Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 388 27.32% 45.42 -4.223 65.98% -0.852 -0.4509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 313 25.88% 53.22 1.207 76.36% -0.123 0.1871
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 227 38.77% 54.61 -6.991 69.6% -0.979 -0.1393
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 209 44.98% 57.41 -0.731 63.64% -0.57 0.3882
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 0.0 37.74%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -4.766 12.96% -0.532 0.9741
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 287 63.99% 43.22 -4.36 18.47% -1.384 0.6816
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1487 19.55% 44.19 -6.79 76.93% -0.96 -0.7105
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1070 27.66% 45.55 -2.639 70.75% -0.636 -0.5746
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1487 22.74% 55.91 0.197 74.85% -0.708 -0.5302
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1276 28.59% 63.23 -1.74 76.65% -0.945 -0.7413
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 811 27.37% 64.76 -4.293 73.12% -1.034 -0.6987
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 520 51.54% 66.27 0.144 60.0% -1.325 -0.816
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3099 74.39% 55.81 -7.426 35.91% -2.13 -0.8088
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1056 22.13% 43.6 -2.36 74.91% -0.438 -0.0577
The Kingdom of England 1 3 667 28.92% 51.81 -1.095 72.41% -0.589 -0.2426
The Kingdom of England 2 4 685 40.7% 44.67 4.725 52.55% -0.308 0.4353
The Kingdom of England 3 6 591 44.6% 46.81 -10.823 42.47% -2.0 -0.8482
The Kingdom of England 4 7 414 42.23% 55.19 -6.288 49.28% -1.81 -0.5842
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -3.558 15.84% -0.888 0.7749
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2827 61.74% 44.94 -4.276 14.68% -1.976 0.0687
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 717 26.15% 48.68 2.176 77.13% 0.126 0.6056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 412 41.26% 48.09 -1.651 66.5% -0.303 0.3724
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1148 22.91% 54.31 7.573 61.76% -0.088 0.8622
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 539 41.74% 52.3 2.549 43.78% -0.767 0.5194
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 391 41.18% 56.3 8.271 43.22% -0.841 0.5798
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 376 48.4% 47.6 -2.024 29.52% -1.484 -0.5682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3696 36.11% 54.84 2.219 35.47% -0.999 0.4552
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 152 13.82% 39.29 -6.147 63.16% -0.91 -0.6077
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 92 39.13% 42.18 -3.048 53.26% -0.682 -0.1767
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 87 35.63% 37.09 -4.287 42.53% -1.075 -0.4718
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 122 41.8% 47.76 0.931 37.7% -0.662 -0.2192
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 -0.605 48.84% -0.772 -0.0211
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 184 59.24% 59.24 2.297 46.2% -0.859 -0.326
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 556 61.8% 43.69 -3.987 14.39% -2.243 -1.179
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 817 22.92% 42.3 -5.522 74.91% -0.643 -0.3765
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 612 22.91% 49.5 -0.176 81.37% -0.096 -0.0426
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 640 31.87% 49.68 -1.42 73.13% -0.68 -0.4835
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 889 22.95% 41.64 -7.858 53.99% -1.894 -1.5407
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 411 45.5% 58.69 -6.241 71.29% -1.334 -0.6886
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 208 52.88% 53.15 -0.198 56.25% -0.596 0.4332
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1049 44.84% 61.21 -3.985 63.2% -1.252 -0.2213
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 463 19.44% 44.96 -5.141 79.05% -0.37 -0.2504
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 302 27.48% 53.7 -5.058 74.83% -0.37 0.5561
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 254 22.05% 61.49 -0.517 80.71% -0.298 0.155
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 132 47.73% 55.0 -5.307 58.33% -0.55 0.4839
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 41.449 61.54% 0.37 1.3015
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 82 50.0% 46.41 -11.173 26.83% -1.907 -0.4018
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2477 32.44% 66.25 3.188 49.25% -0.898 0.8357

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19799 28.44 49.41 71.9% 0.968 1.1687 1.042
1 Thematic 7760 51.12 53.88 44.54% 0.243 0.6903 0.733
2 Archipelago 163 44.17 53.07 28.22% -0.872 -0.2476 -0.01
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4228 25.36 50.63 79.99% 0.551 0.6738 0.985
2 Coastline 562 25.77 42.96 62.46% -0.34 -0.4122 0.047
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.901 0.5305 -0.423
2 Heart 93 39.78 49.84 32.26% 0.088 0.019 -1.448
2 Opposite Shores 1896 28.75 41.46 54.22% 0.448 0.3646 0.182
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1870 42.97 51.0 52.57% -0.628 -0.3925 0.281
2 Top to Top 144 30.77 52.31 71.53% -0.483 -0.5141 1.206
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.116
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.571
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.006 0.5588 1.104
3 Round (Default) 2529 21.63 52.53 79.16% 0.106 -0.1058 0.29
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.546 -0.3067 0.613
3 Thematic 314 34.39 58.78 57.96% -0.243 -0.4936 0.591
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.418
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.148
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.533
4 Other 70 24.29 58.23 82.86% -0.137
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1662 20.77 60.99 69.13% -0.217 -0.0197 0.582
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2132 21.43 60.15 78.56% -0.185 0.1294 -0.175
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% 0.012
5 Other 96 31.25 56.6 61.46% -0.132 -0.5295 0.142
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.385 0.1067 0.251
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.794
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% -0.363
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.26
6 Thematic 626 10.54 23.41 21.41% -0.484 -0.3365 -1.767
6 Two Centers (Default) 107 33.96 52.94 64.49% -1.125 -1.2952 -1.097
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.312
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.785

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 750 47.35 42.93% -0.232 -0.0711 -1.116
Aid From Lesser Spirits 665 49.81 47.67% -0.175 -0.2042 -0.906
All Things Weaken 480 46.74 42.5% -0.171 0.1358 -1.016
Attenuated Essence 61 45.18 29.51% -0.099 0.0189 -0.988
Back Against the Wall 654 46.88 42.05% -0.245 -0.1776 -1.362
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 72 38.88 26.39% -1.175 -0.9899 -1.392
Burn Brightest Before the End 50 38.92 24.0% -1.171 -0.9639 -1.8
Disintegrating Ecosystem 738 41.78 36.72% -0.827 -0.4256 -1.489
Downward Spiral 3213 44.47 32.28% -0.438 -0.3061 -1.148
Erosion of Will 807 45.41 40.52% -0.741 -0.4333 -1.185
Intensifying Exploitation 69 37.07 24.64% -0.298 -0.0542 -1.298
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 220 55.75 71.36% 0.502 0.0127 -0.118
Memory Fades to Dust 3235 43.49 30.11% -0.262 -0.011 -1.284
Power Corrodes the Spirit 423 46.43 43.03% -0.274 -0.0176 -1.093
Promising Farmlands 713 41.96 33.94% -0.729 -0.3954 -1.53
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 37.23 23.26% -1.448 -1.2478 -1.724
Slow Dissolution of Will 51 40.45 31.37% 0.105 0.4761 -1.315
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 138 53.95 68.12% 0.084 -0.5316 -0.057
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.107 -0.5888 -0.679
Thriving Communities 396 41.52 27.78% -0.654 -0.3023 -1.682
Thriving Crops 30 38.33 43.33% -0.971 -1.003 -0.875
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.366
Unnatural Proliferation 455 45.05 36.92% -0.875 -0.7521 -1.287
Untended Land Crumbles 455 44.88 42.64% -0.59 -0.1876 -1.086

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8549 27.79% 48.07 70.31% -0.554 0.3092 -1.214
B 8402 27.24% 50.85 73.6% -0.457 0.3684 -1.254
C 8998 25.56% 53.47 75.65% -0.312 0.3837 -0.927
D 7821 26.79% 50.81 72.16% -0.617 0.1955 -1.233
E 3558 27.34% 52.46 72.03% -0.429 0.2633 -1.329
F 5006 24.82% 50.78 73.91% -0.598 0.1977 -1.57
G 4576 24.2% 52.75 76.68% -0.662 0.1743 -1.159
H 5675 22.88% 52.54 70.82% -0.701 0.0876 -1.012
East 9600 43.15% 53.08 47.66% -0.117 0.7318 -1.277
Northeast 5746 40.66% 51.45 43.98% -0.476 0.309 -1.76
Northwest 3447 30.68% 50.0 50.86% -0.467 0.3748 -1.558
Southeast 1620 28.15% 40.33 40.86% -0.777 0.0585 -1.733
Southwest 1340 20.82% 34.32 36.87% -1.549 -0.2528 -1.842
West 6301 32.68% 52.14 54.44% -0.198 0.7966 -1.089

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 382 0.0% 43.27 70.16% -0.221 0.5655 -0.337
Not Using Events or Tokens 10571 44.57% 48.69 55.12% -0.47 -0.0694 -0.39
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1367 15.05% 65.67 82.0% 1.604 0.961 0.152
Start of Game Growth 1760 14.67% 63.98 81.99% 0.27 -0.2644 0.663
Unlimited Undo 2937 21.78% 53.17 76.92% 0.021 0.0693 0.141
Using Tokens but Not Events 5149 14.23% 48.02 75.84% -0.504 -0.5368 0.077

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8074 15.83 0.0%
II 26907 30.49 84.97%
III 6990 34.78 83.16%
IV 2494 38.41 20.17%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.051 Win Model: 0.524
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 28642 34.98% 49.94 62.15%
2 8105 29.93% 50.54 72.81%
3 2973 23.6% 53.69 76.42%
4 3871 20.79% 60.69 75.46%
5 116 32.76% 53.9 49.14%
6 758 12.96% 28.54 30.21%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3291
Lose: Invader deck ran out 326
Lose: Adversary condition 4086
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2348
Win: Scenario condition 29151
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4832
Lose: Spirit destroyed 402

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-29 05:26:49 (Pacific Time)