Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 11 18.18% 21.55 -0.483 63.64% -0.012 0.4328
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 8 12.5% 25.25 -1.737 50.0% -0.365 -0.4141
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 4 50.0% 32.5 4.554 75.0% 0.318 0.4549
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 66.67% 15.0 2.348 33.33% 0.074 0.1194
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 37 27.03% 23.08 -1.875 59.46% -0.299 0.126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 35 17.14% 23.37 -1.137 54.29% -0.233 0.0344
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 30 23.33% 26.43 9.548 50.0% 0.122 0.652
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 17 35.29% 38.94 -1.81 47.06% -0.826 0.1439
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 22.22% 21.44 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 48 29.17% 24.96 -1.098 70.83% -0.173 0.0228
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 50 30.0% 24.86 -1.991 60.0% -0.27 -0.3245
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 40 15.0% 32.4 6.454 75.0% 0.378 0.38
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 24 33.33% 35.25 -7.466 62.5% -0.541 -0.3487
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 22 31.82% 38.23 -10.459 59.09% -0.391 -0.1579
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 0.0% 16.5 -1.83 25.0% -0.087 0.3141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 37.5% 47.19 0.0 56.25%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 35 25.71% 22.83 -2.602 68.57% -0.415 -0.114
The Kingdom of England 1 3 41 31.71% 17.76 -0.419 36.59% 0.16 0.4194
The Kingdom of England 2 4 34 20.59% 21.15 -3.097 44.12% -0.372 0.0904
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 42.11% 23.37 10.278 31.58% 0.164 1.1853
The Kingdom of England 4 7 31 29.03% 51.48 18.879 67.74% 0.384 1.339
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8 0.0% 34.63 -3.127 50.0% -0.126 1.4444
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 27.78% 39.33 -3.764 33.33% -0.234 1.6022
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 33 21.21% 22.52 9.341 51.52% 0.187 0.5327
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 37 27.03% 18.89 3.351 32.43% 0.076 0.9039
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 54 35.19% 27.87 12.811 31.48% 0.606 1.7415
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 66.67% 39.61 -0.522 61.11% -0.916 0.2649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 53.85% 27.0 17.986 30.77% 0.057 1.3658
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 33.33% 30.67 6.631 22.22% -0.286 0.9582
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 39 46.15% 54.92 -7.28 51.28% -0.283 1.0899
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 52 17.31% 24.63 3.433 78.85% 0.343 0.6159
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 41 24.39% 23.63 -7.737 58.54% -0.907 -0.4408
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 26 15.38% 26.12 0.0 57.69%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 52.17% 33.65 3.563 60.87% 0.074 0.046
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 15 13.33% 32.27 13.248 60.0% 0.097 0.5961
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 26 42.31% 65.58 0.0 84.62%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 39 58.97% 53.38 15.072 64.1% 0.372 1.4199
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 28 14.29% 21.07 1.272 67.86% 0.688 0.9422
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 29 27.59% 23.62 -4.662 58.62% -0.511 -0.4875
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 38 34.21% 24.11 1.242 57.89% 0.327 0.5236
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 24 41.67% 22.29 10.811 45.83% 0.262 0.484
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 16.67% 12.17 4.691 16.67% 0.021 0.7704
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 9 11.11% 27.56 -5.796 33.33% -0.224 0.7916
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 42 73.81% 40.57 -6.943 40.48% -0.289 0.6122
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 30 20.0% 26.27 6.571 70.0% 0.59 0.8237
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 26 23.08% 13.0 -7.251 30.77% -0.386 0.4137
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 23 13.04% 13.0 -5.61 30.43% -0.838 -0.5822
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11 9.09% 24.18 -9.968 45.45% -0.422 0.6637
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 54.55% 17.36 -4.87 18.18% -0.548 0.4039
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 25.0% 12.75 -4.839 12.5% -0.266 1.1575
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 18 38.89 25.17 77.78% -0.322 0.2855
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 675 26.96 23.3 67.11% -0.191 -0.0709 -0.278
2 Coastline 221 19.91 23.97 85.07% 0.444 0.3722 0.24
2 Fragment 28 32.14 27.21 67.86% -0.25 -0.4348 0.117
2 Heart 19 31.58 29.74 100.0% 0.292 0.1345 0.356
2 Opposite Shores 332 21.99 25.9 87.65% 0.576 0.7267 -0.078
2 Thematic 194 22.16 22.48 53.09% -0.199 0.3091 -0.297
2 Top to Top 50 22.0 24.62 82.0% -0.286 -0.3445 -0.2
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 39.67 100.0%
3 Coastline 2 100.0 19.5 50.0%
3 Other 12 33.33 23.5 75.0% 0.283 -0.4886
3 Round (Default) 262 27.48 33.42 65.27% -0.029 -0.1206 0.256
3 Sunrise 2 0.0 44.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 45 24.44 18.96 35.56% -0.416 -0.3951 -0.175
4 Archipelago 3 66.67 30.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 3 66.67 59.67 100.0% 0.18
4 Other 1 100.0 26.0 100.0% 0.419
4 Thematic 14 50.0 21.86 50.0% 0.258 0.381 -0.046
4 Trapezoid (Default) 42 31.71 31.0 76.19% 0.359 0.3563 -0.198
5 Other 15 26.67 15.07 26.67% -0.006
5 Thematic 7 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.055
6 Archipelago 3 0.0 8.67 33.33% -0.391 -1.4287
6 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 100.0%
6 Other 3 0.0 17.0 33.33% 0.267 0.1636
6 Star 2 0.0 18.0 50.0%
6 Thematic 33 30.3 17.79 30.3% -0.062
6 Two Centers (Default) 25 20.0 13.64 36.0% -0.285 0.2482 -0.057
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 4 25.0 5.25 0.0% -0.087 -0.6453 -0.118

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 21 26.95 52.38% 0.438
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 29.76 54.55% 0.3 0.2427 -0.039
All Things Weaken 33 25.42 51.52% -0.624 -0.2897 0.126
Attenuated Essence 11 28.27 81.82% 0.327 0.3608
Back Against the Wall 27 33.15 66.67% -0.252 -0.2175 0.118
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 30.35 80.0% -0.25 -0.0325 0.196
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 32.94 82.35% 0.66 0.6709 -0.628
Disintegrating Ecosystem 28 23.36 64.29% -0.255 0.0892 -0.11
Downward Spiral 34 34.32 73.53% 0.447 0.5642 0.69
Erosion of Will 28 21.54 64.29% -0.394 -0.1198
Intensifying Exploitation 16 29.81 37.5% -0.632
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 27.53 76.47% -0.194
Memory Fades to Dust 29 23.72 51.72% -0.655 -0.403 0.484
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 33.87 68.42% 0.568 0.7728 1.355
Promising Farmlands 29 36.31 82.76% 0.69 0.9444 0.74
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 29.74 73.68% 0.877 0.9514 0.31
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 18.67 66.67% 0.119 0.5006
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 28.0 88.89%
The Border of Life and Death 5 27.8 80.0% 0.048 -0.5522
Thriving Communities 29 24.52 68.97% 0.163 0.4448
Thriving Crops 10 31.9 50.0% -0.547
Unnatural Proliferation 30 32.43 70.0% 0.561 0.7648 1.101
Untended Land Crumbles 24 26.88 45.83% -0.338 -0.1483 -0.231

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 671 22.84% 25.77 75.56% 0.478 1.4756 0.909
B 595 24.58% 26.43 73.11% -0.174 0.7484 0.375
C 580 24.66% 24.99 72.41% -0.435 0.2939 0.744
D 499 24.9% 25.77 72.14% 0.375 1.3343 0.106
E 452 27.65% 26.01 65.93% 0.009 0.8286 0.141
F 448 26.56% 26.47 70.09% -0.256 0.6257 -0.081
G 389 32.99% 26.84 65.3% -0.373 0.4527 0.233
H 417 25.66% 23.66 67.87% 0.041 0.8801 -0.942
East 241 25.31% 20.58 45.23% -0.523 0.352 -0.302
Northeast 146 24.66% 20.71 42.47% 0.116 0.868 -0.35
Northwest 128 21.09% 19.2 42.97% 0.166 1.0579 -0.442
Southeast 110 29.09% 20.63 43.64% -0.258 0.5813 -0.275
Southwest 106 25.47% 16.39 37.74% -0.212 1.0928 -0.166
West 231 23.81% 19.4 44.59% 0.098 1.0476 -0.417

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 20 15.0% 14.45 50.0% -0.335 0.0104 -0.046
Skip Initial Invader Actions 91 13.19% 54.81 82.42% -0.038 -0.6403 0.995
Start of Game Growth 101 15.84% 53.53 79.21% -0.581 -1.0853 1.099
Unlimited Undo 92 6.59% 22.09 54.35% -0.884 -0.9912 -0.17
Using Tokens but Not Events 188 14.97% 21.54 68.62% 0.438 0.4087 -0.531

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 531 13.42 10.55%
II 673 30.13 85.14%
III 591 34.83 93.06%
IV 225 38.67 99.56%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.4 Win Model: -0.343
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1572 24.49% 23.94 72.52%
3 300 29.67% 33.19 66.0%
4 60 32.2% 25.27 65.0%
5 20 15.0% 7.7 15.0%
6 68 25.0% 16.12 33.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 56
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 548
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 573
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 223
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 426
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 80
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 99
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)