Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 105 34.62% 26.78 -0.121 80.0% -0.389 -0.106
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 100 48.0% 29.67 1.105 71.0% -0.649 -0.2545
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 141 46.1% 35.42 4.192 66.67% -1.013 -0.1525
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 98 46.94% 37.16 4.309 61.22% -1.637 -0.3873
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 47 70.21% 38.34 5.444 46.81% -1.822 -0.2876
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 23 86.96% 33.48 3.952 30.43% -1.889 0.1787
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 172 49.42% 46.48 7.887 52.33% -2.514 -0.4362
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 829 42.27% 22.85 -1.395 77.32% -0.232 -0.1891
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 661 44.22% 26.71 0.565 77.46% -0.184 -0.2098
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 733 51.72% 34.93 4.53 75.31% -0.243 -0.2429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 573 58.24% 38.29 6.205 66.14% -0.707 -0.4141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 350 63.53% 40.01 7.531 65.43% -0.603 -0.2327
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 335 77.41% 40.27 7.793 50.15% -1.329 -0.4904
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 751 57.52% 48.97 10.157 59.79% -1.52 -0.272
The Kingdom of England 0 1 821 41.55% 22.44 -1.694 74.42% -0.522 -0.1916
The Kingdom of England 1 3 574 46.49% 30.4 2.27 71.78% -0.494 -0.0046
The Kingdom of England 2 4 651 52.13% 29.82 1.995 58.83% -1.234 -0.2695
The Kingdom of England 3 6 448 55.2% 35.15 4.221 53.13% -1.63 -0.0504
The Kingdom of England 4 7 351 54.07% 36.57 5.074 49.0% -1.964 -0.4499
The Kingdom of England 5 9 171 65.66% 37.42 5.758 36.26% -2.284 -0.2128
The Kingdom of England 6 11 795 52.04% 48.04 9.335 50.19% -2.503 -0.2455
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 426 43.87% 25.32 -0.438 68.31% -0.867 -0.3421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 384 56.28% 26.77 0.264 59.9% -1.0 -0.1111
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 509 34.71% 21.48 -2.27 18.66% -4.166 -2.0388
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 313 37.94% 26.58 -0.077 19.17% -4.292 -2.1073
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 165 36.97% 28.23 0.956 17.58% -4.301 -2.1506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 135 33.33% 35.68 3.546 25.93% -3.99 -2.1642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 723 38.35% 38.02 4.627 26.28% -4.111 -1.9827
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 655 43.83% 21.81 -1.853 76.79% -0.18 -0.092
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 522 49.12% 25.29 -0.002 72.41% -0.3 -0.2894
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 582 58.51% 27.05 0.772 66.84% -0.503 -0.2834
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 467 58.23% 35.63 4.935 66.81% -0.633 -0.3503
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 295 70.0% 33.57 3.891 51.53% -1.154 -0.3837
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 177 72.94% 34.07 4.168 46.33% -1.442 -0.2744
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 514 67.6% 38.74 5.663 50.97% -1.642 -0.5104
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 105 29.52% 23.27 -2.131 82.86% -0.309 -0.4314
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 42 33.33% 30.0 0.781 73.81% -0.817 -0.1014
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 84 50.0% 31.85 1.508 61.9% -1.373 -0.9352
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 69 66.67% 26.67 -0.327 28.99% -2.725 -1.4655
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 36 69.44% 31.89 3.114 36.11% -1.957 -0.8166
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 61.54% 41.0 5.477 38.46% -1.808 0.2529
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 125 76.23% 43.55 7.617 33.6% -2.555 -0.6191

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 12743 46.8 26.64 -1.066 67.16% -0.444 -0.0854
1 Thematic 2910 51.36 32.63 1.538 57.49% -0.866 -0.3628
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2445 45.48 29.94 0.715 72.47% 0.111 0.3066
2 Coastline 314 47.23 25.62 -1.454 66.56% -0.196 -0.0532
2 Fragment 69 58.21 24.99 -1.126 56.52% -0.137 0.2851
2 Heart 44 34.09 27.89 -0.233 70.45% -0.224 0.0682
2 Opposite Shores 427 43.84 28.14 -0.343 70.26% 0.092 0.3169
2 Thematic 612 43.76 34.06 1.559 63.56% -0.311 -0.266
2 Top to Top 47 48.94 27.79 -0.208 70.21% 0.21 0.3445
3 Coastline 2 100.0 45.0 2.649 50.0% 0.177 0.1439
3 Other 25 33.33 27.8 -1.09 76.0% -0.29 0.1253
3 Round (Default) 902 44.87 27.71 -0.422 67.18% 0.189 0.2283
3 Sunrise 9 66.67 23.22 -1.002 55.56% 0.033 -0.1901
3 Thematic 132 46.15 36.17 1.748 54.55% -0.099 -0.4553
4 Leaf 2 50.0 22.5 -2.628 100.0% 0.29 0.3177
4 Other 32 31.25 40.84 1.428 75.0% -0.061 0.0524
4 Thematic 264 42.21 33.91 -0.818 70.83% 0.012 -1.0739
4 Trapezoid (Default) 828 23.44 32.16 0.377 84.06% 0.669 0.6518
5 Other 5 20.0 38.6 1.302 100.0% 0.395 0.1768
5 Thematic 4 50.0 40.5 3.31 100.0% 0.492 -2.3362

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 469 22.71 -3.636 40.94% -2.51 -0.4397
Aid From Lesser Spirits 578 21.22 -4.239 30.97% -2.92 -1.0016
All Things Weaken 134 25.66 -2.918 42.54% -2.247 -0.092
Back Against the Wall 535 22.82 -3.793 33.83% -2.784 -0.6875
Disintegrating Ecosystem 864 20.49 -4.862 37.04% -2.619 -0.3952
Downward Spiral 2083 22.14 -3.545 50.46% -2.108 -0.0914
Erosion of Will 462 22.84 -3.357 41.77% -2.453 -0.243
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 110 32.11 0.379 71.82% -0.706 -0.0017
Memory Fades to Dust 2048 20.26 -4.394 42.97% -2.512 -0.2973
Power Corrodes the Spirit 268 25.41 -3.213 45.15% -2.139 -0.1195
Promising Farmlands 896 21.85 -4.094 41.18% -2.486 -0.2735
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 75 31.0 0.459 78.67% -0.325 0.1102
Thriving Communities 275 24.86 -3.176 42.55% -2.231 -0.1334
Tipping Point 496 21.47 -3.998 40.52% -2.504 -0.2856
Unnatural Proliferation 189 28.25 -1.49 47.09% -1.978 0.1
Untended Land Crumbles 276 22.55 -4.227 39.13% -2.446 -0.3475

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 4877 45.37% 26.61 -0.759 68.61% 0.41 -0.6795
B 4800 43.32% 27.53 -0.333 71.33% 0.48 -0.705
C 5031 43.27% 27.6 -0.253 71.26% 0.526 -0.889
D 4566 43.99% 27.5 -0.409 69.78% 0.444 -0.733
E 1038 42.3% 31.95 0.469 66.38% 0.289 -0.9875
F 1954 41.56% 30.05 0.103 70.37% 0.395 -0.8476
G 1764 39.58% 30.47 0.298 71.26% 0.443 -0.7878
H 1778 40.99% 31.27 0.754 72.55% 0.481 -0.7587
East 1310 43.86% 34.78 1.684 63.13% 0.458 -0.493
Northeast 1378 47.33% 34.4 1.775 63.43% 0.513 -0.3773
Northwest 1081 46.9% 34.14 1.647 63.09% 0.648 -0.3173
Southeast 252 48.02% 31.34 -0.216 63.89% 0.281 -0.7207
Southwest 276 49.64% 30.41 -1.104 65.94% 0.37 -0.2386
West 1223 50.0% 32.11 0.374 56.34% 0.151 -0.5345

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 637 0.0% 26.25 -3.28 75.2% -1.863 0.1812
Not Using Events or Tokens 4344 51.43% 25.19 -1.129 68.53% -0.282 -0.0633
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1908 14.76% 47.78 5.895 87.63% 0.821 0.1165
Start of Game Growth 2502 17.64% 46.63 6.053 85.13% 0.872 0.4181
Unlimited Undo 2609 38.66% 35.52 1.614 75.97% 0.382 -0.0301
Using Tokens but Not Events 2302 34.49% 30.62 0.255 80.71% 0.126 0.0786

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4074 22.34 11.34%
II 7663 30.75 63.53%
III 7019 34.26 88.83%
IV 3060 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.096 Win Model: -0.563
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 15687 47.65% 27.8 65.4%
2 3933 45.35% 29.77 69.95%
3 1065 45.09% 28.79 65.73%
4 1131 28.1% 32.79 80.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 322
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4678
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3358
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2282
Lose: Invader deck ran out 187
Lose: Adversary condition 2037
Win: Sacrifice victory 90
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4641
Lose: Spirit destroyed 326

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)