Results with Adversaries

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 618 48.18 44.01% -1.057 0.9135 -1.398
Aid From Lesser Spirits 571 49.82 48.34% -0.865 0.9125 -1.19
All Things Weaken 379 46.97 43.01% -1.539 0.5103 -1.451
Back Against the Wall 557 47.56 42.91% -1.848 0.0907 -1.718
Disintegrating Ecosystem 607 42.92 38.55% -1.73 0.3981 -1.733
Downward Spiral 2770 45.94 31.3% -1.065 0.8959 -1.499
Erosion of Will 670 45.93 41.94% -2.193 -0.1117 -1.512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 176 56.31 74.43% -0.778 -0.2762 -0.648
Memory Fades to Dust 2774 44.93 29.13% -1.522 0.6186 -1.62
Power Corrodes the Spirit 333 46.52 43.54% -1.12 0.8607 -1.589
Promising Farmlands 594 42.12 34.34% -1.007 1.0148 -1.933
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 116 55.26 70.69% -0.28 0.2165 -0.332
Thriving Communities 302 42.82 28.81% -1.992 0.0674 -2.045
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.66
Unnatural Proliferation 346 46.1 39.6% -2.005 -0.0477 -1.607
Untended Land Crumbles 361 45.94 44.6% -1.273 0.76 -1.439

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6178 30.19% 53.06 77.61% -0.203 0.5329 -0.662
B 6420 27.7% 53.95 78.12% -0.304 0.3936 -0.854
C 6794 26.4% 55.3 79.7% 0.101 0.5704 -0.565
D 5893 27.67% 54.85 78.35% -0.271 0.4388 -0.71
E 2381 28.32% 54.97 78.33% 0.035 0.5791 -1.122
F 3819 24.32% 54.08 79.52% -0.213 0.449 -0.967
G 3585 23.86% 55.68 80.98% -0.123 0.5075 -0.681
H 4301 24.56% 59.21 78.75% -0.239 0.4251 -0.528
East 7730 48.57% 58.72 51.66% 0.463 1.1244 -0.888
Northeast 4430 48.12% 58.8 48.76% -1.062 -0.4023 -1.487
Northwest 2355 37.73% 61.22 62.21% 0.148 0.7585 -1.145
Southeast 863 40.32% 57.18 59.1% 0.129 0.66 -1.334
Southwest 651 28.73% 50.9 56.22% -1.488 -0.5195 -1.668
West 4835 36.59% 59.74 62.38% -1.043 -0.2371 -0.799

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 302 0.0% 47.76 78.48% -0.742 1.4874 -0.356
Not Using Events or Tokens 8514 48.55% 51.9 54.32% 0.113 0.3397 -0.308
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1114 15.83% 66.16 84.29% 0.058 -0.922 -0.086
Start of Game Growth 1454 15.22% 64.97 84.59% 0.153 -0.3038 0.558
Unlimited Undo 2322 22.47% 56.3 82.64% -0.491 -1.0425 0.308
Using Tokens but Not Events 3633 14.53% 54.79 88.82% 0.536 0.691 0.464

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4508 22.65 0.0%
II 21349 31.08 85.14%
III 5743 34.66 84.07%
IV 2040 37.91 19.56%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.587 Win Model: 0.381
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 21353 38.2% 53.17 64.74%
2 6540 31.26% 52.2 74.94%
3 2419 23.97% 56.57 80.36%
4 3139 21.96% 66.59 82.99%
5 50 32.0% 69.66 64.0%
6 139 16.67% 63.0 70.5%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 254
Lose: Adversary condition 3520
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 1954
Win: Scenario condition 23381
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4156
Lose: Spirit destroyed 353

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)