Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 20 25.0% 27.75 -4.184 45.0% -0.23 0.0757
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 41 26.83% 26.39 -7.104 31.71% -0.635 -0.7122
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 10 20.0% 61.8 13.979 90.0% 0.411 0.5577
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 18 27.78% 45.5 -0.166 55.56% -0.699 -0.6407
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 11 45.45% 45.73 -11.922 54.55% -0.778 -0.3977
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 5 60.0% 52.0 -14.986 60.0% -0.251 0.605
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 59 28.81% 18.53 -14.764 13.56% -2.67 -0.9712
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 424 26.89% 44.63 -2.8 64.62% -0.475 -0.0779
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 354 25.71% 52.15 2.924 74.58% 0.027 0.3571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 262 40.08% 54.22 9.812 68.32% 0.302 0.8235
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 226 43.81% 56.95 7.974 63.27% -0.18 0.8413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 62 62.9% 50.26 -25.809 40.32% -0.304 1.1362
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 57 78.95% 41.25 -19.732 12.28% -0.384 1.3158
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 325 59.88% 41.42 -12.877 18.15% -1.386 0.385
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1647 19.76% 42.72 -4.083 74.2% -0.79 -0.5855
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1268 27.19% 44.15 -1.317 68.3% -0.431 -0.3941
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1827 20.8% 50.84 -2.786 68.04% -0.575 -0.5514
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1607 26.68% 59.82 3.359 73.12% -0.783 -0.5619
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 856 27.22% 64.18 6.844 72.66% 0.09 0.3961
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 582 49.83% 63.8 -2.961 57.9% -1.452 -1.0459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3389 72.3% 53.31 -8.549 34.43% -2.182 -0.9103
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1162 21.93% 42.36 -5.367 72.72% -0.944 -0.6045
The Kingdom of England 1 3 932 24.11% 51.79 7.047 72.96% 0.371 0.6474
The Kingdom of England 2 4 766 40.58% 43.63 -1.577 51.44% -0.982 -0.4501
The Kingdom of England 3 6 659 44.55% 44.98 -14.112 40.67% -2.323 -1.2539
The Kingdom of England 4 7 483 41.37% 52.78 -3.879 46.17% -1.364 -0.3761
The Kingdom of England 5 9 258 66.93% 38.59 -8.002 14.34% -1.079 0.5355
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3101 59.63% 43.73 -4.913 15.12% -2.476 -0.5429
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 748 26.27% 48.13 -1.556 75.94% -0.137 0.2206
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 474 40.51% 46.07 -4.235 63.29% -1.113 -0.3957
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1264 23.26% 53.1 -1.966 60.28% -1.297 -0.1385
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 613 40.78% 50.68 4.743 42.58% -0.513 0.7668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 481 44.28% 55.94 9.858 42.83% -0.506 0.8077
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 412 49.51% 47.91 11.137 29.37% -0.166 1.1203
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4323 34.68% 53.81 5.732 36.04% -0.848 0.5362
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 211 12.8% 37.43 -2.893 61.14% -0.21 0.0584
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 138 34.78% 39.66 1.826 47.83% -0.28 0.1757
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 120 35.0% 34.86 -9.769 38.33% -2.015 -1.6181
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 175 46.86% 48.32 0.881 36.57% -1.315 -1.3256
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 112 43.75% 52.75 -2.24 45.54% -1.113 -0.5675
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 240 53.33% 51.74 5.721 40.42% -0.363 0.1464
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 690 58.35% 40.52 -3.246 13.91% -1.536 -0.4857
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 931 22.61% 40.77 -3.848 71.86% -0.699 -0.4095
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 712 23.62% 47.23 -1.675 76.97% -0.565 -0.5166
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 731 31.18% 47.64 -7.515 70.31% -1.277 -1.0475
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1097 21.15% 37.04 -7.912 47.86% -1.586 -1.2998
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 454 44.93% 56.56 3.268 68.94% -0.292 0.5093
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 233 48.93% 49.56 -1.063 52.36% -0.324 0.7593
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1151 44.16% 57.82 -5.879 59.25% -1.368 -0.4336
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 536 18.66% 43.5 -0.602 76.12% -0.042 0.1393
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 353 25.78% 51.03 -7.198 70.82% -1.559 -0.7253
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 283 23.67% 59.51 8.227 78.09% 0.471 0.691
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 156 43.59% 51.94 -12.711 55.77% -1.678 -0.5948
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 81 38.27% 62.4 14.512 60.49% 0.013 0.996
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 95 47.37% 43.85 -25.294 25.26% -0.866 0.656
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2880 31.2% 65.48 14.61 49.31% -0.154 1.4395

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 23774 26.88 48.18 70.46% 0.783 1.0707 1.023
1 Thematic 8521 49.63 52.58 44.45% 0.445 1.1022 0.767
2 Archipelago 198 39.39 45.2 25.25% 0.462 1.1657 -0.157
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4666 24.82 49.23 78.29% 0.427 0.5361 0.917
2 Coastline 672 25.34 41.81 61.9% -0.252 -0.3433 0.025
2 Fragment 84 27.38 46.79 71.43% -0.094 -0.353 -0.436
2 Heart 114 42.11 48.18 29.82% 0.029 -0.2972 -1.337
2 Opposite Shores 2105 28.95 40.88 53.97% 0.437 0.5141 0.235
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 2064 41.79 49.54 51.02% -0.101 0.4295 0.257
2 Top to Top 160 31.21 51.26 68.75% -0.433 -0.5064 0.985
3 Archipelago 75 60.0 57.81 29.33% 0.265
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.819
3 Other 69 32.35 48.84 72.46% 0.073 -0.5521 0.985
3 Round (Default) 2810 21.18 51.4 77.33% -0.118 -0.2092 0.287
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% 0.463
3 Thematic 370 34.59 54.6 52.97% -1.047 -1.0096 0.359
4 Archipelago 22 45.45 68.09 72.73% 0.399 0.0189 0.935
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% -0.015
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.479
4 Other 73 24.66 57.62 82.19% 0.612 -0.1063 -0.238
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1889 19.17 56.13 63.95% -0.267 -0.1689 0.522
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2472 19.88 56.58 75.77% -0.326 -0.4065 -0.237
5 Archipelago 14 57.14 59.5 42.86% -0.06 0.1103 -0.016
5 Other 118 27.12 53.24 60.17% -0.183 -0.7726 -0.063
5 Thematic 90 45.56 61.38 44.44% 0.53 0.2175 0.117
6 Archipelago 16 25.0 52.31 56.25% -0.151 -1.0619 0.407
6 Other 41 17.07 40.76 48.78% -0.132 -0.2543 -0.605
6 Star 24 20.83 44.54 58.33% -0.807 -0.6431 -1.574
6 Thematic 905 10.28 24.08 22.54% -0.13 0.2798 -1.579
6 Two Centers (Default) 218 35.94 49.83 58.72% 0.209 0.7471 -1.116
7 Archipelago 3 0.0 51.33 33.33% -0.113 -0.3994 -0.363
7 Other 4 25.0 15.25 0.0% -0.642 -1.1953 -1.402

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 829 47.16 43.43% -0.062 0.1214 -0.945
Aid From Lesser Spirits 725 49.56 47.86% 0.004 -0.0352 -0.739
All Things Weaken 532 46.41 42.48% -0.805 -0.5232 -0.858
Attenuated Essence 97 45.64 35.05% -0.478 -0.4618 -0.624
Back Against the Wall 712 47.01 42.13% -0.374 -0.338 -1.19
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 98 37.13 28.57% -0.149 0.0376 -1.31
Burn Brightest Before the End 87 38.03 25.29% -0.694 -0.6529 -1.905
Disintegrating Ecosystem 798 41.34 36.72% -1.034 -0.7746 -1.349
Downward Spiral 3490 43.88 32.49% -0.572 -0.4549 -0.977
Erosion of Will 870 45.43 40.46% 0.042 0.2819 -1.042
Intensifying Exploitation 104 34.92 25.0% -0.095 0.1405 -1.278
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 241 54.95 70.12% 0.629 -0.0137 -0.026
Memory Fades to Dust 3496 42.7 30.23% -0.832 -0.589 -1.099
Power Corrodes the Spirit 476 46.17 43.28% -0.221 0.0018 -0.923
Promising Farmlands 776 41.21 33.12% -0.9 -0.6607 -1.413
Shattered Fragments of Power 78 37.97 24.36% -0.344 -0.2636 -1.58
Slow Dissolution of Will 85 39.62 34.12% -0.304 0.0387 -1.223
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 153 51.78 66.01% 0.314 -0.3774 -0.058
The Border of Life and Death 28 45.43 53.57% 0.452 -0.0903 -0.595
Thriving Communities 453 40.3 27.37% -0.696 -0.4678 -1.586
Thriving Crops 55 39.69 45.45% 0.426 0.1488 -0.523
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.232
Unnatural Proliferation 509 44.33 35.76% -1.274 -1.085 -1.224
Untended Land Crumbles 515 44.42 42.14% -0.504 -0.2705 -0.874

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9848 27.08% 46.44 68.36% -0.367 0.6096 -1.284
B 9825 26.17% 48.93 71.35% -0.435 0.4442 -1.37
C 10826 24.13% 51.98 74.03% -0.054 0.6466 -1.038
D 9226 25.86% 48.55 69.42% -0.402 0.5177 -1.326
E 4284 26.53% 50.5 69.44% -0.128 0.6384 -1.411
F 5778 23.96% 49.62 72.57% 0.448 1.2881 -1.559
G 5296 23.8% 51.01 74.34% -0.149 0.6643 -1.278
H 6415 22.61% 51.12 69.48% -0.124 0.6914 -1.115
East 10819 41.09% 50.7 46.04% 0.049 0.8049 -1.379
Northeast 6480 38.67% 49.34 42.82% 0.22 0.938 -1.731
Northwest 4035 28.51% 47.49 48.72% 0.108 0.9249 -1.585
Southeast 2137 24.24% 36.61 37.53% -0.766 0.0363 -1.806
Southwest 1825 17.81% 31.43 33.81% -0.872 0.3564 -2.017
West 7278 30.7% 49.27 51.7% -0.836 0.1001 -1.179

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 487 0.0% 37.76 61.4% -0.484 0.2308 -1.042
Not Using Events or Tokens 11889 43.31% 46.56 53.87% -0.446 -0.0704 -0.482
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1473 14.56% 64.15 80.11% 0.973 0.3269 0.033
Start of Game Growth 1911 14.11% 62.44 80.06% -0.446 -0.9774 0.759
Unlimited Undo 3289 21.24% 52.17 74.67% 0.179 0.0942 0.247
Using Tokens but Not Events 6049 13.42% 46.59 74.38% 0.663 0.6565 0.013

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10354 13.54 0.0%
II 30723 30.15 85.05%
III 7815 34.83 83.13%
IV 2732 38.66 20.39%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.144 Win Model: 0.376
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 33535 33.07% 48.59 61.6%
2 9014 29.46% 49.32 71.34%
3 3315 23.22% 52.26 74.21%
4 4438 19.32% 56.7 71.74%
5 151 32.45% 52.26 49.67%
6 1171 14.03% 29.93 31.94%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5513
Lose: Invader deck ran out 351
Lose: Adversary condition 4411
Win: Sacrifice victory 35
Lose: Scenario condition 2572
Win: Scenario condition 33148
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5168
Lose: Spirit destroyed 426

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-26 04:33:17 (Pacific Time)