Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 373 27.08% 45.76 2.105 67.02% -0.08 0.3185
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -3.182 76.64% -0.618 -0.3098
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 205 38.05% 57.86 1.051 74.15% -0.326 0.4457
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 201 45.27% 58.31 -5.777 64.68% -1.191 -0.0869
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -13.545 37.74% -1.058 0.3522
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 274 65.57% 43.72 -9.367 18.25% -1.84 0.1319
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1398 20.03% 45.32 -1.661 78.97% -0.356 -0.1625
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1026 28.26% 46.12 0.657 71.44% -0.105 -0.0982
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1288 24.55% 59.2 1.972 79.11% -0.276 -0.2651
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1236 28.79% 63.92 3.815 77.51% -0.436 -0.1228
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 789 27.5% 65.79 -1.54 74.27% -0.943 -0.6822
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 497 52.52% 67.2 -9.883 60.76% -1.407 -0.7978
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2982 76.28% 56.98 -7.833 36.45% -2.59 -1.2141
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1014 21.81% 43.97 -4.477 75.74% -0.952 -0.6429
The Kingdom of England 1 3 641 28.53% 52.41 -1.624 73.17% -0.955 -0.6431
The Kingdom of England 2 4 653 41.01% 44.72 -2.891 52.53% -1.43 -0.6912
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -4.62 43.95% -1.625 -0.3699
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -0.027 50.12% -1.645 -0.404
The Kingdom of England 5 9 215 71.96% 42.9 -9.1 16.28% -1.245 0.3531
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2721 63.32% 45.65 -7.036 14.44% -2.935 -0.9712
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 695 26.26% 48.87 6.736 77.55% 1.004 1.5015
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 402 41.54% 48.35 -5.589 66.92% -1.256 -0.3316
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1084 22.79% 54.47 7.883 61.72% -0.143 0.902
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 504 41.87% 52.51 3.337 43.25% -1.254 0.1457
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 7.538 43.26% -0.341 1.0968
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 347 48.13% 48.28 -0.903 30.84% -1.058 -0.2591
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3282 38.38% 55.89 2.964 34.77% -0.825 0.578
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 122 13.11% 41.68 8.594 68.85% 0.693 0.9657
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 83 37.35% 43.18 -2.187 55.42% -1.127 -0.7115
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 69 37.68% 37.45 0.048 43.48% -0.169 0.0992
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 82 45.12% 51.78 3.722 42.68% -0.665 -0.331
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 76 42.11% 55.87 9.396 50.0% -0.497 0.4102
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 134 59.7% 62.51 7.223 47.76% -0.852 -0.0115
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 452 63.64% 46.74 2.275 13.72% -1.798 -0.7406
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 762 23.54% 43.51 -3.748 77.17% -0.687 -0.5203
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 596 22.18% 49.8 -2.943 82.05% -0.604 -0.4542
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 604 32.11% 50.41 0.834 74.17% -0.16 0.0162
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 811 24.91% 44.69 -5.817 57.95% -1.978 -1.5678
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 392 46.17% 60.16 -0.483 73.21% -0.898 -0.2038
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 17.493 56.44% 0.394 1.2975
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 978 44.88% 63.36 -3.222 65.64% -1.264 -0.2384
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 437 18.54% 46.21 -1.728 81.46% -0.225 -0.0753
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 293 27.65% 54.41 -1.416 75.77% -0.473 0.4065
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 234 22.22% 62.65 4.357 82.05% -0.228 0.1165
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 128 47.66% 55.94 7.309 59.38% -0.31 0.7886
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 0.55 61.04% -1.003 0.0469
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 59 61.02% 60.58 -8.322 35.59% -1.259 0.4655
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2082 33.73% 70.15 -6.927 51.15% -1.766 0.1406

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18309 28.71 49.58 72.93% 0.3 0.5075 0.997
1 Thematic 7562 51.76 54.5 44.83% -0.131 0.5411 0.725
2 Archipelago 142 48.59 60.39 32.39% -0.745 -0.3356 0.146
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4017 25.82 51.47 81.01% 1.112 1.1369 0.976
2 Coastline 465 29.07 49.21 71.18% -0.29 -0.2319 0.333
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.098 -0.1617 -0.511
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.661 -0.7253 -1.613
2 Opposite Shores 1828 29.17 41.84 54.49% -0.565 -0.506 0.146
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1837 43.36 51.43 52.86% -0.023 0.1922 0.299
2 Top to Top 126 33.6 57.06 77.78% 0.968 0.9189 1.405
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.432 -0.7656 -0.265
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.507 -0.4089 0.531
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.898 0.5354 0.974
3 Round (Default) 2397 21.39 53.48 80.77% 1.213 0.9232 0.211
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.582
3 Thematic 296 35.14 60.33 59.12% 0.165 -0.1147 0.585
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.588
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.123
4 Leaf 13 23.08 52.31 84.62% -0.587
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.282
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1527 21.89 63.97 72.04% -0.657 -0.8595 0.637
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2011 22.06 61.64 80.21% -0.262 -0.3742 -0.144
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.285 0.9078 -0.106
5 Other 86 33.72 60.1 63.95% -0.26 -1.3708 0.094
5 Thematic 53 50.94 73.34 52.83% 0.747 0.6908 0.175
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% -0.61 -1.8531 0.536
6 Other 30 20.0 47.93 56.67% 0.003 -0.1678 -0.634
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -0.822 -0.7498 -1.225
6 Thematic 512 9.57 24.26 22.66% -1.198 -0.5027 -1.746
6 Two Centers (Default) 72 26.76 58.53 76.39% 0.069 -0.1838 -0.235

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 719 47.32 42.84% -0.182 -0.036 -1.19
Aid From Lesser Spirits 640 49.92 47.66% -0.111 -0.246 -1.001
All Things Weaken 451 46.58 42.13% -0.919 -0.6222 -1.127
Attenuated Essence 43 47.44 27.91% -0.028 0.0079 -1.356
Back Against the Wall 634 46.79 42.11% -0.092 -0.062 -1.437
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 51 40.69 29.41% -0.833 -0.6473 -1.338
Burn Brightest Before the End 37 42.0 29.73% -0.799 -0.7258 -1.523
Disintegrating Ecosystem 696 42.38 37.5% -0.391 -0.0416 -1.536
Downward Spiral 3141 44.72 31.96% -0.52 -0.3796 -1.233
Erosion of Will 762 45.54 40.68% -0.974 -0.7707 -1.236
Intensifying Exploitation 48 36.25 25.0% -0.701 -0.4514 -1.294
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 208 54.75 71.15% -0.253 -0.8574 -0.222
Memory Fades to Dust 3153 43.72 29.88% -1.206 -0.924 -1.366
Power Corrodes the Spirit 399 45.91 42.36% -0.387 -0.2249 -1.211
Promising Farmlands 688 41.95 33.72% 0.133 0.4305 -1.623
Shattered Fragments of Power 34 38.18 26.47% -0.167 -0.064 -1.628
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 35.62 24.32% -1.259 -0.9022 -1.799
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 130 54.65 68.46% 0.29 -0.4591 -0.099
The Border of Life and Death 10 40.9 60.0% 0.315 -0.1623 -0.452
Thriving Communities 373 41.84 27.88% -0.578 -0.2731 -1.766
Thriving Crops 19 46.26 57.89% -0.1 -0.19 -0.257
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.437
Unnatural Proliferation 429 45.45 37.76% -0.697 -0.5478 -1.343
Untended Land Crumbles 427 45.12 43.09% -0.04 0.2126 -1.176

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7959 28.23% 48.81 71.57% -0.891 0.2826 -1.092
B 7841 27.28% 51.68 75.08% -0.727 0.353 -1.132
C 8438 25.94% 54.19 76.83% -0.794 0.1318 -0.828
D 7240 27.46% 52.22 74.19% -0.993 0.0953 -1.092
E 3208 27.48% 53.76 74.44% -0.111 0.8117 -1.213
F 4730 24.99% 51.39 75.1% -0.932 0.1162 -1.498
G 4302 24.23% 53.58 78.22% -0.441 0.5637 -1.021
H 5359 23.09% 53.46 72.01% -0.86 0.1612 -0.899
East 9158 44.41% 54.35 48.51% -0.135 0.9011 -1.219
Northeast 5407 42.26% 53.15 45.03% -0.783 0.2042 -1.705
Northwest 3164 32.03% 52.24 53.07% -1.012 0.0431 -1.478
Southeast 1446 29.18% 42.43 43.22% -0.954 0.0631 -1.689
Southwest 1163 20.64% 36.38 39.81% -1.975 -0.5006 -1.735
West 5920 33.58% 53.84 56.13% -0.984 0.1397 -1.045

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 357 0.0% 43.83 71.43% -1.541 -0.8968 -0.247
Not Using Events or Tokens 10168 45.44% 49.42 55.28% 0.277 0.7806 -0.362
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1302 15.44% 65.6 82.26% 0.875 0.1572 0.087
Start of Game Growth 1680 15.12% 64.12 82.44% 1.027 0.6523 0.67
Unlimited Undo 2817 21.97% 53.56 77.56% -0.449 -0.5152 0.103
Using Tokens but Not Events 4866 14.47% 49.4 78.11% 0.15 0.2245 0.131

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7120 16.9 0.0%
II 25553 30.61 85.21%
III 6662 34.74 83.31%
IV 2388 38.28 19.81%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.031 Win Model: 0.705
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 26801 35.74% 50.47 62.84%
2 7799 30.34% 51.1 73.2%
3 2814 23.61% 54.79 77.97%
4 3601 21.37% 62.82 77.92%
5 94 31.91% 59.74 53.19%
6 614 11.09% 29.29 31.92%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2304
Lose: Invader deck ran out 313
Lose: Adversary condition 3979
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2262
Win: Scenario condition 27768
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4676
Lose: Spirit destroyed 392

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-17 05:14:24 (Pacific Time)