Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 180 33.52% 27.56 3.255 78.33% 0.089 0.6563
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 198 43.43% 30.42 6.289 70.71% 0.748 1.437
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 245 53.88% 34.0 0.406 62.04% -0.686 0.3606
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 152 54.61% 35.28 7.507 55.26% -0.124 1.2648
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 74 70.27% 40.78 13.225 54.05% 0.014 1.7175
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 27 88.89% 34.07 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 324 59.26% 41.65 6.324 41.05% -1.304 0.8873
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 913 40.63% 23.33 -0.825 78.42% 0.488 0.7755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 759 41.91% 27.12 2.879 77.34% 0.506 0.289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 860 49.7% 35.15 6.635 76.51% 0.568 0.7808
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 831 53.33% 39.96 5.739 73.04% -0.756 -0.2592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 430 52.51% 42.37 9.895 70.7% 0.011 0.5483
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 350 74.27% 41.9 -0.755 53.71% -0.931 0.2479
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 688 62.18% 46.47 2.259 55.52% -1.838 -0.2653
The Kingdom of England 0 1 883 41.93% 22.83 0.735 76.1% 1.404 1.8188
The Kingdom of England 1 3 683 42.39% 30.54 2.204 72.47% -0.417 0.2963
The Kingdom of England 2 4 704 52.76% 30.08 1.836 60.51% -0.618 0.4109
The Kingdom of England 3 6 485 51.72% 34.57 1.139 50.93% -1.196 0.4625
The Kingdom of England 4 7 363 54.34% 38.51 -2.232 53.72% -1.251 0.3671
The Kingdom of England 5 9 199 57.65% 40.57 16.094 44.72% 0.226 2.2807
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1023 51.28% 46.6 9.275 44.77% -1.076 1.3299
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 431 43.95% 25.91 0.491 69.37% -0.275 0.5277
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 427 55.06% 27.77 2.515 63.7% -0.093 0.7802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 542 34.2% 21.86 2.835 19.56% -1.423 0.8478
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 331 37.58% 27.99 0.524 21.75% -1.503 0.8294
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 150 32.0% 30.71 -1.519 22.67% -2.414 -0.0069
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 123 30.89% 36.84 -3.244 29.27% -1.115 0.7483
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 871 40.37% 38.57 7.009 25.37% -1.639 0.6753
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 25.0% 35.0 3.055 75.0% -0.185 -0.337
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 11 54.55% 29.09 1.869 63.64% -0.042 0.8443
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 12 16.67% 36.0 3.424 66.67% -0.487 0.4883
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 57.14% 43.43 6.102 71.43% -0.092 0.6269
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 39.0 -0.06 50.0% -0.057 1.2356
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 0.0% 50.25 9.742 75.0% 0.002 1.3974
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 24 58.33% 45.96 6.411 41.67% -0.506 1.1337
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 712 44.19% 22.38 1.018 76.69% 0.489 0.6213
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 561 50.09% 26.05 0.706 73.44% -0.039 -0.0789
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 640 55.05% 28.3 1.888 71.09% -0.03 0.4489
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 490 60.82% 35.28 8.121 67.76% 1.004 1.2771
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 316 70.74% 33.68 5.182 52.85% -0.124 0.7142
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 179 72.67% 33.56 -1.475 44.13% -0.451 0.4225
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 562 67.9% 39.37 4.742 51.96% -0.906 0.3135
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 180 29.61% 24.77 0.005 83.33% -0.409 -0.5435
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 120 52.5% 26.53 -0.101 60.83% 0.03 0.8073
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 166 52.41% 31.93 8.075 64.46% 0.489 0.9659
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 113 69.03% 26.91 0.0 30.09%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 59 77.97% 31.08 -2.278 33.9% -0.52 0.8153
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 66.67% 39.56 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 239 70.76% 44.14 2.027 32.64% -1.437 0.4732

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 14812 45.91 27.73 67.94% 0.209 0.656 -0.374
1 Thematic 2976 51.72 32.16 57.02% 0.271 0.8737 -0.452
2 Archipelago 12 25.0 34.17 91.67% 0.497
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2620 45.04 29.22 72.02% 0.297 0.6882 0.285
2 Coastline 365 47.31 27.98 68.49% 0.045 0.1332 0.496
2 Fragment 57 45.61 25.07 73.68% -0.366 -0.3005 0.417
2 Heart 45 37.78 27.84 80.0% -0.131 0.1412 0.529
2 Opposite Shores 515 45.14 27.5 66.41% -0.146 0.347 -1.38
2 Thematic 568 45.45 33.82 67.78% -0.865 -0.3965 -0.191
2 Top to Top 52 40.38 29.75 76.92% 0.85 1.1317 -0.749
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 47.0 100.0% 0.23 -0.1526
3 Coastline 5 50.0 35.6 80.0% 0.006 -0.6329 -0.415
3 Other 30 30.77 26.73 73.33% 0.2 -0.8892 -0.2
3 Round (Default) 984 40.06 28.64 72.97% 0.188 0.4568 -0.138
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.057 -0.2762 -0.181
3 Thematic 123 56.2 32.64 47.15% -0.859 -1.0825 0.603
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0% 0.507 0.5148 0.689
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 40 30.0 43.48 77.5% 0.115 -0.3308 0.238
4 Thematic 313 46.45 35.17 75.08% 0.391 0.4875 -0.219
4 Trapezoid (Default) 924 24.53 34.8 81.28% -0.292 -0.4285 0.129
5 Coastline 2 0.0 28.5 100.0%
5 Other 20 26.67 31.85 95.0% 0.027 0.2966
5 Thematic 5 40.0 39.8 100.0%
6 Archipelago 5 100.0 32.8 80.0% 0.022 -0.4934 -0.133
6 Coastline 18 0.0 26.67 100.0% 0.064 -0.3761
6 Other 43 47.37 39.4 44.19% -0.753 0.1349 -0.034
6 Star 14 21.43 34.0 21.43% 0.144 1.0387 -0.456
6 Thematic 3 33.33 31.67 100.0% 0.151 0.514
6 Two Centers (Default) 26 33.33 27.08 88.46% -0.409 -0.0312 -0.176

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 485 23.22 43.51% -0.648 1.1832 -0.346
Aid From Lesser Spirits 567 22.5 34.39% -1.365 0.2893 -0.418
All Things Weaken 247 25.69 41.7% -1.541 0.4355 -0.435
Back Against the Wall 550 23.03 32.91% -1.615 0.2442 -0.278
Disintegrating Ecosystem 867 20.98 37.95% -1.174 0.8009 -0.975
Downward Spiral 2140 21.83 49.21% -1.591 0.3106 -0.766
Erosion of Will 459 23.15 40.74% -1.048 0.9956 -0.213
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 203 31.81 72.41% 0.424 0.9964 -0.261
Memory Fades to Dust 2186 19.96 43.0% -2.016 -0.0363 -0.839
Power Corrodes the Spirit 518 25.63 45.37% -1.811 0.081 -0.773
Promising Farmlands 906 23.26 41.17% -1.159 0.8798 -0.361
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 124 31.11 81.45% -0.352 0.0891 0.725
Thriving Communities 514 26.2 45.91% -0.746 1.2187 -0.367
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.323
Unnatural Proliferation 353 28.83 47.03% -1.288 0.6181 -0.371
Untended Land Crumbles 499 24.57 44.49% -1.006 1.0288 -0.305

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4925 44.85% 27.84 69.14% -0.308 0.4602 -0.01
B 4974 43.42% 28.52 70.61% -0.515 0.1775 0.183
C 5100 42.8% 28.54 69.84% 0.108 0.6728 0.273
D 4523 42.86% 28.91 70.62% 0.254 1.0227 0.369
E 1987 41.05% 31.26 70.06% 0.503 1.1024 -0.065
F 3062 42.02% 29.76 70.77% -0.268 0.4416 0.054
G 2716 39.05% 29.98 72.09% 0.752 1.4779 0.164
H 2772 39.29% 31.26 73.85% -0.243 0.4469 0.12
East 2392 47.73% 33.9 64.13% -0.649 -0.0268 0.27
Northeast 1381 49.05% 34.1 65.24% -0.141 0.5406 0.39
Northwest 1042 47.9% 34.22 65.45% 0.523 1.5899 0.315
Southeast 402 49.5% 31.03 61.94% -0.415 0.3125 -0.285
Southwest 400 52.5% 30.07 65.75% 0.463 1.4337 0.521
West 2091 50.8% 32.4 60.83% -1.344 -0.341 -0.956

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 663 0.0% 28.4 78.88% 0.592 2.6039 -0.265
Not Using Events or Tokens 4953 49.02% 25.58 69.98% 0.471 0.6848 0.14
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2120 13.8% 47.7 88.82% -0.287 -0.3803 0.347
Start of Game Growth 2906 17.8% 45.99 84.17% 0.974 0.2669 1.077
Unlimited Undo 2941 36.91% 35.37 76.67% 0.429 -0.2705 0.43
Using Tokens but Not Events 2882 35.22% 31.83 80.92% 0.297 0.2518 0.633

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4480 22.6 11.09%
II 8550 31.02 63.86%
III 8010 34.59 89.53%
IV 3551 37.83 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.288 Win Model: 0.109
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 17890 46.99% 28.52 66.1%
2 4169 44.85% 29.26 70.59%
3 1119 41.13% 29.11 71.22%
4 1296 30.03% 35.08 79.86%
5 9 50.0% 27.89 88.89%
6 108 39.06% 33.29 64.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 496
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7133
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5434
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3511
Lose: Invader deck ran out 200
Lose: Adversary condition 2478
Win: Sacrifice victory 105
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4934
Lose: Spirit destroyed 300

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)