Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 292 23.29% 48.16 -5.013 73.63% -0.95 -0.3822
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 251 25.9% 55.4 3.98 79.28% 0.221 0.9093
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 159 38.36% 62.13 7.445 80.5% 0.08 1.1267
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 151 46.36% 59.64 5.727 68.21% -0.562 0.8262
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 42 71.43% 54.67 11.644 42.86% 0.094 1.7979
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 48 91.67% 38.92 2.061 8.33% -0.524 1.075
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 210 73.81% 47.93 -3.713 20.0% -1.249 0.9423
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1155 20.36% 46.45 -6.529 80.78% -0.451 -0.1627
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 828 30.1% 47.75 -2.828 74.03% -0.473 -0.69
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1043 25.31% 61.13 1.717 82.17% -0.331 -0.1183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 956 28.51% 68.51 8.18 83.26% 0.057 0.5533
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 574 30.14% 73.9 10.113 82.75% 0.117 0.6543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 440 55.91% 68.43 11.695 60.91% -0.096 1.0835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2583 80.26% 60.7 5.102 38.71% -1.476 0.0965
The Kingdom of England 0 1 846 21.48% 45.92 -4.057 79.67% -0.309 0.1058
The Kingdom of England 1 3 544 27.49% 53.58 2.292 75.55% -0.095 0.6183
The Kingdom of England 2 4 468 40.77% 48.89 -4.296 59.4% -1.44 -0.4109
The Kingdom of England 3 6 453 48.31% 50.83 -12.576 48.34% -0.704 0.9542
The Kingdom of England 4 7 347 45.51% 57.14 0.121 51.59% -0.639 0.9791
The Kingdom of England 5 9 195 76.8% 44.69 1.325 16.92% -1.498 0.5571
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2211 69.21% 48.54 0.815 14.16% -2.215 0.19
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 615 26.43% 49.25 -3.932 78.37% -0.483 0.3196
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 332 42.47% 49.43 -0.094 68.67% -0.488 0.3849
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 685 25.69% 57.49 -0.051 64.96% -1.33 0.9408
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 442 43.21% 52.48 -0.826 42.76% -1.358 0.9738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 361 41.55% 56.31 1.553 42.94% -1.258 1.1487
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 183 56.83% 63.73 6.682 46.45% -0.632 1.2313
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2218 42.5% 63.33 1.941 38.23% -2.349 -0.034
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 29 6.9% 52.59 -0.757 96.55% 0.93 0.778
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 14 21.43% 57.79 1.875 92.86% 0.366 1.2525
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 33.33% 30.83 -12.636 16.67% -1.608 -0.6324
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 14 64.29% 63.57 -1.806 42.86% -1.147 -0.428
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9 22.22% 66.67 7.593 66.67% -0.372 0.9204
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 38 63.16% 64.74 3.087 50.0% -1.174 0.2206
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 89 73.86% 56.98 -1.126 13.48% -2.479 -0.8399
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 631 20.67% 45.79 -0.855 81.62% 0.662 0.7941
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 495 22.06% 51.59 -0.885 85.25% -0.05 -0.0898
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 486 29.81% 52.49 -0.304 78.19% -0.438 0.0409
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 499 34.67% 63.07 6.748 82.57% 0.055 0.3278
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 334 48.5% 62.77 7.929 76.65% -0.313 0.5244
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 152 56.58% 56.51 15.272 57.89% 0.309 1.1824
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 815 48.1% 68.06 5.588 70.92% -0.685 0.5347
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 326 17.18% 50.67 0.672 90.49% 0.309 0.1745
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 237 26.16% 57.81 0.122 81.43% 0.082 0.8596
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 183 19.13% 66.63 7.793 88.52% 0.026 0.5034
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 96 48.96% 59.34 2.906 63.54% -0.299 0.8791
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 57 36.84% 67.42 20.224 64.91% 0.815 2.1504
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 48 62.5% 68.38 25.982 43.75% 0.078 1.9283
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1328 43.56% 84.94 15.802 61.07% -0.069 1.8409

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 13502 30.22 50.95 74.93% -0.091 0.3565 0.87
1 Thematic 6603 53.18 56.59 45.36% -0.454 0.1484 0.617
2 Archipelago 65 35.38 89.18 64.62% -0.05 0.616 1.121
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3265 27.9 52.65 81.29% 0.882 1.2731 0.686
2 Coastline 341 32.83 51.35 71.85% 1.26 1.3481 -0.058
2 Fragment 62 30.65 49.1 72.58% 0.167 0.2331 -0.889
2 Heart 64 25.0 52.88 40.63% -0.211 0.0608 -1.751
2 Opposite Shores 1229 34.64 51.02 69.0% 0.251 0.7435 0.015
2 Thematic 1619 45.82 53.68 55.47% -0.725 -0.2573 0.071
2 Top to Top 98 34.02 58.44 80.61% 0.89 1.1725 1.422
3 Archipelago 16 25.0 83.06 81.25% 0.166 -0.2172 0.421
3 Coastline 5 0.0 64.0 100.0% 0.009
3 Other 53 34.62 53.3 77.36% 0.135 -0.9545 0.351
3 Round (Default) 2007 21.54 54.91 82.96% -0.628 -0.3591 -0.318
3 Sunrise 3 0.0 63.33 100.0% -0.255
3 Thematic 247 38.46 65.15 62.75% -0.443 -0.6668 0.221
4 Archipelago 8 12.5 63.75 87.5% 0.019 -0.8325 -0.268
4 Coastline 2 0.0 37.5 50.0%
4 Leaf 11 27.27 52.91 81.82% -0.821
4 Other 64 17.19 58.61 85.94% 0.024 -0.4221 -0.696
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1220 23.87 69.93 78.61% -0.123 -0.0269 0.342
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1771 22.49 64.18 83.68% -0.357 -0.4944 -0.489
5 Archipelago 7 42.86 69.14 71.43% -0.146 -0.5623 -0.489
5 Other 47 29.79 72.72 87.23% 0.218 0.4874 0.426
5 Thematic 27 51.85 80.22 59.26% -0.252 -0.3587 0.468
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 47.0 100.0%
6 Other 12 16.67 76.58 91.67% 0.034 0.9227 -0.241
6 Star 2 0.0 58.0 50.0% -0.854 0.0402 0.028
6 Thematic 59 23.73 58.86 52.54% 0.32 0.6829 -1.36
6 Two Centers (Default) 38 10.81 69.11 94.74% 0.006 0.3839 -0.127

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 611 48.17 43.86% -0.589 1.2428 -1.392
Aid From Lesser Spirits 560 49.73 48.39% -1.319 0.335 -1.173
All Things Weaken 362 47.29 43.09% -1.228 0.7486 -1.463
Back Against the Wall 536 47.81 43.1% -1.666 0.1931 -1.677
Disintegrating Ecosystem 593 42.91 38.79% -1.559 0.4153 -1.697
Downward Spiral 2706 45.83 30.93% -0.713 1.189 -1.493
Erosion of Will 657 45.95 42.31% -0.926 1.1174 -1.488
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 164 56.43 75.61% -0.072 0.5008 -0.64
Memory Fades to Dust 2706 44.93 28.86% -1.499 0.4801 -1.604
Power Corrodes the Spirit 320 46.34 43.44% -1.12 0.7719 -1.587
Promising Farmlands 575 41.73 33.74% -1.044 0.9949 -1.937
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 108 55.49 71.3% -0.185 0.2555 -0.23
Thriving Communities 290 42.8 29.31% -0.984 0.9804 -1.991
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.637
Unnatural Proliferation 330 46.13 40.61% -1.2 0.7062 -1.585
Untended Land Crumbles 342 45.69 44.15% -1.464 0.5708 -1.486

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5961 30.46% 52.92 77.47% 0.194 0.9619 -0.704
B 6208 27.95% 53.94 77.96% -0.04 0.653 -0.879
C 6522 26.5% 54.81 79.53% -0.286 0.2789 -0.601
D 5702 27.76% 54.85 78.41% -0.381 0.3872 -0.723
E 2280 28.66% 55.03 78.16% 0.59 1.1892 -1.162
F 3711 24.28% 54.01 79.47% -0.393 0.3168 -1.01
G 3473 23.84% 55.66 81.03% -0.023 0.7031 -0.696
H 4178 24.72% 59.38 78.65% -0.138 0.5521 -0.55
East 7503 48.89% 58.64 51.35% -0.305 0.317 -0.883
Northeast 4270 48.33% 58.74 48.59% -0.698 -0.0164 -1.465
Northwest 2240 38.15% 61.03 61.88% -0.479 0.5874 -1.15
Southeast 791 41.59% 56.46 58.91% -0.728 -0.0004 -1.327
Southwest 576 29.17% 50.37 56.6% -1.327 -0.3564 -1.688
West 4647 36.71% 59.76 62.38% 0.471 1.4746 -0.788

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 290 0.0% 47.94 78.62% -0.68 1.3312 -0.285
Not Using Events or Tokens 8319 48.56% 51.92 54.04% 0.194 0.4087 -0.314
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1069 15.78% 65.89 84.85% 0.147 0.0537 0.015
Start of Game Growth 1402 15.23% 64.68 84.95% -0.413 -1.1202 0.499
Unlimited Undo 2258 22.39% 56.31 82.99% 0.382 -0.3178 0.365
Using Tokens but Not Events 3399 14.51% 54.88 88.91% 1.009 0.9638 0.441

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4392 22.6 0.0%
II 20523 31.02 84.93%
III 5558 34.59 84.06%
IV 1978 37.83 19.46%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.662 Win Model: 0.379
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 20536 38.61% 53.06 64.23%
2 6374 31.4% 52.22 74.95%
3 2356 24.02% 56.38 80.26%
4 3052 21.93% 66.53 82.96%
5 43 27.91% 72.26 69.77%
6 90 15.73% 61.32 74.44%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 244
Lose: Adversary condition 3418
Win: Sacrifice victory 21
Lose: Scenario condition 1890
Win: Scenario condition 22467
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4066
Lose: Spirit destroyed 345

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)