Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1169 60.65% 26.0 -1.64 60.74% -0.57 0.0108
Dahan Insurrection 4 1439 35.68% 48.83 9.014 60.95% -0.981 -0.5777
Despicable Theft 2 7 42.86% 42.43 5.85 100.0% 0.532 0.8822
Elemental Invocation 1 44 61.36% 29.34 -0.454 63.64% -0.424 -0.052
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3684 22.32% 38.04 3.123 67.56% -0.727 -0.3627
Powers Long Forgotten 1 534 68.68% 31.25 0.527 61.05% -0.44 0.0016
Rituals of Terror 3 510 75.79% 30.44 0.862 40.98% -1.454 -0.8196
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 313 82.11% 33.17 2.183 52.72% -0.718 -0.0776
Second Wave 0 4586 51.33% 28.65 -0.222 72.85% -0.627 -0.2027
The Great River 3 38 57.89% 32.55 1.895 50.0% -1.649 -0.2276
Ward the Shores 2 411 69.29% 28.25 -1.059 38.2% -1.627 -0.5854

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 55809 60.61% 26.87 -0.469 69.83% -1.077 -0.7494
1 Thematic 2545 62.3% 33.48 1.274 56.66% -1.27 -0.7966
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 17796 60.03% 28.42 -0.258 69.85% -0.509 -0.3122
2 Coastline 2089 58.91% 28.76 -0.141 72.86% -0.401 -0.25
2 Fragment 521 63.01% 24.77 -1.724 65.83% -0.86 -0.4553
2 Heart 273 68.44% 24.18 -1.968 65.2% -0.87 -0.5578
2 Opposite Shores 3683 51.64% 29.49 -0.168 73.31% -0.459 -0.236
2 Thematic 1554 54.22% 37.25 2.064 60.04% -0.641 -0.6124
2 Top to Top 637 59.36% 28.23 -0.504 67.66% -0.585 -0.4453
3 Coastline 47 58.7% 31.74 0.053 59.57% 0.037 -0.0103
3 Other 366 50.72% 27.67 -1.121 71.04% -0.255 0.1833
3 Round (Default) 8959 49.52% 31.29 0.38 74.1% 0.239 0.2972
3 Sunrise 42 57.14% 27.02 -1.594 71.43% 0.092 -0.1053
3 Thematic 404 51.75% 37.29 1.817 58.91% -0.077 -0.4377
4 Coastline 18 27.78% 31.56 -0.673 83.33% 0.083 0.2537
4 Leaf 35 54.29% 32.4 0.688 82.86% 1.124 1.187
4 Other 227 51.58% 31.04 -0.102 77.97% 0.811 0.9424
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 4.094 100.0% 0.56 -0.22
4 Snake 5 40.0% 24.0 -3.894 60.0% -0.297 -0.1415
4 Thematic 1538 46.09% 39.27 2.232 67.88% 0.753 -0.3072
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7216 43.55% 33.09 0.792 76.8% 0.932 0.97
5 Other 73 41.1% 36.81 2.085 93.15% 1.899 1.6999
5 Thematic 12 41.67% 37.75 2.785 100.0% 1.534 -1.4223

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4109 28.76 -1.522 53.42% -1.98 0.0901
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3368 30.34 -0.72 55.55% -1.907 0.0151
All Things Weaken 1110 26.75 -2.361 46.94% -2.289 -0.1354
Back Against the Wall 3392 29.6 -1.089 53.33% -2.0 0.0962
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4083 26.65 -2.601 51.11% -2.076 0.15
Downward Spiral 12202 24.82 -2.252 62.79% -1.789 0.2292
Erosion of Will 3916 28.4 -1.7 52.09% -2.045 0.165
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 319 33.75 1.35 77.74% -0.598 0.0959
Memory Fades to Dust 12306 23.81 -2.763 57.54% -2.054 0.1612
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1149 27.68 -1.781 54.13% -1.929 0.0883
Promising Farmlands 4239 28.8 -1.538 55.84% -1.865 0.3489
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 278 34.45 1.716 83.45% -0.301 0.129
Thriving Communities 1146 27.78 -1.698 53.23% -1.901 0.1951
Tipping Point 2509 28.32 -1.832 51.69% -2.023 0.1985
Unnatural Proliferation 1278 28.98 -1.157 52.35% -2.017 0.0694
Untended Land Crumbles 1091 28.65 -1.352 55.18% -1.819 0.2776

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18699 60.24% 26.62 -0.781 69.32% 0.038 -1.0638
B 20556 57.89% 27.66 -0.323 71.17% 0.152 -1.0439
C 19740 57.57% 27.9 -0.162 71.11% 0.18 -1.2484
D 20151 55.64% 29.18 0.444 72.5% 0.248 -0.9425
E 2948 60.32% 29.54 0.053 69.44% 0.171 -1.1284
F 5398 56.04% 29.48 0.118 70.95% 0.168 -1.086
G 5666 57.13% 29.75 0.208 70.26% 0.19 -1.0522
H 4913 58.58% 29.03 -0.054 70.08% 0.149 -1.1084
East 1340 51.21% 38.45 2.786 62.69% -0.122 -1.0815
Northeast 1523 55.35% 38.03 2.547 62.11% -0.084 -0.9851
Northwest 1220 56.91% 36.53 1.908 60.25% -0.081 -1.0558
Southeast 189 53.72% 31.42 -0.393 60.85% -0.336 -1.3406
Southwest 191 59.16% 29.4 -1.433 62.83% -0.288 -0.8872
West 1318 55.04% 34.97 1.222 56.37% -0.321 -1.0206

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 5757 0.0% 16.31 -5.277 61.47% -2.57 -0.5219
Not Using Events or Tokens 25779 60.67% 23.09 -2.327 71.95% -0.192 0.0283
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3208 25.76% 33.81 2.26 85.35% 0.669 -0.0359
Start of Game Growth 4123 28.35% 32.67 1.545 83.22% 0.178 -0.2734
Unlimited Undo 9895 51.06% 31.93 1.51 76.04% 0.421 0.0044
Using Tokens but Not Events 9692 51.12% 25.58 -1.589 76.62% 0.049 -0.0017

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 5602 43.73% 30.82 0.222 75.67% -0.055 0.0806
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1500 50.85% 30.54 -0.222 70.47% -0.179 -0.2652
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2423 41.08% 32.45 0.875 81.02% 0.264 -0.1058
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1392 48.24% 31.65 0.359 75.22% 0.056 -0.1998
Fractured Days Split the Sky 339 49.4% 36.18 2.153 71.39% -0.004 0.3574
Heart of the Wildfire 3677 63.94% 28.05 -1.326 65.52% -0.313 0.0363
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4403 47.49% 33.56 0.986 74.84% 0.139 -0.1625
Lightning's Swift Strike 5588 50.79% 29.0 -0.341 72.66% -0.182 0.0796
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 442 50.68% 32.96 0.597 75.34% 0.139 -0.151
Many Minds Move as One 638 46.06% 34.81 1.725 81.97% 0.515 -0.0119
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 15239 52.15% 32.98 1.363 73.46% 0.248 0.0515
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1525 51.61% 31.71 0.333 71.48% -0.043 0.0012
River Surges in Sunlight 5675 50.25% 32.39 0.677 71.68% -0.181 -0.0287
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 4474 47.71% 34.26 1.306 71.81% -0.026 0.118
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5144 59.74% 28.06 -0.71 71.01% -0.177 0.2653
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3147 49.21% 32.47 0.5 73.91% -0.005 -0.0766
Shroud of Silent Mist 209 53.11% 31.33 0.194 72.25% -0.188 -0.2109
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 864 53.9% 31.0 -0.239 70.83% -0.012 -0.0332
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1430 41.68% 35.24 1.64 77.83% 0.21 0.4189
Thunderspeaker 4687 49.17% 32.39 0.847 72.88% -0.04 0.0144
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 798 65.99% 29.01 -1.042 64.66% -0.222 -0.2081
Vital Strength of the Earth 3974 49.55% 27.86 -1.178 70.03% -0.381 0.4873
Volcano Looming High 222 58.56% 30.3 -0.505 70.27% -0.092 -0.1209

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.66%
Dread Apparitions 86.97%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.82%
Predatory Nightmares 65.82%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5107 22.33 1.76%
II 19129 30.75 17.24%
III 31198 34.25 68.79%
IV 48418 37.47 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 57
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13495
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1795
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 32016
Lose: Invader deck ran out 119
Lose: Adversary condition 7632
Win: Sacrifice victory 346
Lose: Scenario condition 1141
Win: Scenario condition 1033
Lose: Blight pool ran out 20895
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1027

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.159 Win Model: -0.199

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.305 Win Model: -0.464
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 58384 60.69% 27.16 69.26%
2 26609 58.52% 29.01 69.83%
3 9794 49.72% 31.41 73.34%
4 9065 44.08% 34.08 75.42%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)