Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 41.67% 23.83 100.0% 0.804 0.6018 0.0
Blitz 0 973 63.63% 26.65 59.92% -0.657 -0.3996 -0.565
Dahan Insurrection 4 1163 36.93% 48.42 60.36% -1.598 -1.1845 0.091
Despicable Theft 2 43 55.81% 33.21 72.09% 0.483 0.9291 -0.863
Elemental Invocation 1 164 66.46% 28.55 65.85% 0.059 0.545 -0.847
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2860 21.91% 39.33 69.93% -0.16 0.1458 0.161
Powers Long Forgotten 1 404 65.76% 30.68 59.41% -0.4 -0.2184 -0.781
Rituals of Terror 3 460 68.94% 44.54 46.3% -0.428 -0.3066 0.656
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 239 83.68% 33.9 53.14% -1.191 -0.7761 -0.689
Second Wave 0 3721 49.72% 28.31 74.01% -0.52 0.0456 -0.161
The Great River 3 61 57.38% 31.33 45.9% -1.768 -0.3705 -1.016
Varied Terrains 2 6 83.33% 37.17 66.67% 0.335 0.8604 0.18
Ward the Shores 2 340 74.04% 26.23 34.41% -1.575 -0.413 -1.335

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 71688 60.83% 26.99 69.8% 0.082 1.0977 -0.504
1 Thematic 3169 63.29% 33.06 57.65% -0.115 1.0577 -0.821
2 Archipelago 31 48.39% 37.39 80.65% 0.473 1.456 0.085
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 22197 60.72% 28.74 70.22% 0.016 0.7675 -0.068
2 Coastline 2666 58.13% 29.06 72.92% -0.161 0.4417 0.272
2 Fragment 638 62.42% 24.33 65.52% 0.11 0.558 -0.025
2 Heart 341 65.63% 23.66 65.98% 0.075 0.613 -0.53
2 Opposite Shores 4628 52.71% 29.38 73.16% 0.06 1.0527 -0.456
2 Other 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Thematic 1845 55.08% 36.94 59.78% -0.717 -0.0187 -0.559
2 Top to Top 806 59.92% 28.51 68.24% 0.146 0.6559 -0.825
3 Archipelago 14 71.43% 63.0 85.71% -0.063 0.1105 0.71
3 Coastline 74 56.16% 31.46 63.51% -0.247 -1.0295 0.574
3 Other 443 52.38% 27.93 71.11% 0.362 0.3266 0.222
3 Round (Default) 10856 49.85% 31.15 73.9% -0.342 0.2524 -0.096
3 Sunrise 56 50.0% 27.75 75.0% 0.0 0.0368 0.145
3 Thematic 496 52.44% 37.66 61.09% 0.173 0.1356 -0.424
4 Archipelago 20 35.0% 41.95 75.0% 0.225 -0.4858 -1.172
4 Coastline 24 33.33% 30.42 83.33% -0.557 -0.4401 -0.363
4 Leaf 44 50.0% 30.95 84.09% 0.0 0.5626 0.0
4 Other 298 49.83% 30.16 77.18% -0.699 -0.9526 0.451
4 Reverse Snake 2 100.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 6 50.0% 23.33 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1786 44.12% 42.3 69.99% -0.133 0.3962 -0.018
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8731 42.58% 32.88 77.68% -0.081 -0.1078 0.288
5 Archipelago 10 70.0% 35.5 70.0% 0.0 -0.5788 -0.39
5 Coastline 4 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.015 -0.5495 0.0
5 Other 144 40.43% 33.81 86.11% 0.177 0.3454 0.663
5 Thematic 23 47.83% 39.61 95.65% 0.048 -0.2288 1.038
6 Archipelago 8 12.5% 30.75 87.5% 0.099 -0.1563 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 34.0 0.0% -0.421 -1.0103 -0.235
6 Other 45 37.78% 24.6 86.67% 0.176 0.9852 0.424
6 Star 18 55.56% 37.56 61.11% 0.116 0.8999 -0.016
6 Thematic 93 32.61% 36.27 79.57% -0.854 -1.1326 -0.365
6 Two Centers (Default) 169 26.63% 29.33 86.98% 0.011 -0.0828 -0.09
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 46.0 50.0% 0.0 -0.5774 -0.338
7 Other 3 66.67% 42.67 66.67% 0.471 -0.681 0.021

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5108 28.92 53.7% -1.693 0.2101 -0.53
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4209 30.63 56.4% -1.747 -0.0168 -0.093
All Things Weaken 1803 27.72 47.92% -1.442 0.543 -0.606
Back Against the Wall 4153 29.64 53.5% -1.596 0.2204 -0.182
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5042 27.0 51.65% -1.368 0.6826 -0.577
Downward Spiral 15098 24.61 62.45% -1.56 0.4332 -0.318
Erosion of Will 4885 28.49 51.98% -2.121 -0.0378 -0.553
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 546 33.76 78.39% -0.429 0.0117 0.149
Memory Fades to Dust 15255 23.79 57.47% -1.554 0.5301 -0.575
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1860 28.62 56.29% -1.322 0.6167 -0.419
Promising Farmlands 5193 28.9 56.04% -1.428 0.6183 -0.266
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 453 33.72 84.77% -0.143 0.2814 -0.015
Thriving Communities 1862 28.27 54.14% -1.685 0.2984 -0.406
Tipping Point 2510 28.31 51.67% 0.0 -0.1175 -0.555
Unnatural Proliferation 2071 29.52 52.82% -1.564 0.4005 -0.59
Untended Land Crumbles 1799 27.89 54.14% -1.682 0.3113 -0.533

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 38757 56.6% 27.9 70.92% -0.335 0.4629 -0.481
B 41329 55.36% 28.8 72.36% -0.251 0.4926 -0.35
C 40319 55.27% 29.16 72.49% -0.179 0.3898 -0.298
D 40754 54.12% 29.61 73.09% -0.222 0.5741 -0.111
E 8235 55.67% 30.59 72.01% -0.282 0.3648 -0.42
F 13245 53.76% 30.34 72.2% -0.558 0.1662 -0.316
G 13202 53.77% 30.68 72.89% 0.117 0.8487 -0.282
H 12033 54.94% 30.3 71.96% -0.226 0.4867 -0.406
East 5388 52.04% 38.45 63.72% -0.388 0.3802 -0.462
Northeast 3724 51.02% 39.65 65.2% -0.094 0.7654 -0.681
Northwest 3170 51.44% 39.56 64.61% -0.453 0.6234 0.068
Southeast 623 49.76% 32.57 66.77% -0.073 0.6328 0.353
Southwest 621 51.77% 31.55 65.54% -0.263 0.8622 -0.111
West 4952 53.37% 37.63 62.34% -0.653 0.3014 -0.834

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7188 0.0% 16.26 62.01% -2.376 -0.247 -2.062
Not Using Events or Tokens 32758 60.81% 22.96 71.78% -0.242 -0.0674 0.043
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3907 25.88% 33.53 85.59% 0.374 0.232 0.368
Start of Game Growth 5078 28.76% 32.35 83.54% 0.223 -0.5376 0.018
Unlimited Undo 12531 50.42% 31.69 76.83% 0.625 0.021 0.366
Using Tokens but Not Events 11557 51.01% 25.78 76.71% -0.204 -0.3609 -0.232

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 6885 100.0% 31.69 100.0% 0.123 0.0083 0.033
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1992 100.0% 30.08 100.0% -0.321 -0.4827 -0.506
Downpour Drenches the World 73 100.0% 36.68 100.0% 0.267 0.5194 0.599
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3178 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.412 -0.0254 0.173
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1802 100.0% 31.56 100.0% 0.397 -0.0908 -0.208
Finder of Paths Unseen 60 100.0% 32.9 100.0% 0.099 0.4621 0.056
Fractured Days Split the Sky 548 100.0% 36.59 100.0% 0.126 0.1822 0.333
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 271 100.0% 32.44 100.0% -0.782 -0.8142 -0.123
Heart of the Wildfire 4211 100.0% 27.84 100.0% -0.632 -0.4574 -0.365
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 5118 100.0% 33.65 100.0% 0.018 -0.4381 0.237
Lightning's Swift Strike 6102 106.12% 27.95 102.52% -0.493 -0.2187 0.004
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 14 50.0% 35.71 71.43% 0.143 -0.6342 -0.366
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 414 49.27% 37.82 79.23% 0.436 -0.2065 0.569
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 289 43.62% 32.96 77.85% -0.101 -0.3678 0.521
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 952 100.0% 32.76 100.0% 0.548 0.2818 -0.493
Many Minds Move as One 927 100.0% 34.36 100.0% 0.362 -0.241 0.571
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 18471 100.0% 32.82 100.0% 0.004 -0.1806 0.083
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1917 100.0% 31.21 100.0% 0.243 0.2635 -0.101
River Surges in Sunlight 6406 103.28% 31.84 101.62% 0.093 0.0583 0.001
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 388 47.93% 33.7 73.97% -0.559 -0.1278 -0.139
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 17 47.06% 28.76 82.35% 0.031 -0.2696 -0.968
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5198 100.0% 34.35 100.0% 0.295 0.2426 0.213
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5621 106.68% 28.17 103.31% 0.053 0.4632 0.871
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 6 83.33% 31.67 83.33% 0.365 0.3722 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 23 43.48% 31.22 82.61% 0.052 -0.2951 0.904
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 422 46.88% 30.09 74.17% 0.204 0.2236 -0.865
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 290 50.53% 30.5 75.17% -0.488 -0.3051 0.178
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3668 100.0% 32.71 100.0% 0.791 0.5041 0.28
Shifting Memory of Ages 264 100.0% 31.25 100.0% -0.212 -0.1368 -0.089
Shroud of Silent Mist 745 100.0% 29.92 100.0% -0.347 -0.111 -0.213
Starlight Seeks its Form 222 100.0% 35.19 100.0% 0.392 0.2531 0.784
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1272 100.0% 35.55 100.0% 0.147 -0.0351 -0.203
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1922 100.0% 34.43 100.0% -0.134 0.0502 0.611
Thunderspeaker 5671 100.0% 32.33 100.0% -0.063 0.0016 -0.113
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1062 100.0% 29.31 100.0% 0.151 0.0599 -0.343
Vital Strength of the Earth 4539 101.83% 27.63 101.67% -0.063 0.7455 -0.386
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 6 33.33% 20.0 66.67% -0.466 -0.0791 -0.265
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 184 57.07% 28.63 59.78% -0.135 1.0392 -0.577
Volcano Looming High 550 100.0% 29.49 100.0% -0.866 -0.8702 -0.752

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 26.58%
Dread Apparitions 86.55%
Dreams Of the Dahan 87.62%
Predatory Nightmares 65.51%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6249 22.56 1.94%
II 24121 30.98 17.03%
III 39160 34.53 68.44%
IV 61868 37.77 99.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 121
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26135
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3486
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 61184
Lose: Invader deck ran out 156
Lose: Adversary condition 9559
Win: Sacrifice victory 464
Lose: Scenario condition 1320
Win: Scenario condition 1245
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26484
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1244

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.198 Win Model: -0.199

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.128 Win Model: 0.175
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 74945 60.95% 27.26 69.28%
2 33228 59.14% 29.2 70.1%
3 11936 49.77% 31.83 73.5%
4 10887 43.12% 33.8 76.36%
5 71 33.82% 30.04 76.06%
6 331 30.0% 31.0 84.59%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)