Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 52 53.85% 24.48 53.85% 0.009 -0.1772 0.0
Blitz 0 45 20.45% 14.44 40.0% -1.632 -1.5008 -0.552
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 32.84% 47.39 52.24% -1.188 -1.4426 0.364
Despicable Theft 2 22 36.36% 30.82 68.18% -0.038 0.5037 -0.21
Elemental Invocation 1 22 45.45% 25.91 45.45% -0.379 0.4775 -0.137
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 197 18.27% 42.35 72.08% -0.191 -0.9625 1.24
Powers Long Forgotten 1 29 51.72% 33.55 68.97% -0.148 0.7865 0.647
Rituals of Terror 3 23 39.13% 46.0 69.57% 0.887 0.9828 -0.157
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 37.5% 13.63 25.0% -0.253 0.9442 -0.126
Second Wave 0 139 46.72% 30.55 77.7% 0.689 0.7746 0.0
The Great River 3 16 37.5% 19.75 37.5% -0.057 1.3047 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 43 62.79% 27.81 58.14% -0.082 0.7061 0.437
Ward the Shores 2 23 52.17% 24.74 43.48% 0.015 1.0474 0.799

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2454 51.41% 24.6 61.04% 0.196 0.3872 -0.054
1 Thematic 112 49.55% 26.56 40.18% -0.57 0.0755 -0.854
2 Archipelago 6 16.67% 32.67 83.33% 0.0 0.4319 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 728 49.78% 26.44 64.7% 0.011 0.0069 0.12
2 Coastline 82 40.74% 24.67 62.2% -0.194 -0.1387 -0.435
2 Fragment 16 50.0% 31.31 87.5% 0.102 -0.1645 0.0
2 Heart 12 66.67% 34.67 75.0% 0.0 -0.0388 -0.05
2 Opposite Shores 154 41.18% 25.09 73.38% 0.199 0.2128 0.02
2 Thematic 44 53.49% 33.43 61.36% 0.287 0.4842 0.498
2 Top to Top 18 38.89% 27.72 72.22% 0.245 0.1471 -0.481
3 Archipelago 7 14.29% 45.14 100.0% 0.478 0.031 0.525
3 Coastline 10 30.0% 30.2 80.0% 0.212 -0.8121 0.0
3 Other 24 16.67% 24.92 83.33% -0.261 -0.6536 -0.136
3 Round (Default) 435 39.26% 30.18 72.87% 0.539 0.2032 0.984
3 Sunrise 13 23.08% 15.46 30.77% -0.551 -0.3082 0.0
3 Thematic 14 63.64% 30.86 71.43% 0.502 0.2179 0.32
4 Archipelago 8 50.0% 33.0 62.5% -0.179 -0.3356 0.39
4 Coastline 2 0.0% 15.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.9386 0.0
4 Leaf 1 100.0% 22.0 100.0% 0.12 -0.0285 0.0
4 Other 12 45.45% 24.17 75.0% -0.753 -2.0825 0.0
4 Thematic 23 43.48% 23.91 47.83% -0.362 -0.4415 0.121
4 Trapezoid (Default) 245 35.74% 31.11 70.61% 0.002 -0.1552 0.558
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.0 0.6745 0.0
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.9121 0.229
5 Other 32 25.0% 22.13 71.88% 0.0 -1.0746 -0.919
6 Archipelago 6 0.0% 47.17 83.33% 0.0 -1.2992 0.211
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.748 0.0
6 Other 48 52.08% 35.92 68.75% 0.381 0.1775 -0.358
6 Star 21 14.29% 25.33 71.43% -0.469 -0.3695 -0.024
6 Thematic 71 23.94% 39.77 59.15% -0.144 0.5049 -1.328
6 Two Centers (Default) 68 23.88% 28.62 80.88% 0.381 0.047 0.643
7 Other 3 0.0% 13.0 33.33% -0.162 0.2343 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 156 28.16 52.56% 0.298 0.4279 -0.234
Aid From Lesser Spirits 118 35.14 60.17% -1.165 -1.2837 0.961
All Things Weaken 108 26.48 49.07% -1.449 -1.1416 0.236
Attenuated Essence 44 25.5 59.09% 0.445 0.4769 -0.932
Back Against the Wall 113 31.64 53.1% -0.331 -0.3007 0.223
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 40 18.43 30.0% -1.204 -1.0182 -0.551
Burn Brightest Before the End 35 29.91 74.29% -0.064 0.0062 0.48
Disintegrating Ecosystem 126 24.28 50.0% -0.606 -0.2304 0.025
Downward Spiral 198 26.43 56.06% -0.258 -0.092 -0.399
Erosion of Will 126 27.23 50.79% 0.448 0.662 -0.622
Intensifying Exploitation 51 24.37 41.18% -0.436 -0.1943 -0.614
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 29.8 82.61% 1.05 0.4688 1.247
Memory Fades to Dust 190 25.14 55.79% -0.015 0.2775 0.396
Power Corrodes the Spirit 121 27.39 47.93% 0.776 0.9371 -0.157
Promising Farmlands 112 26.79 50.0% -0.174 0.1223 0.282
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 29.38 56.25% 0.234 0.3215 -0.612
Slow Dissolution of Will 39 27.72 48.72% 0.693 1.086 -0.074
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 36 29.89 69.44% 0.177 -0.5352 0.455
The Border of Life and Death 16 33.13 75.0% 0.25 -0.2291 0.902
Thriving Communities 141 24.18 54.61% -0.818 -0.5182 -0.052
Thriving Crops 20 20.55 45.0% -0.679 -0.7812 -0.609
Unnatural Proliferation 153 30.84 60.13% -0.215 -0.0457 0.209
Untended Land Crumbles 123 25.95 50.41% -0.26 -0.0018 -0.537

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1103 41.5% 26.52 65.64% -0.247 0.8959 0.194
B 1091 42.7% 27.24 66.91% 0.134 1.1893 0.087
C 1212 42.78% 27.32 67.9% -0.372 0.5165 0.759
D 1079 41.86% 27.52 67.1% 0.398 1.4521 0.403
E 1013 46.1% 27.54 66.44% 0.255 1.1592 -0.419
F 921 43.25% 27.84 67.21% -0.149 0.8548 0.077
G 827 45.29% 27.38 68.44% 0.23 1.1977 0.306
H 816 40.9% 28.18 70.59% 0.047 1.0393 -0.183
East 215 41.9% 33.4 53.95% 0.278 1.2658 -0.369
Northeast 152 37.84% 34.34 56.58% 0.482 1.431 -0.93
Northwest 127 34.68% 33.39 54.33% 0.333 1.374 0.145
Southeast 109 36.7% 35.86 55.96% -0.06 0.8579 0.246
Southwest 99 30.3% 34.9 55.56% -0.435 1.0214 -0.368
West 180 39.77% 31.32 52.22% -0.883 0.2244 0.032

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 100 0.0% 11.44 41.0% -1.026 -0.3629 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 167 37.93% 14.89 52.69% -0.185 0.3088 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 109 8.42% 31.91 84.4% -0.683 -1.3054 0.0
Start of Game Growth 172 18.54% 39.08 85.47% 1.404 0.9915 0.622
Unlimited Undo 435 38.79% 25.43 58.85% -0.779 -0.8737 0.195
Using Tokens but Not Events 493 33.11% 21.92 73.43% 0.166 0.2411 -0.675

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 192 29.03% 30.87 80.21% 0.205 0.1687 0.713
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 64 42.86% 28.41 65.63% -0.116 0.0422 -0.265
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence 5 20.0% 22.4 60.0% 0.36 -0.653 0.0
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 125 32.77% 23.46 63.2% -0.5 -0.7128 -1.056
Downpour Drenches the World 140 36.96% 27.93 73.57% -0.53 -0.2836 0.325
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 81 44.44% 30.11 69.14% -0.227 -0.7896 -0.372
Eyes Watch From the Trees 134 30.47% 27.63 76.87% 1.097 0.6179 -0.398
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 125 29.03% 31.46 70.4% 1.113 0.7064 0.619
Finder of Paths Unseen 97 34.02% 28.78 74.23% 0.101 0.8629 -0.045
Fractured Days Split the Sky 44 41.86% 31.64 68.18% 0.315 0.9775 0.137
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 105 39.05% 32.76 61.9% -0.661 -0.6636 0.297
Heart of the Wildfire 68 40.0% 25.47 55.88% 0.508 0.8782 -0.657
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 204 34.0% 35.05 76.96% -0.546 -0.9721 -0.003
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds — Spreading Hostility 23 13.04% 10.83 39.13% -0.374 -0.8668 -0.401
Lightning's Swift Strike 71 38.81% 25.23 71.83% -0.348 -0.1347 -0.109
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 171 39.05% 29.92 80.7% 1.183 0.5676 -0.399
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 61 42.62% 27.34 78.69% 0.294 0.0081 0.209
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 54 22.22% 26.13 74.07% 0.635 0.5332 0.444
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 163 40.12% 34.17 70.55% 0.408 0.1619 -0.017
Many Minds Move as One 70 39.13% 30.21 61.43% 0.612 0.4505 0.655
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 209 21.95% 37.18 74.16% -0.546 -0.5114 0.798
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 131 45.24% 29.11 67.18% -0.493 -0.6606 0.165
River Surges in Sunlight 67 20.34% 26.97 76.12% 0.074 0.1012 -0.08
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 66 22.73% 21.52 68.18% -0.407 -0.0678 -0.299
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 266 35.88% 35.74 75.94% -0.045 -0.077 0.492
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 121 44.54% 28.02 60.33% 0.393 0.2829 0.394
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 91 35.63% 33.89 61.54% -0.501 -0.5225 0.031
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 58 29.82% 31.31 65.52% -0.597 -0.9293 0.402
Shifting Memory of Ages 93 54.84% 31.22 66.67% 0.308 0.5889 -0.169
Shroud of Silent Mist 66 43.08% 24.82 62.12% -0.828 -0.5549 -0.324
Starlight Seeks its Form 105 46.6% 30.72 67.62% 1.391 1.1714 0.149
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 95 48.42% 29.74 63.16% -0.806 -1.2531 0.086
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 110 41.12% 26.77 68.18% 0.797 0.9189 -0.416
Thunderspeaker 96 46.24% 35.65 66.67% -0.532 -0.513 0.596
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 69 34.78% 28.77 62.32% -0.712 -0.5074 -0.197
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 70 62.86% 26.9 47.14% -0.982 -0.8078 -0.379
Vital Strength of the Earth 49 28.89% 18.55 63.27% 0.746 1.3184 -0.859
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 176 28.65% 25.74 72.16% -0.223 0.1588 -0.241
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 62 45.9% 25.31 59.68% -0.189 0.5683 0.0
Volcano Looming High 101 57.0% 28.49 61.39% 0.116 0.0898 0.487
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium 27 37.04% 19.67 51.85% -0.382 -0.9157 -0.145

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 76.88%
Crops Wither and Fade 88.58%
Favors Called Due 88.43%
Mantle of Dread 88.52%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 889 16.77 2.7%
II 1448 30.59 55.94%
III 1738 34.74 89.93%
IV 597 38.3 98.99%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1534
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 783
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 588
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 728
Lose: Invader deck ran out 9
Lose: Adversary condition 266
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 42
Win: Scenario condition 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 606
Lose: Spirit destroyed 33

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.275 Win Model: -0.163

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.062 Win Model: 0.12
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2583 51.14% 24.73 60.16%
2 1058 48.24% 26.67 66.54%
3 490 36.91% 29.59 72.45%
4 291 37.5% 30.08 68.73%
5 36 33.33% 22.53 75.0%
6 214 27.23% 33.96 69.16%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)