Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 25.0% 34.13 75.0% 0.452 0.2655 0.108
Blitz 0 41 52.5% 28.66 51.22% -0.468 -0.3369 -0.41
Dahan Insurrection 4 28 21.43% 34.82 53.57% -0.154 -0.4094 0.198
Despicable Theft 2 14 57.14% 29.07 64.29% -0.344 0.1968 0.574
Elemental Invocation 1 25 28.0% 24.04 48.0% -1.185 -0.3289 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 495 27.88% 50.62 71.72% 1.27 0.4989 1.133
Powers Long Forgotten 1 19 47.37% 29.0 57.89% -0.518 0.4165 0.0
Rituals of Terror 3 15 40.0% 24.27 33.33% -0.768 -0.6721 -1.021
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 37.5% 11.33 22.22% -1.163 0.0338 -0.068
Second Wave 0 73 51.39% 25.0 63.01% -0.805 -0.7196 0.065
The Great River 3 10 50.0% 37.2 90.0% 0.283 1.6442 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 22 36.36% 34.14 86.36% 0.423 1.2112 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 7 0.0% 3.57 14.29% -0.577 0.4552 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4764 50.69% 32.17 61.08% -0.029 0.1619 0.357
1 Thematic 104 39.81% 38.2 61.54% 0.262 0.9075 -0.071
2 Archipelago 8 37.5% 22.25 50.0% -0.734 -0.3026 -0.71
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 871 52.36% 33.83 67.28% 0.212 0.2081 0.278
2 Coastline 115 46.96% 37.83 81.74% 0.951 1.0072 1.228
2 Fragment 25 44.0% 26.68 60.0% -1.292 -1.5582 0.497
2 Heart 15 60.0% 42.8 80.0% 0.089 0.0502 1.004
2 Opposite Shores 252 32.54% 24.7 66.67% -0.075 -0.0612 -0.615
2 Thematic 39 43.59% 31.28 51.28% -0.409 -0.2124 -0.558
2 Top to Top 33 63.64% 23.0 45.45% -0.776 -0.8744 -0.57
3 Archipelago 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4467 0.0
3 Coastline 8 25.0% 27.25 75.0% 0.615 -0.4094 -0.49
3 Other 17 29.41% 25.12 88.24% 0.658 0.2652 0.28
3 Round (Default) 518 42.17% 33.45 65.25% 0.255 -0.0801 -0.026
3 Thematic 5 0.0% 32.8 80.0% 0.099 -0.1856 0.0
4 Archipelago 9 33.33% 33.44 66.67% 1.28 1.1234 -0.35
4 Coastline 2 50.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.353 -0.5859 0.0
4 Leaf 5 40.0% 20.2 60.0% 0.0 -0.1481 0.0
4 Other 16 31.25% 31.63 87.5% 0.142 -1.1872 0.0
4 Thematic 11 54.55% 31.82 63.64% -0.03 -0.1091 0.54
4 Trapezoid (Default) 233 39.91% 36.59 75.11% 0.259 0.102 -0.453
5 Archipelago 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.409 0.2656 0.0
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.426 -0.4864 0.0
5 Other 19 15.79% 29.74 78.95% 0.259 -0.8152 -0.259
5 Thematic 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.499 -0.5057 0.0
6 Archipelago 2 0.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.109 -1.19 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0% 0.514 -0.2339 0.269
6 Other 14 50.0% 34.07 64.29% -0.275 -0.4784 0.458
6 Star 15 20.0% 30.2 80.0% -1.696 -1.5964 0.0
6 Thematic 71 31.88% 31.03 47.89% -0.555 0.0936 -1.204
6 Two Centers (Default) 40 30.0% 32.5 70.0% 0.823 0.4888 0.378
7 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.464 -0.0682 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 154 35.56 50.65% -0.073 0.0565 0.188
Aid From Lesser Spirits 131 41.27 63.36% 0.258 0.1393 0.91
All Things Weaken 202 34.24 53.47% 0.032 0.3394 0.076
Attenuated Essence 189 37.87 58.73% 0.431 0.4627 0.237
Back Against the Wall 115 40.7 60.87% 0.019 0.0492 0.763
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 161 36.38 57.14% 0.214 0.4 0.128
Burn Brightest Before the End 152 39.03 56.58% 0.09 0.16 0.382
Disintegrating Ecosystem 178 29.46 46.07% -0.178 0.1982 -0.147
Downward Spiral 182 35.63 53.85% -0.095 0.0706 0.027
Erosion of Will 163 36.85 55.21% 0.266 0.4804 0.054
Intensifying Exploitation 221 33.53 52.04% -0.258 -0.0169 -0.106
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 62 32.23 66.13% 0.321 -0.26 0.002
Memory Fades to Dust 201 38.11 58.21% -0.128 0.1648 0.407
Power Corrodes the Spirit 195 30.99 49.74% -0.531 -0.3702 -0.33
Promising Farmlands 180 31.76 46.67% -0.344 -0.0482 -0.458
Shattered Fragments of Power 121 36.45 62.81% 0.635 0.723 -0.142
Slow Dissolution of Will 165 34.57 51.52% 0.056 0.4492 0.37
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 37.38 78.13% 0.441 -0.2709 1.039
The Border of Life and Death 45 32.98 71.11% 0.146 -0.3335 0.562
Thriving Communities 180 31.69 47.22% -0.189 0.1107 0.09
Thriving Crops 83 31.29 65.06% 0.089 -0.0132 0.417
Unnatural Proliferation 189 37.22 57.14% 0.27 0.4389 0.091
Untended Land Crumbles 177 31.55 46.33% -0.252 0.0064 -0.451

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1468 48.16% 32.92 64.65% 0.33 1.4728 0.024
B 1465 45.69% 32.47 66.62% 0.142 1.1972 0.237
C 1708 44.39% 32.76 65.05% 0.13 1.018 0.275
D 1201 46.54% 33.06 67.28% 0.005 1.0593 0.286
E 1577 47.68% 33.77 65.31% 0.292 1.1964 0.361
F 1144 45.17% 31.9 65.82% -0.061 0.9427 0.103
G 1084 47.68% 32.17 65.5% 0.26 1.2287 -0.157
H 988 44.82% 31.4 63.87% 0.096 1.0891 0.147
East 171 37.87% 33.6 54.97% -0.443 0.5453 -0.058
Northeast 120 38.14% 31.13 52.5% -0.345 0.6044 -0.113
Northwest 109 34.58% 31.42 52.29% -0.457 0.5847 -0.942
Southeast 97 31.58% 32.12 51.55% 0.088 1.0064 -0.196
Southwest 103 34.65% 30.7 48.54% -0.472 0.9844 0.009
West 167 36.59% 33.06 53.29% 0.496 1.6034 0.007

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 31 0.0% 17.61 58.06% -1.487 -0.8236 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 0.0% 11.4 40.0% -0.946 -0.4517 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 88 20.25% 41.36 73.86% 0.195 -0.4276 1.235
Start of Game Growth 162 21.71% 43.17 75.93% 0.979 0.5664 -0.064
Unlimited Undo 704 49.5% 31.8 58.38% -0.004 -0.0995 0.263
Using Tokens but Not Events 585 26.51% 27.48 72.82% -0.034 0.0418 -0.212

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 151 37.58% 35.52 76.82% 0.498 0.4621 0.788
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 18 55.56% 25.06 50.0% -0.837 -0.6783 0.231
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence 440 41.59% 36.02 73.41% 0.561 -0.4517 0.62
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 59 30.51% 29.68 72.88% 0.028 -0.184 -0.303
Downpour Drenches the World 62 24.19% 31.18 59.68% -0.326 -0.0794 0.47
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 143 39.86% 35.88 74.13% 0.717 0.1544 0.107
Eyes Watch From the Trees 100 30.3% 32.98 78.0% 0.486 0.0069 -0.8
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 74 25.68% 32.27 67.57% -0.046 -0.4523 0.324
Finder of Paths Unseen 44 54.55% 24.64 54.55% -0.087 0.6754 -0.252
Fractured Days Split the Sky 47 34.04% 24.57 65.96% -0.327 0.3349 -0.283
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 66 45.45% 34.39 65.15% 0.155 0.1519 0.35
Heart of the Wildfire 63 58.73% 32.62 61.9% 0.091 0.4615 1.205
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 115 29.57% 31.78 58.26% -0.078 -0.5049 0.285
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds — Spreading Hostility 436 40.37% 33.69 68.58% 0.19 -0.3024 -0.059
Lightning's Swift Strike 42 30.0% 30.19 80.95% 0.348 0.5615 -0.15
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 67 46.15% 36.94 65.67% 0.055 -0.561 0.193
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 32 40.63% 38.5 81.25% 0.751 0.4653 0.395
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 50 51.02% 34.84 54.0% -0.039 -0.1408 0.715
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 143 46.1% 35.58 65.73% -0.011 -0.2577 -0.273
Many Minds Move as One 57 44.64% 33.67 71.93% 0.441 0.2793 -0.602
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 149 45.95% 35.42 63.09% -0.125 -0.0906 0.323
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 64 56.25% 31.63 60.94% -0.388 -0.5552 -0.186
River Surges in Sunlight 45 38.64% 29.78 68.89% 0.34 0.367 -0.621
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 37 27.03% 38.68 72.97% -0.217 0.1222 -1.315
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 86 46.51% 36.33 65.12% -0.173 -0.205 0.128
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 85 40.0% 34.65 78.82% 0.217 0.1063 0.471
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 23 30.43% 32.52 65.22% -0.352 -0.3739 -0.239
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 63 34.92% 38.52 69.84% 0.264 -0.0682 0.133
Shifting Memory of Ages 67 43.28% 27.75 67.16% 0.132 0.4128 -0.309
Shroud of Silent Mist 52 46.15% 25.25 44.23% -0.898 -0.6247 -0.295
Starlight Seeks its Form 105 53.33% 28.88 62.86% -0.401 -0.6211 0.317
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 126 38.1% 33.5 71.43% 0.273 -0.1738 -0.31
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 71 32.39% 25.35 60.56% -0.571 -0.4493 -0.204
Thunderspeaker 46 47.83% 27.22 50.0% -0.443 -0.4242 0.116
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 36 27.78% 32.19 63.89% -0.498 -0.2941 0.036
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 64 69.84% 26.91 42.19% -0.345 -0.171 -0.419
Vital Strength of the Earth 19 31.58% 32.58 78.95% 1.162 1.734 0.298
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 62 37.1% 27.02 53.23% -0.748 -0.3661 -0.739
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 15 53.33% 25.8 60.0% -0.363 0.394 -0.668
Volcano Looming High 83 40.96% 35.75 69.88% 0.315 0.2885 0.588
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium 567 38.76% 31.8 68.43% 0.113 -0.4209 0.125

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 81.87%
Crops Wither and Fade 90.25%
Favors Called Due 89.24%
Mantle of Dread 92.92%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1282 16.77 3.43%
II 2318 30.59 50.52%
III 2562 34.74 89.42%
IV 1056 38.3 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 44
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2278
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1161
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1046
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1378
Lose: Invader deck ran out 9
Lose: Adversary condition 396
Win: Sacrifice victory 17
Lose: Scenario condition 35
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 834
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.4 Win Model: -0.2

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.021 Win Model: -0.076
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4881 50.44% 32.31 61.09%
2 1349 48.1% 31.94 67.31%
3 548 41.13% 33.15 66.42%
4 274 39.78% 35.9 75.18%
5 23 17.39% 26.91 73.91%
6 143 30.5% 31.81 59.44%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)