Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 37.5% 25.81 100.0% 0.7 0.8083 0.0
Blitz 0 997 63.29% 26.77 59.48% -0.488 -0.2207 -0.613
Dahan Insurrection 4 1181 36.79% 48.38 60.29% -1.16 -0.8269 0.078
Despicable Theft 2 47 57.45% 33.04 70.21% -0.02 0.2311 -0.863
Elemental Invocation 1 165 66.67% 28.71 66.06% 0.184 0.8328 -0.859
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2908 22.0% 39.39 70.01% -0.049 0.1171 0.166
Powers Long Forgotten 1 408 65.6% 30.75 59.56% -0.75 -0.4238 -0.782
Rituals of Terror 3 466 68.26% 45.56 47.0% 0.681 0.5711 0.713
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 241 83.82% 33.98 53.11% -0.537 0.1197 -0.584
Second Wave 0 3782 49.76% 28.31 74.03% -0.353 0.1177 -0.223
The Great River 3 61 57.38% 31.33 45.9% -1.687 -0.1859 -0.993
Varied Terrains 2 8 75.0% 34.38 62.5% -0.147 0.3887 0.199
Ward the Shores 2 341 74.12% 26.23 34.6% -1.653 -0.4656 -1.337

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 72500 60.78% 27.02 69.81% 0.182 0.6292 -0.382
1 Thematic 3194 63.27% 33.07 57.8% -0.016 0.5872 -0.674
2 Archipelago 31 48.39% 37.39 80.65% 0.293 0.9592 0.12
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 22425 60.71% 28.77 70.24% 0.017 0.408 0.025
2 Coastline 2702 58.39% 29.07 72.76% -0.243 -0.1549 0.361
2 Fragment 641 62.44% 24.34 65.52% -0.28 -0.2144 0.019
2 Heart 345 65.75% 23.59 65.51% -0.652 -0.3801 -0.564
2 Opposite Shores 4680 52.72% 29.38 73.12% 0.097 0.5898 -0.356
2 Thematic 1862 54.9% 37.05 59.88% -0.527 -0.059 -0.426
2 Top to Top 814 59.64% 28.45 68.3% 0.138 0.4204 -0.731
3 Archipelago 17 70.59% 58.94 88.24% 0.321 -0.062 0.75
3 Coastline 75 56.76% 31.61 64.0% 0.631 -0.0084 0.643
3 Other 446 52.48% 27.87 71.08% 0.735 -0.3544 0.358
3 Round (Default) 10960 49.87% 31.17 73.97% -0.204 0.065 0.007
3 Sunrise 56 50.0% 27.75 75.0% 0.0 -0.2196 0.157
3 Thematic 502 52.81% 37.52 60.96% -0.306 -0.5299 -0.332
4 Archipelago 20 35.0% 41.95 75.0% 0.357 -0.4945 -1.139
4 Coastline 24 33.33% 30.42 83.33% -0.39 -0.382 0.051
4 Leaf 44 50.0% 30.95 84.09% 0.0 0.2406 0.0
4 Other 301 49.66% 30.12 77.41% -0.303 -0.7491 0.537
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 6 50.0% 23.33 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1797 43.99% 42.52 70.06% 0.442 0.5383 0.084
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8806 42.67% 32.96 77.71% 0.085 -0.052 0.376
5 Archipelago 10 70.0% 35.5 70.0% 0.0 -0.4166 -0.373
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.032 -0.4798 0.0
5 Other 152 39.6% 33.94 85.53% -0.062 0.2069 0.57
5 Thematic 24 45.83% 38.92 95.83% 0.087 -0.0198 1.046
6 Archipelago 8 12.5% 30.75 87.5% 0.008 -0.5071 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 34.0 0.0% -0.286 -0.7256 -0.212
6 Other 63 33.33% 26.97 76.19% -0.468 0.42 -0.763
6 Star 19 52.63% 37.05 57.89% -0.574 0.321 0.065
6 Thematic 103 33.33% 37.64 80.58% -0.24 0.1232 -0.399
6 Two Centers (Default) 188 25.53% 29.43 86.17% -0.36 0.0183 -0.206
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 46.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.8404 -0.373
7 Other 4 75.0% 36.5 75.0% 0.467 -0.4685 0.022

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5154 28.91 53.55% -1.745 0.0861 -0.542
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4259 30.67 56.3% -1.836 -0.1815 -0.116
All Things Weaken 1840 27.65 47.72% -1.824 0.1525 -0.647
Back Against the Wall 4197 29.66 53.59% -1.332 0.5267 -0.203
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5098 27.05 51.75% -1.122 0.8522 -0.571
Downward Spiral 15210 24.61 62.42% -1.663 0.2394 -0.327
Erosion of Will 4951 28.53 51.95% -1.934 0.1097 -0.551
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 556 33.88 78.24% -0.61 -0.0379 0.145
Memory Fades to Dust 15405 23.84 57.6% -1.491 0.4882 -0.566
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1906 28.66 56.19% -1.515 0.3765 -0.434
Promising Farmlands 5242 28.94 56.05% -1.352 0.687 -0.288
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 462 33.65 84.63% -0.319 0.1214 -0.08
Thriving Communities 1897 28.3 54.14% -1.745 0.2197 -0.4
Tipping Point 2510 28.31 51.67% 0.0 0.489 -0.564
Unnatural Proliferation 2111 29.54 52.91% -1.534 0.3719 -0.567
Untended Land Crumbles 1835 27.89 53.95% -1.899 0.1354 -0.562

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 39106 56.57% 27.92 70.94% -0.145 0.6229 -0.38
B 41683 55.3% 28.82 72.39% -0.113 0.5795 -0.266
C 40756 55.25% 29.18 72.46% -0.089 0.4754 -0.224
D 41134 54.12% 29.63 73.1% 0.008 0.7767 -0.013
E 8433 55.52% 30.62 72.05% -0.331 0.2684 -0.352
F 13464 53.72% 30.37 72.16% -0.457 0.2523 -0.238
G 13404 53.78% 30.71 72.9% 0.196 0.9217 -0.189
H 12272 54.93% 30.35 71.9% -0.11 0.5808 -0.309
East 5447 51.94% 38.56 63.85% -0.433 0.1897 -0.397
Northeast 3768 50.89% 39.77 65.31% 0.069 0.7505 -0.622
Northwest 3200 51.38% 39.7 64.75% 0.12 1.187 0.14
Southeast 644 49.38% 32.9 67.55% 0.354 1.0816 0.38
Southwest 638 51.49% 31.91 66.14% -0.482 0.4883 -0.054
West 4995 53.28% 37.75 62.46% -0.188 0.8158 -0.729

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7223 0.0% 16.25 61.93% -2.731 -0.7196 -2.067
Not Using Events or Tokens 33057 60.75% 22.99 71.81% -0.201 0.0136 0.04
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3941 25.85% 33.57 85.54% -0.286 -0.3799 0.374
Start of Game Growth 5132 28.68% 32.39 83.57% 0.209 -0.4989 -0.002
Unlimited Undo 12701 50.26% 31.72 76.97% 0.729 0.0296 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 11635 51.0% 25.76 76.73% -0.156 -0.2019 -0.236

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6962 100.0% 31.76 100.0% -0.172 -0.3062 0.037
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2013 100.0% 30.11 100.0% 0.072 -0.048 -0.465
Downpour Drenches the World 108 100.0% 35.74 100.0% 0.18 0.5292 0.536
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3216 100.0% 32.26 100.0% 0.384 -0.0368 0.19
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1830 100.0% 31.57 100.0% -0.315 -0.8773 -0.189
Finder of Paths Unseen 76 100.0% 34.05 100.0% -0.327 0.0739 -0.005
Fractured Days Split the Sky 559 100.0% 36.66 100.0% 0.434 0.4883 0.441
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 286 100.0% 32.47 100.0% -0.74 -0.7486 -0.074
Heart of the Wildfire 4235 100.0% 27.84 100.0% -0.292 -0.0658 -0.331
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5169 100.0% 33.73 100.0% 0.021 -0.5017 0.253
Lightning's Swift Strike 6144 106.29% 27.98 102.62% -0.192 0.0511 0.018
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 26 53.85% 34.19 73.08% 0.039 -0.815 -0.603
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 422 49.52% 37.81 79.15% 0.349 -0.2606 0.614
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 295 43.06% 33.28 77.63% -0.345 -0.7221 0.501
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 987 100.0% 32.74 100.0% 0.224 0.0064 -0.467
Many Minds Move as One 955 100.0% 34.28 100.0% 0.524 -0.0149 0.561
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 18636 100.0% 32.85 100.0% -0.107 -0.424 0.111
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1937 100.0% 31.23 100.0% 0.014 -0.0016 -0.118
River Surges in Sunlight 6464 103.4% 31.89 101.72% 0.152 0.2044 -0.022
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 397 47.59% 33.64 74.06% -0.528 -0.1701 -0.051
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 29 55.17% 31.41 72.41% -0.129 -0.3589 -1.371
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5246 100.0% 34.41 100.0% -0.048 -0.082 0.222
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5669 106.81% 28.18 103.35% -0.05 0.4174 0.926
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 6 83.33% 31.67 83.33% -0.286 -0.1883 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 34 44.12% 32.12 79.41% -0.023 -0.198 0.556
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 429 46.81% 29.94 74.59% 0.494 0.4345 -0.85
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 293 50.69% 30.37 75.09% -0.349 -0.1883 0.193
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3709 100.0% 32.84 100.0% 1.322 1.0198 0.385
Shifting Memory of Ages 279 100.0% 31.44 100.0% 0.251 0.29 -0.005
Shroud of Silent Mist 774 100.0% 29.89 100.0% -0.641 -0.3168 -0.157
Starlight Seeks its Form 237 100.0% 35.09 100.0% 0.258 0.0532 0.926
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1297 100.0% 35.8 100.0% -0.16 -0.346 -0.165
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1941 100.0% 34.46 100.0% 0.321 0.4054 0.642
Thunderspeaker 5728 100.0% 32.38 100.0% 0.229 0.198 -0.088
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1073 100.0% 29.3 100.0% 0.202 0.1579 -0.301
Vital Strength of the Earth 4578 101.9% 27.65 101.73% -0.132 0.6631 -0.325
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 12 41.67% 26.0 75.0% -0.084 0.3681 -0.257
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 188 57.45% 28.52 59.57% -0.052 0.9789 -0.587
Volcano Looming High 574 100.0% 29.57 100.0% -0.426 -0.3996 -0.732

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.55%
Dread Apparitions 86.51%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.6%
Predatory Nightmares 65.45%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6325 22.6 1.96%
II 24384 31.02 17.04%
III 39586 34.59 68.48%
IV 62557 37.83 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 124
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26434
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3529
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 61869
Lose: Invader deck ran out 156
Lose: Adversary condition 9669
Win: Sacrifice victory 469
Lose: Scenario condition 1331
Win: Scenario condition 1256
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26764
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1251

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.268 Win Model: -0.202

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.2 Win Model: 0.167
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 75790 60.9% 27.29 69.3%
2 33579 59.15% 29.22 70.1%
3 12053 49.78% 31.88 73.56%
4 10972 43.2% 33.85 76.39%
5 78 33.33% 31.1 75.64%
6 380 29.02% 31.43 82.89%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)