Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 0.0% 59.0 8.607 100.0% 0.117 0.1044
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 0.0% 63.33 10.117 100.0% 0.403 -0.0418
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 2 0.0% 72.0 11.627 100.0% 0.155 0.0744
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 0.0% 74.0 11.365 100.0% 0.127 0.0149
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 33.33% 57.0 5.615 66.67% -0.384 -0.4272
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 2 50.0% 46.0 -2.742 50.0% -0.716 -0.3518
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 12 41.67% 19.0 -13.186 16.67% -2.475 -0.8599
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 408 26.96% 45.05 -2.441 65.44% -0.06 0.263
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 333 25.83% 52.54 -1.123 74.77% -0.505 -0.1335
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 254 39.76% 54.27 5.608 68.5% -0.535 0.094
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 219 45.21% 57.48 10.237 63.93% 0.171 1.0049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 60 63.33% 50.57 0.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 83.33% 43.54 0.0 12.96%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 318 59.94% 41.86 -16.236 18.55% -2.355 -0.4168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1587 19.71% 43.2 -4.526 75.11% -0.838 -0.621
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1195 27.19% 44.39 -2.525 68.62% -1.143 -1.0257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1718 21.37% 52.15 -3.692 69.73% -1.055 -0.9478
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1463 27.95% 60.94 1.211 74.09% -0.643 -0.3507
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 843 27.52% 64.44 7.862 72.84% -0.204 0.0694
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 551 49.91% 65.44 3.16 59.71% -0.72 -0.4784
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3272 73.05% 54.34 -5.426 35.09% -1.864 -0.6364
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1117 21.53% 42.82 -3.902 73.59% -0.358 0.0132
The Kingdom of England 1 3 777 27.13% 50.97 2.513 71.56% -0.865 -0.3356
The Kingdom of England 2 4 732 40.68% 43.79 -2.181 51.64% -0.864 -0.2629
The Kingdom of England 3 6 635 44.34% 45.71 -2.124 41.57% -1.362 -0.19
The Kingdom of England 4 7 451 40.98% 54.75 -8.006 48.12% -1.704 -0.7834
The Kingdom of England 5 9 237 69.07% 40.51 -11.195 15.19% -2.354 -1.0645
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3017 60.3% 44.08 -3.901 14.98% -2.342 -0.4454
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 737 26.26% 48.29 -1.392 76.26% -0.416 0.1227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 448 40.85% 46.87 -7.345 64.51% -1.497 -0.6931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1219 23.05% 53.71 2.264 61.12% -0.496 0.6593
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 585 41.2% 51.02 1.711 42.91% -1.215 0.0155
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 448 43.53% 56.03 4.18 42.63% -0.191 1.084
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 392 48.47% 47.29 -9.378 28.83% -1.35 -0.3286
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4091 35.23% 54.05 -0.817 35.69% -1.84 -0.3952
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 191 13.61% 38.4 -7.883 62.3% -0.925 -0.676
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 128 35.94% 39.24 -0.295 46.88% -0.597 -0.2887
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 107 34.58% 36.55 -1.3 42.06% -0.142 0.2352
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 151 44.37% 48.97 0.621 39.07% -0.445 -0.1935
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 106 44.34% 53.69 14.863 46.23% 0.476 1.3867
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 224 53.57% 52.17 -20.096 40.18% -1.379 -0.8355
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 607 61.39% 42.92 -11.235 14.66% -2.071 -0.8645
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 884 22.65% 41.37 -5.407 72.96% -1.041 -0.7865
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 668 23.19% 48.24 -4.292 78.89% -0.735 -0.5738
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 701 31.09% 48.45 -1.723 71.47% -0.606 -0.3506
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1049 21.26% 37.8 -9.102 49.0% -1.746 -1.2855
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 433 45.27% 57.42 -1.879 69.98% -0.575 0.1401
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 223 50.22% 51.29 -8.535 54.26% -1.343 -0.4581
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1120 44.85% 58.98 -7.168 60.45% -1.775 -0.7654
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 500 19.0% 44.25 0.28 78.0% 0.245 0.4141
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 332 26.2% 52.44 3.97 73.8% 0.078 0.8098
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 269 23.05% 59.96 -4.529 78.81% -0.93 -0.4418
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 145 44.83% 53.43 5.332 57.24% -0.27 0.5312
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 80 38.75% 62.15 0.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 92 48.91% 45.28 -3.53 26.09% -0.024 1.796
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2737 31.74% 64.92 6.894 48.63% -0.326 1.5504

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 22264 27.28 48.53 71.1% 0.445 0.7246 0.978
1 Thematic 8146 50.49 53.12 44.33% 0.122 0.7474 0.731
2 Archipelago 192 39.06 45.67 25.0% -1.761 -1.3254 -0.254
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4475 25.02 49.91 79.13% 0.078 0.2297 0.93
2 Coastline 629 25.32 42.6 62.64% 0.341 0.1043 0.055
2 Fragment 82 28.05 47.43 71.95% 0.162 0.1402 -0.425
2 Heart 111 43.24 48.97 29.73% 0.156 0.0551 -1.336
2 Opposite Shores 2025 28.91 41.1 53.68% 0.225 0.3829 0.156
2 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
2 Thematic 1952 42.34 50.63 52.25% 0.825 1.4752 0.268
2 Top to Top 153 31.33 51.55 69.93% -0.071 -0.3049 1.038
3 Archipelago 75 60.0 57.81 29.33% 0.211 0.1497 0.117
3 Coastline 7 0.0 66.71 100.0% 0.829
3 Other 67 33.33 49.55 73.13% -0.156 -1.0682 0.898
3 Round (Default) 2726 21.02 51.84 77.88% -0.475 -0.4547 0.223
3 Sunrise 8 0.0 67.75 87.5% 0.523
3 Thematic 331 34.74 57.85 56.8% 0.192 0.1811 0.528
4 Archipelago 20 50.0 66.8 70.0% 0.704 0.2961 0.744
4 Coastline 3 0.0 39.33 66.67% 0.023
4 Leaf 15 20.0 51.07 86.67% -0.534
4 Other 72 25.0 57.65 81.94% -0.302
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 1819 19.64 57.45 65.31% -1.056 -0.8655 0.534
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2375 20.46 57.65 76.8% 1.157 1.27 -0.289
5 Archipelago 13 61.54 64.08 46.15% 0.074
5 Other 115 26.96 53.78 60.87% -0.356 -0.636 -0.086
5 Thematic 80 48.75 60.61 42.5% 0.454 0.3697 0.104
6 Archipelago 13 7.69 55.31 69.23% -0.174 -1.1621 0.654
6 Other 38 15.79 41.97 50.0% -0.47 -0.3285 -0.711
6 Star 17 23.53 46.53 52.94% 0.525 1.3278 -1.227
6 Thematic 825 9.45 23.08 21.58% -0.615 -0.1541 -1.653
6 Two Centers (Default) 179 34.27 49.74 58.1% -1.046 -0.5169 -1.116
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.199
7 Other 1 100.0 61.0 0.0% -0.786

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 799 47.19 43.18% 0.125 0.3144 -1.011
Aid From Lesser Spirits 698 49.57 47.71% 0.588 0.4723 -0.785
All Things Weaken 513 46.71 42.69% -0.019 0.208 -0.877
Attenuated Essence 83 47.25 37.35% -0.517 -0.4284 -0.6
Back Against the Wall 686 46.93 41.98% -1.032 -1.0631 -1.269
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 85 37.34 25.88% -0.966 -0.8127 -1.437
Burn Brightest Before the End 67 38.1 25.37% -0.61 -0.4532 -2.098
Disintegrating Ecosystem 770 41.61 37.01% -0.762 -0.4088 -1.381
Downward Spiral 3381 44.25 32.53% -0.165 -0.01 -1.032
Erosion of Will 848 45.41 40.57% -0.185 0.0557 -1.094
Intensifying Exploitation 89 36.01 25.84% -0.247 -0.0023 -1.223
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 232 54.88 69.83% -0.159 -0.4744 -0.088
Memory Fades to Dust 3384 43.18 30.38% -0.046 0.2389 -1.154
Power Corrodes the Spirit 457 46.5 43.11% -0.017 0.1558 -0.974
Promising Farmlands 751 41.49 33.29% -0.903 -0.4415 -1.453
Shattered Fragments of Power 59 37.78 23.73% -0.104 0.108 -1.408
Slow Dissolution of Will 72 39.29 31.94% -0.904 -0.3484 -1.187
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 141 53.45 67.38% -0.99 -1.5377 0.041
The Border of Life and Death 26 41.35 50.0% -0.622 -0.8912 -0.956
Thriving Communities 430 40.74 27.44% -1.117 -0.7531 -1.622
Thriving Crops 42 35.69 38.1% -0.776 -0.9693 -0.869
Tipping Point 229 43.58 35.37% -1.277
Unnatural Proliferation 489 44.74 36.4% -0.69 -0.4794 -1.226
Untended Land Crumbles 486 45.36 43.0% -0.274 0.0299 -0.913

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9361 27.37% 47.1 69.17% -0.655 0.286 -1.263
B 9295 26.43% 49.75 72.32% -0.495 0.3495 -1.317
C 10208 24.4% 52.33 74.78% -0.051 0.6741 -0.999
D 8740 25.94% 49.34 70.39% -0.461 0.402 -1.304
E 4014 26.6% 51.18 70.15% -0.552 0.1523 -1.371
F 5451 24.37% 49.91 72.76% -0.542 0.2517 -1.582
G 5061 23.66% 51.49 75.06% -0.41 0.4097 -1.256
H 6166 22.71% 51.51 69.77% -0.724 0.0476 -1.087
East 10314 41.72% 51.5 46.55% -0.236 0.6527 -1.368
Northeast 6213 39.19% 49.79 42.93% -0.137 0.407 -1.762
Northwest 3786 28.93% 47.79 48.71% -0.611 0.3573 -1.61
Southeast 1945 25.09% 37.57 38.46% -0.29 0.3978 -1.773
Southwest 1649 18.13% 32.0 34.51% -1.171 0.1706 -1.944
West 6841 31.22% 50.17 52.55% -0.847 -0.0214 -1.14

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 434 0.0% 40.6 65.67% -0.286 0.4709 -1.007
Not Using Events or Tokens 11306 43.78% 47.55 54.5% -1.169 -0.7042 -0.47
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1441 14.6% 64.48 80.5% 1.15 0.6695 0.031
Start of Game Growth 1860 14.29% 63.03 80.65% -0.22 -0.7622 0.747
Unlimited Undo 3162 21.3% 52.51 75.4% -0.163 -0.2594 0.186
Using Tokens but Not Events 5786 13.62% 46.65 74.47% 0.694 0.5619 0.02

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9459 14.46 0.0%
II 29252 30.34 85.14%
III 7481 34.85 83.13%
IV 2655 38.6 20.38%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.136 Win Model: 0.426
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 31602 33.66% 49.0 61.88%
2 8596 29.69% 50.08 72.25%
3 3206 23.1% 52.79 74.92%
4 4267 19.85% 57.86 72.93%
5 136 29.41% 52.5 51.47%
6 1040 12.81% 28.61 30.29%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4648
Lose: Invader deck ran out 343
Lose: Adversary condition 4261
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Scenario condition 2489
Win: Scenario condition 31634
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5025
Lose: Spirit destroyed 417

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-13 04:00:02 (Pacific Time)