Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 56 17.86% 26.82 82.14% 0.037 0.5327 0.321
Blitz 0 3029 26.53% 34.41 81.31% 1.256 1.699 0.058
Dahan Insurrection 4 2644 23.38% 61.03 78.1% -0.279 -0.1815 0.65
Despicable Theft 2 140 35.0% 37.14 74.29% -0.699 -0.2005 0.116
Elemental Invocation 1 417 49.04% 31.06 62.35% 0.373 0.9192 -1.349
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10145 11.37% 45.02 77.06% -0.826 -0.5946 0.33
Powers Long Forgotten 1 896 42.84% 37.61 70.98% 0.211 0.6187 -0.896
Rituals of Terror 3 1372 34.81% 48.07 78.5% 1.61 1.374 1.032
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 484 58.42% 38.19 73.14% -0.022 0.2041 0.06
Second Wave 0 6986 33.76% 30.47 80.8% -0.159 0.5336 0.015
The Great River 3 263 40.61% 35.33 71.86% -0.732 0.8497 -1.121
Varied Terrains 2 140 35.71% 32.67 76.43% -0.312 0.4744 -0.85
Ward the Shores 2 1104 33.43% 36.22 68.93% -1.381 -0.5005 -0.51

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4708 32.72 56.69% -1.803 0.168 -0.568
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4658 33.86 60.22% -1.634 0.1442 -0.485
All Things Weaken 1926 33.78 55.14% -1.572 0.4763 -0.604
Back Against the Wall 4538 33.2 54.83% -1.763 0.1756 -0.624
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4559 29.95 52.67% -2.124 0.0038 -0.758
Downward Spiral 13389 25.76 56.08% -2.456 -0.4953 -0.61
Erosion of Will 4674 30.89 52.78% -1.818 0.2635 -0.738
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 979 37.74 77.32% -0.348 0.1533 -0.023
Memory Fades to Dust 13235 25.52 53.09% -2.371 -0.2302 -0.723
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1798 31.77 54.39% -2.17 -0.1895 -0.664
Promising Farmlands 4602 29.91 53.32% -2.161 -0.1393 -0.929
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 649 37.58 81.82% -0.422 0.0748 -0.006
Thriving Communities 1923 31.4 52.83% -2.118 -0.059 -0.825
Tipping Point 2082 30.19 53.65% 0.0 0.0 -0.737
Unnatural Proliferation 1992 33.29 55.52% -1.952 0.0049 -0.612
Untended Land Crumbles 1974 31.36 52.68% -2.173 -0.1396 -0.603

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 81089 31.89% 32.58 80.74% 0.108 0.8441 -0.005
B 84729 32.01% 32.8 80.61% 0.029 0.7257 -0.098
C 82590 32.67% 32.66 80.32% 0.064 0.534 -0.079
D 77671 32.72% 32.32 80.32% -0.009 0.7001 -0.06
E 20089 35.06% 35.61 79.54% 0.066 0.6104 -0.175
F 29721 33.48% 34.9 80.36% -0.285 0.377 -0.033
G 27147 32.91% 34.62 80.53% 0.103 0.7339 -0.154
H 27162 32.95% 34.57 80.65% -0.166 0.4988 -0.112
East 13481 32.48% 46.6 73.67% 0.039 0.7004 -0.613
Northeast 9716 30.35% 49.25 74.9% -0.033 0.6268 -0.018
Northwest 8310 30.53% 49.67 73.98% 0.183 0.793 0.338
Southeast 2419 29.22% 44.17 78.21% -0.119 0.4123 -0.657
Southwest 2245 29.67% 43.17 78.49% -0.602 0.3662 -1.334
West 12296 33.38% 46.67 72.61% -0.208 0.5975 -1.217

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 14164 0.0% 20.46 74.77% -2.279 -0.0501 0.466
Not Using Events or Tokens 60721 29.33% 26.01 80.11% 0.086 0.3127 -0.469
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9012 8.68% 40.57 92.29% 0.505 -0.4756 0.403
Start of Game Growth 12650 10.97% 40.31 90.63% 0.482 0.0249 0.108
Unlimited Undo 22931 23.62% 34.85 86.45% 0.542 -0.0095 0.614
Using Tokens but Not Events 23159 22.6% 32.82 84.38% 0.152 0.3073 -0.082

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.64%
Gift of Proliferation 78.51%
Overgrow in a Night 81.68%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28066 22.65 26.64%
II 87820 31.08 79.96%
III 78078 34.66 89.48%
IV 25414 37.91 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7471
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 68429
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 67484
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25118
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3976
Lose: Adversary condition 15020
Win: Sacrifice victory 463
Lose: Scenario condition 2950
Win: Scenario condition 3885
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23660
Lose: Spirit destroyed 922

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.375 Win Model: 0.208
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 73008 30.61% 28.67 75.86%
2 78812 37.59% 32.11 79.06%
3 32827 33.28% 34.78 81.13%
4 32375 27.42% 39.9 82.05%
5 397 28.49% 35.56 84.63%
6 1959 23.09% 42.11 83.0%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)