1% -0.207 -0.1504 -0.584
2 Thematic 120 39.17 31.23 54.17% 0.277 0.7286 -0.512
2 Top to Top 20 50.0 32.0 70.0% 0.392 0.294 0.437
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 43.5 50.0% 0.174
3 Coastline 7 42.86 38.29 100.0% 0.423 -0.1435
3 Other 4 100.0 22.75 75.0% 0.841 0.8117
3 Round (Default) 223 42.34 31.62 68.16% 0.007 -0.2194 0.321
3 Thematic 32 56.25 31.09 40.63% -0.495 -0.298 -0.122
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 66.67% 0.437 -0.9199
4 Thematic 16 25.0 28.63 50.0% -0.094 -0.2928 -0.377
4 Trapezoid (Default) 97 38.54 29.94 70.1% -0.719 -0.9623 -0.265
5 Other 4 0.0 26.0 50.0% 0.068
5 Thematic 2 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.137 -0.6158 -0.247
6 Other 2 50.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 10 40.0 24.7 50.0% -0.004 0.7498 0.569
6 Two Centers (Default) 9 33.33 13.22 22.22% -0.113

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 140 28.97 49.29% 1.239 1.3984 -0.863
Aid From Lesser Spirits 101 32.91 57.43% -0.499 -0.5857 0.7
All Things Weaken 151 28.09 49.01% -0.031 0.3109 -0.008
Attenuated Essence 15 22.53 40.0% -0.239 -0.165 -0.238
Back Against the Wall 101 31.29 45.54% -0.308 -0.2329 0.247
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 15 21.2 40.0% 0.369 0.5603 0.075
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 25.78 55.56% 1.081 1.2047 0.179
Disintegrating Ecosystem 126 26.36 42.06% -0.028 0.3452 -0.168
Downward Spiral 148 28.53 50.0% -0.063 0.0733 -0.083
Erosion of Will 123 26.93 39.02% -1.095 -0.8 0.051
Intensifying Exploitation 12 25.0 50.0% 0.083 0.3216 -0.557
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 51 34.24 88.24% 0.129 -0.4034 0.489
Memory Fades to Dust 138 29.54 52.9% 0.739 1.0197 -0.245
Power Corrodes the Spirit 137 29.01 55.47% 0.024 0.1767 -0.41
Promising Farmlands 138 28.8 51.45% -0.417 -0.0709 -0.32
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 20.13 33.33% -0.44 -0.2456 -0.366
Slow Dissolution of Will 11 38.91 72.73% 0.437 0.8887 0.588
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 40 37.58 95.0% 0.678 -0.0622 0.906
The Border of Life and Death 5 25.0 60.0% 0.89 0.4566 -0.244
Thriving Communities 134 26.4 43.28% -0.636 -0.3373 -0.621
Thriving Crops 8 25.63 75.0% 0.397 0.2945
Unnatural Proliferation 163 30.44 54.6% 0.058 0.2031 0.432
Untended Land Crumbles 130 28.32 56.92% 0.179 0.4785 0.402

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 798 39.4% 30.37 69.42% 0.421 1.4149 0.357
B 763 45.73% 30.21 66.45% 0.381 1.2993 0.024
C 857 42.46% 30.0 65.34% 0.038 0.7804 0.119
D 681 42.71% 29.52 67.11% -0.036 0.9155 -0.59
E 739 41.52% 30.26 66.85% 0.334 1.1146 0.006
F 648 43.12% 30.82 64.81% 0.678 1.5708 0.185
G 548 46.17% 29.44 60.04% -0.066 0.7889 -0.348
H 584 40.58% 29.89 64.73% 0.272 1.1198 0.06
East 337 41.25% 33.87 56.68% 0.36 1.1295 1.147
Northeast 152 46.71% 34.27 56.58% -0.139 0.6483 0.278
Northwest 137 47.45% 29.12 46.72% -1.147 -0.1634 -0.644
Southeast 115 40.0% 30.45 52.17% -0.245 0.63 -0.093
Southwest 107 42.06% 21.07 40.19% -0.13 1.0779 -0.373
West 307 45.28% 27.21 45.93% -0.676 0.2578 -0.505

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 34.4 60.0% -0.185 0.4446 0.391
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 35.48% 25.23 61.29% -0.493 0.013 0.151
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57 14.81% 42.75 89.47% -0.187 -0.8222 0.391
Start of Game Growth 112 22.02% 38.83 83.04% 1.479 1.089 0.542
Unlimited Undo 307 33.88% 23.82 46.58% -1.152 -1.1077 0.073
Using Tokens but Not Events 401 25.25% 30.16 74.06% -0.392 -0.4186 -0.875

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1032 17.67 15.41%
II 1660 30.7 68.19%
III 1305 34.75 85.82%
IV 493 38.22 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.307 Win Model: -0.215
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3185 41.99% 29.91 65.15%
2 908 46.04% 30.99 62.89%
3 256 42.75% 31.26 66.02%
4 116 34.78% 30.66 69.83%
5 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
6 21 38.1% 20.14 38.1%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 158
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1111
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1125
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 490
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 586
Lose: Invader deck ran out 183
Lose: Adversary condition 200
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Blight pool ran out 587
Lose: Spirit destroyed 30

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)