Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 216 32.09% 27.86 2.184 76.39% 0.182 0.3929
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 230 40.17% 29.01 -3.477 66.96% -1.021 -0.5863
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 284 50.0% 34.91 3.259 60.21% -0.568 0.164
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 182 52.2% 37.68 5.931 54.4% -0.578 0.4805
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 78 69.23% 39.72 -7.744 52.56% -1.02 0.2738
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 30 83.33% 33.23 -1.238 33.33% -0.629 0.9651
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 360 56.98% 41.94 1.625 40.56% -1.6 0.3411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1006 39.59% 23.36 -1.808 76.44% -0.449 -0.3511
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 852 41.66% 27.49 -0.421 76.29% -0.09 -0.182
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 935 48.42% 34.85 0.269 75.51% -0.455 -0.5184
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 871 52.93% 39.67 3.919 72.33% -0.308 -0.0461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 536 46.1% 44.17 12.091 74.44% 1.594 1.6568
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 365 73.6% 41.92 5.716 53.7% -0.217 0.2271
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 738 60.73% 45.95 -0.856 54.74% -1.699 -0.4158
The Kingdom of England 0 1 956 40.97% 22.21 -6.462 73.33% -1.6 -1.4242
The Kingdom of England 1 3 758 42.68% 29.94 1.23 70.45% 0.01 0.2244
The Kingdom of England 2 4 789 51.75% 29.83 -1.248 58.94% -1.371 -0.6173
The Kingdom of England 3 6 547 50.38% 34.2 3.518 49.36% -0.927 0.2346
The Kingdom of England 4 7 423 52.28% 39.55 5.743 53.19% -0.71 0.3051
The Kingdom of England 5 9 226 56.05% 39.06 0.39 41.15% -2.211 -0.6684
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1338 45.13% 46.98 6.825 45.67% -1.116 0.9033
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 469 44.23% 25.64 -1.262 68.23% -0.263 0.0902
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 480 53.77% 27.1 -0.7 61.25% -0.315 0.6541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 572 33.63% 22.71 6.554 20.45% -0.636 0.4522
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 361 35.83% 29.11 3.174 23.27% -0.809 0.579
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 164 30.49% 30.05 -3.578 21.34% -1.903 -0.4697
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 132 30.3% 36.96 0.097 28.79% -1.305 -0.3327
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 991 37.97% 41.17 14.715 27.95% -0.554 0.802
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 26 23.08% 31.85 -4.97 65.38% -0.463 -0.5494
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 29 37.93% 26.66 -2.995 55.17% -0.54 -0.106
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 43 23.26% 40.42 9.152 67.44% 0.476 0.8805
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 38 50.0% 34.71 2.69 52.63% -0.625 -0.2927
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 31 12.9% 49.1 5.349 48.39% -0.722 -0.1586
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 37 13.51% 68.54 16.233 78.38% 0.206 0.9457
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 148 25.68% 61.2 11.039 64.19% -0.334 0.9435
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 778 43.51% 22.06 -0.89 75.19% 0.19 0.3396
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 617 50.0% 25.47 -2.228 70.5% -0.718 -0.7287
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 756 52.13% 28.46 1.445 69.44% -0.2 0.0324
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 551 59.89% 35.54 2.417 66.61% -0.392 -0.0466
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 335 70.91% 33.41 3.804 51.94% -0.225 0.3914
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 196 71.96% 33.12 2.337 43.88% -0.467 0.4808
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 634 63.97% 40.63 3.212 53.31% -0.884 -0.0793
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 209 30.77% 23.95 -2.698 78.95% -0.601 -0.5593
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 151 50.99% 25.6 -4.237 56.95% -0.762 -0.1589
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 209 47.37% 32.9 3.844 63.16% -0.136 0.1561
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 140 62.86% 29.29 -0.081 31.43% -0.978 0.1277
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 74 75.68% 29.46 -0.912 29.73% -1.137 -0.1073
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 22 72.73% 37.32 4.27 31.82% -0.621 0.8111
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 268 65.91% 45.23 8.725 34.7% -0.874 1.0831

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 16582 44.96 27.73 66.88% 0.285 0.4949 -0.665
1 Thematic 3203 50.87 31.57 56.2% -0.451 0.1476 -0.828
2 Archipelago 16 18.75 30.44 87.5% -0.502 -0.1448 0.465
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2933 43.27 29.35 71.12% 0.021 0.1808 0.087
2 Coastline 394 46.86 28.87 69.04% 0.389 0.4499 0.513
2 Fragment 67 46.27 25.16 74.63% 0.288 0.2242 0.36
2 Heart 47 38.3 29.38 80.85% 0.155 -0.0831 0.832
2 Opposite Shores 595 43.66 29.86 66.72% 0.659 0.7924 -0.883
2 Thematic 621 45.11 33.25 66.02% -0.136 0.5005 -0.354
2 Top to Top 68 43.28 33.29 76.47% -0.161 -0.121 -0.45
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 47.0 100.0% 0.332 -0.7546
3 Coastline 8 33.33 38.63 75.0% 0.274 -0.2243 -0.732
3 Other 34 31.03 24.85 70.59% 0.04 0.1493 -0.234
3 Round (Default) 1125 39.27 28.9 72.36% -0.174 -0.2155 -0.267
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.203
3 Thematic 139 53.28 32.75 47.48% -0.64 -0.6042 0.412
4 Archipelago 4 25.0 74.0 100.0% 0.417
4 Coastline 5 0.0 24.6 80.0% -0.456 -0.3338 0.482
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 45 28.89 42.78 73.33% -0.45 -1.2994 0.43
4 Thematic 365 45.98 35.23 75.34% -0.018 -0.0348 -0.364
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1041 22.96 36.39 81.17% 0.343 0.1569 0.379
5 Archipelago 1 100.0 30.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% 0.049 0.0057 -0.341
5 Other 29 23.81 32.41 93.1% -0.035 -0.5429
5 Thematic 5 40.0 39.8 100.0%
6 Archipelago 16 100.0 33.06 93.75% 0.431 0.1256 -0.159
6 Coastline 43 0.0 27.47 100.0% 0.499 -0.1443
6 Other 63 45.65 35.87 60.32% 0.641 0.2469 -0.385
6 Star 23 39.13 26.87 26.09% -1.18 -0.7051 -0.574
6 Thematic 6 16.67 37.17 83.33% 0.001 0.3999 0.519
6 Two Centers (Default) 68 9.68 24.38 83.82% -1.043 -0.9991 -0.337

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 515 22.89 42.91% -0.587 -0.3155 -0.483
Aid From Lesser Spirits 597 22.2 33.5% -0.806 -0.7673 -0.503
All Things Weaken 278 25.59 40.29% -0.551 -0.0906 -0.364
Attenuated Essence 12 22.67 91.67% 1.237 1.443
Back Against the Wall 581 22.94 32.7% -1.252 -1.0902 -0.351
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 17.82 35.29% -0.435 -0.021 -0.76
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 16.43 14.29% -1.541 -1.236 -0.505
Disintegrating Ecosystem 951 20.96 38.8% 0.489 1.0158 -0.929
Downward Spiral 2283 21.81 49.32% 0.176 0.5287 -0.729
Erosion of Will 494 22.94 40.08% -0.859 -0.4512 -0.286
Intensifying Exploitation 13 19.85 53.85% -0.039 0.3484 -1.007
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 233 31.09 72.96% 0.541 0.016 -0.132
Memory Fades to Dust 2365 19.92 42.79% -0.357 0.1238 -0.775
Power Corrodes the Spirit 574 25.73 45.64% -0.244 0.0601 -0.606
Promising Farmlands 962 23.33 42.0% -0.197 0.3891 -0.336
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 29.71 42.86% -0.516 -0.3372 -0.682
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 12.75 0.0% -1.178 -0.644
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 135 30.75 81.48% 0.919 0.2406 0.543
The Border of Life and Death 5 38.0 100.0% 0.901 0.7711 0.301
Thriving Communities 584 26.25 45.21% -0.264 0.2287 -0.318
Thriving Crops 9 21.78 44.44% -0.54 -0.4515
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.368
Unnatural Proliferation 402 28.36 45.52% -0.53 -0.233 -0.469
Untended Land Crumbles 562 24.58 44.13% -0.211 0.1466 -0.346

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5612 43.5% 28.21 68.89% -0.525 0.3148 -0.101
B 5673 41.75% 28.99 70.1% -0.39 0.3891 0.094
C 5854 41.22% 29.11 69.51% -0.401 0.2534 0.146
D 5168 41.42% 29.2 69.83% -0.583 0.2161 0.11
E 2399 39.14% 31.37 70.28% -0.22 0.4093 -0.321
F 3462 41.11% 29.78 70.6% -0.461 0.2583 -0.02
G 3063 37.81% 30.05 71.56% -0.429 0.3131 0.089
H 3152 38.46% 31.16 73.54% 0.008 0.6563 -0.11
East 2622 46.94% 33.43 63.31% -0.861 -0.2565 -0.017
Northeast 1514 48.13% 33.77 64.86% -0.248 0.6332 0.305
Northwest 1134 46.86% 34.04 65.26% 0.485 1.1576 0.326
Southeast 452 47.57% 30.89 61.73% -0.569 0.0673 -0.432
Southwest 474 50.53% 29.75 63.71% -0.65 0.5145 0.375
West 2305 49.8% 31.97 60.17% -0.865 0.099 -1.046

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 838 0.0% 27.84 78.28% -1.512 -0.6291 -0.409
Not Using Events or Tokens 5414 48.25% 25.55 68.78% -0.383 -0.0507 0.115
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2757 13.26% 47.82 85.46% 0.44 -0.0947 0.896
Start of Game Growth 3658 17.0% 46.05 81.77% 0.964 0.6335 0.997
Unlimited Undo 3603 33.22% 35.88 75.52% -0.61 -0.6318 0.291
Using Tokens but Not Events 3387 34.98% 31.35 79.48% 0.524 0.4703 0.096

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5399 21.03 11.37%
II 9427 31.04 64.32%
III 8838 34.74 89.5%
IV 3902 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.409 Win Model: 0.606
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 19939 46.01% 28.38 65.07%
2 4644 43.62% 29.77 70.13%
3 1278 39.79% 29.25 70.58%
4 1469 28.8% 36.37 79.92%
5 18 25.0% 32.5 94.44%
6 218 29.82% 29.59 75.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 613
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7864
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6036
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3857
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 428
Lose: Invader deck ran out 218
Lose: Adversary condition 2756
Win: Sacrifice victory 119
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5356
Lose: Spirit destroyed 319

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)