Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 30.25 0.0 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 40.0% 42.8 5.877 100.0% 0.195 0.6654
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 46.33 7.127 100.0% 0.009 0.9861
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 56.0 12.338 100.0% 0.032 1.3546
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 41.0 -0.99 50.0% -0.565 1.1558
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 60.0% 24.2 1.471 80.0% 0.064 0.2405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 25.0% 25.5 2.003 75.0% 0.027 -0.2483
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 47.0 5.084 100.0% 0.099 0.3478
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2 50.0% 63.0 12.562 100.0% 0.006 0.4728
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 62.0 14.328 100.0% 0.049 1.544
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 33.33% 31.0 1.941 100.0% 0.328 0.8212
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 3.24 100.0% 0.112 0.8615
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 50.5 8.611 100.0% 0.078 1.2131
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 10.251 100.0% 0.014 1.5731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 35.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 28.5 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 18 38.89% 26.39 -2.578 16.67% -1.591 0.7185
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 53.5 14.722 100.0% 0.034 2.3193
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 29.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 14 21.43% 26.5 1.501 92.86% 0.048 0.179
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 8 25.0% 33.88 2.974 87.5% 0.157 1.122
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 41.0 5.657 100.0% 0.032 1.0378
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 24.33 7.104 33.33% 0.042 0.8954
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 66.67% 61.33 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 60.0% 62.6 17.02 80.0% 0.042 1.5165
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 100.0% 18.0 -5.161 100.0% 0.095 0.2949
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 50.0% 38.5 4.063 100.0% 0.008 0.1594
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6 50.0% 34.0 2.539 83.33% 0.078 0.4173
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 100.0% 44.0 3.77 100.0% 0.015 0.3702
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 54.0 12.107 100.0% 0.1 0.8602
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 100.0% 24.95 0.837 9.52% -1.229 -0.0627
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 37.75 -1.469 100.0% 0.031 -0.249
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 33.0 2.047 100.0% 0.017 0.3564
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 50.0 11.096 100.0% 0.033 1.0338
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 2 0.0 30.0 100.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 126 38.89 27.57 80.95% -0.612 -0.2679 -0.016
2 Coastline 50 26.0 25.74 92.0% -0.232 -0.1487 -0.11
2 Fragment 2 0.0 29.5 100.0% 0.215 0.3026
2 Heart 8 0.0 24.88 100.0% 0.009 0.6204
2 Opposite Shores 100 24.0 25.42 94.0% 0.106 0.4842
2 Thematic 21 33.33 37.24 90.48% 0.513 1.0305
2 Top to Top 10 10.0 25.9 100.0% 0.077 0.216
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 26 11.54 27.77 96.15% 0.309 0.5014
3 Thematic 10 40.0 35.5 50.0% -0.301 -0.5465
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0% 0.099 0.5898
4 Thematic 2 50.0 24.0 50.0% -0.263 -0.2569
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5 20.0 30.2 100.0% 0.046 -0.0952
5 Other 2 100.0 57.5 100.0% 0.02 -0.155 0.059
6 Thematic 14 42.86 22.93 28.57% -0.041 0.4581
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 37.33 100.0% 0.058

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8 28.25 75.0% -0.067 1.8428 0.059
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 29.56 33.33% -1.168 0.517 0.309
All Things Weaken 10 34.6 70.0% -0.488 1.512 0.143
Back Against the Wall 9 29.89 44.44% -0.786 1.1616 0.058
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 22.36 63.64% -0.028 2.0376
Downward Spiral 8 28.63 75.0% 0.109 2.0715
Erosion of Will 7 18.86 71.43% -0.074 2.0333
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 23.8 100.0% 0.064 0.6805
Memory Fades to Dust 8 25.88 50.0% -0.058 1.9991
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6 22.5 66.67% 0.035 2.0135
Promising Farmlands 6 31.5 66.67% -0.733 1.3693
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 32.0 100.0% 0.564 0.8933
Thriving Communities 5 14.8 20.0% -0.322 1.728
Unnatural Proliferation 10 20.8 60.0% -0.089 1.8549
Untended Land Crumbles 7 29.0 71.43% -0.026 2.0

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 120 22.5% 28.54 98.33% 0.849 1.6086 0.57
B 95 25.26% 27.46 95.79% 0.021 0.6971 0.058
C 116 22.41% 27.33 93.97% 0.107 0.6324 0.117
D 86 31.4% 26.86 91.86% 0.386 1.113 -0.049
E 87 37.93% 27.07 78.16% -0.625 -0.0651 0.202
F 87 24.14% 28.51 94.25% 0.508 1.1976 0.246
G 76 43.42% 26.59 71.05% -1.162 -0.4662 -0.579
H 70 22.86% 27.73 92.86% 0.882 1.543 -0.174
East 44 38.64% 31.66 59.09% -0.293 0.3859
Northeast 33 36.36% 30.39 51.52% -0.605 -0.0352
Northwest 22 36.36% 29.64 54.55% 0.108 0.9502
Southeast 31 45.16% 28.52 45.16% -0.328 0.1983
Southwest 19 42.11% 25.89 42.11% -0.173 0.7687
West 30 36.67% 30.63 60.0% 0.119 1.1194

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 26.8 100.0% 0.235 0.4752
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 6.67% 36.87 100.0% 0.128 -0.2404
Start of Game Growth 15 6.67% 36.87 100.0% 0.128 -0.4941
Unlimited Undo 17 5.88% 33.24 100.0% 0.142 -0.4888
Using Tokens but Not Events 36 13.89% 25.58 100.0% 0.221 0.2646

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36 22.62 50.0%
II 174 31.05 85.63%
III 122 34.62 91.8%
IV 51 37.86 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.006 Win Model: -0.304
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 320 29.38% 27.24 88.75%
3 36 22.22% 28.89 83.33%
4 9 33.33% 35.22 88.89%
5 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
6 17 41.18% 25.47 41.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 149
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 50
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 19
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)