Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 379 27.18% 45.66 -3.414 66.49% -0.87 -0.4963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 311 25.72% 53.36 1.743 76.53% 0.034 0.3697
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 221 38.91% 55.63 -6.301 71.04% -0.673 0.0869
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 206 44.66% 57.01 -16.85 63.11% -1.593 -0.637
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 50.83 -17.101 37.74% -0.78 0.6543
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 -7.06 12.96% -0.463 0.9599
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 283 64.54% 43.2 -8.9 18.37% -1.315 0.7706
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1436 19.65% 44.99 -2.974 78.48% -0.169 0.0487
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1052 27.94% 45.65 -3.602 70.82% -0.629 -0.5103
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1413 23.51% 56.88 0.359 76.01% -0.535 -0.4192
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1263 28.73% 63.42 -1.282 76.88% -0.904 -0.7051
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 809 27.44% 64.92 -1.318 73.3% -0.74 -0.4406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 510 51.57% 67.03 6.974 60.78% -0.432 0.1504
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3060 75.08% 56.21 -6.761 36.08% -2.046 -0.5632
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1047 22.03% 43.72 -0.731 75.26% 0.049 0.3841
The Kingdom of England 1 3 660 28.77% 51.99 1.433 72.73% 0.02 0.2899
The Kingdom of England 2 4 678 40.68% 44.54 -1.194 52.36% -0.614 0.119
The Kingdom of England 3 6 573 45.66% 47.75 -6.58 43.28% -1.6 -0.4442
The Kingdom of England 4 7 405 42.68% 56.15 5.661 50.12% -0.631 0.5929
The Kingdom of England 5 9 220 71.69% 42.39 -12.093 15.91% -1.23 0.4709
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2784 62.52% 45.39 -5.118 14.69% -1.941 0.1286
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 711 26.23% 48.7 -1.206 77.22% -0.227 0.3146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 407 41.52% 48.19 -6.36 66.58% -0.997 -0.325
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1134 23.02% 54.35 5.81 61.73% 0.057 1.1151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 523 41.68% 52.36 1.291 43.4% -0.837 0.5477
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 388 41.49% 56.57 27.56 43.56% 0.2 1.6649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 368 49.18% 48.51 -1.449 30.16% -1.097 -0.0304
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3545 37.11% 56.31 8.55 36.28% -0.658 0.7549
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 145 13.79% 39.67 -4.018 63.45% -0.511 -0.2936
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 90 37.78% 42.61 -1.314 54.44% -0.514 0.1045
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 84 35.71% 38.06 -2.652 44.05% -0.746 -0.2393
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 118 42.37% 48.43 -1.173 38.14% -1.382 -0.9383
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 84 42.86% 54.57 -3.784 48.81% -1.369 -0.5843
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 168 60.12% 61.7 5.394 47.62% -0.885 -0.3914
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 541 62.78% 44.33 -4.948 14.42% -2.333 -1.3646
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 779 23.67% 43.16 -5.624 76.51% -0.795 -0.588
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 610 22.66% 49.56 -0.438 81.48% -0.152 -0.109
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 627 31.73% 50.29 3.299 74.16% 0.192 0.3947
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 847 23.97% 43.07 -10.453 55.84% -2.369 -2.038
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 404 45.54% 59.11 -7.655 71.78% -1.54 -0.831
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 205 53.66% 53.93 16.527 57.07% 0.38 1.21
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1032 44.95% 61.7 -4.39 63.76% -1.137 -0.0354
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 457 19.26% 45.02 -11.357 79.21% -0.896 -0.7221
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 295 27.8% 54.32 1.827 75.59% -0.024 0.7904
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 250 22.0% 61.68 2.324 80.8% -0.15 0.1122
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 131 47.33% 55.24 4.134 58.78% -0.228 0.8414
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 77 40.26% 62.95 2.98 61.04% -0.462 0.5048
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 74 55.41% 51.43 -14.286 29.73% -2.345 -0.7129
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2228 33.69% 69.68 7.736 51.17% -0.444 1.2495

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19330 28.48 49.53 72.24% 0.374 0.4037 0.94
1 Thematic 7659 51.59 54.25 44.69% -0.344 0.0738 0.647
2 Archipelago 145 48.97 59.66 31.72% -0.184 0.2865 0.107
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4159 25.57 51.01 80.55% 0.447 0.3786 0.934
2 Coastline 500 28.22 47.89 69.6% 0.611 0.4814 0.335
2 Fragment 79 27.85 48.37 73.42% 0.182 -0.2723 -0.484
2 Heart 92 39.13 49.95 31.52% -0.482 -0.6108 -1.588
2 Opposite Shores 1856 29.16 41.98 54.74% 0.22 0.0207 0.133
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1851 43.2 51.33 52.89% 0.216 0.4004 0.234
2 Top to Top 128 33.07 56.9 78.13% 0.198 -0.0332 1.322
3 Archipelago 62 58.06 57.03 27.42% 0.361 -0.92 -0.239
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.446 -0.318 0.571
3 Other 64 33.33 51.88 76.56% 1.075 0.7478 1.055
3 Round (Default) 2489 21.58 52.79 79.51% -0.242 -0.5543 0.248
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% -0.636 -0.6519 0.59
3 Thematic 307 34.53 58.83 57.65% -1.172 -1.5329 0.545
4 Archipelago 15 33.33 59.8 60.0% -0.475
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.179
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% 0.551 1.155 -0.547
4 Other 70 24.29 58.23 82.86% -0.206
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1620 21.12 61.95 70.06% -0.082 0.2925 0.632
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2078 21.76 60.62 79.07% -0.284 -0.0205 -0.149
5 Archipelago 12 66.67 65.0 41.67% -0.049 -0.1327 -0.051
5 Other 89 33.71 58.89 62.92% 0.182 -0.489 0.205
5 Thematic 75 49.33 60.35 41.33% 0.61 0.7648 0.231
6 Archipelago 9 11.11 65.22 77.78% 0.761
6 Other 31 19.35 48.94 58.06% 0.102 0.4085 -0.387
6 Star 15 26.67 44.67 46.67% -1.211
6 Thematic 583 11.15 24.24 21.96% -0.394 -0.4107 -1.667
6 Two Centers (Default) 99 32.65 53.63 67.68% -1.005 -1.0604 -0.803
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.673 0.1953 -0.307
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.797

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 740 47.51 42.97% -0.122 0.042 -1.132
Aid From Lesser Spirits 656 49.88 47.56% -0.292 -0.3157 -0.929
All Things Weaken 469 46.23 42.0% -0.194 0.1724 -1.102
Attenuated Essence 56 45.02 28.57% -0.683 -0.5507 -1.17
Back Against the Wall 648 46.63 41.67% -0.868 -0.7906 -1.413
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 70 39.29 27.14% -0.674 -0.4529 -1.414
Burn Brightest Before the End 48 40.08 25.0% -1.514 -1.4011 -1.84
Disintegrating Ecosystem 727 42.0 36.86% -0.899 -0.5248 -1.509
Downward Spiral 3189 44.52 32.11% -1.052 -0.8632 -1.196
Erosion of Will 796 45.67 40.7% -0.726 -0.4198 -1.193
Intensifying Exploitation 66 36.53 24.24% -0.447 -0.1831 -1.475
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 217 55.58 70.97% -0.055 -0.6155 -0.152
Memory Fades to Dust 3202 43.54 29.95% -0.601 -0.2897 -1.334
Power Corrodes the Spirit 413 46.45 43.1% -0.282 0.0248 -1.101
Promising Farmlands 704 41.99 33.95% -0.463 -0.1124 -1.566
Shattered Fragments of Power 41 37.29 24.39% -1.107 -0.9558 -1.716
Slow Dissolution of Will 45 40.31 28.89% 0.143 0.5712 -1.393
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 134 54.47 68.66% 0.578 -0.0195 -0.018
The Border of Life and Death 17 38.94 58.82% -0.057 -0.3419 -0.721
Thriving Communities 388 41.34 27.32% -1.348 -1.0378 -1.738
Thriving Crops 25 40.56 48.0% -0.885 -0.9421 -0.796
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.387
Unnatural Proliferation 450 45.08 37.11% -1.011 -0.8422 -1.313
Untended Land Crumbles 444 44.74 42.57% -0.524 -0.2121 -1.135

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8335 28.02% 48.43 70.91% -0.399 0.4932 -1.101
B 8221 27.4% 51.15 74.08% -0.361 0.449 -1.149
C 8800 25.71% 53.79 76.11% -0.34 0.3239 -0.839
D 7550 27.12% 51.69 73.47% -0.364 0.464 -1.094
E 3416 27.69% 53.28 73.42% -0.069 0.6144 -1.206
F 4915 24.91% 50.97 74.26% -0.574 0.1934 -1.481
G 4494 24.31% 53.06 77.15% -0.485 0.2724 -1.057
H 5553 23.06% 53.09 71.51% -0.439 0.3065 -0.902
East 9415 43.78% 53.68 48.03% 0.124 0.9626 -1.188
Northeast 5622 41.39% 52.16 44.36% -0.633 0.0533 -1.668
Northwest 3360 31.26% 50.76 51.52% -0.441 0.3722 -1.464
Southeast 1550 29.03% 41.42 41.81% -0.361 0.3162 -1.621
Southwest 1275 21.41% 35.41 37.88% -1.58 -0.2104 -1.75
West 6175 33.12% 52.75 54.95% -0.182 0.78 -1.003

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 373 0.0% 43.34 70.78% -0.938 -0.0937 -0.319
Not Using Events or Tokens 10407 44.99% 49.04 55.34% -0.17 0.2738 -0.359
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1334 15.2% 65.72 82.16% 1.76 1.1782 0.13
Start of Game Growth 1722 14.75% 64.1 82.29% 0.557 0.0178 0.675
Unlimited Undo 2891 21.78% 53.22 77.14% -0.127 -0.0841 0.118
Using Tokens but Not Events 4989 14.36% 48.86 77.33% -0.457 -0.4862 0.108

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7655 16.19 0.0%
II 26459 30.54 85.08%
III 6887 34.77 83.19%
IV 2465 38.38 20.08%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.157 Win Model: 0.385
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27946 35.32% 50.32 62.59%
2 8004 30.08% 50.8 73.08%
3 2920 23.62% 54.01 76.82%
4 3781 21.09% 61.28 76.06%
5 108 34.26% 55.48 49.07%
6 707 13.19% 29.36 31.26%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2828
Lose: Invader deck ran out 320
Lose: Adversary condition 4064
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 2325
Win: Scenario condition 28705
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4795
Lose: Spirit destroyed 400

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-15 05:27:44 (Pacific Time)