Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 82 18.29% 10.89 -3.024 30.49% -0.193 0.3775
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 75 13.33% 12.68 -0.716 30.67% -0.127 0.0006
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 36 13.89% 21.92 0.964 44.44% -0.35 0.2554
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 22 36.36% 15.82 -8.121 27.27% -0.269 -0.0579
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 18 61.11% 20.39 10.817 16.67% 0.129 0.4376
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 14 21.43% 9.86 11.003 7.14% 0.212 1.4351
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 59 23.73% 41.53 -11.17 42.37% -0.696 1.3868
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 445 25.9% 21.78 0.1 58.88% 0.115 0.5181
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 473 34.11% 20.88 2.009 47.99% 0.316 0.699
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 453 43.68% 29.65 -1.216 51.21% -0.73 -0.1937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 463 31.1% 40.49 0.0 44.92%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 132 58.33% 30.67 -0.431 38.64% -0.44 0.6358
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 68 52.94% 24.31 -5.328 22.06% -0.135 1.3916
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 538 43.58% 40.49 -10.645 38.1% -1.419 -0.1048
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1620 34.35% 19.19 -1.384 62.22% 0.081 0.2428
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1442 34.65% 22.18 -2.123 60.89% -0.498 -0.363
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1428 42.88% 30.9 -1.469 65.48% -0.285 -0.3354
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1195 49.19% 37.07 6.445 67.2% 0.191 0.4889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 799 43.02% 39.77 10.062 66.83% 1.184 1.3668
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 497 66.8% 38.6 2.028 49.09% -0.281 0.1162
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1268 53.93% 40.29 3.685 47.71% -0.902 0.3373
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1650 35.46% 17.71 -2.637 57.82% -0.171 0.1961
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1258 37.71% 24.35 -2.337 57.15% -0.409 -0.0333
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1209 46.76% 25.77 -2.722 50.7% -0.727 -0.1488
The Kingdom of England 3 6 776 44.75% 31.4 3.301 46.13% -0.476 0.6602
The Kingdom of England 4 7 758 41.49% 35.58 1.81 44.72% -1.018 0.0022
The Kingdom of England 5 9 339 48.81% 35.53 3.445 37.46% -0.191 1.2725
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3327 24.42% 51.87 6.647 50.47% -0.817 0.9093
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 807 37.72% 20.72 0.319 54.89% 0.204 0.6605
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 779 45.69% 21.45 -3.181 48.14% -1.006 -0.3024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 952 34.17% 19.43 1.712 16.07% -0.466 0.4375
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 550 29.33% 32.28 6.892 27.09% -0.156 1.1818
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 288 26.39% 26.39 3.537 18.06% -0.562 0.7051
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 213 28.17% 32.05 -6.338 23.94% -0.466 0.4568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1276 33.78% 41.7 3.883 30.09% -0.807 0.4948
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 247 19.43% 17.04 2.817 48.99% 0.942 1.1835
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 275 20.73% 16.55 -3.159 38.18% -0.532 -0.2114
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 213 28.64% 20.96 -0.279 37.56% -0.223 -0.0134
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 257 21.79% 46.5 12.296 56.03% 0.547 0.6162
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 228 18.86% 45.27 6.293 44.74% 0.218 0.7716
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 140 24.29% 55.74 9.479 63.57% -0.006 0.4757
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1319 12.81% 59.75 10.07 54.81% 0.356 1.4375
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1315 36.56% 17.9 -1.816 59.54% -0.034 0.2344
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1088 41.74% 20.3 -2.643 56.43% -0.361 -0.279
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1315 45.61% 22.96 -3.307 54.22% -0.53 -0.3663
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 899 53.13% 30.2 1.725 56.73% -0.227 -0.0105
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 523 58.49% 32.54 10.004 47.42% 0.444 0.9922
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 351 59.59% 24.74 8.312 32.76% 0.576 1.0576
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 931 54.45% 38.36 3.331 49.41% -0.309 0.3763
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 467 23.01% 17.97 -2.75 56.53% -0.043 0.3915
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 376 33.78% 17.95 -7.036 40.43% -1.276 -0.4123
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 404 37.13% 27.85 -0.829 51.24% -0.31 0.1704
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 256 46.09% 33.04 -6.512 35.55% -0.617 0.3691
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 120 56.67% 19.84 3.184 19.17% -0.096 0.7363
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 63 55.56% 22.86 3.073 17.46% -0.307 1.0102
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 395 54.73% 40.75 -8.468 32.15% -0.503 1.3044

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 28129 38.29 25.79 57.73% 0.486 0.7106 0.038
1 Thematic 4728 43.27 26.17 47.46% 0.239 0.7889 0.46
2 Archipelago 36 40.0 28.83 75.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4986 36.82 25.35 61.59% 0.092 0.2028 0.273
2 Coastline 664 42.37 25.25 62.5% -1.025 -1.1145 -0.272
2 Fragment 123 39.84 26.81 72.36% -0.159 -0.498 -0.249
2 Heart 78 32.89 25.33 75.64% -0.165
2 Opposite Shores 954 39.15 30.59 66.88% 1.454 1.4901 1.128
2 Thematic 1061 37.51 25.34 50.8% 0.042 0.5702 -0.614
2 Top to Top 143 43.26 31.02 71.33%
3 Archipelago 9 44.44 46.33 100.0%
3 Coastline 10 25.0 36.0 70.0%
3 Other 60 43.64 24.32 63.33% -0.828 -1.5701
3 Round (Default) 1923 34.48 25.87 63.65% -0.661 -0.7573 -0.798
3 Sunrise 10 50.0 27.1 50.0%
3 Thematic 260 37.6 22.63 35.77% -0.122 0.12 -0.281
4 Archipelago 8 37.5 53.75 100.0%
4 Coastline 8 16.67 24.63 75.0%
4 Leaf 9 11.11 11.56 44.44%
4 Other 66 32.31 35.97 65.15% 0.388 -0.1591
4 Thematic 549 39.96 29.5 63.75% 0.163 0.6367 -0.434
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1493 21.43 36.18 77.29% 0.501 0.3122 0.431
5 Archipelago 5 80.0 48.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0%
5 Other 67 16.95 21.78 61.19% -0.033
5 Thematic 16 43.75 23.06 50.0% -0.215 -0.7053
6 Archipelago 19 25.0 33.21 94.74%
6 Coastline 51 0.0 28.0 98.04%
6 Other 140 33.33 25.32 33.57% 0.171
6 Star 29 34.48 23.34 31.03%
6 Thematic 35 34.29 21.71 42.86% -0.295 0.2861 -0.0
6 Two Centers (Default) 114 10.53 22.25 73.68% -0.195
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
7 Other 2 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 684 22.69 43.71% -0.314 -0.0036 -0.62
Aid From Lesser Spirits 791 22.35 34.89% 0.201 0.2139 0.502
All Things Weaken 361 24.63 41.0% -0.14 0.3342 0.079
Attenuated Essence 141 20.95 51.77% 0.063 0.2094 -0.057
Back Against the Wall 736 22.94 34.24% -0.273 -0.1435 0.13
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 161 24.56 49.69% 0.283 0.6029 -0.084
Burn Brightest Before the End 95 25.31 43.16% 0.042
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1198 20.31 37.65% -0.489 -0.109 -0.434
Downward Spiral 3333 20.48 47.19% 0.315 0.5079 -0.088
Erosion of Will 678 22.19 41.15% 0.351 0.689 1.183
Intensifying Exploitation 181 18.72 40.88% 0.626 0.979 -0.886
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 322 30.22 73.29%
Memory Fades to Dust 3316 18.89 40.38% 0.344 0.6733 0.246
Power Corrodes the Spirit 806 24.29 43.67% -0.794 -0.5272 -0.561
Promising Farmlands 1215 22.63 41.89% -0.104 0.3434 -0.626
Shattered Fragments of Power 112 23.39 33.04% 0.219 0.2186 -0.616
Slow Dissolution of Will 78 24.21 39.74% 0.99 1.4016 -0.132
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 200 31.3 82.0% 0.329 -0.2298 -0.667
The Border of Life and Death 47 24.85 59.57% -0.099
Thriving Communities 815 24.12 42.58% -0.58 -0.302 -0.356
Thriving Crops 92 27.15 63.04% 0.358 0.2628 -0.459
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73%
Unnatural Proliferation 533 27.62 48.22% 0.573 0.7776 0.215
Untended Land Crumbles 795 23.39 43.52% -0.199 0.1004 -0.126

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9332 37.57% 25.35 59.65% 0.257 1.2489 -0.007
B 9321 35.92% 26.45 61.32% -0.543 0.3224 -0.038
C 9517 36.7% 26.79 61.65% 0.109 0.8606 -0.166
D 8933 35.31% 26.47 60.32% -0.206 0.7385 0.193
E 4402 33.05% 29.05 62.34% 0.053 0.8074 -0.006
F 5616 35.71% 27.54 62.78% -0.493 0.3815 -0.058
G 4970 33.44% 28.1 63.58% 0.338 1.2007 0.206
H 5097 34.07% 28.78 64.92% 0.781 1.5883 0.365
East 4133 39.73% 26.99 51.9% -0.017 0.7283 -0.793
Northeast 2384 40.52% 27.58 53.73% -0.203 0.6901 -0.254
Northwest 1794 37.89% 27.05 52.79% -0.418 0.3248 -0.212
Southeast 824 37.86% 23.42 47.94% 0.064 1.0724 -0.432
Southwest 872 40.07% 22.17 48.05% -0.867 0.2896 -1.181
West 3658 41.24% 25.34 48.55% -0.873 0.1098 -0.481

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1141 0.0% 23.3 68.36% 0.06 0.78 -0.226
Not Using Events or Tokens 9350 42.58% 20.7 55.33% -0.755 -0.2804 -0.651
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5321 10.38% 52.25 74.87% 1.59 0.7852 0.631
Start of Game Growth 6558 12.98% 49.02 73.83% -0.048 -0.6144 0.462
Unlimited Undo 6861 24.3% 39.92 65.02% -0.532 -0.5043 0.049
Using Tokens but Not Events 4966 32.84% 28.69 72.69% 0.614 0.5866 0.468

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13713 12.25 5.83%
II 13655 29.91 63.89%
III 12789 34.94 89.69%
IV 5678 38.9 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.45 Win Model: 0.547
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 33396 38.91% 25.69 55.84%
2 7662 38.22% 26.69 63.08%
3 2196 34.9% 25.93 61.79%
4 2129 26.36% 34.43 73.84%
5 66 23.21% 21.67 56.06%
6 386 25.27% 24.6 57.25%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 798
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11393
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8688
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5615
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7374
Lose: Invader deck ran out 316
Lose: Adversary condition 3884
Win: Sacrifice victory 175
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7166
Lose: Spirit destroyed 426

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)