Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 5 0.0% 14.2 -1.453 40.0% -0.203 -0.3297
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 100.0% 35.0 9.8 100.0% 0.238 -0.3433
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 33.33% 32.0 8.072 66.67% 0.168 0.1017
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 0.0% 0.0 -7.652 0.0% -0.693 -0.9049
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 2 100.0% 9.5 -3.085 0.0% -0.753 -0.215
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 16 18.75% 45.5 4.176 43.75% -0.973 0.7842
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 351 26.57% 22.48 -3.023 61.25% -0.506 -0.0975
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 392 35.55% 22.6 -3.757 52.04% -1.347 -0.8902
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 394 46.94% 30.97 3.12 52.79% -0.12 0.4547
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 420 31.43% 42.43 -0.662 46.9% -0.861 -0.0825
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 106 60.38% 33.85 0.0 43.4%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 49 61.22% 26.27 -0.738 22.45% -0.575 0.9125
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 507 44.49% 41.32 -9.473 38.66% -1.154 0.7971
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1354 36.62% 20.23 -3.305 65.81% -0.693 -0.5252
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1209 36.35% 23.76 -2.075 65.34% -0.769 -0.7284
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1228 45.09% 32.61 3.743 69.3% 0.12 0.2806
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1068 50.52% 38.1 6.072 69.29% 0.012 0.3016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 699 44.19% 40.94 7.063 68.38% -0.294 -0.026
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 458 69.93% 39.66 7.104 50.22% 0.198 0.4935
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1147 55.26% 41.95 2.398 49.69% -0.779 0.4718
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1370 37.86% 18.87 -2.47 61.68% -0.387 0.0267
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1049 39.11% 26.25 -1.049 61.68% -0.561 0.0383
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1058 48.85% 27.38 0.474 53.78% -0.618 -0.0178
The Kingdom of England 3 6 676 46.56% 32.36 1.499 47.19% -0.934 0.2005
The Kingdom of England 4 7 638 42.41% 37.27 4.295 47.02% -0.738 0.2785
The Kingdom of England 5 9 314 51.45% 37.16 6.372 39.17% -0.296 1.2005
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2473 30.91% 48.91 8.877 47.39% -0.698 1.1774
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 673 41.52% 22.03 -3.68 58.1% -1.067 -0.5366
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 657 49.16% 23.36 -4.034 52.97% -1.408 -0.5958
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 754 32.14% 20.48 1.277 18.04% -1.168 0.077
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 504 28.63% 33.19 -6.22 27.78% -2.265 -1.0051
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 240 27.08% 26.03 -3.496 17.08% -1.85 -0.5618
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 186 29.03% 33.42 -2.98 24.73% -0.803 0.3241
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1211 34.44% 42.39 -3.221 30.55% -1.44 0.0521
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 140 20.71% 18.04 -2.145 47.86% -0.252 0.0829
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 177 22.03% 17.07 4.185 38.98% 0.614 0.8767
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 153 26.14% 23.4 0.05 41.18% -0.689 -0.3797
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 216 20.83% 49.19 3.529 57.41% -0.841 -0.5987
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 187 16.04% 49.02 14.387 44.92% 0.52 1.3337
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 110 20.0% 60.03 1.373 66.36% -0.646 -0.1139
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 653 18.38% 55.07 6.841 51.45% -0.851 0.3082
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1094 37.89% 18.97 -2.545 63.71% -0.442 -0.1916
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 914 44.26% 21.66 -1.593 60.28% -0.543 -0.3734
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1107 48.68% 25.24 -1.054 59.71% -0.851 -0.6023
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 758 53.92% 31.84 2.892 59.37% -0.584 -0.123
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 458 60.26% 34.23 -2.157 50.0% -0.809 -0.0476
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 274 62.55% 27.35 -1.918 36.13% -1.702 -0.6333
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 849 55.81% 39.7 1.379 50.88% -0.656 0.3715
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 337 26.57% 19.42 -2.769 60.83% -0.85 -0.5999
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 282 39.01% 20.47 1.599 46.1% -0.173 0.5688
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 360 36.67% 29.24 3.883 53.61% -0.116 0.3997
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 228 47.37% 35.51 0.593 37.72% -0.983 -0.1359
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 101 65.35% 22.74 -4.086 21.78% -0.93 0.0632
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 46 60.87% 25.78 -3.602 19.57% -0.51 1.4651
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 355 58.97% 44.06 9.79 34.93% -0.227 1.5757

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 23410 40.67 26.31 60.15% -0.214 0.1786 -0.934
1 Thematic 4089 45.73 27.92 50.45% -0.495 0.2618 -1.069
2 Archipelago 30 34.48 28.9 76.67% 0.534 1.0994 -0.291
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4179 38.67 26.57 64.32% -0.062 0.1118 0.03
2 Coastline 580 43.56 26.32 62.76% 0.44 0.2772 0.19
2 Fragment 94 45.74 27.56 74.47% -0.675 -0.6403 0.279
2 Heart 60 33.9 27.18 78.33% 0.347 0.1954 0.853
2 Opposite Shores 809 40.23 30.15 66.13% -0.056 0.0892 -0.561
2 Thematic 891 39.52 27.75 55.67% -0.667 0.1544 -0.774
2 Top to Top 110 40.74 33.31 70.0% 0.475 0.3575 -0.022
3 Archipelago 8 50.0 45.25 100.0% 0.264 -0.1736
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% -0.796
3 Other 50 37.78 26.02 66.0% -0.155
3 Round (Default) 1625 34.67 27.21 66.15% 0.931 0.9279 -0.006
3 Sunrise 7 71.43 22.0 42.86% -0.136
3 Thematic 222 41.36 25.06 39.64% -0.236 -0.1535 0.276
4 Archipelago 6 50.0 62.67 100.0% 0.683
4 Coastline 7 0.0 20.14 71.43% 0.555 0.4547 0.456
4 Leaf 7 0.0 13.0 57.14% 0.098 0.6094
4 Other 61 32.79 37.77 65.57% -0.268 -0.9032 0.41
4 Thematic 463 43.98 31.99 70.19% -0.457 -0.3247 -0.859
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1351 20.9 37.49 79.57% 0.761 0.7973 1.325
5 Archipelago 5 80.0 48.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.277
5 Other 55 21.28 23.76 65.45% 0.457 0.1654 -0.577
5 Thematic 12 50.0 27.25 58.33% -0.179
6 Archipelago 17 50.0 33.12 94.12% -0.139
6 Coastline 51 0.0 28.0 98.04% -0.004
6 Other 135 33.05 25.76 34.07% -1.357 -1.4424 -1.004
6 Star 28 35.71 24.18 32.14% -0.527 0.2021 -0.321
6 Thematic 22 40.91 26.45 54.55% 0.396 0.7196 0.743
6 Two Centers (Default) 104 7.58 22.88 77.88% -0.609 -0.1497 -0.794
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.751

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 614 22.78 43.49% -0.067 0.0439 -0.092
Aid From Lesser Spirits 722 22.1 33.24% -0.686 -0.7966 -0.407
All Things Weaken 332 24.74 40.36% -0.116 0.0829 -0.27
Attenuated Essence 88 20.91 48.86% 0.251 0.3211 -0.928
Back Against the Wall 681 23.02 33.92% 0.49 0.4941 -0.255
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 107 27.15 52.34% 0.265 0.4605 -0.195
Burn Brightest Before the End 68 27.81 45.59% 0.123 0.2312 -0.364
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1094 20.55 37.84% -0.6 -0.2993 -0.59
Downward Spiral 2948 20.97 47.93% -0.012 0.1125 -0.476
Erosion of Will 603 22.24 40.46% 0.329 0.5081 -0.293
Intensifying Exploitation 112 19.98 41.96% 0.313 0.518 -1.256
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 289 30.51 72.66% 0.785 0.341 -0.007
Memory Fades to Dust 2944 19.32 40.76% 0.058 0.309 -0.564
Power Corrodes the Spirit 718 24.69 43.87% -0.163 -0.0678 -0.464
Promising Farmlands 1115 23.11 42.24% -0.898 -0.5254 -0.176
Shattered Fragments of Power 75 23.0 29.33% -0.469 -0.3603 -1.085
Slow Dissolution of Will 47 26.15 34.04% 0.479 0.9604 -0.047
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 168 31.91 83.33% 0.934 0.3675 0.806
The Border of Life and Death 32 26.91 59.38% 0.713 0.2862 -0.016
Thriving Communities 719 25.13 44.09% 0.137 0.3894 -0.33
Thriving Crops 59 29.98 67.8% 0.328 0.1275 0.784
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.237
Unnatural Proliferation 486 27.96 46.71% 1.229 1.3665 -0.342
Untended Land Crumbles 700 23.83 43.71% -0.133 0.126 -0.371

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7941 39.01% 26.12 61.77% -0.517 0.3993 -0.565
B 7934 37.24% 27.7 64.38% -0.136 0.7032 -0.397
C 8154 37.69% 27.81 64.01% -0.256 0.4294 -0.348
D 7524 36.75% 27.45 62.81% -0.377 0.4614 -0.39
E 3609 34.97% 29.75 64.59% 0.056 0.7073 -0.466
F 4774 37.24% 28.19 64.87% -0.204 0.5535 -0.403
G 4210 35.01% 28.83 65.39% -0.978 -0.216 -0.559
H 4353 35.32% 29.43 66.85% -0.296 0.4331 -0.561
East 3504 41.98% 29.08 56.11% -0.407 0.4112 -0.321
Northeast 2013 43.0% 29.55 57.82% -0.722 -0.0966 -0.168
Northwest 1525 41.61% 29.3 57.25% 0.109 0.9299 -0.304
Southeast 685 40.44% 25.63 52.41% -0.137 0.5165 -0.68
Southwest 705 44.46% 24.99 54.33% -0.302 1.0507 -0.287
West 3117 44.46% 27.44 52.52% -0.529 0.228 -1.217

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1053 0.0% 24.49 71.6% -0.486 0.2312 -0.421
Not Using Events or Tokens 7872 44.22% 22.34 59.22% -0.831 -0.3396 -0.06
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4299 11.69% 50.88 77.32% 2.028 1.358 0.712
Start of Game Growth 5409 14.59% 48.04 75.86% 0.66 0.1669 1.325
Unlimited Undo 5589 27.68% 38.43 67.17% -1.136 -1.1668 -0.031
Using Tokens but Not Events 4453 33.39% 29.59 74.11% 0.616 0.4641 0.376

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10329 14.28 7.18%
II 12060 30.3 63.8%
III 11219 34.84 89.42%
IV 4931 38.61 99.98%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.283 Win Model: 0.188
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 27870 41.35% 26.46 58.37%
2 6506 39.81% 27.65 64.96%
3 1856 35.06% 27.31 64.39%
4 1900 26.93% 36.04 77.0%
5 53 27.91% 24.83 62.26%
6 354 25.3% 25.49 59.89%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 741
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9963
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7663
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4872
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4510
Lose: Invader deck ran out 292
Lose: Adversary condition 3464
Win: Sacrifice victory 159
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6490
Lose: Spirit destroyed 385

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-20 03:42:24 (Pacific Time)