Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 393 27.23% 45.36 2.202 65.9% 0.047 0.4131
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 323 26.01% 53.06 4.125 75.85% 0.012 0.3275
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 232 38.79% 54.46 -0.467 69.4% -0.515 0.2515
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 211 45.02% 57.57 22.644 63.98% 0.8 1.7572
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 67.27% 49.78 -5.853 36.36% -0.347 0.9591
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 0.0 12.96%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 290 63.67% 43.17 0.753 18.28% -1.205 0.7725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1517 19.76% 43.8 -6.449 76.27% -1.074 -0.8595
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1096 27.36% 45.11 -3.23 69.98% -0.861 -0.7516
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1588 21.98% 54.5 2.201 73.11% -0.184 -0.1085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1323 29.02% 62.65 4.371 75.81% -0.554 -0.3727
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 816 27.21% 64.73 7.12 73.16% 0.234 0.6254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 528 51.33% 65.95 -2.491 59.85% -1.518 -0.9824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3144 74.03% 55.5 -3.588 35.85% -1.684 -0.3976
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1070 21.93% 43.48 -1.752 74.77% -0.192 0.2214
The Kingdom of England 1 3 680 29.25% 51.78 5.235 72.21% 0.119 0.3993
The Kingdom of England 2 4 699 40.6% 44.43 0.559 52.36% -0.662 -0.0824
The Kingdom of England 3 6 598 44.07% 46.41 -8.679 42.14% -1.789 -0.6351
The Kingdom of England 4 7 438 42.2% 55.38 2.518 48.86% -1.395 -0.3048
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 71.82% 42.35 0.0 15.84%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2907 61.17% 44.45 -6.883 14.69% -2.765 -0.783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 719 26.22% 48.57 1.381 76.91% 0.019 0.4829
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 418 41.15% 47.94 3.033 66.27% 0.08 0.735
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1166 22.73% 54.21 6.739 61.66% -0.299 0.6873
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 561 41.35% 51.44 -2.231 42.96% -1.687 -0.3268
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 403 41.19% 56.22 3.271 42.93% -0.953 0.3921
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 379 48.28% 47.73 11.877 29.55% -0.779 0.1996
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3773 35.95% 54.89 -0.024 35.7% -0.881 0.541
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 167 13.17% 38.94 -0.471 62.87% -0.365 -0.2257
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 101 38.61% 41.1 -8.282 51.49% -1.803 -1.3801
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 92 33.7% 36.99 -4.195 42.39% -0.783 -0.3975
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 129 43.41% 48.32 8.1 37.98% -0.429 -0.0409
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 86 44.19% 54.64 15.059 48.84% 0.273 0.9462
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 204 56.86% 55.43 -3.484 42.65% -0.962 -0.327
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 580 62.0% 43.27 -3.901 14.48% -2.275 -1.2226
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 834 22.69% 41.98 -4.233 74.34% -0.467 -0.1646
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 627 22.76% 49.36 4.655 81.02% 0.155 0.223
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 652 31.74% 49.5 -4.718 72.85% -1.257 -1.1346
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 948 22.05% 39.73 -3.595 51.48% -1.154 -0.778
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 416 45.19% 58.32 -3.063 70.91% -1.009 -0.4212
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 210 52.38% 53.02 -8.101 56.19% -0.869 0.2205
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1078 45.02% 60.24 -5.217 61.69% -1.919 -0.9743
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 473 19.24% 44.7 -0.002 78.65% -0.015 0.0491
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 308 27.27% 53.67 0.019 75.0% -0.29 0.5048
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 256 22.27% 61.12 -1.523 80.08% -0.247 0.2601
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 134 47.01% 54.18 -14.619 57.46% -1.2 -0.2467
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 78 39.74% 63.74 0.0 61.54%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 87 47.13% 45.91 -4.401 27.59% 0.044 1.415
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2599 32.27% 65.7 2.102 49.25% -1.163 0.6564

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 20374 28.23 49.21 71.59% 0.718 1.062 1.035
1 Thematic 7878 51.02 53.64 44.41% 0.219 0.7469 0.74
2 Archipelago 176 42.05 49.53 26.7% -0.956 -0.4574 -0.127
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4284 25.29 50.51 79.88% 0.229 0.513 0.987
2 Coastline 586 25.61 42.52 62.29% -0.171 -0.1419 0.053
2 Fragment 80 27.5 47.76 72.5% 0.202 -0.0348 -0.409
2 Heart 105 44.76 49.58 29.52% 0.211 0.0637 -1.318
2 Opposite Shores 1930 28.78 41.57 54.46% -0.053 0.0058 0.214
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1894 42.64 50.82 52.48% -0.224 0.1458 0.275
2 Top to Top 149 30.14 52.35 71.14% -0.601 -0.4775 1.074
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% -0.094
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.373 -0.176 0.962
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.099
3 Round (Default) 2566 21.63 52.43 78.99% 0.546 0.4534 0.287
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% 0.587
3 Thematic 319 34.17 58.66 57.68% 0.533 0.0146 0.599
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.407
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.117
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.531
4 Other 71 23.94 58.04 83.1% 0.352 0.3601 -0.152
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1731 20.12 59.38 67.48% -0.722 -0.5893 0.562
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2218 21.35 59.19 77.28% -0.501 -0.394 -0.247
5 Archipelago 13 61.54 64.08 46.15% 0.33 0.4976 0.025
5 Other 103 29.13 55.14 61.17% -0.92 -1.4348 0.002
5 Thematic 76 50.0 60.43 42.11% 0.198 -0.7843 0.2
6 Archipelago 12 8.33 59.92 75.0% -0.17 -0.8996 0.802
6 Other 32 18.75 47.41 56.25% -0.032 0.603 -0.474
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.251
6 Thematic 692 9.83 22.63 20.81% -0.632 -0.3091 -1.734
6 Two Centers (Default) 135 33.58 51.52 61.48% -0.516 -0.6195 -1.108
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.236
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.788

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 771 47.18 42.93% -0.334 -0.2307 -1.09
Aid From Lesser Spirits 674 49.79 47.63% 0.019 -0.1253 -0.871
All Things Weaken 490 46.75 42.45% -0.208 0.1584 -0.971
Attenuated Essence 63 45.63 30.16% 0.018 0.0163 -0.896
Back Against the Wall 667 47.18 42.43% 0.503 0.5683 -1.319
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 75 38.32 25.33% -0.981 -0.7463 -1.375
Burn Brightest Before the End 54 38.44 22.22% -1.006 -0.8453 -2.008
Disintegrating Ecosystem 747 41.81 36.95% -0.458 -0.0818 -1.454
Downward Spiral 3259 44.45 32.34% 0.031 0.1029 -1.103
Erosion of Will 821 45.25 40.19% -1.26 -1.0035 -1.181
Intensifying Exploitation 75 36.2 25.33% -0.026 0.248 -1.333
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 226 55.41 70.8% 0.035 -0.4521 -0.129
Memory Fades to Dust 3286 43.45 30.28% 0.047 0.2302 -1.238
Power Corrodes the Spirit 432 46.53 43.06% -0.133 0.0802 -1.072
Promising Farmlands 725 41.82 33.79% -0.958 -0.6355 -1.496
Shattered Fragments of Power 47 36.98 21.28% -1.025 -0.8544 -1.729
Slow Dissolution of Will 55 42.02 34.55% 0.337 0.7206 -1.145
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 138 53.95 68.12% -0.663 -1.3396 -0.036
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.662
Thriving Communities 409 41.46 27.63% -0.557 -0.2332 -1.67
Thriving Crops 32 36.84 40.63% -1.076 -1.075 -0.913
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.337
Unnatural Proliferation 462 44.77 36.8% -0.962 -0.7758 -1.298
Untended Land Crumbles 461 44.86 42.52% 0.12 0.4591 -1.057

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8797 27.76% 47.78 69.8% -0.734 0.1287 -1.257
B 8649 27.14% 50.61 73.11% -0.486 0.3357 -1.277
C 9239 25.37% 53.19 75.28% -0.243 0.4547 -0.938
D 8072 26.6% 50.33 71.44% -1.017 -0.1612 -1.259
E 3696 27.05% 52.17 71.56% -0.438 0.2509 -1.339
F 5136 24.77% 50.62 73.6% -0.718 0.0997 -1.569
G 4728 24.15% 52.35 76.08% -0.828 0.0526 -1.185
H 5820 22.88% 52.18 70.41% -0.581 0.1998 -1.051
East 9855 42.61% 52.43 47.16% -0.573 0.2195 -1.315
Northeast 5930 39.86% 50.59 43.39% -0.464 0.4164 -1.766
Northwest 3583 29.62% 48.81 49.73% -0.914 -0.0426 -1.582
Southeast 1712 26.99% 39.25 40.07% -0.394 0.4651 -1.727
Southwest 1427 19.9% 33.34 35.88% -1.577 -0.3674 -1.917
West 6482 31.96% 51.32 53.7% -0.401 0.659 -1.107

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 399 0.0% 42.4 68.42% -0.682 0.0336 -0.751
Not Using Events or Tokens 10761 44.48% 48.4 54.86% -0.716 -0.2415 -0.416
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1399 14.72% 65.14 81.27% 0.731 0.1642 0.089
Start of Game Growth 1795 14.45% 63.6 81.45% 0.275 -0.3892 0.688
Unlimited Undo 2992 21.76% 52.9 76.44% 0.788 0.8109 0.135
Using Tokens but Not Events 5294 13.94% 47.37 74.82% -0.279 -0.2308 0.046

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8489 15.45 0.0%
II 27486 30.45 84.96%
III 7116 34.8 83.18%
IV 2541 38.47 20.27%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.106 Win Model: 0.617
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 29360 34.74% 49.7 61.97%
2 8251 29.84% 50.42 72.65%
3 3024 23.47% 53.42 76.03%
4 4017 20.52% 59.6 74.18%
5 125 30.4% 52.4 49.6%
6 855 12.78% 28.15 29.82%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3697
Lose: Invader deck ran out 328
Lose: Adversary condition 4128
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2388
Win: Scenario condition 29756
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4902
Lose: Spirit destroyed 404

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)