Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 175 33.91% 27.28 0.604 77.71% -0.111 0.44
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 194 43.81% 30.16 2.731 70.1% -0.225 0.6532
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 241 54.36% 33.99 4.847 62.66% -0.188 0.9314
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 151 54.97% 35.19 5.216 54.97% -0.211 1.3201
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 73 71.23% 40.52 0.0 53.42%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 27 88.89% 34.07 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 319 58.93% 41.62 3.85 41.07% -1.351 0.9099
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 904 40.7% 23.28 -2.484 78.32% -0.214 0.0306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 744 41.95% 27.09 2.051 77.28% 0.395 0.2683
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 851 49.94% 35.07 3.642 76.26% -0.465 -0.3487
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 822 53.42% 39.89 5.401 72.87% -0.733 -0.3592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 424 53.27% 42.18 9.85 70.28% 0.001 0.4669
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 348 74.12% 42.01 11.098 54.02% -0.713 0.2721
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 681 61.77% 46.73 3.527 56.09% -1.577 -0.0017
The Kingdom of England 0 1 871 42.17% 22.74 -0.695 75.77% 0.418 0.9341
The Kingdom of England 1 3 675 42.45% 30.56 1.163 72.59% -0.47 0.1393
The Kingdom of England 2 4 698 52.86% 30.05 2.83 60.46% -0.422 0.705
The Kingdom of England 3 6 481 51.73% 34.61 -1.106 51.14% -2.198 -0.4547
The Kingdom of England 4 7 361 54.08% 38.64 5.076 54.02% -0.705 0.8741
The Kingdom of England 5 9 198 57.44% 40.49 16.165 44.44% 0.564 2.3014
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1000 51.97% 46.4 7.656 44.4% -1.538 0.7611
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 424 43.74% 25.96 1.745 69.58% -0.034 0.8686
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 417 55.42% 27.74 3.002 63.55% 0.059 0.9495
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 539 34.39% 21.85 1.898 19.48% -1.379 1.023
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 327 37.73% 27.97 2.681 22.02% -1.478 0.9065
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 148 32.43% 30.84 -1.936 22.97% -1.966 0.5095
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 122 30.33% 36.97 1.906 29.51% -1.871 0.2065
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 862 40.21% 38.54 6.392 25.41% -1.544 0.8227
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 33.5 2.573 75.0% -0.273 -0.3972
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 7 71.43% 27.29 0.581 57.14% 0.09 0.9347
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 9 22.22% 35.44 3.146 66.67% -0.465 0.364
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4 50.0% 43.5 5.738 75.0% 0.038 0.9086
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 39.0 7.009 50.0% -0.373 0.8627
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 0.0% 47.33 7.956 66.67% -0.718 0.7136
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 9 77.78% 57.0 12.584 77.78% 0.022 1.7207
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 698 44.65% 22.28 2.393 76.5% 0.764 0.9308
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 548 49.91% 26.09 2.315 73.72% 0.362 0.1387
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 630 55.13% 28.21 1.789 71.27% 0.068 0.5217
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 479 62.03% 34.99 7.362 67.01% 0.791 1.1004
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 314 70.55% 33.66 7.325 52.87% 0.205 1.1571
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 179 72.67% 33.56 2.719 44.13% -0.884 0.097
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 553 67.55% 39.53 7.363 52.44% -0.379 0.8126
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 174 28.32% 25.0 1.775 84.48% -0.17 -0.2261
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 116 51.72% 26.73 2.315 61.21% -0.143 0.6309
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 164 53.05% 31.79 8.106 64.02% 0.455 1.166
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 113 69.03% 26.91 0.0 30.09%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 58 77.59% 31.31 14.518 34.48% 0.023 1.408
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 66.67% 39.56 23.62 33.33% 0.364 2.3015
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 237 70.51% 44.31 2.316 32.91% -2.416 -0.3971

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 14586 45.99 27.75 67.86% 0.345 1.3608 -0.343
1 Thematic 2943 51.79 32.16 56.74% 0.375 1.5475 -0.43
2 Archipelago 12 25.0 34.17 91.67% 0.15 1.1333 0.485
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2584 45.12 29.2 71.87% -0.316 0.4353 0.303
2 Coastline 361 47.56 27.88 68.42% 0.381 0.9835 0.524
2 Fragment 56 44.64 25.38 75.0% -0.066 0.3816 0.431
2 Heart 43 34.88 28.84 83.72% 0.469 1.0077 0.525
2 Opposite Shores 513 45.12 27.5 66.28% -0.267 0.7251 -1.359
2 Thematic 562 45.41 33.92 68.15% -0.087 0.6112 -0.165
2 Top to Top 50 40.0 29.26 76.0% 0.249 0.7597 -0.741
3 Archipelago 1 100.0 47.0 100.0% 0.049 0.2217
3 Coastline 5 50.0 35.6 80.0% 0.016 -0.7672 -0.415
3 Other 30 30.77 26.73 73.33% 0.134 0.0982 -0.202
3 Round (Default) 962 40.57 28.66 72.66% -0.413 0.1819 -0.099
3 Sunrise 6 83.33 22.0 50.0% -0.269 -0.2327 -0.173
3 Thematic 122 55.83 32.8 47.54% -0.903 -0.9402 0.625
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 44.0 100.0%
4 Coastline 2 0.0 28.5 100.0% 0.049 0.1655
4 Leaf 1 0.0 25.0 100.0%
4 Other 38 28.95 43.79 76.32% 0.244
4 Thematic 304 46.84 34.92 74.67% 0.135 0.6638 -0.21
4 Trapezoid (Default) 899 24.72 34.49 81.54% 0.018 -0.0087 0.135
5 Coastline 2 0.0 28.5 100.0% 0.019 -0.5453
5 Other 19 26.67 32.0 94.74% 0.048 0.2167
5 Thematic 5 40.0 39.8 100.0%
6 Archipelago 3 100.0 31.0 66.67% 0.018 -0.2376 -0.12
6 Coastline 13 0.0 26.31 100.0% 0.089 -0.5001
6 Other 29 51.85 40.28 48.28% 0.313 1.1219 0.374
6 Star 14 21.43 34.0 21.43% 0.02 0.8035 -0.401
6 Thematic 2 0.0 36.0 100.0%
6 Two Centers (Default) 19 37.5 27.21 84.21% -0.583 -0.6768 -0.215

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 481 23.21 43.66% -1.188 0.7153 -0.327
Aid From Lesser Spirits 555 22.57 34.41% -1.259 0.471 -0.362
All Things Weaken 241 25.8 42.74% -0.534 1.451 -0.368
Back Against the Wall 544 23.05 33.09% -1.606 0.2106 -0.242
Disintegrating Ecosystem 856 20.98 37.85% -1.694 0.3566 -0.95
Downward Spiral 2111 21.88 49.08% -1.444 0.5488 -0.762
Erosion of Will 453 23.12 40.84% -1.768 0.3155 -0.193
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 196 31.9 71.94% 0.681 1.122 -0.314
Memory Fades to Dust 2163 19.95 42.95% -1.756 0.3286 -0.839
Power Corrodes the Spirit 505 25.8 45.54% -1.337 0.6011 -0.79
Promising Farmlands 895 23.22 41.23% -0.93 1.1159 -0.352
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 123 31.28 82.11% 0.365 0.7901 0.74
Thriving Communities 508 26.21 45.67% -1.186 0.798 -0.364
Tipping Point 254 22.98 41.73% -0.318
Unnatural Proliferation 351 28.85 47.01% -1.345 0.6199 -0.338
Untended Land Crumbles 490 24.59 44.08% -0.752 1.2417 -0.31

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4827 44.97% 27.73 69.17% -0.234 0.5632 0.04
B 4841 43.68% 28.41 70.67% -0.198 0.5457 0.222
C 4994 43.02% 28.44 69.72% 0.177 0.7458 0.295
D 4413 43.22% 28.83 70.43% 0.023 0.819 0.393
E 1937 41.18% 31.31 69.59% 0.185 0.832 -0.034
F 3003 41.9% 29.79 70.96% 0.025 0.7492 0.113
G 2667 39.21% 30.02 71.77% 0.253 0.9848 0.153
H 2708 39.3% 31.26 73.74% 0.098 0.81 0.137
East 2361 47.76% 33.89 63.96% -0.995 -0.2265 0.332
Northeast 1366 49.0% 34.08 65.01% -0.376 0.4842 0.425
Northwest 1028 47.97% 34.21 65.08% -0.31 0.7664 0.358
Southeast 389 49.61% 30.94 61.44% -0.884 -0.1782 -0.265
Southwest 388 52.58% 29.91 65.21% 0.972 2.0974 0.551
West 2057 50.86% 32.4 60.67% -0.375 0.5787 -0.912

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 635 0.0% 28.35 77.95% -0.255 1.8741 -0.255
Not Using Events or Tokens 4876 49.18% 25.49 69.83% -0.135 0.0404 0.125
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2071 13.75% 48.13 88.65% 0.04 -0.1022 0.293
Start of Game Growth 2842 17.79% 46.33 83.99% 1.135 0.3747 1.11
Unlimited Undo 2879 37.11% 35.48 76.21% 0.131 -0.4725 0.421
Using Tokens but Not Events 2809 35.4% 31.83 80.67% 0.501 0.3446 0.665

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4410 22.56 10.75%
II 8401 30.98 63.69%
III 7872 34.53 89.53%
IV 3505 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.321 Win Model: 0.248
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 17626 47.06% 28.55 65.99%
2 4119 44.91% 29.25 70.5%
3 1098 41.57% 29.19 71.04%
4 1258 30.23% 34.8 79.89%
5 8 50.0% 27.75 87.5%
6 79 39.22% 33.54 63.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 473
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7011
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5325
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3466
Lose: Invader deck ran out 197
Lose: Adversary condition 2445
Win: Sacrifice victory 103
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4872
Lose: Spirit destroyed 296

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)