Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 29 20.69% 14.1 -2.047 37.93% -0.575 -0.0884
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 19 10.53% 10.21 -3.81 26.32% -1.128 -1.1086
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 16 25.0% 27.56 0.45 56.25% -0.596 -0.4418
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 11 45.45% 11.91 1.571 18.18% -0.641 -0.5139
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 8 62.5% 19.0 -0.23 12.5% -0.658 -0.1541
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 -8.511 0.0% -0.74 0.233
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 35 22.86% 53.71 -1.835 51.43% -1.088 0.829
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 390 26.74% 22.27 1.541 60.51% -0.217 0.2561
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 425 34.91% 21.76 -2.894 50.12% -0.903 -0.6121
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 404 46.27% 30.83 4.742 52.72% 0.376 0.9181
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 434 30.88% 41.8 2.402 46.54% -0.455 0.4907
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 114 60.53% 32.4 -0.812 41.23% -1.108 0.1702
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 54 55.56% 26.3 2.19 24.07% -0.487 0.9808
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 520 44.14% 41.02 -7.47 38.46% -1.847 -0.0496
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1461 35.6% 19.72 -1.572 64.07% -0.24 -0.0174
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1307 35.63% 22.98 -2.696 63.05% -0.753 -0.7864
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1305 44.25% 31.95 1.604 67.59% -0.43 -0.4168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1115 49.5% 37.89 5.263 68.7% -0.241 0.0012
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 724 43.48% 40.62 9.491 67.82% 0.077 0.2722
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 474 68.6% 39.62 9.147 50.42% 0.133 0.5113
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1194 54.53% 41.29 2.031 48.91% -1.135 0.1055
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1473 36.6% 18.37 -2.246 60.01% -0.702 -0.3926
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1125 38.95% 25.48 -2.093 59.91% -0.892 -0.5723
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1108 47.8% 26.92 3.81 52.98% -0.07 0.4094
The Kingdom of England 3 6 709 45.64% 32.06 6.146 46.97% -0.059 0.9805
The Kingdom of England 4 7 676 41.79% 36.98 2.113 46.75% -1.468 -0.4688
The Kingdom of England 5 9 320 51.1% 36.82 -2.209 38.75% -0.695 0.8148
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2812 27.61% 50.21 8.159 49.11% -0.802 1.0411
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 718 40.31% 21.56 -0.392 56.82% -0.233 0.1438
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 706 47.59% 22.52 -3.686 50.85% -1.765 -0.8874
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 811 32.35% 20.05 -1.045 17.39% -2.095 -0.9114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 518 29.01% 32.96 2.249 27.8% -1.036 0.1039
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 251 26.29% 26.22 5.258 17.53% -0.956 0.3534
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 193 28.5% 33.29 5.794 24.87% -0.734 0.5387
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1226 34.18% 42.28 3.716 30.59% -1.354 0.0388
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 182 19.23% 16.95 -1.185 47.25% -0.151 0.1687
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 204 22.06% 16.51 -3.527 37.75% -1.06 -0.5717
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 168 25.0% 22.65 -0.331 39.88% -0.777 -0.3713
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 236 22.46% 48.29 12.292 57.2% 0.094 0.1223
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 204 17.16% 47.31 4.496 44.61% -0.64 -0.1332
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 119 22.69% 58.79 10.719 66.39% 0.197 0.6546
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 862 15.43% 57.84 6.874 53.13% -0.938 0.1425
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1155 37.8% 18.66 0.257 62.42% 0.079 0.3216
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 975 43.42% 21.0 -3.046 58.56% -0.797 -0.7622
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1170 47.34% 24.47 -3.602 57.86% -1.299 -1.0578
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 830 53.33% 30.78 3.062 57.59% -0.218 0.0328
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 479 59.92% 33.55 1.529 49.27% -0.458 0.2962
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 294 60.98% 25.77 -6.395 33.67% -2.147 -1.0485
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 881 55.01% 39.22 3.534 50.28% -0.884 0.0119
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 382 24.74% 18.61 -2.799 58.12% -0.731 -0.491
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 312 36.54% 19.19 -5.316 43.27% -1.52 -0.7657
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 378 37.04% 28.89 0.563 53.17% -0.383 -0.0154
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 239 46.86% 34.25 -4.139 36.4% -1.337 -0.1667
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 107 61.68% 21.47 -7.204 20.56% -1.037 -0.0802
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 48 60.42% 26.0 0.0 20.83%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 368 57.14% 42.86 -4.093 33.97% -1.19 0.3264

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 25125 39.63 26.11 59.25% 0.225 0.7513 -0.916
1 Thematic 4310 44.84 27.29 49.51% -0.208 0.6462 -1.043
2 Archipelago 33 40.63 27.52 72.73% -0.33 0.7251 -0.254
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4477 37.79 26.12 63.39% -0.115 0.163 -0.004
2 Coastline 610 44.05 25.92 62.95% 0.953 1.0558 0.203
2 Fragment 105 42.86 25.93 73.33% 0.707 0.7204 0.333
2 Heart 68 36.36 25.71 76.47% -0.331 -0.2199 0.845
2 Opposite Shores 874 38.84 30.88 67.16% 0.909 1.2456 -0.429
2 Thematic 956 39.03 26.79 53.66% -0.48 0.2092 -0.73
2 Top to Top 120 43.22 31.99 71.67% 0.727 0.969 -0.002
3 Archipelago 8 50.0 45.25 100.0%
3 Coastline 9 28.57 34.33 66.67% -0.8
3 Other 55 42.0 25.75 65.45% 0.746 0.1435 -0.156
3 Round (Default) 1734 34.33 26.62 64.65% -0.344 -0.338 -0.047
3 Sunrise 7 71.43 22.0 42.86% -0.145
3 Thematic 227 40.44 24.59 38.77% -0.446 -0.3617 0.326
4 Archipelago 7 42.86 57.43 100.0% 0.524 0.6749 0.681
4 Coastline 8 16.67 24.63 75.0% 0.413
4 Leaf 8 0.0 11.38 50.0% -0.199 -0.0615
4 Other 62 32.26 37.16 64.52% -0.015 -0.6341 0.402
4 Thematic 479 42.71 31.24 68.68% -0.112 0.156 -0.91
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1402 20.7 37.22 78.96% 0.771 0.9351 1.366
5 Archipelago 5 80.0 48.0 100.0%
5 Coastline 3 0.0 29.33 100.0% -0.303
5 Other 60 19.23 22.28 61.67% -1.039 -1.425 -0.529
5 Thematic 14 50.0 26.36 57.14% -0.177
6 Archipelago 19 25.0 33.21 94.74% -0.144
6 Coastline 51 0.0 28.0 98.04% -0.002
6 Other 136 32.77 25.57 33.82% 0.091 0.0604 -1.121
6 Star 28 35.71 24.18 32.14% -0.324
6 Thematic 23 39.13 25.3 52.17% 0.738
6 Two Centers (Default) 109 7.04 22.2 75.23% -1.225 -0.6605 -0.823
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.739

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 633 22.91 43.44% 0.068 0.3176 -0.137
Aid From Lesser Spirits 750 22.28 34.4% 0.359 0.2405 -0.312
All Things Weaken 341 24.65 40.47% -0.511 -0.1743 -0.228
Attenuated Essence 103 21.04 50.49% 0.554 0.5811 -0.911
Back Against the Wall 704 22.94 33.95% -0.184 -0.1828 -0.21
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 130 25.21 51.54% -0.392 -0.1748 -0.229
Burn Brightest Before the End 77 27.35 48.05% 0.066 0.0479 -0.356
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1117 20.51 37.78% -0.998 -0.6053 -0.56
Downward Spiral 3092 20.73 47.54% -0.041 0.0669 -0.441
Erosion of Will 631 22.1 40.41% -0.167 0.1851 -0.283
Intensifying Exploitation 143 19.18 41.26% 0.23 0.4753 -1.248
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 299 30.22 72.24% 0.776 0.2516 0.025
Memory Fades to Dust 3065 19.1 40.55% 0.057 0.3049 -0.521
Power Corrodes the Spirit 744 24.65 44.09% -0.332 -0.11 -0.408
Promising Farmlands 1152 22.96 42.45% 0.639 0.9221 -0.142
Shattered Fragments of Power 86 22.94 32.56% 0.748 0.8245 -1.078
Slow Dissolution of Will 57 25.54 36.84% -0.439 -0.0417 -0.016
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 180 31.98 83.33% 0.808 0.1122 0.864
The Border of Life and Death 37 25.68 62.16% 0.376 -0.2244 -0.014
Thriving Communities 751 24.81 43.68% -0.615 -0.2585 -0.295
Thriving Crops 72 28.82 69.44% 0.364 0.1676 1.001
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.224
Unnatural Proliferation 503 27.79 47.12% 0.801 0.9631 -0.303
Untended Land Crumbles 738 23.72 44.31% 0.623 0.8541 -0.281

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 8475 38.35% 25.93 61.04% -0.198 0.8071 -0.543
B 8491 36.5% 27.18 63.14% -0.3 0.6199 -0.486
C 8639 37.17% 27.44 62.99% -0.255 0.4792 -0.395
D 8002 36.0% 27.13 61.97% -0.196 0.7818 -0.451
E 3898 34.02% 29.42 63.75% -0.308 0.5122 -0.546
F 5101 36.5% 28.02 64.24% -0.365 0.5089 -0.439
G 4490 34.38% 28.53 64.61% -0.215 0.5942 -0.603
H 4605 34.53% 29.14 66.23% -0.183 0.6319 -0.587
East 3693 41.34% 28.37 54.75% -1.271 -0.3684 -0.348
Northeast 2118 42.28% 28.87 56.56% -0.213 0.5954 -0.18
Northwest 1606 40.3% 28.49 55.67% 0.089 0.9892 -0.352
Southeast 728 39.97% 24.97 51.1% -0.613 0.2379 -0.72
Southwest 762 42.58% 24.06 52.49% -0.471 0.9048 -0.319
West 3290 43.35% 26.73 51.31% -0.476 0.4794 -1.296

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1091 0.0% 23.92 70.12% -1.07 -0.3626 -0.395
Not Using Events or Tokens 8421 43.57% 21.66 57.53% -0.381 -0.0132 -0.122
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4727 11.16% 51.54 76.5% 1.178 0.5928 0.872
Start of Game Growth 5894 13.91% 48.49 75.14% 0.698 0.1844 1.242
Unlimited Undo 6074 26.17% 39.23 66.5% -0.851 -0.9602 -0.045
Using Tokens but Not Events 4660 33.0% 29.13 73.3% 0.146 0.1208 0.404

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11518 13.33 6.74%
II 12664 30.1 63.84%
III 11772 34.83 89.61%
IV 5221 38.67 99.96%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.438 Win Model: 0.388
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 29880 40.33% 26.16 57.47%
2 6930 39.08% 27.35 64.4%
3 1974 34.84% 26.74 63.02%
4 1968 26.44% 35.68 76.27%
5 60 26.0% 23.13 58.33%
6 363 24.42% 25.16 59.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 775
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10477
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8053
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5159
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5531
Lose: Invader deck ran out 304
Lose: Adversary condition 3597
Win: Sacrifice victory 165
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6712
Lose: Spirit destroyed 402

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)