Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 223 22.87% 48.18 -2.306 73.99% -1.159 -0.8809
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 164 23.78% 55.99 2.023 84.15% -0.358 0.0362
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 105 37.14% 61.86 4.966 80.95% -0.476 0.4017
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 89 53.93% 54.8 2.002 62.92% -1.404 -0.1523
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 76.0% 58.28 3.796 56.0% -1.288 0.2338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 94.87% 35.1 -6.087 7.69% -3.036 -1.0584
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 158 75.95% 47.36 -1.48 22.78% -2.982 -0.9326
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1273 20.4% 46.17 -2.674 80.68% -0.854 -0.8135
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 899 30.44% 46.95 -1.933 73.08% -1.143 -1.1716
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 850 29.5% 59.1 3.749 81.29% -0.719 -0.7144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 954 33.79% 66.39 7.147 81.55% -0.486 -0.1972
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 547 35.49% 70.93 9.518 80.44% -0.435 -0.0678
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 469 54.91% 68.74 9.271 64.82% -0.997 -0.1681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3116 81.46% 60.49 5.027 39.76% -1.717 -0.476
The Kingdom of England 0 1 871 21.58% 46.12 -2.442 80.83% -0.689 -0.357
The Kingdom of England 1 3 564 26.87% 53.78 1.424 78.01% -0.877 -0.3731
The Kingdom of England 2 4 495 42.16% 50.12 -0.452 62.42% -1.56 -0.5913
The Kingdom of England 3 6 501 53.06% 48.69 -0.97 44.91% -2.575 -0.9965
The Kingdom of England 4 7 372 51.89% 52.5 0.849 43.55% -2.483 -0.9854
The Kingdom of England 5 9 155 76.16% 43.68 -2.994 18.71% -3.535 -1.4681
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2208 68.4% 48.68 -1.56 15.26% -3.803 -1.5485
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 714 25.98% 49.61 -0.821 80.11% -0.82 -0.3053
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 349 38.4% 50.79 -0.216 73.35% -1.096 -0.2006
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 694 25.36% 55.84 1.456 62.97% -2.188 -0.0514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 630 45.79% 50.92 -0.318 41.43% -2.886 -0.7011
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 454 35.98% 58.47 3.086 48.9% -2.706 -0.5597
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 215 48.37% 62.04 5.548 48.84% -2.242 -0.4219
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2243 37.44% 60.91 4.28 38.3% -3.09 -0.9835
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 698 22.25% 46.01 -2.59 82.23% -0.577 -0.4925
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 565 22.82% 52.0 0.045 86.19% -0.241 -0.2205
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 471 31.13% 52.18 0.358 77.92% -0.784 -0.5522
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 522 38.77% 62.59 5.585 82.95% -0.387 -0.1006
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 346 54.62% 59.81 4.464 72.25% -0.809 -0.0323
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 204 63.24% 54.8 2.886 53.92% -1.363 -0.2061
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 817 44.49% 69.79 7.044 75.15% -1.361 -0.2298
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 199 16.08% 50.72 -0.907 91.96% 0.342 0.2357
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 128 24.22% 58.05 2.072 85.94% -0.375 0.3677
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 85 16.47% 65.79 4.916 89.41% -0.331 0.1007
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 69 53.62% 58.19 4.074 62.32% -1.247 0.0018
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 31 41.94% 58.65 3.873 54.84% -1.977 -0.85
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 60.0% 52.75 1.229 35.0% -2.075 -0.0563
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 768 28.68% 93.21 19.175 80.47% -1.018 0.8874

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 13587 31.11 50.35 -1.386 74.24% -0.154 0.179
1 Thematic 7299 55.07 56.1 1.607 43.31% -0.443 0.0555
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3736 27.92 51.98 -0.53 81.5% 0.223 0.4234
2 Coastline 395 35.86 50.73 -1.13 76.46% 0.027 0.1812
2 Fragment 91 25.27 50.14 -1.141 76.92% -0.195 0.2012
2 Heart 69 52.17 42.38 -4.524 55.07% -0.669 -0.3472
2 Opposite Shores 981 22.14 48.76 -1.561 82.77% 0.339 0.5683
2 Thematic 2110 39.06 52.55 -1.297 62.23% -0.477 -0.4155
2 Top to Top 106 33.02 55.16 1.013 78.3% 0.411 0.5428
3 Coastline 8 37.5 54.13 -0.707 75.0% -0.05 -0.0884
3 Other 53 36.54 51.09 -1.123 75.47% -0.021 0.3988
3 Round (Default) 1894 24.21 53.88 -0.154 81.52% 0.181 0.2371
3 Sunrise 1 100.0 38.0 -4.723 100.0% 0.084 -0.1103
3 Thematic 274 37.23 63.62 1.854 65.33% 0.045 -0.2843
4 Coastline 1 0.0 26.0 -16.426 0.0% -0.928 -0.8029
4 Leaf 10 10.0 47.1 -4.133 80.0% -0.591 -0.5444
4 Other 60 11.86 53.17 -1.691 86.67% -0.191 -0.0784
4 Snake 1 0.0 62.0 4.875 100.0% 0.131 0.2861
4 Thematic 1166 27.41 68.46 2.939 76.16% 0.226 -0.7979
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1858 23.13 62.92 2.947 83.69% 0.497 0.5321
5 Other 4 0.0 83.25 10.321 100.0% 0.336 0.0809
5 Thematic 6 50.0 91.0 14.256 100.0% 1.256 -1.6875

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 687 47.93 -3.893 47.74% -1.641 0.4328
Aid From Lesser Spirits 642 49.8 -2.897 51.56% -1.538 0.3811
All Things Weaken 222 46.16 -5.113 48.65% -1.724 0.4352
Back Against the Wall 598 48.26 -3.744 46.82% -1.702 0.3915
Disintegrating Ecosystem 642 41.13 -7.187 37.69% -2.196 0.0285
Downward Spiral 3113 46.44 -4.83 33.15% -1.967 0.0544
Erosion of Will 686 45.73 -4.735 45.19% -1.796 0.4131
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 111 54.26 0.127 74.77% -0.374 0.3183
Memory Fades to Dust 3148 45.59 -5.293 30.75% -2.101 0.1177
Power Corrodes the Spirit 200 43.62 -5.878 43.5% -1.985 0.0363
Promising Farmlands 646 40.01 -7.643 31.89% -2.44 -0.2253
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 75 53.81 -1.022 70.67% -0.728 -0.3172
Thriving Communities 171 40.24 -7.692 30.99% -2.501 -0.4082
Tipping Point 432 42.4 -6.474 36.11% -2.119 0.1063
Unnatural Proliferation 200 44.75 -5.282 44.0% -1.978 0.1115
Untended Land Crumbles 213 44.33 -5.688 46.48% -1.864 0.2423

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 6802 29.9% 51.43 -0.824 77.86% 0.265 -0.8468
B 7237 28.47% 53.19 -0.032 79.07% 0.438 -0.7696
C 7482 27.38% 53.02 0.029 80.05% 0.507 -0.9322
D 6753 28.07% 53.37 0.107 79.11% 0.473 -0.729
E 1394 29.82% 53.43 -0.345 77.4% 0.379 -0.9329
F 2657 24.14% 53.5 -0.559 78.96% 0.214 -1.0514
G 2581 24.74% 55.51 0.271 79.93% 0.407 -0.8499
H 3083 22.79% 60.09 1.856 80.51% 0.349 -0.9166
East 5275 44.11% 60.0 2.276 58.75% 0.467 -0.5138
Northeast 4537 49.26% 57.84 1.175 48.98% 0.34 -0.5912
Northwest 2542 39.93% 59.64 0.888 61.88% 0.318 -0.6817
Southeast 509 43.03% 55.76 0.174 59.92% 0.508 -0.5175
Southwest 334 30.84% 47.86 -5.197 55.99% -0.921 -1.5405
West 3800 35.51% 60.13 1.172 65.61% 0.23 -0.4951

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 393 0.0% 50.36 -2.82 79.39% -1.55 0.5039
Not Using Events or Tokens 9606 48.9% 51.48 -0.94 53.77% -0.241 -0.0228
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1216 11.91% 67.91 5.489 87.25% 1.069 0.3754
Start of Game Growth 1466 12.78% 65.98 4.029 87.24% 0.359 -0.104
Unlimited Undo 3018 21.17% 55.27 0.491 82.21% 0.128 -0.2923
Using Tokens but Not Events 3474 15.9% 52.56 -0.681 89.32% 0.64 0.5877

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4658 22.34 0.0%
II 21398 30.81 84.53%
III 5721 34.31 83.5%
IV 1933 37.5 17.07%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.612 Win Model: -0.394
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 20897 39.54% 52.36 63.44%
2 7483 31.01% 51.57 75.6%
3 2235 26.1% 55.09 79.42%
4 3095 24.49% 64.81 80.94%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 323
Lose: Adversary condition 3621
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 1892
Win: Scenario condition 23185
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4305
Lose: Spirit destroyed 374

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)