Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 286 28.07% 24.46 -1.336 67.13% -0.367 0.0126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 299 37.58% 24.97 -2.371 57.86% -0.99 -0.7121
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 349 48.41% 32.16 -0.496 54.44% -1.036 -0.2768
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 249 43.78% 40.7 0.678 53.01% -1.903 -0.7831
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 95 63.16% 36.35 0.63 46.32% -0.631 0.7255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 41 65.85% 29.49 2.154 26.83% -0.723 0.572
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 444 47.94% 42.55 7.431 40.32% -0.92 1.0283
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1190 38.36% 21.6 -2.008 70.34% -0.195 0.0117
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1015 40.02% 25.59 -0.309 70.84% 0.031 0.0405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1058 45.82% 34.19 3.792 73.25% -0.05 -0.0229
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 968 51.63% 39.03 5.759 71.07% 0.259 0.547
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 627 44.16% 42.25 1.041 70.65% -0.434 -0.1368
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 418 71.15% 40.63 5.982 51.44% -0.841 -0.2382
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 964 59.14% 44.95 6.455 53.73% -0.843 0.551
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1160 38.88% 20.18 -3.087 66.38% -0.579 -0.2548
The Kingdom of England 1 3 894 41.09% 27.96 -0.859 65.77% -1.117 -0.8215
The Kingdom of England 2 4 921 49.94% 28.98 3.333 56.79% 0.009 0.733
The Kingdom of England 3 6 599 48.1% 33.86 0.131 48.91% -0.656 0.5802
The Kingdom of England 4 7 516 47.65% 37.71 1.208 48.64% -1.384 -0.2032
The Kingdom of England 5 9 261 53.1% 36.77 -1.025 38.31% -1.824 -0.2496
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1816 37.02% 47.3 7.391 47.03% -0.983 0.9583
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 577 43.4% 23.25 -1.307 61.7% -0.324 0.1576
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 552 50.73% 25.38 -4.721 57.43% -1.337 -0.501
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 642 32.29% 21.38 -2.498 18.85% -2.017 -0.9864
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 449 30.13% 32.04 6.385 26.95% -0.846 0.5592
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 187 27.81% 28.36 -2.771 20.86% -1.504 -0.0828
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 170 30.0% 33.68 -3.331 24.71% -2.137 -1.2903
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1113 35.59% 42.78 12.129 30.37% -0.485 0.9014
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 84 19.05% 18.69 -1.832 45.24% -0.418 -0.1325
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 94 21.28% 18.23 -1.069 41.49% -0.481 -0.0014
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 98 26.53% 26.67 -4.846 47.96% -1.515 -1.2372
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 133 19.55% 49.06 8.842 59.4% -0.632 -0.221
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 103 16.5% 48.43 4.728 44.66% 0.027 0.9134
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 75 14.67% 62.88 15.389 70.67% 0.173 0.9827
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 256 22.27% 59.24 12.69 62.5% -0.077 0.9438
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 938 40.78% 20.58 -0.35 69.51% 0.249 0.3984
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 767 46.75% 23.27 -2.141 64.93% -0.4 -0.2724
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 938 49.25% 26.82 -0.336 63.86% -0.641 -0.4427
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 655 57.38% 33.2 4.353 61.98% -0.106 0.3118
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 394 63.75% 34.11 1.695 51.52% -1.266 -0.5615
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 241 64.96% 29.36 -1.714 39.42% -1.078 -0.1437
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 750 58.5% 40.17 2.307 51.47% -1.146 -0.1551
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 265 28.9% 21.29 -0.898 69.06% -0.413 -0.3141
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 208 46.15% 23.06 -4.134 51.44% -1.254 -0.3057
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 305 39.02% 31.88 2.026 58.69% -0.193 0.0873
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 171 53.8% 32.31 5.694 34.5% -0.825 0.2858
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 89 67.42% 25.1 -6.449 24.72% -1.249 -0.2401
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 31 64.52% 29.45 3.647 22.58% -0.838 0.8286
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 316 60.58% 44.35 3.587 34.81% -1.293 0.516

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 19810 42.56 26.89 63.34% 0.127 0.3178 -0.803
1 Thematic 3656 47.99 29.39 52.76% -0.517 0.1278 -0.974
2 Archipelago 27 38.46 28.04 74.07% 0.736 1.1684 -0.419
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3567 40.46 27.9 67.12% -0.246 -0.2501 -0.015
2 Coastline 496 45.55 27.41 63.71% -0.678 -0.6222 0.059
2 Fragment 83 44.58 26.84 74.7% 0.258 -0.0083 0.232
2 Heart 53 36.54 27.68 79.25% 0.562 0.5235 0.841
2 Opposite Shores 704 42.81 28.76 65.77% 0.027 0.041 -0.831
2 Thematic 750 42.26 30.09 60.4% -0.158 0.0387 -0.63
2 Top to Top 90 42.05 32.28 68.89% -1.184 -1.2823 -0.158
3 Archipelago 4 25.0 40.5 100.0% 0.688 0.2413
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% -0.886
3 Other 41 27.78 24.88 68.29% -0.575 -0.968 -0.213
3 Round (Default) 1384 36.56 28.48 68.93% -0.847 -1.1828 -0.302
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.191
3 Thematic 170 46.43 28.94 42.94% -0.357 -0.6411 0.158
4 Archipelago 4 25.0 74.0 100.0% 0.401
4 Coastline 5 0.0 24.6 80.0% 0.341
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 54 31.48 39.78 68.52% -0.836 -2.166 0.339
4 Thematic 419 46.86 34.48 75.18% 0.618 0.5381 -0.542
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1197 21.5 37.46 81.37% 0.739 0.582 1.025
5 Archipelago 2 50.0 57.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.404
5 Other 40 18.75 28.15 80.0%
5 Thematic 8 50.0 26.63 62.5% -0.646 -0.6525 -0.009
6 Archipelago 17 50.0 33.12 94.12% -0.193
6 Coastline 50 0.0 27.82 100.0%
6 Other 66 42.86 35.18 60.61% 0.038 -0.1658 -0.392
6 Star 25 40.0 26.24 32.0% -0.53
6 Thematic 15 53.33 28.13 53.33% 0.621
6 Two Centers (Default) 91 5.56 24.87 85.71% 0.15 -0.1843 -0.388
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.172 0.2242 0.675

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 561 23.04 43.32% 0.522 0.6513 -0.261
Aid From Lesser Spirits 658 22.1 33.43% -0.328 -0.4463 -0.462
All Things Weaken 305 25.32 40.0% 0.079 0.387 -0.293
Attenuated Essence 41 21.73 56.1% -0.049 -0.0169 -0.83
Back Against the Wall 632 23.17 33.86% -0.456 -0.426 -0.27
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 55 30.27 56.36% 0.42 0.6062 -0.05
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 26.48 47.73% 0.735 0.8049 -0.417
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1025 20.69 38.34% -0.244 0.1319 -0.729
Downward Spiral 2618 21.35 48.85% 0.217 0.3832 -0.494
Erosion of Will 540 22.51 40.74% 0.177 0.3918 -0.316
Intensifying Exploitation 56 21.45 44.64% -0.57 -0.329 -1.352
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 262 31.08 73.28% 1.03 0.4482 -0.086
Memory Fades to Dust 2672 19.68 42.1% -0.374 -0.0812 -0.658
Power Corrodes the Spirit 637 25.21 44.43% -0.916 -0.7551 -0.57
Promising Farmlands 1034 23.15 42.26% 0.116 0.4125 -0.173
Shattered Fragments of Power 39 24.77 23.08% -1.467 -1.3786 -0.954
Slow Dissolution of Will 29 30.1 48.28% 0.257 0.6498 0.555
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 150 31.62 82.0% 1.217 0.505 0.892
The Border of Life and Death 17 34.47 70.59% 0.125 -0.3546 0.758
Thriving Communities 644 25.76 44.25% 0.286 0.5857 -0.305
Thriving Crops 28 29.82 67.86% 0.748 0.6462 0.848
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.279
Unnatural Proliferation 443 27.99 45.37% 0.105 0.2743 -0.496
Untended Land Crumbles 625 24.48 44.64% -0.065 0.1931 -0.361

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6674 41.27% 27.27 65.51% -0.772 0.3704 -0.333
B 6792 39.22% 28.37 67.31% -0.509 0.5456 -0.185
C 6971 39.42% 28.51 66.81% -0.423 0.4648 -0.112
D 6356 38.36% 28.21 66.0% -0.732 0.3219 -0.283
E 2962 36.25% 30.57 67.66% -0.399 0.5051 -0.52
F 4095 38.74% 28.99 68.18% -0.53 0.4744 -0.266
G 3610 36.16% 29.67 69.2% -0.557 0.411 -0.149
H 3704 36.23% 30.52 70.84% -0.598 0.3943 -0.314
East 3060 44.55% 31.13 59.67% -0.436 0.5522 -0.256
Northeast 1776 45.99% 31.7 61.66% -0.245 0.7041 0.04
Northwest 1331 44.54% 31.47 61.01% -0.6 0.4416 -0.173
Southeast 561 43.85% 27.71 56.33% -0.139 0.7791 -0.603
Southwest 587 47.78% 26.5 57.41% -0.396 1.0607 -0.092
West 2706 47.23% 29.41 55.99% -0.847 0.2595 -1.045

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 955 0.0% 25.67 73.19% -1.036 -0.3719 -0.407
Not Using Events or Tokens 6687 45.93% 23.77 63.59% -0.167 0.3271 -0.016
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3507 12.31% 48.88 81.18% 0.925 0.3023 0.916
Start of Game Growth 4519 15.72% 46.61 78.78% 0.646 0.2335 1.049
Unlimited Undo 4622 30.51% 36.9 70.88% 0.047 -0.048 0.138
Using Tokens but Not Events 4032 34.71% 30.61 76.04% -0.144 -0.068 0.271

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7714 16.77 8.93%
II 10699 30.59 64.11%
III 10060 34.74 89.44%
IV 4404 38.3 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.859 Win Model: 0.872
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 23720 43.44% 27.25 61.48%
2 5609 41.5% 28.42 66.77%
3 1566 36.61% 28.59 67.11%
4 1688 28.14% 36.86 79.86%
5 30 15.0% 27.67 73.33%
6 264 26.25% 28.78 75.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 688
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8934
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6829
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4354
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2321
Lose: Invader deck ran out 263
Lose: Adversary condition 3071
Win: Sacrifice victory 145
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5922
Lose: Spirit destroyed 350

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)