Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 375 26.93% 45.88 3.064 67.2% -0.028 0.3553
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -8.888 76.64% -0.946 -0.6486
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 210 38.57% 57.31 0.063 73.33% -0.155 0.5782
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 202 45.05% 58.02 -6.554 64.36% -1.266 -0.1512
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -14.922 37.74% -1.116 0.2012
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 277 64.86% 43.24 -10.914 18.05% -1.959 0.0283
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1409 19.89% 45.25 -1.741 78.92% -0.235 -0.0386
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1032 28.29% 46.01 -1.402 71.32% -0.463 -0.415
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1336 24.27% 58.33 1.828 77.92% -0.359 -0.2947
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1245 28.74% 63.88 7.691 77.43% -0.078 0.1726
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 792 27.4% 65.64 -0.951 74.12% -0.697 -0.4113
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 499 52.3% 67.37 0.296 60.92% -0.603 -0.0504
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2999 75.98% 56.75 -8.328 36.31% -2.421 -0.993
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1023 22.21% 43.94 -3.56 75.66% -0.708 -0.3663
The Kingdom of England 1 3 646 28.62% 52.38 -2.407 73.22% -0.72 -0.4309
The Kingdom of England 2 4 660 41.03% 44.46 -5.784 52.12% -1.622 -0.9087
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -5.622 43.95% -1.67 -0.4672
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -7.427 50.12% -1.306 -0.1924
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -15.731 16.13% -0.938 0.6204
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2743 62.99% 45.43 -7.538 14.4% -3.106 -1.141
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 702 26.29% 48.84 4.483 77.49% 0.718 1.1976
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 402 41.54% 48.35 -5.695 66.92% -1.248 -0.4506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1100 22.82% 54.2 5.701 61.45% -0.452 0.6092
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 508 41.73% 52.52 4.468 43.31% -1.341 0.0662
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 17.244 43.26% 0.06 1.5036
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 350 48.57% 48.13 -1.64 30.57% -1.387 -0.4807
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3348 38.01% 56.04 3.259 35.22% -0.958 0.4265
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 124 12.9% 42.11 10.719 69.35% 1.115 1.3777
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 84 38.1% 43.07 -1.927 54.76% -1.046 -0.5283
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 74 39.19% 38.68 1.268 44.59% -0.125 0.1301
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 90 44.44% 52.74 6.019 42.22% -0.799 -0.3726
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 77 41.56% 56.1 10.35 50.65% -0.055 0.8075
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 140 59.29% 62.01 6.123 47.86% -0.77 0.0085
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 466 62.8% 46.36 1.182 14.16% -1.76 -0.749
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 763 23.64% 43.5 -0.552 77.2% -0.198 -0.0352
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 598 22.11% 49.79 -2.803 82.11% -0.467 -0.3429
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 608 31.9% 50.39 0.771 74.18% -0.343 -0.18
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 827 24.55% 43.9 -6.702 56.95% -1.928 -1.5364
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 394 45.94% 60.03 -0.793 73.1% -0.89 -0.1684
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 17.79 56.44% 0.465 1.3236
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 992 44.95% 62.85 -2.769 65.12% -1.348 -0.3509
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 443 18.96% 45.89 -4.308 80.81% -0.398 -0.3205
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 -2.353 75.85% -0.488 0.4593
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 241 21.99% 62.66 5.955 82.16% 0.033 0.273
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 128 47.66% 55.94 8.061 59.38% -0.256 0.8382
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 0.381 61.04% -0.899 0.09
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 61 62.3% 59.77 -7.772 34.43% -1.636 0.0439
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2117 33.38% 69.89 -4.223 51.06% -0.958 0.8553

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18572 28.62 49.55 72.79% 0.553 0.6903 0.981
1 Thematic 7589 51.69 54.43 44.79% -0.265 0.3228 0.702
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.419 -0.1429 0.107
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4045 25.85 51.38 80.96% 1.162 1.1347 0.979
2 Coastline 486 28.21 48.08 69.55% -0.338 -0.2853 0.319
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.316 0.0198 -0.486
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.648 -0.7641 -1.612
2 Opposite Shores 1838 29.17 41.81 54.52% -0.606 -0.6463 0.154
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1844 43.25 51.37 52.82% 0.108 0.3411 0.293
2 Top to Top 127 33.33 56.98 77.95% 0.974 0.819 1.417
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.397 -0.9513 -0.215
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.558 -0.3425 0.51
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.893 0.3962 1.01
3 Round (Default) 2411 21.39 53.41 80.67% 0.799 0.4552 0.248
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.62
3 Thematic 296 35.14 60.33 59.12% 0.266 -0.1624 0.582
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.547
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.117
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.402 0.6072 -0.567
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.251
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1562 21.52 63.16 71.25% -0.407 -0.4101 0.641
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2030 22.0 61.45 80.05% -0.367 -0.4623 -0.109
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.275 -0.3554 -0.066
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% -0.026 -1.0707 0.15
5 Thematic 53 50.94 73.34 52.83% 1.003 1.1821 0.189
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.595
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.162 0.1337 -0.541
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -0.973 -1.0209 -1.246
6 Thematic 532 9.59 23.71 21.99% -1.523 -0.9196 -1.762
6 Two Centers (Default) 75 29.73 57.96 74.67% -0.475 -0.742 -0.315
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.188 -0.0321 -0.308

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 723 47.42 42.88% -0.19 -0.0599 -1.17
Aid From Lesser Spirits 643 50.02 47.74% -0.037 -0.1637 -0.974
All Things Weaken 453 46.65 42.38% -0.426 -0.1123 -1.114
Attenuated Essence 46 45.65 28.26% -0.487 -0.4197 -1.414
Back Against the Wall 635 46.77 42.05% -0.703 -0.6757 -1.426
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 56 41.04 30.36% -0.732 -0.5779 -1.393
Burn Brightest Before the End 40 41.4 27.5% -0.775 -0.7124 -1.597
Disintegrating Ecosystem 699 42.34 37.34% -0.474 -0.1256 -1.525
Downward Spiral 3155 44.65 32.04% -0.628 -0.4446 -1.229
Erosion of Will 766 45.54 40.73% -0.577 -0.3317 -1.213
Intensifying Exploitation 51 36.27 25.49% -0.421 -0.1796 -1.257
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 54.69 70.95% -0.665 -1.2517 -0.234
Memory Fades to Dust 3167 43.62 29.84% -1.037 -0.7462 -1.364
Power Corrodes the Spirit 402 45.89 42.29% -0.498 -0.3293 -1.186
Promising Farmlands 693 42.02 33.91% 0.067 0.3961 -1.608
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 40.14 28.57% -0.209 -0.0988 -1.515
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 35.62 24.32% -1.115 -0.7266 -1.774
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.201 -0.5397 -0.091
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.22 -0.2715 -0.606
Thriving Communities 379 41.71 27.7% -0.772 -0.4622 -1.757
Thriving Crops 21 44.81 57.14% -0.282 -0.3934 -0.354
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.42
Unnatural Proliferation 435 45.2 37.47% -1.087 -0.9081 -1.363
Untended Land Crumbles 433 45.19 43.42% 0.178 0.4291 -1.124

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8059 28.12% 48.69 71.42% -0.728 0.4017 -1.134
B 7938 27.33% 51.54 74.84% -0.589 0.4456 -1.173
C 8535 25.88% 54.14 76.7% -0.678 0.1976 -0.868
D 7319 27.36% 52.07 74.05% -0.783 0.2674 -1.128
E 3252 27.49% 53.65 74.29% -0.035 0.8564 -1.242
F 4774 24.97% 51.27 74.91% -0.74 0.2478 -1.54
G 4344 24.18% 53.43 78.02% -0.528 0.4218 -1.058
H 5405 23.13% 53.41 72.01% -0.717 0.2634 -0.912
East 9234 44.16% 54.13 48.36% -0.026 0.985 -1.247
Northeast 5468 41.9% 52.82 44.82% -0.607 0.305 -1.73
Northwest 3221 31.62% 51.68 52.56% -0.914 0.0825 -1.512
Southeast 1468 28.88% 42.0 42.78% -0.813 0.1152 -1.706
Southwest 1188 20.37% 35.87 39.14% -1.8 -0.381 -1.765
West 5991 33.3% 53.46 55.77% -0.92 0.2044 -1.069

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 363 0.0% 43.36 70.8% -1.853 -1.198 -0.293
Not Using Events or Tokens 10240 45.36% 49.3 55.28% 0.073 0.5776 -0.351
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1306 15.41% 65.6 82.24% 0.758 0.1515 0.09
Start of Game Growth 1690 15.05% 64.12 82.43% 0.747 0.3289 0.687
Unlimited Undo 2832 21.86% 53.52 77.58% 0.385 0.2603 0.114
Using Tokens but Not Events 4906 14.41% 49.16 77.78% 0.211 0.2933 0.137

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7272 16.66 0.0%
II 25780 30.58 85.22%
III 6722 34.75 83.29%
IV 2405 38.31 20.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.017 Win Model: 0.714
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27111 35.58% 50.4 62.78%
2 7849 30.33% 51.03 73.19%
3 2830 23.58% 54.69 77.84%
4 3655 21.19% 62.4 77.51%
5 95 31.58% 59.6 53.68%
6 639 11.46% 28.78 31.14%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2452
Lose: Invader deck ran out 316
Lose: Adversary condition 3998
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2274
Win: Scenario condition 28021
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4696
Lose: Spirit destroyed 393

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-24 03:43:31 (Pacific Time)