Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 391 27.37% 45.6 3.153 66.24% 0.048 0.4419
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 318 26.1% 53.02 -1.23 76.1% -0.404 -0.1645
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 229 38.86% 54.54 -7.054 69.43% -1.254 -0.3542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 209 44.98% 57.41 0.03 63.64% -0.446 0.4364
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 0.0 37.74%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -4.464 12.96% -0.683 0.8798
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 287 63.99% 43.22 -2.036 18.47% -1.235 0.7826
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1499 19.66% 44.03 -7.181 76.65% -1.08 -0.8141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1079 27.52% 45.41 -4.299 70.53% -0.81 -0.7264
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1533 22.38% 55.3 0.702 74.1% -0.637 -0.5337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1284 28.49% 63.29 2.9 76.64% -0.704 -0.5027
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 812 27.34% 64.77 -4.376 73.15% -0.804 -0.4469
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 520 51.54% 66.27 0.521 60.0% -1.503 -1.0153
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3118 74.16% 55.64 -5.769 35.86% -1.92 -0.5875
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1064 22.05% 43.53 -1.226 74.81% -0.251 0.157
The Kingdom of England 1 3 673 29.4% 51.75 2.882 72.07% 0.054 0.3984
The Kingdom of England 2 4 687 40.73% 44.57 4.631 52.4% -0.458 0.1849
The Kingdom of England 3 6 594 44.37% 46.72 -10.073 42.42% -1.828 -0.6879
The Kingdom of England 4 7 414 42.23% 55.19 -5.574 49.28% -1.71 -0.466
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -3.819 15.84% -1.025 0.5311
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2855 61.43% 44.74 -5.637 14.71% -2.262 -0.2107
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 717 26.15% 48.68 3.534 77.13% 0.221 0.6644
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 413 41.4% 48.12 0.251 66.59% -0.072 0.6464
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1157 22.73% 54.18 5.097 61.62% -0.635 0.3381
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 546 42.12% 51.78 0.897 43.22% -1.016 0.2508
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 392 41.07% 56.39 0.519 43.37% -0.871 0.4685
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 376 48.4% 47.6 -2.061 29.52% -1.126 -0.2224
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3723 35.98% 54.83 0.817 35.59% -0.956 0.4926
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 158 13.29% 38.72 -5.074 62.66% -0.578 -0.3653
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 97 39.18% 41.68 -7.213 52.58% -1.202 -0.7199
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 89 34.83% 36.73 -4.014 41.57% -1.199 -0.6936
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 122 41.8% 47.76 9.168 37.7% -0.024 0.3806
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 0.193 48.84% -0.626 -0.0047
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 188 58.51% 59.03 3.284 46.28% -0.626 -0.0965
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 571 62.46% 43.64 -3.81 14.54% -2.274 -1.202
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 827 22.77% 42.07 -5.51 74.49% -0.566 -0.2789
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 615 22.96% 49.37 -0.275 81.14% -0.148 -0.0493
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 648 31.63% 49.48 -1.873 72.84% -0.906 -0.736
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 914 22.54% 40.73 -6.28 52.84% -1.688 -1.3082
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 411 45.5% 58.69 -4.448 71.29% -1.133 -0.4864
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 208 52.88% 53.15 -9.888 56.25% -0.975 0.0247
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1058 44.74% 60.82 -6.788 62.76% -1.716 -0.6792
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 465 19.35% 44.76 -3.962 78.71% -0.316 -0.2117
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 304 27.3% 53.76 -1.32 75.0% -0.133 0.784
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 254 22.05% 61.49 0.621 80.71% -0.04 0.4464
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 132 47.73% 55.0 6.187 58.33% -0.031 0.9542
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 42.968 61.54% 0.39 1.2619
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 82 50.0% 46.41 -9.684 26.83% -0.303 1.0913
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2534 32.42% 66.15 3.458 49.41% -0.926 0.8138

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20053 28.37 49.33 71.71% 0.764 1.114 1.047
1 Thematic 7788 51.04 53.83 44.56% 0.43 0.9171 0.743
2 Archipelago 164 44.51 53.15 28.66% -0.669 -0.2317 0.003
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4247 25.3 50.58 79.96% 0.296 0.5632 0.992
2 Coastline 568 25.67 42.76 62.32% -0.293 -0.2575 0.05
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.609 0.306 -0.415
2 Heart 93 39.78 49.84 32.26% 0.179 0.2058 -1.438
2 Opposite Shores 1900 28.8 41.45 54.21% 0.098 0.1586 0.212
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1879 42.77 50.97 52.63% -0.553 -0.2474 0.282
2 Top to Top 146 30.34 52.27 70.55% -0.657 -0.7243 1.093
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.098
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.576
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 0.962 0.4633 1.109
3 Round (Default) 2533 21.68 52.49 79.12% 0.296 0.1277 0.302
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.517 -0.3539 0.598
3 Thematic 316 34.18 58.41 57.59% -0.489 -0.9056 0.586
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.404
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.152
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.525
4 Other 71 23.94 58.04 83.1% 0.156 -0.132 -0.134
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1691 20.41 60.33 68.42% -0.39 -0.3731 0.568
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2158 21.46 59.88 78.22% -0.248 -0.0291 -0.183
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% 0.02
5 Other 103 29.13 55.14 61.17% -0.409 -0.989 0.003
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.149 -0.3995 0.238
6 Archipelago 12 8.33 59.92 75.0% -0.082 -1.072 0.804
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% -0.366
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.258
6 Thematic 651 10.14 23.07 21.2% -0.267 -0.3823 -1.742
6 Two Centers (Default) 120 35.29 50.85 60.83% -1.047 -1.2868 -1.047
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.267
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.784

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 758 47.33 42.88% -0.225 -0.0454 -1.101
Aid From Lesser Spirits 667 49.81 47.68% -0.204 -0.2712 -0.896
All Things Weaken 484 46.85 42.56% -0.255 0.0592 -0.991
Attenuated Essence 61 45.18 29.51% 0.216 0.2809 -0.966
Back Against the Wall 660 47.08 42.27% 0.542 0.6166 -1.329
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 73 38.79 26.03% -1.001 -0.798 -1.397
Burn Brightest Before the End 53 38.74 22.64% -1.203 -1.022 -1.966
Disintegrating Ecosystem 740 41.75 36.76% -0.865 -0.4467 -1.48
Downward Spiral 3225 44.43 32.22% -0.461 -0.3456 -1.135
Erosion of Will 812 45.35 40.39% -0.934 -0.6459 -1.176
Intensifying Exploitation 72 36.44 25.0% -0.345 -0.0823 -1.303
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 222 55.71 71.17% 0.639 0.1264 -0.1
Memory Fades to Dust 3247 43.5 30.21% 0.038 0.2637 -1.268
Power Corrodes the Spirit 426 46.66 43.43% 0.172 0.3808 -1.059
Promising Farmlands 716 41.99 33.94% -0.56 -0.2617 -1.516
Shattered Fragments of Power 45 37.0 22.22% -1.32 -1.1245 -1.721
Slow Dissolution of Will 53 40.51 32.08% 0.217 0.5977 -1.309
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 138 53.95 68.12% 0.146 -0.4542 -0.051
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% 0.13 -0.4115 -0.67
Thriving Communities 404 41.35 27.72% -0.611 -0.2655 -1.685
Thriving Crops 31 38.03 41.94% -1.005 -0.9914 -0.891
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.355
Unnatural Proliferation 458 44.95 36.9% -0.944 -0.8131 -1.293
Untended Land Crumbles 459 44.95 42.7% -0.152 0.236 -1.053

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8637 27.8% 47.91 70.06% -0.874 -0.0057 -1.22
B 8497 27.26% 50.71 73.31% -0.613 0.2091 -1.258
C 9093 25.51% 53.36 75.5% -0.348 0.3323 -0.916
D 7922 26.78% 50.66 71.91% -0.817 -0.0027 -1.224
E 3607 27.25% 52.29 71.78% -0.515 0.1652 -1.317
F 5053 24.73% 50.73 73.8% -0.577 0.2158 -1.543
G 4631 24.22% 52.62 76.48% -0.819 0.0208 -1.15
H 5716 22.87% 52.41 70.68% -0.81 -0.0407 -1.022
East 9689 42.82% 52.83 47.53% -0.346 0.5317 -1.266
Northeast 5816 40.22% 51.1 43.78% -0.63 0.1866 -1.747
Northwest 3499 30.22% 49.53 50.44% -0.894 -0.0171 -1.552
Southeast 1655 27.55% 39.88 40.54% -0.757 0.153 -1.722
Southwest 1370 20.44% 33.93 36.42% -1.69 -0.3669 -1.837
West 6366 32.37% 51.83 54.16% -0.24 0.7879 -1.077

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 388 0.0% 42.84 69.33% -0.33 0.4545 -0.609
Not Using Events or Tokens 10641 44.47% 48.57 55.03% -0.701 -0.3231 -0.4
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1372 14.99% 65.54 81.71% 1.543 0.919 0.163
Start of Game Growth 1766 14.61% 63.84 81.71% -0.098 -0.7069 0.649
Unlimited Undo 2950 21.72% 53.11 76.75% -0.016 0.0288 0.14
Using Tokens but Not Events 5198 14.13% 47.81 75.49% -0.364 -0.419 0.069

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8226 15.67 0.0%
II 27133 30.47 84.97%
III 7029 34.79 83.16%
IV 2512 38.42 20.14%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.158 Win Model: 0.639
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 28928 34.87% 49.86 62.09%
2 8144 29.84% 50.5 72.78%
3 2986 23.57% 53.5 76.16%
4 3920 20.69% 60.35 75.08%
5 123 30.89% 52.82 49.59%
6 799 13.05% 28.25 29.91%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3448
Lose: Invader deck ran out 327
Lose: Adversary condition 4096
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2366
Win: Scenario condition 29376
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4855
Lose: Spirit destroyed 403

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-05 06:17:53 (Pacific Time)