Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 240 22.5% 47.89 -2.372 73.33% -1.21 -0.9212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 173 23.7% 56.27 2.215 84.97% -0.303 0.1114
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 119 39.5% 61.29 4.752 79.83% -0.533 0.35
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 99 54.55% 55.62 2.36 64.65% -1.336 -0.0936
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 28 78.57% 55.36 2.595 50.0% -1.532 -0.0349
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 94.87% 35.1 -6.085 7.69% -3.044 -1.1053
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 164 74.39% 46.98 -1.704 21.95% -3.098 -1.055
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1326 20.56% 46.12 -2.693 80.77% -0.85 -0.8089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 966 30.08% 47.12 -1.87 73.5% -1.133 -1.1513
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 967 28.82% 59.38 3.816 81.7% -0.756 -0.7421
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1023 33.17% 66.88 7.366 81.92% -0.478 -0.1945
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 599 34.91% 71.76 9.768 81.47% -0.405 -0.0461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 493 55.28% 68.98 9.316 64.91% -1.02 -0.1954
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3218 81.27% 60.64 5.061 39.9% -1.74 -0.5009
The Kingdom of England 0 1 923 21.33% 45.98 -2.508 80.72% -0.714 -0.3841
The Kingdom of England 1 3 609 26.4% 53.49 1.256 77.34% -0.959 -0.4418
The Kingdom of England 2 4 534 41.7% 49.59 -0.708 61.05% -1.652 -0.6785
The Kingdom of England 3 6 522 52.45% 48.68 -0.983 44.83% -2.593 -1.0131
The Kingdom of England 4 7 405 51.86% 52.98 1.118 44.44% -2.455 -0.96
The Kingdom of England 5 9 158 75.32% 43.92 -3.013 18.99% -3.579 -1.5087
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2371 68.8% 48.47 -1.633 15.01% -3.841 -1.597
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 746 26.21% 49.68 -0.823 80.43% -0.82 -0.308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 360 39.17% 50.4 -0.383 72.5% -1.151 -0.2481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 721 25.1% 56.01 1.482 63.38% -2.206 -0.0645
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 637 45.6% 50.99 -0.314 41.6% -2.917 -0.7188
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 459 36.68% 58.43 3.084 48.8% -2.718 -0.5569
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 220 49.09% 61.83 5.383 48.18% -2.316 -0.4988
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2288 37.36% 61.11 4.335 38.64% -3.113 -1.0222
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 730 22.1% 45.85 -2.661 81.92% -0.623 -0.534
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 580 22.74% 52.01 0.041 86.38% -0.246 -0.2112
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 497 30.91% 52.19 0.38 78.07% -0.788 -0.5509
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 552 38.84% 62.38 5.46 82.61% -0.417 -0.1271
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 362 54.42% 59.8 4.506 72.1% -0.822 -0.0408
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 210 62.86% 55.03 2.988 54.29% -1.357 -0.1886
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 884 45.53% 69.16 6.76 73.76% -1.428 -0.3053
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 232 16.81% 50.07 -1.19 90.95% 0.218 0.1297
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 157 22.29% 56.71 1.577 85.35% -0.499 0.2803
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 110 14.55% 66.97 5.171 91.82% -0.157 0.2552
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 75 52.0% 58.36 4.023 62.67% -1.311 -0.0664
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 41 41.46% 62.34 5.461 60.98% -1.859 -0.7511
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 26 61.54% 59.12 4.236 42.31% -1.9 0.0838
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 839 28.52% 93.77 19.135 80.21% -1.108 0.7645

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14440 31.26 50.22 -1.49 74.07% 0.015 0.1012
1 Thematic 7604 55.24 56.25 1.624 43.42% -0.271 0.0055
2 Archipelago 33 9.09 99.91 16.887 93.94% 0.59 0.597
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3923 27.9 52.05 -0.558 81.8% 0.285 0.3108
2 Coastline 413 36.25 50.97 -1.089 76.27% 0.05 0.0256
2 Fragment 98 25.51 50.11 -1.129 76.53% -0.142 0.0811
2 Heart 74 50.0 43.32 -4.19 58.11% -0.508 -0.4084
2 Opposite Shores 1046 22.49 48.8 -1.613 82.12% 0.366 0.431
2 Thematic 2152 39.27 52.66 -1.327 61.99% -0.462 -0.5287
2 Top to Top 113 31.86 56.04 1.306 78.76% 0.479 0.4101
3 Archipelago 10 0.0 93.4 14.803 100.0% 0.218 1.0228
3 Coastline 8 37.5 54.13 -0.747 75.0% -0.087 -0.2379
3 Other 66 33.85 52.61 -0.512 77.27% -0.058 0.1144
3 Round (Default) 2036 23.39 54.32 0.019 82.47% 0.17 0.1314
3 Sunrise 4 25.0 57.0 0.517 100.0% 0.189 -0.0709
3 Thematic 286 38.81 63.36 1.721 65.38% -0.02 -0.3862
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 56.5 -3.201 100.0% 0.016 0.5634
4 Coastline 1 0.0 26.0 -16.433 0.0% -0.936 -0.8165
4 Leaf 10 10.0 47.1 -4.209 80.0% -0.686 -0.6138
4 Other 68 11.94 54.87 -1.001 88.24% -0.238 -0.3076
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 4.878 100.0% 0.119 0.2446
4 Thematic 1254 26.84 68.93 3.028 77.19% 0.035 -0.962
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1955 22.63 62.5 2.819 83.32% 0.256 0.2638
5 Archipelago 2 50.0 52.5 -2.551 50.0% -0.357 0.8031
5 Other 9 22.22 71.0 5.66 77.78% -0.251 -0.7119
5 Thematic 6 50.0 91.0 14.129 100.0% 1.275 -1.1162

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 713 47.9 -3.93 47.97% -1.65 0.4196
Aid From Lesser Spirits 669 49.56 -2.99 51.27% -1.557 0.3561
All Things Weaken 253 46.21 -4.99 48.62% -1.719 0.44
Back Against the Wall 622 48.25 -3.747 46.95% -1.695 0.3918
Disintegrating Ecosystem 675 41.08 -7.229 37.78% -2.203 0.0189
Downward Spiral 3259 46.28 -4.969 33.05% -1.985 0.0369
Erosion of Will 726 45.32 -5.02 44.77% -1.851 0.3569
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 121 54.48 0.214 76.03% -0.315 0.3639
Memory Fades to Dust 3311 45.56 -5.352 30.75% -2.103 0.1119
Power Corrodes the Spirit 218 43.69 -5.777 44.04% -1.962 0.0589
Promising Farmlands 679 40.1 -7.558 32.11% -2.425 -0.2169
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 86 54.8 -0.719 72.09% -0.713 -0.3019
Thriving Communities 190 39.95 -7.939 30.53% -2.576 -0.4874
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.504 36.11% -2.129 0.0959
Unnatural Proliferation 232 44.88 -5.123 44.4% -1.983 0.0978
Untended Land Crumbles 234 44.21 -5.71 47.01% -1.893 0.2094

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7164 29.87% 51.5 -0.776 77.89% -0.025 -0.7125
B 7644 28.38% 53.15 -0.056 78.89% 0.121 -0.6625
C 7934 27.17% 53.09 0.03 79.98% 0.197 -0.8159
D 7159 27.89% 53.5 0.135 79.17% 0.164 -0.6137
E 1595 28.77% 54.05 -0.17 78.06% 0.111 -0.783
F 2888 23.99% 53.61 -0.494 79.26% -0.069 -0.9094
G 2777 24.07% 55.48 0.269 80.63% 0.126 -0.7056
H 3296 22.56% 60.21 1.856 80.73% 0.059 -0.7797
East 5473 44.03% 60.29 2.301 59.14% 0.18 -0.3959
Northeast 4761 49.63% 57.94 1.164 48.98% 0.052 -0.4731
Northwest 2634 39.94% 59.98 0.899 62.19% 0.011 -0.5836
Southeast 552 42.21% 55.77 -0.024 61.05% 0.203 -0.426
Southwest 370 29.46% 48.72 -5.042 58.38% -1.206 -1.4045
West 3980 35.16% 60.83 1.401 66.38% -0.033 -0.3603

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 405 0.0% 50.11 -2.942 79.75% -1.537 0.5156
Not Using Events or Tokens 10138 48.71% 51.6 -0.875 54.0% -0.239 -0.0238
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1274 12.91% 67.52 5.313 86.34% 1.014 0.3282
Start of Game Growth 1543 13.54% 65.72 3.938 86.52% 0.369 -0.0995
Unlimited Undo 3101 21.24% 55.23 0.425 82.1% 0.116 -0.3066
Using Tokens but Not Events 3769 15.5% 52.78 -0.65 89.47% 0.639 0.5883

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4843 22.37 0.0%
II 22638 30.88 84.59%
III 6043 34.39 83.55%
IV 2090 37.55 17.8%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.607 Win Model: 0.014
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 22104 39.6% 52.4 63.5%
2 7813 30.85% 51.67 75.9%
3 2410 25.44% 55.5 80.46%
4 3287 23.94% 64.74 81.08%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 327
Lose: Adversary condition 3774
Win: Sacrifice victory 11
Lose: Scenario condition 2018
Win: Scenario condition 24560
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4543
Lose: Spirit destroyed 381

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)