Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 194 23.71% 48.23 -2.222 73.2% -1.18 -0.897
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 144 25.69% 55.95 2.123 84.03% -0.294 0.1008
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 91 39.56% 62.67 5.446 83.52% -0.228 0.633
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 84 52.38% 55.02 2.024 63.1% -1.463 -0.2126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 71.43% 61.1 5.217 61.9% -1.126 0.4086
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 94.87% 35.1 -6.029 7.69% -3.035 -0.9672
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 130 72.31% 47.81 -1.158 23.85% -3.011 -0.9339
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1172 20.79% 46.2 -2.581 80.63% -0.854 -0.8107
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 845 30.97% 46.97 -1.868 73.14% -1.143 -1.1691
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 766 30.66% 58.42 3.585 80.55% -0.748 -0.7484
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 879 34.63% 65.39 6.705 80.77% -0.57 -0.2772
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 469 38.23% 68.27 8.545 78.46% -0.564 -0.1938
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 420 59.19% 65.81 8.213 62.38% -1.065 -0.2272
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2858 82.49% 60.04 5.052 39.08% -1.723 -0.4746
The Kingdom of England 0 1 809 22.0% 46.1 -2.336 80.47% -0.691 -0.3605
The Kingdom of England 1 3 522 26.73% 54.04 1.621 78.35% -0.855 -0.3656
The Kingdom of England 2 4 459 41.1% 50.77 -0.042 64.05% -1.496 -0.5316
The Kingdom of England 3 6 473 53.46% 48.36 -1.134 43.97% -2.643 -1.0631
The Kingdom of England 4 7 335 51.35% 52.7 0.775 43.58% -2.546 -1.0321
The Kingdom of England 5 9 150 76.03% 43.71 -3.047 18.67% -3.55 -1.4787
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2009 68.6% 48.42 -1.485 14.93% -3.844 -1.587
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 667 26.02% 49.69 -0.74 80.21% -0.814 -0.289
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 330 37.27% 51.43 0.08 74.85% -1.022 -0.1337
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 658 25.23% 55.57 1.402 62.46% -2.225 -0.0977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 619 45.79% 50.72 -0.357 41.03% -2.903 -0.7188
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 446 36.18% 58.36 3.068 48.65% -2.726 -0.5749
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 213 48.36% 61.82 5.486 48.36% -2.26 -0.4343
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2128 38.25% 60.27 4.173 37.17% -3.109 -0.9814
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 634 22.93% 46.0 -2.562 81.86% -0.585 -0.4973
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 536 23.31% 51.83 0.039 85.82% -0.283 -0.2724
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 432 30.23% 52.55 0.491 78.7% -0.789 -0.5694
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 489 39.55% 62.38 5.578 82.41% -0.431 -0.148
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 331 55.59% 59.68 4.423 71.9% -0.823 -0.0522
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 195 63.08% 55.37 3.152 54.87% -1.336 -0.1691
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 770 45.51% 69.29 6.945 74.29% -1.39 -0.2584
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 155 16.13% 51.26 -0.595 91.61% 0.363 0.2409
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 104 23.08% 60.14 2.999 89.42% -0.142 0.5736
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 67 14.93% 65.18 4.809 88.06% -0.41 0.028
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 63 53.97% 58.08 4.057 61.9% -1.221 0.0381
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 30 43.33% 58.0 3.615 53.33% -2.031 -0.8909
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 60.0% 52.75 1.203 35.0% -2.087 -0.0264
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 611 28.03% 92.91 19.234 80.69% -0.988 0.9477

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 12488 31.9 50.36 -1.243 73.69% -0.115 0.244
1 Thematic 6664 55.56 55.13 1.365 42.29% -0.342 0.1621
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3479 28.46 51.98 -0.435 81.06% 0.178 0.3735
2 Coastline 352 34.6 51.32 -0.842 78.98% 0.015 0.1574
2 Fragment 85 24.71 51.01 -0.663 77.65% -0.135 0.2875
2 Heart 69 52.17 42.38 -4.513 55.07% -0.707 -0.4148
2 Opposite Shores 872 20.88 48.75 -1.619 84.4% 0.188 0.4129
2 Thematic 2042 38.89 52.4 -1.164 62.29% -0.352 -0.3072
2 Top to Top 95 34.74 55.84 1.549 76.84% 0.411 0.5457
3 Coastline 7 42.86 52.57 -1.136 71.43% -0.116 -0.1497
3 Other 50 38.78 50.8 -1.107 74.0% -0.141 0.2748
3 Round (Default) 1679 24.94 53.83 -0.126 81.06% 0.052 0.0913
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 38.0 -4.635 100.0% 0.075 -0.1483
3 Thematic 246 39.02 61.44 1.594 63.82% 0.136 -0.221
4 Leaf 9 11.11 47.11 -4.484 77.78% -0.776 -0.7483
4 Other 57 12.5 53.7 -1.457 87.72% -0.243 -0.1295
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 5.223 100.0% 0.115 0.2396
4 Thematic 1033 28.03 67.95 2.985 74.83% 0.313 -0.7737
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1674 23.28 62.51 2.824 84.11% 0.289 0.2718
5 Other 4 0.0 83.25 10.293 100.0% 0.282 0.0634
5 Thematic 5 40.0 88.2 13.172 100.0% 0.91 -1.9174

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 657 47.92 -3.779 47.49% -1.631 0.4388
Aid From Lesser Spirits 614 49.4 -2.951 50.98% -1.553 0.3651
All Things Weaken 200 46.25 -4.849 49.0% -1.691 0.464
Back Against the Wall 562 48.27 -3.626 46.8% -1.669 0.4271
Disintegrating Ecosystem 608 40.67 -7.272 37.01% -2.227 -0.003
Downward Spiral 2868 46.31 -4.65 33.23% -1.948 0.0685
Erosion of Will 654 45.47 -4.764 44.8% -1.797 0.4126
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 100 53.53 -0.168 73.0% -0.454 0.2501
Memory Fades to Dust 2902 45.56 -5.066 30.7% -2.076 0.1388
Power Corrodes the Spirit 178 43.99 -5.731 42.7% -1.968 0.0524
Promising Farmlands 617 39.71 -7.705 30.63% -2.475 -0.262
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 54.63 -0.514 71.88% -0.671 -0.235
Thriving Communities 147 39.68 -7.629 30.61% -2.466 -0.368
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.367 36.11% -2.103 0.1156
Unnatural Proliferation 176 45.65 -4.622 46.02% -1.81 0.2679
Untended Land Crumbles 193 44.19 -5.561 47.15% -1.794 0.305

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 6320 30.3% 51.35 -0.819 77.67% 0.254 -0.8355
B 6700 28.97% 53.08 -0.015 78.97% 0.433 -0.7521
C 6900 27.67% 52.66 -0.062 79.78% 0.504 -0.9106
D 6270 28.31% 53.31 0.166 78.93% 0.476 -0.7008
E 1127 31.79% 53.66 -0.103 76.93% 0.398 -0.8787
F 2302 25.04% 53.55 -0.459 78.67% 0.239 -1.0045
G 2271 25.65% 55.45 0.364 79.79% 0.435 -0.7956
H 2725 23.13% 60.73 2.119 80.7% 0.361 -0.8794
East 4808 43.79% 59.27 2.243 58.55% 0.389 -0.5621
Northeast 4233 49.93% 57.15 1.173 48.12% 0.273 -0.6172
Northwest 2363 40.4% 58.77 0.81 60.81% 0.236 -0.7287
Southeast 450 44.44% 55.64 0.321 58.44% 0.4 -0.6016
Southwest 282 30.85% 47.44 -5.047 54.26% -0.962 -1.5703
West 3479 36.52% 58.59 0.677 63.9% 0.076 -0.6099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 373 0.0% 50.34 -2.713 79.36% -1.558 0.4864
Not Using Events or Tokens 8653 49.6% 50.68 -1.237 52.93% -0.273 -0.0537
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1129 11.34% 68.25 5.892 87.78% 1.199 0.4946
Start of Game Growth 1319 12.66% 65.49 3.728 87.49% 0.286 -0.1685
Unlimited Undo 2845 21.58% 54.9 0.537 82.04% 0.137 -0.2753
Using Tokens but Not Events 3146 16.44% 52.67 -0.482 89.03% 0.654 0.6063

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4397 22.34 0.0%
II 19565 30.75 84.31%
III 5200 34.26 83.13%
IV 1750 37.47 16.8%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.608 Win Model: -0.284
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 19161 40.19% 52.02 62.78%
2 6991 31.16% 51.6 75.51%
3 1987 27.06% 54.79 78.76%
4 2773 24.78% 64.34 80.78%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 294
Lose: Adversary condition 3405
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 1723
Win: Scenario condition 21109
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4041
Lose: Spirit destroyed 336

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)