Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 2 50.0% 28.0 3.696 100.0% 0.32 0.2264
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 2 0.0% 40.0 6.146 100.0% 0.363 -0.2061
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.355 0.0% -0.075 0.4563
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 30 33.33% 24.47 -0.813 63.33% -0.456 -0.063
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 29 17.24% 25.93 0.0 62.07%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 28 25.0% 25.04 -9.537 46.43% -0.782 -0.241
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 35.71% 44.07 -0.503 57.14% -0.755 0.024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 22.22% 21.44 0.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 41 31.71% 26.49 3.541 75.61% 0.36 0.5462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 46 32.61% 25.96 4.696 63.04% 0.123 0.1498
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 35 11.43% 33.69 6.017 80.0% 0.257 0.4029
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 22 36.36% 38.45 7.16 68.18% 0.111 0.3739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 19 31.58% 40.58 -10.84 63.16% -0.723 -0.4506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 22.0 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 37.5% 47.19 -0.081 56.25% -0.706 0.5234
The Kingdom of England 0 1 32 28.13% 23.81 1.504 71.88% -0.377 0.0124
The Kingdom of England 1 3 35 25.71% 18.14 2.229 37.14% -0.069 0.5193
The Kingdom of England 2 4 31 22.58% 22.61 0.0 48.39%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 37.5% 22.38 10.229 31.25% 0.085 1.2137
The Kingdom of England 4 7 30 30.0% 51.4 -6.218 66.67% -0.54 0.4602
The Kingdom of England 5 9 7 0.0% 39.57 0.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14 21.43% 45.71 0.0 35.71%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 32 21.88% 22.06 4.382 50.0% 0.354 0.8812
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 30 30.0% 18.5 9.776 30.0% 0.288 1.1459
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 50 36.0% 26.74 -1.978 28.0% -0.535 0.6952
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 13 84.62% 47.08 10.986 76.92% 0.326 1.5763
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 58.33% 24.0 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 60.0% 27.6 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 47.37% 56.37 -10.105 52.63% -0.806 0.664
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 50 16.0% 24.5 2.495 78.0% 0.15 0.4986
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 39 25.64% 24.85 9.154 61.54% 0.792 1.0585
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 24 16.67% 28.29 0.196 62.5% -0.208 0.1107
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 19 42.11% 33.37 7.667 57.89% 0.165 0.451
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 14 14.29% 30.43 9.857 57.14% 0.496 1.2944
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 25 44.0% 65.88 0.0 84.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 36 58.33% 52.42 11.799 61.11% 0.218 1.3654
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 22 9.09% 21.14 6.573 68.18% 0.088 0.3394
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 26 30.77% 26.35 -3.145 65.38% -0.279 -0.087
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 32 31.25% 25.06 -1.986 59.38% -0.789 -0.572
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 22 40.91% 19.95 9.146 40.91% 0.217 0.6679
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 14.29% 35.43 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 40 77.5% 42.6 11.333 42.5% 0.251 1.2831
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 25.0% 25.0 0.516 66.67% -0.023 0.2229
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 22 27.27% 15.36 -8.808 36.36% -0.946 -0.1942
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 17 17.65% 15.06 -9.319 35.29% -0.36 0.1248
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 10.0% 26.6 7.751 50.0% 0.178 1.0076
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 55.56% 19.22 0.0 22.22%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 33.33% 17.0 0.0 16.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 17 41.18 26.65 82.35%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 586 25.43 24.03 69.62% -0.165 -0.0042 -0.337
2 Coastline 196 19.9 23.82 85.71% 0.392 0.1987 0.175
2 Fragment 25 28.0 29.0 68.0% -0.374 -0.4224 0.178
2 Heart 16 18.75 31.75 100.0% 0.208 -0.0044 0.322
2 Opposite Shores 302 20.2 25.99 88.74% 0.18 0.3119 -0.014
2 Thematic 165 24.24 22.67 54.55% -0.239 0.4809 -0.285
2 Top to Top 46 23.91 24.54 82.61% 0.29 0.2059 -0.339
3 Archipelago 3 100.0 39.67 100.0%
3 Coastline 2 100.0 19.5 50.0% -0.208 -0.8381
3 Other 11 36.36 22.09 72.73% 0.384 -0.4921
3 Round (Default) 228 29.39 35.94 67.54% -0.145 -0.168 0.31
3 Sunrise 2 0.0 44.0 100.0%
3 Thematic 37 24.32 21.11 37.84% 0.248 0.2554 -0.021
4 Archipelago 3 66.67 30.0 100.0% 0.165 0.0129
4 Leaf 3 66.67 59.67 100.0% 0.128
4 Other 1 100.0 26.0 100.0% 0.08 -0.4877 0.429
4 Thematic 11 54.55 21.27 45.45% 0.058 0.1207 -0.053
4 Trapezoid (Default) 37 33.33 31.51 75.68% -0.844 -0.8384 -0.216
5 Other 15 26.67 15.07 26.67% -0.011
5 Thematic 7 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.075 -0.2176 -0.065
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 100.0%
6 Other 2 0.0 13.0 0.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 18.0 50.0%
6 Thematic 32 31.25 17.53 28.13% -0.19 0.0135 -0.085
6 Two Centers (Default) 20 20.0 16.35 40.0% 0.254 0.7282 -0.028
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.078

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 20 28.1 55.0% -0.208 -0.1366 0.384
Aid From Lesser Spirits 28 32.18 57.14% -0.125 -0.2346 0.293
All Things Weaken 32 25.97 53.13% -0.259 -0.0822 0.176
Attenuated Essence 7 32.14 71.43%
Back Against the Wall 23 34.17 65.22% 0.159 0.1433 -0.151
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 31.56 83.33% -0.294 -0.1106 0.225
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 32.25 75.0% 0.111 0.1981 -0.684
Disintegrating Ecosystem 23 25.3 69.57% -0.307 -0.0155 -0.113
Downward Spiral 30 35.97 76.67% 0.754
Erosion of Will 25 21.76 68.0% 0.265 0.4307
Intensifying Exploitation 15 30.33 33.33% -0.63
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 16 28.31 75.0% -0.378 -0.8057 -0.199
Memory Fades to Dust 25 25.64 56.0% 0.422
Power Corrodes the Spirit 32 33.41 68.75% -0.446 -0.3502 0.74
Promising Farmlands 22 41.5 81.82% 0.701
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 29.19 68.75% 0.165 0.23 0.281
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 24.0 100.0% 0.079 0.5424
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 28.0 88.89%
The Border of Life and Death 3 33.33 66.67%
Thriving Communities 28 24.57 67.86% 0.131 0.3561
Thriving Crops 10 31.9 50.0% 0.223 -0.0013 -0.589
Unnatural Proliferation 29 32.66 68.97% -0.709 -0.5876 1.057
Untended Land Crumbles 20 28.95 50.0% -0.19 0.0419 -0.261

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 585 21.58% 26.49 76.75% 0.026 0.9446 1.03
B 525 24.62% 27.7 75.24% 0.046 0.8869 0.621
C 512 25.39% 26.15 75.0% 0.424 1.1069 0.76
D 442 23.81% 26.31 73.08% -0.321 0.5214 0.03
E 395 28.1% 26.66 67.09% 0.096 0.748 0.028
F 390 26.15% 27.87 73.59% 0.367 1.1266 -0.004
G 362 32.69% 27.8 66.85% 0.01 0.7672 0.143
H 355 25.07% 24.59 70.7% -0.364 0.3546 -1.12
East 208 26.92% 21.0 46.15% -0.428 0.3853 -0.177
Northeast 131 27.48% 20.28 41.22% -0.23 0.4376 -0.379
Northwest 116 23.28% 18.23 40.52% -0.228 0.5771 -0.468
Southeast 94 29.79% 22.01 45.74% 0.276 0.9814 -0.15
Southwest 89 24.72% 16.43 37.08% -0.073 1.3164 -0.171
West 199 24.62% 19.3 44.22% -0.338 0.456 -0.332

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 16 18.75% 15.06 50.0% 0.073 0.5582 -0.053
Skip Initial Invader Actions 88 13.64% 55.8 82.95% 0.455 -0.2753 0.925
Start of Game Growth 98 16.33% 54.78 80.61% 0.455 0.0093 1.097
Unlimited Undo 85 7.14% 23.45 57.65% -0.473 -0.5059 -0.153
Using Tokens but Not Events 178 15.25% 21.69 67.98% 0.255 0.0927 -0.582

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 445 14.25 12.13%
II 605 30.3 85.45%
III 532 34.84 94.17%
IV 194 38.61 99.48%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.184 Win Model: -0.33
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 1380 23.62% 24.44 74.57%
3 265 31.32% 35.29 67.92%
4 52 33.33% 25.15 63.46%
5 20 15.0% 7.7 15.0%
6 59 27.12% 17.47 33.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 54
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 499
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 517
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 192
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 347
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 71
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 82
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)