Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
A Spread of Rampant Green

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
178042	33.13%	32.43	78.55%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	68580	22.1%	21.32	0.000	87.76%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	774	27.55%	29.55	-0.616	86.82%	-0.301	-0.0114
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	573	31.76%	34.84	1.909	86.56%	-0.164	0.2499
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	686	40.67%	40.34	4.714	80.47%	-0.732	0.1511
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	765	53.14%	39.59	4.634	69.54%	-1.201	0.0413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	449	72.83%	43.53	6.828	63.25%	-1.206	0.2902
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	230	70.87%	43.57	6.467	52.61%	-1.765	0.1742
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1120	73.64%	44.38	6.883	46.34%	-2.011	0.0324
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	6556	25.03%	25.62	-1.699	88.67%	0.046	0.087
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	4563	27.23%	30.93	0.75	89.26%	0.152	0.1335

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	3143	27.62%	33.49	0.194	81.26%	-0.017	0.5487
Dahan Insurrection	4	3004	26.38%	60.14	11.303	77.0%	-0.138	0.2619
Despicable Theft	2	73	38.36%	37.1	2.152	75.34%	-0.336	-0.0618
Elemental Invocation	1	297	50.84%	30.69	-2.016	58.25%	-0.913	-0.4104
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	11944	11.66%	44.18	3.57	75.97%	-0.683	-0.3185
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1142	41.65%	38.24	1.691	73.47%	-0.433	0.0135
Rituals of Terror	3	1507	36.6%	41.15	5.282	77.57%	-0.18	0.465
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	651	61.98%	37.48	3.234	71.89%	-0.219	0.4277
Second Wave	0	7837	35.49%	30.59	-0.511	80.12%	-0.426	0.0039
The Great River	3	182	41.21%	33.92	1.177	69.78%	-1.232	0.2415
Ward the Shores	2	1413	34.36%	37.13	1.345	67.45%	-0.998	0.0336

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	55702	30.23%	28.18	-0.953	76.29%	-2.014	-1.9273
1	Thematic	3932	37.41%	35.2	0.764	67.98%	-1.885	-1.6085
2	Archipelago	10	10.0%	34.3	1.355	100.0%	0.448	0.4546
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	42935	38.71%	32.0	0.129	79.06%	-0.809	-0.7831
2	Coastline	6131	32.38%	31.13	-0.322	82.73%	-0.743	-0.7681
2	Fragment	1219	39.68%	27.64	-1.504	76.7%	-1.152	-0.9292
2	Heart	1284	17.39%	26.35	-1.117	89.41%	-0.656	-0.5565
2	Opposite Shores	7929	36.34%	31.57	-0.523	78.07%	-0.919	-0.8538
2	Thematic	3326	44.27%	37.81	1.008	67.53%	-0.866	-0.9326
2	Top to Top	1217	35.7%	32.24	0.109	79.79%	-0.811	-0.8801

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	3881	32.58	-1.849	56.2%	-1.851	0.2182
Aid From Lesser Spirits	3886	33.6	-1.255	59.8%	-1.754	0.1592
All Things Weaken	1297	32.73	-1.792	54.2%	-1.879	0.2803
Back Against the Wall	3795	32.86	-1.8	54.81%	-1.976	0.1112
Disintegrating Ecosystem	3831	29.59	-3.321	52.31%	-2.039	0.1828
Downward Spiral	11171	25.69	-3.656	56.47%	-2.081	-0.0598
Erosion of Will	3952	30.91	-2.543	52.88%	-2.038	0.1699
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	667	37.83	0.697	76.16%	-0.794	-0.1157
Memory Fades to Dust	11044	25.45	-3.765	53.16%	-2.24	-0.0249
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1230	31.62	-2.225	55.28%	-1.906	0.1149
Promising Farmlands	3865	29.8	-3.069	53.82%	-2.001	0.2067
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	445	37.26	0.497	80.67%	-0.615	-0.2031
Thriving Communities	1324	30.95	-2.598	51.74%	-2.018	0.0704
Tipping Point	2081	30.19	-2.937	53.63%	-2.005	0.2201
Unnatural Proliferation	1380	32.95	-1.563	55.43%	-1.914	0.1664
Untended Land Crumbles	1335	30.72	-2.777	51.99%	-2.054	0.0483

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	32374	31.83%	30.99	-0.291	79.79%	0.271	-0.4172
B	33937	31.06%	31.15	-0.322	79.78%	0.253	-0.5311
C	32977	33.97%	30.82	-0.415	78.7%	0.239	-0.7732
D	31153	34.24%	30.73	-0.463	78.33%	0.225	-0.5524
E	5491	36.19%	34.22	0.193	76.98%	0.212	-0.6827
East	2868	39.73%	39.41	1.361	67.26%	-0.474	-1.05
F	10304	33.55%	34.2	0.404	79.37%	0.342	-0.4986
G	9417	33.26%	33.22	0.002	79.01%	0.238	-0.5944
H	9212	33.72%	32.99	0.038	79.78%	0.325	-0.5138
Northeast	4114	30.37%	49.61	4.287	76.52%	-0.161	-0.686
Northwest	2267	29.99%	48.26	4.375	72.43%	0.024	-0.5712
Southeast	716	31.33%	40.4	0.747	76.4%	-0.235	-0.8641
Southwest	437	33.87%	35.82	-0.93	70.48%	-0.572	-0.7705
West	2775	40.61%	40.3	1.218	65.95%	-0.618	-0.9455

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	11499	0.0%	20.27	-4.661	74.11%	-1.959	0.0935
Not Using Events or Tokens	49273	29.82%	25.72	-2.368	79.92%	-0.118	0.097
Skip Initial Invader Actions	7236	8.56%	40.11	2.652	92.43%	0.693	0.0066
Start of Game Growth	10239	10.6%	39.92	2.477	90.96%	0.489	0.0204
Unlimited Undo	18555	23.76%	34.56	0.84	86.03%	0.364	-0.0587
Using Tokens but Not Events	18843	22.98%	32.33	-0.474	84.03%	0.044	-0.0074

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	6036	43.99%	30.72	-1.357	75.66%	-0.434	-0.2362
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4304	30.47%	33.61	-0.393	81.48%	-0.102	-0.2161
Eyes Watch From the Trees	4319	27.04%	34.78	0.124	84.14%	0.003	-0.4011
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	3862	29.43%	33.82	-0.611	78.22%	-0.315	-0.6202
Fractured Days Split the Sky	1558	27.06%	48.75	4.819	84.34%	0.355	0.703
Heart of the Wildfire	12154	49.52%	38.67	1.535	78.62%	0.325	0.644
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	19159	29.73%	37.98	1.187	82.08%	0.093	-0.2498
Lightning's Swift Strike	20864	31.8%	32.37	-0.498	80.3%	-0.212	0.014
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	2588	36.1%	37.8	1.03	82.77%	0.322	0.0349
Many Minds Move as One	1342	31.56%	35.63	0.407	84.5%	0.149	-0.3845

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	5212	3.938	34.121	79.49%
Animated Wrackroot	6040	3.755	35.91	84.83%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	783	3.575	35.725	85.57%
Birds Cry Warning	653	5.511	41.456	80.09%
Blood Draws Predators	990	4.758	39.581	83.43%
Call of the Dahan Ways	18891	2.876	32.795	84.56%
Call To Bloodshed	3533	2.346	30.285	82.71%
Call to Ferocity	982	4.916	40.496	83.2%
Call to Guard	1952	5.006	39.309	82.02%
Call To Isolation	4128	3.722	35.27	83.94%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	8203	2.975	30.742	81.96%
Angry Bears	360	3.311	34.003	86.67%
Bargains of Power and Protection	412	4.502	36.752	77.67%
Blazing Renewal	7120	4.15	33.998	78.64%
Bloodwrack Plague	1622	3.928	34.117	78.67%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	1141	3.555	32.402	79.4%
Cleansing Floods	5867	2.729	29.177	79.27%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	3150	3.621	33.925	83.49%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	1235	2.602	27.368	75.3%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	375	4.019	32.16	76.8%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Fields Choked with Growth	80.64%
Gift of Proliferation	78.24%
Overgrow in a Night	81.79%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water	82.75%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	22813	22.37	26.14%
II	71438	30.88	79.77%
III	63199	34.39	89.29%
IV	20592	37.55	99.44%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	12204
Lose: Blight pool ran out	19446
Lose: Invader deck ran out	3270
Lose: Scenario condition	2527
Lose: Spirit destroyed	736
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	4195
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	39287
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	39930
Win: Sacrifice victory	381
Win: Scenario condition	3261
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	14642

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.765 Win Model: -0.184

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	3002	8.55%	26.62	93.24%	93.27%
-2	1268	8.44%	26.42	91.96%	92.02%
-1	2236	14.59%	23.29	89.31%	90.57%
0	58934	22.47%	20.38	87.43%	88.88%
1	16509	23.49%	25.38	88.79%	86.93%
2	9987	27.99%	29.14	87.54%	84.7%
3	9738	31.55%	32.9	83.91%	82.17%
4	10625	32.11%	37.34	83.26%	79.32%
5	7766	38.17%	39.03	74.07%	76.15%
6	12678	42.69%	41.39	74.06%	72.66%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.503 Win Model: -0.585

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	59720	30.74%	28.65	75.74%
2	64320	37.64%	32.01	78.91%
3	26658	33.15%	34.25	80.85%
4	27344	27.69%	39.9	81.63%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.