Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 56 17.86% 26.82 82.14% 0.037 0.5327 0.321
Blitz 0 3029 26.53% 34.41 81.31% 1.256 1.699 0.058
Dahan Insurrection 4 2644 23.38% 61.03 78.1% -0.279 -0.1815 0.65
Despicable Theft 2 140 35.0% 37.14 74.29% -0.699 -0.2005 0.116
Elemental Invocation 1 417 49.04% 31.06 62.35% 0.373 0.9192 -1.349
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10145 11.37% 45.02 77.06% -0.826 -0.5946 0.33
Powers Long Forgotten 1 896 42.84% 37.61 70.98% 0.211 0.6187 -0.896
Rituals of Terror 3 1372 34.81% 48.07 78.5% 1.61 1.374 1.032
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 484 58.42% 38.19 73.14% -0.022 0.2041 0.06
Second Wave 0 6986 33.76% 30.47 80.8% -0.159 0.5336 0.015
The Great River 3 263 40.61% 35.33 71.86% -0.732 0.8497 -1.121
Varied Terrains 2 140 35.71% 32.67 76.43% -0.312 0.4744 -0.85
Ward the Shores 2 1104 33.43% 36.22 68.93% -1.381 -0.5005 -0.51

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 68274 30.13% 28.23 76.36% -0.404 0.2592 -0.045
1 Thematic 4561 36.64% 35.07 68.65% 0.009 1.0657 -0.26
2 Archipelago 44 20.45% 36.14 88.64% 0.911 1.3821 0.855
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 52388 38.59% 32.11 79.2% 0.13 0.6482 0.374
2 Coastline 7712 32.01% 31.05 82.96% 0.654 0.8547 0.349
2 Fragment 1528 40.59% 28.22 77.36% 0.259 0.557 0.85
2 Heart 1423 20.29% 26.57 88.69% 0.16 0.6206 0.155
2 Opposite Shores 9993 36.49% 31.58 78.09% -0.121 0.4181 -0.467
2 Thematic 3863 43.77% 37.97 67.95% -0.421 0.3615 0.081
2 Top to Top 1548 35.93% 32.32 79.84% 0.091 0.2185 0.277
3 Archipelago 62 32.26% 35.73 88.71% 0.645 0.4266 0.093
3 Coastline 198 39.04% 34.89 79.29% 0.595 0.0882 0.231
3 Other 1334 35.38% 31.85 79.84% -0.182 -0.8457 0.309
3 Round (Default) 29963 32.96% 34.34 81.42% 0.265 0.5697 0.132
3 Sunrise 113 32.99% 32.61 89.38% -0.425 0.0347 1.155
3 Thematic 1169 40.33% 43.02 71.6% 0.414 0.6219 -0.069
4 Archipelago 78 34.72% 36.12 82.05% -0.05 -0.0871 -0.305
4 Coastline 158 21.43% 35.06 77.22% 0.135 0.0975 0.633
4 Leaf 154 39.07% 36.53 76.62% 0.633 0.5316 -0.391
4 Other 1090 34.21% 38.48 83.03% -0.127 -0.8405 0.521
4 Reverse Snake 8 28.57% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 5895 25.27% 55.6 77.39% -0.475 -0.3708 0.152
4 Trapezoid (Default) 24901 27.63% 36.55 83.13% -0.172 -0.0947 -0.083
5 Archipelago 23 56.52% 38.22 78.26% 0.126 0.0283 -0.557
5 Coastline 15 0.0% 37.27 100.0% 0.136 -0.452 -0.025
5 Other 689 31.65% 39.65 89.26% -0.046 -0.562 0.51
5 Thematic 155 30.32% 55.68 82.58% -0.352 -0.6392 0.526
6 Archipelago 68 20.75% 41.06 88.24% -0.96 -1.1066 -1.642
6 Coastline 37 28.57% 29.43 97.3% 0.206 -0.4284 -0.613
6 Other 290 26.81% 41.89 76.55% 0.205 0.2498 -1.346
6 Star 158 29.3% 38.26 64.56% -1.077 -0.3063 -1.433
6 Thematic 631 23.53% 44.13 80.98% -0.306 -0.0655 -0.43
6 Two Centers (Default) 785 20.45% 41.44 88.41% 0.214 0.4057 -0.717
7 Archipelago 17 41.18% 61.65 82.35% -0.682 -0.533 -0.714
7 Other 11 22.22% 36.64 100.0% -0.021 -0.5044 -0.104

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4708 32.72 56.69% -1.803 0.168 -0.568
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4658 33.86 60.22% -1.634 0.1442 -0.485
All Things Weaken 1926 33.78 55.14% -1.572 0.4763 -0.604
Back Against the Wall 4538 33.2 54.83% -1.763 0.1756 -0.624
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4559 29.95 52.67% -2.124 0.0038 -0.758
Downward Spiral 13389 25.76 56.08% -2.456 -0.4953 -0.61
Erosion of Will 4674 30.89 52.78% -1.818 0.2635 -0.738
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 979 37.74 77.32% -0.348 0.1533 -0.023
Memory Fades to Dust 13235 25.52 53.09% -2.371 -0.2302 -0.723
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1798 31.77 54.39% -2.17 -0.1895 -0.664
Promising Farmlands 4602 29.91 53.32% -2.161 -0.1393 -0.929
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 649 37.58 81.82% -0.422 0.0748 -0.006
Thriving Communities 1923 31.4 52.83% -2.118 -0.059 -0.825
Tipping Point 2082 30.19 53.65% 0.0 0.0 -0.737
Unnatural Proliferation 1992 33.29 55.52% -1.952 0.0049 -0.612
Untended Land Crumbles 1974 31.36 52.68% -2.173 -0.1396 -0.603

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 81089 31.89% 32.58 80.74% 0.108 0.8441 -0.005
B 84729 32.01% 32.8 80.61% 0.029 0.7257 -0.098
C 82590 32.67% 32.66 80.32% 0.064 0.534 -0.079
D 77671 32.72% 32.32 80.32% -0.009 0.7001 -0.06
E 20089 35.06% 35.61 79.54% 0.066 0.6104 -0.175
F 29721 33.48% 34.9 80.36% -0.285 0.377 -0.033
G 27147 32.91% 34.62 80.53% 0.103 0.7339 -0.154
H 27162 32.95% 34.57 80.65% -0.166 0.4988 -0.112
East 13481 32.48% 46.6 73.67% 0.039 0.7004 -0.613
Northeast 9716 30.35% 49.25 74.9% -0.033 0.6268 -0.018
Northwest 8310 30.53% 49.67 73.98% 0.183 0.793 0.338
Southeast 2419 29.22% 44.17 78.21% -0.119 0.4123 -0.657
Southwest 2245 29.67% 43.17 78.49% -0.602 0.3662 -1.334
West 12296 33.38% 46.67 72.61% -0.208 0.5975 -1.217

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 14164 0.0% 20.46 74.77% -2.279 -0.0501 0.466
Not Using Events or Tokens 60721 29.33% 26.01 80.11% 0.086 0.3127 -0.469
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9012 8.68% 40.57 92.29% 0.505 -0.4756 0.403
Start of Game Growth 12650 10.97% 40.31 90.63% 0.482 0.0249 0.108
Unlimited Undo 22931 23.62% 34.85 86.45% 0.542 -0.0095 0.614
Using Tokens but Not Events 23159 22.6% 32.82 84.38% 0.152 0.3073 -0.082

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 7137 100.0% 31.83 100.0% -0.633 -0.5548 -0.377
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 5540 100.0% 33.4 100.0% -0.167 -0.3913 -0.421
Downpour Drenches the World 811 100.0% 40.79 100.0% -0.301 -0.0364 0.183
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5789 100.0% 34.65 100.0% -0.229 -0.7317 -0.3
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 5029 100.0% 33.81 100.0% 0.323 -0.2637 -0.696
Finder of Paths Unseen 386 100.0% 43.45 100.0% 0.416 0.7717 1.03
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2482 100.0% 49.41 100.0% 0.354 0.4363 0.517
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 903 100.0% 36.38 100.0% -0.374 -0.4691 -0.035
Heart of the Wildfire 14400 100.0% 38.93 100.0% 0.459 0.8649 0.105
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 22573 100.0% 38.13 100.0% 0.045 -0.5588 -0.174
Lightning's Swift Strike 22880 108.02% 31.97 102.19% -0.228 0.1365 -0.542
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 298 29.62% 43.18 87.25% 0.257 -0.4917 0.592
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 1029 33.46% 39.51 82.51% 0.173 -0.3911 0.373
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1416 32.34% 41.0 80.08% 0.407 -0.0877 -0.021
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 4565 100.0% 37.18 100.0% -0.146 -0.2974 -0.116
Many Minds Move as One 1982 100.0% 35.65 100.0% 0.164 -0.4221 0.143
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 24841 100.0% 40.36 100.0% 0.105 -0.0643 0.354
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 6219 100.0% 36.83 100.0% -0.467 -0.5236 0.333
River Surges in Sunlight 22147 106.04% 37.53 101.57% 0.317 0.2428 0.346
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1559 25.44% 41.37 80.12% 0.421 0.8472 -0.487
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 282 31.41% 45.46 86.88% 0.992 0.6508 0.49
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 24802 100.0% 38.49 100.0% 0.205 0.0111 0.06
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7122 110.01% 28.68 102.77% -0.074 0.4006 -0.484
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 78 23.38% 36.28 88.46% 0.164 0.344 0.384
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 89 28.41% 32.69 91.01% 0.048 0.1038 0.795
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 512 35.95% 34.27 80.66% -0.085 -0.1081 -0.438
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 457 40.76% 32.93 82.28% 0.232 0.3476 0.014
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 10348 100.0% 36.44 100.0% -0.113 -0.3047 0.141
Shifting Memory of Ages 1874 100.0% 38.91 100.0% 0.038 0.2529 -0.351
Shroud of Silent Mist 1920 100.0% 33.51 100.0% -0.473 -0.3385 0.204
Starlight Seeks its Form 1838 100.0% 40.99 100.0% -0.348 -0.4624 0.194
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 6255 100.0% 38.24 100.0% -0.089 -0.3276 -0.115
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 4190 100.0% 36.81 100.0% 0.22 0.3504 0.375
Thunderspeaker 16939 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.545 -0.5618 -0.402
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2664 100.0% 33.83 100.0% -0.265 -0.4811 -0.398
Vital Strength of the Earth 17525 104.29% 32.27 101.44% -0.264 0.6342 -0.342
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 378 24.53% 44.47 84.39% 0.112 0.5344 0.148
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 733 35.4% 35.37 73.67% -0.403 0.7117 -0.466
Volcano Looming High 2982 100.0% 35.06 100.0% -0.122 -0.1432 -0.283

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.64%
Gift of Proliferation 78.51%
Overgrow in a Night 81.68%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28066 22.65 26.64%
II 87820 31.08 79.96%
III 78078 34.66 89.48%
IV 25414 37.91 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7471
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 68429
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 67484
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25118
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3976
Lose: Adversary condition 15020
Win: Sacrifice victory 463
Lose: Scenario condition 2950
Win: Scenario condition 3885
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23660
Lose: Spirit destroyed 922

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.997 Win Model: -0.174

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.375 Win Model: 0.208
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 73008 30.61% 28.67 75.86%
2 78812 37.59% 32.11 79.06%
3 32827 33.28% 34.78 81.13%
4 32375 27.42% 39.9 82.05%
5 397 28.49% 35.56 84.63%
6 1959 23.09% 42.11 83.0%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)