Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 28 17.86% 13.71 -1.655 35.71% -0.598 -0.1533
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 19 10.53% 10.21 -3.455 26.32% -0.958 -1.0063
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 14 28.57% 31.5 8.888 64.29% 0.375 0.5127
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 11 45.45% 11.91 -0.65 18.18% -0.678 -0.6321
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 8 62.5% 19.0 -0.537 12.5% -0.62 -0.2062
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 -7.669 0.0% -0.655 0.2261
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 35 22.86% 53.71 8.67 51.43% -1.193 0.5765
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 388 26.87% 22.38 2.935 60.82% 0.296 0.721
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 421 34.52% 21.82 -3.644 50.12% -0.998 -0.7308
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 403 46.13% 30.8 -3.277 52.61% -0.664 -0.1339
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 433 30.95% 41.89 2.466 46.65% -0.427 0.5434
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 113 60.18% 32.5 -1.308 41.59% -0.918 0.4266
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 51 58.82% 25.24 -10.255 21.57% -0.471 1.0399
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 517 44.4% 41.25 -3.181 38.68% -1.06 0.7679
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1448 35.65% 19.79 -0.986 64.3% -0.042 0.1546
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1294 35.67% 23.11 -2.097 63.29% -0.55 -0.6045
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1302 44.28% 31.97 0.716 67.59% -0.732 -0.7305
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1114 49.45% 37.88 6.526 68.67% -0.117 0.0757
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 724 43.48% 40.62 7.505 67.82% -0.09 0.1426
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 473 68.75% 39.56 6.276 50.32% -0.322 0.0787
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1190 54.46% 41.31 1.35 48.91% -1.37 -0.1457
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1455 36.86% 18.53 -1.809 60.62% -0.383 -0.082
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1120 38.86% 25.52 -1.415 60.0% -0.701 -0.4416
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1105 47.93% 26.94 2.106 53.03% -0.291 0.1719
The Kingdom of England 3 6 704 45.97% 32.06 5.698 46.88% -0.149 0.8726
The Kingdom of England 4 7 671 41.65% 36.99 0.514 46.8% -1.619 -0.6649
The Kingdom of England 5 9 320 51.1% 36.82 -4.173 38.75% -0.839 0.731
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2776 27.83% 50.24 9.401 49.1% -0.377 1.4596
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 712 40.37% 21.65 0.37 57.02% -0.023 0.3228
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 700 47.85% 22.61 -3.347 51.0% -1.784 -0.9562
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 779 32.13% 20.23 -1.922 17.84% -1.261 -0.1254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 517 29.07% 33.02 2.258 27.85% -0.9 0.2802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 251 26.29% 26.22 3.987 17.53% -1.03 0.279
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 193 28.5% 33.29 4.785 24.87% -0.856 0.3875
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1222 34.29% 42.36 6.669 30.61% -0.963 0.4096
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 180 18.89% 17.0 -0.825 47.22% 0.083 0.3562
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 201 21.89% 16.55 -3.438 37.81% -0.999 -0.532
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 168 25.0% 22.65 -1.022 39.88% -0.762 -0.4374
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 235 22.55% 48.31 11.247 57.02% -0.11 -0.1376
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 202 17.33% 47.52 3.034 44.55% -0.793 -0.2946
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 119 22.69% 58.79 10.537 66.39% 0.273 0.7366
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 840 15.71% 57.93 7.859 53.21% -1.111 -0.0632
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1146 37.65% 18.67 -0.728 62.48% -0.131 0.1231
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 970 43.55% 21.07 -2.242 58.76% -0.529 -0.5058
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1160 47.57% 24.61 -0.923 58.19% -0.424 -0.227
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 815 53.21% 30.91 1.793 57.79% -0.3 -0.078
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 474 60.34% 33.81 2.491 49.58% -0.371 0.379
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 289 61.7% 26.16 -6.128 34.26% -1.799 -0.7836
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 875 55.16% 39.19 0.038 50.17% -1.468 -0.5671
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 370 24.73% 18.84 -1.863 58.92% -0.283 -0.0494
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 308 37.01% 19.31 -5.048 43.51% -1.469 -0.6696
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 378 37.04% 28.89 2.24 53.17% -0.054 0.2019
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 238 47.06% 34.39 -4.409 36.55% -1.326 -0.2407
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 105 62.86% 21.88 -7.984 20.95% -0.852 0.1002
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 48 60.42% 26.0 -7.997 20.83% -0.317 1.1058
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 366 57.46% 43.09 -3.281 34.15% -1.223 0.3321

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 24890 39.69 26.15 59.39% 0.056 0.3886 -0.922
1 Thematic 4285 44.99 27.38 49.66% -0.467 0.2189 -1.042
2 Archipelago 33 40.63 27.52 72.73% -0.343 0.2646 -0.251
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4446 37.85 26.24 63.63% 0.11 0.2293 0.011
2 Coastline 610 44.05 25.92 62.95% 0.732 0.6594 0.189
2 Fragment 105 42.86 25.93 73.33% 0.703 0.5181 0.32
2 Heart 67 36.92 26.09 77.61% 0.129 -0.0286 0.841
2 Opposite Shores 869 38.78 30.88 67.32% 1.192 1.3435 -0.448
2 Thematic 951 39.02 26.83 53.73% -0.498 0.0099 -0.732
2 Top to Top 120 43.22 31.99 71.67% 0.884 0.8257 -0.014
3 Archipelago 8 50.0 45.25 100.0%
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% -0.793
3 Other 53 39.58 26.23 64.15% 0.11 -0.6611 -0.155
3 Round (Default) 1730 34.42 26.64 64.68% -0.19 -0.2808 -0.046
3 Sunrise 7 71.43 22.0 42.86% -0.142
3 Thematic 227 40.44 24.59 38.77% -0.713 -0.6923 0.323
4 Archipelago 7 42.86 57.43 100.0% 0.465 -0.0654 0.686
4 Coastline 8 16.67 24.63 75.0% 0.419
4 Leaf 8 0.0 11.38 50.0% -0.13 -0.2915
4 Other 62 32.26 37.16 64.52% -0.841 -1.5521 0.389
4 Thematic 479 42.71 31.24 68.68% 0.072 0.1948 -0.912
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1395 20.51 37.3 79.07% 1.011 1.0087 1.353
5 Archipelago 5 80.0 48.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.301
5 Other 59 19.61 22.66 62.71% -0.672 -1.186 -0.528
5 Thematic 14 50.0 26.36 57.14% 0.23 0.1728 -0.172
6 Archipelago 19 25.0 33.21 94.74% -0.144
6 Coastline 51 0.0 28.0 98.04% -0.002
6 Other 136 32.77 25.57 33.82% -0.135 -0.2384 -1.083
6 Star 28 35.71 24.18 32.14% -0.332
6 Thematic 23 39.13 25.3 52.17% -0.038 0.2476 0.741
6 Two Centers (Default) 109 7.04 22.2 75.23% -1.092 -0.5589 -0.818
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.739

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 631 22.82 43.26% 0.064 0.3155 -0.146
Aid From Lesser Spirits 747 22.27 34.27% 0.117 0.0595 -0.32
All Things Weaken 341 24.65 40.47% -0.505 -0.1703 -0.238
Attenuated Essence 100 21.35 50.0% 0.864 0.8975 -0.913
Back Against the Wall 703 22.95 33.85% -0.526 -0.4912 -0.221
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 126 25.5 51.59% -0.44 -0.2233 -0.228
Burn Brightest Before the End 74 27.49 45.95% -0.512 -0.5013 -0.357
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1113 20.54 37.74% -1.184 -0.8392 -0.567
Downward Spiral 3076 20.78 47.66% 0.223 0.3403 -0.457
Erosion of Will 629 22.12 40.38% -0.095 0.179 -0.288
Intensifying Exploitation 140 19.21 40.71% -0.18 0.031 -1.258
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 296 30.32 72.64% 0.689 0.1165 0.011
Memory Fades to Dust 3047 19.11 40.5% -0.032 0.2202 -0.542
Power Corrodes the Spirit 740 24.72 44.32% 0.238 0.4424 -0.418
Promising Farmlands 1140 22.95 42.28% 0.265 0.519 -0.15
Shattered Fragments of Power 86 22.94 32.56% 0.568 0.6416 -1.085
Slow Dissolution of Will 57 25.54 36.84% -0.271 0.1105 -0.016
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 180 31.98 83.33% 0.891 0.2172 0.852
The Border of Life and Death 36 26.0 61.11% 0.308 -0.2927 -0.015
Thriving Communities 739 24.85 43.71% -0.798 -0.5162 -0.323
Thriving Crops 71 29.06 69.01% 0.657 0.5173 1.002
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.228
Unnatural Proliferation 498 27.85 46.99% 1.123 1.3266 -0.31
Untended Land Crumbles 735 23.7 44.35% 1.011 1.2011 -0.267

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8412 38.31% 26.0 61.2% -0.163 0.8348 -0.546
B 8423 36.51% 27.25 63.29% -0.307 0.6149 -0.468
C 8589 37.23% 27.5 63.16% -0.4 0.3291 -0.396
D 7946 36.03% 27.19 62.06% -0.355 0.604 -0.438
E 3857 34.07% 29.53 64.04% -0.362 0.4572 -0.511
F 5056 36.53% 28.1 64.46% -0.363 0.5188 -0.427
G 4467 34.31% 28.58 64.67% -0.374 0.451 -0.598
H 4589 34.64% 29.12 66.22% -0.319 0.52 -0.573
East 3673 41.4% 28.43 54.86% -0.948 -0.0731 -0.344
Northeast 2109 42.32% 28.93 56.66% -0.18 0.5723 -0.18
Northwest 1601 40.37% 28.5 55.72% -0.268 0.6242 -0.337
Southeast 723 40.11% 25.01 51.18% -0.208 0.6304 -0.719
Southwest 757 42.86% 24.22 52.84% -0.279 1.0259 -0.313
West 3278 43.45% 26.78 51.43% -0.512 0.4381 -1.287

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1086 0.0% 24.01 70.35% -0.956 -0.2267 -0.394
Not Using Events or Tokens 8359 43.57% 21.73 57.69% -0.402 -0.0567 -0.133
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4686 11.25% 51.56 76.68% 0.886 0.2837 0.868
Start of Game Growth 5848 13.96% 48.53 75.34% 1.191 0.6874 1.257
Unlimited Undo 6024 26.34% 39.22 66.6% -1.004 -1.111 -0.049
Using Tokens but Not Events 4654 33.0% 29.15 73.33% 0.015 -0.0149 0.402

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11360 13.42 6.79%
II 12600 30.13 63.89%
III 11710 34.83 89.58%
IV 5188 38.67 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.514 Win Model: 0.337
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 29613 40.41% 26.22 57.61%
2 6894 39.12% 27.42 64.55%
3 1968 34.84% 26.77 63.01%
4 1961 26.33% 35.73 76.34%
5 59 26.53% 23.53 59.32%
6 363 24.42% 25.16 59.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 770
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10419
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8018
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5126
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5409
Lose: Invader deck ran out 304
Lose: Adversary condition 3568
Win: Sacrifice victory 164
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6681
Lose: Spirit destroyed 399

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)