Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 50.0% 32.5 1.894 83.33% 0.097 0.6055
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 50.0% 39.67 -0.539 83.33% -0.471 -0.0677
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 25.0% 46.75 8.527 100.0% 0.016 1.194
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 56.0 9.212 100.0% 0.027 1.4521
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 41.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 60.0% 24.2 0.0 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 25.0% 25.5 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 6 16.67% 45.5 4.352 100.0% 0.044 0.2332
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4 50.0% 59.5 7.464 100.0% 0.019 0.3851
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 44.5 1.386 50.0% -0.67 0.7763
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 40.0% 28.4 0.184 80.0% -0.233 0.3242
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 3.278 100.0% 0.077 0.7551
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 50.5 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 56.0 10.415 100.0% 0.175 1.6425
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 35.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 30.0 -0.703 66.67% 0.044 1.1163
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 42.11% 26.26 -0.539 15.79% -0.471 1.6437
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 53.5 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 28.0 -2.632 0.0% -0.633 1.4323
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2 0.0% 29.5 1.038 0.0% -0.745 1.4294
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 14 21.43% 26.5 0.0 92.86%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 33.33% 31.56 -0.545 77.78% -0.176 0.7146
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 20.0% 41.2 3.783 100.0% 0.04 1.2422
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 60.0% 33.4 6.527 60.0% 0.168 1.0271
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 50.0% 60.25 14.088 100.0% 0.089 1.3268
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 7 42.86% 66.14 21.672 85.71% 0.145 1.7027
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 50.0% 38.5 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 42.86% 34.57 2.311 85.71% 0.103 0.3832
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 100.0% 44.0 4.331 100.0% 0.139 0.5907
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 23 100.0% 24.26 -0.43 8.7% -1.135 0.0231
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 37.75 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 43.0 4.926 100.0% 0.097 0.8999
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 33.0 1.996 100.0% 0.032 0.4685
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 50.0 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 2 0.0 30.0 100.0%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 146 39.04 27.79 80.82% -0.53 -0.0115 -0.22
2 Coastline 59 25.42 27.07 91.53% -0.003 0.1978 -0.039
2 Fragment 2 0.0 29.5 100.0% 0.023 0.3216
2 Heart 8 0.0 24.88 100.0%
2 Opposite Shores 107 22.43 25.56 94.39% 0.539 1.0779
2 Thematic 28 28.57 39.11 92.86% 0.209 0.9914
2 Top to Top 12 8.33 28.33 100.0% 0.124 0.2515
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 35 14.29 28.2 88.57% -0.568 -0.2636 0.119
3 Thematic 10 40.0 35.5 50.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 4 75.0 27.75 75.0% 0.081 0.1844
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6 16.67 32.33 100.0% 0.145 0.223
5 Other 2 100.0 57.5 100.0% 0.139 -0.3773 0.065
6 Archipelago 1 0.0 26.0 100.0% 0.057 -0.0898
6 Thematic 14 42.86 22.93 28.57%
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 37.33 100.0% 0.065
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0% -0.268 -0.1194

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8 28.25 75.0% -0.048 1.9231 0.065
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 32.5 40.0% -0.021 1.7572 0.347
All Things Weaken 12 31.83 58.33% -0.603 1.4461 0.152
Back Against the Wall 10 29.9 50.0% -0.176 1.7636 0.065
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 22.36 63.64% -0.042 2.0862
Downward Spiral 8 28.63 75.0% -0.077 1.8837
Erosion of Will 8 20.63 75.0% -0.036 2.0453
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 27.71 100.0% 0.07 0.5717
Memory Fades to Dust 9 25.67 55.56% -0.081 2.0604
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 20.88 62.5% -0.386 1.5943
Promising Farmlands 6 31.5 66.67% 0.109 2.1311
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 32.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 7 19.0 28.57% -0.472 1.5877
Unnatural Proliferation 11 21.0 63.64% 0.227 2.1843
Untended Land Crumbles 10 26.4 50.0% -0.757 1.2761 -0.25

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 138 23.19% 28.94 96.38% 0.039 0.7752 0.748
B 117 25.64% 28.09 93.16% -0.119 0.5779 -0.066
C 141 21.99% 27.99 91.49% -0.346 0.1237 -0.059
D 98 31.63% 26.78 90.82% 0.368 1.0778 0.038
E 100 39.0% 27.13 77.0% -0.631 -0.0867 0.47
F 97 22.68% 28.61 93.81% 0.714 1.3753 0.287
G 86 45.35% 26.64 68.6% -1.389 -0.7579 -0.45
H 81 20.99% 27.73 91.36% -0.072 0.5928 -0.414
East 51 39.22% 32.65 64.71% 0.198 0.8598
Northeast 35 37.14% 30.4 54.29% 0.079 0.7389
Northwest 24 37.5% 29.71 58.33% 0.079 0.6894
Southeast 35 45.71% 30.06 51.43% 0.166 0.6968
Southwest 22 40.91% 28.59 50.0% 0.093 1.0616
West 36 36.11% 32.22 66.67% 0.126 0.9313

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 26.8 100.0% 0.052 0.2791
Skip Initial Invader Actions 16 6.25% 36.81 100.0% 0.051 -0.9296
Start of Game Growth 17 11.76% 37.76 100.0% 0.083 -0.3736
Unlimited Undo 21 9.52% 35.57 100.0% 0.142 -0.4095
Using Tokens but Not Events 49 10.2% 28.51 100.0% 0.567 0.7224 0.119

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 38 22.65 50.0%
II 202 31.08 84.65%
III 145 34.66 91.72%
IV 57 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.131 Win Model: -0.501
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 365 28.77% 27.93 88.77%
3 45 22.22% 29.0 80.0%
4 12 41.67% 35.25 91.67%
5 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
6 19 42.11% 24.79 42.11%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 133
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 171
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 56
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 23
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 34

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)