Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 25 12.0% 24.28 0.0 64.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 12 25.0% 30.83 0.0 66.67%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 10 50.0% 35.7 8.053 70.0% 0.148 0.7525
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 5 40.0% 21.2 0.0 40.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 6 33.33% 19.67 -6.663 33.33% -0.334 -0.0259
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 5 0.0% 61.2 -2.715 60.0% -0.253 0.9692
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 0.0% 0.0 -5.983 0.0% -0.248 1.8351
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 57 24.56% 25.47 5.458 63.16% 0.33 0.7337
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 43 16.28% 25.65 0.0 58.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 33 24.24% 26.58 4.421 51.52% 0.219 0.7556
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 20 35.0% 36.05 -6.14 45.0% -0.27 0.69
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 10 20.0% 19.3 -5.892 30.0% -0.253 0.8225
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 0.0% 0.0 -8.111 0.0% -0.249 1.2778
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 48.63 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 64 21.88% 22.94 -5.925 64.06% -0.511 -0.3494
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 64 35.94% 25.22 0.0 64.06%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 60 20.0% 31.35 8.839 71.67% 0.352 0.3007
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 32 37.5% 40.22 11.412 71.88% 0.118 0.4158
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 25 28.0% 39.88 0.0 64.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 0.0% 13.2 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 37.93% 47.17 0.0 51.72%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 48 18.75% 22.67 0.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 46 30.43% 18.43 0.0 39.13%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 44 20.45% 23.0 0.0 47.73%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 21 42.86% 24.62 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 35 31.43% 49.37 6.933 65.71% 0.275 1.2953
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 0.0% 30.78 -5.118 44.44% -0.195 1.2689
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 25.0% 35.4 0.0 30.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 39 23.08% 23.82 0.0 56.41%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 26.53% 17.18 -5.194 30.61% -0.528 0.1758
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 59 33.9% 29.0 0.0 35.59%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 23 56.52% 31.91 0.0 47.83%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 14 50.0% 25.07 0.0 28.57%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 33.33% 30.67 0.0 22.22%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 42 45.24% 55.17 0.0 52.38%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 60 16.67% 24.05 0.0 76.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 53 26.42% 23.96 6.718 58.49% 0.219 0.54
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 33 15.15% 26.67 0.0 54.55%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 42 52.38% 37.14 4.176 66.67% -0.025 0.0442
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 22 18.18% 30.91 -4.039 54.55% -0.271 0.2831
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 29 44.83% 60.07 0.0 75.86%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 49 59.18% 48.16 0.0 55.1%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 39 17.95% 22.69 -7.939 64.1% -0.407 -0.1387
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 36 25.0% 25.67 0.699 58.33% -0.15 -0.0676
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 44 34.09% 22.75 0.0 54.55%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 31 35.48% 20.0 -4.282 41.94% -0.192 0.0245
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11 27.27% 20.09 0.0 36.36%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12 25.0% 30.17 0.523 41.67% -0.295 0.1861
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 46 69.57% 38.26 -5.926 39.13% -0.672 0.0137
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 36 19.44% 23.56 0.0 63.89%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 32 31.25% 15.91 0.0 37.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 31 9.68% 14.16 0.0 32.26%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13 7.69% 24.69 4.15 46.15% 0.004 0.9907
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 41.18% 20.59 0.0 29.41%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 20.0% 10.2 -2.086 10.0% -0.095 1.2222
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 37.5% 7.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 29 34.48 26.03 79.31%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 841 26.4 23.02 66.94% 0.119 0.2305 0.105
2 Coastline 274 20.8 23.57 84.31% 0.255 0.1654 -0.061
2 Fragment 34 38.24 26.94 70.59% 0.271 -0.0673 0.429
2 Heart 24 29.17 26.58 87.5%
2 Opposite Shores 404 22.77 25.36 85.89% -0.069 -0.0327 -0.071
2 Thematic 249 20.48 23.81 54.62% -0.52 0.0088 -0.269
2 Top to Top 67 20.9 23.76 83.58% 0.434 0.2274
3 Archipelago 6 50.0 41.0 100.0%
3 Coastline 3 66.67 13.0 33.33% 0.363
3 Other 14 28.57 27.14 78.57% 0.272 -0.4702
3 Round (Default) 334 25.15 31.87 64.67% 0.011 -0.0847 0.121
3 Sunrise 5 0.0 47.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 59 28.81 19.07 35.59% -0.15 0.0921
4 Archipelago 3 66.67 30.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 3 66.67 59.67 100.0%
4 Other 2 50.0 24.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 18 44.44 21.28 50.0% -0.083
4 Trapezoid (Default) 74 34.25 28.04 63.51% -0.916 -1.105 -0.45
5 Other 27 25.93 14.41 33.33% -0.095
5 Thematic 8 0.0 7.38 12.5%
6 Archipelago 4 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 100.0%
6 Other 5 0.0 28.8 60.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 18.0 50.0%
6 Thematic 37 32.43 18.68 32.43%
6 Two Centers (Default) 31 19.35 14.16 41.94% 0.278 0.2544
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 5 20.0 4.2 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 24.54 50.0% -0.154
Aid From Lesser Spirits 44 31.27 61.36% 0.223 0.2362 -0.088
All Things Weaken 43 24.88 53.49%
Attenuated Essence 18 30.56 83.33% 0.219 0.366 0.503
Back Against the Wall 32 30.63 62.5% 0.127 0.256 -0.1
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 27 28.04 74.07% 0.293
Burn Brightest Before the End 20 32.7 80.0% -0.053
Disintegrating Ecosystem 37 25.54 64.86% -0.212
Downward Spiral 38 32.71 76.32% 0.271 0.4648
Erosion of Will 35 22.0 54.29% -0.399 -0.061 -0.459
Intensifying Exploitation 18 30.17 38.89%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 27.53 76.47%
Memory Fades to Dust 39 22.38 56.41% -0.15 0.1794
Power Corrodes the Spirit 45 33.04 68.89% 0.234 0.5009 -0.127
Promising Farmlands 36 33.33 80.56%
Shattered Fragments of Power 28 30.04 78.57% 0.237 0.2366
Slow Dissolution of Will 10 23.9 70.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 28.0 83.33%
The Border of Life and Death 7 24.0 71.43%
Thriving Communities 31 25.42 70.97% 0.104 0.3814
Thriving Crops 14 31.36 64.29% 0.303 0.2078
Unnatural Proliferation 38 32.61 71.05% 0.118 0.3231 0.219
Untended Land Crumbles 28 27.64 53.57% 0.297 0.5965

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 851 22.47% 24.96 74.27% 0.408 1.4 0.169
B 778 25.23% 25.48 71.72% -0.293 0.5718 -0.245
C 732 25.68% 24.99 71.86% -0.005 0.7467 0.238
D 663 24.92% 25.69 71.49% 0.709 1.6541 0.083
E 576 25.87% 25.31 65.63% -0.409 0.3457 -0.038
F 575 24.87% 25.15 68.17% -0.109 0.7659 -0.562
G 501 30.2% 25.66 64.67% 0.329 1.1917 0.185
H 530 24.53% 23.85 67.17% 0.239 1.0466 0.15
East 311 24.76% 21.75 46.95% -0.325 0.4203 -0.2
Northeast 191 24.08% 21.41 44.5% -0.152
Northwest 156 21.15% 21.06 46.79% -0.069
Southeast 135 29.63% 22.03 45.93% -0.15 0.8588
Southwest 124 25.81% 17.78 39.52% -0.345 0.8122 -0.168
West 283 23.32% 20.74 46.64% -0.67 0.3129 -0.284

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 24 12.5% 14.75 50.0% -0.113
Skip Initial Invader Actions 100 12.0% 54.53 83.0% 0.132 -0.6729 0.521
Start of Game Growth 110 14.55% 53.38 80.0% 0.132 -0.4347 0.521
Unlimited Undo 122 7.44% 20.55 52.46% -0.332 -0.3046
Using Tokens but Not Events 238 16.03% 21.53 69.75% 0.192 0.1646 0.403

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 685 12.25 9.2%
II 814 29.91 84.4%
III 776 34.94 93.94%
IV 289 38.9 99.65%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.173 Win Model: 0.25
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1974 24.32% 23.7 71.83%
3 382 27.75% 32.45 65.97%
4 98 29.9% 23.39 58.16%
5 28 21.43% 11.32 28.57%
6 82 24.39% 17.28 39.02%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 63
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 726
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 687
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 287
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 570
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 91
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Blight pool ran out 119
Lose: Spirit destroyed 9

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)