Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 391 27.37% 45.6 3.141 66.24% 0.031 0.3796
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 322 26.09% 53.23 3.79 76.09% 0.024 0.2828
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 230 38.7% 54.3 -4.229 69.13% -0.78 0.0925
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 210 44.76% 57.5 6.011 63.81% 0.029 0.9578
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 0.0 37.74%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -5.612 12.96% -0.729 0.7871
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 287 63.99% 43.22 -6.259 18.47% -1.085 0.9299
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1503 19.81% 43.99 -6.935 76.58% -1.049 -0.7921
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1081 27.47% 45.4 -3.852 70.49% -0.833 -0.7325
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1555 22.39% 55.01 0.909 73.76% -0.568 -0.477
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1297 28.83% 63.15 5.315 76.48% -0.488 -0.289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 812 27.34% 64.77 -3.79 73.15% -0.538 -0.2026
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 523 51.63% 66.26 -1.78 60.04% -1.535 -1.075
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3124 74.08% 55.53 -5.786 35.79% -1.792 -0.4742
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1064 22.05% 43.53 -1.885 74.81% -0.33 0.1179
The Kingdom of England 1 3 675 29.46% 51.78 4.062 72.15% 0.178 0.4804
The Kingdom of England 2 4 692 40.87% 44.51 2.872 52.46% -0.456 0.1604
The Kingdom of England 3 6 594 44.37% 46.72 -9.922 42.42% -1.696 -0.5832
The Kingdom of England 4 7 429 42.86% 54.9 -0.543 48.02% -1.817 -0.616
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -2.423 15.84% -0.991 0.5563
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2890 61.47% 44.56 -5.631 14.64% -2.596 -0.5872
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 717 26.15% 48.68 4.028 77.13% 0.143 0.6131
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 414 41.3% 48.15 0.848 66.67% 0.004 0.6888
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1159 22.69% 54.15 5.446 61.6% -0.482 0.468
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 546 42.12% 51.78 -1.007 43.22% -1.337 -0.0603
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 400 41.5% 56.01 -0.341 42.5% -1.38 -0.1052
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 376 48.4% 47.6 -4.199 29.52% -1.367 -0.4741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3734 35.95% 54.92 0.364 35.73% -0.902 0.5343
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 161 13.04% 38.94 -2.563 62.73% -0.456 -0.2628
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 98 38.78% 41.5 -7.511 52.04% -1.418 -0.9528
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 90 34.44% 36.32 -5.933 41.11% -1.257 -0.7646
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 122 41.8% 47.76 -1.631 37.7% -0.648 -0.2758
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 4.873 48.84% -0.044 0.564
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 193 59.07% 58.59 1.999 45.08% -0.86 -0.3202
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 573 62.24% 43.49 -4.658 14.49% -2.322 -1.2423
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 829 22.71% 42.02 -5.535 74.43% -0.585 -0.3036
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 621 22.9% 49.35 1.825 81.0% -0.144 -0.0713
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 651 31.79% 49.49 -2.299 72.81% -0.93 -0.7851
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 921 22.48% 40.54 -4.959 52.55% -1.441 -1.0702
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 411 45.5% 58.69 -1.801 71.29% -0.889 -0.2748
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 208 52.88% 53.15 -9.822 56.25% -0.993 0.1268
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1062 44.66% 60.61 -7.781 62.52% -1.942 -0.9527
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 466 19.31% 44.78 -3.864 78.76% -0.398 -0.3058
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 304 27.3% 53.76 -0.84 75.0% -0.113 0.805
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 255 22.35% 61.25 -4.266 80.39% -0.466 0.0787
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 132 47.73% 55.0 7.252 58.33% -0.025 0.9559
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 43.549 61.54% 0.364 1.2189
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 85 48.24% 46.99 -3.506 28.24% 0.113 1.5214
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2553 32.42% 66.06 3.654 49.39% -0.925 0.8308

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20138 28.35 49.31 71.68% 0.763 1.0688 1.047
1 Thematic 7830 51.14 53.74 44.39% 0.461 0.8927 0.74
2 Archipelago 164 44.51 53.15 28.66% -0.74 -0.4115 0.004
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4255 25.3 50.57 79.98% 0.252 0.4804 0.989
2 Coastline 573 25.8 42.7 62.3% -0.437 -0.4377 0.051
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.241 -0.0678 -0.409
2 Heart 93 39.78 49.84 32.26% 0.19 0.083 -1.443
2 Opposite Shores 1912 28.67 41.56 54.39% 0.227 0.2638 0.215
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1882 42.8 50.97 52.6% -0.285 -0.064 0.281
2 Top to Top 146 30.34 52.27 70.55% -0.707 -0.7316 1.088
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.091
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.577
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.007 0.4332 1.112
3 Round (Default) 2543 21.75 52.47 79.08% 0.346 0.1613 0.295
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.512 -0.3961 0.597
3 Thematic 316 34.18 58.41 57.59% -0.285 -0.7523 0.589
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.404
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.144
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.526
4 Other 71 23.94 58.04 83.1% 0.178 -0.0847 -0.145
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1701 20.35 59.97 68.02% -0.514 -0.4872 0.571
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2177 21.54 59.62 77.91% -0.337 -0.1202 -0.187
5 Archipelago 13 61.54 64.08 46.15% 0.316 0.0955 0.031
5 Other 103 29.13 55.14 61.17% -0.516 -1.0139 -0.003
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.174 -0.3857 0.24
6 Archipelago 12 8.33 59.92 75.0% -0.119 -0.9224 0.795
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% -0.377
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.252
6 Thematic 660 10.0 22.91 21.06% -0.428 -0.3755 -1.746
6 Two Centers (Default) 129 35.16 50.7 60.47% -0.998 -1.2086 -1.04
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.252
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.787

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 764 47.26 42.93% -0.071 0.0753 -1.104
Aid From Lesser Spirits 670 49.79 47.61% -0.257 -0.3458 -0.888
All Things Weaken 486 46.79 42.39% -0.442 -0.121 -0.996
Attenuated Essence 61 45.18 29.51% -0.14 -0.1151 -0.957
Back Against the Wall 666 47.22 42.49% 0.481 0.538 -1.325
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 73 38.79 26.03% -0.828 -0.6406 -1.394
Burn Brightest Before the End 53 38.74 22.64% -1.274 -1.098 -1.978
Disintegrating Ecosystem 743 41.87 37.01% -0.6 -0.2043 -1.469
Downward Spiral 3240 44.4 32.19% -0.315 -0.246 -1.127
Erosion of Will 818 45.35 40.34% -1.057 -0.7687 -1.178
Intensifying Exploitation 72 36.44 25.0% 0.104 0.3817 -1.296
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 223 55.59 70.85% 0.192 -0.2686 -0.124
Memory Fades to Dust 3265 43.48 30.2% 0.092 0.3074 -1.256
Power Corrodes the Spirit 430 46.67 43.26% 0.142 0.3052 -1.063
Promising Farmlands 718 42.04 33.98% -0.542 -0.2511 -1.505
Shattered Fragments of Power 45 37.0 22.22% -1.176 -0.9967 -1.716
Slow Dissolution of Will 53 40.51 32.08% 0.378 0.756 -1.303
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 138 53.95 68.12% 0.091 -0.6379 -0.048
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.6 -1.2023 -0.662
Thriving Communities 405 41.51 27.9% -0.414 -0.117 -1.663
Thriving Crops 31 38.03 41.94% -0.902 -0.892 -0.883
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.351
Unnatural Proliferation 458 44.95 36.9% -0.989 -0.844 -1.287
Untended Land Crumbles 460 44.86 42.61% -0.093 0.2558 -1.061

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8689 27.81% 47.85 69.97% -0.909 -0.0455 -1.231
B 8540 27.25% 50.69 73.27% -0.53 0.3005 -1.257
C 9137 25.52% 53.3 75.43% -0.3 0.3907 -0.913
D 7973 26.8% 50.6 71.8% -0.77 0.0666 -1.222
E 3634 27.15% 52.29 71.71% -0.574 0.1266 -1.309
F 5080 24.73% 50.68 73.78% -0.546 0.2767 -1.543
G 4662 24.32% 52.55 76.36% -0.84 0.0064 -1.148
H 5741 22.9% 52.39 70.67% -0.783 0.0035 -1.023
East 9748 42.89% 52.69 47.3% -0.555 0.2955 -1.281
Northeast 5846 40.2% 50.92 43.59% -0.542 0.3188 -1.742
Northwest 3517 30.09% 49.3 50.21% -0.865 0.0182 -1.552
Southeast 1666 27.37% 39.7 40.4% -0.603 0.2821 -1.715
Southwest 1381 20.28% 33.73 36.21% -1.932 -0.6547 -1.846
West 6393 32.28% 51.67 54.0% -0.221 0.84 -1.076

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 392 0.0% 42.64 68.88% -0.163 0.5668 -0.73
Not Using Events or Tokens 10682 44.56% 48.49 54.91% -0.811 -0.3901 -0.403
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1377 14.95% 65.44 81.55% 1.127 0.5171 0.117
Start of Game Growth 1770 14.64% 63.86 81.69% 0.26 -0.3411 0.689
Unlimited Undo 2960 21.75% 53.06 76.66% 0.115 0.1303 0.144
Using Tokens but Not Events 5220 14.12% 47.69 75.31% -0.298 -0.293 0.059

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8309 15.6 0.0%
II 27227 30.47 84.95%
III 7058 34.79 83.2%
IV 2519 38.43 20.13%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.128 Win Model: 0.661
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 29055 34.88% 49.83 62.03%
2 8172 29.83% 50.5 72.79%
3 2999 23.6% 53.42 76.06%
4 3946 20.73% 60.1 74.78%
5 124 30.65% 52.82 50.0%
6 817 13.13% 28.29 29.99%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3517
Lose: Invader deck ran out 327
Lose: Adversary condition 4107
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2372
Win: Scenario condition 29480
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4878
Lose: Spirit destroyed 403

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-08 06:47:53 (Pacific Time)