Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1102 61.3% 26.0 -1.704 60.07% -0.586 -0.0139
Dahan Insurrection 4 1298 35.73% 48.52 8.79 61.02% -1.031 -0.63
Elemental Invocation 1 12 41.67% 29.42 0.047 75.0% -0.346 0.1188
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3524 22.26% 38.09 3.124 67.31% -0.739 -0.3637
Powers Long Forgotten 1 504 68.8% 31.44 0.564 60.91% -0.427 0.0205
Rituals of Terror 3 484 75.63% 30.83 0.976 41.32% -1.424 -0.8022
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 297 82.15% 33.22 2.155 52.19% -0.724 -0.0998
Second Wave 0 4317 51.35% 28.81 -0.167 72.87% -0.617 -0.1978
The Great River 3 25 56.0% 29.68 0.227 36.0% -2.109 -0.624
Ward the Shores 2 393 69.15% 28.56 -0.93 38.93% -1.576 -0.5456

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 51629 60.72% 26.9 -0.474 69.64% -0.911 -0.5566
1 Thematic 2324 62.45% 33.78 1.39 56.76% -1.125 -0.6278
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 16549 60.18% 28.47 -0.262 69.68% -0.439 -0.2494
2 Coastline 1928 59.68% 28.81 -0.141 72.56% -0.323 -0.1876
2 Fragment 481 63.36% 24.95 -1.666 65.28% -0.78 -0.3544
2 Heart 256 67.89% 24.47 -1.841 66.8% -0.706 -0.4156
2 Opposite Shores 3364 51.75% 29.0 -0.337 72.89% -0.415 -0.1883
2 Thematic 1489 53.93% 37.21 2.029 59.44% -0.637 -0.5923
2 Top to Top 597 59.57% 28.37 -0.406 68.51% -0.451 -0.3343
3 Coastline 44 55.81% 31.07 -0.241 56.82% -0.111 -0.1491
3 Other 339 49.69% 27.76 -1.099 70.5% -0.256 0.1455
3 Round (Default) 8361 49.61% 31.41 0.411 74.14% 0.235 0.2663
3 Sunrise 40 57.5% 26.9 -1.643 72.5% 0.152 -0.1012
3 Thematic 385 50.39% 37.7 1.898 58.7% -0.15 -0.4888
4 Coastline 17 23.53% 32.18 -0.24 82.35% 0.08 0.2025
4 Leaf 32 50.0% 31.22 0.252 81.25% 0.956 1.0353
4 Other 199 50.78% 31.27 -0.06 78.89% 0.792 0.8733
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 4.072 100.0% 0.531 -0.2613
4 Snake 5 40.0% 24.0 -3.944 60.0% -0.331 -0.2053
4 Thematic 1468 46.52% 39.24 2.206 67.44% 0.589 -0.4889
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6755 43.33% 33.1 0.788 76.91% 0.84 0.8075
5 Other 62 37.1% 37.0 2.175 95.16% 1.783 1.5655
5 Thematic 10 50.0% 38.7 3.217 100.0% 1.432 -1.3349

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3825 28.72 -1.555 52.99% -1.986 0.0821
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3175 30.37 -0.728 55.34% -1.897 0.0192
All Things Weaken 943 26.78 -2.317 46.77% -2.26 -0.1002
Back Against the Wall 3193 29.61 -1.098 53.21% -1.99 0.1023
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3823 26.68 -2.611 51.03% -2.066 0.1555
Downward Spiral 11416 24.9 -2.232 62.7% -1.775 0.2389
Erosion of Will 3687 28.44 -1.69 52.16% -2.03 0.1816
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 263 33.44 1.24 76.05% -0.635 0.0768
Memory Fades to Dust 11495 23.82 -2.773 57.42% -2.047 0.1688
Power Corrodes the Spirit 966 28.01 -1.679 53.21% -1.914 0.106
Promising Farmlands 4009 28.82 -1.538 55.97% -1.847 0.3673
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 231 34.49 1.751 83.12% -0.285 0.1318
Thriving Communities 959 27.24 -1.945 52.24% -1.935 0.1718
Tipping Point 2509 28.32 -1.846 51.69% -2.016 0.2004
Unnatural Proliferation 1075 29.01 -1.14 51.35% -2.001 0.0789
Untended Land Crumbles 920 28.73 -1.327 53.8% -1.817 0.278

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 17505 60.32% 26.67 -0.765 69.36% 0.035 -1.0385
B 19276 57.92% 27.72 -0.317 71.06% 0.141 -1.0231
C 18396 57.63% 27.93 -0.173 70.86% 0.161 -1.2359
D 18820 55.57% 29.29 0.473 72.5% 0.241 -0.9172
E 2479 60.41% 29.4 -0.037 68.62% 0.128 -1.1284
F 4848 56.64% 29.43 0.07 70.3% 0.138 -1.0875
G 5109 57.72% 29.8 0.217 70.03% 0.181 -1.0318
H 4441 58.45% 28.94 -0.101 69.78% 0.121 -1.1009
East 1273 50.95% 38.48 2.766 63.24% -0.071 -1.007
Northeast 1455 54.98% 38.08 2.511 61.99% -0.057 -0.9263
Northwest 1156 56.94% 36.61 1.926 60.21% -0.036 -0.9816
Southeast 162 55.56% 31.04 -0.584 58.64% -0.34 -1.3232
Southwest 168 58.33% 29.05 -1.617 61.9% -0.3 -0.9248
West 1249 55.04% 35.03 1.223 56.2% -0.283 -0.948

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 5300 0.0% 16.37 -5.271 61.43% -2.557 -0.5181
Not Using Events or Tokens 23728 60.99% 23.09 -2.347 71.82% -0.194 0.0266
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2978 25.27% 33.93 2.265 85.49% 0.65 -0.0554
Start of Game Growth 3842 27.96% 32.83 1.592 83.34% 0.197 -0.2621
Unlimited Undo 9239 51.11% 31.95 1.503 75.64% 0.417 0.0142
Using Tokens but Not Events 9100 51.39% 25.61 -1.595 76.32% 0.042 -0.0036

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 5204 43.95% 30.96 0.254 75.61% -0.053 0.0934
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1395 50.26% 30.82 -0.1 70.82% -0.14 -0.2267
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2215 41.48% 32.61 0.917 80.68% 0.269 -0.0999
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1288 48.74% 31.58 0.315 74.92% 0.061 -0.1724
Fractured Days Split the Sky 255 52.19% 36.85 2.524 72.94% 0.115 0.4486
Heart of the Wildfire 3537 64.13% 28.06 -1.333 65.51% -0.317 0.0307
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4209 47.5% 33.56 0.966 74.67% 0.136 -0.1617
Lightning's Swift Strike 5222 50.72% 29.12 -0.333 72.42% -0.193 0.0758
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 293 48.11% 32.75 0.519 76.11% 0.108 -0.2532
Many Minds Move as One 536 45.32% 34.59 1.584 80.6% 0.436 -0.0777
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 14303 52.02% 33.0 1.374 73.61% 0.256 0.0588
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1415 52.09% 31.83 0.378 71.1% -0.051 -0.0035
River Surges in Sunlight 5345 50.07% 32.52 0.714 71.77% -0.18 -0.0132
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4284 47.97% 34.23 1.283 71.87% -0.019 0.1299
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 4790 59.55% 27.99 -0.783 70.92% -0.2 0.2496
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3021 49.08% 32.49 0.496 73.95% 0.001 -0.0632
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 769 54.38% 30.64 -0.408 69.83% -0.044 -0.0632
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1319 41.01% 35.34 1.662 77.71% 0.184 0.3991
Thunderspeaker 4478 49.09% 32.52 0.881 72.67% -0.044 0.0164
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 730 65.34% 28.77 -1.159 64.11% -0.269 -0.233
Vital Strength of the Earth 3799 49.64% 28.03 -1.142 69.91% -0.38 0.4848
Volcano Looming High 103 62.14% 28.42 -1.208 69.9% -0.104 -0.2052

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.56%
Dread Apparitions 86.85%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.82%
Predatory Nightmares 65.69%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4808 22.34 1.73%
II 17828 30.71 17.33%
III 28988 34.23 68.75%
IV 44713 37.48 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 50
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12021
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1619
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 28361
Lose: Invader deck ran out 113
Lose: Adversary condition 7103
Win: Sacrifice victory 319
Lose: Scenario condition 1081
Win: Scenario condition 944
Lose: Blight pool ran out 19451
Lose: Spirit destroyed 979

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.151 Win Model: -0.199

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.307 Win Model: -0.37
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 53978 60.8% 27.2 69.09%
2 24711 58.69% 29.0 69.6%
3 9145 49.75% 31.52 73.32%
4 8503 43.91% 34.11 75.43%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)