Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 21 33.33% 25.9 100.0% 0.309 0.8049 0.0
Blitz 0 1037 62.75% 26.76 59.5% -0.804 -0.3612 -0.635
Dahan Insurrection 4 1221 36.43% 48.4 60.61% -0.635 -0.5374 0.079
Despicable Theft 2 54 57.41% 33.48 70.37% -0.49 0.009 -0.884
Elemental Invocation 1 175 65.71% 28.63 66.29% -0.115 0.4311 -0.835
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3050 22.39% 39.36 69.61% -0.696 -0.4649 0.152
Powers Long Forgotten 1 415 65.94% 30.67 59.52% -0.197 0.2106 -0.799
Rituals of Terror 3 507 68.46% 46.32 46.75% -0.791 -1.0274 0.796
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 245 83.67% 33.96 52.65% -0.889 -0.663 -0.635
Second Wave 0 3910 49.84% 28.34 74.02% -0.514 0.1783 -0.335
The Great River 3 63 58.73% 31.24 46.03% -0.166 1.4153 -1.161
Varied Terrains 2 13 76.92% 32.69 61.54% -0.236 0.5501 0.177
Ward the Shores 2 347 73.7% 26.54 35.73% 0.587 1.4679 -1.253

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 74965 60.73% 27.05 69.84% 0.609 1.2718 -0.213
1 Thematic 3246 63.23% 33.06 57.83% 0.049 1.1062 -0.552
2 Archipelago 39 46.15% 38.51 74.36% -0.428 0.0427 -0.489
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 23075 60.67% 28.81 70.28% 0.383 0.9014 0.125
2 Coastline 2802 58.66% 29.15 72.45% 0.249 0.4494 0.441
2 Fragment 658 62.48% 24.14 65.35% -0.461 -0.1626 0.075
2 Heart 361 65.69% 23.55 64.82% -0.229 0.232 -0.363
2 Opposite Shores 4777 52.75% 29.33 73.1% 0.157 0.6953 -0.253
2 Thematic 1903 54.98% 37.01 59.8% -0.346 0.4362 -0.361
2 Top to Top 829 59.41% 28.36 68.28% -0.157 -0.0295 -0.672
3 Archipelago 20 65.0% 53.35 85.0% -0.473 -0.691 0.812
3 Coastline 79 58.97% 31.41 64.56% 0.58 0.0729 0.663
3 Other 458 52.87% 27.7 70.52% -0.534 -1.1981 0.339
3 Round (Default) 11245 49.98% 31.24 73.92% 0.101 0.406 0.061
3 Sunrise 56 50.0% 27.75 75.0% 0.0 0.46 0.151
3 Thematic 517 52.83% 37.83 61.12% 0.085 0.2932 -0.223
4 Archipelago 29 29.63% 35.59 62.07% -1.104 -1.141 -1.128
4 Coastline 24 33.33% 30.42 83.33% 0.161 0.124 0.067
4 Leaf 45 48.89% 31.16 84.44% 0.0 -0.1019 0.0
4 Other 312 49.83% 29.97 77.88% 0.637 -0.0766 0.647
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 6 50.0% 23.33 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1818 43.81% 42.86 70.19% 0.887 0.9912 0.065
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8980 42.64% 32.96 77.54% -0.149 -0.0717 0.357
5 Archipelago 10 70.0% 35.5 70.0% 0.0 -0.0975 -0.362
5 Coastline 7 0.0% 27.57 100.0% 0.098 -0.4892 -0.387
5 Other 170 40.12% 33.73 84.12% 0.332 -0.1844 0.603
5 Thematic 25 44.0% 38.48 96.0% 0.023 -0.2647 1.025
6 Archipelago 9 11.11% 34.11 88.89% 0.144 -0.0021 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 34.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.634 -0.198
6 Other 79 31.65% 27.9 78.48% 0.405 0.4496 -0.607
6 Star 22 54.55% 39.09 63.64% 0.477 1.247 0.255
6 Thematic 118 34.19% 37.1 79.66% -0.581 -0.3404 -0.165
6 Two Centers (Default) 233 22.41% 30.27 85.84% 0.009 0.2005 -0.306
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 46.0 50.0% 0.0 0.1488 -0.419
7 Other 5 60.0% 34.8 80.0% -0.756 -1.2398 -0.4

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5285 28.95 53.64% -1.697 0.2735 -0.53
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4360 30.7 56.15% -1.728 0.0501 -0.125
All Things Weaken 1958 27.77 47.5% -2.116 -0.0668 -0.667
Back Against the Wall 4303 29.67 53.54% -1.941 -0.0016 -0.201
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5226 27.07 51.86% -1.816 0.3119 -0.545
Downward Spiral 15646 24.61 62.35% -1.798 0.1636 -0.302
Erosion of Will 5063 28.57 51.95% -1.766 0.3159 -0.575
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 590 33.95 78.14% -0.831 -0.3291 0.127
Memory Fades to Dust 15811 23.86 57.59% -1.967 0.1739 -0.548
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2040 28.68 55.83% -1.899 0.0821 -0.482
Promising Farmlands 5382 29.03 56.24% -1.406 0.6155 -0.238
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 484 33.78 85.12% 0.501 0.9975 0.003
Thriving Communities 2000 28.43 54.25% -1.442 0.6171 -0.377
Tipping Point 2510 28.31 51.67% 0.0 0.0 -0.556
Unnatural Proliferation 2230 29.55 53.23% -1.779 0.1778 -0.507
Untended Land Crumbles 1951 27.99 53.72% -2.004 0.0293 -0.533

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 40103 56.56% 27.94 70.87% -0.296 0.4403 -0.407
B 42751 55.32% 28.82 72.31% -0.127 0.5705 -0.305
C 41862 55.2% 29.21 72.45% 0.145 0.615 -0.257
D 42117 54.07% 29.63 73.11% 0.157 0.8661 -0.028
E 8988 55.03% 30.71 72.13% -0.15 0.3945 -0.342
F 14050 53.65% 30.45 72.14% 0.146 0.8073 -0.228
G 14012 53.72% 30.68 72.82% -0.005 0.6263 -0.214
H 12827 54.84% 30.36 71.95% 0.04 0.7043 -0.314
East 5559 51.83% 38.65 63.95% -0.152 0.5101 -0.395
Northeast 3844 50.87% 39.94 65.56% 0.004 0.6638 -0.612
Northwest 3260 51.32% 39.97 65.0% 1.713 2.3235 0.224
Southeast 682 48.68% 32.87 67.3% -0.745 -0.2135 0.372
Southwest 676 51.56% 31.71 65.38% 0.484 1.4528 -0.065
West 5100 53.21% 37.85 62.43% -1.322 -0.516 -0.715

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7446 0.0% 16.21 61.59% -2.929 -0.6999 -2.072
Not Using Events or Tokens 34091 60.83% 23.0 71.73% 0.03 0.2566 0.029
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4036 25.81% 33.65 85.56% 1.074 0.0941 0.621
Start of Game Growth 5274 28.62% 32.45 83.56% 0.364 -0.0932 0.053
Unlimited Undo 13079 50.12% 31.69 77.03% 0.471 -0.0801 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 11993 51.14% 25.7 76.45% -0.355 -0.2 -0.262

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 7137 100.0% 31.83 100.0% 0.027 -0.0481 0.016
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2082 100.0% 30.16 100.0% -0.428 -0.6523 -0.448
Downpour Drenches the World 167 100.0% 34.65 100.0% 0.099 0.3635 0.46
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3324 100.0% 32.34 100.0% 0.477 -0.0263 0.215
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1882 100.0% 31.55 100.0% -0.181 -0.7679 -0.204
Finder of Paths Unseen 127 100.0% 35.49 100.0% -0.139 0.2166 0.001
Fractured Days Split the Sky 581 100.0% 36.71 100.0% -0.045 0.0372 0.489
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 316 100.0% 32.68 100.0% -0.679 -0.7739 0.003
Heart of the Wildfire 4301 100.0% 27.84 100.0% -0.206 0.1994 -0.313
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5260 100.0% 33.75 100.0% 0.071 -0.5327 0.23
Lightning's Swift Strike 6271 106.59% 27.89 103.0% -0.616 -0.2515 -0.011
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 49 57.45% 36.9 71.43% 0.19 -0.5592 -0.327
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 448 50.34% 37.09 77.23% -1.076 -1.6397 0.544
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 318 44.05% 33.71 77.36% -0.275 -0.7691 0.504
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1075 100.0% 32.75 100.0% 0.036 -0.1156 -0.511
Many Minds Move as One 1008 100.0% 34.27 100.0% 0.773 0.1866 0.495
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 19086 100.0% 32.84 100.0% 0.445 0.2753 0.111
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1997 100.0% 31.17 100.0% -0.084 -0.14 -0.149
River Surges in Sunlight 6567 103.85% 31.88 102.01% 0.199 0.1249 -0.077
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 419 47.0% 33.35 73.75% -0.534 -0.1079 -0.141
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 75 56.76% 37.88 70.67% 0.647 0.3059 -0.87
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5350 100.0% 34.47 100.0% 0.495 0.3014 0.218
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5747 107.73% 28.2 103.53% 0.071 0.5459 0.928
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 16 50.0% 32.0 68.75% -0.744 -0.5643 -1.023
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 71 38.03% 36.0 81.69% 0.369 0.4246 1.067
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 457 46.34% 30.39 76.15% 1.82 1.7975 -0.759
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 307 50.0% 30.58 75.24% 0.084 0.1995 0.272
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3775 100.0% 32.87 100.0% 0.292 0.1008 0.382
Shifting Memory of Ages 321 100.0% 31.52 100.0% -0.0 0.2148 -0.188
Shroud of Silent Mist 856 100.0% 30.07 100.0% 0.76 0.8945 -0.154
Starlight Seeks its Form 293 100.0% 35.05 100.0% -0.141 -0.2563 0.926
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1366 100.0% 36.14 100.0% -0.521 -0.7593 -0.213
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2001 100.0% 34.3 100.0% 0.073 0.2034 0.627
Thunderspeaker 5840 100.0% 32.36 100.0% -0.126 -0.1429 -0.149
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1120 100.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.237 0.0218 -0.313
Vital Strength of the Earth 4661 102.04% 27.66 101.8% -0.606 0.2919 -0.408
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 21 42.86% 29.57 80.95% 0.544 0.9669 0.07
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 195 57.44% 28.42 58.97% -0.703 0.4116 -0.602
Volcano Looming High 623 100.0% 29.46 100.0% -0.49 -0.5103 -0.667

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.5%
Dread Apparitions 86.43%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.52%
Predatory Nightmares 65.31%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6515 22.65 1.98%
II 25155 31.08 16.99%
III 40830 34.66 68.55%
IV 64459 37.91 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 129
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27287
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3634
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 63753
Lose: Invader deck ran out 160
Lose: Adversary condition 9958
Win: Sacrifice victory 485
Lose: Scenario condition 1376
Win: Scenario condition 1290
Lose: Blight pool ran out 27601
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1286

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.313 Win Model: -0.197

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.21 Win Model: 0.189
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 78319 60.84% 27.31 69.33%
2 34527 59.14% 29.23 70.09%
3 12372 49.87% 31.99 73.5%
4 11184 43.16% 33.83 76.26%
5 98 34.74% 30.78 73.47%
6 459 26.91% 31.97 83.44%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)