Results with Adversaries

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 623 48.18 43.98% -1.331 0.644 -1.398
Aid From Lesser Spirits 578 50.01 48.44% -0.761 0.981 -1.207
All Things Weaken 386 47.4 43.78% -0.91 1.1582 -1.442
Back Against the Wall 564 47.58 42.91% -2.41 -0.4923 -1.73
Disintegrating Ecosystem 614 43.0 38.76% -1.132 0.9493 -1.742
Downward Spiral 2786 45.87 31.3% -1.56 0.3198 -1.51
Erosion of Will 677 46.05 41.95% -1.271 0.8162 -1.512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 178 56.47 74.72% 0.427 0.9436 -0.633
Memory Fades to Dust 2791 44.91 29.13% -1.82 0.2584 -1.627
Power Corrodes the Spirit 336 46.69 43.75% -1.356 0.5435 -1.598
Promising Farmlands 599 41.99 34.06% -1.956 0.0769 -1.963
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 118 55.58 70.34% -0.743 -0.2778 -0.375
Thriving Communities 306 42.82 28.76% -1.905 0.1426 -2.051
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.67
Unnatural Proliferation 353 46.6 40.23% -0.873 1.0561 -1.569
Untended Land Crumbles 367 46.11 44.96% -1.561 0.4384 -1.452

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6245 30.2% 53.07 77.65% -0.259 0.4874 -0.671
B 6512 27.7% 53.98 78.06% -0.237 0.4587 -0.858
C 6932 26.23% 55.8 79.88% 0.128 0.6145 -0.562
D 5975 27.5% 54.9 78.46% -0.179 0.5337 -0.713
E 2414 28.18% 55.04 78.5% 0.052 0.6138 -1.116
F 3870 24.43% 54.03 79.28% -0.425 0.2447 -1.002
G 3620 23.76% 55.72 81.05% -0.086 0.5154 -0.68
H 4354 24.4% 59.2 78.89% -0.177 0.4866 -0.534
East 7793 48.37% 58.8 51.88% 0.679 1.282 -0.895
Northeast 4471 47.79% 58.92 49.07% -0.496 0.1711 -1.494
Northwest 2388 37.42% 61.38 62.44% -0.245 0.281 -1.151
Southeast 877 40.14% 57.38 59.41% -0.105 0.6282 -1.322
Southwest 658 28.57% 51.17 56.53% -1.126 -0.2323 -1.694
West 4877 36.44% 59.81 62.46% -1.162 -0.3928 -0.807

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 303 0.0% 47.73 78.55% -0.526 1.6492 -0.352
Not Using Events or Tokens 8596 48.34% 51.87 54.47% 0.161 0.3962 -0.306
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1127 15.63% 66.32 84.47% 0.167 -1.0159 -0.081
Start of Game Growth 1471 15.02% 65.17 84.77% 0.477 0.0455 0.572
Unlimited Undo 2341 22.5% 56.27 82.49% -0.896 -1.3781 0.268
Using Tokens but Not Events 3676 14.61% 54.9 88.87% 0.561 0.7118 0.476

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4537 22.67 0.0%
II 21666 31.11 85.25%
III 5800 34.68 84.0%
IV 2066 37.94 19.46%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.838 Win Model: 0.571
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 21621 38.07% 53.32 64.89%
2 6627 31.12% 52.27 74.95%
3 2457 23.72% 56.57 80.55%
4 3167 21.93% 66.7 83.08%
5 51 33.33% 70.49 64.71%
6 146 16.55% 63.84 71.92%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 261
Lose: Adversary condition 3548
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 1980
Win: Scenario condition 23721
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4180
Lose: Spirit destroyed 356

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)