Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 375 26.93% 45.88 3.263 67.2% 0.009 0.3994
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -7.798 76.64% -0.957 -0.6726
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 210 38.57% 57.31 0.946 73.33% -0.078 0.6733
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 202 45.05% 58.02 -6.521 64.36% -1.277 -0.1591
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -14.618 37.74% -1.087 0.2319
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 277 64.86% 43.24 -10.657 18.05% -1.911 0.0498
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1407 19.9% 45.31 -0.926 79.03% -0.086 0.1169
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1032 28.29% 46.01 -1.445 71.32% -0.461 -0.435
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1328 24.26% 58.41 1.021 78.01% -0.488 -0.4385
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1244 28.77% 63.87 6.676 77.41% -0.198 0.0731
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 791 27.43% 65.63 -0.167 74.08% -0.595 -0.3089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 499 52.3% 67.37 -1.296 60.92% -0.805 -0.2333
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2998 76.0% 56.76 -7.919 36.32% -2.384 -0.9617
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1023 22.21% 43.94 -2.94 75.66% -0.666 -0.3188
The Kingdom of England 1 3 646 28.62% 52.38 -0.637 73.22% -0.549 -0.2795
The Kingdom of England 2 4 659 40.94% 44.44 -6.556 52.05% -1.767 -1.0669
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -5.791 43.95% -1.645 -0.4232
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -10.326 50.12% -1.497 -0.384
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -9.591 16.13% -1.151 0.4071
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2743 62.99% 45.43 -7.61 14.4% -3.069 -1.1126
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 701 26.32% 48.82 4.957 77.46% 0.811 1.3071
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 402 41.54% 48.35 -6.081 66.92% -1.406 -0.586
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1097 22.79% 54.21 5.874 61.44% -0.461 0.5719
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 508 41.73% 52.52 4.431 43.31% -1.335 0.0741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 17.301 43.26% 0.09 1.5225
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 349 48.42% 48.15 -1.611 30.66% -1.373 -0.4846
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3340 38.07% 55.99 2.838 35.12% -0.95 0.4409
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 124 12.9% 42.11 8.81 69.35% 0.819 1.0812
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 84 38.1% 43.07 -1.704 54.76% -1.096 -0.575
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 73 38.36% 38.85 2.632 45.21% 0.063 0.3112
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 89 43.82% 52.87 5.92 42.7% -0.764 -0.3311
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 77 41.56% 56.1 7.648 50.65% -0.457 0.4081
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 140 59.29% 62.01 6.064 47.86% -0.77 -0.0021
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 459 63.1% 46.81 2.723 14.16% -1.622 -0.6115
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 762 23.54% 43.51 -2.55 77.17% -0.538 -0.3792
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 598 22.11% 49.79 -2.995 82.11% -0.536 -0.396
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 608 31.9% 50.39 0.878 74.18% -0.32 -0.1688
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 826 24.58% 43.96 -6.664 57.02% -1.849 -1.4358
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 393 46.06% 60.01 -2.154 73.03% -0.96 -0.2303
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 17.852 56.44% 0.483 1.364
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 991 44.89% 62.88 -2.873 65.19% -1.244 -0.2617
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 442 18.78% 45.96 -4.747 81.0% -0.522 -0.4228
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 1.768 75.85% -0.23 0.7355
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 241 21.99% 62.66 4.924 82.16% -0.155 0.1195
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 128 47.66% 55.94 8.829 59.38% -0.2 0.9058
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 0.473 61.04% -0.954 0.0059
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 61 62.3% 59.77 -7.917 34.43% -1.559 0.0876
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2116 33.38% 69.93 -4.196 51.09% -0.919 0.8749

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18534 28.61 49.58 72.83% 0.482 0.6111 1.002
1 Thematic 7587 51.7 54.43 44.79% -0.233 0.3482 0.73
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.637 -0.3177 0.109
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4040 25.83 51.39 80.97% 1.243 1.2084 0.98
2 Coastline 486 28.21 48.08 69.55% -0.228 -0.1758 0.321
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.349 0.0433 -0.486
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.636 -0.7 -1.612
2 Opposite Shores 1835 29.11 41.84 54.55% -0.642 -0.6617 0.155
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1844 43.25 51.37 52.82% 0.195 0.4012 0.312
2 Top to Top 127 33.33 56.98 77.95% 0.971 0.8228 1.416
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.424 -0.9388 -0.226
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.529 -0.4191 0.505
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.952 0.4283 0.999
3 Round (Default) 2409 21.4 53.4 80.66% 0.873 0.5278 0.228
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.614
3 Thematic 296 35.14 60.33 59.12% 0.269 -0.0913 0.591
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.562
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.103
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.473 0.315 -0.58
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.273
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1557 21.59 63.21 71.29% -0.38 -0.3823 0.643
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2027 21.98 61.45 80.02% -0.375 -0.4793 -0.143
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.265 -0.0852 -0.089
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.013 -1.0973 0.112
5 Thematic 53 50.94 73.34 52.83% 1.014 0.9903 0.179
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% -0.626 -1.7369 0.565
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.326 0.366 -0.586
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.181 -1.0438 -1.286
6 Thematic 530 9.43 23.72 22.08% -1.598 -0.9511 -1.777
6 Two Centers (Default) 75 29.73 57.96 74.67% -0.218 -0.4729 -0.377

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 722 47.35 42.8% -0.291 -0.145 -1.178
Aid From Lesser Spirits 643 50.02 47.74% -0.175 -0.3034 -0.977
All Things Weaken 452 46.61 42.26% -0.554 -0.2232 -1.117
Attenuated Essence 44 47.11 29.55% -0.295 -0.2463 -1.345
Back Against the Wall 635 46.77 42.05% -0.654 -0.6151 -1.428
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 56 41.04 30.36% -0.785 -0.6288 -1.395
Burn Brightest Before the End 40 41.4 27.5% -0.809 -0.7509 -1.599
Disintegrating Ecosystem 699 42.34 37.34% -0.527 -0.1599 -1.528
Downward Spiral 3150 44.66 31.97% -0.68 -0.5073 -1.226
Erosion of Will 766 45.54 40.73% -0.792 -0.5575 -1.216
Intensifying Exploitation 50 36.16 26.0% -0.384 -0.132 -1.258
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 54.69 70.95% -0.694 -1.2784 -0.237
Memory Fades to Dust 3163 43.64 29.85% -0.985 -0.6908 -1.362
Power Corrodes the Spirit 402 45.89 42.29% -0.549 -0.3845 -1.205
Promising Farmlands 693 42.02 33.91% 0.039 0.3645 -1.61
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 40.14 28.57% -0.031 0.0616 -1.516
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 35.62 24.32% -1.119 -0.7394 -1.776
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.309 -0.4391 -0.093
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.249 -0.2199 -0.608
Thriving Communities 377 41.82 27.85% -0.738 -0.4308 -1.759
Thriving Crops 21 44.81 57.14% -0.273 -0.3607 -0.358
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.422
Unnatural Proliferation 434 45.3 37.56% -1.305 -1.1369 -1.361
Untended Land Crumbles 433 45.19 43.42% 0.182 0.4383 -1.126

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8044 28.12% 48.72 71.46% -0.733 0.3872 -1.117
B 7922 27.29% 51.57 74.89% -0.61 0.4149 -1.156
C 8521 25.87% 54.15 76.7% -0.751 0.1095 -0.856
D 7303 27.36% 52.09 74.04% -0.846 0.1912 -1.113
E 3250 27.46% 53.68 74.34% -0.088 0.7845 -1.226
F 4772 24.98% 51.29 74.94% -0.771 0.2045 -1.525
G 4338 24.19% 53.44 78.05% -0.548 0.3936 -1.044
H 5397 23.13% 53.43 72.02% -0.674 0.2941 -0.9
East 9226 44.19% 54.14 48.36% -0.123 0.8556 -1.24
Northeast 5461 41.94% 52.84 44.83% -0.648 0.2489 -1.723
Northwest 3214 31.66% 51.71 52.58% -0.943 0.0477 -1.505
Southeast 1466 28.85% 42.03 42.84% -0.805 0.1256 -1.7
Southwest 1186 20.32% 35.89 39.21% -1.791 -0.3531 -1.76
West 5983 33.33% 53.49 55.79% -0.839 0.2627 -1.063

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 360 0.0% 43.72 71.39% -1.677 -1.0241 -0.256
Not Using Events or Tokens 10224 45.36% 49.31 55.26% 0.098 0.5978 -0.357
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1305 15.41% 65.65 82.3% 0.86 0.2652 0.088
Start of Game Growth 1689 15.05% 64.16 82.47% 0.883 0.4592 0.689
Unlimited Undo 2830 21.87% 53.56 77.63% 0.091 -0.0182 0.114
Using Tokens but Not Events 4901 14.4% 49.19 77.84% 0.187 0.2616 0.135

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7252 16.7 0.0%
II 25754 30.58 85.22%
III 6714 34.75 83.27%
IV 2398 38.31 19.93%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.009 Win Model: 0.695
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27071 35.59% 50.42 62.79%
2 7841 30.31% 51.05 73.2%
3 2828 23.59% 54.68 77.83%
4 3647 21.21% 62.43 77.52%
5 95 31.58% 59.6 53.68%
6 636 11.34% 28.85 31.29%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2433
Lose: Invader deck ran out 316
Lose: Adversary condition 3996
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2270
Win: Scenario condition 27988
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4693
Lose: Spirit destroyed 393

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-23 04:37:22 (Pacific Time)