Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 21 28.57% 25.19 -0.286 66.67% 0.039 0.4053
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 28 17.86% 26.86 -1.424 64.29% -0.258 0.0573
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 23 30.43% 26.0 -10.47 47.83% -0.73 0.0365
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 9 44.44% 43.56 -5.813 66.67% -0.38 0.5773
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 25.0% 24.13 10.175 37.5% 0.281 1.5873
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 26 30.77% 26.08 1.565 73.08% 0.06 0.2748
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 40 32.5% 23.8 -1.767 60.0% -0.018 0.0911
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 13.33% 33.73 8.864 80.0% 0.719 0.7949
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 19 31.58% 36.89 9.507 63.16% 0.428 0.6096
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 15 33.33% 48.27 6.44 73.33% 0.316 0.7072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 22.0 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 45.0 0.0 54.55%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 23 30.43% 24.7 4.264 73.91% 0.409 0.8215
The Kingdom of England 1 3 25 16.0% 17.4 -1.734 36.0% -0.576 -0.2957
The Kingdom of England 2 4 28 21.43% 23.29 6.213 50.0% 0.396 0.975
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 35.71% 21.0 -12.56 28.57% -0.345 0.8093
The Kingdom of England 4 7 26 26.92% 55.58 9.954 73.08% 0.242 1.3317
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 17.5 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 23.08% 49.23 -7.628 38.46% -0.199 1.7829
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 26 19.23% 18.5 -3.16 42.31% -0.291 0.1737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 28 32.14% 16.79 -11.626 25.0% -0.768 -0.1132
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 48 37.5% 27.44 5.734 29.17% 0.187 1.1738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 81.82% 45.64 8.583 72.73% 0.205 1.5654
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 10 50.0% 28.8 -2.826 30.0% -0.165 1.1806
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 60.0% 27.6 0.817 0.0% -0.203 0.7751
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 28 57.14% 59.18 14.709 53.57% 0.133 1.555
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 40 17.5% 25.15 -0.254 80.0% 0.039 0.1775
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 30 26.67% 21.57 -0.899 53.33% -0.211 0.2115
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 22 13.64% 28.14 -0.242 63.64% -0.028 0.3571
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 17 41.18% 34.94 -9.181 58.82% -0.324 0.0641
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 25.0% 12.5 -9.21 25.0% -1.065 -0.3919
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 20 50.0% 61.5 7.484 85.0% 0.319 0.9539
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 31 58.06% 54.71 12.165 61.29% 0.13 1.1825
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 20 10.0% 20.9 3.013 70.0% 1.114 1.4168
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 18 33.33% 28.28 -0.683 72.22% -0.025 0.0421
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 22 27.27% 25.45 0.0 63.64%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19 36.84% 20.47 5.373 42.11% -0.138 0.2384
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 14.29% 35.43 5.499 42.86% -0.082 1.007
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 37 78.38% 41.27 9.111 37.84% 0.357 1.301
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 16.67% 21.08 0.0 58.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 26.67% 21.53 -8.229 53.33% -0.301 0.4935
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 15.38% 16.0 -5.964 38.46% -0.545 -0.0382
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 0.0% 27.63 -2.573 50.0% -0.134 0.8196
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 62.5% 21.63 0.894 25.0% -0.08 0.7971
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 33.33% 17.0 -0.288 16.67% -0.011 1.3601
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 0.0% 0.0 -13.274 0.0% -0.365 1.4551

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 13 46.15 25.0 76.92%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 486 25.72 24.62 70.99% -0.528 -0.2435 -0.105
2 Coastline 160 20.63 24.1 85.63% 0.703 0.7322 0.104
2 Fragment 18 22.22 32.17 66.67% 0.307 0.0699 0.186
2 Heart 12 8.33 30.33 100.0% 0.384
2 Opposite Shores 258 22.09 26.0 89.92% 0.488 0.547 -0.257
2 Thematic 133 23.31 23.7 57.89% -0.914 -0.5443 -0.285
2 Top to Top 37 27.03 25.62 81.08% -0.197 -0.0739 -0.372
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 39.67 100.0% 0.052 -0.7458
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Other 8 25.0 22.88 62.5% 0.034 -0.5033
3 Round (Default) 187 31.55 35.41 67.38% 0.152 0.0594 0.26
3 Sunrise 2 0.0 44.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 33 24.24 20.97 36.36% 0.559 0.0405 -0.029
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 32.5 100.0%
4 Leaf 2 50.0 50.5 100.0% 0.281 0.0695
4 Thematic 8 37.5 13.88 37.5% -0.146 -0.0132 -0.04
4 Trapezoid (Default) 31 36.67 30.19 80.65% -0.067 0.0397 0.004
5 Other 13 30.77 17.38 30.77% 0.231 -0.2832 -0.001
5 Thematic 6 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.139 -1.1214 -0.051
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Other 2 0.0 13.0 0.0% -0.203 0.432
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 30 30.0 17.7 26.67% -0.074
6 Two Centers (Default) 18 22.22 15.78 38.89% -0.345 -0.4488 0.022
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.088

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 28.06 58.82% 0.405
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 34.21 58.33% 0.44
All Things Weaken 27 27.56 55.56% -0.86 -0.4944 -0.008
Attenuated Essence 7 32.14 71.43% 0.281 0.2792
Back Against the Wall 20 34.35 60.0% 0.436 0.5009 -0.146
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 37.5 90.0% 0.313 0.5476 0.212
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 25.78 66.67% -0.547
Disintegrating Ecosystem 16 21.69 75.0% 0.124 0.4996
Downward Spiral 27 37.3 77.78% 0.25 0.3217 0.868
Erosion of Will 22 21.05 63.64% -0.398 -0.1413
Intensifying Exploitation 12 34.17 25.0% -0.57
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 28.67 80.0% -0.278
Memory Fades to Dust 24 26.17 58.33% -0.26 -0.0767 0.478
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23 32.96 73.91% 0.544 0.7567 0.304
Promising Farmlands 21 39.76 80.95% 0.512 0.8353 0.608
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 28.0 61.54% 0.341
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 26.13 87.5%
The Border of Life and Death 3 33.33 66.67%
Thriving Communities 23 24.91 65.22% 0.665 0.9889
Thriving Crops 8 32.5 37.5% -0.708 -0.7061 -0.604
Unnatural Proliferation 26 33.08 73.08% -0.022 0.1646 0.528
Untended Land Crumbles 19 30.47 52.63% 0.177 0.5166 -0.3

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 478 23.06% 27.23 78.66% 0.829 1.6916 0.955
B 434 25.17% 26.95 74.42% -0.332 0.4893 0.639
C 420 26.67% 25.82 75.0% -0.196 0.5021 0.792
D 360 26.46% 25.64 74.17% -0.159 0.6971 -0.279
E 334 28.74% 27.34 67.37% 0.433 1.1218 0.388
F 314 26.11% 27.66 72.93% -0.305 0.5131 -0.087
G 309 33.12% 28.5 67.64% -0.632 0.2484 0.422
H 301 24.25% 24.48 70.43% 0.367 1.1477 -1.281
East 177 25.42% 20.97 46.33% 0.115 0.9075 -0.166
Northeast 108 26.85% 20.18 40.74% -0.51 0.3709 -0.344
Northwest 94 21.28% 17.52 38.3% -0.98 -0.1086 -0.427
Southeast 86 27.91% 21.59 44.19% -0.351 0.5075 -0.125
Southwest 76 25.0% 17.46 38.16% 0.047 1.2567 -0.154
West 164 22.56% 19.36 44.51% 0.245 1.3056 -0.3

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 16.67% 16.83 58.33% 0.074 0.5482 -0.04
Skip Initial Invader Actions 74 14.86% 55.42 82.43% 0.534 -0.0328 0.808
Start of Game Growth 82 18.29% 53.6 79.27% 0.74 0.0755 0.981
Unlimited Undo 72 5.63% 22.79 58.33% -0.453 -0.4303
Using Tokens but Not Events 164 14.72% 21.95 67.68% -0.724 -0.6762 -0.438

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 360 15.45 12.78%
II 506 30.45 85.77%
III 442 34.8 93.89%
IV 162 38.47 99.38%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.688 Win Model: -0.469
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1137 23.92% 24.89 75.81%
3 221 33.03% 34.61 66.97%
4 41 30.0% 23.15 65.85%
5 18 16.67% 8.56 16.67%
6 53 28.3% 16.98 30.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 46
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 413
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 434
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 160
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 272
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 63
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 69
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)