Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 207 23.67% 48.16 -2.34 73.43% -1.18 -0.8988
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 152 25.0% 55.85 2.028 84.21% -0.315 0.0745
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 98 38.78% 61.96 5.114 81.63% -0.357 0.5136
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 87 52.87% 54.48 1.767 62.07% -1.484 -0.2264
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 76.0% 58.28 3.74 56.0% -1.317 0.2122
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 94.87% 35.1 -6.063 7.69% -3.032 -1.0062
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 135 72.59% 47.68 -1.309 23.7% -3.04 -0.9693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1211 20.78% 46.11 -2.669 80.43% -0.866 -0.8282
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 868 30.61% 47.0 -1.873 73.27% -1.128 -1.1584
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 794 30.2% 58.65 3.629 80.86% -0.729 -0.7243
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 909 34.26% 65.68 6.841 80.97% -0.539 -0.2473
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 513 36.69% 69.81 9.136 79.53% -0.488 -0.1267
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 437 58.03% 66.63 8.521 62.93% -1.037 -0.2089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2982 82.17% 60.12 4.983 39.2% -1.721 -0.4767
The Kingdom of England 0 1 839 21.69% 46.15 -2.372 80.69% -0.684 -0.3527
The Kingdom of England 1 3 539 26.82% 53.82 1.486 78.11% -0.874 -0.3735
The Kingdom of England 2 4 480 41.6% 50.43 -0.261 63.13% -1.527 -0.558
The Kingdom of England 3 6 495 53.1% 48.6 -0.995 44.65% -2.58 -1.0008
The Kingdom of England 4 7 368 51.64% 52.45 0.888 43.48% -2.47 -0.9689
The Kingdom of England 5 9 153 75.84% 43.83 -2.963 18.95% -3.531 -1.4616
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2091 68.45% 48.65 -1.468 15.26% -3.798 -1.5462
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 682 25.74% 49.74 -0.758 80.35% -0.802 -0.2772
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 338 37.57% 51.07 -0.078 73.96% -1.062 -0.1691
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 672 25.3% 55.57 1.388 62.5% -2.2 -0.0708
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 625 45.83% 50.85 -0.309 41.28% -2.88 -0.6937
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 448 36.02% 58.47 3.096 48.88% -2.705 -0.5624
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 214 48.13% 61.93 5.506 48.6% -2.248 -0.4249
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2207 37.42% 60.71 4.253 37.92% -3.089 -0.9734
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 671 22.41% 46.03 -2.573 81.97% -0.586 -0.4969
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 552 22.81% 51.88 0.033 86.05% -0.264 -0.2444
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 455 30.68% 52.33 0.434 78.24% -0.768 -0.5452
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 501 39.4% 62.35 5.527 82.44% -0.42 -0.1346
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 338 55.62% 59.62 4.387 71.89% -0.812 -0.0446
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 197 63.45% 55.06 2.997 54.31% -1.345 -0.1843
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 789 45.05% 69.48 6.99 74.65% -1.366 -0.233
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 180 16.67% 50.49 -0.952 91.11% 0.274 0.1542
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 115 22.61% 59.19 2.52 87.83% -0.296 0.4227
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 79 13.92% 66.1 5.19 89.87% -0.276 0.1657
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 65 53.85% 57.94 4.003 61.54% -1.219 0.032
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 30 43.33% 58.0 3.621 53.33% -2.002 -0.8779
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 60.0% 52.75 1.212 35.0% -2.065 -0.0188
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 696 28.78% 92.99 19.153 80.46% -1.002 0.9325

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 13031 31.53 50.32 -1.329 73.92% -0.151 0.1765
1 Thematic 6947 55.4 55.57 1.485 42.8% -0.413 0.0604
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3582 28.17 52.06 -0.464 81.21% 0.205 0.4021
2 Coastline 374 35.54 50.95 -1.003 77.27% 0.044 0.1949
2 Fragment 88 25.0 50.67 -0.852 77.27% -0.129 0.2757
2 Heart 69 52.17 42.38 -4.533 55.07% -0.685 -0.3731
2 Opposite Shores 937 21.9 48.76 -1.54 83.03% 0.305 0.5279
2 Thematic 2067 38.9 52.47 -1.207 62.36% -0.426 -0.397
2 Top to Top 97 35.05 55.58 1.424 77.32% 0.441 0.5815
3 Coastline 7 42.86 52.57 -1.147 71.43% -0.066 -0.1129
3 Other 51 38.0 50.71 -1.231 74.51% -0.063 0.3758
3 Round (Default) 1782 24.73 53.83 -0.171 81.14% 0.138 0.1959
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 38.0 -4.705 100.0% 0.08 -0.1168
3 Thematic 271 37.27 63.54 1.996 64.94% 0.082 -0.2794
4 Coastline 1 0.0 26.0 -16.88 0.0% -0.949 -0.7778
4 Leaf 9 11.11 47.11 -4.504 77.78% -0.704 -0.6403
4 Other 59 12.07 53.53 -1.482 88.14% -0.086 0.0454
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 5.141 100.0% 0.13 0.2859
4 Thematic 1082 27.96 68.04 2.886 75.05% 0.242 -0.8174
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1783 22.8 62.77 2.899 83.4% 0.435 0.4732
5 Other 4 0.0 83.25 10.303 100.0% 0.323 0.1237
5 Thematic 6 50.0 91.0 14.431 100.0% 1.281 -1.6752

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 675 47.89 -3.879 47.56% -1.645 0.4251
Aid From Lesser Spirits 626 49.68 -2.916 51.44% -1.54 0.382
All Things Weaken 208 46.46 -4.884 49.04% -1.684 0.4693
Back Against the Wall 577 48.21 -3.683 46.62% -1.684 0.4123
Disintegrating Ecosystem 622 40.77 -7.294 36.98% -2.225 0.0011
Downward Spiral 3002 46.3 -4.741 33.21% -1.95 0.069
Erosion of Will 670 45.6 -4.743 45.07% -1.793 0.4176
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 107 54.07 -0.005 73.83% -0.421 0.2729
Memory Fades to Dust 3014 45.54 -5.176 30.76% -2.083 0.1325
Power Corrodes the Spirit 187 44.06 -5.706 42.78% -1.939 0.0777
Promising Farmlands 625 39.68 -7.73 30.88% -2.456 -0.2429
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 71 54.14 -0.899 69.01% -0.767 -0.3369
Thriving Communities 155 40.94 -7.223 32.26% -2.383 -0.2868
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.422 36.11% -2.109 0.1125
Unnatural Proliferation 188 45.26 -4.968 44.68% -1.909 0.1772
Untended Land Crumbles 203 44.3 -5.726 46.31% -1.843 0.2535

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 6557 30.09% 51.37 -0.827 77.64% 0.257 -0.844
B 6981 28.74% 53.13 -0.015 78.83% 0.434 -0.7625
C 7177 27.52% 52.8 -0.015 79.92% 0.514 -0.9149
D 6501 28.17% 53.35 0.146 78.88% 0.473 -0.7177
E 1262 30.41% 53.9 -0.158 76.94% 0.383 -0.9155
F 2478 24.55% 53.59 -0.512 78.37% 0.208 -1.0466
G 2439 24.99% 55.5 0.27 79.54% 0.4 -0.8421
H 2915 23.01% 60.55 2.034 80.21% 0.353 -0.9042
East 5008 44.0% 59.65 2.279 58.69% 0.451 -0.5092
Northeast 4382 49.47% 57.53 1.192 48.52% 0.308 -0.5927
Northwest 2439 40.43% 59.07 0.828 61.05% 0.299 -0.6754
Southeast 473 43.76% 55.75 0.298 59.41% 0.481 -0.523
Southwest 306 31.7% 47.45 -5.223 54.58% -0.958 -1.5578
West 3614 36.15% 59.28 0.881 64.5% 0.157 -0.5426

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 388 0.0% 50.53 -2.673 79.64% -1.511 0.538
Not Using Events or Tokens 9109 49.35% 50.94 -1.142 53.23% -0.266 -0.0459
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1176 11.26% 68.06 5.781 87.5% 1.151 0.4461
Start of Game Growth 1387 12.51% 65.31 3.674 87.31% 0.303 -0.149
Unlimited Undo 2917 21.49% 54.83 0.426 82.0% 0.124 -0.2927
Using Tokens but Not Events 3310 16.17% 52.63 -0.57 89.18% 0.648 0.5965

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4523 22.33 0.0%
II 20413 30.75 84.35%
III 5466 34.25 83.24%
IV 1847 37.47 17.22%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.613 Win Model: -0.372
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 19987 39.89% 52.15 63.11%
2 7211 31.12% 51.62 75.47%
3 2117 26.67% 55.08 78.93%
4 2934 24.47% 64.52 80.44%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 308
Lose: Adversary condition 3512
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 1807
Win: Scenario condition 22081
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4174
Lose: Spirit destroyed 361

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)