Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 381 27.03% 45.77 -3.778 66.67% -0.951 -0.611
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 313 25.88% 53.22 1.098 76.36% -0.057 0.2428
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 226 38.5% 54.69 -7.507 69.91% -0.832 0.0052
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 207 44.44% 57.26 -15.034 63.29% -1.388 -0.4383
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 0.0 37.74%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -6.297 12.96% -0.509 0.8412
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 285 64.44% 43.36 0.707 18.6% -0.951 1.1002
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1457 19.43% 44.71 -5.458 78.04% -0.587 -0.3436
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1066 27.76% 45.67 -1.39 70.92% -0.485 -0.4251
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1465 22.95% 56.13 0.456 75.02% -0.65 -0.4597
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1276 28.59% 63.23 -1.883 76.65% -0.883 -0.7077
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 811 27.37% 64.76 -1.993 73.12% -0.794 -0.4905
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 516 51.74% 66.63 -0.091 60.27% -1.224 -0.7254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3096 74.47% 55.83 -6.006 35.92% -2.029 -0.6611
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1053 22.09% 43.69 -2.003 75.12% -0.24 0.1378
The Kingdom of England 1 3 665 29.0% 51.97 1.09 72.63% -0.14 0.2242
The Kingdom of England 2 4 684 40.76% 44.63 3.438 52.49% -0.187 0.597
The Kingdom of England 3 6 587 44.73% 46.95 -12.542 42.59% -2.038 -0.8824
The Kingdom of England 4 7 406 42.82% 56.01 1.685 50.0% -0.899 0.3797
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -5.755 15.84% -0.86 0.7783
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2822 61.85% 44.93 -5.278 14.64% -1.898 0.1747
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 716 26.19% 48.75 3.361 77.23% 0.171 0.6827
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 408 41.42% 48.22 -2.961 66.67% -0.487 0.1576
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1147 22.93% 54.29 6.998 61.73% -0.135 0.8578
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 539 41.74% 52.3 2.967 43.78% -0.736 0.5817
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 388 41.49% 56.57 33.913 43.56% 0.175 1.6278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 376 48.4% 47.6 1.528 29.52% -1.134 -0.1629
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3638 36.6% 55.62 4.416 35.98% -0.978 0.4501
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 146 13.7% 39.77 -6.974 63.7% -0.871 -0.5833
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 92 39.13% 42.18 -4.422 53.26% -0.838 -0.3218
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 86 36.05% 37.52 -3.863 43.02% -1.055 -0.4788
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 122 41.8% 47.76 -2.304 37.7% -1.059 -0.6122
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 -2.058 48.84% -0.975 -0.239
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 176 60.8% 61.06 5.414 47.16% -0.982 -0.4719
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 546 62.57% 44.26 -6.707 14.47% -2.624 -1.5252
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 800 23.16% 42.78 -4.946 75.88% -0.564 -0.3101
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 612 22.91% 49.5 -0.349 81.37% -0.262 -0.2274
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 634 31.85% 50.06 2.206 73.82% -0.133 0.0827
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 879 23.21% 42.11 -6.798 54.61% -1.632 -1.2804
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 409 45.23% 58.72 -4.454 71.39% -1.235 -0.5893
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 206 53.4% 53.67 7.718 56.8% -0.104 0.8231
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1044 44.91% 61.27 -4.088 63.22% -1.299 -0.2064
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 462 19.48% 45.05 -6.445 79.22% -0.371 -0.2731
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 299 27.42% 54.01 -2.999 75.25% -0.105 0.7714
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 253 21.74% 61.47 -0.389 80.63% -0.458 -0.0461
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 132 47.73% 55.0 -10.206 58.33% -0.806 0.2754
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 39.746 61.54% 0.38 1.3702
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 74 55.41% 51.43 -13.95 29.73% -1.939 -0.3877
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2380 33.39% 68.1 5.296 50.46% -0.857 0.9376

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19662 28.5 49.5 72.04% 0.522 0.6759 0.96
1 Thematic 7744 51.18 53.92 44.52% -0.213 0.2504 0.663
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% 0.118
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4213 25.41 50.71 80.11% 0.289 0.3521 0.933
2 Coastline 511 28.0 47.17 68.49% 0.301 0.1862 0.293
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.496 0.1925 -0.48
2 Heart 93 39.78 49.84 32.26% -0.054 -0.1813 -1.541
2 Opposite Shores 1889 28.75 41.57 54.37% 0.34 0.2148 0.152
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1858 43.14 51.2 52.8% -0.524 -0.302 0.237
2 Top to Top 143 30.99 52.67 72.03% -0.438 -0.5392 1.139
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.234
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.566
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.132 0.8375 1.069
3 Round (Default) 2520 21.71 52.55 79.17% -0.063 -0.2919 0.27
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.638 -0.4896 0.607
3 Thematic 312 33.97 58.97 58.33% -0.4 -0.6483 0.576
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.454
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.178
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.536
4 Other 70 24.29 58.23 82.86% -0.18
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1650 20.92 61.26 69.39% -0.197 0.0045 0.619
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2117 21.48 60.22 78.6% -0.44 -0.122 -0.161
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.042
5 Other 91 32.97 58.99 63.74% 0.904 0.4107 0.246
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.61 0.4462 0.264
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.776
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% -0.354
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.203
6 Thematic 616 10.71 23.47 21.43% -0.443 -0.3132 -1.699
6 Two Centers (Default) 105 34.62 53.32 65.71% -0.899 -1.1405 -0.935
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.694 0.1523 -0.307
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.793

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 747 47.42 42.97% -0.126 0.0501 -1.122
Aid From Lesser Spirits 662 49.81 47.58% -0.411 -0.4493 -0.911
All Things Weaken 479 46.63 42.38% -0.177 0.0942 -1.037
Attenuated Essence 59 46.12 30.51% 0.033 0.1348 -1.012
Back Against the Wall 654 46.88 42.05% -0.405 -0.3365 -1.374
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 72 38.88 26.39% -1.146 -0.9554 -1.425
Burn Brightest Before the End 49 39.27 24.49% -1.061 -0.8342 -1.811
Disintegrating Ecosystem 734 41.78 36.65% -1.02 -0.6486 -1.506
Downward Spiral 3206 44.47 32.19% -0.632 -0.4886 -1.155
Erosion of Will 804 45.48 40.55% -0.969 -0.6611 -1.192
Intensifying Exploitation 68 37.35 25.0% -0.654 -0.416 -1.328
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 220 55.75 71.36% 0.572 -0.0072 -0.12
Memory Fades to Dust 3225 43.53 30.08% -0.393 -0.1267 -1.286
Power Corrodes the Spirit 423 46.43 43.03% -0.199 0.0634 -1.111
Promising Farmlands 710 41.98 33.94% -0.57 -0.2491 -1.54
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 37.23 23.26% -1.547 -1.3629 -1.734
Slow Dissolution of Will 49 40.73 32.65% 0.485 0.8474 -1.24
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 136 53.67 67.65% -0.379 -0.9985 -0.1
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.186 -0.6308 -0.711
Thriving Communities 395 41.63 27.85% -0.886 -0.5334 -1.69
Thriving Crops 29 38.97 44.83% -1.061 -1.0422 -0.872
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.367
Unnatural Proliferation 455 45.05 36.92% -0.987 -0.8317 -1.296
Untended Land Crumbles 455 44.88 42.64% -0.788 -0.4144 -1.1

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8491 27.84% 48.19 70.52% -0.399 0.45 -1.127
B 8353 27.29% 50.96 73.76% -0.429 0.369 -1.164
C 8937 25.67% 53.6 75.81% -0.234 0.4292 -0.846
D 7707 27.06% 51.28 72.84% -0.525 0.2857 -1.115
E 3488 27.75% 53.23 73.14% -0.184 0.4758 -1.208
F 4976 24.91% 50.85 74.02% -0.529 0.234 -1.485
G 4549 24.24% 52.87 76.87% -0.521 0.3103 -1.065
H 5640 23.0% 52.77 71.1% -0.543 0.2041 -0.923
East 9559 43.29% 53.19 47.71% 0.05 0.921 -1.194
Northeast 5722 40.79% 51.53 43.99% -0.692 0.027 -1.679
Northwest 3426 30.81% 50.15 50.99% -0.48 0.3324 -1.469
Southeast 1595 28.53% 40.65 41.13% -0.79 -0.0765 -1.649
Southwest 1317 21.03% 34.68 37.28% -1.1 0.1807 -1.744
West 6263 32.81% 52.34 54.64% 0.153 1.0808 -0.999

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 377 0.0% 43.51 70.82% -0.106 0.6857 -0.348
Not Using Events or Tokens 10524 44.67% 48.75 55.12% -0.542 -0.1447 -0.393
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1357 15.08% 65.7 82.17% 1.415 0.7912 0.163
Start of Game Growth 1747 14.65% 64.1 82.26% 0.633 0.0919 0.669
Unlimited Undo 2926 21.78% 53.23 77.07% -0.104 -0.0659 0.137
Using Tokens but Not Events 5110 14.22% 48.25 76.24% -0.571 -0.6085 0.089

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7913 15.94 0.0%
II 26794 30.51 84.99%
III 6962 34.78 83.18%
IV 2484 38.4 20.17%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.108 Win Model: 0.306
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 28416 35.13% 50.13 62.36%
2 8074 29.98% 50.65 72.96%
3 2956 23.67% 53.81 76.59%
4 3850 20.85% 60.76 75.51%
5 111 34.23% 55.73 50.45%
6 746 13.17% 28.65 30.43%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3120
Lose: Invader deck ran out 326
Lose: Adversary condition 4077
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2340
Win: Scenario condition 29036
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4823
Lose: Spirit destroyed 402

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-25 05:20:10 (Pacific Time)