Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 364 27.2% 45.84 -0.101 67.03% -0.547 -0.1743
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 300 25.67% 53.99 0.952 77.33% -0.365 -0.0389
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 197 37.06% 58.61 0.353 75.63% -0.285 0.4822
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 192 45.31% 59.61 -1.306 66.15% -1.26 -0.2971
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 68.0% 53.32 -21.37 40.0% -0.518 0.8699
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 265 67.42% 44.47 -2.444 18.49% -0.976 0.9183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1368 19.84% 45.59 -2.387 79.46% -0.561 -0.358
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 997 28.38% 46.44 0.422 71.92% -0.345 -0.4303
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1243 24.96% 59.98 6.495 80.37% 0.23 0.15
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1203 28.89% 64.34 2.824 77.97% -0.784 -0.5815
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 773 27.55% 66.49 -3.548 74.9% -1.541 -1.327
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 491 53.16% 67.7 -3.103 61.1% -0.995 -0.3185
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2895 77.05% 58.0 -1.315 37.1% -1.756 -0.4236
The Kingdom of England 0 1 990 21.48% 44.42 -3.282 76.67% -0.81 -0.6237
The Kingdom of England 1 3 623 28.23% 53.02 1.243 74.16% -0.759 -0.4593
The Kingdom of England 2 4 635 41.07% 45.3 -2.948 53.39% -1.254 -0.5683
The Kingdom of England 3 6 543 46.36% 48.98 -3.304 44.75% -1.617 -0.3987
The Kingdom of England 4 7 397 43.29% 56.45 6.676 50.63% -0.734 0.5393
The Kingdom of England 5 9 213 72.64% 43.31 -4.478 16.43% -0.923 0.573
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2644 64.53% 46.25 -8.159 14.49% -2.594 -0.6404
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 690 26.31% 48.8 3.214 77.39% 0.371 0.7634
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 385 40.52% 49.37 -8.251 68.83% -0.968 -0.141
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 986 23.33% 54.65 4.245 61.87% -0.58 0.5405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 493 41.99% 52.44 -0.07 43.2% -1.407 -0.0261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 384 41.67% 56.18 -5.51 43.23% -0.975 0.5616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 297 47.81% 50.55 -4.122 34.01% -1.415 -0.6309
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2864 41.5% 59.55 0.53 36.14% -1.569 -0.0879
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 108 13.89% 39.69 -6.47 67.59% -0.751 -0.5477
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 73 32.88% 44.88 2.238 60.27% -0.09 0.2551
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 63 36.51% 38.63 1.597 44.44% -0.347 0.0518
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 67 43.28% 54.18 4.195 44.78% -0.804 -0.5258
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 63 46.03% 54.25 4.747 46.03% -0.955 -0.1179
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 110 61.82% 62.01 2.429 46.36% -0.944 -0.2832
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 404 64.02% 46.04 4.052 13.12% -1.502 -0.3794
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 746 23.31% 43.62 -8.393 77.48% -1.416 -1.2235
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 581 22.24% 50.27 -1.387 82.96% -0.498 -0.4206
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 593 32.37% 50.76 0.489 74.7% -0.365 -0.2475
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 732 27.19% 49.1 -4.342 63.66% -1.804 -1.3327
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 385 47.01% 60.64 -1.252 73.77% -0.879 -0.2674
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 198 54.04% 53.15 -20.071 56.06% -0.704 0.2724
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 962 44.9% 63.69 -7.727 66.11% -1.606 -0.6075
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 423 18.44% 46.56 -2.048 82.03% -0.255 -0.1442
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 290 27.59% 54.66 -0.926 76.21% -0.215 0.392
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 228 22.37% 63.07 2.837 82.46% -0.568 -0.1553
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 118 48.31% 55.23 -7.357 57.63% -1.549 -0.5534
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 67 37.31% 64.97 0.0 62.69%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 50 62.0% 66.84 -21.896 42.0% -0.165 1.4912
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1832 37.25% 78.99 -2.738 57.81% -1.124 0.852

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 17547 28.9 49.87 73.57% 0.649 0.8387 0.953
1 Thematic 7463 52.05 54.8 45.02% -0.015 0.6752 0.703
2 Archipelago 135 49.63 62.71 34.07% -0.4 -0.1723 0.117
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3870 26.28 51.81 81.14% 0.842 0.8448 0.947
2 Coastline 441 29.53 49.71 71.88% 0.104 -0.1117 0.228
2 Fragment 74 28.38 48.97 72.97% 0.215 -0.1496 -0.397
2 Heart 89 38.2 51.27 32.58% -0.983 -1.2556 -1.688
2 Opposite Shores 1567 32.74 47.83 62.67% -0.019 0.0069 0.159
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1817 43.51 51.66 53.0% 0.047 0.5173 0.268
2 Top to Top 120 35.29 57.36 77.5% 0.268 0.1743 1.334
3 Archipelago 31 45.16 65.52 51.61% -0.61 -1.4154 0.061
3 Coastline 6 0.0 61.83 100.0% 0.195
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.872
3 Round (Default) 2341 21.45 53.51 80.82% 0.93 0.6936 0.083
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.587
3 Thematic 290 35.17 60.77 59.31% -0.57 -0.3759 0.578
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.2 -1.3296 -0.632
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.118
4 Leaf 13 23.08 52.31 84.62% 0.12 -0.5738 -0.611
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% 0.833 -0.5033 -0.41
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1466 22.46 65.11 73.33% 0.005 -0.2437 0.641
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1986 21.97 61.96 80.72% -0.386 -0.631 -0.188
5 Archipelago 9 55.56 66.33 55.56% -0.127 0.2225 -0.105
5 Other 84 34.52 60.18 63.1% -0.544 -1.5399 -0.012
5 Thematic 51 52.94 72.31 50.98% 0.249 -0.1077 0.162
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.947 0.3506 0.431
6 Other 27 14.81 46.15 51.85% -0.29 -1.0617 -0.985
6 Star 10 20.0 42.7 50.0% -1.048 -1.1265 -0.536
6 Thematic 420 10.24 27.91 26.43% -0.652 0.0439 -1.684
6 Two Centers (Default) 54 9.43 61.56 85.19% -0.013 -0.5401 0.175

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 700 47.82 43.57% -0.261 -0.096 -1.207
Aid From Lesser Spirits 626 49.96 47.76% -0.552 -0.5987 -1.041
All Things Weaken 432 46.42 42.36% -0.638 -0.2867 -1.222
Attenuated Essence 33 46.88 30.3% -0.404 -0.3497 -1.193
Back Against the Wall 625 47.08 42.08% -0.63 -0.543 -1.491
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 37 37.46 29.73% -1.336 -1.128 -1.346
Burn Brightest Before the End 32 39.19 31.25% -1.34 -1.2164 -1.623
Disintegrating Ecosystem 676 42.32 37.43% -1.008 -0.6003 -1.588
Downward Spiral 3085 44.98 31.93% -0.535 -0.3936 -1.281
Erosion of Will 745 45.59 40.81% -1.091 -0.784 -1.312
Intensifying Exploitation 39 35.92 25.64% -1.336 -1.0983 -1.327
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 202 55.25 72.28% 0.286 -0.1934 -0.198
Memory Fades to Dust 3100 43.92 29.87% -0.992 -0.7022 -1.407
Power Corrodes the Spirit 384 45.65 42.45% -1.217 -1.0698 -1.286
Promising Farmlands 675 41.78 33.63% -0.309 0.0125 -1.704
Shattered Fragments of Power 29 39.79 31.03% -0.705 -0.515 -1.499
Slow Dissolution of Will 30 38.93 30.0% -0.832 -0.3913 -1.653
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 125 54.18 68.0% -0.84 -1.5718 -0.241
The Border of Life and Death 9 40.22 55.56% -0.229 -0.622 -0.469
Thriving Communities 356 41.7 27.25% -1.434 -1.1634 -1.858
Thriving Crops 13 47.08 61.54% 0.575 0.4917 -0.289
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.491
Unnatural Proliferation 418 45.39 38.28% -1.003 -0.8406 -1.359
Untended Land Crumbles 416 44.48 42.79% -0.418 -0.1043 -1.297

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7417 28.88% 50.7 74.53% -0.501 0.4805 -0.933
B 7570 27.23% 52.15 75.67% -0.516 0.3843 -1.036
C 8142 25.88% 54.67 77.6% -0.215 0.5059 -0.701
D 6985 27.26% 52.62 75.08% -0.399 0.5278 -0.965
E 2938 27.69% 52.92 74.78% -0.206 0.5436 -1.261
F 4616 24.78% 51.57 75.54% -0.76 0.108 -1.411
G 4206 24.14% 53.8 78.53% -0.342 0.492 -0.908
H 5003 23.77% 56.15 75.69% -0.672 0.1376 -0.726
East 8910 45.26% 55.17 49.14% -0.389 0.3513 -1.123
Northeast 5215 43.46% 54.26 45.79% -0.772 -0.0092 -1.621
Northwest 3000 33.19% 53.97 54.8% -0.28 0.6897 -1.37
Southeast 1333 30.98% 45.07 46.06% -0.32 0.537 -1.539
Southwest 1056 22.06% 39.09 42.99% -1.46 -0.2663 -1.647
West 5717 34.2% 54.96 57.32% -1.059 -0.1168 -0.959

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 342 0.0% 45.04 73.39% -1.969 -1.3328 -0.242
Not Using Events or Tokens 9896 45.91% 49.87 55.35% 0.05 0.5598 -0.36
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1267 15.61% 65.8 82.72% 0.822 0.1711 0.1
Start of Game Growth 1644 15.27% 64.29 82.79% 1.086 0.6779 0.65
Unlimited Undo 2754 22.24% 53.85 78.0% -0.614 -0.5563 0.137
Using Tokens but Not Events 4614 14.61% 49.93 79.82% -0.345 -0.3752 0.07

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6408 17.82 0.0%
II 24840 30.73 85.27%
III 6510 34.75 83.26%
IV 2328 38.2 19.67%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.138 Win Model: 0.516
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 25688 36.38% 51.23 63.71%
2 7548 30.55% 51.38 73.57%
3 2750 23.74% 54.88 78.0%
4 3515 21.47% 63.46 78.89%
5 91 31.87% 59.85 52.75%
6 494 9.13% 31.83 35.22%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1643
Lose: Invader deck ran out 307
Lose: Adversary condition 3893
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2215
Win: Scenario condition 27031
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4581
Lose: Spirit destroyed 387

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-28 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)