Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 94 32.26% 27.55 0.412 84.04% -0.031 0.2491
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 92 48.91% 29.52 1.17 70.65% -0.593 -0.2196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 132 44.7% 35.79 4.382 67.42% -0.979 -0.1313
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 91 45.05% 38.57 4.947 64.84% -1.452 -0.2147
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 41 73.17% 37.2 4.873 43.9% -1.899 -0.3769
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 23 86.96% 33.48 4.039 30.43% -1.863 0.1646
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 152 49.34% 45.58 7.502 50.66% -2.625 -0.533
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 777 42.27% 22.79 -1.39 77.09% -0.243 -0.1962
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 619 43.16% 27.08 0.733 78.51% -0.099 -0.1275
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 702 52.01% 34.99 4.582 75.21% -0.209 -0.2111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 554 57.88% 38.52 6.325 66.79% -0.661 -0.377
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 332 62.85% 40.48 7.754 66.57% -0.556 -0.1777
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 322 78.68% 39.87 7.614 48.76% -1.354 -0.5206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 734 57.06% 48.97 10.158 59.67% -1.524 -0.2746
The Kingdom of England 0 1 778 41.4% 22.5 -1.651 74.55% -0.489 -0.156
The Kingdom of England 1 3 540 47.32% 30.37 2.293 71.3% -0.464 0.0187
The Kingdom of England 2 4 618 51.17% 29.81 1.97 58.74% -1.249 -0.2916
The Kingdom of England 3 6 427 55.56% 35.35 4.349 53.4% -1.574 0.0032
The Kingdom of England 4 7 330 55.11% 36.43 5.035 48.48% -1.954 -0.432
The Kingdom of England 5 9 132 67.72% 35.98 4.953 31.82% -2.504 -0.4398
The Kingdom of England 6 11 763 52.53% 47.56 9.214 49.28% -2.512 -0.2571
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 403 44.14% 25.54 -0.305 68.98% -0.791 -0.2665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 369 55.59% 26.88 0.316 60.16% -0.997 -0.1056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 482 33.75% 21.49 -2.203 18.67% -4.141 -2.0125
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 308 37.25% 26.72 0.023 19.48% -4.261 -2.0748
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 161 36.65% 28.43 1.094 18.01% -4.268 -2.1224
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 131 33.59% 35.72 3.62 25.95% -3.962 -2.1432
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 670 39.91% 38.38 4.888 27.01% -4.035 -1.9001
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 633 43.93% 21.76 -1.859 76.46% -0.175 -0.0897
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 506 48.8% 25.25 0.01 72.13% -0.301 -0.2918
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 557 58.98% 27.02 0.769 66.61% -0.483 -0.2658
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 456 57.87% 35.64 4.946 66.89% -0.626 -0.3412
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 281 70.29% 33.52 3.885 51.25% -1.131 -0.354
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 174 72.46% 34.41 4.323 47.13% -1.393 -0.2281
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 500 67.08% 38.92 5.751 51.2% -1.633 -0.5001
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 94 31.91% 23.05 -2.225 80.85% -0.364 -0.4815
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 40 35.0% 30.5 1.098 75.0% -0.647 0.0415
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 77 46.75% 31.91 1.455 62.34% -1.397 -0.9608
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 62 64.52% 27.52 0.033 30.65% -2.566 -1.2913
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 32 65.63% 31.5 2.861 34.38% -2.112 -0.9548
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 60.0% 33.6 2.131 20.0% -2.175 -0.1385
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 94 75.82% 45.32 8.4 37.23% -2.293 -0.3435

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 12085 46.82 26.57 -1.07 67.37% -0.276 0.0787
1 Thematic 2809 51.06 32.54 1.512 57.49% -0.731 -0.2341
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2340 45.34 30.02 0.759 72.52% 0.195 0.384
2 Coastline 286 44.29 25.4 -1.559 68.53% -0.135 -0.0001
2 Fragment 67 58.46 25.24 -1.039 56.72% 0.002 0.4276
2 Heart 40 32.5 27.38 -0.459 70.0% -0.149 0.1413
2 Opposite Shores 416 43.8 28.15 -0.374 69.95% 0.168 0.3945
2 Thematic 593 43.15 34.08 1.548 63.24% -0.287 -0.2428
2 Top to Top 45 46.67 27.16 -0.581 68.89% 0.102 0.2187
3 Coastline 2 100.0 45.0 2.611 50.0% 0.171 0.133
3 Other 21 35.0 28.76 -1.023 71.43% -0.423 -0.0211
3 Round (Default) 870 45.1 27.82 -0.346 67.24% 0.2 0.2312
3 Sunrise 9 66.67 23.22 -1.008 55.56% 0.019 -0.234
3 Thematic 128 46.03 36.39 1.848 53.91% -0.154 -0.493
4 Leaf 2 50.0 22.5 -2.591 100.0% 0.28 0.3596
4 Other 29 31.03 38.0 0.374 72.41% -0.311 -0.2302
4 Thematic 259 41.47 34.08 -0.733 71.43% -0.079 -1.157
4 Trapezoid (Default) 807 23.13 32.13 0.298 84.14% 0.561 0.5281
5 Other 5 20.0 38.6 1.33 100.0% 0.395 0.1775
5 Thematic 4 50.0 40.5 3.315 100.0% 0.496 -2.2715

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 452 22.53 -3.68 41.15% -2.516 -0.4482
Aid From Lesser Spirits 556 21.03 -4.274 31.12% -2.937 -1.0207
All Things Weaken 119 26.21 -2.665 43.7% -2.176 -0.0161
Back Against the Wall 519 22.83 -3.77 33.72% -2.787 -0.6946
Disintegrating Ecosystem 833 20.3 -4.888 37.09% -2.63 -0.4083
Downward Spiral 2005 22.24 -3.517 50.67% -2.097 -0.0829
Erosion of Will 448 22.78 -3.376 41.52% -2.466 -0.2545
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 97 31.84 0.286 72.16% -0.685 0.0265
Memory Fades to Dust 1954 20.31 -4.384 42.84% -2.518 -0.3026
Power Corrodes the Spirit 238 25.45 -3.239 45.38% -2.133 -0.1131
Promising Farmlands 854 21.77 -4.071 41.45% -2.48 -0.2658
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 61 30.48 0.425 81.97% -0.158 0.2595
Thriving Communities 233 24.36 -3.52 40.77% -2.339 -0.232
Tipping Point 496 21.47 -3.97 40.52% -2.505 -0.2889
Unnatural Proliferation 176 28.4 -1.423 47.73% -1.955 0.1251
Untended Land Crumbles 244 22.16 -4.364 39.34% -2.483 -0.3875

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 4688 45.23% 26.55 -0.776 68.75% 0.319 -0.7547
B 4630 43.08% 27.55 -0.333 71.38% 0.38 -0.7848
C 4842 43.04% 27.66 -0.22 71.42% 0.439 -0.9573
D 4389 44.01% 27.48 -0.416 69.97% 0.361 -0.7971
E 929 42.66% 31.84 0.397 66.63% 0.151 -1.1055
F 1845 40.98% 30.08 0.087 70.3% 0.284 -0.9421
G 1663 39.42% 30.49 0.323 71.92% 0.376 -0.8368
H 1653 40.49% 31.36 0.761 72.84% 0.362 -0.8591
East 1286 43.75% 34.73 1.672 62.91% 0.373 -0.5631
Northeast 1343 47.19% 34.27 1.716 63.29% 0.425 -0.4446
Northwest 1038 46.15% 34.34 1.734 63.87% 0.587 -0.3586
Southeast 240 46.67% 31.34 -0.262 64.17% 0.171 -0.812
Southwest 255 48.63% 30.09 -1.303 65.1% 0.171 -0.4545
West 1190 49.32% 32.2 0.416 56.47% 0.077 -0.5887

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 604 0.0% 26.5 -3.261 74.5% -1.898 0.1405
Not Using Events or Tokens 4125 51.43% 25.34 -1.109 68.17% -0.312 -0.092
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1850 14.64% 47.56 5.808 87.62% 0.771 0.0655
Start of Game Growth 2374 17.37% 46.67 6.065 85.89% 0.904 0.4446
Unlimited Undo 2486 38.71% 35.8 1.706 75.82% 0.395 -0.0076
Using Tokens but Not Events 2234 34.66% 30.77 0.339 81.15% 0.161 0.1153

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3876 22.34 11.64%
II 7358 30.71 63.86%
III 6681 34.23 88.79%
IV 2902 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.103 Win Model: -0.399
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 14924 47.62% 27.73 65.55%
2 3765 44.94% 29.85 70.04%
3 1025 45.25% 28.89 65.56%
4 1103 27.76% 32.75 80.96%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 311
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4375
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3189
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2124
Lose: Invader deck ran out 180
Lose: Adversary condition 1899
Win: Sacrifice victory 90
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4440
Lose: Spirit destroyed 314

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)