Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 131 34.62% 26.87 -0.069 78.63% -0.53 -0.2464
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 132 43.18% 30.3 1.195 72.73% -0.745 -0.3341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 168 47.02% 35.4 4.266 67.26% -0.983 -0.1066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 116 52.59% 36.5 4.211 59.48% -1.592 -0.3462
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 60 66.67% 40.6 6.582 53.33% -1.645 -0.1435
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 25 88.0% 35.28 4.671 36.0% -1.721 0.2326
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 234 56.41% 44.52 7.509 48.29% -2.415 -0.372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 955 40.51% 23.3 -1.301 79.06% -0.193 -0.1511
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 757 43.68% 26.68 0.515 77.68% -0.232 -0.2504
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 843 50.66% 35.12 4.588 76.39% -0.235 -0.2223
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 672 57.49% 38.45 6.319 66.82% -0.72 -0.4319
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 408 65.06% 39.68 7.364 64.71% -0.661 -0.2942
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 368 77.01% 40.49 7.894 50.54% -1.341 -0.5147
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 842 58.2% 48.62 10.029 59.26% -1.592 -0.3536
The Kingdom of England 0 1 926 41.42% 22.43 -1.742 74.62% -0.553 -0.2211
The Kingdom of England 1 3 675 44.97% 30.44 2.216 72.0% -0.577 -0.063
The Kingdom of England 2 4 727 51.76% 29.86 2.007 59.15% -1.258 -0.29
The Kingdom of England 3 6 513 54.34% 35.5 4.207 53.8% -1.703 -0.1244
The Kingdom of England 4 7 402 54.94% 36.45 4.975 48.26% -2.045 -0.5466
The Kingdom of England 5 9 185 65.56% 37.3 5.633 36.22% -2.355 -0.282
The Kingdom of England 6 11 866 51.81% 48.01 9.298 50.35% -2.541 -0.293
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 473 44.37% 25.52 -0.403 68.92% -0.858 -0.3439
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 428 55.4% 26.92 0.295 60.51% -1.04 -0.1407
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 567 33.98% 21.53 -2.248 18.87% -4.214 -2.0717
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 343 38.42% 26.18 -0.187 18.37% -4.364 -2.1673
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 179 36.87% 28.36 0.926 17.88% -4.3 -2.142
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 141 32.62% 35.74 3.532 26.24% -4.041 -2.2239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 811 39.38% 37.78 4.509 26.02% -4.151 -2.0543
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 739 43.85% 22.02 -1.787 77.54% -0.151 -0.066
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 589 50.0% 25.22 -0.072 71.82% -0.371 -0.3374
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 645 57.75% 27.44 0.911 68.37% -0.475 -0.2402
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 521 60.27% 35.33 4.813 66.6% -0.629 -0.3424
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 329 70.99% 33.06 3.701 50.46% -1.232 -0.4482
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 192 72.97% 33.86 4.105 45.83% -1.499 -0.3327
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 584 66.9% 39.22 5.723 52.4% -1.655 -0.5306
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 133 28.03% 23.78 -2.02 84.21% -0.293 -0.3946
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 71 40.85% 27.69 0.097 67.61% -1.09 -0.311
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 106 49.06% 31.97 1.844 63.21% -1.305 -0.8859
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 88 65.91% 26.35 -0.309 28.41% -2.794 -1.5402
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 44 75.0% 30.82 2.744 34.09% -1.982 -0.8656
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 62.5% 38.19 4.487 31.25% -2.186 -0.1867
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 175 69.77% 46.93 9.058 40.0% -2.448 -0.57

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 14663 46.22 26.88 -0.991 67.9% -0.308 -0.1355
1 Thematic 3255 51.58 32.54 1.466 57.11% -0.734 -0.3725
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2755 45.15 29.88 0.651 72.41% 0.158 0.209
2 Coastline 378 48.11 26.72 -1.106 66.4% -0.147 -0.1399
2 Fragment 79 57.14 24.08 -1.772 58.23% -0.157 0.0995
2 Heart 47 31.91 27.79 -0.317 72.34% -0.147 -0.0053
2 Opposite Shores 495 44.68 27.7 -0.58 69.49% 0.032 0.1225
2 Thematic 680 44.25 34.2 1.623 64.26% -0.203 -0.2445
2 Top to Top 55 47.27 26.69 -0.581 72.73% 0.297 0.2667
3 Coastline 3 66.67 37.0 0.861 66.67% 0.221 0.0225
3 Other 29 28.57 28.66 -1.353 72.41% -0.705 -0.5302
3 Round (Default) 1016 44.58 28.09 -0.278 69.09% 0.238 0.1646
3 Sunrise 9 66.67 23.22 -0.983 55.56% 0.011 -0.2658
3 Thematic 143 47.52 35.63 1.455 55.24% -0.088 -0.4902
4 Leaf 2 50.0 22.5 -2.532 100.0% 0.26 0.2321
4 Other 39 28.21 40.51 1.186 74.36% -0.242 -0.3563
4 Thematic 286 42.25 34.38 -0.683 72.03% 0.044 -1.0405
4 Trapezoid (Default) 903 24.18 31.77 0.298 84.72% 0.609 0.522
5 Other 5 20.0 38.6 1.493 100.0% 0.384 -0.2194
5 Thematic 4 50.0 40.5 3.144 100.0% 0.522 -2.24

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 528 23.27 -3.427 42.99% -2.447 -0.3742
Aid From Lesser Spirits 637 21.36 -4.223 32.03% -2.903 -0.9852
All Things Weaken 168 25.32 -3.061 42.26% -2.357 -0.1864
Back Against the Wall 603 22.97 -3.819 33.67% -2.821 -0.7296
Disintegrating Ecosystem 945 20.47 -4.924 37.14% -2.636 -0.4114
Downward Spiral 2331 22.33 -3.49 50.92% -2.106 -0.0834
Erosion of Will 509 22.6 -3.507 40.86% -2.514 -0.3045
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 126 32.29 0.358 71.43% -0.735 -0.0486
Memory Fades to Dust 2311 20.19 -4.454 43.05% -2.525 -0.3067
Power Corrodes the Spirit 346 25.6 -3.076 45.66% -2.134 -0.1105
Promising Farmlands 1005 22.22 -3.975 41.69% -2.46 -0.2461
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 89 30.1 0.076 82.02% -0.249 0.1604
Thriving Communities 358 25.39 -3.088 43.58% -2.224 -0.129
Tipping Point 496 21.47 -4.015 40.52% -2.508 -0.2819
Unnatural Proliferation 246 28.4 -1.533 44.72% -2.049 0.0377
Untended Land Crumbles 352 23.47 -3.85 42.05% -2.373 -0.2671

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5444 45.59% 26.72 -0.749 68.92% 0.335 -0.4258
B 5374 43.37% 27.64 -0.322 71.7% 0.414 -0.4427
C 5643 43.14% 27.76 -0.242 71.2% 0.434 -0.6549
D 5093 44.07% 27.5 -0.425 70.29% 0.368 -0.4825
E 1350 41.66% 31.68 0.461 68.3% 0.324 -0.6411
F 2306 41.26% 29.89 0.026 71.29% 0.322 -0.5922
G 2081 40.03% 30.18 0.178 71.31% 0.36 -0.5453
H 2121 39.93% 31.2 0.729 73.55% 0.464 -0.45
East 1417 43.86% 34.8 1.681 63.66% 0.342 -0.3072
Northeast 1504 47.45% 34.69 1.942 64.23% 0.467 -0.1322
Northwest 1178 47.07% 34.12 1.638 63.75% 0.543 -0.1267
Southeast 307 45.93% 31.4 -0.1 64.17% 0.2 -0.506
Southwest 318 49.69% 30.04 -1.311 64.15% 0.211 -0.0618
West 1325 50.65% 32.2 0.403 57.06% 0.085 -0.3141

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 722 0.0% 26.93 -3.065 77.01% -1.785 0.2715
Not Using Events or Tokens 5002 50.97% 25.27 -1.091 69.29% -0.274 -0.0578
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2223 15.1% 47.51 5.827 87.81% 0.839 0.1521
Start of Game Growth 2868 17.73% 46.27 5.885 85.63% 0.847 0.3764
Unlimited Undo 3036 37.74% 35.54 1.517 76.48% 0.316 -0.1041
Using Tokens but Not Events 2695 33.97% 30.91 0.295 80.96% 0.091 0.0389

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4587 22.35 11.58%
II 8742 30.84 64.21%
III 8015 34.35 89.03%
IV 3502 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.091 Win Model: -0.421
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 17963 47.19% 27.94 65.99%
2 4458 45.33% 29.75 69.96%
3 1190 44.91% 29.01 67.48%
4 1235 28.55% 32.63 81.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 391
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5573
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4097
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2717
Lose: Invader deck ran out 213
Lose: Adversary condition 2308
Win: Sacrifice victory 109
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5186
Lose: Spirit destroyed 357

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)