Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 6 16.67% 18.17 -0.789 50.0% -0.174 -0.1822
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 5 0.0% 29.8 2.204 60.0% -0.247 -0.625
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 49.0 9.983 100.0% 0.184 0.1649
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 100.0% 22.5 0.181 50.0% 0.119 0.0088
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 32 31.25% 24.16 -2.329 62.5% -0.187 0.2246
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 33 15.15% 24.79 -2.004 57.58% -0.748 -0.386
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 29 24.14% 25.69 11.65 48.28% 0.31 0.7963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 17 35.29% 38.94 -0.936 47.06% -0.944 0.0516
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 22.22% 21.44 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 44 31.82% 25.45 0.179 72.73% -0.255 -0.0661
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 48 31.25% 25.9 3.17 62.5% 0.099 0.1085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 38 15.79% 32.95 4.097 76.32% 0.046 0.104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 22 36.36% 38.45 0.0 68.18%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 21 33.33% 40.05 9.54 61.9% -0.103 0.2257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 22.0 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 37.5% 47.19 0.0 56.25%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 34 26.47% 23.5 0.524 70.59% -0.206 0.095
The Kingdom of England 1 3 37 24.32% 17.16 -3.293 35.14% -0.381 -0.0538
The Kingdom of England 2 4 32 21.88% 21.91 -3.329 46.88% -0.126 0.4522
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 42.11% 23.37 4.766 31.58% -0.354 0.743
The Kingdom of England 4 7 31 29.03% 51.48 8.638 67.74% 0.023 1.0629
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8 0.0% 34.63 -7.488 50.0% -0.402 1.3911
The Kingdom of England 6 11 17 29.41% 41.65 0.749 35.29% -0.396 1.503
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 33 21.21% 22.52 8.751 51.52% 0.238 0.6831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 36 27.78% 18.14 -2.259 30.56% -0.737 0.0421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 53 33.96% 27.4 7.819 30.19% -0.045 1.1927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 13 84.62% 47.08 0.0 76.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 58.33% 24.0 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 50.0% 23.0 -6.059 0.0% -0.358 0.6628
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 47.37% 56.37 -4.836 52.63% -0.425 1.0109
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 51 17.65% 24.35 2.688 78.43% 0.29 0.5538
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 41 24.39% 23.63 -7.157 58.54% -0.716 -0.3708
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 26 15.38% 26.12 -5.202 57.69% -0.321 -0.0303
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 21 47.62% 32.29 2.808 57.14% 0.106 0.2221
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 14 14.29% 30.43 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 26 42.31% 65.58 17.843 84.62% 0.296 0.916
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 37 56.76% 52.81 22.453 62.16% 0.099 1.1455
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 23 13.04% 21.43 7.16 69.57% 0.309 0.5801
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 26 30.77% 26.35 0.0 65.38%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 35 34.29% 26.17 4.479 62.86% 0.477 0.743
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 22 40.91% 19.95 0.0 40.91%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 20.0% 3.0 -2.766 0.0% -0.479 0.2852
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 8 12.5% 31.0 -3.93 37.5% -0.177 0.9858
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 40 77.5% 42.6 0.0 42.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 25 24.0% 24.92 -1.915 68.0% 0.13 0.3413
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 25 24.0% 13.52 -7.217 32.0% -0.948 -0.2314
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 15.79% 13.47 -8.758 31.58% -0.548 -0.316
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11 9.09% 24.18 -9.119 45.45% -0.365 0.5439
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 54.55% 17.36 -2.063 18.18% -0.391 0.8203
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 33.33% 17.0 0.0 16.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 18 38.89 25.17 77.78% -0.395 0.2824
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 633 26.54 23.38 67.77% -0.577 -0.5089 -0.354
2 Coastline 210 20.48 23.81 84.29% 0.041 -0.1776 0.246
2 Fragment 26 30.77 28.38 69.23% 0.468 0.2011 0.184
2 Heart 18 27.78 30.5 100.0% 0.503 0.0331 0.346
2 Opposite Shores 318 21.07 25.8 88.05% 0.394 0.3722 0.02
2 Thematic 182 23.63 22.67 53.85% -0.552 -0.1788 -0.289
2 Top to Top 50 22.0 24.62 82.0% 0.084 -0.173 -0.261
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 39.67 100.0%
3 Coastline 2 100.0 19.5 50.0%
3 Other 11 36.36 22.09 72.73% 0.149 -0.6146
3 Round (Default) 244 29.1 34.93 66.8% -0.071 -0.2239 0.256
3 Sunrise 2 0.0 44.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 40 25.0 20.23 37.5% -0.039 -0.1862 -0.111
4 Archipelago 3 66.67 30.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 3 66.67 59.67 100.0% 0.162
4 Other 1 100.0 26.0 100.0% 0.113 -0.5718 0.333
4 Thematic 12 50.0 22.33 50.0% 0.319 0.1414 -0.048
4 Trapezoid (Default) 39 34.21 31.26 76.92% -0.042 -0.3711 -0.208
5 Other 15 26.67 15.07 26.67% 0.001
5 Thematic 7 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.06
6 Archipelago 3 0.0 8.67 33.33% -0.502 -1.4731
6 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 100.0%
6 Other 3 0.0 17.0 33.33% 0.178 -0.2389
6 Star 2 0.0 18.0 50.0%
6 Thematic 33 30.3 17.79 30.3% 0.048 -0.0004 -0.075
6 Two Centers (Default) 23 21.74 14.83 39.13% -0.098 0.1167 -0.058
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.083

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 21 26.95 52.38% -0.442 -0.37 0.424
Aid From Lesser Spirits 31 29.94 51.61% -1.093 -1.1644 -0.112
All Things Weaken 32 25.97 53.13% -0.194 0.0653 0.176
Attenuated Essence 10 29.2 80.0% 0.816 0.78
Back Against the Wall 25 34.92 68.0% 0.783 0.8366 0.098
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 30.35 80.0% -0.05 0.0959 0.201
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 30.43 78.57% 0.433 0.4494 -0.684
Disintegrating Ecosystem 27 23.78 66.67% -0.533 -0.3453 -0.09
Downward Spiral 32 34.19 71.88% -0.652 -0.5773 0.728
Erosion of Will 28 21.54 64.29% -0.173 -0.0179
Intensifying Exploitation 16 29.81 37.5% 0.136 0.2723 -0.65
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 27.53 76.47% 0.336 -0.2784 -0.187
Memory Fades to Dust 29 23.72 51.72% -0.703 -0.4993 0.45
Power Corrodes the Spirit 34 31.94 64.71% -0.911 -0.7358 0.74
Promising Farmlands 26 37.27 80.77% 0.163 0.361 0.754
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 30.12 70.59% 0.441 0.4435 0.305
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 22.4 80.0% 0.211 0.5091
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 28.0 88.89%
The Border of Life and Death 5 27.8 80.0% 0.409 -0.0892
Thriving Communities 28 24.57 67.86% 0.158 0.3141
Thriving Crops 10 31.9 50.0% 0.19 -0.1216 -0.548
Unnatural Proliferation 29 32.66 68.97% 1.081
Untended Land Crumbles 22 28.27 50.0% 0.251 0.4332 -0.255

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 629 22.29% 25.84 75.68% -0.122 0.8537 0.916
B 567 25.27% 26.86 73.9% -0.311 0.578 0.349
C 548 25.55% 25.55 73.54% -0.002 0.6902 0.881
D 471 25.11% 25.75 72.4% -0.524 0.3714 0.086
E 424 28.07% 26.18 66.27% -0.284 0.4449 -0.027
F 419 26.73% 27.32 71.84% -0.059 0.7721 0.06
G 373 33.6% 27.61 66.76% 0.158 0.9378 0.315
H 392 25.26% 23.89 68.88% 0.169 0.9517 -1.223
East 225 26.22% 20.8 45.78% -0.494 0.3158 -0.253
Northeast 138 26.09% 20.48 42.03% 0.121 0.9189 -0.363
Northwest 124 21.77% 19.44 43.55% 0.812 1.5453 -0.452
Southeast 102 29.41% 21.44 45.1% -0.536 0.3573 -0.226
Southwest 96 26.04% 16.83 38.54% 0.182 1.4395 -0.155
West 218 24.31% 19.79 45.41% 0.259 1.2566 -0.403

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 19 15.79% 15.21 52.63% 0.224 0.6446 -0.048
Skip Initial Invader Actions 89 13.48% 55.61 83.15% 0.293 -0.4761 0.984
Start of Game Growth 99 16.16% 54.62 80.81% 0.293 -0.1449 1.128
Unlimited Undo 88 6.9% 23.09 56.82% -0.448 -0.5135 -0.168
Using Tokens but Not Events 182 14.92% 21.84 68.68% 0.75 0.7067 -0.574

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 488 13.76 11.27%
II 642 30.19 84.89%
III 561 34.82 93.23%
IV 215 38.63 99.53%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.326 Win Model: -0.094
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1486 24.36% 24.03 73.08%
3 280 31.07% 34.57 67.5%
4 55 33.33% 25.36 65.45%
5 20 15.0% 7.7 15.0%
6 65 26.15% 16.86 35.38%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 55
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 521
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 545
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 213
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 386
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 77
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 94
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)