Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 301 24.25% 47.83 -6.078 72.76% -0.69 -0.2219
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 264 25.38% 55.53 1.121 79.55% -0.399 -0.1687
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 167 38.32% 61.94 1.45 80.24% -0.361 0.8211
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 155 45.16% 60.44 10.617 69.03% 0.106 1.5291
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 45 68.89% 55.31 2.873 42.22% -0.394 1.0305
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 17.458 13.46% 0.145 2.2983
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 217 73.15% 48.15 -1.979 19.82% -0.817 1.4646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1246 19.94% 46.58 -3.995 81.3% -0.22 -0.3189
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 860 29.47% 47.92 -1.85 74.3% -0.902 -1.173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1110 25.05% 61.3 2.5 82.25% -0.601 -0.4408
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1005 28.61% 68.51 5.705 83.08% -0.35 0.0073
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 608 30.1% 73.65 5.84 82.57% -0.567 -0.2293
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 447 55.48% 68.75 12.602 61.3% 0.135 1.1111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2624 80.11% 60.84 11.218 38.95% -0.086 1.4073
The Kingdom of England 0 1 879 21.15% 45.96 -1.803 79.86% 0.44 0.8969
The Kingdom of England 1 3 563 27.27% 53.56 1.856 75.49% 0.097 0.6842
The Kingdom of England 2 4 491 40.9% 48.94 -1.834 58.86% -1.055 0.0942
The Kingdom of England 3 6 481 47.36% 51.15 1.266 48.02% -1.179 0.4311
The Kingdom of England 4 7 354 45.45% 57.17 -0.006 51.41% -0.833 0.5978
The Kingdom of England 5 9 199 75.76% 45.35 2.608 17.09% -1.02 1.118
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2291 68.88% 48.82 -0.788 14.54% -2.608 -0.129
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 634 26.42% 49.18 -1.98 78.08% -0.241 0.4763
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 350 42.0% 49.77 -2.109 69.14% -0.416 0.7436
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 732 25.27% 58.26 4.033 65.57% -0.144 1.8629
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 456 42.98% 52.86 3.315 42.98% -0.732 1.4444
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 369 41.73% 56.57 10.135 43.36% -0.159 2.0098
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 193 57.51% 64.17 5.077 46.11% -0.851 0.9438
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2307 42.47% 63.76 7.828 38.75% -1.425 0.772
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 43 11.63% 52.7 0.344 95.35% 0.765 0.5195
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 31 32.26% 51.26 -4.08 70.97% -0.992 -0.0381
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 19 42.11% 42.0 -1.031 42.11% -0.734 0.4017
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 47.83% 64.96 1.161 52.17% -0.588 0.2338
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 22 59.09% 55.32 -6.817 40.91% -0.953 0.139
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 74 64.86% 63.31 0.422 47.3% -1.06 0.2442
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 131 68.46% 59.12 1.65 19.08% -2.239 -0.5987
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 652 21.09% 45.67 -4.52 81.29% -0.26 -0.2033
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 510 22.0% 51.57 -1.183 85.29% 0.017 0.1216
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 509 30.24% 52.59 0.402 77.8% -0.265 0.0141
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 525 34.86% 63.14 0.527 81.9% -0.702 -0.2814
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 344 48.84% 62.82 9.631 76.45% 0.366 1.3911
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 153 56.86% 56.64 10.33 58.17% 0.117 1.3109
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 848 47.75% 68.46 9.468 71.23% -0.088 1.061
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 340 17.65% 50.64 -1.657 90.59% 0.292 -0.1228
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 245 26.12% 57.7 -1.427 81.22% -0.108 0.5383
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 203 20.69% 64.88 -3.714 85.22% -0.301 0.1956
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 100 47.0% 59.27 -10.636 63.0% -0.985 0.4278
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 59 35.59% 68.07 14.557 66.1% 0.062 1.1497
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 49 63.27% 68.2 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1475 41.11% 87.03 18.939 63.46% 0.29 2.2862

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 14327 29.76 51.49 75.43% 0.32 0.948 0.92
1 Thematic 6847 52.86 56.42 45.87% -0.053 1.0155 0.671
2 Archipelago 70 37.14 88.01 62.86% -0.167 0.9826 1.045
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3404 27.34 52.58 81.58% -0.019 0.4684 0.737
2 Coastline 351 32.46 51.81 72.36% 0.367 0.4916 0.011
2 Fragment 65 32.31 48.74 72.31% 0.584 0.8065 -0.864
2 Heart 65 26.15 52.52 40.0% -0.738 -0.2566 -2.078
2 Opposite Shores 1304 34.97 51.34 68.25% 0.016 0.5018 -0.008
2 Thematic 1647 45.64 53.8 55.25% -0.199 0.6869 0.167
2 Top to Top 101 33.0 59.07 81.19% 0.308 0.4962 1.472
3 Archipelago 18 27.78 79.89 77.78% -0.121 -0.075 0.31
3 Coastline 5 0.0 64.0 100.0% 0.037
3 Other 53 34.62 53.3 77.36% 0.459
3 Round (Default) 2097 21.23 55.07 83.26% 0.649 0.8827 -0.242
3 Sunrise 3 0.0 63.33 100.0% -0.23
3 Thematic 255 38.04 65.28 62.75% 0.245 0.7173 0.362
4 Archipelago 12 25.0 65.42 75.0% -0.424 -0.2454 -0.547
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.513 -0.0463 0.274
4 Leaf 11 27.27 52.91 81.82% -0.813
4 Other 65 18.46 58.23 86.15% 0.367 -0.204 -0.898
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1272 23.45 70.34 79.25% 0.55 0.7484 0.553
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1827 22.51 64.24 83.69% -0.308 -0.0525 -0.454
5 Archipelago 7 42.86 69.14 71.43% -0.401
5 Other 56 33.93 71.48 78.57% 0.034 -0.7093 0.356
5 Thematic 33 57.58 75.94 51.52% -0.565 -1.1829 -0.024
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 47.0 100.0%
6 Other 13 15.38 75.69 92.31% 0.015 -0.3007 -0.12
6 Star 2 0.0 58.0 50.0% 0.028
6 Thematic 108 22.22 62.86 57.41% -0.352 -0.277 -1.243
6 Two Centers (Default) 43 9.52 67.72 93.02% -0.731 -0.4799 -0.1

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 623 48.18 43.98% -1.331 0.644 -1.398
Aid From Lesser Spirits 578 50.01 48.44% -0.761 0.981 -1.207
All Things Weaken 386 47.4 43.78% -0.91 1.1582 -1.442
Back Against the Wall 564 47.58 42.91% -2.41 -0.4923 -1.73
Disintegrating Ecosystem 614 43.0 38.76% -1.132 0.9493 -1.742
Downward Spiral 2786 45.87 31.3% -1.56 0.3198 -1.51
Erosion of Will 677 46.05 41.95% -1.271 0.8162 -1.512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 178 56.47 74.72% 0.427 0.9436 -0.633
Memory Fades to Dust 2791 44.91 29.13% -1.82 0.2584 -1.627
Power Corrodes the Spirit 336 46.69 43.75% -1.356 0.5435 -1.598
Promising Farmlands 599 41.99 34.06% -1.956 0.0769 -1.963
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 118 55.58 70.34% -0.743 -0.2778 -0.375
Thriving Communities 306 42.82 28.76% -1.905 0.1426 -2.051
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.67
Unnatural Proliferation 353 46.6 40.23% -0.873 1.0561 -1.569
Untended Land Crumbles 367 46.11 44.96% -1.561 0.4384 -1.452

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6245 30.2% 53.07 77.65% -0.259 0.4874 -0.671
B 6512 27.7% 53.98 78.06% -0.237 0.4587 -0.858
C 6932 26.23% 55.8 79.88% 0.128 0.6145 -0.562
D 5975 27.5% 54.9 78.46% -0.179 0.5337 -0.713
E 2414 28.18% 55.04 78.5% 0.052 0.6138 -1.116
F 3870 24.43% 54.03 79.28% -0.425 0.2447 -1.002
G 3620 23.76% 55.72 81.05% -0.086 0.5154 -0.68
H 4354 24.4% 59.2 78.89% -0.177 0.4866 -0.534
East 7793 48.37% 58.8 51.88% 0.679 1.282 -0.895
Northeast 4471 47.79% 58.92 49.07% -0.496 0.1711 -1.494
Northwest 2388 37.42% 61.38 62.44% -0.245 0.281 -1.151
Southeast 877 40.14% 57.38 59.41% -0.105 0.6282 -1.322
Southwest 658 28.57% 51.17 56.53% -1.126 -0.2323 -1.694
West 4877 36.44% 59.81 62.46% -1.162 -0.3928 -0.807

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 303 0.0% 47.73 78.55% -0.526 1.6492 -0.352
Not Using Events or Tokens 8596 48.34% 51.87 54.47% 0.161 0.3962 -0.306
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1127 15.63% 66.32 84.47% 0.167 -1.0159 -0.081
Start of Game Growth 1471 15.02% 65.17 84.77% 0.477 0.0455 0.572
Unlimited Undo 2341 22.5% 56.27 82.49% -0.896 -1.3781 0.268
Using Tokens but Not Events 3676 14.61% 54.9 88.87% 0.561 0.7118 0.476

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4537 22.67 0.0%
II 21666 31.11 85.25%
III 5800 34.68 84.0%
IV 2066 37.94 19.46%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.838 Win Model: 0.571
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 21621 38.07% 53.32 64.89%
2 6627 31.12% 52.27 74.95%
3 2457 23.72% 56.57 80.55%
4 3167 21.93% 66.7 83.08%
5 51 33.33% 70.49 64.71%
6 146 16.55% 63.84 71.92%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 261
Lose: Adversary condition 3548
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 1980
Win: Scenario condition 23721
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4180
Lose: Spirit destroyed 356

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)