Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 17 29.41% 25.12 4.349 64.71% 0.195 0.639
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 20 15.0% 27.95 9.839 65.0% 0.258 0.565
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 21 33.33% 28.48 -0.156 52.38% -0.194 0.5812
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 37.5% 47.0 4.713 75.0% -0.207 0.7601
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 14.29% 19.71 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 1.022 0.0% -0.002 1.4333
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 5.408 57.14% -0.428 1.6679
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 19 36.84% 22.63 0.784 68.42% 0.066 0.3061
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 36 27.78% 24.47 -0.577 61.11% 0.233 0.3482
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 27 7.41% 32.96 1.876 77.78% 0.166 0.2748
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 23.53% 35.65 -3.905 58.82% -0.536 -0.3137
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 22.22% 38.89 4.162 66.67% 0.067 0.3559
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 22.0 0.367 33.33% -0.007 0.5872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 45.0 14.598 54.55% 0.247 1.7331
The Kingdom of England 0 1 20 35.0% 23.5 -2.534 70.0% -0.245 0.083
The Kingdom of England 1 3 21 19.05% 16.05 -6.898 33.33% -1.494 -1.1908
The Kingdom of England 2 4 26 19.23% 22.08 -3.821 46.15% -0.566 0.1617
The Kingdom of England 3 6 13 38.46% 22.62 -1.693 30.77% -0.047 1.1475
The Kingdom of England 4 7 20 25.0% 47.55 10.01 65.0% -0.137 1.0803
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 -3.598 0.0% -0.167 1.5051
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 25.0% 53.33 23.259 41.67% 0.134 2.1947
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 20 15.0% 19.75 -1.673 45.0% -0.108 0.4463
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 24 33.33% 19.13 -5.259 29.17% -0.765 -0.0829
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 45 37.78% 28.09 1.771 28.89% -0.237 0.8646
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 80.0% 44.9 9.199 70.0% 0.185 1.577
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 57.14% 19.43 8.79 14.29% 0.062 1.528
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 28.0 1.393 0.0% -0.492 0.579
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 20 60.0% 51.55 9.189 40.0% -0.367 1.0536
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 32 18.75% 25.44 5.295 84.38% 0.771 1.0171
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 27 29.63% 21.15 -6.094 51.85% -0.688 -0.0573
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 18 11.11% 29.44 -2.748 66.67% -0.279 0.1835
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 15 46.67% 39.6 14.646 66.67% 0.272 0.7369
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 25.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 16 37.5% 60.75 9.712 81.25% 0.196 0.7604
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27 62.96% 51.3 7.496 55.56% -0.751 0.216
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 14 7.14% 19.43 -2.806 64.29% -0.302 -0.097
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 15 33.33% 26.8 -7.215 73.33% -0.632 -0.5962
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 21 28.57% 24.81 -2.583 61.9% -0.253 -0.0394
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 14.0 -7.723 30.77% -0.8 -0.4401
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 33.33% 18.0 -3.779 33.33% -0.081 0.715
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 92.86% 29.75 11.856 21.43% 0.075 1.181
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 16.67% 21.08 -5.281 58.33% -0.508 -0.338
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 28.57% 23.07 -1.54 57.14% 0.111 0.9504
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 10.0% 19.6 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7 0.0% 31.57 3.806 57.14% 0.053 1.1495
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 22.8 12.535 20.0% 0.33 1.3062
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 25.0% 7.75 -2.357 0.0% -0.009 1.6581
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 13 46.15 25.0 76.92% 0.089 0.5816
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 436 26.83 25.13 72.25% -0.179 -0.2278 -0.092
2 Coastline 153 20.92 23.8 84.97% 0.203 0.1024 0.251
2 Fragment 15 26.67 25.13 60.0% 0.229 -0.1838
2 Heart 12 8.33 30.33 100.0% 0.383
2 Opposite Shores 242 22.31 25.84 89.67% 0.252 0.0724 -0.397
2 Thematic 115 23.48 25.44 61.74% 0.144 0.3309 -0.161
2 Top to Top 32 25.0 26.28 84.38% -0.237 -0.4366 -0.311
3 Archipelago 2 100.0 43.0 100.0% 0.316 -0.8051
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Other 6 16.67 16.0 66.67% -0.251 -0.5853
3 Round (Default) 143 30.07 32.66 65.73% 0.055 -0.2106 -0.003
3 Thematic 27 18.52 16.52 25.93% -0.265 -0.7117 -0.025
4 Archipelago 2 50.0 32.5 100.0% 0.157 -0.4007
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 7 42.86 15.86 42.86% -0.175 0.0287 -0.051
4 Trapezoid (Default) 29 32.14 29.86 82.76% 0.125 0.4648 -0.045
5 Other 11 27.27 14.09 27.27% -0.853 -1.5744 -0.036
5 Thematic 4 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.024 0.1366 -0.049
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 30 30.0 17.7 26.67% -0.127 -0.1013 -0.103
6 Two Centers (Default) 14 21.43 20.29 50.0% 0.395 0.4931 0.249
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.136

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 28.06 58.82% 0.268 0.4066 0.361
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 34.21 58.33% 0.501 0.4421 0.405
All Things Weaken 23 31.09 65.22% 0.069
Attenuated Essence 6 31.17 66.67% -0.196 -0.0846
Back Against the Wall 17 28.35 52.94% -0.239
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 35.67 88.89% 0.441 0.6513 0.273
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 25.78 66.67% -0.407 -0.2865 -0.461
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 20.6 73.33%
Downward Spiral 25 35.96 76.0% -0.23 -0.0338 0.714
Erosion of Will 18 19.56 66.67% -0.236 0.0309
Intensifying Exploitation 12 34.17 25.0% -0.33 -0.0601 -0.31
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 28.67 80.0% -0.175 -0.6857 -0.145
Memory Fades to Dust 17 20.29 52.94% 0.157 0.4681
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 29.89 68.42% -0.445 -0.1506 0.416
Promising Farmlands 17 36.82 76.47% 0.624 0.9603 0.621
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 28.0 61.54% -0.092 0.017 0.319
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 26.13 87.5%
The Border of Life and Death 3 33.33 66.67%
Thriving Communities 19 23.05 57.89% 0.125 0.4578
Thriving Crops 5 41.0 60.0% -0.689 -0.7755 -0.302
Unnatural Proliferation 22 32.64 72.73% 0.01 0.1573 0.476
Untended Land Crumbles 17 31.24 52.94% -0.492 -0.185 -0.234

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 427 22.54% 26.43 79.16% 0.434 1.3391 1.118
B 375 23.8% 25.86 76.0% -0.069 0.7597 0.235
C 374 24.87% 25.88 76.74% 0.069 0.7486 0.719
D 311 27.1% 25.8 75.88% 0.187 1.0402 -0.171
E 294 29.59% 26.03 66.67% -0.451 0.2505 0.221
F 278 25.54% 27.61 74.82% 0.133 0.9147 0.497
G 266 33.96% 27.19 68.8% 0.669 1.4409 0.372
H 265 23.77% 23.57 70.94% 0.011 0.7794 -1.118
East 155 25.81% 21.55 47.74% -0.442 0.4193 -0.195
Northeast 94 26.6% 20.44 41.49% -0.03 0.7171 -0.261
Northwest 81 22.22% 19.2 41.98% -0.426 0.4075 -0.348
Southeast 79 29.11% 22.59 45.57% -0.012 0.7641 -0.152
Southwest 69 23.19% 17.75 37.68% -0.271 1.0485 -0.177
West 140 21.43% 19.82 45.71% -0.904 0.1023 -0.331

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 10.0% 16.1 60.0% -0.376 0.0651 -0.051
Skip Initial Invader Actions 54 11.11% 50.91 81.48% -0.081 -0.6428 0.648
Start of Game Growth 61 14.75% 49.02 77.05% 0.567 0.0281 0.952
Unlimited Undo 61 3.33% 22.33 60.66% -0.765 -0.7236
Using Tokens but Not Events 139 13.77% 21.4 69.78% -0.509 -0.5329 -0.633

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 308 16.23 13.96%
II 460 30.54 86.09%
III 396 34.77 93.69%
IV 139 38.37 99.28%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.515 Win Model: -0.708
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1033 24.49% 25.13 76.96%
3 171 30.99% 31.44 64.33%
4 37 25.0% 22.27 67.57%
5 12 16.67% 6.92 16.67%
6 50 28.0% 17.48 32.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 43
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 370
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 396
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 137
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 223
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 63
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)