Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 286 23.08% 48.35 -1.439 74.13% -0.445 0.1065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 250 26.0% 55.32 0.804 79.2% -0.582 0.2955
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 156 37.82% 61.95 8.977 80.77% 0.137 1.2558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 150 46.67% 59.3 4.794 68.0% -0.488 1.0432
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 41 73.17% 54.05 13.53 41.46% 0.079 1.666
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 48 91.67% 38.92 2.967 8.33% -0.41 1.1527
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 209 73.68% 47.99 -0.612 20.1% -1.591 0.6691
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1150 20.28% 46.49 -3.529 80.87% -0.319 -0.0751
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 818 30.34% 47.75 -1.267 73.96% -0.346 -0.4728
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1029 25.56% 61.13 2.198 82.02% -0.405 -0.2894
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 946 28.6% 68.51 7.122 83.4% -0.236 0.1378
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 568 30.11% 73.88 9.122 82.57% 0.04 0.5062
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 439 55.81% 68.35 2.955 60.82% -0.906 0.0795
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2564 80.23% 60.72 6.916 38.73% -0.933 0.6423
The Kingdom of England 0 1 832 21.36% 45.84 -4.962 79.81% -0.889 -0.3725
The Kingdom of England 1 3 524 26.05% 53.27 2.668 76.34% -0.16 0.4492
The Kingdom of England 2 4 455 40.18% 48.98 -3.74 59.78% -0.928 0.1992
The Kingdom of England 3 6 452 48.42% 50.87 -2.925 48.45% -1.299 0.4441
The Kingdom of England 4 7 341 45.72% 57.17 -4.601 52.2% -1.88 -0.3011
The Kingdom of England 5 9 195 76.8% 44.69 3.161 16.92% -1.248 0.4894
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2192 69.31% 48.47 0.37 14.01% -2.107 0.1923
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 605 26.2% 49.26 -1.643 78.84% 0.07 0.9724
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 327 43.12% 49.36 0.772 68.81% -0.07 0.8198
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 676 25.74% 57.56 -0.553 65.24% -1.688 0.714
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 434 43.09% 52.37 -4.387 42.63% -1.675 0.7087
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 353 41.64% 55.82 -2.233 42.78% -1.776 0.6996
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 181 56.91% 63.53 6.295 46.41% -0.346 1.7321
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2152 42.78% 63.22 3.09 38.24% -1.901 0.4661
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 19 10.53% 50.74 -0.972 94.74% 0.774 0.6494
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 22.22% 56.33 1.672 88.89% 0.261 1.1062
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 33.33% 35.67 -8.402 33.33% -1.063 -0.2343
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 71.43% 55.0 -4.904 28.57% -0.904 -0.0339
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9 22.22% 66.67 6.403 66.67% -0.515 0.7202
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 50.0% 91.0 17.082 100.0% 0.463 1.8944
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 56 70.91% 55.66 -0.227 12.5% -2.194 -0.4956
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 622 20.98% 45.68 -2.079 81.35% 0.112 0.2792
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 493 22.15% 51.53 0.108 85.19% 0.224 0.0006
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 482 29.65% 52.58 1.75 78.42% 0.067 0.5197
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 490 34.9% 62.91 7.726 82.45% 0.689 0.999
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 329 48.94% 62.22 3.34 76.29% -0.57 0.3818
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 151 56.29% 56.38 17.173 57.62% 0.322 1.3025
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 810 47.9% 68.09 3.635 70.99% -0.854 0.3376
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 322 17.39% 50.65 1.786 90.68% 0.906 0.8495
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 236 25.85% 57.83 -2.429 81.36% -0.284 0.4902
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 181 18.78% 66.4 1.024 88.4% -0.369 0.3422
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 96 48.96% 59.34 12.448 63.54% 0.434 1.7724
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 55 36.36% 66.16 15.713 63.64% 0.486 1.8709
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 47 63.83% 67.47 0.0 42.55%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1299 44.22% 84.54 9.192 60.51% -0.748 1.2707

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 13260 30.31 50.88 74.83% 0.124 1.1402 0.838
1 Thematic 6532 53.3 56.6 45.28% 0.172 1.3448 0.569
2 Archipelago 63 36.51 90.27 65.08% 0.191 1.1747 1.155
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3224 27.98 52.6 81.11% 0.355 1.1064 0.66
2 Coastline 335 33.13 51.13 71.34% 0.265 0.8671 -0.113
2 Fragment 61 31.15 49.15 72.13% 0.104 0.5513 -0.896
2 Heart 63 23.81 53.22 41.27% 0.051 0.5897 -1.765
2 Opposite Shores 1206 34.39 50.82 68.99% -0.311 0.6808 -0.02
2 Thematic 1601 45.77 53.64 55.59% -0.335 0.3635 0.021
2 Top to Top 95 33.68 58.58 80.0% 1.068 1.5783 1.406
3 Archipelago 16 25.0 83.06 81.25% 0.081 0.2542 0.388
3 Coastline 5 0.0 64.0 100.0% 0.01
3 Other 53 34.62 53.3 77.36% 0.042 0.0062 0.34
3 Round (Default) 1980 21.58 54.92 82.93% -0.939 -0.3447 -0.313
3 Sunrise 3 0.0 63.33 100.0% -0.255
3 Thematic 238 37.39 65.28 63.87% 0.025 -0.0123 0.235
4 Archipelago 8 12.5 63.75 87.5% 0.018 -0.693 -0.275
4 Coastline 2 0.0 37.5 50.0% 0.03 0.1465
4 Leaf 11 27.27 52.91 81.82% 0.012 0.5745 -0.802
4 Other 64 17.19 58.61 85.94% 0.033 -0.2212 -0.691
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1206 23.4 70.04 79.35% 0.56 1.0887 0.335
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1729 22.81 64.03 83.92% -0.303 -0.33 -0.423
5 Archipelago 7 42.86 69.14 71.43% -0.156 -0.7349 -0.488
5 Other 46 30.43 72.65 86.96% 0.08 0.2478 0.44
5 Thematic 26 50.0 78.92 57.69% -0.301 -0.5774 0.361
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 47.0 100.0%
6 Other 12 16.67 76.58 91.67% 0.016 0.825 -0.206
6 Star 1 0.0 88.0 100.0% 0.03
6 Thematic 43 20.93 59.63 55.81% -0.292 -0.5703 -1.172
6 Two Centers (Default) 38 10.81 69.11 94.74% 0.053 -0.0406 -0.096

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 599 47.92 43.74% -0.928 0.9747 -1.433
Aid From Lesser Spirits 548 49.67 48.72% -1.655 0.0752 -1.142
All Things Weaken 350 46.97 43.14% -1.336 0.6492 -1.493
Back Against the Wall 525 47.98 43.81% -1.986 -0.1691 -1.66
Disintegrating Ecosystem 588 42.82 38.44% -1.686 0.3641 -1.722
Downward Spiral 2682 45.79 30.65% -1.14 0.8526 -1.495
Erosion of Will 648 45.88 42.44% -1.882 0.2008 -1.512
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 161 56.18 76.4% -0.399 0.0422 -0.593
Memory Fades to Dust 2681 44.88 28.61% -2.011 0.0728 -1.61
Power Corrodes the Spirit 311 46.34 43.73% -0.9 1.0387 -1.617
Promising Farmlands 567 41.61 33.51% -1.726 0.3194 -1.95
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 106 54.56 70.75% -1.299 -0.8747 -0.28
Thriving Communities 283 42.4 28.98% -1.126 0.8573 -2.035
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.644
Unnatural Proliferation 321 45.5 39.88% -2.047 -0.0828 -1.654
Untended Land Crumbles 336 45.78 44.35% -0.863 1.1298 -1.498

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5869 30.59% 52.81 77.32% -0.04 0.7574 -0.654
B 6112 28.15% 53.85 77.9% -0.1 0.6434 -0.828
C 6395 26.48% 54.62 79.61% -0.077 0.4915 -0.544
D 5612 27.81% 54.83 78.44% -0.225 0.5702 -0.658
E 2222 28.91% 54.89 77.95% 0.252 0.8992 -1.143
F 3643 24.37% 53.98 79.41% 0.256 0.9805 -0.956
G 3415 23.98% 55.61 81.23% 0.46 1.1918 -0.632
H 4114 24.84% 59.42 78.61% -0.216 0.4963 -0.503
East 7391 48.89% 58.63 51.48% -0.518 0.2511 -0.815
Northeast 4207 48.39% 58.76 48.8% -0.326 0.534 -1.375
Northwest 2204 37.87% 61.08 62.43% -0.989 0.0879 -1.075
Southeast 751 41.54% 56.46 59.52% -0.642 0.0646 -1.229
Southwest 549 29.14% 50.5 57.38% -1.258 -0.1327 -1.632
West 4586 36.55% 59.82 62.71% -0.139 0.8146 -0.715

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 289 0.0% 47.94 78.55% -0.902 1.2269 -0.303
Not Using Events or Tokens 8251 48.63% 51.9 53.87% 0.074 0.2486 -0.332
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1059 15.63% 65.78 84.99% 0.205 0.0631 -0.032
Start of Game Growth 1382 15.07% 64.68 85.24% -0.185 -0.9453 0.557
Unlimited Undo 2226 22.09% 56.28 83.24% 0.46 -0.1445 0.404
Using Tokens but Not Events 3340 14.65% 54.95 88.8% 1.078 0.9211 0.419

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4308 22.56 0.0%
II 20202 30.98 84.87%
III 5465 34.53 83.97%
IV 1957 37.77 19.37%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.717 Win Model: 0.596
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 20222 38.76% 53.02 64.08%
2 6275 31.32% 52.13 74.96%
3 2313 23.86% 56.35 80.59%
4 3008 22.05% 66.48 83.11%
5 36 22.22% 73.25 77.78%
6 78 15.58% 62.33 76.92%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 241
Lose: Adversary condition 3348
Win: Sacrifice victory 19
Lose: Scenario condition 1869
Win: Scenario condition 22095
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4017
Lose: Spirit destroyed 343

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)