Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 37 29.73% 32.65 -0.321 51.35% -0.271 0.1322
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 60 23.33% 33.78 4.51 46.67% 0.138 0.2031
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 23 26.09% 51.83 5.411 73.91% 0.547 0.9405
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 28 28.57% 46.57 5.153 53.57% -0.297 -0.1061
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 20 60.0% 44.55 -4.909 40.0% -1.103 -0.3379
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 9 44.44% 32.67 -20.451 33.33% -0.514 0.6539
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 76 32.89% 20.22 -2.502 14.47% -1.795 0.1057
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 440 26.14% 44.42 3.846 64.55% 0.162 0.5432
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 378 25.66% 52.27 10.664 74.87% 1.065 1.4617
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 284 40.49% 53.77 1.931 67.96% -0.747 0.0334
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 263 43.73% 54.98 0.862 61.22% -0.695 0.3547
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 65 63.08% 49.14 6.983 40.0% 0.05 1.5334
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 57 78.95% 41.25 7.616 12.28% -0.124 1.4711
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 333 59.64% 41.06 -11.837 17.72% -0.845 0.8868
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1717 19.44% 42.4 -1.61 73.38% -0.611 -0.3514
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1318 27.06% 44.14 0.938 68.44% 0.114 0.085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1930 20.88% 49.76 0.897 66.53% -0.213 -0.2468
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1737 26.3% 58.26 -0.356 71.1% -1.307 -0.863
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1017 24.98% 62.3 2.289 70.8% -0.855 -0.601
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 618 49.03% 61.87 0.314 55.83% -1.103 -0.5495
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3503 71.8% 52.45 -5.252 33.86% -2.397 -1.1149
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1240 21.92% 42.1 1.073 72.34% 0.172 0.4683
The Kingdom of England 1 3 986 23.4% 51.28 -0.399 72.31% -0.525 -0.0351
The Kingdom of England 2 4 810 39.48% 43.09 -1.133 50.74% -1.102 -0.5643
The Kingdom of England 3 6 710 44.02% 43.85 -7.833 39.86% -2.381 -1.1262
The Kingdom of England 4 7 504 42.63% 52.31 1.33 45.44% -1.296 -0.307
The Kingdom of England 5 9 263 66.41% 38.31 -9.391 14.07% -1.458 0.1002
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3286 58.63% 42.8 -8.085 15.03% -3.164 -1.2832
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 787 25.99% 48.04 1.555 75.86% -0.011 0.4721
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 502 40.24% 45.2 -2.387 61.95% -0.571 0.1582
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1337 22.89% 52.81 4.862 60.06% -0.334 0.7963
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 647 40.8% 50.05 -4.012 42.04% -1.586 -0.2001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 491 44.4% 55.67 3.976 42.77% -0.231 1.164
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 423 49.65% 47.96 -12.288 29.55% -1.032 0.0642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4669 34.17% 54.58 13.384 37.48% -0.531 0.8643
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 226 13.27% 37.25 -0.61 61.06% -0.17 -0.1217
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 165 33.33% 38.26 -7.14 43.03% -1.401 -1.1541
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 138 31.88% 35.41 0.337 39.86% -0.453 0.0447
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 205 46.83% 47.38 -1.098 36.1% -1.154 -0.9572
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 131 41.22% 49.6 -8.025 43.51% -1.623 -0.9665
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 282 53.19% 47.95 -6.172 37.94% -1.183 -0.7439
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 745 58.06% 39.8 -8.7 13.96% -2.901 -1.7406
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 983 22.63% 40.44 -2.235 71.52% -0.644 -0.5189
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 742 23.61% 46.74 -2.87 76.28% -0.75 -0.6155
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 771 30.86% 46.89 -1.936 69.26% -0.593 -0.3152
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1144 21.07% 36.44 -8.346 47.03% -1.681 -1.3714
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 478 45.61% 55.36 0.482 67.57% -0.499 0.2773
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 254 50.0% 49.62 6.86 51.97% -0.222 0.688
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1216 45.18% 56.6 -7.81 57.81% -2.096 -1.1413
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 573 18.85% 43.19 -2.092 75.39% -0.492 -0.4215
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 374 26.74% 50.07 3.934 68.98% -0.106 0.6308
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 297 23.91% 59.11 3.953 77.78% 0.078 0.5795
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 168 42.86% 50.78 -8.875 54.17% -1.185 -0.1397
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 85 37.65% 62.92 21.415 61.18% 0.163 0.9966
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 99 46.46% 44.23 16.188 25.25% 0.19 1.8782
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2945 31.26% 65.39 5.129 49.13% -0.937 0.5249

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 25511 26.55 47.7 69.79% -0.259 0.2227 0.941
1 Thematic 8999 48.52 52.09 44.6% -0.295 0.5532 0.775
2 Archipelago 202 40.1 45.08 25.25% -0.24
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4998 24.11 48.6 77.91% 0.142 0.4455 0.917
2 Coastline 719 25.78 41.58 61.06% -0.212 -0.0811 0.012
2 Fragment 95 25.26 47.17 74.74% 0.811 0.7967 -0.103
2 Heart 117 41.03 48.17 31.62% 0.363 0.1224 -1.374
2 Opposite Shores 2232 28.47 40.62 54.08% -0.188 0.0735 0.149
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 2181 41.15 49.34 51.35% -0.067 0.7181 0.281
2 Top to Top 166 31.9 51.31 69.28% 0.792 0.8988 0.959
3 Archipelago 75 60.0 57.81 29.33% 0.254
3 Coastline 8 0.0 66.13 100.0% 0.846
3 Other 71 32.86 49.45 73.24% 0.164 -0.4508 1.096
3 Round (Default) 2953 21.41 51.26 76.87% -0.674 -0.683 0.292
3 Sunrise 10 10.0 63.1 80.0% 0.086 -0.0175 0.482
3 Thematic 402 35.32 52.54 50.25% -0.74 -0.4706 0.243
4 Archipelago 22 45.45 68.09 72.73% 1.033
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.017
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.525 0.2764 -0.45
4 Other 75 25.33 56.08 80.0% -0.104 -0.9781 -0.309
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1977 18.93 54.98 62.67% 0.205 0.5368 0.571
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2615 19.35 55.57 75.53% -0.116 -0.1993 -0.169
5 Archipelago 14 57.14 59.5 42.86% 0.017
5 Other 145 29.66 51.28 61.38% 0.525 -0.2198 -0.492
5 Thematic 93 44.09 59.4 43.01% 0.098
6 Archipelago 20 25.0 46.9 55.0% -0.111 -0.9449 0.173
6 Other 47 14.89 43.3 53.19% -0.402
6 Star 29 24.14 46.86 62.07% -1.212
6 Thematic 967 10.86 24.43 23.27% -0.026 0.3522 -1.551
6 Two Centers (Default) 235 35.47 49.12 58.3% -0.551 -0.1206 -1.058
7 Archipelago 5 0.0 43.0 40.0% -0.031 -0.0772 -0.56
7 Other 5 20.0 12.2 0.0% -0.511 -0.3839 -1.368

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 868 46.82 43.2% -0.751 -0.5749 -0.889
Aid From Lesser Spirits 756 49.58 47.88% -0.215 -0.3195 -0.671
All Things Weaken 560 45.83 41.79% -1.324 -1.0948 -0.839
Attenuated Essence 118 43.78 35.59% -0.447 -0.4124 -0.775
Back Against the Wall 747 46.66 41.5% 0.098 0.0761 -1.157
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 114 36.54 28.07% -1.153 -1.0481 -1.433
Burn Brightest Before the End 102 38.52 26.47% -0.075 0.0645 -1.97
Disintegrating Ecosystem 828 41.26 36.71% 0.199 0.5574 -1.285
Downward Spiral 3617 43.59 32.79% -0.414 -0.3314 -0.905
Erosion of Will 908 45.53 40.86% -0.364 -0.1099 -0.992
Intensifying Exploitation 128 36.27 28.91% -0.618 -0.3609 -1.149
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 256 54.57 69.53% -0.014 -0.4171 0.024
Memory Fades to Dust 3636 42.33 30.09% -1.143 -0.8636 -1.053
Power Corrodes the Spirit 504 45.89 42.86% -0.829 -0.5573 -0.914
Promising Farmlands 804 40.89 32.96% -0.598 -0.3051 -1.355
Shattered Fragments of Power 89 39.61 29.21% -0.543 -0.4085 -1.271
Slow Dissolution of Will 104 39.82 36.54% -0.341 0.0204 -1.141
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 165 50.76 64.24% -0.426 -0.985 -0.075
The Border of Life and Death 34 48.32 58.82% 0.271 -0.095 -0.46
Thriving Communities 485 39.81 27.42% -0.981 -0.6628 -1.544
Thriving Crops 61 39.85 44.26% -1.334 -1.4563 -0.553
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.177
Unnatural Proliferation 538 44.56 36.25% -0.529 -0.4389 -1.171
Untended Land Crumbles 546 44.21 41.94% -0.745 -0.4768 -0.859

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 10544 26.6% 45.99 68.14% 0.06 1.2092 -1.272
B 10562 25.66% 48.25 70.81% -0.092 0.9763 -1.369
C 11540 23.93% 51.36 73.45% 0.003 0.9222 -1.029
D 9856 25.57% 47.94 68.94% -0.107 0.9562 -1.297
E 4625 26.26% 49.99 69.1% 0.035 0.9894 -1.401
F 6123 23.9% 49.19 72.14% 0.12 1.1221 -1.542
G 5634 23.35% 50.54 73.96% -0.078 0.8909 -1.26
H 6782 22.63% 50.76 69.29% 0.165 1.1235 -1.09
East 11329 40.61% 50.09 45.79% 0.551 1.5552 -1.377
Northeast 6762 38.51% 48.86 42.71% -0.336 0.5321 -1.723
Northwest 4364 27.75% 47.42 49.06% -0.095 0.7471 -1.47
Southeast 2309 23.86% 35.88 37.03% -0.917 0.1405 -1.845
Southwest 1969 17.52% 31.01 33.62% -0.517 0.8711 -1.969
West 7804 30.04% 48.72 51.41% -0.676 0.5375 -1.18

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 507 0.0% 37.29 60.55% -1.813 -1.0319 -0.999
Not Using Events or Tokens 12656 42.34% 45.72 53.83% 0.361 0.6829 -0.534
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1533 14.45% 63.1 78.8% 0.408 -0.2335 -0.03
Start of Game Growth 2024 13.99% 61.33 79.3% 1.111 0.5319 0.809
Unlimited Undo 3589 21.01% 51.48 73.64% 0.086 -0.1267 0.247
Using Tokens but Not Events 6454 13.26% 46.51 73.8% 0.187 0.1042 0.075

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11292 12.75 0.0%
II 32590 30.01 84.98%
III 8297 34.87 83.19%
IV 2849 38.76 20.67%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.044 Win Model: 0.042
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 35769 32.48% 48.15 61.34%
2 9645 28.81% 48.78 71.03%
3 3496 23.57% 51.84 73.4%
4 4673 18.92% 55.6 70.98%
5 179 34.08% 50.3 51.96%
6 1266 14.48% 30.31 32.86%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6438
Lose: Invader deck ran out 364
Lose: Adversary condition 4591
Win: Sacrifice victory 36
Lose: Scenario condition 2675
Win: Scenario condition 35149
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5336
Lose: Spirit destroyed 439

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)