Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 192 33.51% 27.73 2.013 78.65% 0.221 0.7295
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 207 43.0% 30.22 1.103 70.05% -0.149 0.2551
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 250 53.6% 34.3 6.215 62.0% -0.393 0.7849
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 161 54.66% 36.16 8.639 54.66% -0.19 1.2352
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 75 70.67% 41.0 15.264 54.67% 0.327 1.9071
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 27 88.89% 34.07 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 342 58.53% 42.23 9.342 41.52% -0.682 1.5893
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 938 40.53% 23.42 -0.456 78.46% 0.182 0.135
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 802 42.6% 27.42 2.789 77.43% 0.866 0.6334
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 881 49.31% 35.32 4.727 76.5% -0.305 -0.1154
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 837 53.42% 40.0 7.313 73.12% 0.359 0.7257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 461 50.89% 43.18 9.048 71.8% 0.075 0.4334
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 353 74.13% 41.95 10.164 53.82% -0.178 0.9883
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 706 61.89% 46.66 10.482 55.81% -0.402 1.0448
The Kingdom of England 0 1 904 41.66% 22.9 -2.326 75.77% -0.73 -0.1734
The Kingdom of England 1 3 710 42.9% 30.43 0.697 71.97% -0.407 0.2715
The Kingdom of England 2 4 735 52.85% 30.14 1.046 60.41% -0.639 0.5148
The Kingdom of England 3 6 498 51.77% 34.3 -2.931 50.2% -1.791 -0.1138
The Kingdom of England 4 7 377 54.18% 38.94 5.46 53.58% -1.647 -0.1799
The Kingdom of England 5 9 201 57.58% 40.73 8.451 44.78% -0.446 1.597
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1143 49.78% 47.0 7.556 44.79% -1.794 0.769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 444 44.92% 25.93 1.101 69.59% 0.95 1.6236
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 444 54.98% 27.71 0.126 63.29% -0.76 0.3119
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 551 34.36% 22.01 2.007 19.78% -1.29 0.8248
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 336 37.31% 28.09 3.735 22.02% -0.941 1.1894
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 152 32.24% 30.57 -4.53 22.37% -0.941 1.404
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 126 30.16% 37.15 6.297 29.37% -1.04 1.0252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 940 39.29% 39.72 7.138 25.96% -2.198 -0.0234
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 15 20.0% 40.67 3.98 80.0% 0.096 0.003
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 18 50.0% 30.94 0.557 66.67% -0.686 0.2043
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 24 29.17% 35.29 3.708 70.83% -0.036 1.1662
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 36.36% 45.55 8.651 81.82% 0.272 1.1311
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 50.0% 39.0 5.602 50.0% -0.268 0.9498
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 18 5.56% 67.22 10.795 77.78% -0.903 0.3357
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 65 32.31% 59.74 14.282 63.08% -0.551 1.0066
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 733 43.88% 22.43 -0.445 76.67% 0.407 0.5779
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 575 50.0% 26.14 0.884 73.39% -0.266 -0.0465
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 668 54.23% 28.36 0.08 71.11% -0.494 -0.2143
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 506 60.68% 35.46 5.637 67.59% -0.195 0.2564
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 319 71.02% 33.52 -2.931 52.35% -0.89 0.1104
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 185 72.47% 33.67 5.432 44.32% -0.391 0.6497
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 589 66.79% 40.55 9.756 53.31% -0.302 0.857
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 186 29.73% 24.7 -1.309 83.33% 0.395 -0.0573
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 134 54.48% 26.18 -1.988 58.96% -0.901 -0.0985
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 173 52.02% 31.82 2.69 64.16% -0.331 0.106
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 121 67.77% 27.99 4.747 29.75% -0.972 0.2673
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 64 78.13% 30.86 -1.496 31.25% -0.646 0.497
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 66.67% 39.56 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 242 70.59% 44.43 14.825 33.06% -0.137 1.8333

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 15393 45.74 27.76 67.77% -0.508 0.1551 -0.547
1 Thematic 3054 51.69 32.17 57.07% -0.189 0.8681 -0.676
2 Archipelago 14 21.43 32.43 92.86% 0.143 0.6135 0.475
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2728 44.34 29.68 72.58% 0.269 0.7873 0.313
2 Coastline 379 47.14 28.98 69.13% 0.944 1.1443 0.621
2 Fragment 61 42.62 26.33 75.41% 0.295 0.5931 0.424
2 Heart 46 39.13 29.48 80.43% 0.875
2 Opposite Shores 530 44.66 27.65 66.6% -0.507 0.0319 -1.216
2 Thematic 588 45.61 33.85 67.69% -0.254 0.5278 -0.219
2 Top to Top 57 38.6 32.46 78.95% 0.464 0.5916 -0.552
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 47.0 100.0%
3 Coastline 6 40.0 36.33 66.67% -0.502 -1.0095 -0.688
3 Other 31 33.33 26.03 70.97% -0.691 -1.3549 -0.229
3 Round (Default) 1028 39.66 29.17 73.83% 0.63 0.9347 -0.072
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.187
3 Thematic 132 55.38 32.83 46.97% -0.195 0.0133 0.416
4 Archipelago 4 25.0 74.0 100.0% 0.159 0.1213 0.287
4 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0% 0.54
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 43 27.91 44.77 76.74% -0.334 -1.0484 0.333
4 Thematic 333 46.2 35.31 75.68% 0.259 0.3627 -0.26
4 Trapezoid (Default) 971 23.95 35.78 81.46% -0.309 -0.231 0.318
5 Archipelago 1 100.0 30.0 100.0% 0.2 0.1023
5 Coastline 2 0.0 28.5 100.0% -0.325
5 Other 23 26.67 31.57 95.65% 0.008 -0.508
5 Thematic 5 40.0 39.8 100.0%
6 Archipelago 12 100.0 33.08 91.67% 0.013 -0.1334 -0.132
6 Coastline 28 0.0 26.93 100.0% 0.027 -0.6066
6 Other 46 46.15 38.72 45.65% -0.31
6 Star 14 21.43 34.0 21.43% -0.433
6 Thematic 4 25.0 42.75 100.0% 0.067 0.3083 0.385
6 Two Centers (Default) 39 33.33 27.33 92.31% 0.048 0.2393 -0.302

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 498 23.0 43.37% -1.319 0.6514 -0.389
Aid From Lesser Spirits 583 22.26 33.79% -2.422 -0.6446 -0.467
All Things Weaken 257 25.32 40.47% -1.536 0.5128 -0.434
Back Against the Wall 563 22.89 32.86% -1.93 0.0087 -0.346
Disintegrating Ecosystem 899 20.81 37.82% -1.893 0.235 -1.067
Downward Spiral 2190 21.89 49.13% -1.467 0.494 -0.776
Erosion of Will 473 23.33 40.8% -1.468 0.6131 -0.255
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 208 31.59 73.08% 0.356 0.858 -0.171
Memory Fades to Dust 2245 20.0 42.85% -1.821 0.3195 -0.812
Power Corrodes the Spirit 541 25.98 45.47% -1.351 0.6297 -0.721
Promising Farmlands 925 23.34 41.73% -0.518 1.5035 -0.369
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 129 31.09 80.62% -0.078 0.4185 0.483
Thriving Communities 543 26.46 45.3% -1.497 0.562 -0.392
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.36
Unnatural Proliferation 375 28.57 46.13% -1.405 0.5524 -0.428
Untended Land Crumbles 526 24.69 44.49% -0.686 1.3468 -0.33

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5160 44.16% 28.29 69.67% -0.142 0.5939 -0.02
B 5200 42.99% 28.93 70.88% 0.055 0.7519 0.193
C 5354 42.35% 29.06 70.27% 0.468 0.9376 0.247
D 4720 42.49% 29.28 70.91% 0.338 1.0472 0.311
E 2124 40.01% 31.55 70.67% -0.037 0.5077 -0.095
F 3219 41.85% 30.02 71.2% 0.372 1.0337 0.052
G 2826 38.77% 30.22 72.43% -0.352 0.2791 0.207
H 2897 39.35% 31.16 73.94% -0.051 0.6132 0.074
East 2479 47.6% 34.03 64.34% 0.357 1.0189 0.157
Northeast 1426 48.79% 34.23 65.57% 0.53 1.1901 0.37
Northwest 1071 47.67% 34.2 65.45% -0.307 0.303 0.38
Southeast 423 48.7% 31.54 63.12% 0.471 1.0021 -0.057
Southwest 438 52.63% 30.4 65.3% -0.141 0.8271 0.451
West 2171 50.77% 32.39 60.85% -0.751 0.0543 -0.967

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 762 0.0% 28.75 80.71% -0.33 1.8991 -0.6
Not Using Events or Tokens 5112 48.65% 25.85 70.15% -0.09 0.1369 0.142
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2341 13.7% 47.71 89.06% 0.395 -0.5851 1.309
Start of Game Growth 3190 17.68% 46.02 84.23% 1.252 0.7951 1.029
Unlimited Undo 3186 35.73% 35.55 77.62% 0.158 -0.3932 0.417
Using Tokens but Not Events 3134 35.34% 31.8 79.96% -0.277 -0.1215 0.093

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4688 22.65 11.65%
II 8902 31.08 64.15%
III 8314 34.66 89.5%
IV 3680 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.307 Win Model: 0.037
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 18558 46.84% 28.56 65.99%
2 4331 44.21% 29.68 71.14%
3 1172 40.86% 29.56 71.67%
4 1369 29.54% 35.96 80.13%
5 12 50.0% 28.33 91.67%
6 142 37.88% 32.58 72.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 545
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7402
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5685
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3639
Lose: Invader deck ran out 203
Lose: Adversary condition 2591
Win: Sacrifice victory 107
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5103
Lose: Spirit destroyed 309

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)