Results with Adversaries

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 657 47.92 -3.779 47.49% -1.631 0.4388
Aid From Lesser Spirits 614 49.4 -2.951 50.98% -1.553 0.3651
All Things Weaken 200 46.25 -4.849 49.0% -1.691 0.464
Back Against the Wall 562 48.27 -3.626 46.8% -1.669 0.4271
Disintegrating Ecosystem 608 40.67 -7.272 37.01% -2.227 -0.003
Downward Spiral 2868 46.31 -4.65 33.23% -1.948 0.0685
Erosion of Will 654 45.47 -4.764 44.8% -1.797 0.4126
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 100 53.53 -0.168 73.0% -0.454 0.2501
Memory Fades to Dust 2902 45.56 -5.066 30.7% -2.076 0.1388
Power Corrodes the Spirit 178 43.99 -5.731 42.7% -1.968 0.0524
Promising Farmlands 617 39.71 -7.705 30.63% -2.475 -0.262
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 54.63 -0.514 71.88% -0.671 -0.235
Thriving Communities 147 39.68 -7.629 30.61% -2.466 -0.368
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.367 36.11% -2.103 0.1156
Unnatural Proliferation 176 45.65 -4.622 46.02% -1.81 0.2679
Untended Land Crumbles 193 44.19 -5.561 47.15% -1.794 0.305

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 6320 30.3% 51.35 -0.819 77.67% 0.254 -0.8355
B 6700 28.97% 53.08 -0.015 78.97% 0.433 -0.7521
C 6900 27.67% 52.66 -0.062 79.78% 0.504 -0.9106
D 6270 28.31% 53.31 0.166 78.93% 0.476 -0.7008
E 1127 31.79% 53.66 -0.103 76.93% 0.398 -0.8787
F 2302 25.04% 53.55 -0.459 78.67% 0.239 -1.0045
G 2271 25.65% 55.45 0.364 79.79% 0.435 -0.7956
H 2725 23.13% 60.73 2.119 80.7% 0.361 -0.8794
East 4808 43.79% 59.27 2.243 58.55% 0.389 -0.5621
Northeast 4233 49.93% 57.15 1.173 48.12% 0.273 -0.6172
Northwest 2363 40.4% 58.77 0.81 60.81% 0.236 -0.7287
Southeast 450 44.44% 55.64 0.321 58.44% 0.4 -0.6016
Southwest 282 30.85% 47.44 -5.047 54.26% -0.962 -1.5703
West 3479 36.52% 58.59 0.677 63.9% 0.076 -0.6099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 373 0.0% 50.34 -2.713 79.36% -1.558 0.4864
Not Using Events or Tokens 8653 49.6% 50.68 -1.237 52.93% -0.273 -0.0537
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1129 11.34% 68.25 5.892 87.78% 1.199 0.4946
Start of Game Growth 1319 12.66% 65.49 3.728 87.49% 0.286 -0.1685
Unlimited Undo 2845 21.58% 54.9 0.537 82.04% 0.137 -0.2753
Using Tokens but Not Events 3146 16.44% 52.67 -0.482 89.03% 0.654 0.6063

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4397 22.34 0.0%
II 19565 30.75 84.31%
III 5200 34.26 83.13%
IV 1750 37.47 16.8%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.608 Win Model: -0.284
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 19161 40.19% 52.02 62.78%
2 6991 31.16% 51.6 75.51%
3 1987 27.06% 54.79 78.76%
4 2773 24.78% 64.34 80.78%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 294
Lose: Adversary condition 3405
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 1723
Win: Scenario condition 21109
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4041
Lose: Spirit destroyed 336

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)