Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2974 27.73% 33.64 0.258 80.87% -0.042 0.5316
Dahan Insurrection 4 2858 26.61% 59.98 11.31 76.77% -0.145 0.2544
Despicable Theft 2 54 33.33% 36.67 1.943 74.07% -0.615 -0.333
Elemental Invocation 1 219 45.66% 31.16 -1.74 65.75% -0.728 -0.2888
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 11391 11.82% 43.79 3.473 75.71% -0.693 -0.3276
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1111 41.46% 38.34 1.779 73.72% -0.416 0.0255
Rituals of Terror 3 1432 36.29% 41.18 5.284 77.65% -0.18 0.4641
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 631 62.04% 37.6 3.273 72.11% -0.2 0.4413
Second Wave 0 7562 35.78% 30.61 -0.494 79.99% -0.43 -0.0015
The Great River 3 157 39.49% 34.14 1.286 70.7% -1.243 0.2162
Ward the Shores 2 1361 34.85% 37.1 1.341 67.38% -0.988 0.0488

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 52707 30.26% 28.17 -0.966 76.23% -2.205 -1.8723
1 Thematic 3789 37.31% 35.35 0.836 67.91% -2.031 -1.5325
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 40489 38.73% 32.03 0.138 79.12% -0.899 -0.6985
2 Coastline 5747 32.29% 31.21 -0.309 82.79% -0.839 -0.6847
2 Fragment 1167 39.27% 27.59 -1.522 76.86% -1.248 -0.8525
2 Heart 1258 16.98% 26.26 -1.137 89.75% -0.734 -0.4117
2 Opposite Shores 7426 36.33% 31.73 -0.449 78.36% -0.985 -0.7563
2 Thematic 3186 44.25% 37.83 1.045 67.42% -0.915 -0.8536
2 Top to Top 1144 35.34% 32.16 0.08 80.07% -0.905 -0.7728
3 Coastline 136 36.92% 35.13 0.356 80.15% -0.006 -0.0438
3 Other 1029 36.81% 31.68 -0.859 78.72% -0.435 -0.0148
3 Round (Default) 23279 32.68% 34.0 0.08 81.37% 0.008 0.0636
3 Sunrise 80 30.67% 33.49 -0.055 90.0% 0.502 0.3077
3 Thematic 932 40.89% 42.22 2.026 70.49% 0.025 -0.304
4 Coastline 102 20.79% 35.27 -0.794 73.53% 0.166 0.2911
4 Leaf 120 40.17% 36.26 -0.036 76.67% 0.694 0.7406
4 Other 862 34.43% 39.64 1.045 82.25% 0.689 0.8008
4 Reverse Snake 8 28.57% 32.5 -0.612 100.0% 0.733 -0.0493
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 2.35 100.0% 0.995 1.1494
4 Thematic 4863 25.8% 53.83 4.82 75.94% 1.231 0.2071
4 Trapezoid (Default) 19813 28.05% 36.18 0.276 82.77% 0.862 0.897
5 Other 250 33.87% 41.67 2.119 93.6% 2.202 1.9474
5 Thematic 73 23.29% 66.19 10.402 97.26% 3.175 0.2321

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3702 32.63 -1.812 56.43% -1.842 0.231
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3717 33.53 -1.29 59.81% -1.756 0.1635
All Things Weaken 1146 32.75 -1.767 54.71% -1.864 0.2945
Back Against the Wall 3625 32.89 -1.797 54.84% -1.974 0.1194
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3658 29.59 -3.311 52.49% -2.032 0.1923
Downward Spiral 10679 25.75 -3.646 56.59% -2.072 -0.051
Erosion of Will 3754 30.86 -2.578 52.72% -2.049 0.1593
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 579 37.44 0.539 75.65% -0.828 -0.1357
Memory Fades to Dust 10486 25.5 -3.749 53.18% -2.232 -0.0139
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1107 31.42 -2.294 55.1% -1.919 0.102
Promising Farmlands 3719 29.83 -3.06 53.83% -2.002 0.2123
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 381 37.45 0.617 80.84% -0.62 -0.2092
Thriving Communities 1181 30.8 -2.656 50.89% -2.064 0.0291
Tipping Point 2081 30.19 -2.935 53.63% -2.005 0.2209
Unnatural Proliferation 1230 32.85 -1.585 55.69% -1.924 0.1651
Untended Land Crumbles 1195 30.56 -2.814 51.97% -2.068 0.0376

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 30789 31.79% 31.03 -0.28 79.85% 0.289 -0.8236
B 32353 31.01% 31.16 -0.313 79.84% 0.27 -0.9379
C 31441 34.05% 30.8 -0.426 78.62% 0.251 -1.1878
D 29687 34.3% 30.68 -0.482 78.34% 0.238 -0.9643
E 4873 35.92% 34.37 0.261 77.34% 0.241 -1.071
F 9513 33.66% 34.27 0.429 79.38% 0.369 -0.8966
G 8724 33.11% 33.28 0.028 79.1% 0.258 -0.9988
H 8534 33.8% 33.03 0.059 79.76% 0.349 -0.9173
East 2752 40.1% 39.26 1.327 66.75% -0.502 -1.483
Northeast 3948 30.06% 49.47 4.294 76.34% -0.182 -1.1132
Northwest 2186 30.03% 48.2 4.362 72.19% -0.001 -1.0007
Southeast 639 30.25% 39.96 0.689 76.68% -0.271 -1.2971
Southwest 405 35.8% 35.65 -0.923 69.88% -0.572 -1.1924
West 2623 41.71% 39.3 0.965 65.04% -0.655 -1.3798

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 10859 0.0% 20.35 -4.602 74.33% -1.931 0.1236
Not Using Events or Tokens 46451 29.91% 25.73 -2.381 79.91% -0.122 0.0957
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6841 8.56% 39.65 2.564 92.31% 0.658 -0.0357
Start of Game Growth 9690 10.52% 39.59 2.419 90.91% 0.489 0.0263
Unlimited Undo 17434 23.81% 34.41 0.811 85.95% 0.359 -0.062
Using Tokens but Not Events 17939 23.16% 32.21 -0.485 83.9% 0.036 -0.0163

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5817 43.95% 30.75 -1.341 75.64% -0.46 -0.2312
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4059 30.7% 33.74 -0.35 81.28% -0.126 -0.2125
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4058 27.06% 34.85 0.147 83.91% -0.044 -0.417
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3642 29.22% 33.78 -0.624 78.45% -0.326 -0.5859
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1360 27.74% 47.69 4.63 84.41% 0.352 0.7197
Heart of the Wildfire 11583 49.7% 38.61 1.502 78.5% 0.294 0.6446
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 18389 29.74% 37.81 1.155 82.01% 0.061 -0.2433
Lightning's Swift Strike 19946 31.72% 32.33 -0.497 80.34% -0.234 0.0253
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2200 36.59% 37.44 0.942 82.68% 0.307 0.0337
Many Minds Move as One 1232 31.67% 35.57 0.407 84.25% 0.106 -0.4083
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 19287 30.87% 40.18 2.31 81.71% 0.308 0.1127
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4591 27.95% 36.99 0.928 83.21% 0.098 0.1444
River Surges in Sunlight 18235 28.68% 37.16 1.087 81.25% -0.196 -0.044
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 19869 31.77% 38.17 1.314 79.71% 0.034 0.1783
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6605 43.04% 29.53 -1.404 78.15% -0.327 0.1135
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8781 27.79% 36.2 0.458 82.97% -0.089 -0.1603
Shroud of Silent Mist 792 30.99% 35.69 0.638 87.88% 0.539 0.5196
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4241 37.08% 36.41 0.131 75.69% -0.283 -0.3027
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3000 28.39% 36.92 0.781 84.53% 0.102 0.3049
Thunderspeaker 13496 32.52% 32.13 -0.478 78.9% -0.373 -0.3215
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1956 51.21% 34.05 -0.682 75.36% -0.089 -0.0808
Vital Strength of the Earth 14580 22.56% 32.25 -0.679 80.83% -0.441 0.4293
Volcano Looming High 1284 46.6% 34.57 -0.301 78.19% 0.046 0.0232

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.69%
Gift of Proliferation 78.15%
Overgrow in a Night 81.73%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.86%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21592 22.34 26.0%
II 67608 30.81 79.84%
III 59785 34.31 89.27%
IV 19482 37.5 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3845
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 36920
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 36393
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13544
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3084
Lose: Adversary condition 11503
Win: Sacrifice victory 359
Lose: Scenario condition 2432
Win: Scenario condition 3107
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18411
Lose: Spirit destroyed 706

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.755 Win Model: -0.184

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.495 Win Model: -0.658
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 56568 30.76% 28.66 75.68%
2 60642 37.61% 32.05 78.99%
3 25410 33.17% 34.27 80.94%
4 25847 27.8% 39.66 81.46%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)