Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 376 27.13% 45.8 1.928 67.02% -0.019 0.3814
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -12.398 76.64% -0.994 -0.7106
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 211 38.86% 57.13 -1.203 72.99% -0.399 0.3201
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 203 44.83% 57.74 -5.567 64.04% -0.979 0.0907
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -13.082 37.74% -0.683 0.6783
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 278 64.98% 43.4 -8.608 18.35% -1.52 0.4678
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1414 19.89% 45.2 -2.344 78.85% -0.242 -0.0429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1034 28.24% 46.03 -2.746 71.37% -0.426 -0.3341
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1360 23.99% 58.05 1.872 77.57% -0.416 -0.3206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1246 28.72% 63.83 4.523 77.37% -0.376 -0.1127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 796 27.51% 65.55 1.268 73.99% -0.526 -0.2438
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 500 52.2% 67.24 8.581 60.8% -0.256 0.2944
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3015 75.81% 56.75 -6.416 36.38% -2.085 -0.6719
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1030 22.16% 43.88 -2.478 75.53% -0.49 -0.146
The Kingdom of England 1 3 650 28.75% 52.29 -1.342 73.08% -0.457 -0.1609
The Kingdom of England 2 4 665 40.87% 44.44 -6.407 52.18% -1.736 -1.0245
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -1.344 43.95% -1.246 -0.0829
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -17.37 50.12% -1.7 -0.5861
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -18.554 16.13% -0.749 0.7296
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2754 62.91% 45.41 -5.868 14.49% -2.418 -0.4911
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 704 26.5% 48.82 4.808 77.41% 0.669 1.1418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 403 41.44% 48.32 -6.165 66.75% -1.349 -0.6116
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1105 22.71% 54.24 5.056 61.54% -0.56 0.5407
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 511 41.68% 52.57 5.829 43.44% -0.921 0.5353
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 14.662 43.26% 0.037 1.417
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 356 48.6% 48.71 1.596 30.9% -1.041 -0.1209
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3408 37.87% 56.02 3.382 35.42% -0.841 0.5269
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 125 12.8% 42.21 9.684 69.6% 1.024 1.31
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 85 38.82% 42.89 -0.843 54.12% -0.873 -0.3467
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 74 39.19% 38.68 1.675 44.59% 0.025 0.2908
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 100 45.0% 50.5 0.549 39.0% -1.413 -1.0099
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 77 41.56% 56.1 7.881 50.65% -0.292 0.5639
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 150 57.33% 62.52 4.814 48.0% -1.08 -0.3575
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 484 62.53% 45.87 -0.724 14.26% -1.921 -0.9377
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 765 23.71% 43.4 -0.723 76.99% -0.07 0.1402
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 602 22.46% 49.76 -1.696 81.89% -0.47 -0.397
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 611 31.91% 50.34 0.157 73.98% -0.398 -0.2098
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 831 24.43% 43.9 -9.167 56.92% -2.285 -1.912
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 399 45.86% 59.75 -2.523 72.68% -1.175 -0.4645
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 16.805 56.44% 0.397 1.1505
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1003 44.76% 62.75 -0.104 65.1% -0.906 0.1148
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 447 19.24% 45.7 -5.801 80.54% -0.609 -0.4846
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 1.498 75.85% -0.266 0.701
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 245 21.63% 62.47 8.115 82.04% 0.051 0.2615
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 129 47.29% 55.5 5.272 58.91% -0.431 0.6807
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 1.19 61.04% -1.027 -0.0024
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 63 61.9% 57.87 -9.387 33.33% -1.972 -0.3849
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2128 33.54% 69.91 -3.319 51.03% -0.868 0.9004

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18766 28.6 49.52 72.58% 0.466 0.5527 0.97
1 Thematic 7601 51.7 54.42 44.81% -0.004 0.5013 0.696
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.376 -0.0421 0.109
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4066 25.86 51.33 80.91% 0.984 0.9357 0.99
2 Coastline 494 28.16 47.86 69.23% -0.273 -0.2005 0.311
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.394 0.0348 -0.493
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.838 -0.8692 -1.597
2 Opposite Shores 1844 29.18 41.9 54.56% -0.731 -0.8157 0.15
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1847 43.24 51.38 52.9% -0.014 0.1566 0.285
2 Top to Top 127 33.33 56.98 77.95% 0.997 0.8595 1.418
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.211 -1.0424 -0.229
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.563 -0.3513 0.511
3 Other 61 35.0 51.52 75.41% 0.945 0.5278 0.997
3 Round (Default) 2429 21.35 53.3 80.49% 0.343 0.0443 0.246
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.598
3 Thematic 299 34.78 60.19 59.2% 0.026 -0.3368 0.588
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.549
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.112
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.44 0.6003 -0.564
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.244
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1578 21.43 62.92 71.04% -0.079 -0.0558 0.634
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2049 21.95 61.2 79.84% -0.415 -0.4067 -0.126
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.101 -0.8661 -0.069
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.554 -0.3756 0.152
5 Thematic 54 50.0 73.26 53.7% 0.904 1.1318 0.224
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.661
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.434 0.7648 -0.453
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.314 -1.2964 -1.28
6 Thematic 536 9.89 24.0 22.2% -1.493 -1.0473 -1.768
6 Two Centers (Default) 77 28.95 57.55 74.03% -0.741 -0.7346 -0.405
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.363 -0.2123 -0.297

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 727 47.4 42.92% -0.599 -0.4754 -1.169
Aid From Lesser Spirits 646 49.91 47.52% -0.227 -0.3362 -0.969
All Things Weaken 457 46.58 42.23% -0.42 -0.1243 -1.106
Attenuated Essence 49 46.31 28.57% -0.342 -0.2825 -1.357
Back Against the Wall 637 46.72 41.92% -0.739 -0.7321 -1.429
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 59 41.46 30.51% -0.697 -0.5739 -1.278
Burn Brightest Before the End 42 41.43 28.57% -0.763 -0.6737 -1.628
Disintegrating Ecosystem 704 42.25 37.22% -0.71 -0.3571 -1.523
Downward Spiral 3166 44.63 32.09% -0.913 -0.7306 -1.224
Erosion of Will 777 45.42 40.41% -0.73 -0.4862 -1.215
Intensifying Exploitation 57 35.91 24.56% -0.459 -0.2479 -1.383
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 211 54.84 71.09% -0.382 -1.0028 -0.219
Memory Fades to Dust 3174 43.61 29.87% -0.996 -0.7088 -1.358
Power Corrodes the Spirit 404 46.14 42.57% -0.093 0.0948 -1.154
Promising Farmlands 697 42.0 34.0% 0.126 0.4526 -1.595
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 39.56 27.78% -0.435 -0.3206 -1.507
Slow Dissolution of Will 38 36.66 26.32% -0.781 -0.3997 -1.589
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.717 -0.0235 -0.084
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.239 -0.2275 -0.613
Thriving Communities 382 41.69 27.49% -1.15 -0.8304 -1.771
Thriving Crops 23 44.09 52.17% -0.587 -0.6392 -0.633
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.411
Unnatural Proliferation 439 45.19 37.36% -1.047 -0.8777 -1.353
Untended Land Crumbles 436 45.07 43.12% 0.052 0.2766 -1.137

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8135 28.15% 48.62 71.28% -0.756 0.3211 -1.125
B 8003 27.31% 51.47 74.71% -0.521 0.449 -1.163
C 8595 25.81% 54.02 76.56% -0.547 0.2802 -0.863
D 7368 27.32% 51.96 73.85% -0.807 0.1931 -1.132
E 3298 27.41% 53.61 74.14% 0.106 0.944 -1.22
F 4805 24.92% 51.23 74.76% -0.741 0.1914 -1.526
G 4388 24.22% 53.38 77.87% -0.283 0.6209 -1.057
H 5442 23.18% 53.36 71.9% -0.652 0.2695 -0.91
East 9268 44.09% 54.11 48.4% -0.244 0.7498 -1.234
Northeast 5494 41.81% 52.79 44.87% -0.616 0.2333 -1.716
Northwest 3246 31.53% 51.63 52.59% -0.892 0.0601 -1.504
Southeast 1474 28.97% 42.06 42.81% -0.458 0.4739 -1.706
Southwest 1195 20.59% 35.95 39.16% -2.112 -0.6931 -1.742
West 6022 33.26% 53.42 55.78% -0.476 0.6006 -1.054

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 364 0.0% 43.24 70.6% -1.965 -1.2772 -0.4
Not Using Events or Tokens 10272 45.31% 49.27 55.31% 0.179 0.6652 -0.354
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1317 15.36% 65.66 82.16% 0.984 0.3894 0.125
Start of Game Growth 1702 14.94% 64.16 82.37% 0.934 0.4834 0.68
Unlimited Undo 2841 21.87% 53.47 77.51% 0.209 0.0954 0.111
Using Tokens but Not Events 4924 14.42% 49.11 77.7% 0.017 0.0668 0.134

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7347 16.55 0.0%
II 25944 30.57 85.16%
III 6768 34.75 83.3%
IV 2428 38.33 20.1%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.138 Win Model: 0.734
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27320 35.54% 50.38 62.7%
2 7884 30.3% 51.0 73.17%
3 2852 23.54% 54.57 77.7%
4 3690 21.13% 62.16 77.29%
5 96 31.25% 59.7 54.17%
6 645 11.66% 29.02 31.32%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2520
Lose: Invader deck ran out 317
Lose: Adversary condition 4017
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2291
Win: Scenario condition 28192
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4726
Lose: Spirit destroyed 395

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-28 04:12:53 (Pacific Time)