Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2759 27.97% 33.72 0.267 80.61% -0.047 0.5299
Dahan Insurrection 4 2654 27.0% 59.97 11.334 76.49% -0.135 0.2657
Despicable Theft 2 8 25.0% 29.38 -0.993 62.5% -1.343 -0.9143
Elemental Invocation 1 97 39.18% 30.54 -1.394 77.32% -0.444 -0.0627
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10488 11.87% 43.34 3.377 75.42% -0.696 -0.3301
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1060 41.19% 38.62 1.935 74.53% -0.367 0.0749
Rituals of Terror 3 1322 37.15% 41.2 5.259 77.31% -0.17 0.458
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 601 62.31% 37.76 3.332 72.05% -0.182 0.4679
Second Wave 0 6926 36.08% 30.62 -0.457 79.83% -0.416 -0.0
The Great River 3 100 38.0% 33.81 1.307 74.0% -1.102 0.3692
Ward the Shores 2 1299 35.21% 37.1 1.351 67.13% -0.963 0.0735

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 48033 30.38% 28.07 -0.99 76.04% -2.162 -1.8033
1 Thematic 3451 37.62% 35.55 0.921 67.37% -2.011 -1.5077
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 36821 38.94% 32.0 0.123 78.85% -0.866 -0.6706
2 Coastline 5175 32.26% 31.07 -0.343 83.05% -0.791 -0.6487
2 Fragment 1075 38.25% 27.48 -1.564 76.84% -1.22 -0.7972
2 Heart 1211 16.34% 26.28 -1.085 90.26% -0.634 -0.3419
2 Opposite Shores 6686 36.62% 31.91 -0.351 78.01% -0.946 -0.7211
2 Thematic 2951 44.77% 37.92 1.111 66.99% -0.899 -0.8544
2 Top to Top 1041 34.27% 32.21 0.11 80.21% -0.879 -0.7451
3 Coastline 115 32.11% 35.53 0.494 80.87% -0.111 -0.1445
3 Other 910 38.78% 31.3 -1.001 77.14% -0.451 -0.0352
3 Round (Default) 21453 32.56% 34.02 0.105 81.16% 0.034 0.0726
3 Sunrise 73 30.43% 34.01 0.207 89.04% 0.484 0.2611
3 Thematic 856 40.78% 41.77 1.942 70.44% 0.025 -0.332
4 Coastline 83 18.29% 35.14 -1.018 72.29% 0.1 0.258
4 Leaf 114 40.18% 36.85 0.091 77.19% 0.76 0.7878
4 Other 778 34.07% 40.14 1.23 81.62% 0.7 0.813
4 Reverse Snake 7 33.33% 33.57 -0.146 100.0% 0.724 -0.0642
4 Snake 7 28.57% 39.14 2.338 100.0% 1.008 1.1321
4 Thematic 4452 26.36% 53.15 4.63 74.91% 1.191 0.1047
4 Trapezoid (Default) 18115 27.89% 36.26 0.316 82.85% 0.899 0.8822
5 Other 215 33.8% 41.7 2.165 93.49% 2.16 1.9411
5 Thematic 51 29.41% 66.18 10.701 96.08% 2.965 0.1376

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3452 32.63 -1.813 56.26% -1.841 0.2289
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3438 33.46 -1.316 59.66% -1.75 0.1686
All Things Weaken 933 32.54 -1.849 54.13% -1.861 0.2941
Back Against the Wall 3336 32.75 -1.875 54.44% -1.988 0.1077
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3389 29.47 -3.377 52.35% -2.033 0.1905
Downward Spiral 9871 25.75 -3.64 56.6% -2.062 -0.0456
Erosion of Will 3468 30.77 -2.625 52.39% -2.058 0.1513
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 472 37.03 0.357 73.52% -0.917 -0.213
Memory Fades to Dust 9678 25.55 -3.722 53.19% -2.222 -0.007
Power Corrodes the Spirit 918 31.25 -2.358 54.79% -1.901 0.1188
Promising Farmlands 3454 29.71 -3.135 53.36% -2.018 0.1948
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 312 37.41 0.583 79.49% -0.648 -0.2129
Thriving Communities 990 30.69 -2.635 51.41% -2.014 0.0837
Tipping Point 2081 30.19 -2.929 53.63% -1.995 0.2233
Unnatural Proliferation 995 32.39 -1.754 55.28% -1.942 0.1353
Untended Land Crumbles 986 30.74 -2.736 51.42% -2.047 0.0514

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 28426 31.77% 31.05 -0.273 79.7% 0.275 -0.8147
B 29764 31.0% 31.19 -0.295 79.86% 0.266 -0.9193
C 29074 34.28% 30.79 -0.428 78.38% 0.237 -1.1776
D 27394 34.29% 30.63 -0.497 78.18% 0.221 -0.9561
E 3968 36.25% 34.73 0.436 77.04% 0.253 -1.0244
F 8308 33.96% 34.31 0.441 78.88% 0.343 -0.9002
G 7684 32.85% 33.37 0.069 79.19% 0.261 -0.9698
H 7500 34.0% 32.97 0.042 79.27% 0.324 -0.9157
East 2571 40.36% 39.25 1.34 66.36% -0.479 -1.4293
Northeast 3689 30.14% 49.26 4.223 75.87% -0.175 -1.0646
Northwest 2028 30.7% 47.42 4.141 71.35% -0.012 -0.9767
Southeast 524 31.3% 40.02 0.723 75.95% -0.265 -1.2667
Southwest 324 36.11% 35.02 -0.9 71.3% -0.505 -1.1127
West 2419 42.58% 38.44 0.737 63.79% -0.666 -1.352

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9890 0.0% 20.4 -4.564 73.84% -1.937 0.1068
Not Using Events or Tokens 42246 30.04% 25.67 -2.417 79.81% -0.111 0.1075
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6222 8.83% 39.1 2.456 92.17% 0.629 -0.075
Start of Game Growth 8828 10.82% 39.34 2.419 90.86% 0.518 0.0635
Unlimited Undo 15917 24.07% 34.21 0.78 85.64% 0.351 -0.0611
Using Tokens but Not Events 16458 23.43% 32.08 -0.495 83.59% 0.034 -0.0137

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5383 43.75% 30.88 -1.301 75.7% -0.432 -0.1948
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3634 31.38% 33.88 -0.306 80.82% -0.114 -0.1994
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3572 27.19% 35.02 0.203 83.48% -0.037 -0.4021
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3272 29.38% 33.7 -0.656 77.96% -0.33 -0.5746
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1057 28.88% 46.17 4.226 83.35% 0.307 0.6522
Heart of the Wildfire 10884 49.7% 38.72 1.542 78.3% 0.299 0.6497
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 17241 29.53% 37.8 1.178 82.05% 0.085 -0.2148
Lightning's Swift Strike 18481 31.77% 32.32 -0.499 80.08% -0.228 0.0402
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1551 35.76% 37.4 1.009 84.27% 0.413 0.0932
Many Minds Move as One 1021 31.36% 35.62 0.435 83.55% 0.09 -0.43
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 17618 30.96% 40.29 2.338 81.52% 0.304 0.1098
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4075 28.44% 37.02 0.949 82.6% 0.095 0.1438
River Surges in Sunlight 16766 28.73% 37.2 1.106 81.09% -0.187 -0.0248
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 18390 32.09% 37.92 1.274 79.5% 0.041 0.1912
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6162 43.1% 29.64 -1.377 77.8% -0.323 0.1263
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 8337 27.72% 36.22 0.487 82.9% -0.072 -0.1395
Shroud of Silent Mist 123 24.39% 32.24 -0.158 90.24% 0.445 0.4006
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3720 37.01% 36.28 0.115 75.67% -0.278 -0.2973
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2732 28.86% 37.12 0.851 84.04% 0.107 0.3234
Thunderspeaker 12580 32.41% 32.21 -0.445 78.79% -0.364 -0.3062
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1730 51.08% 33.69 -0.816 75.26% -0.108 -0.088
Vital Strength of the Earth 13577 22.51% 32.16 -0.685 80.84% -0.421 0.4493
Volcano Looming High 800 45.81% 34.08 -0.489 77.0% -0.029 -0.0911

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fields Choked with Growth 80.59%
Gift of Proliferation 78.25%
Overgrow in a Night 81.79%
Stem the Flow of Fresh Water 82.69%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19979 22.34 25.85%
II 61725 30.75 79.74%
III 54304 34.26 89.23%
IV 17665 37.47 99.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3397
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32094
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31786
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11741
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2805
Lose: Adversary condition 10640
Win: Sacrifice victory 316
Lose: Scenario condition 2261
Win: Scenario condition 2899
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16922
Lose: Spirit destroyed 649

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.745 Win Model: -0.184

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.497 Win Model: -0.659
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 51545 30.9% 28.58 75.46%
2 55158 37.75% 32.04 78.79%
3 23362 33.1% 34.27 80.69%
4 23608 27.78% 39.6 81.29%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)