Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 38 65.79% 23.97 47.37% 0.406 -0.0405 0.0
Blitz 0 17 25.0% 31.06 82.35% 0.299 0.7562 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 29 37.93% 75.48 79.31% -0.402 -0.3824 0.519
Despicable Theft 2 7 42.86% 35.14 71.43% 0.0 0.5125 -0.168
Elemental Invocation 1 10 70.0% 39.6 50.0% -0.464 0.2353 -0.01
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 104 20.19% 44.2 80.77% -0.283 -0.2422 0.955
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 25.0% 43.0 87.5% -0.238 0.3234 0.566
Rituals of Terror 3 10 50.0% 63.3 80.0% 0.575 0.2876 0.116
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 31.5 50.0% 0.0 0.4303 -0.185
Second Wave 0 40 47.5% 31.75 80.0% 0.545 1.007 0.0
The Great River 3 5 60.0% 22.8 40.0% -1.081 0.6853 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 22 68.18% 31.09 68.18% -0.415 0.4136 -0.36
Ward the Shores 2 13 76.92% 35.62 61.54% 0.161 0.9046 0.491

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1084 54.55% 30.06 71.77% -0.29 0.2605 -0.393
1 Thematic 32 67.74% 32.88 68.75% 0.413 1.4112 -0.182
2 Archipelago 3 0.0% 37.33 100.0% 0.102 0.72 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 312 51.99% 30.78 72.76% -0.197 0.2127 0.26
2 Coastline 29 27.59% 31.79 89.66% -0.486 -0.35 -0.309
2 Fragment 6 50.0% 28.33 100.0% 0.28 0.2755 0.0
2 Heart 6 83.33% 32.83 83.33% 0.0 0.4749 0.0
2 Opposite Shores 84 50.0% 26.56 85.71% 0.558 0.9119 -0.218
2 Thematic 15 64.29% 42.8 66.67% -0.213 0.7169 0.393
2 Top to Top 10 40.0% 27.1 80.0% -0.119 0.0077 -0.35
3 Archipelago 4 25.0% 53.25 100.0% 0.136 0.3147 0.226
3 Coastline 6 16.67% 26.67 83.33% 0.0 -0.4167 0.0
3 Other 14 7.14% 27.07 92.86% 0.423 -0.2962 -0.299
3 Round (Default) 179 47.46% 31.64 78.77% -0.063 0.1309 0.736
3 Thematic 4 100.0% 57.0 100.0% 0.252 0.2668 0.293
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 50.75 50.0% 0.0 -0.4195 0.24
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0727 0.0
4 Other 7 14.29% 21.57 100.0% 0.0 -0.6161 0.0
4 Thematic 5 60.0% 46.6 80.0% 0.0 0.2827 0.145
4 Trapezoid (Default) 107 32.67% 40.5 75.7% -1.001 -0.8128 0.354
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3838 0.0
5 Other 10 40.0% 26.7 70.0% -0.178 -0.8087 -0.675
6 Other 34 47.06% 38.97 67.65% 0.0 -0.242 -0.494
6 Star 8 25.0% 41.13 75.0% 0.013 0.5587 -0.274
6 Thematic 33 27.27% 51.64 72.73% -0.085 -0.0393 -0.304
6 Two Centers (Default) 28 25.93% 32.79 96.43% 0.121 0.5846 0.631
7 Other 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3606 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 75 31.39 53.33% -1.275 0.4552 -0.415
Aid From Lesser Spirits 67 38.58 68.66% -0.917 0.6587 0.309
All Things Weaken 58 28.45 56.9% -0.202 1.6758 0.013
Attenuated Essence 1 23.0 0.0% -0.567 0.2874 0.0
Back Against the Wall 63 36.02 52.38% -0.474 1.1626 -0.028
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 23.0 50.0% -0.42 1.0283 0.0
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 63.0 100.0% 0.121 1.1292 0.226
Disintegrating Ecosystem 60 28.85 51.67% -0.845 0.9976 0.037
Downward Spiral 95 31.16 62.11% -0.409 1.2892 -0.263
Erosion of Will 67 30.01 53.73% -0.651 1.2488 -0.517
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 32.85 81.48% -0.169 0.3312 1.05
Memory Fades to Dust 95 27.48 56.84% -0.522 1.354 -0.011
Power Corrodes the Spirit 77 29.56 49.35% -1.272 0.4322 -0.817
Promising Farmlands 61 28.44 49.18% -1.422 0.4536 -0.496
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16 40.56 75.0% -0.26 -0.0497 0.452
Thriving Communities 89 25.96 56.18% -1.26 0.611 -0.758
Unnatural Proliferation 88 31.94 57.95% -0.255 1.4992 0.024
Untended Land Crumbles 64 29.89 56.25% -0.186 1.6281 -0.493

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 449 45.33% 31.96 76.61% 0.242 1.0198 0.125
B 493 44.54% 31.25 73.63% -0.308 0.3955 -0.099
C 527 47.78% 32.5 78.75% -0.049 0.4786 0.285
D 466 43.08% 33.05 77.9% 0.313 1.0483 0.806
E 464 51.74% 32.18 73.49% -0.099 0.4847 -0.72
F 397 47.18% 33.46 75.57% -0.015 0.6924 0.032
G 390 47.64% 31.98 75.13% -0.624 0.0181 -0.007
H 354 41.09% 33.04 78.53% 0.199 0.844 -0.781
East 76 50.0% 44.71 72.37% 0.539 1.1307 0.0
Northeast 58 45.61% 45.62 70.69% -0.375 0.3021 -0.288
Northwest 48 39.58% 48.25 72.92% 0.204 0.6413 0.624
Southeast 46 39.13% 49.02 73.91% -0.18 0.4839 -0.05
Southwest 37 35.14% 50.89 72.97% 0.0 1.1714 -0.185
West 62 45.9% 48.11 74.19% 0.179 0.9969 0.245

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 13.74 40.74% -1.841 0.2345 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 40.74% 22.69 77.78% 0.405 0.5762 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 41 11.43% 32.39 92.68% 0.038 -1.0207 0.0
Start of Game Growth 78 22.54% 42.14 88.46% 0.696 0.274 -0.304
Unlimited Undo 147 41.73% 33.68 78.91% 0.016 -0.3991 -0.006
Using Tokens but Not Events 219 39.8% 23.82 80.37% -0.08 0.0358 0.016

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 95 100.0% 35.79 100.0% 0.779 0.5999 0.633
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 26 100.0% 33.15 100.0% 0.073 0.0872 -0.245
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 43 100.0% 32.93 100.0% 0.533 0.2876 -0.789
Downpour Drenches the World 86 100.0% 32.17 100.0% -0.056 0.3311 0.253
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 1 100.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.121 0.3562 0.226
Eyes Watch From the Trees 45 100.0% 34.78 100.0% 0.145 -0.3287 0.18
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 48 100.0% 37.13 100.0% 0.545 0.0981 0.761
Finder of Paths Unseen 49 100.0% 30.84 100.0% -1.031 -0.6673 0.404
Fractured Days Split the Sky 27 100.0% 34.63 100.0% 0.045 0.1492 0.165
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 45 100.0% 48.02 100.0% 0.579 0.5146 0.624
Heart of the Wildfire 32 100.0% 25.47 100.0% -0.842 -0.5827 -0.728
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 111 100.0% 39.59 100.0% -0.417 -1.0002 -0.248
Lightning's Swift Strike 28 414.29% 28.75 185.71% -0.513 -0.2452 -0.461
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 104 42.31% 32.2 82.69% -0.15 -0.9638 -0.353
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 27 44.44% 30.7 85.19% 0.079 -0.4628 -0.29
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 15 13.33% 28.27 86.67% -0.177 -0.6548 0.0
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 82 100.0% 43.01 100.0% -0.133 -0.254 0.008
Many Minds Move as One 21 100.0% 38.38 100.0% 0.447 -0.1763 -0.192
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 70 100.0% 48.27 100.0% 0.414 0.2868 0.805
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 52 100.0% 37.31 100.0% 0.031 -0.0528 0.038
River Surges in Sunlight 27 456.67% 32.89 237.04% 0.248 0.0565 0.163
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 20 40.0% 29.95 85.0% 0.324 0.6116 -0.377
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 159 39.1% 36.84 78.62% -0.38 -0.7427 0.334
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 43 100.0% 36.98 100.0% 0.249 0.0757 0.759
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 42 102.38% 49.83 102.38% -0.281 -0.4813 -0.32
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 2 50.0% 35.0 50.0% -0.453 -0.1587 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 40 100.0% 35.52 100.0% 0.182 0.4113 -0.475
Shroud of Silent Mist 27 100.0% 26.15 100.0% -0.147 0.0372 -0.918
Starlight Seeks its Form 60 100.0% 34.15 100.0% -0.113 -0.2692 -0.236
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 53 100.0% 34.98 100.0% -0.094 -0.3571 0.359
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 44 100.0% 30.45 100.0% 0.453 0.5156 -0.481
Thunderspeaker 48 104.17% 49.19 100.0% -0.11 -0.186 0.834
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 2 0.0% 22.0 100.0% 0.206 0.4115 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 27 100.0% 33.85 100.0% 0.02 -0.2422 -0.133
Vital Strength of the Earth 18 485.0% 19.83 244.44% -0.254 0.4988 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 97 28.42% 30.04 82.47% -1.027 -0.4488 -0.474
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 24 62.5% 31.67 62.5% -0.13 1.0199 0.0
Volcano Looming High 60 100.0% 31.3 100.0% 0.876 0.8718 0.284

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 75.59%
Crops Wither and Fade 87.67%
Favors Called Due 87.82%
Mantle of Dread 87.67%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 169 22.63 7.1%
II 672 31.12 60.27%
III 894 34.7 89.49%
IV 292 37.97 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 778
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 389
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 291
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 13
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 140
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 18
Win: Scenario condition 31
Lose: Blight pool ran out 326
Lose: Spirit destroyed 14

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.09 Win Model: -0.241

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.074 Win Model: 0.069
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1122 54.71% 30.24 71.75%
2 466 50.33% 30.3 76.82%
3 201 44.22% 32.03 80.6%
4 124 33.9% 39.74 76.61%
5 10 50.0% 26.8 70.0%
6 104 33.01% 41.49 77.88%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)