Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 375 26.93% 45.88 3.696 67.2% 0.058 0.4504
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -7.449 76.64% -0.95 -0.7048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 210 38.57% 57.31 1.017 73.33% -0.056 0.7046
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 202 45.05% 58.02 -6.469 64.36% -1.271 -0.1583
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -14.348 37.74% -1.091 0.2603
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 277 64.86% 43.24 -10.729 18.05% -1.923 0.0329
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1406 19.91% 45.31 -0.732 79.02% -0.053 0.1573
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1030 28.15% 46.05 -0.982 71.36% -0.382 -0.3562
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1321 24.32% 58.66 1.508 78.35% -0.408 -0.3648
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1243 28.79% 63.86 6.307 77.39% -0.27 0.0055
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 791 27.43% 65.63 -0.902 74.08% -0.695 -0.4084
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 497 52.52% 67.2 -10.047 60.76% -1.25 -0.6505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2994 76.07% 56.81 -7.838 36.34% -2.471 -1.0716
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1020 21.98% 43.98 -2.899 75.78% -0.657 -0.3261
The Kingdom of England 1 3 645 28.66% 52.37 -0.968 73.18% -0.616 -0.3325
The Kingdom of England 2 4 657 41.07% 44.53 -6.322 52.21% -1.679 -0.9598
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -5.237 43.95% -1.64 -0.4031
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -0.6 50.12% -1.109 0.0368
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -9.885 16.13% -1.343 0.2212
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2742 63.01% 45.41 -7.889 14.37% -3.116 -1.1663
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 701 26.32% 48.82 4.939 77.46% 0.829 1.3324
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 402 41.54% 48.35 -5.634 66.92% -1.328 -0.4912
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1095 22.83% 54.31 6.749 61.55% -0.289 0.7486
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 508 41.73% 52.52 4.149 43.31% -1.389 0.0194
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 17.439 43.26% 0.061 1.4849
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 348 48.28% 48.14 -1.656 30.75% -1.3 -0.4246
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3328 38.09% 55.94 2.702 35.04% -0.96 0.4133
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 124 12.9% 42.11 8.78 69.35% 0.795 1.0547
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 84 38.1% 43.07 -1.645 54.76% -1.112 -0.6176
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 73 38.36% 38.85 2.777 45.21% 0.019 0.3009
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 85 44.71% 51.15 1.782 41.18% -1.059 -0.6243
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 76 42.11% 55.87 7.754 50.0% -0.464 0.4059
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 140 59.29% 62.01 6.301 47.86% -0.748 0.0387
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 459 63.1% 46.81 2.881 14.16% -1.639 -0.6188
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 762 23.54% 43.51 -2.162 77.17% -0.453 -0.2891
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 597 22.15% 49.79 -3.24 82.08% -0.571 -0.425
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 607 31.95% 50.37 0.107 74.14% -0.416 -0.2367
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 823 24.67% 44.12 -6.122 57.23% -1.717 -1.2924
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 393 46.06% 60.01 0.178 73.03% -0.733 -0.0514
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 18.07 56.44% 0.5 1.4017
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 988 44.83% 62.99 -2.293 65.28% -1.27 -0.2773
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 441 18.82% 45.95 -4.816 80.95% -0.562 -0.4509
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 -1.519 75.85% -0.41 0.5543
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 241 21.99% 62.66 4.985 82.16% -0.214 0.0655
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 128 47.66% 55.94 9.369 59.38% -0.117 0.993
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 0.509 61.04% -0.907 0.0892
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 61 62.3% 59.77 -8.092 34.43% -1.618 0.0574
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2116 33.38% 69.93 -3.994 51.09% -0.912 0.899

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18501 28.6 49.58 72.87% 0.531 0.6922 1.003
1 Thematic 7585 51.71 54.44 44.79% -0.216 0.4022 0.734
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.654 -0.2878 0.109
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4033 25.83 51.43 80.98% 1.299 1.2765 0.978
2 Coastline 482 28.24 48.1 69.29% -0.383 -0.3294 0.319
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.344 0.0364 -0.488
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.664 -0.7124 -1.613
2 Opposite Shores 1833 29.14 41.84 54.5% -0.702 -0.7011 0.156
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1843 43.28 51.35 52.79% 0.118 0.3231 0.312
2 Top to Top 127 33.33 56.98 77.95% 1.022 0.8998 1.416
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.48 -1.0009 -0.236
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.548 -0.3967 0.523
3 Other 60 33.9 51.83 75.0% 0.91 0.3899 0.993
3 Round (Default) 2409 21.4 53.4 80.66% 0.868 0.5237 0.222
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.613
3 Thematic 296 35.14 60.33 59.12% 0.29 -0.0109 0.592
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.568
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.107
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.517 0.3947 -0.586
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.279
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1551 21.61 63.41 71.5% -0.323 -0.407 0.645
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2020 22.06 61.45 80.0% -0.261 -0.4294 -0.154
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.292 0.3991 -0.099
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.011 -1.0955 0.101
5 Thematic 53 50.94 73.34 52.83% 1.159 1.1621 0.177
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% -0.648 -1.8035 0.561
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.344 0.2473 -0.597
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.116 -0.8969 -1.241
6 Thematic 525 9.33 23.66 22.1% -1.754 -1.0925 -1.773
6 Two Centers (Default) 75 29.73 57.96 74.67% -0.212 -0.5212 -0.354

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 722 47.35 42.8% -0.273 -0.1393 -1.179
Aid From Lesser Spirits 643 50.02 47.74% 0.046 -0.0768 -0.976
All Things Weaken 452 46.61 42.26% -0.55 -0.2307 -1.116
Attenuated Essence 44 47.11 29.55% -0.279 -0.2468 -1.338
Back Against the Wall 635 46.77 42.05% -0.618 -0.584 -1.428
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 55 40.78 29.09% -0.855 -0.6933 -1.387
Burn Brightest Before the End 39 41.54 28.21% -0.621 -0.5749 -1.545
Disintegrating Ecosystem 698 42.32 37.39% -0.505 -0.146 -1.527
Downward Spiral 3146 44.69 31.98% -0.482 -0.3204 -1.227
Erosion of Will 766 45.54 40.73% -0.765 -0.5454 -1.216
Intensifying Exploitation 50 36.16 26.0% -0.307 -0.0761 -1.256
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 54.69 70.95% -0.704 -1.2679 -0.238
Memory Fades to Dust 3159 43.66 29.82% -1.122 -0.8293 -1.361
Power Corrodes the Spirit 402 45.89 42.29% -0.567 -0.4141 -1.206
Promising Farmlands 691 41.95 33.86% 0.098 0.4 -1.615
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 40.14 28.57% 0.093 0.1784 -1.515
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 35.62 24.32% -1.123 -0.744 -1.778
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.386 -0.3661 -0.093
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.225 -0.2454 -0.597
Thriving Communities 376 41.83 27.93% -0.645 -0.3429 -1.754
Thriving Crops 21 44.81 57.14% -0.278 -0.3746 -0.347
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.423
Unnatural Proliferation 433 45.4 37.64% -1.004 -0.8313 -1.359
Untended Land Crumbles 431 45.22 43.39% 0.086 0.3462 -1.141

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8026 28.13% 48.72 71.46% -0.699 0.4498 -1.111
B 7906 27.28% 51.58 74.91% -0.594 0.4614 -1.151
C 8506 25.87% 54.19 76.75% -0.668 0.2242 -0.843
D 7294 27.38% 52.09 74.03% -0.892 0.1675 -1.107
E 3244 27.48% 53.67 74.29% -0.065 0.8416 -1.218
F 4764 25.02% 51.28 74.92% -0.765 0.2404 -1.517
G 4330 24.23% 53.44 78.04% -0.498 0.4768 -1.04
H 5390 23.1% 53.41 72.02% -0.629 0.3649 -0.898
East 9212 44.24% 54.18 48.39% -0.003 0.9987 -1.236
Northeast 5450 41.99% 52.9 44.88% -0.64 0.2893 -1.718
Northwest 3203 31.71% 51.81 52.7% -0.885 0.1423 -1.5
Southeast 1461 28.88% 42.07 42.92% -0.756 0.1864 -1.698
Southwest 1181 20.32% 35.91 39.29% -1.886 -0.4315 -1.756
West 5971 33.36% 53.54 55.85% -1.03 0.0976 -1.061

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 360 0.0% 43.72 71.39% -1.659 -1.007 -0.251
Not Using Events or Tokens 10208 45.36% 49.35 55.28% 0.162 0.6551 -0.356
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1303 15.44% 65.58 82.27% 0.784 0.1776 0.083
Start of Game Growth 1685 15.08% 64.09 82.43% 0.867 0.4566 0.684
Unlimited Undo 2829 21.87% 53.54 77.62% 0.166 0.0549 0.11
Using Tokens but Not Events 4895 14.4% 49.22 77.88% 0.183 0.2605 0.139

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7232 16.73 0.0%
II 25722 30.59 85.22%
III 6703 34.74 83.26%
IV 2394 38.31 19.92%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.02 Win Model: 0.67
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27036 35.59% 50.43 62.81%
2 7827 30.33% 51.07 73.18%
3 2828 23.59% 54.68 77.83%
4 3634 21.26% 62.51 77.6%
5 95 31.58% 59.6 53.68%
6 631 11.27% 28.83 31.38%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2414
Lose: Invader deck ran out 316
Lose: Adversary condition 3991
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2267
Win: Scenario condition 27949
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4692
Lose: Spirit destroyed 393

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-22 04:13:51 (Pacific Time)