Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 15 33.33% 22.87 2.98 60.0% 0.136 0.516
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 19 15.79% 27.32 8.166 63.16% 0.049 0.3261
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 19 31.58% 30.32 -1.809 57.89% -0.678 0.0815
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 42.86% 53.71 7.625 85.71% 0.07 1.1893
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 14.29% 19.71 0.0 28.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 55.57 7.495 57.14% -0.413 1.5353
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 18 38.89% 22.39 1.745 66.67% 0.02 0.2262
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 23.08% 25.27 0.624 61.54% -0.422 -0.4124
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 26 7.69% 34.23 3.622 80.77% 0.323 0.3506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 25.0% 37.88 1.075 62.5% -0.287 0.0007
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8 25.0% 33.25 -5.83 62.5% -0.449 -0.1522
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 33.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 45.0 1.801 54.55% -0.401 0.9927
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 29.41% 23.65 4.887 70.59% 0.468 0.792
The Kingdom of England 1 3 14 7.14% 17.93 -8.445 35.71% -1.061 -0.7663
The Kingdom of England 2 4 23 17.39% 22.57 -6.046 47.83% -0.316 0.4079
The Kingdom of England 3 6 11 45.45% 26.73 -2.758 36.36% -0.365 0.8708
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 27.78% 44.5 5.315 61.11% -0.229 0.9521
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 -4.674 0.0% -0.335 1.2394
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10 30.0% 42.0 0.0 30.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 17 17.65% 18.29 -0.959 41.18% -0.185 0.2969
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 23 34.78% 19.96 -5.722 30.43% -1.214 -0.3778
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 44 36.36% 28.36 -1.521 29.55% -0.177 0.8539
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 9 77.78% 43.78 3.134 66.67% -0.496 0.9092
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 57.14% 19.43 2.315 14.29% -0.94 0.4815
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 28.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13 53.85% 42.08 7.876 30.77% -0.824 0.5629
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 30 16.67% 24.77 3.283 83.33% 0.643 0.9286
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 25 32.0% 21.32 -4.636 52.0% -0.71 -0.2303
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 17 11.76% 31.18 9.442 70.59% 0.196 0.4732
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 41.67% 33.83 0.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 25.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 12 33.33% 53.83 9.954 75.0% 0.055 0.8638
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 20 60.0% 49.4 15.925 60.0% 0.201 1.2212
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 12 8.33% 19.5 -3.219 66.67% -0.325 -0.1755
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 33.33% 30.5 4.338 83.33% 0.154 0.2817
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 30.0% 26.05 2.224 65.0% 0.229 0.427
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 14.0 -7.265 30.77% -1.089 -0.6713
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 0.0% 0.0 -9.553 0.0% -0.705 -0.0011
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 27.0 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 92.86% 29.75 13.149 21.43% 0.283 1.2739
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 18.18% 23.0 -1.091 63.64% -0.102 -0.0028
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 12 16.67% 21.42 -0.887 50.0% -0.347 0.6013
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 10.0% 19.6 0.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 0.0% 33.6 -5.186 60.0% -0.187 0.9233
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 75.0% 14.25 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 10.33 -2.347 0.0% -0.635 1.032
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 12 41.67 24.08 75.0% -0.216 0.2154
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 406 28.08 25.47 72.91% -0.571 -0.5747 -0.114
2 Coastline 143 21.68 23.85 84.62% -0.349 -0.2933 0.295
2 Fragment 14 28.57 25.14 57.14% 0.624 0.3574
2 Heart 12 8.33 30.33 100.0% 0.373
2 Opposite Shores 223 21.08 24.52 91.03% 0.19 0.2047 -0.611
2 Thematic 101 22.77 25.95 63.37% -0.078 0.119 -0.175
2 Top to Top 31 25.81 26.39 83.87% -0.415 -0.5126 -0.27
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Other 4 25.0 24.0 100.0% 0.536 0.1437
3 Round (Default) 122 23.77 31.51 68.85% 0.263 -0.0728 0.059
3 Thematic 24 20.83 18.58 29.17% -0.307 -0.591 -0.044
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 33.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 7 42.86 15.86 42.86% -0.079 -0.1585 -0.084
4 Trapezoid (Default) 25 37.5 31.76 80.0% -0.006 -0.1625 -0.046
5 Other 10 30.0 15.5 30.0% -0.509 -1.5837 0.118
5 Thematic 3 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.015 -0.0219 -0.037
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 26 34.62 20.42 30.77% -0.105 0.5439 -0.013
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 23.08 21.85 53.85% 0.064 -0.2701 0.099
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 3 33.33 7.0 0.0% -0.16

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 28.06 58.82% -0.746 -0.6165 0.291
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 32.38 52.38% 0.386
All Things Weaken 23 31.09 65.22% 0.242 0.5498 0.099
Attenuated Essence 5 33.0 80.0%
Back Against the Wall 17 28.35 52.94% -0.382
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8 36.0 87.5% 0.523 0.7089 0.393
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 25.78 66.67% -0.241 -0.1704 -0.395
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 20.6 73.33%
Downward Spiral 23 33.87 73.91% -0.432 -0.2662 0.696
Erosion of Will 17 20.71 70.59% 0.16 0.3747
Intensifying Exploitation 5 17.2 20.0% -0.236 0.005
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14 30.71 85.71% -0.515 -1.096 -0.129
Memory Fades to Dust 16 19.56 50.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 29.89 68.42% 0.024 0.1854 0.382
Promising Farmlands 14 35.36 71.43% 0.487 0.7828 0.555
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 29.0 60.0% -0.32 -0.2321 0.265
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 26.13 87.5%
The Border of Life and Death 3 33.33 66.67% 0.166 -0.3132
Thriving Communities 17 24.59 58.82% 0.371 0.6709
Thriving Crops 3 46.33 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 19 32.58 73.68% 0.206 0.3755 0.471
Untended Land Crumbles 14 31.93 64.29% -0.223

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 392 22.76% 26.74 80.61% -0.025 1.1174 1.105
B 344 22.74% 26.26 77.62% -0.19 0.8646 0.195
C 332 24.1% 25.69 78.92% 0.456 1.3438 0.595
D 280 26.52% 25.11 76.43% 0.256 1.31 -0.29
E 272 28.68% 26.0 68.38% 0.007 0.9109 0.149
F 257 25.68% 27.51 76.26% 0.315 1.3188 0.739
G 247 32.93% 26.13 67.61% 0.883 1.8508 0.184
H 236 21.61% 22.18 70.76% -0.671 0.3219 -0.904
East 135 27.41% 22.94 50.37% -0.479 0.5088 -0.177
Northeast 81 28.4% 22.0 43.21% -0.729 0.2209 -0.191
Northwest 71 22.54% 20.58 45.07% -0.04 1.0011 -0.272
Southeast 70 31.43% 24.0 48.57% 0.392 1.3099 -0.049
Southwest 63 25.4% 19.44 41.27% -0.69 0.7665 -0.094
West 126 22.22% 21.28 49.21% -0.551 0.5557 -0.295

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 11.11% 17.89 66.67% -0.325 0.1694 -0.084
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 12.5% 45.83 79.17% 0.307 -0.3154 0.618
Start of Game Growth 53 13.21% 42.51 73.58% -0.35 -0.7628 0.407
Unlimited Undo 57 3.57% 23.21 63.16% -0.632 -0.7267
Using Tokens but Not Events 124 8.94% 21.63 75.0% -0.28 -0.2048 -0.13

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 266 16.77 14.66%
II 426 30.59 86.38%
III 367 34.74 94.01%
IV 128 38.3 99.22%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.302 Win Model: -0.428
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 957 24.76% 25.01 77.64%
3 143 25.87% 31.22 68.53%
4 31 26.67% 23.23 64.52%
5 10 20.0% 8.3 20.0%
6 46 30.43% 19.0 34.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 39
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 344
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 368
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 126
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 189
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 53
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 58
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)