Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 371 27.22% 45.68 1.293 66.85% -0.156 0.1965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 303 25.41% 53.67 -0.039 76.9% -0.285 0.0117
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 201 37.81% 58.49 5.427 75.12% -0.087 0.6586
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 197 46.19% 58.78 -7.875 64.97% -1.298 -0.2036
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 51 66.67% 52.27 -20.298 39.22% -1.066 0.3612
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 274 65.57% 43.72 -9.375 18.25% -1.886 0.0955
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1388 19.94% 45.4 -2.596 79.18% -0.547 -0.3685
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1016 28.25% 46.11 0.311 71.46% -0.378 -0.425
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1264 24.94% 59.67 3.651 79.83% -0.246 -0.2181
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1230 28.75% 64.03 3.35 77.72% -0.539 -0.2755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 783 27.46% 65.82 -0.673 74.2% -1.047 -0.7683
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 497 52.52% 67.2 -7.349 60.76% -1.379 -0.7686
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2969 76.38% 57.15 -5.744 36.54% -2.3 -0.9508
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1008 21.84% 43.95 -6.804 75.69% -1.337 -1.0918
The Kingdom of England 1 3 639 28.62% 52.47 -1.513 73.24% -0.919 -0.6521
The Kingdom of England 2 4 648 41.18% 44.77 -1.556 52.47% -1.153 -0.4368
The Kingdom of England 3 6 555 46.07% 48.32 -7.629 43.96% -1.758 -0.5015
The Kingdom of England 4 7 399 43.07% 56.28 2.893 50.38% -1.397 -0.117
The Kingdom of England 5 9 214 72.3% 43.1 -7.627 16.36% -1.1 0.4619
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2704 63.46% 45.82 -6.238 14.46% -2.719 -0.7358
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 695 26.26% 48.87 4.539 77.55% 0.511 1.0021
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 401 41.65% 48.41 -6.611 67.08% -1.133 -0.2489
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1064 23.12% 54.74 8.145 62.03% -0.308 0.7255
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 497 42.05% 52.61 9.533 43.46% -0.209 1.1815
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 385 41.82% 56.12 -1.536 43.12% -0.486 1.0171
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 315 47.94% 49.88 -3.214 33.02% -1.752 -0.9506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3235 38.63% 55.7 1.13 34.34% -1.19 0.27
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 116 13.79% 40.97 7.645 68.1% 0.55 0.7876
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 80 36.25% 43.16 -0.066 55.0% -0.789 -0.3993
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 66 37.88% 37.86 0.483 43.94% -0.147 0.1464
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 76 46.05% 53.66 7.9 43.42% -0.307 0.0031
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 75 42.67% 56.21 8.668 50.67% -0.629 0.2794
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 129 59.69% 62.81 8.364 48.06% -0.605 0.2357
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 430 63.4% 45.98 3.308 13.26% -1.776 -0.685
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 762 23.54% 43.51 -4.736 77.17% -0.851 -0.7066
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 590 22.07% 49.96 -3.033 82.37% -0.745 -0.5962
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 600 32.33% 50.55 0.546 74.33% -0.331 -0.1731
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 794 25.31% 45.55 -5.876 59.07% -2.07 -1.6964
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 390 46.41% 60.28 0.508 73.33% -0.873 -0.2318
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 200 54.5% 53.3 4.469 56.0% -0.511 0.4123
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 972 44.74% 63.57 -3.968 65.95% -1.302 -0.2794
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 435 18.62% 46.32 -1.528 81.61% -0.345 -0.2981
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 293 27.65% 54.41 0.477 75.77% -0.268 0.6383
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 233 22.32% 62.59 2.646 81.97% -0.317 0.1209
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 125 48.0% 55.35 2.103 58.4% -0.751 0.3965
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 67 37.31% 64.97 0.0 62.69%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 57 59.65% 61.58 -6.596 36.84% -0.553 1.1832
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2061 33.83% 70.84 -5.711 51.67% -1.583 0.4203

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18113 28.76 49.63 73.05% 0.541 0.7861 1.009
1 Thematic 7547 51.78 54.52 44.83% 0.08 0.7816 0.742
2 Archipelago 142 48.59 60.39 32.39% -0.582 -0.1945 0.151
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3984 25.91 51.52 81.07% 0.766 0.8026 0.99
2 Coastline 459 29.02 49.03 71.02% -0.589 -0.5521 0.305
2 Fragment 76 27.63 49.05 73.68% 0.26 0.0708 -0.36
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.866 -0.9925 -1.619
2 Opposite Shores 1802 29.25 42.31 55.11% -0.558 -0.4363 0.157
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1829 43.5 51.55 52.98% 0.241 0.6024 0.309
2 Top to Top 125 33.87 57.51 78.4% 1.124 1.093 1.435
3 Archipelago 52 51.92 54.9 30.77% -0.896 -1.4453 -0.358
3 Coastline 6 0.0 61.83 100.0% 0.216
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.743 0.4623 0.96
3 Round (Default) 2378 21.5 53.52 80.87% 0.984 0.668 0.168
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.611
3 Thematic 294 35.37 60.53 59.18% -0.068 -0.1436 0.586
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.111 -0.6296 -0.586
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.125
4 Leaf 13 23.08 52.31 84.62% -0.604
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% 0.645 -0.8929 -0.315
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1504 22.22 64.48 72.61% -0.997 -1.1755 0.636
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2007 22.05 61.68 80.22% -0.822 -1.0516 -0.183
5 Archipelago 9 55.56 66.33 55.56% -0.145 0.694 -0.089
5 Other 86 33.72 60.1 63.95% -0.587 -1.798 0.059
5 Thematic 53 50.94 73.34 52.83% 0.863 0.6875 0.178
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 1.018 -0.3242 0.545
6 Other 30 20.0 47.93 56.67% -0.146 -0.6147 -0.661
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.171 -1.3877 -1.236
6 Thematic 495 9.7 25.09 23.43% -0.925 -0.1088 -1.75
6 Two Centers (Default) 63 17.74 61.24 82.54% 0.381 -0.2522 0.055

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 717 47.37 42.82% -0.44 -0.2988 -1.194
Aid From Lesser Spirits 633 50.06 48.03% 0.255 0.1468 -0.994
All Things Weaken 448 46.65 42.19% -1.029 -0.7439 -1.133
Attenuated Essence 39 48.36 30.77% 0.204 0.2598 -1.068
Back Against the Wall 633 46.79 42.02% -0.71 -0.6991 -1.447
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 44 37.73 27.27% -1.418 -1.2799 -1.49
Burn Brightest Before the End 34 41.09 32.35% -0.868 -0.7481 -1.409
Disintegrating Ecosystem 690 42.37 37.39% -0.486 -0.1494 -1.541
Downward Spiral 3126 44.83 32.02% -0.418 -0.2848 -1.24
Erosion of Will 758 45.55 40.63% -0.991 -0.7597 -1.241
Intensifying Exploitation 45 34.29 22.22% -1.51 -1.297 -1.512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 205 55.01 71.71% -0.221 -0.8307 -0.185
Memory Fades to Dust 3137 43.78 29.87% -0.953 -0.7062 -1.372
Power Corrodes the Spirit 393 46.01 42.75% -0.358 -0.1982 -1.209
Promising Farmlands 683 41.93 33.82% 0.313 0.6389 -1.635
Shattered Fragments of Power 34 38.18 26.47% -0.566 -0.4404 -1.64
Slow Dissolution of Will 36 35.03 25.0% -0.963 -0.5644 -1.786
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 130 54.65 68.46% -0.029 -0.7877 -0.114
The Border of Life and Death 9 40.22 55.56% 0.234 -0.2304 -0.453
Thriving Communities 370 41.89 28.11% -0.487 -0.2197 -1.764
Thriving Crops 18 44.44 55.56% 0.462 0.3214 -0.398
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.446
Unnatural Proliferation 429 45.45 37.76% -1.035 -0.8716 -1.352
Untended Land Crumbles 427 45.12 43.09% 0.168 0.4037 -1.179

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7866 28.2% 48.98 71.87% -0.64 0.5031 -1.065
B 7769 27.18% 51.77 75.22% -0.55 0.4992 -1.121
C 8362 25.86% 54.31 77.1% -0.467 0.4377 -0.807
D 7154 27.37% 52.34 74.55% -0.623 0.4317 -1.063
E 3134 27.46% 53.54 74.66% 0.177 1.0842 -1.221
F 4698 24.82% 51.44 75.29% -0.688 0.3532 -1.48
G 4287 24.15% 53.6 78.28% -0.159 0.8241 -1.005
H 5303 23.05% 53.63 72.26% -0.925 0.0766 -0.881
East 9103 44.64% 54.55 48.64% -0.097 0.8658 -1.21
Northeast 5365 42.58% 53.41 45.2% -0.688 0.246 -1.7
Northwest 3125 32.4% 52.68 53.47% -0.265 0.7706 -1.465
Southeast 1424 29.56% 42.97 43.75% -0.976 -0.0015 -1.677
Southwest 1141 20.95% 37.0 40.49% -1.987 -0.5839 -1.712
West 5863 33.77% 54.15 56.46% -0.852 0.2204 -1.029

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 351 0.0% 44.34 72.36% -0.853 -0.2471 -0.174
Not Using Events or Tokens 10102 45.5% 49.55 55.35% 0.208 0.7293 -0.355
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1296 15.43% 65.57 82.18% 0.633 -0.0665 0.068
Start of Game Growth 1674 15.12% 64.1 82.38% 0.815 0.4521 0.663
Unlimited Undo 2803 22.01% 53.58 77.6% -0.581 -0.5893 0.095
Using Tokens but Not Events 4800 14.54% 49.55 78.6% 0.125 0.1907 0.124

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6986 17.12 0.0%
II 25355 30.63 85.24%
III 6631 34.73 83.29%
IV 2376 38.25 19.74%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.06 Win Model: 0.594
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 26566 35.83% 50.56 62.92%
2 7737 30.34% 51.13 73.34%
3 2791 23.75% 54.86 78.07%
4 3573 21.43% 63.05 78.25%
5 94 31.91% 59.74 53.19%
6 587 10.07% 29.87 32.71%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2178
Lose: Invader deck ran out 313
Lose: Adversary condition 3957
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2254
Win: Scenario condition 27576
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4650
Lose: Spirit destroyed 391

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-11 03:49:46 (Pacific Time)