Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 223 31.08% 26.99 -0.752 73.99% -0.163 0.1005
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 241 38.75% 27.82 -4.911 64.32% -1.191 -0.8451
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 293 48.81% 35.06 3.754 60.07% -0.666 0.1634
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 185 51.35% 38.48 9.145 55.14% -0.137 0.8542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 81 67.9% 39.15 -5.605 51.85% -0.81 0.5103
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 32 81.25% 33.09 -6.791 31.25% -1.344 0.3183
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 375 54.96% 42.08 3.307 40.0% -1.444 0.5686
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1034 39.29% 23.08 -1.697 75.44% -0.388 -0.3033
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 864 41.54% 27.36 -1.208 75.81% -0.293 -0.3887
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 958 47.98% 34.85 1.456 75.26% -0.489 -0.4998
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 884 53.06% 39.43 2.574 71.83% -0.665 -0.4676
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 544 45.97% 44.09 12.308 74.26% 1.165 1.3678
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 368 73.54% 41.81 1.292 53.53% -0.792 -0.2312
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 790 60.5% 45.02 3.414 53.29% -1.094 0.2438
The Kingdom of England 0 1 980 41.13% 22.0 -4.418 72.45% -1.193 -0.927
The Kingdom of England 1 3 776 42.99% 29.64 0.943 69.85% -0.166 0.0175
The Kingdom of England 2 4 804 51.4% 29.57 -1.898 58.33% -1.305 -0.5682
The Kingdom of England 3 6 559 49.81% 34.57 5.255 49.73% -0.857 0.2821
The Kingdom of England 4 7 433 51.29% 39.77 5.112 53.12% -0.99 0.0559
The Kingdom of England 5 9 241 53.78% 38.49 1.052 40.66% -1.369 0.2712
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1423 43.31% 46.92 7.353 45.68% -0.973 1.0693
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 474 44.19% 25.56 -1.513 68.14% -0.248 0.1544
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 494 52.64% 26.84 -0.112 60.73% -0.49 0.4651
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 579 33.74% 22.58 2.439 20.21% -1.149 -0.0755
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 383 34.03% 29.55 2.035 23.5% -1.265 0.0229
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 166 30.72% 30.16 0.203 21.69% -1.083 0.3186
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 137 29.93% 36.73 -0.143 28.47% -1.463 -0.5346
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1021 37.14% 41.74 14.497 28.7% -0.562 0.7818
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 34 17.65% 26.47 -5.129 55.88% -0.619 -0.6028
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 38 31.58% 24.26 -2.736 52.63% -0.435 -0.0045
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 46 23.91% 39.89 0.907 67.39% -0.552 -0.1112
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 44 45.45% 34.41 2.028 54.55% -0.604 -0.218
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 56 14.29% 49.84 5.806 46.43% -0.744 -0.1252
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 43 13.95% 69.28 18.224 76.74% 0.292 1.0757
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 173 23.7% 60.36 12.006 63.01% -0.147 1.1291
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 796 43.53% 21.74 -2.999 74.12% -0.489 -0.3091
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 632 49.27% 25.23 -1.614 69.78% -0.688 -0.6623
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 776 51.95% 28.18 1.032 68.43% -0.437 -0.2139
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 561 59.35% 35.26 1.273 66.13% -0.594 -0.1663
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 339 70.66% 33.35 3.749 51.92% -0.289 0.3196
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 197 71.58% 32.95 -0.029 43.65% -0.777 0.2322
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 665 62.09% 40.77 3.356 52.93% -0.773 0.1143
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 213 30.66% 23.62 -2.737 77.93% -0.781 -0.66
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 156 49.36% 25.15 -4.288 55.77% -1.041 -0.4003
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 228 44.3% 33.05 2.978 61.84% -0.46 -0.0344
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 140 62.86% 29.29 -2.854 31.43% -1.025 0.0895
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 76 76.32% 29.13 -0.563 28.95% -1.123 -0.2183
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 22 72.73% 37.32 12.469 31.82% -0.134 1.3616
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 285 64.77% 44.62 4.04 34.39% -0.968 0.8726

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 16994 44.52 27.66 66.3% 0.177 0.2312 -0.544
1 Thematic 3263 50.54 31.21 55.65% -0.699 -0.2211 -0.7
2 Archipelago 20 21.05 26.05 70.0% -0.892 -0.7885 -0.43
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3042 42.74 29.43 70.71% 0.204 0.2857 0.248
2 Coastline 412 46.75 28.42 67.23% -0.255 -0.4091 0.605
2 Fragment 67 46.27 25.16 74.63% 0.495 0.2456 0.418
2 Heart 47 38.3 29.38 80.85% 0.892
2 Opposite Shores 612 42.81 29.8 66.5% 0.264 0.2866 -0.723
2 Thematic 638 44.37 32.7 65.2% -0.277 0.1265 -0.334
2 Top to Top 70 43.48 33.64 77.14% 0.318 0.152 -0.347
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 47.0 100.0% 0.405 -1.1442
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% 0.175 -0.3385 -0.82
3 Other 35 30.0 24.77 71.43% 1.084 1.6244 -0.199
3 Round (Default) 1165 38.96 28.64 71.59% -0.293 -0.4082 -0.17
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.212
3 Thematic 142 52.14 32.06 46.48% -0.251 -0.171 0.394
4 Archipelago 4 25.0 74.0 100.0% 0.431
4 Coastline 5 0.0 24.6 80.0% -0.271 -0.0395 0.443
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 45 28.89 42.78 73.33% 0.042 -1.0416 0.466
4 Thematic 379 46.67 34.97 74.93% 0.241 -0.0216 -0.566
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1065 22.53 36.67 81.41% 0.676 0.5931 0.529
5 Archipelago 2 50.0 57.0 100.0% 0.23 -0.6863
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.36
5 Other 36 21.43 30.17 83.33% -0.582 -0.8672
5 Thematic 5 40.0 39.8 100.0%
6 Archipelago 17 50.0 33.12 94.12% 0.094 0.245 -0.177
6 Coastline 47 0.0 27.72 100.0% 0.556 -0.2446
6 Other 64 44.68 35.31 59.38% -0.198 -0.4306 -0.399
6 Star 23 39.13 26.87 26.09% -1.074 -1.0864 -0.567
6 Thematic 7 28.57 35.0 71.43% -0.347 0.0732 0.567
6 Two Centers (Default) 76 7.69 24.38 84.21% -0.667 -0.5626 -0.391

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 523 22.86 42.64% -0.701 -0.4585 -0.474
Aid From Lesser Spirits 603 22.18 33.33% -0.903 -0.98 -0.485
All Things Weaken 282 25.65 40.07% -0.585 -0.1922 -0.386
Attenuated Essence 15 23.13 93.33% 1.744 1.8509
Back Against the Wall 590 23.13 33.05% -0.384 -0.3266 -0.399
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 25 22.72 52.0% 0.162 0.3638 -0.863
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 21.15 23.08% -0.395 -0.1846 -0.732
Disintegrating Ecosystem 965 20.9 38.76% 0.293 0.7165 -0.865
Downward Spiral 2314 21.78 49.31% 0.348 0.5837 -0.728
Erosion of Will 499 23.02 40.28% -0.05 0.259 -0.276
Intensifying Exploitation 18 20.78 55.56% 0.179 0.4669 -0.711
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 238 31.03 73.53% 0.903 0.4092 -0.111
Memory Fades to Dust 2396 19.87 42.61% -0.174 0.1625 -0.793
Power Corrodes the Spirit 585 25.94 45.64% -0.505 -0.2841 -0.609
Promising Farmlands 969 23.36 42.21% 0.986 1.4396 -0.306
Shattered Fragments of Power 12 26.17 25.0% -0.744 -0.6926 -0.936
Slow Dissolution of Will 9 26.11 22.22% -0.564 -0.1648 -0.055
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 138 31.06 81.16% 0.755 0.0446 0.716
The Border of Life and Death 5 38.0 100.0% 0.931 0.5956 0.315
Thriving Communities 595 26.14 44.71% -0.872 -0.5093 -0.384
Thriving Crops 12 22.25 50.0% -0.282 -0.4794
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.353
Unnatural Proliferation 411 28.25 45.5% -0.159 0.0565 -0.511
Untended Land Crumbles 573 24.59 44.15% 0.325 0.607 -0.364

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5765 43.06% 28.17 68.4% -0.478 0.2624 -0.162
B 5854 40.99% 28.99 69.66% -0.49 0.2354 0.078
C 6019 40.85% 29.14 68.98% -0.427 0.1555 0.072
D 5352 40.7% 29.09 69.17% -0.624 0.0872 0.013
E 2501 38.24% 31.3 69.93% -0.21 0.3557 -0.335
F 3571 40.54% 29.63 70.26% -0.528 0.1428 -0.078
G 3139 37.55% 29.98 71.2% -0.359 0.2925 0.082
H 3240 38.04% 31.13 73.36% 0.085 0.6554 -0.159
East 2685 46.62% 33.0 62.68% -0.988 -0.4493 -0.065
Northeast 1550 47.78% 33.37 64.26% 0.036 0.6709 0.265
Northwest 1158 46.75% 33.68 64.68% -0.219 0.5906 0.268
Southeast 474 46.84% 30.16 60.34% -0.33 0.3762 -0.431
Southwest 503 49.6% 28.75 61.83% -0.92 0.0701 0.11
West 2368 49.49% 31.5 59.46% -0.708 0.1961 -0.893

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 848 0.0% 27.7 77.71% -1.767 -0.9911 -0.564
Not Using Events or Tokens 5542 47.91% 25.39 68.15% -0.191 0.1878 0.124
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2926 13.08% 47.96 84.11% 0.798 0.1801 0.83
Start of Game Growth 3850 16.75% 46.09 80.75% 1.027 0.6781 1.033
Unlimited Undo 3799 32.34% 35.98 74.18% -0.847 -0.8535 0.229
Using Tokens but Not Events 3469 35.25% 31.31 79.01% 0.499 0.4886 0.132

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5731 20.4 11.05%
II 9610 31.01 64.27%
III 8991 34.76 89.53%
IV 3979 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.322 Win Model: 0.489
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 20427 45.58% 28.25 64.48%
2 4798 43.12% 29.75 69.65%
3 1320 39.28% 28.93 69.85%
4 1507 28.74% 36.5 79.96%
5 26 18.75% 31.35 80.77%
6 233 27.13% 29.29 75.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 632
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8001
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6149
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3933
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 676
Lose: Invader deck ran out 226
Lose: Adversary condition 2819
Win: Sacrifice victory 123
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5431
Lose: Spirit destroyed 321

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)