Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 16 18.75% 12.56 -1.785 31.25% -0.424 -0.4322
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 10 20.0% 10.4 -1.997 30.0% -0.458 -0.8356
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 11 27.27% 32.73 6.68 63.64% 0.469 0.4502
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 7 28.57% 6.71 -4.472 14.29% -0.783 -0.8934
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 7 71.43% 21.71 3.116 14.29% -0.999 -0.5448
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 2 0.0% 0.0 -8.521 0.0% -0.779 0.0517
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 32 25.0% 56.63 6.241 56.25% -1.434 0.2651
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 367 26.23% 22.43 1.745 61.04% 0.511 0.9227
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 409 34.8% 22.19 -1.799 51.1% -0.742 -0.3803
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 402 46.25% 30.87 2.095 52.74% -0.068 0.4189
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 425 31.29% 42.28 1.778 46.82% -0.532 0.4639
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 109 59.63% 32.92 -8.222 42.2% -0.837 0.7151
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 50 60.0% 25.74 -7.828 22.0% -0.394 1.5048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 515 44.38% 41.37 8.266 38.83% -0.284 1.6532
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1397 36.1% 20.04 -1.817 64.92% -0.291 -0.1011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1248 35.92% 23.54 -0.226 64.58% -0.097 -0.0878
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1283 44.47% 32.18 0.316 68.04% -0.631 -0.5725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1099 49.95% 38.11 7.785 69.06% 0.118 0.391
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 717 43.48% 40.6 3.867 67.78% -0.38 -0.0506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 465 69.3% 39.59 6.59 50.11% -0.275 0.1312
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1160 55.24% 41.77 5.383 49.4% -0.95 0.3548
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1420 37.07% 18.69 -0.492 61.13% 0.283 0.5844
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1094 38.96% 25.89 0.824 60.88% -0.031 0.2965
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1092 47.96% 26.96 0.051 53.02% -0.591 -0.0132
The Kingdom of England 3 6 694 46.06% 32.22 3.122 47.12% -0.402 0.6954
The Kingdom of England 4 7 661 41.68% 37.26 4.832 47.2% -0.482 0.558
The Kingdom of England 5 9 318 51.43% 36.83 3.402 38.68% -0.583 1.2105
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2635 29.18% 49.86 10.649 48.61% -0.299 1.5999
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 692 41.1% 21.77 -3.382 57.23% -0.738 -0.2931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 682 48.09% 23.05 -1.144 52.2% -0.482 0.2967
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 769 32.29% 20.26 -4.158 17.82% -1.68 -0.4421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 510 28.68% 33.17 2.408 27.84% -0.912 0.4015
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 247 26.72% 25.73 -4.09 16.6% -2.115 -0.8224
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 191 28.27% 33.53 4.57 25.13% -0.767 0.2531
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1214 34.35% 42.37 -2.829 30.56% -0.69 0.7456
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 152 20.39% 17.42 -2.667 47.37% -0.008 0.2565
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 191 21.99% 17.03 1.204 38.74% -0.273 0.0725
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 157 26.11% 22.89 -2.252 40.13% -0.684 -0.3932
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 231 21.65% 48.42 7.756 56.71% -0.347 -0.2311
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 196 16.84% 48.26 6.264 44.9% -0.413 0.2449
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 115 20.87% 59.73 8.819 66.96% 0.07 0.6906
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 745 17.05% 57.79 11.097 53.69% -0.38 0.6668
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1121 37.6% 18.68 -3.149 62.71% -0.69 -0.4187
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 948 43.93% 21.28 -1.425 59.28% -0.194 -0.0608
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1136 47.96% 24.93 -1.674 58.98% -0.504 -0.2387
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 794 53.23% 31.13 1.163 58.06% -0.326 0.0011
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 468 60.26% 33.98 1.025 49.79% -0.295 0.4695
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 280 61.9% 26.87 -1.996 35.36% -1.315 -0.1524
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 860 55.68% 39.67 5.065 50.81% -0.422 0.63
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 349 25.65% 19.37 -0.561 60.46% 0.388 0.5993
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 296 38.18% 19.95 -3.709 44.93% -0.98 -0.2643
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 369 36.59% 29.05 2.933 53.39% 0.035 0.2669
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 233 46.78% 34.82 -4.837 36.91% -1.265 -0.3561
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 103 64.08% 22.3 -8.692 21.36% -0.73 0.4812
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 48 60.42% 26.0 -0.196 20.83% -0.319 1.2973
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 363 57.66% 43.32 -5.302 34.44% -1.379 0.2286

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 24197 40.12 26.26 59.78% 0.114 0.3872 -0.921
1 Thematic 4195 45.48 27.6 49.96% -0.44 0.1351 -1.039
2 Archipelago 32 38.71 28.0 75.0% -0.027 0.65 -0.276
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4331 38.14 26.35 63.84% 0.159 0.2274 0.02
2 Coastline 585 43.88 26.3 62.56% -0.433 -0.6518 0.179
2 Fragment 103 43.69 26.08 72.82% 0.566 0.2997 0.291
2 Heart 64 35.48 26.5 78.13% 0.474 0.0041 0.843
2 Opposite Shores 843 39.16 30.93 66.9% 1.337 1.3147 -0.472
2 Thematic 924 39.08 27.22 54.65% -0.194 0.179 -0.74
2 Top to Top 114 41.07 32.83 71.05% 0.751 0.4938 -0.034
3 Archipelago 8 50.0 45.25 100.0%
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% -0.79
3 Other 52 40.43 25.87 63.46% -0.713 -1.4765 -0.155
3 Round (Default) 1681 34.51 26.94 65.38% 0.352 0.1984 -0.03
3 Sunrise 7 71.43 22.0 42.86% -0.135
3 Thematic 225 40.81 24.81 39.11% -0.699 -0.8465 0.32
4 Archipelago 6 50.0 62.67 100.0% 0.672
4 Coastline 8 16.67 24.63 75.0% 0.215 0.1588 0.436
4 Leaf 8 0.0 11.38 50.0% -0.306 -0.3964
4 Other 61 32.79 37.77 65.57% -0.318 -1.0024 0.375
4 Thematic 475 43.07 31.46 69.05% -0.128 -0.3058 -0.882
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1379 20.68 37.32 79.04% 0.493 0.1633 1.315
5 Archipelago 5 80.0 48.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.29
5 Other 57 20.41 23.46 64.91% -0.227 -0.9769 -0.545
5 Thematic 14 50.0 26.36 57.14% 0.32 -0.067 -0.164
6 Archipelago 19 25.0 33.21 94.74% 0.159 -0.8121 -0.14
6 Coastline 51 0.0 28.0 98.04% -0.003
6 Other 136 32.77 25.57 33.82% -0.417 -0.8343 -1.043
6 Star 28 35.71 24.18 32.14% -0.456 -0.1206 -0.325
6 Thematic 23 39.13 25.3 52.17% -0.031 -0.0794 0.737
6 Two Centers (Default) 105 7.46 23.05 78.1% -0.791
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.745

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 622 22.79 43.41% -0.461 -0.3892 -0.117
Aid From Lesser Spirits 733 22.26 33.7% 0.443 0.3718 -0.347
All Things Weaken 337 24.73 40.36% -0.744 -0.4852 -0.264
Attenuated Essence 95 21.2 50.53% 0.91 0.8737 -0.919
Back Against the Wall 693 22.95 33.91% 0.308 0.3615 -0.242
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 116 26.47 53.45% 0.613 0.7584 -0.208
Burn Brightest Before the End 71 28.13 47.89% 0.517 0.5334 -0.374
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1104 20.59 37.86% -0.3 -0.112 -0.585
Downward Spiral 3021 20.95 47.93% 0.549 0.6233 -0.488
Erosion of Will 615 22.17 40.16% -0.55 -0.395 -0.313
Intensifying Exploitation 131 19.43 41.22% -0.031 0.1044 -1.282
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 291 30.34 72.51% 0.218 -0.3959 -0.002
Memory Fades to Dust 3001 19.24 40.65% 0.185 0.3884 -0.573
Power Corrodes the Spirit 729 24.76 44.17% 0.301 0.4753 -0.468
Promising Farmlands 1130 23.01 42.12% -0.085 0.1135 -0.17
Shattered Fragments of Power 80 22.79 30.0% 0.037 0.0396 -1.103
Slow Dissolution of Will 48 26.38 35.42% 0.305 0.6029 -0.044
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 174 31.66 82.76% 0.799 0.1016 0.821
The Border of Life and Death 34 26.0 61.76% 0.696 0.1982 -0.021
Thriving Communities 727 25.05 44.15% 0.322 0.4787 -0.335
Thriving Crops 66 29.97 69.7% 1.073 0.7611 0.995
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.242
Unnatural Proliferation 492 27.9 46.75% 0.467 0.5752 -0.325
Untended Land Crumbles 721 23.7 43.83% -0.044 0.1376 -0.334

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8212 38.59% 26.09 61.47% -0.043 0.9325 -0.545
B 8199 36.8% 27.46 63.68% -0.373 0.516 -0.427
C 8392 37.5% 27.67 63.54% -0.253 0.4391 -0.362
D 7754 36.33% 27.33 62.38% -0.198 0.6973 -0.418
E 3743 34.37% 29.66 64.33% 0.014 0.7436 -0.5
F 4924 36.77% 28.27 64.81% 0.228 1.0597 -0.378
G 4335 34.65% 28.76 64.98% -0.415 0.3648 -0.578
H 4477 34.77% 29.31 66.56% -0.054 0.7288 -0.56
East 3600 41.78% 28.69 55.39% -0.617 0.1919 -0.34
Northeast 2064 42.66% 29.18 57.17% -0.238 0.56 -0.18
Northwest 1572 40.74% 28.69 56.04% -0.755 -0.0211 -0.34
Southeast 707 40.59% 25.25 51.63% -0.606 0.2872 -0.682
Southwest 733 43.44% 24.54 53.48% -0.093 1.1654 -0.286
West 3211 43.77% 27.01 51.79% 0.135 1.1326 -1.263

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1074 0.0% 24.14 70.76% -0.338 0.33 -0.448
Not Using Events or Tokens 8157 43.85% 22.01 58.33% -0.52 -0.0994 -0.077
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4518 11.48% 51.39 77.16% 0.92 0.1514 0.871
Start of Game Growth 5669 14.25% 48.35 75.71% 1.248 0.8099 1.235
Unlimited Undo 5835 26.93% 38.9 66.94% -0.985 -1.0502 -0.033
Using Tokens but Not Events 4553 33.04% 29.43 73.8% 0.541 0.4985 0.387

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10886 13.76 7.03%
II 12351 30.19 63.82%
III 11483 34.82 89.51%
IV 5070 38.63 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.327 Win Model: 0.1
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 28798 40.86% 26.35 57.99%
2 6718 39.27% 27.55 64.66%
3 1918 34.95% 27.03 63.56%
4 1940 26.57% 35.8 76.39%
5 57 27.66% 24.35 61.4%
6 359 24.8% 25.44 59.89%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 764
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10209
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7852
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5008
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4997
Lose: Invader deck ran out 303
Lose: Adversary condition 3515
Win: Sacrifice victory 161
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6592
Lose: Spirit destroyed 389

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)