Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 33.33% 25.9 100.0% 0.309 0.8049 0.0
Blitz 0 1037 62.75% 26.76 59.5% -0.804 -0.3612 -0.635
Dahan Insurrection 4 1221 36.43% 48.4 60.61% -0.635 -0.5374 0.079
Despicable Theft 2 54 57.41% 33.48 70.37% -0.49 0.009 -0.884
Elemental Invocation 1 175 65.71% 28.63 66.29% -0.115 0.4311 -0.835
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3050 22.39% 39.36 69.61% -0.696 -0.4649 0.152
Powers Long Forgotten 1 415 65.94% 30.67 59.52% -0.197 0.2106 -0.799
Rituals of Terror 3 507 68.46% 46.32 46.75% -0.791 -1.0274 0.796
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 245 83.67% 33.96 52.65% -0.889 -0.663 -0.635
Second Wave 0 3910 49.84% 28.34 74.02% -0.514 0.1783 -0.335
The Great River 3 63 58.73% 31.24 46.03% -0.166 1.4153 -1.161
Varied Terrains 2 13 76.92% 32.69 61.54% -0.236 0.5501 0.177
Ward the Shores 2 347 73.7% 26.54 35.73% 0.587 1.4679 -1.253

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5285 28.95 53.64% -1.697 0.2735 -0.53
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4360 30.7 56.15% -1.728 0.0501 -0.125
All Things Weaken 1958 27.77 47.5% -2.116 -0.0668 -0.667
Back Against the Wall 4303 29.67 53.54% -1.941 -0.0016 -0.201
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5226 27.07 51.86% -1.816 0.3119 -0.545
Downward Spiral 15646 24.61 62.35% -1.798 0.1636 -0.302
Erosion of Will 5063 28.57 51.95% -1.766 0.3159 -0.575
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 590 33.95 78.14% -0.831 -0.3291 0.127
Memory Fades to Dust 15811 23.86 57.59% -1.967 0.1739 -0.548
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2040 28.68 55.83% -1.899 0.0821 -0.482
Promising Farmlands 5382 29.03 56.24% -1.406 0.6155 -0.238
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 484 33.78 85.12% 0.501 0.9975 0.003
Thriving Communities 2000 28.43 54.25% -1.442 0.6171 -0.377
Tipping Point 2510 28.31 51.67% 0.0 0.0 -0.556
Unnatural Proliferation 2230 29.55 53.23% -1.779 0.1778 -0.507
Untended Land Crumbles 1951 27.99 53.72% -2.004 0.0293 -0.533

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 40103 56.56% 27.94 70.87% -0.296 0.4403 -0.407
B 42751 55.32% 28.82 72.31% -0.127 0.5705 -0.305
C 41862 55.2% 29.21 72.45% 0.145 0.615 -0.257
D 42117 54.07% 29.63 73.11% 0.157 0.8661 -0.028
E 8988 55.03% 30.71 72.13% -0.15 0.3945 -0.342
F 14050 53.65% 30.45 72.14% 0.146 0.8073 -0.228
G 14012 53.72% 30.68 72.82% -0.005 0.6263 -0.214
H 12827 54.84% 30.36 71.95% 0.04 0.7043 -0.314
East 5559 51.83% 38.65 63.95% -0.152 0.5101 -0.395
Northeast 3844 50.87% 39.94 65.56% 0.004 0.6638 -0.612
Northwest 3260 51.32% 39.97 65.0% 1.713 2.3235 0.224
Southeast 682 48.68% 32.87 67.3% -0.745 -0.2135 0.372
Southwest 676 51.56% 31.71 65.38% 0.484 1.4528 -0.065
West 5100 53.21% 37.85 62.43% -1.322 -0.516 -0.715

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7446 0.0% 16.21 61.59% -2.929 -0.6999 -2.072
Not Using Events or Tokens 34091 60.83% 23.0 71.73% 0.03 0.2566 0.029
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4036 25.81% 33.65 85.56% 1.074 0.0941 0.621
Start of Game Growth 5274 28.62% 32.45 83.56% 0.364 -0.0932 0.053
Unlimited Undo 13079 50.12% 31.69 77.03% 0.471 -0.0801 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 11993 51.14% 25.7 76.45% -0.355 -0.2 -0.262

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.5%
Dread Apparitions 86.43%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.52%
Predatory Nightmares 65.31%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6515 22.65 1.98%
II 25155 31.08 16.99%
III 40830 34.66 68.55%
IV 64459 37.91 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 129
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27287
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3634
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 63753
Lose: Invader deck ran out 160
Lose: Adversary condition 9958
Win: Sacrifice victory 485
Lose: Scenario condition 1376
Win: Scenario condition 1290
Lose: Blight pool ran out 27601
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1286

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.21 Win Model: 0.189
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 78319 60.84% 27.31 69.33%
2 34527 59.14% 29.23 70.09%
3 12372 49.87% 31.99 73.5%
4 11184 43.16% 33.83 76.26%
5 98 34.74% 30.78 73.47%
6 459 26.91% 31.97 83.44%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)