Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 30.25 1.045 75.0% -0.34 0.211
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 40.5 4.625 100.0% 0.192 1.0698
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 46.5 8.677 100.0% 0.095 1.2147
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 60.0 16.649 100.0% 0.005 1.5925
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 75.0% 23.0 -2.397 75.0% -0.417 -0.173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 33.33% 24.0 -0.572 66.67% -0.331 -0.4576
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 47.0 6.829 100.0% 0.088 0.2035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2 50.0% 63.0 14.848 100.0% 0.106 0.4808
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 50.5 9.002 100.0% 0.12 1.2466
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 35.0 2.127 100.0% 0.043 0.9455
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 28.5 -0.979 50.0% -0.27 0.6199
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 37.5% 27.25 1.521 25.0% -0.61 1.7927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 53.5 13.012 100.0% 0.056 2.4397
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 29.0 1.535 0.0% -0.664 1.7029
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 12 25.0% 25.92 -0.002 91.67% 0.323 0.1992
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 25.0% 31.0 2.412 75.0% -0.17 0.6752
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 33.33% 38.33 6.334 100.0% 0.125 0.9536
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 100.0% 15.0 -3.869 0.0% -1.043 -0.173
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 51.0 8.877 100.0% 0.006 1.241
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 66.67% 61.33 14.615 100.0% 0.126 1.5575
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 50.0% 62.0 15.153 75.0% -0.366 1.3328
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 33.0 3.784 100.0% 0.155 -0.068
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 25.0% 32.75 3.715 75.0% 0.183 0.6359
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 45.0 9.807 100.0% 0.06 0.3703
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 100.0% 18.0 -3.414 0.0% -0.632 0.5597
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 40.67 4.373 100.0% 0.121 0.0642
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 18.0 -2.26 0.0% -0.939 0.4465

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 2 0.0 30.0 100.0% 0.042 1.026
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 77 29.87 28.91 93.51% -0.112 0.6399 0.024
2 Coastline 38 15.79 25.79 92.11% -0.255 0.3475 -0.199
2 Heart 5 0.0 23.4 100.0% 0.097 0.6358
2 Opposite Shores 72 23.61 25.65 94.44% -0.187 0.8055
2 Thematic 13 30.77 34.38 84.62% 0.042 0.7402
2 Top to Top 6 16.67 25.17 100.0% 0.082 0.5921
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0% 0.013 -0.77
3 Round (Default) 15 20.0 23.93 93.33% -0.009 0.5859
3 Thematic 2 50.0 45.5 100.0% 0.155 0.1176
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0% 0.062 0.6242
4 Thematic 2 50.0 24.0 50.0% -0.013 0.5158
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2 50.0 27.5 100.0% 0.085 0.0577
5 Other 1 100.0 72.0 100.0% 0.039 0.2076 0.093
6 Thematic 8 50.0 23.5 25.0% -0.445 -0.7236
6 Two Centers (Default) 3 33.33 37.33 100.0% 0.229 0.1347 0.074

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5 27.8 80.0% -0.397 1.506 0.093
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3 20.67 33.33% -0.923 0.8069
All Things Weaken 6 37.17 83.33% -0.582 1.4037 0.23
Back Against the Wall 5 37.8 80.0% -0.319 1.4978 0.074
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 20.6 60.0% -0.627 1.4239
Downward Spiral 4 26.25 75.0% -0.074 1.9193
Erosion of Will 5 17.0 80.0% -0.545 1.5378
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 24.25 100.0% 0.166 0.6071
Memory Fades to Dust 5 29.2 60.0% -0.733 1.3511
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 23.8 60.0% -0.591 1.3469
Promising Farmlands 3 34.33 100.0% 0.069 2.1144
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 3 24.0 100.0% 0.098 0.5227
Thriving Communities 1 4.0 0.0% -0.63 1.354
Unnatural Proliferation 8 18.13 62.5% -0.792 1.1724
Untended Land Crumbles 2 39.0 100.0% 0.033 2.0264

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 88 22.73% 27.67 97.73% 0.926 1.7237 0.397
B 67 25.37% 27.6 97.01% 0.739 1.4824 0.074
C 78 23.08% 27.21 93.59% 0.054 0.6222 0.167
D 53 33.96% 26.43 88.68% -0.455 0.3407 -0.131
E 51 21.57% 28.08 98.04% 0.735 1.3822 0.323
F 65 24.62% 28.34 93.85% 0.012 0.7363 0.167
G 38 26.32% 29.74 94.74% 0.361 1.0927 -0.405
H 48 25.0% 27.88 89.58% -0.245 0.467 -0.032
East 24 41.67% 30.83 62.5% -0.523 0.2453
Northeast 18 44.44% 31.44 61.11% 0.038 0.898
Northwest 12 41.67% 28.83 50.0% -0.154 0.9222
Southeast 13 53.85% 25.0 38.46% -0.75 -0.044
Southwest 11 45.45% 24.55 36.36% -0.403 0.7226
West 18 38.89% 29.11 55.56% -0.381 0.5729

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.094 0.2687
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11 9.09% 38.18 100.0% 0.267 0.1248
Start of Game Growth 11 9.09% 38.18 100.0% 0.267 -0.4934
Unlimited Undo 12 8.33% 34.08 100.0% 0.334 -0.2701
Using Tokens but Not Events 27 11.11% 26.78 100.0% 0.692 0.5352

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 20 22.56 65.0%
II 125 30.98 91.2%
III 71 34.53 94.37%
IV 32 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.085 Win Model: -0.243
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 213 23.94% 27.36 93.43%
3 18 27.78% 25.94 94.44%
4 6 50.0% 36.83 83.33%
6 11 45.45% 27.27 45.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 67
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 114
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 32
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)