Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 35 71.43% 22.77 42.86% -1.5 -1.0045 0.0
Blitz 0 16 26.67% 31.31 81.25% -0.515 -0.0723 0.0
Dahan Insurrection 4 29 37.93% 75.48 79.31% -0.027 0.0699 0.587
Despicable Theft 2 7 42.86% 35.14 71.43% 0.327 0.826 -0.232
Elemental Invocation 1 7 71.43% 45.43 57.14% 0.059 0.6053 0.113
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 92 19.57% 42.03 81.52% -0.32 -0.089 0.9
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 0.0% 49.83 100.0% 0.109 0.5164 0.533
Rituals of Terror 3 6 50.0% 64.83 66.67% 0.6 0.3644 0.136
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 31.5 50.0% 0.139 0.3652 -0.204
Second Wave 0 34 52.94% 31.29 79.41% -0.053 0.6396 0.0
The Great River 3 5 60.0% 22.8 40.0% -0.691 0.8907 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 21 71.43% 31.29 66.67% 0.251 1.0376 -0.401
Ward the Shores 2 13 76.92% 35.62 61.54% 0.129 1.0097 0.438

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 967 53.8% 30.17 72.08% -0.458 0.2047 -0.389
1 Thematic 23 63.64% 33.52 60.87% -0.08 0.9768 0.026
2 Archipelago 3 0.0% 37.33 100.0% 0.091 0.5617 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 260 54.33% 30.88 72.31% -0.495 0.0226 0.391
2 Coastline 27 22.22% 33.07 96.3% 0.578 0.7788 -0.259
2 Fragment 5 60.0% 28.4 100.0% 0.285 0.5832 0.0
2 Heart 6 83.33% 32.83 83.33% 0.0 0.4606 0.0
2 Opposite Shores 78 50.0% 26.88 85.9% 0.436 0.9752 -0.22
2 Thematic 13 58.33% 43.77 69.23% -0.235 0.547 0.45
2 Top to Top 8 25.0% 30.75 87.5% 0.073 0.2008 -0.371
3 Archipelago 3 0.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.115 -0.103 0.0
3 Coastline 6 16.67% 26.67 83.33% 0.0 -0.5071 0.0
3 Other 12 0.0% 25.83 91.67% 0.166 -0.4976 -0.295
3 Round (Default) 149 47.62% 31.26 78.52% -0.053 0.2511 0.612
3 Thematic 2 100.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 0.208 0.0
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 50.75 50.0% -0.145 -0.182 0.234
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0373 0.0
4 Other 7 14.29% 21.57 100.0% 0.243 -0.4707 0.0
4 Thematic 5 60.0% 46.6 80.0% 0.148 0.2521 0.135
4 Trapezoid (Default) 90 33.33% 43.42 80.0% -0.432 -0.3544 0.264
5 Archipelago 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Other 8 37.5% 26.25 62.5% -0.468 -0.9846 -0.697
6 Other 30 50.0% 39.27 63.33% 0.152 0.1971 -0.369
6 Star 8 25.0% 41.13 75.0% -0.012 0.758 -0.15
6 Thematic 25 32.0% 49.04 72.0% -0.473 -0.2322 -0.12
6 Two Centers (Default) 24 30.43% 33.83 95.83% 0.316 0.5076 0.746
7 Other 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 72 31.86 55.56% -1.439 0.5318 -0.207
Aid From Lesser Spirits 62 36.81 67.74% -1.617 0.1608 0.23
All Things Weaken 50 27.48 52.0% -0.49 1.5585 -0.224
Back Against the Wall 55 34.89 50.91% -0.972 0.9667 0.109
Disintegrating Ecosystem 56 28.5 51.79% -1.057 1.0713 -0.087
Downward Spiral 81 31.3 62.96% -0.446 1.5156 -0.183
Erosion of Will 56 30.41 51.79% -0.721 1.361 -0.563
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 24 33.25 83.33% -0.001 0.5006 0.783
Memory Fades to Dust 83 27.23 54.22% -0.943 1.198 0.095
Power Corrodes the Spirit 59 31.08 50.85% -1.054 0.9271 -0.377
Promising Farmlands 48 28.31 47.92% -1.075 0.9467 -0.544
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13 38.54 69.23% -0.132 0.365 0.45
Thriving Communities 77 25.66 57.14% -1.561 0.4986 -0.679
Unnatural Proliferation 82 32.48 58.54% -0.04 1.917 0.112
Untended Land Crumbles 57 29.26 52.63% -1.437 0.596 -0.424

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 399 44.13% 32.45 77.94% 0.135 0.8712 0.047
B 428 44.08% 31.68 74.53% -0.158 0.539 -0.112
C 468 47.72% 32.43 77.56% 0.094 0.564 0.225
D 420 44.42% 33.34 77.38% 0.085 0.794 0.754
E 406 51.86% 32.66 73.15% 0.047 0.5919 -0.701
F 328 48.15% 34.6 76.83% 0.441 1.103 -0.002
G 332 48.48% 32.58 75.9% -0.415 0.2155 0.15
H 296 41.64% 33.04 79.39% 0.44 1.1049 -0.865
East 58 50.0% 43.72 70.69% 0.465 1.1271 0.0
Northeast 41 45.0% 44.27 68.29% -0.22 0.4397 0.0
Northwest 38 42.11% 45.92 71.05% -0.137 0.4736 0.371
Southeast 38 44.74% 46.76 73.68% -0.788 -0.2571 0.127
Southwest 29 41.38% 48.45 72.41% 0.0 0.9684 -0.204
West 49 45.83% 45.61 71.43% 0.04 0.8453 0.197

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 15.6 50.0% -2.08 0.1485 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 40.74% 22.69 77.78% 0.191 0.4177 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 36 10.0% 32.31 94.44% 1.097 0.117 0.0
Start of Game Growth 64 22.81% 40.63 89.06% 0.166 -0.2907 -0.12
Unlimited Undo 121 43.86% 33.68 77.69% -0.46 -1.012 -0.413
Using Tokens but Not Events 173 39.51% 24.22 82.08% -0.069 0.0865 0.247

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 78 100.0% 36.28 100.0% 0.765 0.6894 0.633
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 16 100.0% 32.0 100.0% -1.111 -1.0325 -0.472
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 37 100.0% 33.95 100.0% 0.222 -0.003 -0.684
Downpour Drenches the World 77 100.0% 31.68 100.0% -0.478 -0.2131 0.603
Eyes Watch From the Trees 35 100.0% 36.91 100.0% 0.242 -0.2609 0.216
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 39 100.0% 35.49 100.0% 0.285 -0.3015 0.367
Finder of Paths Unseen 45 100.0% 31.64 100.0% -0.585 -0.2288 0.406
Fractured Days Split the Sky 20 100.0% 31.75 100.0% -0.117 -0.0347 -0.054
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 34 100.0% 46.09 100.0% 0.097 0.0023 0.566
Heart of the Wildfire 29 100.0% 26.21 100.0% -0.331 0.0741 -0.632
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 91 100.0% 38.99 100.0% 0.071 -0.5322 -0.218
Lightning's Swift Strike 23 413.04% 29.09 173.91% 0.18 0.5451 -0.234
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 92 43.48% 33.54 85.87% 0.045 -0.7043 -0.365
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 22 45.45% 33.0 86.36% 0.798 0.2344 -0.198
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 10 20.0% 30.2 90.0% 0.388 -0.106 0.0
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 69 100.0% 41.96 100.0% 0.341 0.1893 0.063
Many Minds Move as One 18 100.0% 38.39 100.0% 0.079 -0.5072 -0.236
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 63 100.0% 50.95 100.0% 0.128 -0.0422 0.892
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 46 100.0% 38.22 100.0% 0.943 0.8867 0.279
River Surges in Sunlight 25 450.0% 32.48 220.0% 0.29 0.2162 0.143
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 13 46.15% 31.77 84.62% 0.385 0.8118 -0.204
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 143 40.85% 38.08 80.42% -0.13 -0.4709 0.21
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 35 100.0% 36.31 100.0% 0.839 0.6451 0.58
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 31 100.0% 46.61 100.0% -0.39 -0.5813 -0.379
Shifting Memory of Ages 34 100.0% 36.0 100.0% -0.428 -0.2135 -0.375
Shroud of Silent Mist 21 100.0% 26.57 100.0% -0.326 -0.1919 -0.893
Starlight Seeks its Form 54 100.0% 34.09 100.0% -0.354 -0.4693 -0.148
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 49 100.0% 35.82 100.0% -0.568 -0.8071 0.4
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 39 100.0% 29.51 100.0% -0.55 -0.4201 -0.621
Thunderspeaker 34 100.0% 49.24 100.0% 0.419 0.4015 0.817
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 22 100.0% 35.09 100.0% 0.337 0.1214 -0.287
Vital Strength of the Earth 16 500.0% 19.81 237.5% -0.045 0.8529 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 89 30.68% 30.13 84.27% -0.493 -0.07 -0.462
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 20 65.0% 32.75 60.0% -0.07 1.0443 0.0
Volcano Looming High 55 100.0% 30.44 100.0% -0.952 -0.9731 0.358

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Concealing Shadows 75.45%
Crops Wither and Fade 87.44%
Favors Called Due 87.84%
Mantle of Dread 88.01%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 140 22.65 7.14%
II 597 31.08 60.13%
III 773 34.66 89.78%
IV 256 37.91 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 673
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 343
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 255
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 126
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 16
Win: Scenario condition 31
Lose: Blight pool ran out 286
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.178 Win Model: -0.226

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.164 Win Model: -0.047
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 996 53.79% 30.36 71.89%
2 401 51.02% 30.56 77.56%
3 168 43.37% 31.55 80.36%
4 105 33.33% 41.45 80.0%
5 8 50.0% 26.38 62.5%
6 88 36.78% 40.73 76.14%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)