Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 24 25.0% 29.42 -2.433 50.0% -0.062 0.4246
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 47 25.53% 30.66 -6.455 40.43% -0.581 -0.5613
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 11 27.27% 58.0 1.294 81.82% -0.33 -0.1757
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 21 28.57% 46.14 4.428 52.38% -0.593 -0.4653
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 11 45.45% 45.73 -10.058 54.55% -0.662 -0.1586
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 6 50.0% 43.33 -14.438 50.0% -0.495 0.4782
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 65 27.69% 18.72 -17.015 13.85% -2.815 -0.8978
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 427 26.7% 44.44 -2.829 64.4% -0.399 0.0744
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 362 25.41% 52.19 6.483 74.59% 0.274 0.5652
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 263 39.92% 54.3 14.633 68.44% 0.325 0.8673
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 238 44.54% 56.2 2.906 62.61% -0.655 0.2904
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 62 62.9% 50.26 -27.899 40.32% -0.427 0.8517
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 57 78.95% 41.25 0.0 12.28%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 327 60.12% 41.24 -14.56 18.04% -1.383 0.4146
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1654 19.67% 42.69 -3.612 74.12% -0.915 -0.6921
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1273 27.16% 44.17 -2.294 68.34% -0.986 -1.0197
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1857 20.73% 50.41 -5.258 67.42% -1.06 -1.0472
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1655 26.51% 58.94 -3.208 71.96% -1.676 -1.4339
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 886 26.64% 64.07 5.956 72.69% -0.48 -0.2844
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 584 49.66% 63.58 -6.702 57.71% -1.443 -1.0643
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3413 72.11% 53.11 -9.07 34.34% -2.327 -1.0863
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1178 22.06% 42.23 -3.806 72.41% -0.774 -0.4649
The Kingdom of England 1 3 947 23.73% 51.75 5.309 72.97% 0.15 0.4703
The Kingdom of England 2 4 774 40.28% 43.37 -6.631 51.16% -1.727 -1.2478
The Kingdom of England 3 6 667 44.31% 44.7 -13.46 40.48% -2.558 -1.5181
The Kingdom of England 4 7 484 41.49% 52.67 -17.046 46.07% -0.439 0.5608
The Kingdom of England 5 9 260 66.41% 38.3 -13.736 14.23% -0.781 0.7296
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3121 59.5% 43.68 -6.364 15.16% -2.763 -0.9201
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 748 26.27% 48.13 2.346 75.94% 0.132 0.5089
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 479 40.71% 45.86 -4.271 62.84% -1.43 -0.5521
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1274 23.08% 52.91 0.328 60.05% -1.036 0.1481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 618 40.78% 50.53 1.372 42.39% -1.116 0.0242
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 486 44.65% 55.79 11.622 42.8% -0.054 1.2552
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 413 49.39% 47.8 8.308 29.3% -0.692 0.5807
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4412 34.35% 53.81 5.818 36.22% -1.12 0.2731
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 213 13.62% 37.59 -1.895 61.5% 0.041 0.36
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 150 34.0% 39.35 -3.749 44.67% -1.135 -0.6467
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 127 33.86% 35.43 -1.882 40.16% -0.445 -0.0386
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 184 46.74% 47.4 -1.097 35.87% -1.274 -1.2462
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 116 43.1% 50.93 -19.492 43.97% -2.042 -1.5352
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 258 53.88% 49.31 -3.887 38.37% -1.088 -0.6303
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 697 58.05% 40.29 -5.837 13.77% -1.875 -0.7946
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 946 22.89% 40.65 -1.499 71.88% -0.325 -0.0821
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 717 23.74% 47.13 -4.087 76.85% -0.988 -0.9531
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 734 31.05% 47.62 -5.056 70.3% -0.883 -0.642
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1110 21.35% 36.97 -4.976 47.75% -1.154 -0.9035
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 458 45.2% 56.22 -4.806 68.56% -0.965 -0.2108
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 235 48.94% 49.46 -5.882 52.34% -0.626 0.4721
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1159 44.46% 57.84 2.637 59.28% -0.75 0.1463
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 540 18.89% 43.39 -4.462 75.93% -0.611 -0.3705
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 366 26.23% 50.25 -3.493 69.4% -0.453 0.3014
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 284 23.59% 59.54 9.577 78.17% 0.35 0.7175
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 157 43.31% 52.14 -0.256 56.05% -0.589 0.5808
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 81 38.27% 62.4 0.0 60.49%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 95 47.37% 43.85 -26.736 25.26% -0.842 0.7392
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2893 31.17% 65.53 16.549 49.36% -0.739 0.7767

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 24120 26.79 48.02 70.25% 0.534 1.0607 1.015
1 Thematic 8619 49.27 52.56 44.58% 0.13 0.9845 0.799
2 Archipelago 199 39.7 45.26 25.63% 0.331 1.3864 -0.159
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4722 24.76 49.15 78.21% 0.278 0.556 0.926
2 Coastline 681 25.0 41.61 61.67% -0.51 -0.4075 0.036
2 Fragment 84 27.38 46.79 71.43% -0.125 -0.112 -0.427
2 Heart 114 42.11 48.18 29.82% 0.042 0.1536 -1.335
2 Opposite Shores 2120 28.98 40.94 54.06% 0.804 1.1406 0.236
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 2078 41.7 49.52 51.06% 0.219 0.9087 0.306
2 Top to Top 162 31.45 51.04 68.52% 0.281 0.5227 0.938
3 Archipelago 75 60.0 57.81 29.33% 0.272
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.811
3 Other 69 32.35 48.84 72.46% 0.439 -0.163 0.993
3 Round (Default) 2830 21.2 51.29 77.24% -0.24 -0.234 0.286
3 Sunrise 9 11.11 62.78 77.78% -0.345 -0.4071 0.462
3 Thematic 376 34.57 54.39 52.39% -0.814 -0.7293 0.339
4 Archipelago 22 45.45 68.09 72.73% 0.522 0.673 0.954
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% -0.005
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.478
4 Other 73 24.66 57.62 82.19% 0.216 -0.4032 -0.233
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1915 19.02 55.63 63.39% -0.272 -0.0044 0.536
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2510 19.77 56.28 75.66% -0.129 0.0356 -0.218
5 Archipelago 14 57.14 59.5 42.86% -0.124 -1.0026 -0.015
5 Other 124 30.65 52.29 60.48% 0.583 0.1973 -0.234
5 Thematic 91 45.05 60.7 43.96% 0.248 -0.5496 0.114
6 Archipelago 16 25.0 52.31 56.25% 0.389
6 Other 41 17.07 40.76 48.78% 0.306 0.2751 -0.604
6 Star 29 24.14 46.86 62.07% -0.453 -0.4703 -1.316
6 Thematic 918 10.24 24.37 22.88% 0.05 0.1526 -1.609
6 Two Centers (Default) 220 35.62 49.38 58.18% -0.742 -0.1777 -1.107
7 Archipelago 4 0.0 38.5 25.0% -0.125 -0.1996 -0.479
7 Other 4 25.0 15.25 0.0% -0.098 -0.5326 -1.398

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 841 46.98 43.28% -0.127 0.1222 -0.923
Aid From Lesser Spirits 729 49.52 47.87% -0.351 -0.4694 -0.728
All Things Weaken 536 46.46 42.54% -0.8 -0.463 -0.843
Attenuated Essence 105 44.35 35.24% -0.043 -0.0159 -0.669
Back Against the Wall 716 46.86 41.9% -1.078 -1.0771 -1.188
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 99 36.76 28.28% -0.167 0.0503 -1.307
Burn Brightest Before the End 91 38.02 26.37% -0.525 -0.544 -1.954
Disintegrating Ecosystem 802 41.29 36.66% -0.86 -0.4668 -1.331
Downward Spiral 3502 43.87 32.55% -0.737 -0.6285 -0.966
Erosion of Will 879 45.53 40.5% -0.069 0.283 -1.024
Intensifying Exploitation 112 35.06 25.89% -0.432 -0.1863 -1.255
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 245 54.74 69.8% -0.151 -0.6747 -0.025
Memory Fades to Dust 3510 42.66 30.28% -0.866 -0.6189 -1.09
Power Corrodes the Spirit 482 45.81 42.95% -0.436 -0.214 -0.942
Promising Farmlands 784 40.86 32.91% -1.369 -1.0865 -1.405
Shattered Fragments of Power 80 38.75 26.25% 0.146 0.2233 -1.377
Slow Dissolution of Will 95 39.14 35.79% -0.23 0.1665 -1.261
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 156 51.59 66.03% -0.293 -0.9884 -0.093
The Border of Life and Death 28 45.43 53.57% 0.705 0.1042 -0.606
Thriving Communities 457 40.32 27.57% 0.043 0.3996 -1.563
Thriving Crops 57 39.6 43.86% -0.255 -0.451 -0.603
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.218
Unnatural Proliferation 514 44.31 35.8% -1.174 -1.0123 -1.222
Untended Land Crumbles 523 44.49 42.45% 0.483 0.7147 -0.86

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9974 27.01% 46.32 68.28% 0.023 1.0276 -1.287
B 9952 26.15% 48.78 71.25% -0.133 0.7865 -1.36
C 10955 24.14% 51.85 73.89% -0.11 0.6248 -1.035
D 9350 25.83% 48.34 69.2% -0.359 0.619 -1.33
E 4354 26.45% 50.31 69.34% 0.138 0.9575 -1.412
F 5862 23.99% 49.48 72.47% 0.199 1.0726 -1.559
G 5358 23.77% 50.85 74.19% -0.174 0.6352 -1.274
H 6501 22.61% 50.97 69.36% -0.071 0.7439 -1.111
East 10918 40.9% 50.57 45.93% -0.238 0.6648 -1.403
Northeast 6527 38.56% 49.28 42.81% 0.085 0.8926 -1.748
Northwest 4110 28.18% 47.59 48.95% 0.207 1.107 -1.531
Southeast 2182 24.06% 36.48 37.44% -0.438 0.4121 -1.807
Southwest 1863 17.5% 31.29 33.71% -0.904 0.4718 -2.019
West 7392 30.42% 49.19 51.69% -0.513 0.4419 -1.19

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 492 0.0% 37.75 61.38% -0.398 0.3094 -1.05
Not Using Events or Tokens 11974 43.12% 46.46 53.93% -0.421 -0.0526 -0.483
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1480 14.48% 63.97 79.86% -0.436 -1.0206 0.025
Start of Game Growth 1922 14.04% 62.28 79.86% 0.543 0.0295 0.769
Unlimited Undo 3380 21.29% 51.95 73.96% 0.057 -0.0522 0.232
Using Tokens but Not Events 6129 13.38% 46.64 74.35% 0.592 0.5664 0.059

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10565 13.33 0.0%
II 31064 30.1 85.03%
III 7902 34.83 83.19%
IV 2754 38.67 20.52%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.095 Win Model: 0.261
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 33987 32.9% 48.47 61.51%
2 9104 29.38% 49.27 71.33%
3 3343 23.26% 52.12 74.01%
4 4502 19.2% 56.32 71.43%
5 157 35.03% 51.55 50.32%
6 1192 14.03% 30.13 32.21%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5728
Lose: Invader deck ran out 355
Lose: Adversary condition 4442
Win: Sacrifice victory 35
Lose: Scenario condition 2587
Win: Scenario condition 33518
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5193
Lose: Spirit destroyed 427

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)