Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1250 61.53% 26.14 -1.527 61.28% -0.53 0.0358
Dahan Insurrection 4 1569 35.81% 48.88 9.089 61.38% -0.963 -0.5622
Despicable Theft 2 24 50.0% 33.29 2.375 79.17% -0.254 0.0203
Elemental Invocation 1 87 65.52% 27.64 -1.152 67.82% -0.406 0.0961
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3894 22.29% 38.21 3.176 67.93% -0.717 -0.352
Powers Long Forgotten 1 570 68.02% 31.05 0.461 61.05% -0.464 -0.0179
Rituals of Terror 3 546 75.93% 30.47 0.897 41.39% -1.452 -0.8069
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 323 82.35% 33.14 2.158 52.63% -0.729 -0.0822
Second Wave 0 4925 51.2% 28.5 -0.307 72.83% -0.648 -0.2185
The Great River 3 47 55.32% 31.77 1.514 48.94% -1.855 -0.3815
Ward the Shores 2 434 69.53% 28.01 -1.151 38.25% -1.644 -0.6122

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 61620 60.68% 26.97 -0.459 69.75% -0.955 -0.8687
1 Thematic 2826 62.95% 33.05 1.091 57.25% -1.158 -0.8807
2 Archipelago 10 50.0% 27.4 0.078 60.0% -0.913 -0.9063
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 19423 60.27% 28.54 -0.207 70.13% -0.436 -0.4098
2 Coastline 2329 58.37% 28.93 -0.091 72.69% -0.365 -0.3894
2 Fragment 558 63.36% 24.65 -1.785 65.23% -0.825 -0.602
2 Heart 298 67.01% 24.12 -1.983 66.78% -0.787 -0.6866
2 Opposite Shores 4099 52.55% 29.43 -0.214 72.99% -0.406 -0.3405
2 Thematic 1661 54.04% 37.13 2.053 60.26% -0.601 -0.6681
2 Top to Top 701 59.79% 28.56 -0.355 68.47% -0.483 -0.5523
3 Archipelago 2 100.0% 46.5 7.228 50.0% -0.331 0.4733
3 Coastline 54 60.38% 33.56 1.052 62.96% 0.301 0.1505
3 Other 396 51.73% 27.96 -0.997 71.72% -0.232 -0.0593
3 Round (Default) 9660 49.53% 31.27 0.367 74.12% 0.216 0.1769
3 Sunrise 46 54.55% 27.74 -1.202 73.91% 0.179 -0.0807
3 Thematic 425 52.49% 37.63 1.979 59.53% -0.068 -0.4343
4 Archipelago 3 0.0% 45.33 6.217 100.0% 0.51 1.0575
4 Coastline 21 28.57% 31.71 -0.278 85.71% 0.377 0.4965
4 Leaf 38 55.26% 31.58 0.371 81.58% 0.953 1.0245
4 Other 258 50.0% 31.12 -0.035 79.07% 0.765 0.696
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 4.203 100.0% 0.55 -0.2519
4 Snake 5 40.0% 24.0 -3.797 60.0% -0.311 -0.185
4 Thematic 1636 45.9% 39.44 2.333 68.7% 0.705 -0.292
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7846 43.17% 32.83 0.705 77.12% 0.835 0.8427
5 Archipelago 6 83.33% 30.0 -1.639 50.0% -0.201 0.9592
5 Other 89 43.82% 37.28 2.381 92.13% 1.822 1.3614
5 Thematic 15 46.67% 38.87 3.27 100.0% 1.617 -0.7749

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4497 28.74 -1.537 53.32% -1.999 0.0703
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3705 30.43 -0.676 55.68% -1.911 0.0014
All Things Weaken 1355 27.04 -2.26 47.16% -2.289 -0.13
Back Against the Wall 3672 29.65 -1.058 53.59% -1.999 0.0884
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4437 26.86 -2.521 51.34% -2.074 0.1485
Downward Spiral 13264 24.73 -2.297 62.55% -1.798 0.2233
Erosion of Will 4279 28.43 -1.706 52.04% -2.063 0.1443
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 405 33.42 1.118 78.27% -0.672 0.0068
Memory Fades to Dust 13407 23.83 -2.771 57.48% -2.053 0.1623
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1400 28.19 -1.581 55.0% -1.909 0.112
Promising Farmlands 4610 28.84 -1.52 56.05% -1.874 0.3337
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 353 34.27 1.605 83.85% -0.314 0.0978
Thriving Communities 1418 27.96 -1.655 53.81% -1.919 0.1691
Tipping Point 2509 28.32 -1.846 51.69% -2.039 0.1857
Unnatural Proliferation 1578 29.23 -1.088 53.11% -2.008 0.0723
Untended Land Crumbles 1356 28.32 -1.552 54.87% -1.883 0.2195

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 20278 60.26% 26.56 -0.813 69.26% 0.021 -0.6666
B 22313 57.87% 27.68 -0.323 71.32% 0.148 -0.6353
C 21424 57.64% 28.0 -0.136 71.08% 0.175 -0.8379
D 21771 55.84% 29.19 0.437 72.44% 0.24 -0.5378
E 3605 60.99% 29.76 0.114 69.71% 0.189 -0.7056
F 6244 56.3% 29.59 0.149 71.06% 0.162 -0.6785
G 6549 57.13% 29.84 0.221 70.61% 0.196 -0.6356
H 5638 58.97% 29.05 -0.072 69.88% 0.13 -0.7089
East 1416 51.21% 38.25 2.697 62.85% -0.152 -0.7284
Northeast 1655 55.99% 37.76 2.489 62.3% -0.084 -0.6089
Northwest 1297 57.23% 36.79 2.051 61.14% -0.055 -0.6502
Southeast 226 52.0% 32.62 0.164 63.72% -0.249 -0.8779
Southwest 215 59.53% 29.12 -1.489 61.86% -0.304 -0.5028
West 1397 55.12% 34.73 1.151 56.91% -0.338 -0.6649

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 6189 0.0% 16.23 -5.302 61.5% -2.571 -0.5185
Not Using Events or Tokens 28305 60.8% 23.07 -2.362 71.7% -0.223 -0.0084
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3481 26.21% 33.61 2.24 85.23% 0.644 -0.0427
Start of Game Growth 4494 28.53% 32.49 1.514 83.36% 0.207 -0.2621
Unlimited Undo 10926 50.59% 31.67 1.395 76.5% 0.421 -0.0019
Using Tokens but Not Events 10334 50.73% 25.67 -1.567 76.81% 0.028 -0.0228

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 6036 43.99% 30.72 0.203 75.66% -0.057 0.0469
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1661 50.71% 30.36 -0.269 71.1% -0.164 -0.2774
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2709 41.68% 32.29 0.824 81.17% 0.27 -0.1343
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1552 48.46% 31.78 0.388 75.39% 0.062 -0.2429
Fractured Days Split the Sky 419 48.07% 36.89 2.371 73.03% 0.031 0.3793
Heart of the Wildfire 3880 63.86% 27.93 -1.375 65.67% -0.316 0.0029
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4682 47.09% 33.63 1.007 75.42% 0.162 -0.181
Lightning's Swift Strike 6018 51.03% 28.82 -0.409 72.65% -0.186 0.0396
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 639 50.71% 33.1 0.662 75.43% 0.172 -0.1144
Many Minds Move as One 733 45.13% 34.76 1.693 82.26% 0.481 -0.052
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 16421 52.17% 32.96 1.367 73.7% 0.254 0.0298
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1670 50.77% 31.41 0.209 72.16% -0.063 -0.0484
River Surges in Sunlight 6054 50.16% 32.17 0.613 71.95% -0.176 -0.0557
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4729 47.76% 34.28 1.328 72.19% -0.009 0.0942
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5573 59.83% 28.23 -0.617 71.42% -0.133 0.2713
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3337 48.95% 32.47 0.493 74.08% -0.011 -0.1227
Shifting Memory of Ages 73 58.9% 32.48 0.386 72.6% 0.067 0.1918
Shroud of Silent Mist 438 57.8% 30.2 -0.403 71.46% -0.223 -0.1668
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 997 53.68% 31.33 -0.12 70.61% -0.014 -0.0735
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1610 42.17% 34.96 1.522 77.95% 0.209 0.3696
Thunderspeaker 5051 48.74% 32.29 0.831 73.21% -0.032 -0.0085
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 893 66.25% 29.2 -0.976 64.61% -0.222 -0.2495
Vital Strength of the Earth 4259 49.25% 27.75 -1.202 70.3% -0.379 0.465
Volcano Looming High 337 58.93% 30.35 -0.592 67.36% -0.208 -0.1971

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.68%
Dread Apparitions 86.76%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.71%
Predatory Nightmares 65.63%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5488 22.37 1.75%
II 20987 30.88 17.15%
III 34121 34.39 68.51%
IV 53432 37.55 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 63
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15361
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2047
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 36967
Lose: Invader deck ran out 138
Lose: Adversary condition 8337
Win: Sacrifice victory 395
Lose: Scenario condition 1206
Win: Scenario condition 1128
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22977
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1113

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.156 Win Model: -0.2

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.295 Win Model: -0.404
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 64493 60.79% 27.24 69.2%
2 29140 58.77% 29.09 70.02%
3 10554 49.77% 31.42 73.49%
4 9841 43.71% 33.87 75.85%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)