Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 385 27.01% 45.63 -2.653 66.49% -0.616 -0.2649
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 313 25.88% 53.22 1.03 76.36% -0.1 0.1778
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 227 38.77% 54.61 -7.639 69.6% -1.007 -0.159
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 207 44.44% 57.26 -15.184 63.29% -1.414 -0.4473
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 0.0 37.74%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -5.201 12.96% -0.482 0.8575
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 285 64.44% 43.36 0.781 18.6% -0.912 1.1258
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1463 19.42% 44.66 -4.42 77.92% -0.385 -0.1345
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1067 27.74% 45.63 -1.786 70.85% -0.522 -0.4746
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1471 22.85% 56.06 0.499 74.98% -0.646 -0.4693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1276 28.59% 63.23 -2.421 76.65% -0.972 -0.7782
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 811 27.37% 64.76 -2.804 73.12% -0.906 -0.582
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 519 51.64% 66.24 -2.174 59.92% -1.442 -0.9349
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3096 74.47% 55.83 -5.777 35.92% -2.0 -0.642
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1055 22.05% 43.64 -2.39 74.98% -0.409 -0.0151
The Kingdom of England 1 3 665 29.0% 51.97 1.281 72.63% -0.144 0.2147
The Kingdom of England 2 4 685 40.7% 44.67 3.596 52.55% -0.271 0.5134
The Kingdom of England 3 6 587 44.73% 46.95 -12.45 42.59% -2.054 -0.89
The Kingdom of England 4 7 408 42.86% 55.8 -1.102 49.75% -1.396 -0.1129
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -5.33 15.84% -0.873 0.746
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2822 61.85% 44.93 -5.267 14.64% -1.966 0.1046
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 717 26.15% 48.68 1.86 77.13% 0.044 0.5499
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 409 41.32% 48.25 -1.345 66.75% -0.376 0.2851
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1147 22.93% 54.29 7.126 61.73% -0.138 0.8375
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 539 41.74% 52.3 3.073 43.78% -0.755 0.5596
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 388 41.49% 56.57 33.622 43.56% 0.179 1.6166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 376 48.4% 47.6 1.488 29.52% -1.184 -0.2452
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3650 36.53% 55.46 3.515 35.86% -1.057 0.3841
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 146 13.7% 39.77 -6.628 63.7% -0.887 -0.6159
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 92 39.13% 42.18 -4.855 53.26% -0.918 -0.4017
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 87 35.63% 37.09 -5.37 42.53% -1.111 -0.5419
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 122 41.8% 47.76 -2.342 37.7% -1.097 -0.6405
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 -2.235 48.84% -1.01 -0.2738
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 178 60.67% 61.24 6.004 47.75% -0.899 -0.374
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 546 62.57% 44.26 -5.765 14.47% -2.555 -1.4504
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 804 23.05% 42.71 -5.218 75.75% -0.668 -0.4183
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 612 22.91% 49.5 -0.099 81.37% -0.199 -0.1463
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 635 31.8% 49.98 1.513 73.7% -0.233 -0.0182
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 886 23.02% 41.78 -7.145 54.18% -1.782 -1.4332
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 409 45.23% 58.72 -5.793 71.39% -1.387 -0.7533
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 207 53.14% 53.41 2.076 56.52% -0.479 0.4895
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1046 44.97% 61.31 -3.0 63.29% -1.169 -0.0937
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 462 19.48% 45.05 -5.899 79.22% -0.309 -0.2073
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 299 27.42% 54.01 -2.876 75.25% -0.101 0.7826
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 253 21.74% 61.47 -0.611 80.63% -0.436 0.0087
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 132 47.73% 55.0 -9.932 58.33% -0.802 0.2667
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 40.15 61.54% 0.376 1.335
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 74 55.41% 51.43 -13.8 29.73% -1.919 -0.3733
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2406 33.19% 67.78 4.895 50.29% -0.891 0.8755

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19708 28.48 49.49 72.01% 0.665 0.8122 0.972
1 Thematic 7752 51.14 53.89 44.53% 0.025 0.4671 0.671
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% 0.134
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4216 25.39 50.69 80.08% 0.239 0.3203 0.938
2 Coastline 519 27.76 46.52 67.63% 0.258 0.1511 0.244
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.515 0.1994 -0.48
2 Heart 93 39.78 49.84 32.26% -0.027 -0.0917 -1.525
2 Opposite Shores 1895 28.77 41.48 54.25% 0.232 0.1254 0.13
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1868 42.96 51.01 52.57% -0.761 -0.563 0.238
2 Top to Top 143 30.99 52.67 72.03% -0.428 -0.4965 1.147
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.219
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.565
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.115 0.8461 1.07
3 Round (Default) 2524 21.68 52.54 79.2% -0.099 -0.2843 0.272
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.646 -0.4496 0.604
3 Thematic 312 33.97 58.97 58.33% -0.322 -0.555 0.576
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.451
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.17
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.536
4 Other 70 24.29 58.23 82.86% -0.173
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1652 20.9 61.19 69.31% -0.251 -0.0035 0.615
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2121 21.44 60.19 78.6% -0.665 -0.3037 -0.165
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.037
5 Other 91 32.97 58.99 63.74% 0.736 0.2803 0.255
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.646 0.39 0.263
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.77
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% -0.356
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.214
6 Thematic 621 10.63 23.28 21.26% -0.441 -0.2701 -1.703
6 Two Centers (Default) 105 34.62 53.32 65.71% -1.254 -1.3895 -0.94
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.312
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.791

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 747 47.42 42.97% -0.238 -0.0625 -1.123
Aid From Lesser Spirits 662 49.81 47.58% -0.434 -0.4889 -0.911
All Things Weaken 479 46.63 42.38% -0.252 0.0251 -1.036
Attenuated Essence 60 45.93 30.0% 0.052 0.1398 -1.011
Back Against the Wall 654 46.88 42.05% -0.431 -0.3547 -1.373
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 72 38.88 26.39% -1.178 -0.9884 -1.425
Burn Brightest Before the End 50 38.92 24.0% -1.183 -0.9461 -1.813
Disintegrating Ecosystem 736 41.75 36.68% -0.978 -0.5923 -1.502
Downward Spiral 3209 44.48 32.22% -0.584 -0.4449 -1.153
Erosion of Will 805 45.48 40.62% -0.931 -0.6433 -1.193
Intensifying Exploitation 68 37.35 25.0% -0.601 -0.3719 -1.328
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 220 55.75 71.36% 0.562 0.0227 -0.119
Memory Fades to Dust 3229 43.49 30.07% -0.33 -0.0689 -1.288
Power Corrodes the Spirit 423 46.43 43.03% -0.32 -0.0583 -1.109
Promising Farmlands 711 42.06 34.04% -0.504 -0.1919 -1.533
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 37.23 23.26% -1.528 -1.3434 -1.731
Slow Dissolution of Will 50 40.72 32.0% 0.271 0.6175 -1.31
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 136 53.67 67.65% -0.381 -1.0108 -0.097
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.175 -0.6326 -0.705
Thriving Communities 395 41.63 27.85% -0.789 -0.4506 -1.685
Thriving Crops 29 38.97 44.83% -1.069 -1.0555 -0.873
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.368
Unnatural Proliferation 455 45.05 36.92% -0.98 -0.8451 -1.294
Untended Land Crumbles 455 44.88 42.64% -0.809 -0.4283 -1.098

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8508 27.83% 48.15 70.46% -0.36 0.4586 -1.137
B 8368 27.27% 50.93 73.72% -0.27 0.4979 -1.169
C 8957 25.64% 53.56 75.76% -0.166 0.4675 -0.859
D 7730 26.99% 51.22 72.78% -0.452 0.3279 -1.131
E 3501 27.7% 53.16 73.04% -0.109 0.5098 -1.221
F 4984 24.91% 50.85 74.0% -0.426 0.3046 -1.492
G 4557 24.26% 52.85 76.87% -0.427 0.373 -1.077
H 5644 22.99% 52.77 71.1% -0.461 0.2621 -0.934
East 9578 43.22% 53.11 47.65% 0.006 0.8394 -1.203
Northeast 5733 40.73% 51.45 43.94% -0.593 0.0982 -1.689
Northwest 3435 30.73% 50.04 50.89% -0.493 0.3116 -1.48
Southeast 1607 28.31% 40.42 40.88% -0.862 -0.1316 -1.661
Southwest 1327 20.87% 34.42 37.0% -1.271 0.0279 -1.752
West 6280 32.74% 52.23 54.52% 0.331 1.2407 -1.009

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 379 0.0% 43.5 70.71% 0.204 0.9935 -0.345
Not Using Events or Tokens 10539 44.63% 48.72 55.11% -0.669 -0.2683 -0.391
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1358 15.08% 65.72 82.18% 1.591 0.9575 0.164
Start of Game Growth 1749 14.64% 64.08 82.22% 0.536 -0.0143 0.667
Unlimited Undo 2928 21.78% 53.19 77.02% -0.124 -0.0812 0.141
Using Tokens but Not Events 5135 14.21% 48.06 75.95% -0.58 -0.6173 0.068

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7959 15.91 0.0%
II 26837 30.5 85.0%
III 6968 34.78 83.18%
IV 2485 38.4 20.16%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.086 Win Model: 0.335
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 28482 35.09% 50.1 62.33%
2 8089 29.95% 50.59 72.86%
3 2960 23.64% 53.81 76.62%
4 3856 20.82% 60.72 75.47%
5 111 34.23% 55.73 50.45%
6 751 13.08% 28.46 30.23%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3167
Lose: Invader deck ran out 326
Lose: Adversary condition 4081
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2341
Win: Scenario condition 29079
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4824
Lose: Spirit destroyed 402

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-26 05:36:00 (Pacific Time)