Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 100 37.0% 32.93 -3.993 69.0% -0.628 -0.4171
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 44 59.09% 36.59 0.071 65.91% -0.056 0.378
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 37 78.38% 38.97 -1.326 51.35% -0.757 -0.0247
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 58.33% 34.67 -1.89 50.0% -0.669 0.3893
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 14 78.57% 30.5 -13.799 21.43% -0.544 0.7499
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 8 100.0% 37.75 0.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 28 89.29% 34.96 0.0 17.86%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 128 35.16% 31.37 -1.029 73.44% -0.005 0.0926
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 119 41.18% 35.88 -5.092 77.31% -0.857 -0.9492
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 68 55.88% 42.31 -1.002 72.06% -0.515 -0.5779
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 77 62.34% 42.48 6.374 53.25% -0.542 -0.2807
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 29 62.07% 41.55 0.698 48.28% -0.29 -0.2274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 50.0% 50.17 -3.041 50.0% -0.82 -0.3756
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 21 66.67% 31.76 -10.288 19.05% -1.069 0.2134
The Kingdom of England 0 1 109 39.45% 34.13 -5.297 77.98% -0.871 -0.6956
The Kingdom of England 1 3 75 46.67% 35.37 1.49 61.33% 0.191 0.4056
The Kingdom of England 2 4 40 70.0% 30.48 -7.833 45.0% -1.162 -0.4083
The Kingdom of England 3 6 25 64.0% 34.08 -3.71 32.0% -0.51 0.6515
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 30.57 -7.047 35.71% -0.663 0.3518
The Kingdom of England 5 9 14 100.0% 39.93 4.945 28.57% -0.697 0.8456
The Kingdom of England 6 11 44 63.64% 43.25 -9.362 31.82% -0.61 1.4094
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 80 46.25% 32.14 -2.586 62.5% -0.652 -0.2989
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 64 51.56% 32.38 -1.196 53.13% -0.218 0.7514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 102 61.76% 36.0 4.275 40.2% -0.379 0.7092
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 28 50.0% 46.25 2.052 53.57% -0.266 1.1221
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 43.75% 37.13 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 70.0% 51.1 2.93 50.0% -0.38 0.5924
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 24 66.67% 55.21 -0.523 45.83% -0.519 0.8367
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 17 35.29% 21.47 -5.388 41.18% -1.003 -1.0899
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 26 50.0% 31.88 -3.737 42.31% -0.737 -0.3037
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 28 60.71% 26.93 2.258 14.29% 0.178 0.5821
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 57.14% 28.0 -11.852 28.57% -0.617 -0.2855
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 57.14% 32.29 3.983 28.57% 0.075 0.6384
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 12 83.33% 37.67 3.399 25.0% -0.232 0.5084
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 49.67 30.139 33.33% 0.6 1.8777
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 79 39.24% 30.89 -1.862 73.42% -0.156 -0.0062
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 85 50.59% 31.55 -4.631 64.71% -0.759 -0.7695
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 86 58.14% 35.26 -2.728 67.44% -0.272 -0.0399
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 59 59.32% 39.47 4.971 54.24% -0.14 0.206
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 19 68.42% 45.37 8.186 57.89% 0.102 0.719
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 15 66.67% 34.8 -6.766 40.0% -0.47 0.4777
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 29 82.76% 45.31 -2.134 48.28% -0.736 0.0687
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 90 36.67% 34.33 1.034 77.78% 0.061 0.1034
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 66 66.67% 30.82 -5.152 46.97% -0.581 0.0227
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 47 68.09% 40.13 4.016 61.7% 0.157 0.4496
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 60.0% 51.27 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 64.71% 48.94 12.005 58.82% 0.522 1.552
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 52.0 25.339 42.86% 0.405 1.8374
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 80.0% 43.8 -9.938 20.0% -0.255 1.7019

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2186 45.08 32.82 74.06% 0.549 0.7582 0.249
1 Thematic 250 51.6 37.27 62.0% -0.616 -0.0176 0.108
2 Archipelago 6 33.33 13.5 16.67% -0.618 -0.2615
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 413 46.0 32.21 66.34% 0.512 0.6723 -0.219
2 Coastline 91 40.66 32.21 76.92% -0.275 -0.2147 0.184
2 Fragment 11 54.55 25.09 45.45%
2 Heart 3 66.67 26.0 33.33%
2 Opposite Shores 124 50.81 34.93 65.32% 0.882 1.0157 -0.922
2 Thematic 87 43.68 37.98 65.52% -0.062 0.5746 -0.538
2 Top to Top 14 42.86 37.93 78.57% 0.393
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 87.0 100.0% 0.353
3 Coastline 3 66.67 43.0 100.0%
3 Other 2 100.0 26.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 184 44.81 33.59 72.83% 0.259 0.2175 0.079
3 Thematic 20 75.0 38.6 55.0% -0.132 -0.0958 0.016
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 30.0 66.67% -0.192 -1.0414
4 Thematic 13 23.08 33.62 61.54% 0.002 -0.0154 -0.044
4 Trapezoid (Default) 81 38.75 31.64 77.78% 0.303 0.1163 0.002
5 Other 3 0.0 34.67 66.67% -0.312 -0.8208 -0.025
6 Other 2 50.0 28.5 50.0%
6 Thematic 6 33.33 34.17 83.33% 0.082 0.4808 0.352
6 Two Centers (Default) 6 16.67 16.17 33.33% -0.37 -0.3269

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 120 28.21 49.17% 0.183 0.4544 -1.236
Aid From Lesser Spirits 83 35.78 63.86% 0.073 0.1117 0.587
All Things Weaken 119 28.75 50.42% 1.017 1.4775 0.068
Attenuated Essence 3 18.33 66.67% 0.25 0.4561
Back Against the Wall 91 31.27 46.15% 0.827 0.9887 0.226
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 11.67 33.33% -0.361 0.0531
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 5.0 0.0% -0.811 -0.5066
Disintegrating Ecosystem 109 27.38 44.04% -0.756 -0.2296 -0.537
Downward Spiral 127 28.97 50.39% -0.802 -0.4493 -0.316
Erosion of Will 115 27.9 41.74% 0.222 0.6306 -0.088
Intensifying Exploitation 5 28.0 40.0% -0.409 -0.0216 -0.529
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 34.5 89.13% 0.788 0.2623 0.48
Memory Fades to Dust 122 29.61 54.1% 0.235 0.7164 -0.446
Power Corrodes the Spirit 123 28.98 55.28% -0.49 -0.1857 -0.927
Promising Farmlands 114 28.87 50.88% -0.257 0.3293 -0.523
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 0.0 0.0% -0.618 -0.4397
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 49.0 50.0% -0.002 0.5314 0.206
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 35.62 94.12% 0.808 0.1304 0.488
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.335 -0.4646
Thriving Communities 117 26.74 43.59% -0.573 -0.0803 -0.999
Thriving Crops 1 37.0 100.0% 0.227 0.3147
Unnatural Proliferation 145 31.03 57.93% 0.47 0.7667 0.244
Untended Land Crumbles 115 28.91 57.39% 0.252 0.6095 0.183

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 637 40.72% 32.95 75.98% 0.205 1.0451 0.567
B 612 47.87% 32.63 71.41% -0.396 0.3827 0.158
C 685 44.66% 32.74 71.24% -0.072 0.582 0.253
D 551 42.0% 32.16 73.5% 0.036 0.8353 -0.442
E 598 43.22% 32.53 72.91% -0.17 0.4586 -0.117
F 499 46.39% 33.29 70.94% -0.185 0.5347 0.092
G 435 49.43% 31.99 64.37% -0.431 0.3109 -0.279
H 465 43.66% 32.77 71.18% -0.003 0.6454 0.066
East 241 47.3% 39.67 67.22% 0.168 0.772 1.425
Northeast 107 48.6% 41.24 70.09% 0.009 0.8895 0.49
Northwest 96 53.13% 36.58 61.46% -0.409 0.2636 -0.137
Southeast 82 50.0% 37.07 63.41% 0.673 1.3097 0.125
Southwest 74 47.3% 26.46 51.35% -0.754 0.4106 -0.501
West 212 51.89% 34.2 58.96% -0.323 0.6413 -0.386

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 26.0 66.67% -0.458 0.4255
Not Using Events or Tokens 20 40.0% 30.35 80.0% -0.688 -0.3564
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 14.89% 43.6 93.75% 0.842 0.3069
Start of Game Growth 87 25.58% 39.41 83.91% 0.942 0.6116
Unlimited Undo 185 46.74% 31.81 63.24% -1.313 -1.3354 -0.555
Using Tokens but Not Events 336 26.13% 32.87 81.85% 0.526 0.4721 -0.667

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 545 21.03 24.04%
II 1411 31.04 69.45%
III 1133 34.74 86.23%
IV 423 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.591 Win Model: -0.176
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2461 45.81% 33.32 72.65%
2 739 46.55% 33.1 66.85%
3 198 45.69% 34.1 73.23%
4 99 34.69% 32.48 76.77%
5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
6 14 28.57% 25.64 57.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 970
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 974
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 420
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 138
Lose: Invader deck ran out 156
Lose: Adversary condition 177
Win: Sacrifice victory 17
Lose: Blight pool ran out 504
Lose: Spirit destroyed 26

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)