Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 38.46% 23.85 92.31% 0.429 0.227 0.0
Blitz 0 7 33.33% 26.57 100.0% 0.507 0.7647 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 41.67% 79.67 83.33% 0.758 1.1715 0.611
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.33 33.33% -0.876 -0.4299 -0.268
Elemental Invocation 1 1 100.0% 14.0 0.0% -0.497 -0.0112 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 47 10.64% 36.74 89.36% 0.114 0.4191 0.531
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 0.0% 56.0 100.0% 0.387 0.5688 0.533
Rituals of Terror 3 3 66.67% 41.67 33.33% -0.821 -0.6996 0.125
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0% -0.28 0.1352 -0.176
Second Wave 0 15 66.67% 36.53 86.67% 0.342 0.9076 0.0
The Great River 3 1 0.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.023 1.4207 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 9 55.56% 30.56 66.67% -0.831 -0.3048 -0.336
Ward the Shores 2 4 75.0% 34.25 50.0% -0.635 0.5271 0.526

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 539 51.49% 29.38 73.84% -0.426 0.5902 -0.407
1 Thematic 9 66.67% 37.67 66.67% -0.284 0.8884 0.082
2 Archipelago 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.122 1.1055 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 117 45.61% 31.59 85.47% 0.147 0.8989 0.16
2 Coastline 15 20.0% 33.33 93.33% 0.401 1.0038 -0.288
2 Fragment 3 66.67% 19.67 100.0% 0.369 0.8167 0.0
2 Heart 6 83.33% 32.83 83.33% 0.008 0.5467 0.0
2 Opposite Shores 49 42.86% 25.41 87.76% 0.17 1.1619 -0.253
2 Thematic 6 66.67% 53.0 83.33% 0.199 0.8979 0.421
2 Top to Top 3 33.33% 24.0 66.67% 0.132 0.6425 -0.221
3 Archipelago 3 0.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.211 0.3845 0.0
3 Coastline 4 0.0% 22.5 75.0% -0.58 -1.3631 0.0
3 Other 3 0.0% 26.0 66.67% -0.078 -0.1134 -0.316
3 Round (Default) 79 48.1% 29.22 77.22% -0.605 -0.0103 0.714
4 Archipelago 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0% -0.301 -1.0123 0.0
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.018 0.1342 0.0
4 Other 3 0.0% 18.33 100.0% 0.221 -0.0326 0.0
4 Thematic 3 66.67% 34.0 66.67% -0.127 0.4023 0.0
4 Trapezoid (Default) 46 32.61% 44.5 86.96% 0.567 0.5398 0.542
5 Other 4 50.0% 23.75 75.0% -0.064 0.1047 -0.295
6 Other 18 50.0% 35.11 55.56% -0.547 0.2622 -0.595
6 Star 3 33.33% 33.67 100.0% 0.147 0.9309 0.0
6 Thematic 10 30.0% 41.3 70.0% -0.708 -0.9866 -0.012
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 33.33% 33.92 100.0% 0.981 0.8867 0.46
7 Other 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.069 -1.0832 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 41 31.27 68.29% -0.905 0.9978 -0.229
Aid From Lesser Spirits 38 35.53 71.05% -0.638 1.0918 0.384
All Things Weaken 27 25.07 48.15% -1.765 0.2209 -0.636
Back Against the Wall 27 33.3 51.85% -1.015 0.8011 0.032
Disintegrating Ecosystem 29 25.38 48.28% -1.697 0.3537 -0.176
Downward Spiral 39 30.33 66.67% -1.027 0.9657 0.266
Erosion of Will 32 30.31 53.13% -1.517 0.566 -0.64
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 30.5 80.0% -0.219 0.2216 0.0
Memory Fades to Dust 34 24.06 52.94% -1.672 0.4119 -0.229
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23 26.52 43.48% -1.639 0.2995 -0.661
Promising Farmlands 23 23.96 47.83% -1.642 0.404 -0.544
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 35.4 60.0% -0.435 -0.0104 0.177
Thriving Communities 43 27.7 65.12% -1.289 0.6947 -0.134
Unnatural Proliferation 46 30.52 54.35% -1.428 0.537 0.147
Untended Land Crumbles 28 28.46 67.86% -0.892 1.1012 -0.4

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 223 40.91% 30.96 80.72% 0.125 0.9219 0.369
B 220 40.64% 32.45 80.0% 0.013 0.7569 0.185
C 256 45.67% 31.13 78.91% 0.085 0.6538 -0.064
D 207 41.18% 32.18 82.13% 0.166 0.9619 -0.047
E 216 46.98% 30.84 78.24% 0.288 0.935 -0.791
F 167 52.41% 32.17 74.85% -0.088 0.6366 -0.144
G 175 46.82% 32.18 82.86% 0.142 0.8741 0.471
H 168 41.57% 32.72 77.98% 0.231 0.9435 -0.478
East 23 52.17% 41.91 69.57% 0.24 1.0089 0.0
Northeast 18 44.44% 40.94 72.22% -0.1 0.7601 0.0
Northwest 16 37.5% 41.69 75.0% -0.178 0.8986 0.436
Southeast 14 42.86% 43.93 71.43% -0.515 0.1909 0.041
Southwest 12 41.67% 42.83 66.67% -0.28 0.8454 -0.176
West 21 47.62% 43.67 71.43% -0.087 0.8672 0.19

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 23.0 85.71% -0.446 1.6831 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 13 30.0% 22.0 76.92% -0.568 -0.393 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 5.88% 29.91 90.91% -0.267 -0.4088 0.0
Start of Game Growth 32 11.54% 35.66 93.75% 0.676 -0.084 -0.012
Unlimited Undo 67 46.77% 35.48 83.58% 0.282 -0.3221 0.484
Using Tokens but Not Events 77 32.88% 25.27 88.31% 0.148 -0.0087 0.0

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 49 100.0% 33.14 100.0% 0.558 0.4436 0.772
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6 100.0% 31.67 100.0% 0.152 0.2476 0.0
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 15 100.0% 40.4 100.0% 0.911 0.7502 -0.553
Downpour Drenches the World 56 100.0% 29.59 100.0% -0.083 0.1697 -0.123
Eyes Watch From the Trees 13 100.0% 32.92 100.0% 0.575 0.1373 -0.144
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 19 100.0% 38.11 100.0% -0.413 -0.9008 -0.012
Finder of Paths Unseen 27 100.0% 30.07 100.0% 0.123 0.4865 0.423
Fractured Days Split the Sky 13 100.0% 24.69 100.0% -0.489 -0.4331 -0.153
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 15 100.0% 43.67 100.0% 0.219 0.187 0.594
Heart of the Wildfire 13 100.0% 29.77 100.0% -1.04 -0.8654 -0.25
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 44 100.0% 31.55 100.0% -0.123 -0.5796 -0.119
Lightning's Swift Strike 9 588.89% 35.67 177.78% -0.105 0.1698 -0.011
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 62 41.94% 32.76 91.94% 1.002 0.2257 -0.164
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 7 14.29% 27.14 85.71% -0.145 -0.7879 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 3 33.33% 25.67 66.67% -0.35 -0.6161 0.0
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 30 100.0% 39.43 100.0% 0.775 0.5086 0.187
Many Minds Move as One 10 100.0% 36.3 100.0% 0.193 -0.4101 -0.314
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 32 100.0% 48.0 100.0% -0.178 -0.3635 0.805
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 19 100.0% 37.11 100.0% -0.408 -0.3869 0.063
River Surges in Sunlight 13 530.77% 30.92 230.77% 0.289 0.2545 0.098
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 7 28.57% 32.14 100.0% 0.457 0.8878 0.13
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 86 40.7% 34.81 80.23% -0.333 -0.6336 -0.265
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 16 100.0% 34.13 100.0% -0.155 -0.2079 0.036
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8 100.0% 49.13 100.0% 0.136 -0.1511 -0.3
Shifting Memory of Ages 17 100.0% 35.0 100.0% 0.287 0.3624 -0.392
Shroud of Silent Mist 7 100.0% 30.43 100.0% -0.604 -0.3679 -0.301
Starlight Seeks its Form 29 100.0% 33.14 100.0% -0.12 -0.2592 0.685
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 20 100.0% 37.6 100.0% 0.329 0.1472 0.3
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 17 100.0% 29.24 100.0% -0.76 -0.5755 -0.488
Thunderspeaker 14 100.0% 37.21 100.0% -0.095 -0.0309 0.13
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 13 100.0% 35.08 100.0% -0.042 -0.1322 -0.157
Vital Strength of the Earth 6 783.33% 20.0 200.0% -0.501 0.3075 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 59 30.51% 31.63 89.83% 0.321 0.7079 -0.116
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 1 100.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.138 1.3126 0.0
Volcano Looming High 20 100.0% 28.95 100.0% -0.6 -0.6042 -0.138

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 76.38%
Crops Wither and Fade 87.61%
Favors Called Due 87.61%
Mantle of Dread 89.3%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 68 22.56 10.29%
II 297 30.98 64.65%
III 435 34.53 89.89%
IV 141 37.77 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 381
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 186
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 140
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 62
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 131
Lose: Spirit destroyed 9

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.03 Win Model: -0.296

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.163 Win Model: -0.034
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 551 51.64% 29.64 73.68%
2 202 43.72% 30.6 87.13%
3 85 44.71% 28.82 76.47%
4 54 33.33% 41.69 85.19%
5 4 50.0% 23.75 75.0%
6 45 38.64% 36.13 75.56%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)