Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 298 24.5% 47.84 -7.682 72.82% -0.987 -0.4793
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 260 25.77% 55.35 -1.447 79.23% -0.713 -0.3092
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 166 38.55% 61.89 -1.264 80.12% -0.91 0.2676
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 153 45.75% 59.96 8.024 68.63% 0.064 1.4896
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 44 70.45% 54.14 -12.767 40.91% -0.477 1.1033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 20.551 13.46% 0.401 2.3369
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 216 73.02% 48.23 2.489 19.91% -0.579 1.6922
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1234 19.97% 46.51 -3.565 81.28% -0.092 -0.1392
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 851 29.79% 47.88 -0.273 74.27% -0.696 -0.9285
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1080 25.37% 61.11 1.87 82.22% -0.39 -0.2004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 994 28.33% 68.6 8.101 83.4% -0.03 0.3361
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 600 30.0% 73.74 6.456 82.67% -0.674 -0.3155
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 446 55.61% 68.71 16.121 61.21% 0.166 1.3324
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2617 80.14% 60.79 7.324 38.86% -1.076 0.3701
The Kingdom of England 0 1 871 21.35% 45.9 -3.545 79.68% -0.408 0.149
The Kingdom of England 1 3 559 27.47% 53.53 1.199 75.31% -0.585 0.0926
The Kingdom of England 2 4 480 40.59% 49.03 -1.922 59.38% -0.969 0.1846
The Kingdom of England 3 6 479 47.35% 51.15 -5.196 48.02% -2.149 -0.4722
The Kingdom of England 4 7 351 45.27% 57.18 13.144 51.57% 0.305 1.772
The Kingdom of England 5 9 198 75.63% 45.42 12.557 17.17% -0.175 1.8683
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2269 69.03% 48.74 0.76 14.46% -2.387 0.1759
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 631 26.39% 49.24 -1.685 78.29% -0.124 0.5496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 344 42.15% 49.63 -0.696 68.9% -0.328 0.7439
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 719 25.73% 57.84 1.352 65.09% -0.303 1.8119
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 456 42.98% 52.86 0.768 42.98% -0.959 1.171
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 366 41.8% 56.32 2.29 42.9% -0.715 1.6303
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 191 58.12% 63.74 -1.789 45.55% -1.163 0.9022
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2273 42.4% 63.6 8.272 38.5% -1.356 0.8186
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 40 10.0% 51.8 -2.722 95.0% 0.271 0.1775
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 26 26.92% 53.23 -1.409 76.92% -0.691 0.1999
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 16 31.25% 45.13 2.037 50.0% -0.161 1.0415
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 21 52.38% 66.24 6.185 52.38% -0.402 0.4571
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 19 52.63% 57.84 -4.334 47.37% -0.889 0.3282
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 68 66.18% 62.1 1.316 45.59% -0.88 0.3585
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 123 70.49% 57.92 0.201 16.26% -2.133 -0.575
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 649 21.03% 45.66 -5.268 81.36% -0.542 -0.371
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 505 22.02% 51.59 -0.584 85.35% 0.353 0.573
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 501 29.92% 52.51 -0.618 77.64% -0.696 -0.4158
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 515 35.53% 63.16 1.542 81.94% -0.39 0.0619
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 338 48.82% 62.55 0.417 76.04% -0.417 0.5835
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 153 56.86% 56.64 11.296 58.17% 0.139 1.1799
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 839 47.91% 68.28 8.141 71.04% -0.447 0.7114
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 335 17.61% 50.6 -3.033 90.45% 0.121 -0.331
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 244 26.23% 57.61 -1.556 81.15% -0.311 0.4913
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 203 20.69% 64.88 -2.008 85.22% -0.151 0.2856
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 98 47.96% 59.87 13.975 64.29% 0.078 1.3173
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 58 36.21% 67.78 16.36 65.52% 0.046 1.1886
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 49 63.27% 68.2 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1416 42.47% 85.86 18.755 61.94% 0.155 2.126

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 14108 29.83 51.23 75.35% 0.254 0.9167 0.875
1 Thematic 6799 52.95 56.44 45.77% 0.175 1.2313 0.631
2 Archipelago 69 37.68 87.23 62.32% -0.278 0.1925 1.008
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3350 27.54 52.56 81.46% 0.219 0.7367 0.712
2 Coastline 349 32.65 51.66 72.21% 0.412 0.6127 -0.002
2 Fragment 64 32.81 48.72 71.88% 0.475 0.7735 -0.88
2 Heart 65 26.15 52.52 40.0% -1.001 -0.5406 -2.031
2 Opposite Shores 1282 34.79 51.21 68.64% -0.439 0.0994 0.006
2 Thematic 1639 45.87 53.73 55.22% -0.705 0.0777 0.147
2 Top to Top 101 33.0 59.07 81.19% 0.391 0.5194 1.46
3 Archipelago 18 27.78 79.89 77.78% -0.102 -0.3199 0.303
3 Coastline 5 0.0 64.0 100.0% 0.042
3 Other 53 34.62 53.3 77.36% 0.423 -0.2411 0.458
3 Round (Default) 2062 21.49 55.08 83.12% 1.215 1.5196 -0.227
3 Sunrise 3 0.0 63.33 100.0% -0.218
3 Thematic 252 38.1 65.07 62.3% 0.21 0.4176 0.371
4 Archipelago 12 25.0 65.42 75.0% -0.537 -0.5743 -0.536
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.015 -0.022
4 Leaf 11 27.27 52.91 81.82% -0.797
4 Other 65 18.46 58.23 86.15% 0.173 -0.5405 -0.853
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1259 23.69 70.17 79.03% 1.021 1.1247 0.577
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1813 22.46 64.19 83.67% 0.167 0.2447 -0.411
5 Archipelago 7 42.86 69.14 71.43% 0.067 -0.0304 -0.365
5 Other 55 32.73 70.75 78.18% -0.221 -0.7376 0.387
5 Thematic 33 57.58 75.94 51.52% -0.897 -1.1848 0.033
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 47.0 100.0%
6 Other 12 16.67 76.58 91.67% -0.109
6 Star 2 0.0 58.0 50.0% 0.03
6 Thematic 102 22.55 61.68 54.9% -0.307 -0.0664 -1.302
6 Two Centers (Default) 43 9.52 67.72 93.02% -0.69 -0.4991 -0.05

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 618 48.18 44.01% -1.057 0.9135 -1.398
Aid From Lesser Spirits 571 49.82 48.34% -0.865 0.9125 -1.19
All Things Weaken 379 46.97 43.01% -1.539 0.5103 -1.451
Back Against the Wall 557 47.56 42.91% -1.848 0.0907 -1.718
Disintegrating Ecosystem 607 42.92 38.55% -1.73 0.3981 -1.733
Downward Spiral 2770 45.94 31.3% -1.065 0.8959 -1.499
Erosion of Will 670 45.93 41.94% -2.193 -0.1117 -1.512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 176 56.31 74.43% -0.778 -0.2762 -0.648
Memory Fades to Dust 2774 44.93 29.13% -1.522 0.6186 -1.62
Power Corrodes the Spirit 333 46.52 43.54% -1.12 0.8607 -1.589
Promising Farmlands 594 42.12 34.34% -1.007 1.0148 -1.933
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 116 55.26 70.69% -0.28 0.2165 -0.332
Thriving Communities 302 42.82 28.81% -1.992 0.0674 -2.045
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.66
Unnatural Proliferation 346 46.1 39.6% -2.005 -0.0477 -1.607
Untended Land Crumbles 361 45.94 44.6% -1.273 0.76 -1.439

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6178 30.19% 53.06 77.61% -0.203 0.5329 -0.662
B 6420 27.7% 53.95 78.12% -0.304 0.3936 -0.854
C 6794 26.4% 55.3 79.7% 0.101 0.5704 -0.565
D 5893 27.67% 54.85 78.35% -0.271 0.4388 -0.71
E 2381 28.32% 54.97 78.33% 0.035 0.5791 -1.122
F 3819 24.32% 54.08 79.52% -0.213 0.449 -0.967
G 3585 23.86% 55.68 80.98% -0.123 0.5075 -0.681
H 4301 24.56% 59.21 78.75% -0.239 0.4251 -0.528
East 7730 48.57% 58.72 51.66% 0.463 1.1244 -0.888
Northeast 4430 48.12% 58.8 48.76% -1.062 -0.4023 -1.487
Northwest 2355 37.73% 61.22 62.21% 0.148 0.7585 -1.145
Southeast 863 40.32% 57.18 59.1% 0.129 0.66 -1.334
Southwest 651 28.73% 50.9 56.22% -1.488 -0.5195 -1.668
West 4835 36.59% 59.74 62.38% -1.043 -0.2371 -0.799

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 302 0.0% 47.76 78.48% -0.742 1.4874 -0.356
Not Using Events or Tokens 8514 48.55% 51.9 54.32% 0.113 0.3397 -0.308
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1114 15.83% 66.16 84.29% 0.058 -0.922 -0.086
Start of Game Growth 1454 15.22% 64.97 84.59% 0.153 -0.3038 0.558
Unlimited Undo 2322 22.47% 56.3 82.64% -0.491 -1.0425 0.308
Using Tokens but Not Events 3633 14.53% 54.79 88.82% 0.536 0.691 0.464

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4508 22.65 0.0%
II 21349 31.08 85.14%
III 5743 34.66 84.07%
IV 2040 37.91 19.56%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.587 Win Model: 0.381
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 21353 38.2% 53.17 64.74%
2 6540 31.26% 52.2 74.94%
3 2419 23.97% 56.57 80.36%
4 3139 21.96% 66.59 82.99%
5 50 32.0% 69.66 64.0%
6 139 16.67% 63.0 70.5%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 254
Lose: Adversary condition 3520
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 1954
Win: Scenario condition 23381
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4156
Lose: Spirit destroyed 353

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)