Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 127 35.71% 26.51 -0.245 77.95% -0.552 -0.2743
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 127 42.52% 30.71 1.271 74.02% -0.691 -0.2972
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 159 45.91% 35.55 4.332 67.3% -0.987 -0.1091
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 107 49.53% 37.16 4.475 61.68% -1.53 -0.2789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 58 67.24% 40.1 6.249 51.72% -1.704 -0.1824
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 23 86.96% 33.48 3.941 30.43% -1.881 0.096
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 207 53.62% 45.19 7.605 49.28% -2.527 -0.4775
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 923 40.24% 23.31 -1.285 78.87% -0.209 -0.1679
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 723 43.66% 26.75 0.557 78.01% -0.194 -0.2227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 812 50.81% 35.1 4.582 76.48% -0.226 -0.221
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 633 58.35% 38.2 6.187 66.03% -0.723 -0.4348
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 380 64.03% 40.02 7.492 65.53% -0.614 -0.2471
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 356 76.79% 40.66 7.945 50.84% -1.326 -0.4965
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 794 58.12% 48.96 10.136 59.82% -1.553 -0.3121
The Kingdom of England 0 1 890 41.41% 22.47 -1.696 74.83% -0.52 -0.1878
The Kingdom of England 1 3 639 45.16% 30.44 2.214 71.83% -0.561 -0.0574
The Kingdom of England 2 4 703 51.68% 29.9 2.012 59.17% -1.249 -0.2803
The Kingdom of England 3 6 480 56.16% 34.88 4.08 52.29% -1.685 -0.107
The Kingdom of England 4 7 378 55.26% 36.27 4.902 47.88% -2.042 -0.5441
The Kingdom of England 5 9 175 66.47% 37.23 5.668 36.0% -2.3 -0.2335
The Kingdom of England 6 11 845 51.56% 48.08 9.297 50.41% -2.552 -0.2968
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 456 44.93% 25.33 -0.466 68.42% -0.86 -0.3451
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 416 56.52% 26.62 0.183 59.62% -1.047 -0.1515
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 555 33.82% 21.45 -2.279 18.56% -4.218 -2.0813
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 336 38.02% 26.35 -0.148 18.75% -4.342 -2.1569
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 176 37.5% 28.45 1.066 18.18% -4.239 -2.0924
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 139 33.09% 35.95 3.59 26.62% -4.022 -2.2023
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 782 39.18% 37.75 4.477 25.83% -4.168 -2.0608
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 709 43.59% 21.98 -1.799 77.43% -0.15 -0.0649
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 578 49.56% 25.34 -0.011 72.15% -0.349 -0.3283
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 629 57.78% 27.34 0.878 68.04% -0.475 -0.2438
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 505 59.6% 35.29 4.8 66.14% -0.656 -0.3699
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 316 70.74% 33.07 3.655 50.32% -1.243 -0.4654
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 192 72.97% 33.86 4.104 45.83% -1.487 -0.3295
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 567 66.91% 39.11 5.697 52.03% -1.651 -0.5192
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 123 27.87% 23.43 -2.134 83.74% -0.312 -0.4178
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 65 38.46% 28.45 0.301 70.77% -0.987 -0.244
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 99 49.49% 31.96 1.736 62.63% -1.326 -0.8944
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 81 65.43% 26.48 -0.384 28.4% -2.825 -1.5757
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 40 72.5% 30.4 2.446 32.5% -2.113 -0.9865
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 60.0% 39.07 4.804 33.33% -2.078 -0.0594
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 171 70.83% 46.56 8.858 39.18% -2.472 -0.5665

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14010 46.38 26.76 -1.02 67.69% -0.327 0.0053
1 Thematic 3135 51.27 32.53 1.479 57.26% -0.777 -0.2784
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2666 45.19 30.07 0.714 72.32% 0.165 0.3653
2 Coastline 360 47.73 26.3 -1.295 66.11% -0.193 -0.0387
2 Fragment 76 58.11 24.08 -1.638 56.58% -0.187 0.209
2 Heart 47 31.91 27.79 -0.353 72.34% -0.147 0.1756
2 Opposite Shores 468 43.62 27.74 -0.577 69.87% 0.054 0.2829
2 Thematic 662 44.24 34.29 1.684 64.35% -0.203 -0.1423
2 Top to Top 53 49.06 26.36 -0.7 71.7% 0.293 0.4247
3 Coastline 2 100.0 45.0 2.661 50.0% 0.193 0.1545
3 Other 29 28.57 28.66 -1.376 72.41% -0.674 -0.254
3 Round (Default) 980 44.91 28.0 -0.322 68.37% 0.25 0.3058
3 Sunrise 9 66.67 23.22 -0.992 55.56% 0.025 -0.1689
3 Thematic 141 46.76 35.9 1.551 56.03% -0.086 -0.4149
4 Leaf 2 50.0 22.5 -2.571 100.0% 0.278 0.3245
4 Other 38 28.95 40.95 1.329 76.32% -0.142 -0.0296
4 Thematic 274 42.49 34.11 -0.815 71.53% 0.004 -1.0203
4 Trapezoid (Default) 860 23.97 32.07 0.327 84.19% 0.617 0.6521
5 Other 5 20.0 38.6 1.383 100.0% 0.397 0.1425
5 Thematic 4 50.0 40.5 3.146 100.0% 0.504 -2.4392

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 508 23.11 -3.462 42.13% -2.46 -0.3862
Aid From Lesser Spirits 616 21.28 -4.247 31.66% -2.911 -0.9919
All Things Weaken 157 26.0 -2.803 43.31% -2.254 -0.0951
Back Against the Wall 579 23.0 -3.779 33.68% -2.803 -0.7091
Disintegrating Ecosystem 914 20.56 -4.85 37.53% -2.613 -0.3889
Downward Spiral 2254 22.26 -3.501 50.98% -2.104 -0.0826
Erosion of Will 494 22.73 -3.426 40.89% -2.49 -0.2818
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 120 31.78 0.236 71.67% -0.725 -0.0326
Memory Fades to Dust 2221 20.24 -4.418 43.22% -2.515 -0.2966
Power Corrodes the Spirit 320 25.28 -3.179 45.63% -2.134 -0.1134
Promising Farmlands 966 22.09 -3.994 41.51% -2.468 -0.254
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 83 30.23 0.178 80.72% -0.281 0.1298
Thriving Communities 331 24.93 -3.239 41.99% -2.271 -0.1779
Tipping Point 496 21.47 -3.996 40.52% -2.505 -0.2797
Unnatural Proliferation 229 28.24 -1.613 44.1% -2.075 0.0142
Untended Land Crumbles 320 22.92 -4.048 40.31% -2.412 -0.3059

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5240 45.49% 26.73 -0.734 68.93% 0.353 -0.7589
B 5160 43.41% 27.58 -0.342 71.45% 0.421 -0.7866
C 5428 43.14% 27.71 -0.248 70.98% 0.443 -0.9964
D 4904 44.04% 27.45 -0.45 70.11% 0.376 -0.8253
E 1245 41.77% 31.89 0.526 67.71% 0.319 -0.9928
F 2189 41.22% 30.06 0.082 70.9% 0.332 -0.9335
G 1978 40.04% 30.31 0.194 71.13% 0.359 -0.8982
H 2012 40.42% 31.28 0.76 73.16% 0.476 -0.7899
East 1377 43.83% 34.86 1.704 63.76% 0.398 -0.5831
Northeast 1461 47.52% 34.56 1.867 63.72% 0.465 -0.4664
Northwest 1151 47.01% 34.11 1.641 63.42% 0.57 -0.4292
Southeast 290 45.86% 31.63 0.002 65.17% 0.272 -0.7537
Southwest 304 50.0% 30.14 -1.292 64.8% 0.234 -0.3857
West 1294 50.74% 32.08 0.357 56.72% 0.101 -0.6241

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 688 0.0% 26.72 -3.122 76.16% -1.83 0.2247
Not Using Events or Tokens 4772 51.21% 25.2 -1.099 69.05% -0.276 -0.0585
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2088 14.9% 47.93 5.943 87.93% 0.873 0.1794
Start of Game Growth 2711 17.53% 46.65 6.002 85.61% 0.866 0.403
Unlimited Undo 2830 37.87% 35.57 1.538 76.15% 0.331 -0.0893
Using Tokens but Not Events 2562 33.83% 30.98 0.316 81.26% 0.118 0.0655

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4410 22.34 11.32%
II 8388 30.81 63.9%
III 7669 34.31 89.13%
IV 3354 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.098 Win Model: -0.463
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 17186 47.28% 27.85 65.83%
2 4304 45.23% 29.87 69.89%
3 1152 45.19% 28.98 66.93%
4 1179 28.5% 32.81 81.09%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 359
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5274
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3845
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2573
Lose: Invader deck ran out 205
Lose: Adversary condition 2229
Win: Sacrifice victory 102
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4996
Lose: Spirit destroyed 343

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)