Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2678 27.99% 33.85 0.289 80.55% -0.041 0.5319
Dahan Insurrection 4 2564 27.52% 59.62 11.207 76.29% -0.132 0.2686
Elemental Invocation 1 52 34.62% 30.62 -1.727 73.08% -0.766 -0.3005
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10118 11.91% 43.19 3.335 75.32% -0.698 -0.3231
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1035 41.51% 38.61 1.94 74.3% -0.367 0.0804
Rituals of Terror 3 1279 37.22% 41.28 5.277 77.01% -0.181 0.4414
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 594 62.71% 37.77 3.335 71.89% -0.183 0.4412
Second Wave 0 6715 36.15% 30.59 -0.463 79.82% -0.421 -0.0019
The Great River 3 79 43.04% 33.58 1.365 75.95% -0.909 0.5755
Ward the Shores 2 1263 35.18% 37.24 1.399 67.14% -0.951 0.0797

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 46022 30.34% 28.06 -0.991 76.2% -2.028 -1.6733
1 Thematic 3324 37.86% 35.65 0.957 67.24% -1.9 -1.403
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 35347 38.89% 32.03 0.114 78.75% -0.815 -0.6259
2 Coastline 4953 32.38% 31.08 -0.346 83.0% -0.738 -0.6028
2 Fragment 1028 37.33% 27.58 -1.523 76.95% -1.165 -0.7397
2 Heart 1200 16.13% 26.28 -1.087 90.33% -0.567 -0.2762
2 Opposite Shores 6453 36.78% 31.89 -0.37 77.65% -0.906 -0.6798
2 Thematic 2883 44.72% 38.05 1.172 66.98% -0.85 -0.8055
2 Top to Top 995 34.52% 32.34 0.169 80.6% -0.793 -0.6765
3 Coastline 106 33.0% 35.43 0.444 80.19% -0.225 -0.2626
3 Other 867 38.94% 31.29 -1.016 76.59% -0.459 -0.0569
3 Round (Default) 20631 32.63% 34.07 0.126 81.14% 0.026 0.0572
3 Sunrise 73 30.43% 34.01 0.198 89.04% 0.473 0.2202
3 Thematic 813 41.85% 40.06 1.363 69.74% -0.035 -0.3741
4 Coastline 73 18.06% 35.92 -0.682 73.97% 0.265 0.3873
4 Leaf 111 40.0% 37.06 0.142 76.58% 0.675 0.7552
4 Other 748 33.83% 40.17 1.257 81.55% 0.648 0.7288
4 Reverse Snake 7 33.33% 33.57 -0.142 100.0% 0.695 -0.0976
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 2.334 100.0% 0.974 1.1
4 Thematic 4306 26.4% 53.13 4.635 74.62% 1.091 0.0126
4 Trapezoid (Default) 17398 27.89% 36.24 0.308 82.96% 0.831 0.7983
5 Other 203 33.33% 42.31 2.414 93.6% 2.087 1.8704
5 Thematic 45 28.89% 65.53 10.508 95.56% 2.789 0.0219

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3315 32.6 -1.841 56.11% -1.84 0.228
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3339 33.59 -1.251 60.02% -1.723 0.1936
All Things Weaken 858 32.34 -1.947 53.61% -1.883 0.2765
Back Against the Wall 3218 32.78 -1.873 54.32% -1.983 0.1095
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3286 29.56 -3.35 52.43% -2.019 0.202
Downward Spiral 9540 25.79 -3.617 56.94% -2.043 -0.0283
Erosion of Will 3339 30.79 -2.621 52.38% -2.053 0.1584
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 430 37.03 0.369 73.02% -0.931 -0.2193
Memory Fades to Dust 9331 25.65 -3.683 53.36% -2.206 0.0097
Power Corrodes the Spirit 851 31.3 -2.339 54.29% -1.905 0.1144
Promising Farmlands 3362 29.73 -3.134 53.3% -2.015 0.1999
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 287 37.65 0.656 79.79% -0.628 -0.2109
Thriving Communities 901 30.49 -2.678 51.5% -2.027 0.0804
Tipping Point 2081 30.19 -2.93 53.63% -1.987 0.229
Unnatural Proliferation 898 32.28 -1.809 54.79% -1.955 0.1255
Untended Land Crumbles 901 31.1 -2.582 52.16% -2.003 0.0919

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 27372 31.81% 31.07 -0.273 79.7% 0.261 -0.8121
B 28718 31.07% 31.21 -0.294 79.8% 0.249 -0.9153
C 28143 34.3% 30.83 -0.416 78.46% 0.228 -1.1691
D 26443 34.18% 30.64 -0.497 78.19% 0.205 -0.9536
E 3620 36.28% 34.72 0.426 77.35% 0.254 -1.0032
F 7779 33.82% 34.35 0.453 78.98% 0.331 -0.8945
G 7268 32.75% 33.37 0.064 79.16% 0.241 -0.9715
H 7062 34.14% 33.04 0.061 79.34% 0.313 -0.909
East 2518 40.57% 39.26 1.349 66.16% -0.48 -1.4162
Northeast 3569 30.13% 48.99 4.124 75.74% -0.168 -1.0378
Northwest 1967 31.17% 47.01 4.002 70.67% -0.039 -0.9841
Southeast 469 31.34% 40.95 1.116 78.04% -0.15 -1.133
Southwest 306 35.62% 35.19 -0.857 71.24% -0.506 -1.1307
West 2359 42.56% 38.45 0.738 63.63% -0.665 -1.3303

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9364 0.0% 20.35 -4.584 73.55% -1.943 0.0959
Not Using Events or Tokens 40363 30.08% 25.68 -2.415 79.86% -0.11 0.1105
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6051 8.9% 39.03 2.44 92.13% 0.639 -0.0668
Start of Game Growth 8585 10.77% 39.31 2.418 90.82% 0.511 0.0523
Unlimited Undo 15398 24.0% 34.21 0.768 85.56% 0.337 -0.0652
Using Tokens but Not Events 15981 23.34% 32.03 -0.513 83.58% 0.032 -0.0141

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5204 43.95% 30.96 -1.278 75.61% -0.415 -0.1786
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3478 31.55% 34.06 -0.239 80.97% -0.089 -0.1752
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3380 27.23% 35.24 0.27 83.67% -0.006 -0.3747
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3108 29.8% 33.78 -0.621 78.06% -0.306 -0.5393
Fractured Days Split the Sky 907 29.14% 44.92 3.847 84.23% 0.354 0.6873
Heart of the Wildfire 10618 49.85% 38.7 1.538 78.24% 0.31 0.6572
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16767 29.48% 37.83 1.195 82.02% 0.095 -0.2024
Lightning's Swift Strike 17847 31.83% 32.34 -0.504 79.95% -0.221 0.0473
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1248 32.88% 37.26 0.989 85.5% 0.427 0.0664
Many Minds Move as One 938 31.04% 35.79 0.506 83.8% 0.129 -0.3845
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 16958 31.04% 40.36 2.346 81.41% 0.304 0.107
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3894 28.38% 37.0 0.949 82.85% 0.124 0.1716
River Surges in Sunlight 16178 28.9% 37.25 1.112 80.88% -0.191 -0.0244
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 17811 32.13% 37.81 1.245 79.51% 0.056 0.2049
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5976 43.04% 29.67 -1.379 77.83% -0.309 0.1404
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8095 27.76% 36.2 0.485 82.92% -0.059 -0.1236
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3501 36.95% 36.32 0.136 75.81% -0.256 -0.2754
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2615 28.71% 37.28 0.896 83.98% 0.118 0.3328
Thunderspeaker 12199 32.42% 32.22 -0.454 78.6% -0.367 -0.3067
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1660 50.64% 33.79 -0.794 75.3% -0.105 -0.0687
Vital Strength of the Earth 13129 22.57% 32.14 -0.7 80.78% -0.409 0.4551
Volcano Looming High 534 45.78% 33.84 -0.372 78.84% 0.144 0.0433

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.56%
Gift of Proliferation 78.28%
Overgrow in a Night 81.85%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.68%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19271 22.34 25.9%
II 59312 30.71 79.81%
III 52095 34.23 89.25%
IV 16915 37.48 99.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3225
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 30172
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29974
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11000
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2701
Lose: Adversary condition 10203
Win: Sacrifice victory 299
Lose: Scenario condition 2192
Win: Scenario condition 2801
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16253
Lose: Spirit destroyed 610

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.74 Win Model: -0.184

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.498 Win Model: -0.601
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 49402 30.89% 28.58 75.6%
2 53041 37.72% 32.07 78.67%
3 22446 33.2% 34.24 80.62%
4 22704 27.77% 39.6 81.31%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)