Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1136 60.9% 25.91 -1.706 60.39% -0.585 -0.0083
Dahan Insurrection 4 1355 35.73% 48.57 8.873 61.33% -1.0 -0.5992
Elemental Invocation 1 33 57.58% 26.48 -1.723 57.58% -0.792 -0.4108
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3613 22.31% 38.05 3.122 67.48% -0.725 -0.3593
Powers Long Forgotten 1 521 68.47% 31.32 0.542 61.04% -0.433 0.0086
Rituals of Terror 3 500 75.91% 30.62 0.921 41.2% -1.43 -0.8022
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 307 81.76% 33.41 2.279 53.09% -0.699 -0.0491
Second Wave 0 4428 51.37% 28.75 -0.184 72.85% -0.616 -0.1996
The Great River 3 28 57.14% 31.07 1.009 42.86% -1.869 -0.398
Ward the Shores 2 406 69.4% 28.32 -1.023 38.42% -1.603 -0.5669

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 53670 60.66% 26.88 -0.469 69.75% -0.976 -0.6168
1 Thematic 2443 62.16% 33.72 1.358 56.69% -1.155 -0.651
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 17154 60.03% 28.45 -0.253 69.73% -0.466 -0.2703
2 Coastline 1986 59.48% 28.75 -0.159 72.76% -0.353 -0.2109
2 Fragment 491 63.64% 24.95 -1.651 65.78% -0.787 -0.3648
2 Heart 261 68.53% 24.42 -1.862 66.28% -0.755 -0.4622
2 Opposite Shores 3488 51.68% 29.13 -0.282 73.08% -0.429 -0.2044
2 Thematic 1518 54.02% 37.17 2.027 59.75% -0.605 -0.56
2 Top to Top 613 59.48% 28.34 -0.448 68.03% -0.506 -0.3712
3 Coastline 44 55.81% 31.07 -0.239 56.82% -0.116 -0.1498
3 Other 348 49.85% 27.6 -1.146 70.69% -0.261 0.1544
3 Round (Default) 8656 49.37% 31.33 0.379 73.93% 0.226 0.2646
3 Sunrise 41 56.1% 27.29 -1.46 73.17% 0.166 -0.057
3 Thematic 397 51.4% 37.35 1.8 58.44% -0.104 -0.4606
4 Coastline 17 23.53% 32.18 -0.326 82.35% 0.046 0.2045
4 Leaf 35 54.29% 32.4 0.682 82.86% 1.07 1.0978
4 Other 209 51.23% 30.65 -0.306 77.03% 0.678 0.791
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 4.063 100.0% 0.543 -0.2451
4 Snake 5 40.0% 24.0 -3.91 60.0% -0.316 -0.192
4 Thematic 1503 46.3% 39.22 2.211 67.8% 0.693 -0.3934
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6961 43.38% 33.11 0.804 76.94% 0.879 0.8623
5 Other 69 42.03% 36.28 1.827 92.75% 1.804 1.5851
5 Thematic 10 50.0% 38.7 3.197 100.0% 1.475 -1.3527

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3958 28.7 -1.558 52.96% -1.987 0.083
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3275 30.37 -0.719 55.36% -1.898 0.0207
All Things Weaken 1022 26.82 -2.293 46.97% -2.257 -0.1025
Back Against the Wall 3282 29.68 -1.065 53.35% -1.986 0.1103
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3947 26.65 -2.611 51.03% -2.069 0.1545
Downward Spiral 11776 24.88 -2.227 62.82% -1.776 0.241
Erosion of Will 3797 28.36 -1.721 51.88% -2.042 0.1679
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 285 33.69 1.362 76.14% -0.629 0.0753
Memory Fades to Dust 11869 23.83 -2.753 57.54% -2.045 0.1699
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1058 27.86 -1.705 53.69% -1.9 0.1196
Promising Farmlands 4108 28.82 -1.532 55.99% -1.847 0.3656
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 255 34.19 1.628 82.35% -0.355 0.0801
Thriving Communities 1047 27.29 -1.889 52.44% -1.925 0.1731
Tipping Point 2509 28.32 -1.836 51.69% -2.016 0.2026
Unnatural Proliferation 1168 28.99 -1.154 51.37% -2.012 0.0655
Untended Land Crumbles 1000 28.53 -1.396 54.1% -1.825 0.2736

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18075 60.24% 26.62 -0.775 69.4% 0.05 -1.0398
B 19873 57.93% 27.68 -0.327 71.05% 0.156 -1.0289
C 19025 57.49% 27.93 -0.157 71.07% 0.187 -1.2281
D 19500 55.57% 29.22 0.456 72.47% 0.256 -0.9212
E 2688 60.22% 29.52 0.043 68.9% 0.171 -1.1057
F 5106 56.3% 29.44 0.089 70.58% 0.165 -1.0783
G 5371 57.49% 29.8 0.221 70.02% 0.201 -1.0299
H 4653 58.52% 28.93 -0.101 69.78% 0.141 -1.099
East 1311 50.85% 38.4 2.748 62.85% -0.119 -1.0699
Northeast 1484 55.05% 38.09 2.55 62.26% -0.075 -0.9652
Northwest 1183 57.08% 36.56 1.906 60.1% -0.075 -1.0402
Southeast 181 54.7% 31.48 -0.42 59.12% -0.373 -1.3748
Southwest 181 59.12% 29.15 -1.552 62.43% -0.308 -0.9166
West 1291 55.11% 35.02 1.226 56.16% -0.313 -0.9987

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 5539 0.0% 16.36 -5.26 61.6% -2.551 -0.5068
Not Using Events or Tokens 24762 60.75% 23.09 -2.339 71.99% -0.194 0.0253
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3080 25.7% 34.04 2.305 85.32% 0.662 -0.0424
Start of Game Growth 3970 28.2% 32.87 1.589 83.15% 0.176 -0.2786
Unlimited Undo 9552 50.98% 31.95 1.505 75.8% 0.418 0.0058
Using Tokens but Not Events 9372 51.13% 25.58 -1.588 76.61% 0.051 0.0033

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 5383 43.75% 30.88 0.24 75.7% -0.009 0.1369
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1442 50.32% 30.62 -0.166 70.8% -0.118 -0.2037
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2309 40.99% 32.52 0.903 80.9% 0.307 -0.0577
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1343 48.22% 31.68 0.359 75.2% 0.103 -0.142
Fractured Days Split the Sky 301 50.84% 36.2 2.192 69.77% -0.009 0.3365
Heart of the Wildfire 3603 63.93% 28.01 -1.348 65.47% -0.282 0.0689
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4311 47.41% 33.6 0.998 74.83% 0.184 -0.1158
Lightning's Swift Strike 5395 50.73% 29.1 -0.32 72.46% -0.147 0.1216
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 374 48.66% 32.82 0.578 76.2% 0.159 -0.1608
Many Minds Move as One 597 46.37% 34.52 1.598 81.24% 0.511 -0.0094
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 14686 52.02% 32.94 1.348 73.5% 0.29 0.0952
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1465 51.67% 31.79 0.371 71.4% -0.004 0.045
River Surges in Sunlight 5485 50.22% 32.5 0.715 71.69% -0.138 0.0243
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4395 47.87% 34.18 1.269 71.67% 0.01 0.1595
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 4961 59.62% 28.04 -0.745 70.79% -0.155 0.2951
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3084 49.14% 32.47 0.496 73.83% 0.035 -0.0322
Shroud of Silent Mist 42 42.86% 27.26 -1.708 59.52% -0.848 -0.8918
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 819 54.05% 30.77 -0.361 70.09% -0.014 -0.0326
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1366 41.36% 35.33 1.677 77.67% 0.241 0.4568
Thunderspeaker 4585 49.09% 32.47 0.869 72.85% 0.004 0.0616
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 767 65.71% 28.89 -1.09 64.54% -0.202 -0.1826
Vital Strength of the Earth 3880 49.63% 27.96 -1.156 69.97% -0.338 0.5322
Volcano Looming High 172 57.56% 29.94 -0.597 69.77% -0.089 -0.1514

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.66%
Dread Apparitions 86.97%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.83%
Predatory Nightmares 65.83%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4963 22.34 1.77%
II 18459 30.75 17.3%
III 30067 34.26 68.8%
IV 46433 37.47 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 55
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12750
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1705
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 30060
Lose: Invader deck ran out 114
Lose: Adversary condition 7374
Win: Sacrifice victory 333
Lose: Scenario condition 1108
Win: Scenario condition 986
Lose: Blight pool ran out 20137
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1004

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.15 Win Model: -0.2

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.304 Win Model: -0.448
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 56140 60.73% 27.18 69.19%
2 25559 58.58% 28.99 69.69%
3 9463 49.57% 31.43 73.12%
4 8760 43.98% 34.1 75.49%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)