Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 57.14% 32.71 4.501 85.71% 0.12 0.33
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 11 27.27% 24.82 -7.516 54.55% -0.824 -0.3895
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 30.77% 38.62 5.056 76.92% -0.089 0.6431
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 53.0 11.339 100.0% 0.138 1.1963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 27.33 -10.005 33.33% -0.528 0.7662
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 62.0 12.385 100.0% 0.201 2.1418
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 44.44% 23.67 1.049 77.78% 0.212 0.3093
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 26.23 0.007 69.23% 0.135 0.0429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 11.11% 39.78 5.831 88.89% 0.189 0.1254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6 50.0% 47.33 -0.879 83.33% -0.05 0.2111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 33.33% 53.67 14.648 100.0% 0.462 0.525
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 66.0 20.225 100.0% 0.177 0.6212
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 29.67 -6.542 33.33% -0.186 1.0967
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 22.22% 22.78 -2.247 66.67% -0.229 -0.0538
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 0.0% 19.17 -1.239 33.33% -0.697 -0.4832
The Kingdom of England 2 4 14 14.29% 23.79 -1.505 50.0% -0.926 -0.1727
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 49.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5 40.0% 44.4 2.829 80.0% -0.308 0.7069
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2 100.0% 28.0 1.753 0.0% -0.582 1.4374
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7 14.29% 16.29 -1.246 42.86% -0.288 0.0651
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 7 42.86% 23.57 -1.558 57.14% -0.553 0.4161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 33 42.42% 22.79 -4.66 21.21% -1.318 -0.23
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6 83.33% 51.0 6.257 83.33% -0.189 1.1988
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 28.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2 0.0% 29.5 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 17 17.65% 25.53 3.037 88.24% 0.352 0.2651
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 12 25.0% 23.67 -11.939 58.33% -1.187 -0.7538
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 15 6.67% 32.6 2.245 73.33% -0.35 0.0539
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 37.5% 33.13 2.04 62.5% -0.312 0.0196
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 66.67% 59.17 12.489 100.0% 0.292 1.0315
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 9 55.56% 63.11 0.607 77.78% -0.613 0.664
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 24.33 1.557 100.0% 0.316 0.4659
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 60.0% 39.4 8.742 100.0% 0.557 0.5466
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 36.36% 29.36 3.741 72.73% 0.228 0.4604
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 50.0% 34.25 -13.987 75.0% -0.628 -0.2821
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 25 96.0% 27.2 18.065 16.0% 0.301 1.1062
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 0.0% 25.71 -6.87 71.43% -0.766 -0.7239
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 6 0.0% 22.33 -2.686 50.0% -0.609 -0.0059
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 25.0% 8.25 -7.653 25.0% -0.606 -0.3134
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 56.0 18.313 100.0% 0.504 1.6099
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.509 0.0% -0.32 1.1124
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 0.0% 0.0 -8.274 0.0% -0.813 1.144

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 6 50.0 24.67 83.33% -0.001 0.3556
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 246 32.11 27.58 78.86% 0.094 0.2545 -0.014
2 Coastline 86 24.42 26.13 88.37% 0.393 0.4536 0.209
2 Fragment 5 0.0 27.6 100.0% 0.236 0.1721
2 Heart 9 0.0 25.11 100.0% 0.056 -0.1818
2 Opposite Shores 138 22.46 24.89 93.48% 0.802 0.936
2 Thematic 51 21.57 30.16 70.59% -0.674 -0.0379 -0.176
2 Top to Top 14 7.14 27.71 100.0% 0.096 0.136
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Other 2 0.0 25.0 100.0% 0.582 0.692
3 Round (Default) 57 26.32 27.51 77.19% -0.157 -0.1982 0.441
3 Thematic 15 26.67 26.93 40.0% -0.386 -0.3498 -0.109
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 5 60.0 22.2 60.0% -0.153 -0.1704
4 Trapezoid (Default) 13 25.0 26.62 84.62% 0.014 -0.172 -0.121
5 Other 6 33.33 19.17 33.33% -0.642 -1.1506 0.059
5 Thematic 2 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.472 -0.8023 -0.08
6 Archipelago 1 0.0 26.0 100.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.117 -0.511
6 Thematic 22 40.91 22.5 31.82% 0.623 1.0219
6 Two Centers (Default) 6 33.33 32.83 83.33% 0.038 0.0813 0.191
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.051 -0.8239 -0.109

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 25.45 72.73% -0.425 -0.154 0.183
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 35.2 60.0% 1.195 1.2333 0.434
All Things Weaken 18 29.83 55.56% -0.592 -0.1315 0.048
Attenuated Essence 1 39.0 100.0% 0.343 0.5484
Back Against the Wall 15 29.4 53.33% -0.16 0.0023 -0.114
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 17.0 0.0% -0.247 0.1678
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 28.0 75.0% -0.233 0.0714
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 21.0 71.43% 0.357 0.884
Downward Spiral 13 29.08 84.62% 0.79 1.1431
Erosion of Will 8 20.63 75.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 34.5 100.0% 0.326 -0.1997 0.261
Memory Fades to Dust 12 21.08 50.0% -0.831 -0.35
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 33.92 75.0% 0.393 0.6979 0.336
Promising Farmlands 8 26.75 50.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 35.0 100.0% 0.292 0.4708
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 30.17 100.0% 0.406 -0.2719
The Border of Life and Death 1 29.0 100.0% 0.188 0.0586
Thriving Communities 10 21.4 50.0% 0.457 0.9499
Thriving Crops 3 46.33 100.0% 0.359 0.447
Unnatural Proliferation 13 25.69 69.23% 0.216 0.5125
Untended Land Crumbles 10 26.4 50.0% -0.262

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 209 24.52% 26.73 88.04% -0.091 0.7494 0.905
B 192 24.08% 27.72 85.94% -0.518 0.2603 0.631
C 206 22.82% 26.44 84.95% -0.353 0.3011 0.034
D 168 29.34% 25.18 82.14% -0.171 0.6281 -0.34
E 154 32.47% 26.17 74.03% -0.115 0.5134 -0.015
F 146 24.66% 26.75 84.93% -0.339 0.3806 0.511
G 140 41.01% 25.81 68.57% -0.043 0.6985 -0.576
H 132 18.94% 26.42 84.85% 0.272 0.9199 -0.466
East 85 30.59% 25.73 51.76% -0.464 0.1397 -0.189
Northeast 53 35.85% 25.75 47.17% -0.525 0.3557 -0.256
Northwest 45 31.11% 24.24 48.89% -0.122 0.5513 -0.176
Southeast 51 37.25% 27.04 47.06% 0.529 1.1653 -0.08
Southwest 37 32.43% 23.76 40.54% -0.315 0.85 -0.189
West 71 25.35% 24.38 50.7% -0.846 0.1185 -0.189

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.409 1.2927
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 26.8 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 19 5.26% 36.84 100.0% 0.655 0.1196
Start of Game Growth 20 10.0% 37.65 100.0% 0.655 0.3242
Unlimited Undo 36 5.71% 30.25 80.56% -0.296 -0.3176
Using Tokens but Not Events 82 8.64% 24.8 84.15% -0.404 -0.4575 -0.208

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 110 21.03 23.64%
II 283 31.04 86.22%
III 218 34.74 93.12%
IV 78 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.228 Win Model: -0.25
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 560 26.07% 26.71 83.75%
3 72 29.17% 28.04 73.61%
4 21 30.0% 25.76 71.43%
5 4 25.0% 10.75 25.0%
6 32 37.5% 22.81 40.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 26
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 203
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 244
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 77
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 62
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 28
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 42
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)