Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 391 27.37% 45.6 4.569 66.24% 0.341 0.6863
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 322 26.09% 53.23 4.333 76.09% 0.084 0.4046
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 231 38.96% 54.35 -3.865 69.26% -0.729 0.1246
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 210 44.76% 57.5 23.06 63.81% 0.668 1.6215
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 67.27% 49.78 -6.044 36.36% -0.298 1.0386
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -6.976 12.96% -0.827 0.7523
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 290 63.67% 43.17 0.359 18.28% -1.186 0.8017
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1509 19.8% 43.88 -6.888 76.41% -1.026 -0.7899
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1090 27.42% 45.13 -4.957 70.0% -0.944 -0.8511
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1566 22.29% 54.88 1.563 73.56% -0.311 -0.2203
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1308 28.89% 62.98 7.033 76.22% -0.256 -0.0649
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 814 27.27% 64.8 2.773 73.22% 0.031 0.3451
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 523 51.63% 66.26 -1.306 60.04% -1.379 -0.8922
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3127 74.11% 55.52 -4.864 35.79% -1.61 -0.2922
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1067 21.99% 43.52 -1.313 74.79% -0.222 0.2476
The Kingdom of England 1 3 676 29.42% 51.79 2.391 72.19% -0.112 0.2084
The Kingdom of England 2 4 695 40.69% 44.45 2.121 52.37% -0.476 0.1578
The Kingdom of England 3 6 595 44.29% 46.64 -10.477 42.35% -1.765 -0.6425
The Kingdom of England 4 7 433 42.46% 55.1 -1.23 48.5% -1.833 -0.7181
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 -0.516 15.84% -0.975 0.5453
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2898 61.32% 44.51 -5.886 14.67% -2.527 -0.5406
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 718 26.26% 48.64 2.451 77.02% 0.024 0.475
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 417 41.01% 47.91 0.033 66.19% -0.141 0.5268
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1163 22.7% 54.19 5.044 61.65% -0.461 0.5057
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 553 41.77% 51.45 -2.039 42.86% -1.426 -0.1526
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 400 41.5% 56.01 0.402 42.5% -1.281 0.0096
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 379 48.28% 47.73 -3.513 29.55% -1.443 -0.566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3752 35.99% 54.81 -1.179 35.58% -1.084 0.3678
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 164 13.41% 39.07 -1.137 62.8% -0.305 -0.0748
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 98 38.78% 41.5 -6.78 52.04% -1.381 -0.9594
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 91 34.07% 36.65 -4.985 41.76% -1.152 -0.7479
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 124 42.74% 48.27 6.545 37.9% -0.272 0.1
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 13.471 48.84% 0.342 0.9784
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 203 56.65% 55.7 -1.079 42.86% -0.714 -0.1768
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 577 61.98% 43.34 -3.214 14.38% -2.221 -1.1466
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 831 22.78% 42.02 -4.566 74.37% -0.469 -0.1698
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 622 22.87% 49.35 3.232 81.03% 0.078 0.1504
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 652 31.74% 49.5 -4.188 72.85% -1.084 -0.9696
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 933 22.4% 40.21 -4.625 52.09% -1.34 -0.998
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 414 45.41% 58.61 -0.671 71.26% -0.858 -0.228
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 208 52.88% 53.15 -9.294 56.25% -0.941 0.1544
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1072 45.0% 60.39 -5.851 61.94% -2.158 -1.1924
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 467 19.27% 44.81 -1.19 78.8% -0.089 0.0096
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 306 27.12% 53.61 -1.901 74.84% -0.339 0.5456
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 256 22.27% 61.12 -1.903 80.08% -0.293 0.2151
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 133 47.37% 54.59 -13.828 57.89% -0.916 0.0358
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 45.002 61.54% 0.448 1.3047
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 87 47.13% 45.91 -4.073 27.59% 0.148 1.5269
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2584 32.22% 65.81 4.009 49.3% -0.931 0.8275

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20238 28.31 49.25 71.59% 0.852 1.2037 1.046
1 Thematic 7850 51.06 53.68 44.37% 0.412 0.9063 0.743
2 Archipelago 176 42.05 49.53 26.7% -1.049 -0.5477 -0.116
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4263 25.27 50.55 79.94% 0.399 0.6731 0.991
2 Coastline 577 25.84 42.55 62.05% -0.538 -0.494 0.054
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.248 0.0064 -0.407
2 Heart 102 43.14 49.02 29.41% -0.26 -0.4007 -1.47
2 Opposite Shores 1919 28.72 41.6 54.4% 0.223 0.2932 0.217
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1887 42.74 50.93 52.52% -0.281 -0.032 0.282
2 Top to Top 147 30.14 52.3 70.75% -0.473 -0.405 1.09
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.081
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.512 -0.0945 0.943
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 0.368 -0.179 1.11
3 Round (Default) 2551 21.72 52.43 78.99% 0.458 0.3371 0.289
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.555 -0.3883 0.58
3 Thematic 317 34.38 58.38 57.41% 0.066 -0.4656 0.584
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.405
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.129
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.53
4 Other 71 23.94 58.04 83.1% 0.242 0.1496 -0.15
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1707 20.28 59.9 67.96% -0.615 -0.6198 0.566
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2195 21.46 59.49 77.68% -0.397 -0.2037 -0.207
5 Archipelago 13 61.54 64.08 46.15% 0.376 0.2232 0.028
5 Other 103 29.13 55.14 61.17% -0.443 -0.8435 -0.004
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.213 -0.3522 0.218
6 Archipelago 12 8.33 59.92 75.0% -0.144 -0.8631 0.792
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% -0.38
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.274
6 Thematic 672 9.97 22.8 20.98% -0.528 -0.4044 -1.734
6 Two Centers (Default) 130 34.88 50.31 60.0% -0.904 -1.0595 -1.159
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.24
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.786

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 767 47.25 42.89% -0.082 0.0587 -1.099
Aid From Lesser Spirits 672 49.83 47.77% -0.015 -0.1094 -0.863
All Things Weaken 487 46.83 42.51% -0.11 0.2051 -0.977
Attenuated Essence 61 45.18 29.51% -0.211 -0.1852 -0.947
Back Against the Wall 666 47.22 42.49% 0.562 0.6069 -1.32
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 75 38.32 25.33% -1.136 -0.9099 -1.38
Burn Brightest Before the End 53 38.74 22.64% -0.913 -0.7238 -1.986
Disintegrating Ecosystem 745 41.78 36.91% -0.598 -0.1876 -1.464
Downward Spiral 3247 44.39 32.21% -0.315 -0.2637 -1.122
Erosion of Will 819 45.32 40.29% -1.171 -0.9069 -1.175
Intensifying Exploitation 74 36.12 24.32% -0.052 0.2591 -1.335
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 224 55.52 70.54% 0.036 -0.4415 -0.129
Memory Fades to Dust 3274 43.42 30.18% -0.015 0.205 -1.252
Power Corrodes the Spirit 432 46.53 43.06% -0.082 0.1049 -1.078
Promising Farmlands 722 41.89 33.8% -1.005 -0.7088 -1.508
Shattered Fragments of Power 46 37.2 21.74% -1.22 -1.0064 -1.709
Slow Dissolution of Will 54 41.96 33.33% 0.512 0.8916 -1.142
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 138 53.95 68.12% -0.183 -0.944 -0.041
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.665
Thriving Communities 408 41.56 27.7% -0.461 -0.1477 -1.666
Thriving Crops 31 38.03 41.94% -0.709 -0.6577 -0.898
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.341
Unnatural Proliferation 460 44.96 36.96% -0.69 -0.5068 -1.281
Untended Land Crumbles 461 44.86 42.52% -0.115 0.247 -1.062

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8733 27.81% 47.81 69.83% -0.891 -0.0401 -1.254
B 8587 27.27% 50.64 73.12% -0.521 0.2996 -1.271
C 9177 25.49% 53.25 75.33% -0.282 0.3978 -0.93
D 8020 26.71% 50.44 71.53% -0.835 -0.008 -1.249
E 3656 27.1% 52.28 71.72% -0.459 0.2278 -1.314
F 5102 24.8% 50.63 73.66% -0.633 0.1694 -1.562
G 4688 24.23% 52.43 76.22% -0.715 0.1404 -1.175
H 5773 22.85% 52.22 70.4% -0.777 -0.0122 -1.047
East 9783 42.8% 52.6 47.25% -0.516 0.3591 -1.301
Northeast 5875 40.07% 50.81 43.52% -0.446 0.399 -1.763
Northwest 3539 29.96% 49.14 50.04% -1.116 -0.2347 -1.574
Southeast 1680 27.26% 39.54 40.24% -0.478 0.3677 -1.722
Southwest 1398 20.17% 33.55 35.98% -1.843 -0.5653 -1.896
West 6423 32.18% 51.54 53.85% -0.111 0.9229 -1.099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 394 0.0% 42.42 68.53% -0.422 0.2999 -0.743
Not Using Events or Tokens 10713 44.54% 48.43 54.85% -0.801 -0.3692 -0.405
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1386 14.86% 65.19 81.24% 0.907 0.2987 0.095
Start of Game Growth 1779 14.57% 63.68 81.45% 0.324 -0.2995 0.682
Unlimited Undo 2972 21.67% 52.98 76.51% 0.348 0.3541 0.132
Using Tokens but Not Events 5252 14.05% 47.53 75.02% -0.213 -0.1965 0.047

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8395 15.54 0.0%
II 27318 30.46 84.93%
III 7076 34.79 83.15%
IV 2536 38.44 20.27%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.14 Win Model: 0.634
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 29191 34.82% 49.75 61.94%
2 8203 29.86% 50.46 72.66%
3 3007 23.57% 53.38 75.99%
4 3970 20.66% 59.99 74.63%
5 124 30.65% 52.82 50.0%
6 830 13.04% 28.09 29.76%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3601
Lose: Invader deck ran out 328
Lose: Adversary condition 4120
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2383
Win: Scenario condition 29570
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4890
Lose: Spirit destroyed 404

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-11 06:22:48 (Pacific Time)