Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 5 0.0% 7.0 -5.242 20.0% -0.388 -0.4815
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 2 0.0% 25.0 6.753 50.0% 0.13 -0.44
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 178 30.9% 23.87 0.578 47.75% -0.132 0.2603
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 119 39.5% 25.4 -0.218 47.9% -0.026 0.3982
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 80 55.0% 26.98 1.237 38.75% -0.176 0.3656
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 25 48.0% 26.88 1.433 36.0% -0.049 0.7297
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 40 60.0% 23.55 3.369 20.0% -0.145 1.4032
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 25.17 0.0 16.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 31 83.87% 32.45 0.0 16.13%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 245 31.02% 26.31 -0.359 61.63% -0.153 0.0331
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 227 34.36% 28.21 1.311 59.91% 0.21 0.2366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 134 50.75% 35.36 5.854 60.45% 0.274 0.4206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 118 57.63% 38.52 2.16 51.69% -0.031 0.232
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 54.17% 39.58 17.869 50.0% 0.385 0.6571
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 12 50.0% 35.25 3.129 33.33% -0.313 -0.0092
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 32 62.5% 36.41 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 232 30.6% 23.54 -2.467 53.02% -0.775 -0.3853
The Kingdom of England 1 3 162 39.51% 27.01 2.193 45.68% -0.137 0.4519
The Kingdom of England 2 4 78 51.28% 22.23 1.032 32.05% 0.018 0.6307
The Kingdom of England 3 6 52 51.92% 24.12 -9.905 25.0% -0.543 0.5852
The Kingdom of England 4 7 30 46.67% 24.7 9.965 30.0% 0.119 1.1189
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 76.19% 27.9 0.0 19.05%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 56 56.36% 35.55 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 163 35.58% 24.07 -2.421 47.24% -0.676 -0.1482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 144 40.97% 25.16 0.321 42.36% -0.599 0.2585
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 141 52.48% 30.7 3.201 34.04% 0.048 1.2783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 45 42.22% 34.84 -8.596 37.78% -0.423 0.8271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 30 33.33% 29.0 0.0 23.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 18 50.0% 36.67 0.0 38.89%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 55 69.09% 42.29 -0.208 25.45% -0.7 0.7709
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 117 21.37% 16.79 -2.784 36.75% -0.287 0.0615
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 91 38.46% 21.09 0.924 32.97% -0.018 0.2478
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 56 44.64% 20.07 -9.679 16.07% -0.532 -0.214
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 28 35.71% 31.43 12.159 39.29% 0.139 0.4248
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 28 35.71% 16.32 -3.429 14.29% -0.927 -0.1285
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 31 64.52% 20.32 -8.812 12.9% -0.488 0.0261
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 26 57.69% 40.65 13.707 42.31% -0.188 0.9593
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 193 30.57% 20.23 -2.504 47.67% -0.369 -0.118
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 171 38.01% 23.2 -4.251 47.37% -0.637 -0.4457
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 175 48.0% 25.5 0.789 47.43% -0.239 -0.0217
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 87 56.32% 34.15 -6.652 49.43% -0.28 0.1709
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 32 46.88% 32.5 -8.999 40.63% -0.654 0.0903
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 30 50.0% 31.5 11.135 40.0% 0.362 1.4307
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 77 62.34% 28.97 1.07 27.27% -0.391 0.6417
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 206 29.61% 22.08 -3.13 49.03% -0.261 -0.0146
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 138 42.75% 20.54 -3.823 33.33% -0.849 -0.0967
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 89 53.93% 30.4 -10.413 46.07% -0.768 -0.2828
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 39 51.28% 34.64 -7.813 43.59% -0.804 0.025
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 41 56.1% 29.2 -8.321 31.71% -0.192 0.7869
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 21 61.9% 35.9 4.464 28.57% -0.342 1.557
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 13 50.0% 35.77 0.0 23.08%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3873 38.37 27.21 61.55% 0.314 0.6871 0.203
1 Thematic 554 37.73 26.8 45.13% 0.266 0.9805 0.384
2 Archipelago 9 33.33 24.11 44.44%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 775 41.03 25.85 53.16% -0.07 0.0914 -0.381
2 Coastline 157 40.76 28.45 64.97% -0.053 -0.2461 -0.087
2 Fragment 23 56.52 22.43 39.13% -0.258 -0.3064
2 Heart 4 75.0 36.75 50.0%
2 Opposite Shores 211 44.55 29.94 60.66% 1.004 1.1366 -0.446
2 Thematic 201 34.83 22.85 39.8% -0.589 0.1308 -0.942
2 Top to Top 23 47.83 29.83 65.22% 0.505
3 Archipelago 3 66.67 49.0 66.67% 0.32
3 Coastline 8 37.5 36.75 100.0%
3 Other 5 80.0 18.2 60.0% -0.523 -1.3994
3 Round (Default) 338 38.87 29.66 63.31% 0.511 0.4881 0.366
3 Thematic 42 52.38 27.57 35.71% -0.224 -0.2164 -0.137
4 Archipelago 4 0.0 28.5 75.0%
4 Leaf 1 100.0 50.0 100.0%
4 Other 4 25.0 22.5 50.0% -0.047 -0.6148 0.874
4 Snake 3 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 20 30.0 28.25 45.0% -0.084 -0.0208 -0.417
4 Trapezoid (Default) 141 32.14 24.18 56.03% -0.578 -0.5726 -1.376
5 Other 15 13.33 25.2 46.67% 0.274 -0.0502 0.107
5 Thematic 6 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.071 -0.2137 -0.29
6 Other 3 66.67 29.67 66.67%
6 Star 1 0.0 31.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 12 33.33 26.08 50.0% 0.752
6 Two Centers (Default) 14 28.57 15.86 28.57% 0.11 0.5839 -0.132

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 180 28.25 49.44% 0.966 1.0375 -0.412
Aid From Lesser Spirits 124 31.84 54.84% 0.99
All Things Weaken 187 28.6 49.73% 0.437 0.6143 0.128
Attenuated Essence 32 23.03 43.75% -0.082 -0.0304 -0.333
Back Against the Wall 131 31.76 48.85% 0.841 0.8255 0.675
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 35 24.94 45.71% 0.208 0.3919 0.632
Burn Brightest Before the End 27 27.3 51.85% -0.273 -0.1863 0.043
Disintegrating Ecosystem 151 26.09 43.05% 0.75 1.0411 0.126
Downward Spiral 187 28.04 49.73% 0.906 1.0117 -0.037
Erosion of Will 157 26.57 40.13% -0.795 -0.6291 0.278
Intensifying Exploitation 34 24.59 50.0% -0.055 0.133 -0.128
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 64 32.72 81.25% -0.062 -0.4898 0.366
Memory Fades to Dust 179 28.13 50.28% -0.125 0.1101 -0.068
Power Corrodes the Spirit 185 27.32 54.59% 0.201 0.2967 -0.082
Promising Farmlands 162 28.57 50.62% 0.679 1.0432 0.065
Shattered Fragments of Power 31 28.87 48.39% -0.399 -0.3335 0.41
Slow Dissolution of Will 33 32.39 54.55% -0.347 0.116 0.071
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 50 34.84 84.0% 0.441 -0.1605 1.139
The Border of Life and Death 12 24.58 58.33% -0.226
Thriving Communities 168 25.18 40.48% -0.293 -0.0676 -0.203
Thriving Crops 19 23.63 57.89% -0.185 -0.4091 -0.188
Unnatural Proliferation 184 30.4 52.72% -0.021 0.1013 0.626
Untended Land Crumbles 166 27.1 53.61% -0.4 -0.1674 0.527

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1166 36.74% 27.42 62.01% -0.025 0.893 0.134
B 1139 41.51% 26.89 57.95% -0.381 0.4597 -0.157
C 1232 38.29% 27.51 60.71% 0.808 1.4915 -0.067
D 997 38.69% 26.49 59.58% 0.094 0.9362 -0.48
E 1023 38.1% 26.9 58.85% 0.091 0.7423 -0.241
F 946 39.79% 28.01 59.51% 0.258 1.0184 0.279
G 805 39.88% 26.75 56.52% 0.764 1.522 -0.316
H 823 37.18% 27.25 59.42% -0.556 0.1623 0.022
East 509 35.56% 28.03 46.37% -0.409 0.4043 1.006
Northeast 223 41.26% 28.0 45.29% -0.602 0.0655 0.421
Northwest 225 42.67% 25.74 42.67% 0.198 1.003 -0.264
Southeast 172 33.14% 25.27 43.02% -0.38 0.3256 -0.089
Southwest 161 34.16% 18.19 35.4% -0.325 1.0646 -0.504
West 492 39.43% 22.63 38.82% -0.756 0.0377 -1.09

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 34.4 60.0% 0.37
Not Using Events or Tokens 55 32.73% 20.96 50.91% 0.177 0.6623 0.181
Skip Initial Invader Actions 76 13.7% 38.2 80.26% 0.723 -0.0075 0.37
Start of Game Growth 159 18.59% 36.89 82.39% 0.723 0.2771 0.551
Unlimited Undo 435 28.7% 20.89 40.92% -1.576 -1.6096 0.124
Using Tokens but Not Events 578 24.43% 26.99 65.4% 1.073 0.9108 -0.425

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1934 14.25 10.75%
II 2186 30.3 66.33%
III 1699 34.84 85.7%
IV 633 38.61 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.495 Win Model: -0.023
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4545 38.15% 26.86 58.53%
2 1307 42.31% 27.42 56.31%
3 383 39.27% 29.26 61.36%
4 171 30.59% 26.06 58.48%
5 16 0.0% 11.63 18.75%
6 30 33.33% 21.83 43.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 207
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1445
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1441
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 630
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1452
Lose: Invader deck ran out 246
Lose: Adversary condition 247
Win: Sacrifice victory 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 723
Lose: Spirit destroyed 37

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)