Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 377 27.06% 45.74 1.378 66.84% -0.118 0.3037
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 305 25.25% 53.52 -8.201 76.72% -0.896 -0.6153
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 213 38.97% 56.92 -1.054 72.77% -0.408 0.285
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 203 44.83% 57.74 -5.458 64.04% -0.963 0.1268
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -13.279 37.74% -0.711 0.6302
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 279 64.75% 43.25 -11.623 18.28% -1.625 0.3522
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1416 19.86% 45.18 -2.651 78.81% -0.321 -0.1288
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1036 28.18% 45.99 -3.382 71.33% -0.543 -0.4576
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1363 23.93% 57.97 1.994 77.48% -0.385 -0.28
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1246 28.72% 63.83 4.841 77.37% -0.324 -0.0667
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 796 27.51% 65.55 1.194 73.99% -0.535 -0.2684
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 500 52.2% 67.24 8.863 60.8% -0.224 0.3361
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3016 75.78% 56.76 -6.794 36.41% -2.111 -0.697
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1030 22.16% 43.88 -2.447 75.53% -0.475 -0.1401
The Kingdom of England 1 3 653 28.62% 52.27 -0.949 73.05% -0.439 -0.1361
The Kingdom of England 2 4 667 40.9% 44.42 -6.191 52.17% -1.733 -1.0137
The Kingdom of England 3 6 563 46.13% 48.23 -1.763 43.87% -1.359 -0.1892
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -17.052 50.12% -1.706 -0.5748
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -18.96 16.13% -0.81 0.6945
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2759 62.82% 45.38 -5.475 14.5% -2.343 -0.4276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 705 26.46% 48.84 4.782 77.45% 0.672 1.1413
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 403 41.44% 48.32 -6.193 66.75% -1.344 -0.6249
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1106 22.78% 54.25 4.909 61.57% -0.523 0.5827
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 513 41.72% 52.46 4.738 43.27% -1.024 0.4281
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 14.901 43.26% 0.041 1.4437
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 356 48.6% 48.71 1.554 30.9% -1.057 -0.1418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3423 37.82% 55.98 3.001 35.44% -0.885 0.49
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 125 12.8% 42.21 8.231 69.6% 0.795 1.0699
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 85 38.82% 42.89 -1.802 54.12% -0.761 -0.2066
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 75 38.67% 38.51 1.251 44.0% -0.1 0.1728
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 102 45.1% 49.89 -0.166 38.24% -1.566 -1.1624
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 77 41.56% 56.1 6.726 50.65% -0.427 0.4504
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 150 57.33% 62.52 4.918 48.0% -1.075 -0.3451
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 488 62.83% 45.81 -0.902 14.34% -1.915 -0.9283
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 767 23.65% 43.43 -0.251 77.05% -0.005 0.2055
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 603 22.43% 49.67 -2.348 81.76% -0.547 -0.4603
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 612 31.86% 50.35 0.792 74.02% -0.293 -0.0824
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 832 24.4% 43.84 -9.62 56.85% -2.321 -1.953
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 399 45.86% 59.75 -2.326 72.68% -1.159 -0.4133
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 203 54.19% 53.65 16.653 56.65% 0.44 1.2293
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1004 44.81% 62.76 0.416 65.14% -0.814 0.2169
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 452 19.25% 45.29 -6.143 79.65% -0.539 -0.4223
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 1.378 75.85% -0.25 0.7179
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 245 21.63% 62.47 8.03 82.04% 0.095 0.3026
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 129 47.29% 55.5 5.301 58.91% -0.434 0.6467
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 1.217 61.04% -1.056 -0.0504
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 66 62.12% 56.24 -9.717 31.82% -2.441 -0.8508
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2138 33.61% 69.84 -2.608 50.98% -0.706 1.0577

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18802 28.61 49.52 72.56% 0.362 0.4188 0.963
1 Thematic 7616 51.69 54.39 44.79% -0.124 0.3402 0.686
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.363 -0.0501 0.111
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4073 25.82 51.33 80.92% 0.856 0.7925 0.99
2 Coastline 494 28.16 47.86 69.23% -0.307 -0.2472 0.309
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.457 0.1025 -0.49
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.757 -0.8296 -1.602
2 Opposite Shores 1844 29.18 41.9 54.56% -0.787 -0.9062 0.151
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1847 43.24 51.38 52.9% 0.173 0.3272 0.28
2 Top to Top 127 33.33 56.98 77.95% 0.958 0.8285 1.426
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.216 -1.029 -0.219
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.609 -0.2607 0.524
3 Other 61 35.0 51.52 75.41% 0.944 0.4566 0.999
3 Round (Default) 2432 21.33 53.27 80.43% 0.324 0.0235 0.25
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.612
3 Thematic 299 34.78 60.19 59.2% 0.036 -0.324 0.585
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.536
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.116
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.399 0.5757 -0.561
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.239
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1583 21.43 62.78 70.88% -0.023 0.0278 0.639
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2054 21.96 61.17 79.8% -0.174 -0.1268 -0.119
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.079 -0.8137 -0.06
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.609 -0.2628 0.157
5 Thematic 55 49.09 73.13 54.55% 0.733 0.9946 0.234
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.691
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.44 0.8479 -0.444
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.331 -1.245 -1.267
6 Thematic 541 9.98 23.85 22.0% -1.414 -1.005 -1.765
6 Two Centers (Default) 80 30.38 56.21 71.25% -0.777 -0.636 -0.525
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.435 -0.485 -0.3

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 730 47.31 42.74% -0.67 -0.5586 -1.173
Aid From Lesser Spirits 648 49.91 47.53% -0.236 -0.3384 -0.97
All Things Weaken 458 46.7 42.36% -0.277 0.0277 -1.092
Attenuated Essence 49 46.31 28.57% -0.302 -0.2544 -1.34
Back Against the Wall 639 46.67 41.78% -0.981 -0.9707 -1.432
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 60 40.77 30.0% -0.741 -0.5923 -1.325
Burn Brightest Before the End 42 41.43 28.57% -0.75 -0.6567 -1.621
Disintegrating Ecosystem 705 42.24 37.3% -0.788 -0.4476 -1.521
Downward Spiral 3166 44.63 32.09% -0.897 -0.7138 -1.222
Erosion of Will 779 45.47 40.44% -0.63 -0.3817 -1.21
Intensifying Exploitation 58 36.48 25.86% -0.349 -0.134 -1.293
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 211 54.84 71.09% -0.352 -0.9566 -0.214
Memory Fades to Dust 3178 43.62 29.89% -0.944 -0.6576 -1.356
Power Corrodes the Spirit 405 46.06 42.47% -0.161 0.0395 -1.152
Promising Farmlands 697 42.0 34.0% 0.17 0.4941 -1.593
Shattered Fragments of Power 38 39.21 26.32% -0.646 -0.5227 -1.647
Slow Dissolution of Will 39 37.92 28.21% -0.115 0.2787 -1.458
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.738 -0.0233 -0.077
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.241 -0.2199 -0.608
Thriving Communities 382 41.69 27.49% -1.253 -0.9346 -1.768
Thriving Crops 24 42.25 50.0% -0.738 -0.8063 -0.69
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.409
Unnatural Proliferation 439 45.19 37.36% -0.967 -0.7777 -1.347
Untended Land Crumbles 437 45.05 43.02% 0.066 0.2904 -1.139

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8151 28.14% 48.6 71.24% -0.78 0.2871 -1.125
B 8021 27.31% 51.45 74.64% -0.475 0.4904 -1.171
C 8615 25.79% 54.02 76.53% -0.519 0.3021 -0.868
D 7382 27.32% 51.93 73.79% -0.788 0.2027 -1.134
E 3305 27.41% 53.55 74.04% 0.102 0.9314 -1.226
F 4812 24.92% 51.22 74.71% -0.741 0.1799 -1.526
G 4395 24.31% 53.38 77.86% -0.231 0.6714 -1.056
H 5450 23.16% 53.35 71.87% -0.605 0.3038 -0.908
East 9283 44.06% 54.06 48.36% -0.32 0.6671 -1.236
Northeast 5506 41.76% 52.71 44.81% -0.643 0.2023 -1.718
Northwest 3257 31.49% 51.53 52.47% -0.694 0.2524 -1.5
Southeast 1482 28.95% 41.95 42.71% -0.435 0.4732 -1.699
Southwest 1209 20.76% 35.87 38.96% -2.045 -0.6247 -1.747
West 6044 33.26% 53.33 55.68% -0.546 0.5368 -1.054

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 366 0.0% 43.39 70.77% -1.659 -0.9656 -0.364
Not Using Events or Tokens 10281 45.27% 49.27 55.34% 0.209 0.6974 -0.351
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1319 15.35% 65.64 82.11% 1.179 0.5636 0.102
Start of Game Growth 1704 14.92% 64.12 82.34% 0.636 0.1807 0.699
Unlimited Undo 2844 21.85% 53.47 77.5% 0.203 0.0979 0.106
Using Tokens but Not Events 4926 14.42% 49.11 77.69% 0.012 0.0711 0.135

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7371 16.52 0.0%
II 25986 30.57 85.13%
III 6780 34.75 83.3%
IV 2430 38.33 20.12%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.114 Win Model: 0.678
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27371 35.54% 50.37 62.68%
2 7891 30.27% 51.0 73.18%
3 2855 23.51% 54.54 77.65%
4 3700 21.14% 62.08 77.19%
5 97 30.93% 59.76 54.64%
6 653 11.98% 28.83 30.93%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2544
Lose: Invader deck ran out 317
Lose: Adversary condition 4023
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2292
Win: Scenario condition 28231
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4735
Lose: Spirit destroyed 396

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-01 04:59:57 (Pacific Time)