Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 20 30.0% 24.6 2.007 65.0% 0.371 0.7543
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 26 15.38% 28.92 3.26 69.23% 0.769 1.0162
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 23 30.43% 26.0 -12.329 47.83% -0.752 0.1461
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 9 44.44% 43.56 -2.779 66.67% -0.192 0.7575
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 14.29% 19.71 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.537 0.0% -0.015 1.5608
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 24 29.17% 27.25 5.628 75.0% 0.701 0.9383
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 40 32.5% 23.8 -1.297 60.0% -0.002 0.085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 29 10.34% 33.41 4.492 79.31% 0.309 0.4495
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 19 31.58% 36.89 4.558 63.16% 0.317 0.5037
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10 30.0% 40.4 10.344 70.0% 0.267 0.6212
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 22.0 -4.42 33.33% -0.028 0.4402
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 45.0 0.0 54.55%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 31.82% 24.5 5.188 72.73% 0.804 1.1775
The Kingdom of England 1 3 24 16.67% 18.13 -0.314 37.5% -0.396 -0.0575
The Kingdom of England 2 4 26 19.23% 22.08 -0.384 46.15% -0.374 0.289
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 35.71% 21.0 -13.759 28.57% -0.593 0.5327
The Kingdom of England 4 7 22 31.82% 49.77 12.464 68.18% 0.485 1.7146
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 17.5 24.233 25.0% 0.446 2.0571
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 23.08% 49.23 -8.836 38.46% -0.268 1.7477
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 21 14.29% 21.05 -0.2 47.62% -0.015 0.4331
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 27 33.33% 17.41 -6.892 25.93% -0.462 0.2396
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 47 36.17% 26.89 -6.697 27.66% -0.914 0.0891
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 81.82% 45.64 7.474 72.73% 0.359 1.6356
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 44.44% 29.33 16.531 33.33% 0.33 1.7338
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 28.0 1.326 0.0% -0.395 0.5473
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 25 60.0% 57.28 10.283 52.0% 0.314 1.7494
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 37 16.22% 24.97 1.04 78.38% 0.013 0.2467
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 28 28.57% 21.64 0.608 53.57% 0.009 0.4887
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 21 9.52% 27.71 -4.223 61.9% -0.288 0.2739
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 16 43.75% 37.13 -7.613 62.5% -0.631 -0.219
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 25.0% 12.5 -9.444 25.0% -1.12 -0.4398
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 18 44.44% 62.0 13.646 83.33% 0.327 0.8566
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 29 62.07% 52.41 8.476 58.62% -0.501 0.5633
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 19 10.53% 20.74 1.139 68.42% 0.615 0.8472
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 16 31.25% 29.5 2.144 75.0% 0.021 0.084
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 22 27.27% 25.45 5.591 63.64% 0.081 0.2283
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19 36.84% 20.47 5.265 42.11% 0.185 0.5491
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 20.0% 10.8 -3.745 20.0% -0.255 0.7136
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 30 86.67% 34.43 12.199 26.67% 0.121 1.1763
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 16.67% 21.08 0.0 58.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 26.67% 21.53 -1.367 53.33% 0.256 1.1407
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 15.38% 16.0 -9.7 38.46% -0.84 -0.333
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 0.0% 27.63 -5.675 50.0% -0.297 0.7717
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 19.0 3.499 16.67% 0.134 1.0676
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 20.0% 6.2 -7.965 0.0% -0.313 1.098
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 13 46.15 25.0 76.92% 0.144 0.617
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 466 26.18 24.92 71.67% -0.473 -0.288 -0.051
2 Coastline 158 20.89 24.05 85.44% 0.794 0.7779 0.169
2 Fragment 15 26.67 25.13 60.0% 0.121 -0.195 0.033
2 Heart 12 8.33 30.33 100.0% 0.348
2 Opposite Shores 252 22.62 26.03 89.68% 0.03 -0.009 -0.129
2 Thematic 126 22.22 23.88 57.94% -0.67 -0.3831 -0.269
2 Top to Top 34 26.47 26.0 82.35% -0.024 -0.0676 -0.433
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 39.67 100.0% 0.157 -0.9826
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Other 7 14.29 22.71 71.43% -0.033 -0.496
3 Round (Default) 168 31.55 33.35 65.48% -0.461 -0.6807 0.077
3 Sunrise 2 0.0 44.0 100.0% 0.289 0.3646
3 Thematic 30 20.0 19.97 33.33% 0.364 0.0713 -0.031
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 32.5 100.0% 0.348 0.5409
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 8 37.5 13.88 37.5% -0.019 0.2339 -0.044
4 Trapezoid (Default) 31 36.67 30.19 80.65% -0.004 0.2099 -0.064
5 Other 12 25.0 12.92 25.0% -0.169 -0.7347 0.005
5 Thematic 6 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.105 -0.5258 -0.049
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 30 30.0 17.7 26.67% -0.07 0.0316 -0.082
6 Two Centers (Default) 16 18.75 17.75 43.75% -0.199 -0.4559 0.096
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.097

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 28.06 58.82% 0.403
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 34.21 58.33% 0.363
All Things Weaken 25 29.76 60.0% -0.507 -0.214 0.014
Attenuated Essence 7 32.14 71.43% 0.166 0.2492
Back Against the Wall 17 28.35 52.94% -0.261
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 37.5 90.0% 0.54 0.7433 0.264
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 25.78 66.67% -0.512
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 20.6 73.33%
Downward Spiral 27 37.3 77.78% 0.561 0.6889 0.913
Erosion of Will 20 20.1 65.0% -0.092 0.191
Intensifying Exploitation 12 34.17 25.0% -1.206 -0.9582 -0.578
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 28.67 80.0% -0.268
Memory Fades to Dust 23 27.3 60.87% 0.734 0.9706 0.502
Power Corrodes the Spirit 21 30.19 71.43% 0.261 0.4786 0.295
Promising Farmlands 21 39.76 80.95% 1.07 1.3644 0.597
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 28.0 61.54% -0.147 0.054 0.304
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 26.13 87.5%
The Border of Life and Death 3 33.33 66.67%
Thriving Communities 21 23.33 61.9% 0.869 1.208
Thriving Crops 6 34.17 50.0% -1.18 -1.2227 -0.401
Unnatural Proliferation 23 32.0 73.91% -0.007 0.1334 0.485
Untended Land Crumbles 18 30.11 50.0% -0.478 -0.029 -0.309

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 457 23.03% 26.69 78.77% 0.444 1.3058 0.954
B 407 25.12% 26.22 75.18% -0.276 0.5413 0.592
C 405 26.42% 25.87 75.56% -0.424 0.2547 0.833
D 342 26.39% 25.95 75.15% 0.583 1.3878 -0.167
E 312 29.17% 26.16 66.99% -0.001 0.6672 0.279
F 297 25.59% 27.48 73.4% 0.024 0.8221 0.241
G 287 33.22% 27.14 67.6% -0.124 0.7019 0.432
H 287 23.69% 24.05 70.03% 0.152 0.9247 -1.323
East 171 24.56% 20.92 46.2% -0.147 0.6987 -0.176
Northeast 105 25.71% 20.25 40.95% -0.246 0.5248 -0.346
Northwest 91 20.88% 17.66 38.46% -0.528 0.2793 -0.425
Southeast 84 27.38% 21.62 44.05% 0.266 1.1351 -0.131
Southwest 71 22.54% 17.25 36.62% -0.17 1.1113 -0.162
West 155 20.65% 19.23 43.87% -0.443 0.5527 -0.304

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 16.67% 16.83 58.33% -0.415 -0.0271 -0.044
Skip Initial Invader Actions 60 13.33% 51.55 80.0% 0.307 -0.3071 0.59
Start of Game Growth 68 17.65% 49.81 76.47% 0.666 0.0845 0.813
Unlimited Undo 67 3.03% 22.24 58.21% -0.388 -0.3444
Using Tokens but Not Events 157 15.38% 22.25 68.15% -0.383 -0.4412 -0.386

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 344 15.74 12.79%
II 479 30.48 86.22%
III 423 34.79 93.85%
IV 155 38.41 99.35%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.903 Win Model: -0.903
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1095 24.2% 24.97 76.16%
3 199 32.16% 32.72 65.33%
4 40 28.21% 22.35 65.0%
5 16 12.5% 5.19 12.5%
6 51 27.45% 17.14 31.37%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 44
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 413
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 153
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 256
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 60
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 67
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)