Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 8 50.0% 28.63 -9.856 75.0% -0.524 -0.2607
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 14 21.43% 27.86 -1.122 64.29% -0.161 0.1857
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 30.77% 38.62 5.784 76.92% 0.111 0.9403
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 53.0 12.95 100.0% 0.2 1.191
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 27.33 -10.867 33.33% -0.655 0.6651
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 62.0 10.396 100.0% 0.159 2.1717
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 10 40.0% 24.1 5.485 80.0% 0.345 0.4304
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 16 31.25% 30.63 3.394 75.0% 0.422 0.3262
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 11.11% 39.78 7.556 88.89% 0.11 0.099
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 33.33% 37.0 -0.273 66.67% -0.325 -0.1278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5 40.0% 42.4 12.311 80.0% 0.719 0.9216
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 66.0 23.031 100.0% 0.289 0.8503
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 83.33% 53.17 11.17 66.67% 0.092 1.4301
The Kingdom of England 0 1 11 27.27% 20.91 -4.668 63.64% -0.507 -0.2408
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 0.0% 19.17 -0.879 33.33% -0.467 -0.2837
The Kingdom of England 2 4 15 13.33% 24.73 -0.485 53.33% -0.552 0.1843
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 22.0 -6.788 33.33% -0.688 0.4513
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8 50.0% 48.25 4.536 87.5% -0.153 0.8934
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -13.475 0.0% -0.495 1.1457
The Kingdom of England 6 11 9 22.22% 43.89 2.47 33.33% -0.818 1.2236
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 9 11.11% 17.22 -2.66 44.44% -0.466 -0.0637
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 8 37.5% 20.63 -3.208 50.0% -0.188 0.7672
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 39 35.9% 29.23 1.08 28.21% -0.644 0.4296
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6 83.33% 51.0 8.904 83.33% 0.198 1.486
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.718 0.0% -0.478 0.9236
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 28.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 33.0 2.491 25.0% -0.433 0.9112
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 20 15.0% 26.45 3.769 90.0% 0.751 0.7677
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 15 26.67% 23.33 -2.191 60.0% -0.253 0.1769
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 15 6.67% 32.6 -1.693 73.33% -0.705 -0.2642
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 37.5% 33.13 -6.615 62.5% -0.218 0.168
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 25.5 -7.01 50.0% -0.361 0.2579
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 66.67% 59.17 12.238 100.0% 0.243 1.0269
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 45.45% 51.64 -9.041 63.64% -1.256 0.0192
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 25.0% 26.0 2.532 100.0% 0.536 0.7157
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 50.0% 32.83 -7.659 83.33% -0.257 -0.2305
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 33.33% 30.17 2.753 75.0% 0.137 0.3602
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 60.0% 35.2 -3.027 80.0% -0.304 0.1237
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 54.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 92.31% 26.15 7.376 15.38% -0.19 0.697
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 0.0% 23.11 -6.204 66.67% -0.647 -0.5261
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 6 0.0% 22.33 -1.734 50.0% -0.42 0.2209
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 20.0% 14.6 -2.109 40.0% -0.362 0.0641
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 56.0 18.663 100.0% 0.304 1.419
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 100.0% 19.0 -2.527 0.0% -0.575 0.3294
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.252 0.0% -0.216 1.2798
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 0.0% 0.0 -8.94 0.0% -0.825 1.0158

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
2 Archipelago 6 50.0 24.67 83.33% -0.476 -0.372
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 278 31.29 27.05 78.06% -0.322 -0.2398 -0.205
2 Coastline 92 25.0 25.39 86.96% -0.19 -0.3445 0.024
2 Fragment 5 0.0 27.6 100.0% 0.271 0.0216
2 Heart 12 8.33 30.33 100.0% 0.572 0.2852 0.25
2 Opposite Shores 148 22.3 24.5 92.57% 0.409 0.4317 -0.18
2 Thematic 55 21.82 30.15 70.91% -0.462 -0.0583 -0.181
2 Top to Top 18 16.67 30.0 100.0% 0.406 0.2397
3 Coastline 1 100.0 17.0 100.0%
3 Other 2 0.0 25.0 100.0% 0.431 0.9719
3 Round (Default) 70 25.71 32.63 77.14% -0.166 -0.2814 0.211
3 Thematic 15 26.67 26.93 40.0% -0.614 -0.5333 -0.066
4 Leaf 1 0.0 46.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 5 60.0 22.2 60.0% -0.057 -0.3188
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15 21.43 25.67 80.0% 0.008 -0.0744 -0.327
5 Other 7 28.57 19.29 42.86% -0.513 -0.7976 0.095
5 Thematic 2 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.313 -0.4067 -0.053
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 13.0 50.0% -0.143 0.008
6 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
6 Thematic 24 37.5 20.63 29.17% 0.427 0.848 -0.029
6 Two Centers (Default) 8 25.0 28.13 75.0% 0.325 0.4296 0.142
7 Archipelago 1 100.0 12.0 0.0%
7 Other 2 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.478 -1.0906 -0.205

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 12 25.0 75.0% 0.232 0.4748 0.232
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 35.2 60.0% 0.21 0.1329 0.494
All Things Weaken 18 29.83 55.56% -0.8 -0.4076 0.068
Attenuated Essence 4 29.0 75.0% -0.042 0.0648
Back Against the Wall 15 29.4 53.33% -0.273 -0.2155 -0.176
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 29.67 66.67% 0.034 0.2358
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 28.0 75.0% -0.506 -0.2953
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 21.0 71.43% 0.542 0.966
Downward Spiral 16 38.69 87.5% 0.519 0.7549 0.733
Erosion of Will 9 20.0 77.78% 0.312 0.6211
Intensifying Exploitation 1 17.0 0.0% -0.228 0.0591
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 34.5 100.0% 0.142 -0.3516 0.234
Memory Fades to Dust 12 21.08 50.0% -0.372 -0.036
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 33.92 75.0% 0.357 0.5773 0.363
Promising Farmlands 8 26.75 50.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 40.67 100.0% 0.21 0.2606 0.25
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0% 0.162 0.5607
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 30.17 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 29.0 100.0% 0.124 -0.2117
Thriving Communities 12 21.25 50.0% 0.164 0.5266
Thriving Crops 3 46.33 100.0% 0.348 0.1503
Unnatural Proliferation 14 25.5 71.43% 0.254 0.4695
Untended Land Crumbles 12 31.0 58.33% 0.099 0.3808 -0.253

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 243 22.73% 27.49 85.6% 0.302 1.0424 0.951
B 227 23.01% 28.13 83.7% -0.087 0.6389 0.342
C 225 24.0% 26.56 84.0% 0.352 0.9343 0.53
D 188 28.34% 25.03 80.85% -0.678 0.0334 -0.427
E 175 32.57% 26.0 73.71% 0.16 0.7256 -0.112
F 171 23.98% 27.97 82.46% -0.07 0.6005 0.571
G 159 37.34% 26.92 69.81% 0.352 1.004 0.142
H 148 18.92% 24.82 80.41% -0.434 0.1369 -0.844
East 89 29.21% 25.27 51.69% -0.374 0.1644 -0.148
Northeast 55 34.55% 24.82 45.45% -0.766 -0.1311 -0.263
Northwest 48 29.17% 23.58 47.92% -0.209 0.6002 -0.21
Southeast 55 34.55% 26.2 47.27% 0.562 1.2677 -0.082
Southwest 42 30.95% 22.81 40.48% -0.31 0.68 -0.148
West 77 24.68% 24.04 50.65% -0.893 0.0107 -0.148

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.291 1.067
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 26.8 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 26 3.85% 39.96 84.62% 0.348 -0.2693 0.012
Start of Game Growth 28 7.14% 39.0 82.14% 0.073 -0.2753 -0.14
Unlimited Undo 39 5.26% 27.92 74.36% -0.581 -0.5874
Using Tokens but Not Events 88 9.2% 24.39 81.82% -0.497 -0.5069 -0.239

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 134 20.4 20.9%
II 297 31.01 86.87%
III 252 34.76 93.65%
IV 87 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.463 Win Model: -0.342
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
2 621 26.41% 26.65 83.09%
3 83 26.51% 30.93 73.49%
4 23 27.27% 25.22 69.57%
5 6 16.67% 10.5 33.33%
6 37 32.43% 20.49 37.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 236
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 258
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 86
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 80
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 31
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 44
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)