Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 232 22.41% 48.31 -2.23 74.57% -1.147 -0.8637
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 170 24.12% 56.15 2.113 84.71% -0.313 0.0981
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 111 36.94% 61.92 4.972 81.08% -0.481 0.3961
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 96 54.17% 55.14 2.092 63.54% -1.414 -0.1685
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 28 78.57% 55.36 2.565 50.0% -1.533 -0.0314
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 94.87% 35.1 -6.098 7.69% -3.046 -1.0922
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 158 75.95% 47.36 -1.505 22.78% -2.991 -0.9479
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1315 20.66% 46.09 -2.708 80.61% -0.852 -0.8101
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 951 30.14% 47.09 -1.886 73.5% -1.123 -1.142
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 924 28.98% 59.26 3.764 81.49% -0.743 -0.7297
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1009 33.13% 66.74 7.304 81.67% -0.494 -0.2059
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 577 35.2% 71.28 9.625 80.94% -0.421 -0.0541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 484 55.28% 69.04 9.364 65.08% -1.0 -0.173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3186 81.3% 60.71 5.095 40.02% -1.722 -0.4844
The Kingdom of England 0 1 910 21.31% 45.96 -2.523 80.55% -0.725 -0.3934
The Kingdom of England 1 3 600 26.25% 53.49 1.26 77.17% -0.964 -0.4503
The Kingdom of England 2 4 530 41.83% 49.61 -0.697 61.13% -1.637 -0.6693
The Kingdom of England 3 6 515 52.78% 48.93 -0.874 45.44% -2.564 -0.9851
The Kingdom of England 4 7 393 51.92% 52.69 1.01 44.02% -2.465 -0.9668
The Kingdom of England 5 9 155 76.16% 43.68 -3.016 18.71% -3.55 -1.4765
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2287 68.4% 48.72 -1.574 15.35% -3.819 -1.5709
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 738 26.22% 49.64 -0.853 80.22% -0.833 -0.3187
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 353 38.81% 50.55 -0.333 72.8% -1.137 -0.2377
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 710 25.07% 56.0 1.484 63.38% -2.202 -0.0589
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 635 45.58% 50.98 -0.309 41.57% -2.908 -0.7114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 457 36.4% 58.4 3.066 48.8% -2.712 -0.5535
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 219 49.32% 61.58 5.267 47.95% -2.314 -0.497
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2280 37.45% 61.01 4.295 38.46% -3.106 -1.0092
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 722 21.93% 45.93 -2.631 82.13% -0.607 -0.522
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 574 22.63% 51.99 0.021 86.24% -0.255 -0.2219
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 492 31.22% 52.1 0.347 77.85% -0.787 -0.5525
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 543 39.48% 62.34 5.48 82.5% -0.407 -0.1201
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 361 54.29% 59.91 4.551 72.3% -0.807 -0.0234
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 207 62.8% 54.92 2.945 54.11% -1.362 -0.1959
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 865 45.02% 69.31 6.845 74.1% -1.415 -0.2909
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 223 17.04% 50.2 -1.144 91.48% 0.286 0.1847
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 144 22.92% 57.01 1.664 85.42% -0.488 0.2908
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 100 16.0% 66.73 5.181 91.0% -0.195 0.2245
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 73 53.42% 57.95 3.834 61.64% -1.331 -0.0774
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 40 42.5% 61.77 5.171 60.0% -1.859 -0.7426
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 24 58.33% 55.75 2.265 37.5% -2.131 -0.1323
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 827 27.97% 94.09 19.232 80.77% -1.074 0.8047

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14215 31.12 50.3 -1.463 74.24% -0.012 0.1607
1 Thematic 7478 55.02 56.3 1.632 43.59% -0.299 0.0633
2 Archipelago 25 12.0 108.76 20.151 92.0% 0.464 0.6912
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3865 27.9 52.09 -0.54 81.63% 0.266 0.3171
2 Coastline 410 35.77 50.9 -1.086 76.34% 0.042 0.0494
2 Fragment 96 26.04 50.01 -1.148 76.04% -0.165 0.0914
2 Heart 72 51.39 42.64 -4.355 56.94% -0.529 -0.3866
2 Opposite Shores 1035 22.24 48.86 -1.587 82.61% 0.36 0.4509
2 Thematic 2141 39.38 52.62 -1.321 61.89% -0.465 -0.5061
2 Top to Top 111 32.43 55.47 1.034 78.38% 0.443 0.4122
3 Archipelago 8 0.0 96.63 16.149 100.0% 0.168 1.25
3 Coastline 8 37.5 54.13 -0.718 75.0% -0.084 -0.2825
3 Other 60 35.59 51.48 -0.903 75.0% -0.113 0.0612
3 Round (Default) 1983 23.62 54.13 -0.045 82.2% 0.164 0.0906
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 51.5 -2.749 100.0% 0.124 -0.1526
3 Thematic 285 38.6 63.43 1.779 65.61% 0.021 -0.3809
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 56.5 -3.237 100.0% 0.016 0.524
4 Coastline 1 0.0 26.0 -16.52 0.0% -0.932 -0.8818
4 Leaf 10 10.0 47.1 -4.191 80.0% -0.67 -0.698
4 Other 66 10.77 54.03 -1.372 87.88% -0.226 -0.3402
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 4.927 100.0% 0.122 0.1756
4 Thematic 1219 26.87 68.71 3.0 76.87% 0.079 -1.0058
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1930 22.72 62.46 2.806 83.21% 0.274 0.1875
5 Archipelago 1 0.0 65.0 1.948 100.0% 0.009 0.8856
5 Other 9 22.22 71.0 5.737 77.78% -0.266 -0.8691
5 Thematic 6 50.0 91.0 14.138 100.0% 1.252 -1.51

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 707 48.01 -3.898 48.09% -1.646 0.4268
Aid From Lesser Spirits 656 49.87 -2.881 51.68% -1.533 0.385
All Things Weaken 247 46.04 -5.095 48.18% -1.728 0.4422
Back Against the Wall 615 48.21 -3.788 46.83% -1.707 0.384
Disintegrating Ecosystem 664 41.05 -7.227 37.8% -2.197 0.0276
Downward Spiral 3203 46.28 -4.963 33.16% -1.981 0.0415
Erosion of Will 712 45.52 -4.941 44.8% -1.838 0.3707
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 116 54.58 0.298 75.86% -0.313 0.3734
Memory Fades to Dust 3252 45.61 -5.347 30.9% -2.105 0.1139
Power Corrodes the Spirit 214 43.87 -5.709 43.93% -1.962 0.0621
Promising Farmlands 672 40.09 -7.594 31.99% -2.434 -0.2202
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 82 54.85 -0.629 73.17% -0.654 -0.2446
Thriving Communities 182 39.89 -7.948 30.22% -2.572 -0.4774
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.503 36.11% -2.125 0.1016
Unnatural Proliferation 218 45.33 -4.976 45.87% -1.923 0.1633
Untended Land Crumbles 223 44.03 -5.874 46.64% -1.89 0.2162

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7068 29.84% 51.41 -0.817 77.79% 0.047 -0.7134
B 7536 28.3% 53.15 -0.046 78.94% 0.208 -0.6489
C 7818 27.08% 53.12 0.046 80.03% 0.281 -0.8081
D 7049 27.87% 53.48 0.136 79.1% 0.245 -0.6049
E 1524 28.91% 53.98 -0.249 78.28% 0.183 -0.7823
F 2823 24.14% 53.52 -0.546 79.21% 0.01 -0.9041
G 2710 24.37% 55.39 0.234 80.26% 0.191 -0.7141
H 3229 22.56% 60.28 1.865 80.71% 0.139 -0.7748
East 5410 44.08% 60.21 2.301 59.02% 0.256 -0.3935
Northeast 4660 49.35% 57.97 1.176 49.14% 0.121 -0.4774
Northwest 2591 39.98% 59.83 0.884 62.06% 0.094 -0.5757
Southeast 539 42.12% 55.81 0.054 61.04% 0.292 -0.4139
Southwest 359 30.08% 48.57 -5.047 57.94% -1.103 -1.3758
West 3921 35.23% 60.57 1.316 66.08% 0.026 -0.3727

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 397 0.0% 50.3 -2.834 79.6% -1.53 0.526
Not Using Events or Tokens 9989 48.56% 51.58 -0.896 54.1% -0.238 -0.0221
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1250 12.21% 67.74 5.381 86.8% 1.03 0.3427
Start of Game Growth 1511 13.04% 65.93 3.987 86.9% 0.362 -0.1086
Unlimited Undo 3085 21.26% 55.22 0.428 82.07% 0.115 -0.3048
Using Tokens but Not Events 3660 15.4% 52.61 -0.696 89.54% 0.644 0.5919

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4759 22.35 0.0%
II 22270 30.84 84.61%
III 5960 34.35 83.61%
IV 2050 37.52 17.71%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.601 Win Model: -0.081
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 21747 39.42% 52.45 63.68%
2 7716 30.88% 51.66 75.79%
3 2343 25.75% 55.28 80.03%
4 3233 24.0% 64.63 80.95%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 325
Lose: Adversary condition 3715
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 1982
Win: Scenario condition 24179
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4450
Lose: Spirit destroyed 378

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)