Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 42 64.29% 23.64 47.62% -0.093 -0.1718 0.0
Blitz 0 21 30.0% 26.43 71.43% -0.421 -0.2742 -0.194
Dahan Insurrection 4 45 40.0% 60.2 60.0% -1.245 -1.4518 0.181
Despicable Theft 2 10 40.0% 28.5 60.0% -0.884 -0.2013 -0.135
Elemental Invocation 1 12 66.67% 35.17 50.0% -0.453 0.2789 -0.086
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 126 21.43% 43.67 78.57% 0.411 -0.196 1.098
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 22.22% 40.44 77.78% -1.196 -0.7079 0.671
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 57.55 72.73% 0.343 0.4482 0.281
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 31.5 50.0% 0.0 0.9919 -0.129
Second Wave 0 65 50.0% 30.06 76.92% 0.019 0.0815 0.0
The Great River 3 6 50.0% 19.0 33.33% -0.218 1.1306 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 27 70.37% 30.44 66.67% -0.019 0.5435 -0.449
Ward the Shores 2 17 58.82% 28.35 47.06% -1.371 -0.1619 0.625

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1407 53.58% 27.81 66.45% -0.245 -0.0349 -0.392
1 Thematic 41 62.5% 28.39 56.1% -0.612 -0.0136 -0.429
2 Archipelago 4 0.0% 28.0 75.0% -0.225 0.1321 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 411 49.49% 29.94 71.29% 0.278 0.4383 0.484
2 Coastline 34 27.27% 29.94 85.29% -0.451 -0.3903 -0.326
2 Fragment 6 50.0% 28.33 100.0% 0.0 -0.0635 0.0
2 Heart 9 77.78% 35.78 88.89% 0.707 0.4687 0.0
2 Opposite Shores 91 48.35% 25.96 83.52% -0.647 -0.5131 -0.213
2 Thematic 21 60.0% 39.57 66.67% 0.064 0.7007 0.392
2 Top to Top 13 38.46% 27.08 76.92% 0.561 0.6013 -0.519
3 Archipelago 4 25.0% 53.25 100.0% 0.103 -0.9836 0.309
3 Coastline 6 16.67% 26.67 83.33% 0.0 -0.498 0.0
3 Other 19 10.53% 25.79 94.74% 1.079 1.1885 -0.211
3 Round (Default) 238 45.76% 31.95 78.99% 0.748 0.7063 0.512
3 Thematic 6 66.67% 38.0 66.67% -0.311 -0.275 0.415
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 50.75 50.0% 0.0 -0.2146 0.2
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1222 0.0
4 Other 8 25.0% 27.25 100.0% 0.0 -0.8496 0.0
4 Thematic 10 60.0% 34.2 60.0% -0.52 -0.5372 0.266
4 Trapezoid (Default) 149 30.99% 37.12 75.17% 0.196 0.0091 0.831
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.0
5 Other 17 29.41% 22.71 58.82% 0.361 -0.1469 -0.684
6 Archipelago 2 0.0% 26.5 100.0% 0.288 -0.0168 0.0
6 Other 39 51.28% 36.05 66.67% -0.368 -0.7625 -0.235
6 Star 12 25.0% 33.0 75.0% -0.001 0.4743 -0.337
6 Thematic 40 25.0% 47.15 65.0% -0.695 -0.2962 -0.918
6 Two Centers (Default) 41 22.5% 29.15 85.37% -0.002 0.0412 0.642
7 Other 2 0.0% 19.5 50.0% -0.52 -1.2929 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 92 31.42 52.17% -0.301 -0.03 0.078
Aid From Lesser Spirits 83 38.65 68.67% 0.461 0.4995 0.827
All Things Weaken 73 26.77 54.79% 0.199 0.6596 0.11
Attenuated Essence 18 21.17 38.89% -0.831 -0.6253 -0.909
Back Against the Wall 71 35.34 52.11% -0.193 -0.0314 0.134
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14 13.64 21.43% -0.835 -0.4203 -0.22
Burn Brightest Before the End 15 36.27 93.33% 1.159 1.4638 0.749
Disintegrating Ecosystem 72 26.89 48.61% -0.693 -0.166 0.216
Downward Spiral 106 31.08 64.15% 0.439 0.7921 -0.01
Erosion of Will 75 29.28 52.0% 0.063 0.4711 -0.368
Intensifying Exploitation 16 24.0 31.25% -0.312 0.0751 -0.514
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 34 31.97 82.35% 0.399 -0.1268 1.287
Memory Fades to Dust 110 27.33 55.45% -0.269 0.2123 0.373
Power Corrodes the Spirit 86 28.44 47.67% -0.723 -0.4183 -0.517
Promising Farmlands 72 27.83 50.0% -0.555 0.0311 -0.293
Shattered Fragments of Power 5 19.0 20.0% -1.026 -0.8467 -0.113
Slow Dissolution of Will 12 18.25 33.33% -0.905 -0.371 0.03
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 34.5 72.73% 0.36 -0.3175 0.425
The Border of Life and Death 5 34.8 100.0% 0.9 0.7705 0.0
Thriving Communities 102 25.35 57.84% 0.247 0.7398 -0.466
Thriving Crops 3 22.67 33.33% -0.401 -0.313 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 105 31.46 59.05% 0.072 0.3692 0.151
Untended Land Crumbles 75 29.24 56.0% -0.109 0.2491 -0.426

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 610 42.28% 30.24 72.62% 0.433 1.2729 0.282
B 654 42.77% 29.3 70.49% 0.226 1.0044 0.081
C 693 46.55% 30.9 75.32% 0.358 1.012 0.505
D 599 42.49% 30.96 73.96% -0.141 0.6578 0.676
E 607 48.91% 30.4 71.66% 0.329 0.9582 -0.485
F 528 45.0% 31.77 73.48% -0.09 0.6297 -0.124
G 494 45.96% 30.5 72.87% 0.407 1.1488 -0.06
H 463 40.18% 30.91 75.81% 0.585 1.2332 -0.619
East 96 44.68% 40.18 64.58% -0.314 0.2905 0.0
Northeast 76 41.33% 40.62 63.16% -0.531 0.3497 -0.177
Northwest 67 40.3% 40.93 61.19% 0.072 0.7453 -0.058
Southeast 54 35.19% 45.13 66.67% -0.145 0.4909 0.108
Southwest 46 32.61% 45.74 65.22% 0.0 1.1645 -0.129
West 87 45.35% 39.91 60.92% -1.156 -0.1922 -0.018

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 41 0.0% 12.17 39.02% -0.8 0.0832 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 52 31.43% 18.31 61.54% -1.221 -0.8893 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 64 10.53% 31.91 90.63% 0.391 -0.1442 0.0
Start of Game Growth 105 19.79% 39.27 87.62% 0.7 0.3695 -0.154
Unlimited Undo 243 44.1% 27.6 62.96% -0.695 -0.7165 0.127
Using Tokens but Not Events 287 37.64% 22.7 77.35% 0.249 0.1953 -0.04

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 112 100.0% 34.13 100.0% 0.382 0.2226 0.405
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 35 100.0% 29.51 100.0% -0.256 -0.134 -0.115
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 66 100.0% 26.73 100.0% -0.984 -1.1519 -0.952
Downpour Drenches the World 106 100.0% 30.87 100.0% 0.686 0.8647 0.392
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 34 100.0% 33.15 100.0% 0.739 0.0173 -0.324
Eyes Watch From the Trees 64 100.0% 31.78 100.0% 0.173 -0.4157 -0.155
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 63 100.0% 35.3 100.0% 0.09 -0.3814 0.979
Finder of Paths Unseen 58 100.0% 29.43 100.0% -0.362 0.3322 0.447
Fractured Days Split the Sky 29 100.0% 34.86 100.0% 0.382 1.0663 0.14
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 62 100.0% 41.52 100.0% 0.49 0.3892 0.654
Heart of the Wildfire 47 100.0% 26.47 100.0% -0.225 0.0195 -0.702
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 137 100.0% 36.31 100.0% 0.223 -0.2268 -0.302
Lightning's Swift Strike 38 382.05% 27.21 184.21% 0.298 0.5015 -0.605
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 117 41.38% 31.9 82.91% 0.294 -0.4025 -0.521
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 35 40.0% 29.31 82.86% 0.035 -0.2047 -0.125
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 27 22.22% 29.11 77.78% -0.112 -0.2714 0.457
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 97 100.0% 40.49 100.0% -0.127 -0.2721 0.289
Many Minds Move as One 31 100.0% 34.39 100.0% 0.008 -0.2126 0.17
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 96 100.0% 46.18 100.0% 0.554 0.5445 0.852
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 81 100.0% 31.88 100.0% -0.312 -0.4538 -0.24
River Surges in Sunlight 35 433.33% 31.43 231.43% 0.021 0.0232 0.215
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 25 32.0% 29.2 84.0% 0.376 0.6463 -0.551
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 186 37.91% 36.68 77.42% -0.198 -0.3273 0.186
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 63 100.0% 32.32 100.0% -0.323 -0.5371 0.922
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 53 118.87% 45.66 109.43% 0.437 0.3089 -0.065
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 18 44.44% 34.22 72.22% 0.406 0.0435 0.349
Shifting Memory of Ages 55 100.0% 34.56 100.0% 0.309 0.7163 -0.307
Shroud of Silent Mist 37 100.0% 26.27 100.0% -0.542 -0.227 -0.969
Starlight Seeks its Form 75 100.0% 31.76 100.0% -0.517 -0.7899 -0.028
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 66 100.0% 33.21 100.0% -0.805 -1.3004 0.321
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 72 100.0% 29.17 100.0% 0.389 0.4198 -0.163
Thunderspeaker 54 129.63% 46.5 118.52% 0.419 0.3995 0.708
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 25 36.0% 25.04 60.0% 0.132 0.0692 -0.177
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 36 100.0% 29.81 100.0% -1.136 -1.0744 -0.424
Vital Strength of the Earth 31 355.56% 15.97 222.58% -1.092 -0.5393 -0.194
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 116 28.57% 28.06 78.45% -0.368 -0.1116 -0.659
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 32 61.29% 29.75 59.38% -0.376 0.5205 0.0
Volcano Looming High 69 100.0% 30.55 100.0% 0.898 0.908 0.212

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 75.98%
Crops Wither and Fade 87.99%
Favors Called Due 88.25%
Mantle of Dread 88.06%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 337 21.03 3.86%
II 852 31.04 59.86%
III 1082 34.74 89.74%
IV 365 38.02 98.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 947
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 491
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 361
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 174
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 172
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 25
Win: Scenario condition 35
Lose: Blight pool ran out 383
Lose: Spirit destroyed 19

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.158 Win Model: -0.223

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.224 Win Model: 0.04
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1455 53.71% 27.9 66.19%
2 589 48.25% 29.61 74.7%
3 267 42.64% 31.79 80.15%
4 173 33.13% 36.42 74.57%
5 19 47.37% 24.63 68.42%
6 133 29.55% 36.8 72.18%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)