Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 379 27.18% 45.66 -3.225 66.49% -0.846 -0.4629
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 311 25.72% 53.36 2.012 76.53% 0.06 0.3859
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 221 38.91% 55.63 -6.401 71.04% -0.674 0.1078
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 206 44.66% 57.01 -17.114 63.11% -1.615 -0.6733
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -17.38 37.74% -0.817 0.6296
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -6.229 12.96% -0.436 0.9838
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 283 64.54% 43.2 -8.652 18.37% -1.287 0.772
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1437 19.64% 44.99 -2.929 78.5% -0.132 0.0898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1053 28.01% 45.66 -3.698 70.85% -0.647 -0.5404
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1414 23.56% 56.88 0.571 76.03% -0.464 -0.3433
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1264 28.71% 63.43 -0.938 76.9% -0.844 -0.6411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 809 27.44% 64.92 -1.354 73.3% -0.726 -0.4237
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 511 51.66% 67.07 8.151 60.86% -0.282 0.2744
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3060 75.08% 56.21 -6.625 36.08% -1.992 -0.5313
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1051 22.14% 43.66 -0.951 75.07% -0.057 0.2724
The Kingdom of England 1 3 661 28.88% 51.95 0.775 72.62% -0.049 0.2275
The Kingdom of England 2 4 678 40.68% 44.54 -0.963 52.36% -0.608 0.1261
The Kingdom of England 3 6 580 45.28% 47.25 -12.966 42.76% -2.119 -0.9775
The Kingdom of England 4 7 405 42.68% 56.15 4.976 50.12% -0.606 0.6286
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -10.23 15.84% -1.384 0.2859
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2785 62.5% 45.41 -5.263 14.72% -1.909 0.1479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 712 26.34% 48.71 -0.398 77.25% -0.05 0.503
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 407 41.52% 48.19 -6.28 66.58% -0.994 -0.3329
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1134 23.02% 54.35 6.573 61.73% 0.069 1.1045
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 524 41.79% 52.4 1.772 43.51% -0.734 0.6356
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 388 41.49% 56.57 33.848 43.56% 0.153 1.5995
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 376 48.4% 47.6 2.334 29.52% -1.018 0.0489
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3556 37.08% 56.32 8.683 36.28% -0.654 0.7766
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 145 13.79% 39.67 -5.358 63.45% -0.589 -0.3426
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 90 37.78% 42.61 -0.851 54.44% -0.441 0.1824
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 84 35.71% 38.06 -1.873 44.05% -0.704 -0.1955
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 120 41.67% 48.29 -1.497 38.33% -1.424 -0.986
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 85 43.53% 54.46 -2.863 48.24% -1.37 -0.5734
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 168 60.12% 61.7 5.424 47.62% -0.841 -0.3527
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 543 62.92% 44.31 -4.946 14.36% -2.338 -1.3675
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 780 23.64% 43.17 -5.151 76.54% -0.701 -0.5132
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 610 22.66% 49.56 -1.053 81.48% -0.226 -0.2039
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 627 31.73% 50.29 3.166 74.16% 0.195 0.3748
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 851 23.85% 42.95 -9.908 55.7% -2.225 -1.9006
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 404 45.54% 59.11 -7.182 71.78% -1.465 -0.7641
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 205 53.66% 53.93 16.827 57.07% 0.376 1.1947
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1035 45.01% 61.58 -4.865 63.57% -1.152 -0.0707
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 457 19.26% 45.02 -11.92 79.21% -0.995 -0.8513
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 295 27.8% 54.32 2.082 75.59% -0.01 0.8007
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 251 21.91% 61.72 3.07 80.88% -0.096 0.1425
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 131 47.33% 55.24 -2.994 58.78% -0.33 0.7694
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 11.758 61.54% 0.177 1.1582
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 74 55.41% 51.43 -13.398 29.73% -2.265 -0.6416
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2238 33.63% 69.68 10.114 51.21% -0.403 1.3015

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19369 28.47 49.53 72.21% 0.367 0.446 0.929
1 Thematic 7666 51.6 54.23 44.68% -0.424 0.03 0.631
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.225 0.28 0.095
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4166 25.58 51.01 80.56% 0.482 0.4607 0.936
2 Coastline 502 28.11 47.89 69.72% 0.377 0.2799 0.334
2 Fragment 79 27.85 48.37 73.42% 0.536 0.127 -0.476
2 Heart 92 39.13 49.95 31.52% -0.455 -0.6024 -1.578
2 Opposite Shores 1856 29.16 41.98 54.74% 0.409 0.2476 0.127
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1851 43.2 51.33 52.89% 0.206 0.4416 0.222
2 Top to Top 129 32.81 56.78 78.29% 0.345 0.1889 1.317
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% 0.371 -0.9014 -0.258
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.575
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.082 0.7656 1.059
3 Round (Default) 2489 21.58 52.79 79.51% -0.304 -0.5854 0.254
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.642 -0.6149 0.584
3 Thematic 307 34.53 58.83 57.65% -1.413 -1.7454 0.547
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.468
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.18
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.565 0.8807 -0.543
4 Other 70 24.29 58.23 82.86% -0.192
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1621 21.17 61.95 70.08% 0.051 0.4589 0.625
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2080 21.74 60.58 78.99% -0.273 0.0253 -0.146
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.064 -0.1259 -0.045
5 Other 89 33.71 58.89 62.92% 0.298 -0.3071 0.231
5 Thematic 75 49.33 60.35 41.33% 0.58 0.8687 0.236
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.771
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.096 0.4395 -0.361
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.193
6 Thematic 588 11.05 24.33 22.11% -0.295 -0.3033 -1.649
6 Two Centers (Default) 101 34.0 53.36 66.34% -0.955 -1.0442 -0.898
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.686 0.1914 -0.31
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.793

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 742 47.65 43.13% 0.036 0.2311 -1.121
Aid From Lesser Spirits 656 49.88 47.56% -0.309 -0.318 -0.922
All Things Weaken 469 46.23 42.0% -0.152 0.2012 -1.096
Attenuated Essence 58 45.71 29.31% -0.271 -0.1195 -1.12
Back Against the Wall 648 46.63 41.67% -0.843 -0.7499 -1.407
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 71 39.21 26.76% -0.737 -0.5192 -1.433
Burn Brightest Before the End 48 40.08 25.0% -1.48 -1.3021 -1.836
Disintegrating Ecosystem 728 41.99 36.81% -0.965 -0.5768 -1.505
Downward Spiral 3189 44.52 32.11% -0.915 -0.7222 -1.194
Erosion of Will 797 45.65 40.65% -0.806 -0.5044 -1.193
Intensifying Exploitation 66 36.53 24.24% -0.535 -0.2495 -1.458
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 217 55.58 70.97% -0.044 -0.6051 -0.151
Memory Fades to Dust 3204 43.54 29.96% -0.591 -0.2619 -1.331
Power Corrodes the Spirit 415 46.42 42.89% -0.448 -0.1389 -1.125
Promising Farmlands 704 41.99 33.95% -0.602 -0.2414 -1.56
Shattered Fragments of Power 41 37.29 24.39% -1.095 -0.9513 -1.707
Slow Dissolution of Will 46 40.17 30.43% 0.221 0.673 -1.379
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 134 54.47 68.66% 0.565 0.0084 -0.007
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.052 -0.3466 -0.721
Thriving Communities 390 41.38 27.44% -1.176 -0.848 -1.738
Thriving Crops 26 41.12 50.0% -0.749 -0.7926 -0.8
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.382
Unnatural Proliferation 450 45.08 37.11% -1.035 -0.848 -1.307
Untended Land Crumbles 447 44.75 42.51% -0.489 -0.1597 -1.125

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8342 28.05% 48.42 70.86% -0.362 0.5329 -1.103
B 8239 27.39% 51.11 74.0% -0.34 0.4816 -1.16
C 8808 25.71% 53.77 76.08% -0.333 0.3371 -0.832
D 7566 27.13% 51.7 73.45% -0.296 0.532 -1.092
E 3426 27.7% 53.27 73.35% -0.148 0.5448 -1.215
F 4921 24.9% 50.98 74.25% -0.52 0.2587 -1.47
G 4506 24.34% 53.07 77.16% -0.386 0.3783 -1.045
H 5555 23.09% 53.08 71.49% -0.417 0.3407 -0.904
East 9426 43.77% 53.66 48.03% 0.255 1.1015 -1.181
Northeast 5629 41.38% 52.15 44.38% -0.533 0.1419 -1.661
Northwest 3366 31.24% 50.73 51.49% -0.59 0.224 -1.463
Southeast 1559 28.99% 41.36 41.76% -0.449 0.2367 -1.629
Southwest 1282 21.37% 35.4 37.91% -1.467 -0.0903 -1.735
West 6183 33.11% 52.72 54.92% -0.131 0.8262 -0.997

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 374 0.0% 43.35 70.86% -0.848 -0.0094 -0.326
Not Using Events or Tokens 10408 44.99% 49.04 55.34% -0.233 0.2161 -0.355
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1335 15.2% 65.71 82.17% 1.72 1.1527 0.177
Start of Game Growth 1725 14.72% 64.03 82.2% 0.274 -0.246 0.625
Unlimited Undo 2894 21.83% 53.24 77.13% -0.139 -0.1009 0.124
Using Tokens but Not Events 4999 14.33% 48.84 77.28% -0.366 -0.3994 0.116

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7672 16.17 0.0%
II 26503 30.54 85.05%
III 6892 34.77 83.18%
IV 2465 38.39 20.08%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.217 Win Model: 0.333
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27992 35.31% 50.32 62.58%
2 8014 30.07% 50.8 73.1%
3 2920 23.62% 54.01 76.82%
4 3784 21.1% 61.26 76.03%
5 108 34.26% 55.48 49.07%
6 714 13.34% 29.43 31.23%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2846
Lose: Invader deck ran out 320
Lose: Adversary condition 4070
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2325
Win: Scenario condition 28741
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4799
Lose: Spirit destroyed 402

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-16 05:27:44 (Pacific Time)