Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 24 16.67% 26.13 87.5% -0.169 -0.3714 0.0
Blitz 0 2802 26.84% 33.85 80.98% -0.203 0.0541 -0.049
Dahan Insurrection 4 2527 23.56% 61.06 78.04% -0.679 -0.2656 0.701
Despicable Theft 2 128 35.94% 36.6 73.44% 0.279 0.7247 0.03
Elemental Invocation 1 390 48.97% 30.75 61.54% -0.78 -0.294 -1.313
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9695 11.54% 45.04 77.04% -0.672 -0.3664 0.36
Powers Long Forgotten 1 869 43.14% 37.52 70.54% -0.306 -0.1246 -0.858
Rituals of Terror 3 1302 35.0% 46.98 78.26% 0.203 0.3246 0.973
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 466 58.53% 38.18 72.75% -0.019 0.3963 0.081
Second Wave 0 6611 34.23% 30.3 80.61% -0.611 -0.045 -0.02
The Great River 3 245 41.15% 34.84 71.43% 0.04 1.4373 -1.238
Varied Terrains 2 82 37.8% 29.63 75.61% -0.926 -0.4 -0.799
Ward the Shores 2 1040 32.97% 36.35 69.52% -0.978 0.1842 -0.551

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 65128 30.27% 28.16 76.35% 0.103 1.1191 -0.113
1 Thematic 4438 36.97% 35.0 68.23% 0.583 1.7555 -0.337
2 Archipelago 36 22.22% 32.36 86.11% 0.227 1.2107 0.628
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 50216 38.72% 32.04 79.13% 0.148 0.8989 0.356
2 Coastline 7341 32.27% 31.0 82.65% 0.032 0.6345 0.271
2 Fragment 1468 40.77% 28.2 77.32% 1.235 1.6824 0.745
2 Heart 1390 19.65% 26.47 88.92% 0.904 1.4426 0.101
2 Opposite Shores 9538 36.48% 31.58 78.06% -0.08 0.9118 -0.509
2 Thematic 3744 43.91% 38.02 67.92% -0.01 0.6887 0.046
2 Top to Top 1466 35.69% 32.27 79.88% 0.037 0.5469 0.223
3 Archipelago 46 28.26% 33.78 89.13% -0.098 0.0756 -0.314
3 Coastline 189 38.2% 34.74 79.37% 0.467 -0.3162 0.192
3 Other 1296 35.58% 31.96 79.86% -0.838 -0.8742 0.278
3 Round (Default) 28509 32.92% 34.15 81.35% 0.019 0.6134 0.147
3 Sunrise 110 33.68% 33.05 90.0% 0.0 0.0368 1.175
3 Thematic 1120 40.4% 42.73 71.16% 0.309 0.2716 -0.06
4 Archipelago 60 39.29% 34.38 80.0% 0.067 -0.6442 -0.527
4 Coastline 140 21.9% 35.01 75.71% -0.303 -0.1864 0.181
4 Leaf 147 38.89% 36.38 75.51% 0.278 0.8401 -0.416
4 Other 1064 34.49% 38.77 82.99% 0.652 0.398 0.558
4 Reverse Snake 8 28.57% 32.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 5780 25.34% 55.51 77.32% -0.331 0.1986 0.228
4 Trapezoid (Default) 23928 27.82% 36.53 82.98% 0.058 0.0305 0.001
5 Archipelago 21 57.14% 38.38 76.19% -0.006 -0.5847 -0.67
5 Coastline 11 0.0% 31.36 100.0% 0.069 -0.4956 0.163
5 Other 580 31.28% 39.82 89.83% -0.067 0.101 0.606
5 Thematic 148 29.05% 55.51 82.43% -0.467 -0.7437 0.562
6 Archipelago 42 30.56% 36.0 88.1% 0.088 -0.1676 -1.37
6 Coastline 22 28.57% 30.45 95.45% -0.331 -0.9203 -0.566
6 Other 195 24.47% 41.26 77.44% -0.609 0.2009 -0.968
6 Star 117 34.48% 37.78 64.1% -0.956 -0.1723 -0.959
6 Thematic 466 21.98% 42.74 81.55% -1.046 -1.3251 -0.448
6 Two Centers (Default) 581 20.71% 42.21 88.47% -0.132 -0.226 -0.509
7 Archipelago 12 33.33% 60.42 83.33% -0.126 -0.7037 -0.745
7 Other 6 0.0% 45.33 100.0% 0.369 -0.7834 0.037

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4531 32.64 56.65% -1.791 0.1122 -0.535
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4478 33.75 60.18% -1.401 0.329 -0.451
All Things Weaken 1773 33.33 54.54% -1.901 0.0842 -0.599
Back Against the Wall 4371 33.03 54.79% -2.113 -0.2962 -0.635
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4396 29.8 52.57% -1.47 0.5807 -0.757
Downward Spiral 12872 25.74 56.18% -2.285 -0.2918 -0.583
Erosion of Will 4504 30.85 52.73% -2.091 -0.0075 -0.692
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 910 37.65 77.36% 0.944 1.3855 -0.027
Memory Fades to Dust 12764 25.46 53.06% -2.439 -0.3546 -0.699
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1663 31.67 54.96% -1.92 0.0181 -0.604
Promising Farmlands 4446 29.83 53.31% -2.071 -0.0246 -0.904
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 600 37.57 81.67% -0.683 -0.2582 0.024
Thriving Communities 1777 31.24 52.62% -1.965 0.0183 -0.818
Tipping Point 2082 30.19 53.65% 0.0 -0.1175 -0.716
Unnatural Proliferation 1837 33.21 55.69% -1.727 0.2372 -0.567
Untended Land Crumbles 1822 31.42 52.91% -1.855 0.1383 -0.512

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 77538 32.08% 32.47 80.63% 0.243 1.0406 0.024
B 81147 32.18% 32.7 80.51% 0.245 0.9888 -0.072
C 78948 32.83% 32.57 80.24% 0.206 0.7748 -0.054
D 74386 32.9% 32.23 80.19% -0.076 0.72 -0.042
E 18256 35.26% 35.44 79.31% 0.028 0.6748 -0.152
F 27820 33.5% 34.79 80.37% 0.109 0.8336 0.017
G 25525 32.92% 34.53 80.44% -0.182 0.5498 -0.145
H 25475 33.02% 34.47 80.63% 0.052 0.7645 -0.067
East 12967 32.6% 46.57 73.49% 0.383 1.1517 -0.631
Northeast 9340 30.47% 49.19 74.74% -0.602 0.2577 0.009
Northwest 7983 30.59% 49.57 73.72% -0.522 0.5551 0.341
Southeast 2156 29.08% 43.98 77.97% -0.194 0.5124 -0.633
Southwest 1991 29.59% 43.03 78.45% -0.17 0.9551 -1.305
West 11822 33.47% 46.63 72.38% -0.472 0.4824 -1.143

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13606 0.0% 20.45 74.83% -2.236 -0.1069 0.485
Not Using Events or Tokens 58018 29.6% 25.91 79.99% -0.013 0.1617 -0.505
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8590 8.64% 40.38 92.4% 0.611 0.4686 0.428
Start of Game Growth 12058 10.94% 40.19 90.72% 0.411 -0.3493 0.13
Unlimited Undo 21856 23.67% 34.87 86.4% 0.826 0.2223 0.679
Using Tokens but Not Events 22027 22.72% 32.76 84.32% 0.343 0.1867 -0.076

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 6885 100.0% 31.69 100.0% -0.574 -0.4782 -0.327
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 5234 100.0% 33.48 100.0% -0.015 -0.1759 -0.421
Downpour Drenches the World 403 100.0% 40.85 100.0% -0.135 0.1178 0.306
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5447 100.0% 34.66 100.0% 0.196 -0.2418 -0.286
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4759 100.0% 33.81 100.0% -0.422 -0.9098 -0.706
Finder of Paths Unseen 186 100.0% 42.85 100.0% 0.722 1.0857 1.088
Fractured Days Split the Sky 2246 100.0% 49.19 100.0% 0.561 0.617 0.51
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 755 100.0% 36.47 100.0% 0.078 0.0462 -0.115
Heart of the Wildfire 13920 100.0% 38.87 100.0% 0.257 0.4317 0.075
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 21744 100.0% 38.1 100.0% -0.112 -0.5685 -0.153
Lightning's Swift Strike 22046 107.18% 31.98 102.04% -0.123 0.1513 -0.563
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 109 25.23% 37.12 89.91% 0.496 -0.2807 0.338
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 952 33.47% 39.53 82.35% -0.17 -0.8127 0.373
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1300 32.61% 40.77 79.23% 0.379 0.1128 -0.068
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 4090 100.0% 37.1 100.0% -0.122 -0.3887 -0.152
Many Minds Move as One 1831 100.0% 35.53 100.0% 0.362 -0.2412 0.107
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 23845 100.0% 40.27 100.0% 0.591 0.4061 0.37
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 5895 100.0% 36.91 100.0% -0.208 -0.1868 0.307
River Surges in Sunlight 21224 105.28% 37.56 101.46% -0.213 -0.2475 0.331
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1422 26.35% 41.31 79.4% -0.29 0.1408 -0.482
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 118 23.48% 42.64 86.44% -0.079 -0.3795 0.105
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 23905 100.0% 38.39 100.0% 0.314 0.2611 0.082
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6915 109.15% 28.73 102.62% -0.073 0.3368 -0.472
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 49 18.75% 33.14 89.8% -0.118 -0.1114 0.774
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 59 28.81% 32.37 93.22% 0.533 0.1859 0.953
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 474 35.88% 34.52 80.38% 0.029 0.0478 -0.496
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 432 40.8% 32.82 81.71% 0.61 0.7933 -0.014
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 10016 100.0% 36.45 100.0% 0.179 -0.1078 0.156
Shifting Memory of Ages 1629 100.0% 38.32 100.0% 0.134 0.2093 -0.348
Shroud of Silent Mist 1703 100.0% 33.81 100.0% -0.516 -0.28 0.285
Starlight Seeks its Form 1426 100.0% 40.5 100.0% -0.528 -0.6675 0.123
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 5842 100.0% 37.93 100.0% -0.393 -0.5745 -0.108
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3892 100.0% 36.46 100.0% -0.32 -0.1351 0.327
Thunderspeaker 16259 100.0% 32.03 100.0% -0.529 -0.4643 -0.426
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 2536 100.0% 33.68 100.0% 0.197 0.1066 -0.421
Vital Strength of the Earth 16836 103.33% 32.27 101.21% -0.399 0.4093 -0.338
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 160 23.27% 41.44 88.75% 0.516 0.9026 0.409
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 691 35.91% 35.38 73.23% -0.188 0.9867 -0.537
Volcano Looming High 2647 100.0% 34.75 100.0% -0.32 -0.3245 -0.319

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.63%
Gift of Proliferation 78.4%
Overgrow in a Night 81.75%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.68%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 26788 22.56 26.43%
II 83706 30.98 79.83%
III 74552 34.53 89.44%
IV 24345 37.77 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7074
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 65274
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 64194
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24056
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3785
Lose: Adversary condition 14307
Win: Sacrifice victory 451
Lose: Scenario condition 2864
Win: Scenario condition 3754
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22757
Lose: Spirit destroyed 875

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.742 Win Model: -0.195

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.377 Win Model: 0.4
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 69719 30.76% 28.61 75.82%
2 75488 37.7% 32.05 78.98%
3 31265 33.28% 34.59 81.04%
4 31225 27.59% 39.98 81.89%
5 281 25.97% 34.11 86.12%
6 1413 22.59% 41.65 83.09%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)