Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 23 30.43% 26.0 100.0% 0.187 -0.1611 0.0
Blitz 0 1047 62.43% 26.8 59.6% -0.618 -0.1101 -0.65
Dahan Insurrection 4 1235 36.26% 48.35 60.57% -0.864 -0.7796 0.067
Despicable Theft 2 55 58.18% 33.11 69.09% -0.615 -0.1894 -0.888
Elemental Invocation 1 176 65.91% 28.72 66.48% -0.363 0.2541 -0.839
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3125 22.72% 39.58 69.38% -0.62 -0.4463 0.154
Powers Long Forgotten 1 421 65.95% 30.6 59.38% -0.795 -0.2602 -0.813
Rituals of Terror 3 512 68.18% 46.22 46.48% -0.372 -0.5841 0.812
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 247 83.4% 34.06 53.04% -0.622 -0.4 -0.632
Second Wave 0 3952 49.74% 28.37 74.04% -0.436 0.0838 -0.351
The Great River 3 63 58.73% 31.24 46.03% 0.116 1.8014 -1.194
Varied Terrains 2 14 78.57% 32.36 64.29% -0.25 0.4387 0.184
Ward the Shores 2 351 73.43% 26.66 36.18% 0.459 1.3081 -1.254

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 75723 60.69% 27.07 69.88% 0.705 1.2418 -0.187
1 Thematic 3302 62.92% 33.18 57.78% 0.06 1.0291 -0.55
2 Archipelago 40 47.5% 39.58 75.0% 0.045 1.0882 -0.208
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 23273 60.63% 28.8 70.3% 0.399 0.8159 0.126
2 Coastline 2824 58.52% 29.14 72.49% 0.544 0.6525 0.441
2 Fragment 662 62.72% 24.15 65.26% 0.07 0.1489 0.072
2 Heart 364 65.7% 23.56 65.11% 0.141 0.5575 -0.346
2 Opposite Shores 4815 52.81% 29.31 73.06% 0.143 0.5611 -0.259
2 Thematic 1919 54.88% 37.09 59.87% -0.072 0.8021 -0.314
2 Top to Top 835 59.47% 28.38 68.38% 0.318 0.4202 -0.674
3 Archipelago 21 61.9% 51.52 80.95% -1.148 -0.9744 0.819
3 Coastline 79 58.97% 31.41 64.56% 0.789 0.8467 0.649
3 Other 461 52.74% 27.65 70.5% -0.624 -1.4741 0.323
3 Round (Default) 11346 50.02% 31.24 73.89% 0.462 0.6581 0.026
3 Sunrise 56 50.0% 27.75 75.0% 0.0 -0.1132 0.151
3 Thematic 523 52.99% 37.91 61.19% -0.475 -0.0643 -0.218
4 Archipelago 29 29.63% 35.59 62.07% -0.957 -0.8033 -1.147
4 Coastline 24 33.33% 30.42 83.33% 0.079 -0.4522 0.058
4 Leaf 45 48.89% 31.16 84.44% 0.0 0.103 0.0
4 Other 313 50.0% 29.88 77.64% -0.448 -1.0162 0.631
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 6 50.0% 23.33 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1824 43.66% 42.89 70.23% 0.526 0.6674 0.052
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9057 42.56% 32.93 77.46% -0.374 -0.1179 0.309
5 Archipelago 10 70.0% 35.5 70.0% 0.0 -0.3095 -0.367
5 Coastline 7 0.0% 27.57 100.0% 0.173 -0.4978 -0.387
5 Other 175 40.35% 33.91 84.0% 0.211 -0.549 0.67
5 Thematic 26 46.15% 39.92 96.15% 0.138 -0.2671 1.011
6 Archipelago 9 11.11% 34.11 88.89% 0.0 0.031 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 34.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.8503 -0.188
6 Other 83 30.12% 27.93 79.52% 0.394 0.1429 -0.61
6 Star 23 52.17% 38.39 65.22% 0.039 1.0239 0.252
6 Thematic 124 34.15% 37.73 79.84% -0.115 -0.1279 -0.129
6 Two Centers (Default) 248 22.76% 30.12 86.29% 0.048 0.4945 -0.349
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 51.0 66.67% 0.134 0.4816 -0.437
7 Other 5 60.0% 34.8 80.0% -0.71 -0.9591 -0.422

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5321 28.97 53.66% -1.622 0.3375 -0.541
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4387 30.72 56.12% -2.029 -0.2993 -0.14
All Things Weaken 2001 27.81 47.33% -2.119 -0.052 -0.705
Back Against the Wall 4336 29.69 53.6% -1.497 0.4021 -0.203
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5273 27.11 51.94% -1.609 0.4867 -0.567
Downward Spiral 15757 24.62 62.39% -1.803 0.07 -0.3
Erosion of Will 5107 28.55 51.87% -2.129 -0.0183 -0.602
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 596 33.98 78.02% -0.95 -0.3918 0.166
Memory Fades to Dust 15941 23.86 57.62% -1.958 0.1082 -0.549
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2076 28.62 55.64% -2.098 -0.19 -0.508
Promising Farmlands 5416 29.02 56.22% -1.36 0.6642 -0.241
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 502 33.62 85.26% -0.058 0.3597 -0.032
Thriving Communities 2035 28.45 54.25% -1.763 0.2958 -0.384
Tipping Point 2510 28.31 51.67% 0.0 0.0 -0.569
Unnatural Proliferation 2271 29.58 53.28% -1.859 0.0795 -0.509
Untended Land Crumbles 1996 28.09 53.71% -1.969 0.045 -0.526

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 40431 56.56% 27.93 70.89% -0.278 0.4627 -0.392
B 43090 55.29% 28.82 72.33% -0.092 0.6089 -0.298
C 42231 55.17% 29.21 72.45% 0.013 0.4864 -0.264
D 42419 54.06% 29.64 73.13% 0.241 0.9297 -0.024
E 9175 54.94% 30.69 72.14% 0.058 0.619 -0.323
F 14240 53.59% 30.44 72.11% 0.051 0.7007 -0.225
G 14202 53.59% 30.68 72.86% 0.024 0.6356 -0.211
H 13004 54.75% 30.36 71.95% -0.052 0.5993 -0.301
East 5623 51.78% 38.7 63.95% 0.134 0.733 -0.432
Northeast 3879 50.78% 39.97 65.61% -0.161 0.5184 -0.644
Northwest 3287 51.23% 40.04 65.07% 1.024 1.5001 0.211
Southeast 696 48.41% 33.1 67.39% -0.619 0.1182 0.355
Southwest 691 51.45% 31.93 65.41% 0.123 1.0728 -0.027
West 5154 53.04% 37.94 62.5% -0.591 0.1397 -0.679

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7508 0.0% 16.21 61.59% -2.825 -0.6337 -1.94
Not Using Events or Tokens 34367 60.81% 23.01 71.79% 0.107 0.3421 0.024
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4065 25.93% 33.75 85.56% 1.064 -0.1089 0.725
Start of Game Growth 5325 28.78% 32.49 83.59% 0.498 0.0656 0.055
Unlimited Undo 13191 50.24% 31.71 76.96% 0.089 -0.3898 0.375
Using Tokens but Not Events 12105 51.21% 25.67 76.34% -0.36 -0.2083 -0.266

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7200 100.0% 31.84 100.0% 0.211 0.1064 0.031
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2111 100.0% 30.1 100.0% -0.34 -0.5548 -0.433
Downpour Drenches the World 193 100.0% 33.28 100.0% -0.582 -0.2662 0.383
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3365 100.0% 32.34 100.0% 0.174 -0.3677 0.197
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1899 100.0% 31.49 100.0% 0.41 -0.1001 -0.192
Finder of Paths Unseen 143 100.0% 35.69 100.0% -0.473 -0.0977 -0.159
Fractured Days Split the Sky 587 100.0% 36.69 100.0% -0.408 -0.3657 0.507
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 331 100.0% 32.72 100.0% -0.472 -0.5746 0.02
Heart of the Wildfire 4328 100.0% 27.82 100.0% -0.203 0.1122 -0.299
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5302 100.0% 33.76 100.0% 0.054 -0.4718 0.233
Lightning's Swift Strike 6318 106.74% 27.88 103.09% 0.155 0.5 0.016
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 59 58.93% 35.37 69.49% 0.2 -0.6103 -0.361
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 459 49.78% 37.13 77.12% -1.163 -1.6522 0.565
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 322 44.13% 33.68 77.64% 0.194 -0.3931 0.528
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1098 100.0% 32.8 100.0% -0.035 -0.1133 -0.463
Many Minds Move as One 1026 100.0% 34.21 100.0% 0.012 -0.5925 0.489
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 19194 100.0% 32.85 100.0% 0.355 0.2138 0.125
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2021 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.221 -0.2263 -0.116
River Surges in Sunlight 6605 103.89% 31.86 102.04% 0.134 0.0142 -0.067
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 424 47.39% 33.5 74.06% 0.003 0.4199 -0.165
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 81 55.7% 36.8 69.14% 0.533 0.1572 -0.788
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5375 100.0% 34.47 100.0% 0.552 0.4353 0.22
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5781 107.94% 28.19 103.63% -0.089 0.3693 0.947
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 23 45.45% 32.7 73.91% -0.11 -0.0827 -0.57
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 80 38.75% 35.11 80.0% 0.099 0.2119 0.78
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 461 46.15% 30.46 76.14% 1.194 1.2739 -0.69
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 314 50.0% 30.54 75.16% 0.073 0.1294 0.276
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3805 100.0% 32.88 100.0% 0.873 0.6899 0.387
Shifting Memory of Ages 332 100.0% 31.56 100.0% -0.123 0.0652 -0.188
Shroud of Silent Mist 889 100.0% 30.13 100.0% 0.727 0.8892 -0.133
Starlight Seeks its Form 308 100.0% 34.67 100.0% -0.367 -0.4444 0.947
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1394 100.0% 36.09 100.0% -0.196 -0.4553 -0.238
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2021 100.0% 34.28 100.0% 0.049 0.1408 0.612
Thunderspeaker 5877 100.0% 32.34 100.0% -0.168 -0.2213 -0.147
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1137 100.0% 29.55 100.0% 0.567 0.2918 -0.285
Vital Strength of the Earth 4681 102.26% 27.62 101.97% -0.289 0.5455 -0.409
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 33 36.36% 32.58 72.73% 0.056 0.6019 -0.172
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 200 57.5% 28.49 58.5% -0.909 0.2639 -0.64
Volcano Looming High 643 100.0% 29.58 100.0% -0.433 -0.4627 -0.703

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.45%
Dread Apparitions 86.4%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.5%
Predatory Nightmares 65.26%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6581 22.68 1.98%
II 25400 31.11 17.0%
III 41192 34.69 68.59%
IV 65118 37.95 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27546
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3671
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 64404
Lose: Invader deck ran out 161
Lose: Adversary condition 10070
Win: Sacrifice victory 491
Lose: Scenario condition 1401
Win: Scenario condition 1301
Lose: Blight pool ran out 27823
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1293

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.432 Win Model: -0.207

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.161 Win Model: 0.129
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 79139 60.8% 27.34 69.36%
2 34814 59.12% 29.24 70.11%
3 12480 49.9% 31.99 73.48%
4 11268 43.07% 33.81 76.21%
5 108 37.5% 32.53 74.07%
6 482 26.51% 31.89 84.02%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-31 03:36:05 (Pacific Time)