Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
112475	57.7%	28.66	70.42%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	44749	45.68%	19.62	0.000	82.23%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	577	44.02%	28.72	0.473	79.9%	-0.495	-0.2115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	345	57.43%	31.23	1.885	73.62%	-0.585	-0.1746
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	423	77.73%	31.56	2.18	53.19%	-1.373	-0.4963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	453	79.42%	32.13	2.557	47.02%	-1.623	-0.3768
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	241	92.95%	34.74	4.067	39.42%	-1.708	-0.2061
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	106	89.62%	35.6	4.551	33.02%	-2.05	-0.0966
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	529	90.36%	33.6	3.377	22.31%	-2.746	-0.7027
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	4653	43.66%	25.55	-0.469	87.06%	0.223	0.2654
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	2917	49.01%	30.24	1.818	85.81%	0.252	0.2335

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	1234	61.27%	26.13	-1.547	61.26%	-0.542	0.0277
Dahan Insurrection	4	1545	35.52%	48.95	9.133	61.62%	-0.961	-0.5629
Despicable Theft	2	22	50.0%	32.86	2.289	81.82%	-0.202	0.0671
Elemental Invocation	1	86	65.12%	27.63	-1.208	67.44%	-0.441	0.0232
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3856	22.31%	38.21	3.18	67.92%	-0.714	-0.3472
Powers Long Forgotten	1	565	68.09%	31.07	0.477	61.06%	-0.461	-0.0166
Rituals of Terror	3	542	75.93%	30.51	0.904	41.33%	-1.453	-0.8075
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	322	82.3%	33.22	2.189	52.8%	-0.72	-0.075
Second Wave	0	4878	51.23%	28.52	-0.297	72.8%	-0.647	-0.2178
The Great River	3	45	57.78%	31.69	1.491	48.89%	-1.817	-0.3532
Ward the Shores	2	430	69.48%	28.05	-1.12	38.14%	-1.645	-0.6115

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	60762	60.68%	26.95	-0.462	69.8%	-0.919	-0.7468
1	Thematic	2784	62.78%	33.06	1.111	57.4%	-1.13	-0.7683
2	Archipelago	7	42.86%	23.57	-2.017	42.86%	-1.168	-0.941
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	19135	60.23%	28.54	-0.208	70.19%	-0.394	-0.342
2	Coastline	2297	58.23%	28.95	-0.081	72.79%	-0.321	-0.3135
2	Fragment	551	63.44%	24.69	-1.761	65.52%	-0.769	-0.5129
2	Heart	296	66.78%	24.15	-1.975	66.89%	-0.741	-0.5995
2	Opposite Shores	4029	52.43%	29.45	-0.206	73.07%	-0.367	-0.2764
2	Thematic	1646	54.17%	37.14	2.043	60.02%	-0.577	-0.6189
2	Top to Top	696	59.63%	28.46	-0.399	68.39%	-0.459	-0.4897

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	4429	28.68	-1.571	53.24%	-2.007	0.0665
Aid From Lesser Spirits	3664	30.43	-0.679	55.76%	-1.909	0.009
All Things Weaken	1313	27.12	-2.229	47.52%	-2.28	-0.1093
Back Against the Wall	3632	29.66	-1.06	53.5%	-2.002	0.0893
Disintegrating Ecosystem	4371	26.8	-2.549	51.25%	-2.079	0.146
Downward Spiral	13113	24.75	-2.287	62.73%	-1.794	0.2288
Erosion of Will	4222	28.48	-1.681	52.18%	-2.054	0.1546
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	390	33.44	1.138	77.95%	-0.669	0.0169
Memory Fades to Dust	13243	23.8	-2.782	57.48%	-2.056	0.163
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1353	28.11	-1.601	55.21%	-1.901	0.1233
Promising Farmlands	4556	28.89	-1.504	56.23%	-1.866	0.3477
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	337	34.47	1.693	83.98%	-0.307	0.1025
Thriving Communities	1375	27.95	-1.649	54.11%	-1.906	0.1884
Tipping Point	2509	28.32	-1.848	51.69%	-2.038	0.1879
Unnatural Proliferation	1535	29.21	-1.11	52.96%	-2.021	0.0656
Untended Land Crumbles	1315	28.36	-1.531	54.83%	-1.885	0.2212

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	20061	60.23%	26.55	-0.817	69.27%	0.017	-0.7436
B	22045	57.86%	27.68	-0.321	71.4%	0.148	-0.709
C	21166	57.68%	27.98	-0.141	71.1%	0.172	-0.9169
D	21506	55.84%	29.18	0.437	72.44%	0.235	-0.6154
E	3499	60.77%	29.72	0.1	69.71%	0.182	-0.7829
East	1408	51.22%	38.3	2.718	62.93%	-0.136	-0.7852
F	6107	56.2%	29.61	0.16	71.15%	0.162	-0.7518
G	6408	57.03%	29.84	0.228	70.76%	0.197	-0.7084
H	5538	58.86%	29.05	-0.069	69.92%	0.126	-0.7882
Northeast	1633	55.76%	37.8	2.52	62.58%	-0.076	-0.6746
Northwest	1285	57.22%	36.74	2.022	60.78%	-0.057	-0.7272
Southeast	219	52.75%	32.07	-0.036	63.01%	-0.271	-0.9766
Southwest	212	58.96%	29.24	-1.438	62.26%	-0.298	-0.5714
West	1388	55.26%	34.76	1.163	56.84%	-0.325	-0.724

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	6130	0.0%	16.25	-5.294	61.55%	-2.566	-0.5097
Not Using Events or Tokens	27947	60.74%	23.07	-2.358	71.8%	-0.22	-0.0042
Skip Initial Invader Actions	3437	26.16%	33.66	2.245	85.19%	0.648	-0.0388
Start of Game Growth	4439	28.59%	32.52	1.518	83.24%	0.2	-0.2706
Unlimited Undo	10748	50.86%	31.69	1.406	76.32%	0.416	-0.0035
Using Tokens but Not Events	10241	50.82%	25.68	-1.562	76.74%	0.028	-0.0243

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	5979	44.0%	30.71	0.198	75.65%	-0.071	0.0428
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	1644	50.81%	30.37	-0.268	70.86%	-0.186	-0.2917
Eyes Watch From the Trees	2656	41.18%	32.33	0.842	81.29%	0.256	-0.1365
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1524	48.4%	31.66	0.342	75.39%	0.048	-0.2432
Fractured Days Split the Sky	411	47.54%	37.04	2.451	73.48%	0.061	0.4144
Heart of the Wildfire	3841	63.89%	27.96	-1.361	65.66%	-0.327	0.0015
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	4643	46.92%	33.6	0.996	75.43%	0.143	-0.1869
Lightning's Swift Strike	5952	50.99%	28.87	-0.391	72.7%	-0.2	0.036
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	617	50.98%	33.1	0.651	75.04%	0.143	-0.1445
Many Minds Move as One	722	44.99%	34.76	1.676	82.27%	0.456	-0.0748

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	679	2.903	26.925	70.84%
Animated Wrackroot	908	2.98	29.298	75.33%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	1839	3.633	31.762	75.8%
Birds Cry Warning	667	3.802	31.481	72.71%
Blood Draws Predators	222	3.806	30.252	71.62%
Call of the Dahan Ways	8443	2.674	28.164	74.84%
Call To Bloodshed	1217	2.473	26.61	72.14%
Call to Ferocity	494	3.577	31.107	72.67%
Call to Guard	1150	3.402	29.923	74.96%
Call To Isolation	3159	3.044	28.787	75.78%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	1660	1.933	23.606	70.84%
Angry Bears	379	3.124	29.792	76.25%
Bargains of Power and Protection	427	4.55	30.119	63.23%
Blazing Renewal	1432	3.998	27.758	63.06%
Bloodwrack Plague	2025	4.119	29.695	67.46%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	1084	3.657	28.614	67.53%
Cleansing Floods	1294	2.001	22.844	66.15%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	2188	3.484	30.102	74.09%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	1239	2.775	24.943	66.34%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	692	5.107	35.447	70.23%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams	26.67%
Dread Apparitions	86.8%
Dreams Of the Dahan	87.71%
Predatory Nightmares	65.72%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	5418	22.35	1.75%
II	20664	30.84	17.11%
III	33665	34.35	68.59%
IV	52728	37.52	99.53%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	8208
Lose: Blight pool ran out	22640
Lose: Invader deck ran out	134
Lose: Scenario condition	1194
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1097
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	62
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	1989
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	15083
Win: Sacrifice victory	388
Win: Scenario condition	1115
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	36269

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.163 Win Model: -0.199

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	1773	26.25%	23.5	86.91%	90.36%
-2	497	24.14%	24.02	86.32%	88.48%
-1	1009	29.61%	21.15	81.76%	86.29%
0	39951	46.41%	19.04	82.23%	83.76%
1	10775	45.24%	24.08	84.48%	80.86%
2	6567	49.85%	28.4	82.58%	77.59%
3	5470	60.5%	30.1	74.83%	73.93%
4	6815	58.86%	34.94	74.86%	69.91%
5	4619	62.69%	33.89	58.32%	65.56%
6	7692	72.06%	37.12	62.49%	60.93%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.296 Win Model: -0.395

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	63588	60.78%	27.22	69.26%
2	28720	58.71%	29.09	70.07%
3	10427	49.76%	31.4	73.45%
4	9740	43.74%	33.89	75.76%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.