Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 116 35.65% 26.68 -0.213 78.45% -0.496 -0.2153
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 112 46.43% 30.21 1.292 73.21% -0.589 -0.1991
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 146 45.89% 35.3 4.165 66.44% -1.038 -0.1673
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 102 49.02% 36.89 4.274 60.78% -1.599 -0.3424
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 53 67.92% 39.08 5.729 49.06% -1.845 -0.3166
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 23 86.96% 33.48 3.964 30.43% -1.876 0.1505
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 193 52.85% 45.63 7.808 50.26% -2.476 -0.4055
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 880 40.93% 23.21 -1.282 78.41% -0.203 -0.1655
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 698 44.09% 26.69 0.555 77.79% -0.18 -0.2103
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 774 50.85% 35.11 4.599 76.23% -0.221 -0.2166
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 610 58.59% 37.94 6.077 65.25% -0.749 -0.4574
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 366 63.46% 39.71 7.374 64.48% -0.664 -0.3028
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 353 77.17% 40.46 7.872 50.42% -1.329 -0.5006
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 772 57.68% 48.94 10.137 59.72% -1.55 -0.3054
The Kingdom of England 0 1 857 41.37% 22.48 -1.686 74.56% -0.527 -0.1955
The Kingdom of England 1 3 605 45.9% 30.34 2.221 71.4% -0.549 -0.0486
The Kingdom of England 2 4 679 51.89% 29.69 1.942 58.32% -1.279 -0.3094
The Kingdom of England 3 6 471 56.17% 34.92 4.134 52.23% -1.671 -0.0922
The Kingdom of England 4 7 367 55.0% 36.32 4.959 47.96% -2.012 -0.5106
The Kingdom of England 5 9 172 65.87% 37.33 5.717 36.05% -2.305 -0.2356
The Kingdom of England 6 11 816 52.05% 47.79 9.254 49.75% -2.542 -0.2902
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 437 44.37% 25.23 -0.472 68.19% -0.875 -0.3496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 395 56.49% 26.51 0.155 58.99% -1.057 -0.1638
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 545 33.89% 21.37 -2.289 18.35% -4.209 -2.08
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 325 38.08% 26.5 -0.085 19.08% -4.308 -2.1215
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 170 36.47% 28.04 0.873 17.06% -4.34 -2.1977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 137 32.85% 35.83 3.583 26.28% -4.022 -2.1985
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 747 38.6% 38.01 4.641 26.24% -4.132 -2.0166
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 680 43.68% 21.88 -1.819 77.21% -0.163 -0.0745
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 548 49.17% 25.36 0.001 72.45% -0.323 -0.3031
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 601 58.49% 27.15 0.802 67.22% -0.496 -0.2732
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 486 58.84% 35.45 4.883 66.46% -0.639 -0.3532
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 306 70.43% 33.32 3.782 50.98% -1.19 -0.4222
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 181 73.56% 33.8 4.056 45.86% -1.464 -0.3034
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 532 67.96% 38.77 5.691 51.13% -1.637 -0.5044
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 114 29.2% 23.33 -2.174 83.33% -0.299 -0.4185
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 54 31.48% 29.2 0.513 72.22% -1.041 -0.3223
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 91 51.65% 31.7 1.621 61.54% -1.317 -0.8744
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 75 65.33% 27.39 0.046 30.67% -2.665 -1.414
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 36 69.44% 31.89 3.103 36.11% -1.971 -0.8477
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 60.0% 39.07 4.841 33.33% -2.043 0.0032
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 150 74.15% 44.65 8.242 35.33% -2.522 -0.5876

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 13373 46.58 26.64 -1.056 67.18% -0.44 -0.1132
1 Thematic 3019 51.42 32.57 1.516 57.4% -0.891 -0.4175
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2581 45.44 30.01 0.724 72.26% 0.124 0.3209
2 Coastline 332 46.91 25.83 -1.368 66.57% -0.215 -0.0638
2 Fragment 76 58.11 24.08 -1.624 56.58% -0.231 0.1736
2 Heart 45 33.33 27.8 -0.23 71.11% -0.206 0.1062
2 Opposite Shores 439 43.54 27.95 -0.417 70.16% 0.072 0.2958
2 Thematic 640 44.2 34.18 1.635 63.44% -0.325 -0.2969
2 Top to Top 49 51.02 27.0 -0.436 69.39% 0.198 0.3376
3 Coastline 2 100.0 45.0 2.663 50.0% 0.183 0.1363
3 Other 27 30.77 28.67 -0.754 77.78% -0.235 0.2038
3 Round (Default) 944 44.38 27.77 -0.385 67.9% 0.227 0.2849
3 Sunrise 9 66.67 23.22 -0.995 55.56% 0.033 -0.1647
3 Thematic 139 47.45 35.86 1.618 55.4% -0.116 -0.4766
4 Leaf 2 50.0 22.5 -2.607 100.0% 0.293 0.3563
4 Other 34 29.41 41.03 1.739 76.47% 0.054 0.1847
4 Thematic 269 41.79 33.91 -0.858 71.0% -0.045 -1.1052
4 Trapezoid (Default) 850 23.89 32.08 0.355 84.24% 0.697 0.7354
5 Other 5 20.0 38.6 1.343 100.0% 0.394 0.1951
5 Thematic 4 50.0 40.5 3.259 100.0% 0.472 -2.4841

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 495 22.98 -3.507 41.62% -2.476 -0.4058
Aid From Lesser Spirits 598 21.1 -4.294 30.94% -2.932 -1.0101
All Things Weaken 145 25.61 -2.982 41.38% -2.314 -0.1604
Back Against the Wall 561 22.81 -3.815 33.51% -2.799 -0.7029
Disintegrating Ecosystem 891 20.51 -4.848 37.15% -2.614 -0.3885
Downward Spiral 2175 22.21 -3.5 50.57% -2.095 -0.0762
Erosion of Will 477 22.73 -3.404 41.3% -2.468 -0.258
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 117 31.35 0.071 70.94% -0.763 -0.0694
Memory Fades to Dust 2126 20.2 -4.431 42.76% -2.517 -0.3021
Power Corrodes the Spirit 296 25.11 -3.289 44.93% -2.169 -0.1524
Promising Farmlands 929 21.91 -4.047 41.23% -2.477 -0.2641
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 79 30.9 0.451 79.75% -0.295 0.1352
Thriving Communities 300 24.65 -3.241 41.67% -2.255 -0.1593
Tipping Point 496 21.47 -3.979 40.52% -2.496 -0.2746
Unnatural Proliferation 208 28.14 -1.603 44.71% -2.065 0.0214
Untended Land Crumbles 294 23.06 -4.002 40.48% -2.379 -0.2827

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5069 45.42% 26.65 -0.742 68.75% 0.42 -0.6816
B 4983 43.39% 27.52 -0.328 71.42% 0.489 -0.7067
C 5257 43.16% 27.63 -0.247 70.84% 0.517 -0.9114
D 4738 43.81% 27.47 -0.41 69.97% 0.457 -0.7341
E 1141 42.16% 31.85 0.526 66.96% 0.35 -0.9485
F 2073 41.22% 29.93 0.081 70.77% 0.403 -0.8515
G 1871 39.76% 30.25 0.224 71.19% 0.436 -0.8063
H 1891 40.78% 31.13 0.728 72.5% 0.495 -0.7622
East 1349 43.93% 34.69 1.645 63.08% 0.467 -0.4933
Northeast 1425 47.45% 34.55 1.868 63.58% 0.564 -0.3374
Northwest 1120 47.06% 34.16 1.676 63.21% 0.667 -0.3074
Southeast 272 47.43% 31.4 -0.133 63.97% 0.317 -0.687
Southwest 291 50.52% 30.25 -1.215 64.6% 0.346 -0.2536
West 1264 50.36% 32.03 0.347 56.25% 0.178 -0.5213

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 676 0.0% 26.79 -3.099 75.89% -1.831 0.2175
Not Using Events or Tokens 4586 51.19% 25.29 -1.082 68.62% -0.286 -0.0654
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1969 14.7% 47.75 5.895 87.86% 0.841 0.1362
Start of Game Growth 2585 17.61% 46.53 6.015 85.42% 0.879 0.4278
Unlimited Undo 2706 38.25% 35.39 1.562 76.05% 0.363 -0.0539
Using Tokens but Not Events 2446 33.87% 30.6 0.25 81.19% 0.131 0.0798

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4265 22.33 11.16%
II 8027 30.75 63.61%
III 7333 34.25 88.9%
IV 3214 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.1 Win Model: -0.569
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 16429 47.47% 27.77 65.43%
2 4136 45.35% 29.82 69.78%
3 1114 44.83% 28.81 66.43%
4 1160 28.27% 32.74 81.03%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 336
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4961
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3595
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2435
Lose: Invader deck ran out 201
Lose: Adversary condition 2158
Win: Sacrifice victory 93
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4828
Lose: Spirit destroyed 337

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)