Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 132 34.35% 26.83 -0.089 78.79% -0.534 -0.2445
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 138 43.48% 30.18 1.198 72.46% -0.756 -0.3417
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 171 47.37% 35.47 4.307 67.84% -0.968 -0.0853
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 120 52.5% 36.33 4.099 59.17% -1.617 -0.3744
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 60 66.67% 40.6 6.584 53.33% -1.659 -0.1621
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 25 88.0% 35.28 4.657 36.0% -1.736 0.2027
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 246 57.72% 43.58 7.147 46.34% -2.498 -0.4547
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 963 40.64% 23.34 -1.283 79.13% -0.191 -0.1497
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 774 43.8% 26.64 0.481 77.39% -0.26 -0.2782
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 853 50.48% 35.15 4.591 76.44% -0.246 -0.2321
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 683 57.62% 38.54 6.36 67.06% -0.715 -0.4318
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 410 65.06% 39.71 7.377 64.88% -0.66 -0.3011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 371 76.8% 40.65 7.962 50.94% -1.328 -0.5035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 850 58.33% 48.56 10.001 59.06% -1.605 -0.3655
The Kingdom of England 0 1 941 41.55% 22.42 -1.751 74.6% -0.56 -0.2303
The Kingdom of England 1 3 693 44.96% 30.49 2.237 71.86% -0.586 -0.0697
The Kingdom of England 2 4 739 51.73% 29.94 2.016 59.4% -1.257 -0.2838
The Kingdom of England 3 6 529 54.79% 35.4 4.157 53.69% -1.715 -0.1352
The Kingdom of England 4 7 411 54.95% 36.86 5.106 49.39% -1.999 -0.5039
The Kingdom of England 5 9 188 65.57% 37.57 5.738 36.7% -2.335 -0.2651
The Kingdom of England 6 11 884 51.61% 48.09 9.291 50.45% -2.555 -0.3112
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 476 44.73% 25.46 -0.435 68.7% -0.871 -0.3591
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 437 55.17% 27.1 0.385 61.1% -1.031 -0.1283
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 570 33.8% 21.49 -2.267 18.77% -4.231 -2.0902
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 348 38.44% 26.39 -0.093 18.97% -4.328 -2.1294
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 182 36.26% 28.26 0.864 17.58% -4.349 -2.1884
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 141 32.62% 35.74 3.538 26.24% -4.042 -2.2241
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 843 39.9% 37.49 4.407 25.5% -4.169 -2.0774
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 749 44.2% 22.0 -1.79 77.7% -0.142 -0.0538
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 594 49.83% 25.27 -0.068 71.89% -0.377 -0.3419
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 650 57.76% 27.4 0.895 68.15% -0.492 -0.2545
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 525 60.38% 35.3 4.797 66.67% -0.638 -0.3479
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 331 70.86% 33.13 3.735 50.76% -1.226 -0.4454
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 193 73.12% 33.8 4.056 45.6% -1.517 -0.349
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 591 67.02% 39.35 5.746 52.45% -1.661 -0.5389
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 136 27.41% 23.85 -1.988 84.56% -0.285 -0.3736
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 75 41.33% 27.37 -0.068 66.67% -1.159 -0.3801
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 107 49.53% 32.07 1.906 63.55% -1.271 -0.859
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 91 67.03% 26.32 -0.283 28.57% -2.754 -1.5092
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 45 75.56% 31.42 3.077 35.56% -1.908 -0.8001
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 62.5% 38.19 4.494 31.25% -2.191 -0.2069
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 176 69.36% 47.14 9.131 40.34% -2.445 -0.5727

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14901 46.21 26.94 -0.977 67.93% -0.219 -0.1326
1 Thematic 3300 51.74 32.55 1.458 57.03% -0.637 -0.3602
2 Archipelago 2 50.0 36.0 5.644 100.0% 0.198 0.2045
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2780 45.03 29.86 0.646 72.48% 0.162 0.1876
2 Coastline 384 47.86 26.71 -1.082 66.67% -0.114 -0.1386
2 Fragment 79 57.14 24.08 -1.77 58.23% -0.143 0.0795
2 Heart 47 31.91 27.79 -0.302 72.34% -0.122 -0.022
2 Opposite Shores 511 45.27 27.56 -0.618 68.1% 0.003 0.0685
2 Thematic 691 44.71 34.14 1.6 64.25% -0.172 -0.2389
2 Top to Top 56 46.43 26.93 -0.533 73.21% 0.325 0.2564
3 Coastline 3 66.67 37.0 0.79 66.67% 0.2 0.0493
3 Other 29 28.57 28.66 -1.344 72.41% -0.713 -0.5402
3 Round (Default) 1037 44.54 28.03 -0.272 69.43% 0.187 0.1481
3 Sunrise 9 66.67 23.22 -0.969 55.56% -0.035 -0.2946
3 Thematic 143 47.52 35.63 1.441 55.24% -0.118 -0.4843
4 Leaf 2 50.0 22.5 -2.515 100.0% 0.235 0.3068
4 Other 39 28.21 40.51 1.213 74.36% -0.339 -0.408
4 Thematic 291 42.86 34.49 -0.577 72.51% 0.001 -0.9956
4 Trapezoid (Default) 926 23.79 31.57 0.237 84.99% 0.458 0.4663
5 Other 6 16.67 37.67 1.552 100.0% 0.375 -0.0855
5 Thematic 4 50.0 40.5 3.147 100.0% 0.513 -1.8783

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 531 23.23 -3.452 42.75% -2.453 -0.3832
Aid From Lesser Spirits 640 21.29 -4.25 31.87% -2.91 -0.997
All Things Weaken 175 25.82 -2.89 42.86% -2.324 -0.1646
Back Against the Wall 610 22.9 -3.857 33.44% -2.835 -0.7481
Disintegrating Ecosystem 958 20.45 -4.927 37.16% -2.628 -0.4062
Downward Spiral 2363 22.35 -3.494 50.78% -2.104 -0.0821
Erosion of Will 517 22.68 -3.478 41.39% -2.493 -0.2856
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 132 32.25 0.285 70.45% -0.798 -0.1194
Memory Fades to Dust 2349 20.19 -4.459 43.34% -2.515 -0.2997
Power Corrodes the Spirit 356 25.83 -2.966 46.07% -2.107 -0.0858
Promising Farmlands 1020 22.32 -3.942 41.67% -2.457 -0.249
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 90 30.0 0.061 82.22% -0.225 0.1862
Thriving Communities 370 25.6 -2.971 43.78% -2.194 -0.1062
Tipping Point 496 21.47 -4.018 40.52% -2.504 -0.2788
Unnatural Proliferation 252 28.4 -1.504 44.84% -2.027 0.0539
Untended Land Crumbles 358 23.49 -3.833 42.18% -2.363 -0.2613

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5508 45.42% 26.74 -0.75 69.06% 0.261 -0.4266
B 5456 43.4% 27.62 -0.333 71.68% 0.344 -0.4401
C 5734 43.06% 27.76 -0.244 71.22% 0.364 -0.6486
D 5178 43.94% 27.51 -0.42 70.37% 0.304 -0.4732
E 1385 41.18% 31.59 0.42 68.59% 0.252 -0.6419
F 2361 41.25% 29.91 0.02 71.24% 0.251 -0.5902
G 2121 40.0% 30.14 0.167 71.43% 0.293 -0.5388
H 2169 39.87% 31.14 0.72 73.81% 0.407 -0.4325
East 1436 44.17% 34.83 1.687 63.79% 0.266 -0.3103
Northeast 1525 47.51% 34.8 1.975 64.2% 0.37 -0.1543
Northwest 1187 47.17% 34.16 1.648 63.86% 0.464 -0.1313
Southeast 313 46.65% 31.23 -0.153 63.9% 0.108 -0.5215
Southwest 327 50.46% 29.91 -1.286 64.53% 0.163 -0.0353
West 1346 51.16% 32.17 0.404 57.06% -0.001 -0.3277

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 751 0.0% 27.54 -2.816 77.36% -1.735 0.3182
Not Using Events or Tokens 5100 51.0% 25.38 -1.061 69.41% -0.271 -0.0559
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2278 15.17% 47.53 5.847 87.66% 0.848 0.1613
Start of Game Growth 2947 17.74% 46.16 5.831 85.31% 0.829 0.3599
Unlimited Undo 3102 37.58% 35.67 1.525 76.43% 0.296 -0.1267
Using Tokens but Not Events 2727 33.94% 30.85 0.268 81.08% 0.091 0.0399

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4665 22.37 11.55%
II 8868 30.88 64.28%
III 8126 34.39 89.05%
IV 3581 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.087 Win Model: -0.269
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 18253 47.23% 27.99 65.98%
2 4512 45.27% 29.74 69.95%
3 1213 44.88% 28.95 67.85%
4 1262 28.3% 32.49 81.85%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 398
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5672
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4184
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2796
Lose: Invader deck ran out 214
Lose: Adversary condition 2360
Win: Sacrifice victory 111
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5251
Lose: Spirit destroyed 359

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)