Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 50.0% 32.5 5.979 83.33% 0.108 0.4776
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 42.86% 39.0 0.701 85.71% -0.22 0.1233
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 44.6 6.738 100.0% 0.052 1.0333
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 56.0 0.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 41.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 8 50.0% 23.13 -3.938 75.0% -0.364 -0.4823
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5 40.0% 35.8 11.903 80.0% 0.024 -0.1285
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 14.29% 45.14 3.46 100.0% 0.078 0.187
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 56.8 6.899 100.0% 0.051 0.4505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 44.5 -0.084 50.0% -0.684 0.7825
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 33.33% 28.33 0.239 83.33% -0.177 0.1836
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 50.5 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 49.0 8.722 100.0% 0.023 1.5168
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 50.0% 55.5 9.113 100.0% 0.066 1.4716
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 35.5 1.094 100.0% 0.03 0.6125
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 30.0 -0.294 66.67% 0.067 1.1349
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 22 50.0% 26.68 0.361 18.18% -1.029 0.8764
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 55.0 5.089 100.0% 0.16 2.2918
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 28.0 -1.775 0.0% -0.511 1.2407
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2 0.0% 29.5 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 15 20.0% 27.13 1.094 93.33% 0.03 -0.0555
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 33.33% 31.56 -2.074 77.78% -0.313 0.5807
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 9 11.11% 43.33 4.616 100.0% 0.263 1.2605
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 50.0% 35.5 6.007 66.67% 0.021 0.7065
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 50.0% 60.25 8.858 100.0% 0.036 1.3096
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 8 50.0% 67.5 15.689 87.5% 0.062 1.7101
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 50.0% 24.0 1.308 100.0% 0.022 0.1097
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 33.33% 36.0 0.615 100.0% 0.022 0.0594
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 44.44% 31.67 0.139 77.78% -0.407 -0.1664
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 66.67% 45.67 8.384 100.0% 0.04 0.4371
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 23 100.0% 24.26 0.0 8.7%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 37.75 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 43.0 4.179 100.0% 0.127 0.8962
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 33.0 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 50.0 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 3 0.0 28.67 100.0% 0.042 0.6596
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 177 37.85 28.45 83.05% 0.17 0.58 -0.131
2 Coastline 65 23.08 27.43 92.31% -0.166 -0.0299 -0.102
2 Fragment 3 0.0 29.0 100.0% 0.026 0.0213
2 Heart 8 0.0 24.88 100.0%
2 Opposite Shores 115 23.48 25.45 94.78% 0.392 0.7457
2 Thematic 30 26.67 39.43 93.33% 0.133 1.063
2 Top to Top 12 8.33 28.33 100.0% 0.036 0.1627
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 39 15.38 28.33 87.18% -0.978 -0.7849 0.097
3 Thematic 11 36.36 36.73 54.55% 0.041 0.0558
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 4 75.0 27.75 75.0% 0.067 0.3501
4 Trapezoid (Default) 8 12.5 30.0 100.0% 0.388 0.5761
5 Other 2 100.0 57.5 100.0% 0.068
6 Archipelago 1 0.0 26.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 15 46.67 22.6 26.67% -0.122 -0.0759
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 50.0 42.5 100.0% 0.16 0.6229 0.058
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0% -0.239 -0.4602

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 25.9 70.0% -0.423 1.3077 0.068
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 33.5 50.0% 0.158 1.7332 0.332
All Things Weaken 15 30.53 60.0% -0.595 1.2832 0.117
Back Against the Wall 10 29.9 50.0% 0.058
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 22.36 63.64%
Downward Spiral 11 29.0 81.82% 0.091 1.7894
Erosion of Will 8 20.63 75.0% 0.067 1.9675
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 31.67 100.0% 0.086 0.586 0.223
Memory Fades to Dust 9 25.67 55.56% 0.029 1.9053
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 20.88 62.5% -0.201 1.5036
Promising Farmlands 8 26.75 50.0% -1.22 0.6553
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 28.8 100.0% 0.08 0.2904
Thriving Communities 7 19.0 28.57%
Unnatural Proliferation 12 24.08 66.67% 0.16 1.9139
Untended Land Crumbles 10 26.4 50.0% -0.684 1.1299 -0.295

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 154 22.08% 28.82 96.1% -0.238 0.5396 0.673
B 138 23.91% 29.29 94.2% -0.013 0.6902 0.084
C 152 21.71% 28.39 92.11% -0.294 0.2334 0.017
D 116 31.03% 27.94 91.38% 0.052 0.7871 0.008
E 110 38.18% 27.56 78.18% -0.047 0.5374 0.414
F 106 25.47% 28.82 93.4% 0.056 0.763 0.263
G 101 45.54% 26.19 71.29% -0.525 0.1174 -0.475
H 100 24.0% 28.02 92.0% 0.04 0.6848 -0.468
East 53 39.62% 32.68 64.15% 0.059 0.651
Northeast 36 38.89% 30.06 52.78% -0.122 0.5552
Northwest 27 37.04% 30.33 59.26% -0.089 0.3483
Southeast 37 45.95% 30.24 51.35% 0.041 0.7046
Southwest 23 43.48% 28.13 47.83% -0.026 1.1454
West 40 35.0% 32.88 67.5% 0.065 0.8828

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 26.8 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 5.88% 36.94 100.0% 0.037 -1.0222
Start of Game Growth 18 11.11% 37.83 100.0% 0.037 -0.3853
Unlimited Undo 24 8.33% 36.29 100.0% 0.141 -0.2741
Using Tokens but Not Events 54 11.11% 28.96 100.0% 0.391 0.507 0.097

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 39 22.63 51.28%
II 224 31.12 84.82%
III 175 34.7 92.57%
IV 62 37.97 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.249 Win Model: -0.791
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 414 28.5% 28.25 89.61%
3 50 22.0% 29.44 80.0%
4 14 35.71% 33.5 92.86%
5 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
6 21 47.62% 26.05 42.86%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 162
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 190
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 61
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 24
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 36
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)