Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2087 26.68% 34.04 0.494 81.12% 0.028 0.5357
Dahan Insurrection 4 2002 28.14% 59.35 11.168 75.57% -0.12 0.2682
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7647 11.51% 42.99 3.251 74.33% -0.721 -0.3233
Powers Long Forgotten 1 831 39.78% 40.01 2.465 75.57% -0.245 0.1687
Rituals of Terror 3 1003 36.52% 42.19 5.665 77.27% -0.085 0.5286
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 485 64.86% 37.57 3.251 70.72% -0.159 0.4667
Second Wave 0 5108 36.16% 30.8 -0.309 79.82% -0.384 0.0409
Ward the Shores 2 936 37.84% 37.58 1.621 64.64% -0.871 0.0921

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 33844 30.84% 28.27 -0.935 75.29% -1.314 -0.8873
1 Thematic 1051 38.88% 34.78 0.448 65.08% -1.386 -1.0117
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 26496 38.71% 32.3 0.233 78.65% -0.429 -0.1631
2 Coastline 3550 30.05% 31.07 -0.302 84.0% -0.325 -0.1574
2 Fragment 798 34.99% 27.13 -1.674 77.32% -0.798 -0.2609
2 Heart 848 16.59% 26.23 -1.165 89.62% -0.223 0.1375
2 Opposite Shores 4624 37.72% 31.82 -0.341 77.14% -0.514 -0.2145
2 Thematic 2204 45.26% 38.03 0.942 65.56% -0.708 -0.8145
2 Top to Top 734 33.9% 31.75 -0.128 79.16% -0.563 -0.3357
3 Coastline 47 14.29% 33.94 -0.23 82.98% -0.421 -0.0914
3 Other 493 36.04% 29.37 -1.578 78.5% -0.279 0.231
3 Round (Default) 15417 31.58% 33.94 0.149 81.31% 0.07 0.1705
3 Sunrise 59 35.09% 33.24 -0.172 88.14% 0.484 0.5378
3 Thematic 640 41.08% 39.61 1.013 68.44% -0.24 -0.7914
4 Coastline 37 13.89% 33.76 -2.313 59.46% -0.288 0.6461
4 Leaf 91 36.26% 37.2 0.207 79.12% 0.577 0.6539
4 Other 463 37.55% 35.67 -0.366 75.81% 0.164 0.4653
4 Reverse Snake 7 33.33% 33.57 0.002 100.0% 0.626 0.1461
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 2.281 100.0% 0.865 1.2519
4 Thematic 3298 25.75% 54.05 4.886 74.14% 0.593 -0.9177
4 Trapezoid (Default) 12350 29.26% 35.94 0.173 81.62% 0.477 0.5434
5 Other 72 27.78% 41.68 2.459 97.22% 2.163 1.272
5 Thematic 18 22.22% 65.06 9.818 88.89% 1.514 -0.9625

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2570 32.63 -1.89 55.76% -1.838 0.2168
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2585 33.79 -1.186 60.31% -1.675 0.2401
All Things Weaken 282 30.72 -2.59 53.9% -1.921 0.2257
Back Against the Wall 2468 32.96 -1.828 54.62% -1.939 0.1498
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2545 29.66 -3.344 52.1% -1.992 0.2075
Downward Spiral 7339 25.94 -3.607 56.81% -2.029 -0.0233
Erosion of Will 2591 30.62 -2.741 51.52% -2.06 0.1437
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 141 35.09 -0.467 68.79% -1.097 -0.357
Memory Fades to Dust 7077 25.75 -3.698 53.38% -2.186 0.0247
Power Corrodes the Spirit 271 31.43 -2.152 58.67% -1.631 0.325
Promising Farmlands 2599 29.47 -3.285 53.02% -2.01 0.2031
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 95 38.49 1.053 82.11% -0.328 0.1321
Thriving Communities 273 29.75 -3.003 49.08% -2.117 0.0077
Tipping Point 2077 30.18 -2.932 53.64% -1.955 0.2323
Unnatural Proliferation 283 30.69 -2.576 49.12% -2.083 0.0152
Untended Land Crumbles 282 30.42 -2.956 51.06% -2.015 0.0926

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 20875 31.78% 31.18 -0.269 79.32% 0.207 -0.7124
B 21838 31.34% 31.33 -0.29 79.3% 0.194 -0.8229
C 21511 34.67% 30.9 -0.461 78.08% 0.171 -1.0803
D 20165 34.29% 30.63 -0.548 77.94% 0.138 -0.8752
E 1058 38.56% 34.71 0.34 75.24% 0.148 -0.8746
F 4540 33.27% 34.14 0.378 78.44% 0.251 -0.8243
G 4422 32.87% 33.56 0.082 78.25% 0.171 -0.887
H 4242 33.55% 33.36 0.161 79.63% 0.285 -0.7559
East 1958 40.28% 39.24 1.606 65.78% -0.328 -0.9905
Northeast 2869 29.67% 49.24 4.249 74.94% -0.029 -0.6274
Northwest 1566 30.67% 46.92 4.194 70.69% 0.146 -0.518
Southeast 156 33.97% 41.15 1.186 70.51% -0.451 -1.0197
Southwest 91 37.36% 37.57 0.141 69.23% -0.342 -0.6736
West 1857 42.44% 38.58 1.011 63.44% -0.515 -0.8654

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 6536 0.0% 20.02 -4.692 73.03% -1.917 0.1242
Not Using Events or Tokens 28466 30.93% 25.63 -2.449 79.2% -0.096 0.1209
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4258 8.97% 37.94 2.042 91.36% 0.555 -0.2447
Start of Game Growth 6257 10.7% 39.04 2.314 90.01% 0.515 0.1177
Unlimited Undo 11100 25.75% 34.19 0.756 83.88% 0.266 -0.1084
Using Tokens but Not Events 12357 23.77% 31.4 -0.628 83.32% 0.044 0.0044

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4179 43.6% 31.3 -1.18 75.42% -0.327 -0.094
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2182 30.95% 35.05 0.132 81.3% 0.071 -0.027
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2187 26.4% 35.24 0.26 83.31% 0.054 -0.3084
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2005 29.88% 34.42 -0.418 76.76% -0.231 -0.4351
Heart of the Wildfire 8481 49.28% 38.47 1.53 78.3% 0.4 0.7112
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 13495 29.04% 37.79 1.247 81.93% 0.195 -0.0964
Lightning's Swift Strike 12928 32.86% 32.08 -0.597 78.62% -0.181 0.1299
Many Minds Move as One 75 20.0% 33.92 -0.087 89.33% 0.112 -0.6971
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 12772 32.04% 40.57 2.371 80.5% 0.348 0.1253
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2549 28.72% 36.83 0.94 83.01% 0.235 0.2649
River Surges in Sunlight 11970 30.29% 37.03 0.987 79.55% -0.158 0.0252
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 13828 32.51% 37.44 1.168 79.02% 0.137 0.2941
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 4503 42.68% 29.95 -1.298 77.37% -0.237 0.2252
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 6742 26.79% 36.06 0.402 82.97% -0.004 -0.0711
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1567 34.02% 36.12 0.049 75.18% -0.288 -0.3601
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1725 28.14% 37.55 0.987 83.59% 0.177 0.3847
Thunderspeaker 9604 31.86% 32.57 -0.3 78.61% -0.276 -0.2128
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 815 48.89% 33.52 -0.816 74.85% -0.013 -0.0039
Vital Strength of the Earth 9822 22.9% 32.15 -0.74 79.78% -0.378 0.5004

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.54%
Gift of Proliferation 77.92%
Overgrow in a Night 81.93%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.53%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14300 22.26 25.27%
II 43034 30.33 79.6%
III 37570 33.73 89.03%
IV 12244 36.81 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1847
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17393
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17363
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6377
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1985
Lose: Adversary condition 7561
Win: Sacrifice victory 219
Lose: Scenario condition 1734
Win: Scenario condition 2115
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11913
Lose: Spirit destroyed 478

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.74 Win Model: -0.181

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.501 Win Model: -0.319
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 34912 31.09% 28.47 74.99%
2 39317 37.55% 32.22 78.45%
3 16645 32.06% 34.03 80.8%
4 16274 28.72% 39.65 79.91%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-05-11 02:19:36 (Pacific Time)