Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 13 38.46% 23.54 0.448 61.54% -0.163 0.1832
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 19 15.79% 27.32 1.804 63.16% -0.174 0.103
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 16 37.5% 33.25 -6.677 62.5% -0.769 0.043
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 66.67% 51.0 10.93 100.0% 0.427 1.4254
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 14.29% 19.71 -8.375 28.57% -0.883 0.4989
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 41.33 -8.786 66.67% -0.225 1.7064
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 43.75% 22.88 -3.044 68.75% -0.487 -0.2712
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 20 30.0% 26.05 -4.743 60.0% -0.739 -0.809
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 23 8.7% 35.48 5.917 82.61% 0.887 0.8035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 12 25.0% 35.92 -0.753 66.67% -0.081 0.1343
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 28.57% 38.0 -4.98 71.43% -0.116 0.1089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 33.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 71.43% 45.57 -9.452 57.14% -0.411 0.9457
The Kingdom of England 0 1 15 26.67% 22.27 1.225 66.67% 0.135 0.3441
The Kingdom of England 1 3 11 9.09% 22.82 11.232 45.45% 0.538 0.8251
The Kingdom of England 2 4 22 18.18% 23.59 -5.499 50.0% -0.448 0.2851
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 55.56% 27.33 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 28.57% 35.36 -9.128 57.14% -0.736 0.5443
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10 30.0% 42.0 1.988 30.0% -0.211 1.7832
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 18.44 -8.145 43.75% -0.469 -0.0558
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 19 36.84% 23.37 -6.728 36.84% -0.574 0.2326
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 42 35.71% 28.81 3.458 28.57% -0.06 1.043
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6 83.33% 51.0 0.0 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 40.0% 10.8 -2.802 0.0% -0.672 0.8422
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 28.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6 16.67% 22.0 -7.196 16.67% -0.284 1.1922
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 25 16.0% 23.2 -3.402 80.0% -0.307 -0.0956
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 21 28.57% 21.38 -3.946 52.38% -0.888 -0.5028
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 16 6.25% 30.56 -9.669 68.75% -0.573 -0.1944
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 41.67% 33.83 10.188 66.67% 0.415 0.6875
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 25.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 8 50.0% 44.38 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 19 57.89% 48.79 5.321 57.89% -0.425 0.7155
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7 14.29% 24.57 0.0 85.71%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 10 40.0% 31.9 4.531 90.0% 0.874 0.97
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 18 33.33% 26.94 1.321 66.67% -0.105 0.0034
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 40.0% 17.6 -8.847 40.0% -0.854 -0.3868
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.377 0.0% -0.289 0.3312
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 27.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 92.31% 26.15 0.0 15.38%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 0.0% 23.11 0.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 20.0% 21.6 2.254 50.0% -0.126 0.5337
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 10.0% 19.6 1.175 50.0% -0.242 0.1519
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 0.0% 42.0 -6.332 75.0% -0.187 0.8449
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 75.0% 14.25 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 15.5 6.922 0.0% -0.224 1.4934
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 9 44.44 25.56 77.78% 0.225 0.4796
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 354 28.25 26.0 75.42% -0.716 -0.7088 -0.182
2 Coastline 128 22.66 24.86 88.28% 1.442 1.2372 0.23
2 Fragment 12 25.0 25.25 50.0% -0.136 -0.4138
2 Heart 12 8.33 30.33 100.0% 0.343
2 Opposite Shores 200 20.0 24.42 92.5% 0.742 0.7995 -0.125
2 Thematic 83 22.89 27.3 66.27% -0.045 0.4071 -0.217
2 Top to Top 27 29.63 28.33 88.89% -0.184 -0.2815 -0.273
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0% 0.257 -0.3098
3 Other 4 25.0 24.0 100.0% 0.106 0.0772
3 Round (Default) 106 23.58 28.08 66.04% -1.094 -1.3203 -0.27
3 Thematic 22 22.73 20.27 31.82% -0.663 -0.4659 -0.041
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 33.0 100.0% 0.046 -1.1397
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 6 50.0 18.5 50.0% -0.342 -0.5399 -0.081
4 Trapezoid (Default) 23 40.91 33.35 82.61% 0.175 -0.0688 -0.065
5 Other 8 37.5 19.38 37.5% -0.096 -1.1529 0.136
5 Thematic 2 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.038
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 26 34.62 20.42 30.77% 0.399 1.1533 -0.01
6 Two Centers (Default) 11 18.18 20.45 54.55% -0.225 -0.8042 0.12
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.141

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 24.53 60.0% -0.673 -0.513 0.24
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 32.38 52.38% -0.425 -0.5118 0.31
All Things Weaken 22 30.91 63.64% 0.458 0.8003 0.137
Attenuated Essence 5 33.0 80.0%
Back Against the Wall 17 28.35 52.94% -0.11 -0.0353 -0.286
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.75 75.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 25.0 71.43% -0.336 -0.2124
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 20.6 73.33%
Downward Spiral 20 34.35 80.0% -0.543 -0.4063 0.89
Erosion of Will 11 21.36 81.82% 0.306 0.6003
Intensifying Exploitation 5 17.2 20.0% -0.391 -0.1529
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 12 31.83 100.0% 0.128 -0.4045 0.303
Memory Fades to Dust 16 19.56 50.0% -0.101 0.1798
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 32.4 73.33% -0.038 0.1154 0.53
Promising Farmlands 12 28.0 66.67% 0.542 0.8881
Shattered Fragments of Power 8 28.88 62.5% -0.193 0.0021 0.228
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 26.13 87.5% 0.196 -0.5445
The Border of Life and Death 2 22.5 50.0%
Thriving Communities 13 21.38 53.85% 0.175 0.4732
Thriving Crops 3 46.33 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 18 33.5 72.22% 0.44
Untended Land Crumbles 14 31.93 64.29% -0.26

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 341 22.35% 26.92 82.99% -0.008 0.9866 1.297
B 300 21.4% 26.21 80.0% -0.186 0.7317 0.338
C 293 24.23% 26.04 81.23% 0.114 0.8567 0.694
D 247 27.24% 24.39 77.73% 0.148 1.0995 -0.249
E 243 29.22% 25.72 69.14% -0.07 0.7109 -0.027
F 224 26.34% 27.19 77.68% 0.29 1.1829 0.65
G 222 34.39% 25.57 66.67% -0.069 0.7864 -0.023
H 214 20.09% 22.57 73.83% -0.479 0.3694 -0.988
East 118 27.97% 23.24 50.0% -0.316 0.4531 -0.17
Northeast 70 30.0% 22.16 42.86% -0.299 0.4888 -0.191
Northwest 64 25.0% 21.02 45.31% -0.326 0.6573 -0.308
Southeast 64 32.81% 24.84 48.44% 0.096 0.9707 -0.049
Southwest 52 28.85% 21.83 44.23% 0.298 1.5055 -0.09
West 110 23.64% 22.19 50.0% -0.501 0.4329 -0.326

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 8 12.5% 20.13 75.0% -0.036 0.4704 -0.081
Skip Initial Invader Actions 34 2.94% 36.5 82.35% 0.171 -0.4642 0.162
Start of Game Growth 38 5.26% 34.05 76.32% 0.171 -0.2187 0.008
Unlimited Undo 53 3.85% 24.36 66.04% -0.773 -0.7289
Using Tokens but Not Events 109 9.26% 22.85 78.9% 0.533 0.506 -0.117

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 215 17.67 15.81%
II 379 30.7 87.07%
III 334 34.75 93.71%
IV 116 38.22 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.171 Win Model: -0.277
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 840 24.76% 25.56 80.12%
3 125 26.4% 28.78 67.2%
4 28 29.63% 24.75 67.86%
5 7 28.57% 11.86 28.57%
6 44 29.55% 18.52 34.09%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 313
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 330
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 115
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 147
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 44
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 54
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)