Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 375 26.93% 45.88 2.957 67.2% 0.059 0.4237
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 304 25.33% 53.49 -12.501 76.64% -1.066 -0.8055
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 211 38.86% 57.13 -1.045 72.99% -0.38 0.3618
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 203 44.83% 57.74 -7.149 64.04% -1.248 -0.1493
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -15.889 37.74% -1.148 0.1659
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 86.54% 44.4 0.0 13.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 278 64.98% 43.4 -8.473 18.35% -1.56 0.4217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1413 19.9% 45.23 -1.48 78.91% -0.109 0.0949
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1033 28.27% 46.02 -3.178 71.35% -0.523 -0.4373
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1353 24.11% 58.22 2.26 77.83% -0.298 -0.215
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1246 28.72% 63.83 5.494 77.37% -0.29 -0.0346
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 794 27.33% 65.65 1.677 74.18% -0.408 -0.1348
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 500 52.2% 67.24 0.511 60.8% -0.504 0.0606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3012 75.88% 56.78 -6.267 36.39% -2.064 -0.6439
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1025 22.17% 43.9 -3.147 75.61% -0.61 -0.2532
The Kingdom of England 1 3 649 28.64% 52.33 -0.534 73.19% -0.395 -0.0778
The Kingdom of England 2 4 664 40.94% 44.51 -6.598 52.26% -1.754 -1.0295
The Kingdom of England 3 6 562 46.03% 48.25 -5.358 43.95% -1.612 -0.4329
The Kingdom of England 4 7 401 42.86% 56.0 -16.986 50.12% -1.656 -0.5223
The Kingdom of England 5 9 217 71.76% 42.51 -18.22 16.13% -0.714 0.7522
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2753 62.93% 45.39 -6.624 14.46% -2.766 -0.8161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 702 26.29% 48.84 5.88 77.49% 0.726 1.1945
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 403 41.44% 48.32 -6.042 66.75% -1.383 -0.6457
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1102 22.78% 54.18 5.397 61.43% -0.47 0.6301
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 511 41.68% 52.57 5.108 43.44% -1.139 0.2926
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 386 41.71% 56.2 6.602 43.26% -0.199 1.1715
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 355 48.45% 48.72 1.39 30.99% -1.119 -0.1905
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3391 37.97% 55.99 3.351 35.33% -0.925 0.4365
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 125 12.8% 42.21 10.49 69.6% 1.132 1.4036
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 84 38.1% 43.07 -1.432 54.76% -1.0 -0.4875
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 74 39.19% 38.68 1.615 44.59% -0.019 0.2532
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 99 44.44% 50.54 1.116 39.39% -1.361 -0.9569
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 77 41.56% 56.1 9.369 50.65% -0.178 0.6686
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 149 57.72% 62.7 5.881 48.32% -1.071 -0.326
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 481 62.71% 45.58 -1.629 13.72% -2.122 -1.1219
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 764 23.74% 43.46 0.477 77.09% 0.137 0.3118
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 602 22.46% 49.76 -1.455 81.89% -0.436 -0.31
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 610 31.96% 50.38 -0.346 74.1% -0.427 -0.2351
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 830 24.46% 43.95 -8.471 56.99% -2.182 -1.7946
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 398 45.98% 59.9 -1.555 72.86% -1.046 -0.3374
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 202 54.46% 53.54 17.361 56.44% 0.445 1.2529
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1002 44.8% 62.73 -0.404 65.07% -0.976 0.0323
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 445 19.1% 45.77 -5.967 80.67% -0.644 -0.5501
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 294 27.55% 54.45 1.83 75.85% -0.205 0.7403
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 245 21.63% 62.47 5.438 82.04% -0.082 0.1469
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 129 47.29% 55.5 4.978 58.91% -0.452 0.6642
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 0.595 61.04% -1.047 -0.0463
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 62 61.29% 58.81 -8.37 33.87% -1.827 -0.1742
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2122 33.54% 69.82 -4.33 50.94% -1.159 0.6383

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18714 28.64 49.51 72.62% 0.436 0.5152 0.966
1 Thematic 7598 51.68 54.43 44.81% -0.191 0.3333 0.694
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.394 -0.0436 0.101
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4059 25.91 51.35 80.91% 0.928 0.8727 0.986
2 Coastline 490 27.97 48.14 69.8% -0.186 -0.1401 0.335
2 Fragment 77 27.27 48.42 72.73% 0.335 0.0107 -0.493
2 Heart 91 39.56 50.49 31.87% -0.807 -0.8746 -1.605
2 Opposite Shores 1842 29.16 41.84 54.51% -0.555 -0.637 0.153
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1846 43.21 51.37 52.87% -0.061 0.1106 0.284
2 Top to Top 127 33.33 56.98 77.95% 0.948 0.7852 1.412
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.159 -0.9161 -0.228
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.607 -0.2554 0.514
3 Other 61 35.0 51.52 75.41% 0.931 0.5148 0.997
3 Round (Default) 2423 21.36 53.4 80.6% 0.508 0.1835 0.252
3 Sunrise 7 0.0 77.43 100.0% 0.596
3 Thematic 299 34.78 60.19 59.2% 0.1 -0.3236 0.587
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.548
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.125
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.415 0.6097 -0.563
4 Other 68 22.06 58.03 82.35% -0.247
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1572 21.51 63.07 71.18% -0.254 -0.2338 0.629
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2048 21.96 61.21 79.83% -0.483 -0.5161 -0.129
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.092 -0.7451 -0.07
5 Other 87 33.33 59.94 64.37% 0.532 -0.4461 0.15
5 Thematic 54 50.0 73.26 53.7% 0.977 1.1776 0.226
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.659
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.348 0.6006 -0.461
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.203 -1.3106 -1.275
6 Thematic 535 9.72 23.95 22.24% -1.42 -0.9381 -1.766
6 Two Centers (Default) 76 29.33 57.63 73.68% -0.868 -0.9241 -0.404
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.287 -0.1596 -0.293

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 726 47.38 42.84% -0.456 -0.3435 -1.17
Aid From Lesser Spirits 645 49.96 47.6% -0.112 -0.2501 -0.97
All Things Weaken 457 46.58 42.23% -0.48 -0.1743 -1.109
Attenuated Essence 49 46.31 28.57% -0.291 -0.227 -1.352
Back Against the Wall 637 46.72 41.92% -0.798 -0.7771 -1.432
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 58 41.36 31.03% -0.665 -0.5342 -1.273
Burn Brightest Before the End 42 41.43 28.57% -0.704 -0.6222 -1.625
Disintegrating Ecosystem 704 42.25 37.22% -0.61 -0.2581 -1.523
Downward Spiral 3164 44.64 32.11% -0.734 -0.5518 -1.225
Erosion of Will 773 45.35 40.49% -0.759 -0.5295 -1.217
Intensifying Exploitation 57 35.91 24.56% -0.411 -0.1956 -1.383
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 211 54.84 71.09% -0.495 -1.1056 -0.22
Memory Fades to Dust 3172 43.62 29.85% -1.019 -0.7357 -1.36
Power Corrodes the Spirit 404 46.14 42.57% -0.097 0.0989 -1.155
Promising Farmlands 695 42.06 33.96% 0.086 0.4202 -1.594
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 39.56 27.78% -0.341 -0.2445 -1.508
Slow Dissolution of Will 38 36.66 26.32% -0.779 -0.382 -1.594
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 131 54.6 68.7% 0.482 -0.248 -0.085
The Border of Life and Death 13 42.85 61.54% 0.284 -0.2351 -0.614
Thriving Communities 382 41.69 27.49% -1.171 -0.8607 -1.773
Thriving Crops 23 44.09 52.17% -0.581 -0.6547 -0.629
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.414
Unnatural Proliferation 436 45.17 37.39% -1.138 -0.9712 -1.365
Untended Land Crumbles 436 45.07 43.12% 0.08 0.3104 -1.138

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8117 28.16% 48.63 71.32% -0.727 0.3538 -1.124
B 7993 27.33% 51.47 74.69% -0.507 0.4669 -1.164
C 8578 25.85% 54.04 76.58% -0.52 0.3046 -0.863
D 7352 27.35% 52.02 73.95% -0.741 0.2578 -1.118
E 3286 27.51% 53.67 74.22% 0.305 1.1399 -1.218
F 4797 24.92% 51.24 74.8% -0.696 0.2369 -1.521
G 4377 24.25% 53.35 77.84% -0.334 0.5698 -1.061
H 5429 23.16% 53.39 71.95% -0.568 0.3552 -0.903
East 9260 44.1% 54.13 48.42% -0.152 0.823 -1.232
Northeast 5487 41.85% 52.82 44.89% -0.574 0.2923 -1.714
Northwest 3238 31.55% 51.68 52.63% -0.938 -0.0047 -1.502
Southeast 1473 28.92% 42.06 42.84% -0.722 0.2014 -1.7
Southwest 1193 20.45% 35.95 39.23% -1.831 -0.4523 -1.744
West 6012 33.25% 53.46 55.81% -0.538 0.5365 -1.052

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 364 0.0% 43.24 70.6% -1.862 -1.1822 -0.407
Not Using Events or Tokens 10266 45.33% 49.27 55.3% 0.079 0.5629 -0.352
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1316 15.38% 65.71 82.22% 0.878 0.2847 0.134
Start of Game Growth 1701 14.95% 64.2 82.42% 0.806 0.3605 0.682
Unlimited Undo 2839 21.85% 53.48 77.53% 0.118 -0.0032 0.113
Using Tokens but Not Events 4918 14.4% 49.15 77.78% 0.088 0.1445 0.141

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7322 16.58 0.0%
II 25902 30.57 85.17%
III 6756 34.75 83.29%
IV 2423 38.33 20.14%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.148 Win Model: 0.677
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27264 35.57% 50.37 62.71%
2 7871 30.31% 51.03 73.19%
3 2846 23.55% 54.65 77.79%
4 3683 21.17% 62.22 77.36%
5 96 31.25% 59.7 54.17%
6 643 11.54% 28.96 31.26%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2497
Lose: Invader deck ran out 317
Lose: Adversary condition 4014
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2286
Win: Scenario condition 28146
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4720
Lose: Spirit destroyed 394

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-27 04:26:29 (Pacific Time)