Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 178 21.91% 48.41 -2.209 73.03% -1.246 -0.966
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 131 25.19% 56.49 2.389 85.5% -0.126 0.247
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 85 38.82% 62.72 5.509 83.53% -0.301 0.5464
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 79 53.16% 54.99 2.131 63.29% -1.419 -0.1812
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 71.43% 61.1 5.232 61.9% -1.116 0.406
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 94.87% 35.1 -6.053 7.69% -3.052 -1.024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 116 70.69% 47.43 -1.264 24.14% -3.034 -0.9421
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1139 20.78% 46.27 -2.505 80.51% -0.849 -0.802
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 815 30.88% 46.93 -1.867 73.25% -1.133 -1.1609
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 740 30.93% 58.42 3.644 80.81% -0.7 -0.7021
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 860 34.7% 65.32 6.738 80.7% -0.546 -0.2618
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 436 39.07% 67.38 8.23 78.21% -0.571 -0.1929
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 411 59.02% 65.88 8.239 62.77% -1.06 -0.227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2798 82.62% 59.91 5.048 38.88% -1.721 -0.4712
The Kingdom of England 0 1 760 21.57% 46.23 -2.276 80.53% -0.711 -0.3785
The Kingdom of England 1 3 499 25.75% 54.68 1.909 80.16% -0.75 -0.2675
The Kingdom of England 2 4 436 41.2% 50.69 -0.147 63.76% -1.531 -0.5736
The Kingdom of England 3 6 449 52.97% 48.17 -1.357 43.43% -2.737 -1.1596
The Kingdom of England 4 7 320 50.63% 52.78 0.748 43.44% -2.566 -1.0438
The Kingdom of England 5 9 143 76.26% 44.29 -2.741 19.58% -3.476 -1.4121
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1956 68.83% 48.43 -1.41 14.93% -3.829 -1.5737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 651 26.35% 49.56 -0.718 79.88% -0.827 -0.3031
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 326 37.42% 51.33 0.07 74.54% -1.035 -0.144
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 633 25.43% 55.11 1.292 61.77% -2.241 -0.1123
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 607 45.38% 50.8 -0.328 41.19% -2.904 -0.7176
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 442 36.28% 58.38 3.111 48.64% -2.714 -0.569
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 209 48.33% 61.51 5.33 47.85% -2.288 -0.4692
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2086 38.44% 60.07 4.157 36.82% -3.108 -0.9726
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 616 22.79% 46.09 -2.492 81.98% -0.572 -0.4865
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 526 23.56% 51.83 0.095 85.74% -0.276 -0.2668
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 413 30.58% 52.6 0.544 78.93% -0.76 -0.5426
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 472 39.7% 62.34 5.58 82.42% -0.425 -0.1399
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 324 55.56% 59.52 4.372 71.6% -0.829 -0.0513
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 193 63.21% 55.4 3.182 54.92% -1.33 -0.1648
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 753 45.74% 69.06 6.887 73.84% -1.407 -0.2742
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 143 15.38% 51.64 -0.489 92.31% 0.452 0.3344
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 93 21.51% 60.96 3.474 90.32% 0.002 0.6904
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 58 13.79% 65.69 5.266 89.66% -0.243 0.1931
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 58 53.45% 59.71 4.902 65.52% -0.95 0.3246
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 27 44.44% 54.3 2.054 48.15% -2.172 -1.0142
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 60.0% 52.75 1.219 35.0% -2.07 -0.0335
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 517 29.65% 91.98 19.113 79.88% -0.991 0.9587

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 11954 31.95 50.22 -1.244 73.55% -0.107 0.2479
1 Thematic 6496 55.61 54.95 1.355 42.09% -0.366 0.1314
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3359 28.82 52.0 -0.421 80.83% 0.188 0.3772
2 Coastline 346 34.93 51.37 -0.795 79.19% 0.068 0.2026
2 Fragment 84 23.81 51.45 -0.472 78.57% -0.046 0.38
2 Heart 68 51.47 42.62 -4.445 55.88% -0.681 -0.3908
2 Opposite Shores 827 20.93 48.79 -1.672 84.64% 0.135 0.3611
2 Thematic 2015 38.94 52.33 -1.148 62.28% -0.404 -0.3601
2 Top to Top 92 33.7 56.65 1.914 78.26% 0.504 0.621
3 Coastline 6 50.0 54.0 -0.335 66.67% -0.114 -0.1516
3 Other 49 39.58 50.9 -1.181 73.47% -0.173 0.2291
3 Round (Default) 1614 24.76 53.95 -0.081 80.98% 0.08 0.1107
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 38.0 -4.744 100.0% 0.076 -0.1771
3 Thematic 217 41.94 56.52 0.46 61.29% 0.075 -0.2641
4 Leaf 9 11.11 47.11 -4.533 77.78% -0.777 -0.6972
4 Other 55 11.11 53.71 -1.424 87.27% -0.259 -0.1784
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 5.084 100.0% 0.11 0.2356
4 Thematic 980 28.63 68.03 3.133 74.39% 0.231 -0.8466
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1615 22.81 62.59 2.84 84.58% 0.328 0.2951
5 Other 4 0.0 83.25 10.436 100.0% 0.298 0.0806
5 Thematic 5 40.0 88.2 13.232 100.0% 0.873 -1.8945

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 642 47.96 -3.746 47.66% -1.633 0.4349
Aid From Lesser Spirits 593 49.57 -2.853 51.1% -1.547 0.3695
All Things Weaken 183 47.66 -4.113 51.91% -1.533 0.6275
Back Against the Wall 543 47.91 -3.751 46.04% -1.706 0.386
Disintegrating Ecosystem 594 40.62 -7.295 36.7% -2.24 -0.019
Downward Spiral 2784 46.32 -4.591 32.97% -1.945 0.0695
Erosion of Will 637 45.65 -4.651 44.9% -1.785 0.4265
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 93 54.32 0.222 73.12% -0.396 0.3161
Memory Fades to Dust 2823 45.58 -5.021 30.57% -2.082 0.134
Power Corrodes the Spirit 168 43.79 -5.826 42.26% -1.999 0.0212
Promising Farmlands 601 39.71 -7.644 30.78% -2.46 -0.2453
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 58 52.59 -1.351 68.97% -0.828 -0.4106
Thriving Communities 134 40.22 -7.333 32.09% -2.333 -0.2265
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.323 36.11% -2.096 0.1197
Unnatural Proliferation 161 45.55 -4.651 45.34% -1.797 0.2838
Untended Land Crumbles 174 43.94 -5.539 45.98% -1.806 0.289

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 6114 30.31% 51.37 -0.818 77.63% 0.219 -0.8539
B 6510 28.82% 53.19 0.026 79.09% 0.401 -0.7634
C 6703 27.56% 52.73 -0.029 79.77% 0.47 -0.9269
D 6095 28.14% 53.4 0.202 78.97% 0.447 -0.7115
E 1005 32.33% 53.66 -0.006 76.52% 0.378 -0.8792
F 2161 25.23% 53.63 -0.407 78.67% 0.205 -1.0211
G 2146 25.73% 55.45 0.394 79.87% 0.403 -0.809
H 2547 23.12% 60.37 2.016 80.68% 0.309 -0.9123
East 4660 44.14% 58.95 2.244 58.24% 0.391 -0.5452
Northeast 4127 50.53% 56.71 1.116 47.52% 0.273 -0.5963
Northwest 2302 40.63% 58.58 0.843 60.47% 0.239 -0.7061
Southeast 419 44.39% 56.07 0.626 58.95% 0.443 -0.5401
Southwest 253 30.83% 47.24 -5.061 54.55% -0.972 -1.5976
West 3336 36.94% 57.86 0.481 63.34% 0.061 -0.6041

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 364 0.0% 50.67 -2.559 79.4% -1.54 0.499
Not Using Events or Tokens 8380 49.68% 50.59 -1.268 52.61% -0.284 -0.0637
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1086 10.55% 68.16 5.913 88.31% 1.272 0.5663
Start of Game Growth 1264 12.0% 65.3 3.679 87.9% 0.239 -0.2204
Unlimited Undo 2784 21.19% 54.91 0.535 81.97% 0.099 -0.303
Using Tokens but Not Events 3046 16.64% 52.79 -0.403 89.1% 0.679 0.6331

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4299 22.34 0.0%
II 18847 30.71 84.18%
III 4987 34.23 83.12%
IV 1664 37.48 16.65%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.612 Win Model: -0.287
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 18459 40.34% 51.89 62.48%
2 6788 31.43% 51.63 75.37%
3 1888 27.16% 54.23 78.5%
4 2662 24.68% 64.41 80.95%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 283
Lose: Adversary condition 3321
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 1641
Win: Scenario condition 20284
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3943
Lose: Spirit destroyed 322

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)