Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 74 17.57% 10.81 -2.894 29.73% -0.471 -0.2907
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 62 9.68% 11.53 -4.459 29.03% -0.851 -0.7214
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 30 16.67% 22.57 -2.624 46.67% 0.067 0.5111
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 20 40.0% 17.4 1.32 30.0% -0.175 0.1093
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 16 62.5% 18.0 -6.149 12.5% -0.161 0.5186
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 11 18.18% 4.27 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 55 25.45% 42.47 -8.649 43.64% -0.292 1.6594
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 434 25.87% 21.75 -1.03 58.76% -0.117 0.3479
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 463 33.98% 21.0 -1.215 48.38% -0.539 -0.6128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 445 44.24% 29.79 3.875 51.46% 0.36 0.9488
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 453 30.68% 40.63 -9.866 45.47% -0.771 0.0385
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 126 59.52% 31.0 0.0 38.89%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 66 54.55% 25.05 5.659 22.73% -0.294 0.9022
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 531 43.79% 40.98 2.022 38.61% -0.876 0.8389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1591 34.45% 19.28 0.334 62.54% 0.27 0.6215
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1413 34.95% 22.43 -0.597 61.64% -0.427 -0.4066
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1404 42.97% 31.14 -1.287 65.95% -0.197 -0.0634
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1185 49.27% 37.15 3.809 67.34% -0.298 0.0636
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 774 43.91% 39.66 6.257 66.28% 0.375 0.5919
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 492 67.08% 38.8 4.664 49.39% -0.153 0.1149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1253 53.78% 40.4 0.515 47.89% -0.785 0.5612
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1613 35.53% 17.92 0.966 58.52% 0.392 0.5945
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1233 37.91% 24.63 -0.067 57.75% -0.661 -0.3391
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1187 46.7% 26.01 2.925 51.22% 0.252 0.8179
The Kingdom of England 3 6 762 45.2% 31.45 0.197 46.33% -0.947 0.328
The Kingdom of England 4 7 738 41.67% 35.79 -1.507 45.26% -0.8 0.1545
The Kingdom of England 5 9 332 49.54% 35.79 -10.06 37.65% -0.476 0.7076
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3227 24.94% 51.7 8.019 50.33% -0.644 1.243
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 786 38.34% 20.84 -1.463 55.09% -0.303 0.1635
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 762 46.18% 21.76 -2.981 48.95% -1.037 -0.1575
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 946 34.18% 19.39 -2.957 15.96% -1.628 -0.633
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 538 29.24% 32.32 -9.604 27.14% -0.465 0.8552
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 275 26.18% 26.2 6.059 17.82% -0.503 0.7481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 211 28.44% 32.35 3.233 24.17% -2.109 -1.3332
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1264 33.86% 41.79 -6.139 30.06% -1.055 0.2337
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 238 20.17% 16.84 -1.289 47.48% -0.247 -0.2203
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 260 20.38% 16.82 -3.031 38.85% -0.591 -0.0694
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 204 28.43% 20.98 -2.349 37.25% -0.217 0.4877
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 252 21.83% 46.75 0.54 55.95% -0.375 -0.1906
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 222 18.02% 45.79 3.113 44.59% -0.129 0.5446
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 137 23.36% 56.22 18.24 64.23% 0.072 0.7123
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1227 13.28% 59.34 9.815 54.12% 0.299 1.498
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1284 36.98% 18.11 1.621 60.36% 0.721 0.8989
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1061 41.76% 20.5 -0.586 57.02% 0.212 0.3417
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1285 46.05% 23.26 2.092 54.94% 0.003 0.2089
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 884 53.47% 30.44 7.239 57.13% 0.682 0.9434
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 507 58.57% 32.55 -1.349 47.93% -0.763 -0.1863
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 339 59.04% 24.55 2.209 32.15% -0.215 0.5151
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 922 54.67% 38.53 7.98 49.57% -0.09 0.7062
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 447 22.92% 18.23 0.186 57.49% 0.457 0.7011
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 360 34.44% 18.58 2.622 41.94% 0.123 0.6932
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 396 37.12% 28.21 -0.69 52.02% -0.42 -0.0315
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 252 46.03% 33.52 3.777 36.11% -0.216 0.5806
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 117 57.26% 19.82 0.28 18.8% -0.566 0.1783
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 59 52.54% 22.83 -8.488 18.64% -0.258 1.6003
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 390 55.18% 40.98 -0.504 32.31% -1.212 0.4524

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 27509 38.53 25.83 57.99% 0.115 0.3191 0.079
1 Thematic 4625 43.52 26.4 48.0% -0.374 0.2349 -0.093
2 Archipelago 36 40.0 28.83 75.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4904 36.82 25.49 61.99% 0.02 0.1005 -0.017
2 Coastline 653 42.5 25.45 62.94% 0.375 0.2802 -0.154
2 Fragment 121 39.67 27.26 73.55% -0.155
2 Heart 78 32.89 25.33 75.64% -0.187
2 Opposite Shores 934 38.8 30.56 66.81% 1.348 1.4796 1.166
2 Thematic 1032 37.89 25.75 51.55% 0.136 0.4946 -0.51
2 Top to Top 143 43.26 31.02 71.33% 0.203 0.1143
3 Archipelago 9 44.44 46.33 100.0%
3 Coastline 10 25.0 36.0 70.0%
3 Other 58 43.4 25.16 65.52%
3 Round (Default) 1885 34.72 26.05 64.03% -0.168 -0.1621 -0.938
3 Sunrise 10 50.0 27.1 50.0%
3 Thematic 257 38.04 22.9 36.19% -0.273 -0.704 -0.251
4 Archipelago 8 37.5 53.75 100.0%
4 Coastline 8 16.67 24.63 75.0%
4 Leaf 9 11.11 11.56 44.44% -0.382 -1.4046
4 Other 65 31.25 36.22 64.62% 0.308 -0.5351
4 Thematic 531 40.57 29.79 64.22% -0.196 -0.3981 -0.371
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1482 21.31 36.35 77.46% -1.178 -0.9887 0.998
5 Archipelago 5 80.0 48.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0%
5 Other 67 16.95 21.78 61.19% 0.312 0.1514 -0.025
5 Thematic 15 46.67 24.6 53.33%
6 Archipelago 19 25.0 33.21 94.74%
6 Coastline 51 0.0 28.0 98.04%
6 Other 140 33.33 25.32 33.57% 0.036
6 Star 29 34.48 23.34 31.03%
6 Thematic 33 36.36 22.27 45.45% 0.054 0.3023 -0.0
6 Two Centers (Default) 114 10.53 22.25 73.68% 0.109 1.3101 -0.299
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
7 Other 2 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 671 22.6 43.22% 0.709 0.8575 -0.716
Aid From Lesser Spirits 779 22.34 34.79% -0.245 -0.3577 0.323
All Things Weaken 358 24.56 40.78% 0.789 1.1643 0.084
Attenuated Essence 131 20.4 51.15% 0.349 0.4747 -0.572
Back Against the Wall 730 23.01 34.25% 0.448 0.4885 0.244
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 152 24.6 50.0% 0.093 0.2993 -0.255
Burn Brightest Before the End 92 25.63 43.48% -0.84 -0.7956 0.077
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1179 20.38 37.74% -0.625 -0.1275 0.255
Downward Spiral 3279 20.53 47.27% 0.27 0.5201 0.218
Erosion of Will 670 22.06 41.04% 0.385 0.6428 0.783
Intensifying Exploitation 177 18.73 40.11% 0.234 0.4533 -0.793
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 321 30.12 73.21% 0.698 0.3123
Memory Fades to Dust 3257 18.95 40.59% -0.22 -0.0145 0.67
Power Corrodes the Spirit 794 24.39 43.83% 0.283 0.4813 0.205
Promising Farmlands 1204 22.66 42.03% -0.17 0.1862 -0.31
Shattered Fragments of Power 109 23.18 32.11% 0.165 0.3825 -0.521
Slow Dissolution of Will 71 24.34 36.62% -0.502 -0.0725 -0.194
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 31.36 82.23% -0.378 -1.0021 -0.491
The Border of Life and Death 47 24.85 59.57% 0.452 0.1324 -0.09
Thriving Communities 806 24.2 42.56% -1.312 -0.993 -0.366
Thriving Crops 89 27.18 62.92% 0.003 -0.1157 -0.389
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73%
Unnatural Proliferation 525 27.56 47.81% -0.183 -0.0934 0.187
Untended Land Crumbles 779 23.44 43.52% 0.056 0.2814 -0.485

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9173 37.61% 25.43 59.87% 0.114 0.9136 0.121
B 9186 35.96% 26.59 61.64% 0.129 0.8592 -0.007
C 9349 36.87% 26.93 61.93% 0.058 0.6623 -0.004
D 8747 35.36% 26.58 60.74% 0.036 0.7929 0.376
E 4321 33.07% 29.18 62.6% 0.324 0.9087 -0.084
F 5510 35.84% 27.7 63.28% 0.389 1.0918 -0.017
G 4884 33.52% 28.12 63.72% -0.308 0.4492 0.151
H 4999 34.32% 28.72 65.03% -0.037 0.5944 0.323
East 4025 40.01% 27.22 52.45% -0.672 0.1113 -0.865
Northeast 2322 40.88% 27.86 54.31% 0.332 1.0938 -0.039
Northwest 1753 38.44% 27.36 53.34% -0.572 0.2701 -0.861
Southeast 808 38.24% 23.57 48.27% -1.42 -0.7803 -0.342
Southwest 842 40.31% 22.58 49.05% -0.602 0.4435 -0.849
West 3569 41.71% 25.68 49.2% -0.128 0.6473 -0.395

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1130 0.0% 23.47 68.76% -1.799 -0.9254 -0.222
Not Using Events or Tokens 9165 42.64% 20.88 55.83% -0.589 -0.2117 -0.636
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5200 10.54% 52.15 75.13% 1.216 0.9249 0.689
Start of Game Growth 6424 13.08% 48.95 74.11% 0.658 0.1015 0.391
Unlimited Undo 6704 24.63% 39.82 65.32% -0.833 -0.7693 0.148
Using Tokens but Not Events 4906 32.78% 28.74 72.87% 0.7 0.5729 0.487

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13258 12.44 5.98%
II 13474 29.94 63.92%
III 12584 34.9 89.72%
IV 5575 38.84 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.039 Win Model: 0.16
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 32646 39.16% 25.77 56.16%
2 7544 38.2% 26.8 63.36%
3 2153 35.15% 26.14 62.24%
4 2099 26.3% 34.66 74.13%
5 65 23.64% 22.0 56.92%
6 384 25.45% 24.66 57.55%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 792
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11213
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8579
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5512
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6985
Lose: Invader deck ran out 314
Lose: Adversary condition 3832
Win: Sacrifice victory 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7071
Lose: Spirit destroyed 420

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)