Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 375 26.93% 45.88 3.629 67.2% 0.06 0.4398
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -5.177 76.64% -0.758 -0.4808
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 208 38.46% 57.43 0.664 73.56% -0.152 0.6072
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 202 45.05% 58.02 -7.086 64.36% -1.279 -0.1594
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -14.381 37.74% -1.079 0.278
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 277 64.86% 43.24 -10.824 18.05% -1.942 0.0065
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1405 19.93% 45.3 -0.804 79.0% -0.021 0.1852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1029 28.18% 46.09 -0.426 71.43% -0.241 -0.2314
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1317 24.39% 58.74 1.72 78.44% -0.353 -0.3256
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1243 28.79% 63.86 5.659 77.39% -0.36 -0.072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 791 27.43% 65.63 -1.527 74.08% -0.837 -0.5397
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 497 52.52% 67.2 -10.159 60.76% -1.278 -0.6755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2991 76.12% 56.86 -7.719 36.38% -2.434 -1.0407
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1019 22.0% 43.96 -3.295 75.76% -0.694 -0.3698
The Kingdom of England 1 3 644 28.71% 52.36 -1.401 73.14% -0.628 -0.3325
The Kingdom of England 2 4 655 40.89% 44.59 -6.444 52.37% -1.569 -0.8457
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -5.855 43.95% -1.731 -0.4947
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 0.885 50.12% -1.139 0.0416
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -9.698 16.13% -1.232 0.3424
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2742 63.01% 45.41 -7.31 14.37% -2.92 -0.9782
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 700 26.22% 48.8 4.119 77.43% 0.572 1.0533
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 402 41.54% 48.35 -5.616 66.92% -1.292 -0.4553
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1094 22.76% 54.36 7.081 61.61% -0.209 0.8222
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 507 41.81% 52.47 3.059 43.2% -1.531 -0.1252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 17.556 43.26% 0.102 1.5226
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 348 48.28% 48.14 -1.492 30.75% -1.25 -0.4024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3322 38.16% 55.97 2.736 35.04% -0.912 0.4745
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 123 13.01% 41.96 8.602 69.11% 0.769 1.055
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 84 38.1% 43.07 -1.683 54.76% -1.12 -0.6405
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 73 38.36% 38.85 2.815 45.21% 0.017 0.2946
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 85 44.71% 51.15 1.666 41.18% -1.091 -0.6798
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 76 42.11% 55.87 8.572 50.0% -0.346 0.5402
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 140 59.29% 62.01 6.241 47.86% -0.747 0.0627
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 459 63.1% 46.81 2.115 14.16% -1.72 -0.6999
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 762 23.54% 43.51 -2.147 77.17% -0.427 -0.2774
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 597 22.15% 49.79 -4.095 82.08% -0.63 -0.5026
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 607 31.95% 50.37 0.154 74.14% -0.393 -0.1948
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 820 24.76% 44.28 -6.112 57.44% -1.761 -1.3437
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 393 46.06% 60.01 0.463 73.03% -0.663 0.041
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 18.48 56.44% 0.535 1.4701
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 984 44.81% 63.14 -1.959 65.45% -1.238 -0.247
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 438 18.49% 46.1 -3.579 81.28% -0.352 -0.2532
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 -1.714 75.85% -0.439 0.509
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 240 22.08% 62.63 4.508 82.08% -0.258 0.0226
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 128 47.66% 55.94 7.794 59.38% -0.245 0.8656
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 0.218 61.04% -0.929 0.0796
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 61 62.3% 59.77 -8.111 34.43% -1.571 0.0954
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2116 33.38% 69.93 -4.039 51.09% -0.972 0.8371

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18470 28.62 49.6 72.89% 0.517 0.708 1.002
1 Thematic 7580 51.73 54.46 44.79% -0.2 0.4451 0.731
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.721 -0.2895 0.107
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4030 25.84 51.45 81.02% 1.371 1.3672 0.977
2 Coastline 480 28.36 48.11 69.17% -0.334 -0.2784 0.317
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.476 0.21 -0.494
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.583 -0.6214 -1.614
2 Opposite Shores 1832 29.16 41.83 54.48% -0.667 -0.6531 0.154
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1841 43.32 51.4 52.85% 0.116 0.3127 0.309
2 Top to Top 126 33.6 57.06 77.78% 0.885 0.787 1.413
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.426 -0.8725 -0.236
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.544 -0.4805 0.52
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.94 0.5475 0.993
3 Round (Default) 2405 21.31 53.44 80.75% 1.037 0.7017 0.223
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.612
3 Thematic 296 35.14 60.33 59.12% 0.347 0.0624 0.592
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.562
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.111
4 Leaf 13 23.08 52.31 84.62% -0.582
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.278
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1547 21.67 63.49 71.56% -0.344 -0.4235 0.644
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2018 22.03 61.47 80.03% -0.407 -0.5641 -0.154
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.287 0.3873 -0.098
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% -0.071 -1.1459 0.103
5 Thematic 53 50.94 73.34 52.83% 1.175 1.1686 0.179
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% -0.633 -1.9327 0.563
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.446 0.2425 -0.595
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.027 -0.928 -1.246
6 Thematic 522 9.39 23.79 22.22% -1.777 -1.1279 -1.77
6 Two Centers (Default) 75 29.73 57.96 74.67% -0.146 -0.4803 -0.356

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 721 47.37 42.86% -0.347 -0.2178 -1.177
Aid From Lesser Spirits 643 50.02 47.74% 0.011 -0.1075 -0.979
All Things Weaken 452 46.61 42.26% -0.529 -0.2217 -1.119
Attenuated Essence 44 47.11 29.55% -0.278 -0.2457 -1.342
Back Against the Wall 635 46.77 42.05% -0.357 -0.327 -1.431
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 54 40.26 27.78% -1.015 -0.8288 -1.454
Burn Brightest Before the End 39 41.54 28.21% -0.865 -0.7949 -1.547
Disintegrating Ecosystem 698 42.32 37.39% -0.545 -0.1692 -1.531
Downward Spiral 3144 44.7 31.97% -0.505 -0.3396 -1.227
Erosion of Will 765 45.49 40.65% -0.933 -0.719 -1.227
Intensifying Exploitation 49 35.71 24.49% -0.426 -0.1845 -1.256
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 54.69 70.95% -0.848 -1.4291 -0.241
Memory Fades to Dust 3157 43.67 29.84% -1.079 -0.7861 -1.361
Power Corrodes the Spirit 401 46.0 42.39% -0.52 -0.3585 -1.198
Promising Farmlands 690 41.94 33.77% -0.022 0.2744 -1.619
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 40.14 28.57% 0.088 0.1757 -1.517
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 35.62 24.32% -1.15 -0.7568 -1.78
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.382 -0.3293 -0.095
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.184 -0.2955 -0.6
Thriving Communities 376 41.83 27.93% -0.679 -0.3795 -1.757
Thriving Crops 21 44.81 57.14% -0.29 -0.3913 -0.351
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.427
Unnatural Proliferation 433 45.4 37.64% -1.15 -0.9807 -1.362
Untended Land Crumbles 431 45.22 43.39% 0.065 0.3232 -1.143

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8016 28.14% 48.74 71.48% -0.723 0.42 -1.109
B 7887 27.29% 51.62 74.96% -0.579 0.4764 -1.142
C 8495 25.86% 54.2 76.76% -0.651 0.2371 -0.84
D 7282 27.39% 52.11 74.05% -0.9 0.1541 -1.107
E 3239 27.46% 53.69 74.31% -0.111 0.7929 -1.217
F 4759 25.05% 51.31 74.93% -0.756 0.2486 -1.515
G 4328 24.22% 53.46 78.07% -0.47 0.4983 -1.034
H 5381 23.1% 53.43 72.01% -0.696 0.2964 -0.9
East 9202 44.27% 54.21 48.4% -0.065 0.9236 -1.233
Northeast 5442 42.05% 52.96 44.91% -0.669 0.2806 -1.715
Northwest 3196 31.78% 51.89 52.75% -0.942 0.0994 -1.497
Southeast 1457 28.96% 42.15 42.96% -0.873 0.045 -1.699
Southwest 1174 20.44% 36.1 39.52% -1.666 -0.2094 -1.74
West 5960 33.42% 53.61 55.92% -0.952 0.1548 -1.06

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 358 0.0% 43.83 71.51% -1.527 -0.8629 -0.249
Not Using Events or Tokens 10199 45.36% 49.36 55.27% 0.195 0.6895 -0.359
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1302 15.44% 65.6 82.26% 0.843 0.2202 0.082
Start of Game Growth 1684 15.08% 64.1 82.42% 0.91 0.4977 0.683
Unlimited Undo 2821 21.93% 53.57 77.6% -0.108 -0.2034 0.109
Using Tokens but Not Events 4885 14.43% 49.28 77.95% 0.203 0.2785 0.137

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7208 16.77 0.0%
II 25698 30.59 85.21%
III 6692 34.74 83.26%
IV 2393 38.3 19.93%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.051 Win Model: 0.653
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 26998 35.62% 50.45 62.82%
2 7820 30.35% 51.09 73.2%
3 2824 23.52% 54.71 77.9%
4 3626 21.28% 62.56 77.63%
5 95 31.58% 59.6 53.68%
6 628 11.32% 28.97 31.53%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2392
Lose: Invader deck ran out 315
Lose: Adversary condition 3989
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2264
Win: Scenario condition 27918
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4691
Lose: Spirit destroyed 393

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)