Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 12 16.67% 23.25 2.11 66.67% 0.539 1.025
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 8 12.5% 25.25 -1.504 50.0% -0.487 -0.4677
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 4 50.0% 32.5 2.532 75.0% 0.181 0.3348
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 66.67% 15.0 -5.362 33.33% -0.252 -0.1246
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 39 28.21% 22.44 -3.079 58.97% -0.388 0.0856
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 35 17.14% 23.37 -5.617 54.29% -0.412 -0.1208
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 31 22.58% 25.58 -1.943 48.39% -0.259 0.2833
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18 33.33% 40.06 19.651 50.0% 0.466 1.4115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 22.22% 21.44 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 48.63 -8.483 50.0% -0.261 1.5365
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 48 29.17% 24.96 -1.636 70.83% -0.342 -0.1196
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 50 30.0% 24.86 -3.345 60.0% -0.364 -0.3974
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 40 15.0% 32.4 6.251 75.0% 0.307 0.3203
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 25 32.0% 35.92 -0.07 64.0% -0.296 -0.0542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 22 31.82% 38.23 -10.529 59.09% -0.362 -0.1669
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 0.0% 16.5 -2.421 25.0% -0.16 0.218
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 17 41.18% 44.41 -9.367 52.94% -0.515 0.7253
The Kingdom of England 0 1 36 25.0% 22.97 -0.999 69.44% -0.307 0.0022
The Kingdom of England 1 3 41 31.71% 17.76 1.954 36.59% 0.17 0.4904
The Kingdom of England 2 4 34 20.59% 21.15 -3.549 44.12% -0.455 0.0239
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 42.11% 23.37 9.243 31.58% 0.094 1.134
The Kingdom of England 4 7 31 29.03% 51.48 17.36 67.74% 0.278 1.2776
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8 0.0% 34.63 -5.65 50.0% -0.265 1.2452
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 27.78% 39.33 -8.664 33.33% -0.349 1.494
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 33 21.21% 22.52 8.982 51.52% 0.139 0.5161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 39 30.77% 18.38 2.882 30.77% -0.033 0.8443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 54 35.19% 27.87 12.186 31.48% 0.46 1.6433
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 66.67% 39.61 -0.178 61.11% -0.888 0.2518
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 53.85% 27.0 16.777 30.77% 0.047 1.3566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 33.33% 30.67 6.279 22.22% -0.407 0.8655
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 40 47.5% 55.4 6.509 52.5% 0.01 1.4029
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 53 18.87% 24.68 2.469 79.25% 0.33 0.649
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 43 27.91% 22.95 -5.181 55.81% -0.822 -0.3334
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 26 15.38% 26.12 0.0 57.69%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 24 54.17% 34.63 4.623 62.5% 0.227 0.2547
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 15 13.33% 32.27 15.535 60.0% 0.081 0.5869
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 26 42.31% 65.58 0.0 84.62%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 39 58.97% 53.38 14.442 64.1% 0.306 1.3863
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 28 14.29% 21.07 0.487 67.86% 0.41 0.6523
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 29 27.59% 23.62 -7.02 58.62% -0.738 -0.704
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 38 34.21% 24.11 -4.248 57.89% -0.553 -0.3116
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 24 41.67% 22.29 11.002 45.83% 0.268 0.519
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 16.67% 12.17 2.341 16.67% -0.122 0.6321
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10 10.0% 30.5 4.15 40.0% -0.05 1.0482
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 42 73.81% 40.57 -7.464 40.48% -0.341 0.5553
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 30 20.0% 26.27 6.963 70.0% 0.505 0.7457
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 27 25.93% 13.81 -3.515 33.33% -0.278 0.4765
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 24 12.5% 12.46 -5.036 29.17% -0.758 -0.3906
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11 9.09% 24.18 -10.66 45.45% -0.476 0.6934
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 58.33% 20.5 2.458 25.0% -0.185 0.7713
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 25.0% 12.75 -5.19 12.5% -0.279 1.3021
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 18 38.89 25.17 77.78%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 682 26.83 23.38 67.3% -0.176 0.1015 -0.116
2 Coastline 222 20.27 23.86 84.68% 0.247 0.3498 -0.036
2 Fragment 28 32.14 27.21 67.86% -0.387 -0.3743 0.152
2 Heart 19 31.58 29.74 100.0% 0.224 0.3357 0.35
2 Opposite Shores 337 22.26 25.88 87.83% 0.677 1.013 0.037
2 Thematic 200 22.5 22.41 52.5% -0.305 0.3843 -0.292
2 Top to Top 50 22.0 24.62 82.0% 0.218 0.4602 -0.336
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 39.67 100.0%
3 Coastline 2 100.0 19.5 50.0%
3 Other 12 33.33 23.5 75.0% 0.324 -0.2778
3 Round (Default) 269 27.14 33.29 65.8% 0.049 0.0553 0.313
3 Sunrise 2 0.0 44.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 46 23.91 18.54 34.78% -0.385 -0.3009 -0.174
4 Archipelago 3 66.67 30.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 3 66.67 59.67 100.0% 0.208
4 Other 1 100.0 26.0 100.0% 0.441
4 Thematic 14 50.0 21.86 50.0% -0.226 0.042 -0.05
4 Trapezoid (Default) 46 33.33 29.35 73.91% -0.104 0.06 -0.22
5 Other 15 26.67 15.07 26.67% -0.014
5 Thematic 7 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.052
6 Archipelago 3 0.0 8.67 33.33%
6 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 100.0%
6 Other 3 0.0 17.0 33.33%
6 Star 2 0.0 18.0 50.0%
6 Thematic 34 32.35 18.94 32.35% 0.309 0.4115 -0.062
6 Two Centers (Default) 25 20.0 13.64 36.0% -0.283 0.282 -0.05
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 4 25.0 5.25 0.0% -0.16 -0.5946 -0.12

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 21 26.95 52.38% 0.435
Aid From Lesser Spirits 34 31.06 55.88% 0.716 0.5974 0.297
All Things Weaken 33 25.42 51.52% -0.545 -0.2082 0.066
Attenuated Essence 11 28.27 81.82% 0.228 0.2549
Back Against the Wall 27 33.15 66.67% -0.345 -0.3439 0.224
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 30.35 80.0% -0.248 -0.0307 0.184
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 32.94 82.35% 0.375 0.3568 -0.653
Disintegrating Ecosystem 28 23.36 64.29% -0.337 0.0566 -0.127
Downward Spiral 35 33.94 74.29% 0.819 0.9274 0.628
Erosion of Will 29 22.0 65.52% 0.188 0.54
Intensifying Exploitation 16 29.81 37.5% -0.728
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 27.53 76.47% -0.24
Memory Fades to Dust 31 22.19 48.39% -0.913 -0.6653 0.087
Power Corrodes the Spirit 39 34.46 69.23% 0.663 0.8853 1.397
Promising Farmlands 29 36.31 82.76% 0.519 0.8017 0.798
Shattered Fragments of Power 21 30.38 71.43% 0.536 0.6126 0.3
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 18.43 71.43% 0.11 0.507
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 27.9 90.0% 0.089 -0.6062
The Border of Life and Death 5 27.8 80.0%
Thriving Communities 29 24.52 68.97% 0.272 0.6282
Thriving Crops 10 31.9 50.0% -0.537
Unnatural Proliferation 30 32.43 70.0% 0.453 0.6148 1.131
Untended Land Crumbles 24 26.88 45.83% -0.989 -0.7573 -0.222

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 682 22.91% 25.73 75.66% 0.481 1.4862 0.715
B 604 24.54% 26.28 73.01% -0.045 0.8749 0.403
C 592 24.83% 25.06 72.64% -0.209 0.5259 0.993
D 506 24.75% 25.64 72.13% 0.311 1.2891 -0.005
E 456 28.07% 26.02 66.01% 0.015 0.8349 0.125
F 458 26.64% 26.55 70.31% -0.087 0.7872 0.054
G 394 32.82% 26.8 65.48% -0.783 0.0268 0.25
H 422 25.83% 23.55 67.77% -0.194 0.6206 -0.991
East 248 25.81% 20.54 44.76% 0.04 0.9428 -0.306
Northeast 151 25.83% 20.52 41.72% -0.33 0.4782 -0.356
Northwest 132 21.21% 19.36 43.18% -0.218 0.682 -0.435
Southeast 113 29.2% 21.11 44.25% -0.122 0.7282 -0.269
Southwest 108 25.93% 16.61 37.96% -0.591 0.7851 -0.172
West 236 23.73% 19.41 44.49% 0.403 1.3575 -0.396

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 20 15.0% 14.45 50.0% -0.164 0.2045 -0.05
Skip Initial Invader Actions 92 13.04% 54.48 82.61% 0.291 -0.2937 1.009
Start of Game Growth 102 15.69% 53.25 79.41% -0.378 -0.8921 1.137
Unlimited Undo 97 8.33% 22.25 54.64% -0.726 -0.8357 -0.323
Using Tokens but Not Events 193 14.58% 21.19 67.88% -0.352 -0.3773 -0.45

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 539 13.33 10.39%
II 681 30.1 85.02%
III 604 34.83 93.21%
IV 228 38.67 99.56%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.042 Win Model: -0.171
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1592 24.56% 23.93 72.42%
3 307 29.32% 33.08 66.45%
4 64 33.33% 24.44 64.06%
5 20 15.0% 7.7 15.0%
6 69 26.09% 16.71 34.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 56
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 561
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 579
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 226
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 435
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 80
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 100
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)