Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 9 33.33% 19.44 -10.502 22.22% -0.848 -0.9599
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 8 12.5% 42.38 -0.278 62.5% -0.478 -0.9368
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 8 25.0% 60.5 7.805 87.5% 0.464 0.2977
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 5 20.0% 61.8 7.402 80.0% 0.067 -0.116
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 8 37.5% 59.38 6.94 75.0% 0.034 0.5913
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 4 75.0% 65.0 7.517 75.0% -0.345 0.5055
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 34 32.35% 24.03 -8.3 17.65% -2.352 -0.5609
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 414 27.05% 44.9 -3.683 65.22% -0.583 -0.1631
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 339 25.96% 52.46 2.594 74.63% 0.126 0.57
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 257 40.08% 54.16 4.614 68.09% -0.382 0.102
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 221 44.8% 56.96 -2.97 63.35% -0.399 0.4789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 61 63.93% 51.08 31.873 40.98% 0.658 2.2539
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 56 80.36% 41.98 -9.168 12.5% -0.13 1.5451
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 321 60.0% 41.68 -12.679 18.38% -1.318 0.7168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1601 19.82% 42.99 -3.77 74.77% -0.318 -0.1276
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1218 26.88% 44.51 0.048 68.97% -0.426 -0.3835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1757 21.29% 51.74 -2.288 69.15% -0.851 -0.7097
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1492 27.54% 60.51 1.166 73.66% -0.576 -0.307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 846 27.42% 64.4 9.977 72.81% -0.256 0.0489
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 563 49.73% 64.79 2.14 58.97% -0.648 -0.3106
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3325 72.79% 53.96 -4.178 34.89% -1.608 -0.3481
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1136 21.63% 42.69 -2.145 73.42% -0.08 0.2996
The Kingdom of England 1 3 838 25.63% 51.01 2.611 71.84% -0.71 -0.1455
The Kingdom of England 2 4 746 40.99% 43.83 1.466 51.61% -0.407 0.2188
The Kingdom of England 3 6 647 44.6% 45.59 -1.229 41.42% -1.194 -0.0686
The Kingdom of England 4 7 472 41.7% 53.19 -6.553 46.61% -1.9 -0.8935
The Kingdom of England 5 9 255 67.32% 38.74 -11.777 14.51% -2.721 -1.1885
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3051 60.02% 43.94 -3.811 15.04% -2.445 -0.6083
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 741 26.25% 48.24 -1.076 76.11% -0.206 0.3473
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 455 40.66% 46.74 -6.146 64.18% -1.011 -0.0692
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1229 23.03% 53.59 3.171 61.03% -0.257 0.9422
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 596 41.11% 50.83 -0.512 42.62% -1.941 -0.6727
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 459 43.79% 55.83 2.986 42.48% -0.654 0.7669
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 396 48.48% 47.03 -7.467 28.54% -1.563 -0.5118
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4153 34.9% 53.94 0.708 35.76% -1.387 0.11
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 195 13.33% 37.87 -11.013 61.54% -0.792 -0.4566
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 130 35.38% 39.29 3.282 46.92% -0.282 0.0657
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 109 34.86% 36.39 -1.828 42.2% 0.112 0.4396
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 157 44.59% 48.27 -0.325 37.58% -1.053 -0.7887
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 106 44.34% 53.69 0.0 46.23%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 228 53.51% 51.63 -18.946 39.91% -0.999 -0.4399
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 652 59.6% 41.14 -7.705 13.8% -2.261 -1.159
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 893 22.42% 41.18 -7.077 72.68% -0.85 -0.6016
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 678 23.63% 47.86 -2.787 78.17% -0.426 -0.177
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 716 30.86% 48.12 -2.641 71.09% -0.511 -0.2072
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1066 21.39% 37.64 -7.041 48.69% -1.705 -1.2727
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 449 44.99% 56.73 -2.263 69.04% -0.925 -0.1775
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 231 49.35% 49.67 -10.586 52.38% -1.564 -0.3823
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1133 44.51% 58.33 -10.162 59.75% -1.912 -0.8664
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 514 19.07% 43.8 -6.47 76.65% -0.772 -0.4941
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 332 26.2% 52.44 -0.766 73.8% -0.291 0.4171
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 272 23.53% 59.72 -5.204 78.31% -1.241 -0.7823
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 149 44.3% 53.66 5.171 57.72% -0.588 0.2341
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 80 38.75% 62.15 0.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 93 48.39% 44.8 -10.155 25.81% -0.131 1.8581
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2821 31.32% 65.29 11.001 49.1% -0.526 1.1657

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 22791 27.18 48.43 70.8% 0.591 0.9438 0.988
1 Thematic 8269 50.36 52.85 44.21% 0.284 0.9269 0.757
2 Archipelago 193 39.38 45.63 24.87% -1.771 -1.2122 -0.228
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4532 24.98 49.71 78.93% 0.361 0.5199 0.933
2 Coastline 636 25.2 42.62 62.89% 0.669 0.4365 0.069
2 Fragment 83 27.71 47.35 72.29% 0.373 0.3543 -0.421
2 Heart 111 43.24 48.97 29.73% 0.152 -0.205 -1.333
2 Opposite Shores 2040 28.85 41.0 53.68% 0.528 0.6116 0.186
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1987 42.2 50.14 51.79% -0.467 0.0843 0.284
2 Top to Top 154 31.79 51.58 70.13% 0.556 0.4716 1.066
3 Archipelago 75 60.0 57.81 29.33% 0.132 -0.7086 0.172
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.831
3 Other 68 32.84 48.82 72.06% -0.718 -1.4858 0.922
3 Round (Default) 2759 21.09 51.75 77.75% 0.156 0.1124 0.238
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% 0.517
3 Thematic 355 33.8 55.11 54.08% 0.127 -0.2292 0.504
4 Archipelago 20 50.0 66.8 70.0% 0.839
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% -0.01
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.522
4 Other 72 25.0 57.65 81.94% -0.3
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1849 19.37 56.87 64.68% -0.249 -0.2394 0.531
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2429 20.1 56.96 76.04% 0.362 0.3321 -0.333
5 Archipelago 13 61.54 64.08 46.15% 0.083
5 Other 116 26.72 53.32 60.34% -0.191 -0.511 -0.111
5 Thematic 84 46.43 59.64 41.67% 0.068 0.053 0.051
6 Archipelago 15 20.0 55.8 60.0% -0.518 -1.7192 0.531
6 Other 38 15.79 41.97 50.0% -0.157 -0.2648 -0.692
6 Star 19 21.05 48.68 57.89% 0.55 1.3184 -1.225
6 Thematic 857 10.04 23.12 21.24% -0.594 -0.6124 -1.65
6 Two Centers (Default) 199 34.85 49.78 58.79% -0.938 -0.6574 -1.145
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.191
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% 0.018 -0.8443 -0.785

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 805 47.3 43.35% 0.217 0.261 -0.985
Aid From Lesser Spirits 706 49.49 47.59% 0.206 0.0618 -0.774
All Things Weaken 520 46.55 42.69% -0.185 0.0157 -0.873
Attenuated Essence 87 47.0 35.63% 0.105 0.1361 -0.658
Back Against the Wall 694 47.0 42.07% -0.142 -0.2 -1.241
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 90 37.32 26.67% -0.516 -0.3426 -1.351
Burn Brightest Before the End 79 38.54 26.58% -0.669 -0.6486 -1.888
Disintegrating Ecosystem 775 41.6 37.03% -0.575 -0.2823 -1.372
Downward Spiral 3421 44.13 32.48% -0.299 -0.2291 -0.999
Erosion of Will 853 45.22 40.33% -0.579 -0.4259 -1.094
Intensifying Exploitation 96 34.8 25.0% -1.188 -1.0584 -1.249
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 234 54.86 70.09% 0.29 -0.1804 -0.073
Memory Fades to Dust 3441 42.93 30.31% -0.267 -0.0517 -1.129
Power Corrodes the Spirit 462 46.35 43.07% -0.605 -0.4967 -0.976
Promising Farmlands 761 41.48 33.25% -0.87 -0.5663 -1.439
Shattered Fragments of Power 64 36.86 21.88% -0.533 -0.4688 -1.49
Slow Dissolution of Will 76 39.63 31.58% -0.864 -0.4154 -1.183
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 145 52.9 66.21% -0.961 -1.5971 -0.034
The Border of Life and Death 26 41.35 50.0% -0.948
Thriving Communities 443 40.32 27.09% -1.439 -1.2124 -1.612
Thriving Crops 47 38.94 42.55% -0.416 -0.6296 -0.683
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.264
Unnatural Proliferation 494 44.65 36.44% -0.543 -0.4923 -1.226
Untended Land Crumbles 495 45.05 42.42% -0.671 -0.4495 -0.909

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9534 27.25% 46.82 68.82% -0.679 0.2452 -1.303
B 9482 26.33% 49.46 71.98% -0.469 0.3727 -1.348
C 10485 24.21% 52.3 74.52% -0.367 0.316 -1.026
D 8923 25.89% 49.01 69.95% -0.646 0.1951 -1.343
E 4114 26.61% 51.0 69.88% -0.59 0.0722 -1.411
F 5543 24.32% 49.75 72.52% -0.89 -0.1214 -1.615
G 5131 23.77% 51.35 74.78% -0.483 0.2578 -1.272
H 6242 22.72% 51.44 69.71% -0.599 0.1118 -1.11
East 10501 41.52% 51.04 46.15% -0.805 0.0278 -1.406
Northeast 6317 38.94% 49.4 42.62% -0.047 0.6568 -1.782
Northwest 3877 28.79% 47.51 48.41% -0.365 0.4677 -1.636
Southeast 2023 24.81% 36.85 37.57% -0.878 -0.0722 -1.841
Southwest 1715 18.13% 31.64 33.94% -1.744 -0.376 -1.96
West 6999 31.06% 49.72 52.05% -0.645 0.1929 -1.18

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 479 0.0% 37.91 61.59% -1.102 -0.4094 -1.041
Not Using Events or Tokens 11584 43.66% 47.0 54.04% -1.03 -0.5437 -0.498
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1449 14.59% 64.29 80.19% 0.117 -0.6151 0.016
Start of Game Growth 1877 14.21% 62.72 80.29% -0.457 -0.8831 0.757
Unlimited Undo 3192 21.18% 52.36 75.16% -0.066 -0.1131 0.204
Using Tokens but Not Events 5872 13.51% 46.64 74.47% 0.746 0.5982 0.029

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9804 14.15 0.0%
II 29752 30.28 85.05%
III 7584 34.84 83.08%
IV 2678 38.62 20.46%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.27 Win Model: 0.739
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 32267 33.52% 48.85 61.69%
2 8716 29.62% 49.82 71.97%
3 3251 23.12% 52.61 74.65%
4 4351 19.54% 57.24 72.24%
5 143 31.47% 51.61 48.95%
6 1090 13.42% 29.02 30.73%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4982
Lose: Invader deck ran out 345
Lose: Adversary condition 4310
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 2518
Win: Scenario condition 32121
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5089
Lose: Spirit destroyed 420

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-27 03:41:13 (Pacific Time)