Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 260 28.19% 25.47 -0.814 70.38% -0.352 -0.0049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 274 38.1% 26.16 -0.371 60.58% -0.37 -0.0924
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 322 48.44% 33.69 0.637 57.14% -0.648 0.1638
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 219 47.95% 39.92 6.303 55.25% -0.502 0.4962
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 90 65.56% 36.52 -4.523 47.78% -0.773 0.6095
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 36 72.22% 30.22 -5.599 27.78% -0.213 1.0844
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 412 51.49% 41.46 -1.295 39.32% -1.185 0.7455
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1149 39.02% 21.9 -2.392 71.37% -0.52 -0.3038
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 968 40.3% 25.98 -0.865 71.8% -0.307 -0.3775
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1028 46.39% 34.15 1.734 73.54% -0.16 -0.2436
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 940 52.33% 39.44 6.915 71.7% 0.37 0.586
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 609 44.65% 42.78 5.906 71.26% -0.055 0.1695
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 387 71.43% 41.14 1.271 52.71% -0.604 0.0678
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 900 59.28% 45.05 9.117 53.67% -0.072 1.2848
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1107 39.55% 20.63 -2.504 67.93% -0.406 -0.1962
The Kingdom of England 1 3 862 41.46% 28.39 1.951 67.17% 0.107 0.3943
The Kingdom of England 2 4 880 50.12% 29.0 2.207 56.93% -0.059 0.6741
The Kingdom of England 3 6 590 48.68% 34.12 2.581 49.15% -0.771 0.4479
The Kingdom of England 4 7 480 49.16% 37.84 -1.223 49.79% -1.545 -0.2649
The Kingdom of England 5 9 249 52.44% 37.7 -8.279 39.76% -1.182 0.3085
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1713 37.92% 47.02 8.474 46.58% -1.122 0.8721
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 553 42.57% 23.59 -1.067 62.57% -0.621 -0.2078
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 534 51.5% 25.86 -1.828 58.43% -0.898 -0.0914
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 611 32.3% 21.82 -3.877 19.31% -1.865 -0.7616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 424 31.68% 31.17 6.728 25.71% -0.615 0.783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 183 28.42% 28.72 -7.296 21.31% -1.905 -0.3915
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 166 28.92% 34.19 -2.363 25.3% -2.619 -1.8344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1088 35.95% 42.21 8.023 29.5% -1.328 0.1484
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 64 20.31% 19.55 -1.674 46.88% -0.207 0.0052
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 75 22.67% 19.65 -1.59 45.33% -0.455 -0.0701
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 84 27.38% 30.15 -2.119 54.76% -0.782 -0.4031
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 94 27.66% 42.22 8.869 58.51% -0.1 0.1723
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 102 16.67% 48.9 10.179 45.1% -0.152 0.7091
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 69 14.49% 62.61 3.777 69.57% -1.443 -0.7484
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 205 23.9% 57.6 9.034 60.0% -0.527 0.6136
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 893 41.38% 20.79 -1.592 70.32% -0.423 -0.2272
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 725 47.82% 23.8 -0.827 66.21% -0.171 -0.0752
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 887 49.94% 27.58 1.339 65.61% -0.317 -0.2083
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 632 58.21% 33.34 0.255 62.34% -0.734 -0.2671
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 370 67.95% 32.88 0.945 51.08% -0.677 -0.0569
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 228 66.52% 29.86 -3.853 39.47% -1.676 -0.6897
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 713 60.06% 40.18 3.541 51.89% -1.099 -0.1007
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 253 29.48% 21.97 -2.1 71.54% -0.448 -0.357
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 195 47.69% 24.31 2.039 54.36% -0.2 0.4597
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 274 38.32% 33.24 2.948 60.58% -0.046 0.3481
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 153 60.13% 30.42 7.932 32.68% -0.232 0.7994
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 82 70.73% 27.0 -6.917 26.83% -0.841 0.1169
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 28 60.71% 30.0 -2.228 25.0% -0.543 1.1741
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 303 62.54% 44.39 0.395 34.65% -1.077 0.9047

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 18817 43.14 27.03 64.2% -0.103 0.0977 -0.712
1 Thematic 3543 48.63 29.85 53.49% -0.365 0.3548 -0.839
2 Archipelago 25 33.33 27.16 72.0% 0.679 0.9338 -0.428
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3409 41.11 28.28 68.06% -0.592 -0.5839 0.093
2 Coastline 464 46.24 27.61 64.87% -0.627 -0.8316 0.099
2 Fragment 74 45.95 25.09 75.68% 0.806 0.5286 0.398
2 Heart 49 39.58 28.76 79.59% 0.156 -0.064 0.836
2 Opposite Shores 672 42.86 29.31 66.37% -0.329 -0.2719 -0.77
2 Thematic 726 42.7 30.51 61.02% -0.337 0.1146 -0.581
2 Top to Top 82 41.98 33.57 73.17% -0.825 -0.923 -0.127
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 42.0 100.0% 0.087 -0.7045
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% 0.082 -0.4848 -0.878
3 Other 38 30.3 26.24 71.05% -0.309 -0.3375 -0.212
3 Round (Default) 1316 36.91 28.61 69.98% -0.679 -0.9053 -0.262
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.203
3 Thematic 164 46.91 29.6 43.29% -0.613 -0.4158 0.255
4 Archipelago 4 25.0 74.0 100.0% 0.403
4 Coastline 5 0.0 24.6 80.0% 0.386
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 52 30.77 40.79 71.15% -0.451 -1.8088 0.488
4 Thematic 410 46.91 34.54 75.12% 1.239 1.041 -0.547
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1161 21.83 37.36 81.57% 0.743 0.4999 0.866
5 Archipelago 2 50.0 57.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.38
5 Other 40 18.75 28.15 80.0% 0.007 -1.0496
5 Thematic 6 33.33 33.17 83.33% -0.18 -0.6582
6 Archipelago 17 50.0 33.12 94.12% -0.202
6 Coastline 50 0.0 27.82 100.0%
6 Other 66 42.86 35.18 60.61% 0.019 -0.7182 -0.416
6 Star 25 40.0 26.24 32.0% -0.567
6 Thematic 15 53.33 28.13 53.33% -0.815 -0.0604 0.626
6 Two Centers (Default) 88 5.88 24.69 85.23% 0.104 -0.4758 -0.407

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 548 22.86 42.7% 0.145 0.3044 -0.388
Aid From Lesser Spirits 636 22.17 33.33% -0.58 -0.6668 -0.435
All Things Weaken 299 25.22 39.46% -0.983 -0.6409 -0.381
Attenuated Essence 31 21.68 61.29% -0.554 -0.4804 -0.933
Back Against the Wall 620 23.24 34.03% 0.123 0.1985 -0.297
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 25.58 53.49% 0.127 0.3176 -0.346
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 21.84 35.48% -0.662 -0.5386 -1.059
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1011 20.69 38.67% -0.04 0.3328 -0.721
Downward Spiral 2518 21.41 49.09% 0.157 0.2935 -0.532
Erosion of Will 529 22.62 40.64% -0.145 0.1493 -0.302
Intensifying Exploitation 43 20.6 46.51% -0.625 -0.3863 -1.468
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 255 31.2 73.33% 0.974 0.4422 -0.046
Memory Fades to Dust 2581 19.77 42.39% -0.016 0.2643 -0.641
Power Corrodes the Spirit 610 25.57 45.41% -0.099 0.054 -0.516
Promising Farmlands 1008 23.22 42.26% 0.258 0.6041 -0.185
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 24.97 21.88% -1.623 -1.4283 -0.874
Slow Dissolution of Will 22 27.32 45.45% 0.073 0.5241 -0.025
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 145 31.54 81.38% 0.9 0.1596 0.9
The Border of Life and Death 14 31.93 64.29% -0.432 -0.8654 0.802
Thriving Communities 622 25.77 43.89% -0.661 -0.3629 -0.338
Thriving Crops 25 30.52 72.0% 1.992 1.8892 1.106
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.277
Unnatural Proliferation 431 27.94 45.48% 0.061 0.2066 -0.402
Untended Land Crumbles 605 24.59 44.3% -0.729 -0.4291 -0.313

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6380 41.8% 27.55 66.47% -0.409 0.5853 -0.218
B 6506 39.69% 28.57 68.06% -0.242 0.6758 -0.079
C 6662 39.85% 28.72 67.52% -0.135 0.6074 -0.013
D 6044 38.96% 28.37 66.86% -0.282 0.6696 -0.176
E 2777 36.78% 30.73 68.49% -0.248 0.5325 -0.442
F 3917 39.19% 29.18 69.13% -0.175 0.718 -0.18
G 3436 36.17% 29.79 70.08% -0.042 0.8131 -0.021
H 3559 36.85% 30.71 71.65% -0.367 0.4809 -0.281
East 2975 44.96% 31.5 60.27% -0.822 -0.0525 -0.149
Northeast 1728 46.28% 32.01 62.15% 0.04 0.827 0.159
Northwest 1283 45.12% 32.03 61.96% -0.635 0.3488 -0.017
Southeast 537 44.51% 28.33 57.17% -0.353 0.5211 -0.513
Southwest 567 48.06% 26.93 58.2% -0.742 0.4653 -0.04
West 2617 47.74% 29.89 56.78% -1.397 -0.4623 -1.003

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 929 0.0% 25.96 73.74% -1.728 -1.0988 -0.379
Not Using Events or Tokens 6339 46.44% 24.19 64.66% -0.23 0.2763 -0.009
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3304 12.73% 48.36 82.05% 0.284 -0.351 0.922
Start of Game Growth 4305 16.18% 46.17 79.4% 1.609 1.2196 1.049
Unlimited Undo 4349 30.96% 36.09 71.53% -0.557 -0.5126 0.182
Using Tokens but Not Events 3831 34.86% 30.93 77.32% 0.416 0.3884 0.24

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7083 17.67 9.49%
II 10317 30.7 64.12%
III 9705 34.75 89.62%
IV 4254 38.22 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.808 Win Model: 0.678
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 22577 44.08% 27.47 62.34%
2 5362 41.91% 28.72 67.46%
3 1490 37.05% 28.78 68.12%
4 1640 28.36% 36.85 80.12%
5 30 15.0% 27.67 73.33%
6 260 26.92% 28.88 75.77%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 671
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8637
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6585
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4207
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1805
Lose: Invader deck ran out 248
Lose: Adversary condition 2974
Win: Sacrifice victory 139
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5752
Lose: Spirit destroyed 341

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)