Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2877 27.82% 33.68 0.278 80.71% -0.046 0.5347
Dahan Insurrection 4 2754 26.82% 60.01 11.322 76.36% -0.154 0.249
Despicable Theft 2 28 25.0% 37.0 1.755 75.0% -0.813 -0.4629
Elemental Invocation 1 172 48.84% 30.63 -2.082 63.95% -0.703 -0.3309
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10942 11.88% 43.49 3.394 75.52% -0.7 -0.3356
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1087 41.64% 38.38 1.813 74.15% -0.39 0.0516
Rituals of Terror 3 1378 36.63% 41.11 5.225 77.14% -0.202 0.4321
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 617 62.15% 37.8 3.364 72.45% -0.166 0.4751
Second Wave 0 7218 35.96% 30.64 -0.459 79.9% -0.42 0.0042
The Great River 3 125 39.2% 33.67 1.279 72.8% -1.181 0.2402
Ward the Shores 2 1333 34.83% 37.15 1.35 67.29% -0.977 0.064

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 50275 30.35% 28.13 -0.973 76.13% -2.215 -1.8873
1 Thematic 3625 37.64% 35.49 0.887 67.45% -2.008 -1.534
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 38614 38.83% 32.01 0.13 78.98% -0.907 -0.7106
2 Coastline 5439 32.29% 31.04 -0.361 83.01% -0.844 -0.6936
2 Fragment 1123 38.8% 27.5 -1.56 76.76% -1.266 -0.8614
2 Heart 1232 16.55% 26.31 -1.109 90.02% -0.715 -0.4027
2 Opposite Shores 7036 36.53% 31.82 -0.399 78.11% -0.991 -0.7682
2 Thematic 3054 44.37% 37.9 1.089 67.16% -0.88 -0.8517
2 Top to Top 1078 34.43% 32.24 0.127 80.24% -0.918 -0.7778
3 Coastline 124 34.75% 35.25 0.462 80.65% -0.041 -0.0881
3 Other 952 38.27% 31.34 -0.97 77.52% -0.476 -0.0372
3 Round (Default) 22318 32.73% 34.05 0.112 81.2% 0.006 0.0636
3 Sunrise 75 29.58% 33.68 0.052 89.33% 0.457 0.2598
3 Thematic 911 40.85% 42.36 2.099 70.14% 0.063 -0.2981
4 Coastline 91 17.78% 35.96 -0.597 74.73% 0.2 0.3705
4 Leaf 115 39.82% 36.92 0.131 77.39% 0.739 0.8029
4 Other 821 34.4% 39.86 1.13 81.85% 0.678 0.8091
4 Reverse Snake 8 28.57% 32.5 -0.591 100.0% 0.736 -0.044
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 2.348 100.0% 1.0 1.1553
4 Thematic 4642 26.01% 53.49 4.734 75.36% 1.26 0.2001
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18944 28.1% 36.11 0.26 82.69% 0.865 0.903
5 Other 223 34.84% 41.74 2.154 93.27% 2.172 1.9727
5 Thematic 64 25.0% 68.38 11.257 96.88% 3.168 0.2113

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3570 32.64 -1.813 56.36% -1.842 0.2287
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3578 33.47 -1.318 59.59% -1.761 0.1612
All Things Weaken 1042 32.91 -1.683 54.8% -1.834 0.3191
Back Against the Wall 3494 32.8 -1.843 54.55% -1.983 0.1132
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3513 29.52 -3.348 52.35% -2.033 0.1928
Downward Spiral 10280 25.74 -3.643 56.6% -2.066 -0.0476
Erosion of Will 3605 30.73 -2.642 52.29% -2.064 0.1468
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 526 37.47 0.549 74.9% -0.846 -0.1529
Memory Fades to Dust 10073 25.54 -3.733 53.13% -2.226 -0.0103
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1008 31.15 -2.392 54.66% -1.916 0.1007
Promising Farmlands 3571 29.75 -3.108 53.51% -2.014 0.1991
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 347 37.8 0.711 80.4% -0.615 -0.1845
Thriving Communities 1076 30.53 -2.762 50.19% -2.079 0.0167
Tipping Point 2081 30.19 -2.936 53.63% -2.003 0.2187
Unnatural Proliferation 1112 32.56 -1.692 55.4% -1.927 0.1589
Untended Land Crumbles 1093 30.87 -2.7 51.6% -2.045 0.051

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 29545 31.77% 31.03 -0.277 79.79% 0.306 -0.7959
B 31005 31.17% 31.19 -0.3 79.79% 0.291 -0.9048
C 30236 34.2% 30.78 -0.432 78.45% 0.265 -1.1636
D 28517 34.37% 30.61 -0.505 78.19% 0.247 -0.944
E 4364 35.82% 34.64 0.387 77.31% 0.277 -1.0222
F 8884 33.81% 34.31 0.436 79.09% 0.375 -0.8788
G 8181 33.06% 33.35 0.062 79.17% 0.286 -0.9562
H 7984 33.88% 32.96 0.041 79.48% 0.356 -0.901
East 2650 40.41% 39.22 1.324 66.3% -0.525 -1.4845
Northeast 3827 29.88% 49.5 4.314 76.12% -0.203 -1.1045
Northwest 2110 30.17% 47.9 4.271 71.8% -0.034 -1.0092
Southeast 577 31.42% 39.89 0.676 75.74% -0.304 -1.3084
Southwest 374 36.63% 35.62 -0.926 69.52% -0.57 -1.1696
West 2517 42.16% 38.73 0.814 64.36% -0.685 -1.3849

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 10398 0.0% 20.39 -4.58 74.11% -1.929 0.1197
Not Using Events or Tokens 44363 30.01% 25.7 -2.402 79.82% -0.125 0.0959
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6522 8.65% 39.27 2.481 92.2% 0.65 -0.055
Start of Game Growth 9245 10.68% 39.39 2.396 90.78% 0.49 0.0384
Unlimited Undo 16608 23.94% 34.3 0.805 85.77% 0.359 -0.058
Using Tokens but Not Events 17154 23.31% 32.14 -0.493 83.77% 0.031 -0.0203

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5602 43.73% 30.82 -1.318 75.67% -0.436 -0.2047
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3849 31.19% 33.82 -0.312 81.01% -0.105 -0.1911
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3819 27.08% 34.93 0.178 83.66% -0.035 -0.405
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3435 28.9% 33.71 -0.646 78.22% -0.321 -0.577
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1182 28.28% 47.45 4.628 83.84% 0.36 0.7211
Heart of the Wildfire 11158 49.89% 38.64 1.511 78.21% 0.299 0.6482
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 17833 29.61% 37.78 1.162 81.99% 0.079 -0.2225
Lightning's Swift Strike 19184 31.78% 32.3 -0.499 80.2% -0.221 0.0406
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1858 36.68% 36.94 0.757 82.62% 0.308 0.0187
Many Minds Move as One 1105 31.84% 35.39 0.352 83.8% 0.102 -0.4244
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 18377 31.1% 40.24 2.326 81.52% 0.312 0.1155
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4320 28.29% 36.8 0.863 82.8% 0.084 0.1287
River Surges in Sunlight 17455 28.86% 37.11 1.092 81.16% -0.172 -0.0199
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 19112 31.96% 38.1 1.314 79.52% 0.046 0.1906
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6361 43.24% 29.59 -1.384 77.94% -0.315 0.1275
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8564 27.83% 36.2 0.467 82.78% -0.08 -0.152
Shroud of Silent Mist 497 31.57% 34.12 0.227 86.32% 0.388 0.3647
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3972 37.08% 36.39 0.126 75.58% -0.278 -0.2987
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2849 28.68% 37.13 0.859 84.13% 0.105 0.3142
Thunderspeaker 13054 32.52% 32.12 -0.477 78.8% -0.359 -0.3053
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1829 51.43% 33.91 -0.709 75.4% -0.071 -0.0577
Vital Strength of the Earth 14039 22.61% 32.2 -0.68 80.8% -0.421 0.4476
Volcano Looming High 1053 45.81% 34.33 -0.427 77.3% -0.027 -0.0556

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.64%
Gift of Proliferation 78.14%
Overgrow in a Night 81.65%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.73%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 20769 22.33 25.88%
II 64511 30.75 79.74%
III 56930 34.25 89.21%
IV 18561 37.47 99.41%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3608
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 34380
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 33945
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12629
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2953
Lose: Adversary condition 11036
Win: Sacrifice victory 335
Lose: Scenario condition 2356
Win: Scenario condition 2996
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17681
Lose: Spirit destroyed 689

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.747 Win Model: -0.184

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.492 Win Model: -0.675
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 53965 30.87% 28.64 75.55%
2 57783 37.67% 32.03 78.88%
3 24345 33.25% 34.32 80.73%
4 24678 27.88% 39.55 81.26%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)