Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 377 27.06% 45.74 1.054 66.84% -0.076 0.3558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 305 25.25% 53.52 -10.496 76.72% -0.519 -0.1398
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 213 38.97% 56.92 -0.857 72.77% -0.305 0.413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 203 44.83% 57.74 -6.055 64.04% -0.903 0.2054
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -17.195 37.74% -0.832 0.5647
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 279 64.75% 43.25 -11.91 18.28% -1.443 0.5677
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1423 19.76% 45.11 -2.064 78.71% -0.156 0.0437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1043 27.99% 45.88 -2.993 71.14% -0.476 -0.3803
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1376 23.92% 57.71 2.144 77.11% -0.294 -0.135
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1246 28.72% 63.83 4.916 77.37% -0.303 -0.0361
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 796 27.51% 65.55 2.113 73.99% -0.403 -0.1535
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 502 51.99% 67.14 11.944 60.76% 0.193 0.7975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3026 75.56% 56.58 -6.811 36.29% -2.124 -0.6772
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1034 22.07% 43.76 -0.946 75.34% -0.125 0.2299
The Kingdom of England 1 3 657 28.59% 51.95 -2.392 72.6% -0.617 -0.2855
The Kingdom of England 2 4 670 40.87% 44.46 -3.123 52.24% -1.053 -0.2968
The Kingdom of England 3 6 564 46.22% 48.17 0.04 43.79% -0.964 0.2471
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -20.452 50.12% -0.855 0.3009
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -19.638 16.13% -0.908 0.6586
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2764 62.7% 45.42 -6.742 14.58% -2.245 -0.2667
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 707 26.38% 48.74 1.136 77.23% 0.138 0.6227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 404 41.58% 48.24 -5.683 66.58% -1.194 -0.4765
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1116 22.67% 54.33 7.499 61.74% -0.043 1.0687
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 517 41.78% 52.51 5.15 43.52% -0.621 0.8609
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 388 41.49% 56.57 27.517 43.56% 0.196 1.6106
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 359 49.03% 48.69 -0.734 30.64% -1.255 -0.317
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3468 37.44% 55.96 7.564 35.61% -0.656 0.7288
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 138 13.77% 39.78 -0.268 63.77% -0.126 0.1537
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 89 38.2% 42.88 -1.871 55.06% -0.471 0.069
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 79 36.71% 38.2 -2.068 44.3% -0.595 -0.2129
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 106 46.23% 50.35 0.4 38.68% -1.403 -0.9908
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 77 41.56% 56.1 6.626 50.65% -0.357 0.5364
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 155 57.42% 61.96 4.798 47.1% -0.965 -0.2869
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 501 62.6% 45.54 -2.391 14.57% -2.032 -1.0632
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 773 23.59% 43.28 -0.533 76.71% -0.116 0.0947
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 603 22.43% 49.67 -3.653 81.76% -0.622 -0.534
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 615 31.7% 50.31 -1.91 73.98% -0.426 -0.2259
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 837 24.25% 43.58 -9.506 56.51% -2.163 -1.8205
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 400 46.0% 59.6 -5.467 72.5% -1.208 -0.4716
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 204 53.92% 53.81 19.917 56.86% 0.697 1.5048
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1009 44.89% 62.6 1.291 64.92% -0.714 0.3386
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 453 19.21% 45.19 -8.031 79.47% -0.559 -0.3866
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 0.593 75.85% -0.242 0.7586
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 246 21.95% 62.32 6.327 81.71% 0.031 0.2611
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 130 46.92% 55.08 5.786 58.46% -0.015 1.1315
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 2.45 61.04% -0.774 0.254
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 67 61.19% 56.81 -8.447 32.84% -2.015 -0.3646
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2150 33.52% 69.84 6.429 51.02% -0.47 1.2704

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18948 28.53 49.5 72.45% 0.252 0.3017 0.948
1 Thematic 7635 51.65 54.33 44.73% -0.346 0.131 0.67
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.532 -0.061 0.081
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4110 25.63 51.25 80.88% 0.729 0.649 0.99
2 Coastline 496 28.04 47.86 69.35% -0.182 -0.1183 0.31
2 Fragment 78 26.92 48.32 73.08% 0.546 0.1255 -0.478
2 Heart 92 39.13 49.95 31.52% -0.844 -1.003 -1.609
2 Opposite Shores 1850 29.09 41.89 54.65% -0.024 -0.1839 0.142
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1849 43.24 51.35 52.89% -0.023 0.1296 0.268
2 Top to Top 128 33.07 56.9 78.13% 0.691 0.599 1.326
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.186 -1.1863 -0.253
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.612 -0.122 0.543
3 Other 61 35.0 51.52 75.41% 0.805 0.3434 0.984
3 Round (Default) 2444 21.38 53.15 80.2% 0.096 -0.2159 0.257
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.62
3 Thematic 301 34.55 59.79 58.8% -0.341 -0.8304 0.591
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.533
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.151
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.435 0.8045 -0.557
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.231
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1593 21.29 62.57 70.68% 0.099 0.236 0.652
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2063 21.86 60.91 79.45% -0.224 -0.1476 -0.134
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.043 -0.2519 -0.068
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.63 -0.1261 0.157
5 Thematic 55 49.09 73.13 54.55% 1.03 1.2727 0.248
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.679
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.151 0.6253 -0.424
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -0.942 -0.9382 -1.226
6 Thematic 556 10.43 23.72 21.58% -1.244 -0.8447 -1.742
6 Two Centers (Default) 82 29.63 56.13 71.95% -0.389 -0.2291 -0.484
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.639 -0.5325 -0.302
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.806

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 731 47.28 42.68% -0.782 -0.7104 -1.167
Aid From Lesser Spirits 651 49.98 47.62% -0.103 -0.2283 -0.953
All Things Weaken 458 46.7 42.36% -0.284 0.0381 -1.087
Attenuated Essence 51 45.65 27.45% -0.556 -0.4964 -1.357
Back Against the Wall 642 46.65 41.74% -0.8 -0.7748 -1.441
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 61 40.64 29.51% -0.592 -0.4639 -1.325
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 41.09 27.27% -1.034 -0.9657 -1.682
Disintegrating Ecosystem 709 42.14 37.09% -0.979 -0.6837 -1.523
Downward Spiral 3173 44.6 32.08% -0.89 -0.7375 -1.215
Erosion of Will 782 45.48 40.41% -0.672 -0.4264 -1.208
Intensifying Exploitation 59 36.24 25.42% -0.298 -0.06 -1.333
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 211 54.84 71.09% -0.256 -0.8264 -0.212
Memory Fades to Dust 3186 43.55 29.88% -0.868 -0.5949 -1.352
Power Corrodes the Spirit 405 46.06 42.47% -0.183 0.0468 -1.148
Promising Farmlands 698 41.97 33.95% -0.052 0.2712 -1.586
Shattered Fragments of Power 39 38.21 25.64% -1.007 -0.8408 -1.677
Slow Dissolution of Will 40 38.08 27.5% 0.1 0.4495 -1.459
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.47 -0.2855 -0.072
The Border of Life and Death 14 39.79 57.14% 0.221 -0.13 -0.745
Thriving Communities 385 41.48 27.27% -1.349 -1.0541 -1.769
Thriving Crops 24 42.25 50.0% -0.706 -0.7757 -0.686
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.4
Unnatural Proliferation 440 45.16 37.27% -0.936 -0.7532 -1.348
Untended Land Crumbles 439 44.9 42.82% -0.306 -0.0729 -1.134

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8205 28.04% 48.58 71.2% -0.426 0.5835 -1.081
B 8083 27.23% 51.33 74.48% -0.34 0.5931 -1.145
C 8669 25.72% 53.91 76.4% -0.527 0.2814 -0.832
D 7429 27.18% 51.84 73.72% -0.579 0.3887 -1.094
E 3324 27.43% 53.48 73.92% 0.205 1.0265 -1.192
F 4837 24.9% 51.14 74.57% -0.632 0.2639 -1.478
G 4429 24.19% 53.27 77.67% -0.258 0.6178 -1.019
H 5483 23.08% 53.22 71.73% -0.211 0.6795 -0.882
East 9322 43.96% 53.93 48.25% 0.048 0.9983 -1.196
Northeast 5534 41.65% 52.56 44.69% -0.372 0.4735 -1.678
Northwest 3281 31.38% 51.31 52.21% -0.579 0.337 -1.46
Southeast 1507 28.87% 41.65 42.27% -0.224 0.6057 -1.657
Southwest 1233 20.84% 35.59 38.44% -1.811 -0.399 -1.717
West 6081 33.19% 53.14 55.43% -0.496 0.549 -1.012

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 368 0.0% 43.42 70.92% -1.463 -0.714 -0.367
Not Using Events or Tokens 10335 45.15% 49.17 55.37% 0.204 0.7034 -0.351
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1326 15.29% 65.7 82.2% 1.331 0.7396 0.105
Start of Game Growth 1711 14.85% 64.17 82.41% 0.77 0.3054 0.711
Unlimited Undo 2852 21.82% 53.43 77.49% 0.368 0.3113 0.106
Using Tokens but Not Events 4938 14.38% 49.02 77.58% -0.231 -0.1716 0.14

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7454 16.41 0.0%
II 26126 30.56 85.12%
III 6814 34.76 83.21%
IV 2439 38.34 20.09%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.067 Win Model: 0.41
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27537 35.45% 50.33 62.63%
2 7940 30.12% 50.94 73.21%
3 2870 23.53% 54.38 77.39%
4 3718 21.03% 61.86 76.92%
5 97 30.93% 59.76 54.64%
6 671 12.41% 28.73 30.55%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2634
Lose: Invader deck ran out 318
Lose: Adversary condition 4033
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2302
Win: Scenario condition 28370
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4750
Lose: Spirit destroyed 397

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-05 04:23:32 (Pacific Time)