Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 324 25.62% 46.86 -3.01 70.37% -0.882 -0.6192
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 287 26.13% 54.87 1.669 78.75% 0.141 0.4869
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 185 37.3% 60.19 3.043 77.3% -0.356 0.4738
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 177 45.76% 60.05 6.073 67.23% -0.249 0.7426
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 48 70.83% 53.35 -16.027 39.58% -1.225 0.0944
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 254 68.77% 44.95 -9.248 18.11% -2.229 -0.2164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1301 20.02% 46.29 -1.276 80.63% -0.25 -0.1646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 921 29.15% 47.23 -1.579 73.18% -0.506 -0.6015
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1177 25.17% 60.65 2.897 81.05% -0.541 -0.5521
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1095 28.73% 66.73 4.771 81.0% -0.261 -0.0638
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 712 28.23% 69.61 4.542 78.51% -0.579 -0.3763
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 474 53.8% 68.92 13.236 62.24% -0.226 0.3351
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2765 78.27% 59.18 -4.956 37.9% -2.362 -1.0241
The Kingdom of England 0 1 932 21.45% 45.13 -5.096 78.11% -0.988 -0.7228
The Kingdom of England 1 3 591 27.84% 53.76 7.65 75.8% 0.751 0.9351
The Kingdom of England 2 4 550 41.24% 47.68 -3.701 56.55% -1.521 -0.7838
The Kingdom of England 3 6 524 46.71% 49.69 -2.715 45.8% -1.758 -0.619
The Kingdom of England 4 7 373 44.2% 56.84 -0.028 51.21% -1.645 -0.5988
The Kingdom of England 5 9 205 73.53% 44.37 -19.102 16.59% -1.402 0.2385
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2483 67.21% 47.93 -2.434 14.66% -2.576 -0.5344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 658 26.22% 49.14 1.834 77.96% -0.01 0.3923
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 368 40.49% 49.77 4.914 69.29% 0.519 1.4741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 862 24.01% 56.56 3.362 64.04% -0.467 0.6061
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 478 42.47% 53.06 6.882 43.93% -0.302 0.9863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 375 41.87% 56.5 2.065 43.47% -1.078 0.324
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 226 54.87% 60.38 -2.373 42.04% -1.082 -0.1528
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2486 41.42% 62.85 4.276 38.78% -1.262 0.0818
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 69 17.39% 44.9 -4.95 75.36% -1.004 -0.9875
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 41 31.71% 50.39 2.522 68.29% -0.363 0.0669
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 44 43.18% 39.93 -2.087 43.18% -0.806 -0.3648
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 34 38.24% 65.12 10.809 61.76% 0.268 0.6537
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 42 45.24% 55.52 3.567 47.62% -1.162 -0.5431
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 99 61.62% 62.9 8.471 48.48% -0.259 0.5245
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 226 60.0% 45.97 -8.648 14.16% -2.331 -1.0557
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 687 22.79% 45.13 -4.855 80.06% -0.491 -0.3112
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 539 22.49% 51.24 1.346 84.6% 0.001 0.0269
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 541 30.48% 51.87 -2.173 76.89% -0.622 -0.3993
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 600 30.83% 57.77 -2.147 75.0% -0.834 -0.4065
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 372 47.31% 61.7 2.992 75.0% -0.597 0.0112
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 192 53.65% 53.69 -1.922 57.29% -1.063 -0.0534
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 901 46.72% 66.57 -2.471 69.15% -1.559 -0.6718
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 380 18.68% 48.36 -6.118 86.05% -0.694 -0.5732
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 272 27.21% 55.57 -2.514 77.21% -0.67 -0.0296
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 213 21.13% 64.02 8.846 84.04% 0.527 0.9524
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 104 47.12% 58.64 -7.244 62.5% -0.943 0.1719
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 66 37.88% 64.67 -8.368 62.12% -1.046 -0.1419
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 49 63.27% 68.2 0.0 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1561 40.51% 86.69 16.599 63.36% -0.017 1.8233

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 15832 29.41 50.86 74.68% -0.148 -0.094 0.768
1 Thematic 7210 52.55 55.52 45.42% -0.385 0.093 0.485
2 Archipelago 94 31.91 67.86 46.81% -0.541 -0.4371 0.453
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3582 27.04 52.56 81.71% 0.743 0.8255 0.754
2 Coastline 403 30.03 50.78 72.95% 0.201 0.0473 0.016
2 Fragment 68 30.88 50.44 73.53% 1.108 0.8585 -0.533
2 Heart 67 25.37 52.84 41.79% -1.84
2 Opposite Shores 1408 35.16 51.43 67.26% 0.85 0.873 0.002
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1730 44.66 52.78 53.99% -0.467 -0.0632 0.094
2 Top to Top 108 32.71 58.01 80.56% -0.273 -0.4393 1.451
3 Archipelago 19 31.58 78.58 78.95% 0.462
3 Coastline 6 0.0 61.83 100.0% 0.209 -0.3044 0.064
3 Other 59 32.76 51.85 76.27% 0.249 0.79 0.688
3 Round (Default) 2210 21.0 54.17 81.86% -0.522 -0.637 -0.103
3 Sunrise 5 0.0 85.6 100.0% 0.388 0.6675 0.319
3 Thematic 271 36.9 63.05 60.89% 0.115 0.1955 0.425
4 Archipelago 12 25.0 65.42 75.0% 0.565 -0.1097 -0.406
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.293
4 Leaf 12 25.0 52.75 83.33% 0.03 -0.3128 -0.708
4 Other 65 18.46 58.23 86.15% -0.635
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1365 22.65 67.91 76.63% 0.117 -0.1449 0.646
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1889 22.25 63.37 82.58% -0.395 -0.4774 -0.252
5 Archipelago 7 42.86 69.14 71.43% -0.183
5 Other 70 37.14 67.61 70.0% -0.382 -0.667 0.538
5 Thematic 38 50.0 76.11 55.26% 0.538 0.444 0.21
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 47.0 100.0%
6 Other 21 9.52 51.38 61.9% -1.269 -1.5017 -0.979
6 Star 3 0.0 65.0 66.67% 0.112 0.0995 0.052
6 Thematic 232 12.93 39.8 37.5% -1.057 -0.6361 -1.61
6 Two Centers (Default) 48 8.51 64.79 89.58% 0.049 0.1534 -0.021

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 668 47.72 43.56% -0.88 -0.6378 -1.308
Aid From Lesser Spirits 602 50.02 48.01% -0.471 -0.5483 -1.15
All Things Weaken 410 46.88 43.66% -0.475 -0.0827 -1.345
Attenuated Essence 12 49.08 41.67% 0.055 0.1614 -0.588
Back Against the Wall 587 47.5 42.93% -1.167 -1.1092 -1.601
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 19 41.37 47.37% -0.368 -0.1663 -0.777
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 38.69 61.54% -0.196 0.0141 -0.635
Disintegrating Ecosystem 645 42.96 38.45% -0.946 -0.5227 -1.654
Downward Spiral 2937 45.55 31.6% -0.725 -0.4894 -1.397
Erosion of Will 710 45.99 41.83% -0.578 -0.2684 -1.4
Intensifying Exploitation 19 39.21 42.11% -0.407 -0.119 -0.555
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 186 56.52 74.19% 0.241 -0.2531 -0.381
Memory Fades to Dust 2952 44.52 29.47% -0.963 -0.6268 -1.521
Power Corrodes the Spirit 360 46.44 43.06% -0.627 -0.4069 -1.408
Promising Farmlands 635 41.7 33.7% -1.215 -0.7618 -1.838
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 35.33 22.22% -0.665 -0.6136 -0.788
Slow Dissolution of Will 16 38.5 25.0% -1.221 -0.8214 -1.276
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 122 55.05 69.67% -0.144 -0.8548 -0.306
The Border of Life and Death 2 54.0 100.0% 0.323 -0.0127 0.218
Thriving Communities 323 42.52 28.17% -1.02 -0.6574 -1.957
Thriving Crops 8 35.0 62.5% -0.095 -0.293 -0.371
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.574
Unnatural Proliferation 380 45.91 39.21% -1.165 -0.9498 -1.486
Untended Land Crumbles 390 44.93 44.36% -1.002 -0.7207 -1.376

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6722 29.43% 52.39 77.0% -0.271 0.4688 -0.951
B 6985 27.78% 53.33 76.98% -0.359 0.3668 -1.088
C 7454 26.07% 55.36 78.9% -0.198 0.384 -0.787
D 6413 27.2% 53.86 76.92% -0.55 0.1611 -1.001
E 2670 27.66% 53.84 76.78% -0.13 0.4355 -1.337
F 4217 24.68% 53.21 77.8% -0.28 0.39 -1.271
G 3873 23.6% 54.94 80.17% -0.42 0.232 -0.919
H 4613 24.03% 58.34 78.34% -0.327 0.2437 -0.758
East 8337 46.85% 57.15 50.7% -0.329 0.2094 -1.146
Northeast 4810 45.67% 56.84 47.65% -0.904 -0.2696 -1.701
Northwest 2671 35.51% 57.97 58.93% -0.311 0.4981 -1.401
Southeast 1080 35.09% 51.52 53.06% -0.672 0.0341 -1.602
Southwest 826 25.42% 45.65 50.48% -1.032 -0.0418 -1.764
West 5281 35.5% 57.58 60.12% -0.905 -0.0016 -1.024

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 314 0.0% 46.93 77.39% -2.177 -1.4013 -0.256
Not Using Events or Tokens 9127 47.79% 51.09 54.6% 0.204 0.5836 -0.306
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1193 15.94% 66.52 83.82% 0.957 0.3392 0.026
Start of Game Growth 1543 15.43% 65.28 84.06% 0.732 0.3835 0.678
Unlimited Undo 2586 22.92% 55.15 79.89% -0.047 -0.0537 0.115
Using Tokens but Not Events 4160 14.79% 53.12 85.22% 0.442 0.4318 0.284

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5284 20.4 0.0%
II 23209 31.01 85.26%
III 6151 34.76 83.68%
IV 2201 38.07 19.45%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.281 Win Model: 0.129
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 23563 37.38% 52.46 64.45%
2 7027 30.82% 52.05 74.61%
3 2586 23.27% 55.77 79.43%
4 3322 21.62% 65.36 81.31%
5 63 28.57% 63.54 60.32%
6 284 10.25% 43.85 48.94%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 641
Lose: Invader deck ran out 286
Lose: Adversary condition 3714
Win: Sacrifice victory 25
Lose: Scenario condition 2096
Win: Scenario condition 25337
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4375
Lose: Spirit destroyed 371

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)