Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 40 17.5% 25.77 80.0% -0.714 -0.6055 0.0
Blitz 0 2884 26.95% 33.94 80.72% -0.343 -0.0758 -0.068
Dahan Insurrection 4 2564 23.57% 60.94 77.93% -0.932 -0.599 0.676
Despicable Theft 2 133 35.34% 36.95 74.44% 0.922 1.1723 0.035
Elemental Invocation 1 399 49.37% 30.72 61.65% -1.047 -0.3989 -1.323
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9831 11.55% 44.99 77.06% -0.748 -0.5825 0.35
Powers Long Forgotten 1 876 43.14% 37.52 70.66% 0.057 0.3832 -0.883
Rituals of Terror 3 1322 34.92% 47.4 78.29% 0.339 0.2291 1.015
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 471 58.76% 38.19 72.82% -0.155 0.5015 0.094
Second Wave 0 6728 33.99% 30.33 80.65% -0.551 -0.0797 -0.003
The Great River 3 250 40.73% 34.88 71.6% -0.002 1.4985 -1.248
Varied Terrains 2 106 38.68% 30.84 76.42% -0.736 -0.2006 -0.622
Ward the Shores 2 1058 33.01% 36.39 69.75% -0.23 0.9575 -0.539

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 66009 30.23% 28.2 76.38% -0.154 0.2937 -0.124
1 Thematic 4478 36.88% 35.01 68.36% 0.511 1.1139 -0.335
2 Archipelago 37 21.62% 32.3 86.49% 0.18 0.8462 0.654
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 50800 38.76% 32.07 79.14% -0.048 0.3435 0.334
2 Coastline 7439 32.21% 31.01 82.74% 0.004 0.0919 0.268
2 Fragment 1482 40.75% 28.18 77.19% 0.19 0.2563 0.763
2 Heart 1398 19.7% 26.45 88.84% 0.541 0.8128 0.082
2 Opposite Shores 9682 36.42% 31.55 78.12% -0.078 0.4149 -0.53
2 Thematic 3790 43.79% 38.01 67.94% -0.38 0.0879 0.03
2 Top to Top 1484 35.78% 32.28 79.85% -0.124 0.1579 0.245
3 Archipelago 50 30.0% 34.8 90.0% 0.726 0.3432 0.073
3 Coastline 193 38.46% 34.76 79.27% 1.052 0.4125 0.256
3 Other 1307 35.5% 31.91 79.88% 0.254 -0.8352 0.312
3 Round (Default) 28966 32.92% 34.22 81.37% -0.005 0.2638 0.127
3 Sunrise 111 33.33% 32.95 90.09% 0.055 -0.1644 1.14
3 Thematic 1135 40.3% 42.82 71.19% -0.268 -0.4912 -0.093
4 Archipelago 65 37.7% 35.06 81.54% 0.236 -0.6155 -0.56
4 Coastline 145 21.83% 34.94 75.86% -0.076 -0.068 0.247
4 Leaf 149 38.36% 36.21 75.84% 0.031 0.2718 -0.459
4 Other 1070 34.42% 38.7 82.99% 0.687 0.2415 0.519
4 Reverse Snake 8 28.57% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 5802 25.31% 55.53 77.39% 0.267 0.3635 0.194
4 Trapezoid (Default) 24211 27.77% 36.57 83.07% 0.27 0.1326 -0.039
5 Archipelago 22 59.09% 38.18 77.27% 0.032 -0.3846 -0.659
5 Coastline 12 0.0% 31.58 100.0% 0.356 -0.1565 0.374
5 Other 611 31.1% 39.76 89.69% -0.399 -0.1296 0.593
5 Thematic 150 29.33% 55.41 82.67% -0.201 -0.3075 0.549
6 Archipelago 47 28.21% 35.66 89.36% 0.17 -0.3449 -1.418
6 Coastline 28 28.57% 29.96 96.43% -0.358 -0.7977 -0.514
6 Other 236 24.89% 40.53 75.42% -1.478 -0.5894 -1.357
6 Star 126 32.8% 37.6 65.08% -0.889 0.0055 -1.119
6 Thematic 529 21.82% 43.12 80.72% -0.766 -0.4034 -0.499
6 Two Centers (Default) 648 20.45% 41.85 87.96% -0.678 -0.3002 -0.642
7 Archipelago 13 38.46% 67.15 84.62% 0.483 -0.3569 -0.57
7 Other 6 0.0% 45.33 100.0% 0.667 -0.2688 0.22

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4594 32.68 56.7% -1.718 0.1129 -0.563
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4541 33.79 60.23% -1.417 0.2371 -0.472
All Things Weaken 1823 33.45 54.64% -1.861 0.1159 -0.619
Back Against the Wall 4419 33.06 54.7% -2.042 -0.1836 -0.652
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4436 29.87 52.66% -1.451 0.5237 -0.761
Downward Spiral 13021 25.78 56.25% -2.339 -0.4367 -0.584
Erosion of Will 4545 30.83 52.59% -2.079 -0.035 -0.721
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 933 37.64 77.17% -0.6 -0.028 -0.042
Memory Fades to Dust 12907 25.51 53.09% -2.315 -0.3356 -0.689
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1710 31.73 54.56% -2.226 -0.3337 -0.629
Promising Farmlands 4488 29.88 53.36% -1.724 0.315 -0.926
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 618 37.52 81.55% -0.939 -0.4984 -0.006
Thriving Communities 1820 31.24 52.69% -1.916 0.0486 -0.838
Tipping Point 2082 30.19 53.65% 0.0 0.489 -0.729
Unnatural Proliferation 1882 33.29 55.63% -1.805 0.1013 -0.579
Untended Land Crumbles 1860 31.38 52.85% -2.02 0.0148 -0.548

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 78544 32.04% 32.51 80.65% 0.139 0.9069 0.004
B 82222 32.14% 32.75 80.54% 0.135 0.8281 -0.087
C 79991 32.78% 32.61 80.27% 0.147 0.7112 -0.071
D 75358 32.88% 32.27 80.23% -0.152 0.6167 -0.054
E 18781 35.26% 35.48 79.37% -0.161 0.4383 -0.169
F 28361 33.49% 34.85 80.42% 0.109 0.8189 -0.007
G 26023 32.88% 34.55 80.5% -0.032 0.6936 -0.165
H 25985 32.98% 34.52 80.7% 0.106 0.7963 -0.07
East 13126 32.52% 46.56 73.54% 0.609 1.2309 -0.622
Northeast 9462 30.39% 49.18 74.77% -0.684 -0.0024 -0.023
Northwest 8084 30.51% 49.56 73.79% -0.046 1.0205 0.328
Southeast 2246 28.8% 43.99 77.96% -0.11 0.6177 -0.67
Southwest 2082 29.31% 43.02 78.39% -0.278 0.6931 -1.272
West 11975 33.39% 46.61 72.45% -0.277 0.726 -1.188

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13728 0.0% 20.47 74.87% -2.192 -0.1807 0.49
Not Using Events or Tokens 58746 29.5% 25.97 80.07% 0.144 0.3581 -0.501
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8704 8.74% 40.46 92.35% 0.771 0.6774 0.384
Start of Game Growth 12223 10.98% 40.25 90.67% 0.249 -0.4582 0.131
Unlimited Undo 22167 23.62% 34.89 86.46% 0.697 -0.0026 0.667
Using Tokens but Not Events 22343 22.71% 32.74 84.35% 0.032 -0.0131 -0.086

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6962 100.0% 31.76 100.0% -0.739 -0.6927 -0.369
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 5333 100.0% 33.47 100.0% 0.403 0.2831 -0.409
Downpour Drenches the World 522 100.0% 40.94 100.0% -0.316 0.033 0.297
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5547 100.0% 34.66 100.0% -0.245 -0.6662 -0.279
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4846 100.0% 33.83 100.0% -0.074 -0.6362 -0.662
Finder of Paths Unseen 233 100.0% 43.03 100.0% 0.308 0.7092 0.818
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2328 100.0% 49.24 100.0% 0.697 0.7515 0.551
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 810 100.0% 36.55 100.0% -0.021 -0.0298 -0.053
Heart of the Wildfire 14048 100.0% 38.89 100.0% 0.167 0.3937 0.091
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 22002 100.0% 38.11 100.0% 0.019 -0.5038 -0.155
Lightning's Swift Strike 22262 107.45% 32.0 102.05% 0.034 0.2775 -0.547
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 160 25.0% 40.07 91.88% 1.029 0.1754 0.702
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 971 33.33% 39.6 82.49% 0.209 -0.4007 0.366
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1336 32.51% 40.86 79.49% 0.124 -0.2532 -0.042
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 4239 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.455 -0.6729 -0.107
Many Minds Move as One 1884 100.0% 35.56 100.0% 0.302 -0.2371 0.124
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 24153 100.0% 40.29 100.0% 0.481 0.164 0.381
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 5983 100.0% 36.85 100.0% -0.106 -0.1217 0.338
River Surges in Sunlight 21496 105.65% 37.55 101.51% -0.367 -0.3147 0.347
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1480 25.85% 41.29 79.66% -0.047 0.3103 -0.448
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 181 26.4% 42.42 86.74% -0.005 -0.2355 -0.05
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 24193 100.0% 38.42 100.0% 0.054 0.0194 0.082
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6969 109.44% 28.71 102.68% -0.177 0.2898 -0.472
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 61 21.67% 34.13 88.52% 0.263 0.3601 0.4
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 65 26.56% 31.92 92.31% 0.021 -0.1546 0.961
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 485 36.1% 34.46 80.41% -0.284 -0.3435 -0.439
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 441 40.65% 32.85 81.86% 0.763 0.9236 -0.021
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 10123 100.0% 36.47 100.0% 0.024 -0.2781 0.166
Shifting Memory of Ages 1696 100.0% 38.63 100.0% -0.196 -0.1573 -0.352
Shroud of Silent Mist 1771 100.0% 33.77 100.0% -0.551 -0.2263 0.242
Starlight Seeks its Form 1563 100.0% 40.74 100.0% 0.121 -0.083 0.197
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 5973 100.0% 38.04 100.0% -0.161 -0.347 -0.099
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3976 100.0% 36.49 100.0% 0.464 0.5481 0.347
Thunderspeaker 16450 100.0% 32.07 100.0% -0.445 -0.4757 -0.406
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2579 100.0% 33.72 100.0% -0.454 -0.4979 -0.403
Vital Strength of the Earth 17034 103.63% 32.26 101.27% -0.367 0.4274 -0.328
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 228 22.57% 43.2 87.28% 0.255 0.707 0.327
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 699 35.93% 35.38 73.25% 0.097 1.1283 -0.512
Volcano Looming High 2738 100.0% 34.81 100.0% -0.598 -0.572 -0.31

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.66%
Gift of Proliferation 78.44%
Overgrow in a Night 81.71%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 27137 22.6 26.46%
II 84858 31.02 79.86%
III 75598 34.59 89.48%
IV 24678 37.83 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7174
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 66228
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 65104
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24387
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3839
Lose: Adversary condition 14514
Win: Sacrifice victory 456
Lose: Scenario condition 2886
Win: Scenario condition 3795
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22997
Lose: Spirit destroyed 891

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.769 Win Model: -0.193

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.348 Win Model: 0.351
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 70649 30.72% 28.65 75.85%
2 76402 37.71% 32.07 79.0%
3 31757 33.26% 34.66 81.06%
4 31545 27.54% 39.98 81.98%
5 321 26.35% 34.58 85.05%
6 1597 22.43% 41.56 82.65%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)