Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 379 27.18% 45.66 1.349 66.49% -0.221 0.2531
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 309 25.57% 53.49 -0.276 76.7% -0.081 0.2137
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 216 38.89% 56.24 -5.658 71.76% -0.814 -0.0542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 206 44.66% 57.01 -14.593 63.11% -1.615 -0.6366
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -15.956 37.74% -0.751 0.6878
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 283 64.54% 43.2 -8.744 18.37% -1.347 0.7337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1434 19.68% 45.02 -3.499 78.52% -0.406 -0.1769
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1049 27.93% 45.71 -2.547 70.92% -0.336 -0.2188
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1397 23.78% 57.28 1.699 76.52% -0.33 -0.2115
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1256 28.57% 63.48 -3.41 76.91% -1.254 -1.0261
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 806 27.54% 65.06 1.716 73.45% -0.706 -0.4375
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 510 51.57% 67.03 6.61 60.78% -0.561 0.0432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3052 75.15% 56.28 -7.929 36.11% -2.223 -0.7525
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1040 21.98% 43.75 0.341 75.38% 0.187 0.5077
The Kingdom of England 1 3 660 28.77% 51.99 0.487 72.73% -0.185 0.1397
The Kingdom of England 2 4 675 40.56% 44.47 -1.126 52.3% -0.676 0.0633
The Kingdom of England 3 6 572 45.74% 47.83 -3.938 43.36% -1.373 -0.1831
The Kingdom of England 4 7 404 42.54% 56.2 -1.815 50.25% -0.962 0.2468
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -15.685 16.13% -0.72 0.9213
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2779 62.56% 45.42 -4.366 14.68% -1.922 0.1257
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 709 26.31% 48.75 -0.425 77.29% -0.144 0.4181
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 405 41.48% 48.27 -5.817 66.67% -1.134 -0.4364
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1130 22.92% 54.39 5.863 61.77% -0.248 0.8671
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 522 41.76% 52.4 1.488 43.49% -0.916 0.4923
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 388 41.49% 56.57 26.621 43.56% 0.181 1.6551
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 363 49.04% 48.81 0.921 30.58% -0.821 0.2298
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3523 37.14% 56.33 9.327 36.25% -0.582 0.8373
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 143 13.29% 39.72 -3.356 63.64% -0.521 -0.2626
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 89 38.2% 42.88 -2.119 55.06% -0.513 0.1184
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 82 35.37% 38.67 0.244 45.12% -0.503 -0.0432
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 118 42.37% 48.43 -2.264 38.14% -1.526 -1.0788
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 82 43.9% 54.15 -5.202 47.56% -1.591 -0.7821
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 160 58.13% 62.02 5.747 47.5% -0.913 -0.3461
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 526 62.67% 44.68 -4.417 14.45% -2.327 -1.37
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 777 23.6% 43.25 -3.95 76.71% -0.47 -0.269
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 609 22.7% 49.52 -1.626 81.44% -0.392 -0.3526
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 626 31.78% 50.28 2.739 74.12% 0.023 0.2387
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 845 24.02% 43.17 -10.033 55.98% -2.511 -2.1355
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 402 45.77% 59.3 -5.757 72.14% -1.363 -0.6727
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 204 53.92% 53.81 16.286 56.86% 0.562 1.3419
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1019 44.94% 62.23 -2.425 64.57% -0.923 0.177
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 455 19.34% 45.09 -10.216 79.34% -0.75 -0.5574
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 295 27.8% 54.32 -4.296 75.59% -0.335 0.521
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 248 22.18% 62.18 5.556 81.45% -0.064 0.165
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 131 47.33% 55.24 4.381 58.78% -0.177 0.8843
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 3.356 61.04% -0.682 0.297
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 74 55.41% 51.43 -14.68 29.73% -2.413 -0.7258
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2180 33.52% 69.66 5.407 51.01% -0.659 1.0091

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19207 28.46 49.52 72.33% 0.406 0.4384 0.944
1 Thematic 7650 51.61 54.28 44.69% -0.294 0.1625 0.66
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.172 0.3044 0.106
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4151 25.57 51.06 80.66% 0.476 0.4186 0.941
2 Coastline 500 28.22 47.89 69.6% 0.302 0.1896 0.332
2 Fragment 79 27.85 48.37 73.42% 0.536 0.0916 -0.486
2 Heart 92 39.13 49.95 31.52% -0.472 -0.5425 -1.589
2 Opposite Shores 1856 29.16 41.98 54.74% 0.165 -0.0311 0.139
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1850 43.22 51.33 52.86% -0.1 0.1034 0.25
2 Top to Top 128 33.07 56.9 78.13% 0.332 0.1415 1.318
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% 0.273 -0.8221 -0.248
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.395 -0.276 0.574
3 Other 63 33.87 51.67 76.19% 0.663 0.3459 0.973
3 Round (Default) 2478 21.59 52.87 79.66% -0.275 -0.5626 0.253
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.6
3 Thematic 306 34.31 58.82 57.84% -1.184 -1.5881 0.569
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.492
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.186
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.44 1.2722 -0.552
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.205
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1609 21.21 62.17 70.29% 0.103 0.3327 0.649
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2077 21.77 60.65 79.1% -0.309 -0.0313 -0.15
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.045 -0.0947 -0.065
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.404 -0.309 0.18
5 Thematic 60 50.0 69.03 50.0% 0.697 0.8426 0.197
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.752
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.076 0.5176 -0.409
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.197
6 Thematic 575 10.78 24.11 22.09% -0.504 -0.3705 -1.671
6 Two Centers (Default) 92 31.87 54.22 68.48% -1.162 -1.0841 -0.697
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.65 -0.1623 -0.308
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.802

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 735 47.4 42.86% -0.249 -0.1155 -1.146
Aid From Lesser Spirits 655 49.9 47.63% -0.485 -0.5295 -0.924
All Things Weaken 465 46.48 42.37% -0.067 0.3068 -1.095
Attenuated Essence 54 44.78 27.78% -0.821 -0.7116 -1.161
Back Against the Wall 647 46.64 41.73% -0.627 -0.5557 -1.408
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 66 39.79 27.27% -0.817 -0.6007 -1.425
Burn Brightest Before the End 47 39.72 25.53% -1.508 -1.4036 -1.861
Disintegrating Ecosystem 721 41.99 37.03% -1.019 -0.6738 -1.513
Downward Spiral 3186 44.56 32.14% -1.083 -0.8886 -1.198
Erosion of Will 789 45.64 40.68% -0.525 -0.2519 -1.184
Intensifying Exploitation 63 35.4 23.81% -0.488 -0.233 -1.485
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 214 55.14 71.03% -0.248 -0.7474 -0.173
Memory Fades to Dust 3195 43.54 29.92% -0.756 -0.443 -1.34
Power Corrodes the Spirit 410 46.23 42.68% -0.398 -0.1094 -1.122
Promising Farmlands 701 42.02 34.09% -0.397 -0.0612 -1.561
Shattered Fragments of Power 40 37.67 25.0% -0.953 -0.846 -1.648
Slow Dissolution of Will 44 39.05 27.27% 0.08 0.4986 -1.562
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 133 54.23 68.42% 0.402 -0.2196 -0.057
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.09 -0.4217 -0.713
Thriving Communities 385 41.48 27.27% -1.707 -1.3735 -1.746
Thriving Crops 25 40.56 48.0% -0.89 -0.9807 -0.804
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.385
Unnatural Proliferation 446 44.99 37.0% -1.049 -0.8941 -1.34
Untended Land Crumbles 442 44.74 42.76% -0.692 -0.3864 -1.132

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8298 28.0% 48.5 71.05% -0.337 0.6072 -1.095
B 8177 27.33% 51.2 74.2% -0.387 0.4767 -1.146
C 8756 25.71% 53.81 76.22% -0.373 0.3524 -0.829
D 7511 27.1% 51.71 73.52% -0.48 0.4132 -1.105
E 3392 27.68% 53.37 73.58% 0.04 0.7826 -1.189
F 4898 24.85% 50.99 74.36% -0.615 0.2136 -1.484
G 4484 24.28% 53.09 77.23% -0.409 0.4077 -1.05
H 5530 23.05% 53.12 71.61% -0.277 0.5347 -0.889
East 9378 43.84% 53.77 48.12% 0.088 0.9836 -1.194
Northeast 5586 41.46% 52.31 44.5% -0.62 0.1574 -1.673
Northwest 3324 31.24% 50.98 51.87% -0.461 0.3923 -1.465
Southeast 1532 28.92% 41.56 42.1% -0.37 0.4653 -1.632
Southwest 1257 20.92% 35.51 38.35% -1.468 -0.1166 -1.734
West 6132 33.1% 52.91 55.19% -0.419 0.5969 -1.002

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 373 0.0% 43.34 70.78% -1.188 -0.3558 -0.317
Not Using Events or Tokens 10390 45.04% 49.07 55.35% -0.157 0.2825 -0.356
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1333 15.21% 65.73 82.15% 1.477 0.9397 0.102
Start of Game Growth 1720 14.77% 64.13 82.33% 0.825 0.2888 0.702
Unlimited Undo 2876 21.83% 53.32 77.29% 0.074 0.1055 0.113
Using Tokens but Not Events 4977 14.33% 48.87 77.36% -0.511 -0.5157 0.115

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7583 16.25 0.0%
II 26356 30.54 85.1%
III 6867 34.77 83.25%
IV 2459 38.37 20.01%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.121 Win Model: 0.474
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27813 35.33% 50.32 62.62%
2 7996 30.1% 50.83 73.11%
3 2907 23.66% 54.09 76.95%
4 3752 20.98% 61.52 76.47%
5 100 32.0% 57.97 53.0%
6 697 12.95% 29.19 30.99%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2760
Lose: Invader deck ran out 320
Lose: Adversary condition 4051
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2321
Win: Scenario condition 28609
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4775
Lose: Spirit destroyed 400

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-12 05:47:45 (Pacific Time)